textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Rain and wind to impact the region through this evening

- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through high tide today

- Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions Saturday

- Periods of rain continue through next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)

A cold front is currently moving through the Bay Area and north Central Coast producing light to moderate, and at times brief heavy downpours. There remain a slight chance (15% or less) of thunderstorms across the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and the San Francisco Bay Area through early afternoon. However, there haven't been any reports or indications of lightning so far. We have seen wind gusts up to around 55-65 mph, but those have been mostly in the peaks across the region and up to 55 mph along the coast. Still enough to result in downed trees and branches leading to isolated power outages. Also, have had a few reports of nuisance flooding in the Santa Cruz Mountains and elsewhere across the region. Not expecting much more than typically poor drainage areas and minor roadway flooding across he region. The front will clear the North Bay soon, the Bay Area by around 3 PM, and the Central Coast by 6 PM. In wake of the frontal passage, expecting post frontal rain showers to persist this evening and into early Saturday morning.

Tonight, temperatures are forecast to be cooler than the previous nights. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower 40s in the North Bay and southern Salinas Valley with mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. The coldest wind sheltered valleys potentially will be as cold as the upper 30s Saturday morning.

Saturday, we are expecting mostly dry conditions across the region with partly to mostly cloudy skies. However, temperatures will struggle to warm to the mid 60s in the lower elevations while the peaks top out in the upper 40s to 50s.

Please check the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory.

LONG TERM

Issued at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)

A second cold front is forecast to move through the region on Sunday, first across the North Bay and then through the remainder of the Bay Area and Central Coast in the afternoon and evening hours. Currently, rainfall totals are forecast to be similar to today's frontal passage. In wake of that front, Tuesday morning's minimum temperatures are forecast to be in 30s across the North Bay Valleys, southern Salinas Valley, and 40s elsewhere. Will need to monitor for cold weather products.

From previous forecaster: "Another lull in the rainfall comes later Monday into Tuesday, before a third system comes into the region later on Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too early at this stage to be confident on how much rain this third system will bring.

As we go through the week, the main point to watch will be soil saturation across the region. The initial rounds of rain will be generally beneficial, reducing our fire weather threat and recharging the snowpack across the Sierra Nevada. Flooding concerns will be minimal with nuisance flooding possible across urban areas and small streams. Outside of these areas, rainwater is absorbed into the ground, which at this time, remains rather dry. As the rain continues to arrive, local soils saturate and are no longer able to hold as much additional rainfall, thus diverting excess water onto the surface and streams and rivers. Wet soils will also increase the chance for shallow landslides across the Bay Area, leading to further damage to homes and properties. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the pattern remains active with a lean towards rainfall totals above the seasonal average through late November. We will need to monitor what this will mean for soil saturation and the possibility for landslides through the next week."

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 946 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

Dynamic day across all terminals with impacts likely. ATTM a cold front is knocking on the door step. Steadier rain is beginning to develop over the N and then will spread across the big 3 19-21Z timeframe. Heavier rain will drop CATs to IFR. Expect IFR with the frontal passage, but looking upstream behind the front some clear is expected with MVFR to VFR CATs. In addition to rain and lower CIGs winds will be strong and gusty ahead of and during the fropa. AWW remains in effect for SFO. Tonight will transition to widely scattered showers and decreasing winds.

Vicinity of SFO...Delayed timing by an hour or so from 12Z taf. Heaviest precip is now on track for 19-21Z timeframe. Do expect a wind shift this afternoon behind the front. Winds will taper off after 00Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR and breezy until later this afternoon. Drainage/terrain flow will chance winds for SNS through this afternoon.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 854 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

Dangerous conditions will exist over the coastal waters today due to strong to gale winds as a cold front sweeps through. The front will also bring a chance for thunderstorms to the waters north of the Golden Gate. Rough to very rough seas will develop today as a large swell builds. Winds will diminish tonight and Saturday with high pressure temporarily building in across the coastal waters and bays. Southerly winds will become gusty on Sunday ahead of the next cold front. Significant wave heights will build up to 25 feet by Saturday. Wave heights will decrease slightly by Sunday before increasing on Monday.

BEACHES

Issued at 1200 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM tonight, at which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker waves through the day, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 35 feet. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft are likely at favored breakpoints. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Today):

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):

The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly during high tide.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006- 506-508-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

High Surf Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Gale Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.