textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather through the weekend, especially Thursday through Saturday. Near record temperatures near Chattanooga.

- Light rain showers are expected Christmas Day through Friday night mainly north of I-40. Limited rainfall totals expected.

- The best chance for widespread rain will be Sunday night with a cold front moving through the region.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians early next week. Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday night. Light snow and snow flurries also possible across the mountains on Monday behind the cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Upper-level ridging will produce continued unseasonable warmth across the region. A series of upper- level shortwaves within the NW flow aloft will produce light rain showers off and on through Friday night. The highest probability of rain will be north of Interstate 40 with lower probabilities for accumulating precipitation further south near Chattanooga. Through Saturday morning, there is an 80+ percent chance of everyone seeing at least 0.01 inch of rainfall, but these NBM probabilities drop significant when looking at probabilities of greater than 0.25 inch (Chattanooga at 15%, Knoxville at 40%, and Tri-Cities at 70%). With the ridging centered across the Lower Mississippi Valley and greatest upper-level heights across our southern counties, Chattanooga will have the highest chance of meeting or exceeding record high temperatures through Saturday.

A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday as a surface cold front moves southeastward across our region on Sunday night. Strong frontal forcing and favorable synoptic support for ascent, mainly across our northern counties, will result in likely rainfall area-wide on Sunday night into Monday morning. This cold front will move across the region with an Arctic airmass in its wake. Much colder air will settle across the region through the middle part of next week. With some northeast flow, light orographic snowfall will be possible across the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains, mainly above 3000 ft, with snow flurries continuing through Monday night across the mountains. The valley and lower elevations are not expected to see any impacts with minor impacts possible to roads across the highest elevations of the mountains.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through much of the night. Increasing isentropic lift and a back door front approaching southwest Virginia during the afternoon Christmas Day will increase chances of showers especially for TRI late tonight and Thursday. Flight conditions will also become MVFR at TRI and TYS tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 73 56 73 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 68 58 70 / 20 30 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 56 68 57 68 / 20 20 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 64 56 65 / 60 60 60 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.