textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow develops Thursday morning and continues into Thursday night. Travel impacts are likely (>80%), with much of the area covered by a Winter Weather Advisory.

- Highest accumulations of up to 5-6+" are forecast along a line from Columbus to Blair, with a narrow Winter Storm Warning covering these areas into Iowa.

- Strong winds gusting to 30-35 mph during snowfall will combine with high snow rates to make for whiteout conditions.

- Dry weather settles in Friday onward, with warmer temperatures moving in Sunday to Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Tonight and Thursday:

A broad and messy pattern is evident in water vapor imagery this evening, with a dynamic and broad trough over most of the CONUS. The feature thatwe're most interested in is powering a leaf of ascent across the High Plains into MT/WY and western Nebraska, with a surface low already taking shape over northeast Colorado. This system will be the sole focus of the short-term forecast, and it will bring a narrow stripe of highly impactful snow over the course of the day tomorrow.

As the system takes shape, the surface low will maintain impressive depth, saunter across northern Kansas before deepening as it pivots and ejects from northwestern Missouri towards Wisconsin. While it passes by, strong height falls, warm air advection, elevated instability, and frontogenesis will wrap along it's northern periphery and drive a narrow but potent line of snow that will span 2-3 counties tall for the heaviest portions. Since we've been very dry over the last couple of days, the keys to the snow band will lie with where the most abundant lift tracks, and its residence time over those areas. As of now, the strongest will track generally from west-to-east, helping saturate the dry lower levels over time. As of now, the latest data shows this overlap of residence time and strong forcing extending from Albion to Blair, then to Underwood Iowa.

Getting into timing, uncertainty, amounts and other complications, the elephant in the room that needs to be addressed is to nailing down the location. With such a narrow band of higher forecasted amounts, you won't have to travel very far north or south before running out of snow quickly. Shifts in the location of the band so far have been driven by the speed of the main system and when it decides to eject to the northeast. Any shifts in the the model data will mean stark changes for the forecasted snow for any one location. The model data has shown that there is major boom-or-bust potential, meaning that if this system seizes its full potential, areas in the heart of the strip of snow could see 6-8" or even higher. Lower ends of the spectrum have the heart seeing 3-5", with some breaks in between the highest amounts. Looking at timing for the arrival of snow, things have shifted later, with northeast Nebraska seeing mid-to-late morning start times, while areas of eastern Nebraska including the Omaha/CB and Lincoln Metros see a start closer to 2-4 PM. With things settling in before noon to just head of the evening commute, those impacts will be felt at a larger scale. Combine that with wind gusts of 30-35 mph, we've expanded the Winter Weather Advisory and threaded in a narrow Winter Storm Warning for the most-impacted areas. by 9 PM, things begin quickly tapering off with most of any snow exiting to the east by midnight.

Friday and Beyond:

Behind our narrow but potentially mighty snow-maker, cold air is expected to funnel in for Friday morning when apparent temperatures fall to around 0 degrees. High temperatures Friday into the weekend will be highly modulated by the amount of snow on the ground, with areas covered in any white stuff likely staying in the lower twenties at best, while the February sun warms north and south of it to near normal temperatures.

Sunday onward, we'll continue dry weather as the eastern edge of a ridge pushes into the forecast area and lets us in on some of the warmer air initially locked to our south.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Snow will be moving into northeast Nebraska later this morning, reaching KOFK around 16Z. Snow showers appear likely to develop right over KLNK and KOMA closer to 19-22Z this afternoon. Expect cigs to fall to around 1500ft at KOMA and 2000-2500ft at KLNK with the development of these showers. Visibility will drop to 2SM or less, occasionally dropping down to 1/2SM. Winds will be gusting out of the north to 30kt through the afternoon, contributing to the reduction in visibility. We'll see snowfall rates start to decrease after 00Z, with improving cigs and visibility, but light snow and blowing snow will still continue to impact the terminals until at least 06Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ015-033-034-065>067. Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ043>045-050>053. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ016>018-031-032. Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ030-042. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ043-056-079-080. Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ055-069.