textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Near normal temperatures continue today and Thursday before temperatures warm Friday into the weekend

- Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Today and tonight)

A weak fetch of onshore flow at the surface is struggling to maintain patches of low stratus along the SF Peninsula and the Salinas Valley late tonight. Progressive ridging aloft has resulted in very dry air in the mid/upper levels, that will persist into the early afternoon. A sharpening trough to our north will reach the North Bay tonight behind the exiting ridge, with a weak associated moisture gradient out ahead. However, increasing low and mid-level onshore flow will result in a moderate increase in cloud cover this afternoon. Breezy west winds out ahead of the dry surface boundary will eventually become northerly overnight as the upper trough pivots east and south. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, maybe a few degrees warmer inland where less cloud cover is expected. Temperatures tonight will still be on the cool side across the North Bay and higher elevations across the East Bay Hills with weak cool advection behind the dry surface boundary late tonight.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)

Gusty offshore flow will gradually spread south across our area after sunrise Thursday. The strongest winds will be at higher elevations, especially in the North Bay and East Bay Hills, but not expected to exceed 40mph. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, right around normal in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday will be chilly once again with cooler air aloft lingering behind the exiting trough and surface wind fields easing simultaneously under clear skies leading to efficient radiational cooling. Thursday night should be an excellent night for star gazing. Progressive, yet high amplitude ridging bumps temperatures up Friday and Saturday, before the next trough arrives from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Consensus diverged in deterministic guidance from this time last night, thus confidence in timing, location and intensity of rainfall is still low. However, it still looks most of our area will see at least some light rain Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

High clouds associated with a cold front over far northern California will start to spill over the Bay Area and Central Coast tonight. Under these pre-frontal clouds, there will be another round of marine layer stratus impacts before the actual surface front moves through Wednesday night.

Vicinity of SFO...There is a 20-30% chance for MVFR ceilings through 18Z Wednesday before the low clouds start mixing out. If ceilings form they will likely be transient and temporary through the first 12 hours of the TAF.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...With a better exposure to the ocean, the southern terminals have the best chance for MVFR ceilings early Wednesday morning. Despite this, there is very little chance for them to drop below 1,000 feet due to the deep, ragged marine layer.

MARINE

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026

High pressure over the NE Pacific will continue to support a fresh NW breeze and moderate seas over the coastal waters through Wednesday afternoon. A mostly dry cold front will push through Wednesday night, followed by a push of strong to near gale force NW'rlys Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to a moderate NW breeze Fri-Sat, allowing seas to gradually subside.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.