textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1251 PM PST Tue Jan 6 2026

- Few showers exiting the region today, mainly over the waters and along the coastal ranges

- Cold overnight temperatures set in late week through this weekend; overnight lows in the 30s

- Otherwise dry pattern through the next week with hazardous beach conditions for Pacific Coast beaches Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1251 PM PST Tue Jan 6 2026 (This evening through Wednesday)

Current radar showing some isolated returns over the waters and coastal ranges. Marginal instability is evident in the relatively shallow Cu field present over some of the higher terrain. All in all should remain under control and any deeper vertical development isolated along the coastal ranges through this evening. Ongoing flooding concerns continue for portions of Sonoma county along the Russian River watershed and the Mark West Creek west of Santa Rosa. Flooding conditions are expected to linger into Wednesday morning along Mark West where a Flood Warning remains in effect until 8 AM. Clouds clearing out and mostly dry going into Wednesday afternoon, so starts our extended escapade with fair weather.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1251 PM PST Tue Jan 6 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday)

The main story in the long term is cold overnight temperatures beginning Thursday morning and lasting through Monday morning. Ensemble guidance is advertising high confidence in a high pressure ridge building over the EPac as a deep upper low slides into the Great Basin from Canada. This essentially promotes an inside slider setup where we'll have weak offshore flow, leading to a drier airmass overall and chilly overnight temps. As of this issuance, Friday morning looks like the coldest of the period with widespread morning low in the 30s. Inland valley areas such as Santa Rosa, San Jose, southern Santa Clara county, the San Lorenzo Valley, and the Salinas Valley all have about a 50% chance of reaching 32 degrees Friday morning. Otherwise there is high confidence of temps reaching the mid-30s in these areas with lower 40s anticipated along the coast. Some inland locations will likely be even colder with mid-to-upper 20s for southern portions of the Salinas Valley and inland southern Monterey and San Benito counties, as well as the eastern Santa Clara hills. Beyond Friday morning, overnight temperatures will begin to warm by a few degrees each day, returning to around normal by early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 344 PM PST Tue Jan 6 2026

VFR-MVFR conditions prevail across the forecast area. A few patches of fog /LIFR-IFR/ may develop tonight and Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Northwest to west wind 5 to 15 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots tonight and Wednesday morning. Winds shifting to onshore near 10 knots Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 338 PM PST Tue Jan 6 2026

A cooler air mass will settle in from the northwest tonight and Wednesday followed by another cold front arriving later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Northerly winds increase Wednesday becoming a strong breeze by the afternoon. The increasing northerly swell will coincide with rough significant wave heights and high northwest swell by Thursday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-530.

Beach Hazards Statement from late Wednesday night through Friday evening for CAZ529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PST Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.