textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A round of wet weather Saturday and Saturday evening.

2. Mainly dry on Sunday, followed by another round of rain Sunday night and during a portion of Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a predominantly dry day today, another shortwave will round the longwave trough in the east during the first half of the weekend on Saturday. This shortwave feature has consistently been progged by NWP and AI global guidance, with the higher res convective allowing models now advertising much of the same. Thus, confidence has increased around wet conditions during Saturday and Saturday evening. The best forcing appears to be centered around Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening. NWP consensus guidance is pointing towards a half inch of rain on average. Some guidance hints at at slightly higher totals along with a hint of elevated instability. With a southerly flow off the colder ocean the lower levels will remain stable, thus just a slight chance of thunder due to a minimal amount of elevated instability. Clouds will keep temperatures a bit below normal Saturday. The shortwave exits Saturday night with NVA and dry advection late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another frontal system approaches late in the weekend. Mother's Day looks to have a pleasant start, with clouds arriving in the afternoon from west to east. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer and a touch above normal on Mother's Day on a WSW flow. There remain some timing difference with NWP and AI guidance on how quickly the front progresses. Going with a mainly dry day on Sunday with shower chances increasing very late Sunday afternoon further west, and then further east into the evening as the front draws closer. Widespread likely PoPs get introduced later Sunday night and carry into Monday morning before the front pushes offshore for late Monday. This looks like another non impactful, but beneficial rainfall for the region.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Saturday: Showers, with slight chance of late day thunder. MVFR cond expected, IFR possible. S winds 15G20-25kt at KISP and 10-15G20kt at the NYC metros/KBDR.KGON. Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with chance of a late day shower at KSWF. SW winds G15-20kt at the NYC metros.

Sunday night: Showers with MVFR or lower cond, first in the evening at KSWF/KHPN, then elsewhere after midnight.

Monday: Showers with MVFR or lower cond, tapering off during the late afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Occasional gusts of 20-25 kt take place today on a W wind, especially for many of the nearshore zones. Relatively light winds can be expected tonight, with sub advisory conditions prevailing through early Saturday morning. An increasing S wind takes shape Saturday with small craft conditions developing towards midday on the ocean waters and the southern and eastern bays of LI, and shortly thereafter for eastern portions of LI Sound. Sub advisory gusts of closer to 20 kt are likely for the western non-ocean waters. Sub advisory conditions should then take shape Saturday evening from west to east across the non- ocean waters, with the ocean waters maintaining primarily 5 ft seas into a portion of Sunday morning. Marginal small craft seas likely linger on the eastern ocean through Sunday, otherwise sub advisory conditions prevail. Behind a cold front during the second half of Monday a period of marginal small craft conditions are possible on a N to NW wind, with similar conditions continuing into Tuesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331- 332-340. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ353-355.