textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty light showers and perhaps a few storms this afternoon into early Sunday (20-40% chance, highest south of I-80). Stronger storms could produce 40-50 mph gusts.

- Warming through the work week with widespread 80s and maybe a few lower 90s, especially by Friday.

- Warm and breezy conditions could lead to increased fire danger on Tuesday and Thursday.

- Mostly dry this week, with only small rain chances Monday night/Tuesday (10%) and Thursday/Friday (15-30%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Early afternoon analysis showed a cold front working south across the area, passing through Lincoln around noon. Some light returns behind the front were showing up on radar, but not much was reaching the ground per latest obs, with the 18Z OAX sounding showing plenty of low level dry air. To the west, some more robust showers were moving through central NE as some weak shortwave energy was sliding through. These should continue eastward and bring at least some light rain to portions of southeast NE/southwest IA late this afternoon into the early morning hours of Sunday. Could even see an isolated rumble of thunder during the afternoon/evening with guidance hinting at a little instability in place. In addition, a few CAMs hint at potential for some 40-50 mph wind gusts with any storms that are able to develop, with model soundings showing a good inverted-V signal. As far as precip amounts, not expecting much more than a few hundredths of an inch of accumulation in most places, but maybe a storm or two are able to squeeze out a tenth of an inch.

For Sunday, we'll be a bit cooler behind the front, with highs in the lower to mid 70s, though that's still right around average for this time of year. Could also see another day with a few sprinkles as we have an upper level trough axis sliding through, though model soundings again show lots of low level dry air, so very little, if anything is expected to reach the surface.

A warming trend will then begin for the work week as a large scale upper level ridge over the western CONUS will start to push eastward. This combined with southerly to southwesterly low level flow should lead to fairly widespread highs in the 80s most days, with some spots perhaps making a run at 90 on occasion. By Friday/Saturday, GEFS/EPS ensembles suggest probability for 90+ degree highs will increase to 20-60% across a good chunk of the area. While it will generally be a more comfortable dry heat with dewpoints mostly in the 30s and 40s and RH dropping into the teens and 20s through the work week, this could lead to some increased fire danger on any breezier days, especially in northeast NE where fuels remain dry. Currently, the windiest days are progged to be Tuesday and Thursday, when EPS mean wind gusts exceed 30 mph in at least part of the area.

Finally, precip chances through the week look fairly limited given the building ridging, though there are a couple times to keep an eye on. First is Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave trough and surface low slide along the ND/Canadian border and into MN, dragging a cold front through the forecast area. As mentioned above, not much moisture for the front to work with and strongest forcing for ascent will be near the low/wave, but a decent amount of guidance still suggests some very light QPF could clip us (10% chance). Another shortwave trough and surface boundary look to slide through sometime Thursday/Friday, though still a fair amount of spread on exact timing. Guidance does hint at some better moisture availability and instability in that timeframe, so could see some storms, and various machine learning severe weather forecasts are painting some 5-15% probabilities across our area. Still lots of details to figure out though.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing clouds around 8000-12000 ft agl. A few sprinkles or light showers remain possible this afternoon into the overnight, with the highest chances at LNK this afternoon though upstream observations show no ceiling/visibility restrictions under the precip. If a heavier shower happens to move over, could see a brief gust of 30-40 kts. Also, can't completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but highest chances are trending south of the TAF sites. Otherwise expect north to northwest winds this afternoon with a few gusts of 18-20 kts. Speeds come down this evening, with a brief period early Sunday with very light and variable winds, but direction should settle in after sunrise, westerly to northwesterly at OFK, northwesterly at OMA, and northerly to northeasterly at LNK.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.