textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light rain showers return tonight, continuing into Sunday.

- A period of cooler weather with highs in the 40s to low 50s is expected Monday and Tuesday, followed by a warm-up midweek next week.

- A period of more active weather begins Tuesday, with almost daily chances for rain into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Afternoon water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-upper level lows spinning over the Canadian Prairie and over Arizona, with the ridge axis directed right over the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure is moving into northern Ontario, with a cold front extending southward through MN, and a surface high sprawled out over the Northeast. This is leading to southerly flow into the UP, where temperatures are climbing into the low to mid 70s (west) and the low to mid 60s (east). Otherwise, southerly winds are turning gusty courtesy of the tight pressure gradient over the area; gusts to 20- 30mph are becoming common, but wouldn't be shocked by some higher gusts in excess of 30 mph across the north-central UP and in the downsloping areas near Lake Superior.

Scattered rain showers ahead of the aforementioned cold front are already reaching the MN Arrowhead, and finally reach the western UP closer to 00Z as the cold front works eastward. Showers continue to spread west-to-east across the UP tonight into early Sunday as the front moves through, becoming more isolated in the eastern UP Sunday morning as drier air moves in behind the front. Rain totals of 0.1in or less are expected area-wide. Westerly winds behind the cold front bring cooler, near-normal temps peaking in the 50s to low 60s Sunday, coldest northwest and warmest in the south-central UP. Some breaks in the clouds in the afternoon hours as well as much drier Tds in the 20s in the west support RH falling into the mid 20 to mid 30s interior west. Higher minimum RH in the upper 30s to mid 60s is expected in the Keweenaw and east. Thankfully, winds gusts remain under 15 mph where RH is lowest with less than a 15% chance of gusts above 20 mph with RH below 30% anywhere in the UP, limiting fire weather concerns.

Ridging begins to recover Monday into Tuesday, though an embedded shortwave lifts north over the Dakotas Monday night through Tuesday, supporting a weak low to the west which may graze the western UP with some rain showers Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. This quickly is followed up by a more vigorous shortwave moving over the same area, sending another sfc low to the west of the CWA, keeping shower chances in the forecast through Wednesday night. Discrepancies remain on exact track, but best rain chances (40-70%) are over the west during both events. Guidance quickly begins to struggle after Thursday, but a more active period is anticipated to continue into early November captured by the CPC's 6-10 precipitation outlook of slightly above normal precip.

Otherwise, temps return near normal in the wake of the cold front on Sunday peaking in the 40s to low 50s Monday and Tuesday. Lows Sunday night and monday night are expected in the upper 20s to low 40s. Southerly flow returning for Wednesday and Thursday warms temps into the 50s to low 60s with lows in the mid 30s and mid 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions have returned to all TAF sites for now with strong winds being the main impact this afternoon. Strong southerly winds will continue to gust to 20-25 kts through this evening. Then, a cold front will initiate scattered showers tonight. At that point, expect cigs to deteriorate to MVFR levels with brief periods of IFR highlighted in PROB30 groups. Meanwhile, winds will veer to the W/WNW with frontal passage.

MARINE

Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Lake Superior: Southerly winds continue to gust to around 25-30kt over the eastern half of the lake, though a few gale-force gusts remain possible through the early evening. Winds are coming in lighter across the western arm of Superior, with gusts mainly to 15- 20kts. Significant wave heights of 3-6 ft are expected this afternoon into tonight, highest over the northern waters east of the Keweenaw. Winds become westerly 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts tonight behind the cold front, and some stronger gusts to near 25kts become possible along the Keweenaw by Sunday afternoon. Winds veer north Sunday night between 15-25 kts before becoming light on Monday with passing high pressure. Winds remain below 20 kts across most of the lake Tuesday with the exception of the Duluth harbor where northeast gusts around 20-25 kts are likely as high pressure departs and a low lifts to the west. Another low quickly follows it over a similar track Tuesday night into Wednesday, resulting in a period of southerly winds 15-30 kts, strongest over the east. West winds behind an associated cold front bring the next potential for gales (20-30% chance) Thursday.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 kts persist into the evening, falling back below 20kts by early Sunday morning. Wave heights build to 2-3 ft in the Bay and 3-5 ft in the northern lake by this evening. As winds fall back later tonight while shifting to the west, wave heights fall below a foot in the bay and to around 2 ft over northern Lake Michigan. Light winds mainly 15kts or less persist into early next week, turning northerly Monday and then southeast Tuesday. Winds begin to increase Tuesday night, with gusts of 20-25 kts through Wednesday, settling below 20 kts out of the west by Thursday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.