textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued potential for ice movement is expected today for the Platte, Loup and Elkhorn rivers. With the continuous warmer temperatures, we are monitoring these areas closely. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening.

- Very High fire danger is in place across northeast Nebraska, with winds shifting northwesterly this evening to complicate fire response.

- Above seasonal temperatures continue through the week along with the potential for record highs being set this afternoon.

- Periodic chances for rain and snow are expected between Wednesday evening and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features split flow in the upper levels across much of the CONUS, with the heart of the northern stream staying just north of the area. Zooming in locally, we find ourselves behind a warm front and ahead of an incoming cold front from the northwest. Temperatures have climbed quickly this afternoon behind the warm front, despite winds under-performing and under-mixing compared the initial expectation. The warm temperatures have driven humidity values down into the 20-30% range in northeast Nebraska, with some further reduction expected before our heating tops out at 3 PM. With that said, very high fire danger will continue through the afternoon, with potential for extreme danger if winds gust to 25 or 30 mph across northeast Nebraska (10% chance). Flooding risk due to ice jamming on the Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers continues with those warm temperatures and resultant melting causing some minor jumps and dips in the hydrographs. As of now, there still is plenty of ice in the Loup River near Columbus to eventually flush out into the Platte River to cause potential issues, sustaining the risk into the next few days. Later this evening, a wind shift and gusty winds will move through behind the cold front to the northwest, with speeds briefly hitting 25-30 mph around 10 PM to 2 AM before diminishing through 6 AM.

Tuesday and Beyond:

By Tuesday, we'll see the departure of the record-breaking warmth in favor of highs in the upper 40s to low 50s (well above our normal mid 30s for this time of year). Northwesterly winds will linger through most of the day, continuing to decrease in speed into the afternoon while clouds become increasingly sparse by 6 PM. Our dry weather pattern is poised to hold on going into the mid-to-late portions of the forecast, with some form of quasi-zonal flow warding away southern moisture, making us rely on clippers and mountain- surviving moisture to result in any rain/snow locally. Highs do look to remain well-above normal in the 40s and 50s through the next week, making any of those snow chances entirely dependent on what time of day they fall.

Focusing more on any precipitation, models continue to focus on an initial clipper that moves through the area Thursday from the northwest, providing only glancing blows at trace moisture. The next shot at precipitation remains with a compact shortwave that ejects east-northeast across the Desert Southwest, making into the Central and Southern Plains early Saturday. Run-to-run model trends have the guts of the system drifting farther southward, and the latest suite of deterministic models favor Kansas and points south for any precipitation. Ensembles continue to indicate we have an outside chance at seeing something this weekend, but anything that does reach the ground will struggle to hit 0.1", and not really making a dent in our dryness so far this winter.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1116 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the next 24 hours, with the main concerns being rooted in the winds. Directions have shifted southwesterly for most of the area already, with KOMA expected to follow suit shortly. Gusts this afternoon are expected to increase to 20-25 kts before slowing down closer to 23-00z, then winds shift northwesterly between 03-05z. Strong winds at FL015 will make for low-level wind shear at KOMA and KLNK, with gusts catching up at 22-28 kts after 06z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch until 10 PM CST this evening for NEZ016-017- 031>033-042>045-050>053-067. IA...None.