textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Hazardous beach conditions from swells through Saturday evening at Pacific Coast beaches.

- 20 to 40% chance of rain in the North Bay Sunday night.

- Better chances for rain middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 (Today through Saturday)

Recent KMUX imagery shows scattered returns moving northward over the Central Coast this morning. This is in response to mid level moisture moving northward along a passing upper level low that will travel southeastward over the ocean down the Central Coast today. No measurable precipitation is expected, but given that KMUX is getting some echos between 20-30 dBz, went ahead and threw in mention of isolated sprinkles down the Big Sur coast for this morning. Regardless, the vast majority of the area will remain dry, with only an increase in cloud cover today. However, that increased cloud cover will help minimize any valley fog this morning. Temperatures are expected to still climb just slightly above seasonal norms today, but with the increased cloud cover and cooler air moving in with the low, it should feel a little cooler compared to recently.

Weak ridging is expected to return tonight and into Saturday. This should help clear some of the skies out tonight which may allow for radiational fog development in valley locations. Otherwise, the cooler airmass should provide similar temperatures on Saturday with highs in the 60s and upper 50s/low 60s along the coastline.

LONG TERM

Issued at 115 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026 (Saturday Night through Thursday)

The pattern begins to shift on Sunday. While the weak ridge will remain in place over Central California during the day on Sunday, a longwave trough in the northeast Pacific will begin to make it slow movement southward down the British Columbia coastline. This wave will eventually send a couple of shorter waves that can provide additional chances for rain through the middle of next week.

The first weak short wave is expected to eject away from this parent wave and move over the Pacific northwest Sunday evening. With the majority of ensemble members continuing to highlight the higher QPF in the Pacific northwest, blended PoPs were adjusted down for Sunday evening to confine the highest chances (20 to 40 percent) to the North Bay. This left just a 15 to 20 percent chance that light rain makes it to the city of San Francisco with a less than 15 percent chance it makes it to the South Bay (and even then it probably would not reach the South Bay until around or after midnight). Regardless, the amount of rain is expected to be only a couple hundredths in the North Bay and less to the south.

Models are projecting a more stout shortwave trough to descend down the coastline Tuesday through Wednesday. Cluster analysis is highlighting that models are still struggling with the depth and track of the upper level trough. However, with increased moisture and better forcing, it looks like a better chance for rain across the forecast area. Higher coastal elevations could see over a quarter of an inch of rain, but inland areas could be impacted by the rain shadow and see much less. Lastly, a cooler air mass aloft will accompany this trough, allowing for temperatures next week to return to more seasonable norms.

Once that trough passes there could be a break in the precip toward the end of next week. However, models are keeping an active pattern aloft which may bring another rainy system to the area next weekend. It is still a little too early for the details, but something to certainly keep an eye on.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 942 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

Currently skies are a mostly SKC with a few sites seeing FEW-SCT at 9 kft or above. Winds AOB 10kts for most sites with VRB winds. Surface high pressure is just beginning to build in from the west, turning some sites NW. This trend will continue, with most terminals seeing NW winds this afternoon and evening, remaining AOB 10kts. Satellite shows some stratus off shore this afternoon. As onshore winds continue into the evening, marine stratus will eventually advect inland tonight into early Saturday morning. MVFR/IFR cigs will impact most terminals, trending more IFR after 12Z for North Bay and Bay Area terminals. Some chances for fog formation after 10Z over these terminals. Winds remain light, with directions becoming VRB during this time. Impacts will linger through the end of the period for most sites. Zooming in on North Bay Terminals; low clouds associated with the marine layer with high IFR / low MVFR ceilings move through the Petaluma Gap this evening, 01-03z Saturday. Clouds slowly progress into the North Bay Valleys through 06-08z with low to moderate confidence for patchy radiation fog to develop, generally after 11z, more likely around KSTS than KAPC, lowing visibility to 1/4-1SM locally. Visibility obscuration also expected where clouds meet terrain. Low clouds begin to retreat in the mid-morning Saturday.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence VFR will persist through 06Z with winds AOB 10kts. Onshore flow will eventually advect marine stratus inland after 06Z. Times of MVFR cigs through 10Z until skies become mostly OVC009. Some BR/FG possible from 12Z through 16Z, however vis should remain AOA 3SM. Winds remain light and VRB. Moderate confidence impacts will linger through 20Z, then skies should lift and scatter after.

SFO Bridge Approach...Some lingering HZ around Bay Area is seen this afternoon and could lower slant range visibilities near sunset. Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK... Increasing confidence with MVFR stratus moving in with onshore flow tonight and early Saturday morning. Lower confidence in IFR impacts from cigs/vis, especially down the Santa Clara Valley. Times for HZ/BR possible after 12Z, with vis likely remaining AOA 4SM.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through 00z Saturday. Low clouds with IFR/MVFR ceilings develop in the Monterey Bay and push onshore over coastal Monterey County (including KMRY and KSNS) around 01-03z this evening. Clouds gradually surge into the Salinas Valley tonight with low confidence for patchy fog formation (and visibility below 1SM) in the valley locally. Visibility obscuration also expected where clouds meet terrain. Otherwise, mist from the marine layer could lower visibility to 4-6SM in coastal areas. Clouds begin to scatter out around 17z Saturday morning.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 836 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

A light northwest wind will become more northerly this evening into tomorrow. Northerly winds will increase in the Northern Monterey Bay zone on Saturday morning, with seas then diminishing into Saturday evening. A cold front moves southeastward over the coastal waters and bays gradually during the day Sunday and Sunday night, resulting in an increase in north-northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 247 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026

A High Surf Advisory will be in effect beginning 4 AM PST today at all Pacific Coast beaches, the High Surf Advisory continues through 9 PM Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves 17 to 22 feet.

Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.