textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure shifts farther out to sea tonight. Weak low pressure then approaches from the south Monday ahead of a fast moving cold front passage occurring Monday night. High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday. A quick passing low moves through Wednesday night into Thursday followed by high pressure again for Friday. Another low may impact the area Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Lowered temperatures as calm winds and good radiational cooling have commenced. For example, KMGJ in Orange county dropped 13 degrees in an hour earlier tonight as winds slacked. Locations on eastern Long Island have also cooled already into the lower 40s. A cirrus deck advecting from the southwest along with increasing southerly flow and rising dewpoints should act to temper the cooling a bit over the next couple of hours. Previous discussion follows.

Surface and upper ridges shift farther east out to sea tonight. Light south to southwest winds for coastal areas, with much of the inland locations decoupling with winds going calm. The amount of radiational cooling and potential frost formation could however be hampered for a period tonight by a broken deck of cirrus progged to pass through. Will keep patchy frost in the forecast for some of the interior as there could be enough time towards daybreak for the clouds to thin out and be less of a mitigating factor.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Weak low pressure emerges off the Carolina coast early on Monday and heads NE through the day. An inverted trough extends north toward the forecast area, acting as a focus for moisture convergence. Meanwhile, upper troughing extending south from Canada helps push a cold front through the Great Lakes Region with the front crossing the local area in the evening. There will be a brief period of subsidence created by the two systems. Showers will still be possible from late morning through early evening with lift from their respective mid level shortwaves combined with an approaching left exit region of a strong upper jet streak from the northern stream system. Models continue with the trend of a wetter scenario, so have introduced likely PoPs for eastern LI an SE CT. Highest overall chances of rain would be in the afternoon to early evening.

High pressure then builds in from the west with a stronger pressure gradient over the region. Dry and turning breezy overnight Monday into Tuesday with WNW gusts 20-30 mph. Winds diminish Tuesday night with the surface ridge shifting in. NBM temps were closely followed in the short term. Seasonable temps are in the forecast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A very progressive pattern sets up in the long term with a series of high and low pressure systems passing through Wednesday into next weekend.

High pressure remains over the area on Wednesday morning with an area of low pressure developing to the NW that slides north of the area by Wednesday night. Much of the day Wednesday is expected to be dry with increasing chances for showers toward evening and into Wednesday night.

The low quickly moves through by Thursday morning with another day of gusty NW flow expected as high pressure builds in once again from the west. High pressure settles over the area late Thursday night and into Friday morning with once again another low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes region. The low pushes a cold front through the area with a chance of showers Friday night into Saturday. Another pair of successive high and low pressure systems may impact the area Saturday and Sunday respectively.

Regarding temperatures, highs each day Wednesday through Sunday will be fairly seasonable with temperatures generally in the upper 50s to possibly lower 60s. The coolest days will be Thursday and Sunday with gusty NW flow advecting in cooler air where the highs are expected to be in the lower to middle 50s. Lows follow a similar pattern with temperatures each night being in the mid to upper 30s inland to the upper 40s along the coast. The exception is Thursday night where cooler temperatures across the area will mean lows in the 30s for much of the area, to near 40 along the coast.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Afternoon: Rain possible with a low chance of MVFR conditions, especially east of the NYC metro terminals.

Monday Night-Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt Monday night and G25-30 kt on Tuesday.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance of showers at night SW-S winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon, becoming W G15-25 kt at night.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt possible.

Friday: VFR. SW-S winds G15-20kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Monday. Increasing winds ahead of a cold front passage should bring the next chance of SCA conditions Monday night. SCA conditions then continue on Tuesday and an advisory will now be in effect accordingly. Gusts 25-30kt expected during this time, and may get even close to gale force on the ocean late at night into Tuesday morning. 5-7ft waves here as well during this time. Winds then diminish Tuesday night with conditions falling below advisory thresholds by late.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters through Wednesday morning, but winds and waves increase once again to above SCA criteria on the ocean by Wednesday afternoon. All other waters may see SCA conditions with gusts near 25 kt by Wednesday night. These conditions persist for all waters through at least Thursday afternoon. It's also possible that the ocean sees gale conditions with gusts 35-40kt late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. A brief period of calm conditions may overspread the area by Thursday night, but SCA conditions quickly return by Friday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

There are no hydrologic concerns through this week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.