textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A few scattered thunderstorms are expected (30-50% chance) tonight in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with small hail possible (under 1 inch).

- Rain chances increase Wednesday into Thursday (80-100%), with a few strong to severe storms possible in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Rainfall totals are expected to peak in the 0.25-1.00" range for most.

- A cool and wet pattern is expected to persist through the work week, with additional rain and storm chances (60-80%) on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Today and Tonight...

A series of shortwave disturbances moving into the central and southern Plains will usher in a more amplified and active pattern over the next several days. A cold front pushed through the area early this morning, bringing a cooler airmass and gusty northerly winds in its wake. Wind gusts peaked in the 40-47 mph range earlier today, gradually diminishing through the late morning hours and allowing the Wind Advisory to expire at noon. Northeasterly winds will remain breezy this afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph, before easing to around 15 to 25 mph overnight. The post-frontal airmass has resulted in a notable drop in temperatures, with highs ranging from the mid 50s in northeast Nebraska to the upper 60s in southeast Nebraska, roughly 20-25 degrees cooler than yesterday.

Very high fire danger will also persist through the afternoon. However, the lowest relative humidity values (around 25-30% across northeast Nebraska) are expected to lag behind the strongest winds, somewhat mitigating overall fire danger. A few scattered showers may develop within the post-frontal airmass this afternoon, but a dry sub-cloud layer will limit measurable precipitation, keeping PoPs below 15% with sprinkles the most likely outcomes.

Additional precipitation chances arrive this evening into the early overnight hours, primarily across extreme southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, as WAA strengthens over the region. Forecast soundings indicate modest elevated instability (500-750 J/Kg of MUCAPE), supporting the potential for thunderstorms. A few storms could produce small hail, though shear profiles are rather unimpressive, making the confidence in getting hail up to 1 inch in diameter fairly low. With this in mind, SPC has trimmed much of the area out of the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather, leaving just extreme southeast Nebraska. Some much-needed rainfall is also expected with these storms, with amounts generally expected in the 0.15-0.40" range.

Tomorrow and Thursday...

On Wednesday, a more robust shortwave trough will eject from the Desert Southwest into the central Plains, inducing surface cyclogenesis over western Kansas. This surface low is expected to track northeast through the day, with increasing large-scale ascent and WAA supporting an expanding precipitation shield across the forecast area. PoPs will increase steadily through the day, becoming widespread (90-100%) by Wednesday evening. Persistent cloud cover will limit daytime heating, with highs only reaching the mid 40s in northeast Nebraska to the low 60s across southeast Nebraska.

A mix of precipitation types is possible. Light snow may develop across northeast Nebraska Wednesday morning, though warm ground temperatures should limit any meaningful impacts. Farther south, across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, a conditional severe weather threat will exist. While instability remains somewhat modest (generally near or below 1000 J/kg MUCAPE), the proximity of the surface low will enhance low-level shear and hodograph curvature. This supports a non-zero tornado risk, along with the potential for marginally severe hail and wind. The extent of this threat will depend heavily on the exact track of the surface low, as a more southerly track would shift the better severe potential south of the area. The SPC currently maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Regardless of how the severe weather potential plays out, widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday into early Thursday. HREF indicates a 60-95% probability of at least half an inch of rain, peaking in southeast Nebraska. Probabilities of at least one inch also peak in southeast Nebraska in the 50-70% range. Exact totals will likely be quiet variable, depending on where any heavier showers track. Precipitation will taper off from west to east by early Thursday afternoon, with a few snowflakes again possible in northeast Nebraska. Cloud cover will gradually clear thereafter. Temperatures Thursday will rebound into the 60s along and south of Interstate-80, while areas north may remain cooler (mid 40s to mid 50s) due to lingering cloud cover.

Friday and Beyond...

Another potent disturbance is expected to push from the Front Range into the Central Plains on Friday, again inducing surface cyclogenesis over western Kansas and tracking east-northeast through the Plains. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the placement and extend of the warm sector, which will ultimately dictate severe weather potential across the area. Recent guidance trends have shifted the primary warm sector farther east and south of the forecast area. However, confidence remains limited at this range. SPC currently highlights far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa with a 15% probability for severe weather, which appears reasonable given current trends.

Temperatures on Friday will exhibit a strong gradient, depending on warm sector placement, with highs ranging from the 40s in northeast Nebraska to the 70s in southeast Nebraska. PoPs remain in the 60-80% range, with the potential for a transition to light snow early Saturday as cooler air filters in on the back side of the low. PoPs diminish through Saturday, with highs generally in the 40s and 50s. Gusty northwesterly winds are likely on the backside of the departing system, with EPS/EPS-AIFS indicating at 50-70% probability of gusts exceeding 40 mph.

By Sunday into early next week, mid-level ridging is expected to push into the central Plains, supporting a warming trend and return towards dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight and into Wednesday morning. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop across far southeast Nebraska around 06Z tonight, but should remain south of the TAF sites. Showers and a few storms will become more widespread by Wednesday afternoon. Expect MVFR to IFR clouds to develop from south to north after 15Z, and persisting through the remainder of the forecast period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.