textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread snowfall persists through the morning, largely ending from west to east into the afternoon. Lake effect snow lingers in the north-central and east into the early evening.

- Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for much of the western, central and eastern U.P. for an additional 4-6" of snowfall, with up to 10" over the higher elevations of Marquette County. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect outside of the warning area for 2- 5" of snowfall.

- Another widespread snowfall and windier event will likely impact the U.P. Thursday night and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Early this morning, deepening low pressure is centered over north- central IL, with a surface warm front extending northeastward into the southern LP. The storm continues to make its track near southern Lake Michigan through the early morning hours, then through the LP to finally reach southern Lake Huron this coming afternoon. Meanwhile, closer to home, the band of snow is parked over the western to north-central UP, where strongest 850-700mb frontogenesis is currently analyzed. The central and eastern UP are experiencing what is to be a brief period of mainly dry weather through the pre- dawn hours. We are feeling the impacts of the dry slot nosing into the UP; with the increasing lack of ice crystals, some freezing drizzle is occurring at times even over the western and north- central UP. However, this is expected to remain low-impact and fleeting, with model soundings indicating that we saturate again in the DGZ over the next couple of hours.

As the surface low continues to make its northeastward trek this morning, expect the deformation zone and strongest FGEN to slide from west to north across the UP through the morning, with the band of light to moderate snow pivoting eastward again in turn. Northeasterly winds gradually turn more northerly throughout the morning. This will keep Marquette county under the gun for the heaviest snowfall accumulations given lake and terrain enhancement. There, snowfall rates increase to around 0.50-0.75in/hr, or even to 1in/hr (30% chance) as we head into the morning commute. Elsewhere, snowfall rates generally top out around 0.25-0.50in/hr. Snow tapers off from west to east into the afternoon, but as winds shift northerly, expect lingering lake effect across the north-wind snow belts of the north-central and eastern UP into the evening. Additional snow totals generally up to 4-6" are expected over the warned area, with higher amounts up to 8-10" over northern Marquette county, inland of Superior. Over the advisory areas, another 2-5" is expected. Meanwhile, winds are expected to pick up into the daytime hours, with northerly gusts around 20-25mph becoming common. Higher gusts near 30mph will be possible closer to Superior, with blowing snow becoming a concern there as well.

Though much of the UP is experiencing a brief reprieve, have kept the winter headlines in place as snow is expected to pick up again over the next couple of hours.

We will get a break from the snow on tonight into Thursday with seasonal temperatures, highs in the low 30s north to mid 30s south and lows in the teens.

Thursday night through Friday a vigorous clipper low will push through the U.P. bringing widespread moderate to heavy snowfall with it. A period of one inch per hour snow rates looks likely during the overnight hours followed by light to moderate snow on Friday, especially in the north wind lake effect belts. At this time snowfall amounts look to range from 6-12". NBMv5 probabilities for >6" of snowfall is 70-90% over most of the U.P., with the highest probs over the terrain. While the axis of heaviest snow lays across the U.P. at this time small shifts in the track of the system are still likely, stay tuned to future forecasts and messaging. Will note that the NAM, now going out through Friday night, takes on a more northerly track compared to its colleagues, bringing the surface low right over Lake Superior instead of the UP or northern WI.

Another break in the snow comes for Friday night into the first half of Saturday before snow chances increase again. Model guidance remains split on how a low pressure will evolve as it moves from the Oklahoma panhandle to the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. The GFS/GEFS is determined to move the system along faster and keep it further south, largely missing the area. The ECMWF/ENS are slower and stronger with the system, with a more northerly solution. The ECMWF solution would have a significant late winter storm over the U.P.

Monday into Tuesday will see much colder air move into the area with highs only in the teens Monday and low to mid 20s Tuesday. CPC continues to highlight better chances for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for days 6-10.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 134 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Widespread snow is present across much of the UP early this morning, however, a dry slot noted in regional satellite and radar analysis has resulted in a lull in activity and briefly returned MVFR conditions to the west. Expecting IFR/LIFR to be the predominant flight category into daybreak as the dry slot works east and snow fills back into all terminals.

Periods of LIFR have already been observed, but the best chances for prevailing LIFR will be at SAW and CMX after 14Z, with temporary LIFR also forecast for IWD around that time. Expect gusty winds throughout this period, first out of the east and northeast early this morning becoming more out of the north to northwest for today, with the highest gusts around 25-30 kt at SAW around 16Z-22Z, which could cause a blowing snow threat as well as the intensity of the falling snow. In the evening hours, snow moves out and improvement to MVFR and then VFR is expected, though the models have minor differences in timing this improvement.

MARINE

Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low pressure tracks over southern Lake Michigan early this morning, then northeast to Lake Huron by tonight. Amid a tightening pressure gradient, northeast winds are increasing to 25kts over the eastern half of the lake while coming in generally around 20kts in the western arm. As the low pulls away today winds become northerly to 30 kt, along with a few gusts to gale possible this evening. The next storm system approaches the region on Thursday, with southeast gales likely by Thursday night (60% chance), shifting north Friday morning before falling below 20kt on Saturday morning. There is a potential for another winter storm to bring another round of gales Sunday into Monday (50-60% chance), though there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding track and timing of this next system. As colder air moves into the area Sunday into Monday heavy freezing spray will develop across much of the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for MIZ001-003-012.

Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ005.

Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006- 007-085.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ013- 014.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.