textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for some locations for the Monday morning high tide cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low pressure developing along the front will pass south of Long Island late tonight into early Monday, with overall minor impacts.

2) Brief minor coastal flooding expected Monday morning and again on Tuesday for some spots.

3) A warm front passing to the north could bring shower, possibly thunderstorm to Long Island/SE CT Tuesday night, followed by a warm day on Wednesday.

4) Low pressure with a strong cold front may bring some wind impacts Friday into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 4.

Global models show the potential of northern and southern stream energy phasing and producing low pressure with a strong cold front, impacting the forecast area Friday into Saturday. Differences in extent and timing of phasing are leading to differences in the placement of the surface low(s) and related cold front. What appears to be more certain is some rainfall during this period, likely with limited, if any, flooding potential. Not anticipating severe thunderstorms with this system at this time, however a strong pressure gradient could lead to some wind impacts and an eventual need for some wind headlines. Freeze headlines could also be needed for some of the interior Saturday night due to strong cold advection.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: VFR

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible early. Chance of a shower/isolated thunderstorm towards KGON at night.

Wednesday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible in showers, especially afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Increasing winds along with building seas will produce SCA conditions on all waters, lasting thru most of tonight. Residual hazardous ocean seas should last on the ocean Mon into Mon night.

Another possible SCA event late Tue night into Wed for the ern ocean waters with the next frontal system.

At least SCA conditions appear to be likely Fri through Sat with the approach and passage of a strong cold front. Gales could occur on all waters, but would like to see more model consistency before making a mention of this potential in the HWO.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-335- 340. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.