textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- West and southwest winds will be breezy each afternoon heading into the weekend, but will mostly just be a nuisance.

- Expect a warm and dry weekend, with temperatures running about 10 degrees above normal.

- Active weather for next week: Uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing of cooler and wetter weather. Expect a return to seasonal temperatures with periods of precipitation.

Breezy west winds, with valley gusts up to 25 mph, will remain a nuisance across the region over the next couple of days. Otherwise, as we end the work week today, a relatively flat ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies. This will give us a very comfortable, warm, and dry weekend. Expect cool mornings near freezing and afternoon highs pushing well into the 50s and 60s for many valley locations, and near 70 in the lower river valleys of Idaho, under partly cloudy skies.

Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the teens and 20s across southwest Montana and Lemhi County, this afternoon and Saturday. So, conditions will be pretty dry as we head into the weekend.

Confidence levels start to drop quite a bit as we head into early next week. There is about a 70% chance for a fast-moving weather system to pass through the region on Monday, but the exact timing and strength remain uncertain. This system would bring a cold front, leading to increasing winds, higher chances for rain or snow, and cooler temperatures.

Regardless of when this initial system arrives, it will open the door for more active weather through most of next week. Precipitation chances will ramp up as the week progresses. Currently, there is about an 80% chance for a large area of low pressure (trough) to settle over the entire western United States by Thursday and Friday (April 2-3). This looks like the coolest and wettest timeframe region-wide over the next week or so. There is even the possibility for some mixed wintry precipitation on valley floors late next week. Snow levels remain uncertain, so we advise folks to monitor this evolving situation over the next several days as the forecast becomes clearer.

AVIATION

Breezy west-southwest winds will remain over the area through this afternoon, though not as strong as earlier in the week. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots are expected at all aviation terminals through 0300Z this evening. Lingering moisture will create a mid-level cloud deck and a few afternoon showers, potentially obscuring higher terrain and briefly lowering ceilings at area terminals. This is most likely in northwest Montana, including at KGPI. Any showers that develop should dissipate quickly after sunset.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.