textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next week. Medium to high rain chances on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Regional radar and satellite imagery shows plenty off low and mid clouds still around East Tennessee with embedded scattered rain showers ongoing. Further west however, convective coverage is increasing fairly rapidly, with some thunder being noted in the southern Cumberland plateau already. Most of the high resolution guidance favors additional development in the southern parts of Middle Tennessee this afternoon in an area of relatively lower pressure and surface convergence as noted on satellite imagery. These solutions then show that activity then transitioning ESE into the southern half of the Tennessee valley into the late afternoon and evening hours. This seems reasonable to me, but the current trends also suggest that maintaining rain chances area wide through late this evening is a reasonable approach too. This is what the NBM output

Rain chances wrap up tonight, with ridging building overhead on Sunday into Monday. Expect dry conditions during this time. By Monday afternoon however, strong cyclogenesis will be occurring in the upper midwest. This system will push a front through our area Monday night into Tuesday morning. The overnight arrival time and the stronger dynamics being displaced to our northwest suggest the severe threat with this system is not very high for our area. Will continue to monitor for now, but if these trends in timing, thermodynamic profiles, etc, continue then the severe threat looks quite low.

Heading into the midweek the upper jet re-strengthens and a slowly sagging cold front are likely to spur additional convection on Wednesday. The good news is multiple opportunities should eventually stack up and lead to decent rainfall results across a wide portion of the region, even if not every person scores in every round. The swiss cheese model of trying to escape drought via multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms. Even at the end of next week there's potential for a southern low to go riding along the southeastern front, yielding continued unsettled weather even if we're on the north side of the front by then. The longwave trough helping to push the front south also means cooler weather by the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

SHRA and TSRA coverage will increase through the afternoon and evening hours. Will maintain a TEMPO for those conditions at all terminals to account for this. Winds should remain light through the period, with variable direction this afternoon becoming steady northerly this evening and overnight. Fog development tonight seems likely but confidence in how widespread and how dense it becomes is not particularly high. KTRI probably has the best chance for calm winds and fog development, but it could occur anywhere.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 83 59 82 / 20 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 81 56 83 / 20 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 53 82 56 83 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 79 49 80 / 30 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.