textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to moderate snowfall is likely Saturday and Saturday night. A widespread 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected with some enhancement near Lake Superior up to 6 inches. Snowfall and gusty winds up to 35 mph may make travel hazardous in some areas.

- Active weather pattern continues into next week with periodic snowfall trailed by lake effect and temperatures near-normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Afternoon GOES water vapor imagery and RAP analysis place Upper Michigan in the wake of the 993 mb low and shortwave moving to Quebec this evening. Given that, dry weather persists the rest of today. Northwest winds gusting to 20-35 mph primarily over the east quickly fall off into this evening. Highs this afternoon will be in the 30s.

Looking upstream, the next potential impactful winter weather is on the horizon including a trough and clipper low at 1016 mb over Manitoba and another trough over the Southern Plains. A weak isentropic/WAA forced snowband moves in tonight from the west associated with the clipper low tracking toward Thunder Bay. Light snow is expected with this band, producing 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow over the west half into Saturday morning. Meanwhile the southern wave lifts northeast tonight, eventually phasing with the deeper northern wave on Saturday as a closed low develops. This increases snow showers over the east on Saturday as WAA strengthens. There also is a 15-20% chance for a brief period of preluding freezing drizzle Saturday morning over the east before only snow is expected. Lake enhanced to lake effect snow showers on the back side of the clipper low will boost amounts over the north wind snowbelts into Sunday morning. Some lake enhancement off Lake Michigan is also possible, but will depend on how these systems phase. Totals for Saturday into Sunday morning are as follows: 1-2 inches south- central and interior west, 2-4 inches in Delta and southern Schoolcraft counties, and 3-6 inches in the aforementioned snowbelt areas. Localized amounts up to 7-8 inches may be realized where there is northerly upslope flow (20-40% chance). Pressure rises with a colder airmass descending overhead Saturday night into Sunday could also support gusty northerly winds, particularly near Lake Superior where gusts up to 35 mph are expected. Winter Weather Advisories likely will be needed with the next forecast package as confidence improves regarding how these systems evolve and the resulting placement of the heavier snowfall over the east. Otherwise lows this weekend will be in the teens to mid 20s with highs generally in the 20s.

LES ends Sunday morning as the closed low moves to New England and ridging briefly extends overhead. This is quickly followed up by a shortwave bringing a light round of snow Sunday night into Monday. Amounts with this wave likely will hold below 1 inch. Weak ridging before and after this wave support a warm up with highs back into the 30s Monday/Tuesday, lows Monday night only settle into the 20s.

Ridging over the west coast amplifies next week, supporting persistent northwest flow aloft and a multitude of waves transiting the Great Lakes. A more noteworthy shortwave is anticipated for Tuesday/Tuesday night bringing a stronger clipper low with it somewhere over the Upper Great Lakes. That said, there still is a decent amount of spread in the ensembles regarding track and timing. Guidance hints at another clipper toward the end of the week, but spread is even larger for that system. What seems more supportive is trailing lake effect snow with these systems as 850 mb temps fall to -10C or lower.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

The VFR conditions currently at IWD and CMX will deteriorate over the next several hours as the next disturbance moves through the area. Another round of precipitation will overspread the TAF sites, this time with ptypes in the form of all snow. Cannot rule out periods of LIFR, too, through TAF period in any snow showers that intensify. Wind will remain rather light and variable through this afternoon, but gusting out of the northwest first at CMX late this afternoon followed by IWD and SAW after Sun 05Z.

MARINE

Issued at 350 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Lingering northwest gales to 35 kts over the east will end in the next hour or two, with northwest winds quickly falling below 20 kts from west to east by tonight. Significant wave heights of 8-12 ft over the east quickly fall to 4 ft or less this evening. This will be replaced with southerly 10-20 kt winds tonight.

A clipper system moving in from the northwest merges with a low to the south on Saturday. The tightening pressure gradient and pressure rises on the back side of this will support a period of widespread northerly 20-30 kt winds Saturday night with a few gale force gusts to 35 kts (25-50% chance). Questions on how the clipper low and the low to the south phase together still remain, leaving uncertainty in the placement/timing of any marginal gales which do occur. Also, the period of gales would be brief: ~6hr period. As model guidance hones in on a solution, increasing confidence may warrant a Gale Watch.

North to northwest winds fall to around 15-25 kts Sunday morning, backing southwest and increasing once again to 20-30 kts by Sunday night ahead of the next disturbance. There is a 40-60% chance for gales to 35 kts over the west half of the lake. West winds gradually settle to 15-25 kts on Monday, backing southerly Monday night into Tuesday as a stronger low approaches from the northwest. This deeper low tracks just north of the lake on Tuesday. A colder airmass and strong pressure rises on the back side of the low supporting northerly 25-30 kt winds Tuesday night into Wednesday with 35-40 kt gales possible over the central and eastern lake (30-50% chance). Winds may briefly approach 20 kts Thursday morning, however additional systems from the northwest keep winds elevated (20-30 kts) into the weekend.

Each near-gale or gale event will bring the potential for significant wave heights in excess of 8 ft. Moderate with isolated areas of heavy freezing spray is expected Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected on Wednesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.