textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy tomorrow, with gusts out of the southwest at 25-35 mph developing late-morning, lasting through the afternoon. - Temperatures will warm up into the 50s next week, with 60s forecast by Christmas day.

- Dry conditions are expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features largely zonal flow that is only slightly depressed heading into the Great Lakes, while only mid and high clouds waft along the NE/KS and IA/MO borders locally. Northwesterly winds that were gusting to 25-30 mph late this morning have trended lighter, with a wind shift poised to send directions southwesterly and light overnight into early tomorrow. This morning's warm conditions won't be reproduced tonight/tomorrow morning, as we clear out almost completely aside from a few stray high clouds that will allow for radiational cooling to occur and drive temperatures down into the low 20s.

Tomorrow, the low-level thermal profile will get a boost as the surface pressure gradient tightens and allows for warming southwesterly winds that will gust in the 25-35 mph range, with the strongest wind gusts across northeast Nebraska. If temperatures over-perform the current forecast by a good margin (on the order of 5 degrees above the forecast 45-49 degrees) we could flirt with increased fire danger. Bias corrected guidance like the NBM are still planning on lighter winds compared to the forecast while there is upward potential to gust speeds according to the HRRR/RAP. By late evening, winds will be trending downward and slightly increased cloud cover to start the night will keep lows from dipping too far, and should have them hovering near to just above freezing at their lowest.

Monday and Beyond:

To start the work week the mid/upper zonal flow from the weekend should transition into ridging centered over the Great Plains and the jet stream's axis will have been pushed up to the ND/Canada area. As a result, the temperatures during the week will have folks considering celebrating Christmas dinner outside rather than huddled next to a fire. Highs that were in the 40s for Sat/Sun will give way to temperatures in the 50s, with the warmest day of them all being Christmas. Chances for rain will also be in short supply, as any passing chances for rain get relegated north of the area, closer to the main jet stream axis. How warm are we thinking Christmas is going to be? Here is what we have as of now, compared to the records for Omaha, Lincoln and Norfolk:

.....Fcst..Record..... Omaha 61 57 (1946) Lincoln 65 65 (1889) Norfolk 64 63 (1963)

By the time the weekend arrives, precipitation chance will be on the increase as action along the Pacific Coast trends southward and some form of trough sneaks between what will be a bifurcated flow pattern. Agreement on exactly what it will look like and when it arrives is pretty poor as of now, but we should see something in the form of rain with snow being a long shot due to the warmer pattern.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 533 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. Winds turn out of the south tonight, with speeds increasing and gusts developing by mid to late morning at all sites through the end of the TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.