textproduct: Morristown
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 644 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026
- A weak system passing south of our area will bring rain Friday night and Saturday morning.
- Another warming trend is expected into next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026
A NW flow pattern with a trough off the Atlantic coastline will transition to a more zonal flow tonight and Friday. Warm advection at 850 mb will develop and bring warmer temperatures tonight and tomorrow, with Friday's highs reaching well into the 50s. Cloud cover will be increasing tomorrow with the warm advection pattern and midlevel isentropic lift ahead of a southern stream shortwave trough. By Friday evening the top-down moistening of the column should allow for light rain to reach the ground, starting in our SW corner and spreading up the TN Valley through the night. The latest NBM QPF amounts have come in lighter than previous runs, with a half to 3/4 inch in southern sections to a tenth to 1/4 inch in northern sections. The strongest forcing with this system stay in AL/GA, and any chance of thunderstorms should stay to our south. Precip will be tapering off through the day on Saturday, with decreasing clouds Saturday night.
By Sunday, broad ridging will develop over the Plains, with surface high pressure extending southward from the Great Lakes region. As the ridge aloft builds eastward and the surface high shifts to New England, temperatures will rise above normal through the early part of the week, reaching into the 60s by Tuesday. On Wednesday, a weak trough is expected to track far to our north and bring a chance for rain.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026
Predominant VFR conditions are expected for the TAF cycle. Slight enhancement of westerly low-level flow tonight could lead to pockets of LLWS across the region, though confidence was not high enough to include in TAF at this time. Throughout the period, upper level clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next system which will bring increasing rain chances Friday night.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 59 47 56 / 0 30 90 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 57 44 51 / 0 10 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 35 55 43 51 / 0 10 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 52 39 49 / 0 0 50 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
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