textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to all waters, and extended in time on the ocean.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Minimal tidal flooding impacts possible Thursday night.

2. Much cooler on Thursday.

3. Showers likely on Sunday with any impacts likely limited.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Forecast trends remain for the timing of a strong cold front that is expected to move through the region Sunday into Sunday night with showers likely. With limited surface and elevated CAPE and little instability thunderstorms are not included in the forecast. An isolated thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out as a low level jet will provide some lift along with the cold front, and some guidance is indicating stronger convective elements late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Regardless of thunder, brief heavy downpours are possible with isolated minor urban/poor drainage flooding, along with gusty winds with the stronger showers.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday: IFR. E/NE 10-15kt at the coast. -DZ.

Friday: Becoming VFR. SW G15-20kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance for MVFR or lower Sat night. Chance of showers. SE-S wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers. SW gusts to near 20 kt during day. W-NW wind gusts near 20 kt at night.

Monday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Seas on the ocean are modeled to remain aoa 5 ft thru most of Thu ngt, so the SCA was extended there. On the remaining waters, increasing ENE winds behind a cold front this eve will be close to SCA lvls. An advy has therefore been issued for this. Winds and waves likely blw SCA lvls Fri, then SCA cond again possible Fri ngt and Sat, especially on the ocean.

Saturday night SCA conditions will be developing on the ocean waters as a southerly flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front. By Sunday SCA conditions will be likely across all the forecast waters. Gusts will be near gale force on the ocean waters for several hours during Sunday, however, have low confidence that gusts will be that high as a strong low level inversion will be in place over the cooler waters. Post cold front, with a westerly flow, conditions will be slowly improving west to east Sunday night through Monday with the non ocean waters falling below advisory levels during Sunday evening. Winds and seas will then remain below advisory Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds toward the waters.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 1: KEWR: 82/1978 KBDR: 71/1955 KNYC: 83/1917 KLGA: 80/1978 KJFK: 75/1978 KISP: 67/1999

April 4: KEWR: 82/1950 KBDR: 71/2025 KNYC: 80/1892 KLGA: 76/2010 KJFK: 73/2010 KISP: 75/2010

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 1: KEWR: 62/2016 KBDR: 53/2016 KNYC: 61/2016 KLGA: 56/2016 KJFK: 52/2016 KISP: 54/2016

April 4: KEWR: 61/1981 KBDR: 53/2025 KNYC: 62/1892 KLGA: 57/2025 KJFK: 57/2025 KISP: 54/2025

April 5: KEWR: 55/1981 KBDR: 49/1974 KNYC: 60/1892 KLGA: 53/2010 KJFK: 52/2010 KISP: 50/1981

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.