textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into eastern Nebraska into Thursday morning. Heavy rainfall will be possible under the strongest storms.

- A more widespread line of thunderstorms is likely to move across the region later on Thursday into Friday morning. Damaging wind will be possible with the initial line of storms, along with heavy rain and small hail.

- Slightly cooler Friday into the weekend, with highs mostly in the lower to mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Fairly quiet across the region late this evening as earlier showers and storms had largely come to an end. However, we do expect storm re-development overnight as shortwave energy over western NE approaches and low-level moisture transport ramps up and points into the area. In addition, we'll have a decent amount of instability (1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE) along with precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches and warm cloud depths over 4.5 km. Therefore, any storms that do develop will be very efficient rain producers, as we saw during the day in parts of the area where we observed 2+ inch per hour rainfall rates. If we get repeated rounds over any areas, localized flooding would be possible, especially in areas that saw rain during the day on Wednesday. Still some questions on how widespread these storms will be, with short term guidance ranging from a few somewhat short-lived spotty showers to a relatively persistent, solid line. On top of that, even run-to- run consistency is somewhat low. All that said, just given the setup with the aforementioned instability, moisture transport, and incoming shortwave energy, tend to lean toward maybe the higher end of shower and storm coverage into Thursday morning, so will maintain the 40- 60% chances.

Attention then turns to how long the precip and cloud-cover lingers into the day on Thursday as guidance is in good agreement of a cold front firing some storms along the NE/SD border by the afternoon and pushing them into northeast NE and eventually across the area during the evening into overnight hours. Should early-day storms and clouds linger longer, obviously the incoming line will have less instability to work with and would be a little weaker, and vice versa. Shear also looks to be somewhat across our area (30-35 kts in the 0-6 km layer and 15-25 kts in the 0-3 km layer), so tend to the line will likely become outflow dominant and weaken as it pushes through. Still, guidance shows pockets of 45-60+ mph winds, especially farther west where 0-3 km shear and instability will be enhanced. Additionally, the environment for efficient rain producing storms will remain in place, so could see some heavy rain and localized flooding, especially if any areas see training storms.

Think the primary severe weather threat should exit our area toward 4-5 AM with perhaps some lingering showers and non-severe storms on the back side of the shortwave and a surface low off to our east. The northwesterly flow and lingering precip/clouds will lead to a cooler day with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

We'll warm back up a bit for the weekend with upper level ridging building back in and surface high pressure dominating to keep us dry. Expect lower to mid 80s on Saturday followed by mid 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and Monday as southerly flow strengthens on the back side of departing high pressure. Our next rain chances look to arrive by Monday night/Tuesday as a large scale trough slides by to our north and a cold front pushes south toward or through the area. Still some spread in various ensemble members on just how far south the front and precip will make it, but currently seeing about 20-40% chance at times through Wednesday night, with model consensus keeping temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Some patchy fog/mist has developed near the KOFK terminal early this morning. Largely expecting this to remain localized but with potential brief drops to MVFR/IFR as has been reported by observations. Have maintained TEMPO groups at KOFK and KLNK for some light showers or thunderstorms affecting those respective terminals. Some uncertainty exists on how far east these showers will track so have left mentions out of KOMA terminal but will continue to assess trends. For the rest of the daytime hours, should see VFR conditions prevail with clouds around 6,000 to 10,000 feet. Southeast winds currently under 10 kts will become gusty in the late morning and afternoon at 20 to 25 kts, switching northwesterly late in the period as a front moves through. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop after 00z, impacting all 3 terminals. Storms could have gusts of 50 to 60 kts, small hail, and heavy rainfall restricting visibilities to MVFR/IFR. Thereafter, could see some MVFR/IFR ceilings move in behind the front.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.