textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1145 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Relatively weak cold front pushes south through our area today

- Breezy to gusty onshore winds this afternoon and tonight

- Notable cool down for the weekend into the beginning of next week remains on track

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1145 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026 (Today and tonight)

The effects of a progressive, short wave upper trough beginning to transect our area to the north overnight are already being felt over the North Bay with drier air mixing closer to the surface and likely to hold off a deeper marine layer push into some of the North Bay valleys for the remainder of the overnight into early Wednesday morning. Where the marine layer does make inroads tonight, we'll see clearing a little sooner than what we saw on Tuesday. While clearing is expected along the coast, the strengthening onshore flow will maintain influence across coastal areas, so dropped highs a few degrees from NBM for most of the immediate coast line, and may need to be lowered further based on trends later this morning. Otherwise temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer inland than Tuesday, except for the North Bay where the temps will jump into the 80s to low 90s.

As the upper trough shifts east later this afternoon, gradient forcing becomes better aligned for strengthening northwest onshore flow area wide, with gusty winds developing this afternoon into the evening hours, especially for higher elevations and channeled valleys. There's some uncertainty in just how far the marine layer will progress inland tonight into early Thursday morning. A drier airmass in the wake of the cold front and easing winds after midnight may somewhat limit the marine layer's inland progress despite the marine layer slightly strengthening just offshore.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1140 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)

Not much change in the extended forecast with only subtle variations in daytime highs Thursday and Friday, especially inland. We begin feeling the influence of the deepening trough along the Pacific Coastline later in the day on Friday. H85 temps peak in the low 20s(C) Thursday and Friday and are down to around 14C-16C for the weekend into next week, which will result in surface temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal for the weekend into the beginning of next week. There is a signal for some potential unimpactful light rain later Monday into Tuesday, there is poor consensus in deterministic guidance evolves the timing and position of the trough. However, ensemble guidance provides high confidence in the overall synoptic troughing persisting beyond the current extended forecast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High clouds are making stratus harder to discern on satellite but the general trend of stratus persisting along the coast and SF Bay continues. Low confidence that stratus will reach STS and APC. Confidence is higher that stratus will filter into the SF Bay and impact OAK but guidance continues to maintain a "donut hole" around SFO, keeping it VFR through the night. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected at MRY and SNS with stratus already present at both sites. Visibilities are expected to drop but should stay between 2-4SM. The HRRR continues to call for fog along the SF Bay shoreline and Monterey Peninsula but this is a much more aggressive solution than those undertaken by the MOS and LAMP. Given the higher marine layer, not expecting widespread fog tonight but we may see some patchy fog along the coast. Gusty onshore winds are expected tomorrow with widespread gusts between 20-30 knots expected. SFO may see gusts in excess of 30 knots during the afternoon/evening.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Guidance shows a "donut hole" over SFO with stratus on all sides of the airport but not over it. There is some potential for clouds to fill in overnight with LAMP guidance shows a low chance (< 30%) of MVFR conditions from 10-13Z. Confidence remains low in this scenario. Gusty onshore winds are expected during the afternoon/evening. Gusts look to peak around 30 knots with gusts potentially up to 35 knots in the late afternoon/evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Overcast conditions with MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected across the Bay tonight while VFR conditions prevail at SFO. CIGs clear by late morning with gusty winds expected during the day.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR to LIFR overnight. IFR CIGs gradually lower and become LIFR overnight with visibility dropping to 2-3SM. Not currently expecting fog given the deeper marine layer but there is a low potential for fog to develop in the early morning hours. CIGs clear mid to late morning before MVFR-IFR CIGs return during the evening. Gusty onshore winds are expected during the afternoon/evening with gusts between 20 to 25 knots possible.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1002 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Hazardous conditions for small crafts continue through this weekend. Northwest winds continue to increase overnight with widespread strong winds across the coastal waters by early Wednesday. Gale force gusts are expected by Wednesday afternoon across coastal jet regions and portions of the outer waters. Seas build with wave heights between 10 to 14 feet expected late week. Moderate seas prevail through Wednesday before becoming rough Thursday into the weekend. Winds decrease and seas ease heading into the next work week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9 AM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0- 10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.