textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and continued cold through Friday.

2) An Arctic cold front will bring light snow accumulation Friday night into Saturday along with frigid air, strong winds and hazardous/dangerous wind chills through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Heights drop aloft Friday through Saturday as a longwave trough w/closed upper low over Hudson Bay deepens over the eastern US. Shortwave energy aloft from Alberta will pass to the south Friday night, while WAA ahead of the Arctic front approaches from the Great Lakes. This should bring some light accumulating snow Fri night. Then strong forced ascent with the Arctic front and accompanying shortwave forcing and low to mid level frontogenesis, along with some weak vertical stability, should keep light snow going into daytime Sat mainly across Long Island and S CT. There could even be some interaction between the digging trough and a rapidly intensifying offshore low on Sat, with an inverted trough extending NW from the offshore low possibly providing some enhanced low level convergence out east. Snowfall during this time may be more showery or squally.

Totals snowfall of 1-2 inches appears likely for most of Long Island and S CT likely, with a dusting to an inch west of there.

The more impactful weather will likely end up being the cold air and strong winds, leading to potentially dangerous wind chills late day Saturday into Saturday night. Winds and wind gusts were adjusted toward higher NBM percentiles and MOS, while NBM temperatures looked reasonable. This leads to NW winds meeting advisory criteria Sat into Sat evening, sustained 25-35 mph with gusts 45-50 mph possible over a good portion of the area (especially NYC metro and along the coast). Winds will not be quite as strong late Sat night into early Sunday morning, still sustained at 10-20 mph. Combined with low temps 0 to 5 below well inland and in the single digits elsewhere, wind chills late Saturday night into early Sunday morning will be as low as 20-25 below well inland, 15-20 below most elsewhere, and 10-15 below in NYC and the immediate surrounding east/west suburbs. Extreme Cold watches may be necessary for most of the area for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR stratus.

Friday Night: MVFR or lower at times in snow, likely late at night. WNW gusts 15-20 kt late.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in snow, mainly east of NYC terminals. Lower chances of snow in the afternoon. VFR returns by Saturday night. NW winds 20-30 kt with gusts 35-45 kt, highest afternoon into early evening. Winds and gusts gradually decrease thereafter.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub advisory conditions are expected through Friday night. NW winds should ramp up immediately to gale force following Arctic cold fropa Sat morning, and continue into Sat night, with peak gusts 40-45 kt. Due to cold air/water temps and strong winds, moderate to heavy freezing spray is also possible during this time frame.

SCA cond will follow for all waters daytime Sunday, then winds gradually ramp down over the ocean/Sound/bays Sunday evening. Hazardous seas should linger into late Sunday night/Monday morning and possibly beyond.

CLIMATE

Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Sun Feb 8:

KEWR: 18/1985 KBDR: 18/1994 KNYC: 8/1895 KLGA: 21/1985 KJFK: 22/1967 KISP: 20/1985

Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934 KBDR: 5/1963 KNYC: -15/1934 KLGA: 7/1979 KJFK: 8/1979 KISP: 5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all time record lows for those sites. Temperature are not expected to fall to those levels.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.