textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Most locations will see hot and humid conditions with partly cloudy skies throughout the majority of the day.

- More storms redevelop this afternoon and evening (40-50% chance). There is a 5% chance that some could be severe. Additional storm chances persist for much of the weekend through Monday with cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Tonight through Friday Night...

A warm front will lift through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa tonight, dragging warm moist air northward. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible north of this boundary overnight, primarily over far northeast Nebraska into western Iowa. With moisture pooling over the region, there remains at least some potential for fog to redevelop tonight, primarily over northeast Nebraska. However, this could very well be limited by southeasterly surface winds blowing at 5-15 mph.

The good news is, most of Friday looks to be fairly dry, with temperatures rising well into the 80s and lower 90s across the region. However, with the warming temperatures comes increased risk for strong to severe storms. By mid afternoon, 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE will settle into the mid Missouri Valley, ahead of a cold front sweeping in from the west. Deep layer shear still doesn't look that impressive, at around 20-30 kts, but low level curvature in hodographs is quite notable. Large scale forcing for ascent still appears to be lacking, with the upper level short wave not expected to arrive until late Friday night, but any remnant MCV from previous overnight convection could provide some lift for storm development. If surface based storms are able to develop, the main threats would be damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Scattered shower and storm chances will continue through Friday night, as a LLJ ramps up ahead of the cold front. While the bulk of the severe threat should end shortly after sunset, a strong elevated storm or two, capable for gusty winds and hail, can't be ruled out.

Saturday and Beyond...

Off and on precipitation chances will continue through the middle of next week, as a series of shortwaves approach from the west ahead of the next upper level trough. The best chance for rain being Saturday night into Sunday over far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Cooler temperatures can be expected behind the front for the weekend and into next week. Highs on Saturday will drop back to the 70s and 80s. By Sunday, most locations won't make it out of the 60s. Crisp, cooler fall temperatures continue through at least Wednesday, before a ridge develops out west, and brings slightly warmer air back into the central plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon under mostly clear skies. Low clouds have retreated north for the day, but we'll see them spread back south this evening, with cigs around 700 ft moving back into KOFK around 05-07Z. Meanwhile, we'll be watching storms forecast to develop late this afternoon and evening, starting around 23Z. Confidence is low in where these storms will initiate and track due to uncertainty in where the frontal boundary will stall, but there is a window from 00-04Z where storms could impact KLNK or KOMA. We'll see another more widespread round of showers overnight with a few embedded thunderstorms, forecast to reach the terminals around 09-12Z with winds shifting to northerly as this finally pushes the front through the terminals. There is a 20% chance we see MVFR cigs move into KOMA toward the end of the TAF period (17-18Z), as the southern edge of the low cloud shield north could try and push far enough south.

Low-level wind shear also expected to impact KOMA and KLNK late this evening through around 07Z as southwesterly winds increase just off the surface along the front. This goes away as stronger winds aloft shift off to the east around 06-07Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.