textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Today is day one of a three day warming trend. Expect a return of the 80s tomorrow and Monday.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening/tonight across northern Nebraska. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Sunday.

- A shift in the pattern brings cooler temperatures and daily chances of showers/thunderstorm activity to the region beginning Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper low over Saskatchewan and Manitoba and weak sfc high pressure over eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. Satellite shows some clouds streaming in across the border from Kansas into southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. Visible satellite imagery also shows an area of cumulus clouds across north central Nebraska where surface analysis is showing a moisture plume coming in from the southwest and an area of convergence. MLCAPE values of maybe 500 J/kg and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg are expected along with some decent lapse rates. A few showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of northeastern Nebraska this evening/tonight; however, a widespread severe weather threat is not expected. Should a few stronger storms develop, wind and some small hail would be the main concerns.

Heading into Sunday, the upper trough shifts east, centered over northern Missouri and into Iowa during the morning. A weak shortwave lifts northeastward into the region during the day. This may kick off a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Models have been pessimistic over the past few days over the storm potential. However, a few are starting to pick up on the possibility of something coming in along with a small plume of moisture advecting in. Went with a blend of the NAMNest, SREF and ECMWF to put in some low PoPs for Sunday to account for this potential. Confidence is still low as to severe weather potential; however, if a strong storm were to develop, the most likely concern would be hail.

Monday caps off a three-day warming trend with highs returning to the mid to upper 80s for most locations. A few low 90s are not entirely out of the question, particularly for northeastern Nebraska.

Monday through the remainder of the forecast period, the pattern shifts, giving the CWA daily chances for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. The overall pattern has a ridge over the forecast area Monday with an upper low over the Aleutians. The low is expected to come ashore over the PACNW Monday night/Tuesday morning, digging south into southern California by Thursday morning. Meanwhile, several disturbances will filter through our area, bringing chances for showers and storms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Expect westerly winds to become southwesterly by 20Z and southerly by 04Z as a weak disturbance pushes in. A few scattered rain showers may be possible after 00Z, but confidence in locations remain fairly low (15-20%) at this time. Rain chances will clear up by 04Z, with dry conditions and clearing skies expected for the erst of the period.

KOMA/KLNK: VFR conditions persist through the period at the terminals. Northwest winds remain light through the afternoon, beginning to turn to the west-southwest by 20Z. Winds become southerly by 00Z at KLNK and 02Z at KOMA. Dry conditions are expected through the period, although there may be a few showers/storms to the northwest of the terminals after 00Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.