textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes overall.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The humidity lowers today, with pleasant, dry, and cooler weather to begin the weekend.

2) Wet weather increasingly likely for the second half of the weekend. Isolated to scattered impacts related to flooding possible.

3) High uncertainty as to the degree of unsettled weather Monday through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Most NWP and AI derived guidance has the front getting south of the area on Monday. This will get the region on the cooler and more stable side of the frontal boundary. How far south the boundary gets will ultimately determine if Monday remains primarily dry, or if light shower activity will linger. High pressure attempting to build from the north may dry out the low levels some. A cool east to northeast flow regime along with cloud cover should keep daytime temperatures below seasonal norms Monday through Wednesday. Low pressure develops offshore by mid week and with a blocky and less progressive upper level pattern in place the mid to late week will feature a good deal of clouds with rain chances. However the timing of precipitation will be difficult with disagreement among forecast models around the synoptic details. Much of the model guidance is now suggesting the upper level low closing off over the northeast later in the week, suggesting clouds and the potential for more unsettled weather late in the week also. Forecast confidence day to day remains below average for much of next week.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday Afternoon: VFR.

Saturday Night: Showers move in late Saturday night with MVFR possible, north and west of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

Sunday: Showers expected, potentially heavy at times. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. MVFR or lower at times. Southeasterly wind gusts near 15-20 kt Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, especially at the coastal terminals.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chances of showers. N-NE wind gusts near 20 kt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible at times. A chance of showers. NE wind gusts 20-25 kt Tuesday and to 20 to 30 kt Wednesday, highest at the coastal terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub advisory conditions prevail through this evening. A brief period of small craft wind gusts are expected on the central and eastern ocean waters late tonight and early Saturday morning. This should subside towards towards Saturday afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. A better chance at prevailing and more widespread small craft conditions develops by early Monday morning primarily for the ocean waters. By Monday night small craft conditions should spread into all marine zones. Gale conditions become likely out on the ocean by early Tuesday morning and may spread into the non-ocean zones into mid week on a ENE flow and wave heights on the ocean eventually climbing above 10 ft.

Rip Currents: The winds will be offshore and out of the NNW today with a moderate rip risk trending towards low later this afternoon. The risk should remain low on Saturday with a wind more out of the ENE and parallel to the ocean beaches.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.