textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Regular chances for showers and thunderstorms continue with more thunderstorms in the forecast for this evening, especially along and east of the Missouri River.

- A summer-like pattern sets up next week keeping warm and muggy weather in place with additional daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

We've seen a couple isolated storms develop this evening, some along a boundary stretching south from ongoing storms in South Dakota, and a couple others around the Omaha/Council Bluffs area. Mid-level dry air is making storm development difficult, though if storms do develop there is 2000J/kg+ of CAPE, and 1400J/kg of DCAPE. Shear is modest (75m2/s2 of sfc-1km SRH), lending to observed storms not holding together long, but occasional low-to-mid level rotation was observed in the earlier cell over Douglas County. The low tornado threat is only diminishing, making primary hazards large hail and damaging winds. Storms that develop this evening should clear out by 5AM, with clearing skies Monday morning.

Ridging starts to build up on Monday over our area with subsidence dampening storm potential Monday afternoon despite a shortwave moving over our area. CAMs show a few isolated storms through the afternoon, so introduced a 15-20% chance for a few isolated storms. Temperatures expected to warm into the mid-to- upper 80s during the afternoon. A more substantial shortwave triggers convection over western Nebraska during the afternoon, likely developing into an MCS through the evening. This could bring us another chance for showers and storms across our far western counties early Tuesday, though most guidance has it dissipating before it gets any farther east.

We continue to see ridging amplify across the Central Plains through midweek, with a moisture plume triggering storms along the western flank of the ridge. Nightly potential for MCS development and propagation eastward appears likely, with increasing chances for storms to make it into eastern Nebraska Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Thursday the Ridge shifts far enough eastward for the moisture plume to run straight up through our area, developing storms across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa Thursday afternoon through the evening.

Going into the weekend, the ridge shifts far enough eastward that that moisture plume drops southeast into Missouri, but a developing surface Low over the Dakotas triggers more chances for showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening. Through the weekend we see a baroclinic weather pattern set up with strong ridging building up to our north, and a series of two shortwave troughs moving northeast into Nebraska through the weekend. This will keep chances for showers and storms for Saturday and Sunday, while increased warm-air advection from enhanced southerly flow will warm temperatures back into the upper 80s to near 90.

Extreme heat appears possible next week with ample moisture contributing to concerning heat indices.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Storms should stay mostly clear of the terminals for the rest of the night, though we do still have a 20% chance of a storm impacting KOMA through 07Z. Mostly clear skies expected through morning with winds becoming northwesterly by around 10Z. Winds continue to shift toward northerly then northeasterly by midday Monday with a 15-20% chance for a few isolated showers/storms Monday afternoon into the evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.