textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

- As colder air arrives later in the day, rain will change to snow and continue off and on in the higher elevations through Friday evening.

- Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected at or above 3,000 feet in the Tennessee mountains with locally higher amounts along the highest peaks. A Winter Weather Advisory has goes into effect Friday morning.

- Dry and cool conditions are expected this weekend with lows deep into the 20s Sunday morning. Then, a gradual warming trend is expected into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Isolated showers will continue across NE TN and SW VA this afternoon with little in the way of sensible impacts from them. Our cold front has moved through the area and will usher in colder temperatures over the next half day or so. The upper level low will pivot over the Ohio Valley and S Great Lakes region over the next day or so before moving off the East Coast. For tonight Low temperatures will fall in the mid 30s for the Valley and upper 20s to lower 30s in the mountains. The colder air will allow rain showers to changeover to snow showers across in the higher elevations and E TN mountains. Very light accumulations are possible tonight, but the best chance of accumulating snow arrives Friday afternoon.

On Friday, our attention turns to the northwest flow set up over the region. Streamlines support our 850mb flow coming through the western Great Lakes into the TN Valley. This is a favorable flow pattern for upslope flow precipitation events in our area. Our 850mb wind speeds will be between 20 to 25 knots, sufficient for orographic lift and snow showers. Forecast soundings show favorable low level moisture that extends up nearly into the DGZ. Our low level temperatures aren't perfect, but should be cold enough for snow with the added help of orographic lift. Our heavier, more persistent snow showers will begin Friday afternoon in the eastern TN mountains.

With that in mind, we've opted to nudge back the start time of the Winter Weather Advisory in the eastern TN mountains above 3000 feet to 15z Friday morning. This adjustment should better highlight the period of greatest potential winter impacts in the higher elevations. The final vort max will move through the region Friday evening. This disturbance will help amplify precipitation coverage with more widespread rain showers in the Valleys and persistent snow showers in the mountains. visibilities will likely plummet below 1/2sm in the heaviest snow showers Friday evening. Snow totals have trended ever so slightly higher. Most locations in the Winter Weather Advisory end up between 2 to 4 inch range. For the highest mountain peaks, locally higher amounts in the 4 to 6 inch range appear possible.

Our upper level low will begin to exit the region on Saturday. This will weaken our 850mb flow and cause precipitation to wrap up Saturday morning. Saturday and Sunday will be colder with highs in the 40s and lower 50s. However, skies will begin to clear out Saturday afternoon and the wind speeds will decrease. Saturday night will likely be the coldest night of the season so far with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s in the Valley and Plateau counties. High pressure will build into the region and will lead to a gradual warming trend Sunday into next week. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 50s Monday and Tuesday with 60s expected mid week. The remainder of the forecast period after Saturday will be dry under the influence of the ridge and high pressure.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Isolated showers are moving through the region currently, but most of the showers are not making it to the surface just yet. Could see a brief downpour mainly at KTRI/KTYS. Winds will remain elevated and ceilings will remain low which should keep away the densest of fog overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 51 34 53 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 47 33 49 / 20 30 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 47 32 49 / 10 20 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 45 31 44 / 30 60 40 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene- Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.