textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 738 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will continue today and tomorrow, mainly south of Interstate 40.

- More widespread showers and storms are expected Friday through the weekend. A few stronger storms and isolated flooding are possible.

- Temperatures will be generally near normal through the period with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Currently, a 5,960m high is centered near the upper Mississippi River Valley with a weak area of low pressure near Arkansas to West Tennessee. With better moisture, showers have continued in southern portions of the area, moving to the west or northwest due to mean flow. Low-end instability will keep potential for isolated storms but still insufficient coverage and intensity for much flooding concern. By Thursday, the upper high will weaken some but progress right over northern portions of the region, increasing temperatures and slightly decreasing southern rain chances compared to today.

By Friday, troughing to the north will slightly deepen with the upper high pushing off to our east. An area of low pressure will also progress out of the northern Great Plains. Overall instability and coverage of showers and storms will increase significantly, given this pattern. By Saturday, this low will move into the Great Lakes with its front sagging southward later in the weekend. The flow will also become more northwesterly by Sunday as troughing tracks to the northeast. This will keep coverage of showers and storms more elevated than in recent days. While models still differ, instability could be sufficient for a few stronger storms. Isolated flooding will also come back into view, but thankfully rain will be limited in the next couple of days.

By early next week, most sources keep the frontal boundary north of the region and an overall similar upper-level pattern. However, high pressure tracking to our north will bring drier air to the region than the weekend. Some rain chances still remain, but the overall trend will be for coverage and intensity similar to today and tomorrow.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Very ISOLD SHRA out there that may not even impact terminals the rest of the day. Calm night ahead with the returned possibility of fog and/or low CIG at CHA and TYS during the early morning hours. Confidence not all that high on timing and occurrence. Guidance suggests the same at TRI, but with no rainfall and no impacts to CIG or VSBY this morning, leaned with keeping out. Due to much like the same tomorrow as today when it comes to showers and a possible storm, PROB30 or any other mention not added because of the degree of isolation/probability.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 73 91 / 0 30 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 91 74 90 / 10 20 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 72 90 73 90 / 10 20 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 92 71 92 / 0 0 10 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.