textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Slow moving low pressure will continue to produce intermittent showers and thunderstorms today, but the overall flood risk has lowered.

2) After drier weather to the start of the weekend, conditions turn unsettled once again early next week as another low pressure system impacts the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Heights climb on Friday as the weakening trough lifts east and offshore and ridging builds in. Surface high pressure slides in from the Midwest, helping to briefly calm conditions locally.

Temperatures return into the lower 80s across most of the region Friday afternoon. Absent a few isolated diurnal showers or thunderstorms, mainly in S CT, dry conditions prevail.

The reprieve is short-lived as the next shortwave dives south from the Northern Plains, instigating low pressure that drives east toward the region by the end of the weekend.

Moisture streams in with deep southwest flow Sunday, and PWATs are progged to climb above 2 inches by Sunday night into Monday. WPC offers a marginal risk into the LoHud Valley Sunday, and across the forecast area on Monday. Still some uncertainty with the ultimate evolution of the upper pattern, but given the high moisture content and potential for multiple rounds, will need to continue to monitor this period.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR. An isolated shower is possible early.

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm NW of the NYC terminals.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm.

Monday: Mainly VFR, chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Seas have largely lowered under 5 ft on the coastal ocean waters and the SCA that was in effect for waters east of Moriches Inlet has been cancelled.

Sub SCA conditions are expected Friday and Saturday with high pressure in place.

The next low pressure system approaches on Sunday, moving through early next week. This could bring a return to SCA conditions on the ocean waters by Monday.

Rip Currents...

There is a moderate risk for rip currents at all local ocean beaches today. An offshore N wind, with SSE swells 3 to 4 ft at an 8 sec period drive this risk.

The risk remains moderate on Friday. Winds turn more onshore during the afternoon, though speeds lighten and swells begin to lower.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.