textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will result in very high fire danger on Thursday, particularly in northeast Nebraska.

- Additional severe thunderstorm chances are expected on Friday, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. All severe weather hazards will be possible.

- Colder air arrives Friday night into this weekend. Saturday and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below freezing for many locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The upper-level trough that resulted in severe weather across the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon is departing our region to the east. In its wake, surface high pressure is building into the region. As a result, quiet weather conditions consisting of light winds and clear skies have overspread the area. Excellent radiation cooling allows temperatures to fall into the 40s for a cool start to Thursday. As we go through the day on Thursday, our next weather system will approach the northern Rockies. This supports the return of lee troughing across the Great Plains. In response, increasing southerly to southwesterly winds overspread the region. Temperatures quickly warm into the 80s by afternoon as relative humidities crater into the teens and 20s across much of the region. Due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for all of northeast Nebraska through the afternoon into the early evening.

By Friday, the aforementioned weather system will already be moving into the area. A fast moving cold front is forecast to be entering northeast Nebraska by Friday morning. This front may begin to slow with daytime heating, but the latest high- resolution guidance has the cold front reaching far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by the afternoon. With the timing of the front being a bit faster and potentially uncertain, the temperature forecast is also uncertain. Ahead of the front will remain warm, similar to Thursday, while much cooler air moves in behind the front. With the fast moving front, strong forcing for ascent should produce showers and thunderstorms. At this time, there is a risk severe thunderstorms, especially for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the afternoon. With the trend towards a faster front, this threat may be decreasing as a result. Showers may linger behind the front into the evening and overnight hours on Friday. If precipitation can hang around into Saturday morning, a few snowflakes may mix in as well. Thankfully, no impacts are expected with this.

As eluded to above, much colder weather begins the weekend. Portions of northeast Nebraska may see a Spring freeze Saturday morning. Elsewhere, sees middle to upper 30s during the morning hours. Temperatures only warm into the 50s Saturday afternoon with this colder airmass. Temperatures plummet further by Sunday morning with a widespread freeze likely. This freeze is before our typical last Spring freeze date, but recent green-up of vegetation may result in vegetation damage despite this. Temperatures quickly rebound by Sunday afternoon as upper-level ridging builds in. Temperatures climb back into the 70s to near 80 heading into next week. All is quiet weather-wise, until the middle of next week, when our next potential weather maker is forecast to breakdown the ridge. Thunderstorms chances are likely to return with this system.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with a few high clouds. Winds will be southerly to southwesterly with gusts of 20-25 kts starting around 17-18Z. Could see some low level wind shear late in the period at OMA and LNK with 50 kt southwest winds at 2000 ft AGL. A wind shift to westerly and then northwesterly looks to arrive at OFK very late in the period and will work through the rest of the area after 12Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-065. IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043.