textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs reach the low 90s with some wildfire smoke in the skies.

- Best chance for showers and storms tonight will be in far northeast Nebraska along the South Dakota border (60-80% chance).

- More showers and storms expected Tuesday (30-60% chance) and again Wednesday (60-80%) chance. While the severe threat is low, storms could produce heavy rainfall.

- Warming trend begins Thursday into the weekend with highs reaching the low 90s by Sunday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Another H5 shortwave will round the base of the main longwave Wednesday, traversing the area. Continued mid-level forcing for ascent should lead to another round of showers and storms Wednesday (60-80%). Hires guidance shows the potential for training storms over the area, which with the continued ripe environment for efficient rainfall (PWATs of 1.9 inches, WCD of 4000m), this may lead to a heavy rainfall threat. The WPC currently has portions of southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa highlighted for a slight risk of excessive rainfall. By the end of Wednesday, storm total QPF will range from a half inch to a little over an inch primarily along the Platte River area into southwest Iowa. Cooler temperatures are expected with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Leading up to Saturday, should see the southwestern CONUS H5 ridge amplify and push farther eastward toward the Plains. This will result in generally dry conditions with a warming temperature trend. Expect highs to warm back to the low 90s by Sunday with a few areas in eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa seeing heat indices in the low 100s. Saturday could bring a slight chance (15%) for some showers and storms as an H5 shortwave ejects towards the Plains area from the Pacific Northwest.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF cycle. Gusty south southeasterly winds of 23 to 29 kts will affect terminals for much of this afternoon, subsiding late tonight by 03z. Smokey skies will persist throughout the majority of the TAF cycle too, but near surface impacts should remain little to none. A front will push through terminals early Tuesday morning, switching winds to the north northeast with some breeziness expected at KOFK. Widely scattered showers with some isolated storms may affect terminals after 06z (30-40% chance). Confidence in any impacts to terminals remains too low at this time for any mention in TAF. Some model guidance is hinting at MVFR ceilings developing behind the front but chances remain low at 30% or less. Some smoke may reach the surface behind the front after 15z.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.