textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding will continue on rivers, creeks, and streams in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa into the weekend and possibly early next week.

- Expect dry weather into next week along with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Aside from continued river flooding in southeast NE, pretty quiet across the area weather-wise this evening. Surface ridging remained in control with the surface high centered over WI. To the northwest, a shortwave trough was moving along the MT/Canadian border and will continue eastward through the day on Saturday. At the surface, a low will spin up and move through ND or just along the Canadian border, eventually dragging a cold front through the forecast area Saturday afternoon/evening. A few CAMs do show some light simulated radar returns along the boundary as it moves through, but looking at associated soundings, cloud bases will be pretty high with quite a bit of dry air below, so even if those returns pan out, not expecting much, if anything to reach the ground. We'll call it about a 5% chance of seeing anything.

Otherwise, of note, temperatures today ended up about 5 to 9 degrees warmer than model consensus, with dewpoints 5 to 10 degrees lower, likely owing to some degree of bias correction within model blends. Therefore, bumped up temperatures a bit on Saturday and decreased dewpoints the next several days. While fire concerns remain fairly low with the recent rain, things will start to dry out, especially as we start to see more sunshine and some breezier days into next week. Expect highs in the 70s on Saturday, with mid 60s to lower 70s Sunday and Monday. Strong southerly low level flow returns on Tuesday, allowing temperatures to climb back into the 70s to perhaps lower 80s. A surface boundary will sag south into the area sometime Wednesday into Thursday, though temperatures will see little change through the remainder of the week. With a little moisture in place and the boundary lingering in the area, not going to completely rule out a few pop up showers at times. However, with a lack of larger scale and stronger forcing for ascent, and with a vast majority of guidance keeping us completely dry, chances will remain below 10%.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period with mostly clear skies. Patchy fog may develop overnight in river valleys and low-lying areas, though the probability of impacts at the terminals remains low (15% chance). Winds will remain southerly to southeasterly, with gusts of 20-25 kts at KLNK and KOFK during the day Saturday. Winds will ease into the evening, with a cold front shifting winds to northerly towards the end of the forecast period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.