textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Off and on chances for showers and storms and hot temperatures in the 90s, with heat index values near 100, are expected to continue through the upcoming work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Today and Tonight...

A few thunderstorms pulsed through the region this morning, but struggled with strong low level shear essentially tearing them apart. CAMs continue to allow weak showers and storms to bubble up in the moist, unstable airmass though the afternoon. Temperatures have struggled to reach the low to mid 80s by noon today, given the lingering morning cloud cover. Outside of the clouds, some sites have pushed into the upper 80s and low 90s. Temperatures are expected to continue to climb into the low to mid 90s across the forecast area this afternoon, aided by strong southwesterly flow. Heat indices could reach as high as 100-105 in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Exactly how warm we get will be greatly dependent on how much cloud cover lingers through the afternoon.

Another round of showers and storms may develop late tonight/early Monday morning, in the warm airmass ahead of a weak cold front drifting in from the northeast. While a strong wind gust or two may be possible, widespread severe weather looks unlikely.

Monday and Beyond...

The upper ridge that brought this weekend's heat will slip to the east Monday, with flatter southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Temperatures will still remain well above average, with highs topping out in the upper 80s and 90s through the upcoming week.

A weak front will linger over the forecast area Monday, providing a potential impetus for convective initiation. However, recent CAM runs have been waffling on whether or not strong updrafts will form. If storms are able to develop, steep midlevel lapse rates, up to 30- 40 kts of 0-6km shear, and 1000-2000 J/kg of instability would bring the potential for a few severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Multiple shortwaves rippling through the region will bring repeated chances for showers and storms through the upcoming week. Unfortunately, widespread precipitation doesn't look like a slam dunk, as upper ridging will gradually push back into the Central Plains from the west. Overall daily precip chances will remain around 10-30%, with occasional isolated strong storms possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly winds will shift to the west/northwest by the end of the period. Wind speeds will occasionally gust up to 15 to 20 kts during the afternoon, before dropping below 12 kts by around 00Z this evening. Isolated pop-up showers and storms will be possible through this afternoon, with another round possible Monday morning (15-20%).

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.