textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunday won't be as warm as Saturday and may bring the development of some non-supercell funnel clouds.

- Warmer weather builds in Monday lasting through much of the week. Highs trend upwards with continued rain chances that could thwart extreme heat.

NEW PATTERN

An upper trof - crashing through Seattle on Monday - drives through the High Plains two days later, bringing a cold front Wednesday night and attendant chance PoPs (10 west - 70% east).

Wednesday afternoon and evening have been highlighted by the SPC with a 15% chance for severe weather in an area that stretches from the Canadian border to about Blair, NE and Des Moines, IA. There will be lots of instability and steep lapse rates with the high dewpoints and temperatures in place. Storm modes may begin as supercells capable of tornadoes, but shear vectors are nearly aligned with the progged front, meaning they may coalesce into clusters quickly.

Temps, while cooler on Thursday, will actually remain just above normal with afternoon maximums in the 80s.

Global deterministic models begin to diverge in solutions from this point, but keep regular chances for summer showers and storms parading through the Great Plains as the mid-lattitude jet's proximity assures regular chances as precip.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR ceilings at the start of the TAF period are expected to gradually deteriorate to MVFR from south to north Sunday morning. A few spotty showers and storms will also be possible throughout the day Sunday. While exact timing and location of storms remains uncertain, the best chance for thunder will be from 17-20Z at KLNK and 18-22Z at KOMA. If precipitation manages to reach as far north as KOFK, the highest chance for storms looks to be from 19-23Z. VFR conditions are expected to return by 00Z this evening at all three TAF sites. Winds will remain out of the south/southeast at 10 to 12 kts, with occasional gusts up to 20 kts possible.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

3-7" or more fell in the Turkey/Swan Creek basins late Friday evening into the overnight hours, with additional rainfall ending up in the Big Blue basin as well. Turkey Creek has reacted strongly near De Witt, which is forecast to hit minor flood stage Saturday evening, while local reaches of the Big Blue wait until Monday/Tuesday to crest in action to flood stage. Confidence in the forecasts for the Big Blue will increase as we go forward, with potential flood warning to be issued if the current forecast near Dorchester holds going forward.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.