textproduct: Missoula

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Chance for showers/thunderstorms in Lemhi County and southwest Montana on Tuesday

- Warm, dry week ahead for the rest of the region.

- Showers return late next week or early next weekend.

Satellite imagery early this morning shows dry air under a ridge of high pressure over the northwestern U.S. including the Northern Rockies. A closed circulation of low pressure is spinning over central California and moving inland. The ridge of high pressure will keep the Northern Rockies dry today, with high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Patchy morning fog will affect some valleys of western Montana. Fog will remain in the forecast into midweek. The California low will track northeast today and on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, moisture associated with that system will enter Lemhi County and southwest Montana, including Salmon and Butte, resulting in chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. The moisture feed is short-lived, though, and dry conditions with above-normal temperatures will continue through Thursday.

A shift towards more seasonable temperatures and chances for precipitation arrive on Friday. Most model ensemble members (about 75%) are in favor of a trough of low pressure digging along the Canadian coast and moving into the Pacific Northwest by Saturday. Details on this event are still unclear, as there is little agreement on timing and intensity of this system. Regardless of precipitation chances, expect a shift back towards seasonable temperatures on Friday lasting through next weekend.

AVIATION

Keeping fog in the 21/0600Z TAFs for KGPI, KMSO, and KSMN this morning. Calm winds, clear skies, and dew point depressions almost identical to yesterday (Sunday) point towards a repeat of fog forcing IFR conditions for this morning, especially at KGPI. Beyond morning fog, high pressure will bring fair weather across the Northern Rockies airspace. Expect light and variable winds under mostly sunny skies today.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.

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