textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday morning may produce locally heavy downpours with a risk of minor urban/poor drainage flooding and localized flash flooding.

2) Mainly dry and seasonably warm Monday afternoon through Wednesday before the next chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

High pressure will build over the area Monday night through the middle of the week. This will lead to dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Models are coming into slightly better agreement with the next upper trough moving over the northeast on Thursday, which may send the next cold front across the area supporting the next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Timing of this system is still uncertain with some guidance having it move through early Thursday, while others move it through Thursday night. The latest NBM PoPs are 30-40 percent Thursday morning through Thursday night, accounting for the aforementioned uncertainty.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday night: Showers become more widespread, potentially heavy at times late. MVFR to IFR conditions. Brief localized LIFR possible. A few thunderstorms are possible late. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt at times possible.

Monday: MVFR to IFR early with showers and possible thunderstorms. A few showers and thunderstorms possible afternoon into early evening with MVFR possible. Overall, chances for VFR increase afternoon into night.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance for showers and MVFR at night. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening.

Thursday: A chance of showers with MVFR possible. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

High pressure will lead to conditions well below SCA levels on the waters through tonight. S flow gradually increases on Sunday as the high moves offshore yielding potential for 25-30 kt wind gusts on the ocean, LI Bays and potentially the NY Harbor and LI Sound. A SCA is now in effect for the ocean waters, NY Harbor and the Great South Bay Sunday night into Monday. These winds may linger Monday morning on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet. Seas will also build Sunday and especially Sunday night, reaching 5- 7 ft. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels Monday night through mid week as high pressure builds back over the waters.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains low into this eve at ocean beaches. The rip current risk increases on Sunday with increasing S winds. Waves likely around 2 ft, so risk was kept at moderate. Residual seas near 5 ft on Mon so preliminary fcst is high for rips, especially in the mrng with S flow ongoing.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355.