textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with the latest forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably mild / warm air will be in place through Wednesday and most of Wednesday night. Areas of low clouds/fog develop again during the evening and nighttime hours to the east for coastal sections for tonight and potentially for a portion of Wednesday evening.

2) A strong frontal system impacts the area Wednesday night into Thursday with the next chance for rain, likely changing to and ending as some wet snow later Thursday, followed by noticeably cooler and more seasonable air at the end the week.

3) An Alberta Clipper will bring a small chance for light mixed precipitation Friday into Friday night with breezy winds lasting into Saturday.

4) A potent Colorado Low will bring chances for precipitation Sunday through Monday night also with strong winds. Most of the event will be plain rain, but some snow may mix in at the onset and upon the system's exit.

KEY MESSAGE 3

A Colorado Low is expected to deepen out ahead of an amplified upper- level trough that becomes negatively tilted across the Great Plains late this weekend. This low will impact the area Sunday into Monday night as it moves into the Great Lakes region and into Quebec.

This system is more potent than Friday's system and are expecting more QPF overall with this system. A warm front on Sunday will advect in moisture from the Atlantic, leading to increasing coverage of showers into Sunday night. The low's cold front will pass on Monday, bringing with it the risk for moderate to locally heavy downpours. Its also possible there could be some marginal elevated instability with and ahead of the front. This is within the realm of possibility given its mid-March, but its too far out at this time to say with any certainty on if we're expecting thunderstorms yet.

Given the strength of the low, the amplified upper trough, and a strong developing LLJ ahead of the approaching low, a strong period of winds is possible with this system, likely peaking Sunday night into Monday ahead of the approaching cold front.

Highs Sunday into Monday will be between 50 and 60 degrees, with the warmer day lying on Monday just before the cold front.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night: Showers likely especially NW of the NYC metros, with MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. S winds 10-15G20kt, becoming SW late. LLWS expected.

Thursday: Showers likely, possibly mixing with snow before ending late in the day. MVFR or lower conditions possible. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NW 15-20G25kt during the afternoon.

Thursday night: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt early in the evening.

Friday: Mainly VFR. S winds 15G25kt in the afternoon.

Friday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of rain or snow showers with MVFR or lower cond. Winds becoming SW-W 10-15G20-25kt. LLWS possible late at KGON/KISP.

Saturday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with a chance of rain and snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Dense fog for the ocean waters, the bays, is possible again tonight.

Otherwise,sub advisory conditions will prevail on the waters through the first half of Wednesday. A southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon as small craft conditions are expected to return to the ocean waters during the late afternoon, and for the remainder of the waters either late Wednesday night. Small craft conditions should persist across the waters on Thursday morning as the winds will be gusty out of the NW. Sub advisory conditions should return during Thursday afternoon on the non-ocean waters. Waves on the ocean will remain above 5 ft through the day Thursday, and will subside from west to east Thursday night.

Small craft conditions are expected to return to the waters by Friday afternoon on a S flow ahead of the next frontal system as small craft conditions could linger into Saturday morning. Sub advisory conditions are then expected until late in the day Sunday as our next frontal system approaches.

CLIMATE

Below are record high temperatures for Tuesday March 10th.

EWR: 81/2016 BDR: 70/2006 NYC: 79/2016 LGA: 78/2016 JFK: 71/2006 ISP: 73/2016

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.