textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Dry conditions are expected through Thursday, along with a continued warming trend.

- Widespread rainfall is likely this weekend with locally heavy totals possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently, ridging is centered to our southwest with a closed low over the desert southwest. Surface high pressure remain in place across the eastern U.S., leading to continued dry weather. By Wednesday, ridging will expand in the east as the western closed low progresses into the southern Rockies. Height rises will continue the recent warming trend with most places rising well into the 80s to low 90s in the south. By Thursday, the closed low will eject into the Great Plains, leading to the development of an open wave low pressure system. Further height rises in the east will push 500mb heights to 5,900m or higher over the region, which are above the 90th percentile for this time of year. When combined with broad southerly low-level flow, this will make the case for further temperature increases, likely around 90 degrees for most southern and central valley areas.

By Friday, the closed low lift to our north with the surface low following the same trend. The frontal boundary from the initial low will gradually approach from the north and reach the area by Saturday. The flow, while still weak, will be southerly to southwesterly, bringing abundant moisture into the region. This is evidenced by PWAT values exceeding 1.6 inches, the 90th percentile for this time of year. As the front remains over the area Saturday and Sunday, persistent rain can be expected. This will be helpful for ongoing drought conditions in portions of the area, but locally heavy or persistent rain could increase potential of localized flooding. By early next week, milder and drier conditions are expected as high pressure from the north pushes the front to our south.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Overall, quiet aviation conditions are expected with limited cloud cover and light and variable winds through the day. The main question again will be development of fog at TRI with MVFR plus IFR TEMPO group maintained at this time. Otherwise, a similarly quiet day can be expected again tomorrow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 57 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.