textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Gusty, west winds develop across the region tomorrow and last through Friday.
- Disturbance along the Divide Friday produces mountain snow, with light precipitation in Glacier Region valleys.
- Arctic air mass bumps Continental Divide Saturday, with a brief change to easterly winds and colder temperatures in the Glacier Region.
Most of the moisture has moved south out of region, however, there continues a strong westerly flow forcing some shower activity in the mountains. This afternoon a shower or two may work out of the mountains to affect valleys. Gusty winds and brief but rapid reduction in visibility are reasonable expectations for any shower.
Strong west winds are the main weather story. Gusts 45 to 55 mph in the mountains will be common with valley gusts 30 to 40 mph. The winds will be stronger closer to the Continental Divide and to the east into central Montana, additionally in west to east orientated valleys. Thursday could see winds of equal strength, while Friday winds continue but weaken slightly.
Friday a disturbance will drop south along the divide and produce mountain snows. Above 6000 feet in the Glacier Region there is a 10% chance snow amounts will range from 12 to 18 inches. Lower elevations east of Kalispell; IE Hungry Horse, West Glacier, and along US-2, could receive a trace to 2 inches with locally higher amounts, 1 to 8 inches, at Marias Pass. These wide ranges in amounts demonstrate how low the confidence is with this system.
Saturday an Arctic air mass will brush up against the Continental Divide. Models would suggest a brief change over to easterly winds for the Glacier Region with colder temperatures both Saturday and Sunday. As of this forecast, the cold air does not appear to penetrate further into Western Montana. We will continue to monitor this forecast potential.
AVIATION
VFR conditions with breezy west winds at most terminals. Low flying aircraft in the mountains should expect intermittent obscurations over peaks and ridges, with turbulent upslope westerlies and descending winds on eastern slopes. Similar wind conditions will exist tomorrow, with less cloud production over peaks and ridges.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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