textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms chances peak Friday morning with on and off chances sticking around into the weekend. Trends are toward drier weather into the evening of Halloween.

- A strong weather system moves into the region early next week, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Periods of heavy rain are possible.

- Cooler temperatures and lingering rain chances remain in the forecast through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A stationary front is currently located just south of Kansas/Nebraska border. Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed near this front this evening. Weaker showers and thunderstorms have also begun developing north of the front in a regime of increasing isentropic ascent. While the front remains stationary, rain chances slowly spread north and east towards the Interstate 80 corridor through Friday morning. This is when rain chances peak. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected into Friday afternoon, but these should be widely scattered, keeping rain chances lower. This activity is associated with a low pressure system that will lift from Northern Mexico and the Southern Rockies into the Central Plains. Cooler temperatures linger behind the front, but cloud cover keeps temperatures from falling lower. Expect 40s to low 50s to start Friday before slowly warming into the upper 50s and low 60s by afternoon. Slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s reside across Southeast Nebraska nearest the stationary front.

The aforementioned low pressure system moves over the area Friday night into Saturday. This system will support lingering showers and patchy fog across the area as we remain north of the front and maintain isentropic ascent. That said, rain should be more hit or miss, with dry periods likely. By evening, the trend remains drier for Halloween festivities, but a few light showers can't be entirely ruled out. With the continued rain and clouds, temperatures similar to Friday can be expected on Saturday. Our next weather system remains hot on the heels of our current system. As a result of this, cloud cover and low rain chances now linger into Sunday. Temperatures continue to be similar to previous days also.

Early next week sees a strong area of low pressure swing across the Great Basin into the Central Plains. Cyclogenesis is anticipated west of the region with the current guidance moving the developing area of low pressure directly over our area. In this scenario, temperatures remain similar to previous days. Widespread rain chances are to be expected, making for a damp start to the week. Rainfall could be heavy at times due to above normal precipitable water values from modified tropical moisture feeding into this system. Many locations could see storm total rainfall amounts surpass one inch. At this time, thunderstorm chances remain lower with severe weather unlikely, but this will need to be watched carefully as a shift to the north could change this forecast.

Widespread rain chances continue into Tuesday before the weather system begins to shift east of the area. A strong cold front begins to push across the area during this time. Gusty northwest winds are possible behind the front as a result of the strong area of low pressure. Cooler temperatures begin to filter in as well. Rain chances and gusty winds may linger into Wednesday, but these should gradually diminish as everything moves off the the east. By the end of the week, cooler temperatures, mainly in the 50s, are expected. At least low rain chances linger during this time as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Showers and storms across areas Omaha southward this morning. These will continue through the morning into the afternoon. Cigs have lowered to MVFR and will continue to gradually lower to IFR by this afternoon. Guidance suggests cigs will remain IFR predominantly through the day, but the pattern may allow for cigs to bounce between 800-1200 ft. We'll have a better chance for improvement as the bulk of the showers move out after 21Z, when cigs should get up close to 1500 ft before cigs drop back down to IFR then LIFR after 00Z. Guidance suggests BR or -DZ will lead to reduced visibility overnight, possibly as low as 1/2SM at KOFK and KLNK. Went with 2SM for now in the TAFs.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.