textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected today, and again on Friday. Severe weather is unlikely.

- Cooler temperatures in the 70s and low 80s continue into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Today through Friday...

A broad upper trough continued to churn over the northern central plains last night. Spotty showers and thunderstorms waned with the absence of daytime heating, and patchy fog began to develop across low lying areas where cooler air drained. By 2 AM, temperatures dipped into the 60s, with visibilities down to 2 miles or less at a few locations along and east of the Missouri River.

A vort max rotating along the southern periphery of the upper trough will move in from the southwest, bringing another round of showers and storms to the forecast area today. Expect storms to blossom over southeast Nebraska late morning and gradually drift northeastward. Overall storm intensity will likely be a function of instability available from daytime heating/cloud cover. Overall, the best chance for strong to severe storms will likely be off to our east this afternoon and evening, where CAPE is maximized. However, a strong storm or two can't be completely ruled out within our forecast area this afternoon.

A drier air mass will shift into the region this evening, behind the departing vort max. A stray shower or two could linger into Friday morning, but most activity should be out of the area by then. One more surge of shortwave energy looks to shift across northeast Nebraska Friday afternoon and evening, bringing renewed chances for convection. Temperatures will remain relatively pleasant through the end of the workweek. Highs will likely top out in the 70s Thursday and Friday.

Saturday and Beyond...

The upper trough finally ejects into the Great Lakes region by Saturday, with a midlevel thermal ridge building over the western half of the CONUS this weekend. High temperatures will inch back into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Saturday and Sunday. A series of shortwaves will pulse through the northwesterly flow aloft this weekend, brining on again/off again rain chances Saturday through Sunday night.

Latest runs of the global models drop yet another closed low out of the intermountain west, and into the Central Plains next week. If this pans out, we could see another push of cooler temperatures and continued off/on rain chances through the first half of the upcoming week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

VFR conditions are observed at the start of this TAF cycle. Will see fog develop primarily along the Missouri River Valley after 10z. Have refined timing at KOMA and included a TEMPO group from 12 to 14z as brief IFR reductions are possible. Fog may reach KLNK but should see MVFR impacts after 11z. Have continued -SHRA mentions for KOMA and KLNK in the afternoon hours, but expect refinements and adjustments made to timing with subsequent issuances.

Winds will remain under 12 kts throughout the period and generally from the south southwest.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.