textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A frontal system brings light rain late tonight into Wednesday, with milder weather returning mid to late week.

2) Conditions look potentially unsettled over the weekend, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Not much change for the weekend from the earlier forecast. Upper air pattern heading into the weekend will a feature a weakening upper ridge just west of the area, sandwiched between an upper low over the Northern Plains and another east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, a surface high builds over the area on Friday, following what appears to be a back door cold front. A warm front associated with the western system then moves nearby Friday night or Saturday. This results in a strengthening boundary in close proximity to the area. This will be a key player in determining the coverage and extent of rain this weekend.

The 12Z operational global models still indicate that the surface ridge could be strong enough to keep eastern areas, in particular eastern Long Island and southeast CT on the drier side, with higher probabilities of rain back toward NYC and northern NJ. There will be a tight gradient somewhere close to the area, going from rain to no rain. Also, there is decent agreement in a persistent easterly flow which will keep high temperatures in the 50s both days, especially for eastern and coastal areas. This results in cloudy conditions with a chance of rain everywhere Saturday and likely Pops for NYC north and west, but decreasing on Sunday as a frontal wave and boundary get suppressed to the south by strengthening high pressure.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday afternoon after 18Z: IFR possible at KGON. Otherwise, MVFR cond throughout, becoming VFR after 21Z at the NYC metros.

Wednesday night: VFR at the NYC metros. IFR possible most of the night at KGON. MVFR cond linger into the evening elsewhere north/east of the NYC metros.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers with MVFR cond in the afternoon and at night.

Saturday: IFR possible with chance of showers. Low confidence.

Sunday: MVFR possible mainly in the morning with slight chance of showers. Low confidence.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

With the approach of a frontal system late tonight into Wednesday southerly gusts will be marginally at SCA levels across the western ocean waters, west of Moriches Inlet, and Long Island south shore bays by late tonight through Wednesday and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. East of Moriches Inlet and the Long Island eastern bays and eastern Long Island Sound may see gusts approaching 25 kt by mid to late Wednesday afternoon, and a SCA may be needed there. Mixing may be be limited tonight into Wednesday with warmer air moving into the region along with showers. After the passage of the frontal system winds and seas will be below SCA levels on the waters Wednesday night through Saturday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ345-353. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.