textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 714 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will impact the region Saturday through Sunday.

- Heavy rain is possible for the Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina this weekend.

- Breezy conditions are likely Saturday into Saturday night with high winds likely over the far East Tennessee mountains and foothills and portions of southeast Tennessee.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Currently, Hurricane Isaias is located off the Yucatan Peninsula. Locally, high pressure remains in place with a subtropical jet to our south. Initially, this will keep the region dry and mild with Isaias expected to continue northeast through the day before shifting north late tonight. Throughout the day on Friday, high pressure will shift more to our northeast with height rises keeping temperatures well into the 80s. The subtropical jet will also shift north as Isaias makes landfall along the northern Gulf by Saturday morning.

There still remains uncertainty in the exact track after landfall with a progression ranging from the Mississippi River Valley to Middle Tennessee possible by Saturday night. Initially, this will lead to an increase in rain chances from the south and increasing easterly and northeasterly flow that shifts southeasterly by the evening. Regardless of the exact track, strong winds in the higher elevations remains the largest impact for our region, especially in the mountains and foothills. With the strength of the MSLP gradient and low-level flow, advisory-level winds are also increasingly likely across portions of the Cumberland Plateau. However, warning- level winds are likely in the mountains and foothills as any solution has 850mb flow in excess of 60 kts to our west. The strength of downsloping will also limit overall rain totals for the eastern half of the area until flow becomes more westerly by Sunday morning. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible, mainly in southern and western portions of the area.

For the severe threat, current trends continue to suggest instability will stay largely to our south and west, especially if a more eastward track transpires after landfall. However, with the strength of 850mb winds, some damaging winds could possibly reach the surface in southern portions or the Plateau. Otherwise, most winds will be due to downsloping or the MSLP gradient. By Sunday evening into Sunday night, the remnants will continue to weaken as they progress off to our northeast. High pressure will then build in and give way to drier conditions into next week with above normal 500mb heights keeping temperatures mild.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Fog and low cloud are leading to IFR conditions at TRI this morning. Conditions should gradually improve over the next hour or two, leading to mostly sunny skies and light winds 10kts or less. HREF probabilities for fog and low cloud tonight/tomorrow morning are little to none, thus, no mentions have been included at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 57 83 60 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 83 57 82 59 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 52 80 56 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.