textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extreme Heat Warning extended through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat and humidity continues through Independence Day.

This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate cooling and hydration, especially with the little overnight relief expected. Impacts to transportation infrastructure and electrical and water systems are possible.

2) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day through Sunday. Highest chances are over the weekend. Any storm has the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and localized flash flooding.

3) There is a high risk of rip currents today at all local ocean beaches (See Marine Section).

KEY MESSAGE 2

Showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening through Sunday, with highest chances over the weekend.

Today offers the best likelihood of remaining dry. While a widely isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible later this afternoon into the early evening, mainly across the north, convection likely struggles to initiate with ridging continuing to build and lack of trigger. Chances tick up Friday afternoon with a weak surface boundary nearby. SPC outlines a slight (2/5) risk for severe weather on Friday for the western half of the forecast area, including NYC, and a marginal (1/5) risk elsewhere. Similar risk continues on Saturday, though coverage may be more enhanced with a cold front approaching and a bit stronger forcing for ascent aloft as well.

The primary threat is damaging winds, but can't rule out large hail or even localized to isolated instances of flash flooding with slower storm motion and clustering. This is particularly true should this occur over the more susceptible urban metros.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Late tonight: VFR.

Friday: Mostly VFR. W winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon. An isolated late day or evening tstm with strong winds possible.

Saturday: W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Chance of afternoon/evening tstms with strong winds possible.

Sunday: Chance of afternoon showers/tstms. MVFR or lower cond possible.

Sunday night and Monday: Showers/tstms likely. MVFR or lower cond at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this morning for coastal ocean waters out to 20 nm with seas around 5 ft. Seas should lower closer to 4 ft by afternoon. SW winds today could occasionally gust toward 20 or 25 kt, but coverage and frequency appears too low to warrant another SCA at this time.

Winds and seas are then largely expected to remain below SCA levels into early next week.

Rip Currents...

There is a high risk of rip currents at all local ocean beaches today.

SW flow of 15 to 20 kt and 4-5 ft 6s period swells drive this risk. Lighter winds and lower swells drop the risk to moderate for Friday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

July 2: KEWR: 103/1901 KBDR: 100/1966 KNYC: 100/1966 KLGA: 101/1966 KJFK: 101/1966 KISP: 99/1966

July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966

July 4: KEWR: 105/1949 KBDR: 98/1949 KNYC: 102/1949 KLGA: 100/1949 KJFK: 101/2010 KISP: 97/2010

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 2: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 82/1901 KLGA: 78/2002 KJFK: 74/2018 KISP: 74/2014

July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018

July 4: KEWR: 81/2002 KBDR: 80/2002 KNYC: 81/2002 KLGA: 82/1999 KJFK: 80/2002 KISP: 76/2002

July 5: KEWR: 81/1999 KBDR: 74/2018 KNYC: 82/1999 KLGA: 86/1999 KJFK: 80/1999 KISP: 78/1999

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>012. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012. NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353-355.