textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase Wednesday into Thursday (80-100%), with a few strong to severe storms possible in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Rainfall totals are expected to peak in the 0.5"-1.00" range for most.

- A cool and wet pattern is expected to persist through the work week, with additional rain and storm chances (60-80%) on Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Today through Thursday...

High temperatures were reached right around midnight Tuesday morning, before dropping into the 40s behind a cold front, and rebounding back into the 50s and 60s Tuesday afternoon. Spotty showers behind the passing cold front struggled to reach the surface Tuesday evening, with the 00Z OAX sounding indicating quite a bit of low and mid level dry air.

Low level moisture was able to pool ahead of an approaching shortwave last night, allowing a few showers and thunderstorms to develop across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, gradually pushing into southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa. Although midlevel lapse rates are fairly steep at 7 C/km, limited shear and instability will likely prevent these storms from producing much more than 40 mph wind gusts and small hail.

The shortwave will continue to make it's way through the region today through Thursday. Expect spotty showers and storms to become more widespread by this afternoon and evening. Cloud cover associated with the precipitation will limit temperatures to the upper 40s in northeast Nebraska, and mid 50s across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, Wednesday.

A mix of precipitation types is possible across far northeast Nebraska early Wednesday, although the latest model runs indicate colder air remaining just to our north. If light snow does develop, warm ground temperatures would likely limit any meaningful accumulations or impacts. Farther south, across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, a conditional severe storm threat may develop this evening. While instability remains somewhat modest (generally near or below 1000 J/kg MUCAPE), the proximity of the surface low will enhance low-level shear and hodograph curvature. This supports a non-zero tornado risk, along with the potential for severe hail and wind. The extent of this threat will depend heavily on the exact track of the surface low, as a more southerly track would shift the better severe potential south of the area. The SPC currently maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms across far southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa.

Showers will continue through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, before exiting the forecast area Thursday afternoon. Given the scattered nature of the storms, precipitation amounts will likely be variable across the region, However, there remains an 80- 100% chance of at least 0.5" over far northeast Nebraska and parts of western Iowa. Similar areas have up to a 50-70% chance of seeing 1"or more of much needed rain.

Temperatures will rebound with the decreasing cloud cover on Thursday, with most locations reaching the low 50s to mid 60s.

Friday and Beyond...

We could see a quick break in precipitation Thursday night, before the next low pressure system moves in on Friday. Similar to Wednesday's system, the presence of the associated surface low over the forecast area near peak daytime heating could enhance severe storm potential across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Once again, this threat will be greatly dependent on the placement of the warm sector, as a slight shift to the east would diminish severe chances, and a shift to the west could enhance them.

While rain looks likely Friday, some snow could mix in, especially across far northeast Nebraska Friday night into Saturday, as colder air wraps in. That being said latest model runs keep the deformation zone and snow potential just off to our north, once again. A few showers may linger through Saturday, before dry weather returns to the the forecast for the remainder of the weekend. Strong winds look likely behind the departing system Saturday, with gusts greater than 40 mph possible.

Mid-level ridging is expected to push into the central Plains Sunday and into early next week, supporting a warming trend and the return of dry conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions are observed at the start of the TAF cycle with a cloud deck around 5,000 ft and above. Expect ceilings to deteriorate to MVFR from south to north at terminals this morning, eventually reaching IFR after 22z. Will also see rain showers gradually develop across terminals this afternoon and last through much of the TAF period. KOMA and KOFK could be clipped by a thunderstorm after 22z, but probabilities remain at 15 to 30% at this time. Visibilities are expected to stay in MVFR for the time being, but could see localized drops to IFR after 00z at KLNK and KOFK. Winds will become east southeasterly, with some gustiness of 20 to 25 kts at KOFK and KLNK in the morning hours. Winds taper down late in the TAF period to less than 12 kts.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.