textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain and snow showers continue today and early Friday.
- A ridge building over the region this weekend will set up warm temperatures to start next week.
- The next system with precipitation is expected around mid-next week.
A closed low over the region today will migrate across the region today causing instability and showers. Snow showers will reach the valley floors in many places in western Montana, but due to the recent warmth and solar heating the ground temperatures will be warm enough to melt it before it can accumulate on the ground. However, some elevated surfaces like picnic tables, grass, or fences may accumulate some snow.
Late Friday a ridge starts to build over the region, setting up for warmer temperatures over the weekend and early next week. By Sunday afternoon the lower elevations of central Idaho will be up into the mid and upper 70s with western Montana valleys into the mid 70s by Monday.
Ensembles generally agree on an active pattern returning Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Again, this will be a showery pattern due to a trough or a low moving through with the potential for thunderstorms.
AVIATION
A closed low migrating over the region today will cause some convection. The main driver of the convection will be steep lapse rates and good solar heating. But limited precipitable water and an overall cold atmosphere will limit the strength and coverage of the showers. Due to the cold air mass, showers are expected to be snow showers even in the valleys. However, due to the solar radiation and recent warmth, warm ground temperatures will prevent accumulation at area terminals.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region... Lower Clark Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ this morning for Eastern Lemhi County...Northern Clearwater Mountains... Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County.
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