textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 711 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms will continue each day through the forecast period, primarily favoring the afternoon and evening hours. A low chance for localized flooding exists each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Daily drumbeat of doldrums with diurnal doses of dour showers and storms. Outside of any thunderstorm driven winds, winds to remain stagnant under the generally weak synoptic forcing with the dissipation of the midlevel low. We keep our moist airmass, with PWATs around 1.7 - 1.8", enough to help spark at least orographically originating storms each day, any valley convection will probably follow after the initial terrain upstarts.

Interestingly Euro depicts a drier airmass working its way in for Sunday into Monday, especially Knoxville and north. This airmass originates from western Canada, and the GFS matches the progression until the airmass reaches the Midwest, at which point the two models diverge their solutions. NBM has a local minimum in rain chances on those two days, likely tied to the drier solutions in the overall ensemble. If rain ends up not occurring at the start of the week next week, we probably gain a couple degrees in temperature in response.

Regardless, we still have a number of days with scattered daily storm chances. No significant severe weather on the horizon at least, and no significant heat, but still we carry the typical summer heat and typical thunderstorm threats from lightning to gusty winds to heavy rainfall. Urban and low lying flooding remains a possibility on most days over the next week thanks to the combination of moisture and week steering flow, but should remain isolated given the scattered nature of the storms each day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Patchy fog across the region is affecting TRI this morning. VFR conditions will return within the next hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected outside of heavy rain. Showers and storms will be scattered this afternoon and early evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 91 73 / 70 10 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 71 89 72 / 60 10 50 10 Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 89 71 / 60 10 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 67 86 68 / 50 20 60 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.