textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area Monday. Expect afternoon heat index values of 105 to 110 with overnight heat indices remaining in the 70s.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening (10-20% chance in northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa). Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

- Cooler weather returns by the middle of the week, with high temperatures falling back into the 80s and even some 70s Thursday. There will be increasing chances for showers and storms Wednesday night into Friday.

- Warm weather looks to return by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 942 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Evening analysis showed a warm front stretched from northwest to southeast across far northeast NE into southwest IA and slowly pushing eastward. To the northwest, a broken line of showers and even a cluster of severe storms had developed along a wind shift across SD into western NE, but had since largely dissipated as of 930 PM with slightly drier air aloft and weaker shear this direction. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that nothing additional will form. However, given plenty of instability to work with and strengthening moisture transport as we go into the overnight, wouldn't completely rule out another storm popping up with potential for it to produce some gusty winds if it does. One other thing of note overnight will be some fog potential along the aforementioned warm front, mainly in within a county or two of the Missouri River. Model soundings suggest winds aloft will be strong enough to keep it somewhat patchy, but we did see development along that same boundary last night/this morning.

With the warm front continuing to push east, the warmest air of the year thus far looks to build in for Monday. Expect highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s for much of the area, with latest short term guidance giving a 60 to 100% chance of hitting at least 100 degrees near and west of the Missouri River. In addition, dewpoints look to remain in the 70s across much of the area, yielding heat indices in the 105 to 110 range. A Heat Advisory remains in place through 10 PM for the entire area.

By the afternoon, attention turns to strong to severe storm chances as a cold front starts to work into the area from the north. Latest CAMs are in good agreement that we see scattered storms start to develop along the boundary in northeast NE into west-central IA by 3- 4 PM. Once again, plenty of instability to work with, but strongest deep layer shear looks to be confined behind the front. That said, there could be just enough overlap right along the boundary to yield some degree of storm organization and a threat for strong to severe storms. The main threat would be damaging downburst winds as storms collapse, with deep inverted V model soundings. Still some questions on how far south these storms will make it, but latest guidance confines them to areas north of an east-west line through the Omaha metro. A second round of showers and storms is looking possible (20- 30% chance) overnight as a shortwave trough approaches. These look unlikely to be severe with most of the instability scoured out behind the front.

Behind the front, we'll see relief from the heat, especially in the Wednesday-Friday period. Temperatures on Tuesday look to remain close to average for this time of year, topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but expect widespread lower to mid 80s Wednesday, and even a few spots staying stuck in the 70s on Thursday. Something else to note is that latest HRRR guidance suggests we could see a little smoke make it to the surface with the subsidence behind the front. At this point, concentrations look like they'll be rather low, but maybe just enough to notice. Otherwise, we'll also see some higher chances for more widespread showers and a few storms Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday as a couple shortwave troughs slide through with a decent surface low passing by to our south (40-70% chance both nights). Severe weather chances continue to look minimal (under 5%) with very little instability in place.

Now for some unfortunate news. The upper level ridging that brought us the heat looks to edge back eastward for the weekend, with highs looking to get back into upper 80s and 90s. On top of that, long term outlooks favor warmer-than-average temperatures continuing into the first few days of August.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with areas of patchy fog possible southeast of KOMA near the NE/IA/MO border region from 09-13z. Otherwise, southeasterly winds are expected with slightly stronger speeds compared to the past few days. A wind shift boundary is expected to slide southward towards the terminals after 18z tomorrow, serving also as a focus of isolated to scattered storm development (20-40% chance), with the best bet for storms being east of KOMA after 21z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068- 078-088>093. Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-016- 017. IA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.