textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances have increased for Saturday, likely lingering into the afternoon, especially for coastal locations.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A complex frontal system will impact us tonight through Saturday bringing several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe and flash flooding impacts are not anticipated at this time.

2) High pressure builds late this weekend into the middle of next week bringing the potential for a prolonged period of heat. However, confidence is low towards mid-week with unsettled weather remaining possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Surface high pressure drops down from Canada on Sunday and causes conditions to dry out. Meanwhile, mid level ridging begins to amplify over the Midwest, with the local area straddling the eastern periphery of this ridge.

There remains plenty of uncertainty with the strength and positioning of the ridge as it attempts to build east. Some model guidance show a digging trough over the Western Atlantic may try to close off which would lead to a cooler, more unsettled pattern. Conversely, there are other models that offer shallower, more transient troughing that favors warmer weather with a quicker eastward expansion of the ridge. Adding to the low confidence is the possibility of any ridge riders coming down into the area, producing more in the way of convection and muted temperatures.

NBM spread captures this uncertainty well, with 15+ degree separation between the 25th and 75th percentile high temperatures mid next week. For now, increasing confidence in seasonable summer heat returning early week, with at least the possibility for hotter weather mid to late next week, though many solutions still on the table.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday night: Chance of showers late with MVFR cond possible.

Saturday: MVFR cond likely, IFR vsby possible with showers, especially in the morning. A late day tstm possible at the NYC metros and KSWF.

Saturday night: Mainly VFR.

Sunday and Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt in the afternoon especially KJFK.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-advisory conds are expected to prevail through the forecast period.

Rip Currents:

A moderate risk of rip currents for the rest of today and Friday with 2 to 3 ft southerly swells at 5-7 sec periods. Persisted the moderate risk for Saturday, however, it is a low- end moderate which given light onshore flow and 2 ft waves may end up being a low risk in future forecasts.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.