textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 139 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Dry and seasonally mild conditions are expected to continue today.

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region Thursday into Thursday night. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds as the main concern. Localized flooding is also possible due to repeated rainfall.

- Drier and milder conditions return later on Friday into Saturday with another return of rain chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Another dry one can be anticipated today with similar temperatures to yesterday, although humidity will be on the rise again. Perhaps a stray shower in the Southern Appalachians. A further increase in temperatures and dew points tomorrow with another possible dry day, but with moisture on the rise, the southern tier of the CWA could see isolated to scattered activity.

Attention turns to Thursday into Friday, when an approaching cold front from the northwest potentially clashes with tropical moisture coming up from the south. Day 4 SPC, which will become Day 3 after this discussion's issuance, does place some of our southwest VA counties in a slight risk of severe weather. Shear may be "better" compared to recent events where deep layer shear was almost non- existent. PWATs will also rise, which will increase the flooding potential. This will certainly be something to watch with Day 4 and 5 ERO from WPC covering the area in a SLGT. Prior to, an increasing LLJ Wednesday into Thursday may bring elevated winds to the Smokies. Gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory may need considered.

Precipitation chances decrease from northwest to southeast as the day goes on Friday. Temperatures will trend cooler again Friday into Saturday. Brief high pressure will dominate a part of the weekend with chances for precipitation increasing later Sunday. Chances then continue to persist through Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions likely to continue for the bulk of the TAF period. Low chance that MVFR CIGs creep into KCHA post 03z tonight. Dry weather. Afternoon southwesterly winds may gust 15 to 20 knots across the northern two-thirds of the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 65 87 73 / 10 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 64 87 72 / 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 86 72 / 0 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 59 85 66 / 0 10 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.