textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

- Cold with some light snow showers and flurries around tonight into Wednesday morning. A light dusting is possible for some isolated areas.

-Another surge of bitter cold is expected Friday night into the weekend. Moderate probabilities of light snow accumulations east of I-81 toward the east TN mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

A very weak wave of energy, and limited moisture, stream across the area tonight from out of the west-northwest. Soundings show this moisture layer confined between 900mb and up to 850mb. However, the current airmass is so cold that the top of the moisture layer is around -12 to -15C. Because of this, I expect some light flurries and perhaps a few light snow showers around at times overnight. The NBM had zero POPs through the night but this seems very unlikely. I put in flurries from Knoxville northward. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated areas north of I-40 pickup a dusting of snow overnight. A few tenths of an inch of snow are possible across portions of the east TN mountains, northeast TN, and southwest VA.

Dry through the rest of the week with continued below normal temperatures. Then, all eyes turn toward the weekend system. Moderate to high probabilities are in place for another shot of very cold air this weekend. Latest forecast high temps for Saturday range between the teens and low 20s with single digits likely for most by Saturday night. Wind Chill values are likely to be in the single digits across valley locations during the day on Saturday with values below 0 in across our higher elevations.

Aside from the cold, the biggest focus is on the potential for snow. Models are still showing a very deep trough and area of low pressure moving into are area. The exact path of the low will determine our snowfall chances and amounts. For now, it looks reasonable that portions of southwest VA, northeast TN and the east TN mountains, could see some minor accumulations from this system. Latest NBM probs yield around 40 to 50% chance to see greater than 1 inch of snowfall and around 20% chance to see 3 inches. These values look reasonable at this time. The bulk of the moisture moves out by Sunday but some light flurries could remain within the northwest flow.

High temperatures back into the upper 30s to low 40s on Tuesday as weak ridging returns. These temps are still below normal though.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Clouds will increase tonight, and a few snow showers and flurries will be around especially TRI and possibly at TYS. Conditions may dip to MVFR at TYS at times tonight, and will likely become MVFR for a more extended period at TRI. Will see improvement back to VFR both sites later in the period, and CHA will likely remain VFR throughout. Gusty southwest winds this afternoon will diminish a bit after sunset and become more from the west and northwest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 23 43 22 42 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 20 38 19 39 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 19 37 18 38 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 33 14 34 / 20 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.