textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1129 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through early midweek

- Gradual warming starting midweek, with Moderate HeatRisk for interior locations through the weekend

- Elevated fire weather threat across the interior North and East Bay, Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week

- Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the end of the week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night)

Water vapor imagery continues to show a relatively deep trough of low pressure situated along the West Coast, with an embedded shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest at this afternoon. Meanwhile, the dry slot remains situated over the Central California, with sunny skies prevailing this afternoon except along portions of the immediate coast, where the marine layer remains. As a result, most locations are running similar to or slightly warmer than this time yesterday. Temperatures today will depend on location, but expect seasonally warm conditions inland, and a litter cooler than seasonal along the coast. Onshore winds are also starting to increase this afternoon, with breezy conditions continuing through the evening hours, which should help moderate temperatures a bit as well. Expect another pleasant evening and cool overnight conditions prevailing. Between the predominately clear skies, decreasing winds, and dry air in place, we should see another night of good radiational cooling. Most locations will be in the 50s to lower 60s, with the coldest spots dipping into the upper 40s despite the time of year. Conversely, the thermal belted regions will struggle to cool once again, with temperatures remaining in the mid 60s to around 70.

Expect the marine layer to make a pretty widespread return tonight to the inland valleys, another that next disturbance pushes inland across the West Coast later tonight and during the day on Wednesday. Therefore, expect another very pleasant day across the region on Wednesday, with temperatures similar to if not slightly warmer than today, especially across the inland areas. Palmer

LONG TERM

Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 (Thursday through next Monday)

High pressure will then start to expand from the Desert Southwest into the region on Thursday, and continue to build for Friday and into the weekend. As a result, even drier and warmer conditions will prevail, especially across on inland areas. In fact, confidence is high that the inland areas will be down right hot, with the hottest locations potentially ranging between 100 and 110. 850 mb temperatures support this, as they appear to warm into the mid to upper 20 deg C range, peaking on Saturday. The confidence for the coastal areas though are moderate at best and less clearly defined. Temperatures along the coast will still largely be dependent on the marine layer, which should be considerably squashed, and the wind regime. While winds over all appear to remain relatively light through the period, some weak onshore flow looks like it will continue to persist along the coast, giving coastals areas some reprieve from the hottest temperatures.

The ensembles remain divergent for Sunday through early next week, as to whether the heat will linger longer or finally start to retreat. At this point in time, like the idea of the NBM, which kind of splits the difference, with inland areas remaining quite warm, just not as hot as the weekend, while coastal areas are more seasonal. Palmer

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR is imminent for the Bay Area terminals with KHAF potentially bouncing back and forth through the TAF period at MVFR/IFR. A local circulation will maintain MVFR/IFR ceilings at KMRY through at least 19z with clearing expected by 20z. The relatively unorganized marine layer continues to be a challenge to predict extent and timing. North Bay terminals if they see stratus ceilings it may not be until around sunrise Wednesday.

Vicinity of SFO...As mentioned above, stratus clearing is imminent with VFR persisting through at least sunset. Hi-res guidance suggests the potential for stratus spilling over and through the San Bruno gap to KSFO as early as sunset with more confidence in development after midnight, with earlier clearing time as warmer temperatures begin to mix down by Wednesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite trends indicate a local circulation maintaining MVFR/IFR ceilings as late as 20z at KMRY with KSNS at VFR and will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. IFR/LIFR ceilings are possible late in the TAF period.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1042 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Northwest breezes will continue to be fresh to strong through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Coastal jet regions along the Big Sur and Point Reyes will likely see gale force gusts with moderate seas becoming rough through the middle of the week as northwest winds increase. Tropical activity will continue to produce long period swell along our coastal waters into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The elevated fire weather threat will continue across portions of the area through at least this weekend. Overnight RH recovery will remain moderate to poor at locations at or above 2,000 feet with values between 35 to 50 percent, with some favored locations struggling to even reach 30 percent. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Afternoon RH will remain critically dry with values between 20 and 40 percent, with far southern portions of the interior Central Coast potentially seeing min RH near 10 percent. Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile across the interior Central Coast. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.

BEACHES

Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Long period southerly to southwesterly swell of 16-18 seconds will continue to impact our coastline over the next several days, bringing hazardous beach conditions to the Central Coast and the San Francisco Bay Area. Sneaker waves and strong rips currents will be the primary conditions, with breaking waves up to 12 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach. This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through Saturday afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.