textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Small Craft Advisories have been extended in time on the ocean waters through the day Monday.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Mostly dry with near normal temperatures through mid-week.
2) A widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday night into Thursday, with a cooler pattern then in place through the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2
Global dynamical and AI-based ensemble systems continue to advertise anomalously low H5 heights over the East late this week, with stubborn troughing thanks to strong blocking setting up between the Canadian Maritimes and Greenland. The strength and placement of these features will help drive the sensible weather locally through the weekend.
Ahead of this, an advancing frontal system leads the incoming trough, with shortwave energy rounding the trough helping to instigate a surface wave of low pressure along the boundary. This will bring a widespread rainfall as the system passes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with potential for the rain to linger later into the day. QPF looks to average between a half inch and one inch through Thursday, with NBM V5 90th percentile around 1.5 inches. Hydrological concerns appear minimal, and should largely prove beneficial with NYC, NE NJ, and the LoHud Valley in moderate drought.
Thereafter, still some uncertainty with additional chances for rain into the weekend, but for now, increasing confidence in cooler than normal conditions late this week into early next, with daytime highs mid to late week largely in the 50s and low 60s, and chances for wet weather at times, though a washout appears unlikely.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
Monday Night - Tuesday. VFR.
Wednesday - Thursday: MVFR or lower with showers late day into Thursday, tapering off late Thursday. Slight chance of thunder. NW gusts 15-20kt Thursday.
Friday: Mainly VFR, MVFR possible with a slight chance of showers. NW gusts 20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Seas will remain elevated on the ocean waters into Tuesday with a persistent NE flow and SCAs were extended through the day Monday. SCAs may need to be extended in time with subsequent forecasts. Seas on the ocean may linger aoa 5 ft through at least Thursday.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
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