textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Much colder air arriving on gusty west winds through tonight.

2.) Light snow accumulation possible late Friday night into Saturday before mixing with or changing to rain. Light accumulations up to 1 inch possible, mainly north and west of NYC.

3.) Chance for snow some time Sunday into Sunday night. The track, timing, and intensity are still highly uncertain at this time.

4.) Cold next week. Lows likely in the single digits and teens Monday night and Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 4

The modeling has been consistently cold for next week - not record breaking - but cold nonetheless. No changes to the NBM, although it is noteworthy that lows Tue ngt and Wed ngt are actually colder in the NBM than the MEX, which is unusual. The MEX might be keying in on the winds as a limiting factor. If there is snow on the ground, would expect the lower NBM numbers to be verify.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR or lower at times with rain and/or snow.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in snow.

Monday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

On the backside of deepening low pressure to the north, west winds will produce gales on the ocean waters tonight into Friday morning with SCA conditions elsewhere. The strongest winds will arrive during the early morning hours Friday and then begin to subside by late morning as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Seas will get up to 7 to 10 ft on the ocean waters, and 3 to 6 ft across Long Island Sound. While winds fall below SCA criteria in the afternoon into early evening hours Friday, seas are forecast to linger above 5 ft on the ocean waters through Saturday night.

Outside of some lingering 5 ft seas on the ocean, winds and waves blw sca lvls on Sun. Winds pick up on Mon with low pres developing over the Atlc. Gales possible by Mon aftn and Mon ngt. Continued windy on Tue with sca cond possible all waters.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340- 345. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.