textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 249 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Dry and mild conditions will continue through Wednesday into Wednesday night.

- A system will impact the region early Thursday morning through Friday. Strong winds are possible in the mountains Thursday morning. A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding are also possible Thursday night.

- Drier weather returns later on Friday through Saturday before more rain chances Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Currently this afternoon, broad troughing remains in place across the eastern U.S. with high pressure receding to the east. A surface low is moving up in Canada with the recent frontal boundary to our south. Focus has also shifted towards the western Gulf where a brief tropical cyclone is forecast to develop. Locally, dry air remains in place as evidenced by below normal PWAT values near 1 to 1.25 inches. By tonight, troughing will have lifted off to the east with another shortwave and developing surface low across the northern Great Plains. This will lead to a strengthening low-level jet and broad southerly flow pulling the frontal boundary back northward into Wednesday morning. The tropical disturbance to the south is forecast to reach tropical storm strength and move into the southern Mississippi Valley where it weakens overnight. Dry air still remains in place on Wednesday before the front moves north of the region overnight. During this time, an abnormally late-season wind event is increasingly likely for the mountains. This is due to 850mb flow exceeding 40 kts, though from the WSW with limited mountain wave enhancement. Some initial showers are possible, but moisture will be slow to get into the area by the morning.

Throughout the day on Thursday, the remnant moisture from the tropical system will move towards the region with increasing upper- divergence ahead of a 50 to 70 kt jet streak. This will lead to robust moisture advection with the initial frontal boundary approaching from the north. Based on the latest data, indications of overall instability have lessened from some previous model runs, including during the day on Thursday. However, 850mb flow is indicated to strengthen again back to 40 to 50 kts. The current CAMs currently don't show much activity during the day on Thursday with the focus shifting more towards the overnight period. The overall environment per NAM indications seems more like something seen in the spring with 0-1km shear exceeding 30 kts and deep-layer shear in the 35 to 40 kt range. Also, strong 850mb moisture transport will push PWAT values to 2 inches or greater from the remnant tropical moisture. This presents increasing concern for flooding, in addition to a damaging winds and potential for a brief, spin-up tornado. The flooding threat will continue into Friday as rain continues ahead of the front moving north to south. Some other sources, such as the GFS, show less phasing of everything and more limited overall impact.

As the front moves southward Friday into Friday night, a surface high will build to our northwest, leading to milder and drier conditions. By Saturday, troughing will be lifting to the northeast, promoting height rises and another increase in temperatures. By Sunday, high pressure will shift off to the east with increasing southerly flow pulling the front back northward. This will cause another return of rain chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Clouds will linger across the region today, generally at or above 5,000 feet AGL with winds from a westerly direction at 10 kts or less. Overnight into early Wednesday morning, some lower clouds are expected to move in from the south, especially at CHA and TYS with reductions to MVFR most likely at CHA. Otherwise, improvements back to VFR and more southerly winds are expected tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 88 73 86 / 0 0 30 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 88 73 87 / 10 0 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 61 87 73 87 / 10 0 30 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 87 68 88 / 10 0 10 80

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.