textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 742 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Relative humidities will improve today helping to lower fire concerns.

- Light rain returns late Friday, generally for locations along and north of I-40.

- General drought conditions continue next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A pattern shift will unfold over the next several days, beginning with warm conditions and transitioning into a cooler, more unsettled stretch through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to rebound to above-normal levels again by the middle of next week.

Overnight tonight, a strong midlevel ridge centered over the southern Plains will continue to expand eastward. As this ridge builds across the Tennessee Valley through Friday, rising heights aloft will support well above average temperatures, with some locations potentially reaching the mid 80s.

At lower levels, a lingering ridge over the Carolinas will keep the region dry with low RH values. A strengthening westerly low level jet late Thursday will begin to draw in modest moisture ahead of an approaching shortwave, though overall moisture return remains limited.

By Friday night into Saturday, the broader pattern becomes more dynamic as a cold front tied to an upper low over the northern U.S. pushes into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Guidance continues to show this system weakening as it drops southward, largely due to diminishing upper support and only marginal Gulf moisture. Even so, model soundings point to enough low level instability to support scattered showers, mainly north of Interstate 40. Behind the front, a surge of cooler Canadian air and increasing northwest winds will settle in for the weekend, bringing temperatures back down to more seasonable levels by Sunday.

Ahead of the front on Friday, the combination of anomalous warmth and afternoon humidity dipping below 30 percent will elevate fire danger, especially across the southern Tennessee Valley and the drought affected higher terrain of western North Carolina. After frontal passage, gusty northwest winds potentially reaching 20-30 mph in the Smokys and parts of southwest Virginia will be the main issue on Saturday. Rainfall amounts look light overall, with ensemble averages generally under a tenth of an inch. A return to near-normal temperatures is expected by midweek as the ridge influence weakens once again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 742 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Dry through the period with VFR expected. Varying CIG height. Ridging moving in aloft from the SW and a SE sfc high, will bring increased SWly flow to the terminals later this morning and into the early evening. Gusts between 20 and 25KT possible, with TYS favored for the highest gusts in SWly flow. Sustained and gusts subside some tonight, but will remain elevated overnight into Friday. Strengthening LLJ overnight may bring LLWS to TRI.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 60 84 41 / 0 0 30 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 62 79 37 / 0 0 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 80 60 79 36 / 0 0 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 59 74 33 / 10 0 80 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.