textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

The area remains between strong low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure west of the Appalachians. As low pressure passes to the north tonight, a trailing cold front will approach. The front will then move through on New Year's Day while the low intensifies east of New England. Another cold front will approach but remain to the north Friday night into Saturday as low pressure passes well south. High pressure will build into the area Sunday into Monday. A warm front will approach Monday night as the high moves to the east.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

W flow will back more to the WSW today and still gust to 20-25 mph. Meanwhile weakly cyclonic flow and passage of a mid level shortwave trough will promote clouds through much of the day, with some clearing late mainly E of NYC. After AM lows in the 20s, temps will rise to 30-35 this afternoon, which is still well below normal.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* An approaching cold front will result in light snow tonight into early New Year's Day.

* Brisk and colder conditions expected for New Year's Day into Friday night as low pressure intensifies east of New England.

As a closed low moves from Ontario into upstate NY and QUebec tonight, sfc low pressure will develop over upstate NY tonight and move into New England after midnight. Low level WAA ahead of a trailing cold front approaching the area will generate some light snow mainly from late evening into the overnight and early daylight hours, especially over S CT and ern Long Island, where at least an inch of accumulation is likely, possibly up to 2 inches across SE CT and the forks of Long Island. Given SW flow and WAA ahead of the cold front can't rule out a brief mix with rain across the forks of Long Island and far SE CT, but attm think precip intensity may be enough to keep wet bulb temps aob freezing and p-type mostly if not all snow.

Farther west, accumulations look to be on the lighter side, less than an inch.

Low temps tonight will range from the upper teens well NW of NYC to the 20s elsewhere.

On New Year's Day, as the low deepens E of New England, the cold front should pass through early, with winds shifting NW and increasing, with gusts 30-35 mph in the afternoon in the NYC metro area and along the coast. High temps in the NYC metro area and along the coast will be in the lower 30s, and 25-30 inland. Continued CAA will lead to a cold/brisk night Thu night, with lows from the teens to lower 20s, and wind chills bottoming out in the single digits. High temps on Fri look similar to those of New Year's Day.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Points:

* Cold continues into Monday, with much of the interior remaining below freezing.

* Some moderation is expected for Tuesday after a warm frontal passage.

Cold front should remain to the north Fri night into Sat while low pressure passes well south. This will keep us dry and cold into early next week, with high pressure finally building in Sunday into Monday. As the high slides E Mon night, a SW return flow should develop and a warm front approach from the SW, bringing some precip, mostly as light snow, but with perhaps a rain/snow mix across ern Long Island and SE CT. Little accumulation expected at any rate with QPF less than 1/10 inch. Temps finally moderate closer to normal on Tue after warm fropa.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday afternoon: VFR.NW winds G25-30kt.

Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt.

Saturday - Monday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gale warning replaced with SCA out east. SCA now in effect for the ocean waters through tonight, and for the remaining waters into the overnight tonight. With some near shore locations still gusting up to 25 kt today it is likely the SCA may need to be extended into at least part of the daytime hours for NY Harbor and the Long Island South Shore Bays. Seas 5-10 ft on the ocean should diminish to 5-8 ft by daybreak and 3-5 ft by afternoon.

SCA cond continues on the ocean tonight as SW flow gusts to 25-30 kt and seas build to 5-8 ft.

Gale watch issued for the ocean waters for daytime Thu as NW winds increase after cold fropa and as low pressure intensifies E of New England, with gusts up to 35 kt possible. SCA cond likely on all other waters with gusts 25-30 kt.

SCA cond expected thereafter for the ocean waters into Fri evening, and for the ern Sound/bays into Thu night or early Fri morning.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355.