textproduct: Morristown
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1247 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
- Widespread rain expected Saturday night through Sunday with 40 to 50% chance for an inch or more of rainfall.
- Dry and warmer next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1247 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
Not too many changes this morning with the weather forecast. Mild weather through this weekend becoming warmer next week as our well earned thaw continues. A weak upper low will undercut Tennessee over the weekend, with rain likely to hold off on Saturday until light rain chances begin sneaking in Saturday night thanks to the leading isentropic lift ahead of the low. Dry low level air should hold rain at bay, but anything that falls Saturday evening would be light. The vast bulk of the rain will fall on Sunday, with a 50% chance for over an inch of rain. Looking through the various deterministic guidance has different swaths of an inch of rain, north vs south vs western portions of the area. This is the best shot of rain through the next 7 days, and with severe drought, it is very much needed. Not seeing any significant mountain wind flow, though there may be some breezy winds on the Plateau Saturday night into Sunday morning, in spite of poor mixing.
Once the low moves out very early on Monday, a dry pattern sets up with a warming airmass thanks to higher upper heights setting up over the broader Mid South region. A couple of weak systems traverse the Eastern US over the course of next week, but only a weak cyclone late week next week carries low rain chances for us. Otherwise the warming trend will bring widespread 60s and 70s Tuesday and after.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
Quiet aviation conditions are expected to continue. Cloud cover will be limited to above 10,000 feet with light northeasterly winds of around 10 kts or less.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 35 63 50 / 0 0 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 31 60 45 / 0 0 10 70 Oak Ridge, TN 55 32 59 45 / 0 0 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 27 57 41 / 0 0 0 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
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