textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake effect rain showers continue over mainly the eastern U.P. for the next few days. Expect little in the way of accumulations.

- Warmer today with southerly gales to 35 knots expected over northern Lake Michigan and east central Lake Superior.

- Cooler/more normal temperatures return for Thursday and Friday.

- Well above normal temperatures return for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Radar imagery early this morning shows light rainfall traversing from west to east across the Upper Peninsula, with temperatures in the mid 30s being seen ahead of the rainfall while temperatures rise into the mid to upper 40s behind the rain (see the 1z obs for an example). While the rain showers do look to fizzle out over the eastern U.P. later this morning, a low pressure dropping down from northern Canada into northern Ontario today could start up lake effect rain showers back over the eastern U.P. as early as this evening and as late as Wednesday. While the CAA behind this low doesn't look to be all that impressive, with at least one additional shot of CAA coming in Wednesday night/Thursday morning we can expect the light lake effect rain showers to continue through at least Thursday over the eastern U.P. In addition, there may be a rumble of thunder here and there within some of the showers as there is a little bit of CAPE in the boundary layer to work with. That being said, given that we will be under the warm sector of the aforementioned low today (as already being evidenced over the far west in the 1z obs) and can expect strong adiabatic lapse rates within the boundary layer on Wednesday, expect above normal temperatures during the daytime hours today and Wednesday, with highs getting into the mid 60s to even the lower 70s. In addition, the low will bring gusty southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph to the area today, with a few gusts up to 40 mph possible along the shorelines of the Great Lakes in the east. Once the CAA starts, expect gusty northwest winds to impact the U.P. Wednesday into Thursday; expect generally wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph on both of those days, although the winds on Thursday do look to be closer to the lower 20 mph.

While we should see high temperatures return to around normal (i.e. the 50s to lower 60s) for Thursday and Friday, expect well above normal temperatures to return to the U.P. by this upcoming weekend as a Clipper lifts off the Rockies and splits over the western U.S. and Canadian Prairies. This will set us up under a Southern Plains airmass, allowing for high temperatures to reach up well into the 70s across the area as lows only drop into the 50s Saturday night and 40s Sunday night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 737 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A few hours of LLWS are expected this morning at CMX and IWD before mixing allows winds to increase in the boundary layer. Southerly winds will become gusty today as low pressure tracks through Ontario. Expect gusts as high as 30kt from mid-morning through the afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening at IWD and SAW but remain gusty, to 20kt, at CMX overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Lake Superior: Southerly winds increase to 20 to 30 kts across the area this morning, with gales to 35 kts being seen over the eastern lake during the mid to late morning hours. As a low approaches from central Canada and northern Ontario today, expect winds to weaken to 20 kts or so from the west this evening before increasing back up to 20 to 25 kts Wednesday morning once CAA starts back up across the lake. Expect some lake effect rain showers over mainly the eastern half of the lake Wednesday through Thursday, with some lightning being possible at times given the small amounts of CAPE available in the boundary layer. While we could see some northwest gusts up to 30 kts Wednesday into Thursday, no gales are expected over Lake Superior from tonight through the rest of the work week; the REFS only has up to a 30% chance for seeing a northwest gale over 35 kts Wednesday into Thursday. As sfc high pressure ridging returns to the area Thursday night, expect the winds to slacken to 20 kts or less, staying that way until robust WAA brings southerly winds of 20 to 30 kts back across the lake on Saturday.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Winds pick up from the south and southwest today, eventually reaching to 30 kts to gales of 35 kts by this afternoon as a low approaches from northern Ontario. Expect the winds to weaken to 15 kts or less late tonight as they veer to the northwest. As CAA works down from Canada Wednesday and Thursday, expect northwest winds of 15 to 20 kts to continue until sfc high pressure ridging moving in late this week brings the winds back down to 15 kts or less again by Thursday evening. Expect the light winds to continue through Friday before strong WAA brings southerly winds of 20 to 30 kts back by Saturday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ248>250-266.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ248-250.