textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the before sunrise. Severe storms are unlikely this morning.

- Severe thunderstorm chances return Sunday afternoon into early Monday. All severe weather hazards will be possible, especially in southeast Nebraska.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected next week with little to no additional chances for precipitation forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Southwest upper level flow is directed by a closed and stacked low over Saskatchewan with a shortwave trof over California embedded within that southwesterly flow. An inverted sfc trof stretches from near the NE/IA/MO triple point NNE toward Mason City, IA.

Severe storms developed on the northern nose of the an area of instability associated with a sfc low tracking along the Kansas/Nebraska state line this evening.

Behind the departing system, low cigs have developed across the western half of the forecast area. Short-term guidance suggests visibility to be reduced to 1-3 miles in many of these same areas by sunrise. Have added patchy fog to the forecast overnight for most of the areas west of the Missouri River until about noon, though it may last longer.

Sunday's severe weather threat remains less certain than we'd like due to the influences of the shower/storm activity overnight and again on Sunday morning. Regardless, a sfc low is expected to develop in the Lee of the Rockies as the shortwave approaches from the west. Southerly flow brings solid moisture return and resultant instability to the area as mid-level height falls give incentive for updrafts. Guidance seems to be coming closer to a consensus of morning convection developing in western Kansas early Sunday morning and pushing northeast into eastern Nebraska by late afternoon/early evening. The primary threat with these storms would once again be large hail up to 2" in diameter in much of the same area under the threat on Saturday night (south of I-80). Damaging winds and a few tornados up to EF2 strength are possible (SPC).

Expect a lull in convection around midnight, before another uptick with the passage of the sfc low / triple just south of the area. CAMs suggest a higher severe threat with these storms with a greater amount of instability in the warm sector. Current guidance keeps them just south of this CWA. It's usually a safer bet to assume that a second round of storms will end up farther south than farther north thanks to a potential cold pool. Damaging hail and wind will be possible again overnight, even north of the warm front. The overnight tornado potential would be limited to the warm sector which may struggle to drive too far north into far southeast Nebraska.

PoPs will slowly climb through the day from about 15% at sunrise to near 100% by sunset Sunday eve. PWAT values are in the 90th percentile and the excessive rainfall outlook is currently at 'marginal'. I wouldn't be surprised to see it pushed to 'slight' as the storms will be producing very heavy rain at times. (Not too heavy though, HREF has 95% chance QPF under 1" an hour). QPF of 1-2" is common along and east of the Missouri River. HREF gives odds of 1"+ of precip in these areas a 60-90% probability.

The rest of the forecast is generally dry under quasi-zonal flow as temps will hang near seasonal norms. If you're one of those people that "misses" spring, here's your chance to get out there and enjoy it.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

IFR conditions at KOFK and KLNK this morning while KOMA so far is still VFR. Expect the low clouds to gradually expand eastward as cigs lift to MVFR this morning, with MVFR cigs arriving at KOMA around 17Z. Winds are out of the north this morning but will be shifting to southeasterly over the next few hours. Two potential rounds of storms are expected today and tonight with the first round starting around 19-21Z and the second round moving in around 05-06Z. Could potentially see damaging winds and large hail with storms impacting KOMA and KLNK. Winds will remain out of the southeast overnight with IFR cigs moving back into the terminals around 04-06Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.