textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slightly increased probability for freezing rain across portions of the interior tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain through early Friday morning could lead to localized nuisance flooding, especially in areas of poor drainage. Low probability of freezing rain across interior locations tonight.

2) Showers possible Saturday night with above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A warming trend will begin this weekend, especially Sunday, and continue through the middle of next week. The frontal system draped to our south will gradually lift to our north Saturday into Saturday night. The low level colder air will remain in place to start Saturday. Guidance may be warming temperatures a bit too quickly given there is not a strong push of SW flow until late in the day and evening. Highs for Saturday may not occur until along and just ahead of the cold front passage. Temperatures should start rising into the 40s and then gradually push into the 50s from the NYC metro north and west in the evening at night. Temperatures may stay in the 40s due to the onshore flow influence.

Showers may accompany the cold front passage Saturday night. The NBM continues to indicate likely PoPs for this time frame, but this may be overdone given the most organized lift is progged to pass to well to our NW. Showers may end up scattered overall with generally light rainfall amounts.

The cold front then pushes south on Sunday and washes out as the Western Atlantic high pressure remains in place through early next week. A more persistent SW flow regime sets up early next week with a high pressure ridge intensifying to the southeast. This SW flow will allow for warmer air to move into the area resulting in a warming trend through at least the middle of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will largely be the 50s with potential of lower 60s from NYC on north and west. If the current forecast high of 61 at Central Park on Sunday verifies, it would be the first temperature 60 degrees or higher since November 9, 2025. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures west of the NYC metro may climb into the upper 60s and low 70s. Coastal areas and Long Island likely remain in the 50s with the cold water moderating the airmass. If there is more of a westerly component to the wind direction, warmer air could push further east until the occurrence of afternoon sea breezes.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday Night: LIFR to IFR. Rain continues. ENE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday: Mainly MVFR to IFR. Rain tapers off early in the day but there is another chance of rain at night. NE wind gusts early 15-20 kt.

Saturday: MVFR possible at times, especially at night with rain showers. Isolated thunderstorm possible at night. Potential for southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers. VFR eventually returns by late morning into the afternoon.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Conditions will remain below SCA levels into this afternoon. Increasing E flow tonight will lead to winds reaching near 25 kt on the ocean, LI Bays, and LI Sound E of the CT River. These winds should subside Friday morning, but ocean seas will remain elevated into Friday afternoon. An SCA has been issued on the ocean tonight into Friday and on the LI Bays/E LI Sound, tonight through 10am Friday. Seas may remain elevated Friday night east of Moriches Inlet and the SCA may need to be extended in subsequent updates.

SCA conditions will become likely on the ocean Saturday afternoon and night ahead of a cold frontal passage with wind gusts near 25kt and seas 5-7 feet. Seas may be slow to subside on Sunday, but sub- SCA conditions on all waters are expected by Sunday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.