textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 102 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Rain showers continue through this evening

- Slight potential for thunderstorms across the north Central Coast through late afternoon

- A warming and drying trend expected for the upcoming weekend and into early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 102 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 (This evening through Friday night)

There remains a slight chance of thunderstorms across mainly the Central Coast between now and around 5 PM to 7 PM this afternoon. This is as up to 500 J/kg of Surface Based CAPE is forecast across this region, with areas farther to the north likely to remain rain showers at there has been a lack of daytime warming occuring due to mid/high level clouds. There are breaks in the sky cover over the north Central Coast especially over Monterey and San Benito counties. Rain showers will linger into late this evening across the Santa Lucia range and the Mountains of San Benito and Interior Monterey County.

Drier conditions return for Friday as weak high pressure builds in the wake of the exiting trough. Additionally, widespread sunshine is expected by Friday afternoon allowing for additional warming. However, maximum temperatures Friday are forecast to be near normal for the North Bay to up to 10 degrees below across the Central Coast.

Periods of moderate northerly winds are likely across the North Bay Interior Mountains Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds across this region have the potential to be between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, potentially stronger in the highest peaks.

LONG TERM

Issued at 102 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday)

A gradual warming and drying trend will persist across the region as high pressure continues to build in from the eastern Pacific. However, through the weekend temperatures only return to near seasonal averages and look to continue that way through much of next week.

The more significant threat will be around low-lying areas along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and along the coast are likely to see minor coastal flooding over the weekend during peak high tides. This is likely to persist into at least the middle of the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Low conf today on exact timing and clouds/vis details given transient nature of showers/rain as a low pressure meanders eastward through the region today. For the general picture mostly MVFR to VFR conditions with pockets of IFR with RA and -SHRA. Gradual diminishing of precip by this evening. Post system regime will feature cooling and damp low level late tonight ad early Friday. As such, some radiation FG is poss for STS with low strato-cu at other terminals early Friday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR to MVFR with poss -SHRA through early this evening. Behind the showers low conf, but have MVFR CIGs overnight and early Friday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR to MVFR with poss -SHRA through early this evening. Behind the showers low conf, but have MVFR CIGs overnight and early Friday. Winds become more diurnal with drainage winds by early Friday for SNS.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Active weather over coastal waters and bays today with showers and thunderstorms as a storm system lingers. Expect gusty, erratic winds if a thunderstorm or stronger shower develops. Marine thunderstorm chances peak early Thursday morning with thunderstorm chances shifting over the inner waters/over land during the afternoon. Moderate northerly breezes gradually return today with strong to near gale force gusts increasing across the outer waters Thursday through Saturday. Moderate seas build, becoming rough to very rough across the outer waters Friday into Saturday before abating Sunday into next week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.