textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Pleasant, warm, and dry conditions persist through the next week

- Minor coastal flooding directly along the bayshore along the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday

- Hazardous beach conditions due to an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents for Pacific Coast beaches through Monday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1245 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 (Today and tonight)

Thin high level clouds blanket the satellite imagery, making it hard to evaluate the evolution of fog and low stratus across the region. Surface observations suggest that patchy fog and mist have developed, mainly in the North and East Bay valleys. The thin high clouds are lowering confidence in the amount of radiational cooling and thus any further expansion of the stratus layer, but expect the stratus impacts to persist through the morning.

The weather pattern continues to center around an upper level ridge that is slowly progressing into the Great Basin, giving us another day of seasonably warm temperatures. In particular, San Jose continues to flirt with a daily record high today; the current forecast high of 69 is just two degrees cooler than the record of 71 set in 1962 and tied in 2015. Elsewhere across the region, high temperatures range from the middle 60s in the interior valleys of the North and East Bay, the lower 70s in the Monterey Bay region, the middle to upper 70s in the South Bay and the interior Central Coast valleys, and the lower 60s across the North Bay Pacific coast, into the Bayside areas of the North Bay and the far interior portions of Contra Costa County. Winds will be light with a generally offshore component across the inland regions, while a light onshore breeze develops along the coast in the afternoon.

Minor coastal flooding is possible for low-lying areas directly along the bayshore of the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays near high tide today and Sunday, the result of a combination of elevated astronomical tides and storm surge from the system off the coast of British Columbia. Note that we are not anticipating major coastal flooding impacts like those seen at the beginning of the month, and will be limited to those locations that typically see impacts from the King Tides. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, the maximum inundation is expected to be around 1.3 feet above normally dry ground, or 7.20 ft MLLW, at around 9:30 AM today; this figure includes impacts from both astronomical tides and storm surge. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1245 AM PST Sat Jan 31 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

A shortwave trough will brush past the region on Sunday as the ridge continues to move off to the east, leading to a more zonal upper level pattern across the region. With any rain chances now far to the north of our area of responsibility, the most prominent impact to the sensible weather will be increased cloudiness, brisker winds, and a slight cooling trend across the South Bay into the Central Coast. High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will dip into the middle 60s to near 70 across the Santa Clara Valley and the Monterey Bay region, while the Salinas Valley dips into the lower to middle 70s.

Upper level ridging redevelops over the West Coast by Tuesday and persists into the end of the 7-day outlook, and temperatures should rebound to the middle 60s to middle 70s in the interior valleys. The very tail end of the outlook does show the ridge beginning to break down with an associated slight cooling beginning next Friday, but the weather should remain dry. The CPC 6-10 day outlook, covering February 5 to 9, continues to show a high likelihood (80-90% probability) of temperatures above seasonal averages, and a lean (40- 50% probability) of rainfall totals below seasonal averages for the stated period. For context, downtown San Francisco's long term averages for this period are for a high of 60 degrees and a rainfall total around three quarters of an inch. Beyond that, ensemble model means are starting to depict some chances of rain around the 10th, but as the previous forecaster noted, the models have consistently shown rain at the very end of their runs before backing off as the day gets closer, so any increase in forecaster confidence will depend on whether the trend for rain around the 10th persists as it gets closer.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 853 PM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Strong 500 mb high pressure ridging albeit is slowly moving eastward it will continue to result in VFR tonight through Saturday with exception of patchy valley fog /LIFR-IFR/ developing tonight and Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Mainly light N-NE wind.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots becoming E-SE 5 to 15 knots tonight and Saturday morning. Onshore winds near 10 knots Saturday afternoon and early evening, winds shifting back to light E-SE mid to late Saturday evening.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 843 PM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Seas will abate through tomorrow to become moderate. Gentle to moderate northerly/offshore breezes will prevail through Saturday. Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday into Monday as seas build to become rough for the inner waters and outer waters and northerly breezes increase to become fresh to strong. Conditions improve Tuesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 333 AM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

Hazardous beach conditions will continue through Monday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!

CLIMATE

Issued at 647 PM PST Fri Jan 30 2026

The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for January 31st.

Location Jan 31st Record High

Santa Rosa 73 in 1953 San Rafael 78 in 2015 Kentfield 75 in 2015 Napa 77 in 2015 Richmond 75 in 2015 Livermore 79 in 2022 San Francisco 74 in 2015 SFO Airport 74 in 2015 Redwood City 75 in 2015 Half Moon Bay 72 in 2015, 1976, 1962 Oakland Museum 78 in 2015 San Jose 71 in 2015, 1962 Salinas Airport 79 in 1976 King City 85 in 1976

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.

PZ...None.