textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow, heavy at times, overspreading area today into this evening. Plan for difficult travel due to near-zero visibility and snow-covered roads, especially from late this afternoon into tonight. - Highest accumulations of up to 4-7" are forecast along a line from Albion and Columbus through Fremont, the northern Omaha metro and Blair to Harlan, Iowa. Amounts are expected to decrease with northward and southward extent away from that line.

- Additional light snow is possible (20-40% PoPs) Friday night in southeast Nebraska with only minor accumulations expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1050 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Rest of today and tonight:

Mid-morning water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving through central NE with an associated belt of forcing for ascent beginning to overspread our area. Much of the initial lift will go into top-down saturation of an initially dry low- level air mass. We are starting to see some light snow in the northwest part of our area (Albion and Neligh vicinities) with the snow steadily spreading east across the area through the remainder of today. The 12z high-resolution models still vary to some extent with the axis of heaviest snowfall, but the general consensus is a slight northward shift from previous model runs. Steep mid-level lapse rates evident on the 12z TOP sounding will support some upright convective development, especially from near/just north of the Omaha metro into southwest IA this afternoon, where some sleet and a few lightning strikes are possible. Highest snow rates approaching 1"/hr are most probable from 4-8 PM in those same locations.

This forecast update will indicate a slight northward shift in the heavy-snow axis (4-7" accumulations), generally from Albion and Columbus through Fremont, the northern Omaha metro/Blair to Harlan, IA. Accordingly, Shelby County has been added to the Winter Storm Warning. As we have been messaging, travel will be difficult in those areas later this afternoon into tonight due to near-zero visibilities and snow-covered roads.

The snow is expected to taper off from west-to-east across the area tonight.

In regard to temperatures, we have lowered readings today owing to the persistent low-level cold advection occurring to the north of a surface low currently located just west of Kansas City.

Friday through Monday:

It will remain cool this period with highs mainly in the 30s. This is especially the case in areas that receive higher snowfall accumulation. The models continue to indicate the potential for some light snow Friday night (20-40% PoPs) in southeast NE with only a minor accumulation possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

The 12z global models indicate the development of zonal flow aloft, which will support a warmer, low-level pattern with highs in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 531 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions are solidly in place at all three terminals to start the period, with heavy snow falling over the next 6 hours. In addition to the snow, there is a 20% chance for some lightning activity near KOMA, but confidence in that occurring is not high enough at this time. Expect more sporadic restrictions at KOFK, while KLNK and KOMA stay more consistent with low-end visibilities and ceilings, driven by the snowfall and winds gusting to 25-30 kts. As snow starts to taper around 03z, ceilings will be the first to improve, followed by visibilities that pushing into MVFR, then VFR territory by 06-09z overnight. From there, VFR conditions will hold with winds out of the northwest at less than 10 kts through the remainder of the forecast.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ015-033- 034-065-066-068. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ043>045- 050>053-067. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ016>018-031-032. Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ030-042. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ043-080- 090. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ055-056-069- 079.