textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A rain-snow mix is possible (30-50% PoPs) into Monday morning across portions of northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa with little to no accumulation expected.

- Rain is expected to mix with and then change over to all snow across portions of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some 1-3" accumulations appear possible with a 40-60% chance of slippery roads during the Tuesday morning commute.

- An active weather pattern will lead to continued shower and storm chances from Wednesday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

It was a quiet and fairly pleasant evening across the area with temperatures as of 10 PM still hanging in the mid 40s to mid 50s. However, a cold front was starting to push in from the north and will keep highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s across most of the area on Monday.

Behind the front, we'll see a couple chances for rain and snow and perhaps even enough snow for some slick roads. The first chances arrive after midnight across northeast NE and west- central into southwest IA as low to mid level frontogenesis strengthens. Model soundings continue to show only transient saturation with surface temperatures hovering on either side of freezing. As a result, expect a mix of rain and snow and any snow that does fall will be very light and have a tough time sticking. Maybe a few spots see a couple tenths of an inch, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces.

A few showers may linger into the afternoon with a brief break in precip for late afternoon/early evening. However, low to mid level frontogenesis will ramp back up a little farther south by Monday night, with warm air advection further contributing to forcing for ascent. As a result, expect a heavier precipitation band to set up, with rain to start and snow mixing in and eventually becoming the predominant precip type overnight into Tuesday morning. Models continue to trend upward on snowfall amounts with ensembles suggesting a 60-90% chance of at least 1" in the center of the band and a 30-40% chance of at least 3". That said, there remains quite a bit of spread in exactly where that band will set up with solutions ranging from along a Norfolk to Atlantic line (keeping it largely north of Omaha) to along a Columbus to Nebraska City line (keeping it largely south of Omaha, but impacting Lincoln) and everywhere in between. We'll keep a close eye on how things trend, but expect a band of at least 1-3" about the width of 2-3 counties from Monday night into Tuesday morning. Wherever it does fall, expect slick roads and a slow Tuesday morning commute. The good news is temperatures on Tuesday should top out in the 40s and 50s, so it should melt quickly.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, guidance is still in good agreement that a cutoff low will move along the Canadian border with a secondary low moving along the NE/SD border. A surface warm front will advance northward through the area into Wednesday morning with the warm air advection and moisture transport keeping some showers going Tuesday evening before the exit to the northeast. The lows will then help to drag a cold front through the area sometime Wednesday afternoon/evening with shower and storm development expected in its vicinity. Ahead of the front, southwesterly winds could gust upwards of 30 mph and lead to some increased fire danger, pending precip, though winds are progged to weaken as the driest air moves in behind the cold front.

The front looks to stall in or southeast of our area while several bits of shortwave energy eject out of an incoming trough off the west coast. This will lead to continued shower and storm chances Thursday through the weekend with consensus showing basically a standing 40-70% chance each day. Temperatures Thursday and Friday should top out in the mid 50s to mid 60s before the front looks to advance back northward and we see 60s and 70s for the weekend. There may also be some severe weather chances at times with various machine learning guidance showing at least a 5% chance Friday through Sunday, though obviously still lots of details to work out between now and then.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the majority of the period. Light rain/snow has struggled to reach the surface across northeast Nebraska and western Iowa this morning, but a few showers could become successful by early afternoon. A couple model solutions have light precipitation pushing into the KOFK area just after 12Z, with off and on showers possible through 16Z. A few sprinkles or flurries may glance the KOMA area, but should remain to the northeast for the most part. Little to no accumulation is expected with any snow that does fall today. Winds will remain out of the northeast at 5-10 kts this morning, increasing to 10-15 kts this afternoon and evening. A better chance for accumulating snow will arrive tonight, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible at all three TAF sites after 06Z this evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.