textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed mention of isolated minor coastal flooding as high tide has passed for the most vulnerable locations.

Updated key message 1 for current conditions.

Updated aviation section for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonably warm conditions through midweek.

2) There is a low probability of showers Wednesday night into Thursday, but otherwise dry conditions continue into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Models continue to signal a progressive, positively tilted, upper trough sliding across the Great Lakes into the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. A cold front will move into the area during this time period with weak forcing due to much of the lift passing well to our north and west. There are some signals for an amplifying jet streak to our north on Thursday, which could develop a fast moving frontal wave as the cold front moves through the region. Probabilities for showers has increased a bit on Thursday, but still in the chance range. Even if this system were to develop and bring showers Thursday, it will likely be fast moving, limited any potential for significant impacts.

The cold front and upper trough axis move offshore Thursday night with high pressure returning to the northeast Friday into next weekend. This will lead to dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures to end the week into the start of next weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt and showers possible with MVFR night.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in SHRA. SW/W gusts around 20 kt possible.

Friday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Tuesday with high pressure over the waters. SW winds will then increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind gusts may approach 25 kt on the ocean Wednesday afternoon and then spread to the rest of the nearshore waters Wednesday night. These winds will continue into Thursday, and there is a chance of gale force gusts late Wednesday night into Thursday east of Fire Island Inlet. Will mention this potential in the HWO. Ocean seas build to 5-8 ft Wednesday night into Thursday, and there is a chance for waves on the LI sound to become 3-4 ft. Winds and seas gradually Thursday night into Friday.

Rip Currents:

A lack of significant wind or swell under building high pressure will lead to a low rip current risk Labor Day into Tuesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.