textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Light precipitation ending in southwest IA by midnight or shortly thereafter.

- Warmer Thursday into Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s. Breezy and dry, leading to very high danger both afternoons.

- Turning colder this weekend with snowfall chances increasing to 50-70% by Sunday. Some accumulation is possible, potentially leading to travel impacts (20-30% chance).

- Additional precipitation chances (20-50% PoPs) early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Tonight through Friday:

A low-amplitude shortwave trough and attending mid/upper-level wind maxima are in the process of moving through the central Plains late this evening. Forcing for ascent preceding those features is quickly advancing to the south and east of our area. So the ongoing, light showers in Harrison and Shelby Counties should end in the next hour or two. Clouds are on the decrease from west-to-east with overnight lows in the 20s.

A weak wind shift will move through the area Thursday with winds becoming gusty from the west or northwest by afternoon. The downslope-induced warming associated with the winds will combine with mostly sunny skies to support highs in the 50s to low 60s at most locations. Some 40s are possible in areas of residual snowcover in west-central IA. Greatest fire-weather concerns are in northeast NE Thursday afternoon where minimum relative humidity of 22-23% will coincide with wind gusts of around 25 mph, yielding very high fire danger.

A strong shortwave trough is forecast to move through central Canada Friday with an associated cold front moving through the northern Plains and mid-MO Valley. The models indicate a pronounced thermal ridge developing in the low levels ahead of the front, which could support highs in the 60s, given an afternoon frontal passage. A quicker frontal movement would result in cooler temperatures. Gusty northwest winds develop behind the front, which when coupled with minimum relative humidity of 20-25% will result in very high fire danger in northeast and southeast NE.

Saturday through Tuesday:

Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is projected to traverse the north-central U.S. Saturday, promoting the development of a snow band to our north. With the passage of that disturbance to our east, a colder air mass will settle south into the mid-MO Valley with highs mainly in the 40s. By Sunday into Sunday night, the models hint at a weak disturbance moving through a confluent, mid-level flow regime in place across the central Plains. Strengthening low/mid-level warm advection ahead of that feature will support increasing precipitation chances during that time frame with the highest PoPs of 50-70% forecast Sunday.

The 12z GEFS depicts the highest event-total QPF (and potential impacts) across our area compared to the EPS and Canadian ensemble. The predominant precipitation type is expected to be snow, but there is some signal for a wintry mix in southeast NE where the warm advection is the strongest. Snowfall accumulations are uncertain at this point, so keep an eye on the forecast if you have travel plans.

The confluent, mid-level pattern is forecast to linger over the central U.S. into early next week ahead of a subtropical-branch trough moving through the Interior West. This forecast update will indicate a chance of precipitation on Monday and Tuesday with the highest PoPs of 30-50% on Monday night. That being said, there are model differences on the specifics of the surface pattern and the movement of subtle features aloft. So, confidence in precipitation chances and type, as well as temperatures is low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 510 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Southwesterly winds will become northwesterly this afternoon and then southwesterly again this evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.