textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Gusty onshore winds today, increasing for Friday and Saturday with east-west mountain passes as high as 50+ mph and marine impacts through the weekend

- An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a deeper marine layer with AM drizzle for Friday and Saturday

- Slow warming trend starting Sunday with near to slightly below normal temperatures by early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1233 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 (This evening through Friday night)

The marine layer mixed out a bit quicker today compared to yesterday, but satellite shows it stubbornly persisting across much of the north bay. Today is a transition period from the high pressure that brought above-normal temperatures earlier this week to a significant cool down that begins Friday with an approaching upper level low. Ahead of the system, a tighter gradient will increase winds across the region this afternoon with intermittent gusts up to 20-30 mph for many locations, higher in wind-prone passes. Temperatures will be similar to Wednesdays highs with coastal areas not warming much under a deeper marine layer and interior areas benefiting from slightly cooler 850mb temperatures as troughing returns. Heights continue to fall Friday with the marine layer deepening closer to 2000-2500 ft, significant enough for patchy drizzle Friday morning. Around the same time, winds will increase more substantially as the front moves through, and east- west passes could see gusts up to 50+ mph with many other locations gusting up to 25-35 mph. A much more significant cooldown is expected for Friday with temperatures falling 4-10 degrees compared to Thursday for most locations outside of the immediate coast. Low clouds will likely struggle to clear out Friday afternoon with decent moisture in the lower levels and high clouds will move in from north to south.

The winds will increase not just for inland spots, but also for the coastal waters. More information can be found in the marine section below as well as the Small Craft Advisory that will be in effect for most zones through Friday evening.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1233 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday)

Gusty onshore winds peak both Friday and Saturday as the low pushes down into Oregon, tightening the gradient further. Additional cooling is expected for Saturday with an even deeper marine layer ushering in widespread coastal drizzle and pockets of light rain. Saturday should be the coolest day of the forecast with clouds struggling to mix out in the afternoon and a slower trend to the movement of the low. While it meanders along the borders of CA/NV/OR, highs on Saturday should only reach the 50s and 60s for most spots, with low to mid 70s for interior areas, generally 10-15 degrees below normal.

Things shift a bit Sunday as the aforementioned low starts to move up into Idaho and Montana and heights slowly increase. With this, the marine layer will begin to compress a bit each day into early next week, and temperatures will slowly warm back towards normal. General model trends are pushing temperatures higher for next week, but ensemble guidance continues to favor weak troughing prevailing which would keep us a bit cooler. Should the latter prevail, the coastal waters may continue to be impacted by gusty northwest winds through much of the week, with marine hazards potentially prevailing.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 910 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Stratus will continue to fill in across coastal and adjacent valley areas through the night. Mainly MVFR, locally IFR, conditions expected. Elevated onshore winds prevailing through the night 15-25 kts at most terminals. Confidence increasing in BKN cigs remaining into Friday afternoon for some coastal TAF sates, including MRY and SFO, and potentially OAK. Similar bases Friday night with increased chance for -DZ closer to the coast.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR conditions prevailing. High confidence in winds gusting 15-25 kt through the night into early Friday afternoon (20-21z). Confidence increasing in MVFR conditions prevailing through Friday and night, including a chance of -DZ after 06z Sat.

SFO Bridge Approach...Same general wind pattern as SFO, though moderate winds remain more NW-W with gusts up to 25kt. Similar cloud pattern to SFO with increased chance of prevailing MVFR ceilings into the afternoon and evening on Friday.

Vicinity of OAK and SJC...Moderate winds (10-15 kt) remaining from the west at OAK and NW at SJC, maintaining through the night at OAK. MVFR ceilings at OAK...lower confidence in cigs reaching SJC, most likely 12-18z Friday. Higher confidence of clearing at SJC late Friday morning; confidence increasing OAK stays MVFR through Friday afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR prevailing through the period. Ceilings will remain on the borderline of low end MVFR to high end IFR and may jump between the two throughout the night. Moderate confidence in scatter out at SNS; increasing confidence on MVFR cigs remaining through Friday afternoon at MRY. Chance for -DZ late Friday night.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 848 PM PDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Fresh to strong breezes and rough seas will continue to develop tonight and persist through the weekend. These strong winds and rough seas will result in hazardous conditions for small craft across most of the coastal waters at times through at least the first half of next week. There is moderate confidence in at least occasional gales developing across mainly the exposed coastal waters over the weekend. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.