textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 302 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

- Isolated showers and storms mainly along and south of I-40 this afternoon.

- Rain chances persist through the weekend, but a dry weather pattern develops next week among continued seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

As we head through the afternoon and evening a surface cold front will continue to sink through the CWA while influence of surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region nudges into the area. Some isolated to weakly scattered convection is expected along and south of the front this afternoon, with the best coverage south of I-40 and near the southern Cumberland Plateau. Most will remain dry. With light northeasterly winds post FROPA, there are no notable concerns for widespread fog overnight despite recent rains.

Mostly dry conditions are expected for Friday morning or perhaps the early afternoon. By Friday evening, an impulse will traverse mean flow aloft and direct the aforementioned front back northward. Increasing chances for additional showers and storms make a return Friday evening/night and into Saturday as this front meanders the area. PWAT will return to 90th percentile values and latest HRRR soundings depict tall and skinny CAPE profiles with freezing levels near 14kft, suggesting the potential for isolated flooding concerns where any heavy downpours train over one location. Most likely locations for this would be along and south of I-40.

The Sunday and Monday forecast features continued chances for precip(30-50%), albeit, a bit more uncertain. Long range guidance is more bullish as a trough axis moves through the region, where as the latest NAM, which just reaches into this time period, is starting to suggest a drier solution with shortwave ridging being more influential. Believe there is some potential the PoP chances trend downward during this time frame. Going into the mid-week, models are in pretty good agreement of a typical omega-block pattern becoming more prominent. The increased subsidence aloft will influence drier conditions among seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Predominant VFR conditions are expected for the TAF cycle. A cold front is currently moving through the forecast area, and there will be a brief period this afternoon where a quick shower could impact TYS and perhaps isolated lightning/thunder near CHA. Winds will be light and out of the northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 83 66 81 / 10 40 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 86 66 79 / 0 30 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 62 85 65 79 / 0 20 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 85 60 80 / 0 0 20 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.