textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 123 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Friday.

- Rain chance returns Wednesday night and continues through the weekend, generally light rain amounts expected.

- Cold temperatures return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

A high pressure ridge across the Southeast is providing another beautiful day in East TN with above normal temperatures. Tonight, the mid/upper ridge will shift to our east, and clouds will increase as an upper jet streak and shortwave trough move N-NE across the MS River. Low level moisture increases as well tonight as the SW flow brings isentropic lift. This moisture layer is quite shallow in model soundings, confined mainly below 850 mb, and remains so through Wednesday. Measureable precip is not likely, although there could be a few sprinkles here and there. Winds will become gusty Wednesday afternoon as SW 40-50 kt 850 mb winds increase and mix down to the surface. Mountains may approach Wind Advisory criteria, but are more likely to stay below in most popluated elevations, according to the NBM.

Rain chances increase late Wednesday night and Thursday with a little more forcing and instability associated with a weak trough/vort max. QPF should be very light as moisture remains below 700 mb, but there could be a enough instability for isolated thunderstorms. Better rain chances come on Thursday night/Friday with a surface cold frontal passage. Again, there could be gusty SW winds ahead of the front on Thursday afternoon, and QPF appears light due to its shallow moisture, weak instability, and a rather flat SW flow aloft.

A closed low sitting over the Great Lakes will spin off a shortave trough that rotates from central Canada toward the OH/TN Valley region over the weekend. This will likely result in colder temperatures returning to the area early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Winds this afternoon will be gusty at times at CHA, potentially at TYS as well but the latter location is more likely to have sub-20 kt gusts occurring less frequently. Tonight, clouds will increase in the low levels, with MVFR cigs expected at CHA around 09Z, with TYS following a few hours later. TRI will have low VFR cigs spreading in late in the period, with potentially MVFR cigs after the end of this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 68 59 77 / 0 10 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 65 58 74 / 0 10 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 53 64 57 72 / 0 10 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 62 53 69 / 0 10 50 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.