textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Very hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast today with breaking waves 25 to 35 feet

- Stay away from the beach!

- Scattered showers through the morning

- Periods of rain continue through the next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 (Today and tonight)

The first of a series of frontal systems passed us by yesterday, with post-frontal showers persisting across the Bay Area and Central Coast through the morning. Skies will start out partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, with increasing cloudiness through the afternoon and evening hours as a second system arrives for Sunday and Monday. Morning lows will fall in the lower to middle 40s for the inland valleys, down into the middle to upper 30s for the coolest interior spots, and the upper 40s to lower 50s for the Bayshore and coastal regions. Highs today will remain on the cool side with the inland valleys coming in within the middle 60s and the Pacific coast within the lower 60s, while higher elevations areas range in the middle to upper 50s. Winds will be gentle through the day, turning southerly as the second system approaches, with some gusty winds possible in the North Bay mountains tonight.

Very hazardous conditions are developing along the Pacific coast with High Surf Warnings in effect through early Sunday morning due to surf heights of 25 to 35 feet accompanied by a high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Locally higher waves of 40 to 50 feet are possible at favored locations including Mavericks Beach. In addition, coastal flooding concerns stemming from wave runup effects are possible along the coastline. See the BEACHES section for more details, but to quote: "These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean."

LONG TERM

Issued at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

A second frontal system comes through Sunday into the early part of Monday. Rain totals will range from a half an inch to one inch across most of the Bay Area, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia range, one to one and a half inches in the Sonoma County coastal ranges, and a quarter to half an inch across the interior portions of the East Bay and the Central Coast. Winds will be elevated, but will not be as strong as Friday's system with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible across the SF Bay Area as the front approaches and moves through. Another lull in the rainfall comes later Monday into Tuesday, before a third system comes into the region later on Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too early at this stage to be confident on how much rain this third system will bring, but the forecast trend is leaning towards a more potent system coming into the region as model output suggests that this storm will be stronger than the Sunday-Monday system and slow down as it comes into the region. The flooding concerns will increase through the next few days as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the weather pattern remains active with a lean towards rain totals above seasonal averages into the last week of November.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

More widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist with isolated MVFR conditions overnight that may be accompanied by scattered showers. There is moderate to high confidence of ceilings scattering out tonight with shower activity decreasing by early Saturday morning. Light south-southwest winds will persist through tomorrow afternoon with another system arriving late Saturday night into Sunday.

Vicinity of SFO...There is high confidence of VFR conditions continuing into Saturday afternoon with isolated instances of MVFR possible as the scattered rain showers make their way through the forecast area. Scattered showers are still possible tonight as we head into the morning hours, but will become less likely after midnight. Ceilings will continue to scatter out overnight into Saturday morning. Light south-southwest winds will persist into Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered showers continue to move through the Central Coast but will taper off overnight. Clear skies and light onshore flow return by late tomorrow morning before winds shift southerly again late evening/overnight ahead of the next system arriving Sunday.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

Scattered showers and a moderate northwesterly breeze will continue over the marine environment through early Saturday morning. Very dangerous conditions for mariners continues with wave heights building significantly tonight into Saturday. Very high seas are expected on Saturday with significant wave heights up to 25 feet forecast across the coastal waters. Wave heights subside slightly Sunday but very high seas will persist through early next week. The next round of fresh to strong southerly winds will arrive Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread rain returns early Sunday and continues into Monday with winds decreasing and shifting northwesterly after cold frontal passage.

BEACHES

Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026

High Surf Warning: A High Surf Warning is now in effect through 4AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast and bring very hazardous coastal conditions. The peak of this swell is set to arrive on Saturday with breaking waves up to 35 feet expected along the coast in addition to strong rip currents and an increased risk of sneaker waves. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely at favored breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):

The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly during high tide.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.