textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and early evening. A few may become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat.

- Numerous showers and storms can be expected Sunday, and a few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, but chances for showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Convection has been developing along an outflow boundary that is moving across our area, and a weak summertime frontal boundary is still off to our north and west. Currently, MLCAPE values around 1500 to 2000+ J/kg over much of the area and DCAPE values near or exceeding 1000 J/kg indicate an environment favorable for strong storms with the potential for damaging winds this afternoon into early evening hours. Shear is weak, so the primary threat will be damaging winds with a much lower threat of large hail. PWAT values in the 1.7 to 2 inch range will also allow for heavy downpours and the possibility of localized flooding if any areas see repeated or prolonged bouts of heavy rain. CAMS have been handling the convection extremely poorly overall, which is not too surprising given the lack of significant forcing. How much if any redevelopment later this afternoon will occur behind the initial convection is still uncertain, although a few of the CAMS do show convection developing and moving mainly across portions of SW VA and NE TN later this afternoon/evening which is the area closer to the better forcing. These northern areas currently look to be the most under threat for stronger storms later today, although the threat further south is non-zero.

Weak summertime fronts do not often lend themselves to high confidence about how far they will progress before stalling and this one is not an exception to the rule, but it currently looks like the front will stall not far from our southern border by early Saturday. Models differ on how much convection will be around during the day Saturday, but southern areas closer to the front and the higher mountain terrain would be the areas most likely to see a shower or storm during the afternoon.

By Saturday night and Sunday, short wave energy will be moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, dragging a stronger cold front through our area. Details such as timing of the front will matter and are still unclear, but ensemble data suggests the potential for significant CAPE and slightly more shear than today, and a few storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds likely to be the primary threat. Torrential downpours will also be possible. Will mention this threat in the HWO.

A broad trough will be over the eastern CONUS during the coming work week. Overall, we will see below normal temperatures early then temperatures will trend back to around normal by later in the week. Models are in poor agreement for how much precipitation will be around early in the week, but overall the NBM ensemble approach shows drier conditions for the Monday through Wednesday time frame with just a few isolated to scattered showers and storms around at times. Another cold front is forecast to be approaching late in the period with an increase in rain chances again late week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Will be showers and thunderstorms around early in the period, with highest confidence of occurrence at CHA. Will try to time periods of highest probability with tempo and prob30 thunder groups. Outside of any showers/storms, will go with a VFR forecast. However, some lower clouds and/or fog development will be possible late tonight although confidence of any impacts at the terminals is too low to include for now.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 72 88 / 20 30 30 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 70 86 / 60 20 40 100 Oak Ridge, TN 69 88 70 85 / 50 20 50 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 88 66 85 / 50 10 40 100

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.