textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous cold expected from Thursday night through Monday morning, with wind chills ranging from the teens below zero to as cold as 35 below zero. The coldest conditions are expected Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Snow chances (60-80%) return late Friday through Saturday, with the highest totals (2-4 inches) expected along the Nebraska-Kansas border, tapering off northward.

- Temperatures trend upward early next week, but values will remain below seasonal normals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Today and Tonight...

Surface high pressure has settled across the area overnight, resulting in calm conditions and low temperatures in the teens and single digits. The quiet pattern will be short- lived, however, as a cold front advances southward through the area during the day today. Ahead of the front, temperatures will rise modestly, but the timing of the frontal passage will influence afternoon highs. In northeast NE, where the front moves through prior to peak daytime heating, temperatures will only reach the mid 20s. Farther south toward the NE/KS border, highs will climb into the upper 30s.

Behind the front, a much colder arctic air mass will spill into the region as a strong arctic high builds to our north. Temperatures will fall rapidly tonight, with overnight lows dropping into the single digits below zero to as cold as 12 degrees below zero. These values will represent the coldest temperatures observed so far this season and are likely to be the coldest of the forecast period.

Additionally, a tightening surface pressure gradient behind the front will lead to wind gusts of 20-25 mph through much of the night, bringing dangerously cold wind chills values ranging from 20 to 35 degrees below zero, with the coldest wind chills expected across northeast NE. As a result, the Extreme Cold Watch for northeast NE has been converted to an Extreme Cold Warning. Elsewhere, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued from midnight through 10 AM on Friday.

Friday through Sunday...

Daytime heating will be largely ineffective against the arctic airmass and increasing cloud cover on Friday, with afternoon high temperatures only reaching the positive and negative single digits across the area. Even during the warmest part of the day, wind chill values will remain harsh, peaking only in the 5 to 15 degree below zero range.

Snow chances return during the latter half of Friday and persist into Saturday as two features influence the region. The first is a vorticity maximum pivoting southeastward out of the northern Plains, driving a swatch of light snow from the Nebraska Panhandle into east- central Nebraska by mid-afternoon Friday. This feature will eventually interact with a broader precipitation shield advancing northward from the southern Plains. The southern precipitation shield is associated with an upper-level low moving into the Desert Southwest, which is drawing an impressive swath of mid-level moisture across the southern Plains. Recent guidance has trended farther north with the northern extent of this precipitation shield, allowing snow to spread into portions of east-central NE and southwest IA.

Initially, dry low-level air will need to be overcome before precipitation becomes more widespread. As a result, PoPs increase gradually, peaking in the 60-80% range late Friday night into early Saturday morning. The arctic air mass will remain firmly in place through the event, with Saturday morning low temperatures falling into the single digits below zero. Wind chill values will generally range from 15 to 20 degrees below zero. The recent northward trend in cloud cover has resulted in a very subtle upward adjustment to Saturday morning lows as radiational cooling is limited.

Snow will taper off from north to south on Saturday. Some uncertainty remains with respect to snowfall totals, as model-to- model and run-to-run consistency remains relatively low regarding how dry air on the northern edge of the precipitation shield will evolve. The strong arctic high pushing from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest may act to limit the northward extent of the precipitation. Consequently, the highest snowfall totals are expected near the NE/KS border, with amounts decreasing northward. The latest run of the NBM indicates a 60-80% probability of at least 2 inches of snow across the southern half of the forecast area, with a 30-60% probability of at least 4 inches in the same area. These probabilities decrease northward, with probabilities below 20% along the NE/SD border. Expect further refinements in the norht-south place of these probabilities with subsequent forecast packages. Forecast QPF peaks near 0.20 inches along the NE/KS border, though snow- to- liquid ratios are expected to be relatively high, generally in the 15 to 20 range.

Following the exiting snow, Saturday afternoon temperatures will only reach the single digits. Overnight lows into Sunday morning will fall back into the single digits below zero, accompanied by wind chill values ranging from 10 to 20 degrees below zero. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to reach the teens.

Monday and Beyond...

Monday morning is expected to be the final occurrence in this stretch of low temperatures dropping into the single digits below zero, with wind chill values once again ranging from 10 to 20 degrees below zero. Temperatures will begin to gradually rebound thereafter as the arctic air mass slowly retreats. High temperatures on Monday are forecast to climb into the 20s, with readings potentially reaching the 30s on Tuesday.

This warming trend will be short-lived as another cooler air mass moves into the region Wednesday into Thursday. High temperatures during this period are expected to fall back into the 20s with lows in the single digits/teens.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with SCT-BKN clouds at or above FL070. Northwest winds currently at less than 10 kt are expected to switch to north and increase to 12-13 kt with gusts of 20-21 kt this afternoon or early evening with similar speeds continuing overnight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday for NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday for NEZ030-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday for IAZ043. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Friday for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.