textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered snow showers tonight into Tuesday morning (15-25% chance). Snow could mix with freezing drizzle at times. Snow amounts of a trace up to a few tenths of an inch with little to no ice accumulation. Minor to no travel impact expected.

- Another round of light wintry precipitation is possible (15-30% chance) Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly in the western half of our area. Little to no travel impact expected.

- Near-seasonal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday warming into the 50s Thursday, and 40s and 50s Friday through Sunday. These warmer temperatures could allow river ice to break up and move, increasing the risk of ice jams.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Tonight and Tuesday:

A shortwave trough located over the Dakotas as of midday will progress southeast through the area tonight into Tuesday morning, in tandem with a weak surface front. Latest model guidance remains consistent in depicting widely scattered, light precipitation (15-25% PoPs) spreading southeast across the area after about 8 PM. We continue to see a similar signal in model soundings, which show columnar saturation oscillating in and out of the thermal layer supportive of ice introduction. So, while explicit model precipitation-type fields indicate predominately light snow, the forecast sounding data suggest the potential for some light freezing drizzle to periodically mix in. Where precipitation occurs, minor snow accumulations from a trace up to a few tenths of an inch appear possible. Any ice accumulation currently appears negligible. Winds will remain light, which will limit the potential for blowing snow. Given these considerations, only minor --and somewhat localized-- travel impacts (i.e., slippery roads and/or brief visibility reductions) are expected.

Patchy light snow or flurries could linger through Tuesday morning with afternoon highs in the 30s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday:

Another mid-level disturbance is forecast to glance the region this period with latest model trends shifting the bulk of the associated QPF to the west of our area. This forecast update will continue to indicate 15-30% PoPs across the western half of our area with seemingly the best chances occurring Wednesday morning in northeast NE. The thermodynamic setup is similar to the one tonight, where sufficiently deep saturation for ice introduction remains in question. So, some freezing drizzle could mix with any light-snow occurrence. Minimal snow/ice accumulations should limit the potential for travel impacts.

Highs on Wednesday are expected to be mainly in the 30s.

Thursday through Sunday:

The 12z global models indicate amplified ridging aloft over the western U.S. Thursday morning transitioning to a high-over-low configuration while edging toward the central U.S. this weekend. That solution places the northern and central Plains in the ridge part of the upper-air pattern, which will translate to a warming trend. Thursday currently appears to be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 50s. Readings in the 40s and 50s are forecast Friday through Sunday.

As we have been alluding to the past couple of days, the warming temperatures will increase the odds of ice break up on area rivers, potentially leading to jams. So, we will be monitoring that process closely this week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1112 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A weather disturbance over the Dakotas this morning will move through the area tonight into Tuesday morning, supporting widely scattered, light, winter precipitation and MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings. VFR conditions will prevail today with the onset of MVFR ceilings expected in the 03/07-03/11z time frame. A period of IFR ceilings is most probable at KOFK Tuesday morning. Given the expected spotty nature of the light precipitation, confidence in occurrence at the terminal locations is too low to include in the forecast. Light southeast winds today switch to north tonight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.