textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense Fog advisory in effect tonight for all of southern CT, LI, NYC/NJ metro, and Westchester county in the Lower Hudson Valley.

Dense Fog Advisory in effect for all waters tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak frontal system will bring a chance of showers across the area tonight into Sunday morning. Areas of dense fog expected for much of the area tonight.

2) A warming trend begins Sunday and continues through the middle of next week.

3) A strong frontal system will impact the area late Wednesday into late Thursday. With it comes a chance for rain showers, slight chance for thunderstorms, and a period of strong winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Low pressure will develop at the surface in the Great Lakes/OH River Valley region early on Wednesday ahead of a deepening upper-level trough over the Great Plains. This will bring a warm front through early on Wednesday with some mid-level energy and PWATs increasing to 1.3-1.6". This will lead to some light rain shower activity across the area Wednesday into early Wednesday night.

The upper-level trough then advances eastward Wednesday night and becomes negatively-tilted. This will lead to a rapidly strengthening surface low as the low tracks into eastern Quebec into late Thursday. This will lead to a period of of rain showers early on Thursday, with some isolated moderate to heavy downpours possible with FROPA later in the day Thursday. The timing of FROPA still varies among model guidance by 12 hours. It could be anywhere from early Thursday or Thursday night. As a result, have stuck with 13Z NBM POPs, for now.

Depending on the timing of the front, some thunderstorms may be possible. While CAPE values are not at all impressive, but there is still some marginal instability with the front in addition to a brief wind of suitable mid-level lapse rates and very strong 0-6km Bulk Shear values along and ahead of the front. While it still ultimately depends on the timing of the front, have added slight chance for thunder to the forecast on Thursday, as a result. Should it be timed for afternoon/evening, its important to note the warm temperatures west of the city quickly cool as you move east of the city. Should we see thunderstorms, its quite possible they fall apart once they reach NYC with cooler, more stable air east of NYC.

Given forcing from the cold front, along with anomalously high PWATs and generous synoptic lift, rain showers along the front on Thursday could bring with them some isolated moderate to heavy downpours. Though, confidence is still low, at this time, especially if the upper-level trough doesn't become negatively-tilted until after the frontal passage.

Thursday night, there remains a brief window for rain/snow at the coast with a changeover to all snow in the interior with strong cold air advection behind FROPA. However, the window for this is quite narrow given the rapidly drying air, so significant snowfall accumulations are not expected, at this time.

A strong 45-60 kt LLJ has the potential to be mixed down to the surface, aided by a strong pressure gradient, leading to a period of strong winds Wednesday night into Thursday night.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday afternoon-Sunday night: Possible MVFR to IFR east of NYC terminals. Otherwise, VFR. SW-W wind gusts 15-20 kt during the afternoon.

Monday: VFR. S-SW gusts 15-20 kt possible during the afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of rain showers. S wind gusts near 20-25 kt afternoon into night.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible at times with rain showers. Isolated thunderstorm possible. SW-W wind gusts 25-30 kt during the day. A chance that rain showers could mix with snow at night. MVFR or lower possible at times at night. W wind gusts near 20-25 kt at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Dense Fog advisory in effect for all waters through tonight as warm, moist air moves across the cooler waters.

SCA remains up for the ocean with a strengthening SW flow and marginal gusts to 25 kt. Seas will build to 5 to 7 ft my morning before gradually subsiding into Sunday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated Monday and Tuesday.

A frontal system Wednesday through Thursday will impact coastal waters. Gale conditions are likely on ocean waters and possible on non-ocean waters late Wednesday night into late Thursday. Waves will peak between 10-13 ft on ocean waters.

Conditions subside Thursday night. By Friday, winds will be below SCA criteria, but 5 ft waves may linger.

CLIMATE

Below are record high temperatures for Tuesday March 11 and Wednesday March 12

Tuesday March 11: KEWR: 81/2016 KBDR: 70/2006 KNYC: 79/2016 KLGA: 78/2016 KJFK: 71/2006 KISP: 73/2016

Wednesday March 12: KEWR: 75/2021 KBDR: 67/1977 KNYC: 79/2016 KLGA: 70/1977 KJFK: 68/2016 KISP: 68/1977

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for CTZ005>012. NY...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for NYZ070>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ355.