textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds have developed behind a cold front this evening, with northwesterly gusts up to 45-60 mph. A High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory remain in effect for eastern Nebraska and western Iowa through 4 AM.

- Another round of strong winds and wintry weather (70-90% chance) is expected to impact the area Saturday night into Sunday.

- Cooler conditions return Sunday into Monday before a warming trend develops midweek, with highs potentially reaching the 60s and 70s by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Tonight and Friday...

A deepening low tracking along the US/Canada border has brought warm, dry and windy conditions to the area today. A cold front racing south across the region this evening has veered winds from westerly to north-northwesterly, with strong CAA behind the front and a 60-65 kt 850 mb speed max pivoting overhead, bringing a surge of strong wind gusts. Gusts in the 45-60 mph have edged into northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa, where a High Wind Warning remains in effect until 4 AM. Farther south, a Wind Advisory remains in place along the I-80 corridor where gusts are favored to peak in the 40-50 mph range. A few reflectivity returns have also been pivoting around northeast Nebraska and western Iowa. Model soundings indicate a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. However, there is the potential for virga to aid in some additional downward momentum transfer and bring a few isolated 60+ mph gusts to the surface early Friday morning.

Winds will gradually diminish through the late morning as surface high pressure pushes into the region. The surge of CAA will keep Friday's highs cooler, generally in the 40s to low 50s. Light snow may graze far northeast Nebraska late Friday evening into early Saturday as WAA and a weak FGEN band grazes the NE/SD border. Moisture with this feature appears limited, with only a 20-40% probability of 0.10 inches of snow across far northeast Nebraska.

Saturday and Sunday...

This weekend, an amplifying mid-level trough moving into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will bring the next chance for widespread precipitation to the region. Southeasterly low-level flow and enhanced WAA ahead of the system will support mild temperatures Saturday, with afternoon highs reaching the 50s across northeast Nebraska and the 60s across southeast Nebraska before precipitation chances arrive Saturday evening as an associated surface low tracks into the region. PoPs currently peak in the 70-90% range Saturday night before gradually tapering off through Sunday afternoon.

Precipitation type will likely vary through the event. Precipitation is expected to begin as a rain, with an embedded thunderstorm or two possible, before transitioning to a rain/snow mix overnight and eventually changing to all snow by Sunday morning as cooler air filters into the region on the backside of the low. Both the GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble remain consistent in focusing the highest snowfall probabilities across northeast Nebraska, with probabilities decreasing southward. Ensemble guidance suggests a 70-90% probability of at least one inch of snow across northeast Nebraska, tapering off to around 10-20% near the NE/KS border. Both ensembles also indicate a 30-50% probability of at least three inches of snow across portions of northeast Nebraska. The main question remaining is how the remainder of Sunday will play out. GEFS and RRFS bring a final push a heavy snow along the deformation zone Sunday afternoon while EPS pushes the system out a little quicker and drier, helping to avoid this final push.

Gusty winds will be another concern, particularly on Sunday as a tight pressure gradient develops on the backside of the departing surface low. EPS/EPS-AIFS guidance indicates a 80-100% probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph and a 20-30% probability of gusts reaching 58 mph. Blowing snow may become a concern. Afternoon highs on Sunday will be quite variable, with anywhere from the 20s across northeast Nebraska over the fresh snowpack to the 40s by the NE/KS border. This system will be one to monitor closely, especially for those with travel plans this weekend.

Monday and Beyond...

Gusty northwesterly flow aloft will bring a chilly start to the work week. Monday morning lows will be the coolest the area has seen in a while, with the single digits for most. Wind chills are expected to dip into the 10 to 20 degree below zero range as gusts continue into the morning hours. Mondays highs are only expected to peak in the 20s to low 30s. The cooler pattern will be short-lived, however, as broad ridging builds into the region by midweek. This will allow temperatures to rebound into the 30s and 40s Tuesday, with highs potentially reaching the 60s and 70s Wednesday through Friday. Portions of east-central Nebraska may even have a chance (20-40% probability, per the NBM) to hit the 80s by the end of the work week.

The warmer pattern may persist beyond midweek, as both the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks continue to favor above-normal temperatures across the region, with probabilities in the 60-80% range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 438 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF period with winds the primary concern. West-southwesterly wind gusts will continue at 35-45 kts late this afternoon. A front pushing from north to south this evening will quickly shift winds clockwise to northwesterly with increasing gusts behind the front. A several hour period of 40-45 kts gusts is likely. The front is expected to reach KOFK by 02-03Z and KOMA and KLNK and between 03-04Z.

A brief period of LLWS is expected at KOMA and KLNK ahead of its arrival as southwesterly gusts of 50 kts approach FL020. Winds will gradually calm after 10-11Z, pushing under 12 kts towards the end of the forecast period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Friday for NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>034-042>045. Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for NEZ050>053-065>068. IA...High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Friday for IAZ043-055-056. Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for IAZ069-079-080-090-091.