textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures hang on across most of the area this afternoon with widespread highs in the 80s and even low 90s.

- A cold front begins a cooling trend this evening. Fall-like weather returns by mid-week and continues into the weekend.

- There is a low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Tuesday afternoon and evening. More widespread showers and thunderstorms overspread the region Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A shallow cold airmass behind a cold front across the northern Great Plains has slowly crept into northeast Nebraska. Low clouds have kept temperatures in the 50s behind the front while temperatures are soaring through the 80s to even low 90s over the remainder of the area. It is expected that much of the area will experience one more day of upper 80s and low 90s heat before a cooling trend takes over once the cold front pushes through the remainder of the area this evening.

As a large, upper-level low pressure system moves into the Great Basin this evening, weak lee cyclogenesis takes place over eastern Colorado. This developing feature and the cessation of daytime heating helps push the cold front south of the area. Behind the front, cooler temperatures fill in, ranging from the 40s over northeast Nebraska to upper 50s to near 60 over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by morning. A few showers or isolated thunderstorm may develop along the cold front overnight with modest warm advection atop the front. This threat is low with only light amounts anticipated.

As the upper-low slowly moves east towards the Four Corners region, surface troughing keeps the cold front nearly stationary just south of the area on Tuesday. While portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa may warm into the 80s just behind the front, most of the area remains much cooler in the 60s to mid-70s. By late afternoon and evening, a leading wave associated with remnants of Rachel will help to initiate widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the Central Plains. The northern extent of this activity may clip far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa along and just behind the stalled front. A low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will exist, but the bulk of severe weather should remain to the south, ahead of the front. That said, an isolated damaging wind gust or large hail can't be ruled out. Rain and thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday near the front, but much of the area should remain dry.

By mid-week, cooler temperatures in the 60s fully settle into the entire region. At the same time, the upper-low begins to move out into the Great Plains bringing more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances to the area. Widespread rain chances should continue into Thursday as the upper-low moves overhead before we dry out as everything moves off to the east by Friday. Rainfall totals will be modest for most with less than 0.5 inch for many. A few locations over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa who see thunderstorms on Tuesday may receive upwards of an inch of rain.

Friday sees surface high pressure settle into the Great Plains. Temperatures only reach the 50s with the brunt of the cold airmass moving in. Temperatures drop out Saturday morning as 30s appear likely for the area. A potential first frost is on the table by Saturday morning. Temperatures gradually warm back into the 60s through the weekend with 70s beginning to return next week. The weather remains quiet and dry otherwise. Enjoy the Fall-like weather!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Cold front has passed all three TAF sites this evening, leaving northerly winds in its wake. Winds will end up close to 5-10 knots overnight. Cigs will lower over the course of Tuesday beginning at OFK around sunrise and around 11am at LNK and OMA. MVFR cigs are forecast at all three sites through much of Tuesday before improving in the evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, but likely to be south of OMA and LNK and therefore not mentioned in latest TAFs.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.