textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Rain and wind come through this morning and afternoon

- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through high tide today

- Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions Saturday

- Periods of rain continue through the next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2026 (Today and tonight)

KMUX radar is showing echoes from pre-frontal showers across the coastal regions from Big Sur to Sonoma County with some rainfall already being reported along the coastal ranges and other favored areas. So far tonight, around 0.14" have been reported at the Big Sur RAWS and 0.05" at the Oak Ridge RAWS in the Sonoma County coastal ranges. The isolated pre-frontal showers should continue through the night.

The weather picture features a deep upper level low centered off the Pacific Northwest that will progress eastwards and bring a frontal system into the region. This frontal system will be the initial round of a series of storms that will extend through the seven-day forecast -- more on that in the next section. For this round, high resolution model output shows the main frontal rain band starting to enter the North Bay around the time of the morning commute, extending into the central Bay Area later in the morning into the early afternoon, and passing through the Central Coast in the afternoon hours. Rainfall totals will top out around half an inch to an inch across much of the Bay Area save the far interior East Bay, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia range. Rain totals in the Santa Clara Valley and the Monterey-Salinas area lie around a third of an inch to an inch while the interior parts of the Central Coast should expect a tenth to a third of an inch. Strong winds are expected to build as the front approaches with sustained winds generally around 15-30 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph across the region. Locally higher gusts to 50 mph are possible at the immediate coast, especially near Monterey Bay and the Big Sur coast, and through favored gaps and passes including the San Bruno Gap, the Altamont Pass, the Carquinez Strait, Bayshore locations along San Pablo Bay, and the Salinas Valley. Another concern will be the risk of thunderstorms embedded within the main rain band and potentially in the post-frontal environment. The cold low will be centered to our north, but will still bring cool enough air aloft to bring the MUCAPE values up to 100-300 J/kg. That would be within the top 10% of soundings at Oakland for practically any time of year. There is also strong shear aloft enhanced by the region coming within the left exit region of a jet streak visible at the 500 mb level, where the decelerating winds and vertical circulation support an area of upper level divergence, which would support convective activity in the area. A slight (15%) chance of thunder has been added to the SF Bay Area for this morning and afternoon as a result. K-Index values from the European model top out around 30 degrees C, which would support isolated thunderstorms.

Behind the main front, the rain becomes showery and winds will diminish and turn towards the west and northwest. Highs today will be remarkably cooler than yesterday's with the lower elevations seeing highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s while the higher elevations of eastern Santa Clara County and the Central Coast drop into the lower to middle 50s.

Hazardous beach conditions are forecast for the Pacific coast through the evening with dangerous conditions expected to develop into Saturday. A Beach Hazards Statement is currently in effect for the Pacific coast for breaking waves 15 to 20 feet along with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents, while High Surf Warnings will go into effect 6 PM tonight into early Sunday morning due to surf heights of 25 to 35 feet accompanied by a high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. In addition, coastal flooding concerns due to high tides persist at the bayshore locations along San Pablo, San Francisco, and southern Monterey Bays through the high tide cycle today, along with coastal flooding along the Pacific coast due to wave runup impacts on Saturday. See the BEACHES section for more details.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2026 (Saturday through Thursday)

Saturday will feature a lull in the rain with some lingering post- frontal showers in the morning, as highs reach the lower to middle 60s across the lower elevations. Then, a second frontal system comes through Sunday into the early part of Monday. At this time, it looks like the rainfall totals will be similar to Friday's system with generally beneficial effects. Another lull in the rainfall comes later Monday into Tuesday, before a third system comes into the region later on Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too early at this stage to be confident on how much rain this third system will bring.

As we go through the week, the main point to watch will be soil saturation across the region. The initial rounds of rain will be generally beneficial, reducing our fire weather threat and recharging the snowpack across the Sierra Nevada. Flooding concerns will be minimal with nuisance flooding possible across urban areas and small streams. Outside of these areas, rainwater is absorbed into the ground, which at this time, remains rather dry. As the rain continues to arrive, local soils saturate and are no longer able to hold as much additional rainfall, thus diverting excess water onto the surface and streams and rivers. Wet soils will also increase the chance for shallow landslides across the Bay Area, leading to further damage to homes and properties. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the pattern remains active with a lean towards rainfall totals above the seasonal average through late November. We will need to monitor what this will mean for soil saturation and the possibility for landslides through the next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

MVFR conditions are expected as the cold frontal passage moves in to our forecast area. Moderate to high confidence of ceilings lowering to MVFR just prior to or shortly after midnight. Strong southerly winds are expected to persist into mid-day Friday, with gusts in excess of 35kts possible. Rain is expected to move in to our forecast area after midnight, most likely in the early morning hours, expected to slow down as we head into the afternoon. After frontal passage, rain will become more showery in nature and winds will start to decrease.

Vicinity of SFO...There is moderate confidence of VFR conditions shifting to MVFR as we move into the overnight hours and the front approaches. Southerly winds are expected to continue to increase overnight, with gusts up to 35kts as we head into Friday morning. Rain chances are expected to increase to 50% after 15Z, but confidence on the exact start time continues to remain low. Late afternoon rain chances will diminish, and winds will start to decrease into the overnight hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Winds will be gusty, in excess of 34 knots, across the SF Bay Friday morning with a Gale Warning in effect from 9AM to 3PM Friday. Otherwise, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with conditions to deteriorate overnight as a moderate band of showers approaches the region. Scattered showers ahead of the main front will reach MRY and SNS closer to 15Z with the main band arriving between 18-20Z. It is possible the band could slow down which would likely delay arrival by another 1-2 hours. MVFR ceilings, strong southerly winds gusting to around 30 knots, and light to moderate rain are all expected as the band arrives. Reduced visibilities, particularly during heavier showers, are expected during the main frontal passage. Conditions improve after frontal passage occurs with winds shifting more west to northwest and decreasing. Scattered showers remain through the end of the forecast period.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 955 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2026

Strong to near gale force gusts will continue to strengthen tonight into Friday morning with gale force gusts becoming more widespread by mid to late morning as a cold front pushes through our coastal waters. Localized, occasional storm force gusts are possible within portions of the Monterey Bay Friday morning into the afternoon. After frontal passage, winds will shift westerly and decrease to a moderate breeze by Friday evening. Significant wave heights will gradually build to up to 30 feet by Saturday with high seas to continue through much of the weekend due to a distant hurricane force low. Wave heights decrease slightly Sunday before increasing again Monday. Small crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these extreme sea states.

BEACHES

Issued at 1200 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM tonight, at which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker waves through the day, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 35 feet. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft are likely at favored breakpoints. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Today):

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):

The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly during high tide.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006- 506-508-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

High Surf Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PST this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.