textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the area through Wednesday. However, temperatures may be cooler than anticipated due to increasing wildfire smoke.

High risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches continues into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions continue through at least Wednesday. However, temperatures may be limited by wildfire smoke from Canada.

2) Unsettled conditions expected this weekend into early next week with showers and thunderstorms.

3) High risk of rip currents today into Wednesday, particularly through Wednesday morning (see Marine discussion).

KEY MESSAGE 2

The mainly zonal flow aloft at the end of the week becomes more affected by the large upper low over eastern Canada for the weekend. Potentially several shortwaves moves through this weekend, with deeper troughing looking to set up next week over the eastern CONUS.

Guidance is currently struggling with this pattern a bit more than usual. Latest GFS shows two more distinct shortwaves moving through this weekend, keeping showers/thunderstorm chances through Sunday, where other guidance has a drying trend for Sunday. Regardless, there is potential for showers/thunderstorms each day through the start of next week.

It is too far out for details on strength/severity of any thunderstorms. Latest CIPS and CSU MLP guidance shows low probabilities for severe weather Sunday through Tuesday. Additionally, given the airmass, anything that does develop will likely be able to produce heavy downpours. The latest GFS shows pwat values between 1.75 and 2.0 inches Saturday into Monday. There remains large spread between the NBM 10th and 90th percentile 72hr QPF ending Wednesday at 12z. This is a result of the large spread in overall guidance solutions currently. The spread is roughly between a few tenths to 2.5 inches over this 3 day period.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late Wednesday afternoon: Smoke could lower vsby to MVFR especially E of the NYC metros. A late day tstm with strong gusty winds and brief IFR vsby is also possible, coverage appears sparse attm. WNW winds 10-15G20kt.

Wednesday night: Smoke with MVFR/local IFR vsby possible.

Thursday: Smoke with MVFR vsby possible in the morning, otherwise VFR. W winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: MVFR or lower cond possible in showers/tstms.

MARINE

A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters, LI Sound east of the CT River, and the eastern and south shore bays. This is due to a increasing SW flow with gusts of 25-30kt. Ocean seas will build to 4-7 ft, highest east. SCA conditions are forecast to end for the non-ocean waters and the ocean waters between Sandy Hook and Fire Island Inlet early Wednesday morning. The remainder of the ocean zones out 20 nm will stay up into Wednesday morning due to lingering seas of 5-6 ft.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters through Saturday.

Rip Currents:

The rip risk is increasing to high through late day, just as most lifeguards and beach patrols finish routine daily operations. The higher risk, will be enhanced by greater than usual tidal fluctuations due to the upcoming new moon.

Wednesday looks to start with a high risk for rip current with 4-6 ft SW wind waves, gradually subsiding through the day as winds WSW winds decrease. Eastern LI beaches are likely to hold onto the high risk through the afternoon as wind waves remain elevated at 3-5ft through the afternoon, while NYC/ W LI beaches likely fall back to a moderate risk.

Forecast is leaned towards a greater margin of safety.

The risk lowers to moderate for Thursday as swell continues to weaken. A lingering 2-3 ft 6s SW swell will combine with about a 10 kt S flow to bring the moderate risk. There is potential for southern Brooklyn and Queens to lower to a low risk by subsequent shifts as they should be less impacted by the SW swell.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

July 15: KEWR: 104/1995 KBDR: 97/1995 KNYC: 102/1995 KLGA: 103/1995 KJFK: 99/1983 KISP: 97/1995

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 15: KEWR: 82/1995 KBDR: 76/2013 KNYC: 84/1995 KLGA: 83/1995 KJFK: 79/1995 KISP: 77/1995

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>010. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ011-012. NY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-078- 176>179. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ079>081. High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ332-340- 345-355. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.