textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Monsoon moisture drives thunderstorms through Thursday.

- Hot, dry, breezy conditions this weekend are a concern for fire weather.

- Smoke from Pacific Northwest wildfire will continue to impact central Idaho and western Montana.

The Southwest Monsoon is in full force and keeps reinforcing the subtropical ridge over the western U.S and injecting moisture into it. For the next few days, that moisture will work its way into southern Idaho and all of Lemhi County in Idaho as well as southwest Montana. The result is thunderstorms in these regions. The amount of water that they have to work with and the relatively weak steering flow under the ridge make heavy rain and flash floods the primary risks from these storms.

Late Thursday and Friday a broad trough over the northeast Pacific Ocean pushes the ridge further east, bringing in much drier air. The drier air and breezy conditions are a major concern for fire weather. Though we haven't seen much local impact from wildland fire despite a lot of recent lightning, the hot, dry, breezy conditions this weekend are exactly the kind of weather that will push the landscape to be more receptive to fire.

While our region hasn't seen much impact from wildland fire yet, the Pacific Northwest has in eastern Oregon and eastern Washington. Fires in these areas have been producing quite a bit of smoke and pushing it towards our region. As the broad Pacific trough pushes the ridge to the east this weekend, that will open the door for more of that smoke to make into central Idaho and western Montana. We'll be watching that situation closely for air quality impacts.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.