textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms across southeast Nebraska early Tuesday morning and across far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa early Wednesday morning.

- Wednesday afternoon is expected to be hot, dry, and windy with very high fire danger forecast across portions of northeast Nebraska.

- A more active weather pattern arrives late this week into this weekend. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms exist through this time period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A weak disturbance is pivoting across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region tonight. A weak front accompanies this feature. This front will do little to temperatures, but will bring a low (10-30%) chance of showers and a few rumbles of thunder to portions of southeast Nebraska early Tuesday morning. Temperatures start in the 50s to near 60 as surface high pressure fills in behind the front during this time. Another beautiful afternoon is expected with temperatures warming into the low 80s under mostly sunny skies with light winds. This weather will be hard to beat for mid-June.

A more substantial weather system is set to dive across the Plains heading into Wednesday. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may skirt far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the system rapidly approaches. This activity will be working with limited moisture and instability, so little impact is expected. With the progression of this system continuing to be faster in the latest model guidance, the afternoon thunderstorm threat has become more and more unlikely. As a result, a quicker frontal passage will result in a hot, dry, and windy afternoon. Wind gusts across a large portion of the area may reach as high as 35-45 mph by afternoon as temperatures push well into the 80s and relative humidity falls to around 25%. For much of the area this isn't a problem with green vegetation in place, but lingering dry fuels over portions of northeast Nebraska may support very high fire danger. The wind and fire threat remains on the marginal side, but wind advisories or fire weather products may be required.

Surface high pressure fills in behind Wednesday's system for Thursday. Lighter winds and cooler temperatures are anticipated for the afternoon. Most locations see highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for another beautiful day. Beyond Thursday, a transition to a more active weather pattern remains on track. As the more progressive weather pattern takes shape, several disturbances are likely to traverse the region late this week through the weekend. Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast through this period. While peak severe weather season is coming to an end, severe weather potential may still be possible and this will need to be monitored as this time period approaches.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds will shift to the west early this afternoon, increasing to around 5-10kts. Heading into this evening, winds become southerly around 15-20kts. LLWS is expected to develop at KOFK by 04Z, and KOMA/KLNK terminals by 05-06Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.