textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 655 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Medium chance of light rain in the southern Plateau and southern TN Valley on Sunday and Sunday night; most of the area stays dry.

- Dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next week.

- Increasing chances of rain and gusty mountain winds around mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Our stretch of quiet and dry weather is at the beginning of the end. An expansive surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region will slowly drift toward the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. This will keep the region dry and temperatures mild for Halloween. Saturday will be pleasant. Winds will gradually shift from easterly to southeasterly as mid to high level cloud deck builds in. This will support a mostly cloudy day with filtered sunshine - a treat for our trick-or-treaters! Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 70s Saturday afternoon with temps falling into the upper 50s Saturday evening. It'll remain dry with near-zero chance of rain.

A weak shortwave will track from the southern Plains into the region on Sunday. This will lead to an increase in moisture ahead of the disturbance, but the residual dry air in place from the long stretch under the influence of the high pressure will limit precipitation chances until late Sunday into Monday. The primary precipitation mechanism is tied to broad isentropic lift that should slowly saturate the dry air and support isolated to scattered showers late Sunday into Sunday night. Any rain that falls will be generally light and insignificant given the low level dry air eating into sensible perception.

The first week of November will bring a legitimate pattern change across the CONUS. Guidance support a more amplified look that'll lead to more precipitation chances locally. For Monday & Tuesday, ridging will build in and return the familiar warm & dry weather back to the region. Upstream, a potent trough will dig into the Plains and begin the slow trek eastward. This system and the associated surface cold front arrives sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will bring much needed rain across the TN Valley. While instability looks rather meager at this time (limiting severe potential), sufficient synoptic forcing along the pre-frontal trough should support some thunderstorms and widespread rainfall. Behind the front Thursday into Friday, northwest flow aloft will usher in cooler air that will support more seasonable temperatures for the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Overall, quiet aviation conditions are expected with increasing winds, especially at CHA from the southeast. Increasing clouds are also expected through the afternoon, mainly at or above 10,000 feet. Light rain is also possible at CHA by early Sunday morning, but it has been left out of the TAF because of no impact expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 57 67 55 / 0 10 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 56 70 53 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 68 52 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 51 70 50 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.