textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

- It will be cold and dry through Tuesday night, with the coldest conditions tonight into Tuesday morning when below zero wind chills will be possible in the higher elevations.

- A chance for light rain and snow showers arrives for Wednesday night into Friday. Minor snow accumulation will be possible especially across the higher elevations of the mountains.

- A higher chance for precipitation returns for Friday night into the weekend with chances for rain, snow, and possibly ice. High uncertainty exists with the axis of heaviest precipitation and precipitation types, but this system should be monitored closely over the coming days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Currently, longwave troughing is in place over the eastern CONUS with colder than normal temperatures over our region. It will be dry and quite cold tonight through Tuesday night, and will be especially cold tonight into Tuesday. The cold air in place will combine with enough wind to push wind chill values to below zero at times over the higher elevations of the mountains tonight into early Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will be around 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals.

The center of the cold surface high will slide off to our east by Wednesday, providing another dry day but with moderating temperatures.

Models generally agree that a weak short wave and cold front will bring a chance for some light precipitation in the Wednesday night into Thursday time frame, although this system looks to have very limited moisture to work with. Thermal profiles suggest rain possibly changing to light snow showers or flurries before ending in the valley, with a better chance of light snow showers over the mountains. Light snow accumulations of less than one inch will be possible across the higher elevations of the mountains with this weak system. Another weak disturbance moving through the flow may trigger additional light rain and snow showers Thursday night into Friday.

By the weekend, there is an increasing probability of a significant winter weather event affecting the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. Models are still struggling with consistency and poor agreement on the details, but are in better agreement that a nearly stationary frontal boundary will be located across our region as a strengthening upper level jet induces a broad area of upper divergence during the Friday night into Saturday night time frame. Right now, it looks like a period of significant overrunning precipitation will occur during the Friday night through Saturday night time frame near and north of the front, with the bulk of the precipitation likely to occur Saturday into Saturday night. There is still a lot of uncertainty given the aforementioned model disagreement and inconsistencies, as well as the fact that it is still several days out. However, thermal profiles suggest a significant portion of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow, with very significant snow accumulations possible in a band somewhere across our region although the location of the heaviest snow band and whether or not it will be over our area is still uncertain. Current NBM data shows the probability of exceeding 4 inches of snow during the 72 hours ending 7 PM Sunday is around 20 to 30 percent across our southern counties, then increasing up to around 50 to 60 percent over our central and northern counties. A lot will likely change over the coming days, so please continue to monitor the latest forecast updates over the week ahead as we refine areas of likely impacts.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

No aviation impacts this period, clear skies and light winds are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 24 53 37 / 0 0 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 20 53 36 / 0 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 36 21 50 35 / 0 0 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 17 49 33 / 0 0 0 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.