textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1252 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Dry and mild this week with stratus overnight and through the morning

- Gradual warming trend through Thanksgiving with highs near or slightly above seasonal averages

- Confidence increasing for a drier outcome for the storm at the end of this week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1252 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025 (Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery shows stratus development across the Sonoma County valleys and western Marin County, hugging the coast of San Francisco and San Mateo Counties, and isolated patches developing in the Berkeley-Richmond area, the Santa Clara Valley, and the southern Monterey Peninsula. Data from the profiler at Bodega Bay and careful analysis of surface observations suggests a marine layer depth of around 500-1000 feet. The forecast update calls for the stratus layer to expand across Napa Valley, the Bay Area, the southern Monterey Bay, and the northern Salinas Valley through the rest of the night, before retreating to the immediate coast during the day.

The large-scale flow is rather zonal (west-to-east) today as an upper level low moves northeastward across the Four Corners states. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal averages with high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s inland and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific and Bayside coasts. Low temperatures this morning and tonight will lie in the upper 30s to middle 40s in the inland valleys, and the middle 40s to near 50 along the coast. A gentle onshore breeze develops in the afternoon but is not expected to be very strong, with gusts reaching 20 to 25 miles per hour at most along favored coastal locations.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1252 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025 (Monday through Saturday)

Conditions remain very similar on Monday, before a building ridge aloft brings a gradual warming trend for Tuesday into Thanksgiving (Thursday), compressing the marine layer and raising temperatures by a few degrees. The warmest spots of the inland valleys (think the Morgan Hill-Gilroy region and the southern Salinas Valley) might touch the lower 70s on Thanksgiving day itself.

Towards the end of the week, a pattern change will occur as the ridge over the western United States breaks down, and one amplifies upstream across the Gulf of Alaska. As a result, cold Arctic air descends into the Mountain West and Central Plains states. Although there is still a chance for more significant rainfall, ensemble model cluster analysis continues to lean towards a drier solution for our region, as the trough axis develops further to the east and potentially gives us a solution closer to an inside slider than a big rainmaker. If this were the case, the main threat would be gusty offshore winds at and beyond the end of the 7-day forecast. As always, follow future forecast updates as a slight change in the track of the system could result in very different outcomes locally and, for those planning some Thanksgiving holiday travel, across the nation.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

A mix bag of LIFR to MVFR conditions across much of the region this morning before conditions return to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Expecting weak onshore flow to develop by this afternoon becoming light and variable into Monday morning. Moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings to develop around the Monterey Bay terminals late this evening and Bay Area terminals early Monday morning. Greater confidence for the North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals to see LIFR/IFR conditions Monday morning before conditions return to VFR by Monday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR currently, expected to return to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Onshore winds increase slightly during the afternoon before diminishing early Monday morning. Moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings to return early Monday morning before clearing by late morning or early afternoon. Onshore winds increase once again Monday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to return late this morning and prevail through this evening before MVFR ceilings return. Ceilings and/or visibilities lower to LIFR/IFR early Monday morning with winds becoming light and variable.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

Moderate seas will persist through Sunday night with hazardous marine conditions. Seas then gradually ease through the middle of the week with gentle to moderate northerly breezes. Winds begin to increase along with building seas by the end of the week into next weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.