textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Temperatures will be close to or below normal into the beginning of next week

- Warm and dry conditions above 1000ft persist into the weekend

LONG TERM

Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)

The extended forecast looks similar, as we remain caught in the quasi-zonal to weak troughing while high pressure holds to the east. Temperatures should cool a few degrees on Sunday and then moderate into early next week. Models and ensembles show ridging trying to build slightly to the west, which would lead to warming for mid to late next week. Some caveats to what might happen will be the Pacific. The Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows three potential disturbances well south of Baja. Could influence how the high behaves.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Currently have a mix of IFR to VFR ceilings due to patchy stratus across our region. VFR conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon into the early evening hours. HAF is an exception as they may have a couple hours of VFR scattered cloud decks in the early afternoon before shifting back to IFR ceilings. Moderate to fresh onshore breezes around 10 to 15 kt expected through the day and ease overnight. The marine layer returns this evening impacting coastal sites first before filling in over inland terminals. Low to medium confidence on the exact stratus arrival as it is dependent on where the upper level low sets up during the day. Currently, all TAF sites are expected to develop IFR to MVFR ceilings, with coastal sites having a high chance of dropping to LIFR in the overnight hours.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus is beginning to mix out of the SF Bay as moderate onshore breezes increase. VFR through the afternoon with occasional gusts around 20-25 kt possible. Winds remain around 10 kt overnight. Medium confidence on the timing of IFR ceilings as they may arrive as early as sunset. The marine stratus is expected to linger until late Saturday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Ceilings that develop may not be as low as SFO and clear before SFO does. Otherwise, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus is receding to the coastline resulting in VFR conditions through the afternoon. Onshore winds will be diurnally driven this TAF period. The marine layer holds on strong as it returns with IFR ceilings this evening around 6-7 PM PDT. Medium confidence that ceilings will drop to LIFR overnight (OVC003-004), but there is still uncertainty regarding the exact timing and duration of LIFR conditions. If LIFR ceilings develop, they are likely to impact visibility and linger at the terminals through mid Saturday morning.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Widespread moderate to fresh northwest breezes prevail through the weekend with slight to moderate seas. Locally strong breezes with occasional near gale force gusts are expected in the coastal jet regions of Point Sur and Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts are expected this afternoon for the bay waters and immediate coastal waters.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.