textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 505 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through early in the week

- Gradual warming starting midweek, with increasing Moderate HeatRisk for interior locations heading into the weekend

- Elevated fire weather threat across the Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1232 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026 (Today and tonight)

Upper level troughing holds over the eastern Pacific and into the PacNW today, slowly meandering eastward. Satellite trends show stratus forming along portions of the northern California coast, which should bring stratus to most coastal locations and down into the Monterey Bay. Uncertainty remains on how deep the marine layer gets tonight, though current thinking is it'll be between 500- 1000ft. Any stratus that forms tonight should retreat to the coast by mid to late morning with mainly sunny skies prevailing.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1232 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026 (Monday through Saturday)

We will remain under an elongated trough through early to midweek, leading to typical summer like days. Look for seasonal temperatures, breezy onshore winds each afternoon and evening, and the return of stratus. The marine layer should get to about 1000ft for the next few nights, with it a 500-1000ft marine layer by midweek for those along the coast. This is when we start to see high pressure over the Desert Soutwest build into southern and central California and begin pushing the trough and making it a bit more compact. Onshore flow should help moderate temperatures near the coast, as we go from a trough to quasi-zonal flow. Warmer temperatures will be expected inland, but overall temperatures will continue to increase as we head into the weekend. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk continues to look likely for interior locations.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Marine stratus is more organized than the past couple of nights. Our presently ascending weather balloon indicates that marine layer depth is around 1200-1500 feet, allowing for an influx of stratus as far east as the LVK. Area webcams do indicate that this deck of MVFR to IFR ceilings is thin and as such I anticipate that after sunrise, clouds will erode. Visibility reductions are anticipated to be limited to STS where river valley fog has arrived and occasionally at HAF. By mid to late morning, VFR is anticipated to return to most terminals, except HAF. VFR is advertised here after 21Z with low to medium confidence. Monday morning should feature a slightly stronger onshore push. Model performance over the last few days does lower confidence in the stratus forecast and if afternoon satellite trends are similar to the past few days, alterations may be needed.

Vicinity of SFO...Intermittent IFR and MVFR anticipated to persist through the morning push, but high confidence in VFR by 18Z. Onshore flow through the San Bruno Gap coupled with a slightly compressed marine layer will support wind gusts to near 30 knots. There is an outside chance that gusts over 35 knots could transpire. By sunrise Monday, stratus is anticipated to return as onshore flow is expected to increase slightly (tighter SFO-SAC/SMX gradient), though confidence is low in the onset time. Model guidance offers a broad range with the earliest time around 05Z. Overall, the model consensus is closer to 09Z and this timing would be earlier than the previous nights, lending a bit of confidence in this being a reasonable scenario. With the stronger onshore push, MVFR is advertised through the extended portion of the TAF, but additional refinements are probable.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has been slow to materialize this morning, but latest satellite imagery indicates a building deck of clouds along the bay. IFR, with intermittent VFR should be anticipated, especially at MRY through late morning. At SNS, IFR is expected to be more intermittent in nature and should arrive with the next hour. Tonight, a more typical stratus pattern should set up with MVFR/IFR returning between 02-04Z with IFR at MRY. IFR is a little less certain at SNS, so for now MVFR is forecast.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 302 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes across the inner and outer waters and the afternoon sea breeze will result in hazardous conditions for small craft through Wednesday. Frequent gale force gusts are expected along the coastal jet region of Big Sur. Moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday, building to become rough in the outer waters Wednesday. Long period southerly swell from distant tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will continue.

BEACHES

Issued at 911 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific are generating a long- period southwesterly swell which has reached the coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points (like Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach). Sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. This can potentially catch beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the cold turbulent ocean; hence the name "sneaker". Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! The Beach Hazards Statement has been extended through Wednesday afternoon for all beaches along the Pacific Coast.

RGass

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.