textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 238 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Several rounds of rain expected through the weekend, favoring northern areas this morning, then switching to southern and eastern areas this afternoon through Sunday.

- Drier and cooler conditions will return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough extends from the Dakotas to New England. A weak ridge is over the extreme Southeast (FL/GA/SC). The latest surface analysis shows a slow moving cold front just upstream over Middle Tennessee. Scattered showers will continue overnight mainly north of I-40. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out but showers have been shallow so far. This afternoon scattered showers and isolated storms will be mainly south of I-40 and east of Knoxville, closer to the foothills and mountains as the slow moving cold front moves into East Tennessee. Rain chances are highest on Sunday as a weak shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley to the north. The frontal boundary will be nearly stationary just to our south bringing overrunning conditions. Additional rainfall this weekend will be 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts. Some locations already received 1 to 2 inches over the past several hours due to repeated showers.

The rain will end by Monday morning as a trough pushes the cold front out of the region. At the surface, high pressure settles in over the Eastern U.S. Dry weather is expected all next week with high pressure dominating the pattern. Temperatures will be near normal early in the week with a slight warming trend late in the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 146 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Unsettled conditions are expected overnight, with scattered showers having the most likely chance to impact TYS/TRI through the morning until around mid-day. Trends suggest rain chances will be more limited for these two locations for the afternoon and evening. Chances to have showers impact CHA seem best in the afternoon to early evening. HREF probabilities also highlight a 40-60% chance for MVFR cigs at all three sites mid to late morning, before lifting to low VFR for the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 69 79 63 / 60 70 90 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 67 77 62 / 60 50 90 10 Oak Ridge, TN 80 65 76 59 / 60 50 90 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 63 72 58 / 80 50 90 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.