textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold front passing through this evening bringing gusty winds to western Montana and north central Idaho

- Rain and high elevation snow showers across north central Idaho and northwest Montana tonight into Saturday morning

A cold front will continue to move through western Montana this afternoon, with the main impact being gusty winds. High resolution models continue to show the strongest winds through the Mission and Bitterroot valleys and along the Highway 2 corridor from Kila to Happy's Inn, where local wind gusts could approach 45 mph, most likely between 2pm and 8pm tonight. Wind will also cause choppy, hazardous conditions on area lakes, including over Flathead Lake into this evening. Wind advisories remain in effect.

Secondary to the wind will be the development of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm with and behind the frontal passage. North central Idaho and northwest Montana have the best chances of seeing measurable precipitation. Snow levels will drop with the front to around 5000 feet by Saturday morning. This will likely bring a light dusting of snow to the higher elevations of northwest Montana, including in Glacier National Park. The moisture feed with this system is minimal however with precipitation ending pretty quickly behind frontal passage. Those in the backcountry should be prepared for a change to cool, showery and raw conditions with a threat for hypothermia into Saturday morning.

The majority of forecast models show a zonal (westerly flow pattern) over the region into early next week. This will mainly lead to drier but breezy conditions with temperatures near normal for this time of year.

Forecast models continue to show lower confidence in the pattern going into next weekend with regard to a potential low pressure system. Right now, around 30 percent of model solutions show a much colder and deeper trough, with the remaining 70 percent either showing continued zonal flow or a weaker trough passage.

AVIATION

A cold front will continue to track through western Montana through this afternoon. Expect increasing mechanical turbulence, surface wind gusts, and mountain obscurations, particularly over North- Central Idaho and Northwest Montana. The strongest winds are anticipated through portions of the Mission and Bitterroot valleys, where westerly gusts could approach 40 to 45 kts, mainly between 25/2200z and 26/0300z. Showers will lower ceilings and visibilities at KGPI and surrounding airfields by this evening, with freezing levels lowering to near 5,000 ft MSL by Saturday morning.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region... Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

ID...None.