textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a conditional threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Storms could have very large hail (2+ inch) and damaging winds (60-80 mph).

- After a brief lull in activity late tonight, more storms develop west of a Neligh to Wahoo to Nemaha line (20-40% chance) after midnight.

- Storms clear late Saturday morning leaving a pleasant day. Periodic storm chances continue into next week.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Another mid-level impulse will arrive by early Sunday morning, and combined with continue low level thermal advection, will see another round of storms across our western counties (20-50% chance). At this time, severe weather appears unfavorable. The southwest US H5 ridge will remain in place for much of the long term forecast period, placing us in northwesterly flow with several mid-level impulses riding it. This will lead to continued chances for storms for much of the period, but the best chances appear to be late Sunday into Monday (50 to 70% chance, especially across northeast Nebraska), Tuesday (20 to 40% chance areawide), and late Thursday. The various machine learning severe weather algorithms would suggest at least a small severe threat is possible during those days with any activity, but at this time it's still too early to dig into specifics.

Temperatures Sunday remain cool in the upper 70s and low 80s, while highs in the 80s are expected through Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions are observed across terminals this afternoon. 1731z radar imagery shows an area of widely scattered showers and storms across eastern Nebraska. A more organized cluster of storms is seen just west of the KOFK terminal, and should arrive there within the next two hours. Another decaying cluster is seen just southwest of KOMA and northeast of KLNK. At this time, confidence is low for these storms to affect terminals, but will make amendments if needed. More redevelopment of storms could occur after 07z and clip KOFK and KLNK, but chances remain less than 30%. Winds remain under 12 kts for the duration of the TAF cycle, becoming north northeast by the morning hours. Could see some fog develop at KOMA by 11z, but chances remain too low (10%) for inclusion in TAF.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.