textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures mainly in the 70s return this week.

- Outside of a few light showers Tuesday night, dry conditions will continue, with our next chance of rain not expected until Saturday and Sunday.

- Strong south winds gusting to 30-40 mph arrive Friday, increasing fire danger for areas with standing crops.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Outside of passing high clouds associated with a shortwave north of the area this evening, the weather remains quiet and dry. Skies clear out tonight helping temperatures to cool down into the 40s by Tuesday morning. Mostly sunny skies start the day as upper-level ridging begins to build across the Great Plains. Afternoon temperatures should approach the upper 60s and low 70s ahead of our next disturbance. Another shortwave trough will lift north from the southern Rockies late Tuesday afternoon. Increasing clouds are anticipated Tuesday evening in response. A few showers may develop over portions of northern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska with the passage of this trough. These showers will struggle to produce much if any rainfall as a dry sub-cloud layer should prevent much of the precipitation from reaching the ground. Increased cloud cover helps to keep overnight temperatures a touch warmer with Wednesday morning lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning turns back to warm, dry, and quiet weather as large-scale ridging sets up across the central CONUS. Other than scattered high clouds at times, mostly sunny skies and light winds are anticipated. Afternoon temperatures climb well into the 70s with overnight low temperatures mostly in the 50s. The quiet weather comes to an end by Friday afternoon as our next weather system enters the picture.

Friday afternoon remains warm, but a deep trough over the Southwest begins to eject northeast across the Great Plains during this time. In response, lee troughing commences to the west of the region and the surface pressure gradient tightens. Strong south winds overspread the area as a result with peak gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. This will pose increased fire danger concerns with dry standing crops waiting to be harvested. That being said, increasing relative humidity as moisture returns to the area may help to limit these concerns. With the strong southerly winds, temperatures remain well into the 70s.

As the aforementioned trough lifts northeast, a cold front swings across the region on Saturday. Our next chance of rain accompanies this front as well. Currently, Saturday afternoon sees the cold front bisect the region by afternoon. Cooler temperatures in the 60s are expected behind the front over northeast Nebraska with warmer temperatures in the 70s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Our highest rain chances will be during this time. Most locations have a 40-70% chance of showers and with perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder. Temperatures turn cooler on Sunday as the front mostly clears the region with 60s back in the forecast. A least a low chance (20-40%) of showers remains in the forecast as the trough moves overhead. The cooler weather continues into next week with additional rain chances possible with a more unsettled pattern appearing likely. The exact details differ between forecast models, but these details should become clearer as the week progresses.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with a few clouds around 5000-7000 ft this afternoon and evening. Said clouds could also bring some light showers, but given expected spotty nature and latest guidance having highest chances south of LNK, not including mention (20% chance of seeing anything). Otherwise, winds will remain southeasterly to southerly, with a few gusts around 18-20 kts this afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.