textproduct: Morristown

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

The drum beat of daily rain chances in the war against drought continues. CAMs have another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the mid afternoon and evening hours again today. Despite the moist airmass and another day of scattered storms, I'm not sold on the need for another day of a large scale flood watch here. Heavy rainfall amounts the past 24 hours were once more isolated in nature, and while flash flooding is again possible, the continued isolated nature of the bouts of heavy rain makes a massive watch seem too broad an instrument. There's also no guarantee that those who saw rain yesterday see rain again today or tomorrow. Mean wind vectors in the atmosphere should allow for storms to keep steady motions, and not sit and dump on any one town for too long. There's some weak low level shear present today, with the HRRR painting light helicity tracks across the region. Better shear is present in Kentucky, and while we may see transient rotation in more mature cells later, not expecting a severe threat today.

After today, we have a few more days of high moisture just pooling over the Mid South region, with generally light forcing dynamics continuing. The front looks to move slightly further north into Kentucky but generally remain stationary. By Friday the front moves to our south, though some models (such as the Euro) keep things stationary and close enough on our southern side through the weekend to warrant low PoPs. Should the front make it a little further south, as the GFS depicts, then the weekend may be drier for all.

From the weekend onwards into early June the longer range ensembles bring about a drying out period, with the EPS mean PWAT dropping to 1" or less next week. This should give everyone an opportunity to deal with outdoor chores, and a time for locations to dry out once more.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 713 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions are present across the region with the exception of MVFR CIGs at CHA this morning. Low CIGs at CHA will lift by mid to late morning. Shower activity will increase late this morning, becoming widespread in the afternoon and evening hours. Confidence in thunderstorm development is higher today for the afternoon/early evening hours. Showers and storms are expected to taper off after sunset this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 67 82 66 / 70 50 60 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 66 82 65 / 80 50 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 80 65 81 64 / 80 50 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 63 80 62 / 70 50 70 90

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.