textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty post-frontal winds after a cold frontal passage and showers over Long Island and southeast Connecticut should end around or soon after daybreak.

2) Unsettled weather expected mid to late week, with the highest probability of showers from late Wednesday afternoon into daytime Thursday.

3) Dry and warm conditions expected for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front has passed through, with winds having shifted N and gusting close to 25 kt in spots. These winds should settle down by daybreak Mon, while showers across Long Island and SE CT also come to an end, perhaps lingering out on the forks of Long Island until about 8 AM. A cooler/drier air mass will work its way in, with highs only on the lower/mid 60s which is a few degrees below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure and its associated mid level shortwave will dive SE into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night. This system will carve out a deeper mid-upper level trough over the eastern States mid to late week. The primary low should head into upstate NY and weaken Wed night, then a secondary should form along the Mid Atlantic coast and pass just SE of Long Island daytime Thu. Overrunning showers should impact the area late day Wed into Wed night, with warm conveyor belt showers and a few tstms ahead of the developing secondary low Wed night into Thu morning. QPF during this time frame expected to run from 2/3 to 1 inch, with the higher amts across S CT and Long Island. Can't rule out some nuisance impacts from moderate to locally heavy rain Wed night, and perhaps into Thu morning out east. After the secondary low passes, instability showers via cool conveyor belt moisture and mid level cold pool aloft should continue into Fri, and can't entirely rule out an isolated afternoon tstm.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The low should pull away from the area in time to allow for warm and dry conditions this weekend. High temps per NBM and ECMWF MOS should range from 75-80 in most places on Sat, and the upper 70s/lower 80s on Sunday. Higher NBM percentile forecasts signal potential for temps to be a few degrees warmer than that. Temps of course will be cooler along the SE CT coast and the south shore of Long Island.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out Monday night.

Wednesday: Showers developing through the day. MVFR or lower conditions. S winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday-Friday: Showers possible with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA extended for all ocean waters out 20 nm until 6 AM from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, til noon from there E to Moriches Inlet, and through the afternoon out to Montauk Point as SE swells of 5-6 ft continue and are mostly running higher than NWPS forecast. A few northerly gusts to 25 kt are also likely on the ocean into early this morning.

As S flow increases ahead of a frontal sys on Wed, SCA cond are likely on the ocean and the Long Island south shore bays, with gusts to 25-30 kt in the afternoon/evening and ocean seas building to 5-6 ft. Ocean seas up to 5 ft should then linger into at least Thu morning, possibly into the afternoon E of Moriches Inlet.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ355.