textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Widespread rain expected Saturday night through Sunday. High confidence in widespread +0.50" totals, with greater than 50% chance for an inch or more of rainfall primarily over the northern plateau area.

- Dry and significantly warmer next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

A weak upper low will be traversing from west to east across the Southeastern US over the next 48 hours, bringing much needed rainfall to drought-stricken areas. As far as rainfall, the best odds of an inch reside across the northern Plateau and north side of Knoxville at the moment. There's been some indications in the model guidance of a gradient in rainfall rates, with lower rates closer to the Georgia border near the core of the low, and higher rates further north where the best dynamical support will reside. So there may be winners and losers versus overall magnitude of the rainfall. Those with outdoor plans on Sunday should still pack a poncho or consider alternate plans.

Long range REFS and HREF indicate a period of gusts up to 40 mph in the southern TN mountains for a brief spell Sunday morning as flow aloft increases to 30 knots. Better wind support resides to the west, but strong inversions should keep surface gusts down outside of the high terrain. For now will opt against a wind advisory, just because the overall support is pretty meager.

Once the upper low quickly exits to the coast, upper ridge heights will begin building in once more, with the H85 ridge anchored over the southeastern coast, and anomalous February warmth will follow for midweek. Late week there's indications a surface low will cross the heartland to the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front down towards us. For now there's just low chances of rainfall, likely due to timing differences.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Cloud cover will increase at or above 10,000 feet AGL with generally southerly to southwesterly winds by the afternoon. Overnight, winds at the surface will weaken, but winds a few thousand feet AGL will increase. LLWS is possible by the end of the TAF period but was left out for the time being. Also, rain chances will increase south to north heading into Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 47 57 47 / 10 80 100 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 44 52 44 / 10 80 100 30 Oak Ridge, TN 59 44 52 44 / 10 80 100 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 40 49 40 / 0 70 100 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.