textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gale watch posted for the ocean waters with the potential for NE gales from Tuesday through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of rain, mainly light, will come to end from NW to SE tonight with a cold frontal passage.

2) A frontal wave is expected to bring another chance of rain to the area Monday night to Tuesday along with gusty NE winds.

3) A prolonged period of NE gales is possible, especially on the ocean waters, from Tuesday through the end of the week. There is the potential for high surf, dangerous rip currents, and beach erosion.

KEY MESSAGE 3

As previously discussed the area will reside between an anomalously strong high to the north and a broad area of low pressure off the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coasts. Late in the week, offshore low pressure interacts with mid latitude energy, rapidly deepening in the Thursday to Friday timeframe. The 06Z operational GFS which was an outlier with the other globals and its own ensemble, now is getting some support from the 12Z ECMWF and EC-AIFS in retrograding the deepening low toward the forecast area. However, there is still little support from the ensembles and the AIGFS at this time. It's complex with the interaction of multiple streams in the polar jet. Definitely something to watch, especially with a prolonged period of NE flow and increasing astronomical tides. High surf, dangerous rips currents, beach erosion, and coastal flooding are all on the table, but much too early to have specific details.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Monday THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday afternoon: VFR. N-NE wind gusts near 20 kt.

Tuesday through Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. NE wind gusts 20-25 kt Tuesday and 20 to 30 kt Wednesday and Thursday, highest at the coastal terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA is in effect for the ocean waters out to 20 nm from Monday into Tuesday, followed by a gale watch Tue night. The gale watch goes up on the outermost ocean zones (out 20 to 60 nm) beginning Tue afternoon.

An anomalously strong high building across eastern Canada this week and low pressure off the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coasts will result in a prolonged period of strong NE flow from Tuesday through the end of the week. There could be a prolonged period of gales on the ocean waters and possibly the eastern non-ocean waters, especially late in the week depending on the magnitude and track of a coastal low. There is even a small chance at this time for storm force gusts. Preference at this time was to back off on the higher wind gusts of the NBM based on latest model soundings and model consensus absent the NBM bias correction.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk should remain moderate through Monday. Combined seas will build to near 5 ft on Monday, with some long period 2-ft SE swell.

Strengthening NE flow and building seas will likely produce a high rip current risk and high surf, possibly as early as Tue and definitely from Wed through at least Sat. As ocean swells gradually increase to 10-15 ft with periods of about 10-11 seconds, would expect surf heights to become at least half that high given a more longshore current vs direct onshore trajectory.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for ANZ380-383-385.