textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1235 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

-Line of showers with potential for a few embedded rumbles of thunder move across the region early this morning. Severe weather is unlikely, but some strong wind gusts between 30-40mph will be possible.

-Rollercoaster temperatures, with warm conditions through Saturday, cold Sunday and Monday, and then likely mild again for mid week.

-Cold front early Sunday likely to induce northwest flow snowfall pattern through Sunday night. Light snowfall accumulations possible in higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and southwest Virginia, with potential for low elevation flurries.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

In the upper levels, a broad ridge lays atop the southeastern CONUS as a shortwave trough begins to dig through the upper mid-west. The shortwave will guide a surface cold front, currently within western Tennessee, through the CWA early this morning. A quick moving line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected just ahead of the front. Timing will generally be between 08-12Z. With a strong southwesterly LLJ near 50kts, a high shear / low CAPE environment will be in place. Most high resolution model derived soundings depict a few hundred J/Kg of MUCAPE with effective shear near 50kts and 0-1km shear near 40kts.

Overall, the nocturnal timing of this activity will really hinder severe potential, though it is possible some strong winds between 30- 40mph get transported to the surface with the most efficient showers/storms. Additionally, the LLJ will continue promote strong winds in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains. No changes have been made to the Wind Advisory aside from refreshing wording.

Shower and storm activity quickly departs this morning, leading way to a dry late morning and afternoon. Winds will be breezy in the post-FROPA environment, however, the weaker nature of the shortwave and front will allow for winds to remain WSWly. As such, above normal temperatures are expected once again. A southern stream shortwave will translate towards the southern Appalachians Friday evening/night, bringing additional rain chances. Storm chances will be even lower during this period as the LLJ will be weaker and displaced to our south, keeping instability little to none. Drier conditions return late Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Yet another trough is expected Saturday night. However, this will bring a pattern shift as this trough will be strong enough to shift upper riding over the Atlantic. Some light and low impact precipitation is expected early Sunday. For most places this will be rain, but some light snow is expected in higher elevations of the mountains and southwest Virginia. The very warm temperatures in place ahead of this system will help to limit initial accumulations.

As a surface low strengthens off the Atlantic coast Sunday night, reinforcement of northwest flow will promote additional snow in the higher terrain. Most medium and long range models are in agreement this will be a lower end event with accumulations between a dusting to two inches. The deterministic GFS holds higher totals, but seems to be an outlier due it being slower to kick the surface low over the Atlantic and also having a more amplified low. Overall, the RRFS, NAM12, ECMWF, and Canadian all seem to be in pretty decent agreement.

Monday will be much colder with most valley locations seeing high temperatures in the 30s. We then dry out with moderating temperatures into the mid-week. Precip chances look to make a return at the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Mostly VFR through the period. Gusty west winds up to 25kts at TYS and TRI through the rest of the afternoon and into early evening. Calmer winds overnight along with lowering ceilings at all sites as precip moves in. PROB30 MVFR at CHA and TYS early tomorrow morning. Then, prevailing MVFR at CHA from 12Z onward but VFR expected at TYS and TRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 66 36 48 / 60 30 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 60 36 44 / 50 30 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 45 61 34 44 / 40 20 30 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 57 35 40 / 20 20 50 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.