textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026

- Cooler Conditions Continue into Tuesday

- Cloudy and drizzly to start Tuesday with building winds.

- Widespread warming and drying starts Wednesday and continues into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1224 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 (This evening through Tuesday)

The marine layer continues to stay strong with the day starting off with nearly widespread lower clouds. A good amount of drizzle has been reported across the North Bay, but chances have reduced into the late morning. Higher clouds are also moving into the area, which could limit the erosion of the lower clouds, leading to cooler conditions. Expect the coast to remain cool under cloudy skies with highs in the 50s. Then the areas slightly inland will hover around the mid to lower 60s, and the far interior will be in the 70s with possibly one or two spots breaking 80 degrees in southern Monterey Co.

Overnight will begin the next pattern change as a cold front begins to pass through the area a low pressure following close behind. This will cause most of the region to see the coolest high temperatures and cloudiest skies of the forecast. The rush of cooler air along the front will off good chances for drizzle across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast, with the best chances being along coastal peaks. While overall precip chances look good, the overall totals look to stay below just a few hundredths of an inch. Winds will be breezy and gusty across much of the CWA during this pattern change, with the higher elevations and favored gaps and passes seeing chances for gusts peaking around 45 mph. The forecast continues to show the front exiting the North Bay early enough in day( and northerly dry winds around the low) for some slight and isolated warming compared to previous days, while the rest of the region remains cool.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1224 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Cloud cover erodes Tuesday evening as northerly winds build across the region in the post-fontal environment and the parent low pressure pushes east. Winds decrease into the night, but remain northerly. The drier airmass arriving to the region will allow for widespread lows into the 40s for Wednesday Morning, making it the coolest morning of the forecast. Models hint at a weak marine layer reforming as winds reduce, but it looks to not be as moisture rich as the last few days and barely moves inland.

From there, the models are in fair agreement over another warming and drying trend as a modest offshore flow develops as the low travels to the east. High temperatures see a notable rebound for Wednesday as skies remain on the clearer side, with temperatures steadily warming into the weekend. However, the weekend itself has a wide range of potential pattern change across models and ensembles. While some keep the warming trend and offshore flow due to modest ridging, others hint at a more zonal (west to east) flow developing and pushing onshore flow at the surface. The current forecast leans on the continued warming trend model outputs, but that can change quite a bit as new model runs publish and higher resolution models come into range.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM PDT Mon May 25 2026

Satellite shows fairly extensive stratus /MVFR/ coverage late this morning. Pool of stratus corresponds to a pool of chilly surface to lower level air moving in from the west. Slow mixing out of stratus is occuring on the inland edges and do expect some additional mixing to occur through peak daytime heating today. At the 925 mb level (~ 2500 feet) temperatures are chilly i.e. < 10th percentile for late May long term Oakland upper air sounding climatology. The marine layer has deepened and will stay steady tonight then deepen more Tuesday with the arrival of cool air advection up through 850 mb level (~ 5000 feet). Onshore winds prevail, SFO-SAC is currently 2.4 mb. Patchy light drizzle/rain is possible during the period. Cold front from the northwest brings reinforcing chilly air mass tonight and Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /MVFR-VFR/, along with temporary clearing possible by late afternoon though it's low confidence given current pattern. The 18z TAF carries stratus for the time being. West wind up to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon and early evening. West wind becoming gusty to 30 knots, possibly higher gusts post cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR-VFR/ along with temporary clearing possible in the afternoon though window of clearing if it occurs will likely be limited. West winds 10 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 knots tonight and Tuesday morning. Breezy to gusty west to northwest winds post cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening.

MARINE

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1130 AM PDT Mon May 25 2026

Light west to northwest breezes today become moderate to fresh northwest winds tonight and Tuesday. Northwest winds becoming strong with gale force gusts expected for the outer waters during mid-week. Expect building rough seas Tuesday and Wednesday, which look to last through the week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.