textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain warmer than normal through at least Friday. Many locations see temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal each day.

- There is decreasing likelihood of record temperatures on Christmas Day, due to morning fog and clouds. That said, it remains a mild Christmas.

- Dry weather continues through the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning clearing illustrates the large upper-level ridge that has taken hold over much of the southern CONUS. This has already sent temperatures soaring with widespread upper 50s to low 60s on Monday. We reached a high temperature of 58 at NWS Omaha, breaking the previous record of 57 from 2020. The same near-record to record breaking heat does not continue into Tuesday. A weak cold front is swinging through the area with a passing disturbance to our north. This cold front is mainly a wind shift with only slightly cooler temperatures behind it. Temperatures remain above normal this afternoon in the upper 40s to lower 50s for many. As surface high pressure moves east of the area late Tuesday, moist return flow will likely set up fog across much of the area heading into Wednesday morning, Christmas Eve. This fog may stunt heating slightly, but widespread 50s are likely even with morning fog. Unfortunately, the recored heat for Thursday, Christmas Day, appears increasingly unlikely with the latest forecast. As the forecast has drawn near, increasing confidence in widespread morning fog and abundant afternoon clouds. This is anticipated to slow daytime heating. While record heat is no longer anticipated, well above normal temperatures continue, with widespread 50s across the area. Either way, it will be a mild Christmas.

By Friday, the upper-level ridge begins to weaken in response to a deepening trough over the western CONUS. That being said, one last day of well above normal temperatures is currently anticipated. Widespread highs in the 50s to lower 60s Friday afternoon to close out the holiday week. Heading into the weekend, a second trough digs into the Great Lakes region, putting our area under northwesterly flow aloft. This will set the stage for a series of frontal systems to pass through the region. The first front remains more modest and above normal temperatures may continue on Saturday, but a more substantial cold front enters the picture by Sunday, effectively ending this streak. Temperatures will likely return to near or perhaps even slightly below normal by Sunday and these near normal temperatures appear likely to start the last few days of 2025.

There is no precipitation expected through the forecast period. Any substantial disturbance passes well to the north this week and low- level moisture is quickly eroded behind the cold fronts this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Late morning satellite and observational data show widespread low clouds and fog across portions of eastern KS and western MO, where a warm and moist air mass currently resides. That air is forecast to advance north into eastern NE and western IA tonight into Wednesday morning with low clouds and areas of fog developing. The 12z HREF indicates a greater than 80% chance of IFR ceilings developing at KLNK and KOMA in the 24/12z-24/13z time frame, and as such, IFR conditions have been introduced to the forecast at those locations. Some drizzle appears possible, though temperatures should be warm enough such that no ice accumulation is expected. Current indications are that the fog and/or low clouds will remain to the south/east of KOFK, so prevailing VFR conditions will be maintained there.

Light northeast winds this afternoon will become southeast tonight into Wednesday morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.