textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Intermittent rain showers continue into tonight.

2) Briefly drying out late this week, before another round of rain moves through Saturday.

3) A frontal wave passing nearby or to the southeast Sunday night into Monday night should bring a light to moderate rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 3

NWP guidance depicts an upper trough over the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes Sunday night, amplifying and progressing to ern Canada and the Northeast Mon-Mon night, with leading energy from multiple branches of the jet stream. Degree of phasing of these multiple streams with the longwave upper trough will ultimately determine strength and track of a frontal wave expected to develop and pass nearby or just to the SE, and associated rainfall. Latest NBM appears to be keying in on a more consolidated frontal wave passing close to the area a la the 00Z ECMWF, with 3/4 to around 1 inch of rain, while the less phased 12Z GFS and ECMWF are lighter, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch.

Above normal temps from Sat night into Sunday night should trend cooler for early next week, from near normal to a few degrees below normal.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. SW to W wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with showers north and west of NYC terminals during the day, otherwise VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower at night for all terminals with showers likely. Southerly wind gusts 15- 20 kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Monday: Showers likely early, chance of showers afternoon into evening. MVFR or lower possible day into early eve. Mainly VFR thereafter at night. SW to NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory continues on all waters through the rest of the day with SW gusts 25 to 30 kt and ocean seas between 5 and 8 ft. Conditions begin to gradually improve this evening behind a cold frontal passage, though ocean seas linger aoa 5 ft tonight, before lowering Thursday AM. Sub SCA conditions then persist through at least Friday.

Increasing SSW flow on Saturday likely brings a return to SCA conditions on at least the ocean, where gusts above 25 kt develop and seas build to above 5 ft by late afternoon. Non ocean coastal waters may also see wind gusts exceed SCA criteria. Winds and seas lower Saturday night, with sub advisory conditions then anticipated into early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ355.