textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Isolated mountain showers today, more widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into Tuesday, with low potential for some strong to severe storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Rain chances will finally begin to pick up beginning today. The incoming shortwave is still a day out, so forcing will be weak to nonexistent, but enough CAPE underneath a 500 mb inversion should allow for terrain forced showers to develop this afternoon, mainly in the mountains along the NC border, but I could see an isolated shower in the Plateau region as well. Won't rule out a lightning strike, but the inversion digs in right around the -10C layer, so storm depth into the favored ice crystal zones will be limited.

Shortwave riding in the westerly flow will really start to arrive for Saturday, unfortunately for those with outdoor activities planned. CAMs have been all over the place with how this unfolds, but generally a few steady rain showers will be likely in the mid to late morning hours. Then in the afternoon with the presence of the weak trough, the atmosphere really becomes favorable for scattered thunderstorms. There's some shear present, primarily speed shear, so a strong thunderstorm with breezy winds and small hail is a potential. Otherwise much needed rainfall will fall.

Sunday looks to be mainly a drying out day. Guidance has thin CAPE profiles, and with the suppressive midlevel ridge building back in, expect dry to mostly dry weather. The next shortwave will be moving across the upper tier of the country to start the week, with a punching subtropical jet extending across the Southern Plains. This is the focus of the SPC's extended outlook for Monday, with a large risk to our west. We're likely to get the sloppy seconds of whatever comes of that system, which in part depends on what occurs Sunday over the Southern Plains. Shear, especially low level shear, will be favorable for strong to severe, but timing is once again aiming to be in the evening or nighttime hours.

Beyond Tuesday morning, the subtropical jet enhancing westerlies will stay dominant through the week, possibly coupled with a slow moving frontal boundary, presenting our region with an unsettled pattern and keeping low to medium chances for rain in the for the remainder of the work week. Over the course of the next 7 days, 1 inch probabilities are fairly high area wide, and 2 inch probabilities are 20% Tri Cities, 40% Knoxville, 60% Chattanooga. If the heavier amounts can come to fruition that would be very beneficial for fighting the drought.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A quiet TAF period is expected with light and variable winds and limited cloud cover for the rest of the night and early morning. Throughout the day, southwesterly to westerly winds will increase with cloud cover generally between 5,000 and 10,000 feet AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 62 78 57 / 10 70 90 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 60 73 54 / 10 50 100 20 Oak Ridge, TN 83 60 73 54 / 10 60 90 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 55 71 51 / 10 20 90 40

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.