textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marginal risk for flooding and marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for western parts of the region late Sunday into early Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry tonight into Sunday with above normal temperatures forecast.

2) Next main rain event will be late Sunday into Sunday night. Possible thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. Marginal risk of flooding and marginal risk of severe hail and wind with some thunderstorms.

3) Rain could linger into Monday, possibly briefing mixing with snow across parts of the interior before all precipitation ends.

4) Late Monday through Tuesday, high pressure builds in from the west, bringing a return to dry weather.

5) Another frontal system impacts the region Thursday through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 5

Another frontal system impacts the region from the Great Lakes Thursday morning through Friday night, but best chances for precipitation look to be Thursday night into Friday. However, there is still pretty good spread in solutions among the deterministic models. The GFS has two, poorly defined lows following along a frontal boundary impacting us over two days while the ECMWF has only a single one impacting us on Friday. The GDPS agrees with the ECMWF, while the ICON has a solution of its own. While mainly anticipated to be rain, differences in timing and positions of the low and cold front could lead to some snow mixing in, in some scenarios. Model solutions should converge on a more solid solution over the next few days.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Rest of Sunday: Mainly VFR, becoming MVFR or lower aft 22-00Z. Low chance of an isold embedded tstm Sun eve/ngt.

Monday: MVFR or lower, especially before 18Z. NW winds increasing to around 25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Lgt N winds becoming S.

Wednesday: VFR with S/SW flow.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR with shwrs. SW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Marine forecast on track. SCA remains on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet until 6PM. Forecast ocean seas go below 5 ft by 6PM. For tonight and Sunday, mainly below SCA conditions are forecast with exception of any thunderstorms that could give short duration higher gusts late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Ocean seas forecast are near 4 to 5 ft Sunday night into early next week. SCA chances for the ocean Sunday night into early next week but not for non-ocean waters.

Sub-SCA conditions expected under high pressure Tuesday night through Wednesday. Thursday into Friday a return to SCA conditions is possible under increased onshore SW flow.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353.