textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 138 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

- Another day of showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the evening with isolated to widely scattered coverage.

- Storm chances will not go away over the next several days, but the trend is to see longer and longer periods of dry weather and smaller windows of storms as we head into the back half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Currently storms already present across much of the southern Appalachians under clearer skies early this afternoon. This will help fuel the continued diurnally driven shower and thunderstorms we've experienced for numerous days now. Expect these storms to continue through the rest of the afternoon and evening and dissipate before midnight. We could see a few strong storms later this afternoon across northeast TN and southwest VA closer to better synoptic forcing and a surface boundary, but the best atmospheric dynamics looks to stay off to our northeast. Can't rule out some rogue storms lingering past midnight across southwest VA as well. Forecast soundings indicate a fairly unimpressive atmosphere, but a quick burst of wind is possible in the strongest storms this afternoon. The orientation of these storms means they'll be generally moving southwest to northeast and that could cause some very localized training of storms... So we could see some additional isolated flooding, especially in areas that received multiple rounds of heavy rain over the past several days.

Continuing tomorrow we'll actually have a decent chance to see suppressed thunderstorm activity as the front to our north sags further south. Depending on how far south this boundary makes it we'll likely keep storm activity to the south of it. Locations north of I-40 have the best chance at staying rain free based on current CAM runs. Saturday might see a surge back north of the storm activity, but confidence is low at this point due to minor changes in the atmosphere and lingering outflow boundaries likely to influence the final location of the boundary.

Sunday into next week could bring some drying out to the region as we sit on the southwest side of a deep trough/low meandering through the northern portion of the United States. This slow moving system means we'll be under generally drier northwesterly flow through much of the atmosphere. Surface high off the Atlantic coast could still draw up some low level moisture, but this pattern would typically indicate less chances for rain over the end of the weekend and into next week. In addition temperatures ever so slightly cool by a couple of degrees for the first half of next week under this system.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Scattered showers across the region will continue for the rest of the evening, eventually dissipating after sunset. Multiple rounds can be expected at each TAF site briefly bringing conditions down to IFR or lower. Depending on how much rain occurs at an airport we could see fog develop overnight, but low confidence at this time until we see where rain occurs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 84 66 80 / 30 50 30 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 82 63 81 / 50 70 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 64 82 62 80 / 40 40 10 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 81 57 82 / 70 70 0 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.