textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A few lingering showers across northeast Nebraska this morning.

- Periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through next weekend. A marginal risk of severe storms (5-14%) exists for Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. The best chance of severe weather returns next weekend.

- High temperatures remain in the 70s and lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s through Friday. Highs warm into the 80s to low 90s next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Clouds continue to hang around this evening across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. We've watched the first round of showers move into northeast Nebraska and fall apart, and the second round shifted south and is falling apart as it moves across central Nebraska. Other than a few light showers still lingering in the area north, the rest of our area is quiet this evening. Looking at water vapor satellite imagery for the broader view, we see quasi-zonal flow with a couple of weak disturbances leading to convective development over eastern Colorado and western Kansas this evening.

Monday we start to see heights build out to our west with a trough digging south over the Ohio River Valley. We'll see the subtropical Jet shift northeast across our area, leading to enhanced northwesterly flow. Clouds breaking up through the day will help us warm up into the mid 70s by the afternoon with southerly/southeasterly low-level winds advecting moisture into the area keeping dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s through the afternoon.

Tuesday we see increased southerly flow ahead of a cold front stretching south from a low pressure system moving across Manitoba. Guidance varies on how much we destabilize Tuesday due to significant cloud cover across the area. This may limit severe potential but 50-55kt bulk shear over the region could lead to severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain if we can generate some CAPE.

More weak disturbances in the northwesterly flow will bring periodic chances for showers through the end of the week. These will also keep temperatures cooler with highs staying in the mid 70s. Going into the weekend we see a strong trough move into the PacNW help to push the ridge over the Rockies eastward. This will cause warming temperatures and increased moisture advection into our area through the weekend. Guidance also shows potential for some stronger storms early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Expect some brief MVFR ceilings at OFK this morning, though they should rise to VFR levels by mid-day. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere throughout the period, with some SCT clouds around 4000-6000 ft agl through the afternoon. Winds will be northeasterly to easterly to start, but gradually turn clockwise, settling in at southeasterly. Speeds will generally remain below 10 kts. Showers and a few storms may be approaching OFK very late in the period, but guidance currently holds off until after 12Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.