textproduct: Morristown

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 123 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

- Another day of showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the evening with isolated to widely scattered coverage.

- Storm chances will not go away over the next several days, but the trend is to see longer and longer periods of dry weather and smaller windows of storms as we head into the back half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Rain chances to continue again today, but expecting even more isolated rain chances thanks to weak upper and surface level forcing. CAMs are depicting widely scattered to isolated coverage, with the southern valley and southern portion of the mountains most likely to see scattered convection. HRRR also depicts 20 to 30 knots of effective shear, but overall profiles suggest severe threat is once again very limited. A similar story will play out on Thursday, with perhaps even more limited convective coverage. Short of any storm falling exactly on top of our more saturated locations, flood threat is pretty limited but not zero, depending primarily on if a storm can quickly dump a lot of rainfall on already saturated ground.

Friday the GFS and Euro are coming into alignment with potentially more widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially in the southern half of the area. A stretched out piece of vorticity, coupled with the entrance to a jet streak and the nearby stationary front, may be enough to spawn a greater coverage of storms on Friday. Beyond Friday, we'll generally be in a warm gentle ridge, with remarkably flat temperature trends, and no clear sharp airmass change for just a little while longer. As we head out as far as midweek next week, a large upper trough will envelop portions of the Eastern US. Uncertainty regarding the trough coupled with a generally remnant moist airmass means low PoPs to cover for an isolated storm will remain.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

CIGs are mostly VFR but some low clouds are starting to develop. MVFR CIGs will be possible by morning especially near CHA. Some patchy fog is possible especially near TRI but dense fog is not expected. VFR conditions will return by mid morning. Showers and storms will be isolated to scattered mainly in the afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 66 84 66 / 50 30 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 65 82 63 / 70 70 70 10 Oak Ridge, TN 81 64 82 62 / 80 60 70 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 62 81 57 / 60 80 80 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.