textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Airmass will trend from mild and warmer than normal today through early Thursday to colder than normal for Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures forecast to be seasonably cold Friday night.

2) Precipitation with rain showers today into tonight mixes with snow Thursday before all precipitation ends. Some light snow accumulations forecast north and west of NYC. Light precipitation event overall with less than quarter inch of rain/liquid equivalent.

3) Winds become quite breezy Thursday and Friday with frequent gusts within the 25 to 35 mph range. This is mostly a gusty westerly flow, although winds expected to become more SW late Friday. Single digit wind chills for most locations Thursday night into Friday morning.

4) A disorganized series of frontal systems move over the area this weekend which may result in chances of light snow or rain with a much colder airmass building over the area through early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 4

A trough digs west of the area with multiple pieces of mid-level energy rotating through it this weekend. These will result in a relatively weak, disorganized, and complex areas of low pressure over much of the Northeast through the weekend and into early next week. As the several weak systems move through the area, chances of light snow or initially rain closer to the coast will be possible Saturday through Sunday evening. If it occurs, as PoPs only indicate a slight chance (20%) of precipitation, it will be light in intensity and disorganized.

By Monday, a more robust area of mid-level energy sweeps through allowing in a more significant low pressure intensification as it develops and moves to the northeast of the area. This is not anticipated to impact the CWA in any meaningful way with respect to sensible weather.

The most significant part of this pattern will be the rapid change in airmass that maintains over the area into next week. Temperatures on Saturday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. By Sunday, high temperatures will be below average, only in the low 30s with colder temperatures anticipated for early next week. Highs by Tuesday will only be in the 20s. Wind chills by Monday night may be in the single digits.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: Slight chance light rain/snow early with MVFR or lower possible. Otherwise VFR. W-NW wind gusts 20 to 25 kt.

Friday: VFR. W-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance MVFR or lower at times with slight chance of rain and/or snow late in the day into the evening.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR to IFR or lower in light snow late in the day.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA conditions are confined to the ocean waters. The ocean waters are expected to remain mostly with SCA conditions through Thursday as seas will subside briefly this evening only to trend back up thereafter. For the non-ocean waters, they too are expected to meet SCA criteria for wind gusts on Thursday.

Widespread SCA level wind gusts are expected Thursday through Friday for all forecast waters with the potential for gales as well Thursday night into early Friday. There is a gale watch in effect for the ocean zones for all of Thursday night as well as Friday morning where there is higher confidence for reaching gales. SCA level winds likely drop off for non-ocean waters Friday night but will likely linger onward for the ocean. Seas on the ocean are also forecast to stay elevated in the SCA range Thursday night through Friday night.

Though wind relaxes on Saturday, elevated wave heights will maintain SCA criteria on the ocean through the weekend.

EQUIPMENT

KOKX Doppler Radar remains out of service.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ANZ350-353-355.