textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Freeze warning remains in effect for late tonight into early Tue morning for most areas outside of NYC and immediate eastern/western suburbs.

2) Milder weather should return mid to late week.

3) Conditions look potentially unsettled over the weekend, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Upper air pattern heading into the weekend will a feature a weakening upper ridge just west of the area, sandwiched between an upper low over the Northern Plains and another east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, a surface high builds over the area on Friday, following what appears to be a back door cold front. A warm front associated with the western system then moves into the area on Saturday. This results in a strengthening boundary in close proximity to the area. This will be a key player in determining the coverage and extent of rain this weekend.

The 12Z operational global models indicate that the surface ridge could be strong enough to keep eastern areas, in particular eastern Long Island and southeast CT on the drier side, with higher probabilities of rain back toward NYC and northern NJ. That being the case there are still solutions like the 00Z ECMWF, which are wet for much of the weekend. Either way, it looks like there will be a tight gradient somewhere close to the area, going from rain to no rain. Using the NBM, this results in cloudy conditions with a chance of rain everywhere Saturday, but decreasing on Sunday as a frontal wave and boundary get suppressed to the south by strengthening high pressure.

Highs during this time are expected to be below normal, mainly in the 50s, with near normal lows in the 40s.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Some southerly wind gusts near 15-20 kt late at night.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers, improving later in the day and at night with VFR returning. Some southerly wind gusts near 15-20 kt early.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower late at night with a chance of showers.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Wind gusts in NW flow after a cold frontal passage may approach 25 kt at times into early this evening on NY Harbor and on the adjacent ocean waters near the harbor entrance. Declined issuing SCA for this since any 25-kt gusts should be sporadic.

Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below advisory levels through Sat night.

CLIMATE

Daily record low temperatures for Tue Apr 21:

KEWR: 31/1981 KBDR: 29/1956 KNYC: 26/1875 KLGA: 33/1956 KJFK: 34/1956 KISP: 30/1965

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>071-078>081. NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-103>108. MARINE...None.