textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Strong gusty winds will occur in the higher elevations and foothills of the east Tennessee mountains tonight and Wednesday. A Wind Advisory is in effect.

- Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms expected Wednesday into Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging across the eastern US keeps us under moderate weather today. Our next system arrives on Wednesday into Wednesday night that will bring a mixture of strong winds in the mountains/foothills and widespread rain to the southern Appalachians. Mountain wave winds out of the southeast will ramp up throughout the evening and continue for Wednesday. Expect the typical mountain wave locations to see wind gusts of 40-55mph... With a few isolated places seeing gusts above 60 in the locations that typically get the strongest mountain wave winds like Cove Mountain or Camp Creek.

The cold front that is ushering in this rain and wind will move through Wednesday into Wednesday night. The dynamics associated with this frontal passage look pretty moderate... So expect there to be enough instability for thunderstorms, but at this time the chance for severe weather is very low. Rainfall with this system is expected to be more rain than we've seen in several weeks... generally between 0.25" to 0.75". A few locations that get multiple heavier thunderstorms could eclipse the 1" threshold, especially along areas of increased orographic lift on the western edge of ridgetops, plateaus, and mountains. Can't rule out brief flooding of low lying or urban areas, but with the lack of rain this Autumn, the rivers and streams should be able to handle the anticipated rainfall.

Temperatures will begin to cool as we head into the weekend, and we'll return to seasonal temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30/40s.. The drier, cooler airmass will return and another pleasant weekend of light winds and sunny skies is expected.

Longer term models show a general uptick in the synoptic pattern, so it looks like we might be in for a bit more active weather and rain chances for November compared the past several weeks.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Expect increasing winds with an approaching front which could increase the LLWS across the southern Appalachians. Have included WS during the time frame of strongest winds aloft. Expect rain to move in at the tail end of this TAF cycle, but conditions will likely not deteriorate until just past the end of this forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 71 61 75 / 60 100 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 74 61 73 / 20 90 90 40 Oak Ridge, TN 59 72 60 73 / 20 90 90 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 73 59 73 / 0 70 80 30

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Wednesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.