textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Drier conditions beginning today through midweek

- Temperatures remain near or slightly above seasonal averages

- Next chance for rain arrives the day after Thanksgiving

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1231 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025 (Today and tonight)

Radar returns continue to show isolated showers lingering across interior San Benito County as an upper level low exits to our south. Those showers should continue to diminish through the rest of the night and dissipate entirely by sunrise today, which will be drier and clearer than the last couple of days. The morning should dawn clear and bright across the Bay Area, with lingering clouds and potentially fog over the South Bay and Central Coast dissipating before the afternoon. High temperatures today reach the upper 50s to middle 60s in the lower elevations, barring the North Bay valleys where highs reach the upper 60s, while the higher elevations drop into the lower to middle 50s.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1231 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025 (Saturday through Thursday)

The exiting upper level low will allow a ridging pattern to settle in across the western United States, ushering in a drier pattern that should persist into the middle of next week and the Thanksgiving holiday. A shallow marine layer should redevelop on Saturday, but weak easterly flow aloft will keep marine layer stratus from coming inland. High temperatures continue to hover in the upper 50s to middle 60s for the lower elevations through the middle of the week, near or up to 5 degrees above the seasonal average for this time of year.

The next chance for rain arrives towards the end of next week, particularly the day after Thanksgiving into the following weekend. Ensemble member cluster analysis hints at an upper level trough developing off the West Coast and bringing rain chances to the state. As of now, the ensemble members are split roughly 50-50 between those showing a more pronounced trough over the West Coast and those that show more zonal flow or possibly even a ridge over the region. The CPC's 6-10 day outlook shows a lean to precipitation totals near the seasonal average for a period from the 26th to the 30th. For context, looking at the historical averages, around half an inch of rain would fall in downtown San Francisco during this period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 237 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

It's VFR-MVFR including patchy fog /VLIFR-IFR/ this morning. Patchy morning fog will mix out by late morning otherwise VFR. Patchy fog /VLIFR-IFR/ redeveloping tonight and Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Wind north-northeast near 5 knots this morning then shifting to west-northwest 10 knots this afternoon and early evening. Light northeast wind redeveloping early Saturday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light and variable winds this morning. Westerly winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and early evening then light southeasterly tonight and early Saturday.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 232 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

High pressure will build in from the northwest today through early next week. Hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend even as winds diminish seas will remain hazardous. Elevated seas will be prolonged by the arrival of long period northwesterly swell.

BEACHES

Issued at 327 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.