textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) A deepening offshore low will continue to affect the region tonight, producing storm total snowfall of 2 to 4 inches, and locally up to 5 inches across parts of SE CT.

2.) Except for Thursday, below normal temperatures expected from Monday through next weekend, with the coldest periods Monday night through Tuesday night, and Saturday into Sunday. Wind chills Monday night and Tuesday night will bottom out a few degrees either side of zero, and should be below zero across most of the area Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2

With the mean longwave trough remaining over the eastern CONUS, cold weather will be in place through most of the longer term, beginning with a cold fropa Mon evening.

Temps Mon night falling into the teens combined with brisk W flow 15- 20 mph will lead to wind chills as low as a couple of degrees below zero in most areas NW of NYC, and in the lower single digits elsewhere. After a very cold day on Tue with highs only in the lower 20s and wind chills in the single digits and teens, with high pressure overhead and lighter winds actual temps will be colder Tue night, with single digits inland and teens for NYC metro and the coast, but minimum wind chills won't be much different than those of Mon night.

A return flow Wed-Thu after the high passes should bring a gradual return of near normal temps by Wed night-Thu, with highs on Thu 35- 40. WAA ahead of an approaching cold front on Thu will also bring a chance of wet snow and/or rain showers. Cold fropa takes place toward evening, with temps once again returning to below normal for the rest of the week. A cold front moving through Fri evening will bring a modified Arctic air mass into the area for the weekend, with even colder temps for Sat night into Sunday, with lows again in the single digits/teens and highs on Sunday only in the lower 20s, and wind chills at or below zero across most of the area early Sunday morning.

Forecast shows minimal chances of snow for the weekend, but this reflects model differences, with the GFS showing an Alberta clipper approaching on Sunday while the ECMWF maintains cold high pressure, but eventually does trend toward snow chances by Sunday night as the high retreats.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR. SW-S winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: A period of MVFR or lower possible with a band of snow. Rain may mix in near the coasts.

Friday: VFR with W winds G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA was dropped for the ocean waters for tonight, with winds gusting no higher than 20 kt, and seas remaining just under 5 ft. Ocean seas should reach 5 ft by daybreak Mon.

With a strengthening/gusty W flow developing Monday between a low tracking through SE Canada and high pressure building to the south, SCA conditions are likely across all waters. The western ocean waters begin early Monday morning with the non ocean waters reaching SCA conditions by around noon. SCA conditions then remain on all the waters through at least Monday night, with the chance of gusts briefly nearing gale force on the ocean waters east of Moriches Monday night. With the gusty flow continuing the advisory will likely be extended through Tuesday, with the ocean waters remaining at SCA levels into Tuesday night. Then there will be a brief lull later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Some freezing spray is possible from late Mon night into Tue night on the ocean, sound, and at the harbor entrance.

Longer term, an extended period of SCA cond is likely mainly for the ocean waters from Wed night into Fri night. Some gusts up to 25 kt expected on the ocean Wed night with SW flow 20-25 kt, and then again Thu night on all waters as winds shift WNW after a cold frontal passage, otherwise elevated ocean seas 5-7 ft expected. Elevated seas 5-6 ft may be confined more to the waters E of Fire Island Inlet Fri into Fri night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for CTZ005- 009. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for CTZ006>008- 010>012. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ067>075-176>179. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ078>081. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.