textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost Advisory was cancelled.

Small Craft Advisory issued for the ocean waters for Monday into Monday night. Otherwise forecast remains mostly on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Sunday will be dry with slightly below seasonable temps, and only slightly higher min RH values of 25-35%, possibly a few wind gusts to 20 mph late in the afternoon from NYC north/west.

2. Unseasonably mild/warm (10-15 degrees above normal) on Monday with SW winds gusting to 25-35 mph likely across NYC/NJ metro and interior in the aft/eve.

3. Forecast remains on track for a significant warmup next week, peaking during the Wednesday into Thursday time frame.

KEY MESSAGE 3

It will be unseasonably warm Tuesday through next Saturday, with the potential for record warmth mid week. A broad upper ridge centered over the Southeast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a confluent flow to the north will produce a warm, deep layer WSW flow. High temperatures on will average at least 15-25 degrees above normal and as much as 20-30 degrees above normal on Wed, when some record high temps are possible. Temps in metro NE NJ Wednesday and Thursday may peak around 90. Records during the late wee time frame are quite high, getting into the heat wave of 2002. Several climate sites from April 16-18 2002 reached 90 or higher for 3 consecutive days. Don't see that happening at this time. Additionally, there is the potential for an even longer period of days with record high minimum temperatures.

Where this forecast could go wrong is with the proximity of a frontal boundary to the north during mid week, and then Thu night/Fri when a weak cold front may move into the area.

As for rain chances, any convection moving around the ridge into the area still looks to be of low probability.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: Brief MVFR possible early, especially north. Otherwise mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers during the afternoon and evening, MVFR possible early and late. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day, best chances inland, with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub SCA conditions through tonight, although a brief period of gusts up to 20 kt is possible late today into early evening for NY Harbor and adjacent ocean waters near the harbor entrance via sea breeze enhanced SE-S winds.

SCA issued for the ocean waters for Mon into Mon night as SW flow increasing to 20 kt could gust to 25 kt at times through the day on the ocean, as well as bring seas 5-7 ft from then into Mon night. An SCA may eventually be needed elsewhere, as gusts to 25 kt may also be possible on the Long Island south shore bays, NY Harbor and the western Sound Mon afternoon/early evening due to sea breeze enhancement.

Some 5-ft seas may linger on the ern ocean waters into early Tue AM. Otherwise, sub SCA cond expected into Thu night.

CLIMATE

Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.