textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Warm temperatures continue through Friday.

- Rain chance returns Wednesday night and continues through the weekend, generally light rain amounts expected.

- Cold temperatures return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

In the upper levels, the ridge over the Southeast breaks down today becoming nearly zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure over the Southeast is weak. Rain chances are very low this afternoon. Rain chances start to increase Wednesday evening through Thursday morning as a vort max moves through the region. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible but not likely with dew points remaining below 60 degrees. By Thursday morning, a surface low will move into KS/MO with a warm front well to our north over IL/IN/OH and a cold front over OK/TX. Rain chances will be low Thursday afternoon/evening. The best chance of rain will be Thursday night into Friday morning as the cold front moves through. The parent low will be over the Great Lakes. Thunder potential is low but a few rumbles cannot be ruled out.

Some stronger winds will be likely in the mountains and foothills through noon Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon through Friday morning as 850 mb winds increase but it looks like gusts will likely remain below advisory criteria at most locations. The higher mountain peaks of GSMNP may get some gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range through Wednesday morning but those higher gusts are not expected to be widespread enough for a Wind Advisory.

Warm temperatures will continue with highs mainly in the 60s. Thursday will be the warmest day with highs getting into the 70s in the Tennessee Valley.

On Saturday, another system is likely to bring rain. This one may have better upper level support. Drying out Sunday as a trough moves through. There is a chance for some light snow accumulations in the higher elevations "horseshoe" on the backside of the system on Sunday but accumulation look very low at this time. Temperatures will be much colder Sunday, Monday, Tuesday with highs mainly in the 40s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

MVFR ceilings will spread into the area south to north with CHA seeing reductions before sunrise. This will not occur at TYS or TRI until later this morning or early afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly winds will become increasingly breezy by early afternoon with gusts to 20 kts or more expected. A few showers will move into the region later this afternoon, mainly around TYS and TRI. While possible for one to move over a terminal, VCSH was maintained as additional impacts are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 59 77 60 / 10 30 20 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 59 74 60 / 20 50 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 63 57 72 58 / 20 60 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 53 71 55 / 20 60 50 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.