textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances build into the area from the south late this afternoon into the evening hours, lingering through Friday early afternoon. Lightning will be rare with it.

- Thunderstorm chances develop early Saturday, returning during the evening hours, with a few strong wind gusts and hail possible across central Nebraska.

- Next week continues the summer-like pattern, with highs in the 80s and daily rain/weak storm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a summer-like pattern, featuring strong ridging across the central CONUS, a spinning cutoff low over the Great Basin region, and a negatively-tilted shortwave funneling moisture northward from the Gulf across the Plains into Montana. With the major features of the upper pattern being somewhat steady-state, warm air advection and the movement of the shortwave through the Plains will be doing the brunt of the weather making over the next couple of days. Already now, lighter rainfall is building into south-central Nebraska and northeast Kansas, poised to continue creeping northward. Despite overcast skies, we're still reaching into above-average temperature territory in the 80s while winds gust intermittently to 20-25 mph. Better rainfall coverage will build into the area 6 PM into the evening hours, but by no means will it be a gully washer.

Lingering rain chances and cloud cover will continue through the overnight hours and into Friday morning, with overnight temperatures getting bumped up with the latest forecast due to the insulation from above. Highs tomorrow will be negatively affected by the cloud cover and lingering rain chances, as we top out in in the 70s and see those rain chances gradually dissolve during the afternoon hours once the aforementioned shortwave moves north of the area. Getting a bit more specific total rainfall amount-wise, areas along and southwest of a line from Columbus to Lincoln have a greater than 50% shot at getting half of an inch or more of rainfall by Friday night. Fortunately, the combination of the warmer pattern and the general lack of lighting and heavy rainfall should keep outdoor plans from being cancelled.

Saturday and Beyond:

Chances for lightning increase early Saturday morning, as low-level convergence above the nocturnal inversion helps scattered storm activity jump upwards into moderate instability. With effective parcels cutting off the southeasterly winds at the surface, shear will be on the lower end, making severe chances quite low. Once we begin coupling back up after sunrise, those storm chances will dissipate in favor of a drier afternoon followed by storm chances moving in from the west from western/central Nebraska, where severe wind/hail chances are focused.

Sunday leans drier compared to Saturday, with the main cutoff low driving the activity to the west shifts northward and that better stream of moisture into it shifts in tandem. Large-scale global models favor far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and points northward for light precipitation with temperatures shifting back into the 80s compared to the couple of cooler days preceding it. Those similar temperatures will carry forward through much of next week, with the high pressure trying to hold strong over the north-central CONUS, gradually flattening out over the course of the week. Rain chances will also be a nearly daily occurrence, with any showers and storms behaving as they would in the middle of summer -- popping up along areas of enhanced moisture convergence before gently being steered through by the mean flow and along theta-e axes.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR conditions are slated for the initial TAF period, with winds continuing to shift more southeasterly, with intermittent gusts to 20 kts expected across much of the afternoon. Rain chances will build northward from the south, arriving between 00-10z gradually from southwest to northeast, with lightning being pretty hard to come by based on short-term guidance. The better rainfall will be closer to KLNK and points to the southwest, with IFR visibilities building in for about 3 hours tomorrow morning before both ceilings and visibilities improve heading into the afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.