textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. A period of frigid air is likely this weekend, with increasing likelihood for cold weather headlines.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and continued cold through Thursday night.

2) An Alberta clipper will bring a chance for light snowfall Friday night, followed by an Arctic cold front bringing frigid air and strong winds with hazardous/dangerous wind chills this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Heights drop aloft Friday through Saturday as a longwave trough w/closed upper low over Hudson Bay deepens over the eastern US. A weak Alberta clipper will partially phase with the trough as it traverses the area Friday night into Saturday.

This clipper will bring with it a chance for snow showers. Quite a bit of dry air remains in place over the area Friday into Saturday and the low remains relatively weak until it passes east of the area, so any snowfall that occurs will be on the lighter side of things. Snow ratios will be high given cold air already in place.

Best timing for snowfall appears to be Friday night into Sat morning, first with weak WAA ahead of the clipper Friday evening, then with the passage of the Arctic cold front late Fri night into Sat morning. A few snow squalls may be possible with fropa as low level lapse rates look to increase. Snowfall should taper off after fropa Sat morning. Attm expecting only a dusting to an inch of accumulation.

The axis of the longwave trough shifts east and tilts negatively later on Saturday. This allows the clipper to rapidly strengthen as its passes out to sea, leaving us beneath a strong pressure gradient zone. This will result in strong cold air advection and blustery NW flow Sat into Sat night.

NW winds on Saturday should peak around 20-30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph. Winds then gradually taper under a weakening pressure gradient from late Sat night into Mon. Winds will still remain brisk into Sunday, with gusts 25-35 mph.

Given the passage of the Arctic front, CAA on strong NW flow and a deep trough aloft leaving us with much lower heights aloft, we'll be under a very cold air mass this weekend. Highs daytime Sat will range from the upper teens to upper 20s during the morning, with falling temps in the afternoon. Temps Sat night should fall to the single digits in the NYC metro area and closer to the coast, and to 0 to 5 below well inland, with minimum wind chills by daybreak Sunday close to 15 below in the NYC metro area and across Long Island, and 15-20 below inland. Cold weather headlines will likely be needed for Sat night into Sunday morning.

Temps Sat night are unlikely to reach record lows as the records at all climate sites for that day are below zero. Temps could however tie or set record low maxes for Sunday, and then get close to record lows early Monday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR into the afternoon. Evening/night MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow showers. WNW gusts 25-30 kt late Friday night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow showers, mainly east of the NYC terminals. Otherwise VFR. NW winds 20-25kt with gusts 35-40 kt during the day with peak gusts to 45 kt possible. NW wind 15-20 kt with gusts closer to 30 kt Saturday night. Some peak gusts to 35-40 kt possible in the evening.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Quiet conditions expected through most of Friday night. An Arctic cold frontal passage very late Fri night into Sat morning will bring an abrupt transition to gales on all waters Sat into Sat night, possibly into Sunday morning. SCA cond then continue for the rest of Sunday into Sunday evening, lasting on the ern ocean waters into late Sunday night. Freezing spray could be moderate to heavy at times this weekend.

CLIMATE

Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Sun Feb 8:

KEWR: 18/1985 KBDR: 18/1994 KNYC: 8/1895 KLGA: 21/1985 KJFK: 22/1967 KISP: 20/1985

Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934 KBDR: 5/1963 KNYC: -15/1934 KLGA: 7/1979 KJFK: 8/1979 KISP: 5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all time record lows for those sites. Temps are not expected to fall to those levels.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.