textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 228 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Showers and storms with the potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall expected through this evening; isolated tornado threat south of I-40.

- Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then, daily rain chances return late in the week, with temperatures near normal.

- A hot and dry pattern develops next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A well-defined MCV is located over West TN, and will track east through the evening. Storms are expected to develop and intensify across northern MS/AL ahead of it, potentially reaching severe levels in a very moist and unstable air mass. The MCV induces a low pressure center to form along the cold front, and this low tracks across TN as it strengthens. In response the LLJ increases to around 50 kt, giving adequate low level shear for a low-end tornado threat in southern portions of our area. We are seeing clouds break up in the southern Valley, allowing for surface heating and destabilization over the next few hours. Mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values reaching 1000-1500 J/kg south of I-40, with effective shear in the 30-35 kt range, which will support a threat of severe storms. CAMS differ on timing but what they do have in common is an organized area of shower/storms, potentially in the form of a QLCS, tracking across northern AL/GA and southern East TN this evening. Damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out anywhere given the strong winds aloft, but the southern Valley seems the most likely area for severe storms with a potential for isolated tornadoes. The most likely time frame for this threat appears to be between 6 pm and 10 pm.

Showers persist behind the departing low through most of the night as a mid/upper trough will cross the area. Dry air aloft and a stable layer at 850-700 mb build in around 12Z. A NW flow and a little low level CAPE may keep a few showers going into the day across eastern sections and mountains tomorrow, but most of the area will be dry and cooler.

For the rest of the week, we will have a pattern that is nearly zonal with a few weak disturbances moving through. Chance to slight chance PoPs will be in the forecast each day until next week when a large ridge is expected to build across the Southeast. This will likely bring dry and hot weather for Sunday and Monday, and potentially beyond.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Gusty SW winds are observed at all sites this afternoon, and this will continue through much of the evening. Showers/storms are expected to increase through the afternoon over northern AL and southern Middle TN, and track east. TS with MVFR vis/cigs are likely at all sites between 22Z and 03Z. Showers with a few isolated TS will persist after that time until a front crosses the area around 06Z, when winds will shift to the west. Clouds will remain MVFR through the night in the moist air mass, and TRI may drop down to IFR (low confidence). We should see cigs rising late in the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 84 64 86 / 90 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 82 61 85 / 90 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 67 83 61 86 / 90 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 79 55 84 / 90 30 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.