textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Stretch of hot weather will last through at least the upcoming week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Expect occasional morning patchy fog through this week.

- Rain chances remain below 5% through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Quiet and warm across the region early this afternoon as large scale upper level ridging continued to build into the area. Temperatures as of 1 PM were in the mid to upper 80s.

The ridge will remain the main weather player for us for the upcoming week with high temperatures gradually climbing each day. Expect widespread 90s by Tuesday with mid and upper 90s by Thursday and Friday when warmer air aloft to our north starts to creep south. It's still looking like the main plume of 70+ degree dewpoints will remain to our east with Gulf moisture being held up to our south. However, guidance is probably under-doing dewpoints for us, with corn evapotranspiration likely to play a very large role through the week. As such, expect dewpoints to steadily remain in the mid to upper 60s for most, with a few localized 70 degree readings, especially as you go east. As it stands, expect heat indices to approach 100 by Wednesday, with a few spots exceeding that number by Thursday and Friday when the aforementioned warmer air gets here. Should dewpoints end up higher than forecast, a few spots may make a run at heat advisory criteria (30-50% chance), but we'll see how things trend to start the week.

This pattern also means next to no rain chances through the week barring a random pop-up storm or maybe a rogue remnant MCV sliding through the area. Right now, chances remain below 5% through Friday. By the weekend, guidance begins to hint at some shortwave energy rounding the ridge through the Dakotas and possibly pushing a surface boundary and some precip into our area. Highest chances look to stay to our north, closer to the wave, but consensus gives us a 15-20% chance by Sunday afternoon/evening. Obviously still a lot of time between now and then so we'll see how things trend.

The last thing to mention is fog potential like we've seen the last couple days. Given the clear skies, somewhat light winds, and somewhat humid airmass, we could see continued patchy fog development during the morning hours. However, it's worth noting that guidance does keep a bit of a surface pressure gradient over us with the surface high centered to our east. In addition, model soundings show winds aloft staying up a bit, so any fog development that we do get would likely be pretty patchy and favored to be in river valleys and low-lying areas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with southeasterly winds in place across much of the area along with a few areas of shallow clouds at FL045-050. Overnight, winds will quiet down again but only slightly so, making widespread fog development less likely than it has been over the last couple of nights. As of now, the most likely areas of fog appear to be across far southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and into northwestern Missouri.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.