textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread frost is looking less likely tonight, as a shift to southwesterly winds overnight and dry conditions limit widespread chances.

- A low chance (10-15%) of showers is expected Friday morning, limited by dry air.

- High temperatures will gradually rise back into the 70s to low 80s by the end of the work week, with additional rain chances (30-60%) Saturday that favor southeast Nebraska and far southern Iowa.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Today and Tonight:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon does a fine job illustrating the largely depressed mid/upper pattern that continues to shunt most of the country's weather activity to its far east and southeastern-most tiers of states, while a shortwave continues to move southeastward into the Front Range of the Rockies. With Nebraska and Iowa being on the interior side of the mid/upper trough, cooler-than-average highs continue today, topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s as breezy northwesterly winds continue. The main challenge of the short-term forecast remains frost potential overnight, as lows fall to near freezing and winds lighten up. The three things that will discourage frost potential will be southerly winds that increase to 5-10 mph after 1 AM, a lack of surface moisture as dewpoint temperatures range in the low-to-mid 20s, and overnight temperatures that may over just above freezing. With those factors in mind, we are currently going without a Frost Advisory for the overnight hours, with no strong overlap of favorable conditions before winds increase early tomorrow.

Thursday and Beyond:

Stepping forward into Thursday, dry surface conditions and temperatures near climatological normal (which for this time of year is 68-72 degrees). Another wind shift/frontal passage will occur during the afternoon hours as a shortwave scoots through the northwesterly mid/upper flow. As this happens, expect increased cloud cover, but continued dry conditions as low-level dry air proves to be too much for any hopeful rain drops trying to reach the ground. Highs are on tap to reach the low-to-mid 70s Thursday, and will only climb heading into the weekend before topping out Saturday in the upper 70s to just over 80 degrees. Our dry spell will be tested Saturday, where the weakening influence of the broad trough to the north attempts to steer a compact shortwave heading through the northwesterly flow. Latest trends in the global deterministic models has crept the axis of rainfall southward, primarily just north of or along the Nebraska/Kansas border (great for weekend outdoor events, but not great for catching up for lost rainfall). With its passage, we'll see a cooler but near-normal Sunday, with rainfall chances staying away from the forecast area.

Monday into the middle of the upcoming work week has strong support for a building, negatively-tilted ridge over the western third of the CONUS while the eastern third sees shortwaves replacing one another to maintain a trough over that section. Highs will once again surge into the upper 70s and 80s across the forecast area, only being interrupted by weak shortwaves through the work week that will keep us from warming too much before coming back down to near normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle. Broken cumulus at 9,000 ft will eventually dissipate this evening with clear skies expected at all terminals. Winds from the west northwest will become southerly under 12 kts this evening before turning to the west northwest again by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will become gusty at KLNK at 20 to 25 kts by 13z, then subside in the early afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.