textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms is in effect for southeast Nebraska this evening. Large hail is the main threat along with strong wind gusts. PoPs remain at 70 to 90% from southeast Nebraska toward west central Iowa late this afternoon into the evening.

- Dry conditions expected for most locations Friday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

- Storm chances continue into the weekend and into early next week. Severe weather may return Monday areawide and again for Tuesday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The H5 pattern for Saturday will see southwesterly flow return over the Northern Plains as the ridge axis pushes east. With trofing observed over the western CONUS, should see several waves eject to the northeast toward the area and work with the low level moisture flux resulting in 70 to 90% PoPs areawide Saturday. A few severe storms are also possible (5% chance) this day, with a marginal risk of severe weather encompassing much of the forecast area. Winds will be fairly breezy that day too from the south at 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Warmer temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Chances for showers and storms (30 to 50%) persist into Sunday, with the highest chances expected in western Iowa toward southeast Nebraska. Gusty southwesterly winds persist too helping us warm to the mid 70s to mid 80s.

By Monday, the western CONUS longwave trof will start to dig in over far southern California. The persistent southwest flow will allow continued disturbances to eject northeastward into the Central and Northern Plains. This results in continued PoP chances for Monday afternoon (20 to 40%), while for Tuesday (40 to 65%), the H5 trof finally lifts and approaches our area. SPC outlooks currently show a good portion of the forecast area in a 15% severe risk Monday, and areas southeast of a line from Seward to Mapleton for Tuesday. Those with any outdoor plans Monday and Tuesday should continue to pay attention to the forecast given this severe potential.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Areas of showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing at terminals this afternoon. While ceilings remain around 7,000 to 9,000 feet, should see them drop to MVFR late this afternoon into the evening hours, particularly at KOMA and KLNK. More showers and storms are forecast to develop at these respective terminals too after 23z, with some potential for large hail and strong wind gusts. Have refined timing of TEMPO groups at KOMA and KLNK for this issuance, starting them earlier by an hour. While showers largely exit terminals by 05z, the MVFR ceilings persist at KOMA and KLNK through at least 10z, eventually lifting to VFR thereafter. Some guidance keeps the MVFR ceilings a little longer till 15z, so expect potential timing adjustments with future issuances.

Winds start from the east and generally remain under 12 kts but turn north northeast overnight into Friday.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.