textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry and breezy conditions will result in very high to extreme fire danger today, with a Red Flag Warning in Effect through 8 PM.

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances are possible on Friday, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- Cooler air arrives behind a cold front Friday. Saturday and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below freezing for some locations, followed by a gradual warm-up into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Today and Tonight...

A brief period of mid-level ridging and fleeting surface high pressure is bringing a warm, sunny and breezy day to the area today. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the 80s areawide, approximately 20 degrees above seasonal norms for mid-April. These conditions have also brought very high to extreme fire danger to the area, with a Red Flag Warning in effect through 8 PM for portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Winds will be the only limiting factors in today's fire weather setup, with sustained southerly winds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph. While over mixing is likely this afternoon, model soundings display winds on the top of the mixed layer capped around 20-25 kts. Over mixing is more likely to be realized with afternoon relative humidity values, with the low teen percentages expected in east-central Nebraska, improving to 25 percent towards far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The breezy southerly winds are expected to stick around through the overnight period.

Friday and Saturday..

A potent upper-level trough is expected to eject across the central and northern Plains on Friday, forcing a robust cold front to sweep southeast across the area. High temperatures will be quite variable across the forecast area, with temperatures depend on the amount of daytime heating and WAA prior to the front's arrival. Highs are expected to peak in the 50s across far northeast NE where the front passes through by the late morning, with the upper 70s/low 80s expected in southeast NE and southwest IA. Winds will quickly shift to northwesterly by the front, with an initial surge of 25-35 mph gusts.

Strong to severe thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front as a potent warm sector develops ahead of the boundary. Ample forcing for ascent will be met with steep lapse rates (7.5-8.5 deg/km), a modestly unstable airmass (MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg) and strong deep-layer shear. However, model guidance has consistently trended towards a faster crashing through of the cold front, leaving convective initiation along the front to likely reside east of the forecast area. Current CAM guidance has CI in far northeast KS/northwest MO. With the in mind, SPC has trimmed down our area in the current convective outlook, keeping a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Behind the front, strong CAA will cause temperatures to quickly drop. Moisture will be fairly starved behind the front. While some CAM guidance spawns light rain and rain/snow mix showers into the overnight period, model soundings reveal a dry sub-cloud layer, bringing low confidence in precipitation reaching the ground. With this in mind, I've opted to trim down both PoPs behind the front, now only peaking around 15-20% into early Saturday morning. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the mid 20s across northeast NE, increasing to the mid 30s by southeast NE and southwest IA.

The post-frontal airmass will be felt on Saturday, with high temperatures only peaking in the 50s. Overnight lows into Sunday morning will once again drop into the 20s and 30s. Take care to protect any vulnerable vegetation and unplug any garden hoses that way have been reconnected over our warm stretch.

Sunday and Beyond...

Mid-level ridging will push back into the area by the start of next week, bringing a warming trend back to the area. Sunday highs are expected to peak in the 60s, with widespread 70s on Monday, and most locations hitting the low 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday. No additional precipitation chances are currently forecasted through Wednesday. This period will have to be monitored for potential fire weather concerns, given Long range guidance does bring another trough into the area with the next chance for widespread precipitation towards the end of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period, with winds the primary concern. Southerly wind will increase into the afternoon, with gusts reaching 20-25 kts. Gusty southerly winds will continue into the overnight hours, with LLWS possible at KOMA and KLNK as 50 kt southwesterly winds work into 2000 ft AGL. A front will push southeast across the area late tomorrow morning, quickly shifting winds to northwesterly with gusts up to 25-30 kts behind the front and increasing mid- level cloud cover.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044-050-065. IA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043.