textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme fire danger Saturday with south-southwest winds gusting 35 to 50 mph and RH falling into the teens and possibly single digits. High to very high fire danger will persist on Sunday.

- 60s return Saturday, followed by 70s and 80s Sunday into Monday. Cooler thereafter with 50s and 60s into next weekend.

- Light rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday (20-40%) with more widespread precipitation now favored to hold off until Friday or Saturday (40-60% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Pretty quiet across the region late this evening as surface high pressure was building in and leading to clear skies and light winds. This will set up for a cool night with lows in the lower to mid 20s for most and perhaps a few teens as you go farther east into IA.

The cooler weather and light winds will be short-lived, as the high pushes southeast of the area by early Saturday morning with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of surface low pressure east of the Rockies leading to quickly strengthening southerly flow for Saturday. This will usher in warmer air with temperatures topping out in the 60s to around 70 on Saturday. It will also remain quite dry with RH falling into the lower teens and perhaps a few single digits. Model soundings show 30-40 kts throughout the mixed layer during the day with EPS and HREF guidance suggesting mean gusts in the 35-45 mph range. A few spots in at least northeast NE could even touch 50 mph at times, especially in the morning as mixing starts and before the low level jet weakens. As a result, we'll have widespread extreme fire danger and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire area from 9 AM through 10 PM.

Winds will decrease significantly overnight into Sunday as the surface low edges eastward and the pressure gradient relaxes. However, the continued southerly flow (some gusts around 20 mph) will warm us even further, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. With RH falling into the 20s for most of the area, we could have another day of high to very high fire danger, but not looking like a Red Flag day. Monday will be even warmer as temperatures top out in the mid to upper 80s with a few spots possibly making a run at 90 (some record highs may be tied/broken). A few pieces of guidance hint at some light QPF Monday as some weak shortwave energy slides through. However, looking at model soundings, the low levels remain extremely dry with cloud bases around 10,000 ft, so it would be tough for anything to reach the ground. That said there is a little elevated instability, so can't completely rule out an isolated shower/storm (10% chance).

The main story Tuesday will be a cold frontal passage, though there remains quite a bit of spread in guidance regarding timing, which will significantly impact temperatures during the day. The overall trend has been toward a faster passage, meaning only far southeast NE has a shot at reaching 70 degrees before temperatures start falling through the day. The 60 degree line is currently progged to run along a Lincoln to Omaha line, with areas to the northwest likely only topping out in the 50s very early in the day. Guidance continues to suggest potential for some rain along and behind the front Tuesday, though consensus would favor it being pretty light and spotty (20-40% chance of a few hundredths). In addition, it does look fairly breezy behind the front (30+ mph), which may yield some fire weather concerns, but it will depend on precip and timing, as the earlier passage would suggest strongest winds will occur in the morning while RH is higher.

The remainder of the week still looks to bring a pattern shift with larger scale upper level troughing building in over the western CONUS leaving us under southwesterly flow aloft instead of northwesterly/ridging. We may get a few bits of weak shortwave energy to slide through Wednesday/Thursday and give us some light precip (20-40% chance), but guidance has trended toward drier conditions for those days, and instead hold off on the more widespread precip chances as the larger scale trough starts to push in Friday/Saturday. There remains a lot of spread on track and timing, and therefore, precip amounts, but chances still peak in the 40-60% range late next week/next weekend. While it should be mostly rain, depending on timing and track, we could see some snow mix in.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions are observed at all terminals this morning and will persist for the duration of the TAF cycle. A band of broken to overcast ceilings at 9,000 to 11,000 feet will continue pushing east before dissipating later this afternoon. Light south-southeast winds will become south southwesterly late this morning and gusty at 30 to 35 kts. The gusty winds persist into the afternoon, but subside a little by 00z to 20 to 25 kts. The winds taper off slowly after 03z. A period of low level wind shear will overspread terminals after 03z and persist through the rest of the TAF cycle.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.......Monday, March 30th..........

...... FORECAST..... OLD RECORD

Lincoln, NE.. 88F .... 88 in 1917 Omaha, NE.... 87F .... 89 in 1968 Tekamah, NE . 86F .... 81 in 2015 Falls City .. 88F .... 90 in 1986 Norfolk, NE . 86F .... 87 in 1968 Valley, NE... 86F .... 78 in 2012

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.