textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Nightly chances for showers and storms through the weekend into early next week, with warm and humid conditions.

- A summer-like pattern setting up next week will keep warm, humid weather in place with additional daily chances for showers and storms through the week.

- Potential for hotter weather just beyond the forecast period starting next weekend going into following week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A MCV is moving north over eastern Nebraska this evening, generating the ongoing showers and occasionally flaring up new convection. Weak shear keep these storms short-lived and weak. This will continue its trek northward, not clearing our area until closer to 5AM. Another weak shortwave has been producing robust storms along a line across western and central Kansas this evening. these are mostly being forced by the nose of the low-level jet over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. We'll be watching these storms as the boundary progresses northeastward toward our area. CAM guidance wants to pull these storms eastward at the last minute as it approaches the Nebraska state line, likely due to weakening of the low-level jet later in the night. This should keep any stronger storms from getting into our area, or if they do, should rapidly weaken. We will likely see another band of storms develop as the shortwave pivots northeast across our area, though, mostly exiting the area by 10 AM.

Saturday is looking like another muggy, warm day with air as thick as pea soup. Though temperatures will peak in the low 80s, dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s are going to make you sweat. With all the moisture around, we'll see a few isolated showers pop up Saturday afternoon/evening. Nothing severe expected. What we're watching more closely is a more substantial trough that will lift north across our area Saturday night into early Sunday potentially bringing a few strong to severe storms into southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa around midnight Saturday night into early Sunday. Primary threats would be wind and hail, as storms will be elevated in nature.

Another system to watch for Saturday night into early Sunday is a convective line forecast to develop over western Nebraska and South Dakota Saturday evening and push east toward our area overnight. Guidance has it lifting northeast following the instability gradient into eastern South Dakota, but there is some potential for storms in northeast Nebraska as well from this MCS, mainly closer to 5-7 AM Sunday morning.

As the trough over the northern Rockies continues to lift north into the Dakotas on Sunday, a surface low develops over South Dakota, pulling drier air east into our area from the Southwest. The pooling of moisture along and ahead of this boundary will lead to additional shower and storm development Sunday afternoon, clearing the area after midnight as the dry line and eventually a weak cold front move in overnight.

Monday should be dry through at least the daytime hours as ridging starts to build over the Central CONUS and high pressure sinks down over the region. With the surface high expanding eastward, we potentially could see a moisture stream sneak back north into our area Monday night on the western flank of the anticyclonic circulation. This could mean the development of an MCS over western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening, weakening as it continues east into our area overnight.

As we go into midweek next week, we continue to see strong ridging build up just east of our area, leading to a fairly good overnight MCS pattern. Moisture streaming up the Central Plains from the Gulf will generate afternoon storms again over western Nebraska on Tuesday, developing into an MCS and pushing east into our area overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday. An upper-level trough nudges the ridge further east Wednesday and Thursday, pushing the moisture stream farther east, bringing afternoon storm potential into our area Wednesday-Friday, developing into and MCS that pushes east into Iowa overnight.

A more substantial blocking ridge is forecast to build up next weekend, likely bringing hot summer conditions starting a couple weeks early. CPC is on board with this forecast, predicting a 60-70 percent chance of above normal temperatures for the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions that start the forecast period will be short lived as ceilings decrease quickly overnight, with generally MVFR ceilings expected at KOMA and KLNK and IFR to patchy LIFR conditions at KOFK. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected overnight. Spotty coverage is bringing low confidence in impacts at the terminals, with the best chances (50%) at KOMA during the morning hours. Amendments will be made if confidence increases in timing and coverage.

Ceilings will gradually break up and improve late Saturday morning, bringing a return to VFR conditions at all terminals. Southeasterly winds will increase in speed, with gusts of 20-25 kts expected through the afternoon.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.