textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

- Strong northerly winds will bring widespread hazardous marine and beach conditions through Wednesday morning

- Cooler, unsettled weather conditions remain possible through Thursday

- Warming and drying trend Friday and beyond

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026 (This evening through Wednesday)

Cool conditions are forecast to prevail today in wake of the early morning frontal passage. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be in the middle-to-upper 50s to middle 60s near the coast with middle 60s to lower 70s across the interior with amble amount of sunshine. Speak of sunshine, there is also a chance of rain showers over Napa County through this evening as the forecast calls for generally 150-250 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Some of these rain showers (if they develop) may move across the interior East Bay this evening before the loss of daytime heating reduces the instability aloft. It will also remain breezy through the evening and into tonight, especially near the coast and in the higher terrain across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Onshore winds will continue with gusts of 30-40 mph with isolated gusts up to 50 mph across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills.

As the cut-off low pressure lingers over northern (today) and central (tomorrow through Thursday), we are forecasting unsettled weather conditions to prevail. However, wind speeds are forecast to diminish slightly. With similar conditions expected on Wednesday, the greatest potential to see more than 0.10" (15-25% probability) will be across the interior Bay Area and Monterey/San Benito County. There is also a chance of thunderstorms, yet they largely remain less than 15%.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

On Thursday, there is a greater potential for rain showers across the region with the mid/upper level cut-off low forecast to be just off of the Bay Area/Central Coast coastline. Thus, PWAT values are forecast to be around 1.00". However, the thunderstorm potential will be less as the atmosphere becomes more stable. The NBM probabilities of seeing greater than 0.25" remain around 10-25% from 11 PM Wednesday night - 11 PM Thursday morning. That said, the probabilities from the convective-allowing ensemble guidance is greater than 50% of reaching or exceeding 0.25" across places outside of the North Bay. All that said, looking like a wide range of possibilities with varying outcomes as far as rainfall amounts go, yet widespread flooding concerns remains very low. Just expect wet roadways across the region during periods of rainfall.

The low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather early this week will finally shift eastward with a shortwave ridge building in to the Bay Area/Central Coast. However, more zonal flow will bring a slight warming and drying trend to the region and is forecast to prevail into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving through the North and East Bays. Thunderstorms are most likely to impact APC with some potential to impact LVK as well this afternoon and evening. Shower chances generally decrease by late this evening but are expected to increase again tomorrow afternoon/evening. Gusty winds continue through this evening before diminishing overnight. Another round of breezy to gusty winds is expected across the region tomorrow but gusts should be weaker tomorrow than they were today (potentially peaking between 20 to 25 knots). Generally expecting CIGs to stay above 3000 ft tonight but CIGs may temporarily dip into MVFR conditions before rising again.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty NW winds continue through this evening with winds trending downwards overnight. Breezy to gusty winds are expected again tomorrow afternoon and evening but should be weaker than they were today. Chances for scattered light rain increase tomorrow afternoon/evening but confidence that a shower will directly impact SFO is low. CIGs are expected to return overnight but should stay above 3000 ft.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions this afternoon as MVFR CIGs have moved in and our of the region. Gusty onshore winds are expected to weaken overnight with breezy onshore winds expected to return again tomorrow afternoon. There is a chance scattered showers will impact MRY and SNS again early tomorrow morning but confidence remains low. High resolution guidance keeps storms tied to the elevated terrain but cannot rule out a shower or two making it farther north. VFR conditions return by late tomorrow morning with shower chances returning tomorrow evening.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 546 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

Fresh northwest winds will continue with widespread strong to gale force gusts over the coastal waters through tonight. Gusty winds will develop over the bays as well. Rough seas will build to between 12 to 15 feet tonight into late week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.