textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1257 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Temperatures remain above seasonal average this week

- Dry weather through the 7 day outlook

SHORT TERM

Issued at 223 AM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 (Today and tonight)

The skies are still mostly clear early this morning, although a marine layer has returned to the coast and we could get a sunrise surprise of low stratus later this morning. GFS LAMP guidance shoes a 40-60% chance of low ceilings forming at MRY between 6-9 AM before clearing out in the late morning. Probabilities are similar at the other coastal locations, but the temperate still has to drop another 5 degrees or so for the air in the boundary layer to become saturated. Any low clouds will clear by the afternoon as high cloud coverage starts to increase. Temperatures are currently 5-10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, but max temps in the afternoon will only end up a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. That's still roughly 15 degrees above normal. While the seasonally extreme heat wave is over, 850 mb temperatures are still above the 90th percentile for this time of year and unseasonably warm weather continues.

LONG TERM

Issued at 223 AM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 (Monday through Saturday)

The overall pattern is dominated by zonal flow, with the Bay Area situated between the subtropical jet to the south and polar front jet to the north. This will keep the weather pretty benign. Temperatures will continue to run above normal, but noticeably cooler than last week. Ensemble clusters agree that broad, low- amplitude ridging is likely this weekend, but an embedded short wave trough will likely counteract some of those effects. The next chance for rain is around the middle of next week, and while it's still long-range, the probability has been increasing.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Low stratus is lingering along the coast and Monterey Bay while the rest of the area sees VFR conditions. Cloud cover erodes into the mid morning, leading to widespread VFR. Expect light winds to turn more moderate and breezy into the day, but weaken again in the late evening and into the night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. West winds build into the afternoon, becoming breezy, but likely staying below 20 kts. These winds look to last into the night before becoming light again.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... An eddy centered in the Monterey Bay will cause off and on MVFR CIGs through the first half of the morning. The cloud cover erodes into the mid morning, with the eddy dispersing into the afternoon. Expect moderate west to northwest winds to build into the afternoon, but these winds will become light for MRY in the evening, and SNS into the night.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 453 AM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Breezy to gusty northerly winds continue to affect the waters with gale force gusts in the northern outer waters. These gale force gusts reduce into morning. Hazardous seas are expected over the weekend as a result. Winds diminish and seas abate going into the work week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.