textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 400 PM PST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Widespread rain chances start Tuesday and linger through early Thursday, wITH 75% chance of at least 1.50" in the Santa Lucias

- General thunderstorm potential Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday brining chances for isolated thunder, gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavier rain

- Strengthening south winds Tuesday into early Wednesday could produce gusts up to 40 mph in the high terrain of the central coast, peaking late Tuesday

- A break in rain chances Thursday into Friday, then rain chances return later Saturday and linger through early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1057 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (This afternoon through Tuesday Night)

Mid to high level clouds are exist over much of the state today as the storm track under goes a shift. Near the surface a cold front existed the central coast of CA early this morning and ushered in cooler air, with 24 hour temperature trends generally around 2 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday. Light north winds behind the weak boundary have been able to succumb to local influences with terrain and coastal interactions, however a few higher elevation observations do show north to northeast winds with occasional gusts up to 15 to 20 mph (Santa Cruz Mts, Diablo Range, and some East/North Bay Mts).

Current satellite places an upper trough and surface cyclone around 600 miles off the coast of northern CA today. This upper trough will dig southeast and strengthen as the surface cyclone meets a stationary boundary located to the southeast. This places the location of these features around 300 miles off the coast of central CA tonight into Tuesday morning. The upper wave will become a closed low as these surface features phase and more moisture gets thrown in the mix. The upper closed low continues to deepen Tuesday as it rotates from positive to a more neutral tilt. This will also sling the deepening surface cyclone to the northeast as reaches ~1001 mb to 1005mb. Strong winds wrapping around these features will be reflected all the way down to the surface.. with a 925mb to 850mb jet of 35 to 45kts that moves over the central coast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The track doesn't quite align for stronger southeast winds down the Salinas Valley, and initial gradients from KSNS-KPRB remain around 1.6 to 2.2mb which points to lower confidence in winds trending stronger up the Salinas Valley as we get closer. The higher terrain is a different story with the stronger winds aloft. 12Z HREF probabilities 75% chances of at least 35 to 45 mph gusts in the higher terrain of the Santa Lucias and Diablo Range... with 25% chances for 45 to 55 mph. Winds will begin to strengthen midday Tuesday, but peak in these areas later Tuesday evening and night.

A little after winds start to strengthen (Tuesday afternoon and evening) the upper closed low and surface cyclone will eventually land just right off the coast. Through the afternoon upper heights will trend down and increase mid-level lapse rates, as well as a quick window of isentropic ascent should move in with ample moisture (PWATs increasing to ~0.8"). Some lighter rain and clouds could be realized Tuesday afternoon as things approach. As lapse rates increase, instability will also increase. Rain will eventually become more widespread Tuesday evening with embedded showers and storms. Wind shear does exist, and will generally have more of a speed shear component.. however local terrain and coastal influences will very likely generate enhanced directional shear. Cooler air aloft, will help with ice forming and therefore lightning/small hail potential exists with some storms. Gusty winds and a few water spouts are not out of the question either. Locally heavier rainfall with storms will be seen too, however storms will be moving and the low will be wiggling around Tuesday night... leading to low confidence in training or stalling issues of storms.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1057 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday)

Wednesday morning, another piece of energy will rotate along the west side of the upper closed low... which will keep it centered over central CA through early Thursday. Although the features linger over the CWA, they will weaken starting Wednesday morning. Clouds and light to occasionally moderate rain at times will be seen Wednesday into early Thursday. Wind will gradually weaken Wednesday morning, with the stronger gusts likely remaining confident to the central coast (more details in short term section).

As the upper troughing exits to the south, upper ridging will build in for later Thursday and into Friday. A break in rain chances will be seen, with more sunny skies and temperatures slightly warming.

Chances for a quick return to a wet pattern continue to increase. Starting Sunday, an upper trough will start to dig southward along the state returning beneficial rain and cooler temperatures. Weaker surface features look to accompany this system, resulting in higher confidence in light to moderate rain... beneficial rain. The upper trough continues to dig south and amplify into early next week, which should continue wet and cool conditions over the CWA.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 PM PST Mon Feb 9 2026

High clouds this evening and overnight ahead of incoming weather system due to arrive Tuesday. Light winds overnight through Tuesday morning then increasing out of the south by Tuesday afternoon with some rain arriving after 20z Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO...Light winds with mainly high clouds forecast this evening and overnight. Winds turn light southeasterly to start the day Tuesday. Main rain band looks to hold off until after 22z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...High clouds with light winds through midday Tuesday. Light precip possible for KOAK after 22z and likely closer to 00z Weds for KSJC.

Monterey Bay Terminals...High clouds this evening. Increasing southeasterly winds Salinas valley during the day Tuesday. Rain shadowing should keep both terminals dry through 00z Weds.

MARINE

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026

Fresh to strong northwest breezes prevail across the coastal waters today. A low pressure system will then approach from the west bringing rain to the coastal waters and bays Tuesday through Wednesday. Southerly gale force gusts are possible on Tuesday in the waters south of the Golden Gate depending on the strength and track of the low. Rain chances return next weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.