textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Accumulating snow is becoming more likely for much of the area Wednesday night and Thursday, especially across the higher elevations of far east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Significant snow accumulations possible especially across the higher terrain.

- Another wintry mix possible this weekend. Confidence is low on the development of this system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

For Monday and Tuesday, surface ridging will build into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with dry northwest flow aloft. Low afternoon relative humidity is expected for Monday.

For Wednesday through Thursday, ensemble cluster and latest deterministic models show a series of upper jets carving out a deep northern stream upper trough into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and the central and southern Appalachians. A baroclinic leaf will develop over the Tennessee valley ahead of the upper trough as the strong 300mb jet dynamics enhances the incoming cold front/fronto-genetic forcing. An area of rain will move into the region Wednesday afternoon/evening.

For Wednesday night and Thursday, deepening upper trough will cold air aloft will move into the Appalachians with a quasi-stationary/ slow moving frontal front enhances the fronto-genetic forcing along with the cold air aloft steepening the low-level lapse rates for widespread precipitation. Vertical temperature profile becomes cold enough for rain to change to snow most locations by early Thursday morning. Freezing rain is not expected with this event. Thursday morning commute may be a problem for parts of the area.

For Thursday, upper trough axis will move east across the region with boundary layer flow becoming more northwesterly enhancing orographic lift. Cold air aloft squeezing available moisture and northwest flow orographic lift will continue snowfall over much of the area during the day, except for the southern Tennessee valley.

LREF probabilities of 1 inch or more are quite high for the Plateau, mountains, southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Significant snow accumulations are becoming more likely for the far east Tennessee mountains and mountains of southwest Virginia.

For Thursday night, snow showers are likely to continue across the favored northwest flow snow locations of far east Tennessee and mountains of southwest Virginia. Light snow showers or flurries are possible in the evening for areas north of interstate 40.

For Friday, upper trough lifts northeast with dry conditions and moderation of temperatures.

For next weekend, ensemble clusters and latest deterministic models show a great deal of variability with another system moving into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions with light winds and dry weather.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 29 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 28 55 38 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 27 53 36 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 21 52 33 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.