textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers continue across the northwest wind snow belts of the eastern UP through this evening. Additional snowfall totals peak at around 1-3".

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through early next week. Low temperatures in the single digits to below zero are possible this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Longwave pattern over the CONUS this morning features troughing over the East, with a midlevel low centered over the Ontario/Quebec border region, and a ridge out west. A subtle shortwave is apparent over Saskatchewan. At the surface, deep low pressure is moving over New England while high pressure builds over the Plains. In between, the Great Lakes remain under persistent NW flow. This will keep the lake effect machine going for most of today, though drier midlevels will largely limit this to the eastern UP given the longer fetch off of Superior. Radar indicates pretty decent banding extending across Alger and Schoolcraft counties, and for its part, the HREF is showing mean snowfall rates of around a half-inch per hour in the strongest of bands. Snow showers are dropping visibility to near a mile when they move over available surface stations. This could make for tricky driving conditions at times across US-2 and M-28 this morning. However, inversion heights continue to lower while soundings continue to dry out within/above the snow growth zone, so snowfall rates should fall back through the morning. Snow finally dwindles late tonight into Friday. Until then, look for another 1-3" across the eastern UP. Temperatures in the teens this morning peak in the lower to mid 20s, falling back into the teens and single digits tonight.

Another weak clipper looks to move across Lake Superior late Friday into early Saturday, bringing another quick batch of snowfall Friday afternoon and evening that transitions over to lake effect late Friday night. Snowfall totals aren't too miraculous, with most of the UP only picking up a quick 1-2". However, lake enhancement over the Keweenaw may lead to higher totals in excess of 4" by Friday night (30-40% chance among various ensembles), then lake effect lingers into the weekend. Another shot of arctic air then moves into the area this weekend behind the system as 850 mb temps plummet to - 20 to -25C by early Sunday. This will correspond to daytime highs in the single digits to low teens and overnight lows flirting with below zero readings over much of the area for Saturday and Sunday. Also expect breezy northwest winds to develop on the backside of the Friday system, contributing to sub zero wind chill values across much of the U.P. through the weekend.

Models continue to hint at another clipper approaching the region late Sunday into Monday, but also continue to differ greatly with respect to strength, progression, and timing of this feature as some solutions would result in impactful snowfall while others would miss the U.P. completely to the north. Looking farther out into next week, there is then some indication that a slight warm up may be in store mid to late week as daytime highs potentially climb above up above freezing for the first time since prior to Thanksgiving. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

MVFR/IFR conditions will continue at the TAF sites due to lake effect clouds and snow showers. As winds shift more southwesterly IWD and SAW should see a period of VFR for the evening/overnight hours. Freezing drizzle has been observed in Marquette county and have included in the SAW TAF, freezing drizzle should come to and end early this evening as upslope flow weakens. A clipper will approach the area on Friday with light snow developing at IWD towards the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northwest winds continue to gust to 20-25kts across the eastern half of the lake this morning, slowly falling back through the afternoon. To the west, winds are coming in below 20kts. Expect a brief period of lighter westerly winds below 20 kt across the entire lake into early Friday before winds increase again ahead of the next system. This will bring renewed gale chances by Saturday morning, with a 30-50% probability of gales over central portions of the lake during the weekend, and freezing spray concerns also increasing as a frigid air mass moves over the region.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.