textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An Extreme Heat Warning is now in effect for NYC, northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and much of southern CT for Wednesday. Long Island and southeastern parts of CT remain in an Extreme Heat Watch for Wednesday given a downward trend in forecast temperatures.

The Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday through Saturday remains unchanged for the entire area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near record, dangerous heat is expected to start Wednesday for most, peak Thursday through Friday and potentially linger into Saturday, with little overnight relief. This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Impacts to transportation infrastructure and electrical and water systems are also possible.

2) Slight chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms today. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible each day Wednesday through Saturday, particularly in the afternoon/evening.

3) There is a high risk of rip currents on Wednesday (see marine section for discussion)

KEY MESSAGE 2

Given our placement on the northern periphery of the upper level ridge, we are set up for potential convection/MCSs rounding the periphery of the ridge. While this is common in this pattern, there is inherent uncertainty in timing, placement and strength of this activity.

CAMs continue to show decaying convection approach from the northwest later this afternoon into the evening. The SPC continue to keep the marginal and slight risk to our northwest. This is as expected as any convection will be entering a less favorable environment.

The story for Wednesday remains the same. While MLCAPE values could reach 2000-3000 J/kg, there is uncertainty in a trigger and weak shear. CAMs show some isolated to scattered activity and the SPC has kept a marginal risk to our north and west.

Uncertainty increase thereafter, with greater coverage in showers/thunderstorms Friday into the weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

.Late Tonight: Mainly VFR, but brief localized MVFR or lower possible in a shower or thunderstorm. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt along the coast.

.Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but brief localized MVFR or lower possible in a shower or thunderstorm. SW wind gusts near 15-20 kt during the day. Potential for SW wind gusts up to 25 kt along immediate coast late day into early eve. Gusts 15-20 kt along coast at night.

.Thursday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts diminish at night.

.Friday: Mainly VFR, but chances for MVFR or lower with chances of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, afternoon into night. SW-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.

.Saturday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon into night with MVFR or lower possible at times.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the western Long Island Sound, NY Harbor, South Shore Bays and the ocean waters from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet out 20 NM. This is due to a strengthening S/SW flow today that will bring 20 to 25 kt gusts and brief 5 ft seas to the ocean waters.

Another SCA will likely be needed for most waters for Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night for a S/SW flow increasing to 25 kt again. Seas will also likely reach 5 to 6 ft.

Thereafter, conditions are expected to remain below SCA conditions.

Rip Currents:

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today. While an onshore flow strengthens, there is no significant wave component. However, on Wednesday a 15 to 20 flow and 5ft 5s wind wave will bring a high risk of rip currents.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

July 1: KEWR: 100/1963 KBDR: 95/1963 KNYC: 100/1901 KLGA: 97/2018 KJFK: 102/1963 KISP: 96/1964

July 2: KEWR: 102/1966 KBDR: 100/1966 KNYC: 100/1966 KLGA: 101/1966 KJFK: 101/1966 KISP: 99/1966

July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966

July 4: KEWR: 105/1949 KBDR: 98/1949 KNYC: 102/1949 KLGA: 100/1949 KJFK: 101/2010 KISP: 97/2010

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 1: KEWR: 77/2018 KBDR: 73/2013 KNYC: 79/2018 KLGA: 79/2018 KJFK: 75/1968 KISP: 73/2025

July 2: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 82/1901 KLGA: 78/2002 KJFK: 74/2018 KISP: 74/2014

July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018

July 4: KEWR: 81/2002 KBDR: 80/2002 KNYC: 81/2002 KLGA: 82/1999 KJFK: 80/2002 KISP: 76/2002

July 5: KEWR: 81/1999 KBDR: 74/2018 KNYC: 82/1999 KLGA: 86/1999 KJFK: 80/1999 KISP: 78/1999

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-009>011. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>007-009-010. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday evening through Saturday evening for CTZ005>007-009-010. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday evening for CTZ008-011-012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-176-178. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-176-178. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday evening through Saturday evening for NYZ067>075-176-178. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday evening for NYZ078>081-177-179. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday evening through Saturday evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ335-338-345-355.