textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 206 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Rain continues today and continues this week as additional storm systems arrive

- Strong winds through mid-week; Wind Advisory for the Central Coast today

- A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Tuesday for minor high tide flooding

- Winter Weather Advisory today through Wednesday Central Coast Mts and Santa Clara Hills Tuesday through Wednesday with accumulating snow

- Much colder with mountain snow mid to late week

UPDATE

Issued at 932 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

The main rain band for this system is moving out of the immediate Monterey Bay region into the interior Central Coast and the eastern mountains of Santa Clara County. The latest high resolution model output shows a lull in rain chances for the next few hours before widespread rainfall returns to the SF Bay Area just in time for the morning commute, with the main rain band continuing to push southward into the afternoon and showers persisting through Wednesday. The winds will shift towards the west and the southwest on Tuesday and remain rather breezy across the region, with widespread gusts from 20 to 30 mph with the coasts and the ridgelines seeing gusts up to 45 mph. In particular, wind gusts along the Marin County coast and highlands reach Wind Advisory criteria, but those gusts are not widespread or long lasting enough to issue an Wind Advisory at this time.

DialH

SHORT TERM

Issued at 140 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 (This evening through Tuesday)

The much advertised active weather arrived today. Pretty fascinating synoptic set up at the moment over the Central Coast region. The digging upper trough from Sunday materialized along the Central Coast today. Rounding the base of the trough, and the fuel for the surface low, is a jet max. GOES West derived wind shows the higher winds speed aloft. It does appear the favored left exit region for larger scale ascent is placed a tad farther south the previously forecast. That was likely a contributing factor for the round of intense convection to the south in the LOX WFO area. Regardless, still enough ascent to assist with cyclongensis. The afternoon WPC surface analysis shows a double- barrel low off the Central Coast with a frontal boundary moving inland. Earlier in the day we had a round of intense rain with a subsequent weakening and now another burst of precip as the cold front moves east. The complex surface setup led to gusty winds, heavy rain (several inches of rain), localized urban/small stream flooding, mud/dirt/rock flows onto roads, and a change over to snow over the Santa Lucia Mts.

Tonight through Tuesday: The double-barrel low will weaken and move inland. As this happens winds will remain gusty through this evening then ease overnight. Will keep ongoing Wind Adv over the Central Coast. Rainfall will be light to moderate through this evening and heaviest south of the the Golden Gate. We'll likely see a lull in coverage and intensity overnight, but won't say completely dry. Lastly, the cold temps aloft associated with the low helped drop the snow levels. Snow is now falling over the higher peaks of the Santa Lucia and S Gabilan range. Expect this to persist into early Tuesday. As one system exits, and upstream cold front will quickly replace the Monday system during the day Tuesday. This second system and associated cold front will usher in a much colder airmass, another round of precip, additional gusty winds, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow. The latest timing brings rain back to the N Bay late tonight before spreading S and E Tuesday. As such, expect a messy commute for Tuesday. Rainfall amounts for Tuesday into Wednesday: 0.5-1.5" most areas, 1-2" coastal mts, and locally up to 3" Santa Lucias. This will likely result in additional minor flooding concerns on Tuesday given the filling creeks/streams from Monday. As for winds, they'll increase shortly before sunrise and then increase through the day. They'll be more widespread and gusty across a the entire Bay Area and Central Coast, unlike the Monday system. That being said, just borderline for Wind Adv at this time with gusts 20-40 mph with local gusts to 50 mph. The colder air aloft with the front will help to destabilize the atmosphere leading to another chance for thunderstorms. SPC has the entire region in a general mention for thunder on Tuesday. The more likely scenario will be convective showers with small hail. Last but not least, kept Winter Wx Adv over the peaks of the Central Coast. In fact, amounts in this region went up a tad. Decided to add in the Santa Clara Hills for a Winter Wx Adv on Tuesday into Wednesday. It's a low end event with 4-8 inches of snow likely, but impacts to Hwy 130 tipped the scale.

LONG TERM

Issued at 205 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

The active weather from Tuesday will linger Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough follows the front. Impacts for Wednesday will be additional showers, lowering snow levels again (1500ft? N Bay), and cold temperatures. Speaking of temperatures, lows Wednesday AM will be cold with temps in the 30s. Will likely need a mix of Cold Wx Adv and Extreme Cold products. This will be the case for Thursday and Friday mornings too.

The storm door remains open as a third system arrives late Wednesday into Thursday. This system will bring a renewed push of rain, high elevation snow, and gusty winds lingering into Friday. Rainfall amounts: 0.5-1.0" most areas, 1-2" coastal mts. As mentioned previously, we'll have cold air in place. The interesting part will be much lingering precip will there be on Friday to accompany the cold air. Still seeing some rather low snow levels for portions of the Bay Area. Given lack of conf on moisture don't think amounts will be that high, but would not be surprised to see some novelty flakes for very wet flakes below 1000 ft, especially the N Bay.

A brief break in the action with just a few showers late Friday into Saturday, but yet another system takes aim as the region Saturday into Sunday. Details will be fine tuned as this event nears.

Thoughts on hydro: while no single storm looks like a major hydro event all of these storms piling on top of each other may push some of the bigger rivers into action stage by the weekend. The smaller/flashier streams have a higher likelihood of have issues. Given the filling culverts and creeks, additional Flood Adv will likely be needed this week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1001 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

Shower activity is reducing with only a few light showers expected overnight. Expect mostly mid-level clouds as well as spotty MVFR CIGS across the area. Winds stay west to northwest and moderate to breezy through the night. Another round of widespread rains arrives early Tuesday morning offering moderate, to at times, increased rain rates leading to reduced visibilities. Winds look to increase and turn southerly along this rain band with gusts peaking above 30 kts for most sites. Rain rates reduce into Tuesday afternoons winds begin to shift slightly more to the west and begin to reduce. Storm chances will build over the marine environment, with slight chances for storms moving inland through much of Tuesday. Winds look to turn more northwesterly in the evening and into Tuesday night. Rain chances continue beyond the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Light and inconsistent showers are exiting the area with mostly mid-level clouds lingering in the area. Gusty northwest winds last into Tuesday morning. The next line of more organized showers arrives into the early morning leading to increased rain rates and more consistent rain chances. Winds will turn southwesterly as this band of showers moved through. Expect stronger winds and gusts to arrive into early Tuesday afternoon with gusts above 30 kts. These winds will reduce slightly into the evening as they turn more westerly and then northwesterly into the night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Showers are exiting with only slight chances for light showers lingering into the night. Breezy westerly winds remain at MRY through the night, while SNS goes Southeasterly into the late night. Widespread rains return in the mid morning with breezier and gusty winds. Stronger and gustier southwest winds build into Tuesday afternoon as rain rates increase. Showers become more scattered late Tuesday afternoon and into that evening while winds turn westerly and reduce.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 932 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

Light showers move through the waters overnight with more consistent rain arriving into Tuesday morning. Strong southerly winds continue along the inner coastal waters south of Monterey Bay, while winds continue to build in the northern waters. Strong to near gale force winds are expected through midweek, with gale force gusts expected at times. Rough to very rough seas will prevail through the week. Thunderstorm chances linger into the mid week.

BEACHES

Issued at 448 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

The combination of spring tides and storm surge are bringing minor high tide flooding to the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay through Tuesday. Up to 1.0 ft of inundation is expected in the San Francisco Bay, with up to 1.5 ft in the Monterey Bay. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected at 10:58 AM Tuesday. High tide timing varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and throughout the San Francisco Bay, respectively.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ514.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ517-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0- 10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm.