textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Stretch of hot weather will last through at least the upcoming week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Expect occasional morning patchy fog through this week.

- Rain chances remain below 5% through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Tonight:

Satellite imagery this evening shows a void of activity over the Central Plains, guarded by high surface pressure to the north of convective activity across the southern tier of the CONUS while a dominant mid/upper ridge continues to shuffle away any shortwaves to the north of the area. Dewpoints have recovered once again this evening with values pushing into the upper 60s and low 70s, remaining higher than most guidance and once again that patchy fog may be more likely than models forecast it to be. With low temperature values forecast to dip into the mid 60s, there isn't as much room to cool below the afternoon crossover temperatures in addition to slightly windier conditions compared to last night. As of now, the areas most likely to see fog (mostly after 3 AM) would be valleys in southwest Iowa and far northeast Nebraska where dewpoint values currently sit in the 70s.

Monday and Beyond:

The general forecast for the week remains on track for increasing heat, driven by the aforementioned mid/upper ridge that will see little to challenge it and incur a pattern change. An impressive low- level thermal ridge is placed from the Intermountain West into the High Plains and Dakotas, and is forecast to move more in line with the forecast area through the week as the ridge remains broad but decreases in amplitude. Highs around 90 degrees Monday afternoon will see a daily 2-3 degree increase through Friday, where highs in the mid-to-upper 90s and near 100 degrees hold heading into the weekend. Of equal importance, temperature relief will be hard to come by overnight, as lows Friday onward struggle to reach 75 degrees for much of southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa, making it difficult for those outdoors or without air conditioning. The combination of these two things could lead to larger heat stress for the area, especially for urban areas, and we're increasing in confidence that we may issue some sort of advisory for Friday/Saturday (30-40% chance).

Taking a look at precipitation chances, the continued strength of the ridging pattern and lack of deeper southerly flow will disappoint those looking for rain. We'll have to rely on storms (or remnants there of) that would initiate outside of the forecast and drift into the area. Some of the global models indicate that we could see northwestward-moving showers in the area as storms are steered by the clockwise columnar flow late this week, but chances for rain are better (15-25% chance) late this weekend into early next week as a stronger shortwave drags a frontal passage through the area. Other than that, the best bet for any wetness at the surface will continue to be overnight/early morning fog that will rely on cooling past the previous afternoons' dewpoints and quiet winds.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Morning very patchy fog will dissipate over the next couple hours with no aviation impacts anticipated at this time. Southeast winds continue across the area under clear skies.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.