textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Seasonally warm, dry conditions through midweek; unsettled weather returns late week into next week

- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

- Hazardous beach conditions continue through tonight and return late week into the weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1158 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026 (Tonight through Wednesday)

A very weak and dry 500 mb trough in the flow will pass to our east overnight. Slightly higher surface pressures will continue to build in over the coastal waters to far northern California into Tuesday morning. In the wake of the trough, 500 mb ridging will return Tuesday. 24 hours ago the surface pressure gradient was more susceptible to light land breezes i.e. cool air drainage winds mixing with higher dew point air (water vapor) resulting in fog to dense fog development. The potential is there for low clouds and fog through Tuesday morning, but if e.g. the SFO-SAC pressure gradient can hold onto a weak onshore direction this may help limit the areal coverage of fog and dense fog Tuesday morning. That is, sea surface warmth with a light onshore wind may help slow or reduce fog and dense fog coverage, except for inland valleys farthest removed from maritime influence. Otherwise a clear sky to daybreak Tuesday morning will allow radiative cooling. Will of course monitor satellite and observations and issue a dense fog advisory if needed.

Dry weather continues Tuesday through Veterans Day. Daytime highs Tuesday and Wednesday will continue slightly above normal with highs in the upper 60s at the coastline to the 70s and lower 80s inland. Night-time lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1158 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

Strong polar jet stream winds crossing the Pacific will move a 500 mb low toward southern California and northern Mexico Thursday through Friday. There's increasing confidence that a cold front with at least light to moderate rain will arrive in our forecast area Friday. Recent model forecasts show southerly to southwesterly winds increasing out ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Wet weather may impact the morning commute in the Bay Area, but right now chances look more favorable that the bulk of the rain (and wind) will arrive in the late morning through afternoon, something to keep in mind for the afternoon and possibly the evening commute. Rain totals at this time: 1" North Bay to 1/3" to 1/2" elsewhere across the rest of the forecast area.

A few showers linger Saturday. Another cold frontal passage Sunday brings another chance of rain. Cold upper level troughing with the potential for additional rain is forecast for late weekend and early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

The forecast seems to be on track this evening, as skies have cleared and satellite shows some fog developing over coastal Marin and just north of Half Moon Bay. More noticeable fog has developed up in Mendocino County and is slowly working its way south. Given the observations and the latest hi-res guidance opted to generally push back timing by several hours, closer to 10Z or 12Z. Models seem to be in agreement with widespread LIFR to IFR vis for KSTS, KOAK, and KSJC with some uncertainty for interior sites like KAPC and even KSFO. Still think that any fog that does form tonight should erode between 17-19Z. VFR conditions will prevail after that.

Vicinity of SFO...No major deviations from the prior TAF set as it appears to have captured the timing of any fog and low cloud development. Uncertainty remains if KSFO will fall below IFR vis/cigs, closer to quarter mile fog but there are signs of it. Hi- res guidance is split, with the more bullish models being the HRRR, REFS, and RRFS putting up to ranging 30-60% from 10-15Z. Clearing of any reduced vis or cig is expected by 19-20Z. Then VFR conditions prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Fog and low cloud look to develop around the Bay tonight, which should lead to LIFR to IFR cigs and vis. Development looks develop on the east side and gradually spreading around/across the rest of the Bay. Clearing should start occur around 17-18, with VFR conditions expected by 19- 20Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Weak offshore flow returns to the forecast tonight which should be enough to keep both KMRY and KSNS VFR. A few models still hint at a few hours of IFR cigs/vis possible at KSNS again. Kept the hint at any development in the TAF, with the return of onshore flow by the afternoon.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 857 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

Seas will continue to subside tonight, with the offshore waters becoming rough while nearshore waters become more moderate. These conditions will persist through Tuesday and most of Wednesday, with seas building late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds during this time frame moderate to fresh and from the north Tuesday before becoming gentle to moderate on Wednesday. The sea state becomes dynamic once again by the second half of the work week into next weekend with long period west/northwest swell up to 18 seconds late in the forecast period. Seas are expected to become very rough to high.

BEACHES

Issued at 857 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026

Beach Hazards:

The Beach Hazards Statement was allowed to expire this evening, as wave are gradually subsiding and there appears to be a brief lull in wave activity. However, spring tides are still occuring and will increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Forecasts show building waves and seas late Wednesday into Thursday morning, with additional additional swells impacting the coast this coming weekend. When visiting the beach, continue to practice beach safety. Remember, waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM/KR

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...None.