textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Channels have widened for portions of the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers, with some ice remaining on the Loup and Elkhorn. With that in mind, portions of the previous Flood Watch continue until 1 PM Wednesday.

- Temperatures are on the climb, with highs today in the 40s/50s only set to improve through the next 7 days.

- Chances for rain glance the area Thursday and Saturday, with neither one expected to bring more than 0.1" to any one location.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a belt of moisture and lift spilling over southern the California and into a northern mid/upper jet streak while a subtropical jet streak works its way over the southern most tier of states. We find ourselves on the cooler end of the cold front that passed through the area yesterday, with low clouds from earlier today quickly dissipating in the afternoon sun. Despite its passage, we're still well above normal temperatures for this time of year (highs in the upper 30s), with most of the area expected to hit the 40s and even 50 degrees in some spots. Over the last 24 hours, we've seen quite a bit of ice movement on the Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers, with wide channels opening up for good portions of the Platte and Elkhorn. Even with that improvement, ice does remain in place on the Loup and northern reaches of the Elkhorn River, and we have extended the Flood Watch already in place forward into tomorrow until 1 PM for the sections of those rivers in question. Temperatures through the forecast remain supportive of the remaining ice to move out, with highs only increasing from here on out. Overnight into the early morning models have been hinting at some very isolated pockets of river valley fog, favoring the NE/IA border and western Iowa starting at 4-5 AM.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Our initial dry weather continues into Wednesday, with high temperatures seeing a bump into the mid 50s thanks to a building thermal ridge to the west and southwesterly winds. Late in the day and into Thursday, a shortwave/clipper will traverse the Northern Plains, giving the forecast its first shot at precipitation. Thermal profiles in the area favor rain over any snow in eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with snow lovers needing to head towards Minnesota or northeastern Iowa to see any flakes fly. For those that do see rain, they'll likely be limited to far northeast Nebraska and portions of western Iowa, with any amounts being limited to 0.05" or less before it scoots to the east by noon. Highs both Thursday and Friday see another bump up into the upper 50s for most of the area, further reinforcing the abnormally warm start to February that we've seen so far.

Our next chance at precipitation arrives Saturday, as a compact shortwave that quickly coalesces off the Baja and ejects across the Desert Southwest into the Central and Southern Plains. While the surface low tracks across Oklahoma through Saturday, a shield of precipitation will stretch north of it into Kansas. Deterministic models continue to keep any rainfall south of the forecast area with the latest runs, but ensembles continue to hold at least a little hope that southeast Nebraska could see a trace of moisture, but nothing more than 0.1". As it moves east of the area, we'll see a ridge build heights across the central CONUS, propping up temperatures Sunday that eventually peak Tuesday into the 60s, as a deep trough takes shape to the west. Long term outlooks vastly differ from model to model on how and when the trough ejects/unpacks from the Intermountain West, but the feature will represent our next chance at widespread moisture for the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Winds remain out of the north-northwest this evening but will be shifting to southerly by 12Z Wednesday. Expect winds to stay out of the south through the end of the TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for NEZ016-017-031-032- 042. IA...None.