textproduct: Morristown

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 214 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Key Messages:

1. Dry conditions continue with a slight warming trend today.

2. Patchy fog possible early this morning.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow is present today as a slight ridge builds into the Southeast tonight. At the surface, high pressure is over the region as the Bermuda-Azores high extends into the Southeast. A stationary boundary will be over AL/GA/SC today but will be to far away to give us precip. Dry weather continues with POPs near zero today and tonight. Patchy fog is possible just before daybreak. There is not much fog development currently but dew point depressions are starting to tighten up in some spots. Fog development will probably be confined to waterways and fog prone spots. Some fog is starting to show up on satellite in the Southern TN Valley. Highs will be seasonable in the 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 214 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Key Messages:

1. Daily storms are expected with better coverage Friday onward.

2. Each day will be hot and humid with highs well into the 80s to around 90.

Thursday through Saturday

At the start of the period, ridging will be expanding into the area with a closed low centered over the southern Great Plains. Surface high pressure will be slowly receding to our east. This initial pattern will provide weak but broad southerly flow, leading to advection of moisture and continually warmer temperatures. Diurnal convection can be expected, mainly along the higher terrain and further south where better moisture is in place. On Friday, this closed low will progress into Missouri with ridging shifting just to our east. By this time, deep moisture will have spread across the entire region with even more humid conditions felt at the surface. When combined with the feature to the northwest, more area-wide diurnal convection can be expected. There are also some early indications of a potential MCS moving into the region from the west on Friday night. The thermodynamic environment currently looks better to our west, but this will be something to watch. By Saturday, the closed low will lift off to the north with southwesterly flow bringing PWATs to 1.8 inches or more. Area-wide diurnal convection can be expected once again, along with hot and humid conditions.

Sunday through Tuesday

For Sunday through Tuesday, ridging will gradually get suppressed as a series of shortwaves move over the area. The first will likely be remnants from the closed low with additional shortwaves possible afterwards. This will keep fairly persistent coverage of diurnal convection each day. As is typical during these summer patterns, some strong to marginally severe storms are possible if tall enough, which will keep low probability HWO wording.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected. Chances for fog development this morning are low at the terminals but a brief vis reduction around daybreak is not completely out of the question.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 66 89 69 / 0 0 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 64 88 68 / 0 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 63 87 67 / 0 0 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 60 87 65 / 0 0 20 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.