textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Shower and thunderstorm potential has been delayed until later tonight with the latest update.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday.
2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly in the evening and overnight, and again Sunday afternoon and evening.
3) Relatively cooler temperatures into the weekend with a more significant cool down early next week to unseasonable levels.
KEY MESSAGE 3
Weak frontal system with some support aloft from a mid level shortwave on Friday will increase shower chances across most of the CWA. Some shear, but very little instability for late afternoon per model soundings should make any thunder potential conditional on destabilization. On Sunday, a stronger cold front is progged to move through bringing another chance of rain during the afternoon with perhaps some wet snow mixing in post front by early Monday, especially north and west of NYC. NBM probabilities of more than 0.5" of precipitation are only around 20-30%, owing to quick moving, mainly light event.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Thursday: VFR. Gusty S winds.
Friday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm especially in the afternoon and early evening, with MVFR or lower cond.
Saturday: VFR.
Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon.
Monday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly swell to around 5 ft Fri afternoon, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA level into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will bring near SCA conditions Sunday into Monday.
CLIMATE
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:
Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024
Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:
Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023
Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012
Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002. KISP: 61/2002
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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