textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly temperatures expected tonight, with lows well down into 40s across much of the interior UP. Frost is not expected.

- Dry weather continues through Monday as high temperatures rebound into the 80s over much of the area.

- The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

GOES visible satellite shows mostly clear skies across Upper Michigan this afternoon as surface high pressure extends over the area from northern Ontario and low pressure over the Ohio River Valley continues to pull farther away from the region. This supports a pleasant day in dry northerly flow across the area, with temperatures mainly in the 70s aside from some 60s along the Lake Superior shoreline. Tonight will be one of the chillier nights of the summer so far as clear skies, a dry airmass, and diminishing winds support optimal radiational cooling processes and allow temps to drop well into the 40s across much of the interior UP. Do not expect temps to be quite cold enough for consideration of any frost headlines, but would certainly not be surprised to see a few sheltered locations dip into the upper 30s for a brief time tonight. Locations near the shorelines will stay a bit warmer in the low to mid 50s.

Dry weather will continue into Monday as upper level ridging builds into the Great Lakes from the northern Plains, with rising 500 mb heights and 850 mb temps increasing to 16-18 C supporting highs jumping back into the low to mid 80s for much of the area Monday afternoon. This will also allow overnight lows to return back to seasonal norms in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday night.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes on Tuesday as a shortwave trough swings through northwest Ontario and drives a surface cold front through the UP. This does not appear to be a slam dunk as the best forcing looks to remain north of the area, but can reasonably expect at least some shower activity during the day on Tuesday. The best chance for a strong thunderstorm will likely be over the western and southcentral UP where instability looks to be maximized, but overall severe potential looks to be on the low side as bulk shear remains marginal (30-35 kt). SPC subsequently only has the UP in a general thunderstorm risk for now, but will continue to monitor as the finer details come into clearer focus in the coming days. Heavy rainfall concerns also appear to be rather minimal given the quick hitting nature of the system, as NBM probs currently only depict a 10-20% chance for a wetting rainfall of at least a quarter inch across the area through Tuesday night. Still, will continue to monitor as PWATS briefly spike back up above 1.5" on Tuesday.

Temperatures fall back into the 70s on Wednesday behind the front, but look to quickly rebound back into the 80s on Thursday as additional systems bring more chances for precipitation from Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions are projected to continue across all of the TAF sites the rest of today into early Monday afternoon. However, there is a low (30% or less) chance that some patchy FG develops over SAW late tonight/early Monday morning (around 10z or so). That being said, even if this should occur, conditions should return to VFR at SAW by the late morning hours at the absolute latest (this is the worst- case scenario). Light NE/E'rly winds this afternoon give way to light S'rly winds by Monday morning, being pretty much calm tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

High pressure keeps winds below 20 kts through Monday as dry weather persists over the region. Showers and thunderstorm are expected with the arrival of a cold front on Tuesday, but there remains uncertainty as to the coverage and strength of the storms. Southerly winds increase to 15-20 kt ahead of this feature on Monday night, potentially bringing some small craft headlines to Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan nearshores on Tuesday as winds turn southwesterly and gust to 25 kt. Winds drop back below 20 kt Tuesday night behind the front, likely staying below 20 kts the remainder of the week (70% chance). Could see additional chances for showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.