textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Light, wintry precipitation will continue along the Nebraska/South Dakota border into west-central Iowa into early this evening. A few slick spots may linger.

- Another round of light snow is likely near and north of Interstate 80 Friday night and Saturday (60-90% chance). The highest potential for slick, snow-covered roads will be in northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa (40-60% chance).

- Temperatures turn much colder Friday through Sunday morning before warming again by early next week. Saturday night will be the coldest night, with lows in the single digits above and below 0 and wind chills approaching 20 below in some spots.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Some light wintry precip associated with some low to mid-level frontogenesis was lingering along the NE/SD border into west- central IA early this afternoon. Webcams in the area showed a few patches of snow on the roads, but a vast majority were clear, and DOT websites reported the same in our forecast area. Otherwise, there was a pretty large temperature gradient across the area, with mid 20s in west-central IA and mid 40s toward the Jefferson county area as of 3 PM (just on the warm side of a stationary front).

Heading into tonight, we'll see some weak cyclogenesis over the area with the aforementioned front pushing to our south and colder air continuing to spill in with northerly flow. This will lead to highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s area-wide followed by lows in the single digits and teens Friday night/Saturday morning.

Attention then turns to snow chances late Friday evening into Saturday. Another system similar to that of today will slide through our northwesterly flow aloft with guidance in good agreement of strong frontogenesis setting up northwest to southeast somewhere in the SD/NE/IA border area and leading to edging into northeast NE by midnight Friday night. Still some smaller scale differences in guidance regarding the exact placement of this band and with a sharp gradient expected on the southwest edge, even a slight shift (e.g. the width of a county) in storm track could mean the difference between slippery, snow-covered roads and no snow at all. Consensus currently has the 50/50 line for at least 1" roughly through Fremont to Omaha to Red Oak and extended northwest/southeast from those points. Consensus also suggests totals in the center of the band should be around 3-4", though it's worth noting that several pieces of guidance hint at a frontogenesis/frontolysis "couplet" along with some co-located slantwise instability that could lead to enhanced banding and increased totals in the center. For now, it seems like this would most likely be just northeast of our forecast area, especially given latest short term guidance is trending slightly farther north, but again, it won't take much of a track change to bring it back to our area. Finally, given the colder air, snow will be a little fluffier than other recent snowfall, though with wind gusts of "only" 15-20 mph, blowing and drifting snow doesn't look to be a major impact.

This snow should be mostly out of our area by late Saturday afternoon with surface high pressure building in Saturday night. With resulting clearing skies and light winds, temperatures look to tank into the single digits above and below 0 by early Sunday morning, with perhaps a few places even getting into the 10 to 15 below zero range. Again, winds will be light, but with those colder temperatures, any small puff of wind could lead to wind chills occasionally nearing -20 (most likely in far northeast NE into west- central IA).

The surface high will push to our east by Sunday afternoon with southerly flow returning and (deamplifying) upper level ridging edging in to help warm things up for the start of next week. While highs on Sunday will still be in the teens and mid 20s, Monday will be about 20 degrees warmer in most locations, followed by widespread 40s to lower 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Currently, guidance favors us staying dry through mid-week under zonal flow aloft. There are hints of another system approaching by Wednesday evening or Thursday, though still lots of model spread, so forecast confidence that far out low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions start out the TAF period with ceilings set to lower over the course of the overnight hours, bringing in cloud heights between FL020 to FL030 at all three sites while KOFK (and briefly KOMA) see bouts between FL010 and FL020. Winds will also swing northwesterly overnight, with gust potential to 20 kts through much of tomorrow before quieting down after 00z. By the end, ceilings are forecast to lift VFR conditions should hold.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.