textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer week ahead with highs in the 30s and 40s Monday and 40s and 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Light precipitation possible Wednesday night into early Thursday (15-20% chance) falling mainly as rain, though a brief transition to a rain/snow mix will be possible at end.

- Windy Thursday with much of the area likely to see gusts of at least 40 mph out of the northwest (50-80% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Skies are clear this morning with gusty winds out of the south/south-southwest. Satellite shows the Polar Jet and storm track up to our north over the Dakotas down into northeast Iowa this morning. Significant dry air and subsidence is in place across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Overnight a warm front moved through bringing in gusty winds out of the south- southwest which have helped keep temperatures warmer overnight, staying up in the upper teens to low 20s. We'll see significant warm-air advection into the area today behind this front with highs warming into the 40s to near 50 across the area. Only exception will be places with a deeper snowpack in far northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa which will probably only get up into the upper 30s. A shortwave will bring through a weak cold front shifting winds back to the northwest by this afternoon, but with a broad upper-level ridge expanding eastward into the Northern Plains, there isn't any significant cold air for the front to bring in despite the wind shift.

As we go into Tuesday, we'll see another weak shortwave shift winds back to southwesterly overnight with another cold front moving through Tuesday afternoon. Again, despite the wind shift temperatures will remain mild, warming into the upper 40s to mid 50s across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Our next system of note will approach on Wednesday as the upper-level ridge starts to break down with the injection of a strong jet streak from the Pacific into the PacNW. The trough associated with the leading edge of this jet streak will be moving through Wednesday night into Thursday developing a more dynamic low pressure system over the Northern Plains. While the bulk of this system stays to our north, we will see breezy southerly winds ramp up during the day on Wednesday as the pressure gradient deepens across our area with the approach of the Low to our north. Wednesday night into early Thursday we'll see the cold front arrive, bringing some low-chance PoPs around 15-20% mainly to northeastern Nebraska and western Iowa. While most of this will fall as rain due to mild temperatures, we may see a brief transition to a rain-snow mix toward the end as cooler temperatures move in behind the cold front. No accumulation is expected at this time.

The biggest hazard with this system will be the strong winds behind the cold front that arrive on Thursday. Right now it looks like wind gusts of 40+ mph are likely (50-80% chance). If this pans out, a Wind Advisory will likely be needed with strongest winds expected for northeast Nebraska. Temperatures on Thursday will cool back down behind this front, but still peak up in the 30s to low 40s, so not terribly cold.

Friday we see another warm front push through bringing back southwesterly winds and warmer temperatures with highs back in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Going into the weekend we continue to see a fairly zonal flow pattern across the CONUS bringing additional shortwaves through with our next shot of cooler air arriving Saturday night into Sunday. Still no significant chance for precipitation in sight, even into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 518 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Clear skies and VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. LLWS from overnight should be ending by 14Z as strong winds aloft relax. Winds at the surface will gradually shift to westerly by this afternoon, with KOFK seeing winds turn fully northwesterly. Winds will remain out of the west or northwest through the remainder of the afternoon, flipping back to southerly around 00Z. Winds will remain light out of the south through the overnight hours tonight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.