textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog and drizzle will continue spreading into eastern Nebraska and far southwestern Iowa, peaking around sunrise Tuesday

- Dreary conditions and chances for light rain continue through much of the work week, including a few thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures gradually return to the 60s and possibly 70s toward the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this evening continues to feature the largely zonal mid/upper flow over much of the CONUS, a shortwave trough pushing east from the Great Basin, and a band of ascent extending eastward from it. Most of the airmass-differentiating boundaries at the surface are still relegated well south and west of the forecast area, with low-level warm air advection and weak moisture return from the southeast helping to develop thicker cloud cover and spread drizzle/fog chances into the area heading into the overnight hours. Latest short-term runs are split as to how far the fog spreads from south-central Nebraska, with the most likely areas to see particularly low visibility values covered by a newly-minted Dense Fog Advisory. Given the time of year, it is worth noting that temperatures are above freezing as of now, with that warm air advection helping to keep temperatures from falling below that mark at their lowest point overnight in the 33 to 36 degree range. Even accounting for wet bulbing/evaporative cooling of surfaces, dewpoints above freezing as well will further limit potential for any slickness. Expect the lowest visibility values to occur between 6-7 AM, building slowly to that point and receding almost completely by 11 AM Tuesday morning.

During the rest of the morning and into the afternoon Tuesday, short- term models favor an arm or two of light rain extending from central Kansas to the east-northeast into southern Iowa, grazing southeast Nebraska and Iowa. To the north of this regime, we'll see the low clouds lift slightly, but remain thick while the lowest layer of lapse rates increasing. This increase will facilitate areas of patchy mist/drizzle north of the light rain that lasts into the early afternoon. Highs during the afternoon are slated to top out near 50 degrees across the area, making a very strange early March day that is completely cloudy while being above- normal temperature- wise. Heading into the overnight hours, deeper lift will be provided by the aforementioned Great Basin shortwave, spreading light rainfall northward, but still not amounting to a whole lot in the end.

Wednesday and Beyond:

Precipitation chances linger from the early morning hours Wednesday as the shortwave attempts to close off over the area, transitioning from a positive tilt to neutral as it sweeps east-northeast. Skies will gradually clear out, and with a few peeks of sunshine during the afternoon will help boost temperatures even further into the 50s to nearly 60 degrees (warmest to the west where skies clear earlier).

By Thursday, a deeper longwave trough will be moving through the Great Basin, as another wave ascent takes shape in anticipation of it across the Southern Plains. Locally, mostly clear skies and southerly flow will help boost temperatures well into the 60s and even lower 70s. Those southerly winds won't have the speeds that we're looking for in terms of a dangerous fire environment, and will also be carrying some of the better surface moisture in terms of dewpoints with it. Late into the overnight period/early morning Friday, a lee surface low associated with aforementioned trough will be taking shape over east-northeast Colorado, with a potent low- level jet providing a well-sheared environment to join steepening mid-level lapse rates and giving us some risk of elevated storms capable of producing small hail in addition to healthy rainfall. As of now, the best chances only graze far southeast Nebraska, but small fluctuations in model output could shift this area a bit as new runs come out. Friday afternoon, we'll have a surface low/trough ejecting from northern Kansas across eastern Nebraska and into Iowa, pulling with it a cold front that will cool temperatures from another well-above average values from the afternoon. As the system moves through the area, gusty winds will occur (30-40 mph) while post-frontal precipitation lingers to the north and west of its track, affecting northeast Nebraska into South Dakota and northwest Iowa through early Saturday.

The overall pattern quiets down for us Saturday into the early week, with part of Friday's system still looking to retrograde to southern California to develop zonal split flow in the mid/upper levels. Early indications are that this subtropical system will join with a northerly trough and eject into the Great Plains Tuesday/Wednesday. This could provide another chance at seeing showers and storms once again, but we have a long ways to go before anyone needs to plan on locally.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Ceilings are beginning to decrease across the region with fog and drizzle developing also. MVFR ceilings become IFR ceilings over the next hour with MVFR visibility beginning to develop due to fog and drizzle. Further decreases are expected overnight into Tuesday morning. LIFR ceilings are expected for all area terminals. IFR visibility is anticipated at OFK and LNK during this period. Dense fog of 1/2 mile or less may further develop, but confidence on these impacts is lower. MVFR visibility is forecast at OMA, but confidence in IFR visibility is lower. Ceilings and visibility do not improve until the late morning and early afternoon. Any fog or drizzle dissipates as ceilings lift back through IFR and MVFR categories. OFK may briefly return to VFR late in the afternoon. Ceilings are currently forecast to fall after sunset once again Tuesday evening at the end of this TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ030-042-050- 065-078-088. IA...None.