textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday (30-60%) and Sunday (60-90%).

- A few severe storms may be possible Saturday afternoon-evening (5-10%) and Sunday late afternoon-night (15-20%).

- Near normal temperatures into next week with on and off shower and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Today through Monday...

Northerly winds behind yesterday's stormy cold front will continue to bring cooler air into the region today. By noon temperatures had only reached the mid 50s across the forecast area.

A peek at Water vapor imagery reveals a large low pressure system spinning along the southern Canadian border to our north. Meanwhile, a second Low is attempting to form out of the Colorado Rockies. High pressure over the Central Plains, which kept us dry today, will shift east by Saturday. Behind it, a cold front will develop, linking the two lows.

Showers and a few storms will likely develop along this boundary to our west late tonight and into early Saturday morning. Rain is expected to drift eastward through the day Saturday, with the greatest chance for showers over northeast Nebraska. While shear looks to be moderate, at 40-50 kts over northwest portions of the area, instability of only a couple hundred J/Kg may be just enough to support a few strong storms. On the other hand, a few forecast soundings indicate some near surface dry air that could inhibit convection. Despite this, several CAMs indicate a strong to severe storm or two may be possible, especially over eastern Nebraska, Saturday afternoon and evening. This potential is also highlighted by a Marginal Risk (5-10%) by the SPC.

A reinforcing upper level shortwave helps the surface low become more well established on Sunday. The boundary that moved through on Saturday will be lifted back north as a warm front Sunday, bringing another round of showers and storms. Strong to severe storms will be possible during the late afternoon and into the overnight hours, as the low tracks from southwest to northeast. The threat of severe weather will greatly depend on the track that the low takes, and a could be inhibited by daytime precipitation, or the warm front not drifting quite far enough to the north. However, current model runs show 40-50 kts of bulk shear and 500-1000 J/Kg of CAPE, suggesting plenty of potential. Therefore, SPC has placed us in a Slight Risk (15-20%) for severe storms Sunday, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats.

Temperatures are expected to be just above normal, in the upper 60s and low 70s through the weekend. Overnight lows will remain above freezing, in the 40s tonight, and 40s and 50s Saturday night.

Showers and storms will linger through Monday morning and into the afternoon as the low continues to track northeast. Widespread beneficial rainfall is expected. LREF GrandEnsemble probabilities peg the forecast area with a 45-70% probability of at least an inch of rain from the weekend through Monday, the greatest chance being over northeast Nebraska. Temperatures will dip a few degrees behind the system. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 50s in northeast Nebraska and near 70 across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Off and on shower and thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday and into the latter half of next week, as a handful of shortwaves rumble through the Central Plains. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than we've had recently, but still fairly close to normal, in the mid 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail this evening into Saturday afternoon. Light winds are generally easterly with surface high pressure north of the area. A slight shift to northeasterly winds is expected overnight before more easterly winds redevelop Saturday morning. Clouds will begin to increase as our next weather system approaches. VFR conditions are expected to continue, but MVFR ceilings may approach OFK late in the period. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday morning. Current forecast expectations keeps coverage widely scattered and confidence in impacts remains low at this time.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.