textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Steady or slightly warmer temperatures and more humid through early next week

- The marine layer prevails through the weekend

UPDATE

Issued at 920 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026

No changes to the forecast this morning. Early morning stratus can be seen rapidly retreating on satellite toward the immediate coastline with sunny skies for the remainder of the day across the interior. Stratus may linger along the immediate coast into the afternoon with some locations possible not clearing entirely.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1220 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 (Today and tonight)

Onshore winds continue with coastal stratus and patchy mist/fog moving inland this morning. Strong high pressure remains located over the interior west and an upper level trough remains located over the eastern Pacific. High clouds may arrive here today from monsoonal moisture located over the Southwest. Daytime highs today will vary from the mid to upper 60s along the coast to the 70s bayside to the 80s and 90s well inland. Tonight lows will cool to the 50s except in the 60s in the hills and mountains.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1220 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

Mid and high clouds will increase early next week as higher precipitable water (pw) arrives with the eventual northward moving remnants of Elida. Elida is currently a tropical storm ~ 1100 miles south of Point Conception, but the storm is forecast to weaken far before reaching higher latitudes. At this time most model forecasts are forecasting minimal convective potential early next week. Daytime highs are forecast to be near to slightly above normal next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Improving flight categories are forecast at all terminals with VFR anticipated at most terminals (except KHAF) in the next 1-2 hours. There is high confidence in this transpiring. MVFR to IFR is anticipated to return this evening and into the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Confidence in the onset time is medium. Confidence in MVFR at SJC and LVK is relatively lower, compared to other terminals, but model consensus does favor at least a few hours of MVFR. There are chances for LIFR ceilings/visibility at SNS and APC, however, the depth of the marine layer may be sufficient to mitigate this threat. Trends will be monitored as the potential is non-zero. VFR will return late morning/early Sunday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR currently with MVFR returning this evening due to a marine layer push. East to variable winds at the start of the TAF period are anticipated to become more WNW'ly by 20Z today. Gusts as great as 25 knots are advertised with medium to high confidence. Confidence in the onset of MVFR cigs around 03Z Sunday is medium and there could be impacts to the evening push. Some model guidance advertises IFR ceilings, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. VFR is anticipated to return mid-morning Sunday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR this afternoon with MVFR/IFR ceilings returning quickly, near or just after 00Z Sunday. There is some potential for IFR visibility, however, the threat seems too low to include in the TAF at this time. There's a chance that VFR may return before the end of the current TAF period (17Z Sunday), but for now will opt for simplicity given the range in the TAF.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will prevail over the weekend, diminishing to become moderate by next week. Moderate seas will also prevail. Moderate southerly swell will increase from tropical cyclone activity across the eastern Pacific through next week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.