textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot and dry through Saturday with a moderate risk of heat- related illnesses for interior locations today and Friday

- Critical fire weather threat for the interior North Bay and the East Bay Mountains through the morning with critically dry conditions persisting into the afternoon

- Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along south and southwest facing beaches through the weekend

- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay Area

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1202 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 (Today and tonight)

It is going to be a hot day today, the hottest of the week, but the more interesting setup in the short term is taking place through the overnight period as the fire weather concerns increase The latest surface analysis shows that pressures are beginning to rise over the Great Basin, allowing the low level pressure gradients to increase between the Great Basin high and the thermal trough over the state. A burst of offshore winds sets up through the night over the interior mountains of the North and East Bays as a low level jet comes into the region from the Sacramento Valley. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected across the higher elevations, with the potential for mountain wave activity downwind of the higher terrain features resulting in the possibility that gusts exceed 60 mph in these areas. As for elsewhere in the region, the low level jet loses its strong winds before making it to the South Bay and Central Coast, and within the valleys, the decoupling boundary layer will shield lower elevation locations from the strong winds.

In addition to the strong gusts, the offshore winds will result in poor overnight humidity recoveries, and as a result, Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 9 AM this morning across the interior mountains of the North and East Bays. People in the area should obey any fire restrictions/burn bans, extinguish any camp fires, secure tow chains trailers/RVs, and NEVER toss cigarette butts out the window. Remember, one less spark, one less wildfire. The winds will abate during the day, and will remain below critical fire weather thresholds, but people should still be vigilant as humidities remain very dry.

As for temperatures, morning lows will range from the middle 50s to middle 60s in the lower elevations, up to the upper 60s to middle 70s within the thermal belts. Today's highs will be the warmest of the week, with highs ranging from the 90s to the triple digits in the inland valleys, up to 104 in the warmest locations, while the Bays see highs in the 80s and lower 90s and the Pacific coast, the middle 60s to middle 70s. One thing to keep an eye on is the potential shown by some of the higher resolution models that a southerly surge to develop, and potentially reach as far north as the Monterey Bay region by the afternoon hours, which would definitely impact the temperatures forecasts for the immediate coastal areas. A Heat Advisory will come into effect today for the East Bay, South Bay, most of the North Bay, and the eastern side of San Mateo County, as Moderate HeatRisk develops in the area, corresponding to a risk for heat-related illnesses amongst sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic conditions, and people who work or live outdoors without adequate shelter or hydration. Follow these tips:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

High astronomical tides combined with swell and thermal-driven surge will result in minor coastal flooding around high tide across low- lying areas near the Bayshore this evening. Coastal Flood Advisories are in place for the entire Bayshore this evening, as up to 1.2 feet of inundation is expected around high tide, which for the San Francisco tidal gauge is at 851 PM tonight. Finally, those people planning to go to the beach should be on the look out for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. More information is available in the BEACHES section.

Tonight into Friday morning, low temperatures might dip a little bit within the thermal belts, and the offshore winds will be much less strong compared to what we'll see tonight. If a southerly surge does develop, it will continue to spread further up the coast overnight.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1202 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 (Friday through Wednesday)

Rather unusual uncertainty continues for the high temperature forecast on Friday. As the previous forecaster noted, with the upper level trough moving to the east, the low level pressure gradient should ease and a diffuse trough coming from the north will attempt to encourage onshore flow. To this, add the potential for the aforementioned southerly surge to potentially re-establish a marine layer right at the immediate coast. All said, I am generally in agreement with the previous forecaster that a more structured sea breeze will develop on Friday and potentially a weak cold front comes through the North Bay. The Heat Advisory continues for the interior East and South Bays, where there is higher confidence for the Moderate HeatRisk to continue, and I can't rule out extensions of heat-related messaging into the weekend. This weekend will also see the ridge extending north into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, and some shortwave ridging possible over California, which could bring us a couple of bursts of offshore flow. Ensemble model cluster analysis converges on the ridge beginning to flatten early next week, and hints at the potential for more zonal flow or troughing towards the latter part of next week.

