textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional shower and thunderstorm chances Monday through Wednesday. The highest chance (30-60%) is across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening across portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- There is a chance of frost Wednesday and Thursday mornings, especially across northeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The overall weather pattern remains relatively quiet through the remainder of this weekend into next week. Persistent longwave troughing over the eastern half of the United States keeps the northern Great Plains under predominately northwesterly upper- level winds. With this regime, limited rainfall can be expected with temperatures swinging between above and below normal between frontal passages. Let's break this down into more detail.

A weak cold front pushes through the region tonight, though this does little to our sensible weather. Sunday sees temperatures actually increase into the 70s despite a north wind. Heading into Monday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dive out of Canada into the region. Ahead of this, temperatures climb into the lower 80s as moisture begins to increase. This shortwave trough will act to push another cold front through the region. Sufficient moisture and instability is anticipated along and ahead of the front for shower and thunderstorm development. There is a low (10-30%) chance of rain for most of the region with the highest (30-60%) chance focused over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may be possible and a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been highlighted in the convective outlook as a result. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concern should any severe thunderstorms develop.

Cooler temperatures filter in behind the front heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. Below normal temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are likely as a result. Low (10-30%) rain chances may linger as a separate trough over the Four Corners lifts towards the region through Wednesday. The cooler temperatures translate to cold mornings with at least a chance of frost Wednesday and Thursday mornings, especially across northeast Nebraska. Subtle ridging under the continued northwesterly upper-level winds is anticipated to close the week. This will allow for another warming trend through the 60s and into the 70s with more quiet and dry weather Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

LLWS is coming to an end this morning as winds at FL015 have begun to slow and come into line with surface winds. A boundary pushing through the area will turn west-southwesterly winds northwesterly. This has already happened at KOFK. Winds will become north-norhtwesterly at 5-10 knots by 15Z at KOMA/KLNK. The winds will become light and southerly after sunset.

Sunny skies will become mostly cloudy by mid-day with clouds hanging mostly between FL150 and FL250.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.