textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Minor to moderate coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore and Pacific Coast locations through the weekend

- Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through the extended forecast

- Potential for light rain Saturday and again next week

UPDATE

Issued at 906 AM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Rain showers continue to diminish over the mountains of San Bentio County and interior portions of Monterey County this morning. However, these areas are where we have the best chance for rain showers to continue throughout much of the day ahead of a cold front that is forecast to sweep across the Bay Area later this evening and then through the Central Coast overnight. As mentioned in Short Term discussion, this is when we expect rain chances to increase across the North Bay late this evening and then across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast overnight. No updates are anticipated to the ongoing forecast at this time.

RGass

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1048 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026 (Tonight through Sunday)

Lots of talk about Saturday's sensible weather the last few days and it's been a roller coaster. A few days ago it looked somewhat wet for the Central Coast Saturday afternoon/evening. Then those chances eased and actually shifted northward to the Bay Area/N Bay. The latest forecast has actually eased precip chances Saturday afternoon/evening everywhere in the CWA. In other words, much more optimistic if you have any outdoor plans Saturday afternoon/evening. Let's get into the details: the main weather players for the short term continue to be an upper low drifting slowly southward near the PacNW, an associated upper level trough south of the low inch its way toward the West Coast, and a moisture surge over the EPac (better surge heading into SoCal). Over the next 12-24 hours, the upstream upper low drifts farther south as the upper trough moves eastward and ultimately inland in CA. At the surface, a weak offshore cold front will follow the upper trough and move NW to SE Saturday afternoon/evening through the region. For the Central Coast, they'll be on the northern fringe of the SoCal surge so a few showers are possible during the day across the far interior. Bay Area and North Bay start the day dry and remain dry well into the afternoon and early evening. There after, light rain chances increase over the North Bay spreading southward Saturday night into Sunday. As the front moves inland it begins to fade and so do the precip chances. A few showers linger early Sunday, but Sunday afternoon looks much drier. All in all, outdoor Halloween activities look promising with only a few showers moving into the North Bay. Better precip chances arrive Saturday night. Outside of precip chances, temperatures this weekend look seasonably cold with highs mainly in the 60s.

This is still valid - A combination of high astronomical tides and surge from thermal expansion and low pressure effects brings the risk of minor coastal flooding along the Bayshore at the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays, and the Pacific coast, at high tide today. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 3:44 PM, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 3:59 PM Sunday, including around 1.5 ft of surge residual." The Coastal Flood Advisory drops off after high tide on Saturday for the Pacific Coast but remains in effect through Sunday for bayshore locations along the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1048 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)

Weak upper level ridging Sunday night into Monday with dry weather and slightly warmer temperatures. There after the forecast looks unsettled with rain chances returning. The upper ridge moves inland as another upper low approaches from the west. Next round of rain returns Monday night into Tuesday and lingers into Wednesday. By no means any big or notable storms, but precip chances nonetheless through mid week. Dry weather and warmer weather returns Friday and into next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 433 AM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Currently VFR except LIFR at APC. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the afternoon. Moderate confidence on rain showers tonight with the best chances between 05Z and 11Z. While the trend has been slower, there is not great agreement on the location and timing. Reasonable worst case scenario is they arrive earlier with activity continuing through tomorrow morning. Reasonable best case scenario is the column doesn't become saturated and thus it doesn't rain. While ceilings are expected to remain VFR, they will be low-end tonight. If a rain shower passes over a terminal, brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities are expected.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR and calm. High confidence in VFR and westerly flow prevailing through this afternoon. Moderate confidence on rain showers tonight which will be capable of briefly reducing the ceiling and visibility.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the afternoon; however, low-end VFR ceilings will likely prevail through the TAF period. Moderate confidence on rain showers tonight which will be capable of briefly reducing the ceiling and visibility.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 906 AM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Variable gentle to moderate breezes with moderate seas continue into early next week. By mid-week, northwest moderate to fresh winds are forecast with seas building to rough across the outer waters. The chance for light rain showers tonight into Sunday continue with another round possible Tuesday into Wednesday. A long period southerly swell remains this weekend and combines with a long period northwesterly swell on Monday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for CAZ505- 509.

PZ...None.