textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous cold is expected Thursday through Saturday nights, with wind chill values falling into the teens to 30 below zero.

- Light snow chances (20-40%) return this afternoon for far northeast NE & west-central IA, with accumulations up to an inch.

- Strong winds are anticipated Wednesday, with northwesterly gusts of 35-45 mph. Snow showers combined with gusty winds may bring brief visibility drops (15-30% chance). Little to no accumulation is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Today...

Quiet and seasonably cool conditions are in place this morning across the area. Objective analysis depicts a longwave mid- to upper- level trough anchored over the east-central CONUS, placing the region beneath predominantly northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, we remain along the northern fringe of a broad corridor of high pressure centered over the Mid-South. This has resulted in relatively calm conditions overnight, with a cool air mass supporting morning lows in the single digits to around 12 degrees. Wind chill values range from the positive single digits to a few degrees below zero.

Winds will gradually veer to southerly this afternoon as the surface high shifts eastward and a lee cyclone develops over the High Plains. The return to southerly flow will promote WAA, allowing temperatures to rebound into the 30s to low 40s by this afternoon.

This afternoon into the evening, a shortwave disturbance rotating around the parent trough will generate a band of snow across southeastern South Dakota and northern Iowa. While the core of this activity is expected to remain north and east of the forecast area, model guidance has trended a bit further south with this band of snow, allowing it to sweep across northeast Nebraska and west- central Iowa this afternoon. Pops currently peak at 20-40%, with accumulations expected to top out around an inch in extreme northeast Nebraska.

Wednesday...

Another shortwave disturbance is expected to pivot across the northern Plains on Wednesday. As the region becomes positioned between surface high pressure to the south and a surface low to the north, an associated cold front will approach from the northwest. The tightening surface pressure gradient will support strong northwesterly winds, with gusts of 35-45 mph expected. HREF guidance suggests a 30% probability of isolated gusts exceeding 50 mph, particularly across northeast Nebraska.

Despite the windy conditions, Wednesday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures into the 40s. The combination of gusty winds and modestly dry relative humidity will result in elevated fire weather concerns, especially across portions of southeast Nebraska.

While the primary frontal passage is expected to remain largely dry, model soundings indicate a shallow saturated layer with modest instability in the dendritic growth zone, above a shallow but notably dry sub-cloud layer. Should a shallow snow shower be able to overcome the dry air (PoPs 15-30%), brief and localized reductions in visibility will be possible when combined with the gusty winds. Accumulations will be minimal (under one inch), given the transient and low-coverage nature of any showers.

Thursday and Beyond...

Highs on Thursday will remain in the upper 20s to low 30s, near to slightly below seasonal norms. However, this will be short-lived as a deepening mid- to upper-level low over Ontario drives a secondary cold front southward through the region. In its wake, temperatures will fall rapidly during the latter half of the day as a much cooler air mass overspreads the region.

By Friday morning, lows are expected to drop into the negative single digits, with lingering gusty winds behind the front producing wind chill values between 15 and 30 degrees below zero. The lowest readings are expected in northeast Nebraska. These values represent the coldest conditions of the season thus far. For context, Omaha/Eppley and Lincoln have yet to record a subzero temperature this season. Daytime heating will be largely ineffective within the arctic air mass, with Friday afternoon highs only reaching the single digits.

Very cold conditions are expected to persist into Saturday. Morning lows are again expected in the negative single digits, accompanied by wind chills of 15 to 25 degrees below zero. Afternoon temperatures will struggle to recover, with highs generally limited to the teens.

Snow chances also return this weekend as an open wave approaching the desert southwest traces a broad area of forcing for ascent across the southern Plains. While the majority of impactful precipitation is expected to remain south of the forecast area, long-range guidance continues to show variability in the northward extent of the precipitation shield. Given these uncertainties, PoPs currently remain in the 20-40% range Friday into Saturday. EPS/EPS-AIFS guidance currently brings a 20-40% chance of snowfall totals exceeding one inch.

Another round of dangerous cold will be present Sunday morning, with lows in the negative single digits and wind chills of 10 to 20 degrees below zero. Temperatures will slowly rebound Sunday into Monday, with Sunday highs expected in the 20s before the 30s return on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions favored through most of the period, though do expect a band of light snow to pass through the area late this afternoon/evening which could bring brief MVFR to IFR conditions. OFK is the most likely to be impacted (50% chance) while OMA and LNK are less likely (20-30% chance), so did not include mentions there. Outside of snow, expect clouds around 4000-8000 ft agl overnight with skies clearing Wednesday morning. Winds will remain southerly around 10 kts through the afternoon before becoming westerly to northwesterly as the band of snow moves through. Gusts will start to pick up late in the period (25-30 kts), but will become even stronger after 18Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.