textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1258 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

- A weak system passing south of our area will bring rain Friday night and Saturday morning. Drier conditions return late Saturday through at least the early portions of next week.

- Another warming trend is expected into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1258 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Upper level clouds will continue to increase into the morning as a trough lifts northeast due to a weak impulse propagating across the central CONUS. A surface low pressure system will glide eastwards just to our south this evening into the first half of Saturday. This will bring increasing rain chances area-wide, however, the greatest rainfall amounts between one-quarter to one- half inch are expected along and south of Interstate 40. Rainfall amounts will be light and generally less than one-quarter inch for northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia.

Rain chances gradually diminish Saturday afternoon and into the evening as the system quickly departs north and east. Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions will cap off the weekend before increasing upper-level heights promote a warming trend into the new work week. Temperatures become well above normal by Tuesday when high temps increase into the 60s for a majority of the forecast area, continuing into the mid week.

Low chances (25% or less) of a very light rain exists with a shortwave translating through mean flow to our north Wednesday. An additional trough and potential development of a surface low is possible for the latter half of the week and NBM hangs onto some 20-40% PoPs for this reason. The strength and a positioning of an expected ridge over the southeastern US will play a critical role in how these PoP chances evolve over the coming forecast packages. Overall, still a fair amount of uncertainty this far out.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the daytime Friday. Friday evening, rain showers will move into the region from the southwest, bringing MVFR CIGs and possibly vis to CHA before midnight. TYS and TRI may see MVFR conditions (or worse) after midnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 47 57 36 / 30 90 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 44 54 35 / 20 80 50 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 43 55 32 / 10 70 40 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 40 50 33 / 0 50 60 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.