textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and increasingly mild conditions continue into mid week.

2) Increasing likelihood for a wetting rain late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The models remain in good agreement that a frontal sys will approach the area on Thu, and slowly pass thru the area on Fri. This would bring rain to the area as moisture transport aligns with llvl convergence. The main upr low lags behind the front, hence the slow passage.

A second round of rain or shwrs also possible mainly for Sat as the main upr low swings thru. This phase of the fcst is a bit more uncertain, as some of the modeling takes the H5 low a bit too far north, therefore cutting off pcpn from the SW with the dry slot.

NBM pops looked good for the rain chances so no adjustments were made to the output. Peak chances centered around Fri with pops in the 70-80 range.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday: VFR, SW winds.

Wednesday: VFR, SW to S winds.

Thursday: VFR more likely early, with the probability of MVFR or lower higher late in the day and at night for showers with MVFR or lower cond developing.

Friday: Sub VFR possible in showers.

Saturday: Improving to VFR early.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-SCA conds continue on all waters through the day on Thursday as high pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient.

Next chance of SCA conditions on the ocean Thu night into Sat as a frontal system impacts the waters. Potential for the swell to get into the far ern Sound Fri as flow gains an ely component.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.