textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Gusty offshore flow across the North Bay Interior Mountains this evening through Saturday morning

- Below normal temperatures today, increasing to near normal for the weekend

- Coastal flooding due astronomical high tides and thermal expansion this weekend through at least the middle of next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1200 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026 (This evening through Sunday)

Mostly clear sky conditions are expected by this afternoon across all of the Bay Area and north Central Coast as high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds and shifts eastward. However, the presence of the exiting trough will keep conditions slightly below seasonal averages. As a separate mid/upper level cut-off low moves into the northern portion of the Intermountain West, we will have a brief period of moderate offshore winds (locally strong in the highest peaks) across the North Bay Interior Mountains with northeasterly gusts to around 30-40 MPH late this evening and into Saturday morning. Again, the highest peaks have the potential to exceed 50 MPH. Elsewhere across the Bay Area, offshore winds will be weaker but still exist in elevations generally above 1,000 feet. Given the offshore flow aloft over much of the Bay Area, have lower confidence of fog development again overnight. That said, cannot rule out fog again over the North Bay Interior Valleys just before sunrise Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday afternoon maximum forecast temperatures will warm to near to slightly above seasonal averages as high pressure continues to build over the eastern Pacific. However, minor coastal flooding looks to return to bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay, San Francisco Bay, and Monterey Bay on Saturday and then low- lying areas along the Pacific Coast Monday during and around times of peak high tide. This is due to thermal expansion of the warm waters generated by El Nino and astronomical high tides through at least the middle of next week.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1200 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026 (Sunday night through next Thursday)

Temperatures drop to slightly below normal for much of next week as a series of troughs impact the Pacific Northwest. Thus, we are not expecting any precipitation until late in the week and into the following weekend (October 30th-November 1st). This is the time frame in which the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks give the Bay Area and north Central Coast a 50-60% probability of above normal precipitation which is more typical for a strong El Nino year as the Pacific jet stream drops farther south over southern California. Be sure to stay up-to-date with the latest forecast information from trusted sources.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Satellite imagery is messy this morning, depicting a mix of clear skies but also MVFR to VFR ceilings across the region. You can see some drier air that worked its way through, eroding stratus as it moves south but behind it clouds sink in from the northeast. Models aren't capturing this that well so opted to keep the general trends from the prior forecast and with VFR conditions by 20-21Z for most sites. Then skies will continue to clear as drier air continues to work into the region, leaving us with VFR conditions into tomorrow morning. There could be an exception for patchy fog in the North Bay Valleys around sunrise tomorrow given lingering moisture and the potential for radiational fog. But it'll have to compete against the drier air and weak offshore flow, so opted to keep conditions clear.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions are expected at SFO; however, there could be a couple of more hours of MVFR cigs trying to sneak their way through as some clouds move in from the northeast. SKies should clear during the late afternoon or early evening hours and be accompanied with breezy onshore winds. Overnight and into Saturday morning, light offshore winds are expected with onshore flow returning mid to late Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The morning stratus has eroded with stratocu blossoming behind it. This will leave us right around or just above VFR cigs for the next couple of hours, with skies clearing later this afternoon and into the evening. Overnight, light offshore winds develop keeping us VFR for through Saturday morning.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 915 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Conditions will continue to dry out this morning and be accompanied with fresh to locally strong northerly winds. Near gale force to gale force gusts possible across the far northern outer waters, with strong gusts south of Pigeon Point. Winds will gradually decrease through the day leading to moderate northerly breeze by Saturday morning and then prevailing through the upcoming week. Rough seas are expected today and tomorrow across the outer waters with wave heights peaking between 10 to 13 feet. Moderate seas prevail Sunday through much of next week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.