textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Minor to moderate coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore and Pacific Coast locations through the weekend

- Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through the extended forecast

- Potential for light rain Saturday and again next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1048 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026 (Tonight through Sunday)

Lots of talk about Saturday's sensible weather the last few days and it's been a roller coaster. A few days ago it looked somewhat wet for the Central Coast Saturday afternoon/evening. Then those chances eased and actually shifted northward to the Bay Area/N Bay. The latest forecast has actually eased precip chances Saturday afternoon/evening everywhere in the CWA. In other words, much more optimistic if you have any outdoor plans Saturday afternoon/evening. Let's get into the details: the main weather players for the short term continue to be an upper low drifting slowly southward near the PacNW, an associated upper level trough south of the low inch its way toward the West Coast, and a moisture surge over the EPac (better surge heading into SoCal). Over the next 12-24 hours, the upstream upper low drifts farther south as the upper trough moves eastward and ultimately inland in CA. At the surface, a weak offshore cold front will follow the upper trough and move NW to SE Saturday afternoon/evening through the region. For the Central Coast, they'll be on the northern fringe of the SoCal surge so a few showers are possible during the day across the far interior. Bay Area and North Bay start the day dry and remain dry well into the afternoon and early evening. There after, light rain chances increase over the North Bay spreading southward Saturday night into Sunday. As the front moves inland it begins to fade and so do the precip chances. A few showers linger early Sunday, but Sunday afternoon looks much drier. All in all, outdoor Halloween activities look promising with only a few showers moving into the North Bay. Better precip chances arrive Saturday night. Outside of precip chances, temperatures this weekend look seasonably cold with highs mainly in the 60s.

This is still valid - A combination of high astronomical tides and surge from thermal expansion and low pressure effects brings the risk of minor coastal flooding along the Bayshore at the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays, and the Pacific coast, at high tide today. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 3:44 PM, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 3:59 PM Sunday, including around 1.5 ft of surge residual." The Coastal Flood Advisory drops off after high tide on Saturday for the Pacific Coast but remains in effect through Sunday for bayshore locations along the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1048 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)

Weak upper level ridging Sunday night into Monday with dry weather and slightly warmer temperatures. There after the forecast looks unsettled with rain chances returning. The upper ridge moves inland as another upper low approaches from the west. Next round of rain returns Monday night into Tuesday and lingers into Wednesday. By no means any big or notable storms, but precip chances nonetheless through mid week. Dry weather and warmer weather returns Friday and into next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Currently VFR with high clouds streaming into the Bay Area and low clouds across the Central Coast. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the 24 hour TAF period. Beyond that, rain shower chances increase with the best chances between 06Z and 12Z. Ceilings and visibilities will briefly lower if a rain shower passes directly over a terminal.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR and westerly flow prevailing through the TAF period, the exception is towards the end of the TAF period when rain shower chances increase. If a rain shower passes directly over the terminal, ceiling and visibility may briefly lower below VFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY and VFR with easterly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period; however, low-end VFR ceilings will likely prevail through the TAF period.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 913 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Gentle to fresh northerly breezes prevail over the coastal waters as a weak cold front approaches from the north. These conditions will persist with moderate seas into early next week. Mid-week, wind driven seas build to rough across the outer waters. A long period southwesterly swell persists through the weekend and combines with a long period northwest swell early next week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ505-509.

PZ...None.