textproduct: Missoula

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Record Warmth (through Sat): High pressure brings well above normal temperatures. Daily record high potential with considerable sunshine, some high clouds.

- Pattern Shift (Sun-Mon): A transition to cooler, unsettled weather begins Sunday. Expect breezy southwest winds ahead of the system.

- Winter Impacts (Mon-Mon Night): Moderate pass level snow impacts. Snow levels return to valley floors by early Tuesday but limited precipitation is expected at that point.

High pressure is well established over the region. This morning, water vapor satellite imagery shows a very dry air mass aloft moving over the region. This means we will have mostly clear skies today, which will help it warm up and achieve record warm temperatures today under the ridge. Typically this time of year deep snow cover would reflect much of the sunlight from the snow preventing enough warming for the record highs. Cold air pooled up in the valley is also common causing inversions and low cloud cover. However, due to the mild winter so far we have neither deep snow pack or strong valley cold pools, so it's off to record warm temperatures under this ridge today. The warmth is expected to last through Saturday as the ridge slowly weakens.

Flow aloft turns westerly by Saturday evening as a trough of low pressure moves east out of the Gulf of Alaska. This feature will send Pacific moisture onshore, increasing chances for precipitation for northwest Montana on Saturday night. Those chances will spread east on Sunday. Temperatures will initially stay warm enough to support rain in the valley bottoms. A cold front on Monday will bring snow levels down to valley floors. Snow accumulation will still be limited to the higher terrain and mountain passes. While temperatures drop after Sunday, daytime highs still stay about 5 to 10 degrees above average.

AVIATION

Clearing skies this morning will allow some rapid cooling, which is creating the potential for some patchy valley fog near terminals KMSO and KGPI. However, since through most of last night it remained cloudy, the window for the fog to form this morning will be small. If there any impacts to area terminals from fog, we expect them to be intermittent and short lived.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.

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