textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

While overall rainfall totals have decreased slightly, high hourly rates are still possible Monday afternoon into Monday night. There is still potential for isolated flash flooding.

Portions of northeast NJ and NYC are now in a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening.

Small Craft Advisory issued for the ocean waters, the NY Harbor and the South Shore Bays.

High Risk for Rip Currents issued for the ocean beaches of NYC, Nassau and western Suffolk

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated late day showers and a rumble of thunder possible, mainly across the interior.

2) Heavy showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night will bring the potential of urban and poor drainage flood impacts, as well as localized flash flooding. A severe thunderstorm can also not be ruled out.

3) Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Thursday and Friday.

4) A high rip current risk expected for late day Monday for the ocean beaches of NYC, Nassau and western Suffolk, and may be ongoing at all the ocean beaches into part of Tuesday morning. See Marine section for details.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Southwest flow aloft looks to set up by late Thursday into Friday ahead of the next shortwave/cold front. This would help to trigger the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms. Confidence is starting to increase that the greatest potential ends up on Friday when the shortwave axis is currently progged to move across the area. Any severe/hydro impacts are uncertain at this time since this is 5-6 days out.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday night: Mainly IFR with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. LLWS possible in the evening. Southerly wind gusts to near 20 kt.

Tuesday: IFR early with showers, improving conditions afternoon into evening. VFR eventually returns. NW wind gusts near 15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday: VFR with NW flow.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible at night with increasing chances of showers, becoming likely late north and west of NYC. A chance of thunderstorms. S wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into eve.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible. Showers likely for western terminals. Chance for showers elsewhere. A chance of thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts up to 20 kt possible in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A southerly flow will strengthen as low pressure approaches from the west. All waters except the Sound and Peconic/Gardiners Bays are now under a Small Craft Advisory from late Monday through Monday night. This is due to 25-30 kt gusts and 5-ft seas for the ocean waters. There is potential for the other waters to be added in subsequent forecasts.

Thereafter, winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria.

Rip Currents:

The rip current risk for the rest of today is moderate at the Suffolk beaches, where a 3-ft S swell @ 7 seconds persists.

On Monday, the rip current risk will be moderate for much of the day, then increase to high after 5 PM at the ocean beaches of NYC, Nassau and western Suffolk as S flow increases to 20 kt and associated wind waves build to 4-5 ft, at a time when lifeguards and beach patrols will be coming off duty. RCMOS forecast followed for the most part as it is well aligned with the trend in winds/seas.

The high risk will expand to all ocean beaches Mon night, and may still be ongoing into part of Tue morning especially at the Suffolk beaches, as residual 3-4 ft wind waves continue with winds still partly onshore. Otherwise, a mostly moderate risk expected for Tue as winds turn offshore and seas slowly subside.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ338-355. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ345-350-353.