textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic wind gusts of 45-55 mph will continue through 5 AM across extreme northeast Nebraska, where a Wind Advisory is in effect.

- Lingering windiness and critically low humidity values combine for extreme fire danger for most of Iowa into northeast Nebraska Wednesday 9 AM to 6 PM.

- Snow returns to the area Thursday, with increasing potential for a narrow band of 4 inches of snow or more affecting eastern Nebraska into Iowa.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this evening continues to feature the potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough that has been ushering in dry air and strong winds across the central CONUS, with the broader trough to its backside extending westward off the Pacific Coast. Recent observations and hand analysis places the forecast area in the dry, post-frontal sector of the system, with a sting jet nosing into northeast Nebraska, directly to the south of the main surface low and trough axis in South Dakota. Over the next 6 hours, sporadic strong winds will overpower the nocturnal inversion, resulting in gusts of 45-55 mph from the west-nortweast. Upstream gust observations of 58 mph or more have been trending fewer and farther in between, and we have issued a Wind Advisory for far northeast Nebraska for the remainder of the wind gusts that fall below 45 mph by 5 AM. Despite the time of day, very high fire danger will carry overnight as humidity values remain at 35-45% in the gustiest areas, making any recent burn piles/barrels potential sources of re- ignition.

By sunrise tomorrow, our nocturnal inversion will begin wearing out and we will see another increase in wind speeds close to 9 AM, with gust speeds of 35-45 mph that taper off through the morning. By noon, those speeds are forecast to be in the 30-40 mph and slowly on the decrease. While they decrease, temperatures are expected to reach into the 60s area-wide. Even though the driest conditions are not expected to overlap with the period of strongest winds, extreme fire danger is forecast as stronger winds compensate for higher humidity early -- trading off with the drier, but less windy, afternoon hours. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for most of Iowa into northeast Nebraska from 9 AM through 6 PM. Areas to the southwest should still exercise caution when burning, as critically low humidities will cause fuels to ignite very easily. After 6 PM, temperatures will begin to tank into the 30s with further decreasing winds, sending us into a whiplash of hot and windy to a cold and snowy Thursday.

Thursday:

As if fire weather and strong winds weren't enough for this broader trough to bring us, our eyes turn westward once again for a southerly branch/vorticity maxima to be shed eastward early Thursday. As it does so, lee cyclogenesis and a rapid intensification of the system is set to occur over the Central Plains. This dynamic system will have limited moisture to work with in the wake of the front side of the trough, but the strong forcing for ascent and its eventual pivot to the northeast will be enough to bring impactful snow back to the area. This system will try to skip any rain to the southeast edge of it, and set up a swath of snow that paints 4" or more across part of the forecast area.

Poking around at the details of this system, the main surface low is expected to track across northern Kansas during the morning hours before shooting to the northeast into Iowa and Wisconsin after that. This pivot and ejection to the northeast will increase the residence time of the dynamic lift and focus it over a relatively narrow area. Potent warm air advection, sloped frontogenesis, and some CSI will help to dump up to 4" for portions of northeast Nebraska into western Iowa Thursday afternoon. These heavy snow rates will disrupt the evening commute where it falls, and make for treacherous travel due to the combination of low visibilities and snow- covered roads. Though we have been warm, the higher snow rates will quickly overwhelm surface temperatures and let accumulation start quickly. The main points of uncertainty that we are trying to clear up are mostly associated with the speed of the system, and that will shift the narrow corridor of snow to the northwest or to the southeast. No matter what direction it shifts, expect a 3-4 county swath of 4"+ inches to stretch from eastern Nebraska into Iowa and points northeast. After peaking during the afternoon hours, expect snow to taper off during the late evening and overnight hours Thursday into Friday while cold air pours in behind it.

Friday and Beyond:

With our brief reminder of winter in the rear-view mirror, temperatures Friday are going to depend on where any snow did fall. Snow will keep highs from hitting anything above freezing, while the rest of the forecast area tries to reach into the mid-to-upper 30s with most of the day being dry. As of now, bias correction from the NBM may by underselling some of the cold that will settle in over the snow pack, but where exactly that sets up is still being refined. The back end of the mid/upper ridge will begin to spin eastward late Friday into Saturday, bringing glancing blows at rain/snow chances. Dynamic systems ahead of these smaller shortwaves (at least in comparison), expect those chances to shift north and south over successive runs of models, with the latest data showing a southern trend that favors northern Kansas rather than southeast Nebraska. From Sunday onward, we'll find ourselves on the eastern edge of weak ridging that will anchor itself over the Rockies through Tuesday and send temperatures trending upwards for most of the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions hold through the TAF period. Winds out of the west today will be flipping to north or northeasterly this evening. Increasing high clouds toward the end of the TAF period with snow forecast for northeast Nebraska starting just beyond this TAF package.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Fire danger has decreased to very high for most of the area, with lingering gusts of 45 to 55 mph across northeast Nebraska through 5 AM. From there, winds start strong (gusts of 35-45 mph) and fall through the day, while humidity values become increasingly critical into the afternoon. The combination of the two pushes us into extreme fire danger for most of Iowa into northeast Nebraska, with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 9 AM to 6 PM Wednesday. Areas to the southwest should still exercise caution with any fire activity due to critically low humidity values (15% or slightly less).

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-015-017-018-032>034-044-045. IA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-080.