textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 727 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

-Gusty winds expected in portions of the East Tennessee mountains and adjacent foothills through early this morning. A Wind Advisory is still in effect.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the forecast period.

-Warm and muggy conditions with no relief in sight until possibly next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Warm, muggy, and the unsettled pattern will continue through much of the forecast period. No real substantial chances to the synoptic pattern until possibly next weekend. A frontal boundary will be draped across the region or either to the north or south of us for the coming days.

An increasing LLJ throughout the day yesterday was one of the main drivers for the severe weather experienced. It is also the main driver for the gusty winds currently being recorded over the higher terrain at this time. It isn't as strong as what we could typically see in the winter with a stout wedge setup on the other side of the mountains. But just enough low level southerly to SSE flow over the mountains is creating around 45 mph gusts. Camp Creek has gusted as high as 50 mph, but gusts can mainly be expected to remain in the 40 mph range through early this morning. The LLJ is expected to move off to the north and essentially dampen our severe weather threat for later today.

For later today severe weather-wise, not expecting any storms to get as strong. The low level shear will be nearly absent. The SPC has yet to put out the Day 1 Outlook at the time of this discussion, but we're not expecting them to extend the MRGL from the Carolina's into our area. General thunderstorms seem valid. All the other parameters observed on a forecast sounding would be indicative of short lived cells capable of gusts, lightning, and heavy rain resulting in localized flooding. PWs above 1.5", dews in the 70s, CAPEs above 1000, and frontal boundarys nearby, will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today and pretty much the entire holiday weekend. Temperatures will remain the same, outside of a shower bringing temps down temporarily, in the coming days.

We may transition into a different weather pattern next weekend just outside of the forecast period, when what appears to be troughing trying to sink down from the north and east, sending upper heights downward. Interestingly enough, the CPC beyond the forecast out to early June, hints at temperatures near normal with perhaps just below normal to the SE.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

CIGs are a mix of VFR and MVFR across the region. MVFR CIGs are likely at all terminals by mid morning. Showers are isolated currently but activity will increase later this morning continuing through the afternoon/evening hours. Isolated thunder is also possible mainly in the afternoon/evening hours. VFR conditions will likely return outside of heavy showers this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 64 83 66 / 80 60 50 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 63 83 64 / 90 60 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 79 62 83 63 / 90 70 60 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 61 83 61 / 90 50 60 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.