textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes to the spotty freezing drizzle N&W of NYC/NJ metro overnight into early Tuesday AM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for patchy freezing drizzle outside of NYC/NJ metro late Tonight into early Tuesday AM.

2) Mainly rain event for the area Wednesday, with potential for a transition to light wintry mix across interior (particularly S CT) late Wednesday into Wednesday Night.

3) Predictability details remain low at this point for the latter half of this week, especially the Friday and late weekend time frames.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Low predictability with a good degree of disagreement in 500 mb mass field forecast output between the global NWP and AI guidance for the late week and early next week time frame.

First, uncertainty surrounds how far north a frontal boundary gets during Friday. This is important as this will determine precip type(s), especially further north where temperatures will be closer to freezing. Otherwise southern portions of the region should see primarily rain on Friday, but colder air may get into towards early Saturday where some of the precip may be in frozen form before exiting and pushing to the east.

Second, some guidance is suggesting another wave of low pressure along or just off the coast towards later in the weekend. Some of the ECMWF AI and now the ICON deterministic runs indicating another wave of low pressure and potential east coast storm late Sun into Mon. For now will carry straight blend / consensus guidance until details come better into focus. Suffice it to say there will be chance of snow or mixed precip late in the weekend and potentially early next week on Monday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions moving in from the west toward 12Z Wednesday. Low chance of IFR at the Lower Hudson Valley terminals.

Wednesday: Rain. IFR cond expected in the afternoon/evening, improving to MVFR after midnight.

Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday night: MVFR or lower cond possible, with chance of snow at KSWF and rain/snow elsewhere.

Friday: MVFR or lower cond expected, with rain at the NYC metros/KISP and rain/snow to the north.

Saturday: Still a chance of MVFR or lower cond, with rain/snow at KSWF and mainly rain elsewhere.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA conditions on ocean waters through late Tuesday Night. Northeast gusts to 25kt this afternoon, subside this evening and back to the SW. Meanwhile 4-6 ft ocean seas, mainly in a easterly swell, will remain elevated into Tuesday evening.

Winds and seas fall below SCA Tuesday Night as weak high pressure moves across the waters. Generally sub SCA conditions through Saturday as frontal boundary wavers near the waters with weak areas of low pressure traveling on it Wednesday and Friday. Marginal SCA conds possible on the ocean during both periods, mainly for seas.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.