textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1143 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

- Warming and drying trend Monday through Thursday with widespread moderate to areas of major HeatRisk

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1259 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026 (Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery shows an area of stratus redeveloping along the San Mateo County coastline and some stratus development over the East Bay. Coastal water temps remain a few degrees Fahrenheit above normal, however recent northwest winds have either held sea surface temps steady or slightly edged readings 1F lower in the last 24 hours. Radiative cooling through daybreak, cooler surface to near surface air arriving from the northwest and the eventual strengthening of a lower level temperature inversion should help with at least patchy to areas of stratus and fog development.

After morning coastal stratus and fog mix out, daytime highs will warm to the 70s coastside and to the 80s and lower 90s inland.

Reminder: A Beach Hazards Statement continues from the coastal North Bay to the Big Sur coast through Monday evening.

Also, minor coastal flooding is likely within a small window of time of about 1 hour nearest high tide Labor Day (Tuesday and Wednesday as well) for bayshore locations of Marin County. Impacts will include minor flooding of the lowest lying areas directly along the shoreline. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 0.5 ft above normal (up to 1.0 ft above MHHW) at 9:00 PM 9/7. At this time we are messaging it here and will include messaging in social media vs issuing a coastal flood advisory for Monday.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1259 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

Dry weather remains in the forecast. Will have to closely monitor remnant mid to high level tropical clouds that may arrive here during the week. Higher to much higher precipitable water (pw) may arrive here during the week, with 1.40" pw reaching the Bay Area according to the latest GFS model. This week's forecast of hot temperatures is dependent on strengthening of 500 mb high pressure (and compressional warming) as the current models show, however some of this strength may be in response to what happens to eventual post tropical remnants entraining into the upper low over the east Pacific. There are also hints of cool air advection returning on northwest winds late in the week. For now it's a low confidence forecast as to timing, location (and duration) as to how hot it may get here (closest to the coastline mainly) during mid- week. Will monitor model output closely for now before decision making on heat advisories. Stay tuned to the latest updates.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions continue tonight with HAF currently the only terminal with MVFR ceilings. Some ceilings are beginning to develop over the East Bay and may fill in over OAK in the next few hours. North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals are expected develop MVFR-IFR ceilings after midnight with increased confidence for STS to develop LIFR ceilings. The weak offshore flow is expected to begin after midnight and persist into late Monday morning which will help scatter out any stratus or fog by mid-morning. Medium confidence on stratus/fog arrival times. Gentle winds persist overnight with the direction influenced by local terrain. Moderate onshore breezes settle in by Monday afternoon into the evening.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus is beginning to develop along the coast, though VFR is advertised through the TAF period. Low to medium confidence on whether SFO will develop MVFR ceilings as the weak offshore flow may result in a patchy marine layer. Gentle southwest winds become south at OAK and easterly at SFO early Monday morning and gradually increase to moderate onshore breezes through the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with light southerly breezes at MRY meanwhile SNS remains northwest for a few more hours before shifting southerly. IFR ceilings develop at MRY shortly after midnight which is then followed by SNS early Monday morning. Stratus is expected to scatter out in the post-sunrise and become VFR through Monday afternoon. Gentle northwest breezes increase as stratus clears from the terminals.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Northerly winds gradually strengthen today from moderate to fresh with strong gusts becoming more widespread. Locally stronger gusts are expected within the Monterey Bay, coastal jet regions, and within the Golden Gate channel. Winds diminish everywhere except the far northern outer waters by late Monday with weaker winds to prevail through the rest of the week. Long period southerly swell associated with tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific will continue to impact the coastal waters into next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 1213 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day. Moderate to long period swell will increase the chance for sneaker waves, since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.