textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Probabilities for snow Sunday into early Monday have increased.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Confidence increasing in a winter storm Sunday into Monday.

2.) A prolonged period of below freezing temperatures is expected beginning Friday night and continuing through the middle of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Return flow around an offshore area of high pressure will help lift a weak warm front through the area tonight. This will allow temperatures to remain nearly steady or slowly rise overnight before peaking in the low to mid 40s Thursday afternoon. The warm frontal passage may be enough to spark a few rain or snow showers late this afternoon into tonight. Any precipitation will be light, with any snowfall accumulations limited to a few tenths of an inch.

The brief reprieve from the cold ends quickly as a cold front crosses the area Thursday evening. This front will usher in a colder airmass for Friday, with highs only rising to around 30 inland and just a few degrees above freezing near the coast.

A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives Friday night as another cold front crosses the area. Under cold air advection, temperatures Friday night will drop into the lower single digits across typically cooler locations to around 10 across the New York City metro. These temperatures combined with 10-15 mph winds will result in wind chills ranging from 0 to -10, which may eventually warrant cold weather headlines.

After near advisory-level wind chills early Saturday morning, the afternoon remains in a frigid airmass. Records for the lowest maximum temperature could be tied or broken for some of the local climate sites on Saturday. See the climate section below for the current records. High temperatures each day from Sunday through Wednesday are expected to be mainly in the 20s with lows in teens to single digits. Wind chills could approach advisory thresholds Monday night into Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: VFR. W winds 5-10 kt, gusts diminishing through the night.

Friday: VFR. W winds becoming NW gusts 20-25 kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday night into Monday: Snow becoming likely with IFR and N-NE G20kt. Snow ending late Monday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds will increase through the afternoon, with gusts to 25kt expected on the ocean waters, the Great South Bay, and the eastern Long Island Sound by late afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for these areas. Elsewhere, winds will remain sub SCA-criteria, with gusts to around 20 kt expected.

SCA conditions will continue on the ocean waters through the day on Thursday, and may expand over the non-ocean waters for a period late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Winds should then briefly subside on all waters early Friday morning before increasing again Friday afternoon in association with a cold frontal passage.

Relatively tranquil conditions are expected Saturday through Saturday night with seas subsiding on a weakening NW to N flow. Low pressure then brings a chance of gales across most, if not all, waters for at least Sunday into Sunday night and possibly lingering into Monday.

CLIMATE

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 24: KEWR: 15/1936 KBDR: 20/2014 KNYC: 6/1882 KLGA: 18/1987 KJFK: 19/1987 KISP: 19/2014

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ332-345. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.