textproduct: Nashville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 700 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

- Stubborn light rain/drizzle will dissipate over the next couple of hours.

- Most clouds will also dissipate and areas of dense fog are expected tonight into tomorrow morning. An advisory is now in effect from midnight until 10 am Monday morning. - Dry most of the week. Warming up a little.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

For most, the light rain has come to an end. In fact, some are already seeing stars. However, that's not the case for everyone as there's an axis of stubborn clouds on the backside of this upper low that continues to spit out light rain and drizzle. Satellite suggests these clouds only have an hour or two of life left as they are dissipating. As clouds disappear, we should start to see fog develop. There isn't a front with this system dragging a bunch of dry air in here, so dew point depressions will near zero pretty quick. Across the board, models are showing some pretty dense fog developing over the next couple of hours and becoming widespread by midnight. I think for these reasons, I'm going to go ahead and issue a Dense Fog Advisory. Interestingly enough, most of these models are also showing the fog sticking around deep into the morning, so I'm going to run with a midnight to 10 am advisory. Please use caution on area roadways tonight and during the Monday morning commute!

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1025 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Late Sunday morning, low pressure circulation was evident on satellite loops over southwest Middle Tennessee. This system was responsible for the wet, gloomy wx. The low pressure will drift southeast of our area by this evening, allowing rain to taper off, or at least decrease to patchy drizzle. Most areas west of the Plateau will get at least a few glimpses of sunshine this afternoon. Still, it will be chilly with temperatures warming to the mid 50s at best.

Surface high pressure will slide in overnight giving us a very favorable setup for fog. Persistent low clouds may preclude dense fog in some areas, but even partial clearing will result in rapid formation of dense fog with very poor visibilities this evening and overnight, and these impacts will continue through Monday morning rush hour. Conditions will be quite chilly overnight with lows mostly mid to upper 30s.

After low clouds and fog break up mid morning, Monday will turn out pretty decent but cool. Highs will be only in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This is around 5 degrees cooler than normal.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1025 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Dry wx will be in place Monday night through at least Thursday. Temperatures will start chilly, but a midweek warmup to slightly above normal levels will occur as steering winds become zonal.

We continue to look for a couple of late week / weekend fronts that will sweep across the area pretty quickly. Models have been inconsistent with the timing and strength of these features, so the forecast comes with very low confidence. The latest NBM blend shows the first front Friday into Saturday then the next for Sunday. These fronts look strong enough to produce a good chance for showers and some storms. Right now, moisture depth and instability appear to be lacking for any severe storm threat, but given the dynamics / wind energy with these fronts, that could change if things line up a little differently than current models show.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Western terminals will see clouds decrease during the evening with mainly clear skies overnight. Western terminals will see a low to medium chances for patchy dense fog between 09 and 13z with the better chance outside of the Nashville metro. Low clouds will build in over the Plateau as the evening goes on and IFR/LIFR cigs are expected after 06z. They will also see periods of dense fog between 06 and 15z. All terminals will see VFR conditions by 15z with clear skies by the afternoon. Light winds overnight increase up to 8 knots out of the west.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Nashville 38 63 39 69 / 20 0 0 0 Clarksville 35 62 37 69 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 38 56 34 63 / 20 0 0 0 Columbia 34 62 35 69 / 20 0 0 0 Cookeville 38 57 35 65 / 20 0 0 0 Jamestown 38 56 35 63 / 20 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 35 62 34 69 / 20 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 37 62 35 69 / 20 0 0 0 Waverly 34 60 37 67 / 20 0 0 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Monday for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.