textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 124 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Periods of showers/storms continue through Saturday morning, some of which may produce heavy rainfall and flooding.

- A drier weather pattern develops next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper low spinning over Middle/West TN, with a negatively-tilted trough extending SE across AL/GA. This is producing upper divergence over East TN, which will maintain convective activity through the night in a moist air mass of PW values near 2 inches. The HRRR shows showers and storms increasing in coverage and intensity later tonight, around 09Z in the northern and central TN Valley, between TYS and TRI. Rain rates of 1-3 inches per hour will be possible where storms move slowly or train over the same locations. Flash flooding will continue to be a concern, especially for areas that had heavy rain this afternoon, such as Blount/Sevier counties and Morgan/Scott/Campbell counties. The Flood Watch will continue.

Through Saturday morning, precip will shift southward as the large closed low over New England moves south and establishes a NW flow across the region. This will bring drier air into the area that will keep dry conditions into Sunday. Chance PoPs return late Sunday with a weak shortwave trough in the NW flow. Another disturbance in the NW flow and a southward-moving cold front brings better rain chances on Monday.

Drier air and high pressure will move in behind the front, setting up a drier period for Tuesday through at least Thursday, along with temperatures near seasonal normals. Rain chances may tick back up by Friday as moisture begins to increase again.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Guidance continues to indicate a possibility of SHRA and embedded TSRA at various times through the forecast period. Have PROB30 groups in for the most probable times for convection affecting terminals however. In between periods of convection, MVFR CIGS will be possible. By midday or early afternoon, northerly flow will begin to move in, with drier air and decreasing rain chances following by the evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 66 80 64 / 70 10 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 61 82 63 / 80 10 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 81 60 81 63 / 70 0 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 82 60 / 40 0 10 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan- North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe- Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.