textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- An initial burst of widespread, light to moderate snow beginning early this morning will be followed up by another round of snow later today into tonight, then lake effect lingers Friday through Friday night.

- A period of strong winds and low visibility in blowing snow is becoming more likely during the Friday morning commute, especially across the north-central and eastern UP.

- Warmer than normal temperatures make a return next week. This will create areas of unstable ice on inland lakes and along the Great Lakes shorelines.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Early this morning, deepening low pressure is moving through into far northern Ontario, with a cold front extending south of it into the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of this feature, WAA into the UP along with another shortwave rippling through has touched off our first round of light snow over the area. This continues to spread eastward into the eastern half of the UP this morning, while tapering off to the west. This drops around 1-2in of snow by the time most of the area sees a brief break in precipitation this afternoon, with some locally higher amounts up to 3in possible (30% chance) in the eastern UP courtesy of lake enhancement off of Lake Michigan. That said, with westerly winds behind the wave, some lake effect/enhanced precip may linger in the western UP. This is expected to fall as snow, but as we lose out on crystals with a dry DGZ this afternoon, some pockets of freezing drizzle will not be ruled out. Little impact is expected from any icing. Otherwise, temperatures are staying rather mild tonight, hovering in the upper teens and lower 20s. Temperature rise into the mid and upper 20s this afternoon.

Two additional troughs are anticipated to impact Upper Michigan tonight into Friday morning. The first largely skirts us to our southwest as it drops from MN into central WI, while the second is a deeper trough shifting southeast across N Ontario / James Bay. In tandem, these two features will work to bring another round of widespread, light snow this evening trough Friday morning, and will also send a sharp cold front across Lake Superior around the Friday morning commute. Expect additional light totals up to an inch for most of the UP by Friday morning, with higher totals of 1-3in expected in the west and northwest wind snow belts of the western UP as the cold front begins to work through. There is around a 30-40% chance for higher embedded totals of 4in in the higher terrain of the western UP. Behind the cold fropa, strong cold air advection and pressure rises will result in widespread wind gusts >30 mph. In the Keweenaw and central/eastern Lake Superior shorelines, ensembles suggest a 60-80% chance for gusts nearing 40 mph. At the same time, this cold airmass will quickly reinvigorate lake effect snow in the N to NW winds snowbelts, increasingly becoming concentrated over the eastern UP as much drier midlevel air works into the area. What is also worth noting is that recent ice cover growth along the nearshore from Marquette to Munising may further exacerbate the blowing snow risk as snow blows off the ice. As temps fall and the DGZ lowers near the surface Friday afternoon, gusty N winds and fine powder snow character may continue to create blowing and drifting snow through the day. This will result in travel concerns for both the Friday morning and evening commute as blowing and drifting snow may lead to reduced visibility. Gradually lighter LES persists in the eastern UP Friday night through Saturday morning. Additional snow totals will be highest over the eastern UP, where another 1-3in is expected before snow starts to wrap up by Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night into Sunday, yet another weak shortwave dropping through our large-scale NW flow brings another opportunity for some light snow area-wide. Beyond this weekend, a warming trend is expected with highs near or above freezing. This may create unstable ice on inland lakes and in sheltered bays/shorelines in the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 714 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

IFR will be the prevailing flight category for most of the TAF period with a few exceptions as light snow continues to overspread the TAF sites this morning. The exception at the moment is SAW where VFR is still holding on, but don't expect it to last much past mid- morning. At that point, expect SAW to start fluctuating between MVFR and IFR throughout the TAF period. Best chances of any LIFR will be at CMX where PROB30s have been inserted this afternoon and again early tonight. Do not expect any TAFs to improve to VFR during this TAF period as this disturbance is quickly replaced by 2 additional troughs through Friday morning. Additional impact includes west-northwest winds up to 25 kts at times.

MARINE

Issued at 359 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Southwest winds increase to 20-25kts over the western arm of the lake this morning ahead of our next system, while winds over the east peak mainly around 20kts. A cold front passing through Friday morning quickly veers winds out of the north, with gales of at least 35-45 kts across the eastern two thirds of the lake; 20-30 kts winds are expected over the far west. There currently is a 50-75% chance for high end gales to 45 kts over the central third of the lake, currently reflected in the forecast given the cold airmass and strong pressure rises on Friday. This also yields heavy freezing spray into Saturday morning when winds fall back to near 20 kts lake- wide.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for LSZ242-263.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for LSZ243>248-264- 265.

Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for LSZ263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LSZ264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for LSZ266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.