textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 738 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Showers and storms likely Saturday through Sunday, with some strong to severe storms possible. Some flooding issues are also possible if training occurs.

- Hot temperatures are likely next week. Heat indices may climb above 100 degrees in the Tennessee Valley especially by mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough will be over the Central and Eastern U.S. today. At the surface, a low will be over the Northeast today with a stationary boundary well to our north over the Midwest and Ohio Valley, connecting to a low over the Rockies. Low level moisture will start to rebound today as southerly flow increases. With forcing well to the north, showers will be isolated for most locations today. Showers and storms will be more scattered near the East Tennessee mountains and adjacent foothills with terrain forcing.

By Saturday, a ridge will build into the Central U.S. and a trough will remain over the Eastern U.S. At the surface, the boundary to the north starts to sag southward slowly. With the boundary moving closer and a series of minor waves moving through the pattern, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and evening. The region is in a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday and that seems appropriate. Instability will be increasing with dew points getting back into the 70s by Saturday. CAPE will be 1000 to 2000 J/kg. If storms are able to organize, gusty winds will be the primary threat.

This slow moving front will continue to slowly sag southward bringing nocturnal rain and storms Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Flooding issues may be an issue mainly Saturday evening and overnight if training occurs along the slow moving boundary. Activity will taper off Sunday afternoon or evening as the now weak front moves through. Also, a strong ridge will be building into the region from the Southeast up to the Great Lakes Sunday afternoon/evening. Monday through Thursday will be hot and mostly dry as a strong ridge stays anchored over the Eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 90s in the Tennessee Valley. Wednesday and Thursday will be even hotter with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index near 100 will be possible in the Southern and Central Tennessee Valley Monday and Tuesday. Heat index will be climbing into the 100 to 105 range on Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 738 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR can generally be expected through the TAF period. Increasing mid and high clouds later in the day today. SWly winds develop later this morning and afternoon. Outside chance of a shower/storm in the afternoon at all terminals. And after sunset for TYS and TRI. Low confidence on chance of TS, so added a PROB30 with SHRA for now.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 74 90 73 / 20 20 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 73 87 71 / 10 40 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 89 72 87 71 / 20 40 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 68 84 68 / 20 50 90 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.