textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Cooler temperatures through Sunday.

- Dry weather and near normal temperatures are expected for the first half of next week.

- Increasing signal for much colder temperatures the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

A stretch of pleasant weather is on deck for the next couple of days. High temperatures will gradually warm from the upper 50s/lower 60s to the mid-upper 60s by mid-week. The culprit is tied to increasing heights aloft and the building influence of a surface high pressure through the first half of the work week. This will keep us on the eastern edge, but do enough to keep the weather generally mild & dry. The ridge in question will build over the central CONUS.

This will allow split flow to develop with a shortwave ejecting out across the southern tier Tuesday. This trough will slowly track eastward and should lead to an increase in sky cover on Tuesday. By Wednesday, our northern stream provides us with a deep trough progged to drop south out of Canada into the Great Lakes region. Upstream, the mid level ridge begins to build north into central Canada as the pattern becomes more amplified. The northern stream jet will be forced south into the SE CONUS by Thursday in response to the building ridge upstream. Ultimately, we end up with an Omega block-like pattern by late week as another trough digs in along the California coast. Much of the eastern CONUS will see a shift toward a cooler, damper pattern as several lobes of vorticity move through the cyclonic flow of the Great Lakes low. Each disturbance will bring multiple rounds of reinforcing cold air from Canada into the southeast US. Colder air will settle in by the end of the work week with high temperatures only in the upper 40s to lower 50s by Friday. Colder air will not be the only concern as precipitation chances begin to increase Wednesday night into Thursday. Each weak disturbance that pivots around the parent Great Lakes low will bring an increased chance of precipitation through Friday.

There is increasing confidence given the run to run consistency across various models and ensemble guidance. We will need to monitor the potential for the first accumulating snowfall of the season at some spots in the mountains. The combination of northwest flow and cold air aloft would be enough to support snow chances at the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with light winds and dry weather.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 64 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.