textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-normal temperatures continue, with highs generally in the 40s today, warming into the 50s on Sunday, and 60s on Monday. Parts of east-central Nebraska may surpass 70 on Monday.

- Ongoing warmth increases the potential for river ice breakup and ice jams. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers.

- Periodic precipitation chances (15-30%) return Wednesday and persist through the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Tonight through Monday...

Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depict a mid-to upper-level ridge axis pushing into the central and southern Plains. Meanwhile, an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS has forced a diffuse cold front through the area earlier this morning. The post-frontal airmass won't have much of an effect on temperatures today as low-level flow has transitioned back to southerly, bringing afternoon highs into the mid 40s to low 50s. While these afternoon highs are 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms for early February, they have been met with 25-35 mph wind gusts.

A warm front is expected to push across the area on Sunday. While the aforementioned ridging aloft will dampen over the next few days, another round of WAA will allow for temperatures to climb Sunday into Monday. Highs on Sunday are expected in the 50s to low 60s, with Monday's highs climbing into the widespread 60s. Monday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the period. High temperatures on Monday are likely to reach the low 70s in east-central Nebraska (60-75% probability, per the NBM). Record high temperatures may be challenged on Monday at Omaha (63 degrees, set in 1954), Lincoln (68 degrees, set in 1954) and Norfolk (68 degrees, set in 1954) on Monday. Fire weather concerns will also need monitored for Monday as portions of eastern Nebraska reside under very high fire danger. While winds will be on the lighter side (southwesterly gusts of 15-25 mph), afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to dip into the 22-30% range.

The primary concern through the next few days will be the potential for ice jams as continued mild temperatures promote river ice breakup and movement. This increases the risk for ice to become lodged and cause sudden rises in water levels. Accordingly, a Flood Watch will remain in effect through Monday evening for the Platte, Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers. River gauges and observational reports will be monitored closely through this period.

Tuesday and Beyond...

Tuesday through the remainder of the week, generally zonal flow aloft will persist with a series of shortwave disturbances bringing periodic light precipitation chances. A surface cold front sweeping across the area early Tuesday will bring high temperatures back into the 40s to low 50s. High temperatures will generally persist in the 40s (5-10 degrees above seasonal norms) with overnight lows in the 20s through the remainder of the work week.

The pattern aloft will transition more to a split flow pattern, with periodic disturbances passing to our north and south. With this in mind, 15-30% PoPs enter the area Wednesday and continue through Saturday. However, expect dry periods to outnumber wet ones. Moisture through the work week will remain limited, with GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS 50th percentile QPF peaking under 0.05". Precipitation type will also be something to watch, as overnight lows dip below freezing daily. Currently, the better snow potential looks to stay to our north, with only a 10-30% probability of at least one inch across northeast Nebraska. GEFS/AI-GEFS suggests a potentially more robust system moving through the region next weekend, while EPS/EPS-AIFS solutions keep the system weaker and track it farther south of the area. This feature will be monitored for trends as it approaches.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1051 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will be the primary concern this afternoon as southerly gusts of 20-27 kts persist. Winds will gradually calm under 12 kts by 08/00-02Z, veering to northwesterly overnight. Scattered high clouds will pass through this afternoon around FL250.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NEZ016-017-031>033- 042>045-050>053-067. IA...None.