textproduct: Nashville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Rain and storm chances become more widespread today and Thursday. The overall severe threat this week remains low.

- Localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will be possible with any storms this week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A wave of light to moderate rain continues to lift NE out of the southwestern part of the CWA. Weakening has been occuring over the last hour and this is expected to continue as it approaches the Nashville metro area. Still, the last couple of runs of the HRRR bring some light rain into the metro area around midnight. Other than that activity, the main story for the rest of the night will be some patchy fog in some spots.

The daylight hours on Wednesday will be somewhat similar to Tuesday. The main difference will be a little more upper level support as a weak trough moves across the area. This will increase the bulk shear compared to the last couple of days. Afternoon effective bulk shear values will be in the 20-25 kt range which could allow for a couple of more organized updrafts. These stronger updrafts could produce some strong winds. The atmosphere will again be very moist with PWAT values ranging from 1.8-2" which will produce some high rainfall rates. Due to the upper level trough, storms will be moving which should reduce the flash flood threat. Nevertheless, the high rain rates may cause some briefing localized ponding and full ditches.

The activity will once again decrease Wednesday night with the loss of diurnal heating and as the trough axis moves east of the area. More scattered storms will develop on Thursday with general troughing sticking around. Both the global and high res models are focusing on the eastern third for the higher storm chances on Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

As we go into the extended period, the pattern remains unsettled with mainly diurnal storm activity. Models do show a shortwave moving across the area on Friday which will keep PoPs in the high chance to likely range. As we move through the weekend, models show the upper high beginning to strengthen which may begin to suppress the diurnal storm coverage as we move into next week. Temperatures will be around normal to through the weekend with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures may increase by a couple of degrees early next week as the upper high strengthens.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Shower activity is diminishing across Middle TN. Patchy fog remains possible through 13z, especially at CKV, SRB, and CSV. Scattered thunderstorms are once again expected tomorrow with a focus during the 18Z-00Z timeframe. PROB30 groups have been included in the taf. Winds will favor a SW direction, generally remaining at or below 5 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Nashville 89 73 91 72 / 70 30 40 10 Clarksville 86 71 90 72 / 60 20 20 10 Crossville 85 65 84 66 / 80 40 60 20 Columbia 88 70 89 70 / 70 30 40 10 Cookeville 86 68 85 68 / 80 30 60 10 Jamestown 85 67 84 66 / 80 40 50 10 Lawrenceburg 88 69 88 70 / 70 30 40 10 Murfreesboro 90 70 91 70 / 70 30 40 10 Waverly 86 69 89 70 / 60 20 40 10

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.