textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 702 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Showers and storms will be isolated this afternoon and evening mainly south of I-40 and in the Upper Cumberland Plateau.

- More widespread showers and storms are expected Friday through the weekend. A few stronger storms and isolated flooding are possible.

- Temperatures will be generally near normal through the period with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Light and isolated showers have dissipated and the overnight period will be quiet. In the upper levels, a ridge extends from the Carolinas to the lower Midwest. At the surface, a stationary boundary is over northern MS/AL and central GA. Showers and storms will be isolated again this afternoon and evening. CAMs and the NBM agree that the best chance for a shower or storm will be south of I- 40 and the Upper Cumberland Plateau. Remnants of the lingering surface boundary or a surface trough may be over the Tennessee Valley but this feature will be weak. Severe and flooding potential are very low today but never zero this time of year.

The pattern will change for this weekend. The ridge starts to break down Friday with afternoon and evening showers and storms becoming more scattered perhaps even numerous, especially south of I-40. By Saturday, a trough digs into the Eastern U.S., although weak this far south. This pattern continues on Sunday. At the surface, a boundary may move into the Ohio Valley by Sunday, weakening as it moves into the Tennessee Valley. Multiple rounds of showers and storms can be expected Saturday and Sunday as minor waves rotate through the pattern. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with good instability present. Fri, Sat and Sun will all have good deep layer moisture with PWATs increasing to around 2 inches Sat and Sun. Some flooding issues may arise by Sat or Sun.

Shower and storm activity will be more isolated Mon, Tues, Wed behind a weak cold front. Temps will be near normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Fog and/or low cloud development late in the period is possible, but the probability of occurrence right now looks too low to warrant inclusion in the TAFs. Will go with a mainly VFR forecast all sites for the period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be around this afternoon CHA and possibly TYS, and the highest chance of impacts at the terminal looks to be at CHA so will include a prob30 thunder group there.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 74 91 73 / 30 10 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 75 90 74 / 20 30 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 90 74 90 73 / 20 20 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 71 93 71 / 0 10 30 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.