textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 AM PDT WED Jul 29 2026

- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through midweek

- Gradual warming starting midweek, with Moderate HeatRisk for interior locations through the weekend

- Elevated fire weather threat across the interior North and East Bay, Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week

- Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1243 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 (Today and tonight)

Interesting water vapor imagery overnight with a few weather features of note: impressive upper level ridge with monsoon moisture sparking storms over the Desert SW into the Rockies, a major hurricane Genevieve about 600 mi SW of Baja, and a weak dry slot shortwave trough sweeping through CA. While dry at 400mb over the Bay Area satellite fog product tells a different story. While not continuous, a much more robust marine layer is present tonight with stratus expanding over the coastal waters and beginning to move inland.

Morning inland stratus will quickly fade and erode back to the coast by mid-morning. Today will be a preview of what's to come the next few days: fading marine layer by mid-morning with warming inland temps. Wouldn't be surprised one bit if stratus lingering along the coast for much of the day. Temperatures this afternoon will be similar to Tuesday along the coast/bays with highs 60s/70s (a few low 80s) and away from the coast/marine layer influence temps will creep upwards with highs in the 80s to near 100.

One thing that will remain the same this afternoon will be the winds. Given the temp difference from the coast to inland onshore flow will bring breezy to gusty winds again. Winds will be strongest this afternoon/early evening with gusts 30-40 mph.

For tonight: despite building 500mb heights and some areas of offshore flow we will see the marine layer again with coastal clouds moving inland. Thermal belts will remain active too.

LONG TERM

Issued at 115 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)

The big highlight for the long term will be the building inland heat. Thankfully, onshore flow and lingering marine layer influence will keep coastal areas in check temp wise. The large upper level ridge currently sitting well to the east will build westward Thursday into the weekend. Generally speaking the forecast remains on track with warm to hot conditions across the interior with the hottest days being Saturday and Sunday. Confidence still remains high enough to keep some marine layer influence limiting heat potential near the coast. One change to tonight's forecast update are the temps for Saturday across the interior, which have trended down. Still over 100 degrees, but not shooting for 110 across interior Central Coast. This drop did temper HeatRisk values a little bit. Regardless of that trend, still expecting Moderate HeatRisk to develop across the interior Thursday and persisting through at least Sunday. If you have outdoor plans Thursday through Saturday across the interior be prepared and follow some basic heat safety tips: Stay hydrated, Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles, and limit activities during peak heating. The slight downward temp trend could also be attributed to some beefy NW winds over the coastal waters this weekend. ECMWF EFI highlights the strong winds over the coastal waters, which could help to enhance upwelling.

Temperatures will ease a bit late Sunday through late Monday as the large upper ridge flexes south with a passing trough to the north. The upper level ridge rebuilds by Tuesday into Wednesday causing temperatures to rise again. Longer guidance and the CPC outlook shows another round of even hotter temps will be possible around August 5 through August 8.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 432 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Coastal stratus /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ continues to develop and move inland into the East Bay and the Salinas Valley on onshore winds otherwise it's clear /VFR/. Additional patches of stratus will develop over the North Bay and the South Bay. Diurnal mixing will reduce stratus coverage back to the coastline today then patchy coastal stratus /MVFR-IFR/ redevelops tonight and Thursday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /IFR/ mixes out to VFR by 18z today then redevelops 09z tonight and prevails until 17z-18z Thursday. West winds up to 15 to 25 knots today, decreasing to 10 to 20 knots tonight and Thursday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /IFR-LIFR/ mixes out to VFR by late morning then redevelops tonight and Thursday morning. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots with afternoon gusts to 20 knots.

MARINE

(Today through Monday) Issued at 423 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Fresh to strong northwest breezes with near gale force gusts will continue through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Gale force gusts with moderate seas are expected along coastal jet regions along Big Sur and Point Reyes. Additionally, gale force winds are possible for the northern outer waters by the end of the weekend. Tropical activity will also continue to produce long period swell along our coastal waters into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The elevated fire weather threat will continue across portions of the area through at least this weekend. Overnight RH recovery will remain moderate to poor at locations at or above 2,000 feet with values between 35 to 50 percent, with some favored locations struggling to even reach 30 percent. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Afternoon RH will remain critically dry with values between 20 and 40 percent, with far southern portions of the interior Central Coast potentially seeing min RH near 10 percent. Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile across the interior Central Coast. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.

BEACHES

Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Long period southerly to southwesterly swell of 16-18 seconds will continue to impact our coastline over the next several days, bringing hazardous beach conditions to the Central Coast and the San Francisco Bay Area. Sneaker waves and strong rips currents will be the primary conditions, with breaking waves up to 12 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach. This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through Saturday afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.