textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and milder conditions are building into the area for the weekend.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return by late Monday night into Tuesday and linger through at least Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 846 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Satellite shows the unseasonably deep surface low spinning to our east generating the gusty winds across our area this evening. We'll see surface winds weaken as the boundary layer decouples over the next few hours, though winds should stay around 10-15 mph overnight out of the north. Skies will be clearing of clouds over the next several hours, but we'll also see wildfire smoke out of Canada and the Pacific Northwest get pulled in leading to hazy skies for the next few days.

Looking at the upper-level pattern, the trough associated with the Low to our east will slide more east into the Ohio River Valley over the weekend. Meanwhile, ridging builds into the Central Plains leading to warming temperatures over western Nebraska. The good news for us is that the ridge axis never really pushes through keeping the heat to our west. Because of this, we'll maintain milder temperatures through the weekend into early next week with highs in the lower 80s on Saturday and mid-80s to low-90s Sunday and Monday.

A trough moving out of the Gulf of Alaska pushes into interior Canada squashing down the ridge and bringing a front through on Tuesday. This will bring our next chance for rain starting late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This front appears to stall across our area triggering additional chances for showers and storms through Thursday as shortwaves aloft interact with this front. Machine Learning products from NSSL suggest some potential for severe weather as the front initially arrives on Tuesday, but a better threat with the shortwave triggering storms on Thursday that finally pushes it out of our area. A lot of details still to work out, so just monitor these periods for now.

Confidence in forecast trends beyond Thursday drops off quite a bit going into the end of the week next week as a fairly baroclinic pattern appears to set up over the central CONUS. Ensemble guidance trends back warmer which seems reasonable for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

MVFR ceilings are gradually improving to VFR from west to east late this evening. KOMA should return to VFR between 05-07Z, with VFR conditions then expected at all terminals through the remainder of the forecast period.

Northerly winds will decrease below 12 kts at KOFK overnight, while gusts of 18-22 kts persist at KOMA and KLNK. Winds will strengthen again late Saturday morning before falling below 12 kts at all terminals Saturday evening. Wildfire smoke will move in overnight leading to hazy skies, though significant visibility reductions are not expected.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.