textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures come in near seasonal (mid 50s to mid 60s) through the weekend.

- A widespread freeze is expected across the area tonight into Saturday morning. Most areas inland from the Great Lakes will be below freezing (the exception Keweenaw County). The interior west could reach into the lower 20s. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most of the Upper Peninsula.

- A Clipper low passing through the region this weekend brings additional light rain chances late Saturday into early Sunday. Winds behind the cold front will be gusty, with a 20-60% chance of reaching gale conditions over mainly eastern Lake Superior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Afternoon RAP analysis and water vapor imagery feature midlevel shortwave troughing over eastern Ontario and the Pacific Northwest (set to impact our area over the weekend), and ridging over the Northern Plains. At the surface, sprawling high pressure is centered over southwestern MN, keeping the UP under cool, breezy NW flow. Visible satellite shows plenty of lake effect clouds over the NW wind belts, and some sprinkles and rain showers continue to be reported at times in the far eastern UP. However, model soundings show lowering inversion heights over the next few hours as CAA weakens, with an increasingly dry airmass overhead. This should allow lake clouds to continue to erode. Otherwise, temperatures this afternoon are climbing into the mid 50s, and are not expected to warm all that much more before sunset.

With the skies being clear and the antecedent air being quite cool, expect temperatures in the areas away from the Great Lakes to drop below freezing tonight, with the typical cold spots in the interior west potentially dropping down to as low as the lower 20s late tonight/early Saturday morning. Therefore, a Freeze Warning remains in effect for western and central Upper MI from 10 PM EDT tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday. In addition, given that the ridging will create nearly calm winds at the sfc, widespread frost is expected across the U.P. save the areas north of Houghton.

Otherwise, expect cooler and more seasonable temperatures this weekend into early next week as the aforementioned PacNW troughing allows for the development of a Clipper low that moves over the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. This means that high temperatures are projected to range from the mid-50s to mid-60s across the U.P. through Monday, while lows drop into the 20s and 30s in the interior areas through Monday night (save for Saturday night when clouds and rainfall from the Clipper moving through limit lows to the 40s).

Speaking of the Clipper, while cloud cover from it looks to move into the west as early as early Saturday morning, dry air in the lower levels looks to prevent anything from reaching the ground until at least the late afternoon. However, as the center of the Clipper 'clips' (*buh dum tiss*) northern Lake Superior Saturday night, CAMs and medium range guidance bring better chances for light rainfall across the area Saturday night. While nearly all guidance suggests the highest rainfall amounts north of the U.P. Saturday night into Sunday morning, the latest REFS run has a general 50 to 100% chance of at least a tenth of an inch of rain falling over the area Saturday night, with the exception being a less than 50% chance south of US-2 in Menominee County. While some lake effect sprinkles could be seen behind the Clipper during the day Sunday over the northwest wind belts, incoming ridging will put an end to it Sunday evening. In addition to the rain chances, height falls up to 4 mb/3 hrs and height rises up to 3 mb/3 hrs ahead of and behind the Clipper, respectively, indicate breezy southerly winds preceding the Clipper's arrival on Saturday followed by gusty northwest winds behind it on Sunday; some northwesterly wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible over the Keweenaw and along the Lake Superior shoreline from Marquette County eastward. While the latest NBM shows a 50 to 70% chance for northwest wind gusts over 40 mph for these areas on Sunday, the NBM typically runs hot in these scenarios. Wind gusts have thus been knocked back slightly.

Moving into next week, expect shortwave ridging to keep the area dry on Monday while another Clipper brings troughing back to the area next Tuesday. However, expect the Clipper's passing to be dry, which could increase fire weather concerns ahead of and behind the Clipper's passage next week. Moving towards the end of next week, medium range guidance slightly differs on the strength of the jet stream progging along the U.S./Canada border. Should the jet stream be stronger, we could see some light rain chances return as well as more 'normal Fall-like' temperatures continuing; if not, then we could see a warm-up again to high temperatures returning to the 60s across most of the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Lake effect clouds are present this morning as cold NW flow streams across Lake Superior. This continues to lead to intermittent MVFR restrictions at IWD, while CMX remains more firmly under an MVFR deck. Expect conditions to improve to VFR for all terminals over the next couple of hours. NW winds continue to gust to around 15-20kts at CMX and SAW through the rest of the afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight, then winds pick up out of the south by late Saturday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Lake Superior: NW winds continue to gust to 20-30kts over the next few hours in the eastern half of the lake, then winds fall back below 20kts over the entire lake tonight. However, as a Clipper low approaches Lake Superior on Saturday, expect the winds to build from the south, potentially gusting to 20 to 30 kts over the lake Saturday evening as the low skirts along the northern shoreline. Behind the Clipper's passing late Saturday night into Sunday, expect the winds to veer to the west and eventually northwest, with gales up to 35 kts being possible over mainly the east half on Sunday (20 to 60% chance per medium-range guidance, with the highest chances along the southern shoreline near Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore). However, as this guidance tends to run high, will hold off on any headlines for now. As additional shortwave ridging returns to the area early next week, expect the winds to slacken back down to 20 kts or less by Monday. Another Clipper low potentially moving by the area on Tuesday could bring southerly winds of 20 to 30 kts back across the lake ahead of it.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Northwest wind gusts of 15-20kts persist the rest of the afternoon, then fall back below 10kts this evening. However, as a Clipper approaches the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday, expect the winds to pick up from the south throughout the day, eventually getting up to 20 to 25 kts by the evening hours as the low skirts along the northern Lake Superior shoreline. While we can expect the winds to briefly fall closer to 20 kts as they veer with time Sunday morning, expect the winds to pick up once again from the northwest to 20 to 25 kts Sunday afternoon behind the Clipper. With high pressure ridging returning for early next week though, expect light winds of 15 kts or less to return to northwest Lake MI and northern Green Bay by Monday. However, don't expect the light winds to last all that long as another Clipper system moving by the region could bring south/southwesterly winds of 20 to 30 kts back to the area on Tuesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Freeze Warning from 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday for MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.