textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure continues to build in the remainder of today, weakening tonight into Thursday morning. A cold front will pass through Thursday afternoon, followed quickly by another strong high pressure system building from the west Thursday night into Friday. The high will pass east Friday night. Weak low pressure passes off the southern Mid Atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday. Brief high pressure Saturday night into Sunday gives way to another cold front passage Sunday night. High pressure will then be in control early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Mostly sunny conditions will remain for the remainder of the day due to high pressure firmly in place. High pressure then weakens tonight.

Lows overnight will again drop below freezing. Lows overnight will be near 32 in NYC, upper 20s at the rest of the coast then into the mid to low 20s in interior locations. Despite freezing temperatures anticipated, black ice is not a major concern. Any lingering wet surfaces that froze over this morning, should be dried out by sunset today.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Cold frontal passage will usher in a quick shot of very cold air Thursday night into Friday.

* Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with some light snow/rain Friday night.

NBM brings the cold front through dry Thu afternoon, but some CAMs have a hints of precip with the front. Its likely it will remain a dry frontal passage with low PWATs in place, but the strong forcing could lead to a few flurries N & W of NYC Thursday afternoon. Max temperatures on Thursday should reach the upper 30s to lower 40s prior to the cold front's arrival. Streamers from the Great Lakes following the frontal passage are unlikely to make it into the area Thursday evening, but still something worth monitoring.

A gusty NW flow will usher in very cold air for Thu night into Fri, with low temps from the lower 20s in NYC, to the teens most elsewhere, to some single digits well inland, with wind chills as low as the single digits inland and the teens elsewhere. Temps may have a hard time rising above freezing in the NYC metro area and coastal sections on Fri, and it should remain quite cold inland, with highs only 25-30. Record low temps for BDR/LGA/JFK, and record low maximum temps for all climate sites except NYC, may be in jeopardy on Friday. See the Climate section for current records.

As the high slides east Fri night, the precip shield with weak low pressure passing well south off the Mid Atlantic coast may skirt the area. Forecast carries 30-35 PoPs for Long Island, 20-30 PoPs most elsewhere, and it may remain completely dry in Orange County with only 20 PoPs. Any snow amts would be on the light side, with no more than a coating mainly for NYC metro/Long Island.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Points:

* Light precip remains possible Saturday morning, especially east of the NYC metro and Hudson River.

* Mainly dry conditions should then prevail late Saturday through early next week.

* Below normal temperatures expected through early next week. * A cold air mass appears likely Sunday night through Tuesday. Highs on Monday may struggle to rise above freezing even down to the coast.

The modeling is in good agreement with the overall pattern for the upcoming weekend. A mainly flat, progressive flow will keep weak low pressure well offshore over the Atlantic on Saturday. Upper trough axis persists to the NW across the Great Lakes. There may be a weak surface trough over the northeast on Saturday, so have kept low precip probabilities for now. Any precip that occurs would be occurring within marginal thermal profiles. Light rain is possible at the coast with possibly some wet snow inland. It should be noted the day could end up dry as the lift and moisture is limited Saturday morning.

Conditions should improve heading into Saturday night as weak high pressure builds returns through Sunday. A stronger cold front will move across the area Sunday night that will usher in a cold air mass for early next week. The cold air looks to hang around into Tuesday. Lows Monday look to fall into the teens and low 20s with highs on Monday in the upper 20s and low 30s. Lows Tuesday morning may be in the teens for much of the area with highs moderating a bit into the 30s. Moderating temperatures are signaled with the latest model consensus indicating highs rebounding into upper 30s inland and low to mid 40s near the coast.

A clipper system may move across the northeast on Wednesday, but this is a week out and models/ensembles differ on timing and strength of the low pressure.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday afternoon: VFR. W to WNW winds G25-30kt. Low chance for afternoon rain/snow shower activity with a cold frontal passage.

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at night, especially for southern and eastern terminals.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of the NYC metros.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Seas 5+ ft should continue on the ern ocean waters tonight, lower elsewhere. These then spread to all ocean waters daytime Thu ahead of a cold front, along with gusts up to 25 kt. After fropa in the afternoon, expect solid gales on the ern ocean waters from late Thu afternoon into Thu evening, and a Gale Warning has been issued. Gales are also possible on all other waters during this timeframe, except on the NY Harbor, and a Gale Watch has been issued. Ocean seas should build to 5- 8 ft by Thu evening, and up to 5 ft on the central/ern Sound.

Winds and seas quickly ramp down late Thu night, with sub-SCA cond on all waters by daytime Fri and continuing through the weekend. The next chance for SCA conditions occurs Sunday night into Monday as a cold front moves across the waters.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport and Stamford tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as low pressure passes well south.

CLIMATE

Record low temps for KBDR/KLGA/KJFK, and record low maximum temps for all climate sites except KNYC, may be in jeopardy on Friday December 5th.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935 KBDR: 17/1989 KNYC: 11/1926 KLGA: 21/1942 KJFK: 20/1966 KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002 KBDR: 28/2002 KNYC: 22/1886 KLGA: 32/2002 KJFK: 33/2007 KISP: 30/2002

EQUIPMENT

KOKX radar is out of service.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for ANZ331-332-335-340-345-355. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353. Gale Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ350- 353. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ355.