textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold this morning wind chills of 10 to 24 degrees below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 9 AM in northeast Nebraska.

- Expect some slick roads this afternoon into early Sunday with snow moving through (50-75% chance). Most locations should see totals of 0.5 to 1 inch, but a few localized 2 inch totals are possible, mainly in northeast Nebraska (10-20% chance).

- Warmer temperatures arrive Sunday into next work week, with highs climbing into the 30s and 40s. Many locations are expected to see 50s on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Early morning analysis showed surface high pressure locked in over the area, leading to clear skies, light winds and cold temperatures. As of 3 AM, most locations had dropped below 0, with a few spots in northeast NE seeing wind chills of 15 to 20 below. As the surface high continues to push southward early this morning, winds should strengthen a bit in northeast NE, allowing wind chills to fall into the 20-25 below range. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for these areas through 9 AM.

Attention then turns to snow chances this afternoon into early Sunday as a shortwave trough and surface low slide along the US/Canadian border and drag a warm front toward the area. Ahead of the front, guidance is in good agreement that snow will eventually develop, but model soundings continue to show a stout dry layer that will need to be overcome before we get anything in our area. Trends have been toward a little later start time in northeast NE, with consensus favoring around 4 PM, give or take an hour or 2. Once the snow band does form, it should push east rather quickly, with the vast majority of accumulation at given location likely occurring within about 3-4 hours. Regarding those amounts, most should see around 0.5-1", but some localized 2" totals could occur (10-20% chance), especially in northeast NE where guidance hints at maybe a touch more residence time of the snow and a little bit more convective nature. As the band exits, model soundings suggest we could see a very brief change over to a wintry mix of freezing rain/drizzle, snow, and/or sleet with signs of losing in-cloud ice and a warm nose pushing just above freezing. However, soundings also show we quickly desaturate as that occurs, so not expecting that wintry mix to cause much, if any, additional impact beyond the already snow-covered roads. Finally, should note that we could see some gusts on either side of 30 mph as the snow falls in northeast NE, so any heavier showers could lead to poor visibility at times. Those gusts should taper off pretty quickly as snow comes to an end.

Most precip should exit to our east by around 4 AM with southwesterly to westerly flow helping us to warm above freezing in most locations by noon on Sunday. Afternoon highs should be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, so the snow that does fall should start melting pretty quickly. Upper level ridging will start to nudge eastward into the area to start the week with highs remaining in the 30s to lower 40s. Guidance continues to hint at some weak shortwave energy sliding southeast into the area sometime Tuesday into Wednesday and bring additional chances for light snow (10-20%), though still a lot of details to be worked out regarding exact timing. If we do get anything, ensemble members strongly favor it remaining under 1".

Once that system passes, ridging will continue to edge eastward while another surface low slides along the Canadian border and drags a warm front into the area. Guidance is in good agreement that this frontal passage will be dry and also that westerly flow behind the front will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 40s to mid 50s on Thursday. We'll be a touch colder on Friday as the aforementioned low pushes by to our northeast Thursday night and drags a cold front through the area. However, still expect highs in the 40s for much of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A band of snow remains on track to push through the area this afternoon into early Sunday, though questions remain on timing and snow amounts. Highest potential for accumulation over 1" and IFR visibility will be at OFK, with under 1" expected at OMA and LNK and the heaviest lasting 2-3 hours at a given location. There is a small chance (10-20%) of a change over to a mix of snow, freezing rain, and/or sleet as precipitation comes to an end. Otherwise, expect ceilings around 2500-3500 ft along with southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kts as snow moves in and exits. VFR conditions and lighter winds are expected outside of precipitation.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NEZ011- 012-016>018-030>032. IA...None.