textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight before retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon

- Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages for Independence Day

- Temperatures dip for Sunday and Monday with a slight chance of showers on Sunday, warming trend for the mid to late week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 (Today and tonight)

The marine layer stratus is continuing to make its way inland, as the clouds come into the Sonoma County valleys, the Richmond- Berkeley area and down the Salinas Valley. Stratus will make its way into the coastal valleys through the night, retreating to the immediate coastal regions through the post-dawn and afternoon hours before returning this evening and overnight.

The weather pattern this Independence Day will be driven by a ridge set up over the Rocky Mountains and a shortwave trough that develops in the eastern Pacific, with California set up in a kind of transition zone between the two. Low temperatures remain in the lower to middle 50s in the lower elevations, and rise into the lower to middle 60s across the higher elevations. Today's highs are generally near to below the seasonal averages with highs in the 80s across the inland valleys, up to the lower to middle 90s in the warmest interior spots, the middle 60s to the upper 70s close to the Bays, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Some breezy onshore winds develop in the afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph through gaps, passes, and the northern Salinas Valley. People planning to celebrate America's 250th birthday with fireworks or outdoor cookouts should remember their fire safety, obey any local burn bans, and keep a fire extinguisher nearby when playing with fireworks or cooking with open flames.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

The long term outlook continues to show a balance between ridging across the Western United States and a series of troughs in the eastern Pacific through the next few days. A shortwave trough will knock down temperatures by a few degrees on Sunday with around five degrees of cooling within the inland valleys. In addition, as a pulse of moisture comes into the Bay Area and Central Coast, a few convective showers could develop Sunday morning and afternoon. High resolution convective models are showing the possibility for showers to come through the region, and the GFS K Index fields show a potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms as the pulse of moisture comes through. However, with dry slots aloft, particularly near the 700 mb level (around 10,000 feet above sea level) and no obvious lifting mechanism besides local topography, confidence is not high enough to introduce probabilities for precipitation or thunder at this time. The oncoming day shift will reevaluate local conditions and make any grid modifications as necessary.

Monday will not have a chance for showers, but otherwise conditions should be similar to Sunday. Towards the middle and later parts of the week, temperatures will gradually rise inland as the ridge strengthens and moves into the Desert Southwest, with a particular emphasis on Wednesday and Thursday when local temperature gradients range from the lower to middle 60s at the immediate coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s in the inland valleys, to the triple digits up to 105 within the warmest spots of southern Monterey County. CPC outlooks continue to lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages into the middle of July.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 956 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Widespread VFR lasts into the night. Winds increase across the region into the afternoon becoming moderate to breezy. Winds will reduce into the night, becoming light for most areas into Monday morning. Cloud cover returns to the Monterey Bay and HAF into the late night with MVFR CIGs. This cloud cover erodes into the mid morning on Monday, leading to widespread VFR again.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy west winds build into the mid afternoon with gusts around 22kts expected. Gusts cut off into the night and winds reduce slightly. Expect winds to become light into early Monday with breezy west winds returning that afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the night. Expect moderate winds to build in the afternoon across the area with gusty conditions affecting SNS. Winds reduce into the evening as come low clouds begin to flow through the area. MVFR CIGs fill over the terminals into the late night. These CIGs look to erode into late Monday morning at SNS and slightly beyond the TAF period for MRY.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 854 PM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

High pressure over the Eastern Pacific will shift slightly allowing winds to diminish through Monday. Locally hazardous conditions will persist over the northern outer waters through early Sunday due to fresh to strong breezes. Sunday and into Monday gentle to moderate breezes are expected. More widespread stronger winds and seas will build starting Monday night and continuing through the week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.