textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday evening and again Thursday through Saturday

- Light to moderate rain across North Bay tonight through Tuesday; light rain across rest of Bay Area

- Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek; warming trend and above normal temps late week into weekend

- Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1251 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Today and Tonight )

Rain returns to the Bay Area and some of the Central Coast. A low pressure currently off the NorCal coast will bring rain back to the region early Tuesday morning and lingering into Tuesday night. Rain is currently being detect over the coastal waters and is expected to enter the N Bay close to sunrise and the Bay Area after sunrise impacting the AM commute. The best forcing and moisture will be over the N Bay with chance for moderate rain. The farther south you go rain becomes more light with interior Central Coast receiving no rain. Rain totals remain the same: highest across the coastal N Bay Mts 0.5-0.75". The rest of the North Bay and the Santa Cruz Mountains will see 0.25-0.5" while the remainder of the Bay Area sees less than a tenth of an inch.

The real wildcard in all of this today will be the chance for thunderstorms. As the low pressure moves into the N Bay coastal waters this afternoon it will usher in some cold air aloft. This will help to destabilize the atmosphere - higher CAPE/ML CAPE and favorable lapse rates for thunderstorm development. Shear parameters on the latest guidance are still on track to promote the potential for rotating cells/waterspouts. The obvious concern would be any waterspouts moving inland. Thankfully, once the low moves inland the overall convective environment fades pretty quick.

Showers will last into the first part of tonight for most of the CWA with the exception of the interior Central Coast.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1159 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026 (Wednesday through next Monday)

Chamber of commerce type of weather returns for the long term forecast. High pressure build in behind the departing rain-maker from Tuesday. A warming and drying trend kicks off on Wednesday and counties well into the weekend. Temperatures will initially be seasonably cool on Wednesday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s, but by Saturday highs soar into the 70s and lower 80s or 10-15 degrees above normal. Relatively clear skies will lead to cool overnight lows during the long term, but nothing too cold.

Taking a peek beyond the long term period looks interesting. A lot can happen between now and then, but early indications show the storm door may open and remain open well into the middle of November. CPC keep the 6-10 and 8-14 day above normal temps and above normal rain. Atmospheric River guidance also shows a much more active EPac with the potential for ARs to impact the region. Be sure to follow for future updates.

Based on the latest tidal information and predicted surge another round of Coastal Flood Advisories may be need Wednesday through Monday. Initially with minor flooding then more moderate over the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 934 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

VFR except for a few areas of hazy/haze /MVFR-IFR/ conditions in the East Bay continues tonight then cloud ceilings will steadily lower to MVFR Tuesday with showers developing mainly Tuesday up through frontal passage Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR with steadily lowering cloud ceilings and showers developing Tuesday. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 knots tonight and Tuesday morning then shifting to southwesterly 12 to 22 knots 19z Tuesday then becoming light and variable Tuesday evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR with steadily lowering cloud ceilings and showers Tuesday. Light and variable to light southeasterly winds tonight and Tuesday. Wind shifting to westerly near 10 knots late Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1141 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

Seas will continue to build across the outer waters tonight through Wednesday morning, becoming rough and bringing hazardous conditions for small craft. Gentle to moderate northwesterly breezes will increase and back tonight to become moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain moves in Tuesday with this system, bringing with it a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms north of Pigeon Point. Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas will prevail Wednesday through Friday.

BEACHES

Issued at 1229 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches Monday and Tuesday as long period (15-19 second) northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean!

Sarment

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.