textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A strong ridge of high pressure builds in this weekend, bringing sunny skies and warm temperatures by Sunday.
- The next chance for showers and cooler temperatures arrives by the middle of next week.
Precipitation is rapidly tapering off as drier air moves into western Montana and north-central Idaho. High pressure begins to build overhead on Saturday, kicking off a beautiful weekend with clearing skies, light winds, and a noticeable warming trend.
A ridge of high pressure is building and will be firmly entrenched over the interior Northwest on Sunday and Monday. Afternoon high temperatures will soar 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages, with many valley locations comfortably reaching into the 60s in western Montana and the 70s in central Idaho.
As we head into Tuesday, the ridge axis will begin to shift east ahead of our next Pacific weather maker. A broad trough in the jet stream is forecast to move onshore and approach our area by Wednesday. This will usher in a return to breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and scattered rain showers that will likely persist through Thursday. There is considerable uncertainty concerning the evolution of the next upper-level trough. While national guidance and medium-range models agree on a return to a cooler and more unsettled pattern, there are notable differences regarding the depth of the trough. If the trough digs deeper into the Great Basin, we could see a more prolonged period of widespread valley rain and accumulating mountain snow mid-week. If the system remains flatter and faster, the region will experience a quicker burst of wind and showers with lower precipitation totals.
AVIATION
A ridge building over the region is causing the remaining moisture in the region to spread out into mid level stratus clouds. The air mass remains moist enough that the cloud cover is expected to persist into the evening and will act to delay fog formation until Thursday morning. That being said, the boundary layer remains moist and some fog is expected along area rivers, and any clearing overnight will allow valley fog to expand near terminals KGPI or KMSO.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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