textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Stay away from the beach!

- Very hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast today with breaking waves 25 to 35 feet

- Next round of rain and wind expected Sunday and into Monday

- Unsettled weather expected to continue into much of the upcoming week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 (This evening through Sunday night)

In wake of yesterday's frontal passage, isolated to scattered rain showers are forecast to persist across the North Bay and parts of the Bay Area through early evening as many of the CAMs (Convection- Allowing Models) are indicating them to persist. Otherwise, expecting a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day with temperatures slightly below seasonal averages.

This is all ahead of our next cold front that is expected to move across the North Bay between 8 AM and 4 PM Sunday, the Bay Area and the Santa Cruz Mountains between noon and 8 PM, and the Central Coast between 4 PM and midnight Monday morning. There are subtle differences in the timing of the front's arrival, resulting in broader windows of expected arrival times. Southerly winds are forecast to increase ahead of the front, although they are not expected to be as strong as with the previous system. The potential for thunderstorms is also lower.

Rain totals will range from 0.50"-1.0" across most of the Bay Area, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia range, 1.0"-1.5" in the Sonoma County coastal ranges, and 0.25"-0.50" across the interior portions of the East Bay and the Central Coast. Winds will be elevated, but will not be as strong as Friday's system with southerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible across the SF Bay Area, up to 45 mph along the coast and in the higher elevations. In wake of the frontal passage, expecting winds to shift out of the northwest and ease.

See the BEACHES section for more details, but to quote: "These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean."

LONG TERM

Issued at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026 (Monday through next Friday)

Another break in rainfall is expected late in the day on Monday and into Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds. By Tuesday morning, there is the potential for cold weather products (Frost Advisories and/or Cold Weather Advisories) as morning lows are forecast to be in 30s across the North Bay Valleys, southern Salinas Valley, and 40s elsewhere across the Bay Area and Central Coast.

Yet another system comes into the region Tuesday afternoon/evening and moves southward across the north Central Coast through Wednesday and potentially lingering into early Friday morning. It is still too early to speak about rainfall amounts, yet there is increasing confidence (as of this writing) of higher rainfall amounts compared to the Sunday/Monday system. There also appears to be greater potential for thunderstorms and stronger winds ahead of the frontal boundary. Best written by my colleague: "The flooding concerns will increase through the next few days as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the weather pattern remains active with a lean towards rain totals above seasonal averages into the last week of November.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 335 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR to prevail everywhere except HAF through the remainder of today. Rain and MVFR conditions return by mid to late tomorrow morning as our next system approaches. Rain will reach STS/APC first and gradually spread southwards through Sunday evening. Expect reductions in visibility and cloud height as showers move through the region. Winds shift more southerly overnight and strengthen as the front approaches. After frontal passages winds will become more westerly and remain breezy.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through tomorrow morning. Rain will approach SFO by mid to late tomorrow morning with showers reaching the airport by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Expect reductions in visibility and ceiling heights as showers move over the airport. Showers will become more scattered in nature by the evening hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light onshore winds continue through this evening before becoming more southerly overnight. A SE drainage wind will develop at SNS early tomorrow morning with winds are 15 kts expected. Winds become more S to SW by the early afternoon with rain approaching the Central Coast by the late afternoon/early evening.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 335 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

Moderate to fresh southerly breezes will becoming more widespread as a cold front approaches from the north Saturday evening. Fresh to strong breezes will develop tonight and early Sunday as the cold front moves through. Very hazardous marine conditions persist into early next week with high west-northwest seas up to 30 feet. Wave heights subside slightly on Sunday, but rebuild to high seas with the frontal passage. Expect wave enhancement near harbor entrances and bars due to shoaling. Widespread rain returns Sunday morning and continues into Monday as moderate northwest winds settle over the coastal waters.

BEACHES

Issued at 930 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

High Surf Warning: A High Surf Warning remains effect through 4AM Sunday. Pretty impressive buoy reports this morning with the highest sig waves exceeding 25-30 ft. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely at favored breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). Saturday's peak swell lingers through late morning before easing Saturday afternoon. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday. Will likely need at High Surf Advisory for Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):

The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast. Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20% of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly during high tide.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.