textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday continuing on/off through Friday.

- Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Today and Tonight...

Surface high pressure settled into the region overnight, with clear skies to prevailing and little to no wind. This, in turn, allowed temperatures to plummet into the mid and upper 30s over northeast Nebraska, and mid 40s near the Kansas/Missouri borders by sunrise this morning.

High pressure will slide east, as a weak upper level shortwave and associated cloud cover moves in from the southwest. A few spotty showers struggled to move east from central Nebraska, as more abundant deep layer moisture remained just west of the forecast area. Moisture is expected to finally shift eastward this evening, allowing for a better chance of rain reaching the surface along and south of I-80, over southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa (15-30%) tonight into Thursday morning.

Temperatures will rise back into the upper 50s and low 60s this afternoon and Thursday. Lows will remain slightly warmer than this morning, under southerly return flow, only dipping into the low and mid 40s.

Thursday Night and Beyond...

Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, as a trough digs into the western CONUS out of southern Canada. While the exact track of this system is still a bit uncertain, models continue to keep the more potent instability south of the Kansas border. Though a couple rumbles of thunder will be possible, severe storms appear unlikely at this time.

A weak cold front looks to pass through the region late Friday/early Saturday as the trough lifts northeast, but is quickly followed by high pressure building into the desert southwest. This will push warmer air back into the plains for the upcoming weekend. Highs will rise from the 60s on Friday into the low 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. Mid to upper 80s look probable for the Memorial Day holiday through the first half of next week.

Dry conditions will prevail Sunday through Memorial Day, before on and off shower and storm chances return to the forecast as a few weak waves ripple through the upper flow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions are favored through a majority of the forecast period. Calm east-southeasterly winds will continue into the overnight period with increasing mid-level cloud cover around FL100. A few light rain showers are expected (25-35% chance) south of KLNK overnight. A scattered cloud deck at FL025-030 is expected to develop at all terminals into Thursday morning. However, cloud cover is not expected to become widespread enough to produce MVFR ceilings. Later Thursday morning, southwesterly winds will increase to 12 kts with MVFR ceilings spreading northward, impacting KLNK. Rain chances overspread the terminals just beyond the end of the forecast period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.