textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A ridge starts to build in west of the region today, and moisture moving through that ridge will cause rising snow levels and light showers.
- Mid week onward will be 10 degrees or more above average, with 15 degrees above average probable by next weekend.
A ridge starts building over the Pacific Northwest today, leaving the northern Rockies under a northwest flow pattern. This will allow some convection over the region, but the building ridge upstream will work to suppress the convection resulting in lighter showers, mainly over the mountains with minimal impacts over the valleys today.
Tonight southwest flow starts to develop around 10,000 ft, which will bring warmer air into the region as part of a warm front. The warm front is a lift mechanism that will help to generate some precipitation, while the warmer air itself will cause snow levels to rise. The lift from the warm front will combine with lift from the southwesterly flow moving up, over the mountains and will be enough to generate some light rain and snow at high elevations. Monday afternoon snow levels will have already risen back to 5,000 to 8,000 ft across the region. Storm total precipitation expected by Tuesday morning will range from a few hundredths in the valleys to about half an inch in the upper elevations of the mountains.
Southwest flow keeps warm air moving into the region all week, and around Tuesday most locations will be about 10 degrees above average for this time of year, and closer to 15 degrees above average by the end of the week.
AVIATION
A ridge starts building over the Pacific Northwest today, leaving the northern Rockies under a northwest flow pattern. This will allow some convection over the region, but the building ridge upstream will work to suppress the convection resulting in lighter showers, mainly over the mountains with minimal impacts over the valleys today. Tonight a warm front will cause rapidly rising snow levels and light snow and rain. Precipitation will start out as snow with the likelihood of impacts from snow at area terminals ranging from 20 percent to 50 percent peaking around 16/12Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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