textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming through the work week with widespread 80s, followed by some 90s by Thursday/Friday.

- Warm and breezy conditions could lead to increased fire danger on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.

- Mostly dry this week, with only small rain chances Monday night/Tuesday (10%) and hit and miss chances Thursday into the weekend (15-30%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tonight and Monday:

Water vapor imagery this evening features a familiar mid/upper pattern, with troughing centered over the eastern third of the CONUS, northwesterly flow across the central third, and a shortwave trough pushing further into the Pacific Northwest. Looking locally, the bank of clouds spurred on by warm air advection earlier in the day has since fallen apart and continued its move to the south. It was able to muster a few observations of trace moisture, but has since diminished as the small amount of instability near 700 mb has vanished, allowing the cloud field to dissipate. A slow- moving wind shift/weak front extends from central Nebraska into southern Iowa, gradually pushing south while facilitating calm and variable nighttime winds that will work to increase cooling overnight.

Things start to get more interesting tomorrow as a low-level thermal ridge builds to the west of the area, winds turn southerly, and high temperatures trend well above normal. Forecast soundings depict a tall and well-mixed boundary layer during the afternoon hours, driving down surface moisture and working downward columnar winds that are strongest near 750 mb. Highs during the afternoon top out in the low-to-mid 80s, driving minimum humidity values to the upper teens to twenties while gusts reach 30 mph during the mid-to-late afternoon. We should see gusts delay for a bit, before a jet streak to the north and its associated surface low comes in closer proximity to the forecast area, ramping up winds. Surprisingly, the usually more docile NBM has the strongest winds when compared to the HRRR/RAP, signaling that the depth of the boundary layer may limit the ceiling for our gusts, but those speeds will still send a good chunk of the forecast area into very high fire danger. As we begin cooling down tomorrow evening, those winds may not let up, carrying into the overnight hours while becoming more sporadic as they fight a rather weak nocturnal inversion.

Tuesday and Beyond:

Cooler temperatures are on tap Tuesday, with the aforementioned surface low bringing with it a cold front that will shift winds northwesterly while a strong surface pressure gradient persists for the day. This front won't be terribly potent, only knocking highs down a few degrees into the upper 70s to mid-80s, with stronger winds compared to Monday. These northwesterly winds are set to hit 35-40 mph during the afternoon hours, while humidity values bottom out in the 15-25% range. If these conditions hold in the forecast, we'll be gearing up for another very high to extreme fire danger day for a larger section of the forecast area due to the stronger winds. One thing that could disrupt fire potential to some degree is the chances for elevated, post-frontal showers/sprinkles that are being depicted by several of the extended CAMs tomorrow afternoon.

Fun Fact: Northeast into south-central Nebraska has been picked on quite a bit this year with regards to increased fire danger. For the period of Jan 1 to May 10 (initial transition season), KLNK has had the most days with a minimum RH under 20% ever this year, where KOFK has had the 3rd most ever.

Winds lighten up Wednesday as high pressure in the low levels follows the front to the southeast and tracking through our neck of the woods. Highs will reach near to just above 80 degrees, making for a great day to be outside in the warmth. Highs shoot up Thursday into the weekend, with a preview of summer coming in the form of highs in the upper 80s to potentially over 90 degrees. We will also trend windier for the extended forecast, with Thursday being the breeziest of the bunch with 45-50+ mph on the table during the afternoon hours. This will be our greatest fire danger day as it stands, staying consistent with the previous forecast. Those hoping for rain will find little to dig us out of the hole we've been in, with total QPF totals for the next 7 days not expected to reach 0.25".

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Light winds currently will gradually increase out of the south and southwest later this morning. Winds will continue to increase in speed this afternoon with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts. Scattered high- based cumulus may also develop around 12 kft this afternoon and evening. A strong low-level jet develops late this evening. Area-wide LLWS can be expected as a result of this tonight. Gusty southerly surface winds continue through the end of this TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.