textproduct: Morristown
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KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 738 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026
- Morning fog possible for Mother's Day. Very low chance of a shower tomorrow evening, meager rainfall tomorrow night into Monday morning.
- Possible patchy frost for parts of the higher terrain and southwest Virginia Tuesday morning.
- Another potential frontal passage brings medium chances for additional meager rainfall on Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026
Both HRRR and the NAM have some steep inversions near or at the surface tomorrow morning, so tacked in some mentions of patchy fog for the early morning hours.
Well, the trend is not our friend to bust the drought. Vertical profiles for tomorrow have gotten more inhospitable to hydrometeor production, with hardly any CAPE around on guidance, and mostly sunny skies helping to mix the afternoon RHs fairly low. It'll be a slightly above normal day temperature wise, but should be great weather for anyone with surprise plans. When the front and upper jet get here late Sunday night, we'll get enough divergence to power light rain showers for much of the area, but the lack of quality moisture advection means resulting QPF is extremely low.
Arguably the biggest obvious impact (other than the potential for fog in the morning) is the potential for more patchy frost Tuesday morning as temperatures again drop into the 30s across portions of northern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia, along with the mountains of East Tennessee. Beyond Tuesday we'll enter another rebound to warmer weather. A weak upper disturbance attempts to give rainfall on Wednesday, but much like Monday morning ensemble QPF with this system is also really poor, if any.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026
Primarily VFR for the TAF period with the exception of the possibility of fog at all terminals early tomorrow morning. Dense fog the most likely at TRI. Low confidence on if and how dense fog could get at TYS and CHA. Cold front will move through later tomorrow with increasing cloud cover as well as precip, but not until within the next TAF period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 85 60 76 / 0 10 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 82 58 72 / 0 0 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 52 83 56 72 / 0 0 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 79 53 68 / 0 0 60 50
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
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