textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 749 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Breezy conditions today. Wind gusts over the higher terrain could gust up to around 40 mph.

- Isolated strong to severe storms and isolated flooding possible later today through early tonight.

- Drier weather returns later tomorrow through Saturday before more rain chances Sunday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Our area will become sandwiched between remnants from Tropical Storm Arthur to the south and a trailing cold front from the north. A line of showers and storms is about to enter Kentucky at this time of the morning. Around sunrise or just after, the first sign of the line will be knocking on our southwest VA counties' doors. Increasing low level flow out of the southwest is creating gusty conditions at times. Cove Mountain, so far, has gusted into the upper 40s mph. So, I suspect other higher terrain in the Smokies and from the northern plateau into southwest VA may gust up to around 40 mph early this morning. The LLJ is currently around 35 KT according to SPC meso, will hold steady into the day today.

Like most recent events this past month, today will be impacted by limited shear. The better forcing and dynamics are to the north, extending into VA up into the northeast, with the low pressure center scooting off from Ontario into Quebec. Moisture transport, aided by tropical remnants, forcing along the front, and CAPE exceeding 1000 J/Kg will support shower and storm development today and into early tomorrow. A slight risk for severe weather slices our southwest VA counties, while a marginal risk covers the rest of the CWA. We are only expecting damaging wind gusts with any storm that may become severe. With PWATs increasing to near 2 inches, flash flooding potential will be present. The WPC excessive rainfall outlook over much of the forecast area depicts a low risk of flash flooding.

The remnants of Arthur will skirt just south of us, exiting into the Carolinas late tonight. What's left of the front somewhat being hung up over our northern areas, will follow with precipitation ending from northwest to southeast. Orographically induced showers may persist over the Southern Appalachians into the early morning hours tomorrow, while the rest of the area dries out. Lower humidity and slightly lower high temperatures can be expected tomorrow afternoon. High pressure building in from the Midwest will filter in with northwesterly flow into Saturday. Even lower humidity values Saturday even though temperatures rebound some.

High pressure will lose its influence over the area Sunday and into next week as another frontal system develops under a shortwave barreling in from the Midwest region. A second shortwave possibly following it. A front forecast to arc along the Gulf coast towards the middle of next week, will keep the unsettled weather around. High temperatures could be impacted next week under troughiness and daily chances of precipitation.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 749 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Messy TAF period with scattered showers on radar now. Off and on showers should be expected for the bulk of the TAF period, though likely ending by 06z tonight, to be followed by MVFR or IFR CIGs to end the period. Gusty winds to continue during the day, before subsiding tonight. A few TS at times. Low confidence on exact coverage, intensity, and impacts from the scattered RA and TS today and early tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 70 86 65 / 80 60 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 69 85 62 / 70 60 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 68 85 61 / 80 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 66 82 57 / 80 90 30 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.