textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme fire danger today with south-southwest winds gusting 35 to 45 mph and RH falling into the teens and possibly single digits. High to very high fire danger will persist on Sunday.

- 60s return Saturday, followed by 70s and 80s Sunday into Monday. Cooler thereafter with 50s and 60s into next weekend.

- Light rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday (20-40%) with more widespread precipitation now favored to hold off until Friday or Saturday (40-60% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a broad but low- amplitude ridge slowly progressing eastward from the Intermountain West into the High Plains, while northwesterly flow remains across the eastern half. Surface observations reveal little in terms of nearby boundaries, with stout high pressure over the Ohio River Valley squashing the northern extent of any moisture at the surface locally and helping to increase the pressure gradient locally. The 18z KOAX sounding features extremely dry air at 850 and 600 mb, with those clouds at 700 mb showing up in a very thin layer closer to saturation. Temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s this afternoon have allowed us to mix into the lower levels of that dry air and drop humidity values to 10-20% , joined by winds that have sent gusts to 35-45 mph already this afternoon. Over the course of the afternoon, these dry conditions will continue while those strong gusts become more widespread, resulting in several hours of extreme fire danger for the entire area. For this, a Red Flag Warning is in effect through 9 PM, when temperatures and wind speeds drop into the overnight hours. Highs in the 60s will still feel rather chilly thanks to the cutting wind, but warming over the next couple of days will have us questioning what season we are in once again.

Sunday and Monday:

The main story to start the week will be increasing temperatures, brought about by the approaching ridge that helps build low-level warmth across the High Plains that spreads eastward during the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday. Highs Sunday are currently slated to reach the upper 70s to just over 80 across the area, while Monday eyeballs record maximum temperatures. Here lately when we talk about warming temperatures, that has included cautionary messaging about fire danger as well. As of now, Sunday's winds will quiet by the time we get warm, with those wind speeds staying subdued Monday as well. This should keep fire danger limited to very high, and leave us without another Red Flag Warning despite the heat. Models generally favor dry conditions through these two days, with the winds of change arriving overnight into Tuesday to take temps back down into the 50s and 60s through a good chuck of the remaining week.

Tuesday and Beyond:

By Tuesday, the aforementioned cold front will have swept through the forecast area, quickly scouring away low-level moisture and opening the door for cooler air to pour in from the north. Cooler, but seasonable temperatures will settle in for the remainder of the week, driven by a pattern change away from the persistent ridge over the Desert Southwest. Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft will take over, with a number of shortwaves moving through the Great Plains through the latter half of the week. While this will increase the overall precipitation activity compared to where we've been at over the past few weeks, we'll still be a far cry from making any dents in our dry conditions. If you were to pick a day or two for the best chances for widespread rain, the first comes as a shortwave deepens to the south of the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This system will clip southeast Nebraska with less than 0.5" of rainfall, while temperatures bottom out at or just above freezing, limiting concerns for slickness. The best chance for widespread rainfall for the area arrives Friday afternoon next week, where a deep, positively-tilted trough cuts off to the southwest of the area and lingers into Saturday. Model solutions aren't quite sure if there will a considerable dry punch after the initial rain chances associated with the front edge of the wave leaves the area, keeping confidence limited as to just how much rain we could get. Nonetheless, even a widespread quarter to half inch of rainfall would go a very long way to help kick start the spring green-up that has been lagging behind our warm temperatures so far this year.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. High level clouds will continue to move into the region from the west over the next several hours. Winds are expected to decrease after sunset; however, expect some low-level wind shear to develop after 05Z for the terminals.

CLIMATE

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.......Monday, March 30th..........

...... FORECAST..... OLD RECORD

Lincoln, NE.. 87F .... 88 in 1917 Omaha, NE.... 87F .... 89 in 1968 Tekamah, NE . 86F .... 81 in 2015 Falls City .. 88F .... 90 in 1986 Norfolk, NE . 85F .... 87 in 1968 Valley, NE... 85F .... 78 in 2012

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091.