textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- 30% chance for storms Friday evening. Some storms could be severe with large hail or strong wind gusts.

- Periodic chances for storms continue through the weekend into next week with the highest potential for severe weather being on Monday.

- Up and down temperatures in the 70s and 80s through Monday, with persistent highs in the 60s and 70s arriving by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Pretty quiet across the region today with surface high pressure in control. Temperatures as of 1 PM were in the lower to mid 80s with notably less humidity than Wednesday in most areas. Otherwise, the main feature of note in the short term was a shortwave trough moving across OR/ID that will continue eastward across WY and eventually spin up a surface low that moves through SD/MN on Friday and drags a cold front into the forecast area. While guidance is in good fairly good agreement that we'll have a decent ribbon of instability ahead of the front, there will also be quite a bit of capping to overcome. In addition, the strongest forcing with the wave looks to remain just north of our forecast area. As a result, CAMs are pretty sparse in storm coverage in our area, but a few still hint at development during the evening into overnight hours as moisture transport ramps up a bit. Given modest shear, storm organization and strength should be somewhat limited, but can't completely rule out a strong to severe storm with damaging winds and/or hail being the primary threats. Latest forecast has a 20-30% chance of precip.

The forecast then gets a little tricky beyond that, with guidance differing on where that front stalls out/moves to Saturday into Sunday, along with timing and track of incoming shortwave energy. GEFS guidance generally suggests we'll see some additional shower and storm development along the boundary in southeast NE/southwest IA as early as Saturday afternoon, but moreso in the evening and overnight hours as shortwave energy moves through and moisture transport points into the area. In contrast, EPS guidance is very limited in precip coverage in that time period, with little to no forcing for ascent and a more diffuse front. Heading into Sunday, that boundary starts to edge back northward with guidance in good agreement of moisture transport pointing more into our area. As a result, Sunday is looking fairly wet, with 60-70% chances across much of the area.

While the weekend front will push farther north on Monday, another cold front will approach from the northwest and lead to more shower and storm chances. Ahead of that front, we should see a decent amount of destabilization, though guidance does suggest there could be lingering showers and storms early in the day, which may somewhat limit things. Shear will be on the increase through the day, though the strongest deep layer shear remains post-frontal, but there could be just enough overlap in this shear and instability ahead of the front to yield an organized severe weather threat. Obviously still lots of small- scale details to work out, but bottom line, Monday looks like our highest potential for severe weather over the next several days.

We will stay in a wetter pattern into next week with a surface boundary hovering in or just south of the forecast area while several shortwaves slide through the zonal to slight southwesterly flow pattern aloft. Severe weather potential should be somewhat limited after Monday with most of the instability remaining to our south, though with repeated rounds of rain, can't rule out a flooding threat in a few spots. Otherwise, temperatures will remain warm through Friday (80s), cool down a bit for the weekend (mid 70s to 80), briefly warm back up Monday, then cool down for the remainder of the week (mid 60s to lower 70s). Of course, rain and cloud cover on any given day could throw a large wrench in the temperatures, so make sure to keep an eye on the forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle. Model guidance continues to hint at some fog and low level stratus at terminals after 13z. Gusty winds will likely limit the fog potential, but can't rule out few to scattered ceilings at 1,500 to 3,000 feet. Southeasterly winds will increase in speed and gustiness overnight at KOFK, turning more southerly by the mid morning and afternoon hours at KOMA and KLNK and persisting through the duration of the TAF cycle. Have refined timing of strongest winds and introduced gustiness at KOMA.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.