textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect for much of eastern Nebraska/western Iowa through this evening. Expect temperatures in the 90s with heat index values approaching 106.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight, particularly for northeastern Nebraska. Gusty winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any storms that develop.

- Expect temperatures to reach the 90s each day through the end of the week. Daily chances for showers and storms will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The forecast period starts out with high pressure over the eastern CONUS, an upper low over Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and southwest flow over the Central High Plains and Great Plains. Warm gulf air is streaming into the region today, leaving us with noticeably muggy and uncomfortable conditions. The main change in the heat related part of the forecast for today was bringing dewpoints up a bit across the region as many models have not been high enough over the past couple of days. We are still on track to reach the low to mid- 90s across the region this afternoon with heat index values ranging from 99-106 degrees. The Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning products will continue through this afternoon and into the start of this evening. A few showers with maybe an isolated rumble of thunder remain possible along the KS/NE border.

Heading into tonight, temperatures are expected to cool into the low to mid-70s for locations that have been under the heat related products. Factoring this in as well as local criteria for heat and expected temperatures and heat indices, at this point, the warning and advisory will not be extended.

A stationary boundary remains draped across central Nebraska this afternoon into this evening. There is still disagreement in where storms will develop and set up this evening/tonight across the region. The NAMNest for example, has thunderstorms developing from Ft. Morgan, Colorado to Kimball, Nebraska, lifting to the northeast and bowing out as it moves into the Omaha CWA. The HRRR shows thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Kansas, lifting to the northeast through the evening and overnight hours along the boundary. There is consensus that northeastern Nebraska stands the best chance of storms tonight for our area, based on current models; however, areas further south toward Lincoln, Omaha, and Red Oak, are not entirely in the clear. As far as severe weather potential is concerned, similar to last night, a wind and hail threat appears the most likely hazards with any storms that develop and make it into our area. Storms that are able to cross the boundary will make it into a favorable environment for storms, with DCAPE values of 1200- 1600 J/kg, MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg, and steep lapse rates. Additionally, precipitable water values ranging from 1.0" to 1.8" will also be in place, so any thunderstorms that develop drop some localized heavy rainfall.

The upper ridge remains in place through the rest of the week and into the weekend for the region, with southwest flow over the Great Plains. This will allow high temperatures to remain in the 90s each day while lows are in the 60s and 70s. Given the position of the ridge and the CWA location, we will continue to have a series of disturbances moving through the region over the coming days. These will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to severe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at the terminals. There is a chance of a few thunderstorms moving through the region this evening/tonight; however, confidence in where and when they move through is still up in the air. Right now, the best chances for storms appear to be after 04Z. LLWS is expected to develop by 05Z at the terminals, persisting through around 14Z at KOMA/KLNK and 08Z at KOFK.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ015-034-044- 045-050-051-065>068-078-088>093. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ052- 053. IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ056- 069-079-080-090-091.