textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures continue through Monday with widespread highs in the 80s and even low 90s.

- Our next weather system arrives by mid-week, bringing cooler temperatures and marking the return of rain chances to the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Several tropical-related features of note this evening, with Isaias continuing to spin over TN/MS/AL, Tropical Storm Rachel just west of the Baja California peninsula, and Hurricane Simon off the southwest coast of Mexico. In addition, a larger scale trough and cutoff low were pushing into the Pacific Northwest. At the surface and closer to home, a cold front was extending southwest from ND into SD and WY while a surface trough was in place east of the Rockies. This left us under southwesterly flow aloft with a fairly tight pressure gradient and lingering gusty winds.

Heading into Sunday, a surface low is progged to develop over northeast CO, while the aforementioned cold front slowly sinks southeastward, potentially entering the forecast area by late Sunday evening. While we'll see a little more cloud cover (high levels) on Sunday with some weak shortwave energy ejecting toward us out of the Desert Southwest, temperatures will remain quite warm and near records, owing to good mixing with the continued strong southerly flow ahead of the low. NAEFS guidance continues to suggest 850 mb temperatures in the 90-99th+ percentile of climatology and while model soundings show we don't quite mix that deep, mixing down temperatures at around 900 mb would get us into the upper 80s to lower 90s once again. In addition, guidance remains consistently too high with dewpoints/RH, so dropped dewpoints, bringing RH values into upper 20s for much of the area. Combined with continued wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range, some fire weather concerns will be present, though it will be less windy than Saturday.

Monday will see similar to possibly even slightly warmer temperatures across most of the area as the cold front takes its sweet time pushing southeast. Outside of northeast NE, expect mid 80s to even a few mid 90s. Quite a bit of guidance is also now suggesting some light precip along the boundary late Monday evening into early Tuesday with strengthening moisture transport along/into the boundary. Model soundings show quite a bit of dry air to overcome, so it seems anything that does develop would be light, but did introduce some 20% chances to the forecast.

Behind the front, cooler air will steadily work in throughout the week. Expect highs in the 60s and 70s, with a several degree drop at a given location each successive day. By Friday/Saturday, we should even start to see some 50s creeping in. Otherwise, the main story for the week will be additional rain chances. The first will come Tuesday night into Wednesday as some remnants of Simon eject north/northeast and interact with the surface boundary to our south. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that some of the associated precip edges into southeast NE/southwest IA (60-70% chance). Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest cutoff low will dig into the Desert Southwest by Tuesday and eject toward the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing more widespread precip chances (50-70% chance). Rain totals for us look to remain mostly below 1 inch, with much higher totals expected to remain to our south across KS and MO.

Beyond that, there's quite a bit of spread Friday into the weekend. The general idea is that another trough digs into the Midwest out of Canada, but guidance is very much split on how amplified it is. GEFS/GEPS are much deeper with the trough, bringing much colder air to the forecast area Friday into Saturday, with many members showing sub-freezing temperatures Saturday morning and highs in 40s. Meanwhile, the EPS mean is much less amplified and kicks the trough quickly into the northeast CONUS, bringing a ridge axis to the forecast area and keeping us in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly winds will remain breezy overnight, at speeds of 12-20 kts, with gusts up to 20- 30 kts. LLWS will increase out of the southwest at FL020, up to 40- 50 kts, before diminishing between 12-15Z Sunday morning. A weak cold front will creep into northeast Nebraska Sunday evening, bringing winds around to the west and eventually northwest at KOFK. LLWS is expected to return at KOMA and KLNK after 00Z Monday, ahead of the front.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.