textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters Friday night through Saturday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front passes through this evening with a return to drier and and more seasonable conditions for tonight into Thursday.

2) A strong frontal system brings showers Thursday night into Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated thunderstorms late Friday afternoon/evening. No significant impacts are anticipated at this time.

3) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend along with Gusty NW wind Friday night into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The main story Friday night into the weekend will be much colder and drier air. Strong, NW gusty winds will follow the cold front passage Friday night and continue through much of Saturday. Peak gusts 30-40 mph are expected, especially Friday night into the first half of Saturday. The pressure gradient begins to relax Saturday afternoon, so gusts should start to lower heading into the evening. One note is there has been a notable trend down in the low level wind field in the guidance over the last 24-36 hours. Winds at the top of the mixed layer are currently progged to peak around 35 kt Friday night into Saturday morning based on forecast sounding analysis. While cannot completely rule out the eventual need for a wind advisory (gusts greater than 45 mph but less than 58 mph), the probabilities seem to be decreasing based on latest trends.

The other story will be the coldest air of the season so far. Temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide Friday night with the gusty NW flow. Highs on Saturday will struggle to rise above 50 degrees inland and only reach the lower 50s elsewhere. These highs are 10-15 degrees below normal for October 17.

Winds should drop off Saturday night with a relaxed pressure gradient and high pressure building just to our west. Temperatures Saturday night could fall close to freezing with upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere.

Some slight moderation is expected Sunday into Monday with temperatures potentially close to normal by Tuesday. High pressure remains in control so dry conditions will continue into early next week.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: Showers move in late with MVFR or lower cond.

Friday: Showers. IFR conditions likely early, improving to VFR in the afternoon for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. Eastern terminals, especially KGON could stay sub-VFR. SW winds G20- 25kt.

Friday night: Showers and possibly a tstm in the evening with mainly MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W-NW winds G25-35kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-35 kt, diminishing in the evening.

Sunday and Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A period of marginal SCA conditions (occasional gusts to 25 kt) likely tonight on the ocean behind the cold front passage tonight into Thu AM, elsewhere nearshore waters should see gusts 20 kt. The flow relaxes Thursday morning into afternoon with conditions below SCA levels through Thursday night.

S flow increases Friday morning as a warm front lifts to the north. Winds will shift to the SW and become gusty 25-30 kt Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. The cold front passage likely occurs Friday evening. Following its passage, winds may gust to around 35 kt on the ocean waters. Per collaboration with neighboring offices, have issued a Gale Watch Friday night through Saturday afternoon. The non ocean waters currently look more marginal, so have left them out for now. Winds should start to weaken late Saturday and gradually fall below SCA levels Saturday night into early Sunday. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels into early next week.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

October 14: KISP: 82/2026

Possible Record High Minimum Temperatures:

October 14: KEWR: 67/1990 KBDR: 64/1990 KNYC: 68/1990 KLGA: 70/1990 KJFK: 67/1990 KISP: 66/1990

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385.