textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Accumulating snow is likely Friday afternoon through Saturday across much of the area with the greatest chance for more significant accumulations in the eastern half of the area.

- Extreme cold will return Friday night and continue through the weekend with wind chills near or below 0 Saturday night into Sunday morning and single digit or less for lows Sunday night.

- A slow warming trend will follow next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

A winter storm watch was issued for the East TN mountains, most of southwest Virginia, and portions of the East Tennessee valley, including the Tri-Cities metro and Knoxville. Snow is expected mainly between Friday afternoon through Saturday. Confidence in where exactly the western extent of heavy snow will be is relatively low, but cold temperatures will allow for quick impacts as the event unfolds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Currently, mid/upper troughing is centered to our northeast with high pressure generally in place across the eastern U.S. A weak shortwave and surface low are ejecting into the Great Plains. This will keep the region in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft with below normal temperatures and dry conditions through the day. Later today and into the overnight period, the weak low will track towards the Gulf with another more pronounced shortwave diving into the Great Lakes region. An Arctic high will also track towards the northern U.S. With this will come another surge of extremely cold air, as cold or colder than what has been seen.

During the day on Friday, increasing moisture and height falls will bring an area of light snow into the region from the northwest. Also, focus will turn towards the system along the Gulf, which will move into the Atlantic and rapidly strengthen into the weekend. This will intensify coverage and intensity of snowfall later on Friday into Saturday. With very cold thermal profiles, snow ratios will be much higher than a lot of events we see, likely 15:1 or greater. Confidence in higher snow totals remains in eastern portions of the region in closer proximity to the Atlantic system as it strengthens. Based on the latest model guidance, the Knoxville area and Interstate 75 northward seem to delineate confidence in more significant snowfall totals with increasing likelihood of at least 3 inches. For the mountains, far East Tennessee, and southwest Virginia, probabilities for 4 to 6 inches range anywhere from 20 to 40 percent as snow will linger more into Saturday evening. With temperatures far below freezing area-wide, snow will accumulate on any and every surface as it won't be the west snow often seen.

Aside from the snowfall, the extreme nature of cold temperatures will be another concern during this time. By Saturday night, high pressure will remain to our west, keeping a strong MSLP gradient and breezy winds with 850mb to -18 Celsius, near record low for this time of year. Below 0 wind chills are likely, especially in the higher elevations. This will continue through the day on Sunday with better radiational cooling conditions Sunday night as the surface high becomes centered just to our southwest. Places that have snowpack could see temperatures drop to near or even below 0.

During the day on Monday, winds will shift to be more southerly as high pressure moves further east towards Florida. As troughing shifts off to our east, height rises will help temperatures rise back above freezing but still below normal. Further height rises are expected by Tuesday with the flow becoming more zonal. This will bring temperatures back closer to normal. Another trough will approach from the west, bringing a return in precip chances by Wednesday. By this time, however, low-level temperatures will have warmed enough for predominantly rain.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR TAFs through the period, although a few low clouds at MVFR levels will begin working their way in late tonight at KTRI. Light winds today with dry weather expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 40 25 44 19 / 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 24 40 17 / 0 0 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 36 24 39 16 / 0 0 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 21 35 15 / 10 10 60 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Grainger-Hamblen-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke- Northwest Greene-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter- Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Washington TN.

VA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.