textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

- Light rain showers today transition to snow showers late afternoon and evening for northern portions of Tennessee and especially elevated locations. Light snow accumulations possible in northern sections and mountains.

- Black ice is a concern Thursday morning due to today's rain and melting snow freezing on roads as temperatures drop into the 20s.

- Cold frontal passage late Friday, bringing a chance for light rain/snow and a drop in temperatures Friday night/Saturday.

- Warmer temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Cloud cover and light rain showers have persisted today behind the departing cold front but ahead of the approaching mid/upper level trough. 850 mb cold advection will kick in through the afternoon, and we are seeing temps in the northern Plateau and VA/KY border near to below freezing. With weak forcing and shallow moisture barely reaching the -10 C level, precip will be light as it changes to snow showers or flurries this evening. An upslope wind component will maintain light snow or flurries later into the night in the mountains, where a half to 1 inch accumulation will be possible. Lower elevations of NE TN and SW VA may see a dusting at most.

The bigger concern for Thursday morning is the cold temperatures in the 20s causing melting snow and rain today freezing into black ice on roads. A SPS will be issued to highlight this.

A couple shortwave trough cross the area in the NW flow Thursday night and again on Friday night. The latter will be more significant in terms of cold advection, although moisture will be very limited. A quick shot of light snow is possible in SW VA and NE TN mountains as the cold air moves in and squeezes out a little moisture into snow. Temperatures drop again Saturday with highs in the 20s and 30s north, and 40s south.

A welcome warm up will come next week as a large ridge builds over the region. Expect to see highs in the 60s Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Poor weather conditions to continue for much of the next 24 hours, especially in the northeast. MVFR and at times IFR conditions will be predominate overnight, with slow improvements later. Kept KTRI on a pessimistic recovery late tomorrow, though clearing to VFR is a possibility before the end of the TAF period. A large uncertainty overnight is how prevalent FZFG is over the central and northern valleys, with northerly winds potentially mitigating fog development. For now kept explicit fog out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 25 45 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 39 24 50 / 30 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 21 40 24 51 / 20 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 35 20 41 / 50 0 0 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.