textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 152 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Breezy winds through Saturday

- Warm weekend with high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal

- Dry conditions through the extended forecast

SHORT TERM

Issued at 150 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 (This evening through Saturday)

All focus remains on the warm up over the weekend. High pressure is dominating the Eastern Pacific while an upper trough and cutoff low linger across the desert Southwest and Southern California. This pattern is having a two fold affect on the Bay Area and Central Coast forecast. First is the broad area of high pressure over the East Pacific. While typically a summertime pattern, it is having summerlike influences on our early spring time. Under this pattern we expect clear skies and warming conditions. This pattern also sets up winds out of the North along the coast. When this happens the area can experience coastal upwelling of cooler subsurface water. In turn this can lead to sea/land breeze circulation as well as some low clouds and fog to form in the lowest layers in the late day and overnight hours. The surface high pressure is being analyzed by the ocean prediction center at 1037 mb, which is a decently stout high for March. The second item is that of the upper trough/cutoff low. This is more of a wind steering items than anything else. When this pattern sets up, adjacent to the high pressure over the East Pacific, it takes the winds that would normally come from the North and veers them toward the Northeast. This means we can get a bit more offshore flow across the region. Offshore winds can bring adiabatic warming (downsloping) for many portions of the area.

This pattern over the weekend will bring the warmth that is associated with a strong area of high pressure combine with offshore winds will cause temperatures for Saturday and Sunday to run anywhere from about 10-20 degrees above normal. Models typically handle this pattern decently well, but can run a few degrees too cool at times. Looking at the ensemble envelope we leaned more towards the 75th percentile of the NBM, but did this with the NBM EXP. The place that models do not handle well in this pattern is San Francisco. This is for a few reasons, but the biggest is being a small piece of land surrounded by water on three sides. We look at wind direction carefully to give us an idea of what will happen in SF during these pattern and Saturday morning (some degree Sunday morning) will see winds at 925 mb from the Northeast at about 30 knots. So far models have been a little weak on the 925 winds. Even so, with 30 knots and a coupled atmosphere, high temperatures for SF on Saturday have a good probability (greater than 70%) of exceeding 80 degrees in a few locations. No models will pick this up and forecast was manually adjusted to account for this. The piece to watch will the minimum temperatures for early Saturday and Sunday morning. If we start near 60 degrees in SF, it is almost a sure bet that SF will pop into the low to mid 80s. If we do it again on Sunday morning, the pattern is similar enough that we could pop again for a short time on Sunday.

Everyone else around the Bay Area, rest assured, you were not forgotten. Numerical models handle your locations better than they handle SF. In short, it's going to be a warm weekend.

LONG TERM

Issued at 150 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)

By the time we get late into the weekend and into early next week, the pattern will shift. The stout high will retreat farther offshore, the upper trough over the Southwest will pinch off into a cutoff low over Northern Baja, and a bagginess in the jet stream will start to encroach upon the Northern portions of our service area. This will be short lived though as high pressure starts to reassert itself during the middle of next week. Model really start to diverge late next week with a few going back to a trough and bringing the area a chance of rain and several others holding on to the ridge and maintaining the string of sunny days. As we get through the weekend we'll have more to say about late next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 926 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR. Northerly winds are forecast to increase this afternoon before diminishing late in the evening and into Saturday morning. Gusty conditions will remain possible at times throughout the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 152 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026

Hazardous conditions will continue through this evening due to strong northerly breezes and rough to very rough seas. Frequent gale force gusts are expected to continue across the northern outer waters through this evening. Conditions will briefly improve this weekend as northerly breezes diminish and seas subside, yet hazardous conditions will linger for the northern outer waters. By Monday, strong northerly breezes and rough to very rough seas return.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.