textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- An impactful winter weather system is expected on Sunday with snow and strong wind gusts (50-60 mph) bringing near-blizzard conditions to much of the area.

- Cooler conditions return Sunday into Monday, with Monday morning wind chills in the 10 to 20 degrees below zero range.

- A warming trend will take hold by mid-week, with highs reaching the 70s and potentially low 80s by the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Saturday through Monday...

A few radar reflectivity returns continue to move across portions of northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa late this evening as weak WAA and a narrow band of frontogenesis brush the area. Model soundings indicate a fairly dry sub-cloud layer, suggesting much of the precipitation will struggle to reach the surface. That said, a few flurries may be possible (PoPs 20-30%) across far northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa early Saturday morning, though no impacts are expected.

Attention then turns to an impactful system through Sunday as an amplifying mid-level trough translates from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. In response, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur across eastern CO/western NE Saturday, with the surface low tracking eastward across Nebraska through early Sunday. Ahead of the low, a warm front lifting northward across the region Saturday will lead to a sharp temperatures gradient across the forecast area. Areas near the NE/SD border are expected to remain north of the boundary with highs in the mid 50s, while locations near the NE/KS border reside in the warm sector with highs potentially reaching the 70s.

Precipitation is expected to develop late Saturday night into early Sunday as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough and associated low. Initial precipitation may begin as spotty light rain showers before colder air wrapping in behind the system supports a transition to snow Sunday morning. PoPs currently peak in the 70-90% late Sunday morning into the early afternoon. The surface low is currently forecast to move into western Iowa by mid-morning Sunday. On the backside of the cyclone, strengthening CAA and increasing mid-level frontogenesis may support the development of a deformation band across portions of the region late Sunday morning into the afternoon. This area could see periods of moderate snowfall, potentially enhanced by convective elements within the band, as supported by 14/00Z CAM guidance. Snowfall will gradually taper off from west to east through Sunday afternoon and early evening.

There remains some uncertainty in the exact track and forward speed of the surface low, which will strongly influence snowfall distribution. A faster eastward progression will shift the primary deformation zone east of the Missouri River, while a slower progression would allow a longer residence time under the heavier snow farther west into eastern Nebraska. QPF is generally expected to remain under 0.25" with the highest values wrapping from northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Model soundings exhibit a healthy saturated area in DGZ, bringing SLR's in the deformation zone to an estimated 15-20:1. Current expectations favor the highest snowfall totals across west-central Iowa, where amounts around 2-4 inches appear likely, with totals decreasing towards 1-2 inches westward into eastern Nebraska. Expect small refinements in this distribution through subsequent forecast packages.

In addition to snowfall, strong winds are likely on the backside of the system as a tight surface pressure gradient develops. North- northwesterly wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range appear likely on Sunday (70-90% probability, per the HREF). HREF guidance even brings a 20-30% probability for gusts to exceed 60 mph. These winds will produce blowing snow and visibility concerns, with near-blizzard conditions possible even in areas receiving only 1-2 inches of accumulation. With this in mind, a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for portions of northeast and east-central Nebraska and west- central Iowa from Sunday morning through late Sunday night. A High Wind Watch is also in effect for all eastern Nebraska and western Iowa for Sunday.

Plummeting temperatures through Sunday will leave Monday morning lows in the single digits, with continued gusty winds bringing wind chill temperatures in the 10 to 20 degree below zero range. Additional blowing snow concerns may continue into early Monday before winds finally let up in the afternoon. Highs on Monday will only peak in the 20s for most.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The cooler pattern will be short-lived as broad ridging builds across the western two-thirds of the CONUS by midweek. This will support a gradual warming trend, with temperatures rebounding into the 40s and 50s on Tuesday. A weak disturbance tracking through the northern Plains Tuesday may bring a 15-30% chance of a light rain/snow to the area, though impacts appear minimal.

Any lingering snowpack after Tuesday should melt quickly as temperatures climb well above normal. Highs are expected to reach the 60s and 70s Wednesday through Friday, with portions of east- central Nebraska evening seeing a 20-50% probability of reaching 80 degrees by the end of the work week, according to the NBM.

The warmer pattern is expected to persist beyond midweek as well, with both the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks continuing to favor above-normal temperatures across the region, with probabilities in the 60-80% range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period with any cloud cover at or above FL100. The potential for MVFR ceilings increases at the very end of the period at KOFK. Light east winds as of 10z become southeast while increasing to 12-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt by 15z. The gusty winds continue into Saturday evening with LLWS developing at all three terminal locations. A cold front moves into the area late Saturday night with winds switching to northwest at KOFK and KLNK.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068- 078-088>093. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034-043>045-051>053. IA...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for IAZ043-055-056-069.