textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue this afternoon.

- Ridge of high pressure Wednesday through Friday causing warming and drying.

- Disturbance this weekend causing active weather over the Northern Rockies

A disturbance will be moving through the Northern Rockies today. This feature will cause a few showers to develop across northwest Montana late this morning. This afternoon more storms will develop across northwest Montana and over southwest Montana. Unlike previous days these storms will be capable of strong and gusty outflows with some guidance indicating gusts up to 50 mph. The disturbance will also cause increase westerly winds during the afternoon which will create near critical fire weather conditions especially over north central Idaho.

A ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies Wednesday through Friday. This ridge will cause a warming and drying trend during this period as temperatures quickly climb to around 10 degrees above seasonal averages by Thursday and linger into Friday.

This weekend the consensus of the models is for a disturbance to move through the region causing cooler temperatures, increased winds and the potential for more convection. The strength and timing of the disturbance is the uncertainty at this time.

AVIATION

A disturbance will be moving through the Northern Rockies today. A few showers are expected to develop across northwest Montana late this morning which could have an impact at KGPI. This afternoon more showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across northwest and southwest Montana. Unlike previous days these storms will be capable of strong outflow winds which could impact area terminals. KGPI, KBTM and KSMN have the best potential to be impacted by these storms this afternoon and evening.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.