textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued warm into Saturday. Friday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- High to potentially very high fire danger Friday afternoon. - 40-50% chance of precipitation Monday. This will most likely be rain, but there is about a 10% chance we see some accumulating snow in some locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Today and Thursday:

A mid-level ridge located over the Interior West will slowly build east, reaching the central U.S. Thursday into Thursday night. In the low levels, a ridge of high pressure will build through the mid-MO Valley today ahead of a lee trough that will deepen over the northern and central High Plains Thursday. The high pressure represents a slightly cooler air mass that is filtering into the area this morning with today's highs (upper 50s to mid 60s) a bit cooler than those yesterday.

Winds will switch to south tonight into Thursday, which will contribute to warmer temperatures with highs in the 60s.

Friday through Sunday:

A mid/upper-level low and associated troughing will progress through central Canada and the north-central U.S. Friday and Saturday with an attending surface front pushing through our area Saturday morning. Persistent south winds ahead of the front will will maintain an unseasonably warm air mass across the region with Friday likely being the warmest day of the week. High temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s, which will be in the neighborhood of the record highs for the day (76/Omaha, 75/Lincoln, 72/Norfolk). The warm temperatures and relatively dry air mass (minimum RH of 25-30%) will result in high to potentially very high fire danger in northeast NE Friday afternoon.

The models continue to indicate a dry frontal passage Saturday morning, which is reflected in this forecast update with less than 5% PoPs.

Temperatures are expected to cool slightly Saturday with the early-day frontal passage with highs in the 60s to around 70. Further cooling is anticipated Sunday with highs in the 50s to around 60.

Early next week:

Latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in a bit better agreement in the timing of a short-wave trough and associated surface low into the central Plains Monday, though latitudinal (north-south) track differences do exist. Those track variations could have implications on precipitation type with a more northern track supporting mainly rain. In contrast, a more southern track would increase the chance of a rain-snow mix in parts of our area. This forecast update will indicate 40-50% PoPs Monday with a rain-snow mix developing in northeast NE Monday evening.

We'll see cooler temperatures with the movement of the weather system into the area with highs in 40s and 50s both days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Mostly clear skies today leaves the TAF forecast in the VFR category over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain under 10 knots through Thursday morning, generally turning from the northwest (now), to the east (Wednesday evening) and eventually the south (Thursday morning).

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.