textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend upwards through the remainder of the week.

- Rain and snow chances (40-60%) return Wednesday afternoon/evening, with some snow mixing in late across far northeast Nebraska and western Iowa.

- Highs continue climbing through the work week, peaking Friday in the 60s before additional shots at precipitation move through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a deep mid/upper trough continuing to spin over New England, while board ridging takes further hold across the western two thirds. Stout high pressure extends from Minnesota down into eastern Texas at the surface, with a handful of weaker boundaries separating the cold air in place from warmer, downsloping conditions from the west. Today starts our climb out of the ice box in terms of high temperatures. Residual snowpack has proven to be stubborn in tandem with the cold air ushered in from the late week activity, but the aforementioned ridge that is moving eastward will help build low-level thermal ridging to the west. Temperatures over the snowpack versus those just outside vary by as much as 9 degrees today, with that contrast expected to be only stronger tomorrow as highs climb over 50 degrees for most of the area while 40s seem more likely where the most snow fell. In addition to the temperatures being affected, we'll be evaporating quite a bit of moisture into the boundary layer, and fog potential will increase Tuesday night onward, especially as any wind shifts move through.

Wednesday and Beyond:

By Wednesday, our mid/upper pattern will flatten as the front end of a broad shortwave moves through the northwesterly flow. At the surface, low pressure will deepen to the west and shoot southeast, eventually favoring a low center over eastern Missouri. As this occurs, very strong warm air advection will work with the upper level vorticity advection to result in what looks to be meager for most of the area. Soundings vary quite a bit from model to model, with a mix of rain and snow looking most likely with some chance for some freezing onto surfaces as we cool overnight. Areas with rain will have enough warmth in the low levels to melt snow, but as you approach and push into South Dakota, we could see up to half an inch. Chances for any precipitation move into northeast Nebraska mid-day Wednesday, lasting through midnight.

From there, west-northwesterly mid/upper flow is a lock through the weekend, with the main things to watch being a pair of shortwaves that could bring additional rain/snow chances Saturday and Sunday. Between Wednesday and then, highs will rebound from the 40s into the upper 60s Friday, putting us right back onto the warm side of normal for this time of year. As we warm, fire danger will also ramp up, with winds speeds making or breaking whether or not we'll push into extreme fire danger.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Quiet winds start out the TAF period, with a few clouds wafting over KOMA at FL020 that are being somewhat limited by the existing snowpack. Directions that start out southerly last for almost the entire TAF period, with directions beginning to shift northwesterly late tomorrow morning, with gusts over 20 kts beginning to work their way back into the KOFK vicinity. Tomorrow's warmer temperatures will try to work away snow on the ground, and overnights could see increasing fog risk beginning tomorrow night.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.