textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday

- Rain returns to the region Friday into the early part of next week

- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

- Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions this weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 (This evening through Thursday night)

The warmest day of the week is still on track for this afternoon with a slight cool down on Thursday as the mid/upper level trough deepens off of the West Coast. The deepening of the trough will push the high pressure, which resulted in several days of above normal temperatures, eastward across the Desert Southwest. Thus, temperatures cool some 3-8 deg F on Thursday compared to this afternoon's maximum temperatures. In the next 24-36 hours, a cut-off low within the larger broad troughing off of the West Coast will develop at move toward Southern California and Baja California. Thus, the Bay Area and north Central Coast will see little if any impacts from this southward tracking low. Prefrontal rain is forecast to return to return in the coastal ranges late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday)

The first cold front is forecast to move into the North Bay by mid- to-late Friday morning and then push southward across the Bay Area and Central Coast in the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the boundary and become out of the southwest just ahead of the cold front. Overall, wind speeds have trended downward with the latest set of guidance and as still forecast to be strongest across the Pacific. There remains generally a 10%-15% chance of thunderstorms across the North Bay and Bay Area on Friday associated with the destabilization of the atmosphere. Rain totals from this system are expected to be around 0.5-1.25" for the North Bay (highest in the coastal ranges), 0.5-1.00" for the San Francisco Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big Sur coast, and 0.10-0.40" for the inland portions of Monterey and San Benito Counties as well as the typical rain shadowed valleys.

On Saturday, mostly dry conditions are forecast over the region aside from some post frontal rain showers into Friday night into Saturday morning. However, temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs only reaching into the 60s across most low-lying areas and upper 50s in the higher elevations (upper 40s in the peaks). Rainfall from this system is forecast to be mostly beneficial. However, roadways will be slick and minor nuisance flooding in the typical poorly drained areas. While the wind speeds have trended lower, keep up with the latest forecast information as things have the potential to change.

Another cold front is on tap to impact the region Sunday into Monday with another one in the middle of the upcoming week. None of these systems are forecast to stall over any one given region, reducing the threat of widespread flooding concerns. Be sure to check back for the latest forecast information as we head into an unsettled weather pattern.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1003 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions and diurnal winds should prevail today. Moderate confidence IFR (potentially becoming LIFR) conditions return to Half Moon Bay, Santa Rosa, and Oakland. Low to Moderate confidence of MVFR returning across the bay area, with low confidence (under 30%) in IFR or worse. Cloud cover is likely to increase after 09-12Z with the potential for reductions in visibility if fog is able to develop. Fog chances are highest across the North Bay Valleys but may impact airports along the SF Bay shoreline. Conditions are expected to worsen through Thursday ahead of a low pressure system arriving on Friday.

Vicinity of SFO...Fog persists along the west San Francisco Bay shoreline, but should clear from radiation before 20z. VFR and diurnal winds to prevail afterward. MVFR conditions come in tonight; IFR is possible tonight, but light offshore flow may be enough to keep it away.

SFO Bridge Approach...Some fog/low lying clouds are hanging on between San Jose and SFO. These should clear out from radiation before 20z. Afterwards, VFR and diurnal winds for the rest of the day with the potential for MVFR conditions overnight.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR-LIFR conditions return overnight as low cloud cover returns ahead of an incoming low pressure system. Current thinking is that CIGs will be on the IFR-LIFR border for MRY/SNS with clearing to occur late tomorrow morning. Otherwise, winds remain light and onshore during the day before becoming light, offshore overnight. Drainage winds are likely to develop at SNS again tomorrow morning with SE winds peaking around 15 knots.

MARINE

(Today through Monday) Issued at 902 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Conditions will steadily deteriorate Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches the coast bringing strong SW winds and moderate rain. Gale force winds are likely during the day on Friday with a low potential for short lived storm force gusts as the front moves through. By Saturday, high seas will move in from a hurricane force low moving through the NE Pacific. Significant wave heights will reach between 25 to 30 feet on Saturday. Small crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these conditions.

BEACHES

Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker waves through Friday, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 30 feet. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

RGass

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.