textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong/severe storm possible mainly Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Main threat will be strong and gusty winds.

- Windy conditions for the far east Tennessee mountains/foothills tonight/early Tuesday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph possible.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Potential of strong to severe storms but timing, intensity, and extent of the severe thunderstorms remain low.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the East Coast tonight as a shortwave moves through the Great Lakes. Nearly zonal flow will be over the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, a low is moving through the Great Lakes with a cold front currently over Illinois into Missouri and Arkansas. A line of showers and storms is along and ahead of this front. Scattered storms have developed over Middle Tennessee. CAM guidance has these storms forming a line and falling apart as it moves into the region. Still some strong to severe storms will be possible mainly in the Plateau counties and Southern Tennessee Valley. Gusty winds will be the primary threat as the line moves through the region late tonight into the early morning hours.

With southerly winds increasing overnight, downslope wind enhancement is expected in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills with gusts up to 50 mph expected in downslope prone spots. Winds will peak overnight and begin decreasing by daybreak. 850 mb winds will peak around 40 to 45 knots in the Tennessee Valley. Cold air damming on the North Carolina side of the mountains is enhancing the pressure gradient between the Tennessee Valley and the North Carolina mountains and will increase downslope potential to the Tennessee foothills.

Rain will clear out Tuesday morning as the cold front remains well to our west. Another round of showers and storms will move into the region Tuesday evening as a weak low develops in the South. In the upper levels, a shortwave will move through the pattern Tuesday evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible mainly in the Plateau counties and the southern/central Tennessee Valley. Timing around 8pm to midnight is the best chance for some stronger storms producing gusty winds. Forecast soundings suggest that capping maybe a limiting factor.

Showers and storms are possible through the day Wednesday as the weak low moves through the Southeast. With good effective shear and decent instability expected on Wednesday, we will have to monitor for severe potential. By Wednesday evening or night, rain will clear out as the front moves through with a cooler, drier air mass expected by Thursday.

Friday night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through the Southeast bringing widespread showers and rain. With low instability expected, thunder will be minimal if any. Sunday looks dry. Temperatures will be cooler this week with highs in the 60s and 70s. The coolest day will be Saturday with highs in the lower 60s for most of the Tennessee Valley.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Showers and storms will move into the region over the next several hours with LLWS currently expected in CHA and TYS. During the storms, strong winds are possible, along with quick reductions to MVFR or less, mainly from 09Z to 13Z. MVFR conditions will continue through much of the morning as rain coverage decreases. Improvements are expected later in the day with continued southwesterly winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 64 80 54 / 60 90 90 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 61 76 52 / 50 90 100 30 Oak Ridge, TN 77 61 77 51 / 50 80 100 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 58 72 48 / 60 80 100 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.