textproduct: Missoula

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES:

- Light snowfall Wednesday.

- Pockets of light freezing rain in valleys and snow at pass level are possible later this week.

- February will begin with very mild temperatures.

Expect dry conditions today. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will move across the region. This orientation of this wave has changed just slightly over the past several model runs. It will have a little bit more forcing, especially across north-central Idaho, meaning that the precipitation will be more widespread there. The thicknesses are fairly cold, which could point to mostly snow. The morning commute across north- central Idaho could experience a period of light snow, with roads covered for a period. The probabilities are higher, 60+ percent for 1 inch or higher in the Clearwater Mountains and Lookout Pass.

Additional waves of moisture will be possible Thursday through Saturday. Our region will be on the edge of the atmospheric river impacting the Cascades on Thursday. Think that with the orientation of the upper ridge to our west, that snow levels may be sluggish to rise much. It's not until Thursday night when the above freezing air begins to move in aloft. Given the recent cold spell, ground temperatures will remain frozen even if air temperatures rise above freezing. This could create potential for light freezing rain or a wintry mix Thursday night. The increased wind gradient on Friday in the post-warm front environment should be able to mix out in a lot of locations, causing temperatures to rise into the 30s and 40s. Showers will be decreasing on Saturday and many valleys will be much warmer than average for this time of year!

Sunday (February 1st), will be continued mild with temperatures into the 40s and 50s. High clouds will stream in overhead with the next weather system to bring a cold front passage and possible pass-level snow(40-50%) by Monday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions with dry weather is expected Today. A wave will bring light snowfall across north-central Idaho generally after 1200Z/0400PST Wednesday, then transition to mountain snow showers by the afternoon across the remainder of the region.

MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. ID...None.

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