textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Best shot at widespread measurable rain Thursday night into Friday. Probability of at least 1 inch is around 15-30%, highest in the south.

- Generally below normal temps continue through this weekend then warm back up to near normal for next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery shows a couple of different layers of scattered clouds over the UP early this morning with a somewhat more solid line of clouds draped northwest of Lake Superior parallel to the shoreline. This is associated with a weak surface trough (RAP analysis shows 1008mb over Duluth). Aloft, RAP analysis shows broadly NW flow with embedded impulses at various levels helping produce these clouds, but forcing for rain shower development seems weak. Nonetheless, the CAMs show a wide variety of solutions regarding the placement of showers, so kept slight-chance PoPs in the forecast. Even if showers do form, impacts will be minimal, with HREF chances of a tenth of an inch of precipitation by this afternoon only peaking at 30-40% over the Keweenaw. Expect some hazy skies today as Canadian wildfire smoke is once again forecast to be in the skies. However, most will be aloft, with the HRRR- Smoke model only showing higher concentration of near-surface smoke south of US-2 this afternoon and evening. Expect typical summer temperatures with highs around 70 and lows tonight in the 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Upper MI will be situated between two shortwaves moving E Wed night. The associated sfc low with the stronger shortwave to the N will have already departed to Quebec with no impacts to the region by this period. The S shortwave moving over WI with the help of more widespread lift from an 110kt upper level jet looks to support some -shra in the region. How far N this precip reaches into the UP will depend on track of the wave which still has some level of variability within model guidance, but impacts will be low (or none) regardless. Model soundings indicate that dry low level show very little available moisture with lackluster lift to achieve measurable -ra. If anything is able to materialize in the CWA, best chances (20% or less) are in the S. Otherwise, temps settle into the 40s to low 50s.

Weak high pressure building into the region from the N keeps dry conditions going on Thu as a more amplified shortwave tracks over the N Plains. Some lake breeze interactions are possible in the afternoon keeping cooler conditions near the Great Lakes where highs are expected in the 50s to mid 60s, interior temps will peak in the mid 60s to low 70s before temps settle overnight into the 40s.

The best shot at precip this fcst is Thu night into Fri. The shortwave over the N Plains on Thu tracks over the region through Fri night. This again is accompanied by some better dynamic support as well as strong isentropic ascent along the warm front. Model soundings within the heavy QPF are indicative of a deep warm cloud layer to at least 10kft and pwats ~1.3", but no training is anticipated with the faster corfidi vectors. Ultimately, the track of the shortwave, placement of the stronger f-gen, and strength of the sfc high pressure to the NW will impact where the heaviest corridor of precip ends up. The latest cluster analysis highlights how each model suite is generally a different solution with not great agreement for 3 days out. Regardless, this does look to bring at least some widespread measurable ra to the CWA. Current NBM probabilities of at least 1.0" are ~15-30%, highest over the S. This period will also be cold with highs only in the 50s and lows in the 40s; would not be surprised if some spots dipped into the upper 30s.

Dry weather then returns to the UP, likely for the remainder of the weekend as sfc high pressure persists and additional shortwaves hold off. Temps begin to warm, but still are expected to be cooler than normal. This weak pattern should break early next week with additional waves emanating out off the N Plains. That said, spread is too high for deterministic details, so the NBM PoPs were left as is. Temps continue to warm near normal for the start of the work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail tonight, although a band of showers is expected to move west to east across the terminals 08-12Z; chance of thunder is less than 20%. VFR conditions continue on Wednesday with wildfire smoke resulting in hazy skies. WNW winds may gust up to 20kts at CMX Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

South to southwest winds of 10-20 kts with a few gusts to 25 kts (mainly this afternoon/evening) are expected across all of Lake Superior this afternoon into tonight. On Wednesday, southwest to northwest of 10-20 kts winds are expected, with a few gusts to 25 kts possible. Winds switch to the north/northeast on Thursday, mainly under 20 kts, then shift to the east on Friday with some 20- 25 kt gusts.

Isolated showers are expected this evening into Wednesday morning, with the next chance for showers arriving on Friday.

Skies will be hazy skies at times this week as smoke from Canadian wildfires spreads across the region. A thicker area of smoke looks to arrive late today into Wednesday, with some of the smoke possibly making it to the surface.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.