textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures much of this upcoming week.

- Next system arrives Tuesday into Wednesday with high elevation snow and gusty winds.

The Northern Rockies will be under a mild and dry westerly flow pattern today into Monday. The combination of low humidities and breezy conditions will bring elevated fire weather risks along the divide in southwest Montana and across Lemhi County, ID.

The next system will arrive into the Northern Rockies late Tuesday. The models have been consistent with this cold front and breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday, prefrontal. With warm temperatures, dry conditions, and very breezy conditions, especially in southwest MT, this will be the day with highest concerns for elevated fire weather.

Wednesday will produce modest precipitation amounts across north- central ID and northwest MT. However, snow levels will rise to 6000 - 6500 feet, limiting the concerns of winter weather travel impacts even at mountain passes. Winds with the front will be a concern as gusts 35 to 45 mph will be common in valleys and 50 to 65 mph in higher elevations (highest winds in northwest MT).

The trough that has been camped out in the Gulf Alaska will yet again elongate, allowing for a ridge to strengthen downstream over the Northern Rockies to end the week. While there are differences on the strength and longevity of the ridge within the models, current expectations are for above normal temperatures and benign weather next weekend.

AVIATION

Some westerly winds are expected to persist at KGPI, MSO and KBTM until the evening hours as high levels clouds streams across the Northern Rockies. A low amplitude ridge will keep fair flying conditions over the region through Monday. The biggest concern will be the redevelopment of patchy fog in the valleys of north central Idaho.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None.

ID...None.