textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 721 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- Another cold front by Monday, but only light rainfall amounts expected. Potential for patchy frost into Tuesday morning.

- No significant weather concerns otherwise over the next week, more low to medium rain chances next Wednesday, mild temperatures for mid May.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Not a lot of rain in the next 7 days in total QPF, so good news for those who love drought. The HRRR is sporting a few low-topped showers on Saturday, but overall ensemble blends aren't as supportive. Could see a lucky isolated shower or two. As we head into the weekend, yet another longwave trough over the Eastern US helps to kick a cold front down into the Mid South. Showers, and potentially a couple thunderstorms, will traverse the area Sunday night into Monday morning. Unfortunately, while PWATs will be elevated as expected ahead of the front, there's no real steady surge of moisture laden air northwards, and relatively weak dynamics will combine to only bring light rainfall to the whole of the region. For those that didn't receive a lot of rain (Knoxville and north), don't expect anything truly beneficial. Marginal shear and even more marginal CAPE profiles aren't supportive of any strong thunderstorm threat, either.

Temperatures through all of this are generally mild to cool to mild again. Patchy frost is possible across northern TN into southwestern VA and the mountains Tuesday morning after the cold front brings cooler air in. A gentle warming trend takes place thereafter.

By mid to late next week, another longwave trough enters the Great Lakes region of the Eastern US, with a vorticity lobe orbiting through the southern extent passing through. This is a northern system, and overall light QPF fields in the deterministic guidance lends credence to the NBM's pitiful rainfall amounts. A longer range outlook from our national center depicts continued below average precipitation outlooks in the 6-10 day range and extended periods.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 721 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Somewhat breezy winds this evening which will slack off a bit with the setting sun. Winds will return again tomorrow, but otherwise high clouds and VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 80 58 83 / 10 10 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 78 55 82 / 0 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 50 79 54 82 / 0 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 74 50 79 / 0 10 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.