textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog this morning, mainly near and west of a line from Norfolk to Lincoln. Visibility could drop below 1/2 mile with a few slick spots.

- Periodic, low precipitation chances (15-30%) tonight through early Wednesday. A wintry mix could fall at times, but is currently favored to remain light with little to no impact.

- Mild temperatures stick around this week, with highs in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday and 40s and 50s from Thursday through Sunday. These warmer temperatures could allow river ice to break up and move, increasing the risk of ice jams.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Some lingering low clouds early this morning were slowly, but surely pushing east with surface and mid-level ridging starting to lead to mostly clear skies and light winds across most of eastern NE as of 2 AM. As a result, some patchy fog was starting to develop and become visible via satellite, with a few observation sites reporting at least small visibility reductions. That said, latest short term guidance continues to trend toward less fog development into the early morning hours, with HREF suggesting only spotty 20-40% chances of getting under 1/2 mile visibility. However, anything that does develop could lead to some patchy slick spots on roads as temperatures are well below freezing where we have cleared out. Otherwise, fog should dissipate by mid-morning though some lingering low clouds and incoming mid and high clouds will keep us cooler than what we saw yesterday, with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

For tonight through Wednesday, guidance continues to suggest we'll have some precip chances as a few bits of shortwave energy pass through/near the area. The first is currently spinning over eastern MT and should approach the SD/NE border by this evening with light precip not far behind. Model soundings suggest snow and/or freezing drizzle with eventual loss of in- cloud ice. Soundings also show we may go in and out of saturation, so anything that does fall is expected to be quite light and for the most part, unimpactful (10- 20% chance of a dusting of snow/glaze of ice). Precip should come to an end Tuesday morning with afternoon temperatures expected to top out in the 30s area-wide.

The second wave and associated precip look to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday, though the strongest forcing and higher precip chances look to remain just to our west. Still, many solutions still clip our area with some light precip, giving us a 15-30% chance. Forecast thermodynamic profiles look similar to those of tonight with in-cloud ice coming and going and leading to some snow and/or freezing drizzle. Once again, near-surface levels may struggle to saturate, so anything that does fall in our area should be light with relatively no impact. Any precip should exit by late Wednesday morning with temperatures maybe a few degrees warmer than those on Tuesday.

By Thursday, upper level ridging over the western CONUS will start to edge a little farther east with low level westerly flow helping to usher in much warmer temperatures. Expect highs in the 50s for most of the area. By Friday morning, a surface cold front will start to push into the area (guidance currently favors a dry passage), though temperatures look to remain mild into the weekend, with highs remaining in the 40s to lower 50s. These continued warmer temperatures could start to lead to some ice breakup and movement in area rivers, increasing the threat of ice jams. However, night time lows look to remain below freezing most nights, which should slow things down a little bit.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Patchy fog has developed across central and northeast Nebraska and should continue to expand through mid-morning. Guidance favors IFR visibility staying west of OFK and LNK, though still expect some periods of MVFR at OFK. To the east, an MVFR deck remains over OMA and while it should edge east early in the period, expect further southward development by late morning early afternoon, with SCT to BKN clouds around 2500-3500 ft AGL. Winds will remain light through the period, southeasterly during the day and westerly to northwesterly at OFK/LNK and easterly at OMA this evening and overnight. Guidance does show some light snow/patchy freezing drizzle potential late in the period, but confidence is too low to include at this time (15-20% chance).

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.