textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 108 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

- Warming and drying trend through Monday

- Tidally influenced coastal flooding and hazardous beach conditions continue today

- Unsettled weather pattern returns middle of next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 108 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 (Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery reveals patches of stratus holding on in several places across the region, notably the North Bay valleys and coast, the southern San Mateo Peninsula coastline, parts of the Santa Clara Valley, and interior San Benito County. These patches are in defiance of the broader scale offshore flow that is observed across the higher elevations, and while there is a chance for further stratus expansion, those chances are decaying as the offshore flow dries out the lower atmosphere. Recent rainfall and the generally mild wind speeds will limit fire weather concerns. Low temperatures this morning will hover in the upper 40s in valleys and wind shielded areas, with lower to middle 50s expected everywhere else. By the afternoon hours, the skies will clear out underneath the influence of a building upper level ridge, with highs generally around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages, ranging from the middle to upper 70s inland, the lower to middle 70s along the Bays, and the middle 60s along the Pacific coast.

LONG TERM

Issued at 108 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 (Sunday through Friday)

The ridge remains established through Sunday and Monday, enabling further warming of the region with the highs reaching around 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages. The inland valleys reach the upper 70s to middle 80s, while highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s are forecast for the Bayside regions and the Pacific Coast reaches the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight, the thermal belts remain active through Tuesday morning, resulting in mild overnight lows and offshore winds across the higher terrain.

The focus of the seven day forecast continues to be the shift towards a more unsettled weather pattern in the middle of next week. The ridge over the West Coast erodes and shifts towards the east, allowing an upper level trough to build in the northeastern Pacific and arrive across the West Coast beginning on Wednesday. The current model consensus depicts the best chance for precipitation and the most intense rain coming through the region late on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a period of lower chances of less intense rain, potentially showery in nature, Friday and Saturday. There are still several sources of uncertainty in regards to the forecast, particularly in the rainfall totals and resultant downstream impacts to flooding and landslide risk. For the period from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM on Saturday the 15th, the NBM gives the following ranges for 25th to 75th percentile rainfall totals (that is, a 50% probability that the eventual rainfall falls within this range): 1.2"-2.2" at Sonoma County Airport and San Francisco International Airport, 0.8"- 1.6" at San Jose Airport, and 1"-2" at the Livermore Airport and Monterey Regional Airport. Just to add that additional bit of spiciness to the forecast, the NBM is also painting a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms across the Bay Area and Central Coast on Thursday, with K Index values of 30-35 degrees Celsius suggesting that scattered thunderstorms are possible. We will continue to monitor the evolution of the forecast as we head into the early part of next week, particularly in case the rainfall totals start leaning towards more impactful scenarios.

Beyond the 7 day outlook, ensemble model means are suggesting another trough may develop somewhere around the Day 9-10 timeframe, and the CPC outlook leans towards precipitation totals above seasonal averages heading into the first week of December.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 334 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

Patchy dense fog in the North Bay will continue to limit visibility through mid-morning as offshore flow begins to spread across our area, with LIFR/IFR vis/cigs at KSTS and KAPC.

Vicinity of SFO...Offshore flow will result in VFR conditions through the forecast period with a slight chance of MVFR status in vicinity of the terminals around sunrise today.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Relatively light but steady offshore flow will result in VFR conditions through the forecast period.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 334 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

Moderate seas today will gradually become more favorable through the weekend and continue for the first half of the upcoming of week. The next storm will bring a fresh southerly breeze Wednesday and rough seas to the coastal waters by Thursday.

BEACHES

Issued at 1048 AM PST Thu Nov 7 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will persist through Saturday for all coastal beaches. Expect an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents as well as breaking waves up to 25 feet. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure, and never turn your back on the ocean! The increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents will linger Friday through early Saturday morning with westerly swell quickly rebuilding.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006- 506-508-529-530.

PZ...None.