textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record highs are possible.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late this afternoon into this evening. Another round of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms possible early Friday morning. Isolated storms could produce strong and gusty winds and small hail.

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm late Saturday and especially Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again next week. Low afternoon relative humidity early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

SPC meso analysis shows a well mixed boundary layer this afternoon producing breezy conditions. Instability is increasing especially over the Plateau with MLCAPEs of 500-100. DCAPEs of 800-900 with dry mid-level and sub-cloud layers will likely produce strong and gusty winds with the storms. There is a marginal risk of severe storms.

A weak wave over west TN/AR/MO will approach the region by early Friday morning. Currently strong convection has developed with this feature. Some of the CAM models show isolate to widely scattered storms moving into the area late tonight. Due to the colder air aloft with the upper trough, mid-level lapse rates steepen. There is a low end confidence of isolated storms producing hail up to one- half inch. Greatest potential north of interstate 40.

After this wave moves east early Friday, a return to dry and unseasonably warm conditions tomorrow with low afternoon relative humidity.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955) 04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

For Saturday (especially late) into Saturday night, a strong upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes into the Tennessee valley. The jet dynamics with this system will enhance the fronto-genetic forcing along this incoming cold front producing widespread showers and possible a thunderstorm. Instability ahead of this system is quite limited over the Tennessee valley. Ensemble analysis shows QPF of 0.25 to 0.40 inch with this system. Much needed rainfall but still will not too much for our ongoing drought conditions.

For much of next week, dry conditions return with a dry surface ridge producing low afternoon humidities into the 20s and 30s. Cooler temperatures for early week but quickly moderate to above normal temperatures by mid-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Main concerns through the forecast is the expected scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late today through the night especially across TRI and TYS. First round of scattered convection will develop near the Plateau counties and move east into east Tennessee. This is in response to low-level convergence into that region and approaching upper trough. Instability is limited with CAPES of 500-1000 but due to dry air aloft and below cloud base, strong and gusty winds are anticipated.

As the upper trough approaches overnight, another round of isolated showers and storms are possible mainly for TRI and TYS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 89 63 88 / 20 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 85 60 86 / 50 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 58 85 59 86 / 50 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 81 55 84 / 50 0 0 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.