textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 304 AM PST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Mostly dry for tonight and Thursday with the exception of coastal drizzle tonight into early Thursday morning.

- Patchy to Areas of dense fog likely overnight

- Rain, wind, and general thunderstorms Sunday

- Rainy and windy conditions are expected to continue through the holiday into the end of next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 226 PM PST Wed Dec 17 2025 (This evening through Thursday)

A mix of sun and clouds for the remainder of the afternoon in the wake of a relatively weak cold front that pushed through our area earlier this morning. Rainfall received overnight and this morning was beneficial with most low lying areas seeing around a tenth-of-an- inch, and higher elevations seeing from a tenth-of-an-inch to half- an-inch. Expect areas of dense fog to develop overnight within inland valleys. especially the North Bay, Bay Area and East Bay. Closer to the coast, fog and drizzle will combine to limit visibility overnight into early Thursday morning.

Thursday will be mostly dry with the exception of the coastal drizzle that should taper off an hour or two after sunrise. Thursdays high temperatures will be right around normal, slightly above normal for higher elevations within the Central Coast. The first wave of numerous rounds of rainfall will first move into the North Bay late in the day Thursday with only light rain for the onset into Friday.

LONG TERM

Issued at 226 PM PST Wed Dec 17 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Plenty of uncertainty remains with the exact timing and intensity of the rainfall we're expecting to impact our area beginning Friday through the remainder of the extended forecast. What we do know attm is the North Bay will see the most rainfall as several waves of moderate/heavy rainfall push through over the next week, along with elevated coastal ranges from San Mateo south through the Santa Cruz mountains into the Santa Lucia's. The period of heaviest rainfall as of this writing looks to be late Saturday night through early Monday morning, which means Sunday may be difficult travel day. Give yourself plenty of extra time to travel at anytime over the next week, but especially Sunday.

The totals over the coastal ranges will standout on ours and others weather maps you'll see as we head into one of the busiest travel times of the year. However, low lying areas all across our region will see plenty of impacts from the rain, wind and other cumulative problems associated with multiple storm systems moving over our area. By the beginning of next week we are likely to see rivers begin to swell and the potential for rock and land slides to interfere with travel plans. Signals for rainfall chances beyond the scope of our official forecast persist into the end of next week as well.

Most of the Pacific Coast is highlighted in CPC outlooks for excessive rainfall through the extended forecast. Please monitor our web page (weather.gov/mtr) for updated rainfall total maps, more specific timing and impacts for our area along with our partners at the CPC for bigger picture products across the West Coast (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov).

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 332 PM PST Wed Dec 17 2025

Generally MVFR-VFR with mid-to high level ceilings across the region. A light to gentle onshore flow prevails through the evening hours with light winds overnight, with onshore winds returning Thursday afternoon. The clearing trend will continue through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours with generally MVFR-IFR stratus developing overnight across the Bay Area valleys and the southern Salinas Valley. Chances for rain begin to enter the North Bay Thursday morning, but best chances for STS do not arrive until after the end of the 24-hour TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR conditions with SCT low clouds continue through the evening hours with breezy west-northwest winds becoming light overnight. MVFR stratus returns to the terminal around midnight with a gradual diminishing to IFR conditions through the pre-dawn hours. Clearing is expected late Thursday morning, with a return to breezy west-northwest winds in the afternoon. Stratus returns late Thursday evening in advance of a rain band expected to arrive after the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions with breezy northwest winds continue through the afternoon. MVFR-IFR stratus returns in the late evening with shallow fog development possible due to the clear skies. VFR conditions return late Thursday morning with the return of breezy northeast winds.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 226 PM PST Wed Dec 17 2025

Light to moderate onshore breezes will prevail with moderate seas through late week. Rain chances return to the northern waters on Thursday night and will push southward through the day on Friday. Additional rain arrives Saturday night and will continue off and on at times through much of next week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.