textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers and likely (50-75% chance) today, with narrow bands expected. Strong northwesterly wind gusts of 40-50 mph may lead to significant drops in visibility in snow showers.

- Most of the area will see snowfall totals under an inch today, though locally higher amounts (2-3+ inches) will be possible where narrow bands set up.

- Cold air and lingering winds will result in very cold wind chills from 5 to 20 degrees below zero Saturday and Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Today...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis early this morning depict a potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough pivoting across the northern Plains. In response, an initial cold front pushed south through the are overnight, ushering in CAA behind it. Forcing for ascent in the post-frontal environment has generated areas of light radar reflectivity, which have translated to periods of light rain and snow early this morning. Despite the reflectivity appearance on radar, model sounding indicate considerable low-level dry air through the early morning hours, limiting accumulations to a trace for most locations.

Light early morning precipitation has been sufficient enough to aid downward momentum transfer, as northwesterly wind gusts of 35-48 mph have already been observed. Given this, the Wind Advisory has been started a bit early. A brief lull in gusts is possible behind the early-morning activity, but stronger mixing later this morning will allow gusts to ramp up again. By late morning into early afternoon, widespread northwesterly gusts of 40-50 mph are expected, with the strongest winds favored across northeast Nebraska.

As secondary cold front is expected to drive southward into the area later this morning. Behind the front, enhanced CAA will lead to quickly falling temperatures, with highs briefly reaching the lower 30s before steadily dropping throughout the remainder of the day. The more impactful weather for the day arrives behind this passage, as snow showers push into the area, expected to initially push into northeast Nebraska around 6-8 AM. Although some initial low-level dryness will need to be overcome, model soundings continue to show steep lapse rates within the dendritic growth zone, favoring the development of shallow, convective snow showers.

CAM guidance remains in fairly good agreement depicting these snow showers as narrow, "streaky" band of QPF aligned parallel to the low- level flow. These features appear to be driven be horizontal convective rolls, which are able to tap into enough instability to locally saturate the column and allow snow to reach the ground. While CAMs continue to be in fairly good agreement in resolving these convective streamers, confidence in exact placement of the narrow bands remains low. When combined with the strong northwesterly winds gusts, rapid and significant fluctuations in visibility are likely over short distances. Narrow corridors of near- whiteout conditions are possible, and a snow squall warning or two may be needed during the day.

These snow shower bands will progress southward through the day, tapering off from north to south later this evening. As a result, the morning commute may be impacted across northeast Nebraska, with potential evening commute impacts farther south across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Winds will gradually diminish late this afternoon into the evening, with the Wind Advisory set to expire at 6 PM.

Snowfall totals will be highly variable. Most locations have a low probability (5-25%) of reaching an inch, with many areas seeing no accumulation or just a dusting. However, within the narrow bands where snow showers persist the longest, localized amounts near an inch are possible, and isolated reports of 2-3+ inches cannot be ruled out if sufficient residence time occurs beneath one of these convective bands. The highest chance of seeing these higher totals is across northeast Nebraska. Blowing snow may be a lingering concern through the day for any areas that tap into these higher totals.

Saturday...

Saturday is shaping up to be the coldest day of the forecast period as strong north-northwesterly flow aloft continues to usher an arctic airmass into the region. Overnight lows early Saturday morning are expected to fall into the single digits, when coupled with wind gusts of 20-30 mph, morning winds chills are expected to range from 10 to 20 degrees below zero. The coldest conditions are anticipated across northeast Nebraska, where wind chills approaching 20 below zero may necessitate a Cold Weather Advisory.

CAA will remain firmly in place through the day, keeping afternoon temperatures from recovering much. Highs will struggle to reach the teens, running roughly 10-20 degrees below seasonal norms.

Sunday and Beyond...

Sunday will begin on the cold side, with morning lows again in the single digits and wind chills in the single digits below zero. Temperatures will warm somewhat during the day, with afternoon highs rebounding into the mid 30s to low 40s. This brief warmup will be short-lived, however, as a shortwave disturbance pivoting through the northern Plains drives another cold front into the area during the latter half of the day. Long-range guidance suggests this frontal passage could be accompanied by gusty northwesterly winds in the 25-35 mph range, along with spotty QPF that may support another round of isolated snow showers. Given the spread among model solutions and low QPF, PoPs remain low for now (under 20%).

In the wake of this system, renewed CAA will knock Monday's mornings wind chills back into the 5 to 15 below zero range, with afternoon high temperatures only peaking in the 20s. For the remainder of the work week, high temperatures are generally expected to settle into the mid 30s to mid 40s as the region remains under persistent northwesterly flow aloft. At this time, no day in the extended forecast shows a signal for meaningful precipitation, though a series of passing shortwave disturbance tracking near or just north and east of the area will continue to be monitored for any trends.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 430 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail this morning, though a complex forecast period is expected through the day. Narrow bands of snow showers will move into northeast Nebraska around 12-14Z and progress southward across the area into the afternoon. MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities are likely within these snow showers, with brief periods of LIFR possible in heavier bands. Due to the narrow and scattered nature of the showers, confidence in the exact timing of impacts at individual terminals will remains low until they develop later this morning. As a result, TEMPO groups have been included to capture the most likely window of impacts, with amendments to be made as trends become clearer.

MVFR ceilings may persist into the evening at KOFK, while confidence in prolonged lower ceilings at KOMA and KLNK remains lower. Northwesterly winds will strengthen through the day, with gusts increasing to 30-40 kts by the afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078. IA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043.