textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

- After morning flurries and snow showers, dry and cold conditions are expected today and tonight.

- Another chance for rain and snow showers will return Friday night into Saturday morning with snow accumulations most likely to be in the higher elevations of the mountains.

- Snow is possible again on Sunday. Confidence remains limited in the westward extent of snow in our area, but places in the east have the highest chance.

- Dry and very cold conditions are expected on Monday, followed by a gradual warming trend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Currently, deep troughing is moving over the region with a strong cold front pushing to our east. Much of the better moisture has pushed east with saturation to 850mb or higher still in place. With northwesterly flow of 20 to 25 kts and 850mb temperatures below -10 Celsius, some additional snow showers will linger in the mountains but with the focus turning towards very cold temperatures and wind chills, especially in the mountains. Resulting wind chills will be below 0 with even lower values across the highest peaks. Flurries will linger for some early in the day, but moisture will exit even more as high pressure expands from the south. With 850mb temperatures below -10 Celsius, highs will likely remain at or below freezing for most with a lingering northwesterly breeze. Better subsidence tonight will allow for even colder temperatures well into the teens.

During the day on Friday, another trough will deepen to our northwest with a surface low diving into the Great Lakes region. This will bring another return of precipitation to the region later on Friday until Saturday morning. Based on the latest guidance, there is still uncertainty as to how far south cold air will be below 850mb. Most sources suggest the region to be below freezing at 850mb with the 925mb freezing line in our northwestern areas or even further north than that. With this scenario, focus for accumulating snowfall will be in the higher elevations of the mountains and southwest Virginia, which will likely be cold enough to see primarily snow. QPF totals will generally be anywhere from 0.10 to 0.25 inches, meaning several inches of snow are possible for the highest elevations. For remaining areas, temperatures in the lower levels largely remain above freezing before moisture exits on Saturday.

Sunday is another period that will need to be watched as a system is expected to develop along the Gulf and deepen as it moves up the Atlantic Coast. Currently, solutions still differ on how much this system phases, as well as the exact track. But our region will remain cold enough for any precipitation that falls to be snowfall. Currently, the eastern half of the area has the greatest chance to see accumulating snowfall, but many solutions still keep the track far enough east for limited impact locally. But some still show notable QPF in our area. Regardless, this will be a time to watch. By Monday, deep troughing will remain over the area with a Canadian High settling in from the northwest, leading to cold and dry conditions. Monday night will see a combination of strong subsidence, making the case for lows to drop well into the teens to possibly single digits for some. Afterwards, high pressure will remain in place but with gradual height rises and a warming trend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Snow showers are gradually weakening this morning as cold and dry air eats away at the moisture. Low stratus will remain VFR today, with a brief renewed bout of stratus this afternoon before clearing by tonight. Northwesterly winds will remain gusty for a few more hours before steadily decreasing and being around 5 knots tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 22 51 35 / 0 0 0 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 18 47 34 / 10 0 0 60 Oak Ridge, TN 31 18 46 33 / 0 0 0 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 14 44 30 / 10 0 0 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Johnson- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.