textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog may redevelop overnight (20-30% chance) in northeast Nebraska.

- Temperatures trend upwards through the remainder of the work week, topping out in the upper 60s to even 70 degrees.

- Potential is increasing for a few strong storms to join in the widespread shower chances late Thursday, and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows a shortwave pushing across the Rocky Mountain Front Range while mid/upper confluent flow fills in to the east of it. Zooming in locally, stratus lights up nighttime imagery as we find ourselves in a dreary warm air advection regime to the north of the main surface boundary stretching from northwest Texas through eastern Missouri. Model soundings this evening depict subtle lift through the lowest layers continuing into the overnight hours, with that low level saturation expected to hold and even result in spotty drizzle and mist. We've nudged up lows overnight due to the cloud cover, which will limit radiational cooling and keep ups in the mid-to-upper 30s for most of the area. Just to the west (and underneath clearer skies), temperatures drop off quickly and serve as a signal that any breaks in the clouds will tank temperatures quickly.

By sunrise tomorrow morning, the aforementioned mid/upper shortwave from Colorado will have arrived to the area, providing continued lift that still ends up being weak. CAMs are similarly skeptical, showing limited rainfall output as it passes through the area, due to the main wave following its own limb of ambient vorticity directly to its east and limiting PVA. As it moves through, the western edge of the clouds will begin eroding, with peeks of sunshine arriving to central to northeast Nebraska by 3 PM. Temperatures will respond in turn, topping out in the 50s to nearly 60 degrees for points that see some sunshine.

Thursday and Beyond:

Our eyes turn westward Thursday, watching the development of a neutrally tilting longwave through that will help strengthen a northward mass response across the pains to its east. That southerly flow will help boost temperatures and send a swath of strong moisture advection northward from the Southern Plains that arrives during the evening/overnight hours. Highs during the day will see a big jump into the mid/upper 60s, giving us that taste of late spring with less dry air than our more recent warm spells. During the evening into the overnight hours, a potent low-level jet will nose into the forecast area, increasing the ambient shear and providing a focus for ascent that could allow showers/storms reach modestly unstable lapse rates aloft. Showers and storms will lift north-northeast into the overnight hours, giving us our first meaningful rainfall in a while, while also giving us the year's first chances at seeing severe hail.

By Friday morning, the focus of the low-level jet will have have shifted to the northeast and we'll find ourselves focusing on how much sun we can get during the morning and afternoon hours to help fuel destabilization. We'll find a surface trough/warm front stretching from northwest Kansas into northeast Nebraska, with steep lapse rates aloft and gusty winds (30-40 mph) developing to bring our best chance for showers, and a few strong storms. Latest runs of the ensemble machine learning guidance indicates that the threat for any severe storms will be greatest across northeast Kansas into far southeast, where the main surface boundary intersects with an unstable and highly sheared (40 kts or more) vertical profile during the afternoon hours. Any showers and storms that do form in the warm sector will shift east of the area by the evening hours, leaving us with lingering post-frontal precipitation and much cooler air going into early Saturday. As temperatures fall, we could see some of the rain turn to snow with gusty winds following behind the main system into early Saturday.

With the larger system from the late week continuing to deepen and sweep off to the northeast, we'll find westerly winds carrying dry but warm winds that help us rebound from a cool morning into the afternoon with highs forecast to reach the mid 50s. A subtropical branch of the jet stream will ward away any moisture return to the south and east of the forecast area through Sunday and Monday, keeping the dry trend and warmer temperatures going. Though models are in poor agreement at this point of the forecast, Tuesday into Wednesday will be the next period to watch for impactful weather as another deep trough swings into the Plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1107 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Morning fog has been slow to dissipate, with a longer timeline than forecast. Have maintained IFR cigs across the area through 20Z when we expect to see some clearing in northeast Nebraska and clouds to push closer to FL015 at KLNK and KOMA. Some light drizzle has been reported in western Iowa and the Omaha area. This may (30%) continue through the evening with a shower possible in the same areas (<20% chance).

Visibility restrictions should also lift by 20Z before redeveloping overnight tonight with greatest restrictions forecast in northeast Nebraska. Winds will be light and variable with the most common direction being from the south.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.