textproduct: Omaha/Valley

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and a few storms expected across eastern Nebraska through this evening (15-30% chance). Some storms could produce gusty winds or small hail.

- Stretch of hot and dry weather starts Saturday into much of next week.

- Potential rain chances return toward the end of next week, but right now confidence is low. Rain chances stay below 15%.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1029 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Satellite shows an upper-level shortwave is bringing a grouping of 2-3 meso-vorticies through today, leading to our current situation with a broad cloud shield over eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Rain should stay mostly confined to southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, but CAMs do develop a few isolated showers/storms over northeast Nebraska later this afternoon into the early evening. Rain likely clears our area by 9PM. Good news is limited shear should keep severe potential low, but stronger storms could put down a few isolated gusts to 60mph, especially this afternoon into the early evening when CAPE will be highest. Temperatures today will stay fairly mild with highs in the mid 80s.

We're seeing a significant shift in the upper-level pattern going into the weekend, with high pressure and ridging building over much of the central CONUS. This will be bringing in an extended stretch of hot and humid conditions with chances of rain near zero through much of the extended forecast. We do see a trend in the latest long-range guidance to shift the ridge back westward toward the end of next week, putting us back in a pattern of northwesterly flow. This would allow shortwaves to bring rain chances back to the forecast starting Friday. However, with a lot of time between then and now, much can change. Confidence remains low in when rain chances will return to the forecast.

The biggest concern through the next week will be an extended period of hot and humid weather. While high temperatures will not seem too extreme, humidity will bring heat indices up into the low-to-mid 90s, only increasing toward the end of the week. Guidance likely does not have a good handle of how much "corn sweat" will contribute additional humidity at this time, and with bias correction toward recency and climatology, I'd assume that forecast dew points are likely too low, especially for day three (Monday) and beyond. For now, not making any significant changes to dew points (and resultant humidity) in the extended, but don't be surprised if heat indices increase as we get closer to each day next week. Still, we'll likely stay under "Heat Advisory" criteria at least through the first half of next week. With potential for added moisture advecting in from the Gulf Thursday and Friday, we could get closer to critical thresholds.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions through this evening. Widely scattered showers and storms could bring brief periods of reduced visibility, mainly from now through 03Z this evening. 30% chance of showers/storms at KOMA and KLNK through 21Z, dropping to 15-20% after 21Z, and clearing the terminals by 00Z. With low chances, didn't include showers/storms in TAFs. Clearing skies overnight tonight will lead to areas of haze or fog toward Saturday morning from 10-14Z. 70% chance of reduced vis (MVFR) at KOMA and KLNK with a 20% chance of LIFR conditions.

OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.