textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather expected tonight into Friday with slow moving low pressure. Potential for heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms, mainly on Thursday.

2) Unseasonably warm this weekend into next week. Cold water safety concerns for this weekend with good boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Pattern change coming up for this weekend into next week. Once the trough shifts east, flow becomes zonal with an eventual ridge building in. Stuck close to NBM and WPC guidance for temperatures which shows several days of above normal temperatures.

While temperatures this weekend will likely top out in the 80s, dewpoints stay down in the 40s and 50s. This will give the air a more comfortable feel. Additionally, there are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A Marine Weather Statement will likely be issued at the end of this week.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: A chance of showers with possible MVFR. Otherwise VFR.

Friday: A chance of showers with MVFR or lower conditions possible, mainly early.

Saturday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with brief MVFR or lower conditions possible.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Gale warning cancelled as wind gusts are well below gale thresholds and are in the 25-30 kt range. All gusts expected to lower to closer to 20 kt overnight. Small craft advisories were issued in place, until 11PM EDT this evening for the non-ocean zones and until 2AM Thursday for the ocean west of Moriches Inlet to match the Moriches to Montauk SCA segment.

Additionally, ocean seas near 5 ft are forecast tonight until 2AM Thursday. 4 ft ocean seas are forecast thereafter for the rest of the overnight period.

Conditions thereafter generally remain under SCA criteria. There will be a brief period Friday and then Saturday night where seas could touch 5 ft on the ocean waters.SCA ocean seas are possible Thu Night into Friday in response to E/SE swells from offshore low and exiting coastal low.

There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A Marine Weather Statement will likely be issued at the end of this week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350-353-355.