textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitter cold tonight with lows of -10 to 5 and wind chills approaching -20 in portions of northeast Nebraska and west- central Iowa.

- Warmer week ahead with highs in the 30s and 40s Monday and 40s and 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Windy Thursday with most of the area expected to see gusts of at least 30 mph out of the west/northwest (60-90% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Snow was starting to taper off early this afternoon as drier air and surface high pressure continued to work in from the north. Model soundings suggest we could still see some flurries heading into early evening with a little saturation in the dendritic growth zone just above the surface, but any accumulating snow should largely be done now. Otherwise, high pressure was also helping to gradually clear the clouds out with winds becoming light. As a result, we're still on track for very cold temperatures tonight into Sunday, with lows ranging from around -10 in northeast NE and west-central IA to around 5 across portions of southeast NE. While the winds will be light, any small puff of wind could lead to wind chills approaching 20 below 0 in the coldest areas. That said, think those readings will be few and far between, so elected to hold off on a Cold Weather Advisory, but regardless, it's going to be cold. A few pieces of guidance do hint at fog development across north- central in northeast NE early Sunday morning. If it does happen, given how cold it's going to be, could see some slick spots develop. However, a vast majority of guidance keeps the low levels dry, so would only give it a 10-20% chance of happening. Otherwise, winds will become southerly on the back side of the departing high during the day Sunday, but we'll still remain cold with temperatures topping out in the teens to mid 20s.

We'll start to see a significant warmup on Monday as upper level ridging starts to nudge in from the west. Expect highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s from east to west across the area. The ridge will flatten out as we get toward mid-week, but the warming trend will continue, as we see mid 40s to mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, with an outside shot at a few locations making a run at 60.

Our next system of interest will arrive Wednesday into Thursday as a cutoff low moves along the ND/Canada border and drags a warm front into the area during the day and a cold front through overnight into early Thursday. Still some questions on exact timing of the various features as well as moisture availability, but trends are toward increasing precip chances in at least northeast NE (20% chance). If we do get anything, consensus would suggest we stay above freezing while any precip falls, so it should all be rain. Behind the cold front, we'll see strong west to northwest winds on Thursday. Still some details to be worked out there, but EPS guidance suggests at least a 60-90% chance of seeing 30 mph gusts across the area and a 50% chance of seeing at least 40 mph gusts, mainly north of I-80. Despite the frontal passage, the warmer weather looks to stick around to end the work week, with highs remaining in the upper 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The lingering snow flurries and MVFR ceilings have quickly eroded this evening leaving clear skies and VFR conditions. Winds remain northerly, but will become light overnight. A return to southerly winds arrives mid-morning, Wind speeds will increase through the afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.