textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be around each day through next Saturday, with the afternoons generally the period of most activity.

- There will be potential for a few storms to become strong to severe each afternoon at least through Tuesday (and possibly beyond), with damaging winds and localized flooding the main threats.

- Temperatures will be generally not be far either side of normal for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A trough that was located across KY/West TN/AR last evening will be making slow eastward progress today, crossing our area late in the day. Weak dynamics with the trough will mean generally similar sensible weather to what we have had for the past several days. Weak flow, PWAT values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range, and MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg point to another day with a potential for scattered convection with a few storms becoming strong to marginally severe, with strong winds the primary threat along with localized flooding.

With the trough east of our area by Monday, we will be in a NW flow through the mid to upper levels. This will bring some midlevel drying and lower PW, but also greater instability with lapse rates 6.5-7 C/km and MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Shear will continue to be lacking, but given the better thermodynamic profile, storms on Monday and Tuesday could pose a slightly higher threat of becoming strong to severe with damaging winds still the primary threat.

For Wednesday onward, a ridge over the central US and a broad trough over the western Atlantic will keep our area in a NW flow. Some disturbances in the flow and/or upstream MCS remnants may bring chances of showers and storms each day, with the northern areas favored for the higher rain chances and potential for strong storms. A frontal boundary may set up south of the OH Valley later in the week, possibly into southern WV, which could be the focus for some heavy rain and flooding concerns around Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 119 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

There's decent uncertainty with regards to flight categories through mid morning. Ongoing mid/high clouds across East Tennessee should gradually dissipate through daybreak. Where these thin/clear out, a mix of fog and low clouds seem likely, most likely a mix of IFR CIGS and VSBY as opposed to MVFR. A return to VFR conditions is expected by 14-15z. Then we should see another round of SCT to NUM SHRA/TSRA across the region this afternoon into the early evening. Best odds are near/south of I-40 so will include at KTYS and KCHA only.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 92 74 / 40 20 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 91 73 / 30 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 69 88 69 / 20 10 20 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.