textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is uncertainty that the area can destabilize enough into this evening to support severe weather. While the overall confidence in severe weather has decreased, there still remains a threat.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front will likely trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms this evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 2 AM for NE NJ, NYC metro and Southern Westchester.

2) Concentration of smoke across the region is forecast to decrease heading into Sunday. Air quality alerts remain in effect from State DEPs until midnight.

2) Dangerous rip currents are expected at ocean beaches through this evening, potentially lingering at Suffolk beaches early Sunday.

3) Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible late Tuesday into a portion of Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 4

Guidance continues to be in good agreement on an amplified shortwave trough moving across the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. The trough may linger through the end of week. The next front system will approach on Tuesday with increasing probabilities for another round of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. CSU MLP is still indicating a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm and WPC still has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. It is a bit too early for any specific severe or flooding impacts, but will continue monitoring trends over the next few days. Lingering showers may continue into a portion of Wednesday. High pressure should build into the northeast with mainly dry weather to end the week.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday night and Monday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms.

Thursday: Late day MVFR possible in showers.

MARINE

SCA has been dropped across the non-ocean waters as a warm front has remained across the area with a weaker flow. However, winds are forecast to increase from the SW this evening ahead of an approaching cold front with marginal SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters. Vertical temperature profile is inverted over the waters, so getting winds much higher than 25 kt to the surface will be a challenge. but the SW fetch should get seas up to 5 ft. 5 ft seas may linger on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet into Sunday morning.

Conditions are then quiet until the next cold frontal passage during the middle of next week. SCA conditions are possible Tuesday through Wednesday night, with the potential of 7 to 10 ft seas.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ071>075-176-178. High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.