textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 129 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

- Widespread showers and storms Tuesday night through Thursday morning.

- Periods of heavy rain are likely. Some flooding concerns are possible given the potential for training showers and storms on Wednesday.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists on Wednesday if surface- based instability can develop.

- Southwesterly winds will be gusty today through Wednesday especially in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf. A trough is over the northern states. Nearly zonal flow will be over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. By Tuesday night, a surface low will develop near OH/PA with a developing cold front extending southwest into Texas. Minor waves can be seen moving through the upper level pattern. This boundary will very slowly sag southward moving into Middle Tennessee and East Kentucky by Wednesday afternoon/early evening. This slow moving boundary will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday night through Wednesday night before activity tapers off on Thursday.

Southwesterly winds will be gusty ahead of this system. A Wind Advisory may be needed for the East Tennessee mountains and foothills starting Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. The 850 mb jet will increase Tuesday evening. The wind direction looks favorable for downslope wind enhancement. Gusts up to 45-50 mph will be possible in wind prone spots.

Tuesday night:

A few strong storms will be possible Tuesday night. Severe storms will develop upstream along the boundary in the evening hours. Those storms will not get to East Tennessee until the overnight hours and will have plenty of time to weaken. HRRR still shows a few strong storms possible despite low instability. Dew points will be in the 50s Tuesday night but increasing through the night as low level southerly flow increases with the low level jet strengthening. The best chance for a strong storm will be west of I-75 closer to the boundary.

Wednesday:

Deep layer southwesterly flow continues to pump moisture from the Gulf into the region. By Wednesday afternoon, Precipitable water values will reach 1.7 inches in the Tennessee Valley. Exceeding the 90th percentile which is around 1.4 inches for May 6. Multiple rounds of heavy rain may lead to some flooding issues especially along and south of I-40 where rain amounts are expected to be higher. The southern half of the region has been the hardest hit with drought conditions.

Wednesday afternoon/evening may be the best chance for strong to severe storms to develop with the cold front in good proximity and effective shear around 50 knots. Instability may be a limiting factor with cloud cover lingering all day Wednesday but with CAPE expected to be around 500 J/kg and dew points in the 60s severe storms cannot be ruled out. A low end tornado threat may be possible with 0-1 km shear expected to be near 20 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday:

At the moment, it looks like the cold front will move through the region overnight Wednesday night. The threat for severe storms and flash flooding may linger into the overnight hours but late into the night the threat will decrease as the front passes.

Showers will linger on Thursday morning as the front is still very slow to move and will likely be just south of the region. The flooding threat will be over after the front moves through with a much drier air mass moving in with dew points in the 50s. Thunder is also not expected. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave will move through the Tennessee Valley kicking the front out but kicking off another round of showers. High pressure will be centered over the region Thursday night.

Friday through Monday:

Another system is possible Sun/Mon, but looks like it will move through much faster. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Borderline LLWS at TYS/TRI to start the period was added earlier and will be allowed to continue for now. VFR conditions expected for the period. Winds will become gusty during the day especially TYS from the SW. LLWS looks borderline again tonight as surface winds subside especially CHA/TRI, and it may need to be added later but will be left out for no as confidence of it meeting criteria is currently not high.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 63 77 61 / 10 50 90 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 61 75 58 / 10 70 90 100 Oak Ridge, TN 78 60 73 56 / 20 70 100 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 58 73 56 / 10 70 100 90

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.