textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Significant closed low pressure system moving through the region tonight through Friday bringing widespread snow and cooler temperatures.
- High pressure returns this weekend, bringing warming and drying.
The upper level flow will become southwesterly today ahead of the approaching closed low. This flow pattern will cause numerous showers to develop across the Northern Rockies as snow levels climb to around 6000 feet by this afternoon.
The closed low is still on track to impact the region tonight through Friday morning. The cold front will push through the region Thursday morning causing snow levels to drop to around 3000 feet by the afternoon. The latest model guidance is now indicating that the mid level circulation associated with the trough has shifted northward causing the TROWAL (band of heavier precipitation) to be mainly confined north of the Canadian border. Wrap around precipitation will persist over the region through Thursday night. The latest guidance is highlighting the potential for significant snow along the Mission mountain range into the Seeley/Swan region. The mountains are still expected to receive 1 to 2 feet of new snow by Friday morning, while amounts in the valleys varying from a trace up to 4 inches in the higher valleys along the Continental. Mountain passes across the region are expected to receive 4 to 9 inches of snow from this event. Tree damage and power outages due to snow is still a concern.
A ridge of high pressure will be building over the region this weekend into the first part of next week bringing a warming and drying trend. Temperatures are expected to be running about 10 degrees above seasonal averages by Sunday.
AVIATION
Moisture will be steadily streaming into the region ahead of a significant closed low causing clouds to increase in coverage and lower throughout the day. All terminals are expected to be impacted by shower activity by this afternoon. Heavier showers will be capable of causing reduction in visibility. A cold front will start to push into the region late tonight into Thursday morning causing increase precipitation and gusty winds.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT... Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.
ID...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through late Thursday night for Southern Clearwater Mountains.
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