textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm today with highs in the mid 50s to around 60F west of the Missouri River, and low 50s east.

- 15% chance for light rain across our far west Tuesday. 10 to 14% chance for some sprinkles in eastern Nebraska Tuesday. Gusty northwest winds may lead to localized areas of very high fire danger.

- Temperatures cool Wednesday (low to mid 30s) with gusty winds lingering. 45 to 50% chance for wind gusts greater than 45 mph in far northeast Nebraska Friday. 20 to 50% chance for precipitation late Thursday into Friday, especially across northeast Nebraska into west central Iowa.

LONG TERM

/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Sfc high pressure will work its way into the area by Wednesday afternoon. Lingering moisture and forcing ahead of the main sfc high may result in sprinkles/flurries in the morning hours over our far west (~15% chance), largely tapering off in the afternoon. 20 to 25 mph northerly winds with gusts up to 35 mph will persist through at least the afternoon hours, subsiding with the approaching sfc high. Highs Wednesday cool to the low to mid 30s for most locations.

Temperatures rebound for Thursday with highs in the 40s to near 50F in eastern Nebraska, and cooler highs in the mid 30s expected in western Iowa. A series of waves eject from south central Canada southeast into the Plains, with sfc cyclogenesis eventually occurring. A front associated with the disturbance pushes through resulting in gusty winds. Winds really ramp up though late Thursday into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens and a strong 50 to 60 kt jet rounds the backside of the H8 low. NBM currently has widespread northwest gusts of 35 to 40 mph, with isolated 45 to 50 mph gusts in far northeast Nebraska. Latest LREF ensembles (EPS) suggest a 45 to 50% probability of wind gusts greater than 45 mph, primarily over our far western areas where the H8 jet core is strongest.

The other concern is the chance for snowfall, primarily for areas north of Interstate 80 late Thursday into Friday. For this forecast update, NBM currently has PoPs of 20 to 50% for snow, with the highest chances in far northeast Nebraska into west central Iowa. Latest deterministic guidance from the GFS and Canadian global models show QPF on the backside of the sfc low entering a large portion of the forecast area Friday, while the ECMWF run grazes our far north and east. LREF guidance however suggests that the bulk of any QPF remains to our north and east. At this time, probabilities for a 1/2 inch of snow or greater remain at 25 to 30% across our far north and east but significantly taper of with southwestward extent. If snow does manage to develop, certainly could see extremely poor visibilities with the strong wind gusts.

Temperatures cool Saturday to the 20s and 30s on the back side of the sfc low with dry conditions currently forecast. Some improvement is seen for Sunday with highs near 40F in the far west while cooler temperatures are seen in the 20s and 30s for the rest of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions are observed at all terminals this morning. These conditions will persist for the duration of the TAF cycle with only mid to high level cloudiness. Winds will remain under 12 kts for most of the period, becoming gusty at KOFK by 09z. Low level wind shear develops at KOFK and KOMA late in the TAF period, with low confidence in southeastward extent toward KLNK.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.