textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mild temperatures continue through Thursday.
- Unsettled weather, colder temperatures arrive Thursday night into next weekend.
Mild weather remains the main story across the Northern Rockies through the middle of the week. Our weather pattern is being driven by split flow, with a slow moving closed low near the California coast, and the main storm track focused north in Alaska and Canada. Day-time temperatures will run around 10 degrees above average across the region through Thursday.
Ensemble model guidance has come into stronger agreement with a significant change arriving Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. The closed low near California will move northward and phase with a trough of low pressure diving southward from Canada. Precipitation will become widespread, especially Thursday night into Friday morning as a potent cold front tracks through the area. As of right now, precipitation appears to focus across north-central Idaho and mountain areas along the Idaho/Montana border south of I-90, where there's a 60-80 percent chance of 0.50 inches or more of precipitation. Finally, this front will send snow levels down near 5,000 feet with a couple inches of snow accumulating across the higher terrain. Temperatures will feel much colder by Friday as high temperatures fall 20-25 degrees for most areas compared to Thursday!
Extended model guidance suggests unsettled weather may continue through the weekend into early next weekend as another trough of low pressure drops southward from Canada. High uncertainty exists with the exact track of this system; stay tuned!
AVIATION
Satellite imagery shows a shield of high clouds moving east across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana. This will continue through this afternoon, with less cloud cover south and east of I-90. South-southwest surface winds will develop today, with gusts of 15-25 kts across the higher terrain. Strong valley inversions this morning will break by early afternoon with generally light and variable winds expected until then.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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