textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and thunderstorms return afternoon hours into Thursday day.
- Active weather pattern this weekend into next week.
Radar imagery is showing the showers associated with the next weak disturbance currently over eastern Oregon and Washington. This feature will continue to push into north central Idaho this afternoon and then western Montana during the evening. The shower activity is expected to linger through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. A few thunderstorms could develop during the passage of this feature causing locally moderate to heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds. The majority of the region will experience light rainfall with the heaviest amounts being across north central Idaho up into the Mission mountain range and Bob Marshall wilderness. The Mission mountains could experience a half to an inch of new rainfall during the passage of this disturbance.
A transitory ridge slides over the region on Friday bringing a warming and drying trend. Then a dry cold front is expected to push across the Northern Rockies on Saturday. The best probability for storm development on Saturday afternoon will be across Lemhi county into southwest Montana.
The low pressure system associated with the cold front that push into the region will stretch and split on Sunday, keeping the Northern Rockies in cooler and showery conditions. A broad trough low pressure over the western United States will be the driving force of weather over the region next week. Around 62% of the long term models are showing this low pressure system moving over the region by the latter part of next week that could bring significant precipitation.
AVIATION
High clouds will continue to stream over the region ahead of an upper wave that will bring showers and a few thunderstorms across north-central Idaho this afternoon, then into western Montana this evening, generally after 6 pm MDT then continuing overnight. Instability is modest and could be weakened by cloud-cover, but any storms that form could produce lighting, gusty winds to 40 knots, and heavy rain. Showers wane by Thursday morning. A few showers may develop across northwest Montana Thursday afternoon.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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