textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Impactful lake effect snow will continue through Friday. Additional accumulation of up to 8 inches in the east and 7 in the west are expected today and tonight. Blowing snow and reduced visibility will also make travel hazardous.

- Coldest air of the season and since January, 2019, will create dangerous cold conditions tonight through at least Saturday morning across Upper Michigan. Temperatures will remain below zero tonight through at least Saturday for most of Upper Michigan.

- Temperatures below -15F and wind chills near -40F are likely tonight with similar conditions expected Friday night.

- Those with outdoor plans, especially tonight into Saturday morning should take extra precautions to limit their time outside. Do not forget pets!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Latest GOES Water Vapor imagery continues to highlight a broad trough and negative height anomaly stretching across much of North America. At the surface, a surface front stretching south into the Great Lakes not only supported a surge in snowfall earlier along the boundary, but is allowing cold air advection aloft. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis suggests 850mb temps ranging from -16C in the east to - 22C over western Lake Superior. The colder airmass upstream will continue moving over the region, supporting not only a cold overnight period, but continued lake effect where the DGZ progressively becomes sub-terrainian. Lake effect snow is currently observed across the west half, with stronger showers observed via webcam in the Keweenaw and along the Spine. Stronger bands are also observed by MQT and CASMR radar over eastern Lake Superior pressing southeastward into eastern Upper Michigan. Temperatures currently range from the teens to single digits above zero, where the warmest conditions are in the Keweenaw and by the lakeshores.

Not much has changed from the previous forecast given that guidance continues to highlight that real changes are not anticipated in the synoptic structure until Saturday, when the trough compresses northward. This reinforces our very high confidence (100%) of impactful and dangerous cold over the region and continued lake effect snow going into the weekend. Those with outdoor plans, especially tonight into Saturday morning should take extra precautions to limit their time outside. Do not forget pets! Additionally, pipes freezing will be a concern where the snowpack is low, including places like Escanaba, Menominee, and Manistique.

Guidance continues to highlight 850mb temps falling to around -33C tonight. These dangerous conditions will consist of overnight lows between -10F to at least -25F tonight through Saturday morning, with highs Friday remaining below zero, potentially below -10F in the interior west. Elevated winds will also result in wind chill values from -20 to -40F tonight into Friday morning and -15 to -35F Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Enough warming occurs Saturday for the lakeshores and east half to climb into the single digits above zero while the interior west peaks close to zero. Cold conditions continue Saturday night with widespread -5 to -20F lows. Everyone looks to break above zero Sunday. Sunday night will be another colder night, but overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night currently only fall to near -5F in the coldest spots. Highs next week look to climb into the low to mid teens, save for Monday, when the west half may remain in the single digits above zero. Given the slight downward trend in wind chill calculations for tonight in Delta, Alger, and Schoolcraft, opted to expand the Extreme Cold Warnings into these counties and moved up the start time to the inherited Warnings in the west to 0z tonight. Otherwise, no changes were made to the inherited Cold Weather Advisory for Luce tonight or for Friday's Extreme Cold Watch. When comparing the latest forecast to the period of record, this will be the coldest airmass over the region since January 2019.

For snow, showers will continue through at least Friday night in the traditional northwest wind snowbelt regions. Given how cold the airmass will be, land breezes will likely enhance low level convergence offshore of the Michigamme Highlands, thereby increasing snowfall rates across Alger, northern Schoolcraft, and Luce counties in this period. Snow amounts are tricky, given that the increasing cold air will effectively remove the DGZ from the equation, resulting in very fine snow crystals. Modeled amounts though suggest continuous ~2 inches every 6 hours or so though today and tonight. The cold air and increasing pressure gradient will also increase winds today, resulting in 20-35 mph gusts for most of the region, with the highest speeds anticipated in the Keweenaw and by Lake Superior. These elevated winds are expected to lighten through the day Friday. These winds, in combination with the fine snowflakes, will result in very low visibilities in snow showers. Periodic white out conditions should be expected, especially in areas exposed to the northwest and by Lake Superior. Given the combination threat of blowing snow, low visibilities to 0.5 miles or less, and up to 0.5 inches per hour at times, opted to extend the inherited Winter Weather Advisories in the east to 12z Friday. In the west, no changes were made to the Advisory at this time. On Saturday, drier air looks to move in with southwest flow helping to focus the shower activity only into the Keweenaw and eastern Upper Michigan. Off and on lake effect snow showers look to continue next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

NW wind lake effect SHSN will remain the weather pattern throughout this TAF period, which will impact CMX most, followed by IWD and then SAW. CMX will be 50-70 percent likely to be at or near airport minimum vis until at least 00Z this evening as NW gusts to near 30 kt will blow around fine snow particles that are particularly efficient at dropping visibility. Probabilities of near-minimums visibility overnight and into Friday morning have increased from near 20 percent to near 40 percent with deterministic guidance trending lower as well. At IWD, weaker snowbands will lead to probabilities of LIFR visibility is lower (1-in-3 or less), though chances of 500 ft or less ceilings overnight is 40 percent and increasing. Current guidance suggests that after the current wave of snowfall approaching SAW at 18Z passes this evening, chances of lake effect snow bands passing back over the area will be 20 percent or less with bands mostly remaining in Alger County to the east. 30-40 percent chances of snow return to the forecast Friday morning to early afternoon at SAW, with the presence of snowbands bringing MVFR ceilings.

MARINE

Issued at 229 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Guidance continues to handle the current and coming pattern well, and not many changes were made to this forecast. Guidance continues to suggest elevated winds of 25 to 35 knots along with heavy freezing spray will persist through Saturday. Best chances for gales of 35 knots will be today into Friday morning across the central and eastern portions of the lake. Meanwhile, the heavy freezing spray will impact the entire lake for the same time period due to the strength of the cold air mass. Winds finally weaken below 20 kts across the western half of the lake Friday night followed by the remainder of the lake on Saturday morning. Winds will then stay below 20 knots until Sunday with a gradual uptick above 25 knots starting Sunday night.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ001>004- 084.

Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for MIZ001>005-009>012-084.

Extreme Cold Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ006-007- 085.

Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ006-013-014-085.

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ007.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for LSZ162.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Friday for LSZ240>242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243>248-264-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for LSZ265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.