textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure moves east northeast and offshore this afternoon. High pressure then builds southwest of the region Monday into Monday night as a weak low pressure system approaches and eventually moves across from the Great Lakes. High pressure returns for Tuesday building in briefly, before moving offshore by Tuesday night. A cold front moves across Wednesday night. High pressure then follows for Thursday. A strong cold front approaches from the west Thursday night and moves across Friday. High pressure returns thereafter into the start of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Points:

* Widespread storm total snowfall of 3 to 6 inches expected across the region, with 4 to 7 inches on Long island. Localized higher amounts possible.

* Snow coming to an end early this afternoon.

* Snowfall rates of 1"/hr snowfall still possible across the forks of Long Island early this afternoon.

Back edge of steady snow working into ern Long Island/CT, with some lingering flurries all the way back to the NYC metro area. Much of Long Island ending with warning criteria of 6-7".

Temperatures will slowly drop through this afternoon, with cold advection evident on gusty northerly flow over the the last couple of hours with temps dropping a few to several degrees for NYC/NJ metro and N&W. Expect this to continue southeast through the afternoon. Hard freeze expected after sundown on untreated wet/slushy surfaces.

Winds pick up this afternoon, then the winds get more gusty with stronger cold advection and a tightening pressure gradient through the evening and into the first half of tonight. Wind chills late at night/early Monday morning dip to -5 to 5 above, but remain short of Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Regardless, it will feel like the coldest night of the season thus far.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Breezy and cold for Monday with high temperatures well below normal, averaging around only 30. A weak disturbance could trigger isolated to scattered snow showers late in the day into Monday night. Tuesday should then be dry and only slightly warmer than Monday, but at least with much lighter winds. The dry weather continues into Tuesday with below normal temperatures continue.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key Points:

* Temperatures moderate Wednesday and Thursday, getting back into the 40s with even some 50s for Thursday, before trending colder Friday and Saturday.

* Next main precipitation event Thursday night into early Friday, primarily in the form of rain.

* No advisory or warning thresholds expected to be approached through the period.

NBM wind fields imply pretty good agreement with global deterministic and ensemble models regarding a cold front moving through the area during Thursday night. This is in association with a strong area of low pressure moving through Quebec. Thursday night appears to have the highest probability of rainfall, but PoPs may eventually be adjusted upward for at least Friday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday afternoon: Mainly VFR. W winds 15G20kt.

Monday night: Mainly VFR. Winds backing SW and diminishing.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday night: Rain with IFR cond, especially after midnight. S winds 10-15G20-25kt in the evening, increasing to 15-20G25-35kt after midnight. LLWS after midnight.

Friday: Chance of rain and either MVFR/IFR cond in the morning, then VFR. SW winds 15-20G25-35kt in the morning, shifting W in the afternoon. LLWS early.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Only change to headlines was to upgrade to a Gale Warning for the ocean waters tonight into Monday morning. SCA conds otherwise on all waters today, and for the non-ocean waters, this lasts through Monday afternoon. There could however be occasional gale force gusts tonight. Light freezing spray also anticipated across the waters tonight into Monday.

SCA level seas remain on the ocean Monday through early Tuesday. Brief period of sub-SCA seas then forecast for rest of Tuesday through much of Tuesday night. SCA level seas are also forecast towards mid to late week on the ocean. By Thursday night, parts of LI Sound are also forecast to reach SCA levels.

HYDROLOGY

There are no hydrologic impacts expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ078>081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.