textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A High Rip Current Risk has been issued for Thursday. The Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday has been expanded to include the entire area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous rip currents expected Thursday.

2) Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

3) Low pressure may produce locally heavy rain as well as thunderstorms around the beginning of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The modeling suggests low pres developing east of the Rockies this weekend will track across the country and bring rain to the area sometime during the beginning of next week. Timing right now is as early as Sun ngt, and as late as Mon ngt. Signal is reflected in the NBM pops which are 60 percent even this far out.

Convection embedded in this sys will enhance rainfall rates, and the GFS already suggests over an inch in a swath along and north of the low track. Would expect some higher amounts than this due to the convective component. There may also be a severe risk in the warm sector, although it gets tricky once again locally with any onshore flow limiting instability.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Late Tonight: Chance of MVFR or IFR. Showers possible NW of NYC metro terminals.

Thursday: Showers and a few thunderstorms possible. Chance of MVFR or IFR conditions. SW winds around 15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt, strongest near the coast. Winds and gusts weaken in the evening. gusts near 25-30kt day into early eve, then gusts near 20kt.

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 20 kt.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt Saturday and 20 kt on Sunday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas blw sca lvls today, then S winds pick of tngt with sca conditions developing on Thu. An advy has been issued for all waters Thu and Thu ngt, although the peak winds appear to be during the day on Thu. There is a chance for winds to reach mrgnl gale force, especially on the ocean, but confidence is too low attm. In addition, tstms will be possible on Thu and any of these will be capable of producing winds over 35kt.

W winds are modeled to stay blw sca lvls on Fri, although seas on the ocean may linger aoa 5 ft. Similar conditions on Sat, but even more mrgnl, then winds and seas blw sca lvls all waters for Sun.

Low pres may impact the waters on Mon, with sca conditions possible.

Rip Currents:

Today, the rip current risk is moderate due to SE flow increasing to around 10kt and waves around 2 ft.

For Thursday, the rip current risk is high with strong S winds and waves around 4-6 ft.

For Friday, the rip current risk is moderate to high with lingering swell and gusty W winds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.