textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected Thursday, leading to dangerous wildfire conditions. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from noon to 9 PM.

- Winds will shift and increase behind a cold front Thursday evening, with northwesterly gusts of 50-60 mph possible. A High Wind Warnings has been issued for northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa.

- Another round of strong winds and wintry weather (60-80% PoPs) is expected to impact the region Saturday night into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Thursday and Friday...

A deepening surface low tracking along the US/Canada border will bring a warm, dry, and windy day to the area Thursday. Southwesterly winds will increase through the morning, with afternoon gusts expected to reach 40-45 mph. Strong low-level flow and efficient mixing will support much warmer temperatures, with highs climbing into the 60s to low 70s. Relative humidity values will drop into the 15-25% range, resulting in extreme fire danger across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from noon through 9 PM Thursday. Increasing mid- to high-level cloud cover during the afternoon may slightly limit mixing, particularly across northeast Nebraska, which could briefly temper afternoon winds. Regardless, fire weather concerns will remain very high to extreme.

A cold front will sweep through Thursday evening, veering winds from southwesterly to northwesterly and ushering in strong CAA behind the boundary. A several-hour period of gusts up to the 50-60 mph range appears likely with HRRR/RAP model soundings bringing 55-70 kts to the top of the mixed layer. The strongest winds are expected across northeast Nebraska, where some potential exists for gusts to exceed 60 mph (30% probability per the HREF). The primary uncertainty at this time is how far south these stronger gusts will extend. Given this potential, a High Wind Warning has been issued for Thursday evening across northeast Nebraska and west- central Iowa, with a High Wind Watch in effect along the I-80 corridor where confidence in warning-level gusts is lower.

Winds will gradually diminish through the Friday morning as surface high pressure build into the region. The post-frontal airmass will bring cooler conditions, with highs generally in the 40s and 50s. Light PoPs (30-40%) return to northeast Nebraska Friday evening as brief disturbance slides across the northern Plains. Moisture is rather limited with the passage, with a 20-40% probability of half an inch of snow across northeast Nebraska.

Saturday and Sunday...

This weekend, an amplifying mid-level trough moving across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will bring the next chance for widespread precipitation to the region. Southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the system will support mild temperatures Saturday, with highs reaching the 50s across northeast NE and the 60s across southeast NE. Precipitation chances increase late Saturday as an associated surface low tracks across the region. PoPs currently peak around 60-80% Saturday night into early Sunday before gradually tapering off through Sunday afternoon.

Precipitation type remain somewhat uncertain. Precipitation will likely begin as rain before transitioning to a rain/snow mix overnight and eventually changing to all snow, at least across northeast Nebraska, by Sunday morning. Ensemble guidance from both the GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS remains consistent in focusing the highest snow probabilities across northeast Nebraska, with probabilities decreasing southward. The EPS/EPS-AIFS suggests a 50-70% probability of at least 3 inches of snow across northeast Nebraska, while the GEFS indicates probabilities in the 30-50% range.

Gusty winds will also be a concern, particularly on Sunday as a tight pressure gradient develops on the backside of the departing surface low. EPS/EPS-AIFS guidance indicates an 70-90% probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph and 20-40% probability of gusts reaching 58 mph. Blowing snow could become a concern, although the strongest winds currently appear likely to remain south of the corridor with the highest snowfall probabilities just after snowfall exits the region. Regardless, this system will be one to monitor, especially for those with travel plans this weekend.

Monday and Beyond...

Persistent northwesterly flow aloft will keep Monday's highs generally confined to the 20s and 30s. The cooler conditions will be short- lived, however, as broad ridging begins to nose into the region by midweek. This will allow temperatures to rebound into the 40s and 50s Tuesday, with highs potentially reaching the 60s and 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.

The warmer pattern is expected to persist, as both the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks continue to favor above-normal temperatures across the region, with probabilities in the 60-80% range.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with quiet winds through 12-14z, before speeds start ramping up out of the southwest tomorrow morning. From 12-14z onward, gusts will quickly increase to 30-37 kts heading into the afternoon while mid/high clouds from the north clip the area. Those gust speeds will decrease slightly between 22-02z tomorrow evening, with a shift to northwesterly winds sends those speeds even higher than the afternoon gusts. Tomorrow night, gust speeds in the 40-50 kt range look likely at times, with the highest speeds across northeast Nebraska. At FL018, sustained wind speeds will be close to 60 kts, causing turbulence from low- level wind shear at all sites.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045. High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for NEZ050>053-065>067. IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Friday for IAZ043-055-056. High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for IAZ069-079-080.