textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with the forecast through the first half of this weekend. However, some notable changes were made for the second half of the weekend. Snow chances have increased for Sunday into Sunday night as the coastal low in the latest model guidance has trended slightly closer to the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Forecast has trended down for precipitation through today. Less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall, less than a half inch of snow for NW Orange County NY.

2.) Gusty winds still expected to develop today and last into Friday. Wind chills still forecast to get into single digits late tonight into early Friday morning.

3.) Next precipitation event forecast for the first half of the upcoming weekend. Chances of rain and snow. Light accumulations up to 1 inch possible, mainly north and west of NYC.

4.) Snow possible Sunday into Sunday night with a coastal low passing offshore.

5.) Much colder air expected next week with temperatures potentially below freezing Sunday night through at least Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 5

Deep upper troughing will persist over the eastern US allowing for arctic air to funnel down into the region. Highs Monday through next Wednesday should remain below freezing with highs on Tuesday potentially not rising out of the 20s. Nighttime temperatures will likely be in the teens at night. While it is a bit early for specific details on wind chills, there is some potential for winds to combine with the cold temperatures for wind chills in the single digits to around 0 Monday night into Tuesday night. These details will be fine tined as confidence increases with respect to the magnitude of the winds over the next several days.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Late Thursday night: VFR. W wind gusts around 25 kt.

Friday: VFR. W-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR or lower at times with rain and/or snow.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in snow.

Monday: VFR. W winds gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA continues on the ocean waters with non-ocean zones still set to start SCA at 9AM this morning. From 9AM to 6PM, all waters will have SCA conditions.

The latest consensus of BUFKIT soundings indicates peak gusts late overnight into early Friday with some data showing gale force gusts across parts of the local ocean waters. The ocean remains with a gale warning for all of tonight and through Friday morning. Meanwhile, for the non-ocean waters, they will remain with SCA for all of tonight and through Friday morning.

The SCA continues for Eastern parts of Long Island Sound and the bays of Long Island into Friday afternoon, eventually ending at 4PM that afternoon. The ocean will have SCA conditions remaining once the gales end for Friday afternoon. For Friday night, the SCA conditions just likely remain for the ocean and will be mainly due to seas with SCA conditions lingering into the weekend. Non-ocean waters will likely remain below SCA thresholds Friday night through the weekend.

Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for much of early to mid next week, especially on the ocean waters. Conditions likely improve mid to late next week with the pressure gradient relaxing.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon EST Friday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.