textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- River flooding gradually comes to an end this evening.

- 30 to 50% chance for some patchy fog along the Missouri River Valley into southwest Iowa late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Dry conditions persist for most of this week for areas that were hard hit with last week's floods. Plenty of sunshine and highs in the 70s and 80s are expected each day. Windy conditions return for Saturday and may lead to fire weather concerns in northeast Nebraska.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The aforementioned sfc high should be sitting over the mid-Missouri Valley area by Thursday morning. Some guidance tries to spark off showers or isolated storms in northeast Nebraska during the morning and afternoon hours, largely forced by some H8 WAA rounding the backside of the high. However, activity may struggle to reach the sfc given the dry low level air seen in forecast BUFKIT soundings. Highs warm to the 70s.

An H8 baroclinic zone will swing through the area early Friday morning. Strong WAA and a 30 to 40 kt LLJ could help force some showers or storms. With this forecast update, PoPs of 15 to 30% are forecast for early Friday morning primarily northeast of a line from Verdigre to Tekamah to Missouri Valley. Highs rebound to the low 80s. Expect to see some breeziness too as a tight pressure gradient sets up ahead of our next approaching system.

Models depict the H5 pattern with an intensifying longwave trof across the western CONUS on Saturday. Just ahead of the feature, should see a sfc low spin up and track northeast into the Dakotas and Minnesota. While the feature stays well north of the area, the tight pressure gradient and PBL mixing into a 45 to 50 kt H8 LLJ will result in windy conditions. Expect gusts of 40 to 45 mph, and a few isolated gusts up to 50 mph are not out of the question, particularly in far northeast Nebraska. The bulk of GEFS and EPS ensembles suggest gusts of 40 to 45 mph across northeast Nebraska too. Will need to keep an eye on fire weather that day, especially in northeast Nebraska where we could see Red Flag Warning conditions met. Expect another warm day with highs in the 80s.

Temperatures cool slightly for Sunday before another front moves through Monday, cooling temperatures to the 60s and 70s. Precip chances arrive too for Monday at 15 to 20%, but considerable spread is seen amongst model guidance regarding timing and placement of features.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions this evening with light winds out of the west or southwest. We'll see winds shift to northerly overnight tonight. Only concern is potential for some patchy fog along the Missouri River and in areas of southwest Iowa. This could potentially impact KOMA, so have SCT002 in the TAF package from 10-13Z. Any fog should clear by 13Z with VFR conditions under mostly clear skies through the rest of the TAF period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.