textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes were made.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Mostly dry through Wednesday.
2) Widespread rain expected Wednesday night and Thursday.
3) Low potential at this time for an offshore low pressure system to bring unsettled weather to the area this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 3
The next chance for unsettled weather could come this weekend with a passing offshore low. The GFS and ICON are more aggressive showing phasing of the northern and southern stream with a surface low deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This would bring better chances for seeing wet weather and windy conditions. Both the ECMWF and GDPS are either offshore or weaker with this system, so there is plenty of uncertainty. Stuck with NBM slight chance PoPs for now, since even the more aggressive scenarios bring the low a little too far offshore.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
Late tonight-Wednesday Afternoon: VFR.
Wednesday night: Showers with MVFR or lower conditions.
Thursday: Showers tapering off in the morning. MVFR or lower conditions in the morning, becoming VFR in the afternoon. NW winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon.
Friday: VFR. WNW winds G20-25kt.
Saturday: Chance of mainly afternoon showers with MVFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Small Craft Advisories remain in place for the ocean waters out to 20 nm through today due to lingering 5-ft swell from an offshore low. The central and eastern ocean zones continue SCA conditions into tonight, where confidence is a bit higher for 5ft seas to linger.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on Wednesday.
SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters out to 20 nm Thu-Fri with the passage of a cold front, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5- 6 ft. There is lesser potential for some of the non-ocean waters to see 25 kt gusts as well.
Uncertainty increases thereafter. There is potential for an offshore low to pass close enough to bring impacts.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
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