textproduct: Morristown
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 128 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026
- Above normal temperatures this weekend. Highs Sunday will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
- Scattered to isolated showers/storms Saturday with low-end potential of hail.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Troughing off the Atlantic coast and a large ridge over the western Conus will maintain the NW flow pattern across the TN Valley region today. The warming trend will continue, with highs in the 70s central and south, to mid/upper 60s north. Winds could get breezy and gusty this afternoon as the SW wind gets channeled up the Valley, with winds at the top of the boundary layer between 25-30 kt.
A surface front and a weak upper trough drop SW across the OH Valley on Friday night. This could bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms to our northern sections overnight. The front settles E-W along the TN/VA/KY border area on Saturday, and could be the focus for shower/thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Model soundings show some good midlevel lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km and MLCAPE around 1200 J/kg at CHA, but there is a capping inversion that will need to be overcome to realize this instability. Forcing appears weak so confidence on a severe threat is low. Hail would be the main threat with gusty winds possible as well if storms can develop.
A low pressure system over the Plains will keep a SW surface flow across our area on Sunday that will provide warm temperatures. Highs will reach well into the 80s for much of the TN Valley. A cold front will cross the area on Monday, but limited moisture will mean little in the way of precipitation. Cooler temperatures will follow for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Windy conditions continue through today with mid to high level clouds remaining in place coming out of the north. Winds slack off after sunset, and while they'll pick back up tomorrow, they are not expected to be as breezy.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 84 56 86 / 0 30 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 79 57 83 / 10 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 79 55 83 / 10 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 72 52 80 / 30 20 10 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.