textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast Beaches

- Above normal warmth for the next 6 to 10 days

UPDATE

Issued at 524 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

There's hardly a cloud in the sky across California this evening. With the benign weather ongoing there are really only 2 questions to focus on tonight. How cold will it get, and will fog form? Both of these will depend heavily on the strength of the offshore wind. The current SFO-WMC gradient is -10.9 mb. No models have the offshore gradient analyzed that strong. Many aren't even close. This suggests that the model guidance is overdoing the fog chances and temperature drop tonight. Both of these will be moderated by low level mixing and adiabatic downslope warming.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 141 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026 (This evening through Tuesday)

Largely quiescent conditions are forecast tonight and into the day on Tuesday. Current water vapor imagery shows ridging across the Pacific Southwest. A plume of mid/upper level moisture will stream in from the Central Pacific, but be largely deflected to our north. While this conveyor of moisture may send a few mid/upper level high clouds across our region, we'll see negligible impacts from this feature.

The dry airmass coupled with winds below 10 mph and mostly clear skies will support ideal radiational cooling, particularly in the valleys. Taking a look at the past couple of days, our valley locations have been averaging just below some of the median blended guidance. While the airmass continues to gradually modify, it does appear that we'll have to contend with another night of impactful cold. A Cold Weather Advisory has been posted for some of our valley locales that will likely experience optimal radiational cooling. Be sure to tend to sensitive crops/vegetation, tend to any pets/livestock that are sensitive to the cold, and be mindful/judicious regarding indoor heating appliances.

After what should be our last chilly morning, Tuesday (and really onward) appears picture perfect weather wise for outdoor activities. If you're headed to the beach, please be sure to exercise caution as long period (above 15 second) westerly swell will arrive along our shoreline. The energetic surf zone will feature an enhanced risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Be sure to check conditions if headed to the beach. Otherwise, high temperatures will run around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

LONG TERM

Issued at 141 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

The long term forecast period remains rather uneventful as it pertains to the sensible weather elements. A series of potent storm systems will continue to generate favorable swell that will impact our shorelines. This translates to a continued risk for hazardous beach conditions. Given the holiday weekend and very nice weather, we'll continue to advertise a threat for sneaker waves and rip currents. Be sure to check water conditions before venturing out!

The 6 to 10 day outlook calls for above normal warmth and above normal precipitation. Digging into the tercile data, the breakdown is quite stark, with over 70% probabilities for above normal warmth across much of the area. This is courtesy of mid-level ridging becoming anchored across our region. The lack of onshore flow (with brief bursts of offshore flow) will allow for a larger diurnal temperature range. While there's a non-zero risk for MinTs to near "impactful" levels, the airmass should remain rather stagnant, with no real sources of cold or warm air advection. Beyond the 10 day period, there are some hints at a pattern shift. Some camps in our model suite of over 200 pieces of guidance break down the upper ridge quickly in favor of more troughing/onshore flow. Other guidance keeps the ridge in place a little longer. While these details will be ironed out over the next several days, it does appear that at least a brief period of more active weather may be in store as we approach the end of the month.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 322 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions continue to dominate with gentle winds. The exception is at STS and HAF, where localized fog and mist are expected Sunday morning. The rest of the terminals have a slight chance of fog formation. The dew points are a few degrees higher than this time yesterday, with similar temperatures. That gives us a better starting point for the air to reach saturation. Offshore winds will be similar to this morning, however, which should help mix the lower atmosphere enough to keep the visibility unrestricted.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions will prevail through the evening with light NE winds. There is a chance for visibility restrictions Tuesday morning, specifically 30% chance for MVFR, 15% chance for IFR, and a 10% chance for LIFR. VFR conditions are still most likely, but it's not a guarantee through the morning hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...High confidence in VFR conditions at both MRY and SNS through the TAF period as the offshore winds will be strong enough to mix out any mist or fog.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 322 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

Gentle to moderate northerly breezes over the waters through Wednesday thanks to offshore high pressure. The longer period swell will continue to subside through Tuesday with an improved sea state. Another longer period westerly swell will arrive late Wednesday bringing an elevated sea state.

BEACHES

Issued at 141 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026

While the Beach Hazards Statement expires tonight, a seires of long period swell groups will hazardous beach conditions with increased risks for rip currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore break. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue through Thursday.

Be sure to check conditions before heading to the beach. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ506- 510-516-518.

PZ...None.