textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional showers and thunderstorms are possible through early Wednesday, with the highest chances (25-50%), across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa tonight.

- Cooler temperatures are expected the next few days, with frost possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings, especially across northeast Nebraska.

- High temperatures will gradually rise back into the 70s by the end of the work week, with additional rain chances (40-70%) Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Tonight and Tuesday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this evening depicts a split-flow pattern as a mid- to upper-level low persists over Ontario while another moves onshore over central California. The aforementioned Ontario low and associated troughing continues to sag southward, pushing a cold front through the area this afternoon. Northerly winds gusting at 25-35 mph have persisted behind the front this evening, gradually tapering off overnight. A secondary front is now pushing southward across the area overnight, bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.

KOAX radar displays rain showers pushing southward across the area and increasing in coverage late this evening as forcing for ascent increases. However, model soundings exhibit a fairly dry sub-cloud layer, keeping a lot of the initial precipitation from reaching the ground. However, the showers may help to transport some gusty winds aloft to the surface, with isolated 40-50 mph gusts possible. Showers are eventually expected to make it to the surface overnight into Tuesday morning, with PoPs peaking at 25-50% for areas generally along of south of Interstate-80. Rainfall totals are expected to peak under 0.20" in this area.

The post-frontal airmass will be felt on Tuesday as afternoon high temperatures peak in the upper 50s and low 60s, about 20 degrees cooler than Monday's highs. A brief lull in precipitation is expected Tuesday afternoon before a shortwave disturbance pivoting across the central and northern Plains brings another round of light rain chances to the area. Once again, there will be some initial low- level dry air to overcome, keeping PoPs limited to 40% generally across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Additional precipitation totals will remain constrained to a few hundredths of an inch.

Wednesday and Beyond...

Generally zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will persist, keeping temperatures cooler initially with a few passing shortwave disturbances bringing periodic light rain chances. The cooler airmass in place will bring the return for frost/freeze potential early both Wednesday and Thursday morning. Overnight lows are expected to be at their coolest Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with portions of northeast Nebraska dropping near freezing, with the exact extent depending on how cloud cover shakes out. The remainder of the area will persist under thicker cloud insulation, keeping lows closer to the upper 30s and low 40s. High temperatures on Wednesday will once again peak in the upper 50s to low 60s. Thursday morning lows are expected in the 30s, with areas nearing freezing towards east-central Nebraska.

Temperatures will gradually warm Thursday through Saturday. Highs are expected in the upper 60s/low 70s Thursday, low to mid 70s Friday and mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Precipitation chances return later Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave disturbance pivots across the area, bringing 40-70% PoPs. The disturbance will also push a weak cold front through the area, dropping Sunday's highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s as precipitation chances taper off through the day. Severe weather potential currently remains low through the period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Scattered showers in the area are expected to remain south of TAF sites, so have remained out of the updated forecasts. Main concern today will be the wind. Very little change in wind direction is expected as winds continue out of the north over the next 24 hours. TAF lines are driven entirely by wind speeds picking up mid-day today at sustained speeds near 10 knots before relaxing again after dark. Have chosen not to include gusts at this point, but they may need to be added in if they are recorded a bit more than anticipated. Gusts of 20 knots are possible.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.