textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

High pressure over the area will weaken this morning. A cold front will pass through this afternoon, followed by strong high pressure building from the west tonight into Friday. The high will pass east Friday night as weak low pressure passes well to the south Friday night and heads well out to sea on Saturday. A cold front will move through Sunday night, with Arctic high pressure building in behind it. This high will likely remain in control through early next week. Low pressure may impact the area Wednesday as it passes to the north and west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Points:

* A dry cold frontal passage will take place this afternoon.

* Low wind chills and record low temps possible at some spots tonight.

Approaching front today should come through in split fashion, with a pre-frontal trough roughly around midday, then the actual cold front later this afternoon into early this evening. Model fcst soundings are much drier than earlier cycles due to downslope flow and presence of drier air aloft, so have removed mention of precip despite marginally favorable parameters showing weak low level instability and minimal SSQ parameter values which can sometimes work well even for forecasting snow showers. Think there will be mostly virga with fropa, and wouldn't entirely rule out a stray flurry well NW of NYC from about 18Z-21Z with the actual cold frontal passage. Streamers from the Great Lakes following fropa are unlikely to make it into the area this evening, but are still something worth monitoring.

Temps reaching the upper 30s/lower 40s this afternoon will plummet tonight, reaching the single digits in some spots well inland, teens most elsewhere, and the lower 20s in/just outside NYC and out by Montauk. Some record low temps may be approached or set.

Winds should veer/increase veer today with the approach and passage of the pre-frontal trough and actual cold front, with W flow 10-15 gusting up to 20 mph this morning, then WNW flow 15-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph this afternoon, and NW flow 20-25 mph gusting to 25-35 mph late today into this evening after fropa. Winds then quickly diminish late tonight as high pressure starts to build in. Tonight's winds in combination with falling temps will lead to wind chills in the single digits and teens as early as this evening.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Cold conditions continue, especially daytime Friday.

* Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with some light snow/rain Friday night into Saturday.

Temps on Fri as the high builds across will only reach the mid/upper 20s inland, lower 30s most elsewhere, and the mid 30s across eastern Long Island.

Still maintaining a 30-40 PoP as the precip shield with a srn stream low passing off Hatteras and moving nearly due E out to sea skirts the area. Precip type should be mostly light snow with little to no accumulation Fri night, then light rain or a rain/snow mix on Sat as temps warm and mid levels dry out.

Low temps Fri night and Sat night will be mostly in the 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Sat will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Points:

* Mainly dry conditions with below normal temperatures expected early next week. * A cold air mass appears likely Sunday night through Tuesday. Highs on Monday may struggle to rise above freezing even down to the coast.

A stronger cold front will move across the area Sunday night that will usher in a cold air mass for early next week. The cold air looks to hang around into Tuesday. Lows Monday look to fall into the teens and low 20s with highs on Monday in the upper 20s/lower 30s. Wind chills will be as low as the single digits well inland and teens elsewhere both Sunday night and Mon night.

Lows Tuesday morning may be in the teens for much of the area, with highs moderating a bit into the 30s. Moderating temperatures are signaled with the latest model consensus indicating highs rebounding into upper 30s inland and lower/mid 40s near the coast.

A clipper system may move across the Northeast on Wednesday, but this is a week out and models/ensembles differ on timing and strength of the low pressure.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow during the late afternoon/night, especially for southern and eastern terminals.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of the NYC metros.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Seas 5+ ft should return to the ocean waters from east to west overnight into this morning as westerly flow gradually increases to near 20 kt. Gusts over 25 kt expected on all waters early this afternoon, then NW gales expected on the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays of Long Island late today into this evening following a cold frontal passage, with winds gusting to 30 kt on the Harbor/wrn Sound/south shore bays. Seas should peak at 5-8 ft on the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet, 4-7 on the ocean W of there, and 5 ft on the Long Island side of the central/ern Sound.

Blowout tides may be possible on the western Sound with the low tide early this evening, with water levels approaching 2 ft below MLLW. A low water advisory may eventually be issued.

SCA cond on the ocean and the ern Sound/bays late tonight quickly ramp down, with quiet cond through the weekend. The next chance for SCA conditions occurs late Sunday night into Monday as a cold front moves across the waters.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport and Stamford CT tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as low pressure passes well south.

CLIMATE

Low temps Fri morning may reach daily record lows at KJFK/KBDR, and may also get close at KLGA. High temps Fri may also be close to daily record low maxes at KLGA/KJFK.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935 KBDR: 17/1989 KNYC: 11/1926 KLGA: 21/1942 KJFK: 20/1966 KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002 KBDR: 28/2002 KNYC: 22/1886 KLGA: 32/2002 KJFK: 33/2007 KISP: 30/2002

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-332-340-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338-345.