textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

- A significant winter storm will impact the region, primarily around mid-day today through tomorrow (Sunday) night. All types of precipitation (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are expected.

- The heaviest snow and sleet accumulations (around 3 inches or locally higher) are most likely along the Tennessee/Kentucky state line and into southwest Virginia. The heaviest ice accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are most likely along the Cumberland Plateau/southern plateau, central and northeast East Tennessee, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Snow accumulations will be more limited further south with ice accumulations more uncertain along the foothills and southern Valley.

- High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and ridge tops on Saturday night into Sunday.

- Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

The highly anticipated impactful almost country-wide winter storm has formed to the west and will continue to strengthen as it shifts eastward this morning. Troughing encompasses the entire country with a closed upper low off of the Baja coast. This will eventually phase with the flow when it swings up into Texas late tonight. Additional pulses within the flow will sweep down from Canada, bringing much lower heights aloft overhead early next week. It will feel very much like winter with much below normal temperatures persisting through the week due to troughing locked in overhead and resurges of Arctic air sweeping down from Canada.

Though models show the initial shield of precipitation moving in later this morning, the challenge to start will be dry air at the surface. Once that is overcome, expect chances of precipitation to increase throughout the day today. There won't be much of a diurnal curve for some locations today with temperatures falling at this time and not getting too much above that for the afternoon. Many will start as snow mixed with other forms of frozen precipitation, as air aloft and down to the surface will briefly support mostly snow. As the inverted trough strengthens and a warm nose aloft builds in from the south, is when things begin to change and become more complicated. The later we get into today, the flow from the south will strengthen. Coinciding with that flow, winds over the Southern Appalachians will become stronger. To further complicate things, descending air over the mountains due in part to a strong wedge on the other side, will warm those closest to the mountains, limiting the frozen precipitation variety. We are fairly confident in that happening with the the latest NAM still showing greater than 60 KT low level flow. This has been persistent for days. Our hazards issued and latest WSSI from WPC depict this thinking pretty well with lesser winter storm impacts nearly east of the I-75 to 40 to I-81 corridor. A portion of this area doesn't meet minor impacts, even.

One potential hazard that may not be thought much of is the total liquid precipitation from this storm and pure heavy rain potential. What has generally been consistent much of the week is total liquid precipitation of around 2 inches or more. Upslope areas of parts of the plateau and from the GSMNP and south, depict the potential of near 3 inches of liquid equivalent or more. Though a lot of our area is in a drought, heavy precipitation in a short period of time could pose some flooding impacts. WPC's ERO from yesterday afternoon circles an area of MRGL risk of flash flooding across our southern TN counties into Cherokee and Clay counties in NC.

The time line of greatest impact will be near the start of the system to around early Sunday when it will be coldest and frozen precipitation chances the greatest. Thankfully with a consistent warming trend being forecast Sunday, precipitation should change over to rain during the day. However, the backside of the system may change back to the frozen precipitation type Sunday night into Monday morning when temperatures are expected to drastically fall. This, paired with what fell earlier in the event, could pose added hazardous travel early Monday. Highs are generally expected to stay below 30. The system ends with time Monday, finishing off over the higher terrain.

Caveats - There is still the chance that some will end up with potentially less freezing rain accretion, for example, if temperatures budge a bit a certain way, either due to southerly flow, downslope warming, or with a combination of struggling cold air. Recent CAMs try to show warmer temperatures than forecast even later today. This would be a good thing to end up with more rain than freezing rain. Snowfall totals haven't really drastically changed in the last couple of forecasts with the greatest amounts along the KY and WV borders, but like mentioned, what could easily change is the amount of freezing rain or even sleet. A small change in conditions or a certain factor from the surface to above could mean everything.

As briefly touched in the first paragraph, cold and mostly dry will dominate the rest of the week with strong high pressure developing over Texas and remaining focused over the southeast following that. Weak systems will be sent down with the shortwaves from Canada with possible chances for wintery precipitation for the northern part of the CWA mid to late week. Otherwise, dry and cold. Very cold wind chills will become a threat with any winds and gusts throughout the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Complicated winter storm moving into the area later today. A few gusty winds before morning, winds will weaken but remain generally northerly. Late in the period, LLWS will begin first at KCHA as the low level jet strengthens. A smorgasbord of precipitation types will ensue as the outer tendrils of the storm advance from southwest to northeast today, bringing light snow and sleet before transitioning to RA and FZRA as time goes on. Observing freezing rain will be extremely dependent on elevation and latitude across the region, and small temperature changes may result in large differences in impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 27 38 30 / 0 10 80 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 24 36 30 / 0 0 90 100 Oak Ridge, TN 46 22 34 27 / 0 10 90 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 19 36 27 / 0 0 80 100

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton- Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Rhea-Roane- Sequatchie.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Johnson- Morgan-Northwest Carter-Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan- Unicoi-Union.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk- North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Washington TN-West Polk.

High Wind Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.