textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes since previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms through much of the forecast period with more of a focus for Tuesday into Tuesday night as well as Wednesday into Wednesday night. Marginal flood risk especially Tuesday into Tuesday night and slight flood risk for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Possible strong to severe thunderstorms as well, mainly for western portions of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 1

Basically, a series of shortwaves move along the NE edge of a ridge across the local area into this week. Meanwhile, the ridge stays centered well to our south and west. At the surface, a series of weak areas of low pressure move across the local region into this week.

There is not much in the way of instability, except for western parts of the region late this afternoon into early this evening for the midweek period. The midweek period overall has a larger signal for widespread instability. The LREF mean surface CAPE has values around 1000 J/kg for Tuesday into Tuesday night as well as Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Models exhibit a general increase in the 850mb temperatures of a few degrees C Tuesday afternoon into early evening. 850mb temperatures roughly stay the same for Wednesday afternoon into early evening. It is the Tuesday through Wednesday night timeframe, that is conveying within the models precipitable waters near 2 inches across much of the region. The LREF mean precipitable waters is near 1.8 to 1.9 inches within this timeframe across the area.

In addition, bulk shear from models shows 35-50 kt 0-6 km AGL for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon into evening, more for the GFS than the NAM.

The probability for showers and thunderstorms remains during the forecast period. Likely POPs for parts of the region tonight, but mostly isolated to scattered. Likely POPs as well for late Monday night into early Tuesday, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, and Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Those timeframes are when shower coverage will be relatively more especially towards and within midweek. Thunderstorm chances are present more towards and during the midweek period, especially for afternoon into evening hours. This will relatively increase the severe and flood threats. At this time, flood threats are still marginal considering the uncertainty in timing and location of convection but did increase to slight on Wednesday. Areas that received convective rainfall will already be primed for next few rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night so relatively more chance for flooding. Synoptically though the midweek period has a frontal boundary within the region for more of that timeframe, Tuesday through Wednesday night and more low level thermodynamics.

With the aforementioned instability and shear, Tuesday and Wednesday look to have more possibility for strong to severe thunderstorm activity, mainly across western portions of the region. SPC already has western parts of the area in mainly marginal for Day 3 (Tuesday into Tuesday night) and slight for Day 4 (Wednesday into Wednesday night).

There is uncertainty overall with the forecast with timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms. The CAMs and forecast models have differences in their handling of the shortwaves and with the timing of convection. It will not be raining the entire time for the entire forecast region.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers in the afternoon.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with chances of showers. Showers likely early.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in possible SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

The pressure gradient across the waters into this week is not expected to be that steep. Outside of a few occasional gusts up to 25 kt on parts of the ocean into tonight, conditions on the forecast waters are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.

Rip Currents:

Increased S-SW winds and seas around 3 ft this afternoon will drive a moderate risk of rip currents along local ocean beaches for the rest of the day. The risk returns to low for Monday and Tuesday as the flow lightens and swells fall to around 2 ft.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.