textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Some rain, mainly light, is expected thru Saturday.

2) A slow-moving frontal system will lead to increasing rain chances mid-to-late week with decreasing temperatures. Thunderstorms are also a concern late Tuesday into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A large upper-level trough will gradually amplify over the Great Plains and Great Lakes Tuesday into Thursday, eventually traversing the region on Friday. Just east of this trough, a stalled front will remain situated to our north and west. Several waves of surface low pressure may pass along it, which will lead to several shots at rainfall mid to late week.

Tuesday will remain mostly under a ridge that gradually exits east. Higher heights will lead to warm temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to low 80s across the area. Wednesday will also remain mildly warm with highs in the 60s and low 70s.

Given warmer air, higher humidity, and a nearby frontal system, rain chances increase late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a chance for thunderstorms, as well.

On Thursday, the now amplified longwave trough nears the area which finally sends the main frontal system through the area. This leads to more widespread rainfall, but also cooler and milder temperatures Thursday going into Friday. The 13Z NBM is currently projecting mean 48-hr (Wed AM - Fri AM) rainfall around 1.00" with 90th percentiles around 1.50" to 2.00".

Winds become quite gusty as well with tightening pressure gradient between high pressure offshore and approaching frontal system Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there will likely be some limitations with the low level warm air advection and less favorable mixing environment.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Tonight: KGON possible MVFR with mainly light rain. Otherwise VFR.

Sunday: VFR. NW flow 10-15 kt. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Peak gusts to 30 kt possible.

Monday: VFR. SW flow 10-15 kt. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. S-SW flow 10-15 kt. Possible rain showers mainly north and west of NYC terminals at night. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers, possible thunderstorms. S-SW flow 10-15 kt. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain blw SCA lvls thru Sat. Low pres over the Atlc will bring winds close to SCA lvls on Sun, with seas on the ocean likely reaching 5 ft criteria. Increasing S flow on Mon may produce SCA cond on all waters Mon.

Tuesday through Wednesday, SCA conditions are possible due to an approaching frontal system with some possibility of low-end gales, as well.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.