textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A series of weak cold fronts push through over the next couple of days. Despite this it remains predominantly dry and seasonably mild.

2) Low pressure may impact the region late Thursday into Friday night, bringing potential of widespread rain and gusty winds. Impacts, if any, at this time remain uncertain.

KEY MESSAGE 2

No significant changes to the potential complex system toward the end of the week.

The medium range global and AI guidance continue to wrestle with different details / scenarios with regard to low pressure emerging out of the Ohio Valley during Wednesday night into Thursday. The difference among the NWP and AI guidance increases Friday into early Saturday with regard to whether the upper level energy catches up to sfc low pressure and lower level moisture. This scenario would stall low pressure and give it another means to deepen later Friday into early Saturday. Thus there are two solutions.

The first being a flatter wave which brings light rain Thursday into Friday morning, with low pressure strengthening well offshore with clearing to begin the weekend. The second scenario would involve a less progressive storm system with consolidated redevelopment off the Northern Mid Atlantic coast just south of Long Island with rain redeveloping later Friday and Friday night and potentially lasting into Saturday morning.

At this time impacts appear limited with rain being more stratiform in nature and the winds likely having enough of a northerly component which would limit any coastal flood concerns. It is possible that some wet snow could mix in with any rain in the higher elevations well inland as the region gets on the back side of the storm system Friday night / early Saturday morning. Confidence in this occurring is rather low at this time with the lack of a low level cold air source, with any impacts appearing to be negligible based on the latest NWP consensus forecast. Some gusty winds may develop closer to the coast during this time frame, with gusty winds possible region wide as the system departs Friday night into Saturday. Latest guidance is not indicating wind advisory conditions, but this may be subject to change if stronger development occurs closer to the coast later Friday and Friday night.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday through Friday night: VFR Thursday morning, lowering to MVFR/IFR in the afternoon and lasting through Friday night with periods of rain. E winds G 25-30kt possible Thurs afternoon and evening, shifting northerly for Friday with gusts around 25kt still possible through Friday night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR with showers, mainly in the morning. Snow showers possibly mixed in north of the city terminals. N-NW winds G. 20-25kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A pressure gradient remains in place through the first half of the week with small craft conditions and marginal small craft conditions much of the time through at least Tuesday. Will continue small craft conditions for most of the non-ocean through today, with far eastern LI Sound likely maintaining small craft conditions into a good portion of the evening.

A brief lull in SCA conditions are anticipated late tonight and into Tuesday morning but another low pressure is expected to result in SCA wind gusts and waves on the ocean. As such, the SCA on the central and eastern ocean zones has been extended through 6Z Wednesday. The western ocean zone will likely need another SCA but the gap between the winding down of SCA conditions tonight and the return of SCA conditions on Tuesday is large enough to not issue at this time.

Conditions wane into Wednesday with sub-SCA conditions expected for all waters until late Thursday with small craft conditions returning across all waters and will likely continue into at least the first half of the weekend. A period of gales is possible on the ocean and potentially a portion of the non-ocean waters later in this time frame depending on the development of low pressure along and off the coast.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ332- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.