textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A rain-snow mix is possible (30-50% PoPs) late tonight into Monday morning across portions of northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa with little to no accumulation expected.

- Rain is expected to mix with and then change over to all snow across portions of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some 1-3" accumulations appear possible with a 40-60% chance of slippery roads during the Tuesday morning commute.

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and storm chances from Wednesday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Tonight through Tuesday:

A short-wave trough over northern MN and northwest Ontario this afternoon will continue southeast into the upper Great Lakes with an associated surface cold front moving through the area tonight. Strengthening frontogenesis within the post-frontal environment will support a narrow band of light precipitation late tonight into Monday across portions of southeast SD, northeast NE, and northwest IA. There is some model variability in exactly where the band will setup with the highest PoPs of 30-50% across our northern counties. Forecast soundings valid around sunrise Monday morning indicate near-ground temperature profiles supportive of a rain- snow mix with some question as to whether a complete change over to light snow will occur. Either way, deep-layer saturation is expected to be somewhat transient with little to no snow accumulation expected.

Periods of light rain remain possible on Monday afternoon, especially in far eastern NE and southwest IA, with highs in the 40s to low/mid 50s.

On Monday night into Tuesday morning, strengthening low/mid- level frontogenesis will contribute to the organization of a more intense precipitation band from portions of eastern NE into northern MO (50-70% PoPs). Precipitation will likely start out as rain before transitioning to a rain-snow mix and then to all snow. Forecast soundings indicate a relatively long duration of deep-layer saturation with upward vertical motion extending into the dendritic-growth zone. In addition, model cross sections suggest the presence of weak convective instability within the 700-500-mb layer, which would enhance precipitation rates. The various ensemble systems have trended toward greater snowfall potential with generally a 60-80% chance of an inch or more accumulations, and a 10-30% chance of three-inch or more accumulations. The exact location of the snow band remains uncertain; however, area residents should be prepared for a few slippery roads during the Tuesday morning commute (40-60% chance).

Continued warm advection and the glancing influence of a weak, mid- level disturbance will maintain a chance of rain (30-50% PoPs) Tuesday afternoon, especially along and to the north of a warm front lifting north into the area. High temperatures will range from mid 40s in our northern counties to upper 50s to low 60s in the southwest part of our area, to the south of the warm front.

Tuesday night through Saturday:

The global models have trended south in the track of a significant mid-level trough, which is forecast to move along the U.S./Canadian border in the Tuesday night-Wednesday night timeframe. An associated surface low is expected to move east along the SD/NE border Tuesday night with a trailing cold front moving through the mid-MO Valley on Wednesday. Steepening lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints increasing through the 40s to around 50 ahead of front will contribute to weak instability and potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night. Highest PoPs of 40-70% are indicated Wednesday night.

A low-level jet is forecast to persist across the pre-frontal warm sector Wednesday, resulting in strong southwest winds with gusts up to 35 mph. Temperatures will be warmer than previous days with highs in the 60s to low 70s. While winds will be weaker behind the front, relative humidity is forecast to fall into the 25-30% range in northeast NE Wednesday afternoon, leading to very high fire danger.

The surface front is forecast to stall across KS and MO on Thursday and Friday beneath a quasi-zonal, mid-level flow regime. Persistent warm advection to the north of the boundary in conjunction with weak disturbances passing near and to the north of the area will support continued shower and isolated thunderstorm chances, the highest of which will be across southeast NE and southwest IA. Daytime temperatures will be a bit cooler (compared to Wednesday) with readings in the 50s and 60s.

By Saturday, there is some model signal that the front may move north back into the area, leading to continued shower and thunderstorm chances as well as warm temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

Various machine-learning guidance shows an increasing chance of at least isolated severe-weather potential from Friday into the weekend, so that is something we will be keeping an eye on.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period with increasing mid/high-level cloudiness tonight into Monday morning. Northwest winds of 11-13 kt with gusts of 18-22 kt this afternoon diminish by 06/00z. The models indicate the development of a light precipitation band late tonight into Monday morning with the best potential for that occurrence being to the north of the terminal locations.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.