textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Very High Fire Danger is forecast in parts of northeast Nebraska today, and will span the entire forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain well above normal through early next week, rising into the 70s by Tuesday.

- A more active pattern returns late Tuesday through the end of the week, with cooling temperatures and multiple chances for light rain and snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Today through Tuesday...

Dense fog developed across far southeast Nebraska and western Iowa, this morning, primarily where moisture pooled after Saturday's light rainfall. Temperatures dropped into the 20s under clear skies over northeast Nebraska. The blanket of patchy dense fog kept lows in the 30s across the southern half of the forecast area.

A subtle ridge of high pressure will develop over the central CONUS today, bringing another day of well above normal temperatures. Highs this afternoon will push well into the mid 60s today, with a few locations possibly reaching 70.

Prevailing dry conditions over northeast Nebraska will allow relative humidities to dip to 20-30% in a few locations. Winds will increase through the day, with a few gusts up to 20 to 25 mph possible late this afternoon and evening. Combined with the warm temperatures, this will likely lead to a region of Very High Fire Danger in far northeast Nebraska and parts of western Iowa.

Similarly, warm temperatures are expected Monday, with the potential to gain a few extra degrees. Winds are forecast to weaken through the day. Additionally, moisture will increase over the region, relegating fire danger concerns to the High category over northeast Nebraska.

Strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave will bring a surge of even warmer air Tuesday, with the majority of the forecast area expected to reach into the mid and possibly upper 70s. Breezier south winds and relative humidities falling to 20 to 40 percent across the majority of the forecast area will bring an even greater risk for Very High Danger Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

The previously mentioned shortwave and resulting surface low will pass through the Dakotas Tuesday, potentially resulting in another round of showers Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning as a cold front moves through (20-40%). Temperatures will dip a few degrees behind the front Wednesday. Highs are currently expected to reach into the 60s over the southern half of the forecast area. High temperatures may be reached earlier in the day, behind the front in northeast Nebraska. There, expect cooler highs in the 50s, especially where showers and cloud cover linger.

Drier air will move in behind the departing system Wednesday afternoon. Locations that miss the patchy rainfall will likely see an additional day of Very High Fire danger, where winds gust up to 20-30 mph and minimum RH bottoms out around 15-25%.

Thursday and Beyond...

Cooler, moist air surges back into the region until Thursday and Friday, as the main trough and surface cold front passes through the Central Plains. High temperatures are expected to dip into the 30s and 40s late this week. This system will create another surface low with the potential to bring precipitation across the region. Cold air wrapping around the backside of this low is expected to transition rain over to snow Thursday into Friday. The best chance for any accumulating snow currently looks to be over far northeast Nebraska Thursday into Friday.

Cooler temperatures and periodic precipitation chances will continue into the upcoming weekend as another low pressure system traverses the central CONUS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to linger through the forecast period. Expect some wind shear concerns over the southerly half of the area with strong winds of about 40 knots at 2,000 ft AGL at KOMA and KLNK. Those winds will be out of the southwest.

Also monitoring the threat of patchy fog development once again. Best chances of that fog will be in western Iowa and northeastern Nebraska, but confidence (20%) isn't high enough to include at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday's standing records vs the forecast

Norfolk 72 | 1981 .. 74 | 2026 Lincoln 74 | 2017 .. 77 | 2026 .Offutt 65 | 1970 .. 75 | 2026 .Eppley 75 | 2017... 75 | 2026 Tekamah 66 | 2017 .. 74 | 2026 Falls City 76 | 2017 .. 74 | 2026 Valley NWS 69 | 2017... 76 | 2026

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.