textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact portions of southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa overnight. Large hail, gusty winds and torrential rainfall are expected. Training thunderstorms may result in flash flooding.

- Additional thunderstorm chances are expected Wednesday and again on Friday. Continue to monitor the forecast for severe weather potential.

- Much colder air arrives Friday night/Saturday morning. Lows both Saturday and Sunday mornings will fall into the 20s to low/mid-30s. Additionally, snow chances return to portions of the forecast area Friday night/Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The forecast period begins with ongoing showers in northern Nebraska and a few strong to severe thunderstorms along the Kansas/Nebraska border. These thunderstorms have been kicking off along a boundary extending from northwest of Concordia, Kansas to northwest of Fremont, Nebraska to north of Council Bluffs, Iowa. DCAPE values are currently in the 800-1100 J/kg range. SBCAPE values range between 1000 to nearly 3000 J/kg. ML lapse rates range from 7-8C/km with LL lapse rates around 6.5-7.5C/km. The main concerns with this line of storms will be large hail and gusty winds.

Also of note with tonight's convection is the potential for some flooding. Precipitable water values are around 1.0+ inches along and south of the boundary. Training thunderstorms along and south of the boundary could result in some locations getting quite a bit of rainfall. We will continue to monitor the potential through the night.

Heading into Wednesday morning, the low will continue to lift east- northeast. Additional shower/thunderstorm activity is expected as moisture wraps around the low. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible with hail and wind being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out.

Thursday continues to look like our best drying out day as a ridge moves over the region. WAA sets up with highs returning to the upper 70s to mid-80s.

Friday continues to be a day to watch closely as we move closer to the event. Low pressure will develop on the lee side of the Rockies Thursday night. An attendant cold front will slide into the region through the day with much colder air pushing in behind it. The cold front appears to be moving into the region slightly faster than yesterday's runs. Areas ahead of the front can expect highs ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s, while areas behind it may struggle into the mid-50s. Warm Gulf air will be streaming into the region through the day. An upper trough will also be arriving heading into the latter part of the day, bringing additional lift to the region. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front Friday afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. In addition to the potential for severe storms ahead of the cold front, areas in northern Nebraska behind the front may receive a rain/snow mix, becoming all snow. The snow chances will push south of I-80 heading into daybreak, with rain/snow possible for areas from Friend to Hallam to just east of Council Bluffs. Precipitation chances should decrease heading into the afternoon with just a few showers remaining.

Anyone with agricultural interests or outdoor activities will want to monitor the weekend forecast as colder temperatures and potential wintry weather returns to the forecast. Saturday morning temperatures have trended slightly colder, with northern Nebraska expecting temps in the upper 20s. Areas closer to the Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri border will fall into the low to mid- 30s. Sunday morning lows will be even colder with more widespread 20s for lows and most areas falling below the freezing mark.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Showers are incoming from the southwest, expected to be on the doorstep of the terminal around or slightly after the onset of the forecast period. At this point, severe weather is not expected for northern Nebraska. Strong/severe storms continue toward the Kansas/Nebraska border. Expect winds to become northerly overnight, and northwesterly heading into tomorrow evening. There will be a chance for a few showers and storms Wednesday but confidence on initiation remains a little uncertain.

KOMA: Showers and thunderstorms have remained south of the terminal thus far tonight and should stay that way for a few more hours. There is a possibility of some storm development on Wednesday, but exact location is still a bit up in the air. Have held off from putting a mention in prevailing conditions for the time being. Winds gradually turn north by daybreak and northeast through the morning as low pressure lifts north slightly.

KLNK: Thunderstorms continue to remain along and south of the boundary located south of the terminal. The storms should mostly stay toward the Kansas/Nebraska/Missouri/Iowa borders overnight, although a rogue shower may try and lift up toward the terminal. Winds will shift to the north heading into Wednesday morning and the northwest by the afternoon. There is a chance a few isolated thunderstorms may develop Wednesday in eastern Nebraska, but confidence in location is on the lower end at this time.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042-043. IA...None.