textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 226 PM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Coastal flooding at high tide by Bayshore and Pacific Coast locations through the week. Worst flooding along bayshore Marin County.

- Seasonally cool conditions this week

- Light rain possible Friday into the weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 226 PM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night)

Seasonal to seasonally cool temperatures continue through the upcoming week as upper level troughing lingers over the West Coast. Overnight temperatures will also be on the cooler side with morning lows dropping into the 40s to upper 30s across the region. In the Short Term, expect more classic fall weather to continue with gustier onshore winds in the afternoon/evening. Stronger winds peak between 25 to 30 mph along the coast and across mountain gaps/passes (Altamont Pass, Salinas Valley, San Bruno Gap - to name a few). Winds ease overnight but expect another round of gusty onshore winds during the afternoon/evening on Tuesday.

The main hazard Monday/Tuesday continues to be the threat for coastal flooding along the San Francisco/San Pablo Bay shorelines and along the Pacific Coast. This coastal flood event is brought to you by a combination of the full moon (10/26) and thermal expansion due to warmer ocean temperatures on top of our typical tidal pattern. High tides peak today and tomorrow with up to 2.1 ft of inundation above ground level expected. The strongest impacts will be felt along low-lying portions of bayshore Marin County where numerous flooding reports have already been received. If you live in a low-lying area prone to flooding along the bay or Pacific Coast, make sure to have all flood preparations in place before high tide tomorrow (12:15 PM). If you encounter a flooded road, turn around don't drown. You don't know how deep flood waters are, how fast a current may be, or if the road is structurally sound beneath the water. Coastal flooding is set to peak on Tuesday with tidal heights dropping throughout the long term (for more in depth discussion see the Long Term forecast).

LONG TERM

Issued at 226 PM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)

Troughing generally persists through the upcoming week with a deeper upper level low arriving Friday into the weekend. Seasonal to seasonally cool temperatures continue through the extended forecast but expect temperatures to drop another couple of degrees Friday into the weekend. Diurnally gusty winds continue for favored locations this week with stronger gusts during the afternoon/evening along the coast and across mountain gaps/passes. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper 60s across the interior while coastal areas linger in the upper 50s to low 60s. Friday we see the promised further cooldown with interior lows dropping into the low 60s and most coastal areas lingering in the mid to upper 50s. Cooler temperatures remain in place through the end of the weekend. Expect overnight cloud cover to return by midweek with cloudy skies becoming more predominant Thursday into the weekend as the deeper trough arrives. Light rain remains possible Friday into the weekend but, fortunately, the bulk of the rain has shifted southwards towards Southern California. That's not to say we will be completely dry this weekend. Expect drizzly conditions across the Bay Area Saturday into Sunday with light rain possible overnight heading into Sunday. Light rain is expected across the Central Coast but totals should be fairly light across urban areas (around a tenth of an inch). For the higher elevations of the Santa Lucia Range and the Gabilan Range, light rain amounting to a couple tenths of an inch is possible. All together, the classic fall weather should lend itself a ghostly ambiance for anyone partaking in any haunted/spooktacular activities this weekend.

Coastal flooding concerns continue across Bayshore locations within the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays and the Pacific coastal regions through at least Thursday. While tidal heights peak Tuesday, heights will remain elevated through late week. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.9 ft above normal (7.7 ft MLLW) at 12:56 PM Wednesday 10/28, 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 01:43 PM Thursday 10/29, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 2:39 PM on Friday 10/30, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 3:44 PM on Saturday 10/31, including around 1.0 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino. Currently, tidal heights continue to run above the forecast with the forecast heights for Monday/Tuesday being increased. If this trend continues into mid to late week we may see coastal flooding concerns extended Friday into the weekend (necessitating the extension of the product). Expect the worst flooding to continue in low-lying bayshore locations of Marin County.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

2.7 mb ACV-SFO and 1.9 mb SFO-SAC pressure gradients support northwesterly winds and dry /VFR/ conditions. Cool air advection is occurring from the surface up through 850 mb (~ 5,000 feet); 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures were in the 25th percentile for late October on the evening Oakland upper air sounding. In contrast to this, sea surface temperatures in the 60s are much above October normals by 5.5F to almost 9F. Monterey bay buoy sea surface temp 67F to 68F today is the warmest this late in the season for the period of record (NDBC data for Monterey buoy 1987-2023).

Back to the 00z Oakland sounding, there is a weak temperature inversion based at 5000 feet with a fair amount of vertical mixing from the surface to this altitude that'll carry over tonight over the coastal waters. Current surface weather observations are mainly VFR. At the air/sea interface heat flow and water vapor are upward directed, with upslope winds and radiative cooling expect at least patchy low clouds /MVFR/ tonight and Tuesday morning. Over land where surface winds become light and there is no marine influence and temperatures cool, a few patches of valley fog /IFR-LIFR/ may develop. Otherwise it'll be VFR tonight through Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 12 knots tonight and Tuesday morning. West wind increasing to 15 to 25 knots Tuesday afternoon to mid evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with a few areas low clouds /MVFR/ nearby tonight and Tuesday morning. West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to light and variable winds tonight and Tuesday morning. West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 304 PM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Moderate to fresh north to northwesterly will prevail through the majority of the week. Strong gusts will continue to develop this afternoon across the southern coastal waters near Point Sur and Monterey Bay. These strong gusts gradually spread across the northern coastal waters near Point Reyes by tomorrow. Isolated near gale force gusts are likely within the coastal jet regions of Point Sur and Point Reyes. In response, moderate seas briefly build to rough around 8 to 10 ft across the outer waters Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Moderate wind driven seas prevail Thursday into the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-505- 506-508-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.