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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Unusually warm this week with dry weather through Thursday.

- Patchy fog potential Tuesday morning. Use caution if encountering fog.

- Frost potential this weekend mainly in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The upper level trough has moved out of the region and a ridge is now over the Southeast into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure is over the Southeast. This pattern will hold through Thursday resulting in above normal temperatures and dry weather. Temperatures will be about 10 to 13 degrees above normal with a strong ridge in place. With mostly clear skies tonight and calm winds, patchy fog development is likely. With residual ground moisture remaining in many places, fog may be widespread. Guidance is mixed on dense fog potential.

By late afternoon or evening on Thursday, low rain chances start to return to the northern higher terrain areas as an upper level trough moves through the Midwest and a surface low develops near IL/IN. The surface low will track northeast through the Great Lakes bringing a cold front through the Tennessee Valley on Friday. Rain chances will be low for most of the region with this front. The best rain chances will be in Southwest Virginia and the higher elevations.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry and much cooler as a trough moves over the Eastern U.S. On Saturday, highs will be mainly in the lower 60s throughout the Tennessee Valley which is about 10 degrees below normal. Westerly winds behind the cold front will be gusty late Friday through Saturday with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible at times.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Fog development appears likely tonight, especially near area lakes and rivers. This lends confidence to have VLIFR in a TEMPO at TRI. Model guidance drops TYS to LIFR, which seems reasonable. Confidence of fog is lower at CHA, so will just have MVFR for now. VFR conditions return around 13-14Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 83 61 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.

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