textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional shower and thunderstorm chances Monday through Wednesday. The highest chance (50-70%) is across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- There is a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening across portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- There is a chance for frost Wednesday and Thursday mornings, especially across northeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Today through Monday...

Mild temperatures prevailed overnight, with lows generally falling into the upper 40s and low 50s, a welcomed change from the freezing temps of the previous couple of nights. A weak cold front will continue to drop south through the region today, bringing winds around to the north. By noon, temperatures have warmed a few degrees more than yesterday, into the upper 60s and low 70s, despite the northerly wind shift. A few spotty showers tried to develop in the wake of this boundary, but rain struggled to reach the surface through a layer of moisture-starved air.

Rain chances will finally increase again as we head into next week. A low pressure system will sink southeast out of Canada, toward the Great Lakes, and pull another cold front through the region on Monday. Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm into the mid 70s and low 80s. Showers and storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the boundary during the afternoon and evening hours, with the best chance for rain (50-70%) across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. While instability may be limited by a lack of moisture, 40+ kts of bulk shear and steepening lapse rates could support a few strong to severe updrafts over southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa Monday evening into Monday night. However, our overall severe risk will greatly depend on how quickly the front moves south of our forecast area.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Lingering showers slide south of the forecast area Tuesday, as cooler air filters in behind the front. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 50s and low 60s.

Spotty precipitation chances (20-40%) return on Wednesday into Thursday, as a shortwave approaches from the southwest. CUrrently the best chance for rain, with this wave, looks to be over southern Nebraska, with the bulk of precipitation moving across Kansas.

An extra surge of cold air from the north will allow low temperatures to dip into the 30s Wednesday and Thursday mornings. The best chance for frosty conditions remains over northeast Nebraska. Highs are expected to stay in the 50s Wednesday, but return to the upper 60s and low 70s Thursday, as a ridge redevelops to our west. Temperatures will continue to be above average, in the 70s, through the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will remain out of the north behind the passing cold front today. Expect a brief period of light and variable winds overnight, before they return to the south ahead of the next approaching cold front Monday morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.