textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through early in the week

- Gradual warming starting midweek, with increasing Moderate HeatRisk for interior locations heading into the weekend

- Elevated fire weather threat across the Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week

- Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents thru mid-week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1238 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 (Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery tonight continues to indicate marine stratus struggling to make a push inland. The SFO-SAC pressure gradient is around +4 which should result in an inland push by early morning, and clearing by late morning, possibly early afternoon for the terminals closer to the coast. Temperatures today are generally right around normal for this time of year, warmer than normal at higher elevations (~1500ft and higher). Breezy onshore flow especially into the gaps and valleys across our area will continue to dry fuels (see fire weather discussion for more details) and lead to elevated fire weather concerns, especially at higher elevations that will not see good RH recovery overnight. The most dangerous portion of the forecast both today and through the remainder of the week is the S-SW swell producing sneaker waves and riptides. One count had over 25 water rescues across our Pacific coastline Sunday, and likely more that didn't get reported to the media. Be extra careful and never turn your back on the water.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1238 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

Warmer temperatures are on the way, especially by the end of the week into next weekend with increasing odds of more widespread Moderate HeatRisk and potential heat advisories. However, there's still plenty uncertainty in the magnitude of the increasing heat. Cluster analysis maintains some troughing in our vicinity until late next weekend into the first week of August. Deterministic guidance struggled with Fausto this far out and expect that to continue with Genevieve. Depending how far north Genevieve tracks will determine how far north the persistent troughing over the EPAC gets nudged north and allows more impactful H50 height rises and thickness increases. The forecast remains dry throughout with the exception of possible coastal drizzle associated with the marine layer. Fire weather concerns will continue to increase through the extended forecast as fuels continue to dry and cure. Avoid any activities that could lead to a spark and ignition, fires that do start are likely to spread quickly.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The marine is shallow this morning, with MVFR cigs found around coastal Bay Area locations and IFR cigs around Monterey Bay. These clouds should begin to erode by mid morning, with clear skies by late morning for the majority of the region. Breezy onshore winds are expected to pick up this afternoon and evening with most sites being around 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 30kt. Winds begin to decrease after sunset and then the question becomes will the marine layer try to deepen tonight. Guidance shows it may similar to today, perhaps between 500-1000ft. Confidence for stratus return is highest along the coast and near Monterey Bay.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus is hanging out around the southern portion of the San Francisco Bay this morning, leading to MVFR ceilings at KOAK and KSFO. KHAF has just dropped their ceiling into IFR territory, which may bleed over to KSFO around or shortly after sunrise. Confidence is low in this occuring, thus no AMD occuring after this AFD posts, but it will worth monitoring and adjusting if it does occur. Given the marine layer is shallower this morning, expect clearing to occur by late morning, with VFR cigs holding through at least the early evening hours. Guidance beyond then, shows the possibility of stratus returning tonight, perhaps after 9Z- 10Z. Confidence remains low on the stratus given how tonight has panned out, thus hinted at the possibility of this rather than locking it in.

The other forecast concern for SFO will be the increasing onshore winds this afternoon. Look for winds to be around 15kt this morning and then increase to roughly 15-20kt this afternoon, with gusts up to 30kt expected. Winds begin to ease around after sunset, with gusts to 20-25kt possible until 6Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has filled in around the southern portion of the Bay, slinking down the Salinas Valley, and creeping into coastal Santa Cruz County. Look IFR cigs to hold through mid to late morning before clear skies return. Breezy onshore winds pick up this afternoon, where will gusts to 15 to 20kt at the TAF sites, locally higher down the Salinas Valley and the Big Sur Coast. Stratus looks to return later tonight. Confidence is medium on the stratus return time.

MARINE

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 534 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes across the inner and outer waters and the afternoon sea breeze will result in hazardous conditions for small craft. Frequent gale force gusts are expected along the coastal jet region of Big Sur with isolated gale force gusts along the coastal jet region of Point Reyes. Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday, building to become rough in the outer waters Wednesday lasting through at least Friday. A long period southerly swell from distant tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will continue.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 534 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Breezy onshore winds and critically dry afternoon RH through the week will translate to an elevated fire weather threat. This threat will persist through mid-week and potentially into the latter half of the week and into the weekend. The most likely region for starts and fire spread will be across the interior Central Coast where Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile. While morning RH recovery will moderate some through the week, the shallow marine layer will equate to generally poor overnight recovery for elevations at or above 2,000 feet through Wednesday morning. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre-danw hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may not diminish. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.

BEACHES

Issued at 145 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific will continue to generate 18-20 second (long-period) southwesterly swell which has reached the coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points (like Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach). This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise and can result in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through Wednesday afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.