textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of snow is expected to bring at least minor travel impacts to parts of the area Friday into Friday night. The highest chances will be in northeast Nebraska into west- central Iowa where there is a 50-60% chance of at least an inch of snow.

- Winter weather is expected to continue to impact travel through at least Saturday, with additional snow combined with gusty winds for much of the area. However, confidence remains low on snowfall amounts.

- Bitter cold is set after Saturday's system, with highs mostly in the 20s and lows falling into the single digits and teens through Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 402 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Early morning analysis showed the cutoff low responsible for our strong winds Tuesday spinning through MN/WI with the local forecast area remaining under a decently strong pressure gradient at the surface. As a result, northwest winds were continuing to gust 25 to 40 mph early this morning. Winds should continue to gradually taper off as the low continues to push eastward and surface high pressure builds in today, with any gusts expected to be under 20 mph by around 6 PM. High pressure will stick around through Thanksgiving and keep us quiet, though we'll be cooler, with highs in the 30s to lower 40s.

Guidance remains in good agreement that we'll see snow chances arrive on Friday as a shortwave trough starts to push into the northern Rockies, a surface low spins up over CO/WY, and a band of frontogenesis sets up somewhere across the SD/NE/MN/IA border area. While there will be some dry air in place, strong southerly flow ahead of the surface low will advect in a decent amount of moisture through the day Friday, with a band of snow starting to develop by late morning/early afternoon. While there are still some differences in guidance regarding in band placement, overall consensus suggests the heaviest accumulations will remain to our northeast, where around 3-6" could fall in the heart of the band. Meanwhile over our area, through Friday evening, guidance suggests a 30-60% chance of at least 1 inch northeast of a line from Norfolk to Omaha and only about a 10-30% chance of 2 inches anywhere in that same area. So overall, think it will be fairly minor accumulations in our area through Friday evening, though maybe a few slick spots develop, especially in portions of northeast NE into west-central IA.

Precip chances will become more widespread on Saturday and while we'll still have to contend with dry air on the southwest side of the Friday night band, the continued moisture advection and the incoming shortwave trough should help to saturate things Saturday morning. The big questions will be 1) precip type/changeover time at a given location and 2) how long snow lingers in the area. Both of these will largely hinge on the track of the surface low. There's actually reasonably good agreement on its track with the 00Z guidance, though of course just small changes in track could have notable impacts on temperatures and resulting precip type. Consensus currently suggests the low tracks roughly along the KS/OK border early Saturday then pushes northeast through eastern KS and into MO by Saturday afternoon. This would result in mostly snow north of Interstate 80 and a period of rain across far southeast NE and far southwest IA with a fairly clean changeover to snow (i.e. little to no mix) as cold air works in from the northwest. Guidance is also in decent agreement that the system exits fairly quickly, with precip coming to an end by midnight Saturday night.

Now for the potential impacts. Obviously, snow will lead to slick roads, but even areas that see mainly rain could see that moisture freeze onto roadways as much colder air moves in later in the day. In addition, guidance is trending upward on winds, with GFS soundings showing 40+ kts at the top of the boundary layer. Furthermore, EPS guidance shows a 50-90% chance of seeing gusts of at least 35 mph during the day Saturday, which would lead to very poor visibility in areas of accumulating snow. The question there is will the strongest winds overlap with the heaviest snow. So overall, lots of smaller scale details to work out, but it's looking likely (50-70% chance) that we'll see at least minor travel impacts in a good chunk of the area Saturday. If you have any travel plans, make sure to check the forecast and adjust if needed.

Guidance is also starting to come into better agreement Sunday into next week, with a less amplified trough digging into the western CONUS favoring decreased precipitation chances. There does look to be some light snow potential within the trough axis itself, but there remains spread on timing and location of that precip, with consensus largely keeping it to our southwest Sunday into Monday (only a 10-15% chance of light snow for us in that timeframe). Otherwise, as mentioned above, it will be much colder Sunday into the early part of next week, with highs mostly in the 20s and daytime wind chills in the single digits/teens. Low temperatures will be in the single digits to lower teens and wind chills could dip below 0 for many locations, especially Sunday night/Monday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 539 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

2500-3500 ft clouds expected to linger into this afternoon, with MVFR ceilings expected for a few hours early in the period at OFK before they scatter out. VFR condtions are then expected thereafter, with some passing mid level clouds overnight. Northwest winds will cotninue gusting 20-30 kts into this afternoon, but speeds should gradually decrease from west to east, dropping below 10 kts by late afternoon/early evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.