textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy to windy and warm Tuesday with a 20-40% chance of light rain or sprinkles. The gusty winds may lead to localized areas of very high fire danger.

- Windy Thursday night and Friday with a 30 to 70% chance of wind gusts of at least 45 mph. Highs in the 30s and 40s Thursday falling into 20s and 30s by Saturday.

- Highest measurable precipitation chances of 30 to 40% (snow) in northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa Friday. The snow and strong winds could lead to travel impacts (10-30% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a weak mid-level disturbance moving through the mid MO Valley this afternoon with a relatively small area of mid/upper-level cloudiness associated with it's passage. Temperatures are considerably warmer today than previous days with readings in the 50s to low 60s as of 3 PM. Temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows in the 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday into Tuesday night, a shortwave trough currently emerging from the lee of the Canadian Rockies is forecast to amplify as it progresses through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing series of vorticity lobes are expected to settle south through the central Plains and Ozarks. Increased forcing for ascent tied to those features will contribute to top-down saturation of the atmosphere, and a chance of light rain or sprinkles (peak PoPs of 30-40% in northeast NE) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Some of the light precipitation could mix with light snow before ending Tuesday night.

At the surface, the primary cyclone will remain linked to the lead disturbance well to our northeast; however, a trailing front will move through the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. A tightening pressure gradient on the backside of the front will support strong northwest with gusts of 30-40 mph Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures and the rangeland fire danger category will be influenced by the extent of cloud cover and any associated areas of light precipitation. This forecast update will indicate temperatures in the 50s to low 60s with rangeland fire danger in the high to locally very high category.

Wednesday and Wednesday night:

This will be an "in-between-systems" day with surface high pressure quickly building through the area. Winds will remain breezy from the north with cooler high temperatures in the 30s.

Thursday through Sunday:

A vigorous shortwave trough and attendant mid-level jet streak are forecast to move through the mid MO Valley Thursday and Thursday night, following by a secondary vorticity ribbon Friday afternoon into Friday night. In the low levels, a cold front attendant to the lead wave is expected to move through the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. We'll see a brief period of warmer temperatures ahead of the front with highs in the upper 30s and 40s Thursday afternoon. A colder air mass will filter into the region behind the front with highs falling into the 30s Friday, 20s and 30s Saturday, and mainly 30s Sunday.

Northwest winds are expected to strengthen considerably behind the surface front Thursday night into Friday with the 12z EPS indicating a 30-70% chance of wind gusts of at least 45 mph Friday. The winds are expected to diminish Friday night.

The 12z global models continue to indicate the best measurable precipitation chances to our northeast during this time frame with the highest local PoPs of 30-40% occurring Friday in northeast NE and west-central IA. Precipitation type at that time would be snow with the 12z GrandEnsemble (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) indicating a 40-70% chance of at least a tenth of an inch accumulation. The snow and strong winds could lead to reduced visibilities and resultant travel impacts (10-30% chance).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1009 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. High clouds will pass by overnight with westerly winds gradually veering to northwesterly. LLWS is expected to continue at all terminals as northwesterly winds increase to 40-50 kts at FL015. LLWS will gradually diminish by 13/09-13Z. Northwesterly winds will increase Tuesday morning, with gusts up to 22-26 kts continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

A few sprinkles/light rain showers are possible (15-30% chance) Tuesday afternoon. However, a dry sub-cloud layer brings lower confidence in rain reaching the ground. The best chance of rain will be at KOFK, with odds leaning more towards virga at KOMA and KLNK.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.