textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Special Weather Statement issued for potential icy conditions developing across parts of the interior tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of rain tonight could lead to nuisance flooding, especially in areas of poor drainage.

2) Localized icy conditions may develop on some untreated surfaces across parts of interior S CT and the LoHud Valley tonight into Friday morning.

3) Showers possible Saturday night with above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Showers may accompany the cold front passage Saturday night. The NBM continues to indicate likely PoPs for this time frame, but this may be overdone given the most organized lift is expected to pass to well to our NW and the approaching upper level shortwaves deamplifies. Showers may end up more scattered overall with generally light rainfall amounts.

A warming trend will begin this weekend, especially Sunday (despite the passage of a cold front Saturday night), and continue through the middle of next week. On Sunday, decreasing clouds and lack of cold air behind the front will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 60s in NYC and NE NJ. Upper 50 to around 60 are expected in the Lower Hudson Valley and inland S CT. Upper 40s to middle 50s are expected along coastal areas thanks to the cold ocean and sound waters. Guidance may be warming temperatures a bit too quickly given there is not a strong push of SW flow until late in the day and evening.

A more persistent SW flow regime sets up early next week with a high pressure ridge intensifying to the southeast, almost like a Bermuda high type setup. This SW flow will allow for warmer air to move into the area resulting in a warming trend through at least the middle of next week. Monday will largely be the 60s, especially away from the coast. If the current forecast high of 64 at Central Park on Sunday verifies, it would be the first 60 degree temperature or higher since November 9, 2025. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures west of the NYC metro may climb into the upper 60s and low 70s. Coastal areas and Long Island likely remain in the 50s with the cold water moderating the airmass. If there is more of a westerly component to the wind direction, warmer air could push further east until the occurrence of afternoon sea breezes.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday afternoon - Friday night: MVFR becoming IFR with a chance of rain Friday night.

Saturday: IFR, MVFR possible at times especially at night with rain showers at night. SW wind gusts 15 -20 kt at night.

Sunday: MVFR possible early, then VFR.

Monday - Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Increasing E flow into this evening will lead to winds near 25 kt on the ocean, back bays, and LI Sound E of the CT River. Small Craft Advisory goes into effect on these waters at 6pm this evening. The winds lighten Friday morning, but ocean seas remain elevated into at least the afternoon. Seas may remain elevated Friday night east of Moriches Inlet and the SCA may need to be extended in subsequent updates.

SCA conditions will become likely on the ocean Saturday afternoon and night ahead of a cold frontal passage with wind gusts near 25kt and seas 5-7 feet. Seas may be slow to subside on Sunday, but sub- SCA conditions on all waters are expected by Sunday night through Monday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.