textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Enjoy the beautiful weather this afternoon. Changes are in store for the next few days.

- Five counties across northern Nebraska have been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for concerns of low RH values, gusty winds, and dry conditions.

- Precipitation chances return to the forecast Thursday, with snow possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Expect a very nice afternoon as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 60s for most areas. A few low 70s are not entirely out of the question for the western portions of our forecast area. Southwest winds around 5-15mph will decrease toward mid-afternoon to around 5- 10mph. Temperatures remain mild overnight with lows primarily in the 40s.

Tuesday will bring some forecast challenges in regard to fire weather concerns. A ridge will be in place over the region Tuesday morning, shifting to the east with southwest flow coming overhead in the afternoon. Southerly winds of 15-25mph with gusts of 30-40mph will be possible in the afternoon. WAA will be occurring with an unseasonably and potentially record-setting day for some locations. Expected highs will be in the 70s, with a few locations approaching 80 degrees. Record high temperatures range from 72-77 degrees.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for a portion of the area. Antelope, Boone, Pierce, Madison and Platte counties have been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, where minimum RH values will fall into the teens to low 20s, co-located with winds gusting to 30- 40mph. Elsewhere across the CWA, there are some concerns with cloud cover potentially limiting how much our RH values will fall and mixing potential of stronger winds down to the surface. Can't say it won't happen, but confidence in meeting RFW criteria was not where it needed to be to issue a warning at this point in time. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the remaining counties. Knox and Cedar counties in northern Nebraska remain left out of the watch. There is a boundary that will be draped across that area and could limit potential fire weather issues enough to not need a warning.

Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, low pressure moves across the Dakotas, with a cold front moving west to east across Nebraska. There will be a 20-30% chance of a few rain showers beginning Tuesday evening and tapering off overnight. Although temperatures will be cooler, reaching the mid-50s to mid-60s, unseasonably cooler temperatures are expected.

Heading into Thursday, a second cold front drops in from the north, bringing a shot of colder air to the region after a fairly warm first half of February. Expected high temperatures will be in the 30s for northern Nebraska, with the 40s and 50s hanging on in areas the front does not arrive to until later in the day. The warmer temperatures are expected to occur earlier in the day, with temperatures falling during the afternoon and evening. Right now, Thursday appears to have a decent shot as some precipitation across the region. With temperatures returning to the 30s, rain, changing to a rain/snow mix before becoming all snow is expected. Precipitation should clear out by early Friday morning.

The extended forecast shows the potential for the cooler weather sticking around with occasional chances for precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period at the terminals. High level clouds will have a persistent presence through tomorrow morning. Winds will become southerly to southeasterly this afternoon. Winds increase tomorrow, with gusty winds expected beyond the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday's standing records vs the forecast

Norfolk 72 | 1981 .. 74 | 2026 Lincoln 74 | 2017 .. 77 | 2026 .Offutt 65 | 1970 .. 75 | 2026 .Eppley 75 | 2017... 75 | 2026 Tekamah 66 | 2017 .. 74 | 2026 Falls City 76 | 2017 .. 72 | 2026 Valley NWS 69 | 2017... 74 | 2026

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NEZ015-018-032>034-043>045-050>053-065>068- 078-088>093. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Tuesday for NEZ016-017- 030-031-042. IA...None.