textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 619 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Dry and colder weather continues through much of today.

- A system will bring a return of rain chances and gusty winds for the mountains and foothills tonight into Sunday. Higher elevation areas may see a brief wintry mix early Sunday and again Sunday night, but impacts are forecast to be minimal or none.

- Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and precipitation to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Some northern areas, including higher elevations of southwest Virginia, may begin as snow Monday night. All rain is expected Tuesday with a gradual changeover to snow late Tuesday across higher elevations.

- Dry again Wednesday and Thursday with precipitation chances increasing once again Friday into next Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Surface high pressure currently influencing the southern and central Appalachians will be forced eastwards by an upper trough swinging into the Ohio Valley region later this evening. Isentropic ascent will lead to increasing mid-level clouds and some virga or very light rain late this evening. A southwesterly LLJ near 45 to 50 knots developing this evening into early Sunday morning will also promote gusty winds across the mountains and immediate foothills. Direction is not great, and the strongest of the jet core is well over northeastern KY, trending this mountain wind event more marginal in nature. A Wind Advisory has been introduced for our mountain zones for gusts between 45 to 55mph. This comes to an end at sunrise Sunday, when the jet lifts northeast with weakening flow becoming parallel to the spine of the Appalachians.

Precip chances will also be increasing early Sunday morning but persist through the mid-afternoon. The strong WAA will keep rain the predominant precip type, though, a non-impactful light wintry mix will be possible in the highest elevations of the mountains for a very brief period at precip onset. Little to no impacts are expected. The quick moving wave will allow for rain chances to dwindle though the late afternoon and into the evening hours Sunday.

Continued cool but dry conditions are expected Monday as secondary system develops across the southeast Monday night into Tuesday. Latest NAM has both stronger flow and more favorable southerly direction of the H85 jet. Paired with a tighter pressure gradient associated with the Miller A type system, an additional mountain wave event is possible, potentially of greater magnitude. There is still some potential the position of the LLJ trends further south and east(as depicted by the Euro) which could limit that threat. Something we will monitor closely, nonetheless. Temperatures across the valley locations will favor predominately rain once again. Far northeast Tennessee mountains and higher terrain of southwest Virgina have the potential to see a light wintry mix or freezing rain, however, confidence is fairly low at this time because WAA and downslope warming associated with the aforementioned LLJ may hinder CAD from spilling into our northeastern zones. Have kept very limited accumulations because of this.

Rain gradually comes to an end Tuesday evening, with light orographic snow possible in the brief northwest flow behind the departing system. A drier period under the influence of high-pressure mid week may be disturbed by an additional system Friday into the weekend. However, considerable disagreements still exist between deterministic models and uncertainty is high.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions for the TAF period. Light winds near 5kts are expected at TRI/TYS today, while SSE winds may periodically gust between 15-20kts at CHA this afternoon. BKN/OVC cigs around 10kft will become more prevailing later this evening, continuing a lowering trend towards 5kft-7kft as scattered light showers develop near or shortly after midnight tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 40 50 28 / 0 50 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 37 49 26 / 0 50 60 0 Oak Ridge, TN 48 37 48 25 / 0 50 50 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 33 46 22 / 0 30 50 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.