textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The wind advisory has been expanded to include the entire CWA.

Dense fog advisory expected on the area waters through 11 pm

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong frontal system brings periods of rain and the potential for thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into tonight. Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible. Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph are also expected.

2) A drier and colder airmass settles into the area for Tuesday through Thursday.

3) A frontal boundary will move across the region this weekend bring another chance of precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 2

High pressure gradually builds into the region on Tuesday, settling over the region Wednesday, then departs Thursday. The high will bring in a colder and drier airmass behind the frontal system of Monday. Temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday night will run about 10 degrees below normal for mid-March. Gusty conditions likely continue on Tuesday, and will produce wind chill values in the 30s for much of the day. Warmer temperatures return for the end of the week.

Key Message 3... Another frontal system is expected to approach Friday into move across there region this weekend. Right now, there remains some timing issues with exactly when the front moves across the area. Expect at least some chance POPs this weekend, with rain across the southern half of the CWA and some light snow or a rain/snow across the northern half as the front moves through.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday: VFR. W gusts 25-30 kt.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Friday-Friday night: VFR during the day, with possible sub VFR in SHRA at night.

Saturday: Sub VFR possible Sat AM, otherwise mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A strong frontal system will bring an increasing, and gusty, southerly flow to the forecast waters through tonight. While Small craft conditions continue on the waters into early this afternoon, southerly gusts are expected to increase and reach gale force later this afternoon. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all the waters today into tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely ahead of a strong cold front late this afternoon into this evening. The thunderstorms could bring higher wind gust to the water surface with the potential of local gusts to 50 kt.

Westerly winds behind the cold front passage will begin to diminish especially by late tonight, with gusts on the non-ocean waters potentially lowering to SCA levels. Ocean gusts, especially on the eastern waters fall below gale force by Tuesday morning. Small craft conditions likely linger on all waters through Tuesday with 25 kt gusts, but could potentially continue into Wednesday on the ocean waters with lingering 5ft seas. Sub-SCA conditions then expected thereafter.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for CTZ005>012. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>075-078>081- 176>179. NJ...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340- 345-350-353-355. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.