textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 151 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Sharp cool-down this weekend and early next week

- Coastal flooding during high tides through mid-week - Beach Hazards Saturday morning until Monday evening

- Light rain possible north Central Coast early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 151 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)

Water vapor imagery this afternoon is quite fascinating as you can see the upper level troughing moving into northern California, while Tropical Storm Rachel moves towards Baja California. Visible satellite imagery shows some high clouds from TS Rachel starting to infiltrate the southern most skies in the Central COast while the majority of the region observes mostly clear skies due to drier air that has worked into the region. Though a few areas are still seeing some stratocumulus clouds lingering. The forecast generally appears to be on track as high temperatures generally sit in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, the low 60s to low 70s for interior valley locations, and the warmer temperatures, generally in the mid 70s for the thermal belts.

Tonight, skies should clear for much of the region. Coastal stratus might try to around and south of Half Moon Bay,sneaking into the northern Salinas Valley. Temperatures tonight will cooler than last, with the 40s expected for most interior valley locations, and the upper 40s to low 50s for those near the coast or influenced by the stratus. Some higher elevations in the Diablo and Gabilan Ranges, the Cholame Hills, Sierra de Salinas, and Santa Lucia could see lows dip into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Sunday and Monday, upper level troughing continues to dominate the weather. Unseasonably cool high temperatures are forecast for the entire region, generally ranging from 5 to 15 degrees below their normals. Sunday looks to be dry for much of the period. Some showers might try to sneak up into southern Monterey and perhaps even into southern San Benito counties late Sunday into Monday morning. Models from the 12Z suite still showed this, though the NBM had continued to pull chances southward and out of the region. This continues to be seen with the 18Z model runs, which means chances may continue to trend south of our region. For now, kept the 15-40% chance of rain in the grids, favoring the Santa Lucia and Monterey/San Luis Obispo county lines. Precip amounts continue to be light and have trended to 0-0.05".

LONG TERM

Issued at 151 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 (Monday through next Friday)

Upper level troughing slowly exits the region on Tuesday as an eastern Pacific High builds. One more day of cooler weather is expected, though temperatures should be several degrees higher than Monday. As upper level ridging moves in Wednesday and is then expected to hold through the end of the work week with cluster analysis supporting ridging into the weekend. Warmer and more seasonal weather is expected for mid week, with above normal temperatures expected for the weekend. Currently, no record high temperatures are at risk of being broken.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 509 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Gusty onshore winds continue this afternoon and ease post sunset. No marine layer is expected tonight as dry air from the cold front has mixed it out completely. There is potential for a few to scattered stratocumulus cloud decks, but not currently expecting significant impacts to operations. As a result, moderate to high confidence for VFR conditions to prevail this TAF period at most terminals. Monterey Bay terminals may develop MVFR stratus overnight though low confidence on the exact ceiling heights and timing. Light winds overnight increase to moderate onshore Sunday afternoon with a lower chance for widespread gusts.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR with strong gusts around 20 to 30 kt gradually diminishing through the evening. High confidence for VFR to prevail through the TAF period. Sunday afternoon may have one last round of strong gusts with a 40-60% chance of exceeding 20-25 kt.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate onshore winds gradually diminish this evening with VFR conditions prevailing. Low to medium confidence on MVFR stratus overnight given the presence of dry air mixing in the post-frontal environment. If a stratus deck does develop, it will likely be high-end/borderline MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, VFR prevails Sunday morning as moderate onshore winds increase to 10-15 kt.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 509 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Hazardous marine environment this weekend due to fresh breezes to Gale force northwest winds over the waters. Expect frequent gale force gusts in exposed waters north of Pigeon Point. The stronger winds will result in rough to very rough seas. A confused sea stater will persist due to strong winds, rough seas, and several swells from several directions impacting the coastal waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Heading to the beach this weekend? The sun will be out, but beaches conditions will be less than ideal. A cold front will bring gusty winds over the coastal waters and nearby beaches. More importantly, the surf zone will remain very energetic. Long period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves 13-16 feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!

MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.