textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 121 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Strong winds expected along the coast and across higher terrain Wednesday through Friday

- Offshore winds will bring warmer weather this weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 121 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026 (Today and tonight)

With the lunar eclipse underway there is a lot of focus on the cloud cover this morning. The situation is pretty complex. Boundary layer averaged winds are actually from the NE, but surface winds are still onshore for most locations. The SFO-SAC gradient is +0.9 mb (onshore), but the SFO-WMC gradient is -1.1 mb (offshore). The marine stratus deck is becoming more organized, and it looks like a race against time for the remaining clear skies to stay that way before totality. The best chance is in the interior East Bay and Monterey County, but even those aren't guaranteed as the stratus closes in over the next hour.

A short wave ridge will dominate the pattern today. This will bring afternoon temperatures 2-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. On the other hand, the ridge and warmer air will help support a thermal trough near the coast. This will bring an enhanced sea breeze that will be noticeable for coastal communities. After the clouds burn off late morning it will be a warm, clear, and breezy afternoon.

LONG TERM

Issued at 121 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026 (Wednesday through Monday)

Another trough moves through on Wednesday, dragging a cold front across the surface. Overcast skies will be a clear sign of the front passing through the afternoon and evening. The rain chances and amounts were already low, but have decreased thanks to the dry air mass. The real story with this front is wind. Very strong high pressure will build behind the front, reaching around 1035 mb in the Eastern Pacific. While high pressure is the norm in the Eastern Pacific, 1035 mb is roughly 15 mb or 1.5 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. The gradient between this high pressure and the ~1007 mb low that supported the cold front will support strong NW winds starting Wednesday and continuing through Friday night. Gusts will very likely reach gale force along the coast and across higher terrain. The wind direction will gradually shift from NW onshore flow to northerly or NE offshore flow as the 500 mb pattern evolves into an inside slider by Saturday. The combination of high pressure and offshore winds will bring a warming trend through the weekend, with most areas easily reaching the 70s from Saturday through Monday. The forecast uncertainty grows by the middle of next week. Most ensemble solutions keep a general ridging pattern, but a few outliers disagree and bring a more active pattern. The most likely outcome is a very dry first half of March.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 349 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

There is widespread stratus coverage this morning across all terminals with dense fog across the North Bay. These clouds will gradually mix out through the late morning with high confidence in VFR conditions through the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR stratus is likely through the late morning before mixing out around 18-20Z. All indications are that a strong sea breeze will develop this afternoon with sustained winds between 12 and 18 knots at the terminal. The return of stratus Tuesday night is a little less certain, but the guidance has been trending more towards an overnight return of MVFR ceilings.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...While offshore winds persisted overnight, the marine stratus eventually won the battle against dry air reached MRY. SNS is the only VFR terminal at the moment, but that won't last very long. Midday clearing will bring VFR conditions before stratus returns overnight.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 349 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

Expect hazardous marine weather conditions Wednesday through Friday. A moderate NW breeze will increase to a strong NW breeze on Wednesday and near gale force NNW breeze by Thursday. These winds will build very rough seas of 12 to 15 feet across exposed waters Thursday through Friday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.