textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into Friday morning. Patchy rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1 inch are expected, with some locally higher amounts possible near the Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Dangerous heat and humidity builds this weekend, with heat index values reaching near 105 on Saturday and 105 to 115 Sunday and Monday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area Saturday afternoon through Monday evening. An Extreme Heat Watch is also in effect for the Omaha metro into southwest Iowa Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.

- Expect much more dry weather than wet next week, but we'll have periodic 20-30% chances for showers and storms.

UPDATE

Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

In collaboration with neighboring WFOs, have issued a Heat Advisory for all of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa starting noon Saturday through 10 pm Monday night. The Omaha metro area and locations in southwest Iowa may see heat indices flirt with the 115F mark Sunday afternoon and again Monday. Have issued an Extreme Heat Watch for these areas starting Sunday afternoon through 10 pm Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Starting to see a little more shower coverage in the area as of 10 PM, with the shortwave energy and mid-level frontogenesis in SD finally starting to push into the area. Additional storm development was taking place across northern KS as a low-level jet/moisture transport ramped up. This activity should gradually spread northeastward into the forecast area as we go through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. With precipitable water values approaching and exceeding 2" (1.92" on the 00Z OAX sounding) and warm cloud depths of 4-4.5 km, the potential for efficient rain- producing storms will be there. The big question will be how much elevated instability will be available to get higher and more impactful rainfall amounts. Latest guidance suggests 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could creep just north of the NE/KS border (a slight uptick compared to afternoon solutions), meaning increasing potential for some heavier rain. Various CAMs highlight localized areas of 1-2+ inches in vicinity of this elevated instability, with totals to the north more in the range of a few hundredths to half an inch. If a spot manages to get repeated rounds, can't rule out some localized flooding (10% chance at a given spot). That said, ongoing storms and heavy rain in KS may end up keeping things a bit farther south after all, so overall confidence in rainfall amounts is somewhat low, though still think there's potential for an inch or 2 near the NE/KS border.

Precip should gradually push out of the area Friday morning with largely dry weather favored by noon or 1 PM. Clouds will linger a bit longer and will keep us cooler for one more day as temperatures top out in the mid 70s to mid 80s from east to west across the area. For the evening and overnight, guidance is in good agreement that we see fog development in a good chunk of the area with southerly flow helping to keep dewpoints around 70, near forecast lows overnight.

The heat and humidity are then very much on for the weekend into early next week as upper level ridging to our west amplifies and slides eastward. Given the persistent southerly flow and continued cropland evapotranspiration, dewpoints should hover in the 70s. Temperatures may be a little more questionable with some guidance hinting at weak shortwave energy rounding the ridge and bringing us some cloud cover, if not showers and storms, though still lots of spread in exact timing and track of those. However, even with some clouds, it's still looking hot, with ensembles giving us 850 mb temperatures in the mid to upper 20s C (90th+ percentile of climatology). As a result, model consensus gives us widespread highs in the 90s and few 100s on Saturday, followed by mid 90s to lower 100s Sunday and Monday. As a side note, GFS/GEFS guidance continues to over-mix and give us highs exceeding 110 in many locations. EPS continues to look much more reasonable. All that said, expect widespread heat indices nearing 105 on Saturday, followed by 105-115 across much of the area on Sunday and possibly Monday. Heat Advisories are looking likely (60-90% chance) those three days and if confidence increases that we'll see 110+ heat indices multiple days, an Extreme Heat Warning may become necessary (50% chance for portions of southwest IA).

Beyond Monday, we'll start to see more shortwave troughs round the ridge and bring us on and off shower and storm chances. This will also lead to slightly cooler temperatures, but still seasonably warm with lower to mid 90s for most well into the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A band of low level stratus is observed over terminals early this morning along with widely scattered showers. Showers should gradually decrease in coverage within the next few hours. Expect ceilings to drop to IFR at the majority of terminals through mid morning before slowly lifting up to MVFR. Guidance is pretty persistent in keeping MVFR for much of the daytime into this evening, but have opted for the more optimistic solution with this issuance to raise ceilings to VFR by the late afternoon hours. After 06z, most guidance is in good agreement that fog will overspread KOMA and KLNK, so have begun trending toward lower ceilings and visbys thereafter. Winds will remain light under 10 kts and from the south southeast.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065>068-078- 088>093. Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for NEZ052- 053. Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for NEZ052-053. IA...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ043. Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CDT Sunday for IAZ055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.