textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Benign weather continues through Saturday afternoon.

- Active weather resumes Saturday night and continues through much of next week as several periods of showers and thunderstorms are poised to move through the region.

- A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of potential heavy rain and thunderstorms, will accelerate river rises and lead to ponding of water in areas with poor drainage. A Flood Watch has been issued for all of Upper Michigan from Saturday night through Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

GOES visible satellite shows skies beginning to clear across the western U.P. this afternoon as drier air begins to work into the region with surface high pressure. Extensive cloud cover across the central and eastern U.P. has held temperatures down in the 30s in many locations so far today, but expect the clearing trend to continue through the rest of this afternoon and allow temperatures to warm a few more degrees with a sunnier end to the day. High pressure will promote continued benign conditions tonight into Saturday under mostly/clear sunny skies. The clearing will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s across much of Upper Michigan tonight, but do not anticipate any widespread fog formation given dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere. Saturday looks to be a pleasant spring day as 850 mb temps warming to near 0 degrees C translate to afternoon highs in the 50s across much of the area, perhaps even the upper 50s near the WI border. This will kick off a stretch of well above normal temps that will last through much of next week and contribute to accelerated snowmelt and upcoming hydro concerns.

Speaking of those hydro concerns, a much more active weather pattern commences Saturday night as strong isentropic ascent and warm air advection brings a round of showers and potentially some embedded thunderstorms to the U.P. through Sunday ahead of a deep low tracking through the northern Plains. Rain could be heavy at times into Sunday as PWAT values climb above one inch, surpassing the 95th percentile of nearby sounding climatology for early-mid April. Models have shown a bit of run to run fluctuation in terms of QPF amounts, but the going NBM-based forecast still generally depicts amounts ranging from 1.00-1.25" across the central and eastern U.P. and closer to 0.75" in the west from Saturday night through Sunday night, which is more or less in line with or perhaps a slight upward tick from the previous forecast cycle. This coupled with accelerated snowmelt from rising temperatures and higher dewpoints will begin to put a strain on area rivers, with several locations forecast to reach or come close to flood stage by early to mid next week. An areal Flood Watch has been issued for all of Upper Michigan from Saturday night to Wednesday morning to account for potential river flooding and ponding of water in areas with poor drainage.

The pattern will remain conducive to ongoing hydro concerns through much of next week as southwest flow aloft becomes established over the Great Lakes downstream of persistent troughing over the western CONUS, paving the way for additional systems to bring periods of rain and thunderstorms during the middle and latter parts of the week. Meanwhile, low level southerly flow will maintain a feed of rich gulf moisture and help to keep high temperatures in the 50s and 60s through the end of the week while overnight lows stay above freezing over most of the U.P. See the Hydrology section below for a additional information on flooding concerns due to the combination of rain and snowmelt.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

High pressure is currently brining VFR conditions to all TAF sites, which should continue through the TAF period. NW winds will gust to around 10-15 kt during the day today before becoming light and variable (but mostly out of the SW) overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

High pressure building over the region will keep winds below 20 kt today through Saturday, with mainly SW winds today diminishing below 15 kt tonight and becoming light and variable on Saturday. Southeast winds increase Saturday night as low pressure develops off the Northern Rockies and high pressure shifts to the east. An associated warm front lifting through also brings showers and thunderstorms. Expect winds of 20-30 kt over the eastern two thirds of the lake by early Sunday morning, continuing into Sunday afternoon. A 30-50% chance for gales to 35 kt is present over the eastern half of the lake Sunday morning into the afternoon. Will hold off an issuing any headlines for now given the marginal nature of the threat.

Winds briefly fall back below 20 kt across the lake Monday morning, but increase to 25-30 kt out of the NE Monday night into Tuesday as another low pressure system moves towards the Great Lakes. Chances for gales are much lower with this system, remaining 15% or less at this time. The active period continues through at least mid next week as a third system keeps winds in the 20-30 kt range.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A slow snow melt gives way to accelerated melting this weekend as the snowpack becomes ripe for melting (snowpack temperature reaching freezing) and rain chances increase. River rises are expected this weekend into early next week given the expected rainfall and favorable melting conditions.

The remainder of the weekend into early next week sees a fairly persistent Gulf connection into the Great Lakes, bringing warm and moist air into the region. Temperatures warm up on Saturday into the mid 40s to mid 50s with widespread dewpoint temperatures just eclipsing freezing. Temperatures broadly remain above freezing Saturday night...beginning a prolonged period of above freezing temperatures and dew point temperatures.

Sunday and Monday are the focus of highest temperatures, with forecasts ranging 10 to 20 degrees above normal (Normal Highs: 40s to low 50s, Normal Lows: 20s to 32) as parts of the UP get placed underneath the warm sector. The NBM currently has highs in the 50s and 60s, warmest in the interior west on Sunday and in the south- central on Monday. There is a 30 to 50% chance of exceeding 70 near the WI/MI state line on Sunday and a 40 to 60% chance in the south- central on Monday. Lows are expected in the 40s to mid 50s Sunday night and mid 30s to mid 40s Monday night (15 to 30 degrees above normal Sunday night!). During this period dewpoint temperatures soar into the mid 40s to mid 50s Sunday, remaining elevated into Monday night. Winds around 10-15 mph will support heat transfer near the surface, increasing snow melt efficiency.

With this warmth and moisture comes showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation could be heavy at times, with the NBM showing 40-50% chances for above 1 inches in 24 hours ending 8 PM EDT Sunday. Stronger storms may bring amounts of 1.25 to 2 inches in 24 hours reflected in the NBM 75th to 90th percentiles. A second round of showers and possibly thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday brings mean rainfall amounts between 0.5 to 1 inch of rain with stronger showers/storms reaching up to 1.25 to 1.6 inches of rainfall. Additional precipitation is anticipated into mid next week.

All these factors lead to accelerated rate of snowmelt and increasing likelihood of ponding of water on low-lying/poor drainage areas as well as minor river flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for the entire U.P. from Saturday night through Wednesday morning to account for these concerns. Moderate river flooding remains possible on the Paint River near Crystal Falls and the Sturgeon River near Alston (now up to a 45-50% chance in these locations). See the latest River Flood Statements for additional information. Those living near and planning to recreate around the rivers and low-lying areas of the U.P. early next week should keep up with the forecast and river levels as the snowmelt and rainfall amounts will determine flooding potential.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Wednesday morning for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.