textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Shower chance for late Thu / Thu night.

2) Dry and pleasant Friday into the start of the weekend.

3) Wet weather increasingly likely later in the weekend and possibly carrying into the first half of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

During Saturday night as high pressure departs the New England coast a warm front will approach from the west. This will bring more clouds Saturday night and the likelihood of rain towards Sunday morning. Currently carrying likely PoPs throughout the day Sunday, with high end chance PoPs Sunday night. Afterwards there is some question as to where the front ultimately locks up during the first half of next week with a suggestion that the front goes quasi- stationary. Some NWP deterministic runs have shown the front nudging to the south and allowing some high pressure to build from the north, while the consensus of NWP and AI guidance suggests the front remains nearby or at least close enough to bring an ongoing chance of showers / rain for Monday through Wednesday. Forecast confidence is below average at this time with uncertainty around the positioning of the frontal boundary. Temperatures during this time period may average slightly below normal with guidance indicating an onshore easterly flow.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower well NW of the NYC metro in the afternoon, chance of showers and MVFR Thursday night.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday Night-Sunday: Showers possible night, then becoming likely on Sunday with MVFR or lower possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

High pressure remains in place through today, before slowly sliding south of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. The pressure gradient will remain weak throughout this time frame with conditions remaining well below advisory levels. Towards late Friday into Friday night marginal small craft conditions may develop for portions of the ocean waters behind a cold front on a NNW wind. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions are expected Saturday with high pressure building to the north. The high will move off the New England coast Saturday night into Sunday allowing the winds to become more onshore. Marginal small craft conditions are possible on all waters by Sunday.

Rip Currents... For today the rip current risk should be low for the majority of the day with the surf only getting to around a foot. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on all south-facing Long Island beaches on Thursday, especially as a SE swell increases under an increasing southerly wind wave in the afternoon.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.