textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Trended higher with chances for showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday. Otherwise, no other significant changes made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms overnight into early Thursday. Some thunderstorms could have strong wind gusts.

2) Drier conditions expected for Friday through Saturday. Days are expected to trend a little cooler and with less humidity as well.

3) Scattered areas of minor coastal flooding likely for vulnerable locales along the south shore of Nassau and Queens and coastal Westchester and Fairfield during the nighttime high tide thru Thursday. Greatest coverage of minor flooding likely for tonight's high tide.

4) Rain appearing more likely Sunday afternoon into Monday. Low confidence regarding impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 4

Global models remain in fairly decent agreement in a frontal system passing through and impacting the area during the Sunday afternoon to Monday timeframe. While models disagree a bit on the exact path and eventual timing of the system, it appears that the most likely timing of the system would not appear to enhance the thunderstorm threat as it would serve to limit CAPE, but ample shear would be present nevertheless. PWATS could climb to over 2 inches, so trends in the flooding potential will need to be watched. Main point here is that rainfall is appearing to be likely, with Sunday night into early Monday being the most likely time of rainfall and any impacts. It's still too soon to have high confidence regarding potential severe weather and flooding impacts.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday Night: VFR. NW-N winds around 10kt or less.

Friday-Saturday: VFR. W-NW winds, giving way to afternoon seabreezes.

Sunday: VFR likely for much of the day. Increasing likelihood for showers and a chance of thunderstorms later in day and at night.

Monday: Chance of showers may produce sub-VFR conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Overall, the pressure gradient will not be too steep through the first half of this weekend. As such, conditions on the forecast waters are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Some portions of the waters could have wind gusts reach near 20 kt this afternoon and Friday afternoon.

SCA potential increases Sunday into Monday for mainly the forecast ocean zones as high pressure moves offshore and low pressure approaches from the west. Some non-ocean zones will have SCA potential for wind gusts as well.

Rip Currents: 1-2 ft SE onshore swell and S/SW wind wave this week, with weak seabreeze development will generally keep the rip risk low through Friday. One caveat, approach of new moon will increase the tidal range, and could increase rip risk to moderate particularly around the times of low tide each afternoon.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.