textproduct: New York

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light rain showers today with below normal temperatures.

2) Potential for an elevated risk of fire spread Thursday.

3) Unsettled weather to start this weekend with below normal temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Guidance has been consistent with a frontal system sliding south of the area on Saturday and bringing rain to at least to NYC north and west. There is still some uncertainty with how far east the precip shield will get, but there will likely be a decent gradient. Regardless, the easterly flow will keep temperatures in the low 50s for most. There is some indication that eastern CT could get into the upper 50s if the bulk of precip and clouds stay farther west.

The large spread for this event lies with the amount of rain that we could see. The latest NBM 24hr QPF 10th percentile for NYC shows 0.00 inches with the 90th percentile showing around 1 inch. This is expected to fall over a 18-24 hour period so flooding is not a concern at this time.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers with MVFR cond in the afternoon and at night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers.

Sunday: MVFR possible mainly in the morning with slight chance of showers. Low confidence.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

A LLJ translates east quickly this morning and will bring a period of 25 kt gusts to the waters from Sandy Hook to Moriches Inlet out 60 NM, the South Shore Bays, and have just added NY Harbor to the SCA as well. The waters from Moriches Inlet to Montauk out 60 NM may also see 25 kt gusts, but there is less confidence and it will likely be more occasional.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters tonight through the weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ338- 345-353-355.

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