textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of light snow developing tonight with the best chances (50-90% PoPs) south of I-80. Light snow to continue in southeast NE and southwest IA Saturday into Saturday night. - Highest totals of 2-4" along the KS border, decreasing with northeast extent. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

- Continued cold through Monday morning. Coldest wind chills of -15 to -25 expected Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

Early afternoon surface analysis shows a ridge of high pressure over the Dakotas into southern MN and IA, which represents an arctic air mass in place across the region. Weak radar returns evident in mosaic imagery are indicative of precipitation aloft, which is not able to reach the surface due to a dry, low- level air mass, per the midday balloon data. The surface high pressure will remain a source of dry-air advection into region, which is now being better-resolved by the models. As a result, forecast snow amounts have decreased over the past 24 hours, especially along and north of I-80. Closer to the KS border, isentropic ascent (best seen on the 270-275K surfaces) is expected to become sufficiently strong to overwhelm the low- level sublimation process, resulting in a prolonged period of light to occasionally moderate snow tonight into Saturday night.

Initial onset of light snow is not expected until after 9 or 10 PM in our western/southern counties with the peak areal extent and intensity occurring in the 3 AM to 8 AM timeframe before decreasing north of I-80 by noon Saturday. The light snow or flurries are expected to continue into Saturday night in parts of southeast NE and southwest IA.

This forecast update will indicate the potential for 2-4" accumulations near the KS border, decreasing with northeastward extent. Some locations in northeast NE and west-central IA may not see any snow at all. Minor travel impacts (e.g., reduced visibilities and/or snow-covered roads) are most probable in the area of highest accumulation, where a Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect from 9 PM until 6 AM Sunday.

It will remain cold with lows tonight in the negative single digits and winds chills generally in the negative teens. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the single digits above zero.

Sunday and Monday:

A couple mid-level disturbances are forecast to move through the region Sunday and Sunday night, along with a reinforcing shot of arctic air. Lows Saturday night/Sunday morning will be in the negative single digits to around zero with associated wind chills in the negative single digits to negative teens. Temperatures are expected to warm into the teens Sunday ahead of the next push of arctic air with lows Sunday night/Monday morning falling into the negative single digits. Associated wind chills are projected to be in the -15 to -25 range at that time, so additional cold weather headlines may be required. The models indicate a downslope-warming pattern developing by Monday afternoon with highs bouncing back into the teens and 20s.

Tuesday through Thursday:

The 12z global models indicate a low-amplitude disturbance glancing the region Wednesday with a light QPF signal. This forecast update will indicate low PoPs (15-20%) in northeast NE at that time. Otherwise, highs in the 20s Tuesday could warm into the 20s and 30s ahead of that system Wednesday before falling back into the teens and 20s by Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least 24/06z with ceiling heights generally at or above FL060. Thereafter, light snow will move into the area with the highest confidence in MVFR to potentially IFR conditions at KLNK prior to 24/12z. North-northeast winds of 10-14 kt will diminish this afternoon into tonight while gradually shifting to east and then southeast.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for NEZ078-088>093. IA...None.