textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional storms expected overnight tonight into Sunday. Potential for isolated damaging winds and large hail.

- A summer-like pattern sets up next week keeping warm and muggy weather in place with additional daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week.

- Potential for hotter temperatures next weekend and beyond, with daily chances for showers and storms continuing through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A line of storms has moved into southeast Nebraska this evening, associated with a trough axis stretching from Oregon east across Nebraska. These storms are moving into an environment with weaker shear though with sufficient elevated instability for hail up to quarter-size. 00Z CAMs have come in predicting this line will mostly dissipate over the next few hours, with redevelopment as the trough axis arrives closer to 1-3am over northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. Again, we could see some damaging wind and hail threat, but with limited shear the severe weather potential should remain low.

Storms should mostly clear our area after daybreak on Sunday. Mid-level dry air advecting in should limit coverage of additional showers and storms through the day on Sunday as we stay in a fairly baroclinic pattern near the nose of a jet streak stretching from central California east into western Nebraska. This jet streak shifts north on Monday as we start to see ridging build up over the Central US. As high pressure builds we see precip chances drop off and clearing skies on Monday. Moisture streams up the west side of the ridge, generating showers and storms across western Nebraska and Kansas on Monday evening, developing into an MCS. Confidence is low on how this convective complex will evolve and track this far out, but we could see some potential storms overnight Monday night into early Tuesday if it tracks east into our area.

As we go into next week, we see the west-east trough axis from Sunday cut off, holding in place and spinning, forcing ridge development to shift eastward into midweek. Tuesday, the evening storm development sets up across Central Kansas and Nebraska with potential for an overnight MCS tracking into our area from this development. Wednesday-Thursday the ridge shifts far enough east that the belt of moisture sets up over our area. This means afternoon/evening storm development over our area.

Toward the end of the week we see a potent jet streak and upper-level trough push into the PacNW. This finally forces troughing over the Intermountain West eastward, dampening the ridge and forcing it eastward over the Tennessee Valley. We've seen an interesting shift in the pattern going into next weekend from previous forecasts, now seeing ridging set up farther north going into next weekend with southwesterly flow setting up over the Central Plains. If this occurs, while we will still see significant warming with temperatures likely climbing into at least the upper 80s-low 90s, storm chances will continue going into next weekend with some potential for severe weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Generally VFR conditions start the forecast period with scattered showers and thunderstorms pushing across the terminals. Patchy MVFR conditions are present under heavier showers. Showers will clear over the next few hours as ceilings decrease, bringing MVFR conditions to all terminals later this morning.

Confidence is low (40% chance) in an additional round of showers and storms pushing northward, potentially impacting KOMA and KLNK, between 30/10-15Z. This chance has been left out of the current forecast package, amendments will be made as needed. Southeasterly winds will persist at 12-14 kts with isolated stronger gusts possible as storms pass through. Ceilings will break up and improve after 13/12Z, bringing a return to VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.