textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Daily scattered showers and thunderstorm chances, with most activity occurring in the afternoon and early evening hours each day.

- Main impacts from these storms will be strong/gusty winds, risk for urban and low lying flooding, and lightning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

An area of thunderstorms has developed across the northern Plateau. Some training noted with these storms as well taging with local terrain features. PWs 1.8 to 1.9 inches in this area with dewpoints in the lower and mid 70s. Localized flash flooding will be a concern. Latest MPD illustrates this threat as well.

For the remainder of today and this evening, an upper trough will remain across the mid-Mississippi valley with southwest flow over the southern Appalachians. Mid level water vapor loop depicts this upper low pressure trough over northern AR quite well.

SPC meso and TYS ACARS sounding shows an airmass characterized by moderate instability with MLCAPES of 1500-2000 and limited mid-level lapse rates of 5.5 degrees. Vertical profile is more saturated limiting DCAPE in the 500-700 range. Effective and 0-1km shear are quite limited so overall storm structure will be pulse in nature with some multi-cell. Overall, severe threat today is quite limited but enough thermodynamics to support gusts up to 35-45 mph range with the strongest convection.

PWs range from 1.7 to 1.9 inches with dewpoints in the lower and mid 70s most locations. 850mb moisture transport is quite limited due to weak boundary layer winds. If some of storms can tag-up with any terrain features and train along any southwest to northeast boundary, isolated flash flooding is possible.

REFS and HREF depicts scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon into the early evening hours.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, this upper trough will slowly move east toward the region with southwest flow aloft remaining. Overall, airmass changes very little so impacts from the storms will be similar to this afternoon's environment.

For Thursday, this weakening upper trough axis will be over the region keeping the scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms.

For Friday into next weekend, a series of jet streak/short-waves will move across the Plains states, Ohio valley, into the mid- Atlantic Region. A frontal boundary will move across the region Sunday as well. Eventually a digging upper trough over the eastern United States keep the unsettled weather conditions with more widespread showers and storms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Rain has fallen at TRI this evening, so fog seems like a good bet later tonight. The uncertainty will be if clouds hang around all night - this will decrease fog chances; clearing will increase fog chances and lower min visibility. The clearing scenario seems more likely so the TAF will have IFR predominant with LIFR in a TEMPO. Chance of fog seems too low at TYS and CHA to mention in the TAF now, as the rain avoided those terminals, but it cannot be ruled out completely if clearing occurs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 89 72 90 / 40 30 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 71 89 / 60 50 30 40 Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 70 88 / 40 60 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 86 68 87 / 40 70 40 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.