textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A significant winter storm is increasingly likely Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) A major winter storm is increasingly likely to bring a widespread accumulating snowfall to the region with significant travel disruptions Sunday into Monday.

2.) An arctic air mass settles into the region late Friday, with subfreezing temperatures likely to persist through at least mid next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A relatively milder air mass will be in place today with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 40s this afternoon. This brief reprieve comes to an end as a cold front moves through the area this evening, with another reinforcing front later Friday ushering in an arctic air mass for the weekend.

Temperatures Friday struggle to get above freezing in the afternoon, and under cold air advection, temperatures Friday night drop into the low single digits inland, and toward 10F around the NYC metro. Coupled with a modest NW flow, wind chill values likely fall below zero for most areas, and could warrant Cold Weather Advisory at least across portions of the interior, with min apparent Ts near -10F into Saturday morning.

The frigid air mass remains on Saturday, and forecast highs in the teens region-wide will make it one of the coldest days in the past several years. Record cold highs could be tied or broken (See Climate Section below) at some sites. While not as bitterly cold as Saturday, the sub freezing temperatures look to persist through at least mid next week, likely aided by a fresh snowpack, with daytime highs in the 20s for most, and lows in the single digits and teens. Wind chills could approach advisory criteria once again Monday night into Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: VFR. W winds becoming NW gusts 20-25 kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night into Monday: Snow developing from south to north late Saturday night, ending on Monday. NE winds 10-15 kt gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory continues on the ocean waters through the day with seas at or above 5 ft and wind gusts around 25 kt. The winds begin to diminish this evening, but seas likely lingering on waters east of Fire Island Inlet into Friday morning.

Winds then briefly subside on all waters before increasing again Friday afternoon in association with a cold frontal passage. Occasional gales are possible, especially on the ocean waters late Friday. Freezing spray is also possible Friday night.

Relatively tranquil conditions are expected Saturday through Saturday night with seas subsiding on a weakening NW to N flow. Low pressure passing offshore then brings a chance of gales to all waters Sunday into Sunday night, possibly lingering into Monday.

CLIMATE

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 24: KEWR: 15/1936 KBDR: 20/2014 KNYC: 6/1882 KLGA: 18/1987 KJFK: 19/1987 KISP: 19/2014

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.