textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 740 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Widespread showers and storms through tonight.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists this afternoon and evening near the TN/GA border. Overall the odds are low, but the risk of damaging winds or even a tornado aren't zero.

- Heavy rains and an isolated risk of flooding could occur in the far south this afternoon and evening as well. But again, like the severe risk, the overall odds are low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

An upper jet will strengthen over the Ozarks and Ohio valley this afternoon and evening, with shortwave energy moving ENE overtop a cold front situated from Kentucky, southwest over Middle Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Regional radar imagery show the CWA in a lull between morning convection and additional storms to our west, with visible satellite imagery showing some sun breaks and thinning of cloud cover across East Tennessee as well. And temperatures are responding in kind, with a nearly 10 degree increase in surface temps at Chattanooga the last couple of hours. All of this to say that model forecasts showing surface based CAPE values climbing into the 500-1,000 J/kg range later this afternoon in the south seem very reasonable, and with the shear (upwards of 50kt effective bulk shear), the conditional threat of severe storms remains in place there. Further north I think the odds are quite low.

The southern severe threat is not without uncertainty though. Current regional radar imagery matches the 12z NAM Nest fairly well for this hour. This model shows this cluster of storms over the WFO Huntsville forecast area moving east along the TN/GA border over the coming few hours, followed by additional development later this afternoon and evening in those same general areas. The questions I have are, does this activity become severe as it moves through our far southern areas here shortly...does this activity clear to the east quick enough that we can regain some surface instability later on...or finally, does it effectively stabilize the far southern areas heading into the late afternoon and evening. If the latter, then our severe threat is quite low, if it exists at all. The other two scenarios are less clear. It would seem reasonable to assume that the thermal profiles along the TN/GA border show greater instability and an environment that would support stronger wind gusts making it to the surface. As for the tornado threat right now, it seems low as the VAD wind profile off HUN's radar doesn't show favorable conditions. That likely doesn't change in the near term in the southern TN valley either. Later this afternoon, forecast soundings show slightly better conditions but there's still uncertainty. The threat seems to be confined along or just south of the TN/GA border. Further north perhaps some damaging winds could occur but CAM guidance doesn't show much in the way of stronger activity so the thought is that severe chances are limited to the south.

As far as chances for flooding problems, most guidance has shifted the heaviest rain south of our area. It's not out of the question we could see some isolated flooding issues due to training storms, especially from the far southern TN valley eastward into our NC counties where QPF is forecast to be highest. But overall it seems the threat is less than the last few days.

The cold front behind all of this will push through the area late tonight. Rainfall should largely be wrapping up between 06z and 12z, but the upper jet doesn't pull off to the east until Thu afternoon so I wouldn't be surprised to see some showers lingering in mainly the mountains through midday or early afternoon as we transition to a NW flow region just off the surface.

Dry conditions are expected late Thursday through Friday. Zonal flow aloft then brings another disturbance through the area Friday night into Saturday, but rain chances are questionable with that period as we're beneath confluent upper jet energy. Current NBM guidance doesn't have much in the way of rain chances and I'm inclined to think that's reasonable for now. But some guidance does bring some quick hitting rain to the area early Sat morning. Better rain chances exist later in the weekend as a synoptic scale trough works through the eastern CONUS.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Cold front currently passing through the area is bringing light to mod rain to all terminals. CHA still exhibits the best chance of a TS or VCTS, as north towards TYS has become stable. IFR to MVFR CIG/VSBY will persist through the overnight hours with light rain lingering. MVFR CIG may persist a couple of hours after rain ending. Latter half of TAF, sites return to VFR. Winds turn northerly following the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 72 47 74 / 100 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 69 44 72 / 90 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 53 70 43 72 / 90 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 65 40 69 / 90 40 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.