textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Calmer winds through late week, with a chance of a few snow showers early Saturday morning.

2) The probability for a light accumulating snowfall Sunday night into Monday remains low, but continue monitoring subsequent forecasts as inherent uncertainty remains in this time range.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM model guidance continue to be in general agreement with northern stream shortwave and southern stream low remaining unphased, with a progressive west to east movement of a southern low and secondary development along the the Mid Atlantic coast and offshore. There has been run to run and model to model consistency for a few runs at this point. This prevailing scenario at this point would only bring a brief and light snow (possibly mixed with rain NYC/NJ metro and LI), from northern stream shortwave lift briefly expanding northern edge of precip shield.

ECMWF/GFS/GEM NWP ensemble means, ECMWF AI, and GFS AI also in general agreement with keeping low pressure well south of the region, with ECMWF mean exhibiting the most development. There are still a small percentage of members, mostly ECMWF, that are indicating a farther north and/or more amplified solution bringing low chance probs for a 1-3" snowfall, although these probs have wavered up and down over the last 24 hours. Very slight probs (less than 10%) of this scenario with GEPS and GEFS. Interestingly, the GEFS plumes show a slight increase in snow for KLGA with the 06Z run, with a mean of around 2", with 10% of the members showing warning level snow and about 15% showing advisory level or higher. With the ECMWF ensemble, the 50th percentile and lower show no snow across the forecast area, while the 90th shows warning level for Long Island, NYC, northeast NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible early.

Friday night: MVFR or lower possible with chance of snow showers.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of snow showers. Otherwise mainly VFR. WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday night and Monday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow. Chances of snow lower Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory continues on all waters thru the rest of the day. NW winds gust to 25 kt into early evening, then lightening into tonight. Ocean seas fall under 5 ft during this time as well.

Sub-advisory conditions then persist through Sunday as high pressure builds south and west of the waters. Low potential for SCA conditions with low pressure passing to the south and east Sunday night into Monday, but still inherent uncertainty at this point. Thereafter, winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.