textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Flood Watch is now in effect for northeast NJ, NYC and southern Westchester for Saturday into Saturday night.

There is now an Enhanced risk of severe weather for western portions of northeast NJ, NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley.

There is a high rip current risk at all ocean beaches on Saturday.

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all but the NY Harbor and western LI Sound for Saturday into Saturday night.

State DEPs/DECs have issued Air Quality Alerts for our entire area for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible Saturday into Saturday night. A Flood Watch is now in effect for northeast NJ, NYC and southern Westchester.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for all ocean beaches on Saturday. (See Marine section below for discussion)

3) Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible late Tuesday into a portion of Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

An upper level trough over Canada just north of the Great Lakes region will be the driver of the upcoming weather for Tuesday and into Wednesday. Model guidance has generally good agreement on an amplified shortwave trough approaching the area Tuesday morning, and bringing rain showers and embedded thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through the first half of the day on Wednesday. The best chances for any storm development looks to be between Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening, but a isolated storm going into the overnight hours can't be ruled out. Rain showers will continue into the day on Wednesday, with another small chance for isolated storms in the morning and early afternoon, before surface high pressure builds in from the west, cutting off chances for precipitation heading into Wednesday evening. Going into the end of the week, general high pressure weather with low chances for precipitation is currently forecast through the end of the week.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Saturday night: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms early. SW/S winds G20-25kt in the early evening, then gradually diminishing.

Sunday and Monday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all but the NY Harbor and western LI Sound for Saturday into Saturday night. Winds will likely just reach 25 kt, with 5 ft seas for the ocean zones.

Conditions are then quiet until the next cold frontal passage in the middle of next week. SCA conditions look possible Tuesday through Wednesday night, with the potential of 7 to 10 ft seas.

Rip Currents:

The overall rip current risk is low today with light S/SW winds at or under 10 kt and S swells 1-2 ft at 5 sec periods.

There is a high rip current risk now in effect for Saturday. A strengthening southerly flow at 15 to 20 kt and a resulting wind wave will be the main cause. There is also a SE swell around 1 foot at 14s.

On Sunday, the high risk likely only continues for Suffolk County and during the morning hours. Guidance is showing a lingering 5 to 6 ft swell at 7s but Saturday's winds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for NYZ071>075-176-178. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ331-332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to noon EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.