textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

- Temperatures will become much colder today. More seasonable Monday. Warm-up to above normal by middle of the week until another cool-down.

- Gusty winds, especially in the higher terrain today. See Wind Advisory. Teens and single digit wind chills over the higher terrain through early Monday.

- A medium chance (30 to 50%) of a few scattered snow showers around midday into the afternoon over parts of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee today.

- Accumulating mountain snowfall event possible Wednesday into Thursday. Potential weekend system highly uncertain at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 617 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Small update to the grids to increase PoPs and adjust the weather grids for northern locales. Seems fairly likely that scattered snow showers will be transiting the northern portions of the area later today with support from the deep upper trough. Warm ground should act as an effective deterrent of any dusting of snow, so brief visibility reductions in the breezy snow showers is the only concern of note today for the lower elevations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1119 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

An initial cold front has already crossed the region. Another and much stronger front, will impact the region later this morning where temperatures will fall with time and winds will further increase out of the northwest. A pretty stout shortwave with limited moisture will follow the frontal boundary. This is what will support possible flurries across the region or a quick burst of snow under a narrow band. Only a few tenths of an inch is possible across the highest terrain of southwest Virginia and eastern Tennessee through later this evening. Although, it may be difficult for anything to stick due to days of warmth and increasing winds. The low pressure centers associated with the fronts will deepen as they exit out of the NE US, and following close behind will be strengthening high pressure from the Plains. Thus, will provide gusty conditions for much of the day today. Up to 45 mph gusts possible for the Wind Advisory designated zones, while 20 to 35 mph gusts possible elsewhere.

Monday and Tuesday will be dry under high pressure and each day will become warmer under expanding heights aloft following the shortwave.

Wednesday trends warm as well, but will feature another big pattern change that day into Thursday as a deep trough and shortwave sweep down from upper Canada. This will be something to watch, as accumulating snow will be possible across the highest terrain and maybe very light accumulation for the valley. QPF forecasts vary at the moment, and those discrepancies make all the difference in just how much snow that would translate to. Stay tuned as this forecast becomes more refined when we get closer to the middle of the week.

Thursday will be colder with drying conditions later in the day and into Friday. Uncertainty grows for the weekend with another trough and potential frontal system that may produce different p-types.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Breezy day today, with gusts upwards of 25 knots possible. Significantly colder airmass will support scattered snow showers across the northeastern portions of the area, with KTRI having the best shot of seeing a snow shower or two later today. Brief reductions in visibility will accompany the snow showers. Winds will drop off this evening as a surface inversion forms and should remain light into the night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 27 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 23 47 28 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 38 24 47 27 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 20 44 24 / 40 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.