textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today to Wednesday with highs/lows up to 25F warmer than seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected this afternoon through the mid-week. There is a 50-90% chance for over 1" of rainfall over a 48 hour period, highest in the south-central and eastern U.P.

- Lake enhanced to lake effect rain showers expected to continue over the north to northwest wind belts late this work week. Temperatures closer to normal are also expected to return late this week.

- There is up to a 50% chance for low-end gales over central Lake Superior on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The last of the very light rain showers associated with the passage of a weak shortwave rolling through the area has ended early this morning as high pressure ridging continues to deteriorate ahead of a 997mb low over eastern Colorado lifting over the Plains today. The low is expected to bring its warm front and associated rain showers overhead by this afternoon. With better WAA moving overhead today, expect temperatures to once again climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area (even near the Great Lakes) by this afternoon. While there won't be much instability to work with when compared to the summer months, given the robust isentropic lift and frontogenesis seen with the warm front, the couple hundred Joules of MUCAPE will be enough to get rain showers and maybe a non-severe thunderstorm or two going across the area this afternoon and beyond; some of the showers and storms could be heavy at times, with the latest NBM showing a 50 to 90% chance of over 1" of rain falling between this evening and Wednesday evening (the highest chances over the south central and eastern U.P.). It does look like with some of the CAMs that there may be a cessation in the rainfall late tonight into Tuesday morning as the warm front stalls out, before another round of showers and potentially a few storms move back through the rest of the day Tuesday into the middle of the week.

Model guidance has converged on the low slowing down over the Northern Plains as it trudges east into the Great Lakes region this week. With guidance keeping us under the warm sector of the low through Wednesday, we can expect rain shower and thunderstorm chances to at least continue on-and-off (worst/best-case being near- continuous) through the first half of the work week. Thus, rainfall amounts could be notably higher than currently predicted in the forecast (0.75 to 1.50 inches between this morning to Wednesday evening). As the low continues to move east for the latter half of the week, guidance is in fairly strong agreement that the low will split; the more northerly low going into northern Quebec whereas a remnant low looks to remain over the Great Lakes region until early Friday. This remnant low remaining over the Great Lakes looks to bring lake enhanced and eventually pure lake effect precipitation over the north to northeast wind belts early Thursday into early Friday over the U.P. as CAA works from north to south over our area. While mainly rainfall is expected with the lake induced precipitation, as temperatures cool throughout the atmospheric profile late this work week we may see a mix over to snowfall at times; no notable snowfall accumulations are expected at this time. Ahead of the CAA, expect well above normal temperatures to continue over the U.P., with highs in the upper 50s to 60s continuing through even Wednesday (and lows only in the 50s through Tuesday night). However, once the CAA from Canada drops down, expect temperatures (particularly the highs) to lower closer to normal for early November, with highs only projected to get into the 40s to lower 50s and lows into the 30s to potentially 20s in the interior areas.

Expect drier weather to return this next weekend as high pressure ridging moves back in behind the lake effect precipitation. While temperatures are looking to not nearly be as warm as they are expected to be over the next couple of days, above normal high temperatures are predicted to once again return for the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected this morning as a low pressure deepens over the Central Plains and high pressure ridging continues to extend overhead from the Mid-Atlantic coast. Cooling in the low levels and light, moist southerly flow may (40-60% chance) result in the exception to this at SAW due to fog and low CIGs between 10-14Z. Insulating cloud cover so far has delayed initial development and resulted in guidance trending back on lowering conditions this morning. All sites begin to deteriorate in the afternoon to MVFR, eventually IFR in the late afternoon early evening as shower coverage expands. Probabilities for LIFR CIGs currently are capped at 25%, so mention was left out for now. IWD/CMX will see a brief lull in shower coverage accompanied by a lift in CIGs to MVFR near the end of the 6Z TAF period. Otherwise, southerly winds around 5 kts this morning increase to around 10-15 kts out of the southeast at all sites with gusts up to 20 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 237 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less this morning give way to increasing southeast to southerly winds late this afternoon, with the winds increasing up to 20 to 30 kts over the eastern half of the lake tonight. In addition to the winds, expect a few weak thunderstorms to rumble over the lake from time to time this evening through Wednesday as the warm front stalls out overhead and the low slowly progs into the Great Lakes region.

Winds weaken from the south to 20 to 25 kts over the eastern lake on Tuesday before dropping down to around 20 kts or less across the entire lake on Wednesday as the low's center approaches. With the low splitting and remnant troughing remaining over the Great Lakes region the rest of the work week, light winds continue over the area until CAA from northern Ontario drops down over Lake Superior Thursday morning. Expect north to northeasterly winds of 20 to 30 kts across the entire lake by Thursday, with the latest LREF showing up to a 50% chance for low-end gales up to 34 kts (highest chances over the central lake). As the CAA weakens Thursday night into Friday, expect the north to northeasterly winds to dwindle with time, eventually becoming 20 kts or less again by late Friday as high pressure ridging builds back into the Upper Great Lakes.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Light winds of 15 kts or less this morning increase from the south to 20 to 30 kts from the south this afternoon through tonight as a warm front pushes in and brings rain showers and a few thunderstorms to the area this afternoon through the middle of this week. The elevated southerly winds continue through Tuesday before weakening to 15 to 20 kts Tuesday night through Wednesday. The winds look to turn southwesterly Wednesday night before CAA arriving from Canada brings northerly winds of 15 to 25 kts to the area Thursday night into Friday. Winds slacken to 15 kts or less Friday night as high pressure ridging builds back over the Upper Great Lakes for the weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.