textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

- Rain chances return again by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Rainfall had mostly moved out of the forecast area this afternoon, though some lingering showers were still ongoing over the TN mountains and from the far southern TN valley eastward into our NC counties. Expect dry conditions area wide by 3-4 PM this afternoon, which will then last through the weekend before the next chance of rain arrives Sunday night into early next week.

For tonight, some uncertainty exists with respect to how much clearing we'll see, and subsequently whether any fog or low cloud development will take place. Lack of notable air mass change suggests we will see both, and the forecast and temperatures reflect that. Despite broad troughing over the eastern CONUS and TN valley, we'll see a notable warming trend over the weekend with temperatures pushing 10-15 degrees above normal.

The next chance of rain is late Sunday night into Monday as a weak southern stream disturbance slides east from the Ozarks, along or just north of the KY/TN border. This is a quick hitting system with no chances of severe storms or heavy rains to speak of. For the mid to latter parts of next week the upper pattern becomes more amplified, with a western trough and shortwaves ejecting northeast from the southern plains into the Ohio valley roughly speaking. Locally, I think there's fairly high uncertainty as to our rain chances, and certainly our chances for any heavy rains or thunderstorm activity, during this time. As noted, some guidance takes the Sun night/Mon disturbance eastward through Kentucky or even the southern Ohio valley area while others slide it east along the TN/KY line. The southern path opens the door for maybe a stalled frontal boundary over our area Tue into the mid week time frame before the upper pattern amplifies and we wind up in firmly on the dry side of an open warm sector. This would mean chances for rain lasting Monday into mid week before drying out. Either way we'll be significantly warmer than normal as heights begin to build over the southeast, but the more northern track Sun/Mon just means we'd likely be dry for much of next week and warmer still.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Confidence in the evolution of vis/cigs overnight is low, given a mix of low and high clouds, light winds, and a moist low level air mass. Will try to keep TAFs simple and amend as needed, but CHA is expected to have MVFR cigs through the night. TYS will be on the edge of clouds dammed up against the mountains, and may fluctuate between broken and scattered MVFR. MVFR clouds at TRI appear to be dissipating in the last hour, which suggests potential for fog later tonight. However, if winds stay above calm and high clouds increase, the fog may not develop. Amendments are likely.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 43 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 40 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 40 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 37 64 40 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.