textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1052 PM PST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Strong and damaging winds continue overnight through Thursday evening.

- A flood watch remains in effect through Friday evening across the region. The main threat is flash flooding and landslides from high rain rates.

- Slight chances for severe thunderstorms begin this evening and continue through Thursday evening. Severe threats include damaging wind gusts and possible tornadoes.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions continue through Friday across the Pacific coast and adjacent beaches.

- Cold temperatures settle in this weekend after the storms break

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1052 PM PST Wed Dec 24 2025 (Tonight through Friday)

Don't let your guard down, the line of showers and thunderstorms with strong winds that swept through our area earlier this (Wednesday) evening was only a precursor to what is expected to be the most impactful line of storms yet, that is currently about to enter our outer marine zones about 100mi offshore. Impacts for the next line are expected to be felt by Midnight PST, with another round of strong wind, periods of heavy rain with the potential of low top supercells producing waterspouts that could move onshore as short-lived tornadoes or straight line winds up to 80 MPH or higher. The High Wind Warning remains in place until 10 AM PST Thursday (Christmas) morning and may be extended. Our Flood Watch remains in place until Friday night at 10 PM PST. The SPC continues to have our entire Pacific Coast line in a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms through early Friday morning at 4 AM. That means, the line off showers and thunderstorms progged to move onshore as early as late afternoon Thursday into the evening hours may be just as impactful as the one currently on our door step. That means all hazards mentioned above are in play through at least tomorrow night, along with the dangerous beach hazards and gale to near storm force winds over both our coastal and outer waters. If traveling Christmas day or night, expect extensive travel delays, along with power outages and urban/nuisance flooding.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1052 PM PST Wed Dec 24 2025 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

*Long term discussion remains unchanged from Wednesday afternoon update*

Starting in the early morning Friday, winds and shower activity will gradually decrease as the low pressure system offshore opens up into a trough and moves into northern Oregon. The associated surface trough axis will move across the Bay Area Friday evening. This will finally flip the winds back to northerly, bringing drier, cooler weather for the weekend. The 1000-500 mb thickness actually increases this weekend, with the cooling coming mainly from enhanced radiation during in the cloudless nights. Sunday through Tuesday look particularly calm, clear and cool as a 500 mb ridge sets in. The next troughing pattern looks probable on the 1st or 2nd, just in time for King Tides. There's no strong signal for major impacts yet, but the CW3E ECCC AR Activity tool shows higher than normal chances for atmospheric rivers through the first half of January.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 916 PM PST Wed Dec 24 2025

Radar and satellite imagery show showers across the forecast area including recent isolated thunderstorms. A strengthening low will approach far northern California and the Pacific Northwest tonight through Christmas Day/Night. Southerly winds will re-intensify to similar speeds last night. Expect low level wind shear through the evening and overnight, winds easing later Christmas Day. The frontal system will result in showers, occasionally heavy, including a chance of thunderstorms across the area tonight through Christmas Day/Night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR with showers and a chance of a thunderstorm tonight and Christmas Day. Southeasterly wind continuing ahead of the next strong frontal system arriving later tonight and early Christmas Day. Southeasterly wind increasing upwards to around 35 knots continuing to 20z Christmas Day, easing later in the day.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR with showers and a chance of a thunderstorms tonight and Christmas Day. Southeasterly winds ahead of the next strong frontal system arriving later tonight and early Christmas Day; gusts upwards 30-35 knots, easing later in the day.

..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY

Southeast breezes across the coastal waters will re-intensify to sustained gales from the south by midnight. These dangerous winds will be accompanied by a chance for thunderstorms and possible waterspouts through the early morning hours Thursday. Seas will rebuild to very rough from the choppy wind waves. These hazardous seas will linger through Friday, reinforced by a moderate westerly swell. If your vessel is not able to handle these conditions return to port or seek protected waters as soon as possible.

BEACHES

Issued at 325 PM PST Wed Dec 24 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for the coast through 4AM Friday. The main concerns include:blowing and drifting sand and wind waves up to 20 ft. The drifting sand and increased sea spray will also result in poor visibilities, affecting water rescues. Increased coastal erosion will be possible as well.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for CAZ006-502>506-508>510- 512>518-528>530.

Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

High Wind Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ006-503-505- 509-517-528>530.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ502-504-506-508- 510-512>516-518.

PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Storm Warning until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.