textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, with another round possible tonight into Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected.

- Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler today and Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the work week, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Today and Tomorrow...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis late this morning continue to depict an amplified ridge in place over the western CONUS with subsequent troughing in place over the eastern CONUS. Sandwiched between the two, we continued to reside under northwesterly flow aloft as a train of disturbance slide over the ridge and into the area. A shortwave disturbance pivoting across NE/SD has developed a band of showers and thunderstorms that will continue its slow trek eastward into eastern Nebraska this afternoon. Instability quickly drops off with eastern extent, so showers are expected to gradually weaken and decrease in coverage as they progress into the area through the afternoon. Given the slow movement and longer residence time, we could see some rainfall totals approaching 1 inch towards east-central Nebraska, with totals quickly dropping off towards the Missouri River. Otherwise, the increasing cloud cover will keep afternoon highs confined to the low 70s to low 80s.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight into early Monday as a 25-30 kt LLJ noses into eastern Nebraska, helping to bring sufficient low-level moisture and warm air advection to initiate a round of scattered showers, generally after 10 PM before become more widespread overnight. Instability will be the main limiting factor for storms overnight. A corridor of marginal MUCAPE (1000-1250 J/kg) will drift into northeast Nebraska, bring some low- end potential for a stronger storm or two. However, instability tapers off quickly to the south and east, leaving enough for a few rumbles of thunder but limiting overall storm intensity. Showers will gradually taper off through the late morning hours on Monday. Rainfall totals will be quite variable across the area, depending on where heavier showers track, though pockets of 0.50-1.00" are expected across eastern Nebraska. Clouds cover will be slow to break up and improve behind the departing showers, helping to keep afternoon highs confined to the upper 70s and low 80s yet again.

Tuesday...

Through the work week, the large scale pattern will remain largely unchanged, with ridging to our west keeping the area under generally northwest flow aloft as a train of shortwave disturbances bring periodic precipitation chances. A few extra peaks of sunshine on Tuesday will help bring high temperatures back into the mid 80s ahead of a shortwave disturbance pushing into the northern Plains. The disturbance is expected to spin up a surface low tracking across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba that will drape a cold front across the plains, pushing southward across the area through the latter half of Tuesday/early Wednesday.

Storm chances with the frontal passage remain somewhat uncertain. While it does look like a fairly unstable airmass will develop ahead of the front, the better forcing for ascent will remain to our northeast, closer to Minnesota, with another enhanced area to our west towards western NE/KS with another incoming shortwave disturbance. Storm development will likely fall on more mesoscale details that come into focus with time. While a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out, the better potential resides to our west. With this in mind, PoPs of 20-40% are in place Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday and Beyond...

Precipitation chances clear out Wednesday morning, with dry conditions likely into Thursday. Plenty of sunshines and a brief period of surface high pressure will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Long range guidance continues to flatten the western CONUS ridge into the weekend, keeping it mostly centered over the Desert Southwest and Permian Basin, leaving more zonal flow aloft locally and bringing subtle temperature increase to the area. High temperatures are expected to push back into the mid to upper 80s this weekend, though we will still remain vulnerable to passing shortwave disturbance over the ridge bringing periodic precipitation chances. On-and-off PoPs of 20-40% continue Friday through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A band of rain showers will slowly push eastward across the area this afternoon. Generally VFR conditions prevail, with patchy MVFR conditions expected under heavier showers. Showers and expected to continue at KOFK and KLNK, with coverage more spotty eastward towards KOMA as showers begin to decrease in coverage through the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances remain low, around 20%, at the terminals this afternoon.

A break in precipitation is expected this evening before more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop overnight, clearing by the mid to late morning. This round of storms is expected to impact each terminal, with refinements in timing is likely. Winds will back from the southwesterly this afternoon to southeasterly tonight. Though winds will generally remain calm, a few 12-18 kt gusts will be possible with passing rain showers.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.