textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Scattered showers move into the area tonight.

- Cold front will move through on Thursday. Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal likely Friday through Sunday.

- Minor snow accumulations over the higher elevations of East TN and SW VA are likely Friday/Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Visible satellite imagery reveals an incoming deck of clouds from our southwest. A mid/upper level trough will dig in over the Ohio river valley tonight with the surface low tracking to our north. The attached cold front will move through tonight into Thursday bringing scattered rain showers through the region. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient instabilty and steep enough lapse rates to support a few rumbles of thunder, but severe weather is not expected given the lack of meaningful instabilty. On Thursday, much colder air will begin to filter into the Tennessee Valley region. Our upper level low closes off over the Great Lakes region on Thursday/Thursday night and will act as the center of a pinwheel for multiple weak shortwave disturbances to pivot around in the cyclonic flow. The first will move through Thursday evening into Thursday night and bring additional surge of cold air and an increase in PoPs. Additional disturbances will move through the area through Saturday with subtle uptick in precipitation, especially in the eastern Tennessee Mountains.

If we take a look aloft, h850 temperatures will begin to fall Thursday evening as one of the shortwaves move through. Forecast soundings support h850 temperatures going below 0c with values between -4 to -6c Thursday night and Friday. This combined with the strong northwest h850 flow will help changeover any rain showers to snow showers in the higher elevations and the mountains. While forecast soundings are not fully saturated through the DGZ, the combination of favorable flow off the western Great Lakes and upslope flow should encourage snow showers throughout Friday in the mountains. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered rain showers are likely with a non-zero chance of a few wet flakes mixing in at times.

So how much snow will fall in the mountains? Despite being 48 hours, there remains enough spread in guidance that continues to paint an uncertain picture. The GFS suite has continued to trend downward while the ECMWF suite remains steady. The 12z RRFS nearly double snowfall in Smokies compared to it's 06 and 00z runs. Our forecast is generally a minor snow event with totals of 1 to 3" and a few 4- 5" spots in the mountain peaks. This will be the first legitimate measurable snow in the mountains this "cold" season. Impacts from this early season winter weather will be minor and tied to the mountains. Anyone traveling through the mountains Friday/Saturday should exercise caution if it's snowing. Other impacts should be minor given the limited scope of this event. An elevation based advisory for our mountains may be needed, but there is some uncertainty present we have opted to wait until there is greater forecast confidence.

I would not be surprised to see locally higher amounts possible if the Euro-based solutions play out. EPS has 80%+ probabilities of 3" or more in the mountains and only 40 to 50% of 6" in the highest peaks. This is a higher end scenario, but it isn't too far fetched and is worth watching. The 24 to 36 hour stretch of favorable low- mid level flow off Lake Michigan tied with upsloping should translate to a good bit of snow. The previous weeks have been mild and dry with our soil temperatures elevated for this time of year. That will likely limit initial accumulations. TLDR: I wouldn't be surprised if the highest elevations managed a little more snow than the current forecast has.

Precipitation tapers off on Saturday as the upper low moves off the coast and the northwest flow weakens. Behind the upper level low, a high pressure builds in across the TN-OH Valley region that will bring dry conditions for early next week. Temperatures will gradually warm into early next week. Values remaining below normal until mid-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Some ISOLD SHRA will persist INVOF KCHA through the afternoon and evening, but widespread SHRA development should hold off until late this evening and the first part of tonight ahead of an incoming cold front. Flight categories may dip to MVFR levels if heavier SHRA affect terminals, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail until the early morning hours on Thu as post-frontal low clouds arrive. Winds will increase this afternoon and evening ahead of the front. Gusts of 18-20kt will be possible at KTRI and KTYS late in the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 60 37 52 / 30 0 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 57 38 48 / 50 20 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 49 56 37 48 / 60 20 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 55 36 46 / 70 50 40 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.