textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, today through early Friday morning

- Seasonably warm temperatures Friday into the weekend

- Cooler temperatures and beneficial rain Sunday into early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 (Today and tonight)

A dry cold front has begun moving south through northern Sonoma and Napa Counties late tonight and will continue to push its way south through our area throughout the overnight hours. The strongest gusts are likely to occur in the higher elevations, through the gaps and passes of the Mayacamas and Vaca mountains in Napa County and farther south through the East Bay Hills in the afternoon. Ultimately, can't rule out some isolated gusts up to 50 MPH at the highest peaks in Napa County but otherwise impacts should be limited at lower elevations.

There has been a slight shift east in deterministic guidance of the sharpening upper trough that will produce the offshore flow through Friday morning. The timing of the strongest 925MB winds is late in the day today near sunset over the Bay Area and the Santa Cruz Mountains. Probabilities for gusts greater than 40MPH are very low, below 1000ft elevation. Furthermore, as the lower boundary layer begins to decouple around sunset, chances of the stronger winds aloft mixing to the surface decrease. Overnight temperatures will be cooler than normal, as winds ease in the hours before sunrise. Clear skies will result in efficient radiational cooling with some near freezing temperatures in the Santa Lucias in southern Monterey County, mostly 40s everywhere else.

A progressive, high amplitude ridge will move onshore over the course of the day Friday with noticeably warmer temperatures and light winds, will be a very pleasant day area wide. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s inland and low to mid-60s along the coast.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)

Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday will begin to rebound closer to normal while daytime highs jump another few degrees inland for another pleasant day across our area. A pattern change sets in late Saturday night into Sunday. Most of our area should see at least some wetting rains between Sunday and Tuesday, however consensus is poor across deterministic guidance for how the first and subsequent waves eject east out of the upper trough as it approaches the coast. The official forecast attm has slight chance PoPs in the North Bay as soon as Sunday morning, however significant uncertainty exists attm.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, with the highlight being increasing offshore flow. These winds have already picked up over the North Bay earlier this morning and are being observed across much of the region. When winds pick up later this evening and into the overnight hours, the threat for low level wind shear increases over the North Bay and Bay Area terminals. The most likely terminals to see LLWS will be KAPC, KSTS, and KLVK with a bit more uncertainty for KSFO, KOAK, and KSJC. For LVK, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact wind direction around 03Z which is associated with the onset of the low level wind shear. Model guidance is showing some component of southerly flow combined with northerly wind gusts. The exact timing of the persistent southwesterly winds is uncertain and may occur earlier than 08Z. LLWS chances begin to ease for most sites between 10-13Z as winds ease overall.

Vicinity of SFO...

SFO Bridge Approach...Winds around SFO this morning are generally from the N to NE, but should return to the NW over the next couple of hours. Wind speed should increase to roughly 10-15kt, with the possibility of gusts to 25-30kt after 21Z and continue through sunset. Onshore winds should begin to ease then, with offshore winds returning between 6Z-9Z and holding through the overnight hours. Looking at soundings around KSFO, there is the possibility for LLWS. opted to adjust the TAF slightly and cap it around 30kt rather than 40kt given the uncertainty of how strong the northerly winds will be. Any threat of wind shear should ease just before or around sunrise, as winds ease. Onshore flow returns tomorrow afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals... At SNS, there is uncertainty regarding the exact timing on the return of offshore winds after 10Z. It may return in the later end of the TAF period, but model guidance is not consistent at this time. Will update as needed. Aside from that, expect VFR conditions. There will be a break from the moderate winds through the night before picking up again early morning tomorrow.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 433 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A weak cold front will sweep across the coastal waters early this morning. The passing front will bring fresh to near gale breezes to the coastal waters and bays through today. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the outer coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.


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