textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Marine layer will remain in place each day, retreating to the coast each afternoon.

- Minor warming through Independence Day with near-normal temperatures.

- Brief cooldown early week, followed by renewed warming for the second half of the week.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 (This evening through Saturday night)

An exceptionally ordinary July day is on tap weather-wise for the San Francisco Bay Area and Central California Coast. We woke up this morning with the usual marine stratus blanketing majority of the area, including inland North Bay and East Bay valleys, and have progressed through the morning with an expeditious mix-out. Forecast highs will be about as close to normal as they can be for early July: 50s and 60s along the immediate Pacific Coast, 70s to around 80 along the San Francisco Bay shoreline, and 80s to around 90 for interior locations. All in all, a great weather day for the region.

This week's persistent troughiness over Western North America has started to weaken as an upper-level ridge develops over the Four Corners region. Locally, this will result in a few degrees of warming from yesterday to today, and perhaps an additional few degrees of warming for interior communities on Independence Day. HeatRisk for the holiday will remain in the Little/No (green) category along the immediate Pacific Coast and Minor (yellow) for the San Francisco Bay shoreline and interior locations. If you have travel plans elsewhere in California for the holiday weekend, HeatRisk throughout the Golden State will predominately be Minor (yellow), with a few exceptions for the hottest deserts with Moderate (orange) HeatRisk.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday)

The Four Corners upper-level ridge further strengthens for the second half of the weekend. For Central and Northern California, we should remain displaced enough to see any impactful influence as a weak shortwave and vort max will knock temps back by several degrees on Sunday. Monday will be largely a repeat with minimal day-to-day changes forecast. By the middle and end of next week, ensembles migrate and strengthen the upper-level ridge towards the Desert Southwest, which will result in renewed warming for much of California -- minus the coastal locations that will benefit from the marine stratus. Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both favor increased chances of above-normal temperatures for much of the Western United States as we dive deeper into July.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Classic "No sky July" as we head into the upcoming holiday weekend. Solid marine over coastal waters and inland valleys with depth around 1500 feet with a many CIGs below 1000 ft. CIGs are beginning to clear out of most TAF sites, with a chance of some scattering at KHAF this afternoon. CIGs return again early tonight with a mix of IFR to MVFR with moderate confidence on timing and CIG heights. Similar clearing pattern expected again late Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR this afternoon with NW winds sustained mid teens with gusts up to 20 kt. Slightly lower CIGs tonight after 07z, some of which may be IFR with lower confidence. Similar clearing time late morning on Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs scattering this morning with mostly clear conditions through the early evening. CIGs lurk in the bay all day before returning around 02z Sat; higher confidence in MVFR CIGs, locally IFR overnight.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 219 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

High pressure over the Eastern Pacific will maintain northerly flow over the coastal waters through the weekend. Locally hazardous conditions will persist over the northern outer waters through early Sunday due to strong breezes. More widespread stronger winds and seas will build starting Monday night into much of next week as a series of weather systems move by from the north.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.