textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures continue through Monday with widespread highs in the 80s and even low 90s.

- Our next weather system arrives by mid-week, bringing cooler temperatures and marking the return of rain chances to the forecast.

- Fall-like weather returns next weekend with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Temperatures remain warm and Summer-like this afternoon with continued southerly flow over much of the Great Plains. Thick high cirrus associated with a passing disturbance will limit the amount of mixing that can be achieved through this afternoon. This keeps wind speeds and temperatures lower than they might have otherwise been. That said, well above normal temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s with peak gusts of 25-30 MPH can be expected.

As part of the remnants of Rachel eject northeast across the Rocky Mountains tonight, an area of low pressure begins to develop over Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. This feature helps a cold front sink south into the area. Unfortunately, this front stalls not too far into northeast Nebraska. South of the front, continued warm advection and moisture return keeps overnight temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected behind the front over northeast Nebraska.

The cold front remains nearly stationary on Monday. Daytime heating may even lift the front back north slightly. As warm, moist southerly to southwesterly flow continues, expected one last day of widespread 80s and even low 90s. An upper-level low pressure moves into the Great Basin Monday night. This redevelops low pressure over eastern Colorado. The cold front finally sags south through most of the region in response. The cold front will become nearly stationary once again over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa though. Warm advection and weak ascent ahead of the approaching system may help to initiate a few showers near the front during this time. That said, significant dry air in the lowest levels of the atmosphere keeps precipitation light.

By Tuesday, the previously mentioned upper-level low slowly shifts east towards the Four Corners region. At the same time, remnants of Simon are forecast to eject northeast towards the area. These features are expected to result in shower and thunderstorm development across much of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. With the front mostly through the area, initial rain chances may be confined to southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. There remains some potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening with a few models lifting the front back north towards the Interstate 80 corridor. In this event, greater rain chances and even some severe weather may be possible. In either case, as the upper-low continues its slow trek east, expect increasing rain chances across the entire region heading into Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures cool significantly during this time due to a combination of cooler temperatures behind the front, rain, and increased cloud cover. Temperatures in the 70s to low 80s on Tuesday fall into the mid 60s by Thursday.

Fall-like weather is set to return by week's end into next weekend. A strong area of high pressure sinks south from Canada into the Great Plains. This brings much cooler air along with it. There remains uncertainty on just how cold temperatures may get, but we can anticipate 50s and 60s for afternoon highs and 40s to even 30s for overnight lows. If trends become even colder, there may be the potential for a light frost or freeze this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions continue across the region. High altitude cirrus moves over the area this afternoon. Gusty south winds return, but remain weaker than Saturday. Peak gusts up to around 25 kts can be expected. A front sags south into the area tonight. This front stalls over northeast Nebraska. As a result, winds at OFK will briefly shift to northwest behind the front. South winds continue at OMA and LNK, but weaken after sunset. LLWS is expected south of the front, including at OFK and LNK overnight. South winds return for all Monday morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.