textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry conditions through Wednesday.

2) Widespread rain expected Wednesday night through Thursday.

3) Low potential at this time for an offshore low pressure system to bring unsettled weather to the area this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The next chance for unsettled weather could come this weekend with a passing offshore low. The GFS is the most aggressive showing phasing of the northern and southern stream with a surface low deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This would bring wet and windy conditions to the area. Both the ECMWF and Canadian are either offshore or weaker with this system, so there is plenty of uncertainty. Stuck with NBM slight chance/chance PoPs for now.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday afternoon: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, MVFR possible late in the day west with a chance of showers.

Wednesday Night-Thursday: MVFR to IFR, possibly lower, with showers, tapering off late Thursday. Slight chance of thunder Wednesday night. NW gusts 15-20 kt late Thursday.

Friday: VFR. WNW gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small Craft Advisories remain in place for ocean waters (out to 20 NM) through Tuesday due to a lingering 5ft swell from an offshore low. Have extended the central and eastern ocean zones into Tuesday night, where confidence is a bit higher for 5ft seas to linger. Its possible that the SCA may need to go into Tuesday night for the western ocean waters, however confidence not high enough at this time.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisory conditions expected on the ocean waters out to 20 NM Thursday into Friday with the passage of a cold front. 20-25 kt gusts are expected with 5 to 6 ft seas. There is potential for some non-ocean waters to see 25 kt gusts as well, but confidence is low at this time.

Uncertainty increases thereafter. There is potential for an offshore low pressure system to pass close enough to bring impacts to the waters.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.