textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold conditions will favor a widespread frost and a freeze tonight through early Saturday morning

- Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (20-40%) Sunday night through Wednesday. Highest chance across southeast Nebraska/far southwest Iowa Monday night/early Tuesday.

- Temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s Saturday through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tonight and Saturday:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows much of the mid/upper influence continuing to sequester the convective activity to the Gulf Coast and portions of the southeast while ridging builds to the west. We find ourselves with increasing heights at the surface with no cloud cover incoming, making for the most efficient radiational cooling that we've seen over the last week or so. Overnight temperatures are set to plunge to the upper 20s in northeast Nebraska and lower 30s in Iowa/southeast Nebraska, with weakening winds as well. These conditions will make frost formation likely across the forecast area, with a Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory in effect overnight.

By tomorrow morning winds will be on the increase and start out westerly, adding an adiabatic warming component from the slight downslope flow from the High Plains. Mid/upper heights will also be on the rise and we'll benefit by mixing into warmer air as well, sending highs into the mid-to-upper 60s. Without any better moisture return from the south, we'll continue to lean dry, but not windy enough to cause any major fire concerns (especially with the recent green-up). Overnight, lows will only fall into the mid-to-upper 40s, giving flower gardens and other plants a break from any frosty conditions.

Sunday and Beyond:

Sunday and Monday hold the warmest two days of the forecast, as the ridge to the west breaks down and its remnants move overhead. A weak boundary/wind shift will move through the area and try to make for some low-end rainfall chances that are not expected to amount to much more than a trace in total where they do end up falling. The latter half of Monday through Wednesday continue to look like the best chance that we'll have for widespread rainfall for the region, but the last few runs of the deterministic models depict the stalwart trough to the northeast pivot southward through the region slightly before a cutoff low arrives from the Great Basin. This has favored a more southerly extent to the precipitation during this timeframe, favoring Kansas and Missouri for meaningful rainfall, while we in Nebraska and Iowa get glances of moisture. This will turn highs a bit cooler, into the 50s/60s for Tuesday and Wednesday before warming Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are set to hold strong for the next 24 hours, with north-northwesterly winds holding on a bit longer before becoming increasingly light heading into the overnight hours. By 03z, expect surface wind speeds to fall below 5 kts at all three TAF sites, becoming calm for periods of the overnight hours. By 10z, winds will begin shifting westerly and remain that way through tomorrow afternoon at less than 10 kts.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>034-042>044. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ043. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ055-056-069-079- 080-090-091.