textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Regular chances of thunderstorms continue each day through the forecast. Late Wednesday night (80%) and Thursday night (40-70%) bring the best chances.

- Hot conditions linger with afternoon heat indices of 100 or more lingering into Wednesday across southwest Iowa.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Monday and Tuesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

TUESDAY

Tuesday's temps will be warmer than Monday's by just a few degrees and with dewpoints expected to remain high thanks to continued southeasterly flow. Those few degrees will be instrumental in pushing heat indices into dangerous territory once again. Another heat advisory may be needed for areas southeast of the Omaha metro as heat indices should approach 100-110.

Thunderstorm chances are a lot like those of Monday, dependent on a convective complex finding its way into the area from the west/northwest... probably after dark. By this point, those storms may be running on a cold pool and producing a swath of damaging winds.

.THE REST OF THE FORECAST..

Low-level ridging over the Gulf keeps monsoonal moisture streaming through the southern Rockies and into the Corn Belt through the week and into the weekend. Regular opportunities for showers and thunder continue with the area remaining on the northern edge of the squat ridge. As a sfc low ejects out of the Rockies Wednesday night, it will tap into PWAT values of 1.75"+ which is in the 90th percentile of mid-August values (NAEFS). The WPC has the area highlighted with a marginal risk (1 of 4) of flooding Wednesday and a slight risk (2 of 4) on Thursday as the rain continues. NBM probabilities of seeing 1" or more of precip over Wednesday and Thursday peak at 60-70% along a ribbon of farmland from near Columbus to Omaha to Atlantic, IA. Areas both north and south of this ribbon have lesser chances.

Cooler air pushes in from the north on Thursday and Friday when most locations will peak only in the 70s.

With very little changing in the overall pattern, regular chances of afternoon and overnight thunderstorms continue into next weekend, too. It's a good sign for those of us familiar with the current state of the drought monitor.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A few showers and storms will once again fester over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa overnight. These should remain south of the TAF sites. Patchy fog has begun to develop, and will primarily effect low lying areas. Expect some MVFR, potentially IFR visibilities over KOFK through 14Z. Lower visibilities could sink into the KOMA area as well, however confidence is lower. Winds will remain light out of the northeast, eventually becoming southeast by Monday afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.