textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Mild and quiet weather expected through Wednesday, though morning low clouds or valley fog is possible.

- Two weak systems bring showers Thursday and Friday with light dusting of snow above 5,000 feet, and westerly breezes.

- Mild and dry conditions return for the weekend, with morning fog remaining possible.

High pressure building over the region will lead to stagnant conditions and trapped surface moisture, creating a favorable setup for locally dense valley fog tonight into Tuesday morning, and again on Wednesday morning. Motorists should exercise caution, as visibility will vary significantly over short distances on local roadways. Fog will generally dissipate by each afternoon, allowing daytime temperatures to warm near or slightly above seasonal averages, peaking in the 40s to low 50s.

A pair of weak weather systems will pass through the region on Thursday and Friday, bringing a return to active weather but minimal impacts. Light showers will primarily be focused across northwest Montana, though overall precipitation amounts will remain limited. Snow levels will hover near 5,000 feet. In addition to the showers, expect an uptick in afternoon breezes, particularly on Friday.

High pressure returns this weekend, bringing a stretch of mostly dry conditions, mild afternoons, and localized morning valley fog. By Sunday and Monday, remnant moisture from an atmospheric river impacting the Pacific Northwest coast will spill inland, bringing renewed chances for light showers to northwest Montana. Looking further ahead to Nov 11-14 suggests a broader pattern shift. Atmospheric rivers initially aimed at the Pacific Northwest coast are forecast to sag southward and push inland. This transition would increase the likelihood of more widespread precipitation across our region, including the potential for accumulating mountain snowfall. Confidence in this pattern setup is low to moderate, but it is certainly something we will keep an eye on.

AVIATION

Mostly VFR weather conditions will prevail this afternoon with light terrain-driven winds at the surface and some lower broken clouds hugging terrain creating localized obscurations especially near the Continental Divide. Localized morning fog or low stratus is very likely to develop overnight into Tuesday morning. Any low ceilings or fog is anticipated to lift or burn off by mid- day. Areas of wildfire smoke from prescribed burning may enhance the obscurations due to smoke and fog in the overnight and early morning hours.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.