textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Winter Weather Advisories continue for light snow/sleet accumulations in SW VA and NE TN mountains.

- Drying aloft should end measurable precip a little after sunrise, but drizzle may linger until noon.

- Dry Saturday, rain returns Sunday with a possible transition to snow in northern sections Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overall, the previous forecast is handling the situation pretty well, considering the mix p-types across the area. Sleet has been more prevalent than models projected, but the placement of the Advisory has been nicely aligned with the rain-sleet-snow transition area based on reports we have been receiving. Radar is showing precip coverage being more scattered in western sections as dry air aloft builds in and cuts off the dendrite growth potential. Parts of SW VA may continue to see several more hours of snow/sleet with some additional light accumulations of ~1 inch in Wise and Russell counties where surface temps have been near to below freezing, possibly up to 2 in higher elevations like High Knob, so the Winter Weather Advisory will continue. The Plateau counties will likely be able to be canceled before the 12Z end time, and additional accumulations there should not be very significant. Low level moisture will remain in place through most of the day, with a slow, gradual scouring from the top down, suggesting a light drizzle may linger into the early afternoon.

A westerly flow aloft and surface high pressure keeps dry conditions in place Saturday. Another disturbance brings a chance of rain back into the forecast on Sunday. There could be some wintry precip Sunday night as cold advection sets in, but confidence is low on the depth of moisture available and the timing of the cold air arrival with adequate moisture to produce any measurable snowfall.

Broad troughing over the eastern Conus will persist through the rest of the forecast period, with some disturbances moving across our area, but with limited moisture. A potential stronger shortwave may bring better precip chances in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overall, poor aviation conditions are expected to continue with all sites reporting IFR to LIFR as rain. TRI is most likely to have at least some periods of MVFR this morning with CHA and TYS staying down as rain exits the area. CHA and TYS are then expected to improve to low-end MVFR by the afternoon with TRI then becoming more IFR than the others. Overnight tonight, further reductions to IFR or LIFR are increasingly likely but were left out of the TAF for the time being. Winds will be light and variable at all sites through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 37 51 35 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 37 49 32 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 35 48 32 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 36 45 29 / 40 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Anderson- Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter- Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan-Unicoi.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Johnson.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.