textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat advisory cancelled. Smoke forecast extended through Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot but drier conditions expected on Thursday behind weak frontal passage. Periods of smoky conditions likely to persist through at least Thursday night.

2) Increased shower and thunderstorm chances expected at times this weekend, with continuing uncertainty on exact timing.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Conditions will become more unsettled for the weekend into early next week as a couple of fronts associated with an upper trough swinging across Ontario and Quebec. There's still plenty of model differences in potential solutions, particularly the timing of frontal passages and precipitation. However, moisture looks to increase on southwest flow, with PW potentially exceeding 2 inches. There are also indications of deep warm cloud depths of 12+ kft, allowing for efficient rainfall processes. Note that the Day 4 ERO from WPC shows a broad Marginal Risk area for much of southern New England westward through the southern Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Nothing's set in stone at this point since we're still a few days out, but it will bear watching as the weekend draws closer.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: Sub VFR possible early in smoke. VFR prevails towards early Friday AM.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm possible.

Monday: VFR.

MARINE

SCA cond possible on all ocean waters late day Sat, with gusts up to 25 kt. These conditions should continue into Sat night E of Fire Island Inlet while seas also build to 5 ft. These hazardous seas should linger into Sunday.

Rip Currents:

A moderate rip current risk has been forecast for Thu and Fri, as swells and winds continue to weaken relative to those of Wed and its attendant high risk, and with both days featuring some onshore flow, with SW flow 10-15 kt on Thu and S around 10 kt on Fri.

Outlook: A high rip current risk appears likely for for late day Sat as S flow increases to 15-20 kt, with seas building to 4-5 ft and water levels ebbing toward a late afternoon low tide. The high risk could continue into Sunday and Monday as seas remain elevated.

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures for Wed July 15: KEWR: 82/1995 KBDR: 76/2013 KNYC: 84/1995 KLGA: 83/1995 KJFK: 79/1995 KISP: 77/1995

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until noon EDT Thursday for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...None.