textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow chances increase Sunday into Sunday night (30-60% PoPs), mainly south of I-80. Accumulations of up to one or two inches are possible, along with a light glaze of ice. Some area roads could become slick Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Precipitation chances continue early next week with a gradual warming trend. The best chances (50-80% PoPs) are Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Tonight and Saturday:

Surface high pressure is building south through the mid-MO Valley this evening with a cooler, low-level air mass overspreading the area. A shortwave trough traversing the northern Plains overnight will contribute to an increase in clouds across across northeast NE into west-central IA. However, any snowfall associated with that disturbance will remain to our north across SD and MN.

Clouds are expected to decrease Saturday morning with mostly sunny skies contributing to high temperatures ranging from the 40s in our northern counties to around 60 along the KS border.

Sunday into Sunday night:

The primary focus this period is snowfall potential associated with a weak, mid-level disturbance traversing the central Plains. The latest parameterized and convection-allowing models have trended south with their QPF compared to earlier runs. In fact, many of the 00z CAMs indicate little to no precipitation in our area through 6 PM Sunday. While we won't take that drastic of an approach to the going forecast, we have lowered PoPs in northeast NE and west-central IA to account for the southward shift.

The various deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate the potential for some 1-2" accumulations in far southeast NE with a very sharp cutoff with northward extent. Again, the latest CAM data suggest even lower amounts. This forecast update will indicate a broader area of trace up to 1-1.5" amounts to account for any additional model fluctuations. Forecast soundings still indicate the potential for some light freezing drizzle in southeast NE Sunday night as saturation is lost in the ice-bearing layer. Any light ice accumulation and/or snow accumulation will lead to slippery roads Sunday night into Monday morning.

Next Week:

Latest ensemble data are in reasonably good agreement in depicting a mid-level trough along the West Coast Monday morning. That feature is projected to advance east; however, the models vary on the track and speed of that system, as well as to what extent it interacts with any polar-branch disturbances passing to it's immediate north. That leads to model variations in the evolution of the surface pattern over the central U.S., as well as the location and coverage of any precipitation.

All that being said, there is some model agreement that a weak disturbance will precede the West Coast system, moving into the northern Plains Monday into Monday night. This forecast update will increase PoPs to 50-80% Monday night as that perturbation glances the area. Thereafter, some model solutions develop a robust surface cyclone over the central or southern Plains in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe with our area residing on the northern fringe of a large QPF footprint. There is a growing model signal for a more prominent trough to develop across the Interior West Thursday with a lee cyclone deepening in the lee of the Rockies. We'll have to wait and see.

The forecast will indicate 20-50% PoPs in the Tuesday-Wednesday period. But, as mentioned above, there is still considerable uncertainty in how the pattern will evolve. A warming trend is forecast with highs in the 30s and 40s Monday warming into the 40s and 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, and potentially 60s by Thursday. So, any precipitation falling during the day would likely be rain with a rain-snow mix or light snow at night. There is currently no model signal for any significant accumulation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light east winds are expected tonight. A low pressure system passes to the northeast during Saturday morning. Winds will become more southeasterly ahead of this low pressure system before becoming northerly behind this system by the afternoon. No precipitation or decreased ceilings are expected with this passing system

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.