textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy rains will present a threat of isolated flash flooding this afternoon and again tomorrow. A front will approach on Friday for another chance of scattered storms across the area too.

- Frontal passage on Friday into Saturday will give a short reprieve of muggy conditions over the weekend.

- Another slug of high PWAT air moves in on Monday for more chances of showers and thunderstorms and associated heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Currently have a nearly stationary boundary situated north to south from our far western VA counties, southward through the Smokies and into our western NC counties this afternoon. Regional radar imagery shows a line of showers roughly aligned with this boundary and slowly shifting east with time. Aloft,

A weak upper trough is working its way through the Appalachian region today, skirting the northern periphery of a deep south ridge anchored over the Louisiana coastline. At the surface, a line of showers is aligned with a nearly stationary boundary that is situated below this trough, stretching from our VA counties southward through the Smokies and into far western NC this afternoon. PWATs remain around or slightly above 1.9". With wetbulb zero heights within a few hundred feet of freezing levels, both of which are above 13k ft AGL, the combination of efficient warm rain processes and high PWATs will incentives high rainfall rates in what convection is present through this evening and the overnight period. For areas around and north of the I-40 corridor, both 1hr and 3hr flash flood guidance is generally below 2 inches. While widespread flash flooding isn't expected, the environment is certainly supportive of heavy rain and at least an isolated flash flooding threat. I don't believe a watch is necessary, but we'll certainly have to monitor things closely. For tomorrow, similar conditions will be present, with another nocturnal convectively induced shortwave moving out of Kentucky and across the northern half of our CWA tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours. This will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms and another isolated flash flood threat.

The atmosphere dries out some Thursday as the ridge expands overhead. Some typical summertime convection over the terrain is expected but if I had to bet I think stay dry in the valley.

On Friday a weak front will approach from the northwest. SPC currently has areas from our far northern VA counties, further northeast highlighted in a Day 4 risk area. This seems reasonable as shear and instability increase. Forecast soundings suggest there's a possibility of some isolated severe storms further south in our CWA though, with damaging winds being the concern there. However, details are still a little too uncertain to get terribly concerned about it just yet. Post-frontal dry air filters in over the weekend for more comfortable conditions. Then, Sunday into Monday there's a possibility of more heavy rains.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

ISOLD to SCT SHRA/TSRA will continue across East Tennessee through this evening, with additional ISOLD SHRA possible overnight. Have PROB30 and TEMPO groups to account for ongoing convection affecting terminals in the next few hours but there's enough uncertainty in coverage and placement of overnight storms to prohibit including them now. Expect flight categories to drop to MVFR levels late tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 89 71 91 / 20 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 87 71 91 / 40 40 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 70 90 / 50 50 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 68 88 / 60 80 30 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.