textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

SHORT TERM

Issued at 109 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (Today and tonight)

As a very weak front exits the area to the southeast, surface observations are showing winds becoming more northwesterly (except for a few localized terrain differences). With increased mid and upper level moisture, mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected through daybreak. This cloud deck and light winds around 5 mph should help suppress radiational fog development. However, patchy fog is still possible through daybreak this morning in the more traditional spots that are more sheltered from the wind. At the time, no advisory is expected, but will be monitored through the morning.

As zonal flow aloft sets up today, conditions should be fairly quiet. Temperatures are once again expected to climb into the 60s with coastal areas remaining in the low 60s (or even upper 50s). With increasing moisture aloft ahead of the next system, cloud cover will remain keeping low chances for any fog development overnight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will drop down to the low 50s along the coast and mid 40s for inland areas (with a chance of localized low 40s for far interior locations).

An upper level is expected to move from the north Central Pacific toward southern California today, inducing surface cyclogenesis out over the ocean this afternoon. Models are showing fairly good agreement that that surface low is expected to move toward Point Conception before taking a left turn tomorrow morning and head toward the Bay Area. It is this low that is expected to bring the widespread soaking rain to the area. While the rain shadow will be in effect, models continue to trend wetter with this low allowing most of the area to get something though there is still some uncertainty on exact amounts as this system starts to come into the range of high res guidance. But with decent forcing, a strong low level jet in the afternoon and orographic lift, the coastal areas will likely sees the highest rain totals. Rain rates could be up to 0.25" per hour in many of the stronger cells, with localized rates up to 0.50" per hour closer to the center of the low. Lastly, while instability is not overly strong, isolated thunder cannot be completely ruled out in the late afternoon and into Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM

Issued at 109 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

There is still some disagreement in model guidance on the exact trend for the low, but most guidance as the low stalling out over the ocean just west of the Golden Gate and weakening Tuesday night through Wednesday. Rain will be come more scattered at times overnight into Wednesday with breaks developing. That being said, it looks Wednesday could be another wet day. With models still disagreeing with the track and trend for the low, there is lower confidence in the exact end time and could vary north to south across the forecast area, as well as coastal vs. inland. But there is a non-zero chance that light rain lingers through Thursday morning, but impacts should be minimal. Lastly, cooler air is expected to advect in behind the low. Temperatures will finally return back to seasonal normals with highs in the 50s (maybe touch low 60s?) and lows in the 40s.

Weak ridging Thursday into Friday morning should offer a brief respite from the rain. However, Models are still suggesting another upper level trough will move over the Bay Area and the Central Coast. This trough is a much larger wave from a spatial extent, which opens the door for smaller embedded waves to move over the area setting up a pattern that trends towards rain being a common theme for the extended forecast. At this distance, it is hard to have confidence on the timing of not just the rain, but any breaks in the rain, but it looks wet from Saturday onward. Additionally, this system moving in overnight Friday into Saturday is projected to have a colder airmass associated with it. Freezing levels will lower opening the door for some snow potentially at higher elevations. But even sheltered valley locations are expected to have morning low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s by early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

Low ceilings will continue overnight as a weak front passes through the area. Showers and patchy drizzle associated with the front have largely ended. MVFR, with local IFR conditions near the coast, are expected overnight into Monday morning. Winds will turn northerly overnight into Monday, bringing drier air into the area. This should erode stratus earlier than previous days, with gradual improvement from north to south and most sites returning to VFR by 14-18Z. Light northerly flow should prevent the return of stratus through Monday evening, although a switch to southerly winds along the coast Tuesday morning could bring stratus back into coastal areas. Winds light N-NW or variable through Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...Mainly MVFR conditions overnight, but periods of IFR late this evening as stratus continues to move inland. Conditions improving Monday morning, with clearing to VFR anticpated 14-18Z. Light N-NE winds may keep stratus banked along the terrain to the southwest before it clears. VFR should prevail through Monday night. Winds light NW overnight, becoming N on Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO, except clearing may occur an hour or two earlier as N-NE winds push stratus to the southwest and bank up along the terrain.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Mainly MVFR conditions overnight, except IFR late this evening at OAK. Brief reductions to IFR overnight at SJC/OAK are possible with low cloud layers lingering around SF Bay. Conditions improve early Monday morning (around 13-17Z). Fog potential is lower tonight than previous nights. Winds light variable to N-NW.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Confidence has increased that IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist over MRY/SNS overnight. Conditions gradually improve Monday morning, clearing to VFR by 16-18Z. May see a return of stratus late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Winds light NW to variable.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 940 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

A cold front will continue to move southeastward over the coastal waters and bays overnight through early Monday. Northwest winds will strengthen to a fresh to strong breeze today into Monday. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday. Rain chances return next weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.