textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Localized flash flood threat through around midnight, and then once again on Tuesday. Severe wx threat is likely over.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms likely developing across NYC/NJ metro after 9-10pm and then continuing intermittently overnight. Localized flash flood threat this evening, mainly over areas that saw heavier rain this afternoon. Diminishing flash flood threat overnight. Severe wx threat is likely over.

2. Areas of urban and poor drainage flooding, and localized flash flood threat on Tuesday with widespread moderate to locally heavy rain/embedded tstms likely Tuesday along the coastal plain.

2. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Thursday afternoon through the start of the weekend.

3. A high rip current risk expected for the ocean beaches of NYC, Nassau and western Suffolk, and may be ongoing at all the ocean beaches into part of Tuesday morning. See Marine section for details.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Southwest flow aloft looks to set up by late Thursday into Friday ahead of the next shortwave/cold front. This would help to trigger the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms. Confidence is starting to increase that the greatest potential ends up on Thursday night into Friday when the shortwave axis is currently progged to move across the area. Additional upper disturbances look to keep the chance for showers/storms around into the start of the weekend as well.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Night: VFR with light NW flow.

Wednesday: VFR with NW flow.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible at night with increasing chances of showers, becoming likely late north and west of NYC. A chance of thunderstorms. S wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into eve.

Friday-Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with showers at times. A chance of thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts up to 20 kt possible in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

S flow will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching cold front and developing surface low. All waters except the Sound and Peconic/Gardiners Bays remain under a SCA from through tonight, for gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas up to 5 ft.

Rip Currents:

High rip current risk this evening with 4 to 5 ft breaking surf ahead of approaching frontal system.

Moderate risk is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday as winds turn offshore, but lingering 2 to 3 ft southerly swells continue.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ338-345-350- 353-355.