textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 116 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions today

- Widespread rainfall returns tonight into Tuesday

- Warming and drying trend kicks off Wednesday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 116 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026 (Today and tonight)

Surface high pressure will dominate most of today's weather with above normal temperatures and dry conditions prevailing. The only caveat to the dry conditions would be if an isolated rain shower skirts the North Bay. Nonetheless, no adverse impacts are expected from these rain showers.

LONG TERM

Issued at 116 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

A developing gale force low pressure system off the Northern California Coast will pull in moisture from the tropics as it heads toward the Washington/Canada border. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean IVT forecast peaks in excess of 500 kg/ms Tuesday morning, quickly decreasing as the moisture plume sinks south, with PWAT values forecast to break the daily maximum record. Even with rich moisture content, poor dynamics are expected to yield generally beneficial rainfall, especially south of the Golden Gate Bridge. Light to moderate rainfall is expected with low probabilities (10%) of exceeding 0.50"/hour which even then is exclusive to the North Bay. Ponding and slick roadways can still be expected. Any flooding will likely be more of a product of infrastructure (clogged storm drains, etc.) rather than the rain itself. No mainstem river flooding is expected. The pattern and the location of the low leads to high confidence that the North Bay will receive the highest rainfall totals as they will be under the influence of pre-frontal rain showers before the cold front progresses through. As such, minor flooding in low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas will be possible and if rain rates get high enough, shallow landslides will be possible. The source region of the moisture (off to our southwest) will result in the highest rainfall totals in southwest facing terrain with the help of orographic lift. Lee side valleys will get rain shadowed. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that surface high pressure in Baja California will quickly rebuild after Wednesday morning's cold frontal passage. A warming and drying trend will result, with temperatures climbing to 10 degrees above normal by Friday. Uncertainty arises this weekend in the evolution of the troughing over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The official forecast advertises a slight cooling trend with the passing of a system to the north of us.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 929 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

It's VFR with exception of low clouds /MVFR-IFR/ and light rain across northwestern Sonoma County. Forecast is near persistence tonight with a drying trend returning to Sonoma County Monday then rain redevelops over the North Bay and spreads southward Monday night and Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light southwest wind becoming light southeasterly to easterly tonight and Monday. Light southwest wind redevelops Monday night with light rain developing.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Winds southeasterly 5 to 10 knots tonight and Monday morning. Winds shifting to onshore 5 to 10 knots Monday afternoon.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 925 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

Southerly winds and seas diminish across the coastal waters except across the far northwestern waters. Rain chances continue across the northern waters then spread farther south Monday night through Tuesday night. Winds and seas increase Tuesday then ease by Wednesday. Dry weather prevails late this week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.