textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Pattern change beings milder temperatures today

- Stratus mixes out through the morning, lingering at the coast and in the far interior East Bay

- No major changes in the forecast weather through the next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 101 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025 (Today and tonight) Satellite imagery shows high-level clouds over the Bay Area, associated with a weakening frontal boundary that is moving across the state. Stratus decks are also visible across the North and East Bay valleys and parts of eastern San Mateo County and the Santa Clara Valley. The stratus decks will stay in place through sunrise and for a couple of hours afterward, with some areas remaining socked in through the day, but the upper level disruption of the passing front may be enough to keep the widespread dense fog away this morning. In the event that patchy dense fog does form, drivers should slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave extra space between them and the car in front.

Today marks a transition period between the departure of the ridge that has brought us seasonally warm weather these last few days and the development of a very strong ridge over the Gulf of Alaska which will promote downstreams troughs into the contiguous 48 states. The daytime should feature sunny skies for most people, with lingering stratus possible in areas of eastern Contra Costa and Alameda counties connected to the Central Valley, in addition to western parts of San Francisco and San Mateo Counties. High temperatures today will range from the upper 50s to the middle 60s across most of the Bay Area, the middle 60s to lower 70s across inland parts of the Central Coast, and the lower to middle 50s across the highest mountain peaks and ridgelines. These high temperatures may need to be adjusted downward if stratus lingers longer than expected across a place.

LONG TERM

Issued at 101 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025 (Saturday through Thursday)

It might be the day after Thanksgiving but the weather pattern might make some people recall Groundhog Day. There will be a couple of troughs digging into the Intermountain West but these will remain displaced too far east to give us any significant concerns. For our region, the next week should feature a rather persistent forecast light offshore flows, seasonally mild temperatures, and dry and clear skies, which should help eat away at the pool of stratus that has developed across the Central Valley.

There is a very slight chance (10-15% probability at most) of light precipitation towards the latter part of next week if one of the troughs digging into the Intermountain West deepens into a cutoff low that retrogrades over southern California and merges with a second cutoff low coming in off the coast, but the probabilities are so low and the nuances numerous enough that the forecast remains highly uncertain. CPC outlooks for December 5 to 11 features a slight lean towards precipitation totals above seasonal averages for the Central Coast, but the key word here is slight with the CPC putting the probabilities around 33-40%. For context, the seasonal average rainfall total for Salinas Airport for that period comes in at just under half an inch.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 404 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

Areas of LIFR-IFR in fog and low stratus continues to redevelop early this morning. A cooler air intrusion is arriving from the northwest which will gradually weaken the lower level thermal ridge aloft i.e. weakening the lower level temperature inversion (this is the cap on fog and stratus). The weakening of the lower level temperature inversion should help preclude widespread development of dense fog (visibility less than 1/4 mile) in our forecast area, though we'll still have low IFR ceilings and visibilities to navigate through. In theory conditions like we have this morning should help vertical mixing winds get underway a little sooner along with some help from what we can get from diurnal warming under a late November sun. Best probability of VFR will be in the afternoon. HREF shows areas of fog and stratus /LIFR-IFR/ redeveloping tonight and Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR due to stratus continues to 18z today. VFR forecast from late morning through afternoon and evening. IFR due to stratus redevelops tonight and Saturday morning. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 8 to 14 knots later this morning and during the afternoon. Light and variable wind tonight and Saturday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...High clouds on satellite are obscuring the areal coverage of fog/stratus over the coastal waters. Low to moderate confidence current VFR conditions continue through the morning. IFR ceilings possible tonight and Saturday morning. Winds mainly southeasterly 5 to 10 knots this morning, becoming onshore 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Winds light southeasterly tonight and Saturday morning.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 338 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

Light to moderate northerly winds continue today as a weak cool front moves through the northern waters. Localized fresh winds are expected south of Point Pinos tonight into Saturday. Winds will decrease early Saturday before increasing late Saturday into early next week. Hazardous marine conditions return midweek as a cut-off low moves through the coastal waters with winds increasing and wave heights building due to incoming long period westerly swell.

BEACHES

Issued at 338 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

Moderate to long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. A beach hazards statement is in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Sunday evening. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.