textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Moderate to strong winds along the coast and at higher elevations through Saturday

- Warming trend through the weekend with the warmest temperatures on Sunday

- Dry conditions through the extended forecast

UPDATE

Issued at 843 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026

Strong high pressure over the eastern Pacific continues to build over far northern California and the Great Basin. Strong and gusty winds are mainly confined to the coastal waters with occasional land overlap of gusty winds anticipated through early Friday. Dry weather continues along with daytime warming through this weekend with well above normal daytime highs Saturday and Sunday.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1229 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026 (This evening through Friday)

Clear, dry, and windy conditions are expected today as an inside slider pattern sets up over the next couple of days. A upper level trough currently digs into the Great Basin, drifting eastwards into the Four Corners states over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, an upper level high builds in the eastern Pacific, driving a pressure gradient that will build gusty north to northwest winds across the region today. Gusts will top out around 25 to 35 mph for the valleys, while coastal areas and the higher elevations will see gusts generally in the 40 to 50 mph range. Overnight, expect wind gusts to relax in the valleys with the surface layer decoupling from the flow aloft, but strong gusts will persist across the coastal and high elevation areas. In fact, wind gusts in the highest peaks and ridges may increase as a surface high pressure system reinforces the pressure gradient, with gusts approaching 60 mph during the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning.

On Friday, strong winds will continue across the region as the upper level trough splits into a weaker trough progressing through the upper Midwest and a cutoff low retrograding over the desert Southwest. Wind gusts should be similar to those seen today, with a more northerly component to the winds as the upper level flow shifts.

High temperatures today range from the lower to middle 60s at the lower elevations, to the upper 40s and 50s across the higher elevations. Morning lows on Friday will drop in the upper 30s to middle 40s away from the immediate coast as clear skies enhance radiational cooling, where temperatures will bottom out at the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Friday's highs will benefit from the turning of the winds as temperatures warm to the upper 60s to middle 70s in the lower elevations, to the middle 50s to middle 60s in the higher elevations.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1229 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

Breezy and gusty winds will continue through Saturday as a cut-off low traverses the northern end of Baja California and pauses just off the coast. Thus, the winds are expected to veer to the northeast Friday night into Saturday, enhancing the warm and dry conditions across the region. Breezy winds are still possible, particularly in the North Bay interior mountains, but the general trend is for winds to begin decreasing across the Bay Area and especially the Central Coast. Through the weekend, the eastern Pacific high diminishes, allowing the winds to relax on Sunday. However, residual offshore flow will allow the warming trend to continue, and Sunday should see the warmest temperatures of the forecast period with high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s at the immediate coastline, while the inland valleys see high temperatures in the upper 70s and perhaps the lower 80s in some of the warmer spots.

The cut-off low begins to weaken and drift eastwards in the early part of next week, allowing for onshore flow to return and causing a slight cooling trend, although high temperatures remain above seasonal averages as highs reach the lower to middle 70s in the inland valleys and the lower to middle 60s along the coast. Clouds may return to the region as the upper level flow shifts to a more zonal pattern, but no rain is in sight for the foreseeable future, including beyond the 7-day forecast as CPC outlooks lean towards the combination of temperatures above seasonal averages and precipitation totals below seasonal averages towards the middle of March.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 912 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026

The ACV-SFO pressure gradient is 7.8 mb while the SFO-SAC pressure gradient is 1.0 mb. It's a high confidence VFR forecast due to dry air over the forecast area with exception of occasional upslope cooling and radiative cooling combining to form patchy low clouds mainly away from the terminals.

Part of the surface high pressure will enter into the Great Basin tonight and Friday helping to diminish surface/valley winds while shifting the winds to a northeast direction. Breezy to gusty northeast winds Friday will favor the hills and mountains, with some vertical mixing to the valley floors and the coastline possible during maximum diurnal surface warming Friday afternoon to early evening. Will monitor observations and pilot reports for potential low level wind shear (llws), however at the moment llws is not indicated in the TAFs.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West-northwest wind diminishing and becoming light northeast Friday morning. Surface wind shifting back to northwest to west late Friday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. West-northwest winds diminishing and shifting to east-southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight and Friday morning. West-northwest winds near 10 knots developing Friday afternoon.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 848 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026

Strong winds with gale force gusts persists across much of the waters into Friday. These winds will build very rough seas of 12 to 15 feet. Conditions will gradually improve through the weekend as winds diminish and seas subside. Winds build again into the next work week with seas building shortly after.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.