textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog along the Missouri River Valley into southwest Iowa late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Dry conditions for most of this week, low 20-30% chance of showers for northeast Nebraska/western Iowa Thursday night- Friday.

- Windy conditions return for Saturday and may lead to fire weather concerns in northeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Clear skies and nearly calm winds overnight tonight. A surface boundary moving through bringing in cooler air coupled with good radiational cooling will help generate some fog mainly along the Missouri River Valley and southwest Iowa. Elsewhere should remain mostly clear. Any fog should burn off fairly soon after sunrise.

Looking at the upper-level pattern we have broad ridging over the West Coast and troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Through the week we see ridging gradually creep eastward, mostly toward the end of the week with a couple of mid-level disturbances moving through Thursday and Friday.

Lower down we see high pressure building over the Great Plains today with a Canadian air mass bringing temperatures down across the region. Highs today will be several degrees cooler for much of the area than yesterday, only in the upper 70s to low 80s (far south). This cooling trend continues into Thursday with increasing northwesterly flow aloft as the ridge starts to shift eastward. Highs on Thursday only get into the low-to-mid 70s.

A weak disturbance best seen at h850 move through Thursday night with increased WAA across our area. This brings in additional moisture allowing for a few showers and storms to develop through the evening and overnight hours Thursday night-early Friday. These will mainly be confined to the nose of the LLJ along the Missouri river in NE Nebraska into western Iowa. Despite the forcing, the development of these showers and storms will greatly depend on how much moisture we can advect in. While deterministic guidance and ensembles show potential for these showers/storms, model soundings are still dry especially in the lower levels. It could end up being a scenario for more virga with only a few sprinkles/brief light showers.

Going into the weekend we see a rapidly deepening trough along the West Coast amplifying a jet streak over the four-corners region. As this occurs we see a broad region of southwesterly flow develop over the Rockies into the Great Plains. This combined with a substantial low pressure system moving across Central Canada will lead to the development of a strong 850-mb jet across the Northern and Central Plains. These strong southwesterly winds will mix down to the surface during the day on Saturday leading to potential for 30-40 mph winds through the afternoon. This could potentially lead to fire weather concerns as agricultural fields have dried out, especially across central and northeast Nebraska which didn't see as much rain over the last week.

Confidence greatly decreases in the upper-level pattern forecast Sunday into next week as we likely see a very baroclinic, active pattern set up across the CONUS. Ensemble guidance support the return of rain chances starting Monday or Tuesday next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 514 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Patchy fog has developed this morning, generally in river valleys and low-lying areas. Transient pocket of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected, with the highest probability of impacts at KOMA (30% chance). Fog will improve after sunrise, with VFR conditions favored through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will remain light and out of the north with upper-level cloud cover increasing through the period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.