textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering drizzle/light rain this afternoon ends this evening.

- Windy conditions Tuesday with gusts of 35 to 50 mph, highest in northeast Nebraska.

- Winter weather may impact travel Friday-Monday with significant uncertainty in the details at this time. Stay tuned to the forecast for latest updates.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rain has largely moved off to the east this afternoon leaving behind some patchy drizzle through the rest of the afternoon. Satellite shows the upper-level wave currently centered over central Kansas. This will continue off to the east this evening, clearing out any lingering drizzle and low clouds.

What we're watching next is another upper-level wave currently moving into Wyoming. This system will develop a broad surface Low over the Northern Plains with a strong pressure gradient on the back side of the Low. Strong northwesterly winds are forecast to develop, pushing into our area tomorrow morning, and peaking through the afternoon. Expect winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph over northeast Nebraska, with noticeably windy but sub-advisory winds across the rest of our area. One thing to watch is that several of the models show potential to mix down a few gusts to 60+ mph in northeast Nebraska. For now going with a Wind Advisory only, but if this signal becomes more prominent, we may need to upgrade at least a portion of the Advisory to a Warning and possibly expand the Advisory.

Winds should start to relax Tuesday evening as the gradient begins to relax and we see the boundary layer become more stable not allowing the stronger winds to mix down to the surface. With colder air continuing to funnel in on the back side of this system, though, expect temperatures to fall into the low-to-mid 20s by Wednesday morning.

This will be the start of our cooler pattern ahead. The upper- level pattern shows a ridge building over the western Rockies midweek this week, only reinforcing northwesterly flow across the Central Plains, helping to keep cooler temperatures in place. Good news is we should remain dry Wednesday and through Thanksgiving as a surface High expands eastward across the Great Plains states behind the Tuesday system. Temperatures will remain flat with highs in the 30s to low 40s across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Overnight lows will drop into the teens to low 20s.

The western Ridge weakens Friday as a shortwave busts through across the Rockies. This will develop a surface low over eastern Colorado that will be our second system that moves through later this weekend. Up to the north on Friday we see another shortwave bring a clipper-type Low down out of Alberta helping to develop a band of frontogenetically-forced precipitation setting up from somewhere near central North Dakota southeastward along or just east of the Missouri River. With the cold air in place, this should fall as snow, leading to travel concerns across much of South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. It's still way too early to talk amounts as a small shift in the track of this system or where this band sets up will lead to exponentially different snowfall amounts, but the Probabilistic WSSI which utilizes a suite of ensemble forecast information shows a 20-40% chance of at least minor impacts from winter weather, and 40-70% chances from Sioux Falls southeastward into eastern Iowa.

We'll see another push of colder air move in behind this system Friday night into Saturday with highs on Saturday dropping down into the upper 20s to mid 30s. This is where models start to see significant differences in how it handles the surface Low that develops over Colorado. Ensembles are all over the place with its track, with some taking it northeast right across our area while others bring it across Kansas and Missouri. A more southerly track would lead to a better accumulating snow scenario while a more northern track could lead to a mixed-precip event for at least some of our area and the rest of our area fighting with dry air getting entrained into the back-side of the system. For now, gust going with generic PoPs from the ensembles which keep snow chances starting Friday through the weekend, even though there will likely be significant dry periods as well. Confidence is just too low to put any stock in the forecast beyond this period, so left the ensemble forecast in for Monday as well which keeps precip chances and cooler air in place.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Showers have mostly cleared to the east with only some lingering patchy drizzle/BR continuing over the next several hours reducing visibility. Low clouds with IFR cigs hold over the terminals with gradual improvement expected through the afternoon and evening. Slowest to improve will be KOFK where the wrap-around low cloud cover will linger the longest. May see cigs dip again a bit right after 00Z before improvement continues to VFR as the back edge of the low clouds clears the area west-to-east overnight.

Winds through the day today will stay primarily light out of the south or southwest and hold through the overnight hours. We'll see strong northwesterly winds push into eastern Nebraska from the northwest Tuesday morning, ramping up at KOFK around 12Z, and KOMA and KLNK around 15Z. Gusts will initially only be around 25 to 35 kt, but during the afternoon (beyond the TAF period) we could see gusts 50+ kts, especially in northeast Nebraska.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065. IA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for IAZ043.