textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 136 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026

- Light rain returns tonight across the North Bay and portions of the Bay Area. Up to 0.5" of rain across the North Bay and up to 0.1" across portions of the Bay Area

- Warm, dry weather and weak offshore flow return by Wednesday afternoon and continue through late week

- Beach Hazards Statement for increased risk of sneaker waves and riptides Wednesday night through Friday Morning

SHORT TERM

Issued at 136 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 (This evening through Wednesday)

An approaching shortwave upper level trough and weak surface cold front will reach the Bay Area late this evening. This will bring a return of light rain to the North Bay and portions of the East Bay and San Francisco/San Mateo Peninsula. As of 12PM this afternoon, KMUX has been transitioned back into precipitation mode with the first echoes showing up over the outer coastal waters. Folks across the North Bay will start to see some light rain/drizzle this evening. Light rain will take longer to extend into the rest of the Bay Area with the East Bay and San Francisco/San Mateo Peninsula not seeing any rain until the overnight hours. Precipitation totals increased slightly with this afternoon's forecast package compared to the overnight package. The highest totals are in the North Bay coastal mountains where up to 0.50" of rain are possible. Across the rest of the North Bay rainfall totals will be between 0.15-0.25" and up to 0.10" are possible across the East Bay and San Francisco/San Mateo Peninsula. The HRRR is in agreement with slightly higher precipitation totals from this cold frontal passage and shows a few showers developing farther south over the Monterey Peninsula. This is mostly worth noting since the NBM does not show showers extending that far south. If an isolated shower or two does develop along the Central Coast, accumulations will be minimal with a trace up to a few hundredths of an inch possible. Winds across the higher elevations will increase slightly as cold frontal passage occurs with gusts peaking around 25 mph. Rain showers clear out by 10/11AM on Wednesday with skies gradually clearing through Wednesday afternoon. Morning temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the low to mid 40s, while afternoon temperatures warm into the 60s.

LONG TERM

Issued at 136 PM PST Tue Jan 27 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

Upper level ridging and dry conditions return by late Wednesday and continue through remainder of the week. The rest of the week will follow a similar trend as last week with chilly mornings and warm afternoons. Most locations will stay in the 60s during the day but the warmest interior locations (e.g. Salinas Valley and interior Central Coast) will reach the low to mid 70s. Long range guidance is showing the potential for an upper level trough to reach the West Coast late weekend into early next week. This will both cool temperatures down and bring a slight potential for rain back to the forecast. Ensemble guidance does show about half of the models indicating a few tenths of an inch of rain while the other half show no rain at all. Rain is most likely across the North Bay with chances decreasing the farther south you go. At this moment it remains possible we will see at least some rain towards the end of the long term forecast but confidence is mixed. Looking way out into the future - ensemble guidance is trying to produce some precipitation throughout the first part of February but no clear consensus currently exists.

With the upcoming week shaping up to be warm and sunny, beachgoers should exercise caution. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 9PM Wednesday to 9AM Friday. There will be an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents along the entire Pacific Coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County. For more details see the Beaches Section below.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1006 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026

Mostly VFR conditions across the region at this hour. As a weak frontal boundary approaches the region look for conditions to deteriorate around mid afternoon across the North Bay and then late this evening and overnight across the Bay Area terminals. At this time, mostly MVFR conditions are expected over this region with fog returning early Wednesday morning at STS and LVK. Looking less likely MRY and SNS will receive anything more than VCSH and brief MVFR conditions this evening and into early Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are expected by Wednesday afternoon in wake of the frontal passage.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions will prevail through around 03Z Wednesday when conditions become more likely to reduce to MVFR as rain showers move across the region. A greater probability will be in the 06-09Z Wednesday timeframe for MVFR (temporary IFR if and when RA is present) as the main rain band is forecast to move across the terminals. MVFR will persist through about 18Z Wednesday before improving to VFR as skies clear in wake of the passing frontal boundary.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Mostly VFR through the TAF period. Drainage winds (southeasterly) once again at SNS will become onshore by this afternoon. A weakening frontal boundary will approach late this evening increasing the probability for MVFR conditions. However, confidence is only moderate at this time. There is greater probability for VFR conditions by 18Z Wednesday.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 850 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026

Light to moderate southerly flow will prevail over most of the waters as a weak cold front approaches from the west today through early Wednesday morning. This will bring light rain to the northern coastal waters through Wednesday morning. Winds will be moderate to breezy north of Point Reyes with locally hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds diminish on Wednesday and switch to northerly that night. Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday, but build rough to very rough Wednesday night.

BEACHES

Issued at 359 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026

Long period swells with low wave heights begin to arrive on Wednesday, but wave heights begin to increase that night while periods stay long leading to hazardous conditions. A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued from 09 PM Wednesday through 09 AM Friday. Significant wave heights look to range from 14 to 19 feet. The main threat will be from sneaker waves and rip currents. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.