textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as snow and some ice moves through. The highest potential for at least 1" will be northeast of a Niobrara to Red Oak line (50-70% chance).

- Breezy winds that gust to 25-35 mph will join the snow/ice Saturday, further reducing visibilities.

- Highs next week will continue to be a roller coaster; cold Sunday, much warmer Tue/Wed, before falling back below normal Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features northwesterly flow that is pouring in from the Pacific Northwest before becoming zonal for the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Warm temperatures have been creeping in from the west this afternoon behind a wind shift, helping highs into the lower 40s to upper 30s that should aid in clearing some of the minor snowpack in place. Steeper lapse rates in the low-to-mid levels have been consistent in soundings this afternoon, and are apparent in satellite imagery as some texture begins to develop at the cloud top level, signaling increasing chances for a few showers that will move quickly across northeast Nebraska before diminishing by the time they reach the NE/IA border through 8 or 9 PM. Initially, anything that does fall will be rain, with increasing chances for some ice to join in as we get later into the evening and as showers push into the cooler eastern half of the forecast area. Overall amounts should be only a trace, but could provide some slick spots on untreated surfaces. This evening into the overnight hours, temps will be bottoming out in the teens and twenties as gusts diminish, gradually shifting southeasterly pre- dawn in anticipation of tomorrow's weather maker.

The shortwave currently situated over southern British Columbia will approach the forecast area Saturday morning, helping to strengthen a surface low that travels from west-to-east from Nebraska into Iowa. The combination of strong warm aid advection, positive vorticity advection, and frontogenesis will be plenty of forcing to develop a north-to-south oriented band of precipitation that will be a combination of rain to the south, snow to the north, and some ice that has to first overcome dry air before reaching the ground. The amount of forcing will be more than enough to do just that, with the latter part of the day having cooler temperatures and increase snow potential when the band pushes into Iowa.

Timing out when precipitation is expected to start, things should begin hitting the ground close to 10 AM in northeast Nebraska arriving to Lincoln by 2 PM, and Omaha 2-3 PM. The general footprint for the rain/snow will become more narrow as you move south, with Omaha and Lincoln only expected to see rain/a few flakes for around 2 hours or less before the band has already shifted east. Farther north, it'll be much wider and allow for increased accumulation potential for that reason and because of the cooler temperatures. By 8 PM Saturday, precipitation should have cleared the area as it pushes across Iowa. One complicating factor will be gusty winds that will range from 25-35 mph at their peak and will further reduce visibilities and increase wet bulbing wherever it is possible.

Recent model runs continue to tighten up the placement of snowfall accumulations, with the corridor of highest snowfall steering largely clear of the forecast area in favor of far eastern South Dakota and IA/MN (meaning those traveling north on I-29 should be ready for travel difficulties). A Winter Weather Advisory is in place along and north of a line from Niobrara to Harlan, where the best chance to see 2" or more exists (currently (50-60% chance). Going two to three counties to the north east will increase snowfall totals to 4-6" or more very quickly, making regional travel difficult heading north or east. Omaha and Lincoln are going to miss out on any meaningful snowfall accumulation, but untreated surfaces that could still be we will freeze overnight as temperatures fall into the single digits and teens.

Sunday and Beyond:

For the latter half of the weekend we'll be right back in the ice box that we just climbed out of, with highs only mustering teens and twenties with a few minor flurries possible during the late afternoon and evening hours because of steep lapse rates that nose into the DGZ. Fortunately the cold will be short-lived, as southwesterly winds bring warmth for Monday and Tuesday, the latter of which has temps topping out in the upper 40s and low 50s. This warmth will also be short-lived as another system moving through the persistently northwesterly flow ushers a winter system through the upper Mississippi Valley. While this system is set to miss us at this time, another sheared-out wave will be poised to follow in it's footsteps and more southerly, being the next chance for snowfall for the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Model guidance has seen a significant increase in confidence in fog development along and south of the Platte River overnight tonight, now looking around a 70% chance for areas of fog likely to impact KOMA and KLNK overnight. Have introduced fog into the TAFs as the cigs around FL060 this evening will likely retreat back northward over the next several hours leading to clearing with calm winds. Seems like a likely fog scenario. Expect fog to impact the terminals until the winds start to pick back up around 13Z at KLNK. Unfortunately for KOMA, we'll see increasing higher clouds ahead of the approaching system help to keep the fog in place longer, only lifting it to IFR stratus by 16Z as winds start to pick up. With IFR stratus in place, I don't see any reason it won't remain in place at KOMA as the precip arrives around 18-19Z.

As far as the precip, expect snow to move into KOFK starting around 15Z, with IFR conditions likely to develop by 18Z. Precip arrives at KOMA around 18-19Z with some uncertainty in precip type. It's looking likely to be a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow with light icing impacts right along the freezing line wherever that sets up. While heavier precipitation amounts will stay north of KOMA, with cigs still around FL007 expect at least vis around 3SM. All precip should stay north of KLNK, though can't rule out completely a short period of sprinkles during the afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for NEZ011-012-015-018. IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for IAZ043-055-056.