textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1058 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Daily record temperatures expected today

- Cooling trend starts Monday

- Chance for light rain Tuesday - Thursday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1058 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026 (This afternoon through Monday)

Clear skies dominate the cwa outside of Big Sur as the ridge continues to hang on. The big question is if we will set record max temperatures this afternoon. The 12Z sounding found an 850 mb temperature of 15.6 C, somewhere between the 90th percentile and daily max(13.5, 19.6). Lower down, the 925 mb temperature was measured at 20.6 C, well above the 19.6 record for 12Z observations on this date. That's a strong indication that we will have a chance to break temperature records as the sun heats up the surface and breaks the low-level inversion. San Jose looks particularly susceptible today. The record is 82 degrees from 2018. It's already 71 degrees as of 11 AM. The latest forecast calls for 85 degrees. GFSLAMP and HRRR and warmer at 86 and 87 degrees, respectively. Other stations to watch include Oakland, Santa Rosa, San Rafael, Napa, and Richmond. The only fly in the ointment is high clouds. The PW is actually decently high at 0.6". Most of the higher humidity air is above 500 mb, where the lapse rates support some instability. This combination supports high clouds and long lasting contrails that will filter the afternoon sunshine and take some edge of the max temperature. The current visible satellite shows the current high clouds are pretty thin, however and the impact will likely be limited.

Monday will be a transition day as the ridge finally starts to break down ahead of an approaching trough. The persistent high level moisture, combined with the divergent area of the jet stream downstream of the approaching trough will lead to broken to overcast mid and high level clouds for most of the day. These clouds, combined with the gradually lowering 1000-500 mb thickness will drop inland temperatures by roughly 10 degrees compared to Sunday. There is a very small chance the clouds Monday will produce any rain, but it's not out of the question for a few drops to hit the ground Monday night.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1058 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)

Rain chances return to the forecast in earnest Tuesday. It feels good to type that following what will very likely go down as the warmest and driest March in the last 100 years. Unfortunately the uncertainty mentioned on Friday looks to be resolving towards the drier solution. The ensemble clusters now agree that the core of the 500 mb low will move through the Pacific Northwest, leaving the Bay Area with just the tail end of a long cold front. Some light prefrontal rain is likely on Tuesday with a pre-frontal moisture push focused on the Central Coast. The cold front will move through sometime late Wednesday or early Thursday. Frontal passage will bring the best chance of rain for the Bay Area. Our current forecast calls for around 1/10th of an inch on average, with up to 1/4" in the coastal mountains, and next to nothing across the interior rain shadowed areas (San Jose, interior East Bay, etc). Some lingering showers are possible through the day Thursday, but any instability will be limited by very dry air (PW <0.3") behind the front.

While the rain leaves a little to be desired mid-week, the temperatures will cool down back to seasonal normals (generally 60s in the afternoon). At least for a short time. By Friday a new ridge will start to build, pushing us back into the 70s. The warming trend continues through the weekend and the interior will likely be right back in the 80s by Saturday.

The uncertainty really balloons by the 7th or 8th of April. Roughly 40% of the ensemble members support troughing and cooler temperatures, while the other 60% show continued ridging hanging on.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with high clouds streaming in and stratus remaining confined to the Big Sur Coast. Moderate to high confidence on VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Tonight another southerly surge may try again and conditions will cool and moisten with an approaching cold front, but confidence is low that sub-VFR conditions will develop at the terminals as a result. Diurnal winds will prevail. Haze will reduce slant range visibilities.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with light northeasterly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds will back through the TAF period, maintaining diurnal patterns.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with drainage flow at SNS. Moderate confidence on VFR prevailing through the TAF period. A southerly surge may try again tonight, but confidence is low that it'll impact the terminals. Even if the terminals aren't directly impacted, low ceilings/visibilities should be expected within the area, especially along the Big Sur Coast. Diurnal winds will prevail.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1010 AM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A moderate northerly breeze and moderate seas continue through Monday before winds weaken and shift to a SW direction Tuesday. A cold front will move through Wednesday, followed by near gale force NW winds and rough seas Thursday into Friday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 952 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Here are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for March 29th.

Location March 29th

Santa Rosa 86 in 2018 San Rafael 85 in 2018 Kentfield 84 in 1935 Napa 83 in 2018, 1968 Richmond 79 in 1968 Livermore 85 in 2015 San Francisco 81 in 2018 SFO Airport 81 in 2018 Redwood City 85 in 2018, 1968 Half Moon Bay 77 in 2004 Oakland 79 in 2003 San Jose 82 in 2018 Salinas Airport 86 in 2018

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.