textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 735 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- A system will move through the southeast bringing rain chances to southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina Friday night and Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend, with a warming trend early next week.

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The upper level pattern has become quasi-zonal with a trough flattening the ridge which previously brought above normal temperatures to the region. Near to slightly below normal temps and dry conditions will continue today and through most of tomorrow.

A shortwave will dive through the Ozarks and into the Gulf States Friday night into Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis will take place beneath the strongest upper divergence along the Gulf and Carolina coastlines, bringing a return of precipitation chances to our south and eastern areas. If you can imagine an invisible line drawn from Chattanooga to Bristol, the greatest chances for precipitation will generally be along and south/east of said line. Probability for precip 0.5" or greater is around 30-50% in SW NC and along the spine of the Appalachians. Elsewhere, probabilities are generally 25% or less.

The enhanced troughing and H5 heights 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal will also translate to our coolest temperatures Saturday into Sunday morning. With clouds expected to quickly clear out overnight Saturday, Sunday morning temperatures look to be supportive of frost for portions of northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina.

Very patchy chances for frost may linger in high elevations Monday morning as well, however, minor H5 height rises and a shift to more southeasterly flow in the low-levels will promote a warming trend back into the mid 70s early next week. Latest guidance trends have been towards a mostly dry Monday and Tuesday as a front stalls in the Ohio Valley.

A stronger shortwave is expected to reinforce the Great Lakes region troughing mid-week, with better chances of showers and storms for the whole area. Latest NBM probabilities for rain accums greater than 0.5" is around 50-60%. Will also be worth keeping an eye on this system for strong/severe chances, but model discrepancies leave for plenty of uncertainty this far out.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

High clouds will continue through this TAF cycle and may be more scattered at times especially at TRI. Low rain chances may start to creep into CHA at the very end of this TAF period. Light winds will be a bit more westerly tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 73 51 66 / 0 10 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 71 48 64 / 0 10 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 46 72 48 64 / 0 10 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 69 46 61 / 0 10 30 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.