textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026

- Warming and drying trend will continue through the early part of next week

- Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday

- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations across the interior early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 (This evening through Saturday)

Low clouds have dissipated across the interior earlier than yesterday despite the marine layer sitting around 2,000 feet this morning. As such, temperatures across the interior are forecast to warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the interior, in the upper 60s to mid 70s around the San Fransico Bay Shoreline, and upper 50s to lower 60s in areas that the coastal stratus remains in place (generally near the coast).

Tonight, expecting less inland intrusion of stratus as the marine layer compresses and high pressure continues to build in from the eastern Pacific. There is the potential for mist or light drizzle again tonight into Saturday morning, yet widespread measurable rainfall is highly unlikely. We are expecting a few degrees of warming on Saturday afternoon, especially in the interior where we are expecting less cloud cover in the morning. However, most locations across the region will remain in Minor HeatRisk.

LONG TERM

Issued at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)

The warming and drying trend will continue through the remainder of the weekend and are forecast to peak on Monday. This is when will see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. However, the moderate risk has less areal coverage compared to yesterday's forecast. This is as we are expecting weaker high pressure aloft and greater presences of a marine layer early next week. However, Monday afternoon is still forecast to be the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the low to upper 90s across the interior, mid 80s to low 90s across inland away from the coast, and low 70s to mid 80s near coastal locations.

Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however will still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The cooling trend is forecast to continue through the remainder of next week with temperatures cooling to near seasonal averages as a more zonal flow returns as the ridge shifts eastward. There remains some uncertainty beyond the middle of next week as model solutions diverge. Be sure to check back for the latest developments in the forecast as we head into next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows clear skies across much of the region, with stratus clinging to portions of the coastline. Majority of the TAF sites are currently VFR, the exceptions being KHAF, KSFO, and KMRY. The North Bay valley have a decent shot at staying VFR through the TAF cycle, as weak offshore flow occurs. Opted to only hint at the possibility for some lower cigs at KAPC and kept the pessimistic forecast of stratus coming in at KSTS early tomorrow morning. If guidance and observations continue to support the offshore flow, it's quite possible North Bay terminals remain VFR through tomorrow morning. HAF will remain MVFR until late morning Saturday. LAMP guidance is hinting at IFR ceilings at 15Z Saturday, though they may roll in an hour early. Moderate NW winds will ease a bit overnight before picking up again tomorrow morning.

Vicinity of SFO...The stratus appears to be clinging on to the area around KSFO for dear life, making the forecast quite tricky. The question will be, does this stratus let up for a few hours and bring a stint of VFR hours. If not, expect MVFR cigs through tomorrow morning. Opted to keep the trend of the previous forecast and added gusty westerly winds tomorrow afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions expected to return later tonight with the assistance of moderate westerly winds pushing the coastal stratus deck onshore. The highest probability of IFR ceilings developing is around 12-15Z Saturday, though they may roll in earlier. Winds will remain light through the overnight hours before picking up in speed by late morning Saturday. The marine layer is expected to stick around MRY through the TAF period with SNS expected to scatter out earlier.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 855 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026

Fresh to strong northwest breezes with occasional near gale force gusts will continue through the remainder of the weekend along with building rough seas. Winds become more northerly and fresh to moderate on Sunday with rough seas beginning to gradually ease late Sunday into Monday. Gentle to moderate north to northwest breezes are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.