textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 719 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Very strong gusty mountain wave enhanced winds will impact some of the higher elevations and foothills of the mountains tonight into early Monday. Lesser, but still significant and gusty, winds can be expected across the remainder of the area Sunday afternoon and night.

- A line of showers and storms will move across the area after midnight Sunday night. The main threat will be damaging winds, but a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across the southern valley and plateau.

- Very cold air surges in Monday and continues across the area through Wednesday morning. Snow showers may bring light accumulations in higher elevations and parts of southwest VA Monday afternoon and night.

- Gradual warming trend with mostly dry conditions mid week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

We are currently between an upper ridge with its axis to our east, and an upper trough digging into the western Plains. A surface low pressure system over the Central Plains will deepen and move northeast and north into the Great Lakes Region by the early morning hours Monday as the upper trough digs into the Mississippi Valley, dragging a sharp cold front through our area after midnight Sunday night.

The southerly low level jet will be strengthening beginning tonight, and will peak Sunday night ahead of the front with 850mb winds expected to be around 50 to 60kts at that time. Mountain wave enhancement of the winds is expected to bring strong gusty winds to the normally favored higher elevation and foothill areas starting tonight, with the strongest winds Sunday night as the low level jet peaks. The high wind warning will be allowed to continue as is. Elsewhere the winds will become gusty as well, with many locations seeing wind gusts of 30+ mph during the afternoon Sunday, and a few spots may gust close to 40 mph. There will likely be a period of even stronger winds Sunday night as the pressure gradient strengthens near the advancing front, and this would be the best chance to see gusts to advisory criteria in areas not included in the high wind warning. This will bear watching and a wind advisory for Sunday night may be needed as we get closer.

Another expected impact from this system is the severe storm potential with the line of convection that will be moving through after midnight Sunday night. Not much has changed from previous thinking. The timing still looks to be after midnight, with the line sweeping quickly through the area entering the Plateau by around 1 AM and exiting to our east by 5 or 6 AM. The primary threat still looks to be damaging winds, although a tornado threat does exist due to the very strong shear and at least some available convective energy. Models indicate the 0-1km shear will likely peak near 40 kts with effective shear as high as 50kts along with a hodograph that favors streamwise vorticity in the low levels. Some hi-res model data suggests a brief window where SBCAPE could reach 250 to 500 J/kg just ahead of the front with 0-3km CAPE climbing briefly to around or above 40 J/kg mainly across and near the Southern Plateau and portions of the southern Valley, with weaker instabilty to the north. There is a very low tornado threat across the majority of our area, but it is a bit higher across the aforementioned higher instability areas across the southern Valley and southern Plateau.

Behind the front it will turn sharply colder Monday. Temperatures will be falling during the day rather than showing a typical diurnal trend. The freezing level will rapidly drop, and rain showers will transition to snow showers first over the higher elevations, and even the valleys may see some snow mixing in later in the day before the precipitation ends. The ground is still rather warm, and light accumulations of snow will likely be limited to the higher elevations, although a short lived dusting on grassy surfaces may occur even in some valley locations. Low temperatures may not be far from record lows early Tuesday morning, and potentially Wednesday morning in some northern spots. Sub-zero wind chills are also likely in the mountains Monday night/Tuesday morning.

The Wednesday through Saturday time frame looks mainly dry with a gradual warming trend, although an upper short wave with limited moisture available moving through the flow may manage to squeeze out a few light showers at some point. However, the NBM is leaning mostly dry and the forecast will follow suit for now.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 719 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Low level wind shear is still present and will continue through mid morning. By mid morning, surface winds will increase with gusts of 25 to 30 knots expected even past sunset. VFR conditions are expected today with a gradual lowering of CIGs this afternoon or evening and deteriorating conditions as a line of showers and storms moves in after midnight. Winds will be gusty tonight ahead of and during the showers and storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 40 45 26 / 0 100 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 41 48 24 / 10 90 70 20 Oak Ridge, TN 73 40 45 24 / 0 90 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 44 53 21 / 10 80 90 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...High Wind Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.