textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 644 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are likely for the southern half of the region this afternoon and evening. Some isolated flooding issues will be possible mainly in flood prone spots and areas that received heavy rain the past few days.

- More typical summer weather Wednesday and Thursday with near normal temperatures and a chance of scattered thunderstorms mainly south of I-40.

- This weekend may bring back higher rain chances as a trough moves into the Eastern U.S.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The flooding threat is decreasing and the flood watch has been allowed to expire. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening mainly in the southern half of the region. In the upper levels, a ridge is centered over the Midwest and an inverted shortwave is near MS/AL. The stationary boundary is currently over Central or northern MS/AL/GA. Little to no movement is expected today. CAMs have showers and storms developing early this afternoon with best coverage in the south closer to Chattanooga with coverage more isolated near or north of Knoxville. Flooding issues will be possible mainly in flood prone spots and areas that have had heavy rain the past few days. Flooding issues, if any, will be isolated.

Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with afternoon showers and storms mainly south of I-40. Coverage may be more isolated. With lower rain chances, temps will be warmer and close to normal. Thursday looks like a repeat of isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly south of I-40. A ridge will extend from the Carolinas to the Lower Midwest by Thursday and remnants of the lingering surface boundary or a surface trough may be over the Tennessee Valley.

The pattern will change for this weekend as a trough digs into the East Coast, although weak this far south. At the surface, a boundary may move into the Ohio Valley. Better coverage of showers and storms can be expected Friday, Saturday and Sunday if this pattern holds.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the most part. There may be a brief period of MVFR CIGs this morning at CHA, and will include a tempo MVFR group there. MVFR cigs look likely to form again at CHA late in the period. Scattered showers and storms can be expected around CHA in the afternoon with a lower chance at TYS. Will keep the VCSH at TYS for now and the prob30 thunder group at CHA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 70 88 72 / 90 20 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 88 72 / 50 10 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 86 69 89 71 / 30 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 90 68 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.