textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 706 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Spring-like temperatures this weekend. Highs Sunday will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Widely scattered to scattered storms Saturday afternoon. Low-end potential of small hail with these thunderstorms. Confidence is too low to include within the HWO.

- Cooler airmass for early next week but still near to slightly above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Strong upper ridge across the Great Basin and troughing in the east with northwest flow aloft will be the predominant weather pattern throughout the forecast.

For Tonight through Friday night, dry northwest flow aloft with surface ridging slowly eroding and moving east. Warming trend will continue with low afternoon relative humidity in the 30s most locations Friday.

For Saturday, deterministic and ensemble models show a wave dropping southeast into the central and southern Appalachians. Increase in southwest boundary layer flow will pull moisture back into the region. Ensemble CAPE/Shear combo show enough instability for scattered afternoon convection. Depending on the low-level moisture return and mid-level lapse rates (around 6.5-6.7 degrees) some of the storms could produce small hail. Low confidence on this threat so did not include within the HWO.

For Sunday, this wave has moved east of the region with building heights producing an unseasonably warm day. Highs will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Here are the records for Sunday:

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 3-22 89(1907) 87(1907) 81(1938) 83(2011)

A stronger upper short-wave will move across Great Lakes into the northeast/Mid-atlantic states for Sunday night and early Monday. This wave will pull a frontal boundary southeast into the region. A chance of showers will accompany the front especially across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Ensemble QPF is pretty light and less than one-tenth inch.

Dry northwest flow for Monday night and Tuesday with more seasonal temperatures. Another fast moving wave in the northwest flow aloft is possible by mid-week next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 706 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR TAFs expected through the period. Light winds until southwest flow begins increasing tomorrow morning, with 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon area wide, with 25 knots possible at KTYS. Generally high cirrus clouds in the sky tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 77 53 83 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 72 54 79 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 40 72 52 79 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 67 51 72 / 0 10 20 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.