textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- Regular warm to hot August temperatures to continue, with on and off rain and thunderstorm chances returning Thursday and continuing into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

We will see some minor relief next two days, with a return to typical summertime temperatures and a drop in the overall PWAT for the atmosphere. PWATs drop down to 1.2" or so, which is just above the 25th percentile for August, a time of year in which we're at the climatological maximum for vertical water content. Since the upper heights are otherwise fairly flat, we only return to near or slightly above typical highs for August, so not sure how much jumping for joy our anti-humidity cabal will be doing this week. We will also likely remain dry the next two days, with surface ridging overhead and no obvious discernible source of forcing to get us storm development.

Unfortunately we get another shortwave to arrive on Thursday, which has the side effect of re-introducing more rain and storm chances to our region, with higher chances in the north. 30 to 40 knots of shear exist Thursday into Thursday night, GFS and long range RRFS both depict a dying storm cluster early on Thursday to our west, then a lull likely from cloud debris, then potential for scattered PM and late night thunderstorms. Whether or not that scenario comes to fruition is an unknown. CAPE is a bit of a question, though depending on how the morning goes we may realize more CAPE than the low-biased GFS depicts. Shear profiles are more favorable for strong winds. Something to watch, anyways. Scattered rain and storms then will likely remain in the forecast into the weekend, as a series of shortwaves occur before a large trough digs into the Great Lakes and then the northeastern US Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 144 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The threat for precip/lightning from earlier is well over. Low CIG and VSBY possible through the early morning hours, with the worst conditions most likely at TRI. CHA may walk the line of VFR and MVFR. Once CIG break and lift later on this morning, VFR will dominate with dry weather anticipated under strengthening surface high pressure.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 69 95 74 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 68 92 71 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 66 91 71 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 64 88 67 / 10 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.