textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Dry and unseasonably mild conditions are expected again today before a strong system approaches the area.

- Off and on mountain wave high winds are likely Thursday night into Friday morning and again on Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Multiple rounds of showers and embedded storms are expected from Friday into Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flooding.

- Seasonally colder conditions will return by Sunday into early next week with chances for high elevation snow showers on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Currently, ridging is moving in from the west with surface high pressure having shifted off to our east. Negatively tilted troughing is ejecting out of the Rockies with deepening surface low pressure moving off the High Plains. This initial setup will lead to a broadly strengthening low-level jet in the east and southerly flow locally. As high pressure remains nearby, unseasonably mild and dry conditions will linger through the day today. By later tonight, the system is expected to deepen to nearly 990mb and move into the Great Lakes Region. At the same time, a strong MSLP gradient and 850mb jet of 60 to 70 kts will be noted to our northwest. This will present the beginning of a likely mountain wave event with still limited rain chances due to initial downsloping and moisture. By late tonight into early Saturday morning, a secondary wave and low pressure system is expected to track just west of the area. This will enhance the low-level jet and mountain wave winds once again. The persistent southerly flow will also lead to a stream of moisture advection and multiple rounds of showers and embedded storms before the frontal boundary to our west arrives. With near January record high PWAT values of 1.5 inches and multiple rounds, localized flooding continues to be of concern. Regarding severe chances, the strong low-level jet does give some potential for strong winds to be brought down to the surface. However, the latest guidance continues to keep the warm sector well to our south. There is some possibility that the warm front could reach into possibly southeast Tennessee or southwest North Carolina on Saturday. But this looks to be more true to our east.

By Saturday evening, the associated cold front to our west is expected to be east of the region with deep troughing and much colder air. With northwesterly flow and lingering moisture, snow showers are possible along the higher terrain heading into Sunday. By Sunday night, high pressure will settle near the area, leading to strong radiational cooling and widespread temperatures dropping well into the 20s. High pressure will keep the region dry Monday and Tuesday with height rises allowing for somewhat of a warming trend. Deepening troughing is expected by the middle of the week with varying indications of another system to our north. Depending on how much moisture is present, a rain/snow mix will be possible, especially in the higher elevations. This will be something to watch.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Patchy dense fog near CHA will lift by mid morning. MVFR CIGs are expected at CHA tonight. TYS and TRI have VFR conditions and VFR conditions will continue there today and tonight. LLWS may be an issue late tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 60 67 60 / 0 20 90 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 57 68 59 / 0 10 80 100 Oak Ridge, TN 67 57 66 58 / 0 10 90 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 51 67 56 / 0 10 80 90

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Cherokee- Clay.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Bledsoe-Bradley-East Polk-Hamilton-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Sequatchie-Southeast Monroe-West Polk.

VA...NONE.