textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 715 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Possible multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected this morning through late tomorrow with breaks in between. At this time, tomorrow afternoon and evening holds the greatest potential to have a few strong to severe storms with gusty winds the primary hazard.

- Hot and humid conditions today and tomorrow. Heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s can be expected, especially in the central and southern valley.

- Mostly dry conditions with temperatures steadily holding just below normal Wednesday into next weekend. Precipitation chances return by the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The majority of this discussion will focus on now through late Tuesday.

Now or This Morning:

Last night and into the early morning hours today, we monitored an MCS moving south out of KY. It generated severe thunderstorm watches for middle TN, but that threat never extended east from there. What's left of a broken apart and decaying MCS, is what's currently exiting the northern plateau this morning. Severe storms are not anticipated. At worst, strong wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible with heavy rain and lightning. The storms are moving at a decent pace and aren't back-building, so a flooding threat is pretty low.

Tonight into Tomorrow Morning:

It should be a mostly dry day today before the next possible round of showers and storms tonight and into tomorrow morning. Another north to south moving MCS seems plausible, paired with pre-frontal showers and storms shifting out of KY and WV during the morning hours. Various forecast soundings around 12z tomorrow depict either a marginal threat for severe or none at all dependent on timing and if there's sufficient surface instability. Northeast TN into southwest VA may experience the greatest impacts, if any, with damaging winds the primary hazard.

Tomorrow Afternoon into Tomorrow Evening (Tuesday):

Models are coming more in agreement that we may see impacts from the cold front much earlier in time, when a couple days ago it was thought to be an overnight event. Though development and arrival will most likely be during the "best" time of day for strong to severe storms or peak heating, how it ends up playing out will all be dependent on the morning activity and how much clearing and destabilizing we can do. The greatest threat will be damaging wind gusts with heavy rains and possible flooding. Once we get closer and are able to see how early tomorrow may unfold, we can determine if secondary hazards like tornadoes and large hail will need considered as well. Timing as of this moment will be as early as the later morning hours to as late as the evening time frame. So, most likely time of greatest chances/threat will be the afternoon into the early evening.

Before getting into the rest of the forecast period, which won't be much to touch on at all, it will be hot and humid later today and especially tomorrow. Southwest VA into northeast TN may escape the hottest conditions, as well as the Southern Appalachians, but that goes without saying. Mid to upper 90s and maybe some 100s sprinkled in for heat indices today from the central valley south to the GA border. Better chances for low 100s heat indices for tomorrow afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Wednesday into the first weekend of August will see temperatures dropping to just below normal and for the most part, holding steady as lower heights from the western side of the trough sink south. Humidity will also trend lower into Thursday before a trend upward begins Friday. Surprisingly enough, once we clear things out of here early Wednesday, dry weather will most likely persist into early Saturday before precipitation chances creep back in. Surface high pressure at that time, begins to be replaced by another shortwave lobe and a system possibly moving in from the NW.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Showers have cleared all TAF sites this morning. The only category restriction is fog and low clouds at KTRI but that should clear up by 15z. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds are expected today. Another thunderstorm complex may move in from the north tonight but confidence is low enough in location and timing to preclude mentioning it at the moment.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 75 95 74 / 20 0 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 73 93 71 / 10 10 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 91 73 93 70 / 10 10 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 86 66 / 0 20 100 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.