textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated risk of fire spread across much of the region on Monday, and further west across the area on Tuesday.

2) Moderating temps today, even warmer Tuesday with temps rising to 10 to 15 degrees above seasonable.

3) A strong frontal system will bring rain Wednesday and Wednesday night, with latest model trends showing less rain overall now on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The chances for rain increase across western portions of the area later Tuesday night as a strong cold front starts to approach from the west. A steady rainfall is progged by NWP and the AI global guidance. With the low level flow becoming more southerly right ahead of the cold front look for the lower portion of the atmosphere to stabilize, and thus should limit any convective potential. There may be enough instability above the boundary layer that a rumble or two of thunder cannot be completely ruled out, but overall expect essentially a beneficial moderate rainfall region wide. QPF event totals have decreased some as NWP guidance appears to be progressing the frontal boundary a bit faster to the east Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thus, the bulk of the rain takes place Wednesday afternoon and evening. There remains a chance of rain / showers into the day Thursday, but PoPs have lowered, especially for further west across the area. A second wave of low pressure is expected to develop to the south, but NWP and AI consensus is further to the south and east with this trailing disturbance. Thus any rain on Thursday should be lighter in nature with clouds expected to linger into Thursday evening, with skies now expected to clear later Thursday night into Friday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. SW wind gusts near 20-30 kt. Occasional peak gusts to 35 kt possible in afternoon. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm north and west of NYC terminals late in the day into early eve. Higher chance of showers north and west of NYC terminals late at night.

Wednesday: Rain with MVFR or lower at times. SW wind gusts mainly around 20 kt. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt decreasing to 15-20 kt at night.

Thursday: Showers, eventually tapering off late at night. MVFR or lower at times. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon into early eve near NYC terminals.

Friday: Mainly VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20 kt, diminishing at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Marginal SW SCA winds develop on all waters for the first half of today, with developing small craft seas on the ocean waters with combo of 2 ft E and SE swells and building S wind waves. These conditions should prevail for the most part tonight, and pick up a more into Tuesday with ocean seas increasing further. A period of gale force wind gusts are possible very late in the day Tuesday into the first half of Tuesday night for the ocean and the eastern and southern bays of LI. Therefore small craft and marginal gale conditions are expected Tuesday night, and may very well carry into the day Wednesday.

The cold front passes through Wednesday night with sub advisory conditions ending from west to east for the non-ocean waters. However, seas should remain elevated on the ocean and may extend small craft conditions for portions of the ocean into early Thursday morning. Sub advisory conditions should prevail for Thursday afternoon into the first half of Thursday night. Sub advisory conditions may be short lived, as small craft conditions may return on Friday on a NW to W wind.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 335-338-340. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.