textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 735 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are likely for the southern half of the region this afternoon and evening. Some isolated flooding issues could occur in flood prone spots and areas that received heavy rain the past few days. But the overall threat is lower than recent days.

- More typical summer weather Wednesday and Thursday with near normal temperatures and a chance of scattered thunderstorms mainly south of I-40.

- This weekend may bring back higher rain chances as a trough moves into the Eastern U.S.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The Morristown CWA will remain situated beneath ESE upper flow as we remain wedged between an increasingly elongated upper ridge over the Upper Midwest and Ohio valley being suppressed to the south by shortwaves moving through the Canadian side of the Great Lakes region, and a weak upper low over the deep south that is migrating towards the Mississippi River valley. As such, Gulf and Atlantic moisture will be advected into the region from the south/southeast, leading to continued diurnally favored showers and thunderstorms each day. This will primarily be during the afternoon hours over the southern CWA through Thursday as the influence from the ridge helps keep the northern areas dry. For Friday onward we'll lose the ridge influence as troughing takes hold across the eastern CONUS and the ridge shifts to a typical Bermuda high location off the southeast coast. So, look for Friday and the weekend time frame to feature more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. That trend also continues into early next week.

In terms of severe weather potential, the only concern I have is flooding potential. We will continue to have a high PWAT air mass through Saturday, with soundings that promote efficient warm rain processes and the potential for high rainfall rates. Given the rainfall we've had of late, some places will be especially susceptible to additional flash flooding should they receive more heavy rains. That said, PWATs are slightly lower than they were over the weekend, there's less of a signal for heavy rains, and storm motions should limit training potential, so I think the overall threat for any additional flooding through this weekend is pretty low. As we get into Sunday/Monday time frame that threat really take a nosedive as we get some drier air filtering in from the north behind a shortwave in the developing large scale eastern CONUS troughing.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Little changes to inherited 18z TAFs. TEMPO for possible MVFR fog added for TYS. Still some uncertainty if lower CIG will occur there tonight. Models and overall guidance still suggest that CHA may experience lower CIG during the overnight out of all the sites. Gradual improvement early tomorrow, before scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in VC of terminal for the afternoon. Uncertain if VC anything will impact TYS, so have left out for now. TRI has been driest, so VFR for the most part expected there, although guidance tries to throw in fog in the middle of the night tonight. Decided to leave out and re-access at 06z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 87 71 90 / 20 40 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 72 90 / 10 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 69 89 71 90 / 10 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.