textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 229 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through this week. Record highs are possible.

- Dry weather is likely to persist through next week, worsening drought and fire conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The forecast can be characterized by SE ridging and a strong surface high over New England, that will eventually meander to just off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic. Weather systems will primarily round the top of the ridge, keeping our area from seeing much needed rainfall into the coming week. With high pressure eventually situating to our east, southwest flow will send in much warmer temperatures in the coming days. Some may see their first 90 degree reading of the year/season. Any day with low RHs in the afternoon and really good atmospheric mixing, could see temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than guidance suggests. A table of daily record highs will be at the bottom of this discussion, as records could be tied or broken.

The primary concern with persistent dry conditons since Easter, for most, will be an increasing threat for fire weather; with temperatures continually warming and not much in the way of moisture return. Minimum RHs will mostly fall in the 20 and 30 percent range. SW winds are forecast to increase this afternoon and most likely remain in that general direction much of the week. Southwest winds tend to be a favorable direction with a funneling-like effect up valley, thus, creating stronger gusts. Gusts up to around 25 mph possible today, increasing to near 30 mph tomorrow. SPC Fire placed much of the forecast area under an elevated fire weather threat due to winds, low RH, and dry fuels. Even though winds will be stronger tomorrow, increased cloud cover may keep RHs from worsening with mixing heights forecast to be a few thousand feet lower.

Any chance for precipitation at all? A couple of showers that developed yesterday were able to spit out up to around two hundredths of an inch across a portion of northeast TN, if you can believe what was recorded. Today will be dry, but it's possible our northwestern fringes get brushed by light precipitation tomorrow and Tuesday. A front will try to develop and punch through the ridge by the end of the week, but confidence is low on just how much precipitation could fall. QPF in very dry patterns tends to get cut down once closer to the event. The LREF shows no more than a 40 percent chance of greater than a tenth of an inch Thursday into Friday. And that's only for the northern Plateau into SW VA. The next best chance of widespread rain for the entire forecast area doesn't appear to be until just outside the forecast range, perhaps early next week.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948) 04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017) 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Main difference relative to previous days will be the development of breezy south to southwesterly winds in the afternoon hours. KCHA and KTYS will be most likely to see some wind gusts in the 20-25kt range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 62 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 62 82 61 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 60 82 59 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 57 79 56 / 0 0 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.