textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A southeastward moving cold front brings light mixed precipitation (mainly rain transitioning to snow) early this morning. Light snow showers linger in the west and central UP today.

- A somewhat active pattern continues into the work week with multiple systems bringing additional precipitation chances to the Upper Great Lakes.

- Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures should limit and slow down the snowmelt across the area this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery and regional remote sensing tools reveal a backdoor cold front sliding south-east across the UP. A stripe of light mixed precip (both rain and snow being observed here at WFO MQT as of writing this discussion) is working across the west and central. As this continues its SE passage early this morning, a brief period of light freezing rain may be seen before transitioning to snow. Impacts look to be slim to none as this cold front will have departed the UP before sunrise. Regardless, heads up for any slick spots if traveling this Sunday morning!

Behind the frontal passage, cool northerly flow into the upslope areas of the west and central UP will force light snow showers through the morning and afternoon hours. Accumulating snow is expected to be generally less than one inch, if not less than a half an inch. Otherwise, daytime highs will be markedly cooler today with the northern tier of the UP struggling to break freezing. Communities in the south-central and eastern UP look to reach the low to mid 30s. As 850 temps cool to near -13C this tonight, a brief uptick in lake effect snow showers may be seen across the north to northwest wind snowbelts, though lake induced eq heights in bufkit soundings only punch 3-5 kft with plenty of dry air entrainment into a shallow DGZ, so not thinking any more than light showers with little to no accumulation. Save for some lingering lake effect showers, high pressure settling atop the Great Lakes / Midwest keeping quiet and dry weather in through Monday.

Expect an active pattern for next week as a mid-level high builds then breaks down over the western U.S. throughout the next several days, allowing more zonal flow to translate multiple clipper shortwave lows into the area, with the next one looking to arrive around the Tuesday time period. Wet snow appears to be the dominant precip type early Tuesday morning with a quick 1-2" accumulation. More attention may need to be given to the Thursday/Friday timeframe where guidance hints at a more compact clipper and tighter pressure gradient that may drive additional travel impacts in gusty winds and falling snow. Latest NBM doesn't bode well for much snow, only pointing at 20-40% chance for >2".

With temperatures this week projected to be near to slightly below normal, expect the flooding concerns to diminish across the area. While some snow melt is expected, the melt will be slower and more limited than the past couple of days as lows reach below freezing and highs will struggle to get above freezing on some days (although the high sun angle will still help to melt the snowpack on sunnier days, even if the temperatures fail to completely get above freezing).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 750 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Radar shows widespread precipitation winding down across Upper Michigan this morning as a cold front drops south of the area, with IFR/low end MVFR conditions lingering at the terminals. Conditions will show gradual improvement towards prevailing MVFR by early afternoon and eventually to VFR this evening as surface high pressure promotes clearing skies. North winds will continue to gust to 20-25 kt at the terminals through this morning before diminishing during the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Northerly winds 20-30 kts will be common this morning behind a passing back door cold front. There is over a 20% chance for gales up to 34 knots this morning. Winds die down to 20 knots or less by this evening as high pressure ridging builds into the region.

The light winds are expected to continue until another Clipper low approaches the area Monday night. As it does so, expect winds to pick up from the south and southwest, with up to a 25% chance of getting up to low-end gales over the eastern lake. After the Clipper low moves through around the Tuesday time period, expect winds to veer northwest/northerly and to decrease behind the low before increasing from the north to northeast late Tuesday via the back- door cold front; expect freezing spray to return to the lake Tuesday night with the stronger winds, potentially becoming heavy at spots. As a shortwave low lifts from the Rockies and another Clipper digs towards the Upper Great Lakes by the middle of next week, expect the winds to become easterly on Wednesday. As the winds continue to veer, expect them to generally become southerly Wednesday night before becoming northwesterly/northerly behind the Clipper low on Thursday; there is currently up to a 40% chance for gales Wednesday night into Thursday, and freezing spray is once again expected to return to the lake on Thursday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.