textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Pleasant, warm, and dry conditions persist through the next week

- Minor coastal flooding directly along the bayshore along the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday

- Hazardous beach conditions due to an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents for Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

UPDATE

Issued at 845 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

Still seeing some patchy reports of fog and lowered visibilities coming in from Byron, Concord, and Hayward. Alert cameras show some lower lying fog in the East Bay Valleys and along the Delta but not so much across the North Bay Valleys. If you're within the East Bay Valleys or along the Delta, be prepared for sudden changes in visibility and allow extra time to reach your destination. Fog coverage will decrease through the remainder of the morning as temperatures warm up. Today continues to look incredibly pleasant with much above normal temperatures across the region. San Jose has a decent shot at beating their daily record high temperature if the NBM has anything to say about it. The NBM 10th Percentile shows a high of 72F today for San Jose (record is 71F) with the 90th percentile showing a high of 76F. We'll have to see how the incoming high clouds influence our temperatures (potentially preventing incoming solar radiation from reaching the surface and not letting us warm as much as we could if it were clear) before we can say for

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1245 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 (Today and tonight)

Thin high level clouds blanket the satellite imagery, making it hard to evaluate the evolution of fog and low stratus across the region. Surface observations suggest that patchy fog and mist have developed, mainly in the North and East Bay valleys. The thin high clouds are lowering confidence in the amount of radiational cooling and thus any further expansion of the stratus layer, but expect the stratus impacts to persist through the morning.

The weather pattern continues to center around an upper level ridge that is slowly progressing into the Great Basin, giving us another day of seasonably warm temperatures. In particular, San Jose continues to flirt with a daily record high today; the current forecast high of 69 is just two degrees cooler than the record of 71 set in 1962 and tied in 2015. Elsewhere across the region, high temperatures range from the middle 60s in the interior valleys of the North and East Bay, the lower 70s in the Monterey Bay region, the middle to upper 70s in the South Bay and the interior Central Coast valleys, and the lower 60s across the North Bay Pacific coast, into the Bayside areas of the North Bay and the far interior portions of Contra Costa County. Winds will be light with a generally offshore component across the inland regions, while a light onshore breeze develops along the coast in the afternoon.

Minor coastal flooding is possible for low-lying areas directly along the bayshore of the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays near high tide today and Sunday, the result of a combination of elevated astronomical tides and storm surge from the system off the coast of British Columbia. Note that we are not anticipating major coastal flooding impacts like those seen at the beginning of the month, and will be limited to those locations that typically see impacts from the King Tides. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, the maximum inundation is expected to be around 1.3 feet above normally dry ground, or 7.20 ft MLLW, at around 9:30 AM today; this figure includes impacts from both astronomical tides and storm surge. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1245 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

A shortwave trough will brush past the region on Sunday as the ridge continues to move off to the east, leading to a more zonal upper level pattern across the region. With any rain chances now far to the north of our area of responsibility, the most prominent impact to the sensible weather will be increased cloudiness, brisker winds, and a slight cooling trend across the South Bay into the Central Coast. High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will dip into the middle 60s to near 70 across the Santa Clara Valley and the Monterey Bay region, while the Salinas Valley dips into the lower to middle 70s.

Upper level ridging redevelops over the West Coast by Tuesday and persists into the end of the 7-day outlook, and temperatures should rebound to the middle 60s to middle 70s in the interior valleys. The very tail end of the outlook does show the ridge beginning to break down with an associated slight cooling beginning next Friday, but the weather should remain dry. The CPC 6-10 day outlook, covering February 5 to 9, continues to show a high likelihood (80-90% probability) of temperatures above seasonal averages, and a lean (40- 50% probability) of rainfall totals below seasonal averages for the stated period. For context, downtown San Francisco's long term averages for this period are for a high of 60 degrees and a rainfall total around three quarters of an inch. Beyond that, ensemble model means are starting to depict some chances of rain around the 10th, but as the previous forecaster noted, the models have consistently shown rain at the very end of their runs before backing off as the day gets closer, so any increase in forecaster confidence will depend on whether the trend for rain around the 10th persists as it gets closer.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR continues for most TAF sites through the TAF period. The exceptions will be STS which will see pockets of overnight. Winds will mostly say light through the TAF period with directions being determined by localized affects through today and tonight. Winds look to turn more westerly for Sunday afternoon, but will stay mostly light.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Light winds turn northerly this afternoon and evening before becoming light and variable overnight and through the first half of Sunday. Northwest winds return Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds at MRY stay light and variable through the day. SNS sees southwest winds into the late afternoon before lighter northwest winds build. Winds across this potion of the region turn southeast overnight.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1129 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

Moderate winds and seas continue into Sunday. Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday morning and persist through Monday as seas build to become rough across the outer waters and northerly breezes increase to become fresh to strong. Conditions improve Tuesday with moderate seas and a gentle northerly breeze prevailing through Wednesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!

CLIMATE

Issued at 647 PM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for January 31st.

Location Jan 31st Record High

Santa Rosa 73 in 1953 San Rafael 78 in 2015 Kentfield 75 in 2015 Napa 77 in 2015 Richmond 75 in 2015 Livermore 79 in 2022 San Francisco 74 in 2015 SFO Airport 74 in 2015 Redwood City 75 in 2015 Half Moon Bay 72 in 2015, 1976, 1962 Oakland Museum 78 in 2015 San Jose 71 in 2015, 1962 Salinas Airport 79 in 1976 King City 85 in 1976

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 PM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.