textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Summer-like conditions this week
- Chance for showers/thunderstorms in Lemhi County and southwest Montana today
- Cold front Friday to bring a change: showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds, then cooler, fall-like conditions this weekend.
- Frosty mornings to follow this weekend into early next week.
Low pressure spinning over Nevada this morning will track northeast today, sending moisture into Lemhi County and southwest Montana, including Butte, this afternoon and evening. There will be enough moisture and instability to fuel showers and thunderstorms. Wind gusts to 30 mph and lightning will be the main threats. Otherwise, expect fair weather across the Northern Rockies featuring above-normal temperatures, light winds, and clear skies, through Thursday under dry southwesterly flow aloft.
On Friday, a cold front will disrupt our recent warm and dry weather. Despite timing differences with the front passage, there is a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms if we're able to warm up enough. If we were to get a squall line forming with the front with embedded thunder, then strong gusty winds could be possible impacting recreation on area lakes.
On Saturday, it could remain quite breezy across the region, but it will be much cooler with highs in the 60s. Some locations across northwest Montana may remain showery with some cloud cover. These areas could experience temperatures in the 50s until any sun breaks out. Both Saturday and Sunday temperatures will be near to below seasonal levels. With the colder night-time temperatures, frost will again be in the cards.
AVIATION
High pressure will keep fair weather in the forecast for today. This morning, chances for fog are lingering at KGPI (and, to a lesser extent, KSMN), where dew point depression is about where it was last night with calm winds and clear skies. Duration of fog has been decreasing each morning, so expect that trend to continue this morning. This afternoon, moisture from the southwest will enter into Lemhi County and southwest Montana, brining chances for showers and thunderstorms to KSMN and KBTM. Thunderstorms that do form will be capable of gusty winds of about 25 knots, lightning, and brief heavy rain dropping visibility.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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