textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm again today with high to very high fire danger.

- Multiple rounds of precipitation possible Thursday through Saturday. Best chances (70-100% PoPs) Thursday. Storm-total snow ranging from a trace to upwards of 1.0-1.5" with minor travel impacts possible (20-30%).

- Temperatures rebound quickly next week, with highs returning to the 40s and 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Today:

Considerable sunshine and a westerly, downslope wind component contributed to warmer temperatures on Tuesday than previously expected. A similar scenario is likely to occur again today. Early morning IR satellite imagery depicts a considerable amount of lee-side cirrus across the northern Plains with the bulk of those clouds remaining to the north of the area. As such, this forecast update has trended toward the high side of guidance, indicating highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The record at Lincoln (65/2003) will be within reach. The unseasonable warmth combined with minimum relative humidity of 25 to 35 percent will result in high fire danger at many locations this afternoon. A small area of very high fire danger appears possible in portions of Butler, Seward, Saline, and Lancaster Counties.

Clouds increase tonight ahead of a mid-level disturbance moving into the southern Rockies. Temperatures will remain mild (30s to around 40), especially in southeast NE and southwest IA where the greatest cloud cover is expected.

Thursday through Saturday:

The models have trended slower and a little farther north with the shortwave trough moving through the region Thursday. That has led increased precipitation chances areawide with maximum PoPs of 70-100% in the southern half of the area. Weak elevated instability could support an embedded thunderstorm or two Thursday afternoon into evening in southeast NE and southwest IA.

Widespread clouds and areas of rain will limit the diurnal temperature range Thursday with highs in the 40s. The models suggest that the deformation axis attendant to the departing shortwave trough could linger into Thursday night when cooling temperatures would allow for a change over to light snow.

On Friday into Friday night, a subtropical-branch shortwave trough is forecast to move into KS/OK/TX with the northern extension of the associated precipitation shield glancing at least the southern part of the area (30-50% PoPs). While the forecast will indicate highs on Friday in the upper 30s to low 40s, there's a good chance they will stay in the 30s with the majority of any precipitation falling as light snow.

By Saturday, a mid-level jet streak is projected to move into the mid-MO Valley, contributing to the deepening of an upper low over the upper Midwest. Height falls/forcing for ascent attendant to the jet streak may contribute to a third round of more showery light snow. Model soundings indicate steepening low-level lapse rates and resultant weak destabilization coincident with blustery northwest winds with gusts of 30-35 mph. Any snow showers developing in that environment would be capable of a quick burst of moderate snow with considerably reduced visibility.

In regard to storm-total snow, the EPS indicates a 30-50% chance of 1"+ with generally lower probabilities indicated by the NBM, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble. The forecast through 6 AM Saturday will indicate a most-reasonable range from a trace to upwards of 1.0-1.5". Minor impacts to travel are possible due to slippery roads. Visibility reductions could be a concern Saturday within any snow showers that develop (as mentioned above).

Some locations could see upwards of 0.5-0.75" storm-total liquid equivalent, especially along and south of I-80.

Sunday through Tuesday:

The Midwest upper low (mentioned above) will continue east of the MS Valley Sunday with upstream heights building over the northern and central Plains. By late Monday into Tuesday, the models hint at another trough developing from the Great Lakes into mid-MS Valley. Highs in the 30s to low 40s Sunday are forecast to warm back into the 40s and 50s on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 514 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with a few high-level clouds today increasing overnight. Light south to southeast winds at 11z become southwest at 11-12 kt with gusts to 18-22 kt by 17-18z. Winds diminish below 12 kt by 22-23z. LLWS continues at KOFK until 17z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.