textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Strong high pressure building from the west will pass east this afternoon. A weak low pressure trough extending north from low pressure moving off the southern Mid Atlantic coast will impact the area mainly late tonight into Saturday morning. Weak high pressure will then be over the area Saturday night into Sunday. A strong cold front will move through Sunday night. Behind it, high pressure will build from the west, remaining in control through Tuesday. Low pressure passing to the north may impact the area during the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

NW-N winds are quickly diminishing attm, with temps falling through the teens and lower 20s. As temps bottom out in the single digits well inland, teens most elsewhere, and lower 20s in/just outside NYC, some daily record lows will likely be tied or set at KBDR/KLGA/KJFK. Temps will get no higher than 25-30 inland, the lower 30s most elsewhere, and the mid/upper 30s across eastern Long Island, and some daily record low maxes may be approached at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK.

Cloud shield associated with the developing low to the south may overspread NYC metro and Long Island for a time this morning, then may briefly retreat late this morning before overspreading the entire CWA this afternoon. There is a slight chance that some light snow or rain may reach NYC and the south shore of Long Island late this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Tricky situation involving p-type along the coast tonight into Sat morning with a weak inverted trough extending from the low passing well to the south, as fcst soundings show low level moisture confined to levels at temps typically too warm for ice nucleation (-10C), and with low temps at the surface cold enough for wintry wx, mostly in the 20s, and lower 30s in NYC and across the forks of Long Island. Sometimes ice nucleation can still occur in situations like this where there is maritime influence. Due to the uncertainty have forecast light snow or light freezing rain/drizzle along the coast where temps remain below freezing, and light snow/rain where temps are above. Inland have kept p-type light snow. QPF is very light, only a few hundredths of an inch at best across eastern Long Island and a trace to 0.01" elsewhere, and only have 20-30 PoP at most. So would not expect more than a very light coating of snow, or a very light glaze of ice where freezing rain if any does occur. A winter wx advisory may need to be issued later on as it becomes more apparent which areas would likely experience light freezing rain/drizzle.

Temps after precip ends on Sat will rise to the upper 30s/lower 40s, then fall back once again to the 20s and lower 30s. With no change in air mass for Sunday high temps should once again reach the upper 30s/lower 40s in most spots.

Cold fropa Sunday night will be preceded by a chance of snow showers mainly inland and out east. Fropa should take place after midnight, with colder air starting to coming in on a gusty NW flow, and lows from the upper teens well inland to the 20s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Points:

* Some of the coldest air of the season so far moves in early next week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday likely in the upper 20 and 30s region-wide, with morning wind chills in the single digits and teens.

Troughing aloft across much of the Eastern US to start the period. A cold front moves across the area Sunday night that ushers in a modifying arctic air mass through early next week.

A 1030 mb surface high builds east over the Mid Atlantic into Tuesday, keeping conditions cold and dry locally. Daytime highs both Monday and Tuesday look to remain mostly in the 30s, or even 20s inland, and a gusty NW flow behind the front will add to the cold. Morning wind chills Tuesday could fall into the single digits to near 0 inland, and teens along the coast, which would not warrant any cold headlines.

A clipper system may move through the Northeast on Wednesday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, with potentially another system later in the week.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Late tonight: MVFR, especially close to the coast. Low chance of mixed precipitation and IFR.

Saturday: MVFR possible in the morning with a low chance of mainly light rain E of the NYC metros. Otherwise, VFR prevails.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and light rain/snow mix at night.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Have replace gales with SCA on the easternmost ocean/Sound waters, and SCA also continues for the central ocean/Sound. Winds/seas should rapidly come down before daybreak, with quiet conditions through the weekend.

SCA conditions are possible through much of next week beginning Monday as multiple low pressure systems could impact the area.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Water levels are running high around the times of high tide due to yesterday's full moon, with departures of 1 ft or less needed to reach minor flood thresholds today and Saturday. Latest combo of bias-corrected ETSS, STOFS, and NYHOPS ensemble 50th percentile guidance has trended upward slightly, and indicates that water levels may get close to minor flood thresholds with the high tide late this morning in isolated spots along the SW CT coastline. Due to the isolated nature have not issued a statement.

Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds with the Saturday morning late morning/midday high tide cycle in spots along the back bays of Nassau and Queens, tidal waterways of NE NJ, the SW CT coastline, and at Shinnecock and Montauk out east. A coastal flood statement may eventually be issued to address this.

CLIMATE

Low temps this morning may reach daily record lows at KBDR/KLGA/KJFK. High temps today may also be close to daily record low maxes at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935 KBDR: 17/1989 KNYC: 11/1926 KLGA: 21/1942 KJFK: 20/1966 KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002 KBDR: 28/2002 KNYC: 22/1886 KLGA: 32/2002 KJFK: 33/2007 KISP: 30/2002

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for ANZ331-332-340. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ350-353.