textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold weather advisories have been issued for the southern half of Northeastern New Jersey, the New York City metro, and Nassau County on Long Island for wind chills of 5 to 8 below zero late tonight into Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The unseasonably cold weather continues through this week, with cold weather advisories now in effect for portions of the area. Another round of cold weather headlines looks increasingly likely for later this week.

2) An coastal storm develops off the SE US Coast this weekend. It remains too soon to determine what, if any snow and wind impacts will occur from this storm system.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Regarding numerical weather prediction (NWP) showing the potential for a coastal storm for the second half of the weekend. The global deterministic consensus from NWP, and the ECMWF and GFS AI deterministic guidance suggests a very near miss for most of our area, with perhaps eastern portions of the area getting brushed with some snow and wind. However, there remain enough ensemble members of both the GFS and ECMWF that remain on the western half of the forecast envelope that it would be too soon to write this off and to say with any confidence what any impacts may be. This will have to be monitored over the next several days as forecast guidance is likely to wobble back and forth a bit.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late tonight: VFR. W wind gusts near 15-20 kt mainly along the coast.

Wednesday: VFR. WNW wind gusts near 15-20 kt in morning, mainly along the coast, subsiding in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR. WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday: VFR. WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect for the eastern half of Long Island Sound through early Wednesday morning. Small craft conditions will persist out on the ocean into Wednesday morning, with most of the non- ocean waters experiencing marginal small craft conditions during the same time frame. Another round of small craft conditions is expected for the ocean waters Thursday into Friday, with some of the nearshore waters also likely to experience at least marginal small craft conditions. Seas are then likely to begin to climb late Saturday into Saturday night with the potential for gale and small craft conditions to develop Saturday night as a coastal low develops south of the waters.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176>179. NJ...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ006-105>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ331-335-338-340-345. Freezing Spray Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331- 332. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ332-350- 353-355.