textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

- As colder air arrives later in the day, rain will change to snow and continue off and on in the higher elevations through Friday evening.

- Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected at or above 3,000 feet in the Tennessee mountains with locally higher amounts along the highest peaks. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- Dry and cool conditions are expected this weekend with lows deep into the 20s Sunday morning. Then, a gradual warming trend is expected into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Currently, broad upper troughing is deepening across the eastern U.S. with a surface low near 1,000 mb progressing east from the Ohio River Valley. Its associated cold front is moving in from the west, having produced earlier showers and storms. This will lead to a shift towards northwesterly flow through the day and the beginning of CAA after the front is east of the region. With notably less overall moisture, the focus for showers will be along the higher terrain due to orographic lifting. Generally 20 to 25 kts of northwesterly 850mb flow is anticipated with temperatures near and below this level remaining above freezing for the day, keeping all rain. Shortly after sunset, however, 850mb temperatures will fall below freezing with another reinforcing shortwave arriving from the north. During this time, plumes of moisture will approach from the same are after fetch from Lake Michigan. This will lead to increasing PoPs into Friday morning, mainly along the higher terrain. Additional plumes of moisture rotate through by later on Friday into Friday night with better potential for light rain or snow in northern Valley locations. Based on the latest guidance, temperatures at and below 925mb stay above freezing until late into Friday evening, but evaporative cooling could lead to more changeover. By this time, moisture quickly becomes more limited above 850mb, especially into Saturday morning.

Based on the overall setup and indications from high-res model guidance, higher elevation places in East Tennessee and southwest Virginia are very likely to see accumulating snow. Anywhere from 1 to 4 inches seems reasonable at or above 3,000 feet in elevation with locally higher amounts across the highest peaks. Some other locations around or above 2,000 feet could see accumulations as well but probably more confined to grassy surfaces. For places lower than 2,000 feet, flurries and light snow showers are certainly possible by Friday evening into Friday night. Beyond the snowfall, strong CAA and persistent northwesterly flow will make for notably cold wind chills across the higher elevations into the teens by Friday night into Saturday. High pressure then builds in to the region on Saturday, leading to increasing subsidence and significantly colder low temperatures into Sunday morning. Most places are likely to drop well into the 20s.

High pressure remains in place on Sunday with troughing having pushed off to the east. This will promote recovery of high temperatures into the 50s for most locations. Heading into the next week, high pressure will remain nearly stationary with gradual height rises continuing the dry and warming trend with most places back into the 60s by mid-week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

LLWS is present across the region according to radar products but should decrease or end with frontal passage. Showers will end over the next few hours. A cold front will move through the region late tonight. Some clearing of clouds behind the showers is expected but MVFR CIGs will be possible in the early morning hours until around noon, all day at TRI. TRI also may see light rain during the day but chances are low. Westerly winds will be gusty today around 18 to 20 knots at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 37 52 32 / 0 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 38 48 32 / 20 20 30 10 Oak Ridge, TN 56 37 48 32 / 20 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 36 46 29 / 50 40 50 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.