textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A light snowfall is expected late tonight into Wednesday morning with a passing warm front, and could lead to hazardous travel conditions during the AM commute.

2) Weak low pressure passing to the south could bring another light snowfall late Thursday into Thursday night.

3) Dry and colder than normal conditions continue from Friday into the weekend. Potential for brief shot of Arctic air and fast moving weak low pressure Sunday night into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

High pressure moves across the region on Friday and will be followed by an Arctic cold front passage Sunday into Sunday night. Behind this front, a sprawling high pressure system with along with an Arctic air potentially following Sunday night into Monday. A wave of low pressure mass pass near the region early next week.

Uncertainty exists regarding whether the aforementioned low will develop early next week or conditions remain dry and cold. There are large differences with the handling of a fast moving shortwave within the nearly zonal flow aloft. The presence of the Arctic high may suppress or weaken the system, limiting any precipitation potential. The latest National Blend of Models (NBM) indicates about a 40 percent chance of precipitation early next week. Snow could be the dominant precipitation type given the Arctic air over potential Arctic air over the Northeast. However, several global models and their ensembles largely keep conditions dry and cold to start next week. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days as the modeling and pattern evolution becomes better resolved.

Temperatures will remain several degrees below normal Friday into the weekend. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 30s to around 40. A brief warmup is expected Saturday with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s east and mid to upper 40s Hudson River corridor on west. Temperatures begin trending down on Sunday with highs by Monday only in the upper 20s to around 30 and low to mid 30s next Tuesday. Nighttime temperatures Sunday night through Monday night in the teens inland and lower 20s close to the coast.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Wednesday: MVFR/brief IFR likely with light snow in the early AM with 20-25kt gusts in the morning for coastal terminals.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday: VFR

Late Thursday/Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR likely with rain/snow mix possible near coast with snow possible inland.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters, with NW flow still gusting to 25 kt and seas as high as 5-6 ft. These conditions should briefly subside tonight, then SCA cond should resume on the ocean, the bays of Long Island, and the far ern Sound as SW flow increases with a warm fropa. Gusts 25-30 kt expected, with ocean seas building to 6-9 ft by Wed afternoon.

Wind gusts should diminish Wed night, but hazardous seas over 5 ft likely to continue through at least Thu morning on all ocean waters, into Thu afternoon E of Fire Island Inlet, and into early Thu evening E of Moriches Inlet.

A cold frontal passage along with building high pressure late in the weekend and early next week may bring the next chance of SCA conditions.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ353- 355.