textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Weather Advisories now in effect tonight for the Lower Hudson Valley and portions of southern CT.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A quick moving frontal system will impact the region late this afternoon and tonight. A wintry mix is likely across interior portions of the area, with plain rain expected closer to the coast.

2) There is a chance for rain and/or snow in the Sun-Mon period, although there is a high amount of uncertainty.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A deep Pacific trof is expected to spawn low pres E of the Rockies by Sat, then track it across the Southeast and offshore by Mon, potentially passing close enough to impact the local area. The modeling has been consistent with the general idea of the storm, but there remains a high amount of uncertainty with the details.

Most of the data suggests a W to E, or SW to NE type track, not making a big hook up the coast. The arctic air thus far looks limited, so this could be a sys with a lot of mixed pcpn and rain, with a decent freezing rain threat inland if the low tracks to the S and the flow remains backed at the sfc. Too far out to have confidence in the details, and with the AIGFS consistently S of the area, it could end up being just a glancing blow or nothing at all. Still, with the multi-model support, the NBM is producing a 55-65 pop for the event. Stuck with the NBM for the fcst, but of all the fields the temps in particular may be much too high for the event if the flow remains backed and CAD occurs.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR possible with precipitation ending around 06Z. Improving to VFR with a cold frontal passage.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25kt.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub advisory conditions expected on all the waters today as high pressure remains near the area waters. A frontal system will move across the area waters tonight and in its wake, winds will and seas will increase on Wednesday back to SCA levels on the ocean. The SCA conditions will continue through Thursday. For the non-ocean waters, it, SCA conditions will be likely on Wednesday, and diminish Wednesday night.

Diminishing winds on Thursday night should allow ocean waters to fall below sca levels. Winds and seas should them remain below SCA level through Saturday. Another chance for SCA conditions return for the second half of the weekend as low pressure could impact the waters.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>007-009>011. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ067>071. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to midnight EST Wednesday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.