textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances (up to 40%) return to the southwestern U.P. Thursday evening into Friday morning.

- Above-average temperatures will persist through Labor Day Weekend, with high temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Current temperatures have warmed to the mid-70s along the lakeshore and low-80s inland this afternoon. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear tonight as drier air moves in behind the occluded front that passed eastward through the U.P. this morning. Lows will fall to the upper 50s near the lakeshore and the lower 50s to upper 40s inland, with generally calm winds across the CWA overnight. Tomorrow is expected to be pleasant, with highs in the mid-70s near the lakeshore and upper 70s to low 80s inland, light winds, and partly cloudy skies.

The next chance for precipitation, limited mainly to the southwestern U.P. is expected to occur Thursday evening into Friday morning as a shortwave trough passes across northern Wisconsin. At the present, the best chances for precipitation (around 40%) are expected to be near the WI/MI state line early Friday morning. However, there is still considerable uncertainty in the CAMs as to the exact timing and extent of precipitation for our area. Significant rainfall is not expected with these showers, as the probability of 0.25 inches of rain or more is only between 20-40%.

As the closed low over Ontario progresses eastward, it will be replaced by significant upper-level ridging over the central CONUS, resulting in northwest flow across the Great Lakes for the weekend. High temperatures are expected to remain above-normal in the mid to upper 70s at least through Sunday due to the influence of this ridging pattern. Early next week brings the next best chance for precipitation, with current model guidance indicating a 40-60% chance of at least 0.25 inches of rain by 8am Wednesday, however, uncertainty is still high at this time for the timing and extent of precipitation. Breezy conditions are anticipated as this system moves through. NBM probabilities of wind gusts at or above 40mph are between 30-60% in the Keweenaw, highest on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions expected through most of the period as surface high pressure gradually builds over Lake Superior and Upper Michigan from the north. Breezy west winds occasionally gusting to 15-20 kt at KCMX this afternoon will diminish this evening, with light winds expected overnight at all sites. Latest guidance continues to hint at patchy fog formation over parts of the central and eastern UP tonight. Opted to include a period of IFR visibility at KSAW 06-12z Thu. Would expect any fog to quickly dissipate and improve back to VFR Thu morning.

MARINE

Issued at 239 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Lake Superior: Winds generally remain under 15 kts through Thursday as a low departs to the northeast. High pressure builds over Ontario and troughing deepens over the Northern Plains, resulting in a tighter pressure gradient over the west half of the lake. This yields periods of east to northeast winds of 15-25 kts late Thursday through Friday over the western waters. Stronger high pressure overhead keeps winds light (20 kts or less) lakewide through the weekend, then 20-30 kt winds return next week with a more prominent system lifting to the northeast of Lake Superior. Wave heights are largely expected to remain at 3ft or less through the weekend, increasing to 2-6ft as winds increase early next week.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Winds generally remain 15 kts or lower through this weekend as high pressure slowly builds overhead. A more prominent system lifting northeast over Manitoba and northwest Ontario early next week increases winds to around 15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts. Wave heights are expected to remain below 1ft through the weekend, increasing to 2-4ft with increasing winds early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.