textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- A few isolated strong storms possible through this evening.

- Very warm through Saturday. 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Chances for PM showers and storms through Friday, with greater coverage across the higher elevations. Better chances for more widespread showers expected late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

- Cold front late weekend will bring cooler temperatures early next week. Frost possible Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are ongoing across the area. This activity will continue through this evening. The greatest threat for an isolated strong storm will be along the TN/KY state line and into southwest VA. These areas are where weak, effective, 0-6km shear of around 15kts overlaps with moderate instability. There is a low probability of an isolated damaging wind gust across these area along with small hail. The higher shear values will remain further north into KY through the rest of today. A few strong storms will also be possible elsewhere due to the moderate instability, but again low probability of any severe weather.

With the strong ridge of high pressure in place to our east, the above normal warmth continues tomorrow through Saturday. Additional chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms will be in place each day. No severe weather is expected due to the absence of shear.

A cold front will reach the forecast area sometime late Saturday into early Sunday. The overall severe threat continues to remain low due to the expected timing (overnight arrival) of the showers and storms and thus limited instability. Though no SPC outlooks are in place at the moment, WPC continues to highlight a MRGL risk (5% probability) for flash flooding for the now Day 4 period. Current NBM probs for at least 1 inch of rain with the frontal passage range from 35 to 55% for most areas. Lower probs of 15 to 25% are in place across northeast TN and portions of southwest VA.

Following the front, cooler more seasonable temperatures beginning Easter Sunday to kick start the first full week of April. A dry few days may set in with low afternoon RHs, so a possible return of enhanced fire danger. Frost development may even be possible some mornings early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Isolated to scattered showers through this evening. PROB30 in at TYS and TRI for TSRA and MVFR. Outside of any thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected. However, if any site receives rainfall, MVFR or lower ceilings are possible overnight. Gusty winds through this evening at TYS out of the south-southwest at around 20kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 85 63 83 / 10 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 84 63 82 / 20 30 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 59 84 63 82 / 20 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 82 57 81 / 20 30 0 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.