textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Scattered strong to severe storms likely today. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard, with potential for significant wind. Hail and flash flooding are lower, secondary risks.

- Unsettled and uncertain weather pattern over the next week, but likely a couple of dry days, too.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast through this morning as a shortwave moves through the Great Lakes. A broad trough will settle into the Midwest and Ohio Valley by this afternoon as the ridge over the Southeast weakens. At the surface, a weak cold front will move through the region this evening. CAMs are in good agreement that storms will develop ahead of the cold front this afternoon during max heating. Storms will develop around 2 PM EDT in the Cumberland Plateau and extreme Southeast Kentucky or Southwest Virginia. Storms will likely start as single cell or cluster but may become more linear in the late afternoon or evening. Instability will be high with dew points in the mid 70s and CAPE around 2000 to 3000 J/kg. HREF ensemble guidance keeps the highest CAPE along and west of I-75. Mid level lapse rates will be around 7 C/kg and low level lapse rates will be around 8 C/kg.

The main threat will be gusty straight-line winds with DCAPE values in the 1000 to 1300 J/kg range. Tornado potential will be very low with effective shear less than 20 knots and 0-1 km shear less than 10 knots. Some hail around one inch may be possible in the strongest storms but with a freezing level around 15k feet, large hail is not likely.

Some localized flooding will be possible in storms that are slow moving or training. PWATs will be around 1.8 to 2 inches. Overall the flooding threat seems low outside of the usual flood prone spots like urban areas.

Rain chances are low for Saturday behind the cold front. Temperatures and dew points will be slightly lower. The wet pattern returns on Sunday and may continue into early next week as a broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by Monday. The GFS has higher rain chances than the ECMWF in the Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday timeframe.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A few gusts to near 20 knots at TRI under good mixing conditions later today. Otherwise still expecting scattered showers and TS late this afternoon through early evening. Adding prevailing VCSH into the TYS and TRI TAFs in acknowledgement of forecast persistence. Weather will turn quiet again by or shortly after 3z tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 72 90 72 / 50 20 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 70 89 70 / 70 40 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 90 68 89 69 / 80 30 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 67 88 65 / 70 40 10 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.