textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Record Warmth (Wed-Sat): High pressure brings well above normal temperatures. Daily record high potential with considerable sunshine.
- Pattern Shift (Sun-Mon): A transition to cooler, unsettled weather begins Sunday. Expect breezy southwest winds Sunday ahead of the system.
- Winter Impacts (Mon-Mon Night): Moderate pass level snow impacts. Snow levels return to valley floors by early Tuesday but limited precipitation at that point.
Today through Saturday...An amplified upper-level ridge will dominate the region through Saturday, bringing well above normal temperatures and the potential for daily record highs. While periodic high and mid-level clouds will drift overhead, considerable sunshine is expected. The primary forecast challenge remains the potential for valley fog and stratus which could suppress daytime warming, particularly in northwest Montana and Clearwater County.
Sunday through Tuesday... A pattern transition begins Sunday as showers and southwest winds increase ahead of an incoming system. The ridge will be displaced by an upper- level trough, introducing cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. Models have shown consistent agreement regarding a cold front passage on Monday, which will lower snow levels to valley floors by Tuesday morning. However, moisture appears limited after the colder air arrives. Overall, precipitation amounts look modest, with snow impacts likely limited to moderate winter driving conditions on mountain passes. Overall, this period represents a shift away from the stagnant high- pressure ridge rather than a significant winter storm event.
AVIATION
High pressure ridging will ensure VFR conditions prevail across most terminals through Saturday, with light winds and passing high/mid- level clouds. The primary concern during this period is the potential for overnight/morning IFR or LIFR conditions due to valley fog and low stratus. The highest probability for fog development exists at KGPI, KMSO, and KSMN. Additionally, more widespread low stratus may develop and expand across northwest Montana, aided by moisture flux from Flathead Lake, though confidence in coverage and duration remains low at this time.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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