textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible (up to 50 percent) Monday. Current highest reasonable ice accumulation is around a half of a tenth of an inch, with snow totals of a half inch to 2 inches possible.

- Warmer than normal temperatures make a return this week. This will create areas of unstable ice on inland lakes and along the Great Lakes shorelines.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 450 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Early morning KMQT radar returns show light reflectivity signatures over the western UP and isolated periods of returns over the east and central as well. With Td depression of nearly 10 F for much of the UP, what weak snowfall is occurring is unlikely reaching the ground in a sort of "snow virga" setup. METAR reports of -SN have been few and far between, reflecting the day's model trends backing off on snow potential. Aloft, RAP analysis shows the shortwave responsible for the extremely weak snow and cloudiness evident at 700mb but not at 500mb with the pattern on a synoptic scale showing deep troughing over New England and ridging over the northern US Rockies atop a cutoff low over the Baja California peninsula. Despite the lack of precipitation overnight, enough hi res models carry a surge of light precipitation over the central UP that some slight chance to chance PoPs (up to 35%) are included in this forecast package, though snow totals are not expected to accumulate much more than a dusting. For all except the far eastern UP, expect a much warmer day today than yesterday as highs surge into the 20s (and perhaps 30 near Ontonagon as downsloping southerly winds warm the near-surface temperatures).

Tonight, a shortwave will ride the US/Canada border, arriving over northern Lake Superior around 09Z Monday. This relatively weak shortwave will introduce some widespread chance PoPs (20-40%) to the forecast as soon as early Monday morning. A secondary shortwave trailing it will have much better forcing as it will have an associated surface Clipper Low moving into northern Ontario North of Superior Monday night, dragging a cold front across the UP as it transits east. Warm southerly flow ahead of the cold front will allow Monday's highs to exceed the freezing mark for the west half and the south-central Monday, which will complicate the precipitation type forecast. Soundings do show that the warming is perhaps most prominent at 800-900mb where a warm nose forms. Models translate this into a wintry mix of precipitation that includes rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Amounts of each are generally light, though freezing rain does not take much to be impactful. LREF probabilities of exceeding a half a tenth of total ice accumulation are only about 15-20 percent, though chances of a glaze of ice are 35-50 percent. Chances of over a half inch of snow accumulation are lowest over the warmer west at around 30 percent but are over 70 percent in the east which retains cooler air for longer. With the sudden increase in probabilities of mixed precipitation, this will be worth keeping an eye on in case trends continue (or back off), but no headlines for now as the ceiling of impacts is too low for a headline.

Temperatures cool back to sub-freezing in the midweek period behind the cold front. Tuesday through Wednesday morning looks gusty especially near the lakeshores, with NBM wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for some shoreline locations. 850mb temperatures seem marginal for lake effect snow (LREF mean of -12 C), so kept some slight chance (15-30%) LES PoPs over the far east until Wednesday AM, but even if snowfall occurs, totals will be light. As high pressure firmly establishes itself over the Upper Great Lakes by Thursday, high temperatures will trend back above freezing and PoPs cease until at least the weekend. With highs above freezing, this could make some ice-borne recreation activities risky to hazardous, so make sure to monitor ice activity and depth in such conditions. Attention then turns upstream to a CO Low potentially arriving in the Great Lakes as soon as next Sunday afternoon, though spread has actually increased and confidence decreased since the same time 24 hours ago, so details remain fuzzy.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

A low-level southerly flow regime will prevail through the TAF period, with minimal changes of significance from current conditions. MVFR cigs are expected to continue at SAW, and a few flurries or light snow showers cannot be ruled out at times, especially late tonight into early tomorrow morning. VFR expected to prevail at IWD with downslope flow, while there is around a 40% potential for CMX to see MVFR conditions this evening into the overnight hours. Kept VFR prevailing in the TAF at this time due to higher probabilities. Southerly wind gusts around 20 kt are expected at times through the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 450 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Current benign wind conditions on Lake Superior will be interrupted by southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kt in the east half this afternoon along with waves building to 3-5 ft. As a cold front approaches Monday, the southerly gusts increase to 25-30 kt over the east half and near 25 kt over the west half (gale chances currently 20% or less). As winds shift to the northwest behind the cold front Tuesday afternoon, a 40 percent chance of gales is forecast for the east half through Tuesday night. Along with the gale potential is isolated heavy freezing spray risk and waves up to 8 ft. High pressure then quickly brings winds below 20 kt by Wednesday evening, where they remain for the rest of the forecast period.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.