textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of far northeast Nebraska through 9 pm for extreme fire conditions.

- Thursday will bring the potential for more fire weather concerns as gusty winds and low RH values will be in place over portions of the area.

- Low chances (20-40%) for showers and storms on Thursday with better chances for rain holding off until Saturday night through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Partly cloudy skies this afternoon with a cold front moving south across eastern Nebraska bringing a shift to northwesterly winds and breezy conditions this afternoon. Strongest winds will be in northeast Nebraska, combining with dry conditions to create extreme fire danger for these counties. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the counties where extreme fire danger is expected.

The upper-level pattern shows a ridge over the Inter-Mountain West with a weak trough moving across the Northern Plains. This trough is what is bringing the cold front through this afternoon. While we're seeing echoes on radar, dry conditions near the surface will dry anything out before reaching the ground.

As we go into Wednesday the ridge continue to shift eastward building into eastern Nebraska. Subsidence beneath the ridge will lead to clear skies with temperatures warming back into the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions once more with humidity dropping to 15-20 percent combined with dry fuels will lead to Very High Fire Danger for northeast Nebraska, but lighter winds will keep conditions from becoming extreme.

Thursday could bring extreme fire conditions back to northeast Nebraska as a trough moving into the Northern Plains will increase the pressure gradient across our area leading to stronger southerly winds Thursday afternoon. While southerly winds will be bringing in a little more moisture, humidity still is forecast to drop to 20 to 30 percent Thursday afternoon. This combined with winds gusting 30 to 35 mph, possibly as high as 40 mph in northeast Nebraska may lead to extreme fire conditions once again.

With the trough moving through we could also see a few showers or storms mainly in far northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. Moisture will be anemic, though, so expect most of anything to evaporate before hitting the ground, similar to what we saw this morning.

Upper-level pattern becomes more zonal starting Friday as a system over central Canada pushes the Jet Stream south while the Subtropical Ridge flattens the flow regime. This will keep weather fairly quiet while a strengthening low-level jet advects in very warm temperatures out of Texas and Oklahoma. This will warm up afternoon highs on Friday into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Over the weekend, a deepening upper-level trough moves into the PacNW, only reinforcing southwesterly flow across our area with summer-like temperatures expected to hold Saturday and Sunday. As the trough approaches on Saturday, we start to see moisture advect into the region from the Gulf. This combined with a shortwave ejecting east out of the trough brings a round of shower and storm chances Saturday night into Sunday. A more substantial trough brings an even better chance for showers and storm Sunday night into Monday.

Looking further ahead at the CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks, those looking for rain may be very interested to know that both outlooks show a wetter pattern setting up for next week. Model guidance aligns with this showing a much more active regime. We certainly could use more substantial rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Gusty northwest winds are beginning to relax this evening, falling below 20 kts by 01z before completely dropping gusts by 03z this evening. Cloud will also be on the decrease, with winds overnight generally staying out of the northwest and dropping to nearly calm for much of the morning hours into Wednesday. Winds will begin shifting southeasterly during afternoon hours while staying light and below 10 kts.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012- 016>018. IA...None.