textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- 15-20% chance for some light rain showers Sunday afternoon. Highs warm to the mid 60s under cloudy skies.

- Good chance (90-100%) for showers and storms late Sunday into Monday morning. A few storms Monday afternoon and evening could become strong to severe for areas southeast of a line from Albion to Wayne, NE.

- Rain clears out early Wednesday, with low rain chances through the end of the week (20% or less). Temperatures remain in the 50s and 60s from Tuesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Today through Monday...

Skies will remain cloudy this afternoon as a deepening low pressure system approaches from the west coast. Strengthening warm air advection out of the south, ahead of the system, will help produce spotty showers and areas of drizzle later this afternoon and evening. Highs today will top out in the mid to upper 60s under the dreary conditions. Wide spread rain chances will continue to overspread eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa overnight, as low temperatures dip into the mid to upper 50s.

Southerly winds will increase ahead of the approaching low Monday morning, reaching speeds up to 35 to 45 mph. The push of warmer air out of the south will draw highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s, Monday, as showers and a few rumbles of thunder continue to move through.

Storm chances increase Monday evening, as up to 500-1000 J/kg of instability pools ahead of an approaching cold front. Moderate low level turning evident in forecast hodographs, as well as 40-50 kts of deep layer shear provide support for the development of strong to severe storms across far southeast Nebraska Monday evening. These storms could be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, given the low cloud bases and tightly wound Low pressure system. However, weak lapse rates and persistent dreary cloud cover could limit storm potential. For now, the SPC maintains a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for severe storms southeast of a line from Albion to Wayne, NE.

Monday Night through Wednesday...

The dry slot of the system passes over the region behind line of potential storms Monday night, giving most locations a brief reprieve from precipitation.

However, this will be followed by the deformation zone, during the afternoon Tuesday, bringing another round of rain. Winds ramp up as the backside of the low moves through, with northerly gusts up to 25 to 35 mph. Afternoon highs will be notably cooler, ranging from around 50 in far northeast Nebraska to the low 60s in southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa.

Showers exit the area to the northeast early Wednesday, with cooler temperatures lingering. Lows dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s Tuesday night will only rise into the 50s for most locations Wednesday.

Thursday and Beyond...

A second, weaker shortwave looks to move out of the Four Corners region through the Southern Plains mid to late week. This could bring a line of showers across far southeast Nebraska Thursday, however there remains quite a bit of disparities in timing and location of the wave with the deterministic models.

Overall, high temperatures are expected to remain in the 50s to low 60s, with overnight lows falling into the 30s and 40s through the end of the coming week. Any chances for rain beyond the Monday/Tuesday system remain low at < 20%.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Tricky TAFs continue as ceilings wobble between MVFR and IFR, with a few patches where the sun is able to make a brief appearance. Rain chances will increase this afternoon, through tonight, and into Monday ahead of an approaching weather system. A few thunderstorms will be possible, especially Monday afternoon and evening. However confidence in exactly when and where these storms occur remains too low to include a mention in the TAF at this point.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.