textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 127 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Dry weather with more moderate temps/humidity today through the beginning of the weekend.

- A wet pattern returns for the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Storms are well south of the area as they continue their push into central GA. As of the 03z SFC analysis, the cold front drapes across the southern portion of the forecast area through southwest NC, north of Chattanooga, and NW into Middle TN south Nashville.

Dew points will be considerably less, with lower 70s still possibly hanging on today from about I-40 and south. Much lower and more comfortable readings filter in later tonight and into tomorrow. Everywhere, with the exception of maybe a few isolated spots, will be below 90 for highs tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures for the most part will remain steady through the forecast period, with bumps up or down a few degrees between the 80 and 90 degree mark (the valley). What cannot be forgotten to mention is that we'll be dry under high pressure sinking SSE-SE through the remainder of the work- week. Unfortunately the much welcomed drier air will be replaced with moist air again, when dew points are forecast to shoot up into early Saturday. The low to mid 70s dews, especially across the valley, will persist into early next week.

A pattern change comes this weekend as we move into August, and appears will be a wet one. Persistent troughing over the NE will slowly rotate out just as a new shortwave begins to form over top the SW US ridge. It'll cross into the Dakota's Thursday and then make its dive SE through IA, IL, MO, and so on Friday. Around early or mid Saturday, it'll be knocking on our doorstep near western KY and TN. There are differences heading into the weekend if it will become a cut-off low, which could mean a near stationary system. Nevertheless, there could be days with periods of rain Saturday into early next week. The Day 5 ERO created by WPC yesterday afternoon, brings a part of the slight risk for flash flooding into southern parts of the area Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Storms have moved out of the region leaving increased chances to see fog, especially at KTRI. Low ceilings have moved in which may inhibit fog formation for a few hours, but at this point expect them to see IFR or lower conditions for much of the overnight hours. Once fog lifts in the morning expect VFR conditions the remainder of this TAF cycle.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 67 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 63 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 81 56 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.