textproduct: New York

SYNOPSIS

A frontal system moves across the region today and tonight. High pressure briefly builds on Monday before quickly giving way to developing low pressure over the southern states. A secondary coastal low forms along the Mid Atlantic coast early Tuesday, passing just south and east of Long Island Tuesday afternoon/evening. High pressure largely prevails for the second half of the week with the exception of a cold frontal passage on Thursday. Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure shifting offshore this morning gives way to an approaching frontal system that moves across the area through tonight. S winds pick up this morning and increase in speed into the afternoon with some gusts along the coast of 20-30 mph possible.

The parent low pressure system passes well to the north of the area this afternoon and evening, allowing for a warm front to approach and move through at least the southern and eastern portions of the area today. This will allow for high temperatures to rise into the upper 40s and low 50s for Long Island and SE Connecticut. Highs in the low to middle 40s are expected for the Lower Hudson Valley.

While there may be some initial light snow showers for the Lower Hudson Valley later this morning, by afternoon, fairly widespread rainfall is expected to develop as the cold front approaches from the west. Given that the rainfall should be developing and intensifying over the area, eastern areas are more likely to see a steadier rainfall into the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall is expected to end during the first half of the night, generally expecting to be dry by midnight. The wind shifts W tonight and then eventually NW allowing for CAA to drop temperatures into the upper 20s inland to low to middle 30s for the coast tonight.

Rainfall amounts of a tenth or two for the western half of the area and up to a half inch for the eastern areas are expected.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Brisk NW flow on Monday will gradually decrease in intensity as high pressure shifts overhead during the day, resulting in dry and generally clear conditions. Temperatures will be cool however, with highs in the upper 30s inland to the lower 40s along the coast. The high pressure quickly shifts to the northeast Monday night with an intensifying low pressure system developing over the Southeast US approaching the area from the southeast into Tuesday morning.

Precipitation is expected to begin to move into the area Tuesday morning, possible before sunrise. Current thinking is that initial p-type will be a light snow for areas north and west of NYC, possibly even briefly in and around NYC. As the low approaches from the southwest, warmer air will move into the coastal areas, pushing the rain-snow line further north into mid-morning. By afternoon, widespread rainfall, possibly moderate to heavy at times, is expected along the coast. Portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and possibly extreme northern portions of NJ may be able to hold onto snow through at least the early afternoon which may help in way of accumulations, but even these areas may begin to mix with snowfall by early to mid-afternoon.

By late afternoon into Tuesday evening, the low passes just south and east of the area with the intensity of precip diminishing quickly. Any precip is expected to come to and end by midnight Wednesday with a brisk NW to N flow quickly drying out the area. Current forecast has overall about an inch of rainfall over the coastal areas. Orange County and the higher elevations of Passaic County may see an accumulation of 2-5" of snow, possibly locally higher for high elevations. 1-3" of snow are possible for other portions of the Lower Hudson Valley with less than an inch expected even further southwest toward the coast.

It is worth noting that there still remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the exact track of the low which will determine how quickly the precipitation moves into the area and how warm or cold the airmass will remain through the day. A slight shift in the track north will result in lower snowfall totals as a mix with rainfall will be more likely for even inland areas.

At this time, winds do not look to be a concern with this system, but the exact track will determine if this will change with a more northward track allowing the coastal areas to be influenced by a southerly LLJ.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key Points:

* About 10 degrees below normal for high temperatures through the entire long term period.

* A cold front moves through Thursday bringing in a frigid airmass for Thursday night into Friday.

* Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

High pressure builds in behind the departing low on Wednesday and will remain in control through the rest of the week aside from a cold frontal passage on Thursday. This is expected to be a dry frontal passage.

Next weekend there is potential for another system to impact the area, but at this time there is too much uncertainty for specifics on rain/snow and stuck close to the NBM during that period.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday Night: Precipitation ending and becoming VFR.

Monday: VFR. NW G15-20kt, mainly in the morning.

Tuesday: MVFR expected in the morning, IFR possible in the afternoon/evening. Precip type mainly snow at KSWF. Rain and/or snow at the onset at the other terminals, changing to rain in the morning. Winds become N in the afternoon with G15-25kt, highest at the coastal terminals.

Wednesday: VFR. NW G15-20kt early.

Thursday: VFR. WSW G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Increased S flow today will result in SCA conditions for all the ocean waters as well as the Great South Bay, Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and the Eastern Long Island Sound. Advisories begin at 15Z this morning and continue through tonight. Other zones may have an occasional gust to near small craft thresholds this afternoon. Small craft conditions may continue into Monday morning before falling below by midday as high pressure builds back into the region. Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels through Monday night.

Winds and seas increase through the day on Tuesday with the passage of an offshore low pressure system. By the afternoon, SCA wind gusts are likely on the ocean waters by the afternoon, and by the evening for the non-ocean waters. There may also be a brief period Tuesday night with gusts reaching gale criteria. Additionally, current wind forecast has seas reaching 5 to 8 feet for the ocean waters. It is worth noting that there is some uncertainty given the nature of the system. A small change in forecast track of the offshore low could cause a larger change in forecast winds than usual.

The system pull away on Wednesday and winds and seas gradually lower, likely falling below SCA criteria by Wednesday afternoon. The next shot at SCA criteria will be with a cold frontal passage on Thursday and then again next weekend with another area of low pressure potentially impacting the area.

HYDROLOGY

No hydrologic concerns expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.