textproduct: Nashville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

- High chance for rain through this evening. Rainfall amounts will range generally from 0.25"-0.50".

- Highs in the 30s expected Wednesday & Thursday, but temperatures warm into the 50s Friday into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Very groggy evening across Middle Tennessee as light showers continue with areas of patchy dense fog. A Dense Fog Advisory will run through 9PM tonight to cover widespread fog along and north of I-40, but some lingering areas of fog will be possible into the overnight hours. Use caution tonight if travelling. The front currently stretches from northeast MS up through Nashville into portions of eastern KY. Temperatures have dropped around 10 degrees behind it with a slight increase in northerly winds with sustained speeds between 7-10 mph. The bulk of the precip will come to an end overnight, but wrap-around moisture will result in the potential for snow showers across the plateau early Wednesday afternoon. No accumulation or impacts are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Satellite imagery this morning shows a shortwave starting to make its way through the area. As this system continues to make its way through today, rain will become more widespread this afternoon. Little to no instability will be present today, limiting thunderstorm potential and keeping rain rates light to moderate. Expected rain totals are still around 0.25" to 0.50", but pockets of higher rain totals will favor areas east of I-65. Latest HREF probabilities of more than 0.50" are around 40-70% across the east with a 10-15% chance of getting up to an inch in the Grundy/Van Buren county area. Most rain will come to an end by midnight, but wrap-around moisture keeps low snow chances tonight through early Wednesday across the Plateau. No accumulation or impacts is expected with this.

A front moving through the area tonight will result in cooler temperatures for Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will only reach into the 30s with overnight lows in the teens to low-20s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1003 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

We are due for some good weather, and that's what is in store Thursday through the remainder of the forecast period. A large ridge sets up over the western CONUS Thursday into the weekend, and dry northwest flow will keep dry conditions with warming temperatures in the forecast. Outside from a front Saturday that gives a brief cooldown, temperatures into early next week will generally be in the 50s with even highs nearing 60 Tuesday. Fortunately, no impactful weather is in the forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Showers will end west to east through 06z with low cigs and vis lingering through Wednesday morning. Cigs will remain LIFR/IFR until around 18z at BNA/MQY/CKV while CSV/SRB are expected to remain IFR through the afternoon. Models are favoring dense fog developing prior to 06z at CSV and remaining through 12-15z. The dense for at CKV is expected to improve to IFR prior to 06z. The front has moved through CKV and will move through BNA/MQY around 03z shifting winds to the northwest. Frontal passage at CSV/SRB will be after 06z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Nashville 32 39 20 38 / 70 10 0 0 Clarksville 28 36 18 36 / 30 0 0 0 Crossville 33 40 16 36 / 90 20 0 0 Columbia 33 39 19 40 / 70 0 0 0 Cookeville 32 37 18 35 / 90 20 0 0 Jamestown 30 36 15 33 / 90 20 0 0 Lawrenceburg 33 39 19 39 / 80 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 33 39 19 38 / 80 10 0 0 Waverly 29 37 17 37 / 30 0 0 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TNZ005>011- 023>034.