textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1128 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Slightly warmer and dry weather through the middle of the upcoming week

- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)

- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

- Unsettled weather returns by late week

UPDATE

Issued at 901 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Patchy to areas of dense fog were reported this morning across the North Bay Valleys, Russian River valley, in and around Livermore, locations such as Marina, and down in the southern Salinas Valley (around King City). These conditions are improving currently and expected to continue to do so through mid-to-late morning as surface temperatures warm throughout the afternoon. The cold front to our north is dissipating and will have only minor impacts to this afternoon's forecast maximum temperatures. However, high clouds will continue over the North Bay and Bay Area through much of the day. That said, no updates are anticipated at this time.

RGass

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1133 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026 (Tonight through Monday)

A cold front is forecast to move onshore early Sunday morning, mainly impacting the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. As it moves on land, it will dissipate rather quickly, therefore no rain is expected in our area with this system. Ahead of the front however, high and low cloud cover has increased across the Bay Area and Central Coast. While low clouds are forecast to burn off by Sunday morning, high clouds will remain. Weak cold air advection along with an enhanced moisture flux (from the low clouds) will be sufficient to slightly decrease temperatures Sunday through Monday along the coast and across the Bay Area. Despite this cooling, maximum temperatures remain 5-10 deg F above normal at the aforementioned locations. The interior South Bay and Central Coast valleys are likely to experience temperatures 10-15 deg F above normal through Monday.

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1133 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

High pressure builds over the region as zonal to weak ridging reforms in the wake of Sunday's frontal passage. This pattern will support another round of gentle offshore flow beginning Monday night. As a result, above normal temperatures persist through Wednesday.

Thursday is roughly when we can expect conditions to begin to change. A deep mid to upper level trough approaches our coast allowing winds to shift south-southwesterly. This wind direction may assist in drawing in moisture from the Eastern Pacific, though confidence remains low on exactly how much transport will occur. Both the ensemble ECMWF and GFS members advertise precipitable water values around the 75th percentile late next week with a *very* low, non-zero chance for thunderstorm activity. The potential for rain enters the chat as early as Friday and is likely to persist into the weekend. As we get closer to the event, the exact details on the system's trajectory and expected rainfall amounts will be refined. In the meantime, it is advised to begin preparations for the winter season.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 937 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR is expected to prevail through the remainder of the day and evening hours with MVFR/IFR ceilings likely for most terminals overnight into Monday morning. Patchy dense fog may impact the North Bay and South Bay terminals at times overnight through mid-morning Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...Lingering MVFR/IFR ceilings will erode over the next hour or so (~1830z). Expect VFR for the remainder of today and this evening. Moderate confidence in MVFR/IFR ceilings developing after midnight and continuing through mid-morning Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of today and early evening before MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to develop shortly before midnight and persist through the remainder of the forecast period.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 901 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Moderate to fresh northerly breezes over the coastal waters will persist into the beginning of the upcoming work week with rough to very rough seas and hazardous conditions for small craft. Elevated mixed long period swell will continue through the week, increasing further by the end of the forecast period.

BEACHES

Issued at 350 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026

Final day of the weekend and beach weather will be rather nice. However, the surf zone won't be nice. In case you missed it, a Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show the surf zone remains energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As such, large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at favored break point. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave activity early next week, but longer range forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast late next week.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.