textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- West and southwest winds will be breezy each afternoon heading into the weekend, but mostly just a nuisance.

- Warm and dry weekend, temperatures running ~10 degrees above normal.

- Active weather for next week: Uncertainty remains on the exact timing of the onset of cooler and wetter weather. Expect seasonal temperatures with periods of precipitation.

Breezy west winds (valley gusts up to 25 mph) continue to remain a nuisance across the region this afternoon which will continue into the next couple days. Otherwise, as we end the work week, a relatively flat ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies. This will give us a very comfortable, warm, and dry weekend. Expect cool mornings near freezing and afternoon highs pushing well into the 50s and 60s for many valley locations, near 70 in the lower river valleys of Idaho, under partly cloudy skies.

If you are planning to burn piles this weekend, be aware that Friday and Saturday afternoons will be very dry. Minimum relative humidities will drop into the teens and 20s across southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

Confidence levels start to drop quite a bit as we head into early next week. There's about a 70% chance for a shortwave trough to pass through the region on Monday, but models are still in disagreement on exact timing and strength. A shortwave passage would bring along a cold front with it: increasing winds, precipitation chances, and cooling temperatures off behind the front.

Regardless of the exact onset of the initial shortwave, this feature should help open the door for more active weather to follow for most of next week. Precipitation chances will ramp up as the week progresses with, currently, about an 80% chance for a broad and deep longwave trough over the entire western United States by Thursday and Friday (April 2-3). This looks like the coolest and wettest timeframe region wide over the next week or so. There is even the possibility for some mixed wintry precipitation to valley floors late next week, but snow levels remain uncertain so we are advising that folks continue to monitor this evolving situation over the next several days as the spread in solutions should become tighter.

AVIATION

Breezy west-southwest winds will remain over the area through this afternoon, but not as strong as they were on Wednesday. Wind gusts between 15 to 25 knots are expected for all aviation terminals through 27/0300Z this evening. Lingering mid level moisture will allow for a mid level cloud deck and even a few showers to develop this afternoon, obscuring the higher terrain and potentially briefly lowering ceilings at area terminals. This is most likely in northwest Montana, including at KGPI. Any showers that do develop should dissipate quickly after sunset.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.