textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with the potential for wind and hail.

- The threat for severe weather increases slightly on Saturday with the potential for a complex of thunderstorms producing damaging winds across Nebraska and Iowa.

- Temperatures will trend warmer over the weekend into early next week with more locations likely hitting 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday.

- Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north, with only a small amount reaching the surface.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

With weak high pressure across the Ohio Valley and a surface trough across the High Plains, southeast surface winds have held steady tonight across central Nebraska. However, across eastern portions of the state the winds are very light and dewpoint depressions are only 1-4 degrees. This will set the stage for fog/low stratus through at least the early morning. We think there will be just enough mixing to prevent widespread dense fog, but there could be some low spots with poor visibility. The RAP hydrolapse is favorable for fog across far eastern NE and western IA through sunrise.

Early morning convection is looking more likely early this morning near or just northeast of the forecast - likely where SD/MN/IA come together. 1000-2000 MUCAPE and ~35kts of 0-6 bulk shear suggest the potential for a few strong to severe storms with this early round of storms. The forcing along an advancing cold front is better north of the area this morning. The front is expected to make steady progress through the day, and we'll need to watch for development back to the southwest along the boundary this afternoon. As it stands now, we keep most of the PoPs in western IA (15-30%), but far eastern NE is still in play. Of note, we raised sky cover a bit (even after the morning stratus) because there will be a veil of smoke aloft today. This can sometimes cause us to be 2-4 degrees too warm on high temperatures, and it would also knock the suface-based instability back just a bit.

Saturday still looks to bring a better chance for more widespread thunderstorms and also an increasing risk for severe weather with a damaging wind threat. Considerable model spread in both the global models and hi-res convective allowing models remain, but western IA looks more in higher confidence zone at this point - especially for QPF totals. There is also a timing issue with convective initiation earlier in the day, perhaps with a weakening trend through the peak heating hours, and then strengthening with upscale growth as storms reach their potential once they cross the Missouri River in the late afternoon / early evening.

After a couple warmer days on Sunday and Monday, the ridging eases back and a more zonal flow returns with the upper jet sagging farther south across the northern CONUS. That'll be a cooler and relatively wet pattern. This means early signs of optimism for the drought stricken areas of Nebraska, Colorado, and Wyoming.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 602 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Patchy fog has developed across the region, bringing visibilities down to MVFR and IFR levels at several locations around the TAF sites. Areas of broken MVFR and IFR ceilings have also developed, but should clear out shortly after sunrise. Expect conditions to improve to VFR after 15Z this morning. A few showers and storms are moving through far southeast Nebraska this morning, with another round of storms possible, mainly along and east of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds will be light, under 12kts, becoming southwesterly through the morning, and eventually northerly by Friday evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ015-030- 033-034-042>045-050>053-065-067-068-090>093. IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091.