textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitter cold this morning with lows of -10 to 5 and wind chills approaching -20 in portions of northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa.

- Warmer week ahead with highs in the 30s and 40s Monday and 40s and 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Windy Thursday with most of the area expected to see gusts of at least 30 mph out of the west/northwest (60-90% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 404 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

It's bitter cold outside this morning with temperatures ranging from -6 to +6 degrees and wind chill down to -15. Clear skies and relatively calm winds have allowed temperatures to plummet this morning, with temperatures forecast to drop a few more degrees before daybreak.

Models show an arctic High that has dropped south over the Great Plains leading to the frigid cold air in place. Good news for those who hate cold, we'll see the Ridge that has been locked over the Rockies for the past week or so finally start to push eastward, kicking this arctic air off to the east. While today will still be chilly with highs in the mid-teens to mid-20s, we'll see a significant warm-up on Monday with highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This warming trend continues into Tuesday as a strong jet streak pushing into the PacNW starts to break down the ridge across the central CONUS and allow for a weak trough to slip down into the Northern Plains. While we only get a glancing blow from this system, we will see winds shift to northwesterly Tuesday night.

The next system is going to our next system of note, really being the only significant thing to talk about over the next week. A more substantial trough drops south out of Canada developing a strong surface low over Minnesota before it continues over into the Great Lakes region. Ahead of this trough we'll see winds shift back to southerly Wednesday morning and ramp up becoming gusty Wednesday afternoon. With strong warm-air advection ongoing we'll see temperatures warm into the low-to- mid 50s across much of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The southerly winds will pale in comparison to the northerly winds when they arrive Thursday morning as we see strong PVA mix down winds possibly as strong as 50 to 60 kt (~60-70 mph). Right now the GFS and the ECMWF are in really good agreement that the strongest winds will move into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with potential for 50+ mph wind gusts from this system, similar to what we saw last Wednesday.

What will differ from last Wednesday is that this system won't have that Arctic tap to bring in frigid air behind it. Temperatures will cool down going into Thursday, but still be fairly normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the teens to low 20s Friday morning. Going into Friday we'll see a weak shortwave birth a strong low-level jet. This will bring back gusty southerly winds and warmer temperatures for Friday afternoon with highs back approaching 50 degrees. But with the rise, comes the fall as another cold front will move through on Saturday bringing temperatures back down on the cooler but still mild side for the weekend with highs back in the upper 30s to low 40s for Sunday.

Notice I said nothing about precipitation. While there is a very low chance (15% or less) of light rain overnight Wednesday night into Thursday near the South Dakota state line, it's a nominal chance at best with precipitation likely to stay to our north. That's our only "chance" through the next seven days as the pattern looks mainly dry.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period under mostly clear skies. Winds light and generally out of the north this morning will be shifting to southerly over the next hour or two then ramping u p this afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 kt. These gusty winds will likely continue into the evening not weakening until after 06Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.