textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory remain in effect for portions of the NWS Morristown forecast area through this morning.

- Cooler temperatures continue this afternoon, with a warming trend heading into next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers possible in northern areas Monday morning, otherwise, the next chance for widespread showers and storms will be mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Weak vort max is beginning to depart the southern Appalachians as light shower activity has diminished. Clouds will continue to clear into the morning and promote favorable radiational cooling conditions that will lead to frost/freeze for northern portions of the area. Dry weather with continued cool temperatures expected this afternoon.

Minor H5 height rises and a shift to more amplified southwesterly flow in the low-levels will promote a warming trend into the 70s or near 80 early next week. Monday will feature a weak impulse traversing mean flow aloft. CAMs have come into a little better agreement with scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder impacting northern locations Monday morning into the early afternoon.

A stronger shortwave is expected to reinforce the Great Lakes region troughing mid-week. Can't rule out some precip Tuesday night but deterministic models are in fairly good agreement that the more widespread precip chances ramp up Wednesday/Wed Night. Latest NBM probabilities for rain accums > 1.0" have stayed steady around 60- 70% this forecast cycle. However, a slight uptick in joint probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and Bulk Shear > 40kts can be noted in LREF probabilities. These probabilities generally range between 40-50% along and south of interstate 40. Some deterministic guidance hints at jet coupling that could possibly enhance lift enough to help overcome a low CAPE environment. Biggest concern would be locally gusty winds and heavy downpours with any stronger storms. There may also be potential for some late season mtn/foothill gusty winds with a southwesterly LLJ and tightening pressure gradient. Cooler and drier conditions end the week post FROPA, with the potential for another quick shot of light rain next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 46 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 46 78 55 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 43 79 54 / 0 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 40 75 49 / 0 10 30 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger- Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-Northwest Greene-Scott TN-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene- Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for Johnson-Southeast Carter.

VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.