textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 112 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Hazardous beach conditions with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents continue through the extended forecast

- Minor HeatRisk through the end of the week with below normal temperatures expected this weekend

- Temperatures warm and Moderate HeatRisk concerns return by midweek across the interior

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 (Today and tonight)

Stratus is filling back in once again early this morning as a marine layer around 2500 feet deep resides over the area. Additionally, satellite reveals scattered mid to high clouds developing over the North Bay as an upper trough approaching the coast taps into weak elevated instability. This will bring a very low (generally less than a 5% chance) threat of showers and thunderstorms, primarily to northern Napa and Sonoma counties. While thunderstorms are unlikely, the trough will aid drizzle development along the coast this morning. Despite light amounts, any drizzle could make roadways slick.

The trough, deep marine layer, and onshore winds will continue the cooling trend today. Highs near the coast will range from the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, with highs inland reaching the 70s to low 80s. These values are near to slightly below normal along the coast, but 5-15 degrees below normal inland. Clouds should recede this afternoon, but may hang on along the coast as moderate to strong onshore flow interacts with terrain. Winds this afternoon and evening will be breezy, especially through gaps/passes in terrain and near Monterey and San Francisco Bays where gusts 20-30 mph are possible. Tonight, expect stratus to redevelop within the marine layer with areas of drizzle along the coast.

The long-period southerly swell will continue to bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through late Saturday night. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean!

LONG TERM

Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 (Saturday through Thursday)

Temperatures will remain below normal on Saturday as a trough lingers along the coast. Coastal drizzle is also possible within the marine layer Saturday morning. By Sunday, the trough will start to weaken and the marine layer should begin to compress. This will begin a warming trend, especially inland, where highs will reach the mid 70s to upper 80s, and even a few readings around 90 degrees in the warmest locations. The warming trend will continue early next week as a ridge builds across the western U.S. Confidence is high in hotter inland temperatures, with highs in the 80s and 90s becoming common Tuesday through Thursday and an increased concern for Moderate HeatRisk. Near the coast, confidence in the temperature forecast is low to moderate, but some warming is expected. More significant warming would likely be tied to a weaker onshore or even offshore wind pattern, which is low confidence at this time. The warming trend is definitely worth keeping an eye on and is a reminder that, despite our currently below normal temperatures, impacts from heat will become more likely next week.

Finally, by Wednesday and Thursday, a minority of ensemble guidance indicates a plume of elevated instability rotating around the upper level ridge (centered over the Desert Southwest) and across the Central Coast and Bay Area. While confidence in this pattern is very low (currently around a 10% chance of occurrence), it bears monitoring as thunderstorms would be possible in this scenario.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Breezy winds easing this evening though still persistent through the night into the day on Friday. Low clouds continue to fill much of the area terminals. MVFR will remain in place through tonight into the morning hours with slow clearing expected 16-20Z for areas closer to the coast. Confidence in marine layer depth and inland spread is moderate to high and should be similar to what was observed earlier this morning, potentially slightly deeper.

Vicinity of SFO...Breezy southwest winds subsiding after 08Z. The marine layer will begin to move back inland, with MVFR cigs around 1500-1700ft likely reaching the terminal by around 07-08Z with moderate confidence on timing and cig heights. Conditions will improve again after sunrise, with cigs forecast to erode by 16-18Z Fri.

SFO Bridge Approach...Lingering clouds over the bay may continue to reduce visibility overnight. Otherwise, conditions should be similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Low clouds near 1500ft will move into OAK over the next couple of hours with lower confidence in cigs near 2000ft reaching SJC in the 11-15z time frame. Typical diurnal winds expected on Friday.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Marine stratus will continue to fill in over the region with cigs near 1000-1500ft overnight into Friday. morning. Moderate confidence in clearing time on Friday near 19-20Z Fri.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 849 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Fresh to strong winds have been gradually weakening and will continue into the night. Fresh to strong winds will return Friday afternoon and early evening leading to hazardous conditions for small crafts in the San Pablo Bay, San Francisco Bay, Suisun Bay and Monterey Bay. Expect slight to moderate chop along with the increasing afternoon winds each day. Southwesterly swell with light to moderate seas will continue into the weekend, with moderate west to southwest winds across the outer waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Sunday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through late Saturday night. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.