textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather expected into the rest of the weekend behind today's passing cold front.

- Patchy dense fog is possible tonight through sunrise.

- Widespread rain chances return Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals a slow moving closed low hovering atop the Sask-Manitoba border, reflecting a ~998mb sfc low just west of Lake Winnipeg. This system's cold/occluded front is tracking eastward through the east-central UP as of writing this discussion, providing the necessary forcing for light rain showers. Temperatures have remained cooler than forecast across the west half, largely sticking in the mid to low 40s. As this front continues to pass east and areas of sunshine return to the west half, temps may rebound into the mid 40s to low 50s, but that will largely be contingent on how fast clouds can scatter. Otherwise, given cool northerly flow and decreasing winds, expecting low temps to fall into the 30s and low 40s tonight. Lingering low level moisture may allow the development for patchy fog tonight, though confidence is low regarding the spatial extent and persistent through sunrise.

Heading into the rest of the weekend, local ridging and height rises keep things warm and dry with daytime highs warming into the 50s (40s lakeshores) tomorrow and 60s (50s lakeshores) Sunday. Bufkit soundings show modest inverted-v profiles across the interior west both tomorrow and Sunday afternoon, suggesting efficient drying taking place. Medium range ensembles paint a 30-60% chance for RHs falling below 35% closer to the WI/UP stateline. Forecaster uncertainty regarding how low RHs fall remains somewhat high considering recent wetting rain, however, recent dry days have certainly ended up drier than expected. So if enough sunshine is present and temps soar greater than the NBM suggests, more widespread RHs 25-35% are not out of the question. That said, there are little to no fire weather concerns at the moment as winds are expected to be on the lighter side, mixing 10-15 kts each afternoon.

Medium and long range guidance is in good agreement that a more substantial shortwave will emerge out of the southern Rockies Monday, lifting through the Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes by Monday night. Ample moisture (PWATs in the 97.5th percentile of NAEFS climo) and isentropic ascent in the warm sector of a deepening sfc low will result in widespread precipitation overnight through Tuesday afternoon. Latest ensembles suggest a 40-60% chance for rainfall >0.5" across the west half of the UP, especially closer to the stateline. At this time, confidence is low regarding the northward extent of elevated instability and embedded thunderstorm potential. Interested parties should remain in tune with future forecast packages as flooding concerns surrounding high rivers are expected to continue.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 822 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions have returned to IWD this evening, but the MVFR cigs continue at both CMX and SAW. In addition, will carry MVFR/IFR fog at both CMX and SAW early tomorrow morning due to clearing skies, light winds, and rececent rainfall. Will likely add to IWD as well with next TAF issuance. Winds will be light and variable.

MARINE

Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Breezy west to northwest winds 15-25 kts behind a passing cold front diminish below 15 kts lake wide tonight, lasting through the rest of the weekend thanks to a weak pressure gradient and high pressure ridging. A more substantial low pressure system is slated to lift into the northern Great Lakes Monday night resulting in two periods of gales through Tuesday. The first period starts Monday night with strong southerly to southeasterly winds in the warm sector of the surface low. The second period comes behind the cold front as strong cold air advection and modest pressure rises result in westerly gales Tuesday afternoon. At this time, NBM probabilities for gales only peak at 50% for both periods, but given the pressure gradient seen in deterministic solutions, I believe those probabilities to be on the low end. The Euro ENS suggests chance for gusts >35 kts in the 70-90% range, which matches pattern recognition a bit better. More details will come with future forecast packages.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.