textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased temperatures and heat index values for late week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periodic light showers, mainly close to the coast, tonight.

2) High heat and humidity becoming increasingly likely from mid to late next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A highly anomalous amplified upper flow will be featured across the country from mid to late week, with a trough out west and a a high centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. H5 heights in the East will be close to 596 dm, about 2 SD above normal, and H8 temps in the 12Z GFS are even warmer, approaching 24-25C each late afternoon. With a little downslope warming via NW flow aloft and light W-NW sfc flow temps are likely to surpass 100 in NE NJ on Wed, and over a more widespread area Thu/Fri. GEFS/EPS ensembles are in full agreement with this, showing probabilities of max temps 100 or higher at least 50-70% for NE NJ, the NYC metro area and parts of Long Island Wed-Fri, and as high as 80% on Thu. NBM 90th percentile max temps were too extreme to even consider, but blended with raw NBM guidance do suggest some room for high temps to trend a couple of degrees even hotter. With dewpoints in the lower 70s in Wed and the mid/upper 60s Thu/Fri, max heat index values are likely to be 100-105 Wed-Fri across the entire area, and as high as 110 mainly in the urban corridor on Thu. Heat index values are also unlikely to drop below 80 in NYC and immediate surrounding areas both Wed night and Thu night, making for very uncomfortable sleeping conditions and setting up for added daytime heat stress on Thu/Fri. With these values, extreme heat warnings could be needed for the urban corridor and the Hudson/CT river valleys on Wed, for virtually the entire CWA on Thu, and for urban and coastal sections on Fri.

GFS has backed off on the idea of a back door cold fropa later in the week, but not the potential for an MCS passing through in NW flow aloft next weekend. It's much too early to know if that will be the case as the ECMWF holds stronger with upper ridging across the eastern US.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday Night-Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. S wind gusts 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon and evening. Isolated shower/thunderstorm possible in the afternoon/evening.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible near the coast Wednesday afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on the non ocean waters through Thu, and through at least early Tue afternoon on the ocean. Could see some wind gusts approaching 25 kt late day Tue/Wed and seas approaching 5 ft on the ocean in a S flow.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains low through Monday with 1-2 ft swell sets with period varying between 5-10 s and onshore winds at or below 10 kt.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

July 1: KEWR: 100/1963 KBDR: 95/1963 KNYC: 100/1901 KLGA: 97/2018 KJFK: 102/1963 KISP: 96/1964

July 2: KEWR: 102/1966 KBDR: 100/1966 KNYC: 100/1966 KLGA: 101/1966 KJFK: 101/1966 KISP: 99/1966

July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 27: KEWR: 75/1999 KBDR: 73/1953 KNYC: 76/1943 KLGA: 77/1943 KJFK: 73/2003 KISP: 72/2021

July 1: KEWR: 77/2018 KBDR: 73/2013 KNYC: 79/2018 KLGA: 79/2018 KJFK: 75/1968 KISP: 73/2025

July 2: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 82/1901 KLGA: 78/2002 KJFK: 74/2018 KISP: 74/2014

July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.