textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with the latest forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably warm air will be in place through tonight. Areas of low clouds/fog could develop again this morning and again tonight.

2) A strong frontal system will impact the area from late today into Thursday with showers, mixing with or changing to snow before ending Thursday afternoon, followed by noticeably cooler and more seasonable air at the end the week.

3) An Alberta clipper passing to the north will bring a chance of rain showers Friday afternoon/night.

4) A potent Colorado low will bring chances for precipitation Sunday through Monday evening with strong winds. Most of the event will be plain rain, but some snow may mix in at the onset and upon the system's exit.

KEY MESSAGE 4

A Colorado low is expected to deepen out ahead of an amplified upper level trough that becomes negatively tilted across the Plains states late this weekend. This low will impact the area Sunday into Monday night as it moves into the Great Lakes region and into Quebec.

This system is more potent than Friday's system and are expecting more QPF overall with this system. A warm front on Sunday will advect in moisture from the Atlantic, leading to increasing coverage of showers into Sunday night. The associated cold front will pass on Monday, bringing with it the risk for moderate to locally heavy downpours. Its also possible there could be some marginal elevated instability with and ahead of the front.

Given the strength of the low, the amplified upper trough, and a strong developing LLJ, a period of strong winds is possible with this system, likely peaking late Sunday night into Monday morning ahead of the approaching cold front.

High temps will be mostly in the upper 40s/lower 50 on Sunday, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s on Mon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Late tonight: Rain showers with MVFR probable. Winds becoming more westerly with gusts near 20 kt.

Thursday: Rain showers, potentially mixing with snow later in day. MVFR to IFR possible. Conditions improving at night with VFR returning. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day,

Friday: VFR during the day. MVFR or lower possible at night with a chance of rain showers. Southerly wind gusts near 25 kt.

Saturday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt during the day.

Sunday: Rain at times with MVFR or lower possible. SE wind gusts 20-30 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,

MARINE

Dense fog may be possible on the eastern ocean/Sound waters and the bays of Long Island tonight.

Increasing SW flow today should bring SCA cond to the ocean and the Long Island South shore bays tonight, with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas building to 5-8 ft.

SCA cond expected on all waters daytime Thu after a cold frontal passage, with NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt into early afternoon and ocean seas remaining above 5 ft through the day. Hazardous ocean seas above 5 ft should continue on all ocean waters into Thu evening, E of Fire Island Inlet through all of Thu night, and E of Moriches Inlet into Fri morning.

Any lull will be brief as SCA cond should return to all waters by Fri afternoon ahead of another frontal system and continue into Sat morning, with S-SW flow 20-25 kt gusting up to 30 kt and ocean seas peaking at 7-10 ft late Fri night. Winds diminish Sat afternoon/night, but hazardous ocean seas should continue into Sat afternoon and then gradually subside Sat evening.

SCA cond also possible on all waters Sunday night via increasing SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front.

CLIMATE

Below are daily record high temperatures for Wed Mar 11:

Record High Temperatures:

KEWR: 75/2021 KBDR: 67/1977 KNYC: 73/1977 KLGA: 70/1977 KJFK: 68/2016 KISP: 68/1977

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

KEWR: 48/2016 KBDR: 45/2016 KNYC: 50/1977 KLGA: 49/2016 KJFK: 50/2016 KISP: 45/2016

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331- 335-340. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ332-338. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.