textproduct: Missoula

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- A system dropping into central Montana today will push a boundary southward through western Montana driving thunderstorm activity through the afternoon and into the evening.

- Dry and increasingly warm conditions return later in the week, temperatures nearing 80 degrees(or warmer) by the weekend for many locations.

- Watching Monday for potential fire weather concerns in southwest Montana ahead of the next system.

Western Montana will see showers again today, as a boundary moves through the region those showers will become focused along the boundary. Scattered thunderstorms are possible especially as the boundary passes, the main threat being graupel, small hail, and gusty outflows 25-35 mph. Timing on the boundary: around noon Kalispell, MT, between 4-6pm I-90, and 7-9pm Bitterroot Valley and Butte, MT. The highest precipitation will be in the mountains and mainly US-93 and points east to the Continental Divide.

A drying and warming trend begins Wednesday lasting into the weekend. If you like warm and dry, the weekend will be quite pleasant with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Hells Canyon will be the warmest, where temperatures around 90F are possible.

The forecast for Memorial Day onward still has questions. Of note, the National Blend of Models, which is the starting point of our forecast, now clearly shows a cooldown and increase in precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday. Seasonal models have pointed to the last week of May as ending wetter than normal, time will tell.

AVIATION

A slightly unstable west-northwest flow will intersect with a upper level cold front dropping out of Canada today. while mainly disorganized shower activity is expected, along that boundary more organized showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Any shower will be capable of graupel, small hail, and erratic outflow gusts 24 to 33 kts. Shower activity will wane near sunset and partial clearing is expected. Areas that receive precipitation may have isolated pockets of fog, especially near rivers.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.

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