textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 231 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Patchy fog possible this morning. Use caution when driving through fog.

- Unusually warm this week with only very isolated rain chances through Thursday. Light rain is likely mainly north of Knoxville during the Friday PM hours.

- Widespread frost potential north of the Knox Metro in the valley and for elevated locations Saturday and Sunday nights. Consider bringing frost sensitive plants indoors.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Hot for October to continue today thanks to the highly anomalous ridge to our south. Moisture riding up and over the ridge will spark some showers and storms north and northwest of East Tennessee and southwest VA. It is conceivable, as shown in a few HRRR runs, that light rain from dying cells reaches the northern Plateau like Scott County TN late this evening into tonight, but rainfall will remain inconsequential. Otherwise we will be again near daily record highs both today and tomorrow.

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 10-14 87(1954) 87(1881) 85(1954) 85(1954) 10-15 85(1950) 87(1897) 83(1971) 83(2021)

There is again very low potential for a rain shower Thursday afternoon, but is likely confined to southwestern Virginia per ensemble consensus with guidance depicting very meager CAPE profiles.

A phased upper trough will bring about a polar front into the Eastern US for Friday. Despite rain chances being quite high for portions of northeastern TN into VA, overall rain amounts are pitiful thanks to the shallow vertical moisture profiles. Light rain showers will pass through both along the front, and post-frontal into Friday evening. Winds may be a bit breezy Friday afternoon, chilly as cold air advection starts working behind the front in a northwest flow. Saturday, then, is much cooler versus Friday and sets us up for a cool couple of nights. For the Tri-Cities, this frontal passage is right on time to experience the first bout of temperatures favorable for frost. Those with temperature sensitive plants should consider bringing them in definitely for Saturday night, as well as Sunday night, especially in northern locales. Best chances for temperatures less than 37F remain in elevated terrain and north of the Knoxville Metropolitan area. Temperatures then will slightly rebound going into early next week as we maintain a below average precipitation stance for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Fog overnight will again be the main issue for this TAF period. Confidence is low as we move farther away from our last rainfall, but expect that rivers and lakes will have some fog develop in the next few hours. This favors TRI for fog, with LIFR possible. Cannot rule out for at CHA again, but confidence there is lower and will have a TEMPO for MVFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 65 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 64 87 65 / 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 85 64 86 62 / 0 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.