textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 113 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Elevated fire weather concerns through Friday.

- Wind gusts of 20-30 mph across the higher terrain of the Smoky Mountains and Southwest Virginia on Saturday.

- Frost and freeze possible north northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The forecast period begins with a transition from a dominant ridge over the Southeast to a more active, zonal flow pattern. Through Friday, high-amplitude ridging will maintain temperatures 3 to 8 degrees above seasonal norms, with surface highs in the 70s and low 80s. By Friday night, a northern stream shortwave will track across the Great Lakes, dragging a weakening surface cold front into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This front will be moisture-starved due to the lack of significant Gulf return, though sounding data indicates enough boundary-layer instability for scattered light showers, primarily for areas north of I-40. Model ensembles indicate a high probability greater than 70 percent of QPF totals remaining below 0.20 inches for the majority of the region. In the wake of the front, a tightening surface gradient will contribute to breezy conditions.

Post-frontal northwest flow will usher in a surge of cooler Canadian air for the weekend, restoring seasonal temperatures by Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

For the rest of the night and into the morning hours, the main focus will be low-level winds. TYS is likely to remain breezy at the surface with CHA and TRI seeing lighter surface winds. As such, LLWS was added in for those two sites with TRI seeing the stronger winds near 2,000 feet AGL. Throughout the day, surface winds will increase with gusts to 20 kts expected. Rain showers will move in from the north by late afternoon, along with a shift to more northerly winds. During and after the rain, MVFR can be expected at all of the sites into the evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 40 63 41 / 40 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 36 59 35 / 80 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 77 36 59 35 / 80 30 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 33 55 31 / 90 40 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.