textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- Brief light snow with very little to no impacts is expected in the higher terrain of southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee mountains tonight.

- Cold conditions are expected Sunday into early next week, especially Monday night into Tuesday when below 0 wind chills will be possible in the higher elevations.

- Sunday through Wednesday will be dry, with chances for rain and snow again late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Scattered clouds paint regional satellite imagery as a reinforcing surface cold front spans through eastern KY southwestward into northern GA. Some light rain can be noted in vicinity of the front, but coverage and intensity are very limited due to the lack of moisture following last nights initial FROPA.

A vort max rounding the base of a trough atop the eastern half of the CONUS will aid the cold front through the region tonight. Very little to no impacts associated with new wintry precip are expected with the frontal passage. Light accumulations an inch or less are possible across the highest peaks of the East Tennesee mountains. A light rain/snow mix or flurries will be briefly possible across SW VA, far NE TN, and SW NC. Snowmelt from this previous afternoons snow in southwest Virginia may refreeze and create slick conditions for Sunday morning commuters, however, light winds this afternoon and tonight will help hinder how much moisture is available to refreeze.

By Sunday and into the new work week, focus will be on the below normal temperatures owing to a very anomalous trough expanding deep into the Gulf states. Monday night looks to be the coldest period. During this time, wind chills near or slightly below zero will be possible in the highest terrain of the Tennessee mountains and southwest Virginia. Low temperatures will be largely in the low teens with some places dipping into single digits.

Temperatures will undergo brief moderation Wednesday into the late week as H85 flow backs to the southwest and promotes weak WAA. Models begin to diverge in scenarios for the late week but it generally looks like precipitation chances make a return with an additional weaker frontal passage with light rain/snow Thu. A drier period would likely follow the front. Deterministic guidance have considerable differences in the strength and timing of an additional system over the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected this TAF cycle. The only exception is MVFR conditions are possible briefly near TRI as snow showers develop late this evening. Clouds will scatter out by morning at TYS and CHA. Clouds will scatter out by early afternoon at TRI as a cold front moves through the region. Winds will become more westerly tomorrow behind the front but will stay fairly light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 39 25 43 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 23 35 23 39 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 23 35 22 38 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 31 18 35 / 20 10 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.