textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A decaying line of storms may bring gusty winds to portions of the area early Tuesday morning. Severe storms with damaging winds are unlikely, but not impossible (5% chance).

- Hot and humid Tuesday with heat indices of 100-107 in many locations. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the area.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue throughout much of the week into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible at times, including on Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

There were a couple areas of thunderstorms of note this evening. The first was across eastern KS in vicinity of a shortwave trough in the area. These storms will remain to our south and continue diving southeast along the instability gradient and on the nose of moisture transport in that area. However, some 50 mph gusts were being reported in southeast NE as some light showers on the northern periphery of these storms were moving through. Meanwhile, a second shortwave trough was pushing across northeast CO and western NE, with associated severe storms through much of those areas. A few pieces of afternoon guidance (i.e. several runs of the HRRR) suggested those storms continue eastward across NE and enter the forecast area by 4 AM, bringing strong to severe winds and maybe a little hail to the area. However, most newer guidance this evening tends to taper it off quite a bit before it gets here, with very little, if any rain even falling in the area. Now, looking at the environment ahead of the storms, SPC mesoanalysis shows 1500-2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE with plenty of strong deep layer/effective shear for storm organization. However, 0-3 km shear is notably weak (10-15 kts) and will be line parallel, so tend to think it will gust out prior to arriving with maybe just brief gusty winds in our area (30 mph or so). Furthermore, low level moisture transport should be choked off by the storms to our south, giving us that much less forcing. So in the end, think it may hold together a little longer than some guidance says given the aforementioned instability and deep layer shear in place, but thinking it will be pretty outflow dominant by the time it reaches us and severe winds will be unlikely by then. We'll say a 5% chance of severe storms for us.

For Tuesday, upper level ridging will build in during the day and should lead to temporary quiet, but hot and humid weather. The one thing to keep an eye on regarding the heat is if there's any lingering debris clouds from any overnight/morning storms that keep us a little cooler. Latest guidance has trended a degree or two lower for high temperatures, but still looking at temperatures in the lower to mid 90s with dewpoints climbing into the 70s. This will yield heat indices at or above 105 in many locations and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of the area. Given the hot, humid airmass in place, there will be plenty of instability for a severe weather threat. However, most solutions keep us capped through the afternoon with the primary severe weather threat holding off until the evening hours when a shortwave trough passes through, mostly to our west, and a line of strong to severe storms clips northeast NE. However, there are a few pieces of guidance that do suggest some storm development by late afternoon in our area (e.g. 09.00Z RRFS A). If this occurs, shear profiles would suggest potential for supercells capable of all hazards.

Wednesday will remain warm, but most of those 70s dewpoints should push off to the east, leaving us with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to right around 100 for a few spots. A cold front will also push through and could lead to additional strong to severe storm chances Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Upper level troughing will build in behind the cold front with temperatures on Thursday falling into the lower to mid 80s. The trough then flattens out, leaving us under zonal flow through the weekend. Surface high pressure should keep us dry on Friday, but additional frontal passages and bits of shortwave energy will start sliding through Saturday into next week while a larger scale trough digs into the area Sunday into Monday. This will also bring some cooler weather with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will increase out of the south today, reaching speeds of 15 to 20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts. A few spotty showers and storms could develop this afternoon. A better chance for storms will move through the region this evening and overnight. The best chance for a strong to severe storms currently looks to be between 00-06Z, with the greatest risk near the KOFK area.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015-017-018-031>034-042>045- 050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.