textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

1. Frost advisory issued for portions of the region tonight. 2. Increased forecast wind speeds for Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry, gusty and seasonably mild with elevated fire weather concerns for most of the area into early this evening. On Sunday, dry, gusty in the afternoon, with slightly below seasonable temps, but higher min RH values (30-40%).

2. Frost conditions for E LI, coastal SE CT, N Westchester, Rockland, and W Passaic counties tonight.

3. Unseasonably mild/warm (10 to 20 degrees above normal) on Monday with SW winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely across NYC/NJ metro and interior in the aft/eve.

4. Forecast remains on track for a significant warmup next week, peaking during the Wednesday into Thursday timeframe.

KEY MESSAGE 4

It will be unseasonably warm Tuesday through next Saturday with the potential for record warmth mid week. A broad upper ridge centered over the Southeast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a confluent flow to the north will produce a warm, deep-layeed WSW flow. High temperatures from Tuesday into Thursday will average 15 to 25 degrees above normal. NBM box and whisker plots are generally around the 25th percentile for the max temperature forecast. The median (50th percentile), is right skewed, toward the warmer side of the guidance. The experimental NBM 5.0 is also a couple of degrees warmer than the operational. The warmer scenario seems plausible, and even has metro NE NJ Wednesday and Thursday around 90. This would be close to 30 degrees above normal and record breaking for a few of the climate sites (see climate section below). The records going into this timeframe are quite high, getting into the heat wave of 2002. Several climate sites from April 16-18, 2002, reached 90 or higher for 3 consecutive days. Don't see that happening at this time. Additionally, there is the potential for an even longer period of days with record high minimum temperatures.

Where this forecast could go wrong is with the proximity of a frontal boundary to the north of the area during the midweek and at the end of the week as a weak cold front moves into the area. There is about 10 degrees spread in temperatures between the 25th and 75th percentiles Friday and Saturday.

As for rain chances, any convection moving around the ridge into the area at this time looks to be of low probability.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday afternoon: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of showers during the afternoon and evening, MVFR possible. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day, best chances inland, with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA for all waters through this afternoon for nearshore winds gusting to 25 kt. Hazardous ocean seas of 3 to 5 ft, from residual easterly swells and NW winds waves, should subside through this time as well.

Sub SCA conditions tonight into Sunday, although a brief period of late Sun afternoon/early evening southerly 20-25 kt gusts possible at entrance to NY harbor and adjacent near shore waters with seabreeze enhanced S/SE winds.

A strengthening S-SW flow may bring marginal SCA gusts and more likely building SCA seas (4-6 ft) to the ocean waters late Sun Night into Mon night. SCA gusts will be more likely across NY Harbor and western LI Sound Mon aft/eve with deeper mixing (low potential for marginal gale gusts), with marginal SCA gusts possible for remainder of nearshore waters.

Gusts expected to fall below SCA Monday night. A prolonged period of SW flow across the water will largely remain below SCA criteria. However, seas on the ocean waters (particularly east of Fire Island Inlet) may remain marginally near SCA levels(3-5ft) thru midweek with persistent S/SW flow.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures that could be reached:

April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ011-012. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ069-070-079-081. NJ...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-103. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.