textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 236 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

- A cold front will cross the area this evening with light showers/sprinkles possible in a few spots. Cooler temperatures follow for the weekend.

- Dry weather and near normal temperatures are expected for the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Visible satellite imagery highlights scattered stratus and cumulus over the region. These are tied to a broad trough over the Great Lakes region within the northwest cyclonic flow. Moisture is limited and precipitation is not expected outside of a few sprinkles. High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 60s this afternoon. Forecast soundings hint at a non-zero chance for patchy dense fog development in SW VA and NE TN, but scattered skies likely linger overnight tonight that could help limit fog development.

On Saturday, there is a signal for weak frontal passage that will bring another round of scattered clouds Saturday afternoon and evening. A few sprinkles can't be ruled out but dry low level air will likely limit actual precipitation. Temperatures top out in the low 60s. Sunday will be similar, but slightly warmer and mostly clear skies. The week ahead starts out with mild & dry weather conditions as we will have to look upstream for signals of a pattern change. The pattern begins to change on Wednesday as a deep trough digs in across the West Coast mid-week. This will amplify the mid- level pattern to with an impressive ridge forming over the west- central NOAM. We will see an trough drop out of Great Lakes region and cut off over the SE CONUS as an omega-like blocking pattern takes shape. Where this trough is centered over will likely see cooler, cloudier pattern with an increase chance of showers. For us, our highs will cool from the upper 60s in the first half of the week to the upper 50s and lower 60s in the second half. We'll monitor the situation to see how the finer details play out, but it's safe to expect cooler, cloudier weather as we head into next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

A scattered deck between 4-6kft is present across SW VA and middle TN. Morning fog has burned off and VFR conditions are forecast throughout the period. There is one caveat of the forecast: potential patchy dense fog Saturday morning. Forecast soundings are not a slam dunk. To address this uncertainty, I added an MVFR dip at TRI that can be adjusted with future TAFs. Winds shift back to the northwest on Saturday and remain below 10kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 45 61 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 59 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 40 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 40 58 32 61 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.