textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Blizzard warnings have been issued for Long Island, New York City, and the Connecticut coast.

Winter storm warnings have been issued for interior southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northeast New Jersey.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and strong winds from Sunday into Monday. Blizzard conditions are expected along the coast with near-blizzard conditions across interior southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northeast New Jersey Sunday night into the first half of Monday.

2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Monday.

3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the 40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt.

KEY MESSAGE 3

There are two features, a weak wave of low pressure midweek and a passing cold front towards late week that will give these next potential precipitation events. With the absence of offshore cyclogenesis in the forecast mid to late week, there will not be as much potential for the precipitation to grow with subsequent forecasts. Aloft, the flow in mid levels and is not too amplified and mostly zonal outside of a quick shortwave giving brief amplification early Friday.

High temperatures forecast Tuesday will be getting to low to mid 30s, then upper 30s to near 40 Wednesday, more in the 40s Thursday and then back to upper 30s to near 40 next Friday. This will allow for snowmelt each day and with mostly sub-freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent refreeze of snow melt.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions are becoming increasingly likely in developing heavy snow Sunday. NE winds G20-25 kt Sunday. NE Sunday night with G35-40 kt. Highest winds and gusts are expected at the coastal terminals. Potential for LLWS Sunday night with 50kt at 2kft.

Monday: MVFR or lower in snow. N winds G30-40 kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in snow or rain/snow mix possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Storm watch has been expanded to include eastern LI Sound. Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and the westernmost ocean zones from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet.

Marginal SCA conditions for seas to start today will come to an end later this morning as weak high pressure builds across the water.

A major coastal storm will then take shape along the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday, rapidly deepening some 25 to 30 mb by early Monday morning. The low drop to around 970mb as it reaches the 40N...70W benchmark Monday morning. Gales and storm force gusts are becoming increasing likely with seas building as high as 20 feet on the ocean and 5 to 10 ft on LI Sound (highest eastern sound). Conditions ramp down to SCA on all waters for Mon night.

SCA potential remains Tuesday through Thursday on the ocean. Non- ocean waters will have SCA potential for wind gusts Tuesday and mainly below SCA wind gusts Tuesday night through Thursday.

CLIMATE

With the potential major snowstorm Sunday into Monday, there is the potential for some snowfall records to be broken. Here are the records for Sunday and Monday for the climate sites:

Sun 2/22 Mon 2/23

Central Park, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972 LaGuardia, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972 John F Kennedy, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987 Newark, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987 Islip, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987 Bridgeport, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for CTZ005>008. Blizzard Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for CTZ009>012. Coastal Flood Watch late Sunday night for CTZ009-010. NY...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for NYZ067>070. Blizzard Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Watch late Sunday night for NYZ071-073-078-176- 177. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for NYZ079-081. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for NYZ080-179. NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ331-332-340-350-353-355. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ335-338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ350- 353.