textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late today into this evening. Any storm could produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

2) High risk of rip currents along Atlantic-facing beaches today.

3) Conditions turn drier and briefly cooler by Monday, before becoming more unsettled with heat and humidity building mid to late week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Mid level trough axis swings through on Sunday as the surface low works through northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes.

Temperatures remain above normal on Sunday, with mixing and a west wind to start helping temperatures along the coast get into the mid to upper 80s. The cold pool aloft could allow a few additional showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon, especially across S CT where forcing should be highest. Still, coverage appears rather limited, more isolated to widely scattered, and most should across the region should remain dry through the day.

High pressure then builds down from the north, moving overhead into Tuesday. This will allow dry conditions with temperatures returning closer to, but still above, normal for early June. Highs Monday afternoon range from around 80 along the coast, to low to mid 80s inland.

The pattern could become a bit more unsettled mid to late week as high pressure shifts offshore, and a warm, moist flow develops around the ridge. With this, expect increasing humidity with the hot afternoons, and heat indices could approach 100F in some areas by Friday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday night: Sub-VFR in any strong to severe thunderstorms, otherwise VFR, especially after 06z. SW wind G20 kt in the evening, but higher in any thunderstorms. W wind towards daybreak.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a brief period of MVFR in widely scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. NW G15-20kt.

Monday-Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean from 2 pm this afternoon until 6 am Sunday. Strengthening SW flow today will build ocean seas to around 5 ft on the ocean, with wind gusts near 25 kt developing as well.

Elsewhere, the SW flow appears marginal for a SCA, so opted to continue without one for now, though it's possible winds could approach 25 kt for a period this afternoon and evening, and a headline may still be needed should conditions warrant.

Flow becomes W/NW on Sunday behind a departing cold front. Speeds are modeled to remain below SCA levels, with seas on the ocean subsiding to around 4 ft.

Below SCA conditions are then expected with high pressure in control through at least midweek.

Rip Currents...

There is a high risk for rip current development today at all local ocean beaches. Increasing SW flow 15 to 20 kt and 3 to 4 ft swells w/ 8 sec periods drive this threat.

Sunday's risk remains moderate for now with a bit weaker flow that turns more parallel to the shoreline, but it is possible the risk could increase to high during the afternoon.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:

Saturday, June 6

KEWR: 97 (2021) KBDR: 93 (2021) KNYC: 98 (1925) KLGA: 95 (2021) KJFK: 90 (1968) KISP: 90 (2021)

Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures:

Saturday, June 6

KEWR: 71 (2021) KBDR: 67 (2025) KNYC: 77 (1925) KLGA: 76 (2021) KJFK: 69 (2024) KISP: 68 (2024)

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.