textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 09z TAF Amendments.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this morning, ending out east early this afternoon. Rainfall will be heavy at times with the potential for isolated to scattered flash floods. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the area into early afternoon.

2) Brief minor coastal flooding possible for vulnerable areas along the coast for southern Fairfield during times of high tide this afternoon.

3) Dry with near seasonable temperatures expected Monday through Wednesday, followed by a low probability of showers Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Canadian high pressure builds over the northeast on Monday ushering in cooler and much drier air. Dew points will likely fall through the day into the 40s to low 50s and temperatures will struggle to reach seasonable averages with highs in the lower 70s, potentially mid 60s in the NYC metro. Cold/dry advection may bring a few NW wind gusts 20-25 mph. Ideal radiational cooling conditions are looking likely Monday night allowing temperatures to bottom out in the mid to upper 40s inland and 50s closer to the coast. If the low Monday night falls below 60 degrees in NYC, it will be the first time the temperature has been below 60 degrees at Central Park since June 16 when the low was 57. Highs on Tuesday will remain slightly below normal in the lower 70s. Some moderation is anticipated by Wednesday with highs returning close to if not slightly above normal.

Strong ridging aloft may start breaking down by Thursday which could send the next cold front towards the area. The latest model consensus has low probabilities for showers Thursday afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Tonight: VFR. Potential lingering MVFR at KGON. 20-25 kt NW gusts behind a cold frontal passage late Sunday night.

Monday: VFR. Northerly wind gusts 15-20 kt day into early evening.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible on the ocean today as a warm front and associated wave of low pressure move across the waters. Gusts may approach SCA levels, especially on the ocean, on Monday behind a cold front passage and a tightening pressure gradient. An SCA may be needed if trends continue. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels into Thursday.

Rip Currents... A moderate risk of rip currents remains for today. S/SW winds early today around 10-15 kt will build a wind wave to around 4ft at 5s out of the S.

The risk has been lowered to low for Monday given an offshore wind component and no significant swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ006>012. NY...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ078>081-177- 179. Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NYZ071>075-176-178. NJ...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None.