textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm Friday with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Dry and breezy conditions will lead to dangerous wildfire conditions in northeast Nebraska, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect.

- Turning colder this weekend with a 50-70% chance of snow Sunday. Some accumulation is possible with a 20-30% chance of travel impacts.

- Precipitation chances (30-60% PoPs) continue early next week with a mix of rain and snow currently forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1034 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Friday:

A shortwave trough over central Saskatchewan late this evening is forecast to undergo considerable amplification over the next 24 hours as an associated jet streak progresses into the Great Lakes, within the base of the intensifying system. At the surface, a cold front trailing a deepening cyclone over northwest Ontario will advance south through the northern Plains and upper-MS Valley, reaching northeast NE by afternoon. An unseasonably warm air mass is expected to develop ahead of the front with temperatures rising into the 60s to lower 70s during peak heating.

Steepening lapse rates on both sides of the front will foster deep, boundary-layer mixing with relative humidity falling into the 15-25% range by mid/late afternoon. The strongest winds (from the northwest) are expected in the post-frontal environment in northeast NE where gusts could reach 35 mph. Given the favorable overlap of critically low RH and gusty winds, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Very high fire danger expected across much of the remainder of the area.

Saturday:

A low-amplitude shortwave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks are forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper- MS Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop east through KS and MO, while a cold front surges south through the mid- MO Valley. The models continue to indicate a snowband associated with the northern Plains system remaining to our north with dry conditions expected. We may see a fairly large temperature gradient across the area with highs ranging from the 30s in our northern counties to 50s along the KS and MO borders.

Saturday night into Sunday night:

The 12z and 18z global models remain consistent in the progression of a subtle shortwave trough from the central Rockies through the central Plains this period. In the low levels, post-frontal, cold advection continues through at least Saturday evening before weakening. By Sunday, a southerly low- level jet develops across the central Plains in response to the approaching mid-level system with strong warm-advection/ isentropic upglide developing across the mid-MO Valley. Those processes will largely drive the precipitation chances this period with the highest PoPs of 50-70% forecast on Sunday. It still appears that snow will be the predominant precipitation type. However, there is still a model signal for some light freezing rain or drizzle mixing in mainly Sunday morning across southeast NE where the aggregate of GEFS, EPS, and Canadian Ensemble (GEPS) soundings indicate the presence of a warm nose atop a sub-freezing near surface layer.

The location and specific amounts of snowfall still remain uncertain. The 18z runs of the EPS and GEFS both trended lower with snowfall potential compared to the 12z runs. The GEFS continues to focus the highest probability (50-60% chance) of 1" or more in far southeast NE. In contrast, the EPS shows a 20-30% chance of 1" or more in southwest IA, with the 27/01z run of the NBM indicating a 30-40% chance of 1" or more from east- central NE into southwest IA.

Those with travel plans should keep an eye on the forecast as some impacts are possible (20-30% chance).

Monday through Wednesday:

The 12z and 18z ensemble means are in generally good agreement in depicting the slow eastward progression of a mid-level trough through the Desert Southwest with downstream, confluent flow over the central part of the nation. However, subtle differences in the timing and track of embedded perturbations lead to considerably more model variability in the evolution of the surface pattern. In general, it appears that we will remain to the north of a surface front extending from the southern Plains into the Ozarks with the greatest precipitation potential existing in the vicinity of that boundary.

This forecast update will indicate precipitation chances through the duration of this period with the highest PoPs of 40-60% on Monday night and Wednesday. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 40s with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s, leading to a mix of rain and snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period at the terminals. Expect northwest winds to shift this evening as a cold front drops in from the north. Winds will shift to the east after midnight. Dry conditions are expected through the TAF period. Looking ahead, another round of precipitation is expected Sunday.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012- 015>018. IA...None.