textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will return tonight through Saturday, with rain chances highest during the overnight and morning hours (75-90%). Rainfall totals are expected to reach 1 to 2 inches.

- Cool weather continues through Saturday, followed by a brief warmer, dry stretch Sunday into Monday.

- Shower and storm chances return early next week. Heavy rain on already saturated soil could lead to a flooding threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Tonight through Saturday...

We had our one nice, pleasant day with afternoon sunshine boosting temperatures into the mid 70s across the region under a weak ridge of high pressure. However, gloomy weather is set to to return the the mid Missouri Valley tonight and likely persist through Saturday. The first in a series of shortwaves is currently approaching from west, and will reignite showers across the region tonight. While a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, overall instability will remain weak at best through Saturday. Substantial Gulf moisture will remain over the Central CONUS, with PWATs rising to 1.5"-2". LREF probs estimate a 50-70% chance of seeing more than 1.5" through Saturday and a 30-45% chance of seeing greater than 2" of rain.

Precipitation chances wind down Saturday afternoon and evening, ending from west to east. Temperatures Saturday afternoon will be dependent on how quickly cloud cover clears out of the region. If afternoon sun manages to peak through, highs will likely reach into the mid 70s. However if cloud cover prevails, look to temperatures to remain similar to Thursday and Friday, in the 60s to lower 70s.

Sunday and Beyond...

Another brief ridge will build into the region Sunday, giving us another glimpse of sunshine and dry weather. Afternoon highs will likely reach the 70s.

Midlevel thermal ridging ahead of the next trough and surface cold front will allow temperatures to remain in the 70s on Monday, before showers and storms return to the region. Longer range models continue to hint at the potential for strong moisture advection into the region with this next system Monday through Wednesday, potentially supplemented by moisture from Hurricane Polo off the western coast of Mexico. Given the well-saturated soil conditions and potential for another round of heavy, abundant rainfall, areas of flooding may very well be a possibility. In addition to potentially heavy rain, a more unstable and sheared air mass could lead to the formation of strong to severe storms, as is highlighted by a 5-10% probability in machine learning guidance.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions across the board are in place this evening with an area of showers building into the area from the west and southwesterly winds continuing at around 10 kts. Over the course of the overnight hours, rain will further overspread KOFK, reducing to MVFR conditions by 12z and IFR conditions by the afternoon. KLNK and KOMA will see very minor and spotty rain before then, with the actual rainfall arriving there closer to 14-16z tomorrow morning with MVFR conditions developing at those terminals. Winds will stay steady through the period direction- wise, out of the southeast at 10 kts or less aside from the KOFK area that could see some gusts near 20 kts tomorrow morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.