textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1144 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026

- Long period southwest swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents through Tuesday morning

- Today will be the warmest day of the week for most locations

- Slightly cooler temperatures by the end of the week into the weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1144 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 (Today and tonight)

Today will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal with slight H50 height increase though little change in thickness values. The marine layer remains primarily compressed to coastal areas with stratus lifting by late morning. Expect mostly sunny skies by the afternoon with breezy diurnal onshore flow at times, especially in the East Bay Hills and Salinas Valley. A strengthening marine layer tonight into Tuesday morning will make farther progress inland with overnight lows in the 50s area wide.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1144 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

The upper level ridging begins to shift east and flatten on Tuesday with split flow aloft across our region through the end of the work week, which will keep temperatures at or slightly above normal through the remainder of the work week. There's also a chance of coastal drizzle with the expanding marine layer through the middle of the week. There is still some uncertainty with the exact position and timing of a developing trough moving into the Pacific Northwest by the end of the week into the weekend, but confidence is high that we'll see a slight cool down for next weekend with otherwise no impactful or hazardous weather concerns through the extended forecast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 938 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026

Moderate confidence that VFR conditions will continue overnight with the exception of IFR conditions at HAF, MRY, and SNS. LAMP and MOS guidance both suggest CIGs in the IFR-MVFR vicinity along the coast with some potential for fog to develop. Confidence is low that fog will develop but if the marine layer is able to lower overnight then coastal fog would be more likely. Winds continue to ease overnight before breezier onshore winds return during the day tomorrow.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. There is a slight chance that MVFR-IFR CIGs reach SFO overnight between 12-18Z. Confidence is low, however, with high resolution guidance showing RH values less than 90% at SFO during this time period. HREF guidance has additionally backed off of stratus extending into the SF Bay and vicinity of SFO with the 00Z run. The combination of these two factors was enough to maintain a FEW in the TAF but not expecting CIGs to develop. Winds continue to ease overnight before gusty onshore winds return during the afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-IFR conditions expected overnight. The marine layer is currently between 900-1000 ft with stratus expected to be similar to that tonight. There is some potential for fog to develop early tomorrow morning with LAMP guidance leaning harder on this than MOS guidance. For now, kept lower visibilities in the TAF but did not put fog in yet. Expecting stratus coverage to reduce by late morning with stratus returning late tomorrow evening/tomorrow night. CIGs are more likely to be MVFR tomorrow night as a deeper marine layer returns. Breezy onshore winds are expected again during the day before winds weaken during the night.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 938 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026

Fresh to strong northerly winds gradually decrease overnight with moderate to fresh winds expected by Monday afternoon. Seas subside below 10 feet as winds decrease by Monday afternoon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue through Tuesday before building seas, strong northerly winds, and gale force gusts return starting mid week.

BEACHES

Issued at 1229 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect today through 5 AM Tuesday morning due to an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents caused by a long period southwest swell. On the buoys, this swell is being masked by stronger northwest swell waves, but careful analysis of the wave spectrum at the Point Reyes and Point Sur buoys reveals a southwest swell around 1 to 2 feet high with a period of 20 seconds. These long period swells result in increased risk of sneaker waves, potentially deadly waves which surge much further up the beach than expected and sweep unaware beachgoers into the ocean, and strong rip currents that can sweep the strongest swimmers away from shore. Never turn your back to the ocean! Inexperienced swimmers should stay away from the water. Observe the waves for 20 minutes before moving closer. Swim near a lifeguard if possible, and if caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the coast away from the current, and then at an angle to shore.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.