textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

- Rain chances (30-50%) through this evening mainly confined to northern portions of Sonoma county.

- Wetting rains expected Tuesday into Wednesday and again next weekend.

- Active weather pattern begins this weekend and continues through next week.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 (This evening through Monday)

The main cold front this afternoon is visible on satellite as a line of cumulus that extends from Mendocino county southwest out into the Pac Ocean. The interesting feature though is the atmospheric bore that has ripping out ahead of the cold front, running out on top of the marine layer. As it moved across Point Reyes tower camera, the stratus came through with a bit of drizzle as well. RAP Bufkit soundings in the Bay area look to have picked up on this bit of moisture, with SFO/OAK/SJC all showing a brief uptick in saturation in the low level saturation, so you can't rule out a brief hit of stratus/drizzle in the Bay area as this bore moves in, though likely fizzles out as it begins to interact with the land.

As for the main precipitation shield with this front, water vapor imagery shows a deep plume of moisture moving into Oregon and Washington, with models continuing to keep the main synoptically forced rain region remaining farther norther. In addition, low and mid-level simulated WV imagery from special WOFs runs shows a wedge of dry air moving in across central California to the south of the main moisture plume up in Ore/Wash. This dry air shows up in forecast soundings as a wedge of very dry air from h85 to h7 that will keep it dry through this area. Also drying out on forecast soundings are the low levels, with fog looking much less certain tonight than what we had this morning. Adding a layer of complexity to the fog potential is that we will have that band of mid/upper clouds streaming south through the night that could really limit radiational fog potential for the north bay. Other than the potential for mid/upper clouds, Monday looks like another pleasant weather day before more active weather finally makes a return.

LONG TERM

Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

For Tuesday into Wednesday, the GFS has followed the ECMWF in being much stronger with the system that moves into the California coast, with closed lows from the surface up to h5. This includes 30-40 kt southerly jets at 925 and 850 mb that will crash into the Bay area that will help push a stronger moisture surge into the area, with a good wetting rain expected Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Precip amounts continue to creep up with this event, with most lower elevations forecast to get 0.5" to 0.75" of rain, with up to 1.5" of rain in the high elevations of the Big Sur region. Surface troughing will linger through Wednesday night, which will keep some light rain/drizzle going in coastal mountains into early Thursday.

Thursday and Friday continue to trend dry as a ridge moves through out ahead of our weekend trough that will be developing in the northeast Pac. As for that weekend trough, there are timing differences with when the firehose of moisture arrives, but whether it arrives Saturday afternoon (GFS/GEFS) or Saturday night (ECMWF/EPS), everything ends up in the same spot, a very wet end to next weekend, with PoPs in excess of 80% already in place a week out, indicative of this being a fairly predictable event. This will just be the start of a wet pattern, with numerous rounds of rain continuing through the following work week. As for snow potential, we do see freezing levels come down this weekend, but from the perspective of the MTR area, it's only the tops of our tallest peaks that show some snow potential. Freezing levels look to take a further step down next week (week of 2/16), which is when maybe we could see freezing levels low enough to start getting into the MTR mountains.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

General Aviation Discussion... Currently, sites are either VFR or LIFR due to lingering FG and stratus impacts from this morning over the Bay area and North Bay. Satellite is showing signs of conditions improving as FG and low cigs quickly lift and scatter. Winds generally AOB 5kts and VRB directions. A weak FROPA will move through the area late tonight and early Monday morning. The weak boundary will reach the north bay around 06Z, brining MVFR/IFR cigs with it and turning winds to the north/northeast. Only terminal with chances of seeing brief sprinkles/VCSH will be STS. Coastal terminals could see slightly stronger winds, however most sites will keep light winds. Skies will remain mostly OVC AOA 10kft post frontal. This will lead to higher chances for VFR conditions as MVFR/IFR cigs move out. Low chances for FG/BR impacts due to higher clouds and drier air settling in.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently 10SM visibility with VCFG immediately east of the runways. Fog is expected to slowly scatter out through 20z, yielding to VFR conditions in the afternoon. SCt-BKN clouds based 4-6 kft MSL return around 00-02z, followed by increasing lower clouds based 1-3 kft MSL between 03-05z, yielding to periods of MVFR ceilings through 08-10z Monday. VFR conditions prevail thereafter as low clouds scatter out. Visibility during this time will generally be greater than 5SM, with spotty drizzle possible. West winds 5 to 10 knots through the San Bruno Gap in the afternoon, turning light and South around 04z Mon, then Northwest after midnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Fog and low clouds below 600 ft MSL are currently dissipating from the approach path. VFR conditions until MVFR stratus returns to the area this evening and tonight through 08-10z Monday.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Fog and low clouds are quickly diminishing in coverage as of 19z with full VFR at both sites by 20z. Cloud bases 4-6 kft return to KOAK around 23-01z Mon, then to KSJC around 02-04z Mon, with periods of MVFR ceilings between 03-10z at KOAK and between 05-14z at KSJC. Clouds scatter out thereafter, yielding to VFR prevailing Monday morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions with light and diurnal driven winds currently. Times of SCT-BKN at 1 to 2kft beginning around 00Z as the off shore stratus moves inland ahead of approaching FROPA. The weak boundary will continue MVFR cigs through the remainder of the period for MRY, and ~10Z for SNS. Winds become west to northwest after 10Z but remain light.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 0859 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

A cold front will move southeastward over the coastal waters and bays tonight and early Monday. Seas will continue moderate today. Northwest winds will strengthen to a fresh to strong breeze today into Monday. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.