textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 219 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

- Chilly tonight,then a warming trend with very warm conditions by Sunday through early next week.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms arrives by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

We start the period with an upper trough centered to our east and a ridge to our west. After a cool afternoon today, tonight will see temperatures dip into the lower to mid 40s in most locations and a few spots may see lows in the upper 30s. Friday will be a bit warmer with highs not far from seasonal normals. Also, relative humidity values will be quite low Friday afternoon.

Upper ridging will build over the eastern CONUS through the weekend and into early next week bringing a significant warm up for our area, and continued surface ridging across the southeast will keep Gulf moisture return limited. Mostly dry and very warm conditions are anticipated for Saturday through Tuesday. High temperatures will make a run at 90 degrees across much of the valley during the Sunday through Tuesday time frame, and may reach or exceed 90 in some locations. There may be enough moisture return by Tuesday for a few showers or storms in the afternoon, especially over the terrain.

By Wednesday and Thursday models show the upper ridge weakening and moisture increasing over the region. While the details are uncertain that far out models generally show some short wave energy moving through and a weak cold front sagging slowly toward the area from the north and northwest, leading to an increase in coverage of showers and storms for Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Possible fog development toward sunrise especially TRI is the only concern, but right now the probability of restricted visibility looks too low to warrant inclusion. Will have a VFR forecast for the period all sites. Winds will be north and northwest around 10kts to start, then will generally be light after sunset this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 80 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 78 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 43 78 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 75 50 82 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.