textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible at times today through the weekend. Best chances for rain during this period is along the Plateau, central & southern valley, and into the E TN mountains & SW NC. Relatively lower chances exist in NE TN and SW VA.

- By Sunday, temperatures will rise well into the 80s and low 90s. Hot and humid conditions alongside additional isolated to scattered storms at times for early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Generally speaking, the synoptic pattern consist of broad ridging across much of the CONUS with a weaker trough over the northeast. A stationary boundary remains situated along our southern CWA border, and will be the focus for some scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon. Due to the morning overcast conditions CAPE is more limited today, thus, strong convection threat is very low. Isolated flooding cannot be ruled out where poor antecedent conditions exist, but with the primary axis of convergence to our south and improved storm motion, the flooding threat is also much lower than previous days.

Shortwave energy will dive into the Great Lakes region tomorrow, with increasing chances for precipitation as a weak vort max rounds the base of the aforementioned trough, which will then be digging into the southern Apps. CAPE looks to be very limited so this will be predominately showers. Still some disagreement with CAMs on how exactly timing/coverage plays out, but trends lean towards a period of increased PoP chances Saturday morning into the afternoon. A brief lull will then be possible, with some additional PoP chances returning Sat night.

The trough axis looks to begin a slow eastward shift Sunday, with increasing H5 heights promoting a slight warming trend. Isolated convection cannot be ruled out in vicinity of higher terrain and southern valley Sunday afternoon, but most will remain dry for the bulk of the afternoon and evening. A drier vertical column with high DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates between 6.5-7degC could lead to gusty winds if storms can initiate.

Additional periods of showers and storms will be possible into early next week as bouts of energy round the base of the trough. Highest PoP chances will be in north and eastern areas. With enhanced shear due to marginal mid and upper level flow, periods of strong to severe storm chances cannot be ruled out depending on timing and availability of instability. Additionally, Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days with heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. A slight moderation in temperatures is expected late week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Clouds are scattering over most of the valley, but kept a more pessimistic near term at KTRI. Shower activity is generally in the eastern third and should continue to push east. Tonight cannot rule out a light drizzle, but near surface dry air in the southern two-thirds may prevent precipitation. KTRI is likely to re-enter MVFR conditions, with low potential for IFR CIGs as well. Once daylight returns, conditions will gradually return to VFR with low potential towards the end of the period for scattered rain showers from the northwest. Winds should remain light through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 86 72 90 / 10 40 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 85 70 88 / 20 20 40 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 85 69 88 / 10 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 81 64 84 / 50 10 0 20

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.