textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week

- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday 11/13

- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 (This evening through Friday night)

Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the week as high pressure builds in from the Eastern Pacific. As such, afternoon temperatures will be up to 2-8 deg F above seasonal averages today in the major population centers. High clouds will be streaming in from the northwest throughout the afternoon and evening hours, having little effect on temperatures.

Not seeing much in the way of fog development tonight, as weak to moderate offshore flow persists across the higher terrain of the Bay Area and Central Coast. However, cannot rule out a few pockets of fog in the North Bay valleys early Friday morning and lingering until the sun rises before quickly mixing out. Once again, high clouds are forecast to stream in from the northwest on Friday morning and then clearing out by mid-to-late afternoon. As such, daytime high temperatures on Friday look to be a few degrees warmer than today.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday)

Weak ridging or zonal flow will persist across the region through early next week, leading to slightly above normal temperatures. This will be both overnight minimums and afternoon maximums. A shallow marine layer, generally less than 1,000 feet, is forecast to return Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of an approaching frontal system set to move into northern California. Confidence in wet weather conditions have stayed the same if not lessened slightly heading into the middle of next week and beyond. Again, the ECMWF ensemble mean shows greater than 2" of rain at SFO between Wednesday the 11th and Wednesday the 18th. While that is about normal for the interior month, it looks to be spread out in time. However, given the lack of confidence looking out this far in time, be sure to check back for the latest forecast information.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 942 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Patchy ground fog and stratus has eroded this morning, leaving us with clear skies and VFR conditions while writing this discussion. Looking at satellite, high clouds are slowly creeping into northwestern CA and should slowly sag into the Bay Area late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Models depict high clouds clearing by the evening and early overnight hours, leaving us with mainly clear skies overnight. The forecast challenge for the period will be if we get any fog or low cloud development tonight. Given the trends at KAPC and KSTS, opted to continue to hint at some patchy ground fog and low cloud from roughly 11Z-15Z, though the onset could be a bit earlier. Expect VFR conditions for all terminals shortly after sunrise / by mid morning. High clouds look to return to the forecast. Moderate to high confidence in the forecast.

Vicinity of SFO...Light offshore winds should prevail through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. The seabreeze is expected to return this afternoon, likely between 22Z and 0Z, where winds will generally be around 10 to 15kt. Winds ease into the evening hours, becoming light and potentially variable after 6Z-8Z time frame. Weak offshore flow develops mid morning, with onshore flow returning tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions prevail, and we'll see a mix of clear skies and high clouds through the period. Moderate to high confidence in the forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period, with low confidence of impactful stratus developing this evening into Friday morning. Light winds out of the northwest will shift to light south-southeast winds in the afternoon and evening hours before transitioning back to northwest Friday morning.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 942 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Moderate to fresh north winds prevail through Friday and slacken to gentle to moderate breezes for Sunday and Monday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through the weekend, though the very rough seas across the northern outer waters north of Pigeon Point late Sunday into Monday morning. Dry weather is forecast through early next week, with rain chances arriving by mid to late week.

BEACHES

Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

Beach Hazards Statement:

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.