textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of rain with a few thunderstorms continue through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are expected.

- Cool conditions linger Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s, before a brief warmup and dry weather Sunday into Monday.

- Rain and storms return Monday night through Thursday with heavy rainfall on wet ground posing a risk of flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Guess what? Another rainy day. We're on day 15 with rain observed at Omaha/Eppley and counting. Last time this happened was in March of 1960. What's causing this you may ask? Well we've been staying in a fairly active southwesterly flow regime that continues to stream moisture from the warm, active waters of the eastern Pacific keeping skies cloudy with periods of rainfall. Looking at water vapor imagery you can clearly see the stream of moisture being advected into the Great Plains.

Areas across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa are getting a bit of a break in the rain between shortwaves this afternoon. The next surge of moisture and rainfall is forecast to arrive around 5-7PM this evening. Much of our area will see anywhere from 0.5-1 inch of rain overnight into early Saturday.

We'll see another break in the rain mid-morning Saturday with rain chances increasing again through the late afternoon and evening as a warm front moves through. This warm front will bring warmer air up from the south, increasing instability with a better chance for thunderstorms with the round Saturday evening. Highs on Saturday also warm into the low-to-mid 70s once the warm front moves through. While shear is weak for storm development in the evening (around 35kt of 0-6km bulk shear), we do have fairly interesting low-level curvature so will have to monitor for any mesocyclone development. Don't anticipate large hail to be much of a concern due to the saturated profile, but wet microbursts or a brief tornado could be possible.

A cold front pushes through overnight Saturday night into early Sunday. With ridging building in aloft I'd generally expect warming temperatures with the period of dry weather. With all the low-level moisture and only weak CAA out of the north, we more expect widespread fog and drizzle Sunday morning transitioning to low stratus that struggles to clear Sunday afternoon. The NBM shows this fairly well, including the stratus re-solidifying Sunday night and persisting into Monday. Cloud cover will limit how warm we can get with highs only warming into the low-to-mid 70s Sunday and Monday. If we do see any significant clearing temperatures may be slightly underdone.

Going into next week, we see our next potential storm system arrive late Monday into Tuesday as another deep trough pushes inland along the West Coast. This will stream moisture back into the Central Plains from both the Gulf and the eastern Pacific. Some model guidance suggests potential for the development of a LLJ which would locally enhance environmental shear and instability bringing potential for severe storms somewhere across the Central Plains. We have greater confidence in potential for flash flooding and maybe even some river flooding as there is a good chance these storms will put down moderate to heavy rain at times. Rivers will be primed, though maybe a bit improved due to the Sunday-Monday dry period.

We'll be watching another developing surface low midweek next week with significant potential for heavy rain and flash flooding just north somewhere across southern Nebraska or northern Kansas. This would likely be more on Wednesday into early Thursday where deterministic long-range guidance shows at least two consecutive 6-hr periods of 1-2 inches of rain along a stationary boundary until the surface low pushes it northeast Wednesday night into Thursday.

We could see another dry period toward the end of next week, but another trough digging in suggests it again wouldn't be for long. CPC guidance indicates above normal precipitation continuing through the 6-10 day period with some relief possible in the 8-14 day forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A mix of MVFR to LIFR conditions to continue through the TAF period. We're seeing a bit of a break in the rain this afternoon which may allow for cigs to improve to MVFR in some parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The next round of rain arrives around 23Z this evening bringing cigs back down to IFR across the region and reducing visibility to 3-5 miles. Expect rain to continue overnight with cigs lowering to LIFR for several hours at KOFK. Meanwhile at KOMA and KLNK there is a pretty good signal that we could see conditions improve to MVFR for a period between 02-08Z until the next wave of rain arrives. Expect predominantly IFR conditions from then on, not improving until rain clears out at 16Z at the earliest. Even then, occasional drizzle into the afternoon could periodically reduce visibility. Winds through the period stay fairly steady out of the southeast at around 10kt.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.