textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Storms may bring strong gusty winds and large hail this afternoon in southern sections, but the threat is conditional on upstream storms moving into our area.

- After a chance of showers Tuesday, a dry weather pattern will set up across the region during the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The main focus of this forecast period will be the threat of storms this afternoon, associated with an upstream MCS that is expected to develop in the Mid MS Valley later tonight. The track of the MCS is in question, which will determine its impacts in our area in the afternoon. CAMS are still not in great agreement on whether it will enter our CWA or not - the FV3 and NAM-Nest keep it to our SW, while the HRRR develops storms along its NE outflow that track across the central and southern TN Valley. It is notable that the most recent HRRR runs are keeping the strongest convection in West and Middle TN/MS/AL. Confidence is low that we will get storms, but the atmosphere will support severe storms with damaging winds and large hail if they do happen. At CHA, MLCAPE values in NAM soundings are around 1800 J/kg, effective shear values are around 40 kt, DCAPE values are around 1100 J/kg, and WBZ heights are around 10 kft. Timing of this potential threat appears to be between 18-22Z. Low level wind profiles will not support a tornado threat. Hopefully the CAMS will come into better agreement on the track of this MCS with later runs when it has formed.

On Tuesday, we will see a deep northerly flow as the closed low over the Mid Atlantic region becomes dominant. There could be some scattered to isolated showers/storms in our eastern sections Tuesday afternoon as a shortwave trough extending from the close low rotates across the Appalachians. The cold temps aloft under this trough will generate scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Some small hail cannot be ruled out either, given the cold temps aloft creating midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km and WBZ heights around 8 kft.

For Wednesday and beyond, a large blocking ridge will be over the region, keeping dry conditions with a warming trend for the rest of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A thunderstorm complex is expected to push southeast through TN and into northern AL/GA this afternoon and evening. There is uncertainty in the exact track but confidence is high enough to include a PROB30 for TSRA at both KCHA and KTYS. Chances are higher at KCHA but will wait for better agreement in guidance before including any TEMPO or prevailing TSRA at either site. Otherwise, MVFR CIGS will prevail through mid morning before lifting to VFR. Guidance also indicates that VFR will prevail after the passing of any convection later today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 66 81 59 / 70 40 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 61 80 56 / 30 20 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 83 60 80 55 / 30 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 77 51 / 10 10 30 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.