textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers continue at times this evening, diminishing from west to east overnight through Thursday morning. Total precipitation amounts range from 0 to 0.25", greatest south.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible at times into early next week, but severe weather and heavy rainfall are not expected, and it's not likely that any day becomes a washout.

- Temperatures remain below normal this week into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Afternoon GOES satellite water vapor imagery reveals the nose of a very strong upper level jet streak nosing into Mid-Mississippi Valley. A ~992 mb surface low is being reflected in southern Minnesota underneath the jet streaks left exit region. Modest isentropic lift is spreading northward into northern WI and the UP stateline as this sfc low slowly meanders east. Closer to home, low level dry air has limited more meaningful precipitation past the stateline this afternoon, as is noted by the stubborn eastward progression of KMQT radar returns. Through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight, thinking radar returns will slowly fill in across the southwestern half of the UP and eastward, however, confidence remains low that the northern tier of the UP, mainly the Keweenaw through Marquette County, will see much rain if any at all. Latest CAM ensembles suggest a lame 0-50% for rainfall >0.1" in the aforementioned locations by tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, a 50-100% chance exists with the greatest probability focus across the stateline eastward to the Soo.

Once rain kicks east of the UP tomorrow morning, a brief period of local ridging aloft should keep things quiet through Thursday. Cant rule out a few spotty showers developing along the stateline and interior south-central during the PM hours, though confidence is low at this time (<30% chance). Daily rain chances and below normal temperatures persist through the weekend as weak shortwaves rotate through the Upper Great Lakes, though no notable QPF signals exist until early next week. The seemingly endless period of troughing begins to break down early next week into the midweek period, allowing more zonal flow aloft and the passage of additional shortwaves from the northern Rockies to emanate into the region. Chances for more widespread meaningful rainfall (25-50% of >0.25") returns in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 736 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Timing and extent of rain and associated lower cigs/vsby are the main forecast challenges for the 00Z TAF cycle. Thus far, dry air has fought the rain and associated lower conditions. However, rain will become more prevalent this evening and in the overnight hours at SAW, with MVFR cigs developing and MVFR vsbys at times. The rain has largely departed IWD, although an MVFR cloud deck may linger at times early this evening and redeveloping late tonight. VFR is expected to prevail at CMX along the periphery of the rainfall. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR at IWD/SAW late tonight or early Thursday as drier air is pulled in.

MARINE

Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

As a weak low pressure skirts south of the UP tonight, modest pressure rises and weak cold air advection will help increase WNW winds between 20-30 kts across the central and eastern lake Thursday morning. Winds fall between 20-25 kts or less Thursday night before falling below 20 kts lakewide Friday PM. A period of calmer winds <15 kts is expected through the rest of the weekend and into the coming week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.