textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 754 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Dry conditions extend through today with warming temperatures. Breezy winds also to develop throughout the day. Highest gusts possible over the higher terrain up to 40 mph overnight tonight.

- A system will impact the region early tomorrow morning through Friday. A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding are also possible.

- Drier weather returns later on Friday through Saturday before more rain chances Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Currently warmer than yesterday, but still a pleasant day out there with dew points remaining mostly in the 60's across the region. Dew point values will begin to surge overnight into the 70's as low level winds turn southerly and start to draw up moire Gulf moisture ahead of our next systems expected to impact the region Thursday/Friday.

We're watching a couple of things for Thursday, a low across the Great Lakes region that will bring a front towards the region, and Tropical Storm Arthur. The primary system to be watching is the low to our north and the front it's expected to bring into our region late Thursday. Ahead of the incoming front the pressure gradient will really tighten up and low level winds ramp up out of the southwest across the region. Expect to see gusty winds picking up across the valley once we get closer to sunset tonight, and continuing through the overnight hours, and through the first half of Thursday. As usual the strongest gusts will be in the higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians and the ridges. We could see 20- 30 mph winds with gusts up to around 40 mph in these higher terrain areas.

The (expected to be) short lived Tropical Storm Arther remnants will move in from the southwest tomorrow across the southern Tennessee Valley and storms will move up from the south and southwest along with it. Instability will be on the rise during peak heating, but overall shear will be decreasing from the south to the north.

So the atmosphere out there tomorrow could be supportive to see strong to severe storms from either the remnants of Arthur or the front moving in from the north. Better dynamics are likely to be associated with storms to our north as the better forcing from the TS remnants will likely remain further to our south. With PWATs increasing to near 2 inches, flash flooding potential will be present across the entire area.

Showers and storms chances will linger overnight into early Friday morning. Temperatures will trend cooler Friday with warming into the weekend. Brief high pressure will dominate a part of the weekend with chances for precipitation increasing Sunday. Chances then continue to persist through Monday, possibly into Tuesday driven by another low pressure system swinging through the Great Lakes and brining another frontal boundary to the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 754 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

SWly winds and gusts will continue throughout the TAF period. Especially at TYS and then TRI later in the day tomorrow. Light SFC winds overnight at TRI and an increasing LLJ, may create LLWS conditions until winds translate to the SFC there. Moisture expected to lift north from remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur tomorrow morning. May begin as showers at first, before heating of the day supports a more TS environment. CIG at least as low as MVFR level with VSBY possibly dropping to IFR under any heavy shower or storm. SHRA and TS potential to not reach TRI until the afternoon, meanwhile will begin earlier at CHA and TYS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 84 70 86 / 20 80 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 86 69 84 / 10 60 80 50 Oak Ridge, TN 73 86 69 85 / 20 70 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 87 66 82 / 0 70 70 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.