textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity each afternoon through early next week.

- Warming and drying latter part of next week under a ridge of high pressure.

Southwest flow will continue over the region today with a very subtle disturbance moving through the Northern Rockies. This disturbance will help kick off showers and thunderstorms in north central Idaho and then track into west central and southwest Montana. These storms will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall, small hail and lightning.

A weak ridge of high pressure builds over the region on Sunday, but enough lingering low level moisture will allow for the development of isolated storms during the afternoon and evening. This ridge of high pressure will persist into Monday but the models diverge on the extent of the afternoon storm development.

On Tuesday, a low amplitude trough moves into the Pacific Northwest causing the flow to be flattened over the Northern Rockies. The westerly flow will allow for another round of afternoon convection. Then Wednesday through Friday a ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the region causing a warming and drying trend.

AVIATION

Yesterday's precipitation has allowed for the development of patchy fog and low stratus in some of the valleys of western Montana. KGPI and KBTM have the best potential of being impacted by the fog/stratus this morning. A weak disturbance will move through the region this afternoon into the evening causing another round of showers and thunderstorms that could impact area terminals at times.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.