textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through early in the week

- Gradual warming starting midweek, with increasing Moderate HeatRisk for interior locations heading into the weekend

- Elevated fire weather threat across the Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week

- Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents thru mid-week

UPDATE

Issued at 1016 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Overall the forecast seems to be on track, though forecast temperatures are running 1-2 degrees below current observations. We'll continue to examine the potential for hotter conditions through this week with the latest guidance remaining consistent with projections for Moderate HeatRisk for much of the interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast, particularly across the Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges. Additional information will be forthcoming with our full forecast update later today.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1238 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 (Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery tonight continues to indicate marine stratus struggling to make a push inland. The SFO-SAC pressure gradient is around +4 which should result in an inland push by early morning, and clearing by late morning, possibly early afternoon for the terminals closer to the coast. Temperatures today are generally right around normal for this time of year, warmer than normal at higher elevations (~1500ft and higher). Breezy onshore flow especially into the gaps and valleys across our area will continue to dry fuels (see fire weather discussion for more details) and lead to elevated fire weather concerns, especially at higher elevations that will not see good RH recovery overnight. The most dangerous portion of the forecast both today and through the remainder of the week is the S-SW swell producing sneaker waves and riptides. One count had over 25 water rescues across our Pacific coastline Sunday, and likely more that didn't get reported to the media. Be extra careful and never turn your back on the water.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1238 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

Warmer temperatures are on the way, especially by the end of the week into next weekend with increasing odds of more widespread Moderate HeatRisk and potential heat advisories. However, there's still plenty uncertainty in the magnitude of the increasing heat. Cluster analysis maintains some troughing in our vicinity until late next weekend into the first week of August. Deterministic guidance struggled with Fausto this far out and expect that to continue with Genevieve. Depending how far north Genevieve tracks will determine how far north the persistent troughing over the EPAC gets nudged north and allows more impactful H50 height rises and thickness increases. The forecast remains dry throughout with the exception of possible coastal drizzle associated with the marine layer. Fire weather concerns will continue to increase through the extended forecast as fuels continue to dry and cure. Avoid any activities that could lead to a spark and ignition, fires that do start are likely to spread quickly.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Widespread moderate onshore breezes (10-20 kt) prevail through the afternoon and ease by sunset. Coastal sites and SFO have a high chance of experiencing gusts in excess of 18 kt this afternoon. Lingering clouds should dissipate no later than noon, except at HAF where they will linger until ~22Z today. Model guidance tends to be in agreement on a very shallow marine layer tonight of less than 1000 feet. Therefore, low confidence on how far inland it will push. Highest confidence for IFR-MVFR ceilings is at our coastal sites (HAF, MRY, and SNS). Depending on how warm SJC gets today, the bay- land temperature contrast may be strong enough to develop a land breeze overnight. Some models have hinted at the possibility, but considering the winds will be light and the trend from the past few nights, confidence is low at this time so the TAF was left with a predominant NW flow.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the afternoon with moderate westerly breezes. SFO will have another round of gusts around 30 kt today. Medium confidence on stratus arrival tonight as low-end MVFR ceilings may arrive between 09-12Z Tuesday and linger until ~18-19Z tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR anticipated shortly at MRY and then VFR forecast to prevail through 05-09Z Tuesday. Gusty onshore flow ramps up between 19Z-21Z with peak gusts in the 20-22 knot range. The general model consensus is for MVFR/IFR cigs to re-develop over the bay and infiltrate both sites by sunrise Tuesday. Confidence is low to medium on the exact timing thanks to the slightly compressed marine layer. The earliest arrival time for intermittent stratus would be 05Z Tuesday at MRY and closer to 10Z Tuesday at SNS, several hours later than climatological norm. Trends in satellite will be monitored as earlier cloud development (or later as it has been lately) across the bay may necessitate bumping the onset time up earlier. Confidence is high that VFR will return at SNS before the valid end time of the current TAF set. At MRY, confidence in a return to VFR isn't as high, but ceilings should transition from IFR to MVFR after 15Z Tuesday.

MARINE

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 947 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Fresh northwesterly breezes increase to strong today, persisting through the week with frequent gale force gusts along the Big Sur and Point Reyes coastal jet regions. Moderate seas build to rough in the outer waters by tomorrow and continue through the week. Distant tropical cyclones continue to send long period southerly swells our way through the work week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 534 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Breezy onshore winds and critically dry afternoon RH through the week will translate to an elevated fire weather threat. This threat will persist through mid-week and potentially into the latter half of the week and into the weekend. The most likely region for starts and fire spread will be across the interior Central Coast where Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile. While morning RH recovery will moderate some through the week, the shallow marine layer will equate to generally poor overnight recovery for elevations at or above 2,000 feet through Wednesday morning. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre-danw hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may not diminish. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.

BEACHES

Issued at 145 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific will continue to generate 18-20 second (long-period) southwesterly swell which has reached the coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points (like Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach). This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise and can result in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through Wednesday afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.