textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 713 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms will continue each day through the forecast period, primarily favoring the afternoon and evening hours. A low chance for localized flooding exists each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The meandering upper low overhead will dissipate and be re-absorbed into the mean westerlies over the next two days, but steady moisture and August temperatures should allow for convection to fire each afternoon, with medium chances for showers and storms in the lower elevations. As our upper low feature dissipates to end the week, orographic forced storms I think will be more likely than valley based convection when we hit the weekend and head into next week. Next work week there's still uncertainty regarding strength of flow aloft, especially north of our area, but the NBM's low to medium chances for PM hours showers and storms looks reasonable, as we wait to see where better forcing arrives or if we're left to orographically forced storms for a longer period of time.

Otherwise each day should have 1000 to 3000 J CAPE available in the relatively moist airmass, and dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s should help combine for similar rain rate potential as yesterday. Days with lower CAPE may limit the overall risk, but the scattered summer convection should lend itself to a lightning and isolated flooding risk. A few gusts to 40 or 50 mph too depending on storm depth. Steering winds are still generally 10 knots or less over the next couple of days, so slow moving storms will have opportunity to rack up a quick couple inches of rain. As always with summer convection, location location location is everything with how impactful a flash flood risk is, so be mindful of local low spots or streams that don't need much to cause impacts. Transition to orographic induced storms over the weekend may also transition the bulk of the risk to the terrain for flooding potential, but any decent outflow boundary into the valley could spark new convection, as we saw yesterday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 713 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Fog was reported at TRI this morning and CHA went down to MVFR CIGs. Both will be back to VFR shortly. Today, VFR conditions are expected outside of heavy rain. Showers and storms will be more isolated this afternoon and early evening. Light winds will become more southerly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 90 72 / 60 20 70 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 71 88 71 / 50 10 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 87 70 87 70 / 30 10 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 67 84 67 / 60 20 80 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.