textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered flurries and light snow showers this morning (15-25% chance). Snow amounts of a trace up to a few tenths of an inch. Minor to no travel impact expected.

- Another round of light wintry precipitation is possible (15-30% chance) tonight into Wednesday morning, mainly near and north of I-80. A few spots in northeast Nebraska could see slick roads with up to a half inch of snow and a glaze of ice (10% chance).

- Near-seasonal temperatures today and Wednesday warming into the 50s Thursday, and 40s and 50s Friday through Monday. These warmer temperatures could allow river ice to break up and move, increasing the risk of ice jams.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Early morning analysis showed some weak shortwave energy sliding through the SD/IA/NE border area with radar showing some associated light returns. However, not many locations were reporting precip, owing to dry near surface air, though a few spots were seeing some flurries. These should continue off and on through at least this morning, though model soundings suggest we'll continue to struggle with dry air, so expecting little to no accumulation and only perhaps some very localized dustings on roadways. Should also mention given the dry air, we may at times lose in-cloud ice allowing some freezing drizzle to mix in, but again, accumulations are expected to be fairly inconsequential. Otherwise, expect highs in the 30s area-wide.

For tonight into Wednesday, another shortwave trough is on track to slide through the area and bring additional light precipitation chances. The initial push of forcing and associated precip continues to be more over western into central NE, leaving us dry initially. However, trends are toward the trough amplifying and becoming a little more positively tilted allowing a secondary bit of energy to "fold over" into the forecast area early Wednesday morning. As a result, latest short term guidance is indicating a southwest to northeast oriented band of precip moving into northeast NE during the early morning hours and sliding south through the remainder of the morning. Still some questions on exact timing, coverage, and how far south/east any accumulation will make it, but most CAMs have this signal. As far as precip type, model soundings suggest it'll start as snow, but we quickly lose saturation aloft, eliminating in-cloud ice. This could lead to brief transition to freezing drizzle as we have some decent low level warm air advection and a 1-2 km deep layer of low level saturation. Precip should move through relatively quickly, so amounts of both snow and ice should remain low for most areas (0.1-0.2" of snow, glaze of ice). However, CAMs do show some convective snow shower potential, suggesting some localized half inch snow accumulations and slick roads aren't out of the question (10% chance in portions of northeast NE). Any precip we get should exit by early Wednesday afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid 30s to around 40.

For Thursday onward, upper level ridging over the western CONUS will gradually edge eastward leading to warmer weather. Thursday continues to look like the warmest day of the next seven with westerly downslope flow helping us to get into the 50s for nearly the entire area, and perhaps even a few readings hitting 60 as you go west of Lincoln and Norfolk. A cold front is still progged to slide through Friday, though guidance is in very good agreement that it will be a dry passage and won't impact temperatures too much. Expect highs to remain in the 40s and 50s through the weekend into early next week with long term outlooks favoring above average temperatures continuing into mid-February. Given the warmer temperatures, we'll continue to watch for river ice break up/movement and an increasing threat of ice jams. However, overnight lows below freezing most nights into early next week should help keep it somewhat gradual.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1057 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A bank of MVFR ceilings continues to approach the area from the north, with KOFK seeing restrictions shortly while they skirt KOMA to the north until 10z and KLNK until 12z. Also at 12z, IFR ceilings will arrive at KOFK, lasting until 17z while KOMA/KLNK stay MVFR. Ceilings do fall below FL020 at all three sites, but the onset of those conditions have been moved back in time, along with the exit of any MVFR conditions after 00z tomorrow evening. Winds are currently out of the east at 5 kts or less, and will become increasingly northerly over the next 6 hours and stay that way through the majority of the period.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.