textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 257 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are likely on Monday, with the potential for strong/severe storms in the afternoon/evening.

- Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then, daily rain chances return late in the week, with temperatures near normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

An area of strong storms may weaken but move into the Plateau and southwest VA very early this morning before sunrise. Confidence is low but possible.

For Monday, a series of abnormally strong jets for mid-June will effect the area. The more northerly stream jet over the Ohio valley will start to produce increasing upper divergence over Tennessee valley in the afternoon with convection developing across the Plateau counties. This feature combined with another short-wave and jet over the mid and lower Mississippi River valley will combine to produce large scale forcing over the region from mid-afternoon into the evening hours.

The forcing combined with moderate instability with MLCAPES of 1500- 200 will produce at least scattered to broken areas of showers and thunderstorms. Due to DCAPES of 800-900 and PWs increasing to over 2 inches, strong downbursts winds are possible. Mid-level lapse rates are quite limited and less than 6 degrees so hail is not expected. Some of the CAMS suggest the potential of some backing of boundary layer winds across southeast Tennessee. This backing would increase the potential of brief spin-ups but this is a very low-end threat.

Another concern for late Monday afternoon and evening is the potential of flash flooding. Latest CAMS and deterministic models show PWs increasing to well over 2 inches which will be near the climo max for mid-June. Also, the increasing 850mb jet will produce strong moisture transport into the region. Storm motion will be in the 25+ knots but if an outflow boundary can line up along the corfidi vector (250-270 degrees) then training of storms are possible. Due to the very high PWs, rainfall rates will be quite high tomorrow.

For potential QPF amounts, latest REFS shows amounts over 2.5+ possible.

The forcing will move east of the area by early morning Tuesday ending the threat for showers and thunderstorms.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, besides some isolated storms across the far east Tennessee Mountains and southwest North Carolina, surface ridging and drier airmass will produce dry conditions.

For Thursday, increasing moisture and instability will produce an chance of mainly terrain afternoon and evening storms. Most of the valley will remain dry but isolated storm possible.

For Friday and Saturday, a northern stream short-wave will pull a frontal boundary into the southern Appalachians increasing the threat of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

For next Sunday, upper ridge will build back into the region with the frontal boundary lifting north. Coverage of storms will decrease but still scattered mainly afternoon and evening convection expected.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A brief period of low VFR to MVFR cigs are is expected mid to late morning. Otherwise, the focus for the TAF cycle will be increasing probability for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Reduced flight categories and frequent lightning will be possible with the strongest convection. Additionally, southwest winds will be in the range of 10-15kts with gusts up to 20-25kts this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 69 84 65 / 80 80 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 67 82 62 / 90 90 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 66 83 61 / 90 70 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 80 55 / 100 90 30 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.