textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cold front brings cooler temperatures alongside gusty westerly winds, dry air, and increased fire weather today.
- Ridge of high pressure rebuilds early this upcoming week with a warming trend.
A cold front will continue to sweep across the Northern Rockies today. A few lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this morning before a significantly drier airmass pushes precipitation threats eastward from the I-15 corridor into central Montana. The frontal passage will provide a brief respite from the heat, dropping daytime highs 10 to 15 degrees from what was observed on Saturday bringing temperatures closer to seasonal averages. Deep boundary layer mixing will tap into stronger momentum aloft and drive gusty surface westerly winds across the region through early this evening. The combination of these stronger synoptic winds and a very dry post-frontal airmass will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. Winds will gradually decouple and diminish after sunset tonight.
A ridge of high pressure rapidly rebuilds over the region early this upcoming week, marking a return to stable and warm if not hot conditions. A mostly dry forecast carries us through at least Wednesday aside from near-daily chances for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms in Lemhi County and Southwest Montana.
Looking toward the mid-to-late portion of the workweek, ensemble guidance continues to identify a return to more active weather with another moderating cooldown, afternoon breezes, and increasing shower and storm chances.
AVIATION
Lingering morning showers or isolated thunderstorms will quickly diminish as a cold front sweeps across the regional airspace today. A significantly drier airmass will mix into the region marking a return of widespread VFR weather conditions. Deep mixing will produce strong synoptic-scale westerly winds between 15 and 30 knots across all terminals from late morning through the evening hours. Winds decouple and relax close to and after sunset.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Red Flag Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Kootenai...West Lolo.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for Deerlodge/West Beaverhead.
ID...None.
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