textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Warmer temperatures continue into next week with Moderate HeatRisk early next week

- Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through this evening

- Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways

- Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 (Today and tonight)

Stratus returns tonight with satellite imagery showing it already extending into the SF Bay shoreline and along most of the coastline/Monterey Bay region. The overall stratus footprint is more compressed tonight compared to last night. This is a result of building high pressure over southern California compressing the marine layer (and limiting stratus' inland progression). Yesterday the marine layer was closer to 1500 feet while tonight it is closer to 1000 ft. What does that mean for you? Coastal residents may see patchy drizzle and foggy conditions early this morning before conditions improve heading into the afternoon. For interior residents, stratus coverage will continue to expand overnight but it is not forecast to be as expansive in nature as it was the previous few nights.

Temperatures stay fairly seasonal across the interior today with highs in the 80s to low 90s in the hottest locations. For coastal areas, temperatures continue to run cooler than normal with highs in the upper 50s to 60s and in the 70s along the SF Bay shoreline. The interior Central Coast remains the hottest portion of our CWA with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s expected. Minor HeatRisk continues across the interior with Moderate HeatRisk forecast across the higher elevations of the interior Central Coast.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 (Saturday through Thursday)

A warming trend continues this weekend into next week as high pressure builds across the western United States. Upper level high pressure will gradually strengthen and shift northeastward from southern California towards the Intermountain West Saturday into Sunday. Building high pressure aloft will keep the marine layer compressed to around 1000 ft for much of the extended forecast and bring a return of seasonally warm temperatures across the interior. Coastal areas, however, will stay seasonal to seasonally cool thanks to the marine layer not entirely mixing out/remaining compressed along the coastline. Interior high temperatures will be in the 80s to 90s this week with the interior Central Coast and far interior East Bay reaching the low 100s. Coastal areas will stay in the 60s to 70s. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the warmest days of the week next week as upper level ridging strengthens over the central United States. Given the strength of the upper level ridge, temperatures may be adjusted upwards by a few degrees as we get closer in time. Moderate HeatRisk becomes more widespread Monday through Wednesday across both the higher elevations and more urban areas. Heat products may necessary for portions of the interior early next week. As temperatures heat up, remember to take breaks in the shade and stay hydrated if spending prolonged periods of time outdoors.

Thunderstorms remain possible Sunday into Monday but confidence in their development continues to be low. The monsoonal moisture remains on track to arrive overnight Sunday into Monday with instability continuing to be the limiting factor for storm development. Model guidance shows the best 700-500 mb lapse rates (7- 8C/km) Sunday afternoon while the bulk of the monsoonal moisture does not arrive until Monday. Model guidance continues to show minimal MUCAPE across the Central Coast and portions of the Bay Area during this period. The lack of instability would cap storm development and keeps the likelihood of thunderstorms low. That being said, this is considered a low probability, high impact scenario where if a thunderstorm is able to develop, the fire weather threat is high. High resolution models will get within range of this event starting Friday. It will be interesting to see how they are modeling instability with this event and how that influences the thunderstorm potential. Recent ensemble guidance suggests that light rain may be possible with any storms that are able to develop. This is mainly limited to the ECMWF with the GFS ensemble members still showing almost no rainfall.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 434 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The marine layer has continued to be gradually compressed by building high pressure, so not as widespread with lower ceilings and less predictable than the past few mornings with lighter winds. Most terminals should continue to hover around their current flight category before clearing out by late morning but some amendments are likely.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus has shifted just W/NW of the terminal with clear conditions along the southern Bayshore. A TEMPO group is in the TAF through 16z for MVFR/IFR ceilings. Clearing is expected by mid morning with VFR until late tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to persist through late morning at least for both terminals and possibly into early afternoon for KMRY. Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to return by sunset with occasionally breezy onshore winds this afternoon.

MARINE

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 434 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Northwest seas will be rough (9-11 ft) through the weekend and begin to subside to moderate (6-8 ft) by the beginning of next week. Strong northwesterly, near gale at times, will begin to diminish tonight with fresh breezes and strong gusts returning Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 450 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2026

Warmer and drier conditions continue through early next week. This increases fire weather concerns slightly as fuels are forecast to rapidly dry across the interior. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California brings the potential for high based convection to the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The limiting factor is the lack of instability over our region those days. Thus, we will continue to closely monitor these conditions through the weekend. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. This is a low confidence, low probability but potentially high impact scenario.

BEACHES

Issued at 450 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through this afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal and in January we reached 2.5 feet above normal.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.