textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 739 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Showers and storms expected tomorrow, and a few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Currently another warm day with temperatures back up in the 80s for most of the region with an afternoon of small cumulus out there. Expect mostly dry weather today along with temperatures and dew points a couple of degrees lower than yesterday helping to take the edge off the mugginess. We could see a few showers develop during the peak heating of the day, with the best chances being across the higher terrain of the Appalachians.

Tomorrow will see the return of rain chances as front moves in from the northwest to help try and spark off thunderstorms during the day ahead of it. Environment ahead of the front looks to destabilize a decent amount with ample heating and dew points into the mid 70's with southerly winds near the surface. Forecast soundings indicate there should be 1000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the area, and possibly over 2000 in southeast TN by the afternoon hours. There will be some minor speed shear, but the biggest threat with the strong to possibly severe storms tomorrow would be damaging winds under collapsing storms. Some of the CAMs are trying to congeal the mid afternoon convection across far east/southeast TN and NC into a MCS... Which if that does happens means we still would have damaging winds as the primary hazard, but we would expect to see more widespread wind damage with an MCS. Biggest unknown right now is how robust is the morning convection... If there's widespread morning convection this could stabilize the atmosphere and throw out some clouds to help cut down on the solar heating later in the day. So we have moderate confidence on more widespread storms firing off at some point tomorrow, but lower confidence on the severity of them until we see what the atmosphere looks like in the late morning hours.

Cooler and likely dry weather will be in store to start off the week as the front sits across the southern Tennessee Valley. The overall troughiness over much of the eastern US will help to moderate temperatures for much of the week with highs looking to be in the mid to low 80's for most days next week. Towards the back half of the work week a few systems will try and traverse across the Ohio Valley which could phase with the southern stream systems bringing more chances for widespread showers and storms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions among light winds and increasing high clouds upstream of on-going convection entering into Middle Tennessee are largely expected tonight. Introduce VCSH/SHRA at sites from west to east tomorrow morning as remnants from this activity moves eastward and tries to re-initiate. A lull in activity is expected before additional scattered showers and storms develop in the afternoon and evening. Have included PROB30s to highlight most likely times to have a potential storm impact terminals. Winds will be from the southwest around 10-15kts tomorrow afternoon, with occasional gusts up to 20kts possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 68 82 / 20 80 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 88 65 81 / 10 100 70 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 64 81 / 20 100 40 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 87 62 79 / 0 90 80 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.