textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Another warm day will bring high to very high fire danger back again on Tuesday, mainly to northeast Nebraska.

- Shower and storm chances Wednesday night into Thursday (50-70%). There is a low (15%) chance of severe storms for portions of area Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures going into next weekend with more chances for showers (15-25%) Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 927 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Weather is fairly quiet across the Central US this evening due to a dominant ridging pattern across much of the CONUS. Satellite shows a few high cirrus clouds over eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Temperatures warmed up into the upper 70s to mid 80s today, with temperatures this evening still lingering in the low-to-mid 70s as of 9 PM.

A shortwave trough moving across Minnesota into the Great Lakes region has created a low-level jet with increased south- southwesterly winds across our area this afternoon. Overnight tonight we'll see winds only strengthen, just off the surface as the boundary layer decouples. Models show a 45-55kt LLJ across our area overnight. Though the strongest winds will remain aloft, we will still see breezy winds out of the southwest overnight. A second shortwave will bring a weak cold front in early Tuesday, pushing the LLJ off to the east, but stalling across our area. While temperature difference north and south of this boundary will be negligible (mid 80s for highs), we will see a difference in moisture. We'll see drier air similar to what we saw today in northeast Nebraska while humidity will be about 20% higher across southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa. Humidity will be critically low across northeast Nebraska, but winds should be light north of the front keeping fire weather conditions from becoming extreme.

Another ridge moves across our area on Wednesday, amplifying moisture advection into the region. With this, we'll see increasing clouds helping to dampen afternoon highs a bit, only reaching into the low 80s across much of southeast NE and southwest IA, while clearer areas to the north may approach 90. Our next chance for rain arrives overnight Wednesday night into Thursday as a low pressure system moves out of the Canadian Rockies into the Dakotas. With the primary forcing mechanism mainly to our north, the best chance for showers and storms with this system will be across northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa (30-40%). We will still see lower chances across the rest of our area (15-25%).

Better chances for storms arrive Thursday afternoon and evening as the cold front pushes through. Differences in timing of this cold front will play a significant role in our severe storm potential through this period. Faster solutions clear our area by mid-to-late morning, putting the severe storm threat more over central Iowa. Slower solutions keep us in the warm sector for longer and develop a line of strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon, with all severe weather types on the table. The Storm Prediction Center keeps this period highlighted with a 15% Severe Storm potential, likely changing to a marginal or slight risk as we transition into day 3 later tonight.

Cooler weather expected going into the weekend as a Canadian air mass sinks south over the Central Plains behind the cold front. Highs going into the weekend will drop into the 60s on Friday and upper 50s to low 60s Saturday and Sunday. A second lobe of vorticity moving through over the weekend could bring additional chances for showers Saturday into Sunday, with a few snowflakes possibly mixing in over northeast Nebraska early Sunday. We don't expect to be cold enough as of now for anything to accumulate.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period under scattered cigs around FL250, clearing overnight. Primary concern is wind and wind shear with LLWS expected overnight. A low-level jet will ramp up winds just off the surface around 1500-2000 ft to 48-53kt which will persist overnight out of the southwest, becoming more westerly toward 10-12Z. These strong winds off the surface will relax toward 10-12Z with surface winds also weakening and becoming more westerly. A weak stationary front setting up across the area will shift winds at KOFK to easterly toward the end of the TAF period, while winds at KOMA become mostly variable along the front, and winds at KLNK turn south to southeasterly.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.