textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 756 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding possible through this evening. Flood Watch in place across southwest VA and portions of northeast TN through 2 AM Friday. A low-end tornado risk in place north of I-40.

- Breezy conditions continue through this evening with valley gusts up to 30 mph. Wind gusts over the higher terrain could gust up to around 40 mph.

- Drier weather returns later tomorrow through Saturday before more rain chances Sunday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Main concern through this evening will be the potential for a few strong to severe storms, along with isolated flooding. Showers and storms are currently ongoing along and ahead of a cold front that is drifting south out of KY. The showers and storms associated/close to the cold front will pose an isolated flooding risk as storms train west to east. Areas along the TN/KY state line, northeast TN, and southwest VA have the highest chances to see isolated flooding through this evening. Flood Watch has been issued for southwest VA and portions of northeast TN through 2 AM Friday.

Additionally, the aforementioned areas also have a low-end tornado risk due to the combination of shear and instability. We have already noted some weak and broad rotation in a cluster of storms that moved through northeast TN and southwest VA earlier this afternoon. While instability and shear are supportive of a tornado environment, mid level lapse rates are quite poor. This will hopefully help to deter any robust updrafts which will help to limit our tornado threat. Weak and broad rotation will likely be seen in additional storms through this evening. We will keep a close eye on the radar through the remainder of the day.

Otherwise, a few strong to severe storms are possible across the rest of the area through this evening. The main threats will be heavy rain and isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

The remnants of Arthur will mostly skirt just south of us, exiting into the Carolinas late tonight. Orographically induced showers may persist over the Southern Appalachians into the early morning hours tomorrow, while the rest of the area dries out. Lower humidity and somewhat lower high temperatures can be expected tomorrow afternoon. High pressure building in from the Midwest will filter in with northwesterly flow into Saturday. Even lower humidity values Saturday even though temperatures rebound some.

High pressure will lose its influence over the area Sunday and into next week as another frontal system develops under a shortwave barreling in from the Midwest region. A second shortwave possibly following it. A front forecast to arc along the Gulf coast towards the middle of next week, will keep the unsettled weather around. High temperatures could be impacted next week under troughiness and daily chances of precipitation.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 756 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Showers and storms continue to move towards TRI with erratic wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts likely over the next 30 minutes or so. Reductions to MVFR or IFR are also possible. At the other two sites, improvements have been observed and will continue over the next several hours. Late tonight into early Friday morning, reductions are expected with additional showers or isolated storms ahead of the front. Recovery is expected throughout the day with a more northerly wind direction.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 86 64 86 / 80 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 84 62 85 / 80 20 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 84 60 85 / 70 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 82 57 83 / 90 30 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for Hancock-Hawkins-Johnson- Northwest Carter-Sullivan.

VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA- Washington VA-Wise.