textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Gale Warning has been expanded on the ocean. The Small Craft Advisory has also been expanded to include eastern portions of the Sound and the back bays.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A noreaster is expected to remain south and east of the region thru the week. Some coastal impacts remain possible.

KEY MESSAGE 1

Low pres was evident on water vapor east of Cape Hatteras this morning. This low is modeled to gradually deepen thru the week, and only slowly take a general northeast track thru the period.

The latest model trends and consensus keep the impacts to the local area low. The NBM now has mainly dry weather thru the week, with only 20-30 percent chances for light rain across ern LI and extreme sern CT, focused on the late Wed and Wed night period. If the overall model trend continue, would not be surprised to see these numbers come in even lower.

With a 1030s high building across ern Canada and the low offshore, northeast winds will continue all week. The breeziest conditions look to be in the Tue-Wed period attm. The latest data suggests peak gusts in the 30s, with the coasts windiest.

Astronomical tides remain low this week, but the persistent NE flow should start bringing a rise in tide levels through mid week. Persistent swells from the offshore system may also aide in tidal piling and potentially some minor beach erosion.

The tide cycles of concern for any coastal flooding are on Wednesday and potentially into Thursday with the Wednesday evening high tide having the highest potential at this time. The main areas of concern are across the south shore back bays and portions of the Great South Bay. Mainly minor coastal flooding looks possible for these locations and coastal flood advisories may eventually be needed. Elsewhere, water levels currently look to remain below minor coastal flooding benchmarks.

The modeling points to a strong upr trof dropping out of Canada late Fri or early Sat, forcing the low further out to sea. The GFS suggests a roughly 1040 high building into the region over the weekend. This would put an end to the storm's influence over the region.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday: VFR. N-NE wind G15-25 kt, highest near the coast.

Wednesday: VFR. N-NE winds G20-30 kt, highest near the coast. Thursday-Friday: VFR. N winds G15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas will begin building today as low pres over the Atlc gradually intensifies. A SCA remains in effect for the nearshore ocean waters.

Gales go up tonight on the outer ocean, with the SCA expanding to ANZ332 as swell gets into the Sound. The gales and SCA expand further on Tue, lasting thru Tue night for now. No headlines are up for Wed-Fri yet due to the extended timeframe and inherent model uncertainty, although seas on the ocean can be expected to remain abv 5ft thru the period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068. NJ...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ332. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350. Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ380-383-385.