textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week

- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)

- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday

- Unsettled weather returns by late next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1113 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026 (Tonight through Sunday)

The warming and drying trend continues! High pressure remains over the region through the weekend resulting in maximum temperatures to reach 5-10 deg F above normal. Gentle to moderate offshore flow persists across the higher terrain and gradually diminishes by Sunday. This coincides with when a cold front is forecast to propagate across the Pacific Northwest with no direct impacts to our area. At most, the incoming system will support a prominent onshore flow, allowing for increased low cloud cover across the Bay Area and portions of the Central Coast. The North Bay, San Francisco, and the Peninsula have the greatest chance of experiencing a subtle relief from the warm conditions, though it will be short-lived. Interior locations elsewhere continue to bask in the sun this weekend.

Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1113 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026 (Monday through next Friday)

In the wake of the frontal passage, high pressure builds again with max temperatures up to 15 deg F above average through mid-week. Upstream, an open wave mid-level trough deepens as it approaches the West Coast as early as Thursday. Therefore, anticipate an increased chance for precipitation across the Bay Area and Central Coast as this system approaches our coastline. Ensemble model members and clusters tend to agree on a general troughing pattern late next week. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the exact trajectory of this system as well as its moisture content. Tune in for more updates on next week's rain chances and impacts!

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 338 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

Clear skies and light winds with mostly VFR conditions this morning except at fog magnets like STS. Will carry LIFR vis at STS through mid morning. Could see a repeat again late tonight and early Sunday for STS. Do expect stronger onshore winds to develop this afternoon. High chc for CIGS to impact coastal areas and MRY Bay tonight. Less chc inside SF Bay, but did carry SCT for OAK and SFO.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the period. Low conf on CIGs Sunday AM.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through early tonight. MVFR CIGS likely after 06Z.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 338 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

Northwesterly moderate to fresh breezes will persist over the coastal waters Saturday. Locally strong breezes will be possible south of Point Sur. The sea state will remain elevated with hazardous seas due to mixed swells and longer periods. Hazardous conditions will likely continue into next week as seas build to become very rough Sunday night into Monday before returning to rough seas by Tuesday.

BEACHES

Issued at 340 AM PST Oct Nov 7 2026

Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Nice weather today and have beach plans? Definitely use caution as the surf zone will remain energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As such, large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave activity early next week, but longer range forecasts show additional swells impacting the coast late next week.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

Sarment/Flynn/MM

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.