textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 149 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

- A warming trend with very warm conditions Sunday through early next week. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms arrives by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Main weather feature for Friday into early next week will be a building upper ridge over the southeast United States.

For Friday and Saturday, surface ridging over the southeast United and southern Appalachians will keep moisture return limited. The dry airmass and warmer temperatures will produce low afternoon relative humidity in the 20s and lower 30s today and 30s for Saturday.

For Sunday, surface ridging weakens allowing for return of some boundary layer moisture into the southern Appalachians. Deterministic GFS is quite bullish for diurnal terrain convection but ensembles say differently. Given the drought conditions, low confidence of convection returning and will follow the drier ensemble solutions.

For Monday and Tuesday, upper ridge builds more into the southern Appalachians helping to suppress convective development and producing unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

For Wednesday and Thursday, a good deal of uncertainty as upper ridge weakens due to a series of short-waves/jet streaks moving across the mid-section of the nation into the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. A frontal boundary will move into the Tennessee valley. Some of the models keep this boundary over the area maintaining a continued chance of convection, while the ECMWF shows the front moving south of the area by Thursday. Ensembles keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms going for mid to late week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 149 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Potentially some fog early this morning near KTRI, with current observations very close to saturation already. Uncertain on fog formation though, so left it as a MVFR TEMPO and will metwatch. Otherwise VFR TAFs with generally light winds underneath high pressure.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 55 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 54 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 78 53 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 50 82 57 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.