textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Isolated strong wind gusts and localized flooding will be possible with scattered showers and storms across NE TN and SW VA this afternoon.

- Additional shower and storm chances can be expected each day next week, especially during the afternoon hours.

- Slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the first half of the week, returning to near seasonal norms for the latter half.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Anomalous upper troughing continues its slow eastward progression into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon. The associated occluded surface low is centered near the KY/IN/OH border, with an accompanying cold front advecting into eastern portions of the forecast area. Regional radar imagery depicts isolated to weakly scattered showers along this boundary locally.

Between model derived soundings and SPC mesoanalysis, this afternoons environment will be accompanied by MLCAPE 500-1250 J/kg, PWAT values around 1.5-1.8 inches, and effective shear near 30 kts. The slightly drier air relative to the previous day will also contribute to DCAPE 800-1100 J/kg across the northeast. Because of this, a marginal risk for a isolated strong to damaging winds is in place across the northeast. However, latest radar trends provide decreasing confidence in this occurrence. Recent rains have also helped saturate soils with many 1 hr ffgs in the 1.3-1.5 inch range, thus, isolated flooding could become a threat where slower moving or training storms occur along the boundary.

A largely quiet night is expected, with the exception of patchy fog for some. An upper low is expected to become gradually cutoff from mean flow as we head into the work week. This will promote daily chances for showers and maybe a few storms as the upper low churns over the southern Appalachians. Temperatures will also remain slightly below normal for early August. Because of worked over soils, broad marginal risks remain in place for isolated flooding potential each day for the next several days. Some discrepancies remain with how/when the cutoff melds back into mean flow late week, but latest trends suggest increasing influence of longwave troughing to our northwest will continue daily precip chances even as the low becomes absorbed into mean flow sometime late week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A stray shower may still be around overnight, and then scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be around during the day especially in the afternoon. Will just have VCSH in the TAFs for now given the uncertainty in timing and coverage, and will keep thunder out given the current low probability of thunder at any given terminal. Low cigs and possible fog development tonight are still uncertain, but the chance looks high enough for MVFR cigs all sites to include for several hours late tonight into Monday morning. Will also include MVFR level fog at TRI, and cannot rule out dense fog at TRI especially in the sky temporarily clears for several hours overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 86 70 88 / 10 60 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 84 69 86 / 20 50 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 68 84 68 86 / 10 50 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 81 66 84 / 50 50 20 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.