textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 129 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Mild today, turning to outright warm weather during the week.

- Chances for additional moderate rainfall return Wednesday night and onwards into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Clear skies and surface high pressure building in will present prime radiational conditions tonight. The question is, will it be enough for fog development. There could be some locally dense fog that develops tonight. And it would likely favor the central and northern valley locales, though it's not out of the possibility elsewhere. Confidence in it occurring is not very high though, due to mixed signals in guidance, so I decided to leave it out of the forecast for the moment.

Looking ahead, a strong subtropical jet will develop over the desert southwest tonight into Tuesday, extending into the central CONUS through late this week. Downstream we'll see persistent, strong southwesterly H85 flow resulting in well above normal temperatures, with highs reaching the low to mid 60s in the low elevations tomorrow then climbing into the upper 60s to possibly low 70s by later this week. There is a shortwave that will eject from the desert southwest into the central plains Tue night into Wed, which would drag a front into our region by Thursday, followed by another system on Friday. Deterministic guidance is mixed on our rain chances during this time, with some favoring more northern/drier tracks, and others a more southern/wetter track. The pattern would suggest we'll have several chances for rainfall between Wednesday night and the end of the forecast period, given the persistent southwesterly H85 flow and resulting above normal PWATs in conjunction with frontal boundaries nearby or moving through the region. This would be much needed given the ongoing drought conditions.

Lastly, it looks like there will be a couple periods of decent H85 flow this week (Wednesday and Friday). Mountains and foothills may see a few periods of stronger winds, though it's fairly marginal given the lack of strong cross-mountain pressure gradient and strict southwesterly direction. Additionally, late next weekend there remain signs from both deterministic and ensemble guidance of a potentially strong cold front passage. There would be some potential of upslope mountain snow should the depictions in the guidance come to fruition. We'll monitor for now.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

I have VFR conditions in at all TAF sites through the 18z period, but that comes with a caveat. And that is there is a possibility of substantial fog development tonight. Skies should remain mostly clear, and that would promote good radiational conditions. This would be most likely for KTRI and perhaps KTYS. But guidance is very mixed on the development so I held off on putting it in the TAFs for the time being.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 69 55 69 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 67 53 65 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 39 64 53 64 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 64 43 62 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.