textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 221 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish this afternoon.

- Additional showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected at times Sunday afternoon into Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible which may lead to localized flooding, and a few storms may bring strong gusty winds mainly Monday into Monday evening.

- A drier weather pattern develops during the coming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

The flooding threat continues to decrease this afternoon as drier air works north to south across the area and the weak frontal boundary still over northern portions of our area slowly sags further south. The flash flood watch has been allowed to expire on schedule. Isolated convection may linger south into early tonight, but for the most part tonight will be dry across the area.

A weak impulse in the flow will bring an increase in showers and a few storms again later Sunday into Sunday night especially near the nearly stationary front, with the highest chances currently looking to be across the south and central areas Sunday afternoon and then across central areas Sunday night although these details are still in flux. Models disagree on the details, but they generally show the deeper moisture spreading back north with model PWAT values reaching the 1.5 to 1.8 inches across much of the area and what limited CAPE is available looks to be again distributed in a tall skinny profile. Given the weak boundary still over the area to act as a potential focus for convection and given that some areas are already rather wet, there is a threat of very heavy rain rates and localized flooding. This will bear watching, and will be added to the HWO for now.

For Monday and Monday night heights will be falling as an upper trough digs south, and a stronger cold front will drop into and then through our area. Model CAPE values approaching or exceeding 1500 J/kg and an increase in bulk shear suggest the possibility of a few storms becoming strong to marginally severe especially across southern and central portions of our area on Monday or Monday evening with damaging winds the primary threat. This threat will be mentioned in the HWO as well.

A few showers or storms may linger especially north and east Tuesday as additional short wave energy moves through the upper trough, then drier and cooler air will move in and the dry conditions will then persist at least through Friday along with a slow warming trend. By late in the period, shower and thunderstorm chances may increase as we move into the weekend, although model trends have been to delay the moisture return and confidence is not high for the details that far out.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

A few showers or thunderstorms around mainly CHA early, and will include a tempo thunder group at CHA . Outside of any showers/storms, conditions should generally be VFR. However, late in the period some low VFR or MVFR cigs will move back in at CHA, and a few showers will be around as well. Winds will generally be light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 80 64 84 / 20 40 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 82 63 81 / 10 30 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 60 82 63 82 / 10 40 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 82 60 80 / 0 0 50 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.