textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- An active weather pattern continues with several chances of showers and thunderstorms into next week.

- There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats with any severe thunderstorms that develop.

- Severe thunderstorms may again be possible this weekend, but confidence is low at this time. Severe weather is anticipated by Monday across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa though.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A split flow pattern is noted in upper air analysis with a compact upper-low over southern Ontario and Lake Superior with a broad trough over Baja. With the compact low to our north, a cold front pushed through the region Wednesday afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms occurred along and just behind this front, but only light accumulations occurred over portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. This activity should gradually weaken and dissipate tonight. Temperatures fall into the 30s to low 40s by Thursday morning with the cooler airmass behind the aforementioned cold front.

In response to the southern stream trough and a digging trough over the northern Rockies, the cold front will quickly stall and begin to retreat back north as a warm front heading into Thursday afternoon. At this time, forecast guidance brings the warm front north to approximately the Nebraska-Kansas border, but there remains disagreement on the exact placement of the front. A few forecast models bring the warm front closer to the I-80 corridor. Where the front ends up will determine the expected temperatures. Areas north of the front hold in the upper 50s to low 60s, while 70s are likely south of the front. A few stray showers or a thunderstorm is possible during the late morning and early afternoon north of the front, but chances are relatively low compared to late afternoon and evening. By late afternoon and evening, the northern Rockies trough will begin to support more robust thunderstorm development along and north of the warm front. Thunderstorms are almost certain for much of east and southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. With these thunderstorms there is a threat of severe weather. At this time there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5), mainly for large hail and damaging winds, though a tornado can't be ruled out along and south of the warm front. With that said, most storms are likely to be sub- severe with limited instability with northern extent. Thunderstorms will begin to move out of the area as the warm front becomes a cold front once again and sags south of the region.

A brief lull is anticipated on Friday with cooler temperatures in place behind the front. This quickly changes heading into the weekend as the split flow pattern evolves into a larger western CONUS trough. This development should support return flow by Saturday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture. A few leading shortwaves may drive thunderstorm development and perhaps severe weather, but there remains some uncertainty on these specific details. Saturday sees showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours as the warm front lifts north through the region, with at least some threat of afternoon redevelopment. The better chance of thunderstorms is forecast for Sunday as the trough draws closer to the region along with a slow moving front. Gusty south winds are likely as moisture streams north. Thunderstorms continue to be in the forecast heading into Monday as the trough finally begins to eject east across the Plains. Severe weather is currently anticipated for at least far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa on Monday.

Beyond this, shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, but a cooler, more stable airmass behind a cold front should provide a lull in severe weather through the middle of next week. That said, return flow redevelops towards the end of next week, signaling more potential for active weather.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. A cold front has moved through the area, resulting in gusty north to northwest winds this afternoon and evening. Wind speeds are beginning to decrease late this evening and are expected to become light after sunset. Light north to northeast winds occur overnight. Winds become easterly as a warm front begins to develop to the south of the area late Thursday morning and afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated near the warm front Thursday afternoon and evening. At this time, the majority of this activity is anticipated to remain south of area terminals until at least 21Z. Showers and thunderstorms may then begin to impact LNK and OMA by the end of this forecast period. Decreasing ceilings to MVFR may also begin to result in aviation impacts late in the forecast period also.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.