textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Showers and storms will move through the area again today, some may be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. - Drier and not quite as hot mid week, then chances for showers and storms increase again Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Currently overnight convection has moved through northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia, but the overall synoptic pattern remains fairly stagnant for Monday with another hot day expected.

A front will try and move into the region on Monday being aided by a short wave in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Forecast soundings continue to show an atmosphere that may be capable of organized convection on Monday with plenty of instability to see rapid storm growth with the expected hot temperatures. With a decent dry layer in the mid levels helping to lead to DCAPEs eclipsing the 1,000 J/kg mark the primary threat looks to be microbursts from these rapidly growing thunderstorms. PWAT values climb back up to near the 2" mark which means these storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours. Cannot completely rule out a brief isolated tornado with some weak low level shear, but it really looks like straight line winds and flash flooding is the primary weather threats Monday afternoon and evening.

The Heat Advisory will remain in place for Monday. It's possible that with mid level mixing due to the hot temperatures we bring down lower dew point values like what occurred on Sunday, but it's still going to be near triple digit ambient temperatures, so will continue with the Advisory.

We'll cool down a bit on Tuesday (but it will still be hot for much of the work week) with more notably cooler temperatures holding off until the weekend. It won't feel like fall, but we'll see much more widespread 80's instead of 90's late this week and into the weekend. By Thursday into the weekend, heights fall over the region as the upper level eastern US trough deepens. Chances for showers and storms will increase again.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A drier night at the surface at this time with only a few sites showing 100% humidity. TRI may actually remain VFR through the morning. SW-Wly winds will develop later today with near 10KT possible at TYS and TRI. PRO30 for showers and storms introduced as early as 19Z at the terminals to depict the chance between those 6 hours due to a weak cold front. There's uncertainty as to storm severity and coverage because of drier air currently in place.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 99 75 94 69 / 50 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 73 90 67 / 60 50 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 95 72 90 67 / 60 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 69 85 64 / 80 70 20 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn- Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe- Rhea-Roane-Sequatchie-West Polk.

VA...NONE.