textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes. Updated for aviation.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frigid conditions continue through Saturday. A Cold Weather Advisory is in place area-wide overnight. Another Cold Weather Advisory is possible Friday.

2) A strong storm over the western Atlantic passes well offshore Sunday. Probabilities for accumulating snow continue decreasing on Sunday with the highest chance across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut.

3) Strong, gusty winds and minor coastal flooding/minor shoreline impacts remain possible on Sunday due to the offshore storm system.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The western Atlantic storm system is progged to deepen rapidly this weekend. Models are converging on the low passing well offshore, but there will still be a strong pressure gradient over the region. There is potential for sustained N winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Gusts could approach 45 mph, especially across Long Island and coastal Connecticut, so do not want to completely rule out the potential for an Advisory (at least 45 mph gusts). Winds will likely be lower heading further inland, especially NW of the NYC metro. Wind speeds and gusts will continue to be refined over the next few days.

Minor coastal flooding and minor shoreline impacts are possible Sunday/Sunday night. A full moon occurs on Sunday coinciding with when the storm system is at its strongest over the western Atlantic. The strong offshore flow will limit the surge from the offshore storm. There is a chance for minor coastal flooding during times of high tide on Sunday/Sunday night, especially for the south shore back bays and potentially western Great South Bay. Other coastal locations may just see water levels touch minor benchmarks.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Late Tonight: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for some MVFR or lower conditions along with a chance of snow, mainly late night Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the terminals east of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night to 20-25 kt, then 30-35 kt on Sunday. There is low confidence at this time on the magnitude of winds and snow.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR with NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Marginal small craft conditions take place tonight into Friday on ocean waters with near 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft waves with a SCA in place for this. A Freezing Spray Advisory is also in place for much of this same period on ocean waters for moderate accumulation of freezing spray.

Sub Advisory conditions are then expected Friday night into Saturday. Conditions rapidly deteriorate with increase waves and winds Saturday night due to a passing low offshore.

A gale watch has been issued Saturday night beginning at midnight and runs through 6pm Sunday. There is also a low chance for storm force wind gusts on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet. However, trends have been gradually lowering wind gusts over the last several cycles so elected to hold off on the issuance of a storm watch. It is possible that a storm watch may be needed in subsequent forecasts. Otherwise, lingering gales are possible on the ocean Sunday night, but the overall trend is for conditions to return to SCA levels Monday and Tuesday, mainly on the ocean.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for CTZ005>012. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.