textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 740 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight. No frost or freeze products expected.

- Slight chance of rain tomorrow morning across southwest VA and slight chance thunder in afternoon.

- Warming trend this week.

- Chances for widespread showers and storms late tuesday night through Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight across the area. Therefore, no frost/freeze products are expected to be issued. However, there is a low-end chance that a few sheltered valley locations across the east TN mountains, northeast TN and southwest VA may see some patchy frost.

NBM still showing some slight chance and low-end chance POPs across southwest VA for tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. This is due to a weak impulse traversing mean flow aloft. Based on latest deterministic models and CAMs, NBM POPs seem reasonable so will leave them be. Any morning activity that occurs will be rain. Then, slight chance thunder with any afternoon activity.

Best chance of widespread rain, and some storms, occurs late Tuesday night through Thursday morning. This is in response to an approaching cold front and emerging shortwave from out of the Central Plains states. There are several things we are watching with this system.

Winds: A prolonged period of breezy/gusty winds are expected across the east TN mountains in response to an increase in the LLJ. From Tuesday through Thursday, expect mountain winds to be breezy at times. The highest peaks may see on and off gusts between 30 and 40 mph.

Precip: NBM precip probs haven't changed too much since the last cycle. They generally show 60 to 80% probs of seeing at least 1" or greater amounts for this event. The 2" probs between Knoxville and Chattanooga are around 40/50%. However, there are much lower probs, around 20%, across northeast TN and southwest VA to see 2" or greater.

Storms: LREF joint probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and Bulk Shear > 40kts are similar this run as well. These probabilities generally range between 40-60% along and south of interstate 40. The current day 4 SPC outlook highlights areas just to our southwest. It's not unreasonable that we could at least see a marginal risk in place along and south of I-40 on the next update, new day 3. While CAPE continues to be a limiting factor in the overall severe threat, wind shear will be plenty. Biggest concern as of now continues to be locally gusty winds and heavy downpours with any stronger storms.

Cooler and drier conditions end the week post FROPA, with the potential for another quick shot of light rain next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions for the period. Winds will be light over night, with southwest winds between 10-15kts expected tomorrow afternoon. Potential showers in vicinity of TRI for a brief period tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 43 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 76 49 78 / 10 10 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.