textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 708 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Remaining rain to gradually lessen through this evening.

- Dry weather trend beginning tomorrow and lasting most of the coming week ahead.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Rain should lessen with time across the southernmost counties, with light mist, sprinkles, or low clouds possible for much of the area until a significantly drier airmass pushes through overnight tonight from the north. This will conclude this beneficial bout of rain. Patchy fog tonight is possible before lower dewpoints arrive from the north.

For the bulk of the work week we'll be in a benign regime, with the stronger polar jet to our north and an uninterested and weaker subtropical jet to our south. Airmass across the region will remain pleasantly warm, so daytime afternoon temperatures will remain near 80F, or slight above that late week. Low temperatures will return back to the mid to low 50s with the disappearance of the low clouds. Dry weather will dominate the week with no forcing mechanism for precipitation and PWAT values beginning rather dry before moderating closer to median percentiles.

Most likely the next best chance of rain holds off until the weekend. Euro and GFS both depict a decently strong shortwave in the subtropical jet arriving next weekend, with their ensemble means starting to cluster in that direction. Interestingly the EC-AI ensemble has not moved in this direction yet, so confidence can only be described as low to medium at this time range. Still, this system would bear watching as the models' orientation and strength of the 850 wind field both would indicate another shot of healthy rainfall plus maybe the first wind event of the season.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 708 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Cigs will be variable between VFR and MVFR for the next few hours, then settle into MVFR for most of the night. A front moving in from the north in the morning will cause cigs to lift and scatter, and increase N-NE winds to near 10 kt.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 82 56 83 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 80 53 81 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 79 52 79 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 75 46 77 / 10 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.