textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing moisture and instability this weekend with likely chances of showers and possibly storms, especially Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with potential for some strong to severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

An mid/upper level short-wave will move across the upper Ohio valley into the central Appalachians later tonight into Wednesday. This wave will produce an area of convection that may approach southwest Virginia Wednesday. However, at this time, the dynamics and moisture look likely to stay to our north with surface ridging holding over our area, so dry conditions are anticipated to persist. Fire weather concerns will continue to be elevated with low afternoon relative humidity values in the 20s common across the area, and afternoon winds will generally be in the 5 to 15 mph range with the higher values across the north along with some higher gusts.

For Thursday and Friday, an upper ridge will build over the area producing mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions. High temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal both days. Low afternoon relative humidity values will continue with values mainly in the 20s and 30s.

For Friday night through Saturday, a northern stream short wave over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region and a southern stream wave moving across the Gulf coast states will flatten out the upper ridge, but models generally indicate limited phasing with these waves and instability and dynamics look limited for our area. Some showers and possibly thunderstorms can be expected Friday night into Saturday, but confidence is low on QPF amounts. Current QPF shows around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rainfall, but ensemble data suggests it may be less.

Another wave will move into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians early next week, bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms sometime in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Models indicate the dynamics are likely to be stronger with this system, and it may tap into Gulf moisture as well. Ensemble joint probabilities of CAPE and Shear currently suggest a greater threat of strong to severe storms with this system. Models still do not agree on details such as timing, but this will bear watching as we get closer and the details become clearer.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 147 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The area will be situated under high pressure to the SE and a disturbance moving overhead to our north. A pressure gradient will create westerly winds and gusts, primarily the strongest at TRI later this afternoon. Prior to, a LLJ may create LLWS conditions at TRI the next few hours. Otherwise, dry weather, VFR, and either SKC or high clouds expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 53 83 56 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 82 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 46 80 52 / 0 0 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.