textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Dry and pleasant fall conditions are expected through mid-week.

- Increasing confidence in much colder temperatures for the latter part of the week. Some higher elevation snow is looking more likely as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Pleasant fall weather will continue over the next few days as a large area of surface high pressure remains over the region under WNW flow aloft. After chilly early mornings, we will see mild afternoons with high temperatures in the 60s for most valley locations each day through Wednesday.

A change will be arriving for the latter part of the week as models continue to show a shift to more winter-like conditions. The details are still in flux, but models generally show multiple short waves diving southeast out of Canada that dig out a large upper trough/closed low over the eastern CONUS Thursday and Friday. This upper low then begins to lift northeast over the weekend.

The initial short wave and associated cold front will likely bring some rain to the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Lapse rates steepen enough that a few rumbles of thunder may be possible, although right now convective energy looks very limited. Colder air will move in behind the front, and the colder air will then be reinforced as subsequent short waves rotate around the upper low. The details are still very uncertain this far out and will be important for our sensible weather, but this set up still looks favorable for some wintry precipitation especially across the higher elevations at times in the Thursday night through Saturday time frame, with accumulating mountain snowfall possible that will likely be enhanced by upslope flow. Snowflakes may even mix in over portions of the valley at some point although that is less certain. High temperatures may struggle to make it much above the 40s in many valley locations both Friday and Saturday.

Sunday looks to be dry as the upper low pulls away, but still on the cool side.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Fog is possible in the early morning hours at TRI. Confidence is low to medium. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue. Winds will be light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 41 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 38 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 66 37 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 34 66 37 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.