textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Wind Advisory remains in effect across the east TN mountains and foothills through 6 AM EST this morning for gusts up to 45 mph.

- Light freezing rain probable over the next few hours across the far northeast TN mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia. A change over to rain is expected before sunrise. Minimal to no localized impacts expected.

- A changeover to sleet and then snow still looks likely later this morning across the northern cumberland Plateau, and the higher elevations of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Limited accumulations at most. Little to no impacts.

- Dry Wednesday, precipitation chances increasing late Thursday into next weekend with multiple systems. Light precipitation amounts probable..

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Now Through This afternoon:

Rain:

Rain showers are moving across the region with the advancing shortwave. The bulk of the precipitation will exit by this afternoon. Storm total QPF looks similar to the last issuance, with most areas averaging between 0.5 and 0.75 inches. A few isolated areas may see up to 1 inch.

Wind:

A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM EST this morning for wind gusts to around 50 mph in the advisory locations, east TN mountains and foothills. The latest observation from Cove Mountain shows 52 MPH as of a few hours ago. The advisory level gusts should start to decline after 6 AM as this is when the 850 mb jet start to weaken across the area. However, wind gusts from 20 to 30 mph will still remain across the east TN mountains through the day.

Freezing Rain:

According to the Hi-Res models, freezing rain is probable at the current hour across the far northeast TN mountains. The most likely areas to see a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of ice, before the changeover to rain by sunrise, will be in the mountain communities near Laurel Creek, Forge Creek, and Brushy Fork in eastern Johnson County, TN near the TN/NC line. Minimal to no impacts are expected for most areas.

Sleet/Snow:

As the shortwave moves east later this morning, temperatures will drop as colder air moving in from the northwest on the backside of this system. The HRRR, REFS, HREF, still show a transition from rain, to sleet, to snow. This occurs between 7 AM and 10 AM this morning, but also as moisture is exiting. The latest HRRR runs are less bullish than previous ones, and show very little sleet/snow for any location in our area. If we do see this brief transition, it will occur in northern Scott Count TN, along the TN/KY state line, and into portions of southwest VA (most likely Wise County). Accumulations will be little to none and no impacts are expected. At best, there may be an isolated report of up to one half inch of snow but most areas won't even see a trace.

Some light snow showers are then possible later today and this evening across the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains as northwest flow takes over. Little to no accumulation is expected during this time and no impacts.

Rest of the forecast:

Patchy black ice could be possible tonight in areas that do not fully dry out, but the dry air and wind should evaporate most moisture on surfaces. High pressure and cooler air brings cool, clear conditions to the region on Wednesday.

Chance probabilities of precipitation arrive by late week into the weekend as a quick moving cold front and southerly low pressure system approaches our area. Moisture is limited, but some increased clouds on Thursday afternoon and Friday is expected. At this time, this is most likely an all light rain event for most locations. There is a chance for some wintry mix of rain and/or snow across the higher terrain of the mountains. Details are uncertain and forecast confidence in precipitation probabilities, amounts, and types if fairly low on Friday into Saturday. There is considerable uncertainty with whether these systems will remain weak and separate or phase with a resultant stronger low pressure system.

A quick moving northerly stream shortwave may impact the region on Sunday or Monday, but details remain uncertain. At the very least, minimal precipitation accumulation is expected with these likely moisture-starved systems.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

Poor aviation conditions will continue over the next couple of hours with TRI, currently VFR, expected to drop to IFR and MVFR by sunrise as rain intensifies. For CHA and TYS, further reductions beyond what is being seen are unlikely with visibilities improving in the next 2 to 3 hours. Ceilings, however, will be slower to improve back to MVFR by later this morning. MVFR ceilings look likely to continue throughout the day with a gradual shift to northwesterly winds. Some improvements after sunset are forecast at CHA by late afternoon, but persistent MVFR is likely at TYS and TRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 27 50 33 / 50 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 27 47 31 / 80 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 25 46 29 / 70 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 25 44 27 / 100 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.