textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1243 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Dry conditions will continue today and tomorrow with RH's falling well into the 20s and even upper teens.

- Chances for light rain arrive by Tuesday.

- Dry and very mild conditions are expected heading into Christmas Day with highs well into the 60s to low 70s in the south. Rain chances return again Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Currently, troughing is centered over the eastern U.S. with high pressure over Illinois. This setup has put the region in a northeasterly flow pattern with continued dry air, with persistent cloud cover likely to dissipate this afternoon. RH values have already fallen in some spots with many likely to see values deep into the 20s and even upper teens for some. On Monday, troughing will lift towards the northeast with high pressure shifting just to our east. The closer proximity will lead to a weaker MSLP gradient and lighter winds but dry and warmer conditions. Monday night into Tuesday, a weak system will progress into the Great Lakes with increasing moisture and southwesterly 850mb flow strengthening to 40 kts or greater. While the setup is not ideal for mountain waves, strong winds can be expected at high elevations. This will also bring a return of chances for light rain with temperatures near and below 850mb warm enough for no frozen precipitation. Rain chances will decrease by Christmas Eve as moisture lifts north and west of the region.

For Christmas Day, broad ridging and high pressure to our south and east will support dry and unseasonably mild conditions with most places rising well into the 60s. Another system will also develop to our northwest and track towards the Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow. Friday into the weekend, the front associated with this system will approach from the northwest, bringing another return of chances for light rain. Temperatures will remain warm enough for liquid precipitation but still lacking instability for convection.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the whole TAF period with northerly to northeasterly winds and decreasing cloud cover this afternoon. Tonight, winds will be light and variable with mostly clear skies. On Monday, winds will remain light and variable with minimal cloud cover.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 34 58 48 / 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 29 56 43 / 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 53 30 55 43 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 24 55 37 / 0 0 0 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.