textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for several counties across northern Nebraska and northwestern Iowa through 6pm. Expect the combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels to result in critical fire weather conditions.

- Light snow possibly transitioning to a light wintry mix is expected Sunday into Monday morning. Snow accumulations of up to two inches of snow will be possible along with a light glaze of ice on some surfaces.

- Heading into mid-week, temperatures will warm, gradually returning to the 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Low pressure will move across Manitoba this afternoon with an attendant cold front draped across Minnesota and South Dakota. The front will drop into northern Nebraska later today, which will bring some cooler air to the region tomorrow. For the rest of today, expect high temperatures to reach the 60s and 70s across the region. The Red Flag Warning was expanded southward due to concerns with low relative humidity values (upper teens-low 20s), winds gusting as high as 35 mph, and dry fuels. Any fires that start today will spread rapidly.

Cooler air pushes in Saturday as the front continues across the region. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with a few low 60s in some locations.

Sunday, a shortwave trough enters the region from the west. Models have shifted this system further to the south than past runs, which has also effectively shifted precipitation amounts. Light snow will be possible early on in the event, before changing to a wintry mix. Snow accumulations of a dusting to maybe 1-2 inches will be possible. The area where the highest snowfall amounts are currently expected is mainly along and south of I-80. Heading into late Sunday night/early Monday morning, there is a possibility of some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle in southeastern Nebraska. This may leave a light glaze of ice on surfaces.

Expect some ridging over the area on Monday, with temperatures returning back into the 40s for highs. A gradual warming trend will set up as a trough over the Desert Southwest puts us under southwest flow. This trough is expected to lift to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As far as the mid-week storm system, a frontal boundary sets up over southeastern Kansas and west central Missouri on Tuesday, lifting slightly north on Wednesday but remaining in Missouri and Kansas. There is still some model uncertainty on timing of a shortwave moving through the region, with the GFS having a slightly quicker and more aggressive arrival. The one things models are in agreement on is that the system will not tap into warm, moist gulf air until after it has moved past impacting our CWA. Right now, the best chances of precipitation will be south of our CWA along the boundary; however, there is a non-zero chance of some rain impacting areas along and south of I-80 Wednesday into Wednesday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with only a few passing high-level clouds. Gusty northwest winds at KOFK and KOMA are expected to diminish to less than 12 kt within the next hour or so. Winds become northeast and then east tonight into Saturday with speeds increasing to around 12 kt by mid-morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034. IA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043.