textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening (15% chance of severe for any given storm), with the greatest risk between 2 PM and 8 PM.

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday (30-60%) and Sunday (60-90%).

- Near normal temperatures into next week with on and off shower and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

After a period of dry weather across the region, change is on the horizon. A broad upper-level trough is located over the western third of the United States. Additional shortwaves are rounding this feature and helping drive our changing weather tonight. In response to the aforementioned troughs, strong lee troughing is ongoing across the Great Plains. South winds are rapidly bringing rich gulf moisture north with dewpoints already in the 50s to near 60 for many. To our west over north-central Nebraska, a developing front and a broken line of strong thunderstorms are ongoing. These thunderstorms will approach eastern Nebraska during the morning hours. By this time, decaying showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder are anticipated. Related to the increasing moisture, low-clouds are overspreading the area. The low clouds and increasing moisture keep it mild overnight with temperatures that remain largely in the 60s.

The latest convective allowing guidance has trended further east compared to previous forecasts. This trend is likely influenced by low clouds hanging on through the early afternoon over a large portion of the area. As a result temperatures may struggle to heat through the 70s into the low 80s. Based on the latest trends, by mid-afternoon thunderstorms should develop along the cold front along a line from approximately Harlan, IA to Omaha, NE to Beatrice, NE. Any thunderstorms are likely to become strong to severe quickly with moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms. Should any severe thunderstorms develop, the initial hazard is expected to be large hail. Continued thunderstorm develop along the cold front is expected, forming a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms rather quickly. As the mode transitions from scattered thunderstorms to a mostly solid line, the hazard shifts towards damaging winds. There remains a threat of a tornado or two, but confidence is lower in this scenario. Low- level wind shear is likely to be a bit lacking. That said, storm interactions could help overcome this in isolated circumstances. Thunderstorms will begin to push east of the area late in the evening as the cold front pushes through the region. Thursday night will be quiet as a result.

Friday begins a trend of cooler, near-normal temperatures in the forecast. The morning should start in the upper 30s and 40s before gradually warming into the middle 60s. Friday is expected to be dry, but the broad trough over the western third of the United States remains in place. Our next series of shortwaves approaches the area on Saturday. Temperatures will largely be the same as Friday, but with the addition of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. There is a medium (30-60%) chance of seeing precipitation during this time. As a more potent trough approaches the region on Sunday, a better chances of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated. Widespread precipitation (60-90% chance) will be a welcomed sight. This is aided by an area of low pressure that will track from southwest to northeast across the region during this time. At the movement, the severe weather threat appears low, but this will depend on the exact track of the area of low pressure. Currently, areas near the Kansas-Nebraska border have a 15% chance of severe weather outlooked.

The same pattern from this weekend should hold into next week. Monday sees near-mormal temperatures continue, though a lull in precipitation is currently expected. By Tuesday and Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms should enter the forecast once again as yet another trough approaches the region. It is too early to dive into the finer details, but any additional rain is appreciated at the moment. Temperatures will also continue their run of remaining near normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

KOFK: Ceilings have begun to fall at the terminal this evening. Expect conditions to deteriorate to MVFR levels by 09Z with a few showers moving into the region. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out. Rain/storm chances continue through around 15Z. Winds gradually turn from southerly at the start of the period to westerly by 15Z to northwesterly by 01Z as a cold front moves into the region. Additional chances for thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and evening to the east and southeast of the terminal; however, any additional showers/storms past 15Z are not expected for the terminal.

KOMA: Ceilings will fall to MVFR levels this morning with possible IFR conditions after sunrise as stratus moves into the region. A few showers will be possible in the vicinity of the terminal by 10Z. Additional chances for precipitation come later in the afternoon as a cold front begins moving through the region.

KLNK: Ceilings will lower to MVFR levels as stratus moves into the region. Expect showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm to the northwest of the terminal through around 08Z. Showers and storms will move into the vicinity of the terminal after 08Z with chances for some severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front moves into the region. Winds will transition from southerly to westerly by mid-afternoon, to northwesterly tonight as the front comes through.

Ceilings are beginning to fall as stratus moves into the region.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.