textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisory issued for all waters Monday, continuing on the ocean waters through at least Tuesday.

SPS issued for elevated risk of fire spread for Monday for much of the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated risk of fire spread across much of the region on Monday.

2) Moderating temps for Monday, rising to 10 to 15 degrees above seasonable on Tuesday.

3) A slow-moving, strong frontal system will bring potential for periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday Night.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Over the last 24 hrs, models have trended to only partial phasing of the closed SW US upper low with broad northern stream trough across north Central US during the early to mid week. The result will still dig and deepen a -(2) STD trough into the Central US/Mid Mississippi River valley by midweek, but slightly weaker and shallower than 24 hrs previous. Good agreement with the trough gradually sliding to the Thu into Fri east coast late week

At the surface, still good agreement that this will result in a slow moving frontal system (with a series of low pressure waves along it) sliding towards the area mid to late week. This will likely bring periods of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms Wed into Thu Night.

Fairly good model agreement on the first round on Wednesday morning into afternoon, associated with lift from approaching southern stream upper jet and weak shortwave enregy and strengthening LLJ/theta-e advection of +(1-2 STD) PWAT (weakly unstable) airmass ahead of approaching cold front and weak low pressure.

Potential for a period of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms has trended lower for the Thu into Thu Night in response to deep layered lift ahead of approaching trough axis/primary low pressure. Earlier mentioned weaker/shallower mid-level trough trend, has shifted the primary low track a bit farther south and reduced the gulf moisture transport up the coast. A track to the south of the region, would keep heaviest downpour and tstm activity south of the area. This NWP southward shift of the primary low is meaningful, as it has been consistent in the AI GFS/ECMWF models for at least the last few days. Accordingly, NWP ensemble probabilities of 1" of precip in 24hr have decreased to below 20%. 00z CSU-MLP excessive rainfall probs have decreased as well.

Since this system is still 4 days away, with SW upper low not coming onshore till Tuesday and a complex northern stream upper low interaction over Hudsons Bay, it bears watching for a reversal trend and favorable heavy rain synoptic set-up. More details as we progress through the mid week period.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of rain showers and MVFR, mainly north and west of NYC terminals in the evening and night. SW wind gusts near 20-30 kt, strongest near the coast in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday: Showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms. MVFR or lower possible at times. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Thursday: Showers with MVFR or lower, tapering off in the evening.

Friday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Nearshore gusts will diminish this evening, but marginal SW SCA winds likely develop on all waters Mon Am with SCA seas likely developing on the ocean waters with combo of 2 ft E and SE swells and building S wind waves.

SCA conditions expected on the ocean (likely on nearshore waters during the day Tuesday and Wednesday as well) thru Wednesday with strengthening and persistent S/SW winds ahead of an approaching frontal system. Potential for marginal gales gusts on the ocean Tue aft through Wed with strengthening llj overhead.

SCA conds could continue Thu into Thu Night, particularly on the ocean, depending on track of a developing coastal low.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.