textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through Friday morning. Another broken line of storms is expected later Friday with a strong to severe storm or two possible. Hail is the primary hazard.

- A warming trend begins this weekend, with mostly dry conditions expected through the holiday weekend.

- Rain chances return by the middle of next week, though timing and coverage remain uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Friday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis depict an upper-level trough moving from the Front Range into the central and northern Plains, maintaining generally southwesterly flow aloft across the region. Increasing moisture transport and forcing for ascent have led to shower and thunderstorm development this evening, which will become more widespread overnight. PoPs range from 75-100% and peak at most locations during the mid to late morning hours (8AM-11AM). Enough elevated instability is present for a few embedded thunderstorms through the period.

Showers will clear from west to east late Friday morning into early Friday afternoon, with highs reaching the 60s to low 70s. By late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, the main vorticity maximum will pivot across the Dakotas and push a cold front through the area. A scattered to broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the front as it moves west to east across the forecast area. The stronger shear and better instability will remain displaced from one another, limiting overall severe weather potential. Instability will be maximized across southeast NE and southwest IA, where 750-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to develop, while higher values remain south of the NE/KS border. Meanwhile, the stronger bulk shear will remain north of the NE/SD border, with only around 25-30 kts extending into the local area. With this setup, ingredients may be sufficient for a strong to severe storm or two across far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. Hodographs do support the potential for a low topped supercell or two. This round of storms should move through quickly, with precipitation expected to exit the area before midnight.

CAM guidance is in fairly good agreement in placing the highest rainfall totals over the next 24 hours in swatch from northeast NE into northwest IA. HREF guidance bring a 70-100% probability of at least 0.50 inches of precipitation across northeast NE, with probabilities decreasing farther south. There is also a 50-75% probability of at least 1 inch of rainfall across portions of northeast Nebraska. Localized pockets may push towards 1.50 inches. A welcome sight after the area missed out on a lot of meaningful rainfall so far this season.

Saturday through Monday...

A warming trend will take hold through the holiday weekend as mid- level riding and surface high pressure slide into the area. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 70s on Saturday, low 80s on Sunday, and mid to upper 80s on Monday. Generally dry conditions are expected through the holiday weekend. A weak vorticity maximum passing by to the north may bring a stray light shower or two on Monday. Moisture will be very limited, so the holiday is not expected to be a washout by any means, but a low chance (around 10- 15%) for a light shower will remain possible early Monday.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The large-scale pattern becomes somewhat uncertain next week as a trough moves onshore across the western CONUS. Long-range guidance diverges on the speed and placement of this features as it progresses eastward, leading to uncertainty in the timing and location of precipitation chances. For now, highs generally remain in the mid 80s, with intermittent 30-50% PoPs Tuesday through Friday. Expected further refinements to precipitation timing as the period approaches. No particular day currently stand out for severe weather, as more meaningful moisture advection and forcing for ascent don't arrive until at least midweek and appear maximized to our west for the time being.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

An area of rain showers and a few thunderstorms is observed on KOAX radar early this morning. These showers have resulted in MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility restrictions over terminals. Expect ceilings to continue dropping to 500-700 ft at KOFK and KLNK with persistent -SHRA, while MVFR ceilings prevail at KOMA. Some improvement in ceilings to MVFR is expected after 15-17z. A few short term models hint at potential early redevelopment of thunderstorms impacting terminals from 14-17z, but have left mentions out for now given uncertainty. Guidance remains in decent agreement on a more organized line of storms developing after 19z and affecting KOMA and KLNK, so have kept -TSRA mentions at those terminals. A few of the storms may be strong to severe with large hail or gusty winds. MVFR ceilings lift to VFR after 03z.

Winds remain from the east southeast this morning, gradually turning to the south southwest late in the period. Expect 20-25 kt gustiness in the late morning into the afternoon hours.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.