textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The most widespread showers have pushed south of the majority of the local area, although isolated showers can't be ruled out across the western fringe of the area through the rest of the afternoon. Have adjusted PoPs through this afternoon based on latest radar trends and have decreased thunderstorm potential given the lack of instability.

Added tidal areas of NE NJ, Staten Island, and southern Queens to the ongoing coastal flood statement, which now covers the late day/early evening high tide cycles both today and Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated showers remain possible primarily over the Hudson Valley and possibly into northern NJ this afternoon.

2) Dry and seasonably warm weather expected Sunday into Monday before hot and humid conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday.

3) Brief minor tidal flooding likely this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The combination of high astronomical tides due to the upcoming new moon on July 14 and a minor of push of water toward the coastline in an E flow today and Sunday will bring water levels in some locations to around or just above minor coastal flood benchmarks. The locations that look most susceptible at this time are the more vulnerable locales of coastal Fairfield, southern Nassau/Queens, and tidal areas of NE NJ and Staten Island. A coastal flood statement has been issued for these locations covering the late day/early evening high tide cycles today and Sunday.

The threat may linger longer into early next week as we approach the new moon, however, much of the guidance keeps water levels just below as winds become southerly. This will have to be watched though as we could still skirt near minor flood thresholds. Any flooding at that time would be brief/minor.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday through Thursday: VFR expected. Tue and Wed SW-WSW wind G15-20kt

MARINE

Winds/waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through today as high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. East/northeast winds may briefly increase to 15G20kt as the high builds in late tonight/early Sunday morning which could allow waves to build to around 4ft for a few hours. Light southerly flow is expected on Monday with gusts to 20 knots possible Monday evening into Monday night. The next solid chance of SCA conditions will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as southwest winds increase and ocean waves build to 3 to 6 feet (highest waves will be in eastern ocean zones). Gusts may approach 30 knots in the eastern ocean zones during this time.

Rip Currents: Low to locally moderate rip risk (E to W longshore current dominant) for today and Sunday with 1-2 ft S/SE swells, and 3 ft E wind waves.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.