textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- The next system arriving tonight to Thursday morning brings snow, sleet, and ice accumulations up until Friday morning. Although exact totals are still uncertain due to questions on when the precipitation will begin, Winter Storm Watches capture the wintry mix combination yielding moderate to potentially major impacts.

- A Colorado Low passing through the area late Friday through the weekend brings another round of wintry mix; while all precipitation types are on the table, freezing rain is increasingly becoming the main concern. This second low may complicate recovery efforts this weekend.

- Daily high temperatures near/above freezing and chances of rainfall will cause snowfall and runoff to gradually raise river levels the rest of this week.

- East to northeast gales up to 45 knots are expected over the open waters of Lake Superior Thursday into Thursday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

As light lake effect snow and freezing drizzle wraps up over the north wind snow belts today, high pressure ridging building in this morning and cresting over the area this afternoon will give us a quick reprieve from the precipitation impacting the U.P. over the course of the next several days. While generally a quarter inch or less of liquid was added to the area over the past 24 hours, with temperatures and dewpoints generally being at or slightly above freezing across most of the region, the gradual snowpack melt is still causing rivers to slowly rise. As we continue to generally see high temperatures above freezing throughout the next several days, as well as a few inches of liquid, expect gradual rise in river levels to continue through this weekend into next week.

As a shortwave low lifts off of the Colorado Rockies later today, precipitation associated with the warm front could begin impacting the area near the Wisconsin border as early as sunset this evening. However, with a stout dry layer to overcome at around the 925mb layer, the onset of precipitation may be delayed until near sunrise Thursday morning at the latest; therefore, there is still quite a high bit of uncertainty on when the precipitation will start for the U.P. with this next system. That being said, it is becoming increasingly likely that the onset of the precipitation will be delayed, as the latest medium range guidance doesn't show QPF at the sfc until near 12z Thursday. While this will likely lead to lower wintry precipitation amounts (and more rainfall) it does still look like the precipitation type will start out as snow in the west half and potentially sleet or a mix of snow and sleet in the east half; the exception may be around Menominee where sleet and/or freezing rain may be initially seen. As the low moves through the Central Plains Thursday morning and continues towards us, expect warm air advection from the Gulf to develop a stout warm nose at around 850mb to 700mb. Thus, expect the precipitation type to change over from snow to sleet to freezing rain over the more western areas, and from sleet to freezing rain to "plain ole" rain over the south central and east throughout the daylight hours. With the low looking to track over the U.P. Thursday night, we may sneak into the warm sector aloft as 850mb temperatures approach 10C. Given the modest lapse rates and energy in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere in this warm sector, thunderstorms may be possible over the south central and east Thursday evening and the overnight hours; while the inversion near the sfc will limit severe weather threats from any potential thunderstorms over the south central and east Thursday night, some hail and heavy convective rainfall could be seen.

Amounts and Potential Impacts Between Tonight and Friday morning: Overall, this system could bring up to a few inches of snowfall and sleet to the area, especially in the Keweenaw where there is still over a 30% chance for 24-hour snowfall up to 6 inches. With sleet and freezing rain expected to be the main precipitation types for most of this event, we may see up to an inch or (in the very worst- case scenarios) two of sleet and over a quarter inch of ice in some spots (highest ice amounts expected in the Michigamme Highlands/Republic area of Marquette County). While for the most- part the ice and sleet/snow amounts are not adding up to the traditional Winter Storm Warning/Ice Storm Warning criteria, given that freezing rain is expected on top of recently fallen snow/sleet for this event, we may see greater impacts than if only one precipitation was expected. In addition, with winds increasing up to 35 mph across most of the U.P. to 40 mph in the Keweenaw Thursday, some power outages may be seen, not to mention the very slick roads creating travel delays and dangerous driving conditions. Therefore, decided to keep the current Winter Storm Watch going, but if push came to shove I would've upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings over at least the western half of the U.P. In addition, the 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid is expected to help local rivers continue rising, and in some of the heavier rain showers/thunderstorms some ponding of water is possible in the low-lying and poor drainage areas (looking at you Ludington Street in Escanaba). Therefore, if you can, avoid travel on Thursday as your risk for a car accident will be much higher. Also, it wouldn't be a bad idea to go get some extra food for the next few days, because if you are one of the folks that lose their power, it potentially could take several days before it's restored and the roads could remain icy (particularly in the interior west and Keweenaw).

