textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 746 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the coming work week especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

- Very heavy rainfall rates and an increased risk for flash flooding is expected Monday, especially over our TN and SW NC counties

- The potential for very heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding can be expected at times through the coming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Warm and sticky conditions are expected for the upcoming week into the weekend, with chances for showers and storms each day.

The main concern will be the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding over the coming week. Moisture is already surging in the southern portion of our area, and a few showers/storms that are moving in may contain very heavy rainfall and the threat of localized flooding this afternoon into tonight mainly across our far SW counties. The threat of flooding looks heightened on Monday as weak short wave energy traverses the area. Models portray a very moist airmass with PWAT values surging to around 2 inches across the much of the area, which are near record values for early June in our area. Flow is weak and storms are expected to move slowly, and the expected modest CAPE looks to be of the tall skinny variety which coupled with high freezing levels will favor very efficient warm rain processes and the potential for very heavy rainfall rates. CAMS are showing the potential for localized areas of very heavy rainfall, and rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour look possible. Pinpointing the exact locations where very heavy rainfall will occur is not possible at this time, although the risk looks highest across the Plateau and our southern and central counties. Will issue a flash flood watch for our TN and NC counties for Monday.

PWAT values are forecast to remain elevated for much of the coming week as no strong drying is forecast anytime soon, although ensemble data indicates values will be a bit lower than on Monday. Daily showers and storms can be expected each day, especially during the afternoon and evening in response to peak heating. There will continue to be the potential for very heavy rainfall rates and localized flooding, especially in areas that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 746 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Messy TAF period ahead. Rain showers will be gradually dissipating over the next few hours in southern Tennessee, but low ceilings are likely to maintain overnight. Northwards, TYS and TRI will maintain VFR status a little longer. Showers, and eventually a few tstorms, will spark again as early as 8z and persist for the remainder of the TAF period across the central and southern TN valleys, bringing MVFR or IFR conditions and heavy rain to TYS and CHA. TRI has the lowest probabilities of seeing heavy rainstorms or category reductions, though again a low risk for MVFR conditions near 12z is possible at TRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 80 68 84 / 70 90 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 80 68 84 / 30 80 50 80 Oak Ridge, TN 69 79 67 83 / 40 90 50 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 86 67 84 / 0 60 50 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch from 7 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ Monday through Monday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley- Campbell-East Polk-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Union-West Polk.

Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke- Northwest Greene-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan- Unicoi-Washington TN.

VA...NONE.