textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Potential remains for a period of frigid air Friday night through Sunday night with potential for cold weather headlines.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and continued cold through Thursday night.

2) An Alberta clipper low will bring a chance for light snowfall late Friday into Friday night followed by an arctic cold front that brings a period of strong winds and frigid temperatures with dangerous wind chills into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Heights drop aloft Friday through Saturday as a longwave trough w/ closed upper-low over the Hudson Bay deepens over the eastern US. A weak Alberta clipper low will partially phase with the trough as it traverses across the northeast late Friday into Saturday.

This low will bring with it a chance for snow. Quite a bit of dry air remains in place over the area Friday into Saturday and the low remains relatively weak until it passes east of the area, so any snowfall that occurs will be on the lighter side of things. Snow ratios will be high given cold air already in place.

This far out, timing can still change. But the best timing for snowfall appears to be very light stuff with weak warm air advection ahead of the low Friday afternoon and early evening, then additional light snowfall with passage of an arctic cold front Friday night into early Saturday morning. A few snow squalls will be possible near the tail end of it as low level lapse rates look to increase. Snowfall should taper early Saturday morning west to east with the front.

The axis of the long wave trough shifts east and tilts negatively later on Saturday. This allows the clipper low to rapidly strengthen as its passes out to sea leaving us in a strong pressure gradient zone. This will result in strong cold air advection and gusty northwest flow on Saturday.

NW winds on Saturday should peak around 20-25 mph with gusts of 35- 40 mph. Winds then gradually taper under a weakening pressure gradient Saturday night into Monday. Although, winds will still remain quite gusty into Sunday.

Given the passage of a strong arctic front, cold air advection reinforced by strong NW flow, and a deep trough aloft leaving us with much lower heights aloft, we'll be under a very cold arctic air mass over the weekend. Highs Sat & Sun will be in the middle teens to right around 20. Lows will be in the single digits for most with below zero temps possible in the interior.

With strong winds in place under frigid temperatures, wind chills will also be a concern. The afternoon alone on Saturday it could feel below zero across the area. By Saturday night, we're looking at minimum wind chills between -10 at the coast to -20 in the interior. The dangerous wind chills could continue into Sunday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday Afternoon-Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR into the afternoon. Evening/night MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow. WNW gusts 25-35 kt late Friday night.

Saturday: VFR. NW winds 20-30kt with gusts 35-45 kt.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Quiet conditions expected through Friday evening.

An Arctic cold frontal passage Fri night into Sat will bring strengthening winds and building seas, with NW gales likely late Fri night into Sat. Freezing spray could be moderate to heavy, at times, this weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.