textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Significant rain event for northwest Montana through Tuesday morning.
- Gradual drying trend develops mid-week alongside morning valley fog.
- 80 percent of ensemble solutions depict another weather-maker to impact the Northern Rockies this weekend.
As anticipated, the upper low has been bringing moderate to heavy rain intensities to the region overnight. No changes were made to the forecast. We still have flood watches out for portions of northwest Montana today to account for the potential of lowland flooding in poor drainage areas, rapid rises on streams and creeks, possibly reaching bankfull, and debris fall on roadways. The axis of heavier rainfall will continue to shift northwards with time today. From now through Tuesday morning, between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected in those areas. From the Mission Mountains north to the Glacier Region, the probability for exceeding 2 inches ranges from 30% in West Glacier to over 70% in the higher elevations.
Showers will persist on Tuesday mainly across northwest Montana while other areas will start to moderate. Lingering boundary-layer moisture will support overnight and early morning fog and low stratus clouds on Wednesday and possibly Thursday.
Temperatures will rebound Wednesday through Friday, getting back to near seasonal levels for this time of year...70s and 80s for the lower elevations of Idaho. The flow becomes a bit zonal on Thursday which means that breezy conditions could develop, generally westerly winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, locally higher towards the Divide. This could bring choppy conditions at area lakes.
Ensemble guidance and the upstream pattern evolution continues to favor another trough pattern this coming weekend. We could be looking at another round of wet weather with possible mountain snow above 7000 feet(40 to 50% chance).
AVIATION
Expect IFR to MVFR conditions due to moderate to heavy rain, reducing both visibility and ceilings today across northwest Montana. Showers will diminish at all the terminals except GPI today. Westerly winds will pick up this afternoon at MSO, HRF, BTM and SMN, generally gusts to 20 knots. Wrap-around showers will continue tonight and could impact GPI and MSO at times.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.
ID...None.
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