textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected this week. Temperatures Warming climbing to around 20 degrees above normal.

- Best chance of rainfall will be late Thursday through Saturday morning. Much needed rainfall is possible.

- Strong and gusty mountain wave winds are possible late Thursday through Friday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Key upper level feature for much of the week will be an upper ridge across the United States especially the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee valley. Unseasonably strong strong upper ridge/heights will pull anomaly warm temperatures in the region with highs in the 60s for much of the area. Temperatures will be around 20 degrees above normal.

A strong upper trough will move into the mid-section of the nation by late week pulling Gulf moisture northward into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Much needed rainfall is possible for late Thursday through early Saturday.

Now for the details...

For tonight, a weak shear axis is fast westerly flow aloft will increase high and mid-level clouds early this evening before departing early Monday morning.

For Monday, surface ridging east of the Appalachians will return southerly flow into the Tennessee valley pulling unseasonably warm temperatures in the area under mostly clear sky.

For Tuesday and early Tuesday night, a fast moving northern stream short-wave will move across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio valley. Return of southerly winds aloft will allow for some moisture return into the Tennessee valley. However, moisture will be shallow with Gulf essentially closed off. Increasing cloud cover with sprinkles or scattered light showers possible but LREF shows low probability of measurable rainfall.

For Wednesday, cloud cover moves east with partly cloudy sky and unseasonably warm temperatures.

For Thursday, main feature will be a southern stream short-wave and jet dynamics lifting northeast into the tennessee and Ohio valleys. Good pressure falls will increase the southerly flow from the Gulf into the region with increasing clouds and isentropic lift. Shower chances increase Thursday as well as chance of thunder over southeast Tennessee due to elevated instability.

For Friday through Saturday morning, the upper level trough moves across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. LREF and deterministic models show a strong 850mb jet of 50-60 knots. Strong jet dynamic forcing and isentropic lift will produce likely chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms southeast Tennessee and Plateau. Much needed rainfall is possible especially for the D2 drought areas of southeast Tennessee.

Another aspect will be the potential mountain wave high wind event. High wind watch may be necessary for the far east Tennessee mountains and foothills.

Colder and more seasonal temperatures are expected for Sunday with drier conditions.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM EST Sun Jan 4 2026

Expecting VFR conditions through the period at all sites along with light winds. However, some guidance is suggesting MVFR/IFR late tonight. Do not feel confident enough to include in TAFs based on the drier air that moved in earlier today. Just be aware a low end probability does exists for poor flight conditions late in the night and closer to sunrise.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 64 47 65 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 63 44 65 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 34 61 45 63 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 58 38 62 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.