textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Dry weather with more moderate temps/humidity through Friday.

- A wet pattern returns for the weekend into next week.

- Low-end chance for a few strong storms on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Discussion:

Dry weather, along with more comfortable temps and dewpoints are expected through Friday. This is due to our post-frontal airmass and the remaining deep trough in place across the eastern U.S. which continues to provide northerly flow across our region.

Friday into Saturday, southerly flow returns as the East Coast trough pushes further east and a new shortwave and trough emerge from out of the northern/central Great Plains. This southerly flow will bring moisture back into the area. Increasing moisture combined with incoming trough/low pressure and cold front will lead to chances for showers and storms returning to the area this weekend. Something to keep an eye on will be the positioning and timing of the low and cold front arrival. With it's approach, we do see an uptick in 850mb winds and a little bit of upper jet support. If the front were to come through during peak heating, we certainly could see a few strong storms as there will be at least some shear present. Confidence is very low though as many things have to come together for this to occur. Again, it's worth keeping an eye on.

Thereafter, there are still model differences on whether or not this low pressure system then becomes cut-off. If it does, then chances for showers and storms will remain elevated into next week as this low continues to slowly spins across the region with no where to go. The previous Day 5, now day 4, ERO still mountains a slight/marginal risk for excessive rainfall across our area.

Bottom line, nice through Friday. Unsettled weather this weekend, potentially lasting into next week. Just beyond the end of this forecast period, it looks like the cut-off low loses it's circulation and becomes no more with high pressure then building back into the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions with light northerly winds expected at CHA and TYS through the period. Mostly VFR at TRI but TEMPO for MVFR fog and ceilings in overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 88 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 84 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 64 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.