textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southerly winds will persist across the area today. Highs warm to the mid to upper 60s under mostly sunny skies.

- Warmer temperatures return this week. Dry conditions continue with our next chance of rain not until late Friday-Saturday (20-40%).

- Strong winds gusting 30-40 mph also arrive Friday, increasing fire danger for areas with standing crops.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery continues to feature a mid/upper shortwave riding the northern side of zonal flow set up along the US/Canadian border while another shortwave ejects northeastward into the Four Corners Region. Ahead of those features, a large-scale mass response is underway with south-southwesterly winds up and down the Great Plains, with those southerly winds helping to rebound temperatures from the 40s this morning well into the 50s on their way to their highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Much of that flow is sourced from the High Plains into central Texas, leaving little moisture for the incoming southwestern wave to work with. We'll see increasing cloud cover moving in this evening, lasting through much of the day tomorrow as highs top out in the mid 60s. Winds will decrease in speed heading into tomorrow as well, as the surface pressure gradient decreases and the incoming front to the northwest stalls out before arriving.

Tuesday and Beyond:

We'll see temperatures warm through the remainder of the week as mid/upper ridging increases in amplitude, propped up be a deepening trough off the Pacific Coast. Highs will top out Thursday/Friday in the mid 70s, with increasing flow once again in anticipation of the main system associated with the incoming trough. EPS members give northeast Nebraska greater than a 70% chance to see dry conditions alongside winds of 35 mph or greater. Those southern winds will be bringing in better moisture compared to the early week, meaning humidity values won't be critically low. With that said, area land managers and fire experts have observed extreme fire behavior with strong winds of 40 mph or greater with RH values of 50% or less. The best chances of that happening will be across our driest areas of northeast Nebraska, where there are still plenty of standing, fully cured crops waiting to be harvested. We'll continue to monitor the forecast trends, but very high to extreme fire danger is on the table Friday afternoon. Rain chances arrive Saturday into Sunday, with the main core of the upper system shooting very quickly to the north. This will decrease the forcing locally and limit the magnitude of the anticipated rainfall. Either way, we'll take it so we doing dry out too much during the peaking fall fire season.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions will take us through the next 24 hours, with south-southwesterly winds continuing through the afternoon, gusting to 20-25 kts. High-level clouds will begin approaching from the southwest later this evening and gusty winds will fall off, leaving us with 10 kts lower speeds out of the south- southeast through the remainder of the dry TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.