textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marine Dense Fog Advisories issued for most of the coastal waters ahead of the cold frontal passage this morning. Heavy rain and strong wind potential is increasing with the frontal system from late Sunday night into Monday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonably cool air to follow for the rest of this week after a cold frontal passage this morning.

2) A strong frontal system will impact the area with rain and wind from late Sunday through Monday Night. Colder air to follow.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Global models remain in good overall agreement with carving out a high amplitude upper trough across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. A rapidly deepening sfc low will track northeast from the central Plains on Sunday, toward the upper Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday morning, and into eastern Canada later Monday. A weak warm front well in advance will lift through on Sunday and bring only a slight chance of some light snow or rain to inland sections.

Another warm front accompanied by a strong southerly LLJ will approach from the south Sunday night and lift through Monday morning, accompanied by a northerly surge of subtropical Atlantic moisture, which should lead to a moderate to heavy warm conveyor belt rainfall along the Eastern seaboard Sunday night into Mon morning. Additional moderate to briefly heavy rainfall will likely follow for late Mon into Mon evening with a strong cold frontal passage. NBM 48h probabilities for an inch or more of rainfall have increased to 40-60 percent, and there is strong deterministic model support for this, with the 00Z Canadian as high as 2-3 inches.

In addition, with the aforementioned strong LLJ, NBM probabilities for 24h max wind gust >= 45 mph (wind advisory level gusts) have increased to 40-60 percent at the coast. Synoptic setup with a long fetch tight pressure gradient even suggests low-end potential for a high wind event. At this time of year however, due to the cold waters and strong warm advection, a strong sfc-based inversion will likely be in place, which may impede the amount of momentum transfer to the surface at least in areas east of NYC.

Warm sector high temperatures on Monday are forecast to get at least into the 50s, and into the lower 60s from NYC west. Following the cold frontal passage, it will get much colder with highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s on Tue/Wed, with lows in the 20s to perhaps lower 30s in NYC.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts near 20-25 kt afternoon into night.

Saturday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt during the day.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with rain, highest chances at night. SE wind gusts near 20-25 kt afternoon into night. LLWS possible.

Monday: MVFR or lower at times with rain. Southerly wind gusts 25-30 kt during the day. More westerly wind gusts 25-30 kt at night. LLWS possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Marine dense fog advy issued for most waters, with some coastal sites already reporting vsby less than 1 nm, and guidance suggesting increasingly widespread potential for these lower vsbys until cold fropa early this morning.

SCA already in effect for the ocean waters for hazardous seas initially will expand to all waters today after cold fropa, with W-NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt. Winds start to diminish late this afternoon on most of the non ocean waters, then gradually on the ocean from west to east tonight.

An increasing southerly flow ahead of low pressure passing well to the north on Friday/Saturday will lead to SCA cond on all waters from late Fri afternoon into most of daytime Sat, with lingering hazardous ocean seas thereafter into Sat evening. Potential for marginal gale force gusts on the ocean in W flow on Sat still exists, but think they will only occur for a short time rather than be frequent.

A strong frontal system will then impact the area Sunday night into Monday with southerly gales likely on all waters.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332- 340-350. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-335-340-345. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.