textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 702 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday night into early Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms. Gusty winds in the foothills and portions of the Plateau are likely.

- An additional round of showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low potential again for strong to severe storms.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather arriving.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

At least two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next three days, primarily late tonight into Tuesday morning, and again late Tuesday night into Wednesday. These should give healthy amounts of rainfall to much of the region. Environment does not look overly favorable for severe weather tonight, though we'll watch it anyways. Late timing arrival for storms, likely past midnight, means a stout inversion will be allowed to set up. There's still plenty of MUCAPE available for thunderstorms, but not confident we'll see a significant threat beyond small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Winds on the Plateau, especially northern Plateau, may be gusting to near wind advisory criteria in advance of the storms, as winds just above the surface will be 40 knots. Any strong convective downdraft can also grab a hold of this low level jet. Meanwhile a strong temperature gradient is likely to fuel strong winds in the mountain wave prone foothills, with gusts to 40 mph possible.

Second disturbance will bring a second round of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday along with the cold front, effecting an airmass change in our area. Once more will have to watch for strong thunderstorms during this period, although the LLJ is weaker for this second round of storms. Effective shear is still strong enough to be favorable for storms, the biggest question is still the CAPE profile and lapse rates. Current soundings indicate rather poor lapse rates and low CAPE, likely a big limit for severe potential. The ideal solution is we get widespread beneficial rainfall.

Post front, we'll trend a little cooler, with still the potential for frost each morning from Friday into the weekend in cooler spots of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. We've also been trending steadily drier Thursday and onwards, with guidance indicating large mature troughs far to our north, and active weather along the Gulf coast, keeping us stuck in the middle.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Quiet aviation conditions are expected through the day today with increasing southerly winds and limited cloud cover at or above 5,000 feet AGL. Gusts to 20 kts are possible, especially at CHA. Heading into tonight, winds at the surface will decrease with an increase in winds aloft leading to LLWS inclusion at CHA and TYS. This will be ahead of showers and storms expected at all of the terminals by early morning. They were left out of this TAF issuance due to timing differences, but reductions are likely.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 59 78 64 / 0 60 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 57 77 62 / 0 60 70 90 Oak Ridge, TN 82 56 76 62 / 0 60 70 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 52 74 57 / 0 60 70 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.