textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A batch of light rain spreads into the UP this afternoon, diminishing from west to east overnight through Thursday morning. Total precipitation amounts range from 0 to 0.25", greatest south.

- Almost daily chances of showers and storms persist into next week. Severe storms are not expected.

- Temperatures remain below normal this week into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Afternoon GOES satellite water vapor imagery reveals the nose of a very strong upper level jet streak nosing into Mid-Mississippi Valley. A ~992 mb surface low is being reflected in southern Minnesota underneath the jet streaks left exit region. Modest isentropic lift is spreading northward into northern WI and the UP stateline as this sfc low slowly meanders east. Closer to home, low level dry air has limited more meaningful precipitation past the stateline this afternoon, as is noted by the stubborn eastward progression of KMQT radar returns. Through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight, thinking radar returns will slowly fill in across the southwestern half of the UP and eastward, however, confidence remains low that the northern tier of the UP, mainly the Keweenaw through Marquette County, will see much rain if any at all. Latest CAM ensembles suggest a lame 0-50% for rainfall >0.1" in the aforementioned locations by tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, a 50-100% chance exists with the greatest probability focus across the stateline eastward to the Soo.

Once rain kicks east of the UP tomorrow morning, a brief period of local ridging aloft should keep things quiet through Thursday. Cant rule out a few spotty showers developing along the stateline and interior south-central during the PM hours, though confidence is low at this time (<30% chance). Daily rain chances and below normal temperatures persist through the weekend as weak shortwaves rotate through the Upper Great Lakes, though no notable QPF signals exist until early next week. The seemingly endless period of troughing begins to break down early next week into the midweek period, allowing more zonal flow aloft and the passage of additional shortwaves from the northern Rockies to emanate into the region. Chances for more widespread meaningful rainfall (25-50% of >0.25") returns in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions at IWD and SAW look to deteriorate down to at least MVFR in the next few hours as -SHRA associated with a low pressure south of the area moves in. While we could see some IFR conditions at IWD and SAW (best chances at SAW at around 30%), CMX looks to remain VFR through the entire period this afternoon into Thursday afternoon. Some patchy and light BR could be seen behind the -SHRA this evening at IWD and SAW; while BR doesn't look to last all that long over IWD this evening, we may see it remain over SAW until Thursday morning as wrap-around moisture from the low continues to cycle over the terminal. VFR conditions return to all of the terminals by Thursday morning as another shortwave impulse attempts to push into the region from the northwest and cigs rise; winds also increase from the W and NW Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

As a weak low pressure skirts south of the UP tonight, modest pressure rises and weak cold air advection will help increase WNW winds between 20-30 kts across the central and eastern lake Thursday morning. Winds fall between 20-25 kts or less Thursday night before falling below 20 kts lakewide Friday PM. A period of calmer winds <15 kts is expected through the rest of the weekend and into the coming week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.