textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periodic rain showers possible late tonight into Saturday.

2) High heat and humidity becoming increasingly likely from mid to late next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A highly anomalous amplified upper flow will be featured across the country during this time, with a trough out west and a a high centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Heights are greater than 594 dm, about 2 SD above normal, and 85H temps on Thursday on the latest 12Z GFS are at or above 22C. Trends the last 24h has shown the upper ridge to be a bit stronger across the Northeast in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. That being said, there is still some uncertainty with the strength and magnitude as disturbances round the ridge across the Northeast. The 12Z GFS is still supporting a convective complex dropping across the Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, sending a back door cold front through the area. The spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles is over 10 degrees from NYC up into SW CT and generally over 8 for much of the area on Wednesday. The spread decreases some Thursday and into Friday, which look to be the hottest days of the week. A compromise was made between the warmer NBM and global consensus. The key point here is confidence is increasing for high heat and humidity with a potential Heat Advisory or higher level event.

Highs Thursday and Friday are forecast to be 90-95 away from the immediate coast, with lows in the 70s. Record highs during this time are mainly 100 plus. So some pretty stout records are in place. Even the warmer NBM highs are generally short, but do tie or break in a few places on Thursday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday night: Low chance for MVFR/IFR east of the NYC metro terminals.

Sunday-Monday: VFR

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with MVFR NW of the NYC metro terminals. S winds possible G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds through the middle of next week. Could see some wind approaching 25 kt Tue afternoon and Wed afternoon in a southerly flow.

Rip Currents:

The rip current risk looks to be low over the weekend with 1-2 ft swell sets varying between 5-10s and onshore winds at or below 10 kt. Recent observations at area beaches are also supporting a lower risk.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.