textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Seasonally warm, dry conditions through midweek; unsettled weather returns late week into next week

- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

- Hazardous beach conditions continue through tonight and return late week into the weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1158 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026 (Tonight through Wednesday)

A very weak and dry 500 mb trough in the flow will pass to our east overnight. Slightly higher surface pressures will continue to build in over the coastal waters to far northern California into Tuesday morning. In the wake of the trough, 500 mb ridging will return Tuesday. 24 hours ago the surface pressure gradient was more susceptible to light land breezes i.e. cool air drainage winds mixing with higher dew point air (water vapor) resulting in fog to dense fog development. The potential is there for low clouds and fog through Tuesday morning, but if e.g. the SFO-SAC pressure gradient can hold onto a weak onshore direction this may help limit the areal coverage of fog and dense fog Tuesday morning. That is, sea surface warmth with a light onshore wind may help slow or reduce fog and dense fog coverage, except for inland valleys farthest removed from maritime influence. Otherwise a clear sky to daybreak Tuesday morning will allow radiative cooling. Will of course monitor satellite and observations and issue a dense fog advisory if needed.

Dry weather continues Tuesday through Veterans Day. Daytime highs Tuesday and Wednesday will continue slightly above normal with highs in the upper 60s at the coastline to the 70s and lower 80s inland. Night-time lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1158 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

Strong polar jet stream winds crossing the Pacific will move a 500 mb low toward southern California and northern Mexico Thursday through Friday. There's increasing confidence that a cold front with at least light to moderate rain will arrive in our forecast area Friday. Recent model forecasts show southerly to southwesterly winds increasing out ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Wet weather may impact the morning commute in the Bay Area, but right now chances look more favorable that the bulk of the rain (and wind) will arrive in the late morning through afternoon, something to keep in mind for the afternoon and possibly the evening commute. Rain totals at this time: 1" North Bay to 1/3" to 1/2" elsewhere across the rest of the forecast area.

A few showers linger Saturday. Another cold frontal passage Sunday brings another chance of rain. Cold upper level troughing with the potential for additional rain is forecast for late weekend and early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 403 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026

Much less aviation impacts this morning as a result of weak offshore flow. Still seeing transient LIFR for the N Bay Valleys, but elsewhere currently VFR. There is a small area of CIGs/FG developing near HWD. Some guidance spreads this S to SJC and NW for OAK/SFO. Conf is pretty low on this occuring. TAF forecast has trended to be more optimistic. Currently have a tempo for dense fog at OAK, but may need to remove that soon if CIGs aren't spreading NW. VFR this afternoon. Guidance suggests another fog/cig event again tonight, but given guidance performance this AM less inclined to fully go with it. Low conf forecast for this AM.

Vicinity of SFO...Trended forecast to VFR today. Will bring in some to IFR late tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with drainage flow. Onshore this afternoon.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 403 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail over the coastal waters through Tuesday night. Winds become more southerly midweek as a storm system approaches. Winds increase fresh to near gale by Friday as a storm system begins to move through. The increasing winds will produce steep fresh swell. A moderate sea state will prevail through midweek week. The sea state will deteriorate late Friday and continue over the weekend thanks to building northwest swell with a longer period. Mariners with plans late in the week should monitor the forecast the next few days as dangerous conditions are expected next weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 415 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026

Beach Hazards:

No official Beach Hazard in effect. However, latest buoy reports still show a dynamic marine environment. Moderate periods will still make for an energetic surf zone today. Expect another round of Beach Hazard Statements midweek as longer period swells return. Looking farther down the road dangerous beach conditions will develop Friday and over the weekend as large swells arrive bringing potentially the biggest waves of the season.

When visiting the beach, continue to practice beach safety. Remember, waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Flynn/MM/KR

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST today for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...None.