textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds gusting up to 30 to 45 mph at times this morning into the afternoon.

- Strong southerly winds will combine with dry fuels over northeast Nebraska to produce extreme fire conditions today with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 10am-7pm.

- Periodic strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday evening through Monday, with the best chances Saturday, Sunday, and Monday afternoon/evenings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Thursday through Thursday Night...

A ribbon of isentropic lift, seen on the 305K pressure surface, will sweep across the forecast area Thursday morning with the passage of a subtle warm front. CAMs have been fairly consistent in firing up a line of elevated convection along this boundary Thursday morning. However, showers and weak thunderstorms may have to contend with quite a bit of dry air eating away the majority of their precipitation before it reaches the surface.

Southerly winds will increase substantially behind the front Thursday morning into the afternoon, as a deepening low shifts along the central CONUS/Canadian border, tightening the pressure gradient. Gusts as high as 30-45 mph will be possible, with highest speeds over notably dry portions of northeast Nebraska. Minimum relative humidity will fall to 20 to 30 percent Thursday afternoon as temperatures rise into the 80s. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for susceptible portions of northeast Nebraska, where dry tall grasses prevail, and dead vegetation below short green grass continues to allow for rapid fire spread.

A shortwave disturbance will ripple through the region Thursday evening, accompanied by a weak cold front, bringing lighter winds back to the forecast area. A few models hint at the potential for storms to fire near the front, over Central Kansas, and congeal into a cluster, glancing the southern half of the CWA Thursday evening into Thursday night. While deep layer moisture will likely be lacking, weak instability and 30-40 kts of bulk shear could be supportive of a severe gust and large hail.

Friday and Beyond...

Temperatures climb even higher Friday, ahead of the next approaching shortwave. Highs are forecast to reach the low and mid 90s, however they could be hindered slightly by lingering convective cloud cover. SPC keeps us highlighted in a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms Friday evening, with the potential for storms to develop along the cold front, progged to be near southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa. Large hail and gusty winds would again be the primary threats.

The cold front lingering over the region will stall as a low pressure system develops out of the southern Plains, Saturday. While the exact position of this boundary will likely be influenced by Friday evening's convection, storms will likely fire along it as instability pools in a pocket of 35-45 kts of deep layer shear. Supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds will again be possible.

An upper trough will dig into the northern Rockies Sunday, as the Southern Plains low is pushed northeast. A strengthening LLJ will drive severe storm development in the vicinity of the surface low Sunday afternoon and evening.

Some of the longer range models hint at another chance for severe storms as the upper trough ejects eastward over the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening.

It is worth noting that lingering convection from Thursday night could potentially effect storm chances Friday which in-turn would ripple through chances over the weekend. While Sunday and Monday currently appear to be the best chance for strong to severe storms, it would be best to keep an eye out for forecast updates if you have outdoor plans this weekend.

Temperatures will dip closer to normal next week after a weekend in the mid to upper 80s. An active pattern looks to continue through the upcoming week with multiple chance for additional showers and storms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly winds will increase overnight and into Thursday morning. Gusts as high as 30 to 40 kts will be possible at times.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ011- 012-015>018-030>033. IA...None.