textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 106 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Extended period of above normal temperatures sets in tomorrow

- Widespread Minor HeatRisk tomorrow through Saturday, with increasing areas of Moderate HeatRisk Sunday into the beginning of next week

UPDATE

Issued at 831 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Generally clear conditions across the region with some scattered high clouds observed via satellite. The forecast remains on track for the short term, with no changes to the forecast at this time. A little bit of weather nerditry for the upcoming warmup: the average high temperature for downtown San Francisco for March 16 is 62 degrees, with the record high of 85 having been set in 1914. The current forecast puts next Monday's high at downtown San Francisco at 84 degrees, 22 degrees above the seasonal average. If this forecast plays out it would be the first time downtown San Francisco has seen conditions this hot since October of last year.

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SHORT TERM

Issued at 106 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026 (This evening through Wednesday)

One more pleasant day expected before the warm-up begins! Afternoon temperatures will peak in the 60s near the coast and lower 70s across the interior under mostly sunny skies. Tonight, expecting less in the way of cloud cover with low temperatures Wednesday morning cooling into the upper 30s to low 40s in the North Bay and colder locations across the interior Central Coast. Otherwise, low 40s to upper 40s are expected elsewhere.

Tomorrow will be the beginning of a warming trend as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures will reach 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages under mostly sunny sky conditions.

LONG TERM

Issued at 106 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

The ridge aloft will continue to strengthen through the weekend and into early next week. By Monday and Tuesday of next week, temperatures in the warmest interior spots have a 50%-90% probability of exceeding 90 degrees F. This is when 850mb temperatures approach 20 degrees C. These temperatures would be 15- 25 degrees above seasonal averages if they were to materialize. On Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday we have Moderate HeatRisk across the interior and even some coastal spots such as the Santa Cruz region. These days, monthly records for the month of March have the potential to be met or broken. This is also when the CPC's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook shows greater than 90% probability of above normal temperatures across the entire Bay Area and Central Coast. However, we are not anticipating any strong offshore winds with this event as the center of the high pressure builds right overhead. It goes without say that rain is not anticipated through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 407 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Gentle to moderate northwest winds continue through the evening hours with some gusty winds possible at HAF, SFO, and OAK. Winds become light and variable overnight, with moderate onshore flow resuming Wednesday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period with breezy winds persisting into the late evening hours, gusting to 25 knots. Winds become light overnight before breezy onshore flow returns Wednesday afternoon into the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Moderate northwest winds persist into the evening, becoming light overnight. At MRY, gentle winds will veer from the northeast to the northwest over the course of Wednesday morning, while during the same period, breezy northwest winds will develop at SNS.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 831 PM PDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Gale force gusts across the outer waters will gradually dissipate into Wednesday morning, but rough seas and fresh to strong northerly breezes will persist into the next weekend. Winds and seas will ease into the early part of next week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.