textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for widespread 2"-4" of heavy rain, with locally higher amounts possible.

- A couple strong to severe storms will be possible this evening, capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes. - Cooler, dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures trending back warmer next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Today through Thursday...

Gulf moisture, surging into the region ahead of the remnants of Hurricane Polo, crashed into a stalled frontal boundary, bisecting the forecast area. This interaction brought a steady rainfall to locations along and south of I-80 last night. By 7 AM, amounts had ranged from around 0.25" up to a max of 1"-2" from Lincoln to Omaha, and 1"-3" over the corners of far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

We saw a brief break in precip this morning, before the second wave developed with increasing low level convergence as the warm front associated with the land-fallen hurricane lifts north. The 18Z OAX sounding PWAT reached 2.08". This not only beats the daily max of 1.69, but is also the highest recorded PWAT to date, outside of the range from June 24th-August 23rd. Deep warm cloud layers, around 12,000 ft, within skinny, well saturated soundings confirm efficient heavy rain producing showers and storms can be expected through the afternoon and evening hours, as Polo's remnants surge northeast toward Kansas. Some locations receiving repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could see flash flooding, especially this evening and overnight.

While cloud cover may stifle potential energy development this afternoon, the warm front lifting north may bring just enough instability to produce deeper, potentially severe, convection. A decently strong LLJ will nose into the region this evening, bringing around 40kts of deep layer sheer. Spin associated with Polo will help curve hodographs across southeast Nebraska. This suggests that if a strong storm or two are able to develop, damaging winds and a tornadoes would be possible this evening.

Rain will likely continue through the overnight hours and into early Thursday, before pushing south and east of the forecast area. When all is said and done, widespread rainfall amounts of 2"-4" look likely across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with a narrow band of locally higher amounts, closer to 5"-6"+ possible. Significant rises on rivers in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa look likely, with a few already forecast to reach minor flood stage.

Friday and Beyond...

For those who are sick and tired of all of this rain, we have some good news for you - cooler and drier weather is on the way! Temperatures will dip into the 60s Friday through the weekend, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading the region. A ridge building over the southwestern CONUS will shift eastward by the middle of next week, bumping temperatures back into the 70s. There's a slight chance for a few showers popping up in the northwesterly flow by mid to late week, however widespread rain chances look nil for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

KOFK: MVFR conditions are expected this evening/tonight at the terminal, returning to VFR heading into tomorrow morning. Expect chances for a few rain showers with some visibility reductions through around 09Z with conditions gradually clearing at the terminal.

KOMA: IFR conditions continue at the terminal through around sunrise as a storm system moves across the region. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible this evening through early tomorrow morning. As far as thunderstorm chances, we are expecting an increase over the next couple of hours, with chances continuing through around 08Z. Rain continues through around 14Z as the system shifts out of the region.

KLNK: Thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to marginally severe will be possible this evening at the terminal. Thunderstorm chances taper off after 08Z; however, rain will continue through around 11Z. Ceilings will remain at IFR levels this evening into tonight, gradually improving to MVFR and VFR as the rain tapers off.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ044-045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for IAZ055-056-069-079- 080-090-091.