textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Strong to damaging Winds Sunday into Monday, with a 60 to 80 percent chance of widespread gusts over 40 mph in the valleys.
- Active Pattern for the rest of next week/weekend; potential for more wind and winter weather impacts.
Very light showers are expected this morning, mostly in the mountains, and will taper off during the afternoon. Today will be a breezy day with winds increasing during the afternoon Sunday. The highest confidence for damaging winds is in the Glacier National Park region, so the high wind watch in that area was upgraded to a warning on this shift. If the model trends continue, it is likely watches will upgraded to warnings in our mountain zones and valleys of southwest MT during subsequent forecasts.
Snow levels will be above 6000 feet initially, a cold front on Sunday will drive snow levels down and destabilize the atmosphere. While high resolution models depict banding formations, the most likely scenario is brief but moderate showers. These showers will be capable of the strongest wind gusts and brief but rapid visibility degradations.
Active weather will continue throughout the week. The position of the polar jet stream will cause snow levels to fluctuate in and out valleys through the end of the week. Light slushy accumulations in valleys each night, Wednesday through Friday, is possible. Heavy, wet snow accumulation's above 5000 feet are expected after Tuesday, potentially 1 to 3 feet of snow by Friday.
AVIATION
Light precipitation is possible this morning, especially in the mountains which at times will be obscured. Expect afternoon breezes up to 18 kts, generally from the south, with low level wind shear along ridges late this afternoon and evening.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region... Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys... Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.
High Wind Warning from noon Sunday to noon MST Monday for West Glacier Region.
ID...None.
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