textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 247 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Lingering showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two will exit early this morning.

- Dry weather can be expected for most through Thursday, then chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast later in the week.

- A hot and drier pattern looks likely as we head into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder will be diminishing by late tonight. Localized minor flooding will be the main threat over the next two or three hours, but overall the threat has significantly dimished with rainrates trending down. A few showers may linger into at least Tuesday morning especially north and mountains, but drier and slightly cooler air will be moving in during the day as surface high pressure builds in behind the departing cold front. Wednesday should be dry and a bit warmer than Tuesday, but still with temperatures a bit below seasonal normals, and Thursday will be warmer but likely still dry.

For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft and the potential for short wave energy to bring some showers and storms, although timing of these short wave features is still uncertain. Right now, the Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have the highest chances for showers and storms. The details are still too much in flux for any confidence in severe storm chances, although ensemble data shows a relatively weak signal for significant combined shear/CAPE. This will of course bear watching as we get closer.

As we head into the beginning of next week we will see an upper ridge building over the area, with hotter and drier conditions developing over our area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers will gradually taper off from west to east during the overnight hours. The probability for thunder is very low from this point onward, so mentions have been omitted. Low VFR to MVFR conditions are expected to persist into the morning, gradually improving late morning into the early afternoon. Winds will be veering to the northwest this afternoon, with speeds between 8 to 13 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 59 83 62 / 30 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 58 83 62 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 54 81 58 / 40 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.