textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will bring the relatively mild spell of weather to an end by Thursday. Single digits wind chills are expected Thursday night.

2) A series of weak frontal systems will bring possible occasional light snow this weekend within an increasingly cold airmass developing across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A series of surface lows traverse the Great Lakes with their associated frontal systems moving across the region for the weekend.

Aloft, a mean trough remains across the Northeast with multiple enhancements to associated jet stream SW to NE from Southeast US through the Northeast this weekend into early next week. Models indicate 850mb temperatures and airmass overall getting increasingly cold this weekend into early next week.

While forcing remains weak with lack of offshore cyclogenesis, there will be low chances of snow from time to time this weekend. The POPs are low, less than 30 percent. Amounts for any snow look to be light in the forecast with a majority of the time expected to be just mainly dry and cold.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday: MVFR possible with possible rain showers, otherwise VFR. Rain showers become more likely at night with a higher chance of MVFR and perhaps occasional IFR conditions as some snow is forecast to mix in.

Thursday: Possible light rain/snow early with MVFR to IFR possible. Otherwise VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday: VFR. W-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR/IFR at times with possible snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small craft conditions linger early this morning for the eastern most ocean waters. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail for most of today. However, a SW flow increases later in the afternoon and small craft conditions return for the ocean waters, and for the south shore bays and far eastern portions of LI Sound during the late afternoon into tonight. Small craft seas may linger out on the eastern ocean waters during a portion of Wednesday, otherwise sub advisory conditions should prevail late in the day and into Wednesday evening. As a cold front approaches late Wednesday night and Thursday morning a wind shift occurs with a cold front and a W wind increases. Small craft conditions will prevail towards midday for all waters and could continue through all of Thursday night, especially out on the ocean and for the eastern non-ocean waters.

Potential SCA conditions especially on the ocean Friday through the weekend. Gusts could occasionally get close to SCA levels on some of the non-ocean waters in the same time period but overall, anticipating mainly sub-SCA conditions for the non-ocean waters.

EQUIPMENT

KOKX Doppler Radar is out of service.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ332-345. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.