textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 717 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day.

- Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, isolated flash flooding, and lightning.

- A wet pattern will likely be in place this weekend and may pose a more widespread flooding threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Currently the synoptic pattern consist of weak ridging atop the far southeastern CONUS with an upper low slowly meandering into the mid- Mississippi River Valley. Additionally, a diffuse stationary boundary can be noted on the north and western fringes of the CWA.

Isolated to scattered convection has developed in typical summer- time diurnal fashion, and will continue throughout this afternoon and evening. Best coverage is generally expected in vicinity of higher terrain, with slightly lesser chances across valley locations. Latest model derived soundings from CAMs paint MLCAPE between 1000- 2000 J/kg with PWAT values 1.5 to 1.8 inches. The fairly moist profiles are between the 75th and 90th percentiles per KBNA sounding climatology and limit DCAPE values to 400-700 J/kg. The lower DCAPE values will help to limit downburst potential but the anomalous moisture availability and LCL-EL mean wind nearly parallel to the boundary could lead to isolated flooding with any training convection. Overall, a gusty winds and localized flooding the main concerns.

The aforementioned upper low will continue to translate east Thursday with the surface boundary expected to be draped west to east just to our south. The thermodynamic environment will remain fairly persistent, along with the primary hazards of gusty winds and localized flooding with the strongest activity.

As we transition into Friday and continue into the weekend, an upper level trough will amplify over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Region. Clusters of storms may develop beneath slightly enhanced mid to upper level flow Friday afternoon. GFS soundings depict an elevated mixed layer across southern portions of the forecast area during this time, which could enhance the potential for a few strong to severe gusts making it to the surface. Additionally, both ensemble and deterministic guidance agree that PWAT values will increase to just north of two inches Friday onward.

Guidance hints that a boundary will be draping towards the area late Friday into Saturday and could result in a prolonged period with showers and storms tapping into the anomalous PWATs. Flash flooding threat likely to continue, if not increase, into the weekend. Though, the expected location of the greatest axis of precip still remains a little fuzzy. A Flood Watch may be needed with future forecast packages. The front will work south of the region with decreasing chances of precip as we head into the new work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

With little change to the air mass across the TN Valley over the past 24 hours, the TAFs will generally follow persistence. TRI is expected to have low clouds develop late tonight, dropping to low MVFR but possibly IFR at times. TYS has a lower chance of MVFR cigs so a TEMPO will be mentioned there. CHA will stay VFR but a brief MVFR period cannot be ruled out. Showers and storms will develop in the area tomorrow afternoon, but confidence on their location and timing is too low to mention yet in the TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 89 72 90 / 10 40 30 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 71 87 / 30 60 60 90 Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 70 86 / 30 60 60 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 67 84 / 50 70 60 90

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.