textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. All severe weather hazards will be possible with any severe thunderstorms. - Cooler air arrives behind a cold front on Friday. Saturday and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below freezing for many locations. Damage to sensitive outdoor vegetation will be possible.

- A gradual warming trend begins on Sunday. Relatively warm, dry, and quiet weather will accompany this until our next potential weather system by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1103 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

After a warm, dry, and windy afternoon on Thursday, rapid moisture return has begun. Dewpoints are already beginning to climb into the 50s and 60s across portions of the area late this evening. This is in response to lee troughing and a strong 40 to 50 kt low-level jet ahead of an approaching trough. This trough is expected to be progressive as it ejects into the Great Plains tonight. A surface low pressure system is expected to rapidly develop to the west and move into our area by Friday morning. A strong cold front will follow this low pressure, pushing a cooler airmass into the region. Latest high-resolution forecast guidance has continued the trend of a faster front. In this event, the cold front will clear all but southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by early afternoon. This in turn lowers the risk of severe weather for our area. Showers and thunderstorms are still aniticpated near the front by early afternoon, but these will quickly exit to the south and east. If any severe thunderstorms can strengthen enough prior to this, all severe hazards will be possible. Elsewhere, cooler and drier weather gradually filters in behind the front. Temperatures by Friday afternoon will range from the low 50s across portions of northeast Nebraska to the low 80s over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa due to the timing of the front. Temperatures will plummet after sunset as cold air advection continues to decrease temperatures heading into Friday night.

By this weekend, the much colder airmass really sets in. Saturday morning temperatures in the 30s are expected with below freezing temperatures for portions of northeast Nebraska. As surface high pressure starts to build in, temperatures may only reach the 50s by Saturday afternoon. The coldest temperatures arrive Sunday morning. This is anticipated due to light winds and clear skies. Sunday morning temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing for many across the area, except portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Thankfully, the surface high pressure moves to our east by Sunday afternoon allowing for the beginning of a warming trend. With the cold temperatures during the morning this weekend, damage to sensitive outdoor plants may be possible.

The first half of next week is marked by warm, dry, and quiet weather across the region. Temperatures climb into the 70s to near 80 across the area by Monday. Due to upper-level ridging, the overall weather pattern is not expected to change until at least the middle of next week. At this time, our next trough will begin to approach the region by Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances are expected to return with this system and another cooldown is likely to follow late next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Gusty south winds continue this evening and tonight across the region. Overnight, a strengthening low-level jet will support LLWS across the region. LLWS is expected to wane around sunrise with an approaching cold front. There is a low chance of MVRF ceilings briefly impacting OMA just prior to sunrise with an advancing warm front. At this time, confidence is low on this scenario and this is reflected in the TAF. Trends will continue to be monitored this evening and tonight. A rapidly progressing cold front moves into the region Friday morning and quickly moves through all terminals during the late morning hours. Winds may briefly shift to southwesterly just ahead of the front before quickly becoming northwesterly behind it. There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms along this front, but it is expected that the majority of this will remain well east of the area. Gusty northwest winds continue into Friday afternoon behind the front.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.