textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

- Dry and cool conditions are expected today with light snowfall in portions of southwest Virginia late tonight.

- A warming trend will continue with another system bringing chances for light rain on Friday, especially in southern portions of the area.

- Dry and seasonally milder conditions will continue this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Currently, broad troughing is centered to our north and east with ridging over the Rockies. This setup will continue the norhwesterly flow pattern over the region with high pressure to our south and west. For the day on Wednesday, dry and cool conditions will persist with high pressure gradually receding to the south. At the same time, a weak shortwave will dive down from the Great Lakes with a jet streak of over 110 kts approaching from the west. This will put the region in the left-exit region of the jet, leading to some lift. A plume of moisture is also forecast to dive down into northwestern portions of the region Wednesday night into Thursday, sufficient for light precipitation in southwest Virginia. With temperatures below freezing, snowfall is expected with QPF totals approaching a tenth of an inch in higher elevation places. As such, light accumulations are forecast in those areas.

On Thursday, moisture will exit the region with troughing lifting and a more zonal flow pattern aloft. By Friday, a weak system is expected to eject out of the Rockies and track through the southern Plains and then into the Deep South. With this continually southward shifting track, better PoPs will be focused in southern portions of the area. Based on the latest guidance, temperatures are forecast to be above freezing at or below 850mb, keeping precipitation as all rain. With this southern track, rainfall totals will be limited in our area, compared to places in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. By Saturday, this system will have tracked off to our east with broad ridging and a return of high pressure leading to warmer and drier conditions. This same pattern will persist Sunday into early next week with varying indications of a front approaching by Tuesday. At this time, confidence is limited on timing and how much moisture will be present, but a return of low-end rain chances is the only current expectation, if anything.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast. However, a 5kft cloud deck will remain across TRI and possibly TYS at times until around sunrise. Winds will remain westerly 5 to 15 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 31 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 29 50 33 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 47 28 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 29 43 28 / 0 10 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.