textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Warming trend continues through the end of the work week with above normal temperatures peaking Friday

- Coastal Flooding Advisory remains in effect through 4 PM today for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay

- Elevated fire weather conditions due to moderate offshore flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations mid to late week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 219 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (This evening through Thursday night)

Weak offshore flow today offers little to see on satellite with bright sunny skies area wide. Offshore ridging over the EPAC is helping to lift temperatures to near normal for most locations today. We're seeing breezy winds across higher elevations, that have peaked between 20-25 MPH so far this afternoon. We're not expecting winds to exceed those speeds for the remainder of the day. While we don't have a a FWW or RFW out, we are messaging elevated fire weather concerns across our area, especially where the gustiest winds are at higher elevation locations in the North Bay and East Bay Hills due to critically dry fuels today and through the remainder of the week. Expect another night of clear skies as offshore erodes any marine layer influence overnight. Radiational cooling with the clear skies will result in some cool spots in interior valley locations, while at higher elevations we'll see warmer spots from thermal belting above 1000ft.

LONG TERM

Issued at 219 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday)

Elevated to near critical fire concerns continue through the remainder of the week into the beginning of the weekend on Saturday with similar warm, dry and windy conditions especially at higher elevations. The offshore flow, thermal belting and warmer daytime temperatures will result in continued poor overnight recovery and even worse daytime retention through Saturday across the interior. By Sunday, a notable pattern change will shift us back to widespread onshore flow, while a cold front drops temperatures considerably by Sunday afternoon into the beginning of next week. The trough associated with the pattern change will also bring increasing chances for scattered light rain beginning later Monday into Tuesday. The position of the upper level low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will determine where the most rain falls, currently focused primarily on the Central Coast with less than a 0.25" between late Monday and Wednesday expected at most.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing tonight. Low confidence in HAF getting fog and low stratus. If it does happen, the most likely period for development would be 08-11Z before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Light winds persist overnight, before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light winds overnight will turn offshore Thursday morning before moderate northwest flow resumes in the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light to gentle offshore winds persist overnight into Thursday morning before the moderate northwest flow resumes afternoon.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Moderate seas persist across the outer waters through Friday while the inner waters see slight to moderate seas. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which should lead to building seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 502 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. The main areas of concern will be for the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills. The strongest winds look to be over the North Bay Interior Mountains where gusts 30-40 mph are possible, perhaps up to 45mph or higher for the highest elevations. The East Bay Hills will be breezy as well, but may be closer to 25-35 mph with locally higher gust for exposed ridges and areas of higher terrain. Both areas will be dry with poor overnight RH recovery, which combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...None.