textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased POPs for today and Tuesday relative to previous forecast. Otherwise, no other significant changes made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to widely scattered shower activity for afternoon into evening today and Tuesday. A slight chance of a thunderstorm also for some locations afternoon into early evening.

2) Brief totally dry conditions midweek but chances for showers and thunderstorms return with greater coverage potential Thursday into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The open wave trough heading into midweek is forecast to shift farther northeast. Across the local area, ridging takes place with a quasi-zonal flow. The ridge axis though already moves across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. For late Wednesday night into Thursday, the flow aloft is returning to more SW flow and the next trough will start to move into interior portions of the Northeast. The trough will continue to move east with its closed upper level low for late week but does not push as much south as the previous trough has done for the early week period. Heights aloft across the local area do not change too significantly and any height falls will be slight.

At the surface, weak large area of high pressure builds across the area Wednesday but will be centered fairly quickly offshore. Then there will be an approaching frontal system from the west for Thursday. This may linger into Friday with a lingering associated cold front. The aforementioned heights aloft and farther northward track of the closed low will mean less steering flow for this front. The forecast has the next showers and thunderstorms for the area within this Thursday through Friday night timeframe with showers being likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Chances for thunderstorms are present and should be able to develop as the airmass becomes a warm and humid airmass with the synoptic setup. The driving factors appear to be more in the low levels compared to the upper levels.

Highs forecast Thursday and Friday more in the low to mid 80s but with dewpoints in upper 60s to near 70, max heat indices reach in the upper 80s to near 90 for parts of the region.

OUTLOOK FOR 12z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday: VFR. WSW around 10 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds.

Thursday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA.

Friday: Mostly VFR, with a brief period of sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

The pressure gradient remains relatively weak on average through midweek across the local region. As a result, conditions on the forecast waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds.

There will be increasing potential for small craft conditions at least on the ocean late week with high pressure offshore and an approaching frontal system. This will set up a tightening pressure gradient.

Rip Currents:

For the ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island, multiple onshore components comprise the waves for both today and Tuesday. The wave heights forecast are near 2 to 3 feet today and will be around 2 ft on Tuesday. The forecast winds are more onshore today with more SW flow and will be more westerly on Tuesday. Max daytime wind speeds for both days will be within the 10-15 kt range.

With the more onshore winds and relatively greater wave heights today, this will present a moderate risk of rip currents.

With the more westerly winds and less onshore component and slightly lower wave heights Wednesday, this will still present a moderate risk of rip currents but some ocean beaches could end up being more on the low side for rip current risks.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.