textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front looks to bring a line of rain showers across the U.P. late this afternoon through tonight. Some rumbles of thunder may be heard. Expect around 0.1 to 0.4 inches of liquid to fall.

- Southerly gales to 40 knots are expected over the east-central open lake and along the nearshore from Marquette to Grand Marais this afternoon. Some westerly gales up to 35 knots are expected along and north of the northshore of the Keweenaw late tonight into Thursday morning.

- Expect gradual snowmelt and river rises the rest of this week as high temperatures get into the 40s and 50s.

- Active weather resumes late this weekend along with even warmer temperatures. A prolonged period of well above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of rain showers and potential thunderstorms will accelerate river rises.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A warm front moving through earlier today brought a burst of heavy snowfall, sleet, and light freezing rain across the central and east before leaving the U.P. this afternoon. In its aftermath, driving conditions become quite poor, especially in the heavy snowfall where accumulations and melting on roadways created icy/slick spots. However, now that we are under the warm sector, temperatures are continuing to rise into the 40s and 50s across the area ahead of an incoming cold front arriving from the northwest mid-to-late this afternoon over the western U.P.; in addition, winds are picking up from the south ahead of the cold front, with some gusts up to 45 mph possible along the Lake Superior shoreline from Marquette to Grand Marais. That being said, the wind gusts do not look to be consistent and long-lived enough to warrant a Wind Advisory. The strong winds over Lake Michigan are also potentially bringing wave heights as high as 10 feet to the shoreline of the Garden Peninsula this evening; while some minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion may be seen, I'm not confident enough to think that this will warrant a Lakeshore Flood Advisory for the area. As the cold front pushes through this afternoon through tonight, expect rain showers and potentially a couple non-severe thunderstorms along it. With PWATs getting up to around 0.8 inches late this afternoon ahead of the cold front and increasing moisture with time, the area is looking to get around 0.1 to 0.4 inches of liquid due to the convection along the cold front, with the south central and east expected to receive the most and the west the least.

Moving into the rest of this week, expect fairly zonal flow Thursday and Friday to give way to ridging on Saturday. This synoptic setup is looking to continue high temperatures in the 40s and 50s across the area, with some areas near the Wisconsin border potentially sneaking up to the lower 60s by Saturday. In addition, dewpoints are looking to remain below freezing for the work week, although as Gulf moisture begins to pump into the region on Saturday we may see dewpoints rise above freezing then (around a 30 to 50% chance according to the 00z LREF run). With drier weather expected during this time period (save for a less than 25% chance for precipitation by the city of Menominee Thursday night) and with lows getting below freezing Thursday and Friday nights, expect the remaining snowpack to only slowly melt away. Thus, we can expect river flooding risks over the next couple of days to be rather limited as river rises from snowmelt will be slow and small.

However, this looks to change late this weekend as a low pressure system moving off of the lee of the northern Rockies starts to bring precipitation to the region Saturday night. As the warm front of the low moves into the region Saturday night, expect convection in the form of rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms to return to the area. With PWATs increasing to over an inch Saturday night and with fairly robust lift within the warm front, the convection could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the area. As we continue under the warm sector of the low pressure Sunday through Monday, expect highs to soar into the 50s and 60s, with the NBM showing up to a 40% chance for temperatures above 70 in the south central and interior west near Wisconsin on Monday. In addition, with moisture still being pumped in from the Gulf, convective showers and thunderstorms look to continue through early next week as dewpoints climb well above freezing into the 50s, even during the overnight hours. Thus, the very warm and moist air in conjunction with rainfall, potentially heavy at times) could increase snowmelt across the remaining snowpack and thus accelerate river rises across Upper Michigan. In addition, the convective rainfall could also produce ponding of water in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Therefore, we will continue to monitor this situation as it continues to evolve as at least minor river flooding could become more apparent next week. That being said, confidence is already high enough in minor flood stage being achieved at Alston along the Sturgeon River in northwest Baraga/eastern Houghton counties that a Flood Warning was issued last night; decided to keep it going with this afternoon's package as the river forecast from the North Central RFC didn't deviate from what was expected last night. Behind the low, expect cooler temperatures as colder air from Canada attempts to push in from the north next Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Observations show conditions improving to VFR across western Upper Michigan as of 18z Wed as the dry slot of a system tracking across the Upper Great Lakes moves over the UP. Localized IFR cigs are lingering at KSAW but should improve back towards VFR by around 21z as lingering precipitation from this morning departs the eastern UP. Meanwhile, -SHRA will spread back into the western terminals and eventually the central UP 22-00z this evening as a trailing cold front moves into the area. This will bring renewed MVFR conditions and gusty winds out of the S-SW, with LLWS expected again across the eastern half including KSAW later this evening. Precipitation exits to the east again 04-06z tonight, yielding a return to VFR for most terminals, though MVFR cigs may linger into THursday morning at KCMX. Winds shift westerly behind the front and continue to gust to 20-25 kt through the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Southerly gales up to 40 knots over the east-central open lake and along the nearshores from Marquette to Grand Marais, MI drop below gale this evening as the cold front bringing rain showers (and potentially a couple rumbles of thunder) pushes in from the west. However, as cold air advection improves behind the cold front late tonight into Thursday morning, expect winds to pick up from the southwest to west to 20 to 30 knots across the lake, with westerly gales up to 35 knots expected along and near the northshore of the Keweenaw; therefore, a Gale Warning has been issued from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday. As the troughing behind the cold front deteriorates and more zonal flow aloft takes its place on Thursday, expect the winds to progressively weaken with time as they slowly veer to the northwest. By Thursday evening, expect the winds to die down to 20 knots or less and to remain that way until Saturday evening. As a low pressure system lifts off of the northern Rockies on Sunday, expect the low's warm front to move into the region and begin increasing winds from the southeast and south Saturday night (as well as bring showers and thunderstorms). Expect winds of generally 20 to 30 knots over mostly the eastern half of the lake by Sunday as convection looks to generally continue through early next week. As the low lifts over northern Ontario towards James Bay on Monday, a second low pressure system looks to move towards the Upper Great Lakes from Colorado. Thus, while winds look to weaken as the progressively back with time Sunday night through Monday, expect the winds to remain elevated above 20 knots.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Expect minor snowmelt and river rises the rest of today into Saturday as high temperatures get into the 40s and 50s (potentially even lower 60s by Saturday) as dewpoints remain below freezing (save for potentially Saturday at 30-50% chance). While the convection could bring over a quarter of an inch of rainfall to the area tonight (20 to 60% chance, highest over the east and lowest over the west), with temperatures falling below freezing each night the rest of this week, expect snowmelt and river rises to be limited.

Snowmelt and river levels are expected to accelerate early next week as a warm front associated with a low pressure system lifting off of the northern Rockies moves over the area Saturday night into Sunday. With the warm, moist air of the Gulf remaining overhead Saturday night through Monday, expect temperatures to remain above freezing and for high temperatures to get into the 50s, 60s, and potentially 70s (warmest temperatures expected on Monday). In addition, dewpoints appear to soar into the 50s as winds pick up from the south. Convection could bring heavy rainfall at times, with the NBM showing probabilities of an inch or more of rainfall at around 40 to 70% across the area between Saturday night and Monday evening. Thus, given the accelerated rate of snowmelt and increasing chances for heavy rainfall, the likelihood for ponding of water on low-lying and poor drainage areas and for river flooding is increasing. Therefore, those living near and planning to recreate around the rivers and low- lying areas of the U.P. early next week should keep up with the forecast and river levels as the snowmelt and rainfall amounts will determine flooding potential.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ249-250.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LSZ266.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ221-248-250.