textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure moves northeast as weak high pressure builds in for Friday. Low pressure develops south of the area Saturday night and heads northeast Sunday. Strong high pressure then builds in for early next week. A warm front will approach Wednesday into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Key Points:

* Gusty winds through tonight with a Wind Advisory in effect for eastern and coastal areas.

* Sharply colder tonight.

The pressure gradient over the areas remains strong as departing low to the northeast continue to strengthen and weak high pressure builds in from the southwest. Mid-level energy swinging into the area into tonight will reinforce the strong CAA in the area. THis should continue to allow for enhanced mixing of the BL and keep gusty winds near the surface through much of the night. The pressure gradient weakens some late tonight into early Friday morning so gusts may begin to diminish by Friday morning.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the coastal and eastern areas of the CWA for occasional to frequent gusts of 45-50 mph until 4AM. This may need to be extended depending on if strong gusts persist into Friday morning. Otherwise, cold conditions expected tonight with temperatures in the teens for northern areas and low 20s along the coast. Wind chills will make it feel like the single digits north and in the teens elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Cold continues Friday into Friday night, followed by temperature moderation into Saturday.

* Light snow becoming more likely late Saturday night as cold air arrives.

A ridge of high pressure shifts into the area on Friday with gusty winds in the morning diminishing into the afternoon. Dry conditions with mostly clear skies are expected, though temperatures will be cold with highs in the 30s across the area. Cold temperatures persist Friday night with winds relaxing quite a bit. Low temperatures are expected to largely be in the 20s, though some northern locations may fall into the teens. Any location that is able to go calm may drop a few more degrees than forecast due to radiational cooling under mostly clear skies.

Winds shift WSW on Saturday as a low pressure system passes to the north. This will allow a moderating of the temperatures on Saturday with highs in the low 40s expected along the coast. While much of the day is expected to be dry, cloud cover will be increasing through the day.

An upper trough deepens Saturday night over the Great Lakes. This will force lift over much of the area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning as a surface low pressure develops south of the area. This lift should be realized in the form of widespread light snowfall expected to begin to overspread the area after midnight Saturday night. Depending on the temperatures along the immediate south shore of Long Island, an initial rain/snow mix may develop but expected to become all snow fairly quickly.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Points:

* Weak low pressure in association with an Arctic boundary and upper level disturbance brings a period of snow for the southeastern portions of the forecast area Sunday morning.

* A shot of unseasonably cold air will follow for Sunday through Monday night, with temps up to 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Temperatures should start to moderate late Tuesday into Tuesday night but will remain below normal.

Low pressure passes well north of the area Sunday morning, weakening as it does so. At the same time, a fast moving vorticity max rounds the base of the upper level trough over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and moves toward the forecast area. Additionally, and arctic front moves through on Sunday. Cyclogenesis is also likely along the front on Sunday well SE of New England after it passes through, likely too late to have significant snow impacts. However, an advisory level snowfall (2"-4") across NE NJ, NYC, and Long Island snowfall is looking more likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. The best chance of this looks to be for the more southeastern portions of the area as they will be closer to the low. There remain differences among global NWP (for example, the NAM gives portions of Long Island Winter Storm Warning criteria of around 6", while the GFS gives Long Island <1") so, NBM was followed closely.

After the passage of the cold front, colder and drier conditions move in through Tuesday. It will also become blustery Sunday night into Monday due to the tight pressure gradient between the intensifying low as it heads northeast, away from the area, and high pressure building from the west. The high should build over the area on Tuesday and remain in control through the middle of next week. The next chance for any precipitation looks to be Thursday with the approaches from the southwest.

Temps will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Monday, with lows in the teens and lower 20s (these could be lower, especially across outlying areas, depending on amount of snowpack, cloud cover and winds), and highs from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Wind chills late Sunday night/early Monday morning could drop to the either side of zero across a large portion of the region. Only slight moderation in high temps (lower to middle 30s) expected for Tuesday, with less wind chill impact as winds lighten.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Rest of Friday: VFR. W-WNW wind gusts near 20 kt. Gusts subside at night.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Snow moving in late Saturday night with MVFR to IFR possible. WSW wind gusts near 15 kt during the day.

Sunday: MVFR to IFR, possibly lower at times, in any snow, mainly early. Snow tapers off from west to east afternoon into early evening. Improving conditions afternoon into evening with VFR returning. NW winds G15-20kt. Some peak gusts up to 25 kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G20-25kt. Gusts lower at night with some gusts to 20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. W winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gale conditions across the waters through tonight with WNW winds in the wake of a cold front. Gales become more marginal late tonight for the western waters. Gales should continue for the eastern most waters through the entire night. As the winds decrease look for gale conditions to go to small craft conditions for the majority of the waters through the first half of the day Friday. Marginal small craft conditions should linger across the eastern ocean through Friday afternoon. Conditions continue to settle down for Friday night into Saturday morning. Ocean seas increase some Saturday night, but should remain just below small craft criteria.

Gale force wind gusts are possible Sunday as low pressure develops and intensifies along SE of Long Island. Seas should build to 5-9 ft on the ocean, and around 5 ft on the central/eastern sound.

Winds diminish, but remain at or above 25 kt for much of Monday, falling below SCA criteria Monday night. Waves on the ocean waters will remain above 5 ft through Monday, with a bit of a lull early Monday night before building again late Monday night. Waves on the sound fall below 5 ft Monday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

There are no hydrologic impacts expected through the entire forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for CTZ005>012. NY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ071>075-078>081- 176>179. NJ...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NJZ006. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340-345-350- 353. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ335-338-355.