textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 655 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Daily scattered showers and thunderstorm chances, with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Risk for urban and low lying flooding during any bout of heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

As we start the new work week the July summer pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms looks to remain. A weak shortwave will hang out to our west over the Mississippi River through Wednesday before it lifts off into a broader trough, and then by the weekend a weak front may be stationary to our north over the Ohio River valley.

Locally fairly constant ridge heights with some wavering in intensity will keep temperatures close to typical July heat. Our vertical moisture profiles look to remain fairly saturated, with PWAT values each day around 1.7 to nearly 2 inches. With storm motions generally still on the slower side, efficient and heavy rainfall will yield quick accumulations, potentially similar to what we've already seen the last couple of days. So, flood risk will be present depending on how the storms form, congeal, and what they move over.

As far as severity, there's not too much in the way of shear, and the highly saturated airmass likely keeps overall CAPE sufficient for tall thunderstorms, so wet downbursts are the most likely hazard, small hail in the stronger storms. The good news is activity still seems to be mainly diurnal, since we lack any significant forcing for the bulk of the week, so each day isn't a total washout, just be lightning aware during peak heating in the afternoon when storms will be trying to form and rain out again. When we get to the weekend, an upper trough passing through the Great Lakes may try to extend a front down here, which would provide a more organized or widespread mechanism for storms. But, that's still a few days out. In the mean time, the heartbeat of summer continues.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Morning fog and low clouds have developed at CHA and will gradually lift within the next hour or two, leading to VFR as expected at the remaining sites. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop again by mid to late afternoon and continue into the early evening hours. Currently, the coverage looks to be more at TYS and TRI, so VCTS was included, in addition to the TEMPO group. Reductions to MVFR or less can be expected within showers and storms. Southwesterly winds of 10 kts or less can be expected through the day, becoming light and variable overnight. Fog is possible in places that see rain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 90 73 / 70 20 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 88 72 / 70 40 60 30 Oak Ridge, TN 90 71 88 71 / 60 30 70 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 68 86 68 / 60 30 80 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.