textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 901 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Sharp cool-down through early week

- Coastal flooding during high tides and large swell through Monday

- Beach Hazards until Monday evening

- Very light rain possible southernmost Monterey County Sunday- Monday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1154 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 (Tonight through Monday)

The northerly ACV-SFO pressure gradient has increased to 5.9 mb while the onshore SFO-SAC pressure gradient is 1.0 mb. Surface winds are largely gusty from the northwest over the coastal waters in response to the northerly pressure gradient, however wind favored gaps and passes mainly in the East Bay are indicating ongoing gusty winds as well. 24 hour temperature trends are mostly cooler across the forecast area as cold air advection is combining with nocturnal radiative cooling. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 60s/70s, warmest inland. Lows will be in the 40s/30s, coldest far inland valleys, except near 50 along the immediate coastline and bays.

Spotty very light measurable rain and/or drizzle (less than 0.10") is possible across southernmost Monterey County due to a surface to lower/mid level low pressure circulation (it will be weakening since surface pressures are forecast to increase) moving southward along the Big Sur coast Sunday night and Monday. Dry weather will prevail over most of the forecast area through early week.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1154 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday)

The forecast area will remain under cool and dry conditions Tuesday with a daytime warming trend developing mid to late week. Thursday to Saturday daytime highs are forecast to return above mid October normal with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. 500 mb ridging will advance eastward over our forecast area mid to late week, bringing a return to warmer daytime temperatures.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

MVFR ceilings already developed at HAF and MRY which is expected to be followed by SNS later tonight. Conditions are expected to improve early Sunday morning at these terminals. Everywhere else should remain VFR through the TAF cycle with a few to scattered stratocumulus decks. Light winds prevail overnight before increasing to moderate (10 to 15 kt) by Sunday afternoon. Low confidence for MVFR ceilings to return Sunday evening at coastal terminals, moderate confidence for VFR to continue to prevail elsewhere.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period with potential for some scattered decks overnight. These are expected to be short-lived, therefore they were not mentioned in the official TAF. Lower chance for gusty onshore winds Sunday afternoon as winds shift southwest to southerly post-sunset. Medium confidence on the exact timing of wind shifts.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions at MRY are expected to improve by Sunday morning. Low to medium confidence on exactly when MVFR ceilings impact SNS as they can roll in earlier than advertised. Overall, VFR prevails late Sunday morning as onshore winds increase to around 10-12 kt. Low confidence on whether MVFR stratus develops Sunday evening. If anything, it may be borderline MVFR-VFR.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Hazardous marine conditions persist through early next week. Fresh to strong northwest breezes are supporting rough to very rough seas across the coastal waters. Expect frequent gale force gusts north of Pigeon Point and near gale force gusts to the south. A low long period southerly swell and a moderate long period westerly swell combined with strong winds are contributing to a confused sea state.

BEACHES

Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Heading to the beach this weekend? The sun will be out, but beaches conditions will be less than ideal. A cold front will bring gusty winds over the coastal waters and nearby beaches. More importantly, the surf zone will remain very energetic. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves 13-16 feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!

MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.