textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026

- High and dry pattern with offshore flow and cold overnight conditions

- Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches today and tomorrow and again throughout the week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 (Today and Monday)

High pressure in the Intermountain West and a coastal trough off the California Coast will be responsible for our weather for the next week. Calm, clear, and cool conditions will allow for efficient radiational cooling - this is why we have been cold the past three mornings. Everything seems to be on track with temperatures generally within two degrees of the forecast. As such, cold weather products are in effect through 9AM this morning. Patchy radiational fog will be another hazard through the morning with STS just developing it as I was typing this. Today and tomorrow will be very similar with afternoon temperatures rising to 5 degrees above normal and overnight temperatures falling to 5 degrees below normal. Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches today with an increased risk for strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and large shore break. If you go to the beach: remain out of the water, stay off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean! Bonus: high clouds streaming in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to make for mesmerizing sunrises and sunsets.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 (Tuesday through Saturday)

Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that an anomalously high amplitude upper-level longwave ridge and its axis will dominate our long term forecast. This will result in a warming trend of 10 degrees, with minimum temperatures slower to respond than maximum temperatures. No records are forecast to be in jeopardy. Unfortunately, periods of hazardous beach conditions with an increased risk for strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and large breaking waves are expected through the week, coinciding with great beach weather. If you go to the beach: remain out of the water, stay off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean! Rain is still going to have to wait for beyond the long term forecast. The 20th continues to be the earliest possible return with the ECMWF and GFS showing some form of troughing returning, but agreement is terrible not only between the deterministic solutions but also across their ensemble members.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 311 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026

Fog is being reported at STS with LIFR conditions expected to continue through the late morning hours. with moderate confidence that reduced visibilities return late tonight. High cloud cover is blocking the view of the fog bank on satellite imagery, but nearby observations suggest that the impacts are generally limited to the STS vicinity. The rest of the region is expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be generally light with offshore flow across the interior valleys and a gentle onshore wind developing in the afternoon across most of the region.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be around 5 knots at strongest, developing from the northeast this morning before backing to a northwest flow in the afternoon, then to the west tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy drainage winds at SNS continue through the morning hours, otherwise winds remain light with variable flow during the day and drainage winds developing overnight.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 311 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026

Expect mostly light winds and swell today. A longer period and larger northwesterly builds this afternoon producing a rough sea state through early Tuesday. Seas rebuild in the late work week. Winds stay mostly light to moderate through the week.

BEACHES

Issued at 112 PM PST Sat Jan 10 2026

A Beach Hazard Statement will go into effect at 4PM PST Sunday and continue through Monday evening for all Pacific Coast beaches from Sonoma to Monterey County. A longer period moderate swell will bring hazardous beach conditions with increased risk for rip currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore break. This will result in dangerous conditions along the shoreline. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue through Thursday with the issuance of additional Beach Hazard Statements likely.

Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ506-510- 513-514-518.

Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ516.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.