textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry today with highs only in the mid 40s to around 60; warmest interior west.

- A Clipper system brings widespread light rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Gales are possible over central Lake Superior Tuesday and yet again on Wednesday.

- Warmer than normal temperatures are favored by the end of this week. In addition, a more active pattern is expected as we head towards the latter half of May.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Dry and benign weather starts the forecast period as a high pressure moves over the Upper Great Lakes today. Because of this, expect mostly clear/mostly sunny skies across the U.P. today. However, with antecedent cool air remaining over us, expect the temperatures today to only be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs getting only into the mid 40s near Lake Superior up to around 60 in the interior west. While RHs look to drop down into the 20 percents over the interior areas, especially the interior west, by this afternoon, no elevated fire weather concerns are expected as the winds will be very light today. Don't be surprised if the lake breezes off of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan push into the interior portions of the U.P. by this afternoon given the very light flow aloft from the high pressure overhead.

The dry pattern we've seen the past several days changes on Tuesday as a Clipper low drops down into the Upper Great Lakes. As it does so, expect light rain showers to move through the entirety of the U.P., bringing at the very least a wetting rainfall to the area between Tuesday morning and Wednesday evening (between 0.10 to 0.50 inches). As the low continues into southern Ontario Tuesday night and towards the St. Lawrence Seaway on Wednesday, expect a transition over to lake enhanced rain showers over the north wind belts, with some snow potentially mixing in at times in the Keweenaw and in the higher terrain of north central Upper Michigan late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (no accumulations are expected). As the low continues to move out of the area, expect the lake enhanced showers to end on Wednesday, with the U.P. becoming shower-free by Wednesday night.

Moving into the rest of the forecast period, expect a more active period of high pressure ridges followed by shortwave lows or frontal passages bringing rainfall to the area. As this occurs, warmer and more moist air from the Gulf will be siphoned up into the Northern Plains, with the shortwave lows/fronts pushing this Gulf air over us beginning in the latter half of this week. Thus, we can expect temperatures to trend from below normal today to above normal by this weekend, with highs in the 70s being expected across much of the interior areas. The active period should also damper fire weather concerns as rainfall occurs every-other day or once every three days or so. The additional moisture and warming temperatures should create ideal conditions for the Spring green-up to accelerate as we heads towards the latter half of May.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 655 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through today as high pressure ridging moves through the region. Expect the winds today to be light, becoming mainly dominated by the Lake Superior lake breeze by the afternoon. As a Clipper approaches far western Lake Superior tonight, expect cloud cover to come in late, with some -SHRA potentially moving into IWD by the end of the period. Expect the winds to pick up from the SE/S tonight as the low approaches, with some LLWS moving over IWD near the end of the period (some LLWS could also be seen over CMX and SAW as well, but the uncertainty is higher).

MARINE

Issued at 234 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue today as high pressure ridging moves through the Upper Great Lakes. However, as a Clipper low approaches far western Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday, expect the winds to pick up from the south late tonight, potentially even gusting up to gales of 35 knots over the central lake by Tuesday as the low arrives; as of the time of this writing, there is around a 60% chance for at least low-end gales over the central lake on Tuesday. In addition, as the low approaches tonight, there is a slight chance that some thunderstorms could be seen over the far western lake. As the Clipper continues into southern Ontario Tuesday night and towards the St. Lawrence Seaway on Wednesday, expect the winds to initially weaken over Lake Superior late Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, as reinforcing cold air advection arrives behind the low late Tuesday night into Wednesday, expect the winds to pick up from the north-northwest across the central and eastern lake, with gales up to 40 knots possible over the south central lake near Marquette and Munising by Wednesday morning (around a 60% chance for at least low-end gales according to the latest NBM).

As the low continues to depart eastward and high pressure ridging builds in from the west, expect the winds to dwindle with time late Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with light winds of 20 knots or less being seen across the entire lake by Wednesday night. Expect the light winds to continue through the day Thursday as the high pressure ridging passes by. However, with a warm front pushing in from the west Thursday night through Friday, expect winds to pick up from the south once again to at least 20 to 30 knots over much of the lake; some gales up to 35 knots could also be seen over the eastern lake too come Friday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for LSZ244-245-248>250-264>266.

Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for LSZ248>250-265-266.

Lake Michigan... None.