textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- A front arrives on Friday, and should spark off plenty of showers and thunderstorms. A few of these could produce some damaging winds, mainly north of the I-40 corridor.

- Persistent hot and muggy conditions continue through Friday before that cold front moves through and gives a break in the humidity for part of the weekend.

- The first half of next week looks unsettled, with multiple rounds of heavy rains possible. Details are uncertain as to whether there's a risk of flooding at this point.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

In general, there are two primary concerns for the next 7 days. The first is the potential for some severe storms capable of damaging winds on Friday. And the second is going to be the first half of next week when a wet pattern sets up across the southeast United States and brings with it several periods of heavy rain.

For the rest of today and tomorrow, upper ridging will largely suppress convection. Terrain induced convection, as is occurring in the southern plateau, the Smokies, and parts of our Virginia counties, will likely occur again tomorrow afternoon. But otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions. Like today, tomorrow will be another hot and muggy day. Undercut NBM dewpoints a bit today and tomorrow to lower afternoon heat indexes, but these were minor changes...limiting dewpoints to 72-73 degrees verses the roughly 75 degree max dewpoints in the NBM. Resulting heat indexes remain in the mid 90s which is reasonable.

Thursday night into Friday a potent shortwave will lift northeast from the central plains into the western Great Lakes region. This will push a front our direction on Friday. Models show convection firing up during peak heating in the vicinity of the plateau and southeast Kentucky before shifting east and expanding in coverage through the afternoon and evening hours. While better shear will exist further to our north, closer to the parent shortwave, the instability present should make up for the lacking shear in terms of severe chances. Forecast MLCAPE values in excess of 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg are not uncommon on Friday, both spatially across our forecast area and in terms of being present in multiple guidance sources. Overall, it looks favorable to see some strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds. Doesn't look like a widespread severe weather event, but I would not be surprised at all for there to be a few warnings issued.

Behind the front we'll get a brief reprieve in the humidity as dry air filters in from the north Saturday and Sunday. Then attention turns to next week which could prove quite wet. Behind the Friday shortwave upper flow becomes zonal across much of the CONUS through the weekend, with broad high pressure across the Gulf states. Early next week however, the upper ridge shifts back off the east coast of Florida while upper troughing sets up over the western CONUS while a front approaches from the Midwest and stalls out somewhere near the Appalachians and TN Valley. This will produce persistent southwest flow overhead for much of the first half of the week, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. It's too early to get concerned about this just yet, but we'll need to monitor this closely in the coming days as this type of pattern could produce some flooding issues. As always though, details aren't certain just yet and those details will matter a great deal so just keep an eye on the forecast for the time being.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR flight categories should prevail through the period. ISOLD SHRA and possibly even a TSRA or two, will be present mainly in the higher terrain both this afternoon and tomorrow as well, but they shouldn't affect any terminals. There's a hint of MVFR CIGS in some of the guidance again tonight, but I'm not confident enough to include them right now. Did put a SCT015 in at KTRI to hedge that direction though.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 92 72 91 / 0 10 0 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 92 73 91 / 0 10 0 90 Oak Ridge, TN 70 91 71 90 / 0 10 10 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 90 69 90 / 20 20 20 90

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.