textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 313 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

- Cool mornings, but very mild afternoons into the next week

- Morning fog across the delta and interior valleys

- Elevated risk for sneaker waves and rip currents at Pacific coast beaches

SHORT TERM

Issued at 313 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026 (Today and tonight)

Not much to comment on the night so far, aside from some pockets of valley fog. Santa Rosa has found the dewpoint and with the slightly warmer water flowing in the Russian River, patchy dense fog has been affecting the area. Winds in the lower elevations have been very light through the night so far, while the mid to upper elevations have see some breezier conditions.

There wasn't much to get into the weeds over in the overnight forecast update, but some tweaks were done to the the winds to better reflect the upper elevation breeziness tonight and over the next few days.

Otherwise the forecast remains mostly the same: High pressure continues to allow for warm days, and cool (but steadily warming) nights. Expect lows this morning ranging from the upper 30s in the interior valleys to the low 50s along the immediate coast. Highs look to mostly be in the 60s for the Bay Area, but portions of the Santa Cruz mtns along with Monterey and San Benito counties are poised to break into the 70s.

LONG TERM

Issued at 313 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)

Thursday continues the warming trend both in morning lows and afternoon highs, and looks to be the warmest of the forecast as the high pressure continues to build. Highs will be only slightly higher, so nothing too extreme, but there is a chance that a spot in the far interior of Monterey Co could break 80 degrees.

The ridge pattern in the jet stream narrows into the end of the work week with the California coast sitting closer the eastern portion of the ridge. This change in pattern will allow for slight cooling, but will still keep conditions warm and skies mostly clear into Saturday. These clear skies turn cloudier over the late weekend as thin, high cloud cover looks to return Sunday.

Fog chances to return to the forecast on Sunday as well. A slight reduction in pressure will allow for the reestablishment of a very compressed marine layer, and a feed of Tule Fog from the Central Valley. The current forecast keeps, daily fog potential from Sunday well into the next work week, with fair model confidence.

Model confidence becomes a mess into the the last few days of next week. Agreements are fair for the ridge pattern to be broken, but the route to that result is differing across the models. The GFS models and ensembles have been calling for a cutoff low to move through the ridge and break it from the inside, which is certainly rare to see. Other longer term models show variations of a decaying ridge pattern as two stronger troughs build to the north. Either way, this does eventually call for some chances for rain to return in the last week of January. Though the path to get there and the magnitude of the rain still is a matter of debate.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 338 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. Dense fog has returned to STS and MVFR visibilities have made their way into APC and HAF. VFR is expected by late-morning, although haze (potentially becoming MVFR) will likely reduce slant range visibilities.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southerly flow. Moderate to high confidence on VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Winds will generally remain easterly and below 10 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at both terminals. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Drainage winds will back to become northeasterly this afternoon with the return of drainage winds this evening.

MARINE

(Today through Monday) Issued at 313 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail today. Winds will veer to become offshore Thursday through Saturday before northerly winds return Sunday. Moderate seas will prevail through the week with the exception of the northwestern portion of the waters where rough seas will briefly build in today into tomorrow.

BEACHES

Issued at 338 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches this morning and persist through tomorrow. Hazards include sneaker waves, strong rip currents, and large breaking waves. Sneaker waves are potentially deadly waves that suddenly surge much farther up the beach than expected, overtaking the unaware. They can sweep beach-goers into the ocean, roll logs and heavy debris along the beach, knocking over or pinning down unsuspecting beachgoers, and can result in cold water immersion, which can be deadly with sea surface temperatures in the 54 to 57 degrees range. Remain out of the water, stay off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM PST this morning through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...None.