textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Saturday and Sunday morning low temperatures will dip below freezing for many locations. Sensitive early season vegetation could be damaged.

- Dry conditions and gusty winds will lead to Very High to Extreme Fire Danger across northeast Nebraska into western Iowa Saturday afternoon and evening.

- A gradual warming trend begins on Sunday. Relatively warm, dry, and quiet weather will accompany this until our next potential weather system by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

After an active day of severe weather across much of the Midwest and Great Plains, much quieter weather is beginning to set in behind a strong cold front. Much cooler air is continuing to filter in late this evening on gusty northwest winds. Much of the area will see temperatures bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s with only portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa remaining above freezing by Saturday morning. With this in mind, portions of the area are under a Freeze Warning where significant greening of vegetation has begun. Temperatures will gradually warm into the 50s by Saturday afternoon. While the main shortwave from Friday will be well east of the area, the base of a broader trough will be passing overhead during the afternoon. This will support continued gusty northwest winds. These winds combined with relative humidity below 20 percent for much of the area results in Very High to Extreme Fire Danger for northeast Nebraska and portions of western Iowa. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the aforementioned area due to this. Winds will finally begin to weaken Saturday evening as surface high pressure builds across the region. Sunday morning starts cold once again, mainly in the 30s. Some locations north of Interstate 80 may see sub-freezing temperatures as well. Thankfully, a warming trend begins by Sunday afternoon.

Sunday afternoon onwards sees the return of warmer, but relatively quiet and dry weather into at least the middle of next week. Upper-level ridging will begin to build across the Great Plains as surface high pressure slides east of the region. Temperatures climb back into the 60s on Sunday, 70s on Monday, and 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of our next potential weather system. Late Wednesday into Thursday a large trough across the western CONUS begins to eject into the Great Plains. At this time, significant differences in the exact evolution of this system remain, but an active pattern appears likely. Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast with severe potential a possibility given the time of year. A cold front then appears to arrive by the end of the week into next weekend. More concrete details should be known as we move through next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast period. Expect breezy northwest winds after sunrise, persisting through 00-02Z, before decreasing as surface high pressure sets up to the south. A few models hinted at maybe a brief shower in the area today; however, with fairly dry conditions, any showers that are able to develop would most likely evaporate before reaching the ground (virga).

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ030-042>044- 050-051-065-078-088. IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043.