textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 213 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Unseasonably warm with mostly dry weather through Thursday.

- Frost potential for this weekend. Consider bringing frost sensitive plants indoors.

- Dry with a warming trend early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

We start the period under a large upper ridge parked over the southeastern US, providing dry and unseasonably warm conditions. Patchy river valley fog looks likely again tonight, but it currently looks likely to be less than occurred early this morning. Temperatures will be approaching, or in some cases possibly exceeding, daily record highs today through Thursday.

Record highs through Thursday: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-13 88(1954) 89(1935) 86(1954) 84(2017) 10-14 87(1954) 87(1881) 85(1954) 85(1954) 10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021)

A weak cold front will sag southward toward our northern areas as a mid/upper level short wave skirts by to our north late Wed night/Thursday, but the front will likely stall near our northern border and then retreat north. We may see a few showers mainly north Thursday as the front approaches. CAPE generally looks very limited, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out far north.

An upper trough digging in out of Canada will push a much stronger cold front through our area Friday. This front will not bring much if any precipitation as moisture looks very limited and shallow at best, but a few showers will be possible mainly north and mountains. Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest Friday.

Surface high pressure will build in along with colder and drier air behind the front. This colder airmass will bring night time temperatures into the range where frost may occur especially across our northern areas. The best chance for frost looks to be Saturday night, but Friday night (probably too much wind for frost) and Sunday nights will be quite chilly as well. After a cool day Saturday with well below normal high temperatures, we will see a warming trend through next Tuesday with dry conditions continuing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Main concern is possible fog development again late tonight. Confidence is not high, but the highest chances look to be at TRI and to lesser extent CHA again. Will include no lower than MVFR conditions both sites for now, but lower conditions are possible. Otherwise, will have a VFR forecast for the period all sites. Winds will generally be light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.