textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 40-80% chance for rain and storms on Friday. Far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa will need to be on the lookout for thunderstorms in the afternoon.

- Mainly dry weather with cooler temperatures is forecast for the weekend.

- Mild temperatures with off an on precipitation chances are expected next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed a shortwave lifting into the Upper Midwest as a closed upper low propagated east towards WY. Surface obs showed northwest flow with dry air advection across the forecast area in the wake of the initial system.

The forecast for tonight and into Friday will be driven by the closed upper low moving in from the west. There is reasonable agreement from the 12Z operational solutions with the surface low tracking across southeast NEB and southwest IA through Friday afternoon. This is expected to keep the warm sector and potential for severe weather confined to the far southeastern counties of the forecast area. Steep mid level lapse rates and good bulk shear of 50KT to 60KT could allow from some rotating updrafts and a large hail threat. However CAMs continues to show the convective mode favoring a linear system with models showing the surface front moving nearly 20Kt to 25KT. This could have the tendency to undercut the updrafts if they are not able to propagate off the boundary and limit their ability to strengthen to severe levels. Further north near the SD state line, the NBM is cooling surface temps into the lower 30s with the prospect for a light wintry mix. Forecast soundings show a low level warm air advection pattern with easterly surface winds generally keeping a neutral advection pattern. With a lot of the operational guidance keeping temps more in the middle 30s, have trended the forecast a little warmer thinking cloud cover and a lack of strong cold air advection would make it hard for freezing rain or snow to cause much of an impact. Large spreads were noted in the ensembles and NBM for highs Friday given the cyclone passing through. With strong warm air advection to the south and limited insolation and a cold start to the day north, think the NBM forecast highs are a reasonable first iteration.

There is good agreement in the operational solutions for the system to exit to the east Friday evening with a dry slot advecting into western IA. Most of the 12Z guidance is keeping any wrap around moisture north of the forecast area. With this in mind I trended POPs from the NBM lower for much of the area. Still have some small chance POPs across the far northern counties for some light precip. The NBM also keeps some small POPs in across for northeast NEB into Saturday morning. Opted to leave these intact, but have low confidence in the precip chances being this high as the surface low lifts towards Lake Superior while a dry northwest wind persist.

Surface ridging and northwest flow aloft are expected to bring dry weather to the region Sunday. The synoptic pattern looks to transition next week from a northwest flow regime to one with upper level energy digging into the southwestern U.S. This should limit chances for a strong upper ridge to develop. So mild weather should persist with the NBM showing low end POPs just about every period. Confidence in the POP forecast is low as ensembles show mixed signals for precip. Perhaps the better chance for precip comes late in the period as the models try to bring a boundary south. Will have to wait and see.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

With showers exiting to the east, main challenge with the forecast are CIGS. The NAM and GFS appear to be too optimistic in clearing skies based on the latest satellite imagery. So used the RAP and little more heavily. This should eventually improve CIGS for LNK and OMA late in the day. But as the next system approaches from the west, easterly low level winds should redevelop overnight with IFR CIGS returning. Most guidance keeps precip north of OFK until around 18Z so have kept dry conditions in the forecast for now.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.