textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure passes to the north tonight, sending a strong cold front through the area Thursday morning. A secondary low deepens over northern New England on Thursday and then tracks north across eastern Canada Thursday night into Friday. Weak high pressure builds in from the southwest on Saturday. Deepening low pressure passes will south and east of the waters Saturday night into Sunday. Stronger high pressure will then build in for Monday. A frontal system may impact the area early to mid next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Points:

* Ahead of an approaching cold front there will be a period of mainly light snow late evening into the morning hours New Year's Day. However, an advisory level snow of 2 to 3 inches is expected across New London County in southeast Connecticut.

* Brief period of snowfall rates around 0.5"/hr possible eastern Long Island and south central CT.

* A strong cold frontal passage Thursday morning may be accompanied by snow showers, possibly a snow squall.

* Brisk and colder conditions expected for New Year's Day as low pressure intensifies east of New England.

Forecast largely on track this evening. Vigorous shortwave trough/upper low tracking across the Great Lakes this evening will send a strong cold front toward the area with increasing lift. Light snow is beginning to move into the area from the west with a few mPING reports in Orange County. Analysis of the latest 00z HRRR and 00z NAM 3-km indicate potential for snowfall rates to briefly increase across Suffolk County and portions of Southern Connecticut outside of the Advisory. Forecast soundings show decent snow growth and steep low level lapse rates from 06z-09z. This region will also have a better chance of wet-bulbing down to the surface with more moisture to work with off the ocean. Still think around an inch possible in these areas with 2-3 in the Advisory area, although it would not be surprising for a few locations to pick up 1.5-2 inches in central/eastern Suffolk, portions of New Haven and Middlesex counties. Considering an SPS for these areas for potential slippery travel just after midnight.

Additionally, strong frontogenesis, marginal instability, and gusty west winds along and just ahead of the cold front will create a good chance for a line of moderate to heavy snow showers, and perhaps a snow squall. Latest CAMs are in good agreement at this time. The cold front will quickly move across the area, passing eastern LI/SE CT 8-9 am. Once this happens, gusty NW winds and strong cold advection will follow. Wind chills fall into the single digits to lower teens on Thursday.

Temperatures this evening will likely hold steady around freezing at the coast and the upper 20s inland. Following the cold frontal passage in the morning, temperatures drop into the 20s at the coast and the lower to mid 20s inland.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Brisk and cold conditions continue into Friday night.

Deepening low pressure lifts north across eastern Canada during this time as weak high pressure builds in from the southwest. West winds will gust up to about 20 mph with lows in the teens Thursday night and highs Friday in the upper 20s to around 30. These readings are about 10 degrees below normal. Expect some moderation of temperatures Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Points:

* Below normal cold continues into Monday, with much of the interior remaining below freezing.

* Some moderation is expected for Tuesday after a warm frontal passage.

Cold front should remain to the north Fri night into Sat while low pressure passes well south. This will keep us dry and cold into early next week, with high pressure finally building in Sunday into Monday. As the high slides E Tuesday, a SW return flow should develop and a warm front approach from the SW, bringing some precip, mostly as light snow, but with perhaps a rain/snow mix across ern Long Island and SE CT.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday Night: VFR. NW winds diminishing.

Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt.

Saturday - Monday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gale warning in effect for the ocean waters Thursday with a SCA elsewhere. Deepening low pressure passes to the north tonight, sending a strong cold front across the waters Thursday morning. SW winds will gusts up to 25-30kt, especially the second half of the night. A NW gale then follows for the ocean waters behind the cold front Thursday. Seas are expected to build to 5 to 9 ft on the ocean and 3 to 5 ft across Long Island Sound.

SCA cond expected thereafter for the ocean waters into Fri evening, and for the ern Sound/bays into Thu night or early Fri morning.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for CTZ008- 012. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.