textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon/evening as a frontal boundary moves through the region. Large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall possibly resulting in localized flash flooding will be possible with any storms that develop.

- Saturday highs will reach the 90s with a slight cool down on Sunday. Summer-like temperatures return to the forecast Tuesday through Thursday with widespread 90s. A few low 100s cannot be entirely ruled out.

- A pattern shift over the weekend will result in several disturbances moving through the region heading into next week. Daily chances for precipitation are expected for at least a portion of the Omaha CWA each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The forecast period begins with convection exiting the eastern portions of the CWA. An upper trough over the Big Horns of Wyoming will shift east through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. Sfc low pressure will be over southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, and a boundary will be in place, cutting across South Dakota. A few showers and thunderstorms are currently moving eastward across north central Nebraska. A few models show these storms potentially reaching our far northwestern counties overnight.

Heading into Friday morning, isolated shower/storm chances will be limited to northern Nebraska. Expect a return of the heat as temperatures climb into the 80s with a few low 90s. Heading into the afternoon/evening, A frontal boundary will slowly drift southward through the day, possibly kicking off a few showers/storms in the afternoon. MLCAPE values will be around 2500+ J/kg, MUCAPE values also around 2500+ J/kg and lapse rates decent. 0-3km bulk shear will be around 25-35kts with SRH values of 150+ m^2/s^2, possibly closer to 250+ m^2/s^2 near the front. Storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, a few of which may become strong to severe. There is still some uncertainty over whether storms will develop and how strong they could become. Some models are showing storm development along the front while others such as the HRRR are much more pessimistic in getting storms to develop. Any storms that are able to get going will have the potential of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, while precipitable water values will not be quite as high as Thursday, the setup does still give us the potential for some heavy rainfall with any storms that develop, giving us a concern for some localized flash flooding.

Expect a pattern shift heading into the weekend as an amplifying ridge over the Dakotas shifts east over the Great Lakes. Models are showing the potential for a mid-level disturbance over northern Texas to lift northeast through the region, bringing a couple of chances for precipitation to at least a portion of the Omaha CWA. Saturday will be very summer-like with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid-90s. Sunday will be slightly cooler with temperatures in the 80s for most areas and a few low to mid-90s in northeastern Nebraska.

Monday through the end of the forecast period brings several days where expected high temperatures will be in the 90s. A few locations may see triple digits Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. A few disturbances are expected to move across the region Monday through the remainder of the period, bringing daily chances for precipitation to the CWA. Not every location can expect to see precipitation each day and some areas may receive little to no rainfall through this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Patchy dense fog has overspread the area this morning, bringing visibilities down to 1/4 a mile in a few locations. Fog is expected to diminish by 15Z, with MVFR ceilings lifting to VFR around the same time. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of the day, before another round of strong storms and heavy rain develops this evening and overnight. While confidence in the exact timing and location of storms remains low at this time, the best chance for thunder looks to be after 03Z in KOMA and after 00Z in KLNK.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.