textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms overspread the area later today, with multiple rounds of rain possible. Total rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches will be common, with the lowest amounts likely in far southern NE and far southwest IA.

- There is a small potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms between 4 AM and 1 PM Thursday, mainly near and south of a Crete to Lincoln to Omaha to Harlan line. Hail will be the primary hazard.

- Another round of thunderstorms, some potentially severe is possible on Friday. These storms will be more widely scattered, but potentially more intense than the Wed/Thurs system.

- Seasonal temperatures and mainly dry conditions return for the weekend through middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A broad plume of mid and upper level southwesterly flow with high moisture content was overspreading the region this morning. A strong mid level short wave trough near the UT/AX border was tracking east and will eventually turn toward the northeast and track over the local area early Thursday. Some embedded weak lead mid level short wave energy is embedded in the southwesterly flow...one of which recently passed east into eastern IA, another nearly overhead at mid day, yet another moving into central NE, and a stronger one over south central CO. As each of these features pass overhead, we'll see an increase in shower and storm coverage so rain will essentially come in waves over the next 24 hours until the main negatively tilted short wave trough passes through and subsidence overtakes. Guidance is quite consistent with rainfall amounts, and much of the area can expect 0.5 to 1.5 inches of very welcome rainfall. A few hot spots could even see more, with the best chance over northeast NE and west central IA. But in the same breath, expect that a few folks will be disappointed and end up below that half inch mark, with the greatest potential for lighter rainfall being in far southern NE and far southwest IA. At this point, any and all rain is quite welcome.

The severe weather potential late tonight through mid day Thursday is not exactly clear cut, and "potential" is probably the key word. The initial focus will be near and north of the advancing warm front from around 4 AM to 10 AM. Most unstable parcels rooted around 1 km AGL just north of the warm front will have 500-800 J/kg of CAPE, and effective shear profiles may be sufficient for mid level mesocyclone development, possibly supporting marginally severe hail as the arcing line of thunderstorms lifts northeast. Then from roughly 10 AM and 1 PM, the surface low pressure will track from far southeast NE into southwest IA. The warm sector immediately ahead of the surface low is likely to have surface based parcels with around 1000 J/kg of CAPE. The shear profiles aren't exactly ominous, with little low level curvature, and most low-level shear oriented crosswise in the warm sector...but effective shear may be marginally supportive of supercell structures with extremely low LCLs and a good bit of 0-3 km CAPE. This points to some potential for severe storms and a very low but non zero potential for a tornado **IF** surface based convective initiation takes place this far west. Most CAM guidance holds off on deep convection in the warm sector until later in the day and farther east, but these systems have a tendency to initiate on the early side of guidance so will want to be aware of at least some severe potential Thursday morning.

After a brief dry period, another strong short wave will cross the central Plains on Friday. Moisture will surge north with a surface low and dryline pushing east across the forecast area during the day. Wind fields will be quite a bit stronger in the northern portions of the warm sector with this system. The primary uncertainties lie in how far north the warm sector will lift, and the timing of the system crossing the area. If the low and fronts move through during the afternoon hours, and if the warm sector lifts as far north as currently indicated (a lot of guidance in the I-80 region), then we'll need to be alert to the potential for a broken line of supercells developing on Friday afternoon. As is often the case, the devil is in the details, but for now it is a day to watch closely, and all severe weather will be possible in any well-developed, mature supercells.

After Friday, the weather pattern tames down a bit. Mainly dry conditions and seasonal temperatures (highs in the 50s or lower 60s, lows in the 30s to low 40s) are expected for the weekend into the middle of next week. More widespread precip chances return late next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Current MVFR ceilings will persist and lower over the next 9 hours, with ceilings dropping toward 400 feet and possibly lower after 08Z or so. Expect intermittent rain, with shra in-between those times of more persistent precipitation and have tried to highlight those times in the TAF. Visibility will also drop with periods of 1-2 mile vis. Conditions may briefly improve in and around rain shower activity, but predominantly IFR is expected for several hours in the TAF period. Winds also turn out of the north and increase late in the TAF.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.