textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Thursday will bring the potential for more fire weather concerns as gusty winds and low RH values will be in place over portions of the area. A Fire Weather Watch is in place from 9 AM to 7 PM.

- Low chances (20-40%) for showers and storms on Thursday with better chances for rain holding off until Saturday night through Monday.

- Potential is increasing for periodic strong-to-severe storms Saturday through early Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Tonight and Wednesday:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a compact shortwave moving through the depressed flow over the eastern third of the CONUS, while northwesterly flow continues over the central third. To the west, a negatively-tilted mid/upper ridge is being impinged upon by an incoming cutoff low off of the Pacific Northwest coastal region. High pressure is building into the forecast area from the northwest, filling in behind the frontal passage from earlier today and its associated clouds/sprinkles that it was able to muster. This high pressure will work with the clear skies to help low temperatures fall into the mid 40s to just above 50 degrees, with many places seeing calm winds at times.

Wednesday will follow in the same dry foot steps as today, but with winds on the lighter end at 5-10 mph. Highs similar to this afternoon (upper 70s to mid 80s) will feel a bit hotter without any cooling wind, but that will thankfully take the edge off of any fire danger, capping it at "very high". Humidity values bottom out between 16-22%, hitting their lowest point at 5 PM. Winds that start out of the northwest will eventually give way to southerlies that begin ramping up overnight into the early morning hours of Thursday.

Thursday and Beyond:

Forecast impacts ramp up Thursday, marked by the arrival of a potent mid/upper shortwave to the Saskatchewan and Manitoba that will help develop a strong mass response in the low levels. Southerly winds at 850 mb are expected to reach 50 kts across portions of far northeast Nebraska, peaking during the mid-to-late morning hours only to very slowly diminish over the course of the day, while RH values drop below 40% as early as 9 AM. Recent collaboration with fire and fuels experts across northeast Nebraska has been focused on the abundance of dry grass that still lingers in those areas. With RH values forecast to bottom out in the 23-32% range, those strong winds that gust to 40-45+ mph will be plenty to overcome any of the shorter greenup and allow for rapid fire spread if something ignites. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 9 AM Thursday through 7 PM to encompass the most critical conditions.

Also of note, incoming height falls, warm air advection in the lower levels, and mass convergence are working to give a 200-300 mb layer of lift that will help develop some scattered elevated convection chances Thursday morning into the afternoon. Those chances will generally be concentrated along a couple of ribbons of increased RH at ~700 mb, keeping down the overall chances for one particular location. During the late afternoon and evening hours, very high based convection is hinted at in several of the CAM solutions, very dry layers below any base signaling a low-end wind threat during the late afternoon/evening hours. Those signals are strongest across south-central Nebraska into Kansas, but is hard to ignore the chances of a storm to put out a gust as it dies heading into our area.

We're still on track for summer-like heat Friday heading into the weekend, where highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are increasing in likelihood. Persistent southerly flow and continued focus of the jet stream to the north of the area will help usher in those abnormal conditions, with the other aspect to watch besides the heat being increasing storm chances. Dewpoints in the 60s and decent to favorable lapse rates aloft align for the weekend, with both the SPC and machine learning outlooks highlighting at least portions of the area both Saturday and Sunday, with the better chances Sunday lingering into Monday as a digging trough helps trigger lee cyclogenesis that ejects the surface system to the northeast. We'll be rooting for all the rain that we can get given our dry conditions/areas of drought, and most if not all of the area is under the gun for 0.25" or more with heading into next work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light winds continue this morning as surface high pressure moves overhead. Winds will gradually shift to the southeast later this afternoon and evening as high pressure exits the area to the east.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033. IA...None.