textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Special Weather Statement issued for elevated fire spread for the NY forecast zones on Saturday.

Marine Dense Fog Advisory issued for the eastern waters into late tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dense fog across a portion of the forecast waters into late tonight.

2. Mainly dry and mild with elevated fire weather concerns for portions of the area Saturday.

3. Noticeably warmer next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

A noticeable warmup is still on track for next week as overnight lows and daytime highs will be at least 10 degrees to as much as just over 20 degrees above normal, with the warmest day expected Wednesday. Upper ridging will be in place with nearly zonal flow Monday into Tuesday, with re enforcing ridging Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures during Wednesday may peak as high as 16C to 18C with inland temperatures potentially reaching into the mid 80s. With this consistent trend have gone a couple of degrees higher than the deterministic NBM for highs Wednesday. Inland areas will be the warmest as the low level flow remains southwest, while coastal areas will be cooler, but still well above normal levels, with a southerly seas breeze influenced flow. Maximum apparent temperatures will be close to the air temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with dew points expected to ranges in the 50s, and mixing out during Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. A surface trough developing Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, along with sea breezes, may be the focus for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and into the evening with surface based instability and CAPE of a 100 to 300 J/kg. Dew points will lower Thursday behind a cold front which is expected to push through the region late Wednesday night into early Thursday, accompanied with showers and thunderstorms. Next Friday is expected to the cooler behind the cold front, however, temperatures will still be 10 to near 15 degrees above normal. A few record high minimum temperatures may be tied or broken at the climate sites Tuesday, Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Rest of Saturday: VFR. NW winds gusting around 25kt, decreasing aft 22Z.

Sunday: VFR. SE winds 10-20kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 20kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 10-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for a portion of the forecast waters. See KEY MESSAGE 1.

Marginal SCA conditions are forecast on the ocean waters tonight into early Saturday afternoon. While the southerly flow this evening could briefly gust up to 25 kt, gusts will generally remain at or below 20 kt. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft will mainly be due to a long period easterly swell. NW winds on Saturday behind a cold front could gusts up to 25 kt near land, but much of the waters will see gusts less than 20 kt. High pressure then builds in Saturday night into Sunday morning with sub-SCA conditions.

A strengthening southerly flow could bring marginal SCA conditions to the ocean waters on Monday. Any on-going SCA conditions on the ocean waters early Monday night will be slowly subsiding through the night from west to east as southwesterly winds and gusts diminish as high pressure builds south of the forecast waters. Seas across the far eastern ocean waters may not fall below 5 feet until early Tuesday morning. Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels across the waters through Wednesday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ332-340-350. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345-353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.