textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably warm through Thursday.

2) Moderate to heavy rainfall remains increasingly likely Thursday night into Friday night from NYC and points east.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A highly amplified upper flow featuring the interaction of multiple streams of energy will become the major player as an upper trough undergoes amplification approaching the eastern seaboard at the end of the week. A weak cold front associated with the upper trough will approach the area on Thursday, preceded by some warm advection showers, but mainly north and west of the NYC metro. As the front works across from Thu night into Friday, deep layer lift develops due to the coupling of upper jet exit and entrance regions and a strengthening frontal zone. Models are in good agreement with a band of heavy rain setting up across the area Fri into Fri night. Both the 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF point toward at least a 2-3 inch swath across ern Long Island and SE CT, dropping to less than inch just NW of NYC. NBM amts looked too low at least for Long Island and S CT given degree of moisture transport into those areas and convergence on the nose of an H8 LLJ enhancing lift, so blended that with the higher model QPF noted above. NBM 90th percentile has higher amts of 2-3 inches extending NW north/west and 4-5 inches for ern Long Island/SE CT, so there is still room for heavier amts to extend north/west and for amts across the board to be higher than fcst. While there is some instability to support deeper convection, we are still not in the window of the REFS and HRRR to see hourly rates. GFS has PW values approaching 1.75 inches near eastern Long Island, which is above the 90th percentile.

WPC still has the NYC metro, Long Island, coastal CT, and interior SE CT under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday. However, dry antecedent conditions are in place due to little if any rainfall since mid October. This will also be a long duration event. Thus, the main flooding issues at this time look to be minor, but longer term issues like basement flooding are a possibility.

Heaviest rainfall likely comes to end by Saturday morning, but some shower activity could linger on saturday with the upper low overhead.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday: MVFR/IFR or lower. Chance of rain showers, especially west of NYC.

Friday: MVFR/IFR possible w/ showers. Thunder also possible.

Saturday: Improving to VFR early.

Sunday: MVFR possible w/ showers.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Conditions on the coastal waters remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Thursday afternoon.

Increasing long fetch S-SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front develops late Thursday and could push significant wave heights toward 5 ft on the ocean by late Thu night. Conditions briefly relax on Friday, before winds and seas increase once again in NW flow this weekend, with SCA conditions likely on at least the ocean waters much of early next week.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

November 4: KEWR: 79/1994 KBDR: 78/1975 KNYC: 78/1975 KLGA: 76/1987 KJFK: 77/1975 KISP: 76/1990

November 5: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 78/1961 KLGA: 75/2022 KJFK: 75/1975 KISP: 74/2022

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5: KEWR: 61/2022 KBDR: 59/1961 KNYC: 64/2022 KLGA: 63/2022 KJFK: 60/2022 KISP: 62/2022

November 6: KEWR: 66/2022 KBDR: 62/2024 KNYC: 66/2022 KLGA: 65/2024 KJFK: 64/2022 KISP: 65/2022

Record Precipitation:

November 6: KEWR: 2.12/1911 KBDR: 0.54/2018 KNYC: 1.47/1911 KLGA: 0.96/1963 KJFK: 1.42/1963 KISP: 0.71/1963

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.