textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry through the next 7 days with the only potential of a shower or thunderstorm late Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Little to no impacts currently anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 1

A warming trend along with dry conditions will continue into Wednesday. High pressure over the area will gradually move offshore late Tuesday into Wednesday. A progressive upper trough will send a cold front towards the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance is in good agreement with the front moving through the area late Thursday or Thursday night. The front will also bring the next chance of showers, mainly late Wednesday night into Thursday evening. The modeled pattern favors limited forcing and only a brief window for deeper moisture. The flow aloft is predominately westerly, which should prevent stronger lift and widespread precip. The latest NBM indicates a low chance PoP (around 30 percent) Thursday afternoon and evening, which looks reasonable. Instability also looks limited, but a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. CSU MLP is not highlighting any probabilities for severe at this time. Little to no impacts are currently anticipated with this chance of precipitation. High pressure and dry conditions will return Friday into next weekend.

The warmest days of the week will be Wednesday and Thursday. Highs may reach the mid to potentially upper 80s in the NYC metro and NE NJ with mainly the lower 80s elsewhere. Seasonably warm conditions are currently expected Friday into next weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Night: VFR. SW to W winds diminishing.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt and showers possible with MVFR late at night.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in SHRA. SW/ gusts around 20 kt possible.

Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Tuesday with high pressure over the waters. SW winds will then increase ahead of an approaching cold front into Wednesday. Wind gusts probably approach 25 kt on the ocean Wednesday afternoon and then spread to the rest of the nearshore waters Wednesday night. These winds will continue into Thursday, and there is a chance of gale force gusts late Wednesday night into Thursday morning east of Fire Island Inlet. Will continue to mention this potential in the HWO. Ocean seas build to 5-7 ft Wednesday night into Thursday, and there is a chance for waves on the LI sound to become 3-4 ft. Winds and seas gradually diminish late Thursday, falling below SCA levels Thursday night. Conditions below SCA levels will continue into next Saturday.

Rip Currents:

A low rip current risk continues into Tuesday with the lack of significant winds or swell.

S-SW winds increase Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and evening. Wind speeds 15-20 kt will help build seas and swell, but more likely late in the day and evening. Have gone with a moderate rip current risk for now, but could become high late in the afternoon or early evening.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.