textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect rain showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon.

- Light lake effect showers expected through tomorrow with minimal accumulations.

- Cooler/more normal temperatures return for Thursday and Friday.

- Well above normal temperatures expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Current radar imagery indicates lake effect and diurnal showers and thunderstorms ongoing across Lake Superior and the central U.P. Areas in the central and eastern U.P. are likely to see brief, spotty rain showers and isolated rumbles of thunder continue this afternoon as instability remains over the area.

Seasonably cool temperatures return while lake effect rain chances continue through Thursday. Precipitation chances will be primarily over the eastern U.P., as winds over the eastern lake remain northwesterly with some CAA while winds over the western arm shift to westerly. Rainfall totals are expected to remain under five hundreths of an inch for areas that are impacted by showers. Instability over the lake is expected to be more limited tomorrow, however, a rumble of thunder or two cannot be entirely ruled out. Thursday night into Friday a surface low deepens and shifts eastward over the northern Plains, creating a tight gradient of meridionally- oriented isobars which will result in strengthening southerly winds and WAA across the Great Lakes region. Temperatures rise into the 60s across the U.P. Friday afternoon and remain well above average (by 8-10 degrees) overnight as a result of the WAA.

Temperatures are expected to be well above average this weekend (by 15-25 degrees). Highs are likely (~70% chance) to reach the 80s in the interior west and lows will remain above 55 degrees overnight. Upper-level ridging and dewpoints in the 50s indicate that clear skies and dry weather are likely. Elevated fire weather conditions may be reached over this period, as sustained southerly winds remain at 10-15kts through the weekend, gusting up to 35mph, while RHs drop to 40-50% for the daytime hours and fail to reach above 85% overnight. Looking ahead to the early workweek, troughing moves into the area at the surface and upper levels. This will cause winds to shift northerly, bringing temperatures back to near-average via CAA. These northerly winds could also bring our next best chance of precipitation if sufficient moisture is present over northeastern Canada.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 737 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at all sites. While lake effect isolated rain showers are ongoing across much of the UP, confidence in any individual site or vicinity having showers is less than 30%, so mention has been left out of this TAF. While gusty northwest winds will decrease some overnight tonight, they will reinvigorate for Thursday, reaching as high as 25-30 kt at CMX and around 20 kt for IWD/SAW.

MARINE

Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Lake Superior: Small craft advisories remain in effect for most of the shoreline through Thursday. Winds remain westerly at 20-30kts this afternoon, shifting northwesterly overnight. Wave heights will be 3-5 ft across the lake. Lake effect rain showers remain in the forecast Thursday, although limited to the eastern lake. Instabilities will be lower Thursday, so, while a stray lightning strike or two may be produced from these showers, strikes will be rare. Wave heights could reach up to 9ft in the SE portion of the lake. Winds decrease to around 10kts and shift southerly Friday as surface high pressure builds over the area. Wave heights diminish to 0-2ft. Southerly winds increase to 20-33kts (strongest in the SE area of the lake)Saturday and remain through Sunday morning. At this time, gale exceedance probabilities for this period are low (20- 40%). Waves during this time period could reach up to 6ft, with most areas at 2-5ft. Winds decrease slightly to 20-30kts Sunday night into Monday and shift northerly.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: A small craft advisory is in effect from 3:00pm today through 8:00pm Friday. Winds are west-southwesterly at 10-15kts with wave heights around 1-2ft. Winds are expected to shift northwesterly overnight, increasing to 15-20kts and remaining so through Thursday. Thursday night into Friday, winds shift to southerly and decrease to 10-15kts as a surface high build over the area. Southerly winds increase in speed through Saturday, reaching up to 25kts in the bay and 30kts in the open water. Wave heights during this time are expected to reach 3ft in the bay and up to 8ft in the NW lake. Wave heights and winds diminish Saturday night through Sunday, reaching 1-4ft and 10-15kts, respectively, by Sunday evening. Overnight Sunday, winds shift westerly to northwesterly at 10-15kts.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.