textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect for most of the East TN mountains and portions of southwest VA for two separate rounds of snow.

- Quick bout of light snow this morning, then a break late morning and afternoon. Northwest flow snowfall this evening through Monday evening. Light to moderate accumulations expected in the East TN Mountains and southwest Virginia, with potential for low elevation flurries at times.

- Gusty winds through Monday. Gusts around 30 mph expected for valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in highest peaks of the mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected tonight through Monday across the higher elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

- Drier with a gradual warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

A cold front is progressing across the forecast area this morning with light radar returns. Valley locations will be predominantly light rain through the early morning, but any lingering light precipitation in northeastern valley locations around daybreak could be falling as light snow or flurries for a brief period. Snow showers in higher elevations through the morning may bring a dusting to 2 inches of snow in the higher peaks of the East Tennessee mountains. Portions of southwest VA in the Winter Weather Advisory could see a dusting up to an inch.

That being said, latest RAP and NAM data suggest RH in the lowest portions of the DGZ to be insufficient for good dendrite production over the next 12 hours. This will help limit snowfall efficiency. Additionally, Mt LeConte and Newfound Gap COOP observations show about 5 or 6 days of high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s with afternoon sunshine to help warm the grounds. This could ultimately lead to melting of some initial snowfall as well. These two reasonings admittedly lead to lower confidence in the morning accumulations in that they may be over done.

After a brief drier period late morning and afternoon, a reinforcing shortwave translating through the base of the upper level trough will amplify deep nwly flow and increase moisture in the DGZ Sunday evening. A prolonged period of northwest flow snowfall will continue Sunday evening though Monday evening. This is the most likely time frame for snow accumulations to bring impacts. Overall event to snowfall amounts will generally be 1 to 4 inches between below 4kft, between 4 to 7 inches at and above 4kft. Isolated amounts greater than 7 inches will be possible at the highest peaks. For southwest VA, most likely totals are between 1 to 4 inches. Isolated totals between 3 to 5 inches at the highest peaks and ridges. Some valley locations in far NE TN and SW VA could see a dusting to a few tenths of an inch.

In addition to the snowfall, cold and breezy conditions are expected Sunday through Monday night. Most places will see wind gusts up to 30mph, with high elevations of the mountains seeing closer to 40mph. The cold ambient temperatures and strong winds will also promote single digit wind chills in southwest VA and the TN mtns, with the highest elevations of the mtns expected to see sub-zero wind chills.

Last of the NWFS will taper off late Monday and mostly dry conditions with a gradual warming trend are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The next chance of precipitation will be overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a upper trough digs into the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region. Dry and warm under the influence of high pressure for the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

CHA will likely remain VFR for the period. May be some brief MVFR cigs to start at TRI, but both TYS and TRI will likely be VFR for much of today. Tonight will likely see MVFR conditions again at TRI along with a few snow showers or flurries, and perhaps at TYS at least briefly. Will just include the MVFR cigs at TYS in a prob30 snow flurry group for now. Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 23 39 22 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 23 36 20 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 23 37 20 / 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 22 31 19 / 30 40 30 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST Monday night for Russell-Washington VA-Wise.