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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 737 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected Friday and continuing through the weekend. Flash flooding will be a concern for areas that see repeated heavy downpours. A Flood Watch is in effect Friday afternoon through Sunday evening.

- Some storms could lead to strong wind gusts as well, especially Friday afternoon.

- Drier weather returns for the middle of next week with near normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A weakening shortwave is lifting from the southern to central Appalachians this afternoon and evening. Isolated to weakly scattered convection has developed in its presence. Latest model derived soundings and SPC Mesoanalysis page suggest MLCAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg paired with PWATs between 1.5-1.7 inches. Cannot rule out some gusty winds or localized flooding if multiple strong cells track over one location, however, the main focus for the forecast period will be tomorrow and carrying into the weekend.

A more potent shortwave will enhance westerly low and mid-level flow Friday morning, also amplifying upper level longwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes region. Multiple rounds of showers and storms among highly anomalous moisture availability are expected Friday through at least the weekend as various vort maxes round the base of the trough.

Some showers and storms may develop Friday morning, but with drier air aloft and limited instability due to the time of day, lower confidence exists in the potential for minor flooding. As we head into the PM hours, a semi-organized cluster of storms is expected while PWAT values increase to near or just above 2 inches. This reaches into the 90th percentile for PWAT values based at KBNA. Combined with high freezing levels and plenty of afternoon instability, the chance for flooding will be on the increase. A Flood Watch has been introduced starting at 16Z and carries into Sunday evening. Additionally, strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with the activity roughly between 11am-4pm Friday as an elevated mixed layer will promote enhanced DCAPE near 800-1100 J/kg. Strong to damaging winds will be the primary hazard.

A brief lull in activity is expected late Friday afternoon before additional showers and storms develop Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this period looks to have the greatest potential for flooding as a northwest to southeast area of convection develops and could lead to training heavy downpours. The chance for precipitation continues into Sunday and Monday, but there is a bit more uncertainty as to how the the position of a front evolves through the weekend and into the new week. However, it does look that Tuesday into the mid week will feature drier conditions among a warming trend. The best chance for some lingering precip would be in the very southern tier of counties.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Showers and storms are currently isolated and that is expected to continue through most of the night. By the early morning hours, activity may start to increase. Multiple waves of showers and storms are expected throughout the day and may begin in the morning hours. Confidence is low on timing. VFR conditions are expected outside of storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 73 88 / 10 50 60 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 88 72 84 / 30 80 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 71 85 / 30 90 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 67 81 / 30 90 90 90

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.