textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to moderate lake effect snow continues through tonight over the north wind snow belts. Most areas can expect 1 to 4 inches of additional snow, but high terrain areas north of US-41 in Marquette and Baraga counties could see up to 7 inches.

- Wind gusts up to 40 mph by Lake Superior through this evening will result in poor visiblity at times due to the combination of snow and blowing snow.

- Confidence continues to grow for widespread 2 to 8 inches of snowfall Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Highest amounts are expected eastern Delta and Schoolcraft counties.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Snow has been the name of today's game in the UP as an upper level low slowly migrates through the Great Lakes. Northerly flow with 850mb temps currently between -16C in the west and -12C in the east, per SPC mesoanalysis, have supported a transition to lake effect snow showers as an early morning surface low near Lake Huron got gobbled by a deepening nor'easter. Additional cold air advection is anticipated this afternoon, allowing 850mb temps to fall to near - 18C by tonight. Shower activity has been observed central and west by webcams and surface stations while drier air over Luce and eastern Alger and Schoolcraft counties has kept those spots mostly flake free so far. Temperatures have been observed in the upper teens to low 20s central and west while clear skies have allowed the east to warm into the upper 20s.

This pattern will continue this afternoon, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of snowfall expected north-central and west with gusty northerly winds of 20-40 mph region wide. Strongest winds are anticipated near Lake Superior and in the Keweenaw by mid-afternoon and this evening, resulting in a heightened risk for blowing snow concerns in open areas exposed to northerly winds, especially M-28 between Harvey and Munising. An additional 1 to 4 inches looks most likely through tonight for most, with higher amounts up to 7 minutes confined to high terrain of Baraga northern Marquette counties. Will continue the inherited Winter Weather Advisories without any changes, with all counties ending at 6z tonight except Marquette, which lingers to 12z.

Lake effect and breezy winds are anticipated to diminish through the day Monday, perhaps yielding another inch or two in the high terrain spots between L'Anse to Munising. Temperatures look to peak in the teens, save the low 20s south-central after overnight temps bottom out near zero interior west, near 10F central and by the lakeshores, and single digits elsewhere. Mid-upper level ridge moves through the Upper Great Lakes Monday night, with a clipper diving through the Upper Midwest hot on its heels. This deepening low pressure will bring the forecast area widespread snow Tuesday into Tuesday evening alongside gusty southerly winds becoming northwesterly. This northwesterly flow will continue Wednesday as another round of lake effect snow sets up Tuesday night, then diminishes from west to east Wednesday. Latest GEFS and EC ensemble system suggests widespread 40- 90 % chance of exceeding 3 inches into Wednesday evening and upwards of 20% chance in eastern Delta, Schoolcraft, and Alger, where southerly flow may enhance snowfall. Latest NBM suggests the probability of 6+ inches if closer to 60% in the east and along the spine closer to 40%. Overall, confidence in a widespread 2 to 8 inches is growing based on these probabilities and latest deterministic guidance.

High pressure will filter through Ontario Wednesday night and Thursday, thereby keeping impacts from another system diving through the central US and lower Midwest primarily to our south. QPF fields of latest GFS and EC both graze the south and east Thursday, but their ensemble counter parts suggests less than 10 percent for an inch of snow. Another clipper and its trailing cold front may move through the region Friday night and Saturday.

Daytime temperatures look to hover below normal for the time of year for most of the week, with upwards of 5 to 10 degree differences possible Wednesday across the west and Thursday across the east. These below normal temperatures peak near 20F or low-mid 20s, while the other half of the region climb into the upper 20s. This contrasts with Friday, which looks to climb well above normal when many locations challenge 40 degrees. Overnight lows favor a similar above and below normal pattern, generally falling into the single digits or teens each night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 621 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

IFR/MVFR flight conditions persist tonight into Monday morning under a north wind lake effect regime. While brief periods of LIFR can't be ruled out at CMX/SAW, probabilities were too low to include in the 0Z TAF issuance. High pressure building in from the west on Monday brings an end to the lake effect pattern and improvement to VFR near the end of the period. The exact timing of that improvement is still a bit blurry yet, but slated for the afternoon hours. North winds gusting to 20-25 kts at CMX/SAW will yield periods of blowing snow as well. Winds gradually taper down through Monday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 207 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Elevated northerly winds have been observed today in the wake of a diminishing system downstream and cold air advection building over the region under a continued stronger pressure gradient. Observed winds have mostly been below 30kts, but high platforms like STDM4 have hit 34kts. Continue to believe that more widespread gales up to 40kts are likely this afternoon, continuing into the evening hours for areas north and east of the Keweenaw Peninsula. With the cold air overhead, these winds will also support heavy freezing spray potential in ice free waters at least through Monday. With this in mind, will maintain the inherited Heavy Freezing Spray and Gale Force Wind Warnings across Lake Superior.

Winds lighten tonight, falling below 20kts from west to east through the day. Lake wide, winds look to be below 20kts by sunset Monday. A deepening clipper moves through the region Tuesday, supporting another period of elevated winds. Current track supports southerly winds increasing Tuesday morning to 35-40kts east of and 20-30 west of the Keweenaw. These quickly become northwesterly in the wake of the system Tuesday evening. Northwesterly flow may include gales by Wednesday morning as another shot of colder air builds in.

As weak ridging moves back into the area late Wednesday, allowing for winds to fall below 20 knots lakewide by Wednesday evening. The light winds look to continue through the day Thursday before another period of elevated winds Friday into Sunday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday for MIZ001>004-006-009.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ005.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for LSZ162.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Monday for LSZ240>248-263>265.

Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for LSZ243>250-264>266.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... None.