textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1049 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Gradual warming and drying trend Saturday and into next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1049 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 (Tonight through Sunday)

The region will remain on the eastern periphery of upper-level troughing well off the West Coast Saturday. Sensible weather wise, this'll bring another Fogust day with temperatures well below normal, clouds in the evenings/mornings with a chance for drizzle, and onshore flow. Gusts of 20-30 mph can be expected through gaps/passes and down the Salinas Valley. While the marine layer remains deep, it doesn't look healthy on satellite with patchwork stratus across the region. Diurnal winds will keep smoke from the Timber Fire out to sea with downsloping (easterly) winds in the morning and onshore (northwesterly) winds in the afternoon.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1049 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)

Upper-level ridging will nose in from the east on Sunday and ultimately anchor itself across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. This will result in a gradual warming and drying trend into next week. Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal normals away from and above the marine layer influence at the coast. As the marine layer compresses with subsidence aloft, its footprint will become smaller and conditions above it will become drier. Poor afternoon daytime relative humidity of 20-30% is expected for the higher terrain with locally lower values of 10-20% across the Central Coast. Recovery will remain moderate through the weekend, but by Monday little-to-none is expected with that trend continuing through Friday. This will likely lead to seasonably elevated conditions with rapid rates of spread on any wind-and-terrain aligned starts in receptive vegetation. The timeframe of most concern will be with the diurnal sea breeze in the afternoons/evenings.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding across the region and will impact all the terminals through the night into the later part of Saturday morning, when inland stratus progressively mixes out leaving coastal regions socked in through the daytime. Moderate and gusty onshore winds will develop Saturday afternoon and evening. Stratus returns to the region Saturday night with lower ceilings expected as a thermal ridge begins to compress the marine layer.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR stratus persists through the night, with clearing expected sometime during the late morning or early afternoon hours on Saturday. Breezy west-northwest winds will resume Saturday afternoon, with stratus returning in the evening to overnight hours. Confidence in the stratus clearing and development times is low as high-resoluton models suggest that the edge of the stratus deck may develop right over the terminal, and lingering stratus on the western side of the San Bruno Gap may lead to pulses of stratus ceilings during an otherwise VFR period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-IFR ceilings and light winds continue through the night and into the late hours of Saturday morning. Moderate confidence that MRY remains socked in through the day, with the most likely time for scattering between 20-00Z. Moderate northwest winds will develop Saturday afternoon and evening. Stratus will return to SNS sometime Saturday evening with low confidence in the exact timing.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 955 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Gentle to moderate northwest winds persist through the early part of next week. Seas will continue to subside and become moderate in response. A long period southerly swell of about 16 to 18 seconds approaches the coast tonight into Sunday. Winds increase to a fresh to strong breeze in the early and middle parts of next week, causing seas to build up to 9 feet.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.