textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Above normal temperatures and minor HeatRisk today

- An early season, long duration heat wave will bring record breaking temperatures and moderate HeatRisk through the week

- Elevated potential for grass fires due to warm and dry conditions and periods of moderate offshore winds next week

UPDATE

Issued at 909 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Thanks to a shallow marine layer, we're off to an overcast start to the day along the coast and SF Bay shoreline. Cloud cover will clear by late morning with highs in the 60s along the coast and 70s across the interior today. Will need to keep an eye on coastal temperatures in the event that they need to be tweaked tonight, otherwise the forecast remains on track. A prolonged heatwave continues to be forecast for next week. If there are any outdoor activities/tasks you need to complete, it is advised to do them this weekend before heat fully settles in Monday.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 (Today and tonight)

The high clouds from yesterday are slowly clearing as marine stratus starts to form along the coast from Davenport to Pt. Reyes. These low clouds will gradually advect south towards the Central Coast before clearing in the late morning hours. Despite the increased afternoon sunshine, temperatures will be similar to Friday thanks to a weak short wave disturbance taking a bite out of the ridge. This will also help support stronger onshore winds, particularly along the coast. Overall it will be another nice day across the Bay Area and Central Coast before the warmer weather moves in.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1210 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

The ridge starts to build in earnest on Sunday. The return of high clouds will help dull the heat impacts a bit before the ridge reaches its full strength and clouds clear on Monday. At that point the pattern is pretty steady, with temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal for this time year from Monday through Friday. That translates to highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s along the coast, and upper 80s to mid 90s inland. The forecast trend has been ever so slightly cooler for the first half of the week, but a little warmer in the second half. The ridge axis is still expected to slide east of us on Tuesday, but it then strengthens over the SW mid week, keeping the heat impacts pretty consistent through Friday.

The upper level statistics all continue to point to record breaking heat. Ensembles show high confidence that the 850mb temp will get close to 20C, and the 500mb height should reach 5900m. These are both higher than we've ever observed in March since routine weather balloon launches began in the late 1940s. When combined with offshore winds and the long duration of this heat wave, it's hard to imagine we won't break a few monthly temperature records. That being said, it's still March. The nights are much longer than in Summer, and that will allow low elevation temperatures to drop back into the upper 50s/low 60s. This will help reduce the cumulative heat impacts this week, and we are only expecting moderate HeatRisk outside of the mountains.

As fine fuels dry this week, the potential for grass fires will increase. Offshore winds will be moderate at times. If you are participating in any outdoor activities (camping, offroading, hiking, etc) exercise caution when using fire and be aware that the risk of grass fires will be elevated.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The last of any lingering stratus this morning is currently in the process of lifting out with VFR expected to prevail through the remainder the day and evening hours. Northwest winds will be gusty at times this afternoon for terminals closer to the Pacific coastline.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with a slight chance late in the TAF period Sunday morning for MVFR vis/cigs, confidence is too low for mentioning in the TAF attm.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is is expected to prevail for the remainder of the day and evening with MVFR cigs possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. Confidence is high that MVFR cigs will develop between 10pm and midnight PDT.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 909 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Fresh to moderate north/northwest breezes will persist today and tomorrow, with stronger winds resulting in steep fresh swell. Seas and winds will ease across the inner waters by Sunday afternoon followed by the outer waters on Monday. Expect calm conditions through the remainder of the extended forecast.

CLIMATE

Issued at 614 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for March 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th.

Location Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18

Santa Rosa 88 in 2004 91 in 2004 87 in 1996 84 in 2010 San Rafael 83 in 1972 87 in 1972 84 in 1972 80 in 1996 Kentfield 85 in 2004 86 in 2004 87 in 1914 89 in 1914 Napa 86 in 2004 88 in 2004 92 in 1914 87 in 1914 Richmond 85 in 2004 84 in 1972 83 in 2004 78 in 1996 Livermore 83 in 1972 88 in 1972 87 in 1972 86 in 2004 San Francisco 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 85 in 1914 86 in 1914 SFO Airport 81 in 2004 82 in 2004 82 in 2004 77 in 2004 Redwood City 84 in 2004 84 in 2004 85 in 2004 84 in 2004 Half Moon Bay 74 in 1974 78 in 1972 83 in 2004 75 in 1978 Oakland Museum 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 81 in 2004 San Jose 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 88 in 1914 87 in 1914 Salinas Airport 83 in 1972 87 in 2004 87 in 2004 84 in 1960

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.