textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 AM PST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Dry and mild this week with stratus overnight and through the morning

- Cooler temperatures this weekend as the next system approaches

- Confidence increasing for gusty offshore winds by the end of the upcoming weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1226 AM PST Mon Nov 24 2025 (Today and tonight)

The stratus layer envelops most of the Bay Area valleys and extends in to the Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley regions, with the expectation that the layer continues to build through the night somewhat undercut by the clearing of the Santa Rosa Plain. Will monitor how the stratus evolves through the night, but will hold firm on seeing a general expansion of the stratus layer through the rest of the morning. A more pressing question will be how dense fog evolves through the next several hours. At this point the only station that has consistently reported dense fog (1/4 mi visibility or less) is Byron in the southeastern corner of Contra Costa County, with trends across the Central Valley suggesting that dense fog is also present across the eastern tier of Contra Costa County (east of the Diablo Hills, including the Antioch area). Fog has also been reported across other regions of the Bay Area, including Concord and Novato, but we have not seen the widespread dense fog anywhere that would trigger a Dense Fog Advisory. If observations show more widespread fog development, one may need to be issued later this morning. For those morning commuters who do encounter dense fog, slow down, use low-beam headlights, and allow extra distance between you and the car in front of you. In any case, stratus should begin to dissipate sometime after sunrise and be generally cleared out by the afternoon.

The weather pattern remains largely similar to yesterday's with a weak ridge aloft and a gentle onshore flow this afternoon. High temperatures range from the middle to upper 60s in the inland valleys to the upper 50s to middle 60s across the coastal and Bayside regions.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1226 AM PST Mon Nov 24 2025 (Tuesday through Sunday)

A building ridge aloft brings a gradual warming trend for Tuesday into Thanksgiving (Thursday), compressing the marine layer and raising temperatures by a few degrees, with the rise in temperatures somewhat balanced out by some cold air advection stemming from an interaction between a building high in the east Pacific and a building low in the Desert Southwest. The warmest spots of the inland valleys (think the Morgan Hill-Gilroy region and the southern Salinas Valley) might touch the lower 70s on Wednesday and Thursday.

Towards Friday into the upcoming weekend, a pattern change will occur as the ridge over the western United States breaks down, and one amplifies upstream across the Gulf of Alaska. As a result, cold Arctic air descends into the Mountain West and Central Plains states. Ensemble model guidance continues to point to this system following more of an inside slider like development in our region. In other words, the impacts of this trough fall into the windy and dry side rather than the rainy side. Still too early to tell how strong the impacts will be and where the greatest threats will occur, but the current forecast has a period of gusty offshore winds developing across the Bay Area and Central Coast late Saturday through, and somewhat beyond, the end of the 7-day forecast period. Confidence in the exact nature of the impacts will improve through the rest of the week, so keep in touch with the forecast updates for the most up to date information.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

The inland stratus intrusion has momentum to it this evening, from a surface pressure perspective SFO-WMC and SFO-SAC gradients are both weakly onshore (vs 24 hours ago WMC-SFO was 5.5 mb). Satellite, surface observations including a recent spotter report from Pleasant Hill indicate stratus ceilings and onshore winds are to some extent along the leading edge blending in with the western edge of tule fog /VLIFR/ that is in parts of the East Bay. A lower level cyclonic circulation with drier air is also intruding in along the back side of the stratus along the coastline at least temporarily mixing out the stratus.

Observations are still VFR-MVFR over the forecast area except IFR- LIFR due to residual evening stratus and fog in the East Bay and the North Bay. As mentioned, cooler air from the surface to lower levels continues to filter in from the west and northwest, ceilings tonight and Monday morning will be a mix of MVFR and IFR-LIFR including possibly VLIFR in dense fog. The 00z (4 pm PST) Oakland sounding, much like this morning's 12z sounding, showed a lower level subsidence temperature inversion based near 1500 feet; cooler air remains well entrenched under the temperature inversion with additional cooler air arriving tonight and Monday morning per NAM output (with additional loss of heat to space via radiative cooling where it's initially dry/clear sky). For tomorrow HREF shows clearing by 21z (1 pm PST) across the Bay Area, suggesting improving mixing may result in earlier mix out times compared to today.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently it's back to VFR with a dry air intrusion from the north. Best guess is that night-time cooling and cool air advection will help redevelop a stratus ceiling with tempo MVFR 06z-10z then MVFR prevailing until 20z Monday. West wind 10 knots decreasing to light westerly wind then near 10 knots Monday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-IFR tonight and Monday morning. VFR by late morning and early afternoon Monday. Light and variable winds to light southeasterly winds tonight and Monday morning, then shifting to onshore 5 to 10 knots Monday afternoon and early evening.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 859 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

High pressure will persist over the coastal waters through mid and late week. Seas will gradually ease Monday through the middle of the week with gentle to moderate northerly breezes. Winds begin to increase along with building seas by the end of the week and into next weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 614 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.