textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures settle over the region tomorrow through the weekend, with highs above freezing each day.

- A series of winter storm system may impact the Great Lakes next week. Uncertainty remains high at this time regarding the track of the systems and impacts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Satellite water vapor imagery and model analysis this afternoon showed northwest flow over the Upper Great Lakes with ridging over the western U.S and troughing over New England. Lake effect cloudiness and snow showers had diminished through the day over the east but still some clouds and flurries lingered. Temperatures had warmed into the mid 20s to low 30s central and east with mid 30s to low 40s over the interior west. In fact, the interior west was the coldest area in the U.P this morning, with lows of 0 to 10 below zero but is now sitting at the warmest area in the U.P. The temperature swing at the RAWS stations in Wakefield and Watersmeet so far today is an impressive 49 degrees!

Through this weekend a broad trough over the central and western U.S will become relatively zonal over the northern tier of the U.S. Multiple shortwaves will move through southern Canada through the weekend dragging weak frontal boundaries through the U.P though appreciable precipitation is not expected. Thereafter ridging over the western U.S will break down allowing a series of stronger systems to move into the western U.S and track east across the CONUS. This will provide chances for widespread precipitation over parts of the Great Lakes.

Tonight a weak shortwave will pass through Ontario and into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday night. A few snow showers will be possible in the far eastern U.P on Friday morning as the shortwave skirts the area. On Friday abundant sunshine and westerly flow will bring temperatures well above average, into the 30s and 40s, parts of Menominee County could approach 50F. When with the NBM 90Pct as we often will overachieve high temperatures with the higher sun angle under these weather conditions, except over the east and Keweenaw where onshore flow will keep things cooler. During the afternoon on Friday guidance suggests a frontal boundary will accelerate south across the lake in into the central and eastern U.P, aided by a developing lake breeze. This could bring temperatures back down into the 30s from Marquette and east around 2pm. Reflectivity fields in the CAMs and soundings support at least a chance for light snow showers, or possibly drizzle with lack of ice, as the front pushes onshore. Temperatures Friday night will fall back into the teens over the interior and low 20s lakeside.

Overall Saturday through Monday the NBM maintains dry weather along with daytime temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s, warmest south with generally light winds. NBM probabilities for highs above freezing are in the 90%+ range. However, there are a few outlier solutions that keep the northern tier a bit colder on Saturday and Sunday.

On Saturday the GFS and NAM show strong subsidence resulting in a strengthening inversion, with low level moisture forming a low status deck at/below the inversion over the central and eastern U.P. As a result these models struggle to get temperatures out of the upper 20s to low 30s. On Sunday both the GFS and NAM keep temperatures in the low 30s over the northern half of the U.P as northwest winds develop behind another weak front associated with a shortwave passing to the north over Ontario.

While these colder solutions seem like reasonable possibilities given that models have a hard time resolving low level moisture/stratus in these conditions, will keep with the NBM at this point but certainly something to keep an eye on.

Tuesday through late in the week guidance suggests a strong baroclinic zone will set up and multiple storm system will eject from the Rockies and head east towards the Great Lakes. Confidence remains very low at this time in how these systems will evolve.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected for all sites during the 18Z TAF period. Could see FEW diurnal MVFR cigs at SAW, but no flight category change is forecast. South-southwest winds increase tonight, becoming west by Friday afternoon with some gusts around 20 kts at CMX/SAW.

MARINE

Issued at 324 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Southerly winds will strengthen to 25 kts tonight as a low pressure moves through Ontario. A cold front will push through on Friday shifting winds to the northwest, relaxing below 20 kts in the west but still maintaining 25 kts in the east until Friday night when winds fall below 15 kts. Winds remain below 20 kts through the weekend, southerly on Saturday and shifting back to the northwest on Sunday. Winds become southerly again on Monday before shifting easterly on Tuesday, with gales possible (30-40% chance) by Wednesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.