textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a few showers this evening, dry weather will prevail through through the end of the work week.

2) Unsettled weather is possible for at least a portion of the weekend as an area of low pressure passes well offshore.

3) A warming trend early next week may be accompanied by unsettled conditions next Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Temps on Mon will still be up to a few degrees below average as high pressure to the S slides farther offshore. After a warm frontal passage late Mon night with slight chance of showers NW of NYC, temps Tue-Wed should increase to 5-10 degrees above normal inland with highs well into the 70s, and a couple of degrees above normal toward the coast with highs in the 60s to near 70.

An approaching weak cold front may bring a chance of showers to areas NW of NYC Tue night/Wed morning, then more widespread shower coverage expected Wed night-Thu, with PoP increasing to likely. Tstms may also be possible Thu afternoon/early evening as a stronger cold front approaches from the west in response to upper trough amplification over the Midwest/Great Lakes, and a strengthening sfc low passing well NW. Temps on Thu will not be quite as warm but should still be a few degrees above normal, with highs in the 60s to near 70. QPF Wed-Thu ranges from about 0.75 inch west to 1.00-1.50 inch east. At this extended time range it's much too early to speculate on possible hydrologic impacts other than nuisance ponding in low lying and poor drainage area.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday Night - Saturday Night: Chance of MVFR w/ -RA possible at times. Light flow.

Sunday: VFR with NW flow.

Monday: VFR with SW flow.

Tuesday: VFR with strong S flow. MVFR or lower possible aft 00Z.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Conditions should remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday as low pressure passes well south and east.

The pressure gradient tightens and S winds increase early next week. An extended period of SCA conditions is likely on the ocean from Mon afternoon into Wed, with sustained winds 20-25 kt and seas above 5 ft, building as high as 6-8 ft Mon night-Tue. As the sea breeze develops each afternoon/early evening, SCA conditions with gusts to 25 kt may also be possible on the Long Island south shore bays, NY Harbor, and the western/central Sound. A few gusts just shy of gale force may also occur with the Ambrose jet on the ocean from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet late day Tue and Wed.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.