textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure passes to the north of the area tonight as it tracks through New England, with a secondary low forming in the Gulf of Maine. The whole system exits into the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday, with high pressure then building in locally through Thursday. A dual frontal system impacts the area Friday through the weekend. High pressure returns Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Messages:

* A light glaze of ice is possible across portions of interior southern Connecticut and the interior Lower Hudson Valley tonight into early Wednesday morning. This could lead to slick conditions on the coldest surfaces, including bridges and overpasses.

* Areas of dense fog could develop across the region tonight and lead to reduced visibility for the Wednesday morning commute.

Frontal system drives east through New England into tonight, with an attendant warm front currently draped over the Mid Atlantic lifting through locally. The associated WAA and frontal forcing will help instigate precipitation by this evening that lingers into Wed AM for some areas. Coverage is not expected to be widespread however and QPF is light, under a tenth of an inch regionwide. Soundings indicate a warm nose developing in the 800-950 mb layer that will preclude any ptype other than rain. That said, low level cold air may support pockets of freezing rain in the coldest locales of the interior with the activity.

Opted to hoist Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening through 7 AM Wednesday for Orange and Putnam Co in the LoHud Valley, as well as all of interior S CT for this potential for freezing rain. This lines up well with 12Z HREF's FRAM and WPC guidance, highlighting at least the possibility of a light glaze to a few hundredths in parts of the Advisory zones. Main area of concern is the coldest locales north and west of I-84, as well as areas along the CT River Valley, where drainage from the north could assist in keeping marginally cold air in place at the surface. Conditions for ice accretion will be marginal however; absence of seeding aloft, temperatures rose above freezing across the region today, and there's no synoptic injection of cold air coming. And though surface flow is weak, expect temperatures to level off and rise slightly toward daybreak as the cold air erodes. Still, likely will see at least localized pockets of ZR as temperatures wet bulb toward or just under the freezing mark in these northern areas. Elsewhere, including along the coast, a chilly light rain will fall intermittently this evening and overnight, largely tapering by daybreak.

Also will need to monitor for fog development tonight, which could be dense in some areas, if not even more widespread, with the light flow and saturated low levels as the warm front lifts through the area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key Message:

* Drier and milder air mass settles in midweek with highs in the 40s both Wednesday and Thursday, or about 5 degrees above normal.

Light rain could linger into mid morning in some areas, especially east, as the upper trough aloft and surface cold front moves through. Temperatures will be above the freezing mark at this point however and additional icing is not expected.

Drying conditions into the afternoon as the system lifts north into the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure begins to slide east from the OH Valley. Temperatures should get into the mid and upper 40s on Wednesday and a bit blustery west winds also develop behind the exiting system, with gusts likely approach 30 mph along the coast during the day on Wednesday, before weakening Wednesday evening.

High pressure builds across the area Thursday, allowing dry conditions with temperatures getting into the mid 40s for most. The high slides offshore Thursday night, giving way to an approaching frontal system.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Messages:

* A frontal system will impact the area bringing a period of rainfall Friday through Sunday.

* Temps will trend much warmer Friday into Saturday with highs in the 50s.

* Cold air makes a comeback at the start of next week.

Heights rise through the end of the week. A dual frontal system will bring impacts through Sunday.

Following a warm frontal passage, moisture really begins to increase on Friday as the surface low passes into New England and/or Canadian Maritimes associated with a shortwave trough aloft. Rain coverage will increase through the day Friday.

Friday night, rainfall may temporarily get cut off as a cold front pushes through in response to the surface low exiting through the Canadian Maritimes. However, this front may not make it all the way through. Guidance varies on this. Should the front push through, onshore flow will still return by daybreak Saturday, which would bring in more rainfall.

Given anomalously warm temps, this will be an all rain event. Highs will be in the 50s Friday and Saturday.

As the surface low exits NE, a secondary low develops with a deep, digging trough into the Great Lakes on Saturday. This low brings continued chances for rain until a cold front passes Sunday evening into Sunday night. This has notably trended much slower in global guidance as compared to 24 hours ago. 13Z NBM currently brings 1" rainfall probs around 40% for the total event.

The cold front will lead to mainly dry weather by daybreak Monday as the axis of the upper trough pushes east. Temperatures will be trending colder as a result of the lower heights aloft and cold frontal passage. Highs on Sunday reach the mid/low 40s before FROPA. Highs back into the upper 30s to lower 40s by Monday.

High pressure sets from the south Monday into Tuesday leading to a dry start to next week.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday afternoon: VFR, except at KGON MVFR becoming VFR by 20Z. WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Rain likely, especially in the afternoon and at night. MVFR, lowering to IFR at night. S winds 10-15G20kt in the afternoon. LLWS also possible in the afternoon.

Saturday: Rain with IFR likely, MVFR possible. SE winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. LLWS possible along the coast late afternoon into the evening.

Sunday: Chance of rain with MVFR, chance of IFR. W winds G20-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Low pressure passes to the north tonight into Wednesday, producing SCA conditions on all waters Wednesday in a gusty W flow. Winds lighten Wednesday evening, but ocean seas at or above 5 ft likely linger into the first half of Wednesday night before lowering. Thereafter, sub SCA conditions on all waters through Thursday night.

By Friday, SCA conditions may develop on ocean waters with winds and seas increasing with the approach of a frontal system. SCA cond will be possible on all waters by Sunday. A few gale-force gusts are possible Sunday evening with the cold frontal passage on ocean waters. SCA conditions will hold on ocean waters into Monday.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns are expected through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>008. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ067-068. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.