textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 127 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms try to move in this evening and tonight. Low potential of strong to severe storms, but the threat cannot be completely ruled out.

- Wednesday morning and possibly again in the afternoon/evening will see another round of isolated thunderstorms that could bring gusty winds and hail.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

UPDATE

Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Plateau counties has been cancelled since storms upstream in Middle Tennessee weakened significantly. We will continue to monitor activity moving into West Tennessee but with instability decreasing on the backside of the incoming rain and decreasing through the overnight hours, severe storms are not expected through the rest of the night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Discussion:

Currently storms have moved well to our south and well to our east, but are still currently ongoing. This long line of storms is likely going to influence the atmosphere tonight, so it's worth keeping an eye on as it's likely inhibiting the atmosphere from recovering and destabilizing. North of this line expect more minor/moderate destabilization this afternoon into this evening. This hopefully looks to limit the severe thunderstorm chances this evening/tonight. Cannot completely say we're in the clear, as we'll have to see how strong storms to our west (Currently over Arkansas) maintain strength as they move further east. If they have strong forward momentum they could bring their own dynamics as they move towards the Cumberland Plateau. However at this time its looking increasingly likely that the airmass over the eastern Tennessee Valley remains fairly stable and really squashes severe convection.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a potentially interesting day with more synoptic and jet dynamics likely in play in our area. Mid level jet starts to nose into the region tomorrow and along with it we'll see an increase in lapse rates, especially in the afternoon as they climb to 6.5-7.0C/km. The jets also bring with them some very dry mid level air which dramatically increases the DCAPE as we approach the afternoon hours. So there are 2 main timeframe for storms on Wednesday.

1. Wednesday morning around sunrise in northeast TN and southwest VA as the remnants of overnight storms get affected by better jet and dynamic forcing they could reinvigorate causing a brief window of strong storms

2. Later in the day as we destabilize and have stronger forcing overhead we could see isolated storms develop. These afternoon storms could bring strong downburst winds and quarter size hail. This afternoon window is pretty brief, with the highest chances to see strong storms around 18-22z (4-8pm EDT).

A few lingering showers are possible later in the evening, but the majority of people will remain rain-free most of the night. Friday night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through the s southeast bringing widespread showers and rain. With low instability expected, thunder will be minimal if any. Sunday looks dry. Temperatures will be cooler this week with highs in the 60s and 70s. The coolest day will be Saturday with highs in the lower 60s for most of the Tennessee Valley.

Yet another front will make a dive at the region early next week which could be the trigger for another round of showers and thunderstorms.

With several systems and rain events expected temperatures will stay fairly moderate for the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Reductions are already ongoing at CHA and TRI and are expected to continue for the rest of the night into the morning hours. Rain with isolated lightning strikes is approaching from the west and will produce further reductions at CHA with TYs expected to reach MVFR in the coming hours. This initial rain will move out of CHA and TYS by after sunrise with slow improvements back to VFR into the early afternoon. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop with the best coverage being around TRI. Reductions to at least MVFR are expected within showers and storms. Also, westerly winds will increase through the day with gusts above 20 kts likely by the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 55 72 52 / 60 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 52 68 48 / 80 20 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 77 50 69 48 / 80 20 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 48 65 42 / 90 40 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.