textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 253 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected this afternoon. Isolated flooding and gusty winds are the primary concerns with the strongest activity.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the forecast period.

- Conditions will also be humid with no relief in sight until possibly next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

H3 ridging is in place over the southeastern CONUS, with an upper low having developed over the southern plains. This setup continues to promote enhanced diffluence aloft among an airmass with highly anomalous moisture availability. Latest mesoscale analysis suggest PWAT values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which is well into the 90th percentile per sounding climatology for KBNA. With an MCV expected to work north/northeast this afternoon and evening, have decided to introduce a short-fused Flash Flood Watch. Latest 12Z suite and hourly runs of CAMs all generally have some variation of swaths of 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals... locations more so isolated and variable. With 1hr FFGs ranging from 1.8 to as low as 1.2 inches, and 3 hr FFGs largely 1.5-2.0 inches, isolated flash flooding will be conditional on training areas of moderate to heavy precipitation. Overall, the highest confidence of isolated flash flooding is for areas south of I-40 and along and west of I-75. It is also possible to see some locally gusty winds under the strongest convection.

Bulk of the rain gradually wanes southwest to northeast tonight, with the potential for some breezy winds in the mountains as slight enhancement to roughly 25-30kts is expected in the southerly H85 flow. Best chance for some lingering morning Memorial Day showers will be in the far northeast. A vort max will promote development of additional showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening as upper diffluence and anomalous PWAT values remain in place. Some additional isolated flooding issues may arise during this time as well, but confidence is a little lower as the CAMs have not been in the greatest agreement on how well activity holds together or how great the coverage is. This is why the Flash Flood Watch was not carried through tomorrow evening, allowing us to keep monitoring and assessing new data as it comes through.

Overall, no significant change is expected in the synoptic pattern as we head into the mid-week. Daily chances of showers and storms will continue, and that may come with some flooding concerns partially conditional on how exactly the previous days activity pans out. There is also no standout threat for any strong to severe storms, but with such anomalous PWAT content, heaviest downpours can also lead to locally gusty winds due to precip loading.

Some models are hinting that a front could push to our south late in the period, with drier air moving into our area sometime next weekend. However, there is no consensus on this scenario for now and the ensemble approach of the NBM shows showers and storms again both days, albeit, PoPs trending a bit lower by Sunday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Showers and storms around to start, then a decrease in coverage before coverage increases again by Monday afternoon. Will see conditions lower in heavier showers/storms early, then more widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are expected later tonight into early Monday with the lowest cigs currently looking most likely at CHA. Some improvement to VFR is likely for late in the period, except in any storms. Winds will generally be light outside of any storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 78 65 81 / 70 90 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 78 64 81 / 90 80 70 90 Oak Ridge, TN 63 77 63 80 / 80 80 70 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 77 61 81 / 80 80 80 90

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne- Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton- Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn- Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA- Washington VA-Wise.