textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry and mild through at least mid week, possibly longer.
2) Increasing likelihood for a wetting rain late in the week.
KEY MESSAGE 2
An approaching front may bring a chance of showers Thu afternoon and night from the NYC metro are north/west. Then a better chance for showers/tstms with moderate to locally heavy rain will come daytime Fri into Fri night/early Sat morning as the front stalls nearby, with one or more waves of low pressure moving along it in response to another closed low forming over the Great Lakes region and possibly phasing with srn stream energy riding along the western flank of offshore upper ridging, with moderate deep layer SW flow providing ample moisture transport. Location of axis of heavy rain somewhat in question in the deterministic model guidance, as the ECMWF places it squarely over Long Island and S CT while the GFS remains mostly offshore. Ensemble solutions suggest lesser likelihood of the offshore solution, and with PW increasing to near 1.75 inches a widespread 1-2 inch rainfall with local amts over 3 inches may be possible. These amts may be capable of causing at least minor nuisance/urban flooding, with some impact to the Fri evening commute.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
Wednesday: VFR, SW to S winds.
Thursday: VFR more likely early, with the probability of MVFR or lower higher late in the day and at night for showers with MVFR or lower cond developing.
Friday: MVFR/IFR possible w/ showers. Thunder also possible.
Saturday: Improving to VFR early.
Sunday: MVFR possible w/ showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Sub-SCA cond forecast on all waters through Sat night. That said, there is a low chance that seas on the near shore ocean waters (especially out east) may approach 5 ft at some point from Thu night into Sat as a frontal system impacts the waters, preceded by a prolonged period of S-SW flow.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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