textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler/more normal temperatures return for Thursday and Friday.

- Light lake effect rain showers possible over mainly the eastern U.P. for the next couple of days. Expect little in the way of accumulations.

- Well above normal temperatures expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

As the cold sector of a low over northern Ontario rolls through the area this morning, local observations are showing winds veer to the west and northwest with time, with shots of CAA arriving today and again tonight into Thursday morning. These shots of CAA will bring light lake effect rain showers back over the northwest wind belts, mainly over the east. Expect the rainfall to be rather light, no more than a few hundreths of an inch. While some lightning could be seen in some of the rain showers today into Thursday, expect it to be rather rare due to the limited instability really only found in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. While the strong lapse rates near the sfc will keep high temperatures in the 60s to potentially even lower 70s across the area today, the cooler air from the train of CAA brings more normal Fall-like temperatures to the sfc Thursday and Friday as the daytime highs only reach the mid 50s to mid 60s on Thursday and the 60s on Friday as some WAA is seen during the latter half of the day. Otherwise, expect lows generally in the 30s to potentially upper 20s tonight and Thursday night across the interior areas. Outside of the rain and cooler temperatures for the latter portion of the work week, expect breezy west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph today and Thursday across the U.P., highest along the Lake Superior shoreline.

Moving into the weekend time frame a low pressure lifting off of the Rockies in Alberta splits into two separate lows, one moving east along the Canadian Prairies/Northern Plains and another that continues sliding southwards near the Front Range, phasing with another low from the Pacific in the Desert Southwest early next week. While we should be setup under warm air from the Southern Plains, with a tropical disturbance moving into the Southeastern U.S this weekend that lifts into the Lower Great Lakes early next week, expect mainly dry weather to continue over the U.P. and Upper Great Lakes this weekend into potentially early next week. Thus, while the European and NBM ensembles are showing a strong signal for well above normal temperatures (highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s), we should remain precipitation-free until early next week at the earliest. While there are some questions on how dry the airmass will be this weekend, there may enough moisture within said airmass advecting in to prevent elevated fire weather conditions as some gusty southerly winds can be expected via a robust LLJ (potentially 50+ knots). Rainfall may return early next week as wrap-around moisture could move back in from the north via CAA from Canada.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period. So, main impact continues to be gusty westerly winds. Wind gusts up to 25 kts are expected at all sites with earliest onset at CMX by Wed 13Z. Elsewhere, expect that uptick in winds at IWD and SAW closer to early afternoon. In addition, considered adding lake effect rain shower mention late in TAF period, but will hold off for now until confidence in timing and location increases.

MARINE

Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Lake Superior: West to northwest winds build to 20 to 30 kts today and continue through Thursday as CAA cycles through the Upper Great Lakes the next couple of days; while not expected, a few rogue gales up to 35 kts could theoretically be seen today through Thursday as the REFS shows up to a 25% chance of them occurring. While some lake effect rain showers may produce some lightning at times over the eastern lake, given that the instability is limited to the boundary layer the lightning should be rather rare. With sfc high pressure ridging returning late this week, expect the winds to decrease to 20 kts or less again by Thursday night and to remain that way through Friday. With WAA returning to the area late this week, expect winds to pick up from the southeast and south to 20 to 30 kts by Saturday, with a 10% chance of gales up to 35 kts (LREF). Moving into Sunday, the winds turn more southwesterly while dwindling down closer to 20 to 25 kts.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: CAA moving in today increases winds from the northwest to 15 to 20 kts today, which continue into Thursday via another shot of CAA before dropping down to 15 kts or less Thursday night as sfc high pressure builds back into the area. However, don't expect the lighter winds to last all that long as WAA returning late this week brings southerly winds of 20 to 30 kts back across the area by Saturday; the latest LREF shows up to a 20% chance for gales up to 35 kts. The winds veer more towards the southwest Saturday night into Sunday, dwindling down to 20 to 25 kts as it does so.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.