textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the area overnight and pass south on Monday. An upper level disturbance will ride along the front to the north Monday into Monday night while the front remains just south. The front will lift back into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as low pressure moves east from the Great Lakes into upstate New York and New England. High pressure will build in later Wednesday and remain in control through at least Thursday night. A frontal system looks to impact the area late this week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

BKN-OVC stratocu deck dominates across most of the area except for Long Island attm where coverage is more scattered. These clouds should scatter out across the board late tonight. Then a weak frontal boundary to the north will sink southward into the area later tonight, with one lobe of high pressure to its north building into upstate NY and another remaining over the Mid Atlantic. As this occurs, clouds ahead of the upper level disturbance that will ride the front on Mon should start to arrive late tonight well NW of NYC.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* A weak upper level clipper system will bring another round of light snow Mon into Mon evening while the front continues sinking to our south. * A stronger clipper will approach from the west Tue into Tue night, bringing the front back into the area Tue night and accompanied by some light freezing rain inland. The clipper system passing across on Mon should bring chance PoP mainly in the afternoon/eve to areas north of NYC, with slight chance for most of NE NJ, NYC and Long Island. Any snow accumulation should be light, a dusting to half an inch, but would not be surprised to see isolated spots well inland near the I-84 corridor getting closer to an inch. Temps on Mon will top out in the 30s in the afternoon, then fall to the 20s and lower 30s at night.

The front will still be slowly sagging into the area on Mon, and a weak wave of low pressure developing along it and scooting off to the east Mon night should force it a little farther south. Daytime Tue looks dry and mostly cloudy, with precip from the next system holding off mostly until night. Temps will be warming on Tue, with daytime highs in the lower 40s, so expect p-type for most of NE NJ and all of NYC/Long Island/coastal CT to be rain. Warmer air coming in aloft while sfc temps inland fall to aob freezing Tue night should however lead to some light snow and/or freezing rain for interior NE NJ, lower Hudson Valley, and S CT (mainly near or north/west of the I-287 to Merritt Pkwy corridor). Any snow accumulations and/or ice accretion should be light, with little to no snow and just a light glaze of ice. AI-GFS suggests more in the way of QPF, which if correct would lead to snowfall amts closer to an inch and ice closer to 1/10 of an inch.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Points:

* Temperatures will run about 10 degrees above normal for much of the long term period, with several days where high temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

* A frontal system looks to impact the area late week into the weekend. This is expected to be a mainly plain rain event with gusty winds.

NBM was followed closely with minor tweaks.

After a shortwave moves through on Wednesday, heights will gradually increase straight through the end of the week/start of the weekend. This will aid in the warming trend that is expected where temps will run about 10 degrees above normal.

Guidance is starting to agree more on a frontal system impacting the area towards the end of this period. A strong area of low pressure will track through the Great Lakes with potential secondary low development over northern New England. Given this track and pattern, this will likely be an all plain rain event for us. Latest NBM guidance has about a 20% chance of seeing an inch of liquid total for this event.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Late Monday Night: VFR except at KGON with MVFR to IFR possible with a snow/rain mix ending a couple of hours after 06Z Tuesday, becoming VFR toward morning.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of rain at night, chance of wintry mix at KSWF. MVFR or lower possible at night.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Possible rain and MVFR or lower early. Possible wintry mix early for KSWF and MVFR or lower early.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible late at night with a chance of rain.

Friday: MVFR or lower at times with increasing chances of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Could see NW winds gust briefly to 25 kt just before daybreak Mon on the ocean S of Montauk. SCA will not be issued for these due to brief duration/sparse coverage, and seas no higher than 2 or 3 ft.

A brief window of 5-ft seas is possible across the ocean waters Wed night. Quiet conditions then expected until winds and seas increase with the approach of a frontal system at the end of the week. SCA cond will be possible on all waters this weekend.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.