textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is expected overnight, followed by highs in the lower to middle 90s Thursday.

- Heat builds into the weekend, with heat index values near 100 to 105 at times from Friday through Monday.

- Aside from a few isolated showers Thursday, dry conditions are expected through at least Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Tonight through Friday...

Mid- to upper-level ridging will remain in place across much of the central CONUS, supporting a period of warm and generally quiet weather. Lingering low-level moisture may result in patchy fog overnight, especially near and east of the Missouri River where winds will be the lightest. However, model soundings indicate a very shallow saturated layer, leaving fog development likely constrained to patchy and low-lying areas.

High temperatures Thursday are expected to reach the low to mid 90s, with the warmest readings near the Nebraska-South Dakota border. Continued low-level theta-e advection and evapotranspiration will maintain muggy dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, producing heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. A few isolated, diurnally driven showers cannot be ruled out during the afternoon Thursday (10-15% chance) along with a developing cumulus cloud deck. Temperatures will nudge upwards on Friday, with highs in the 90s and readings approaching 100 degrees near the Nebraska-South Dakota border.

Saturday through Monday...

The mid-level ridge axis will gradually shift toward the western High Plains through the period, allowing temperatures to gradually increase. Highs Saturday and Sunday are forecast to range from the mid 90s to low 100s, with heat index values generally between 95 to 105 degrees.

Monday currently appears to be the hottest day of the period, with widespread highs from 96 to 102 degrees and peak heat index values from 100 to 106 degrees. Heat headlines may eventually be need during this stretch. Although daily heat index values generally peak near Heat Advisory criteria, the prolonged duration of the heat and limited overnight relief, with minimum heat index values remaining in the low to mid 70s, will push HeatRisk in the Major category across much of the area.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounding the ridge and advancing into the northern Plains will begin to weaken the ridge and drive a cold front through the region. This will provide some relief from the heat, with highs falling into the mid 80s to low 90s, though long range guidance is torn on whether the cooler air will filter in on Tuesday or hold off until Wednesday.

The pattern change will also return precipitation chances to the area. Ensemble guidance currently favors the greatest potential Wednesday into Thursday as another shortwave disturbance moves into the region, supporting PoPs around 30%.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions start the period. Surface high pressure centered near the area is resulting in light and variable winds or calm winds across the region. With clear skies and light winds, patchy shallow fog is expected to develop overnight through early Thursday morning. Widespread aviation impacts are not anticipated, but brief visibility reductions remain possible. OFK is most likely to see these impacts between 10-13Z. Any fog dissipates by 13-14Z. Southeast winds return Thursday afternoon with scattered afternoon cumulus around FL050.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.