textproduct: Morristown
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 257 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026
- Slightly elevated fire weather conditions today.
- Patchy frost possible northeast TN and southwest VA tonight into Tuesday morning.
- Dry conditions and a warming trend through the week. Increasing chances of rain and storms Friday night and into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026
We begin the period with the backside of an upper-level trough still in place across the area. Northwest flow continues and will allow a dry airmass to persist across the region. As we further dry out from Saturday night's rainfall, combined with the low RH and breezy winds today, slightly elevated fire weather conditions will be in place. The risk will be a little higher across Cherokee and Clay County NC, and portions of northeast TN and southwest VA. These areas received lesser rainfall compared to the rest of our area. It doesn't quite look like Red Flag warning criteria will be met today but an enhanced fire danger statement will likely be needed for potions of the area. The day shift will coordinate with forestry partners later this morning to determine issuance.
Otherwise, dry conditions and a warming trend continue through the week as high pressure builds in across our area. A weak cold front approaches on Wednesday and may bring a few light showers into southwest VA, but chances are very low. By the end of the week, models are showing a deepening trough across the western U.S. This will break down of ridge of high pressure and put our region within zonal flow. This zonal flow pattern will open the door for a series of systems from Friday night and into early next week.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Calm and clear under high pressure the rest of the night. W-NWly winds will develop later today with possible gusts up to 20KT. Mid to high clouds during the day, followed by a return to calm and clear later tonight.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 47 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 42 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 70 42 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 34 72 47 / 10 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Fire Weather Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for Cherokee-Clay.
TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
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