textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- 15-30% chance for some scattered showers or storms early Tuesday morning across northeast Nebraska. Highs warm to the 90s with heat index values of 100+ across southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.

- 40-60% chance for storms after 8 pm across northeast Nebraska. Storms could be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and a small risk for a tornado.

- Hot and humid weather continues into the weekend along with some small chances for nightly storms. Warm lows in the mid to upper 70s will provide little relief overnight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The southeast CONUS H5 ridge will keep pushing east on Thursday. Thereafter, will see large scale amplification occur across much of the central CONUS resulting in our prolonged stretch of hot and humid conditions through Sunday. Overnight lows remain warm, primarily for areas along and south of the Platte River into southwest Iowa through Saturday. Due to the little relief provided at night combined with consecutive days of 75+ lows in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, may need to consider potential heat headlines. For now, have held off issuance after collaboration with neighboring WFOs, but will likely need to reassess trends the next day for potential issuance. Our next chance for storms will be late Wednesday night into Thursday which could provide a little reprieve from heat and throw a wrench into heat headlines, but the best storm chances look to be confined in our far northern areas where minT recovers better.

Periodic chances for storms will persist into the weekend too, but chances remain at 15 to 20%, particularly at nighttime and are likely driven by persistent WAA and any weak disturbances that round the ridge. A better chance (30-45%) for precip returns late Monday as the ridge becomes flattened by a potent Canadian trof, but significant model discrepancies are apparent amongst model guidance at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Increasing high clouds from the west tonight with a frontal boundary draped across southeast Nebraska. We're watching storm activity over eastern Colorado which could ride up into northeast Nebraska around 12Z Tuesday. Not confident in how well they will hold together with guidance waffling back-and-forth on whether we see anything at all over NE Nebraska Tuesday morning. Went ahead and added -SHRA in the TAF for KOFK with my best guess on timing. Could potentially be lightning, though, so amendments may be needed. Otherwise, expect quiet weather at KOMA and KLNK under partly to mostly clear skies through Tuesday. Winds will be increasing out of the south Tuesday afternoon, more southeasterly at KOFK. Models show a strong storm complex moves through NE Nebraska Tuesday evening around 03-06Z. Right now guidance has it staying north of KOFK, but could change with guidance as we get closer.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.