textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures in the upper 70s to just over 80 are on tap for Monday, with a light shower or two possible after 10 PM.

- Our next chance for any thunderstorms appears to be on Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

- Wednesday is also expected to be hot, with very high fire danger forecast across extreme northeast Nebraska.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features increasingly depressed flow over the eastern third of the CONUS, influenced by a shortwave digging into the Ohio River Valley while another mid/upper wave traverses the Northern High and Great Plains. Northwesterly winds and the increasing effects of high pressure are being felt this afternoon, with the only criticism being slightly gusty winds at 20- 30 mph, while temperatures sit the the otherwise comfy confines of the lower 70s. Winds become nearly calm overnight, and result in lows that may beat most model guidance, as our recent warm streak has dulled the effects of bias correction. We've got our lows hitting the upper 40s to just over 50. West-southwesterly winds take hold of the area tomorrow, giving us a bit of a bump in temperatures via downslope flow, before a cold front moves in from the northwest after 10 PM. We're carrying some low-end chances for rain as they pass (around 15-20%), but both the amounts and the spatial coverage will be too small for any effect to be felt from them.

Tuesday and Beyond:

By Tuesday, the upper pattern features northwesterly flow aloft, with the main jet streak pointed from BC/Albert into Iowa, carrying a shortwave/speed max through it into the area. Before any rain chances arrive, we're able to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and rain/storm chances glance the northeastern Nebraska and parts of western Iowa.

As far as any impactful weather goes, Wednesday will be the day to watch -- carrying temperatures that soar into the low-to-mid 90s, very high fire danger in northeast Nebraska, and some early afternoon/evening showers and storms across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. A pair of local surface lows will arrive from the west/northwest, scouring out moisture behind them while organizing severe ingredients to their southeast. The current timing of their passage limits the threat risk area to be highest southeast of the forecast area, but a slower arrival would mean quickly expanding severe odds that would carry all hazards before cooler temperatures stream in behind overnight.

Thursday through the rest of the forecast sees building troughing to the west of the area, with the return of a summertime feel to the forecast. A cooler Thursday turns into a warmer Friday and Saturday, with late-in-the-day thunderstorm chances returning via low-level jet nosing or from the west after initiating off of boundaries up the High Plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are in place this breezy afternoon, with northwesterly winds gusting to 25 kts, which is on the upper end of forecast guidance for today. Shallow clouds at FL040-060 dot the sky, while gradually lifting and diminishing later this afternoon. Winds will diminish through the afternoon, falling nearly calm overnight before returning out of the west- southwest around sunrise tomorrow morning, lasting through the end of the TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.