textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms continue through the early morning hours, with one or two strong storms producing hail or damaging winds.

- Independence Day will feature highs in the 80s to lower 90s. There is a 30% chance for thunderstorms during the evening, and if they develop, they could produce locally damaging winds.

- Sunday through much of Tuesday brings a period of slightly cooler, slightly drier, and mainly precipitation free conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Several severe storms developed this evening, but the overall intensity of those storms has waned as we've gotten into the evening hours. As of midnight, we do have some fresh development on the nose of a weak low level jet from the Grand Island area over toward Wahoo. This environment has a substantial amount of most unstable CAPE, in the 3000 J/kg range, but the effective shear is not particularly impressive and forecast soundings show a bit of a weak cap for those elevated parcel sources. Going forward, anticipate this scattered thunderstorm activity to continue particularly between Lincoln and Columbus and areas to the southwest. There is a small chance for one or two of the strongest storms to produce severe hail, but it seems it would require a particularly tall updraft to access better effective shear, and might be favored in any left-moving elevated supercell that can develop given the anticyclonically curved effective hodograph. By 2 or 3 AM, these storms should be on a decreasing trend as the weak LLJ further weakens and refocuses farther south.

Independence Day will be warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and dewpoints up around 70 again. Much of the day is likely to be free of precipitation, but there is a feature of interest currently crossing central Montana in WV imagery scheduled to approach our northwestern parts of the forecast area by early evening. Several (but definitely not all) models are producing scattered thunderstorms in advance of this short wave trough. Boundary layer convergence is weak and unimpressive with this system, but the mid/upper support may be sufficient to set off storms. If thunderstorms develop in SD and northern NE, there is a decent signal that they could push a cold pool southeast across the forecast area and force additional development. Expect moderate instability in place with unimpressive wind fields, so a widespread organized storm complex doesn't look especially likely, but will still need to monitor the potential for damaging wind gusts. And of course, any potential for thunderstorms during the evening of the 4th can have substantial impacts. Right now I'd say we're looking at about a 30% chance of a thunderstorm influencing peak fireworks hours, and mainly southeast of Albion, Norfolk, and Wayne areas.

Sunday and Monday are likely to be quieter with mainly dry conditions and temperatures in the 80s with a slightly drier airmass. Tuesday will be similar, but late in the day could see storm chances return especially in the north as a short wave trough crosses the northern Plains. There is strong model agreement that the front associated with that trough will sag through our area on Wednesday with a good chance for thunderstorms. Then our next best chance for storms arrives Friday night with another stronger short wave trough.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

All the remaining thunderstorms are south of the the TAF forecast sites this morning, and will keep the forecasts dry for now. There is a 20-30% chance of storms this evening, but timing and location question marks leave confidence too low to include in the forecast for now.

The other primary concern is the early morning fog. Fog has lifted at KOMA and KLNK, but remain in place at KOFK. Expect to see improvement between 13Z and 15Z... with a return to VFR cigs and visibility by 17Z.

Winds will remain quiet through the TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.