textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 216 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be around mainly south and southeast areas through Friday. There remains a threat of locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

- Higher chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms can be expected during the Friday night into Saturday night period. - For Sunday through Thursday, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible at times, especially north.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The weak boundary is trying to edge to our south, and the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding is diminishing across our area for this afternoon. The flash flood watch will be allowed to expire on time across the central mountains and areas adjacent, but will allow the flash flood watch across the south to continue as is for now since the threat of flooding, while lower, is still non-zero especially in areas where the ground is already saturated.

With the proximity of the nearly stationary boundary to our south, an inverted surface trough oriented with its axis up the Tennessee Valley, and weak short wave energy moving across aloft during Friday, convection is expected to increase again across mainly over our south and east counties later tonight into Friday. Convective energy looks very limited but may be enough for a few thunderstorms. Some of the CAMS suggest locally heavy rainfall will be possible over our far southeast counties, especially our SW NC counties. While currently the threat of flooding looks lower than what we have experienced today and yesterday, there looks to be enough of a localized flooding threat to warrant mentioning in the HWO for Friday.

The general pattern from Saturday through Thursday will be a large upper ridge continuing to build to our west over the Plains and an eastern CONUS trough. We will see short wave energy sliding through the northwest flow over our region at times which will increase chances for showers and storms. The most notable short wave activity is forecast to move across the area sometime in the Friday night through Saturday night time frame although models differ on the details. This should result in scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms (although current model data suggests CAPE will be limited at best). For Sunday through Thursday timing of individual short waves is quite uncertain, but chances for showers and storms with these features does generally look higher north than south.

Temperatures for Friday and Saturday look to be a bit below normal, then the remainder of the period will likely see temperatures not far either side of seasonal norms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Scattered showers and a low chance of a thunderstorm (too low for mention in the TAFs) will be around TYS and especially CHA early in the period, and a few showers will be around again late in the period. MVFR conditions to start will likely improve to VFR for a period later today into tonight, then conditions will slide back to MVFR all sites later in the period. Winds will generally be light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 72 87 / 40 50 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 86 70 85 / 20 20 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 69 85 / 10 20 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 83 67 81 / 20 20 20 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Bledsoe- Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

VA...NONE.