textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds gusting to around 40-45 mph this afternoon may result in isolated areas of high fire danger in northeast Nebraska, particularly across cropland areas.

- Expect another warm day today with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

- Shower and storm chances increase this weekend into next week (60-80%). Temperatures cool Sunday onward with highs reaching the 50s and 60s by Tuesday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Sunday into Monday will see the remnants of the H5 longwave trof eject from the Four Corners area northeast toward the Central Plains. Increased mid-level forcing for ascent combined with southerly to southwesterly flow bringing in a stream of moisture should lead to more showers and storms. Northeast Nebraska looks to hit the jackpot, with 60 to 80% PoPs progged for most of Sunday and Monday. 13z NBM probabilities suggest areas along and west of a line from Columbus to Norfolk with a 50 to 70% chance at seeing an inch or more of rain by Monday evening. Probabilities for even a quarter of an inch taper off sharply with eastward extent, as Omaha and Lincoln see anywhere from a 20 to 30% chance for a quarter inch of rain.

The H5 disturbance and lingering precip will depart the area early Tuesday. Model spread starts to appear from Wednesday onward, with both timing and placement of mid level features varying amongst guidance. Most key in on another H5 wave ejecting from somewhere in the Intermountain West area toward the Dakotas, which could provide the impetus needed for more rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. NBM suggests chances remain low though at 20-30%. Temperatures during the long term will range from the 50s to 60s for most locations.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 551 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period. Southerly winds remain breezy this evening, at speeds of 12 to 20 kts and gusting as high as 20 to 30 kts. While gustier winds will linger at KOFK through the overnight hours, speeds should diminish at KLNK and KOMA by 04Z. LLWS will ramp up at all 3 TAF sites between 04-14Z Saturday. Models suggest a band of showers moving toward KOFK closer to 12z, but chances that the terminal will be impacted are less than 30%. Winds will remain below 12 kts, out of the southwest Saturday morning, before northwesterly with a frontal passage Saturday afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.