textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

On the land, no significant changes. On the water, some adjustments made to ongoing freezing spray advisories as well as small craft advisories and the gale watch for later this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Arctic airmass, frigid temperatures, wind chills continues into this weekend. Cold weather advisories continue into Saturday morning and could very well be needed again for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

2) Offshore low impacts mainly confined to waters and coastline, not much snow, Sunday into Sunday night with gusty winds being a main contributor.

3) Period of quite weather Monday through Wednesday with a small chance for some areas to get above freezing. This could lead to minor ice issues with melting and refreezing of snowpack.

4) Another coastal system is set to graze the area on late Wednesday night through Thursday, through confidence in the exact timing, track, and impacts from this system still remain to be determined.

KEY MESSAGE 4

A deep digging upper-level trough across the central US Wednesday leads to another surface low developing ahead of it late Wednesday into early Wednesday night out ahead of it in the southeast US. As it moves offshore somewhere around South Carolina into southern Virginia, it will deepen and track northeast late Wednesday night through Thursday night. At this time, we could see potential impacts from this system.

All available guidance agrees on the development of the system. But questions remain on the exact timing, track, and strength of it. It will likely all hinge on how amplified (or flat) the trough becomes and whether the upper-level energy the low develops from occurs farther north or south. Most model guidance would call for a clear or close miss, with it tracking too far south and east, similar to the system this Sunday. In this scenario, most impacts would be limited to coastal/marine hazards, plus some strong winds and maybe brief light snow grazing us.

However, there still remains a very real possibility it could develop and track farther north. In this scenario, we could also see additional snowfall. For now, we'll monitor the latest guidance closely and note any changes with it.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for some MVFR or lower conditions along with a chance of snow, mainly late night Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the terminals east of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night to 20-25 kt, then 30-35 kt on Sunday. There is low confidence at this time on the magnitude of winds and snow.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR with NW flow. Wednesday: VFR with W flow. Chance of reduced visibility in light snow late.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small craft advisories continue across all waters into this evening. Non-ocean drops off from SCA at 10PM while the ocean drops off from SCA at midnight. Along with these small craft advisories for the ocean and Long Island Sound, these marine zones also have freezing spray advisories with likewise Long Island Sound freezing spray advisory until 10PM and the ocean freezing spray advisory until midnight.

A lull in winds and seas expected overnight into Saturday which will make for less freezing spray as well. No marine hazards are in effect overnight through Saturday. However, Saturday night with the pressure gradient steepening and the low strengthening as it approaches well offshore, winds increase to SCA levels and eventually gale levels late. The gales are forecast to continue into Sunday for the eastern ocean zones into Sunday evening. For eastern ocean zones, they could approach storm force wind gusts but not enough confidence to go with storm watch, as wind gust maxima stay in gale range. Along with this will likely be the redevelopment of freezing spray which likely be light but potentially moderate to heavy for some areas as well. Not enough confidence at this time for a heavy freezing spray watch as thinking that maximum freezing spray should be moderate.

Expect a downward trend Sunday night with eastern ocean zones falling below gale and mainly SCA conditions otherwise. Freezing spray could very well still be present for some of the waters.

SCA conditions remain possible on ocean waters due to 25kt gusts through the day Monday with 5-7 ft waves lingering through Monday night. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters into the middle of next week.

CLIMATE

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 30: KEWR: 16/1934 KBDR: 18/1965 KNYC: 16/1934 KLGA: 19/1977 KJFK: 19/1977 KISP: 19/1977

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for CTZ005>012. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-355. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353- 355. Freezing Spray Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350- 353-355. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for ANZ350-353.