textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 123 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Above normal temperatures, though with a slight cooling through the weekend.

- Hazardous beach conditions from swells through Saturday evening at Pacific Coast beaches.

- 10% (San Jose) to 40% (northern Sonoma county) chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday afternoon and evening. Best rain chances come Wednesday (50%).

SHORT TERM

Issued at 123 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 (This evening through Friday)

h5 analysis shows an upper trough in the process of getting shed from the main upper low south of the Aleutians. This feature will become cut-off from the main upper flow and drift toward the Baja peninsula, remaining off shore of California. It has been another very mild and sunny early February day. The ridge has started to push southeast, though the thermal ridge is still close enough to Monterey and San Benito counties that Salinas and Monterey have gotten close to record highs for the day, while locations up around the Bay are a couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday. As the upper low pushes toward the CA coast tonight, we'll continue to see the cirrus shield over southern Cal push north. As the upper low gets closer, we'll add some mid level clouds to the mix as well through the night. The main impact from the clouds is we're anticipating much less fog in the valleys than we have seen the past few nights, though if we end up with less cloud cover than anticipated, we still have the same general weather pattern we've had for the past several nights that has supported the valley fog, so less cloud cover will result in more fog. During the day on Friday, as the upper low gets to the west of LA, southeasterly flow across southern Cal will push slightly higher low level moisture north. The NBM continues to show some 15ish PoPs later on Friday in the higher terrain around Big Sur, though forecast soundings are stratus/drizzle soundings with a shallow (less than 1k feet) near-surface moisture layer, so we continue to keep the MTR area dry through Friday.

LONG TERM

Issued at 123 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

Biggest thing about the long term is a gradual change in the large-scale pattern as persistent ridging gets replaced by a long wave trough over the western CONUS next week. The first bit of moisture with this pattern change shows up Sunday evening into Monday, though this moisture feed will be directed toward northern Cal and Oregon. Precipitation chances continue to trend later on Sunday night, with the best chances coming after sunset on Sunday, with the highest chances (40%) in the north end of Sonoma county. As this moisture feed pushes south, so we see dwindling precipitation chances through the day on Monday in the Bay area. The bigger issue to watch with this increase in moisture would be for cloud/stratus potential to start next week.

Better precipitation chances show up Tuesday night into Wednesday (50% along the coast). This will be driven by a positively tilted h5 trough moving south across CA and the eastern Pac. EPS precipitation Matrix at SFO shows about 60% of its members showing measurable precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday, though most members that show QPF have it under 0.25", so we're not looking at a high impact rain event, though something that may send you reaching for the windshield wipers. The bigger impact from this trough will be the cooling of the temperatures as we see our highs in the 60s and 70s we've enjoyed the past few days get replaced by a more typical 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 939 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

Currently most terminals VRF with some skies SKC and a few seeing FEW200 build in from off the coast. Some FG/HZ remains trapped in a few East Bay valleys (KLVK seeing MVFR conditions), and will take another couple hours to lift and scatter out (satellite trends do show gradual improvement). Winds remain AOB 10kts and generally off shore with some local influences. Gradients will weaken today, letting diurnal influences creep in for some sites (with winds remains AOB 10kts). Some mid/high level moisture will move in around/after 03Z from the west. This should curb chances for FG/HZ formation tonight/early Fri morning, however non-zero chances for KSTS exist. Lower cigs arrive near the end of the period.

Vicinity of SFO...Light E/NE winds will become NW this afternoon. Skies generally SKC, with SCT-BKN at 15kft or above morning in early Friday morning. This should curb chances for HZ forming Friday morning. Cigs will lower near 18Z Fri, potentially seeing MVFR/IFR impacts at times from 18Z through the end of the period. Could see some sprinkles during this time.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Mostly VFR conditions through the period. Mid to high level clouds will move in early Friday morning. Light southeast winds tonight through Friday morning.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light south and east winds today will shift to northwest by Friday. Seas will remain slight to moderate today then rapidly build into rough seas tonight to Saturday. Winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front from the Pacific Northwest.

BEACHES

Issued at 918 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from midnight tonight to 4 AM PST Friday at all Pacific Coast beaches, then upgrading to a High Surf Advisory through 9 PM on Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet, increasing to 17 to 22 feet on Friday.

Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!

CLIMATE

Issued at 1151 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for February 5th.

Location Feb 5th Record High

Santa Rosa 80 in 2011 San Rafael 79 in 2011 Kentfield 78 in 2011 Napa 79 in 2011 Richmond 81 in 2018 Livermore 78 in 2018 San Francisco 77 in 2018 SFO Airport 73 in 2011 Redwood City 77 in 2018 Half Moon Bay 76 in 2018 Oakland Museum 77 in 2011 San Jose 79 in 2018 Salinas Airport 80 in 2018

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.

High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.