textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

- Dry and warmer to start today, before a cold front arrival later tonight. Gusty winds ahead of the front for the forecast area. Wind Advisory in effect for all except the southern part of the forecast area.

- NW flow snow event expected later today through early Thursday with accumulating snow over parts of the Southern Appalachians and higher terrain of southwest Virgina. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- We will warm up again late week with low chances of precipitation across the north.

- Stronger cold front Sunday into Monday will considerably drop temperatures. Lows in the teens with some single digits Monday morning. Cold wind chills also possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

The forecast for today has come into better agreement over Wind Advisory level winds for everywhere north of the southern valley and southern plateau later today. As well as an accumulating snow event for northwest flow prone locations of the forecast area; Southern Appalachians and parts of southwest Virginia. Temperatures will be warmer today, however, cloud cover will be on the rise.

Almost advisory level winds are being observed at Cove Mountain with gusts in the upper 30s at the time of this discussion. A WSW LLJ will increase into the overnight hours, bringing increasing winds to the higher terrain. Later in the day as mixing occurs, the gusty conditions will translate to the surface for the lower elevations, hence the advisory covering the day-time. A heavier weighted blend of the HREF/RRFS was used to capture the usually overperforming SWly winds for the valley. Gusty winds will continue into Thursday morning for the higher terrain, slowly decreasing behind the FROPA. A Wind Advisory is in effect later this morning first beginning in the mountains, expanding to the lower elevations, later finishing for the mountains early tomorrow.

Confidence has also increased on higher snowfall amounts for the higher terrain with the latest guidance. The day will start warm, but temperatures will fall coinciding with the cold front later this evening. Rain will transition to a rain/snow mix, and then eventually all snow for elevations primarily above 2500 feet. Low-level moisture, NW winds, and temperatures below freezing are evident on forecast soundings, all supporting northwest flow snow. Snow will end early to mid Thursday when low-level winds drop off and lose the NWly component. Total snowfall accumulations will generally be 1 to 3 inches with higher mountain tops possibly seeing above that, for example, LeConte may see up to 5 inches. It's possible some light snowfall may be seen across lower elevations of the northern valley and plateau, but is generally not favorable with NWly flow due to more downsloping on the valley side, which means drier. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued and will begin mid-day, running 24 hours highlighting the potential for the aforementioned areas.

Following the snow's exit Thursday, a short cool-down can be expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing cloud cover. However, precipitation from a weak system will bring increased chances to northern parts of the CWA Friday. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising which will bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday.

Later this weekend becomes a bit complicated in regards to more precipitation due to potential interaction of southern and northern stream systems, but the one thing models agree on, is a substantial drop in temperatures Sunday into early Monday. Strong high pressure is expected to barrel its way through, originating from Alaska and Western Canada, where temperatures there have been in the 50s below at night, but we will not see that here. Monday morning lows are currently forecast to be in the teens with some single digits for the highest elevations and parts of southwest Virginia. Wind appears will be on the decline once we get later in the night Sunday into Monday, which is good news and may suppress what could be much worse wind chills. High pressure will eventually shift eastward but will keep us dry through at least early Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

LLWS tonight and gusty winds during the day will be the main aviation impacts this period. A low level jet is ramping up and will peak across the area between 12-18Z. Winds near 2 kft will be in the 35-45 kt range overnight, then as the boundary layer mixes later in the morning, these SW winds will mix to the surface and be channeled up the TN Valley. Gusts around 40 kt are expected at TYS. These winds will decrease in the late afternoon. A front will move into the area late in the day, and bring MVFR cigs and light rain showers to TYS and TRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 30 45 31 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 29 40 30 / 30 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 29 40 29 / 20 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 27 35 24 / 50 50 10 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this afternoon for Anderson-Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Northwest Monroe-Roane-Scott TN-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this afternoon for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for Russell-Washington VA-Wise.