textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A decaying MCS will bring shower/storm chances overnight into early Tuesday mainly across western portions of our area.

- A summer-like pattern continues keeping warm and muggy weather in place with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A large complex of storms has developed over Central Nebraska this evening, with a few embedded segments of strong to severe storms. Primary hazards have been strong winds, hail. This stems from a shortwave riding up the western flank of a ridge that is building up over the Missouri River Valley. Out to the west, we have a broad upper-level trough over the Intermountain West amplifying southwesterly flow over Wyoming, Colorado, and the Dakotas.

The shortwave driving the convective complex over central Nebraska will push it east into our area overnight into early Tuesday, weakening and dissipating as it continues east. As it clears out, CAMs show it leaving a remnant MCV in place centered around Boone County, NE. This MCV will trigger new storm development Tuesday afternoon as daytime heating and clearing cloud cover destabilizes the environment. There are some differences in how much we destabilize tomorrow with remnant cloud cover struggling to clear through the afternoon. Portions of our area that clear earlier may see up to 1500J/kg of SBCAPE, while other areas see only 500J/kg or less. If storms can trigger in areas with greater destabilization, we could see a a stronger storm or two develop, but shear is really weak. Any stronger storms shouldn't last too long, but could produce strong winds and/or small hail as it collapses on itself. These storms will dissipate around sunset as they will be diurnally driven.

Late Tuesday we see a shortwave from the Desert Southwest ridge up into the southwesterly flow to our west, merging into the upper-level trough over Montana. This amplifies the Jet Streak over eastern Wyoming and the western Dakotas, keeping evening- overnight convection confined more west Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Even so we could still see a complex ride off this boundary eastward, moving into our area early Wednesday as it weakens and dissipates.

Going into midweek we see that trough over eastern Montana push up into Alberta/Saskatchewan starting to nudge the ridge over the Central Plains further east. This trend will shift the moisture plume east, bringing afternoon/evening storm development east into mainly western portions of our area on Wednesday. With this we'll see 1500-2000J/kg of SBCAPE and a marginal amount of SFC-500mb Bulk Shear of around 35kt, just enough for a few strong to severe storms to be possible. More likely, we see storms similar to what they are seeing to our west today, several disorganized convective complexes develop with potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or hail. These storms then migrate eastward into western Iowa overnight.

Thursday and Friday we see the ridge get shoved farther and farther east, and a stream of southerly flow continuing to stream warm, moist air out of the Gulf up into our area. Thursday we see the ribbon of storms light back up across our area during the afternoon and evening, again with only a marginal potential for severe weather with anything that develops. Friday, we see a shortwave perhaps increase the amount of shear with a weak cold front moving through. This is possibly our best chance for severe storms Friday evening into the overnight hours.

Over the weekend we see a strong amplifying ridge over the Northern Plains up into central Canada, situated north of a trough over Oklahoma and Texas continuing to stream warm, moist air into our region. Daily storm chances continue, giving us much needed seasonal rainfall, though temperatures will be warming into the mid-to-upper 80s each day with heat indices up around 90.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. The primary concern will be a decaying thunderstorm complex pushing in from the west overnight. The main question will be how far the complex makes it before decaying, with the best chances of a few hours of rainshowers and/or thunder being at KOFK and KLNK before it fully decays by 02/14Z. Patchy, brief MVFR conditions and wind gusts (up to 30 kts) will be possible if these thunderstorms hold together. Otherwise, winds will remain calm and out of the south- southeast, increasing to 12-14 kts during the afternoon.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible (30% chance) again between 02/17-23Z. This chance has been left out of the current forecast package due to the low confidence in timing and coverage.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.