textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from last update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost conditions for areas well N&W of NYC tonight.

2) Elevated risk of fire spread across portions of the region on Sunday.

3) Moderating temps for Monday, rising to 10 to 15 degrees above seasonable on Tuesday.

4) A slow-moving, strong frontal system will bring potential for periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday Night.

KEY MESSAGE 4

Models in good agreement with closed SW US upper low phasing with broad northern stream trough across north Central US early to mid week. This will likely dig and deepen into a -(2 to 3) STD Central US/Mid Mississippi river valley 500hpa trough by midweek, which gradually sliding to the east coast late week.

At the surface, this will result in a slow moving frontal system (with a series of low pressure waves along it) sliding towards the area mid to late week. This will likely bring periods of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms Wed aft into Thu Night. Potential for a period of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms Wed Night into Thu Night in response to deep layered lift of +(2 to 3) STD PWATS (and weakly unstable airmass) ahead of negatively tilting trough axis with moisture convergence ahead/along of primary low pressure development.

Ensemble probabilities of 1" of precip in 24hr are low at this point, but based on synoptic set-up and potential slow progress of front the potential is there for these probs to trend upwards. This is reinforced by the 00z CSU-MLP run indicating a marginal probability of severe tstms and excessive rainfall. More details as we progress through the mid week period.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday Night: VFR. A few WNW gusts 20-25 kt possible early.

Monday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-25 kt, especially afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. A shower possible with MVFR NW of NYC terminals at night. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt in the afternoon, increasing to 25- 30 kt near the coast in the evening and night.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with showers. A slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. S-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. S-SW flow 15-20 kt. S-SW wind gusts 25-30 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the first half of tonight under a weak pressure gradient. Strong low pressure heading towards the Canadian Maritimes late tonight into Sunday will bring marginal W/NW SCA gusts to the nearshore waters during the day, with marginal ocean seas from a combo of 2-3ft easterly swells and westerly wind wave.

Marginal S SCA winds develops on Mon with increased chances for SCA seas on the ocean waters. SCA conditions expected on the ocean (likely all nearshore waters as well) Tuesday through Thursday with strengthening and persistent SW winds ahead of an approaching frontal system. Potential for periods of low- end gales Tue aft through Thu.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ005-006. NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ067>070. NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ002. MARINE...None.