textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

- Below normal temperatures through the weekend, gradual warming and drying trend kicks off Monday through Thursday

- Light rain showers from remnant tropical moisture possible Tuesday through Friday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (Tonight through Monday)

Satellite shows a mix of patchy coastal low clouds and jet stream cirrus clouds otherwise it's clear. Large scale mid to upper level low pressure remains over the West Coast with one more smaller scale 500 mb short wave trough ~ 400 miles west-southwest of Monterey that'll pass by to our east on Sunday. In the wake of this short wave trough, thermal and height ridging will steadily redevelop and with the Sep sun angle it'll result in a warming trend beginning Monday Labor Day.

Reminder: A Beach Hazards Statement continues from the coastal North Bay to the Big Sur coast through Monday evening.

Also, minor coastal flooding is likely within a small window of time of about 1 hour nearest high tide Sunday (Monday and Tuesday as well) for bayshore locations of Marin County. Impacts will include minor flooding of the lowest lying areas directly along the shoreline. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 0.6 ft to 0.7 ft above normal (6.6 ft MLLW) at 7:53 PM 9/6. At this time we are messaging it here (and will include messaging in social media) vs issuing a coastal flood advisory for Sunday.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

As mentioned a warming trend will begin Labor Day and this will continue Tuesday and peak Wednesday and Thursday. Minor to a few areas of moderate HeatRisk will return mainly Wednesday and Thursday. Then late in the week temperatures will trend cooler.

Global models continue to show redevelopment of 500 mb troughing over the eastern Pacific during the upcoming week. 00z guidance continues to show retrogression (westward motion) of the upper level trough which will help steer residual tropical moisture to our west. Potential for rain this upcoming week has trended even drier.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Generally VFR conditions with patches of stratus developing at the coast and along favored ridgelines through the night. Lower confidence in the model output that puts stratus development at the Monterey Bay, and to a lesser extent the North Bay valleys, through the night. Stratus should mix out through Sunday morning with breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon and evening hours.

Vicinity of SFO... Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period, with some MVFR clouds possible early Sunday morning. Gentle northwest winds will continue through the night before moderate westerly winds with strong gusts resume Sunday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR at present. Model output continues to show the possibility of stratus development across the region but it hasn't been observed as of yet and the model output is overdoing the stratus extent offshore. Thus, have elected to leave out mention of ceilings through the night. Light winds continue through the overnight period with a gentle to moderate northwest breeze developing Sunday afternoon and evening. Low confidence in some stratus developing Sunday night into Monday morning, particularly at MRY.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 940 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly to northwesterly breezes continue through the beginning of next week. Diurnal moderate to strong breezes are expected across the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays each afternoon and evening into the beginning of next week. Fresh to strong gusts become more widespread early next week before winds decrease by midweek. Long period southerly swell will continue to impact the coastal waters through much of the upcoming week.

BEACHES

Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day as the swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast. Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.