textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- The combination of warm, moist air contributing to snowmelt and moderate to locally heavy rain today will result in renewed flooding concerns for low-lying areas, streams, and rivers over the western half of the UP. A Flood Watch remains in effect.

- Slightly above normal temperatures today into the weekend. The next period of widespread precipitation is expected Monday into Monday night.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for central and eastern parts of Lake Superior near the international border through this morning for southeasterly gales of 35 to 40 kt.

UPDATE

Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Going forecast remains mostly on track early this morning as showers and scattered thunderstorms continue moving over the west half of the UP. Rain totals are running a little under forecast at this point, with the highest MRMS QPE values of around a third of an inch in the Ironwood vicinity at 05Z, though the radar is showing some of the higher reflectivity cells lining up in a train, so higher QPF streaks are possible and flooding remains the primary threat. As the trough spreads west to east today, it weakens and the east half of the UP gets a more steady, soaking rain (HREF mean daily QPF around a half inch) with less flooding risk than in the west half this morning. The gale along the international border remains on- track, though some uncertainty remains in the potential for gale force gusts to occur in the nearshores along Alger and Luce counties. Hi res models are highlighting higher chances for gale force gusts in those nearshores, and the setup is similar to other stable- environment southerly flow gale events. However, the LLJ and warm advection is not as strong as the typical setup for such winds. So, will elect to message a few gale force gusts in the ongoing SC.Ys and other areas of messaging. However, close monitoring of the nearshore observations may be needed in case a short-fuse Gale Warning becomes necessary. Otherwise, mostly benign weather follows fropa for this weekend, and the most recent suite of global ensembles does not provide enough increased certainty to deviate from the going forecast for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Attention shifts to renewed flood concerns today as another round of rain looks to compound the issues with ongoing snowmelt. Model QPF values are more or less in line with previous thinking, with most of the U.P expected to see around a half inch of rain through today. Still, the potential is there for locally higher rainfall amounts given convective potential and PWAT values climbing to 1.00-1.25" across the UP. Fortunately, latest HREF guidance depicts the highest probabilities to exceed one inch of rain (~40%) in the far west across Ontonogan and Gogebic counties where snowpack is already gone for the most part. HREF retains around a 15-25% to exceed an inch of rain across central parts of the UP including river basins where most of the ongoing flood concerns reside. Will continue to keep a close eye on how these basins respond through today and into the weekend. Refer to the Hydrology section below for further details on ongoing flood concerns.

Any lingering rain should depart the eastern U.P. by early Saturday. High pressure building back into the region should make for a pleasant and dry weekend with temperatures falling back closer to seasonal norms in the 50s and perhaps the 60s closer to the WI border. The next system looks to arrive early next week, with rain spreading back into the area Monday night into Tuesday. Will obviously need to monitor how this next round of precipitation will impact ongoing flood concerns as a relatively warm and moist airmass continues to contribute to accelerated snowmelt.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A line of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a cold front continues to overspread Upper Michigan early this morning. So far, MVFR conditions have only been reported at IWD where rainfall has been heaviest. Nonetheless, anticipate CMX and SAW to also deteriorate to MVFR through the course of the morning along with a 30-40% chance of IFR by daybreak. Meanwhile, will also continue with a LLWS threat at CMX and SAW through daybreak. At the surface, southerly winds could gust to 20 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Gale Warnings remain in effect through this morning over the eastern and central parts of the lake. The highest probabilities for gale force gusts of 35-40 kt will be found over the northern half of the open lake zones near the international border. NBM and some of the high-res guidance is also picking up on a threat for some southerly gale force gusts in the nearshore zones tonight, but expect this threat to be localized enough to cover with small craft headlines for now. Rain and possibly some embedded thunderstorms will spread across the lake from west to east tonight with the cold front. Do not expect any severe weather for the most part.

Behind the cold front, expect the winds to become westerly gusting up to 20 to 25 knots tonight into early Saturday. After that, expect light winds of 20 knots or less to return to Lake Superior for the rest of the weekend thanks to a weak pressure gradient and high pressure ridging.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A frontal boundary will spread another round of rain with some embedded thunderstorms across the U.P. today, with latest probs of > 1" in 24 hours remaining around 40% in the west today, decreasing to 15-25% in the central and east today. The combination of prior accelerated snowmelt and moderate to locally heavy rainfall has prompted the issuance of an Areal Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the western half of the UP. There is uncertainty on impacts given that the highest probability of heavy rainfall are south of the existing snowpack. However, renewed rises on area rivers and streams can be expected into the weekend and early next week. Flooding of low-lying areas, creeks, and streams can also be expected.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MIZ001>005-010-011- 084.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ264-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.