textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 109 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Showers and a few storms are likely today, mainly across southeast Tennessee, southwest North Carolina, and the East Tennessee mountains. Isolated flooding will be possible again due to recent heavy rainfall.

- Additional showers and possibly an isolated storm are possible again tonight into Saturday.

- Sunday through most of next week, temperatures will rise well into the 80s and low 90s with isolated to scattered storms at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Currently, mid/upper troughing is centered off to the northeast, along with surface high pressure. A frontal boundary that produced a lot of the recent rainfall is along and south of I-40. This has kept drier and milder air in the north with deep moisture remaining in southern portions of the area. As such, additional showers and isolate storms are likely today, focused towards southeast Tennessee, southwest North Carolina, and the East Tennessee mountains. Based on the CAMs, better coverage and intensity remains south, but recent saturation will pose at least an isolated flooding threat in those areas.

Tonight into Saturday, this boundary will weaken and track further north with another shortwave swinging through. Overall, moisture will be lessened with minimal instability, likely resulting in mainly showers. By Sunday, the shortwave will deepen to our east with ridging and high pressure expanding from the west. With drier air in place, rain chances will be limited, but height rises will push temperatures further into the 80s to near 90.

The synoptic pattern will remain fairly unchanged throughout much of next week with a 5,940m to 5,970m high centered over the desert southwest and a general troughing pattern to our east. There are varying indications of shortwaves moving through the region, potentially moreso around Wednesday. The general northwest flow pattern will keep chances for showers and storms in the forecast with eventual shortwaves elevating the coverage. The more limited coverage should certainly decrease the flooding threat well below what has been seen recently.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Obs show highly variable ceilings across East TN, which makes for an uncertain forecast. The general expectaion is that MVFR cigs will increase and become predominant at all TAF sites around 10Z. TRI is expected to have showers developing in the area at the time, with a lesser chance at TYS. Gradual lifting of cigs to VFR is expected in the afternoon, with showers potentially in the vicinity of CHA this afternoon, with a 30% chance of one at the terminal producing MVFR vis/cigs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 72 87 73 / 70 10 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 85 71 / 60 10 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 87 69 85 70 / 20 10 40 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 67 81 66 / 60 30 20 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.