textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday, along with another day of low afternoon relative humidity.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday night into Saturday. Severe weather does not seem likely.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated early next week, with at least some potential for some strong to severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Calm, clear, and mild tonight with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. With high pressured centered over the region, Friday temps will be continue to be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Most areas stay dry but some isolated diurnal convection is possible across the east TN mountains and Cumberland Plateau during the afternoon hours.

Friday night into Saturday, precip chances sharply on the rise as a shortwave and frontal boundary approach and move through the area. Most areas should see some rainfall at some point during this timeframe. Average QPF amounts will likely range between 0.25 and 0.75 inches. Some low-end/moderate instability is expected but with very weak shear in place, do not anticipate any severe weather at this time. With the rain and clouds around, temps will be cooler and in the mid 70s for most places. Rain and storms exit east Saturday night as the short wave pushes east into the Carolinas.

A short stint of high pressure returns Saturday night into Sunday ahead of our next system. This should keep us mostly dry on Sunday with temps climbing back into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Most models try and hold on to ridging for Monday, which would keep us mostly dry and still unseasonably warm. By Monday night/Tuesday morning however, rain and storms are likely to move in just ahead of a cold front. The timing isn't overly conducive to severe weather but there is a low-end risk in place at the moment. Looking at LREF joint probabilities of at least 500 J/kg CAPE and 30 kts of bulk shear, 40 to 60% probs are in place across the Cumberland Plateau. These probs quickly diminish as you go east into the central valley. Higher probs exist further west, closer to Nashville. This aligns well with SPC day 5 outlook where the eastern edge of the 15% risk area stops in middle TN. We will continue to keep an eye on things, as a shift in timing will increase/decrease our threat. Aside from any severe weather, mountain winds look gusty as the 850mb winds ramp up to around 30 to 40 kts ahead of the front. Wind gusts in the mountains could be as high as 40 mph. With the prior rain on Saturday, and additional rain Monday night/Tuesday, these high winds shouldn't be of too much of a concern fire weather-wise.

The rest of the period will remain unsettled with mostly zonal flow in place behind the cold front. This zonal flow will keep the door open for additional systems to move into our area from the west.

With several systems set to move thorugh our area over the next 7 days, probs of at least 1" of rainfall are quite high for most areas at around 80 to 90%. Probs of at least 1" are a little lower though across northeast TN and southwest VA, at around 50 to 70% chance.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light southerly to southwesterly winds, generally less than 10kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 85 63 80 / 0 10 70 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 83 60 76 / 0 20 60 90 Oak Ridge, TN 54 83 60 76 / 0 20 70 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 80 56 72 / 0 10 30 90

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.