textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 236 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Increasing chances of rain, and a few storms, on Wednesday. Low confidence, but a few strong storms possible across northeast TN into southwest VA. Gusty winds across the higher peaks of the east TN mountains are also expected.

- If you've been waiting on summer, it arrives this coming weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s appear likely for the valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected overnight, with most areas in the mid to upper 40s. Tomorrow, a cold front approaches from the northwest. Showers and a few storms are expected to develop along and just ahead of the front. Though the risk is low, there is still the potential to see a few strong storms across northeast TN into southwest VA. The marginal risk for severe storms has shifted south and now include these aforementioned areas. The main driver for this marginal risk is still primarily due to the shear that will be in place with 40 to 50kts of bulk shear. The main limiting factor continues to be instability. Like the LREF in previous days, the HREF retains the roughly 40 to 60% probs of seeing at least 500 J/kg CAPE. The driver of this lower instability are the dewpoints, models generally show dewpoints in the lower 50s. It's hard to get severe weather with dewpoints this low. If we do see any strong stronger storms, isolated damaging winds is the primary hazard.

Aside from the showers and storms, winds across the east TN mountains still look breezy/gusty with this system. Wind gusts from 20 to 30 mph are expected across the higher elevations during the afternoon and possibly up to 40 mph Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Some 20 to 30 mph gusts are also expected across valley locations.

We see a brief cooldown on Thursday behind the front, but with plenty of dry air and sunshine returning. Thursday night will be a tad chilly again with lows back down into the low to mid 40s for most areas.

Temperatures ramp up this coming weekend and into early next week as ridging returns. Temps in the upper 80s to low 90s look likely by Sunday through early next week. There are still some chances for showers and storms in the forecast on Saturday but models have shifted the precip a little further north due to the strength of the ridge. We may end up with a situation where our northern areas see some precip but we are dry across the southern TN Valley.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Light winds expected during the near term but southwesterly winds pickup toward the end of the period and will continue into Wednesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 82 53 76 / 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 79 49 72 / 0 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 79 48 72 / 0 40 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 74 45 67 / 0 70 30 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.