textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Some rain, mainly light, is expected thru today.

2) A slow-moving frontal system will lead to increasing rain chances mid-to-late week with decreasing temperatures. Thunderstorms are also a concern late Tuesday into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A large upper-level trough will gradually amplify over the Great Plains and Great Lakes Tuesday into Thursday, eventually traversing the region on Friday. Just east of this trough, a stalled front will remain situated to our north and west. Several waves of surface low pressure may pass along it, which will lead to several shots at rainfall mid to late week.

Tuesday will remain mostly under a ridge that gradually exits east. Higher heights will lead to warm temperatures with highs in the mid 60s (for coastal areas) to low 80s (mainly for NE NJ) across the area. Wednesday will also remain warm, but cooler than Tuesday thanks to more clouds and rain. Expect highs in the 60s and low 70s.

Given warmer air, higher humidity, and a nearby frontal system, rain chances increase late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a chance for thunderstorms, as well.

On Thursday, the now amplified longwave trough nears the area which finally sends the main frontal system through the area. This leads to more widespread rainfall, but also cooler and milder temperatures Thursday going into Friday.

Winds become quite gusty as well with tightening pressure gradient between high pressure offshore and approaching frontal system Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there will likely be some limitations with the low level warm air advection and less favorable mixing environment.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Tonight: KGON possible MVFR with mainly light rain. Otherwise VFR.

Sunday: VFR. NW flow 10-15 kt. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Peak gusts to 30 kt possible.

Monday: VFR. SW flow 10-15 kt. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. S-SW flow 10-15 kt. Possible rain showers mainly north and west of NYC terminals at night. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers, possible thunderstorms. S-SW flow 10-15 kt. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels thru today.

Coastal low pressure over the Atlantic will bring winds close to SCA levels on Sunday, with seas on the ocean possibly reaching 5 ft. Since both winds and seas were marginal at this time, did not issue a SCA for the ocean.

Increasing S flow on Mon mean better chances for SCA conditions for the ocean waters, and possibly all waters.

Tuesday through Wednesday, SCA conditions are possible due to an approaching frontal system with some possibility of low-end gales, as well.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.