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KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 810 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
- Dry conditions will continue for the next several days with mild highs in the 70s and seasonally cool lows in the 40s.
- Chance of light rain on Sunday and Sunday night, mainly in the Plateau and southern TN Valley.
- A return to dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next week, then rain chances return for midweek.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
For the next few days, the pleasant fall weather will continue. A mid/upper level shortwave ridge will be crossing the region through Friday, with a low level ridge over the Appalachians. The main concern each day will be early morning fog, primarily near area lakes and rivers.
The upper ridge shifts east and a shortwave trough approaches from the west on Sunday. Moisture and lift will be mainly in the mid and upper levels, while the sub-850 mb layer remains dry for the eastern half of the area. Some light rain will likely reach the ground in the Plateau and southern TN Valley, maybe a tenth to a quarter inch, but NE sections will probably only see a trace to a couple hundredths through Sunday night. Overcast mid/high clouds on Sunday will hold high temperatures back in the 60s in most spots.
Dry and mild conditions return Monday and continue through at least Tuesday, possibly Wednesday. Another stronger system may bring higher rain chances to the area late Wednesday and Thursday. The ECMWF shows a deep, negatively tilted trough crossing the Plains and MS Valley in this time frame. One thing to keep an eye on with this system will be mountain wave winds, mainly Wednesday night.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 810 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Overall, VFR conditions and light winds will be predominant throughout the period. The main concern for brief periods of MVFR or lower conditions will come with potential for early morning fog. This looks most likely at TRI and CHA based on a persistence forecast over the last several days. For now, tempo MVFR conditions have been included, but may need to be taken down further depending on the evolution of high level cirrus overnight.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 79 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 78 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 48 78 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 76 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
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