textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 201 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Moderate to major HeatRisk across the interior through next week Thursday

- Elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain through next week Thursday

- Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through this evening.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 201 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows high clouds streaming over head and below that most of the stratus from this morning seems to have eroded. Webcams around Half Moon and San Francisco Bay show a few lingering low and mid level clouds. The marine layer this morning was around 500-800ft per the OAK sounding, which was on track with some of the hi-res models. Expect the marine layer to continue to compress leaving us at 500ft for tonight, which would limit stratus development. If it re-develops, it'd start around San Francisco's and expand south. The highest confidence for stratus re- development is around the Monterey Bay and the along the Central Coast with the potential for patches of dense fog. Any fog or stratus that develops should be short lived, leading to a warm and sunny Saturday.

Saturday kicks off the warming trend for the upcoming week, with a Heat Advisory going into effect at 11AM Saturday and running through 10PM Monday for the majority of the inland areas. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk with pockets of Major HeatRisk forecast are during this time. Temperatures might be at risk on Saturday if stratus doesn't develop, leading to warmer temperatures near the coast. This

LONG TERM

Issued at 201 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)

As noted above, a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11AM Saturday and running through 10PM Monday. Models, including the NBM, have trended with warmer temperatures into early to mid next week even though an upper level shortwave trough tries to move through Monday. Given the trends, opted to expand the Heat Advisory into Monday, but held off on any decisions for Tuesday or Wednesday. Upper level ridging builds back in Tuesday through Thursday, with a potential pattern change occuring Friday or Saturday. Temperatures should start ease Thursday and with the trend continuing into Friday.

With all that being said, no records are in jeopardy as October is one of the hottest months for the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Another push of weak offshore flow across the Bay Area terminals overnight will help maintain the stratus marine layer confined to the coast. This combined with further compression of the marine layer will result in widespread VFR conditions across most terminals this TAF period. HAF, MRY, and SNS are the only exceptions as they are susceptible to LIFR ceilings as early as 9-11 PM PDT tonight. Similar to last night, there is a moderate chance for fog to form at HAF and MRY. Conditions at these sites will improve early Saturday morning. High level clouds will continue to dominate the skies overnight and gradually diminish by Saturday morning. Onshore winds around 5-10 kt become variable overnight with the push of weak offshore (NE to E) flow. By late Saturday morning, the onshore wind pattern prevails with similar speeds as today.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF cycle with high level clouds cruising through. Northwest to westerly winds gradually ease to around 5 kt overnight. Another push of easterly winds are expected at SFO Saturday morning before becoming northwesterly around 12 kt through the afternoon. Winds at OAK remain southwest to westerly. Overall, medium to high confidence in the forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Slight reductions to visibility is expected into the evening around 5-6SM HZ, but will gradually improve by tonight. Otherwise, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR into the evening with moderate confidence for a later return of LIFR ceilings. MRY has a higher chance of fog development overnight compared to SNS, though low to medium confidence on the exact timing. A southerly flow develops overnight at the terminals with an early clearing time for stratus. By late Saturday morning, VFR prevails through the day.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 523 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A gentle to moderate northerly to northwesterly breeze will continue through into early next week. Low to moderate seas will also persist into much of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 353 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Ridging will lead to hot and dry conditions across the region through the seven day outlook. Daytime humidity retention will remain poor to very poor away from the immediate coast, while overnight, the thermal belts remain active and humidity retention in the higher elevations is poor. Pushes of offshore flow are possible in the higher elevations each morning. Hazardous heat builds this weekend, particularly impacting fire crews across the interior mountains and the Santa Lucia range.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006- 506-508-529-530.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Monday for CAZ503- 504-506-508-510-512>518.

PZ...None.