textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather expected mid to late week, with the highest probability of showers from late Wednesday afternoon into daytime Thursday.

2) Dry and warm conditions expected for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure and its associated mid level shortwave will dive SE into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night. This system will carve out a deeper mid-upper level trough over the eastern States mid to late week. The primary low should head into upstate NY and weaken Wed night, then a secondary should form along the Mid Atlantic coast and pass just SE of Long Island daytime Thu. Overrunning showers should impact the area late day Wed into Wed night, with warm conveyor belt showers and a few tstms ahead of the developing secondary low Wed night into Thu morning. QPF during this time frame expected to run from 2/3 to 1 inch, with the higher amts across S CT and Long Island. Can't rule out some nuisance impacts from moderate to locally heavy rain Wed night, and perhaps into Thu morning out east. After the secondary low passes, instability showers via cool conveyor belt moisture and mid level cold pool aloft should continue into Fri, and can't entirely rule out an isolated afternoon tstm.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The low should pull away from the area in time to allow for warm and dry conditions this weekend. High temps per NBM and ECMWF MOS should range from 75-80 in most places on Sat, and the upper 70s/lower 80s on Sunday. Higher NBM percentile forecasts signal potential for temps to be a few degrees warmer than that. Temps of course will be cooler along the SE CT coast and the south shore of Long Island.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out tonight.

Wednesday: Showers developing through the day. MVFR or lower conditions. S winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday-Friday: Showers possible with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA remains for the central and eastern ocean waters out to 20 nm, with Fire Island to Moriches Inlet until noon, and through the afternoon from Moriches Inlet out to Montauk Point as SE swells of 5-6 ft continue and are mostly running higher than NWPS forecast.

As S flow increases ahead of a frontal sys on Wed, SCA cond are likely on the ocean and the Long Island south shore bays, with gusts to 25-30 kt in the afternoon/evening and ocean seas building to 5-6 ft. Ocean seas up to 5 ft should then linger into at least Thu morning, possibly into the afternoon E of Moriches Inlet.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ353.