textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A storm system lifting out of northwest Kansas is still on track to bring showers and storms through 7 PM this evening, with the strongest of which being potentially severe (5-20% chance).

- As the system departs, areas of northeast Nebraska could see a few snowflakes mix in with snow through early Saturday, with no accumulations expected.

- Dry conditions set up Saturday evening through Monday morning.

- Another pattern shift brings additional better chances for precipitation to the region beginning Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a neutrally-tilting trough continuing its push into the Central Plains and helping serve as the catalyst storm potential today across southeast Nebraska into much of Iowa. Surface observations show a primary surface low situated over northeast Kansas, with a warm front extending east- northeast from it across northeastern Missouri. Over the course of the early afternoon, this surface low and an accompanying warm sector will clip far southeast Nebraska and travel into southwest Iowa. To the north of it, warm air advection powers light precipitation and drizzle across much of eastern Nebraska into Iowa, resulting in very light precipitation and visibilities as low as one mile. Temperatures will remain cool and largely in the upper 30s to low 40s for these areas, making for a dreary afternoon that misses out on any rumbles of thunder.

Focusing on the severe threat to the south and east, short-term model solutions all show southwest to northeast-oriented jet streaks, with speeds that ramp up quickly from the surface to the lowest 1-2 km of the atmosphere before the reaching their peak. Low- level curvature is quite favorable in hodographs, with the deep- layer shear being largely in line with the boundaries/forcing for ascent. Over the next two hours, areas just to the north of the surface low will have the help of that feature in addition to the warm air advection, helping kick start elevated parcels that could result in some small to marginally severe hail during the early afternoon hours, continuing north and to the east in stride with the surface low. Closer the the surface low and in the warm sector, a narrow window exists for surface-based storms to initiate in or move through the forecast area. These storms could initiate either along a prefrontal confluence boundary about one county to the east of the synoptic cold front, or on the cold front itself. These will be the storms to watch out for, and will be confined to areas southeast of a line from Lewiston, NE to Nodaway, IA. All three conventional severe hazards will be possible (hail, wind, and a tornado or two), with the tornado chances being dependent on how uninterrupted a storm can be in its process of intensifying.

With the warm sector quickly approaching, now through 7 PM is the window for any strong to severe storms to occur. While some convective activity is a near-certainty, there are a couple of failure modes for storms trying to reach severe levels. The main initiation point for storms in the CAMs favors the synoptic cold/Pacific front, and those storms may not keep up with the advancing front and shorten their lifespan. Another failure mode for severe storm potential would be higher-end shear and mid-upper dryness that could make for a hostile environment for what are expected to be somewhat narrow updrafts. With all of that in mind, the overall severe chances for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa is between 5-20%. Once 7 PM rolls around, the western edge of the warm sector will have swept through, clearing out precipitation aside from comma-head rain with a few snowflakes (that will melt) across northeast Nebraska into the overnight hours.

Saturday and Beyond:

The remainder of the forecast sees that upper pattern transition the trough to the east of the area, in favor of a split zonal flow pattern through the entire upcoming work week. It will be gusty tomorrow, with winds out of the northwest ramping up gusts to 35-40 mph before slowly decreasing in speed. The front half of the week will be marked by largely dry weather, before a warmer day Wednesday that will bring a shortwave trough and a transition to wetter conditions into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail into the evening hours as patchy drizzle and light rain showers traverse eastern Nebraska, primarily KOMA and KLNK. An uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected across far eastern Nebraska into the afternoon, with highest confidence in impacts at KOMA. A brief thunderstorm may pass by KLNK in the 18-20Z timeframe.

Precipitation will gradually clear from west to east into the early evening, along with a gradual increase in northerly winds. Have opted to keep ceilings towards the lower end of guidance this evening, with most locations improving only to MVFR conditions. Brief returns to VFR conditions will be possible this evening and overnight, though confidence is low in widespread improvement to VFR conditions until Saturday morning. Northwesterly wind gusts will increase to the 20-25 kt range into Saturday morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.