textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 656 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will impact the region through Sunday.

- High winds with gusts of 60 mph or more are likely over the Tennessee mountains and foothills, southwestern North Carolina, and portions of southwest Virginia. Gusty winds of 40 mph or more are likely area-wide.

- Locally heavy rainfall could also lead to isolated flooding, mainly in the southern Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Hurricane Isaias made landfall and is moving through the Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama. Its remnants will then progress north to NNW through the day, eventually tracking more northeast through Tennessee into Kentucky by Sunday. Within the past hours, high elevation observations have already confirmed wind gusts of over 35 mph with the 850mb flow exceeding 60 kts by the morning and remaining similarly high through the day. This will promote mountain wave enhanced winds for the mountains and foothills, along with breezy conditions for the rest of the area. The only change to the existing wind products was the addition of Cherokee and Clay Counties as high-res guidance does indicate surface winds reaching 60 mph or more, especially in Clay County. It is unclear how much will reach the lower elevations due to mixing and downsloping, but, but synoptic-scale winds and the MSLP gradient will remain strong area-wide. Winds will gradually decrease tonight as the flow weakens and becomes more southerly.

Regarding the rainfall, downsloping will limit rainfall totals in our eastern areas with the heavier totals expected in western and southern areas. Upsloping in North Carolina will produce much heavier totals, which could influence river levels, especially to our east. Otherwise, the flooding threat will be limited to more of our western and southern areas. Regarding the threat for convection, instability will be limited and elevated, keeping the severe threat to our south, but this could bring down more of the 850mb winds. The heaviest of the rain will fall from Saturday afternoon through the first half of Sunday night with diminishing coverage on Sunday.

As the remnants of Isaias lift to the north and east Sunday night into Monday, ridging and high pressure will build in, leading to drier conditions to start the week. As ridging expands from the south, a warming trend will take place with much of the region well into the 80s by mid-week. Another system may develop and track to our north during the second half of the week, which could bring a

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 656 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Rain from Isaias is spreading across the area this morning, and will continue through the day. As low level moisten at CHA, vis/cig will drop to MVFR and likely stay there through the day. At TYS and TRI, downslope winds off the mountains will keep vis/cig mainly VFR, with a heavier shower lowering vis to MVFR on occassion. Rain coverage will become more scattered in the afternoon and evening. Winds will increase through the morning, with some LLWS this morning as well until surface winds pick up. Surface winds become gusty from the E-NE during the day, around 30 kt expected, then decrease toward evening. LLWS may persist at TRI as surface winds drop off but winds aloft remain strong.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 62 73 58 / 100 90 30 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 63 71 60 / 90 90 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 72 61 70 58 / 100 90 70 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 61 73 59 / 90 90 90 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Cherokee-Clay.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk- Hamilton-Marion-Meigs-Rhea-Sequatchie-West Polk.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion- McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe- Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN- West Polk.

VA...High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Russell-Washington VA.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Lee-Scott VA-Wise.