textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains mostly on track, with only minor changes in timing. The most important change will be later precip arrival daytime Fri, which means wintry precip no longer anticipated at the onset inland.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Monitoring for possible black ice overnight into early this morning and across central/eastern Long Island.

2) Mild Friday afternoon and night with some light rain.

3) Wet Weekend: A period of rainfall associated with a frontal system Saturday through the first half of Sunday. A few moderate to heavy downpours are possible, but flooding concerns remain minimal, at this time.

4) The Thaw Doesn't Last: Anomalously mild temperatures are expected through Sunday, with high temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal in most spots especially on Friday and Saturday. Some record high minimum temperatures may be approached Friday night. A cold front will bring temps back down Sunday night into the beginning of next week, but still above normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Temps will be lowering early this morning to near or below freezing outside of the NYC metro area. With dewpoints not much lower and winds diminishing, there may be some potential for black ice formation mainly inland and across eastern Long Island late until about 9 AM Thu. SPS has been issued to address this.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will start off on the mild side today, with highs mostly 45-50. A return flow with high pressure off the coast will allow temperatures on Fri to rise to the upper 40s to mid 50s daytime Fri, then only fall back to the upper 30s inland and lower/mid 40s elsewhere. Record high minimum temperatures are possible at a few locations Friday night.

Little precip is expected with a frontal system moving into the area Fri afternoon/night. This later timing means p-type should be all rain. Rain may even end for a time as the front sinks to the south and stalls off the Mid Atlantic coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Heights rise aloft on Saturday as a shortwave aloft and its associated surface low exit into eastern Canada. The front the passed to the south Fri night should start to lift back north as a warm front daytime Sat, but remain just south or lift only into Long Island as a wave of low pressure forms along it near the Mid Atlantic coast and then passes over or just S of Long Island Sat night. Isentropic lift N of the warm front along with a 40-50 kt southerly H8 jet transporting in deep layer moisture from the south with PW 1.25" should lead to periods of moderate rainfall Sat into Sat evening. A few rumbles of thunder may also be possible across eastern Long Island Sat evening via weak elevated instability as the wave passes by. Rainfall of about 1 to 1.5 inches likely, with the highest amts across Long Island and SE CT.

KEY MESSAGE 4... A secondary cold front pushing through from late morning into early afternoon on Sunday should bring a quick end to the rain and usher in colder air from Sunday night into Mon night on a brisk W-NW flow. Lows Sunday night will range from the 20s to lower 30s, and highs on Mon in the upper 30s/lower 40s, which is still a few degrees above normal. Return flow develops Tue into Wed ahead of another frontal system, which should lead to a return of somewhat milder temps, with highs in the 40s both days.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Late tonight: VFR.

Friday: Rain likely, mainly in the afternoon and night. MVFR, lowering to IFR at night. S winds G20kt in the afternoon. LLWS also possible in the afternoon and evening.

Saturday: Rain with IFR likely, MVFR possible. SE winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. LLWS possible along the coast in the evening.

Sunday: Chance of rain and MVFR/IFR mainly in the morning. W winds G25-30kt.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA remains in effect for the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet for the predawn hours, for hazardous seas. Then with high pressure building across, winds and seas will be below below advisory levels throughout from daytime Thu until Fri afternoon. As S winds increase ahead of an approaching frontal sys Fri night, minimal SCA cond expected on the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet, with gusts to 25 kt and seas 5-6 ft.

After a lull daytime Sat, SCA conditions will redevelop on the ocean waters late Sat night. By Sunday afternoon, all waters should be at SCA levels, with some gale force gusts possible on the ocean waters Sunday night.

Conditions fall below SCA levels on the non-ocean waters late day Mon into Mon night, but should linger on the ocean Mon night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ350.