textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes were made.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Mainly dry and mild through Saturday.
2. Potential fire weather concerns Saturday.
3. Much warmer weather is likely next week.
KEY MESSAGE 3
The models are in good agreement with a substantial warmup for next week. H85 temps increase abv 10C, and with a general wly flow, all areas should warm up pretty good, even the coasts. Sea breezes will likely still kick in late in the day, but there are some periods where the flow aloft may be strong enough to hold it off for all but the immediate shore. Stuck with the NBM, but these numbers may be too low based on the flow. The AI-GFS stands out with 17-18C at H85 on Wed which would be widespread 80s with a few spots touching 90.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Friday: VFR. SSW gusts up to 20 kt.
Friday Night: Potential for MVFR or lower in rain showers. Highest chances north and west of NYC terminals.
Saturday: VFR. NW gust 20 to 25 kt possible.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: VFR. SW gusts to 30 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
A strengthening southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front on Friday and a building easterly swell could bring seas on the ocean to around 5 ft by Friday evening. Wind gusts look to fall short of SCA criteria due to a strong inversion over the waters, mainly around 20 kt. NW flow behind the cold front on Saturday should also stay below 25 kt, however, gusts right near the land will be close. Confidence is low enough at this time to not issue a SCA. High pressure builds across the waters Saturday night into Sunday.
A strengthening SW flow may produce SCA conditions Mon, especially on the ocean. Thereafter, winds and seas will hover near SCA lvls on the ocean, with winds generally blw SCA lvls elsewhere. Speeds could approach SCA lvls each day at the South Shore Bays and entrance to the Harbor due to sea breeze enhancement.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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