textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 730 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- After some morning fog, dry and sunny weather continues Saturday, with a chance of showers returning Sunday afternoon.

- Showers and storms are likely Monday in multiple rounds. Organized severe storms are possible, mainly Monday evening.

- Rain chances decrease but continue for the rest of the period with temperatures near or below normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

High pressure will continue to build across the region from the NW through the afternoon and evening hours. With the surface high directly over the area tonight providing clear/calm conditions, some patchy fog will be possible in some areas, mainly near lakes and rivers.

A split flow pattern takes a shortwave trough across MS/AL/GA tomorrow, with a broad trough passing across the Great Lakes and NE states, leaving our area between systems. This should result in a dry day with near to slightly below normal temperatures. On Sunday, a low pressure system crossing the northern Plains will bring a deeper southerly flow that will warm temperatures into the mid/upper 80s. With the southerly flow will come greater moisture advection to southern portions of the area. The NBM is quite aggressive with PoPs in the afternoon, which seems overdone given the presence of a stable layer between 850-700 mb, with dry air aloft and little synoptic forcing to provide lift. NBM PoPs on Sunday will be cut back for this reason.

An upstream MCS in the Mid MS Valley region is expected to be approaching our area Monday morning. The remnants of this system are expected to be dissipating as they move east, but it may bring a round of showers to the area in the morning. The greater potential for showers/storms comes later in the day and in the evening as better mid/upper level forcing arrives with the approaching shortwave trough. The question is if the morning round of showers will suppress instability and thus the severe storm potential. Given the 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt, there appears to be adequate shear to support organized convection, and there could be enough time for air mass destabilization in the afternoon for MLCAPE to exceed 1500 J/kg. NBM joint probabilities of SBCAPE > 1000 J/kg and bulk shear > 30 kt is around 50% in the evening. So this will be a period to watch for possible strong to severe storms. A mention of this will be added to the HWO.

Next week will feature a broad trough across the eastern Conus, which will result in low to slight chance PoPs for most days, with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Have VFR conditions with light and variable winds through the period at all sites. Given rainfall yesterday and the combination of clear skies and light winds overnight, I'm confident that some patchy fog will develop. I am, however, not confident in how widespread it will be or whether it would affect any terminals. So, I left it out with the 00z issuance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 86 65 89 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 60 86 64 88 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 83 60 88 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.