textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Knox, Cedar, Antelope, Pierce and Wayne counties in northern Nebraska for Tuesday from Noon to 9pm. This replaces the Fire Weather Watch previously in effect.

- Thursday will bring the potential for fire weather concerns as gusty winds and low RH values will be in place over portions of the area.

- Thursday brings a chance for a few showers and storms to portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The forecast period begins with an amplified ridge over the PACNW and Canada and a surface low over Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Overnight, the low will slide southeast into portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota. An attendant cool front over the Dakotas will begin pushing the Panhandle and north central Nebraska. A few sprinkles or light showers will be possible through the overnight hours. However, with as dry as the air has been, little to no precipitation is expected to reach the ground.

Tuesday, the cool front will push into the region. Unfortunately, it will be bring in some gusty winds and dry air. Slightly cooler air will move into the region behind the front, with expected highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s in north central Nebraska to the low to mid-80s for areas along and south of Hwy 92. There remains considerable concern that with wind gusts of up to 35mph and minimum RH values in the upper teens to mid-20s, dry fuels, and ample sunshine, that near-critical to critical fire weather conditions will be met in north central Nebraska during the late morning through the afternoon. The previous Fire Weather Watch for Knox, Cedar, Antelope, Pierce and Wayne counties in northern Nebraska has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, which will be in effect from Noon to 9pm Tuesday.

Wednesday, the ridge over the Rockies begins to shift east. Expect a pretty nice day Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region. Winds will be noticeably lighter with high pressure in place.

Thursday brings the ridge across the area and off toward the northern Great Lakes. A shortwave trough over central Montana will slide east across the Dakotas and the Nebraska Panhandle. Expect gusty winds through the day with a fairly tight pressure gradient over the region. A warm front will move to the east of the forecast area through the day with another boundary coming in from the west. High temperatures will rebound back into the upper 70s to mid-80s across the region. Dry conditions are also expected, which, in combination with gusty winds and dry fuels in northeastern Nebraska may result in high fire danger. This will be something to monitor for as we get closer to the event.

The other question with Thursday will be whether we are able to get any strong/severe weather. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to kick off along the boundary Thursday, bringing a much needed chance for some rain.

A shortwave trough lifts into the region Saturday, bringing a chance for a few showers and storms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Weekend temperatures will be quite summer-like, with some models hinting at highs reaching the 90s in some locations.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Elevated south winds continue tonight. A low-level jet has overspread the region and is resulting in LLWS. LLWS dissipates between 11-13Z as the low-level jet weakens. Winds will begin to shift towards the west during this time also. A cold front sags southeast through the area between 13-16Z, resulting in a shift to northwest winds. Elevated northwest winds are anticipated through the afternoon with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible around OFK with lower gusts elsewhere.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-016>018. IA...None.