textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- 20-30% chance of precipitation tonight in far northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Expect mostly rain, but a few snowflakes could mix in, with little to no accumulation.

- A warming trend will continue into early next week, with mid 50s to mid 60s through the weekend and mid 60s to near 70 by Tuesday.

- 20-40% chance of rain late Friday night into Saturday, mainly near and south of I-80. Expect more rain chances through next week starting Tuesday/Wednesday, but confidence in exact timing and location is low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Pretty quiet across the region this morning with surface high pressure lingering and an upper level ridge axis just to our west. There was a weak area of surface low pressure in eastern WY that is progged to develop eastward along the SD/NE border late this afternoon through the overnight hours. Ahead of this feature, we'll see some strengthening mid-level frontogenesis tonight with most guidance suggesting some resulting QPF in far northeast NE/southeast SD into west-central IA. Looking at model soundings, there remains quite a bit of low level dry air that should keep anything that develops light and spotty. For now, have chances in the 15-30% range with liquid amounts of a few hundredths of an inch at most. We should be warm enough for mostly rain to fall, but can't rule out a few snowflakes mixing in at times.

Mean upper level ridging will continue eastward into next week allowing high temperatures to generally gain a few degrees each day through Tuesday. Expect upper 50s to lower 60s by Friday, widespread 60s by Sunday, and mid 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday (pending precip chances, more below). That said, a fairly potent shortwave trough currently off the coast of CA will be pushing into the Desert Southwest on Friday with surface low spinning up and pushing across the Southern Plains through Saturday. Still some spread on exact track of this system, but there are hints that precip on the northern periphery will clip southern portions of the forecast area, with consensus giving us a 20-40% chance of rain late Friday night into Saturday, mainly near and south of I-80.

Heading into next week, there is general agreement that the ridging will keep us dry through Monday while larger scale troughing starts to approach the west coast. Guidance is in decent agreement that some shortwave energy will eject off this larger trough and push east early in the week, spinning up a surface low and potentially bringing us some more precip chances. However, there is a lot of spread on timing and track of this energy, ranging from having the surface low over the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon with precip developing then, to having the low over MT and any precip staying north of our area. Later in the week, the main trough will swing through the central CONUS and give maybe a little more widespread precip, but again, there remains a lot of spread in timing and most favored locations for precip. So bottom line, guidance favors off and on precip chances next week, beginning as early as Tuesday (20- 30%), with higher chances likely being later in the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 501 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. A passing weather system is resulting in ceilings of 8-10 kft this evening and overnight. Any precipitation from this system is anticipated to remain north of area terminals. Light south winds continue across the region through the period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.