textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Another dense fog advisory has been issued for much of eastern NE for Thursday morning. - Light precipitation chances begin continue today through Friday night. It should be all drizzle/rain with no wintry precipitation expected. QPF amounts less than 1/4 inch expected.

- Cooler temperatures and our next chance for precipitation arrives early next week. Rain/snow mix possible Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Today through Sunday...

Despite model soundings indicating low visibilities were imminent last night, most metar sites east of a Wayne to Lincoln, NE line held onto at least 3 SM through midnight. By 2 AM visibilities had finally begun to drop slightly in these eastern Nebraska counties, therefore decided to let the Dense Fog Advisory to continue to ride through the morning. Temperatures falling just under freezing could lead to a few slick spots with the fog in far northeast Nebraska early this morning.

In addition to the fog, patchy light drizzle is expected to develop this morning over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, in an area of upper level diffluence to the north of a low pressure system traversing the southern plains. Thankfully, temperatures rising into the mid and upper 30s will keep any drizzle in a liquid state. Patchy drizzle chances will continue to overspread the forecast area throughout the day, with patchy fog redeveloping this evening. Eventually, drizzle transitions to rain showers early Friday, as the upper low passes through the Missouri River valley. Warm air advecting into the region tonight will keep temperatures above freezing, and push highs into the the mid to upper 40s for Friday, preventing any rain from transitioning to snow or ice.

The rain chances move out Saturday morning. Rainfall totals will remain light, Thursday through Saturday, averaging around .05" to .25". Saturday afternoon highs will be well above normal, in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We end the weekend with dry conditions Sunday, and highs again very mild in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Monday and Beyond...

Models continue to indicate a disturbance moving through the region Monday and Tuesday. The trend for falling temperatures appears to be delayed a bit with the latest runs. Highs are forecast to be in the 40s and low 50s again Monday. By New Years Eve, temperatures will dip closer to normal, in the low to mid 30s. If this trend continues, we will likely see some sort of a rain/snow mix, but could favor a bit more rain than snow with the slower arrival of cold temperatures. Overall, confidence in the timing, precipitation type, and location of precipitation still remains low this far out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Similar to the past couple of days, IFR to LIFR flight categories are expected to persist through the forecast period. Current IFR ceilings at KOMA and KLNK are expected to transition to LIFR within the next hour or so before recovering back to IFR by early afternoon at all terminal locations. A return to prevailing LIFR conditions is expected by this evening. Visibilities may continue to diminish through 15z before improving from late morning into this afternoon. Brief periods of drizzle are possible; all of which should remain liquid as temperatures are expected to stay above freezing. Southeast winds will continue at 5-11kt.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ012-015>018- 030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...None.