textproduct: Morristown

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Currently, the region is in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft with troughing to our east. Another shortwave/low pressure system is moving across the northern extent of the Great Lakes region with high pressure receding to our south. The increase in MSLP gradient and broad southwesterly 850mb flow. This will lead to increasingly breezy conditions across the region with high pressure promoting subsidence and low afternoon RH's. By this evening into the overnight period, the 40 to 50 kt 850mb jet will be to our west with a tightening MSLP gradient. This will make for continued breezy conditions overnight, especially across the higher elevations closer to the 850mb level. While downsloping is not expected in this setup, synoptic flow of over 40 kts will be more than sufficient for gusts near to above 40 mph across the higher elevations. Based on the high- res data, there is reasonably high confidence for a Wind Advisory in the Smokies starting late this evening. On Wednesday, the flow will become more westerly with increasing moisture arriving from the southwest. This will lead to a return of precipitation chances, especially later in the day. The thermal profile suggests temperatures to be above freezing near and below 850mb, keeping precipitation as all rain. The profile will also be cool enough to keep instability to our south. Ultimately, Wednesday night through Thursday will provide some much needed rain to the region with the ongoing drought. With the expected moisture and duration of rainfall, most places are likely to see between 1 and 2 inches.

By Friday, drier weather will return as high pressure builds back in from the north and west. A similar overall pattern will continue through the weekend as high pressure remains in control. Height rises will help temperatures rise back well into the 60s with some lower 70s in southern portions of the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Overall, the main aviation impact will be southwesterly lower level winds later this afternoon all the way until Wednesday. Today, winds will become increasingly breezy at the ground level, especially at TYS. By the overnight period, LLWS is expected at CHA and TRI due to fairly light surface winds and wind magnitudes of 45 kts or greater near or above 2,000 feet AGL. LLWS was not included for TYS as surface winds will remain gusty through the night. During the day on Wednesday, breezy surface winds are expected area-wide, leading to a loss of LLWS. VFR conditions will remain regardless.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 60 51 66 / 0 20 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 55 47 61 / 10 40 90 80 Oak Ridge, TN 38 55 47 60 / 10 40 90 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 51 42 56 / 20 40 80 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.