textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisories cancelled for the non ocean waters, and extended through Friday night for the ocean waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Potential dense fog late tonight into Friday morning mainly for coastal areas.

2. Minimal tidal flooding impacts at best for tonight.

3. Showers on Sunday could produce local downpours that would lead to brief nuisance flooding at most.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Heights aloft fall by the latter half of the weekend as ridging shifts offshore ahead of digging trough into the Eastern US. Surface low pressure deepens as it drives through the Great Lakes, with attendant fronts lifting toward the region, bringing the next widespread rainfall.

Warm front approaches Saturday, with a few showers possible, before another round arrives ahead of the cold front on Sunday. A few embedded thunderstorms can't be entirely ruled out with the activity, but instability will be lacking, so not anticipating a local severe weather threat. Global guidance progs PW up to 1.5 inches though, toward the top of climo this time of year, so sufficient moisture to tap into that could translate into localized downpours ahead of the boundary.

Impacts likely limited to the possibility of some minor urban and poor drainage flooding at most, mainly Sunday afternoon. Overall, QPF is light given the progressive nature of the system, averaging at or under a quarter of an inch.

Cold air advection kicks in behind the front, and the milder air mass in place over the weekend will be replaced by a more seasonable one, with afternoon temperatures likely in the 40s and 50s for most through mid next week.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday: Gradually becoming VFR into the afternoon. SW winds G15-20kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance for MVFR or lower Sat night. Chance of showers. SE-S winds G15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers. SW winds G20kt daytime. W-NW winds G20 kt at night.

Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G15-20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any showers. W winds around 10 kt with G15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA cancelled on the non ocean waters. Isolated gusts to 25 kt were still occurring on the far western Sound per obs at Execution Rocks, otherwise winds are diminishing.

Meanwhile, ocean seas continue to run 6-9 ft which is 1-2 ft above NWPS forecast, highest west due to persistent ENE flow up to 20 kt with some gusts 25-30 kt. With this in mind, it now appears that any lull daytime Fri will be brief and that seas will build back to 5-6 ft by late Fri afternoon into Fri night or early Sat morning as winds shift S after warm fropa and increase to near 20 kt.

Dense fog may be possible late tonight into Fri morning as a warm front approaches. Chose not to issue the advy until timing of onset of lower vsbys becomes clearer.

SCA cond are also likely Sat night through Sunday as a frontal system moves through, with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas 7-10 ft likely. Potential for gales on the ocean looks low due to a strong sfc-based inversion and LLJ only 50-55 kt. The LLJ strengthens to our east Sunday afternoon so any gales are more likely to our east.

Ocean seas then likely linger above 5 ft through at least the first half of Monday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.