textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No meaningful changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A series of cold fronts arrives Wednesday into Thursday eventually bringing a return to seasonably cold conditions later this week.

2) Chance of snow Thursday through Friday, potentially accumulating. Low confidence forecast so details are quite uncertain.

3) A low chance of snow for the weekend. Again, low confidence forecast with details being quite uncertain.

KEY MESSAGE 3

This key message is for the time period of the weekend and is when the next chance for precipitation will occur, again most of it in the form of snow. POPs mostly near 20 to 30 percent.

Aloft another trough deepens and moves in but more model differences with this as well as surface lows. The model variability is greater in this timeframe with respect to the positions of surface low pressure. POPs are closer to 20 to 30 percent, but again presents more snow potential for the region with ambient temperatures and wet bulb cooling.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 15 kt.

Wednesday: Chance of rain showers. MVFR or lower at times. SW wind gusts near 15 kt early, subsiding.

Thursday: Chance of rain initially, becoming more snow. MVFR to IFR at times. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt developing in afternoon and continuing at night.

Friday: Chance of snow early, tapering off in the afternoon. MVFR to IFR early, otherwise VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small craft conditions will persist through today. Towards late in the day most of the non-ocean waters will likely begin to fall below advisory criteria, with the central and eastern ocean likely continuing with small craft conditions through the evening. The western ocean waters should fall below small craft criteria during the first half of this evening, with the central and eastern ocean likely falling below criteria late tonight. Sub advisory conditions are expected during Tuesday, although a SW flow increases later in the day. Small craft conditions are likely to return for the ocean waters, and possibly the south shore bays and far eastern portions of LI Sound Tuesday night. Small craft seas may linger out on the eastern ocean waters during a portion of Wednesday, otherwise sub advisory conditions should prevail late in the day and into Wednesday night.

SCA becomes more probable late Thursday into Friday. SCA conditions lingers into Friday night for the ocean.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331- 335-338-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ332- 345-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353.