textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this week, particularly Tuesday and Friday.

- Thursday will be a drying day as a ridge moves in between systems.

- Possible temperature impacts are expected for those with agricultural interests heading into the weekend. Expected lows Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s and 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The forecast period begins with southwest flow over the region and an upper level trough over northwestern Arizona. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies overnight, lifting into extreme southwestern Nebraska and central Nebraska by daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday morning, a warm front develops as far north as Omaha/Council Bluffs. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 80s behind the front and the 70s to the north of it. Heading further into the day, the front will sag southward a little bit, nudging a little closer to the NE/KS border.

Late afternoon into the evening, instability will increase across southeastern Nebraska/southwestern Iowa. SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg and MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg are expected. Storms are expected to develop along the warm front during the evening, a few of which may become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. The severe potential could go into the early morning hours.

The active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week with another shortwave trough lifting out of the Four Corners region Tuesday and reaching southern Nebraska/northern Kansas by Wednesday morning. The low will remain over eastern Nebraska Wednesday morning, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible through the day. The low is expected to lift slightly to the north on Wednesday, bringing some wrap around moisture to northern Nebraska. PoPs will decrease southwest to northeast heading into the evening hours as the low exits. A few isolated strong storms may develop in the southeastern part of the CWA Wednesday evening.

Thursday is still expected to be a dry out day as a ridge moves across the region. After the brief cool down (highs in the 70s) on Wednesday, warm air advects into the region. Expect widespread 80s for highs Thursday afternoon.

Friday will be a day to watch as we get closer to the end of the week. Low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies with an attendant cold front moving into the region. An upper level trough over the Four Corners region will lift to the northeast into the area by Friday night. The cold front will be ushering in much cooler air with WAA and moisture advection ahead of it. There is still uncertainty in where the cold front reaches and the timing of everything. Strong to severe storms with this set up are expected, with all hazards possible. There is still considerable uncertainty in some of the forecast details for this period, so continue to monitor the forecast for potential changes.

Cooler air pushing in behind the front will result in a cooler weekend. Saturday morning lows will be in the 30s, with low 30s expected from David City to Thurston and areas north. Those with agricultural interests will want to keep an eye on temperatures. Highs will struggle into the 50s for much of the area. A few locations will not make it into the 50s. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be cold once again with lows ranging from the mid-20s to the mid-30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Some patchy fog has developed near and east of the Missouri River, but thinking it should stay out of OMA. Guidance continues to hint at some 2000-3000 ft clouds developing near OMA and LNK, but maybe moreso FEW/SCT instead BKN now, so VFR conditions are now favored through the day. Winds at OFK will remain persistently out of the northeast, with perhaps a few gusts of 18 kts. However, they'll be much more variable at OMA and LNK, starting northeast and turning clockwise basically throughout the period. Expect southeasterly then southwestelry winds this afternoon, followed by northerly to northeasterly this evening and overnight. LNK could see some gusts of 20-25 kts at times. Finally, still expect storms to move through the area tonight, likely after 03Z, but guidance continues to suggest they'll be somewhat hit or miss, with areas northwest and southeast of the TAF sites more likely to see anything.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ078-088. IA...None.