textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A round of wet weather Saturday and Saturday evening.

2. Mainly dry on Sunday, followed by another round of rain Sunday night into a portion of Monday.

3. Unsettled weather expected toward mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad upper trough across the NE quarter of the country will send developing low pressure across the Great Lakes tonight into Saturday, sending a warm front across the area in the morning before washing out. There will be a chance of warm advection showers tonight, with the best chance and greatest coverage across western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. Widespread showers on Saturday will then overspread the area from west to east, likely not reaching LI and southern CT until afternoon. A mid level shortwave trough interacting with a southerly low-level jet will provide the brunt of the lift. Additionally, with some weak elevated instability, an isolated thunderstorm is a possibility. Best chance will be at the coast. Rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inches can be expected across the area. Rain ends by early evening for most locations with the possible exception of eastern LI and SE CT.

Also, added in some patchy fog for Saturday night. MOS is aggressive at some locations. Confidence is low at this time.

Highs Saturday will top out near or just below normal with mostly cloudy skies and southerly winds gusting up to 20 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Sunday looks to be mainly dry between systems as a cold front approaches from the west, There is a chance for scattered showers late in the day, mainly north and west of NYC. A more organized rainfall event is then expected Sunday night into Monday as an amplifying upper trough sends the cold front across the area with a frontal wave passing to the south and east. Another half inch of well-needed rainfall is expected at this time. The system is trending more progressive with less rainfall across the interior.

NBMv5 looks too cool Saturday night (warm sector) and too warm Sunday based on trends and what is being shown in both raw consenus and MOS. For lows, went warmer in the lower to mid 50s, and for highs, 70 to 75. Weighted in some CONSALL. Sunday could be a bit tricky based on how quickly cloud cover increases ahead of the approaching frontal system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Low pressure over the Northern Plains region on Tuesday is expected to dive south over the southern Great Lakes region Tuesday night, then head east into the day Wednesday, then slowly sink southeast, ejecting off the Southeast Coast late in the day Thursday into Thursday night. This coastal low then slowly heads northeast through the rest of the forecast period, with some slow strengthening.

Rain showers associated with the low, and an inverted trough extending northward, which would likely be the primary focus for the showers for our area, will move through from the west late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Of course, this far out, there are timing differences with the track and strength of the low, which would lead to differences in timing of any precipitation and amounts. This also leads to high uncertainty with the track of the eventual coastal low that passes south and east of the area at the end of the week, and whether we see any rainfall as it heads out to sea.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday night: Showers, with slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers taper off late. Patchy fog develops late. Mainly MVFR to IFR. LIFR possible. Southerly wind gusts to near 20 kt diminish.

Sunday: Patchy fog early with MVFR/IFR, possible LIFR. Conditions then improve to VFR before another chance of showers late day with a chance of MVFR as well. MVFR or lower more likely at night with showers becoming widespread.

Monday: Showers with MVFR or lower conditions, tapering off during the late afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with MVFR or lower conditions with increasing chances of showers afternoon into night. Showers become likely Wednesday night. S winds G15-20kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A warm front passes through the area Saturday morning with a chance of marginal SCA conditions in a S-SW flow. Both winds and seas will be close with 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas on the ocean. Eastern LI Sound and the LI bays also look real marginal, but with a southerly low-level jet moving across the area, opted to stay with the SCA.

Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday. However, waves build late in the day Wednesday as a southerly flow increases due to an approaching low pressure system to the west. Depending on the track and strength of the low, 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas may make their way in sooner than forecast Wednesday afternoon, especially from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331- 332-340. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.