textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light freezing drizzle and or rain/snow mix is possible Tuesday morning (15-30% chance).

- Warmer than normal temperatures this week. Highs in the upper 30s to low 50s Tuesday onward. Lows near or just above freezing late in the week.

- Mostly dry weather until Friday and Saturday when widespread rain chances return (~60% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly cloudy skies overhead the UP as weak isentropic ascent occurs with a shortwave skirting through Ontario. Breezy southwest winds have allowed temps to lift into the upper 20s and low 30s across the region. Further east, light snow showers and or flurries are being observed where a band of lake effect snow showers is emanating off of Lake Michigan. Suspect nothing more than light snow/flurries will be the case through the afternoon given the current lack of radar reflectivity and fairly dry low level thermal profiles seen on E UP soundings. Otherwise, expect quiet weather through the remainder of the night with lows falling back into the 20s and teens.

Tomorrow morning, weak synoptic lift and isentropic upglide might be able to squeeze out enough moisture to produce light freezing drizzle and or flurries before temps warm up enough for precipitation type to become light rain or rain-snow mix. Confidence on overall precipitation occurrence is low, as hi-res soundings all depict varying degrees of low and midlevel saturation. Regardless, thinking any precip should be low impact unless freezing drizzle lingers longer than expected at any one location. Afternoon temperatures should bounce back into the low 40s to upper 30s, though may come in on the low end given widespread cloud cover.

Continuing zonal flow keeps weather quiet and dry on Wednesday while strong high pressure sets up over eastern Canada. A developing lake breeze may complicate the temp forecast by the lakeshores. Generally highs in the 40s to mid 50s are expected. Meanwhile, a trough will be tracking from the Plains on Wednesday to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. This sends a weak low pressure system along the southern end of the Great Lakes. Precip with this system may graze the southern and southeastern UP on Thursday with light rain (15-30% chance).

A deeper low pressure system lifts through Friday into Saturday, likely bringing widespread rain. Deterministic and ensemble guidance still highlights high uncertainty in the track, strength, and overall timing of this system. Due to this uncertainty, the 25-75th percentiles of 24hr NBM QPF ending Saturday morning range from 0.05" to 0.75" here across the central UP. With expected snowmelt this week, the high end potential of the QPF forecast may point to rain- on-snowpack ponding and minor flooding issues should it verify.

Temps over the next several days will warm into the 40s to low 50s with lows near or just above freezing. With Tds also warming above freezing, especially on Friday, expect snowmelt during this warmer than normal stretch. Forecasted temps are 10-30 degrees above normal, highest anomalies noted at night.

The warm pattern likely continues into the first half of next week. Guidance has been pointing to a more significant precip bearing system mid to late next week as a trough moves from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes supplied with plenty of Gulf moisture. Too much spread remains to determine p-types and amounts, but will monitor this period given the range of possible impacts.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR settle in from west to east tonight as a weak disturbance moves through. There is still around a 20% chance for some light drizzle/freezing drizzle across the area Tue morning as the lower levels of the atmosphere become saturated. This also comes with a further lowering in ceilings to IFR a CMX and potentially IWD during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, expect MVFR to persist through the rest of the forecast period, with an improvement to VFR at IWD before 06Z Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 1254 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Breezy southwest winds are ongoing this afternoon. A Gale Warning remains in effect through this evening. Winds fall below 20 kts from west to east tonight. Southerly winds on Tuesday and Wednesday will remain below 20 kts with a brief period of west winds Tuesday night. Easterly winds of 15-25 kts are expected late this week. The next shot for winds between 20-30 kts holds off until the weekend when a low pressure lifts through the Great Lakes.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.