textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost advisories issued for parts of the area for tonight. Most of the freeze watch upgraded to a freeze warning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A colder air mass settles in, with near freezing temperatures inland tonight and sub-freezing temperatures for much of the area outside NYC and some immediate suburbs to the west/east Monday night.

2) Milder weather returns mid to late week, with a potential cooldown for next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Following the departure of an upper trough across the area, heights will build aloft mid week as ridging builds east from the mid section of the country. This will allow for a warmup from Wednesday into Thursday. The forecast then becomes a bit more challenging at the end of the week as jet energy dropping down the east side of the upper ridge across eastern Canada carves out an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes. This then sets up a block of the incoming ridge, weakening it, and potentially allowing a back door cold front to drop SW across New England and into the area on Friday, the latter of which could serve as a focusing mechanism for showers heading into the weekend. It is too early to be specific with any details, but a cooler weekend with a low chance for rain will be advertised at this time. NBM spread in the box and whisker plots is clearly showing an increasing spread heading toward Friday and next weekend. This is likely do to the timing and location of the backdoor cold front.

At this time, using the NBM deterministic forecast, highs Thursday get into the 60s along the coast, and 65-70 from NYC and points north and west. This is looks to be the warmest day of the week. Lows will be in the 40s to around 50. Temperatures will then begin to gradually cool down Friday into the weekend. Highs could struggle to get out of the 50s next weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Late Monday night: VFR. NNW winds under 10 kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers in the morning.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and waves blw SCA lvls through Fri night.

CLIMATE

Daily record low temperatures for Tue Apr 21:

KEWR: 31/1981 KBDR: 29/1956 KNYC: 26/1875 KLGA: 33/1956 KJFK: 34/1956 KISP: 30/1965

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ009>012. NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>071-078>081. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ069>071- 078>081. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for NYZ177-179. NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-103>108. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002-004-103- 104. MARINE...None.