textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Cold Weather Advisory has been expanded to include Bergen, Rockland, Westchester, and Putnam counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frigid conditions continue through Saturday. A Cold Weather Advisory is in place 1 am through 10 am Thursday for all of NE NJ, NYC metro, Lower Hudson Valley, and Nassau County.

2) A strong storm develops over the western Atlantic this weekend. Snow is possible on Sunday with highest chances of accumulation currently across eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut.

3) Gusty winds and at minor coastal flooding are possible Sunday despite growing likelihood the coastal storm passes well offshore.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The western Atlantic storm system is progged to deepen rapidly this weekend. Several models have the central pressure dropping to around 970 mb or even lower. The deeper the storm over the western Atlantic brings concerns for strong gusty winds Sunday into Sunday night, especially near our coasts, even if the system stays hundreds of miles offshore. N winds could gust 35-45 mph across portions of eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. If the low ends up a bit closer to the coast, the chance for Advisory level winds (at least 45 mph gusts) would increase and expand further inland. These details will be refined over the next several days.

There is also a chance for at least minor coastal flooding and beach erosion/beach flooding. A full moon occurs on Sunday coinciding with when the storm system is at its strongest over the western Atlantic. An early look at some of the surge guidance shows potential for widespread minor coastal flooding. A few of the more vulnerable locations across the south shore back bays of Nassau County could approach moderate benchmarks. There is a large amount of spread in the guidance at this time owing to the spread in the uncertainty in track and strength of the low pressure.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 20kt.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR initially, then MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow, mainly late night Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the terminals east of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night to 20-25 kt, then 30-35kt on Sunday. There is low confidence at this time on the magnitude of winds and snow.

Monday: VFR with NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub advisory conditions through Thursday for all waters. Marginal small craft conditions should then begin to take place on the ocean with gusts getting close to 25 kt at times Thursday night and Friday. Sub advisory conditions prevail on a NW to NW flow Friday night.

Conditions on the waters should remain below SCA levels. Winds and seas increase Saturday night into Sunday as an intense low pressure system develops over the Western Atlantic. Gale conditions are likely with increasing potential for storm force winds on the portions of the ocean waters Sunday into Sunday night. Small craft conditions are expected to linger into Monday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for NYZ067>075-176>179. NJ...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None.