textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible once again late this afternoon and evening.

2) Hot and humid conditions continue through this evening with a Heat Advisory remaining in effect for much of the region.

3) Potential for more strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday late afternoon and evening.

4) Minor coastal flooding possible this weekend into early next week during evening high tides.

KEY MESSAGE 4

With a new moon phase coming up this weekend, astronomical tide levels will be higher. With increasing onshore flow this weekend, the forecast surge is expected to increase and total water levels could reach just beyond minor coastal flood benchmarks during times of high tide.

The evening high tide cycle looks to be the higher of the total water level forecasts according to some surge forecast models. This minor coastal flooding could linger into early next week as well for those evening high tides.

With both Long Island Sound and South Shore Bay locations as well as Montauk showing possible minor coastal flooding, coastal flood advisories could very well be needed in subsequent forecast updates for this weekend. For now, with potential for isolated minor coastal flooding during high tide tonight, issued coastal flood statements for Southern Nassau South Shore Bays as well as Southern Fairfield CT shoreline.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR initially. Then, showers becoming more probable afternoon into night with MVFR or lower possible at times. Thunderstorms are possible as well. S-SW wind gusts near 20-25 kt afternoon into evening. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.

Monday: Showers ending early with MVFR or lower possible. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Possible W-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Light flow of 5 to 15 kts is expected through Saturday and Small Craft Advisory headlines are not expected at this time. Winds will be southwesterly through this evening before shifting to the northwest behind a cold front.

There is potential for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday into Sunday night with an increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front. This will likely be real marginal and mainly for the ocean waters, with 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft seas.

Rip Currents...

For today, a SW flow around 10kt and a 3ft 6s swell from the south will combine to bring a moderate risk of rip currents for southern Nassau and southern Suffolk. The risk for NYC beaches is low, with a bit of a weaker swell. It is marginal overall for all beaches, but RCMOS helped lean towards increasing the risk.

The risk lowers to low on Saturday with a west wind under 10 kt and a lingering 2 ft southerly swell.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

June 12: KEWR: 97/2017 KBDR: 93/2017 KNYC: 93/2017 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 91/2017

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 12: KEWR: 74/1973 KBDR: 69/1973 KNYC: 76/2017 KLGA: 76/2017 KJFK: 73/1970 KISP: 70/1973

June 13: KEWR: 74/2005 KBDR: 71/2017 KNYC: 77/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 72/2017 KISP: 70/1969

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>010. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-078- 080-176>179. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ078>081-177-179. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...None.