textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Elevated fire weather conditions (hot, dry, breezy) lasting into the weekend region-wide.

- Wildfire smoke degrading air quality and reducing visibility for the next several days and likely well into next week.

Western Montana and north central Idaho will remain under southwest flow aloft with high pressure to our east and low pressure to the west. This will maintain hot, dry and breezy condition through the weekend.

Windy conditions are expected to peak Saturday afternoon, with widespread southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph. The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions will cause elevated fire weather concerns across the region. In addition, choppy conditions on area lakes should be anticipated for those recreating on area lakes.

The southwesterly flow will also continue to transport regional smoke from fires in Oregon and Washington into the region. Air quality will be diminished at times.

Forecast models are hinting at thunderstorm development as far north as Butte in southwest Montana and across Lemhi county Saturday afternoon and evening. The dry low levels of the atmosphere will set the stage for high based storms capable of very strong outflow wind gusts, possibly as high as 50 to 60 mph for localized areas.

The upper level pattern changes very little for early next week, with hot, dry and smoky conditions continuing. Monsoonal moisture will remain predominantly suppressed to the south, limiting thunderstorm potential to occasional, slight chances across Lemhi County and southwest Montana. Forecast models do hint at high pressure strengthening over the area by Wednesday/Thursday, which would allow for further warming of temperatures and possibly for thicker smoke to settle into valley bottoms

AVIATION

Breezy southwest to westerly winds will persist this afternoon through early evening across central Idaho and western Montana. Wildfire smoke aloft will continue to cause limited reductions in visibility at times, though visibility should remain at or above 6SM for the region over the next 24 hours. Expect wildfire smoke to remain through the weekend into next week. For KBTM and KSMN, thunderstorm development through 25/0300Z could produce gusty erratic outflow winds if they cross near the terminals.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for East Beaverhead.

ID...None.