textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 204 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through Monday. A Flood watch remains in effect into tonight, but may be extended later into Monday.

- Though chances are very low, cannot rule out a strong gusty wind or two in any stronger thunderstorm.

- More typical summer weather Wednesday onwards with normal temperatures and only a low PM chance of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected the rest of today and into tonight as an upper level low rotates across the region. PWs remain high, around 2 inches, and moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected across some locations. NAM soundings also support efficient rainfall process with tall skinny CAPE profiles, and a warm layer cloud depth of over 10k feet, though 0-6km bulk shear is on the weaker side at around 15 to 20kts. Nonetheless, isolated 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts are possible for a few localized areas through this evening. If these amounts overlap with areas that have already seen flooding, additional flooding will be much quicker to occur. Areas that have seen little rainfall over the past few days can likely handle these higher end amounts with fewer problems.

Current Flood Watch goes through 2 AM EDT Monday. Currently, do not have the confidence to extend the watch. Could there be additional issues overnight, yes. However, confidence in this outcome is very low due to the expected isolated nature of remaining showers or storms. Will leave the Flood Watch as is for now.

Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected on Monday as the low remains overhead. As with today, additional flooding is possible on Monday if any heavier rains occur already saturated grounds.

We begin to dry out Monday night as the low takes a jog to our south and southwest, but additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected on Tuesday across our southern areas due to the vicinity of these areas to the upper low to our south. Drier conditions, but still with chances of some diurnal daily convection, are expected beyond Tuesday and through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through the period. Mostly VFR conditions are expected at TYS and TRI, outside of any thunderstorm passing over a terminal. MVFR ceilings are forecast to settle in overnight at CHA and persist through the end of the period. Winds should be less than 10kts, outside of any storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 83 70 84 / 60 80 60 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 82 68 85 / 80 90 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 68 83 68 86 / 80 80 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 80 64 85 / 40 60 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne- Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton- Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn- Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi- Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA- Washington VA-Wise.