textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Near zero wind chills into this morning.

2.) Temperatures moderate briefly Wednesday PM into Thursday.

3.) Prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures from Friday into early next week.

4.) High uncertainty with late weekend storm.

KEY MESSAGE 4

There continues to be a lot of uncertainty with the track of low pressure developing along the east coast Sunday and passing to the south and east Sunday night into Monday. Recent trends in the both the dynamical and AI models are clearly trending toward a more southward suppression of the storm track. The GFS in particular is the most suppressed, keeping the area dry. Even the Canadian which is still fairly wet, has shown a trend in the highest QPF axis to shift south. The latest long term NBM (13Z) has come up with chances of snow, but based on trends in the 12Z guidance wanted to keep chance PoPs no higher than 50 percent. NBM probabilities for snow amounts of 6 inches or more Sunday into Monday rage from 40 percent inland, to around 60 percent across Long Island and southern portions of the NYC metro. The main reason for the differences in the guidance are likely due to the amount of interaction between the southern and northern branches of the polar jet. The 12Z guidance is showing less phasing with the GFS leaving much of the energy behind across northern Mexico.

Bottom line, we are not out of the woods yet on an accumulating snowfall event for the region on Sunday, but the next 24-48h will be critical to see if models find some continuity and lock on better to a solution.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday PM: Mainly VFR. SW-S winds G20-25kt. MVFR or lower possible in any snow or rain/snow showers, mainly for KBDR and KGON. LLWS possible from 03Z through around 12Z Thursday.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR/light snow and or rain early in the morning east of the city terminals. W-SW gusts around 20kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR. W winds becoming NW G25-30kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR. NW G20-25kt in the morning.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow and N-NE G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small craft conditions wane mainly from west to east through this evening and into a portion of the overnight further east out on the ocean. Otherwise, sub small craft conditions should prevail into the first half of Wednesday. Later Wednesday into Wednesday night small craft conditions return for at least the ocean and possibly some of the non-ocean waters. During Thursday small craft conditions may spread across the remainder of the waters. Marginal small craft conditions will then likely remain for the ocean through Thursday night.

An Arctic cold frontal passage Friday afternoon should then bring SCA conditions to all waters Friday afternoon/night, with W-NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt on the ocean, and seas 5-7 ft.

SCA conditions should continue on the ocean Sat into Sun, with NW-N flow gusting to 25-30 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt may also be possible on the non ocean waters as well Sat night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ332- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.