textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Impactful lake effect snow continues into tonight, with additional accumulations of up to 4 inches in the east and 2 inches in the west. Blowing snow and reduced visibility down to 1/2 mile will also make travel hazardous.

- Coldest air of the season, and since January 2019, will continue to create dangerous cold conditions through at least Saturday morning across Upper Michigan as temperatures remain below zero for most of the UP.

- Temperatures between -10F and -25F are expected again tonight, with wind chills of -30F to -40F continuing through Saturday morning.

- Those with outdoor plans, especially through Saturday morning should take extra precautions to limit their time outside. Do not forget pets!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

GOES water vapor imagery reveals little change in the upper level pattern this afternoon as broad troughing continues to encompass much of North America, anchored by a deep 500 mb low over Quebec and being reinforced by multiple embedded shortwaves dropping down through the Canadian Prairie and the Upper Midwest. This maintains a frigid air mass over the region, with latest SPC mesoanalysis continuing to indicate 850 mb temperatures around -30C over Lake Superior and the UP. Surface temps have remained below zero across most of the UP today as a result, with a few spots in the west failing to climb above -10F. Meanwhile, lake effect snow is continuing to impact the northwest wind snow belts as evidenced by latest radar and GOES Day Cloud Phase imagery, with surface observations continuing to indicate near-blizzard conditions along the Keweenaw and also areas of the eastern UP east of Munising. Extended the Winter Storm Warning for the Keweenaw another 6 hours through 1 AM as latest Hi-Res guidance suggest lake effect will keep going strong through the evening hours, with winds gusting to around 25 mph continuing to produce areas of blowing snow. Extended the warning in the east through 7 AM using the same rationale as guidance keeps similar snowfall rates and gusty winds going through the early morning hours. Left the ongoing advisory in place from Ontonagon-Baraga through 7 PM as CAMs depict snow shifting away from those areas, but will continue to monitor those areas for a potential extension based on observational trends. Winter weather conditions should improve more substantially during the day on Saturday as lake effect temporarily comes to an end and winds diminish with the arrival of surface high pressure.

Cold weather headlines remain on track as temperatures will fall below -25F across the much of the interior west again tonight, with lows generally between -10 and -20F for the rest of the UP. This will produce wind chills as low as -40F across the west and -30F across the central and eastern UP through Saturday morning, maintains the Extreme Cold Warning through 10 AM EST/9 AM CST Saturday. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the same period for Luce County, where wind chills will be closer to -25F. Expect conditions to slightly improve through the day on Saturday as winds diminish and temperatures climb back into the single digits above zero in the afternoon. That said, will still need to monitor the potential for additional cold weather headlines Saturday night into Sunday morning as lows again dip well below zero, albeit with less winds.

The extended forecast does not offer much if any relief from the cold as ensemble cluster analysis continues to depict a highly amplified pattern characterized by persistent deep troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS while a stout upper level ridge builds over the west. This will keep forecast highs in the single digits to teens across the UP through the end of next week while overnight lows continue to flirt with below zero readings through the period. In terms of precipitation, another clipper type system arrives Monday night, with lake effect redeveloping in northwest flow behind that into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 621 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Lake effect snow is lifting through the WNW wind snowbelts tonight, primarily impacting CMX through the rest of the TAF period. There, visibilities <2 mi with periods of <1/2 mi are expected. Elsewhere skies have cleared nicely at IWD and SAW and should remain so through the majority of this TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 344 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Gales have dropped off across central and eastern Lake Superior as of mid Friday afternoon, but northwest winds will continue to gust to 20-25 kt through tonight. This will maintain Small Craft Advisories in the nearshore waters as wave heights subside below 4 ft in the west by Saturday morning and then in the east by Saturday afternoon. Given the frigid air mass in place over the region, heavy freezing spray concerns will linger into tonight before dropping off from west to east through Saturday morning as winds gradually diminish overnight. Winds shift southwesterly on Saturday and generally remain below 20 kt through the weekend as strong surface high pressure moves over the region. Winds look to increase to 20-30 kt out of the southwest on Monday ahead of the next clipper system crossing the lake Monday night, with winds then shifting northwesterly at 20-30 kt behind that system into the middle of next week. Gale probabilities continue to reside around 10-30% during the first half of next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday for MIZ001>006-009>014-084-085.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ001-003.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ002- 004-084.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ006-007- 085.

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for MIZ007.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ240>242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243>248-264-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.