textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 657 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and storms expected today, and a few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern U.S. At the surface, current analysis has a decaying stationary front near the Georgia/Tennessee border. Some storms are currently moving through southern Middle Tennessee. This activity will continue to weaken as it moves into the Cumberland Plateau. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will start to increase early this morning with better confidence in development in the late morning and early afternoon hours. A weak shortwave will move through the pattern in the early afternoon hours. At the surface, a low centered near OH/PA will bring a cold front to our doorstep in the afternoon hours and it will move through in the evening hours.

Showers and storms possibly getting off to an early start today, complicates the forecast and decreases confidence in intensity and timing. CAMs have not been doing well with the messy pattern and the way summertime activity kicks out outflows that can trigger more storms. Surface based instability will likely still be high for most of the region this afternoon. Dew points will be in the low 70s, CAPE up to 2k J/kg likely and steep low level lapse rates. With a high sun angle this time of year, instability may be able to rebound after skies clear behind early daytime activity. Most of the region is in a marginal risk for severe storms which seems appropriate. The East Tennessee and North Carolina mountains are on the edge of the slight risk. The primary threat will be damaging winds. The freezing level will be high around 15k feet making large hail difficult to achieve.

The broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by Monday. Rain chances will be very low Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. A stationary boundary will likely linger well to the south early this week. With a deep trough in place, temperatures will be cooler with highs mainly in the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances increase on Thursday and Friday as a shortwave moves through Thursday and finally a cold front passage on Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 657 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A few small isolated showers capable of thunder have formed and are moving to the NE this morning. Maintained VCSH for TYS and CHA given their low to zero lightning activity thus far. There may be a break mid morning to early afternoon in activity before scattered RA and TS cells re-fire across the area and move from west to east. MVFR restrictions during any impacting cell, but hard to say with confidence if any of the terminals will be directly impacted. Gusty SW winds during the early afternoon, gusts may reach up to 20 knots at KTYS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 66 82 63 / 90 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 63 80 60 / 100 80 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 62 80 58 / 90 50 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 60 78 55 / 70 80 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.