textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A large area of high pressure will prevail from the Great Lakes east into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states through Tuesday before building offshore Wednesday. A frontal system will then move across the area late Thursday into Friday. High pressure builds back into the region for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

An upper trough will continue to lift out to the NE today and out into the North Atlantic. However, energy at the base of the upper trough gets cutoff, while ridging aloft expands east across southern Canada. This will leave a weak upper low across the northern Mid Atlantic region. Conditions will remain dry due to a moisture-starved airmass and very weak lift. There is a chance for some high clouds late today into tonight. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the area during this time.

Highs today will top out in the upper 70s to around 80. This is a few degrees below normal. Lows will generally be in the 50s except for the lower 60s across NYC. This is about 5 to 8 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A weak upper low over the Mid Atlantic will slowly lift north during this time, eventually getting absorbed by an upper trough digging south and east across western and central Canada. At the same time, the upper ridge to the north across southern Canada builds east. The expansive area of high pressure at the surface from the Great Lakes and into the Northeast will gradually weaken and translate east. This all spells dry conditions to continue with little change in temperatures. A weak easterly flow will strengthen a bit Monday as low pressure passes well south and east across the western Atlantic.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The NBM/previous forecast was followed with no changes.

Key Points:

* High pressure remains near the area Wednesday with dry conditions.

* Chance for precipitation returns on Thursday, with a better chance of rainfall Thursday night and Friday as an upper level trough and associated cold front approach and move into the region. There is a chance that Thursday remains dry with the cold front slightly slowed down from previous forecast runs.

* High pressure builds back into the region for Saturday.

* Daytime high temperatures in the long term will be in the 70s each day.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR AM, MVFR or lower PM in SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas will largely remain below SCA criteria with the area under the influence of high pressure through the middle of the week. However, an area of low pressure passing well south and east Monday into Tuesday will send a building easterly swell into the waters with a chance of 5 ft seas on the ocean Tuesday and Tuesday night. The latter is a trend upward.

Seas may return to small craft levels to end the week and start the weekend as a frontal system approaches the waters and low pressure passes nearby.

HYDROLOGY

There are no hydrologic concerns through the week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

A low rip current risk continues at ocean beaches today with waves 1-2 ft at 5-7 seconds. The risk likely starts off low Monday but could become moderate later in the day due to a building easterly wind wave of 3-5 ft at 4-6 seconds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.