textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of snow is expected to bring at least minor travel impacts to parts of the area Friday into Friday night. The highest chances will be in far northeast Nebraska into west- central Iowa where there is a 50-60% chance of at least an inch of snow.

- Travel impacts will become more widespread Saturday as snow overspreads the area and a few places see some light icing. In addition, gusty northwest winds will lead to some blowing and drifting snow, including into Saturday evening after snow ends. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for much of the area.

- Bitter cold is set after Saturday's system, with highs mostly in the 20s and lows falling into the single digits and teens through Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 419 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Pretty quiet and seasonably cool across the region early this morning as we were under northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building in. Temperatures as of 4 AM were in the teens to lower 20s. The quiet weather will stick around during the day with temperatures topping out in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Attention then turns to our much-talked-about snow chances Friday and into the weekend. The system that will be responsible is currently sitting off the Pacific Northwest coast and should start to move onshore this evening. As the shortwave trough starts to approach the Rockies Friday, a surface low is progged to spin up over WY and sink southward into CO by Friday afternoon. Southeasterly flow and warm air/moisture advection will ramp up ahead of the surface low with a band of low to mid level frontogenesis developing across SD into northeast NE and western IA by late morning/early afternoon. There will be some dry air to overcome, so it might take a bit for precipitation to reach the ground, but eventually expect a band of snow to set up in this area in the afternoon, with accumulations largely confined to areas northeast of Norfolk to Omaha line through 6 PM. Most impacts from this band will likely be outside of our area, but places in Knox, Wayne, Thurston, and Monona counties could see around 1".

As the southeasterly flow continues and the actual shortwave starts to push in Friday night, precipitation will become more widespread with rain in the south, snow in the north, and a brief mix and potential for light icing in between. Some of the smaller scale details still need to be worked out, including how quickly we're able to saturate and what the low level temperature profiles look like. Current consensus suggests a 50-80% chance of precip northeast of the Norfolk/Omaha line by midnight and a 20-50% chance southwest. After midnight, those chances jump into the 70-90+% range area-wide. Now as for the temperature profiles and precip type, still some minor differences in surface low track and strength of low level warm air advection. Most guidance suggests the low will track roughly along the KS/OK border Saturday morning and push northeast into MO by Saturday afternoon. Even small wobbles in this track will make some pretty significant differences in precip type in southern portions of the forecast area. In addition, some guidance (e.g. 27.06Z NAM and 27.03Z RAP) suggests much stronger warm air advection around 925 and 850 mb when compared to other guidance. As a result, those models have a pretty deep isothermal layer aloft that is just above freezing, while surface temperatures remain near or below freezing in some areas. Consequently, once precipitation develops, it would likely be liquid and could lead to some light ice accumulation before the entire column cools and we switch over to snow. While there isn't much guidance that shows this (10-20% chance of occurring) , it is worth noting the potential for a light glaze of ice developing before snow falls, especially as I-80 looks to be squarely in the middle of this area.

Instead, the more likely scenario is that precipitation north of I- 80 starts and stays as snow, while we see a "clean" transition from rain to snow south of I-80 through late Saturday morning into the afternoon as much colder air moves in. In fact, that colder air could cause some of that rainfall on the roads to "flash freeze" and lead to some icing as we switch over to snow. So really, whether we see true freezing rain that freezes as it hits the ground might be moot and either way a thin layer of ice develops ahead of the snow for some. In addition, winds will pick up and become northwesterly through the day as the surface low passes by to our south and east. Expect gusts mostly in the 25-35 mph range, with a few gusts hitting 40 mph. It currently looks like the strongest winds will arrive as the heaviest snow exits, so that should help a little bit from a blowing snow/poor visibility standpoint. However, the winds will be strong enough that blowing/drifting snow will continue even after snowfall ends, which will lead to longer cleanup times. Snow should completely exit east by midnight Saturday night with winds tapering off shortly thereafter. Currently expect final snowfall totals of 4- 7+ inches near and northeast of a Norfolk to Omaha line with higher amounts as you go farther into Iowa. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for these areas. To the southwest, it'll be more in the 1-3" range, again with that potential for some light icing. Again, still some details that need to be worked out that could have large impacts on snowfall totals, including temperatures, system track, exact start time, rain to snow transition time, so make sure to monitor the forecast, especially if you have travel plans. Regardless, it looks like there will be travel impacts in much of the area Friday night through Saturday.

Once the system exits, we'll be even colder, with highs on Sunday and Monday in the teens to mid 20s and lows through Tuesday morning in the single digits to lower teens. While winds look relatively light, even a slight breeze will lead to sub- zero wind chills these mornings. Temperatures should start to creep back up into 30s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Regarding additional precip chances, there's still quite a bit of spread in guidance in exact timing and track, but it looks like another weaker system will move somewhere through the Plains late Sunday night or Monday. Some solutions have associated precipitation moving directly through the forecast area while others have it staying almost completely north or completely south. So forecast confidence on this particular system is low, with consensus giving us about a 20-30% chance of seeing any snow with it.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions start out a quiet TAF period, with winds generally out of the northwest aside from KLNK, which should follow suit soon. Winds will remain light through the overnight hours, gradually becoming southeasterly, with gusts increasing towards the latter few hours of the period. Gusts just beyond the TAF period will ramp up to 25-30 kts at their peak. Otherwise, we're tracking snow chances that could materialize at KOFK (25% chance) late Friday morning into the afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for NEZ011-012-015-017-018-032>034. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for NEZ031-043>045-052-053. IA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for IAZ043-055-056. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for IAZ069-079-080.