textproduct: Morristown
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 704 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
- Dry weather expected for the coming week ahead.
- Temperatures to remain above normal with a gradual warming trend each day.
- Tropical development is expected over the Gulf which may impact the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
A surface ridge of high pressure and dry northwest flow over the southern Appalachians is pulling drier air into the region. Due to clear sky and calm winds, steam fog off area lakes and streams are expected so patchy areas of fog is expected near the waterways. some of the fog will be locally dense.
The surface ridge will move east of the area for Tuesday allowing moisture to pull back into the Tennessee valley along with a weak inverted trough. Instability remains quite limited with PWs of only 0.7 to 0.9 so convection is not anticipated.
Dry northwest flow aloft will remain through Wednesday with a dry frontal boundary moving the area late Thursday. Reinforcing dry air is expected for Friday with surface ridging across the southern Appalachians. PWs for Friday will drop to 0.6 at TYS.
A lot question marks for this weekend. Tropical system has a 70 percent chance of developing into a depression. Where this system eventually turns north or northeastward is the uncertainty. Some of the deterministic and ensemble models pull moisture back into the Tennessee and southern Appalachians and early next week.
There is a great deal of uncertainty in the development and path of the expected tropical depression over the Gulf of America. Depending on the exact path, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible this weekend.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through this period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
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