textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Nightly frost chances tonight through Friday night. Highest potential for widespread frost and a freeze in some locations will be Thursday and Friday nights.

- Occasional spotty shower and storm chances (under 30%) at times through this weekend. Highest potential will be this evening, Thursday afternoon, and Sunday afternoon.

- Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Friday, then warming into the 60s and 70s Saturday into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this evening features brisk zonal flow across the southern third of the CONUS, while more lax, northwesterly flow fills in from Canada. Zooming into the local area, KOAX radar imagery is littered with weak returns as showers and a stray rumble of thunder move east-southeast towards Iowa spurred on by weak warm air advection and PVA from incoming shortwaves. We've enjoyed a cool but comfortable stretch of weather, with temperatures set to fall into the low 40s to upper 30s and an outside chance at frost overnight across northeast Nebraska. While winds are generally lax as of now, they are poised to fall into line out of the northwest and increase in speed slightly to 5-10 mph overnight and limit our overall frost potential. In addition, cloud cover will keep the area from having too efficient of radiational cooling and could further disrupt frost formation. By sunrise, any remaining shower activity should be east/northeast of the area and well into Iowa as another cooler day takes shape and tops temperatures out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Joining those temperatures will be additional chances for sprinkles and slightly gusty winds that will reach 20 mph through the afternoon.

Thursday Night and Beyond:

Heading into the overnight hours, surface high pressure will be working its way southeast from the Northern High Plains, helping to usher in weak winds and tamp down cloud cover compared to the night previous. With that in mind, overnight lows Friday morning will respond to the more efficient radiational cooling, resulting in temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s. The combination of the winds and cold will make for a favorable environment for frost formation, a setup that further moves in Friday night as well, potentially necessitating a Frost Advisory if the lack of clouds holds in short- term models. During the daytime hours, we'll see daytime showers making the most of the steep boundary layer lapse rates but struggle to form anything locally, focusing instead just to the northeast where some instability could be realized thanks to better low- level moisture. Heading into the overnight hours, high pressure moves squarely overhead to help reinforce another night of frost as mentioned above.

Saturday afternoon brings a warming trend into the forecast, brought about by a slight pattern shift as a building ridge to the west increases mid/upper heights over the area. Highs are set to reach the mid-to-upper 60s during the afternoon hours, with little surface moisture recovery compared to our rainier previous week. Relative humidity values during the afternoon will push down into the lower 20s for portions of eastern Nebraska, with overall fire danger being curbed by lighter winds and the continued greenup that the area has undergone over the past three weeks. Continued warming then follows heading into next week, as the mid/upper pattern softens the north- northeasterly winds and progresses what remains of the ridge eastward, being shooed/diminished by a cutoff low headed for the Great Basin. Rain chance don't look great to this point, but the combination of that cutoff low and the timing of a compact shortwave shooting southeastward from Alberta/Saskatchewan will try to phase together and overspread the area with rainfall Tuesday/Wednesday as a deeper longwave trough takes shape (with plenty of differences as to what it will eventually look like).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. SCT high clouds this morning with a weak front shifting winds to the northwest over the next hour at the terminals. Winds will become predominantly northerly later this morning, increasing with gusts to 20kt through the afternoon. We'll see increasing clouds around FL060 going into the afternoon which will clear out this evening. Winds relax this evening, shifting to the west or southwest later tonight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.