textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow and blowing snow will result in reduced visibility and locally difficult traveling conditions through this evening in the Keweenaw and the eastern UP, especially east of Munising and along and north of M-28. Lake effect then tapers off overnight.

- A weak clipper system will bring another round of light snow to much of the area on Thursday, but expected snowfall amounts will only be around an inch or less in most locations.

- After a mild day on Friday, a strong cold front on Friday night will bring much colder air back into the area along with a period of strong winds, particularly over the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior, where there is a 50-80% probability of wind gusts exceeding 45 miles per hour. Areas of blowing snow may restrict visibility in open areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Radar and GOES Day Cloud Phase imagery show lake effect snow ongoing in the favored northwest wind snow belts this afternoon in the wake of low pressure departing into Quebec, with the dominant bands set up over the eastern UP from eastern Alger into Luce County. Will leave the Winter Weather Advisories in effect through 7 PM EST this evening in the east and the Keweenaw with another inch or two of accumulation possible and winds gusting to 25-35 mph contributing to localized blowing snow concerns. Lake effect will taper off and winds will diminish overnight as weak surface high pressure transits the region, with lows falling to around zero in the interior and staying around 10F closer to Lake Superior tonight. A weak wave will approach Upper Michigan from the northwest on Thursday, with an associated jet max and preceding isentropic lift providing enough forcing for ascent to generate some light snowfall across most of the area. However, only expect around an inch or less of accumulation in most locations as moisture will be somewhat lacking.

A much stronger low will pass well north of the UP across Ontario on Friday. Although we do not expect to see any precipitation from this system, the UP will get into the warm sector which will send temperatures into the 40s with breezy southwest winds for many locations on Friday afternoon. However, the warm spell will be very short lived as a strong trailing cold front moves through the UP Friday night and sends temperatures plummeting back down into the single digits by Saturday morning. This will be accompanied by a period of potentially very strong winds shifting out of the northwest Friday evening into Friday night, with the latest EFI continuing to max out around 0.8 with a shift of tales along the northern tier of the UP. Latest NBM probs for 45 mph winds have spiked to 80% along the Keweenaw and are around 50% for the areas adjacent to Lake Superior in the central and eastern UP. There is also a 15-25% chance for winds gusting as high as 60 mph over the Keweenaw. Strong winds will also lead to the possibility for blowing snow and localized visibility reductions, although this potential may be tempered somewhat by the expected lack of precipitation as any blowing will be dependent upon the existing snowpack. Will continue to closely monitor this system for the need for any eventual wind or winter weather headlines Friday evening.

Cold and mostly dry weather is then expected through the weekend as a frigid air mass and strong surface high pressure will settle in behind the front, with 500 mb temps dropping as low as -40C with 850 mb temps around -25C over Lake Superior by Saturday night. This will correspond to high temperatures in the low to mid teens and overnight lows dipping near or below zero across much of Upper Michigan this weekend. Not expecting to quite reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria at this time as relatively calm winds will tend to limit wind chill concerns. Still, will be worth monitoring the potential for very cold weather across the UP this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Northwest flow across Lake Superior and daytime heating/mixing is currently creating MVFR cigs at IWD/SAW, however, stronger LES bands still plague CMX with IFR/LIFR vis and winds near 25 kts. Tonight, expecting a gradual downtrend in LES intensity at CMX, improving conditions to MVFR by midnight. After a period of MVFR/VFR at all sites overnight, a low amplitude shortwave forces widespread light snow at all terminals Thursday morning. Although winds are expected to be light, generally 15 kts or less, periods of IFR cigs/vis are likely from west to east after ~12z.

MARINE

Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Lingering Small Craft Advisories and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings will come to an end tonight as northwest winds diminish and waves subside over Lake Superior in the wake of a departing low pressure system. Weak surface high pressure will yield lighter southwesterly breezes around 15 kt over most of the lake on Thursday, though some of the open waters over the east half of the lake could see gusts to 25 kt through Thursday evening. Southwest winds increase to 25-30 kt again on Friday in advance of a strong low crossing north of the lake across Ontario, bringing likely gales and possible storms to the entire lake by later Friday into Friday night as winds shift northwest behind a strong trailing cold front. Have hoisted a Gale Watch for the western third of the lake from Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. Held off on headlines for the rest of the lake for the afternoon package, but will likely need either a Gale Watch or a Storm Watch for the central and eastern thirds of the lake in the next forecast cycle, with the NBM probability for storm force winds of 50 kt or greater sitting at about 50% from Friday night into Saturday morning. Another round of heavy freezing spray headlines will also be needed eventually as the event draws closer. Winds diminish and waves subside later Saturday into Sunday as strong surface high pressure moves over the lake this weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ001- 003-006-007-085.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ243>248-264-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ265-266.

Lake Michigan... None.