textproduct: San Francisco Bay Area

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 213 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday

- Rain returns to the region Friday into the early part of next week

- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday

- Hazardous beach conditions return later this week with dangerous conditions this weekend

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1147 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026 (Tonight through Thursday)

Areas of low clouds and fog redevelop tonight then it'll turn mainly sunny Wednesday. Clouds will then increase over our forecast area Wednesday night and continue mainly cloudy Thursday. It'll be dry Thursday except model forecasts do show a little light measurable drizzle or light rain developing closest to the coastline by later Thursday, with better chances for wet weather Thursday night.

Before discussing the long term weather, there is a trough of low pressure from the Pacific Northwest to our west that'll split and have little impact on our weather. The southern split energy will merge with the subtropical jet stream and remain well to our south. It's important to mention the passage of this low since it will free the mid-latitude westerlies and polar jet stream to send a series of well structured cold fronts (2 to 3) to move our way late in the week and through early next week.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1147 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Farther upstream there is good agreement in the global models that strong polar jet stream winds and a low center will undergo rapid, deep cyclogenesis south of the Aleutian Islands tonight through Wednesday. During this time the surface cold front is forecast to move upwards to 50 mph to 70 mph, very fast for a cold front. Dangerously high swell will develop with this low and become a factor here with dangerous and potentially damaging high surf in our forecast area by late Friday and Saturday. Beach Hazards will precede the arrival of the high surf.

On the heels of this low pressure system, another low is forecast to undergo rapid, deep development Thursday into Friday. Both of these system's cold fronts will approach and move across our forecast area (though less quickly vs initial rapid development). The first cold front reaches our area with rain and wind Friday, the next cold front arrives with rain and wind Sunday into Monday. The first specific low center will reach the Pacific Northwest, the second low will reach the Gulf of Alaska and British Columbia late in the week and weekend respectively. Given how much strength is showing up in the upstream pattern, it is good that the low centers are forecast to pass by far to our north vs much closer to the Bay Area and north Central Coast. Bottom line, a very busy week is ahead with a quickly moving pattern and beneficial rain. Expect the rain and wind to affect Friday's commute. Since the upstream pattern is evolving very quickly, something to keep in mind is e.g. the first cold front may arrive sooner than the models calculate. Will soon be looking into and messaging about winds as well as high, damaging surf ahead for late week and weekend. Please stay tuned to the latest updates.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 332 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Interesting set of TAFs here this morning. The boundary layer averaged winds are coming from the SE. This non-standard wind direction is having some interesting effects on the aviation weather with clear skies south of San Jose, and a big blob of LIFR fog filling the San Francisco Bay and North Bay valleys. The fog should clear by 17-18Z with VFR conditions and gentle diurnally driven wind through the rest of the day. Another round of IFR-LIFR conditions is expected Thursday morning, although the winds will be shifting to a more southerly direction, so the coverage will be different.

Vicinity of SFO...The San Francisco Bay is totally socked in with IFR-LIFR fog and ceilings. With the SE winds, OAK has a better chance of sneaking by on the edge of the cloud bank than SFO. The timing forecast is pretty uncertain, but don't expect any significant improvement before 17Z. After the clouds clear late this morning, there shouldn't be any more issues with VFR conditions and gentle onshore winds are expected through the afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Socked in, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Clear skies this morning. The winds are funneling down the Salinas Valley, keeping the dew points in the upper 40s while the temperatures stay in the mid 50s. At this point it is very likely that the VFR train will continue through the day. Tomorrow is a different story. As the winds shift to more S or SSW, the onshore component will bring much more moisture to the boundary layer and low ceilings are more likely.

MARINE

(Today through Monday) Issued at 332 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Conditions will steadily deteriorate through Friday as an cold front approaches the coast bringing strong SW winds. By Saturday high seas will move in from a hurricane force low moving through the NE Pacific. Significant wave heights will reach up to 25 feet on Saturday. Small crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these conditions.

BEACHES

Issued at 332 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026

Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 9 PM Wednesday through 6 PM Friday, at which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong rip currents and sneaker waves Thursday and Friday, while the breaking wave amplitude builds to 15-20 feet. As the peak of the swell arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 30 feet. These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives Monday.

Coastal Flood Advisory:

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.8 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In roughly 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530.

Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.