textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonable this weekend.

2) Turning unsettled Sunday night through Thursday of next week. There is the potential for impacts, but confidence of impacts remains low this far out in time.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A mid and upper level ridge sets up to the west-southwest late this weekend and into Monday. A cold front approaches from the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes along the northern periphery of the ridge Sunday night. As the ridge works east Sunday night through Wednesday of next week there is good Global NWP and AI agreement with the mid level mass fields. Our area will remain on the northern periphery of upper level ridging. This should allow the warm front to progress east and likely just to the north or on the northern edge of the CWA into Tuesday and Wednesday, which has often been the case this warm season thus far. The area will be more unstable immediately south of the warm/stationary boundary, but our area should remain close enough to boundary to allow a good amount of synoptic scale/mid level forcing. This suggests a period of unsettled weather with the potential for some periods of convectively induced rainfall. There may also be some favorable jet dynamics to enhance precipitation for Sunday night into Monday, but the NAM and GFS differ on the location of the jet streak. While there remains forecast uncertainty this far out, it appears the region will have the potential for convectively induced heavy rain and embedded thunderstorm activity. WPC currently has the area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Monday and Tuesday, and SPC placed the area in a 15 percent chance of severe weather on Wednesday which is rare to see that far out in time. So the middle of next week will bear watching as PWATs are progged to climb into the 1.5-2 inch neighborhood by Tuesday into Thursday.

The associated cold front approaches Wednesday night and the cold front moves through on Thursday, continuing the chances for unsettled weather through at least this time frame.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday night: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers afternoon into night. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub advisory conditions prevail this weekend and into early next week with ocean seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft. High pressure settling over the waters will result in a weak pressure gradient, and thus light winds and diminished seas.

Occasional/brief gusts to 25 kt are possible late Sunday into Sunday night likely associated with the NY Bight coastal jet.

Marginal small craft conditions become more likely Wednesday night into Thursday with seas likely building to 4 to 5 ft in an increasing southerly flow.

Rip Currents:

Weak flow and seas around 2 ft will lead to a low rip current risk today. Increasing S-SW winds and building seas to 3 ft Sunday afternoon will bring a moderate rip current risk to ocean beaches.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.