textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening.

- Dry weather returns Monday, followed by additional showers and storms on and off through midweek. Strong to severe storms are not expected.

- Temperatures come in near normal through the rest of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Afternoon GOES WV imagery indicates a broad troughing pattern across central and eastern Canada with zonal flow over the Great Lakes. A shortwave to the south this morning kept better convective activity over southern WI. As the northern flank of this shortwave energy matches up with a cold front reinforced by the lake breeze this afternoon, some showers and weak storm development is possible within the CWA (20-50% chance). Temps have warmed into the upper 60s to upper 70s atop Tds in the low to mid 60s, yielding SBCAPE of up to around 1000 J/kg over the west and 500 over the east. Low level lapse rates have reached up to 7-7.5 C/km in the west, but mid level lapse rates are lower at 6.5 C/km. Shear will be strong (~40kts), but strong to severe storms are not expected given the more transient forcing. Isolated showers and storms are anticipated into this evening from west to east before dry weather returns the rest of tonight. Probabilities for greater than 0.25 inches of rain are only 10-40%. Some patchy fog is expected tonight, especially where showers occur today. Lows settle into the mid 40s to upper 50s, coldest interior west.

Monday into Monday night remains dry under weak ridging. Highs will be seasonable in the 70s to low 80s under partly sunny skies. Lows Monday night will be slightly warmer in the 50s to low 60s.

The rest of the week sees a slow trend to slightly cooler than normal temps as highs trend toward upper 60s to mid 70s for the end of the work week with lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Shortwaves Tuesday and Wednesday yield chances for showers and storms (25-50% chance) with plenty of timing/coverage uncertainty. Bulk shear will be strong, but instability is not forecast to be very impressive so severe weather is not expected at this time. Finally the broad Canadian troughing pattern breaks down late this week and stronger high pressure returns to the Great Lakes, favoring drier weather into the weekend. PoPs return late Saturday into Sunday as ensembles track a low pressure system into the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

With diminishing rain chances for today, will not include mention at IWD or CMX. And, will highlight with a PROB30 this evening at SAW. Therefore, expect VFR conditions until tonight when fog formation becomes the main impact. Tonight, there is a potential for fog and low stratus to develop once again, with the highest confidence in IFR/LIFR restrictions at SAW. Elsewhere, will trend toward MVFR/IFR restrictions at both IWD and CMX. Expect winds to remain fairly variable throughout the forecast period and below 10 kts. .

MARINE

Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Winds and gusts on Lake Superior generally remain below 20 kts through the forecast period as weak pressure gradients are expected. After today's rain showers, some patchy fog development is expected tonight. Confidence in timing and placement is too low to warrant any Dense Fog Advisories at this time.

Southwest winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to around 20 kts are expected over northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan into early this evening, strongest lakeside. Winds fall off for tonight, holding around 10 kts as they become north Monday morning. Winds and gusts generally remain 15 kts or less the rest of the forecast.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.