textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

- A system will move through the southeast, bringing rain chances to southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina tonight and tomorrow.

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend, with a warming trend early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Temperatures are expected to run below normal through the weekend before we warm back up to near normal Monday afternoon. Later today may end up a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, but a moisture starved cold front is expected to cross the area later today. A system along the Gulf, trapped mostly to our south due to the trough, will move towards the Mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. This will skirt the south and southeast portion of the forecast area, bringing increased rain chances later tonight into tomorrow. The forecast currently calls for no more than a quarter of an inch, at least over Clay County, closest to the system. The bulk of the moisture will remain out of our area. Given the stable conditions and essentially no CAPE, thunderstorms not expected.

Following the exit of the aforementioned system and previously mentioned cold front, troughing and lower heights aloft will move into the area later tomorrow into Sunday, with strengthening surface high pressure. Cooler highs tomorrow as a result, as well as cold Sunday morning lows anticipated. Areas of and possibly, widespread frost Sunday morning for portions of northeast TN, southwest VA, the plateau, and the Southern Appalachians. Temperatures nearest or below freezing appear most likely for the highest elevations of the Smokies and Cherokee National Forest where the TN, NC, and VA state lines meet. Since we are now well into the growing season, a Frost Advisory for parts of the forecast area Sunday morning could be likely. Winds will be light, but the limiting factor could be just how close the temperatures can actually reach the dewpoint that morning, given the dry air moving in. Either way, very cold temperatures for early May, where lows at the three climate sites average 20 degrees warmer than what is forecast.

A corner is turned come Monday, where high pressure moves to the E/SE, providing southwesterly return flow to the area, thus, warming temperatures. Highs generally around normal Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, with valley highs in the mid to upper 70s. Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe, a cold front with possible areawide rain will impact the region. Too soon to know for certain if this will bring a threat of strong to severe storms. However, cooler temperatures will follow this system to finish out the first full week of May

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. A light rain shower may be around CHA near the end of the period, but for now the probability looks too low to include in the TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 50 68 43 / 10 40 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 49 65 40 / 0 20 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 47 65 39 / 0 10 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 45 61 35 / 10 10 20 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.