textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday morning with additional thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially during the afternoon and evening.

- Cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Our next chance for rain appears to be on Wednesday with increasing uncertainty beyond this timeframe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

After a quiet Friday, thunderstorms return to the forecast early Saturday morning. These thunderstorms will be in response to moisture return on a low-level jet impinging on a slowly sagging cold front. Elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of eastern Nebraska prior to sunrise. These thunderstorms will be in an environment that is forecast to have sufficient instability and shear for the development of large hail in the strongest cells. A damaging microburst can't be entirely ruled out also. These thunderstorms gradually shift east of the area through the remainder of the morning hours.

There is a bit of uncertainty on how the remainder of Saturday will transpire. Some of this evening's guidance tends to keep at least some weak convection along the cold front into the early afternoon, accelerating it's advance southward. Other guidance, has a lull in activity until later in the afternoon and evening, slowing the front's advance. In either event, a digging trough over the northern Rockies tonight will sink towards our area by afternoon. This will act to support the development of additional thunderstorms along the cold front. At this time, most of this convection is forecast to remain south of Interstate 80. With plentiful instability and wind shear, a risk of severe weather is anticipated. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but an isolated tornado remains possible if a discrete cell can remain ahead of the front. In addition, flash flooding is possible with westerly upper-level flow supporting potential training of thunderstorms along the east-west oriented front. It should be noted, that if early day convection lingers, this could inhibit later convection, so we will have to closely monitor forecast trends.

By evening, the cold front and any associated thunderstorms will push south and out of the region. A gusty north wind will fill in behind the front, ushering cooler temperatures. High pressure and cooler weather settles in on Sunday into early next week. Tuesday into Wednesday sees temperatures begin to climb once again as the pattern amplifies ahead of our next potential weather system on Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon and evening appears to be our next chance of rain for the area. After Wednesday's system, forecast model guidance begins to diverge and significant uncertainty remains on the exact evolution of the forecast pattern in the extended forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

KOFK: VFR conditions prevail through around 10Z for the terminal. Expect thunderstorms to potentially impact the terminal between 10Z and 12Z, moving in from the west. There is an additional chance for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminal between 19Z and 22Z. This chance was omitted from prevailing conditions for now due to low confidence of more than a spotty shower/storm impacting the terminal. Better chances for this secondary period will be southeast toward KLNK. Light and variable winds are expected through 15Z before becoming northerly around 12-18kts.

KOMA: VFR conditions prevail through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. Expect winds to become light and variable overnight, transitioning to the north by 21Z. There will be a chance of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms moving through the area this morning, generally between 13Z and 16Z at the terminal. Gusty winds and maybe some hail will be possible. There will be a break in the thunderstorm action for a few hours, with another chance for storms beginning around 21Z.

KLNK: VFR conditions will prevail overnight at the terminal. Expect an increase in clouds over the next few hours as our next storm system moves in from the west. Thunderstorms may impact the terminal between 12Z and 14Z. After a lull in storm potential for the rest of the morning, there is a second chance for thunderstorms after 21Z. Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming northerly around 12-18kts by 21Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.