textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperatures much of this upcoming week.
- Next system arrives Tuesday into Wednesday with high elevation snow and gusty winds.
The Northern Rockies will be under a mild and dry westerly flow pattern Sunday into Monday. The combination of low humidities and breezy conditions will bring elevated fire weather risks along the divide in southwest Montana and across Lemhi County, ID.
Model guidance continues to advertise the next Pacific system arriving Tuesday, with widespread precipitation focusing across northwest Montana and north-central Idaho. Snow levels will rise from 4,000-4,500 feet Tuesday morning to 6,000-6,500 feet Tuesday afternoon with deepening southwesterly flow. Snow levels will come crashing down Wednesday morning, with the latest guidance suggesting higher confidence for a strong cold front arriving. Pressure rises along this front will focus the highest wind gust potential across northwest Montana, where peak valley wind gusts will range from 35-45 mph, with gusts of 50-65 mph across mountain ridgetops and crests. Valley areas along the US Highway 2 corridor west of Kalispell to Libby are being monitored for higher gusts, given statistic guidance showing a 30-40% chance for gusts of 50 mph or greater.
Shower activity will continue under west-northwest flow into Thursday, before the next ridge of high pressure begins to amplify across the region Friday into the weekend. Model ensembles are in strong agreement (90% of members) for this ridge to bring a stark warming trend, with valleys seeing highs reach into the 60s and 70s by next Saturday.
AVIATION
GOES water vapor imagery this morning highlights a dry airmass moving into the Northern Rockies airspace, with cloud cover gradually decreasing. Given clearing skies, patchy valley fog will form through 22/1300Z, along and near bodies of water. Deep mixing this afternoon will promote wind gusts of 15-20kts across western Montana terminals.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Flood Watch until noon MDT today for Flathead/Mission Valleys... Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region.
ID...None.
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