textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There have been no significant changes to the forecast. The threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening has increased somewhat. A flood watch remains in effect until 11pm tonight for the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, NYC, Nassau County and Fairfield County.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms are likely today into early Friday, mainly for NYC and areas north and west. Isolated instances of flash flooding and scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also likely, particularly west of the Hudson River.

2) After another chance of thunderstorms on Friday, a dry and seasonable forecast for the weekend, with a warming trend early next week.

3) High risk for rip currents at the Atlantic facing beaches today.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Winds increase today out of the S closer to 15-20 kt. This combined with a building swell of 3-4ft at 5s out of the S/SE will bring a high risk of rip currents. The risk through much of the day may end up being moderate for southeast Suffolk, but high is possible by the late afternoon/evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower at times w/SHRA and TSRA.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower in any showers or thunderstorms, mainly across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub small craft conditions are expected through the week.

Southerly flow increases late Wednesday night into Thursday, with ocean seas getting to around 4 ft and gusts approaching 20 kt. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail with seas and winds diminishing for the weekend with a light pressure gradient with high pressure building across for the weekend.

Rip Currents:

A moderate risk continues today with a weak swell component and around 10-15 kt S/SW winds.

Winds increase on Thursday out of the S closer to 15-20 kt. This combined with a building swell of 3-4ft at 5s out of the S/SE will bring a high risk of rip currents. The risk through much of the day may end up being moderate for southeast Suffolk, but high is possible by the late afternoon/evening.

The risk lowers back to moderate on Friday with a lingering 3ft 6s swell out of the SE.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for CTZ005-009. NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for NYZ067>075-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None.