textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 734 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in the TN mountains and SW NC; some may be strong to severe.

- Very hot temperatures continue with afternoon heat index values around or above 100 degrees in most valley locations; Heat Advisory in effect through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Convective activity yesterday was rather subdued outside the mountains and SW NC, likely due to a stronger cap that inhibited vertical development. Today is expected to be pretty similar, with a capped environment across most of the TN Valley and SW VA under a high pressure ridge, but with some convection breaking through over the higher terrain. There will also be a 300 mb low tracking from the Atlantic into the Southeast on the southern edge of the ridge that will aid in divergence aloft across GA/AL, and possibly our southern sections. CAMS are in general agreement that most of the activity this afternoon will be in SW NC and the southern TN Valley, although they differ in the extent of coverage. Storms that are able to develop could become strong with plenty of CAPE to feed off of, capable of small hail and strong wind gusts. Thursday looks similar to today with southern sections and the mountains having the chance of showers/storms where capping is weaker on the southern side of the ridge.

A Heat Advisory continues in effect from today through Friday. Heat index values around or above 100 will be common in the afternoons, and heat index values may exceed 105 in some spots. It is possible that the Heat Advisory could be extended one more day into Saturday.

From Sunday onward, we should see a downward trend of high temperatures with an upward trend in PoPs as the large ridge begins to weaken and drift east, allowing shortwave disturbances to cross the area from the west.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Clear and calm nights expected. Fog currently at TRI shouldn't last too much longer with the sun now up. Chances return there tonight, so MVFR VSBY line added. SHRA/TSRA may develop over parts of the SE later this afternoon. PROB30 remains at CHA. Certainty is a bit low for if TYS will see anything, but added a PROB30 this update to reflect the possible chance. Models hint at fog development at CHA tonight, but will wait and see if they get precipitation today first.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 98 77 99 76 / 20 10 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 95 75 96 74 / 10 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 96 75 97 75 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 95 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Friday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ Friday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne- Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton- Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn- Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Friday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA- Washington VA-Wise.