textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 229 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Heat to continue into the weekend before subsiding next week. Continue to take precautions, find shade, and drink plenty of water.

- Low to medium chances for thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening. Low probability that storms will interfere with Independence celebrations.

- Continued diurnal storm activity combined with regular summer heat next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Dominant ridge is beginning the process of weakening this morning and will continue to subside into the background heights of summer. This will allow temperatures to subside heading into next week. We have a last parting shot of high heat this weekend, coinciding with Independence Day festivities. General reminder, drink plenty of fluids while partaking in outdoor activities.

Not very confident in storm chances this evening, of the top two convective CAMs, RRFS (in this weather office we pronounce it Rufus) has an isolated storm or two potential. Meanwhile the 00z HRRR spawns storms in the foothills in the evening and then brings them north across the valley heading into the night. This would be a low probability, unfortunate for outdoor fireworks scenario. Again, a few scattered storms are possible, including during the main festivities hours, but not confident either direction on what will happen. Model sounding profiles generally depict thinner CAPE with slightly less DCAPE than we had the last couple of days, so as a consequence any storms will still possess the ability for small hail, gusty winds, and of course lightning, but I don't think to the extent we just saw.

Heading into next week, we generally have a diurnal summer storm pattern. The upper ridge that was suppressing storms for a time is no longer present, but we still have supportive atmospheric moisture to allow storms to fire. Early next week guidance also has a weak upper trough passing through the Great Lakes that extends down into the Ohio River valley, this should help daily convection chances. The good news is daily max temperatures will return to regular summer levels. The bad news is there's no true cooldown and for those with outdoor plans, no easy planning around the random storm chances next week. The mid-range EC-AI guidance suggests drier weather for Wednesday and Thursday with very low storm chances, this would make sense with GFS/Euro depictions of building heights as the early week trough departs the East Coast, so perhaps a few dry days in store for much of the area by midweek.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Showers and storms have diminished overnight with the main concern being fog development, most likely at CHA in the morning hours. Reductions to MVFR or IFR can be expected. Throughout the day, mostly clear conditions are expected with fairly light winds. Showers and storms are likely again but much later in the day than yesterday. The most likely time for impact will be from about 22Z to 04Z with PROB30s maintained.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 96 75 95 74 / 10 20 60 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 73 93 73 / 10 50 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 94 73 93 72 / 10 40 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 95 70 93 69 / 10 30 60 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.