textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Small Craft Advisory was issued for the ocean waters from 8 pm tonight through 8 pm Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Next main rain event will be today into Monday morning. Possible thunderstorms late this afternoon into early this evening. There is a marginal risk of flooding and marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Rain could linger into Monday, possibly briefly mixing with snow across parts of the interior before all precipitation ends.

2) Another frontal system impacts the region Thursday through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Another frontal system impacts the region from the Great Lakes Thursday morning through Friday night, but best chances for precipitation look to be Thursday night into Friday. However, there is still pretty good spread in solutions among the deterministic models. While mainly anticipated to be rain, differences in timing and positions of the low and cold front could lead to some snow mixing in, in some scenarios. Model solutions should converge on a more solid solution over the next few days.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday night: MVFR, possibly IFR with showers, and an isolated thunderstorm possible mainly NYC and south until 02Z. Then MVFR to IFR with rain.

Monday: MVFR or lower, especially before 18Z. NW winds increasing to around 25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Lgt N winds becoming S.

Wednesday: VFR with S/SW flow.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR with shwrs. SW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub SCA expected through this afternoon. Waves increase tonight to 5 ft on the ocean on a southerly flow, then winds increase to around 25 kt after the cold frontal passage on Monday, therefore, a SCA was issued for the ocean waters from 8 pm tonight through 8 pm Monday. An extension into Monday night may be needed, especially from Fire Island inlet and points east. Less confidence in gusts to 25 kt for all other waters, but the possibility exists. Will have to monitor further for the possible issuance of SCAs for these waters.

Sub-SCA conditions expected under high pressure Tuesday through Wednesday. Thursday night into Friday a return to SCA conditions is possible under increased onshore SW flow.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.