textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain continues today, mainly along and south of I-80, with the highest chances (30-60%) near the Nebraska/Kansas border. - Temperatures remain well above normal through early next week, with upper 50s to mid 60s through the weekend, to the 70s by Tuesday.

- Very High Fire Danger will be possible Sunday in northeast Nebraska, and span the entire forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- An active weather pattern arrives by the middle of next week. Periodic precipitation chances with cooler, yet still above normal temperatures can be expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1153 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today and Tonight

Light rain pushed into far southeast Nebraska this morning, and struggled to reach the surface as it progressed north. Similarly, light radar returns indicated the development of spotty showers over northeast Nebraska, which yielded little more than a sprinkle making it to the surface, after passing through a layer of dry air.

A blanket of cloud cover kept temperatures mild across the region last night, with lows dipping into the 30s, and a few locations only falling into the 40s. By noon today, most of the forecast area had bounced back into the 50s.

Showers will continue to skirt across the southern half of the forecast area today, as a surface low passes to our south across Kansas. Rain chances will diminish by 6 PM this evening. Patchy fog may develop overnight where rain fell across parts of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Behind the departing low, a subtle upper ridge moves into the the southern plains Sunday, keeping us warm and dry through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Highs on Sunday and Monday are forecast to span the low to mid 60s. Dry conditions prevailing over northeast Nebraska will allow relative humidities to dip to 20-30% in a few locations. Combined with the warm temperatures, this could lead to a region of Very High Fire Danger. Thankfully, winds will remain relatively light, at 5-10 mph and gusting to 20 mph, which should help mitigate some fire weather concerns.

Strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave will bring a surge of even warmer air Tuesday, with the majority of the forecast area expected to reach into the upper 60s and low 70s. Breezier south winds and relative humidities falling to 20 to 40 percent across the majority of the forecast area will bring an even greater risk for Very High to Extreme Fire Danger Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

The previously mentioned shortwave and resulting surface low will pass through the Dakotas Tuesday, potentially resulting in another round of showers, this time passing over the northern half of the forecast area Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Temperatures look to remain warm again Wednesday, reaching into the 60s, with cooler highs in the 50s where showers and cloud cover lingers over northeast Nebraska.

Even drier air will move in behind the departing system Wednesday afternoon. Locations that miss the rainfall will likely see an additional day of Very High Fire danger, where winds gust up to 20- 25 mph and minimum RH bottoms out around 15-25%.

Thursday and Beyond...

Cooler, moist air won't arrive until Thursday and Friday, as the main trough passes through the Central Plains. High temperatures are expected to dip into the 40s and 50s late this week, which is still 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late February. This system will create another surface low with the potential to bring precipitation across the region. Cold air wrapping around the backside of this low could transition rain over to snow Thursday afternoon and into Friday. The best chance for any accumulating snow currently looks to be over far northeast Nebraska Thursday into Friday. However, this far out, model consensus on system strength, location, and timing remains too low to nail down all of the details just yet. Stay tuned to future forecast updates as model agreement increases.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1103 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings have crept into southeast Nebraska, as a disturbance skirts to our south. Expect KOMA and KLNK to waffle between FL008-FL015 until around 20Z, when ceilings eventually scatter out and VFR conditions return. A few showers could skirt KLNK this afternoon, but the better chance for rain looks to remain just south of the TAF site. Winds will remain light and fairly variable today, before becoming predominantly west- northwesterly by 06Z tonight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.