textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional showers and thunderstorms are possible through early Wednesday, with the highest chances (50-70%), across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa tonight.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with hail and wind the primary hazards, though higher chances will remain to our southeast.

- Frost will be possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings, especially across northeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Early afternoon analysis showed a cold front pushing south through the area, moving through Omaha as of around 130 PM. Satellite imagery showed a few cumulus clouds starting to puff up along the boundary, with coverage expected to start increasing as we go through the afternoon. Looking downstream, there's around 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in place over far southeast NE/southwest IA, so may eventually get some storms to go up later this afternoon. However, with quite a bit of low level dry air in place (surface dewpoints in the 30s and 40s), it seems like it'll be awfully tough to get much in our area compared to where there are 50s dewpoints near and south of Kansas City. Still, if we do get something, there may be just enough deep layer shear for an organized storm capable of hail and strong winds, especially given the inverted-V soundings and plenty of DCAPE.

Behind the front, guidance continues to indicate light on and off showers tonight into Tuesday as an upper level trough sags south and some shortwave energy pushes in from the west. The dry air does remain in place, so again, it doesn't look like it'll amount to much. Maybe a few hundredths of an inch for most and perhaps up to a quarter inch near the NE/KS border before it exits Tuesday night. Otherwise, temperatures behind the front will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday and lows in the 30s to lower 40s Tuesday night and Wednesday night. As a result, could see some frost formation in parts of the area, with potential for another freeze in northeast NE (freeze would likely be Tuesday night).

The split upper level flow pattern we're currently under will get closer to phasing up toward Wednesday as the cutoff low off the CA coast pushes eastward and a wave swings south out of Canada. As a result, there will be a shield of precip that develops over CO, but guidance continues to suggest it will slide by to our south through Thursday. However, we'll remain under northwesterly to zonal flow aloft with several bits of shortwave energy sliding through at various times and giving us on and off shower and storm chances. Still lots of spread in timing and exact track, but last ensemble guidance favors Saturday night into Sunday as our next best chance for precip (30-50% chance). Temperature-wise, we'll start to warm back up Thursday, with mid 60s to lower 70s followed by widespread 70s Friday and Saturday. Guidance favors a slight cooldown with the precip on Sunday, but still mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 531 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions are favored throughout the forecast period. Northerly winds will continue to gust at 20-28 kts before gradually calming under 12 kts by 05/05-08Z. Mid- and upper- level cloud cover will increase through the evening as scattered showers develop across the area. The best potential for rain showers (50% chance) will be at KOMA and KLNK after 05/05Z, though the exact timeframe of showers may need to be amended as they approach. A brief period of MVFR conditions can't be ruled out under any heavier showers. Confidence is lower in showers reaching KOFK (30% chance), with virga a more likely outcome. Rain chances decreases after 05/12Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.