textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms gradually taper off early this morning.

- Warm Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Strong to severe storm chances expected for the afternoon (30%) and evening hours, with more storms possible in the late evening and overnight (60-80%).

- Continued threat for severe storms Sunday and Monday with all hazards possible.

- Temperatures cool down for Tuesday through Thursday in the 60s and 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

For Monday, severe potential will continue over a large portion of the forecast area. Similar to previous days, another shortwave ejects towards the Central Plains, inducing lee sfc cyclogenesis with a boundary extending through the forecast area. Strong bulk shear of 50 to 60 kts combined with an abundant amount of sfc based CAPE will lead to this continued threat. Similar to Sunday, all hazards will be on the table in addition to a continued flash flood threat.

Quiet conditions are forecast for the rest of the long term forecast period with temperatures generally in the 60s and 70s. Thursday may see our far northwest counties being clipped by some 20% PoPs but most remain dry. Expect a warming trend to take place by Friday and thereafter as indicated by the latest CPC outlooks.

Generally quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the extended with cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions will hold through the early half of the TAF period, with ongoing storm and shower activity to continue dissipating and shifting eastward. Winds overnight will be largely out of the northeast, with speeds expected to slow below 10 kts by 06z. By late morning or just around noon, wind directions will be crossing back easterly, then east-southeast with increasing winds into the afternoon. Gust speeds at KOFK will be highest between 20-25 kts, while KOMA and KLNK reach near 20 kts. Another round of storms is set to develop around to just after 00z tomorrow evening, moving into KOFK and KLNK from the west while KOMA sees them pop up more so overhead before the activity moves southeast. Additional showers and storms are possible into the overnight hours after 06z as wind speeds slowly increase, but the TAFs will focus on the higher odds activity beforehand due to greater confidence in their timing/location.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.