textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of rain Thursday into Friday could lead to localized nuisance flooding, especially in areas of poor drainage.

2) Showers possible Saturday night with above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A frontal system to our south and west pushes north of the area on Saturday with high pressure generally over the Western Atlantic. This promotes an increasing SW flow ahead of a weak cold frontal passage Saturday night as the frontal system pulls north. NBM remains with likely PoPs but it may continue to be overdone as rain showers may be more scattered Saturday evening/night. Additionally, some weak elevated instability may result in an isolated thunderstorm Saturday evening and into the night. The cold front then pushes south on Sunday and washes out as the Western Atlantic high pressure remains in place through early next week.

A more persistent SW flow regime sets up early next week with a high pressure ridge intensifying to the southeast. This SW flow will allow for warmer air to move into the area resulting in a warming trend through at least the middle of next week. Highs Saturday through Monday may be largely in the low to middle 50s. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures for western and inland areas may climb into the 60s with some locations possibly hitting 70. Coastal areas and Long Island likely remain in the 50s with the cold water moderating the airmass.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday Afternoon: IFR/LIFR with periods of rain and fog.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of rain, with VFR possible in the afternoon.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers, mainly at night.

Sunday: Possible MVFR or lower early with a chance of showers, otherwise mainly VFR.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Marginal SCA conditions continue on the ocean waters thru the remainder of the day with seas near 5 ft gradually lowering. Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6pm.

Into this evening, areas of fog likely develop on at least the ocean, and could become dense with visibilities lowering to near or less than 1 nm. Will continue to monitor trends and observations should an Advisory be necessary.

Winds and seas briefly abate Thursday, before passing low pressure just to the south builds seas toward 5 ft on the ocean Thursday evening, with E gusts approaching 25 kt. Winds lighten Friday, but ocean seas likely hang near 5 ft through Friday night at the least.

SCA conditions become likely on the ocean Saturday afternoon and night ahead of a cold frontal passage with wind gusts near 25kt and seas 5-7 feet. Wave heights may be slow to fall on Sunday but sub- SCA conditions on all waters are expected by Sunday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.