textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Dry weather is expected through Friday with daytime highs rising well into the 70s and 80s.

- Tropical Storm Isaias will move north into the Tennessee valley this weekend. Heavy rains are possible for the Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina for Saturday and Saturday night.

- Strong and gusty winds are likely area-wide for Saturday and Saturday night with High Winds over the far east Tennessee Mountains and Foothills, and southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Surface and upper ridge for Thursday and Friday producing unseasonably warm and dry conditions. Temperatures will be near 10 degrees above normal.

Main weather message is the developing Tropical Storm Isaias which is forecast become a Hurricane before making landfall across the central Gulf Coast sometime Friday evening. This storm will move quickly north due to phasing with an upper trough moving north as well. Latest Tropical deterministic and ensemble models are showing path forecast converging with a northward movement of the surface low into west/middle Tennessee for Saturday. The storm moves quickly northeast into the eastern Ohio valley for Sunday.

Given the current path the expected impacts are as follows for Saturday through Sunday morning:

1. Locally heavy rainfall possible beginning Saturday for mainly the Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina. Downslope winds into the northern and central Tennessee valley will limit the QPF elsewhere.

2. Developing high winds for Saturday. Depending on how fast Isaias moves north could begin before daybreak across southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Due to the pressure gradient from surface wedging over the Carolinas and Isaias, mountain wave high winds look likely for the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills possibly in excess of 70 mph.

3. For the rest of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia and southwest North Carolina, winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are possible. Higher gusts over the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee counties are likely. Higher elevations around the Chattanooga area could see gusts by daybreak Saturday in excess of 60 mph, especially Lookout and Signal mountains.

For Saturday, instability is quite limited and elevated so severe storms are not anticipated.

For Sunday, remnants of Isaias moves north and northeast of the region with chance of showers continuing.

For Monday through Wednesday, upper and surface ridging builds into the region with return of sunshine and drier conditions.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Clear skies and light winds will allow for fog to develop throughout river valleys early this morning. HREF probabilities for vis between 1 and 3 miles ranges from 30 to 50% in vicinity of KTRI, thus, have included a brief tempo to account for this. Otherwise, VFR conditions with northerly winds less than 10kts are expected for the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 59 84 62 / 0 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 55 82 59 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 48 81 55 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.