textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Additional showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become strong to severe, especially over the Plateau and the southern Tennessee valley this evening. Localized flooding will also be possible.

- Isolated damaging winds and flooding will be possible with additional storms across far northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia Sunday afternoon.

- Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day Monday through Friday, especially during the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Upper level pattern consists of a shortwave diving through Mississippi River Valley towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. A warm front lifting through the CWA has been the driving force for showers and a few thunderstorms this morning and early afternoon. While a few isolated showers can be noted behind the main rain shield, some clearing is present across portions of central Tennessee into northern Alabama and along the Cumberland Plateau. A trailing cold front is expected to progress through the region this evening, with additional shower and storm development along and ahead of this front. There are still some discrepancies among CAMs in how well organized or the exact coverage area of convection along this feature, however, one trend that catches my eye is that of the NAMs.

Latest surface observations show temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 80s in the southern valley and plateau, upper 70s on the northern plateau, but remaining in the low 70s in portions of the central valley and eastward. The NAM seems to depict a trend in storm coverage that best aligns with where precip has lingered longest this afternoon... one where storms that develop over middle Tennessee persist into the Plateau, but as the activity progresses further east into the CWA, the focus is generally along and south of I-40 where better destabilization occurs among higher theta-e advection.

Overall, HREF depicts around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and effective shear between 20 and 25kts as this activity is expected to take place. Additionally, PWAT will be well into the 90th percentile. This will lead to damaging winds and isolated flooding as the primary hazards. However, the shear is just strong enough that a low tornado risk will is in place, primarily along the Cumberland Plateau and southern Valley where the greatest destabilization has occurred. Of course any storm that has enough rotation for a potential tornado could also exhibit small hail as well. Activity will gradually trend downward in intensity around midnight or shortly thereafter.

As we head into Sunday afternoon, a few additional showers and storms may develop along the slowly progressing cold front. Latest trend in CAMs favors far northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia for additional convective initiation. Strong effective shear and increasing DCAPEs will support at least a isolated wind damage and flooding threat where storms train along the boundary. Depending on how much clearing takes place and resulting CAPE profiles, cannot rule out some small hail as well.

An upper low is expected to be cutoff as we head into the new work week, which will continue to promote daily chances of showers and storms among slightly below normal temperatures. Some deterministic models begin to eject the low late week, with a downward trend in precip chances and slight warming trend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Will have a tempo thunder group at CHA to start due to the showers and thunderstorms moving through there early. Thunder is possible at TYS but the probability looks too low to include in the TAF, so will include a tempo MVFR group with a shower. TRI unlikely to see thunder until late in the period, so will have a prob30 thunder groupt there late. CHA looks likely to see an MVFR level cig for several hours later tonight/early Sunday, and there is a good chance of it moving into TYS as well. TRI will likely stay VFR outside of any showers or storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 86 70 85 / 90 30 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 86 70 84 / 80 40 40 80 Oak Ridge, TN 71 84 69 84 / 90 40 40 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 83 68 82 / 70 80 60 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.