textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Cooler weather through tomorrow; warming trend and above normal temperatures starting mid to late week

- Coastal flooding during high tides through midweek

- Hazardous beach conditions through this evening due to sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves

- Elevated fire weather conditions mid to late week for higher elevations

SHORT TERM

Issued at 118 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night)

An upper level trough dominates much of the West Coast's weather this afternoon as the closed low sits over the PacNW and broad troughing extends southward through California. To it's west, over the eastern Pacific, high pressure is being observed. Satellite imagery shows these too features quite well, with visible satellite showing the base of the trough over Central and Southern California. Most of our skies this afternoon remain clear; however, if you're in the interior Central Coast region, you may see some small puffs of cumulus clouds building over the ridges. So far there hasn't been any measurable rain reported or observed, likely due to the dry air in place and limited cloud growth.

Tonight, look for skies to clear and for another chilly fall night. Temperatures should generally similar to or a few degrees higher than last night. Tuesday's forecast will be similar to today, though skies across the region should be mostly clear with high temperatures being a few degrees warmer than today.

LONG TERM

Issued at 118 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)

An upper level high pressure system over the eastern Pacific will continue to build and expand eastward towards the West Coast. This will help push the upper level trough out of the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. During this time frame we will see a period of offshore flow during the overnight hours. As the high continues to build and the low moves east, each night will bring a renewed chance of these offshore winds. Especially late in the week, as the upper level trough elongates and then splits. When this occurs, the trough situates over the Desert Southwest and around southern California. Ridging remains over the northern half of the state which should lead to an increase of offshore flow and our warming trend. Ensembles and models then show signals of quasi-zonal flow and weak ridging for the weekend. Temperatures should decrease in response to the pattern change. For fire weather concerns, please see the fire weather discussion below.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period for most terminals due to drier airmass. Clear skies tonight will lead to some radiational cooling and possible fog (30-40%) for KSTS.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Diurnal wind pattern.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Diurnal wind pattern.

MARINE

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1030 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Improving conditions over the coastal waters today as winds continue to ease and overall seas state relaxes. However, fresh to strong breezes and elevated swell will bring hazardous conditions to smaller crafter over the outer waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 118 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

There will be a few bursts of offshore winds this week, generally during the overnight hours. The first burst looks to occur tonight, particularly highlight the interior North Bay Mountains, where we could see gusts range from 20-35 mph, perhaps even up to 40 mph for the exposed ridges and the higher elevations. After that, the next area of concern we are monitoring is Wednesday night into Thursday morning, where the pressure gradient should be a bit more tight due to upper level wind patterns. Majority of the area should see offshore flow, in the north to northeast component , with gusts closer to 25-35 mph, locally higher perhaps up to 45 mph for exposed ridges, gaps, and passes. Warm and dry weather will be on tap as well, which will lead to an elevated threat for the higher terrain areas. Another round of offshore winds is expected Thursday night into Friday, but appears to be weaker than the previous two.

BEACHES

Issued at 1031 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Compare to the last few days conditions along the coast are gradually improving as longer period swell trains are decreasing. However, buoy reports Monday morning continue to advertise moderate to longer period swells (albeit smaller heights) entering the coastal waters. As such, elevated surf zone conditions lingering. Additionally, moderate period west-northwest swell will arrive Monday afternoon lingering into Monday evening. As such, Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through this evening. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Never turn your back on the ocean!

MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.