textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for scattered showers and storms this afternoon and into the evening hours (40-60%). Storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Warm temperatures expected today with highs in the low to mid 90s.

- Periodic strong to severe storm chances continue for Saturday through Monday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The H5 pattern on Sunday will feature an amplifying longwave trof over the western CONUS. Several shortwaves are seen ejecting from the feature from eastern Colorado toward the Central and Northern Plains areas. Sfc cyclogenesis ensues with the low progged to track through the area. The H8 baroclinic zone should swing northward through the area, allowing ample south/southwesterly flow to point into the area for much of the day and evening. Expect to see a strong 45 to 60 kt LLJ overspread the area behind the front, along with instability of 3,000 to 4,000 j/kg. Forecast soundings appear to show capping eroding in the afternoon, and when combined with the strong bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts, should see severe convection develop over the area with all hazards on the table. In addition, some urban flash flood potential does exist. Should see areas have efficient rainfall processes with warm cloud depths approaching the 3,500 to 4,000 meter mark.

For Monday, should see a similar threat as the H5 longwave is progged to track farther east into the Plains. Similar to Sunday, should see similar values of instability along with strong deep layer shear of 55 to 60 kts yielding a threat for severe convection. For this update, the threat remains shifted slightly to the east.

Generally quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the extended with cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are set through the first 12 hours of the TAF period, only to be interrupted by showers and storms (some strong) that will develop near to just south of the KLNK and KOMA terminals. East-southeasterly winds will become increasingly southeasterly over the course of the day, with winds shifting northeasterly once storms develop and move to the southeast. Short-term models have trended the storms to be a bit later since last TAF issuance, with the timing of KOMA shifted two hours later, while KLNK shifts one hour back from the previous forecast.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.