textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend begins this weekend, with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s by Monday.

- Widely scattered showers and storms are possible through the holiday weekend, with a strong storm or two possible Sunday. Dry periods will outnumber wet ones.

- Periodic precipitation chances continue Tuesday through the remainder of the workweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Saturday through Monday...

A mid-level low pivoting across the northern Plains this evening pushed a cold front eastward through the area. A broken line of thunderstorms developed along the front, with a few stronger embedded cores. Storms will continue moving east and should exit the area shortly after midnight.

Surface high pressure briefly slides across the region Saturday as mid-level ridging builds into the central and southern Plains, bringing a warming trend through the holiday weekend. Highs are expected to reach the mid 70s Saturday, low to mid 80s Sunday, and upper 80s to low 90s Monday. Mostly dry conditions will prevail, though low-end, near-daily shower and storm chances remain possible as weak waves pass through the region.

The first chance arrives Saturday evening, mainly across northeast Nebraska where a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Weak shear and modest instability should limit storm organization. Chances increase slightly Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak surface trough moves near the NE/SD border. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and bulk shear near 30 kts may support a strong storm or two, with the best chances across northeast NE into southwest IA. Damaging wind gusts (up to 65 mph) and hail (up to 1 inch) are the primary hazards. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for severe weather in this area. Additional widely scattered showers or storms will be possible Monday as temperatures warm (likely to convective temperatures) and instability increases, though weak shear and limited forcing should keep the chance limited. Overall, dry periods will greatly outweigh wet ones through the holiday weekend, but those with outdoor plans should stay weather aware.

Tuesday and Beyond...

A mid- to upper-level low is expected to move onshore across the western CONUS early next week and slowly deepen as it shifts eastward. Moisture return will increase ahead of this system, with highs generally in the low 80s through much of the work week.

Periodic precipitation chances return late Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the workweek as several weak disturbances move through the region. PoPs generally range from 20-50%, though timing and locations will likely be refined as guidance better resolves each wave. No particular day stands out for severe weather at this time, as instability appears modest and stronger shear/forcing look displaces from the area. GEFS and EPS machine- learning guidance also keep the better severe probabilities focused to our south and west. A shift in disturbance tracks could change this, but for now, the severe weather signal remains limited.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals late this evening and will persist for the remainder of the TAF cycle. Ceilings will continue to lift at KOMA as lingering 5,000 ft ceilings push east. Will see ceilings lower to 8,000 to 12,000 feet by late this afternoon into the evening at terminals. There is a low end chance (15-20%) for a scattered shower or storm to impact KOFK after 00z. West northwest winds remain under 12 kts for much of the TAF period, switching to the south southeast by 00z but remaining under 12 kts.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.