textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon/evening. Hail, gusty winds and localized flash flooding will be the main concerns with any storms that are able to develop. An isolated tornado risk will also be possible.

- Friday brings another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms with all hazards possible.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected across at least a portion of the Omaha CWA Saturday through Wednesday as a series of disturbances move through the region.

- Expect a return to the 90s Monday through Wednesday as a ridge sets up to our northeast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The forecast period begins with showers moving into portions of eastern Nebraska this evening. Showers that were in southeastern Nebraska earlier this evening, retreated to the west, out of our CWA. Stratiform rain has been ongoing for several hours across south central Nebraska. Current radar continues to have that rainfall occurring across that area; however, there remains a chance that some of that could move back into our CWA. Across north central Nebraska into central South Dakota, a cold front front has been pushing through the region, with showers and thunderstorms ongoing. The current line of showers/storms is expected to drift to the east overnight, bringing some chances for rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder to our area.

Thursday brings some cooler temperatures with highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s. A broad upper trough orients itself across the Rockies, Central High Plains and Great Plains through the day, with a shortwave trough moving through it. Heading into the afternoon, Pwat values approaching 1.5"+ are expected, particularly across southeastern Nebraska. Storms that are able to develop could produce some heavy rain. Areas that receive multiple rounds of rain may encounter some issues with localized flash flooding. As far as the potential for severe thunderstorms go, instability will increase heading into the afternoon and evening. 0-6km bulk shear may initially range in the 10-20kt range which would result in an initial onset of a few disorganized storms developing. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to increase to around 20-30kts by mid- afternoon and lapse rates will be decent. The main concerns with storms will be hail and gusty winds along with localized heavy rainfall which may result in some flash flooding. With decent moisture in the region and low LCLs of less than 1000m, there is the potential of having a few isolated tornadoes develop across the region. We will be monitoring conditions for this potential closely.

The heat returns Friday as temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 80s. With south winds expected through the day, a few low 90s are not entirely out of the realm of possibility, particularly for areas along the Kansas-Nebraska border. Another disturbance is expected to move across the region during the day, bringing another chance for strong to severe storms. A cold front will drop into Nebraska from the north with decent instability ahead of it. Shear will be decent as well. Storms are expected to kick off along and ahead of the front with the potential for producing hail and gusty winds. There is a chance for a few isolated tornadoes as well.

Saturday and Sunday, a ridge develops over the Dakotas, slipping northeast over Canada and Minnesota. Split flow develops with a possible disturbance lifting north into south central Kansas Saturday afternoon/evening. Expect additional chances for showers and thunderstorms as this system moves through. Saturday highs will range from the mid-80s to mid-90s, while Sunday will be slightly cooler, with most areas in the mid to upper 80s.

Ridging to the northeast of the area and the exit of the disturbance heading into the start of next week week will result in highs reaching the 90s. There will be daily chances for a few showers/storms across at least a portion of the Omaha CWA through this timeframe as additional disturbances move through.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Generally VFR with patchy MVFR conditions prevail this morning as a scattered to broken cloud deck moves in at FL025. Scattered light rain showers are possible this morning, primarily at KOFK. Light southerly winds will prevail through the forecast period.

Additional widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeast Nebraska, including KOMA and KLNK, after 04/15Z. Confidence is high (75% chance) that KOMA and KLNK will see multiple rounds of showers and storms. Expect refinements in this timeframe with subsequent TAF packages. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, capable of patchy MVFR to IFR conditions and strong wind gusts. Storms will push off to the south, clearing KLNK by 05/03Z and KOMA by 05/06Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight for NEZ052-053-066>068-088>093. IA...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight for IAZ069-079-080-090-091.