textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer week ahead with highs in the 30s and 40s Monday and 40s and 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Windy Thursday with much of the area likely to see gusts of at least 40 mph out of the northwest (50-80% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Quiet and chilly across the area today as we remained under northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure pushing off to our east. Southerly winds were starting to ramp up on the back side of the high, but temperatures as of 3 PM were still in the upper teens to mid 20s. The southerly winds will continue gusting around 20 mph overnight, keeping temperatures around 20 degrees warmer than last night, with lows in the teens to lower 20s. Similarly, we'll be much warmer during the day Monday (highs mostly in the 40s to lower 50s) as a surface warm front passes through and upper level ridging continues to edge eastward. We'll gain a few more degrees Tuesday and Wednesday with mid 40s to mid 50s both days.

By Wednesday night, a fairly strong shortwave trough and associated surface low will slide through the Dakotas and eventually drag a cold front through the forecast area. Still some questions on exact timing and track of the low, but eventually expect precip to develop in vicinity of the cold front. However, guidance suggests moisture will be somewhat limited over our area, and instead most of that precip falls to our east (and north closer to the low). That said, quite a few various ensemble members squeeze out at least some light QPF (light rain or sprinkles) in our area, so we'll maintain some 15- 20% chances. We'll see if it's able to overcome the dry air.

The bigger deal with this system will be strong winds. While it'll be a little breezy Wednesday with south winds gusting 20-30 mph, much stronger winds look to move in behind the cold front Thursday morning. EPS shows mean wind gusts of 40-50+ mph across the area. And while GEFS members are a little less aggressive, GFS model soundings (for whatever they're worth this far out) do show around 50+ kts at the top of the mixed layer. We'll see how things trend in the next couple days, but plan on a windy day on Thursday.

While it will be cooler behind the front, it won't be quite the plunge we saw this weekend, as daytime temps Thursday will stick in the 20s and 30s (though mostly falling). We'll return to the 40s and perhaps 50s Friday and Saturday, but another cold front looks to be on the way at some point for next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 639 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. However, a deck of low-level cloud may graze KOFK this evening, bringing brief period of MVFR ceilings. South- southwesterly winds will continue with sustained speeds of 12-15 kts and gusts of 18-25 kts through the bulk of the overnight period before calming under 12 kts late Monday morning. Low- level wind shear is expected at all terminals tonight as west- southwesterly winds increase to 45 kts at FL015-020. Skies will remain mostly clear, with a few high clouds passing by.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.