textproduct: Morristown
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 603 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
- Mild turning to outright warm weather during the work week.
- Chances for additional moderate rainfall return Wednesday night and onwards into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 136 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
A low stratus deck is hanging over much of the wider region early this morning, most of Wise County had been in fog for a few hours but fog currently appears to be very patchy across the wider area.
With the upper trough quickly exiting off the Eastern Seaboard this morning, upper ridge heights are building in once more, with the H85 ridge will be in passing over the southeastern coast, and we will bask in another round of mild to outright warm temperatures for mid February. Over the western US a strong subtropical jet will bury itself into the Southern Rockies this week and eventually emerge into the Ohio River basin. Disturbances in the broader flow over the northwestern US will eventually bring the next one or two systems to our area with rain during the latter portions of the work week. There's a couple periods of marginally strong H85 flow this week, Wednesday and Friday. Mountains and foothills may see a few periods of stronger winds, though again it's fairly marginal (especially given the continued southwesterly flow all week).
Late in next weekend is increasing signs from both the deterministic and ensemble guidance of at least one strong cold front. There would be some potential of upslope mountain snow should the depictions in the guidance come to fruition. It is still Febrrruary after all!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
Conditions have improved back to VFR at CHA and TYS with TRI still remaining MVFR. Currently, CHA and TYS are likely to remain VFR with TRI improving to VFR by mid-morning. Winds will also be from more of a northeasterly direction at 10 kts or less. Overnight, mostly clear conditions will continue with winds becoming more southerly.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 43 69 55 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 38 67 53 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 38 65 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 36 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
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