textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances persist across northeast Nebraska this afternoon and evening (70-90%). Rain moves into eastern Nebraska and west central Iowa overnight (30-50% chance).

- Another round of rain (15-30% chance) generally southeast of a line from Fairbury, NE to Harlan, IA Tuesday. Slightly cooler with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

- Active pattern continues for the rest of the week into early next week with more rain chances. Temperatures remain in the 60s and 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Another H5 wave rides the southwest flow on Wednesday, this time tracking along the South Dakota/Nebraska border area into western Minnesota. A sfc low spins up and tracks northeast of the area placing us in the warm sector. Will see a plume of 500-1,000 J/kg of instability overspread portions of eastern Nebraska by Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching sfc cold front. A few storms could ignite by that timeframe, but any organized severe threat doesn't appear probable at this time. The best 0-6km shear appears located well north of the plume, and the best synoptic scale forcing and height falls are located in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Machine learning guidance at the minimum suggests a low 5% chance we could see a strong to severe storm. PoPs during this timeframe remain at 20 to 40%, peaking to 50 to 70% by Wednesday evening across far eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa.

Our active pattern continues through a good chunk of the long term period as we remain in zonal to southwesterly flow. Expect periodic rain chances to continue late Thursday night into Friday (50 to 70% chance) as another mid-level wave approaches from the southwest. Rain lingers into Saturday, while by Sunday another trof approaches from the Intermountain West. Lots of spread still seen amongst guidance though in regards to placement of features.

Highs largely remain in the 60s and 70s for most of the period. Wednesday appears to be the warmest day with some spots in our far southeast potentially hitting 80F.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Rain and low stratus are observed over portions of northeast Nebraska this afternoon. IFR ceilings may scatter out some at KOFK this afternoon, but expect them to come back as a second wave of showers approaches terminals from the west. Have added some -SHRA mentions at KLNK too with this issuance based on latest model trends. Confidence on showers reaching KOMA remains too low still for inclusion into TAF. As showers move east, expect another MVFR cloud deck to overspread terminals and linger through the period. Easterly winds remain under 12 kts at the start of the period, becoming west northwesterly overnight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.