textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winter storm watches have been issued for the entire area for Sunday into Monday.

Coastal flood watches have also been issued for much of the Long Island shoreline and along western Long Island Sound for Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Weak low pressure passing to the south will bring light precipitation tonight, then an approaching weakening low will bring another round of light precipitation Saturday night.

2) An intense coastal storm will likely bring a heavy wet snowfall and strong winds from Sunday into Monday. Near blizzard to blizzard conditions may be possible along the coast from Sunday night into Monday morning.

3) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Monday.

4) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the 40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt.

KEY MESSAGE 4

There are two features, a weak wave of low pressure midweek and a passing cold front towards late week that will give these next potential precipitation events. With the absence of offshore cyclogenesis in the forecast mid to late week, there will not be as much potential for the precipitation to grow with subsequent forecasts. Aloft, the flow in mid levels and is not too amplified and mostly zonal outside of a quick shortwave giving brief amplification early Friday.

High temperatures forecast Tuesday will be getting to low to mid 30s, then upper 30s to near 40 Wednesday, more in the 40s Thursday and then back to upper 30s to near 40 next Friday. This will allow for snowmelt each day and with mostly sub-freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent refreeze of snow melt.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday: VFR to start. MVFR/IFR conditions are becoming increasingly likely in developing snow Sunday. E/NE winds G20-25 kt, becoming NE-N Sunday night with G30-35 kt. Highest winds and gusts are expected at the coastal terminals. Winds could be stronger depending on a coastal low track. Potential for LLWS Sunday night with 50kt at 2kft.

Monday: MVFR or lower in snow. N winds G30-35 kt. Winds could be stronger depending on coastal low track.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in snow or rain/snow mix possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Seas were 1-2 ft above forecast at 44065, so have extended the SCA for the ocean W of Fire Island Inlet through tonight. East of there, SCA remains in effect through 11 AM Sat, with seas 5-7 ft and E winds gusting up to 25 kt early this evening.

Storm watch issued for the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet for Sunday night into Mon as N-NE winds with the intense coastal storm could gust to 50-55 kt. Gale watch in effect for the remaining waters for gusts to 45 kt. Seas could peak as high as 12-19 ft on the ocean, 6- 10 ft on the Sound E of Orient, and 5-7 ft on the open central Sound waters, from late Sunday night into Mon morning. Conditions ramp down to SCA on all waters for Mon night.

SCA potential remains Tuesday through Thursday on the ocean. Non- ocean waters will have SCA potential for wind gusts Tuesday and mainly below SCA wind gusts Tuesday night through Thursday.

CLIMATE

With the potential major snowstorm Sunday into Monday, there is the potential for some snowfall records to be broken. Here are the records for Sunday and Monday for the climate sites:

Sun 2/22 Mon 2/23

Central Park, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972 LaGuardia, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972 John F Kennedy, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987 Newark, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987 Islip, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987 Bridgeport, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for CTZ005>012. Coastal Flood Watch late Sunday night for CTZ009-010. NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Watch late Sunday night for NYZ071-073-078-176- 177. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for NYZ079-081. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for NYZ080-179. NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-355. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353. Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ355.