textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure moves offshore through Wednesday. A weak cold front approaches late Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. High pressure briefly follows for Thursday. A strong frontal system approaches from the west Thursday and moves across early Friday. Temperatures will drop back close to seasonal levels for the weekend into the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

Key Points:

* Dry weather through tonight with continued freezing lows in the 20s.

At the surface, high pressure continues to move offshore tonight. This will allow for more synoptic SW flow and thereby allow for the airmass over the region to be more moderated overnight.

Lows will remain well-below freezing tonight in the 20s, but this will be warmer compared to the previous night. With temperatures tonight going well below freezing for most locations, there will potentially be some patchy ice on untreated surfaces, especially for those areas where winds will be lighter.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/

Much of the short term forecast remains on track from previous forecast.

Key Messages

* Focus of the short term will be a strong frontal system and potential for brief heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Potential for wind gusts up to around 45 to 50 mph, possibly exceeding 50 mph gusts for some locations, especially along the coast. The time frame for the strong wind potential as well as heavy rain potential would be late Thursday night through early Friday. * Otherwise, dry conditions Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures trending warmer Wednesday through Thursday night and trending colder Friday through Friday night.

Upper level and mid level flow quasi-zonal for Wednesday through much of Thursday. The flow becomes more amplified late Thursday with large long trough moving across Friday.

At the surface, high pressure will continue to move farther out into the Atlantic. More southwest flow will allow for warmer temperatures as vertical mixing will be deeper. For Wednesday, max temperatures forecast are into the 40s across much of the region with dry conditions. A cold front approaches from the west, which will move across early Wednesday night. The associated parent low is well north of the region along with main forcing, allowing for this to be a dry cold frontal passage.

Surface high pressure returns briefly late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning before moving offshore thereafter through Thursday night. Dry conditions remain with a continued southwest flow, providing more low level warm air advection. The low temperatures Wednesday night will still be rather cold due to optimal radiational cooling with a brief window of mostly clear sky conditions along with diminishing winds. But even taking that into account, the lows are relatively warmer compared to the previous night.

A strong frontal system will be moving towards the area Thursday. The parent low will be moving across the Great Lakes. The associated warm front moves across late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon while the associated cold front approaches Thursday night. The surface cold front will be strong and will be moving across early Friday.

Mild temperatures expected Thursday through early Friday morning following by decreasing temperatures for the rest of the day Friday. Temperatures will thus exhibit a non-diurnal trend. Highs will get into the 50s. This will ensure rapid snowmelt prior to the arrival of rainfall and mitigate any ice concerns given well-above freezing temperatures.

For this timeframe, there is a high likelihood of rain, potentially briefly heavy, at times. Precipitation tapers off during Friday afternoon from west to east. With strong cold air advection, some snow may mix in with the rain, mainly across parts of the interior before all precipitation concludes. Some elevated CAPE is evident in soundings, but may not be enough for any thunder, so have left this out of the forecast, for now, but remains worth watching.

Also, with the strong cold front, a strong pressure gradient sets up between lower pressure to the north and west and high pressure well offshore. Strong southerly flow will be initially limited to inversions in the low levels but could mix down more with downward momentum transport with heavier rain. NAM and GFS BUFKIT continue show 850mb level winds increasing to near 70-80 kt, a strong low level jet.

Relatively stronger surface winds become more widespread Friday with cold air advection increasing and thereby increasing vertical mixing levels. Gusts up to 40 to 50 mph are looking more probable especially along the immediate coast with the potential for some gusts exceeding 50 mph. Strongest winds appear to be just ahead, along and behind the strong cold front overnight Thursday night through Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Points:

* A chance for some black ice due to refreezing Fri night.

* Seasonable temperatures and mainly dry through the period.

Strong CAA Fri ngt may lead to areas of refreezing on area roads due to the rain and snowmelt. Based on winds aloft, gusts around 40 mph seem likely, although some higher peak gusts possible due to strong subsidence and CAA.

Breezy in the mrng on Sat, then winds back to the SW in the aftn as return flow begins. Temps close to normal.

A little warmer on Sun ahead of the next frontal sys, then colder on Mon with highs likely remaining in the 30s behind the next cold front. A dry fropa is modeled attm with limited moisture.

Temps close to normal again on Tue with the next weak sys potentially producing some light pcpn.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday: VFR. SW winds around 10 to 15 kt, gusts 15 to 20kt.

Thursday: VFR, possibly becoming MVFR late in the day. S winds G15- 20kt late day.

Thursday night: IFR with rain. S winds G20-25kt in the evening, increasing to 25-35kt after midnight. LLWS after midnight.

Friday: Rain in the morning with MVFR/IFR, then rain ending with VFR. SW winds G25-35kt in the morning, shifting W in the afternoon. LLWS early.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Due to an increasing pressure gradient, a SCA is in place for late tonight and through the day tomorrow on all waters for winds. Waves will also be 5-7 ft into early Wednesday night before subsiding.

Then conditions return to below SCA levels until the approach of our next frontal system. Thursday night waves finally climb above 5 ft and continue to climb through the night peaking on Friday around 15- 17 ft on ocean waters. Likewise, winds increase Thursday night, reaching reaching gale criteria for much of Thursday night into Friday on most, if not all, waters.

A gale wrng will likely be needed for Fri ngt, with winds decreasing thru the day on Sat but still around SCA lvls. Seas are modeled to build to around 15ft on the ern ocean Fri ngt. A SCA will likely be needed on Sun as well as winds increase ahead of the next sys.

HYDROLOGY

At this time, no hydrologic problems are expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-355. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.