textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

- Heavy snow accumulations are expected for the eastern half of the area Friday evening through Saturday evening with the highest totals being along and near the far East Tennessee mountains. Snow accumulations will be lighter but still impactful across most other locations.

- Extreme cold will return through the weekend with wind chills near or below 0 Saturday through Sunday morning. The mountains are expected to see values from 5 below zero to 20 below zero.

- A slow warming trend will follow next week with precipitation chances returning by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Currently, the upper jet is fairly zonal to our south with a pronounced shortwave moving into the upper Great Lakes region. A weak area of low pressure is also moving into the northern Gulf. An Arctic high near 1,045mb is centered just behind this wave with light snow already being picked up on radar near the Ohio River Valley. Throughout the day, the northern shortwave will deepen significantly as it advances towards the region. The weak low to our southwest will eventually move into the Atlantic before rapidly deepening through the weekend. Light snow will move into the region from the north during the afternoon and evening with more coverage and intensity late tonight into Saturday morning. Unlike many winter events we see (including last week), the thermal profile will be impressively cold, especially tonight when 850mb temperatures drop to near or below -10 Celsius. As the profile moistens ahead of the Arctic high, temperatures at 925mb will be nearly as cold. Any precipitation that falls will be snow later today into Saturday with the main question being how much QPF falls. With this thermal profile, snowfall ratios will be very high, 15:1 and rising to near 20:1 Saturday morning. The latest high-res model guidance has kept the overall location of heaviest snowfall totals in the same general locations, eastern portions of the region. This is especially true along and near the East Tennesee mountains where snow will linger through the whole day on Saturday. However, the overall trend in totals has been upwards for much of the area with some places in the current warning area increasing by 2 inches or more from the previous forecast. Some increases have also been noted along the eastern periphery of the advisory, which has led to an expansion of the warning. Also, there have been better indications for snow in portions of the southern Valley and to Bledsoe County where a low- end advisory has been expanded. With the vertical ascent and abnormally high these snow ratios will be, only minor increases to QPF are needed for significantly higher snow totals. For the eastern half of the warning, 4 to 8 inches is likely with portions of the mountains possibly reaching a foot. Even places like Knoxville could reasonably see 4 to even near 6 inches based on this trend.

As snow decreases north to south Saturday evening, extremely cold temperatures and dangerously low wind chills will be another focus. With highs struggling to get much above 20 degrees and a strong MSLP gradient, breezy winds will drop wind chills to near or below 0 across the whole region with values much colder in the mountains. While winds will be lessened Sunday morning, lows will be in the single digits. By Sunday night, the Arctic high will become centered to our south, providing better subsidence and radiational cooling conditions. Places with significant snow cover could certainly drop to near or below 0 for actual temperatures.

By Monday, troughing and surface high pressure will progress eastward, leading to height rises and a return of southerly flow. This will allow for temperatures to rise back above freezing for most. By Tuesday, further height rises and southerly flow will return daytime highs back closer to normal. Another shortwave and developing system will bring a return of precipitation chances by Wednesday. At this time, temperatures will likely be warm enough for mainly rain, but a transition to light snow is possible later in the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mid to low-level clouds will gradually advect into the region late morning into the afternoon. This will also be accompanied by increasing chances for snow this afternoon. By the evening, predominant MVFR/IFR conditions and snow showers are expected. Winds will be from the north and generally 10kts or less. By the end of the TAF period gusts around 15-20kts will be possible at TYS/CHA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 20 26 14 / 10 40 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 17 22 9 / 30 80 70 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 16 22 10 / 40 70 50 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 14 21 5 / 70 80 80 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for Cherokee-Clay.

Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday for East Polk.

Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Saturday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan- North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN- Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Saturday for Anderson-Bledsoe- Bradley-Campbell-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN- West Polk.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox- Loudon-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN.

Extreme Cold Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene- Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Sunday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.