textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 737 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will continue to bring scattered showers and breezy conditions to the region through tomorrow.

- High winds with gusts of 60 mph or more are possible over the Tennessee mountains and foothills, southwestern North Carolina, and portions of southwest Virginia. Gusty winds up to 45 mph elsewhere.

- Dry with warming temperatures into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Isaias is now considered a Post-Tropical Cyclone. It's centered over AL at the time of this discussion. The center will pass over or just to our west through tonight. It is then expected to track into the Virginia's tomorrow. Much like a mid-latitude cyclone typically seen in the colder season, wrap-around from the system will continue to bring precipitation over the higher terrain into early Monday.

The Flood Watch was dropped much earlier than forecast due to much lighter rainfall rates and general accumulated precipitation thus far. Heaviest rainfall amounts have been across the southern portion of our forecast area immediately bordering GA and SW NC. Areas that may possibly see close to an inch or more of rain to come will be the higher elevations in SW VA and along upslope parts of the Southern Appalachians.

Wind has been a complicating element of this storm. At least from observations we do have from mountainous terrain, nothing has come close to High Wind Warning for any areas currently under that hazard. Winds didn't increase late last night into this morning like forecast models had shown. Most areas have recorded gusts between 25 and up to 40 mph since early this morning; very isolated gusts over 40. According to high-res models, stronger gusts will move out of much of the valley and plateau as we approach the evening. Wind gusts will confine more to the Southern Appalachians and northeast parts of the forecast area including, NE TN and SW VA. Higher elevation gusts peak sometime tonight before decreasing into tomorrow morning. It's possible the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning currently out, become refined and/or cancelled earlier than 8 am tomorrow.

Following the phasing of the closed upper low eventually departing to our east, upper level ridging will move in from the west the beginning of the new work-week. This will dry things out for us as we get later into Monday and especially through at least early Wednesday. Upper 80s to near 90 will be possible Wednesday afternoon. Another trough and possible shortwave may impact the region towards the end of the week/weekend, but deterministic runs differ greatly on the synoptic pattern.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Varying CIGs at the start of the period with a gradual trend toward MVFR and even IFR overnight. Winds will stay NE winds a bit longer than originally thought before turning more south and southwesterly on Sunday. Gusts will taper off as winds decrease tonight. A few isolated gusts up to 25 kts are possible. A few passing showers are likely, especially at TRI this evening, becoming more hit or miss by daybreak Sunday. TRI could see a brief stint of LLWS tonight that'll end by daybreak. Sunday will generally feature MVFR cigs with occasional showers. Conditions should begin to slowly improve at the end of the TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 73 59 85 / 90 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 70 61 81 / 80 60 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 62 70 59 82 / 90 60 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 74 61 76 / 90 90 50 10

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion- McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe- Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN- West Polk.

VA...High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Russell-Washington VA.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Lee-Scott VA-Wise.