textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1258 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

- Breezy and gusty winds return Friday into the weekend

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend

- Elevated fire weather conditions Friday through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1258 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026 (This evening through Friday)

Clear skies and warm temperatures have set up across the region as mild ridging comes over the state. High temperatures today and Friday range from the upper 70s to the middle 80s across the inland valleys, perhaps reaching the upper 80s in the warmest spots, the upper 60s to the upper 70s along the Bays, and the upper 50s to middle 60s along the Pacific coast. Some breezy northwest winds will develop at the coast, along ridgelines, and through gaps and passes with gusts up to around 25 mph, but this will be relatively mild compared to the forecast for the next few days.

Friday will mark the start of a developing inside slider as an upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and starts to sharpen the pressure gradient across northern California. Northwest winds will strengthen across the region leading to gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph along the coast, across the ridgelines, and through favored gaps and passes including the northern Salinas Valley; the rest of the forecast area should expect to see gusts reaching 25 to 35 mph. While favored coastal locations and ridgelines may reach Wind Advisory criteria (gusts of 45 mph or above), I'm not seeing gusts these strong over a wide enough region to issue one at this time. Still, these strong winds could still loosen branches and lead to difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles and isolated power outages, especially when combined with hazardous wind-driven waves and blowing sand at the beach and elevated fire danger across the interior. These winds will contribute to hazardous beach conditions, notably large wind-driven waves and blowing sand. A Beach Hazards Statement has just been issued from Friday through Monday due to these risks. See the BEACHES and FIRE WEATHER sections for more details.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1258 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

The inside slider begins in earnest over the weekend as the upper level trough stalls out over eastern Washington on Saturday before dipping into the Great Basin on Sunday. This turns the upper level flow from a more zonal (west to east) pattern into a more meridional (north to south) pattern, and although the upper level flow remains just to the west of due north, it will be enough to cause the winds to turn more to the north and for humidities to dip, especially in the interior regions where daytime relative humidity values from 10 to 25% are possible on Sunday.

The track of the low will also maintain the tight pressure gradient over central California and maintain strong gusts over the region. In addition, there is the potential for the mixing down of stronger gusts across the coastal regions over the weekend as a coastal jet sets up. The strongest gusts are expected to begin Saturday through Monday morning, with gusts of 45 to 55 mph possible at the coast, along the interior ridgelines of the North and East Bay, and through the northern Salinas Valley and Altamont Pass; these strong gusts could result in isolated downed trees. Can't rule out a Wind Advisory for the coastal regions and the adjacent mountains for the weekend. By Monday afternoon, the upper level low will weaken and pull away into the northern Rockies, allowing the pressure gradient to slacken and a developing upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific to begin influencing the weather pattern.

Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will back into the 70s to lower 80s in the inland valleys before the warming trend resumes early next week. With California sitting between the building ridge and the lingering trough, high temperatures across the region are still a little uncertain. After collaboration with our neighbors and national centers, the raw NBM output, which continues to run a little warm, was tamped down by as much as 3 to 5 degrees, especially along the coastal regions. The general pattern will be for highs in the 80s to the lower 90s inland, the middle 70s to the middle 80s near the bays, and the 60s to lower 70s along the Pacific coast. Towards and after the end of the 7-day outlook, the uncertainty ramps up as the interaction between the ridge over the Pacific and any troughing over the Rockies becomes more variable within the ensemble space. As noted yesterday around this time, the inland valleys could see highs varying by around 5 or 10 degrees around the current forecasts, while coastal and bayshore regions could see drastically different changes in the outlook, especially if a marine layer influence returns to more of the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 429 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

High confidence VFR for terminals other than KHAF and Monterey Bay terminals. Gusty onshore flow will ease later tonight, then begin to increase later Friday morning through Friday evening with 30kt gusts expected.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence VFR through the forecast period with gusty onshore flow easing later tonight then increasing again by late Friday morning through Friday evening with gusts up to 30kts at times.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to develop later this evening with potential for KMRY dropping into LIFR overnight into early Friday morning. Gusty onshore flow will ease later this evening and increase again Friday afternoon, with VFR expected for the remainder of the TAF period once stratus cigs lift late Friday morning.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

A fresh to near gale-force northwesterly breeze will prevail over the waters through the weekend. Gale-force gusts will become more widespread Friday morning and continue to gain strength over the weekend. Locally stronger gusts will be possible along some of the coastal jets where occasional storm-force gusts will be possible. The strong winds will drive seas between 12 to 19 feet. Winds peak on Sunday and diminish steadily into the next work week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

Fire weather concerns increase in the late week. Gusty offshore winds build on Friday and strengthen through the weekend with peak gusts above 30 mph for most areas and around 40 to 50 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the interior regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow continues into the work week.

BEACHES

Issued at 250 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast from 3 PM Friday through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean.

RGass

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday afternoon through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-509-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.