textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers ramp up across the north, then northwest wind snow belts behind an exiting winter storm, persisting through Thursday. Snow totals today through Thursday peak at around 2-4" over the N and NW wind snow belts of the north-central and eastern UP.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect for much of Lake Superior through this evening.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the forecast period. Low temperatures in the single digits and even below zero are possible late this week into this upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Early this morning, our deep Clipper low is centered over southeast WI and southern Lake Michigan, with a tight baroclinic zone draped over central WI. IR imagery and radar returns indicate a swath of snow along and just north of this zone, with a sharp cutoff to the south given the drier midlevel air curling in. We, however, remain north of pretty much all of this "system" snow, with just Menominee county being impacted by light snowfall. Some light radar returns over Superior are beginning to migrate into the north-central UP with winds turning to the NE as the low continues to track eastward into the Lower Peninsula this morning. Snow accumulations before sunrise should be rather light, generally an inch or less in both our developing lake effect and the lingering light snow over Menominee county. However, with some upsloping, the north-central UP may see some higher totals up to 1-2 inches.

As winds continue to back to the N and NW today, expect lake effect snow to shift accordingly to those associated snow belts and persist through Thursday. With dry midlevel air working in, our highest accumulations will be over the north-central and then eastern UP courtesy of the longer fetch over Superior. That said, significant, problematic, headline-worthy snow totals are not expected. Totals today through Thursday will be highest across the higher terrain of the north-central UP (with upslope enhancement today), and across Alger, northern Schoolcraft, and northern Luce counties. In these areas, expect a general 2-4 inches. Elsewhere, LES should only drop as much as 1-2in of snow through Thursday.

Otherwise, expect winds to turn rather gusty today; N to NW wind gusts of 20-25mph will be common by mid-morning, and stronger gusts of 30mph or even higher will be possible across the Keweenaw and nearer to Lake Superior. Winds decrease into the evening. Temperatures largely hold steady in the upper teens to lower 20s today, falling back to the lower/mid teens tonight before rebounding into the low/mid 20s Thursday.

Models continue to hint at another clipper traversing the area later on Friday, but this system does not look particularly impactful in terms of snow amounts at this time. Another shot of arctic air will move into the area this weekend in the wake of this system as 850 mb temps plummet to -20 to -25C by early Sunday. This will correspond to daytime highs in the single digits to low teens and overnight lows flirting with below zero readings for Saturday and Sunday. Another clipper may then approach the region early next week, but models continue to differ greatly with respect to strength, progression, and timing of this feature.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

North wind lake effect snow will be the rule for much of the morning and afternoon, with lower cigs mainly impacting SAW. MVFR cigs should be the dominant flight category however, as the latest radar returns show an increase in lake effect snow across the central UP, opting to include prob30 groups for LIFR drops at SAW this morning. As winds shift to the northwest this evening, light lake effect should be seen at IWD and CMX, though heavy lake effect snow bringing down cigs/vis less than MVFR are not expected. Additionally, northerly winds 20-30 kts will be common at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 328 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Strong low pressure is moving over Lake Michigan early this morning, and tracks across the Lower Peninsula today. NE winds are already picking up this morning, with gusts to around 25-30kts expected to increase to gales of 35 and possibly 40kts between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale. Gales then develop over the central and eastern portions of the lake after daybreak while winds shift northerly, then over to the northwest. Expect gales to fall off over the west and central from late morning to early afternoon, but linger over the eastern half of the lake into this evening. Winds continue to fall back below 20kts in the west half of the lake by early Thursday, but 20kt gusts are expected in the east half at least until Thursday evening. Then expect a brief period of lighter west- winds below 20 kt into early Friday before winds increase again ahead of another system. This will bring renewed gale chances during the weekend, with freezing spray concerns also increasing as a frigid air mass moves over Lake Superior.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LSZ242>244-263- 264.

Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for LSZ245-247-248- 265.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ249-250-266.

Lake Michigan... None.