textproduct: Morristown

DISCUSSION

We remain under broad eastern CONUS troughing aloft, with surface high pressure currently over our region. This set up will keep us dry but with below normal temperatures through Thursday night.

By Friday, models are in general agreement that a strong short wave will be diving southeast out of the Plains, cutting off by Saturday as it tracks over our area and then lifting off to our northeast Sunday. A weak surface low pressure system is forecast to develop near the northern Gulf and then move east and offshore the SE coast before strengthening rapidly as it tracks to the northeast off the East Coast. This system will bring at least some light snow to the area, and in this case precipitation type is not in question but the uncertainty lies in how much snow will fall. Right now it appears we will have light snow begin to show up Friday especially north as we see weak isentropic lift out ahead of the main system. Then, as the upper low approaches and the upper jet to its south noses in, we will see a period of upper divergence that will enhance snow chances. Of course, the exact track of the upper low and the surface low to our SE and E will be critical, and the models often struggle with these details even just a few days out. Right now, the best chances for significant snow accumulations look to be over our eastern and northern areas. Currently, NBM probability data shows around a 40% to 60% chance of 72 hour snowfall exceeding 4 inches by Sunday morning across our northern and central mountains as well as eastern portions of the NE TN valley and SW VA, and a 20% to 50% chance of exceeding 2 inches of snow across much of the central valley, northern Plateau, and western portions of NE TN. Orographically enhanced snow showers may linger into Sunday across the normally favored terrain as well.

The other story for the weekend will be the cold. Another surge of arctic air will rush in on north and northwest winds, and high temperatures Saturday will struggle to get above the lower 20s even in the valleys. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the single digits in most areas. Wind chill values will dip into the single digits in the valleys with well below zero values at times in the higher terrain as well Friday night through Saturday night. Sunday will likely see temperatures remaining below freezing for nearly all of the area, and Sunday night will to be very cold as well.

Models are in general agreement that we will see height rises aloft and gradually moderating temperatures Monday through Wendesday. There is poor agreement on additional waves that may bring precipitation, but there is at least a modicum of agreement for more precipitation chances arriving by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period, besides a brief TEMPO for MVFR CIGs at TRI this afternoon. Winds will be gusty at TRI this afternoon through early evening with gusts to around 24kts out of the west. Otherwise, mostly quiet conditions through the next 24 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 22 42 26 43 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 20 39 25 40 / 0 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 19 38 24 40 / 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 14 34 21 37 / 0 10 0 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.