textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions in the higher terrain Monday

- Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning

- Cooling trend through Thursday will bring well below normal temperatures

- Up to a 10% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 (Today and tonight)

Upper-level shortwave troughing developing off the West Coast Monday will kickoff the cooling trend. The 1,000 foot marine layer will likely remain steady, at least initially, with drizzle possible in the mornings. The aforementioned troughing will result in an increase of onshore flow with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon/evening through gaps/passes and across ridgelines. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain coming off the heels of very hot and dry conditions. Minor coastal flooding is expected during the highest high tide (evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday)

A reinforcing trough Wednesday will bring widespread below normal temperatures and deepen the marine layer. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that heights and subsequently temperatures will fall through Thursday as it digs. An increase in monsoonal/sub- tropical moisture is bringing a low (up to 10%) chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms with ingredients seemingly only marginal as of now. Best chances look to be Wednesday through Thursday and would likely favor the far southern and eastern parts of the area as the conveyor belt of moisture stays between troughing to the west and ridging to the east. While confidence is low, this would be a high-impact scenario with gusty outflow winds and the potential for new fire starts. It's going to be a fair fight going into the weekend between a reinforcing trough off the West Coast and a rebuilding ridge across a majority of the rest of CONUS. The official forecast has a slight warming trend into the weekend, most noticeable across the Interior Central Coast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Lingering IFR-LIFR stratus is dissipating across the North Bay valleys, the San Francisco Bay, and the northern Salinas Valley, and the mixing out is expected to continue through the morning as the stratus deck pares back to the immediate coastal region. Moderate onshore pattern winds will develop during the afternoon and evening hours with gusts of 15 to 25 kt. Stratus will return inland during the evening and overnight hours. Moderate confidence in the high resolution model output that keeps most of the SF Bay clear through the night.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the evening hours. Light offshore flow will turn to the west-northwest with gusts of 25 kt during the afternoon and evening hours. High resolution model output keeps the terminal area clear through the night as southwest winds develop aloft, there is moderate confidence in the forecast at this time. Tuesday afternoon, expect breezy and gusty winds to resume with a southwest component, leading to lower confidence on wind direction this far out.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR at SNS through the daytime, MRY will clear out within the next couple of hours. Gentle onshore winds will develop in the afternoon and evening. IFR-LIFR stratus returns rather early in the evening, with some high resolution model output seeing stratus returning to MRY as early as 01-02Z. Clearing is expected to be delayed to near or slightly after the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1033 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Fresh to strong northwest winds persist through Thursday with rough seas up to 12 feet over the northern outer waters and occasionally the inner waters north of Point Reyes. The San Pablo, Suisun Bays and the Delta will continue to see gusty onshore winds through the early evening hours. Long period southerly swells around 15 seconds will continue through much of the work week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions persist Monday across the higher terrain due to an increase in onshore flow on the heels of very hot and dry conditions. Slow improvement is expected with temperatures still 10 degrees above normal and minimum relative humidity of 15%- 30% Monday afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph can be expected through gaps/passes and across ridgelines; namely, the Delta, Altamont Pass, Pacheco Pass, and Interior Mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties. Moderate overnight recovery is expected Monday night; however, the highest terrain of the Central Coast will likely remain poor.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.