textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Peak warmth on Monday with above average temperatures through the whole forecast period.

- Strong winds on Tuesday ahead of a cold front.

- Showery weather returns next weekend, especially in the mountains.

Temperature forecasts are on track to be 15-20 degrees above average for tomorrow afternoon. Even after the cold front on Tuesday, temperatures remain 2 to 5 degrees above average and late in the week will reach 10 degrees above average again. So even when the weather is active, the region isn't seeing any air mass cool enough to bring it down below average temperatures which are generally in the low to mid 50s by the end of the week.

Confidence is increasing for strong winds on Tuesday. Wind advisories will likely be issued tomorrow if models hold their course. Widespread wind gusts across the northern Rockies over 30 mph are expected for most of the afternoon on Tuesday. Widespread gusts over 40 mph are expected for a few hours, and isolated damaging wind gusts over 50 mph are possible with the cold front as it moves through.

The chances for strong winds vary based on the ensemble system you look at. According to the NBM, the chances for wind gusts over 40 mph are 80-100 percent in the mountains and range from 20 to 50 percent in the valleys, depending on the valley. In the mountains chances for 50 mph gusts range from 40-75 percent depending on the mountain range. In the valleys it's generally less than 20 percent, with the notable exceptions of the Bitterroot Valley west of Highway 93 and the southwest Mission Valley near Hot Springs where it's 30-50 percent chances for a gust over 50 mph. High resolution, short term ensembles like the REFS show lower chances than the NBM. In any case, be prepared for gusty winds on Tuesday.

Another ridge builds in behind the front for Friday, but as southwest flow becomes established this weekend, showers and precipitation are in the forecast once again.

AVIATION

A ridge remains dominant over the region through tomorrow causing VFR flight conditions. Some morning fog along the rivers near terminals KMSO and KGPI is likely, but this is not expected to expand into the terminal area. Late Monday night around 07/06Z winds start increasing for what is expected to be a windy day on Tuesday.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...ID...None.