textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Coldest air of the season to arrive tonight into Tuesday. Wind chill values overnight will fall into the single digits to just below zero.

2.) Another shot of cold air for the end of the week into the weekend.

3.) Potential for snow late Saturday into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Will continue to keep an eye on a southern stream sys passing to the south this weekend, as models are likely suppressing it too far south via too strong of a polar jet/mid level confluence zone from New England over to Nova Scotia, to the rear of a 50/50 closed low. Deterministic 12Z GFS is dry and 00Z ECMWF gives only a glancing blow with some light snow. Their ensemble means are a little less suppressed, and the ECMWF AIFS and AI- GFS even less so. So forecast carries a chance of snow from Sat night into Sunday night, though it is still way too early to get into specifics.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late Tonight: VFR. W winds 5-10 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. SW-S winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: A period of MVFR or lower possible with a band of rain or snow.

Friday: VFR with W winds becoming NW G25-35kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible depending on the track, timing, and intensity of possible low pres.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A strengthening W flow will produce SCA conditions across all waters into Tuesday, persisting on the ocean through the early morning hours Wednesday. A few gale force gusts on the ocean waters cannot be ruled out the first half of tonight. Seas on the ocean are expected to build as high as 5 to 10 ft tonight, highest east of Moriches Inlet due to the westerly fetch. Waves on the sound will get up to 3 to 5 ft, possibly 6 ft across eastern portions. Winds and seas will begin to gradually subside.

Some freezing spray is possible from late tonight into Tue night.

A brief lull Wednesday morning will be replaced by a strengthening SW flow in the afternoon with the potential for gale force gusts by nightfall on the ocean waters.

SCA cond expected on the ocean Thu into Fri morning ahead of and behind a cold frontal passage, with SW-W flow gusting to 25 kt and seas 5-7 ft. An Arctic cold fropa Fri afternoon should then bring SCA cond to all waters Fri afternoon/night, with NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt on the ocean, and seas 5-6 ft.

SCA cond should continue on the ocean Sat into Sat night, with NW-N flow gusting to 25-30 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt may also be possible on the non ocean waters as well Sat night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.