textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

- High astronomical tides combined with storm surge will bring substantial tidal flooding through Sunday

- Strong southerly winds tonight into Saturday morning

- Chance of thunderstorms tonight through the weekend

- Daily rain showers expected through Monday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1218 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026 (This evening through Saturday)

It has been fairly quite late this morning and is expected to remain so through the afternoon ahead of our next approaching system that is due to arrive late this evening and through Saturday morning. Southerly winds are forecast to increase this afternoon and remain gusty through at least Saturday afternoon. Sustained southerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph (locally stronger in the highest elevations) will remain possible through Saturday afternoon along the coast and in the higher terrain. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible late this evening and into early Saturday morning as surface based CAPE reaches up to 250 J/kg, most notability around the North Bay. Along with this, as the main rain band moves across the region it will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely Saturday a colder airmass drops southward across the region in wake of the earlier frontal passage. This is when forecast models suggest 250-750 J/kg of surface based CAPE. The greatest potential looks to be over the North Bay were we are expected the higher end of the above mentioned values will be placed late Saturday morning and into the evening. Thus, cannot rule out landfalling water spouts across this region. This is also where there is a Marginal Risk for severe weather with a general mention from the Storm Prediction Center across the remainder of the region.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1218 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday)

Thunderstorm potential will continue into Monday as reinforcing cold fronts move through the region. The greatest potential currently looks like early Sunday morning through the afternoon and again Monday afternoon. Given the breaks between these systems, we don't currently anticipate widespread flooding. However, any heavier shower or thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy rain, small hail, and the potential for funnel clouds/water spouts.

Conditions look to remain cool and unsettled through the first half of next week, yet not nearly as wet as late this week and into to the weekend. There remain differences in the ensemble guidance making things difficult to pinpoint this far out. However, there is good confidence that we will trend drier and cooler than normal for late next week and into the following weekend (January 10-11). This is also being captured by the 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 506 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

Stronger southeasterly winds and gusts are arriving along the next front. Widespread rains will reduce visibilities this evening and into the night as the front moves through the area. Winds remain gusty in the post-frontal environment with less-organized lines of showers and a few storms moving through the area overnight. Airspace above the marine environment will see the better chances for storms, but some will make their way over land. The current forecast shows rain chances reducing across the board in the late morning, but rebuilding into that afternoon for all but the Monterey Bay. Winds remain mostly southerly into Saturday afternoon, but reduce and become much less gusty. Cloud cover mostly sticks to the mid-levels through the TAF period with exceptions being periods of MVFR-level clouds in the North Bay, SJC, HAF,and at MRY.

Vicinity of SFO...Southeast winds are increasing with gusts above 30 kts expected into early Saturday morning. Rain chances increase through the evening causing reductions in visibilities from the moderate to, at times, elevated rain rates. Rain turns to spottier showers in the late night with slight chances for storms possible. Rain chances reduce in the late morning, but rebuild into the late afternoon as gusts cut off.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate showers are arriving along the edge of the front with breezy to gusty southeasterly to easterly winds. Visibilities will lower as these showers come through the area, with CIGS falling to MVFR levels at MRY into the night and through the early morning. Rain chances and winds reduce into early Saturday afternoon. Shower chances rebuild again into Saturday night.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 506 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

Gale force winds are spreading across the coastal waters with localized storm force winds expected across the northern outer waters and along the Big Sur Coast. Winds diminish slightly Saturday with gale force winds across the northern waters and near gale force winds elsewhere. Seas build to 12 to 16 feet this weekend before abating early next week. Moderate rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms continues through the weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 1218 PM PST Fri Jan 2 2026

A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the San Francisco Bay through Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Pacific Coast and Monterey Bay through Sunday. Perigean spring tides (king tides) will impact the region through Sunday. This is due to the combination of the full moon on 1/3, lunar perigee on 1/1, and perihelion on 1/3. In other words the earth, sun and moon are lined up and close to each other. In addition to the high astronomical tide, the incoming low pressure system will bring strong southerly winds, generating some storm surge, particularly on Saturday morning. The combination of these factors will bring moderate coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways during high tide through Sunday.

On Friday, the San Francisco tidal gauge recorded 2.26 ft of inundation. Looking ahead, high tide is expected to be 2.5 ft above normal at 10:26 AM Saturday and 1.9 ft above normal at 11:18 AM Sunday. These predictions include up to 1.3 feet of storm surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. A reasonable worse case scenario (10% exceedance chance) is 2.7 ft of inundation on Saturday. The all time record is 2.8 ft from 1/27/1983. 2.5 ft hasn't been reached since 1998. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506-508.

Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-502>505-509-512- 514>518-528>530.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Sunday for CAZ505-509-529- 530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.