textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions continuing, especially along the immediate coast

- Hazardous marine conditions expected through this weekend

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts

- Blustery winds for all beaches into the weekend and hazardous beach conditions for west facing beaches this afternoon through Monday morning

SHORT TERM

Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Today and tonight)

Water vapor imagery continues to show a trough of low pressure over the West, with a disturbance digging across Northern California early this morning. The fog imagery shows the leading edge of the high clouds associated with this disturbance making it into North Bay at this time, while other areas are still clear. These high clouds will be relatively shorted lived though, as this disturbance quickly dives into the Great Basin by this afternoon. That said, this disturbance will help reinforce the already moderate onshore pressures gradients across the region, with the upper level support at 925 mbs increasing to 55 kts as well, especially over the coastal waters. Therefore, given that we are continuing to see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, with an isolated gust up to 50 mph along the immediate coast and the coastal waters at this time, believe that it was prudent to issue a Wind Advisory for the immediate coast from 11 am today through 5 am on Sunday, all except Santa Cruz which is slightly more sheltered. Given the strong onshore gradient, expect high temperatures today to be similar to those of yesterday for the coastal areas, while inland areas will be several degrees cooler than those of yesterday. Palmer

LONG TERM

Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

Another disturbance will then rotate through the trough and dive into the Great Basin on Sunday, keeping moderate to strong pressure gradients going across the region. They will shift though, turning more northerly or northeasterly. The upper level support also weakens ever so slightly. Therefore, do not think a wind advisory will be needed on Sunday, but cannot rule it out completely, especially for the North and East Bay hills and mountains.

This broad trough will remain over the Intermountain West through the first part of the work week, with high pressure trying to reestablish itself off the West Coast. This will keep Northern and Central California situated between the two through at least Tuesday, with dry northerly flow aloft. At this point in time, it looks like the ridge may start to win out, with a warming trend possible, especially for our inland areas. Coastal areas though will likely fall back into our typical May gray pattern with nighttime and early morning low clouds and fog.

By the end of the work week though, the ensembles are hinting at another cut off low forming off of the California Coast. This will likely help reinforce the marine layer and help cool things down for the inland areas. Palmer

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026

High confidence VFR through the TAF period for all terminals. Moderate to strong onshore flow will persist with LLWS tonight through mid-morning Saturday for the North Bay terminals with a slight offshore fetch at 2k feet. Relatively moderate to strong offshore flow will also persist through the TAF period for all terminals with widespread gradient forcing across our area.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period with strong, persistent onshore flow at KSFO through the TAF period, more moderate at KOAK. An Airport Weather Warning for wind gusts of 40 MPH or higher is likely for Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. Hazy skies may reduce slantwise visibility at times.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period with gusty onshore flow Saturday afternoon into the evening hours, becoming breezy after sunset.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 950 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will be widespread through the weekend. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will increase further through the weekend, becoming near gale force to gale force with severe gale force gusts Saturday and Sunday. Expect isolated storm force gusts along a coastal jet that will develop off of Big Sur beginning Saturday, with rough to very rough seas. Conditions will begin to improve by the beginning of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 511 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026

Gusty offshore winds are building and strengthen through the weekend, leading to elevated fire concerns. Peak gusts above 30 mph for most areas are expected, with around 40 to 50 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the interior regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow continues into the work week.

BEACHES

Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-530.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Storm Watch from 9 AM PDT this morning through Sunday evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.