textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1022 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Breezy onshore winds persist through Sunday afternoon

- Temperatures near seasonal averages through the upcoming week

- Dry offshore winds for the higher terrain Sunday night into Monday night

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1022 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026 (Tonight through Sunday)

Skies are generally clear, save for the Pacific coast of San Mateo County where some low clouds have developed overnight, and will generally remain so through the day on Sunday. There is a low confidence of stratus development near the northern end of the Santa Lucias that could impact the southern Monterey Bay region early Sunday morning, but if this develops it should mix out soon after dawn.

The weather pattern remains dominated by a cutoff low coming into Oregon, which interacts with a broad area of zonal flow and slight ridging across the Southwest to create a strong pressure gradient over the northern half of California and Nevada. At 9 PM the SFO-WMC gradient was measured at 9.7 mb, and there are still a couple of hours where the gradient could strengthen further before the cutoff low's motion starts to relax the gradient. Wind gusts across the region have peaked at around 20 to 35 mph, with the most favored locations seeing wind gusts of over 50 mph. This is expected to continue well into the night, with some abatement in the early morning hours on Sunday. By the time the sea breeze kicks in Sunday afternoon, the pressure gradients will relax, but remain rather strong and some elevated winds are still possible before the winds finally turn light in the late evening hours. Widespread gusts will likely reach 20 to 30 mph with favored locations along the coast and through gaps, passes, and valleys reaching 40 mph.

Morning lows will generally hover in the upper 40s to the 50s across the region. Sunday's highs range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s inland, the middle 80s in the warmest reaches of southern Monterey County, the middle 60s to the middle 70s near the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s close to the Pacific coast.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1022 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026 (Monday through next Saturday)

The trough axis continues moving into the northern Plains by Monday, relaxing the pressure gradients and diminishing the potential for strong winds. Some troughing influence will remain along the West Coast through at least the middle of the week and there may even be a pulse of energy coming off the back of the first trough that would reinforce the pattern, keeping temperatures near to below seasonal averages. High temperatures will range across the 80s inland, the lower 70s to the lower 80s close to the bays, and the middle 60s to the lower 70s near the Pacific coast. The widespread marine layer stratus deck should return Monday night into Tuesday, and will develop each night and morning before mixing out through the afternoon hours. Friday into the upcoming weekend, model ensembles are showing a chance for some sort of ridge influence across the region, thus reflecting the probability for a slight warming trend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2026

It's VFR except for patchy coastal stratus /MVFR/. Diurnal warming will mix out patchy stratus with VFR prevailing across the forecast area late morning through afternoon. A few patches of coastal stratus /MVFR-IFR/ redevelop tonight and Monday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Tempo BKN MVFR ceiling until 15z this morning otherwise VFR. West wind 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots from late morning to mid evening. West wind 10 knots tonight becoming light northeasterly early Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Patchy morning stratus /MVFR-IFR/ nearby KMRY and KSNS otherwise VFR today. Patchy stratus /MVFR-IFR/ redevelops tonight and Monday morning. Mainly onshore winds 5 to 10 knots except areas of gusts to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon and early evening.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 422 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Hazardous conditions for small craft prevail through the middle of the week. Northwest winds strengthen today and tonight with gale force gusts across the southern inner coastal waters and the Monterey Bay. A few gale force gusts are possible across the northern inner coastal waters. Winds will remain elevated through midweek before decreasing late week. Moderate seas will build to between 8 and 10 feet and become rough by Monday in response to the stronger winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 422 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Patchy coastal stratus has developed overnight. 925 mb relative humidities are higher over the Timber and Plaskett fires early this morning. Tonight into Monday night, a light to gentle offshore breeze (with occasionally moderate gusts) is forecast to develop in the higher terrain as the mid/upper level trough axis shifts into the northern Rockies. As such, areas above the marine layer often experience nocturnal drying that will likely continue through early this upcoming week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.