textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Scattered rain showers this morning and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next week. Medium to high rain chances on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

With the arrival of a weak shortwave today expecting weak showers this morning followed by a few scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, in both the mountains and valley. Been curiously watching the CAMs flip flop run to run on extent of both the morning showers and afternoon storms, so I vote for the most widespread rain as Nature wants to bestow upon us, given the drought. Given the uncertainty even in the near term spread of guidance, wouldn't be expecting constant rain all day, a few periods of rain and scattered storms is a more reasonable expectation. Unfortunately this means there's bust potential for those who miss out on rain. Fortunately this isn't the last batch of rain.

With Sunday likely to be dry, we look towards next week for additional rain chances. Monday night has continued to look unimpressive, with the AI-IFS guidance indicating a really late overnight into Tuesday morning arrival times for storms. Long range NAM has a steep surface inversion should storms arrive that late, which would significantly alter storm severity and hazard type, though elevated strong convection could still occur. Still, given the breadth of convective solutions, it's really just a monitor and see on timing and CAPE profiles.

Heading into the midweek the upper jet re-strengthens and a slowly sagging cold front are likely to spur additional convection on Wednesday. The good news is multiple opportunities should eventually stack up and lead to decent rainfall results across a wide portion of the region, even if not every person scores in every round. The swiss cheese model of trying to escape drought via multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms. Even at the end of next week there's potential for a southern low to go riding along the southeastern front, yielding continued unsettled weather even if we're on the north side of the front by then. The longwave trough helping to push the front south also means cooler weather by the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Increasing rain chances are expected throughout the day with showers and storms developing in the afternoon hours. Outside of rain, VFR is expected to persist with MVFR or less likely within rain showers. Winds will be pretty light and from generally a southwesterly direction. Rain coverage will decrease overnight with fog possible in places that receive more rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 58 83 58 / 80 30 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 55 80 55 / 70 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 81 55 / 70 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 52 77 48 / 80 30 20 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.