textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.

- Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.

- Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the week with seasonable June temperatures.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (This evening through Wednesday)

Morning stratus and fog has retreated back to the coastal areas early this afternoon with mostly sunny skies over much of the CWA. The marine layer remains around 100-1500 feet and should reamin in that range tomorrow. With a similar marine layer expected tomorrow an extensive area of stratus and fog, similar to this morning, is expected tomorrow morning. Stratus will start to move back inland around or a few hours prior to sunset tonight.

High pressure remains in place over Western CONUS with H5 heights (590-592 dm) similar to slightly higher than that of yesterday. With similar H5 heights temperatures this afternoon will be around, or a few degrees warmer than yesterday's afternoon high temperatures. Inland areas are forecasted to see afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s with coastal areas seeing highs in the 60s to low 70s. These temperatures will lead to widespread Minor HeatRisk, with localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Make sure to continue to practice smart heat safety (especially if you're more sensitive to the heat) by limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade (if outdoors), and staying hydrated.

Tomorrow the high pressure system will start to break down leading to the beginning of our upcoming cooling trend, especially for inland areas. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be around 2-5 degrees cooler tomorrow across the inland areas. Similar temperatures are expected along the coast due to the influence of the marine layer (which will be similar to today's).

Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell continues, which increases the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean!

LONG TERM

Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Thursday through next Tuesday)

On Thursday the aforementioned ridge will continue to break down with a weak upper level trough moving into the Eastern Pacific. This trough will then move across the region Friday and Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances with this trough will reamin in the higher terrain to the north and east of the CWA. Our area will remain dry with the exception of some areas of drizzle off the coast early Friday. Additionally this trough will cause a cooling trend as the marine layer deepens allowing for the cooler marine air to migrate further inland leading to cooler temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be in the 70s to low 80s, which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Weak troughing continues over the region on Sunday, with ridging starting to push back into our area early next week leading to a warming trend, especially for the inland areas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 411 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

MVFR-IFR stratus has retreated to the coastal regions, and breezy onshore flow with a southerly component will continue into the evening hours. Stratus will expand again through the evening hours and cover most of the terminals tonight, with moderate to high confidence that LVK will remain VFR through the night. Stratus retreats back to the immediate coast Wednesday morning, with the breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon, again with a southerly component as a mesoscale low develops off the North Bay coastline.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR conditions continue through the evening with moderate to fresh northwest winds. MVFR-IFR stratus will come in through the evening and early overnight period with moderate confidence on the timing of stratus impacts, with the potential for stratus to come over the terminal a couple of hours earlier than the current forecast. Will monitor conditions throughout the night. Stratus will clear out through Wednesday morning with breezy west winds resuming in the afternoon. A low confidence of stratus impacts on Wednesday evening, but most model output puts the stratus impacts past the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Stratus may impact the approach path a little later than at the terminal tonight. Otherwise similar to SFO.

Vicinity of OAK and SJC... VFR conditions continue for the next few hours with moderate northwest winds. MVFR-IFR stratus will build towards OAK early tonight and migrate towards SJC later on, with light winds overnight into Wednesday morning. Stratus should dissipate on Wednesday morning. At OAK, breezy northwest winds will resume Wednesday afternoon with a potential for stratus to build into the terminal by the evening hours. Confidence in the wind direction and speed is lower at SJC for Wednesday afternoon as the terminal sits between a northwest flow from SF Bay and downsloping winds from the Santa Cruz Mountains. May need to carefully monitor observations and future TAF updates through the day.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions through the next couple of hours with MVFR-IFR stratus building into the terminals rather early in the evening. Breezy northwest winds at SNS and southwest winds at MRY will continue into the evening hours. Stratus should pare itself back to the immediate coast through Wednesday morning as the breezy west to northwest winds resume in the afternoon.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 411 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Northerly winds will become fresh to strong for the northern outer waters resulting in hazardous seas this evening to tomorrow morning. However, a better onshore push will bring moderate to fresh winds for San Pablo and San Francisco Bays during the afternoon and evening hours, as well as near the coast from Point Sur north to Point Pinos. Otherwise, generally light to gentle winds to the weekend. Seas will remain slight to moderate to the weekend with a low south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.