textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense fog has lifted over New York City and Nassau County.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of of fog early this morning will be dense in spots.

2) Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon from NYC north/west will be followed by more numerous showers from NYC south/east tonight into Monday morning.

3) Unsettled weather expected toward mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dense fog advy cancelled for all but Suffolk County as outflow boundary from the NW scoured out any dense fog in NYC and Nassau County. Advy remains in effect for Suffolk but vsbys there may be on the rise shortly as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Expect scattered afternoon showers and possibly a tstm from mid to late afternoon from NYC north/west ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers should become more likely from NYC south/east tonight as an amplifying upper trough sends the cold front across, with one or more weak frontal waves passing to the south and east. At any rate the rainfall will be light, with less than 1/10 inch QPF expected.

Highs today still have potential to approach 80 degrees in the urban corridor of NE NJ, with temps reaching the lower/mid 70s most elsewhere, with the exception of the south shore of Long Island and coastal SE CT where highs will remain in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Low pressure over the Northern Plains on Tue will dive SE into the Great Lakes region Tue night, then head across the Northeast Wed into Thu, then pass slowly E on Fri. Showers with this system should start to arrive Wed afternoon, with the most likely time for organized rainfall from Wed night into daytime Thu and possibly Thu night. Chance PoP should also linger into Fri as the low pulls off to the east. Some uncertainty exists as to rainfall amts, with the ECMWF/Canadian wetter and the GFS drier. Consensus approach argues for rainfall of at least 1/2 to 3/4 inch with localized amts over an inch. As the parent upper low closes off this system could be slower to exit than currently fcst, with light shower activity possibly lingering into part of the weekend.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday Night: Chance of showers and MVFR in the evening. Showers likely, especially closer to the coast at night along with MVFR, potentially IFR at times.

Monday: Chance of showers and MVFR early, especially near the coast, then VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt possible in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Showers developing through the day. MVFR or lower conditions. S winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday: Showers possible with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Dense fog advy remains in effect on all waters through this morning. Fog on Long Island Sound appears to be more on the Long Island side and also out east, and remains fairly widespread on the ocean, bays, and the harbor. An outflow boundary moving out over the waters may help improve vsbys sooner than fcst this morning.

Expanded SCA to all ocean waters out 20 nm as swells 5-6 ft were already approaching 44025. These swells should continue into tonight. A few 5-footers could linger into Mon AM S of Montauk.

S flow could gust up to 25 kt on the ocean waters W of Fire Island Inlet and possibly on the Long Island south shore bays Wed afternoon and early evening.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ331-332-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355.