textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense Fog Advisory issued on the ocean, LI Bays, and Eastern Sound through 10 AM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather continues with showers possible tonight, possibly lingering into a portion of Sunday. Locally dense fog possible this morning and then again near the coast this evening/tonight.

2) A warming trend begins Sunday and continues through the middle of next week.

3) A strong frontal may moves across the area Wednesday night through Thursday with the next chance of precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 3

A strong frontal system may impact the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Timing of exactly when precip will be most likely is still uncertain, but current model consensus (NBM) indicates overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning when the cold front moves across the area. Temperatures will begin trending down on Thursday, but will still remain above normal. By Friday, temperatures could fall below normal with highs in the lower to middle 40s.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Late Saturday night: IFR and LIFR, or lower. Showers arrive overnight. SW gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in the morning, then VFR possible later in the day.

Monday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR inland, sub VFR more likely along the coast. MVFR or lower possible at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Issued a dense fog advisory on all waters except the NY Harbor and western Sound until 10am. There is a chance the advisory may need to be extended further if visibilities do not improve.

No changes were made to the SCA on the ocean. Lingering 5 ft seas are possible east of Fire Island Inlet this morning. The seas may briefly subside below 5 ft before increasing this evening along with gusts 25-30 kt on all ocean zones. These winds will weaken late Saturday night and Sunday morning as a cold front moves to the east. However, ocean seas will linger around 5 ft into Sunday evening, and possibly east of Fire Island Inlet into Sunday night. Winds on the eastern LI Bays and eastern LI Sound may come close to 25 kt tonight, but not enough confidence to issue an SCA for these waters at this time.

Conditions will then end up below SCA levels Monday through Tuesday. S-SW flow increases on Wednesday ahead of an approaching frontal system bringing the next potential of SCA conditions on the waters.

CLIMATE

Below are record high temperatures for Tuesday March 11 and Wednesday March 12

Tuesday March 11: KEWR: 81/2016 KBDR: 70/2006 KNYC: 79/2016 KLGA: 78/2016 KJFK: 71/2006 KISP: 73/2016

Wednesday March 12: KEWR: 75/2021 KBDR: 67/1977 KNYC: 79/2016 KLGA: 70/1977 KJFK: 68/2016 KISP: 68/1977

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-332- 340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ355.