textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1203 AM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through most of the forecast period

- Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Sunday

- Hazardous beach conditions at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

UPDATE

Issued at 920 AM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

Partly sunny skies across the region this morning with high clouds moving in. Isolated fog reports are coming in from southern portions of the North Bay Valleys (Novato and Petaluma) and in the vicinity of Concord. Visibilities should improve and fog coverage should diminish throughout the remainder of the morning as temperatures rise. Otherwise, expect pleasant weather with highs in the 60s across the region. The warmest portions of the Salinas Valley will reach the low 70s.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1203 AM PST Thu Jan 29 2026 (Today and tonight)

Surface high pressure across the West and a coastal trough off the Pacific Coast will continue to facilitate light offshore flow across the region. The only impact is radiational fog in the Russian River Valley. If driving in the area, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. Other than that, longwave upper-level ridging across the West will result in a warming trend through Saturday with maximum temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. Higher elevation minimum temperatures will be 10 degrees above normal with coastal and valley locations near to slightly above normal. SJC will challenge its daily maximum temperature on Saturday - the previous record is 71 degrees set in 2015. Hazardous beach conditions will unfortunately coexist with fair weather, please read the BEACHES section below for more details. Minor coastal flooding is expected to return today and persist through Sunday (during the highest tides of the day) to bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay. The forecast has taken into account 0.4 ft of storm surge. Confidence is moderate due to the uncertainty in: the development of the aforementioned low, the impact of the swell, and wind direction.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1203 AM PST Thu Jan 29 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)

The aforementioned ridge will get booted out by an upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska with the resulting pattern yielding zonal to slightly troughy flow across the region on Sunday. This will renew rain chances, but don't get too excited. The ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS show only a handful of members bringing any rain to the region during this timeframe with the official forecast keeping it all over the water. Right now, the most likely scenario looks to be a pause in the warming trend, an increase in cloud cover, and maybe some drizzle for the North Bay. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that longwave ridging will quickly rebuild Monday, likely persisting through next Friday at least. This will yield dry weather and another warming trend with conditions very similar to what is expected in the short term.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 925 AM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

Patchy and shallow fog is starting to improve over the Santa Rosa Plain as surface temperatures continue to warm. Once this occurs, expecting VFR to prevail through early Friday morning when the same area is expecting fog to return and linger through midmorning. Weak north-northeasterly flow persist this morning with a transition to onshore by this afternoon. Winds ease overnight and into early Friday morning. Winds on Friday afternoon appear to have a greater probability of remaining offshore, especially over the Bay Area Terminals.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light offshore winds this morning will become onshore by this afternoon. High confidence of VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light southerly winds this morning will become onshore by this afternoon. High confidence of VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 920 AM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes continue through Friday before winds veer and become southerly over the weekend. Rough seas are expected through early Friday morning across the coastal waters, diminishing to moderate on Friday and Saturday before rough seas return Sunday and Monday.

BEACHES

Issued at 925 AM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches through Friday morning. Long period westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Also, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued from today through Sunday for high tides up to 1.4 ft above normal (on Saturday at 9:30 AM at the San Francisco tidal gauge). This will mainly impact coastal areas adjacent to the San Fransico, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected.

Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf, and never turn your back on the ocean!

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.