textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 116 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions today

- Widespread rainfall returns tonight into Tuesday

- Warming and drying trend kicks off Wednesday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 116 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026 (Today and tonight)

Surface high pressure will dominate most of today's weather with above normal temperatures and dry conditions prevailing. The only caveat to the dry conditions would be if an isolated rain shower skirts the North Bay. Nonetheless, no adverse impacts are expected from these rain showers.

LONG TERM

Issued at 116 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

A developing gale force low pressure system off the Northern California Coast will pull in moisture from the tropics as it heads toward the Washington/Canada border. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean IVT forecast peaks in excess of 500 kg/ms Tuesday morning, quickly decreasing as the moisture plume sinks south, with PWAT values forecast to break the daily maximum record. Even with rich moisture content, poor dynamics are expected to yield generally beneficial rainfall, especially south of the Golden Gate Bridge. Light to moderate rainfall is expected with low probabilities (10%) of exceeding 0.50"/hour which even then is exclusive to the North Bay. Ponding and slick roadways can still be expected. Any flooding will likely be more of a product of infrastructure (clogged storm drains, etc.) rather than the rain itself. No mainstem river flooding is expected. The pattern and the location of the low leads to high confidence that the North Bay will receive the highest rainfall totals as they will be under the influence of pre-frontal rain showers before the cold front progresses through. As such, minor flooding in low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas will be possible and if rain rates get high enough, shallow landslides will be possible. The source region of the moisture (off to our southwest) will result in the highest rainfall totals in southwest facing terrain with the help of orographic lift. Lee side valleys will get rain shadowed. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that surface high pressure in Baja California will quickly rebuild after Wednesday morning's cold frontal passage. A warming and drying trend will result, with temperatures climbing to 10 degrees above normal by Friday. Uncertainty arises this weekend in the evolution of the troughing over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The official forecast advertises a slight cooling trend with the passing of a system to the north of us.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 324 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026

Generally VFR throughout the region with some MVFR-IFR ceilings within the North Bay and the immediate coast, as isolated to scattered showers pass by. An onshore push of wind will develop this afternoon and evening, although wind speeds remain light to gentle. Overnight, some MVFR-IFR ceilings could develop at the North Bay and the immediate coast as widespread rainfall approaches the region. Timing for the rainfall is in question as some high resolution models are showing a later approach than the current TAFs reflect.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR with mid- to high level clouds through the day. Winds remain generally light through the day, before a gentle southerly push begins late in the evening. At OAK, moderate confidence for some stronger south winds on Tuesday morning. Rain and the possibility of MVFR ceilings arrives tonight, with low to moderate confidence on the timing of the rainfall.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR expected through the day with light drainage flow turning to the northwest this afternoon and evening. High resolution models show some passing showers and potential MVFR ceilings passing through right at the end of the 24-hour TAF period, but confidence is low in timing and impacts.

MARINE

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 324 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026

Southerly winds and seas are diminishing across the coastal waters today except across the far northwestern waters. Rain chances continue across the northern waters then spread farther south Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds and seas increase tonight into Tuesday then ease by Wednesday. Dry weather prevails late this week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.