textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1251 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Widespread rain expected tonight through Sunday. High confidence in widespread +0.50" totals.

- A Wind Advisory has been issued for the East Tennessee mountains and foothills for early morning Sunday through early afternoon Sunday with downslope wind enhancement likely.

- Dry and significantly warmer next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Currently a ridge is over the Southeast and high pressure is centered near the NC/SC Coast. Tonight a surface low will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This low is supported by a strong trough embedded in the longwave ridge. Rain chances increase after midnight tonight as a warm front approaches. By morning, widespread steady rain will move in as the low tracks through the Southeast. Instability will be low enough that thunder is very unlikely. Rain will continue most of the day Sunday before tapering off in the evening hours. Forecast rain totals will be half an inch to one inch across the region. The best chance for more than one inch of rain will be in the northern Plateau and Southwest Virginia. Precipitable water values will be around 1 to 1.2 inches which is above the 90th percentile for Feb 15.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the East Tennessee Mountains and foothills for early morning Sunday through early afternoon Sunday. NBM winds are way too low. A 850 mb jet is moving into the region. HREF has 850mb winds around 40 to 45 knots from the south or southeast. With a wind direction favorable for downslope wind enhancement, gusts of 50 mph or maybe even higher can be expected in downslope wind prone spots.

Sunday night through midweek will be dry and much warmer as ridging and high pressure dominate the pattern. By Wednesday, the ridge breaks down with nearly zonal flow or weak ridging in the upper levels through Friday or Saturday. Low rain chances return late in the workweek possibly into the weekend as chances increase for a system to develop. Highs next week will be much warmer in the 60s and lower 70s in the Tennessee Valley.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Will see rain moving in later tonight and continuing through much of the day. Conditions will deteriorate to at least MVFR, and IFR conditions will be likely at CHA and possible at both TYS and TRI late in the period. Winds will generally be light. Looks marginal for LLWS at CHA for a period tonight, but not a strong enough signal to warrant inclusion at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 59 45 67 / 70 100 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 54 43 63 / 70 100 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 52 42 64 / 80 100 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 50 39 61 / 80 100 40 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.