textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday (30-60%) and Sunday (60-90%).

- There is a low (15%) chance of severe thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday for portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- Near normal temperatures into next week with on and off shower and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

After an active day of severe weather during Thursday afternoon and evening, a reprieve is overspreading the region. A broad trough over the northern Rockies will become an upper-level low pressure as it inches into southern Canada. The shortwave trough that brought our weather, will continue to pivot around this larger feature and away from the area. Behind this, a cold front has moved through, bringing much cooler temperatures with it. Temperatures will be closer to normal on Friday. Low temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s start the day before gradually warming into the 60s during the afternoon. Surface high pressure overspreads the area during this time, offering quiet weather and mostly clear skies.

Heading into this weekend, the quiet weather will be short- lived. With the aforementioned upper-low meandering over southern Canada, another shortwave trough begins to pivot around it towards the Great Plains. As this occurs, a developing area of low pressure to our southwest begins to lift the cold front that moved through the area back north as a warm front. North of this front, increasing warm advection is expected. These two features support the development of showers and thunderstorms across portions of northeast Nebraska by early Saturday morning, before this activity gradually spreads east through the afternoon and evening. Overall, much of the area can expect a medium (30-60%) chance of precipitation. At this time there may exist a low (15%) chance of severe weather nearest the Nebraska- Kansas border. This area is forecast to be nearest the warm front and has the best shot of surface-based severe thunderstorms. The position of the front will be key for severe weather and will be closely monitored. Outside of this, temperatures remain near normal and similar to Friday.

Sunday into Monday sees a more potent system begin to take shape. As a trailing, stronger shortwave trough dives into the southern Great Plains, the warm front from Saturday may sink south towards the developing surface low pressure as a cold front. North of this front, much stronger warm advection is anticipated to support widespread shower and thunderstorm development. There is a high (60-90%) chance of precipitation on Sunday under this regime. As the previously mentioned trough begins to eject across the Great Plains, the developing surface low is forecast to track from southwest to northeast over the area. This is expected to support continued showers and thunderstorms through Sunday into early Monday before another cold front swings through the region behind the low. There will once again be a threat for severe thunderstorms. A low (15%) chance of severe weather may materialize ahead of the surface low pressure across southwest Iowa. The exact position of the low will dictate this threat and will continue to be closely monitored. Outside of the expected widespread wetting rains, temperatures continue their run near normal. When all is said and done on Monday, many locations may see around an inch of rain or potentially more.

Next week sees more of the same general weather pattern. A lull in the activity is anticipated to start the week, but temperatures should continue to hover near normal in the 60s each afternoon. Our next trough in the series is currently forecast to enter the picture by the middle of next week. This would support the return of showers and thunderstorm chances once again.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions overnight through the day on Friday under mostly clear skies apart from a few high cirrus clouds. Winds stay out of the north overnight tonight through Friday morning. A surface High moves through midday Friday leading to a couple hours of VRB winds during the afternoon before winds shift to east or northeasterly for the evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.