textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1201 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Breezy onshore winds this afternoon through Sunday afternoon

- Temperatures near seasonal averages through this upcoming week

- Dry, offshore winds are forecast for the higher terrain Sunday night into Monday night

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1201 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)

As mostly sunny skies have returned to the region, we are expected temperatures to warm into the 60s to lower 70s along the northwest facing coastal locations and low to upper 70s around the Santa Cruz region, bayshore, and coastal adjacent valleys. Meanwhile, interior valleys are forecast to reach into the upper 70s to mid 80s with the warmest interior valleys of the Central Coast reaching into the low 90s. Onshore wind gusts are forecast to reach between 25 to 35 mph in the favored gaps, passes, and coastal/higher elevation regions gusts up to 45 mph. This is ahead of a dry frontal boundary which is expected to move through the North Bay late this evening and then across the Central Coast Sunday morning. Moderate to high confidence that low clouds will not spread inland overnight into Sunday morning (patchy at best), similar to this morning. However, the marine layer looks to hover between 1,500 and 2,000 feet through the night. By Sunday afternoon, the front is forecast to be south of the region with cooler temperatures in the higher elevations while slightly cooler for the lower elevations. Onshore winds will increase once again tomorrow afternoon and evening with gusts potentially exceeding those forecast for today, but only by 5 to 10 mph. Aloft, a light to gentle offshore breeze (with occasionally moderate gusts) is forecast to develop in the higher terrain as the mid/upper level trough axis shifts into the northern Rockies. These winds are not forecast to be overly strong, which will help limit fire weather concerns.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1201 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026 (Monday through next Friday)

The trough axis is forecast to move into northern Plains early next week, diminishing the offshore wind potential. Lingering troughiness along the West Coast will maintain cooler than average temperatures for much of the week ahead. As such, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s to lower 70s along the northwest facing coastal locations and low to upper 70s around the Santa Cruz region, bayshore, and coastal adjacent valleys. Meanwhile, interior valleys are forecast to reach into the upper 70s to mid 80s with the warmest interior valleys of the Central Coast reaching into the low 90s. Overnight and morning low clouds are expected to reach inland before mixing out by the afternoon hours as well through the extended forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 415 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions across the region through the evening, and high confidence that VFR persists through the TAF period away from the immediate coast, where patchy IFR-MVFR ceilings are possible in the early morning hours Sunday. Strong and gusty onshore winds will persist into the evening hours, with moderate winds overnight into the morning before winds tick up again Sunday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... High confidence that VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Strong west to northwest winds gusting to 35 kt will continue through the evening, with a slight decrease in wind speeds early Sunday morning before the strong gusts resume Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the evening, low to moderate confidence in patchy MVFR stratus in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning. Moderate and gusty northwest winds will continue through the evening hours, turning gentle overnight before strong gusts resume on Sunday afternoon at the immediate coast.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 415 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Hazardous conditions for small craft prevail through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds gradually increase today with widespread strong winds developing by early Sunday. Widespread near gale force gusts are likely Sunday into early Monday with gale force gusts are expected along the inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas, the Monterey Bay, and in portions of the San Francisco and San Pablo Bays where terrain promotes wind funneling. Winds remain elevated through midweek before decreasing mid to late week. Moderate seas will build to between 8 to 10 feet and becoming rough by Monday in response to the stronger winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The marine layer was around 1,500 feet in depth per 12Z OAK Upper Air Sounding. However, stratus coverage did not match the typical depth this morning and is not likely to again tonight despite the marine layer forecast to be between 1,500-2,000 feet. A dry frontal boundary is forecast to move across the Central Coast tonight and into Sunday morning. Ahead of this boundary, we are expecting an increase in 925 mb relative humidities which would lead to higher humidity over the Timber and Plaskett fires overnight and into Sunday morning. Sunday night into Monday night, a light to gentle offshore breeze (with occasionally moderate gusts) is forecast to develop in the higher terrain as the mid/upper level trough axis shifts into the northern Rockies. As such, areas above the marine layer often experience nocturnal drying that will likely continue through early this upcoming week.

RGass

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.