textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 252 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Mostly dry weather continues today, then chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast for Friday into the weekend.

- Hot temperatures are likely next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Patchy fog is likely mainly near major rivers and lakes late tonight, although it looks like it will be a bit spottier than last night.

We will see quasi-zonal flow aloft Thursday into the first part of the weekend, and there will be multiple short waves moving through the flow with the potential to bring some showers and storms at times. There is general agreement in the models on this overall pattern, but the details of these short waves is still very much in flux.

Thursday will be mainly dry as some weak short wave energy moves across but has little moisture to work with. Friday and Saturday look to have higher chances for showers and storms although the significant model disagreement and run to run inconsistencies lead to low confidence for the timing and coverage of convection as well as the potential for any strong to severe storms. Despite the big swings and disagreements in the deterministic models, ensemble data continues to be more consistent in showing a relatively weak signal for significant combined shear/CAPE and severe storm potential that looks fairly low overall. The shear and forcing do look a bit better north than south, leading to the likelihood that northern sections will have higher rain chances and more potential for a few strong/severe storms than southern sections both days. Damaging winds look to be the main threat for any stronger storms. This will continue to bear watching as we get closer.

Models short wave energy clipping at least northern areas Sunday with additional showers and storms as an upper ridge begins to build over the area. This upper ridge will amplify over the region bringing drier and very hot conditions for Monday through Wednesday, and likely beyond. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will likely rise well into the 90s in most valley locations, with afternoon heat index values climbing to near or above 100 at times.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Predominant VFR with light winds and SCT clouds at times for the period. Brief fog may result in MVFR conditions at TRI early this morning, however, high clouds streaming aloft and an afternoon of drying out should prevent fog from being as intense or persistent as the previous morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 70 90 73 / 10 10 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 68 90 72 / 10 0 30 30 Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 89 71 / 10 0 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 64 90 68 / 10 0 30 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.