textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat continues Monday, with peak heat index values of 105 to 115 degrees.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday evening into early Tuesday, with isolated strong wind gusts possible.

- Temperatures settles back into the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday into the work week, with precipitation chances returning Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Tonight and Monday...

Another very warm and humid day unfolded beneath the persistent mid- to upper-level ridge. High temperatures reached the lower 100s at many locations, while continued low-level moisture transport and evapotranspiration maintained dewpoints in the upper 70s to low 80s. This resulted in peak heat index values of 115 to 120 degrees.

Under performing convection this evening should allow for minimal cloud cover into Monday morning, allowing another scorching day across the area. However, a shortwave disturbance rounding the ridge will drive a surface front southward through the region. Winds behind the front will shift from southerly to northeasterly, reducing low-level moisture transport and gradually lowering dewpoints, but bringing in wildfire smoke with some near-surface smoke expected to filter in through the day. Little temperature drop is expected behind the front, in fact, the drier air mass may warm efficiently during the day as a greater share of the available energy goes toward sensible heating. High temperatures will again reach the upper 90s to lower 100s areawide. Dewpoints will vary considerably across the area, remaining in the upper 70s/low 80s across southwest Iowa while falling into the mid 60s across northeast Nebraska behind the front. As as result, peak heat index values are expected to reach 110 to 115 degrees across southwest Iowa, with values generally near 105 degrees elsewhere. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with a Heat Advisory in effect farther north.

Monday evening into early Tuesday, another shortwave disturbance moving from the Front Range into western Nebraska will initiate a round of thunderstorms to our west, with activity progressing eastward. Instability will remain plentiful, though shear is expected to weaken as the storms approach the forecast area. Even so, forecast soundings show a favorable wind profile and DCAPE values near 1250 J/kg, supporting the low-end potential for isolated wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph if storms are able to maintain themselves into eastern Nebraska. PoPs currently peak at 15-30%.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The aforementioned shortwave disturbance will dampen the ridge and bring temperatures down on Tuesday, though highs will still reach the low 90s and remain slightly above seasonal norms. Dewpoints will also decrease into the upper 60s/low 70s. A few lingering showers may continued Tuesday morning before gradually diminishing.

For the remainder of the work week, highs will generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Additional shortwave disturbances rounding the ridge will bring periodic precipitation chances. Confidence continues to increase in a more widespread round of showers and storms Thursday into Friday as a stronger shortwave disturbances crosses the northern Plains. PoPs of 60-75% are currently in place, with the cloud cover keeping highs to the mid 80s. Potential exists for a few strong to severe storms, with GEFS and EPS based machine learning guidance painting a 5-15% probability from Nebraska into the Dakotas. We'll have to monitor how the details shake out as it approaches.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the TAF cycle with only some mid to high based cloud cover. While light south southeast winds under 12 kts are forecast early this morning, stronger winds from the southwest around 1,500 ft will result in a period of low level wind shear at all three terminals. Thereafter, a front will move in from northwest to southeast, switching winds to the northeast by the afternoon hours at terminals. KOFK may experience some brief gustiness in the afternoon hours too. There is a 15 to 20% chance for some scattered showers and storms clipping KOFK and KLNK after 03z, but probabilities remain too low for mention in TAF at this time.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045. Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045. Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056. Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056. Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ069-079-080- 090-091.