textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

SHORT TERM

Issued at 109 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (Today and tonight)

As a very weak front exits the area to the southeast, surface observations are showing winds becoming more northwesterly (except for a few localized terrain differences). With increased mid and upper level moisture, mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected through daybreak. This cloud deck and light winds around 5 mph should help suppress radiational fog development. However, patchy fog is still possible through daybreak this morning in the more traditional spots that are more sheltered from the wind. At the time, no advisory is expected, but will be monitored through the morning.

As zonal flow aloft sets up today, conditions should be fairly quiet. Temperatures are once again expected to climb into the 60s with coastal areas remaining in the low 60s (or even upper 50s). With increasing moisture aloft ahead of the next system, cloud cover will remain keeping low chances for any fog development overnight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will drop down to the low 50s along the coast and mid 40s for inland areas (with a chance of localized low 40s for far interior locations).

An upper level is expected to move from the north Central Pacific toward southern California today, inducing surface cyclogenesis out over the ocean this afternoon. Models are showing fairly good agreement that that surface low is expected to move toward Point Conception before taking a left turn tomorrow morning and head toward the Bay Area. It is this low that is expected to bring the widespread soaking rain to the area. While the rain shadow will be in effect, models continue to trend wetter with this low allowing most of the area to get something though there is still some uncertainty on exact amounts as this system starts to come into the range of high res guidance. But with decent forcing, a strong low level jet in the afternoon and orographic lift, the coastal areas will likely sees the highest rain totals. Rain rates could be up to 0.25" per hour in many of the stronger cells, with localized rates up to 0.50" per hour closer to the center of the low. Lastly, while instability is not overly strong, isolated thunder cannot be completely ruled out in the late afternoon and into Tuesday evening.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 109 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (Today and tonight)

As a very weak front exits the area to the southeast, surface observations are showing winds becoming more northwesterly (except for a few localized terrain differences). With increased mid and upper level moisture, mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected through daybreak. This cloud deck and light winds around 5 mph should help suppress radiational fog development. However, patchy fog is still possible through daybreak this morning in the more traditional spots that are more sheltered from the wind. At the time, no advisory is expected, but will be monitored through the morning.

As zonal flow aloft sets up today, conditions should be fairly quiet. Temperatures are once again expected to climb into the 60s with coastal areas remaining in the low 60s (or even upper 50s). With increasing moisture aloft ahead of the next system, cloud cover will remain keeping low chances for any fog development overnight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will drop down to the low 50s along the coast and mid 40s for inland areas (with a chance of localized low 40s for far interior locations).

An upper level is expected to move from the north Central Pacific toward southern California today, inducing surface cyclogenesis out over the ocean this afternoon. Models are showing fairly good agreement that that surface low is expected to move toward Point Conception before taking a left turn tomorrow morning and head toward the Bay Area. It is this low that is expected to bring the widespread soaking rain to the area. While the rain shadow will be in effect, models continue to trend wetter with this low allowing most of the area to get something though there is still some uncertainty on exact amounts as this system starts to come into the range of high res guidance. But with decent forcing, a strong low level jet in the afternoon and orographic lift, the coastal areas will likely sees the highest rain totals. Rain rates could be up to 0.25" per hour in many of the stronger cells, with localized rates up to 0.50" per hour closer to the center of the low. Lastly, while instability is not overly strong, isolated thunder cannot be completely ruled out in the late afternoon and into Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM

Issued at 109 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

There is still some disagreement in model guidance on the exact trend for the low, but most guidance as the low stalling out over the ocean just west of the Golden Gate and weakening Tuesday night through Wednesday. Rain will be come more scattered at times overnight into Wednesday with breaks developing. That being said, it looks Wednesday could be another wet day. With models still disagreeing with the track and trend for the low, there is lower confidence in the exact end time and could vary north to south across the forecast area, as well as coastal vs. inland. But there is a non-zero chance that light rain lingers through Thursday morning, but impacts should be minimal. Lastly, cooler air is expected to advect in behind the low. Temperatures will finally return back to seasonal normals with highs in the 50s (maybe touch low 60s?) and lows in the 40s.

Weak ridging Thursday into Friday morning should offer a brief respite from the rain. However, Models are still suggesting another upper level trough will move over the Bay Area and the Central Coast. This trough is a much larger wave from a spatial extent, which opens the door for smaller embedded waves to move over the area setting up a pattern that trends towards rain being a common theme for the extended forecast. At this distance, it is hard to have confidence on the timing of not just the rain, but any breaks in the rain, but it looks wet from Saturday onward. Additionally, this system moving in overnight Friday into Saturday is projected to have a colder airmass associated with it. Freezing levels will lower opening the door for some snow potentially at higher elevations. But even sheltered valley locations are expected to have morning low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s by early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 339 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026

A few localized terminals still have clouds below 1000 feet lingering this morning; however, there is low confidence in those clouds lasting for very long past daybreak. VFR is expected through the TAF window. Winds should mostly be at or below 10 knots and out of the north-northwest.

There is a rainy system approaching the airspace Tuesday morning. The probability for rain at any terminal was below 30 percent through 12Z and thus was kept out of the TAF for the time being.

Vicinity of SFO...Lingering FEW clouds below 1000 feet should clear out after daybreak. VFR conditions through the TAF window, though increasing clouds at or below 2000 feet is expected after 12Z tomorrow morning. Winds will be mainly out of the north- northwest, though it is possible that they flip slightly east of north for a window in the afternoon. There was consideration for adding a PROB30 group for rain between 12-18Z, but confidence in timing was low and the better chances for rain are after 18Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Lingering FEW clouds below 1000 feet should clear out after daybreak. VFR conditions through the TAF window. Winds will be out of the north-northwest and under 10 knots, becoming light overnight. Consideration was given to adding a PROB30 group at KOAK for rain between 12-18Z, but confidence in timing was low and the better chances for rain are after 18Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs have developed around KSNS, but LIFR cigs are clinging to the peninsula and KMRY. There is better confidence in clearing for KSNS later this afternoon. Model guidance has cigs slowly improving at KMRY, but lower confidence on the exact timing to VFR. Light north-northwest winds are expected this afternoon before becoming southeast overnight.

MARINE

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026

Fresh to strong northwest breezes prevail across the coastal waters today. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday. Gale force gusts are possible on Tuesday in the waters south of the Golden Gate depending on the strength and track of the low. Rain chances return next weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.