textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 744 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Very heavy rainfall rates and an increased risk for flash flooding is expected this afternoon into early evening, especially over our TN and SW NC counties.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue each day through next Monday, and some storms may contain very heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The threat of flash flooding will continue this afternoon into early evening and the flash flood watch will be left as is for now. While the threat of flooding still looks isolated this afternoon into early evening, there continues to be potential for extremely high rainfall rates given the near record PWAT values combined with the tall skinny CAPE profiles, high freezing levels, and slow storm movement. CAMS continue to show the potential for localized high rainfall totals, and although exact locations for any very heavy rainfall is still unclear there appears to be an enhanced threat from portions of the Plateau across our central CWA and adjacent southern counties near and south of a poorly defined, nearly stationary, summertime boundary. This boundary currently looks to be draped somewhere across NE TN not far from Morristown.

PWAT values will still be quite high despite a small tick down on Tuesday, and the atmosphere overall is still similar to today with very heavy rain rates favored. There will be a slight increase in flow that should result in slightly faster storm motion. However, despite the expected uptick in storm motion, given the very moist environment and another heavy rain favorable CAPE profile along with a deep warm cloud layer, very heavy rainfall rates and localized flooding will be possible again Tuesday. Right now no additional flash flood watch will be issued for tomorrow, but trends will be monitored.

The warm and sticky conditions are then expected to continue for the remainder of the week and possibly through the weekend into the beginning of next week, with chances for showers and storms each day some of which will contain torrential downpours. The weak upper trough that is moving across the region today and Tuesday will move off to our east and northeast by midweek and be replaced by a resurgence of the upper ridge. This may allow for a bit of a lull in the convection mid week, but at least isolated to scattered coverage is still expected Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday through the weekend into next Monday models have been suggesting a front may be approaching although the details about timing and how much progress it makes are still very uncertain. However, there may be more upper support from the jet to our north or shortwaves in the flow aloft as the ridge breaks down and the front approaches, which would bring another uptick in convection but also introduces the possibility of some drying if the front actually makes it to our south and east.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 744 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Showers still lingering, but lightning activity is remaining well south of CHA at this time. Rain chances to decrease overnight. Confidence on lower side for CIG height outside precipitation. Low end VFR to MVFR will be the range. The later morning and afternoon into the evening tomorrow, will pose more chances for SHRA and TSRA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 86 70 89 / 50 70 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 85 70 88 / 70 80 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 68 84 69 87 / 60 90 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 67 85 / 30 80 50 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for Anderson- Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne- Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton- Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn- Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.