textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Nightly frost chances tonight through Friday night. Highest potential for widespread frost and a freeze in some locations will be Friday night.

- Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (under 20%) at times through this weekend. Highest potential will be Friday afternoon, and Sunday evening.

- Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Friday, then warming into the 60s and 70s Saturday into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Tonight through Saturday Morning:

Water vapor imagery this evening continues to feature zonal activity along the southern tier of the CONUS, while northwesterly flow brings in a band of ascent into the local area. That band of ascent is working with weak warm air advection to develop a swath of shallow clouds and a few sprinkles with them that extends form northeast Nebraska into southern Minnesota. Very little if anything will reach the ground, with the main concern of the overnight hours instead being cooling temperatures and frost formation. Latest observations show surface pressure tendencies on the increase, with wind speeds also becoming lax to help increase radiational cooling potential. Overnight lows are set to fall into the low-to-mid 30s, making most of the area ready for frost formation in low-lying areas.

By daybreak, we'll start to begin coupling back and building the boundary layer vertically to increase winds to similar speeds experienced today. Gusts to 20 mph during the afternoon hours will be enough to make the anticipated highs in the upper 50s to 60s feel brisk. Additional dry air funneling into the area will keep humidity values headed for the 20s across the bulk of the area, with the spring green-up limiting fire danger with the forecasted wind speeds. Heading into the overnight hours, another calm night arrives and our best chances at frost and even freeze potential are set to occur. Overnight temperatures will fall as low as 30 degrees at their low point, which could trend even into the upper 20s if temperatures over-perform compared to guidance the previous morning. The best chances for any freeze warnings would be northwest of a line from Columbus to Onawa, with the entire area under the gun for frost.

Saturday and Beyond:

Saturday headed into next week will see the mid/upper pattern begin building heights over the central and western CONUS as the main upper trough scoots eastward. Highs will respond in kind, pushing into the 60s/70s Saturday and well into the 70s Sunday/Monday. Rain chances during this period are pretty slim, with anything that models do put out ending up near a trace and a far cry from anything that would help with the drought in place. The winds of change arrive during the latter half of Monday heading into Tuesday, where upper 50s/60s return and a cutoff low tries to phase with a digging lobe of the persistent low to the northeast, bringing rain chances for the general area. Large model spread and run-to-run differences are going to keep any promises for meaningful rainfall limited. At the very least, the NE/KS/IA/MO area will see some prolonged rainfall headed towards mid-week, but details as to exactly where it exceeds wetting amounts will remain murky for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours with light and variable winds overnight (generally out of west). Mostly clear skies are expected with a band of clouds working north to south across the area at FL080.

Skies will be primarily clear on Friday, too, but a few cumulus around FL060 are expected during the morning hours. Winds will become breezy Friday morning with gusts near 20 knots out of the north.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091.