textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly for the Southern Appalachians this afternoon and evening.

- Highest chances for showers and storms will be tomorrow into Friday.

- Most locations will be dry for the weekend, but we will see a trend toward hotter conditions that will continue into the first part of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Surface high pressure placed to our east will allow southwesterly return flow/moisture increase today. The ever persistent SW ridge will cycle in place through the week before moving our direction this weekend into next week. A shortwave will cross the Great Lakes today into tomorrow before cycling back into Canada. This will send a frontal system across our area tomorrow into Friday, providing increased coverage of showers and storms. Following the system, troughing lifts north the last weekend of August, allowing the ridge to move in, increase heights, and thus, bring hotter than normal temperatures to welcome in September. Valley highs in the low to mid 90s and dew points approaching 70 are forecast.

The increased moisture and slightly warmer temperatures today, will allow the right environment for pulse convection to form primarily over the higher terrain (Southern Appalachians) today. Shear will be on the weaker side, and instability will be just enough to support development. Prime timing will be the early afternoon through the early evening hours.

Better coverage with increased chances elsewhere in the forecast area, comes tomorrow as a weak frontal system approaches. Instability will be a bit better, as well as shear, but the chance for strong to severe isn't as clear. Thursday morning activity may limit the potential later in the day. Point forecast soundings do portray at least a marginal threat. Right now the best chance for severe will be outside of our area to the north and east. However, a few storms may produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Following the frontal passage early Friday, surface high pressure fills in from the north trying to dry out areas underneath it. The NBM, however, does keep some precipitation chances around over the weekend and the beginning of next week, but mainly for the mountains.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

A few clouds streaming overhead, dewpoint depressions are closer to 0 at KTRI but given no fog yesterday morning, and lesser support for this morning, included a patchy fog note in the TAF but not confident in even a TEMPO for VIS/CIG restrictions from fog. Otherwise a dry day on tap with any showers forming likely to be anchored over the East TN mountains and remain east of the terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 72 90 71 / 10 30 70 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 70 89 70 / 10 20 50 60 Oak Ridge, TN 91 69 88 69 / 10 20 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 86 66 / 10 10 40 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.