textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

- Below normal temperatures through the weekend, gradual warming and drying trend kicks off Monday through Thursday

- Light rain showers from remnant tropical moisture possible Tuesday through Friday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)

Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches will be the main story through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant Hurricane Marie will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves up to 10 feet. The ocean is not your friend this weekend, so enjoy the unofficial end of summer anywhere but the beach. Sensible weather wise, well below normal temperatures and onshore flow will continue through Sunday. The marine layer continues to be the lowest confidence aspect of the short term forecast. The 12Z sounding found a temperature inversion at 1,400 feet; however, boundary layer winds were not onshore and thus clouds struggled to form. The normal marine layer may continue to struggle to form through the weekend with little forcing in place. As upper-level ridging nudges in from the east on Monday, a gradual warming and drying trend will commence and the marine layer is slated to return.

LONG TERM

Issued at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 (Monday through next Friday)

Global ensemble clusters have come into much better agreement with the long term forecast, especially Tuesday through Thursday. Upper- level ridging will continue to build in from the east on Tuesday; simultaneously, a cutoff low will dig well off the West Coast and pickup what will likely be Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie. The farther west track of the low and a stronger ridge has led to a warmer and drier forecast. Even though we are now expected to be on the fringes of it, the upper-level pattern will act as a conveyor belt for remnant tropical moisture with cyclonic flow to the west and anti- cyclonic flow to the east. Rainfall totals up to 0.10" can be expected, favoring coastal and higher terrain locations. Temperatures will moderate to near normal and climb up to 10 degrees above normal by Thursday, introducing minor to moderate HeatRisk.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 412 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Generally VFR conditions with some mid-level pop-up clouds across the region, extending through the evening hours and potentially beyond. Moderate to strong onshore winds continue through the afternoon and evening hours with winds diminishing overnight. Radiational fog processes will likely bring LIFR conditions to STS, and potentially into APC, while MVFR ceilings should dominate at OAK and HAF. High resolution model output is starting to put ceilings within the Monterey Bay region, but the observed conditions last night are reducing confidence in the output. Will need to monitor for development of stratus tonight. Stratus should mix out through Sunday morning with breezy onshore winds resuming in the afternoon hours.

Vicinity of SFO... Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period, with some MVFR clouds possible early Sunday morning. Moderate westerly winds with strong gusts will persist into the evening hours, with winds turning gentle tonight before the moderate winds resume Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with moderate northwest winds through the evening hours. Tonight, high resolution model output is trying to put LIFR-IFR ceilings at the terminals. This is what they also showed last night, but those ceilings didn't materialize. Thus, opted against chasing the models too aggressively and kept the terminals at VFR through the night. Will need to monitor how the situation evolves this evening. Any stratus that forms will dissipate through Sunday morning with breezy northwest winds resuming in the afternoon hours.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 301 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

North to northwest breezes will be gentle to moderate through the beginning of next week. Diurnal moderate to strong breezes are expected across the San Pablo, San Francisco and Monterey Bays today into the beginning of next week. Fresh to strong gusts become more widespread early next week before winds decrease by midweek. Long period southerly swell will continue to impact the coastal waters through much of the upcoming week.

BEACHES

Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day as the swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast. Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft. As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back on the ocean.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.