textproduct: Omaha/Valley

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Regular chances of thunderstorms continue each day through the forecast. Late Wednesday night and late Thursday night bring the best chances (40-70%).

- Strong to severe storms are possible over the next several days. The primary hazards are damaging winds and hail.

- Wildfire smoke continues to move overhead from the northwest. Most of this smoke remains high in the atmosphere, with only a small amount reaching the surface.

THE REST OF THE WEEK...MORE OF THE SAME

The remainder of the forecast remains unsettled with regular opportunities for showers and thunder. Mesoscale features could bring afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but best chances continue to wait for the nocturnal setup of the moist boundary layer lift provided by the Great Plains LLJ. Tuesday night's chances sit at 20- 40%. Machine learning algorithms suggest a 15%+ chance of severe weather.

Wednesday night's chances are the best of the week at 50-75% as a sfc low ejects northeast out of the Rockies. This is the day that the WPC highlights a 5%+ chance of flash flooding. NBM QMD probabilities suggest a 50% chance of 1" of QPF from 00Z Thursday to 00Z Friday in the Omaha metro area (less elsewhere). Thursday and Friday's PoPs aren't far behind those "likely's" of Wednesday night.

With the extra cloud cover and possible shower activity, temps will slip to near normal on Wednesday and cooler yet (70s) on Thursday, Friday, and into the weekend. Maybe the cooler weather is what you need to get in the mood for "back to school" sales or setting up your fantasy football draft. The WPC is on board with the NBM's prognostication, leaving the area leaning cooler and wetter than normal in its 6-10 day outlooks (8/14- 8/18).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Primary concern of overnight TAFs is the threat of TSRA at KOMA. Have not included it in the 06Z issuance, but with the storms back-building, that may need to be changed rather quickly. Otherwise, the forecast will be based on winds only. Strong winds at FL017 are developing. Expect 40-45 knot winds out of the south while sfc winds are closer to 5-10 knots.

Sfc winds will be out of the southwest to start Sunday, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.

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