textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 224 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

- Colder tonight, with some patchy fog expected across areas that received rainfall earlier today.

- A 2nd cold front around Wednesday will bring the next potential round of light rainfall, primarily to our northern areas. Gusty winds across the higher peaks of the east TN mountains through the day are also expected.

- The heat gets turned up this weekend/early next week with upper 80s to low 90 degree highs in the valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Colder tonight. Clearing conditions may lead to patchy fog, especially across areas that received measurable rainfall.

A pleasant day is expected on Tuesday with drier air in place, sunny skies, and near normal temps.

Our next shot at rain, and perhaps a few storms, arrives on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. QPF is still expected to be on the lighter side and continues to favor our northern areas. There is a marginal risk for severe storms in place just to our north/northeast and east in portions of WV/VA. There will be plenty of shear but little to no instability. Current LREF joint-probs show around a 30 to 50% chance to see a few hundred Joules of MUCAPE and at least 30kts of bulk shear. Much higher probs are in place to our north/northeast and east, which is where the current day 3 marginal exists. It's not out of the question that a few strong storms clip our most northern areas but the risk is quite low as of now. Stay tuned. Additionally, due to the increase in the 850mb jet, wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph will be possible across the highest peaks of the east TN mountains. Some 20 to 30 mph gusts are also expected across valley locations.

Colder on Thursday behind the front, followed up a quick warmup on Friday. Temperatures continue to climb into the weekend as ridging returns. Low 90s are possible for the southern valley by Sunday. The low 90s then creep into the central TN Valley by Monday. Latest models are showing better chances for some showers/storms on Saturday with new NBM POPs coming in around 30% chance.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Rain showers have pushed east of the area. Forecasting VFR through the period at our TAF sites but some of our other sites are currently reporting MVFR conditions. It's not out of the question that TRI sees a brief period of MVFR this afternoon but not confident enough to include in TAFS. Additionally, some patchy fog is expected tonight, but will omit fog from TAFS for now due to low confidence in coverage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 80 58 82 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 48 78 54 79 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 74 50 74 / 0 0 10 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.