textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A coastal low pressure system passes southeast of the region through tonight, and into the Canadian Maritimes by Wednesday. High pressure then returns for Wednesday and Thursday, with a cold frontal passage Thursday afternoon. Low pressure will then pass to the south and east Friday night into Saturday, with weak high pressure returning Saturday night into Sunday, followed by another cold front Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Points:

* Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect until 10pm for Orange, Putnam, Western Passaic Counties through today, the advisory for Rockland has been discontinued due to temperatures getting above freezing. Snow criteria falls short in these zones, except for northern Orange and portions of western most Orange County, mainly along and north of I-84 where 2 to 3 inches of snow occur, perhaps localized 4 inch amounts in higher elevations. The advisory was allowed to continue elsewhere due to the prospect of pockets of freezing rain working in at times.

* Coastal storm will continues to bring all rain for the metro, the coast, and southern most portions of the interior.

For this afternoon have included occasional to brief freezing rain wording for northern most zones. This also includes Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, and Northern Middlesex as temperatures hover around 31 to 32 along northern edge of our interior CT zones. Have chosen to go with an SPS here due to lower areal coverage with freezing rain. Advisories allowed to continue for much of the interior Lower Hudson Valley (Putnam and Orange) with Putnam and portions of Orange dealing with prospect of some freezing rain with N to NE wind in these interior northern locations. W Passaic was allowed to remain in place with advisory, however temps here are beginning to nose to and above freezing with slippery conditions likely just including higher elevations.

Temperatures should rise to above freezing for all but Orange County by mid afternoon, the upper 30s/lower 40s for NYC/NJ metro, and as high as the upper 40s. Winds pick up in wake of the departing low late this afternoon/tonight, with NW winds 15-25 gusting up to 35 mph. Refreezing of any standing water is likely tonight as much of the area drops below freezing.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key Points:

* Dry conditions for the period.

* High temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s, which is about 10 degrees below normal.

For Wednesday, high pressure over the OH Valley moves slowly east, with the local area caught between it and the departing coastal system. The pressure gradient looks to relax by midday Wed, so any lingering gusts should subside. Thursday looks similar as the high remains to our southwest and a cold front approaches from the northwest. It looks to pass through the area Thursday afternoon dry and with little fanfare, other than some increased cloudiness.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures expected, running as much as 10-15 degrees below normal Friday and again Sunday night/Monday.

* Low pressure passing to the south may give a glancing blow late Friday night into Saturday.

Very cold on Friday as a 1030 mb high (supported via strong mid level confluence behind the departing upper trough over eastern Canada) slides across, with highs from the upper 20s well inland to mid 30s metro/coastal sections. The high will retreat Fri night, with a srn stream low passing to the south in progressive quasi- zonal flow aloft. Polar jet may be modeled too strongly and ridging off the SE coast too weakly, so despite suppressed 00Z GFS solution think the sys will at least give a glancing blow late Fri night into early Sat afternoon, with 30 PoP for all but the lower Hudson Valley. Thermal profiles supportive of light snow late Fri night/early Sat morning, then a transition to a light rain/snow mix for interior SE CT and all rain across ern Long Island and coastal SE CT for late morning/early afternoon.

Cold frontal passage Sunday night as a closed low swings across ern Canada will usher in yet another very cold air mass for early next week, with lows in the teens/20s and highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s for Monday. This shot of cold air looks to be longer lasting than the one for Thu night/Fri of this week.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday PM: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon/evening.

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light snow/rain in the morning, mainly E of the NYC metros.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

SCA remains in effect on all waters through Wed AM in association with the coastal low pressure system. Gusts to 30 kt are likely, occasionally to 35 kt, with seas 5-6 ft on the ocean and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas diminish through Wednesday with seas falling below advisory thresholds by the end of the day. Winds and seas then begin to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday morning ahead of a cold front that passes through in the afternoon and brings marginal gales on the ocean waters. SCA conds otherwise likely on all waters late Wed night into Thursday morning and lasting into Thursday night.

Any lingering 5-ft seas on the outer coastal ocean waters out east early Fri morning should subside quickly as strong high pressure builds from the west. No hazards anticipated thereafter through Sunday afternoon due to a weak pressure gradient and lack of appreciable swell, with seas no higher than 2-3 ft.

HYDROLOGY

Minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is possible with 0.5-1.0 inch of precipitation likely, especially with snowmelt and any clogged drains with fallen leaves. Rainfall rates however are not expected to exceed 0.25 inch/hr. This would be for a period from midday to this evening.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ067. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ355.