textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of strong storms will exit the area by 4 AM Friday. A few could produce gusty winds and heavy rain across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- Slightly cooler Friday into the weekend, with highs mostly in the lower to mid 80s.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night into Tuesday and linger through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Still some stronger storms working their way through the area with some 40-50+ mph gusts, but the severe weather threat is generally waning as outflow continues to surge southeastward ahead of the line. Storms should exit the area by 3-4 AM with guidance and satellite imagery hinting that we see a little patchy fog and low cloud development behind them as the anvil clears out into Friday morning. We'll remain under cyclonic flow aloft and on the back side of a surface low over IA through the day, with guidance suggesting potential for a few spotty showers, but nothing too impactful from that standpoint. Perhaps more noteworthy will be the strong northerly winds. Model soundings suggest at least 40+ kts at the top of the mixed layer. In addition, EPS guidance shows mean wind gusts of 40-50 mph with a 10-20% chance of exceeding 50 mph. Really it will come down to how deep we're able to mix, and given the expected cloud cover and precip, lean toward shallower mixing and slightly lighter winds, but still expect 40+ mph gusts at times. Current forecast has a few counties sitting right around Wind Advisory criteria, but given lower confidence in degree of mixing, going to hold off for now. Otherwise, we'll be much cooler with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Saturday will remain mild with dry weather expected as the trough/low push farther east and surface high pressure builds in. We'll start to warm back up Sunday with strengthening southerly flow on the back side of the high and upper level ridging building back in. Expect highs in the 80s to around 90 on Sunday, followed by mid 80s to mid 90s on Monday.

By Monday night into Tuesday, we'll start to see influence of a larger scale trough to our north while a cold front starts edging southward. Still a decent amount of spread on exact timing of when that front gets here, but when it does, it'll bring our next chance of showers and storms. Guidance also suggests it stalls over or just south of the forecast area, while several bits of shortwave energy slide through through the end of the week. So in general, expect a somewhat active week with on and off shower and storm chances with temperatures in the 80s in the northern part of the area and 90s in the south. Machine learning severe weather guidance also suggests at least some low end severe storm chances at times (5-10%), but still lots of details to work out between now and then.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings are building in this morning behind a departing precipitation shield. Restricted ceilings will remain in place across the terminals this morning before scattering and improving this afternoon. Southwesterly winds will quickly veer to northerly and increase in a speed behind a front this morning, gusting 25-35+ kts later this morning into the afternoon before gradually calming this evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.