textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Daytime highs above freezing today will support gradual snowmelt across the U.P., which will cause river levels to gradually rise.

- Tonight through Tuesday, a pair of low pressures could bring thunderstorms to the southern U.P., a few of which may be strong-to- severe. The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe hail for the southern UP. For the northern U.P., a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow is possible; that being said, expect accumulations to be light.

- Snowfall is expected to return to the U.P. Wednesday night through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

As weak zonal flow sets up over the region this morning, expect partly cloudy skies to continue across the area, increasing in spatial extent with time today as two shortwave lows approach the Great Lakes. While we had temperatures get as high as the lower 60s in the interior west yesterday afternoon, with zonal flow keeping temperatures aloft mainly static, expect highs today to not be as warm as they were yesterday. Instead, with the increasing cloud cover with time, expect highs by this afternoon to be limited to mainly the 40s to lower 50s, save for maybe the upper 30s along the Lake Superior shoreline from the Keweenaw eastward. Given the fairly 'warm' temperatures today, expect to see some more gradual snowmelt across the region, and thus gradual river rises.

As the two aforementioned shortwave lows, one a Clipper moving through the Northern Plains and the other a low lifting off of the Colorado Rockies, move towards the Great Lakes region tonight, expect warm frontogenesis to begin building over the U.P. or further north over Lake Superior/northern Ontario this evening. Should the warm front be further south and over the U.P., expect thunderstorm chances to decrease across the south central tonight through Tuesday as the warm sector will be too far to our south. In this scenario, the chance for wintry precipitation will increase over the north central, west, and Keweenaw, mainly for freezing rain. In addition, chances for sleet and snow will also increase over the Keweenaw. Yet, even in this situation, accumulations are generally expected to be light. That being said, there may be enough ice/wintry precipitation to warrant a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight into Tuesday. But with confidence in ice amounts reaching a tenth of an inch too low, decided to punt winter weather headline decisions to the dayshift at this time. Now, should the warm front be further north either over Lake Superior or even as far north as northern Ontario, expect generally a cold rain across almost all of the area save for portions of the Keweenaw at times. In addition, the chance for thunderstorms will increase over the south central U.P., including the chances for hail and heavy rainfall as the precipitation in the warm sector will be more convective in nature; some of the thunderstorms in the south central could be strong as is highlighted by SPC's Marginal Risk over Menominee County for tonight and Tuesday. Another 'X-factor' with the potential precipitation tonight through Tuesday; given the phasing of the two shortwave lows, there is a real (20 to 50%) chance that we will be dry slotted and receive very little liquid as the lows phase and pass through the Great Lakes on Tuesday. This 'X-factor' has a higher chance of occurring if the warm front sets up north of Upper Michigan. Once the cold front of the lows comes through on Tuesday, there may be a changeover to lake enhanced snow showers over the north wind snow belts late Tuesday. However, with high pressure ridging quickly building in behind the cold front, expect the snow showers to be fairly light, with accumulations over the north wind snow belts being an inch or less. As the high pressure crests over the U.P. on Wednesday, expect the last of the then lake effect snow showers to end by the afternoon hours (if they occur).

Active weather continues as we head into Thursday. As a shortwave low lifts from the Southern Plains into Lower Michigan Wednesday through Thursday, expect remnant cold air aloft and a more northerly track of the low to allow snowfall to the return to the area Wednesday night through Thursday. Currently, it looks like SLRs will be in the lower to mid-teens as a few inches fall over mainly the central and east; chances range from 40% to 65% for over 3 inches of snowfall between Wednesday night and Friday evening across the area.

Behind this snow event, a potentially impactful early April snowstorm could occur this weekend. While the chance for this is still low, it is increasing as highlighted by the rise in the Shift- to-Tails in the European EFI over the western U.P. this weekend. While we may still see just convection or mainly rainfall this weekend, with the track of the low converging closer to our area amongst the medium range guidance, the risk for an impactful snowfall event for at least portions of the U.P. is increasing; we will continue to monitor this situation as it evolves.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 729 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through today. However, the next low pressure will bring flight restrictions by Tue 06Z as -fzra and - shsn overspread the TAF sites. Initially, MVFR conditions can be expected through Tue 09Z at which point they will deteriorate further to IFR levels. After that, confidence is not high enough for prevailing LIFR, but will carry PROB30s to highlight any LIFR threat at all TAF sites early tomorrow morning. Northeast winds could also gust up to 25 kts at CMX tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less this morning increase from the northeast to east over the far western lake this afternoon as two shortwave lows, one a Clipper moving over the Northern Plains and another a Colorado low lifting through the Central Plains, phase with one another later today through Tuesday, eventually passing through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. Expect winds to increase to 20 to 30 knots across the lake by this evening as the warm front of the lows sets up shop on or near Lake Superior. As the cold front pushes through on Tuesday, expect the winds to back to the northwest to north as they decrease to 20 to 25 knots. In addition, freezing spray returns across portions of the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, with high pressure ridging building in quickly behind the cold front, expect the winds to drop down to 20 knots or less again by Wednesday afternoon.

Don't expect the light winds to hang around for very long as another shortwave low lifts from the Southern Plains on Wednesday through Lower Michigan on Thursday. As this occurs, expect winds to build from the east Wednesday night through Thursday; there is a 40 to 50% chance for at least low-end (greater than 34 knot) gales across much of the lake Thursday and Thursday night, with the winds progressively backing to the northeast with time. While winds look to slacken slightly on Friday, expect northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots to continue across the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.