textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 223 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Scattered showers and gusty winds continue through this evening with a low potential for thunderstorms across the Central Coast

- Accumulating snow remains possible in the higher terrain of the Central Coast through tonight

- Cold to very cold conditions are expected across the interior tonight and again Friday night

- Hazardous beach conditions for Pacific Coast beaches through Friday morning

- Brief dry out Friday into Saturday before unsettled conditions return late Saturday and continue into next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 223 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 (This evening through Friday)

Scattered showers continue across the region with a low potential (< 15%) for thunderstorms across the South Bay and Central Coast. We have received one report of a thunderstorm in San Jose around 1230PM with small hail reported in south San Jose. Any thunderstorms or stronger cells that do develop may produce accumulating small hail, locally gusty winds, and moderate to heavy rain. High resolution RRFS guidance shows showers becoming more scattered and predominantly staying over the SF/San Mateo Peninsula, South Bay, and Central Coast through this evening. Showers look to continue over the Central Coast tonight, particularly along the Big Sur Coastline. Additional rainfall amounts are expected to be light with most areas seeing around 0.15-0.2" through this evening. The exception is the Santa Lucia Range where an additional 0.5" is possible. Winds will remain gusty between 30-40 mph through this afternoon before diminishing this evening into the overnight hours.

Much colder temperatures are on the books for tonight with widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the interior while the coast stays slightly warmer in the upper 30s to low 40s. The coldest portions of the interior Central Coast, East Bay Hills, and North Bay will drop into the upper 20s tonight. As such, a mix of Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings have been issued for the majority of the region tonight. Extreme Cold Warnings are generally limited to the higher elevations and the North Bay Valleys while Cold Weather Advisories encompass portions of the Bay Area and Northern Salinas Valley. This cold will be impactful for anyone who does not have adequate access to heat, any pets left outdoors, and any plants sensitive to the cold. Temperatures will not be cold enough or prolonged enough for pipes to freeze during this cold snap. A few climate sites will come within 5 degrees of their daily record low temperatures for Friday. If we are able to have substantial clearing tonight, there may be enough radiational cooling to bring some of the climate sites closer to their record low temperatures. However, cloud cover would be the limiting factor with guidance mixed on clouds clearing overnight on the SF/San Mateo Peninsula, South Bay, and Central Coast. Conditions look more favorable for overnight clearing across the North and East Bays which may result in temperatures cooling a few degrees more than in the current forecast. While Friday looks to be dry, not too much of a warm up can be expected during the day. High temperatures on Friday will be in the low to mid 50s for much of the region on Friday.

LONG TERM

Issued at 223 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

Colder weather continues into Saturday morning with lows in the low to mid 30s across the interior and upper 30s to mid 40s along the coastline. Interior Monterey/San Benito County and the Eastern Santa Clara Hills will drop into the upper 20s Friday night into Saturday morning. Additional Cold Weather Advisories (most areas) and a potential Extreme Cold Warning (portions of interior Monterey/San Benito Counties) will be needed again Friday night. Saturday will be slightly warmer during the day with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Overnight temperatures improve Saturday night into Sunday with most locations (outside of the interior Central Coast and East Bay Hills) staying in the 40s to low 50s. Sunday into next week - daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 50s to 60s while overnight lows are more seasonable in the 40s to low 50s.

Outside of the cooler temperatures, the long term pattern remains active. To start off, much of the region will be fairly dry Friday into Saturday. The exception to this is the North Bay which will see light rain returning Saturday afternoon and continuing through the rest of the weekend. Wondering what's bringing us our next round of storms? Well, a look at the 500 mb heights shows a deep upper level trough located offshore over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean and a building ridge over the Intermountain West. This will be associated with a deep surface low located to our north offshore of the Pacific Northwest. Although the low is to our north, it will bring enough moisture to support light rain this weekend for the North Bay and portions of the coastline. The pressure gradient between the low pressure system offshore and comparatively higher pressure over land will tighten Saturday into Sunday and result in another round of southerly gusty winds across the region. This is expected to bring gusts between 30-40 mph along the coastline and across the higher terrain late Saturday night through early Monday morning.

By Monday into Tuesday, models show this low picking up a more tropical moisture tap oriented towards the Bay Area and Central Coast. This looks to bring another round of moderate rain to the region, however, given that the low has shifted further northwards the amounts have come down since the previous forecast cycle. The North Bay looks to receive the most with between 2-4" across the region, locally higher totals in the coastal mountains. The Santa Cruz Mountains looks to receive between 2-3" of precipitation and the coastal Santa Lucia Range receives between 1-2" between Sunday to late next week. Precipitation amounts for the rest of the region have come down drastically with on average 0.5"-1.0" expected. No additional snowfall is expected next week as this will be a warmer airmass compared to the cooler one that we saw this week. Confidence is low in thunderstorm development with these systems but we are continuing to monitor to this system arriving. That being said, models have trended further northwards over the past few runs and there is the possibility that this could occur again. There may continue to be additional fluctuations in rainfall totals for next week through the weekend as we continue to get a clearer picture of this system.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 928 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026

A typical mixed bag, post-frontal atmosphere through today with periods of mostly clear skies and isolated convective cells. Showers currently moving across the region will exit and activity diminishes through this afternoon. However, breezy NW flow will continue into this evening across most terminals. With much of this week's weather events behind us, conditions appear much more favorable for aviators across the region Friday.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty NW winds continue through this evening. An Airport Weather Warning is in effect until 0300Z for NW gusts up to 35 kts. Otherwise, VFR prevail through the TAF period with the exception of a few scattered showers through midday today (potential for brief MVFR cigs and slant range vis reduction).

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Breezy W/NW winds will continue into this evening. Rain is mostly done for outside of a small chance of a brief, isolated shower invof terminals through this afternoon. Conditions for aviators improve overnight tonight with Friday appearing to be a decent day for flying.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 902 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026

Northwest winds strengthening through today with widespread gale force gusts. Winds ease tonight into Friday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Rough to very rough seas prevail through the week. Rain chances return late in the day on Saturday and continue into early next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 351 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect from the coastal North Bay to coastal Monterey County until 9 AM Friday. Dangerous conditions with localized beach erosion can be expected. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning.

Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1047 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026

The following are the record low temperatures at the long term sites for Friday, Feb 20th.

Location Record Low

Santa Rosa 26 in 1913 Kentfield 27 in 1913 Napa 27 in 2018 Richmond 35 in 1990 Livermore 27 in 2018 San Francisco 38 in 1897 SFO Airport 36 in 2018 Redwood City 30 in 1933 Half Moon Bay 28 in 2018 Oakland Museum 36 in 2011 San Jose 30 in 1897 Salinas Airport 28 in 1953

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530.

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ502- 503-505-508-512-513-528-529.

Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ504-506- 510-514>518.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Friday for CAZ517-518.

PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.