textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 640 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend, with a warming trend early next week.

- Next best chance for widespread showers and storms will be the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Currently, a shortwave is diving through the Ozarks and will continue into the southern Appalachians through the day. Regional radar paints a precip shield beneath a southern stream jet core atop southern portions of the Gulf States. This activity will progress eastward through the overnight/day. Latest hi-resolution guidance has remained consistent in holding the bulk of this precipitation to our south and east. The best chance for minimal light precip is in southwest NC and the mountains.

H5 heights falling to around -2 to -3 standard deviations this afternoon into Sunday will translate to below normal sfc temperatures. With clouds expected to mostly clear Saturday night, Sunday morning temperatures look supportive of frost for portions of northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. Some of highest peaks in the SW VA/TN mtns may see isolated temperatures at or just below freezing, but don't believe this will be widespread enough to warrant a freeze warning. Portions of the Cumberland Plateau may also see some patchy frost, but temps seem a tad more borderline at this time.

Minor H5 height rises and a shift to more amplified southwesterly flow in the low-levels will promote a warming trend back into the 70s early next week. Most will remain dry into the early week as well, though slight chance PoPs exist in our far north as a weak vort max translates through the southern Ohio Valley Monday.

A stronger shortwave is expected to reinforce the Great Lakes region troughing mid-week, with precip chances ramping up Wednesday/Wed Night. Latest NBM probabilities for rain accums 1.0" or greater are around 40-60%. Will also be worth keeping an eye on this system for strong/severe chances. Strong shear is all but certain, but instability may be a limiting factor, especially in the event of a nocturnal passage. There will also be potential for some late season mtn/foothill gusty winds with a southwesterly LLJ and tightening pressure gradient. Cooler and drier conditions end the week post FROPA.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will generally be north and northwest around 10kts today, with some higher gusts especially CHA. Winds will become light tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 44 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 43 68 47 / 10 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 66 40 69 46 / 10 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 38 64 42 / 10 10 0 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.