textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 714 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Stuck pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Very low chance for localized flooding each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Synoptic situation looks fairly well understood, with a trough currently cutting off from upper westerlies, proceeding to hang around a couple of days, and then dissipating and being re-absorbed into the westerlies by late week. Next weekend potentially another Midwestern trough will be present, though the two ridges (one in the West, one in the Atlantic) may try to bridge that gap.

The end result of our slow moving upper friend is we will keep rain chances in the forecast every day over the next several days, and likely into the next weekend. Most of the activity will be diurnally focused, that is centered in the afternoon and early evening hours, but as we've seen this past evening, shower activity can continue into the nighttime hours, just with lesser coverage. Convection might be, on some days, focused moreso on the large terrain features we have and less so in the valley, similar to how Monday progressed, but each day will be dependent on the degree of lift we can obtain from the resident upper low, any outflow boundaries, and available instability.

As far as risks, steering motions are on the low side this week, so cannot rule out an isolated flood risk. PWATs aren't overly high, but the slow storm motions are enough coupled with the otherwise satisfactory moisture content to present a very low risk. Should any day realize more CAPE available for storm growth, then a few gusty winds in collapsing downdrafts is also possible, but with our low shear environment I think that is on the low side as well. And on days when storms get tall enough, lightning of course. Otherwise apart from storms we look to have standard August temperatures and generally light summer winds.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Showers and storms will be scattered this afternoon and early evening. Thunder chances are a bit higher than yesterday but chances on station are fairly low. Low to medium confidence on possible thunderstorm timing. Mostly VFR conditions are expected outside of heavy rain. Winds will remain light. Late tonight fog will be possible mainly near TRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 89 72 / 40 10 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 70 88 70 / 50 20 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 87 70 / 40 20 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 67 85 67 / 60 20 50 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.