textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense fog advisory has been issued across most of Long Island and some of the local waters for early this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of dense fog and black ice for parts of the area early this morning.

2) Light snow accumulations today.

3) Mixed precip event likely for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

A warm-advection precip event is likely on Tuesday. A broad area of weak low pressure stretching westward through the Ohio Valley results in an approaching warm front. Its unclear if/when the front actually pushes through the forecast area, but what is more certain is that an elevated warm layer will shift into the region. Plenty of cold air will be in place at the onset of precip, with snow as the anticipated precip type. Due to the warm nose aloft, cannot rule out eventual freezing rain for inland areas. Freezing rain could be possible even for the city and urban corridor of NE NJ, owing to an earlier arrival of the precip. Thermal profiles slowly warm up through the day with precip across most of the area falling as plain rain in the afternoon.

As it stands, chances of eventual advisory issuances would more likely be related to freezing rain versus accumulated snowfall. Even if sufficient warm air precluding snow takes a longer time to arrive, snow amounts would probably remain below advisory thresholds. The higher threat of an advisory would appear to be over parts of the interior that may take longer to rise above freezing at the surface while the air aloft becomes too warm for snow growth.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening south to north. S wind G15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday - Thursday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain. Thursday S wind G15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A dense fog advisory has been issued for the Great South Bay and the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet for the pre-dawn hours.

Sub-advisory conditions are otherwise expected for the most part through Tuesday. Conditions may get close for a time on the ocean tonight with N flow gusting over 20 kt and seas up to 4 ft. Light freezing spray expected on the ocean waters tonight into Monday morning as well.

There are several weak waves of low pressure that will pass through later this week with winds and seas on the ocean getting to around SCA criteria Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then again at the end of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for NYZ078>081-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for ANZ345-350-353.