textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitter to dangerous cold Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights with wind chills in the teens and 20s below 0.

- 20-30% chance of snow Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon/evening in far northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Amounts should remain below 1/2 inch.

- Windy Wednesday with gusts of 35-45 mph for most of the area. This could lead to increased fire danger in some locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Pretty quiet and cool in the region today as surface high pressure/ridging was in control with northwesterly flow aloft. Some shortwave energy was approaching from the north and was leading to increasing clouds and some light radar returns across SD. Model soundings reveal quite a bit of dry air in the low levels, but there were one or two observation sites that were reporting flurries, so can't completely rule out a few flakes making it into the forecast area this evening (5-10% chance). Otherwise, temperatures as of 3 PM were in the upper teens to mid 20s with overnight lows expected to be in the single digits to lower teens.

We'll start to see a warmup on Tuesday as a surface low starts to spin up east of the Rockies head of an incoming shortwave currently over western Canada. This will lead to southerly flow and temperatures back in the 30s to lower 40s for much of the area. The shortwave itself looks to track through the Dakotas Tuesday afternoon/evening with associated precip largely staying to our north and closer to the better forcing, but most guidance suggests at least some light snow clips extreme northeast NE and into west- central IA (20% chance). Barring a southern shift, it should only amount to maybe a tenth of an inch or so in our area.

Wednesday looks windy with high pressure to our south and a surface low over southern Canada dragging a cold front into the area by the afternoon. Winds will begin the day southwesterly to westerly and should allow us to warm into at least the mid 30s to mid 40s before the front passes through and winds become northwesterly. Did bump up wind speeds/gusts a fair amount with EPS guidance showing mean gusts of 40-50 mph across much of the area and model soundings suggesting potential for even higher. If we do end up mixing a little deeper and warming/drying more, we could certainly have some fire weather concerns. Also, some of the short term guidance indicates some precip along the front. If we get snow with that wind, it could cause some visibility issues. For now, chances are in the 10-20% range, but we'll see how things trend.

After that, the main story becomes the cold air working in heading to the weekend. While Thursday should still see upper 20s to mid 30s, a reinforcing cold front will push in later in the day with temperatures expected to plunge below 0 across most of the area Thursday night/Friday morning. While not as windy as recent days, there does look to be a decent north breeze with that front, with wind chill values falling into the teens and 20s below 0. So at this point it's looking pretty likely that we'll have at least a Cold Weather Advisory for a chunk of the area. Unfortunately the daytime hours on Friday won't provide much relief, as HIGH temperatures will be in the single digits for much of the area. Wind chills will once again dip into the teens and 20s below 0 Friday night/Saturday morning, though daytime highs on Saturday will be twice as high as Friday (so upper single digits to teens...), but overnight wind chills will once again dip into the teens below 0 for much of the area. It looks like we'll see maybe a little more southerly flow as we get toward Sunday and Monday allowing temperatures to get back up into the 20s and 30s, but still a fair amount of spread in the pattern that far out.

There will be a few snow chances with the cold air as some weak shortwave ejects from a low off the coast of southern CA and interacts with the cold front to our south and some separate shortwave energy rounds the back side of the mid-level low over Canada. Still lots of spread in guidance on timing and placement, though consensus gives us about a 20-30% chance from Friday through Saturday. For what it's worth, most guidance keeps the most impactful snow well to our south with ensemble members that do produce snow for us limiting amounts to around an inch.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with passing mid-level clouds this afternoon and SCT to BKN clouds around 6000-7000 ft this evening into early Tuesday. Expect northwesterly winds this afternoon around 10 kts, with a few gusts of 18-20 kts at OFK. Winds will be light and somewhat variable overnight before settling in at southeasterly during the day Tuesday.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.