textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 121 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be around each day through next Saturday, with the afternoons generally the period of most activity.

- There will be potential for a few storms to become strong to severe each afternoon with damaging winds and localized flooding the main threats.

- Temperatures will be generally not be far either side of normal for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The pattern for the week ahead can be summarized as being situated between ridging aloft to the south and west, and troughing across the north with continuous shortwaves rolling in from the NW. This places us within a general NW flow pattern. No real airmass change or noticeable frontal passage in sight, as the area is forecast to record similar temperatures each day this week. Humidity will remain elevated and mostly unchanged, with 70s dew points (in the valley) expected. However, ridging is forecast to shift over us next weekend, providing the possibility of hotter temperatures and drier weather.

Later today has trended drier with recent/newer runs of the CAMs. Activity remains well north of the area, and then across the southeast, where an isolated shower/storm could develop this afternoon mainly south of I-40.

Possibly during the afternoon hours Tuesday, will need monitoring, as a pronounced shortwave will cross the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. An MCS or remnants of one, will approach the area from the north around mid-day Tuesday. 00z runs of CAMs mostly show different solutions and general uncertainty. Day 3 SPC issued yesterday afternoon does bring a slight risk of severe weather for northern portions of the CWA.

Given the general pattern we'll be in for the coming week, paired with shortwave impulse approaches under unstable conditions, showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast each day in some capacity. This time of year does favor increased chances of MCS occurrence, but the further out in time, the greater the uncertainty as far as timing, extent, and severity. The best chance of storm activity will be during the PM hours, with gusty winds and flash flooding the main threats.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Conditions are similar to this time last night, so expect fog and low clouds to develop in the Tennessee valley through daybreak or so. It's already occurring at KTRI. Currently have 2SM in there for KTRI but would not be surprised to see LIFR conditions develop. Will monitor for now. Confidence is not high enough to include at TYS and CHA however. Otherwise, models are less keen on afternoon SHRA/TSRA development today, with most guidance favoring KCHA and to a lesser extent KTRI. Not sold that there's no development INVOF KTYS however so I included a VCSH mention there.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 74 93 74 / 30 10 40 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 74 92 74 / 20 10 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 91 72 92 72 / 10 10 40 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 70 88 69 / 10 20 50 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.