textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 650 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week , with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day.

- Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, risk for urban and low lying flooding, and lightning.ning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

An upper low continues to spin over the Ozarks, and will make slow eastward progress over the next few days. The air mass ahead of this system will be warm and muggy, and there will be little significant change in the sensible weather for our area through Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day. We will have moderate instability (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) each afternoon, with weak lapse rates aloft and little to no shear, so the severe threat will be marginal at best. Slow storm motion and high PW values in the 1.7-1.9 range will result in storms that dump heavy rain and produce localized flooding.

The closed low transitions to an open wave and moves east of our area by Thursday night. A broad trough pattern with embedded shortwave troughs will persist through the weekend. A frontal boundary will move near the region Sunday as well. This will keep the unsettled weather conditions going into early next week with more widespread showers and storms. A drier pattern may develop next Monday/Tuesday as a large high pressure ridge over the Plains shifts east to the Great Lakes and OH Valley.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Fog and low clouds have been ongoing at all 3 sites but especially TRI, which remains LIFR or less. Conditions should improve at all sites within the next hour or two, leading to VFR conditions and light southerly to southwesterly winds. Scattered showers and storms are expected again during the afternoon and early evening hours with the better coverage around TYS and TRI, so PROB30 was introduced. Places that see rain could see fog again late tonight into Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 72 89 71 / 60 20 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 87 70 88 70 / 80 20 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 68 87 68 / 60 30 40 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.