textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A period of prolonged rainfall between now and Thursday evening will result in several inches of rainfall and the potential for flash flooding.

- There is a small chance of an isolated strong to severe storm or two which may produce gusty winds or a brief tornado Wednesday evening.

- Expect drier weather Friday into the start of next week along with a return of high temperatures reaching the 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The main concern in the near term forecast will be the potential for a prolonged period of rainfall across areas with fairly saturated soil. The remnants of what used to be Hurricane Polo will continue to tap into warm, moist Gulf air as it lifts to the northeast through the overnight hours and into Thursday. With Pwat values of 1.8"+ and a skinny sounding, expect efficient rainfall overnight and into tomorrow. Recent trends in models have shown the main area of rainfall shifting north, closer to the I-80 corridor. By the time all is said and done with the rainfall, we are still looking at 2-4" for many areas and localized 5"+ in other areas. Flash flooding will be possible, as as a result, the Flood Watch will remain in effect through Thursday evening. Instability will remain limited overnight; however, with a boundary cutting across eastern Nebraska and decent shear, can't entirely rule out a quick spin up or two.

Friday, the system moves into Missouri and we get a much needed break from the rain. Skies clear out as high pressure moves in. Cooler temperatures (60s) will be expected for highs.

Quieter weather is expected heading into the weekend and through the start of next week as we come under northwest flow. Expect plenty of sunshine and a drier weather pattern. Weekend highs will be in the 60s and 70s, with widespread 70s expected heading into the start of next week. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Areas of MVFR stratus are observed at terminals this morning with showers having largely ended. Fog has also developed just to the north and west of the KOFK terminal resulting in IFR ceilings. Expecting fog to lift there in the next hour or two as stronger northerly winds overspread the terminal. Ceilings should lift to VFR at terminals throughout the next few hours and stay that way for the duration of the period, but may see some lingering clouds around 2,000 to 3,000 feet. These should scatter out though enough to stay in VFR. North northeasterly winds will increase in speed by the late morning and afternoon hours, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. These should subside by 00z at terminals.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ044-045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...Flood Watch through this evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-080- 090-091.