textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 234 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected through this evening. A low-end risk for isolated flooding remains due to recent heavy rainfall.

- Additional storms expected on Monday, a few of which could be strong to severe. If all things line up, the environment is supportive of winds up to 65 mph and 1 to 1.5 inch hail.

- A drier weather pattern develops beyond Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A weak midlevel shortwave will allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms across the area through this evening. Sounding profiles show long and skinny CAPE this afternoon, efficient heavy rain environment, but PW values aren't as high as yesterday. However, PWs are still enough to support some moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Combine this with the recent flooding and heavy rains, and a low-end risk for isolated flooding will be in place through this evening.

The next round of showers and storms arrives on Monday afternoon/evening in the form of an upstream MCS. As the previous forecast mentioned, this round of convection appears to have the potential to reach severe levels. MLCAPE values still show around 2000 J/kg, effective shear around 35 kts, and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg.

Low level winds profiles do not look supportive of a tornado threat. Straight line wind damage up to 65 mph and 1 to 1.5 inch hail appear to be the main threats with these storms. However, as the previous forecast mentioned, CAMS are still in disagreement on where this MCS tracks. Some are still showing it impacting portions of our area (mainly south of I-40), while others are showing it missing us entirely, due to the MCS being further to our west. We should have a much better idea on timing and potential downstream location impacts once this system has actually formed tomorrow morning across Missouri and how it evolves thorugh the day. Stay tuned!

On Tuesday, we still may see some scattered showers/storms across the area due to moisture on the backside of a deep trough. Beyond that, A large blocking ridge will be over the region, keeping dry conditions with a warming trend for the rest of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A few showers and storms may impact CHA and TYS this afternoon and evening but not confident enough to include TEMPO so going with PROB30. Otherwise, mostly VFR overnight but MVFR is certainly possible across portions of the area. It really depends on how much convection we get this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 85 64 81 / 40 50 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 82 60 80 / 60 60 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 83 59 80 / 60 60 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 81 56 78 / 60 40 10 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.