textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure across the area this morning shifts offshore as a weak clipper low passes to the north tonight. A stronger low approaching on Wednesday will pass to the north and send a cold front through the area Wednesday night. High pressure will then build southeast from the northern Plains to the Mid Atlantic coast from Thursday into Friday, then move off the Southeast coast Friday afternoon. A series of clipper lows will pass close by Friday night into Saturday night. An Arctic cold front will move through on Sunday, with strong high pressure building in on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Points:

* Warmer today, but still around 10 degrees above normal.

* A slight chance (20 percent) of light snow inland and light rain or snow at the coast across southeast Connecticut and eastern LI tonight. Any precipitation will be brief. No accumulation expected.

Weakening high pressure slides across the area this morning and then offshore this afternoon. A weakening clipper low over the Great Lakes today will pass well north of the area tonight. Weak warm advection ahead of the system and limited moisture will combine for a slight chance (20%) of light snow inland and light rain or snow at the coast across southeast CT and eastern LI.

While warmer today, high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 20s inland to the lower and and mid 30s along the coast. The highest temperatures will likely come this evening into the overnight with a strengthening southerly flow between low pressure and the offshore high. Coastal locations may even see gust up to around 20 mph overnight, which will push temperatures above freezing. The interior will rise, but remain below freezing.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Much warmer on Wednesday with highs getting into the 40s with the exception of locations well north and west of NYC.

* Deepening low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday will bring a chance of snow or a rain/snow mix across inland locations. A changeover to rain is expected. Best chance for a minor accumulation will be across Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and Western Passaic in NJ.

* A return to below normal temperatures Thursday.

A progressive southern branch of the polar jet will send Pac jet energy into the Midwest, while additional shortwave energy rotating about a polar vortex over eastern Canada allows some phasing of the two streams. The result will be a deepening low that tracks across the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday, passing well north and west into eastern Canada Wednesday night. Warm advection and upper jet dynamics will produce a light precipitation event across the area, with liquid equivalent amount of 1-2 tenths. Thus, any snow accumulation inland is expected to be minor with the highest amounts across Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and western Passaic in NJ. These locations could see up to an inch in spots. A complete changeover to rain is still expected but there has been a slight cooling trend over the last 24h. Coastal locations will see all rain from the start. Temperatures are also forecast to get above freezing everywhere. SW winds will continue ahead of the system and remain gusty at the coast. Weighed in some NBM90th for stronger winds based on 00Z vertical wind profiles from the GFS and NAM (which have been consistent with this).

Conditions then dry out Wednesday night with some light precipitation possibly lingering into the evening. Following a cold frontal passage, lows will drop into the upper 20s inland and the lower 30s at the coast by daybreak.

Below normal temperatures and gusty WNW flow will follow on Thursday with gusts up to 30 mph likely. Once again, leaned toward the NBM90 as the NBM in cold advection and westerly flow is often deficient. Highs Thursday are forecast to be in the 30s with lows Thursday night in the 20s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key Points:

* Temperatures will be at least several degrees below normal through Saturday, then trend even colder early next week.

* A clipper low may bring light snow or flurries to the area Friday night into early Saturday. Another system will bring a chance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some of the 00Z guidance is showing the potential for a more substantial system.

* Another shot of Arctic air arriving behind low pressure Sunday into early next week.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late Tonight: VFR. SW gusts 20-25kt for the coastal terminals.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the afternoon and into the evening. S-SW 10-15g25-30 kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late in the day or at night. W gusts around 20 kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts 20- 25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gale watch has been posted for all waters Wednesday in a strengthening S/SW flow. This will be preceded by SCA tonight. There is even a possibility for occasional gale force gusts on the ocean waters tonight. Gust potential Wednesday looks to be around 40 kt on the ocean waters and around 35 kt on the Sound and Bays. During this time, leaned toward the NBM90, which may be underdone still. 00Z GFS and NAM soundings show potential for a period where gusts may get up to 45 kt on the ocean waters. Seas are forecast to get as high on 8-13 ft on the ocean waters Wednesday.

SCA cond likely on all waters Thu into Thu night, with W-NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and some gusts on the ocean approaching minimal gale force.

Any lull in wind gusts/seas just below 25 kt/5 ft on the ocean late Fri into Fri night will be short lived.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for ANZ350-353-355.