textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 609 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Unseasonable warm weather today through the weekend. Near record temperatures possible across Chattanooga.

- Widespread rain for late Sunday night and Monday morning with a strong cold front.

- Strong and gusty winds expected across the region Sunday night and Monday, especially for the higher elevations.

- Much colder airmass moves into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians for late Sunday and especially early next week. Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Currently, an area of scattered showers is moving southeast across east Kentucky and southern West Virginia. This band is associated with a back door cold front that will move south into southwest Virgina late today and overnight. Otherwise, a good deal of cloud cover over the region associated with a moist environment and weak isentropic lift.

For tonight, this band of showers will move into southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee as a frontal boundary becomes quasi- stationary there before lifting north on Friday. Scattered showers are expected. Also, REFS are showing high probabilities of patchy fog development overnight especially for southeast Tennessee. Some of the fog will likely be dense.

Main weather story for the rest of the week into the first half of the weekend will be a strong ridge of high pressure and anomaly high heights over the southern half of the United States. This ridge will produce unusual warmth for late December with highs around 20 degrees above normal. Near Record highs are possible across the Chattanooga area.

Another short-wave/jet streak moves across the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio valley into the central Appalachians Friday night. This system will increase the isentropic lift over the area once again pulling a weak frontal boundary toward southwest Virginia. Light rain showers possible over southwest VA/northeast TN. HREF/REFS/LREF and deterministic models show only light QPF amounts with these system and generally less than 0.10 inch.

A major pattern change will occur late this weekend and especially early next week. Ensemble cluster analysis and deterministic models show a digging upper trough over the eastern third of the nation. A strong 300mb jet of 160-165kts digs into the Ohio valley and central Appalachians producing a good deal of jet dynamics as a strong frontal boundary moves into the area late Sunday night and Monday morning. Widespread showers is expected especially early Monday morning.

The 850mb jet increases to 40-50kts for Sunday night and Monday. As the strong frontal boundary moves through with strong pressure rise do expect strong and gusty winds with fropa. Also, strong gradient winds will enhance the winds especially for the higher elevations. A wind advisory may be need for the higher elevations.

Much colder airmass quickly moves into the region for Monday and Tuesday with highs 30+ degrees colder than this week. Highs Monday will be early in the morning then temperatures falling during the day. Precipitation will change over to light snow or flurries across the higher elevations before ending. Snow accumulations will be less than 1 inch.

Wind chills may drop below zero across the higher elevations Monday night with single digits and teens in the valley. Cold airmass will settle into the region for Tuesday. A slow moderation will begin Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

CHA should remain MVFR through most of the period. However, there could certainly be periods of VFR but too low in confidence to specify a specific time period. TYS and TRI will see a mix of MVFR and VFR throughout the period. Also, gusty afternoon winds on Friday at TYS out of the southwest at around 20kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 72 59 76 / 0 10 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 70 58 73 / 10 20 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 67 58 71 / 10 20 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 65 56 67 / 40 30 50 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.