textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

- It will be cold and dry through Tuesday night, with the coldest conditions tonight into Tuesday morning when below zero wind chills will be possible in the higher elevations.

- A low chance for light rain and snow showers arrives for Wednesday night into Thursday. Minor snow accumulation possible across the higher elevations of the mountains.

- A higher chance for precipitation returns for Friday night into the weekend with chances for rain, snow, and ice. High uncertainty exists with the axis of heaviest precipitation and precipitation types, but this system should be monitored closely over the coming days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Currently, an anomalous upper-level ridge across the PacNW CONUS is resulting in longwave troughing and colder than normal temperatures across the Central and Eastern CONUS. This general pattern is expected to continue throughout the week. With 850mb temperatures around -9C to -10C tonight and 15 to 25 kt 850mb winds, wind chill values across the higher elevations will be around 0F to -5F above about 4000 ft elevation. Those hiking the Appalachian Trail, or just hiking across the higher elevations, should be prepared for very cold temperatures tonight and throughout the week.

A quickly moving shortwave trough will bring some light precipitation to the region on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures at 850mb will be right around -1C to +1C with surface temperatures near freezing in the mountains to the mid 30sF across the valley. Do not expect much precipitation with this weak system, but some light rain or non-accumulating snow will be possible across the northern valley with some light snow totals of less than one inch across the higher elevations of the mountains. This is a minor system, but it will bring a cold front across the region that reinforces cold air for our region through the end of the week.

By the weekend, there is an increasing probability of a winter storm system to impact portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. The unanswered questions remain: the strength of the storm system, the magnitude of precipitation, and the temperature profile which will determine precipitation type. In short: uncertainty is high and this forecast will likely chance and continue to evolve over the coming days. This is still 5-6 days away. However, it is a good time to go ahead and prepare for potential winter weather this Friday night through Sunday, along with the potential for very cold temperatures. We are most confident in very cold air moving into the region.

By Friday night, a strong upper-level 300mb 180kt jet streak will be near the Ohio River Valley through the Mid-Atlantic placing a broad area of weak upper divergence across the Southern Great Plains through the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley through the Southern Appalachians. A stationary Arctic cold front will be located WSW/ENE across the Great Plains through the Southern Appalachians with rain to the south, snow further north of the front, and a mix of ice in between. Overrunning precipitation will result in 12 to 18 hours of light to moderate precipitation through Sunday morning with the bulk of the precipitation likely during the day on Saturday and into Saturday night. The NBM places a band of around 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent QPF across the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South where this stationary Arctic frontal boundary sets up, but the exact location of where this sets up is highly uncertain. This magnitude of QPF would result in a relatively narrow band of significant winter weather. Any small deviations of this axis to the north or south will have drastic changes to the location of winter weather impacts. A lot will likely change over the coming days, so please continue to monitor the latest forecast updates over the week ahead as we refine areas of likely impacts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions at all sites. Breezy westerly winds expected at all sites this afternoon with gusts up to 20 to 30 kt at TYS and TRI. Calmer winds return after sunset this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 19 41 23 52 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 15 36 21 52 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 14 36 20 49 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 11 31 17 49 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.