textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible.

- There are limited chances precipitation through the forecast period, with little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A large ridge of high pressure will remain over the Gulf and SE CONUS at least into the first half of the weekend, keeping moisture very limited over our area and temperatures well above normal for this time of year.

Significant cloud cover Monday helped to hold temperatures down a bit, but today and Wednesday will bring fewer clouds, more insolation, and higher temperatures as highs make a run at records both days. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range.

Models show the ridge being suppressed on Thursday/Thursday night as a mid/upper level short wave trough crosses the region, although it will still be very warm. The NBM has been trending higher with rain chances, which are now in the chance range for all but the far southern portions of the area in the late Thu/early Thu night time frame. The NAM is more aggressive as is often the case, but overall model/ensemble data suggests moisture will be limited and the better convective energy will be to our west. Some weakening convection will likely approach from the west, but it is still questionable how much will make it into our area. Tempering any expectations for significant rainfall with this system looks prudent for now.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the short wave. High temperatures will be at least approaching records both Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into Sunday as models show a deeper trough developing over the Plains that could push a cold front through our area as it moves east, but these details are still in flux so uncertainty is high for how much precipitation we may see. It does look a bit cooler at the end of the period as highs should be back closer to normal for Sunday and Monday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002) 04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly winds around 10kts will return late morning into tomorrow afternoon. Gusts near 20kts possible at TYS. Mid to high level CIGS through the first 2/3rds of the TAF cycle. Skies will clear with light winds returning in the evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 59 86 60 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 57 86 58 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 55 84 58 / 10 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.