textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 157 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Strong gusty winds will be possible in the higher elevations and foothills of the east Tennessee mountains especially Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday.

- Rain chances will increase late Tuesday night into Thursday period. A few thunderstorms will be possible mainly Wednesday into Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Our weather has returned to a mild & dry look thanks to the combination of a sprawling surface high and upper level ridging across the eastern CONUS. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s Tuesday with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Our next system arrives on Wednesday into Wednesday night that will bring a mixture of strong winds in the mountains and foothills and another round of beneficial rainfall across the region. Winds will begin to increase Tuesday night and peak on Wednesday with gusts up to advisory level possible.

The cold front passage will bring a round of showers with a few thunderstorms possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. Severe weather is not expected. Forecast soundings show limited instability (50-150 J/Kg) despite sufficient shear (30+ knots) present. This is not enough to get meaningful convection development outside of thunder chances. There will be a good surge of moisture associated with this system as southerly flow advects higher PW air into the region over the next 48 hours. QPF amounts generally range between 0.25" to 0.75" outside of a few locations with locally higher values. At this point though any rainfall is beneficial given how dry the last 4 to 6 weeks have been. Our system and front will exit the area on Thursday leaving behind northwest flow and cold air advection. This will keep afternoon PoPs present on Thursday with isolated showers possible. Temperatures will begin to cool as we head into the weekend, but the cold air advection isn't that cold. We'll ultimately end up with seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s Thursday through the weekend. Winds will taper off on Thursday as the mountain wave set up resolves. The drier, cooler airmass will lead to a rather pleasant weekend with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures.

Looking at the end of the period, there will be another shortwave trough that will drop out of the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest Sunday night into Monday that will support a chance of precipitation.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

The main concern into this morning will be LLWS, which has been added in for CHA. While possible at TYS and TRI, the risk is highest at CHA because of low-level winds. Otherwise, cloud cover will be limited through the day with surface winds also being strongest at CHA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 64 71 61 / 0 60 100 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 61 74 61 / 0 20 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 78 59 72 60 / 0 20 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 56 73 59 / 0 0 70 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.