textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Widespread showers and storms through Thursday morning.

- Periods of heavy rain are likely. Some flooding concerns are possible given the potential for training showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Widespread flooding seems unlikely though.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists this afternoon/evening if surface-based instability can develop. If it does, damaging winds will be possible, and even a low end tornado risk will be present.

- Southwesterly winds will be gusty today especially in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Smoky Mountains through 11 AM EDT.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf. A trough is over the Midwest. Nearly zonal flow over the Tennessee Valley will become more southwesterly today. A surface low is currently near OH/PA with a cold front extending southwest into Texas. This boundary will slowly sag southward moving into Middle Tennessee and East Kentucky by late this morning. This slow moving boundary will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms from early this morning through tonight. The cold front will likely move through the region around midnight tonight or shortly after. Rain will continue overnight but thunder chances will decrease through the night as drier air moves into the region. Thursday, showers will linger across the region as the cold front remains just to the south in the morning hours. Thursday afternoon showers will continue as a shortwave moves through the region.

Southwesterly winds are increasing in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills as the low level jet strengthens. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Smoky Mountains through 11 AM EDT this morning. Gusts up to 45-50 mph will be possible in the Smoky Mountains.

Through early morning:

Currently dew points are low in the 40s throughout East Tennessee. Dew points will increase overnight as southerly flow continues. The cold front is currently near the Ohio River in IN/IL/KY stretching back into Northwest Arkansas. Storm activity along and ahead of the front is currently weaker than CAMs predicted. Very little development occurred in Arkansas. The latest HRRR run has a strong line of storms developing near the Mississippi River near Arkansas and west Tennessee. The HRRR has this line weakening significantly as it moves into Middle Tennessee. In East Tennessee, shower and storm activity will increase overnight with the best chances in the early morning hours. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible but severe storms are not likely through the morning hours.

Today:

Deep layer southwesterly flow continues to pump moisture from the Gulf into the region. By this afternoon, Precipitable water values will reach 1.7 inches in the Tennessee Valley. Exceeding the 90th percentile which is around 1.4 inches for May 6. Multiple rounds of heavy rain may lead to some flooding issues especially along and south of I-40 where rain amounts are expected to be 1 to 2.5 inches. The southern half of the region has been the hardest hit with drought conditions. Overall, widespread flooding is not expected but maybe some pockets of localized flooding.

The severe threat for late this afternoon and early evening is still complicated. The HRRR has strong to severe storms along and south of the GA/TN border. Some of the other CAMs have a line of strong storms all the way into the Central Tennessee Valley. Effective shear will be favorable around 50 knots. Instability may be a limiting factor with cloud cover lingering all day but with CAPE expected to be around 500 J/kg and dew points in the 60s severe storms will be possible mainly south of I-40. A low end tornado threat will be possible if storms are able to organize with 0-1 km shear expected to be near 20 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday:

It looks like the cold front will move through the region around midnight tonight or shortly after. The threat for severe storms will be over by midnight. The localized flooding threat may linger into the overnight hours but late into the night the threat will decrease as drier air moves in.

Showers will linger on Thursday morning as the front is still slow to move and will likely be just south of the region. The flooding threat will be over by morning with a much drier air mass moving in with dew points in the 50s. Thunder is also not expected on Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave will move through the Tennessee Valley kicking the front out but kicking off another round of showers. High pressure will be centered over the region Thursday night.

Friday through Tuesday:

Friday and Saturday look mostly dry with weak troughing and high pressure. Another system is likely Sun/Mon and may have some good upper level support. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.&&

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Will see showers and thunderstorms around at times through the period, and will try to time best chances for thunder with prob30 groups. VFR conditions to start, but will see more MVFR/IFR conditions as the precipitation increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 59 73 50 / 100 100 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 56 69 46 / 100 90 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 54 70 45 / 100 90 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 53 65 42 / 100 100 50 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.