textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 134 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Daily showers and storms are expected to continue today, with greater storm coverage on Saturday.

- Lower rain chances Sunday and Monday, followed by increasing chances of showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures will be generally near to slightly above normal through the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Little change to the general pattern and the sensible weather is expected today from the last few days. We remain between a ridge off the NC Outer Banks and a trough in the vicinity of the MS River. This trough will make slow eastward progress, and may contribute to some high rain chances in a large portion of the area on Saturday.

Today is expected to be another day of convection developing in the terrain of the mountains and Cumberland Plateau, with slow steering flow. Storm propagation will be mainly due to outflow from dying cells. Localized flooding under these slow-moving cells with heavy rainfall will again be the main threat this afternoon. MLCAPE around 1000 L/kg with little to no shear should mean a very low threat of strong to severe storms. Saturday will have better midlevel forcing with the approaching shortwave trough. As a result, convection may initiate earlier in the day, and not only in the higher terrain. Localized flooding will be the main threat again, with a low risk of damaging downburst winds.

By Sunday, upper-level flow shifts to the NW as the trough moves east of our area. Overall, there is a signal for less moisture, which would limit coverage compared to previous days. Drying of the column continues into Monday as a high pressure ridge will be building to our west. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a broad upper trough begins to develop across the eastern Conus, and embedded shortwaves will being to bring higher rain chances to the area. The combination of low-level heating and cooling aloft due to shortwaves will produce a more notable convective environment. Current indications suggest lapse rates reaching 6 C/km to even 7 C/km, which would provide greater instability. A lot is uncertain about the exact placement of this environment, but the potential for strong to severe storms is something to keep an eye on for next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Clearing in sky cover on satellite imagery reveal fog/low clouds already developing in the Sequatchie valley. With clearing expected in the coming hours all the way up the TN valley, believe that including a mention of IFR or lower flight categories at all sites through early this morning seems reasonable. Once again today, SHRA/TSRA should develop over the terrain of the plateau and Appalachians during the early afternoon hours, then meander off into the valley as the day progresses. However, low confidence in exact location precludes anything more than VCTS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 72 91 73 / 40 10 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 90 72 / 30 10 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 89 71 89 71 / 30 10 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 68 85 68 / 30 10 50 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.