textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 212 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Very hot conditions continue into Monday, especially south and central valley areas.

-Showers and storms will move through the area on Monday, and some may be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat.

-Drier and not quite as hot mid week, then chances for showers and storms increase again Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

It remains hot across the area and tomorrow will be another hot day. Surface dew points have mixed out enough that heat index values are struggling to reach 105, and this may occur again Monday. However, will keep the heat advisory over portions of the south and central west of the mountains as it is for now.

A few isolated showers or thunderstorms remain possible across southwest VA and the NE TN mountains this afternoon, but the models keep things suppressed overall. There is a low threat that a cell could become strong enough to produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Some CAMs indicate remnants of an MCS could potentially clip portions of southwest Virginia overnight. Given the overnight timing the severe threat looks limited, so if this occurs the potential for flooding would be the main concern especially if training were to occur along a slow moving outflow boundary.

For Monday, models show a weak summertime front moving toward us later in the day as weak upper level short wave energy approaches. Showers and storms will fire ahead of this boundary. Given MLCAPES likely in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, high PW values, steep low level lapse rates, and around 25 to 30 kt of effective shear, there is potential for organized clusters of convection that may produce damaging winds Monday afternoon and/or evening. Models have been in flux on how the lower levels of the hodograph will look as the convection moves in, but right now the threat of a brief tornado looks very low but non-zero. Given the wet soils across much of the area especially northeastern half, any prolonged or repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding as well.

Models generally show drying for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame behind the weak frontal boundary, although a few still have some isolated weak convection around Tuesday mainly east and mountains. Both days will still be on the hot side, but the heat should be less oppressive than what we have seen this weekend.

By Thursday into the weekend, heights fall again over the region as the upper level eastern US trough deepens. Chances for showers and storms will increase again with temperatures trending down a bit lower with highs near seasonal normals for Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Predominant VFR conditions and west winds 10kts or less for the period. A few showers may be in vicinity of TRI this afternoon, with very low confidence on the potential for thunder. Based on latest radar trends have kept just mention of vcsh at the time. If a shower happens to impact the terminal that would increase the chance for potential fog Monday morning. Shower and storm chances will return just outside of the current TAF cycle tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 99 75 95 / 0 40 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 95 73 91 / 0 60 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 74 94 72 91 / 0 50 30 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 89 69 86 / 20 80 50 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Monday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Sequatchie-West Polk.

VA...NONE.