textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Weak high pressure builds over the area into Sunday. A strong cold front will move through Sunday night ushering in a cold high pressure system for Monday into Tuesday. A couple of low pressure systems may impact the area the mid to late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Weak high pressure will gradually build in from the west overnight. The building in high pressure will allow for some weak CAA into the area under a light W/NW flow. Skies will be generally clearing tonight. Lows will be in the 20s with the immediate coast and the NYC metro remaining in the low 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

High pressure over the area on Sunday quickly translates east with increasing cloud cover by afternoon courtesy of a passing shortwave to the north. While cloud cover will increase and a weak southerly flow develops, no precipitation is expected in the area as the low passes to the north, though a stray flurry or light snow shower for northern areas isn't completely ruled out. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s inland to the lower 40s along and closer to the coast.

By evening, a strong cold front moves through allowing for a wind shift to the NW and strong CAA into the area. This is ahead of a strong and cold high pressure system building into the area for Monday and Monday night. Lows on Sunday night will be in the 20s for the entire area, though some outlying spots may drop into the upper teens. Wind chill values will make the air feel like it is in the teens along the coast and possibly single digits for northern locations.

Cold air settles over the area on Monday with high temperatures well below average. Afternoon highs are only expected to rise into the middle to upper 20s inland and into the low 30s along the coast. Despite mostly clear skies with ample sunshine during the day, the combination of brisk NW flow and cold air will allow for wind chill values to not rise out of the upper teens to lower 20s during the day.

High pressure moves more solidly over the area Monday night allowing for a decrease in the wind. Some radiational cooling is possible overnight but some high level clouds moving in may prevent temperatures from dropping more than forecast. Regardless, lows are expected to be some of the coldest of the season thus far with lows in the single digits for extreme NW portions of the area with teens expected just about everywhere else. Some spots near NYC may only drop into the low 20s. It is possible for some outlying spots to drop lower than forecast if clouds hold off for a bit longer than expected and wind goes calm at some point overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

NBM was followed with only minor changes made to winds.

Key Points:

* A series of quick-moving systems brings chances of precipitation, to the area late Tuesday night through Saturday. Precipitation types of mainly rain for the coast and a wintry mix inland.

* Temperatures below normal through the period except on Wednesday, when they'll be near normal.

* Conditions likely remain below warning and advisory thresholds.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases during the Thursday night- Saturday period. This is when model spread increases regarding the position and timing of low pressure centers/frontal boundaries that may impact the area. Chances of precipitation are at 50% or lower through the long term period.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Late Sunday night: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt.

Monday: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the afternoon and into the evening. S-SW gusts 20-25kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Sunday. An increase in the pressure gradient behind a cold frontal passage Sunday night will allow winds to increase to SCA criteria for much of the waters by Monday morning. Non-ocean waters likely fall below SCA conditions by Monday evening with the ocean waters falling below SCA conditions later at night.

SCA conditions are once again possible by Tuesday afternoon through much of next week as multiple low pressure systems could impact the area.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.