textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated early Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms.

- An additional round of showers and thunderstorms likely early Wednesday morning. While chances for severe storms are slightly higher than Monday night, the overall likelihood of severe storms remains low.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather arriving.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The main takeaway for the coming week is that we are likely to see multiple rounds of widespread, and much needed, rainfall across the entirety of the NWS Morristown forecast area. There could also be some chances for some severe storms mixed in, mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but confidence remains low overall.

An upper trough and associated surface low will lift northeast through the upper midwest on Monday, dragging a front towards East Tennessee Monday night into Tuesday morning. Showers associated with this feature arrive in our CWA around or shortly after daybreak Tuesday morning. I don't believe there to be much support for any severe storms with this activity. Depending on which model sounding you look at, there's some elevated instability that could support thunder and possibly some small hail. But that is about it, and there's a substantial low level inversion in place so surface- based convection seems highly unlikely and thus negates any notable threat of damaging winds or other hazards.

The aforementioned front will stall out just to our west on Tuesday. However it will eventually be pushed through our CWA early Wednesday by a trailing upper disturbance that moves through the greater Tennessee river valley in the westerly flow aloft Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This disturbance will be aided by a strengthening subtropical jet over the I-40 corridor between Arkansas and New Mexico, firing off another round of convection across Middle Tennessee Tuesday night that will push into our forecast area during the morning hours on Wednesday. Once again the early morning hour arrival time doesn't favor severe chances overall. However the low level inversion is much weaker Tue night and forecast soundings do show better shear and slightly more instability, including some noteworthy DCAPE on the order of a few hundred J/kg in the Chattanooga area. The current SPC Day 3 Outlook has a Slight Risk area that extends east into our Cumberland Plateau areas and parts of the southern TN valley in East Tennessee. Despite the overnight arrival this seems reasonable, with models favoring a damaging wind threat should any severe storms occur.

Behind the front, cooler temperatures are on tap through the weekend. Temperatures could drop low enough for there to be some frost potential by next weekend in our far northeast Tennessee and southwestern Virginia counties. It is possible we see another round of rain next weekend, but there is a high degree of uncertainty there.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Will have a VFR forecast for the period with light winds overnight, then winds at CHA and TYS will be closer to 10kts Monday afternoon. Fog development at TRI and TYS late tonight, while possible, looks too unlikely to warrant inclusion at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 81 60 77 / 0 0 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 83 57 75 / 0 0 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 54 82 57 75 / 0 0 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 80 52 72 / 0 0 40 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.