textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 908 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

- Strong northerly winds will bring widespread hazardous marine and beach conditions through Wednesday morning

- Cooler, unsettled weather conditions remain possible through Thursday

- Warming and drying trend Friday through Monday

UPDATE

Issued at 908 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

Overnight and this morning, drizzle and light rain fell across the region. This is as a frontal boundary move through early this morning and continues to shift southward across Monterey and San Bentio continues. As such, rainfall amounts across the region have largely been less than 0.05". However, up to around 0.10"-0.20" has been reported along the San Francisco and Monterey peninsulas. The diver of this frontal boundary, the mid/upper level cut-off low, will linger through Thursday. This will allow for cooler, unsettled weather conditions to persist through Thursday before a warming and drying trend resumes by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Please see the previous short term forecast for more on the winds!

RGass

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026 (Today and tonight)

Tuesday's weather will be brought to you by a cold front. The associated lift has already done a number on the marine layer, making it too diffuse to support itself. Drizzle/light rain will be possible along and ahead of the cold front, especially along the coast and in the higher terrain with the help of orographic lift. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by clear skies and strong northerly winds. Widespread hazardous conditions for small craft are expected with gale force winds for the inner waters and Monterey Bay. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected with isolated gusts up to 50 mph across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026 (Wednesday through Monday)

The associated upper-level trough will dig into California, becoming a cutoff low Wednesday that is expected to remain near-stationary through Thursday. As such, Wednesday and Thursday will be very similar with below normal temperatures and diurnal winds. Of more interest and potential impact is the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. They will both rely on daytime heating as a trigger with accumulation dependent on where they develop. Chances are low (less than 15%) for thunderstorms with the relatively best chances for the far interior. The question is going to be if lift, instability, and moisture can overlap spatially and temporally. Conditionally unstable lapse rates will yield low CAPE on Wednesday. With PWAT values near average (0.60 inches) then, moisture will likely be the limiting factor. By Thursday, PWAT values increases to near one inch as the low drifts off the coast of the Bay Area; at the same time, the atmosphere begins to restabilize likely making instability the limiting factor for thunderstorms on Thursday. New wildfire starts will be a potential hazard due to fuels being about a month ahead of schedule. The low is expected to fill and become an open wave by Friday, leaving the region under zonal flow. A much warmer and drier airmass arrives over the weekend with upper-level longwave ridging moving in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

MVFR-VFR with a general decrease in cloud cover today then increasing cloud cover with a few areas of light rain possible over the north Central Coast Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind gusting to 35 knots through 05z this evening, wind diminishing to 10 to 20 knots tonight and Wednesday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The post frontal environment is bringing VFR conditions through the day into the evening. Moderate onshore breezes (12-15 kts) prevail through the TAF period with wind gusts up to 30 kts. Around 02-03Z Wednesday, MVFR ceilings begin to develop and deepen over the terminals. Moderate, gusty winds are expected to diminish late Tuesday night into the overnight hours and become more gentle (5-10kts). There may be some passing light rain early Wednesday morning (12Z) at both terminals, though it is not expected to be impactful if any develops.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1039 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

Fresh northwest winds will develop with widespread strong to gale force gusts over the coastal waters today. Gusty winds will develop over the bays as well. Rough seas will build to between 12 to 15 feet today into late week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.