textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

- After morning rain/snow, dry and gradually clearer conditions are expected today with highs in the 40s for most. Sunday will be colder with highs only in the 30s.

- Very cold conditions are expected early next week, especially Monday night into Tuesday, with below 0 wind chills possible in the higher elevations.

- Wednesday will dry and more seasonal with chances for rain and snow again late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Currently, a system is centered over the Great Lakes with its frontal boundary to our west. Ahead of this front, precipitation will continue to move in with breezy conditions ahead of the front, especially in the mountains where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Because of very dry conditions today, precipitation has taken some time to reach the ground, but surface wetbulb values certainly indicate a narrower window for rain before snow takes over in southwest Virginia and the Tennessee mountains. Overall accumulations remain largely the same but could be slightly higher than expected in some parts of southwest Virginia. But, the window for precipitation also does look slightly shorter than previously expected as well. After the front moves through, dry with gradually clearer conditions are expected throughout the day.

By this evening into tonight, troughing will deepen to our west with another system developing along the northern Gulf. This system is expected to move well off the Atlantic Coast, keeping our region dry but with more westerly winds and CAA. By Monday, however, a strong cold front will move through the area ahead of an Arctic High diving down from Canada. While another system will track to our north, our region will remain dry with very cold temperatures being the main focus as 850mb temperatures will be near to below -10 Celsius for some time. The MSLP gradient will make for increasing winds and below 0 wind chills for the higher elevations. By Monday night, this Arctic High will be set up almost directly over the region, leading to strong subsidence and radiational cooling. Much of the region could drop to near 10 degrees with single digits across northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and the mountains. With similar conditions on Tuesday, many places will stay near or below freezing at best. By Wednesday, this high will shift to our east, leading to southerly flow and more seasonal temperatures after another very cold morning.

The end of the week will be another period to watch as troughing will deepen with another frontal boundary approaching from the northwest. Moisture will also increase from the south, leading to high chances for precipitation. Models differ on exact timing but also on how cold the lower levels will be as precipitation occurs. Most sources suggest the greatest chance for snow will be to our north, but sufficiently cold air could reach into northern portions of our region. Regardless, this will be worth watching in the days ahead.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front is crossing the area, and cigs are lifting at CHA behind the front. Riding cigs should follow at TYS and TRI in the next few hours, with all sites VFR by noon. A secondary cold front moves through the area this evening, and may bring MVFR cigs to TRI, along with a shift of winds to a W-NW direction.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 25 38 25 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 23 35 22 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 22 35 22 / 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 22 31 18 / 20 10 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.