textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Timing of showers on Thursday has become a bit more fine tuned, however, uncertainty still exists in total expected rainfall. QPF and PoPs have trended higher in the latest forecast update.
The WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island for Thursday.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Showers and potential thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Embedded stronger thunderstorms and heavy downpours are possible.
2) Unsettled weather this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2
The front looks to push farther offshore for Friday before additional waves of low pressure pass nearby over the weekend.
There looks to be another period of potential moderate to heavy rainfall, specifically during Saturday afternoon and evening. Once again, guidance is struggling with strength and location of the offshore wave that will form ahead of a negatively tilted upper trough. The WPC has a marginal risk for the entire area. Thunderstorm activity with this event is expected to remain mainly offshore, although isolated thunder along the coast can not be ruled out.
With the stalled front still offshore on Sunday, a cold front approaches from the west. This brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. It is too far out to talk specific details on strength of showers/thunderstorms, but it is worth noting that the latest CIPS and CSU MLP are hinting at potential isolated severe thunderstorm activity for NYC and north and west.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
Wednesday night: VFR.
Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower at times mainly during the second half of the afternoon and evening.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.
Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions currently forecast through the start of next week. There is a low chance for forecast winds and waves to trend higher depending on location and strength of a wave of low pressure on Thursday evening.
Rip Currents: With winds forecast to be less than 10 kt currently for today and Thursday, and a weakening swell, there is a low risk of rip currents.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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