textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog may develop once again early Monday morning.

- Temperatures will be near normal through Tuesday with dry conditions.

- Thunderstorm chances return to northeast Nebraska late Tuesday night, with better chances across the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

- A prolonged period of heat is expected this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Monday will be very "July" in that the high and low temperatures in the upper 80s and upper 60s should be very close to normal values for this date. It will be slightly warmer in western parts of the forecast area, sneaking into the lower 90s. Expect a south breeze, but nothing over 20 mph, and no precipitation. Tuesday's conditions will be quite similar to Monday.

Late Tuesday, model agreement is strong in a weak mid/upper level disturbance moving through the zonal flow pattern in the Dakotas. This will orient a weak surface front from northeast CO into southeast SD by late evening, and it may drift into northeast NE overnight. This could support a few storms, but the wind profiles are very weak south of the NE/SD border, so it would probably be a struggle to get anything severe other than the southern fringes of any potential MCS passing well to the north. All in all, late Tuesday doesn't look like much of a severe threat at this time, but something to keep an eye on.

That front sags south on Wednesday and stalls in the forecast area while another weak short wave trough and modest upper jet max have a glancing influence. This should set the stage for a round or two of thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday morning At least moderate instability looks likely , and wind shear profiles may be sufficient to support some storm organization. The high moisture content along with a slow moving frontal boundary suggest heavy rain potential as well, possibly lingering into Thursday night if the front remains in the vicinity.

As we move into the weekend and beyond, all signs point to heat. A substantial upper level ridge will build over the Four Corners region with strong agreement amongst ensemble guidance that this heat dome will build east over the Central Plains by early next week, likely leading to some of the hottest air of the year. The 8-14 day outlook also looks warmer than normal with a gradual bit of a cooling trend toward the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. There is a small chance of a TSRA to develop near OFK through 01Z, and a very small chance for slight vis restrictions overnight, but much more likely to maintain VFR.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.