textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather continues through the weekend. Highs in the 50s today and Saturday, warming into the low 60s on Sunday and Monday (15-20F above average).

- Precipitation chances increase early next week. Confidence is increasing for widespread rainfall Monday night into Tuesday, with a 60-75% chance for 0.5" or more of rainfall in a 24 hour period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

This afternoon GOES water vapor imagery and GFS model height analysis showed ridging developing over the Plains ahead of a trough that was along the West Coast and closed upper level low offshore from the Pacific Northwest. At the surface a ridge of high pressure extended from Wisconsin and Michigan, northwest to northern Minnesota. With the flow becoming anticyclonic lake effect rain showers had largely diminished though a few sprinkles were still over the far eastern U.P. Surface observations showed seasonable temperatures in the 40s to low 50s along with northwest winds around 10 mph. It was a bit breezier over the Keweenaw and Lake Superior shoreline where gusts to 20 mph were occurring.

Tonight high pressure will strengthen overhead and the pressure gradient will weaken. This, coupled with boundary layer decoupling should bring a cool night to much of the U.P. with lows falling into the 20s to low 30s. Even areas near the shorelines will be colder as a land breeze helps limit the influence of the warmer waters.

Upper level ridging will build over the Upper Great Lakes for the weekend with a warming trend expected along with a push of Gulf moisture. As the warmer, more moist air pushes into the area isentropic lift will bring increasing cloud cover Saturday afternoon along with a period of scattered showers Saturday evening and overnight. Low clouds and perhaps some advection fog could linger into Sunday morning, potentially into the early afternoon. It won't feel very much like November on Sunday into early next week. Overnight temperatures Saturday and Sunday night will be well above average with lows in the mid 40s (close to the average high temperature for the start of November). Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s.

Monday into Wednesday the West Coast trough opens up and moves east with a surface low developing in the lee of the Central Rockies, then tracking northeast to the Plains, and eventually into Ontario Tuesday night. This track would bring a warm front north through the area Monday night with warm air advection resulting in a period of widespread rainfall. Additional shower chances will continue into Tuesday night as the area remains in the warm sector. Shower chances will diminish on Wednesday as the cold front moves through bringing cooler, drier air back into the U.P. Probabilities have increased for 1"+ rainfall (in 24 hours) to the 25-50% range, highest near the MI/WI border. For 0.5" or more probabilities are closer to 60-75%. Thus it is looking likely to see a beneficial rainfall event over the area. Along with the rainfall temperatures remain unseasonably warm through Tuesday with highs in the low 60s (15-20F above average for early November). It does cool off behind the front with highs in the 50s Wednesday and Thursday, though this is still 5-10F above average.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

High pressure is leading to VFR conditions at all sites that will prevail through at least much of, if not all of Saturday. The biggest chances of MVFR ceilings are late Saturday afternoon at IWD ahead of an approaching disturbance where chances of ceilings between 2kft and 3kft are 30-65%. Expect light and variable winds at all sites until after sunrise, where generally southerly winds will be 5-10 kt.

MARINE

Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Lake Superior: High pressure will settle over the lake tonight with winds falling below 20 kts through the weekend. The lake will remain under the influence of a high pressure ridge through Monday resulting in southerly winds less than 20 kts. Increasing low level moisture and scattered showers Saturday night could result in areas of fog through Sunday morning (40% chance). Southerly winds increase on Tuesday to 30 kts along and east of the Keweenaw as low pressure lifts from the Plains to Ontario. Rain will also become widespread Monday night into Tuesday night. Warm moist air and rainfall could bring another round of marine fog for Monday night. Winds turn west behind a cold front on Wednesday with gusts to 25 kts over the eastern half of the lake through Thursday.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Light winds of 15 kts or less continue through early next week as high pressure ridging continues to build in over the region. It won't be until a vertically-stacked low lifts from the Plains to Ontario Monday night and Tuesday that winds increase to 20 to 30 kts from the southeast and south. Behind the low, expect south to southwest winds of 15 to 20 kt Tuesday night into Wednesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.