textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Rain showers with a slight chance for embedded thunderstorms today

- Unsettled weather returns Saturday and persists into next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 (This evening through Thursday)

Ongoing showers, with brief downpours possible at times this afternoon, will persist through the remainder of today and tonight. The well defined center of a slow moving (nearly stationary today) upper level low off the coast of the Bay Area can be seen clearly on satellite and radar. Several bands of light to moderate showers will continue to move onshore through this evening. Our entire area has seen at least some rainfall over the past 24hrs with coastal areas and the higher terrain of the coastal ranges seeing between 0.50"- 1.5" and lower lying interior locations seeing around 0.10"-0.50".

A slight chance of (sub-severe) thunderstorms continues through the remainder of the afternoon over the Central Coast with surface based CAPE values ranging between 200-400 (or a little higher in some spots), however with the vertically stacked nature of the upper low attm, there is essentially no shear to tap into the instability. Thus, rainfall will gradually taper off overnight and be mostly done by sunrise Thursday morning over land, with showers continuing offshore tracking south with the upper low during the day tomorrow. Highs Thursday will increase 3-5 degrees from today, with morning clouds clearing for most locations in the afternoon.

LONG TERM

Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Positively tilted shortwave ridging begins to set in across our area Thursday night with coastal fog and drizzle possible Friday and Saturday morning. Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal values Friday and Saturday, mainly the upper 50s to mid- 60s. A deepening offshore trough Saturday night with decreases in midlevel heights and thickness values will lead to increasing rain chances through the day on Sunday, which will begin a wet pattern that will persist through the remainder of the extended forecast.

By early Sunday morning, we'll see the influence of the deepening trough begin to impact the coast before gradually progressing inland during the day. Wind gusts up to 25-30mph early Sunday morning will increase to 35-40mph by Sunday afternoon along with increasing rain chances throughout the day, first along the coast then pushing farther inland. The exact details of the larger scale pattern lacks consensus, however the highly amplified longwave pattern and continuous troughing expected to produce numerous waves of precipitation over the next one to two weeks is supported by todays update from the Climate Prediction Center, highlighting the West Coast with above normal chances for precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

Satellite imagery this evening shows the surface low just offshore of the North Bay area, with bands of rain moving onshore. This will bring periodic reductions in cig and vis, likely to the MVFR category, perhaps lower at times while being accompanied with gusty winds up to 22kt at times. Outside of the rainbands, VFR conditions prevail. CAMs show showers lingering through the overnight hours and with conditions beginning to dry out by mid to late morning. Though a few rogue showers may linger into the early afternoon. Something to watch for Thu evening and overnight hours will be the development of fog with light winds and clear skies.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence for the SFO TAF this afternoon. Rain chances should increase over the next hour or so the next band moves onshore. Winds should remain breezy, generally around 08-15kt, with perhaps some isolated gusts to 20-22kt between now and 5Z. Winds should moderate to 10kt or less during the overnight hours. CAMs show lingering showers overnight, thus I adjusted the TAF to account for that with chances for rain decreasing Thursday morning. Dry conditions should hold for Thursday afternoon and evening. May need to monitor for fog early Fri morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions should prevail through the period, unless showers skirt by which could then drop cigs and vis down to MVFR conditions. Dry conditions are expected by Thursday morning, with winds taking an onshore component by the afternoon.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 518 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

Moderate winds will prevail tonight, with moderate to rough seas are forecast. While westerly to northwesterly swell will dominate, south to southwesterly swell will persist mainly for inner and outer waters south of the Monterey Peninsula. Moderate to rough seas are forecast this weekend, with a potential for 12 to 15 second period swell. This will equate to hazardous boating and near-shore conditions.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through late Friday night for CAZ006-505-509-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.