textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Dry conditions extend through today with warming temperatures. Breezy winds also to develop throughout the day. Highest gusts possible over the higher terrain up to 40 mph overnight tonight.

- A system will impact the region early tomorrow morning through Friday. A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding are also possible.

- Drier weather returns later on Friday through Saturday before more rain chances Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A dry day can be expected today as we become sandwiched between two systems, a strong frontal system to the north and tropical moisture across the south. Highs today will be markedly higher, with mid to upper 80s forecast in the valley. Low level flow is expected to increase, bringing increased dew points and gusty winds. A low pressure center, the focus for the best chance of severe weather across the country today, will develop west of the Great Lakes. As it crosses Michigan and heads into Ontario, it deepens to a 985 mb center or so. Increased southwesterly flow and a tightening pressure gradient across the area will lead to gusty winds that will only increase in magnitude as we go into the night and persist until morning. Gusts may be strongest over the higher terrain of the northern plateau, Smokies, and southwest VA. Gusts could range from 25 to 35 mph with isolated up to 40 mph values.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One (as of 11 pm EDT) will aid the first push of moisture into the area early tomorrow. If it becomes a named storm before landfall today, it's expected to weaken as soon as it crosses LA into MS early tomorrow. Showers and storms will ride up from the south and southwest. Although instability will be on the rise coinciding with peak heating, overall shear will be decreasing from the south to the north. With PWATs increasing to near 2 inches, flash flooding potential will be present. The WPC ERO over much of the forecast area is a SLGT or at least 15 percent chance of flash flooding. The SPC Outlook at the time of this discussion paints SLGT to the north or over southwest VA, with MRGL for the rest of the forecast area. There's uncertainty with severe as the tropical moisture lifting north clashes with the frontal system eventually sinking south. The front itself appears will be an overnight event into Friday.

Precipitation chances eventually decrease from northwest to southeast as the day progresses on Friday. Temperatures will trend cooler Friday with warming into the weekend. Brief high pressure will dominate a part of the weekend with chances for precipitation increasing Sunday. Chances then continue to persist through Monday, possibly into Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 144 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR Knoxville and north to continue. A low stratus deck around 1k feet in northern GA/AL is slowly sliding to the northeast and should arrive at KCHA around 9z and reduce CIGs to at least low MVFR conditions. Stratus should scatter late morning. Winds will pick up in the afternoon in response to a significant late season storm in the Midwest. Low confidence in vertical profile post 03z tonight, winds may continue to gust but if the inversion sets up would have to introduce LLWS at TYS and TRI around the end of the period as winds aloft are strengthening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 73 86 70 / 0 30 90 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 73 87 69 / 0 20 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 87 73 87 68 / 0 30 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 88 66 / 0 10 80 90

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.