textproduct: Missoula

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Afternoon thunderstorm return to Lemhi County, ID and southwest Montana Friday, and will be a frequent occurrence through early next week.

- Gusty winds, especially in NW MT on Saturday.

This afternoon the region will have a break from thunderstorms, but they return tomorrow. With only modest instability and a lack of strong wind shear, we do not expect storms to be severe. As usual with any thunderstorm, wind gusts 30-40 mph are possible with heavy rain and small hail. Due to a drier air mass moving in for Independence Day (Saturday), there will be less storms then but they'll pick up again Sunday and through early next week.

A short wave moving through southwestern Canada on Saturday will cause the pressure gradient to tighten up, resulting in breezy conditions, mainly in northwest Montana, on Independence Day (Saturday). High in the mountains will see frequent gusts in the upper 20s with valley locations experiencing gusts in the low to mid-20s. Additionally, it will get much drier on Saturday with relative humidity dropping into the low 20s and teens.

In the long term, the broad trough over southwestern Canada will remain in place for about a week, causing only a gradual warming and drying trend with frequent thunderstorms in southwest Montana and Lemhi County, ID. Temperatures will remain about 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Long term ensembles have been trying to show a sharp ridge building in over the Pacific Northwest or the northern Rockies in the long term, but it keeps getting delayed. So while it does continue to warm, conditions will remain mild for the season.

AVIATION

Expect VFR conditions today as the region gets a break from the thunderstorms. There will be some convection today, but we expect it to peak with cumulus clouds and maybe some sprinkles, but no significant showers or thunderstorms. Tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms return mainly for Lemhi County, ID and southwest Montana affecting terminals KSMN and KBTM.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.

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