textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances have been increased to likely for portions of the area tonight and Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Some rain, mainly light, is expected thru Saturday.

2) A slow-moving frontal system will lead to increasing rain chances mid-to-late week with decreasing temperatures. Thunderstorms are also a concern late Tuesday into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A large upper-level trough will gradually amplify over the Great Plains and Great Lakes Tuesday into Thursday, eventually traversing the region on Friday. Just east of this trough, a stalled front will remain situated to our north and west. Several waves of surface low pressure may pass along it, which will lead to several shots at rainfall mid to late week.

Tuesday will remain mostly under a ridge that gradually exits east. Higher heights will lead to warm temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to low 80s across the area. Wednesday will also remain mildly warm with highs in the 60s and low 70s.

Given warmer air, higher humidity, and a nearby frontal system, rain chances increase late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a chance for thunderstorms, as well.

On Thursday, the now amplified longwave trough nears the area which finally sends the main frontal system through the area. This leads to more widespread rainfall, but also cooler and milder temperatures Thursday going into Friday. The 13Z NBM is currently projecting mean 48-hr (Wed AM - Fri AM) rainfall around 1.00" with 90th percentiles around 1.50" to 2.00".

Winds become quite gusty as well with tightening pressure gradient between high pressure offshore and approaching frontal system Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there will likely be some limitations with the low level warm air advection and less favorable mixing environment.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday: Additional -SHRA possible late in the day for KISP and KGON. Light flow.

Sunday: VFR with NW flow 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt.

Monday: VFR with SW flow 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR with S flow 10 to around 15 kt, G20 to around 25 kt. MVFR or lower possible after 00Z.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in SHRA and TSRA. S flow 10 to around 15 kt, G20 to around 25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and waves will remain blw SCA lvls thru Sat. Low pres over the Atlc will bring winds close to SCA lvls on Sun, with seas on the ocean likely reaching 5 ft criteria. Increasing S flow on Mon may produce SCA cond on all waters Mon.

Tuesday through Wednesday, SCA conditions are possible due to an approaching frontal system with some possibility of low-end gales, as well.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.