textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds are expected on Wednesday, with morning southerly winds shifting to northwesterly as a cold front pushes through midday. Winds gusts may reach 40-50 mph, wind a wind advisory in place for portions of the area.

- Very high fire danger will exist across northeast Nebraska on Wednesday as warm, dry and windy conditions prevail.

- Widespread precipitation chances return on Saturday, with a few strong to severe storms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon show a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough digging across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, placing the region under northwesterly flow aloft. Surface high pressure has built in a behind a departing cold front, bringing calm and pleasant conditions today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Light winds will gradually back to southerly this evening.

Winds will increase overnight as a deepening surface low and associated frontal system moves across the area. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight across northeast Nebraska into western Iowa along as associated warm front, with PoPs around 15-30%. Instability and moisture remain fairly limited, which should keep severe weather potential low.

Southerly winds will increase to around 35-40 mph ahead of the cold front's arrival overnight into Wednesday morning. Enhanced southerly gusts of 40-50 mph are expected later in the morning generally south of I-80 as the boundary layer decouples and mixes into a strong (50- 60 kt) LLJ. A Wind Advisory is in place for this area from 7 AM through 11 AM. A brief dampening in winds is expected as the low passes overhead before the cold front pushes southward across the area during the late morning and afternoon hours, bringing a quick shift to northwesterly winds with increasing gusts behind the boundary. Northwesterly wind gusts of 40-50 mph will continue through the afternoon, with the strongest gusts expected across northeast Nebraska. An additional Wind Advisory remains in place for northeast Nebraska and western Iowa from noon through 9 PM Wednesday.

Warm, dry and windy conditions on Wednesday will bring very high fire weather concerns, especially across northeast Nebraska where fuels remain dry. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to fall into the 20-25% range. A Red Flag Warning was considered for northeast Nebraska, but was ultimately leaned against after collaborating with fuel partners in the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s, the warmest day of the week for most locations. Winds will gradually diminish Thursday evening into the overnight hours.

Thursday and Beyond...

Strong northwesterly winds aloft will usher in a brief period of CAA, dropping highs back into the mid 70s to low 80s on Thursday. A few spotty showers will be possible Thursday morning along a stalled surface convergent boundary. However, a fairly dry sub-cloud layer should limit most precipitation from making it to the surface (PoPs peaking at 15%). Surface high pressure and weak mid-level ridging will then support calm conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Friday.

A more active weather pattens looks to develop in the extended range. A shortwave disturbance and associated low are forecast to move through the mid-MO valley on Saturday, bringing the next chance for severe weather. SPC has placed much of eastern Nebraska in a 15% severe weather probability, supported by GEFS and EPS based machine learning guidance also displaying a 10-15% probability of severe weather over much of the area. This will be a period to monitor as details continue to come into better focus. Highs are expected to reach the 80s, with PoPs peaking around 70-90% Saturday night into early Sunday.

Sunday into early next week, highs generally persist in the upper 70s and 80s, along with periodic 20-30% PoPs. The upper-level pattern looks to stay somewhat active into next week with weak disturbances tracking by daily.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will shift to the south this evening before increasing in speed after sunset as a low-level jet develops. Surface wind gusts of 25-30 kts are possible across the area overnight. In addition, LLWS is anticipated with strong south winds above 50 kts at 1500 and 2000 ft. A cold front approaches the area just before sunrise. Winds will weaken and shift towards the west briefly ahead of the front. The strong cold front quickly pushes through the region from northwest to southeast Wednesday morning. Current timing has strong northwest winds with the front arriving at OFK at 13Z, LNK at 15Z, and OMA at 16Z. Wind speeds will continue to increase heading into Wednesday afternoon due to increasing mixing heights.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ068- 089>093. IA...Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for IAZ043. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ090-091.