textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong/severe storm possible mainly Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Main threat will be strong and gusty winds.

- Windy conditions for the far east Tennessee mountains/foothills tonight/early Tuesday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph possible.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday into Wednesday. Potential of strong to severe storms but timing, intensity, and extent of the severe thunderstorms remain low.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Currently, a wedge of high pressure across the eastern seaboard is slowly pulling drier low-level moisture into east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, southwest North Carolina. Latest HREF/HRRR model shows dewpoints dropping into the 40s to lower 50s this evening with some upper 30s possible over southwest Virginia.

This wedging will east of the Appalachians and low pressure over the mid-west/upper Ohio valley will produce fairly tight pressure gradients overnight. As the low-level inversion estabilishes itself this evening. HREF and HRRR shows mountain wave winds developing with southeast winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph possible. A wind advisory has been issued.

Upper divergence will move across the region with strong convection over the mid-west/western Ohio valley moving east southeast into the Tennessee valley overnight/early Tuesday morning. This line of convection will weaken as it moves into the more stable airmass over the area. However, mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 degrees C will produce elevated instability allowing for the threat of strong to severe storms over the Plateau and southeast Tennessee early Tuesday morning. Main concern will be damaging winds and small hail.

For Tuesday, post short-wave subsidence and developing mid-level cap will limit convection much of the day. Morning clouds will give way to more sun in the afternoon.

For Tuesday night, a stronger short-wave and upper jet will produce good synoptic forcing. Depending on how the airmass can destabilize ahead of the next system and return flow of southerly winds, a great threat of severe storms is expected especially for the Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Main concern will be damaging winds and large hail.

For Wednesday, there is another potential of severe storms as frontal boundary will be across the region during the day. Depending on how much breaks in the clouds, ensembles and latest deterministic runs show mid-level lapses rates of 7+ degree/C, decent hail growth CAPE, and effective bulk shear of 40-50 knots to produce strong/severe storms. Shear and Instability show the greatest potential of organized severe storms, but confidence remains low of the intensity and extent of the thunderstorms but will monitor closely.

For Thursday and part of Friday, surface ridging will produce drier conditions.

For the later half of Friday through Saturday, ensembles and deterministic models are becoming in better agreement with a southern stream wave moving across the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee valley. Strong jet dynamics will produce widespread/much needed rainfall across the southeast United States, possibly into the Tennessee valley/southern Appalachians as well. Surface low will move well south of the region with little to no instability. Expect mainly shower activity.

Surface ridging and drier conditions for Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Main Aviation Forecast concern is the expected showers and thunderstorms for early Tuesday morning. Some of these storms could produce strong and gusty winds. Otherwise, as the line of convection moves across the region ceiling will drop to marginal MVFR conditions from 10-16Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 77 64 80 / 60 60 100 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 76 61 76 / 60 60 90 100 Oak Ridge, TN 57 75 60 76 / 70 60 90 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 73 58 71 / 60 70 80 100

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.