textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1158 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Seasonally cool and breezy conditions will continue through Thursday, with marine layer likely to stay in place for many coastal communities south of Pacifica.

- Pleasant conditions through the holiday weekend, with some areas seeing a warming trend Friday onward.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1158 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 (Tonight through Friday)

Thursday is geared to be another day under the influence of the deep upper trough over the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern has been in place for quite some time now, which has largely kept the marine layer over coastal areas and mostly clear skies inland. Thus, we can expect a repeat of this weather through the day on Thursday, with temperatures along the coast remaining in the 60s and inland locations increasing into the 70s and 80s. As we have seen over the Monterey Bay area on Wednesday, some breaks in the clouds can be expected once again through the afternoon hours.

Later in the day and into the overnight period, zonal flow starts to increase over the region and we start to see gradual height rises over the area. We are not expecting much of an influence on the weather overnight, with the marine layer becoming widespread again with lows in the low-mid 50s. Friday onward, the persistent longwave pattern that dominated the area will break down. Zonal flow will take over, with weak ridging developing over the area. Increasing 500 hPa heights will result, where we will start to see a gradual warming, especially for inland areas. Some locations may see a 2-4 degree increase compared to Thursday.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1158 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday)

Guidance favors a weaker marine layer Saturday with weak ridging and height increases, which should allow for mostly clear skies through the afternoon for some. Temperatures for communities along the coast will largely remain in the mid 60s to near 70, with the more notable warming noted for inland areas where it will be mostly clear. This will be especially true for inland areas south and east of the Monterey Bay area where temperatures in the mid- upper 80s will be possible. Some guidance hints at the potential for 90 degree temperatures, largely for areas in southern Monterey and San Benito Counties. HeatRisk along the coastal communities will remain Low (green), with inland areas at Minor (yellow). CPC continues to highlight the area under favorability for above normal temperatures through next week, bringing more summer-like weather to the area. The middle of next week and beyond is when we are starting to see isolated areas of Moderate (orange) HeatRisk, largely in parts of southwestern Monterey County. Although, confidence on this is lower at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Stratus continues to mix-out through the morning, leaving VFR conditions at majority of terminals. Lingering low clouds can be expected along the immediate Pacific coast through the day. Onshore west/southwest winds will increase this afternoon, becoming breezy at the usual wind-prone terminals. Stratus will redevelop overnight with the return of MVFR/IFR ceilings to some terminals.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the day with light easterly winds over the next few hours, then transition to west/southwest in the afternoon. 18Z TAF leans on persistence for overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions through the day with west/southwest winds at OAK. For SJC, drainage southeast winds through around 21Z, then becoming northwest. Redevelopment of MVFR ceilings at OAK likely after ~11Z Friday.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Both MRY and SNS have gone from OVC/BKN to SCT/FEW in the last 30 minutes. Expect VFR conditions through much of the day with the MVFR ceilings returning around 01-02Z Friday. Gust onshore winds through the day will subside after sunset.

MARINE

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Northwest winds will prevail over the waters through the weekend, with the strongest winds in the north. Seas will abate to become moderate to rough today and Friday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.