textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Gale Watch has been issued for Sunday night for all the forecast waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A frontal system impacts the region Saturday into Sunday night with rain possibly becoming moderate to locally heavy Saturday afternoon into the evening. Flooding concerns remain minimal.

2) Strong midweek cold frontal passage with the potential for coastal low development Thursday into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

There is good agreement amongst the globals of a strong cold frontal passage in the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. In addition, the upper air pattern becomes highly amplified with positive height anomalies out west and an amplifying longwave trough east of the Mid Mississippi River Valley. What may be a one of the lacking ingredients is blocking over the western Atlantic with a slightly positive NAO. During this time, the PNA becomes positive and the AO trends negative. So there are some favorable signals there for a potential east coast cyclogenesis with cold air availability late in the week. However, it is too early to be specific with details and the 12Z GFS/GEFS have trended more progressive and farther offshore with low development. Using the NBM, have low chances for precipitation starting Wednesday with rain showers ahead of the cold front, then transitioning to snow with anafrontal precipitation as we head into Thursday.

Near normal temperatures on Monday warm into Wednesday ahead of the approaching cold front. Highs get into the 40s for Tuesday and Wednesday before falling into the 30s for the end of the week. Lows warm into the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday and then into the teens and 20s by Friday. NBM box and whisker plots not showing a whole low spread until we get into the Thursday and Friday timeframe where the greatest uncertainty resides.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday Afternoon-Night: Rain developing with IFR or lower likely by evening, continuing through the night.

Sunday: Chance of rain and MVFR/IFR in the morning. W winds G25-30 kt in the afternoon.

Monday: VFR. WNW wind G20-25 kt in the morning.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A SCA remains in effect for this evening for the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet. A southerly flow increases into this evening with ocean seas building. Gusts will be marginally at SCA levels as little mixing is expected over the cooler ocean surface. However, seas will build to SCA levels by early this evening, then subside by daybreak Saturday as winds diminish and become westerly with a cold front passage.

With the passage of another frontal system Saturday into Sunday SCA conditions develop once again on the ocean waters late Saturday night as a cold front passes through the waters. Conditions continue into Sunday with the non ocean waters also increasing to SCA levels as a secondary cold front passes through the waters. Gusty westerly winds rather quickly increase late day Sunday into Sunday night behind the secondary cold front, and reach gale force across all the waters. With consistency and more confidence in reaching gale force gusts Sunday night have issued a Gale Watch for all the waters.

Departing low pressure lifts up into the Canadian Maritimes on Monday, while high pressure builds to the south. Winds and seas will subside on Monday but remain at SCA levels. Thereafter, marginal SCA conditions may linger into Tuesday, especially east of Moriches Inlet with westerly flow producing seas around 5 ft. Winds veer to the SW ahead of an approaching cold front late Tuesday with SCA conditions becoming likely on the ocean waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ353.