textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Cooler weather through Tuesday

- Coastal flooding during high tides through Tuesday

- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday evening due to sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves

- High temperatures gradually increase midweek, with above normal temperatures for the weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 147 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 (This evening through Monday night)

Quiet weather is being observed across the Bay Area and Central Coast, with a few cumulus clouds popping up over some mountains and stratocu over our southern marine forecast areas. Water vapor imagery shows dryer air entrenched over the northern half of the state, thanks to an upper level trough. Models, including the NBM, still hint at light showers for far southern Monterey and San Benito counties late tonight and into Monday morning though the dry air might keep it as virga or mid and high clouds instead. Outside of those precip chances, dry weather prevails for Sunday and Monday and it will be accompanied with cool temperatures.

LONG TERM

Issued at 147 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)

The upper level trough does barrel towards NV and UT late Monday into early Tuesday morning leading to some lighter offshore flow. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will be building and working its way into the region, leading to temperatures slightly warming. The ridge continues to build into the region on Wednesday which will kick off the more notable warming trend for the rest of the week. The aforementioned upper level trough looks to center itself over WY/CO with broad troughing influencing the Desert Southwest. The trough becomes a bit more longwave like for the end of the week, which could lead to a renewed chance for offshore flow with warmer weather. This could lead to a period of elevated fire weather conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Post frontal dry airmass led to mostly VFR this morning except a few CIGs at HAF,MRY,SNS. Dry northerly flow will persist leading to VFR all terminals through the period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Diurnal wind patterns.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1039 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Hazardous conditions persist over the coastal waters due to fresh breezes to gale force winds and rough seas. Strongest winds will be over the outer waters north of Pigeon Point. The strong winds and long period southerly swell will result in a confused sea state into the beginning of next week.

BEACHES

Issued at 1042 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Buoy reports this morning still indicated some solid swell entering the coastal waters. As such, still seeing an energetic the surf zone. Give the observed height and period isolated breaking waves 18-20 ft are possible at favored break points. Long period southerly swell will persist through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your back on the ocean!

MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm- Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.