textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 136 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 - Dry conditions with comfortable afternoon humidity levels through Tuesday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday and especially Thursday.

- Drier for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

An upper level trough will be weakening but will remain over the eastern CONUS as surface high pressure to our north and northwest drifts slowly east through Tuesday. This will provide us with a dry days and comfortably low relative humidity values this afternoon and again Tuesday. Some patchy fog may develop again in the late night hours tonight mainly near rivers and lakes.

By mid week the surface high will be off to our east and northeast, allowing low level flow to become more southwesterly and moisture to increase. Short wave energy may have enough moisture and instability to work with for a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, especially south and mountains. By Thursday into Thursday night, models show additioanl short wave energy aloft and a weak cold front pushing into our area. This will likely result in the period with the highest coverage of showers and storms. The details such as timing of the front/main forcing will matter and are still uncertain, so we will have to wait until we get closer to see about the potential for any strong to severe storms. Right now the ensemble data joint probabilities for at least 500 J/kg of CAPE and > 30kt bulk shear are minimal at best and the chance for organized severe storms looks quite low.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will build in by the weekend, with most areas expected to be dry. The NBM just has some low chances for afternoon showers and storms mainly in the mountains both Saturday and Sunday. With the ridging building in we will also see temperatures trending back above normal during the weekend into Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The primary aviation weather concern is the potential for fog development late tonight especially TRI. Right now the probability of fog impacts at the terminal looks too low to include as prevailing, but will include a few hours of tempo MVFR vsby in fog around sunrise at TRI. Otherwise, a VFR forecast for the period all sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 62 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.