textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Rain arrives today through Monday

- High surf conditions through Tuesday morning

- Impactful system arriving Wednesday through Thursday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1225 PM PST Sun Nov 15 2026 (This evening through Monday night)

Light to occasionally moderate rain continues over the North Bay as the cold front moves through the region. More steady rain is forecast to move into the Bay Area around 1 PM, the Santa Cruz Mountains and the South Bay around 5 PM, and then the north Central Coast beginning between 7 PM and 9 PM and beyond into Monday morning. In wake of the frontal passage, post-frontal rain showers are forecast to persist through Monday afternoon if not the rest of the evening. Rainfall from this even will largely be beneficial, yet cannot rule out minor nuisance flooding in low- lying and poor drainage areas.

Southerly winds are increasing ahead of this front, yet are forecast to be weaker than Friday's system. Thus, expecting gusts of 25 to 35 mph along the coast and through the favored gaps and passes. Meanwhile, gusts up to 45 are forecast in the higher terrain of the Bay Area. Winds have already becoming northwesterly in areas of Marin and Sonoma county in wake of the frontal passage.

A mix of sun and clouds are in the forecast for Monday afternoon, yet isolated to scattered rain showers will still likely persist over much of the region into Monday night.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1225 PM PST Sun Nov 15 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)

From the previous forecaster: "A lull in the rainfall arrives Monday night into Tuesday, with highs remaining cool across the region. Cold temperature products (Frost Advisories and/or Cold Weather Advisories) are possible for Tuesday morning, as lows in the inland valleys drop into the middle 30s to lower 40s, which could bring dangerous conditions to people living outdoors and sensitive plants, especially when combined with the recent rainfall making the body feel cooler.

Another system comes into the region beginning late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday, Thursday, and potentially early Friday. This system is looking to be more impactful than the previous two. On one hand, the associated low pressure system is expected to slow down as it approaches California. The frontal rain band would thus move slower as well, allowing for more rainfall to accumulate at any particular location. On the other hand, as the low comes into the state, it brings with it a strong jet at the 500 mb level that's aimed at the northern half of California. Model guidance suggests that the jet could bring winds of 60 to 70 knots aloft as it comes across the SF Bay Area and Central Coast. This would support wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph at the valley floors and raise the possibility of Wind Advisories for the coastal, Bayshore, and higher elevation regions. In addition, with prior rainfall from the systems that came before the midweek system arrives, flooding concerns will increase as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull. This is in addition to a model trend of remarkably higher rainfall totals across the region from this system compared to the one we saw last Friday and the one that's expected to arrive today. Although there's still time for the final rain total to fluctuate, the current forecast suggests 2 to 3 inches of rain across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast while the coastal ranges see 3 to 5 inches of rain. As a final note, the chance for thunderstorms has also continued to increase and probabilities reach as high as 20-30% during Wednesday and Thursday. The synoptic setup would favor convective activity with a cold core low right over or very close to the Bay Area and Central Coast, robust moisture flow, and the combination of frontal and terrain-driven lift."

The WPC has added a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall from 4 AM Wednesday through 4 AM Thursday and a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) from 4 AM Thursday through 4 AM Friday for much of the region. This is highlighting the greater potential to see flooding concerns. An active weather pattern is expected to persist through the end of the month as the 8-14 CPC's Outlook shows that precipitation is forecast to lean above average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 936 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions as a cold front approaches from the N. Since the 12Z TAFs slowed down onset timing of rain at most terminals with transition to VCSH or -SHRA early Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR to VFR CIGs through this afternoon with rain onset 20-22Z. Gradual improvement by Monday AM rush. VFR Monday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR for most of the day with precip arriving after 04-06Z. Enhanced SE flow for SNS through the period as the front approaches.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 849 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

Another cold front will move through the coastal waters bringing unsettled weather with scattered light rain showers. Northwesterly moderate to fresh winds develop behind the front this evening. Very hazardous marine conditions and high northwest seas persist through early Tuesday morning, with significant wave heights between 15 to 20 feet. Seas subside slightly on Tuesday before building again by Wednesday. This coincides with when a strong low pressure system moves into the coastal waters resulting in widespread rain, near gale to gale force winds, and potential for thunderstorms.

BEACHES

Issued at 1230 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026

A High Surf Advisory is in effect now through Tuesday morning. Long period swells 12 to 16 feet high at 14 to 16 seconds are still coming through the coastal waters. Through the Advisory period, breaking waves of 20-25 feet are expected with occasional sets of 25-35 feet likely at favored breakpoints, including Mavericks Beach. These waves are less energetic than the ones we saw on Saturday, which ended up flooding portions of Pacifica and damaging Capitola Pier, but remain hazardous to potential swimmers, could still knock unaware people into the water, and continue to feed an increased risk of rip currents. The risk of drowning remains high. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean.

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MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.