textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A wave of low pressure will bring a wintry mix to inland areas late tonight into Friday morning, becoming plain rain late Friday morning into the afternoon. Plain rain expected along the coast.

2) There is potential for an offshore low pressure system to impact the area Sunday through Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Guidance continues to be in agreement on a strong offshore low pressure system forming near the Mid Atlantic/Carolina coast, but uncertainty remains with how close this system will track to our area. This is likely due to complex interaction between multiple streams/upper lows embedded within a longwave trough across the western half of the country.

Some things to note about the latest available 12z guidance: the GFS northwest trend has come to a halt, with the latest run ticking a bit farther offshore. The GFS still remains the closest to the coast which would result in a very wet solution. Latest ICON and Canadian have trended farther offshore giving us a drier solution. Something else to note which has been consistent in the EPS Ensemble is that through the last 3 runs (18z 2/18 - 06z 2/19) there has been a pretty large cluster of member lows that are lying just northwest of the mean low location. This gives some confidence to an eventual continued northwest trend even though the ECMWF has consistently been one of the farther/drier solutions. The latest 12z run however has actually had a slight tick to the northwest. This is a trend worth monitoring.

Given the continued uncertainty have stuck close to the NBM with minor adjustments. This resulted in a slight increase in PoPs and wind/wind gusts from the previous NBM runs. NBM probabilities in Snowfall have also increased. The operational NBM (4.3) has a 40-50% chance of Advisory level snowfall (3-6inches) for northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island and 30% chance for locations farther north. As for warning level (6+ inches), 25 to 30% chance for NYC and Long Island and 20% elsewhere. It is worth noting though that the Experimental NBM (5.0) has slightly higher chances across the board by about 5- 10%.

It is possible that there may be better agreement with tonight's guidance as one of the many players is now over the CONUS upper air network and may be sampled better. This is a vigorous shortwave that is currently diving south along the west coast. This shortwave will have some influence on another shortwave/mid level close low farther north in Canada. This interaction could be important because the northern energy may end up being the main driver that digs down and helps spin up the surface low.

Minor coastal flood impacts may also be possible Sunday night into Monday, dependent on low track and intensity.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday Night: Winds becoming WNW with CIGS/VIS improving.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday: VFR to start. MVFR or lower in a chance of snow late in the day through Monday. E/NE winds G15-20 kt. Winds could be stronger depending on coastal low track.

Monday: MVFR or lower in snow. N winds G20-25 kt. Winds could be stronger depending on coastal low track. Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA has been extended for the ocean waters through at least daytime Fri, and into Friday night E of Fire Island Inlet. Seas running 5 ft attm should last into this evening, with a shorter lull expected before returning to 5-6 ft daytime Fri. A few gusts may also reach 25 kt in E flow on the ocean daytime Fri.

Uncertainty still remains with the exact track and strength of a passing offshore low pressure system Sunday night through Monday. However, confidence has increased in gale force conditions enough to include in the HWO for all waters except the western LI Sound and NY Harbor. Additionally, there is low potential for storm force gusts for the ocean zones from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point. There after the next chance for elevated winds and waves will be midweek next week with the passage of a frontal system. Current forecast brings SCA conditions to the ocean waters.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to noon EST Friday for NYZ067-068. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to noon EST Friday for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Friday night for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ355.