textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1255 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Very warm Tuesday through Saturday.

- Chances for showers and storms will increase by midweek and into the weekend, which may bring some relief from the near-term drought and wildfire conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

We start the period in a warm pattern with broad ridging across the region. The warm conditions will continue for the remainder of the work week into the first half of the weekend, with high temperatures expected to be around 15 degrees above seasonal normals most days from Tuesday through Saturday.

Most areas will be dry through Tuesday, although with the increase in moisture model soundings show some limited MLCAPE around or less than 500 J/kg Tuesday, and a few locations may see a shower or thunderstorm especially during the afternoon over the higher terrain. By Wednesday an upper trough will begin moving into the western Plains as the core of the upper ridge shifts to our east. Models indicate there will be a bit more convective energy to work with Wednesday as MLCAPE values likely reach into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much of the area, with a higher chance of seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday and Friday will likely see more of the same with isolated to scattered showers and storms both days, with an upper short wave likely pushing PoPs higher for Friday than Thursday.

A more significant system will affect the region during the weekend. An upper trough will move out of the Plains across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley dragging a cold front through our area sometime around the Sunday time frame, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. The forcing looks better with this system and there is the possibility of it bringing stronger storms to our area. However, current LREF data has the joint probability for the combination of greater than 250 J/kg of either MUCAPE or SBCAPE with 30+kts 0-500mb bulk shear at generally less than 10% across our area ahead of this system, so right now severe storm chances do not look high. Of course this will bear watching as we get closer and the details become more clear.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Light winds and some mid level clouds are expected for the rest of the night into the early morning hours. Throughout the day, increasing southwesterly winds are expected with gusts to 20 kts likely, especially at TYS. Cloud cover will increase some but still remain at or above 5,000 feet AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 60 84 60 / 20 10 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 60 83 59 / 20 10 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 81 59 82 59 / 20 10 50 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 56 80 54 / 20 10 60 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.