textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will be in control through early next week with only a weak cold front or trough shifting through during Saturday night into Sunday. A weakening low pressure system then passes nearby for Monday night into Tuesday. A stronger system moving through southeastern Canada then sends a cold front across the local area Wednesday into Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

With the polar jet dropping into the area and the llvls saturated and near -12C or colder, light snow and flurries continue to push through eastern LI and southeastern CT. These should be out of the area completely by 15Z.

Rising cloud bases and subsidence should limit the flurry potential thru this aftn with clearing tngt. High clouds however begin to overspread the area by sunrise

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures.

* Chance for lgt snow Sat ngt.

Thickening high clouds Sat ahead of the next shrtwv. Looks like a clipper type sys. Lift and moisture evident in the timeheights, so would expect perhaps a dusting overnight with the fast moving sys. Right now the srn stream low is progged to remain to far S of the cwa to enhance the pcpn field.

Stuck with the NBM pops for this fcst cycle, but they seem too low based on the setup. If the pattern holds in the modeling, pops should be at least in the likely range.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Points:

* Moderating temperatures for the mid-week period.

* Conditions potentially meeting advisory or warning criteria are not expected.

Fcst is the NBM here with no major changes to the fcst thinking. one thing to look for is the potential for a little lgt fzra Tue ngt into Wed, particularly across the interior, with the warming airmass. Right now there is no fzra in the grids, although this could change if confidence increases as it is still several days away.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Late tonight-Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR. Chance of light snow and MVFR.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR with MVFR or lower possible in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA remains in effect on the ocean today with wind gusts near 25 kt and elevated seas close to 5 ft, especially east of Moriches Inlet. On the non-ocean waters, winds should remain below SCA levels today. Sub-advisory conditions then prevail on all waters from Saturday through early next week.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.