textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Isolated shower threat with a slight chance of thunderstorms this aft/eve, particularly across the interior. No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A frontal system will bring the potential for heavy downpours and iso-sct thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night. Additional iso-sct thunderstorm activity is also possible Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 1

After a good stretch of weather for today and Wednesday, look for more clouds into Thursday in advance of an approaching warm front. At this point the ESATs are not overly impressive compared to past notable heavy rain events so far this warm season. M-Climate and other anomalous indicators are not overly impressive. PWATs get to 1.75 inches which is high, but not as high or notable as some recent heavy rain occurrences. Sfc dew points are progged to get to the upper 60s and lower 70s so there will be a notable uptick in the humidity during Thursday. The warm front pushes through late Thu / Thu night, followed by a slowing cold front into Friday. The upper trough axis approaches late Thu into Thu night and thus far the NWP and AI guidance appears to having a lack of consolidation with embedded shortwave activity. Will have to wait and see if there is an increase in the bundling or consolidation of shortwave activity in subsequent forecast packages which would increase any synoptic forcing and up the potential for widespread heavy rain. The Colorado State AI guidance is indicating a slight risk of excessive rainfall for late Thursday, while WPC maintains a marginal risk. A skinny CAPE profile is indicated on the GFS forecast soundings with enough instability to be suggestive of the potential for heavy rain with any embedded convective activity. For Friday with upper level troughing in place and a lingering cold front nearby, there will remain the chance of scattered shower and t-storm activity capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds.

The front should begin to inch its way offshore Friday night into Saturday morning as per global NWP and AI consensus. Therefore at this point in time the weekend appears to be nice and dry with seasonably warm temperatures and slightly lower humidity levels from the previous couple of days.

OUTLOOK FOR 12z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday: VFR. Light NW winds, becoming S by late day.

Thursday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR w/ SHRA/TSRA.

Friday: Mostly VFR, sub VFR possible in afternoon w/ SHRA/TSRA.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub small craft conditions are expected for the remainder of this week.

Occasional gusts to 20 kt this afternoon along nearshore waters this afternoon into evening.

A southerly flow increases late Wed night into Thursday, with ocean seas getting to around 4 ft and gusts approaching 20 kt. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail with seas and winds diminishing for the weekend with a light pressure gradient with high pressure building across for the weekend.

Rip Currents:

Low risk of rips for NYC and western half of LI beaches today with a combo of 1 to 2 ft E/SE wind waves and swells, with a moderate risk for the E Suffolk beaches, where there will be a greater influence of 2-3 ft SW wind waves.

Low risk of rips for NYC beaches on Wednesday, with a moderate risk for Nassau and Suffolk beaches with a greater mix of 2 to 3 ft SE swells, especially further east.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.