textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming up for Thursday, otherwise dry with near normal temperatures into Saturday.

2) An area of low pressure will bring rain into the area for Sunday and Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Tropical Storm Isaias will strengthen into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico the next 24h, making landfall early Saturday morning along the eastern Gulf Coast. Refer to the latest official track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for additional details.

There is a high likelihood of the remnant moisture from the system interacting with mid-latitude energy, bringing a period of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall across the region on Sunday. Model consensus is for about an inch of rainfall, with the NBM90th percentile 2 to 2.5 inches. The system looks to be progressive enough to spare the region of a more substantial rainfall. In addition, there is not much evidence the system will have much instability work with, albeit precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches. This also looks to about a 12 to 18 hour period of rainfall with hourly rates likely well under an inch. However, it is still too early to be specific with rainfall amounts due to some uncertainty in the track and location of the heaviest rainfall.

Winds do not look to be much of a factor Sunday with departing high pressure over the western Atlantic and weak low pressure approaching from the SW. Expect a S/SE flow. There is a full moon and coastal locations will need about 1 to 2 ft to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks. This will come into better focus over the next day or two as we get into the window for surge guidance. Right now, it is looking like a low end event.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday: VFR. WSW/W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR daytime. Chance of rain with MVFR/IFR cond at night.

Monday: MVFR or lower in rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA has been issued for the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point out 20 nm, from late tonight into early THursday afternoon. A strengthening SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front will produce gusts up to 25 kt and seas of 4 to 5 ft. Winds and seas will subside and become more westerly in the afternoon.

Otherwise, expecting pressure gradient to not be that steep and for conditions to mostly remain below SCA thresholds through the weekend. Although, S/SE winds could bring a chance for SCA conditions on the ocean waters Sunday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350- 353.