textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Blizzard warnings are effect for the entire forecast area. Orange and Putnam counties in New York were added.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and high winds from late this afternoon into Monday afternoon. Blizzard conditions are expected tonight into the first half of Monday.

2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Monday.

3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the 40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt.

KEY MESSAGE 3

There may be a few frontal systems that move across in a mostly zonal flow mid to late next week. Precip chances have come up a bit late in the week with a light snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday, possibly mixing with rain at the coast. Chances remain for mostly rain for the end of the week.

Temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures then trend closer to normal the rest of the week. This will allow for snowmelt each day and with mostly sub- freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent refreeze of snow melt.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: MVFR or lower in snow. N winds G30-40 kt.

Total Forecast Snow Amounts (Sunday-Monday)

KSWF: 16 inches KHPN: 18 inches KBDR: 17 inches KGON: 19 inches NYC terminals: 20-23 inches KISP: 23 inches

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday: MVFR or lower in snow or rain/snow mix possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Storm warnings are in effect for all waters except western LI Sound and NY Harbor, where there is a gale warning.

A major coastal storm will take shape along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday, rapidly deepening some 25 to 30 mb by early Monday morning. The low will drop to around 970mb as it reaches the 40N/70W benchmark Monday morning. Gales and storm force gusts are increasing likely with seas building as high as 20 feet on the ocean and 5 to 10 ft on LI Sound (highest eastern sound). Conditions ramp down to SCA on all waters for Mon night.

SCA potential remains Tuesday through Thursday on the ocean, but should remain below on the non-waters will have SCA potential for wind gusts Tuesday and mainly below SCA wind gusts Tuesday night through Thursday.

CLIMATE

With the potential major snowstorm Sunday into Monday, there is the potential for some snowfall records to be broken. Here are the records for Sunday and Monday for the climate sites:

Sun 2/22 Mon 2/23

Central Park, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972 LaGuardia, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972 John F Kennedy, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987 Newark, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987 Islip, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987 Bridgeport, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Monday for CTZ005>012. Coastal Flood Warning from midnight tonight to 5 AM EST Monday for CTZ009-010. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Monday for CTZ011-012. NY...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Monday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Warning from midnight tonight to 5 AM EST Monday for NYZ071-073-078-176-177. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Monday for NYZ072-074-075-178. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for NYZ079-081. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ080-179. NJ...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Monday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EST Monday for NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE...Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ335-338.