textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate snowfall rates and some freezing drizzle possible through this morning. Heaviest snowfall rates expected over the Keweenaw through the rest of the morning hours.

- Drier weather is expected by this afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing for much of the U.P.

- Another low pressure system could bring hazardous winter weather to the U.P. again tonight through Friday in the form of heavy wet snow, freezing rain, rain, and sleet.

- More normal winter-time temperatures and lake enhanced snow showers return this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

As the low continues to weaken over the Upper Midwest and slides into and rotates around the Ironwood area today, expect at least one more band of light to moderate snowfall to move through the U.P. early this morning with some freezing drizzle being seen throughout the region from time to time until the post-dawn hours. Overall, expecting around an inch more of snowfall across the area this morning and just a glaze of ice in spots before we dry out across most of the area. The only exception is the Keweenaw, where some upslope easterly flow may bring moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall rates to the area early this morning. While snowfall rates do look to deteriorate over the Keweenaw later this morning, the latest HREF run does show moderate snowfall rates continuing until potentially the early afternoon hours. Therefore, I've issued a short Winter Weather Advisory for the Keweenaw after the Winter Storm Warning expires this morning; the Advisory goes through the rest of the morning hours until 1 PM EST. As the low continues to fizzle out to around 1006mb over the western U.P. by this evening, expect the drier conditions to allow for some sunshine to peak through, allowing high temperatures to get into the 30s across the area to lower 40s in the south central. Most of the area should get above freezing today as we have some warm air advection moving in from our south; the only exception may be the Keweenaw, where temperatures may stay around freezing.

Our attention then turns to a Colorado low moving through the Central Plains this morning. This low is projected to continue deepening before arriving over the western Great Lakes at around 987mb Friday morning. As this occurs, expect wintry mixed precipitation, mainly light rain/freezing rain and freezing drizzle/drizzle to begin moving into the eastern half and/or central U.P. around midnight EST. As the low continues to approach and forcing increases in the TROWAL of the low, dynamic cooling begins to impact the atmospheric profile over the central U.P., potentially allowing for the transition over to wet snowfall. In addition, with colder air aloft over the west, expect light to moderate snowfall to begin moving into the western U.P. after midnight EST. As we continue through the late overnight to Friday morning hours, expect dynamic cooling to continue progressively changing the wintry precipitation types over to wet snowfall from west to east with time.

Overall, this is a very tricky forecast as wintry precipitation types could vary significantly given a change in a degree or two aloft or at the sfc. I went with a cooler temperature forecast than the NBM during the day Friday as cloudy skies and ongoing precipitation will make it difficult to get much above freezing. That being said, I do think temperatures in the south central and east will get into the 33-35 degree range during the daytime on Friday (as well as potentially during the overnight period tonight as well). Therefore, I'm thinking that we may see mainly more rainfall or non-accumulating snowfall over the south central, whereas more freezing rain and accumulating snowfall could be seen over the north central and east closer to Lake Superior. However, should the warm air advection ahead of this low push slightly further north than expected, conditions over the east may be warmer and we may just see mostly all rain and non-accumulating snow over there until the Friday evening timeframe. Looking at the latest RRFS, HREF, REFS, and NBM guidance, felt confident enough to at least issue a Winter Storm Watch for Marquette, Alger, northern Schoolcraft, and Luce counties from 3z tonight to 00z Saturday given the potential for heavy mixed precipitation and the impacts that it could cause. Should more heavy, wet snowfall be seen (highest chances over Marquette County), expect quickly accumulating snowfall and poor visibilities on the roadways. In the east where the chance for ice is higher, there could be slick roads and a stray power outage or two; thankfully, with the winds looking to not be as strong as they were yesterday, not as many power outages should be seen if the worst case scenarios for ice occur (up to 3 tenths of an inch). In addition, there may be a few inches of wet snowfall on top of the ice, which could in turn weigh down tree limbs and power lines as well as mask the ice on untreated roadways. Continue to keep an eye on the forecast as we could see some Winter Storm Warnings issued in the future. Meanwhile, most of the rest of the U.P. (i.e. the west) looks to see Winter Weather Advisory snowfall amounts (3 to 6 inches of wet-ish snow).

Behind the Colorado low on Friday, expect more 'normal' winter weather to return to the area; i.e. highs in the 20s (and potentially even teens on Monday) and lake enhanced snowfall being seen across the area as multiple Clipper shortwaves move through the region. Overall, thinking the lake enhanced to lake effect snowfall this weekend through early next week will be pretty light, although some Advisory-level snowfall cannot be completely ruled out at this time either. We could see warmer temperatures return by the middle of next week depending on the track of the Clipper; however, should the more southerly solutions such as the GFS and Canadian suites come to pass, temperatures will probably be cooler than what's currently in the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 651 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Continuing to see IFR/LIFR conditions across much of the area this morning with scattered snow showers as a weakening surface low tracks over the western UP. Expect some gradual improvement towards MVFR through this afternoon as showers taper off. The next system moves in from the south 06-12z tonight, bringing moderate to heavy snow and dropping flight conditions back into the IFR/LIFR range near the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 250 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Easterly gales of 35 to 40 knots progressively weaken to below gale by this afternoon as the low responsible weakens near the Ironwood area today. Expect the southeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots over the eastern half of the lake (highest near the international border) to progressively back to the east tonight, potentially picking up to east-northeast gales up to 35 knots on Friday (30% chance). As the Colorado low responsible for the backing winds leaves into Ontario late Friday, expect the winds to slowly slacken with time, eventually becoming 20 knots or less on Saturday. As a Clipper low rotates into the region this weekend, expect the winds to pick back up again to 20 to 30 knots from the north late Sunday through Sunday night; there is a 20% chance that winds could reach up to gales of 34 knots. While winds look to return to 20 knots or less again late on Monday, additional Clipper shortwaves could increase winds over the lake through the rest of next week.

Freezing spray is possible over the lake today and again late this weekend behind the first Clipper shortwave as Arctic air and stronger winds return to the region.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ001- 003.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ001-003.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ002-004>007-009>014-084-085.

Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Friday evening for MIZ005>007-085.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for LSZ162- 242-245>248-263-265.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ243-244- 249>251-264-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.