textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will continue to overspread the area overnight, before diminishing through Friday morning. Spotty showers and a few isolated storms could linger into the afternoon.

- Thunderstorm chances develop early Saturday, returning during the evening hours, with a few strong wind gusts and hail possible across central Nebraska.

- Next week continues the summer-like pattern, with highs in the 80s and daily shower and storm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Large scale pattern this evening featured ridging over much of the central CONUS with a trough/cutoff low moving onshore over CA. However, there was also a cutoff low spinning over central KS helping to usher moisture northward and lead to rain overspreading the area. While radar was a little misleading, with many of the returns not reaching the ground owing to low level dry air, this should continue to change overnight with strengthening moisture transport and the primary forcing for ascent/low continuing to push northeastward. Instability will remain limited, so any rumbles of thunder should be few and far between as they have been all evening, but still could have a few at times into Friday morning.

CAMs are in good agreement that much of the precip will gradually dissipate through the morning as the strongest forcing for ascent pushes to our northeast and moisture transport tapers off. However, building instability and just enough lingering shortwave energy could yield some very spotty showers and storms through the afternoon. With weak deep layer shear and limited instability, severe storms look unlikely (under 5% chance). Otherwise, cloudy skies and precip will keep us cooler (but a little muggy), with highs in the mid 70s for most.

Friday night into Saturday morning, we'll see a similar scenario to what we saw tonight as some shortwave energy currently over the Desert Southwest moves into the area and leads to increasing shower and storm chances. Deep layer shear remains weak so severe weather chances will remain low. Once again, storm coverage should decrease through the day as shortwave energy pushes to the northeast, but a few spotty storms could linger. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer, with some spots climbing into the lower 80s.

Even more storm chances will arrive Saturday night as the aforementioned trough over the western CONUS moves into the Rockies and a surface low spins up over eastern CO, moving into KS. Storms are expected to develop along a dryline over western NE/KS in the afternoon and possibly push eastward into the forecast area by mid to late evening. With lack of shear, seems like they'll have trouble maintaining this far east and for what it's worth, CAMs that go out that far tend to agree, with storms mostly dying before getting here.

The trough to our west will shift northward on Sunday, though latest guidance suggests a low level moisture plume will remain in place over us with perhaps just enough convergence to yield some afternoon storm development. However, mid level height rises would suggest things could be a little limited. In addition, temperatures will continue to climb, with highs mostly in the 80s on Sunday, and with dewpoints approaching 70, it won't be the most pleasant day to be outside.

We'll stay in this pattern with mid to upper level ridging in place and temperatures in the 80s, with various bits of shortwave energy sliding through and leading to daily shower and storm chances into next week. At this point, given the pattern and continued lack of shear, severe weather chances for us don't look particularly high, but with plenty of moisture and instability in place, wouldn't rule it out on any given day. For what it's worth, various machine learning severe weather algorithms do show at least 5% chances somewhere in our area pretty much every day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Rain showers continue across the area this morning as MVFR conditions work northward, likely impacting KLNK and KOFK by the late morning hours. Patchy IFR conditions will be possible under heavier rain showers. Rain showers will gradually taper off after 29/18Z, however, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through the period. Confidence is too low in location and coverage to include in the TAFs at this time.

Southeasterly winds will increase in speed through the afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 kts. Though we may see spotty improvement through the afternoon, generally MVFR conditions are expected to continue at KOFK and KLNK through the day, eventually reaching KOMA by the late evening. Ceilings will decrease overnight, with patchy IFR conditions possible.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.