textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gale watches issued for the coastal waters for Saturday.

Potential for strong winds and heavy rain continues to increase for late Sunday night into Monday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong low pressure over the upper Great Lakes today will track to the north tonight, sending a warm front through this evening and a cold front late at night.

3) A strong frontal system will impact the area with moderate to heavy rain, thunderstorms, rain, and strong winds, from late Sunday night through Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The forecast remains consistent for the potential of deep low pressure to affect the area beginning Sunday night and continuing into Monday night. A full latitude upper trough develops over the Plains states Sunday night and tracks slowly eastward toward the Great Lakes and East Coast Monday night, before slowly weakening Tuesday into Wednesday. A deepening surface low moves out of the northern Rockies and into the central Plains Saturday night, then deepens and tracks more northerly through Monday night as the upper trough becomes slightly negative.

Rain will develop well ahead of the associated frontal system late Sunday night into Monday as a Gulf disturbance moves E of Florida on Sunday and then rides up the coast between the deepening trough to the west and an amplifying ridge over the western Atlantic, with a warm frontal passage Monday morning as well.

Meanwhile, a strong southerly flow will develop on Monday as gradient winds increase in response to the deepening low. The area will be warm sectored, and an approaching cold front Monday could trigger strong winds and strong convection as a 70-80 kt LLJ moves through. Stronger thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be possible as PW values increase to 1.50 inches, and as cells tracks northerly along the front while the front moves slowly eastward. There will be a chance of urban, low lying, and small stream flooding.

NBM probabilities for an inch or more of rainfall with this system have increased to 70-80 percent, with a 30-40 percent chance of over 2 inches. Probabilities for 24h max wind gusts greater than 45 mph have slightly increased to 60-70 percent, mainly from NYC east.

Coastal flooding and beach erosion may also be possible with this system given the expected magnitude of S flow and associated wave action, also with astronomical tides increasing with the approach of a new moon next Wednesday. Surge guidance (even the higher end of Stevens PETSS probabilistic guidance) looks suspiciously low with surge of only about 1 to 1.5 ft, and expect it to play catchup as the event draws nearer. Adding a half foot to this guidance as well as to bias-corrected STOFS guidance signals potential for at least minor coastal flooding with the high tides Mon and Mon night.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Late Tonight: VFR. Gusty SW-WSW winds near 20-25 kt.

Saturday: VFR. W wind gusts 25-30 kt during the day. Gusts subside at night.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR. SE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday night: MVFR or lower with rain becoming likely. SE wind gusts near 20 kt, increasing to near 30 kt by daybreak Monday.

Monday: MVFR or lower with rain. A chance of thunderstorms. Winds become more southerly with gusts near 35-40 kt. Potential peak gusts Monday night to 45 kt. Winds decrease slightly and become more westerly late Monday night, gusts closer to 35 kt.

Tuesday: Rain tapers off, possible mix with snow before all precipitation ends. MVFR or lower possible early, otherwise improving conditions to VFR. WSW wind gusts 25-30 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Hazardous ocean seas continue on the ern ocean waters attm. As S winds increase today, gusts over 25 kt are likely on the western ocean waters/Sound and NY Harbor by late this afternoon. SCA cond then expected on all waters tonight as SW flow increases further to 20-30 kt, highest on the ocean. Most gusts should be in the 25-30 kt range, but a few gusts to 35 kt may be possible on the ocean.

A better chance for gales on all waters will come daytime Sat after a cold frontal passage. W winds likely to gust to 35-40 kt on the ocean and up to 35 kt elsewhere.

Conditions quickly ramp down during Sat night, with mostly quiet conditions late Sat night into daytime Sunday.

A deep low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region on Sunday, will produce SCA conditions on all waters Sunday night as SE flow increases ahead of a warm front approaching from the south. Southerly gales are then likely Mon into Mon night after a warm frontal passage, with a few storm force gusts possible Mon evening before a strong cold front moves through.

Gales should continue on the ocean waters on Tue after the cold frontal passage, otherwise SCA cond expected into Tue night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-340. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ335-338-345-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.