textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Seasonably cool temperatures today before a warming trend begins Wednesday through the weekend

- Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents today through Friday

- Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night)

Seasonal to seasonally cool temperatures continue today into tomorrow thanks to a deep marine layer and expansive layer of marine stratus. The marine layer is forecast to remain between 1500-2000 feet through tomorrow as troughing continues to our west over the Pacific Ocean. Marine stratus will return across much of the interior Bay Area and Central Coast tonight with pockets of fog possible across the North Bay Valleys and along the coast. If you are missing clear skies today, you will have a better chance at seeing them tomorrow. Confidence is higher tomorrow that stratus will recede by late morning/early afternoon across the interior as surface high pressure strengthens and the marine layer compresses to around 1000-1500 feet. The marine layer will help keep much of the area seasonally cool with high temperatures in the 50s to 60s along the coast and 70s to 80s across the interior Bay Area. The one exception will be the interior Central Coast where temperatures are seasonal to seasonally warm in the 80s to 90s. Marine layer influence on the interior Central Coast is minimal with building high pressure across the desert southwest having a stronger influence on that region. Breezy afternoon and evening winds continue across mountain gaps/passes (the Salinas Valley, San Bruno Gap, the Altamont Pass) and along the coast.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (Thursday through next Monday)

The forecast begins to change Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure across the Desert Southwest retrogrades, becoming centered more over Southern California. This allows temperatures to warm up by a few (~4-5) degrees outside of coastal areas and the bay shoreline. For the interior Bay Area this results in temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with pockets of 90s in the far North Bay and far interior East Bay. The warmest locations will be in the interior Central Coast where temperatures look to be in the low 100s Thursday and Friday. The NBM deterministic is running closer to the 90th percentile for the interior Central Coast but even the mean NBM forecast keeps temperatures around 100. All that to say, whatever way you look at it the interior Central Coast will be hot on Thursday. Temperatures will remain fairly similar to this through the rest of the extended forecast as upper level ridging builds over California. High temperatures will fluctuate by 1-2 degrees but will largely stay in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s along the coast, 70s along the bay shoreline, and 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Long range models are showing early potential for strong upper level ridging to build across the Intermountain West early to mid next week. This is likely to bring above normal temperatures with initial guidance for Tuesday showing temperatures warming across the interior East Bay and interior Central Coast. This is certainly something to keep an eye on if not for the heat impacts but the fire weather risk.

In addition to the hotter conditions expected in the long term, there is the potential for dry lightning Sunday into Monday. On the synoptic scale, upper level high pressure will more northeastward (towards the Intermountain West) Sunday into Monday while upper level troughing deepens over the Pacific Ocean. Our region is still primarily influenced by the upper level ridge, but, the deepening trough will result in stronger southeasterly flow across Southern California, Arizona, and the Gulf of California. This will bring a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California northward into California. PWAT values look to be between 1-1.5" Sunday into Monday which is approximately 150-200% of normal for this time of year. The highest PWAT values are currently forecast across the Central Coast, South Bay, and East Bay. At the same time, the 700- 500 mb lapse rates are between 7-8 C/km which are favorable for convection to develop. If all these ingredients are able to come together, then it is likely we would see high-based thunderstorms across portions of our CWA. Given the elevated nature of any potential thunderstorms, any precipitation that falls would evaporate before reaching the surface. The two most likely hazards would then be dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds. Hot and dry conditions this week will prime the environment for fire starts by further drying out fuels and making them more susceptible to fire starts if thunderstorms develop. Fire weather concerns are elevated Sunday into early next week as a result of the dry lightning threat. While the pattern appears conducive for thunderstorm development, there remains some uncertainty regarding specific details. The nature of these specific details may modulate the risk for a high-based convective event.

This is a good time to stay tuned to the forecast as we move into the domain of higher resolution short term models and the forecast becomes clearer later this week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A persistent stratus deck, characterized by IFR to MVFR ceilings will continue to gradually erode from east to west this afternoon. However, the clearing trend has been slow and confidence is a little lower than normal with regard to specific times, particularly at coastal sites. While VFR is advertised between 20Z-23Z this afternoon at all TAFs, it's quite probable that it's short-lived. Persistent onshore flow is forecast to translate into an early evening (01Z-05Z) return of MVFR and IFR ceilings. The potential for LIFR ceilings and IFR visibility is greatest at HAF, STS, and APC, though low confidence precludes mention in the TAFs at this time. Higher confidence does exist in VFR by 21Z Wednesday, but for most locales, this is after the current valid TAF cycle.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR is forecast to prevail through 21Z, though confidence is low to medium. Winds are anticipated to funnel through the gap with peak gusts just under 30 knots this afternoon. While there remains uncertainty in VFR this afternoon, confidence is high that MVFR will be in place by 03Z. Despite the forecast of lower near surface moisture (relative to Tue AM), IFR is forecast during the pre-dawn hours on Wed as onshore flow persists. There's a greater chance for VFR Wed afternoon with medium to high confidence.

SFO Bridge Approach...VFR will return 1 to potentially 2 hours ahead of the main terminal this afternoon. Otherwise, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR currently, but the VFR potential is greatest at SNS as the eastern edge of a stratus bank erodes. Intermittent MVFR is forecast through mid-afternoon here. An eddy has developed near OAR and provide favorable trajectories for a persistent fetch of MVFR stratus into MRY thru the afternoon. If this eddy dissipates, however, clearing may transpire and VFR could return to MRY sooner than forecast. Trends will be monitored. IFR is forecast to make a return this evening between 03-04Z. Occasional-DZ cannot be discounted (and thus IFR visibility) at MRY. At this time, confidence is too low to include. IFR ceilings are forecast to lift into MVFR toward the end of the TAF period, though eddy development may alter the timing.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 916 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Moderate to strong breezes are forecast across area waters, including the bays over the next 24 hours. Northwesterly swell between 6 and 8 feet will continue, with approximately 2 to 3 foot secondary long period southerly swell persisting through the week. While winds diminish to largely gentle breezes across bays, strong breezes and rough seas will persist through early Thursday across the Pacific coast waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest information.

BEACHES

Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.