textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread fog, with areas of dense fog, is expected overnight into Sunday morning.

- A brief warmup into the 70s is expected Sunday and Monday. Spotty showers (20% chance) remain possible.

- Widespread rain and thunderstorm chances (90%+) return late Monday through Thursday. Expected rainfall totals of 2-4+ inches may bring a flooding concern to area rivers and streams.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Tonight and Sunday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this evening depicts broad mid-level ridging over the central CONUS, sandwiched between an incoming western trough and nor'easter. A few peaks of sunshine have allowed afternoon highs to reach the mid 70s at most locations earlier today, though saturated soils and continued low-level moisture advection kept dew points in the mid 60s, creating a rather muggy day.

Attention now turns to overnight fog development as a corridor or surface high pressure slides into northeast Nebraska, calming winds. As previously alluded to, grounds remain saturated with moist low- level profiles, bringing the first of what will likely be several days of overnight/morning fog. Widespread fog is expected to develop overnight, with areas of dense fog expected, especially towards east- central and northeast Nebraska where winds remain the calmest.

Fog and lingering low-level stratus will be slow to break up and improve after daybreak Sunday. Sunshine through the day will likely be limited to a few pockets, with highs peaking in the low to mid 70s. Scattered, light rain showers and patchy drizzle is expected Sunday afternoon (15-20% PoPs). Accumulations will be limited to a few hundredths of an inch. Fog development is expected again into Monday morning, with patchy areas of dense fog possible.

Monday...

Another round of morning fog is expected to gradually improve after sunrise on Monday, before a weak shortwave disturbance brings another chance for scattered showers (15-30% PoPs). Mostly cloudy skies will keep high temperatures confined to the low to mid 70s. Precipitation chances increase again late Monday evening into Tuesday.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Into the work week, an amplifying mid- and upper-level trough will dig into the Desert Southwest before becoming cutoff and slowly tracking northeast through the Plains and into the region. Ahead of the system, strong moisture advection will pull into the region from the gulf, while the remnants of Hurricane Polo will also get swept up into the flow later in the work week to aid in the fairly impressive moisture profiles.

The incoming system will push a cold front into the region late Monday into early Tuesday, bringing the first round of 80-95% PoPs. The front will then stall draped across north-central Kansas into southeast NE and southern Iowa. Additional piece of shortwave energy and pulses in the LLJ will support multiple chances of showers and storms through the work week. PWAT values will be impressive for late September, in the 1.70-2.00 range (maximized across southeast NE and southwest IA). The repeated rounds of rain on already saturated soil will bring a flooding concern. Flash flooding remains possible, though exact rainfall rates and gaps in precipitation will determine how widespread the concern is. The larger concern will likely be area river and stream flooding.

The continued cloud cover will keep high temperatures generally in the 60s with overnight lows in the upper 50s. PoPs of 40-75% continue through Thursday, with the highest values across southeast NE and southwest IA. Rainfall totals are expected in the 2-4" range through the period, support by both NBM and WPC QPF guidance. Limited instability through the period will limit the potential for strong to severe storms.

Looking further ahead, the trough is expected to pull to the east next weekend, sweeping away the precipitation chances and cloud cover with it. Zonal to northwesterly flow is expected to return behind the system, keep cooler highs generally in the 60s. Under this pattern, CPC's 8-14 precipitation outlook (Valid October 4-10) leans below normal (40-50% probability).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail across portions of northeast Nebraska this evening, with scattered showers possible (20% chance) across northeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Further south, pockets of both VFR and MVFR ceilings prevail. Widespread fog and low- level stratus will develop overnight, with IFR to LIFR conditions expected at each terminal by 27/09Z. Conditions will be slow to improve after sunrise Sunday morning, with a return to VFR conditions expected in the final few hours of the forecast period. Winds will remain calm (aside for a few evening gusts at 12-18 kts) and out of the southeast, backing to northeasterly Sunday morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.