textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Unseasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions today will create elevated fire weather concerns, primarily across southwest Montana.

- Light rain will persist today across northwest Montana before a cold front on Saturday brings a return to seasonal temperatures, gusty winds, and scattered showers.

- A brief cool down this weekend will be followed by well- above- average temperatures Monday through Wednesday, before a potentially wet, moisture-rich cold front arrives late next week.

The region remains split today. A lingering plume of moisture will keep light rain falling across northwest Montana, with snow levels holding high above 7,000 feet. Meanwhile, areas south of Interstate 90 will experience near-record warmth, with afternoon highs soaring into the upper 60s and 70s. A tightening pressure gradient will produce gusty southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. Combined with the unusual warmth and low humidity, this will elevate fire weather concerns across southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

A Pacific cold front will sweep across the Northern Rockies on Saturday. This boundary will trigger a period of light to moderate convective showers. Expect a drop in temperatures back to seasonal normals and a burst of gusty winds as the front passes through. Snow levels will drop behind the weekend front, bringing mountain snow back into the forecast, which is unlikely to amount to much for accumulations.

Behind Saturday's front, cooler and more unsettled weather will linger through Sunday. However, forecast models are in fair agreement that the weather pattern will shift quickly, bringing a return to well above average temperatures for Monday, Tuesday, and likely Wednesday.

By Wednesday or early Thursday, the pattern shifts again as another cold front approaches the Northern Rockies. This system will be associated with another Atmospheric River, bringing the potential for widespread precipitation with highest amounts again focused to north-central Idaho and northwest Montana.

AVIATION

An active southwesterly flow regime will maintain VFR conditions for most terminals today, though localized MVFR ceilings and visibility remain possible across northwest Montana due to persistent light rain and low-level moisture. The primary aviation concern focuses on a tightening surface pressure gradient and deep mixing, which will generate widespread west-to-southwest surface gusts of 25 to 35 kt this afternoon, particularly for KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN. Strengthening flow aloft interacting with complex terrain will also increase the risk for mechanical turbulence and localized mountain wave activity, especially in northwest Montana, along the Divide and downwind of the Bitterroot and Sapphire ranges. While snow levels remain above 7,000 feet, obscuration of higher terrain will continue across northwest Montana through the evening. A cold front will pass on Saturday, bringing a wind shift, showers, and periods of reduced visibility and lowered ceilings.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.