textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An SPS is in effect for the whole area until 9am for the potential for icy surfaces.

Probabilities have trended lower for the late Sunday into Monday potential storm event.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Precipitation has moved out of the area this morning with all advisories cancelled.

2) A weak shortwave could set of a light snow shower or flurry Friday night.

3) Temperatures near to slightly above normal Saturday night through Tuesday.

4) There is a chance for light rain and/or snow late Sunday through Monday. Uncertainty remains high, and probabilities have trended lower.

KEY MESSAGE 4

A lot of uncertainty remains with low pressure passing to the south of the area Sunday into Monday night. NBM probabilities have trended down with this system, and global models are now showing that upper ridging will remain across the central US and into the Great Lakes, and moving into the northeast US Friday and into the weekend as an upper shortwave moves into the southwest US and then rides under the ridge across the southern tier. At the surface a reinforcing high builds out of central Canada and suppresses the surface low well to the south as the low reaches the East Coast by late this weekend. The area will be on the northern edge of the storm, with the chance of light snow and/or rain. If trends continue there is the possibility that the area could remain dry through the weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Late Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. WNW winds G15-20kt.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of snow inland and either snow/rain at the NYC metros/coast at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds shift to more of a westerly direction this morning. As it does, SCA conditions will then quickly develop by mid morning on all waters, and continue through the day Thursday. An occasional gust to gale force is possible for the ocean waters this afternoon/evening. SCA cond could last into Thu night on the ocean.

Winds and seas then fall below advisory levels beginning Friday, and lasting through Sunday night. There is uncertainty with the track of low pressure passing to the south Sunday night: if the low tracks a little farther to the north, then wind gusts on the ocean will be near SCA levels later in the weekend. However, latest trends have been to keep the low track farther south.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.