textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 643 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 - Isolated to scattered storms expected this afternoon. The greatest chance will be along the eastern mountains.

- Most locations will be dry for the weekend with return of hot and humid conditions early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Regional radar mosaic reveals a few isolated storms still present, but coverage and intensity is on a downward trend. For the remainder of the night, we should see clearing skies a few lingering high clouds. There will likely be another round of patchy dense fog development as skies clear and winds turn light and variable. The worst of it is expected near area-waterways. Winds turn more northerly after daybreak with mostly sunny skies to start the day. Instability and moisture will be sufficient to support another day of isolated to scattered thunderstorm threat in the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show 2000+ J/KG of MLCAPE and 7 C/km lapse rates that would support an isolated wind threat, but the threat of severe weather is low overall. Guidance suggests these storms will likely be tied to the mountains and terrain. Highs will be in the 80s and lower 90s with heat and humidity set to ramp up over the weekend.

Saturday's forecast will feature an inverted trough axis across the eastern half of TN. This should lead to diurnally driven storms along the eastern TN mountains and SW NC yet again. Most of us will remain dry. A pattern shift will be set in motion over the weekend. The upper level ridge over the SW CONUS will shift east across the centering over the SE CONUS by early next week. This places us in close proximity to the center of the ridge, ushering in mid-Summer like temperatures and humidity. Precipitation chances will be lower with the combination of rising heights and subsidence under the ridge axis. The NBM PoPs reflect this with suppressed values through mid-week. Sunday through the middle of next will will feature similar weather each day. Our high temperatures will warm into the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Surface dew points in the low to mid 70s will support heat indices in the 100 to 105 range across the Valley. Afternoon storms cannot be ruled out with higher PWAT values in place. I suspect a scenario similar to early-mid August will play out with diurnal isolated storms that dissipate by sunset each day. Looking ahead, there really isn't a signal for a cooler-than-normal stretch as the synoptic pattern kind of cycles as the upper level ridges moves from the SW US to the SE US every ~10 days or so.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Adjustments to visibility with the 12Z TAFs based on developing low level clouds and light and variable wind that maintained overnight. Ultimately left just TRI with VFR br for the next two hours. Otherwise, a quiet weather day with northerly winds less than 10kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 69 93 72 / 10 0 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 67 91 69 / 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 90 69 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 63 87 64 / 10 0 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.