textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Friday morning, with highs generally confined to the 70s.

- The heaviest rainfall is expected Thursday night, with totals approaching 1 to 2 inches in southeast Nebraska.

- Hot and humid weather returns this weekend, with heat index values potentially reaching 105 to 110 degrees by Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Pretty quiet across the area as of 11 PM, with earlier rain having largely dissipated. However, additional showers and storms are still on track to move into portions of the area Thursday morning as another shortwave trough slides through and low level moisture transport points toward the area. Little to no instability will be in place, so thunderstorms chances will be quite low, but any showers that do develop could be somewhat efficient rain producers with precipitable water values climbing over 1.75" near the NE/KS border and warm cloud depths over 4 km. That said, latest guidance has trended toward keeping the heavier precip farther southwest, with only a 10% chance of seeing at least 1" clipping Jefferson County. In fact, now only expecting a few tenths of an inch at most southwest of a line from Albion to Beatrice, with maybe only a few hundredths to the northeast. Despite the downward trend in precip chances, temperatures look to remain on the cooler side, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

While any showers should dissipate through Thursday afternoon, we'll once again see shower and storm redevelopment Thursday evening into early Friday as a stronger shortwave trough moves through with low level moisture transport pointing into southeast NE. Like tonight, trends with the heaviest precipitation have been a little farther south. Elevated precipitable water values (near 2") and warm cloud depths over 4.5 km suggest we'll have some efficient rain producers. In addition, it looks like we'll have maybe a little more instability, at least along the NE/KS border, so could see totals over 1" in that area, with some localized 2+" amounts. We'll have to see how things trend through the day on Thursday. Otherwise, precip will taper off through the day with lingering clouds giving us one more day of highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most.

Heat will then build back in for the weekend and into next week as ridging to our west will amplify and edge eastward. NAEFS and EPS guidance shows 850 mb temperatures climbing into the mid and then upper 20s Saturday and Sunday, good for the 90th+ percentile of climatology. Still some questions on how deep we'll mix with stark differences between EPS and GEFS guidance. GEFS members are almost certainly over-mixed with temperatures well into the 100s area-wide. EPS seems more reasonable with highs in the mid 90s to around 100, but with our tendency to mix a little deeper on anomalously warm days would lean toward slightly higher temperatures than what EPS is showing. In addition, between moisture advection and corn evapotranspiration, dewpoints look to climb back into the 70s and lead to heat indices in at least parts of the area Saturday through Monday. Sunday currently looks like the hottest day, with many locations seeing heat indices of 105 to 110.

All that said, one fly in the ointment on the temperature forecast will be potential for various bits of shortwave energy to round the ridge and slide through the forecast area giving us chances for showers and storms, or at the very least, clouds. Still quite a bit of spread in timing, track, and strength of these disturbances, but currently looking at occasional 10-20% chances, especially in northeast NE into west-central IA Sunday into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions are in place across the terminals this morning, with an area of scattered showers across south-central Nebraska expected to shift eastward over the morning and into the afternoon, decreasing in coverage and intensity while it does so. Winds will increasingly become southeasterly, with speeds of 10-15 kts this afternoon. Expect a break in showers and storms late this afternoon into the evening, before another round arrives late this evening into the early morning hours, with increasing chances for thunder and MVFR ceilings.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.