textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Dry through Saturday.

- Breezy today.

- Cooler Thanksgiving Day, with moderating temperatures heading into the weekend.

- Rain returns Sunday, with active/rainy weather continuing into the first part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Regional radar imagery showed some lingering showers across east Tennessee as of 11pm EST tonight ahead of a couple of cold fronts set to move through the CWA after midnight and finally towards daybreak. Some rain could continue overnight but largely speaking, rainfall is essentially over with. Low clouds and perhaps some patchy fog will be the bulk of what we have left to deal with before drier air with the westernmost front, currently from roughly Louisville, KY through Jackson, TN, pushes through the region.

For today, expect dry and still-mild weather behind the front but with increasingly breezy conditions. Surface pressure gradients will be strong in response to a nearly sub-990mb surface low wrapping up over Michigan today. While not especially deep, generally below 800 mb, mixing will be deep enough to tap into some westerly 20-30kt flow around H85 which when combined with the pressure gradients, should lead to some 25-30 mph gusts this afternoon from roughly the Knoxville metro area northward towards the Tri-Cities region. But even the southern valley will be a little windy too.

For Thanksgiving Day and Friday, expect dry but cooler conditions as we remain beneath northwest flow aloft and a potent northern branch jet. High pressure moves in from the west/northwest Friday into Saturday for moderating temperatures as upper flow transitions to more of a zonal pattern briefly.

Guidance shows another large scale troughing pattern developing over the central and eastern CONUS for Sunday, leading to another round of widespread rainfall across the region by Sunday afternoon. Obviously this is still a few days out so timing and details could change, but I'd say the agreement in guidance is high enough to leave the low-end likely PoPs the NBM is advertising for Sunday in the forecast. The uncertainty for the longer term part of the forecast is really what happens Sunday night through Tuesday. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF runs show a +1030mb surface high sliding southeast out of the Alberta and Saskatchewan Canadian provinces. That's not overly impressive in terms of cold temperatures for this time of year, and the trajectory isn't great for us to have frigid temperatures in place early next week. And indeed guidance supports this. Still, with additional impulses moving through the trough and subsequently the southern Appalachian region during the early part of next week, it's not out of the question that some brief wintry precipitation could occur during the overnight hours at some point. Left some rain/snow mix in the forecast in various places, but again this is a very low confidence forecast at this point.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

MVFR conditions will continue until mid morning. A cold front will move through the region mid to late morning bringing gusty westerly winds and clearing skies. Winds will subside around sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 34 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 31 46 24 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 31 45 24 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 29 42 22 / 20 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.