textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 12Z Aviation.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Patchy dense fog possible this morning.

2. A cold front moves through today bringing a period of rainfall perhaps with some thunder. Dry conditions then follow for much of the week.

3. Temperatures warm to near seasonable levels Thursday, followed by an increasing probability of above normal temperatures for later in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Behind the cold frontal passage today, temperatures will remain generally below average through the middle of the week, generally reaching their coldest on Wednesday with highs only in the middle to upper 40s.

THe high moves offshore Wednesday night into Thursday allowing for a more moderate airmass to advect into the area toward the end of the week. Temperature uncertainty increases Thursday, mainly due to uncertainty around the sfc wind direction. With water temperatures still quite cold a more southerly or easterly component to the wind as opposed to a more westerly component will have a big effect on temperatures. Also, 5 kft temperatures really don't warm significantly until Friday into Saturday. Thus, have stayed with the NBM temperature guidance through Thursday night. However, with a cold front that likely washes out with rising heights just upstream look for the potential for noticeably warmer temperatures than consensus guidance is currently indicating for Friday, and on Saturday as well. For now staying close to the NBM, but there is a higher than average chance for adjustments going forward in time.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: VFR. W-NW winds with gusts around 25kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Low chance MVFR or lower possible in any showers. W winds around 10 kt with G15-20 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. N winds becoming NE at 10 kt or less.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for all of the waters through noon for fog dropping visibilities to 1 NM or less.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean along with much of the non-ocean waters through this afternoon, with the exception of NY Harbor and the W LIS.

Waves on the ocean will remain above 5 ft and southwest winds will then ramp up later this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusts up to 30 kt will be possible on the waters where a SCA is in effect. A strong inversion over the waters is expected to keep gusts below gale force, though an occasional gale-force gusts can't be ruled out. Winds will then diminish in the late afternoon, becoming westerly in the evening. SCA seas are likely linger on the ocean for much of tonight.

Marginal small craft conditions are possible in NW flow Tuesday, possibly lingering on the eastern ocean waters Tuesday night. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail for mid week during Wednesday into Thursday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ331-332-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.