textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds are expected on Wednesday, with morning southerly winds shifting to northwesterly as a cold front pushes through. Winds gusts may reach 40-50 mph, with a wind advisory in place for portions of northeast Nebraska.

- Very high fire danger will exist across northeast Nebraska on Wednesday as warm, dry and windy conditions prevail.

- Widespread precipitation chances return on Saturday, with a few strong to severe storms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A developing trough will dig into the northern Plains towards the Great Lakes region tonight into Wednesday. Ahead of this feature, strong cyclogenesis is taking shape over the Dakotas before shifting southeast into Nebraska. Ahead of this, a strong low-level jet brings gusty southerly winds to the area with the strongest gusts over southeast Nebraska. A wind advisory is in effect through the morning hours for this region. On the nose of the low-level jet, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. The current expectation is that most of the showers and thunderstorms will remain focused over South Dakota and west- central Iowa. That said, a glancing shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out for our areas along and east of the Missouri River. Temperatures remain mild through the morning with the strong southerly winds keeping temperatures in the 60s to near 70.

A potent mid-level jet streak will begin to rapidly strengthen and push the low pressure off to the east during the morning hours. This will act to quickly push a strong cold front through the region. Hot, dry, and windy conditions fill in behind the cold front by Wednesday afternoon. Widespread gusty northwest winds are anticipated with 40-50 mph gusts likely. The strongest winds should be focused over northeast Nebraska where a wind advisory is in effect through the afternoon. On top of this, very low relative humidity in the 20-25% range overspreads much of eastern Nebraska. While much of the area is green, a few drier areas remain over portions of northeast Nebraska closest to the South Dakota border. Very high fire danger is anticipated as a result, but borderline fuel conditions preclude a Red Flag Warning at this time. Otherwise, expect temperatures well into the 80s to near 90 despite the front.

Thankfully, this system remains progressive with cooler temperatures and lighter winds beginning to move in by Wednesday night. Light winds, mostly sunny skies, and temperatures in the 70s to near 80 will be a welcomed return to the area on Thursday. Enjoy this while you can as more active weather remains on the horizon beyond this point. As the overall pattern transitions towards a more progressive orientation, rain chances remain in the forecast. Currently, a trough is expected to dig into the southern Plains on Saturday. Ahead of this, warmer temperatures and thunderstorms are anticipated. Friday may see more limited coverage, but widespread rainfall is forecast for Saturday. Currently, at least some threat of severe weather and flash flooding is anticipated based on latest forecast model guidance. Beyond Saturday, continued active weather is expected with rain chances at times.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast period. LLWS kicks in this morning, persisting through sunrise. A cold front moves through the region today, bringing winds shifting to the northwest with gusts to 35-40kts.

KOFK: A few light showers may move into the vicinity of the terminal through 09Z. Confidence in coverage is low, so this was omitted from prevailing conditions.

KOMA: Showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible between 09Z and 11Z as a system moves across northeastern Nebraska and northwestern Iowa.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ068- 089>093. IA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM CDT this morning for IAZ090- 091.