textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 137 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 - Strengthening high pressure aloft, and subsequent warming temperatures this weekend through much of next week. Afternoon highs in the mid 90s with heat index values of 100-105 degrees seem plausible for the middle of next week.

- Dry conditions should prevail for most places through the coming week, though some isolated storms each day can't be ruled out. That being said, after this afternoon, the best chances will be over the Smokies.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Upper heights will begin to rise tonight through the weekend as upper troughing over the eastern CONUS begins to relent, and a strong upper ridge shifts east from New Mexico towards Tennessee. This ridge eventually becomes centered over East Tennessee and the southern Appalachian region by Tue/Wed of next week and remains in control of our weather through the end of the period.

Generally speaking, most areas will be dry through the end of the forecast period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, guidance is pretty insistent on daily rain chances over mainly the Smokies each afternoon and evening. The ridge, while strong, isn't exceptionally strong and there are troughs moving through southern Canada that keep it from amplifying too much. So it seems reasonable to me to expect at least some isolated convection over the Smokies each day. Equally as reasonable is the lack of convection in the lower elevations beneath the strong subsidence.

As for temperatures, highs warm to around 90 in the valley this weekend, and then firmly into the low to mid 90s from Tuesday onward. Chattanooga may even break into the upper 90s before it's all said and done. Not record high territory, but definitely hot and above normal for this time of year. In addition to the warm temperatures, dewpoints will also be fairly high which will result in heat index values of 100-105 degrees many afternoons next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026 All sites begin VFR and should remain VFR throughout the period. Thunderstorms remain well off to our east in NC as we remain dry throughout the period. The one caveat is at KTRI where patchy BR/FG may develop near the terminal. I upped VSBY from MVFR to 6SM when compared to the previous TAF. Light north winds will turn light and variable overnight before turning more southeasterly on Saturday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 93 71 92 / 0 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 91 69 91 / 0 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 91 69 91 / 0 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 88 65 88 / 0 20 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.