textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated risk of fire spread across most of the area today.

2) Warm away from the immediate coast today with above average temperatures, more seasonable for the remainder of the week.

3) A frontal system brings rain Wednesday and Wednesday night, with more recent model runs trending drier with lower probabilities of rain on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The chances for rain increase across western portions of the area very late tonight into Wednesday morning as a fairly strong cold front approaches from the west. Latest NWP and AI guidance is putting out about a half inch of rain on average across the region. With the low level flow becoming more southerly right ahead of the cold front look for the lower portion of the atmosphere to stabilize, and this should limit any convective potential. There may be enough instability above the boundary layer that may result in a rumble or two of thunder, but overall not expecting any surface based or significant convection. Essentially the area will receive a beneficial rainfall. QPF totals have decreased some over time as NWP guidance appears to be progressing the frontal boundary a bit faster now to the east Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thus, the bulk of the rain takes place Wednesday afternoon and evening. There remains a chance of rain / showers into the day Thursday, but PoPs have gradually lowered over time, especially further west across the area. A second wave of low pressure is expected to develop to the south, but NWP and AI consensus has trended further to the south and east with this feature. Thus any rain on Thursday should be lighter in nature and likely further east with clouds expected to linger into Thursday evening. Skies are now expected to clear later Thursday night into Friday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Night: Slight chance of a shower NW of NYC metro. MVFR or lower ceilings possible. SW gusts 20-25 kt possible, mainly near the coast.

Wednesday-Wednesday Night: Showers with MVFR or lower. Slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt, mainly during the daytime.

Thursday: Chance of showers and MVFR or lower.

Friday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20 kt, diminishing at night.

Saturday: Chance of showers and MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small craft conditions prevail across all waters by late morning and more or less continue through the day Wednesday. There may be a brief lull in advisory level conditions across the western most non- ocean waters late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Otherwise expect advisory level conditions until at least Wednesday night with some eastern non-ocean waters having occasional gusts of 30 to 35 kt. Sub advisory conditions are expected to return from west to easter later Wednesday night into Thursday. Thereafter sub advisory conditions should persist through Friday night, followed by at least marginal small craft conditions towards Saturday afternoon on a southerly flow regime.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT Wednesday night for ANZ331-332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for ANZ350-353-355.