textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Slightly warmer and dry weather through the midweek

- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday

- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

- Unsettled weather returns by late week and into the upcoming weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1145 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday)

Dry weather continues over our forecast area due to a nearly stationary long wave ridge centered over the southwestern states. Cirrus clouds with the southern extent of the polar jet stream are moving over the North Bay while to the south it is clear. Nocturnal radiative cooling, most pronounced south of the cirrus clouds, is allowing continental air to cool (higher pressure), setting up a light land breeze in contrast to the much of above Nov normal sea surface temps in the 60s as much as +10F to +11F above Nov normal (air in contact with the warmer sea surface temps equals lower pressure). Surface winds flow from high pressure to low pressure, which is keeping the warm maritime influence held to the coastline or even nudged slightly offshore. Sea surface temps as warm as they are could easily keep coastal night-time/morning minimum temperature much warmer (e.g. San Francisco Aug 2015 set about a 1/2 month of record high min temps, recall El Nino of 2015-2016), but remarkably at this time so far this has not been the case because of continental influence. November (vs August) brings occasional mid-latitude weather influences, much lower sun angle, longer night time cooling hours.

Cooling tonight through daybreak Monday will produce additional low clouds and patches of fog. Because of the much above normal sea surface temperatures, water vapor availability is much more robust. Daytime sea breezes temporarily usher higher water vapor and hazy conditions inland, then when the winds turn neutral to a light land breeze, cooling is introduced (cooling described above) and it is easy to reach saturation. Patchy dense fog may redevelop tonight and Monday morning. Will monitor satellite and observations and issue a dense fog advisory if needed.

Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday will continue slightly above normal with highs in the upper 60s at the coastline to the 70s and lower 80s inland. Night-time lows will be in the 40s and 50s. A very weak 500 mb trough in the flow will pass by this time tomorrow night otherwise high pressure will prevail through early week.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1145 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

An increase in northern hemispheric long wave troughs is occurring and will continue to hold during this time-frame. One long wave trough will strengthen over the northeastern Pacific and another long wave trough will strengthen downstream over the eastern states. In the 120 hour time-frame, out to Friday, the leading edge of strong polar jet stream winds will dig southward forming a closed 500 mb low ~ 300-400 miles to our west-southwest Thursday. Steering winds will continue to drive the newly formed closed 500 mb low toward southern California. This may leave a cold frontal passage with a chance of rain for our forecast area on Friday, though this is a low confidence forecast since model output is varying on rain amounts. Friday is five days out which is about the max we can rely on for global model output in the complex seasonal transition period of fall-winter. Dynamic strengthening is forecast upstream and downstream, both within the long wave trough over the east and to our west, but also with the ridge in between, nudged slightly forward during this time. If the upstream long wave trough is able to slowly advance eastward, this should increase the chance of rain here, possibly to a greater chance Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 929 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Currently MVFR-VFR with stratus off the coast and high clouds streaming in from the southwest. Moderate confidence on a persistence forecast for tonight; bayshore and coastal terminal ceilings will likely be on the IFR/MVFR cusp with fog more likely for interior terminals. Diurnal winds will prevail.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate (60%) confidence on a ceiling on the cusp of IFR/MVFR developing at the terminal tonight. Similar to last night, the terminal will likely be on the edge of it with worse conditions to the east and south. The most probable time within the possible window of 08Z to 18Z is 12Z to 16Z. Diurnal winds will prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...Moderate confidence on clouds below FL070 developing as soon as 08Z, conditions beginning to improve by 14Z, and clearing by 19Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR with northeasterly flow at SNS. A brief IFR ceiling was observed at MRY until winds backed to become easterly; thus, expect IFR ceilings in the vicinity of the terminals. There is a similar signal as to what happened last night with IFR ceilings possible now, mixing out in the middle, and then returning late tonight with the best chances between 11Z and 15Z. Diurnal winds will prevail.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 929 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Rough to very rough seas will create hazardous conditions for small craft across the inner waters, outer waters, and Monterey Bay through Monday. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes will prevail through Tuesday, with bays remaining more sheltered. Seas begin to subside Tuesday and winds will back through the day Wednesday to become southerly.

BEACHES

Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Final day of the weekend and beach weather will be rather nice. However, the surf zone won't be nice. In case you missed it, a Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show the surf zone remains energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As such, large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at favored break point. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave activity early next week, but longer range forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast late next week.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.