textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snowfall amounts have decreased slightly along the coast with an increased chance for sleet to mix in Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) A major winter storm impacts the region Sunday through Monday, with widespread accumulating snowfall and significant travel disruptions expected.

2.) An Arctic air mass settles in later today, with subfreezing temperatures persisting through late next week. Wind chill values fall to below zero at times.

3.) Minor coastal flood impacts possible during Sunday night high tide.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Guidance is starting to come into better agreement with potential minor coastal flood impacts during Sunday night high tide. Departures near 2.5 ft are needed to reach minor flood benchmarks, which may be feasible with the growing consensus of secondary low pressure deepening south of Long Island, increasing onshore flow towards the coast. At this time, a blend of NYHOPS, STOFS, and ETSS give the greatest potential of minor flooding across the back bays of Long Island, lower NY Harbor, western Great South Bay, and western Long Island Sound. This will be refined in the coming days, but the main message here is that any coastal flooding impacts will be minor.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Saturday-Saturday Night: NW wind gusts 15-25 kt, mainly in the morning. VFR through late Saturday night, then MVFR or lower in developing snow.

Sunday-Sunday Night: IFR or lower in Snow. Wintry mix of sleet and snow possible Sunday evening near the coast. NE wind gusts 20-30 kt.

Monday: MVFR or lower with light snow possible. N wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect for the ocean and sound tonight into Saturday morning. A combination of elevated seas, 20-30 kt winds and air temps in the teens will result in moderate freezing spray (accumulation of 0.3 inches to 0.8 inches per hour). Other bay areas and the New York Harbor will likely not see waves high enough to result in moderate vessel icing, but some light icing can not be ruled out.

Otherwise, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect on the ocean waters through tonight. After a brief lull in the morning, winds and seas increase in the afternoon behind a fropa, and occasional gale force gusts are possible into the evening. On all other waters, SCA remains in effect from 15Z this morning through tonight for 25-30 kt wind gusts. Conditions lower below advisory criteria by Saturday morning.

As a coastal low passes nearby early next week, NE gales may be possible beginning Sunday afternoon on the ocean, and on all waters Sunday night. Gale conditions may then continue at times through Tuesday. Following that, SCA conditions likely continue on all waters into Tuesday night.

CLIMATE

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 24: KEWR: 15/1936 KBDR: 20/2014 KNYC: 6/1882 KLGA: 18/1987 KJFK: 19/1987 KISP: 19/2014

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for CTZ005>012. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for CTZ005>012. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.