textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Slightly warmer weather arrives today

- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday 11/13

- Hazardous beach conditions through Saturday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 (Today and tonight)

A weak ridge is building over California. At the surface a 1028 mb high pressure center is parked over southern Idaho, with an inverted trough along the California Coast. SFO is reporting pressure around 1020 mb. The gradient between these two mesoscale features is supporting some NNE, offshore winds tonight. Mt. St. Helena is reporting NNE winds with gusts to 30 mph at the moment, which should increase a bit as the diurnal offshore gradient effect reaches it's max in the pre-dawn hours.

This ridge is bringing a warmer air mass and large scale sinking air. As an example of this, the 00Z sounding found a clear subsidence inversion in the middle troposphere. The 850 mb temperature is around the 25th percentile for this time of year, while 500 mb temperature is around the 75th percentile.

As this ridge continues to build through the day, the warmer temperatures will descend closer to the surface. Max temperatures this afternoon will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday for most. Despite the warmer than normal air mass, another round of high clouds should keep inland temperatures from getting above the mid 70s.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)

The ridging pattern is here to stay for 5-7 days and the weak offshore gradient will stick around through Friday before flipping back onshore. That means the weather will be pretty boring for a while. Temperatures will be in the 60s along the coast and 70s inland into the middle of next week with no chance of rain. There is growing confidence that a deep trough will bring rain back in the forecast in the 7-14 day window. The ECMWF ensemble mean shows 2" of rain at SFO between Wednesday the 11th and Wednesday the 18th. That's about normal for the entire month.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 324 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Mostly VFR conditions have prevailed with high clouds over the SF Bay Area and Central Coast. Some patchy radiational fog has developed in the North Bay valleys with dissipation expected a little after sunrise. A moderate northwest wind will develop in the afternoon and evening hours, diminishing overnight. High resolution models are showing some stratus development inland tonight through Friday morning, but confidence in the extent is low and the TAFs remain VFR into the end of the 24-hour TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR prevails through at least the evening hours. Light offshore winds will turn into a moderate northwest breeze in the afternoon and evening hours. As winds diminish tonight into Friday morning, low confidence for IFR-MVFR stratus impacts. Greater confidence at OAK but have elected to keep the TAF VFR at this time.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR prevails through at least the evening hours. Light drainage winds through the morning will develop into a gentle onshore wind this afternoon and evening, with a low confidence of IFR-MVFR stratus impacts this evening into Friday morning.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Quiet weather on tap for the rest of the week as high pressure builds into the region. Moderate to fresh north winds prevail through Friday and slacken to gentle to moderate breezes for Sunday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through the weekend. Chances for rain arrive for the middle of next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.