textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Rain chances increase Wednesday night.

- Much colder conditions for the latter part of the week. Light snow accumulations over the higher elevations of East TN and SW VA are likely Thursday night through Friday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

We will have one more in our string of pleasant fall days tomorrow, with a chilly start followed by a warm afternoon with high temperatures generally around 4 to 8 degrees above normal for this time of year.

For Wednesday night a mid/upper level short wave will dig in from the northwest with a surface low moving by to our north, dragging a cold front through our area. Rain showers will move across the area Wednesday night ahead of and near the front. Lapse rates will steepen enough that a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out Wednesday night, although convective energy is still looking extremely limited.

A taste of more winter-like conditions can be expected Thursday through Saturday as models continue to show an upper low sinking south across the Great Lakes region before shifting southeast and then east off the northeast US coast. Multiple short waves rotating around this upper low will bring additional surges of colder air, the first of which will move in later Thursday and Thursday night. The details are still not as clear as we would like, but we will likely see showers at times enhanced by the short wave energy lobes, and these showers will transition to snow showers over the higher terrain of E TN and SW VA by Thursday night as the colder air surges in. Northwest 850 mb winds of 15 to 25 kts at times during this period will help to enhance snow showers in the favored upslope snow areas of the mountains, and light snow accumulations continue to look likely over the higher elevations Thursday night through Friday night. Some snow flurries may even be seen across lower elevation areas of SW VA and the northern half of E TN especially late Friday into Friday night. Precipitation chances will come to an end on Saturday as the upper low moves off the coast and the northwest flow over our area weakens.

Building high pressure across the TN-OH Valley region will bring dry conditions for early next week, with below normal temperatures despite some gradual warming.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions will continue this TAF cycle. Southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon with gusts up to 18-20 knots possible especially at TYS. This evening, showers and possibly a few storms will start to move into the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 50 60 37 / 10 70 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 50 58 37 / 0 70 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 67 49 57 37 / 0 80 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 48 55 35 / 0 80 40 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.