textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Very high to extreme fire danger is expected Thursday, with southwest winds becoming northwesterly to northerly and gusting 35 to 45 mph. A Red Flag Warning has been issued near the Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Very high to extreme fire danger will persist through the weekend and will be particularly high on Saturday.

- Cooler on Friday with highs in the 50s. 60s return Saturday, followed by 70s and 80s into early next week.

- Precipitation chances will increase by the early to middle part of next week, with a 40-60% chance by Wednesday/Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Pretty quiet across the region this evening as we remained on the eastern periphery of upper level ridging. A surface front/wind shift passed through the area today and will push back northward overnight with strengthening southerly flow and increasing warm air/moisture advection through Thursday morning. This will be ahead of a cold front currently over WY/MT and the Dakotas that will crash south through the area by mid- afternoon. This will lead to a tricky high temperature and RH/wind with some fairly large implications on fire weather. Currently, temperatures near and south of I-80 are favored to top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s prior to the front moving through, while areas to the north will see cold air start to spill in earlier and temperatures topping out in the 60s to mid 70s falling through the afternoon. RH also looks to drop toward the mid 20s in southeast NE. Regarding winds, expect 25-30 mph gusts out of the southwest ahead of the front, followed by a little bit of a lull near the front, and then a punch of 35-40 mph gusts out of the northwest to north behind the front, with model soundings showing 40+ kts in the mixed layer. Regarding Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning, the lowest RH does not look to overlap with the strongest winds for very long, if at all, but the potential for 40 mph gusts behind the front into the evening, plus just the wind shift in general do yield fire weather concerns, so elected to convert most of the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and extend the time through 10 PM.

Otherwise, CAMs do show light returns along and behind the cold front as it passes through on Thursday, though model soundings show very dry air to overcome, so not expecting much more than sprinkles through the afternoon. Another bit of shortwave energy then looks to slide through overnight with CAMs once again suggesting some light radar returns, though the dry air will still very much be in place, so again, not expecting any meaningful precipitation.

Dry and cool northerly winds will persist on Friday, with highs in the lower to mid 50s (pretty close to average for this time of year). Gusts of 20-30 mph combined with RH values in the teens to lower 20s will lead to another day of increased fire danger, though winds don't look to quite reach Red Flag criteria at this point as surface high pressure moves in and the gradient relaxes. However, that high will push off to our southeast by early Saturday morning with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of surface low pressure east of the Rockies leading to strong southerly flow returning to the area. EPS mean wind gusts are in the 30-40 mph range with RH looking to fall into the teens area-wide while temperatures climb into the 60s. As a result, expect widespread very high to extreme fire danger, and we'll very likely need a Fire Weather Watch and eventually a Red Flag Warning for most of, if not the entire area.

The southerly flow will continue into Sunday with temperatures climbing back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Increased fire danger will persist, though with the surface low edging eastward, the pressure gradient will relax a bit, so winds are looking to be more in the 20-25 mph range.

The warmer weather should stick around into at least the early part of next week, though a pattern shift looks to be on the table with some increased precipitation chances as the upper level ridge axis passes to our east leaving us under southwesterly flow aloft. The first chances arrive Monday as the surface low ejects eastward. However, with the dry air still in place, this shouldn't amount to much, with chances in the 20-40% range. By Tuesday night, another shortwave and associated surface low look to pass through the region, dragging another cold front through the area with additional rain chances. By Wednesday/Thursday, guidance is in decent agreement showing a stronger system with more widespread and heavier precipitation somewhere in the central portion of the country, though still quite a few differences on timing and track. Right now, chances for us sit in the 40-60% range. It also appears at least part of the area could be cold enough for some snow if that system tracks through the area, though still a lot of time to figure out details on that one.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. Low-level wind shear will work into all three terminals overnight as 45 kt southwesterly winds move in at FL015 before diminishing by 26/13-14Z.

Calm southwesterly winds will prevail overnight before a cold front pushes southward across the area Thursday morning. Winds will quickly veer to northerly and increase in speed behind the front. Wind gusts are expected to increase into the 25-33 kt range through the remainder of the period. Mid-level cloud cover will also increase behind the front.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ088>093. IA...None.