textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Recent model trends have shown the increasing potential for a period of sleet Sunday afternoon and evening mainly for coastal areas. As such, have decreased snowfall totals slightly to reflect this trend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A major winter storm will impact the region early Sunday through at least early Monday. A widespread 9 to 15 inches of snowfall and significant travel disruptions expected.

2) Arctic air will remain over the region through next week. Cold Weather Advisories could eventually be needed.

3) Minor coastal impacts likely around the times of high tide Sunday night/early Mon AM.

KEY MESSAGE 3

As coastal low pressure passes nearby Sunday Night into Monday, ENE to NE winds should be sufficient to elevate water levels enough to just above the minor coastal flood benchmarks during times of high tide late Sunday night into early Monday morning across the south shore of Nassau County, eastern bays of LI (particularly N/NE facing shores), and along western Long Island sound.

3 to 5 ft breaking wave actions along N/NE facing coasts along W LI Sound and Gardiner's Bay will locally exacerbate shoreline erosion and flooding.

A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these areas.

Minor beach flooding issues anticipated along the oceanfront from 4- 6ft breaking waves with an east to west sweep. Low probability of dune erosion.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday night: IFR to LIFR conditions remain with wintry mix (mostly snow and sleet) lessening in intensity. At times, precip type could just be plain sleet. Mainly snow for KSWF. Freezing rain develops for coastal terminals. NW wind gusts 20-30 kt.

Monday: MVFR to IFR with lingering light snow. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt, subsiding at night.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A brief lull in SCA conditions expected late this afternoon into tonight. Winds will increase on the waters later Sunday into Sunday night. Have upgraded to gale warnings for the ocean, Great South Bay and Eastern Long Island Sound. A gale watch remains in effect on all the remaining waters Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. SCA conditions are then likely Monday into Tuesday, with potential of gales on the ocean Monday night.

SCA conditions are then likely Monday into Tuesday, with potential of gales on the ocean Monday night into Tuesday. Sub-advisory conditions otherwise for Wednesday through most of Thursday.

CLIMATE

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 24: KEWR: 15/1936 KBDR: 20/2014 KNYC: 6/1882 KLGA: 18/1987 KJFK: 19/1987 KISP: 19/2014

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for CTZ005>012. NY...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ331-335-338-340. Gale Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ332- 345-350-353-355.