textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1158 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026

- Cool and cloudy conditions with a chance for coastal and higher terrain drizzle through Tuesday morning

- Strong northerly winds will bring widespread hazardous marine conditions Tuesday

- Hazardous beach conditions at Pacific Coast beaches Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning

- Warming and drying trend Friday through Monday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026 (Today and tonight)

Tuesday's weather will be brought to you by a cold front. The associated lift has already done a number on the marine layer, making it too diffuse to support itself. Drizzle/light rain will be possible along and ahead of the cold front, especially along the coast and in the higher terrain with the help of orographic lift. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by clear skies and strong northerly winds. Widespread hazardous conditions for small craft are expected with gale force winds for the inner waters and Monterey Bay. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected with isolated gusts up to 50 mph across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026 (Wednesday through Monday)

The associated upper-level trough will dig into California, becoming a cutoff low Wednesday that is expected to remain near-stationary through Thursday. As such, Wednesday and Thursday will be very similar with below normal temperatures and diurnal winds. Of more interest and potential impact is the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. They will both rely on daytime heating as a trigger with accumulation dependent on where they develop. Chances are low (less than 15%) for thunderstorms with the relatively best chances for the far interior. The question is going to be if lift, instability, and moisture can overlap spatially and temporally. Conditionally unstable lapse rates will yield low CAPE on Wednesday. With PWAT values near average (0.60 inches) then, moisture will likely be the limiting factor. By Thursday, PWAT values increases to near one inch as the low drifts off the coast of the Bay Area; at the same time, the atmosphere begins to restabilize likely making instability the limiting factor for thunderstorms on Thursday. New wildfire starts will be a potential hazard due to fuels being about a month ahead of schedule. The low is expected to fill and become an open wave by Friday, leaving the region under zonal flow. A much warmer and drier airmass arrives over the weekend with upper-level longwave ridging moving in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 948 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026

A cold front is expected to move through the Bay Area and Central Coast tonight bringing ceilings that are on the border of MVFR/VFR. Moderate confidence that CIGs will continue to fluctuate between MVFR and VFR through at least 10Z in the Bay Area and 13/14Z in the Central Coast. CIGs generally clear out after frontal passage but winds will strengthen. Gusts peak between 25 to 35 knots tomorrow with winds out of the northwest. Gusts start to ease towards the end of the TAF period but will largely remain gusty into Tuesday night. Drizzle is likely along the coast again tonight (potentially reaching HAF, MRY, SNS) with models showing some potential for light rain as cold frontal passage occurs tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...CIGs stay on the MVFR/VFR border through 10Z with temporary fluctuations in CIG height up and down. Gusts increase after cold frontal passage early Tuesday morning with 30+ knot gusts expected during the day tomorrow. Winds ease slightly tomorrow night through the end of the TAF period but largely remain gusty.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs are fluctuating between MVFR and VFR with fluctuations to continue occurring through cold frontal passage (approx. 13-15Z). Gusts strengthen during the day with gusts peaking between 25-30 knots. Winds start to ease towards the end of the TAF period but remain gusty overall. Guidance shows some potential for stratus to return as early as 03Z with the potential for MVFR CIGs increasing between 03-06Z.

MARINE

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 247 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

A cold front continues to pass over the waters this morning leading to fresh west to northwest winds with widespread strong gusts expected over the waters. Winds shift northwesterly and continue to increase today into Wednesday. This results in strong to near gale force winds across the outer waters, gale force winds across the inner waters, and fresh to strong winds across the San Francisco Bay. Rough seas build to between 12 to 15 feet Tuesday into late week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 AM PDT this morning through Wednesday morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.