textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Very quiet with fair weather through this weekend.

- Marine stratus returning Saturday night, but clear during the days through early next week.

- Details very unclear, but high likelihood of a western US pattern change after Thanksgiving.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1220 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025 (This evening through Saturday)

There almost isn't a cloud in the sky across our entire 11 county warning area this afternoon. Light offshore flow and large scale subsidence are paving the way for fair weather through at least the next 24 hours. Saturday looks like it'll be a copy/paste from today with the only exception being marine stratus filling in along the coastline Saturday evening.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1220 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025 (Saturday night through next Thursday)

Not much change in the long term today. Continued cool temps within a degree or two of normal through the rest of the weekend and early part of next week. High confidence in a broad ridge over the western US into Thanksgiving, which would allow fair weather to persist and result in a very gradual warming trend by a few degrees into late week. Probably not even noticeable by most. Looking at the end of the period is where we find our next interesting weather feature. Long term ensemble guidance continues to advertise a very deep, closed upper low digging into the SW US from Canada. At this point, the spread of model solutions diverges so much that it's not worth trying to pin down anything specific at this point. Possibilities range from a very prolific rain maker to a nothing burger with light offshore winds again. What's the take-away here? Confidence is high that there will be a strong storm system digging its way into the Western US sometime around next weekend. Confidence is very low regarding where it'll set up and how much it'll dig to the SW. One other feature that has been persistent in model solutions is a very high amplitude ridge over the eastern Pacific up into AK and northwest Canada. This reinforces the signal that there will be a deep upper low downstream over the western US. Be sure to stay tuned to the forecast over the next few days as details on this system become more clear.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 919 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through much of the day and into Saturday morning. The exception will be across the North Bay terminals where there is a low probability of seeing reduced visibilities early Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Variable winds generally less than 5 knots this morning then shifting to west-northwest up to 10 knots this afternoon and early evening. Light northeast wind redeveloping early Saturday morning and become west-northwest by Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light and variable winds this morning. Westerly winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and early evening then light southeasterly tonight and early Saturday.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 919 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

High pressure will build in from the northwest through early next week. Hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend even as winds diminish seas will remain hazardous. Elevated seas will be prolonged by the arrival of long period northwesterly swell.

BEACHES

Issued at 919 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.