textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warming the next couple of days, but potential for isolated to scattered showers.

- Cooler and wet conditions expected this coming weekend.

A low amplitude ridge will be over the region the next couple of days causing a warming trend, but the subtle disturbances passing through the ridge will cause cloud cover along with isolated to scattered showers. This afternoon the best potential for shower activity will be along the Continental Divide around Glacier National Park. Then tonight a feature is expected to pass across north central Idaho into west central Montana.

Then on Thursday a pulse of energy pushes across the region ahead of the strong low pressure system. This disturbance will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The cold front is still on track to move across the Northern Rockies on Friday with the large low pressure system settling over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies this weekend. All long term models are in agreement of this pattern change for the weekend, but the path of the closed low across the region this weekend into first part of next week is still a little uncertain. The path of the low will have a significant impact on what areas will receive the heaviest precipitation amounts. The current consensus of the models have the heaviest precipitation across Idaho and Lemhi county into southwest Montana with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain Saturday into Sunday. Then the heaviest precipitation shifts up into northwest Montana Sunday into Monday as low shifts to the east. Glacier National Park is still expected to receive 1 to 2 inches of moisture. Snow levels will drop to around 7000 feet Sunday and Monday mornings bring accumulating snow to the higher terrain. Sunday appears to be the coldest day as afternoon readings will be around 20 degrees below seasonal averages.

AVIATION

Clear skies this morning across the region with most terminals experience light and variable winds. The exception being KMSO where a drainage wind is causing gusty easterly winds. This wind will diminish during the late morning hours. A few showers are expected to develop across northwest Montana this afternoon, especially near Glacier National Park. KGPI has a low probability of being impacted by these storms. The winds will become westerly this afternoon at all terminals. Tonight a weak disturbance will pass across north central Idaho into west central Montana bringing increased clouds with slight chance of shower activity.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.