textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Elevated fire weather conditions today due to hot, dry, and breezy conditions, especially in northwest Montana.
- Another surge of monsoon moisture is expected to arrive by Tuesday, increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm chances.
Water vapor satellite imagery show much drier air moving in from the west, which will bring low relative humidity this afternoon. Along with the dry airmass, a strengthening pressure gradient will bring increasing westerly winds across western Montana and north- central Idaho. This will translate to elevated fire weather conditions, especially across western Montana. Currently, there is a 40 percent probability that wind gusts will range between 20 and 25 mph, with afternoon humidity values falling to 15 to 20 percent.
On Monday, a ridge of high pressure builds over the western U.S. and begins to pull up monsoon moisture from the southwest. Initially, the moisture will bring mostly cloud cover. By Tuesday and Wednesday, available precipitable water anomalies will rise to 200 to 250 percent of normal. This moisture, coupled with an incoming shortwave trough, will initiate the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially over west-central and southwest Montana, as well as north-central Idaho. These storms will bring periods of strong, gusty, erratic winds, brief heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. These storms will be similar to what the region experienced over the past three days.
By the end of the week and next weekend, the center of the high pressure system will shift over the Northern Plains, opening the door to increasing westerly winds in the middle of the atmosphere over the Northern Rockies. Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal along with dry conditions.
AVIATION
Water vapor satellite imagery show much drier air moving in from the west across the Northern Rockies this morning. The dry air will limit any convection development, though winds will increase out of the west, with gusts ranging between 20 to 25 knots. Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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