textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Widespread rain expected through this evening. High confidence in widespread +0.50" totals, 1 inch most likely in northern TN counties.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the East Tennessee mountains and foothills for early this morning through early afternoon for strong gusty winds.

- Dry and significantly warmer next week. Next rain chances appear Thursday and onwards.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Light rain falling aloft has been steadily eroding the surface dry air the last several hours and is now beginning to reach the surface over much of the region. Rain will continue to overspread early this morning, with steady rain expected for most for much of today. Half inch of rain is expected for nearly everyone, with an inch of rainfall most likely along and north of the I-40 corridor. This won't entirely erase our rain deficits, but should provide a break from the worsening drought. Near zero CAPE present, so not expecting any lightning today.

A very marginal mountain wind event will be taking place this morning through the early afternoon. HREF mean gusts are in the 40 to 50 mph range, courtesy of 35 to 40 knots of low crossing the mountains. No changes to the advisory. Think the southern Smokies have the best chances to see the strongest gusts.

Once the upper low quickly exits to the coast, upper ridge heights will begin building in once more, with the H85 ridge anchored over the southeastern coast, and anomalous February warmth will follow for midweek. Over the western US a strong subtropical jet will bury itself into the Southern Rockies this week. Disturbances in the broader flow over the northwestern US will eventually bring the next one or two systems to our area with rain during the latter portions of the work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

As rain continues to spread into the area, aviation conditions will deteriorate from south to north. CHA is the most likely to see IFR prevailing through the day with all sites having TEMPO groups for at least some periods of IFR. Winds have also increased a few thousand feet AGL, leading to potentially marginal LLWS through the morning. Rain will gradually diminish by the evening hours, but some lingering fog can be expected overnight. MVFR is forecast to be the prevailing category at all of the sites overnight, but IFR still remains possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 45 67 44 / 100 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 42 63 41 / 100 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 41 63 41 / 100 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 38 61 35 / 100 30 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.