textproduct: Morristown
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 121 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026 - Mostly dry conditions through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms possible at times Thursday evening through Saturday.
- Above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026
An anomalous upper level ridge continues to build into the region this afternoon. H5 heights near 595 dam will translate to above normal temperatures - about 5 degrees above normal per early September standards. Surface high pressure will keep the area mostly dry, though a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out in the high terrain. This pattern will continue into Wednesday.
By Thursday an upper level trough and associated jet is expected to dip into the Great Lakes region. An accompanying cold front will provide an axis of forcing leading to a return of shower and storm chances by Thursday evening and night. Chances for precip will generally be greatest north of I-40 during this time.
While the aforementioned jet will depart east, additional impulses and associated vorticity maxima will swing through the southern Appalachians Friday and Saturday, all while the frontal boundary lingers across the region. This will maintain daily chances for showers and storms. Per latest RRFS and NAM12, may have to keep an eye on Friday for a low potential of isolated strong storms. Latest soundings from these models suggest MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, effective shear near 20kts, and mid-level lapse rates near 6.
A transition to quasi-zonal flow is expected Sunday. While not totally dry, a lesser coverage of precip chances is expected. This will continue to be the case into the new work week as additional shortwave ridging builds atop the southern Appalachians.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Main concern is the potential of fog development at TRI. Steam fog off Boone Lake is possible. Confidence is too low to include but will monitor for possible development. VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Ridging surface and aloft will keep conditions dry.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 69 95 71 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 90 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 63 86 66 / 0 0 0 30
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.