textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 252 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday night into Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with potential for some strong to severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A mid/upr level shortwave is currently progressing into the central Appalachians this afternoon. Associated precipitation will remain just to our north and east, with just an increase in mid-level clouds occurring across southwest Virginia. Main impact is the FDS that goes through the afternoon due to expected breezy conditions and low afternoon RH. The best alignment of strongest gusts and lowest RH are expected in far NE TN and SW VA.

An upper ridge and sfc high pressure takes greater control tomorrow. While low afternoon humidity is expected once more, winds will be light. Plenty of sunshine will accompany well above normal temperatures. A slight improvement in RH is expected Friday as southwesterly winds increase moisture advection ahead of a northern stream trough spreading into the western Great Lakes and a southern stream wave translating across the Gulf.

An associated cold front will increase the chance for showers and and storms as we head into Saturday. Latest NAM solution depicts a diminishing LLJ as convection spreads into our region, which will help limit availability instability as well as low-level shear. GFS probabilities of CAPE greater 500 J/kg range from 40-70%, but when looking at probabilities of greater than 1000J/kg probabilities sharply fall to 30% or lower. The most likely solution for Saturday seems to be general showers and thunderstorms, but we will continue to monitor as hi-res models become available.

A more amplified system is expected to bring another round of showers and storms late Monday night into Tuesday. Long range guidance suggest the more dynamic system will have better potential for LLJ to tap into Gulf moisture while persisting in strength as it swing through the Tennessee Valley. This leads to greater joint probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30kts relative to the weekend system. Though the best severe chances still look to be to our south and west, this system will bear watching.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions persist. Wind gusts around 15kts, up to 25kts at TRI, will continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Winds will calm in diurnal fashion this evening but increasing high pressure influence will keep winds light tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 51 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.