textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High temperatures for today increased by a significant amount across portions of the NY and CT coasts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Friday, and again Sunday afternoon and evening.

3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in much colder weather for the beginning of next week, including subfreezing temperatures Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Shwrs and embedded tstms likely on Sun with a cold fropa. Timing will determine the nature of any svr threat. The GFS and AI-GFS right now look a little too quick to support a big event with the front already into the area at 12Z. It is still a powerful upr low with a H3 jet modeled at 130+kt, so pcpn is still likely with the sys.

NW winds kick in behind the front and temps plummet by late in the day with lingering areas of rain. The cold pool aloft builds in Mon with 1000-500mb thicknesses around 520dam. The steep lapse rates should allow for at least isold-sct shwrs, possibly mixed with snow or ice pellets. The NBM pops may be a bit too low. Some spots across the interior may drop blw freezing Sun ngt, then much of the area could drop blw freezing Mon ngt. MGJ MOS climo is 39, and the MEX is already producing 29 Sun ngt and 25 Mon ngt.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly build to around 5 ft tngt, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA levels into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will likely bring SCA conditions Sunday and Monday.

CLIMATE

Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK:60/2002 KISP: 61/2002

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.