textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is likely tonight into early Sunday morning, especially for areas near the Platte River Valley.

- Stretch of hot and dry weather will last through at least the upcoming week. Heat indices will be around 100 at times.

- Patchy fog may develop again few mornings this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Tonight:

Water vapor imagery this evening continues to feature a dominant, broad mid/upper trough parked squarely across the CONUS while convective activity across southeastward from northeast Oklahoma through the Tennessee River valley. Zooming in locally, we find ourselves on the southwestern periphery of a ridge of high surface pressure that has already worked to quiet winds and increase cooling this evening across the area. Evapotranspiration (specifically from growing corn) has been hard at work to increase surface dewpoints through the day into the lower 70s across much of the area, setting us up for another night that could end with a foggy sunrise. Overnight lows are set for the mid-to-upper 60s, which are 5 degrees below current dewpoints. Areas that can push that far past their late afternoon/early evening dewpoints represent our best chances for fog overnight, especially if those locations also see light winds.

Sunday and Beyond:

Once morning hits and the fog has dissipated, temperatures will quickly start their climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s as the ridge only builds in strength going forward through the rest of the week. Another feature that illustrates the increasing temperatures is the low-level thermal ridge that currently resides up and down the High Plains before arcing into the Northern Plains, that will also slowly creep eastward to also force temperature upwards. With a lot of the steering mechanisms for modern forecasting relying on bias correction from data over the past few weeks, increasing evapotranspiration is not captured in that correction. With that said, we had very minor moisture advection over the course of the day, with very little of that coming from the traditional source regions such as the gulf. Even still, dewpoints either overperformed or reached the highest values of all guidance today, increasing 5+ degrees from morning values at most locations. This is all to say that if our current handle on high temperatures for the week is solid, over-performing dewpoints could further increase heat indices above what the current forecast holds.

Looking at rain chances over the upcoming week, we'll have to rely on remnants from the High Plains, whether it be an MCV that is steered southeastward from Montana or Wyoming or an MCS that powers in from the northwest. The bulk of the more predictable activity will continue to stay south of the area -- decreasing the likelihood of daytime clouds and increasing confidence in the heat that we are forecast to see. Heat is normal this time of year, and the folks of Nebraska and Iowa know that the humidity can make things dangerous, with heat indices this week reaching over 100 Thursday through Saturday. Areas most impacted by heat will be the Omaha/CB Metro, Lincoln, and far northeast Nebraska, where the highest temperatures will be, and the warmest low temperatures will be, limiting recovery from the heat.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Very patchy fog has developed across portions of the area this morning. OFK is currently at MVFR visibility due to this. Any fog should dissipate over the next couple hours. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with light southeast winds. An afternoon cumulus deck around FL060 can be expected.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.