textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 136 PM PST Mon Jan 26 2026

- Clear skies and weak offshore winds persist through Tuesday

- Moist, southerly flow increases Tuesday night ahead of slight rain chances North Bay and SF. Amounts very light b/w 0.01" and 0.2".

- Drying out Wednesday morning and remaining so through the rest of the week. Next chance of rain will be Sunday, but confidence is low at this point.

UPDATE

Issued at 855 PM PST Mon Jan 26 2026

Satellite imagery shows some high level clouds streaming into the Bay Area and Central Coast through the night. The main topic of the short term forecast continues to revolve around the light rain expected to come into the region late on Tuesday. High resolution model output is now showing a better consensus for a band of light rain to come through the North Bay and parts of the SF Bay Area for the later part of Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours, while isolated showers continue into Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts will remain light, with the high resolution guidance generally suggesting that wetting rains (rain totals above 0.1") generally remain confined to the North Bay, with the Sonoma coastal ranges and the Mayacamas seeing rain totals around the 0.25"-0.5" range. Favored locations in both mountain ranges could see rainfall totals over half an inch if the ingredients align for training showers or upslope development. There is some interesting variation in the rain totals in the northern parts of the SF Bay Area, and given that we are already on the fringes of the moisture plume, that isn't surprising. The HRRR provides something akin to a reasonable worst case scenario where parts of the Berkeley Hills, the city of San Francisco, and the San Mateo coastal ranges might edge over the 0.1" mark in the rainfall totals, with measurable precipitation coming as far south as the mountains of western Santa Cruz County. By contrast, the experimental RRFS model keeps the Bay Area rainfall totals to a few hundredths of an inch if that. In any case, impacts are expected to remain rather minimal, beginning and ending with wet roadways across the region.

In the longer term, we are monitoring the potential for coastal flooding based off elevated high tides over the next few days. Although this is a low confidence prediction, the bayside shoreline of Marin County could start to get coastal flood impacts on Wednesday, with more widespread flooding across the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bay coastlines Friday into Sunday. Also in the marine environment, we are monitoring high swell coming in late Wednesday into Thursday which could lead to breaking waves up to 20 feet, and an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. The night shift will take a closer look at these incoming conditions and issue any necessary products should the need arise.

DialH

SHORT TERM

Issued at 136 PM PST Mon Jan 26 2026 (This evening through Tuesday)

Mostly clear skies across the board today under a building ridge of high pressure. Many locations running about 4-6 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, largely in part to the lack of cloud cover today. Winds remain light and variable with the exception of breezy offshore winds in the vicinity of the Delta. A weakening shortwave trough approaches the West Coast late Tuesday, bringing increased cloudiness ahead of rain chances overnight.

LONG TERM

Issued at 136 PM PST Mon Jan 26 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Rain chances overnight Tuesday do exist, but very limited on who will actually get measurable precip. With the system weakening and lifting toward the NE, most rain will likely only fall in the North Bay (0.05" to 0.25"), with lighter or even trace amounts across the SF Peninsula and immediate SF Bay region. Interior East Bay, South Bay, and areas south of Watsonville will likely only see drizzle at best. This all comes to an end by the middle of Wednesday morning, then ridging builds back in aloft promoting dry weather and temps near to slightly above average. The next mention of rain looks to be around the Sunday timeframe, but uncertainty is still high at this point.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 931 PM PST Mon Jan 26 2026

No notable changes in the near term through the early morning rush. Generally VFR with a mix of MVFR for hz/br at KLVK/KAPC and IFR at KSTS. MVFR to IFR develop late tomorrow with approaching front,lowering cigs, and possible rain.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light winds with a stronger onshore push tomorrow afternoon. Light rain tomorrow night for a few hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Stronger drainage/SE winds at SNS Tuesday.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 855 PM PST Mon Jan 26 2026

Southerly flow will prevail over the coastal waters as a weak cold front approaches from the west through Tuesday. Winds will be moderate to breezy north of Point Reyes with locally hazardous conditions. Winds diminish on Wednesday and switch to northerly that night. Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday. Seas build rough to very rough Wednesday night. The passing cold front will bring light rain to the coastal waters early Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.