textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A few scattered showers and rumbles of thunder are possible Friday afternoon and evening. An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible Saturday evening into early Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding will be the main concerns.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday into next week as the weather pattern remains unsettled. Temperatures will generally remain mild in the 70s to low 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

After a quiet and beautiful day Thursday afternoon, temperatures will cool into the 50s by Friday morning. The quiet weather will begin to end Friday afternoon and evening. A trough digs south into the central Plains during this time. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop across the area ahead of this feature. The overall chance of rain is low (15-30%) with only light rainfall accumulations anticipated. Temperatures will warm into the 80s with the aid of southwesterly winds and peaks of sun during the day. A relative lull in rain is expected Friday night into Saturday morning as our next trough approaches. Temperatures will start in the 50s to low 60s on Saturday before an active day ahead.

A trough will move from the central Rockies into the central Plains on Saturday. This aids in the development of an area of low pressure over the high plains. At the same time, a stalled frontal boundary will be draped over our area. With time, plentiful gulf moisture streams north into the region as steepening mid-level lapse rates develop overhead. While current timing keeps the better forcing to the west of the area Saturday afternoon, an isolated thunderstorm or two over our western counties remains a possibility. Otherwise, temperatures warm into the low 80s as clouds increase ahead of the trough. By evening, earlier thunderstorms over the high plains are forecast to develop into one or more convective systems that approach our area by late Saturday evening into Saturday night. These convective systems may pose a risk of severe weather, with damaging winds of particular concern. Large hail and a couple tornadoes may also be possible, but this threat appears relatively low at the moment. A strong low-level jet may help to fuel additional shower and thunderstorm development behind any convective systems into Sunday morning, before everything pushes east.

Flash flooding is likely to be another concern for Saturday. Rich gulf moisture is forecast to support precipitable water values nearing 2" across a large swath of the region. This allows for efficient rainfall from any mesoscale systems, where several inches of rain may fall in a short period of time. In addition, any additional development or backbuilding of thunderstorms could further contribute to flash flooding heading into Sunday morning. Overall model consensus is that 1-3" of rainfall is probable across much of the area with locally higher amounts possible. There remains large uncertainty in the location of greatest rainfall totals. This makes it hard to pinpoint areas where a flood watch may be required. As more convective-allowing guidance comes into range, increasing confidence in the location of greatest rainfall is expected. A flood watch may be required in later forecasts.

Beyond Sunday morning, forecast details become more uncertain. Depending on the evolution of Saturday's system, Sunday could be a cooler and quieter day or additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. In either case, unsettled weather remains in the forecast. There will be breaks in rain chances at times, but additional troughs are forecast to move across the Plains heading into next week. This will maintain rain chances across the region and helps to keep temperatures mild in the 70s and low 80s. As a reminder, we are at our climatological peak of severe weather, so these additional rain chances may eventually pose a severe weather risk. Keep tabs on the latest forecasts with continued active weather expected.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Light northwest winds continue this evening with a cumulus deck around 6-7 kft. Winds become light and variable after sunset as skies clear, but winds should predominately shift towards the south. Southwest winds develop during the late morning on Friday with an additional afternoon cumulus deck expected. Showers and thunderstorms may also develop, but these chances remains low with high uncertainty on aviation impacts at area terminals at this time.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.