textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Powerful winds with gusts of 50 to 65 mph continue into this evening. Snow combined with the winds are resulting in whiteout/blizzard conditions which should come to an end this evening.

- Frigid wind chills expected Sunday night into Monday with values dropping into the -10 to -25 range, especially in northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa.

- Chance (20-30%) for a rain/snow mix Tuesday. Warm up expected through the end of the work-week with highs reaching 80F by Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A powerful mid-latitude cyclone has developed over the Central CONUS this afternoon, generally following the Norwegian Cyclone Model framework for cyclone development. It started as a baroclinic leaf yesterday deepening into a surface low with a well-defined warm front and cold front. As the system passed to our south, we remained north of the warm front with the warm- conveyor belt providing isentropic ascent across our area early this morning. This caused the light rain showers we saw across much of the area through around 8 AM. We even saw some weak elevated instability generate a few isolated lightning strikes closer to the warm front over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Going into this afternoon, we currently see that the mid- level circulation continues to lag slightly behind the surface Low, lending to this system not being fully mature just yet as the surface Low is centered over north-central Missouri while water vapor imagery shows the mid-level circulation currently around northeastern Kansas. Because of this, we likely won't see the development of a TROWAL until well after this system is out of our area.

Despite the lack of TROWAL, we do see a frontogenesis band has developed on the northwest side of the mid-level circulation across our area. This band of snow will continue to strengthen and expand through the afternoon, with snow expected to continue to spread eastward into the rest of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. While snow accumulations are expected to remain modest (generally up to 4 inches), strong surface winds from this powerful, deepening surface low will lead to great reductions in visibility creating near-whiteout conditions at times. Winds currently gusting to 40 to 55 mph will likely peak around 55 to 65 mph this afternoon before starting to weaken later this evening. Snow should clear off to the east by 10pm with clearing skies expected toward midnight. Despite clear skies, blowing snow may continue to reduce visibility, especially in more rural areas, into Monday as winds continue to gust to 30 to 35 mph. Winds won't relax significantly until Monday evening.

Now that we've talked about the wind and the snow, let's discuss temperatures. Monday morning is going to be Cold. Due to temperatures dropping into the single digits and winds continuing to be gusty, wind chill is expected to fall to around around 10 below zero across southeast Nebraska down to around 20 to 25 below zero across northeast Nebraska and portions of southwest Iowa. For this reason, we have a Cold Weather Advisory in place for Monday morning for these areas to the north and east that will see wind chill fall to -20 to -25.

Good news for those who are ready for warmer weather. Cold temperatures don't stick around for long. While Tuesday morning will start out fairly chilly (temperatures in the single digits to low teens), we see the strong ridge centered over the Sierra Nevada's expand eastward bringing a warm front through on Tuesday. While temperature will only moderately warm on Tuesday with highs into the 40s, much more significant warming is expected into Wednesday.

Now I must mention that as the warm front moves through on Tuesday, we do see 30-40% chances for precipitation mainly across our northern counties. As this starts Tuesday morning, we may see some light snow transition over to rain by mid-to-late afternoon before it clears out in the evening.

Much warmer temperatures arrive starting Wednesday with highs back in the 60s east to mid 70s closer to central Nebraska. As the ridge remains locked in place to our west, we continue to see warm-air advection continue the warming trend into Thursday and Friday with no precip in sight. Highs appear likely to peak on Friday in the low-to-mid 80s, approaching record territory.

Going into next weekend, we see the break-down of that strong upper-level ridge. As this occurs there is some potential temperatures cool back down toward Sunday-Monday. Still, not seeing any mentionable chances for precipitation through next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A powerful storm system has brought strong winds and snow to the area this morning. We'll continue to see snow expand eastward reducing visibility to IFR/LIFR at the terminals. Winds are out of the north-northwest gusting to 40-45kt, with gusts to 55kt possible through the rest of this afternoon. Snow and low clouds will clear off west to east, clearing out of KOFK around 20-21Z, and KOMA and KLNK around 00-01Z. We'll likely continue to see blowing snow reduce visibility at at least KOFK and KOMA into the evening, where snow totals will be a bit higher than at KLNK. Winds will start to weaken around 03-06Z, allowing visibility to improve. Once visibility improves, expect VFR conditions with only a Few-Sct clouds around FL150-FL250 into Monday morning. Winds will remain out of the north-northwest through the morning, gusting to 30-35kt.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012- 015>018. High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011- 012-015-017-018-031>034-043>045. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-090>093. IA...Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-056. High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056-069- 079-080-090-091. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043- 055-056-069. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ055- 069-079-080-090-091.