textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions thru late week, with slightly below seasonable temps.

2) Scattered snow showers or a brief period of light snow possible Friday Night with shortwave/weak frontal passage.

3) The probability for a light accumulating snowfall Sunday night into Monday remains low, but continue monitoring subsequent forecasts as inherent uncertainty remains in this time range.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Deterministic GFS/ECWMF/GEM model guidance in general agreement with northern stream shortwave and southern stream low remaining unphased, with a progressive west to east movement of a southern low and secondary development along the the Mid Atlantic coast and offshore. This prevailing scenario at this point would only bring a brief and light snow (possibly mixed with rain NYC/NJ metro and LI), from northern stream shortwave lift briefly expanding northern edge of precip shield.

ECMWF/GFS/GEM NWP ensemble means also in general agreement with keeping low pressure well south of the region, with ECMWF mean exhibiting the most development. There are still a small percentage of members, mostly ECMWF, that are indicating a farther north and/or more amplified solution bringing low chance probs for a 1-3" snowfall, although these probs have wavered up and down over the last 24 hours. Very slight probs (less than 10%) of this scenario with GEPS and GEFS.

Perhaps, not surprisingly, ECMWF and GFS AI ensemble are exhibiting similar behavior to their NWP counterparts, although both have trended steadily south with their QPF axis over the last 24 hours. The GFS AI only skirting slight prob of .1" liquid qpf, while ECMWF AI still presents low chance probs for a 1-3" snowfall.

Expanding out to NWS NBM superensemble, prob of 1-2" snowfall is in the 10-20% range, mostly from ECWMF contribution. Probs have wavered in that range for the last 24 hours, basically confirming a small ensemble percentage indicating a more amplified/farther north track.

Ensemble sensitivity appears to lie in shortwave energy coming onshore across PAC NW in the next 36 to 48 hrs, and its amplitude/timing and degree of interaction with the southern stream low. A deeper northern stream shortwave solution favoring more interaction with southern stream and farther north/amplified surface low pressure.

Have stayed close to NBM pops, with continued low probability for light accumulating snowfall. But as noted above, since we are still 84 hours away, with inherent uncertainty, will need to continue to monitor model initialization and trends.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Late Thursday night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G15-20kt.

Friday night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G15-20kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Sunday night and Monday: Still a low chance of snow inland, and either snow/rain at the NYC metros/coast, with MVFR or lower cond possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA conditions on all waters through this afternoon, subsiding on nearshore waters early this evening, and late this evening on ocean waters.

Sub-advisory conditions late Thursday Night through Sunday as high pressure builds south and west of the waters. The exception will be potential for marginal SCA gusts Fri Night into early Sat AM with a cold frontal passage.

Low potential for SCA conditions with low pressure passing to the south and east Sunday night into Monday, but still inherent uncertainty at this point.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.