textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Chilly morning starts followed by pleasant fall afternoon conditions are expected through Wednesday.

- High confidence in much colder temperatures for the latter part of the week. Light snow accumulations over the higher elevations are looking likely as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Pleasant fall weather will continue through Wednesday as broad surface high pressure remains over the region under WNW flow aloft. After chilly early mornings, we will see mild afternoons with high temperatures in the 60s for most valley locations each day through Wednesday. The first in a series of short waves will be approaching Wednesday so clouds may begin to increase especially in the afternoon, but right now it appears it will be too dry for significant precipitation to make it to the surface on Wednesday although a light shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled out.

Models continue to show poor consistency and agreement in the details for the latter part of the week, but there is good overall agreement and high forecast confidence that we will see a shift to more winter-like conditions. The aforementioned initial short wave will move across our area Wednesday night into Thursday as a deep upper trough develops over the eastern CONUS. A cold front will sweep across our area Wednesday night. We will see showers move into our area by Wednesday night and continue into Thursday. Convective energy still looks very limited, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

Colder air will move in behind the front, with the cold advection and northwest flow continuing into Saturday. Models continue to struggle with the evolution and timing of the upper low that cuts off and moves south and southeast Friday/Friday night before lifting off to the northeast. Placement of this low and the strength/timing of the lobes of vort energy that rotate around it will matter for our sensible weather, thus there is still uncertainty on the details. However, this set up continues to look favorable for some snow showers especially across the higher terrain at times in the Thursday night through Saturday time frame, with light snow accumulations looking likely for the higher elevations as the snow showers are enhanced by upslope flow. A flurry or light snow shower may at least briefly mix in over some valley locations especially across the northern half of the area. Temperatures will likely struggle to make it above the 40s in most valley locations both Friday and Saturday.

Sunday and Monday look to be dry as the upper low pulls away. Temperatures will still be below normal but will be gradually trending warmer.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Some patchy fog is possible in the early morning hours but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue with clear/sunny skies expected and light winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 45 70 53 / 0 0 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 43 69 51 / 0 0 0 80 Oak Ridge, TN 68 41 67 50 / 0 0 0 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 39 68 46 / 0 0 0 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.