textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing storms will contribute to damaging wind gusts, a few quarter-sized hailstones, and flash flooding for areas of northeast Nebraska into western Iowa through 6 AM.

- There's an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe storms Friday afternoon/evening capable of strong damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and a tornado or two.

- Another round of storms may be possible Saturday evening and night, however it will depend on how storms move through Friday night.

- Hot weather continues with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Heat indicies remain in the mid 90s to around 100.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Tonight:

An arm of convection has developed across northeast Nebraska into western Iowa this evening, largely along a remnant outflow boundary from an earlier South Dakotan MCS. These storms have been tricky nail down, and generally late to the part, but have developed nevertheless and have been exhibiting extremely slow storm motions and back-building. This area has sufficient instability and shear to maintain the current swath location-wise, with a low-level jet set to continue through much of the overnight hours. These storms have been growing upscale rather quickly over the last hour, diminishing the hail threat and increasing excessive rainfall concerns. Winds are also possible with any collapsing portions of the clusters, with higher-end wind (and possibly a tornado) possible with any grouping of storms that orients itself into a bow. Latest runs of the CAMs have been under-doing coverage of storms so far, but do progress a compact MCS to the southeast through 6 AM. As of now, both a Severe Thunderstorm and a Flash Flood Watch have been issued for the same area, further highlighting the threat through 6 AM.

Friday and Saturday (Fourth of July):

With the poor handling of evening convection by the current suite of models, tomorrow's convective forecast continues to have a good deal of uncertainty. Highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the 95-102 degree range.

Storms for tomorrow will also be of concern, with the morning convective activity likely leaving some kind of outflow boundary draped from west to east across eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa. This will serve as a good initiating boundary during the late afternoon and evening hours for thunderstorms that will once again grow upscale before developing eastward out of the forecast area. All hazards will be on the table (including a tornado or two), with high-end wind speeds (greater than 70 mph) being depicted by several runs of the HRRR with a more organized bowing structure. Shower and storm chances look to carry into the overnight and early hours of the Forth of July, which could take the wind out of the convective sails for the afternoon and evening hours. Parameterized models indicate the better shower and storm coverage will be to the east of the forecast area, which could be a boon for anyone hoping to celebrate outdoors. Nevertheless, most if not the whole area will be dealing with heat, so messaging hydration will be the key for anyone spending a prolonged period outside.

Sunday and Beyond:

After early morning convection left over from the fourth is kicked to the south and east, seemingly quieter weather is looking to set up Sunday and Monday. We'll see the mid/upper pattern shift the eastern edge of the ridge east of the forecast area, giving us more predictable heat as opposed to the recent highs that were easily affected by daytime cloudiness. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast to start the week, increasing Tuesday and Wednesday into the low-to-mid 90s as the ridge moves farther east. Showers and storms look increasingly likely mid-week as a shortwave moves through the top of the ridge, but weak forcing ascent and incoming convection from the west will make the timing and intensity hard to nail down until we get closer.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Strong to severe t-storms have developed just north of KOFK tonight and are expected to back-build over the aerodrome through about 3am. They'll finally move off to the east and leave the area dry after that. Expect OMA and LNK to remain dry, but storm development has been hard to pin down all day and confidence is lower than normal.

After storms quiet down, partly cloudy skies are forecast for the majority of Friday before more thunderstorm development on Friday evening. Again, timing is questionable, but current thinking is more storm initiation around the 10pm time period. Lots of uncertainty in placement and timing remains this far out. Have added them to KOMA and KLNK, but KOFK could easily see some storms Friday night as well.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for NEZ011-012- 015>018-031>034. IA...Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT early this morning for IAZ043-055- 056.