textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated lake effect rain/snow showers linger across the central and east this morning.

- Dry weather expected this weekend and beyond as temperatures rebound to unseasonably warm values (upper 40s/low 50s) by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery reveals lake effect clouds across the UP however radar returns have gone quiet. Incoming ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will continue to lower lake induced inversion heights below 5k ft, reducing the chance for anymore meaningful lake effect snow/rain showers through the rest of the day. A weak embedded trough rotating around the eastern seaboard closed low swings just east of the UP this morning, potentially reinforcing some lake LES showers to the central and eastern UP, however, with reduce inversion heights and bufkit soundings revealing drier sub-cloud layers, thinking nothing more than a few isolated flurries will be seen. Otherwise, temps in the 30s to low 40s are expected today, warmest south. Clearing skies and light winds tonight may result in western and interior central UP temps falling into the teens and 20s tonight, though this may be contingent on how quickly we can rid lake effect clouds from west to east.

High pressure dominates the forecast from Sunday into the first half of next week, and as such expect dry, mild weather to prevail through at least Wednesday. Temperatures increase back into the 40s for most locations by Sunday, then reside well above seasonal norms with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s for much of next week. The next low looks to lift out of the Plains in the Wednesday night- Thursday time frame, but PoPs remain low for now as the bulk of the medium range ensemble guidance depicts this system passing north into Ontario. Guidance does hint at another system bringing more widespread precipitation back to the UP towards next weekend, but confidence in any specific details remains low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 623 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

MVFR and IFR conditions can be expected at CMX/SAW through the TAF period. MVFR conditions at IWD will give way to VFR in the late afternoon. Onshore flow will continue to bring lake effect clouds from Lake Superior across much of the central and eastern U.P. Conditions will start as IFR at CMX but diurnal heating should help raise cigs to MVFR this afternoon. Overnight the flow becomes light, upslope with model soundings showing deep saturation through the boundary layer, approx 3kt AGL. Cigs will fall back to IFR at CMX and SAW as well. This could also be sufficient for freezing drizzle and or fog to develop at the CMX/SAW tonight but confidence is low (~40% chance) so did not make mention in the TAF at this point.

MARINE

Issued at 334 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Breezy northerlies 15-25 kts hold for one more day before falling below 15 kts area wide tonight through Sunday as sfc high pressure settles overhead. As the aforementioned sfc high slides across the Midwest and troughing returns to the Plains, periods of gusty S to SW winds 15-30 kts will be the rule through much of the coming workweek. The chance for Gales >35 kts remain low (<20%) at any given time. A few gales to 35 kts are possible Monday PM as funneling occurs between Isle Royale and Thunder Bay.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.