textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of rain with a few thunderstorms continue through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2 inches are expected.

- Cool conditions linger through Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s, before a brief warmup and dry weather Sunday into Monday.

- Rain and storms return early next week, with heavy rainfall on already wet ground posing a risk of flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Tonight through Saturday...

We'll see a brief lull in precipitation before showers ramp up again late tonight/early Friday morning. While a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out Friday afternoon and evening, overall instability will remain weak at best. Substantial Gulf moisture will remain over the Central CONUS, with PWATs rising to 1.5"-2". LREF probs estimate a 60-80% chance of seeing more than 1.5" through Saturday and a 35- 50% chance of seeing greater than 2.5" of rain.

Cloud cover and showers will keep Friday's temperatures cool, in the low to mid 60s. Precipitation chances wind down Saturday afternoon and evening, ending from west to east. Temperatures Saturday afternoon will be dependent on how quickly cloud cover clears out of the region. If afternoon sun manages to peak through, highs will likely reach into the mid 70s. However if cloud cover prevails, temperatures will remain cooler, in the 60s to lower 70s.

Sunday and Beyond...

Another brief ridge will build into the region Sunday, giving us another glimpse of sunshine and dry weather. Highs will likely reach the 70s Sunday afternoon.

Midlevel thermal ridging ahead of the next trough and surface cold front will allow temperatures to remain in the 70s on Monday, before showers and storms return to the region. Longer range models continue to hint at the potential for strong moisture advection into the region with this next system Monday through Wednesday, potentially supplemented by moisture from Hurricane Polo off the western coast of Mexico. NBM probabilities maintain 60-75% chance for at least 1" of additional rainfall, and 35-50% chance for at least 2" Monday through Wednesday. Given the well-saturated soil conditions and potential for another round of heavy, abundant rainfall, areas of flooding may be possible. However, the gradual dumping of rain over several days will work to mitigate concerns.

In addition to potentially heavy rain, a more unstable and sheared air mass could lead to the formation of strong to severe storms, as is highlighted by a 5-10% probability in machine learning guidance. However, exact timing details of potential severe storms remains questionable at this time.

Looking ahead, long range guidance continues to struggle with how quickly the system will pull away to the east. The latest run of the GFS is beginning to come on board with the idea of precipitation and cooler weather persisting through at least Thursday as a surface low tracks through the Central Plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Widespread stratus is observed at terminals early this morning alongside scattered rain showers. Ceilings at all TAF terminals will deteriorate to IFR over the next few hours while visibilities hold in MVFR range, and rain showers will persist through 15-16z. Thereafter, should see a brief break in rain, but mist will likely linger over terminals while stratus remains locked in at 500 to 900 ft. By the late afternoon hours, more rain showers arrive while the IFR/LIFR ceilings persist at terminals for the duration of the TAF cycle. Southeast winds become gusty at KOFK in the late morning and afternoon at 20 to 25 kts. Lighter southeast winds at or below 12 kts prevail for the remainder of the terminals during the period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.