textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonably warm and dry conditions continue into Monday.

2) Hot and humid conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

3) Seasonable warmth returns late this week into the weekend. An occasional shot or two of unsettled weather is possible, but low confidence in timing.

4) Brief minor tidal flooding expected around the times of high tide this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 4

The combination of high astronomical tides due to the upcoming new moon on July 14 and a minor of push of water toward the coastline on an E-SE flow today will once again bring water levels in some locations to around or just above minor coastal flood benchmarks. The locations that are most susceptible are the more vulnerable locales of coastal Fairfield, southern Nassau/Queens, and tidal areas of NE NJ and Staten Island. A coastal flood statement remains in effect for these locations covering the evening high tide cycle.

The threat may linger longer into early next week as we approach the new moon, however, much of the guidance keeps water levels just below as winds become southerly. This will have to be watched though as we could still skirt near minor flood thresholds. Any flooding at that time would be brief/minor.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W-SW winds G15-20kt.

Thursday and Friday: VFR.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions expected through Tue morning. Light S flow to start on Mon should increase through the day, with with gusts to 20 kt possible Mon night.

The next solid chance of SCA conditions will be Tue afternoon/evening on the ocean and ern Sound, as SW winds increase with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas build to 4-7 ft, highest east. SCA conditions could linger on the ocean E of FIre Island Inlet into late Tue night/Wed.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters Wed night through Fri.

Rip Currents: On Mon The risk could start off as low in the morning with light S flow. The combo of onshore S flow increasing to 10-15 kt in the afternoon building wind waves to 3 ft, plus greater than usual tidal fluctuations due to the upcoming new moon on Tue, should increase the risk to moderate in the afternoon.

The rip current risk should be mostly moderate on Tue, as winds become SW and increase to 15-20 kt, building seas to 3-5 ft by late day, and could increase to high by late day just as most lifeguards and beach patrols finish routine daily operations. That high risk (if it develops) could last into early Wed morning especially for eastern Suffolk.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.