textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the ocean waters from late tonight/Friday through Friday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather through Friday with an upper level low moving over the area through the period.

2) Summer-like warmth builds this weekend into the start of next week. Cold water safety concerns for this weekend with good boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Mainly zonal flow is anticipated aloft Saturday into a part of Sunday with surface high pressure positioned to the south through the weekend.

Saturday will see a good climb in temperatures under sunny skies with highs in the mid 70s on LI and S CT, upper-70s in the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC metro, and low 80s in NE NJ.

Saturday night into Sunday, many global models are resolving a weak shortwave to pass through New England. This many lead to a period of increased cloud cover and possibly a few light showers.

This will clear up early on Sunday. Then, with the shortwave passing to the east, upper-level ridging will begin. 500mb heights will go from 576-578dam to 586-588dam by Tuesday, remaining 15-20 dam above normal through at least Wednesday.

With ridging, temperatures will also climb. Highs on Sunday will be in the 80s most everywhere, except at the immediate coast. Monday may be a little moderated at the coast on Long Island and S CT with highs only into the mid to upper 70s here due to a more SE flow off the ocean. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days with highs in the 80s across LI and S CT, while the shore of LI and and interior S CT may reach the low-90s. Low to mid 90s is anticipated elsewhere including NYC metro, NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley.

Dewpoints through the weekend into Monday look to stay in the low to mid 50s, possibly nearing 60 Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall, this means the warmth will be on the comfortable side with heat indices less of a concern.

Additionally, there are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A Marine Weather Statement will likely be issued at the end of this week.

Global model guidance on Wednesday, day 7, appear to be hinting at a break down of the upper-level ridge in response to a closed upper- low traversing through Canada. Precip looks possible with this, as well, but details remain fuzzy this far out.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday Afternoon-Night: Lingering MVFR possible eastern LI and southeast CT. Isolated shower possible.

Saturday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon and early evening.

Sunday-Moday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Low pressure deepening over the western Atlantic tonight and heading up into the Canadian Maritimes Friday, will produce a building easterly swell across the ocean waters tonight into Friday night. A SCA for hazardous seas has been issued for all ocean waters, starting with Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point late tonight, then westward, with Sandy Hook to Fire Island starting at 11 am Friday morning. Seas diminish overnight Friday, with sub SCA conditions returning by late Friday night into Saturday morning. The SCA goes through Friday night for all ocean waters.

Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated to remain Sunday night through Monday night. Tue into Tue night, seas on ocean waters may climb to 5 ft.

There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A Marine Weather Statement will likely be issued at the end of this week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355.