textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous cold expected through Monday morning, with wind chills ranging from the teens below zero to as cold as 35 below zero. The coldest conditions are expected Friday morning.

- Snow chances return Friday night through Saturday, with the highest totals (2-4+ inches) expected along the Nebraska- Kansas border, tapering off northward.

- Temperatures trend upward early next week, but values will remain below seasonal normals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Friday...

A broad high pressure system continued to spill out of Canada overnight, drawing colder air into the Central Plains. By 2 AM, temperatures had plummeted into the single digits above and below 0, with radiational cooling slightly mitigated by cloud cover. Breezy north winds reached speeds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, resulting in apparent temperatures in the negative teens and 20s. The Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisories will continue through 10 AM today. Wind chills of -15 to -25 could linger until the early afternoon at some locations.

Friday Night Through Saturday...

Isentropic lift coupled with a weak midlevel wave will bring a swath of snow to the region Friday evening and into Saturday. Latest CAM and model solutions indicate dry air associated with the surface high to our northeast will create a sharp cut off in snow amounts on the northern edge of the precipitation, leaving much of the northern half of our CWA, essentially north of I-80 with only minor accumulations, likely an inch or less. Farther south, cold air will lead to relatively high snow to liquid ratios, and fluffier snow. Snowfall will gradually come to an end from north to south Saturday afternoon and evening. Latest model runs appear to be picking up on the potential for dry air to limit northern snowfall accumulation. The HREF generally limits accumulations of greater than an inch to areas south of a line from Grand Island, to Lincoln, to Creston, IA. Similarly the latest LREF GrandEnsemble run indicates only a 50% chance of greater than 2" near the NE/KS border, and little to no chance of more than 4" within our CWA. The NBM on the other hand still indicates an 80-90% chance of greater than 2" near the border, with 40-60% between Omaha and Lincoln. NBM probs of greater than 4" have dipped to 50 to 60% near the border region. Therefore, we have lowered snowfall totals slightly from the previous forecast, with an inch or less expected over northeast NE and west-central Iowa,and up to 2-4" along the Nebraska/Kansas border.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been hoisted for locations near the southern border where forecast amounts remain closer to 2" or more. Thankfully winds will be lighter on Saturday at speeds of 5 to 10 mph. However, expect periods of reduced visibilities in heavier snow, and slick travel conditions on roads and sidewalks, especially over southeast Nebraska and parts of southwest Iowa.

High Temperatures will double by Saturday afternoon, to 6-8 degrees, which isn't saying much with Fridays highs topping out around 0-4 degrees. Wind chills will be just warm enough to fend off another Cold Weather Advisory Saturday morning, only dipping into -10 to -20 at most locations.

Sunday and Beyond...

A brief warming trend allows temperatures to double once again on Sunday, reaching 12-16 degrees in the afternoon, after morning wind chills bottom out at 0 to -15.

The next mid-level disturbance is projected to move through the region Sunday night. While no additional snow is expected with that feature, there will be a reinforcing shot of arctic air Sunday night, behind a fast-moving cold front. While most of the forecast area will see wind chills of -5 to -15, a few locations, especially in northeast Nebraska, could dip to -20 or below, potentially requiring more cold weather headlines.

Dry weather is forecast to prevail through the majority of the upcoming week. Expect temperatures to gradually warm close to 30 degrees on Tuesday, and dipping back into the low 20s through the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the majority of the period. Gusty northerly winds will diminish through the morning, dropping below 12kts around 15-17Z. Light winds will continue to veer toward the east/northeast by this evening. A few flurries or light snow showers have begun to reach the ground just south of a line from KOLU to KLNK this morning. This region of light snow is expected to dissipate as it drifts farther south this morning. Another more widespread round of snow will move in from the southwest this evening, likely reaching KLNK by 06Z tonight. While some light snow is possible at both KOFK and KOMA by late in the period, timing and coverage of the snowband remains questionable at this time.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for NEZ011- 012-015>018-031>034. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NEZ030- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for NEZ078-088>093. IA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ043. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ055- 056-069-079-080-090-091.