textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Freezing rain, except wintry mix for southwest Virginia will end this morning. Significant ice accumulations have been reported with some power outages especially across the Plateau and western sections of the Tennessee valley.

- High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and ridge tops today. Gusts of 70 mph, except up to 90 mph possible for Cove Mountain.

- Light snow accumulations possible tonight for areas north of interstate 40 and far east Tennessee mountains especially across the higher elevations.

- Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected. Cold Weather Advisory for the entire area for late tonight/Monday morning. Cold Weather Watch/Advisories likely needed for Monday night/Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Currently much of the forecast area is hovering around 32 degrees where light freezing rain is occurring, except 25 to 30 degrees across southwest Virginia where a wintry mix is reported.

Ice accumulations of 0.15 to 0.30 inch have been reported over much of the area with 1 to 3 inches of snow over southwest Virginia.

Increasing southerly 850mb jet is pulling warmer air aloft with the zero line is north of the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with the shallow cold air slowly eroding. Also, downslope winds off the far east Tennessee mountains is also eroding the cold air across the eastern side of the valley. Given these factors we continue to expect a gradual moderation of temperatures early this morning changing the precipitation to rain. HREF and REFS depict the increasing temperatures through daybreak thus have set the end times of the winter headlines for 14-16Z this morning.

For today, models depict a anomaly strong 300mb jet of 190+ knots over southern Canada with another jet exiting the southern stream trough. Broad divergence over the Tennessee valley especially this afternoon/early evening will strong the fronto-genetic forcing allowing for a band of showers. NAEFS shows anomaly strong 850mb moisture transport and PWs for this afternoon so a period of moderate to heavy rain will accompany this band. Locally heavy rainfall amounts expected but ongoing drought conditions will limit any localizing flooding potential.

Strong 850mb southerly jet of 70+ knots and strong pressure gradient from Carolina surface wedge and lee trough over the Tennessee foothills will produce a high-end mountain wave event for the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills. Gusts of 60-70 mph will be common with the potential of 90+ mph at Cove Mountain.

For tonight, a strong cold front will usher in arctic like air into the region with wind chills dropping to 3 to 8 degrees above zero across much of the region, except 5 to 10 degrees below zero across the far east Tennessee mountains. A cold weather advisory has been issued for the entire region for late tonight and Monday morning.

The cold air will also squeeze out flurries and snow showers over the northern half of the area and orographic lift will enhance snow showers for the favored upslope areas tonight. Minor accumulations possible especially over the higher terrain.

For Monday and Tuesday, very cold arctic airmass with either cold weather warning or advisories needed for much of the region Monday night.

As we move into mid-week, max temperatures begin to moderate but remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal Wednesday. Another cold front will bring a reinforcing cold airmass by late next week with temperatures struggling to get above freezing late this week. Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Strong inversion with strong winds aloft continue the LLWS risk this morning. Jet should begin weakening around midday. Otherwise, rain is the predominant expected precipitation type for the bulk of the period, before it exits this evening with a light potential for snow or sleet in northeastern areas post 03z. CIGs at KCHA and KTYS will slowly improve to MVFR today, while KTRI will deteriorate to MVFR or IFR when the mountain wind event weakens, as is typical.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 18 31 11 / 100 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 47 18 28 7 / 100 40 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 44 16 28 6 / 100 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 17 25 5 / 100 60 20 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Ice Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Ice Storm Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Rhea-Roane-Sequatchie.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for Campbell- Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Johnson-Morgan- Northwest Carter-Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Northwest Monroe-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene- Southeast Monroe-Washington TN-West Polk.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.