textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Strong gusty winds this afternoon will subside later today into tonight.

- NW flow snow event expected later today through early Thursday with accumulating snow mainly over parts of the E TN mountains and higher terrain of southwest Virgina.

- Low chances of precipitation across the north Friday night into Saturday.

- Stronger surge of cold air will arrive for Sunday into Monday. Lows in the teens with some higher elevation single digits expected Monday morning. Lower wind chills will add to the cold.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

The strong gusty winds that are ongoing over our area ahead of an approaching cold front will subside later this afternoon into tonight after the front exits to our east. Winds have already gusted over 50 at Cove Mountain, and we have seen gusts to around 40 at the TYS airport. The wind advisory will be allowed to continue as it is for now.

While moisture is limited, we will see some rain showers around the time of the frontal passage, then as much colder air pushes in we will see a rapid changeover to snow showers over the higher terrain, and the valleys will likely see some snow showers and/or snow flurries as well overnight. The normally favored orographic lift areas of the mountains will see accumulating snow in the northwest flow and cold advection overnight into Thursday, with amounts of 1 to 3 inches likely in many of these upslope higher elevation locations especially at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher amounts may occur in a few of the highest mountain peaks. The winter weather advisory for parts of SW VA and the E TN mountains will be continued as is. A few locations across the northern half of the TN valley may see some light accumulations of less than an inch, but most valley areas are expected to see no accumulation or just a dusting.

Following the snow's exit Thursday, a short-lived cool-down can be expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing clouds. However, a weak system will bring increased chances for precipitation to northern parts of the area late Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising which will bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday.

Models generally agree on a stronger cold front moving through Saturday night followed by an area of cold high pressure with its origins in Alaska and Western Canada. Current ensemble data suggests little precipitation, but much colder air will move in behind the front for Sunday and Monday. Monday morning lows are currently forecast to be in the teens across the majority of the valley and Plateau with some single digits for the highest elevations of the mountains and parts of southwest Virginia. It currently appears winds will be on the decline once we get later in the night Sunday into Monday, which is good news and may suppress what could be much worse wind chills. High pressure will eventually shift eastward but will keep us dry through at least early Tuesday.

Another system may approach by Wednesday, so Pops will tick up once again by the end of the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Gusty winds this afternoon will gradually diminish later in the period. We will see some rain and snow showers around especially TRI and TYS, with TRI the most likely to see visibility impacts. In addition, cigs will dip to MVFR levels at TYS and TRI for much of the overnight into early Thursday time frame, but should rise back to VFR before the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 46 30 58 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 41 31 54 / 30 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 29 41 30 54 / 20 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 35 26 46 / 70 20 30 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Anderson- Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins- Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Roane-Scott TN-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Lee-Russell- Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Russell- Washington VA-Wise.