textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 640 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Friday remains dry with cooler temperatures across the region.

- A significant winter storm impacting the Southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley in likely Saturday through Sunday. However, it must be stressed that details on where the axis of heaviest precipitation and resulting wintry precip totals remain unclear. Most areas will see a complex wintry mix with mostly snow/sleet across northern areas and mostly sleet/freezing rain/rain across southern areas.

- Wintry weather will result in significant travel impacts Saturday evening through Sunday morning with localized power outages possible due to the ice accumulation.

- Cold air behind this weekend's storm will keep temperatures at/below freezing during the day on Monday with some very cold temperatures by Tuesday morning. This will prolong the effects of any winter weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

A significant winter storm is expected to impact the Southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, and much of the south and central CONUS, through the weekend. We are currently in a colder, longwave troughing pattern across the Eastern CONUS with ridging across the eastern Pacific. A northern stream shortwave will begin to phase with an ejecting southern vort max on Sunday resulting in a quickly intensifying surface low pressure system that will move northeast across the East Coast.

Strong high pressure to the north keeps us dry today and Friday, but increasing southerly flow aloft will result in increased cloud cover late Friday into Saturday morning. As isentropic lift increases across the region, light precipitation will be possible Saturday morning, but dry air at the surface will limit any accumulating snow or sleet. By the afternoon, the surface becomes saturated with wintry precipitation expected to begin accumulating across the region. To begin, areas near Interstate 40 and northward are expected to have the entire atmospheric column below freezing which will result in some potential snow to start on Saturday afternoon. As southerly flow and WAA continues to warm temperatures between 850mb and 800mb, temperatures increase to around +2 to +3 degC by late Saturday night and Sunday morning. This will result in a lot of sleet and a transition to freezing rain across the region. In addition, the southerly flow and subsidence along the western slopes of the Appalachians will result in warming surface temperatures across the western slopes of the mountains with areas around Gatlinburg to Newport to Greeneville likely warming up above freezing pretty quickly on Saturday night. This will limit ice accumulation for these areas.

Across the valley and plateau, there are several variables that will determine total snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulation. The first variable is the cold air aloft. Most of the snow will be limited to areas near the Kentucky state line, and snow totals will likely be compacted by sleet and freezing rain mixing in on Saturday night. Further south, sleet and freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation types on Saturday afternoon and night. The second uncertain variable is the warm nose temperature around 800mb overnight; It will be near the sleet/freezing rain cutoff. We likely get a mix of both sleet and freezing rain for much of central East Tennessee, but depending on the exact mix, we may have significantly more ice accretion due to freezing rain or significantly more sleet (and less ice accretion). In addition, the third variable is how cold are surface temperatures and where do we wet bulb? Model guidance has significant variability in dew points ahead of the precipitation, but based on the consensus of most guidance, we should be cold enough in the mid 20s to get a decent amount of ice accumulation before temperatures begin to warm into Sunday morning.

Overall, a large portion of the region will likely see a trace to a half-inch of sleet and one-quarter to one- half inch of ice accumulation. Southern areas near the Georgia state line may only see a trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice before the transition to rain. The caveat across the south is the higher elevations around Chattanooga such as Signal Mountain, Mowbray Mountain, Lookout Mountain, and surrounding portions of the southern plateau may see higher ice totals up to around 0.5 inch. Still, even the lower amounts would cause significant travel impacts on Saturday evening through Sunday morning. This forecast is likely to change as we continue to refine the forecast with the most recent observations tonight and tomorrow, so please continue to follow the latest updates. Because of the uncertainty in precipitation types and amounts, we will continue with the Winter Storm Watch to message the risk of significant winter weather hazards, and we will plan on upgrades to warnings or advisories tonight or tomorrow when we are within 24 to 36 hours of the event beginning.

On Sunday afternoon, the main 850mb low will be to our west with WAA finally warming most, if not all, areas above freezing. Temperatures will likely be slower to warm on Sunday morning across the valley compared to what deterministic models indicate because of the cold, dense air entrenched across the valley. WAA should finally win out by the afternoon across the valley, but it will take some time. By Sunday night, northwest flow returns with strong CAA and very cold air arriving through the night and on Monday. We may continue to see some orographic snowfall or rime ice across the northeast Tennessee mountains through Monday morning, but accumulations should be light.

This very cold airmass will result in temperatures 20 to 25 degrees below normal on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday morning, temperatures drop down into the single digits for most locations with temperatures near or below zero across the higher elevations. Wind chill values across the higher terrain are forecast to be in the -5F to -15F range; however, calm winds across the lower elevations should mitigate the wind chill risk. Tuesday morning will be frigid across the region, though.

As we move into mid-week, max temperatures begin to moderate but remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front will bring a reinforcing cold airmass by late next week with temperatures struggling to get above freezing next Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Dry with VFR can be expected through the TAF period. Once westerly winds turn calm at TRI, winds at all sites will generally be from the NNEly direction. Gusts near 20KT possible Friday afternoon. Varying clouds and height through Friday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 48 28 38 / 10 10 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 46 25 36 / 10 10 10 80 Oak Ridge, TN 31 45 23 34 / 0 0 10 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 43 19 35 / 0 10 0 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley- Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger- Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox- Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday evening for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.