textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will cool into the 30s tonight, with temperatures near-freezing for parts of northeast Nebraska.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring very high to potentially extreme fire danger from Monday through Thursday for portions of the area.

- Our next weather system arrives on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible for much of the area. There is a low (15%) chance of severe storms for portions of area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The large, slow-moving trough that resulted in our cooler weather is finally clearing the area as it continues to translate east from Ontario/Quebec into the Northeast. Concurrently, an upper-level ridge is beginning to build towards the Great Plains. The effects of these changes will begin to be showcased by Monday afternoon. In the meantime, temperatures cool into the 30s across much of the area with near-freezing temperatures for some by Monday morning. With the building ridge, southerly winds return to the region. This helps push temperatures into the middle and upper 70s by Monday afternoon. It will be a dry south wind though, as a result very high fire to locally extreme fire weather is possible, particularly over portions of northeast Nebraska. That being said, Red Flag criteria is not currently expected, but elevated fire weather conditions will occur. The warming trend continues on Tuesday as 80s return to the area. Little change in overall moisture is anticipated, so very high fire danger remains, though light winds should limit these concerns. Our next weather system will begin to approach the region by Wednesday. As a large upper- level trough approaches the Great Plains, strong lee troughing will commence. While increasing moisture will begin to push into the region, it remains warm, relatively dry, and windy with temperatures in the 80s. Near wind-advisory level southerly winds may develop and support continue very high fire danger. Increasing moisture return may help limit this threat though.

Thursday marks the anticipated return of active weather. As a leading shortwave trough ejects out into the Great Plains, it quickly lifts north through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. An area of low pressure will coincide with this feature with a cold front and/or dryline extending southwest into our area. Latest forecast model trends has this front bisecting the area near the Missouri River by Thursday afternoon. Warm, dry, and windy conditions behind the front may support very high to potentially extreme fire danger. Ahead of the front, a warm, moist environment may potentially be supportive of severe weather. At this time there is a low (15%) chance of severe thunderstorms over portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. The cold front is anticipated to push through the area on Friday, bringing cooler and drier weather back into the forecast. While the cooler weather may continue into next weekend, additional shortwave troughs may support additional showers and thunderstorms chances. Overall, early indications are for western CONUS longwave troughing heading into next weekend and potentially lasting into the following week. In this event, expect an active weather pattern across portions of the Great Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions continue at the terminals through the forecast period. Southeast winds persist this morning, becoming southerly after 21Z. Winds will be breezy through the afternoon, sustained around 10-15kts. Expect LLWS to develop after midnight, with better chances of impacts to the terminals after 04Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.