textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Windy conditions across the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills tonight. Gusts up to 45-55 mph.

- Light rain showers or sprinkles beginning around daybreak Sunday through noon. Higher elevation areas may see a brief wintry mix but impacts are forecast to be minimal or none.

- Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and widespread rain to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Far northeast mountains, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia, may begin as a wintry mix. All rain is expected Tuesday with a gradual changeover to snow late Tuesday across higher elevations. Limited accumulations at most.

- Dry again Wednesday and Thursday with precipitation chances increasing once again Friday into next Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Satellite shows a good deal of mid and high clouds moving into the region with sky becomie mostly cloudy. A storm system will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley through Sunday morning with associated frontal boundary moving across the region. Since the Gulf moisture return into the Region is limited due to ridging into the southeast United States, rainfall amounts from this system will be light.

REFS probabilities of snow and ice show low chances of a wintry mix across the highest elevations. Little to no accumulation is expected.

Main concern from this system will be mountain wave high winds across the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills. 850mb jet of 40-45 knots with decent ridging into the Carolinas will set the stage for gusts up to 45-55 mph from late today through early Sunday morning.

REFS gusts probabilities are fairly high for exceedance of 50 mph but not for 60 mph. A wind advisory remains in effect.

Next moves into the Ohio and Tennessee valley for Monday night and Tuesday. Jet dynamics with this system is quite strong over the region producing a frontal boundary moving east Tuesday. Jet dynamics produces strong fronto-genetic forcing. There are differences in the strong of the low-level jet with the NAM the strongest. LREF ensembles show a strong enough jet along with ridging over the Carolinas to produce another mountain wave event for the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills.

Widespread rain will produce rainfall amounts of 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches. Heaviest amounts Plateau and southeast Tennessee.

Cold air advecting behind this system may produce wintry conditions for the mountains late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Dry conditions return for Wednesday and Thursday before another storm system moves in for Friday and Saturday. There is a northern and southern stream component to this system. The impacts will be determined on the amount of phasing occurs with these two systems.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Radar shows rain over Middle TN moving east, but it is expected to have a decreasing trend as it moves into East TN overnight. Cigs are expected to drop to MVFR as it moves in, with light rain lowering vis to MVFR for brief periods. Low level moisture lingers through tomorrow, with IFR to MVFR cigs. Elected not to include LLWS with this TAF issuance as the winds peak at 45 kt above the 2 kft AGL height tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 51 29 50 / 50 50 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 50 27 49 / 40 50 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 38 49 25 48 / 50 40 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 46 23 49 / 30 40 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.