textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous cold is expected Thursday through Saturday nights, with wind chill values falling into the teens to 35 below zero. The coldest period will be Thursday night/Friday morning.

- Light snow chances (20-40%) this afternoon for far northeast NE & west-central IA, with accumulations up to 1/2 inch.

- Strong winds are anticipated Wednesday, with northwesterly gusts of 35-50+ mph. This will lead to increased fire danger. In addition, the wind combined with snow showers in northeast Nebraska/west-central Iowa may bring brief visibility drops (10-20% chance). Little to no accumulation is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Clouds were on the increase early this afternoon as some shortwave energy and a surface cold front were pushing in from the northwest. There were a few light radar returns creeping into northeast NE as of 3 PM, but no obs sites were reporting snow just yet. Eventually do expect some light snow to work in as the stronger forcing arrives with short term guidance in good agreement that at least northeast NE and west-central IA get clipped by a dusting of snow (up to 1/2" for areas north and east of Norfolk), though questions remain on southern and western extent of any accumulation with dry air preventing much from occurring. We have a similar precip setup on Wednesday with another shortwave trough and cold front possibly clipping far northeast NE/west-central IA with some light snow, but trends have been a little farther northeast so chances are only in the 10-20% range.

The bigger thing to note on Wednesday will be gusty west to northwest winds with surface high pressure to our southwest and low pressure and incoming front to our north. Prior to the front's arrival, southwesterly to westerly winds should allow temperatures to climb into the upper 30s and 40s for much of the area, with perhaps a few spots near the NE/KS border approaching 50. Then as the front starts to move in, expect winds to become northwesterly and gust at least 40-50 mph across much of the area. A spot check of model soundings shows 50+ kt winds at the top of the mixed layer with HREF probabilities of 50+ mph gusts in the 30-60% range across much of northeast NE and into west-central IA. For now, issued a Wind Advisory for areas near and north of I-80, but wouldn't completely rule out the need for a High Wind Warning in some counties given the aforementioned soundings (10-20% chance). The wind will also lead to an increased fire concern, especially in portions of southeast NE where we could see those temperatures approaching 50 degrees, though currently thing temperatures will stay just low enough and RH just high enough (30-35%) to preclude a Red Flag Warning. Finally, if we do end up getting the snow mentioned above, some brief visibility reductions would be expected given the wind speeds, but accumulation again looks to remain minimal.

Thursday will be cooler and quiet behind the front with surface high pressure in control. However, a reinforcing cold front will start to push in Thursday afternoon with temperatures absolutely tanking through the evening and overnight. Expect widespread lows in the single digits and teens below 0 along with north winds at about 10- 20 mph. This will result in dangerous cold with wind chills ranging from around 15 below 0 near the NE/KS border to 30-35 below in portions of northeast NE/west-central IA. Did end up issuing an Extreme Cold Watch for those areas expected to dip below -30 wind chill and will eventually need a Cold Weather Advisory for a vast majority of the rest of the area. Unfortunately, there won't be much relief during the day on Friday, as high temperatures will be in single digits (mostly above 0) with wind chills remaining in the teens below 0.

The weekend itself looks to remain cold with highs mostly in the lower to mid teens and lows in the single digits below 0. We'll likely need an additional Cold Weather Advisory at least Friday night/Saturday morning, and possibly again Saturday night/Sunday morning. Regardless of advisory, it'll be cold.

We'll also have some occasional snow chances Friday-Sunday to go with the cold. The highest chances look to be Friday evening into Saturday as a mid-level low ejects some energy into the Desert Southwest and a broad area of precip develops ahead of it, the northern extent of which may creep into the forecast area. Still a lot of spread in just how far north this precip gets, though there is good agreement that the most impactful wintry weather will stay well to our south. For now, we're looking at a 20-40% chance of snow in this timeframe with amounts favored to be 1-2" at most if we get any.

Temperatures should start to moderate a bit early next week as we get back into the 20s on Monday followed by 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday as the cold upper level trough starts to push off to the east.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 524 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period. A band of light snow will struggle to reach the ground as it passes through the region this evening. While a brief period of MFR conditions can't be completely ruled out, it looks unlikely to impact the TAF sites at this time. Winds will shift to the NW and W this evening, as the band passes through, around 04Z. Wind speeds will increase drastically Wednesday afternoon, becoming northwesterly, as a cold front surges through the region. Expect gusts over 30-40kts late in the forecast period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067. Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NEZ011-012-015-017-018. IA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080. Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for IAZ043.