textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm through the remainder of the week.

- A mixture of rain and snow (40-60% chance) arrives into northeast Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, with any snow staying to the northeast of a line from Albion to Plattsmouth before exiting by 10 PM.

- Highs continue climbing through the remainder of the work week, peaking Friday in the 60s/70s, before cooler temperatures and additional shots at precipitation return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a potent mid/upper shortwave pushing southeastward from Ontario into the northern Great Lakes region, squashing the ridge to its southwest and steering northwesterly flow into eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Drilling down to the surface, a recent hand analysis has a surface trough extending from northern Kansas into southeast Nebraska before arcing up into Minnesota, bringing a warmer westerly component to the winds thanks to gentle downslope flow. Snowpack continues to gradually melt away with the warmth, but it is still greatly affecting temperatures where the heaviest snow fell. Along that stripe, highs are only forecast to top out in the upper 30s in western into central Iowa, while 40s and just over 50 degree highs will be the peak (not to mention the mid-to-upper 50s to the north and south of the band). What this snowmelt is also doing, is increasing the amount of moisture in the lower boundary layer. Though it has to counteract dry air advection at the surface, this increasing moisture has already pushed dewpoints above the forecasted low for overnight. As a result, patchy fog formation is possible -- especially for snow- covered areas (20-30% chance).

Once the sun rises, any patchy fog that does develop will dissipate and we'll see cloud cover increasing in anticipation of the pain weather-maker for the first half of the forecast. At the surface, you'll be able to track a surface low tracking from northeast Wyoming to south-central Nebraska. As far as precipitation goes, short-term models favor two areas -- one staying as rain and kept close but just northeast of the surface low, and the other as a largely snow along the Nebraska/South Dakota border into far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The overall lift in the column will largely be centered between the strong warm air advection and positive vorticity advection from the impinging shortwave, intersection the dendritic growth zone at roughly 550 mb. Overall QPF has decreased with recent model runs, but the location of the precipitation has shifted southward over recent runs of model data. Focusing on the northern area, most of any precipitation should fall as snow (especially north near the SD border and into Iowa), but the strong WAA in the low levels will push a shallow portion the profile to around 32 degrees. This will eat away at snowfall potential on the southern flank, but could still provide enough ice to make elevated surfaces, sidewalks, and some bridges slippery. Farther to the north, travelers heading north on I-29 will need to slow down for the half inch that falls in far northwest Iowa.

Timing things out, dry air will get beat in northeast Nebraska just after noon, while better rain/snow chances make it to eastern Nebraska/Iowa closer to 5 PM. From there, any additional rain/snow is quickly swept southeastward by 10 PM. While amounts on the ground and in rain gauges won't exceed 0.1", sub-freezing temperatures will make any wet surfaces slick with black ice.

Thursday and Beyond:

Thursday through the remaining forecast has us back on the see-saw for high temperatures, climbing to close out the work week before being taken down a few pegs this weekend. Highs in the 50s/60s Thursday turn to 60s/70s Friday, with increasing winds and some fire potential if we're able to work away soil moisture from the snow. Into the weekend, a pair of shortwaves are still on track to push through Saturday and Sunday, the latter of which appears to be our next chances for rain/snow, depending on when it arrives. Beyond that, model solutions diverge into next week, with decent potential for active weather through mid-week shortwaves shed themselves off of a California coast cutoff low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Weakening north winds this evening become light overnight. A gradual veering of the winds towards the east then southeast is expected through the morning into the early afternoon on Wednesday. An approaching weather system results in lowering ceilings with time but ceilings remain VFR. Rain and snow begins to enter the region by the end of the TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.