textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and increasingly mild conditions should continue into mid week.

2) The next chance of a wetting rain will be late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

There remains general agreement on a frontal system and/or low pressure affecting the area late in the week into the weekend with a wetting rainfall. The 00Z GFS timing suggests Fri and Sat the best chances for rain, but the NBM has not latched on to this trend yet. The AI-GFS is faster, which supports sticking with the NBM attm. Notably the AI-GFS is dry with the upr low at the end of the event, whereas the other modeling produces rain as the H5 low swings thru.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday afternoon through Monday night: VFR. SW winds up to or just above 10 kt during the afternoon, 5 kt or less at night.

Tuesday: VFR, SW winds.

Wednesday: VFR, SW to S winds.

Thursday: VFR more likely early, with the probability of MVFR or lower higher late in the day and at night for showers with MVFR or lower cond developing.

Friday: Sub VFR possible in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-SCA cond should continue on all waters through at least Wed night as high pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient. Hazardous seas over 5 ft are possible on the ocean waters out 20 nm Fri via increasing S-SE flow ahead of an approaching frontal system.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.