textproduct: New York
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes. Updated for 12Z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Warm and muggy conditions expected through Saturday with high pressure in place.
2) Rain chances return early next week as a low pressure system impacts the region. Heavy rainfall is possible on Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A deep moisture plume advects north into the area ahead of a digging upper trough late this weekend. Associated frontal system tracks through the OH Valley and toward the region late Sunday into Monday.
PWATs are progged to climb above 2 inches during this time and WPC has added a slight risk of excessive rainfall from NYC on north and west, and a marginal elsewhere on Monday. With a warm, moist air mass in place as the main cold front approaches Monday afternoon, will need to also monitor the potential for severe weather.
Still some uncertainty on just how quickly the system exits, though global guidance appears to be converging on a slightly stronger upper low off to the west, which could lead to a slower exit of the system and unsettled conditions lingering into Tuesday.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm near KGON.
Saturday: Mainly VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm.
Monday: Mainly VFR, chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon shower.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
High pressure in place through Saturday will maintain relatively tranquil conditions on the coastal waters.
Increasing S flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system will bring the next chance for SCA conditions on the ocean waters Sunday night, with seas building toward 5-7 ft by Monday. SCA conditions are possible on non ocean waters as well with gusts approaching 25 kt Monday afternoon. Winds lower by Tuesday, but seas may remain elevated on the ocean near 5 ft.
Rip Currents:
There is a moderate risk for rip currents at local ocean beaches today and Saturday. Winds this afternoon will be light, mainly under 10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph on Saturday. SSE swells 3 to 4 ft at an 8 sec period through the period drive the moderate risk.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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