textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 237 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Very warm through Saturday. Cold front late weekend will bring cooler temperatures early next week.

- Chances for showers and storms will increase Wednesday through Saturday, mainly in the afternoon with greater coverage across the higher elevations. More widespread showers expected late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures with frost possible Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The upper level pattern for much of the week will be characterized by upper ridging across the southeast United States with a series of short-waves exiting into the Plains states into the Great Lakes. Surface ridging into the Carolinas and far southeast United States will keep deep moisture from moving north into the east Tennessee valley and southern Appalachains with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s.

However, HREF and deterministic models do show enough instability increase to produce mainly diurnal convection especially across the higher elevations for Wednesday through Saturday. Isolated strong storm is possible but shear and instability not strong enough for organized thunderstorm development.

Upper ridging will produce unseasonably warm conditions over the region with highs 15 to almost 20 degrees above normal. At this time, record temperatures are not anticipated.

For late Saturday into Sunday morning, a deeper short-wave will move across the Great Lakes/Ohio valley. Upper level jet will extend far enough south to put the area under the favored right entrance region of the jet. Broad divergence is noted which will enhance the frontal- genetic forcing along an incoming front. A line of convection is expected late Saturday night/Sunday morning.

LREF and deterministic models show very limited instability and mainly elevated. Embedded thunderstorms are possible but limited instability and effective shear will keep potential of severe storms low.

For Monday and Tuesday of next week, dry northwest flow and surface ridging will produce dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures. Some frost development is possible Monday and Tuesday mornings.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Main forecast concern is the chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm Wednesday. Greatest coverage will likely be during the afternoon hours.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with southerly winds of 7 to 15 knots with gusts in excess of 20 knots

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 83 61 84 / 10 30 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 82 61 84 / 10 40 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 60 82 59 84 / 10 40 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 80 56 82 / 10 40 20 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.