textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mild and fair weather continues today into early Friday.
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms return this weekend, bringing gusty winds and rain.
- Cooler temperatures and mountain snow arrive Sunday into Monday.
Enjoy the calm weather while it lasts. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies and light winds as we sit under dry, northwesterly flow aloft. By Friday afternoon, high clouds will begin to stream in from the south as temperatures warm pleasantly into the 60s and 70s. By Friday evening, showers will begin to reach Idaho and Lemhi counties, pushing northward overnight. Because the lower atmosphere will initially be quite dry, evaporating rain from these initial showers could produce sudden, gusty winds at the surface.
A low-pressure system approaching from the Pacific will move inland on Saturday, dragging abundant moisture into the Northern Rockies. As afternoon temperatures peak on Saturday, expect widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of lightning, with the greatest potential over western Idaho and Clearwater counties. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain could accompany the stronger cells.
By Sunday and Monday, the core of the system moves overhead, bringing a noticeable cool-down to more seasonal temperatures. Expect widespread valley rain and high elevation snow as cooler air filters in.
Tuesday through Thursday: The active spring weather pattern is likely to continue through the middle of next week. We may see a brief break with fair weather, but another Pacific weather system is currently favored to bring additional chances for valley rain and mountain snow by Wednesday.
AVIATION
Expect VFR conditions today. Winds increase to about 10-15 knots this afternoon at KBTM. Otherwise, clear skies and light winds prevail through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop Friday afternoon from south to north, bringing a threat of gusty erratic winds near any convective showers.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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