textproduct: New York

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances gradually coming up for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Conditions gradually warm and remain mostly dry ahead of an approaching cold front through Friday.

2) Increasing chances of rain for Sunday as a frontal wave possibly grazes the area. No impacts expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Much of the guidance continues to trend toward increasing chances for rain on Sunday. This yo-yoing the last several days is related to the amount backing ahead of an approaching shortwave and how close a surface frontal wave gets to the area. It's still a close call with the forecast area on the NW fringe of the system. Rainfall amounts look light at this time with the area getting scraped. 01Z NBM prob > 0.25" about 20 to 40 percent across the area (highest at the coast), but even lower for the LREF (GEFs, GEPs, EPS) mean.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers in the afternoon, becoming likely for some locations at night.

Saturday-Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday night-Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers late at night into early Monday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Light SW flow continues through Thursday with high pressure settling offshore. Winds and seas increase with an approaching cold front Friday and this could lead to a brief period of SCA conditions on some of the coastal ocean waters late Friday afternoon or Friday evening. Confidence remains too low at this time to issue a SCA. Also, model soundings show it being highly inverted across the waters ahead of an approaching cold front. NBM gusts were lowered to 110% of the sustained.

Easterly winds pick up on Sunday with gusts possibly approaching 25 kt for a brief time, otherwise winds and seas across all waters are expected to remain below advisory levels this weekend into early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.

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