As the low lifts into northern Ontario Friday morning, expect the precipitation associated with this low to rapidly cease from west- southwest to east-northeast. While the weak ridging will bring us another quick reprieve from the precipitation on Friday, expect another low pressure to pretty much follow nearly the exact same path as the previous low. However, there is one notable difference with this second low pressure system: temperatures aloft are projected to be warmer. Because the remnant cool air aloft is expected to be warmer, the chances that the precipitation with this second low pressure system will start out as freezing rain (and rain near Lake Michigan) are higher. Therefore, with temperatures at the sfc potentially dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s across most of the U.P. Friday night, we may see a significant icing event ON TOP OF the ice, snow/sleet, and rain we will receive tonight into Friday morning; the NBM currently has 24-hour ice totals of greater than a quarter inch up to 30% across the western U.P. already Friday night through Saturday (greatest chances over the higher elevations, particularly in Marquette County). This additional icing could complicate recovery efforts from the system expected tonight into Friday morning as well as create additional power outages and negative travel impacts throughout this coming weekend. Overall, these two back-to-back low pressure systems could really put a strain on the power grid, not to mention ruining Good Friday/Easter weekend plans.

As warmer air from the Gulf moves in, expect the transition over to pure rainfall across most of the area by Saturday (save for maybe the western U.P. and Keweenaw). However, as the cold front of the low moves through later in the day, we may see a switch back over to snowfall before precipitation ends by Sunday. Moving into next week, expect slightly cooler than normal conditions as polar air passes through the region. This may set us up for additional light snowfall sometime early next week, but confidence on that is still low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 743 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

MVFR continues to prevail at SAW and IWD this morning, while CMX has already improved to VFR. But, expect a return to VFR at SAW and IWD as well by late morning/early afternoon with a dry day expected for Upper Michigan. However, the good flying conditions will be short- lived as the next system overspreads precipitation northward across the TAF sites tonight. For now, will continue to highlight the flight restrictions with PROB30 groups for MVFR conditions until lower levels become saturated and ongoing trends better depict timing of precipitation onset.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Light winds of around 20 knots or less this morning steadily increase from the northeast to east this afternoon through tonight as a low exits the Colorado Rockies and lifts through the Central Plains. Eventually, northeast to easterly gales up to 45 knots build over Lake Superior on Thursday, with the greatest winds expected in the far west near Duluth and along the North Shore. With the return of the gales, some freezing spray could be seen in the northern half of the lake on Thursday. As the winds progressively back with time Thursday night, expect the winds to weaken, eventually dropping below gales late. While northerly winds dwindle to 20 to 25 knots by Friday, expect them to begin increasing again from the northeast and east late in the day once again as yet another low takes nearly the same track as the previous one. Thus, the NBM highlights over a 30% chance for at least low-end gales to return to the lake by early Saturday morning. After the second low passes through the Upper Great Lakes Saturday evening, we could see winds behind it increase from the northwest to north up to 45 knots (over 50% chance for at least low-end gales Saturday night into Sunday). As weak high pressure ridging moves in on Sunday, expect the winds to slacken with time, eventually becoming 20 knots or less again by Sunday evening.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for MIZ001>003-009-010-084.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for MIZ004-005.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for MIZ006-007-013-014-085.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for MIZ011-012.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday to 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for LSZ162-263.

Gale Warning from 1 PM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for LSZ244-245.

Gale Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for LSZ246>248.

Gale Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday for LSZ264>267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for LMZ248-250.