textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Impactful snow is expected tonight into Tuesday morning with 2-4" accumulations likely (70-80% chance) within a narrow band. Localized 6" amounts are possible (20-40% chance). Expect some area roads to become slippery/snow-covered, slowing the Tuesday morning commute.

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and storm chances from Wednesday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Remainder of this afternoon through Tuesday:

A very narrow band of light rain is being observed as of early afternoon across portions of far northeast NE and west-central IA, driven largely by the response to frontogenesis in the 850-700-mb layer, per objective analysis. Latest CAM data suggest that band will drift southeast this afternoon into evening with only light precipitation amounts expected.

By late this evening into the overnight hours, the models indicate the broadening and intensification of the existing precipitation band, owing to strengthening frontogenetical forcing and decreasing static stability. Initial precipitation type would be rain, which then mixes with snow before changing over to all snow overnight. Uncertainty still exists in the exact placement of the two to three county-wide band with the current best guess of a centerline extending from Atlantic, IA to Blair to West Point.

The overall setup is rather impressive, featuring a deep layer of saturation and upward vertical motion that extends into the dentritic-growth zone. Moreover, there are indications of weak convective instability atop of the mesoscale updraft, which would enhance snowfall rates. A few lightning strikes are even possible. In fact, the 12z run of the HREF indicates a several- hour period between about 1 AM and 5 AM where there is a 50-70% chance localized snow rates of at least 1"/hr. In regard to amounts, this forecast update will increase totals to 2-4" within the center of the band (70-80% chance) with localized amounts of up to 6" appearing possible (20-40% chance).

Given the uncertainty in exactly where the snow band will setup, we have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for a broader area from 10 PM tonight until 1 PM Tuesday. If confidence increases in the snowband location, and that some higher end amounts (6-8") are likely, then an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning would be considered for a smaller area. The main impact will be to roads, which are expected to become slippery/snow-covered in areas of the highest snow rates. Plan for slower commute times Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s on Tuesday in areas that receive the higher snowfall amounts with 40s and 50s expected elsewhere.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night:

A vigorous, mid/upper-level low will move along the U.S./Canadian border this period with an associated cold front moving into the area Wednesday before stalling. Warm advection and moisture transport occurring along a 50+ mph low-level jet will result in weak air mass destabilization within the pre-frontal warm sector. Those processes will support increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm chances, especially Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night (maximum PoPs of 40-60%).

Some downward mixing of the low-level just will lead to windy conditions Wednesday with gusts up to 35 mph. It now appears that the atmosphere may end up a little more moist with more cloud cover, limiting fire danger to the high category in northeast NE. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s.

Thursday and Friday:

The global models continue to indicate a low-amplitude disturbance moving through the northern Plains Thursday into Thursday night. The glancing influence of that feature coupled with strengthening low- level convergence and warm advection along to the north of the frontal system stalled across the area will result in a good chance (40-80% PoPs) of showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across the southern half of the area.

There is some model signal that the front may be temporarily be pushed south of the area on Friday. The current forecast will maintain 20-50% PoPs.

Highs in the 50s and 60s are forecast both days.

Saturday and Sunday:

The ensemble and deterministic models all indicate the movement of a large-scale trough onto the West Coast this period; however, there are considerable differences in the structure of the broader trough, and the movement of embedded vorticity maxima. Despite these differences, surface lee troughing is expected to deepen along the High Plains, which in turn will enhance the poleward flux of increasing moisture content through the Great Plains. The moisture return will contribute to an unstable air mass, which combined with forcing for ascent associated with any weak disturbances ejecting out of the western U.S. trough, will support continued shower and thunderstorm chances. The various machine-learning models indicate some severe weather potential (5-10% chance) at this time.

Temperatures are expected to trend warmer with highs in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Main concern remains timing and placement of snow band late this evening and into Tuesday morning. Could see a brief mix of rain and snow before it switches over to all snow with IFR to LIFR conditions expected in the heaviest snow. Did introduce mention at LNK with guidance trending toward at least some light snow clipping them, but currently only expecting restrictions via ceilings. Totals are expected to be around 1-2" at OFK and 3-4" at OMA, but it would take much of a shift of the heaviest band to see 4+ at OMA. As snow is falling, expect winds to be out of the east to northeast around 10-12 kts and once snow ends around 12-14Z, winds will become southeasterly, gusting 20-25 kts through the remainder of the period. Some guidance hints at lingering fog/drizzle following the snow, but confidence in that occurring remains low. If it does, could see lingering visibility of 3-5SM.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ033-034-044-045-051>053. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ055-056-069-079-080.