textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak disturbance will bring light, mixed precipitation across the area this morning. Snow amounts remain below one inch, with a glaze of ice also possible in some locations.

- Another weak system brings the chance for another dusting of snow on Friday. Then drier with cold overnight lows into the weekend.

- Daytime highs rebound well above freezing this weekend into next week, supporting gradual snowmelt across the U.P.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery shows the latest in a series of weak upper level disturbances approaching Upper Michigan from the west, with associated radar echos noted upstream over northern MN. At the surface, the axis of an inverted trough extends from a low center over the northern Plains into northern Wisconsin. Mixed precipitation will continue to spread into the U.P. from the west this morning, but the area of greatest FGEN forcing looks to remain over northern WI per the latest analysis. As such, model QPF trends have adjusted slightly southward and by and large keep the heaviest precipitation just south of the state line this morning with the exception of Menominee County. Therefore expect precipitation over the U.P. this morning to be rather low impact in nature, with snow amounts generally staying below one inch across the area today (10- 20% chance to exceed one inch per latest HREF guidance). Could also see some pockets of light freezing rain across the south-central U.P. this morning as model soundings continue to depict a shallow warm layer aloft, but don't expect more than a glaze of ice in any one location. Some locations will see mostly rain, particularly the areas of heaviest QPF across Menominee County where temperatures remain in the mid 30s as of 3 AM EDT Thursday.

Precipitation will have largely departed the area by mid afternoon, leaving mostly cloudy conditions in place across Upper Michigan. Temperatures this afternoon will be a bit cooler than recent days in the wake of this morning's system, struggling to reach freezing across the northern tier of the U.P. and only getting into the mid to upper 30s across south-central and along the WI border. Yet another weak disturbance will transit the Great Lakes on Friday. Temperatures will generally be cold enough top support all snow with this feature, but meager QPF values will once again limit any accumulations below an inch across the area. Expect mainly dry conditions from the weekend into early next week with daytime highs rebound back above freezing as ridging amplifies just enough over the Plains to shift the shortwave parade north of the region. The next potential system to impact the region arrives Tuesday or Wednesday of next week as guidance hints at a system lifting out of the central Rockies, but confidence in even the broader details of this scenario remains very low at this time. Will continue to monitor as NBM probabilistic guidance does depict around a 20% chance for greater than 4 inches of snow across the U.P. at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 137 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Conditions continue to deteriorate early this morning as yet another shortwave and associated cold front move through the area. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions to become predominantly IFR by Thu 09Z as wintry precipitation overspreads the U.P. A mix of freezing rain and snow will mainly be concentrated over IWD and SAW through this morning. So, continued to keep precip mention out of CMX. Nonetheless, CMX will still encounter MVFR/IFR cig and visibility restrictions. In addition, IFR/LIFR fog will be a threat at SAW through the morning due to a strengthening inversion. Do not expect improvements until after Thu 22Z at all TAF sites.

MARINE

Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The chance for gales remains low (less than 20%) through the weekend with a series of weak systems moving through the Upper Great Lakes. Winds will ramp up again today, supporting another round of small craft headlines over nearshore zones of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan as winds increasing to 30kt with waves of 5-9 ft over the eastern half of Superior. An expansive area of high pressure builds into the Upper Great Lakes from Canada for Friday and Saturday with west-northwest winds to 30kt diminishing Saturday afternoon. Early to mid next week low pressure will move from the Northern Rockies to the Central Plains. A tightening pressure gradient will bring strengthening easterly winds to 30kt and a 30-40% chance for gales over the eastern half of the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.