textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 231 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

- Very warm temperatures Today and Wednesday with highs roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- Increasing chances for showers and storms return Wednesday, with continued chances each day into the weekend, especially across the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Mostly dry today, NBM has no POPS, but can't rule out a few isolated afternoon/evening showers and storms. Otherwise, very warm with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Near record highs at TYS and TRI.

On Wednesday, models still show a short-wave trough pushing the ridge east and opening the door for a frontal passage. Showers and storms will increase in coverage in response to the lower heights and higher moisture. Highest POPs will be across the east TN mountains and Cumberland plateau. REFS and LREF instability probs show high odds that CAPE values will be less than 1000 J/kg. Combine this with mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees or less and little to no shear, severe storms are not expected.

On Thursday the frontal boundary lifts north and back into the area and provides focus for more showers and storms. The highest POPs will reside along the frontal boundary. It's hard to say exactly where it will be within our area. Instability and shear once again remain limited, so no severe threat for Thursday either.

For Friday, ridging returns and the frontal boundary lifts north into KY. However, plenty of moisture and instability remains so scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again expected.

No real changes during the weekend into early next week period. We will continue to have an unsettled pattern in place with an environment conducive to daily showers and storms. Overall, the severe threat remains low during this time due to lack of shear.

QPF through the period will be very hit or miss. Some areas may see several inches of rain over the next 7 days while some see far less. This is due to the scattered nature of the convection.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

VFR and dry weather expected. An isolated shower or storm is possible, but like yesterday, coverage will be too minimal for inclusion. Otherwise generally light winds, a gust to 15 knots is possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 68 89 66 / 10 0 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 68 89 66 / 0 0 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 89 65 87 64 / 0 0 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 63 87 63 / 0 0 50 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.