textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gale watch on ocean waters Sunday replaced by a SCA. In addition, a SCA is now up for all waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Much cooler by this evening with periods of fog and drizzle overnight, ending with a period of rain from a cold frontal passage on Sunday.

2. Temperatures warm to near seasonable levels Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by an increasing probability of above normal temperatures for later in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The strong cP airmass in place Tuesday night modifies into Wednesday as high pressure pushes offshore towards Wednesday night. Temperatures will therefore go through a modification and warming trend for the second half of the week. Temperature uncertainty increases Thursday, mainly due to uncertainty around the sfc wind direction. With water temperatures still quite cold a more southerly or easterly component to the wind as opposed to a more westerly component will have a big effect on temperatures. Also, 5 kft temperatures really don't warm significantly until Friday into Saturday. Thus, have stayed with the NBM temperature guidance through Thursday night. However, with a cold front that likely washes out with rising heights just upstream look for the potential for noticeably warmer temperatures than consensus guidance is currently indicating for Friday, and on Saturday as well. For now staying close to the NBM, but there is a higher than average chance for adjustments going forward in time.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Sunday: VFR. SW winds G20kt daytime, becoming W to WSW late in the day.

Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G15-20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Low chance MVFR or lower possible in any showers. W winds around 10 kt with G15-20 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. N winds becoming NE at 10 kt or less.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters.

A strong easterly flow will gust up to 30 kt into this evening, strongest on the ocean waters. However, funneling down LI Sound may produce similar gusts for a time. Winds then relax some overnight as a warm front pushes into the area. SCA headlines are expected to come down on the non-ocean waters by early Sunday morning. However, seas will remain above 5 ft on the ocean and southwest winds will then ramp up later Sunday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Once again, gusts up to 30 kt will be possible. A strong inversion over the waters is expected to keep gusts below gale force. Winds will then diminish in the afternoon, becoming westerly in the evening. SCA seas are likely linger on the ocean for much of Sunday night.

Marginal small craft conditions are possible in NW flow Tuesday, possibly lingering on the eastern ocean waters Tuesday night. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail for mid week during Wednesday into Thursday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.