textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made with the latest forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms today for NYC and north and west. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

2) Unsettled weather expected Tuesday through Thursday due to a slow moving low pressure system. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for flash flooding, mainly Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

3) Potential for minor coastal flooding mid to late week with a coastal low.

KEY MESSAGE 3

With the approach of a full moon midweek and an onshore E/SE flow with low pressure passing close by, minor coastal flooding is a possibility. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty at this time. Latest forecast brings some of the south shore back bay locations of LI and western LI Sound to just below minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening/nighttime high tide cycles.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower in any showers and t-storms towards daybreak Tuesday.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers and chance of thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. S winds G15- 20kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower conditions likely with showers, possibly a thunderstorm. E winds G15-20kt.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible. Showers possible and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. N-NW wind G15-20kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A slow moving low pressure system will bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to the waters starting Tuesday afternoon. As of right now, conditions look marginal, with gusts peaking around 25 to 30 kt Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning and ocean seas peaking at 5 to 6 ft Tuesday night through Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty with exact low track and strength of winds.

Thereafter, the pressure gradient looks to decrease and sub SCA conditions are then expected through the weekend.

Rip Currents...

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today with a S flow peaking around 10 kt and a weak E swell at 2 ft 7s.

The moderate risk continues on Tuesday, but there is potential for a high risk late in the day. For now stuck with a moderate, but continue to monitor the forecast as a Rip Current Statement might be needed. A S/SE flow increases to 15-20 kt with a 4ft 5s S/SE swell. Both RCMOS and local guidance show borderline moderate/high risk by the afternoon.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.