textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for precipitation are expected into the coming week. Thunderstorms will be possible at times, but severe weather is not expected.

- Below normal temperatures continue this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Another embedded shortwave within the persistent Ontario troughing has almost made its way across the UP this morning, as noted by regional GOES water vapor imagery. Meager forcing associated with this wave has allowed scattered light rain/drizzle showers to develop, lasting a bit longer than previously forecasted, though no more than a few hundreths have been measured here at WFO MQT. Upstream, localized ridging is bringing drier air and clearing skies to the far western lake and UP, which is slated to progress eastward and scour out remaining cloudy skies through the evening. As per usual, daytime has have managed to stick much cooler than the NBM, only peaking into the 50s to near 60. With some increased sunshine from west to east this evening, there may be a brief way up before overnight temps fall back into the 40s away from the lakeshores with decreasing winds.

After a brief quiet period tonight through Monday morning, another embedded wave rotates through the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes tomorrow afternoon. Combined forcing from this wave and building diurnal instability may support the development of afternoon showers/thunderstorms, particularly across the south- central and east half. Increased coverage of shower/storm activity is possible by Monday evening/night as the trough axis presses through the forecast area. Additional shower/thunderstorm development is expected Tuesday as this associated shortwave reflects a weak surface low through Lower Michigan. Deterministic guidance then hones in on a stronger shortwave and upper level jet streak descending out of the Canadian Rockies into the Midwest Wednesday through Thursday. The main forcing for precipitation remains south of the UP, thus ensemble probability for rainfall amounts >0.5" by Thursday morning remain stalled between 40-60%, greatest across the southern half of the UP. Broad troughing is expected to continue over central/eastern Canada going into the next weekend, suggesting daily rain/thunderstorm chances should be expected with continued below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 157 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

MVFR ceilings are lifting and scattering at KIWD and KCMX but will linger at KSAW until mid-afternoon; then VFR conditions will be realized at all three sites until the end of the period. Light rain has nearly moved out from KSAW, so did not include in TAFs. Blustery WNW winds will continue at all three sites until diurnal mixing decreases with lower sun angles, with KCMX being the windiest with gusts 25-30 kt. Winds will pick up again tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 301 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Elevated winds between 20-30 kts observed this afternoon die down below 15 kts tonight. Daytime mixing and another shortwave working across the area tomorrow will pick up W to SW winds between 20-30 kts, greatest in the western lake and around the Keweenaw Peninsula. Lake wide calmer winds below 20 kts then settle through the middle of the week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.