textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and mostly quiet weather continues through Friday, with only a few light showers possible.

- Heat builds this weekend, with the hottest conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Heat index values may reach 105 to 110 degrees.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist into next week, with periodic evening and overnight thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Objective analysis and water vapor imagery this afternoon reveal generally zonal flow across much of the central Plains, with a shortwave disturbance pushing toward the Ozark Plateau and a nearly stationary front draped just south of the NE/KS border. Isolated to widely scattered warm air advection driven showers will persist across portions of the area today, with PoPs generally in the 15-30% range. Limited instability (MUCAPE < 250 J/kg), should keep thunder potential low. Rainfall amounts will also be light, with most locations only peaking at a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Persistent cloud cover will hold afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. A few showers may linger into early Friday morning across southeast NE and southwest IA near the stalled boundary.

Calm and mild conditions continue Friday, with a few more breaks in the clouds expected by afternoon. Highs should top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. A stray shower or storm may graze southeast NE and southwest IA Friday evening into Friday night along a departing surface low and frontal boundary. PoPs currently peak around 15%, as the better moisture and forcing remain to our south.

Saturday and Beyond...

A pattern shift arrives this weekend into early next week as an amplifying trough digs into the Intermountain West and Front Range, forcing a strengthening ridge into the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, temperatures will climb through the weekend. Saturday highs are expected to rise into the 80s as a warm front advances northward across the region. A few afternoon and evening showers and storms may develop along the lifting warm front, primarily across northeast NE and western IA, where PoPs peak around 15-30%.

The brunt of the heat still looks to arrive Sunday and Monday as strong moisture and warm air advection become focused into the region. High temperatures both days are forecast to remain in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Strong southerly low-level flow will bring wind gusts of 25-35 mph while ushering in dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This combination of heat and humidity will pus heat index values into the 100 to 110 degree range. Heat headlines will likely be needed for portions of the area, though confidence remains lower in the exact placement of 105 or 110 degree heat index values.

By Monday, a strong mid-level jet streak is forecast to round the base of the western trough and shift into the northern Plains. This should act to damped the ridge somewhat and bring precipitation chances back into the area. From Monday onward, nightly PoPs of 20- 40% remain in the forecast. Plenty of instability is expected to build across the region during the period, though the strong to severe storm potential will likely depend on the timing and placement of shortwave disturbances rounding the trough and providing sufficient forcing for ascent. Confidence in exact timing and location of these features remain low at this range.

Most GEFS, EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble members show a QPF signal somewhere in or near the area each night. EPS- and GEFS-based machine learning guidance also indicate a 5-15% probability of severe weather Monday through Wednesday. Pattern recognition supports the potential for a nocturnal MCS early next week as a strengthening low-level jet transports rich moistures and elevated instability into the region along the periphery of the ridge. However, confidence in timing and placement remains low and will depend on subtle shortwave timing and upstream convective initiation.

Temperatures only take a modest step down Tuesday through the remainder of the work week, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s as mid- to upper-level high pressure remains centered over the Mid-South. Dewpoints will continue to hold in the mid 60s to low 70s, keeping daily maximum heat index values in the 95-105 degree range. Any organized overnight convection could locally temper the heat through cloud cover and outflow, though the broader hot and humid pattern may persist until stronger heights falls arrive.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. Spotty, light rain showers will continue into the afternoon, gradually decreasing in coverage. More widespread showers, with a few rumbles of thunder possible, are expected into the afternoon and evening in far southeast Nebraska, though these showers are expected to remain south of KLNK. Winds will remain calm and generally out of the east. A broken to overcast cloud deck will will continue around FL050-080 before gradually breaking up and improving Friday morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.