textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 240 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Showers and storms likely over the weekend, with some strong to severe storm possible.

- Hot temperatures are likely next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A developing low pressure system in the lee of the Rockies today will track east across the central Plains to the lower Great Lakes/OH Valley through Friday and Saturday. Ahead of this system on Friday, a southerly flow will set up and bring more low level moisture to the area, which will allow for some scattered/isolated showers and storms to develop. The higher terrain of the mountains and Plateau will be favored for convective development with the lack of other forcing for lift. Development off outflow boundaries may bring isolated showers into the northern and central TN Valley.

Better forcing will be present on Saturday as a shortwave trough and jet stream crosses the area, and the surface low moves into the central Appalachians. 35-40 kt 850 mb winds will lead to some shear, favoring northern sections. Combined with MLCAPE in the neighborhood of 1000-1500 J/kg, we could see a few storms that are strong to marginally severe, mainly north of I-40. A well-mixed boundary layer and some dry air aloft suggests a primary threat of strong wind gusts from the strongest storms. The trailing cold front will be near the area by Saturday night, and this may be a focus for storms to develop again on Sunday when another stronger shortwave trough moves by. CAPE/shear values in the forecast soundings do not look as favorable on Sunday for severe, but the snyoptic forcing appears to be better. Can't rule out a severe threat on Sunday but the focus will remain on Saturday in our messaging for now.

An upper ridge begins to build over the area on Monday, bringing drier and very hot conditions for Monday through Thursday, and likely into next weekend. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 90s. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will likely rise into the mid to upper 90s in most valley locations, with afternoon heat index values climbing to near or above 100 at times.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are forecast through this period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 90 73 90 / 0 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 90 72 88 / 0 10 10 90 Oak Ridge, TN 66 89 72 88 / 0 10 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 89 68 85 / 0 20 20 90

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.