textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue, with activity more confined to the higher terrain tomorrow. A few strong to marginally severe storms could produce gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Possible strong cold frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday bears watching for severe weather capability. Below normal temperatures and drier air will follow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The large scale pattern can be classified by ridging generally centered over the Four Corners region and Intermountain West the next couple of days, followed by weak NWly flow over us with troughing to the north and subsequent shortwaves cycling through. A possible tropical system may eventually become enveloped in the flow around the Peninsula and Big Bend of Florida early to middle part of this week. A stout shortwave diving SE across the Great Lakes before curving up around New York late Tuesday into Wednesday, will bring our next frontal system across the area. Following that, we'll still be situated east of upper ridge into the latter part of the week and into the weekend.

Today will be very similar to yesterday in regards to shower and thunderstorm mode and environment. Again, plentiful unstable conditions with PWATs running near 2 inches. Shear will continue to be weak, further away from the best dynamics. Therefore, heavy rain, lightning, possible gusty conditions, and localized flooding will be on the table today. For tomorrow, according to CAMs, the best chance of showers and storms appears to be more confined to the higher terrain, with a pseudo stationary front draped over us. Weak flow may keep the currently un-named system to our south, possibly not impacting us at all.

Tuesday into Wednesday may need monitoring with the potential for severe weather with the next cold front expected to impact the region. The SPC highlights Kentucky into Pennsylvania Tuesday, and the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday. Timing will certainly play a role, but deterministic model forecast soundings during the overnight period do show an increase in shear.

Following the mid-week cold front, Thursday will be very nice with low to mid 80s highs and dew points in the 60s under high pressure. Temperatures rise a couple of degrees into the weekend, but for the most part remain below normal. A shortwave cycling the top of the upper ridge Friday into Saturday, may bring precipitation chances back to the area and unfortunately increased dew points yet again.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A band of showers, maybe a rumble of thunder, is expected to cross from NW to SE over the next 6 to 8 hours, affecting TRI and potentially TYS. Have VCSH for now, will metwatch for TS. A few hours of MVFR also likely at TRI in association with showers. Otherwise another day of diurnal showers and thunderstorms during the main convective timeframe in the afternoon to early evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 91 74 / 60 20 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 72 89 74 / 70 20 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 88 72 89 73 / 80 30 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 68 87 69 / 70 40 50 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.