textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1243 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Hot inland temperatures continue Thursday

- Sharp cool-down this weekend and early next week

- Coastal flooding during high tides and large swell this weekend

- Light rain possible early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1243 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026 (This evening through Friday night)

A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM this evening for much of the interior Bay Area and Central Coast as 500 mb high pressure remains in place over the region. Temperatures across the interior will be in the some 10-20 degrees F above seasonal averages again this afternoon with cooler conditions near the coast given the shallow marine layer around 500 feet in depth.

Overnight temperatures will still remain warm in the higher terrain tonight with 60s to low 70s expected and generally in the 50s in the lower elevations. This is as a mid/upper level trough begins to develop off of the British Columbia coastline and allows for the marine layer to deepen.

Friday will be noticeable cooler as the aforementioned trough deepens along the West Coast bringing temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. Thus, expecting temperatures to cool into the low-to- upper 80s in the inland valleys and the warmest interior portions of the region to reach into the lower 90s. Breezier onshore winds are also expected on Friday afternoon and evening along the coast and wind-prone gaps, passes, and valleys. This will keep temperatures near the coast in the 60s to lower 70s.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for bayshore locations adjacent to the San Pablo Bay with up to 1.2 feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas during times of peak high tides. On Friday morning, the areas adjacent to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay are added to the advisory through at least 3 PM Tuesday.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1243 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday)

Additional cooling is expected by Saturday as a dry frontal boundary drops southward across the Bay Area and Central Coast and the mid/upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. Thus, temperatures will cool to below seasonal averages Saturday through early next week. Onshore winds will be a bit stronger than those on Friday with gusts between 30-40 mph along the coast and in the wind- prone gaps, passes, and valleys. Locally stronger gusts will be possible in these areas this weekend.

The NBM and global forecast models continue to indicate a chance for rain showers across the southern portion of the Bay Area and Central coast Sunday evening through Monday. This is as an upper level cut- off low pressure system and remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel push into the Central Coast. However, not expecting widespread measurable rainfall at this time. Winds ease late Sunday and into early next week as the through axis shifts inland. Cooler conditions are forecast to persist through midweek as troughing persists over the West Coast. Then, as we head into the latter part of the upcoming week, a gradual warming trend is forecast by the WPC Cluster Analysis as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR this evening, except at HAF where borderline IFR-LIFR ceilings have already developed. MRY and SNS follow in pursuit after sunset as stratus continues to funnel into Monterey Bay. The marine layer is expected to deepen slightly overnight as the high pressure dome destabilizes with the potential for inland expansion. Low confidence on fog development at STS and IFR ceilings at APC as it depends on how much the marine layer deepens and expands. The current TAF suggests the potential for these pessimistic scenarios. Moderate confidence on borderline IFR-MVFR ceilings at OAK due to favorable winds and a robust stratus deck offshore. Any ceilings that develop should mix out by Friday morning. High confidence for the interior East and South Bay valleys to remain VFR throughout the TAF cycle. A diurnal onshore wind pattern prevails with stronger winds expected tomorrow afternoon as a dry cold front approaches the region.

Vicinity of SFO...Strong northwest winds gradually ease and become westerly post sunset. Moderate confidence for VFR conditions to prevail at SFO this TAF cycle with some scattered clouds overnight. Higher confidence for stratus impacts at OAK. Breezy onshore winds increase around 10 to 18 kt early Friday afternoon due to the approaching dry cold front.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR, though IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to develop shortly after sunset. Onshore winds become light overnight as visibility reduces due to either mist or fog. Medium confidence on the exact timing of fog development. Conditions improve Friday morning with VFR prevailing through the afternoon as onshore winds increase to around 10 kt.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 535 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes will increase Friday into the weekend to become strong to near gale northerly winds across the coastal waters, Monterey Bay, and through the Golden Gate. Gale force gusts are expected across the northern outer waters and the coastal jet region of Point Reyes. These winds will build rough to very rough seas. Long period southerly swell arrives Friday, with long period northwesterly swell arriving Sunday, creating a confused sea state.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 428 AM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Hot and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the interior and higher terrain Thursday. Temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal and poor minimum relative humidity will continue away from the compressed marine layer at the coast Thursday. The higher terrain will experience active thermal belting, little-to-no recovery with nocturnal drying across the highest peaks, and thus prolonged burn periods. Winds remain the limiting factor, with diurnal winds prevailing except for light northerly/offshore flow overnight across the higher terrain. Even though conditions become cooler and more humid Friday, windier conditions will keep elevated fire weather conditions across the interior and higher terrain through Friday.

Sarment

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-530.

Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-506- 508-510-512>518.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.