textproduct: Missoula

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Beautiful, mild, and unseasonably warm weather continues through Friday.

- Confidence continues to grow for a sharp transition to a colder pattern with the potential of snow along the Continental Divide this weekend.

Warm and dry conditions remain over our region as high temperatures continue to run 15 to 20 degrees above normal. These conditions are about to change.

Friday southerly breezes increase as a trough drops south out of Canada. Gusts up to 30 mph in valleys along with gusts to 50 mph in the mountains will be common.

Saturday high temperatures will be up to 20 degrees cooler than Friday. Westerly winds gusting 15 to 25 mph may swing northeasterly as a backdoor cold front is forecast. Sunday high temperatures could be an additional 10 degrees cooler. Highs on Friday of mid to upper 70s becoming mid to upper 40s by Sunday. The lowest valleys of North-central ID may remain near 60 but that will also be close to a 30 degree drop compared to upper 80s on Friday.

Precipitation is still the biggest question mark. For instance, from the US-93 corridor and west the 48 hour total is 0.00 inches up to 0.50 inch. This means 25% of the models suggest precipitation will remain along the Divide, while the 25% wetter models suggest up to 0.50 inch over most of western MT.

There is some confidence that along the Continental Divide and in southwest MT there could be 0.50 to 1.50 inches of precipitation by Monday morning. Couple that with snow levels lowering below 4000 feet and area mountain passes could receive multiple wet, slushy inches of snow. Add extra time to your travels if crossing the Divide on Sunday. Also if you have outdoor plans that take you above 4000 feet this weekend, especially in and around Glacier National Park, prepare for wet and raw conditions to avoid hypothermia.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will dominate across all Northern Rockies terminals through Thursday under high pressure. Light winds and clear skies will persist, with localized morning mist/fog possible in low valleys, especially KGPI.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.

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