textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 721 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- More widespread chances of showers and storms today into the weekend. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, along with isolated flooding

- Temperatures will remain generally near normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Broad troughing currently exists over much of the country, while troughing is over the northeast and PNW. The past couple of days of very isolated chances of showers and storms, will be replaced by increased chances of showers and storms and the return of flooding potential today and into the weekend. For later this afternoon and evening, though shear will be weak, instability will be plentiful with near 2 inch PWAT values. Heavy rain rates possible with any storm, and flash flooding could quickly develop, especially over areas that have experienced multiple inches of rain early in the week and last weekend. Activity wanes tonight, and tomorrow afternoon and evening could very well mimic today.

As of yesterday afternoon with the most recent update, the SPC placed almost all of the forecast area under a MRGL risk for severe weather Saturday into Sunday or Day 3. Day 4 circles a portion of the Carolinas to the east. This increased threat will be due to a shortwave trough sweeping southeastward, bringing a developing frontal system across the area sometime late Saturday into early Sunday. The low pressure center will deepen as it moves towards southeast Canada and New England. There's some uncertainty as for what that may mean for our area. The strongest threat will be well northeast of us.

Following the exit of the front, broad ridging will generally remain over the Intermountain West, while troughing sets up again early to mid week, where we could see another frontal passage and one that we may feel the after effects from for once. The end of the forecast period may see highs fall below 90 and dew points possibly below 70. Leading up until that time, temperatures will generally run around normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 721 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Orographic storms will eventually be more scattered across the area, but no significant changes were made to the TAFs. Likely to see morning convection continue but any terminal impacts are likely to hold off until the afternoon or early evening hours. Light winds outside of any TS driven gust today. Calm overnight period tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 74 91 74 / 50 20 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 74 88 73 / 70 40 70 70 Oak Ridge, TN 91 73 89 73 / 60 20 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 71 86 70 / 10 50 90 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.