textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 123 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Rain is expected through through the morning hours with the best chance for a few rumbles of thunder across portions of southeast TN and southwest NC. Afternoon will be mostly dry, with light rain precipitation returning tonight.

- Quick shot of light snow Sunday morning, then a break Sunday afternoon. Northwest flow snowfall Sunday night through Monday evening. Light accumulations expected in the East TN Mountains and southwest Virginia, with potential for low elevation flurries at times.

- Gusty winds Sunday through Monday. Gusts around 30 mph expected for valley locations with gusts near 40mph possible in the mountains.

- Wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected Sunday through Monday across the higher elevations of southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

A shortwave traversing mean flow aloft will continue to promote rain showers through the overnight. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be totally ruled out with very minimal elevated instability, but no significant impacts are expected as shear is also limited with a weak LLJ displaced just to our south. Best chance for a few rumbles of thunder will be in the southern valley and southwest NC. Rain will gradually come to an end through the morning, with a mostly dry afternoon expected.

A more prominent trough digs into the Ohio Valley as a cold front approaches the region later this evening and tonight. Precipitation chances will return as mostly rain to begin. As temperatures begin to fall early Sunday morning, a transition to snow is expected to bring light accumulations in the East Tennessee mountains and southwest Virginia. SW VA and E TN Mtns elevations 2kft or less would can expected a dusting to just a few tenths during this time. Mtn elevations above 2kft could see up to two inches, with isolated higher totals at the tallest peaks +5kft. A few flurries cannot be ruled out in lower elevations of NE TN Valley and the Cumberland Plateau but accumulation seems unlikely due to warmer grounds.

Moisture becomes very limited with mostly dry conditions for a brief period late morning and afternoon Sunday. A reinforcing disturbance and deepening of the sfc low along the East Coast will allow for a resurgence of low-level moisture and amplified NW flow Sunday night into Monday. Additional snowfall accumulations are expected in northwest flow snowfall locations through Monday evening. This will be the most likely time to see totals up to 2 inches in portions of southwest VA, with locally higher totals in the most favored ridge tops. Portions of the northern Plateau and northeast TN could also see a dusting to a few tenths of an inch. An additional 1 to 3 inches could be possible in the east TN mountains.

Overall, snowfall totals for southwest Virginia will trend up to 2 inches with locally higher totals for the event. East TN mountain locations can expect 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher totals near 5 inches at the very highest peaks. Portions of NE TN valley and Cumberland Plateau could see a dusting to a few tenths. Additionally, gusty winds are expected Sunday and Monday. With below normal temperatures in place, wind Chills in the single digits to below zero are expected Sunday through Monday across the higher elevations of the southwest VA, East TN, and southwest NC mountains.

Snow tapers off Monday night with drier conditions and warming trend expected into the mid-week. Next chances for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday with it currently looking to trend drier by next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Showers will exit early this morning, but will make a return during the night. Mainly VFR conditions for much of the period all sites, with MVFR conditions likely late in the period especially TYS and TRI as the showers move in. Winds will generally be light, but will increase from the north and northwest late in the period to around 10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 34 46 24 / 30 30 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 34 41 25 / 30 40 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 33 41 24 / 20 40 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 34 38 23 / 20 60 40 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.