textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- An active weather pattern continues with several chances of showers and thunderstorms into next week.

- There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats with any severe thunderstorms that develop.

- Severe thunderstorms may again be possible this weekend, but confidence is low at this time. Another round of severe storms is anticipated by Monday across far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A split flow pattern is noted in upper air analysis with a compact upper-low over southern Ontario and Lake Superior with a broad trough over Baja. With the compact low to our north, a cold front pushed through the region Wednesday afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms occurred along and just behind this front, but only light accumulations occurred over portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. This activity should gradually weaken and dissipate tonight. Temperatures fall into the 30s to low 40s by Thursday morning with the cooler airmass behind the aforementioned cold front.

In response to the southern stream trough and a digging trough over the northern Rockies, the cold front will quickly stall and begin to retreat back north as a warm front heading into Thursday afternoon. At this time, forecast guidance brings the warm front north to approximately the Nebraska-Kansas border, but there remains disagreement on the exact placement of the front. A few forecast models bring the warm front closer to the I-80 corridor. Where the front ends up will determine the expected temperatures. Areas north of the front hold in the upper 50s to low 60s, while 70s are likely south of the front. A few stray showers or a thunderstorm is possible during the late morning and early afternoon north of the front, but chances are relatively low compared to late afternoon and evening. By late afternoon and evening, the northern Rockies trough will begin to support more robust thunderstorm development along and north of the warm front. Thunderstorms are almost certain for much of east and southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. With these thunderstorms there is a threat of severe weather. At this time there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5), mainly for large hail and damaging winds, though a tornado can't be ruled out along and south of the warm front. With that said, most storms are likely to be sub- severe with limited instability with northern extent. Thunderstorms will begin to move out of the area as the warm front becomes a cold front once again and sags south of the region.

A brief lull is anticipated on Friday with cooler temperatures in place behind the front. This quickly changes heading into the weekend as the split flow pattern evolves into a larger western CONUS trough. This development should support return flow by Saturday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture. A few leading shortwaves may drive thunderstorm development and perhaps severe weather, but there remains some uncertainty on these specific details. Saturday sees showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours as the warm front lifts north through the region, with at least some threat of afternoon redevelopment. The better chance of thunderstorms is forecast for Sunday as the trough draws closer to the region along with a slow moving front. Gusty south winds are likely as moisture streams north. Thunderstorms continue to be in the forecast heading into Monday as the trough finally begins to eject east across the Plains. Severe weather is currently anticipated for at least far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa on Monday.

Beyond this, shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, but a cooler, more stable airmass behind a cold front should provide a lull in severe weather through the middle of next week. That said, return flow redevelops towards the end of next week, signaling more potential for active weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Scattered showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder are expected to develop between 12-20Z today. This afternoon, a better chance for a line of storms will develop along a warm front draped from near KLNK through KOMA. Currently, the best chance for thunder will be from 00-05Z at KLNK and 17-21Z at KOMA. A second round of storms could reach KOMA from 00-05Z this evening. The timing of these storms will depend on the location of the warm front. If it drifts farther north, storms may linger longer. However if it shifts south, they could miss the terminals entirely. The latest runs have trended slightly later with the development of stronger storms and a touch farther south than I-80. Lower ceilings ranging from MVFR to IFR will likely be coincident with the storms and drift southeast with the warm front, effecting KLNK from 00-08Z and KOMA from 21-06Z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.