textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 657 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Hot weather to continue, but will be below advisory criteria. Continue taking standard heat precautions.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible today, storms are slightly more likely closer to the higher terrain, uncertain in the Tennessee Valley.

- Storm chances off and on through next week, not a total washout any particular day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Scattered and hard to predict summertime storm chances to continue. As our heat slowly edges back down to summer averages, we will continue to see a diurnal pulse to the convection. For today guidance has again less coverage than Friday, the HRRR has the skinniest CAPE curve yet in the last few days plus a weak inversion aloft indicating some subsidence. Still could see gusty winds if storms are able to get tall enough, but we'll see. Otherwise if the limited CAPE keeps things more isolated, we may see convective initiation along the terrain features first (mountains, Plateau) before any valley storms fire off outflow.

There could be a brief dry period midweek, but it depends in the strength of the digging shortwave the guidance depicts. GFS is the aggressor, showcasing a deep shortwave slowly moving over Tennessee on Tuesday. This would likely induce more widespread showers and storms. Euro is significantly weaker and thus drier. NBM hedged downwards in PoP probabilities recently, and I think for now that's reasonable.

Most storms over the next several days will still abide by the diurnal trend of afternoon/evening hours before faltering at night. Will need stronger forcing such as that shortwave to bring higher confidence or coverage outside of those hours. By Friday into next weekend, guidance depicts either a series of shortwaves or a longwave trough with embedded disturbances moving into the Great Lakes, and with our still hot and humid airmass, we will likely see another uptick in storm chances by then.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 657 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Morning haze from last night's fireworks will lift within the next hour or so. Otherwise, the next several hours will remain VFR with limited mid to high clouds and light winds from a westerly to northwesterly direction. Scattered storms are expected again during the afternoon into the evening hours with reductions possible at all 3 sites, so PROB30 were maintained.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 73 90 72 / 50 30 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 72 90 72 / 40 20 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 92 72 90 71 / 40 20 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 69 90 68 / 40 30 60 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.