textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Lingering showers and clouds will exit this evening, with fog development likely late tonight.

- Dry weather can be expected Wednesday and Thursday, then chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast later in the week.

- A hot and drier pattern looks likely as we head into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered showers persist across NE TN this afternoon underneath a mid level trough that is creating some weak, shallow instability. Models have been too quick to erode the cloud cover, which has remained broken to overcast. Once the trough clears our area around sunset, the clouds should scatter/clear. With a surface high building in overnight, winds will drop to calm in most spots, allowing for fog development. Multiple models are showing signals of fog, so it will be included in the weather grids tonight. This is dependent on the afternoon clouds clearing out this evening.

Dry weather with below normal temperatures can be expected Wednesday, but with more sunshine than today. High clouds increase late in the day as a shortwave trough approaches the area from the west. The main vort max with this trough passes to our south, as does much of the precip, but southern sections could see an isolated shower during the day Thursday.

For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft and the potential for short wave energy to bring some showers and storms, although timing of these short wave features is still uncertain. Right now, the Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have the highest chances for showers and storms. The details are still too much in flux for any confidence in severe storm chances, although ensemble data shows a relatively weak signal for significant combined shear/CAPE. This will of course bear watching as we get closer.

As we head into the beginning of next week we will see an upper ridge building over the area, with hotter and drier conditions developing over our area. Highs will be well into the 90s for most of the area by Monday, and mid/upper 90s for Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Cloud cover this afternoon has lifted to VFR, but some scattered clouds remain under 3 kft. Expect that VFR conditions will prevail but the scattered cloud could briefly go broken in the next few hours. Clouds are expected to clear around sunset, and the clearing may lead to fog development. TRI is the most likely spot to fog, so MVFR vis will be mentioned with an IFR TEMPO. Cannot rule out fog at TYS and CHA, but chances are lower there.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 84 66 88 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 83 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 58 83 62 87 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 80 58 86 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.