textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Frost/freeze concerns remains Tuesday morning.

- Northwest flow becomes established for the rest of the week with unsettled but mild conditions.

Clear skies are allowing temperatures to drop overnight. Expect widespread temperatures in the 20s and low 30s this morning and while there will be moderation Tuesday, expect another cold start. For the kids, a jacket in the morning will be carried home during the afternoon. Vulnerable vegetation will need to be taken care of over the next two mornings.

Afternoon heating today and potentially again tomorrow will allow for isolated showers, production of graupel, and potentially a lightning strike or two.

We will remain in northwest flow with a high pressure ridge just off the west coast. In the simplest terms, this week will see a warming trend and by Friday temperatures will be a few degrees above normal. A few disturbances will slide south along the eastern part of ridge producing periods of showers. Currently, the models are not overly excited, however, Wednesday evening into Thursday could be a period of more organized shower activity, especially along the continental Divide.

AVIATION

Cold mornings may allow for fog in the vicinity of terminals, especially KBTM and KGPI. Otherwise, the atmosphere will remain unstable but dry, showers may develop in the vicinity of KGPI between 18/2100 and 19/0000z. Thunderstorms are very low probability, 20% or less, however a lightning strike is possible in the Flathead Valley and surrounding mountains.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

ID...None.