textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages persist within the marine layer

- Warm, slightly above normal temperatures, and dry conditions continue above 1000 feet

- Pattern change Friday into the weekend brings cooler temperatures and low potential for tropical moisture

SHORT TERM

Issued at 128 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night)

The short term forecast is fairly unchanged as we remain on the border of troughing to the north and ridging to the south. Today's high temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s across interior lower elevations and mid 80s to low 90s across interior higher elevations. The interior Central Coast will be slightly warmer with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Coastal locations remain under the influence of a shallow marine layer, approx. 1000 feet, which will keep temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. We are expecting another early return of stratus along the coast tonight with the marine layer remaining between 1000-1200 feet. Ridging will become more dominant over the region tonight into tomorrow as the center of the ridge shifts slightly westward. This will result in temperatures warming by 2-5 degrees compared to today. Practically, this is the difference between the interior being in the low to mid 80s to mid to upper 80s while the higher elevations stay in the upper 80s to low 90s. No real changes to the coastal temperatures. Even with temperatures warming slightly, interior temperatures remain seasonal across the lower elevations and are only running 5-7 degrees above normal across the higher elevations. Coastal locations and areas along the SF Bay Shoreline will be seasonal to below normal. With similar weather conditions prevailing into the long term forecast, we will not be close to any record temperatures this week. Diurnally breezy winds are expected along the coast, higher terrain, and mountain gaps/passes.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A blanket of stratus has retreated to the coastline resulting in VFR conditions for most terminals, except for HAF. HAF may briefly scatter out this afternoon, but will mainly remain IFR through the TAF period. Moderate onshore flow persists during the day which will allow for a more prominent inland push of stratus tonight. The marine layer is expected to be around 1000 to 1200 feet overnight which will be sufficient enough to reach most terminals. High confidence for coastal sites (HAF, MRY, and SNS) to develop IFR to LIFR ceilings as early as sunset. Medium confidence on the exact arrival of IFR to MVFR ceilings elsewhere, though they may arrive as early as 04-06Z Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the afternoon as westerly winds increase to around 15 kt. Borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected tonight with the shallow marine layer and persistent onshore push, it just becomes a matter of when. High confidence OAK will develop ceilings before SFO, though medium confidence on the arrival as they may roll in a few hours later than specified.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR to LIFR ceilings will continue to lift this morning with VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon. An early return of IFR conditions is likely with ceilings gradually lowering to LIFR by late this evening/overnight. Some potential for reductions in visibility early tomorrow morning but that will depend how much the marine layer compresses and if fog is able to develop. Breezy onshore winds continue this afternoon/evening before winds ease overnight.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 506 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The stratus offshore looks much healthier than 24 hours ago and the confidence is much higher in widespread IFR-MVFR ceilings impacts tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...With the marine layer around 1,000 feet deep, the stratus is spilling through the Golden Gate, but isn't crossing from the peninsula side yet. Despite dodging the ceilings last night, the chances are much better for MVRF or IFR impacts tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Ceilings are closing in on MRY and should be settled in for the nigh no later than 02Z.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 506 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Gentle northwest breezes increase to moderate overnight with slight to moderate seas. Fresh breezes increase by Tuesday afternoon with strong gusts possible, particularly in the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Smoke may continue to reduce visibility as low as 2 miles along the Big Sur coast due to the Timber Fire. A long period southerly swell around 15 to 17 seconds approaches our coastal waters by the end of the week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.