textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty 25 to 30 mph winds expected for most areas Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 15-20% chance for some storms Friday evening, some of which could be severe with large hail and strong wind gusts.

- Active pattern continues with more storm chances this weekend into much of next week. Some storms could be severe Saturday evening and again Monday.

- Highs reach the 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday, followed by a brief warm up Monday, then cooling down to the 60s to low 70s Tuesday through Thursday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Rainy conditions should carry over into Sunday with areawide PoPs of 60 to 80% forecast as the H8 baroclinic zone swings northeastward.

By Monday morning, should see an intensifying shortwave trof eject from the Montana/Alberta area east northeast toward the Dakotas/Manitoba. The feature will spawn another sfc low that tracks north of the area, while the sfc front swings through most of the Northern Plains. Ahead of the frontal feature, expect gusty 30-35 mph southwesterly winds across the area. A plume of 500-1,000 J/kg of instability will also overspread the area, and combined with sfc convergence along the front, could see more convection develop. Strong to severe convection could develop, but it's worth noting that the bulk of 0-6 km shear is located near to just behind the frontal boundary and not collocated in the best plume of instability. Better H7-H5 midlevel forcing appears once again focused in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota area. Some guidance does hint at a subtle wave trekking through the Central Plains during the day which could help provide more large scale lift. At this time, PoPs of 60 to 80% are forecast for most of southeast Nebraska into western Iowa Monday evening into Tuesday.

PoP chances continue into Wednesday and Thursday as we remain in a zonal to slightly southwesterly flow and continued disturbances ride it. Temperatures in the long term will range from the 70s to low 80s Sunday, followed by a brief warm up Monday to the 80s and low 90s, then cooling down to the 60s to low 70s (yay, fall!) Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. South winds this morning increase in speed this afternoon. OMA and LNK may see afternoon gusts up to 20-25 kts and OFK up to 30 kts. MVFR ceilings and fog have remained south of the area and are not expected to cause any aviation impacts locally. Afternoon cumulus between FL070-FL080 is anticipated. A cold front will move into northeast Nebraska this evening. Thunderstorms may form near the front and OFK, but confidence remains low in this scenario. Any thunderstorms should be isolated with only a low chance of aviation impacts (15-30%).

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.