textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 927 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Sharp cool-down this weekend and early next week

- Coastal flooding during high tides through mid-week - Beach Hazards Saturday morning until Monday evening

- Light rain possible north Central Coast early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)

As of 1 PM PDT, temperatures are running between 10-25 degrees cooler than this time yesterday with up to 30 degrees cooler in isolated locations. Needless to say, the cool down has arrived. Early morning stratus was slow to retreat to the coast, but with mostly sunny skies across the interior we are expected this afternoon to still be warm.

An upper level cut-off low pressure is approximately 400 miles southwest of the Monterey Bay. This has allowed for a deepening marine layer that is forecast to deepen further tonight and into Saturday morning to around 2000 feet. As such, have added coastal drizzle into the forecast south of the Golden Gate where there is about a 20-60% probability (based off of the HREF) of seeing greater than 0.01" of precipitation from 8 PM this evening through 8 AM Saturday. This is a typical pattern for which we see widespread coastal drizzle!

By late tonight and into Saturday morning, a mostly dry frontal passage (minus the drizzle) is forecast to move from north the south across the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will bring temperatures down to below seasonal averages Saturday, generally 5 to 15 degrees cooler. In wake of the frontal passage, winds will increase out of the northwest with afternoon and evening gusts between 35-45 mph in the favored gaps, passes, and wind-prone areas. Winds over the ocean will be even stronger with gale-force gusts likely!

LONG TERM

Issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)

Winds ease a bit on Sunday with an even colder air mass settling into the region from the north. Temperatures will struggle to warm into the 60s to lower 70s across much of the region. By Sunday night into Monday, there is a chance for rain showers over the north Central Coast as mid/upper level remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel and an upper level cut-off low move across the region. Across the Bay Area and North Bay, there is a less than 10-15% chance of precipitation. This could change depending on the track of the cut- off low and remnant moisture.

Cooler conditions persist into midweek before a gradual warming trend takes palace towards the latter half of the week as ridging builds in from the eastern Pacific.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 426 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026

I'm sorry about the Blue Angles today. There's a better chance Saturday afternoon, but Sunday is the best bet. The marine layer has deepened to 1300' according to the 00Z sounding. This has allowed ceilings to improve to MVFR across the coastal terminals. On the other hand, the deeper marine layer will allow the stratus to push further inland tonight, but MVFR conditions will prevail with a deeper marine layer and a decent breeze to help keep things well mixed at the surface. As the clouds clear midday Saturday, strong onshore winds will develop at the exposed terminals.

Vicinity of SFO...The city of San Francisco has been under a blanket of stratus all day, keeping the Blue Angles on hold. SFO on the other hand has been mostly clear. The SW winds are sheltering the terminal today. However as the winds gradually turn more westerly and the marine layer continues to deepen, the chance for ceilings overnight increases. GFSLAMP shows a 50% chance for MVFR ceilings between 07Z and 12Z, but I'm going to keep that in a TEMPO group for now until the walls start closing in. If any ceilings develop, they will very likely clear by 15Z as strong westerly winds develop. Gusts to 30 kts are possible in the afternoon and early evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Broadly similar to SFO, but the approach has a better chance to stay clear through the night.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings are already here and will persist through the night. There is some indication that a period of IFR conditions are possible before midnight, but the winds seem too strong for that to happen so I'm ignoring that sign in the guidance. The winds won't be as strong as the SF Bay Area terminals Saturday afternoon, but a moderate onshore breeze will still develop in the afternoon, particularly at SNS.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 426 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Strong northerly breezes will continue to spread into the northern waters with frequent gale force gusts expected by late tonight. These winds will continue to spread southward into Saturday, leading to widespread hazardous conditions through at least Sunday morning. Seas will build in response and become rough to very rough seas through Sunday before slowly subsiding to moderate late Monday into Tuesday. A long period southerly swell will collide with long period northwesterly swell on Sunday, creating a confused sea state.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Stronger onshore winds will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the interior and higher terrain Friday. Cooling and moistening trend kicks off Friday with the help of a deeper marine layer and an increase in onshore flow. Moderate to excellent recovery is expected Friday night. Cooler, windier, and more humid conditions are expected over the weekend with light rain possible early next week.

Sarment

BEACHES

Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Saturday through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves up to 16 feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!

Sarment

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.

Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.