textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday

- Rain returns to the region Friday into the early part of next week

- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

- Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions this weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 (This evening through Thursday night)

The warmest day of the week is still on track for this afternoon with a slight cool down on Thursday as the mid/upper level trough deepens off of the West Coast. The deepening of the trough will push the high pressure, which resulted in several days of above normal temperatures, eastward across the Desert Southwest. Thus, temperatures cool some 3-8 deg F on Thursday compared to this afternoon's maximum temperatures. In the next 24-36 hours, a cut-off low within the larger broad troughing off of the West Coast will develop at move toward Southern California and Baja California. Thus, the Bay Area and north Central Coast will see little if any impacts from this southward tracking low. Prefrontal rain is forecast to return to return in the coastal ranges late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday)

The first cold front is forecast to move into the North Bay by mid- to-late Friday morning and then push southward across the Bay Area and Central Coast in the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the boundary and become out of the southwest just ahead of the cold front. Overall, wind speeds have trended downward with the latest set of guidance and as still forecast to be strongest across the Pacific. There remains generally a 10%-15% chance of thunderstorms across the North Bay and Bay Area on Friday associated with the destabilization of the atmosphere. Rain totals from this system are expected to be around 0.5-1.25" for the North Bay (highest in the coastal ranges), 0.5-1.00" for the San Francisco Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big Sur coast, and 0.10-0.40" for the inland portions of Monterey and San Benito Counties as well as the typical rain shadowed valleys.

On Saturday, mostly dry conditions are forecast over the region aside from some post frontal rain showers into Friday night into Saturday morning. However, temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs only reaching into the 60s across most low-lying areas and upper 50s in the higher elevations (upper 40s in the peaks). Rainfall from this system is forecast to be mostly beneficial. However, roadways will be slick and minor nuisance flooding in the typical poorly drained areas. While the wind speeds have trended lower, keep up with the latest forecast information as things have the potential to change.

Another cold front is on tap to impact the region Sunday into Monday with another one in the middle of the upcoming week. None of these systems are forecast to stall over any one given region, reducing the threat of widespread flooding concerns. Be sure to check back for the latest forecast information as we head into an unsettled weather pattern.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the evening and early overnight models. Models try to hint at the return of fog and stratus tonight, favoring KSTS and perhaps the coast East Bay terminals. Any fog or stratus that does develop should erode by mid morning, leading to another VFR day.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate confidence in the forecast as models struggle to determine if reduced vis and cig return. Opted to keep the mention of MVFR cigs but that could be too bullish. Think the timing for it is reasonable, with VFR conditions returning by mid to late morning. Southerly winds gradually increase throughout the day, potentially getting to 10-15kt for the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The forecast is on repeat tonight. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Winds will remain offshore tonight, then will shift onshore after sunrise and will shift back to offshore after sunset.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 900 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Wave heights continue to build to above 10 ft by this evening. Further deterioration is expected Thursday into Friday ahead of a cold frontal passage on Friday. Moderate rain and strong SW winds with gale force gusts are expected Friday into Saturday as the front moves through. By Saturday, incoming NW swell from a distant hurricane force low will result in high seas with significant wave heights between 25 to 30 feet. Wave heights decrease slightly Sunday before another round of high seas takes place Monday. Small crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these conditions.

BEACHES

Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker waves through Friday, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 30 feet. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

RGass

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.