textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Mostly dry weekend, with increasing rain chances associated with a cold front late Sunday into Monday. Not expecting strong or even severe storms.

- Another potential frontal passage brings a chance of rain around mid to late next week.

- Possible patchy frost for parts of the higher terrain and southwest Virginia Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

The forecast period through next week can be characterized by longwave troughing dominating the east and ridging locked to the west. Towards the end of the forecast period though, synoptics appear to change with ridging moving back in from the west. Just outside of the forecast period, temperatures potentially warming above normal at the beginning of next weekend. For the forecast period, our area will generally exhibit quasizonal to northwesterly flow. It'll be mostly dry today with a very low outside chance of a shower for the southern CWA this morning and SW Virginia this afternoon.

After a brief recovery of temperatures expected this weekend, a cold front will barrel through sometime early Monday. This looks like just a low-end rainfall with maybe a quarter of an inch, at best. QPF trends have turned downward. Some may not even see rainfall at all. The only real thing going for this system will be the bulk shear in place, everything else is either too weak or non-existent for any strong to severe storm potential. We won't really get much moisture return before the arrival of the system and the timing doesn't really allow anything surface based. The area with the best chance of thunder will be the southern plateau and valley, closer to the better dynamics, as depicted by the SPC Outlook.

Temperatures markedly cooler Monday into Tuesday morning. Parts of the higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians and SW Virginia may see possible frost Tuesday morning, where temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 30s so far. An element that may work against it will be winds possibly still coming down from somewhat breezy northerly winds earlier in the day Monday.

Much of the rest of the week will be dry with temperatures warming Tuesday and afterward. Although, a low pressure center under a shortwave trough traversing from central Canada, may bring some light rain to northern portions of the area around mid to late week. Dry after with northwesterly flow and a ridge on our doorstep from the west.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Clouds at CHA will be near the MVFR/VFR margins this morning, but are expected to lift/scatter by the afternoon. Some broken VFR cigs will be around TYS and TRI today, with winds around 10 kt. Mostly clear conditions and light/calm winds will return tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 57 84 60 / 0 0 10 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 50 Oak Ridge, TN 78 53 82 56 / 10 0 0 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 50 79 53 / 0 0 0 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.