textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No notable changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The unseasonably cold and at times frigid conditions continues through this week. Subsequent issuances of cold weather advisories are likely for portions of the region for the next few nights, potentially through Friday night.

2) A coastal storm develops off the SE US Coast this weekend. It remains too soon to determine impacts. At this time the eastern third of the region has the relatively higher chance at seeing some accumulating snowfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday evening. Most of the dynamic modeling has the storm being the nearest of misses, or a side swipe / brush for eastern sections east of the NYC metro. The longwave pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to progress east while amplifying. At this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely scenario is the nearest of misses, or perhaps the region gets bisected with a sharp cut off in moisture / QPF. With an eastern track and arctic air in place beforehand precipitation would in the form of all snow. Most of the modeling on most of the more recent runs has had the main 500 mb vorticity maximum pass just south of Cape Hatteras would typically means a miss for our region with heavy snowfall. However the slightest misrepresentation of the upper levels by NWP would have massive consequences in terms of sensible weather, especially further east across the region. Strong winds remain a distinct possibility, especially further east. Stay tuned because changes in the forecast for the second half of the weekend remain in play.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday and Friday: VFR. WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR initially, then MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow, mainly late night Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the terminals east of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night to 20-25 kt, then 30-35kt on Sunday. There is low confidence at this time on the magnitude of winds and snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small craft conditions will remain in place for the ocean waters through midday, followed by sub advisory conditions later in the afternoon and through Thursday for all waters. Marginal small craft conditions should then begin to take place on the ocean with gusts getting close to 25 kt at times Thursday night and Friday. Sub advisory conditions prevail on a NW to NW flow Friday night and Saturday. By Saturday night winds and seas increase quickly resulting in widespread gale conditions, and potentially storm conditions for portions of the ocean into Sunday and at least much of Sunday night. Small craft conditions are expected to linger into Monday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ072>075-176>179. NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ006- 105>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355.