textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small craft advisories have been expanded to include the NY Harbor, LI Bays, and Eastern LI Sound for this afternoon into tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm conditions today ahead of showers and a cold front passage tonight into Friday morning.

2) Mainly dry weather Friday night through early next week with unseasonably cold conditions Saturday, trending milder into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Cold advection begins Friday night with the trough axis passing across the area through early Saturday morning. There have been some subtle signals in the guidance for an area of very light precip development associated with the trough passage, mainly near the southern half of the area. Moisture is limited during this time frame, but lift may be sufficient to squeeze out some light rain that could mix with some wet snow flakes. Probabilities remain low and no significant precipitation is expected given the limited moisture.

Otherwise, the main story to start the weekend will be the unseasonably cold for Saturday. Strong cold advection will lead to a breezy and chilly day for late March. Wind chills early Saturday may get as cold as the upper teens and lower 20s, with daytime max temperatures only getting to around 40 to 45 which is about 10 degrees below average for March 28. High pressure builds over the region Saturday night, with most places falling below freezing. Lows range from the mid 20s inland to around 30 degrees closer to the coast.

The cold air mass begins to moderate on Sunday. A return flow out of the SW will help get temperatures closer to seasonal averages Sunday into Monday. A frontal system may then set up near the region Tuesday and Wednesday next week. The positioning of the front is a bit uncertain at this time range, but there is a chance for warmer conditions, especially away from the immediate coast, Tuesday into next Wednesday if the boundary were to set up to our north.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers along the coast early. N winds gust around 20kt, highest in the morning.

Saturday-Monday: VFR. SW gusts around 20kt Monday afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Southerly flow increases this morning allowing SCA conditions to develop on the ocean. These winds will gradually expand to the NY Harbor, LI Bays, and eastern LI Sound this afternoon and continue into tonight. Have expanded the SCA to include these waters. Winds should be a bit weaker on the western and central LI Sound, so have held off on the issuance of an SCA here. Winds will gradually subside late tonight behind a cold front passage, but ocean seas will remain elevated into Friday. Therefore, the SCA on the ocean will run through early Friday evening. Winds and seas will then remain below SCA levels Friday night.

There is a chance SCA conditions develop on Saturday. Otherwise, conditions should remain below SCA levels Saturday night through Sunday night. SCA conditions likely return next Monday with an increasing SW flow.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ332-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.