textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of central into eastern Nebraska due to a combination of gusty winds (30-40 mph), and dry conditions (15-25% RH).

- A wind shift will pass through this evening, complicating fire response and bringing low-end rain chances (10-25%) and sporadic gusts to 40+ mph.

- Warm temperatures Tuesday are on track to break or tie record highs across the area.

- Precipitation chances return to the Thursday, with snow and cold returning to the region into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows two southwesterly belts of ascent and moisture pouring in from the Pacific, each lobbed northeastward by their own mid/upper vorticity maximum off the Pacific Coast. A recent hand analysis places us just to the south of a stalled out frontal boundary that stretches from northern Illinois to south-central South Dakota before arcing up into northwest Montana. A fair bit of cloud cover will stall cooling where it's thicker, but even short peeks at the night sky will send temps tumbling, especially closer to the stalled front and quieter winds. Lows are expected to fall into the 40s to upper 30s, with winds lightening up as we go through the night.

Another warm day is forecast tomorrow, with record-breaking or record-tying highs pushing into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Though it's fun to have a nice warm day in February, extreme fire danger will be the primary concern as that heat is joined by dry conditions and gusty winds. Taking a look at model soundings, strong warm air advection during the early morning hours is actually going to delay some of the better mixing that we will be able to do for most of the forecast area, locking away the 45-55 kt jet aloft until the very end of the day for much of the forecast area. Despite that, we will have access to gusts in the 30-40 mph range with the strongest winds forecast over far southeast Nebraska where 850 mb winds below the residual inversion are greatest. With limited access to meaningful moisture return from the south, humidity values will fall quickly as we mix into very dry air (evident in the most recent 00z KOAX sounding) during the late morning and afternoon hours. By 4 PM, RH values will have bottomed out in the 15-25% range, making for extreme fire danger where those conditions intersect gusty winds. Far southeast Nebraska will see slightly higher RH values (30-40%), but the stronger winds there will push them over the edge into extreme fire danger based on previous events with the same conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for extreme fire danger for much of eastern into central Nebraska, while areas to the north and east still expected to hit very high fire danger during the afternoon hours.

During the evening hours, a frontal passage attached to the system driving the warmth will pass through the area, resulting in a few sprinkles/light rain showers that could evaporate into the very dry low levels and accelerate into strong winds. As sprinkle chances (10- 25%) move through, sporadic gusts of 40 mph or more could occur. The front will also bring a wind shift that could complicate any fire response that goes into the evening hours as well.

Wednesday and Thursday:

For Wednesday, the fire weather system will have pivoted to the north and east, taking any remaining gusty winds with it as we progress through the day. Temps will trend down compared to Tuesday, only peaking in the 60s despite the westerly winds. We do have a small window of potential overlap between residual westerly wind gusts and warmth in northeast Nebraska, but very high fire danger is going to be the better bet for the entire area due to lower confidence how far north warmth surges.

From there, our eyes turn southwestward for the development of a new weather system taking shape and pushing eastward across Nebraska and Kansas Thursday. As it pushes eastward, models are in good agreement that it will rapidly deepen and negatively tilt over the area and pivot to the northeast. This will drag a cold airmass that will not only serve as a shock to the system for those enjoying our recent warmth, but also allowing precipitation to fall as snow. This rapid intensification will lead to a potentially narrow (3 counties or less in height) band of moderate to heavy accumulations that would make travel extremely difficult. At the moment, we will have to monitor model trends to track this moderate-to-heavy snow band currently slated for Thursday, as even minor changes to the location will mean boom-or-bust for snow lovers. Confidence is currently low for any one location, with the best chances (30-40% based on the latest info) for 4" or more being north of a line from Neligh to Sioux City.

Friday and Beyond:

After the push of cold air settles in Friday morning (10-20 degrees) highs are expected to bounce back well into the 30s for areas that do not receive enough snow to coat the ground. From there, mostly dry conditions are forecast as the main jet axis remains just to the south of the area with northwesterly flow aloft. Some bite will be taken off from the cooler northern air by the longer sunlight, staying near to just-above normal through the wherever Thursday's snow misses.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 503 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Primary concern is the dry front that will move across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa today. This will lead to increasing winds out of the south and south-southwest this morning with a shift to westerly this evening. Guidance is fairly confident in at least a few hour period of low-level wind shear at all the terminals, with KOMA being a little more complicated due to LLWS ahead of the front, weakening as the front moves through, then returning behind the front. Expect LLWS after 04-05Z to hold for at least a few hours as strong winds persist aloft while surface winds weaken. KLNK could see LLWS all the way until 12Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for NEZ016-017-030>032-042-043-050-065-066-078-088>093. IA...None.