textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers will linger over the higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga Counties through early Saturday morning with minimal additional accumulation.

- Dry weather expected this weekend and beyond as temperatures rebound to unseasonably warm values (upper 40s/low 50s) by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Afternoon RAP analysis shows large scale troughing remaining over eastern Canada but beginning to shift east of the Great Lakes as the trough axis now extends from Newfoundland to the Ohio River Valley. Radar shows lake effect snow ongoing over Upper Michigan centered on Baraga, Marquette, and western Alger Counties, but the Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire as accumulations today have been minimal with temperatures hovering near or slightly above freezing over the higher terrain and in the mid to upper 30s closer to the lake and over the eastern half of the UP. Lake effect showers will continue to diminish in coverage and intensity through this evening as 850 mb temps continue to warm and inversion heights crash down to around 5 kft, per latest model soundings. Showers could linger into early Saturday morning over the higher terrain as one more weak shortwave drops down the back side of the trough tonight, but additional accumulations will be minimal.

Saturday looks to be dry across most of the area as high pressure begins to build in from the Plains. Can't rule out a few sprinkles in the east as cool northerly flow persists over warm lake surface temperatures around 7-9 C, but these will pose little or no sensible weather impacts. NBM continues to struggle with temperatures, but with mostly cloudy skies remaining over the area through Saturday would expect daytime highs to struggle to get out of the 30s in most locations tomorrow.

High pressure dominates the forecast from Sunday into the first half of next week, and as such expect dry, mild weather to prevail through at least Wednesday. Temperatures increase back into the 40s for most locations by Sunday, then reside well above seasonal norms with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s for much of next week. The next low looks to lift out of the Plains in the Wednesday night- Thursday time frame, but PoPs remain low for now as the bulk of the medium range ensemble guidance depicts this system passing north into Ontario. Guidance does hint at another system bringing more widespread precipitation back to the UP towards next weekend, but confidence in any specific details is very low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1226 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Lake effect showers have ended at CMX/IWD and will be only temporarily over SAW through around 10Z. Besides brief IFR conditions at SAW (and surprising FEW/SCT low cloud coverage at CMX), MVFR prevails at all sites to begin this TAF. As high pressure approaches the west, IWD will see conditions over 50% likely to improve to VFR by 20Z. Lingering low level moisture will keep CMX and SAW in at least MVFR conditions through the period, with SAW most likely to see IFR (up to 50% chances each hour from 10Z through 15Z). CMX also carries 20% chances to sporadically drop to IFR in the early morning hours, though confidence is too low to include in this TAF issuance. Expect winds around 5 kt or less at IWD/CMX with north to northwest winds occasionally above 10 kt at SAW.

MARINE

Issued at 226 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Observations show northerly winds generally gusting in the 15-20 kt range over western Lake Superior and the 20-25 kt range over the eastern half this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories will expire in the west later this evening as wave heights gradually subside below 4 ft, but advisory level conditions will linger in the eastern nearshores into Saturday afternoon as winds and waves are slower to diminish in the eastern lake. Small crafts will also expire over northern Lake Michigan and the Bay of Green Bay later this evening as northerly winds diminish. Light winds of 15 kt or less are expected over Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan for Sunday. Southerly winds potentially increase to 25-30 kt on Monday afternoon over the western arm of Lake Superior as the gradient tightens between low pressure deepening in the lee of the Rockies and strong high pressure over the eastern CONUS. Southwest winds of 25-30 kt continue in the western arm through Wednesday as the low slowly moves to the Dakotas. Winds will be lighter over northern Lake Michigan for the first half of next week, generally around 15-20 kt, with and 20-25 kt winds over the eastern half of Lake Superior.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.