textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A warm front will approach tonight and lift through Thursday morning. A slow moving cold front will then drop into the area Thursday night into Friday. Unsettled conditions are likely this weekend with the frontal boundary remaining nearby. The front will move away on Monday, with high pressure slowly returning into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Forecast generally on track for the rest of the night. Widespread showers remain to our north, but anticipate showers to develop overnight as a warm front draws closer. The overrunning moisture may also lead to areas of drizzle and fog development towards day break. Low temps likely achieved early in the upper 30s and low 40s. Temperatures should rise to 45-50 degrees by daybreak.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/

Area of fog and some drizzle likely to develop in the morning especially from NYC east as the warm front lifts through. CAM's meanwhile show potential for additional showers and isolated tstms to move across from the west in the morning.

Any fog should become patchy in nature by afternoon, with temps warming up to the lower/mid 60s across Long Island, and upper 60s/lower 70s from NYC west. S winds will become gusty after warm fropa, with gusts up to 25-30 mph in the NYC metro area and along the coast, and mostly 15-20 mph inland. Another chance for showers possible ahead of the slow moving cold front across parts of NE NJ. Air mass does not look all that unstable, with SBCAPE no more than 200-500 J/kg in this area, so have only mentioned slight chance thunder. This instability then skirts NYC and Long Island in the evening, so once again have only mentioned slight chance thunder for those areas. Do not expect any svr potential with this activity.

Cold front should enter the area from late evening into the overnight. As it does so, an upper jet streak well to the north and mid level vort energy riding top a broad upper ridge axis over the Southeast should bring another chance of showers after midnight. Low temps will be mostly in the lower 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Points:

* Unsettled conditions are expected this weekend with a frontal boundary in the vicinity.

* Showers are most likely on Saturday and then again late Sunday into Sunday night.

* Improving conditions are likely Monday with high pressure slowly building towards the area on Tuesday.

* Seasonably cool temperatures Saturday should trend warmer on Sunday with some 70s possible for NE NJ, NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley. Temperatures then trend cooler early next week.

Any showers remaining in the area Friday morning will come to an end by afternoon as a cold front pushes south and high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This should keep much of Friday dry, but the high pressure quickly moves through, departing the area by Friday night and into Saturday morning. A shortwave develops an area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley and pushes into the Northeast Saturday. This will bring a warm front pushing north through the area and with it, the potential for showers Saturday morning and through the day. The strongest WAA will be north of the area with a possibility of the coastline seeing more showery activity as opposed to a steady rain.

The warm front continues to push north of the area which may result in a lull in rain for Saturday night, though a saturated BL may result in continued drizzle and fog for much of the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. The area is expected to be in the warm sector of the initial low to the north with a secondary low pressure system developing upstream along the cold front. This intensifying low pressure system will advect additional moisture and provide ample forcing for the area by Sunday night as the front approaches from the west. Widespread rain, locally moderate to heavy, is possible with the frontal passage. While there doesn't appear to be significant amounts of instability, there does seem to be enough elevated CAPE to support at least a slight chance of thunder for the time being, though this is highly dependent on the amount of cloud cover and heating during the day on Sunday if the warm front is able to push further north than anticipated.

The cold front pushes through Sunday night and into Monday morning. Rain should come to an end by Monday morning, though some additional showers may be possible Monday and Tuesday as the upper level trough swings overhead providing for some additional lift. High pressure then builds back in for the middle of next week.

Temperatures on Friday will be above average with highs in the low to middle 60s. The cold front moves through and cools down the area for Saturday back into the low 50s. The warm front moves north for Sunday allowing temperatures to rise into the 60s to possibly low 70s for portions of NJ and NYC, though this particular day's highs will depend on the proximity of the warm front and any cloud cover. Otherwise, a generally cooling trend is expected through the middle of next week with highs Monday into the upper 50s and cooling down to the upper 40s to low 50s by Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Late Tonight: Sct shwrs and possibly a tstm with a cold frontal passage. Wind direction vrb with the front in the area.

Friday: Chance of MVFR in showers, especially in the morning along the coast.

Saturday: MVFR to IFR with showers likely. E wind gusts 15-20kt.

Sunday: IFR in the morning, becoming MVFR. A chance of showers. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Monday: MVFR with a chance of showers, mainly in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SE flow tonight increases to 15-20 kt with some gusts up to 25 kt, bringing marginal SCA cond to all ocean waters, with seas building to 5-6 ft.

As a warm front lifts through late tonight into Thu morning, expect sustained S winds 20-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt to develop, mainly on the ocean waters and the Long Island South Shore Bays, where SCA has been issued for daytime Thu. Ocean seas during this time should build to 5-8 ft. The other waters may see occasional gusts up to 25 kt, and it is possible that an SCA may be needed, especially for the central/ern Sound and the eastern bays.

There is a chance for dense fog on the waters Thu especially in the morning with the warm frontal passage.

SCA cond likely to continue on the ocean Thu night, with SW flow still gusting to 25-30 kt especially out east, and seas 5-8 ft.

Sub-SCA conditions are likely Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, an approaching frontal system will allow ocean seas to build above 5 ft, with SCA likely. Sheltered waters should remain below SCA. SCA conditions on the ocean likely continue through at least Monday.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts expected through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.