textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Rain arrives today through Monday

- High surf conditions through Tuesday morning

- Impactful system arriving Wednesday through Thursday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026 (Today and Monday)

High clouds are streaming over the Bay Area and Central Coast. These are precursors to a frontal band of rain stemming from a low that is situated off the coast of British Columbia. A glance at the radar returns from Eureka shows a preview of what we can expect, namely a period of steady if rather light rain coming through while an embedded narrow cold frontal rain band (NCFR) brings a burst of more intense rainfall. Later this morning, the front should enter the North Bay and crawl southwards, coming into the SF Bay Area in the afternoon hours and the South Bay and Monterey Bay regions during the evening. As the front crawls through the region, it decouples from the parent low, which travels northward towards Alaska, and a new low forms within the Great Basin. This might account for some of the slowing trend seen in the high resolution models, where the steady rainfall could linger late into the night. Areas of the interior East Bay, South Bay, and Central Coast could very well wake up on Monday morning to find that the steady rain continues to impact their morning commutes. Meanwhile, scattered post-frontal showers are possible along the coastal areas behind the front. The band of rain moves out of the interior Central Coast Monday afternoon. Winds will continue to flow from the south until the front passes over, when to will switch to the northwest. Wind impacts will not be as strong as those from last Friday's system; gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible along the coast, through favored gaps and passes, and at the ridgelines. Rainfall totals from this system range from 1-1.25" in the Sonoma Coastal Ranges, 0.5-1" in the central SF Bay Area, Sonoma and Marin Counties, and Santa Cruz County, 0.25-0.5" in the interior East Bay and southern Santa Clara Valley, and the northern parts of the Central Coast, and 0.1-0.25" in the southern reaches of Monterey County.

Lows this morning will range from the middle to upper 40s in the inland valleys, the upper 30s to lower 40s in the coldest spots of the interior Central Coast, the upper 40s to lower 50s near the Bays, and the middle 50s near the Pacific coast. Highs today will lie in the middle to upper 60s for the lower elevations of the Central Coast and SF Bay Area south of the Golden Gate and Carquinez Strait, the upper 50s to lower 60s across the North Bay valleys, and the lower to middle 50s in the higher elevations. On Monday, morning lows drop to the lower to middle 40s in the North Bay valleys, while highs in the lower elevations will cool to the upper 50s to lower 60s.

A High Surf Warning continues through 4 AM this morning, with a High Surf Advisory extending from that time out through Tuesday morning as breaking waves of 20 to 25 feet are still coming through the waters. Favored breakpoints could see waves of 25 to 35 feet. These waves are less energetic than the ones we saw on Saturday, which ended up flooding portions of Pacifica and damaging Capitola Pier, but remain hazardous to potential swimmers, could still knock unaware people into the water, and continue to feed an increased risk of rip currents. Hopefully the rainfall will discourage too much beach travel, but those who do travel to the beach are strongly encouraged to stay away from the water's edge, keep off of rocks, jetties, and piers, and never turn their backs to the ocean. See the BEACHES section for more information.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026 (Monday night through Saturday)

A lull in the rainfall arrives Monday night into Tuesday, with highs remaining cool across the region. Cold temperature products (Frost Advisories and/or Cold Weather Advisories) are possible for Tuesday morning, as lows in the inland valleys drop into the middle 30s to lower 40s, which could bring dangerous conditions to people living outdoors and sensitive plants, especially when combined with the recent rainfall making the body feel cooler.

Another system comes into the region beginning late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday, Thursday, and potentially early Friday. This system is looking to be more impactful than the previous two. On one hand, the associated low pressure system is expected to slow down as it approaches California. The frontal rain band would thus move slower as well, allowing for more rainfall to accumulate at any particular location. On the other hand, as the low comes into the state, it brings with it a strong jet at the 500 mb level that's aimed at the northern half of California. Model guidance suggests that the jet could bring winds of 60 to 70 knots aloft as it comes across the SF Bay Area and Central Coast. This would support wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph at the valley floors and raise the possibility of Wind Advisories for the coastal, Bayshore, and higher elevation regions. In addition, with prior rainfall from the systems that came before the midweek system arrives, flooding concerns will increase as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull. This is in addition to a model trend of remarkably higher rainfall totals across the region from this system compared to the one we saw last Friday and the one that's expected to arrive today. Although there's still time for the final rain total to fluctuate, the current forecast suggests 2 to 3 inches of rain across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast while the coastal ranges see 3 to 5 inches of rain. As a final note, the chance for thunderstorms has also continued to increase and probabilities reach as high as 20-30% during Wednesday and Thursday. The synoptic setup would favor convective activity with a cold core low right over or very close to the Bay Area and Central Coast, robust moisture flow, and the combination of frontal and terrain-driven lift.

The weather pattern remains active towards the end of, and beyond, the seven day outlook, with a lean towards precipitation totals above seasonal averages into the final week of November.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

Currently VFR across the board with conditions to deteriorate by mid to late Sunday morning. A cold front will approach the region overnight with light, southerly winds continuing. Winds strengthen slightly ahead of frontal passage before shifting westerly to northwesterly after passage occurs. Rain chances increase first across the North Bay early Sunday morning and by the late morning/afternoon hours for the rest of the Bay Area. Rain will reach the Central Coast later in the evening. Reductions in visibility and decreases in ceiling heights are likely as the bulk of the rain moves in. Showers will become more scattered in nature by late Sunday and continue into Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. MVFR conditions return by late tomorrow morning/early afternoon as a cold front and rain approach the region. Southerly winds will gradually shift west to northwesterly throughout the day. Rain looks to continue through the end of the TAF period, becoming more scattered in nature around or after 12Z Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Moderate southerly winds continue through the short term with winds shifting more northwesterly towards the end of the TAF period. Rain chances increase after 00Z and continue through the rest of the night. Reductions in visibility and ceiling heights are likely as showers start to arrive.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

Moderate to fresh southerly winds continue across the coastal waters as a cold front approaches from the north. Expect fresh to strong winds to become more widespread overnight and continuing into Sunday with widespread rain. Very hazardous marine conditions and high seas continue into early next week. Significant wave heights have come down slightly from their earlier peak but will remain between 15 to 20 feet through Monday before subsiding Tuesday. Wave heights build again Wednesday into late week as a strong low pressure system moves through the coastal waters and brings widespread rain, near gale to gale force winds, and potential for thunderstorms.

BEACHES

Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

The High Surf Advisory has been issued, and will go into effect after the expiration of the High Surf Warning at 4 AM through Tuesday morning. Long period swells 12 to 16 feet high at 14 to 16 seconds are still coming through the coastal waters. Through the Advisory period, breaking waves of 20-25 feet are expected with occasional sets of 25-35 feet likely at favored breakpoints, including Mavericks Beach. These waves are less energetic than the ones we saw on Saturday, which ended up flooding portions of Pacifica and damaging Capitola Pier, but remain hazardous to potential swimmers, could still knock unaware people into the water, and continue to feed an increased risk of rip currents. The risk of drowning remains high. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean.

DialH

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

High Surf Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PST this afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.