textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Peak warmth occurs today, with above-average temperatures continuing through the forecast period.

- Strong winds are expected on Tuesday ahead of a cold front.

- Rain and snow showers return next weekend, especially in the mountains.

Temperatures are on track to be 15 to 20 degrees above average this afternoon. Even after the cold front passes on Tuesday, temperatures will remain 2 to 5 degrees above average. Late in the week, they will reach 10 degrees above average again. Even with the active weather, the region will not see an air mass cool enough to drop temperatures below average, which are generally in the low-to-mid 50s by the end of the week.

Confidence is increasing for strong winds on Tuesday. Wind Advisories have been issued that go into effect at 9AM tomorrow morning, and remain in place through 9PM. Widespread wind gusts over 30 mph are expected across the Northern Rockies for most of Tuesday afternoon. Widespread gusts over 40 mph are expected for a few hours between 11 AM - 6 PM, and isolated damaging wind gusts over 50 mph are possible as the cold front moves through.

Current forecasts show the chances for wind gusts over 40 mph are 80 to 100 percent in the mountains and range from 20 to 50 percent in the valleys. In the mountains, chances for 50 mph gusts range from 40 to 75 percent. In the valleys, the chance is generally less than 20 percent, with the notable exceptions of the Bitterroot Valley west of Highway 93 and the southwest Mission Valley near Hot Springs, where there is a 30 to 50 percent chance for a gust over 50 mph.

Another ridge builds in for Thursday and Friday, but as southwest flow becomes established this weekend, showers and precipitation chances increase. A trough passage is possible by Sunday or Monday.

AVIATION

A ridge of high pressure remains dominant over the region through Tuesday morning, bringing VFR flight conditions. Some morning fog along the rivers near terminals KMSO and KGPI is possible, but this is not expected to expand into the terminal areas. Late tonight (around 07/06Z), winds will start increasing ahead of a windy day on Tuesday. The strongest wind gusts tomorrow are expected between 07/1700Z and 08/0000Z, with widespread gusts between 30-35 kts.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region... Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys... Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...None.