textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to note.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather expected mid week, with the highest probability of wet weather from late Wednesday afternoon into daytime Thursday.

2) Dry and noticeably warmer conditions expected for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The upper level trough axis pushes east of the region tonight. This should lead to clearing skies courtesy of negative vorticity advection and upper level ridging building into the area. Other than a few sprinkles or a brief passing light shower for the early evening, it will be dry with a trend towards clearing skies into Tuesday morning with seasonably cool conditions on a deep W to WNW flow regime. Tuesday will feature warmer temperatures mainly due to a good degree of sun as temperatures reach well into the 60s, with lower 70s a possibility for the usual warmer locations of metro NE NJ. Coastal locations, especially further east may cool some later in the day due to localized sea breezes with a weaker synoptic flow. Clouds then begin to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of the next system. Rain / shower chances are then expected to increase through the day from W to E as a warm front nudges in first, followed by the approach of a slowing cold front / occluded boundary later Wednesday into Wednesday night. This does not appear to be an impactful storm system, with mainly just another round of beneficial light to moderate rain along with a slight chance of some rumbles of thunder mainly for the second half of Wednesday into Thursday morning. Amounts may be locally higher where any embedded thundershowers can occur. Afterwards the system becomes vertically stacked with a cold pool aloft keeping shower chances in place during the day Thursday. However, shower activity Thursday is expected to be more scattered in nature. With the cold pool aloft cannot rule out thundershowers or a few thunderstorms. This may depend on whether breaks of sun can occur to aid in destabilization during the afternoon hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Clouds may linger into a portion of Friday depending on how quickly the upper level low fills and progresses to the northeast. Most global NWP and AI guidance have trended slightly faster with a more east-northeast progression. With some cold air aloft remaining any surface heating from sunshine would result in at least some broken cumulus for the late morning and afternoon hours. If the upper level low remains close enough to the area some pop-up showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for the late morning and afternoon. With some partial sunshine temperatures should warm close to 70 on Friday as a warming trend begins into the weekend. With high pressure over the area and upper ridging ensuing temperatures have a good chance to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s Saturday, with more widespread 80s potentially into Sunday as night time minimums warm into the 50s, to around 60 in the metropolitan areas.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday: VFR. Sea breeze enhancement in the afternoon with some southerly wind gusts near 20 kt.

Wednesday: Showers becoming likely. A slight chance of thunderstorms. MVFR or lower conditions possible. Southerly winds gusts 20-30 kt.

Thursday: Showers with possible thunderstorms. MVFR or lower conditions possible.

Friday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower conditions possible. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

High pressure will be in control along the coastal waters through Tuesday, although late Tuesday afternoon marginal small craft wind gusts may occur for the western most ocean waters and into the western most portions of the south shore bays. Otherwise sub advisory conditions should prevail through much of Tuesday night. Afterwards, a southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front during Wednesday. This will lead to small craft conditions developing quickly Wednesday morning and lasting through Wednesday evening for the most of the non-ocean waters, and possibly through late Wednesday night for most of the ocean waters. Occluded low pressure will be over the waters Thursday resulting in a lighter pressure gradient and a return to sub advisory winds and marginal small craft seas on a portion of the ocean. Sub advisory conditions should continue for Friday into Saturday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.