textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon and evening (60-80% chance). A few strong to severe storms will be possible, with hail and wind the primary hazards.

- Thunderstorm chances return Sunday afternoon into early Monday. Strong to severe storms capable of all severe weather hazards will be possible, especially in southeast Nebraska.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected next week with on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Today and Tonight...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis late this morning reveals a closed mid- to upper-level low over Saskatchewan, bringing increasing southwesterly flow to the area. The area remains bisected by a cold front this afternoon, with highs reaching the low 70s ahead of the front. Behind the front, increasing cloud cover and showers will keep highs confined to the mid 50s to mid 60s.

A few strong to severe storms remain possible later this afternoon into the early evening along the front, primarily for areas along and south of Interstate-80. In this area, dew points will pull into the low to mid 50s with modest elevated instability (MUCAPE of 600- 1000 J/kg) and bulk shear. While model soundings reveal a lot to be desired in terms of low-level moisture, ingredients remain sufficient for the potential of a few elevated supercells/clusters (PoPs 60-80%). Any stronger storms will be capable of hail (up to 1- 1.25") and strong wind gusts (up to 60 mph). Storms will push eastward through the evening, with the severe potential dwindling quick after 9 PM. A few spotty showers remain possible through the overnight hours (PoPs 30%).

Sunday and Monday...

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the remainder of the weekend as a shortwave pivots around the aforementioned Saskatchewan low, transitioning it to a positively tilted trough ejecting into the central Plains. At the surface, cyclogenesis is expected to occur over eastern Colorado before tracking eastward across Kansas and eventually northeastward across the mid-MO valley by early Monday. An attendant surface front will lift northward through the area on Sunday as warm air and moisture advection draws into the area. Afternoon high temperatures will peak in the upper 60s to low 70s, with dewpoints increasing to the low 60s.

Thunderstorm chances appear to move through the area in two separate rounds. The initial round is expected Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours as mid-level height falls overspread the modestly unstable airmass. Storm mode with this initial round appears to be multicell clusters with am embedded supercell or two possible, though CAM guidance continues to show discrepancies in the amount of storm coverage with this initial round. Severe weather potential with this round will remain primarily a hail and wind threat under any stronger updrafts. While model hodographs do bring some favorable low- level curvature, storms will likely remain elevated during this period, somewhat limiting tornado potential.

The second round of thunderstorms comes late Sunday evening into the overnight period as the aforementioned surface low pulls into northeast KS/southeast NE, dragging the warm sector up into the area. Model soundings show improvement in low-level moisture in this region along with hodographs favorable for supercell and potentially even a tornado a two within the warm sector as it pulls across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. For areas north of the warm front, generally north of I-80, elevated supercells capable of wind and hail remain the primary hazards. Pops remain in the 90-100% overnight across the entire forecast area.

Another concern to monitor will be the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, particularly in far southeast NE and southwest IA where training storms are favorable through the overnight period. PWAT values are expected to reach 1.20-1.50 inches, above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for late April. Precipitation totals through the weekend will be variable across the area depending on where the heaviest showers develop. Most areas are expected to see 0.75-1.25", with heavier pockets (2-3"+) expected.

Precipitation will gradually clear from west to east through late Monday morning and afternoon, with cloud cover slow to clear behind the departing precipitation shield. High temperatures are expected to peak in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Gusty winds will move in Monday afternoon on the back side of the departing system, with northwesterly gusts expected in the 20-30 mph range.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The aforementioned Canadian trough is expected to pull eastward through the remainder of the work week, leaving us generally in zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. A series of shortwave disturbances pivoting around the trough will bring periodic precipitation chance through the week (PoPs 20-40%) and keep high temperatures in the 60s, near seasonal norms. Overnight lows are expected in the upper 30s to low 40s. No day currently stands out for severe weather potential through the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Generally VFR conditions prevail early this afternoon, with patchy MVFR conditions present towards east-central Nebraska where rain showers are moving in. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will push eastward into the terminals through the afternoon and early evening. Confidence is high (75% chance) that each terminal will see precipitation this afternoon and early evening, with some refinements likely needed on the exact timing. Patchy MVFR conditions will be possible under any heavier showers.

Precipitation chances dwindle after 26/00-02Z, with a few spotty showers possible overnight (30% chance). MVFR to IFR ceilings will push into KOFK after 26/00Z, confidence is low that these conditions will reach KLNK or KOMA. Winds will remain variable through the period, beginning out of the southeast before transitioning to northeasterly behind a front and eventually back to southeasterly. Winds will generally remain under 12 kts, with a few gusts in the 12-18 kt range this afternoon. Additionally precipitation chances move in just after the TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.