textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming through the work week with widespread 80s, followed by some 90s by Thursday/Friday.

- Warm and breezy conditions could lead to increased fire danger on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

- Mostly dry this week, with only small rain chances Monday night/Tuesday (10%) and hit and miss chances Thursday into the weekend (15-30%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Early afternoon analysis showed some weak shortwave energy sliding through the area and leading to some increasing cloud cover. Could eventually see a few sprinkles out of these clouds as we go through the afternoon, but very dry low levels, cloud bases at 9000-10000 ft, and only a shallow cloud layer per model soundings suggest those would be few and far between. Otherwise, temperatures as of noon were mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

For the week ahead, expect a general warming trend as upper level ridging over the western CONUS gradually edges eastward and we see occasional punches of southerly low level flow. Expect mostly highs in the 80s through Wednesday before some 90s start to creep in by Thursday and last into the weekend. Despite the aforementioned southerly flow at times, moisture will remain limited, with just enough of a westerly component of the wind to keep higher dewpoints to our east. As a result, we'll see daily minimum RH values in the teens and 20 which will yield some fire weather concerns in areas with dry fuels (i.e. northeast NE) on days when we're a bit breezier. Latest guidance would suggest our highest potential for meeting Red Flag Warning criteria would be on Tuesday and Thursday when EPS guidance gives a 40-60 percent chance and a 80-90+ percent of exceeding 30 mph gusts, respectively. Monday will also be a touch breezy, with model soundings showing some 25+ kt winds at the top of the mixed layer, though guidance is in relatively good agreement that we will struggle to reach 30 mph gusts at the surface.

Rain chances through the week remain fairly low and those we do have look like they'll be pretty light if we get anything. The first chances will be Monday night into early Tuesday as a shortwave trough and surface low push southeast out of Canada and into MN. This will drag a cold front through the area with a few pieces of guidance hinting at some light QPF clipping northeast NE, but with such little moisture for the front to work with, think it will be tough to see much more than sprinkles, so keeping precip chances under 10% with higher chances being to our northeast and closer to the low. By Thursday, guidance suggests we may start to see a little bit better moisture return ahead of several bits of shortwave energy that are progged to impact us through the weekend. Currently the highest chances are Thursday evening/night and Saturday evening/night (20-30%). That said, overall forecast confidence is rather low as there's quite a bit of spread in timing and strength of these various waves. Should also note that the various machine learning severe weather outlook algorithms do show at least 5-15% chances for severe storms Thursday through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Northwesterly winds with some mid-level clouds and a few sprinkles embedded within are in place this evening, with VFR conditions expected to stick through the next 24 hours. Those winds will become increasingly variable over the next few hours, as a boundary lingers in the area. We've tried to give the longer-lived directions in the TAF, but expect directions to vary at times while staying under 5 kts. Southeasterly to southwesterly winds will take over by the end of the morning hours, with wind gusts building into the area from the northwest to 20-25 kts during the afternoon hours and early evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.