textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs reach the 80s today with a small chance (15-20%) for some showers and storms this afternoon.

- 50-70% chance for some showers and storms overnight, with the highest chances across northeast Nebraska. Storms may be strong to severe with gusty winds and small hail.

- Active pattern continues Thursday and Friday with chances for showers and storms (50-80% chance for much of the area). A few storms may be strong to severe both days.

- Brief lull in storm chances Saturday before resuming Sunday (30-60%) and Monday (40-60%). Temperatures remain warm in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Main features of note early this afternoon were a surface boundary stretching from north-central SD into the NE panhandle and a compact mid-level low over the TX panhandle. Both features will lead to thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening to our west, with a line of storms associated with the boundary being the most likely to bring us any impacts. While we'll have plenty of instability in our area ahead of said line, shear will remain fairly weak so expect outflow to be racing out ahead of the line by the time they get here (most favored timing around 9-11 PM) with a general downward trend in intensity. However, still a shot for some stronger to severe storms as they first move into northeast NE with various CAMs indicating potential for pockets of 50-60 mph gusts. However, before we get there, afternoon temperatures have risen into the upper 70s to lower 80s and are within a few degrees of convective temperatures, so we may see some spotty shower and storm development over the next few hours in our area like we see to our west and south (15-20% chance).

By mid to late Thursday morning, the shortwave energy associated with the aforementioned low/trough to our southwest will slide into the forecast area. In addition, we will likely have lingering outflow from the overnight line of storms along with strengthening moisture transport pointing into the area. With all of that, additional showers and storms look likely through the day on Thursday (50-80% chance for most of the area). Once again, deep layer shear will be on the weaker side (20-30 kts in the 0-6 km layer) so storms will once again be a little disorganized and with storms expected to start early, instability may be limited. However, both appear to be sufficient for perhaps strong or severe storms once again and a few pieces of guidance hint at some decent low level hodograph curvature which could yield a sneaky tornado threat, especially given low LCLs. In addition, guidance shows precipitable water values in the neighborhood of 1.75" with warm cloud depths approaching 4 km. As a result, storms will also be efficient rain- producers and could lead to some localized flooding if an area receives repeated rounds.

The severe weather threat for Friday appears to be a bit higher as some stronger mid to upper level flow finally pushes in, giving us some slightly stronger shear with an unstable airmass setting up ahead of an incoming cold front. While destabilization and storm initiation may be delayed owing to morning convection/lingering clouds, most guidance suggests we'll erode that cap through the afternoon and storms will fire by the evening. With ample instability and shear sufficient for storm organization, we'll see a threat of large hail and damaging winds, with an outside shot at a tornado should storms remain surface based in vicinity of the front where low level hodograph curvature is maximized.

Mid to upper level ridging looks to build in for Saturday and should favor most locations staying dry, though some shortwave energy approaching from the southwest and temperatures approaching convective temperatures (highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s), can't completely rule out some spotty afternoon showers and storms once again (10% chance). The ridge quickly moves off to the east on Sunday as the aforementioned shortwave moves through the area and brings us a 40-60% chance of showers and storms by Sunday afternoon.

We'll stay under southwesterly flow aloft well into next week with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s with various bits of shortwave energy sliding through and giving us almost daily shower and storm chances. Still lots of details to be worked out there, but given the warm and humid air mass staying in place, we'll likely have several chances for strong to severe storms. Various severe weather machine learning algorithms give us at least a 5-10% chance of severe storms each day, though higher potential appears like it will be to our west where stronger mid to upper level flow will be in place.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at the terminals.

KLNK: A line of strong but sub-severe thunderstorms is slowly making its way northeast across southern Nebraska this evening. On its present trajectory, these storms are expected to be impacting the terminal after 1Z while showers also move in from the west. Winds will become variable as the line moves through. Kept a mention of showers and storms in the vicinity of the terminal through around 09Z as there will be potential for additional storms near KHDE and KPHG to move into the area.

KOFK: A few showers are currently moving northeast into KOLU and KBVN. These showers will move into the vicinity of the terminal over the next 1-2 hours. An isolated rumble of thunder cannot be entirely ruled out. The better chance for storms will be closer to the 03-05Z timeframe for onset as ongoing convection between KANW and KONL continues on its easterly trek. These storms may become strong to marginally severe as they move in. Shower/storm chances continue overnight, with a break in the action tomorrow morning.

KOMA: For now, TAFs are VFR with southerly winds around 12-16kts. Showers and storms are currently located over KJYR and KHJH, expected to lift to the northeast over the course of the next few hours. At their current speed and trajectory, this would put storms potentially moving into the vicinity of the terminal between 03Z and 05Z. There will be a chance of off and on showers/storms through the overnight hours, with lower chances 20-30% after sunrise.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.