textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A weak surface low pressure system near the Middle Atlantic coast will slowly track north through tonight. The low will weaken tonight as it pushes south and east of the area through Thursday. A cold front passes across the area Friday. High pressure builds across the Northeast through Saturday and then offshore by Sunday, but maintaining ridging across the area through the first half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Updated forecast to mainly lower rain chances across the area tonight into the overnight. This is based on latest radar and high res models. Much of the rain to the south across the ocean and into NE NJ seems to be related to a deformation zone to the NW of the upper low. Overall, the system will continue to weaken and lift to the NE along with the showers/light rain/drizzle. Still a mention of a slight chance of thunder, mainly for LI and Southern Ct. Rainfall amounts should generally be under a tenth of an inch, but localed higher amounts possible with stronger convection

Lows will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/

Any showers associated with the departing low will be diminishing by Thursday morning. Overcast skies in the morning are expected to become mostly sunny by the afternoon with a quick rise in temperatures thereafter. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

A weak cold front will approach the area from the west late Thursday and eventually pass by overnight. This will shift the wind to the NW but not do much else in terms of sensible weather. Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Points:

*A dry cold frontal passage on Friday will be followed by high pressure, which will remain in control through the first half of next week.

*Temperatures will be slightly below normal this weekend, but start trending warmer early next week.

*No precipitation is currently expected.

NBM closely followed during this forecast period.

A digging upper trough across eastern Canada and into the Northeast will send a cold front through the area on Friday. The frontal passage is forecast to be dry and will bring in a cooler, drier airmass for the weekend. Highs will be around 70 for the weekend with an easterly flow on Saturday veering to the SE/S on Sunday as high pressure builds to the east of the area. Lows will generally be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, but closer to 60 in and around the NYC metro.

Operational globals all continue to have varied solutions heading into next week with how they handle Pac Jet energy moving in the PAC NW and western Canada early next week. The 12Z GFS and 06Z ECMWF close off an upper low over the Northern Plains by the middle of the week, while the Canadian is much more progressive with a sheared out upper trough approaching the eastern seaboard. The GEFs mean supports more progression than the operational. For the time being, the western periphery of the western Atlantic ridge looks to maintain enough ridging to keep conditions mainly dry through the period. In addition, a backing upper flow ahead of the troughing over the mid section of the country will allow for a warmup through the middle of next week. A frontal wave off the southeast coast on Monday does not look impactful at this time.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: VFR.

Friday through Monday: VFR.

MARINE

SCA has been extended into the early morning hours with slightly stronger winds and seas a bit slower to subside.

Elevated seas on the ocean with some gusts up to 25kt remaining possible will allow for SCA conditions through the first part of tonight. As the wind weakens, seas will subside to below SCA by Thursday morning. Winds and seas will then remain below SCA levels through Friday evening.

Building high pressure to the north Friday night into Saturday may produce winds around 20 kt on the ocean waters with seas of building to around 4 ft. Winds and seas subside later Saturday and remain below SCA levels through Monday.

HYDROLOGY

There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

With a subsiding ESE swell and weak offshore winds, the rip current risk will decrease to low for the NYC and Nassau beaches for Thursday, and moderate for Suffolk. A low risk is expected for all beaches Friday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.