textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday evening and again Thursday through Saturday

- Light to moderate rain across North Bay tonight through Tuesday; light rain across rest of Bay Area

- Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek; warming trend and above normal temps late week into weekend

- Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1251 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Today and Tonight )

Rain returns to the Bay Area and some of the Central Coast. A low pressure currently off the NorCal coast will bring rain back to the region early Tuesday morning and lingering into Tuesday night. Rain is currently being detect over the coastal waters and is expected to enter the N Bay close to sunrise and the Bay Area after sunrise impacting the AM commute. The best forcing and moisture will be over the N Bay with chance for moderate rain. The farther south you go rain becomes more light with interior Central Coast receiving no rain. Rain totals remain the same: highest across the coastal N Bay Mts 0.5-0.75". The rest of the North Bay and the Santa Cruz Mountains will see 0.25-0.5" while the remainder of the Bay Area sees less than a tenth of an inch.

The real wildcard in all of this today will be the chance for thunderstorms. As the low pressure moves into the N Bay coastal waters this afternoon it will usher in some cold air aloft. This will help to destabilize the atmosphere - higher CAPE/ML CAPE and favorable lapse rates for thunderstorm development. Shear parameters on the latest guidance are still on track to promote the potential for rotating cells/waterspouts. The obvious concern would be any waterspouts moving inland. Thankfully, once the low moves inland the overall convective environment fades pretty quick.

Showers will last into the first part of tonight for most of the CWA with the exception of the interior Central Coast.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1159 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Wednesday through next Monday)

Chamber of commerce type of weather returns for the long term forecast. High pressure build in behind the departing rain-maker from Tuesday. A warming and drying trend kicks off on Wednesday and counties well into the weekend. Temperatures will initially be seasonably cool on Wednesday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s, but by Saturday highs soar into the 70s and lower 80s or 10-15 degrees above normal. Relatively clear skies will lead to cool overnight lows during the long term, but nothing too cold.

Taking a peek beyond the long term period looks interesting. A lot can happen between now and then, but early indications show the storm door may open and remain open well into the middle of November. CPC keep the 6-10 and 8-14 day above normal temps and above normal rain. Atmospheric River guidance also shows a much more active EPac with the potential for ARs to impact the region. Be sure to follow for future updates.

Based on the latest tidal information and predicted surge another round of Coastal Flood Advisories may be need Wednesday through Monday. Initially with minor flooding then more moderate over the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rain showers will continue across the Bay Area and portions of the Central Coast through late tonight. Temporary reductions in ceiling height and visibilities are likely as stronger showers roll through. For now shower chances are likely through 00-06Z before gradually tapering off overnight. Expect winds to be more southerly during the day today and gradually becoming more N to NW again by tomorrow morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Expect showers and temporary reductions in visibility and ceiling heights through late this evening. Kept CIGs on the VFR-MVFR border but may see temporary dips lower than in the TAF. Generally expecting CIGs to rise/fully become VFR by late this evening as shower chances decrease at SFO. Moderate S to SW winds continue this morning and will gradually shift more E to NE overnight before returning to our typical NW flow tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered rain showers are expected to move into Monterey Bay this afternoon, leaving behind lower cloud heights to linger into the early morning hours. Temporary reductions in visibility and ceiling heights are likely at MRY and SNS if a stronger system is able to develop and move onshore. Conditions are likely to remain MVFR overnight at MRY and SNS.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1000 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

Moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain with a low chance for thunderstorms are possible this morning and this afternoon, especially north of Pigeon Point. Winds will veer to become northerly Wednesday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through the weekend. Drier conditions expected Wednesday into early next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Tuesday as long period (15-19 second) northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may linger into Wednesday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach Hazards Statement.

Sarment

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.