textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly cold conditions continue today and tomorrow, with morning wind chills 10 to 20 degrees below zero and highs in the teens today. Wind chills Sunday morning will be in the negative single digits.

- Sunday will be windy, with strong northwesterly wind gusts of 40-50+ mph and spotty snow showers (15-30% chance) that could briefly reduce visibility.

- Another surge of arctic air arrives late Sunday into Monday, bringing a return to subzero wind chill temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this morning depicts an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough over the central Plains and Upper Midwest. This feature has enhanced CAA across the region, ushering in a frigid arctic airmass accompanied by gusty winds. Morning low temperatures have dropped into the single digits, while wind gusts of 25-35 mph are producing wind chills in the 10 to 20 degrees below zero range, with the coldest values focused across northeast Nebraska. A Cold Weather Advisory was considered for portions of northeast Nebraska, however, wind chills approaching 20 below zero are expected to be brief and localized, so an advisory was not issued. Regardless, conditions will remain bitterly cold across the area. In addition, a few flurries will continue to be possible across far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa through the morning as cyclonic flow persists overhead.

High temperatures will struggle to recover today, with readings only reaching the teens. Gusty winds will keep wind chills confined to the single digits for much of the day, maintaining uncomfortable conditions. Winds will gradually diminish during the latter half of the day as a narrow corridor of surface high pressure moves into the region.

Sunday is shaping up to be a more variable and interesting day. Overnight lows will once again fall into the positive single digits, with early morning wind chills dipping into the single digits below zero. Around daybreak, a warm front will move eastward across the area ahead of a potent shortwave trough tracking across the northern Plains. This will cause winds to veer to westerly and eventually northwesterly behind the boundary. In the wake of the warm front, temperatures will briefly rebound into the 30s to low 40s with increasing winds.

Winds will continue to strengthen through Sunday afternoon, with gusty northwesterly winds becoming the primary concern. Both HREF and NBM guidance indicate a 50-75% probability of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph across portions of the area, with some solutions suggesting potential gusts of 50-55+ mph across northeast Nebraska. With this in mind, have opted to bump up winds for Sunday in the latest forecast package. A Wind Advisory will likely need to be collaborated with the subsequent forecast package. Later Sunday afternoon/evening, another cold front will sweep through the area, ushering in renewed CAA and another surge of arctic air. This will bring a quick end to the brief period of milder temperatures and set the stage for a return to much colder conditions. The overall pattern will be similar to Friday, with model soundings depicting steep lapse rates in the dendritic growth zone supporting shallow, spotty snow showers. While little to no accumulation is expected for most, any show showers that develop could produce brief, sharp reductions in visibility when combined with the strong winds. PoPs currently peak at 15-30% Sunday afternoon. Given the low QPF and spotty nature of this setup, refinements will be needed in subsequent forecast packages.

Monday and Beyond...

The cooler post-frontal airmass will be firmly in place by Monday morning, with low temperatures falling back into the single digits. Combined with lingering gusty winds, wind chills will dip into the 5 to 15 degrees below zero range. Ongoing CAA will limit daytime heating, keeping Monday afternoon highs confined into the teens and 20s.

For the remainder of the work week, temperatures are expected to gradually moderate back toward seasonal average. Highs will generally range from the 30s into the lower 40s as northwesterly flow aloft remains the dominant pattern. While no particular day stands out for impactful precipitation, long-range guidance does periodically suggest shortwave disturbances tracking near the area. However, there is considerable spread among long range guidance with respect to both timing and track of any notable disturbances. As a result, PoPs remain below 20% through the period, though a brief chance of precipitation cannot be ruled out if guidance comes into better agreement in later forecast cycles.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 450 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A few patchy areas of flurries/light snow continue this morning along with spotty MVFR ceilings. The highest confidence in seeing a few snowflakes are brief MVFR conditions is at KOFK and KOMA through 15Z before improving to VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast period. Ceilings will gradually break up and improve through the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will continue gusting up to 30 kts before calming under 12 kts by 18/00-02Z, gradually backing to southwesterly tonight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.