textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A gale watch is now in effect on the coastal waters Monday through Monday night.

No significant changes made to the potential of heavy showers, thunderstorms, and strong winds late Sunday night into Monday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Winds will subside this evening, leading to tranquil conditions into Sunday.

2) A strong frontal system brings potential of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and minor flooding along with strong winds late Sunday night into Monday night.

3) A mainly dry and unseasonably cold airmass settles into the area midweek.

KEY MESSAGE 3

High pressure gradually builds in through the middle of the week, bringing a colder and drier airmass to the area. Temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday night will run about 10 degrees below normal for mid-March.

While the flow weakens by Tuesday, gusts up to 30-35 mph are still expected. Deep mixing is seen in latest model soundings (about 800- 700mb in both the NAM and GFS), but winds at the top of the mixed layer will be gradually weakening and only look to be upwards of around 40kt at this time. The colder temperatures combined with gusty winds will keep wind chill values on Tuesday in the low 30s. Additionally, if winds lighten up quick enough Tuesday night, there is potential for low temperatures to end up a bit lower than forecast in the normal cool spots across the interior and LI Pine Barrens.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday PM: VFR. SE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday night: MVFR to IFR conditions to develop as showers work into the area, mainly after 03Z. Chance of thunderstorms toward daybreak. SE wind gusts near 20 kt, increasing to near 30 kt by daybreak Monday. Southerly LLWS likely, especially at the coastal terminals.

Monday: IFR or lower, with rain, heavy at times in the afternoon and early evening. A chance of thunderstorms. Winds become southerly early, with gusts 30-40 kt, highest at the coast. Peak gusts up to 45 kt possible along the coast late day into the evening. LLWS. Winds decrease slightly and become more westerly late Monday night, gusts 25-35 kt. Rain tapers off, possibly mixing with snow as it does so.

Tuesday: Rain/snow ends early in the morning. MVFR or lower possible early, improving to VFR by afternoon. WSW gusts 25 to 30 kt.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

The Gale Warning has been allowed to expire this evening, but has been replaced with a SCA for eastern waters as elevated seas and 25 kt gusts linger.

After a brief lull in conditions Sunday, winds and seas quickly increase Sunday night into Monday morning, ramping up further into Monday evening. SCA conditions are likely Sunday night, with a chance of gale force winds Monday into Monday night. There is a chance for storm force gusts on the ocean. Wind gusts in recent events with a strong inversion have come in lower than forecast. While this event will have higher winds below the inversion, not enough confidence to issue a storm watch at this time. Have issued a gale watch on the waters Monday through Monday night. Will continue to mention potential for storm force gusts in the HWO.

Gusty winds continue on Tuesday with SCA likely on all waters through the day. SCA conditions could continue on the ocean through potentially Wednesday morning as elevated seas linger. Sub SCA conditions expected thereafter through the end of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-340-345. Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.