textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Mainly dry on Saturday, with northern Sonoma County having a 15- 40% chance of rain.

- Pattern change begins on Sunday, with unsettled weather trying to sag into the North Bay .

- Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind through the long term forecast period.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 (This evening through Saturday)

An upper level disturbance passes over the region today which brought isolated rain showers this morning and left cloudy skies for the afternoon. Weak upper level high pressure builds over the intermountain west today, while a deep upper level low from the Gulf of Alaska digs into the Eastern Pacific. Flow becomes a bit more zonal on Saturday, which may lead to showers skirting portions of Sonoma County and a mix of sun and clouds throughout the rest of the area.

LONG TERM

Issued at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)

Upper level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest, nudging the aforementioned upper level low to the north some. This should keep much of the region dry on Sunday, with rain chances being confined to the North Bay. This patter looks to hold until Monday, before the ridge flattens and the flow becomes more zonal. The upper level will tap into some tropical moisture, fueling our early-mid week rain and wind. Thankfully, the system doesn't look to stall in any regions, which will alleviating a pro-longed flood concern. Given recent rains, shallow landslides are possible as well as minor flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. Ponding of water and slick roadways are a guarantee. Mainstem river flooding is not expected with a low probability (less than 20%) of occurrence. Saturated soils, mean there is also a chance for downed trees with any stronger gusts.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 413 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR continues through the TAF period. Winds remain light and southeasterly to locally variable overnight. Winds strengthen to around 10 knots, becoming more southerly, as early as 12Z before winds strengthen further around 18-20Z. Gusts between 20 to 25 knots will become more likely across the North Bay, Bay Shoreline, and potentially MRY/SNS tomorrow afternoon and evening. High clouds persist across the board with some potential for mid-level (still VFR) clouds overnight across the Bay Area.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Winds become more southerly and strengthen through the TAF period with gusts increasing Saturday afternoon into the evening. Highest confidence in 20-25 knot gusts developing after 00Z on Sunday. High clouds persist through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds develop overnight but are not expected to lower below 3000 ft.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. High level clouds persist through the TAF period. Onshore winds will ease and become locally variable overnight. Winds shift more southerly to southwesterly during the day on Saturday with winds strengthening to 10-15 knots. There is some potential for gusts between 20-25 knots late tomorrow afternoon/evening but confidence is low to moderate at this time as high resolution guidance was not fully in favor of this scenario.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 958 AM PST Fri Feb 20 2026

Winds will shift to southerly and increase over the weekend, the strongest winds across the northern waters with gale force gusts by Saturday afternoon. As a result, rough to very rough seas redevelop by late weekend into early next week. Rain chances return late Saturday and continue into early to mid next week.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1047 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026

The following are the record low temperatures at the long term sites for Friday, Feb 20th.

Location Record Low

Santa Rosa 26 in 1913 Kentfield 27 in 1913 San Rafael 32 in 2018, 2006 Napa 27 in 2018 Richmond 35 in 1990 Livermore 27 in 2018 San Francisco 38 in 1897 SFO Airport 36 in 2018 Redwood City 30 in 1933 Half Moon Bay 28 in 2018 Oakland Museum 36 in 2011 San Jose 30 in 1897 Salinas Airport 28 in 1953

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ504- 506-510-513-515-528.

Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ514- 516>518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.