textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 209 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

- Hazardous beach conditions through Friday

- Tule fog and stratus continue for the North Bay, East Bay and South Bay

- Light rain remains possible next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 209 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025 (This evening through Friday)

Clearing skies have finally returned to much of the region, aside from the far interior East Bay and bay side areas of Marin County. Thus, as high pressure remains in place over the Bay Area and Central Coast, we are expecting to see temperatures reach into the mid to lower 70s in the higher terrain and interior areas of the Central Coast. Elsewhere, mid 50s to lower 60s can be expected around much of the Bay Area, North Bay and East Bay this afternoon. These areas still remain under the influence cooler conditions observed in the Central Valley as offshore winds persist.

Tonight, expecting another return of tule stratus and/or fog across much the valleys in the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and areas around the Bay Area. This is as high pressure remains parked over the region and light to moderate offshore winds.

For Friday, temperatures will largely be above average for this time of year, again expect for those that remain beneath the cloud cover for much of the day. We have warmer temperatures across the board for Friday but have largely used persistence as guidance.

LONG TERM

Issued at 209 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

By Saturday the ridge axis shifts to the east and gives way to more of a zonal flow aloft. However, temperatures will still remain some 5-10 degrees (up to 15 degrees in the higher elevations) above seasonal averages. By Sunday and Monday we should begin to see high level clouds move into the region from the north. This will be signs of the ridge fattening and zonal flow returning with light the potential for light rain by Monday, especially across the North Bay and as far south as the Bay Area. Chances linger at times through much Friday. Again, rainfall amounts are currently forecast to be light and not amount to much more than 0.25" through next Friday (again for the Bay Area and points northward). Little to no rainfall (outside of the Santa Cruz Mountains) is expected across the Central Coast and Santa Clara Valley.

From the previous forecaster: "The most interesting development in the forecast is in the extended long range, where there is a moderate chance for an atmospheric river late next week. It's too early to talk about specific impacts or timing, but the Climate Predication Center has placed the Bay Area in a moderate risk for both heavy precipitation and strong winds from 12/18-12/21. The bullseye looks like far northern California, but that has been trending south over the last few model updates."

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 937 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

Sounding like a broken record, but aviation impacts again this morning for N, E, and S Bay Terminals due to IFR conditions (cigs/fg). Similar to yesterday, patchy clouds were hit or miss inside SF Bay and that is the case again this morning. N and E Bay will be last to clear for KSTS,KAPC,KLVK. KSJC will be late morning for clearing. Monterey Bay terminals remains VFR. For tonight, will lean toward persistence, but as high pressure continues to build overhead the cloud deck will become more compressed leading to lower cigs and potential for more fog. overall conf is moderate.

Vicinity of SFO...Feed south of the terminal drift north bringing IFR condition. Thankfully they'll be temporary. VFR expected this afternoon. No cigs in taf for tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Slantwise vis could be reduced again this afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 833 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

High pressure off of the coast will maintain northerly fresh breezes across the outer coastal waters with light to gentle breezes near shore. Light offshore winds will continue from the Delta to the San Francisco Bay and through the Golden Gate. A new, long period northwesterly swell will last into this weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 1110 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

Long period NW swell is causing hazardous beach conditions through Friday. This energy brings strong rip currents, an increased risk for sneaker waves, and large breaking waves. This coincides with nice warm weather, which will likely lure more people to the beach under a false sense of security. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through Friday evening. Respect the power of the ocean and never turn your back on it.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...None.