textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temps climb a few degrees for Sunday and Monday as elevated wildfire smoke produces some milky skies.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night into Tuesday and linger through at least Wednesday.

- Mild temperatures expected to return Wednesday with another warming trend likely toward the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

What a wonderful evening to follow a pleasant day! Skies are mostly clear and temperatures hover in the low-to-mid 70s as of 9pm. Winds have mostly relaxed across the area wit, generally around 7 mph or less and will continue to relax to near calm overnight. This could allow for some patchy fog to develop, mainly in low-lying valleys of northeast Nebraska.

Satellite shows the Low continuing to spin to our east over the Ohio River Valley this evening while ridging builds over the Northern Rockies and the High Plains. As the upper-level trough continues to drift eastward, we'll lose it's influence and see a flow reversal tomorrow. This will bring a wind shift during the morning to weak southerly flow allowing temperatures to warm a few degrees higher than we saw today. Highs on Sunday will be generally in the mid-to-upper 80s with a few spots closer to north-central Nebraska peaking in the low 90s.

This pattern holds into Monday with southerly flow only amplifying ahead of the trough pushing across the Canadian Rockies. With this we'll see the warming trend continue with highs forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday. The good news is we're not seeing a lot of humidity advect in with this southerly flow as the source region for this air mass is more over central and west Texas. This should keep humidity and heat indices under control, though agricultural contributions will still remain leading to temperatures feeling locally higher in some areas.

Tuesday we see a more profound impact from the trough moving through to our north, bringing a cold front into the area overnight into the early morning hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return with this front starting in northeast Nebraska mostly after Midnight early Tuesday in northeast Nebraska spreading to the I-80 corridor by daybreak. Model guidance shows significant spread in the amount of elevated instability present as the front moves through overnight with a greater amount of bulk shear arriving later in the morning closer to Tuesday afternoon. This should limit severe potential with this first round of storms. Some severe potential seems more possible Tuesday afternoon and evening when model soundings and hodographs show a greater combination of instability and shear. High storm bases (LCLs) will likely limit tornado chances, but we could still see potential for large hail and damaging winds.

Temperatures will be phenomenal on Wednesday with highs mostly in the mid 70s. This is due to a Canadian High sliding down the Rockies into the Central Plains bringing in this cooler air mass. It won't be sunshine and roses, though, as we sit on the southern boundary of this High as it collides with the warmer, moister air mass to the south. This will lead to additional shower and storm chances through the day, mostly along and south of wherever this frontal boundary situates itself across our area.

Confidence drops off in forecast details beyond Wednesday due to a fairly active, baroclinic pattern setting up with northwesterly flow bringing in potential weak shortwave disturbances. Temperatures likely rebound going into the end of the week as the Canadian Highs slides off to the east and we see the return of southerly flow going into the weekend. Depending on how much moisture we advect back into the region, we could see additional shower and storm chances, but again confidence is really low in these details at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Patchy fog Sunday morning may bring pockets of MVFR to LIFR conditions around 02/09-13Z. Fog potential has been left out of the current TAF package due to the low confidence in coverage (20% chance of impacting each terminal). Amendments will be made if needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions are favored through the period with light northerly winds gradually backing to southerly.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.