textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be much warmer than normal, largely in the 50s, through at least Friday. Normal temperatures are typically in the mid 30s. Temperatures will approach the 60s on Christmas Day, with the potential for record highs.

- No precipitation is expected through at least Thursday, with a near-zero chance of precipitation for the coming weekend. No White Christmas this year, more like a Brown Christmas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning shows the advertised upper-level ridge building across much of the CONUS. This upper-level ridge dominates our weather through much of this week. As the main jet stream is pushed into the Dakotas and Canada, warm southerly winds and mostly sunny skies send temperatures soaring this afternoon. Widespread 50s are anticipated with even a few 60s for far western portions of the area. Theses temperatures will be 20 degrees or more above normal for this time of year. Tuesday sees the upper-level ridge weaken slightly with a disturbance passing north of the region. A weak front pushes through dropping temperatures 5 to 10 degrees. This front may drop temperatures, but many hold onto the 50s. Temperatures will then increase slightly as the low-level thermal ridge axis pushes closer to the region. This equates to 50s once again with a few near 60 for Christmas Eve. By Thursday, Christmas Day, the low-level thermal ridge is forecast to be nearest the region, though perhaps a little to the east over northern Missouri. There remains a medium to high chance of 60s for much of the area. This may end up challenging several records across the region if these temperatures were to materialize. Scattered clouds and relatively weak surface winds do lower confidence in truly record heat, but it will be well above normal regardless. You can see the potential records below.

December 25th (Christmas) Records... Omaha... Forecast: 60 Record: 57 (1946) Lincoln... Forecast: 64 Record: 65 (1889) Norfolk... Forecast: 61 Record: 63 (1963)

After Christmas, the weather pattern across much of the CONUS begins to slowly change. A developing longwave trough over the western CONUS begins to break down the upper-level ridge. This should allow another weak disturbance to push a cold front through the area. That being said, temperatures in the 50s appears likely on Friday. Heading into the coming weekend, a more pronounced trough digs into the Great Lakes region. This puts our region under northwesterly upper-level flow, allowing cooler temperatures to return. Temperatures are likely to fall back into the 40s by Saturday and perhaps the 30s by Sunday. Unfortunately, limited moisture and weak upper-level forcing looks to keep us dry. It will not be a White Christmas, more like a Brown Christmas, with no precipitation in the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southerly winds continue this morning with LLWS possible at LNK and OMA from 210 degrees at 40 to 45 kts. This should subside over the next few hours. South to southwesterly winds remain this afternoon, increasing in speed to between 12-15 kts with a few higher gusts. After sunset, winds will weaken slightly.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.