textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow in northeast Nebraska and a light rain/snow max along the I-80 corridor will taper off from west to east this afternoon. Expect a few slick spots, especially on untreated roads and surfaces.

- Temperatures will fall sharply tonight, with Sunday morning wind chills in the single digits above and below zero.

- A brief warmup arrives early next week: highs climb into the 30s on Monday, then into the 40s and even low 50s on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow...

An upper-level shortwave trough diving south across the High Plains has spun up a surface low now tracking across north-central Nebraska as of early afternoon. Ahead of this system, warm air advection and frontogenesis have produced a north-south oriented shield of precipitation extending from southeast SD/northwest IA southward, gradually decaying as it approaches southeast NE. Precipitation type has been variable, with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in the far northern CWA to the upper 30s across southeast NE/southwest IA. Southwesterly winds gusts of 20-25 mph has also kept wind chills in the 20s to low 30s. Snow has been the predominant precipitation type across northeast NE, where 1 to 3 inches of accumulation is expected, though most of this has already fallen. This area has seen the most efficient snowfall rates, approaching 1 inch per hour, thanks to strong isentropic lift along the eastern NE/SD border.

Farther south, a transition zone has set up roughly along a Columbus- Wahoo-Omaha line, where a light rain/snow mix has been observed. South of this corridor, precipitation has fallen primarily as spotty, light rain. Any accumulating snow in this transition zone will likely peak at a dusting. Precipitation will exit from west to east through the rest of the afternoon and early evening as the surface low tracks southeast into northwest Missouri. A Winter Weather Advisory continue for portions of northeast NE and western IA through the afternoon. As temperatures fall this evening, refreezing of residual moisture may create slick spots, so use caution if traveling or walking on untreated surfaces.

Behind the departing low, cooler air will settle in, dropping overnight lows into the teens, with single digits likely across northeast NE and northwest IA. Wind chills will fall into the single digits above and below zero, with values as low as five below across the far northern CWA. Persistent CAA and lingering cloud cover will hold Sunday's highs to the teens and mid-20s. A brief ridge of surface high pressure will move in early Sunday before a mid-level shortwave crossing the northern High Plains pushes a warm front into the region during the mid-day. This may bring a brief round of flurries across northeast Nebraska Sunday afternoon (15-30% PoPs). QPF remains minimal, generally under 0.05", so accumulation and impacts are not expected.

Monday and Beyond...

An active upper-level pattern will persist through the work week, bringing fluctuating temperatures and a chance for late-week precipitation. The work week will kick off with a chilly Monday morning, as lows dip into the teens and wind chills drop to the single digits. Southerly low- level flow will help Monday's highs rebound into the 30s and low 40s, with a more pronounced warmup Tuesday as temperatures climb into the 40s and even low 50s across east- central NE. This warmer day will also feature breezy northwesterly winds, with gusts of 25-35 mph.

A shortwave passing to our northeast will sweep a cold front through the region late Tuesday, knocking highs back into the 30s for both Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation chances return late Wednesday into Thursday as a mid-level trough advances into the northern Plains and and sends a ribbon of vorticity across the area. Current PoPs peak near 30%, though GEFS and EPS/EPF-AIFS ensemble guidance continues to show a wide spread in placement and intensity of any associated snowfall at this range. One aspect with higher confidence is the cold air that follows. Temperatures will tumble behind the system, with Friday's highs only reaching the teens and 20s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low cigs are spreading southward this evening with MVFR cigs just now moving into KOMA and IFR cigs already in at KOFK. Expect IFR cigs at all the terminals by 05Z with cigs possibly bouncing between FL009-FL012 between 08-15Z overnight. Winds are also shifting to northerly as the cold front moves through, with gusts to 20-25kt likely at times overnight. Expect cigs to become predominantly MVFR as cigs gradually lift and winds ease Sunday morning. We'll see cigs break up and become scattered at KOMA and KLNK before they lift above FL020 by around 16Z. KOMA will hold on to cloud cover longer, with cigs lifting above FL020 around 17Z and staying MVFR through the afternoon. Winds will also be shifting back toward the east or even southeast by the end of the TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ015. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for IAZ043- 055-056.