textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A wintry mix precipitation event is more certain for Tuesday.
2) Generally wet conditions and above normal temperatures mid week through next weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2
Another wave of low pressure moves in quickly behind the previous one as early as Wednesday evening. Continued differences in location and timing have led to a prolonged period of PoPs in the forecast. While PoPs extend mid week through the weekend, a washout is not expected. All precipitation is expected to fall as rain. There is a bit of a stronger signal now in some of the guidance that this wave will run into high pressure trying to nose down from the northeast. While this will likely cause some ptype concerns well north of our area, we are expected to remain all plain rain in our area.
This pattern will lead to several days of above normal temperatures. Forecast highs next weekend are forecast to be in the 60s for portions of northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley, while the cooler flow off the waters keeps LI and coastal areas in the upper 40s lower 50s. Elsewhere mid to upper 50s are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain from south to north during the afternoon.
Wednesday and Thursday: Chance of rain with MVFR or lower cond.
Friday: Chance of rain with MVFR or lower cond, mainly in the morning at most terminals.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
High pressure will remain in control through Monday night, then a weak wave of low pressure will impact the area beginning Tuesday. Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels on the forecast waters through Tuesday night. However, with a prolonged period of southwesterly winds ocean seas east of Moriches Inlet may approach 5 feet by late Tuesday night.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on the ocean waters with 5ft waves at the end of the week into the weekend. Otherwise, with generally a weak pressure gradient over the area, all other waters will fall below SCA criteria.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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