textproduct: Morristown
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KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 730 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
- Dry weather to continue the rest of the week.
- Temperatures to remain above normal with a gradual warming trend each day.
- Tropical development is expected over the Gulf, which may impact the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
A 1024 mb high is currently centered over Michigan with troughing well to the north and weak northwesterly flow moving in from the upper ridge out west. The aforementioned surface high will move to off of the Mid-Atlantic coast early tomorrow. New surface high pressure will shift down from the Upper Plains the latter part of the week, keeping precipitation at bay for now.
Temperatures will remain above normal with a gradual warming trend each day. When we round out the work week mid to upper 80s are forecast from the central to southern valley. The coolest morning of the week will be this morning where the upper half of our forecast area will see lows in the 40s; 50s for lows for the remainder. Though the air is on the drier side, fog near bodies of water is still possible.
Our next chance of precipitation will arrive sometime this weekend. There are uncertainties as to what and when. As of last night, a tropical disturbance with a 80 percent chance of development determined by the NHC, will drift towards the central northern Gulf. Deterministic models have great differences in what they think will occur. If one thing's certain is that our area will see rain lifting up from the south Saturday and possibly into Monday. Some gusty winds, most likely from a strong pressure gradient, could be possible and of course will be monitoring.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
A low cloud deck has developed in portions of the southern Tennessee valley this morning, slightly intruding the central valley and TYS. Have included a TEMPO group at CHA for MVFR conditions for this and also introduced low VFR cigs at TYS for the next several hours. Winds will be light through the period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 56 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 80 54 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 49 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
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