textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Minor Road Impacts This Evening into Monday Morning: Light valley rain, localized black ice, mainly northwest Montana. Light snow on Lolo, Lookout and Marias passes.
- Mid Next Week: High pressure returns, continued above-normal temperatures.
Today as valley inversions break, temperatures climb into the 50s in western MT and around 60F in Hells Canyon ID, under light southerly winds. There is low probability of a record or two breaking today.
A weak cold front pushes through this evening into the overnight, bringing light precipitation. This is the tricky part of the forecast, we feel confident at Lookout, Lolo, and Marias Passes that 1 to 3 inches of snow will fall causing only minor impacts. While the valleys of northwest Montana will be different, US-93 and west, the timing of rain will be in the early evening. East of US-93, rain will fall but later in the evening and overnight. US-2 east of West Glacier and US-93 north of Whitefish may have areas of ice if the roads remain wet through sunrise on Monday, be prepared for localized icy patches during the morning commute.
High pressure rebounds this week and very warm temperatures return, with the potential of records falling Thursday and Friday. Some caveats are how quickly can valley inversions rebuild creating stability and how strong. Locations where valley inversions rebuild, expect patchy fog and morning stratus.
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of today as considerable mid- and high-level clouds stream overhead. By late this afternoon, an approaching cold front will promote valley mixing, bringing gusty winds of 15 to 25 kts. Scattered to numerous showers will also develop late this afternoon and continue through Monday morning, primarily focusing from US-12 northward. Precipitation amounts will be light, generally remaining below 0.05 inches in the valleys. Currently, only KGPI has a 30% chance or less of receiving light rain between 02/05 and 02/09z. Snow levels will start near 6000 feet before lowering to 4000 feet by early Monday, still valley precipitation remains as rain.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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