textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Milder and predominantly dry today into Saturday.

2. Potential fire weather concerns Saturday.

3. Noticeably warmer next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The models are in good agreement with a notable warmup into next week. A warm front lifts to the NW of the area Sunday night into Monday as H85 temps approach 10 to 12C. Also the low level flow will generally be W or WSW. Therefore most, if not all areas will warm up quite a bit, even at the coasts. As is often the case this time of year with any warm up attempts, seas breeze development will likely make pushes during the afternoon / evening time frame most days. The question will be whether the flow aloft will be strong enough at times to hold off the inland push of any sea breezes. Stuck with the NBM numbers for now, but these numbers may be too low based on the flow and can be adjusted in subsequent cycles as needed. Towards Wed there is good agreement among forecast guidance that H85 temps approach 15 to 16C which would theoretically result in sfc temperatures getting well into the 80s across most areas away from the immediate shore.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Sunday: VFR. SE winds G15-20kt.

Monday: VFR. SW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 15 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small craft conditions are expected to develop on the ocean waters later today, mainly by the late afternoon as seas climb to around feet late today into this evening and gusts approach 25 kt on the ocean, especially closer to shore. Ocean seas get closer to 6 ft tonight and then should begin to subside gradually during the day on Saturday. By later Saturday afternoon seas are expected to fall with gusts near 25-30 kt possible for a brief time below small craft criteria. Sub advisory conditions will be short lived on the ocean as small craft conditions are likely to return by early Monday morning as a cold front draws closer from the west. A S flow ahead of the front should get wind gusts to 25 kt on most waters on Monday with ocean seas getting close to 6 feet. Sub advisory conditions likely will not return until late Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.