textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Shower chance for this evening / tonight. Low chance of an isolated t-storm N&W. No impacts expected.

2) Lowering humidity during Friday with dry and pleasant weather through Saturday.

3) Wet weather increasingly likely for the second half of the weekend. High uncertainty as to whether it remains unsettled into Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

During Saturday night as high pressure departs the New England coast a warm front will approach from the west-southwest. This will bring more clouds Saturday night and the likelihood of rain towards Sunday morning. Maintaining likely PoPs and also have categorical PoPs throughout the day Sunday, with PoPs trailing off from NW to SE Sunday night. Afterwards, forecast confidence remains below average at this time with uncertainty around the eventual positioning of the frontal boundary. The latest trend in the NWP global and AI guidance has the boundary getting further south than previous guidance. Thus, Monday may just feature a good deal of clouds with perhaps the bulk of the shower activity remaining south of the area. This theme continues into mid week, with some deterministic guidance bringing rain back into the region later Tuesday. PoPs may have to be raised for Tue and Wed in future forecast packages if the ECMWF guidance is correct. Temperatures during this time period should average slightly below normal, especially daytime temperatures with guidance indicating an onshore northeast to east flow.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: A few possible showers, mainly east of NYC terminals early. MVFR or lower possible in the morning, but mainly VFR.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night-Sunday Night: Showers move in late Saturday night, then become widespread Sunday into Sunday night. A slight chance of thunderstorms. MVFR or lower possible at times. Southerly wind gusts near 15-20 kt Sunday and Sunday night.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with possible showers. NE wind gusts near 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Mainly sub advisory conditions through today and tonight, although a brief period of 20 kt gusts are likely for the western ocean waters into the western south shore bays late this afternoon and early this evening. Otherwise expect prevailing sub advisory conditions through Friday as the winds turn more out of the north. Towards early Saturday morning marginal small craft gusts of 20 to 25 kt develops on an NE flow. This should subside towards towards the afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. A better chance at prevailing and more widespread small craft conditions develops during the day Sunday and carrying through much of the time through Monday night.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on all ocean beaches today, especially with a SE swell under an increasing southerly wind wave this afternoon. The winds turn offshore and out of the N/NW on Friday. A moderate risk should linger through the morning, with the risk trending towards low later in the day.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.