textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for precipitation persist throughout the week into early next week. Thunderstorms will be possible at times, but severe weather is not expected.

- Temperatures remain below normal this week into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a midlevel shortwave rotating over MN, through the broader troughing over the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure is stretched out from northern MN northeastward across the UP and Lake Superior and into Ontario. This is helping to keep in patchy low/midlevel cloud cover over our area, as well as some weak radar returns, though better forcing remains away to our southwest. Any showers over the area won't amount to much more by way of rainfall accumulations, and should diminish over the next few hours. Otherwise, some patchy fog development is possible, especially where we were able to pick up on some rainfall accumulations this past evening. Temperatures remain on track to bottom out in the 40s and 50s into the early morning hours.

As we head into the daytime hours, the surface low slowly pulls eastward, and a weak cold front currently over MN tracks through the UP. With a few hundred j/kg of CAPE over the area by the afternoon, but limited shear, showers and non-severe storms are expected to develop yet again for the afternoon and evening hours. Ensembles favor a widespread tenth to quarter-inch of rain over the central and eastern UP, but higher totals exceeding a half-inch are possible in any heavier downpours (30% chance per ensemble guidance). Meanwhile, temperatures remain on the cool side, topping out in the mid and upper 60s for most, with the eastern UP standing the best chance at hitting the 70 degree mark ahead of the cold front.

Expect the troughing pattern to hold steady overhead the rest of this week, keeping cool and drier interior Canadian air over the U.P. as shortwave lows cycle down from Alberta into the region nearly every day. Thus, expect below normal temperatures to continue through the rest of this week as highs range from the 60s to the lower 70s. In addition, the constant shortwave action will allow showers and thunderstorms to return nearly every day, although rain chances may last all day some days whereas others may be relegated to the afternoon hours in order for the convection to get some diurnal heating help. Still keeping an eye on a more impressive Clipper low moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the middle of this week; while the low's center is currently projected to miss us to our south, we could see some wrap-around moisture go north of the low and bring a stratiform-like rain pattern over us. The rainfall amounts from this could be wetting (0.10 to 0.25 inches) across most of the area, with the latest LREF showing a 50 to 90% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of rainfall across the area Wednesday and Wednesday night (highest in the south central, which is closest to the low's track).

While the troughing pattern may lift a tad as we head into next week, below normal temperatures do appear to persist, with another Clipper low from Alberta potentially impacting the U.P. once again near the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 711 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions gradually fall back to MVFR at IWD and CMX this morning as a cold front moves through. Further drops to IFR are possible as associated rain showers become more widespread. Showers finally reach SAW by the afternoon, though VFR conditions are expected to prevail. A few lightning strikes could also accompany the showers at SAW and will continue to highlight threat with PROB30 groups. All sites lift to VFR behind the front this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Winds starting off out of the SW ahead of a cold front continue to gust up to 15-20kts early this morning, but fall back below 15kts across the entire lake by sunrise. Winds veer more northerly with the passing front this morning into the afternoon. Expect the light winds of 20 knots to continue until late Wednesday when a strong Clipper low approaches the Great Lakes region from the Northern Plains. As the low approaches, expect winds to increase from the east, picking up 20 to 25 knots Wednesday night before becoming northerly at 25 to 30 knots over the eastern lake Thursday morning; the latest guidance up to around a 40% chance for low-end gales over the eastern lake near the U.P. on Thursday. Expect the winds to back to the northwest on Thursday, lightening up to around 20 to 25 knots over the eastern half of the lake by the evening hours. The northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots look to continue through the overnight hours and Friday, potentially backing to the west. Expect the winds to slacken further to 20 knots or less Friday night, remaining light through the rest of the weekend as the troughing pattern overhead begins to breakdown.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.