textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

- Isolated areas of much colder temperatures possible this morning in valley locations with snow still on the ground. Low temps could sink as low as the upper single digits.

- Precipitation chances returning by later today, mainly as rain. Rain/snow mix possible, mainly for the higher elevations, but could see snow mix to the lower elevations as well. Accumulations very light, if any, but confidence is low on actual amounts and what could stick.

- Dry with near normal temperatures through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

We don't suspect it will be like 24 hours ago, but the clearing skies, calm surface conditions, and leftover snowpack is resulting in some temperatures already colder than forecast. A cloud deck earlier today enveloped the entire forecast area, making it difficult to reach the forecast highs. As this deck has slowly exited to the northeast, fast decoupling has occurred in some locations, mainly with snow still on the ground. We mainly don't suspect it will bottom out as bad, because surface and aloft features are different compared to Monday morning; weaker surface high pressure, warmer 850 mb temperatures, westerly flow, and higher heights aloft. Even still, there is the possibility of isolated pockets of much colder temperatures, perhaps, in the lower teens to upper single digits in sheltered valleys.

Clouds eventually return later today with the passage of a weak frontal system. Flow will switch out of the SW with high pressure to the SE, so temperatures, in theory, should be warmer today than yesterday. What will possibly again complicate things like Monday afternoon, is snowpack may keep high temperatures a few degrees less. Have sided with a bit chillier guidance with this in mind.

With temperatures above freezing for most today, the front will arrive and fall primarily as rain. Since this is a weak cold front, temperatures will fall a bit behind it. Early on, parts of the highest elevations could mostly be a rain/snow mix, but further along into early Wednesday with cooler temperatures (perhaps colder with leftover snowpack), may result in a rain/snow mix for parts of the lower elevations. Measurable snow between a tenth of an inch up to around an inch (highest elevations), is possible but confidence is low on what that will actually be for lower elevations, with warmer temperatures, old snow on the ground with bare ground, etc.

Later Wednesday turns dry and that mostly persists through the rest of the forecast period over the coming weekend, except an outside chance of a clipper for northeast portions of the forecast area Friday into Saturday. Lows will be much colder, so will have to watch that one closely.

The coolest highs of the week appears will be Thursday under backside troughing aloft. Temperatures improve for the weekend with near to just below normal readings.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Calm winds with increasing high clouds are expected overnight. Low clouds gradually increase late morning into the afternoon ahead of an approaching weather system. Winds less than 10kts will be from the south/southwest. Rain chances increase at all sites by the late afternoon and evening hours, with increasing likelihood of MVFR and potentially IFR conditions by Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 39 46 23 / 80 80 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 36 42 20 / 80 80 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 35 41 19 / 80 80 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 34 40 18 / 70 90 30 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.