textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect warmer and dry weather today as highs get into the 50s to lower 60s and RHs drop into at least the 20 percents in the interior areas. Elevated fire weather concerns may be seen by this afternoon.

- Rain showers potentially return tonight and Saturday. Expect any precipitation amounts to be fairly light, less than a tenth of an inch.

- More cool and dry weather is expected for early next week as high pressure descends over us from the Canadian Prairies.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

With some snow/rain showers having left the U.P. finally early this morning to our east, expect mostly clear skies the rest of this morning as the peak of the weak high pressure ridging begins to exit the area by around sunrise. That being said, there are portions of the U.P., such as the higher terrain in Marquette County (K.I. Sawyer, and the area up the hill west of Marquette) where some freezing fog is being realized. Therefore, watch out for icy/slick spots when driving this morning, and be sure to have your low-beam headlights on to help see as well as helping the other drivers locate your car in the fog. The freezing fog will probably go away not too long after sunrise this morning.

Looking at the rest of today, expect pleasant weather and dry conditions as highs rise into the 50s to lower 60s. Thinking the very dry air within the lower levels of the atmosphere will keep us dry as any elevated shower activity will more than likely evaporate most, if not all, of the precipitation headed towards the sfc, as model soundings show a very 'western U.S'-type sounding: an inverted- v between the sfc dewpoints and temperatures all the way up to around 8 to 10 kft. While this very dry air in the lower levels will (mostly) prevent precipitation from hitting the ground, it will also create strong mixing into the boundary layer today. Thus, expect RHs today to drop quickly, reaching the 20 percents by the early afternoon hours over much of the interior Upper Peninsula; with the partly cloudy skies and robust mixing within the boundary layer, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the drier spots achieve min RHs in the upper teen percents. However, despite the deep boundary layer, winds at the sfc are not expected to be all that gusty as there is no LLJ to be mixed down to the sfc. Instead, generally west to northwesterly winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected across much of the area by this afternoon, although some higher infrequent/erratic gusts up to 30 mph or so are possible at times due to the strong mixing in the boundary layer today. The highest gusts may be seen along the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan lake breeze by this afternoon, as the marine layers could act as 'mini cold fronts' and really siphon the higher winds aloft down to the sfc with great efficiency; this looks to mainly be a concern near the Lake Superior shoreline over the west, and over the eastern half of the U.P. where convergence of the lake breezes could occur (Marquette County eastward). Overall, while uncertainty is still somewhat high at this time, we may see some elevated fire weather concerns across the U.P. this afternoon into early this evening given all the expected conditions mentioned above. That being said, it will depend on the wind speeds; while infrequent and erratic winds higher than 20 mph are expected at times across the area, don't expect them to be sustained due to the lack of influence from a nearby LLJ. One more note: expect the fire weather concerns to rapidly deteriorate behind the lake breeze today as temperatures are expected to drop several degrees, RHs recover to above 30%, and winds weaken behind it.

Moving into tonight and Saturday, a cold front descending from Canada potentially brings additional light rain showers back across the Upper Peninsula. Right now, only light rainfall amounts of generally less than a tenth of an inch are expected across the area thanks to the dry air in the lower levels. However, with the latest HRRR and Canadian runs showing little to no rainfall over the U.P. tonight through Saturday now, there is some concern that the area may miss out entirely on the rain showers as the dry air in the lower levels would 'eat' any available moisture falling towards the sfc. If that is the case, then that may increase fire weather concerns as more dry and cooler weather returns to the area Sunday into Monday via high pressure ridging moving in from the Canadian Prairies. Thankfully, with temperatures projected to be cooler than normal again and winds remaining light (20 mph or less), elevated fire weather concerns are still not expected for early next week at this time, even if the drier solutions come true.

Our next chance at precipitation comes with the arrival of a Clipper low digging into the Upper Midwest. Depending on how this Clipper tracks, we could receive anything from a wetting rainfall nearly U.P.-wide to absolutely nothing. As we head towards the end of next week, expect temperatures to progressively climb as air from the Mexican interior and Desert Southwest finally starts to push into our area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 657 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected across the terminals today and tonight as dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere keep cigs at around 8 to 10 kft today before they lower to around 5 kft this evening and tonight. While there is a slight chance of rain showers over CMX and IWD this evening, the chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this point (20% or less). At SAW though, chances are just high enough to at include at least an hour or two of -SHRA mentions (up to 30%) tonight. In addition, there may be an hour or two of FG at SAW tonight late after the -SHRAs, but given that the uncertainty on the FG is still high, decided to only go down to 4SM BR for now.

Winds look to mostly be from the W this morning before the lake breezes potentially impact the terminals during the afternoon hours. In addition, we may get gusty winds up to 20 kts at times, especially at CMX where gusts are expected to be greatest. Infrequent/erratic gusts of over 20 kts are also possible at all of the terminals this afternoon given the very deep mixing layer and potentially elevated showers that will most likely not have precipitation reach the sfc (around a 90% chance); TEMPO groups may need to be added in the future if the confidence on the erratic winds increase in the future. Winds turn fairly light early tonight before they start to build ever-so-slightly from the W/NW late tonight/early Saturday AM. While CMX and SAW may flirt with marginal LLWS given the 180 degree directional shear between the sfc and 2 kft, with the winds being light tonight (no more than 20 kts), thinking we will just avoid LLWS for the time being.

MARINE

Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less remain today through tonight as weak high pressure ridging gives way to a cold front descending from Canada tonight into Saturday. Behind the cold front, expect the winds to increase from the NW to 20 to 25 knots over the eastern half of the lake on Saturday, before lightening up to around 20 knots late Saturday night. However, with an additional shot of cold air advection moving over Lake Superior on Sunday, winds may once again increase from the NW to 20 to 25 knots over the eastern half of the lake during the afternoon. As high pressure ridging begins to build into the region early next week though, expect the winds to weaken to 20 knots or less again by Sunday night. The winds look to remain that way through Monday as well, until a Clipper low digging through the Upper Midwest potentially increases winds from the E at 20 to 25 knots over the south central lake later in the day on Tuesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.