textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warmest temperatures today and Wednesday.
- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon, increasing in coverage and northward extent for Wednesday, bringing gusty outflow and lightning.
- Pacific Northwest trough brings gusty winds later this week and cooler temperatures for the weekend.
High pressure will maintain a warming trend across the Northern Rockies today and tomorrow with high temperatures running roughly 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Light southeasterly winds will reroute smoke from fires to the east causing localized reductions in air quality and minor impacts to long-range visibility.
Monsoonal moisture will begin to surge northward today reintroducing shower and thunderstorm chances, primarily across southwest Montana and central Idaho, extending as far northward as the I-90 corridor. Erratic outflow wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be commonplace, with isolated stronger gusts in the 50 mph range possible across southwest Montana and Lemhi County.
Deeper moisture will encompass the region by Wednesday, expanding the coverage of convective shower and storm chances.
Ensemble forecast guidance maintains high confidence in an approaching Pacific northwest upper-level trough late this week into the weekend. This transition will increase synoptic-scale westerly and southwesterly winds for Thursday and Friday introducing another prolonged period of elevated fire weather conditions. The incoming trough will also provoke a longer-term active weather pattern with much cooler temperatures for this coming weekend.
AVIATION
High pressure will maintain widespread VFR weather conditions across the region today, though warming temperatures will significantly increase density altitudes, particularly at high- elevation terminals like KBTM. Degraded slant-range visibility aloft is anticipated today due to wildfire smoke throughout the afternoon. Monsoonal moisture moving northward will introduce isolated to scattered thunderstorms starting this afternoon around 25/2200z, particularly near KSMN and KBTM. These high- based storms will be capable of erratic convective outflow wind gusts of generally 30 to 40 knots near storm cores.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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