textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday night into Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with potential for some strong to severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Surface high pressure will remain over the area and an upper ridge will be building in today, providing plenty of sunshine and a very warm afternoon. For fire weather concerns, relative humidity values will be quite low again today, with values in the 20s across much of the area, but winds will be lighter than yesterday. Slight improvement in minimum RH is expected Friday although values will still be low, and southwesterly winds pick up to around 10 mph across much of the area.

The ridge flattens out Friday night into Saturday as short wave energy moves into the Great Lakes Region while a weaker southern stream wave approaches our area from the west. An associated weak cold front will be pushed through our area Saturday. Models do not agree on the details with this system, but most generally agree that little or no phasing of the waves occurs and dynamics will not be strong for our area. Given the poor model run to run consistency and agreement and the fact that this is expected model behavior with these types of weaker and somewhat chaotic scenarios, it is best not to get too caught up in the details until we get closer. However, right now ensemble data suggests that CAPE will be limited and shear generally weak. Ensemble joint probabilities for SBCAPE > 500 J/kg and 0-500mb bulk shear > 30kts is generally around or less than 15% for our area, and using MUCAPE produces only slightly higher results. There is still time for things to change, but right now it appears that while a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, the probability of severe storms is quite low for Friday night into Saturday. Current total QPF shows around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rainfall with this system.

There is potential for a more significant system to bring another round of showers and storms early in the week, with the highest chance Monday night into Tuesday. Guidance suggests this more dynamic system will have better potential for a stronger LLJ that will tap into Gulf moisture. This leads to significantly greater joint probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30kts relative to the weekend system. Right now the higher severe chances still look to be to our south and west, but this system will bear watching.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Clear and calm overnight under high pressure. Dry and mostly sunny skies during the day with light W to SW winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 57 85 63 / 0 0 10 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 56 83 60 / 10 0 10 70 Oak Ridge, TN 83 54 83 60 / 0 0 10 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 50 81 57 / 0 0 10 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.