textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A warm front passes through tonight, quickly followed by a cold front Monday afternoon. Low pressure stalls over Southeast Canada on Tuesday as a cold airmass builds over the area Tuesday through the end of the week. A cold front moves through Wednesday night. High pressure may briefly build in to end the week. Another low pressure system may impact the area late in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Point(s):

* Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include Union, Essex, E. Bergen in NJ, S. Westchester in NY, and S. Fairfield in CT.

* A period of freezing rain is possible this evening before transitioning to plain rain, mostly by midnight, but earlier for southern areas.

A large low pressure system builds into the area tonight. A warm front pushes east this afternoon and eventually through the area tonight. Antecedent cold air remains in place ahead of this front. As overrunning precipitation is expected to move into the area late this afternoon and overnight. Given the cold temperatures that remain over the area, the potential for freezing rain has increased a bit, mainly for interior NJ and coastal SE CT, so Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded to include this possible light freezing rain.

Temperatures are expected to continue to increase this evening and overnight as a warm front promotes southerly flow with temperatures rising above freezing everywhere by midnight. The best chance of seeing accumulating ice is for interior portions of CT and the Lower Hudson Valley where up to 0.1-0.2" of ice is possible. Elsewhere in the advisory, a light glaze to a 0.1" of ice can be expected.

It is also worth noting that given temperatures have been sub- freezing for more than 36 hours everywhere, even if air temperatures climb to just above freezing, any surface, especially if it's shaded, may remain below freezing for a bit longer than the air. This may result in localized areas of icing for any area outside of the advisory that remains near freezing at the onset of the precipitation.

The warm front pushes north overnight and much of the precip along with it. Much of the area appears to be warm sectored during the second half of the night into early Monday morning. This means that there may be a several hour break of any rain showers, though some drizzle can't be ruled out. Also there is the potential for fog, and perhaps some pockets of locally dense fog depending on the progression of the warm front.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key Point(s):

* A cold front ushers in sharply colder air during the period.

* Gusty winds Monday night into Tuesday.

After the warm front lifts north of the area in the morning the cold front quickly pushes through late morning into the early afternoon. This will bring another period of rain which may be moderate in intensity at times.

Behind the cold frontal passage, the wind picks up fairly quickly with strong cold air advection. The wind may allow for quickly drying surfaces before temperatures dip below freezing once again Monday night which may aid in any black ice development, but any melting snow can lead to localized issues, especially on untreated or any remaining wet surfaces or roadways. Highs on Monday will top out in the upper 40s to near 50 along the coast.

Wind gusts likely continue to remain in the 30-40mph range Monday night with strong CAA allowing substantial BL mixing even overnight. A wind advisory was not considered at this time but may be needed with subsequent updates depending on trends of the strength of the gusts.

Strong winds continue Tuesday but gradually subside into the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, Tuesday should be fairly dry under mixed skies, though it will be markedly colder with highs struggling to rise above freezing, even at the coast. Wind chills will be in the teens and low 20s during the day Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Points:

* Polar airmass encompasses the region during the long term period. Expect temperatures to remain below 5 to 10 degrees below normal through much of the period. Temperatures only rise to mid 30s at most. Wind chills pretty much stay below freezing the whole time.

* There will be two chances for precipitation in the long term. The first one will be Thursday into Thursday night. With cold temperatures in place, expect snow during this event. It is still too early to determine specific accumulations, but the latest NBM has about a 20% chance of 1 inch of snow for the entire area. This has trended down the past 36 hours.

* The second chance chance for precipitation will come sometime in the weekend timeframe, while most of the precipitation will be snow for this second event, some rain may be possible across the southern portion of the CWA as temperatures do warm above freezing.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday: IFR with rain/showers, Improving to VFR late day/early evening. SW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-30kt.

Wednesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in -SN.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub advisory conditions prevail into this evening. During this evening the winds begin to increase on the ocean waters. Small craft conditions will be likely towards late evening and into the overnight. Small craft conditions will then become likely on Monday for the non-ocean waters. Gale conditions are expected on the ocean waters Monday afternoon. These gales then expand to all of the waters by Monday night, remaining in effect through the day on Tuesday with winds gusts of 40 kt possible. Gale conditions drop by Tuesday night but remain at SCA thresholds.

Small Craft Advisory conditions look to continue on at least the ocean waters Wednesday through Thursday. Thereafter, winds and seas look to decrease.

HYDROLOGY

There remain no hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for CTZ005>008. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for CTZ009. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ069- 070. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for NYZ071. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EST Monday for NYZ067-068. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NJZ002- 004-103. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for NJZ104>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Gale Warning from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 AM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350- 353-355.