textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The High Risk for Rip Currents has been extended through Thursday.

A Small Craft Advisory was issued for the ocean waters out 20 NM, the South Shore Bays, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the eastern LI Sound for today through tonight.

No changes to heat headlines.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Record to near record dangerous heat is expected through Friday and will likely continue on Independence Day, with little overnight relief. This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Impacts to transportation infrastructure and electrical and water systems are also possible.

2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible nearly each day through the weekend. Any thunderstorm has the potential to be strong to severe.

3) There is a high risk of rip currents through Thursday. (See marine section for discussion).

KEY MESSAGE 2

With the local region on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible nearly every afternoon/evening through at least Saturday, although there is inherent uncertainty in the day to day timing, placement, and strength of any convective activity.

Convective activity currently to the north is expected to continue to weaken given this activity heading into a less favorable environment, but a damaging wind gust can not be completely ruled out.

For later today, the SPC has the area outlined in a marginal risk, with a slight risk reaching into the Lower Hudson Valley from the north. CAMs continue to struggle, likely due to lack of significant forcing, but given impressive MLCAPE up to 3000 J/kg, anything that does develop could produce damaging winds and heavy downpours.

Confidence in coverage and location of any convective or severe activity increases for Thursday through the weekend. However, CSU MLP and CIPS guidance highlights the area each day in a potential severe risk.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.Tonight: VFR, Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the evening.

.Thursday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon and evening.

.Friday: Mainly VFR. Isolated shower or thunderstorms with MVFR in the afternoon and evening. W wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.

.Saturday-Sunday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening with MVFR or lower possible at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today through tonight for the the ocean waters out 20 NM, the South Shore Bays, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the eastern LI Sound. A strengthening S/SW flow will bring 25 to 30 kt gusts and 5 to 6 ft seas for the ocean waters. Elsewhere, 20 to 25 kt gusts are expected. Gusts lower overnight but may increase again on Thursday, mainly over the ocean.

Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions are expected with a weakening pressure gradient.

Rip Currents...

The High Risk for Rip Currents has been extended through Thursday.

Today, a S/SW flow increasing to around 20 kt combined with the resulting 5ft 5s period wave component will lead to the high risk. A similar set up is expected for Thursday with a 15 to 20 kt flow and 4-5 ft 6s swell.

RCMOS showing solid high risk for both days along with local rip current algorithms showing solid high risk for both days gave confidence to extend the high risk through Thursday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

July 1: KEWR: 102/1901 KBDR: 95/1963 KNYC: 100/1901 KLGA: 97/2018 KJFK: 102/1963 KISP: 96/1964

July 2: KEWR: 103/1901 KBDR: 100/1966 KNYC: 100/1966 KLGA: 101/1966 KJFK: 101/1966 KISP: 99/1966

July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966

July 4: KEWR: 105/1949 KBDR: 98/1949 KNYC: 102/1949 KLGA: 100/1949 KJFK: 101/2010 KISP: 97/2010

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 1: KEWR: 77/2018 KBDR: 73/2013 KNYC: 79/2018 KLGA: 79/2018 KJFK: 75/1968 KISP: 73/2025

July 2: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 82/1901 KLGA: 78/2002 KJFK: 74/2018 KISP: 74/2014

July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018

July 4: KEWR: 81/2002 KBDR: 80/2002 KNYC: 81/2002 KLGA: 82/1999 KJFK: 80/2002 KISP: 76/2002

July 5: KEWR: 81/1999 KBDR: 74/2018 KNYC: 82/1999 KLGA: 86/1999 KJFK: 80/1999 KISP: 78/1999

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-009>011. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005>012. Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM EDT Friday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.