textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Benign weather conditions continue through the middle of the week

- Coastal stratus returns tonight, but clear during the daytime

- Pattern change arrives after Thanksgiving, with details highly unclear

SHORT TERM

Issued at 111 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025 (Today and tonight)

The skies remain clear so far tonight with some assistance from light offshore flow stemming from the interaction between an upper level low centered off the coast of Baja California and a building ridging pattern coming in behind it. Radiative fog development is possible tonight in the inland valleys, including Sonoma County and the interior portions of Contra Costa County, any fog that develops should dissipate rather quickly after sunrise. High temperatures today should range in the middle to upper 60s in the inland valleys, to the upper 50s and the lower 60s along the Pacific coast. This evening, a marine layer should redevelop and bring stratus back to the immediate coastal areas, although the developing upper-level ridge should keep the marine layer rather compressed and inland stratus development unlikely.

LONG TERM

Issued at 111 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025 (Sunday through Friday)

Wash, rinse, and repeat for the next couple days, as the mild ridge persists over the West Coast and gives us similar conditions on Sunday and Monday, maybe a couple degrees cooler in the Bay Area as onshore flow strengthens. The ridge then builds into the Thanksgiving holiday, keeping fair conditions in the forecast and raising temperatures around a few degrees by Thanksgiving, which might end up being the warmest day of the 7-day forecast.

There hasn't been much change in the prognosis in the pattern change coming towards the end of the week as an upper level trough approaches the western United States. The forecast uncertainty remains very high, with "boom" scenarios of a prolific rainfall and "bust" scenarios of no appreciable precipitation and light offshore winds are still in play. As the previous forecaster noted, confidence that there will be *a* storm system in the western United States is high, exemplified by a high- amplitude ridge over the eastern Pacific into Alaska and northwestern Canada, but confidence on where it will set up and its impacts to the region remain low. One other thing to mention is that with the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend, even if the most impactful effects from this system do miss the Bay Area and Central Coast, potential holiday travel plans may be impacted, particularly for those heading out east for the extended holiday. Stay tuned to the forecast updates over the next several days, as we refine what exactly is going to happen with this system.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 326 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with a chance of patchy fog in vicinity of the North Bay terminals early this morning in the hours surrounding sunrise, with tule fog in vicinity of KAPC early this morning. Weak offshore flow will persist under building high pressure.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to persist through the forecast period with light and variable wind becoming west from 5-10kts this afternoon into the early evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to persist through the forecast period with occasionally breezy west winds Saturday afternoon possible.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 326 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

Moderate seas continue today into early Sunday morning with high pressure building over our area and long period northwesterly swell leading to hazardus marine conditions. Wave heights ease through the middle of the upcoming week, increasing by the end of the week into next weekend.

BEACHES

Issued at 919 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.