textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

- Much colder temperatures expected tonight and Sunday.

- Gusty winds, especially in the higher terrain. Wind chill temperatures much colder than ambient temps. Trees and powerlines will be vulnerable.

- Seasonally colder and mostly dry weather will return by Sunday into early next week, though a few snow showers with possible accumulations generally for higher elevations Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

In the short-term, a vigorous upper-level trough will pivot across the Southern Appalachians this evening. As the trough axis shifts east overnight, flow aloft will transition rapidly to a northwesterly regime ushering in strong cold air advection. The post frontal environment will be characterized by a tightening pressure gradient and a 35-45 knot northwesterly low level jet at 850mb. Model soundings indicate efficient momentum transfer in this regime, particularly where lapse rates steepen in the lower levels. This should support wind gusts of 30-40mph in the higher terrain and exposed ridges of the East Tennessee mountains late tonight through Sunday afternoon.

Some orographic lifting of the lingering low level moisture along the western slopes may squeeze out flurries or light snow showers in elevations above 3500 ft - areas such as High Knob, Roan Mountain, etc. Surface temperatures by Sunday morning will be much colder than the past couple of weeks as nature finally got the memo that it is still winter.

Probabilistic guidance indicates a greater than 80% chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph for the highest peaks o f the Great Smoky Mountains. There is a wind advisory for these areas most likely affected. This may lead to isolated downed trees and power outages in the high elevation communities. Valley locations will be breezy but remain below advisory criteria.

Seasonably cool weather will continue through Tuesday. By Wednesday evening the models begin to diverge in their solution to the next, possibly impactful trough. Current ensemble probabilities for measurable precipitation hover around 30-40%, heavily dependent on the track of the southern low. Thermal profiles suggest that if precipitation does reach the area, it would primarily be rain for valley locations with a low probability (less than 25%) of a wintry mix. Higher elevations would see the majority of any accumulating snowfall.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Widespread rainfall has moved east of the area, however, a few lingering light rain showers still possible early this afternoon. Winds will become westerly and perhaps gusty at times after 04Z. Gusty westerly winds will persist throughout the morning hours and likely into Sunday afternoon. MVFR conditions expected overnight at all TAF sites due to low ceilings. Improvement to VFR at KCHA and KTYS will occur mid morning but KTRI will remain at MVFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 44 27 51 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 41 23 46 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 34 41 24 46 / 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 38 20 44 / 50 30 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.