textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers with strong wind gusts possible early this evening.

2) A period of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms likely Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Developing low pressure center approaches the forecast area before tracking near/over us late Sunday night into Monday morning. Potential flooding and strong/severe wind gust impacts will depend on where the storm center tracks, and at this time, guidance leans toward a track over or just south of us. The primary threat therefore appears to be for a period of moderate to heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon/night with approaching shortwave lift and warm front plus a developing 30-40kt llj lifting high moisture (2-2.5" PWAT). The period when flooding would be most likely is mid- afternoon Sunday until around midnight. East of NYC, flooding threat is overall lower due to current FFG values, but heavy rain with a threat of at least minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding would be possible mainly during Sunday night.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm threat still exists Sunday afternoon and evening due to the uncertainty of the exact track of the low center in our vicinity. A low track over or to the north of the region would promote high shear/helicity, albeit with weak instability. Still fairly low predictability on thunderstorm coverage and severity at this time. Did not deviate from NBM regarding thunder chances, but it's beginning to look like the chance of severe weather is low and more likely to be confined to the southern half of the forecast area if it were to occur.

Additional iso-sct shower and thunderstorm activity is possible on Monday with a trailing slow cold front, but severe wx does not look likely.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR in the morning. Increasing potential for MVFR or lower thereafter with showers developing and moving in. Widespread showers, potentially heavy at times at night with potential IFR. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts near 15-20 kt afternoon into night.

Monday: MVFR or lower early with showers. Otherwise, improving conditions throughout the day with eventual return to mainly VFR.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance for showers and MVFR at night. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated through Saturday night in a weak pressure regime.

SCA conditions then appear to become likely Sunday afternoon into Sunday night for the ocean waters, and potentially all waters with strengthening southerly flow ahead of approaching frontal system. Some gusts could approach gale force depending on the eventual track of low pressure approaching and passing through, but not high enough of a chance for a mention in the HWO.

Rip Currents: A couple of 1 ft S/SE onshore swells, with a weak seabreeze will maintain mainly a low rip risk for the rest of today. Similar swells conditions with 1-2 ft longshore wind waves will once again result in a low rip risk on Saturday. A recent new moon will continue the wide tidal range, and could increase the rip risk to moderate particularly around the times of low tide today and Saturday.

Rip current risk likely builds to high late on Sunday with strengthening southerly winds and southerly winds waves building to 4-5 ft.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.