textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Special Weather Statement for elevated risk of fire spread expanded for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated risk of fire spread across the area on Tuesday.

2) Above average temperatures on Tuesday become more seasonable for the rest of the week.

3) A strong frontal system will bring rain Wednesday and Wednesday night, possibly lingering into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

The chances for rain increase across western portions of the area later Tuesday night as a strong cold front starts to approach from the west. A steady rainfall is progged by NWP and the AI global guidance. With the low level flow becoming more southerly right ahead of the cold front look for the lower portion of the atmosphere to stabilize, and thus should limit any convective potential. There may be enough instability above the boundary layer that a rumble or two of thunder cannot be completely ruled out, but overall expect essentially a beneficial moderate rainfall region wide. QPF event totals have decreased some as NWP guidance appears to be progressing the frontal boundary a bit faster to the east Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thus, the bulk of the rain takes place Wednesday afternoon and evening. There remains a chance of rain / showers into the day Thursday, but PoPs have lowered, especially for further west across the area. A second wave of low pressure is expected to develop to the south, but NWP and AI consensus is further to the south and east with this trailing disturbance. Thus any rain on Thursday should be lighter in nature with clouds expected to linger into Thursday evening, with skies now expected to clear later Thursday night into Friday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Night: Slight chance of a shower NW of NYC metro. MVFR or lower ceilings possible. SW gusts 20-25 kt possible, mainly near the coast.

Wednesday-Wednesday Night: Showers with MVFR or lower. Slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt, mainly during the daytime.

Thursday: Chance of showers and MVFR or lower.

Friday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20 kt, diminishing at night.

Saturday: Chance of showers and MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA conditions will continue on the ocean through tonight, mainly in marginal seas. Winds increase again on Tuesday with SCA conditions likely on all waters. Expanded the SCA for the non ocean waters 11 am - 8pm Tuesday. A period of gale force wind gusts are possible very late in the day Tuesday into the first half of Tuesday night for the ocean and the eastern and southern bays of LI. These conditions may very well continue Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The cold front passes through Wednesday night with sub advisory conditions ending from west to east for the non-ocean waters. However, seas should remain elevated on the ocean and may extend small craft conditions for portions of the ocean into early Thursday morning. Sub advisory conditions should prevail for Thursday afternoon into the first half of Thursday night. Sub advisory conditions may be short lived, as small craft conditions may return on Friday on a NW to W wind.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.