textproduct: Morristown

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 308 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

- Meager rainfall late tonight into midday Monday.

- Another system on Wednesday may bring light rain to primarily locations north of Knoxville.

- Summer-like heat arrives next weekend with 80s to near 90 degree highs in the valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Only real change over the last several forecast iterations has been the timing of the rain gradually shifting further into the day on Monday. Could still see some light showers/sprinkles late tonight, but the vast bulk of hardly anything is now expected Monday morning into around early afternoon. The HRRR has a few locations in our far northeastern counties getting slightly over a quarter of an inch, though REFS probabilities at that threshold aren't even over 40%. Locations Knoxville and south can expect even less to zero.

Temperatures for Tuesday morning incremented slightly warmer, though given clear skies I still would be wary of some patchy frost in portions of the high elevations and southwest Virginia. Fog is also possible thanks to the light rain. Additional light rain chances, and maybe (maybe!) a rumble of thunder in northeastern TN and north on Wednesday as a second upper trough pivots through. Upper heights rise thereafter and we start to see a more significant return flow from the Deep South, the combination of which means we enter a more legitimate warm up next weekend with a potential arrival of 90F weather for the southern valley.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Clouds will gradually increase in advance of an approaching cold front. TAFs to remain VFR and dry until roughly 12z, when uncertainty over MVFR potential increases while light rain showers cross from west to east through the end of the TAF period. Not confident if any terminal will drop to MVFR conditions, but some potential is present region wide. Winds to remain light with a northerly pivot with the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 76 50 80 / 10 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 73 46 77 / 20 60 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 73 45 77 / 30 50 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 68 41 73 / 40 60 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.

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