textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Flood Watch has been issued for northeast NJ, NYC, Southern Westchester and western Long Island.

Confidence in heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding has increased as well as total rainfall amounts.

The SPC has lifted the marginal risk of severe weather into portions of our area including most of northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and potential thunderstorms move through the area this afternoon through the evening. A period of heavy rainfall is possible, particularly for northeast NJ, NYC, southern Westchester and Western Long Island, where a Flood Watch is now in effect. For the Watch area, peak hourly rainfall rates could reach around 2 inches with total rainfall amounts expected to be between 1.5 and 2.5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.

2) Unsettled weather is expected again this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Guidance continues to struggle with the next wave of low pressure for the first half of the weekend as the upper level trough become negatively tilted. Regardless, another period of moderate to heavy rainfall is possible. The WPC continued to include the entire area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.

A cold front approaches on Sunday and will bring a chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. CIPS and CSU MLP continue to hint at the potential for severe thunderstorms, but it is still too far out for any specifics.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: Mainly VFR. A few showers and MVFR possible during the day. Higher chances of showers and MVFR late at night.

Saturday: Showers likely. Possible thunderstorms. MVFR to IFR at times.

Sunday: A chance of showers. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at times.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions generally continue through the middle of next week. However, with some uncertainty in strength of a wave of low pressure tonight into Friday, brief 25kt gusts can not be ruled out.

Rip Currents: There is a low risk of rip currents today and Friday given lack of significant winds and weak swell components. There is potential for forecast winds to trend higher for tonight into Friday, but this would be out of the E/NE which should not be enough to increase the risk level.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight for NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179. NJ...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None.