textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

- Extremely cold temperatures are expected this morning with a rise above freezing during the day.

- Temperatures will remain below normal Wednesday and Thursday but still rising above freezing for most of the area.

- Light snow is possible Friday night into Saturday with another shot of extremely cold air, possibly worse than what is currently being seen.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Currently, troughing and a strong upper jet are to our southeast with Arctic high pressure centered near the southern Mississippi River Valley. This setup has led to extreme cold conditions with winds producing even lower wind chills but somewhat limiting how close to 0 temperatures fall. No changes to the current Cold Weather Advisory are planned at this time. During the day, flow aloft will become more zonal with high pressure weakening to the south and another high approaching from the north. This will promote southerly flow at the surface and temperatures rising back above freezing for many locations. Another cold night can be expected tonight as radiational cooling allows for temperatures to drop into the teens for many. On Wednesday, another trough will be noted aloft but with more northwesterly 850mb flow. Temperatures will remain below normal with lingering high pressure keeping the region dry. The overall pattern remains fairly similar in our area on Thursday, but focus does start to shift towards our northwest. Troughing will begin to deepen over the northern tier with another Arctic high diving out of Canada.

By Friday, troughing to the northwest will deepen and become more broad with the Arctic high reaching 1045mb or greater as it progresses into the Great Plains. There will also be focus in the Gulf and Atlantic where a strong system is expected to develop and track up the coast through the weekend. Based on the latest data, this track continues to keep impacts well to our east. However, as the Arctic high expands into the area, moisture may be sufficient for light snow Friday into Saturday. QPF totals currently looks to be light, but the extent of cold air suggests snow ratios would be high. Regardless, the more significant impact will be another expansion of bitterly cold air, potentially worse than we are currently seeing. Ensemble data suggests 850mb temperatures to drop below -15 Celsius, possibly even near -20 Celsius. Values this low are nearing record values and certainly not seen with regularity. Highs on Saturday may struggle to get out of the teens for many with single digits for some a couple of nights. Saturday and Sunday will likely be below freezing area-wide, at a minimum. So any snow that does fall could be here for a few days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR TAF with dry weather expected. Gusty winds to 20 to 25 knots during the daylight hours. Lower clouds will begin moving in late in the period in association with a weak disturbance, especially at KTRI, and though not explicitly shown in the TAF, cannot rule out MVFR CIGs before the end of the period at KTRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 21 43 22 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 19 39 19 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 18 38 18 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 17 34 16 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST /11 AM CST/ today for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.