textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Daytime highs rebound well above freezing this weekend into early next week, supporting gradual snowmelt across the U.P.

- Light snow showers are possible along the northern U.P. this afternoon.

- Thunderstorms and widespread rainfall is becoming increasingly likely late Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Weak lake effect snow showers slowly erode away and dwindle over the eastern half of the U.P. as high pressure ridging continues to push into the region today; with the northwesterly winds becoming weaker and backing more westerly with time, expect the remaining lake effect showers this morning to push into northern Ontario just north of the Soo. While mostly clear/sunny skies will be seen across a majority of the area during the morning hours today, expect a weak fast-traveling Clipper impulse to potentially bring some light snow showers over the northern half of the U.P. this afternoon. However, with very dry air in the lowest levels of the atmosphere bringing min RHs down into the 20 to 30 percents across the area, evaporation of the snow crystals could prevent any of the snow from reaching the sfc. Thus expect accumulations, if any, to be limited to a dusting as chances for snow to reach the sfc generally ranges from 10% near the Wisconsin border to around 30% near Lake Superior, except closer to 50% over the east this evening. As warm air advection moves in behind the Clipper impulse today, expect temperatures to sharply rise this afternoon, potentially getting into the lower 40s over the west and south central before the sun sets this evening.

With the last of the snow showers ending over the eastern U.P. this evening, expect high pressure ridging Sunday followed by zonal flow on Monday to keep dry conditions over us for early next week. In addition, well above normal temperatures are projected across the area, with highs expected to get into the 50s over the central and west (save maybe the Keweenaw) Sunday and potentially even Monday too; I would not be surprised if the NBM is underdoing the temperatures and highs actually get into the 60s over the interior west and south central on Sunday. High temperatures on Monday are expected to be cooler as clouds build throughout the day ahead of approaching phasing lows from Alberta and Colorado. While the warm temperatures and sunny skies will help to melt the remaining snowpack early this week, with lows projected to get below freezing during the overnight hours, expect the snowmelt to occur gradually. Thus, expect to see gradual river rises early next week.

The next event worth discussing is the aforementioned phasing lows moving into our area around the Tuesday time period. While confidence remains somewhat low on the exact placement of the fronts of the phasing lows, it is possible that we may see precipitation begin entering the U.P. by late Monday afternoon. While we may see a wintry mix of precipitation types (i.e. namely freezing rain, snow, or rain) early on in the event, expect the transition over to all rainfall as the event continues on Monday night through Tuesday. With instability increasing in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere, we may see showers and thunderstorms develop. With MUCAPE values potentially get up to around 500 J/kg, PWATs approaching 1 inch, and strong warm frontogenesis occurring at the 850mb level Monday night into Tuesday morning, we could see some stronger elevated thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday before the cold front pushes through the region. If stronger storms do form, expect the main threats to be heavy rainfall and hail as the temperature inversion from around 1 kft to 5 kft is robust, likely preventing the stronger winds aloft from reaching the sfc. While temperatures during the day on Tuesday have lowered since last night, we could still see highs get into the 40s to potentially around 50 across the area. Given the (expected) convective nature of the precipitation (mainly late Monday night through Tuesday until the cold front pushes through) and warm temperatures and dewpoints, snowmelt may accelerate across the area. However, with the cold front sharply dropping temperatures down below freezing Tuesday night, expect the timing of the (potential) accelerated snowmelt to be limited.

While we may see some weak lake effect snow showers over the north wind snow belts Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the cold front, expect quickly incoming high pressure ridging to cease the lake effect snow showers by late Wednesday. After cooler temperatures are seen on Wednesday, expect temperatures to rise once again as we head towards next weekend, trending from normal to above normal for the latter half of the week. In addition, another low pressure system may impact the U.P. late next week; right now though, predictability on precipitation chances with that system remains low given the model spread that far out on the low's track.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 739 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR will be the main flight category for the duration of the TAF period. However, will carry PROB30 at both CMX and SAW this afternoon for brief MVFR conditions in light snow showers due to a weak disturbance. Currently, winds have already shifted to the southwest at IWD and SAW and will at CMX by mid-morning. Wind gusts up to 25 kts will impact both IWD and CMX this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots, with a few gale force gusts up 40 knots being seen by Stannard Rock, and freezing spray dwindles over Lake Superior today as a Clipper impulse passes through this afternoon and brings warm air advection and high pressure ridging behind it; expect the freezing spray to end over the eastern lake by this afternoon. While we could see south to southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots over the eastern lake late this afternoon into this evening, winds die down to 20 knots or less after midnight tonight.

The light winds remain over the lake late tonight into Monday as high pressure ridging gives way to zonal flow. However, as two phasing lows, one a Clipper and the other lifting from Colorado, phase with one another Monday into Tuesday, expect winds to begin picking up from the east Monday afternoon; as of right now, easterly winds of 20 to 30 knots are expected across the lake Monday night. As the cold front of the phasing lows pushes through on Tuesday, we may see a few hours where gale force gusts up to 35 knots are realized as winds back towards the north. However, the chance of gales happening currently sits at around 30%. With the return of strong cold air advection over the lake Tuesday into Wednesday, expect freezing spray (potentially heavy) to return across the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday. With high pressure quickly building back into the region behind the cold front, expect the winds to drop back down to 20 knots or less again by Wednesday afternoon.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.