textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds in through Saturday. A cold front then passes through Sunday morning, followed by another cold front Sunday night. High pressure then builds back in for Monday. Another frontal system looks to impact the region Tuesday into Wednesday with possibly another for late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

Key Messages:

* 45-50 mph gusts still possible until midnight.

* Potential for black ice across the interior of Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern CT.

High pressure builds in through tonight behind a departing cold front. Winds at the top of the mixed layer are progged at around 45-50kt until around midnight, so still anticipating advisory-level gusts. No changes to the Wind Advisory which remains in effect until midnight. Can't rule out a gust or two to advisory thresholds for an hour or two thereafter, but winds will diminish during the late night hours.

Still some light snow showers around through midnight. Temperatures will continue fall through the overnight and should be below freezing by 1 am areawide. Drying has occured for most areas except the interior where earlier rain/snow showers could lead to some icy spots on untreated surfaces. An SPS has been issued until 2 am to address this concern. Will revaluate if it needs to be extended through day break. Low temperatures overnight mostly 25-30.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key Message:

* Dry this weekend with close to normal temperatures.

A high pressure ridge shifts through the region Saturday afternoon and keeps us dry through Saturday night. Any precip with weak warm advection at night should remain well to our north. Saturday's high temperatures are expected to be just below normal with Sunday a little above normal. Sunday will feature more breezy conditions, particularly in the afternoon and night in association with a couple of cold front passages and a strengthening pressure gradient.

Another cold front pushes in early on Sunday with a secondary cold front pushing through Sunday night. No precipitation is anticipated with these frontal passages, though winds will remain quite gusty from the W/NW with gusts upwards of 30 mph.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Messages:

* Mainly dry conditions are expected on Monday. Precipitation returns to the forecast on Tuesday.

* Frigid temperatures in place on Monday become more seasonable by mid-week.

The area will remain influenced by a frigid airmass on Monday with high pressure over the area. Highs Monday will be in the low to middle 30s. Any gusty NW wind Monday morning lightens up by the afternoon and begins to shift out of the SW as the high pressure shifts east. This will bring in a more seasonable airmass for midweek with highs generally in the low to middle 40s. Meanwhile, mid-level energy passing well north of the area will allow for a surface frontal system to impact the area on Tuesday. Precipitation is expected to move in early Tuesday and may begin as snow depending on surface temperatures. Marginal surface temperatures during the day Tuesday may allow for a rain/snow mix over much of the area in the morning, eventually transitioning to mainly a light rain for much of the area into the afternoon. A lot of the precipitation types will depend on the timing of the frontal system, with an earlier pass-through allowing for more snow than rain, but either way, QPF and precip intensity look to be light so any significant impacts are not expected.

The system pushes east as it intensifies on Wednesday, allowing for high pressure to once again build into the area. Another progressive shortwave may pass nearby on Christmas Day or Friday, but guidance is much too variable and inconsistent to hone down any details at this time.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: VFR. W winds 15G20-25kt, shifting NW at night.

Monday: VFR.

Monday night: Chance of light snow after midnight. MVFR cond likely, IFR possible.

Tuesday: Snow likely with IFR cond at KHPN/KSWF in the morning, then a rain/snow mix in the afternoon. A rain/snow mix elsewhere (with MVFR cond likely/IFR possible) should become all rain in the afternoon. SW winds G20kt.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt, becoming NW.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters through tonight. Once the warning expires, a SCA will be needed on the ocean waters through much, if not all of the daytime Saturday whether it be due to winds or seas. Winds and seas then pick up Saturday night with a chance of a gust or two reaching 35kt late at night into Sunday morning. A somewhat better chance of gales then follows on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. As for the non-ocean waters, SCA conds are probable through mid-morning Sunday before a drop in wind speeds. SCA conds then return late Saturday night and continue through Sunday night.

SCA conditions likely persist on the ocean waters through Monday morning with some non-ocean waters possibly having SCA conditions. Any SCA conditions end by Monday evening. SCA conditions then return Tuesday for all waters with some near gale force gusts for the ocean possible.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for CTZ005>012. NY...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355.