textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 225 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Mostly dry weather continues on Thursday, then chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast over the weekend.

- Hot temperatures are likely next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The formation of fog tonight will depend on whether high/mid level clouds currently near the MS Valley will hold together enough to reach our area. Models are hinting at river valley fog, but if the clouds stay broken, the chance of fog will be low. Will have some patchy fog in the Wx grids along the major rivers late tonight. Thursday will be a partly to mostly sunny day under some high/mid clouds associated with a shortwave trough that passes to our south. The CAMS are showing a litte convection developing in the mountains and SW NC, although the NBM remains dry. A slight chance of showers will be added to the forecast.

For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft with multiple shortwaves bringing chances of showers and storms, although the details and timing of these short wave features remains uncertain. The Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have the highest chances for showers and storms. The severe storm chances appear low at this time, as ensemble data shows low probabilities of combined shear/CAPE. Friday appears to have better instability and synoptic forcing with a passing trough, while Saturday appears to have better shear but in a capped environment with weak forcing. It does seem likely that northern sections will have higher rain chances and better potential for strong/severe storms than southern sections both days.

A ridge will begin to build over the MS Valley region on Sunday, amplifying across the eastern Conus through Monday. This will be the dominant weather feature through much of next week, and will bring temperatures well above normal to our area. Highs in the mid/upper 90s will be common next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

There is a chance of fog at TRI late tonight. Confidence in this is low however, as mid/high clouds are expected to increase overnight. Fog is possible if the mid/high level clouds from the NW tonight dissipate instead. Otherwise, winds are expected to be calm and visibility will be VFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 89 70 90 / 0 10 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 88 68 90 / 0 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 88 67 90 / 0 10 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 86 64 90 / 0 10 0 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.