textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold again early this morning with temperatures down into the negative teens and wind chills in the -20s to potentially -30s across the western and central UP. Stay bundled up if you have to be outside!

- Lake effect becomes westerly this morning before lifting away this afternoon.

- Lake effect snow showers look to return tonight and continue through the work-week as multiple disturbances pass through the region. We may see some blowing snow and moderate (1/2 inch per hour) snowfall rates from time-to-time.

- Cold weather persists through the end of the week, with daytime highs in the single digits to teens and overnight lows mostly staying below or near zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

The light lake effect snow showers over the northwest to west- northwest wind snow belts this morning (as seen on radar and satellite imagery) become westerly later before lifting away from Upper Michigan by this afternoon as another shortwave low approaches from Manitoba today. With the air remaining dry (even with delta-Ts in the 20s C), no more than an inch or two is expected in the northwest to west wind snow belts today. In addition to the lake effect, hazardous cold weather continues through this morning as sfc observations show temperatures already cooling down into the negative teens as of 2 AM EST. With the light winds bringing wind chills down into the negative 20s to around negative 30F in the central and west early this morning, frostbite could occur in as little as 10 minutes or less. Therefore, the Cold Weather Advisories will continue until 10 AM EST. While we could see some wind chills down to -20F in the Keweenaw and -25F in Gogebic County Tuesday morning, given that we've been dangerously cold the past few nights/mornings and it's very marginal for just a couple of hours, no additional Cold Weather Advisory will be hoisted up for these areas for late tonight/Tuesday morning at this time.

As the shortwave drops down from Manitoba through Lake Superior tonight through Tuesday morning, expect lake effect snowfall to return over the northwest wind snow belts. While most of the lake effect is still expected to be light thanks to the shortwave being fairly moisture-starved, we could see a few inches fall from the Keweenaw down to the Porkies and from around Munising eastward; we may even see moderate (1/2 inch per hour) snowfall rates at times in some of the heavier snow bands and areas of blowing snow near the Superior lakeshore as most of the atmospheric profile remains colder than the DGZ. However, with sfc temperatures now being warm enough to be in the DGZ, thinking we will have somewhat fluffier snowfall than what we've seen over the past few days; thus, expecting the SLRs to be closer to the mid-teens:1. Therefore, while not expected at this time due to confidence being a little too low at this time, there is a chance we may see low-end Winter Weather Advisory conditions during the overnight hours into Tuesday morning over the northwest wind snow belts due to the hazardous travel conditions; thus, if you need to drive tonight into Tuesday morning, be sure to take it slow if going through the northwest wind snow belts.

Generally light lake effect snowfall continues over Upper Michigan through the rest of the work-week, although some model guidance does hint at a mesolow over the east bringing moderate to potentially even heavy (1+ inch per hour) snowfall rates by the mid-week before the winds veer to the north after another shortwave low rotates through the region and creates an inverted trough over the Upper Midwest. Below normal temperatures also look to continue through most of the rest of the work-week, with highs today through Thursday generally being in the single positive digits to teens and lows being in the single negative digits to around zero. The biggest X- factor for the lake effect this week will be the growing ice over Lake Superior. Should ice growth be greater than predicted, we could see much less lake effect snowfall, and snowfall will be much more limited to the areas near Lake Superior as the latest lake analysis showed ice quickly developing along the southern shoreline. However, should the stronger winds over Lake Superior hinder lake ice development (even despite the below normal temperatures), then we could see some enhanced lake effect snow showers from time-to-time. This may be exasperated by breaks in the ice, which in turn could create 'streams' where latent heat release is occurring in the open areas near the southern shoreline (aided by ice-covered areas surrounding the open waters); should this occur, we could see stronger lake effect bands, but less coverage than expected. Again though, confidence on this is very low at this time given that the extent of the ice development over Lake Superior this week is an unknown variable. Speaking about of which, the stronger winds off of Lake Superior through most of this work-week should bring some areas of blowing snow near the shoreline; don't be surprised to see sharply reduced visibilities in some spots by Lake Superior this week.

Lake effect continues through Friday too as remnant troughing hangs around as high pressure and WAA build in from the west. Eventually, the high wins out and brings drier weather and warmer temperatures with it for this weekend. Expect daytime highs in the 20s by this weekend as lows only drop down into the single positive digits to teens; we may even flirt with high temperatures near freezing by the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 638 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected at IWD and SAW through the afternoon. At CMX lake effect snow showers will bring MVFR cigs and possible period of IFR visby through mid-morning, thereafter VFR is expected for the late morning and afternoon.

A fast moving low pressure will bring a band of light snow through the U.P this evening, lasting about 2 to 4 hours at any given location. MVFR cigs and IFR visby can be expected as this band pushes though at all the TAF sites.

During the overnight lake effect snow will quickly develop at CMX, continuing MVFR and IFR conditions there. At IWD mainly MVFR can be expected overnight, followed by possible IFR visby as lake effect snow showers move in around morning. For SAW conditions should be MVFR overnight and improve to VFR by morning.

MARINE

Issued at 248 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots early this morning increase from the southwest throughout this afternoon as a shortwave low approaches from Manitoba, eventually becoming gales of 35 to potentially even 40 knots by this evening over the western half of the lake. As this occurs, expect heavy freezing spray to spread into the western half and central portions of the lake too. As the shortwave drops through the lake tonight, expect the winds to become northwesterly to 25 to 30 knots behind it; a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots cannot be ruled out, mainly over the eastern half of the lake where there is up to a 20% chance for low-end gales to 35 knots according to the REFS.

Expect the heavy freezing spray concerns to continue through the mid- week as the gusty northwest winds weaken to 20 to 25 knots by Wednesday before becoming northerly behind another shortwave low on Thursday. The gusty northerly winds continue through Friday as remnant troughing remains over the region before high pressure pushing in from the west eventually wins and calms the winds down to 20 knots or less by Saturday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ002>006-009>013-084.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday for LSZ162.

Gale Warning from 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ162-263-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ240>244-263- 264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ245>248-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.