textproduct: Missoula

UPDATE

Latest model guidance shows winds will start a bit sooner than previously expected across northwest Montana. Therefore, we edited the timing on wind highlights to start overnight tonight into Sunday morning, primarily in Flathead and Lincoln counties. All other areas remain the same for timing.

PREV DISCUSSION

/ISSUED 1234 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026/

DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Strong to damaging Winds Sunday into Monday, with a 60 to 80 percent chance of widespread gusts over 40 mph in the valleys.

- Active Pattern for the rest of next week/weekend; potential for more wind and winter weather impacts.

A relatively mild day today will give way to more interesting weather on Sunday. Radar returns this afternoon indicate continued scattered showers for west-central Montana and eastern Clearwater County in Idaho. Focus for precipitation will shift towards the Glacier Park region tonight. Snow levels will be high, 6000-7000 feet going into Sunday afternoon.

Broad high pressure off the California coast and low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will direct the polar jet towards the Northern Rockies from the northwest. The 100 knot jet will be over the Idaho Panhandle and western Montana around midday. Model soundings indicate enough instability to mix the upper level winds down, resulting in strong southwesterly winds for much of the Northern Rockies. Most notable areas for high winds will be the Glacier Park region; along and west of Highway 93 from the north shore of Flathead Lake through Eureka; and the Bitterroot Valley west of about Highway 93. Banded snow showers over northwest Montana will not be out of the question Sunday night.

A depression in the overall northwesterly flow aloft will move through the Northern Rockies on Monday morning. This system will bring an associated cold front, dropping snow levels down to valley floors by about midday. Valley snow amounts will be minimal, expect little impacts to travel outside of modest snow over mountain passes.

The low-over-high pressure scenario in the eastern Pacific persists through the week, keeping the polar jet oscillating between southern Montana/central Idaho and central British Columbia. Mountain snow will stay in the forecast for Tuesday as a more robust depression moves over the Northern Rockies. This system will favor the Clearwater and northern Bitterroot ranges early, then shift towards the Glacier Park region later.

On Wednesday afternoon, moisture transport increases under westerly flow. Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be a potentially impactful period for winter travel. "Potentially" because there is considerable uncertainty in snow levels as mid- and low-level warm air advection occurs overnight. Ensemble spread for snow amounts remains high late in the week, indicating a good amount of uncertainty. Regardless, the middle to end of the coming week will be a period to keep an eye on for winter weather impacts.

AVIATION...Wind will be the main impact for area terminals over the next 48 hours, though there may be some showers that may be a minor MVFR annoyance for a short while. The chance of a shower causing MVFR conditions is low enough (below 30%), that it didn't make it into the TAFs. The strong winds are supported the jet stream which has 30-50 knot winds at 10,000ft ASL across our forecast area. These winds are expected to intensify tomorrow morning. Wind shear and gusty winds will be a challenge for aviation for the next 2 days.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Sunday for West Glacier Region.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region... Lower Clark Fork Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys... Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...None.