textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Moderate coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore and Pacific Coast locations through the week

- Seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures through the extended forecast

- Potential for rain this weekend and again early to mid next week

LONG TERM

Issued at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026 (Thursday through next Monday)

Seasonal to below normal temperatures continue through the long term forecast with rain potentially returning over the weekend and again next week. Broadly speaking, high temperatures on Friday will be in the mid to upper 60s across the interior and 50s to low 60s along the coast. Temperatures are then expected to cool, becoming below normal across the entire region, with highs dropping into the 50s to low 60s Saturday and Sunday. This drop occurs as the first upper level disturbance arrives late Friday into Saturday and brings another round of much cooler air with it. It also brings just enough moisture for light rain to spread across the region Saturday and Sunday. We aren't expecting wetting rains (> 0.10" of rain) outside of the Santa Cruz mountains, Santa Clara Hills, and the Santa Lucia Range. Trick or treaters may experience more drizzly conditions to some light rain but the worst looks to hold off until after 10 PM on Saturday. Heading into next week, guidance continues to show another deep upper level trough pushing inland but the timing of its arrival remains in question. Recent ensemble guidance shows more pronounced ridging and warming occurring Monday and Tuesday with the trough now arriving midweek. This correlates to warmer temperatures early next week with interior highs getting back into the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain chances start to increase late Monday into Tuesday with initial guidance showing light rain between a tenth of an inch to half an inch falling early next week. Shower activity continues beyond the end of the current forecast period so the exact amounts we are expecting will continue to fluctuate. Definitely worth keeping an eye on the forecast as we head into next week with our multiple chances for rain.

Coastal flooding concerns continue through Friday with tidal heights to be on the downswing Thursday and Friday. The current forecast has high tide peaking 1.7 ft (7.5 ft MLLW) above normal at 1:43 PM on Thursday, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 02:39 PM Friday 10/30, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 03:44 PM on Saturday 10/31, including around 1.2 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino. The caveat to this is that the anomaly has been running higher than initially forecast so the Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be extended into the weekend for all regions rather than continuing for just the North Bay.

LONG TERM

Issued at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026 (Thursday through next Monday)

Seasonal to below normal temperatures continue through the long term forecast with rain potentially returning over the weekend and again next week. Broadly speaking, high temperatures on Friday will be in the mid to upper 60s across the interior and 50s to low 60s along the coast. Temperatures are then expected to cool, becoming below normal across the entire region, with highs dropping into the 50s to low 60s Saturday and Sunday. This drop occurs as the first upper level disturbance arrives late Friday into Saturday and brings another round of much cooler air with it. It also brings just enough moisture for light rain to spread across the region Saturday and Sunday. We aren't expecting wetting rains (> 0.10" of rain) outside of the Santa Cruz mountains, Santa Clara Hills, and the Santa Lucia Range. Trick or treaters may experience more drizzly conditions to some light rain but the worst looks to hold off until after 10 PM on Saturday. Heading into next week, guidance continues to show another deep upper level trough pushing inland but the timing of its arrival remains in question. Recent ensemble guidance shows more pronounced ridging and warming occurring Monday and Tuesday with the trough now arriving midweek. This correlates to warmer temperatures early next week with interior highs getting back into the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain chances start to increase late Monday into Tuesday with initial guidance showing light rain between a tenth of an inch to half an inch falling early next week. Shower activity continues beyond the end of the current forecast period so the exact amounts we are expecting will continue to fluctuate. Definitely worth keeping an eye on the forecast as we head into next week with our multiple chances for rain.

Coastal flooding concerns continue through Friday with tidal heights to be on the downswing Thursday and Friday. The current forecast has high tide peaking 1.7 ft (7.5 ft MLLW) above normal at 1:43 PM on Thursday, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 02:39 PM Friday 10/30, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 03:44 PM on Saturday 10/31, including around 1.2 ft of surge residual partially attributed to impacts from El Nino. The caveat to this is that the anomaly has been running higher than initially forecast so the Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be extended into the weekend for all regions rather than continuing for just the North Bay.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 AM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF cycle, with the marine layer essentially being non-existant. The main challenges will be any cumulus or stratocu that develop, similar to what we are seeing from roughly the East Bay and San Mateo County into the northern portion of the Central Coast. Sites that are seeing cigs from these clouds are reporting values between FEW or SCT025-035, perhaps some rogue BKN at times. Any of those BKN025 or BKN030 cigs should be short lived or temporary. The only other forecast challenge for tonight, is if KSTS gets any radiational fog/stratus again. Opted to hint at it with what has happened the past two mornings, but confidence was too low to lock in LIFR conditions.

Vicinity of SFO...Some cumulus is popping up around SF Bay and generally appears to be tied to the terrain. Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the period, with the onshore winds picking up t his afternoon. Sustained speeds should be around 12-15kt during the peak, with gusts up to 20-25kt possible. Winds begin to ease later in the evening, but will become breezy again mid to late Wednesday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite imagery is most interesting over the northern portion of the Central coast where we have a mix of stratus and stratocu being observed. TAF sites remain VFR here and are reporting mainly OVC cigs around 035-040. Models aren't really depicting this too well and with stratus kind of back filling from the northwest, current thinking is we should remain cloudy through the afternoon. If the clouds hold, we could still see BKN VFR cigs into the early evening. Offshore flow returns to these terminals tonight, which should clear out any lingering cloud should they still exist.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 303 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Fresh to strong NW breezes strong breezes continue this afternoon across the waters, with isolated near gale force gusts occuring over the northern water waters. Seas will continue to build in response, leading to rough seas across exposed waters. Conditions will gradually start to improve Thursday as winds decrease to and seas subside.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for CAZ006-505-506- 508-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.