textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A few storms may move into eastern Nebraska tonight, with lightning and an isolated wind gust possible.

- Patchy fog may develop overnight, especially in low-lying or sheltered areas. Sunday will be mostly clear, with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible.

- Near-average July temperatures continue this week, with periodic thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Tonight through Monday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis tonight depict an area of mid-level high pressure over the Desert Southwest, with generally zonal flow aloft over our region north of this feature. A series of shortwave disturbances continue to round the ridge, with the most locally impactful wave pushing from the Front Range into west- central Nebraska tonight. This feature, along with an associated surface trough, has led to storm development to our west, with activity slowly pushing eastward.

Plenty of instability remains in place this evening, though shear remains a limiting factor (bulk shear near 20 kts). With this in mind, storms are not expected to maintain their intensity particularly well as they move into the area. The primary concerns will be lightning and perhaps an isolated wind gust with any decaying storms that push into eastern Nebraska tonight. Plenty of low-level moisture and calming winds overnight will support the potential for patchy fog development, especially in low- lying and wind-protected areas.

Sunday is shaping up to be a mostly clear day, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop along a transient surface low and associated cold front pushing southward across the mid-MO Valley. Pockets of small hail or gusty winds will remain possible with any stronger storms, given ample instability but limited shear (~20 kts bulk shear). A funnel cloud sighting also cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon, especially near the surface low across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, where some surface vorticity and low-level instability overlap.

Monday looks warm and mostly clear as broad mid-level ridging overspreads the area. High temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s under generally calm conditions.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The remainder of the forecast period will generally be characterized by zonal flow aloft, with a series of shortwave disturbances sliding through the region. This will support near-average July temperatures along with periodic rain and thunderstorm chances. Highs through the rest of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The first shortwave disturbance is expected to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing PoPs of 35-70%. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, as sufficient instability and shear may be in place. GEFS and EPS-EPS-AIFS based machine learning guidance indicate a 5-15% probability for severe weather, mainly focused on Wednesday. Another shortwave disturbance is forecast to move through late Thursday into Friday, bringing another round of 20-35% Pops. Confidence in the finer details remains limited at this range and will become clearer as these features approach.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 547 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period, with a few brief nuances possible. A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to push into northeast Nebraska later this evening (05/06-09Z). The highest chance of impacts will be at KOFK, though storms are currently expected to decay before reaching the terminal. Amendments will be made if needed as storms may produce brief visibility reductions and strong wind gusts (up to 50 kts).

Minor, patchy visibility restrictions will also be possible tonight from firework smoke. Patchy fog development is expected overnight, with patchy areas dipping into MVFR visibility possible. Fog has not been included in the current TAF package as there is low confidence in coverage. Unless impacted by thunderstorms, winds will remain calm and variable, generally veering from southerly to northerly.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.