textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing showers and weak thunderstorms will taper off later this afternoon.

- The next chance for severe weather will be Monday afternoon/evening. Hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be possible with storms that are able to develop and become severe.

- Cooler weather with a few chances for showers/storms are expected Tuesday through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A weak shortwave continues to move across the region today. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this afternoon. Added some low end PoPs a few hours further into the afternoon as models and observations are hinting at a slower exit of ongoing precipitation. Areas along and particularly west of the Missouri River can expect a few isolated thunderstorms over the next couple of hours. Elsewhere, showers and an isolated storm or two should taper off later this afternoon from west to east.

A ridge will move across the Great Plains and the Dakotas tonight into Monday morning with warm air advecting into the region. There is another chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight into Monday morning. Monday morning, the ridge will be sliding east over Iowa and Minnesota while low pressure over Montana and Canada slides east with an attendant cold front. The cold front is expected to arrive during the afternoon and evening, kicking off additional showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg, decent shear and lapse rates will all be in place during the afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms with a wind and hail threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Can't rule out a couple of tornadoes as well. Severe storm chances will decreasing heading into the overnight hours; however, rain chances will continue.

Fall-like temperatures settle into the region Tuesday through the extended forecast. Southwest flow sets up over the region with a few shortwave troughs moving through the region. High temperatures will be primarily in the 60s and 70s and lows will be in the 50s and 60s. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the extended forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

KOFK: A few lingering showers continue to move through the region this afternoon, potentially causing some minor impacts to the terminal for another hour or so. Heading into the overnight hours, LLWS is expected to develop across the region. Showers/storms are expected to fire up overnight, potentially causing some impacts at the terminal. Could see a few isolated after midnight and after 13Z, but the best chance should be after 08Z.

KOMA/KLNK: A few lingering showers will remain possible for the first couple of hours of the TAF period with lower confidence as we move toward 19Z and beyond. We should a break in precipitation chances later this afternoon into the evening. Another chance for showers and storms is expected overnight. Had slightly better confidence in storm occurrence at KLNK, so a mention was put into prevailing conditions. Can't rule out storms at KOMA after 09Z but didn't have quite as much confidence, so held off on a mention for now. LLWS is expected to develop after midnight with better chances of impacts after 08Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.