textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 657 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day.

- Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning.

- A wet pattern will likely be in place this weekend and may pose a more widespread flooding threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The latest surface analysis shows that the boundary to our north has moved into the region and is over Northern Tennessee stretching back to a low in Arkansas. In the upper levels, a weak cut-off low or trough remains just to our west centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley today. This trough will slowly drift eastward into our region by Thursday. Showers and storms have mostly dissipated and it should remain quiet through the early morning hours according to the NBM and CAMs. Patchy fog is likely through the early morning hours mainly in locations that received a lot of rain the last couple of days.

By this afternoon, showers and storms will return with that boundary still lurking somewhere nearby and a trough just to the west. HRRR has isolated convection this afternoon but the rest of the CAMs look more scattered. NBM suggests isolated coverage in the Valley and more scattered in the higher terrain. Isolated flooding issues will be possible again today. PWAT values may be a tad lower today closer to 1.5 inches but steering flow will still be westerly and parallel to the boundary. Therefore, some training may occur. A few strong storms may produce some gusty winds with good instability and DCAPE values but the threat is too low for the SPC outlook. Another round of widespread showers and storms are expected on Thursday as the trough moves closer and remnants of the surface boundary linger.

Friday through the weekend a trough will be over the Eastern U.S. and a ridge will be building into the Central U.S. A series of minor waves moving through the pattern will bring multiple rounds of showers and storms possibly into the night. Friday through Saturday may pose a higher flood risk with high rain rates due to deep moisture and good instability. The wet pattern will continue through at least Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 657 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Fog has been ongoing at TRI this morning with the other sites maintaining VFR. This should lift within the next hour or two, giving way to VFR at all sites through much of the day. Scattered showers and storms are likely again by later this afternoon into the evening hours, but confidence is limited on if it will impact the terminals. The latest trends still suggest TYS and TRI to have better coverage, so PROB30s have been maintained. Winds will also be from generally a westerly direction at 5 to 10 kts. Overnight, fog is possible at TRI again, especially if rain falls, but this has been left out for the time being.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 72 90 73 / 30 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 88 72 / 40 40 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 88 71 / 60 30 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 85 68 / 30 60 70 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.