textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- A notable warm up begins tomorrow and continues through Thursday, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s by Wed and Thu across low elevation areas.

- Low rain chances start to creep in by Friday but Saturday and Sunday have potential for higher rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The synoptic scale trough over the eastern CONUS, anchored by the ongoing Nor'easter over New England coastline today, will begin shifting east today, allowing upper ridging to begin building in from our west tonight through late this week. Subsequently temperatures will respond, warming significantly over the next couple of days. Highs will climb into the low 80s in the north by Wednesday, and into the upper 80s to perhaps low 90s for the central and southern low elevation areas. It won't be record territory, but quite warm nonetheless. Otherwise, dry conditions continue through Thursday before rain chances make a return sometime Friday into the weekend.

Speaking of the rain, there's rather good agreement amongst guidance on how the overall pattern evolves late this week into the weekend. An upper low will move ENE from the plains towards the Ohio valley late Thursday, opening up as it does so in response to a strong shortwave moving through the Canadian side of the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure then builds across the Midwest and Ohio valley areas, leading to a cold front being positioned somewhere across from the Ohio valley southwest into West Tennessee by Friday, pushing south of the region by Saturday. Meanwhile upper high pressure will remain anchored off the Florida and southeast coastline, with broad southwesterly flow pumping Gulf moisture northward into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachian region Friday into the weekend. The only uncertainty to speak of with how this pattern plays out, revolves around when exactly the rain makes a return. Current NBM guidance has PoPs in the forecast for Friday afternoon which is not unreasonable. But there still is a decent signal that suggests rain holds off until Saturday. For now, will continue to side with NBM guidance until there is clarity in the timing. Regardless of the onset, the pattern suggests the rainy conditions continue through the weekend before another trough and associated cold front dive southeast from Minnesota and kick the rain east of us sometime Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail at all terminals through the 18z TAF period. The one caveat would be KTRI where a persistence forecast would support another round of fog and/or low clouds again tonight. That should be short lived however. Otherwise, will winds may occasionally get slightly over 10kt this afternoon, winds should be light through the period, especially tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 83 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.