textproduct: Missoula

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Showery conditions through Wednesday.

- April showers are out; May flowers (and 70s!) are in. Expect a 10-degree warm up above the seasonal norm by Friday, May 1st, sticking with us through early next week.

- Low probability for isolated thunderstorms this weekend over Divide and/or southern Bitterroot Mountains.

We continue to be under cyclonic flow today, lingering into Wednesday. Multiple weak waves embedded in the flow will help to initiate rain/graupel shower activity. The latest lightning probabilities depict 30 to 50 percent chance over the mountains in northwest Montana this afternoon. There were a few strikes yesterday earlier in the afternoon mainly over western Clearwater County and near the Idaho/Montana border. The overnight lows will hover near freezing in many valley locations. The exception will be the lower-elevation valleys in Idaho and Clearwater counties, which should stay in the upper 30s to low 40s.

On Wednesday a large upper ridge centered over the Pacific coast will start to shift eastwards. This will mean slightly milder temperatures for us, generally near seasonable levels. Scattered showers will still be possible in the afternoon.

After that, upper level ridging will allow for a decent warmup with gorgeous Spring weather to start the beginning of May! By the weekend, a large upper ridge will set up over the British Columbia coast, extending south and eastwards. There could be a couple of shortwaves that track south over the region this weekend which could bring a few showers/isolated thunderstorms or clouds.

Around 90 percent of the ensemble clusters depict more warm and dry ridging next Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

Moist northwest flow over the region combined with a cool air mass and intensifying spring sun will cause convection today. Convection will mainly be showers, but we cannot rule out some isolated thunderstorms as well. Precipitation amounts are expected to be only a few hundredths with any storms or showers as they will only produce light to moderate rain and are moving fairly quickly. Minimal impacts to terminals are expected.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.

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