textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 723 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Gusty winds across portions of the East Tennessee mountains and adjacent foothills for the remainder of tonight.

- Daily chances of showers and storms exist each day through the forecast period.

- Conditions will also be humid with no relief in sight until possibly next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Gusty winds over some of the higher elevations and foothills of the E TN mountains will continue through the remainder of the night as mountain wave enhancement of the winds is occurring. These winds are expected to decrease around sunrise. The wind advisory for these areas will continue through 7 AM.

We stay in a wet pattern for much of the period. The weak frontal boundary to our north and northwest will meander a bit but not make much progress over the next several days, and deep south and southwest flow aloft will keep plenty of Gulf moisture feeding into our area.

Another weak impulse aloft will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms Sunday, although exact timing of peak coverage is still uncertain. Models show PWAT values near 1.5-1.8"(near daily max of KBNA sounding climatology) Sunday, and shear generally looks limited while mid level lapse rates are less than 6C/km. Rain rates should be high but the severe threat looks low with Sunday's convection. However, depending on how much instability develops (which will be impacted by the timing/coverage of precipitation), we may see a few storms bring strong wind gusts in addition to very heavy downpours that could result in localized flooding.

As we move into the work week, we will continue to see rounds of showers and storms with timing influenced by additional weak impulses in the upper flow, but with afternoons expected to see the highest chances overall. Localized flooding will be a concern for any areas that see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain given the abundant moisture. While temperatures will be seasonable, the high dewpoints will lead to a humid and sticky feeling airmass for the period as well.

Some models are hinting that the front could push to our south late in the period with drier air moving into our area by Friday or Saturday. However, there is no consensus on this scenario for now, and the ensemble approach of the NBM shows showers and storms again both days, albeit with PoPs trending a bit lower by Saturday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 723 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Conditions are mostly VFR, except for IFR at CHA. Some patchy fog has developed at CHA but appears to be localized and will likely be brief. Multiple rounds of mostly showers with isolated storms are expected. Best chance for thunder will be in the afternoon/evening hours but it is hard to narrow down the timeframe and will be hit and miss.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 65 80 66 / 90 70 90 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 65 80 65 / 90 70 90 90 Oak Ridge, TN 80 63 79 64 / 90 80 80 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 61 80 62 / 90 70 80 70

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.