textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued for the eastern Long Island Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the ocean waters from Moriches Inlet to Montauk out 20 NM.

A Special Weather Statement for patchy dense fog was issued for portions of southern CT and eastern Long Island.

No changes were made to the Extreme Heat Watch.

Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, north and west of NYC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Patchy dense fog this morning.

2) Dangerous heat is possible mid to late week, potentially into Saturday.

3) Potential for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Given our placement on the northern periphery of the upper level ridge, we are set up for potential convection/MCSs rounding the base of the ridge. While this is common in this pattern, there is usually a lot of uncertainty in timing, placement and strength of this activity. This is being seen currently with large spread in the latest guidance. However, guidance is currently hinting at activity Tuesday and Wednesday. Most notably the 00z 6/29 HRRR, FV3 and ARW showing a decaying MCS moving in from the northwest Tuesday afternoon. The SPC has kept the marginal severe risk northwest of our area. If any activity is approaching, it will likely be moving into an unfavorable environment with very little instability.

Additional thunderstorm activity is possible on Wednesday, with the SPC expanding the marginal risk through the Lower Hudson Valley. There is a bit more uncertainty in the guidance for this time frame with difference in strength/existence of a shortwave moving through and its ability to weaken the ridge. This would be a high instability, weak shear situation with uncertainty in a trigger. This will have to be monitored by subsequent shifts.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

.Late Tonight: Mainly VFR, but chances for IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus east of NYC terminals, more likely at KGON.

.Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but chances for IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus east of NYC terminals, more likely at KGON for early morning. Also, brief localized MVFR or lower possible in late day into nighttime showers or thunderstorms. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly along the coast, afternoon into night.

.Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but brief localized MVFR or lower possible in late day into nighttime showers or thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly along the coast, afternoon into evening.

.Thursday: VFR.

.Friday: Mainly VFR, but chances for MVFR or lower with chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially towards the evening. Some SW- NW wind gusts 15-20 kt are possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued for the eastern Long Island Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the ocean waters from Moriches Inlet to Montauk out 20 NM. The dense fog is expected to dissipate by mid morning.

Mainly sub-Small Craft Advisory criteria expected through the weekend. There will just likely be a brief period Tuesday afternoon and then again Wednesday into Wednesday night when a S/SW flow will likely gust up to 25+ kt. During the Wednesday/Wednesday night period the ocean seas will also likely reach 5 to 6 ft.

Rip Currents: No changes to the rip current forecast. Light winds and a 1-2 ft swell will lead to a low risk of rip activity today. A S/SW flow increases on Tuesday and will raise the risk to moderate with the developing wind wave.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

July 1: KEWR: 100/1963 KBDR: 95/1963 KNYC: 100/1901 KLGA: 97/2018 KJFK: 102/1963 KISP: 96/1964

July 2: KEWR: 102/1966 KBDR: 100/1966 KNYC: 100/1966 KLGA: 101/1966 KJFK: 101/1966 KISP: 99/1966

July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 1: KEWR: 77/2018 KBDR: 73/2013 KNYC: 79/2018 KLGA: 79/2018 KJFK: 75/1968 KISP: 73/2025

July 2: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 82/1901 KLGA: 78/2002 KJFK: 74/2018 KISP: 74/2014

July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018

July 4: KEWR: 81/2002 KBDR: 80/2002 KNYC: 81/2002 KLGA: 82/1999 KJFK: 80/2002 KISP: 76/2002

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332- 340-350.