textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry with near normal temperatures through mid-week.

2) A widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday night into Thursday, with a cooler pattern then in place through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Global dynamical and AI-based ensemble systems continue to advertise anomalously low H5 heights over the East late this week, with stubborn troughing thanks to strong blocking setting up between the Canadian Maritimes and Greenland. The strength and placement of these features will help drive the sensible weather locally through the weekend.

Ahead of this, an advancing frontal system leads the incoming trough, with shortwave energy rounding the trough helping to instigate a surface wave of low pressure along the boundary. This will bring a widespread rainfall as the system passes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with potential for the rain to linger later into the day. QPF has trended upwards since the last forecast update, now looking to average around one inch through Thursday, with NBM V5 90th percentile around 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Hydrological concerns appear minimal, and should largely prove beneficial with NYC, NE NJ, and the LoHud Valley in moderate drought.

Thereafter, still some uncertainty with additional chances for rain into the weekend, but for now, increasing confidence in cooler than normal conditions late this week into early next, with daytime highs mid to late week largely in the 50s and low 60s, and chances for wet weather at times, though a washout appears unlikely.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Late Tonight - Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday Night-Thursday: MVFR or lower with showers tapering off late Thursday. Slight chance of thunder. NW gusts 15-20 kt Thursday.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers. NW gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small Craft Advisories remain in place for ocean waters through Tuesday due to a lingering 5ft swell from an offshore low. This may continue into Tuesday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on Wednesday. Winds and seas may return to SCA levels on Thursday and remain so into Friday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.