textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer weather returns Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Dry conditions and some gusty winds may result in some elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions on Sunday; however, fuels may be the limiting factor.

- Precipitation chances return to the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday as our next storm system rolls through.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Quieter weather is in store for the next couple of days as yesterday's storm system slides west over central and eastern Iowa this afternoon. Visible satellite shows clouds progressing out of western Iowa. Highs were brought down a little to account for lingering cloud cover over western Iowa/eastern Nebraska, with many places still expecting to see 40s and even some 50s. Lows tonight will fall into the 30s.

Zonal flow sets up over the region Sunday, with warmer weather returning. Expect a gorgeous but breezy day with highs topping out in the mid-60s to mid-70s. West/west-southwest winds will gust to around 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Some of the stronger gusts will be co-located with relative humidity values in the mid-20s. Recent precipitation may play a factor in tamping down potential fire weather concerns. While we are not currently anticipating the need for fire weather headlines at this time, this will be something to keep an eye on should temps/dewpoints over-achieve tomorrow afternoon.

Right now, Monday is shaping up to be a really nice day for early March. Split flow to our west keeps the zonal pattern going over our area, while the southern split has a h5 cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula and high pressure over the Gulf. Forecasted highs are currently in the low to mid-70s for most locations. Wouldn't be surprised if models continue to bring temperatures up over the next few model runs. Despite RH values in the mid-20s to mid-30s for many areas, lighter winds are expected which would limit potential fire weather concerns.

Chances for precipitation return to the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. The cutoff low is projected to shift east over the western Texas panhandle Tuesday afternoon before lifting to the northeast overnight. Models are still in quite a bit of disagreement with the GFS maintaining a low into southwestern Kansas, while the ECMWF opens things up quicker and keeps the disturbance further south in Oklahoma and Texas. The NBM appears to be latching onto the GFS solution of bringing the precipitation further north. At this point in time, wouldn't be surprised if the system does track a bit further south, falling more in line with the ECMWF. The northern split in the pattern brings a trough into the Great Plains on Wednesday, trying to push southward into Kansas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 508 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with only a few high-level clouds. Southwest winds of 8-12 kt persist overnight with LLWS developing at all three terminal locations. Winds continue from the southwest Sunday with gusts of 18-25 kt likely during the afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.