textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous cold expected from tonight through Monday morning, with wind chills ranging from the teens below zero to as cold as 35 below zero. The coldest conditions are expected tonight into Friday morning.

- Snow chances (70-100%) return Friday night through Saturday, with the highest totals (2-4+ inches) expected along the Nebraska-Kansas border, tapering off northward.

- Temperatures trend upward early next week, but values will remain below seasonal normals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Tonight and Friday morning:

An arctic front pushed through the area earlier today with upstream temperatures in the single digits above and below zero in eastern SD as of 3 PM. That frigid air mass will overspread our area tonight on the leading edge of broad high pressure building south out of Canada. This forecast update will indicate similar overnight lows to the previous forecast with readings ranging from around zero in far southeast NE to -10 to -12 across our northern counties. The cold temperatures will combine with north winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph to create dangerous wind chills of -20 to -35, and as such, the Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect from midnight until 10 AM Friday. Wind chills of -20 to -25 could linger into early afternoon at some locations.

Latest model data suggest that clouds will increase after midnight, which would limit radiational cooling potential with overnight lows and resultant wind chill readings ending up slightly warmer. However, given the magnitude of low-level cold advection ongoing, we're not confident enough in that scenario to adjust the going forecast.

Friday afternoon through Saturday:

A broad zone of isentropic ascent is forecast to become established across the central Plains, to the north of the surface arctic front positioned over the Deep South. Forcing for ascent within that regime coupled with the glancing influence of a mid-level disturbance passing to our north will result light snow gradually overspreading much of the area Friday night (peak PoPs of 70-100%) before decreasing from north to south on Saturday into Saturday evening.

A cold but dry low-level air mass originating from surface high pressure to our northeast is expected to create a sharp cutoff in snowfall amounts somewhere within the northern half of our area. However, closer to the KS border, model soundings indicate a prolonged period of lift/saturation through a deep layer with thermal profiles favoring dendrite growth. Given the expected 18:1-20:1 snow-to-liquid ratios, the snow could pile up quickly in our southern counties.

As far as snow amounts, the NBM is the most aggressive ensemble system in our area, followed by the EPS. The largest model spread is across the northern half of our area, where it appears the presence of the dry, low-level air is influencing the various solutions (as mentioned above). Both the NBM and LREF GrandEnsemble (EPS, GEFS, and GEPS) indicate an 80-90% chance of at least 2" along the NE-KS border with probabilities of at least 4" ranging from 70-80% (NBM) to around 50% (LREF GrandEnsemble) in the same area. As mentioned above, those exceedance probabilities begin to divergence fairly significantly with northward extend. Our official snowfall forecast will indicate an inch or less across much of northeast NE and west-central IA with generally 0.5-3" along I-80, and 2-5" inches along the KS border.

Winds are expected to remain light Saturday, which will limit the amount of blowing snow. However, reduced visibilities in falling snow and snow-covered roads will lead to travel impacts, especially south of I-80 in eastern Nebraska.

Temperatures will struggle to reach zero across northeast NE into west-central IA Friday afternoon with single digits above zero elsewhere. North to northeast winds will weaken through the day with the "warmest" daytime wind chills of -10 to -15. Cloudiness overnight Friday into Saturday morning will keep lows a bit warmer than tonight/Friday morning with readings in the single digits below zero, and wind chills of -15 to -20. Given the spotty nature of the -20 readings (a requirement for a Cold Weather Advisory) we will not be issuing any additional cold-weather headlines at this time.

Daytime temperatures Saturday will be largely in the single digits above zero with wind chills recovering to the single digits above and below zero.

Saturday night through Monday:

As mentioned above, any lingering slight snow in southeast NE and southwest IA is expected to end Saturday night with the next mid-level disturbance projected to move through the region Sunday night. While no additional snow is expected with that feature, there will be a reinforcing shot of arctic air Sunday night, behind a fast-moving cold front.

We will see slight warming this period (at least during the day) with highs in the single digits and teens Sunday, and teens and 20s Monday. It will remain cold at night with lows of -5 to -10 forecast Monday morning. Associated wind chills of -15 to -25 are expected during that time frame, so additional cold-weather headlines may be necessary.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

Below-normal temperatures are forecast to continue into the middle of next week with dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail for this TAF cycle at all three terminals. Clouds will gradually increase in coverage after 06z but remain around 10,000 ft. Ceilings lower late in the period to 6,000 ft ahead of an approaching storm system. Breezy winds are expected overnight from the north, eventually subsiding by mid to late morning and turning to the north northeast. Could see a 25% chance for some snow at KOFK by 23z, but confidence in impacts still remains low at this time. Better chances for snow arrive after the TAF cycle.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday for NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday for NEZ030-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday for IAZ043. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.