textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain showers dissipate over the area this morning as a low level shortwave leaves the area.

- Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today through Tuesday with highs/lows 15-25F warmer than seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. There is a 70-90% chance for over 1" of rainfall over a 48 hour period, highest in the southern and western U.P.

- Forecast confidence is starting to increase for precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday as more model solutions are slower with the progression of the system late this week, which could result in additional rainfall for the mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026

As a weak shortwave continues to bring scattered light rain showers to the area this morning, expect the showers to dissipate across the area by late this morning as the aforementioned shortwave leaves the area. With remnant ridging overhead today, expect the highs to increase into the mid 60s over the interior areas by this afternoon even despite mostly cloudy skies remaining overhead. Overall, after this morning, expect mainly quiet weather today into Monday as upper level ridging persists, allowing highs to return into the 60s on Monday as well. While we could see some patchy fog late tonight/early Monday morning over portions of Upper Michigan, confidence on that is shaky; continue to keep up-to-date with the forecast to see the latest fog updates for tonight/Monday morning.

A stacked low of around 996mb over the Plains on Monday brings a warm front into Upper Michigan late Monday that stalls out overhead Monday night into the mid-week. With guidance continuing to slow down the progression of the warm front, rainfall amounts continue to increase amongst the differing ensemble and deterministic guidances; the latest NBM has 1+" of rainfall chances between 70 and 90% across the area from Monday to Wednesday morning, and greater than 2" chances between 10 and 30%. WPC is also highlighting the high rainfall amounts and has put the U.P. under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Monday and Monday night. While the soaking rainfall will certainly be welcome across the area, currently thinking no flooding will be seen due to the ongoing drought conditions across Upper Michigan and mainly synoptic-scale forcing creating the ascent (not much instability to create convection). Speaking of which, while the instability would be laughable when compared to the summertime (<100 J/kg), there may be enough to create a rumble of thunder or two as the rain moves through the area as we move from the early to mid portions of the work week given the robust frontogenetic forcing.

Moving into the latter half of the forecast period, confidence is slowly beginning to increase on precipitation chances continuing through the mid to late week period as the latest European and UKMET solutions continue to slow the progression of the low down over the Upper Great Lakes. Because of this, chances for wrap-around moisture from the low are increasing, suggesting that the cold front may avoid our area altogether as the low's center moves through either the Straits of Mackinac or Lower Michigan Thursday/Friday. However, CAA from behind the low could help induce lake enhanced and eventually lake effect precipitation over the north to northwest wind belts late this week, with a mix over to snow possible late Thursday/early Friday. While there still are some solutions that suggest a more progressive pattern, with the latest 00z run of the GFS coming much more in line with the Euro and UKMET, confidence on the slower solution and thus the longer, more continuous rainfall across the area continues to likewise increase.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 745 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

MVFR cigs this morning will eventually improve to VFR at all TAF sites starting with IWD after Sun 18Z. A few lingering rain showers are still possible this morning, but nothing that is impactful. Once VFR returns, it will prevail through the end of the TAF period. Otherwise south to southwest winds around 5 kts are forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less continue today through Monday morning as high pressure ridging slowly decreases with time early this week. The weak winds could bring marine fog across the area tonight; continue to keep your eyes on the forecast to see the latest marine fog updates. By late Monday afternoon, winds begin to increase from the southeast to 20 to 25 kts as a warm front starts to move in from the south. The winds turn more southerly Monday night before becoming more southwesterly Tuesday night. As CAA starts to move in from the northwest on Wednesday, expect the winds to turn more northwesterly before becoming northerly Wednesday night. Expect northerly gusts of 20 to 30 kts across the entire lake by Thursday, with a few gale force gusts up to 35 kts possible (LREF chances show up to a 25% chance).

Some rumbles of thunder could be heard overhead late Monday through Wednesday as the warm front moves in and then stalls out overhead.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Light winds of generally 15 kts or less continue today through Monday morning as high pressure ridging decays overhead. As a warm front starts moving in from the south Monday afternoon, expect winds to begin picking up from the south late in the day, increasing up to 20 to 25 kts by Monday night. The strong southerly winds continue through Tuesday before slowing slacking off Tuesday night, eventually returning to 15 kts or less again by Wednesday morning. The lighter winds continue until northerly winds of 20 to 25 kts return late Thursday with a shot of CAA.

Some rumbles of thunder could be heard overhead Monday afternoon through Wednesday as the warm front moves into the area before stalling.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.