textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather today and Sunday with near record temperatures possible at Chattanooga.

- Widespread rain will accompany a strong cold front late Sunday night and Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide Sunday night and Monday especially across the higher elevations.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians early next week. Wind chills near zero are expected across the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Currently, weak isentropic lift is producing isolated sprinkles or light showers across east Kentucky and southwest Virginia. This activity will diminish by daybreak. REFS shows some higher probabilities of fog mainly across the Plateaa, western sections of the Tennessee valley and higher elevations.

Main weather story will remain broad upper ridge across the southern half of the United States with anomaly high heights producing unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs and Lows around 20-25 degrees above normal.

For today, HREF and deterministic show a drier airmass moving northwest from the Carolinas into the region allowing for more sunshine. The increase in daytime heating will allow for warmer temperatures with highs in the 70s most locations. Near record highs are expected at Chattanooga.

For tonight, boundary layer moisture returns with sky cover becoming mostly cloudy but remaining dry.

For Sunday, increasing isentropic lift and deeper moisture return may produce widely scattered showers. A digging upper trough over the mid-section of the nation will begin to tighten the pressure gradients across the Tennessee valley with brisk southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible.

For Sunday night and Monday, an upper trough will dig into the eastern United States with a strong 300mb jet of 150-155 kts over the Ohio valley and central Appalachians. The jet dynamics will produce a good deal of jet dynamics and frontogenetic forcing as the strong front quickly crosses the area from 3 am to 7 am Monday.

Widespread rain showers will accompany the frontal passage followed by strong cold advection through the day that will lead to falling temperatures during the daylight hours. Due to timing of the front made some modifications to NBM temperature curve lowering quickly into the 30s and 40s.

LREF shows most locations only receiving 0.20 inch of precipitation during the event.

Also, strong gradient winds will enhance the winds area-wide but especially for the higher elevations. A wind advisory may be need for the higher elevations ahead and and near the time of the frontal passage. However, LREF shows winds elsewhere likely gusting over 30- 35 mph during the frontal passage.

Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday night with single digits and teens in the valley. A cold airmass will settle into the region for Tuesday with highs only in the 30s. A slow moderation of temperatures will occur Wednesday and Thursday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 12-26 75(2021) 74(2015) 73(2015) 74(2015) 12-27 76(2015) 77(2015) 77(2015) 76(2015) 12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

Still some MVFR cigs around early, with CHA and TRI the most likely to be impacted. Otherwise, should be VFR for the bulk of the period all sites. Winds will generally be light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 61 74 44 / 0 10 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 56 73 42 / 0 10 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 71 56 71 40 / 0 0 20 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 48 67 43 / 0 0 10 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.