textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow bands will peak this morning in Lemhi County with a chance for a snow squall.
- Gusty, west winds develop across the region tomorrow and last through Friday.
Low pressure over the northeastern Pacific has been pushing a healthy plume of moisture onshore since about Monday. The plume is still present, but it is shifting southwards as the Pacific low does the same. Precipitation will taper off by mid morning. An upper level 140 kt jet streak overhead will bring enhanced westerly winds, primarily to the mountain crests of west-central and southwest Montana, as well as along the Continental Divide, where gusts will reach 40-50 mph. A High Wind Warning is in effect east of the Divide through Friday morning. Banded snow showers will be a concern this morning south of about I-90. Convective- allowing models indicate some stronger bands over Lemhi County after sunrise. Impacts from banded snow showers are rapid drops in temperature causing flash-freezing of roadways and sudden decreases in visibility.
Precipitation wanes later today and upper level flow turns northwesterly tonight. Some available moisture will keep chances for precipitation in the forecast for northwest Montana overnight and on Thursday. A strong pressure gradient across the Continental Divide will keep windy conditions going on Thursday into Friday morning across western Montana. Model guidance is showing arctic air building east of the Divide on Friday night into Saturday morning. There is still considerable spread in ensemble solutions as to whether the cold air will breach the Divide, and, if it does, how far west will it penetrate.
AVIATION
Intermittent ceiling and visibility restrictions will continue today due to passing snow showers south and along Interstate 90. The window for peak shower intensity is through about 25/18Z, with terminals KHRF, KBTM, and KSMN most likely to see temporary IFR conditions. High westerly winds will develop today. Surface gusts of 25-35 knots will be common at all terminals this afternoon. Expect significantly higher gusts over mountain crests. Precipitation will obscure terrain this morning across west- central and southwest Montana, as well Lemhi County and the Clearwater Range.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for Butte/Blackfoot Region.
ID...None.
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