textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of snow will continue to move eastward and dissipate through 5 PM. A few isolated slick spots are possible, but will have low impact to travel.

- Warming trend expected through the weekend with highs in the 80s by Friday and Saturday. Temperature records may be broken Friday and Saturday.

- The heat late this week will also drive low relative humidity values, increasing fire danger across the area. Saturday currently looks to be the hottest and windiest day of the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features swirling high pressure centered over the California Coast, underneath a mid/upper ridge that dumps out into the eastern half of the CONUS behind a departing trough. A broad warm air advection pattern continues its spread across the broader area, located east of a potent downslope/warm front that stretches from southwest Kansas northward into southwest North Dakota. Short-term model data has been under-doing the strength of the lift across the area, where visibilities have fallen to 1-3 miles at times and a trace of snow has fallen. On the back side of the snow, model soundings indicate that some sleet/freezing could take the place of snow as it dissipates for an hour or two, but this so far has not materialized. Overall snowfall chances are at their peak now through 4 PM, making any visibility/road impacts limited to non-existent during rush hour. The warm front to the west will continue pushing eastward into the forecast area, helping temperatures warm substantially as it arrives. Temperatures in the 40s are forecast across much of eastern Nebraska while the NE/IA border and eastward will be in the 30s early this evening before cooling overnight. Some of the HREF members do have lower visibility overnight as well across northeast Nebraska, closer to where the main wind shift and front are, with a 30% chance of it materializing despite strong winds just above the surface.

For tomorrow, warmer air will continue its push into the forecast area, sending temperatures soaring past average temperatures. Highs in the 60s and even 70s will be aided by increasing mid/upper heights as the northerly jet streak departs, being replaces by westerlies that source from the building thermal ridge over the High Plains. Later in the evening, a weak surface low will shoot southeast from the eastern portion of the Dakotas, dragging through a weak front that could result in sprinkles to light rain for extreme eastern Nebraska into Iowa into the overnight hours. Beyond those sprinkles, precipitation will be few and far between, spelling increasing dryness that could compound fire danger later on.

Thursday and Beyond:

The latter half of the forecast period is characterized by the aforementioned ridge to the west flattening out as it moves eastward, with very poor moisture flux into the region. The larger thermal ridge will spread eastward, carrying with it increasingly warm temperatures that we will be able to mix into. As it currently stands, potentially record highs are forecast Friday and Saturday, that could push well into the mid/upper 80s for Saturday before cooling Sunday into next week. Winds will be the thing to watch, as increasing speeds will mean increasing fire danger as the warm temperatures drive low relative humidity. As of now, the strongest winds are expected just ahead of and behind the incoming cold front Saturday into Sunday, where gusts could exceed 30 mph. Area land managers, farmers, and anyone working with sparking equipment will need to exercise an abundance of caution, as any fires that do form will be difficult to contain and fight.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Mid/high-level clouds have increased overnight, and that process will continue today with ceiling heights lowering to FL040-050 by 17-18z before gradually increasing thereafter. There is still a 20-30% chance of a light wintry mix at KOFK, and a 20-30% chance of mainly light snow at KOMA. As mentioned in the previous discussion, confidence in those weather occurrences is currently too low to include in the forecast. Light southeast winds as of 10z will strengthen this morning with sustained speeds of 13-17 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt expected from late morning through this afternoon. Winds diminish this evening with LLWS developing at the terminal locations.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.