textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather redevelops as clouds thin out today, with additional areas of freezing fog possible tonight (30% chance) along a line from O'Neill to Beatrice.

- A cooler Friday is forecast, with chances for a wintry mix (15-25%) pushing into northeast Nebraska during the afternoon, before dissipating to the southeast after 6 PM.

- Temperatures quickly rebound into the 40s and 50s this weekend with largely dry and warmer-than-average weather into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this morning features a broad area of lift entering the Intermountain West to the east of its associated trough, while northwesterly flow over the central CONUS spills in behind the trough exiting the eastern third. A stubborn deck of stratus overhangs the eastern Nebraska into Iowa, depicted in Nighttime Microphysics imagery, and is also harboring areas of freezing fog from Neligh into north-central Nebraska. With temperatures in the lower 20s, some slickness is possible as the fog tries to freeze to surfaces through the morning, but most of the slippery conditions should stay west of the area where visibilities are at less than a mile. Expect these areas of fog to dissipate within a few hours of sunrise this morning, with the deck of stratus thinning a bit but still sticking around while wafting slightly to the northeast by this afternoon. Highs today should clear up any areas of slickness from the morning hours as they warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Overnight, another wind shift will bring a northwesterly winds and steeper lapse rates at the surface, with short-term models suggesting that another area of fog/drizzle could set up once again, only this time being along a line from O'neill to Beatrice. Temperatures will once again be falling into the twenties while this occurs, meaning limited slickness is possible with any areas of freezing fog or drizzle.

A newer curiosity for the forecast compared to ones previous is a local center of low pressure that is set to waft through the area Friday. This weak system will be aided by a shortwave trough passing through the northwesterly flow, with the column gradually becoming saturated over the course of the day. Cooler temperatures are forecast tomorrow through the day (topping out in the low-to-mid 30s), leading many CAMs to depict the arc of precipitation to be a a wintry mix. Dendrites aloft should be present based on soundings, but potent warm-air advection from the previous days will have a stout warm nose at 800 mb, either fully melting or partially melting things as they fall. As of now, northeast Nebraska looks to be the best location to see stronger upper-level support, with additional lift dissipating as it moves southeastward through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Those locations in northeast Nebraska could see a light glaze of ice and a dusting of partially- melted snow pellets if things pan out and overcome dry low-level air (15-30% chance). Areas to the south and east may see a trace of precipitation, but it will likely not be detectable and non-impactful. All in all, timing has the precipitation chances entering northeast Nebraska by noon, struggling to push southeast much through the afternoon, and dissipating while finally moving southeast during the evening.

Saturday and Beyond:

After our cooler Friday, any areas of slickness that do develop won't last very long Saturday as temperatures rebound and the aforementioned ridge to the west of the area arrives. Highs will reach into the 40s to near 50 degrees, driven by downslope flow that builds a thermal ridge up the southern and central High Plains. Temps see another bump heading into Sunday with increasing winds that will be poised to gust into the 25-35 mph day, while dry weather continues. For the first half of the work week, quasi-zonal flow will describe the mid/upper pattern with somewhat discontinuous jet streaks keeping any northward expansion of gulf moisture from occurring. Above-normal temperatures are currently forecast for much of the work week, though there is nearly 10 degrees of spread between the most likely envelope of temperatures with room for a slightly cooler outlook than is in the current forecast. While dry weather currently looks most likely, several shortwaves do move through our zonal flow that could serve as candidates for very light (but likely non-impactful) precipitation. Thursday and Friday next week will be the days to watch, where some long-range solutions depict a lee cyclone ejecting northeastward from the TX/NM region. Large differences in the timing and orientation/tilt of the trough powering this system signal for us to stay skeptical for now, but it will be well worth focusing on as we get closer to its arrival.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1053 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions prevail across all three terminals as a low-level cloud deck hangs around behind a departing cold front. Confidence is low on how long these lower ceilings will hang around, with a general improvement to MVFR conditions expected by 08-10Z with slow improvement back to VFR conditions by 18Z. Northerly winds will persist at 10-12 kts, calming and veering to southerly through the morning. Upper-level cloud cover will increase through the afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.