textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall expanded across the area for Monday.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon.
2) Localized flash flooding possible Monday and Monday night.
3) Thunderstorms possible Monday. Some could be severe although confidence in the exact details are low at this time.
4) Showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 4
Southwest flow aloft looks to set up by late Thu into Fri. This would help to trigger showers and tstms across the area, with the western portion of the area favored. Long Island into coastal CT could remain dry thru the period, with most of the activity from NJ into the Lower Hudson Valley. The 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have come in in good agreement, so confidence in the overall timing of the pattern is increasing. In this setup however, the heaviest rain could end up west of the cwa but that is a highly uncertain detail this far out.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Potential MVFR in isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon.
Monday-Monday night: MVFR or lower with rain. Chance of thunderstorms. S-SE gusts 20-30 kt during the daytime, strongest near the coast.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly north and west of NYC.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Gusts are expected to diminish blw SCA levels early this eve. The advy has been unchanged and will expire at 6pm. Winds and seas will be blw SCA levels on Sun, then ramp up especially on the ocean late Mon and Mon night. Waves subside on Tue, with high pres likely keeping things blw SCA levels Wed and Thu.
Rip Currents...
There is a moderate rip current risk today at ocean beaches with S swells 2-3 ft at 8 seconds.
The rip current risk is expected to be low on Sunday with subsiding S swells.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
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