textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances of showers have increased for tonight into Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend continues through Wednesday.

2) Multiple chances of showers through the weekend, with potential thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A frontal boundary will set up north of the area today and linger through midweek before moving through as a cold front. Thereafter the front may linger near the area, with a potential frontal wave late in the week into the weekend. This setup will bring multiple chances of showers through the weekend, with potential thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

The first batch of showers is likely to occur late this evening through early Tuesday morning. Latest CAMs have been more aggressive with this round and PoPs have increased. Weak lift is evident in a moistening column. This will likely result in scattered rain shower activity, mainly light. QPF from this is expected to remain under a quarter of an inch.

The greater chances for showers will be when the front to our north start to move through as a cold front late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Greater lift and even some tall skinny instability will result in more of a potential for downpours and thunderstorms during this timeframe.

Thereafter, there is some disagreement in exactly where the front gets hung up. This will impact PoPs through the end of the week into the weekend. PoPs are in the forecast Thursday through Monday but this will not be a washout. This is the result of timing and frontal location differences in the guidance.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Late Tonight: Showers likely. Chance of MVFR, especially inland and CT terminals.

Tuesday-Tuesday Night: Early AM showers ending. Otherwise, mainly VFR. SW-SSW wind gusts 15-25 kt, strongest in the afternoon and evening. Chance of MVFR or lower and LLWS at night.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower and LLWS early. MVFR or lower with showers likely in the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorm possible. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Thursday: Chance of showers. MVFR or lower possible. E wind gusts 20 kt possible.

Friday: Chance of showers and MVFR. S wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

The Small Craft Advisory for the ocean waters has been extended through Wednesday. This Advisory will likely need to be extended multiple times as seas remain elevated at least through the end of the week.

A Small Craft Advisory has also been issued for all non-ocean waters for today. This is mainly due to nearshore gusts of 25 to 30 kt. There will be other chances this week for some non-ocean waters to see SCA criteria. At this time it looks marginal.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 1: KEWR: 82/1978 KBDR: 71/1955 KNYC: 83/1917 KLGA: 80/1978 KJFK: 75/1978 KISP: 67/1999

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 31: KEWR: 63/1998 KBDR: 50/1998 KNYC: 66/1998 KLGA: 59/1998 KJFK: 51/1981 KISP: 52/1998

April 1: KEWR: 62/2016 KBDR: 53/2016 KNYC: 61/2016 KLGA: 56/2016 KJFK: 52/2016 KISP: 54/2016

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.