textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Mainly dry weather through Wednesday, with a few isolated showers being possible.

- More beneficial type rain late Wednesday through Thursday.

- Dry weather returns Friday and continues through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1044 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

No significant morning updates.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025 (Today and tonight)

Cloudy and cool to start the day around the Bay Area and Central. Today will be a transition day weather wise as one storm system exits SoCal and another storm system approaches from the northwest. Initially the region will be in a squeeze play with shortwave ridging overhead. Despite some ridging overhead, areas that are starting off cloudy have a high likelihood of remaining cloud through the afternoon. Through the afternoon the upstream storm system will inch its way closer to the coast. The associated cold front will also inch closer.

Latest forecast timing brings some pre-cold frontal showers to the North Bay just in time for the evening commute. The leading edge of precip will be warm sector scout showers. The main moisture push is still expected later tonight and early Thursday. Expect a rather wet overnight period as the fropa begins. The fropa will bring a brief period of moderate to locally heavy rain. Not expecting any rates to be high enough to cause issues on the Pickett Burn Area. Unlike the last system as the front slides S through the forecast area rainfall intensity will diminish.

LONG TERM

Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025 (Thursday through Tuesday)

Wet start to the day Thursday as the aforementioned cold front is traversing the forecast area. Biggest impacts will be to the Thursday AM commute. Minor ponding and a lower chance for nuisance urban flooding. By late Thursday afternoon precip will taper off from N to S behind the departing front. While there are some high PWATs associated with the fropa AR guidance doesn't appear to be high enough to be an AR. Overall, still looking like more beneficial rain than hazardous. Amounts are still roughly the same a tenth or two most areas and up to a half inch N Bay Mts and coastal mts. Weak instability will be present with the fropa, but current thinking is any thunder chances will be less than 15 percent so no thunder is in the forecast.

Outside of precip, the front will bring an uptick in winds, but no where near the wind conditions with the last two systems. Gusts of 30-40 mph will occur along the coast and higher terrain.

Drier conditions develop by early Friday. Dry and warm develop lasting into the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Cloud cover lifts to VFR-levels into the afternoon but mid-level clouds remain overcast through the day. Expect light to moderate winds through the afternoon and evening. Winds lighten and turn more southerly into the night wind MVFR CIGS building ahead of a weak cold front. Showers arrive in the late night along the front and spread south and east through the morning. Visibilities will be slightly affected by the rainfall. Expect light scattered showers in the wake of the front with winds turning more westerly into the mid to late morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Mid-level clouds scatter and rebuild around SFO through much of the day with southeast winds turning more southwest into the mid afternoon. These winds turn more southerly as the front arrives with light to moderate showers. Winds turn to the northwest behind the front with some lingering shower activity. CIGs erode as the last few showers exit into late Thursday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Mid-level clouds build through the day. Light winds turn more moderate and westerly in the mid afternoon and last into the evening before becoming light southeasterly. Expect light rain and MVFR CIGs into early Thursday as the front arrives. Wind turn northwesterly as the front exits, and shower activity becomes spottier.

MARINE

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1044 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Conditions improve across the marine environment today with winds diminishing and seas abating. Improvements will only be temporary with hazardous marine conditions returning late Wednesday as a weak storm system moves through the coastal waters. Rain is expected overnight Wednesday into Thursday with thunderstorms not anticipated. This system will bring a return of moderate winds with strong gusts Wednesday night through Friday before winds abate heading into the weekend. Seas build to between 10 to 15 feet Thursday remain elevated into early next week. Elevate seas will be prolonged by the arrival of two distinct rounds of long period, very high northwesterly swell.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.