textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 651 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Showers and storms most likely remain confined to higher terrain today. Hot and humid conditions can be expected.

- Potentially strong cold front arrives tomorrow during the afternoon and evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and hail the main concerns.

- Unsettled weather continues into next week, with multiple rounds of rainfall possible. Cooler temperatures to start the new work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A hot and yucky summer day can be expected later today under sharp ridging punching in overhead and W-SW flow continually bringing in the increased water vapor. Heat indices in the valley could range from the mid to upper 90s, with possible 100 degrees sneaking in somewhere. It'll be a dry day for most, with the potential for any shower and storm activity to be confined to the Southern Appalachians, southwest NC, and into southwest VA. Your typical summer time forcing near/in mountainous terrain.

Tomorrow will be another sticky and hot day, however, temperatures may end up a degree or more "cooler" with cloud cover and precipitation timing out around the time of peak heating. At the time of this discussion, the Day 3 Convective Outlook from SPC extends MRGL to SLGT into our area from the Virginias coinciding with a cold front expected to arrive much earlier now than previously mentioned. 24 hours ago and beyond, the front appeared to arrive during the overnight hours into early Saturday, but it may just cross the region during the "best" time for strongest thunderstorm potential. One parameter for all of the ingredients needed for severe weather is lacking though. Moisture is of course there, the cold front is your forcing, and instability will be up there with CAPE values in the 2000 to 3000+ J/Kg range. Shear, however, is the factor that is very low. So, a high CAPE low shear type set-up. The potential for strongest severe will be from about the Mid-Atlantic up into the northeast US. Right now, damaging wind gusts and hail are the main concerns. Mid-level lapse rates, according to some 00z runs, will be in the neighborhood of 6.5 to just under 7 C/Km.

Things clear the area late Friday into early Saturday. Highs will fall below 90 degrees, but the nasty dew points will at least be at bay for one day, with dew points in the 60s and even 50s for northeastern parts of the CWA. On the temperature side of things, highs will just continue to fall until the end of the forecast period. Monday through Wednesday highs could only max out to the upper 70s to low 80s! Unfortunately, following the cold front, we will not dry out like you'd typically expect. Moisture sets back up arcing along a boundary, potentially bringing heavy rains some place early next week. The Day 5 ERO from WPC issued yesterday afternoon, introduced a MRGL threat for flash flooding for parts of our area. Details are uncertain to what may occur, but grand total forecast QPF from Sunday until Wednesday, could bring multiple inches of rain with highest possible amounts south of about I-40 and Knoxville. .

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 651 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Some lower clouds are in place over TRI, but VFR is expected to continue at the site, as well as the other two. Cloud cover will be more limited throughout the day. Winds will be generally from the southwest to the west at 10 kts or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 91 71 / 10 0 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 73 91 69 / 0 0 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 90 66 / 0 0 80 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 70 90 65 / 20 10 80 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.