textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures continue through Monday with widespread highs in the 80s and even low 90s.

- A few strong to severe storms may clip far southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa Tuesday afternoon and evening (5 to 15 percent chance), but higher chances remain farther south.

- More widespread rain arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Fall-like temperatures return by Wednesday, with highs in the 50s and 60s into the weekend. Lows Saturday morning will dip into the 30s, with some frost possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Upper level ridging was in control this evening, giving us mostly clear skies and keeping temperatures in the 70s across most of the area. At the surface, a cold front was pushing southeast into northeast NE, stretching from around Sioux City to Norfolk to Albion as of 11 PM. It's not expected to make much more progress overnight, so north of that line, expect lows in the upper 50s and 60s, and south of that line, expect lows right around 70.

The front will begin to slowly edge southward during the day on Monday, pushing into far southeast NE and southwest IA by the evening. Areas that remain ahead of the front most of the day will see another hot day with highs in the lower 90s (likely breaking records), while areas behind will be in the 70s and 80s. By the evening, guidance is in decent agreement that we'll see at least some precip development along the boundary as moisture transport strengthens. Model soundings continue to show quite a bit of dry air to overcome, but also a little instability to work with, so think things will be spotty, but wouldn't rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Maintaining a 20% chance of showers and storms.

The boundary looks to remain in the NE/KS/IA/MO border area on Tuesday, though still quite a bit of spread in guidance on exactly where it sets up (could be over our area or could be to the south). The general idea is that storms will develop along the boundary in the afternoon/evening as a surface low develops over southeast CO and western KS and some shortwave energy coming from both a large scale trough over the Desert Southwest and from Hurricane Simon off the west coast of Mexico arrives in the area. The advection of warm, moist air ahead of the boundary during the day will lead to a decently unstable airmass with guidance suggesting 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Shear will also be plenty strong to yield a strong to severe storm threat, though with largely boundary-parallel shear, storms could be a little messy. Finally, with at least some tropical influence, expect efficient rain production with precipitable water values around 1.75 inches, so can't rule out some flooding wherever the primary rain band sets up. Again, the big question will be where the storms develop. Many CAMs (e.g. 12.00Z HRRR) keep things largely south of our area, though a few REFS members would suggest areas near and south of a Fairbury to Nebraska City to Red Oak line would have at least some severe weather threat (up to 15% chance).

Precip looks to expand north of the boundary later Tuesday evening as isentropic ascent picks up. We should see a break for much of the area during the day Wednesday before more widespread chances arrive Wednesday evening and last into Thursday as the large scale trough to our west moves in. Still a fair amount of spread on how exactly that system evolves, mainly impacting how long rain lingers into Thursday. Some guidance suggests the wave moves through very quickly or we get a strong punch of dry air and most of Thursday is dry. Other solutions linger a deformation band of rain across the area into Thursday evening. For now, precip chances are in the 60-80% range through noon and drop to around 20-30% after.

We'll dry out after that as another trough drops southeast out of Canada and into the Great Lakes while cool high pressure builds in across the forecast area. Temperatures through the week steadily decrease, with widespread 60s to lower 70s Wednesday and Thursday followed by 50s and lower 60s Friday. The coldest night will be Friday night, with lows dipping into the 30s. Latest guidance is trending toward lower probabilities for a true freeze (20-30% chance of getting below 32 degrees) as the trough out of Canada is tracking farther east, but some patchy frost may be possible that night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. LLWS will again be possible near FL020 tonight, out of the southwest at 30-35 kts. A cold front, currently stalled near the KOFK area, is expected to briefly bob to the north before slowly making it's way south through the period. Winds at KOFK are expected to briefly return to the south, before veering to the west, and eventually continue out of the northwest this afternoon and evening. Winds at KLNK and KOMA will become northerly with the frontal passage shortly after 00Z Monday evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.