textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect slick, snow-covered roads for the Tuesday morning commute in east-central Nebraska into southwest Iowa. Anticipate a narrow band of snow with totals in the 2-4" range with a few spots seeing 5-6", mainly in southwest Iowa (20-30% chance).

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and storm chances from Wednesday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The well-advertised precipitation band was underway as of 10 PM with low to mid level frontogenesis ramping up along with 700 mb warm air advection per latest SPC Mesoanalysis. So far, it was mainly rain and sleet falling with surface temperatures still hovering in the mid 30s to lower 40s and a little instability aloft, though we'll eventually see a transition to snow as we continue to cool off overnight, though if sleet continues, it may lead to slightly lower snowfall totals. Latest short-term guidance has trended toward lower snow accumulations, though earlier runs were quite high. Recent runs of the HRRR have even brought totals below 2", though just given the strength of the forcing and temperatures cooling off slightly faster, think that reduction may be a little extreme. So in the end, still expecting a band of 2-5" with perhaps a few localized spots hitting 5-6" (20-30% chance, mainly in southwest IA). Also still some questions on exactly where the heaviest band sets up, with guidance still wobbling by about a county or so. Overall consensus places the heaviest axis of 3-5" stretching from roughly Tekamah, NE, to Atlantic, IA, but it wouldn't take much of a a shift southward to put it right over the Omaha/Council Bluffs metro area (currently expecting around 2-3" there). Wind won't be overly strong as snow falls (10-15 mph) and snow will be heavy and wet, but HREF still suggests a 60-80% chance of 1" per hour rates in the middle of the band (2-5 AM), so visibility will still be quite poor at times. Bottom line, the morning commute could be slow and slippery, so make sure to give yourself extra time if you get snow.

Snow should taper off/exit by around 9-10 AM with southeasterly winds strengthening and gusting 20-25 mph, helping to usher in temperatures in the 40s and 50s for most, though areas that end up with snow may struggle to get out of the 30s. Short-term guidance also suggests we could see some spotty light showers during the day and possibly into the overnight with the ongoing warm air advection. Meanwhile, guidance remains in good agreement that a cutoff low will be moving along the Canadian border with a secondary area of low pressure sliding along the NE/SD border by early morning Wednesday. This will drag a cold front through the area, perhaps triggering some showers and storms. That said, guidance has trended toward storms not developing along it until later in the afternoon when it's nearly or completely out of our area. Therefore, trended precip chances downward a bit for Wednesday afternoon (20-40%).

However, said front looks to stall in our area or just south into KS/MO through about Saturday while various bits of shortwave energy slide through and decently strong moisture transport points into the front, giving us continued shower and storm chances into the weekend (40-80% chance). There will likely be some breaks in there, but still some details to be worked out on timing.

By Saturday, guidance is in good agreement of a larger scale trough moving onto the west coast with the surface boundary advancing northward as a warm front. As such, shower and storm chances will continue with warm air and moisture advection favoring an increasingly unstable air mass and perhaps leading to a few stronger or even severe storms at times. Machine learning guidance continues to suggest a 5-15% chance of severe storms for at least Saturday into early next week, though obviously still lots of details to be worked out before then.

Otherwise, temperatures will be a bit of a roller coaster, though still seasonable, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s Wednesday ahead of the front, 50s and 60s behind the front Thursday and Friday, then back into the 60s and 70s for the weekend. That said, these will be influenced by precipitation on a given day.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Rain/sleet has already begun to switch over to snow at KOMA. Expect deteriorating conditions through the overnight hours, with periods of IFR ceilings and visibilities down to LIFR in the heaviest snowfall. Totals are expected to be around T-1" at OFK and 2-3" at OMA, but it would not take much of a shift of the heaviest band to see 4+ at OMA. As snow is falling, expect winds to be out of the east to northeast around 10-12 kts. Once snow ends around 12-14Z, winds will become southeasterly, gusting 20-25 kts through the remainder of the period. Some guidance hints at lingering fog/drizzle following the snow, but confidence in that occurring remains low. If it does, could see lingering visibility of 3-5SM. Conditions should improve to MVFR at KOMA and KOFK by 00Z this evening, with VFR returning to KLNK around 20Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ033-034-044-045-051>053. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ055-056-069-079-080.