textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of fog and black ice still possible for parts of the area tonight.

2) Snow showers expected on Sunday.

3) Multiple waves of low pressure will move through the area Tuesday through the start of next weekend. Expect a prolonged period of wet and mostly cloudy conditions with above normal temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The first chance of precipitation next week comes on Tuesday. As Arctic high pressure shifts to the east, a wave of low pressure looks to pass through. Because of the cold air in place Tuesday morning, this precipitation likely starts off as snow across the interior with a snow or rain/snow mix at the coast. We will quickly warm up so through the day the area will gradually transition to all plain rain. There are still some timing differences with just how early the precipitation will start and this will end up affecting p-types and any sort of accumulation. At this time, under an inch of snow expected. Even the NBM 4.3 and 5.0 90th percentiles for snow accum show less than an inch for much of the area with the exception of the Lower Hudson Valley where it shows a few inches of accumulation.

Once the Arctic airmass shifts east, a warming trend will begin, with above normal temperatures expected by Wednesday. Timing and location differences with additional waves of low pressure continue in the latest guidance. While prolonged wet conditions are expected, the period will not be a washout by any means. There are chances of rain each day, but this is largely due to the spread in guidance. From Tuesday through Saturday the latest NBM has a total of about 0.75 to 1.00 inches of QPF.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday afternoon: MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys in light snow, ending west to east 18Z to 21Z. Becoming VFR. N/NW winds G15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening south to north. S wind G15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday - Thursday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain. Thursday S wind G15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-advisory conditions expected for the most part through Tuesday. Conditions may get close for a time on the ocean late Sunday night, with N flow gusting over 20 kt and seas up to 4 ft. Light freezing spray expected on the ocean waters Sunday night into Monday morning as well.

There are several weak waves of low pressure that will pass through, with winds and seas on the ocean getting close to SCA criteria Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then again at the end of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.