textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will cool into the 30s tonight, with temperatures near freezing in parts of northeast Nebraska.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring very high to extreme fire danger again for Monday and Wednesday.

- The next good chance for rain and thunderstorms arrives during the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The broad upper-level trough that has been responsible for active weather across the United States will finally begin to move into the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. In it's wake, an upper- level ridge will gradually build into the Great Plains through early next week. A warming trend begins on Sunday as this occurs. It will start cold on Sunday with near freezing temperatures across most of the area. By afternoon, temperatures rebound into the 60s for much of the area. A weak disturbance will also pass north of the area, increasing north winds. This disturbance does little to impede the warming trend. Temperatures start in the 30s on Monday before quickly climbing through the 70s during the afternoon. Increasing southerly winds will help achieve this, but with dry conditions in place, very high fire danger is expected to occur. Temperatures climb further still on Tuesday as 80s return to the forecast. Surface high pressure near the area should help keep winds light, limiting fire danger. By Wednesday lee troughing ramps up as our next upper-level trough begins to approach the Great Plains. Increasing southerly winds through the afternoon and strong winds by evening ahead of any meaningful moisture return will likely cause another day of very high to perhaps extreme fire danger.

Thursday onward sees the beginnings of a pattern shift for the region. The aforementioned next trough is currently forecast to eject into the northern Great Plains on Thursday. There remains some model uncertainty on the exact placement and strength of this feature, but a general agreement is beginning to develop. In this event, an area of low pressure is likely to develop and lift north towards Manitoba by Thursday evening, a cold front will extend south of the low. It appears likely that the cold front will be near our area by Thursday evening. Along and ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms are expected. With it being mid-April, severe weather with any thunderstorms is at least a consideration, though those details remain unclear. In any case, this front is anticipated to move through the region Thursday night into Friday. Cooler temperatures are likely in the wake of this front. There may be lingering precipitation potential also. As this trough continues east by next weekend, a return to warmer and drier weather is probable.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 503 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast period. High pressure will move over the region today, with lighter winds (5-10kts) through the period. Winds will turn to the northwest after sunrise, shifting to the east-southeast this evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.