textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures continue through the week. The hottest days look to be Friday and Saturday with heat indices up to 100-105.

- Additional severe storms possible Thursday evening, and Friday evening.

- Daily chances for showers and storms continue. Best chance of rain and storms waits for the evening of the Fourth of July.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Inhibition proved to be too strong this evening, with the anticipated convection that was scheduled for after 7 PM fizzling out over the past few hours. We do still have some mechanisms for ascent overnight, mainly in the form of low-level jet nosing across northeast Nebraska into northwest Iowa, but even then, only a few scattered showers have been the result. Newer runs of the HRRR have jumped on board with the lack of storms, and now wants to carry that trend through the overnight hours, keeping the lid on the sufficient shear and instability that is there. Out best chance at any showers or storms will come from the southwest, as a few sub-severe storms could get carried northeastward by the southwesterly steering winds, but capping will also limit that potential.

Storm chances tomorrow are becoming increasingly murky as the evening forecast fizzles out. Much of the 00z guidance was banking on one or more clusters of storms forming leading into Thursday, so we'll have to wait for 06z CAMs to join the HRRR in a newer look at the daytime forecast. The latest runs of the HRRR do depict a much drier low-level environment compared to today (about 5-8 lower dewpoints), making for a very hard hill to climb for any hopeful updrafts trying to reach convective initiation. Model soundings do depict healthy mid-level moisture, making overly warm temperatures hard to sell. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, low-level mass fields do increase confluence across the NE/IA border region, making elevated overnight storms possible as the low-level jet ramps up, but with drier low-levels, that may prove difficult once again.

Friday and Beyond:

Mid/upper heights are on the increase Friday and Saturday as a pattern change settles in for the Central Plains. Southwesterly flow that had lobbed shortwaves and nocturnal convection our way will switch to zonal flow, with rain chances continuing to clog up the forecast. Highs on Friday are set to continue the warmth in the lower 90s, with apparent temperatures maxing out in the 95-105 degree range. Those apparent temperatures take a 5 degree dip based on the latest data for the Fourth of July, with both days still representing the higher-end heat numbers that could easily be thwarted by poorly-times showers and storms. Still no promises for a dry holiday Saturday, but models are placing the best chances for widespread rain to the east of the area, likely giving us breaks in the action for outdoor festivities if we do end up having some shower activity.

Sunday onwards trends drier precipitation-wise, as a mid/upper ridge takes shape over the central CONUS and wards away widespread rain/storm chances to the north and south of the forecast area. This will mean that heat will continue, but strong to severe chances recede back west towards the High Plains through the first half of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions tonight with the return of low-level wind shear overnight. Winds around 10kt at the surface will rapidly increase to around 40-45kt around 1800ft, impacting all three of our terminals across eastern Nebraska. We'll see the low-level jet weaken Thursday morning ending the low-level wind shear concern around 14-15Z. There is potential for a band of showers or storms moving through mid-morning as a remnant of storms currently moving into south-central Nebraska. Very uncertain that these showers/storms will hold together as they approach so not including these in this TAF package. The chance for evening storms is lower as well (20%), with better chances north in southern South Dakota. For this reason, very little in the TAFs beyond LLWS this morning. Will likely see lLWS return this evening but probably beyond this TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.