textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 740 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Multiple waves of showers and storms will move through the region through Sunday.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible each day. The primary threat will be gusty winds.

- A Flood Watch remain in effect through Sunday evening.

- Drier weather returns for the middle of next week with near normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Overall, the CAMs have done a very poor job over the last 12 to 18 hours. This morning's round of showers and storms weren't modeled at all until the 10/11Z HRRR runs started coming in, even with the activity having been on radar for numerous hours. This gives me very low confidence in how the convection unfolds over the next 48 hours. Additionally, a few days ago models were consistent in showing a well defined, broad, swath of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across a good portion of our area. While this swath is still loosely shown by the 12Z HRRR, it's not as well defined as it was a few days ago and the timing is different. The previous window for the greatest flood potential was late tonight into Saturday. However, now it looks like the greatest threat would be Saturday night into Sunday. Bottom line, the flood threat should build as we go into the weekend as repeated waves of showers and storms roll through the area. Areas that see repeated moderate to heavy rain will be the most likely areas to see any flooding issues. While flooding is possible at any time, the greatest likelihood appears to be Saturday night into Sunday. Also, a few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out each day through Sunday, with strong gusty winds being the primary threat. 2 to 4 inches of total rainfall is still expected for areas that see repeated showers and storms, but a few isolated amounts in excess of 5 inches are also possible. Once we see which areas receive the heavier rainfall today and tomorrow, it will give us a much better idea on what areas are more likely to see flooding between Saturday night and Sunday.

Beyond Sunday, models are now showing a wetter Monday due to the potential of a cutoff low rotating over our region. Isolated flooding could continue into Monday if we do receive the expected rainfall amounts, several inches, through the weekend. We dry out somewhat from midweek and beyond but daily chances for diurnal showers and storms will still be in the forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Very uncertain TAF forecast with at least two distinct rounds of showers/TS possible, excluding the small showers on radar right now. Additionally, TRI may descend to MVFR without the assistance of storms overnight before regaining VFR conditions tomorrow morning. Tried to narrow most likely windows and confidence to each TAF site for storms, TYS is most consistently likely to see an early morning round of storms, but the diurnal period of afternoon coverage is then less likely.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 72 87 / 70 80 60 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 84 70 85 / 90 80 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 70 84 69 84 / 90 80 70 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 81 66 82 / 90 90 70 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Lee-Russell-Scott VA- Washington VA-Wise.