textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure will spin over the Canadian Maritimes as weak high pressure remains to the west tonight, then builds in on Friday. Low pressure will develop south of the area Saturday night and head to the northeast on Sunday. Strong high pressure will then build in for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Some gusts to 40 mph are still occurring across the forks of Long Island and possibly coastal SE CT, otherwise the trend with winds has been down, so the wind advisory was cancelled.

Mid-level energy swinging into the area into tonight will reinforce the strong CAA in the area. This should continue to allow for enhanced mixing of the BL and keep gusty sfc winds tonight. The pressure gradient weakens some late tonight into early Friday morning, so gusts may begin to diminish then.

Most earlier lake effect snow bands over northern NJ had dissipated just before reaching the CWA. A couple over Morris COunty NJ attm show much better reflectivity and should make it into parts of NE NJ and NYC over the next couple of hours, leaving a quick dusting of snow and reduced visibility in spots.

Cold conditions expected, with low temperatures in the teens for northern areas and lower 20s along the coast. Wind chills will make it feel like the single digits north and in the teens for the NYC metro area and right along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Cold continues into Friday night, followed by temperature moderation into Saturday.

* Light snow becoming more likely late Saturday night as cold air arrives.

A ridge of high pressure shifts into the area on Friday with gusty winds in the morning diminishing into the afternoon. Dry conditions with mostly clear skies are expected, though temperatures will be cold with highs in the 30s across the area. Cold temperatures persist Friday night with winds relaxing quite a bit. Low temperatures are expected to largely be in the 20s, though some northern locations may fall into the teens. Any location that is able to go calm may drop a few more degrees than forecast due to radiational cooling under mostly clear skies.

Winds shift WSW on Saturday as a low pressure system passes to the north. This will allow a moderating of the temperatures on Saturday with highs in the low 40s expected along the coast. While much of the day is expected to be dry, cloud cover will be increasing through the day.

An upper trough deepens Saturday night over the Great Lakes. This will force lift over much of the area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning as a surface low pressure develops south of the area. This lift should be realized in the form of widespread light snowfall expected to begin to overspread the area after midnight Saturday night. Depending on the temperatures along the immediate south shore of Long Island, an initial rain/snow mix may develop but expected to become all snow fairly quickly.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Points:

* Weak low pressure in association with an Arctic boundary and upper level disturbance brings a period of snow for the southeastern portions of the forecast area Sunday morning.

* A shot of unseasonably cold air will follow for Sunday through Monday night, with temps up to 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Temperatures should start to moderate late Tuesday into Tuesday night but will remain below normal.

Low pressure passes well north of the area Sunday morning, weakening as it does so. At the same time, a fast moving vorticity max rounds the base of the upper level trough over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and moves toward the forecast area. Additionally, and arctic front moves through on Sunday. Cyclogenesis is also likely along the front on Sunday well SE of New England after it passes through, likely too late to have significant snow impacts. However, an advisory level snowfall (2"-4") across NE NJ, NYC, and Long Island snowfall is looking more likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. The best chance of this looks to be for the more southeastern portions of the area as they will be closer to the low. There remain differences among global NWP (for example, the NAM gives portions of Long Island Winter Storm Warning criteria of around 6", while the GFS gives Long Island <1") so, NBM was followed closely.

After the passage of the cold front, colder and drier conditions move in through Tuesday. It will also become blustery Sunday night into Monday due to the tight pressure gradient between the intensifying low as it heads northeast, away from the area, and high pressure building from the west. The high should build over the area on Tuesday and remain in control through the middle of next week. The next chance for any precipitation looks to be Thursday with the approaches from the southwest.

Temps will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Monday, with lows in the teens and lower 20s (these could be lower, especially across outlying areas, depending on amount of snowpack, cloud cover and winds), and highs from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Wind chills late Sunday night/early Monday morning could drop to the either side of zero across a large portion of the region. Only slight moderation in high temps (lower to middle 30s) expected for Tuesday, with less wind chill impact as winds lighten.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. WSW winds G15kt.

Saturday night: Snow moving in after midnight late Saturday night with MVFR to IFR cond possible.

Sunday: MVFR to IFR, possibly LIFR at times, in snow, mainly in the morning. Snow tapers off from west to east afternoon into early evening. Improving conditions afternoon into evening with VFR returning. NW winds G15-20kt. Some peak gusts up to 25 kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G20-25kt. Gusts lower at night with some gusts to 20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. W winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Replaced gale warning with SCA for NY Harbor, the western Sound, and the south shore bays, where gusts have lowered to 25-30 kt. Gale warnings continue on the ocean waters and the ern Sound/Bays, with gusts 35-40 kt into late tonight. Seas 4-7 ft on the ocean W of Fire Island Inlet subside to 3-5 ft by daybreak. Seas 7-10 ft east of there should subside to 5-8 ft daybreak. Seas up to 6 ft on the central/ern Sound should also subside to below 5 ft.

Gusts in WNW flow should drop below 25 kt by mid morning Fri on all but the ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet and continue there into early afternoon, with lingering 5-ft seas for the rest of the afternoon.

Conditions continue to settle down for Friday night into Saturday morning. Ocean seas increase some Saturday night, but should remain just below small craft criteria.

Gale force wind gusts are possible Sunday as low pressure develops and intensifies along SE of Long Island. Seas should build to 5-9 ft on the ocean, and around 5 ft on the central/eastern sound.

Winds diminish, but remain at or above 25 kt for much of Monday, falling below SCA criteria Monday night. Waves on the ocean waters will remain above 5 ft through Monday, with a bit of a lull early Monday night before building again late Monday night. Waves on the sound fall below 5 ft Monday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

There are no hydrologic impacts expected through the entire forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340-350-353- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Friday for ANZ335-338-345.