textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record highs are possible.

- Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will generally be light, providing little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions.

- A cold front brings a chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue for the next 24 hours, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over FL today. Thursday will be similar to today, with highs in the 80s under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon RH values will drop to between 25-35%, with SW winds in the 10-15 mph range. This will be borderline for a Fire Danger Statement, and will reevlaute the need for that tomorrow morning after coordination with forestry.

The ridge axis will shift eastward Thursday afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches from the west and cross our area Thursday night. Showers should be showing a decreasing trend as they move across Middle TN Thursday afternoon, but what remains of them will enter our area late Thursday afternoon, likely between 4 and 6 PM EDT. Weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in scattered coverage and light rainfall amounts (mainly a tenth to a quater inch in the Plateau/SW VA/NE TN). Models show some elevated instability (~800-900 MUCAPE in the NAM) that may support a few thunderstorms, with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. Shear is too weak to support any severe threat.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the details that will be important in determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). A severe threat looks unlikely at this time given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler temperatures move in on Sunday, with highs near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Winds will be generally 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at TYS through the afternoon, dropping off around sunset. LLWS will be mentioned in the TAFs as surface winds decouple from winds aloft, which will be around 25 kt. With daytime mixing, gusty winds will develop again late in this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 87 62 90 / 0 20 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 85 61 86 / 0 20 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 59 85 60 87 / 0 30 40 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 83 59 82 / 0 10 40 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.