textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for Aviation.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry and breezy conditions expected through the week as a nor'easter slowly passes well south and east of the region.

2) Minor coastal flooding possible during high tide Wednesday evening into Thursday for south shore back bays of Nassau and portions of Great South Bay.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Astronomical tides remain low much of the week, but persistent N-NE flow should start bringing a rise in tide levels through Wednesday. Persistent swells from the offshore system may also bring tidal piling and potentially some minor beach erosion.

No concerns for any coastal flooding today and water levels should remain below minor benchmarks with the Wednesday morning high tide. The Wednesday evening tide cycle currently has the highest potential for minor coastal flooding across the most vulnerable locations of the south shore back bays in Nassau and across the western Great South Bay. Guidance has shown a slight downward trend with tide levels for these locations, but there still is a fair amount of spread. Coastal flood statements or advisories may eventually be needed for these locations. Water levels in portions of the lower NY Harbor could come close to minor benchmarks, but look to fall just short. Elsewhere, no coastal flooding is anticipated with Wednesday evening high tide.

Most locations should remain below benchmarks on Thursday, but will have to monitor observational trends at Lindenhurst and potentially Freeport where tidal piling could limit how much water moves out of the bays. Additional statements or advisories are possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tonight: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. NE winds G20-30kt, highest near the coast. Thursday and Friday: VFR. N winds G15-20kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas will continue building through the day as low pressure/nor'easter meanders off the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The low will slowly track NE through the week, but will bring gales to much of the ocean waters tonight into at least Wednesday and SCA conditions elsewhere. Have extended the Gale Warning through Wednesday early evening and also added the nearshore ocean from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet tonight through Wednesday. Uncertainty increases Wednesday night, but there is potential for gales to persist on the nearshore and offshore ocean zones into Thursday morning. Have held off on any further extension. SCA conditions will otherwise persist through the end of the week and first half of the weekend on the ocean.

Seas will build to 8 to 14 ft on the ocean through Wednesday with potential of 3-5 ft seas on the Sound, highest across Eastern Sound due to swells. Seas will then gradually subside later Thursday into Friday, but may not fall below 5 ft until sometime on Saturday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-340- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ332-355. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ380-383-385.