textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with the latest forecast. A Small Craft Advisory on the ocean was extended through Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong frontal system will impact the area late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with showers, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Mixed rain/snow possible before ending Thursday afternoon.

2) A strong frontal system will impact the area late Sunday through Monday Night. Unseasonably cold air to follow.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Global models are in good overall agreement with carving out a high amplitude upper trough across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a rapidly deepening low will track northeast from the central Plains Sunday, across the Great Lakes Sunday night, and into eastern Canada on Monday. The associated warm front will lift through the area Sunday, relatively inactive with a low chance of precipitation. Some snow will be possible at the onset. A strong southerly LLJ will then aid in what looks to be a moderate to heavy warm conveyor belt rainfall along the eastern seaboard Sunday night into Monday. 13Z NBM probabilities for an inch or more of rainfall are about 30 to 50 percent. 00Z LREF (blend of EPS, GEPs, and GEFs) probabilities are a bit lower. This will ultimately be determined by the progression of the system. There clearly is the potential for higher rainfall amounts. Latest 12Z operational GFS and Canadian show strong support for an inch or more.

In addition, with the aforementioned strong LLJ, NBM probabilities for 24h max wind gust >= 45 mph (wind advisory level gusts) are 30 to 50 percent at the coast. At this time of year, due to the cold waters and strong warm advection, a strong inversion will likely be in place. This will impede the amount of momentum transfer to the surface.

Warm sector high temperatures on Monday are forecast to get well into the 50s to lower 60s away from the immediate coast. Following the cold frontal passage, it will get much colder with highs struggling to get out of the 30s with lows in the 20s.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Late Tonight: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts near 20-25 kt afternoon into night.

Saturday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt during the day.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with rain, highest chances at night. SE wind gusts near 20-25 kt afternoon into night. LLWS possible.

Monday: MVFR or lower at times with rain. Southerly wind gusts 25-30 kt during the day. More westerly wind gusts 25-30 kt at night. LLWS possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Added some patch fog this evening and areas of fog after midnight as high dew point air moves across the colder waters ahead of an approaching cold front. The moisture is shallow and mixing could limit the coverage.

An increased S/SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front is expected to bring SCA conditions to the ocean and the Long Island South shore bays by tonight as gusts have increased to near 25 kt Wednesday afternoon. In additions ocean seas will build to SCA levels tonight.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely on all the forecast waters Thursday as winds shift to the northwest behind a cold front that moves east of the waters Thursday morning. Gusts rather quickly diminish on the noon ocean waters Thursday afternoon, and into the evening on the ocean waters. Seas will be slow to subside on the ocean so the SCA was extended through Thursday night.

An increasing southerly flow ahead of the next frontal system Friday will likely produce SCA gusts on all the waters late Friday into Friday night, and another SCA may be needed.

Marginal gale force gusts will be possible in a westerly flow on Saturday. Highest chance will be on the ocean waters. Blended NBM with NBM90, but based on the 12Z GFS, these gusts could be underdone. Weak high pressure briefly follows. A strong frontal system will then impact the area Sunday night into Monday with a southerly gale possible on all waters.

CLIMATE

Below are daily record temperatures for Wednesday March 11:

Record High Temperatures:

March 11: KEWR: 75/2021 KBDR: 67/1977 KNYC: 73/1977 KLGA: 70/1977 KJFK: 68/2016 KISP: 68/1977

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 11: KEWR: 48/2016 KBDR: 45/2016 KNYC: 50/1977 KLGA: 49/2016 KJFK: 50/2016 KISP: 45/2016

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-335-340. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ332- 338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.