textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather is expected through Wednesday with highs near normal in the 30s/40s and lows in the teens/20s.

- Next period of widespread precipitation is expected Thursday, mainly in the form of light rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies across the UP save for some lingering lake effect cu across the east. Tonight, mostly clear skies should enable another round of strong radiational cooling. Similar to last night, temps across the interior west should bottom out to the low teens should skies remain clear while elsewhere cools to the upper teens and low 20s. While dry weather remains tomorrow, clouds will be on the increase ahead of a weak wave set to skirt through Ontario on Thursday. PoPs return to Upper Michigan early Thursday as weak isentropic ascent / warm air advection force light rain across the area. Previous forecast had mentioned the potential for light freezing drizzle early Thursday as mid level warm air advection ramps up, though soundings haven't trended any better for this forecast cycle, showing a 2-3kft above freezing layer with sfc temps near or just above freezing and various model suites depicting meager cloud layer moisture. Rainfall pressing west to east across the UP early Thursday is expected to remain on the lighter side, generally below a tenth of an inch by the time precip wraps up (>70% chance across the northern tier of the UP).

As the weak wave moves into Ontario late into Friday, cooler temps aloft filter across Lake Superior, allowing the generation of lake effect clouds and light lake effect flurries across the WNW wind snowbelts, mainly the eastern UP. Model soundings show rather unimpressive parameters for LES development with dry air within the DGZ and below the cloud layer, as well as lake eq heights only 5-6k ft. High pressure building into the region Friday afternoon into Saturday.

A more zonal pattern aloft sets up through the end of the weekend into the early week, supporting the passage of weak shortwaves and low impact weather. Model guidance begins to disagree looking into the midweek period, though increased troughing may provide targets of opportunity for more impactful weather by then.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR prevails during the 18Z TAF period as high pressure holds. Near calm winds through tonight increase out of the southwest on Wednesday to 5-8 kts by the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 323 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Light winds and calm seas persist across Lake Superior tonight through tomorrow morning as high pressure settles overhead. South to southwest winds begin to pick up to 15-25 kts tomorrow evening as a weak low pressure moves through northern Ontario. Winds veer W to NW late into early Friday becoming 20-30 kts lake wide, especially the central and eastern lake. WNW gusts to 30 kts continue through Friday morning with waves in the eastern lake building 4-8 ft, highest near the eastern UP shoreline. Building sfc high pressure across the Upper Great Lakes will work to bring down winds below 25 kts by Friday evening, eventually becoming light into the overnight hours. Periods of breezy winds 15-20 kts are expected late weekend into the early portions of next week with very low probabilities of Gales.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.