textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather continues through Friday with highs in the 70s and a few areas in the low 80s.

- Winds gusting to around 40-45 mph on Friday will be a concern for some limited fire impacts in areas with cured fuels. However, the strongest winds will not be co-located with the lowest RH values.

- Shower and storm chances increase this weekend through Monday (60-80%). Expect a cooling trend from Saturday onward with highs reaching the 50s to low 60s by Tuesday.

LONG TERM

/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

An H5 longwave trof will intensify across the Intermountain West early Friday morning. Lee cyclogenesis occurs with the sfc feature tracking northeast toward the Dakotas. A tight pressure gradient should develop over most of the Plains, and combined with afternoon mixing into an H8 40 to 50 kt, expect gusty south southeasterly sfc winds of 40 to 45 mph. Another warm day will be on store with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Given the strong winds and dry conditions, some fire weather concerns may arise, particularly in areas where crops have managed to dry out and become cured. Minimum RH currently ranges from 30 to 40% for most of the area that day, but could see more of a drop depending on how deep we can mix. At this time, portions of northeast Nebraska have at least some risk for meeting Red Flag Warning criteria, however, the lowest RH values of 25 to 30% still appear concentrated along the Nebraska/Kansas border area and away from the highest winds.

While not overly strong, should see some forcing for ascent move in by late Friday into Saturday. This should work with some low level moisture to generate scattered showers and perhaps some storms. PoPs of 30 to 60% are expected for primarily northeast Nebraska on Saturday. As the H5 wave pivots to the northeast, another disturbance will pivot from the southwest and eject toward the Plains on Sunday, leading to continued shower and storm chances, this time areawide at 60 to 80%. Chances largely decrease by Tuesday as the wave departs the region. By Monday night, most locations should see anywhere from a quarter to half inch of rain, while far northeast Nebraska could see totals of an inch or more. Temperatures will be on a downward trend from Saturday onward, reaching the 50s and 60s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with only the threat of patchy fog to spoil it. Best chances of the fog will be at KOFK, but latest guidance has reduced confidence in its development. Still, have left some 6SM visibility in the TAF to best suggest its timing. Believe KOMA and KLNK may avoid the fog altogether, but confidence in fog placement and timing is never too high. Changes in the TAF are quite possible later tonight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.