textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 242 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected for northeast TN, southwest VA, and southwest NC this afternoon. Any thunderstorm could lead to gusty winds and small hail.

- A dry weather pattern will and set up across the region for the rest of the week. Near to slightly below normal temperatures through Thursday, then a return to slightly above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

An impulse traversing mean flow aloft will allow for a deepening upper trough to swing through the southern Appalachians this afternoon and tonight. Latest radar mosaic depicts scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms developing as this happens. Convection will remain primarily focused around the higher terrain and far northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia as we head into the evening. Most valley locations and the Cumberland Plateau will remain dry.

Latest RAP soundings depict mid-level lapse rates increasing to 6.5- 7.0 C/km and wet-bulb zero levels falling to near 8kft. Small hail will be the main concern with isolated thunderstorms. DCAPE between 700-1000 J/kg suggest evaporative cooling could also contribute to locally gusty winds, though, MLCAPE 500J/kg or less will limit severe concerns. Overall, quiet weather is expected overnight. Drier air and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the 50s. Patchy fog is also possible in and near river valleys.

We finally see a pattern shift to drier weather and near normal temperatures as an upper level ridge and high pressure settle in tomorrow. The dry pattern will continue through much of the week and even into the weekend, though a gradual warming trend is expected as H5 heights increase Friday. Southerly flow will enhance moisture advection into the region Sunday and into the new week. This will bring a return of precip chances as the northeast trough axis makes an attempt to extend further southwest.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Predominant VFR conditions for the period. Breezy northerly winds are expected at CHA/TYS this afternoon, becoming light at 5kts or less tonight into Wednesday as high pressure settles in. There will be scattered showers with isolated thunder in vicinity of TRI for a few hours this afternoon. Reduced visibility may occur if a storm directly impacts a terminal. A brief PROB30 is used to highlight the time of greatest probability.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 80 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 80 53 84 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.