textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense fog advisory on the ocean extended until 6 pm. The advisory was also extended to include the Great South Bay.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, this afternoon/early evening from NYC north/west will be followed by more numerous showers for Long Island into southern Connecticut tonight into early Monday morning.

2) Unsettled weather expected mid to late week with the highest probability of showers late Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will settle over the area by this evening. Scattered showers with an embedded thunderstorm are possible for the rest of the afternoon as the front slowly moves in from the north and west. Marginal CAPE is available, but convection is expected to remain low-topped, with one or two strong enough to produce a few lightning strikes, mainly NW of the NYC metro. A few of the showers could produce a brief downpour.

By early evening, the cold front should be in the vicinity of the Hudson River corridor and NYC metro. A weak wave should form along the front in advance of a 250 mb jet streak approaching from the Ohio Valley. Showers may become a bit more numerous, especially from the NYC metro on east across Long Island and then into southeast Connecticut. The latest CAMs are in relatively good agreement with this scenario and support likely PoPs for these areas this evening. The front and associated wave will slowly advance eastward overnight lingering showers residing across eastern Long Island and potentially into southeast Connecticut.

The showers this evening into tonight will largely be on the light side, although a few pockets of brief moderate rates are possible. Average QPF is generally around a tenth of an inch or less.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure and its associated mid level shortwave will dive SE into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night. This system will carve out a deeper mid-upper level trough over the eastern States mid to late week. The low pressure and its associated frontal system will likely impact the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Modeling has differed over the last few days with how quickly the mid-upper trough will move across the northeast. The trough may not completely push offshore until at some point on Friday.

Unsettled conditions are expected by late Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. There is a chance these conditions may persist into Friday, depending on the timing of the upper trough. Showers with this system may arrive Wednesday afternoon, with the most likely time for organized showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Chances for showers could linger Thursday night into Friday. Consensus approach argues for rainfall of around one half inch, but localized amounts could be higher in any convection, late Wednesday into Thursday. Any rain beyond Thursday likely will be scattered and with light amounts.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday PM-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt possible in the afternoon. Coastal S/SW sea breeze possible.

Wednesday: Showers developing through the day. MVFR or lower conditions. S winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday-Friday: Showers possible with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Extended the dense fog advisory on the ocean out 20 nm through 6 pm. Visibilities may begin improving west of Fire Island Inlet a bit quicker, but the remainder of these ocean zones, particularly close to shore, continue to have visibilities 1 NM or less. Locally dense fog is also possible on the central and eastern LI Sound the rest of the afternoon, although this may improve a bit quicker compared to the ocean.

Otherwise, an SCA is in effect on the ocean through 2 am west of Moriches Inlet and to 8 am east of Moriches Inlet. Swells 5-6 ft are likely to continue during this time frame. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels through early Wednesday. An approaching cold front will increase winds and build seas, bringing the next chance for 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas on the ocean Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Winds on the non-ocean may also reach 25 kt. These conditions could linger into early Thursday, but subside below SCA to end the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345-350- 353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353-355.