textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 635 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Record heat is expected today with warm temperatures continuing into Friday.

- Rain chances return Friday into Friday night, especially in northern areas, as a front arrives from the west.

- Much cooler conditions are expected this weekend with the first frost of the season likely for the Plateau, southwest Virginia, and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains Sunday morning. A warming trend will follow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 433 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Currently, ridging is centered to our east with a weak low and stationary frontal boundary located to our north. Some shower activity has continued to our north with low-end rain chances in southwest Virginia. Otherwise, record high temperatures are expected again today with the records and year of occurrence listed below:

Record highs Today: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021)

Similarly warm temperatures are expected tonight with the system to the north deepening as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes by morning. The frontal boundary associated with the system will approach from the west through the day ahead of a Canadian high. Moisture will be sufficient for low-end rain chances but limited based on moisture and fast timing. The front will move through the area by Friday night, bringing northwesterly flow and much cooler temperatures to the region by Saturday. With lingering low-level moisture, PoPs will persist over the mountains and foothills into the daytime. With 850mb temperatures reaching near to below 0 Celsius some mix with snow is possible across the highest peaks. Otherwise, a breezy day with highs in the 50s is expected for most of the region.

Saturday night into Sunday morning, the high will be centered just to our north and east with subsidence, leading to strong radiational cooling conditions. The first frost of the year is very likely for Plateau, northeast Tennessee, and the Tennessee/North Carolina mountains at a minimum. By Sunday, height rises are expected as troughing moves off to the east, allowing temperatures to rise back into the 60s. Another cool morning is expected on Monday with continued subsidence. High pressure will remain in place for the middle of the week with gradual height rises promoting a continued warming trend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR throughout much of the period. There will be some scattered mid level clouds around 5,000 to 10,000 feet AGL to start. Winds will become light and variable winds. A cold front will begin to approach on Friday with winds turning from the southwest to the northwest and wind speeds increasing to 10-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots Friday afternoon. MVFR cigs will also accompany the frontal passage arriving by the end of the TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 83 50 62 / 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 82 49 59 / 0 30 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 81 48 59 / 0 10 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 80 45 55 / 0 50 70 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.