textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme fire danger in parts of northeast Nebraska and western Iowa through the remainder of this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 6 PM.

- Snow develops Thursday and continues into Thursday night. Travel impacts are likely (>80%). Highest accumulations of up to 5-6+" are expected north of I-80, where a Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

This afternoon and tonight:

Strong, gradient winds attendant to a deep cyclone over central MN as of noon are affecting northeast NE and west-central IA today with gusts up to 35 mph. The strong winds coincide with above-normal temperatures and relative humidity of 15-20%, yielding extreme fire danger along and northeast of a line from Bloomfield to Fremont to Red Oak, IA, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 6 PM. The winds will diminish early this evening with recovering humidity, effectively reducing wildfire concerns.

Tonight, a shortwave trough currently over the Great Basin is forecast to move into the central High Plains while an associated surface low shifts from northeast CO into central KS.

Thursday and Thursday night:

The above-mentioned shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid-MO Valley Thursday before forming a closed low over IA Thursday evening into Thursday night. The surface low will remain to our south, reaching the Kansas City area by midday, and northeast MO by Thursday evening. The track of the surface low will allow for an increasingly cold air mass to overspread the area Thursday, coincident with strengthening frontogentical forcing. Those processes will yield the development of a snow band across the northern half of our area, with still a fair amount of model variability in exactly where the band will setup.

Ground temperatures currently in the 40s and an initially dry low-level air mass will have to be overcome before snow begins to accumulate. However, the presence of weak conditional symmetric instability will support locally high snow rates with the 12z HREF indicating rates approach 1"/hour from late morning into early evening across portions of northeast NE and west-central IA. Storm-total snow up to 5-6+" appears possible within the core of the snow band with decreasing amounts on either side of it. In addition to the snow, north winds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph will result in visibilities being reduced to less than half a mile at some locations due to falling/blowing snow. The visibility reductions coupled with snow-covered roads will make travel hazardous for some locations north of I-80, especially during higher traffic volume periods Thursday afternoon/early evening.

Along I-80, temperatures are expected to hover in the low/mid 30s Thursday afternoon, resulting in much of the snow melting upon contact with the ground. Some minor accumulations appear possible Thursday evening, once temperatures begin to cool more. An interesting, alternate scenario is depicted by the 18z run of the HRRR, which shows the heavy snow band developing much closer to I-80. We are keeping an eye on model trends.

Given the continued uncertainty in the specific location of the snow band, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued generally along north of a David City to Fremont to Missouri Valley line. Portions of the Advisory may eventually need to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning once confidence in the snow band location increases.

The snow is expected to taper off from west to east Thursday night.

Friday into early next week:

The 12z global models continue to indicate another mid-level disturbance moving through the central Plains Friday night, potentially supporting some light snow across portions of southeast NE and southwest IA. Any accumulations are expected to be light. Otherwise, daytime temperatures are expected to hover mainly in the 30s Friday through the Monday with readings potentially warming into the 50s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Winds are the main concern for the first 18 hours of the TAF period, with speeds starting out slow before gusts return and directions become northeasterly by 06-10z. Winds will gradually shift through 18z to become northwesterly with some gusts of 25-30 kts at their strongest during the afternoon hours. Of greater concern are IFR to LIFR conditions (driven by low visibilities), brought by the arrival of snow to all three terminals. Latest short-term models have slid southward, and currently affect all three terminals, but KOFK/KLNK moreso than KLNK as it lingers past 06z tomorrow night.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012- 015-017-018-032>034-044-045. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ015-033-034-043>045-050-051. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night for NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042. IA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-055- 056-069-080. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ043-055.