textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Staying cool through the weekend with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s.

- Expect a warming trend next week as temperatures reach the 50s and even low 60s by Wednesday.

- The area will see a period of dry weather through the weekend into beginning of next week, with our next chance of rain being Wednesday (20-30% chance).

- A strong storm system is on track to bring widespread precipitation to the area next Friday into the weekend, but still lots of details to work out on track and timing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Large scale upper level troughing remained in place over the eastern CONUS early this afternoon, with an upper level ridge axis just east of the Rockies, leaving the forecast area under northwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure was centered over southwestern Ontario with ridging extending south into the forecast area. This was leading to quiet and cool weather with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures as of 1 PM were in the lower to mid 40s. Expect another widespread hard freeze tonight with a few pieces of guidance even hinting at some patchy fog development near and east of the Missouri River, where surface winds will remain lighter and incoming high clouds won't quite reach. However, model soundings show winds aloft may stay up just enough to preclude development. If we do end up with any fog, can't rule out some slick spots.

The ridge axis to our west will continue to push east through the weekend combining with southerly low level flow on the back side of the surface high to bring us a very slow but steady warming trend with high temperatures rising 2-3 degrees each day. We'll also stay dry through the weekend. While a shortwave trough currently just off the CA coast will slide east of the Rockies Saturday evening into Sunday, guidance is in very good agreement that associated precip will remain just to our southwest.

The warming trend will continue into next week as upper level ridging amplifies over the central CONUS and southerly low level flow continues to strengthen. Expect widespread 50s by Tuesday with a few spots making a run at 60 by Wednesday. While temperatures will be pretty comfortable, it will also be pretty breezy, with EPS guidance showing 30-40+ mph gusts will be common on at least Tuesday and Wednesday. The winds will also bring a little bit of moisture ahead of a cold front progged to slide through sometime Wednesday into Thursday (still a decent amount of spread in timing in various ensembles). This will bring our next chances for precipitation, though guidance does seem to be trending toward slightly drier solutions with the best moisture only clipping eastern/southeastern portions of the forecast area. For now, chances remain in the 20-30% range.

Meanwhile, guidance is in good agreement that a trough will dig into the western CONUS Thursday with a cutoff low spinning up and ejecting toward the area sometime Friday through next weekend. While this will likely bring widespread precipitation chances to the area, there remains a lot of spread on timing and track of the low's ejection with solutions ranging from precip arriving early Friday to sometime on Sunday. And while rain is very much favored for eastern NE and western IA, there are a few solutions that bring the first snowflakes of the season to at least parts of the area with the low tracking farther south and/or more cold air wrapping in on the back side prior to precip exiting. For now, we'll give that a 10% chance of happening and see how things trend over the next several days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with FEW to SCT clouds around 2000-3000 ft agl this afternoon. Also can't rule out some patchy fog near and east of the Missouri River early Saturday, but think winds aloft will stay strong enough to keep it very patchy if it develops at all (10-20% chance). Winds will remain under 10 kts through much of the period, turning clockwise from northeasterly at OMA and LNK this afternoon, to southeasterly by late this evening. A few gusts nearing 20 kts will be possible late in the period at OFK.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.