textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures continue through the week. The hottest days look to be Friday and Saturday with heat indices up to 100-105. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight, particularly for northeastern Nebraska. Gusty winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any storms that develop.

- Additional severe storms possible Thursday morning, Thursday evening, and Friday evening.

- Daily chances for showers and storms continue. Best chance of rain and storms waits for the evening of the 4th of July.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Today and Tonight...

Morning warm air advection gave a boost to showers and storms across northeast Nebraska, causing them to outperform model expectations. Showers and storms decreased in coverage as support from a passing shortwave shifts east this afternoon. Southerly flow along the backside of the ridge dominating the eastern CONUS will bring another day of heat to the region. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out in the upper 80s. Warm temps combined with humidity, enhanced by local corn sweat, will drive heat indicies towards 100. Thankfully, lingering cloud cover from the morning convection will at least bring some relief to the area, likely preventing us from reaching Heat Advisory criteria again this afternoon.

Another round of strong to severe storms looks to develop over northern Iowa this evening, potentially snaking back across northeast Nebraska. Plenty of instability will be available, although shear will be somewhat weak at only 20-30 kts throughout the layer. A few storms could be capable of producing large hail and strong winds through the evening and overnight hours, as highlighted by SPC's Marginal Risk across the northwestern half of the CWA.

Thursday...

Another round of storms, associated with a potential MCV moving out of Kansas, is expected to develop Thursday morning around 8-9 AM. While overall shear may be somewhat limited, enhancement from the MCV could lead to a few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.

Cloud cover associated with morning showers and storms will once again mitigate some of the heat effects Thursday afternoon. Highs will likely top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, with heat indices remaining at or below 100.

Thursday evening, additional severe storms could impact the area in 2 different ways. The first and more likely scenario, if you believe the latest CAMs, would be in the form of an MCS diving southeast out of South Dakota, through northeast Nebraska and into western Iowa. This could bring the potential for large hail, however damaging winds would likely be the main threat.

The other potential solution would be for a couple of strong, isolated supercells to develop prior to the MCS passage. Should these storms develop in the evening, when shear increases, they would be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.

Friday...

Storms are currently expected to clear the forecast area early Friday morning, making way for another round of intense heat to push in from the southwest. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low and mid 90s, however it will feel like 100-105 across much of the area, potentially necessitating another Heat headline.

An outflow boundary lingering over northeast Nebraska could become the focus for yet another round of strong to severe storms Friday evening into Friday night. However, this threat will be more dependent on how quickly morning storms move out and the recovery of the airmass in the region.

Saturday (4th of July)...

The heat stays on for the 4th, as highs remain in the low to mid 90s, with heat indicies touching the low 100s. So be sure to stock those coolers with plenty of water, in addition to other beverages.

A poorly timed shortwave looks to push into the region Saturday evening and overnight, as mother nature offers her own fireworks show. While it's too soon to really nail down the timing, so far the best chance for showers and storms (40-60%) looks to arrive between 7PM and 1 AM Saturday evening. While I wouldn't cancel fireworks plans just yet, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the forecast if you have holiday plans.

Sunday and Beyond...

Off and on storm chances look to continue through Sunday and into early next week. Unfortunately, the heat also isn't ending any time soon. Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the low 90s, with lows only falling to the upper 60s and low 70s overnight. Additionally, CPC outlooks continue to highlight much of the country leaning above normal for temperatures through mid-July.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the majority of the period. Winds are expected to become SSW this afternoon and increase, with occasional gusts up to 20kts possible. Storm chances will increase this evening and overnight. While uncertainty was still too great to include in the TAF at this time, the best chance for storms looks to be between 00-06Z this evening, with another round of storms possibly developing around 12Z Thursday morning. LLWS may increase overnight, as the low level jet picks up, but should stay just southeast of the TAF sites, according to the latest guidance.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.