textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 30-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms for portions of Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa. Severe weather is possible with damaging winds the main threat.

- Heat Indices increase into the low to mid 100s Tuesday afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the area.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue throughout much of the week into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible at times, including on Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A weak front has settled into Northeast Nebraska early this afternoon. This front will gradually weaken with time. Temperatures warm into the 80s this afternoon with partly cloudy skies for most. Back to the west, a complex of thunderstorms is beginning to develop across central Nebraska. This complex is forecast to gradually turn into a mature bowing MCS with time. This activity tracks southeast, mainly into Kansas, but the northern portion may clip areas near the Kansas border. Damaging winds would be the main threat with this MCS. Elsewhere, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible along the residual front or north of the complex. A strong to severe thunderstorm remains possible with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns. It remains muggy tonight with temperatures in the 70s.

The system that spawned the complex of thunderstorms today will leave subsidence in its wake. This is anticipated to keep the area dry and mostly sunny throughout the afternoon on Tuesday. At the same time, mid-level ridging builds across much of the plains. Temperatures increase well into the 90s to near 100 with muggy dewpoints into the 70s. As a result, most the area sees heat indices in the low to mid 100s prompting a Heat Advisory. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast, but confidence in much of this reaching the area remains uncertain. While a healthy amount of instability will be in place, subtle height rises and better forcing remains to the west. The latest forecast guidance dissipates most thunderstorms as they reach our forecast area. That said, if thunderstorms do reach the area, severe weather will be a concern. Damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats.

As a trough approaches the region on Wednesday, a cold front will sink into the region. Temperatures remain hot, but do decrease compared to Tuesday. Unlike Tuesday, more forcing will be in place and strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated by afternoon across the area. This may end up being the day with the greatest threat for severe weather this week. Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest details.

Temperatures cool back into the 80s to close out the week and begin the weekend. Initially, we will have a lower chance of showers and thunderstorms behind Wednesday's system, but another trough looks to take shape by the weekend. Increasing thunderstorm chances and some severe weather potential may materialize. Keep tabs on the forecast for your weekend plans.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period, though low- probability thunderstorms (20-30%) could lead to some brief periods of MVFR to IFR, most likely at LNK, but possibly OMA. Most guidance suggests storms this evening will remain to the south of the TAF sites. However, a few pieces of guidance hint at a second line of storms pushing east toward LNK around 09Z and maybe OMA by 11Z, though most guidance suggests the line will die prior to arriving. If it happens to hold together, could see some small hail and winds gusting 30-50 kts. Otherwise, lingering 4000-5000 ft clouds this evening should dissipate overnight with FEW to SCT clouds at 2500 ft developing by late morning. Winds will mostly be southeasterly to southerly, with gusts of 20-30 kts expected by mid-day Tuesday.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ011-012-015- 017-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091.