textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Frigid wind chills continue this morning, ranging from 5 to 20 degrees below zero. Afternoon highs are expected to peak in the 20s.

- Temperatures briefly rebound Tuesday through Thursday with highs in the 30s and low 40s.

- Another surge of arctic air moves in Friday into the weekend, bringing highs back down into the single digits and teens.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Today...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this morning depict a broad mid- to upper-level trough over the east-central CONUS, placing the region beneath persistent northwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave disturbance that pivoted through the northern Plains over the past 24 hours drove a cold front through the area, ushering in a cold arctic airmass accompanied by gusty winds.

Low temperatures this morning remain in the positive single digits, while lingering northwesterly winds gusts of 25-35 mph are producing wind chills ranging from 5 to 20 degrees below zero. Surface high pressure will push into the area this afternoon, leading to diminishing winds. Despite the lighter winds, continued CAA will keep afternoon high temperatures limited to the 20s.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Another cold start is expected Tuesday morning, with lows generally in the single digits to around 12 degrees across southeast Nebraska. Wind chills will range from the positive single digits to a few degrees below zero. Temperatures will rebound during the day Tuesday, with highs returning closer to seasonal norms. Generally, high in the 30s to low 40s are expected from Tuesday through Thursday as northwesterly flow aloft persists, supporting dry and quiet conditions.

The only notable precipitation chance during the work week arrives late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a shortwave disturbance pivots through the northern Plains and pushes a cold front across the area. Forcing for ascent with this system will remain largely displaced to our north and east, limiting precipitation potential locally. However, a brief period of light precipitation cannot be ruled out across portions of northeast Nebraska, where PoPs currently peak around 15%. Any snowfall accumulations will be minimal, with both GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS guidance keeping probabilities of snowfall exceeding one inch well north of the area. A secondary cold front pushing through Wednesday will leave gusty winds in its wake, with northwesterly gusts currently forecasted in the 25-35 mph range.

Friday and Beyond...

A notable pattern change is expected late in the work week into the weekend as a deepening mid- to upper-level low lifts into Manitoba/Ontario, driving another surge of arctic air southward into the region. High temperatures are forecast to fall into the single digits and teens on Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will be quite cold, generally in the positive and negative single digits.

Snow chances return this weekend as the area becomes positioned between the aforementioned Canadian low and a separate mid-level trough the the south. Long-range guidance continues to show considerable spread in the interaction and placement of these systems, limiting forecast confidence at this time. As a result, PoPs remain capped at 15-30% Saturday into Sunday. Cold conditions are expected to linger into at least early next week. The CPC 6-10 day outlook, valid January 24-28, indicates a 70-90% probability of below-average temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 410 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. Northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 kts will gradually calm through the morning. Winds are expected to dip below 12 kts at all terminals by 13-16Z. A few lingering low-level clouds will continue to break up this morning. Winds will be calm and quite variable this evening into the overnight period, briefly backing to southerly before quickly veering to northerly. Low to mid level cloud cover will increase this evening around FL070-120.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.