textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-normal temperatures continue, with highs in the 40s and 50s today and Saturday, warming into the 50s and 60s Sunday into Monday.

- Ongoing warmth increases the potential for river ice breakup and ice jams. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers.

- Periodic precipitation chances (15-30%) return Tuesday and persist through the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict a mid- to upper-level ridge axis inching into the central and southern Plains. A cold front that moved through this morning ushered in a brief round of CAA, holding afternoon highs in the 40s to low 50s. While this is roughly 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, temperatures remain around 10 degrees above seasonal norms for early February. Another shortwave disturbance pivoting into the Upper Midwest will drive a secondary cold front through the region this evening into Saturday morning. Behind this front, winds will gradually veer to southerly on Saturday, with gusts increasing to 25 to 35 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures on Saturday will be similar to today, generally in the 40s, with the low 50s possible across portions of east- central Nebraska.

The primary concern through the next few days will be the potential for ice jams as continued mild temperatures promote river ice breakup and movement. This increases the risk for ice to become lodged and cause sudden rises in water levels. Accordingly, a Flood Watch will remain in effect through Monday evening for the Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers. River gauges and observational reports will be monitored closely through this period.

Sunday and Beyond...

The aforementioned ridge will persist across the central Plains in the beginning of the work week, though it will gradually dampen with time. Associated WAA will allow temperatures to continue warming, with highs on Sunday expected to reach the 50s and low 60s. Monday appears to be the warmest day of the period, with widespread highs in the 60s. Portions of east-central Nebraska may approach 70 degrees, with a 50% probability per the NBM.

The first in a series of shortwave disturbances will arrive on Tuesday, pushing a cold front through the area and nudging highs back into the 40s to low 50s. The remainder of the work week will feature generally zonal flow aloft punctuated by additional passing disturbances, resulting in highs largely in the 40s. These disturbances will also bring the next opportunity for precipitation, with 15-30% PoPs returning Tuesday and persisting through at least Friday. Despite the extended stretch of PoPs, dry periods are expected to be more common than wet ones. Long-range guidance continues to show considerable variability in the timing and placement of individual disturbances, with low run-to-run consistency. However, one consistent signal is limited available moisture. The 50th percentile of total QPF from both the GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS remain under 0.05" through the period, with only a 10- 20% probability of exceeding 0.10".

Precipitation type will also require monitoring, as overnight lows generally fall into the 20s from Wednesday onward. Both GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFDS keep the better moisture and snowfall potential north of the area, with a 10-20% probability of at least one inch of snow currently confined to northeast Nebraska. Given these factors, confidence in both precipitation timing and type remain low in the extended forecast. Details are expected to become more refined as long-range guidance converges on the track and evolution of these disturbances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

MVFR ceilings will erode within the next hour at OFK. VFR conditions then prevail for all terminals through the period. North winds are slowly weakening this evening. Winds become light and variable tonight as they slowly back around to the southeast by morning. Strengthening southeast winds are expected by tomorrow afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NEZ016-017-031>033- 042>045-050>053-067. IA...None.