textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- Moisture returns today, with periods of showers/storms tonight and Saturday, some of which may produce heavy rainfall and flooding.

- A dry weather pattern develops next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

A surface front sits south of our area, with a mid/upper level ridge extending SE to NW across the region. Through the night, 850 mb winds will shift from NE to S in response to an approaching low pressure system over AR/MS. Low level moisture will be increasing through the day, but the mid/upper ridge will keep rain chances mainly in our southern sections. Forecast soundings show quite a pronounced gradient of PW across the area this afternoon, from 1.9 at CHA to 1.1 at TRI. By tonight, the mid/upper ridge will have retreated and convection should blossom as a shortwave trough moves into the TN Valley. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles suggest efficient warm cloud processes, and a surface front in the area will help focus and sustain convective development. The main concern with this precip will be locally heavy rainfall and training cells that could dump 1-2 inches in an hour. The main period for this threat is expected to be from midnight to noon Saturday. By Saturday afternoon/evening, a closed low over New England and the Mid- Atlantic region will rotate southward and push drier air into our area, lowering rain chances through Sunday. The NBM's likely PoPs on Sunday will be cut back to a chance/slight chance.

An East Coast trough and a building ridge over the MS River to Great Lakes region will result in mainly dry conditions in East TN for most of next week, with temperatures staying fairly close to normal. Rain chances may return late in the week as the ridge aloft breaks down and Gulf moisture advances northward into the lower MS region and western TN Valley.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Will see showers and a few thunderstorms spreading from south to north, but it is still questionable how much makes it to TRI before the precipitation shifts back south. Will try to time highest probability periods with prob30 and/or tempo groups. No mention of thunder at TRI as probability there is lower. Also expect cigs to drop to MVFR (and possibly lower) at CHA and TYS for period later tonight into early Saturday. Improvement back to VFR is likely by the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 66 82 65 / 40 80 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 79 63 / 20 70 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 66 79 61 / 20 70 70 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 62 81 57 / 0 30 40 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.