textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat and humidity continues through Independence Day.

2) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day through Sunday. Highest chances are over the weekend. Any storm has the potential to produce damaging wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2

SPC still has much of the area in a slight risk for severe tstms today, with ern CT/Long Island in a marginal risk, with timing from late afternoon into this evening.

For Sat the slight risk includes NE NJ and NYC, with a marginal risk over the rest of the CWA except for SE CT, and an afternoon timing.

Primary threat both days is for damaging winds. Wet bulb zero temps aoa 13 kft are too high for any large hail threat to materialize despite ample CAPE fcst to be aloft in the hail growth zone of -10C to -30C. While storms should be progressive, can't rule out the heaviest ones from dropping a fast inch of rain, especially on Sat per 06Z HRRR and also 12Z HREF 30-40% probability of over an inch of rain in 3 hours over the Hudson Valley and western CT.

Additional chances for showers and tstms come in by Sunday afternoon with a wave coming in from the west, and could last into Mon night or Tue morning. Areal QPF of 1-2 inches looks possible, with the higher amts from NYC north/west. Locally higher amts are also possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Saturday: W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Chance of afternoon/evening tstms with strong winds possible.

Sunday: Chance of afternoon showers/tstms. MVFR or lower cond possible.

Sunday night into Tuesday: Showers/tstms likely. MVFR or lower cond at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through the middle of next week. However, there is a chance of tstm development thru the period which could result in hazardous conditions at times, particularly late day/evening Fri and Sat. Also, a few gusts may get close to 25 kt in E flow from Mon afternoon into Tue, especially on the ocean, with ocean seas up to 4 ft.

Rip Currents...

Lighter winds with a more westerly component and lower swells will drop the risk to moderate today and low for Saturday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966

July 4: KEWR: 105/1949 KBDR: 98/1949 KNYC: 102/1949 KLGA: 100/1949 KJFK: 101/2010 KISP: 97/2010

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018

July 4: KEWR: 81/2002 KBDR: 80/2002 KNYC: 81/2002 KLGA: 82/1999 KJFK: 80/2002 KISP: 76/2002

July 5: KEWR: 81/1999 KBDR: 74/2018 KNYC: 82/1999 KLGA: 86/1999 KJFK: 80/1999 KISP: 78/1999

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>012. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012. NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None.