textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog and drizzle will linger this morning near and east of the Missouri River.

- Windy today with gusts of 35 to 50 mph across much of the areas. Portions of northeast Nebraska could see occasional gusts near 60 mph, where a High Wind Warning is in effect.

- A band of snow is expected to bring travel impacts to parts of the area Friday into Friday night, with the highest chances (40-60%) in northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa. Questions remain on exact location and snow amounts at this time.

- Winter weather may continue to impact travel Saturday into Monday though confidence in details remains low. Keep up to date on the forecast as we go through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 408 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Early morning analysis showed a shortwave trough just starting to push into the Dakotas with an area of surface low pressure in northeast NE/southeast SD. A cold front stretched southwestward from the low and was just about to enter Knox county. Ahead of the front, there was widespread low clouds and some patchy dense fog. Behind the front, winds were starting to pick up, with 30-45+ mph wind gusts in portions of central and western NE, and even a few 55+ gusts as you move toward the panhandle. These winds will continue eastward through the day with fog clearing out as they move in. 40+ mph gusts are expected across much of the forecast area through at least the afternoon, with some locations in northeast NE into west- central IA expected to see continued gusts into this evening. In addition, expect some enhanced gusts across northeast NE where model soundings show 55-60+ kt winds at the top of the mixed layer this afternoon, with 50+ kts through a good chunk of the layer. Combined with fairly strong subsidence and cold air advection, these stronger winds should reach the surface at times with a few 50-60 mph gusts at times. Furthermore, EPS mean wind gusts in portions of northeast NE top 60 mph, so ended up having the confidence to issue a High Wind Warning for these areas. Farther southeast, winds aloft won't be quite as strong this afternoon, so kept as a Wind Advisory and added roughly a row of counties on the southeast edge. One thing to watch will be potential for the strong winds to last longer into the evening than currently forecast, as winds aloft will remain strong and model soundings show us staying fairly mixed. However, raw wind gust guidance does taper speeds off a bit this evening.

Along with the wind, we could see some light snow wrap around the back side of the low and clip far northeast NE (15-30% chance in Knox and Cedar counties). If we do manage to get a stray heavier shower, visibility could briefly become poor due to the wind, but latest short term guidance is in fairly good agreement that most of this will stay about a county to our north. Otherwise, temperatures today should top out mostly in the 40s, though it can always be tricky with strong cold air advection.

The surface low will push east and deepen across MN/WI this evening and overnight with surface high pressure building in for Wednesday and Thursday. This should lead to quiet weather both days, but we'll stay cool with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Guidance is in good agreement that some weak shortwave energy will slide southeast through NE Wednesday night, potentially bringing a quick dusting of snow to some locations. However, a vast majority of solutions keep this to our southwest.

Attention then turns to snow chances for Friday and Friday night as additional shortwave energy approaches with a decent band of frontogenesis setting up somewhere across SD into NE and/or IA. Still questions on how far north/south the band will be and how much snow it will bring. In general EPS/ECMWF solutions are farther north than GEFS/GFS/GEPS. GEFS suggests a 50% chance of at least 1" along and northeast of a line from Norfolk to Omaha, while the EPS has that line more through Yankton, Sioux City, and a county or so south of Des Moines (the same Norfolk to Omaha line would be about 20% in this case). For what it's worth, model consensus suggests roughly 3- 5" in the very center of that band (2-3 counties wide) wherever it sets up, but there are certainly some outliers as is typical of these frontogenesis-driven bands.

Following the band Friday, there's starting to be a little bit better agreement that precipitation becomes more widespread in the area Saturday as the actual shortwave gets here and a surface low spins up over eastern CO. There will be some dry air to overcome on the southwest side of the Friday/Friday night band leading to questions on precip amounts, but guidance suggests it should fill in eventually. Precip type also remains uncertain and will depend at least on track of the surface low and resulting temperatures Saturday. Solutions range from mostly snow (southern track) to snow in the north, rain in the south, and a mix in between (northern track).

Beyond Saturday, forecast confidence really decreases with guidance kind of split between two camps. One suggests strong amplification of a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS with a cutoff low developing over the Desert Southwest, keeping us in southwest flow while additional shortwave energy slides through and gives us continued snow chances Sunday into Monday (e.g. 25.00Z GFS). The other would suggest the trough is not nearly as amplified and we stay under zonal flow with surface high pressure largely keeping us quiet (maybe a weak bit of shortwave energy slides through and gives us flurries). So really the big question is, do we see most of our snow and potential travel impacts come to an end by Saturday evening, or do they continue Sunday into early next week? For now, have 30-40% chances on Sunday, but these will almost certainly change in the coming days. If you have travel plans after Thanksgiving, make sure to keep a close eye on the forecast. Otherwise, we do have a little more confidence that even colder weather is on the way, with weekend highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s and perhaps even some highs in the teens by Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility will clear from west to east early in the period, with patchy 1/4 to 1/2 SM visibility in some spots. Once it clears, expect several hours of VFR conditions before additional MVFR ceilings push in from the north this afternoon/evening. Still questions on how far south they'll reach, so kept mentions at OFK and OMA, but will need to monitor potential at LNK. Otherwise, the main story is that winds will quickly pick up out of the northwest this morning, with gusts of around 35 to 45 kts at all TAF sites into this evening. There is potential OFK could even see 50+ kt gusts at times. Winds will gradually weaken overnight, but 20-30 kt gusts are expected to linger into Wednesday morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for NEZ015-018- 033-034-044-045-051>053-067-068-091-093. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for NEZ012-015-018-032>034. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-016-017-030-031-042. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ043>045-050>053-065>067-078. IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for IAZ043-055-056-069.