textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and localized flash flood threat during the afternoon and evening both today and Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy today and Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday.

2) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably warm temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2

General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday.

This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR conditions in any showers that develop, otherwise, VFR.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions expected today and Fri with modest S/SW flow of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft.

Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into Monday with high pressure building towards and then over the waters.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering 1-3 ft SE/E swells.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.