textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Western Suffolk County and Middlesex County are now included in the Flood Watch.

The timing of the heaviest rain has trended later. Have extended the Flood Watch end time to 8 PM Wednesday. Have also pushed back the start time of the Flood Watch to 2 PM today for the southern CT and Long Island Counties in the Watch.

A Rip Current Statement has been issued for today for all ocean beaches.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A slow moving low pressure system will bring multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms to the area today through Wednesday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for most of the area, with the potential for life threatening flash flooding.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents today and Wednesday. (See Marine section below for discussion)

3) Potential for minor coastal flooding mid to late week with a coastal low.

KEY MESSAGE 3

With the approach of a full moon midweek and an onshore E/SE flow with low pressure passing close by, minor coastal flooding is a possibility. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty at this time. Latest forecast brings some of the south shore back bay locations of LI and western LI Sound to just below minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening/nighttime high tide cycles.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Night: MVFR or IFR in SHRA/TSRA, S-SE winds G15-20kt, becoming variable late as low pressure moves over the area.

Wednesday: Mostly MVFR/VFR conditions likely with showers. Thunderstorms and brief IFR possible.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible. Showers possible and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. N-NW wind G15-20kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A S/SE flow increases today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters. The flow peaks tonight with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Ocean seas are expected to build to 5 to 6 feet. By Wednesday afternoon, sub SCA conditions are expected.

Sub SCA conditions likely then continue through early next week.

Rip Currents...

The rip current risk today has been upgraded to high. While the morning may start off more moderate, a strengthening S/SE flow and building swell are expected to bring a high risk by the afternoon. Both local guidance and RCMOS show this.

The high rip current risk continues Wednesday morning and then may lower to moderate by the afternoon. While winds will be weakening, there will be a lingering S/SE swell around 4 to 5 ft at 7s.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Wednesday evening for CTZ005>007-009>011. NY...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Wednesday evening for NYZ078-080-177-179. Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Wednesday evening for NYZ067>075-176-178. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Wednesday evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-340. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338-345-355. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353.