textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Downward adjustment of temps by a few degrees across outlying areas tonight and Friday Night with good radiational cooling conditions. Slight increase in gusts for tomorrow late morning into afternoon with secondary cold frontal passage. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast with the latest update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonable through Saturday.

2) An area of low pressure will bring rain to the area Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to make landfall Friday night into Saturday morning along the eastern Gulf Coast. Refer to the latest official track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for additional details.

Remnant moisture from the system then looks to interact with mid- latitude energy, bringing a period of moderate to possibly heavy rainfall across the region Sunday into Monday. The system looks to be progressive enough to spare the region of a more substantial rainfall. In addition, there is not much evidence the system will have much instability work with, albeit precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches. Guidance continues to bring 0.75 to 1 inch of rainfall over a 12-18 hour period. The latest 90th percentile NBM shows 1.5 to 2 inches over this 18 hour period, which has also remained consistent over the last 24 hours.

S/SE winds Sunday night may briefly reach 20 to 30 mph along the coast. There is a full moon and coastal locations will need about 1 to 2 ft to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks, which is not expected at this time. This will come into better focus over the next day or so as we get into the window for surge guidance. Right now, it is looking like a low end event at best.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday Night: VFR. WNW winds quickly diminishing to light and/or variable thru the evening.

Saturday: VFR. N winds, becoming S/SE late.

Sunday: VFR through the early afternoon. Chance of rain with MVFR/IFR cond developing late, and at night. Increasing E/SE winds 10-15g20kt in aft/eve.

Monday: MVFR or lower in rain showers early, VFR likely in afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight and through much of the weekend as high pressure slides overhead. There is a low chance of SCA conditions on the nearshore waters Friday afternoon with gusts 20-25kt but largely appears to be under the threshold. The best chance for SCA conditions on the ocean will be Sunday night into Monday as a low pressure system slides over or just south of the area.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.