textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
While an offshore low pressure system is expected to pass too far south and east to bring significant impacts to the area, rain chances have increased some Saturday into Saturday night, especially further east.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Rain expected tonight into a portion of Thursday morning.
2) Minor coastal flooding benchmarks may be touched across the most vulnerable locations across the South Shore Back Bays and coastal Fairfield County this evening and Thursday evening.
3) Some uncertainty remains around the proximity of an offshore coastal low during the first half of the upcoming weekend. There remains the potential for some rain Saturday, more so across eastern coastal areas.
KEY MESSAGE 3
Latest global guidance is in agreement on the late phasing of northern and southern stream energy resulting in the formation and deepening of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast. All guidance tracks the low far enough south to not bring significant rain or wind impacts, but some bring it close enough for light rain and clouds, especially for coastal areas.
Latest NBM and LREF guidance show about 0.25 inches for eastern Long Island and then decreasing farther north and west, with a few hundredths for the Lower Hudson Valley.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
Rest of Thursday: Becoming VFR with light NW flow.
Friday: VFR with NW flow 10-20kt.
Saturday - Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
A prolonged stretch of marginal small craft seas is anticipated for the majority of the ocean through the day Thursday, along with a period of marginal small craft wind gusts Thursday night into Friday morning. Thus, have included the western ocean for marginal advisory level seas through the day Thursday. Sub-SCA conditions expected through the weekend. However, there is potential for an offshore low pressure system to trend closer to the area and bring 5ft seas and 25kt gusts to the ocean waters Saturday into Saturday night. Right now confidence is low.
The pressure gradient tightens and winds increase on Monday. SCA conditions possible Monday into Tuesday, mainly for the ocean waters.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.
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