textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 225 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend, with a warming trend early next week.

- Increasing chances of widespread rain in the Tue/Wed/Thu timeframe of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Biggest weather concern in the near term is the possible frost Saturday night into Sunday morning. Areas of and possibly, widespread frost for portions of northeast TN, southwest VA, the plateau, and the Southern Appalachians. Temperatures nearest or below freezing appear most likely for the highest elevations of the Smokies and Cherokee National Forest where the TN, NC, and VA state lines meet. Since we are now well into the growing season, a Frost Advisory for parts of the forecast area Sunday morning could be likely. Winds will be light, but the limiting factor could be just how close the temperatures can actually reach the dewpoint that morning, given the dry air moving in. Either way, very cold temperatures for early May, where lows at the three climate sites average 20 degrees warmer than what is forecast.

NBM still advertising some slight chance to low-end chance POPs across the southern TN Valley, east TN mountains, and southwest NC tonight into tomorrow. However, the majority of deterministic models keep us mostly dry with the precip just south of our area. Will lower NBM chance POPs to slight chance for just a few isolated areas as I think we stay mostly dry.

Temperatures moderate the first of the week as the upper trough exits and the flow becomes more zonal. Highs next week will mostly be in the 70s. Chances of rain and storms return to the forecast Tue/Wed/Thu as another front approaches and moves through our area. LREF means show moderate/high shear values during this time but very low MUCAPE values. As of now, not overly concerned for severe weather but will continue to monitor. Cooler temperatures will follow this system at the end of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the period at all sites. Winds are expected to become gusty at CHA late in period, with winds out of the north gusting to 20kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 69 44 71 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 65 42 68 / 10 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 66 41 69 / 0 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 62 37 64 / 10 10 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.