textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week

- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)

- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1121 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 (Tonight through Friday)

The 00Z KOAK sounding found bone dry conditions through the troposphere. The precipitable water was measured at 0.34", which is near the 10th percentile for this time of year. The upper level pattern is mostly zonal with a weak ridge building. At the surface this pattern is supporting high pressure over the Rockies and lower pressure at the coast. There have been some gentle to moderate offshore winds as a result of this pressure gradient, although they were mostly overpowered by the sea breeze this afternoon. Expect dry conditions and comfortable temperatures to continue Friday.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1121 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 (Saturday through next Thursday)

The conditions are fairly consistent through the weekend, although a weak mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This won't be a major factor for our weather, but temperatures will come down a couple degrees back to seasonal average. The more interesting feature is set to arrive mid to late next week. Ensembles are in good agreement that a deep trough will impact the coast and bring some rain. There is quite a bit of disagreement on the amount of moisture however. Ensemble precipitable water (PWAT) values are all over the place. Euro ensemble members are estimating PWAT between 0.4" to an inch, meanwhile GFS ensemble members estimate between 0.3 to 1.1 inches. Ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) values are not much better with a spread of 0.01 to 1.4 inches of rain. Needless to say, it is too early to pin down how much rain is expected, but the window opens around Wednesday through Thursday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 907 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Currently VFR. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Warmer and drier conditions should preclude fog/stratus development; however, there is a low probability for radiational fog/stratus to develop. If it develops, it'll likely be between 08Z and 20Z with the best chances 14Z to 18Z.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...If radiational fog/stratus develops, it'll likely initiate along the San Mateo Bridge Approach.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to continue though the TAF period. Drainage winds will persist overnight before veering mid morning returning the area to sea breeze conditions.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 907 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Rough, ten foot seas will result in hazardous conditions for small craft across the outer waters through Saturday. Very rough seas will build into the outer waters Sunday into Monday with moderate to rough seas across the inner waters. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will prevail across the inner and outer waters with bays remaining more sheltered.

BEACHES

Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.