textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and dry weather with highs in the mid to low 30s expected today.

- Mixed precipitation, mostly rain and snow, spreads west to east Tuesday before transitioning to lake effect snow for the northwest wind snowbelts Tuesday P.M.

- A secondary cold front will reinvigorate heavy lake effect snow and northerly wind gusts upwards of 40-50 mph early Wednesday morning. Blowing snow creating areas of very low visibility will create hazardous travel conditions before and during the Wednesday morning commute. Interested parties should continue to monitor the forecast!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 357 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Early morning GOES satellite reveals clearing skies for areas of the west and south central as light clipper snow has departed the UP. A brief period of ridging aloft today along 850 mb temps near 0C will hold quiet weather in place with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 30s. Breezy west winds 20-30 mph will be common in the Keweenaw but should slacken into the evening.

More active and impactful weather returns during the midweek period as the ridging amplifies in the western CONUS, forcing downstream height falls in the central/east and allowing several shortwaves to descend through the Great Lakes. The first wave rides the breaking down ridge axis through the Canadian Prairies southeast late tonight through Tuesday morning, driving a sfc low pressure just north of Lake Superior by Tuesday afternoon. A round of isentropically forced precip spreads west to east Tuesday morning. There is still some uncertainty regarding precip type during this timeframe as model soundings mainly show a mix of rain, but given the magnitude of mid to low level WAA, wouldn't be surprised to see a trace of freezing rain where surface temps remain closer to freezing. Confidence in the spatial extent of freezing rain is quite low.

As the sfc feature presses east Tuesday afternoon, cold air advection behind the initial cold front will transition precip to lake effect snow for the northwest wind snowbelts. A more notable shortwave then quickly dives south across Lake Superior overnight into Wednesday morning. A sharp drop in 850 mb temps (as low as -20C by 12z) will reinvigorate lake effect snow across the north wind snowbelts. Ample lake induced lift through a saturated 2-4kft deep DGZ should allow 0.5-1"/hour snowfall rates to develop. Strong pressure rises on the order of 1-2 mb/hr in conjunction with a 35-45 kt LLJ quickly dropping across the lake will produce strong northerly winds upwards of 40-50 mph along the lakeshores before and during the morning commute hours Wednesday, creating blowing snow and areas of near very low visibility. Travel during this timeframe could be potentially hazardous and remains monitoring over the next couple forecast cycles!

After a brief dry period Thursday, additional clipper waves move through Friday into the weekend - though certainty on track and timing quickly deteriorates as models continue to diverge significantly by the end of the work week. What can be said is that we are looking at a period of cooler weather compared to early in the week with on and off potential for snow and trailing lake effect.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 654 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Morning satellite imagery shows clearing skies across the U.P. in the wake of a departing clipper system. This is promoting VFR conditions at area terminals, save for KCMX as westerly flow keeps lower clouds and MVFR conditions locked in along the Keweenaw through 18-21z this afternoon. Otherwise expect VFR to prevail at most other sites for the majority of the TAF period. The next system approaches from the west late in the period, bringing likely snow and IFR/MVFR conditions as winds pick back up to around 10 kt out of the south 09-12z Wed.

MARINE

Issued at 357 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

West winds 25-30 kts this morning slowly fall off below 25 kts through the afternoon. Winds begin to back to the SW tonight as a developing low pressure becomes situated north of the lake early Tuesday morning. As the low moves east through Tuesday, cold air advection will increase west to northwest winds 25-30 kts through Tuesday PM. A secondary cold front then quickly dives south across the lake late Tuesday night, sharply veering winds to the north while producing Gales 35-45 kts. At this time, there is a 20-50% chance for Storm force gusts of 50 kts early Wednesday morning before and around daybreak. At the same time, heavy lake effect snow will reduce visibility to near zero. Heavy freezing spray will be common as temps fall into the teens. Significant wave heights are expected to build between 10-15 ft across the entire central 2/3rds of the lake by Wednesday morning. High pressure building into the Upper Great Lakes will being to taper down winds through Wednesday evening. Have opted to introduce a Gale Watch for the entire lake from 03-00z Wednesday (10 pm Tues - 7pm Wed EST).

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for LSZ162-240>244-263-264.

Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.