textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and/or snow is possible tonight and again Thursday night into Friday morning. Ice and snowfall amounts should be limited and at most only lead to travel impacts (such as slick roads).

- Warmer and near-to-above normal temperatures expected for the rest of the week. High temperatures generally increasing from the mid- 30s to 40s on Thursday to potentially the 50s by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

As a weak Clipper continues to exit the Upper Great Lakes this evening, the last of the snowfall associated ends in the east this afternoon. Overall, was surprised to see that we got close to an inch at the office as not much other than a trace/dusting was expected, but a burst of moderate to heavy snowfall fell at the office around 8 AM EDT this morning. That being said, impacts from this Clipper have been pretty minimal as we still recover from the blizzard earlier this week. While up to an inch potentially has fallen in most of the area, all that the fluffy snowfall is doing is acting as the proverbial 'cherry on top' to the already impressive snowfall from the blizzard. However, a lake enhanced band of moderate to heavy snowfall being seen over the eastern U.P. early this afternoon is looking to bring 2 to 3 inches of fluffy snow before all is said and done this afternoon. This band could reduce visibilities down to a quarter mile or less with snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour in the heaviest snowfall; thus, some minor travel concerns such as slick roads and having trouble seeing nearby obstacles are expected through early this afternoon. Therefore, decided to issue a Special Weather Statement for Schoolcraft and Luce counties out until 3 PM EDT this afternoon to account for the heavier lake enhanced band. Behind the weak Clipper today, expect temperatures to rise into the 30s across the area, with the far west potentially sneaking into the lower 40s as warm air advection works in from behind the Clipper. While another Clipper shortwave impulse could bring mixed precipitation to the area tonight, chances for precipitation remain low (around 30% or less) as it will very much depend on the track of the shortwave impulse, and because it is so small and weak it will be difficult to ascertain the exact track. If we do see precipitation tonight, we could see a mix of rain, freezing rain, and/or snow; accumulations would be light leading to only a trace of snow/glaze of ice, and thus only slick roads by the Thursday morning commute.

Expect near-to-above normal temperatures to dominate the rest of this week as high pressure aloft over the western half of the U.S. continues to slowly trudge eastward with time. While this will potentially set us up for multiple shortwaves the rest of this week into this weekend, warm air from the Desert Southwest and Gulf will be able to reach northwards into our area for the last half of the week. Thus, expect high temperatures to gradually increase each day this week, with highs in the 30s to 40s on Thursday potentially reaching into the 50s by Saturday. With dewpoints also looking to increase above freezing late this week, we could see snow melt increase each day, leading to ice forming along roadways during the overnight hours and an increase in river levels across the area. However, with temperatures looking to drop below freezing still each night, the snow melt should generally be limited enough to prevent flooding concerns for now. That being said, we may still see some limited inundation and ponding at poor drainage spots (thinking this would be a practical worst-case scenario).

Outside of the Clipper shortwave impulse that could potentially impact the area tonight, we may see another weakening Clipper low roll through the area Thursday night through Friday. With this shortwave low, we may see rain, freezing rain, and snow as well. However, with temperatures looking to be warmer, the chances for rainfall are higher in comparison to the impulse that could move through the area tonight. Behind this, a cold front looks to move through the U.P. sometime this weekend. While confidence is still quite low due to model spread, chances are increasing for seeing at least some kind of precipitation (mainly light snowfall). However, there is still a non-zero chance that we could see an impactful quick-hitting winter weather event this weekend if the synoptic forcing and dynamics play out right; the GFS still shows high QPF amounts with the frontal passage, with the NBM still showing up to a 20% chance for greater than 6 inches in 24 hours. Thus we will continue to keep an eye on this weekend as it could impact recovery efforts and travel.

Behind the cold front this weekend expect cooler than normal temperatures to return; the deterministic NBM currently has highs in the upper 20s to 30s for Sunday and Monday before returning to around normal by next Tuesday. While high pressure ridging behind the cold front is looking to bring quiet weather across the area through next Monday, additional Clipper lows could impact the U.P. as we head into middle of next week as high pressure ridging in the upper levels begins to once again strengthen over the western U.S.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The UP remains blanketed beneath low clouds this afternoon, leading to MVFR ceilings mainly at IWD and CMX while SAW continues to come in at low-end VFR. A brief improvement to VFR is expected at IWD and CMX late this evening. Occasional wind gusts to 20 kt at all sites will shift from the south to the southwest and west before becoming light and variable late. Overnight tonight, another weak disturbance brings around 30 percent chances of a light mix of RA and SN to IWD tonight, and snow at SAW and CMX. This also comes with another period of mainly MVFR restrictions before an improvement to low-end VFR Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 123 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Winds dwindle to 20 knots or less and freezing spray ends by this evening as a weak Clipper low continues leaving the Upper Great Lakes. With potentially only a weak shortwave impulse moving through the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours, the light winds are expected to continue until a weakening Clipper low approaches Lake Superior Thursday night. As it does so, expect winds to increase from the south to 20 to 25 knots over the eastern lake Thursday night. Once the low crosses over the lake Friday morning, expect the winds to become 20 knots or less again behind it. Don't expect the light winds to last all that long as a cold front dropping down from Canada this weekend starts to increase winds from the west, with wind speeds of 20 to 25 knots predicted for Friday night into Saturday morning (highest over the eastern half of the lake). As the cold front goes through Saturday and Saturday night, expect the winds to veer to the north/northeast to 20 to 30 knots; as of right now, the NBM has over a 25% chance for gales up to 34 knots over the eastern lake Saturday night into Sunday morning. With the return of the stronger winds, freezing spray also returns Saturday night and continues through Sunday across most of the lake on the U.S. side. As high pressure ridging increases behind the cold front early next week, expect the winds to progressively weaken with time, eventually becoming 20 knots or less again Sunday night. However, if a Clipper low approaches the Upper Great Lakes around next Tuesday (as some guidance suggests), we may see winds increase again from the south ahead of it Monday and Monday night.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.