textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 251 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- A few scattered showers into this evening, then additional widespread rain for much of Sunday, especially for locations near Georgia and North Carolina.

- Drier conditions will return next week starting Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A lot of rain fell earlier in eastern portions of Knox County and surrounding locales, with upwards of 3-4 inches in a narrow band from this morning's heaviest and steadiest rain. A handful of showers are ongoing now and a couple of additional showers, or even a storm, could develop late this afternoon into the early evening hours, though activity will remain far more isolated versus the widespread coverage from this morning.

In response to the approaching boundary tomorrow and better upper level support, we should see a reflourishing of the rain shield on Sunday, mainly south of I-40 and and south of I-81. This will yield an additional half inch pretty broadly, though if upper support helps, CAMs indicate potential for another narrow strip of up to 2" of rainfall. It seems improbable this will fall on this morning's super soaked areas, so again flood risk continues to be on the low end. Rain rates should also generally remain on the low side, except if we see some thunderstorm development along the leading edge of activity, much like the leading edge this morning had the heaviest rates. Since the atmosphere is quite saturated vertically, yielding low MLCAPE, I am not expecting any severe weather with the still to come rain, despite the marginally supportive wind shear.

Next week there's broad troughing way up north in Canada, broad ridging out in the American West, and a rather benign pattern locally. No significant height departures should mean pleasantly warm temperatures and dry weather will reign supreme for much, if not all, of the work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Rain showers continue to dissipate across the area. Precipitation will fully end by mid afternoon. Low stratus will continue to promote MVFR conditions through much of the morning, gradually improving into the mid afternoon. Low VFR cigs are expected to persist through the period. The next round of showers is expected to develop late tonight into Sunday morning. I have included light light beginning just prior to daybreak with a return to MVFR cigs. Dips in visibility are likely, but confidence in timing/significance is low at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 78 64 82 / 40 80 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 78 62 79 / 40 70 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 77 59 78 / 30 70 30 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 74 58 75 / 30 70 40 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.