With high confidence in high astronomical tides into the middle of next week, the Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended into the early morning of Wednesday next week, and depending on the observed surge, some minor flooding may be observed along the Pacific coast over the next few days. Long period swells will also move through the waters over the weekend, leading to an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A strong high pressure system continues over the area. The ACV-SFO pressure gradient is strong at 8.8 mb (though it's beginning to ease somewhat), WMC-SFO is 8.9 mb and RDD-SAC is 4.5 mb supporting downsloping, offshore winds. SFO-SAC is weak onshore 1.2 mb indicating a surface trough is located in the CA interior. To the south near Point Conception satellite shows stratus is gathering and moving northward.

It's a high confidence VFR forecast today with exception of a few patches of morning low stratus/fog /LIFR-IFR/ along the immediate coastline. Northerly winds are gusty aloft; low level wind shear remains in the 12z TAFs for the morning hours until at least the RDD-SAC pressure gradient and winds have a chance to subside.

On the larger scale the strong high pressure system will gradually shift northward allowing a shallow, coastally trapped southerly wind reversal to continue making a run up along our coastline today. High resolution model output shows stratus /IFR/ reaching the Monterey Bay by afternoon and KHAF Airport by early evening. KMRY will likely develop a southwesterly wind in the afternoon, stratus /IFR/ is forecast by 05z in the evening. KSNS often sees the stratus first before KMRY does in this pattern. It's a challenging, potentially quickly evolving pattern with potential impacts to aviation in the near term. There are one or two pushes left to the NW winds over the coastal waters that'll be juxtaposed to developing SE winds moving up along the coastline, this pattern may develop fairly quickly. Sea surface temperatures have undergone a fair amount of cold water upwelling and the return of stratus clouds may quickly become a blanket over recent cooling e.g. protecting sea surface temps from solar input. High resolution model forecasts show stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ moving farther northward tonight and Friday morning. Partial stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ intrusion into the Bay Area is likely Friday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Low level wind shear until 16z today. West to northwest wind 5 knots becoming variable to possibly northeast 5 knots during the morning. Lower confidence regarding the afternoon wind, much depends on how well the coastally trapped southerly wind reversal develops. For now a wind shift to westerly is indicated for the afternoon post 21z today.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR except a patch or two of stratus/fog /LIFR-IFR/ this morning. 12z KMRY and KSNS TAFs lean toward the development of a southerly wind reversal arriving by afternoon. Stratus /IFR/ arrives this evening with a southerly wind reversal. IFR stratus prevailing tonight and Friday morning. Light and variable winds becoming southwesterly at KMRY and northwesterly at KSNS in the afternoon.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 349 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Gale force gusts linger in the norther outer waters while winds overall will weaken to moderate to gentle breezes through the weekend and early next week. Rough seas will steadily diminish through early next week as the winds ease.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A quick update to say that gusty winds are beginning to develop across the North Bay interior mountains, with the strongest gusts reported at the PG&E station Mount St. Helena West at 66 mph, while many stations in the North and East Bay interior mountains continuing to report relative humidities in the 20s. The Red Flag warning for these areas continues through 9 AM with poor overnight humidity recoveries and strong gusts contributing to critical fire weather conditions, while elevated fire weather threats continue tonight over the eastern Santa Clara hills.

From the previous forecaster: Increasing northerly 20 foot winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph are forecast late tonight into Thursday morning. With energy release components trending above the 85th percentile and overnight humidity recovery anticipated to be below 40 percent, a critical fire weather threat is expected to unfold. The threat will be greatest across the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills. Pending ignitions, extreme fire behavior and/or spread is likely during the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Winds will subside after 9am Thursday, however, afternoon humidity values in the teens to near single digits are forecast across interior regions. Minimal shading will help to cure fuels further in the afternoon and while wind speeds are largely anticipated to fall below 10 mph, fire spread will remain a possibility, particularly in areas with the favorable alignment of weather, fuels, and topography.

BEACHES

Issued at 100 PM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Long period swell will continue, likely during the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!

CLIMATE

Issued at 1235 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The following are the record highs for June 11th.

Station Record Highs June 11th

Santa Rosa 100 in 2019 San Rafael 97 in 1985 Napa 102 in 2019 Livermore 105 in 1985 San Francisco 92 in 2019, 1877 SFO Airport 98 in 2019 Redwood City 102 in 2019 Oakland Museum 99 in 2019 Half Moon Bay 85 in 2019 San Jose 99 in 2019 Monterey Airport 92 in 2019 Salinas Airport 104 in 2019

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-508.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-506-508.

Red Flag Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ504-515.

Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ505-509-529.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ510- 513>515.

PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.