textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No notable changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The unseasonably cold weather continues through the weekend, with cold weather advisories remaining in effect for portions of the area tonight. Another round of cold weather headlines looks likely for later this week.

2) A strong coastal storm develops off the SE coast Saturday. The potential exists for snow and strong winds across at least the eastern portion of the area Sunday, but it is much too early for specific impacts, amounts, and wind speeds.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The latest modeling continues to show a strong low pressure developing along or just off the southeast coast on Saturday. The main question regarding this system is how close will the low track for potential impacts, if any, to our local area. The guidance has continued to show a large amount of spread of solutions amongst the deterministic, ensembles, and AI models. Those that track the low closer to the 40/70 benchmark are able to bring snow to at least the eastern portion of the area. The members that are much further south and east would keep most of the precipitation offshore. The uncertainty appears tied to the timing of southern stream energy interacting with a 500 mb closed low diving south late in the week/early weekend. The interaction is complex and is leading to a wide range of possible solutions from a track near the 40/70 benchmark to well offshore. There are even some members that deepen the low rapidly off the NC coast before taking the low well offshore. Despite some of the offshore solutions, the large size of the modeled system could still bring at least some light snow near the southeast coast along with potential strong wind gusts.

Confidence in the track and timing are still low at this time. One aspect of this system that the models are starting to key in on is that the low could quite deep, with several models deepening the low below 970 mb sometime Saturday or Sunday. This would introduce the potential of strong winds across portions of the area even if the low were to track south and east of the 40/70 benchmark due to the modeled size and intensity of the system.

Right now it is much too early for specific impacts such as potential snowfall amounts and wind speeds across the local area. Will continue to monitor model trends over the next few days with confidence increasing on impacts, if any, across the area. The trend this winter has been for systems to trend NW or closer to the area with time, but it remains to be seen if the same will hold true for this potential system. The probability of at least 2 inches of snow (close to Advisory level) from the latest NBMv5.0 is about 50 percent across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut, and about 30-40 percent elsewhere.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Late tonight: VFR

Thursday and Friday: VFR. WNW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR initially, then MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow, mainly late night Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the terminals east of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night to 20-25 kt, then 30-35kt on Sunday. There is lon confidence at this time on the magnitude of winds and snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A SCA remains in effect for all waters thru tngt, then continues on the ocean Wed. Although lgt freezing spray is expected, moderate is no longer fcst so the advy has been cancelled. Winds and seas then build again late Thu, with a SCA possible by Thu ngt.

SCA conditions are likely to develop on the waters Saturday into Saturday night as low pressure strengthens along the southeast coast. Seas should continue building into Sunday with potential of gales or even storm force winds across the waters, especially the ocean. The magnitude of the winds will be determined by the track/intensity of the storm, which is still of low confidence at this time range.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ072>075-176>179. NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ006- 105>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.