textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

The area remains behind a cold front today with low pressure well to the northeast bringing a long-lasting cold air mass. A cold front will move through Wednesday night. High pressure will build back in to end the week. Thereafter, another low pressure system may impact the area late in the weekend or early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Messages:

* A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM today for wind gusts up to 50 mph.

* Dry and cold air remains in place today.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a strong pressure gradient has sets up. Some gusts in the NYC metro area and along the coast have been well over 50 mph. Winds look to be strongest in the morning, as diurnal heating gets underway, but should slowly diminish through the day from late morning onward as the strong low heads farther away from the region.

Can't rule out some flurries making its way down into areas NW of NYC (mainly Orange county) given robust lake effect bands across central/wrn NY with a fetch extending back to Lake Huron. The WRF-ARW2 is also bringing some flurries across NYC and western and central Long Island from 10 am through 1 pm, so cannot rule out flurries here as well.

Temperatures will only rise to the upper 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages:

* Cold and mostly dry conditions expected. with a cold front bringing a chance of snow showers late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Winds are expected to be below wind advisory criteria by the start of the tonight period, but may remain gusty with gusts 20-30 mph possible. Cold temperatures persist with lows in the lower/mid 20s.

Another shortwave rounds the base of the trough over the area on Wednesday which will force a cold front through late in the day and into Wednesday night, with a chance of snow showers. No significant impacts are anticipated with this chance of snow showers. However, deterministic models are developing a broad area of low pressure along the frontal boundary, but there is uncertainty among the models as to just where the low will be by daybreak Thursday. This could bring in slightly more snow than what is currently forecast (up to an inch for the South Fork of Long Island, and less than an inch elsewhere) if the low track closer to the forecast area as per the ECMWF and Canadian. This could translate to a more widespread 1-2" of snow (perhaps up to 3" in some locations especially given cold conditions and high snow to liquid ratios). Still too far out to say for sure, and stuck close to the NBM for now.

Cold and brisk conditions are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night, with highs in the lower/mid 30s, and lows at night in the teens for the interior and lower 20s for the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

What's Changed: There have been no significant changes to the long term period, and the NBM was closely followed for this upcoming cold and dry period.

* A cold and dry air mass encompasses the local area for the period. Expect temperatures to be about 5-10 degrees below normal through the weekend, with some moderation early next week.

* There is a chance of precipitation late Sunday into the overnight with a fast moving clipper system. This looks to be an all snow event, with perhaps some rain mixing in at coastal locations.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G20kt.

Wednesday night: Chance of snow showers after midnight with brief MVFR or lower cond. WSW winds G15-20kt.

Thursday: Becoming VFR early. NW winds G20kt.

Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gales continue on all waters today with gusts upwards of 40-45 kt. The ocean waters may hang onto gale force wind gusts for the first half of tonight before dropping to SCA. SCA cond then look to remain on the ocean through at least Wed night, and from tonight into the early daytime hours Wed for the non ocean waters.

Seas over 5 ft linger on the ocean waters into daytime Thu, and possibly into Thu night-Fri out east. There may be a bit of a lull for Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, where seas drop below 5 ft.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.