textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty WNW winds increase this afternoon with scattered rain or snow showers possible. Gusts persist through tonight before diminishing Monday morning.

2) Cold front arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a return to cold temperatures.

3) Forecast uncertainty remains high Thursday and Friday around coastal low development.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The longwave pattern amplifies as a ridge out west sharpens, and the trough in the east amplifies Wednesday night into Thursday. This amplification is supported by the consensus of global NWP guidance. In addition, as the trough amplifies, low pressure is expected to develop along this trough however at this time, there is too much uncertainly with any timing, position and strength of storm development. We will have to continue to see how this develops. Suffice it to say there remains a chance of a strong storm system to impact the region Thursday night into Friday. With much uncertainty during this period, will stick to the NBM POPs.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Afternoon: VFR. WSW wind G20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind G15-20 kt possible in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain showers.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain or snow showers. More widespread rain changing to snow possible at night.

Friday: MVfR or lower possible in morning snow. N-NW wind G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters tonight with gusty WNW flow. Gale conditions end by Monday morning with SCA conditions expected on all waters that end by the afternoon for the non-ocean waters. SCA conditions likely persist into at least the first half of Monday night. Sub-SCA then expected through Tuesday before increasing winds Tuesday night bring SCA conditions back to the ocean waters.

Small craft conditions are likely on the ocean waters for much of the second half of next week. SCA conditions will be possible at times on the non-ocean waters, with the best chance Wednesday and again Thursday night into Friday as a coastal low may impact the waters late in the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.