textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous rip currents expected Thursday into early Thursday evening.

2) Breezy conditions with the potential for severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

3) Rain, potentially heavy early next week with thunderstorms possible Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Low pressure is expected to approach from the south towards early next week. Onshore flow will make for relatively cooler temperatures across the region. Shower chances start late Sunday night, become most likely Monday and taper off early Tuesday. Rain could potentially be heavy at times with slight chance of thunderstorms Monday. PWATS could approach near 1.75 inches for Monday across the coastal areas.

Subsequent forecasts will likely have timing changes as there is uncertainty with model placement of precipitation and low pressure.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday PM: Showers and thunderstorms possible thru late afternoon, MVFR/IFR possible. S/SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, strongest near the coast. Winds begin to lighten in the evening.

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 20 kt.

Saturday: VFR. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday-Monday: MVFR or lower at times with rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions through tonight. Winds and seas both increase to above SCA thresholds late tonight into Thursday morning. A southerly flow will fairly quickly develop by 6AM with gusts increasing to a peak around 30-35 kt through the day on all waters with seas increasing to 6-8 feet on the ocean. While 35+ kt gusts will be possible, they should be infrequent enough to prevent the issuance of gales. Thunderstorms will also be possible early Thursday afternoon which could bring 35kt gusts or higher.

Winds shift to more W by THursday evening and fall below SCA thresholds on all waters. Residual high waves on the ocean will allow the SCA to continue there through at least the night and possibly into the day on Friday, especially for eastern zones. Sub- SCA conditions look likely on all waters by Friday night lingering through the weekend.

Low pressure may impact the waters on Monday, with SCA conditions possible.

Rip Currents:

Today, the rip current risk is moderate due to SE flow increasing to around 10kt and waves around 2 ft.

For Thursday, the rip current risk is high with strong S winds and waves around 4-6 ft.

For Friday, the rip current risk is moderate to high with lingering swell and gusty W winds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.