textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026

- Breezy and gusty winds return Friday into the weekend

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend

- Elevated fire weather conditions Friday through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts

- Blustery winds for all beaches Friday into the weekend and hazardous beach conditions for west facing beaches conditions Friday through Monday morning.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 (Friday through Sunday Night)

Zonal flow today with high pressure over the Pacific and upper level troughing sliding into the northern PacNW marking the start of an inside slider pattern. Northwesterly winds will increase throughout the day with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. The Salinas Valley will see an increase in winds as well, with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. The forecast highs for Friday will be similar Thursday's, perhaps a few degrees warmer.

Saturday into Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough digs and deepens into the intermountain west and into then into the Great Basin. This will bring an additional burst of winds, which will have a more north-northwest to northerly component. Peak gusts up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. Locally higher perhaps close to 50 mph are possible for points at the immediate coast and the highest ridge points. The Salinas Valley will be gusty too, with gusts up to 25 to 45 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. Elsewhere, northerly winds may gust up to 20 to 35 mph. Timing for the strongest winds currently looks to be between late Saturday morning through early Sunday morning, peaking Saturday afternoon through the evening. Northerly winds, means a burst of drier air coming our way leading to elevated fire weather conditions for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast.

The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the Eastern Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday-Friday. Guidance shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms southwest of CA.

LONG TERM

Issued at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 (Monday through Thursday)

The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the Eastern Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday-Friday. Guidance shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms southwest of CA.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 928 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period for all terminals other than the Monterey Bay sites and KHAF. Gusty onshore flow will ease somewhat overnight for coastal sites and bayshore terminals, then increase again by late Friday morning through the afternoon and evening hours.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period. Gusty winds will ease overnight then begin to increase again late Friday morning through the remainder of the forecast period with gusts up to 35kts at times.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar timing for increase in gusty winds Friday morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to persist through the overnight at KMRY with a slight chance of LIFR by sunrise and clearing out by late morning Friday. Low confidence on KSNS developing MVFR cigs until sunrise and persisting through mid-morning Friday. VFR will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period once stratus cigs lift, with gusty onshore flow through the afternoon and evening hours.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 928 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

Gale-force northwest gusts will be widespread by Friday morning, continuing to increase through the weekend. A coastal jet will result in locally stronger gusts with occasional storm-force gusts possible. Strong wind driven seas are expected to be between 12 to 19 feet. The strong winds peak on Sunday and will steadily diminish into the beginning of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM PDT Thu May 14 2026

Fire weather concerns increase in the late week. Gusty offshore winds build on Friday and strengthen through the weekend with peak gusts above 30 mph for most areas and around 40 to 50 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the interior regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow continues into the work week.

BEACHES

Issued at 250 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast from 3 PM Friday through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean.

RGass

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-509-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.