textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Rain showers continue through this afternoon

- A warming and drying trend expected for the upcoming weekend into early next week

UPDATE

Issued at 922 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Rain showers continue over the North Bay, portions of the San Francisco Bay Area, and out over the Pacific this morning. As the low pressure system begins to progress inland over the south Central Coast/southern California through the day. There is generally a 10%- 15% chance of thunderstorms across the north Central Coast, East Bay, and South Bay as Surface Based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is forecast to increase up to 500 J/kg across these regions given daytime heating. With the loss of daytime heating, rain showers will be limited to the Big Sur Coastline late tonight.

RGass

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1202 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 (Today and tonight)

Primary concern in the short term remains rainfall from the upper level low just offshore of the Central Coast into early this morning. The window for a chance of low-top supercells and the accompanying severe threat has closed with just light rain expected for spots that see any rainfall over the next 24hrs or so. The slow moving upper level system is still expected to produce anywhere from 0.10"-0.50" for most spots over the course of the day today, with coastal areas assisted by upslope flow to see the highest totals. The rainfall on the back side of the system should taper off entirely by sunset tonight and drier conditions filling in amid subsidence on the backside of the exiting wave.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1202 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)

PWATs begin to drop more considerably later in the day and evening Friday indicating further drying conditions and warmer temperatures for the weekend into the beginning of next week. However, temperatures for the weekend into the beginning of the work week will hover right around normal for this time of year, with no big warmup indicated under relatively low amplitude, progressive ridging through the middle of next week when troughing begins to develop well offshore.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Low conf today on exact timing and clouds/vis details given transient nature of showers/rain as a low pressure meanders eastward through the region today. For the general picture mostly MVFR to VFR conditions with pockets of IFR with RA and -SHRA. Gradual diminishing of precip by this evening. Post system regime will feature cooling and damp low level late tonight ad early Friday. As such, some radiation FG is poss for STS with low strato-cu at other terminals early Friday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR to MVFR with poss -SHRA through early this evening. Behind the showers low conf, but have MVFR CIGs overnight and early Friday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR to MVFR with poss -SHRA through early this evening. Behind the showers low conf, but have MVFR CIGs overnight and early Friday. Winds become more diurnal with drainage winds by early Friday for SNS.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Active weather over coastal waters and bays today with showers and thunderstorms as a storm system lingers. Expect gusty, erratic winds if a thunderstorm or stronger shower develops. Marine thunderstorm chances peak early Thursday morning with thunderstorm chances shifting over the inner waters/over land during the afternoon. Moderate northerly breezes gradually return today with strong to near gale force gusts increasing across the outer waters Thursday through Saturday. Moderate seas build, becoming rough to very rough across the outer waters Friday into Saturday before abating Sunday into next week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.