textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of storms are expected through Friday. Severe weather is possible with large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding the main concerns. An isolated tornado is also possible.

- Daily chances for showers and storms are expected across at least some of the area from Saturday through Wednesday as a series of disturbances move through the region.

- Expect a return to the 90s Monday through Wednesday as a ridge sets up to our northeast. Excessive heat may be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

An active period of weather begins today. A convectively, reinforced shortwave is lifting northeast over the central Plains this morning. A low-level MCV is also evident south of KUEX. These features will support the re-intensification and development of storms through this afternoon into this evening. A few stronger storms are already developing across northern Kansas within the broader MCV. As we move through the remainder of this morning into the afternoon, daytime heating into the upper 70s to lower 80s will help destabilize the environment. While overall shear remains marginal (20-30kts), low- level SRH will be higher (200 m^2/s^2) and more supportive of organized storms. A very moist environment has taken shape as well. These factors will support at least some risk of damaging winds or a brief tornado or two. Large hail is less likely with a very moist environment and a high freezing level. The other significant concern is flash flooding. Precipitable water values are exceeding 1.5" which is above the 90th percentile for today. This supports torrential rainfall with rainfall rates easily becoming as high as 1+" per hour. With this concern, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa into tonight. The one limiting factor is that once storms develop, the eventual cold pool should keep storms moving to the east, limiting training potential. Any showers and storms taper off after midnight as temperatures slowly cool into the 60s.

Heading into Friday, a lull is anticipated as subsidence and mid- level height rises behind today's system keeps a cap on storms throughout much of the day. It will get hot as a result, with temperatures easily pushing the upper 80s to near 90. Plentiful moisture remains in place and this will be a loaded gun by late afternoon. Very high levels of instability are anticipated with CAPE values rising to between 3000-4000 j/kg. A weak disturbance moving into the region and a broader trough over the Upper Mississippi River Valley helps to erode the cap through evening. An isolated storm remains possible through the late afternoon, but eventual storm development appears most likely along a slowly southward sagging front. Along and behind the front, storms are anticipated. The high instability and effective shear around 30 kts support a risk of large hail, perhaps very large, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. That said, continued storm development along the front may eventually limit the severe risk. This then leads to the other hazard on Friday of flash flooding. Similar to today, very high precipitable water and slow-moving storms support torrential rainfall. If storms train along the front, especially across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, this may be especially concerning. A Flash Flood Watch may be required with this potential.

The pattern quiets down a little this weekend as a trough passes south of the area. This limits our thunderstorm potential on Saturday. It will be muggy as temperatures warm into the upper 80s. Storms return to the forecast on Sunday as a long series of disturbances moves across the area heading into next week. These disturbances lift out of the Rockies towards the north Plains as a summertime pattern takes shape. A building ridge over the central and eastern CONUS with a trough over the western CONUS supports warming temperatures and continued storm chances each day. Widespread 90s are likely by Tuesday before approaching the mid to upper 90s by the end of next week. Isolated severe weather remains possible with thunderstorm chances, but the main hazard begins to shift towards excessive heat as it remains muggy as temperatures climb.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

MVFR conditions continue at the terminals early in the forecast period as showers move across the region.

KOFK: Showers have tapered off at the terminal and additional shower/storm activity is not currently anticipated during the forecast period. Ceilings will fluxuate between VFR and MVFR through the overnight hours, returning to VFR by 15Z. Expect light winds out of the southeast through sunrise, with winds switching to the east by 14Z.

KOMA: MVFR conditions persist at the terminal through the evening hours and into tonight. A mention of a few rain showers was maintained in prevailing conditions through 02Z as an ongoing line of showers and weak storms extending from Tecumseh to KCBF continues to move to the northeast. Winds become southerly around 5-10kts after midnight.

KLNK: MVFR conditions continue at the terminal through around 19Z before improving to VFR. A few showers are beginning to pop up southwest of the terminal and are moving northeast. As a result, a mention of vicinity showers is in the forecast for the next few hours. The overall line of shower/weak thunderstorm activity will continue to move to the northeast over the next few hours. Expect southeast winds to become southerly around 06Z with winds generally 5-10kts after 09Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Friday for NEZ052-053-066>068- 088>093. IA...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Friday for IAZ069-079-080-090-091.