textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the marine layer through the next week

- Warm and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Today and tonight)

Another day of the weather pattern dominated by the balance between the ridge over the Desert Southwest and the troughing over the Eastern Pacific. Today, a cutoff low moving across the Pacific Northwest is allowing the ridging to have a little more impact over central California, resulting in a compressed marine layer and a slight uptick in temperatures across the interior. Some coastal stratus development is still possible through the overnight hours, and any stratus that does form will dissipate rather early in the post-sunrise hours. High temperatures today range in the middle 80s to the middle 90s across the interior, the upper 90s into the triple digits in the warmest interior spots (especially southern Monterey County), the 70s and lower 80s near the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Breezy onshore winds are expected in the afternoon and evening along the coast and through favored gaps and passes.

Regarding conditions near the Timber Fire, the compressed marine layer will lead to warm and dry conditions in the higher elevations where the fire continues to actively burn. Light northeast winds in the morning will shift to a southwest flow in the afternoon and evening hours. Smoke transport will be inhibited by the marine layer inversion into the morning, resulting in the potential for reduced visibilities in the immediate area, while winds aloft will transport smoke northeastward towards Salinas and Hollister. For air quality information, refer to products issued by the Monterey Bay Air Resources District.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 (Monday through Saturday)

The pattern remains relatively stable through the rest of the forecast period. A developing low in the eastern Pacific will allow more of the troughing influence to arrive on Monday, causing temperatures to dip by around 3-6 degrees in the inland valleys (around the lower 80s to the lower 90s), before temperatures rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the ridging reasserting itself, and remain remarkably close to today's forecast through the end of the 7- day outlook. The breezy afternoon and evening winds will continue to develop for coastal areas and through favored gaps and passes.

Ensemble models and our colleagues at the National Hurricane Center continue to suggest the possibility for a couple of tropical systems to develop off the coast of Mexico through the next week. One such system could very well develop today. It's too early to say what the impacts of the system could be to the region, ranging from impacts to the large-scale pattern to the potential for tropical moisture flow towards our region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 927 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR continues except for patchy coastal stratus and fog /IFR/ along San Mateo County. Mid and high clouds, including wildfire smoke over the north Central Coast, are moving northeastward over the forecast area. Northerly to northeasterly winds develop over the North Bay tonight and Sunday morning. Coastal stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR along the coast later in the morning otherwise VFR Sunday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR prevails until stratus /IFR/ develops 12z Sunday. VFR returns 18z Sunday. West wind 8 to 15 knots tonight and Sunday morning. West wind increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday afternoon to mid Sunday evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR until stratus /IFR-LIFR/ redevelops late tonight and Sunday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR-VFR late Sunday morning and afternoon. Patchy stratus /IFR/ possible Sunday evening. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 901 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Fresh to strong northwesterlies persist into Sunday morning as moderate seas prevail through the weekend. Marine conditions remain hazardous for small craft until Sunday night. Northern outer waters maintain elevated winds into Monday. Expect minor impacts to visibility along the Big Sur coastline due to smoke from the Timber Fire getting trapped south of Point Sur.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.