textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation for the 15Z amendments.

There is a high rip current risk for the ocean beaches today.

Confidence is increasing in a period of heavy rainfall late Sunday through Monday, with an isolated flash flood potential.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A high risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches today.

2) Mainly dry and seasonable conditions this weekend. Increasing humidity each day.

3) The potential is increasing for periods of heavy rain Sunday night into Monday. Unsettled conditions continue into midweek.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Positively tilted upper trough with attendant closed low over the Central Plains on Saturday ejects out into the OH Valley by Sunday evening, shearing as it does so. Surface low pressure accompany this feature, and approaches the local area on Monday.

With increased moisture advection commencing ahead of this system, a tropical-like airmass will be in place as rain chances begin to increase Sunday afternoon and evening. Ensemble PWATS approach or exceed 2.0" by Sunday night into early Monday, which is above the 90th percentile for the date per SPC sounding climo. As the upper trough and low approach, lift becomes better and rain with possible thunder becomes potentially heavier Monday morning. Any convection has the potential to train as well, increasing the heavy precipitation threat, with low and upper level flow aligned.

Heaviest precipitation, and thus threat for any flooding looks to occur Monday into Monday afternoon. Total amounts at this point look to be in the 1-2" range area-wide, with higher amounts possible. NBM probabilities of >2" are in the 10-30% range, and have increased with each successive model run. While we are not quite in the window of the convective allowing models, which may help to highlight the axes of heaviest precipitation, the WPC Urban Rainfall Rate Dashboard is already advertising the possibility of >1" per hour rainfall rates for NYC early Monday from this event. These numbers will be refined with subsequent forecast cycles as we go through the weekend. Isolated flash flooding would be possible given this setup, especially in urban areas and spots that received significant rainfall earlier this week. WPC maintains the slight risk of excessive rainfall for western portions of the area, which include northeastern NJ, NYC, much of CT, western Long Island, and the Lower Hudson Valley for Monday.

Rain tapers late Monday but continues again Tuesday. It will not be as widespread into midweek, but guidance continues to indicate still the chance for showers and thunderstorms through at least Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: Mainly VFR, chance of a late day shower or tstm. S/SE winds G15-20kt.

Monday-Wednesday: Sub-VFR in showers and thunderstorms. S winds G20kt Monday. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions on the waters are likely into early Sunday. There may be an occasional gust this afternoon to 25 kt from Sandy Hook to Fire Island inlet.

Marginal SCA potential for wind gusts on Sunday with higher chances of SCA conditions starting on Monday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None.