textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 129 AM PDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Cooler conditions with light rain through Thursday.

- Above normal temperatures and offshore flow return Friday and continue into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 129 AM PDT Tue Mar 31 2026 (Today and tonight)

An upper level disturbance brings light rain, cloudy skies, and cooler temperatures. In terms of chances for rain we flirt at about 10-20% chance this morning before sunrise to 30-50% by mid to late morning. Though a 60-80% chance will be possible for the coastal mountains of the Central COast. Even with those higher amounts, rainfall amounts today look to be around a 0.10" or less across the region. Tonight, conditions dry out with the next round of rain moving in by mid Wednesday.

LONG TERM

Issued at 129 AM PDT Tue Mar 31 2026 (Wednesday through Monday)

The next chance for rain arrives mid Wednesday and wraps up by Thursday morning. With this system rainfall amounts have trended notably higher, particularly over the North Bay. Amounts for the mountains now range between 0.25-0.60" while the valley is 0.05- 0.25". From the San Francisco Peninsula down to Santa Cruz the amounts range from 0.10-0.35", while the East and South Bay amounts are closer to 0.05-0.15". For interior Monterey and San Benito counties amounts are generally around 0-.10", while the Santa Lucia may see up to 0.20".

By mid Thursday, upper level ridging builds over the Eastern Pacific, while the upper level trough that tracked over the PacNW moves into Intermountain West and deepens. This will lead to some to conditions drying out on Thursday and a period of offshore flow on Friday. The strongest winds, where gusts of up to 30-45 mph for favored gaps, ridges, and mountains, will be observed across interior North Bay Mountains and East and South Bay mountains. Temperatures will also begin to warm on Friday, with the warming and drying trend continuing into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 442 AM PDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Light rain is moving through the Bay Area and will continue on and off for much of the TAF period. Winds are locally gusty as showers move through and temporary MVFR CIGs are possible. There is the potential for a brief break in showers this afternoon before showers return overnight but they are still expected to remain light. Winds shift southerly this evening into the overnight hours ahead of a weak cold front moving through on Wednesday. Moderate confidence in MVFR CIGs arriving this evening/overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...Scattered showers are bringing locally gusty winds and temporary MVFR CIGs. There is some potential for gusts to around 20 knots through 18Z but confidence is low to moderate. The first round of rain looks to go through late morning before conditions briefly improve during the afternoon/evening. The next round of rain arrives overnight into Wednesday. Rain totals will be light but may be enough to make portions of the road slick.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Initial showers are not expected to impact MRY/SNS but there is some potential late morning into the afternoon for light rain to move over the Monterey Peninsula. Confidence is slightly higher that precipitation will reach MRY/SNS tonight rather than this morning. MVFR CIGs return tonight and continue into the overnight hours as the next round of rain approaches. Winds gradually shift more southerly tonight into tomorrow ahead of cold frontal passage.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 442 AM PDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Moderate seas through Wednesday will build and become moderate rough Thursday and Friday. Fresh southwesterly breezes will develop overnight and persist Tuesday and Wednesday out ahead of a cold front. Locally stronger gusts are possible as showers move over the coastal waters early Tuesday morning. Behind the cold front, strong to near gale force northerly winds develop, resulting in widespread hazardous conditions for small craft Thursday and Friday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.