textproduct: Missoula

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- A Canadian cold front will bring snow to northwest Montana, including the Flathead valley late tonight into Thursday

- Warmer and drier conditions expected Friday into the weekend

An unstable airmass today into this evening will favor showers through the evening hours. Brief periods of accumulating snow will be possible on mountain passes, while valleys will see mainly rain or a rain snow mix.

The backdoor Canadian cold front is still on schedule to cross the Continental Divide late tonight into Thursday. An area of enhanced snowfall will occur with the front, primarily affecting the Thursday morning commute. The cold front will bring a period of moderate snow for locations generally along and north of Highway 2 tomorrow morning, and then across Flathead Lake by early afternoon. By then, the ground temps will be warm enough that any snow accumulation would melt on the roads. Once the cold front moves through from the northeast, drier air will cause showers to end in the afternoon up north, but continue across west-central Montana. Winter weather advisories have been issued to account for a period of winter-like travel tomorrow morning.

High pressure begins to build over the region Friday and will linger into the weekend. Friday morning could be quite chilly due to drier air moving into the region and clearing skies. Warmer and drier conditions will be on tap through the weekend, though forecast models are not warming temperatures to the degree previous runs were showing.

Confidence has increased for a cold front to move through the region on Monday. Increasing clouds, breezy winds and possibly some evening thunderstorms will accompany the front. The majority of forecast models (around 80 percent) do rebuild the high pressure ridge by Wednesday.

AVIATION

Snow showers will persist this afternoon and evening over southwest Montana including KBTM. Showers will be capable of dropping visibility down to about 2SM around 03/0000Z. A cold front will cross the Continental Divide by early Thursday morning, resulting in a shift to gusty northerly or northeasterly winds. KGPI will experience decreasing visibility and ceilings due to snow by about 03/1300Z. Impacts will spread southward to KMSO by about 03/1500Z.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Thursday for Kootenai/Cabinet Region...West Glacier Region.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM MDT Thursday for Flathead/Mission Valleys.

ID...None.