textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmth lingers through Wednesday, with highs in the 40s 50s for most of the area.

- Chances for light precipitation are increasing Wednesday night into early Thursday (30-50% chance) falling mainly as rain, though a brief transition to a rain/snow mix will be possible at end.

- Windy Thursday with gusts of at least 40-50+ mph out of the northwest. Lingering snow chances during the afternoon could join the wind and heavily reduce visibility in northeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features low-amplitude ridging over much of the Intermountain West, propped up by a deep system pushing moisture into the Pacific Northwest while northwesterly flow spills into the eastern half of the CONUS. Temperatures have taken quite the turnaround, soaring into the 40s for most of the area while areas of central and northeast Nebraska climb into the 50s and 60s. Visible satellite imagery has shown the quick erosion of the limited snow that had been sticking around, helping to increase surface moisture and signaling that chances for fog formation are climbing. Temperatures overnight should cool down into the 20s, which would be in the ball park for hitting crossover temperatures unless we can mix out some of the increased dewpoints. As of now, a comparison of observations, overnight lows, and model guidance points to northwest/western- central Iowa as the most likely area to fog up. The light winds overnight could allow for more efficient cooling and cold air draining and if that does happen, expect fog issues to expand southwest, especially into some of the major river valleys across Nebraska.

After a cool morning, above average temperatures are set to return for Tuesday alongside continued dry weather. Winds that had been largely out of the southwest will become northwesterly, as a surface trough is dragged through by a system well off to the north in Canada without much impact to temperatures. Highs should reach the 40s and 50s, and if today's over-performing temps have any bearing, there is likely upward potential for them as well.

Wednesday and Beyond:

The forecast's main chance for rain comes in the form of a stronger shortwave that dives eastward from the action affecting the Pacific Northwest Wednesday into Thursday. As it pushes through the Northern Plains, it deepens into a full-blown trough before quickly exiting the area to the east. Strong winds will join this system both in anticipation of it and with it's departure, with gusts Wednesday of 25-35 mph and higher speeds Thursday in the 40-50+ mph range Thursday. Dynamic temperature changes will also accompany this system, with high temperatures Wednesday in the upper 40s and 50s followed by highs at midnight early Thursday, that are then followed by temps that bottom out in the single digits and teens late Thursday. As far as precipitation goes, the NBM has been low-balling chances due to what is expected to be low QPF output, while ensemble members push chances to see anything closer to 40-70%. We're taking a measure approach to push things in that direction without going all the way, with most of that occurring late Wednesday in the form of rain. Some snow chances do linger into Thursday, but they should remain in the flurry variety, owing to steep low-level lapse rates behind the cold front and in the strong winds that have some potential to be snow showers. If they do occur alongside the strongest wind gusts, it may not take much to heavily reduce visibility despite the limited output of snow.

Once Thursday is in the rear view mirror we'll return to quasi-zonal flow aloft, with most of the action sticking to the northernmost tier or two of states through the weekend. Temperatures will respond to the northerly displacement of the jet stream and we will enjoy above-average temperatures heading into the weekend before Christmas -- perfect if you have some last minute shopping to do or if you have plans with family.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light south to southwest winds continue for all terminals. Scattered high clouds have slowed overnight cooling slightly and this may be contributing to guidance keeping the threat of patchy fog very low. Fog is not anticipated to cause aviation impacts, but the threat can not be entirely ruled out. Winds will gradually shift to westerly and eventually northwesterly through the day on Tuesday. LLWS may become a hazard by evening with much stronger low-level winds overspreading weaker surface winds. LLWS and any fog development will continued to be monitored for future TAF issuances.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.