textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week

- Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday

- Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week

UPDATE

Issued at 821 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026

No update to the forecast necessary this morning. A Fire Weather Watch was issued overnight for the North Bay interior mountains where very dry and windy conditions tonight through Friday morning will promote rapid spread of any fire ignitions. Winds at the highest spots are already sustained at 30+ MPH with little to no overnight relative humidity recovery last night. RH values this morning are generally in the 20-30% range, and expected to be in the teens by later today. The decision on whether to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning will be made this afternoon with the scheduled forecast update. There are pockets of moderate HeatRisk this afternoon with the warming temperatures, mainly in the North Bay and East Bay. More widespread HeatRisk is in store for Friday, including many coastal areas as offshore flow continues to work against the marine layer.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Tonight through Friday)

Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations, particularly the North Bay Interior Mountains, through Friday. A positively tilted upper level ridge remains over Oregon and Northern/Central California while a cut-off low lingers over Southern California. This setup promotes light to moderate offshore winds across the region with the potential for more moderate to gusty offshore winds across the higher elevations. Model guidance keeps gusts across the elevated terrain peaking between 20 to 30 mph with locally stronger gusts possible across the highest peaks (e.g. Mt. St. Helena). The GFS and HRRR are both in agreement that the SFO- WMC gradient will peak around -9 mb Thursday morning and -10 mb Thursday night into Friday. The NAM continues to be an outlier and suggests the gradient could peak around -14 mb but looking closer into their forecast wind gusts still keeps gusts in a similar, but slightly stronger range, of 25 to 35 mph. Very dry conditions are expected across the higher elevations during both the daytime and overnight hours. Much of the region will see daytime RH in the 10s to 20s with poor to very poor overnight recoveries with the worst recoveries across the higher elevations. Given the very dry conditions and potential for offshore winds, any spark has the potential to start a fire. Remember, one less spark one less wildfire.

Warmer temperatures continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to low 90s on Thursday and upper 80s to 90s on Friday. Patchy Moderate HeatRisk is expected on Thursday but becomes more widespread across urban areas on Friday. If you are outdoors during peak heating, make sure you are drinking plenty of water and taking frequent breaks in the shade. The marine layer remains mixed out through the short term due to the presence of the ridge so expect

LONG TERM

Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

Offshore winds decrease by Friday afternoon/evening as upper level ridging weakens and broad troughing returns to the region. High temperatures Saturday will still be warm in the 80s to low 90s but cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. By Sunday, broad troughing returns to the region with temperatures cooling into the 70s to low 80s. Fall weather returns in force next week as we get our first potential rainmaker of the season. This low pressure system looks to originate from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring much cooler, moister air into the region as the surface low weakens and moves into California next week. Highs will be seasonal to below normal in the 60s to low 70s across the interior and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase Tuesday through late week with wetting rains (>0.10") likely across the Central Coast and potentially Santa Cruz County/the South Bay. Light rain is possible across the rest of the Bay Area but does not look to meet wetting rain criteria at this time. Guidance is showing a low (<10%) chance of thunderstorms next week so that will be something to keep an eye on as this event gets closer in time. &&

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026

High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period regionwide as high pressure builds in over the region. Light/variable to offshore winds prevail early this morning but are likely to return onshore by early-to-mid afternoon. However, onshore wind speeds will be weaker than previous days.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light/variable winds persist early this morning and are forecast to become weak offshore and persist through about 22Z when they turn more onshore. Winds ease overnight and become weak offshore again Friday morning. Onshore winds are again forecast by Friday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Typical drainage winds (southeasterly) prevail at SNS with onshore winds expected to return regionwide early afternoon. Winds ease after sunset and become light/variable overnight into Friday morning.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Moderate seas prevail across the outer waters, while the inner waters experience slight to moderate seas through Friday night. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which will be accompanied with rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 547 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A Fire Weather Watch was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains and will go into effect later this evening and run through Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 14 to 24 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions.

Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Fire Weather Watch from 10 PM PDT this evening through Friday morning for CAZ504.

PZ...None.