textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1123 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Hazardous beach conditions along the Pacific Coast through Wednesday

- Minor HeatRisk with below normal temperatures through Monday

- Areas of moderate HeatRisk across the Santa Clara Valley and East Bay Interior Valleys Tuesday through Thursday, peaking Wednesday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1123 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 (This afternoon through Monday night)

The first day of astronomical summer will be a textbook one for the Bay Area and Central Coast. A deep marine layer that penetrated inland last night will slowly retreat towards the coast through the morning. Stratus will linger at the coast through the day, keeping temperatures below normal. Elsewhere, expect near normal temperatures with minor HeatRisk. Heights will begin to rise today as upper-level shortwave ridging drifts in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will kickoff a warming and drying trend, compressing the marine layer in the process. As such, expect warmer conditions with minor HeatRisk and less stratus extent tomorrow.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1123 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)

High pressure across the Desert Southwest/Northern Mexico will strengthen and build northwestward Tuesday, continuing the warming and drying trend. Areas of moderate HeatRisk are expected Tuesday through Thursday across the Santa Clara Valley and East Bay Interior Valleys, with the greatest extent coinciding with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The marine layer will start out around 1,500 feet on Tuesday and compress to near 1,000 feet by Thursday. As such, less and less stratus extent is expected each subsequent night. This will keep temperatures at the coast below normal and temperatures inland slightly above normal. No records are in jeopardy.

Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that upper-level troughing will be along the West Coast by Friday, deepening the marine layer as a result. Temperatures will cool to near normal for the interior and remain below normal at the coast. By Saturday, widespread below normal temperatures are expected. A passing cold front will increase onshore winds Friday and into the weekend. Across the land, wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected across ridgelines and through gaps and passes. Over the waters, widespread hazardous conditions for small craft are expected. There is also a surge in PWAT to near one inch so drizzle will be possible, especially along the coast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Marine stratus beginning to erode toward the coast as evident in both satellite and surface-based observations. While MVFR to locally IFR cigs continue at most terminals, there is moderate to high confidence of clearing within the next couple hours for most terminals away from the coast, with clearing near the coast a little later. HAF may not clear at all. Lower cigs return after 02z Monday with less inland extent than this morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Marine stratus deck around 1000-1500 ft should scatter out over the next 1-2 hours. Winds will strengthen this afternoon with gusts to around 25 kts setting in around 21z and persisting until around 00z, before weakening again with a return to near 10 kts by around 03/04z. Stratus MVFR to locally IFR expected to return around the same time with moderate confidence on timing and cig heights.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Better chance of intermittent BKN cigs occurring through the afternoon hours.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Satellite imagery trends indicate clouds should break in the next hour or two at SJC, but will likely last a little longer at OAK where a return to VFR conditions may not occur until closer to 21z. NW/W winds will increase after 21z to around 15 kts with a few stronger gusts of 20 to 25 kts, mainly at SJC. Low clouds around 1200ft return to OAK 04/05z, lowering to around 800ft after 06z with moderate confidence. MVFR conditions forecast to return to SJC closer to daybreak, though confidence is lower whether marine stratus will spread that far inland. Any marine stratus should begin to clear again by mid to late morning Monday.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions due to marine stratus deck around 1200-1500ft should begin to improve at SNS in the next hour or so, but will persist for a few more hours at MRY. Moderate confidence in any afternoon clearing near the immediate coast (MRY) based on latest satellite observational trends. Moderate to high confidence in MVFR cigs once again pushing inland after 02z Mon, becoming locally IFR after 05z Mon. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 240 PM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026

North to northwest fresh to strong winds continue over the northern outer waters through early Monday morning, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft. Otherwise, north to northwest winds will be light to moderate over the remaining inner and outer waters. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast.

BEACHES

Issued at 308 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist for the remainder of the weekend, and increase to 17 to 19 seconds by the middle of the upcoming work week as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.