textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure settles over the Northeast and southern Quebec through Friday, pushing offshore Friday night into Saturday. A warm front approaches Saturday night into Sunday, with a cold front moving through on Monday. Another frontal system impacts the region into mid next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.

Dry conditions with mostly clear skies are expected today as high pressure dominates. Any clouds over eastern are expected to advect east in association with an upper level shortwave that will move through, pushing off the southeast coast of New England by late this morning into the afternoon. An upper level ridge over the Great Lakes will move into western portions of the Northeast by this afternoon and this evening, remain west of our forecast area.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonably chilly, with highs in the lower to middle 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/

Tranquil weather will continue through the end of the week as high pressure remains over the Northeast into southern Quebec. The ridge axis moves over the area tonight into Friday morning. A southern stream ridge then builds in from our south on Saturday as a warm front approaches from the southeast. This will bring the next chance for precipitation late Friday night into Saturday. A number of deterministic models show the potential for some freezing rain for portions of the forecast area, so continue the mention this threat. Chances for freezing rain start off low as chances for precipitation are low to begin with late Friday night. The best chance for freezing rain would be around daybreak Saturday, mainly across northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley an inland southern CT. But even here, precipitation amounts are expected to be light, with just a few hundredths of an inch, despite chances for precipitation increasing. With such low chances and/or low precipitation amounts, held off with any mention of freezing rain in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Temperatures are expected to rise to above freezing by the late morning, changing any precipitation to plain rain everywhere by late morning. Light rain then continues for the rest of Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to slowly warm through the period, reaching seasonable levels by Friday and above normal by Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A mild, unsettled period of weather expected for much of the long term. Stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast.

A warm front near the region Saturday night will push northward across the area early Sunday. With the region in the warm sector on Sunday, expect cloudy conditions with rain chances gradually increasing as we move through the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Expect a period of rain Sunday night into Monday with the frontal passage. Can not rule out a rumble of thunder Sunday night, especially west of NYC, however confidence remains low at this time and will leave out of the forecast. It appears now that the heaviest of the rain will occur overnight and into the first half of Monday, which is slightly faster than last nights model runs. The front should move east of the CWA by Monday mid afternoon, with drier air moving into the region for Monday night.

Another frontal system is then expected for the middle part of next week, possibly impacting the area New Years eve into New Years day. With some uncertainties in the forecast models, will cap POPs at 50 percent.

Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s, then upper 40s and lower 50s Tuesday. Temperatures will remain the 40s to near 50 on Wednesday, then in the upper 30s and lower to middle 40s on Thursday. .

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Strong high pressure will remain nearly stationary across the area through the end of the week.

VFR. The only exception is at KGON where MVFR ceilings 2.5kft-3kft are likely after through around 12z.

Light N flow around 5-8 kt early this morning backs slightly to the NW by this afternoon. Outlying terminals may stay light and variable into the evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR.

Friday Night-Saturday Afternoon: MVFR possible. Low chance for light rain. Light freezing rain possible well north of the NYC metro.

Saturday Afternoon-Sunday: Rain becoming likely with MVFR/IFR conditions. Chance of LLWS. SE gusts 15-20 kt Sunday.

Monday: MVFR/IFR. Rain, mainly in the morning. SE gusts 15-20 kt in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

With high pressure over the region into the beginning of the weekend, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria.

A frontal system will move across the area waters Sunday and Monday, with SCA conditions returning Sunday night and Monday as winds increase to near 25 kt and seas build to 5-7 ft. Conditions fall below SCA levels on Tuesday, however this may be short lived as another frontal system approaches for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.