textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Southwest wind gusts to 45 mph likely this afternoon into early evening, isolated 50 to 55 mph gusts possible. Gale conditions expected on local waters into this evening. Low potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms btwn 4 and 8pm, primarily across LoHud and interior S CT.

2) Dangerous rip currents expected at ocean beaches through Friday.

3) After a mainly dry (perhaps an instability shower Sat and/or Sun) and seasonably warm Fri-Sun, low pressure may bring a period of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms next Monday into Monday Night.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Global models continue in general agreement with a northern stream upper low drifting from southern Ontario into southern Quebec Mon into Tue. Meanwhile a PAC shortwave/vort train ejects into the central Plains and works eastward towards the region Monday into early Tuesday.

General agreement on resultant low pressure or a series of low pressure waves developing east of the Rocky Mountains on Saturday and tracking east along a stalled frontal boundary towards the region Monday into Tuesday.

Still a good amount of timing/location spread with northern stream low and PAC vorts, and possible convective error in the latter features, which will affect the strength and timing of low pressure/s. With that said, synoptic environment of moderate to strong moisture convergence from a +2-4 STD llj lifting a nearly 2" PWAT, warm cloud and potentially weakly unstable airmass over the region presents threat for a period of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms Monday into Monday Nigh. Ensemble probabilities are signaling moderate ensemble probabilities of >1" of rain in 24/hr, and low probabilities of 2" of rain in 24 hrs. Will have to monitor for an upward trend, with more specificity and impacts details as we get into the high-res CAM window this weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: VFR. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: MVFR or lower with rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms. S gusts 20 kt near the coast.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

S/SW gusts of 30-35 kt across all waters through into this evening with seas increasing to 6-8 feet on the ocean. Gusts of 35-40kt likely on nearshore waters into early evening. Low and isolated threat for strong to severe thunderstorms thru this evening.

Winds shift to more W by tonight and fall below SCA thresholds on all waters. Residual high waves on the ocean will allow the SCA to continue there through at least the day on Friday, gradually falling below Friday Night.

Marginal SCA gusts likely for nearshore waters on Friday, which may necessitate an SCA. SCA conditions remain possible for all waters Friday night into Saturday

Low pressure may affect the waters on Monday, with SCA conditions possible.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.