textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 341 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Cooler today with very light rain returning to the North Bay and Pacific Coast later today, tonight and Monday morning

- Above normal temperatures with elevated winds and offshore flow mid to late week

- Potentially hazardous marine conditions late week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1248 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026 (This evening through Monday)

Afternoon surface analysis shows the weak/dissipating front from early this morning has now shifted eastward (east of the CWA). As such we're actually see a break in the "action". KMUX has been temporarily switched to clear air mode for the moment. Additionally, the gloomy start to the day has now turned into a mix of sun and clouds with low stratus bumping the coastline.

So where is the anticipated precip? We'll have to wait for the upstream surface trough and associated low pressure. These two features currently off the NorCal coast are still on track to move inland later tonight and Monday. Latest forecast for tonight through Monday has not deviated a lot from the previous ones. Light precip/drizzle will initially return to the N Bay early tonight before spreading south and east through Monday morning. As the precip band/area moves S and E it will become more diffuse and higher conf for drizzle than rain. Kept a slight chance for thunderstorms in the forecast as well (10-20%), but mainly north of Pt Reyes. Lingering precip chances will quickly fade everywhere by mid-morning Monday. Rainfall amounts have backed off slightly with totals being a 0.01" San Francisco/Peninsula and up to 0.10" N Bay Coastal Mts. Areas S and E a trace to no precip.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1248 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

The longwave pattern from Monday into Tuesday is shortwave a ridge with building H5. Skies will clear and temperatures will warm. The shortwave ridge quickly gets squished by a robust shortwave trough digging through OR then NorCal and then NV. Very inside slider vibes. As such, pressure gradients ramp up leading to gusty northerly flow across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Winds are initially NW Wed/Thur before shifting N to NE behind shortwave on Friday in a semi-offshore posture. while windy Wed- Fri not widespread or strong enough to warrant Wind headlines at this time. Given the developing N to NE flow for the second half of the week temperatures are going to warm to well above normal with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

Updated several sites as conditions have improved dramatically with VFR conditions in SF Bay and MRY. A few CU will occasionally drift over SFO and possibly OAK.

A weak system spinning off the NorCal coast and ample onshore flow led to a mixed bag early this morning with IFR to VFR conditions across the terminal sites. Have seen gradual improvement over the last hour or two and expect this trend as low stratus breaks up and low to mid cigs begin to scatter. The back edge of SCT is becoming more apparent over the coastal waters and expect that to move inland this afternoon. Therefore, mostly VFR this afternoon. Tonight, a transition IFR with DZ or -SHRA BR and lower cigs most terminal. Best chc for precip will be coastal sites and N Bay.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR to MVFR through 19-20Z then VFR. IFR redevelop tonight with -DZ lingering into the AM rush. Tail end of the AM rush transitioning back to VFR

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Ample high clouds will limit clearing potential in the AM and into afternoon. Keeping MVFR to IFR through the period.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 819 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

A weak storm system passing through Northern California will bring a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms late tonight into Monday morning. High chances for precipitation will be north of the Golden Gate. Seas continue to weaken until mid- week. However by late week, high pressure strengthening over the eastern Pacific will likely result in northwest winds to gale force and steepening seas over 12 feet.|

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.