textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 941 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Snow tapering off in the TN Valley through the afternoon and evening, with upslope NW winds keeping light snow/flurries going overnight in the mountains.

- Extreme cold through the weekend, with wind chills near or below 0 at times tonight through Monday morning. Wind chills will reach 10 to 20 degrees below zero across the higher elevations.

- A slow warming trend will follow next week with precipitation chances returning by Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 941 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

The Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warnings that were set to expire at 1 AM EST, have been cancelled much earlier due to additional snowfall accumulation coming to an end. Light snow or flurries still possible across far eastern parts of NE TN and SW VA.

KS

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

The ongoing snow event will transition from being synoptically driven to NW flow upslope forcing as the upper low tracks east, away from our area and across the Carolinas this evening. Eastern portions of the TN Valley may see additional light accumulations of 1 inch or less through the rest of the afternoon, but the main accumulations tonight will be in the higher elevations of East TN where a brisk N-NW wind will enhance snow showers through orographic lift. Mountain zones may see an additional 2-5 inches through the rest of the afternoon and tonight. Based on this expected additional accumulation, the expiration times of the WW Advisory and WS Warning will be kept unchanged - 00Z for the WW.Y, 06Z for the WS.W. PoP/Wx grids were changed from the NBM overnight to maintain some slight chance PoPs in the mountains and flurries in NE TN/SW VA until Sunday morning. Given the very cold temperatures aloft, we are likely to have some flurries around as long as there are clouds present.

Impacts to travel will continue through Sunday as very cold temperatures will persist. Low temps tonight will drop to the single digits in most of the TN Valley, and below 0 in the mountains. Add in a wind between 10-20 mph, and wind chills will be dangerously low in the mountains. No changes will be made to the Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning. Taking the snow cover into consideration, the forecast went with NBM 25th percentile for temperatures through Sunday. Any icy spots on roads will likely remain slick through Sunday, with improvement on Monday when we will see more full sun area-wide and temperatures in the 30s.

Late Tuesday and Wednesday, a short-wave/jet streak will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, producing isentropic lift as boundary layer winds become southwesterly and enhance frontogenetic forcing. Precipitation will mainly be in the form of rain but may end as snow showers.

Another northern stream short-wave brings a chance of wintry precipitation for late in the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Outside of KTRI, generally expect VFR flight categories to prevail overnight. Some guidance suggests a developing MVFR deck, but observations aren't confirming that so will stick with the more optimistic forecast. At KTRI however, low clouds and VSBY under 1SM will likely continue for at least a few more hours before the VSBY clears up. Played the persistence route for the MVFR CIGS through 16z, but confidence isn't high on that. Once the snow stops, they may jump to the same OVC035-060 range that most other places in the TN valley are seeing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 13 35 18 46 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 6 26 8 38 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 9 29 12 39 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 2 22 -1 32 / 20 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk- Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox- Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for Lee-Russell- Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.