textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 246 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through this evening, and again on Monday afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible during these times along with gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Possible strong cold frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday bears watching for severe weather capability.

- Below normal temperatures and drier air will follow beyond Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are ongoing this afternoon. This activity will persist through this evening, decreasing in coverage after sunset with loss of heating. A few strong strong to marginally severe storms are possible due to moderate CAPE, but very weak bulk shear. The main threat with any stronger storm will be localized gusty winds. Heavy rain is also expected as PWATS are around 2 inches, this may lead to isolated flooding for some as hourly rain rates will be several inches per hour in some cases. Any area that sees repeat heavy showers through this evening will be most at risk for flooding. Again, gusty wind threat and flood threat will be isolated.

Tomorrow, we are expecting another round of afternoon convection but it should be more isolated. Having said that, a few strong storms are once again possible and may produce gusty winds and flooding. The best coverage of storms will likely be for areas east of I-75, and greatest across the east TN mountains and possibly foothills.

Tuesday/Wednesday, we are still watching an upper trough and cold front that may lead to strong to severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This is due to an expected increase in shear during this time. SPC currently has areas along and north of I-40 in a Slight risk, with a marginal risk for areas south of I-40. We are still not in range of the CAMS, but the longer range deterministic models and ensembles show convection arriving late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. According to the NAM soundings, the environment still looks supportive of strong storms even during the overnight hours, which typically isn't the case. While strong and gusty winds and heavy rain/isolated flooding will be the main threats, a low end tornado threat will also exist due to the shear in place. The tor threat will ultimately depend on whether storms remain surface-based during the overnight hours or become elevated. Joint LREF Probs for surface CAPE above 500 J/kg and Bulk Shear greater than 30 kts during the overnight hours ranges between 30 and 50% north of I-40.

Following the mid-week cold front, Thursday will be very nice with low to mid 80s highs and dew points in the 60s under high pressure. Temperatures rise a couple of degrees into the weekend, but for the most part remain below normal. A shortwave cycling the top of the upper ridge Friday into Saturday, may bring precipitation chances back to the area and unfortunately increased dew points yet again.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon through early evening. VCTS and prob30 are in for all sites during this time. MVFR conditions possible with any passing shower or storm directly over a terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. Lastly, fog is possible tomorrow morning for any site that receives enough rain through this afternoon and evening but not confident enough to mention yet in TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 92 75 93 / 20 40 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 90 74 90 / 30 20 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 72 90 73 90 / 30 20 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 88 69 88 / 30 20 50 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.