textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and windy conditions this afternoon will lead to extreme fire danger through 8 PM.

- Temperatures will cool into the 30s tonight, with temperatures near freezing in parts of northeast Nebraska.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring very high to extreme fire danger again for Monday and Wednesday.

- The next good chance for rain and thunderstorms arrives in the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The axis of a long wave trough is pushing east across the region today with a couple of embedded short wave circulations. Cold air advection rules the region with widespread northwesterly flow. The cold advection is deep and with quite a bit of sunshine has actually allowed for a rather deeply mixed boundary layer. This in combination with the added forcing for vertical motion with the embedded short wave troughs has led to the development of light convective rain showers or sprinkles west of the area at mid day. These should continue to move southeast, and expect that some locations from Albion toward Lincoln may experience sprinkles or even enough of a shower to wet the sidewalk this afternoon. Don't believe this convection will be deep enough to support lightning, but with the Red Flag conditions in the area (deep mixing has also led to low RH at the surface and wind gusts of 30-35 mph), any rogue lightning strike could be an issue. Winds continue through sunset, although gradually decreasing. This should allow for some efficient cooling a few hours after sunset, but most guidance and observational data suggests that there should be enough of a pressure gradient overnight to keep a breeze going and perhaps keep overnight lows at or above the freezing mark. So for now, have not issued any freeze products overnight, and would also like to note that the growing season has not necessarily progressed to the point of issuing freeze warnings in a chunk of northeast Nebraska. Farther south though, it is less likely to reach the freezing mark.

Another cool front pushes through Sunday morning and winds may gust to 20 mph in the morning hours before settling down in the afternoon. Temperatures warm into the lower 60s, and with lighter afternoon winds it should be a rather pleasant day.

Upper level ridging builds into the Central Plains for Monday through Wednesday with a warming trend bring temps into the upper 80s by late Wednesday. Both Monday and Wednesday will be warm, dry, and windy...with Wednesday probably being warmer and windier. Both of these days could see very high to extreme fire danger.

Model guidance is quite consistent in a longer wave trough taking shape over the northwest CONUS through this time, and ejecting into the Northern Plains by Thursday. Depending on timing of the system, this could bring one or more days of thunderstorm chances, with a potentially favorable setup for strong to severe storms, and eyes will be on the time period from late Wednesday into Friday...with Thursday afternoon and evening seeming to be the most likely time based on current model guidance timing the system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Wind gusts 25 to 30 kts are expected through 01Z, but will decrease at that time and turn out of the southwest overnight. Between 11 and 15Z, a cold front will bring another wind shift out of the northwest.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065. IA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043.