textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 715 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Warm and breezy today with near record to record high temperatures areawide.

- Storms this evening...Storms could be strong to severe, especially near the Cumberland plateau. A conditional low-end tornado threat will be in place.

- Cooler and drier conditions area-wide Thursday. Then, another warming trend is expected through the weekend.

- Another round of showers and storms will move in by late Sunday or Sunday night, followed by a surge of sub-freezing temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Currently another warm day ahead of the approaching strong front moving east near the Mississippi river. Ahead of this front we're getting strong ridging and winds out of the south/southwest helping to drive temperatures well above normal. Depending on when the front arrives we could see near record temperatures again today.

These warm temperatures, in addition to a strengthening LLJ along the front, will combine to bring a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening to the eastern Tennessee Valley. Current guidance is indicating that the line of storms from the west will move onto the Plateau between 4-7pm and continuing through the evening then weakening and/or moving east of the mountains by around midnight EDT. Area with the best environment to see severe thunderstorms will be along the plateau and westward right as the storms are moving in this evening. CAMs are indicating we'll see a good amount of surface based CAPE right at the front end of the event if storms are able to move in a bit quicker, possibly around 1,000+ J/kg at the peak in southeast TN. This does not last more than a couple of hours as the evening turns to night and we transition to more elevated instability, and at the same time it really drops off. This combined with a LLJ of 40+ knots will be the main driving factors behind the chance for severe thunderstorms. Still believe the primary threat is damaging straight line winds of 60+ mph, primarily along the Cumberland plateau and western edge of the Valley while there is still daylight and before the instability drops off. If storms are able to maintain their strength/structure into the central and eastern portion of the valley the LLJ will still be present and the wind threat will persist. While the threat for tornadoes is very low, the 30 knots of 0-1km shear, low level CAPE being present (for a time), and LCLs around or possibly below 1km indicate that the threat is present. Most CAMs do not indicate notable updraft helicity in the eastern Tennessee Valley, but the environment suggests that an isolated weak tornado cannot be ruled out... If the line of storms is able to move in faster than forecast the severe threat increases, but if it holds up even just a couple of hours slower, then the tornado threat (and overall severe threat) looks to decrease. Will need to be aware of the weather this evening for sure.

After the storms and front moves through we'll see a quick drop in temperatures on the backside, enough to possibly produce a brief window of snow, especially in the higher elevations early Thursday morning before sunrise. With the warm surface temperatures the past several days and the dry air moving in quickly behind the system, it's going to be hard to see any accumulations outside of the peaks of the mountains and ridge-lines. High temperatures will be a bit below normal for a change, topping out in the 50s in most valley locations.

Temperatures quickly warm back up Friday and into the weekend as we see southerly return flow... But not for long as a deep upper trough and cold front move into the area on Sunday/Sunday night, bringing another round of widespread rain and some storms. This system may also bring high winds across the mountains. The severe threat remains low at this point but we will continue to watch. Drier and significantly colder air will push in behind this front for Monday and Tuesday, with sub-freezing temperatures area-wide Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Line of showers and thunderstorms will move through this evening, quickly dropping flight conditions once the onset hits. Medium to high confidence on the timing, but lower confidence on the exact observations once it moves through. Expect rain to persist for hours after the initial line, with lower flight categories through most of the night.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 715 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Showers and a few storms will move through the area this evening. TEMPO MVFR conditions are expected at CHA and TYS through 03Z. MVFR ceilings and vis are then expected at all sites later tonight, followed by IFR at TYS and TRI. VFR conditions will return at all sites by late tomorrow morning to early afternoon. Gusty winds to around 20kts expected through the majority of the period, winds will transition from southwest to northerly through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 57 37 66 / 100 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 53 34 64 / 100 30 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 39 54 34 63 / 100 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 49 29 61 / 100 50 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.