textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 241 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected Saturday afternoon becoming more widespread Saturday night into Sunday morning along a cold front.

- Cold front this weekend will bring cooler temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

In the upper levels the southern Appalachians remain under influence of a ridge while troughing swings through the Mountain West into the Northern Plains. Isolated showers are possible in the mountains and foothills this afternoon, but most will remain dry with well above normal temperatures being the focus for the remainder of the day. Afternoon high temperatures look as though they will fall a few degrees shy of breaking any daily records. Quiet weather with mild temperatures overnight.

Cyclogenesis is expected beneath strong upper divergence as a sfc low progresses through the Ozarks and into the Great Lakes Region Saturday into Saturday night. Weak isentropic ascent and a vort lobe may promote some isolated to weakly scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon, with activity becoming increasingly widespread Saturday evening along and ahead of an approaching cold front.

The upr troughing will expand southward through the Ohio Valley and into the Tennessee Valley, giving way to moderate upper level support Saturday night. This will translate to the lower levels as a 40-45 kt swly LLJ develops atop the forecast area, and promotes gusty winds across the East Tennessee mountains. No wind advisory is expected at this time as the LLJ is more marginal, and the pressure gradient is weak with the sfc low so far to our north. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see those highest peaks, such as Cove Mountain, gusting to 40-45mph.

Regarding convective strength, latest hi-resolution guidance depicts the diurnal sfc inversion developing ahead of the front, suggesting this activity will struggle to remain surface based during an overnight passage. Some elevated instability will promote moderate to heavy downpours as the main axis of forcing swings through the region. The strongest storms could bring gusty winds upwards of 40mph, but severe chances look rather low due to the overnight timing.

Rain will gradually clear out Sunday morning, leading to a mostly dry and cooler Sunday afternoon. We settle into a drier period from here on out. A few instances of morning frost may be possible for northern and high elevation locations Mon-Wed, with Wed morning looking the most probable at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Southwest winds around 10kts, gusting to near 20kts at TYS, will gradually wane this evening. Winds will follow a similar diurnal pattern and intensity tomorrow afternoon. Brief period of low VFR/MVFR clouds possible near CHA tomorrow morning. Confidence not high enough to include predominant MVFR conditions at this time, but it may need to be considered with future issuances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 83 54 69 / 10 40 100 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 82 54 67 / 10 40 100 60 Oak Ridge, TN 61 81 53 67 / 0 30 100 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 80 54 65 / 10 50 90 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.