textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe storms this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and a tornado or two will be possible.

- There's an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe storms Friday afternoon/evening capable of strong damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and a tornado or two.

- Another round of storms may be possible Saturday evening and night, however it will depend on how storms move through Friday night.

- Hot weather continues with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Heat indicies remain in the mid 90s to around 100.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A few storms finally managed to break through the cap during the early morning hours today, dropping a few swaths of hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain across portions of northeast Nebraska. Cloud cover and spotty showers helped keep temperature relatively cool, similar to yesterday. By noon, temperatures had reached the **upper 70s and low 80s. Dewpoints in the low 70s brought heat indices into the upper 80s and low 90s.

A remnant MCV rolled through eastern Nebraska out of Kansas this morning. While the atmosphere was still a little too worked over from morning convection, a few CAMS hint at the potential for storms to redevelop late this afternoon along a lingering outflow boundary in far southeast Nebraska. While shear will be relatively weak, bountiful instability could lead to the production of large hail and damaging winds.

A better chance for strong to severe storms will move through late this evening and into the overnight hours. Multiple models hint at the development of an MCS over eastern South Dakota that moves southeast across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa tonight. This initial storm may then be followed by an amalgamation of cells moving out of central Nebraska. The initial storms that develop this evening would be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, with a small chance for a tornado or two. Heavy rain could also lead to isolated instances of flooding if storms end up training over the same locations.

Friday...

Once again, convection is expected to linger through the morning hours Friday, bringing subtle relief from the heat. Temperatures will likely once again top out in the upper 80s and low 90s Friday afternoon. Adding in the humidity, it will feel more like the mid 90s to low 100s.

While the forecast may once again become muddled by storm interactions Thursday night/Friday morning, Machine Learning and CAM guidance strongly support additional storm development Friday evening. Convection looks to blossom along another outflow boundary in the vicinity of northeast Nebraska. Large hail, heavy rain, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible. However, the greatest threat looks to be strong damaging winds as the storms eventually meld together into an MCS and surge southeast through early Saturday morning.

Saturday (Independence Day)...

Friday night convection will be the deciding factor in whether or not we can shoot off our own fireworks on Saturday, or if we'll be forced to watch Mother Nature's show. Some models depict storms surging well south of the forecast area Friday night/Saturday morning, clearing the path for a hot but dry 4th. Other solutions depict Friday night's storms giving us a glancing blow as they skirt along the eastern fringes of the forecast area. This would leave us under an unspoiled atmosphere ripe for thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening. Overall trends appear to be leaning toward the first option, pushing storms just south of the forecast area. While I wouldn't cancel fireworks plans just yet, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the forecast if you have holiday plans.

Hydration (with water) will be key for any 4th of July party goers. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s and low 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s up to 100. These temperatures could creep up a little higher if skies clear out behind the early morning storms.

Sunday and Beyond...

Off and on storm chances look to continue through Sunday and into early next week. Unfortunately, the heat also isn't ending any time soon. Afternoon highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, with lows only falling to the upper 60s and low 70s overnight. Additionally, CPC outlooks continue to highlight much of the country leaning above normal for temperatures through mid-July.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period. Winds are expected to become breezy out of the south this afternoon. Another round of storms is expected to develop this evening and overnight. While there remains some uncertainty, the best chance for storms looks to be at KOFK from 03-07Z and KOMA from 07-09Z. A few storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds, large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Spotty weak showers and storms could linger through Friday morning, before another round of severe storms develops Friday evening and overnight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.