textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Benign weather and near normal temps close out the week, resulting in a gradual snowmelt and river rises.

- Active weather resumes late this weekend along while temperatures warm even further. A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of rain showers and potential thunderstorms will accelerate river rises.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Morning RAP analysis has broad midlevel troughing over the Great Lakes, anchored by surface low pressure currently over northern Illinois. Associated WAA rain and snow showers have been able to graze Menominee county tonight, and with some weak reflectivity still extending further north across the central and eastern UP, will not rule out some sprinkles or flurries with surface temperatures in the mid and upper 30s. Otherwise, satellite reveals plenty of low cloud cover in the wake of the thicker midlevel cloud cover streaming northward from the Lower Midwest system.

Lingering cloud cover clears out from west to east today as high pressure currently over the Dakotas expands eastward into the Great Lakes. Temperatures rebound into the 40s, and soundings support dewpoints mixing out fairly nicely across the central and western UP this afternoon; pockets of RH in the upper 30% range will be possible, but winds remain light. Expect temperatures to fall back into the 20s under mostly clear skies tonight. The mid level ridge moves overhead on Saturday as troughing digs over the west coast, with one last dry day expected before our period of wet weather kicks off. Temperatures turn even warmer, peaking in the 50s for most. Meanwhile, strengthening southerly flow over the Plains solidifies a Gulf connection which will be pertinent to the forecast into early next week as it remains persistent with its warm air and moisture advection into the region. See the Hydrology section for a deeper dive on temps, dew point temps, and the flooding risks due to the combination of resulting snowmelt and precip.

Strong isentropic ascent and WAA kick off showers Saturday night from the south, which continue into Sunday. Thunderstorm potential increases Sunday afternoon as sufficient bulk shear is accompanied by increasing instability (several hundred to 1000j/kg of MUCAPE by Sunday night). PWATs in excess of 1 inch with stronger convective showers and storms support potential for heavy rainfall Saturday night to Sunday night. The going forecast reflects widespread 0.75- 1.0in amounts, highest over the eastern half of the UP. Ensembles also point to around a 40-50% chance for rainfall totals in excess of an inch, particularly over the eastern UP. Additional chances for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms accompany trailing systems into mid next week with decreasing confidence on timing/track. That said, overall confidence in at least minor flooding is increasing due to the combination of warming temps and frequent heavy precip potential.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions to initially prevail early this morning. However, as a system passes to the south over WI and Lower MI tonight, a 70-80% chance of MVFR cigs returns by Fri 09Z. Any precipitation should remain south of the terminals, though, and have opted to keep mention out of TAFs. Cigs will trend back to VFR at IWD and CMX by mid to late morning and by afternoon at SAW. Light and variable winds will eventually become west-northwesterly in the 5 to 10 kt range.

MARINE

Issued at 243 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

High pressure building over the region will keep winds below 20kts today through Saturday, with mainly NW winds today backing to the SW tonight, then over to the SE Saturday afternoon.

Southeast winds increase Saturday night as a low pressure develops off the Northern Rockies and high pressure gives way to the east. An associated warm front lifting through also brings showers and thunderstorms. Expect winds of 20-30 kts over the eastern two thirds of the lake by early Sunday morning, continuing into Sunday afternoon. A 30-50% chance for gales to 35kts is present over the eastern half of the lake Sunday morning into the afternoon.

Winds briefly fall back below 20kts across the lake Monday morning, but increase to 25-30kts out of the NE Monday night into Tuesday as a low pressure system moves towards the Great Lakes; chances for gales are much lower, remaining 15% or less with this event. The active period continues through at least mid next week as a third system keeps winds elevated to the 20-30kt range.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 359 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A slow snow melt gives way to accelerated melting this weekend as the snowpack becomes ripe for melting (snowpack temperature reaching freezing) and rain chances increase. River rises are expected this weekend into early next week given the expected rainfall and favorable melting conditions.

Expect limited melting through Friday as temperatures rise into the 40s, but low dew points primarily below freezing and temperatures falling below freezing at night mitigate melting.

The remainder of the weekend into early next week sees a fairly persistent Gulf connection into the Great Lakes, bringing warm and moist air into the region. Temperatures warm up on Saturday into the mid 40s to mid 50s with widespread dewpoint temperatures just eclipsing freezing. Temperatures broadly remain above freezing Saturday night...beginning a prolonged period of above freezing temperatures and dew point temperatures.

Sunday and Monday are the focus of highest temperatures, with forecasts ranging 10 to 20 degrees above normal (Normal Highs: 40s to low 50s, Normal Lows: 20s to 32) as parts of the UP get placed underneath the warm sector. The NBM currently has highs in the 50s and 60s, warmest in the interior west on Sunday and in the south- central on Monday. There is a 20 to 40% chance of exceeding 70 near the WI/MI state line on Sunday and a 40 to 60% chance in the south- central on Monday. Lows are expected in the 40s to mid 50s Sunday night and mid 30s to mid 40s Monday night (15 to 30 degrees above normal Sunday night!). During this period dewpoint temperatures soar into the mid 40s to mid 50s Sunday, remaining elevated into Monday night. Winds around 10-15 mph will support heat transfer near the surface, increasing snow melt efficiency.

With this warmth and moisture comes showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation could be heavy at times, with the NBM showing 25-55% chances for above 1 inches in 24 hours ending 8 PM EDT Sunday. Stronger storms may bring amounts of 1.25 to 2 inches in 24 hours reflected in the NBM 75th to 90th percentiles. A second round of showers and possibly thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday brings mean rainfall amounts between 0.5 to 1 inch of rain with stronger showers/storms reaching up to 1.25 to 1.6 inches of rainfall. Additional precipitation is anticipated into mid next week.

All these factors lead to accelerated rate of snowmelt and increasing likelihood of ponding of water on low-lying/poor drainage areas as well as minor river flooding. Moderate river flooding is possible on the Paint River near Crystal Falls and the Sturgeon River near Alston (~25% chance). See the latest River Flood Statements for additional information. Those living near and planning to recreate around the rivers and low-lying areas of the U.P. early next week should keep up with the forecast and river levels as the snowmelt and rainfall amounts will determine flooding potential.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.