textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost Advisory issued for tonight for portions of western Long Island and NE NJ.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Areas of frost are expected tonight into Thursday morning.

2. Fire weather concerns increase somewhat over the next week, mainly due to low daytime RH and lack of wetting rainfall.

3. Temperatures closer to normal this weekend will experience significant warmup Mon-Wed next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Good model agreement continues on broad troughing over central Canada and then nrn Plains moving ewd across ern Canada and the Northeast Fri into Sat, which should send a cold front through Sat morning. Prior to fropa, temps should already have begun a warming trend, with highs 65-70 from NYC north/west (5-10 degrees above normal), and mid 50s to lower 60s for Long Island and most of S CT (near normal). Air mass behind the front will be only slightly cooler than that for the weekend as strong Canadian high pressure builds across, with highs mostly from the mid 50s to mid 60s, still a few degrees above normal from NYC north/west.

A more appreciable warming trend should take place early next week as a return flow develops on the back side of the high as it departs out into the Atlantic, and as a warm front passes to the N. Highs on Mon should reach the mid/upper 70s from NYC north/west and the 60s east of there. Even warmer temps expected on Tue, upper 70s/lower 80s from NYC north/west and 60 to lower 70s east. These numbers are 15-20 degrees above normal north/west and about 5-10 degrees above normal east.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: VFR. There is a chance of MVFR to IFR stratus and fog at the coastal terminals after 06Z.

Friday: Chance of MVFR to IFR early in the morning at the coastal terminals, otherwise VFR.

Friday Night: Potential for MVFR or lower in rain showers. Highest chances north and west of NYC terminals.

Saturday: VFR. NW gust 20 to 25 kt possible.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Conditions remain below SCA criteria with nearby high pressure through at least Friday morning. Increasing SW flow ahead of a cold fropa Friday afternoon should build ocean seas above 5 ft, and wind gusts may approach or exceed 25 kt on the coastal waters during this period, before relaxing Friday night.

Hazardous ocean seas of 5-6 ft (mainly SE swell) should persist into daytime Sat, then settle down from Sat night into Sunday night. Then after a warm frontal passage on Mon, S-SW winds increase to 20-25 kt on the ocean waters, with seas building to 5-7 ft.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ177-179. NJ...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...None.