textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 742 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Main concern through early this morning will be fog.

- Dry weather continues today, then an approaching front will bring showers and storms on Thursday afternoon/evening, a few of which could be strong to severe. Rain chances continue into Friday with the frontal passage.

- Mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures through the weekend and early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Model guidance through early morning shows a wide range of fog outcomes, in terms of how widespread and density. For this reason, confidence is quite low on how fog may develop through early morning. Fog is already starting to show in northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia, according to Night Fog satellite imagery, but nothing widespread. Will keep mention of fog in the grids and will monitor trends through the early morning hours.

Dry weather continues today as we remain in a drier airmass behind the front. Plenty of sunshine, with temps near normal to slightly above.

On Thursday an upper trough, accompanied by a cold front, moves into the area from out of the Ohio River Valley. Shower and storm chances will increase as this feature passes through. As far as severe potential, the timing will play a huge role. If the front comes through during the morning hours then chances will be limited. If the front were to push through in the afternoon hours then our severe chances will increase as instability and shear will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. As of now, models are generally showing a morning arrival. This is likely why we are still in an SPC Day 2 general thunder outlook and not a marginal risk.

Thursday night into Friday morning, a reinforcing shortwave dives down into the trough and may bring another chance for overnight showers and storms that could persist into Friday.

Likely drier conditions on Saturday and Sunday due to the influx of drier air from the north. However, beyond the weekend, there are signs of another northwest flow pattern remaining across the area into next week. While NBM POPs are low, we will have to keep an eye out for any upstream impulses that may affect our area next week. Temperatures should be near normal throughout this timeframe.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 742 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

High pressure holds strong over the region this morning, with areas of dense fog. Only impacting TRI at this time, as the others remained VFR. Fog development possible again tonight at TRI. Following fog dissipation within the next hour or two, VFR and light & variable winds can be expected today, as well as continued dry conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 73 95 73 / 0 10 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 71 90 71 / 0 10 60 50 Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 88 70 / 0 20 70 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 67 85 66 / 0 10 50 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.