textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 723 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

- All precipitation types (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are expected over the next 24 hours as a significant winter storm moves through the southern Appalachian region.

- Light snow and sleet accumulations will be possible in the north, with icing potential having more significant impacts. The heaviest ice accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are most likely along the Cumberland Plateau/southern plateau, central and northeast East Tennessee, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Ice accumulations will be more uncertain along the foothills and southern Valley.

- High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and ridge tops on Saturday night into Sunday.

- Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 723 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Area reports are indicating that snow and sleet across northeast Tennessee is transitioning to freezing rain. This northward progression/transition to freezing rain will continue into southwest Virginia within the next couple of hours.

Across much of the area, except for southwest North Carolina and far southeast Tennessee, are experiencing freezing rain. The area with the greatest accumulation is across the Plateau and western sections of the Tennessee valley. Temperatures are running a couple of degrees cooler than afternoon guidance thus have lowered and made the transition to rain a little later in the morning Sunday.

Downsloping winds off the far east Tennessee mountains will allow for faster transition across the eastern counties in the valley first with ice accumulations a little lower. Overall, current warning and advisory winter headlines seem appropriate and no changes anticipated.

The winter headlines end 00Z Monday. The ending time will likely need to be trimmed back to mid-morning to early afternoon Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

No wholesale changes to the forecast for this afternoon's forecast package. The event is, for the most part, progressing as expected. Regional radar imagery shows light returns over East Tennessee, but surface observations reveal that precipitation is having a very difficult time making it to the ground thanks to the dry air in place. This is in line with high res models showing precip hanging up over middle TN and not showing the event starting in earnest over our forecast are until the mid afternoon hours. It will start as snow in the central and northern areas but should quickly transition to mixed ptypes like what happened in Chattanooga this morning. Observed conditions there have shown that the warm nose has been in place since this morning, with mixed ptypes occurring in the light precipitation region that far south since daybreak. Guidance continues to indicate that the H85 freezing line will be as far north as the KY/TN/VA border areas between 7 to 9pm this evening, indicating that snow is going to be extremely limited both in duration and accumulation. So, as we've been focused on the last day or so, this is primarily an icing concern. The combination of downslope flow, daytime heating, and strong warm nose aloft will limit ice potential in the eastern TN valley, with the highest totals west of I-75 and I-81 and in the northern areas as well.

Given the depiction of how quickly the warm air aloft advances north, I did lower ice totals a smidge. I didn't lower them enough to warrant any changes to the headlines we have out though. Still believe that ice accumulation east of the I-75 and I-81 corridors from Greeneville southward to our Georgia border will be highly variable given the later arrival time of precipitation and increasing downslope flow and effects that will have on temperatures. So the advisory still seems ok there. Lowered snow/sleet totals in the north but there's still enough of a mix to justify keeping them as a winter storm warning. And elsewhere, with freezing rain continuing to be the primary concern, and there still be a signal for notable icing, the ice storm warning seems appropriate there as well.

The one thing I would say is that most of the morning guidance has nearly all of our CWA changing to rain by 09z or thereabouts. If that holds true, our ice totals may be overdone. Since we've not really started the event yet, it's hard to justify making any significant changes.

Otherwise, the H85 flow on most all guidance still warrants the high wind warning, especially when coupled with the strong CAD east of the Appalachians and the resulting roughly 10mb pressure gradient between KGSP and KTYS.

Lastly, the post-frontal cold air is still on tap. Any lingering precipitation will likely change back over to some sort of mixed ptype regime Sunday evening as strong CAA takes over. Soundings show the low levels cooling dramatically Sunday evening. But we're going to run into a situation where there the column isn't saturated into the DGZ so we could end up with a mixed bag of ptypes and possibly a little northwest flow snowfall in the mountains. Monday we won't make it above freezing most likely, then we fall into the single digits. We will almost certainly need some headline to address the cold temperatures and wind chills, but I wanted to get past this event before issuing something for Monday night.

Beyond Monday night, we could see another weak system or two during the latter half of next week but they don't look very impactful and as we've seen...waiting for more clarity on details before talking specifics can be useful.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Unsettled pattern continues with frozen precipitation expected for much of the overnight period. MVFR to IFR cigs will build into CHA and TYS over the next few hours. Downslope winds off the mountains keep probabilities of MVFR cigs low at TRI. Will continue to monitor trends but do not introduce reduced cigs at TRI until later on Sunday. Precipitation will transition to all rain tomorrow morning and is expected to persist through the remainder of the TAF period. LLWS is also expected with an increasing presence of a strong LLJ tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 47 18 30 / 100 100 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 31 47 19 27 / 100 100 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 29 44 16 27 / 100 100 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 29 47 18 24 / 100 100 70 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Ice Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Ice Storm Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion- McMinn-Meigs-Rhea-Roane-Sequatchie.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for Campbell- Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Johnson-Morgan- Northwest Carter-Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-North Sevier- Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Washington TN-West Polk.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.