textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry conditions prevail this week ahead with the coolest temperatures tonight through Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 1

Cold front has moves across most of the area, with gusty NW winds in its wake. A secondary feature entering the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT had showers accompanying it earlier, but those have dissipated.

High pressure will build from tonight into Wed, with a much cooler air mass settling in through Tue night. Coolest stretch of temperatures forecast for tonight through Tuesday night. Lows tonight will range from the 40s to lower 50s, warmer than MOS as blyr should not completely decouple. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower/mid 60s, then clear skies and light winds Tue night will lead to good radiational cooling conditions, so went with colder of the NBM and MOS for temps, with 30s inland, also across coastal SE CT and the Long Island Pine Barrens, with good frost potential in those areas, and 40s elsewhere. The fcst low of 47 at Central Park would be the first time the temp has dipped into the 40s there since May 23rd (low of 49), and the coolest temperature there since May 12th (low of 46).

Temperatures rebound to near normal on Wed and above normal on Thu, with highs well into the 70s. There is an outside chance of the temp reaching 80 in urban NE NJ per NBM and 00Z ECMWF ensemble MOS 90th percentiles.

A dry cold front will move through Thu night, with high pressure returning and temps near or only slightly above average from Fri into the weekend. Rain may enter the picture early next week depending on the interaction between tropical Gulf moisture and an upper low to its west, and how long upper ridging off the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coasts can hold it at bay. Deterministic GFS/ECMWF bring rain in Sunday afternoon and late Sunday night respectively while their AI counterparts hold off longer.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Rest of Tuesday: VFR. NW winds diminishing late.

Wednesday: VFR with SW flow.

Thursday: VFR with W flow becoming NW.

Friday: VFR with NW flow.

Saturday: VFR light NW/VRB winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA remains in effect for all waters attm, with NW flow gusting 25-30 kt and ocean seas as high as 5-6 ft our 20 nm. Winds start to diminish after midnight tonight, first on the harbor/W Sound/S shore bays by midnight, then on the ocean and ern Sound Tue morning.

SCA cond may also be possible late day Wed into Wed night as SW flow increases to 15-20 kt. A few gusts between 20-25 kt are possible, while seas peak between 4-5 ft.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-340-353- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ332-350. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ335-338- 345.