textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hazardous wind chills continue into early this morning.

2) Light snow/wintry mix possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.

3) Temperatures continue below normal through the end of the week, though not as cold.

4) Chance of rain or snow late next weekend into the beginning of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 4

Both the dynamical and AI global models continue to show a wide range of solutions and run to run variability of low pressure impacting the east coast late next weekend into early next week. The cross polar flow we have seen of late becomes cutoff as the southern branch of the polar jet becomes dominant across the lower 48 during this time. In addition, short term signals AO, NAO, PNA all showing a breakdown of the blocking pattern that has kept the area unseasonably cold and stormy over the western Atlantic. Low track will be critical with marginally cold airmass in place.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday PM: Mainly VFR, MVFR possible with low chance of light snow or wintry mix through early evening.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25kt.

Thursday through Saturday: VFR. NW winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean and a Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect for all waters except the South Shore Bays, though the non-ocean waters fall off early this morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected by late this afternoon or tonight for all waters.

SCA conditions will be possible on the ocean waters Wednesday into Wednesday night in a NW flow following a cold frontal passage. Winds and seas subside Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds in from the west.

CLIMATE

Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934 KBDR: 5/1963 KNYC: -15/1934 KLGA: 7/1979 KJFK: 8/1979 KISP: 5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all time record lows for those sites. Temperatures are not expected to fall to those levels.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355. Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-353-355.