textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 109 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

- Generally pleasant conditions with temperatures remaining above the seasonal average through the next week

- Minor coastal flooding directly along the bayshore for the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday

- Hazardous beach conditions due to an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents for Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 109 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026 (Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery shows some high level clouds streaming across the North Bay into the SF Bay Area, spilling over from a cold front in the northeastern Pacific associated with a low pressure system off the coast of British Columbia. Otherwise the region remains generally clear. Patchy fog is possible across the North Bay interior valleys and the interior portions of Contra Costa County, although confidence in the forecast is moderate given the stream of high clouds which could inhibit radiational cooling across the region. Low temperatures this morning drop into the lower to middle 40s for the interior valleys and the Bays, with lows in the upper 30s across the southern reaches of Monterey County, while the Pacific coast sees lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

Through the day, upper level ridging continues to dominate across California, leading to clear to partly cloudy skies, seasonably warm temperatures and light to gentle offshore flow across the region. High temperatures across the region range from the lower to middle 60s across the North Bay and most of the SF Bay Area, into the upper 60s to the middle 70s in the South Bay and the valleys of the Central Coast.

Minor coastal flooding is possible for low-lying areas directly along the bayshore of the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays near high tide today through Sunday, the result of a combination of elevated astronomical tides and storm surge from the system off the coast of British Columbia. Note that we are not anticipating major coastal flooding impacts like those seen at the beginning of the month, and will be limited to those locations that typically see impacts from the King Tides. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, the maximum inundation is expected to be around 1.4 feet above normally dry ground, or 7.20 ft MLLW, at around 8:34 AM today; this figure includes impacts from both astronomical tides and storm surge. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.

LONG TERM

Issued at 109 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026 (Saturday through Thursday)

Little change to the forecast is expected Saturday with upper level ridging remaining across the region and temperatures continuing to hover in the middle 60s to middle 70s inland. San Jose continues to flirt with its daily record with a high temperature forecast of 70, just one degree shy of tying the record high of 71 from 2015.

A trough will come through the region Sunday and Monday, with the main impacts being to cool the South Bay and Central Coast valleys to the middle 60s to near 70 for those two days. Rain chances continue to trend northwards and diminish across the North Bay. The ECMWF ensemble now shows a grand total of 0 members out of 50 with a trace of precipitation at the Sonoma County Airport. For context, the previous forecaster saw 2 of 50 ECMWF ensemble members showing a trace at STS. Adding the GFS and Canadian ensemble models gives us 50 more ensemble members, none of which show any rain at STS (compared to 2 out of 30 members for the GFS ensemble, and 4 out of 20 for the Canadian ensemble, when the previous forecaster was writing their discussion). Still can't rule out light drizzle over the Sonoma Coastal Range, but the chances of accumulating rain have dropped to around 10-20% across the region.

Upper level ridging returns by Tuesday and persists into the end of the 7-day outlook, and temperatures should rebound to the middle 60s to middle 70s in the interior valleys. CPC outlooks indicate a high likelihood (80-90% probability) of temperatures above the seasonal average for the 6-10 day period (February 4 to 8), and that it is slightly more likely than not (50-60% probability) that precipitation totals remain below the seasonal averages during that same period. For context, downtown San Francisco typically sees highs around 60 and rainfall totals around three quarters of an inch during this period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of STS which has been experiencing LIFR fog. Moderate to high confidence in VFR prevailing otherwise with warmer and drier conditions than 24 hours ago and high clouds streaming in. Diurnal winds will prevail.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northerly flow. High confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Light northerly winds will prevail through the morning before veering to become northeasterly this afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with drainage flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Diurnal winds will prevail.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Seas will continue to abate through tomorrow to become moderate. Gentle to moderate northerly/offshore breezes will prevail through Saturday. Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday into Monday as seas build to become rough for the inner waters and outer waters and northerly breezes increase to become fresh to strong. Conditions improve Tuesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.

PZ...None.