textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog have stuck around this morning across western Iowa, with additional chances for fog in Iowa tonight.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures through Saturday with record or near-record high temperatures possible, before much colder temperatures arrive on Sunday and Monday. - Light snow (30%) and breezy winds gusting to 30-40 mph (85%) are forecast for Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning features continued troughing over the Pacific Coast that is lobbing shortwaves northeastward across what is now a minor ridge across the central CONUS with falling heights into the Great Lakes and points eastward. Nighttime RGB imagery continues to show the erosion of low clouds and fog that made for a dreary holiday, with some redevelopment of dense fog as temperatures fall underneath clear skies amid humid conditions. Short-term models indicate that the western edge of the stratus/fog will slow it's progression eastward, stopping just to the east of the Nebraska/Iowa border, and sticking around that area into the day. Some areas of northeast Nebraska may see that redevelopment linger through around noon, though confidence is not high on how far across northeast Nebraska any redevelopment could spread. Regardless, it'll be good for anyone heading north or east to give yourself some extra time to visit relatives this morning, with lingering areas of fog becoming scarce this afternoon. Highs are forecast to hit the upper 40s in dreary areas while 50s and even 60s are set closer to central Nebraska. Overnight, a lingering boundary/frontal zone will aid in quieting winds and aiding in fog formation, with much of western Iowa looking to be foggy heading into Saturday.

By Saturday morning, we'll be once again trying to work away the overnight fog, with generally warmer temperatures forecast and stronger winds entering western Iowa and far eastern Nebraska out of the south. Models are quite split as far as how saturated the lowest 2 km of the atmosphere will be, with some form of cloud cover limiting us from how warm we could get if given full sun. Those gust speeds are expected to be in the 25-30 mph range, peaking around noon before dropping off quickly by 6 PM as a new airmass shakes up our recent warmth.

Sunday and Beyond:

By Sunday, mid/upper troughing that had been anchored along the Pacific Coast is forecast to have broken free, transition across the Interior West, and enter the Central/Northern Great Plains. As it does so, with will undergo substantial deepening before ejecting eastward early this upcoming work week. Strong winds, cold air, and chances for minor amounts of snow/ice are the main sticking points for us, while meaningful precipitation amounts miss us to the east. This system will drag a cold front through the area early SUnday, tanking temperatures and making the high temperature closer to 12 AM. As the front passes through, steep lapse rates will develop in the boundary layer, making flurries isolated freezing drizzle possible across northeast Nebraska. Legitimate snow chances develop between 6 AM and noon, with winds on the increase across the area as strong northwesterly are ushered in behind the cold front.

South of the snow chances, limited upper saturation will make ice chances migrate from northeast Nebraska into southeast Nebraska and Iowa. Any potential freezing drizzle that could fall would be an instant pain as strong winds could make for efficient ice accretion, even though liquid amounts would struggle to increase beyond 0.01". The better shot for accumulation continues to be with snow across northeast Nebraska, which would only reach 0.5", but be enough to catch travelers off-guard as they head to family gatherings. Putting a number to the winds, current model soundings suggest that 30-40 mph will be the norm with areas of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa seeing gusts as high as 45 mph between noon and 5 PM. Those speeds will make the temperatures that will have fallen into the 20s feel more like 5 to 10 degrees, with sub- zero wind chills forecast overnight.

Monday's temperatures will be rock bottom for the forecast period, with morning lows in the 5-12 degree range improving into the 20s alongside less gusty winds, before dipping back below 15 overnight. The positive news is that we rebound into the 40s Tuesday with subsequent highs through the week losing a degree or two a day. This should make for an easier transition into the proper winter temperatures than our recent wild swings from bitter cold into warmth and back. As far as precipitation chances go, we'll find ourselves in northwesterly flow with ridging positioned over the Interior West, with a weak clipper system late Wednesday being our next chance to see anything, and even that currently misses us to the northwest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Widespread areas of fog/low clouds have generally pushed to the east of KOMA, leaving KOFK and KLNK VFR through the TAF period. KOMA on the other hand, is seeing patchy IFR to LIFR visibilities that will linger into the first hour or two of the TAF period, with conditions set to improve over the course of the morning. Winds will shift from the northwest back to being southwesterly, then southeasterly early tomorrow. Additional chances for fog and low clouds will build across western Iowa tonight, with MVFR conditions set for KOMA starting 06z, with potential for lower conditions if guidance trends towards more widespread fog.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for IAZ043-056-080-091.