textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure situated offshore continues to slowly drift east today as a warm front will approaches. The warm front lifts north tonight, followed by a cold front Wednesday night. The area will then remain in between strong low pressure to the north and strong high pressure to the south and west from Thanksgiving Day through early Saturday. The high will build in for much of the weekend. A cold front may impact the area toward the end of the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Mid level shortwave trough approaches from the OH Valley today. Light overrunning rainfall ahead of the trough and a leading warm front should arrive by late day from the NYC metro area west, then overspread the rest of the area Tue evening. Sped up arrival time of precipitation by a couple of hours for today based on guidance of the mesoscale models brining in the rain earlier than was previously forecast.

Southerly flow and weak warm advection today will mean above normal temperatures today, with highs in the lower to middle 50s, perhaps some upper 50s in the warmest spots.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

A period of moderate rainfall expected as a 50 to 60 kt S-SW LLJ transports moisture and provides lift/convergence and some meager instability mostly below the freezing level. Because the instability will be limited to lower levels, have continued to keep thunder out of the forecast though there could still be a convective aspect to the precip at its peak via some meager H8-5 instability. The most likely time for this would be just ahead of the approaching cold front late in the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. SPC HREF shows just over 100 J/k mean MUCAPE moving into coastal areas Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Showery precip should continue at times in the warm sector Wed into Wed evening, then as vertically stacked low pressure crosses the upper Great Lakes, a trailing cold front will move across late Wed night, with precip ending and W winds picking up.

Stronger warm advection Tuesday night will mean temperatures will not drop much, with lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s for the most part.

Highs in the warm sector on Wed should reach the lower 60s in many spots before sharply falling off late Wed night to the 30s and lower 40s after cold fropa.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key Points:

* Windy conditions looking more likely Thanksgiving Day through Friday. Possibility for wind gusts 30-35 mph Thanksgiving Day, and 35-40 mph with isolated gusts up to 45 mph on Friday.

* Colder than normal temperatures expected Thanksgiving Day through Saturday with highs in the lower/mid 40s and wind chills in the 30s.

* Mainly dry through this period, with chances of rain toward the end of the weekend into early next week.

A large anomalous upper level low and trough continue to approach the area on Thursday. At the surface, strong low pressure will be passing to our north while strong high pressure sets up to our southwest. This places the area in a tight pressure gradient and will bring windy conditions Thursday through Friday. LREF ensemble shows about a 65% of wind gusts of greater than 30 mph between 7 am and 1 pm Thursday, though this probability drop to 30-40% with the NBM. So, there still some uncertainty regarding how strong winds will be Thursday. Regardless, peak winds are expected on Friday when deep mixing will allow for widespread gusts up to 35-40 mph. The NBM 90th percentile was used for gusts as the NBM has been under- doing winds in these deep mixing W-NW flow regimes. The forecast may continue to trend up. At this time Advisory level gusts are expected to be isolated.

High pressure eventually builds in and should be in control much of the weekend.

A cold front approaches late in the period and could bring some rain to end the weekend and start next week. Stuck with NBM PoP for now, but timing will be refined as we get closer.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR/IFR and showers in the morning and the afternoon. Low chance of return to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR more probable to linger with localized IFR possible.

Thursday through Friday: VFR. W flow with gusts 25-35 kt, highest on Friday.

Saturday: VFR. NW flow with gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria today. A warm front lifts through tonight, and S flow on the ocean should increase to 20-25 kt, with seas building to 5-6 ft, especially E of Fire Island Inlet. SCA issued from late Tue night into Wed for these conditions. There may be a bit of a lull in the winds on Wednesday, but waves will remain near 5 ft for much of the ocean waters through Wednesday night. Therefore, extended the SCA on all oceans waters through Wednesday night. Additionally, SCAs were issued for all non-ocean waters for Wednesday night as winds increase.

Gale force winds are possible on the ocean waters by Thu afternoon. By Fri, the ocean waters could see gusts up to 40 kt, while the non ocean waters see gusts up to 35 kt. Additionally, seas likely peak on Fri at 7-10 feet on the ocean, and 5-7 feet on central/ern Long Island Sound.

Conditions gradually start to improve Fri night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected by Sat afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

QPF from late day Tue into Wed evening has trended upward, with amts 1/3 to 3/4 inch. There could be local amts up to 1 inch. The bulk of the rainfall should occur Tue night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-340. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ335-338-345. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.