textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend continues into early next week, with mid 50s to mid 60s through the weekend, and mid 60s to near 70 by Tuesday.

- Low (20-40%) chance of rain late Friday night into Saturday, mainly near and south of I-80. Periodic rain chances return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Today through Saturday...

A weak shortwave skirted along the northeastern fringes of the forecast area this morning, bringing a smattering of light rain to northeast Nebraska and western Iowa. Dry low level air kept the majority of the precipitation from reaching the ground, with only a few automated gauges ticking off a trace of light rain. Temperatures had dipped into the lower 30s over southeast Nebraska early this morning, but remained in the mid to upper 30s across northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, where insulating cloud cover remained.

Clouds will continue to shift eastward today, allowing afternoon highs to push well above normal. As of 1 PM, most locations had reached the mid to upper 50s. Clearing skies overnight will allow lows to fall back into the 20s tonight, before rebounding back into the upper 50s, perhaps low 60s, on Friday.

A trough over the west coast will swing into the desert southwest Friday evening, and spin into the southern Plains Saturday. While there remains some spread as to exactly how far north precipitation reaches, expect around a 30 to 60 percent chance of rain along and south of I-80.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Following the departure of the system to our south, subtle ridging will prevail over the central CONUS, keeping us dry and warm through early next week. Temperatures will warm a few degrees each day, rising from the upper 50s and low 60s Saturday to the upper 60s and low 70s on Tuesday. With the warmer temperatures, we could see an increase in fire danger early next week, as minimum relative humidities dip to 30 to 40% Tuesday, and winds become gusty.

Tuesday Night and Beyond...

A low pressure system will push into the west coast Tuesday, bringing our next chance of rain. The first burst of shortwave energy associated with this system will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday. There appears to be some consensus in surface low developing with this wave, and tracking from Colorado toward the Great Lakes. This will bring a 20-40% chance of rain to the forecast area.

Models continue to diverge on solutions as we look later in the week. There remains the potential for a strong Low to barrel through the Central Plains Thursday or Friday, bringing the chance for widespread precipitation, both rain and snow, in addition to strong winds. However, there remains a wide spread in terms of timing, system strength, and favored precipitation locations. That said, it will be worth keeping an eye on this system over the next few days, as model consensus strengthens.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 516 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions continue through the forecast period. Winds remain light across the area. Northwest winds are generally expected late this evening and overnight. Winds may become variable at times due to surface high pressure centered near the area. Winds are forecast to begin to switch back towards the southwest and eventually southeast late in the period during Friday afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.