textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gale Warning issued for the ocean waters, otherwise no significant changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Moderate rain through the first half of tonight.

2) Gusty west-northwest winds develop Sunday afternoon and continue into Sunday night.

3) Cold front arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a return to cold temperatures.

4) Forecast uncertainty remains high Wednesday night through Friday around coastal low development.

KEY MESSAGE 4

Towards Wednesday night into early Thursday the longwave pattern amplifies as the ridge out west sharpens, and the trough in the east amplifies in turn. This amplification is supported by the consensus of global NWP and AI guidance. At this time it is difficult to time the wave packets, and thus the timing, position and strength of storm development. Much of the guidance is suggesting the frontal boundary slowing and the development of low pressure with the amplification of the pattern with the upper level flow becoming more or less parallel to the front. Suffice it to say there remains a chance of precipitation, with precipitation type remaining uncertain during this time frame. Therefore impacts are not known at this time.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday afternoon: Sub VFR possible for eastern terminals, otherwise VFR. W winds G25-30 kt in the afternoon.

Monday: VFR. WNW wind G20-25 kt in the morning.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain showers.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain or snow showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gale Warning in effect for the ocean waters Sunday night with a Gale Watch elsewhere.

East winds ahead of frontal wave this evening will produce marginal SCA condition on the ocean waters this evening. Winds may fall off for a time as they switch around to the the W/SW around or shortly after midnight. However, a southerly swell will continue to build seas across the waters into Sunday. West wind strengthen Sunday with gale force gusts likely on the ocean waters Sunday night. Confidence is lower for the non-ocean waters, where a Gale Watch remains up. Marginal SCA conditions likely continue Monday into Monday night.

Small craft conditions are likely on the ocean waters for much of the second half of next week. SCA conditions will be possible at times on the non-ocean waters, with the best chance Tuesday night into Wednesday. A coastal low may impact the waters late in the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350- 353-355.