textproduct: Missoula
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- Expect a warm and dry weekend, with temperatures running about 10 degrees above normal.
- Cold front passage Monday bringing cooler, breezy and showery conditions
- Closed low bringing widespread precipitation for the latter part of the work week
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be over the Northern Rockies today through tonight. This ridge will cause warm and dry conditions, as temperatures will be running around 10 degrees above normal. The ridge shifts to the east on Sunday causing the upper level flow to become southwesterly. This flow pattern will allow some moisture to make its way into north central Idaho into northwest Montana by Sunday afternoon. Snow levels will be fairly high so snow will be mainly confined to the higher terrain with minimal impacts to mountain passes.
A cold front is expected to push across the Northern Rockies Sunday night into Monday. This front will cause widespread precipitation with lowering snow levels along with breezy westerly winds and cooler temperatures. Temperatures on Monday appear to be running around 10 degrees below seasonal averages. Lookout and Marias passes expected to receive the most snow during this frontal passage with totals being around 3 to 6 inches over Sunday night through Monday. Lolo and Lost Trail could receive 1 to 4 inches of snow. The majority of western Montana is expected to experience gusts of 20 to 40 mph by Monday afternoon, the biggest concern will be choppy conditions on Flathead Lake.
A transitory ridge of high pressure is expected to slide through the region Tuesday through Wednesday leading to a warming and drying trend. Then all the models are showing a decent trough of low pressure impacting the Northern Rockies by the end of the week. The differences in the models deal with the timing and strength of the trough as it passes through the region Thursday into Friday. Accumulating snow in the higher terrain along with the potential of higher valley snow is still a possibility during the trough passage.
AVIATION
Fair fly conditions are expected with some high level clouds streaming over portions of north central Idaho into northwest Montana. Winds of 20 knots are still anticipated to develop during the afternoon hours today.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None. ID...None.
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