textproduct: New York

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The ocean waters have been upgraded to a gale warning for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chance for snow showers Tuesday.

2) Well-below normal temperatures continue through this week. Advisories could eventually be needed for couple of nights.

3) Potential impactful coastal storm for the upcoming weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Deterministic and ensemble models show a piece of energy breaking off the polar vortex and shifting into the Southeast this weekend before lifting off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This would then help develop a surface low emerging off the Carolina coast during Saturday and strengthen the storm as it heads northeast, perhaps approaching the 40N/70W benchmark at some point Sunday or Sunday night.

Did not deviate from NBM PoPs (20-30%) from Saturday night through Sunday night. Too early to have much confidence with the probability of occurrence and certainly with any details of the storm this many days away. With that said, NBM shows a 20-30% chance of at least 6 inches of snow across the area for the event. Additionally, there is at least moderate to high confidence that temperatures would be cold enough to support snow at the start of the event.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Afternoon/Night: VFR. WSW wind gusts 15-20 kt, veering to WNW overnight.

Wednesday: VFR. Some WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt, subsiding at night.

Thursday and Friday: Mainly VFR. WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. N wind gusts 15-20 kt.

MARINE

A gale wrng has been issued on the ocean for tngt. Elsewhere, a sca remains in place. A sca will then be needed on the ocean thru Tue ngt, and may be needed elsewhere with winds close to criteria. Winds and waves may remain blw sca lvls on Wed. In addition to the winds and waves, lgt freezing spray can also be expected on the waters at times thru Tue ngt.

Advisory conditions likely return once again for Thursday into Friday, and for the ocean waters, this may include Saturday as well.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

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