textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Very high to extreme fire danger today in northeast Nebraska with winds gusting 25-35 mph and RH in the teens. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 7 PM.

- Shower and storm chances remain through Wednesday, with the highest potential for severe weather being in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa on Tuesday.

- Expect summer-like temperatures Sunday through Tuesday, with many areas reaching the 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Latest guidance overnight has trended toward stronger winds staying in place for longer in northeast Nebraska today. Model soundings in the area show fairly impressive mixing to above 700 mb with winds at the top of the mixed layer of 30-35 kts. In addition, EPS guidance shows at least an 80% chance of 30+ mph wind gusts northwest of a Wayne to Norfolk to Albion line. With guidance still in good agreement of RH values dipping into the teens, elected to issue a Red Flag Warning from noon through 7 PM for a handful of northeast Nebraska counties. Should stronger winds trend even farther south, may need to tack on a few additional counties.

In addition, short term guidance has also trended toward little to no precipitation in the area this afternoon as the primary moisture transport axis and shortwave energy look to slide by to our east. However, we'll still need to keep an eye on potential for a few showers/storms along an eastward pushing dryline this afternoon. The big question will be if convergence along said dryline can overcome capping. If it can, guidance suggests there would be plenty of instability to work with, along with 25-35 kts of 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear to yield an isolated strong to severe storm threat. For now, give it about a 10-20% chance of storm development this afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The forecast period begins with a few lingering showers moving across southwestern Iowa. These should exit the region before midnight. CAMs show a possibility of a few additional showers overnight and early into Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be mild, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s.

A broad area of low pressure will be in place over Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Dakotas heading into Sunday morning. A mid-level shortwave trough lifts through the region Sunday afternoon, bringing lift to the area. With WAA and moisture also advecting into the region, we could get some additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning, but especially into the afternoon and early evening hours. The area remains in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Expected highs will top out in the mid-70s to mid-80s in the afternoon. Minimum RH value will fall into the 20s for northeastern Nebraska Sunday afternoon; however, the stronger winds that could reach RFW criteria will not be co-located with the areas that have the lowest RH values.

Monday will be quite summer-like in temperatures. Expected highs will reach the low to mid-80s across the region. Monday afternoon, RH values will fall into the mid-teens to mid-20s for more of the region. Expected wind gusts are currently forecast to be below criteria in areas with the lowest RH values. This will be something to continue to monitor in the coming 24 hours. Another shortwave trough will lift into the region, bringing a chance for shower/thunderstorm activity. Should any thunderstorms find a way to develop, they could become strong to marginally severe.

Tuesday brings another shortwave trough lifting from the Four Corners up into north central Kansas and south central Nebraska by Tuesday evening. Highs will range from the mid-70s to mid-80s across the region. Expect additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could become strong to severe.

Wednesday through the end of the extended forecast, a series of disturbances will loft into the region. This will lead to the potential for some periodic showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period, though we could see some occasional MVFR ceilings around 2500 ft at OMA and potentially LNK this morning. Otherwise, expect passing mid to high level clouds. Mostly southerly to southwesterly winds will gust 20-30 kts into the afternoon, though OFK should see a period of more westerly winds this afternoon. All sites will return to southerly wind by late afternoon/early evening, with speeds remaining under 12 kts through the remainder of the period. Finally, can't completely rule out some light showers or an isolated storm today (10-20% chance), though higher chances should remain east of the TAF sites.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-016>018. IA...None.