textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for showers and storms Tuesday morning (60-80%), with another round possible mainly for northeast Nebraska during the afternoon/evening (30-60%). Marginal potential for severe storms with this second round (level 1 of 5).

- Continued chances for showers and storms Wednesday through Friday (15-30%).

- Seasonably warmer temperatures return Saturday and Sunday with another round of strong to severe storms possible early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 939 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Increasing mid- and high-level clouds this evening as the shortwave generating storms over western Nebraska and eastern Colorado approaches from the west. These aren't the storms to watch, though as they will drift off to the southeast, well away from our area. We're watching storms that have developed over northeastern WY and southeast MT which are along a cold front that will move into our area tomorrow.

Looking at the upper-level pattern, we have broad, weak ridging over the Rockies, with merging Polar and Subtropical Jets over Montana and the Dakotas. The system bringing our front through is a surface low moving out of Saskatchewan into North Dakota and Minnesota through the day on Tuesday. With regards to the cold front that will move through tomorrow, during the morning we'll see pre-frontal showers with potentially a few rumbles of thunder move into northeast Nebraska around 9AM continuing southeast into Omaha and Lincoln around Noon. Lingering cloud cover will make it difficult for us to destabilize ahead of the the arrival of the cold front, but if we do mainly northeast Nebraska could see a rogue strong to severe storm develop along the front as it moves through over the evening hours. Significant limiting factors will be lack of instability as well as weaker forcing farther south away from the surface low with very little upper-level support over eastern Nebraska. Really the only thing this system has for it is 35kt of 0-6km bulk shear over northeast NE which could help to organize anything stronger that goes up along the front. For this reason, SPC has our area under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms.

This cold front will leave a remnant moisture boundary west to east across our area on Wednesday with higher dew points expected across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. With this in place, a well-timed shortwave developing storms over western Nebraska Wednesday afternoon could bring storm chances back into our area Wednesday night through the morning on Thursday. While the 00Z deterministic GFS shows this potential, several other models show significant uncertainty in the location of this MCS forecast to develop Wednesday evening, keeping our rain chances still very uncertain overnight Wednesday night into Thursday.

Additional disturbances keep periodic chances for showers and storms across our area Thursday and Friday. Temperatures stay mild with highs in the 70s and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Going into the weekend, we see a stronger upper-level trough push into the PacNW, amplifying ridging over the Central Plains. This will lead to increased warm, moist air advection out of the Gulf causing temperatures to jump back into the mid 80s for highs on Saturday and low 90s for highs on Sunday. While storm activity looks to stay mostly confined to our north over the Dakotas over the weekend, we will be watching for the potential for a 60-70kt low-level jet overhead Saturday night into Sunday. This could produce some powerful storms for our northern neighbors.

The upper-level trough brings a surface low through sometime early next week, leading to a period of severe storm potential, especially if the LLJ maintains its intensity ahead of the front. Guidance brings this through sometime Monday or Tuesday of next week. Certainly a period to watch as it gets closer.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and a few isolated storms are on track to move through the area this morning into this afternoon, though should be on a diminishing trend as they move south, so did not include TS mentions. However, could see brief periods of MVFR ceilings during and/or immediately following precip, especially at OFK. Additional shower and isolated storm development is expected this evening and overnight. They'll be somewhat spotty so confidence in impacts at the TAF sites isn't high, but more guidance is now showing the potential for development, so including additional -SHRA mention. Otherwise, ceilings outside of precip should be around 3500-6000 ft ago through the day before increasing this evening. Winds will remain southerly, around 10 kts (few gusts of 18 kts at OFK), before they become light and southwesterly to westerly this evening and overnight.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.