textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are possible Friday and Saturday, with Saturday posing the greatest risk for wind across Nebraska and Iowa.

- Temperatures trend warmer going into the weekend. Seasonably warm weather expected over the weekend.

- Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north, with only small amount reaching the surface.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the persistent trough that had been across the central CONUS continuing to weaken while a shortwave moving across Nebraska spurs on convection to its southeast in Kansas and Missouri. Dreary conditions have been gradually easing up with less and less surface observations coming in with lowered visibility. Rain chances for the rest of the day should stay well to the northwest, with our best bet coming from an isolated shower or storm developing along a weak boundary in western NE/SD drifting into the area after 9 PM. Otherwise, it'll be a day to watch the edges of low cloud cover slowly erode while highs reach the lower 80s (or near 90 in northeast Nebraska).

Showers and storms return to the forecast Friday, manifesting in one of the two following scenarios: 1) Elevated storms develop along the SD/IA/MN border region that travel along the western Iowa border through 2 PM; or 2) Storms wait until 2-4 PM to develop along a front before clearing the area to the south by 10 PM.

For scenario 1 (anchored by the HRRR), modest shear and instability are set up along the nose of the low-level wind fields during the pre-dawn hours, with that nosing/impinging of the front serving as the forcing. Once the storms get going, they would be able to develop some semblance of a cold pool that would bring 40+ mph gusts and some hail with them as they push southward along the border through the morning where a MUCAPE gradient will be set up. Scenario 2 seems to pose the greater risk for severe weather (currently highlighted in a level 1 risk out of 5), where greater access to large-scale instability and to the surface exists for more organized outflow to develop. This scenario would also have a wider affected area due to the frontal placement being across south-central Nebraska into central Iowa. A couple of the HREF members do output gusts in excess of 50 kts (NAM Nest and FV3), with hail larger than quarters also being possible. Storms should be progressive enough to avoid any flooding concerns based on the latest model output.

Saturday and Beyond:

Depending on what unfolds on Friday, another round or two of severe weather is on the menu for the forecast area Saturday. An ingredients-based approach to the forecast draws the attention quickly to a reservoir of instability arcing from northwest Nebraska down to the south-central portion of the state near the Kansas border region. A mid-level shortwave with slightly enhanced mid- upper flow will move across the area, providing enhanced shear to go along with sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates for severe- intensity storms, it'll just be a matter of when they develop. Significant spread continues to exist with the development of the surface fields temperature-wise Saturday, but regardless a gradient in the surface fields will develop and strengthen over the course of the day. Either convergence along that gradient or the aforementioned shortwave will be the catalyst for storm development, with that activity working with the northwesterly steering flow to move across the area. Early peeks at the extended CAMs indicate elevated storms may be able to develop as early as 7 AM, while any delay in activity into the later morning/afternoon hours would increase the overall ceiling for any MCS that would occur. With deeper-shear vectors aligning with the instability gradient, a healthier and prolonged wind threat seems possible. Highs in tho upper 80s to low 90s are on tap, with the caveat being that storms could some variance based on the time of day they move through.

Beyond Saturday we continue to see ourselves on the northeastern edge of the broader ridging pattern centered to the west. We'll see highs trend warmer, but still relatively close to normal for this time of year. A persistent frontal zone will be oriented near to just northwest of the area, keeping rain and a stray strong storm or two a low-end possibility.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A scattered strocumulous deck continues across eastern Nebraska this evening with KLNK bouncing in an out of MVFR ceilings. The trend is for these clouds to diminish this evening. There is a decent signal for IFR ceilings to redevelop after 06Z tonight, but there will probably be just enough wind to limit widespread fog formation and keep the visibility from crashing. The lower ceilings and potential for at least some visibility resitriction will likely linger at KOMA through the morning push. There is also an outside shot at a shower or rumble of thunder at KOMA in the morning, but confidence is too low for the TAF at this time.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.