textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1201 AM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Minor coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore and Pacific Coast locations through the week

- Cool conditions through the week

- Rain chances late week into the upcoming weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026 (Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery shows mostly clear conditions with patches of stratus developing on the west side of the San Mateo Peninsula, the Berkeley-San Leandro Hills, and the Chittenden Pass between Watsonville and Hollister. High resolution model output depicts more widespread stratus coverage through the morning, but confidence is limited as the model output is a lot more aggressive in terms of stratus coverage than the observations suggest. In any case, stratus should dissipate through the morning and afternoon hours with generally clear skies into the evening.

Cooler conditions are in store for today as the shortwave ridge moves off to the east and allows a cut-off low to move into the Pacific Northwest. This low is bringing wet weather into the Pacific Northwest and the North Coast, but down in the Bay Area the main impacts will be cooler temperatures with highs reaching the middle 60s to lower 70s in the inland valleys and close to the Bays, up to the middle 70s in the warmest spots of southern Monterey County, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Onshore winds will pick up this afternoon and evening with gusts to 25 mph along the coast, through favored gaps and passes, and at the ridgelines. Expect gusts in these areas to remain elevated through the night as the passing low creates an elevated pressure gradient.

A combination of high astronomical tides and surge from thermal expansion effects brings the risk of minor coastal flooding along the Bayshore at the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays, and the Pacific coast, at high tide today. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 11:39 AM Monday 10/26, including around 1.0 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

Troughing will continue to impact the region through the seven day outlook. By Tuesday, a shortwave trough currently over southeastern Alaska will dig down and bring more troughing influence over the region, while a second cut-off low forms over western Canada and migrates southward through Wednesday to reinforce the troughing pattern. Over the same timeframe, a low pressure system over the central Pacific migrates eastwards and merges with the trough over the Pacific Northwest, furthering the influence of the trough across the state. The net result will be a continued gradual cooling trend across the region with highs dipping into the middle 50s to middle 60s across the lower elevations by the latter part of the week.

Ensemble model cluster analysis is beginning to agree on some form of troughing pattern persisting into the upcoming weekend with rain chances entering the picture Friday night. Confidence in rainfall in the North Bay for Halloween has decreased, but remains low to moderate south of the Golden Gate and might slightly higher in the Central Coast, although it looks like the current forecast favors most of the moisture coming into Southern California. This makes for a difficult forecast situation, as the fringes of a moisture plume can make for some highly defined gradients where shifts of the forecast track on the order of 10 miles can significantly impact the final outcome. To give one example of the kind of variability we are talking about here, let's look at the current rainfall forecasts for the Monterey Airport. NBM guidance suggests that for the 48hour period beginning 5 AM PDT Saturday the 31st and ending 4 AM PST Monday the 2nd (note the time change, as this period includes the "fall back" from Daylight Savings Time), there is a 50% probability that the rainfall total falls between 0.0 and 0.6 inches, and an 80% probability that the total falls between 0.0 and 1.6 inches. It's too early to say at this point whether people's Halloween plans will need to take rain into account, so keep checking back for forecast updates. If that wasn't enough, ensemble model output and long range outlooks suggest that an active pattern could remain in store for the first week of November...

Coastal flooding concerns continue across Bayshore locations within the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays and the Pacific coastal regions through Friday. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft MLLW) at 12:15 PM Tuesday 10/27, 1.9 ft above normal (7.7 ft MLLW) at 12:56 PM Wednesday 10/28, 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 01:43 PM Thursday 10/29, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 2:39 PM on Friday 10/30, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 3:44 PM on Saturday 10/31, including around 1.0 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A mix of MVFR to IFR ceilings are present at a few airports. Ceilings are expected to mix out post sunrise with VFR prevailing through the day. As a cold front pushes through the Pacific Northwest, strong onshore winds develop this afternoon into the evening. Most terminals may experience occasional gusts around 10-15 kt. Moderate confidence for more frequent gusts at STS, SFO, HAF, and MRY. Currently not expecting a robust development of impactful low clouds later this evening as we transition into a zonal flow aloft. Onshore winds persist through the overnight hours.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with a few to scattered MVFR cloud decks likely. Wind direction is unfavorable for impactful ceilings to develop directly over SFO and OAK in the next few hours. Mostly clear skies through the afternoon with strong gusts possible at SFO. Onshore winds gradually ease post-sunset.

SFO Bridge Approach...MVFR ceilings on the eastern portion of the approach may impact visuals. VFR conditions expected post-sunrise as clouds scatter out. Otherwise, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings persist at SNS through the morning. Low confidence on MVFR ceilings at MRY this morning. VFR prevails through the remainder of the TAF period with gusty onshore winds this afternoon.

MARINE

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 455 AM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

North to northwesterly gentle breezes become moderate to fresh this afternoon through the majority of the week. Strong gusts develop this afternoon across the southern coastal waters near Point Sur and Monterey Bay. These strong gusts gradually spread across the northern coastal waters near Point Reyes by Tuesday. Isolated near gale force gusts are likely within the coastal jet regions of Point Sur and Point Reyes. In response, moderate seas briefly build to rough around 8 to 10 ft across the outer waters Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Moderate wind driven seas prevail Thursday into the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ505-509.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.