textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Areas of black ice have been observed and an SPS was issued.

The wave of low pressure early next week has trended towards a less impactful event with latest guidance passing the bulk of the precipitation to our south. A few inches of snow accumulation can not be completely ruled out yet.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of black ice this morning.

2) Low pressure passes to the south of the area today bringing a slight chance of light snow.

3) Scattered snow showers expected Saturday night into Sunday along an arctic front with a low potential for squall activity mainly north and west of NYC. Colder than normal temperatures expected behind this front Sunday night through Monday night.

4) A couple of waves of low pressure move nearby next week bringing multiple chances for precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 4

A couple of waves of low pressure bring multiple chance for precipitation next week.

The first would arrive sometime Monday into Tuesday. High pressure will be centered just to the northwest of the area and another wave of low pressure tries to cut under the high. The GFS and GEFS had been the most aggressive and farthest north with this wave, but the 00z run has come in closer in line with the Canadian and ECMWF which are farther south. There are also some timing differences with the GFS being on the earlier side (Monday). The GEFS precip accum mean has gradually trended down the past 4 runs and now has a mean of 0.15 to 0.25 inches. While this is trending towards a less impactful event, a few inches of snow accumulation can not be completely ruled out yet.

The high then pushes east and yet another wave looks to move through mid-week. This continues to look like a warmer situation with likely a front end snow changing over to rain.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday - Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with light snow. N/NW winds G15-20 kt.

Monday: MVFR or lower with a chance of snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

The Small Craft Advisory for the western ocean zone has been cancelled as seas are below 5ft and will continue to trend down. SCA remain in effect for the other ocean zones today.

Conditions remain largely below SCA criteria through the weekend. With a few waves of low pressure moving through SCA conditions are possible early to mid next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ353.