textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms expected overnight (70-90% chance), mainly weak but could see some pea-size hail.

- Active pattern continues with additional showers and storms possible Saturday afternoon (20-40% chance) through Sunday (30-60% chance).

- Temperatures warming into the 80s next week with additional chances for showers and storms each day. Potential for a few strong to severe storms mainly Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

We're seeing increasing cloud cover this evening as a stationary front over Oklahoma slowly starts to lifts north. As the front lifts north expect to see elevated showers and thunderstorms develop overnight tonight as a subtle shortwave interacts with the low- level jet advecting in warm, moist, unstable air above the surface front. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to shift off to the east by mid-morning on Saturday but expect fairly gloomy conditions through the day. Low clouds hang around much of the day with 20-40% chances for light rain. The surface front finally lifts north into our area Saturday afternoon/evening. As it moves through we'll see lifting and breaks in the cloud cover as well as a late surge of warmer air with afternoon highs peaking around the 5-7pm timeframe before the sun sets. We could even see a warm-sector convective storm or two clip our southeastern Nebraska/southwest Iowa counties toward the evening if the warm front moves through a little quicker.

Chances (20-40%) for showers and storms hold through Saturday night as the low-level jet only gets stronger over our area ahead of the shortwave moving into the Dakotas. Meanwhile, large-amplitude troughing over the West Coast continues to churn out shortwaves that will bring additional chances for showers and storms on Sunday.

Sunday will be a much warmer day, being fully situated in the warm-sector with strong WAA and moisture advection ongoing across the region. Ensembles seem overdone on the western extent of rain chances on Sunday as models start shifting the moisture plume eastward with the upper-level trough acting to nudge the low-level jet eastward through the day on Sunday. By Sunday afternoon deterministic models have it mostly east of our area with drier air getting advected in from the southwest. For this reason, collaborated with neighbors to lower PoPs Sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Still some potential for showers and storms, which if the LLJ hangs around long enough, could have enough shear for severe potential across our far east counties. This is highlighted with a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk by the Storm Prediction Center for Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday will still be the two days to watch for a better organized severe threat as the deep upper-level trough over the West Coast starts to advance inland. This helps with the development of a couple of strong open-wave troughs that will move through Monday and Tuesday. The good news for Monday is that right now the track of this system only serves to help push the low-level jet/moisture plume east minimizing shower and storm potential across much of our area apart from our far eastern counties. Even there we're only seeing 15-25% PoPs. It looks like as of now that the better chances for strong storms will be south and east of our area on Monday.

Tuesday we actually see the system try and pull the warm, moist, unstable air mass back west into our area bringing back a better potential for showers and storms, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening. With ample shear and instability, I expect we'll see a decent chance for a few strong to severe storms developing across our southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa counties.

Later Next Week....

The upper-level trough never really is able to cut loose from the western CONUS with a strong reinforcing upper-level wave bringing another deep trough south out of British Columbia Wednesday into Thursday. With continuing southwesterly flow our weather pattern looks to remain fairly active with additional chances for showers and storms through the end of next week. Temperatures look to stay fairly warm with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s next week with a potential cool down as a stronger front moves through on Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A low stratus deck remains in place over terminals this afternoon resulting in IFR ceilings. Some breaks in clouds to scattered may occur before broken and overcast ceilings lift to MVFR and eventually VFR. Have adjusted times a bit earlier for stratus clearing out with this issuance based on latest model guidance. 1738z radar imagery shows ongoing areas of showers and storms just south of KLNK. Some of these may clip the terminal within the next two hours or so, but considerable uncertainty exists on if these storms will sustain themselves so have left mentions out of TAF for now. More showers and storms may redevelop late this afternoon into the evening hours (30 to 40% chance), but lots of spread exists amongst model solutions on if storms will even develop. If storms form, they could be strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado.

Ceilings deteriorate back to MVFR after 08z at KOMA and KLNK and persist into Sunday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds of 25 to 30 kts persist for much of the TAF period, but turn southerly late tonight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.