textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 234 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Minor coastal flooding at high tide for the Bayshore through this evening.

- Hazardous beach conditions late tonight through Tuesday evening

- Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through Thursday

- Light rain for the Bay Area and Santa Cruz County Tuesday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026 (This evening through Monday night)

An upper level low and associated cold front worked its way through the region this morning. Behind it a mix of sun and clouds, with cool temperatures peaking in the 60s for interior valley locations, upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, and mid 50s to low 60s in the hills and mountains. As the sunsets, cumulus clouds should dissipate and onshore winds will ease. Guidance tonight shows high clouds moving in, which makes the forecast a bit interesting. Current thinking is that these will roll in and limit radiational cooling and radiational fog development. Kept the shot for patchy fog in the forecast for the interior valleys of the Bay Area, but it will be dependent on cloud cover and winds. High pressure continues to build in on Monday which will lead to slightly warmer temperatures and dry weather.

LONG TERM

Issued at 234 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)

A quick moving shortwave trough will bring light rain to Bay Area and Santa Cruz on Tuesday, with perhaps some showers making into northern Monterey and San Benito counties. Rainfall amounts look to be light and generally around 0.15-0.40" for the North Bay, and 0.05- 0.25" for the San Francisco Peninsula, East Bay, and Santa Cruz, and around 0.0-0.10" for Santa Clara County. south of that amounts in Monterey and San Benito are generally a couple hundredths of an inch or less. Once the this shortwave moves through, we'll see a mix of zonal flow and ridging builds behind it. This will lead to a warming and drying trend through the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

Satellite imagery shows VFR conditions, the cold front out of our region, and cumulus clouds left in its wake mainly south of the North Bay and most prevalent over the terrain. A few isolated showers remain over the waters, though a few may skirt along the Big Sur coastline through the early afternoon. Expect onshore winds for much of the region, with winds becoming light and southerly to variable overnight. Generally think VFR conditions should prevail, with some high clouds trying to sneak in early Monday morning. Should we keep enough breaks in the clouds, or they don't manifest, we could see some pockets of fog in the North Bay valleys. Moderate to high confidence in the forecast.

Vicinity of SFO...Generally VFR conditions should prevail around SFO, with some cumulus clouds bubbling up along the nearby terrain. Winds should switch onshore by the afternoon, with perhaps a few gusts to 20-23kt this afternoon. Winds decrease after sunset, cumulus clouds should dissipate, with weak onshore flow overnight. Winds should shift to the south early Monday morning. Moderate to high confidence in the forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Mainly VFR conditions should prevail today, as northwest winds lead to lingering cu over the region. Showers should hold for a few hours over the coastal waters, and may skirt the Big Sur Coastline. Otherwise dry conditions prevail and onshore winds return this afternoon. We may see some gusts to 15-20kt around KMRY and KSNS through the early evening. Winds then weaken, with south to southeast flow expected by Monday morning. Moderate to high confidence in the forecast.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 851 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

Rain showers generally south of Pigeon Point will continue this morning and then taper out by the early afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds have generally shifted to the north and northwest behind the front, though some fresh to strong gusts will linger through the afternoon and evening hours. Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected and will ease from north to south. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will prevail, building to become rough in the outer waters Tuesday into Wednesday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 506-508-529-530.

Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.