textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter Weather Advisory expanded to include Rockland and Westchester Counties into early this evening.

Coverage of a potential glaze of ice Wednesday night into Thursday morning has expanded through the rest of southern CT and portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. However, confidence remains low at this time, with only a slight chance of freezing rain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Freezing rain to linger across portions of the interior into this evening before going over to rain.

2) Low potential for a glaze of ice Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT.

3) Above normal temperatures and generally rainy late week into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A warm front will gradually approach the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Ahead of it, a very weak pressure gradient will be in place over the area as high pressure is slow to weaken and shift offshore. With the weak pressure gradient leading to light winds, and mostly clear skies expected to start the night, areas across the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT may be able to drop down to near freezing or below. Then as precipitation moves into the area this could result in some locations seeing a brief period of freezing rain before a changeover to all plain rain. This is a very low chance at this time. Backed off PoPs compared to the NBM because forecast soundings are way too dry early Wednesday night to support any precipitation. Stuck close to NBM temps for now but these will be very sensitive based on winds, clouds and even fog development. Regardless, if any ice accumulation does occur, it will likely be limited to a glaze or a hundredth of an inch.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday afternoon: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night: Lowering to MVFR/IFR mainly late at night with a chance of rain.

Thursday: MVFR or lower cond with periods of rain and fog.

Friday: Sub VFR possible early with a chance of showers, with VFR more likely by afternoon.

Saturday: MVFR/VFR with a slight chance of showers.

Sunday: Possible sub VFR early with a chance of showers, otherwise mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Marginal SCA conditions (5-6 ft seas) are expected on the ocean waters tonight into Wednesday due to a period of southwesterly winds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters. High pressure follows on Wednesday.

Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on the waters midweek through the end of the week. However, brief 5ft waves are possible on the ocean waters on Friday.

An increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front on Saturday will bring the next chance for more widespread SCA conditions.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>008. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ067-068. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ069- 070. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.