textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably warm conditions Wednesday will be followed by a cold front Wednesday evening bringing lower humidity and more seasonable conditions to end the week.

2) A strong cold front will bring showers Thursday night into Friday, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon. Impacts, if any, are expected to be minimal.

3) The coldest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The coldest air mass since late April settles in to start the weekend.

Behind the fropa Friday night, a sprawling surface high builds east from the Plains, and the tightened pressure gradient between the departing area of low pressure to the north will lead to blustery NW winds and strong CAA. H850 temps plummet from the mid teens Friday afternoon to around -6C by Saturday. Temperatures Saturday afternoon struggle to get into the lower 50s along the coast, and upper 40s inland, or around 10 to 15 degrees below climatology for mid October. The gusty NW winds 25-35 mph, will add to the chill, with apparent temperatures likely in the 30s through the day.

Actual air temps then fall into the 30s Saturday night, with lower 40s in the urban NYC metro. The coldest locales of interior S CT and the LoHud Valley likely fall to around or just below the freezing mark. Saturday will the be the cooler day of the weekend, with a gradual rebound in temperatures then expected through early next week.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night: VFR. Possible NW wind gusts to near 20 kt in the evening.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night: Showers move in late at night. VFR trends to MVFR or lower at times.

Friday: Showers. Isolated thunderstorms. MVFR or lower at times. Southerly wind gusts near 20-25 kt. Potential peak gusts near 30-35 kt.

Friday night: Showers tapering off late. Mainly MVFR or lower at times. NW wind gusts near 30 kt. Potential peak gusts near 35 to 40 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 25-35 kt. Potential peak gusts near 40 kt.

Saturday night: VFR. NW wind gusts decrease to near 20 kt in the evening, and then diminish altogether overnight.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA conditions develop this evening on the ocean waters with gusts to 25 kt and seas around 5 ft. SCA conditions with gusts up to 25 kt are also expected on the Great South Bay tonight. Winds and seas subside early Wednesday, but 5 ft seas could linger east of Moriches Inlet for much of the morning. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.

Increasing S winds Friday will bring a return to SCA conditions on all waters. There is then potential for gales on all waters Friday night into Saturday behind a cold front passage. Will mention this potential in the HWO. Winds will start weakening late Saturday into Saturday night with a return to sub SCA conditions on Sunday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

October 14: KEWR: 85/1975 KBDR: 80/1990 KNYC: 84/1920 KLGA: 82/1975 KJFK: 82/1990 KISP: 81/1990

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ345-355. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353.