textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers likely across Long Island and SE CT overnight with isolated to scattered elsewhere.

2) Unsettled weather expected mid to late week with the highest probability of showers late Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold front will pass through the area this evening. A weak wave should form along the front in advance of a 250 mb jet streak approaching from the Ohio Valley. The wave will pass to the south and east. Showers may become a bit more numerous, especially from across Long Island and then into southeast Connecticut. CAMs still support this scenario for likely PoPs across these areas tonight into the early morning hours. The showers will largely be on the light side, although a few pockets of brief moderate rates are possible. Average QPF is generally around a tenth of an inch or less.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure and its associated mid level shortwave will dive SE into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night. This system will carve out a deeper mid-upper level trough over the eastern States mid to late week. The low pressure and its associated frontal system will likely impact the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Modeling has differed over the last few days with how quickly the mid-upper trough will move across the northeast. The trough may not completely push offshore until at some point on Friday.

Unsettled conditions are expected by late Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. There is a chance these conditions may persist into Friday, depending on the timing of the upper trough. Showers with this system may arrive Wednesday afternoon, with the most likely time for organized showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Chances for showers could linger Thursday night into Friday. Consensus approach argues for rainfall of around one half inch, but localized amounts could be higher in any convection, late Wednesday into Thursday. Any rain beyond Thursday likely will be scattered and with light amounts.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out Monday night.

Wednesday: Showers developing through the day. MVFR or lower conditions. S winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday-Friday: Showers possible with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A SCA is in effect on the ocean through 2 am west of Moriches Inlet and to 8 am east of Moriches Inlet. Swells 5-6 ft are likely to continue during this time frame. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels through early Wednesday. An approaching cold front will increase winds and build seas, bringing the next chance for 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas on the ocean Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Winds on the non-ocean may also reach 25 kt. These conditions could linger into early Thursday, but subside below SCA to end the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353-355.