textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of central into eastern Nebraska due to very dry conditions and gusty winds through late this evening.

- A front will move through this evening bringing low-end rain chances (15-30%) and sporadic gusts of 40 to 50+ mph.

- Warm temperatures this afternoon are on track to break or tie record highs across much of the area.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday into Friday. There is a medium (30-50%) chance of accumulating snow and travel impacts for portions of northeast Nebraska currently.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

An active period of weather is expected throughout the remainder of the week and potentially into this weekend. This afternoon starts off our active weather with extreme fire danger and near-record to record high temperatures. A potent southwesterly low-level jet is overspreading the region. This feature will help to make conditions very dry and gusty through the afternoon and evening resulting in Red Flag Warnings for much of central and eastern Nebraska. Temperatures should also soar well into the 70s across the area, challenging or breaking many records in the process. The first weather system moves through the region tonight. A westerly wind shift with a front arrives this evening, this brings a low chance (15-30%) of rain with it. With very dry conditions, very little rain will make it to the surface and this may instead support a low chance of wind gusts of 40 to 50+ mph due to virga. Winds will be slow to weaken tonight helping keep temperatures from cooling efficiently. Very high fire danger lingers into Wednesday with negligible moisture recovery. Temperatures and wind speeds decrease behind tonights system, but gusty winds over northeast Nebraska and areawide warm temperatures in the 60s remain.

The next system is forecast to arrive Thursday into Friday. This system will bring much cooler temperatures to the area and mark the return of snow to the forecast after a prolonged hiatus. Cooling temperatures behind a developing low pressure system sees rain change to snow Thursday afternoon and evening. With snow expected overnight into early Friday morning for much of the area. At this time the best chance of precipitation (50-70%) is forecast over portions of northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. That said, any heavier snow bands are anticipated to remain narrow. Latest model guidance continues to show appreciable spread between runs and models on the track of this heavier band. At this time, where the heaviest snow band sets up, several inches of snow is not out of the question, resulting in travel impacts. Elsewhere, precipitation amounts should be more limited. Light snow accumulations may still be possible, but travel impacts would be lesser. Look for continued updates as confidence increases with snow potential.

The next system passes south of the region on Saturday. Colder temperatures will remain from the previous system, allowing for additional snowfall potential with any precipitation. At this time, the bulk of any precipitation is forecast to remain south of the area. That said, a low (20-40%) chance of light snow and accumulations may develop for portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa should precipitation reach this far north. This additional system will continue to be closely monitored.

The pattern settles down a bit by Sunday into early next week. Dry conditions return to the area as temperatures warm back above normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Strengthening southerly winds are anticipated this afternoon with gusts approaching 30 kts. A front swings from west to east through the area late this evening. A westerly wind shift will accompany this front and LLWS is forecast for several hours behind the front at OMA and LNK. Winds will remain strong through the night, but gradually weaken by Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Extreme fire danger this afternoon into late this evening remains on track. The Red Flag Warning was expanded eastward with clouds quick to clear late this morning. Very dry conditions with relative humidity as low as 15% to 30% and wind gusts upwards of 40 MPH are anticipated for much of central and eastern Nebraska. There is a low chance of even higher wind gusts approaching 50 mph with a front this evening. Virga showers and very strong low-level winds may locally enhance surface wind gusts along this front. Very high to extreme fire danger lingers late this evening with negligible recovery and gusty winds weakening slowly. This would cause fire control concerns should any fires remain active into this evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for NEZ011- 016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093. IA...None.