textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small craft advisories have been discontinued for the western and central ocean zones.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Quick moving low pressure passes to the north Tuesday into Wednesday.

2) Minor coastal flood benchmarks could be briefly reached along some vulnerable portions of the coastline during the Tuesday morning/early afternoon high tide cycle.

3) A strong frontal system could produce thunderstorms on Friday, then strong winds and much colder temperatures over the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Global models have been consistently indicating a strong cold frontal passage for the end of the week.

The 12Z GFS, CMC, ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and the AI-GFS all have the timing of the front sometime between Friday afternoon and very early Saturday morning. There will be good shear with the system, however the amount of instability will depend on the timing of the front and any maritime cloud cover. As a result, confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms is low at this time. However, due to the setup, especially with a potential 170+ kt H3 jet over ON/QC, it will need to be watched.

Confidence is higher for strong winds and colder temperatures behind the fropa and into the weekend. Deep mixing on nwly flow could push winds to advy levels. In addition, some subfreezing temps will be possible as thicknesses plummet. For Sat night, the NBM has lows in the 30s for almost the entire area. The MEX however is even colder with widespread upr 20s despite the wind. Because the cold airmass appears to be highly transitory, did not stray from the NBM at this time.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Night: MVFR possible with a brief rain shower, mainly east of NYC terminals. Occasional SW gusts 15-20 kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Westerly gusts 15-20 kt mainly during the day.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Late at night, possible MVFR or lower with increasing likelihood of showers.

Friday: MVFR or lower with showers. S-SW wind gusts near 20-25 kt with some peak gusts near 30 kt. NW gusts near 30 kt at night.

Saturday: VFR. NW gusts near 25-35 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds will continue to diminish as low pressure tracks further away from the waters. The SCA has been discontinued for the western and central ocean waters as seas have fallen closer to 4 feet. The SCA is in effect for the eastern ocean thru tonight for lingering high seas at around 5 ft.

Winds and seas may hit SCA criteria on the ocean late Tue into Wed with a weak frontal system moving by. The remaining waters are expected to remain below SCA levels at this time.

A strong frontal system will then impact the waters Friday and Saturday. SCA conditions are likely on all waters for Friday, then NW gales are possible on all waters behind the system Friday night and into the weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.