textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 728 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

- Another round of showers and storms for Monday into Monday night. A few storms may have gusty winds, and torrential downpours may cause flooding in some locations.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the forecast period.

- Conditions will also be notably humid for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

We stay in a wet pattern for much of the period. The weak frontal boundary to our north and northwest will meander a bit but not make much progress through mid-week, and deep south and southwest flow aloft will keep plenty of Gulf moisture feeding into our area.

The flood watch that has been in effect will not be extended at this time as the heavier precipitation is waning, and models suggest a lull before activity picks up again Monday afternoon and/or Monday evening in response to another weak impulse moving over the area and an uptick in upper divergence. However, exact timing of peak coverage is still uncertain. Models show PWAT values near 1.6- 1.9"inches (near daily max of KBNA sounding climatology) Monday, and shear generally looks low while mid level lapse rates are less than 6C/km. Rain rates should be high but the severe threat looks low with Monday's convection. However, enough instability may develop for us to see a few storms bring strong wind gusts in addition to very heavy downpours that could result in localized flooding.

As we move into mid-week, we will continue to see rounds of showers and storms with timing influenced by additional weak impulses in the flow, but with afternoons expected to see the highest chances overall. Localized flooding will be a concern for any areas that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain given the abundant moisture. While temperatures will generally be seasonable, the high dewpoints will lead to humid and sticky feeling conditions at least through mid week.

Higher uncertainty for the Thursday through Sunday period as models are not in good agreement. The frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into or possibly through our area, then will likely stall and nudge back north again. However, future timing and location of the front is still highly uncertain. Depending on how far south the front makes it, there may be a drier period especially north sometime in the Thursday/Friday time frame. However, overall, the NBM ensemble approach of keeping showers and storms in the forecast our area in the Thursday through Sunday time frame looks reasonable.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

CIGs are mostly MVFR across the region. Some patchy fog has been observed but conditions are already improving. VFR conditions will likely return by mid to late morning. Showers will likely end soon near TRI before developing again late this morning or early afternoon. The best chance for showers this afternoon will be near TRI, activity will be more isolated near TYS and CHA. Another round of showers and storms will move into the region this evening. The best chance for thunder will be near CHA. Thunder was left out for TRI and TYS but may be added later if confidence increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 66 81 66 / 90 80 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 65 81 66 / 80 90 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 79 64 80 64 / 70 90 80 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 62 81 63 / 70 80 80 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.