textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A cooler, quiet day is expected Thursday with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible by Friday.

- Widespread thunderstorm chances return to the area on Saturday. Severe weather will be possible for portions of the area during this time.

- Significant rainfall accumulations are possible with Saturday's thunderstorms. A few areas could see several inches of rainfall in a short period of time. Flash flooding may be a concern.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

After a hot, dry, and windy afternoon on Wednesday, much quieter weather is settling into the region tonight into Thursday morning. Surface high pressure results in cooler temperatures under mostly sunny skies with light winds Thursday afternoon. A beautiful day in the 70s to low 80s can be expected. Heading into Friday, the pattern remains relatively quiet outside of a low chance of showers and thunderstorms. This activity will be spurred on by a fast-moving trough north of the area during the morning to afternoon hours. These showers and thunderstorms will be working with limited moisture, so little impact is anticipated. Overall, partly cloudy skies and temperatures a touch warmer than Thursday is likely for most on Friday.

Our next major weather system is set to arrive late in the day on Saturday. A pronounced trough will move from the central Rockies into the central Plains, helping to weaken the ridge. As this occurs, increasing moisture will surge north into the area over steepening lapse rates. This will set the stage for thunderstorms later in the day on Saturday. In the meantime, temperatures remain in the 80s with partly cloudy skies into the afternoon. As the trough ejects into the Plains, thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher elevations before pushing east as an organized line or cluster late in the afternoon and evening. At this time, the best chance of thunderstorms for our area appears to be Saturday evening into Saturday night. Plentiful instability and sufficient wind shear will be in place to support severe weather. The limited convective-allowing guidance that goes out that far are highlighting the potential for widespread damaging winds across parts of the central Plains if a line of thunderstorms does form. That said, the environment does appear supportive of large hail and a couple tornadoes also.

On top of top of the severe weather potential, flash flooding may be a growing concern. Abundant precipitable water will filter into the region from the south by Saturday. This will support very efficient rainfall rates from any thunderstorms that form. If a large thunderstorm complex does from and impact the region as the latest forecast models tend to indicate. A corridor of several inches of rainfall in a short period of time may develop. This would pose at least some risk of flashing flooding. This is highlighted by the excessive rainfall outlook across much of our area for Saturday.

Beyond Saturday, cooler and quieter weather will return, at least briefly, for Sunday and potentially Monday as the system departs. While the exact details remain unclear for next week, an overall active pattern looks to continue. A weakened ridge with zonal flow across much of the central and northern CONUS should support continued weather systems and rain chances heading through next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast period. Expect northwest winds through the day around 5-10kts. A few light showers are expected through 14Z at KLNK. KOMA and KOFK may be clipped by a brief shower but chances are low. Clouds decrease this afternoon. Winds will become light out of the north to northeast this evening.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.