textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1251 PM PDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Gradual warming trend through the weekend with Moderate HeatRisk in the interior through the early part of next week

- Elevated fire weather threat across the interior North and East Bays, and the Diablo and Santa Lucia ranges through the early part of next week

- Hazardous beach conditions across the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through Saturday

- Strong and gusty winds develop over coastal waters north of Point Reyes this weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026 (Today and tonight)

What a difference 24 hrs makes. Last night we were monitoring heat signatures from the Woodside Incident and a few patches of stratus on the satellite. Tonight no heat signatures and stratus came back with solid coverage over the coastal waters and locally inland. Near-term hi-res models have a decent handle on the current stratus pattern. The marine layer has deepened overnight to near 800-1000 feet. Expect stratus to linger into the morning then fade pretty quick as a weak cold front approaches from the north. This cold front will be dry in nature, but help mix out the marine layer and set the stage for a rapid increase in N-S gradient. The bigger impact to today weather wise will be the heat, especially the heat across the far interior. Regions that are being impacted by the marine layer have the best chance of fully tapping into the 850mb temps in the upper 20C range. That would push temps above 100 again with the hotspots going for 110. Widespread HeatRisk of Moderate with some Major across interior Central Coast. Simply put, if you're doing outdoor activities away from the coast today be mindful and take some heat safety precautions. If you're seeking relief from the heat and want the natural AC at the coast you'll get it with highs in the 60s to 80s. Still energetic surf zone so use caution at the beaches. Beaches section below for more info.

By this evening and early tonight the cold front will enter the northern waters, but washout. The fading front will help to establish a rapidly increasing N-S gradient from SFO-ACV. Previous projections put the gradient near -9mb, but tonight's model guidance have eased just under -8mb. Despite the drop, the increasing gradient will mix out the stratus and ramp up the wind. Hi-res guidance still shows some dangerous Storm Force gusts north of Pt Reyes. Thankfully the strong winds stay mostly parallel to the coast. Aiding in less clouds tonight will also come from a weak burst of offshore flow over the N Bay and Central Coast.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

Subtle cooling each day from Sunday through Wednesday thanks to a flattening upper level ridge with a passing trough to the north. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior will decrease in coverage through Wednesday. Still expect breezy conditions each afternoon/evening with onshore flow. The exception will be a strong offshore flow burst Sunday night into Monday. Not strong enough for a Wind Adv, but definitely elevate Fire Weather concerns.

Longer range guidance and official forecast shows a rebound in temperatures Thursday and Friday as the ridge re-builds over the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Stratus is moving in across the Bay Area and Central Coast with CIGs largely IFR. Moderate confidence that CIGs will stay IFR but coastal sites will be more LIFR to IFR. Added in a tempo for IFR conditions to STS given moist conditions at STS and northwards push of Sonoma in Marin/Sonoma Counties. No major changes to stratus clearing times with models in good agreement of clearing between 16-18Z. Gusty onshore winds return during the afternoon/evening before weakening overnight. Stratus returns again tonight but current model guidance (emphasis on HREF) shows a smaller footprint than what we observed tonight. This is supported by the marine layer compressing to around 500 ft with CIGs largely expected to be on the LIFR-IFR border. Stratus returns around 03-06Z along the coast and around 10-12Z across the interior.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR CIGs continue through late this morning before VFR conditions return this afternoon and evening. LAMP guidance shows a low (<30%) chance of LIFR CIGs developing between 12 to 16Z. Confidence is higher that CIGs will stay IFR at SFO than drop into LIFR territory. Gusty onshore winds return this afternoon and evening with gusts to around 28 knots possible. Winds ease overnight with stratus to return around 10Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR-IFR CIGs continue through late this morning before VFR returns this afternoon/evening. Confidence is high that stratus will return this evening but timing confidence is low. An earlier arrival of stratus fits better with the pattern but LAMP guidance suggests a slightly later arrival of stratus tonight. LAMP guidance keeps stratus arrival closer to 06Z at both sites whereas stratus typically returns earlier (02-03Z). For now, kept an earlier return of stratus but this may need to be amended. Breezy onshore winds return this afternoon/evening before winds ease overnight.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 229 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Hazardous conditions for small craft continue across the coastal waters through this weekend. Widespread strong to near gale force winds persist across the coastal waters with gale force gusts across the northern waters and Big Sur coast. Occasional storm force gusts are possible across the northern outer waters today into tomorrow. Rough to very rough wind driven seas will build, particularly across the northern outer waters, to between 12 to 15 ft. Winds decrease and seas subside through the first half of next week. Weakening long period swell continues through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 452 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected through the weekend and potentially into next week. Temperatures remain around 10 to 15 degrees above normal across the interior through early next week with highs in the upper 80s to 90s. No major changes to the forecasted dry conditions. Daytime humidity retention remains poor across the interior (25-30%) with humidity values dropping into the 10s across the interior Central Coast, East Bay Hills/Valleys, and the higher elevations. Portions of the interior Central Coast may see daytime humidity values drop into the single digits this weekend into early next week. Overnight RH recovery remains poor at locations above 2,000 feet with values between 25 to 40% expected with some favored locations struggling to reach even 25%. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 97th percentile across the interior Central Coast and Mid Coast to Mendocino (North Bay) zone. ERC values are rapidly climbing across the Diablo-Santa Cruz zone (Diablo Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains) with values approaching the 97th percentile by next week. Diurnally breezy onshore winds are expected along the coast, mountain gaps and passes, and along the ridgelines each afternoon/evening. With near critically dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected, individuals across these areas are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.

BEACHES

Issued at 229 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Long period southerly to southwesterly swell continues through Saturday afternoon, bringing hazardous beach conditions to the Central Coast and the San Francisco Bay Area. Southerly swell will weaken by late this afternoon with conditions to drop below Beach Hazards Statement criteria. Diminishing, low long period (1-2 ft at 13 to 14 seconds) southerly swell will continue into next week. Sneaker waves and strong rip currents will be the primary threats through the duration of the Beach Hazards Statement, with breaking waves up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach. This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.