textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 653 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this evening across portions of the central east TN Valley. Although confidence is low, additional flooding is possible if these cells move across already saturated grounds.

- Hot temperatures well into the 90s are likely this coming work week. Heat indices will climb above 100 degrees in the Tennessee Valley. The central and southern valley will be right around to just below Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. No Heat Advisory at this time but one may be needed in the following days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The bulk of the precipitation has moved off to our southeast. Flooding remains on going across some areas. MRMS 24 hour QPF estimates a swath of 3 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts over 5 inches, fell in a corridor from the northern Cumberland Plateau, down through Knoxville, and then continuing down through the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Areas adjacent to this heavier swatch picked up 1 to 3 inches. Our southern areas saw very little to no rainfall, this includes the southern TN Valley and southwest NC.

Something to watch this evening and overnight, a strong thermal gradient is in place between the southern TN Valley and central TN Valley, roughly 15 to 20 degree difference between CHA and TYS. The gradient is due to clear skies and resultant heating to the south and earlier clouds and rain cooled air to the north. The CAMS suggest that this gradient will provide focus for additional, isolated to scattered, showers and storms this evening and into the overnight hours. Though the corridor of convection will be small, areas that are already saturated and see any additional heavier rain may flood quickly. This is due to 1 hour FFG values as low as half an inch in some spots across the central TN Valley and some 3 hour FFG values below 1 inch. With PW still elevated, between 1.5 to 2 inches, any stronger convection has the potential to produce high rain rates. Soundings still look sufficient for heavy rain makers with tall skinny CAPE profiles and some weak shear. The mean steering flow is out of the west northwest. Some locally training of storms is likely with the evening round of convection. Again, low confidence, but additional flooding is certainly possible if storms occur and occur across areas already saturated.

A few showers and storms are expected on Monday along the leading edge of the advancing high and backside of the trough (central TN Valley). Otherwise, Monday through Friday will be hot and mostly dry as a strong ridge stays anchored over the Eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 90s in the Tennessee Valley. Wednesday through Friday will be even hotter with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index around 100 degrees is likely in the Southern and Central Tennessee Valley Monday and Tuesday. Heat index will be climbing into the 100 to 105 range on Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A few showers or even an isolated storm are possible through the evening around TYS, but these chances diminish towards midnight. CHA and TRI are expected to stay dry. Overnight into the early morning hours, fog is likely at TRI with lesser but still present chances at TYS. TRI has a much higher chance of seeing IFR or less, but this is still possible at TYS. Conditions should improve by mid-morning with light and variable winds afterwards.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 91 73 93 / 50 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 72 92 74 94 / 40 30 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 89 69 93 / 10 20 10 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.