textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the low to mid 90s today with a HeatRisk level of Moderate (level 2 out of 4). Warm temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s persist through the 7-day forecast.

- 5-15% chance of strong to severe storms today across northeast NE and west-central IA, then shifts into east- central NE Thursday. Hail and strong winds the primary hazards.

- On-and-off chances (15-30%) for scattered showers and storms through the weekend. The threat for severe weather stays low during this period but could increase early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

We're starting another day with clear skies and light winds this morning as a broad, weak upper-level ridge is positioned over the Central Plains. Increasing southerly flow today out ahead of an approaching shortwave will lead to enhanced warm-air advection. This will bring high temperatures this afternoon into the low-to-mid 90s. We overperformed yesterday by a degree or two in a few spots, and I wouldn't be shocked if we do again with a few spots getting up to 96-98. This will be the warmest day of the year so far and summer is just getting started, so people may be a bit more sensitive to the heat this early. NWS's HeatRisk has our area under a Moderate threat for heat impacts (level 2 out of 4).

The shortwave arrives this afternoon, developing showers and storms along and north of a stationary boundary initially situated on the Nebraska-South Dakota state line. This boundary now lifts north toward Sioux Falls as the surface low arrives, trending shower and storm activity farther north. This keeps most of it in eastern South Dakota, but we still have 15-20% chances in far northeast Nebraska near the state line. In this area, we'll see SBCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg, allowing for enhanced vertical updrafts, but the little amount of environmental shear should limit any severe potential to 1+ inch hail and winds 60+ mph. SPC has northeast Nebraska under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather today.

Outflow from the MCS that develops north of the aforementioned boundary pushes it south into northern Nebraska Wednesday night, and the nocturnal low-level jet kicks up shower and storm activity along that boundary over central Nebraska overnight. CAMs and ensembles keep us clear Wednesday evening, but develops some showers and storms over northeast Nebraska overnight. Right now forcing appears to be weaker with less instability over eastern Nebraska overnight, so severe potential appears low at this time.

Thursday we see another shortwave pass over our area bringing with it a more substantial surface low that passes across South Dakota into western Minnesota. This system picks up the boundary across northern Nebraska and enhances shower and storm activity along the boundary Thursday afternoon through the overnight hours. Again, northeast Nebraska will primarily be the target for shower and storm activity with a Marginal Risk for severe weather. While we will have ample instability for strong updrafts, again we will be lacking substantial environmental shear for a significant severe weather threat.

Going into the weekend, temperatures will remain elevated peaking in the mid-to-upper 80s. The system on Thursday forces the boundary farther south, now bisecting our area on Friday, which will bring shower chances (20-30%) to most of our area. Another, weaker shortwave will provide forcing for scattered showers and storms through Friday afternoon and overnight with another low potential for severe storms.

This pattern continues into the weekend as we see weak shortwaves bring rounds of scattered showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures warming into the 80s to low 90s each afternoon. Monday we see a more vigorous shortwave bring another low pressure system through, which would probably be our best shot for any better chance for severe weather, so keep an eye on Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions hold through the TAF period with winds out of the south. Winds will gust to 25 kt this afternoon, relaxing back down to 5-10 kt after 00Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.