textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026

- Temperatures return closer to normal today, then climb slightly above normal for Sunday into beginning of next week

- Cooler than normal temperatures look to return by end of the upcoming work week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1227 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026 (This evening through Sunday)

Temperatures are likely to warm into the upper 50s to middle 60s in northwest facing coastal areas while the interior warms into the low- to-upper 70s. This is as low clouds are beginning to dissipate regionwide. The warmest interior spots have a greater than 60% probability of reaching 80 deg F, such as the southern Salinas Valley and far interior East Bay (Byron and Brentwood to name a few).

The greatest potential for stratus to return is around the Monterey Bay region and the San Francisco Peninsula tonight into Sunday morning. This is as a short-wave ridge of high pressure begins to approach from the eastern Pacific. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon with upper 50s to around 70 deg F near the coast and coastal adjacent valleys. The most notable warming will occur across the interior with middle 70s to middle 80s expected under sunny skies.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1227 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday)

The short-wave ridge will shift eastward slightly and be more over the Bay Area and Central Coast on Monday. Thus, temperatures will continue the warming trend, warming some 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Still expecting a shallow marine layer to remain in place with northwesterly winds at the coast, but if low clouds do not develop in coastal areas Monday morning, expect coastal areas to be a few degrees warmer. By Tuesday the marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 ft allowing for stratus to return into inland valleys Monday night into Tuesday morning. Thus, current forecast temperatures may be a bit too warm for Tuesday afternoon. We will continue to monitor the latest trends.

Warming resumes on Wednesday and continues into Thursday with mostly zonal flow across the region. Slight day-to-day fluctuations are expected depending on the depth of the marine layer and associated marine influences across the Bay Area and Central Coast. By the upcoming weekend, the WPC 500mb Height-based Cluster Analysis has increasing probabilities that a trough will approach and move inland across the West Coast. This would bring cooler conditions to the region, however rain would likely remain well to the north of the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 AM PDT Sat May 30 2026

Stratus is gradually retreating this morning, with interior East and South Bay valleys cleared out. Along the coast, in the North Bay valleys, and across the Central Coast valleys, IFR to MVFR cigs generally prevail. Look for these low clouds to continue to mix out through the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon hours leaving us VFR conditions. Quiet and mainly clear skies are expected through the afternoon and into the evening hours. The question for tonight will be if the stratus returns. Guidance tends to favor mostly VFR conditions tonight, with the exception being along the coast and perhaps in the North Bay valleys. Opted to hint at the potential for lower cigs for the North Bay terminals rather than fully socking them in. Any low clouds that develop should erode by mid morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Satellite observations show a bank of stratus parked over the western portion of the range ring, while skies over the terminal remain VFR. We're expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period, though some guidance hints at low clouds trying to form just before or around sunrise. Looking at soundings and hi-res guidance, opted to hint at the low clouds rather than dropping cigs to MVFR or IFR. Any clouds that do form should mix out by mid to late morning. Outside of the clouds, look for onshore flow to increase this afternoon and evening. Sustained wind speeds will be around 12-15kt with gusts up to 25kt through the early evening. Winds begin to decrease around or shortly after sunset, falling to 10kt or less between 5-8Z. Medium confidence in the forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The stratus around Monterey Bay is the most fascinating as satellite observations haven't really sown any improvement. Models are not handling this well, making the forecast tricky. Opted to be slightly optimistic with the forecast, having cigs lift to MVFR conditions followed by a brief stint of VFR conditions. Unfortunately, there is the chance we could remain socked in all day though cigs could lift to MVFR heights for KMRY and KSNS. Regardless if this happens or not, stratus is expected to return tonight. Low to medium confidence in the forecast from now through the early evening. Medium to high confidence in the forecast for tonight.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 148 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026

Moderate to fresh northerly breezes are occuring over the nearshore waters and fresh to strong northerly breezes are being observed offshore. Occasional gale force gusts will occur in the far outer waters and the coastal jets to the south of Point Arena and along the Big Sur Coast. Seas will build in response and become rough leading to hazardous conditions over the coastal waters through Sunday and into Monday morning.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.