textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High risk of rip currents at ocean beaches through this evening, becoming moderate for Saturday and possibly for Sunday as well.

2) A mainly dry, breezy and seasonably warm weekend is expected.

3) Elevated risk for fire spread for SE CT on Saturday.

4) Low pressure brings a period of heavy rain and possible thunderstorms to the region Monday into Monday evening, with potential for urban and poor drainage flood impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 4

Global models continue in general agreement with a northern stream upper low drifting from southern Ontario into southern Quebec Mon into Tue. Meanwhile a PAC shortwave sliding over the West coast this morning, will eventually slide into the central Plains on Saturday and works eastward towards the region Monday into early Tuesday. General agreement on resultant low pressure developing east of the Rocky Mountains on Saturday and tracking east along a stalled frontal boundary towards the region Monday and crossing Monday Night.

Still a good amount of inherent timing/location spread with northern stream low and PAC shortwave/vorts, likely amplified by possible convective error in the latter features. These subtle differences will affect the strength, track and timing of low pressure. This could be difference between a (southern track) longer duration (8-12 hr) soaking stratiform rainfall with perhaps some embedded elevated convection or a (northern track) shorter duration frontal band of heavy downpours with iso-sct strong to severe thunderstorm threat (high shear/weak cape/strong frontal forcing), or something in between. These details will likely be resolved over the next 48 hrs.

With that said, synoptic environment of moderate to strong moisture convergence in vicinity of warm front and low pressure from a (+3-4 STD) llj lifting a nearly (+1.5-2 STD) 2" PWAT weakly unstable and warm cloud airmass over the region presents threat for a period of heavy rain Monday into Monday Night. This is in line with the marginal risk for excessive rainfall at this time.

NWS National Blend of Models (NBM Ensemble probabilities are signaling (60-80%) probabilities of >1" of rain in 24/hr, (25-50%) probabilities of >2" of rain in 24 hrs, and 5-10% probabilities of >2" of rain in 24 hrs. This is an upward trend from 24 hrs ago. At this point a general 1-2" of basin average rainfall looks reasonable, with potential for a swath of 3"+. Much of this could fall in only a 6hr period, which presents potential for urban and poor drainage flooding, and despite the dry conditions even some minor flood impacts along flashy small rivers and stream (per latest headwater guidance).

As with any heavy rain event, the above mentioned synoptic details and then the mesoscale details will need to be resolved (Sat Night/Sun model runs) for more specifics on rainfall rates and rainfall maxima location and amounts. Will monitor trends this weekend, with more specificity and impacts details as we get into the high-res CAM window this weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday: VFR. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: MVFR or lower with rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms. S-SE gusts 20-30 kt, strongest near the coast.

Monday Night-Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain early, then improving to VFR into Tuesday.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Marginal W/SW SCA gusts on nearshore this afternoon. Meanwhile residual waves 4-5 s swells on the ocean waters will have ocean seas continue around 5 ft today into this evening, and likely linger across waters east of Fire Island Inlet through Saturday.

Potential for SCA gusts on all water late tonight into Saturday afternoon in wake of cold frontal passage. Sub-SCA conditions then expected Sat Night into Sun Night as high pressure drifts thru the waters.

A periods of SCA conditions likely on all waters Monday into Monday Night, with potential for a brief period of gales as a low pressure system affects the waters.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.