textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures are driving high to very high fire danger today. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible after 5 PM this evening, and should stay sub-severe.

- A cold front slips in from the north on Tuesday, ushering in strong gusts of 35-45 mph and cooler temperatures.

- Expect a pattern shift bringing cooler and wetter conditions Tuesday through the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Cloud cover has been pouring into the area this afternoon, evident of larger-scale ascent via warm air advection and decreasing mid/upper height and helping to contribute to increasing chances for showers this afternoon. Before we get there, a strong low-level thermal ridge that we are mixing to is helping warm temperatures to record levels this afternoon, with temperatures already in the 80s poised to reach 90 degrees at their peak. Steeper lapse rates aloft in model soundings are working with increasing moisture from the south to increase instability values, but most of that potential will be difficult to realize due to dry-enough lower-level air. We still have roughly 500 J/kg of elevated instability and 20 kts or less of effective shear for any parcels to play with, and the combination could result in some shower/thunderstorm activity where lift is maximized (across southeastern Nebraska and primarily southwest Iowa). No hazardous weather is anticipated, but a few gusts to 35-40 mph underneath a tall, elevated storm is certainly on the board (15-30% chance).

Overnight, winds will become lax in the presence of surface boundaries before a strong cold front swings strong southerly winds through the area around sunrise. We've been trending the forecast towards 35-45 mph+ speeds as we get closer, but uncertainty as to how well we can mix into speeds closer to 50+ mph despite any leftover nocturnal influence. From there winds will slowly taper off, reducing to 25-35 by the afternoon hours and having low-end chances for rain across southeast Nebraska primarily with the passage of mid/upper shortwaves. Highs will also take a step down, only reaching the upper 50s to 60s compared to the record- breaking temps the day before.

Wednesday and Beyond:

The latter portion of the forecast period trends wet, as a system takes shape in the lee of the Rockies before pivoting to the northeast through the course of Wednesday and Thursday. We'll have quite the temperature spread between northeast Nebraska and southeast Nebraska, with a few mentions of snow and ice trickling into the area during the overnight hours Wednesday. Fortunately, warm surface temperatures will keep much from accumulating and causing any problems. Another system will be on it's tail Friday into Saturday, with decreasing confidence that this system will bring higher precipitation. What it will bring is a better chance for northeast Nebraska to see snow, as it will carry with it stronger winds out of the northwest in its wake. All in all, the current forecast carries 0.5-1" or more of total rainfall through these two systems, which would be a boon for the spring greenup and to limit the worsening of drought conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light southerly winds will gradually increase to 10-12 kts this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move in from northwest to southeast Tuesday morning, bringing strong northerly winds gusting up to 30-45mph. winds will be strongest across northeast Nebraska and gradually weaken as it moves southeast. The front will reach KOFK around 11Z, and KLNK and KOMA around 12Z. A few spotty rain showers will be possible across the region this evening and overnight, however confidence in where and if they will develop remains low at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.......Monday, March 30th..........

...... FORECAST..... OLD RECORD

Lincoln, NE.. 90F .... 88 in 1917 Omaha, NE.... 89F .... 89 in 1968 Tekamah, NE . 87F .... 81 in 2015 Falls City .. 89F .... 90 in 1986 Norfolk, NE . 86F .... 87 in 1968 Valley, NE... 88F .... 78 in 2012

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.