textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-normal temperatures persist, with highs in the 50s and 60s today, warming into the 60s and 70s on Monday. Dry and windy conditions on Monday will bring areas of very high fire danger to eastern Nebraska.

- Continued warmth increases the potential for river ice breakup and ice jams. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers.

- Periodic precipitation chances (15-40%) return late Wednesday and continue into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tonight through Tuesday...

A pleasant afternoon is ongoing as upper-level riding remains in place across the south-central CONUS. A warm front that moved through the area earlier today has ushered in a renewed period of WAA, allowing afternoon highs to climb well above normal into the 50s to mid 60s across east-central Nebraska. Southerly low-level flow will return overnight and into Monday, supporting continued warming with highs rising into the mid 60s to low 70s. These values are roughly 30 degrees above early February climatological normals. Record highs will likely be challenged on Monday, including Omaha (63 degrees set in 1954), Lincoln and Norfolk (both 68 degrees, set in 1954).

Pockets of very high to extreme fire danger are expected across eastern Nebraska Monday afternoon as relative humidity values fall in the 18-25% range. Southerly wind gusts will reach the 20-30 mph range before a surface cold front moves through late in the afternoon, shifting winds to northwesterly. Have opted to bump winds up Monday afternoon, given that model soundings indicate 30-40 kts at the top of the mixed layer. Recent HRRR/RAP model soundings have trended towards much deeper mixing heights, potentially mixing towards 10kft with 40-50 kts at the top of this layer and bringing 30-40 mph gusts to the surface. The currently blended winds keep us just below Red Flag Warning criteria, though trends will need to be monitored to see if additional adjustments and fire weather headlines are warranted, particularly across northeast Nebraska. As the front pushes through (late afternoon for northeast Nebraska/mid evening for east-central Nebraska), RH will quickly increase, though modest subsidence behind the front will also bring an initial push of 20-30 mph northwesterly gusts.

Several shortwave disturbances will work to gradually damped the the ridge, resulting in cooler temperatures within the post-frontal airmass on Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to peak in the 40s, still approximately 10 degrees above average.

Additional concerns through the next few days will be the potential for ice jams as continued mild temperatures promote river ice breakup and movement. This increases the risk for ice to become lodged and cause sudden rises in water levels. Accordingly, a Flood Watch will remain in effect through Monday evening for the Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers. River gauges and observational reports will be monitored closely through this period.

Wednesday and Beyond...

From Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, generally zonal flow aloft will persist across the region as a series of weak disturbances pass through. Afternoon highs will largely remain in the 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows falling into the 20s to low 30s. These disturbances will bring periodic precipitation chances, with 15-30% PoPs returning late Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. Despite the extended stretch of PoPs, dry periods are expected to be more common than wet ones.

Available moisture and forcing for ascent with these systems appears limited, with the NBM indicating only a 40% probability of at least 0.05" of QPF through the work week. However, with overnight lows frequently falling below freezing, precipitation type will need to be monitored, as periods of light rain and snow are both possible. Long-range guidance suggests the potential for a more robust system to move across the central and southern Plains next weekend, though confidence in details remain low. Model consensus and run-to-run consistency continue to vary, with some solutions tracking the system across the southern portion of the forecast area and other keeping it entirely to the south. At this time, only about one-third of EPS/EPS-AIFS and GEFS/AI-GEFS members bring the system into the area, with 30-45% PoPs in place across southeast NE and southwest IA. Trends will continue to be monitored as the system approaches.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1031 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will continue under 12 kts, backing to southerly this evening. A few high clouds will pass by at FL250 through the period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NEZ016-017-031>033- 042>045-050>053-067. IA...None.