textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon into this evening, with chances generally higher north than south. The threat of severe weather is low overall, but there is potential for localized flooding and isolated damaging wind gusts especially across our northern and eastern counties.

- Very hot for the weekend and likely into Monday, especially south and central valley areas. Then it will remain on the hot side through the week but likely a bit less oppressive.

- Next week, best chance for showers and storms will be Monday with drier weather expected midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the south and Midwest today. A trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The northwest flow pattern continues with storms forming upstream in the Midwest then riding the ridge down through Kentucky and into Southwest Virgina and Northeast Tennessee. This afternoon and early evening showers and storms will be isolated in the south and more scattered to the north. A minor wave will move through the Ohio Valley this evening bringing storms a little farther north into West Virginia. The best chance for storms this afternoon and evening remains in Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. SPC brings the marginal risk to around the Knoxville area for today and the slight risk clips our northeastern-most counties in Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee. Flash flooding will continue to be a concern especially in Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee where soils are saturated. At the moment confidence is not high enough for a flood watch with some guidance bringing the bulk of the storms to our north and east.

Heat indices will be high today especially in the Southern Tennessee Valley and Plateau. A Heat Advisory has been issued for those counties for this afternoon where heat indices are expected to reach 105 degrees or higher. By Sunday and Monday, the Heat Advisory will likely need to be expanded northward into the Knoxville area.

On Sunday, showers and storms will be more isolated as the ridge flattens and we break free from the northwest flow pattern. Even with a decrease in storm activity, there is still a possibility strong winds or isolated flooding in the storms that do form.

By Monday, the ridge weakens and the trough dips into the Tennessee Valley. A decaying cold front will plunge southward on Monday. As a result, the best chances of rain will be Monday with the best coverage in the northeast half of the region. By mid week, a ridge will move back over the Tennessee Valley. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly dry and late in the week POPs look typical for this time of year with mostly diurnal convection.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Relatively calm can be expected through the early morning hours. Clearing skies at TRI may bring the chance of fog within the next couple of hours. TEMPO added to reflect the chance. Afternoon and evening PROB30 for all terminals later today for increased chances of showers and storms. Winds relatively light out of the west.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 97 76 98 76 / 10 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 75 95 75 / 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 94 74 95 74 / 30 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 71 90 71 / 50 10 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for Bledsoe- Bradley-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Rhea-Sequatchie-West Polk.

VA...NONE.