textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in SE TN and SW NC; some may be strong to severe.

- Very hot temperatures continue with afternoon heat index values reaching 100-105 degrees in most Valley locations; Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday.

- Temperatures drop closer to normal with increasing rain chances next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Not much has changed with the forecast thinking for the next few days. We remain under the influence of a large high pressure ridge that sits across the central Appalachians. Convection today will once again develop around the southern edge of the ridge, across SW NC/northern GA/northern AL. Instability will be plentiful, with MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg, but how much the cap will hold back development is the question. Forecast soundings show a strong cap that will likely hold along and north of I-40, while areas south will have a weaker cap. Storms that are able to develop will do so quickly and very deep, with the potential for strong to severe downburst winds. Hail will be mainly small but isolated 1" hail cannot be ruled out. SPC has our southern half in a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon.

Friday looks to be another day of very hot temperatures and a very unstable atmosphere. Once again, expect the best coverage of storms to be south of Interstate 40, with damaging straight line winds from microbursts being the main threat.

A Heat Advisory continues in effect from today through Friday. Heat index values around or above 100 will common in the afternoons, and heat index values may exceed 105 in some spots.

With better coverage of afternoon showers/storms expected on Saturday as the large ridge gives way, temperatures may be a little lower, so the Heat Advisory will not be extended into Saturday at this time. Storms on Saturday will likely initiate over the mountains and drift northward into the TN Valley in the mid/late afternoon hours, with most of them dissipating by sunset.

For next week, we should see a downward trend of high temperatures with an upward trend in PoPs as the large ridge begins to weaken and drift east, allowing shortwave disturbances to cross the area from the west.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Largely a persistent forecast for the 18Z cycle. A few showers and storms may develop over the next few hours, with the most likely terminal to be impacted CHA. Based on latest cu field trends, did not feel confident enough to leave a mention at TYS. Brief fog development will be possible at TRI early Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 99 77 98 75 / 30 20 50 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 96 74 96 73 / 10 10 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 97 75 98 74 / 10 10 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 97 71 98 70 / 0 0 30 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne- Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton- Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn- Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA- Washington VA-Wise.