textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Still chilly today, then a gradual warming trend will accompany an extended period of dry weather throughout the coming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

It is still quite cool today, and the stubborn clouds over our northeast counties will eventually erode later today into this evening. The mostly clear sky for much of the night along with light winds will allow overnight temperatures to dip to near or below freezing across the entire area.

The upper trough that is currently edging off the east coast will continue to retreat, and our weather for the coming week will be dominated by surface high pressure and an upper ridge that builds in from the west. We will see dry weather along with a warming trend. After a cool start to the week, we will see temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the latter part of the week.

There are some model solutions that show rain coming back into our area next weekend. However, given the very poor model agreement/run to run consistency and the usual long range timing uncertainties, the ensemble approach of the NBM which keeps us mainly dry through Sunday looks reasonable.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

The low VFR/MVFR cigs at TRI will gradually lift and erode over this afternoon/evening. Given the clearing sky, light winds, and the cold air over the warm water in proximity of TRI overnight, fog will likely form over the lake and may drift over the terminal at TRI although right now the probability of impacts looks to low to include in the TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 59 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 33 60 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 57 29 62 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.