textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy freezing fog is possible again tonight (30-50% chance) along a line west of Norfolk to Beatrice.

- A cooler Friday is forecast, with chances for a wintry mix and snow (20-40%) pushing into northeast Nebraska and east-central Nebraska during the afternoon and evening, before dissipating to the southeast overnight. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- Temperatures quickly rebound into the 40s and 50s this weekend with largely dry and warmer-than-average weather into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Today & Tonight

Low clouds and patchy fog held on throughout the morning hours and is finally beginning to erode from west to east this afternoon. With these clouds hanging on longer than anticipated, temperatures have remained much cooler than previous forecasts. Areas that have cleared out have climbed into the upper 30s and lower 40s, while areas under cloud cover remain largely below freezing. Temperatures may struggle to warm more than a handful of degrees through the remainder of this afternoon.

This evening and overnight, low clouds are expected to gradually redevelop and sink back southwest into the area. This is in association with a diffuse frontal zone. On the leading edge of this zone, freezing fog is likely to develop. Current guidance keeps the greatest chance for fog just to the west of the area, but there remains a chance (30-50%) for fog development to expand into our region. If this does occur, fog is expected to remain west of a line from Beatrice to Norfolk.

Friday

As any fog begins to erode, our next feature of note will enter the scene. A compact wave, currently off the coast of California, will quickly round the periphery of the ridge to our west, and move into the central Great Plains during the late morning and early afternoon. This disturbance will initiate weak cyclogenesis south of our area and help to support the development of light precipitation. The developing precipitation shield enters northeast Nebraska from the west and slowly continues southeast during the morning. With temperatures starting in the 20s across northeast Nebraska, snow is expected during this time. As weak warm advection and daytime heating commences, a transition to a wintry mix of precipitation appears likely later in the morning. Due to the limited depth and strength of the above-freezing layer, this wintry mix may be more sleet, graupel, melting snow over solely freezing rain. By afternoon, the precipitation shield swings into portions of east- central Nebraska. This precipitation should also be primarily a wintry mix of sleet, graupel, and melting snow.

As this fast moving system moves off towards the east, precipitation will wane Friday evening and begin dissipating across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. As this occurs, a transition back to mainly snow, especially with northern extent, is expected. This is due to the loss of daytime heating and wet-bulb temperatures remaining largely below freezing. Everything should move out of the area after midnight on Friday.

All in all, this fast system will have limited moisture to work with. The current expectation is for little to no accumulation to occur. Where light accumulations occur, mainly over portions of northeast Nebraska, a slushy to icy dusting of snow is anticipated. Other than a few slick spots on roads, travel impacts appear to be limited.

This Weekend and Beyond

Once Friday's system passes, quiet weather returns to the region. Temperatures should quickly rebound into the 40s and 50s through the weekend as weak upper-level ridging overspreads much of the Great Plains. This will have the added effect of keeping the area mostly dry. This same pattern starts next week and the next shot of any meaningful weather is later in the week. Our next disturbance should approach the region by Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A relatively complex TAF period is expected, with MVFR to IFR ceilings overspreading all terminals by 02/06Z. Fog is likely Friday morning across east-central Nebraska, with high confidence (around 80%) in IFR and brief LIFR conditions at KOFK and KLNK. Confidence in much lower in fog impacting KOMA (20% chance).

Improvement will be slow after 02/18-22Z, with only a brief window of VFR possible before a precipitation shield pushes in from the west, bringing another round of MVFR ceilings. Precipitation type remains uncertain, though light sleet/freezing or drizzle may precede a change to snow. The highest confidence for winter precipitation impacts is at KOFK, where a light glaze of ice and up to one-half inch of snow is possible (50% chance). Precipitation will clear from west to east just beyond the forecast period. Winds will remain light through the period, gradually veering from northeasterly to southeasterly.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.