textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain diminishes by this evening.

- A brief drying and warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Fog or low clouds are possible each morning.

- Chance for frost in high valleys of southwest Montana.

- Unsettled with showers on Friday. Growing confidence for a wet and cool system with high elevation snow developing by this weekend, that may start as early as Friday.

A drying trend comes into play late Tuesday into Wednesday. Seasonable temperatures in the mid 70s for many valley locations are anticipated. Chilly mornings and even some fog will feel very fall like to end the week.

Beginning on Thursday, winds will increase from the west as zonal (westerly) flow develops ahead of the next approaching weather system. This could cause some increased chop on local lakes as well as possibly enhancing fire weather concerns across far southwest Montana, which has largely been missed by the recent precipitation event.

A digging trough on Friday will bring showers to the region with cooler temperatures. This initial system may be a quick mover ahead of the slower trough that is forecast to develop Saturday/Sunday which could bring more precipitation and high mountain snowfall. Highs during the weekend could range in the 50s and 60s. As the low pressure system approaches from the west, breezy northeasterly winds could be possible on Saturday which could be impactful to area lakes.

AVIATION

Decreasing rain showers are expected by this evening across northwest Montana. With general high pressure over the region, expect local regimes generally less than 15 knots. Patchy fog or low cloud development is possible tonight. No chance for precipitation on Wednesday as mainly VFR conditions will prevail after any morning fog or stratus.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Flood Watch until noon MDT today for Flathead/Mission Valleys... Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...None.