textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1019 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Isolated showers and storms will be mainly south of I-40 this afternoon and evening.

- By Thursday, showers and storms will be more scattered south of I-40 and isolated to the north.

- Better shower and storm coverage is expected Fri, Sat and Sun as a trough moves into the Eastern U.S.

UPDATE

Issued at 1019 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A few light showers or sprinkles have been on Hytop radar the last couple of hours after developing around sunrise. Guidance indicates this will generally continue into this afternoon's convective time period, so updated the hourly PoPs to reflect the current cloud/rain situation and the transition to afternoon storm chances. Otherwise everything else is on track thus far this morning despite a few low clouds hanging around in the central Valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Showers and storms will be more isolated today with activity mainly confined to south of I-40. A lingering stationary boundary remains over northern GA/AL today. In the upper levels, a ridge extends from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Showers and storms will be more isolated today with activity mainly confined to south of I-40. A typical summer air mass is in place today with good instability and good moisture availability (PWAT values near 2 inches). Severe threat seems low like a typical summer day. The threat for flooding issues is low but nonzero. Steering flow is around 10 knots. With lower rain chances, temps will be warmer and close to normal.

Thursday looks similar with isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly south of I-40. A ridge will extend from the Carolinas to the Lower Midwest by Thursday and remnants of the lingering surface boundary or a surface trough may be over the Tennessee Valley.

The pattern will change for this weekend as a trough digs into the East Coast, although weak this far south. A shortwave will move into the Ohio Valley Friday afternoon/evening bringing higher chances for showers and storms. This pattern will continue through the weekend. At the surface, a boundary may move into the Ohio Valley by Sunday. Multiple rounds of showers and storms can be expected Friday, Saturday and Sunday. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain for Friday and Saturday, so flooding issues may be a concern if this pattern holds.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Will start with a period of MVFR cigs at CHA, but otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. There will be scattered showers and storms around mainly CHA this afternoon with potential to impact the terminal, so will include a prob30 thunder group at CHA. Some fog or low clouds may develop near the end of the period, but probability of occurrence does not currently look high enough to include in any of the TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 72 90 73 / 40 10 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 73 90 74 / 10 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 89 72 90 73 / 10 10 30 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.