textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Freeze Watch for Nassau tonight has been cancelled.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A colder air mass settles in, with near freezing temperatures inland early this morning with areas of frost, and sub-freezing temperatures for much of the area outside NYC and the nearby suburbs tonight.

2) Milder weather returns mid to late week, before turning more unsettled into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The cooler regime is short-lived as the upper trough exits offshore and ridging attempts to build in from the Midwest.

Afternoon temperatures Wednesday jump 5 to 10 degrees from the previous day for most, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s, though remaining a bit cooler across SE CT. Thursday is likely the mildest day of the week, downsloping off NW flow helping temps get into the upper 60s to low 70s from NYC and points north and west, with low to mid 60s along the coast. Temperatures then begin to gradually cool down late week, though not as cold as earlier in the week.

Still a bit early for the fine details, but pattern appears to turn more unsettled into the weekend. Decreasing forecast confidence in this period with diverging solutions in guidance. Shortwave energy looks to drop down along the eastern side of the ridge, helping carve out an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes. This should block further advancement of the ridge and help break it down, with a nearby frontal boundary likely serving as focus for showers at times. Placement and timing of these features, as well as any frontal waves, will determine exact impacts and extent of unsettledness, but doesn't appear to be a washout. Will continue to carry chances for rain through the weekend and into early next week, with a bit cooler conditions.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Late Monday night: VFR. NNW winds under 10 kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers in the morning.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas remain below advisory levels today through Friday night.

CLIMATE

Daily record low temperatures for Tue Apr 21:

KEWR: 31/1981 KBDR: 29/1956 KNYC: 26/1875 KLGA: 33/1956 KJFK: 34/1956 KISP: 30/1965

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ009>012. NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>071-078>081. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ069>071- 078>081. NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-103>108. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002-004-103- 104. MARINE...None.