textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A weak surface trough extending north from low pressure moving off the southern Mid Atlantic coast will impact the area into this morning. Weak high pressure will then move into the area tonight into Sunday. A strong cold front moves through Sunday night. High pressure builds from the west Monday, remaining in control through Tuesday. A couple of low pressure systems may impact the area the mid to late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key points:

* Light wintry mix across the area this morning, with potential for patchy freezing rain/drizzle, mainly across interior Connecticut.

An inverted trough is currently stretching into our area from low pressure passing well offshore. There has been enough convergence for some scattered precipitation to develop.

This activity shifts east this morning and will be east of the area this afternoon. As temperatures rise this morning any freezing rain/drizzle threat is coming to an end. Interior portions of Connecticut are the only remaining locations at or below freezing with precipitation moving through so this is the only spot still under a freezing drizzle/wintry mix threat.

Weak high pressure starts to build in later in the day.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Key points:

* A cold front moves through Sunday night with another very cold airmass building in behind it. Highs Monday look to top out in the mid 20s to low 30s, with lows Monday night expected to be down in the single digits and teens.

Weak high pressure remains in control through Sunday and then a cold front moves through Sunday night. Guidance came in drier and now keeps PoPs out of the area for the frontal passage. As high pressure builds in behind the front the pressure gradient briefly tightens into Monday morning and results in 25 to 30 mph gusts. These winds combined with temperatures well below normal will result in wind chill values during the day in the teens.

The high moves overhead Monday night. Have stuck with the NBM for now with lows, but if forecast sky cover trends lower there is a chance we can see even lower temperatures. Current forecast is upper single digits to lower teens across the interior and mostly mid to upper teens elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure pushes off the Northeast Coast Tuesday, allowing a warm front to approach from the southwest and low pressure to move across the Great Lakes and pass north of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Therefore, dry conditions are in store from Monday through Tuesday, with just a slight chance of precipitation for portions of the forecast area Tuesday night. The warm front may lift north during the day Wednesday as another fast moving low pressure system approaches from the west, farther south than the previous one. This too is expected to pass north, rounding the base of the upper trough that is in place Wednesday night. This may give the region a better chance for precipitation Wednesday into Thursday, but it looks to be light. The associated cold front looks to push through Wednesday night, allowing high pressure to build in for Thursday. Another quick moving system approaches from the west late in the week, but there is a great deal of uncertainty among the models as to the track and strength of the low.

Warmer, but still well below normal temperatures expected for Wednesday, with highs in the upper 20s to around 40 across the area (warmer for coastal areas). Near normal temperatures on Wednesday with the warm frontal passage, but then slightly cooler for Thursday with the cold frontal passage.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday PM: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt developing at night.

Monday: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible w/ chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley. S-SW gusts 20-25kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions through the weekend with a weak pressure gradient over the waters.

SCA conditions are possible through much of next week beginning Monday as multiple low pressure systems could impact the area.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds late morning/midday high tide cycle in spots along the south shore back bays of Nassau and Queens, tidal waterways of NE NJ, the SW CT coastline, and at Shinnecock and Montauk out east. A coastal flood statement may eventually be issued to address this.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.