textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure takes over tonight and exits south tomorrow. A frontal system then impacts the area Sunday evening through Monday. Behind a strong cold front Monday night, low pressure moves northeast of the region and strengthens, getting into the Canadian Maritimes by early Tuesday. The strong low pressure retrogrades into Southeast Canada through Tuesday night. A weakening cold front approaches midweek and stalls near the region for the start of the new year with another weak low moving along it. This area of low pressure shifts east of the area Friday with high pressure building in behind it for the start of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

High pressure noses in from the north tonight and settles across the region.

Continued seasonably cold tonight, with lows primarily in the mid to upper teens to lower 20s. Lingering clouds should dissipate enough to foster a period of primarily clear skies. With that though, black ice development remains a concern as BUFKIT soundings do indicate the potential for radiational driven freezing fog. This is showing up more in the RAP and HRRR guidance with the presence of a ground, or near ground based inversion. Area roadways, bridges, and any untreated surfaces are at risk. This will be monitored into the late evening and overnight. An SPS is in place region wide for this concern.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/

Key Messages:

* Rainfall likely Sunday evening through a part of Monday. May initially start as freezing rain at the onset in interior locations Sunday evening into early Sunday night before transitioning.

* A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Sunday evening through early Sunday night in Orange & Putnam counties for freezing rain.

* Warmer temps and rainfall Sunday into Monday will lead to significant snowmelt.

High pressure exits south on Sunday as a low pressure system traverses the Great Lakes. This low brings a warm front through Sunday evening into Sunday night.

At the coast, highs on Sunday should reach the low 40s, then the mid- 30s inland. Some snow will melt with this, particularly across coastal sections.

Interior locations should cool to around or just below freezing Sunday evening before the warm front passes Sunday night. This may be helped by existing snowpack. The concern is for freezing rain. POPs increase with the warm frontal passage, but cold temps may hang on long enough in interior locations to lead to freezing rain. Confidence is now high enough to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Orange and Putnam counties. Freezing rain may also be possible in other interior locations in southern Connecticut and New Jersey, but confidence is too low to issue advisories in these locations, due to possible fluctuations in the arrival time of the warm front or temperatures possibly warming too much on Sunday to prevent temperatures becoming cold enough for freezing rain to occur. However, this certainly remains worth watching. Should temperatures trend colder, significant ice accumulations become more possible. However, as it stands now, we're expecting only trace accumulations with some higher elevated locations in Orange & Putnam counties reach accumulations above a trace, but below a tenth of an inch.

As temperatures warm into Sunday night, interior locations will switch over to rain under warming surface temps. About 0.25-0.5" of QPF is expected across the area. Most of this QPF will fall SUnday night with the warm front, but some of it may continue into the day Monday with FROPA and the low passes to our north.

Prior to FROPA on Monday, temperatures should peak into the low-50s. This, along with rainfall, with lead to significant snowmelt of existing snowpack.

Westerly winds will begin increasing following FROPA on Monday as the surface low deepens to our northeast under a strong trough deepening over the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key Messages:

* Polar airmass encompasses the region during the long term period. Below normal temperatures on average. Temperatures only rise to mid 30s at most. Wind chills pretty much stay below freezing the whole time.

* Gusty westerly flow behind strong cold front Monday night and continues through Tuesday evening before trending downward. Gusts up to near 35 to 40 mph forecast. * Chance of snow Thursday into Thursday night. Too early to determine specific accumulations but there is a possibility for a few inches of snow.

Mid level cutoff low passes north of the region Monday night into Tuesday. This then retrogrades into Southeast Canada through midweek and remains in Eastern Canada heading into late week. A mean trough pattern remains with various shortwaves of varying amplitude passing through for the week ahead. More of a pattern shift is evident within the mid levels for the start of next weekend, with more ridging.

At the surface, behind a strong cold front, low pressure will strengthen as it moves towards the Canadian Maritimes. This same low pressure area will continue to strengthen Tuesday into Wednesday. This will make for a steepening pressure gradient between this low and high pressure, which is going to stay well to the south and west of the local region. Gusty westerly flow is forecast Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds decrease late Tuesday night into midweek and will not be as gusty without much change in speed thereafter.

Monday night, possible shower activity behind cold front including snow shower activity with the cold air advection. Expecting mainly dry conditions otherwise.

A weak cold front approaches Wednesday into Wednesday night with its parent low moving through northern New England. This cold front stalls out within the area for the first day of the new year on Thursday with low pressure developing along it. The next main chance of precipitation will be on Thursday with a chance for snow across the entire area, that extend into Thursday night before tapering off.

This low shifts east of the area Thursday night into Friday. High pressure builds in from the west for later Friday into the first weekend of the new year. Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday through Saturday.

Temperatures throughout the entire period remain quite cold and average below normal. Monday night through Saturday, forecast temperatures stay below 40 the entire time. Daytime high temperatures forecast mostly in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday night: MVFR, then quickly to IFR and rain at night, possibly starting as -FZRA north of the city terminals in the evening. LIFR possible later at night.

Monday: IFR with rain/showers, Improving to VFR late day/early evening. SW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-30kt.

Wednesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in -SN.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA conditions remain on ocean waters until 10 PM tonight for 5 ft seas and 25 kt gusts. After 10 PM, conditions fall below SCA criteria under high pressure. SCA conditions return ahead of a frontal system late in the day on Monday.

Potential for gales on all waters Monday night through Tuesday night. SCA conditions likely for midweek with low chance of gales on the ocean. SCA conditions become less probable Thursday into Thursday night for non-ocean waters but for the ocean zones will probably stay in SCA range.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic issues expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 2 AM EST Monday for NYZ067-068. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.