textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 303 AM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Cold to very cold conditions during the overnight periods Thursday night and Friday night

- Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind through the long term forecast period

SHORT TERM

Issued at 303 AM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 (Today and tonight)

Isolated rain showers continue across the marine zones and Central Coast with the help of surface troughing. These rain showers will be unimpactful and are expected to wane by sunrise. It is going to be a cold start to the morning, so be sure to grab some extra layers on your way out the door! The 00Z sounding observed an 850 millibar temperature of -1.75 degrees Celsius which is below the tenth percentile (-0.5 degrees Celsius) for the date and time. While it is going to be cold, we are not expecting any records to be tied or broken. Probably of more interest (and relief) in the short term is that it is going to be dry as high pressure noses in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Maximum temperatures will warm to 10 degrees below normal today with another cold night on tap. Precautions should be taken to protect people, pets, and plants.

LONG TERM

Issued at 303 AM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 (Saturday through Thursday)

Unsettled weather will return this weekend as the region gets skirted by a couple passing low pressure systems in the Pacific Northwest. Light rain showers will return to the North Bay Saturday morning with drizzle possible for locations farther south. More impactful will be the wind with southerly gusts up to 45 mph possible along the coast and in the higher terrain. Probabilities are low to moderate (less than 50% chance) and are across a small area, thus a Wind Advisory is not warranted at this time. The weekend will be your best bet to clean up any damage that occurred this week and prepare for next week's weather. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement of upper-level ridging across the Intermountain West and upper-level troughing off the Pacific Northwest Coast with heights rising at least through Monday. Another developing surface low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest will source moisture from the tropics with ECMWF and GEFS IVT ensemble mean peaking near 500 kg/ms by Tuesday. Southwesterly flow (from the tropics) will allow for efficient rainfall due to the fetch of moist, warm air. As a result, southwest facing terrain will have the highest accumulation with the help of orographic lift with the lee side valleys experiencing the rain shadow effect. Fortunately, the trend has been our friend with all of the above systems trending farther north between forecasts which will allow for a reprieve between the deluge that we have experienced the past week. As the forecast looks right now, the Monday into Tuesday system will bring widespread rainfall. Minor flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas will be possible with ponding and slick roadways a guarantee. Mainstem river flooding is not expected with a low probability (less than 20%) of occurrence.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 341 AM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

A few lingering isolated showers continue to reach the north Central Coast this morning, otherwise VFR is forecast.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light northwest to northeast wind today, light and variable tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Southeast winds 5 to 12 knots today, becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots mid to late afternoon then light and variable to southeast 5 to 10 knots tonight.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 303 AM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

Winds will shift to southerly and increase over the weekend, the strongest winds across the northern waters. Rough to very rough seas redevelop by late weekend into early next week. Rain chances return Saturday and continue into early to mid next week.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1047 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026

The following are the record low temperatures at the long term sites for Friday, Feb 20th.

Location Record Low

Santa Rosa 26 in 1913 Kentfield 27 in 1913 San Rafael 32 in 2018, 2006 Napa 27 in 2018 Richmond 35 in 1990 Livermore 27 in 2018 San Francisco 38 in 1897 SFO Airport 36 in 2018 Redwood City 30 in 1933 Half Moon Bay 28 in 2018 Oakland Museum 36 in 2011 San Jose 30 in 1897 Salinas Airport 28 in 1953

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ502-503- 505-508-512-513-528-529.

Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ504-506- 510-514>518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.