textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temps climb another few degrees for Monday as elevated wildfire smoke continues to produce hazy skies.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night into Tuesday and linger through at least Wednesday.

- Mild temperatures expected to return Wednesday with another warming trend likely toward the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

It's another mostly clear evening with temperatures in the 70s as of 10pm. Fog from early this morning is not expected to repeat tonight due to winds persisting out of the south around 5 to 15 mph. If we were to see anything it would be in sheltered areas more likely in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa where winds are weakest. Temperatures forecast to fall into the mid 60s by daybreak.

Looking at satellite and the upper-level pattern, we see the ridge centered over the Northern Plains with a broad trough over the Ohio River Vally stretching down into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Out to the northwest we have another broad trough over the Canadian Rockies that will play a role in helping to squash down the ridge over the Northern Plains over the next few days.

Monday will be very similar to today. We'll see strengthening southerly flow ramping up ahead of the deepening area of low pressure across the western Dakotas and Nebraska Panhandle. This will help temperatures warm a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the upper 80s across southwest Iowa and lower 90s for eastern Nebraska. Monday evening a fully developed frontal boundary will trigger showers and storms across central Nebraska into northeast South Dakota. As the front approaches through the evening we see increased elevated instability in the region of pooling moisture to our west. As the front arrives, though, hi- res guidance really eats away at the amount of instability with the best environment in our area being around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE over northeast Nebraska between 05-10Z. Bulk shear around that time stays insignificant until you get behind the cold front lending toward little-to-no severe threat across our area. Any stronger storms approaching should decay as they arrive. Showers and storms should arrive around midnight or just after, scattered in nature with more widespread showers and storms likely not arriving until closer to midday Tuesday.

The cold front drops south but stalls across our area on Tuesday acting as a focus for increased moisture through the afternoon. Model guidance really doesn't show much of a trigger, but the HRRR really blows up along the boundary during the afternoon. May be a case of the HRRR overconvecting. In any case, if storms were to get going during the afternoon, hodographs show modest, but not insignificant amount of shear. Bulk shear values of 35-40kt with 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This could organize a few stronger storms, but again, we may not have enough forcing to get storms really going during the afternoon. Better chances look to be as a shortwave skirts us to our north potentially triggering some elevated storms overnight along the frontal boundary. Model soundings show winds are fairly unidirectional through the unstable layer at this time indicating not a significant severe threat with these storms.

The forecast beyond Tuesday will greatly depend on how storms shift the surface boundary Tuesday afternoon and overnight. Areas north of the front starting Tuesday will see the Canadian High keep temperatures fairly cool for this time of year with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. This remains true for areas north of the front on Wednesday, which likely will be over most of our area as the front should push south of the Nebraska-Kansas state line for Wednesday. Broad troughing over the Central US as well as a jet streak positioned from southern Idaho east through Wyoming and Nebraska will lend toward additional shortwaves bringing more chances for showers and storms along and north of this frontal boundary through the day on Wednesday. Shouldn't be a complete wash-out all day, but do think many across our area will see at least some rainfall. We expect a swath of heavier amounts around 1.5 to 2 inches just north of the frontal boundary, right now looking to be near the I-80 corridor from around Lincoln to Omaha to Atlantic, IA. Amounts drop off north and south with around a tenth of an inch or less north around Antelope County east through Monona as well as a tenth to a quarter of an inch in far southeast Nebraska and near the Missouri state line in Iowa.

Thursday we should see the trough dig far enough south to push rain chances down into Kansas and Missouri. With the Canadian High still in place, temperatures will remain mild, though clearer skies should allow temperatures to warm into the low 80s. Smoke could be a concern Thursday as subsidence from the high centered across our area may allow it to sink toward the ground, but we won't have a good idea of the extent until hi-res guidance comes out 36-48 hours in advance.

The forecast toward the end of the week becomes more difficult as the ridge over the Desert Southwest fights to build back up while an active troughing pattern over the PacNW fights it back down. Models diverge significantly in the details including any potential rain chances for our area, but the general trend is for temperatures to climb back into the upper 80s on Friday and low 90s for the weekend as that ridge expands eastward over the Central and Southern Plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. Southerly winds will increase by mid-morning, with gusts of 22-25 kts. Skies may be a bit hazy with some smoke well aloft, but do not anticipate any flight condition impacts. Mid- and upper-level cloud cover will increase in the final few hours of the forecast period, with rain chances filtering in afterwards.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.