textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil weather with dry conditions, slightly below normal temperatures and comfortable humidity continues today.

2) Unsettled weather with periods of showers and possible thunderstorms late Monday into Thursday due to a slow moving frontal system.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Mean troughing will persist over the NE through next week. Shortwave energy moving around the periphery of western US ridging and will likely aid in the amplification of the trough Tuesday, with potential closed low development over the NE midweek.

High pressure moves offshore on Monday with weak surface troughing setting up in the vicinity. Some shortwave energy will likely move across the area Monday afternoon and evening. This will support the potential of showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mainly NW of the NYC metro. Moisture levels at this time are not impressive and shear is weak, so no concerns for any severe weather or flooding with this activity at this time.

A slow moving frontal system approaches Monday night into Tuesday. Low pressure is progged to develop along this front. Current models show the low either tracking over the area or south of the area over the mid-Atlantic, so there are still some differences in model solutions, leading to differences in the outcome of sensible weather through the middle of the week. The further N track would favor sending a line of showers and thunderstorms across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low pressure development S of the area may keep the area more stable, but still bring potential for locally heavy rain. The solutions that develop the low over the Mid Atlantic track it ENE along the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday with potential of a cooler/more stable environment and a steadier rainfall.

WPC has placed the region in a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Any severe threat will be predicated on extent of heating/instability on Tuesday, which remains on uncertain. Unsettled conditions continue on Wednesday, but placement/track of the surface low/upper low will play a huge role in the sensible weather outcome.

The proximity of the upper low and trough axis supports continued chances of showers and possibly a afternoon/evening thunderstorm Thursday. The trough may linger over New England to end the week with the latest model consensus probabilities for precip are low and largely confined to the interior.

Astronomical tides will also rise through the week with the approach of a full moon on Wednesday.

Near to slightly below normal for much of the week.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: VFR in the morning. MVFR possible in the afternoon and evening. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm from the NYC metros north/west.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. S winds G15-20kt.

Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. E winds 15- 20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Conditions will remain below SCA levels with high pressure over the region today. E-SE flow could gust up to 20 kt at times Monday afternoon. Ocean seas will remain around 3 ft. SCA conditions are likely to return to the ocean waters and possibly to all waters Tue-Wed, but will be dependent on timing of a frontal system and possible low development. Lingering elevated seas could continue on the ocean into Thursday, mainly from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Monday at ocean beaches with a 3-4 ft E-SE wind wave/swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.