textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 707 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are expected through this morning. If multiple storms track over one location, isolated flooding will be possible.

- Additional periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible tomorrow and Tuesday. At this time, Tuesday afternoon and evening holds the greatest potential to have a few strong to severe storms with gusty winds the primary hazard.

- A warming trend begins today. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be the hottest days as heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s become more commonplace, especially in the central and southern valley.

- Mostly dry conditions with slight improvements to the heat and humidity are expected mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The pattern for the last week of July can be characterized by continual broad ridging to the west and troughing to the northeast, placing us within the region of northerly to northwesterly flow. The near stationary boundary from the past few days still resides to our south and will continue to drive the weather, at least through today. Through this morning and possibly into the afternoon, streams of showers and storms will glide over the region from the northwest. If they are able to line up and train over the same area, isolated flooding could be possible. Later today tries to dry out from northwest to southeast.

Later tonight and into tomorrow morning still remains a big question mark. 24 hours ago, models depicted a fairly stout shortwave rounding the top of the ridge, potentially bringing an MCS over or close to the area. It could very well just miss us to the west. Something to watch, even though high-res models cant's seem to all agree. Later in the day tomorrow may be dry for most with some isolated activity around.

A potentially stronger shortwave that may pass over the Great Lakes into Tuesday, will eventually bring a cold front across the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. This has now moved up in time compared to Friday night's forecast. Given the adjustment, assuming it doesn't change, the potential for severe weather will need to be closely monitored. At the time of this discussion, Day 3 and 4 from the SPC highlight northeastern parts of the area.

Following Tuesday potentially having the hottest temperatures of the week (upper 90s to low 100s heat indices in the valley), the cold front will send temperatures down a few degrees Wednesday until the end of the forecast period. Later Wednesday into Friday could be a brief dry period with lower humidity before we turn the page to August next weekend where precipitation chances return once again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 707 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Isolated showers will continue through the first several hours of this TAF cycle. Ceilings and visibilities are already low, but a shower could drop them to IFR or lower. Conditions will improve in the late morning hours, and should return to VFR for much of the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 73 93 75 / 20 0 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 71 90 75 / 20 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 91 74 / 20 0 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 86 69 / 20 10 20 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.