textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake effect snow showers linger in the east through this afternoon. Additional snow totals come in below an inch.

- Two rounds of widespread light to moderate snow are expected Thursday into Friday. Strong winds arriving Friday morning as lake effect snow showers develop bring potential for hazardous conditions from blowing snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Early this morning, high pressure remains centered to our southwest over southeastern MN, with dry midlevel air over the Great Lakes allowing for clear skies across WI and most of the western UP. However, lake clouds remain present over the Keweenaw and the eastern half of the UP. Where skies have cleared out, temperatures are plummeting lower than expected with some spots falling below - 10F. Meanwhile, under lake clouds, temperatures are only falling as far as the teens and perhaps single digits above zero. Temperatures should rebound nicely into the lower/mid 20s for most of the area today, while a weak shortwave moving through brings an increase in cloud cover. Little to no impacts are expected from this apart from the increasing clouds, though it may kick off some light lake- enhanced flurries over the Keweenaw. Otherwise, light lake effect snow persists in the eastern UP for today, but totals stay well below an inch before wrapping up this evening. Expect temperatures to come in comparatively warmer tonight into early Thursday with cloudy skies and slowly warming 850mb temperatures; lows bottom out just below 10F.

Early Thursday morning, a shortwave accompanied by WAA from southwesterly flow and isentropic ascent kicks off a quick round of widespread, light snow. Soundings show a rather elevated DGZ (at around 9kft) and a warmer column below it at around -10 to -5C. So, snow ratios shouldn't be overly high, generally falling to around 12- 15:1 by the afternoon. This yields a widespread 1-3in of snow for the morning and afternoon before the dry slot works in and brings an end to this batch of snowfall. Temps warm even further into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Late Thursday, a more organized low tracks over far northern Ontario with a shortwave diving southeast over the western UP/Wisconsin, sending a cold front through the area Friday morning. Strong CAA and pressure rises post fropa will result in blustery northwest winds. Widespread gusts of 20-30 mph are expected on Friday with 40+ mph by the eastern Lake Superior shores and in the Keweenaw. Latest NBM probabilities of 40+ mph gusts are between 30- 60%. The same cold airmass reinvigorates lake effect snow over the NW and then N wind snow belts late Thursday night through Friday. A near surface DGZ and inversion heights only between 4-6kft will keep accumulations on the lower side (1-3 inches), but raise blowing snow concerns when combined with the strong winds. Travel impacts are becoming increasingly likely for the Friday commutes.

A brief lull in PoPs is forecast early on Saturday before another shortwave traverses the Upper Great Lakes into Sunday, but confidence on wave track and timing remains low. Temps quickly drop back below freezing for the weekend, warming again next week with highs near freezing and lows in the teens.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Mainly VFR conditions prevailing across Upper Michigan this afternoon, with the exception of persistent lake clouds along the Keweenaw producing MVFR cigs at KCMX. Expect these conditions to persist through ~06z Thu, with some improvement towards VFR also possible at KCMX after 21z Wed. The next system will spread light snow back into the region tonight, bringing predominantly MVFR conditions and southerly winds around 10 kt to area terminals 06-09z Thu through the end of the TAF period. Both KCMX and KSAW will have around a 30% chance for intermittent IFR conditions after 12z Thu.

MARINE

Issued at 342 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Winds generally out of the west today come in below 20kts in the east half of the lake and below 10kts in the west. Tonight brings an increase of southwest winds to 20-25 kts ahead of the next system. A cold front Friday morning quickly veers winds out of the north to gales of at least 35-40 kts across the eastern two thirds of the lake; 20-30 kts winds are expected over the far west. There currently is a 20-40% chance for high end gales to 45 kts over the central third of the lake, currently reflected in the forecast given the cold airmass and strong pressure rises on Friday. This also yields heavy freezing spray into Saturday morning when winds fall back to near 20 kts lake-wide.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.