textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Widely scattered thunderstorms possible Saturday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather into early Sunday, with areas of dense fog possible Saturday night. Showers likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday evening.

2) A warming trend early next week followed by two potential rounds of precipitation mid to late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A more persistent SW flow regime sets up early next week with a high pressure ridge intensifying to the southeast, almost like a Bermuda high type setup. This SW flow will allow for warmer air to move into the area resulting in a warming trend through at least the middle of next week. Monday will largely be the 60s, especially away from the coast. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures west of the NYC metro may climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Coastal areas and Long Island likely remain in the 50s with the cold water moderating the airmass. If there is more of a westerly component to the wind direction, warmer air could push further east until the occurrence of afternoon sea breeze development.

Rain so far appears to be likely Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front associated with nearby low pressure approaches and passes through. Instability is limited and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out Weds afternoon and evening, but did not stray from NBM and left out this mention. Impacts from this system are likely limited. After this, another wave of low pressure could bring a wintry mix that would probably change over to all rain late Friday into Friday night. Not anticipating much in the way of impacts with this system as cold air for wintry conditions appears to be limited.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday PM: Mainly IFR. Showers likely at night. SW gusts 15-20 kt at night.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in the morning, then VFR.

Monday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with rain likely.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

With a persist northeast flow over the ocean waters, and a departing low to the east of the waters ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet will remain elevated through Saturday with an easterly swell. Ocean seas may briefly fall below 5 feet Saturday afternoon, however, with an increasing southerly flow Saturday into Saturday night ahead of an approaching frontal system ocean seas and gusts will be increasing to SCA levels Saturday night, with gusts continuing into Sunday morning, and elevated seas continuing through Sunday. The SCA east of Fire Island Inlet was extended through 600 PM EDT Sunday, and a SCA was issued for the waters west of Fire Island Inlet for Saturday night, 600 PM EST to 600 PM EDT Sunday. SCA conditions likely continue on the ocean waters through most of Sunday night. For the non ocean waters winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory levels tonight through Sunday night. However, the south shore bays may see gusts near advisory levels briefly Saturday night.

Sub-advisory conditions are then likely Monday through Tuesday night with primarily S to SW sustained winds under 15 kts. Winds from the same direction then increase on Wednesday in association with low pressure approaching and passing through somewhere in the Northeast. SCA to potential gales are currently anticipated Weds in the Weds night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM EST Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.