textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warming trend through next week.
- High confidence(>90%) that Tuesday will be a windy day.
- Showers and thunderstorms possible along Divide and northwest Montana by Wednesday.
Warm high pressure will bring warm temperatures well into the 80s for most areas, except 90s in the lower central Idaho valleys, by Monday.
On Tuesday, an upper disturbance will begin to flatten the ridge in place. This will cause the wind gradient to tighten up considerably. Stronger winds from aloft could make it down to the surface in the form of wind gusts 30 to 45 mph, 50 to 60 mph in the mountains in western Montana. Those with outdoor recreation plans should monitor the forecast closely especially for area lakes and the higher terrain. The combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring elevated fire weather concerns along and east of the divide in southwest Montana.
An upper level wave on Wednesday could bring showers and a few thunderstorms over the Divide and over portions of northwest Montana Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main threats would be lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.
Warmer temperatures are possible thereafter through the rest of the week. A few disturbances could continue to provide showers across northwest Montana.
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected today and Monday thanks to warm high pressure. Any easterly winds this morning will become more northerly and weaken considerably.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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