textproduct: Omaha/Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Stretch of hot weather will last through at least the upcoming week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.
- Expect occasional morning patchy fog through this week.
- Rain chances remain below 5% through Friday.
LONGER RANGE
The heat lingers into the weekend with highs jumping another three degrees or so, leaving actual maximums in the middle- to upper 90s and heat indices just another degree or two higher. Each days heat indices are falling shy of the 105F threshold for a heat advisory. NMB's probabilities of hitting that threshold (105 heat index) is highest in the Omaha metro and along the SD border.
Probability of hitting 105 heat index in Omaha: Friday: 8% Saturday: 15% Sunday: 25% Monday: 8%
It's worth noting that these numbers have slipped over the past 24 hours. Overnight lows are also a concern as Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday night all keep lows in the mid-70s. This threshold brings a marked increase in heat related illnesses, especially in urban areas over consecutive days.
Dry weather continues, too. With the ridge in control, the 'ring of fire' keeps convection firing mostly over the Rockies and the Canadian border.
Are you looking for a hints as to when the heat will break? The Canadian and GFS bring a cold front through the area on Saturday night, leaving highs in the 80s on Sunday. The EC brings it in a little later on Sunday, mostly affecting Monday's highs. This brings about a 10% chance of rain... if you're desperate. The NBM's temps are probably a bit high for Sunday and Monday, but I've left them unchanged for now.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Primarily VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites. Southeasterly winds will decrease after 00Z this evening, remaining at speeds of 5-10 kts overnight and into Tuesday. Some patchy fog may develop across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa late tonight into early Tuesday morning. While patchy MVFR conditions could creep into the KOMA area tomorrow morning, it appears unlikely (<30% chance) at this time.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None. IA...None.
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