textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.

- Strong to severe storms and heavy rain are possible Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding will be the main concerns.

- Cooler temperatures settle in Sunday into early next week, with highs mainly in the 70s and periodic chances for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Today and Tonight...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict broad troughing over the northeastern CONUS, leaving much of the area under zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave disturbance rounding the base of the trough is forcing a sagging cold front across the area today. The front is rather weak and will have little impacts on temperatures, with highs still expected in the low to mid 80s. However, it has provided enough convergence for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the boundary as it sags southward across the area this afternoon and evening. PoPs currently peak at 20-50%. Across much of the area, both moisture and instability will remain limited, with MUCAPE generally less than 250 J/kg. This should limit severe weather potential, though there will be enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder. A better corridor or modest instability, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, is expected to pull into south- central Nebraska later this afternoon. This could support an isolated stronger storm capable of small hail or gusty winds, though this remains fairly low and widespread strong to severe storms is not expected.

Skies will begin to break up and clear behind the departing front this evening and overnight. With light winds also expected, fog will be possible tonight into Saturday morning, with potential for some patchy dense fog. The extent of fog development will depend on how much clearing occurs and, therefore, how much radiational cooling can take place.

Saturday and Sunday...

An active weekend of weather arrives Saturday as a shortwave impulse and increasing mid-level flow move through the Front Range, helping to spin up a surface low over Colorado that will gradually track eastward through the weekend. Ahead of this system, moisture will be drawn northward across the central Plains into the region, bringing dewpoints into the 60s with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s.

A broken round of WAA driven showers is expected to move across the area during the afternoon. Instability remains fairly limited with this early activity, with MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. While a strong to severe storm or two will be possible during this timeframe, the extend of afternoon severe weather will heavily hinge on where the better tongue on instability is drawn, with has continued to stay just to our south and west with latest CAM guidance, though a small northeast shift could change those odds.

By late afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop to our west before pushing eastward and congealing into a broken, rather messy cluster of storms over the area during the late evening and overnight period. Severe weather will remain possible as these storms move into the area and a LLJ develops, nosing into southeast Nebraska. The main limiting factor appears to be instability. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly impressive, generally around 5.5-6.5 C/km, and latest CAM guidance only brings a narrow corridor of MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg into southeast Nebraska, with must of the rest of the area remaining below 750 J/kg. That said, hodographs are long, with plentiful deep-layer shear and some low-level curvature. So while instability is not overly impressive, it may be sufficient. With this in mind, an initial threat for isolated pockets of hail or a brief tornado remain possible before transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat. Recent HRRR runs have also shown a signal for gusty wake-low winds behind the main precipitation shield, suggesting a sneaky wind threat that could persist through much of the night before severe weather potential gradually diminishes into Sunday morning.

The other primary concern for this period will be heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Behind the initial cluster of thunderstorms, a line of training storms is expected to develop overnight. Ingredients for heavy rainfall will increase into the overnight period, with PWAT values of 1.75 to 2 inches into southeast Nebraska, which is above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology, and warm cloud depths of 3.5-4 km. These factors will support efficient rainfall production. Again, the limiting factor is the relatively limited instability, but with deep warm-clouds, efficient rainfall remains possible. Confidence is high that some area will see training storms and heavy rainfall, with the main questions being where this axis sets up latitudinally. Latest guidance brings a broad area of 1-2 inches of rainfall with isolated pockets of 3 to 5 inches beneath the heavier training storms. With this in mind, have collaborated a Flood Watch for the for areas generally along and south of I-80. Expect refinements to the axis of heaviest rainfall with subsequent forecast packages.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to linger into Sunday morning before gradually tapering off through the day. Continued rain and cloud cover will keep highs in the 70s for most of the area.

Monday and Beyond...

Monday into next week, the upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain as a generally zonal flow aloft persists and embedded shortwave disturbances drive precipitation chances. With no strong forcing evident at this time, confidence in timing and coverage remains lower, especially regarding any strong to severe storm potential. Highs will remain generally in the 70s for the first half of the week, working back towards the 80s by the weekend. Periodic 15-30% PoPs continue Tuesday through at least Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. Scattered showers, and perhaps and isolated thunderstorms, will continue across the area this afternoon. The best potential for a heavier shower or thunderstorm is at KLNK around 19/19-22Z. Showers will clear from north to south into the evening. Patchy fog capable of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible overnight. This has not been included in the current TAF package due to the low confidence in coverage.

Winds will remain calm through the period, with a few afternoon gusts of 16-20 kts possible. Southwesterly winds will be shifting to northerly this afternoon as a front sags south across the area. Winds will become calm and variable overnight, eventually becoming southerly Saturday morning. Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances move in just beyond the end of the TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NEZ065>068-078-088>093. IA...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for IAZ090-091.