textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 642 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Breezy southwesterly winds are expected later today through Thursday, especially in the higher elevations. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Smokies.

- Rain will return area-wide Wednesday night through Thursday with most places receiving between 1 and 2 inches.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Currently, the region is in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft with troughing to our east. Another shortwave/low pressure system is moving across the northern extent of the Great Lakes region with high pressure receding to our south. The increase in MSLP gradient and broad southwesterly 850mb flow. This will lead to increasingly breezy conditions across the region with high pressure promoting subsidence and low afternoon RH's. By this evening into the overnight period, the 40 to 50 kt 850mb jet will be to our west with a tightening MSLP gradient. This will make for continued breezy conditions overnight, especially across the higher elevations closer to the 850mb level. While downsloping is not expected in this setup, synoptic flow of over 40 kts will be more than sufficient for gusts near to above 40 mph across the higher elevations. Based on the high- res data, there is reasonably high confidence for a Wind Advisory in the Smokies starting late this evening. On Wednesday, the flow will become more westerly with increasing moisture arriving from the southwest. This will lead to a return of precipitation chances, especially later in the day. The thermal profile suggests temperatures to be above freezing near and below 850mb, keeping precipitation as all rain. The profile will also be cool enough to keep instability to our south. Ultimately, Wednesday night through Thursday will provide some much needed rain to the region with the ongoing drought. With the expected moisture and duration of rainfall, most places are likely to see between 1 and 2 inches.

By Friday, drier weather will return as high pressure builds back in from the north and west. A similar overall pattern will continue through the weekend as high pressure remains in control. Height rises will help temperatures rise back well into the 60s with some lower 70s in southern portions of the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Increased cloudiness and southwesterly winds expected through the overnight hours. A LLJ will increase out of the WSW during the overnight as well. LLWS in place at CHA and TRI. Gusty winds primarily at the SFC at TYS, will most likely prevent a LLWS set- up there. TAF lines for beyond 18z added to reflect CIG to MVFR levels, and the probability of precipitation. Rain will be the predominate precipitation type, given warmer temperatures Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 60 51 66 / 0 20 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 55 47 61 / 10 40 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 38 55 47 60 / 10 40 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 51 42 56 / 20 40 80 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.