textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of scattered storms will move through the area this evening, with the strongest storm or two capable of strong wind gusts and one inch hail.

- A small area of near the Nebraska/Kansas border could see strong storm development between 3-8 PM, where large hail, strong winds, and a tornado or two are all possible.

- Cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Our next chance for rain appears to be on Wednesday with increasing uncertainty beyond this timeframe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Today:

Recent surface analysis paces a the combination of an outflow boundary and a warm front across the northern tier of Kansas and Missouri, connecting on one side to the MCS from earlier this morning, while the other links up with a surface low over northwest Kansas. Though the surface locally is a mesoscale mess, the more salient features to watch will be an elevated front at 850 mb, and the northward-surging baroclinic zone across north-central Kansas to the east of the surface low. The former will work to cause a scattered line of weaker elevated convection along it, while the latter possesses a higher-end severe potential to develop initially discrete cells that will be held within close proximity to the NE/KS border.

Going right to the higher-end potential, the surface low to the southwest will attempt to swing increased surface moisture northward along its eastern periphery. Forecast soundings have these storms as surface-based, allowing any storm that forms to tap into 45+ kts of effective bulk shear. There will be quite a bit of curvature in the lower hodograph, with the shape of it taking a large hail, right- moving supercellular look to it (sufficient for a tornado threat as well). Impressive hail analogs come up with those surface-based storms, especially ones that are able to stay discrete and reach hail sizes of 2.5" or more. The main point of uncertainty is how much dewpoints will be able to recover. As of now, areas of Jefferson and Gage Counties near the NE/KS border are 12 degrees lower than the HRRR model soundings indicate for the area at 20/21z. If those higher dewpoints are not realized, the hail threat would continue, the tornado threat would decrease, and gusty wind potential would increase -- especially as any discrete storms grow upscale during the afternoon. The current timing of those storms would initiate between 4-6 PM, moving to the southeast and clearing southeast Nebraska by 8 PM, affecting areas south of the Lancaster/Gage County line and points southeast.

Looking to the north, weak storms have already begun bubbling along the sluggish 850 mb front across northeast Nebraska. The combination of weak warm air advection and convergence at the nose of that northerly jet will continue a swath of scattered storms over the course of the afternoon and evening. CAMs begin giving this feature a kick in the pants to the southeast closer to 20z this afternoon, where it begins is push to the southeast. These storms are anticipated to be elevated, having access to decent instability but less effective shear to organize and sustain any updrafts to result in much more than isolated instances of quarter or a "splat" wind gust as an updraft collapses. Most of the forecast area will deal with these storms, being a nuisance for outdoor plans this evening before clearing the area to the southeast closer to 10 PM. Once they pass to the southeast, rain chances will end and we'll go into a quiet night with northerly winds and high pressure not too far behind.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Sunday with highs only in the mid 70s as a Canadian air mass moves in behind the front on Saturday. Going into early next week we see longwave troughing sink down over the Great Lakes region putting the Northern and Central Plains under strong northwesterly flow. This will keep temperatures cooler through the first half of next week, with dry air limiting any meaningful chances for rain. A shortwave brings a weak front through on Monday, mainly leading to increased cloud cover as our ensemble of guidance isn't that excited about any chance for rain. PoPs in the ensemble max out aound 5 to 10 percent. Temperatures will gradually trend back upward toward midweek as the cooler air shifts off to the east with the trough.

Wednesday and beyond...

Tuesday night into early Wednesday we see a warm front lift north associated with a more substantial mid-level wave. With a strong low- level jet moving into eastern Nebraska, expect another chance for early morning showers and storms, potentially some severe weather. Better chances for more significant severe weather right now appear to be south and east of our area, in areas with more residence time in the warm-sector ahead of the cold front. This could change if this system slows down in the coming days.

Once the cold front moves through late Wednesday, we see milder temperatures move back in on Thursday as post-frontal northwesterly flow settles back over our area. Toward the end of next week, the pattern becomes very unstable, with various waves in the upper-level pattern leading to much uncertainty in the forecast through the end of the week. General consensus does appear to show another potential system next Saturday, though confidence in any details is very low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Thunderstorms are the main story of the aviation forecast with a wind shift incoming from the northwest serving as an ignition point this afternoon. Storms become possible at KOFK as early as 18z, while KLNK and KOMA have to wait until 22/23 respectively. Theses storms will be smaller in nature compared to the morning ones, and could linger in any one location for 2-3 hours before sweeping to the southeast. As the wind shift moves through, winds will pick up speed and gust to 25 kts out of the north, with quieter winds incoming overnight. IFR conditions are possible as visibility drops during any periods of heavy rainfall. Once those chances are out of the way, northwesterly winds will carry us into the overnight and into tomorrow morning, with quiet weather taking over.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.