textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Very high to extreme fire danger today in northeast Nebraska with winds gusting 25-35 mph and RH in the teens. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 7 PM.

- Shower and storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday, with the highest potential for severe weather being in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa on Tuesday.

- Expect summer-like temperatures Sunday through Tuesday, with many areas reaching the 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

We have light showers this morning across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa as a weak open-wave Low interacts with the low-level jet mostly to our southeast. Up in northeast Nebraska stretching southwest into east-central Nebraska we have a very distinct dryline with model soundings showing significant low- level dry air west of the boundary allowing for more efficient mixing of winds down to the surface. While breezy across our entire area, boosted wind gusts in this area of northeast Nebraska where soundings indicate we could see gusts 30 to 35 mph this afternoon. With gusty winds and dry conditions with humidity dropping to 15 to 20 percent in northeast Nebraska, we'll see dangerous fire conditions develop this afternoon. For this reason we have a Red Flag Warning out for areas expected to see the most extreme conditions.

Overnight tonight we'll see the low-level jet continue to shift off to the east with the dryline shifting slightly eastward into more of eastern Nebraska. This will limit shower and storm potential significantly going into Monday with ensembles now in fairly good agreement that we stay dry through Monday afternoon and evening. With a greater portion of eastern Nebraska seeing humidity drop to 15 to 25 percent (essentially west of a line from Thurston south through Beatrice) we'll have to watch wind gusts again tomorrow. While guidance has weaker winds across these areas toward central Nebraska, we do see gusts 25 to 35 mph across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa leading to some potential for fire weather concern on Monday afternoon.

Tuesday we see a open-wave system start to develop and deepen over portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. As this occurs, we see the moisture plume (low-level jet) retreat back westward pulling some of that moisture from areas to our east back west into our area. This combined with the advancement of the associated warm front northward into our area will bring back chances for showers and thunderstorms, perhaps a few severe across far eastern portions of our area. Instability and low- level shear just on the warm-side of the advancing front could lead to large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a tornado or two. The better threat for severe weather will probably be to our southeast, however, with our window being fairly short due to the anticipated track of the surface Low. We predict storms to develop near Falls City north along the Missouri River and strengthen mainly as they move out of our area.

Wednesday we see the arrival of the upper-level trough bringing additional chances for showers and storms but again the severe potential looks mostly to stay southeast of our area. With greater cloud cover and weaker warm-air advection into the region, Wednesday will be a bit milder with highs back down into the mid 70s.

A transient ridge moving through on Thursday will bring another break in the rain chances with temperatures warming back into the low-to-mid 80s Thursday afternoon. Friday we see the arrival of a stronger cold front associated with the advancement of a strong upper-level trough moving out of the northern Rockies into the Plains. This could bring another chance for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon and evening.

Dry, cooler conditions look to move in over the weekend as High Pressure sliding south out of Canada moves into the Great Plains behind the cold front. Highs drop down into the upper 40s to mid 50s for Saturday with some recovery back up into the low-to-mid 60s for Sunday. Ensembles linger shower chances through Saturday afternoon, but this is likely an artifact of uncertainty in timing of the aforementioned cold front discussed Friday afternoon and evening. Once the front moves through, dry air should shut down any rain chances through the rest of the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Clear skies this afternoon over northeast Nebraska with a few scattered clouds over Norfolk along the fringe of the clouds to the southeast. KOMA and KLNK remain socked in with cigs generally around 3500-4500 ft. There remains some scattered lower clouds with cigs around 2500ft that occasionally are thick enough to bring brief periods of MVFR cigs at KLNK and KOMA. Conditions should predominantly stay VFR however. Winds through this afternoon will remain breezy out of the south or southwest, gusting to 30kt. Expect clearing skies toward 00Z this evening as clouds move off to the east and winds dropping to around 7-12 kt for the overnight hours. Skies stay mostly clear overnight into Monday morning with winds picking back up out of the south gusting 20 to 25 kt through late morning.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012- 016>018. IA...None.