textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 127 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Dry weather is expected through Friday with daytime highs rising well into the 70s and 80s.

- Tropical development is expected in the Gulf, leading to a return of rain and potential mountain winds this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Currently, troughing is centered to our east with a jet stream to our south. Surface high pressure is also centered just to our east. Tropical Depression 9 is also just east of Mexico. This will continue to promote dry and seasonally cool temperatures into the morning. Temperatures will warm well into the 70s to low 80s through the day as eastward progression of high pressure increases southerly flow. Based on the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast, T.D. 9 is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaias and track northeast into the central Gulf through the day. By Thursday, height rises are expected as troughing lifts to the northeast, promoting even warmer temperatures well into the 80s. It is during this time, hurricane strength is forecast by the NHC and model guidance, along with a more northerly shift in the track. Heading into Friday, hurricane strength is still anticipated with a landfall near or east of New Orleans by Friday night. With the upper jet remaining just to the north, increasing shear has been noted, adding to weakening but an increase in track speed. Locally, warm and dry conditions will remain with a shift to northeasterly winds for Friday.

The weekend will be when our region sees impacts from the remnants of the tropical system as a track to our west is forecast on Saturday. At this time range, there is still considerable uncertainty in the track and degree of weakening due to shear. However, the most likely impact in our area will be the first potential mountain wave event of the season. With high pressure to our northeast, a strong MSLP gradient is likely, along with strong southeasterly 850mb winds. While rain is expected with this system, a track of this nature would certainly limit totals while potentially producing warning-level winds in the mountains and foothills Saturday night. It should be noted that some guidance forecast a more easterly and/or weaker track, which would limit mountain wave potential. Regardless, rainfall chances and overall impacts will decrease by Sunday into early next week as the remnants dissipate and move away from the region. Based on current trends, similar messaging will be maintained in the HWO.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A fairly straightforward TAF period. VFR conditions are expected throughout. A few low stratus and very patchy & thin fog may develop close to daybreak, but I do not anticipate any impacts to the terminals. Winds remain light and variable going nearly calm overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.