textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Light echoes may put down a couple flurries this morning, but no impacts expected.

- Snow expected across northeast Nebraska and western Iowa on Saturday (60-90% chance), with 2-4 inches expected in areas under a Winter Weather Advisory near the South Dakota state line.

- Temperatures turn much colder Friday through Sunday morning before warming again by early next week. Saturday night will be the coldest night, with lows in the single digits above and below 0 and wind chills approaching 20 below in some spots.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Skies are mostly cloudy across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa this morning as a shortwave is triggering a few echoes on radar along a band of enhanced mid-level frontogenesis. Dry air is keeping most of anything from reaching the ground, soundings would indicate either sleet pellets or flurries if anything does reach the ground. Shouldn't be enough to impact anything though. Clouds will hang around through the day today with another push of colder air out of Canada moves in keeping highs in the mid 20s north to mid 30s south across our area.

Another, more dynamic shortwave will bring snow chances to the area on Saturday, with best chances for 2-4 inches of snow across far northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa, where we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory. Models have trended farther north with the snow band, and I expect the gradient of snow-to- no- snow to continue to tighten as we approach the event. This is going to be a really tricky forecast on the southern edge of this band as there will likely be an area that sees a sharp cutoff of 2 inches of snow down to little-to- nothing. For now I anticipate this cut-off to be somewhere around a line from Oakland, IA to Fort Calhoun, to Scribner, and Orchard. Areas south of this line may see a dusting or less of snow.

A push of even colder air will move in behind this clipper system with temperatures on Friday peaking in the single digits to mid teens across the area. Though winds won't be strong, it will be breezy making it feel even colder. Temperatures will drop into the single digits to around -10 by Sunday morning before temperatures start to rebound. While it won't be much warmer on Sunday, we do start to see the ridge over the Inter- Mountain West start to shift eastward which will trigger the significant warming trend going into next week.

With the ridge expanding eastward into the Central Plains, expect temperatures to rapidly rebound next week with high temperatures back in the 40s to near 50 degrees on Monday, and mid 40s to upper 50s on Tuesday. Coldest areas will be where a snowpack is in place across far northeast Nebraska and western Iowa, while areas closer to central Nebraska approach 60 degrees on Tuesday. Sounds like a great day to find a reason to visit our friends in Hastings.

The ridge flattens out as flow becomes more zonal across the CONUS by midweek next week, keeping milder conditions in place through the end of the week. Good news for those of us who hate the cold, it looks like we're finally kicking to the curb the arctic air mass that's been keeping us cold since Thanksgiving. CPC is forecasting above normal temperatures in the extended 8-14 day outlook, which would keep us generally on the mild-side of normal through Christmas. Though this doesn't completely rule out a white Christmas, it does make it look less likely. We'll have to see how the pattern evolves.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

MVFR cigs are spreading south across the area this morning. Expect MVFR cigs through the morning hours with cigs lifting to VFR (70% chance) this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the north. We'll see cigs fall again tonight as snow spreads into northeast Nebraska, moving into KOFK around 04Z, and KOMA around 06-08Z. Snow should be lighter and more intermittent at KOMA, so left vis a bit higher than KOFK. Snow should stay north of KLNK, but we still should see MVFR cigs make it into KLNK later in the TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday for NEZ011-012-015. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday for IAZ043.