textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Strong high pressure builds in from the west tonight into Friday. The high will pass east Friday night as weak low pressure passes well to the south Friday night and heads well out to sea on Saturday. A cold front moves through Sunday night. Behind it, high pressure builds in from the west, remaining in control through Tuesday. Low pressure may impact the area mid next week as it passes to the north.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Key Points:

* Low wind chills and record low temps possible at some spots tonight.

Temperatures plummet tonight thanks to arctic high pressure building in behind the cold front, reaching the single digits in some spots well inland, teens most elsewhere, and the lower 20s in/just outside NYC and out by Montauk. Some record low temps may be approached or set.

NW flow 20-25 mph gusting to 25-35 mph this evening after cold front passage. Winds then quickly diminish late tonight as high pressure starts to build in. By midnight or thereafter, winds should be northerly around 10 mph or less. Tonight's winds in combination with falling temps will lead to wind chills in the single digits and teens as early as this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Cold conditions continue, especially daytime Friday.

* Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with some light snow/rain Friday night into Saturday.

Temps on Fri as the high builds across will only reach the mid/upper 20s inland, lower 30s most elsewhere, and the mid 30s across eastern Long Island.

Still maintaining a 30-40 PoP as the precip shield with a southern stream low passing off Hatteras and moving nearly due E out to sea skirts the area. Precip type should be mostly light snow with little to no accumulation Fri night, then light rain or a rain/snow mix on Sat as temps warm and mid levels dry out. The best chance for precipitation looks to be after midnight Friday night as an inverted trough extending from the low moves into the region.

Low temps Fri night will be in the teens to 20S, with lower 30s expected in NYC. Lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will be a couple of degrees warmer. Highs on Sat will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Points:

* Some of the coldest air of the season so far moves in early next week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday likely in the upper 20 and 30s region-wide, with morning wind chills in the single digits and teens.

* A period of precipitation is possible Sunday night into Monday, and could bring light snow to portions of the area should it occur, mainly north of the I-95 corridor.

Troughing aloft across much of the Eastern US to start the period. A cold front moves across the area Sunday night that ushers in a modifying arctic air mass through early next week.

While the frontal passage, at this time, appears moisture starved, still have to monitor this period as there are differences amongst guidance handling two separate shortwaves traversing east. The 12Z GFS/GEFS depicts more interaction with these waves, inducing surface low development off the New England coast on Monday, and bringing a period of light rain and snow to the region. Other guidance is much more separated and drier as a result, and this wetter solution is being considered an outlier with this update. Still a period to watch though over the next couple of days as these differences resolve.

Regardless thereafter, 1030 mb surface high builds east over the Mid Atlantic into Tuesday, keeping conditions cold and dry locally. Daytime highs both Monday and Tuesday look to remain mostly in the 30s, or even 20s inland, and a gusty NW flow behind the front will add to the cold. Morning wind chills Tuesday could fall into the single digits to near 0 inland, and teens along the coast, which would not warrant any cold headlines.

A clipper system may move through the Northeast on Wednesday, bringing the next chance for precipitation.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday afternoon: Primarily VFR. Low chance of brief MVFR and light snow during the late afternoon/night, especially for southern and eastern terminals.

Saturday: Low chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of the NYC metros, otherwise VFR prevails.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

NW gales continue on the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays of Long Island this evening following a cold frontal passage, with winds gusting to 30 kt on the Harbor/wrn Sound/south shore bays. Seas should peak at 5-8 ft on the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet, 4-7 on the ocean W of there, and 5 ft on the Long Island side of the central/ern Sound.

Blowout tides may be possible on the western Sound with the low tide early this evening, with water levels approaching 2 ft below MLLW.

Any gales will be replaced by SCAs late tonight and quickly ramp down, with quiet cond through Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions likely return to all waters Sunday night into Monday as NW flow increases behind a cold frontal passage. Gusts near or above 25 kt look to persist into Monday evening before subsiding, then sub SCA conditions expected on all waters once again into midweek.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport and Stamford CT tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as low pressure passes well south.

CLIMATE

Low temps Fri morning may reach daily record lows at KJFK/KBDR, and may also get close at KLGA. High temps Fri may also be close to daily record low maxes at KLGA/KJFK.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935 KBDR: 17/1989 KNYC: 11/1926 KLGA: 21/1942 KJFK: 20/1966 KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002 KBDR: 28/2002 KNYC: 22/1886 KLGA: 32/2002 KJFK: 33/2007 KISP: 30/2002

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-332-340-350- 353-355. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338- 345.