textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Sunshine and seasonably cool conditions close the weekend. There is potential for frost formation across parts of the interior tonight.

2) A non-tropical low develops east of the Carolinas early this week and slowly tracks north off the Mid Atlantic through mid to late week. Coastal impacts remain possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2

An area of surface low pressure developing from a cut off upper low off the Carolina coast is expected to deepen early this week as it drifts slowly N off the Mid Atlantic coast.

Global dynamical and AI based guidance continues to exhibit notable spread in the evolution and track of the low, with varying degrees of impacts locally. The 00Z GEFS and EPS are more progressive and generally weaker with the system, pulling the center further out to sea by Thu/Fri as its influenced by a trough swinging east into the N Atlantic. Their AI counterparts offer a deeper low placed farther west and closer to the coast. The latter appears to be an unlikely, though still possible, solution that will need to be monitored in subsequent cycles.

For now, persistent NE flow much can be expected much of this week, with the possibility of minor coastal impacts by midweek. Given the continued spread in outcomes and subsequent potential range of impacts, forecast confidence remains lower mid to late this week.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday: VFR. N-NE winds G15-25 kt, highest near the coast.

Wednesday: VFR. N-NE winds G20-30 kt, highest near the coast. Thursday: VFR. N winds G15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

N wind gusts around 25 kt continue on the near shore ocean waters early this morning with seas around 5 ft. Winds and seas lower by mid morning, and then sub SCA conditions expected on all waters through the rest of the day.

Winds and seas gradually ramp back up to SCA criteria on the ocean Monday morning. Persistent NE winds can then be expected Monday thru Thursday as slow moving low pressure remains S of the waters. SCA conditions can be expected on most waters thru the period, with gales possible on the ocean, especially in the 20-60nm offshore zones where a Gale Watch remains in effect. Ocean seas above 10 ft develop by late Monday and potentially continue through at least Friday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068. NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350- 353-355. Gale Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ380-383-385.