textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Accumulating snow is likely Friday afternoon through Saturday across much of the area with the greatest chance for heavy accumulations in the eastern half of the area.

- Arctic cold will return Friday night and continue through the weekend.

- A slow warming trend will follow next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

We remain under broad mid/upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS, and a weak short wave and surface low are moving across the south/central Great Plains. This surface low will move across the Gulf States and remain weak through Firday, but a weak inverted trough will intrude into our area as the weak short wave moves across, and some light snow will likely begin over at least northern areas during the day.

By Friday night into Saturday, a strong upper low will be diving southeast out of the northern Plains and western Great Lakes region, tracking over our area and then lifting off to our east and northeast. The weak surface low will move into the Atlantic then rapidly strengthen and move to the northeast off shore. The exact details are still uncertain and will matter for the amounts, but we will see snow across the area Friday night into Saturday with the heaviest amounts likely to be over our northeastern half. Confidence in a heavy snow event is high enough to go with a winter storm warning for our eastern half. Will have a winter weather advisory elsewhere with the exception of our far southwest counties where confidence in significant accumulations is still lower. Precipitation types are not in question, as it will be cold enough for all snow. Given how cold it will be, any snow that falls will accumulate and even minor accumulations will cause slippery road conditions. In addition, there will be some blowing of snow especially over the higher mountains as winds will be gusty from the north and northwest.

The other story for the weekend will be the cold. Another surge of arctic air will rush in on the north and northwest winds, and high temperatures Saturday will struggle to get above the lower 20s even in the valleys. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the single digits in most areas. Wind chill values will dip to near or below zero at times in the valley with well below zero values at times in the higher terrain as well Friday night through Saturday night. Sunday will likely see temperatures remaining below freezing for nearly all of the area, and Sunday night will to be very cold as well. Have issued an extreme cold watch for the E TN mountains and a cold weather advisory elsewhere.

Early in the week heights will begin to rise and we will begin a moderating trend. It will still be rather cold Monday, especially in areas whith snow cover. By Tuesday through Thursday high temperatures will likely climb to near, or into, the 40s across most valley locations. Models are not in great agreement that far out, but generally indicate another short wave affecting the area during the mid week time frame, and current thermal profiles sugggest much of any precipitation that falls would likely be rain.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. There will be an increasing chance of snow toward the end of the TAF period mainly at TRI. Ceilings will gradually lower to 6-9kft by 18Z Friday.

Weak pressure gradient will keep winds light through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 44 18 25 / 0 10 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 25 38 17 22 / 0 40 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 25 38 16 22 / 0 40 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 22 33 15 20 / 10 70 90 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for Cherokee-Clay.

Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for East Polk.

Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Saturday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan- North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN- Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for Anderson-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Loudon-McMinn- Morgan-Northwest Monroe-Roane-Scott TN-Union-West Polk.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger- Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-North Sevier- Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Washington TN.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM EST Sunday for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.