textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

- Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through Saturday.

- Mountain wave high winds continue through this afternoon for the far east Tennessee Mountains and Foothills.

- Multiple rounds of showers, and a few embedded storms, are expected from late this morning through Saturday. The probabilities for severe weather and flooding, while still not zero, are both lower than they were with the previous forecast.

- Seasonally colder conditions will return by Sunday into early next week with chances for high elevation snow showers on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

An active weather pattern remains in place through Saturday.

Rain: The latest WPC QPF amounts have trended downward. Storm total rainfall amounts from today through Saturday have decreased areawide and now range from around 1.5 to 2 inches for most of the area. Southwest NC still could see some isolated amounts over 3 inches. This reduction in storm totals comes from lower totals with the second wave of rain late tonight into Saturday. This is due to models shifting the re-surging 850mb jet further south with this second wave. Model consensus for now shows the jet more centered across central Alabama and Georgia, with the northern extent of the jet right along the TN/GA/NC state lines. This scenario would result in lower precip totals across most of our area. This trend shift was seen in the previous forecast, and now with that trend continuing, will hold off again on any flood watch products. This trend shift doesn't mean the threat of flooding is zero, just lower probabilities. Stay tuned though, as a northward shift in the 850mb jet would increase rainfall totals again.

Wind: A 40 to 50kt 850mb jet currently resides across our area. Cove Mountain had a peak gust to 48 mph at 8:00 PM but has since fallen into the lower 40s. A Wind Advisory will continue across the east TN mountains and foothills through this afternoon. The current advisory expires at 18Z but it's possible that it may need to be extended by a few hours as models don't show a big decrease in the jet until 21Z. Expect wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph to continue across the advisory area through this afternoon. With the southern shift in the jet for the late tonight into Saturday period, as discussed above, this would most likely prevent another round of advisory level winds across the east TN mountains.

Storms: The storm threat continues to look very low across our area. The latest round of model data shows mostly elevated instability through the entire event. However, the two periods to keep an eye on are the late tonight period, and then again on Saturday afternoon. These are the two timeframe when we could see some low-end surface CAPE across the area up to a few hundred J/kg. Current HREF probs for SBCAPE up to 100 J/kg for tonight are roughly 20 to 30% south of I-40. Then around 10 to 20% for Saturday afternoon. Because of these very low SBCAPE values and probs, the threat for any tornadoes is extremely low. The main concern, for now, with any stronger storms would be straight line wind damage.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

As rain continues to approach from the west, CHA has already reported MVFR conditions for some time with further reductions expected. The same trend can be expected at TYS and TRI but will be much later in the day, likely not until the bulk of the rain arrives. LLWS will also remain for the rest of the morning and possibly into the early afternoon at TRI and TYS. For CHA, LLWS has been left out because of increasing wind gusts being observed at the surface. Another increase in rain is expected late tonight into early Saturday morning, but IFR will likely already be ongoing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 59 66 37 / 90 100 100 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 57 64 35 / 90 100 100 20 Oak Ridge, TN 65 56 62 35 / 100 100 100 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 54 62 33 / 90 90 100 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.