textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers continue through tonight, mainly across the eastern UP. 1-3" of additional snow accumulation is expected near Grand Marais between this afternoon and Thursday morning.

- Well above normal temperatures settle over the region late this week and coming weekend, with highs above freezing each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Light lake effect snow continues over the northwest wind snow belts this afternoon as delta-Ts around 13C over the lake slowly lower throughout the next 36 hours as high pressure ridging coming in from the west progressively diminishes and eventually ends the lake effect from west to east this afternoon through Thursday morning. While thinking nothing more than flurries/light snow showers amounting to no more than a trace/dusting will be seen over the western half of the U.P. this afternoon, we could still see 1-3 inches of fluffy snowfall over the east the rest of this afternoon through Thursday morning, with some isolated spots potentially getting up to 4 inches near the Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore. While the current satellite imagery shows most of the U.P. cloud covered this afternoon, as the lake effect ceases the rest of this afternoon through Thursday morning, expect the skies to slowly clear out from west to east over the next 36 hours. That being said, we may still see some spots where cloud cover stays around at the lowest levels, with a non-zero chance for freezing drizzle and patchy fog developing over the interior areas and Keweenaw tonight into Thursday morning. However, confidence in the freezing drizzle and patchy fog developing is somewhat low (30-40% chance), with coverage being very spotty as well (potentially 20 to 30% of the land area of the U.P.). Therefore, I did not include freezing drizzle chances in the current forecast grids, although I did include the patches of fog as calming winds and clearing skies will increase patchy fog chances throughout the overnight hours; expect any ice accumulations to be no more than a trace at most. With warmer air progressively moving into the region over the next week (and potentially beyond), expect highs on Thursday to get into the upper 20s over the east to mid 30s over the west; expect the lows tonight to range from the upper teens in the east to single positive digits/near zero over the interior west (we can thank the clearing skies for the radiational cooling over the interior west tonight).

Generally quieter and warmer weather is in store for us the rest of the week into next week as the general warming trend will allow highs to get above the freezing mark across the region each day as lows drop into generally the 20s. Given the warmer temperatures, no lake effect precipitation is expected for most of the remainder of the forecast period. However, a cold front moving through northern Ontario on Friday could skirt the area and bring a small, quick burst of lake effect snow showers to the eastern U.P.. That being said though, with chances remaining at and below 15% at this point in time, decided to leave mentions of the snowfall out of the current forecast grids for now. As we stay within the baroclinic zone next week, we could see shortwaves and potentially a strong low pressure system or two move through the region. However, predictability on the track on any of these systems remains very low (20% or less) at this point in time. If we do see any precipitation, especially by the middle of next week, we could see a wintry mix of snow, rain, sleet, and/or freezing rain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Lake effect snow showers begin to diminish at all sites this afternoon with MVFR cigs scattering out this afternoon at IWD and by Thursday morning at CMX/SAW. Northwest winds tapper off into this evening, becoming variable overnight into Thursday with high pressure moving overhead. Could see some MVFR vis restrictions early Thursday morning at CMX with ample low level moisture and light winds, however probabilities were too low to include a category change with this issuance.

MARINE

Issued at 127 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots over the eastern lake this afternoon fall to 20 knots or less tonight as high pressure ridging moves into the region from the west. With the winds dying down, expect freezing spray to cease over the eastern lake by this evening as well. Light winds of 20 knots or less look to continue across Lake Superior until a cold front moving through northern Ontario Thursday night through Friday brings west to northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots back over the eastern half of the lake late Thursday night through Friday. As more high pressure ridging builds in behind this, expect the winds to die down to 20 knots or less again by Friday night, with the light winds remaining over Lake Superior the rest of this weekend and early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.