textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy drizzle and fog continue overnight, gradually dissipating in favor of gusty winds Wednesday morning into the afternoon

- A cold front arrives during the afternoon hours, with a low- end severe threat developing after 6 PM from western Iowa to to northeast. Better chances for rain fill in early Friday through Saturday.

- Strong storm system moves into the region early next week, bringing another round of showers Monday into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Fog has developed across portions of north central Nebraska this morning, resulting in visibility of one quarter mile or less in some locations. As a result of continued concerns for low visibility due to fog and travel considerations, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Antelope, Boone, Pierce and Madison counties.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Tonight into Wednesday:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows broad troughing in place over the western CONUS as a few mid/upper vorticity maxima pivot through the flow. To the east, much of the central into eastern CONUS continues somewhat languid southwesterly flow. Nighttime cloud phase imagery highlights the lower clouds that hold areas of drizzle, and areas of clearing that let the early evening radiational cooling result in some patchy fog develop, primarily near Nebraska City and points to the northeast into west- central Iowa. Models have been very slow to catch on to the lower visibilities, with increasing warm air advection helping to stir up a bit more lift for increasing cloud cover and potentially some warming. Some areas of fog may persist through the initial half of the overnight hours, but this area could drift northeast as cloud cover builds back in and the areas of clearing stay ahead of it. That broad warm air advection has also helped some lighter returns on radar develop near Lincoln and points north, largely in the form of drizzle.

By daybreak tomorrow, much of the cloud cover outside central into northeast Nebraska will mix out, with swift southerly flow arriving to the area as the surface pressure gradient tightens in anticipation of a shortwave trough passing to the northwest of the area. Winds gusting to 25-35 mph are expected with a bump in surface temperatures, keeping us well above normal temperature-wise for this time of year. Lingering moisture is also available ahead of the impinging cold front associated with the shortwave trough, working with the frontal lift and mid/upper height falls to result in shower and thunderstorm development across far eastern South Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota. The lively kinematics pair with the limited instability to create a limited severe storm threat. The overlap of the best instability and forcing remains largely northeast of the area, but we're still under the gun of a few weaker showers and storms as the cold front pushes through from 6 PM to midnight. If we do see a storm reach higher intensities, damaging hail and wind are the primary threats with any tornado threat remaining to the northeast where the main surface low and warm front track. Otherwise, another day full of temperature contrast between northeast NE and southeast NE/southwest IA is on tap, though the wind will keep many from spending a ton of time enjoying time outside.

Thursday and Beyond:

Wednesday's cold frontal passage moderates temperatures into Thursday, leaving the stark contrast between northwest and southeast behind in favor of temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. Much of the day is anticipated to be dry as high pressure follows the front, with additional cloud cover arriving from the southwest Thursday afternoon and evening that will hold increasing chances for light rain and drizzle into the overnight hours. These rain chances only increase into Friday as a shortwave emerges from the Southern Plains, ejecting north- northeast towards the Great Lakes region over the weekend. With rain chances and their associated cloud cover remaining in the forecast, highs in the upper 60s settle in for the weekend, while still remaining above normal for this time of year (which is around 60 degrees). Both trick-or-treaters and bonfire havers will be watching if we'll have a break in the rainfall Halloween evening, with models suggesting that we are more likely to be rainy than not (though recent deterministic runs are trending drier). It'll be a good idea to have umbrellas and rain boots at the ready regardless for any young'uns roaming the streets in search of treats.

The story of the upcoming work week continues to be dominated by at least one cutoff low that deepens over the central CONUS, slowly drifting eastward as it is followed up by deepening shortwave troughs moving through the amplified pattern. The evolution of the system is wildly different between each model system, with strong winds and at least one shot of healthy rainfall expected at a minimum. Ensemble members across the board continue to downplay any hopes for snow, and the better thing to watch will end up being locations that see the deformation band of rainfall as the system pivots and slows down. Areas that do see the longer period of healthy rainfall will see rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches due to the sheer duration of the moderate rainfall. With no slam dunk PWAT values in the area, flash flooding remains a pretty limited threat. Uncertainty only increases through the week, with the best signal being a period to dry out in as ridging builds from the Intermountain West late in the work week/weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

KOFK: Dense fog has developed across central and north central Nebraska this morning, spreading east. Expect a few more hours of dense fog and low ceilings. IFR ceilings persist through around 18Z with visibility gradually improving. Heading into the afternoon and evening, expect a significant decrease in cloud cover and possibly a few hours of clear or mostly clear skies. South winds will transition to westerly this afternoon before becoming northwest this evening.

KLNK/KOMA: LLWS will be possible through around 15Z at the terminals. Expect VFR conditions through most of the forecast period. Dense fog has developed in central Nebraska and is spreading to the east. Some patchy fog may develop in low-lying areas, but significant impacts to the terminals are not currently expected. Clouds will decrease heading into the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will transition to westerly this evening and north-northwest to north overnight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ016-017- 030-031. IA...None.