textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Seasonably cool temperatures today before a warming trend begins Wednesday through the weekend

- Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents today through Friday

- Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (This evening through Wednesday night)

Seasonal to seasonally cool temperatures continue today into tomorrow thanks to a deep marine layer and expansive layer of marine stratus. The marine layer is forecast to remain between 1500-2000 feet through tomorrow as troughing continues to our west over the Pacific Ocean. Marine stratus will return across much of the interior Bay Area and Central Coast tonight with pockets of fog possible across the North Bay Valleys and along the coast. If you are missing clear skies today, you will have a better chance at seeing them tomorrow. Confidence is higher tomorrow that stratus will recede by late morning/early afternoon across the interior as surface high pressure strengthens and the marine layer compresses to around 1000-1500 feet. The marine layer will help keep much of the area seasonally cool with high temperatures in the 50s to 60s along the coast and 70s to 80s across the interior Bay Area. The one exception will be the interior Central Coast where temperatures are seasonal to seasonally warm in the 80s to 90s. Marine layer influence on the interior Central Coast is minimal with building high pressure across the desert southwest having a stronger influence on that region. Breezy afternoon and evening winds continue across mountain gaps/passes (the Salinas Valley, San Bruno Gap, the Altamont Pass) and along the coast.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1253 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 (Thursday through next Monday)

The forecast begins to change Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure across the Desert Southwest retrogrades, becoming centered more over Southern California. This allows temperatures to warm up by a few (~4-5) degrees outside of coastal areas and the bay shoreline. For the interior Bay Area this results in temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with pockets of 90s in the far North Bay and far interior East Bay. The warmest locations will be in the interior Central Coast where temperatures look to be in the low 100s Thursday and Friday. The NBM deterministic is running closer to the 90th percentile for the interior Central Coast but even the mean NBM forecast keeps temperatures around 100. All that to say, whatever way you look at it the interior Central Coast will be hot on Thursday. Temperatures will remain fairly similar to this through the rest of the extended forecast as upper level ridging builds over California. High temperatures will fluctuate by 1-2 degrees but will largely stay in the 80s to low 90s across the interior, 60s along the coast, 70s along the bay shoreline, and 90s to low 100s across the interior Central Coast. Long range models are showing early potential for strong upper level ridging to build across the Intermountain West early to mid next week. This is likely to bring above normal temperatures with initial guidance for Tuesday showing temperatures warming across the interior East Bay and interior Central Coast. This is certainly something to keep an eye on if not for the heat impacts but the fire weather risk.

In addition to the hotter conditions expected in the long term, there is the potential for dry lightning Sunday into Monday. On the synoptic scale, upper level high pressure will more northeastward (towards the Intermountain West) Sunday into Monday while upper level troughing deepens over the Pacific Ocean. Our region is still primarily influenced by the upper level ridge, but, the deepening trough will result in stronger southeasterly flow across Southern California, Arizona, and the Gulf of California. This will bring a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California northward into California. PWAT values look to be between 1-1.5" Sunday into Monday which is approximately 150-200% of normal for this time of year. The highest PWAT values are currently forecast across the Central Coast, South Bay, and East Bay. At the same time, the 700- 500 mb lapse rates are between 7-8 C/km which are favorable for convection to develop. If all these ingredients are able to come together, then it is likely we would see high-based thunderstorms across portions of our CWA. Given the elevated nature of any potential thunderstorms, any precipitation that falls would evaporate before reaching the surface. The two most likely hazards would then be dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds. Hot and dry conditions this week will prime the environment for fire starts by further drying out fuels and making them more susceptible to fire starts if thunderstorms develop. Fire weather concerns are elevated Sunday into early next week as a result of the dry lightning threat. While the pattern appears conducive for thunderstorm development, there remains some uncertainty regarding specific details. The nature of these specific details may modulate the risk for a high-based convective event.

This is a good time to stay tuned to the forecast as we move into the domain of higher resolution short term models and the forecast becomes clearer later this week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The marine layer stratus is making its nightly push inland. Some drier air has filtered into the North Bay, keeping STS and APC in the clear for now. Eventually all terminals will develop a ceiling, with a lowering trend through the night. Expect MVFR-IFR flight conditions.

Vicinity of SFO...The ceiling is 1,300 feet at the moment, and slowly lowering. MVFR conditions are likely to persist through around 09Z when the chance for high IFR increases. Winds will remain WNW, strengthening to around 20 knots tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Despite the dry pocket over the Monterey Bay, coastal convergence is enough to sustain a ceiling over both MRY and SNS, and it's now unlikely to improve as the night wares on. Expect MVFR conditions to gradually lower to high IFR by sunrise.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 947 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Buoys are reporting a fresh to strong NW breeze across the coastal waters. These conditions will persist for several days as rough seas build to 8-12 feet. Meanwhile a low, long period SW swell will persist through Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday and continue into this weekend. This will increase fire weather concerns slightly as fuels rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The current pattern looks conducive for thunderstorms to develop but this may change as the event gets closer in time. Given the combination of potential for dry lightning and dry fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest information.

BEACHES

Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding from Thursday July 9th through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006- 506-508.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.