textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A cold front moves across the region tonight, with arctic high pressure building in behind it Monday into Tuesday. The high weakens and shifts offshore as a clipper system passes to the north Tuesday night. A couple of systems may then impact the area mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Weak high pressure in place drifts offshore ahead of an approaching frontal system from the north and west. The center of low pressure passes north, but attendant cold front approaches the region this evening, moving across the region after midnight.

Skies will gradually clear once drier air begins to filter in with the front.

Dry air and limited forcing will keep the region dry with the fropa, absent a stray flurry or two well inland.

Flow turns NW as winds kick up behind it, and gusts up to 30 mph develop overnight, persisting into the morning. Temperatures fall back into the teens inland, and the 20s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Arctic air mass settles over the region on Monday, leading to subfreezing daytime highs and wind chills in the single digits and teens at times.

* A few snow showers are possible, mainly inland, as low pressure passes north Tuesday night.

Cold front clears the coast into the early morning, and resultant flow behind it ushers in an arctic air mass once again, setting up the coldest day for the region since February.

Temperatures will struggle to climb from where they start the day given the CAA, and 925 mb temps fall below -10C, which should translate to afternoon temperatures only into the mid 20s away from the coast, and struggling to crack 30 even along it. Despite a solid 15 degrees below climatology, daily records do not appear in jeopardy. Blustery winds, especially in the morning, will enhance the cold feeling, and wind chills start out in the single digits to teens, then likely hang near or below 20 through the day. Continued to blend in the NBM90 for winds given the guidance's low bias in these regimes. Peak gusts up to around 30 mph likely, gradually lowering through the day. The gustiest of the winds diminish by mid to late day, and flow may lighten enough overnight into Tuesday AM to allow for more efficient radiative cooling. Blended in CONSMOS to try and better capture this potential, with single digits likely inland, and teens along the coast.

The overhead high shifts east and offshore on Tuesday, with return flow setting up. This will allow for moderating temperatures, and highs should rise back into the lower 40s along the coast, though remaining fairly cold away from maritime influence, with daytime temperatures still only into the low to mid 30s.

Pattern then looks to begin to turn more active, as the next shortwave dives into the Northern Plains Monday night before translating east, with the associated surface low passing the region to the north Tuesday night. This could introduce the next chance for precipitation, but northerly track looks to preclude much, if anything, locally; perhaps a few snow showers mainly inland Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

NBM was followed with only minor changes made to winds.

Key Points:

* A wintry mix with light snow accumulation inland probable on Wednesday.

* Temperatures below normal through the period except on Wednesday, when they'll be near normal.

* Conditions likely remain below warning and advisory thresholds.

Looks like a better than 50% chance of precipitation with snow changing to rain for the NW zones on Wednesday. Below 1 inch of snow accumulation probable before the changeover to rain. Rain otherwise for most of the forecast area with rain chances at 40-50%.

Thursday has trended drier with no precip forecast. Still a pretty good amount of uncertainty thereafter regarding potential fronts, weak lows, and upper disturbances that may trigger precipitation. It is however beginning to appear that Friday has a good chance of remaining dry. An upper low may then help generate precip on Saturday with a weaker disturbance following on Sunday. Will keep with NBM PoPs of dry weather on Sunday and below 50% on Saturday. Should precip occur on Saturday, thermal profiles would support snow for the entire area.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Late Monday night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt late afternoon/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the afternoon and into the evening. S-SW gusts 20-25 kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers. W gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds increase behind a cold frontal passage tonight. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) goes into effect on all waters at 1 AM Monday for 30 kt wind gusts. Seas on the ocean are also expected to build to 5 to 6 feet Monday morning, persisting through afternoon. Winds lighten by late day, and sub SCA conditions return to all waters Monday evening.

Gales will be possible at least on the ocean waters on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to low pressure passing to the north. Advisory-level conditions otherwise prevail on all waters Wednesday through Thursday. Elevated seas then remain on the ocean in spite of diminishing winds during Thursday night. Friday should then feature sub- advisory conditions on all waters, but there is still a chance of 25kt gusts on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.