textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 113 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

- Warm up for the weekend into early next week with highs around 10 degrees above normal.

- Dry airmass for Thursday and Friday will produce low afternoon relative humidity.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms arrive next Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Cold front has pushed through most of the region with drier airmass moving into the southern Appalachians.

For Thursday, dry northwest winds around the back side of a deep upper trough over the eastern seaboard will produce mostly sunny sky. Pressure gradients will remain fairly tight so northerly winds gusting up to 20 mph. The dry airmass will produce low afternoon relative humidity in the upper 20s and 30s.

For Friday, the upper flow will become more zonal with heights and temperatures moderating. Moderating temperatures and continued dry airmass with surface ridging over the area will produce low afternoon relative humidity in the 20s.

Ensemble cluster analysis are in agreement with a deepending upper trough across the Great Basin into the high plains. This trough will strengthen the upper ridge over the southeast United States into the Appalachians allowing for a warm up into the weekend and early next week. Continued surface ridging into across the southeast will keep Gulf moisture return limited. Mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions are anticipated for Saturday through Monday. Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal.

For Tuesday through Thursday, upper flow becomes more west southwest and surface ridge weakens allowing for greater moisture return. A series of short-waves/jet streaks will move along the upper flow to produce an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is low in coverage but expect greatest probability across the higher elevations.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 113 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions through the period, with winds around 10 kt today. CHA may have some gusts near 20 kt this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 47 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 45 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 71 44 78 54 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 41 74 51 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.