textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 239 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Widespread rain arrives this afternoon and evening with showers persisting through Thursday morning.

- Strong south winds this evening into Wednesday morning with gusts of 40-50 mph along the Big Sur coast and higher terrain in Monterey and San Benito Counties.

- General risk of thunderstorms this evening through Wednesday with chances for lightning, localized gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rain.

- Break in rain chances midday Thursday through Saturday before a colder and wetter pattern returns Sunday into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 712 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026

Rain showers continue across the region with only a few lightning flashes observed in the last few hours. Strong southerly winds will continue into the night, especially along the Big Sur Coast and in the higher terrain of the Central Coast where gusts of 45 mph are expected. Impacts from the rain are expected to be minimal with ponding on roadways and slick roadways the most likely result. Thunderstorm impacts are lightning, locally heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding, pea size hail, and erratic/gusty winds. If you are driving, ensure that your headlights are on and your cruise control is off. Remember: when thunder roars, go indoors! and see a flash, dash inside!

Sarment

SHORT TERM

Issued at 239 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 (This afternoon through Wednesday)

Initial rain bands moving onshore as of 2 pm with early reports of a tenth or less for most of the coastline and locally up to 0.20 for the hills above Big Sur. These values will continue to increase over time as the low offshore continues to spread rain bands over the region. The surface low is currently around 1002 mb and located 200 miles west of Point Piedras Blancas. The HRRR model is taking the surface low on a northeast trek towards Pt Reyes by around midnight or early tomorrow morning. The southerly winds around the low will be strongest over the southern coastal waters where Gale warnings are in effect. Wind Advisories officially go into effect for Monterey and San Benito counties from 4 pm this afternoon through 4 am Weds. So far we have seen gusts in the 35-40 mph range for coastal Monterey county and the higher terrain of San Benito county with gusts to around 30 mph in Santa Cruz county. For the most part not expecting advisory level winds for the greater Bay Area. The steep lapse rates and unstable air aloft keep the slight chance of thunder in the forecast overnight but haven't seen any flashes over the last several hours. It appears as though the initial push of rain has stabilized the lower levels with temperatures now falling into the mid 50s where rain is falling.

On Wednesday the main low will wobble just offshore in the vicinity of the Farallone Islands. Winds wont be much of a concern with periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Daytime highs will continue to be cool with mostly cloudy skies and rain dragging cold air aloft down to the surface. For the most part we expect beneficial rains for this event with storm totals by Thursday morning of 2-3 inches Santa Cruz/Santa Lucia mountains and 0.50-1.00 most of the lower elevations except 0.25 on average for the drier rain shadowed valleys such as Salinas and Livermore.

LONG TERM

Issued at 239 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

Shower activity should more or less end for the North Bay by Weds night as the low slowly drifts southward. There will be lingering showers for the Bay Area Weds night with the final showers ending for the Central Coast by around sunrise Thursday morning. Dry but cool Thursday afternoon with lingering afternoon cumulus given the proximity of the upper low and cool/unstable air still aloft over the region.

High pressure noses over Northern California Friday and Saturday with a return to dry weather and seasonable temps for mid February.

Rain chances could return as early as Saturday night but more likely Sunday as a cold trough drops down form the Gulf of Alaska. Periods of rain become likely later Sunday into Monday. The source region suggests no main stem flooding concerns (i.e. its not an atmospheric river) but rather beneficial February rains with some unusually low snow levels a possibility. A first estimate of 1-3 inches of rainfall later Sunday into Monday with another system possible by Tues/Weds and then again Friday of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026

Unsettled weather will continue across the region this evening as a low pressure system spinning off the coast moves inland. This system will bring periods of light to moderate rain through tonight. Anticipate moderate to strong gusty southerly winds over the Monterey Bay region, moderate and gusty east to southeast winds for much of the Bay Area, and moderate east to northeasterly winds for the North Bay. Cigs will gradually decrease through the evening and into tonight as the low approaches from the west resulting in scattered areas of MVFR. Rain chances will persist beyond the current TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Northeasterly winds will veer increasingly to the Southeast this evening as the low pressure approaches. Rain will turn to showers overnight with some breaks likely. Rain will continue into Wednesday with moderate and gusty southerly winds.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate and gusty east to southeasterly winds and rain will continue through this evening and into tonight with period of MVFR cigs possible with the passage of heavier showers. Rain will continue into Wednesday with moderate and gusty southerly winds.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 245 PM PST Tue Feb 10 2026

Southerly winds have increased ahead of low pressure with gale force gusts possible south of Pigeon Point through Wednesday morning, with the highest confidence between Point Sur and Point Piedras Blancas. This system will bring along with periods of rain as well as chances for thunderstorms Tuesday evening through early Thursday. Swells will stay mostly moderate in the mid week, but increase into the weekend as the next rain system approaches.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ516>518-528-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.