textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 720 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms continue this afternoon through the weekend. A few strong to marginally severe storms could produce gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Muggy conditions with near normal temperatures continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Amidst a surface high pressure center slowly meandering from the eastern Great Lakes region towards the Mid-Atlantic, broad ridging is in place for much of the CONUS with troughing over the northern corners. A weak southern stream disturbance will work with strong diurnal heating to promote scattered convection continuing through the afternoon and evening hours. Model derived soundings from latest CAMs depict 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with very weak steering flow and PWAT values into the 90th percentile. Because of this, cannot rule out a few strong to severe downbursts or localized flooding where any cells anchor onto terrain or outflows of neighboring convection.

A shortwave will translate through mean flow aloft, increasing troughing influence in the Ohio Valley and central to southern Appalachians Saturday into Sunday. Steering flow will be improved so the isolated flooding threat will be less relative to the previous day, but a weak shear profile may aid in development of semi- organized clusters that could lead to a few strong to severe wind gusts once again. However, NAMbufr soundings do limit MLCAPE to sub 2k J/kg with increased cloud coverage so confidence in the probability for a few strong to damaging wind gusts is a little lower. Additionally, cannot rule out some lingering showers and storms into the overnight period, mainly in vicinity of SW VA.

As the main vort max works through the region Sunday, additional scattered convection is anticipated with a diffuse surface front draping into southern KY. MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear near 25kts will continue to promote a marginal risk for a few strong to severe storms. High pressure attempts to build in Monday, with PoP chances restricted to the mountains. An additional wave will round the base of the trough in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. Worth keeping an eye on this system for additional strong to severe chances as anomalous low-level flow may enhance effective shear. Behind this system will be a cooler and drier airmass.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Storms will linger for the first couple of hours of this TAF cycle, with KCHA having the best chance to see storms to the west drift over the terminal. Expect coverage to decrease between 02-04z and VFR conditions are expected until afternoon storms develop again tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 74 91 / 20 30 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 88 73 88 / 30 60 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 73 89 72 89 / 30 60 40 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 87 70 85 / 30 70 70 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.