textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Powerful winds (55-65 mph) with snow expected on Sunday bringing periodic whiteout conditions especially to locations in northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa.

- Frigid temperatures Sunday night into early Monday, with Monday morning wind chills 10 below to 25 degrees below zero.

- Warming temperatures into mid-week, with highs reaching the 70s and potentially low 80s later in the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Skies are mostly clear across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this afternoon with winds generally out of the southeast. We're monitoring the development of a powerful low pressure system that will be moving out of the Rockies over Montana and Wyoming. We see a well-defined baroclinic leaf over that region this afternoon, with deepening of the upper-level trough and development of the strong surface low this evening as it approaches the Northern Plains.

The surface low is forecast to track southeastward across northern Nebraska into Iowa through the day on Sunday bringing strong winds and snow to the region. Recent trends have shifted the track of this system slightly farther north, bringing in drier air and lowering chances for rain overnight tonight into early Sunday morning. While we could still see a few isolated to scattered rain showers overnight, higher PoPs don't move in until after the cold air arrives and should fall as snow.

The north-northwesterly winds will arrive a rapid increase in intensity on Sunday morning. Winds will rapidly increase to around 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph and only continue to increase from there. We're expecting wind gusts to be strongest between 10am - 8pm with frequent gusts 55 to 65 mph. Model soundings show winds at the top of the mixed layer approaching 70 to 75 mph, which could occasionally mix to the surface due to steep lapse rates below the inversion aloft. While we don't anticipate many gusts to 70 mph, there could be a few. Powerful winds at these intensities could lead to tree damage as well as cause isolated to scattered power outages so people should be prepared.

Snow will arrive just behind the winds, moving into northeast Nebraska around 5-7am and spreading southeast through the morning hours. With the northward trend of the track of this system, we now see lower snow totals than forecast yesterday, with the highest snow intensity expected across our far northeastern counties. Snow totals will generally be around 3 inches or less. While these amounts are not impressive, snow combined with the strong wind will lead to significant reduction in visibility, dropping below 1/4 mile at times. We expect more frequent whiteout conditions in our far northeastern counties where snow totals should be closer to 2-3 inches, so we issued a Winter Storm Warning for these areas. Areas just to the south expecting closer to 1-2 inches have been put in a Winter Weather Advisory, due to visibility occasionally dropping to 1/4 mile or less with lighter, less frequent snow showers. Areas not in a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Warning to the southwest, could still see visibility briefly drop to 1/4 mile or less under a heavier snow shower or two, but will be much less likely (30% chance).

Snow should be exiting to the east around 7-8pm with clearing skies, however winds will continue to gust 45 to 55 mph until closer to 1am when winds finally weaken. While gusts drop to closer to 30 to 35 mph toward daybreak on Monday, these winds combined with temperatures falling into the single digits will make for very cold wind chill Monday morning. Portions of northeast Nebraska may see wind chill fall to -20 to -25, while the rest of our area sees wind chill around -10 to -20.

Cold air doesn't last for long, though. As this time of year likes to do, we see temperatures trend back up quickly going into next week. A strongly amplified ridge builds up over the western CONUS bringing back warmer temperatures starting Tuesday with highs getting back up into the 40s across our eastern counties to mid 50s toward the west. Far northeast Nebraska and western Iowa may see some light flurries changing over to light rain during the day on Tuesday as the warm front moves through. Wednesday we warm into the mid 60s east to mid 70s west. Ensemble guidance gets us into the upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday which is approaching record highs. Warm, dry weather looks to stick around going into next weekend as the ridge remains locked in place.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions are observed at the start of the TAF cycle at all terminals. Will see a period of low level wind shear overspread terminals by 02-03z as winds change direction to the northwest. Expect some lingering gustiness of 17-21kts at terminals this evening. Model guidance suggests some light rain showers affecting KOFK and KOMA from 03z to 08z, but chances remain at only 30% or less for occurrence, so largely expecting dry conditions to prevail during that timeframe.

Sustained winds and wind gusts ramp up quick after 08z, with gusts of 20-25 kts increasing to 45-50kts after 12z and persisting for the duration of the TAF cycle. Snow will move into terminals after 13z from north to south, with the highest chances for occurrence (50-70%) expected at KOFK and KOMA, with lower chances (~40%) at KLNK. Any snow combined with the powerful winds will result in visibility reductions of IFR to brief LIFR drops. Snow largely ends at terminals by 23z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ011- 012-015>018. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ030>034-042>045-052-053. IA...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for IAZ043- 056. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for IAZ055-069-079-080-091.