textproduct: New York

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There have been no significant changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Confidence is increasing in a period of heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night, mainly for NYC and areas north and west. Isolated instances of flash flooding and strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible, particularly west of the Hudson River.

2) Dry and seasonable for the weekend ahead, with a warming trend early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Mainly zonal flow behind the late week system turns into weak ridging by late Saturday into Sunday as heights aloft rise. Any leftover shower activity from Friday should be well offshore by early Saturday morning behind the frontal passage. Skies will clear with northerly flow on Saturday, and dry conditions lasting into Sunday. Winds turn southerly on Sunday as the sfc high shifts offshore, and dewpoints climb a few degrees relative to Saturday. Otherwise near to slightly below normal temperatures both days, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heights continue to build into early next week, with increasing temperatures.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: VFR Thu AM, becoming MVFR or lower in SHRA and TSRA mid to late morning. S winds 10-15 kt G20-25 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower at times w/ SHRA and TSRA, mainly across southern CT.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR. Light winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub small craft conditions are expected through the week.

Southerly flow increases late Wednesday night into Thursday, with ocean seas getting to around 4 ft and gusts approaching 20 kt. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail with seas and winds diminishing for the weekend with a light pressure gradient with high pressure building across for the weekend.

Rip Currents:

A moderate risk of rip currents likely developing Wednesday afternoon for all beaches with building 2 ft SE swells.

A high risk of rip currents expected for Thursday afternoon for all beaches except southwest Suffolk county with building 4 ft wind waves, lingering 2 ft SE swells, and southerly flow of 15 to 20 kt. Southeast Suffolk county beaches will see a moderate risk of rip currents due to weaker winds of 10 to 15 kt.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.

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