textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds over the region today. A quick-moving low passes to the south and off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the region Thursday, before exiting offshore ahead of a frontal system that impacts the area Friday into Saturday. High pressure then briefly returns the second half of the weekend and remain into the first part of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Weak high pressure builds over the region today before a fast moving low passes south of the area late tonight. Lighter flow than recent days with a more relaxed pressure field as the high builds overhead and deep low pressure over Atlantic Canada continues to exit.

Air mass remains a bit cool for the time of year, with H850 progged near -5C into this afternoon. This should translate to afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 40s. More in the way of sun expected today, especially early, with the nearby high. Sunshine becomes more filtered through the afternoon as moisture works into the upper levels ahead of the fast moving shortwave ejecting east. The weak surface low passes south of the area overnight, sliding off the Delmarva Wed AM.

As it does so, guidance continues to keep the local area on the northern fringes of the associated precip shield. The system remains weak and transient though and QPF is projected to be light where it does precipitate, generally under a tenth of an inch for areas along the coast, and less going north. Much of S CT and the LoHud Valley could remain entirely dry fighting limited moisture and forcing. If enough works north however, marginal temperature profiles could support wet snow, or a rain and snow mix, in these areas. Given such light QPF though, unsaturated DMZ, and marginal BL temps, any accumulation shouldn't be more than a dusting or light coating on the coldest surfaces, and that may be generous. Best chances for seeing this will be in elevated locales north and west of NYC, such as the Hudson, Ramapo, and perhaps Western Highlands should precip make it this far north. Closer to the coast, temperatures appear not to support any frozen precip, even with initial evaporative cooling in the dry low levels, and a chilly light rain is expected here.

The system quickly pulls offshore toward daybreak, and any precipitation comes to an end. Temperatures overnight range from the upper 30s and lower 40s along the coast, to upper 20s well inland.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Low pressure exits offshore as high pressure reasserts from the northwest.

Any lingering precip tapers by mid Wednesday morning as the passing low scoots out to sea. Conditions dry out and abundant sunshine returns by the afternoon with a light N/NE surface flow becoming established.

Dry conditions prevail through the period, and temperatures sit in the upper 40s for most both afternoons, falling back into the 20s and 30s overnight. The light winds and lingering moisture in the low levels should allow for widespread areas of frost to develop overnight into Thu AM, but mainly for colder inland areas.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key Points:

* A frontal system will impact the region Friday into Saturday as low pressure passes north of the region. A warm front remains near the region on Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.

* High pressure returns for the second half of the weekend and first part of next week with dry conditions.

* High temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal for this time of year. Generally in the lower and middle 50s.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

tonight through Wednesday morning: MVFR or lower in light rain, mainly late and for NYC terminals. Other terminals have a better chance at staying VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in rain. S winds G15-20kt Friday and Saturday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect on the ocean until 19Z this afternoon.

The frequent WNW wind gusts around 25 kt largely subside across the coastal waters this morning, with elevated seas near or above 5 ft lowering on the ocean by mid afternoon.

Conditions are generally then expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday and much of the weekend. SCA conditions look to return on the ocean Sunday night into the first part of next week as the gradient tightens and seas build to 5 ft or greater.

HYDROLOGY

There are no significant hydrological concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355.