textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Updated for the 06Z TAF Amendments.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the week.

2) A frontal system will bring showers on Wednesday mainly in the afternoon and at night, possibly lingering into Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The chances for rain increase across western portions of the area very late tonight into Wednesday morning as a fairly strong cold front approaches from the west. Latest NWP and AI guidance is putting out about a half inch of rain on average across the region. With the low level flow becoming more southerly right ahead of the cold front, the lower portion of the atmosphere should stabilize thus limiting the convective potential. There may be enough instability above the boundary layer that may result in a rumble or two of thunder, but overall not expecting any surface based or significant convection.

The area is expected to receive a beneficial rainfall. QPF totals have decreased some over time as NWP guidance appears to be progressing the frontal boundary a bit faster now to the east Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thus, the bulk of the rain takes place Wednesday afternoon and evening. There remains a chance of rain / showers into the day Thursday, but PoP has gradually lowered over time, especially farther west. A second wave of low pressure is expected to develop to the south, but NWP and AI consensus has trended farther to the south and east with this feature. Thus any rain on Thursday should be lighter in nature and likely farther east with clouds expected to linger into Thursday evening. Skies are now expected to clear later Thursday night into Friday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: Chance of showers and MVFR or lower.

Friday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20 kt, diminishing at night.

Saturday: Chance of showers and MVFR.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA cond, with a few gusts up to 35 kt this evening on the Long Island south shore bays and on the ocean from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, will more or less continue through the day Wednesday. There may be a brief lull in advisory level conditions across the non-ocean waters late tonight into early Wed. Otherwise expect advisory level conditions until at least Wednesday night with some of the eastern non-ocean waters having occasional gusts of 30-35 kt. Sub advisory conditions are expected to return from west to east later Wed night into Thu.

Marginal SCA cond are possible Sat afternoon on a southerly flow regime.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335- 338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.