textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 202 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Dry and mild through this week. Morning stratus returns.

- Gradual warming trend through Thanksgiving. High temps near normal or a couple degrees above.

- Confidence increasing in a drier outcome for the storm just outside 7 days.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 202 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025 (This evening through Sunday)

As stated, nearly copy/paste from yesterday with almost everyone within 3-4 degrees from 24 hours ago. Spread of surface obs showing a hint of a marine layer forming topping out around 1000 feet. Some additional hints of more moist NW flow as well as marine stratus starts to form of the coast of Sonoma and Marin counties. This stratus trend will likely continue southward as we hang on to the marine layer going into tonight. Slight chance of valley fog going into Sunday morning as well. Another great weather day Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than today.

LONG TERM

Issued at 202 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday)

Quiet and dry conditions continue through most of next week as a slight warming trend ensues under the influence of a broad high pressure ridge aloft. As we approach the end of the week, the ridge starts to break down amid very strong ridge amplification upstream into the Gulf of Alaska. The result a couple a days later will be a fairly notable southward dive of the jet stream and displacement of very cold air from the arctic into the mountain west and central plains. Guidance is starting to show more agreement on a more eastward trajectory of the trough axis, which would be the drier solution for us - potentially completely dry. At this point we're leaning more towards the potential of gusty offshore winds across the North Bay just beyond our 7 day period. As always, stay tuned to the forecast for the latest. Slight shifts in a system like this can mean very different things for us.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 935 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions have returned to most terminals as of this morning. Onshore winds will increase early afternoon before diminishing after sunset and across the Bay Area Terminals early Sunday morning. There is moderate confidence for the North Bay to see IFR/LIFR early Sunday morning with lower confidence for the Bay Area Terminals. Low to moderate confidence for MVFR/IFR (potentially lowering to LIFR) around the Monterey Bay terminals early Sunday morning. Onshore winds increase by Sunday afternoon with gradual clearing by late morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase by this early afternoon and persist through about 04Z Sunday. There is moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities to return around 12Z Sunday with slightly higher probabilities for IFR/LIFR at KOAK. However, cannot rule out IFR/LIFR ceilings and/or visibilities over KSFO early Sunday morning just before sunrise and slightly after. Onshore winds are forecast to increase by Sunday afternoon with clearing skies.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase this afternoon before diminishing after sunset. Moderate confidence for MVFR/IFR (potentially lower to LIFR) around 12Z Sunday. Expecting any low clouds/reduced visibilities to improve after 18Z.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 935 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

Moderate seas continue into early Sunday morning with high pressure building over our area and long period northwesterly swell leading to hazardous marine conditions. Wave heights ease through the middle of the upcoming week, increasing by the end of the week into next weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 935 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.