textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A cold front moves across the area this morning. High pressure will then gradually build in from the west through Monday. A frontal system impacts the region late Monday night through Tuesday. High pressure returns for Wednesday. A series of frontal systems may move across the area late in the week into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Message:

* Dry and breezy conditions prevail through tonight.

Low pressure tracking across southeast Canada this morning will send a cold front across the region. Ahead of the front, S-SW winds have increased advecting milder air into the region, especially closer to the coast. Mostly cloudy conditions to start will quickly become mostly clear through the rest of the morning behind the passage of the cold front. Winds will shift to the W and then WNW behind the front and remain breezy through tonight. Gusts 20-30 mph are likely to occur with cold advection and a well mixed boundary layer. Winds start to weaken tonight as high pressure draws closer, but gusts up to 20 mph remain possible through early Monday morning.

Highs today will be close to normal in the lower 40s. Lows tonight should bottom out in the lower to middle 20s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages:

* Light snow likely late Monday night transitions to a mixture of rain and snow near the coast Tuesday morning and mostly light snow inland.

* Accumulations are expected to be light and under an inch (potentially just a coating) for NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal southeast CT with 1-2 inches possible for interior Lower Hudson Valley, interior southwest CT, and interior NE NJ.

* Slightly below normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday.

High pressure moves over the region on Monday with dry conditions prevailing. It will be a bit colder on Monday with temperatures only in the mid to upper 30s. Clouds increase Monday evening as the high pressure moves offshore. This is in response to a mid level shortwave moving across southern Canada sending a warm front towards the area. Parent low pressure should reside well to our NW by Tuesday morning before potentially redeveloping well off the New England coast late in the day.

There has been little change from the previous forecast for this system. Precipitation is still expected to develop late Monday night/early Tuesday morning as light snow. Increasing SW flow at the surface, especially close to the coast, will begin bringing in warmer boundary layer temperatures for a transition to a rain/snow mix after day break before gradually becoming just light rain mid to late morning. This transition should work its way a bit inland and north into southern CT, but may struggle to bring any changeover into the Lower Hudson Valley. Precip with this system is currently progged to diminish quickly by Tuesday afternoon with the majority of the lingering precip out east. Temperatures should also start rising above freezing even across the interior by afternoon.

There is still some uncertainty with how much precip will fall as well as the timing of the mixing with rain closer to the coast. The overall pattern is not favorable for a significant snowfall with no cold high to our north locking in cold air along with a general W-NW flow aloft. This system will also be fast moving, limiting how much precip will occur. These factors support a light precip event, with limited impacts. Accumulations are expected to be light and under an inch (potentially just a coating) for NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal southeast CT with 1-2 inches possible for interior Lower Hudson Valley, interior southwest CT, and interior NE NJ.

High pressure starts building towards the area Tuesday night. Weak cold advection will only drop temperatures into the lower to middle 30s for most locations.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key Messages:

* Chance of light rain for Christmas Day and a chance of rain on Friday.

* Near normal temperatures, except slightly milder for Thursday night through Friday night.

High pressure continues building into the region through Wednesday. The high moves offshore Wednesday night setting up a return flow into Christmas Day. Another northern stream frontal system impacts the area Christmas Day through Friday as another warm front approaches from the southwest. Any precip on Christmas Day will be mainly light rain. The warm front itself may not pass through the area until Thursday night as the surface low moves into the Great Lakes region, and into southern Canada. The cold front with this system then moves through the area Friday into Friday night with another chance of rain. An active pattern may continue into next weekend, but there is a large amount of spread with any potential frontal system/wave of low pressure.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: VFR.

Monday Night: Chance of light snow after midnight. MVFR or lower likely.

Tuesday: IFR cond with snow at KHPN/KSWF in the morning, possibly ending as rain in the afternoon. A rain/snow mix elsewhere, with MVFR cond likely/IFR possible, becoming rain by the afternoon. SW winds G20kt.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt, becoming NW.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible w/ rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small craft advisories remain in effect through tonight on all waters. Winds will gust 25-30 kt along with ocean seas 6-9ft this morning and then 5-7 ft tonight. There is a low chance for an occasional gale gust, mainly east of Moriches Inlet this afternoon through tonight. Not enough confidence to issue a gale warning, but will mention the occasional wording the coastal waters forecast. Winds and seas subside Monday morning, but seas may remain close to 5 ft and winds may still gust around 25 kt east of Fire Island Inlet. Have extended the SCA on these waters through 10 am Monday.

The pressure gradient briefly relaxes on Monday into Monday night with high pressure over the waters. This will lead to a period of conditions below SCA levels. SCA conditions are then expected on the ocean Tuesday into Tuesday night as a frontal system moves across the region. There is also potential for gale force gusts Tuesday night, mainly east of Fire Island Inlet, and will mention this in the HWO.

SCA conditions may continue on Wednesday and could include some of the Long Island Sound. Conditions fall below advisory levels late Wednesday into Wednesday night as high pressure builds over the waters. A frontal system likely impacts the waters for Christmas Day, however, winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory levels across all the waters through most of the day, with ocean seas possibly building to 5 feet late in the day.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.