textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

-Quick round of snow for parts of southwest VA on Sunday??

- Wind Advisory remains in effect through Saturday across the east TN mountains for gusty northwest winds.

- Warmer temperatures are expected next week, with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal Monday through Wednesday.

-Precipitation chances return second half of the week with rain being the predominant precipitation type.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Currently a sunny but chilly afternoon with temperatures hovering around freezing for many, but breezy winds out of the north/northwest bringing the wind chill values down several degrees. Strongest winds remain in the mountains of eastern Tennessee with sustained winds of around 20-25 with higher gusts.

Sunday has a bit of an interesting/tricky weather feature that may impact our region. A weak frontogenetically forced snow band (lake effect snow?) looks like it will develop and travel southeast out of the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Most models are depicting at least some snow moving southeast out of the lake towards southwest Virginia, but vary greatly with the extent of the snow, and how much might occur. One big wrinkle with this is how are the models handling the ice cover for southern Lake Michigan... Current NOAA CoastWatch estimates a decent extent of the ice on the southern tip of the lake... Having greater than 50% ice coverage even north of Chicago. This ice would likely inhibit how much moisture is put into the atmosphere for this snow band to tap into. In addition the models have poorly handled dew points recently, with most running several degrees higher than what actually occurs. If this drier trend continues it would likely eat into snowfall accumulations as the lower levels have to saturate before snow really starts to accumulate. Will want to keep an eye on this little feature as it could produce a quick dusting to inch of snow for some parts of southwest Virginia Sunday morning. Will not be issuing any Winter Weather headlines at this time as most high resolution guidance keeps the 1" snowfall totals just north of our CWA. Hopefully the sun is able to poke it's head back out for the afternoon to help melt off some of the snow that could fall in the morning.

For the majority of people we'll be entering a fairly quiet period for the rest of the weekend and early next week as we sit on the eastern side of a ridge building across the Gulf, which will help drive temperatures warmer for the first half of the week, even though a few disturbances move across the region bringing increased cloud coverage Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday will be our warmest day with slowly increasing clouds throughout the day, but places in southeast Tennessee could touch the 70 degree mark briefly, especially if the clouds hold back a few hours.

Middle of the week will see a front move south through the region bringing with it our next chance of precipitation. Timing of the front is still a bit up in the air with models starting to come in line with a late Tuesday night into Wednesday FROPA.

Another system looks to move through on the heels of the mid week front as a slow moving trough makes it's way through the eastern half of the United States. This will bring anther couple of days of precipitation chances for the back half of the week. As of right now this system looks to be fairly mild with regards to impacts as temperatures will remain closer to seasonal normals and above freezing for most everywhere outside of the highest elevations even overnight. Will maintain low end precipitation chances for several days for the end of the week, but expect to be able to trim down the duration of PoPs as models come into better agreement with timing of the late week system.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions and decreasing winds are expected overnight with limited cloud cover generally above 10,000 feet. After sunrise on Sunday, there are chances for light snow around TRI with a PROB30 included. Currently, intensity is likely to remain light enough for minimal impact. Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected through the day on Sunday with clouds mainly 5,000 to 10,000 feet or higher.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 52 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 21 44 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 21 44 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 13 35 21 50 / 20 30 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.