textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday evening and again Thursday through Saturday

- Rain showers taper off this afternoon and evening

- Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek; warming trend and above normal temps late week into weekend

- Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026 (This evening through tonight)

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an area of low pressure moving into our northern outer waters, just outside of 60nm and west of Sonoma COunty. THe main band of rain has pushed inland with showers lingering behind it. More to the west, where the low is, cumulus clouds are forming along the cold front. Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis page, just next to that region it shows around 100-150 J/kg of CAPE and some shear. The other convective parameters are not as favorable such as positive LI and the lapse rates becoming more stable. Think that these conditions will generally hold for the afternoon as cloud cover filled ahead of the front. An isolated rumble of thunder or two is possible over the waters, but generally the thunder chance is less than 10%. Instead, we'll likely see additional rainshowers activity as the front approaches. Precip chances taper off this evening, with dry weather expected for most areas by the late evening or early hours of Wednesday morning. Behind the front, look for clear skies tonight and near seasonal low temperatures.

LONG TERM

Issued at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026 (Wednesday through next Monday)

Wednesday, high pressure builds into the region leading to a stretch of warmer and drier weather. Wednesday will be the start of the warming trend; however, we'll still be leaning seasonable to seasonably cool. Thursday into the weekend, high temperatures slowly climb leading to temperatures becoming unseasonably warm by the weekend where temperatures could be 10 to 15 degrees above their normals.

In addition to that, tides continue to trend on the higher end. Opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for the San Francisco Bayshorelines from 6AM Wednesday through 1PM MOnday. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected during this time frame.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 359 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

With the upper low moving through, low clouds and showers /VFR-MVFR/ will linger through the evening. Any clearing tonight will result in radiative cooling and patchy fog /IFR-LIFR/ tonight and Wednesday morning. Dry Wednesday with VFR.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Lingering showers this evening otherwise dry later tonight and Wednesday. Southwest wind near 10 knots becoming easterly 5 to 8 knots mid to late evening then northwest to west 10 to 14 knots Wednesday morning and afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR with low clouds and lingering showers this evening otherwise dry later tonight and Wednesday. Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable tonight and Wednesday morning, then onshore 5 to 10 knots Wednesday afternoon and early evening.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 353 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low pressure will move east of the area tonight and become replaced by a high pressure system through the week. Winds will become northerly Wednesday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through the weekend. Dry conditions expected Wednesday into early next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Tuesday as long period (15-19 second) northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may linger into Wednesday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach Hazards Statement.

Sarment

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM PST Monday for CAZ006-506-508.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0- 10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.