textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Dry and cool conditions are expected today with very low RH.

- A warming trend will continue through the week with a system impacting the area Thursday. Strong mountain winds, widespread showers, and isolated thunder in the south are expected.

- Afterwards, drier and cooler conditions return.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Currently, broad troughing is lifting off to the northeast with recent arctic high pressure having weakened some and tracked to our southeast. This setup has continued the cold and dry trend that has been seen in recent days. Southerly flow will be increasing and lead to a continuation of the warming trend. With the continued subsidence and dryness of the airmass, another day of low RH's can be expected with values in the 20s for most. Winds won't be too strong because of a weak MSLP gradient, but some higher gusts are possible as 850mb winds increase to around 25 kts. By Wednesday, high pressure will move further to the east with further height rises and more zonal flow aloft. Focus will turn towards deepening troughing across the Northern Plains with below 990mb surface low pressure over North Dakota. This system will track towards the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday with its associated cold front extending south.

As this system approaches, southerly flow will strengthen significantly ahead of the front due to the MSLP gradient and a broad 850mb jet of 50 to 60 kts. In addition to approaching rain chances, this will turn focus towards strong winds, especially in the mountains. The MSLP gradient and 850mb flow will be strong, but the surface low will be very far north. Still, chances are increasing for a mountain wave event Thursday evening. With respect to shower and thunderstorm chances, the latest data continues to show instability in southern portions of the area, mainly to be elevated. This will be sufficient for low-end thunder chances but with mainly showers across the region.

After this system moves east, cooler and drier air will return on Friday with more zonal flow aloft. Overall, temperatures will be below normal but still much warmer than what we recently saw. Throughout the weekend, rain chances will be limited due to high pressure, but some solutions show variations of a weaker system later on.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR with light winds generally less than 10 knots this TAF period. High clouds will begin building in late in the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 32 54 39 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 31 53 34 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 48 31 51 34 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 28 49 32 / 0 0 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.