textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance (10%) for some sprinkles of a few flakes in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this evening with winds on the increase this evening.

- 40 to 70% chance of snow for much of the forecast area Friday beginning 6 AM. Strong 40 to 50 mph winds for much of Friday combined with snow will lead to poor visibilities and travel impacts in areas that experience snow showers.

- Cold air and lingering gustiness will result in wind chills ranging from the single digits to teens below zero Saturday and Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning features a deepening mid/upper shortwave swinging southward through the northwesterly flow from south-central Canada while the main trough over the CONUS continues to shift further over the Atlantic Coast. Despite winds beginning to shift northwesterly, a thermal ridge ahead of the colder air brought by the northerly shortwave has allowed temperatures to push into the 50s for some locations while 40s and even 30s remain where spots remain locked under cloud cover. Hand analysis places a cold front from northeast ND through northwestern SD and WY before arcing into south-central Montana, representing the beginning of the cold and wintry action headed for the forecast area this evening. Just to the north of this front, a band of strong ascent is apparent in visible imagery, and this feature should arrive to northeast Nebraska around 6 PM, pushing further to the southeast and through the forecast area by midnight while becoming increasingly diffuse. As it moves through, light rain and snow will try to overcome dry low- level air and bring a trace of accumulation that will generally go unnoticed. The arrival will also bring increasing wind gusts that start getting closer to 30-40 mph, with even stronger speeds expected tomorrow.

Moving onto tomorrow, confidence continues to increase in the development of narrow show showers and increasing winds that will complicate travel for anyone driving during the day tomorrow. The combination of mid-upper positive vorticity advection and steep lapse rates from the surface to 800 mb will combine forcing and instability for some shallow convection to occur in the boundary layer into the dendritic growth zone. CAMs are in excellent agreement in the low-level thermal profile, and generally do exhibit fascinating horizontal convective roll-like features in the model reflectivity fields. Another clue pointing to the convective activity is the disruption of a strong 850 mb jet streak that loses its steam as it noses into eastern Nebraska and points eastward. With that said, we are still expect to have gusty winds that top out in the 40 to 50 mph range, and have a Wind Advisory in effect for the strongest period of gusts from 6 AM to 6 PM.

In regards to the impacts from any snow, it becomes a tricky message to deliver. Looking at model soundings, areas depicting a skinny snow shower oriented in line with the mean wind have sufficient saturation in the dendritic growth zone. In between the stripes of snow, a much drier profile is displayed. Saturation and therefore any snowfall occurring is entirely dependent on the realization of the instability and convective features that will gradually moisten the lower levels. Since the lines of snow are in line with the wind, we will have a better shot at accumulations for some locations due to the increased residence time, we will have plenty of areas that just don't get enough time below a shower to overcome dry air and see anything really pile up. The better bet and impact to travel will be quickly changing visibilities, especially for travelers along any east/west highway or road. The combination of the falling snow and strong winds will create whiteout conditions in the worst spots, and could catch drivers off-guard. Don't rule out a snow squall warning or two from being issued either. As far as timing the snow goes, chances begin as early as 6 AM for northeast Nebraska (where the impacts to the morning commute could happen). They'll push southeast through the morning before exiting the area by 8 PM (making the evening commute potentially dicier for most). With snow exiting the area, the focus will shift from the strong winds and snow to residual cold that settles in to start the weekend.

Saturday and Beyond:

For the latter half of the forecast, cold temperatures become the main focus, as the combination of lingering gustiness and temperatures in the teens and single digits. Minimum wind chills drop to 5 to 20 below Saturday morning and 5 to 15 below Sunday and Monday mornings (all three coldest in northeast Nebraska). In addition to the cold mornings, global models and their associated ensembles are hinting at some minor snow chances Sunday evening, as a shortwave moves south across the High Plains, with chances for a trace of snow increasing as you head west from here. Northwesterly flow will continue to reign supreme through at least mid-week, with the pattern beginning to turn zonal for the latter half of the week. Chances for precipitation look to be slim-to-none, with any systems that could nudge closer to the forecast area all being low moisture carrying systems.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 548 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Mostly VFR conditions favored overnight, though could see a brief period of MVFR ceilings as a band of light rain moves through between 03 and 06Z (20-30% chance). Chances then increase for snow through the day Friday, though it looks like we'll see very narrow hit-or-miss bands of snow. Confidence in them moving over TAF sites is rather low given how narrow they're expected to be, but during periods where snow is falling, expect MVFR ceilings and IFR or worse visibility. Also some questions on exact timing, so tried to include TEMPO group for most likely period, but very well could see snow outside of those periods. Otherwise, the main story will be gusty winds. Any southerly/southwesterly winds to start will quickly become northwesterly with gusts increasing through the period, topping out at 35-45 kts during the day on Friday.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078. IA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for IAZ043.