textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Possible gales for outer ocean waters late Sunday into Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure, dry, near seasonable temperatures through Saturday night.

2) Low pressure approaches Sunday through early Monday, widespread rain, heavy at times, minor flooding potential, possible high surf.

3) Showers possible Tuesday into Tuesday night with a chance of a thunderstorm as well.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Shortwave sharpens a passing longwave trough aloft Tuesday into Wednesday. This will help push a cold front across the area probably sometime during Tuesday night with best chances of showers being Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low confidence at this time for potential impacts being that this is 5-6 days away, but models show enough CAPE (albeit mainly elevated) for a chance of thunder, and shear profiles would support at least a chance of strong gusts should there be enough CAPE.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday Afternoon-Night: VFR.

Sunday: Showers developing through the day with MVFR/IFR likely in the afternoon and evening. Increasing E/SE winds 10-15g20kt afternoon and evening.

Monday: Showers and MVFR or lower ending early, becoming VFR late morning into the afternoon.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers. Isolated thunderstorm possible NYC west.

Wednesday:

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Initially, high pressure is in control with below SCA conditions for all waters. This continues through Saturday night. Then on Sunday, SCA conditions will develop again first with the ocean waters, then for some of the nearshore waters Sunday afternoon. Sunday night, SCA conditions forecast for all waters with the wind gusts near 25 to 30 kt. Ocean seas forecast to build to near 7 to 10 ft Sunday into Sunday night.

There is some potential for gales at least on the outer ocean late Sunday into Sunday night, which is highlighted in the HWO. Otherwise, lower chances of gales farther north for rest of the waters, with those waters likely staying within SCA range for wind gusts.

Winds trend down by early Monday below SCA thresholds but ocean seas will likely stay elevated in SCA range Monday into Monday night.

Another chance of advisory conditions occurs late day Tuesday into Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Looks like all ocean waters and most non-ocean waters would reach advisory criteria.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.