textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday through Wednesday, with the highest chances (50-70%), across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible Monday evening across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with hail and wind the primary hazards.

- Frost will be possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings, especially across northeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1108 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Tonight and Monday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this evening places a broad mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern majority of the CONUS, with a split flow pattern developing to its west. At the surface, a weak cold front passed through the area today, though the passage had little effect on temperatures as afternoon highs rose into the 70s. Overnight, a weak shortwave disturbance pivoting across the northern Plains will drag rain showers towards the area. The bulk of this activity is expected to decay before reaching the area, though a few sprinkles and gusty winds may approach northeast Nebraska with the collapsing showers. PoPs currently peak at 15%. Overnight lows are expected to dip into the 40s.

Monday, the aforementioned upper-level trough will begin to sag southward into the central and northern Plains, helping to push a more potent cold front southward through the area. Afternoon high temperatures will be dependent on if the front passes through before peak daytime heating. Values in the low 70s are expected across northeast Nebraska, while areas along and south of Interstate-80 are expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Winds will shift to northerly with gusts of 20-30 mph behind the front.

During the late afternoon and evening, thunderstorm development is expected along the front as forcing for ascent increases. Bulk shear is expected to reach 35-40 kts with MUCAPE topping out around 750- 1000 J/kg, bringing the potential for a few strong to severe storms. The primary hazards will be hail (up to 1.25") and damaging wind gusts (up to 65 mph). The main question will be where the front is located by the time convection initiation occurs. Latest CAM guidance keeps storms confined to far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, potentially even south of the NE/KS state line.

Isolated to scattered showers are expected to increase in coverage behind the front Monday night into early Tuesday, with PoPs currently peaking at 50-70%. Rainfall totals are expected to peak around 0.20" in southeast Nebraska, decreasing northward.

Tuesday and Beyond...

The remainder of the period will generally by encompassed by zonal to northwesterly flow aloft as a broad trough persists over the eastern CONUS. The post-frontal airmass and continued CAA will be felt on Tuesday and Wednesday, as afternoon highs are expected to peak in the upper 50s and low 60s. On and off light rain chances persist through Wednesday as a diffuse front stalls across the area, primarily for southeast Nebraska where PoPs linger at 30%.

Frost potential will return to the area Wednesday and Thursday morning, primarily in northeast Nebraska as overnight lows dip into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures will gradually warm Thursday into the weekend. High temperatures on Thursday are expected in the upper 60s to low 70s, increasing to the widespread 70s on Friday and Saturday. A few on and off light rain chances (PoPs 15-30%) persist as weak shortwave disturbances slide across the area, though dry periods will largely outnumber wet ones. Severe weather potential remains low through the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period with increasing clouds around 7000-10000 ft agl and perhaps a few showers as a front moves through the area. Can't completely rule out a brief dip to MVFR visibility with any heavier showers. Also, highest chances for any thunderstorms should stay south of the TAF sites, but still give it a 10-20% chance. Winds will be out of the northwest to north, with gusts of 20-30 kts this afternoon, before speeds drop below 10 kts this evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.