textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible in northeast Nebraska this evening, with damaging wind gusts (up to 65 mph) and hail (up to 1 inch) the primary hazards.

- Above-average temperatures continue through Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday into Friday, primarily across southeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Today and Tonight...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon show generally zonal flow aloft across the region, with a mid-level low pushing onshore over British Columbia. At the surface, a broad corridor of high pressure remains positioned to our south and east, with southerly low-level flow gusting at 20-30 mph ushers in above- average temperatures. Highs are expected in the mid 80s to lower 90s today.

Storm chances return to northeast Nebraska late this afternoon and evening along a weak area of surface convergence and near the nose of a developing LLJ. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain weak, with bulk shear values only around 25 kts. However, instability will be plentiful, with a corridor of 2000-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE extending into northeast Nebraska. Given the setup, a minimally organized cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop across north-central Nebraska by late afternoon, then drift eastward into northeast Nebraska during the evening hours. Damaging wind gusts (up to 65 mph) will be the primary hazard, as model soundings show a fairly dry lowest 2 km and DCAPE values of 1200-1500 J/kg. Hail approaching 1 inch in diameter cannot be ruled out under any stronger cores. Areas south of a Columbus to Norfolk to Sioux City line are expected to remain dry through the holiday. Storms should gradually weaken and drift east-northeast late this evening into the overnight hours.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Mid- to upper-level ridging will bring mostly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs continuing in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Precipitation chances return Thursday into Friday as the aforementioned British Columbia low shifts south and east into the Great Basin, sending several weak shortwave disturbances through the flow and potentially grazing the area. PoPs currently peak at 50-80% Thursday afternoon, then remain elevated at 40-60% through Friday afternoon. Latest NBM guidance places the highest rainfall probabilities across southeast Nebraska, with a 50-75% probability for at least 0.50 inch of precipitation south of Interstate-80 and a 20-50% probability northward. It is worth noting that guidance has continued to trend better precipitation chances further south. No day in this period currently stands out for severe weather, as the better instability and forcing for ascent remain displaced to the south and west, closer to the Front Range. Increased cloud cover will keep highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday and Friday.

Periodic 15-25% PoPs continue through the weekend as a ribbon of vorticity remains draped near the area. Highs will stay near average, generally in the upper 70s. Beyond next week, long-range guidance continues to show ridging building into the central Plains, likely bringing mostly dry conditions and warming temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. Southerly winds will continue at 12-16 kts, with gusts up to 25 kts before gradually calming under 12 kts through the evening. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible across northeast Nebraska this evening, though it will likely remain north of KOFK and has not been included in the TAF at this time. Brief MVFR conditions and wind gusts (up to 50 kts) will be possible within the cluster of storms. Low- level wind shear will impact KOFK overnight as a 40-45 kt low- level jet noses in at FL015. Mid- and high- level cloud cover will increase through the overnight period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.