textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Unusually warm for October and mostly dry through Thursday.

- A few showers possible north tonight/Thursday, with more showers around Friday/Friday night.

- Frost is possible Saturday night, and to a lesser extent on Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

We remain under the influence of the large upper ridge parked over the southeastern US, which is sponsoring the dry and anomalously hot October days we are currently experiencing. Temperatures will be approaching, or in some cases likely exceeding, daily record highs both today and Thursday.

Record highs today and Thursday: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-14 87(1954) 87(1881) 85(1954) 85(1954) 10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021)

A weak cold front will sag southward toward our northern areas as weak mid/upper level short wave energy skirts by to our north tonight and Thursday, but the front will likely stall to our north and then retreat north. We may see a few showers mainly north tonight and Thursday closer to the front. Ensemble data shows very limited CAPE, so chances for any thunder look quite low.

An upper trough digging in out of Canada will push a much stronger cold front through our area Friday. This front will not bring much in the way of rainfall totals as moisture looks limited and shallow, but we will see mostly light showers especially north and mountains Friday afternoon and Friday night, with a few light showers possibly lingering into Saturday morning. Winds will be gusty Friday from the southwest becoming west and northwest later in the day.

Surface high pressure will build in along with colder and drier air for the weekend. This colder airmass will bring night time temperatures into the range where frost may occur especially across our northern areas. Right now the best chance for widespread frost looks to be Saturday night across the northern half of our area, and a few outlying valley areas across our southern half could see patchy frost as well. Frost potential for Sunday night looks lower, but patchy frost may occur again especially north.

After a cool day Saturday with well below normal high temperatures, we will see a warming trend through next Wednesday with dry conditions continuing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Fog cannot be ruled out toward sunrise, but the probability of it impacting any site looks too low to include. VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will generally be light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 89 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 87 65 82 / 0 10 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 63 86 63 82 / 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 84 61 80 / 10 10 0 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.