textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Polar high pressure will be in control through Monday, with a weak clipper system moving through tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure retreats Monday with a weak disturbance and frontal boundary riding north of the area. The front will remain nearby and likely north of the area into mid week. Weak high pressure should briefly build Wednesday night into Thursday. Low pressure tracks west of the region Thursday night into Friday and drags a warm front through late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

After a mainly skc sunrise, mid and high clouds will increase and thicken this aftn with the cwa between an approaching clipper and developing offshore low pres. It will remain dry though, but cold with highs blw freezing. Winds will decrease thru the day, so wind chills will rise out of the single digits and teens this mrng into the 20s this aftn. No significant deviations from the NBM.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/

Key Point:

* A weak clipper system will likely bring a dusting of snow to portions of the area tngt.

The clipper passes thru late tngt and should produce some light snow and flurries. The NAM and GFS have little to no QPF, but have leaned on the AI-GFS for this event which seems to be a better fit for the conceptual model. Despite the bumping up of pops and snow from the NBM, moisture is extremely limited, so again only flurries or a light dusting is expected.

The snow passes offshore Sun mrng, allowing for some decreasing clouds by aftn. NW winds will increase late, and temps will stay blw freezing for most spots.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Points:

* Some areas of light freezing rain possible Tuesday night.

* Moderating temperatures mid to late week.

A few weak systems are expected next week. The first will be capable of producing a little light snow late Mon and Mon ngt as the Pacific jet reaches the region. Timing right now is the eve and overnight, and the NBM may need to catch up to the 00Z deterministic models both with pops and timing.

The next sys is warmer late Tue and Tue ngt. With warming temps aloft the prev inclusion of -fzra is appropriate and has been retained in the fcst for Tue ngt. The pcpn ends as rain on Wed, but the overall amount of rain/fzra should be low.

More rain is possible for the end of the week into next weekend with a stronger frontal sys and deeper moisture.

The NBM was generally followed for the Long Term.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Late Saturday night: Chance of light snow and MVFR.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in light rain late day and nighttime along with a chance of -FZRA at KSWF.

Wednesday: VFR, with a slight chance of MVFR or lower in light rain in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-advisory conditions on all waters into Sunday mrng with a weak pressure gradient.

SCA conds likely Sun eve in wake of clipper system on the ocean waters, with occasional gusts on nearshore waters.

Sub small craft conditions will prevail for the first half of next week. Later in the mid week period, towards late Wednesday and Wednesday night small craft conditions may develop on the ocean waters.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Potential for brief and localized minor coastal flooding for the typically vulnerable south shore bays of NYC and Nassau County for the Sun AM high tide, in response to elevated astrotides from a Sat AM full moon.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.