textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold weather advisories issued for late tonight into Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The unseasonably cold and frigid conditions continues through the remainder of the week. Cold weather advisories are in effect for much of the region late tonight into Friday morning. Additional cold weather headlines will likely be needed for late Friday night into Saturday morning.

2) A coastal storm develops and intensifies off the SE US Coast this weekend. It remains a bit too soon to determine impacts with any confidence at this point. Far eastern portions of the region continue to have a relatively higher chance at seeing some accumulating snowfall compared to the rest of the region, along with stronger wind gusts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms of minor coastal flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the 500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras. Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for any changes.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 20kt.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for some MVFR or lower conditions along with a chance of snow, mainly late night Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the terminals east of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night to 20-25 kt, then 30-35kt on Sunday. There is low confidence at this time on the magnitude of winds and snow.

Monday: VFR with NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Sub advisory conditions are expected through today and into much of tonight. Towards Friday morning small craft conditions with gusts to around 25 kt will become increasingly likely for the ocean waters. Marginal small craft gusts will become a possibility during the day Friday for far eastern LI Sound. Small craft conditions may linger into Friday night for the ocean waters, but confidence of this remains low at this time.

A potent storm develops off the SE coast later Saturday into Saturday night. The storm will then track well offshore later in the weekend for Sunday into Sunday night. This will likely bring a prolonged period of gales for the non-ocean waters, along with gale and potentially storm force conditions to the ocean later in the weekend with elevated seas. The storm system will pull away into Monday with conditions subsiding some, likely to small craft conditions during Monday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Friday for CTZ005>008. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Friday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ067>075-176>179. NJ...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355. Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.