textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for scattered showers and storms this afternoon and into the evening hours (40-60%). Storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Warm temperatures expected today with highs in the low to mid 90s.

- Periodic strong to severe storm chances continue for Saturday through Monday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The H5 pattern on Sunday will feature an amplifying longwave trof over the western CONUS. Several shortwaves are seen ejecting from the feature from eastern Colorado toward the Central and Northern Plains areas. Sfc cyclogenesis ensues with the low progged to track through the area. The H8 baroclinic zone should swing northward through the area, allowing ample south/southwesterly flow to point into the area for much of the day and evening. Expect to see a strong 45 to 60 kt LLJ overspread the area behind the front, along with instability of 3,000 to 4,000 j/kg. Forecast soundings appear to show capping eroding in the afternoon, and when combined with the strong bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts, should see severe convection develop over the area with all hazards on the table. In addition, some urban flash flood potential does exist. Should see areas have efficient rainfall processes with warm cloud depths approaching the 3,500 to 4,000 meter mark.

For Monday, should see a similar threat as the H5 longwave is progged to track farther east into the Plains. Similar to Sunday, should see similar values of instability along with strong deep layer shear of 55 to 60 kts yielding a threat for severe convection. For this update, the threat remains shifted slightly to the east.

Generally quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the extended with cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are set to prevail through the at least the first half of the TAF period, with a wind shift draped across the local area, making overnight winds variable in direction at times, but less than 10 kts. Winds out of the south-southeast will become increasingly widespread towards the late morning/early afternoon. Shower and storm chances are set to develop in the area late afternoon/early evening Friday, with those storms developing along a wind shift line that will be near the KOMA/KLNK at 22z, with a 2 hour window or less being likely for thunderstorms at those sites. The most likely time has been placed in the TAF, and could shift an hour or two based on the short-term trends leading up to that point.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.