textproduct: Nashville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Dry and warm Saturday.

- High shower and storm chances late Sunday through Monday. There is a low chance for strong storms with gusty winds.

- Seasonably warm and humid weather with on and off chances for showers and storms next week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A broad area of high pressure is set up over the region and that will bring another quiet day to Middle TN. A short wave passing to our south will bring more cloud cover to far southern areas with a very low shower chance, other areas will be mostly sunny. We should be well mixed out this afternoon mixing to 5000+ feet, this will lower our dew points into the mid to upper 50s for most areas. With the drier air mass we will see warm afternoon highs as they push into the mid 80s to near 90. Weak southerly flow develops overnight and that will start to push a more humid air mass in with dew points rising into the mid 60s to lower 70s by Sunday mid-morning. The humidity will keep things a bit warmer tonight compared to last night but all areas will drop into the 60s.

Our weather will become more unsettled Sunday and Monday as a short wave tracks out of the Northern Rockies and pushes into the Plains. This will bring warm air advection Sunday afternoon and evening as a warm front develops to our north. This will bring a low chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The better chances for thunderstorms will hold off until Sunday night through Monday with the cold front. CAPE will increase to 1000-2000 j/kg Sunday afternoon with bulk shear 20-30 knots. Lapse rates will be rather poor and we will lack forcing, this will keep the severe risk very low with anything Sunday afternoon and evening. Highs Sunday will be warm in the upper 80s to lower 90s and it will be humid with dew points back in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

As we head into Sunday night and Monday morning the short wave trough and surface low will be tracking into the OH Valley pushing a cold front east towards Middle TN. Convection will be ongoing along the front to our west and an MCS will likely develop over IL and push east through KY and IN. That does look to remain to our north. Scattered thunderstorms along the cold front look to make it to our northwest after 12-3 AM. A 30-40 knot 850 mb low level jet will develop Sunday night ahead of the front and that will increase our 0-3 km helicity to 150-250. CAPE will remain elevated and bulk shear will stay in the 20-30 knots range. Given the better forcing we will see a low chance for strong storms mainly over the northwest part of our area. Soundings show a CAP and low level instability will be low, that will keep the tornado threat very low despite the low level shear. Strong wind gusts and heavy rain will be the primary threats.

The cold front will continue to push south and east through the area on Monday. There is some uncertainty on how much CAPE we see build in on Monday but probability are high for at least 1000 j/kg. Lapse rates still don't look great but bulk shear will remain in the 20-30 knots range. This will bring a low chance for strong storms, wind gusts will be the primary threat but we do see a little more CAPE in the hail growth zone and marginal severe hail can't be ruled out. PWATs will remain very high near 2.0" in some areas and there is a high chance for heavy rain with thunderstorms. Widespread flooding is not expected but given the PWATs localized flooding will be possible. Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 80s but it will be very humid as dew points push well into the mid 70s.

The front will linger as a stationary boundary near the TN/AL boarder Tuesday and Wednesday and that will keep low rain chances in the forecast mainly for southern areas. Flow will become more zonal late in the week with some weak short waves embedded in. That will keep low rain chances in the forecast. Highs will remain in the low to mid 80s for much of the week with mid to upper 80s late in the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Fog is not expected at any of the terminals overnight but we could see some in the southwest part of our area. Light southerly winds under 5 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Nashville 67 90 74 85 / 0 30 70 100 Clarksville 66 89 73 84 / 0 30 60 90 Crossville 61 84 69 80 / 0 20 60 100 Columbia 66 89 73 85 / 0 40 70 100 Cookeville 63 86 71 81 / 0 30 70 100 Jamestown 60 86 69 81 / 0 20 60 100 Lawrenceburg 66 87 72 84 / 0 40 60 100 Murfreesboro 66 90 73 86 / 0 30 70 100 Waverly 67 88 73 82 / 0 30 80 90

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.