textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 742 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Chances for showers and isolated storms will increase later today and through the weekend with locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Drier and cooler conditions will return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A front currently arcs through the Ohio Valley crossing the Mississippi and southern Plains and southward through central Texas. Upper level ridging is being compressed as the shortwave associated with the front moves eastward towards our area. Surface high pressure remains nearly anchored just off of the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Yesterday was our last dry day area-wide at least until next week. Later this morning, the portion of the front arcing through the Ohio Valley will cross into western Tennessee. The morning will start dry, abnormally warm/humid. Chances for precipitation then begin to increase as we get into the afternoon hours. The frontal system does cross the area sometime later tonight into early tomorrow, however, it will become stationary just to our south and not totally clear the area until possibly late Sunday into early Monday. What this means will be periods of wet weather for the entire area this weekend. So far, a marginal risk for flash flooding is in place except for a majority of southwest Virginia. With the highest FFG across our southern areas, some places could have the capacity to take a good amount of rainfall and not have much of a threat unless training occurs with consecutive heavy showers/storms. Sunday still appears will have the heaviest rainfall amounts as the low center moves overhead as the system finally pushes out. Forecast PWATs for Sunday at this time do show values nearing or edging above 2 inches, which would be conducive for heavy rain makers.

As far as any storms, there isn't a severe threat, but there could be some embedded storms. Instability overall will be lacking with poor lapse rates and shear. The greatest threat this weekend will be periods of heavy rain with the possibility of localized flash flooding. Grand total QPF amounts, though being fine tuned with each new forecast, show the entire forecast area seeing at least 1 inch of rain. Amounts of over 2 inches has been cut down as we've gotten closer to the weekend, as well as any values above 3 inches. Greatest amounts are forecast south of I-40 and along the higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians.

Rain clears the region as we enter a new work week next week. A secondary front will send everything out of here replacing it with dry weather, northerly flow, and temperatures typically recorded in early October. Surface high pressure sinks in from the north and frontal systems until the end of the period are forecast to remain well to our south and to the north, for now. However, there's some uncertainty with regard to the southern extent of moisture and if it may bring light precipitation to our southern areas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 742 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with persistent mid to high level clouds around today. Moisture will continue to increase tonight, with scattered showers and maybe some isolated thunder near or just shortly before midnight tonight. Included VCSH at all sites but confidence is too low to include any mentions of prevailing rain or thunder at this time. If a shower does directly impact a terminal later tonight, vis categories could be briefly reduced.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 69 87 68 / 40 20 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 67 82 67 / 20 50 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 87 66 80 65 / 30 50 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 77 63 / 10 50 70 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.