textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1204 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

- Quick system brings some light snowfall, mainly flurries, in portions of southwest Virginia late tonight. - A warming trend will continue late week with another system bringing chances for light rain Friday night through Saturday. Highest probabilities for precipitation will be across southern counties.

- Dry and seasonally mild conditions will continue this weekend into early next week as we remain between upper ridging across the Great Plains and troughing across the Northeast US.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

We remain within an area of upper-level northwest flow aloft with troughing and colder than normal conditions across the Northeast CONUS and ridging and above normal conditions across the Great Plains. A quick upper-level shortwave will dive southeastward across the Great Lakes tonight with a weak surface cold front moving south across the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians by 12z Thursday. It will begin to stall out as it reaches our area, but weak forcing will result in some additional clouds tonight. Light precipitation is possible across southwest Virginia between 09z and 15z Thursday, but amounts appear to be around a trace to 0.02 inches. This corresponds to very light snow on the order of flurries to a dusting. No impacts are expected.

Shortwave ridging will increase heights across the area on Friday with southwest flow aloft resulting in isentropic lift and increasing mid and upper level clouds. A southern stream shortwave will bring a weak surface low across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South region with isentropic stratiform precipitation gradually spreading into the area Friday night and Saturday. A few sprinkles will be possible on Friday afternoon across southern areas, but dry air will likely limit precipitation reaching the surface early on.

This system will produce light rain across the region but limited amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch for most locations with locally higher amounts near 0.75 to 1 inch across our southern counties. This low pressure system will move east of the region on Saturday evening with cooler, near normal air briefly returning on Sunday. As a strong storm system amplifies longwave troughing across the Western CONUS, the ridge axis will shift eastward and amplify across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians early next week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures likely through the middle of next week. Models are in decent agreement with a cold front approaching the area next Wednesday, but synoptic support for lift and precipitation appears to be primarily far north of our region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions will continue with breezy WSW winds through the afternoon today, especially at TYS and TRI. Lower clouds expected late tonight near TRI with cigs around 3-4k ft as some light showers and snow flurries will be in the vicinity of the terminal around 12z Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 57 35 57 / 0 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 51 33 55 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 29 50 31 53 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 44 29 51 / 10 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.