textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Multiple chances for rain to end the week and into the weekend with an incoming front.

- Colder, sub-freezing temperatures return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow is over the region and a closed low will move through the Great Lakes Friday. At the surface, high pressure over the Southeast is retreating as a low moves out of the Rockies and into the Midwest Thursday morning. Rain showers have developed in the northern half of the region over the last couple of hours. Shower activity will continue through Thursday morning as a vort max moves through the region. Thunder potential is low with dew points remaining below 60 degrees in the northern half of the region where the strongest forcing will be. By Thursday evening, the surface low will be near IA/IL/MO with a warm front over IN/OH and a cold front along the Mississippi River. Rain chances will be low Thursday afternoon/early evening. The best chance of rain will be Thursday night into Friday morning as the cold front moves through. The parent low will be over the Great Lakes and vertically stacked with the upper low by the time the cold front moves through Friday morning. Thunder potential is low but a few rumbles will be possible with dew points briefly reaching 60 degrees in most of the Tennessee Valley.

Strong winds will be likely areawide from Thursday afternoon to at least Friday morning with gusts up to 30 mph likely at times. Winds will be even higher in the mountains and foothills Thursday evening through Friday morning as 850 mb winds increase to 45 knots. Gusts up to 50 or 55 mph will be possible in wind prone spots. A Wind Advisory will be issued soon for the mountains and foothills.

Warm temperatures will continue through Saturday with highs mainly in the 60s. Thursday will be the warmest day with highs getting into the 70s in the Tennessee Valley.

On Saturday night, another system is likely to bring rain. This one may have better upper level support. Drying out Sunday in most locations as a trough moves through. There is a chance for some light snow accumulations in the higher elevations "horseshoe" on the backside of the system on Sunday/Sunday night but accumulations look very low at this time, less than one inch. No accumulation is expected in the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will be much colder Sunday, Monday, Tuesday with highs mainly in the 40s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Fog has developed at TRI with LIFR remaining likely for the next couple of hours. CHA and TYS will also still see continued showers and MVFR conditions with showers lingering into the afternoon at TRI. CHA and TYS are expected to return back to VFR during the afternoon with TRI likely remaining MVFR through much of the day. Heading into tonight, LLWS will become a focus as winds 2,000 feet AGL and above increase to 40 kts or more. At this time, LLWS was only added into TRI as breezy southwesterly surface winds are expected at the other two sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 60 73 49 / 30 80 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 59 69 46 / 60 90 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 72 58 68 45 / 50 80 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 56 66 41 / 70 80 30 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.