textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms continue tonight as a front moves through the region. Large hail, damaging winds, an isolated tornado, and heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop.

- Saturday's highs will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s with isolated showers and thunderstorms, before a slight cooldown and more widespread thunderstorms on Sunday.

- A pattern shift over the weekend will result in several disturbances moving through the region heading into next week. Daily chances for precipitation are expected for at least a portion of the area each day. Additionally, temperatures climb well into the 90s with potential excessive heat concerns.

UPDATE

Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

General lack of thunderstorm reports suggest storms so far have mostly underperformed. As storm coverage increases, storm interactions have been detrimental. Expect to see fewer severe warnings over the next few hours as flood concerns continue to grow.

Slow storm motions have left some areas with accumulations of 2-5" so far across parts of southern Lancaster and southwestern Seward County. The complex as a whole is meandering east with a slight northern component to its motion. As a result, flooding concerns for the Omaha metro are increasing.

Guidance continues to suggest this complex lasting through much of the night before dissipating around sunrise.

Have added some patchy fog to river valleys, especially in western Iowa by sunrise.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Several inches of rainfall occurred across portions of Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa Thursday afternoon into early this morning. This system is now moving east of the region, but has slowly pushed a front into the area. This front becomes the focal point for our weather this evening and tonight. In the meantime, a few elevated showers and thunderstorms linger over Northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa early this afternoon. Impacts from these should be limited with perhaps a brief downpour possible. Subsidence increases this afternoon behind the aforementioned system, resulting in clearing skies. Highs rise well into the 80s under the plentiful sunshine. With a cap in place, instability builds through the afternoon, likely exceeding 3000 J/Kg by evening. This instability, coupled with the front, and increasing westerlies with a passing disturbance support thunderstorm development by late evening.

With plenty of instability and sufficient shear an all severe hazards threat is expected. This threat should gradually lessen tonight as thunderstorm clustering and low-level stability increase. The threat transitions to more of a flash flooding concern. Many areas across Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa received 2-4" of rainfall already. An addition 1-2" appears likely for much of these same areas with perhaps locally higher amounts of 2-4" possible. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued through tonight with this expectation. Other areas, including Beatrice, up through Omaha, and into Pottawatomie County may also see significant rainfall, but lingering uncertainty on the heaviest band of thunderstorms and more limited rainfall yesterday casts doubt on widespread flooding potential at this time.

Heading into Saturday, a mostly dry day is expected for many as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and low 90s. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may sneak into Southeast Nebraska and Southwest Iowa later in the afternoon into the evening. Temperatures cool slightly on Sunday as more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in association with a trough lifting through the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley.

Beyond this weekend, a pattern shift takes hold. Mid-level ridging overspreads much of the central and eastern CONUS with troughing over the western CONUS. These changes support an increase in temperatures well into the 90s by the middle of next week, perhaps near 100 for some. This may lead to excessive heat concerns and will be monitored closely. With the trough to the west, a series of disturbances round the ridge and should support daily shower and thunderstorm potential for at least some of the area. As a result, it may feel closer to July then mid-June next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Light southeasterly winds are forecast this evening with the exception of where strong thunderstorm winds develop. Storms are most likely in the Lincoln and Omaha areas. Have kept KOFK dry through the TAF period. Expect the storms to be slow to move away from LNK and OMA once they develop. The 3-4 hour windows currently highlighting the threat of TSRA at LNK and OMA may not be long enough as the threat of storms will continue until at least midnight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. IA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ069-079-080-090-091.