textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence is increasing in another shot of frigid air for this weekend with potential for cold weather headlines.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and continued cold through Thursday night.

2) An Arctic front will bring a chance for light snow on Friday, and another shot of frigid air for the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

An Arctic cold front likely to drop SE toward the area Fri into Fri night as a 490-ish dm H5 closed low drops SE from Hudson Bay and partially phases with an Alberta clipper disturbance also diving SE at the same time into the eastern CONUS. This combo will take on a negative tilt, with the closed low passing across the Northeast this weekend, driving the Arctic front through late Fri night and then inducing strong sfc cyclogenesis SE of New England.

In terms of sensible weather, some light snow showers will be possible mainly late Friday into Friday night. Snow at first may be light in a weak WAA regime and then become showery or squally with the passage of the front. Moisture is very limited with this system, any snow accumulation should be light and snow ratios will be high due to the cold air already in place.

Very cold and blustery conditions are likely after the frontal passage. Temps this weekend may not get out of the teens, with lows mostly below zero well inland and in the single digits closer to the NYC metro area and the coast. Wind chills will likely be as low as 5 to 10 below late Fri night, and at least 10 to 20 below if not a few degrees colder Sat night and Sunday night.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late tonight: VFR.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. Chc NW gusts 16-20kt Wed morning.

Friday: Afternoon and evening MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow. WNW gusts 30-40 kt late Friday night.

Saturday: VFR. NW winds 20-30kt with gusts 35-45 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Have cancelled SCA for the ocean as seas subside below 5 ft. Quiet conditions expected thereafter through Fri evening.

An Arctic cold frontal passage Fri night will bring strengthening winds and building seas, with NW gales likely late Fri night into Sat. Freezing spray could be moderate to heavy at times this weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.