textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes since last update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot weather continues into Monday, but relief is in sight later this week.

2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon into evening. An isolated severe storm possible. Afterwards, we remain dry the remainder of the week except for Wednesday night into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A warm front Monday will lead to a warm and unstable airmass over the area. Then a cold front is anticipated to pass through the area with shortwave energy aloft late afternoon into the evening. Ahead of it, PWATs will peak 1.9 to 2.1 inches. With the aid of lift from the front, a scattered to broken line of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to track across the area west to east from 4 PM to 11 PM. The timing of the front is still somewhat variable among the available among available model guidance.

An isolated severe thunderstorm with brief downpours are possible. 12Z model soundings and available 12Z CAMs have a near- storm environment of 30 to 45 kt Bulk Shear, SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg (some CAMs up to 4500 J/kg), DCAPE 900-1100 J/kg, and peak 0-3km lapse rated of 8.2 to 9 C/km.

For now, SPC has expanded a marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe thunderstorms over the western two-thirds of the CWA. This risk appears reasonable. The severe risk does appear to be less if the front arrives too late in the evening, so it will really all hinge on the timing of the front. The primary risk with these severe storms will be straight-line damaging winds.

The remainder of the week is anticipated to stay dry with only minor shots of any precipitation from passing shortwaves and fronts. The only good chance for another round of rainfall after Monday appears to be Wednesday evening into Thursday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR in the early evening.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night-Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms and MVFR. W gusts 15-20 kt possible on Thursday.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the middle of next week.

Rip Currents: Lingering S-SE swells will lead to a moderate rip current risk through Tuesday at ocean beaches.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009-010. NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for NYZ069>075-078-080- 176>179. NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for NJZ004-006-103>108. MARINE...None.