textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect westerly winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 40-45 mph into early this evening.

- Periodic rain chances are expected Thursday evening through Saturday (peaking at 60-80%), but amounts are looking on the lighter side (most under 0.25"). Dry and seasonable weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Early afternoon analysis showed the surface low responsible for our recent showers and storms spinning along the IA/MN border. Westerly to northwesterly wind gusts of 25-35 mph were seen area wide, with a few touching 40 mph. Those should die off fairly quickly this evening as the low pushes into WI and the pressure gradient relaxes.

The bulk of Thursday should be fairly nice with lighter winds and temperatures topping out in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Meanwhile, some shortwave energy will eject out of a larger scale trough over the Desert Southwest and approach our area Thursday evening. Latest guidance has trended toward the strongest forcing for ascent staying just to our west with the initial bit of energy and just to our east with a second on Friday. Still think we'll get at least some light rain in a decent chunk of our area from Thursday night through Saturday morning (60-80% chance), but amounts will probably leave a lot to be desired. Right now we're looking at 0.05" to 0.25" for most (probably shade toward the lower end), but portions of northeast NE could get clipped by some slightly higher amounts along with a few snowflakes early Saturday (little to no accumulation expected).

Rain should exit the area by Saturday afternoon, but it still won't be very pleasant outside despite temperatures in the 50s, as north winds look to be gusting 25-35 mph. A cold front will pass through Sunday night as a fairly strong trough and surface low pass through the Great Lakes. Guidance suggests associated precip (possibly light snow pending exact timing) will stay to our east and closer to the low. Plus soundings look pretty dry in the low levels for us, so just not much to work with over here, but given cyclonic flow and a little forcing, wouldn't completely rule out some sprinkles or flurries. Beyond that we'll be stuck under northwest flow aloft well into the next week. Guidance suggests we'll see a few various bits of shortwave energy slide through and give us at least small precip chances, but still lots of spread in timing. Right now the highest chances (still under 15%) would be sometime Tuesday/Wednesday. Temperature-wise, we'll stay in the 40s and 50s through Monday. Then the upper level ridge to our west will start edging eastward with surface flow becoming southerly allowing us to warm up into the 60s toward the middle of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions with thickening cirrus clouds through the period. There could be spotty rain showers toward the end of the TAF at KOFK, but too far out to add at this time, and the rain could very well be west of that location.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.