textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- On and off showers and drizzle continue, though any precipitation this Halloween evening looks to remain very light. Any lingering showers or drizzle should exit the region on Sunday.

- A strong weather system moves into the region early next week, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Periods of heavy rain are possible. A severe weather threat can't ne ruled out across far southeast Nebraska.

- Highs in the 50s and lingering rain chances remain in the forecast through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows deep troughing centered along and just west of the Pacific Coast, helping to prop up ridging across the rest of the CONUS that is interrupted by a negatively- tilting shortwave trough pushing through the Central Plains. It's that shortwave trough that is driving our dreary day so far, with largely stratiform rainfall and drizzle wetting sidewalks that will be buzzing with foot traffic later this evening. Light rain and drizzle chances continue through the afternoon and evening, with any total amounts of rainfall expected to be very low (less than 0.1"), allowing folks to be undeterred as long as an umbrella or rain coat are brought along. Short-term CAMs do depict a stray shower or two around sunset, staying limited in coverage by providing a slight chance for a rumble of thunder (5-10% chance). Temperatures before sunset will be in the mid-to-low 60s, and they should only slowly cool overnight as clouds insulate the surface. Temperatures only drop into the 50s overnight, staying well above our normal for this time of year (around 37 degrees).

Dreary and drizzly conditions are set to stick around tomorrow, with the overall coverage of light rain and mist being lower than this afternoon/evening. An increased mass response in anticipation of the trough to the west will help bump temperatures into the mid-to-upper 60s, with warm air advection helping to create those light precipitation chances. Later in the evening, rain chances increase as deep lift builds in from the southwest ahead the main trough. Increasingly gusty winds also look to arrive, sending speeds into the 25-35 mph range (for gusts) out of the south-southeast overnight heading into Monday.

Monday and Beyond:

By Monday morning, the main story of the weather week arrive as a surface low takes shape over northeast Colorado, backed up by the deep longwave troughing that neutrally tilts before sending the main surface low northeast through the forecast area. As it does so, rain and storm chances also move through, including potentially strong ones across far southeast Nebraska into eastern Kansas where shear values are maximized along the southwest-to-northeast oriented Pacific front. Farther north, instability quickly drops off but not to zero, leaving lone rumbles of thunder possible to interrupt the soothing rain sounds that will accompany the system's passing. It's at this point where things start to diverge in terms of of the evolution of the ejecting system.

It's looking increasingly likely that despite being initially dry- slotted, the main upper low remains farther to the south (with the the ECMWF and AI-GFS), allowing the deformation band to stick around well into and potentially through Tuesday compared to the GFS. Highs on the backside of this system will take a hit back into the 50s (potentially upper 40s for northeast Nebraska), and regardless of the evolution of the system, we'll be dealing with very gusty winds that top out in the 35-45 mph range Tuesday into Wednesday out of the northwest. Similar if not slightly warmer temperatures hang around for the remaining portion of the week, as largely zonal mid/upper flow taking us into the weekend, interrupted by a compact shortwave trough translating eastward Thursday into Friday. Some kind of light rainfall seems likely with its passage by due to its compact nature, those chances will remain low until better agreement aligns.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR conditions are in places this afternoon with a few spots of light rain and drizzle spotting the radar, bringing ceilings briefly to MVFR conditions where they occur. Expect VFR conditions to be the story for the afternoon with MVFR conditions building in overnight as southeasterly winds continue. The heaviest drizzle overnight is expected to develop west of KOFK and KLNK, only grazing KOFK with IFR ceilings and visibility restrictions to 6SM before conditions improve late tomorrow morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.