textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- 30 to 45% chance for light rain today west of a line from West Point to Lincoln, and lower chances (15 to 20%) east. Highs reach the mid 50s to low 60s with gusty 20 to 25 mph northwest winds.

- Lingering sprinkles/flurries early Wednesday across our far western areas. Gusty winds subside by the late afternoon with cooler temperatures (30s to low 40s).

- 15 to 35% chance for snow in northeast Nebraska into west- central Iowa late Thursday into Friday. Strong northwest winds gusting to 45 mph expected Thursday and Friday which could lead to travel impacts (10 to 40% chance) from snow showers.

LONG TERM

/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Northwesterly flow at H5 continues for Thursday and Friday as another series of waves approach the area from Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A weak H8 baroclinic zone will lift through our area Thursday, helping warm temperatures to the upper 30s to low 50s in our far west. This warm up is short lived as a front associated with the first wave and resultant sfc low sneaks through Thursday afternoon. At this time, the bulk of the Q-vector convergence and resultant lift is seen to our north and east. Latest NBM guidance has shifted 15% and greater PoPs north and east of area for Thursday where the bulk of QPF is seen.

As the front moves through, the secondary wave over the Dakotas is progged to deepen, helping strengthen the existing sfc low. Similar to today, the sfc low is forecast to stay well to our northeast over the Great Lakes area, but the strengthening pressure gradient, approaching H8 jet max and steepening lapse rates from resultant CAA should lead to strong wind gusts, particularly from Thursday evening into much of Friday. Latest deterministic NBM has widespread 35 mph gusts over our CWA and a few isolated 45 mph gusts in far northeast Nebraska. Latest ensemble guidance, particularly the EPS, shows higher probabilities (40 to 85% chance) for wind gusts greater than 45 mph for much of eastern Nebraska. GEFS and EPS mean wind gusts range from 45 to just below 55 mph over northeast Nebraska.

The other concern from this feature is the snow chances. Latest NBM has shifted PoPs more to the north and slightly decreased chances (15 to 35% chance), while the greatest chances remain in far northeast Nebraska into west central Iowa. Deterministic solutions from the global models show the main precip threat originating from the backside of the strong sfc low. The LREF continues to suggest the best threat for precipitation in our far northern and eastern areas with around a 50 to 80% for a tenth of an inch or greater for snow. Probabilities significantly taper off for higher snow amounts, with a 10 to 30% chance for at least 0.5 inches of snow in our far north and east. For what it's worth, latest GFS forecast soundings seem to suggest more of a convective snow shower nature to the precip.

Regardless of snowfall amounts, any snow showers that develop will lead to poor visibilities and areas of blowing snow, impacting travel. The latest probabilistic WSSI-P shows at least a 10 to 40 percent chance for minor travel impacts over our far north. Those with travel plans late Thursday into Friday will want to pay attention to the forecast and stay tuned for the latest updates.

Lingering snow showers taper off by Saturday with dry conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Highs cool Friday to the 30s behind the front, and to the mid 20s to low 30s Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures rebound Monday to the 30s to 40F.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail into this evening with a 40-60% chance of periodic MVFR ceilings (FL020-030) developing after about 14/03z-14/04z. Uncertainty in specific timing and duration of any MVFR ceiling occurrence precludes inclusion into this forecast update. Isolated to widely scattered showers are also possible (15-30% chance) at the terminal locations this afternoon into tonight. The same uncertainties described for the ceiling restrictions also apply to the precipitation chances. Northwest winds should continue to strengthen this afternoon with sustained speeds of 12-16 kt and gusts up to 24-27 kt continuing overnight into Wednesday morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.