textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated weather as snow is quickly exiting to the east by early afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light snow ending early this afternoon, followed by wind chills in the single digits late tonight.

2) Mixed precip event likely for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

A warm advection precip event is likely on Tuesday. A broad area of weak low pressure stretching westward through the Ohio Valley results in an approaching warm front. Its unclear if/when the front actually pushes through the forecast area, but what is more certain is that an elevated warm layer will shift into the region. Plenty of cold air will be in place at the onset of precip, with snow as the anticipated precip type. Due to the warm nose aloft, cannot rule out eventual freezing rain for inland areas. Freezing rain could be possible even for the city and urban corridor of NE NJ, owing to an earlier arrival of the precip. Thermal profiles slowly warm up through the day with precip across most of the area falling as plain rain in the afternoon.

As it stands, chances of eventual advisory issuances would more likely be related to freezing rain versus accumulated snowfall. Even if sufficient warm air precluding snow takes a longer time to arrive, snow amounts would probably remain below advisory thresholds. The higher threat of an advisory would appear to be over parts of the interior that may take longer to rise above freezing at the surface while the air aloft becomes too warm for snow growth.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain from south to north during the afternoon and evening. S winds G15-20kt.

Wednesday and Thursday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain. S wind G15-20 kt possible on Thu.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-advisory conditions are expected for the most part through Tuesday. Conditions may get close for a time on the ocean tonight with N flow gusting over 20 kt and seas up to 4 ft. Light freezing spray expected on the ocean waters tonight into Monday morning as well.

There are several weak waves of low pressure that will pass through later this week with winds and seas on the ocean getting to around SCA criteria Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then again at the end of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.