textproduct: Nashville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- There is a level 4 out of 5 risk for severe storms tonight for many of our western counties with a level 3 out of 5 for Nashville Metro and surrounding areas. Storms are expected to begin moving in from the west late this evening, spreading across the northwest half of Middle Tennessee through the late night hours. Damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, and torrential downpours will all be possible. Locations around and west of Linden, Waverly, Clarksville, and Dover are at greatest risk for strong, long track tornadoes late this evening.

- Major flooding may develop for northwest Middle Tennessee with torrential rainfall at times from this evening through Sunday morning. Stewart, Montgomery, and Houston Counties are at greatest risk with 10 inches of rainfall possible. Nashville Metro could have more than 6 inches of rain. Flash flooding and eventually river flooding will be concerns across the northwest half of Middle Tennessee where a Flood Watch is in place.

- There will be a continued risk for severe storms across the area Thursday through Saturday. The greatest risk will continue to be over the northwest half of Middle Tennessee with much lower storm chances over the southeast half. Damaging winds will be the main concern Thursday through Saturday, although tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

UPDATE

Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The evening sounding at OHX is well underway and we can share some data already up to 400 mb. SBCAPE is 1,776 J/kg and the LI is -9 (hence the large hail that's already occurred). The 0-3 km storm- relative helicity is 408 owing to a 40 kt wind at 925 mb and 50 kt wind at 850 mb, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is 7.2C/km. Precipitable Water is coming in at 1.56", which is a new record max for this date. So the environment we expected is definitely in place. A cold front is just now crossing the Mississippi River, and won't make it much further before becoming quasi-stationary by around 12Z tomorrow. The boundary likely won't actually come through Middle Tennessee until late Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The surface boundary that is creating all this mayhem tonight continues to creep toward Middle Tennessee, but will soon stall just to our northwest. Earlier discreet cells that produced large hail and some wind damage across mainly western portions of Middle Tennessee have either dissipated or moved out of the area, and we are now watching the next line of severe storms track across West Tennessee and toward the OHX warning area. Not much has changed from our earlier messaging. We expect the approaching storms to have their most significant impacts over western Middle Tennessee, then weaken somewhat as they advance toward the Nashville Metro Area. It is still conceivable that some portions of the mid state may not be impacted at all tonight, especially over southeastern portions of the mid state. As the severe threat overnight diminishes, we will begin to transition to more of a flooding threat. Granted, severe storms will still be possible until the aforementioned boundary loosens from its moors and finally sweeps through the mid state this weekend. But the primary impacts after tonight will be areal flooding, river flooding and also flash flooding in areas affected by high rainfall rates. Temperatures will remain quite warm the remainder of this week. (Today's high temperature of 85 degrees at Nashville was just 2 degrees shy of the daily record high.) The unusually warm air mass and moisture transport provided by strong low-level winds, coupled with the close proximity of the quasi- stationary boundary are fueling what is expected to be some large rainfall totals.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Blocking high pressure centered off the Carolina coast will finally relent this weekend and enable the stalled frontal boundary to come through Middle Tennessee late Saturday and Saturday night, with one more round of potentially severe storms and heavy rainfall before this active weather pattern draws to an end. By the time the rain finally winds down on Sunday, we are looking at storm total QPF of 2 to 3" along the Cumberland Plateau, to 5 to 7" across Nashville Metro, to 10+" around Land- between-the-Lakes. So we do expect significant rises along rivers and creeks across a large portion of the mid state. Fortunately, the weather next week will be much more benign, albeit significantly cooler. Of note, widespread frost is possible Tuesday morning, and many spots can expect freezing temperatures Wednesday morning before we start to warm back up.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Ongoing storms will be moving into BNA and MQY over the next hour or two, bringing MVFR vis/cigs with occasional IFR conditions with heavier rainfall. This activity is expected to dissipate considerably before reaching SRB and CSV. Behind the storms, CKV will maintain MVFR conditions overnight. A front will meander across northern Middle TN through tomorrow, making for a low confidence forecast, especially at CKV which will vary between both sides of the front. South of the front, ceilings will likely improve to VFR in the afternoon, but remain MVFR to the north. The front will also be a focus for additional TS in the afternoon, potentially impacting BNA and CKV.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Nashville 67 78 67 86 / 70 80 50 40 Clarksville 63 71 61 83 / 90 90 70 70 Crossville 65 80 64 83 / 20 30 20 20 Columbia 67 81 67 86 / 60 60 40 30 Cookeville 66 80 66 83 / 40 60 30 30 Jamestown 65 80 64 83 / 40 60 30 30 Lawrenceburg 69 81 69 85 / 40 40 30 20 Murfreesboro 67 82 66 86 / 50 60 40 20 Waverly 63 72 63 84 / 90 90 60 50

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.