textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes made.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A couple of rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms from Thursday night into Saturday. Severe and flash flooding impacts are not anticipated at this time.
2. Summer heat likely returns next week, with potential for unsettled conditions at times.
KEY MESSAGE 2
The frontal system impacting the region to start the weekend looks to work far enough south by Sunday to allow surface high pressure to drop down from Canada and cause conditions to dry out. Meanwhile, mid level ridging begins to amplify over the Midwest, with the local area straddling the eastern periphery of this ridge.
Plenty of uncertainty with the strength and positioning of the ridge as it attempts to build east. Digging trough over the Western Atlantic may try to close off as the operational GFS and EC depict, which would lead to a cooler, more unsettled pattern. Conversely, their AI counterparts both offer shallower, more transient troughing that favors warmer weather with a quicker eastward expansion of the ridge. Adding to the low confidence is the possibility of any ridge rollers coming down into the area, producing more in the way of convection and muted temperatures.
NBM spread captures this uncertainty well, with 15+ degree separation between the 25th and 75th percentile high temperatures mid next week. For now, increasing confidence in seasonable summer heat returning early week, with at least the possibility for hotter weather mid to late next week, though many solutions still on the table.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Thursday night: VFR early, then increasing chance of sub VFR with MVFR becoming likely late in showers. Chance of a thunderstorm late mainly for city and western terminals.
Friday-Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with showers at times.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Sub-advisory conds are expected to prevail through the forecast period.
Rip Currents:
A moderate risk of rip currents remains in place both Thursday and Friday with 2 to 3 ft southerly swells at 5-7 sec periods.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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