textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 701 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

- Multiple rounds of showers with some scattered thunderstorms through Saturday. The primary threats with storms both Friday and Saturday will be strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

-Gusty winds in the some of the higher elevations and foothills Friday and especially Friday night.

- A wet weather pattern persists through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

South to southwest flow aloft will continue to bring Gulf moisture into our area as we move into the weekend. The weak frontal boundary just to our north and west will vacillate but will be slow to make much progress through Saturday. In addition, weak short wave impulses will move across the area Friday and again Saturday. Given the abundance of moisture available, we will see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The low level jet will increase enough for shear to be a concern both days but especially Friday. The severe threat will be contingent on if enough convective energy is able to develop, and the timing and coverage of precipitation during the day could inhibit diurnal heating although confidence in these details is still lacking. For now, HREF ensemble mean SBCAPE values exceed 1000 J/kg over much of the southwestern two thirds of our area Friday, and the marginal risk of severe storms with damaging winds the primary threat for Friday remains. A few strong to marginally severe storms may occur Saturday as well with strong winds again the primary threat. In addition, heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding especially if repeated heavy downpours occur over any given location.

The pressure gradient will increase across the NC/TN border Friday and Friday night as surface ridging noses down east of the mountains and surface low pressure tracks by to our west. Models generally show southerly low level winds increasing across the mountains with 850mb winds reaching the 25 to 40 kt range for a brief time tonight. Mountain wave enhancement of the winds will likely bring gusty winds to the usual higher elevation and foothill locations of the E TN mountain. It still looks marginal for a wind advisory so none will be issued as yet, but it will bear watching especially for Friday night.

For Sunday through Thursday, a wet pattern will continue as the deep S to SW flow remains over the region. Timing of showers and storms will depend on disturbances in the flow and surface boundaries in the area, which are difficult to resolve at this time. High PoPs with low to moderate chances of thunderstorms appear to be warranted in this pattern.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Waves of showers and storms will move through the region throughout this TAF cycle. CIGs are a mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR across the region. CIGs will keep lowering this morning, remaining MVFR through the day. The best chance for thunder at all sites will be this afternoon and evening but thunder will be possible anytime.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 65 82 65 / 100 70 90 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 65 81 64 / 90 90 100 50 Oak Ridge, TN 77 63 80 62 / 100 80 100 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 61 80 61 / 90 80 100 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.