textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Moderate HeatRisk in the interior through Monday with some patches lingering through the next week

- Near critical fire weather threat across the interior North and East Bays, and the Diablo and Santa Lucia ranges through Monday

- Hazardous beach conditions across the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the afternoon

- Strong and gusty winds develop over coastal waters north of Pt Reyes through Sunday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1220 PM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)

The satellite picture reveals more extensive stratus coverage offshore compared to yesterday at this time, and patches of cloud persist across the coast of the Marin Headlands and the Monterey Bay region, where an eddy over the bay is keeping the stratus in place for a little while longer. The marine layer remains relatively compressed and stratus coverage will be rather limited tonight owing to a couple factors including an approaching weak cold front and possible bursts of offshore wind.

The weather pattern continues to be dominated by the high pressure system centered over the Desert Southwest and extending over the state, which is leading to widespread temperatures above the seasonal averages today. Highs today range from the upper 80s to middle 90s in the inland valleys today, with warm spots in the far interior North Bay, the eastern part of Contra Costa County, and southern Monterey and San Benito Counties seeing highs reaching the triple digits (up to 107 in southern Monterey County). Elsewhere, highs along the bays range from the middle 70s to the middle 80s, while the Pacific coast hovers in the middle 60s to lower 70s. On Sunday, morning lows range from the middle 50s to lower 60s in the lower elevations, to the middle 60s to the lower 70s in the higher elevations, and expect highs to be broadly similar to today's, possibly a couple degrees warmer in some spots.

A weak cold front currently off the coast of California, and associated with an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, will help tighten the north- south pressure gradient as it comes into the northern Bay Area and the adjacent waters before dissipating, with the latest model projections putting tonight's peak SFO-ACV gradient in the -7 to -8 mb range. A gradient this strong will help mix out the stratus and promote stronger winds in the coastal waters, with gale force gusts widespread and isolated storm force gusts possible. Fortunately these strong winds remain generally parallel to the coast, but a weak offshore push is possible tonight across the North Bay and Central Coast, which could cause warmer and drier conditions to extend all the way to the coast. Another stronger pulse of offshore wind is possible Sunday night into Monday morning. Not strong enough for a Wind Advisory, but strong enough to raise the fire weather concerns.

Widespread Moderate HeatRisk persists across the interior regions into Monday with patches of Moderate HeatRisk persisting into the rest of the week. This corresponds to a moderate risk for heat related illnesses for sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with certain medical conditions, and people who work or live outdoors without adequate shelter or hydration. Some patches of Major HeatRisk, corresponding to a more widespread risk for heat-related illnesses, are also expected in the warmest parts of the interior Central Coast. Follow these tips to avoid heat-related illnesses:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

As a final note, beach hazards and fire weather concerns continue. See the BEACHES and FIRE WEATHER sections for more details. One less spark, one less fire, and never turn your back to the ocean!

LONG TERM

Issued at 1220 PM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026 (Monday through next Friday)

The heat continues into Monday as the trough passes by far to the north across the northern Rockies and western and central Canada, leaving the ridging pattern generally intact through the early part of next week. Subtle cooling is possible in the wake of this trough passage Tuesday and Wednesday, with coverage of the Moderate HeatRisk becoming patcher in the inland SF Bay Area on those days. Breezy onshore winds are expected each afternoon and evening, and the longer range guidance shows temperatures rebounding for the latter part of the week as the ridge rebuilds over the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Stratus is making its way out of the remaining terminals, giving way for widespread VFR conditions to prevail through the day. Onshore winds increase through the afternoon and ease shortly after sunset. The marine layer remains compressed to around 1000 feet this TAF period, therefore low confidence on how expansive it will become overnight. High confidence for SJC and LVK to remain VFR. High confidence for coastal terminals to develop IFR ceilings after sunset as well. Elsewhere is kind of a toss-up with most model guidance (LAMP, HREF, REFS, & NBM) giving ~45-50% probabilities or less, with the NBM and LAMP being the most pessimistic. As a result, SCT007-010 decks were thrown in. If the stratus expands further inland, BKN-OVC ceilings are likely to develop around the specified times of the SCT cloud decks.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate onshore breezes increase through the afternoon. Low chance for gusts in excess of 25 kt at SFO today, though sustained NW winds may increase to 15-18 kt and ease shortly after sunset. Low confidence on IFR ceilings at SFO and OAK tonight. Remained more optimistic this TAF period and hinted at the possibility for IFR rather than locking it in. If ceilings do develop they will likely develop later than last night around 10-12Z Sunday and scatter out by 16-18Z tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Clear skies prevail this afternoon with a typical diurnal onshore breeze pattern. IFR ceilings will impact both terminals around 03-06Z, though medium confidence on the exact timing. Coastal drizzle/fog is possible overnight into early Sunday morning and ceilings may intermittently drop to LIFR (OVC003-004). The stratus is expected to scatter out by 18Z tomorrow.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1155 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Widespread north-northwest strong to near gale force breezes continue through the weekend. Frequent gale force gusts persist across the northern waters and the Big Sur coast with a possibility of occasional storm force gusts. Rough to very rough wind driven seas, around 10-15 feet, continue to build today into tomorrow and gradually subside early next week. Northern waters will see the higher end of wave heights and winds. Conditions are expected to decrease through the first half of next week. The long period southerly swell continues to weaken through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 452 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through the weekend and potentially into next week. Temperatures remain around 10 to 15 degrees above normal across the interior through early next week with highs in the upper 80s to 90s. No major changes to the forecasted dry conditions. Daytime humidity retention remains poor across the interior (25-30%) with humidity values dropping into the 10s across the interior Central Coast, East Bay Hills/Valleys, and the higher elevations. Portions of the interior Central Coast may see daytime humidity values drop into the single digits this weekend into early next week. Overnight RH recovery remains poor at locations above 2,000 feet with values between 25 to 40% expected with some favored locations struggling to reach even 25%. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 97th percentile across the interior Central Coast and Mid Coast to Mendocino (North Bay) zone. ERC values are rapidly climbing across the Diablo-Santa Cruz zone (Diablo Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains) with values approaching the 97th percentile by next week. Diurnally breezy onshore winds are expected along the coast, mountain gaps and passes, and along the ridgelines each afternoon/evening. With near critically dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected, individuals across these areas are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.

BEACHES

Issued at 229 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Long period southerly to southwesterly swell continues through the afternoon, bringing hazardous beach conditions to the Central Coast and the San Francisco Bay Area. Southerly swell will weaken by late this afternoon with conditions to drop below Beach Hazards Statement criteria. Diminishing, low long period (1-2 ft at 13 to 14 seconds) southerly swell will continue into next week. Sneaker waves and strong rip currents will be the primary threats through the duration of the Beach Hazards Statement, with breaking waves up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach. This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.