textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Breezy southwesterly winds are expected through this afternoon especially in the higher elevations. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Smokies.

- Rain will return area-wide this evening through Thursday with most places expected to receive between half an inch and 1.5 inches of rain.

- Dry and mild conditions return Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Eastern U.S. Northwest flow will continue as a shortwave moves into the Northeast on Wednesday. At the surface, weak high pressure is over the Southeast as a low is moving through Ontario and Quebec to the north Wednesday, leaving a stationary boundary across the region Wednesday night through Thursday. The best chance for rain will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening as the boundary lingers. Forecast rainfall totals are half an inch to 1.5 inches with widespread rain expected. Temps will be warm enough for an all rain event. Although some light snow will be possible in Southwest Virginia and extreme Northeast Tennessee as the boundary first approaches early Wednesday morning but no accumulation is expected.

Strong southwest winds are expected through Wednesday especially across the higher elevations. HREF has 850 mb winds increasing and peaking in the early morning hours around 50 knots. Winds will become more westerly as the higher winds move in, so downsloping will be minimal. Advisory level winds (40+ mph gusts) are likely on the tallest peaks so mainly GSMNP. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Smokies through late morning. Cloud cover will keep stronger winds from mixing down in the Tennessee Valley, although gusts of 20 to 25 mph still seem possible there through Wednesday afternoon.

The front will finally move through the region Thursday night bringing a drop in dew points Friday but not colder temperatures. Friday through the weekend looks dry with nearly zonal flow or weak troughing aloft. Temperatures in the Tennessee Valley will be warmer this weekend with highs mainly in the 60s. Details are uncertain for next week but another chance for rain looks likely with mild temps expected.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR to start all sites. Will continue LLWS briefly to start at CHA and TRI due to fairly light surface winds and wind magnitudes around 45 kts near 2,000 feet AGL. LLWS not included for TYS due to stronger surface winds. Winds will become gusty from the southwest all sites today. Will see rain and lower cigs/vsby moving in today and continuing into tonight, with conditions deteriorating to at least MVFR all sites and likely to IFR (or lower) at both TYS and TRI. May see LLWS again late in the period mainly at CHA, but right now it looks too borderline to include that far out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 51 65 46 / 30 80 90 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 47 60 43 / 40 90 90 40 Oak Ridge, TN 55 47 60 41 / 30 90 80 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 43 55 39 / 30 90 80 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.