textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 709 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight and into the morning hours. The potential for severe storms is very low overnight.

- Wednesday afternoon and early evening scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected. A few may be strong to severe with gusty winds and hail mainly in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

- Rain chances are on a downward trend for the system Friday night into Saturday as the low shifts farther south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Strong storms over Middle Tennessee this evening dissipated before reaching East Tennessee. Currently, low pressure at the surface is centered near Northeast Arkansas with a frontal boundary extending north and east along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Strong to severe storms are over Northern Mississippi. The cold front well to the west in western Arkansas. In the upper levels, a ridge remains over the East Coast tonight. A weak shortwave is moving through the Southeast tonight. CAPE is very low in Middle and East Tennessee. HREF guidance has CAPE staying below 100 J/kg overnight. Potential for severe storms will be very low overnight. Showers and storms or a batch of rain with embedded thunder will move through the region overnight and lingering into the morning hours.

By early afternoon on Wednesday, nearly zonal flow will be over the region in the upper levels and the surface low will be near OH/PA. A cold front will move through the region in the late afternoon or early evening hours bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms especially in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia. A few strong to severe storms are possible ahead of that front mainly in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia but overall the threat is low. Damaging winds and hail around one inch (quarter) size will be possible with good dynamics in place, synoptic forcing, CAPE 500-1000 J/kg and Effective shear around 40 knots. The window for strong storms will be brief from about 3 PM EDT to 7 PM EDT.

By late Wednesday evening or night, rain will clear out as the front moves through with a cooler, drier air mass expected by Thursday.

Friday night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through the Southeast. Rain chances are on a downward trend with the low now projected to track farther south closer to the Gulf. Sunday looks dry. Early next week looks mostly dry with low rain chances and high pressure over the Southeast. Temperatures will be cooler with highs mainly in the 60s starting Thursday through the weekend. The coolest day will be Saturday with highs in the 60s for all of the Tennessee Valley.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 709 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

CHA has remained mainly VFR this morning with primarily MVFR at TYS and TRI. This is expected to continue for much of the morning, followed by improvements back to VFR by early afternoon. Showers and storms are expected to develop later in the afternoon into the evening, but the best chance for impact will be at TRI where a PROB30 and VCTS were included. Winds will be breezy from the west becoming more northwesterly through the evening as rain exits the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 53 72 52 / 70 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 50 68 47 / 70 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 77 49 69 47 / 70 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 47 65 41 / 90 20 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.