textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1119 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Fall weather continues today; warming trend and above normal temperatures starting mid to late week

- Coastal flooding during high tides through midweek

- Elevated fire weather conditions and offshore flow across the higher elevations peaking mid to late week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1119 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026 (Tonight through Wednesday)

Expect one more cooler taste of fall on Tuesday before a warming trend starts off Wednesday. Upper level troughing will gradually shift eastward Tuesday into Wednesday with upper level ridging building in Wednesday. The marine layer remains mixed out through the short term with clear skies expected across the majority of the area with only patchy clouds expected along the coast. Clear skies will lead to increased radiational cooling and see chillier mornings in the 40s to low 50s returning again Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Portions of the higher elevations will dip into the 30s but this will be more widespread on Tuesday than on Wednesday as a warming trend begins. Daytime highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s to mid 70s with further warming into the 70s to low 80s across the interior expected on Wednesday as the ridge rebuilds. Coastal temperatures stay fairly consistent in the upper 50s to 60s.

Worth noting is the potential for multiple rounds of offshore winds in the overnight to late morning hours starting tonight and continuing through the week. Offshore winds look to be the strongest across the Interior North Bay Mountains and along the Diablo Range in the East Bay and South Bay. The SFO-WMC gradient suggests rounds of overnight offshore winds Monday night and Tuesday night will be light to moderate with the gradient peaking around -3 to -4.5 mb. The gradient is expected to strengthen late week as additional rounds of offshore winds occur (see Long Term discussion). Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the higher elevations given the moderate pulses of offshore winds, dry conditions, and poor overnight recoveries.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1119 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

Temperatures continue to warm Thursday and Friday as upper level ridging builds. High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to low 90s with pockets of mid to upper 90s across the Santa Cruz Mountains and southern Santa Clara Valley. Patchy Moderate HeatRisk is expected on Thursday with more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across urban areas on Friday. Although not the hottest temperatures we've seen this summer, Moderate HeatRisk makes its return due to overnight lows creeping back into the 50s to low 60s. Not a fan of the heat? Good news, temperatures start to cool again Saturday and Sunday as upper level ridging is disrupted by a cut-off low to our south. This cut-off low will rejoin the jet stream, deepening upper level troughing over the West Coast, and bring cooler weather back to the region. High temperatures drop into the 80s across the interior on Saturday before more fall like weather in the 60s to 70s returns Sunday and Monday. Model guidance indicates there is some potential for light rain (few tenths of an inch) and strong onshore winds early next week as the trough moves through. This will bring a return of hazardous marine conditions and strong winds to mountain gaps and passes and the higher terrain.

Elevated fire weather concerns continue across the higher elevations through late this week as additional rounds of offshore flow are expected overnight through the late morning. These pulses of offshore winds look to strengthen overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The GFS shows an initial forecast for the SFO-WMC gradient to reach -9.6 mb late Thursday morning. Offshore flow is likely again Thursday night into Friday morning but it looks to be weaker than the previous night. If you are engaging in any activities involving fire, prevent any flames/sparks from escaping as the fuels are dry and conditions will be favorable for fire to spread.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 429 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR. Weak offshore flow and a dry airmass are yielding small pockets of stratus that have occasionally resulted in brief MVFR ceilings overnight but VFR will prevail through the forecast period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. No marine layer influence with weak offshore flow, will maintain VFR conditions through the forecast period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with weak offshore flow and little to no marine layer influence.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 429 AM PDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Gentle to fresh northerly breezes will continue through the remainder of the work week with an improving seas state today into Wednesday. Long period southerly swell will also continue through midweek with some gradual easing by the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 118 PM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

There will be a few bursts of offshore winds this week, generally during the overnight hours. The first burst looks to occur tonight, particularly highlight the interior North Bay Mountains, where we could see gusts range from 20-35 mph, perhaps even up to 40 mph for the exposed ridges and the higher elevations. After that, the next area of concern we are monitoring is Wednesday night into Thursday morning, where the pressure gradient should be a bit more tight due to upper level wind patterns. Majority of the area should see offshore flow, in the north to northeast component, with gusts closer to 25-35 mph, locally higher perhaps up to 45 mph for exposed ridges, gaps, and passes. Warm and dry weather will be on tap as well, which will lead to an elevated threat for the higher terrain areas. Another round of offshore winds is expected Thursday night into Friday, but appears to be weaker than the previous two.

BEACHES

Issued at 1031 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Compare to the last few days conditions along the coast are gradually improving as longer period swell trains are decreasing. However, buoy reports Monday morning continue to advertise moderate to longer period swells (albeit smaller heights) entering the coastal waters. As such, elevated surf zone conditions lingering. Additionally, moderate period west-northwest swell will arrive Monday afternoon lingering into Monday evening. As such, Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through this evening. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Never turn your back on the ocean!

MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ006- 508-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...None.