textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Strong low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes this morning will track northeast and up into the St. Lawrence River Valley tonight, sending a cold front through the area late. The deepening low will lift up into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday into Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the southwest. The weakening high builds into the area Friday night. Another clipper low over the Great Lakes Saturday will send another shot of arctic air across the region Saturday night into Sunday. Strong high pressure will then build in early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Points:

* Minor snow event forecast for Western Passaic NJ, Orange County NY, Putnam County NY, and the northern tip of Fairfield County CT late this morning into this afternoon. Snow mixing with, if not changing to all rain, will limit accumulations of snow. Little to no snow accumulation for most locations. A few spots, particularly north and west of I-84 in Orange County could see up to a slushy, wet inch.

* Light rainfall event for the rest of the forecast area. * SW winds gusting 20 to 35 mph today, highest across the coast this afternoon into early this evening. Winds will then become west late tonight behind a cold front with gusts 20 to 30 mph.

Biggest change this go around has been for less warm advection precipitation ahead of a strong low over the Lower Great Lakes this morning. In fact, much of the guidance has trended to a dry morning with the possible exception of far western portions of Orange county in the Lower Hudson Valley. This has been reflected in the latest NBM. Temperatures have actually fallen back off a bit even along the coast where eastern LI and SE CT earlier with the onshore flow rose into the lower 40s. Winds have veered a bit more to the west with less of a marine influence, thus the cooling.

Much of the precipitation that falls later this afternoon into the evening will be associated with upper jet dynamics. In fact, while there is some lift from warm advection, the low levels this morning are dry and the main reason why the morning will be mainly dry. Any snow that does fall will be across Orange and Putnam counties in NY and western Passaic in NJ. Even at these locations expect it to mix with rain and even go over to all rain in southern and eastern portions of these counties. Liquid equivalent amounts remain at only 1-2 tenths. This combined with temperatures above freezing will mean little if any will accumulate. Latest snow forecast only calling for a minor accumulations up to a few tenths of an inch, but higher amounts north and west of I-84 and Port Jervis have the chance to up to an inch.

The band of precipitation will work west to east across the area this afternoon into this evening, clearing much of the area by midnight. There could be some lingering light rain across far eastern LI/SE CT in the early morning hours.

SW winds today will gusts 20 to 30 mph, highest along the coast. Would not be surprised to see a few gusts up to 35 mph at the coast. Once gain, the forecast is heavily based on the NBM90 as supported by some 00Z guidance. NBM looks underdone.

Highs today are forecast to get well into the 40s along the coast, falling off into the mid and upper 30s well north and west of NYC. Following a cold frontal passage late tonight, temperatures are forecast to fall into the 20s well inland and to around 30 at the coast. Gusty west winds behind the front should limit the amount of cooling although there will be some clearing late. Stayed with the NBM for temps, but it's quite possible it may later need to be adjusted upward a bit.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures through the period with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

* WNW winds Thursday gusting to 30 to 40 mph but some peak higher gusts near 45 mph possible. This will produce wind chill values in the teens and 20s.

Deepening low pressure lifts north across the Canadian Maritimes, with high pressure building in from the SW. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the region with strong WNW winds Thursday into Thursday night. Winds look to below advisory level at this time. This combined with below normal temperatures in the 30s will produce wind chill values in the teens and 20s, falling off into the single digits and teens Thursday night.

There is some hint of a band of snow showers potentially working in from the west, originating off the Great Lakes making into the Poconos and possibly northern NJ and Orange County in the Lower Hudson Valley. This is not reflected in the NBM, but noted particularly in the CAMs. There is even some weak instability up 50 J/KG in the NAM.

High pressure building in from the southwest will allow for winds to come down some on Friday and even go light Friday night as the high builds overhead. Stayed with NBM chances of light snow or flurries Friday night, but the trend is toward drying and this could very well be removed in a subsequent forecast. Warm advection has weakened.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Points:

* A clipper low may bring in light snow or flurries for Saturday morning. The trend is toward a drier forecast.

* An Arctic cold front and associated upper level disturbance will bring a better chance for light snow Saturday night into Sunday morning.

* A shot of Arctic air will follow for later Sunday into Tuesday, with temps up to 10 degrees below normal.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 30-35kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late at night. W gusts around 20 kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in snow. NW flow with gusts to around 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gale warning in effect for all waters except NY Harbor today in a SW flow. There is expected to be small fall off in winds tonight to just below criteria, but westerly gales are likely to return to all waters Thursday into Thursday night as low pressure tracks across eastern Canada and high pressure builds in from the southwest, maintaining a strong pressure gradient. Ocean seas Wednesday forecast to build to near 7 to 12 feet with 3 to 5 feet for the Eastern Long Island Sound seas. For Thursday, expect similar seas on the ocean, but 4 to 7 ft across eastern LI Sound.

SCA cond on all waters Fri morning (W winds gusting to 25-30 kt, with seas 5-10 ft on the ocean and 4-5 ft on the central/ern Sound) should slowly wind down Fri afternoon, lingering on the ocean waters (gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4-6 ft) into Fri evening. After an upper level disturbance passes by, SCA cond should return to the ocean waters Sat morning and the non ocean waters Sat afternoon, with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas 3-5 ft, and continue into Sat night.

After an Arctic cold frontal passage on Sunday, then as low pressure develops/intensifies along the front SE of New England, winds should veer NW, and gale force wind gusts will be possible. Seas should build to 5-8 ft on the ocean, and up to 5 ft on the central/ern Sound.

HYDROLOGY

Less than a quarter of an inch of liquid equivalent through tonight. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.