textproduct: New York

WHAT HAS CHANGED

1. Small Craft Advisories issued for today for NY Harbor and the Long Island South shore Bays, and extended for the ocean waters through this afternoon.

2. Raised temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday, with some record high temperatures possible on Wednesday, and some record high minimums possible each day.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry and mild with elevated fire weather concerns for portions of the area today, then cooler on Sunday.

2. Noticeably warmer next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A noticeable warmup is still on track for next week as overnight lows and daytime highs will be at least 10 degrees to as much as 20-25 degrees above normal inland, with the warmest days Wed/Thu. Upper ridging will be in place with nearly zonal flow Monday into Tuesday as a series of warm front pass through, with reinforcing ridging Wed/Thu. H8 temperatures on Wed should peak near 15C and may reach 17C-18C on Thu, with inland temperatures potentially reaching into the mid/upper 80s both days per blend of NBM 90th percentile and 00Z GFS/ECMWF MOS guidance. Inland areas will be the warmest as the low level flow remains southwest, while coastal areas will be cooler, but still well above normal levels, with a southerly sea breeze influenced flow.

A surface trough developing Tue/Wed afternoons, along with convergence with local sea breezes, may be the focus for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, though chance PoP is confined to inland sections attm. Cold fropa later this week may be delayed until Thu night per latest ECMWF.

Friday is expected to be cooler behind the cold front, but with highs still reaching 75-80 inland.

A few daily record highs mat be tied or broken on Wed, as well as record high minimum temperatures Tue through Thu.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Late Saturday night: VFR. NNW winds diminish to under 10kt.

Sunday: VFR. SE winds 10-20kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 20kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 10-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Issued SCA for NY Harbor and the Long Island south shore bays from 8 Am until 2 PM for near shore post-frontal winds gusting to 25 kt. Meanwhile, hazardous ocean seas of 5 ft should continue through the day today, so SCA has been extended there until 6 PM.

A strengthening S-SW flow could bring marginal SCA conditions (both wind gusts and seas) to the ocean waters Mon into Mon night, also possibly via gusts Mon afternoon to the south shore/eastern bays of Long Island and the non ocean waters E of Orient Point. Seas on the eastern ocean waters may not fall below 5 ft until early Tue morning.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.