textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Significant Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations, with lighter accumulations (dusting to 1/2 inch) for the Plateau and valley from late Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday morning.

- Additional snow showers will be possible this weekend, especially over the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The main concern for the next several days is the potential for snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the discussion will largely focus on the potential of snow during that time-frame.

For Tonight, surface ridging will give way to increasing bounday layer southwest winds. Sky will be mostly clear in the evening with increasing clouds toward sunrise. Overall, another good radiational cooling night and have lowered mins below NBM guidance.

For Wednesday through Thursday, a deepening upper trough across the eastern United States will produce widespread precipitation. For Wednesday, a strong 300mb jet of 120-130 knots over the eastern Ohio valley will place the area under the favored right entrance region. This jet structure will enhance a frontal boundary moving across the area during the afternoon and evening. Strong fronto-genetic forcing is noted around 00Z tightening the thermal gradient along this boundary.

Initially widespread rain band will spread across the region associated with the baroclinic band. Vertical temperature profile quickly cools off due to the forcing with the snow level dropping quickly. The higher elevations will see snow by 3 to 4 pm, then snow levels dropping. The dendritic growth zone will be favorable around 00Z then moisture levels become more shallow. REFS shows 60-70 percent probabilities of 4 inch or more across the highest elevations but most of the higher terrain will see 2 to 4 inches across the far east Tennessee mountains with 1 to 3 inches across southwest Virginia mountains.

We have issued a winter weather advisory for these areas from 3 pm Wednesday through 11 am Thursday.

REFS does show 30 to 50 probabilities of dusting to 1/2 inch (possibly 1 inch higher ridges) across the Plateau and lower elevations of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Plan on issuing a SPS to message this possibility.

Due to orographic lift and cold air squeezing out left over moisture have continued chance of shower showers (high elevations) and flurries for the lower terrain through much of Thursday morning.

For Thursday night and Friday, upper trough has moved east of the area with another system moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. The forcing with this system looks to stay north of the area. Milder temperatures and dry conditions expected. with surface ridging.

Another deep upper trough digs into the Ohio valley for Friday night and Saturday. A series of short-waves will move across the region producing occasional mixture of rain and snow. Ensemble clusters show varying solutions with this system thus the confidence is low.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Will see VFR conditions for the period. Winds 2kft off the surface combined with light surface winds look borderline for LLWS at CHA and TRI overnight, so will continue to include LLWS at both locations. However, surface winds will be a bit stronger at TYS so will not include LLWS at TYS. Very near the end of the period approaching rain and lower cigs will be be on the doorstep, but will not include in the TAFS for now as the probability that it arrives before 18Z still looks low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 52 24 36 / 0 70 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 49 21 32 / 0 90 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 36 48 20 32 / 10 100 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 48 19 28 / 0 90 70 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EST Thursday for Russell-Wise.