textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 227 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Multiple waves of showers and storms will move through the region throughout the day possibly starting early this morning.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible today through tomorrow. The primary threat will be gusty winds.

- The wet pattern will continue through the weekend, which may pose a more widespread flooding threat, starting today. A Flood Watch is in effect through Sunday evening.

- Dry weather returns for the middle of next week with near normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

In the upper levels, a trough is over the Eastern U.S. and a ridge is over the west. At the surface, a slow moving cold front is currently near the Great Lakes. By this afternoon, this boundary is expected to move into the Ohio Valley near IL/IN/OH and by Saturday should be near the Ohio River. A strong shortwave is near IA/MO/IL. This shortwave will slowly move into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday night or Sunday. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will move through the region possibly starting early this morning. Currently there is a line of strong storms moving into Middle Tennessee. These storms are starting to weaken and expected to mostly dissipate before reaching the region. Some showers and storms may kick off ahead of this line along an outflow boundary but would likely be sub-severe if that happens.

Confidence is low in timing of storms today. Multiple waves are likely but there will be lulls at times. Flooding issues will be possible and strong to severe storms will also be possible especially this evening. Instability will be best in the afternoon/evening hours with CAPE around 1000 to 2000 J/kg. The primary threat will be gusty winds especially if a MCS develops upstream and moves into the region. CAMs are hinting at the possibility of an organized line this evening or into the overnight hours. Better confidence in a few strong to severe storms or clusters in the late afternoon or evening hours. The flooding threat is increasing today. A Flood Watch is in effect starting early this afternoon through Sunday evening. PWAT values will be around 1.75 to 2 inches by this evening. Waves of activity should be progressive but with multiple rounds of heavy rain expected at times some flooding issues are likely.

Saturday looks like more of the same with the shortwave and surface boundary closer to the region. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will be expected once again and may not follow the diurnal rules. Again a few strong to severe storms will be likely and an organized line or MCS at some point cannot be ruled out. Low confidence in timing of each round of activity. Gusty winds will be the primary threat. The flooding threat increases by Saturday. PWATs may be a tad higher and many locations will already have saturated soils. Also, trees will fall more easily in saturated soils.

By Sunday, the slow moving boundary will likely be over the region and the wet pattern will continue. By Monday, rain chances will be highest south of I-40 as the boundary will likely be near the GA/TN border. Much drier conditions are expected Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

There will be rounds of showers and thunderstorms, although exact timing of the thunderstorms is still very uncertain. Will try to time periods of the highest probability for storms with VCTS and prob30 thunder groups, but thunder will be possible outside of these times as well. Conditions are expected to be mainly VFR outside of the storms. However, a more persistent period of MVFR cigs may occur especially TRI later in the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 73 88 71 / 60 80 80 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 71 84 70 / 90 100 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 85 70 85 69 / 90 90 70 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 67 81 66 / 100 90 90 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley- Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger- Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox- Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Sunday evening for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.