textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Passing sprinkles or light rain showers in southern CT and southern NY tonight and Friday afternoon but no impact.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry on Friday with the exception of an isolated shower, followed by round of rain moving through the first half of the weekend.

2) Another round of rain Sunday night through much of the day Monday. Potential for periods of showers mid to late week next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak shortwave trough moves through the region tonight. While moisture is overall limited, soundings show mid-level moisture advecting which may be enough to support a few showers or sprinkles and clouds overnight. Any rain accumulation is expected to be light (< 0.10").

Expect a mainly dry day for Friday with westerly winds. Another weak disturbance moves through the flow aloft in the afternoon with another "push" of mid-level moisture. This may result in a few isolated showers in the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be seasonable in the 60s.

Another shortwave trough shifts across on Saturday. This wave will be more supported and organized resulting in higher amounts of moisture advecting as a warm front pushes northward. This will support widespread rain across the region Saturday. A few showers are possible overnight Friday night, although the bulk of the rain arrives early Saturday morning. Rain tapers off into scattered showers in the afternoon, exiting by evening. Ensemble guidance shows a general consensus of total rain amounts ranging from 0.25" to 0.50".

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another system approaches the region on Sunday. It more likely remains dry during the day with a low risk for an isolated shower. High temperatures are likely to be on the mild side in the upper 60s/70s. There is general agreement among model guidance for the main batch of rain arriving in the Sunday night to early Monday morning timeframe. Although there are some subtle differences in the exact timing. Isolated to scattered showers are possible in the evening ahead of the main system. This should bring another round of beneficial and low impact rain to the region.

Tuesday trends mainly dry with seasonable temperatures. Confidence in the details of the weather pattern decrease mid to late next week. A good percentage of guidance indicates a trend to an active pattern mid to late week with a few rounds of showers possible. Timing details still uncertain at this time. The ECMWF and ensemble in particular lean a bit on the drier side, so just something to keep monitoring. Overall, we could see a transition to a more unsettled period with showers later in the week next week.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday night: Chance of MVFR or lower late north and west of NYC terminals. Otherwise mainly VFR. W-NW wind gusts diminish in the evening.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with showers north and west of NYC terminals during the day, otherwise VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower at night for all terminals with showers likely. Southerly wind gusts 15- 20 kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Monday: Showers likely, tapering off at night. Chance of MVFR or lower during the day. Mainly VFR thereafter at night.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

NW winds gusting to around 15-20 kt decrease tonight while becoming light westerly overnight. Westerly breezes to near-SCA levels on Friday around 20-25 kt which could warrant SCAs in later updates. Seas mainly 4 ft or less all waters.

Better chance at SCAs on Saturday with southerly winds 10-15 kt and gusts to 25 kt with outer-waters seas 4-6 ft, with periods of rain showers which could briefly reduce visibility. Sub-SCA westerly winds and lowering seas for Sunday which continue into Monday.

Passage of a cold front Monday night offers another potential period of NW winds to SCA criterion.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.