textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Wind advisory to expire this morning, however winds will remain breezy, especially in southwestern VA. Only meager rain amounts with front.

- Mild temperatures later today into Monday. Warmer conditions to return Tuesday through Friday.

- Afternoon relative humidity will be low on today, extremely low on Monday. Fire danger will be high in southwestern Virginia today owing to the combination between winds and minimum afternoon relative humidities.

- Two potential rounds of rain later into next week with the greatest chance of significant rainfall for Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Minor wind event going on in the mountains currently. Wind advisory will be allowed to expire at 7 AM EST, which lines up well with HREF mean wind gusts. Cove Mountain in the Smokies has observed gusts into the mid-40s mph thus far. HRRR and other CAM guidance bring the band of rain showers associated with the cold front currently in eastern Kentucky through our area early this morning, but only meager rainfall will result. Behind the front, a very dry airmass will move in behind, with PW values slipping to 0.25" by Monday morning resulting in low RH values this afternoon and very low RH values Monday afternoon. Breezy winds will linger into today but will be light on Monday. Virginia will experience a period today afternoon and early evening where the meteorological conditions will be favorable to high fire danger between the still breezy conditions and minimum RH values, though we will remain short of red flag conditions.

Significant anomalous warmth will return for Tuesday through Friday. Ridge heights will be building and by the middle of the week will be over 582dm, above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Glancing blow from a weak shortwave on Tuesday will bring light rain across our northern counties. Warm front passing early on Tuesday may produce light rain, though it will be working against the lingering dry air near the surface. After the shortwave's passage, we will remain firmly underneath the ridge's influence. Wednesday and Thursday carry a 20 to 30% chance of daily high temperature records at Chattanooga. Knoxville and Tri-Cities records are significantly higher and thus unlikely to be met.

Past Thursday, still expecting a low pressure system to eject from the Rockies but recent guidance depicts a weaker system, perhaps a filling low, moving up into the Midwest. This may reduce rainfall significantly (as shown in recent GFS runs) and even the EC-AI has backed a bit off on rain amounts. It still is the best chance to see decent rainfall across the whole of the area though and we remain six days out.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Scattered showers will move through especially north early in the period. Conditions will likely drop to MVFR for a few hours at TRI so will include MVFR as prevailing there, and at TYS will include MVFR conditions in a tempo shower group. Winds have been significant enough from the southwest to lessen the LLWS threat and winds at 2kft will be slowly diminishing, so will not include LLWS in this issuance. The sky will be clearing in the morning hours and winds will be gusty from the west and northwest during the day before diminishing tonight. Other than the brief MVFR conditions early mainly TRI and TYS, VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 39 65 41 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 35 60 39 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 30 55 34 / 10 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Northwest Carter- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene- Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.