textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Very heavy rainfall will be possible with a threat of flash flooding overnight into Thursday over our south and southeast counties.

- High resolution models continue to show a heavy rain axis from roughly Hamilton county eastward to Monroe and Polk counties in TN, and Cherokee and Clay counties in NC overnight into Thursday. That is the area of highest concern.

-Additional showers and storms at times for the Friday through the end of the forecast period, especially across the south Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The main concern for the forecast period remains the possibility of additional flooding issues overnight and during the day Thursday. As of 10 PM EDT on Wed July 22nd, a cold front was situated in the TN valley, stretching southwestward into northern AL and MS. This is going to interact with a northward surging boundary (possibly a strong sea breeze aided by southerly low level flow on the northeastern periphery of TS Bertha) in the coming hours, kicking off more robust shower and thunderstorms from northern AL east- northeastward into the southern TN valley and our western NC counties. Similar to last night, CAM guidance has been insistent on a fairly narrow swath of higher rainfall amounts with good probabilities of seeing over 5" of rain. This seems very plausible given confluent WSW low level flow and the high likelihood of training convection. Some brief storms in McMinn, Monroe, and southwest Blount county over the last couple of hours have radar estimates in the 2-3" range already. The Flood Watch that was issued for the southern areas seems well warranted and I see no reason for changes. In terms of timing, it once again seems like an overnight through mid/late morning threat window.

By late morning the influence of TS Bertha will be weakening, with increasingly northerly surface flow across the CWA and falling upper heights as shortwave energy moves in. This should push the front and associated rainfall threat just south of our area by the mid afternoon hours Thursday. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see some lingering heavy rain/flooding threat in our far southeast TN and western NC counties well into the afternoon hours before the front is more confidently to our south.

For Friday onward, the general trend will be a building ridge out west and a deepening eastern CONUS trough. Plenty of shortwave activity moving from the upper midwest towards the southern Appalachian region from Friday through next week will result in an active weather pattern and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast area. A notable shortwave is seen to move from the Ozarks eastward across TN/KY on Friday, which should result in scattered convection across the area Friday afternoon with fairly decent coverage in the mountains thanks to low level westerly flow. Otherwise, timing of any one of these shortwaves this weekend into next weekend is difficult at the moment. Suffice it to say that there should be several opportunities for showers over the next week.

Temperatures for Thursday into Saturday look to be a bit below normal, then the remainder of the period will likely see temperatures back closer to seasonal norms.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Highly variable conditions are expected overnight as on/off showers affect CHA and TYS, with a range of VFR to IFR conditions at times. TAFs will try to follow general trends without too many TEMPOs/PROBs. CHA will have periods of showers all day as a front stalls near the area. TYS will mainly have showers in the morning hours, with improving conditions in the afternoon. Rain and MVFR conditions at TRI at the moment should improve to VFR in the early afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 72 86 72 / 80 30 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 69 85 71 / 50 20 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 84 67 85 70 / 20 10 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 65 82 67 / 20 20 60 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch through this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through this evening for Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk- Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

Flood Watch through this afternoon for Blount Smoky Mountains- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Loudon-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.