textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain chilly through the weekend with highs climbing into the mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s.

- A warming trend will begin to take hold and lift temperatures into the low 60s by Wednesday.

- A period of calm weather will persist through the beginning of the week, with our next chance at rain being Wednesday (20%).

- A strong storm system is on track to bring widespread precipitation to the area next Friday into the weekend, but still lots of details to work out on track and timing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Still quiet across the region today with an upper level ridge axis pushing through with surface high pressure over the IA/IL/MO border area. Southerly winds on the back side of the high were starting to pick up a bit, with a few gusts around 20 mph in northeast NE. Despite the stronger southerly flow, temperatures were similar to those of yesterday, holding steady in the mid 40s as of 1 PM. Should also note a shortwave trough currently over the Four Corners region with associated precip extending into western KS, though guidance remains in good agreement that this wave and precip stay to our south. Sunday will be similar to today, though a few degrees warmer.

The warming trend will continue through the first part of the work week with highs around 60 by Wednesday as upper level ridging amplifies over the central CONUS and southerly low level flow continues to strengthen. In fact, winds look to get pretty gusty on Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough digs in to the western CONUS and a surface low develops over eastern WY and moves into the Dakotas, leading to a tightening pressure gradient over the forecast area. EPS mean gusts are in the 30-40 mph range with model soundings suggesting 40+ mph at the top of the mixed layer. There may be some fire concerns for any unharvested fields, though with RH favored to stay in the 50s and 60s, these concerns are currently relatively small. By Wednesday evening, a cold front looks to slide through the area and potentially bring some showers, though guidance continues to trend drier with the better moisture plume being to our east. Chances are now around 20% for much of the area.

Higher precip chances will start to arrive Thursday night and last into the weekend. The general idea is that another trough will move into the western CONUS Thursday with surface low pressure developing east of the Rockies. Increasing warm air and moisture advection ahead of the low is expected to lead to at least some spotty showers by late Thursday night/Friday morning. The actual surface low and trough then look to start passing through Friday night into Saturday, bringing widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area (80-90% chance of precip). There continues to be some decent spread in timing and track of the system which will significantly impact precip duration and potentially type, as there will be snow on the northwest side of the low. However, a vast majority of guidance keeps it rain for us, with ensembles suggesting just a 5-10% chance of some snow clipping our area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing high clouds. A few pieces of guidance suggest some patchy fog in river valleys again Sunday morning, but chances are only around 10%. Winds will remain southeasterly, with some gusts of 18-22 kts at OFK and LNK this afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.