textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds in through this afternoon before moving offshore tonight. A cold front approaches tonight and moves across the area on Sunday. High pressure then builds back in Sunday night through Monday. Another frontal system likely impacts the region late Monday night through Tuesday. High pressure returns on Wednesday with with possibly another frontal system for late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Forecast on track this morning.

Key Messages:

* Winds will continue to weaken through this morning as high pressure building over the east coast.

* Dry with seasonable temperatures through tonight.

The strong pressure gradient between the departing front to the east and building high pressure to our west will relax through the morning. Winds continue weakening after day break as a high pressure ridge axis settles over the northeast. A broad SW flow aloft may bring in some clouds today, but overall a partly cloudy day is expected with highs reaching the upper 30s inland and lower 40s near the coast.

The high pressure ridge axis moves offshore tonight ahead of a fast approaching cold front. The parent low associated with this front moves well to the north across southern Quebec. Any significant lift ahead of the system also passes well to our north. Increasing clouds along with a slight increase in S-SW winds are expected tonight, but conditions will remain dry. Lows range from the upper 20s and lower 30s inland to the lower and middle 30s close to the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages:

* Dry conditions continue through Monday evening.

The aforementioned dry cold front moves across the area on Sunday. A slight warm up is expected with highs a few degrees warmer compared to Saturday in the low to mid 40s. SW winds to start the day will shift to the NW behind the front and become gusty, generally 25-30 mph, although a few spots could peak closer to 35 mph late in the day and evening. Cold advection behind the front will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s for Sunday night. It will remain breezy with potential of gusts 20-25 mph. High pressure returns on Monday with weaker winds and colder conditions temperatures only in the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Messages:

* A light mix of rain and snow possible late Monday night into early Tuesday.

* Temperatures become more seasonable by mid-week, potentially above normal to end the week.

A progressive pattern continues in the long term. The first system to impact the area occurs late Monday night into Tuesday. The mid-level energy passes well north of the area. Parent low pressure will likely pass over New England or just to the north on Tuesday. The associated frontal system approaches Monday night. Guidance has been signaling a band of precip associated with warm advection to move across the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The colder and drier air that is in place ahead of the system creates some concern at the onset for a chance of light snow before day break Tuesday and then transitioning to a mixture of light snow/light rain or even plain light rain at the coast Tuesday morning. Increasing SW flow Tuesday morning will help bring in warmer temperatures which should help transition precip from south to north. While there is potential for light snow or a mixture of light snow and rain, precip amounts and intensity are likely to be on the light side. This will limit any significant impacts. Most of the precip associated with the system pushes east of the area Tuesday afternoon with low pressure passing offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday.

High pressure briefly builds into the area Wednesday. Another progressive shortwave may pass nearby on Christmas Day or Friday, but guidance is much too variable and inconsistent to hone down any details at this time. The overall pattern however leans more towards any precip with this system in the form of rain, if any were to occur.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Monday: VFR.

Monday night: Chance of light snow after midnight. MVFR cond likely, IFR possible.

Tuesday: Snow likely with IFR cond at KHPN/KSWF in the morning, then a rain/snow mix in the afternoon. A rain/snow mix elsewhere (with MVFR cond likely/IFR possible) should become all rain in the afternoon. SW winds G20kt.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt, becoming NW.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds will continue subsiding below SCA levels this morning. Seas should also subside the rest of the day. However, it is looking likely that the ocean seas may not fall much below 5 ft before building again tonight. Winds will also increase this evening into tonight with SCA conditions likely on Sunday. Therefore, there is the SCA in effect on the ocean through Sunday. There is also a chance for an occasional gust to 35 kt on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet tonight.

Winds on the non-ocean waters likely increase again to SCA levels late tonight into Sunday, so SCA is in effect for these marine zones for Sunday. The near 25 kt gusts tonight might be more occasional in frequency but are expected to be frequent on Sunday. There is also a low chance for gales late Sunday into Sunday night on the ocean and will continue to mention in the HWO. Winds weaken on Monday and ocean seas should also subside below 5 ft. Conditions remain below SCA levels on Monday night, then increase again to SCA on Tuesday, gradually subsiding into Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.