textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 233 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Dry and seasonally mild conditions are expected to continue today and tomorrow.

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region Thursday into Thursday night. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds as the main concern. Localized flooding is also possible due to repeated rainfall.

- Drier and milder conditions return later on Friday into Saturday with another return of rain chances by later on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Currently this afternoon, quasi-zonal flow is in place aloft with surface high pressure in place across the region. The recent frontal boundary is to our south with this pattern promoting northerly flow and cooler and drier conditions. On Tuesday, troughing will deepen from the northwest with the frontal boundary gradually moving back northward through the day. High temperatures will remain seasonally cooler today and tomorrow as the upper level trough will move through the area providing zonal flow aloft. On Wednesday, this trough will move off to our east, making way for our next chance of rain on Thursday. A broad warm sector is expected across the eastern U.S. by the evening hours with an unusually strong southwesterly 850mb jet of 40 to 50 kts. This will lead to significant WAA, but overall moisture is still limited to support any rain chances except possibly in southern parts of the area. The 850mb jet could also produce near advisory-level winds over the higher terrain.

On Thursday, the surface low and broad jet will remain well to our north, but there are varying indications of a shortwave and small jet streak moving towards the area from the west. 500mb height falls and continued WAA and moisture advection will support a much more favorable thermodynamic environment for convection, in addition to lift ahead of the approaching front. Many sources are suggesting mid- level lapse rates to reach or exceed 6.5 C/km and MLCAPE reaching 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg or higher. Overall shear is certainly more limited than places to our northeast closer to the upper jet and surface low but still in the 20 to 30 kt range. While most high-res sources have yet to see into the event, the RRFS model suggests robust convection throughout the day. The environment certainly suggests potential for at least an isolated damaging wind threat. With activity likely continuing into the overnight period, repeated rainfall will lead to focus shifting more towards a localized flooding threat.

By Friday, the cold front associated with this system will move into the region, gradually decreasing rain coverage north to south. High pressure and sunshine will return over the weekend with northwesterly flow aloft through late Sunday evening. Rain chances will return to the forecast overnight on Sunday and remain throughout the day on Monday to round out the forecast period as the front is pulled back northward.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Cloud cover will continue to linger at or above 4,000 feet AGL through the evening, especially at TYS and TRI. Some ceilings are possible, but VFR is expected to prevail. Winds will be generally from the west to northwest at 10 kts or less. Overnight, fog is possible at TRI but was left out of the TAF due to limited confidence. Tomorrow, winds will be from more of a southerly direction.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 81 65 87 / 0 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 81 64 87 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 81 62 86 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 80 59 85 / 0 0 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.