textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and freezing drizzle is possible (15-25% chance) Wednesday morning, mainly across northeast Nebraska. Snow totals are expected to remain under 0.50" with a glaze of ice possible.

- Warmer temperatures arrive Thursday into next week, with highs generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s, though a few spots may hit the 60s.

- The prolonged stretch of warmer weather will increase the risk for river ice breakup and the potential for ice jams.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Tonight through Wednesday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict broad mid- to upper-level troughing across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, while ridging continues to build into the western CONUS. With a departing shortwave disturbance exiting to the southeast, very light and patchy flurries and freezing drizzle remain possible this afternoon, primarily along and south of the Interstate-80 corridor, with PoPs generally in the 10-15% range. Limited moisture availability and a modestly dry sub-cloud layer should keep any precipitation light enough to avoid meaningful impacts.

Attention then turns to a shortwave disturbance currently moving into the Front Range, which will progress eastward into the region tonight. This feature will allow a narrow swatch of vorticity to move across the area Wednesday morning, bringing the next opportunity for light precipitation. Current guidance suggests a southwest-to-northeast oriented band of precipitation will enter northeast Nebraska early Wednesday morning, with PoPs peaking in the 15-25% range due to the low QPF and spotty coverage of expected precipitation.

Precipitation type will be somewhat uncertain. Model soundings initially support light snow before saturation aloft decreases, transitioning profiles toward light freezing drizzle as the lowest 1- 2 km remain saturated. The precipitation band is expected to move through quickly and remain spotty in nature, with snowfall totals likely remaining under one-half inch and only a light glaze of ice possible. Despite the minimal expected accumulations, localized slick spots may develop, particularly across northeast Nebraska during the morning commute period. Precipitation coverage is expected to decrease as the band shifts southeast along and south of the Interstate 80 corridor and surface high pressure pushes in. Any lingering snow or ice should diminish relatively quickly through the day as temperatures warm, with afternoon highs forecast to reach the mid 30s to low 40s.

Thursday and Beyond...

From Thursday into the weekend, upper-level ridging will support temperatures warming to above seasonal norms. Thursday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with highs reaching the 50s for most locations and the low 60s possible across portions of east- central Nebraska. The warm afternoon will be coupled with northwesterly winds gusts of 20-30 mph. An amplifying trough moving into the Great Lakes region will push a cold front through the area early Friday. Current guidance suggests the frontal passage will remain dry. The post-frontal airmass will drop highs into the mid 40s to mid 50s on Friday, still well above average. Enhanced CAA behind the front will also bring north-northwesterly wind gusts of 20-30+ mph through the morning and early afternoon.

Temperatures through the weekend and into early next week are expected to remain mild, generally ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s, which is approximately 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. The primary concern through this period will be the potential for ice jams as the prolonged warmer temperatures promote continued weakening and breakup of river ice across the region. Precipitation chances are expected to return by the middle of next week as an upper-level trough displaces the ridge pattern. Long- range guidance continues to show considerable variability regarding the evolution of this pattern change, resulting in low confidence in the timing and placement of precipitation during this extended timeframe. Regardless, the warmer temperatures are expected to persist. The CPC's 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks continues to indicate a 60-80% probability of above-normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

MVFR conditions are expected overnight into Wednesday morning at the terminals. Ceilings are expected to lower a bit heading into daybreak as some weak showers or light freezing drizzle moves in shortly before daybreak. For KOFK, the best chance for freezing drizzle would be between 11-16Z, KOMA between 13-16Z and KLNK between 11-17Z. Little to no accumulation is expected. Heading into late morning, the system will move out, with ceilings improving to VFR by 19Z at KOFK and 21Z at KOMA/KLNK.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.