textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1123 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Cool temperatures through Tuesday; warming trend and above normal temperatures starting mid to late week

- Coastal flooding during high tides through mid-week

- Hazardous beach conditions continue through Monday evening due to increased risk of sneaker waves, rip currents, and large breaking waves

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1123 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday)

Upper level troughing continues across the West Coast through mid- week before the trough progresses eastward. If you stepped outside today it likely felt like the first real breath of fall. Highs largely peaked in the 60s to low 70s Sunday. Temperatures ran about 5 to 10 degrees below normal today with the 850 mb temperature (9C at the 00Z launch) between the 10th and 25th percentiles. This trend continues Monday with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s and overnight lows (Monday morning) largely in the 40s. The exception will be across the higher elevations where a few locations may drop into the 30s. For comparison, we typically see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the interior this time of year. By Tuesday, the center of the upper level low will start to progress eastward while upper level ridging starts to rebuild along the coast. This will kick off a slight warming trend (2-4 degrees) and bring more interior locations into the low to mid 70s while coastal areas stay in the 60s. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be similar to Monday with lows in the 40s to low 50s across most of the region and pockets of 30s across the higher elevations.

Light rain is possible along the Big Sur Coast and southern Monterey County early Monday morning but no real accumulation is expected. More typical onshore winds return Monday as the SFO-WMC pressure gradient shifts positive (onshore) again. Diurnally breezy winds continue for favored locations (coastal areas, mountain gaps and passes) and over the marine environment. Fire weather concerns diminish Monday/Tuesday given the decreasing winds and improved daytime humidity values. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through 3PM Tuesday but may need to be extended into Wednesday for the entire bay shoreline. It will depend on how high tides get Monday/Tuesday and if tidal heights are trending down enough for the advisory to be expired on time Tuesday night.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1123 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Our brief glimpse of fall will quickly become a distant memory by late week as temperatures heat up again. The upper level trough continues to progress eastward Tuesday into Wednesday with upper level ridging becoming dominant Wednesday onwards. Much warmer temperatures are expected for the second half of the week with above normal temperatures returning Thursday into the weekend. Wednesday will be a transition day between cooler early week temperatures and hot late week temperatures with seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures anticipated. High temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal Thursday through Saturday. Interior locations will be in the 80s to 90s while coastal areas peak in the 70s to low 80s. Much drier conditions are expected late week with a return of daytime humidity values dropping into the 10s. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely late week as much warmer and drier conditions return. Fortunately, no major signals that winds will be gusty around this time which should help mitigate at least some of the risk. As always, if you are participating in an activity that involves fire or towing anything, make sure to prevent sparks from spreading as fuels are very dry/flammable. Moderate HeatRisk returns late week into the weekend so make sure to take breaks in the shade, drink plenty of water, and reduce time outdoors during peak heating.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period for most terminals due to drier airmass. Clear skies tonight will lead to some radiational cooling and possible fog (30-40%) for KSTS.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Diurnal wind pattern.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Diurnal wind pattern.

MARINE

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1030 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Improving conditions over the coastal waters today as winds continue to ease and overall seas state relaxes. However, fresh to strong breezes and elevated swell will bring hazardous conditions to smaller crafter over the outer waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 1031 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Compare to the last few days conditions along the coast are gradually improving as longer period swell trains are decreasing. However, buoy reports Monday morning continue to advertise moderate to longer period swells (albeit smaller heights) entering the coastal waters. As such, elevated surf zone conditions lingering. Additionally, moderate period west-northwest swell will arrive Monday afternoon lingering into Monday evening. As such, Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through this evening. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Never turn your back on the ocean!

MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.