textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 228 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Very heavy rainfall rates and an increased risk for flash flooding is expected today, especially over East Tennessee and potentially southwest North Carolina.

- Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the remainder of the work week especially in the afternoon/evening hours. A low risk exists for localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Still looking like today will be the most likely timeframe of the week for flash flooding, but it is by no means a certainty to see flooding. The presence of near record precipitable water values, combined with the weak upper troughing, should allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms. CAMs have been pretty persistent in showing this scenario, even if their direct QPF output isn't necessarily worrying. Still though, with the highly saturated environment, tall skinny CAPE profiles, and high freezing levels will allow for generous hydrometeor production (fancy talk for lots of rain drops). WPC's excessive rain outlook has us in a slight risk, which seems pretty reasonable given the CAMs' persistent scattered nature. Storms may begin firing early this morning and then chances will remain high for much of the day, before sunset likely brings about widespread dissipation of the storms. Shear values are pretty low given the overall weak wind profiles above us, so not expecting severe thunderstorms.

As we progress through the week, we'll keep our muggy atmospheric profiles, but we'll gradually lose the little forcing we have as ridging builds aloft. Guidance struggles to fire anything on Thursday, and that may well be the lull day of the week in terms of coverage. The other days all have low to medium high chances for at least some scattered activity, though terrain may be what fires first before the valley later into the afternoons. Given the high moisture content hanging around, a non-zero flood risk will exist for the week as well. As we hit the weekend we'll be looking for signs of any upper support from the jet to our north over the Great Lakes or any weak shortwaves in the flow aloft to help bring relief or a pause in the June weather.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

We will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms around early in the period, then they will diminish before chances trend upward again late in period. Highest chances overall look to be at CHA and TYS. Will have mainly VFR/MVFR conditions in the forecast, although the details are uncertain and IFR (or lower) conditions will be possible at times at least briefly. Will try to time the periods with the higher thunderstorm probabilities with prob30 and tempo groups.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 69 85 69 / 90 60 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 68 84 69 / 90 40 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 80 68 83 68 / 90 40 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 67 83 66 / 70 40 70 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for Anderson- Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne- Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton- Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn- Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.