textproduct: Nashville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- High chance for rain and thunderstorms through Wednesday evening with a low chance for strong to severe storms. Main threats are damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.

- Drier and cooler conditions return Thursday.

- Next chance of rain arrives Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A cold front is currently approaching the Mississippi River, and ahead of it, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across Middle TN. The front will slowly makes its way through the area tonight and into tomorrow, and as it does, thunderstorm coverage will increase. There is marginal instability that looks to develop along the cold front along with increasing shear which still supports a low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm overnight - primarily west of I-65. Main threat is strong winds, but locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

High rain and thunderstorm chances continue into tomorrow as the cold front continues to make its way through Middle TN. There does remain a low severe weather threat Wednesday, primarily for areas south of I-40. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the primary severe weather threat for the day still looks to be south of TN where models continue to build the highest instability and shear ahead of the front that should clear our area by mid-afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off west to east by late Wednesday night, and by the end of it, rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are still forecast. Over 2 inches of rain isn't out of the question, especially for southern Middle TN where probabilities of exceeding 2 inches by Thursday morning is about 40-60%. Hopefully this rain is good news for the ongoing drought.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Drier conditions return Thursday, and temperatures will be cooler behind the system. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s, but we will warm back up into the 70s and near 80 Friday and into the weekend. As far as our next chance of rain, that looks to arrive on Sunday as a trough and another cold front tracks through the Ohio Valley. Still a ways out to get into the details, but we'll definitely take the rain.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will impact all terminals during the TAF period, with MVFR/IFR cigs/vis in the forecast. Periods of LIFR cigs/vis have the highest chance around sunrise to late morning at all terminals. Tried to time latest guidance with highest chances for rain, but scattered showers expected for most of the period. VFR cigs look to return from NW to SE after 00Z, with KCKV getting to VFR first, followed by KBNA around 06Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Nashville 67 50 69 46 / 80 70 0 0 Clarksville 65 47 68 43 / 60 40 0 0 Crossville 68 49 64 41 / 100 90 10 0 Columbia 69 50 69 43 / 90 80 0 0 Cookeville 66 50 65 43 / 90 90 0 0 Jamestown 67 47 64 40 / 100 80 0 0 Lawrenceburg 69 49 68 43 / 100 80 0 0 Murfreesboro 69 51 69 44 / 90 80 0 0 Waverly 68 50 69 44 / 90 80 0 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.