textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be warm again on Friday, and even warmer on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will climb into the 90s across much of the area, and the current forecast is exceeding record temperatures at several locations.

- Very high to extreme fire danger is expected today through Sunday. The strongest combination of very dry air and gusty winds is likely to occur Saturday afternoon into early evening.

- Strong winds follow Saturday's heat, with northerly gusts increasing to 30-40 mph Sunday morning before slowly diminishing through the day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show the dominating high pressure mid/upper ridge centered over the western half of the CONUS that has been driving extremely warm and increasingly dry conditions over Great Plains. Temperatures at the surface have already pushed into the mid-to-upper 70s and even lower 80s today, with it only being a matter of time when we shatter records the 78- 81 degree records at Omaha, Lincoln, and Norfolk. Winds have been slow to shift northwesterly so far today, keeping relatively gentle speeds through tomorrow morning. Along the same line of thinking, the relatively light winds and dewpoints still in the 30s today have limited fire danger to very high. Extremely dry air is in place aloft, which continues mix to the surface and drop dewpoints throughout the day, setting the stage for tomorrow's forecast.

Saturday and Sunday:

The main concern of the forecast develops Saturday, headlined dangerous fire weather and by heat that has only occurred a handful of times in March. By Saturday morning, the low-level thermal ridge that had been sticking just west of the area is expected to broaden and spread eastward across the forecast area. At the same time, forecast soundings quickly develop a bone-dry and well-mixed character, translating that heat down to the surface. Dewpoints will only continue to dissipate throughout the vertical column, pushing humidity values into the teens and potentially single digits. Recent collaboration with local fuel experts reveals particularly dry conditions both in the short-term/grassy fuels and the longer- burning trees. The winds that we will be mixing into won't be overly strong (up to 30 kts), but periodic gusts to 20-30 mph during the afternoon will be enough with the critically dry conditions to result in extreme fire behavior.

After highs peak in the 90s area-wide (which would set records for the second straight day), temperatures begin to slowly decrease during the evening hours and help humidity values slowly recover. After 10 PM, a front will shift southward into the area, bringing with it gusty winds that will reach 30-40 mph into early Sunday. As of now, the current Red Flag Warning that extends into Iowa lasts until 4 AM early Sunday, but could be drawn out further if fire activity over-performs Saturday afternoon. Those winds will slowly decrease through the day, funneling in cooler air that will limit highs to the 50s and 60s, but still well-above normal for this time of year.

Monday and Beyond:

By Monday, mid/upper shortwave that brought the cooler winds into the area Sunday will have largely flattened the ridge to the west (though a lesser form of it will continue to exist through much of the week). We'll see temperatures continue to stay above-average (which for this time of year is in the upper 50s), and limited chances for rain, thought they won't necessarily be zero. Another day into the 70s and 80s looks likely for Wednesday next week, where the absence of rain will continue to loom over the area and keep fire danger at the forefront of the forecast. That afternoon/evening will feature another weak front that could bring trace amounts of moisture to the area, which is not much but more that what we've seen over the last few days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with light northwesterly winds continuing through the evening. Closer to 05-07z, winds begin shift southwesterly, staying light until 13-15Z when speeds increase to 10 to 15 kts into the afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078- 088>093. IA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.