textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with the forecast for the upcoming major winter storm and prolonged cold conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) A major winter storm will impact the region Sunday through at least early Monday. A widespread 10 to 16 inches of snowfall and significant travel disruptions expected.

2). Arctic air will remain over the region through next week. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for wind chills down to near -10 through noon.

3). Minor coastal flooding likely Sunday night around times of high tide.

KEY MESSAGE 3

As coastal low pressure passes nearby into Monday, ENE to NE winds may be sufficient to pile and elevate water levels enough to exceed minor coastal flood benchmarks during times of high tide late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Greatest chance for occurrence of this is along the more vulnerable shorelines of the Great South Bay, LI back bays, western LI Sound, and portions of the NY Harbor. A Coastal Flood Advisory may eventually be needed.

This appears to be a relatively short-lived threat, with water levels expected to lower below flood thresholds in subsequent tidal cycles. One mitigating factor from more significant or prolonged flooding is that water levels remain relatively low astronomically, sitting between new and full moon phases.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday-Sunday night: Sub IFR in heavy snow. Wintry mix of sleet and snow possible in the evening near the coast. Total snowfall of 10 to 16 inches expected. NE wind gusts 20-30 kt, strongest at the coastal terminals.

Monday: MVFR or lower with light snow possible. N-NW wind gusts 20- 25 kt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W wind gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Have converted all gale warnings this morning to SCA as winds gradually subside through the morning. The SCA will run a little longer on the ocean as seas may remain near 5 ft. Moderate freezing spray is also expected with the freezing spray advisory into the afternoon.

A brief lull in SCA conditions expected late this afternoon into tonight. Winds will increase on the waters later Sunday into Sunday night. A gale watch is in effect on all waters Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. SCA conditions are then likely Monday into Tuesday, with potential of gales on the ocean Monday night.

CLIMATE

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 24: KEWR: 15/1936 KBDR: 20/2014 KNYC: 6/1882 KLGA: 18/1987 KJFK: 19/1987 KISP: 19/2014

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ005>012. Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for CTZ005>012. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Freezing Spray Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355.