textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 855 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record highs are possible.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late this afternoon into this evening. Another round of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms possible early Friday morning. Isolated storms could produce strong and gusty winds and small hail.

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm late Saturday and especially Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again next week. Low afternoon relative humidity early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 855 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Adjusted PoPs through 2 AM to account for both the line of showers/storms moving through now, and to bump up western portions of East Tennessee in acknowledgement of the MCS pushing through Middle TN. Rather low confidence on the MCS's evolution over the next 2-3 hours, CAMs have been consistently dissipating the cluster before reaching East Tennessee, but several of the members weren't showing this stout of a current look. As far as the current radar depiction in Middle TN, it is kicking out a healthy outflow boundary along the southern half of the cluster, which may spark some showers and storms as it moves through relatively pristine atmosphere. The northern part will encounter rain cooled air in the northern Plateau and I would expect weakening by then. Any rain that can reach East Tennessee will be welcome.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

SPC meso analysis shows a well mixed boundary layer this afternoon producing breezy conditions. Instability is increasing especially over the Plateau with MLCAPEs of 500-100. DCAPEs of 800-900 with dry mid-level and sub-cloud layers will likely produce strong and gusty winds with the storms. There is a marginal risk of severe storms.

A weak wave over west TN/AR/MO will approach the region by early Friday morning. Currently strong convection has developed with this feature. Some of the CAM models show isolate to widely scattered storms moving into the area late tonight. Due to the colder air aloft with the upper trough, mid-level lapse rates steepen. There is a low end confidence of isolated storms producing hail up to one- half inch. Greatest potential north of Interstate 40.

After this wave moves east early Friday, a return to dry and unseasonably warm conditions tomorrow with low afternoon relative humidity.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

For Saturday (especially late) into Saturday night, a strong upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes into the Tennessee valley. The jet dynamics with this system will enhance the fronto-genetic forcing along this incoming cold front producing widespread showers and possible a thunderstorm. Instability ahead of this system is quite limited over the Tennessee valley. Ensemble analysis shows QPF of 0.25 to 0.40 inch with this system. Much needed rainfall but still will not too much for our ongoing drought conditions.

For much of next week, dry conditions return with a dry surface ridge producing low afternoon humidities into the 20s and 30s. Cooler temperatures for early week but quickly moderate to above normal temperatures by mid-week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A shower or perhaps thunderstorm will be around mainly TRI and TYS early, so will include vicinity and Prob30 groups both sites for the convection. If significant rain occurs at either TYS or TRI some vsby restriction in fog will be possible late tonight, although right now the probability looks too low include. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will quickly diminish early, then will be generally be light overnight. Winds will become southwest to west less than 10 kts during the day Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 89 63 88 / 20 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 85 60 86 / 60 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 58 85 59 86 / 50 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 81 55 84 / 80 0 0 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.