textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The winter weather advisory has been expanded, and now also includes Northeast New Jersey, the Bronx and northern Queens in NYC, and the northern half of Long Island.

Probabilities have trended lower for the late Sunday into Monday potential storm event.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Winter Weather advisories for much of the area with light freezing rain and freezing drizzle expected for this evening into the overnight.

2) Temperatures near to slightly above normal Saturday night through Tuesday.

3) There is a chance for light rain and/or snow late Sunday through Monday. Uncertainty remains high, and probabilities have trended lower.

KEY MESSAGE 3

A lot of uncertainty remains with low pressure passing to the south of the area Sunday into Monday night. NBM probabilities have trended down with this system, and global models are now showing that upper ridging will remain across the central US and into the Great Lakes, and moving into the northeast US Friday and into the weekend as an upper shortwave moves into the southwest US and then rides under the ridge across the southern tier. At the surface a reinforcing high builds out of central Canada and suppresses the surface low well to the south as the low reaches the East Coast by late this weekend. The area will be on the northern edge of the storm, with the chance of light snow and/or rain. If trends continue there is the possibility that the area could remain dry through the weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of snow inland and either snow/rain at the NYC metros/coast at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub advisory conditions continue through tonight on primarily a light S flow. Winds begin to switch to a more W direction towards the early portion of the morning. SCA cond will then develop quickly by mid morning Wed on all waters, and continue through the day Thu. An occasional gust to gale force is possible for the ocean waters Wed afternoon/evening. SCA cond could last into Thu night on the ocean.

Winds and seas then fall below advisory levels beginning Friday, and lasting through Sunday night. There is uncertainty with the track of low pressure passing to the south Sunday night: if the low tracks a little farther to the north, then wind gusts on the ocean will be near SCA levels later in the weekend. However, latest trends have been to keep the low track farther south.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>007-009>011. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ067>071-073-078-079-176-177. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.