textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure departs into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. High pressure builds southwest of the region Monday into Monday night as a weakening low pressure system approaches the Great Lakes. High pressure returns for Tuesday building in briefly, before moving offshore by Tuesday night. A cold front moves across Wednesday night. High pressure briefly follows for Thursday. A strong cold front approaches from the west Thursday night and moves across early Friday. High pressure returns thereafter into Saturday and moves offshore Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front approaches for next Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Key Points:

* Areas of black ice this evening through Monday morning as any moisture or slush on untreated surfaces will quickly refreeze.

* Windy with NW winds gusts 30 to 40 mph and unseasonably cold tonight into Monday morning with wind chills around zero city/coast and as low as -8 below zero across the interior.

* Gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph may bring down additional snow laden tree branches, with isolated power outages, into the overnight. Greatest threat for Long Island.

Strong polar shortwave (-2 to -3 std 500mb heights) pivots through and the area tonight.

Scattered snow showers across LI/CT, ahead of approaching shortwave, will come to an end early this evening. Otherwise, coldest airmass of the season (850mb temps down to -18 C). ushered in tonight into Mon AM on brisk NW winds of 15-25G30-40mph, with temps falling into the lower teens interior and mid teens coast (upper teens NYC/NJ metro). Windchills around 0 F for coast, and 0 to -8 F for interior.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Temperatures around 15 degrees below seasonable Monday into Monday Night

Polar trough exits east Monday morning, with mean upper troughing Monday into Monday night. A couple of weak backside shortwaves approach Monday afternoon and cross Mon eve into Tue morning. Associated weak clipper system appears to weaken as it approaches, but WAA ahead of it will result in increasing afternoon clouds and perhaps isolated snow showers/flurries Monday aft/night. No accum expected.

Limited mixing and increasing cloud cover with a moderating polar airmass will likely keep temps in the mid 20s interior to upper 20s coast (about 15 degrees below seasonable). Windchills in the teens.

Cloud cover should help keep temps from bottoming out Monday Night, with lows in the teens interior, and lower 20s coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Points

* Arctic airmass starts to weaken with temperatures starting to moderate on Tuesday.

* Airmass further moderates with milder high temperatures Wednesday (mostly lower 40s) and Thursday (mostly upper 40s to lower 50s).

* Strong cold front approaches Thursday night and moves across early Friday. Brief heavy rain possible and very gusty winds. Cold air advection Friday post cold front may allow for some snow to mix in north and west of NYC.

* Precipitation forecast to close out next weekend. Low chances of rain and snow.

Active forecast period with upper level jet remaining near or within the Northeast for the long term period. This will provide more steering flow for a more rapid progressive pattern with quick passage of high and low pressure areas. Aloft, there will be a series of troughs that move across the area.

Surface high pressure briefly builds in Tuesday before moving offshore Tuesday night. Airmass will begin to moderate during this time period. A strengthening low pressure area moving eastward within Southeast Canada for midweek will bring an associated cold front towards the local area. This front will move through Wednesday night but its main forcing remains well north of the area. Another high pressure builds in briefly behind the front early Thursday before quickly moving offshore later Thursday into Thursday evening. No precipitation is forecast with dry conditions prevailing through Thursday.

A strong cold front approaches Thursday night and moves across early Friday. A high likelihood of rainfall is forecast across the region for this timeframe. Precipitation tapers off during the day Friday from west to east. With strong cold air advection, some snow may mix in with the rain north and west of NYC before all precipitation concludes.

Another high pressure area builds in later Friday into Saturday before another cold front approaches Saturday night into Sunday with more chances for rain and snow. POPs are still low and under 30 percent so looks like mainly dry conditions for next weekend outside of the front.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday night: VFR. Winds backing SW and diminishing.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday night: Rain with IFR cond, especially after midnight. S winds 10-15G20-25kt in the evening, increasing to 15-20G25-35kt after midnight. LLWS after midnight.

Friday: Chance of rain and either MVFR/IFR cond in the morning, then VFR. SW winds 15-20G25-35kt in the morning, shifting W in the afternoon. LLWS early.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gale on the ocean waters tonight, continuing into Monday AM. Otherwise SCA conds on the nearshore waters through Monday afternoon, with occasional gale force gusts this evening/overnight. Light freezing spray also anticipated across the open waters tonight into Monday.

SCA conditions likely on the ocean waters through Monday night, with marginal gusts on nearshore waters, falling below SCA Tuesday AM.

After a brief respite, SCA gusts possible on the ocean once again Tuesday night. SCA gusts forecast across most waters Wednesday and for ocean Wednesday night. SCA gusts forecast again on ocean Thursday afternoon. Widespread SCA gusts at minimum forecast Thursday night through Friday evening with potential for gales late Thursday night into early Friday.

HYDROLOGY

There are no hydrologic impacts expected through the entire forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.