textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures persist through the midweek.

- Next chances for precipitation arrive later this week with 10-40% chance of 0.10" of rain by Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery reveals a stout upper level ridge parked over the central CONUS supporting a sprawling surface high pressure that extends up the Mississippi River Valley up to the western Great Lakes. This has return dry and quiet weather to the region with clear skies across the UP/Lake Superior. These features dominate through the end of the weekend into early this week, moderating temperatures well above normal as southerly return flow kicks in behind the southeastward progression of the surface high. Forecast temps Tuesday-Thursday are expected to climb into the low 50s, some 15-20 degrees above the climo normal for mid November in the UP. The next shot at measurable precip (rain, not snow unfortunately) arrives late this week into early this weekend as troughing in the western US / Rockies lifts into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. At this time, widespread meaningful rain chances look bleak as the NBM highlights a 40-60% chance for amounts >0.01" (the definition of measurable precipitation) across the UP by Thursday night.

Deterministic global models and their ensemble counterparts continue to highlight a period of potentially active weather (rain and snow) returning next weekend into early next week, featuring a deep trough lifting a surface low through the Great Lakes area. Its still way too early to call specifics, as each suite show key differences in upper level and surface feature placement, timing, and strength, but interested parties and pre-Thanksgiving travelers should remain in tune to the extended forecast should a colder, snowier trend result in impacts to travel and holiday festivities.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period under the influence of high pressure. Expect light south-southwest winds around 5 kt for most of the day and through this evening. Winds increase to around 35 kt at FL020 as a southwesterly low level jet moves into the western UP 06-12z Mon. Opted against LLWS in the TAFs for now as profiles remain fairly unidirectional with height and surface winds begin to gust to around 20 kt 14-18z Mon.

MARINE

Issued at 214 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

For Lake Superior: Light winds hold through much of the day before breezy southwesterlies pick up this evening as the high starts to collapse southeastward, increasing to 20 kt sustained and gusts at 25-30 kt with waves achieving 4-6 ft by Monday morning in the western offshore regions of the lake. Elevated winds continue through Monday, and funneling between Thunder Bay, Ontario and Isle Royale may lead to gusts to 35 kt (50% chance) late in the day. Southwesterly flow of 20-25 kt sustained with gusts to 30 kt and waves 5-7 ft in the western lake continue through much of Tuesday. In the eastern lake, southwesterly winds at 15 kt sustained and gusts to 25 kt with waves to 2-4 ft continue Monday into Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, flow backs to south-southwesterly and continues at much the same magnitude (sustained 20 kt and gusts to 25 kt with waves 3-5 ft), with some brief periods of slightly lowered winds. Friday, winds diminish to less than 10 kts lake-wide and waves decrease to less than 3 ft.

For northern Lake Michigan and the Bay of Green Bay: Calm winds and waves hold until Monday morning. Southwesterly flow builds in Monday and remains elevated through Thursday. Waves build to 2-4 ft in the Bay of Green Bay and 3-5 ft in Lake Michigan by early Tuesday, thanks to sustained 20-kt winds and gusts to 25 kt. Winds lay down slightly Wednesday morning (10-15 kt sustained with gusts to 20 kt), but pick up again to 20kt sustained with gusts 25-30 kt later in the day. Meanwhile, waves remain at 2-4 ft in the Bay of Green Bay to and increase from 4-6 ft Wednesday morning to 5-7 ft late Wednesday in northern Lake Michigan. Similar conditions persist Thursday before laying down overnight to less than 10 kts with waves less than 1 ft on the Bay of Green Bay and less than 2 ft in northern Lake Michigan by Friday morning. Calm conditions persist throughout Friday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.