textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Rain showers with a slight chance for embedded thunderstorms today

- Unsettled weather returns Saturday and persists into next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 (Today and tonight)

A gale force low pressure system off the Central Coast will ride northward, parallel to the California Coast today. It will weaken as it does so, allowing the pressure gradient to relax and southerly winds to relatively diminish. Rain showers with a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms will continue today. The three ingredients needed for a thunderstorm of lift, instability, and moisture will all be in place, even if the instability and moisture are on the low end. The low shear environment and nearly uni-directional wind profile will result in a low potential for any kind of rotation. Impacts wise, drivers can expect slick roadways and ponding on roadways. If a thunderstorm were to develop, lightning, locally heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding, pea size hail, and erratic/gusty winds are all potential hazards.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)

Dry conditions and near normal temperatures return Thursday and persist into Friday as the surface low dissipates and surface high pressure builds into the West. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that upper-level heights will begin falling Saturday. Upper-level longwave troughing will develop off the West Coast and be the primary driver of the weather for the rest of the long term. ECMWF Ens and GFS Ens are in agreement that an upper-level low gets pinched off the longwave trough and a surface low develops by Saturday. There is uncertainty after the weekend stemming from the progression and strength of the low feature. While confidence is still high that it will rain from Saturday on, there is about a half an inch of spread each day of Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The official total rainfall forecast seems to be beneficial right now with no mainstem river flooding expected, largely in part to the recent dry spell. Winds will also increase Sunday into next week with low probabilities (less than 20%) for gusts in excess of 45 mph.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 343 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

A low pressure system offshore of the Bay Area is bringing multiple rounds of scattered showers to the region this morning. Airports may experience temporary breaks in rainfall but the overarching conditions through Thursday morning are expected to be rainy. This is additionally resulting in ceiling heights temporarily dropping to MVFR conditions from VFR. Temporary MVFR CIGs are most likely to develop this morning with CIGs to rise this afternoon/evening. Easterly to southeasterly winds prevail for much of the TAF period. Winds initially start out gustier (20-30 knots) before decreasing to around 10 knots by Wednesday afternoon/evening with winds decreasing further overnight. There is a slight (15-20%) chance of thunderstorms late this morning into the afternoon as the next round of showers pushes into the South Bay and Central Coast. Confidence was too low to include in TAF but cannot fully rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing.

Vicinity of SFO...Isolated showers continue to impact SFO with temporary reductions in visibility and ceiling heights expected as showers move over the airport. Gusts to around 25 knots are expected during the day before winds ease overnight. Confidence is low that MVFR CIGs will return this afternoon/evening but LAMP guidance shows that there is a chance for MVFR CIGs to last for much of the day. Scattered showers continue through Thursday morning before drier conditions return.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered showers moving into the Monterey Peninsula are resulting in temporarily lowered CIGs and locally gustier winds in the Salinas Valley. Scattered showers continue through Thursday morning with rain chances decreasing by late Thursday morning. Gusts peak between 20 to 25 knots this morning/afternoon before diminishing this evening. Confidence is low that MVFR CIGs will persist but cannot rule out temporary CIG height decreases if a stronger shower moves over the airport.

MARINE

(Today through Monday) Issued at 343 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

Gusty winds continue through late morning before diminishing. Gale force gusts remain possible across the inner coastal waters through late this morning. Winds will generally be out of east to southeast but will remain variable through Thursday thanks to a low pressure system linger offshore of California. Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms persist through early Thursday. Moderate seas continue before seas increase and unsettled weather returns over the weekend as the next storm system approaches.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for CAZ516>518- 528-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.