textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- One last warm day today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

- Rain gradually overspreads the area late tonight (20 to 40% chance) into much of Monday (50 to 70%).

- Windy conditions expected Tuesday with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Isolated gusts up to 45 to 50 mph are not out of the question and may lead to fire weather concerns.

- Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest updates concerning winter weather potential from Thanksgiving into the weekend.

LONG TERM

/TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

An H5 shortwave trof just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is progged to amplify and deepen as it moves southeast toward the Northern Plains Tuesday morning. The shortwave will eventually induce a sfc low over eastern Wyoming, tracking along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. However, the best H7-H5 Q-vector convergence and implied lift is observed over the Dakotas as is moisture transport originating from the Pacific and remnants of Monday's system. The bulk of deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the band of precip well north of the forecast area, but a few showers could clip far northeast Nebraska. NBM extended shows 15% PoPs barely clipping far northern Knox County at this time. Any potential precip from this wave would most likely be rain initially, but a change over to light snow is not out of the question depending on how soon the strong punch of cold air at H8 moves in. This should drop high temperatures to the mid 40s to low 50s.

The primary concern on Tuesday continues to be strong northwesterly winds. A strong, 50 to 60 kt LLJ coupled with the aforementioned H8 cold air advection should lead to strong subsidence just behind the main sfc cold front as it pushes through the forecast area. The strong subsidence should help drive down at least some of this strong momentum to the sfc, resulting in the strong winds. Widespread gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected across eastern Nebraska, with slightly lower gusts across western Iowa by late Tuesday morning. The majority of GEFS and EPS members suggest gusts of 35 to 45 mph across the area, while a considerable amount of EPS members show 45 to 55 mph gusts over northeast Nebraska. Will need to keep an eye on trends and assess needs for wind and fire weather headlines (particularly areas that received little to no wetting precip from Monday).

Winds gradually subside by Wednesday as sfc high pressure finally moves into the area. Aside from some clouds and cooler highs (mid 30s across northeast Nebraska to low 40s near the Nebraska/Kansas border), quiet conditions are expected for Wednesday and Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, model solutions show a shortwave trof over the Pacific NW ejecting southeast, modifying the H5 pattern. Lots of subtle differences are still seen amongst guidance, but general consensus appears to show zonal to southwesterly flow across the Central Plains allowing subtle waves to ride that flow. Latest ensemble suite continues to develop a band of snow somewhere across the Northern Plains on Friday, with the different members shifting the band either well north, south, or right over our forecast area. By Saturday, ensemble guidance shows another potential round of precip but with each member having its own spatial differences, while deterministic guidance shows widespread areas of the Central and Northern Plains with precip. NBM extended currently has 15 to 25% PoPs Friday evening across mainly western Iowa and along the Missouri River Valley, while Saturday widespread 30 to 50% PoPs are seen across much of the forecast area, most likely due to the wide variance seen in model placement of precipitation. With lots of uncertainty regarding precip timing, type, and placement during this holiday travel period, make sure to keep up to date with the forecast for the latest updates and information.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A tricky and complicated aviation forecast is expected tonight into tomorrow. Conditions are VFR with southerly winds this evening. Fog is already beginning to develop over portions of central Iowa and northern Missouri with a band of rain showers lifting northeast out of central Kansas. The fog to the east may develop westward toward OMA before midnight, but confidence is low on the extent and severity of this fog. As the arching band of rain showers enters our region, ceilings will quickly fall, as will visibility. Beginning with OFK and LNK around 06Z to 08Z, ceilings are expected to fall through MVFR to IFR in rapid succession. Visibility is expected to fall to MVFR also. Patchy fog is anticipated to be intermixed with these rain showers, though visibility may fluctuate at times. These worsening conditions reach OMA an hour or two after OFK and LNK. Ceilings are likely to hold at IFR for all into the late morning on Monday even as the rain showers begin to exit the region to the northeast. Brief reductions below 500 ft ceilings may also be possible, but confidence is low at this time. Rain showers are expected to keep ceilings from falling below 500 ft. Trends will continue to be monitored if timing or severity of expected conditions changes significantly.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.