textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations, with lower chances for the valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Significant snow accumulations will be possible mainly across the higher terrain.

- Additional snow showers will be possible this weekend, especially over the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

High pressure over the region will keep things dry today through Tuesday, with some gradual warming. Highs Tuesday will be a few degrees above seasonal normals.

By Wednesday, an upper trough will be digging from the west and northwest, and a cold front will be approaching. A strong upper jet diving southeast on the back side will amplify the trough over the central and southern Appalachians by Wednesday morning. Much colder air will be pushing in behind the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.

Confidence is high on this general scenario for Wednesday/Thursday, but the details are much murkier. Models solutions have been all over the place as to how the forcing evolves, especially as it relates to possible valley snow. Model trends over the past 24 hours have seen even the more bullish models for snow (led by the GFS) backing off, and ensemble probabilities for accumulating snow in the valleys have been dropping. Right now, latest NBM probabilities for greater than an inch of snow for much of the northern and central valley are less than 20%. However, the confidence for significant snow accumulations over the higher elevations is much higher. The initial precipitation as the front and upper trough move in, which will likely start as rain over the lower elevations, will either start as snow or quickly change over in the highest terrain. In addition, a period of northwest flow and cold advection will lead to orographically forced snow showers that will linger into Thursday. Several inches of snow are likely over the higher mountain peaks of the mountains by the end of Thursday. Travel impacts will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday especially over the higher terrain areas of SW VA, the Plateau, and the E TN mountains.

A few flurries may linger into Thursday night especially northeast and mountains, but by Friday we will be between systems with a dry but cold day across the area.

For the weekend, models are in general agreement that we will see additional short wave energy moving in and reinforcing the upper trough over the region. The details are still very uncertain, but additional light precipitation is possible which thermal profiles suggest would likely be in the form of snow showers. Monday looks to be mainly dry but cold.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with only high clouds passing by at times. Pressure gradients will increase across the region during the midday time frame tomorrow. The restriction of the TN valley, coupled with pressure gradients and enough mixing, could produce some 15-20kt gusts at KTYS after 18z. Not supremely confident in that however so just have a FM group to introduce some 23011KT winds there for now. Elsewhere, expect winds to remain below 7kt through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 30 58 39 52 / 0 0 0 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 55 39 50 / 0 0 0 80 Oak Ridge, TN 27 53 36 48 / 0 0 0 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 52 34 47 / 0 0 0 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.