textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A storm system will impact the region today and tonight, bringing the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms to the southeastern part of the CWA.

- Wintry precipitation will also impact the forecast area today into tonight. Expect the potential for slick roads.

- A gradual warmup is expected over the weekend and into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper trough slightly to the northeast of the Four Corners region and southwest flow over eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. A cold front continues pushing across the OAX CWA this afternoon, bringing northwest winds and colder air into the region. Ahead of the front, temperatures have made it into the 60s and 70s. Behind the front, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and 40s.

Regarding the severe weather potential for this afternoon/evening: The main area of concern will be for areas ahead of the front, where instability is decent and ML lapse rates are 7+ C/km. There is still a bit of uncertainty over where this will set up. The cold front has been moving at a good clip through the area today. Right now, extreme southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa would potentially see the best shot at having large hail, gusty winds and an isolated tornado. CAMs are showing the possibility of a few post- frontal storms developing in the cooler air. While a couple of these may become strong to severe, the further away from the front it becomes, the less likely this will hold true.

Regarding the winter weather potential for today/tonight: fog and stratus remain entrenched across northern Nebraska this afternoon. We are looking at the possibility for some freezing rain or possibly freezing drizzle to develop later this afternoon into this evening. Temperatures will continue to fall, leading to the potential for precipitation leaving a light glaze on surfaces. Flash freeze conditions may also occur. Several counties across northeastern Nebraska were put into a Winter Weather Advisory which will go through tomorrow morning. A light glaze of ice to a few hundredths of an inch will be possible with this system. Precipitation will eventually change over to light snow with the potential for a trace to around one inch. On top of any ice on roads, this will potentially create hazardous travel conditions.

Split flow develops Saturday with the northern split coming across Nebraska and Kansas. The southern split attempts to recede southwestward, toward the Baja Peninsula. Expect a gradual warming trend with temperatures returning to the 60s and 70s by Monday afternoon. Expect dry conditions during that timeframe.

Heading into mid-week, a shortwave trough drops in from the north, bringing a chance for cooler weather and precipitation to the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

IFR ceilings are observed over all terminals late this afternoon as scattered showers and storms enter the area from the southwest. Have refined timing of TEMPO group for -TSRA at KOMA and KLNK to account for latest convective trends. KOFK will see a period of light freezing rain after 01z before a gradual transition to light snow. Model guidance suggests IFR/MVFR ceilings lingering a bit longer so have adjusted departure time to about 13-14z. VFR conditions prevail by the afternoon hours for all sites.

Winds will remain gusty from the northwest with gusts of 25 to 30 kts. Winds largely subside by the afternoon to 12 kts or less.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for NEZ011-012- 016>018-030>033-042-043. IA...None.