textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will bring the relatively mild spell of weather to an end by Thursday. Single digits wind chills are expected Thursday night.

2) A disorganized series of frontal systems move over the area this weekend which may result in chances of light snow or rain with a much colder airmass building over the area through early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Brief high pressure on Friday gives way to a digging trough west of the area with multiple pieces of mid-level energy rotating through it. These will result in a relatively weak, disorganized, and complex area of low pressure over much of the Northeast through this weekend and into early next week. As the several weak systems move through the area, chances of light snow or initially rain closer to the coast will be possible Saturday through Sunday evening. If it occurs, as PoPs only indicate a slight chance (20%) of precipitation, it will be light in intensity and disorganized.

By Monday, a more robust area of mid-level energy sweeps through allowing in a more significant low pressure intensification as it develops and moves to the northeast of the area. This is not anticipated to impact the CWA in any meaningful way with respect to sensible weather.

The most significant part of this pattern will be the rapid change in airmass that maintains over the area into next week. Temperatures on Saturday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. By Sunday, high temperatures will be below average, only in the low 30s with colder temperatures anticipated for early next week. Highs by Tuesday will only be in the 20s. Wind chills by Monday night may be in the single digits.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday: VFR, becoming MVFR late at night with rain showers developing.

Thursday: Slight chance light rain/snow early with MVFR or lower possible. Otherwise VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15 to around 20 kt.

Friday: VFR. W-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance MVFR or lower at times with slight chance of rain and/or snow.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower in isolated snow showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Southwest winds are expected to increase into tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system, bringing a subsequent increase in seas. Small craft conditions will develop on the ocean waters, south shore bays, and far eastern portions of the LI sound. Conditions will improve late Wednesday as a cold front begins to move through the waters, but seas on the eastern ocean waters may be slower to subside. Winds will then be gusty into Thu following the frontal passage.

Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters by Friday with perhaps a lull in SCA-threshold criteria during the day. By Friday night, more widespread SCA conditions are likely on the ocean waters with gusts to 30kt and waves 5-7 feet. Though wind relaxes on Saturday, elevated wave heights will maintain SCA criteria on the ocean for Saturday.

EQUIPMENT

KOKX Doppler Radar is out of service.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ332-345. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.