textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 233 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue today.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon, becoming more widespread tonight into Sunday morning as a cold front approaches.

- Cold front Sunday morning will bring cooler temperatures early next week and dry weather Sunday afternoon through the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Upper level ridging will gradually breakdown as a trough progresses into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions today into Sunday. Diurnal convection is becoming more prominent on the regional radar mosaic as an initial vorticity lobe helps kick start the ridge breakdown this afternoon. Both MLCAPE and DCAPE are around 500- 700J/kg per latest mesoanalysis. Strongest convection could bring brief heavy downpour, small hail, or locally gusty winds, but severe is unlikely.

As H5 heights fall this evening into tonight, a swly H85 jet near 40- 45kts and surface cold front will translate across the forecast area. Warm and moist air advection from the LLJ will promote moderate low-level shear with marginal elevated CAPE per latest hi- resolution guidance. Latest SPC HREF run depicts quickly diminishing SBCAPE as the main axis of convection moves in, with soundings showing a low level inversion developing. This will help limit potential hazards. The primary threat will be strong to isolated damaging wind gusts. It is also possible to have some small hail. While there is some decent low-level shear, the aforementioned inversion will keep the tornado threat very close to zero. A period of gusty winds up to 35mph is also likely in the East Tennessee mountains. While conditions are not favorable for advisory level winds widespread, it wouldn't catch me by surprise to see Cove Mountain gusting to around 40-45mph.

Rain chances will linger into the morning hours, with the area expected to remain largely dry as we go through Sunday afternoon. Cooler temperatures can be expected through Tuesday, with a gradual warming trend mid and late week as the upper trough ejects northeast. An extended period under the effect of high pressure and associated subsidence seems likely, with a dry forecast through the remainder of the 7 day period. Afternoons through the work week will entail low afternoon relative humidities. Higher terrain and northern areas could see some potential morning frost conditions if overnight RH recovery is strong enough Mon-Wed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms late tonight into the overnight. Reduced visibility and MVFR cigs are expected as this activity spreads across the region. A return to VFR conditions is expected at CHA late morning, with MVFR cigs persisting into the early afternoon at TRI and TYS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 68 44 70 / 100 70 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 65 41 66 / 100 80 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 67 40 68 / 100 60 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 64 37 64 / 100 90 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.