textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026

- Overnight and morning stratus will persist as the marine layer deepens through the weekend

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with a chance of drizzle and/or light rain, mainly along the coast, into early next week

- Warm and dry conditions return the middle of next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 143 AM PDT Sat May 2 2026 (Today and tonight)

The upcoming pattern for the weekend and early week will shift over to chillier temperatures and there is a potential for periods of light drizzle and/or rain. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect this morning through Sunday evening for long period northwesterly swell, an increasing risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

It's a good idea to pay extra attention to our neighboring NWS office's forecasts too since e.g. the pattern may affect travel near and across high mountain passes.

Today and tonight: A 500 mb closed low near the Pacific Northwest will move southward and gradually strengthen. The low is forecast to be located 400 miles west of San Francisco tonight. Out ahead of the low, plenty of clouds will accompany steady cooling through the lower levels today. High temps along the immediate coastline ended up slightly below early May normal highs Friday. The longer clouds linger today the the more difficult it'll be e.g. to warm past the mid to upper 50s today along the immediate coastline. Farther inland it'll be easier to reach the 60s and 70s including possibly a few lower 80s well inland in the afternoon. Low clouds move back inland tonight with temperatures lowering to the 50s and 40s. Spotty light drizzle is possible today and/or tonight, best probability is along the immediate coastline.

LONG TERM

Issued at 143 AM PDT Sat May 2 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

The 500 mb low is then forecast to move eastward later Sunday and become located over the Central Coast and San Joaquin Valley Monday and Monday night, then forecast to move across southern California Tuesday. A fair amount of dynamic cooling will accompany the 500 mb low for early May as will relatively higher precipitable water (pw) in situ along the west coast; it's residual pw leftover from a recent northward extension far north of Hawaii earlier in the week. The GFS shows up to 0.90" of pw (90th percentile for early May) reaching the Bay Area Monday night and early Tuesday. It's during this time when some model forecasts lean wet and some lean dry. The wet solutions show wetting rain (at least 0.10" or greater) over much of the Bay Area, while drier solutions are closer to a trace to maybe a few hundredths of an inch. It's a low confidence forecast, please stay tuned to the latest updates.

During mid to late week the 500 mb low will have moved eastward away from California. Behind the low, high pressure ridging is forecast to move in. There still may be a weak trough passing across far northern California late next week. Otherwise a dry and warming trend returns.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026

Widespread stratus is reported across the region with a mix of MVFR- IFR CIGs. Ceilings will lower throughout the night with predominantly IFR CIGs expected. Clearing is likely to occur by late morning/early afternoon before another early return of stratus Saturday evening. Gusty winds return during the afternoon/evening before winds reduce again tomorrow night.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs are expected to persist through the overnight hours before clearing by the early afternoon. Breezy onshore winds return during the afternoon/evening with gusts peaking around 25 knots. Stratus returns early tomorrow evening with MVFR CIGs to prevail tomorrow night.

SFO Bridge Approach....Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to IFR CIGs expected overnight with clearing by late morning/early afternoon. Breezy onshore winds return during the afternoon/evening before dissipating overnight. An early return of stratus is likely again tomorrow night with MVFR CIGs expected.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1041 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026

Fresh to strong northwesterly breeze continues into Saturday before winds diminish. Winds will become moderate to fresh late Saturday into Sunday. Moderate, wind driven seas will build to 8 to 10 feet across the northern outer waters through Saturday afternoon. Seas subside late Saturday into Sunday as winds continue to diminish next week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM PDT this morning through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.