textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 618 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Cool start today, with patchy morning fog possible. Otherwise sunny and pleasant.

- Another cold front moves through on Wednesday with chances for light rain highest north of the I-40 corridor. Gusty winds across the higher peaks of the east TN mountains through the day are also expected.

- If you've been waiting on summer, it arrives next weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s appear likely for the valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Today will be pleasant, with dry conditions across the board and plenty of sun thanks to surface high pressure and some slight height rises aloft. Despite the cool start to the day, temperatures will rebound into the 70s for low elevation areas and possibly near 80 for the southern TN valley.

The next shortwave will drop out of the midwest and into the Ohio valley tonight into Wednesday, with the cold front moving through the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain chances ramp up during the day Wednesday, but primarily north of the I-40 corridor which is closer to the stronger upper support to our north. Lesser rain chances exist in the south. Regardless, QPF with this event will be quite light, with well less than 0.10" expected. There remains an outside chance of a stronger storm impacting our far northern areas on Wednesday. Ensemble data continues to show joint probabilities in the 30-50 percent range for at least 300 J/kg worth of instability along with 30kt of shear for Wed afternoon and evening. However, the odds of seeing strong to severe storms on Wed seem pretty low overall. Additionally, H85 winds increase Wed which should be sufficient for some wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range for the highest peaks of the east TN mountains. Some 20 to 30 mph gusts are also expected across valley locations.

Colder on Thursday behind the front, followed up a quick warmup on Friday. Temperatures continue to climb into the weekend as ridging returns. Low 90s are possible for the southern valley by Sunday. The low 90s then creep into the central TN Valley by Monday. Latest models are showing better chances for some showers/storms on Saturday with new NBM POPs coming in around 30% chance.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast this period, with light winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 57 82 54 / 0 0 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 55 79 51 / 0 0 50 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 55 79 49 / 0 0 50 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 50 74 45 / 0 0 60 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.