textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 228 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through this week. Record highs are possible.

- There is very limited chances for light rain through the forecast period. This will result in worsening drought and fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

In general, the upper ridging over Florida and the northern Gulf will largely maintain control over the weather across East Tennessee for much of the coming week, keeping any impulses in the upper levels situated to our northwest and resulting in continued hot and dry conditions for much of the CWA. It's possible the ridge breaks down by Thu/Fri, allowing an upper trough and associated surface front to swing through the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys. Confidence is low however, especially with regards to how much rain might fall with any frontal passage.

Monday: An upper jet streak will traverse the Ohio valley during the morning hours. This coupled with broad moist return flow from the lower Mississippi valley up into eastern Kentucky, may be enough enough for some sparse showers over middle TN and into the northern plateau and our Virginia counties late Monday morning into the early afternoon hours. However, I'm not terribly impressed with the rain chances. Forecast soundings show essentially a dry atmosphere below 10-11k feet at Crossville, Knoxville, and Tri-Cities during the day. I wouldn't be surprised to see some returns on radar, but it may be mostly virga with little to no rain reaching the ground. Otherwise, we will see good mixing again on Monday with gradient flow producing gusts into the 20-25kt range across much of the TN valley. Will once again side with NBM 10th percentile dewpoints, with resulting afternoon RH values dipping into the 25-30 percent range. One caveat to all of this would be that, depending on how thick and expansive the mid clouds area, forecast highs could be too high, especially in the north where the better mid level moisture is. This could also affect afternoon RH values. Nevertheless, fire weather concerns will remain elevated accordingly, and will continue the SPS for fire danger in our Virginia counties. We also remain highlighted by SPC with respect to fire weather concerns on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday:

Upper ridge amplifies over the northern Gulf and Florida panhandle region on Tuesday, with the upper flow becoming increasingly amplified to our west as a trough digs into the plains. This pattern continues through Thursday and will keep dry conditions in place locally as the best moisture return is shunted further northwest. Afternoon highs will climb Tuesday onward as the high strengthens, with calendar day record highs within reach Tuesday and Wednesday for sure. Increasing clouds on Thursday may limit the potential for record heat that day. Will continue to include the record temperatures section in the AFD below. Afternoon RH will continue to run low, but should mostly be in the 30-35 percent range as opposed to dipping below 30 for Tuesday through Thursday due to persistent southerly flow.

Thursday onward:

Models show the ridge weakening and a disturbance approaching from the west by late Thursday. NBM has some 25-35 percent rain chances mainly over the plateau and northern counties Thursday night into Friday morning, which seems reasonable for now. Certainly doesn't look like a slam dunk case for rain. Better chances may exist beyond the forecast period, during the latter half of next weekend.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017) 04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017) 04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024) 04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002) 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Strengthening LLJ will lead to a period of LLWS for the AM hours. S to SW winds will gust between 15 and 25 knots starting around noon and continue through the early evening hours. Increased coverage of mid to high level clouds are also expected for the period, though conditions will remain VFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 60 85 60 / 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 80 58 85 58 / 10 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 54 83 57 / 20 10 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.