textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Freeze Warning issued for tonight for metro NYC/NJ.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Widespread freeze expected tonight into Wednesday morning.

2. Drier, cooler conditions settle in midweek.

3. A warming trend for late week with above normal temperatures likely Friday into Saturday. Potential for well above normal temps for early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Good model agreement continues on broad troughing over central Canada and then nrn Plains moving ewd across ern Canada and the Northeast Fri into Sat, which should send a cold front through Sat morning. Prior to fropa, temps should already have begun a warming trend, with highs 65-70 from NYC north/west (5-10 degrees above normal), and mid 50s to lower 60s for Long Island and most of S CT (near normal). Air mass behind the front will be only slightly cooler than that for the weekend as strong Canadian high pressure builds across, with highs mostly from the mid 50s to mid 60s, still a few degrees above normal from NYC north/west.

A more appreciable warming trend should take place early next week as a return flow develops on the back side of the high as it departs out into the Atlantic, and as a warm front passes to the N. Highs on Mon should reach the mid/upper 70s from NYC north/west and the 60s east of there. Even warmer temps expected on Tue, upper 70s/lower 80s from NYC north/west and 60 to lower 70s east. These numbers are 15-20 degrees above normal north/west and about 5-10 degrees above normal east.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night through Friday: VFR.

Friday night: Mainly VFR. Potential for MVFR or lower in rain showers. Highest chances north and west of NYC terminals.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA remains in effect on all waters with gusts 25-30 kt persisting into this evening, more widespread on the ocean waters and more nearshore on the non-ocean waters. Highest ocean seas attm are still close to 5 ft early this evening but will be on the wane.

Sub-SCA conditions expected late tonight into Fri morning via a weak pressure gradient under high pressure. Then hazardous ocean seas of 5+ ft area possible from Fri afternoon into Sat evening via incoming SE swell from an offshore low, with the highest swells of 6 ft Fri night into Sat morning. These hazardous seas should subside Sat evening after a cold frontal passage.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176>179. NJ...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.