textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 731 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Showers exit north to south into the morning followed by drier conditions continuing into Sunday.

- Showers and storms are likely Sunday night into Monday morning. Organized storms are possible, and this will be a period worth watching.

- Rain chances decrease but continue for the rest of the period with temperatures near or below normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Currently early this morning, a shortwave and upper jet are moving off to the east of our region with a frontal boundary approaching from Kentucky. Heavy rainfall has lead to some flooding in the north with the main focus through early morning being additional showers ahead of the front. With some instability lingering, isolated storms are also possible. Throughout the day, the front will move south of the region with high pressure building to the northwest, leading to drier and milder conditions and northerly winds. General troughing to the east and surface high pressure will remain in place on Saturday with the front to the south, promoting dry conditions.

By Sunday, a 500mb shortwave and surface low will eject into the Great Plains and move towards Missouri and Illinois with recent troughing lifting to the north. This will lead to increasing southerly flow and northward progression of the recent front as a warm front. Notably warmer conditions are expected with highs reaching back into the 90s for many. Moisture will be slow to return until Sunday night, which will bring chances for showers and storms. Per the latest data, instability will be greater to our west but extend into our region. A veering wind profile is expected with deep- layer shear potentially exceeding 35 kts and a strengthening LLJ. Instability will be better to our west but extend to at least 500 J/kg in the western half of the area. The CIPS Analogs have highlighted potential severe chances in our area as well. This will be worth watching in the coming days.

Beyond the Sunday night into Monday timeframe, there are variable indications of embedded shortwaves with the jet stream remaining to our north. After the warm front moves north, the trailing cold front will drift south of the area by Tuesday. This will decrease moisture for the remainder of the period but still sufficient for lingering rain chances.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 731 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Showers are beginning to depart the region to the south and any lingering low cigs will gradually improve as we head into the mid and late morning. Winds will be from the northwest and around 10kts this afternoon. Gusts between 15 and 20kts possible at TRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 65 87 67 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 62 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 83 60 / 20 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.