textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for Aviation. Coastal Flood Advisories now in effect for late this afternoon/early this evening high tide for the south shore back bays of Nassau and western Great South Bay.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry conditions will continue into early next week with gusty N-NE winds continuing through the end of this week.

2) Minor coastal flooding expected across the south shore back bays of Nassau, western portions of the Great South Bay, and lower NY Harbor with late this afternoon/early evening high tide. Additional localized minor coastal flooding possible on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Persistent easterly swells from an offshore system are expected to contribute to some minor coastal flooding and tidal piling with the late afternoon and early evening high tide for portions of the lower NY Harbor, south shore back bays of Nassau County, and western Great South Bay. There may also be some localized minor flooding for portions similar locations during high tides on Thursday. Some minor beach erosion is possible during this period. Elsewhere, water levels are expected to remain below minor coastal flooding benchmarks.

Have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the south shore back bays of Nassau County and western Great South Bay for the late afternoon/early evening high tide. This is where minor coastal flooding looks more widespread. The Coastal Flood Statement for portions of the Lower NY Harbor is unchanged with localized minor coastal flooding mainly in the vicinity of Newark Bay and potentially the Great Kills Harbor.

Continued tidal piling could result in another cycle or two of localized minor flooding during high tides on Thursday. However, a long period of northerly wind could be enough to offset flooding. Main concern is across western portions of the Great South Bay due to potential of water not flowing out of the bay due to the tidal piling. Levels may also come close for the most vulnerable locations in back bays of Southern Nassau. Will hold off on extending any statements/advisories until seeing how the upcoming tidal cycles verify.

Thereafter, astronomical tides will increase as we approach a full moon early Monday morning. Easterly long period swells are expected to continue, but slowly diminish in height Friday into the upcoming weekend. Localized minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out for some of the most vulnerable coastal locations of the back bays and potentially the western Sound by Saturday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday and Friday: VFR. N winds G15-20kt.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Only change made to marine headlines were to extend the gale warning for the ocean out 20 nm from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet to 6 am Thursday and ocean out 60 nm east of Moriches until 11 am. Gales are still expected today into tonight on the ocean except out 20 nm west of Fire Island Inlet. SCA winds are anticipated on the Bays, Sound and NY Harbor. Ocean seas will range from 8 to 14 ft, highest on the offshore ocean waters. Some 5-6 ft seas could also spill into the eastern Sound late today into tonight.

Any lingering gales Thursday morning east of Moriches Inlet should subside with lingering SCA winds possible, mainly on the ocean for the rest of the day on Thursday. A brief extension of the SCA is also possible on the non-ocean waters on Thursday. Ocean seas will be slow to subside through the end of the week, and may not end up below 5 ft out to 20 nm until early Saturday morning. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels this weekend into early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-355. Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-380. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ353-383-385.