textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 317 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the end of the work week, with the best chance of rain during each afternoon.

- There will be potential for a few storms to become strong to severe each afternoon with damaging winds and localized flooding the main threats.

- Temperatures will be generally not be far either side of normal for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A quiet start to the week before an active pattern settles in through the end of the work week. Temperatures have warmed up quick after morning fog burned off. Highs will top out a few degrees either side of normal for mid-August. A few very isolated showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening, but most locations should stay dry today. Looking aloft, northwest flow will dominate the upper air pattern over the next 7 days. Our current airmass will remain locked into the region with surface dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s and highs near-normal. This will provide enough instability for near daily thunderstorm and shower chances Tuesday through the end of the work week.

There is some uncertainty with the potential for a decaying MCS Tuesday morning to move into our Virginia and northeastern TN counties. There is higher confidence for an additional MCS to impact the northern forecast area Tuesday afternoon and evening. A potent shortwave will cross through the S Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region mid day Tuesday. This will provide additional forcing and support for a line of thunderstorms (MCS) to develop upstream over the Ohio Valley that will track southeast and eventually southward into our northern forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening. Unfortunately, this is not a confidence forecast for placement/location given the potential for the morning convection that could impact where boundaries and gradients set up, which will impact where afternoon TS develops/tracks. There is moderate confidence on timing for this primary round.

Forecast soundings from hi-res guidance support non-zero bulk shear that would support potential for isolated severe weather. HRRR soundings highlight a favorable environment for damaging winds with storms on Tuesday. This would make sense given the potential MCS or linear storm mode. There is also a non-zero chance for a tornado or two in our Virginia counties. This lines up with the latest SPC outlook for Day two. A Slight risk (level 2 of 5) in our Virginia area with a Marginal (1 of 5) down into our TN area. Flash flooding and flooding cannot be ruled out given the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain tracking over the northern forecast area in Virginia and NE Tennessee. The signal from the 12Z guidance for the heaviest rainfall remains north of our forecast area.

Wednesday through Friday look similar with respect to the forecast. Northwest flow persists with the potential of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Severe threat will be low, but non-zero with wind as the primary hazard. Heavy rain will also remain a concern this week. Any location that receives multiple rounds of rain will have a greater risk of flooding. This pattern supports MCS formation, but the further out in time, the greater the uncertainty as far as timing, extent, and impacts. The upper level pattern begins to change for the weekend as heights increase as an upper level ridge begins to build into the region. This will support temperatures to trend a few degrees warmer than normal Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period at CHA and TYS. Removed PROB30 for TSRA from all sites as probs are now less. However, left VCSH in at CHA due to nearby showers just south of the TN line. TRI should be VFR other than another bout of overnight fog, then back to VFR tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 93 74 93 / 10 30 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 92 74 90 / 0 20 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 72 92 72 91 / 0 20 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 88 69 86 / 10 30 60 50

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.