textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly cold temperatures this morning with wind chills in the negative single digits. Another surge of arctic air tonight will bring Monday morning wind chills of 5 to 20 degrees below zero.

- Winds will increase through the day, with northwesterly gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected this afternoon.

- Spotty snow showers are possible this afternoon (20% chance). While accumulations will be minimal, strong winds may cause blowing snow and brief, rapid reductions in visibility.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this morning depict a mid- to upper-level trough centered over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, with a shortwave disturbance pivoting through the northern Plains around the broader trough. Ahead of this disturbance, a transient surface high allowed winds to diminish overnight. However, strong CAA over the past 24-36 hours has firmly established an arctic airmass across the region. Morning low temperatures have fallen into the positive single digits, with wind chills in the single digits below zero.

These calm conditions will be short-lived, as a highly variable day is expected. The aforementioned shortwave has induced surface cyclogenesis over North Dakota, with the low forecast to track southeastward through the day. A warm front extends southward from this low and will sweep east across the area this morning. Along this boundary, a brief WAA regime may support light snow, mainly across northeast Nebraska this morning. While MRMS composite reflectivity shows a band of returns extending from eastern North Dakota into northeast Nebraska as of 1 AM, model soundings reveal modest dry air in the sub-cloud layer. As a result, little precipitation is expected to reach the ground, and PoPs will remain capped near 20%.

In the wake of the warm frontal passage, winds will veer quickly from southerly to northwesterly and strengthen through the late morning and early afternoon. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are expected, with the strongest gusts focused across northeast Nebraska. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the area from 9 AM through 7 PM. The brief WAA will also allow temperatures to rise, with highs reaching the 30s to low 40s in southeast Nebraska. This mild interlude will be short-lived as a cold front surges southward during the afternoon, ushering in another round of strong CAA and renewed snow shower potential.

Scattered snow showers are expected to pivot through the area during the afternoon. Model soundings indicate moderately steep lapse rates within the dendritic growth zone. However, moisture depth remains limited. Consequently, snow showers are expected to be spotty with minimal accumulation, and PoPs peak near 20%. Despite the limited coverage, any showers that develop could produce brief but significant visibility reductions when combined with the strong winds. A snow squall Special Weather Statement or warning cannot be ruled out this afternoon (20% chance).

Snow shower potential will diminish this evening as the shortwave exits, with winds gradually easing overnight. Persistent CAA will drive Monday morning lows back into the single digits. Northwesterly winds gusting 20 to 30 mph will result in wind chills ranging form 5 to 20 degrees below zero, with the coldest values across northeast Nebraska. Winds will finally subside for good Monday afternoon as surface high pressure briefly settles over the region. Despite the lighter winds, temperatures will remain cold, with afternoon highs only reaching the 20s.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Another frigid morning is expected Tuesday, with low temperatures in the positive single digits and wind chills in the negative single digits. Temperatures will moderate during the day, with afternoon highs rebounding into the 30s to mid 40s. The region will remain under predominantly northwesterly flow aloft through midweek, supporting generally dry conditions with highs largely in the 30s and low 40s through Thursday. Long-range guidance indicates a shortwave moving through the region late Wednesday into early Thursday. Any meaning moisture currently remains displaced to our north and east, limiting precipitation potential locally.

A notable pattern change is anticipated toward the end of the work week and into the weekend as another arctic airmass plunges into the region. This will drive cooler temperatures back into the area, with daytime highs falling into the teens and 20s. Snow chances are also expected to return next weekend, though confidence in timing and intensity remains low given the extended timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 432 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of the forecast, with winds the primary concern. A warm front is pushing eastward across the area this morning, with calm south- southwesterly winds ahead of the front and winds quickly veering to northwesterly and increasing in speed behind the front. Winds are expected to reach sustained speeds of 20-25 kts and gusts of 30-40 kts through the afternoon, taking a small step back during the evening.

A few low confidence snow chances exist today. This morning, a band of light snow is pushing across the area, though a dry sub-cloud layer is prohibiting much of the snow from making it to the ground. KOMA and KOFK could see a few flurries touching down before exiting by 14Z. Isolated snow showers are also possible this afternoon (20% chances). Spotty MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible under any of these showers, though confidence is low in impacts to any of the terminals given their isolated nature. Amendments will be made if needed.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068- 078. IA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079.