textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory lingers into Monday morning, driven by areas of freezing drizzle and icy road potential across southeast Nebraska.

- Dreary conditions and chances for light rain continue through much of the work week, including a few thunderstorms Thursday.

- Temperatures will gradually return to the 60s and possibly 70s by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow Morning:

Dreary conditions are in place this evening, with Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery showing sub-freezing clouds spreading northward from its thicker coverage across southeast Nebraska. Temperatures underneath the clouds have been holding just above freezing, with very light easterly winds, as weak warm air advection and vorticity advection drive areas of drizzle across northern Kansas. Short-term models indicate that we'll slowly continue cooling into the overnight hours, with cloud bases trending down and a few areas of freezing drizzle developing across southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa. Some of the better guidance that has best depicted ongoing areas of drizzle have been lowered visibilities, which start becoming more widespread after midnight. As it occurs, near to just below freezing temperatures will allow for a light glaze of ice to form, making for slick surfaces. Recent observations of road temperatures hover about a degree above the ambient air values, making the most likely spots to see any slickness being bridges, sidewalks, and other common cold spots. Overnight low temperatures are aiming to fall into the 20s area-wide by 5 AM, rebounding above freezing by 11 AM. A Winter Weather Advisory is out for the areas most likely to see freezing drizzle, covering the southernmost two tiers of counties across southeast Nebraska through 9 AM tomorrow morning. Amounts and coverage so far of any freezing precipitation has been under-performing and/or thwarted by just-above freezing conditions, but the overnight drizzle seems to be enough of a threat to carry forward the low-end advisory into the overnight hours.

Monday and Beyond:

By Monday afternoon, the low clouds will begin lifting as mixing increases slightly and continued southeasterly winds push temperatures up into the 40s. During the evening hours, continued lift in the lower levels and gradual moisture transport will help fill in deep layers of cloud cover -- facilitating old fashioned drizzle into the area. In fact, temperatures at their lowest are not forecast to fall below freezing through the entire work week, simplifying some of the messaging and relieving the area of any potential headaches. As the drizzle fills in Monday evening, expect visibility values to begin dropping for much of the area to below 1 mile at times heading into Tuesday. During the morning hours, we'll find ourselves on the northern edge of continued warm air advection, with marginal lift lasting through much of the day. Light rain seems to be a stretch at this point, while models instead favor continued drizzle and only brief bouts of light, stratiform rain. Despite the dreariness, temperatures trend upwards, topping out in the upper 40s and 50s as lighter, easterly winds continue to hold in place.

Low clouds and areas of drizzle will linger into the morning hours Wednesday, eventually giving way after noon and letting temperatures see another bump into widespread highs in the 50s. Heading into Thursday, we'll find ourselves in between the departing shortwave trough from the previous couple of days and an incoming longwave trough to the west. Temperatures will see a large bump into the upper 60s to just over 70 degrees, the warmest day of the forecast. As of now, gusty winds of 25-30 mph out of the southeast will be the only other forecast detail worth mentioning Thursday, as fire weather will be limited due to dewpoints climbing into the 40s in the absence of any particularly dry airmass. Granted, models do tend to underestimate how dry we can get in the mid-to-long range (especially the NBM), but the drizzle and generally moist conditions for the few days prior will keep overall fire danger in the high to very high category.

During the late evening/overnight hours into Friday, the main wave to the west will arrive and bring our first measurable chance for thunderstorms and an outside shot at hail. There will be a narrow corridor of overlap between the steeper lapse 700-500 mb rates and deeper layer shear, that ends up east of the forecast area by Friday afternoon. Behind it and to the north/northwest of the incoming dry slot, a band of stratiform rain will take a bit longer before scooting to the northeast, primarily affecting northeast Nebraska/northwest of where the main surface low ends up tracking (based on the latest runs of the global models). Going through the weekend, we'll see continued westerly/southwesterly flow and a drier airmass that could spell increasing fire weather concerns that will depend on how gusty winds will get at the surface.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to fall to MVFR over the next few hours from south to north. MVFR ceilings continue to fall to fuel alternate heights by early Monday morning across the area. IFR ceilings are most likely to develop at LNK through the morning hours. IFR ceilings may approach the OMA vicinity, but confidence is low on these ceilings reaching the terminal at this time. Outside of ceilings, there is a low (10-30%) chance of freezing drizzle developing at both LNK and OMA during the early morning hours. With confidence remaining low, have not included this in the TAF forecast at this time. Trends will be monitored if inclusion is needed. By Monday afternoon, ceilings may only improve slightly, climbing to high-end MVFR briefly before quickly falling after sunset Monday evening. IFR to LIFR ceilings are anticipated across the area towards the end of the TAF period with fog or drizzle expected as well. This would also reduce visibility to MVFR or IFR. Temperatures will be above freezing during this time, so no freezing precipitation is forecast at the surface. Winds remain out of the east to southeast through the forecast period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for NEZ078- 088>093. IA...None.