textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A winter storm pulls away early this morning. High pressure then briefly returns before a strong frontal system impacts the area late Sunday through Monday. The region will then remain between high pressure to the southwest and strong low pressure over southeast Canada Tuesday into Wednesday. A clipper low may track nearby next Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Messages: * Snow continues tapering off to flurries early this morning.

* All winter storm warnings have been cancelled.

* Clearing skies and seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the day.

* Black ice concerns overnight into early Sunday with refreezing of any slush and/or untreated road surfaces with low temperatures in the teens and lower 20s.

Snow continues to diminish early this morning. Portions of Long Island and southern parts of the NYC metro are still seeing some light snow, but overall the trend will be down through the next few hours. Little to no additional accumulation is expected. Issued an SPS to account for lingering hazardous travel this morning.

Clearing does start to take place late in the day from the north. With the fresh snowpack, temperatures likely struggle to rise above freezing on Saturday. Temperatures Saturday night drop into the teens under clear skies and light winds, introducing the potential for black ice development on area roadways, bridges, and any untreated surfaces.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A strong frontal system begins to impact the area late Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures will be below freezing in the interior prior to a warm front passing, with a cold air damming signature as the interior sits on the eastern side of a sfc high. A warm front approaches from the west by Sunday afternoon and a period of freezing rain/drizzle looks more probable for interior parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT, in particular. Ice accretions at this point look light less than about 0.1" across those areas. As the front approaches, temperatures warm up enough to see a transition to all rain. There is still some variablity around just how much of this ice could accumulate before temperatures rise above freezing. Most of the the CWA will start and remain rain Sunday evening into early Monday, with about 0.25" - 0.50" of precipitation expected.

Gusty winds develop behind the cold front late Monday through Tuesday, with potential of gusts approaching or exceeding 35-40 mph under deep NW flow.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Messages:

* Mild temperatures on Monday (Upper 40s to lower 50s) will trend much colder for the rest of the week with highs in the lower to mid 30s, potentially not rising above freezing on Tuesday and then again at the end of the week.

The larger scale pattern after the cold front passage favors upper troughing over the eastern US which will help keep colder air in place to start 2026. Dry conditions are currently forecast. There is a chance of a clipper system passing sometime late week, but the latest model consensus keeps conditions dry at this time.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: VFR during the day. IFR and rain at night, possibly starting as a wintry mix north of the city terminals in the evening.

Monday: IFR with rain/showers, Improving to VFR late day/early evening. SW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-30kt.

Wednesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA conditions return on ocean waters as seas reach 5 ft under a gusty 25 kt flow early this morning. Conditions then fall below SCA- levels by the evening. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected Saturday night through Sunday night.

SCA conditions are likely on Monday on all waters ahead of a cold front passage. Gales are becoming increasingly likely on all waters Monday night through Tuesday night. Conditions begin to improve into midweek, but SCA conditions may linger through much of the week.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected through mid next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.