textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry system arrives Sunday/Monday, bringing chances for snow, ice, and drizzle to areas mainly along and south of I-80.

- Temperatures begin trending upwards Monday afternoon through much of the week, keeping additional precipitation as rain.

- A another system arrives Friday into early Saturday, with rain expected to continue as the primary precipitation type.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Tonight through Monday Morning:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows weak troughing centered over the eastern third of the CONUS, while zonal to northwesterly flow pours in from the west over the western two-thirds. High pressure continues to keep its hold over the northern half of the Great Plains, with northeasterly winds ushering in temperatures in the 20s across the area, that are set to further drop into the upper teens and lower 20s at their lowest point overnight. Though current dewpoints are near the forecast overnight low temperatures, dry air advection will counteract any cooling to reduce any fog chances to nearly zero.

By sunrise tomorrow, a swath of warm air advection and incoming positive vorticity advection will kick start over the Central and Southern High Plains and will serve as the primary driver of snow/ice that move through southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa during the afternoon and evening hours. We find ourselves on the northern end of the precipitation, with lower coverage due to the limited northern extent of the shortwave and thus have lower expectations for any snow/ice accumulations. Overall QPF with the latest runs of the models has increased, but a messy precipitation type will cut down on what actually piles up at the surface, as that WAA advection strengthens to push temps to freezing and partially melt snow aloft. Expect sub-ten-to-one snow ratios where you do see snow, with near freezing to just below temperatures (that only cool overnight), making any ice and re-freezing of melted rain/snow/ice the biggest thing to be ready for. The locations expected to see some ice impacts (50-70% chance) have a Winter Weather Advisory out for them, while any further expansion depending on whether or not amounts trend upwards.

As the main shield of rain/wintry mix shuffles to the south and east of the area late Sunday, marginal lift will continue into the overnight and early morning hours of Monday, resulting in areas of freezing drizzle. Latest runs of the short-term models have disparate coverage for the drizzle, lowering confidence in it occurring (10-30% chance). Nonetheless, the limited coverage, duration, and light winds should mean accumulations will be inefficient and limit impacts to the Monday morning commute.

Monday and Beyond:

As the morning rounds out into the afternoon, expect the dreary conditions to continue through the day with any slickness melting thanks to high temperatures that push into the 40s in anticipation of a shortwave trough approaching from the west. As this system reaches the Central High Plains just to the east of the area, it will meander southeast and help keep prolonged precipitation forecast for the area through Wednesday. As it lingers, most of the forecast area should see a good quarter to half in of rainfall that would go a long way to help us with recent dryness. Temperatures trend upwards through this stretch with the prolonged southerly return flow ahead of the system, peaking Thursday as a break in the clouds and light rain chances leave us with sunny skies and a thermal ridge over the area. Heading into the weekend, model divergence increases, but we do have good odds of seeing more beneficial precipitation headed for us as another trough sheds a shortwave through the area before retrograding to southern California by Saturday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions are currently ongoing at the terminal. Ceilings are expected to drop by 02Z as stratus moves into the region with the next storm system. A few light snow showers are moving around the terminal but at this point in time, snow chances are not great at KOFK. Conditions fall to MVFR after midnight with winds becoming southerly. Freezing drizzle may develop, particularly south of I-80, but we are not currently thinking it will impact the terminal at this time.

KOMA: Ceilings have improved to VFR levels and are expected to remain through around midnight. After midnight, ceilings are expected to lower as stratus moves into the region. Some pockets of light snow will fall across portions of the region this afternoon/early evening, with better chances south of the terminal. For now due to uncertainty, have opted to not put snow in prevailing conditions. The best chance should anything make it as far east as the terminal would be between 19Z and 23Z. Overnight/early Monday morning, freezing drizzle is expected south of I-80 with better chances toward the KS/NE border. There is a small (20%) chance that a little freezing drizzle may occur near KOMA, but confidence in this solution is low.

KLNK: VFR conditions continue at the terminal early in the forecast period. Expect ceilings to lower as snow to the west of the terminal pushes into the area. Have enough confidence in snow impacting the terminal that a mention was made between 20Z and 00Z. Chances will be non-zero after that time; however they will be low. After midnight, there is a chance of freezing drizzle toward the KS/NE border. There is a 20% chance of freezing drizzle possibly developing near KLNK, but confidence is low in this solution at this time, so it was not added to prevailing conditions for now.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Monday for NEZ088>093. IA...None.