textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

With visibility improving across Long Island, the Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire.

The marine dense fog advisory remains in effect until noon for the ocean waters and Great South Bay as the dense fog remains in place in these locations.

Increased high temperatures for today, mainly across the NYC metro area as hourly temperatures were higher than previously forecast. Highs in these locations will likely reach the middle to upper 70s, with an isolated 80 degree reading not out of the question.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably mild / warm air will be in place through Wednesday and most of Wednesday night. Noticeably cooler with sea breeze development for coastal and eastern portions of the area late today and this evening. Areas of low clouds / fog develop again during the evening and nighttime hours to the east for coastal sections for tonight and potentially for a portion of Wednesday evening.

2) A strong frontal system impacts the area Wednesday night into Thursday with the next chance for rain, likely changing to and ending as some wet snow later Thursday, followed by noticeably cooler and more seasonable air at the end the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A potent mid level shortwave approaches mid week. Enough ridging out ahead of the disturbance should keep the majority of our area dry through the day Wednesday with perhaps far NW sections seeing the chance of some showers, thus lowered PoPs down some from the NBM during the day Wednesday. The chances of rain increase into Wednesday evening / night with a gusty southerly flow ahead of the boundary. The cold front should pivot through Thursday morning, so after a mild Wednesday night, the winds switch quickly to the NW on Thursday with a cP air mass moving in. Rain is likely to switch over to wet snow showers on the back side of the front as the upper level flow becomes somewhat parallel to the frontal boundary as the front attempts to behave like a anafront. Boundary temps will be noticeably milder than aloft so any wet snowflakes will have difficulty sticking. Liquid precip amounts are likely to range around a quarter of an inch on average across the area, with slightly higher amounts across far NW sections. Temperatures during the day Thursday with gusty / blustery conditions will fall through the 40s and likely into the 30s before day's end. By Thursday night most places will fall below freezing. Temperatures will then settle right near the seasonal norms for Friday into Saturday.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. S winds G15-20kt late in the afternoon mainly for the NYC metros and KISP. LLWS also possible late in the afternoon E of the NYC metros.

Wednesday night: Showers likely especially NW of the NYC metros, with MVFR or lower cond possible at times. S winds 10-15G20kt, becoming SW late. LLWS expected.

Thursday: Chance of rain showers in the morning, then chance of rain or snow showers in the afternoon. MVFR or lower cond possible. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NW 15-20G25kt by late morning.

Thursday night: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt early in the evening.

Friday: Mainly VFR. S winds 15G25kt in the afternoon.

Friday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of rain or snow showers with MVFR or lower cond. Winds becoming SW-W 10-15G20-25kt. LLWS possible late at KGON/KISP.

Saturday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Dense fog for the eastern waters is expected through late morning, with another round of low clouds and fog expected tonight.

Otherwise, sub advisory conditions will prevail on the waters through the first half of Wednesday. A southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front during Wednesday afternoon as small craft conditions are expected to return to the ocean waters during the late afternoon, and for the remainder of the waters either late Wednesday night or by Thursday morning. Small craft conditions should persist across the waters on Thursday as the winds will be gusty out of the NW. Sub advisory conditions should return during Thursday night. Small craft conditions are expected to return to the waters by Friday afternoon on a S flow ahead of the next frontal system as small craft conditions could linger into Saturday morning.

CLIMATE

Below are record high temperatures for Tuesday March 10th.

EWR: 81/2016 BDR: 70/2006 NYC: 79/2016 LGA: 78/2016 JFK: 71/2006 ISP: 73/2016

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ345-350-353-355.