textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue early this week.

- An impactful winter storm will move into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Potential impacts include heavy snow, strong winds, and possible mixed precipitation, depending on the track and strength of the system.

- A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Keweenaw, north central, and east Tuesday night through Wednesday. This may be expanded into the south central depending on the storm track.

- Another low pressure system could bring impactful winter weather to the U.P. on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Expect some snow melt to continue across the area this afternoon as dewpoints above freezing work in tandem with temperatures in the upper 30s to around 50F across the area. However, after the warm weather today, expect fog and freezing fog to develop back across much of the area tonight as we cool back down below freezing and to the dewpoint; depending on how long it takes for the fog/freezing fog to form tonight, we could see lows get into the 20s to even teens. As we move into Tuesday, clouds begin to develop across the area beginning in the upper levels as a low pressure system lifts off the Rockies and moves into the Northern Plains; expect the above normal temperatures to continue across the area on Tuesday as highs get into the 30s to potentially around 40 along the Wisconsin border.

The 'main attraction' of the forecast looks to begin impacting Upper Michigan Tuesday night as the warm front of the previously mentioned low begins to move overhead and becomes stationary over us throughout the overnight to Wednesday morning time period. This is because as the low lifts through the Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night it weakens with time, with a shortwave developing and moving ahead of it into Lower Michigan at around 995mb by Wednesday. While there is high certainty amongst the varying guidances that we will see precipitation Tuesday night through Wednesday across the area, where high uncertainty still remains is on the precipitation type throughout Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. We may see multiple precip-type changes throughout the overnight hours into Wednesday morning as temperatures oscillate a couple of degrees near freezing aloft (and at the sfc over the south central and portions of the west); the potential multiple changes in precip-type are likely due to dynamic cooling fighting the incoming warm, moist air from the Gulf. Heavier precipitation rates could cool the profiles to or just below freezing, allowing for heavy, wet snow to reach the sfc. That being said, the incoming warm, moist Gulf air will try warm temperatures aloft, potentially changing snowfall back over to sleet or freezing rain at times, especially over the central U.P. where the highest uncertainty remains. Overall, the guidance has trended down to two general solutions for the track of the low and where the front will set up Tuesday night into Wednesday. Following most of the ensemble and deterministic guidance the front generally sets up shop a little further north, bringing the highest snowfall and precipitation totals to the north central, east, and Keweenaw. For example, the European ensemble EFI is highlighting a "high boom" potential for snowfall and precipitation amounts Tuesday night through Wednesday over these areas, showing QPF and snowfall amounts approaching the max of modeled climatology. However, the AI GEFS, the European ensembles, and Canadian suite still show the highest precipitation and snowfall amounts a little further south, mainly in the south central U.P. instead. Therefore, the highest precipitation and snow totals will be dependent on the where the stationary front sets up Tuesday night into Wednesday morning; if the AI solutions were to come to fruition, expect the highest snow totals to be seen over Delta, Dickinson, and Menominee counties instead of the Keweenaw, north central, and east, with the precip type mostly being snowfall across Upper Michigan.

Overall, this could be an impactful winter weather event where travel could be very difficult and some power outages could be seen across the area. While the blowing snow threat is somewhat mitigated due to the system snowfall being fairly wet (around a 6-10:1 snow-to- liquid ratio), with moderate to heavy snowfall rates expected we could see the strong easterly wind gusts of 40 to even 50 mph over the Keweenaw bring areas of blowing snow to Upper Michigan, which could reduce visibilities even more than what the snowfall rates will cause (1/2 mile or less in moderate snowfall, 1/4 mile or less in heavy snowfall); the areas where the blowing snow threat is the highest is along the Keweenaw and Marquette County. With the winds being strong from the east with this event, we may see some power outages given the not-too-common wind direction. Thus, we may see a few tree branches break off and come down on powerlines across portions of the area.

Eventually, expect the stationary front over us to occlude on Wednesday and push northwards. This will in turn change the precip type to all snowfall, with most of the snowfall becoming relegated to the east-wind upslopes of Marquette County and the Keweenaw, where some moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall could be seen from time to time. As the forcing weakens across the area Wednesday night, expect the snowfall to lighten, with some spots transitioning over to freezing drizzle as the moisture aloft gets lost and the lower levels fail to reach the DGZ. However, another winter storm could move over the area around Friday as a Colorado low lifts through the Plains into northern Lake Michigan; there may be several inches of wet snowfall with this second system too. Behind this, expect more 'winter-like' conditions as a shot of reinforcing cold air drops down from Canada and potentially brings more light snowfall over us this upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

LIFR visibilities and cigs will impact SAW early this morning, but will only carry a tempo mention for MVFR/IFR fog at IWD and CMX. After fog dissipates later this morning, expect a prolonged period of VFR conditions into this evening. But, that is when the next storm system will begin to overspread the region, resulting in additional flight restrictions. Initial ptype could be a wintry mix of -fzrasn before transitioning to all snow by Wed 06Z. And, LLWS will be a main threat with forecast soundings hinting at 65 to 70kts below 2k feet. This could be a tad overdone, but will definitely be impactful.

MARINE

Issued at 347 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue tonight into Tuesday morning as weak ridging remains overhead. However, a low pressure moving through the Northern Plains and Lower Michigan Tuesday and Wednesday will bring strong easterly winds of gales to 40 knots to potentially storm force winds to 50 knots across Lake Superior Tuesday night through Wednesday. The winds look to weaken Wednesday night into Thursday as remnant troughing hangs around the Arrowhead; however, gales to 35 knots are still possible Wednesday night, with winds generally being 20 to 30 knots across Lake Superior on Thursday. Another low pressure system, this time from Colorado, lifts through the Central Plains and into northern Lake Michigan on Friday. As this occurs, expect the winds to once again increase over Lake Superior, with winds becoming east to northeasterly across the lake Thursday night through Friday; as of the time of this writing, the NBM brings a 15 to 30% chance for gales up to 35 knots across the lake Thursday night through Friday. As a shortwave low rotates into the area this upcoming weekend, expect the winds to only slowly weaken with time from Friday into this weekend as winds back more to the north and northwest, eventually becoming 20 to 25 knots by Saturday.

While no heavy freezing spray is expected, we may see some freezing spray across the lake Tuesday night through Wednesday, and again on Friday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Wednesday evening for MIZ001-003>005.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for MIZ006-007-013-014-085.

Lake Superior... Storm Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday evening for LSZ162.

Gale Watch from late tonight through late Wednesday night for LSZ242>250-263>266.

Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon for LMZ248-250.