textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A period of wet snow is likely into early this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Becoming colder with a period of wet snow into early this evening.

2) Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes Friday will track to the north of the area Friday night, sending a warm front through in the evening and a cold front late at night.

3) A strong frontal system will impact the area with thunderstorms, rain, and wind, from Sunday night through Monday night. There could be some timing differences.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The forecast remains consistent for the potential of deep low pressure to affect the area beginning Sunday night and continuing into Monday night. A full latitude upper trough develops over the Plains states Sunday night and tracks slowly eastward into the Great Lakes region and east coast Monday night, before slowly weakening Tuesday into Wednesday. A deepening surface low moves out of the northern Rockies and into the central Plains Saturday night, then deepens and tracks more northerly through Monday night as the upper trough becomes slightly negative. A strong southerly flow develops Monday as the gradient winds increase in response to the deepening low. The area will be warm sectored, and an approaching cold front Monday could trigger strong convection as a 60-70 kt low level jet moves through the area. Stronger thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be possible as precipitable waters values increase to 1.50 inches, and storms tracks northerly along the front while moving slowly eastward. There will be a chance of urban, low lying, and small stream flooding. NBM 24h probabilities for an inch or more of rainfall remain around 40-60 percent. And the NBM probabilities for 24h max wind gusts greater than 45 mph have slightly increased to 50-65 percent.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday Night : VFR. S winds 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt afternoon into night.

Saturday: VFR. W wind gusts 25-30 kt during the day.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with rain Sunday night. SE wind gusts near 20-25 kt afternoon into night. LLWS possible.

Monday: MVFR or lower at times with rain. Southerly wind gusts 25-30 kt during the day. More westerly wind gusts 25-30 kt at night. LLWS possible.

Tuesday: VFR. Gusty NW winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA conditions in a post-frontal NW flow will gradually diminish across the waters through tonight. However, this will be short-lived as strong low pressure over the Great Lakes Friday tracks east and passes to the north Friday night, then up into the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. Pre-frontal southerly winds will reach SCA criteria Friday afternoon with the potential for marginal gale force gusts on the ocean starting Friday evening. A cold frontal passage then follows before daybreak with SCA conditions likely in a west flow on Saturday. Marginal gale force gusts are once again possible on the ocean. Weak high pressure then builds in Saturday night with diminishing winds and seas.

An approaching deep low pressure system, moving through the Great Lakes region Sunday, will produce SCA conditions on the ocean waters by late day Sunday. As the low deepens and tracks through eastern Canada Monday small craft conditions become likely Sunday evening across all the forecast waters. Late Sunday night and Monday winds and gusts continue to increase, and a period of gale force gusts becoming possible on the ocean waters late Sunday night, with gales likely across all the waters Monday into Monday evening, then slowly diminishing to SCA levels for Monday night as the low tracks well north. Ocean gusts may even briefly approach storm force during Monday afternoon.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.