textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 126 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- Low chance of rain showers this morning across southwest VA and slight chance thunder.

- Showers and storms Tuesday night through Thursday morning, with periods of heavy rain possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Ongoing showers/storms across southern IL/IN will be tracking E-SE through the night along a weak warm front. CAMS show this activity expanding in the next few hours, and clipping our SW VA counties between 6-10 AM. With only weak elevated instability, this should mainly just be showers with thunderstorms being isolated at best. Otherwise, it will be a mostly sunny day with temperatures warmer than we have had recently, in the mid to upper 70s.

An approaching cold front will bring showers into the area Tuesday night, with an extended wet period expected through Thursday as that front stalls near the area. There are several things we are watching with this system:

Winds: A southerly LLJ jet develops Tuesday evening. REFS proability of winds 40 kt or greater are around 70% in the East TN mountains. With the slow progression of the front, 850 mb winds continue in the 35-50 kt range through Wednesday.

Precip: The cold front stalls near the area on Wednesday as it becomes parallel to the mid/upper flow. Favorable upper jet position for QG forcing and a wide open Gulf suggest periods of heavy rainfall, with potential for flooding. NBM precip probs for Wednesday and Wednesday night generally show 70 to 80% probs of seeing at least 1" or greater amounts for this event south of I-40, with 40-60% north.

Thunderstorms: LREF joint probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and Bulk Shear > 40kts have dropped from previous runs, and are now around 25% south of I-40 (previously 40-60%). While CAPE continues to be a limiting factor in overall severe threat, but wind shear will be plenty. Biggest concern as of now continues to be locally gusty winds and heavy downpours with any stronger storms.

Cooler and drier conditions can be expected for the end of the week as a broad trough develops over the eastern Conus.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Light winds early will become southwest around 10kts with a few higher gusts, before becoming light again after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 54 79 62 / 0 0 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 54 79 61 / 0 0 10 60 Oak Ridge, TN 79 53 77 60 / 0 0 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 48 77 57 / 10 0 10 60

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.