textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds in overnight and remains in control of the weather through Wednesday. A quick moving low then moves through Wednesday night. High pressure builds in on Thursday and remains in place through early Friday. Then, a Canadian low brings through a cold front late Friday into early Saturday. High pressure follows the cold front until another low pressure system impacts the region Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms have moved out of the area. Then with an increasing pressure gradient force and rather strong cold advection, winds and gusts increase behind the front with gusts around 30kt. The highest winds and gusts will likely be across the eastern areas as an offshore low deepens and is picked up by the northern stream cold front. Wind gusts remain be advisory levels. Used a blend of the NBM, NBM 90th, and CONSSHORT for the winds and gusts.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Weak upper ridging builds in for Tuesday and Tuesday night with a fast nearly zonal upper flow. This flow will bring a weak shortwave and clipper system into the region for late Wednesday and into Wednesday night. The surface low passes to the north and the better chances of precipitation will be across the northern areas. Another period of gusty westerly winds develop late Wednesday night in the wake of the low as the system continues to deepens as the low moves off the New England coast by Thursday morning. Gusts are potentially higher than tonight's but will likely also remain below Wind Advisory criteria. For winds and gusts used a blend of the NBM and NBM 90th.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Low pressure exits northeast as high pressure builds in on Thursday, remaining in place through the first half of Friday. Thursday will still remain breezy as a pressure gradient remains over the region, but this gradient will continue to relax into the afternoon and evening, leading to winds ramping down. Dry weather is anticipated Thursday through the first half of Friday.

A Canadian low will pass to our north, dragging through a cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. This will bring with it rain and wind. Rain is mainly timed for overnight Friday night while winds are expected to increase through the day Friday, peaking Friday evening and early Friday night.

Following the cold front, we dry out again until another system impacts us Sunday into Monday. Timing and magnitude still vary among the guidance during this time frame, so for now only carrying slight and chance POPs. Strong winds, typical of Fall, will again return with this system.

Highs remain in the 50s to low 60s through the long-term period each day while lows vary a little more. It will be a chilly Thursday night as lows dip into the 30s (or even below freezing in some spots). SW flow and rainfall will lead to a significantly warmer night Friday night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Thereafter cooler nights return to round out the weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance of showers at night SW-S winds 15g25kt in the afternoon, becoming W G20-30kt at night.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds around 15g25kt possible.

Friday: VFR. SW-S winds 10-15,g20-25kt possible. Rain with sub VFR at night.

Saturday: Sub VFR possible early, otherwise VFR with W winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

With a tight pressure gradient and cold advection, a Gale Warning is in effect for all but the New York Harbor waters where a Small Craft Advisory has been posted. Gusts in the western Long Island Sound waters are marginal for gale force gusts, but toward the central Sound winds and gusts increase so decided to include the western Sound in the Gale Warning. Once gale force gusts, end small craft advisory level gusts continue through Tuesday and possibly into Tuesday evening, especially for the eastern forecast waters.

Then with the passage of a clipper system passing to the north of the waters Wednesday night and deepening off the New England coast, another period of gale force gusts are likely across all the waters, and have highlighted this in the HWOOKX, Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Gales should end by midday Thursday as the pressure gradient continually weakens into the day as high pressure builds in. Waves on ocean waters should drop below SCA levels Thursday night. Gales will again be possible on ocean waters with SCA-level gusts on non ocean waters as our next cold front approaches and passes late Friday into Saturday morning. Conditions improve late Saturday and remain below SCA-levels until our next system passes Sunday into Monday.

HYDROLOGY

There are no hydrologic concerns through this weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ331-332- 335-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-353-355.