textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and pleasant conditions this afternoon, with high temperatures in the mid 80s.

- Patchy fog is possible overnight, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning and again Sunday night. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue next week, with high temperatures generally in the mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Today and Tonight...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis late this morning depict an amplified ridge in place over the western CONUS with subsequent troughing in place over the eastern CONUS. Sandwiched between the two, we continued to reside under northwesterly flow aloft as a train of disturbance slide over the ridge and into the area. Surface high pressure is filtering into the area following the departure of morning showers and storms, helping to bring a dry and pleasant afternoon with plenty of sunshine. High temperatures are expected to peak in the mid 80s, near seasonal norms for mid-August.

Patchy fog development is expected overnight, especially over far eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa where clear skies will bring radiational cooling and winds remain the lightest. Model soundings indicate a narrow saturated layer near the surface, likely confining fog to low-lying and wind protected areas.

Sunday...

Late tonight into Sunday morning, a round of convection is expected to initiate east of the Front Range as a shortwave disturbance pivots into the area. Into Sunday morning, the convection is expected to progress eastward across Nebraska, bringing PoPs of 40-60% into east-central Nebraska, generally in the 4-9 AM timeframe. Instability will gradually decrease as storm progress towards the area, limiting overall storm intensity and coverage with eastern progression. Lingering cloud cover, and perhaps a shower or two lingering into the afternoon, will keep high temperatures confined to the upper 70s and low 80s.

Later Sunday, convection is expected to initiate across east-central South Dakota as an midlevel shortwave disturbance pivots into the northern Plains. Convection is expected to becoming more widespread into the late evening/early overnight period of the LLJ ramps up, helping to form a larger cluster of thunderstorms that will eventually push southeastward, into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. How far south this complex progresses into the area remains in question, as instability remains maximized around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in northeast Nebraska, decreasing southward. However, increasing low- level moisture transport and WAA could help support scattered thunderstorms through the overnight period. For now, PoPs peak in the 50-75% range north of Interstate-80. A strong to severe storm can't be ruled out, though the limited instability over much of the area should help to limit any widespread severe weather.

Monday and Beyond...

Into the work week, we will continue in the pattern or northwesterly flow aloft with a train of disturbances bringing periodic precipitation chances. High temperatures will generally reside in the low to mid 80s through the week. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, a more potent disturbance pushing across the central and northern Plains will push a cold front southward across the area. The front won't have much of an impact on temperatures, but will bring a round of 30-50% PoPs to the area. Periodic 15% PoPs exist through the week, though dry periods are expected to outweigh wet ones.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. Light northerly winds will continue, shifting to southerly tonight. A few diurnally driven cumulus clouds are expected around FL070 this afternoon. Patchy fog and MVFR visibility potential will move in Sunday morning (23/10-13Z), though this chance has been left out of the current TAF package due to the low confidence in coverage. Scattered showers, with an isolated thunderstorm possible, will approach KOFK and KLNK from the west after 23/12Z, with a 20% chance of impacting the terminals.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.