textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet conditions continue today and Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s. Fog may develop over western Iowa and far eastern Nebraska Sunday morning.

- Rain returns late Sunday night into Monday (60-80% chance). Cooler with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s Wednesday through Friday.

- Continue to monitor forecast from Thanksgiving into the weekend as potential exists for snowfall, although specific details and confidence remain low at this time.

LONG TERM

/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Rain will be ongoing Monday as the H5 cutoff low moves east across the Central Plains. PoPs increase to 60 to 80% Monday morning over much of the forecast period, eventually tapering off and exiting to the east by Monday evening. Storm total QPF will be light as most locations will see a few hundredths to around 0.15 inches. Highs Monday reach the low to mid 50s.

After the cutoff low passes, an H5 shortwave will eject from the Pacific Northwest to the southeast, arriving at our doorstep on Tuesday. The shortwave will induce a sfc low which will track east across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Wisconsin. Model guidance suggests the sfc low will deepen across Minnesota into Wisconsin, tightening the sfc pressure gradient over much of the Northern Plains. Aloft, a 40-50 kt jet behind the H8 closed low coupled with strong cold air advection should help promote strong subsidence and lead to gusty 30 to 35 mph northwest winds. Model guidance is also suggesting the shortwave will have enough moisture to work with resulting in a band of precipitation forming primarily over the Dakotas in the early morning, but this may clip far northeast Nebraska (15-20% PoPs). Forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest that snow would be the most likely precip type, but chances remain low for snow to occur (~15% chance) at this time. For what it's worth, most ensemble guidance keeps the forecast area dry. High temperatures Tuesday are forecast for the mid to upper 40s.

The H5 shortwave will intensify into a closed low, elongating the longwave trof over the eastern CONUS for Wednesday. Behind the trof, deterministic guidance suggests an area of sfc high pressure overspreading much of the Central and Northern Plains, lingering through Thanksgiving and Friday. Highs Wednesday through Friday largely range in the mid 30s to low 40s. Northwesterly flow at H5 should allow for at least some shortwave energy to eject southeast, and while the current forecast package has dry conditions persisting from Wednesday to Friday, a minimal amount of LREF members suggest a band of precip somewhere across portions of the Northern Plains during this period. By the weekend, a longwave trof is progged to amplify over the western CONUS, but lots of spread in location/solution placement is seen. Obviously, considerable uncertainty exists regarding precip type, amounts, feature locations, etc., so expect further refinements and adjustments with subsequent forecast packages. Those with travel plans should continue to monitor the forecast for the latest information and updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

KOFK/KLNK: VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at the terminals. Northwest winds become westerly after midnight, before becoming southerly around mid-morning. A few high clouds will move into the region around 15Z, increasing in coverage from the west in the afternoon.

KOMA: VFR conditions prevail for most of the forecast period at KOMA. Northerly winds become calm around 09Z. There will be a chance for fog development overnight with some potential visibility and ceiling impacts to the terminal between 09 and 15Z. Winds become southerly around 15Z with things clearing up heading into the late morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.