textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- Dry and significantly cooler conditions expected tonight. Patchy frost will be possible in the north and also at higher elevations.

- Friday should be dry, but a couple of systems will bring chances of light rain to the region between Saturday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

A strong jet atop a moist boundary layer trapped in the Tennessee valley continued to produce occasional light rain and drizzle for areas near or east of the I-81 corridor late this morning. The upper jet will remain overhead through this afternoon and evening but we shift into the left entrance region by mid/late afternoon, losing any lift associated with the jet streak and thus our support for continued light rainfall.

For tonight, the cold front continues to push southeast away from the region, allowing high pressure and drier air to move in from the northwest. Temperatures will drop into the 30s tonight across sheltered areas north of the I-40 corridor and also places with notable elevation. Suspect we have a chance of seeing some frost in places, although confidence in how widespread that will be is pretty low. Blended the NBM 10th percentile and HREF for temperatures and dewpoints tonight, which yields some patchy frost over portions of the northern Cumberland plateau, and some scattered areas from the far northern TN valley into southwest Virginia, as well as elevated places in our TN mountains. Will forego headlines at the moment due to uncertainties in coverage, and just highlight here and also in the HWO.

Looking ahead, zonal flow is in place across the region on Friday, with a shortwave moving through the Ohio and Tennessee valley areas early Saturday as the eastern CONUS transitions to synoptic scale troughing. There's not much phasing of southern and northern stream energy with this Saturday impulse, with the forecast area largely shown to be beneath confluent upper level flow and a dry region between two areas of precip associated with the northern/southern stream jets for Saturday. We have some slight chance PoPs over a large chunk of the CWA on Saturday morning and that looks perfectly reasonable to me at this time.

Additional upper level energy and another cold front will sweep through the region Sunday and Sunday night, for more chances of widespread rainfall. There doesn't appear to be any severe storms or flooding concerns with this system, just some much needed widespread rainfall.

First half of next week looks largely dry, but upper troughing continues over the eastern CONUS next week so additional systems and rainfall are at least possible the latter half of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Areas of -RADZ continue across East Tennessee but should move away from TAF sites by 19z or 20z at the latest. Afterwards, expect VFR conditions to last through late tonight before fog development becomes a possibility. Currently have some VSBY restrictions mentioned at KTYS and KTRI where fog appears most likely. There was quite a bit of rain at KCHA too, and temperatures will be cool tonight, but think there will be enough high clouds to prohibit fog there.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 74 52 79 / 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 72 51 77 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 42 72 50 77 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.