textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of showers will continue through early this morning, especially close to the coast. An isolated thunderstorm possible across Long Island.

2) There is a high rip current risk at ocean beaches through this evening.

3) Mainly dry Tuesday into Wednesday with the next chance of showers on Thursday, potentially continuing into the upcoming weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3

High pressure will build over the area Monday night through the middle of the week. It should remain dry with seasonably warm temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The only exception is a low probability for a passing shower Tuesday afternoon across New London County Connecticut. Some weak lift and residual moisture may support an few brief showers Tuesday afternoon.

A broad upper trough will push towards the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Low pressure over southeast Canada will drag a cold front across the area on Thursday. The front will be entering the area late Wednesday night, but forcing is weak and moisture is limited. There is a signal in the last few runs of the modeling for a jet streak to pass to our north on Thursday with some shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper trough to our west. This could be enough to develop showers and possibly a thunderstorm on Thursday as the front slowly moves through the area. The NBM has maintained chance PoPs on Thursday and this seems reasonable as there is still a decent amount of ensemble spread. There is a plausible scenario where any showers on Thursday remain isolated as dynamics aloft remain weak.

The front is likely to stall to the south on Friday and may remain there into at least the first half of the upcoming weekend. Some of the uncertainty with shortwave energy on Thursday may persist Friday into the weekend as the the upper trough lingers over the east. A few waves of low pressure may develop on the front to the south in response to the troughing. Chances for showers, possibly a thunderstorm, exist late Friday into the weekend. Friday through the weekend will not be a complete washout, but there may be a period where showers are more likely than others. This will become better resolved over the next few days.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday night: Drier conditions with an improvement to VFR, mainly after 06z.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm at night with MVFR possible.

Thursday: MVFR or lower at times. Chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA winds and seas will continue on the ocean waters into this afternoon. Winds will weaken through the morning, but lingering 5-6 ft seas are anticipated, especially east of Fire Island Inlet into the afternoon. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels this evening through Friday as a relatively weak pressure gradient remains in place.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ355.