textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure will pass south of Nova Scotia this morning, followed by high pressure building from the west this afternoon. The high will weaken tonight into Thursday morning. A cold front will pass through Thursday afternoon, followed quickly by another strong high pressure system building from the west Thursday night into Friday. The high will pass east Friday night, then low pressure passing off the southern Mid Atlantic coast will skirt the area Friday night into Saturday. Weak high pressure will return Saturday night into Sunday, followed by another cold frontal passage Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Expect mostly sunny skies through the day, with diminishing NW winds backing W this afternoon as high pressure builds in. Temps should reach the lower 40s in the NYC metro area and along the coast, and the upper 20s inland.

Tonight should be mostly clear to partly cloudy for most of the area, but areas well inland NW of NYC may see a period of mostly cloudy skies via WAA aloft well ahead of an approaching cold front. Low temps should be achieved by midnight, then as weak WSW flow/WAA commence temps may level off overnight, with lows from the lower 30s in NYC to the 20s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Cold frontal passage will usher in a quick shot of very cold air Thursday night into Friday.

* Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with some light snow/rain Friday night.

NBM brings the cold front through dry Thu afternoon, but NAM guidance shows some CAPE and a snow squall parameter favorable for at least some widely sct snow showers inland, where high temps will be 35-40, and rain/snow showers for the NYC metro area and coastal sections, where highs will be in the lower 40s.

A gusty NW flow will usher in very cold air for Thu night into Fri, with low temps from the lower 20s in NYC, to the teens most elsewhere, to some single digits well inland, with wind chills as low as the single digits inland and the teens elsewhere. Temps may have a hard time rising above freezing in the NYC metro area and coastal sections on Fri, and it should remain quite cold inland, with highs only 25-30. Record low temps for BDR/LGA/JFK, and record low maximum temps for all climate sites except NYC, may be in jeopardy on Friday. See the Climate section for current records.

As the high slides east Fri night, the precip shield with weak low pressure passing well south off the Mid Atlantic coast may skirt the area. Forecast carries 40 PoP for Long Island, 30 PoP most elsewhere, and it may remain completely dry in Orange County with only 20 PoP. Any snow amts would be on the light side, with no more than a coating mainly for NYC metro/Long Island.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Points:

* Precip shield with low pressure passing well to the south may still be skirting the area Saturday morning.

* Below normal temperatures expected, running as much as 10-15 degrees below normal.

By Saturday morning, the low will be passing the area well to the south, but still may be able to continue to bring precip through the late morning. Thermal profiles supportive of light snow into Saturday morning, then a transition to a light rain/snow mix for interior SE CT and all rain across ern Long Island and coastal SE CT for late morning/early afternoon.

Cold frontal passage Sunday night as a closed low swings across ern Canada will usher in yet another very cold air mass for early next week, with lows in the teens/20s and highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s for Monday. This shot of cold air looks to be longer lasting than the one for Thu night/Fri of this week.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: VFR. W to WNW winds G20-30kt in the afternoon/evening. Potential for afternoon rain/snow shower activity with a cold frontal passage.

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of the NYC metros.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA remains in effect for all waters until 6 AM, with NW winds gusting to 25-30 kt. Seas 5-7 ft (highest east) should continue on the ocean waters through the morning, then E of Fire Island Inlet into this afternoon/evening.

Seas 5+ ft should continue on the ern ocean waters tonight, then spread to all ocean waters daytime Thu ahead of a cold front, along with gusts up to 25 kt. After fropa in the afternoon, expect gales on the ern ocean waters from l;ate Thu afternoon into Thu evening, and a Gale Watch has been issued. A few gusts up to 35 kt may also occur on the non ocean waters during this time. Ocean seas should build to 5-8 ft by thu evening, and up to 5 ft on the central/ern Sound.

Winds and seas quickly ramp down late Thu night, with sub-SCA cond on all waters by daytime Fri and continuing through the weekend.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Surge guidance predicts water levels to reach minor flood thresholds in spots on the tidal waters of NE NJ. This does not make sense given ongoing NW flow, but it is possible that water levels could recover as winds relax. Have not issued any statement due to low confidence in this scenario.

Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport and Stamford tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as low pressure passes well south.

CLIMATE

Record low temps for KBDR/KLGA/KJFK, and record low maximum temps for all climate sites except KNYC, may be in jeopardy on Friday December 5th.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935 KBDR: 17/1989 KNYC: 11/1926 KLGA: 21/1942 KJFK: 20/1966 KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002 KBDR: 28/2002 KNYC: 22/1886 KLGA: 32/2002 KJFK: 33/2007 KISP: 30/2002

EQUIPMENT

KOKX radar is out of service.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ355.