textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Accumulating snow is likely across the higher elevations, with low chances (less than 20 percent) for the valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Significant snow accumulations will be possible mainly across the higher terrain.

- Additional snow showers will be possible this weekend, especially over the higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The main concern for the next several days is the potential for snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Thus the discussion will largely focus on that.

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue today as high pressure slowly moves off to the east. Could see some gusty winds in the central valley as pressure gradients strengthen in response to low pressure developing over the Great Lakes, but that's about it.

By Wednesday, an upper trough will be digging southeastward across the upper midwest, with another southern stream shortwave ejecting eastward from southern Texas along the Gulf Coast. A strong upper jet diving southeast on the back side will amplify the trough over the central and southern Appalachians by Wednesday morning, pushing a cold front through the region by that afternoon, allowing much colder air to filter into the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday.

Trends continue to show little in the way of notable snow accumulation in the valley this evening. Both the NBM and HREF probabilistic data show between a 10-15 percent chance of seeing an inch of snow Wednesday night into Thursday anywhere in the central and northern TN valley. Intuitively this makes sense as the main forcing with the front will be during the afternoon and early evening hours. By the time the thermal profiles are really supportive of low elevation snow, we'll have mostly lost the upper forcing and will be rapidly losing saturation into the DGZ. Higher confidence exists for accumulating snowfall in the mountains though. A northwest flow regime will be in full swing by Wed evening, and this should last into mid-Thu morning, producing several hours of orographically forced snow showers in the mountains. Moisture profiles are expectedly shallow Wed night, but one could argue the profiles support some saturation into the DGZ given how cold they become late Wed night. As such, wouldn't be surprised to see some periods of decent snowfall rates in the mountains. The current forecast shows some 4-6" totals in the Smokies with 2-3" totals elsewhere in the east TN mountains and higher terrain of SW Virginia. Will need to keep an eye on any lingering connection to western Great Lakes moisture as that could increase snowfall totals, but for now this seems very reasonable given recent trends in guidance. Travel impacts will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday especially over the higher terrain areas of SW VA, the Plateau, and the E TN mountains, and advisories may be required. We're a little too far out to issue anything at this time however.

A few flurries may linger into Thursday night especially northeast and mountains, but by Friday we will be between systems with a dry but cold day across the area.

For the weekend, models are in general agreement that we will see additional short wave energy moving in and reinforcing the upper trough over the region. The details are still very uncertain, but additional light precipitation is possible which thermal profiles suggest would likely be in the form of snow showers. Monday looks to be mainly dry but cold.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR TAFs to continue with dry weather through the period. A few high clouds will be gradually on the increase through the period. Though the mixing layer is shallow during the day, a few gusts are likely at TYS, less so at TRI, and not expected at CHA. Winds may remain around 10 knots past sunset at TYS despite a surface inversion.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 38 52 24 / 0 0 70 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 38 49 21 / 0 10 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 54 36 47 21 / 0 10 90 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 33 47 19 / 0 10 80 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.