textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 718 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- The dry weather will persist through Saturday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day Sunday through the coming work week especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft over the southeastern CONUS will continue to provide us with dry and seasonably warm conditions through Saturday. A system moving through the Northeast will bring a cold front into the Ohio Valley but this front will stall to our north. A weak upper level low over the Plains will be slow to move this weekend as a blocking ridge extends from the Southeast U.S. to Ontario Canada, but eventually the remnants of this upper low will make it into the Ohio Valley by the Tues/Wed time frame. The associated weakness in the ridge over our area will then move off to our east as the upper ridging re-asserts itself over the region for the end of the work week.

Moisture will be increasing by Sunday, and chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to our area as weak short wave energy moves across the region. Models generally show limited instability at best (outside of the NAM which right now is an outlier), but PWAT values are forecast to be above 1.8 inches at least in the south and any CAPE will likely be of the tall skinny variety resulting in the possibility of heavy rainfall rates with any storms that develop.

No strong synoptic forcing is currently in the forecast for the coming work week. However, given the increased moisture and instability we will see chances for showers and storms each day especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Right now, shear generally looks weak and chances for severe storms look very low overall. However, model PWAT values will be around 1.7 to 1.8 inches or more at times, and there will be the possibility of very heavy rainfall that could cause localized flooding in any areas that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 718 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR and dry conditions expected to continue. Already light winds should drop to near calm tonight before picking back up midday tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 88 68 86 / 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 88 67 87 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 86 65 85 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.