textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1254 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Accumulating snow will continue through through Saturday (especially in the morning) across much of the area with the greatest chance for more significant accumulations in the eastern half of the area.

- Extreme cold will return Today through the weekend, with wind chills near or below 0 at times tonight through Monday morning. Wind chills will reach 10 to 20 degrees below zero across the higher elevations.

- A slow warming trend will follow next week with precipitation chances returning by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Currently, an upper trough is diving toward the southern Appalachians with broad upper divergence over the region. Models show a persistent deformation zone around 700mb and inverted surface trough will enhance the forcing. The forcing/omega within the favorable DGZ will continue to enhance a moderate to heavy band of snow. This band has already produced 5+ inches across Bristol, Greeneville, parts of Cocke and into the Smoky mountains. Just outside of this band 2 to 3 inches of snow is being reported.

The deformation zone/band will persist through much of the morning so have increased the snow accumulations across the eastern Tennessee valley, northeast Tennessee, and parts of southwest Virginia. HREF/REFS mean snowfall show additional accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across these locations. No changes to current WSW products.

For this afternoon/evening into Saturday night, the upper trough axis will move east of the region with cold air aloft squeezing out any left over moisture to produce flurries/snow showers, especially across the favored orographic areas. Main story will be dangerous wind chills with Cold Weather Advisory/Extreme Cold Warning remaining in effect.

For Sunday and Sunday night, arctic high pressure will build into the region with return of sunshine but very cold temperatures.

For Monday and Monday night, high pressure weakens and upper flow becomes more zonal allowing for a welcomed moderation of temperatures.

For late Tuesday and Wednesday, a short-wave/jet streak will move across the Ohio and Tennessee valley producing isentropic lift as boundary winds become southwesterly and enhancing fronto-genetic forcing. Precipitation will mainly be in the form of rain but may end as snow showers.

Another northern stream short-wave brings a chance of wintry precipitation for late in the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

MVFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vis will be predominant among continuous snow at TYS and TRI for much of the period. Greatest chances for some snow to impact CHA will be mid to late morning. Additionally, strong northerly winds are expected to develop late morning into the afternoon. Gusts near 20kts will be possible at TYS/TRI. Stronger gusts near 30kts possible at CHA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 15 36 20 / 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 8 29 11 / 80 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 23 10 31 13 / 60 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 6 25 2 / 90 20 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Cherokee- Clay.

Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 PM EST Sunday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for East Polk.

Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ early this morning to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe- Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion- McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe- Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN- West Polk.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan- Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-West Polk.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-Hamblen- Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-North Sevier- Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN.

Extreme Cold Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 1 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Hamilton-Sequatchie.

VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 PM EST Sunday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.