textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week, particularly tonight and Friday.

- Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between systems.

- Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Today and Tonight...

A warm front bisected the region today, from Friend, NE, to Lincoln, Omaha, and over into Harlan, IA. North of the front, a pesky cloud deck of low clouds developed, helping maintain temperatures in the low to mid 70s. South of the front, gusty southwest winds brought warmer temperatures into the low to mid 80s. The winds also brought plenty of dry air, with minimum relative humidities falling to 20-30 percent across far southeast Nebraska. The combination of warm temps, dry air, and gusty winds led to Very High to Extreme fire danger across parts of southeast Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning, will remain in effect for Jefferson and Saline counties, where conditions are worst, until 9 PM tonight.

The good news is, moisture is expected to surge back north into the forecast area tonight. The bad news is, this could increase our risk for a few strong to severe storms developing across far southeast Nebraska. However, the other good news is latest CAM runs have pushed the best chance for storm development just southeast of the forecast area, into northern parts of Kansas and Missouri. If storms do manage to develop over southeast Nebraska tonight, they will have a lot of dry air to contend with throughout the column, which could hinder their growth. If storms do manage to win out against the entrainment of dry air, steep lapse rates, and strong unidirectional shear could allow storms to become severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. The severe potential may linger into the early morning hours. Wednesday and Thursday...

The low associated with the previously mentioned warm front will move northeast into north-central Kansas/southeast Nebraska Wednesday morning, brining additional chances for showers and storms through the region. The low is expected to lift slightly to the north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the low moves out late Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Thursday is still expected to remain dry as a ridge moves across the region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday, warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs Thursday afternoon.

Friday and Beyond...

Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected, with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to monitor the forecast for potential changes.

Cooler air will push in behind the front for the upcoming weekend. Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s over north of a line from Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA. Lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s across the rest of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from the mid-20s to the mid-30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A warm front draped across the region will make for a tricky wind forecast this afternoon. KOMA and KLNK currently reside right along the front, with light and variable winds. Expect the front to push farther north this afternoon, bringing southwesterly winds with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Scattered showers and storms will be possible this evening and overnight. While the best chance for strong to severe storms will likely remain south and east of the TAF sites, a few weaker storms could develop farther north. The best chance for thunder at KOMA, KLNK, and KOFK will likely be after 06Z tonight and into Wednesday morning, however confidence in storm location is too low to include a mention at this time.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ078-088. IA...None.