textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SPC has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Friday. The primary threat will be damaging winds.

The Gale Watches on the ocean waters have been converted to Small Craft Advisories for Friday, but continue as Gale Watches for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong frontal system brings showers late tonight into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms primarily during Friday evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a squall line that is forecast to move through.

2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW winds later Friday night into Saturday.

As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold front look for strong, gusty winds behind the front which may last right through a good portion of the afternoon. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the fall is likely for the first half of the weekend. Daytime highs Saturday will be in the lower and middle 50s with a gusty NNW wind. Widespread 30s and lower 40s are expected for lows Saturday night. Some temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Late tonight: Mainly VFR, possible MVFR -SHRA. NW winds G25kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening.

Sunday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

The pressure gradient decreases overnight with sub advisory conditions prevailing. However, conditions ramp up during Friday morning with small craft conditions quickly developing in a southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through across the waters late Friday night with the winds becoming W, then NW during Saturday morning. Gales over the ocean waters are looking less likely for Friday into Friday night, and have converted Gale Watches to Small Craft Advisories for this period. Gale Watches remain in effect Saturday as there remains some uncertainty with the winds during this time frame, but continues to look less likely at this time.

For the non-ocean waters, SCA conditions across the eastern and central sound, Peconic and Gardiner's Bays, while the western sound and harbor look to not reach SCA.

By Friday night, SCA conditions expected all non-ocean waters lasting through the day Saturday and possibly into the first half of Saturday night, before subsiding to below SCA conditions.

Small craft conditions will likely linger for much of Saturday night on the ocean waters before sub advisory conditions return during Sunday morning. With high pressure building across the waters Sunday and settling nearby into early next week sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ355.