textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 00Z Aviation.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities and air quality through tonight. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect until midnight.

2) Widespread rainfall expected on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Thunderstorm development this afternoon has remained to the south. Cu development inland has dissipated inland, and development along the sea breeze front across Long Island has moved offshore. Will remove mention of precip into this evening.

Chances for widespread rain arrive Saturday into Saturday night, when a shortwave trough digs down into the Great Lakes and swings across eastern Canada/NE CONUS. Increasing SW flow ahead of the incoming trough will allow a deep moist airmass to lift northward into our region on Saturday, with PWATs progged to potentially exceed 2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms will become fairly widespread, particularly later Saturday into Saturday evening. Flow should be quick enough to keep individual cells moving enough to preclude significant flooding concerns, but heavy rainfall rates will be possible given warm cloud depths 13+ kft. This could lead to localized flooding, especially in poor drainage areas. We remain under a Marginal Risk in both the Day 3 Excessive Rainfall and Convective Outlooks.

Sunday is looking decidedly drier as models indicate a cold front will sweep across the region from the northwest during the morning hours. Both weekend days will have highs in the mid to upper 80s, but Sunday will be much more comfortable that Saturday, with dewpoints a good 5-10 degrees lower than Saturday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday night: MVFR or lower possible with smoke returning.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible in showers/tstms and smoke.

Sunday and Monday: Mainly VFR unless there are smoke impacts.

Tuesday: A frontal sys may bring MVFR or lower cond and a chance of tstms.

MARINE

SCA cond appear likely on the ocean waters and ern Sound late day Sat, with southerly gusts up to 25 kt developing. These conditions should continue into Sat night on the ocean, while seas also build to 5 ft. The hazardous seas could linger E of Fire Island Inlet into Sunday before lowering.

SCA cond also possible on the ocean Tue afternoon into Wed ahead of another frontal system.

Rip Currents:

The overall rip current risk should be low for Friday as winds will be mostly light and ocean seas no higher than 2 ft with no appreciable swell. The risk could become moderate late in the afternoon especially at the NYC and Nassau beaches as S winds increase to 10-15 mph.

A moderate rip current risk is forecast for Saturday as S winds and seas gradually increase. That risk could increase to high after 3-4 PM as sustained S winds increase to around 20 mph and ocean seas build to 3-4 ft in opposition to an outgoing tide, with low tide around 500-530 PM.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Friday night for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...None.