textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Slightly warmer and dry weather through the midweek

- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday

- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

- Unsettled weather returns by late week and into the upcoming weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026 (This evening through Monday night)

High pressure remains the dominate weather pattern aloft leading to our warming trend, despite a weakening frontal boundary to our north. As such, temperatures will remain 5-10 deg F above early- November climatological norms. Meanwhile, high clouds continue to stream in from the west. Tonight and into Monday morning, there is the potential for low clouds and/or fog in the Bay Area, much of the Santa Clara Valley, East Bay Valleys, and North Bay Valleys. Similar to today, any fog that does develop will likely dissipate between 9 AM - 10 AM and give way to mostly sunny conditions by the afternoon. Temperatures Monday afternoon will be within a few degrees of those today.

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)

High pressure will continue to strengthen over the Bay Area and Central Coast on Tuesday and into Wednesday. This will result in temperatures across the interior Central Coast to be some 10-15 deg F above normal with the northern portions of our region remaining 5- 10 deg F above. The high pressure is forecast to shift eastward into the Desert Southwest on Thursday as the trough off of the West Coast deepens.

Rain chances have largely been pushed back to Friday and Saturday with both deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing a cut-off low pressure system developing and pushing inland over Southern California or Baja California from Friday through Sunday. However, there is still chances for rain during this timeframe as the main trough axis shifts inland across the Pacific Northwest and Northern California Saturday through Monday. Be sure to check back for the latest forecast information as we near late week and into the weekend. Exact details on the system's trajectory and expected rainfall

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 339 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Currently VFR with stratus off the coast and high clouds streaming in from the west. Moderate confidence on a persistence forecast for tonight. Ceilings will return for most with bayshore and coastal terminals likely on the IFR/MVFR cusp with LIFR conditions more likely for interior terminals. Diurnal winds will prevail.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with northerly flow and haze. Winds will continue to back through the afternoon to become westerly/northwesterly. Low to moderate confidence on a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/MVFR developing at the terminal tonight, likely between 11Z and 18Z. Diurnal winds will prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...Moderate confidence on clouds below FL070 developing as soon as 06Z with conditions improving by 16Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence in a persistence forecast. Ceilings on the cusp of IFR/MVFR will make a run for the terminals tonight, but the limiting factor will likely be drainage flow as it will bring in drier air and keep stratus out over the Monterey Bay. Diurnal winds will prevail.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 339 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Moderate to fresh breezes combined with a dynamic sea state continue to produce rough to very rough seas, with hazardous conditions for small craft across both our coastal and outer waters through Monday. Elevated mixed long period swell will continue through the week, increasing further by the end of the forecast period.

BEACHES

Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Final day of the weekend and beach weather will be rather nice. However, the surf zone won't be nice. In case you missed it, a Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show the surf zone remains energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As such, large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at favored break point. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave activity early next week, but longer range forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast late next week.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.