textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 108 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in SE TN and SW NC; some may be strong to severe.

- Very hot temperatures continue with afternoon heat index values reaching 100-105 degrees in most Valley locations; Heat Advisory remains in effect through Saturday.

- Temperatures drop closer to normal with continued rain chances next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Fairly persistent forecast from the previous days as a large and anomalous upper level ridge remains in place over the southeastern CONUS. The all but certain impact is for the high heat and humidity to continue. Heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees will be more widespread, with locally higher values possible both this afternoon and again Friday. While we will see a slight decrease in the heat Saturday, the Heat Advisory was expanded to cover the July 4th afternoon as a messaging tool with the expected increase in outdoor activity. Heat indices between 97 to 102 look to be more common for Saturday.

Aside from the heat, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible during the heat of the day through at least Saturday. 2pm to 8pm EDT will be the best chance to have potential convection briefly impact outdoor activities. Chances will trend down with the setting sun, hopefully steering free of any impacts to firework displays.

Regarding today's strong to severe threat, believe the greatest threat will be along the higher terrain and within the southern valley. Soundings depict a very unstable airmass with MLCAPEs expected to exceed 2500+ J/kg. Some dry air aloft will also contribute to very high DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. The biggest concern is the ability for convection to actually initiate. With lack of an upper level disturbance and weak CIN noted on TYS ACARS soundings, latest CAM runs have kept CI more isolated and south of I- 40. However, with plenty of energy in place if any storms do develop they will have the potential to become strong to severe. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard. Ultimately, a low chance for a strong to severe storm will be possible each day during this very hot and muggy period.

Sunday into next week temperatures will start to trend downward an upper-level shortwave moves into the Great Lakes region and helps tamp down the southeastern ridge. A weak surface boundary sagging into the southern Ohio Valley will also lead to a slight upward trend in PoP coverage.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Quiet aviation conditions are expected through the rest of the night into the first part of the day with light and variable winds and limited cloud cover. By mid to late afternoon, storms are expected to develop with better coverage than in recent days. PROB30 groups were maintained for all 3 sites, but a VCTS was added into CHA based on better potential coverage around that site. Outside of showers or storms, VFR and light winds will continue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 99 75 98 76 / 40 30 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 97 73 96 74 / 40 10 30 20 Oak Ridge, TN 98 74 97 74 / 40 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 99 70 97 70 / 30 10 20 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne- Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton- Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn- Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA- Washington VA-Wise.