textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There have been no changes to headlines and only minor changes to the snowfall and wind forecast for the expected major blizzard.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A major blizzard will bring heavy snowfall and high winds to the area late this afternoon through the first half of Monday.

2) Widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding with tonight into early Monday morning high tide. There is a low probability of major coastal/shoreline impacts along the south shore of western Long Island, Twin Forks of LI, and north shore of Long Island.

3) A passing warm front will bring some light snow and rain on Wednesday. A stronger low passing north and west will bring additional wintry precip Thursday into Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3

As a clipper low passes to the north on Wednesday, an associated warm front should bring some light snow and rain on Wed. Accumulations should be on the light side, ranging from less than an inch across Long Island, to around an inch in NYC and along the CT coastline, to 1-2 inches north/west of there.

A stronger low moving from the OH valley to the lower Great Lakes on Thu could bring more wintry precip. NBM thermal profiles were mainly supportive of snow and/or rain, while blend of 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF thermal profiles shows temps warming aloft and are more in favor of light snow changing to a wintry mix inland, and rain in the NYC metro area and along the coast. Any snow/ice amts should be light, no more than an inch or two of snow most places and a light glaze of ice inland NW of NYC. Either way advisories could be needed for parts of the interior north/west of I-287 in NJ/NY and along the I-84 corridor in CT.

High temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to lower 30s, then trend closer to normal the rest of the week. This will allow for gradual snow melt each day, and with mostly sub-freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent re-freeze of snow melt.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday night: Improving to VFR. NW Winds gusting 20-28kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday Night-Wednesday: MVFR possible with chance of light snow Tuesday night, then rain/snow mix Wednesday.

Thursday: MVFR or lower. Rain/snow mix possible near coast with snow possible inland.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A major blizzard will impact the waters through Monday.

A Storm Warning is now in effect for all waters expect the NY Harbor where a Gale Warning is in effect.

Winds increase tonight and peak late tonight into early Monday morning. Given the slight increase in forecast gusts, a brief period of hurricane force wind gusts are possible in the eastern ocean zone (Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point). Strong winds will lead to 14 to 20 ft seas on the ocean and about 6 to 10 inches on the LI Sound.

Conditions gradually start improving late Monday and additional headlines will need to be issued as conditions step down.

SCA conditions linger into Tue morning on the ern Sound and Peconic/Gardiners bays, with NW flow still gusting up to 25 kt, and on the ocean for gusts up to 30 kt for seas 6-8 ft. Some 5-6 ft seas should linger on the ocean into early Tue evening.

An extended period of SCA cond then likely on the ocean from Wed into Fri as a series of frontal systems pass through, mainly for hazardous seas. SW flow 20-25 kt expected on the ocean with warm frontal approaches daytime Wed and again Thu night. Along the oceanfront, areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible tonight into Monday morning.

CLIMATE

With the potential major snowstorm Sunday into Monday, there is the potential for some snowfall records to be broken. Here are the records for Sunday and Monday for the climate sites:

Sun 2/22 Mon 2/23

Central Park, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972 LaGuardia, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972 John F Kennedy, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987 Newark, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987 Islip, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987 Bridgeport, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EST early this morning for CTZ009-010. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for CTZ011-012. NY...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EST early this morning for NYZ071-073-078-176-177. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EST early this morning for NYZ072-074-075-178. Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for NYZ079-081. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ079>081-179. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for NYZ080-179. NJ...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EST early this morning for NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-340- 345-350-353-355. Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ335. Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.