textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Widespread showers and seasonably cool temperatures persist through the rest of the week and into early next week.
- Near-critical fire weather continues for southwest Montana on Friday due to gusty winds and low humidity.
No significant changes in the forecast. The significant low pressure system is continuing to move into the Pacific Northwest which will cause southwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies. This flow pattern will keep a decent fetch of moisture streaming into the region tonight into Friday. Most locations will experience decent precipitation amounts over the next 24 to 48 hours, with north central Idaho receiving the bulk of the rainfall. The low is expected to make its way into the Northern Rockies Sunday into Tuesday time frame causing an increase in the precipitation coverage. The uncertainty in the forecast comes in the amount of subtropical moisture that gets pulled into the low. Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year.
The exception to the impacts from this low pressure system will be the eastern half of Fire Weather Zone 111 (Madison County, MT) which will still experience warm, dry and breezy conditions on Friday afternoon creating near critical fire weather conditions.
The longer term models are showing a transitory ridge of high pressure sliding over the region by the latter part of next week which will bring a warming and drying trend to the Northern Rockies.
AVIATION
Southwesterly flow will persist over the Northern Rockies for the next several days. Over the next 24 hours, the bulk of the shower activity will be pushing through north central Idaho into west central Montana. KMSO and KHRF have the best potential of receiving impacts from the shower activity. Stronger storms could produce moderate to heavy rainfall which could cause visibility to drop down to VFR conditions for a period of time.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for East Beaverhead.
ID...None.
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