textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 706 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Dry and warmer conditions are expected today with light rain moving in by early evening. A transition to snow is expected, especially in southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee mountains where light accumulations are likely.

- Dry weather will return on Saturday with very cold temperatures expected Sunday night into early next week.

- A gradual warming trend will follow mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Cloud cover has largely diminished behind an upper level shortwave lifting northeast along the New England coastline this afternoon. Dry conditions and breezy winds will continue in wake through much of the afternoon and evening.

A second shortwave currently diving out of Canada towards the Mississippi River Valley will enhance upper level divergence over the southern and central Appalachians tonight. A surface low trekking through the northern Great Lakes will drive a cold front through the forecast area overnight, bringing increasing chances of precipitation. Rain chances ramp up for the Cumberland Plateau between 8 and 10pm, gradually working eastward and eventually departing the area around or just shortly after sunrise.

This will be a cold rain for most valley locations. However, near freezing temperatures will lead to light snow accumulations in far northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia, as well as the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains. Based on NAMBufr soundings, there could be a brief period of saturation within the DGZ(through roughly -16C)around 6-10Z. That is the most likely time for a quick 1 to 2 inches to occur, particularly on higher ridges and mountains peaks across the East Tennessee Mountains and southwest Virginia. Some light totals one-half inch or less cannot be ruled out in far Northeast Tennessee but temperatures will be even more borderline in these areas. Will be covering this with an SPS for the time being, but the timing of the event will allow for the next forecast package to reevaluate if hi-rez models want to show any sort of cooling trends with temperatures.

Additionally, a strengthening swly LLJ is expected this evening into the overnight. While the surface low is well to our north, a 4 to 6 mb pressure gradient is expected between Asheville and Sevierville due to CAD on the eastern side of the mountains. Soundings also depict an inversion near or just above 850mb. For this reason, a brief period of weak mountain wave enhanced winds is expected across our southern portions of the East Tennessee mountains and immediate foothills. RRFS probabilities of wind gusts greater than 40mph increase to near 90% as the LLJ peaks around 55-60kts. A Wind Advisory has been introduced from the Monroe to Greene County mountain zones from 6pm to 5am.

While a few light flurries cannot be ruled out Saturday night, a quieter weather pattern is largely expected Saturday night through the middle of next week. The main focus will be on below normal temperatures as a broad upper level trough remains seated over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. High temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees Sunday through Tuesday before a gradual warming trend returns mid-week. Monday night looks to be the coldest period, when wind chills may also become sub-zero in the high elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and southwest Virginia. Next chances of precipitation do not return to the area until late next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 706 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Cold front expected to move through overnight with precipitation chances increasing. RASN mix at TRI, but rain elsewhere. CIG will fall to IFR and possibly LIFR. LLWS denoted at all sites for the overnight hours. Conditions improve during the day Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 37 49 25 39 / 90 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 37 47 23 35 / 90 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 35 46 22 35 / 90 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 30 44 22 31 / 70 30 20 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for Blount Smoky Mountains- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe.

VA...NONE.