textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 219 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon into this evening and again Saturday, with chances generally higher north than south. The threat of severe weather is low overall, but there is potential for localized flooding and isolated damaging wind gusts especially across our northern and eastern counties.

- Very hot for the weekend and likely into Monday, especially south and central valley areas. Then it will remain on the hot side through the week but likely a bit less oppressive.

- Drier mid week, then an increase in chances for showers and storms by Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The atmosphere remains quite moist and unstable, with scattered convection again occurring around the area. Given the lack of shear, the primary threat from the storms continues to be gusty winds with some marginal severe potential from wet microbursts mainly over our northern and eastern areas as highlighted in the SPC marginal risk. The other main concern continues to be flooding given the abundant moisture, slow movement of the thunderstorms, and very wet soils over much of the northeastern half of our area. Any prolonged or repeated heavy rains may result in localized flash flooding this afternoon into this evening.

The upper jet retreats further north and heights rise over our area Saturday as the upper ridge to our west expands over our region. Our southwestern counties may stay mainly dry Saturday as the cap is likely to strengthen enough to hold closer to the core of the ridge, although this is still not certain. Further north and east there continues to be a chance for showers and storms with threats of wind and flooding similar to today. Sunday currently looks to have less coverage of showers/storms, with the best chance in the mountains and our northeast counties.

The other concern heading into the weekend will be the heat. High temperatures in the mid 90s will be common across portions of the central and southern valley, and some spots will climb into the upper 90s. Heat index values will likely approach or exceed 105 in some locations especially across the southern valley. A heat advisory issued earlier today will remain in effect through Sunday for the southern valley and southern Plateau. The heat advisory may end up needing to be extended further north into the central valley by later shifts. Monday also looks quite hot but with more uncertainty, as short wave energy moving by to our north suppresses the ridge and pushes a weak summertime cold front toward our area increasing the chances for showers and storms. Given uncertainty on timing of precipitation and cloud cover that may impact temperatures that far out, will keep Monday out of the heat advisory for now.

Further out, models generally show some drying for the mid week period, with the NBM showing a mostly dry day Wednesday before chances for showers and storms increases again Thursday and Friday. It will continue to be hot for the Tuesday through Friday time frame, but currently the heat looks likely to be less oppressive than during the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered this afternoon and not possible to time well at any given site, but will carry prob30 thunder groups all sites this afternoon. Fog development chances will at least partially depend on if and when precipitation occurs at a terminal which is still unknown, so will keep the MVFR vsby in fog for a few hours at TRI for now. Otherwise, will have VFR conditions outside of any thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 97 76 98 / 10 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 74 94 74 95 / 10 30 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 89 71 90 / 20 50 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for Bledsoe- Bradley-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Rhea-Sequatchie-West Polk.

VA...NONE.