textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

- After morning light snow in southwest Virginia, clearing and seasonal temperatures are expected. - A weak system will bring rain to the region Friday into Saturday, with greatest rain totals near 1 inch in southern portions of the area.

- Another warming trend is expected into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Currently, the region is in a northwesterly flow pattern with troughing well off to the northeast and ridging ejecting out of the Rockies. A 110 to 120 kt jet streak is approaching from the west with a plume of moisture progressing from the Great Lakes. This pattern has continued chances for flurries/light snow through the morning in southwest Virginia, which is already being observed to our north. This moisture will gradually lift out of the area on New Year's Day, leading to clearing and a continuation of the recent warming trend. By Friday, troughing will lift even further way from the area with ridging to our west expanding and increasing height rises. Increasing warming will occur with temperatures rising above normal. A weak system will also eject out of the southern Plains and track just to our south. This will keep the better focus for rain in southern portions of the area Friday into Saturday, which does need rainfall as D2/Severe Drought has been declared for some.

By Sunday, this system will be well to the east of our area with broad ridging and high pressure keeping the region dry. CAA behind this system will keep temperatures moderated close to normal. By early next week, however, even more notable height rises are expected, which will push temperatures above normal. By Wednesday, another system is expected to track far to our north with its associated front approaching the region. This will bring another chance for rain with even milder temperatures ahead of the front.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Lower clouds will push into TRI by late tonight/early Thu, with cigs expected to dip to MVFR for several hours. The MVFR cigs may at least briefly affect TYS as well, but the probability looks to be below 30% at this time and just a scattered layer will be included there. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Winds will generally be less than 10kts from the west and southwest. Winds at 2kft will increase late in the period, and it looks borderline for LLWS mainly TRI. Will not include LLWS yet, but this will bear watching as we get closer.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 37 58 47 / 0 0 30 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 36 56 44 / 0 0 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 51 34 54 42 / 0 0 10 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 30 51 40 / 0 0 0 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.