textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather expected tonight into Friday with slow moving low pressure. Potential for heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms, mainly on Thursday.

2) Unseasonably warm this weekend into next week. Cold water safety concerns for this weekend with good boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Pattern change coming up for this weekend into next week. Once the trough shifts east, flow becomes zonal with an eventual ridge building in. Stuck close to NBM and WPC guidance for temperatures which shows several days of above normal temperatures.

While temperatures this weekend will likely top out in the 80s, dewpoints stay down in the 40s and 50s. This will give the air a more comfortable feel. Additionally, there are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A Marine Weather Statement will likely be issued at the end of this week.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday afternoon: Showers with possible thunderstorms. MVFR or lower conditions possible.

Thursday night: Showers possible with MVFR conditions at times.

Friday: Chance of showers. MVFR or lower conditions possible. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.

Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A Gale Warning remains in effect through this evening for the NY Harbor, South Shore Bays and the ocean waters from Sandy Hook to Moriches Inlet out 20 NM. This is due to 35 kt gusts from a coastal jet. All other waters are under a Small Craft Advisory with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Additionally, 5 to 7 ft seas are possible by late this afternoon for the ocean waters.

Conditions thereafter generally remain under SCA criteria. There will be a brief period Friday and then Saturday night where seas could touch 5 ft on the ocean waters.SCA ocean seas are possible Thu Night into Friday in response to E/SE swells from offshore low and exiting coastal low.

There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A Marine Weather Statement will likely be issued at the end of this week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332- 335-340-350. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-345-353- 355.