textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 116 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected at times Sunday afternoon into Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible which may lead to localized flooding, and a few storms may bring strong gusty winds mainly Monday afternoon.

- A drier weather pattern develops during the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A front is currently pushing south through the area, marked by a dewpoint gradient from around 70 south to around 50 north. It will be south of our area by sunrise, and a drier low level air mass will be in place for most of today. A ridge building along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians will keep the eastern portions of front across GA, but the western portions will lift northward from AL into Middle TN and near our Plateau counties with a NW-SE orientation. As a midlevel shortwave trough approaches, convection will likely initiate near the front this afternoon. In the NW flow, this activity will track across mainly our southern sections through the evening. Surface CAPE isn't very impressive, only 500-800 J/kg, so a severe threat is unlikely.

The next round of showers and storms arrives on Monday afternoon in the form of an upstream MCS. This round of convection appears to have a potential to reach severe levels, with MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg, effective shear of 40-50 kt, and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Low level winds from the NW and fairly weak do not favor adequate SRH for a tornado threat. Wind/hail appear to be the main threats with storms. The caveat is that there is poor agreement on how the CAMS are depicting this activity, with the HRRR being the most aggressive to bring it in our area, while the HiRes-ARW keeps it farther west in Middle TN into northern AL. The FV3 has a later arrival time than the HRRR. The wording in the HWO will be beefed up for this potential threat.

On Tuesday, we will see a deep northerly flow as the closed low over the Mid Atlantic region becomes dominant. There could be some scattered to isolated showers/storms in our eastern sections Tuesday afternoon. Beyond that, A large blocking ridge will be over the region, keeping dry conditions with a warming trend for the rest of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR flight categories should prevail through late morning when a mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS begin to develop with shower activity in East Tennessee. A bulk of the SHRA/TSRA expected today should be over the plateau, but there's enough confidence in them affecting KTYS and KCHA to include some VCSH and a PROB30 group at both sites. Moist low level atmosphere remains late in the period, but believe that a return to VFR conditions likely occurs after 00z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 64 85 65 / 40 30 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 64 82 61 / 40 40 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 82 63 82 60 / 30 40 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 61 81 56 / 0 10 50 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.