textproduct: Nashville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Very hot and humid conditions with triple digit heat indices continue. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Sunday for most of Middle Tennessee.

- Low rain chances mainly east of I-65 this weekend with a low chance for strong storms with gusty winds. Higher rain chances spread areawide Monday and Tuesday.

- Cooler air arrives next week with highs mid to late week in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The record-breaking heatwave will continue through this weekend as a Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of our area. BNA reached 100 Friday, the 4th record high in a row. We have now had 5 days of 100+ temps this September. That is second place to September 1925 when there were 7 days of 100+ temps. Overall, we are still on track to have the warmest September on record. We have a 90 percent chance for record highs Saturday and a 60 percent chance for Sunday.

There are some signs of hope. The very strong ridge overhead was showing 6000 meter heights from our balloon launch yesterday, but is now down to 5950 meters. Now much, but more weakening is ahead, especially after we get through this hot weekend.

The gradual weakening of the ridge will allow increased potential for scattered showers and storms. That trend has already started over the Plateau, and on Saturday, low storm chances will spread west to I-65. A couple of the storms could be strong with gusty winds. Sadly, most of us will still not see any rain this weekend.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Monday will be hot, but hopefully not record-setting as the big ridge weakens further and additional atmospheric moisture increases the chance for scattered storms. Those rain and storm chances will creep up more for Tuesday into Wednesday as a trough develops to our north and pushes a frontal zone toward our area.

The troughing pattern will deepen mid to late week, pushing the front down through our area. This will drop temperatures significantly, although they will still be on the warm side or normal. The NBM remains optimistic about late week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Not remarkably cool for this time of year, but oh so much better than this heatwave! The cooler air will also be drier, so late week rain chances will be low. This is bad news for crunchy lawns as Tuesday's showers and storms may not amount to enough moisture to turn around the worsening drought.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Patchy fog possible overnight at CSV and SRB. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with generally light and variable winds. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon across the Cumberland Plateau so introduced PROB30 groups for CSV and SRB.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Nashville 99 75 98 74 / 10 0 10 0 Clarksville 99 73 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 91 67 89 65 / 40 10 20 10 Columbia 100 72 99 71 / 10 0 0 0 Cookeville 94 70 92 69 / 30 10 20 10 Jamestown 91 68 89 67 / 30 10 20 20 Lawrenceburg 98 71 97 71 / 20 0 10 10 Murfreesboro 100 73 99 71 / 20 0 10 10 Waverly 98 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ005>010-023>033- 056>065-075-077-078-093>095.