textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Isolated mountain showers this afternoon, more widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into Tuesday, with low potential for some strong to severe storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Currently, terrain based showers have developed. Meso-analysis shows limited instability with CAPE 250 or less so will keep only showers in the forecast.

For Saturday, a short-wave with RRQ upper-level divergence will move across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. A band of showers will initially move into the region in the morning hours. SPC HREF and deterministic models show increasing instability in the afternoon with ensemble mean CAPES of 750-1000. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. Convective activity will dissipate around sunset.

For Sunday, short-wave moves east with subsidence behind the system and building upper ridge producing a 700mb capping inversion. Only orographic lift over the far east Tennessee mountains will produce scattered terrain convection. Most locations will be dry and warm.

For Monday, upper ridging will continue to build over the area with tightening pressure gradient as surface ridging moves east into the Carolinas. A breezy and very warm day is on tap.

For Monday night through Wednesday, a series of northern and southern stream waves will produce an unsettled weather pattern. Confidence is low on how these series of systems will develop and how phasing is expected. There is a chance of severe storms during this period and will be monitored for later updates.

For Thursday and Friday, northwest flow aloft will be the dominant weather story with waves rotating down in this flow possibliy producing showers and storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Main forecast aviation concern is the incoming band of convection for Saturday morning. Limited instability in the morning so thunder chances are low but increasing in the afternoon.

Otherwise, tightening pressure gradients this afternoon will be gusts in excess of 15+ knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 76 57 83 / 60 90 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 72 55 79 / 30 100 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 59 74 54 80 / 40 90 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 74 54 75 / 10 90 60 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.