textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warming and drying continuing today

- Slow-moving showers and isolated thunderstorms return this weekend, initially focused north on Saturday before shifting southward for Sunday.

Ridge of high pressure will continue to be over the region today continuing the warm and dry conditions as temperatures remain to be around 10 degrees above seasonal averages.

Little change in the models for this weekend as the Northern Rockies will be between to low pressure systems, the one over the Hudson Bay and the other that will track across California into the Great Basin. A weak disturbance is still on track to cause a few light showers across northwest Montana on Saturday, especially near Glacier National Park. Then on Sunday the shower activity will be mainly focused across north central Idaho into west central/southwest Montana. These showers are anticipated to be relatively light as the moisture source will be fairly limited. The afternoon instability appears to be great enough for the potential development of a thunderstorm on Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Afternoon convection is expected to develop each afternoon through Tuesday but being more confined to western Montana each day.

A ridge of high pressure is still on track build back over the region by the latter part of the work week.

AVIATION

A ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies for the next 24 hours leading to fair flying conditions. Patchy valley fog will be the biggest impact this morning, but should be limited to near open water locations. KGPI has a low probability of being impacted by fog this morning.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.