textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Dry weather will continue through Wednesday with a gradual warming trend.

- A system will bring area-wide rainfall by Thursday, followed by much colder temperatures and a changeover to snow in the higher elevations. Accumulations are likely for these areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Currently, troughing is centered to our northeast with ridging building to our west. Surface high pressure remains in place across the region, centered near the southern Mississippi River Valley. This will continue to produce dry conditions during peak heating with height rises allowing highs to get further into the 60s. With subsidence, another cool night in the 30s can be expected for most places. On Tuesday, flow becomes more quasi-zonal with additional height rises warming daytime highs to around 70 for most places. By Wednesday, a shortwave will eject out of the northern Great Plains with a deepening surface low progressing towards the Ohio River Valley. This will lead to increasing southerly flow and moisture advection sufficient for a return of rain chances area-wide into Thursday morning.

The surface low then progresses to our northeast through the day with the associated cold front progressing off to the east during the day with a shift to northwesterly flow. This will lead to more focus along the higher elevations for orographic lift and decreasing coverage elsewhere. By early evening, 850mb temperatures will drop to freezing with 20 to 25 kts of flow and moisture in the lower levels, marking a transition to snow in the mountains. By Friday morning, 850mb flow will remain largely unchanged with temperatures at this level falling to near -5 Celsius and additional moisture. The first widespread high elevation snow is likely, especially across the highest peaks. Based on these indications, well below normal temperatures are expected area-wide on Friday with a few sprinkles or flurries possible. Low-level moisture is slow to exit the higher elevations on Friday night with light snow showers possibly lingering into Saturday. The main question at this point will be how much moisture lingers as the depth of cold air and low- level flow are both very confident. Regardless, impacts will likely be limited to the higher elevations. Troughing will remain in place through the weekend with approaching Canadian high pressure leading to colder and dry conditions, especially in the mornings. Lows will likely be below freezing area-wide with some places falling deep into the 20s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR under high pressure conditions can be expected through the TAF period. Winds will either be calm or light & variable primarily out of the SW. Mostly clear skies with periods of FEW150-250 at times. Further drying should lead to a mostly fog- free night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 71 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 67 39 68 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.