textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Rip Current Statement has been issued for Saturday due to a high risk for rip currents. Small Craft Advisories have been extended and expanded.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool, breezy and wet for the Memorial Day weekend. This will be a prolonged soaking rain. Primary threat will be areas of minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

2) High risk of rip current Saturday and Sunday, possibly into Monday. High surf potential for Saturday Night into Sunday with minor beach erosion and flooding possible during the times of high tide Sun aft and night.

3) More rain chances mid to late next week with a few dry breaks.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Global guidance is showing the potential for a shot of rain on Wednesday. However, the forecast remains dry during the time. Should this become more of the consensus, rain will likely need to be added in subsequent forecasts, but for the time have stayed with the dry NBM solution.

An upper-low/trough will drop southeast across Quebec Wednesday with developing surface low pressure along it. The system appears progressive, so even if there is some rain on Wednesday, dry weather should return for the end of next week. However, the 12Z ECMWF remains unsettled with disturbances moving across the area in the NW flow aloft. This could also mean cooler. Uncertainty with this feature remains with regards to timing, which still varies by 12 to 18 hours. Its also possible the low may pass too far to the north, which would only give us a quick passing chance of a shower rather than persistent rainfall.

Prior to the low, temperatures look to warm early in the week. Tuesday looks dry with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Wednesday has the potential to reach the low to mid 80s, but ultimately that will all be dependent on the location and timing of the expected low pressure system.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday Afternoon: Conditions will gradually lower to MVFR, then IFR during the late afternoon and evening hours. KGON will take much longer and MVFR conditions may not develop until Saturday night. E-NE wind gusts increase to 20-30 kt overnight Saturday. Highest gusts will be at the coastal terminals.

Sunday: IFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 20-30 kt, mainly for metro and coastal terminals.

Monday: Chance of MVFR or lower with showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds likely subside below SCA o the ocean for a period late this afternoon into tonight, before increasing to SCA level on all waters Saturday morning. However, waves continue to climb into tonight on ocean waters, so a SCA will remain up through tonight across the western two ocean zones.

A period of SCA winds are likely across all waters late Saturday through a large portion of Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will be hoisted on all waters, as a result. Near-gale force gusts also appear possible late Saturday night into Sunday on ocean waters, especially outer ocean waters. Seas on the ocean will continue to build to 10-12 Sat Night into Sun.

Winds will gradually subside below SCA levels late Sunday and Sunday night, but ocean seas will likely remain elevated through Monday in residual SE swell.

Monday night, waves drop below SCA-levels. We'll remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-340. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ335. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ338-345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ353-355.