textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Much warmer weather this week.

- Chances for additional moderate rainfall return Wednesday night and onwards into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Low confidence in fog development this morning but some patchy fog cannot be ruled out in valley areas. In the upper levels, a ridge is centered over the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is over the Southeast. Dry weather is expected Tuesday with increasing clouds and very low rain chances moving into the region by Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday, the ridge breaks down with flow becoming nearly zonal. At the surface, a low kicks out of the Rockies moving into the Midwest by Thursday. Rain chances start to increase Wednesday night and Thursday morning as a warm or stationary front may be lingering across or near the region. The best chance of rain will be Thursday night or Friday morning as a cold front moves through. The parent low will be over the Great Lakes. Thunder potential is low but a few rumbles cannot be ruled out.

Some stronger winds will be possible in the mountains and foothills Wednesday and again Thursday/Friday as 850 mb winds increase but it looks like gusts will likely remain below advisory criteria. Temperatures will be much warmer this week with highs mainly in the 60s. Thursday will be the warmest day with highs getting into the 70s for most of the Tennessee Valley.

On Saturday, another system is likely to bring rain. This one may have better upper level support. Should be drying out by Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be much colder Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 40s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Overall, quiet aviation conditions are expected. There is a low- end chance for fog development through early morning, but VFR was maintained due to limited model consensus. Also, some clouds around 3,000 feet AGL will move over Chattanooga especially through the day. Currently, it seems like only SCT coverage but will have to watch for MVFR. Also, southerly to southwesterly winds will increase by the afternoon, especially at CHA and TYS where gusts to 20 kts are possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 54 68 58 / 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 54 65 58 / 0 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 66 54 64 57 / 0 0 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 44 62 53 / 0 0 10 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.