textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Very warm this afternoon with possible record highs being broken again.

- Showers and a strong cold front cross the area tonight and early Monday morning.

- Strong gusty winds expected area-wide this afternoon through Monday, especially across the higher elevations tonight. Either Wind Advisories or a Special Weather Statement is in effect.

- Much colder air moves in behind the front. Wind chills near zero are expected across the higher elevations Monday night, and highs in the 30s on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

One more day of well above average temperatures before a big pattern change beginning tonight. Low 70s are currently being reported across parts of the valley this afternoon already. Will include climate stats below.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 12-28 73(2015) 76(2015) 73(2021) 72(2021)

Southerly to southwesterly winds are also occurring. Expect these to increase throughout the day and overnight tonight. A low center currently over Iowa and Illinois, will deepen through the day as it tracks towards the Great Lakes. A cold front will then develop and trail it to the southwest. Damming to the east under high pressure will kick-start the winds over the Southern Appalachians likely earlier than anywhere else because of increasing pressure gradient. This will not be a true mountain wave set-up for the Southern Appalachians given the flow direction with the frontal passage, but there will still be gusts to near 50 mph, as indicated by the Wind Advisory in place there. Wind Advisories were also added for the plateau and southwest Virginia counties. Upon looking at the latest guidance from HREF, RRFS, and others, winds appear they will generally remain below advisory level for the rest of the forecast area - valley and SW NC. A Special Weather Statement through Monday morning was issued there mentioning gusts up to 35 mph, with possible pockets of near 40 mph. After 7 am or so, winds will slowly decrease from west to east, but will hang on for the most part for the eastern higher terrain. The primary direction following the front will be from the west.

The warmest temperatures tomorrow will likely occur near midnight for the forecast area, as the front makes its mark during the overnight hours. A line of showers will accompany the front, but the most we can expect are gusts translated down to the surface from aloft with any gusty showers. The strongest of any storms or severe weather threat, will remain close to the low's center south of Michigan. It appears any influence of return- flow/northwesterly flow behind the low will remain to our north.

With lows in the 20s and teens for the higher terrain forecast Tuesday morning and some winds persisting for the higher terrain as well, wind chills near 0 will be possible.

Weather turns dry later tomorrow through Wednesday. High temperatures will rebound 10 degrees or so from Tuesday into Wednesday. A weak system will approach from the north Thursday into Friday, bringing a chance of light precipitation, with best chances across the northern part of the forecast area. By next weekend, precipitation chances increase from the south as the front stalls to our south. Where this sets up may determine how much precipitation we see. The southern valley and SW NC could sure use some beneficial rain to remove some of the moderate drought.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are expected through the period. Gusty winds are expected at all sites, generally to around 25kts, but slightly higher at TYS. The highest winds are expected with the line of showers that moves through late tonight. Gusty winds begin out of the south and southwest. Then will see a wind shift to westerly late tonight. Then, CHA will shift to out of the NW by sunrise.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 49 24 41 / 90 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 46 22 37 / 90 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 44 22 37 / 100 20 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 48 20 33 / 80 30 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne- Marion-Morgan-Scott TN-Sequatchie.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.