textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for aviation.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Snow continues across Long Island and SE CT through 11am with impacts continuing for the AM commute.

2) Another light snowfall is possible late Thursday and Thursday night as low pressure passes to the south.

3) Potential for multiple waves of low pressure to bring precipitation to the area late in the weekend through the middle of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

A cold front will move through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning with an arctic airmass building in behind it. 00z guidance has started to hint at more QPF along the leading edge of the arctic airmass. Have introduced slight chance PoPs north and west of NYC due to the latest NBM lagging on this. It is cold enough for this precipitation to be snow, but will likely be in the form of showers or potentially squall activity. Overall QPF appears to be light and this would likely not result in any significant accumulation.

The next chance of precipitation comes Monday into Monday night. High pressure will be over the area with a wave of low pressure trying to pass underneath. This will really come down to how much the high can suppress or weaken the wave. The GFS and GEFS remain the most aggressive/farthest north, with the Canadian, ECMWF and their ensembles passing farther south with a weaker wave and just grazing us if at all. All solutions would be cold enough for snow. It is worth noting that the GFS and GEFS have come a bit farther south with the 00z run compared to the 18z run. Latest GEFS mean QPF has about 0.60 inches of liquid across the area. The latest NBM, given the drier guidance blended in, has a 40% chance of seeing 0.25 inches of liquid.

Another wave of low pressure then looks to move near the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. With high pressure leaving the area and this wave likely moving farther north, this would indicate more of a front end snow changing over over to rain. However, being over a week out, there is more uncertainty with the exact evolution of this system.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Most of Thursday: VFR

Late Thursday aftn/Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR possible with light snow.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Slight chance of snow showers to bring brief MVFR/IFR. Mainly north and west of NYC.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean, LI back bays, and eastern LI Sound from 6am this morning through 6pm this evening for SW gusts around 25 kt.

Wind gusts diminish this evening, but hazardous seas over 5 ft continue on the ocean through at least Thursday morning, and likely into Thursday afternoon E of Fire Island Inlet.

A cold frontal passage along with building high pressure late in the weekend and early next week may bring the next chance of SCA conditions.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.