textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the ocean waters and Long Island south shore bays late tonight into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Freeze warning remains in effect for into early this morning for most areas outside of NYC and immediate eastern/western suburbs.

2) A frontal system brings light rain late tonight into Wednesday, with milder weather returning mid to late week.

3) Conditions look potentially unsettled over the weekend, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Not much change for the weekend from the earlier forecast. Upper air pattern heading into the weekend will a feature a weakening upper ridge just west of the area, sandwiched between an upper low over the Northern Plains and another east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, a surface high builds over the area on Friday, following what appears to be a back door cold front. A warm front associated with the western system then moves nearby on Saturday. This results in a strengthening boundary in close proximity to the area. This will be a key player in determining the coverage and extent of rain this weekend.

The 00z operational global models still indicate that the surface ridge could be strong enough to keep eastern areas, in particular eastern Long Island and southeast CT on the drier side, with higher probabilities of rain back toward NYC and northern NJ. The latest ECMWF has trended just a bit drier for the area, but still one of the wetter solutions. Either way, it looks like there will be a tight gradient somewhere close to the area, going from rain to no rain. Also, there is decent agreement in a persistent easterly flow which will keep high temperatures in the 50s both days, especially for eastern and coastal areas. Using the NBM, this results in cloudy conditions with a chance of rain everywhere Saturday and likely Pops for NYC north and west, but decreasing on Sunday as a frontal wave and boundary get suppressed to the south by strengthening high pressure.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers, improving later in the day and at night with VFR returning. Some southerly wind gusts near 15-20 kt early.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower late at night with a chance of showers.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

With the approach of a frontal system late tonight into Wednesday southerly gusts will be marginally at SCA levels across the western ocean waters, west of Moriches Inlet, and Long Island south shore bays by late tonight through Wednesday and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. East of Moriches Inlet and the Long Island eastern bays and eastern Long Island Sound may see gusts approaching 25 kt by mid to late Wednesday afternoon, and a SCA may be needed there. Mixing may be be limited tonight into Wednesday with warmer air moving into the region along with showers. After the passage of the frontal system winds and seas will be below SCA levels on the waters Wednesday night through Saturday night.

CLIMATE

Daily record low temperatures for Tue Apr 21:

KEWR: 31/1981 KBDR: 29/1956 KNYC: 26/1875 KLGA: 33/1956 KJFK: 34/1956 KISP: 30/1965

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>012. NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>071- 078>081. NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002-004- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ345-353. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.