textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers will become more widespread this morning with additional amounts up to 0.25 inches across the north.

- Lake enhanced rain transitions to lake effect and upslope driven snow over the north to northeast wind precipitation belts tonight into tomorrow.

- Light snow accumulations are becoming increasingly likely tonight through tomorrow morning with isolated amounts >1" possible (50-80% chance) in areas of high terrain in the west and central UP.

- A Gale Warning is now in effect for northerly gales of 35 to 45 knots across most of Lake Superior today. Strongest winds over the central waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 408 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Latest radar mosaic early this morning has widespread showers across much of the U.P. as a low pressure system now rotates directly over the U.P. As this parent low integrates into a descending trough from Canada through the course of the day, rain showers will become most concentrated over northern portions of the U.P. where an additional 0.25" of accumulation is possible. Following this wave will be, yet, another secondary shortwave in the upper flow that will help reinforce CAA into the region through early tomorrow. This surge of cold air will transition the lake enhanced rain to lake effect snow starting across the western portions of the U.P. late this afternoon/evening where temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s. Anticipate a rain/snow mix period through the evening hours before that transition to pure lake effect snow after Fri 06Z. Across the east, it will be tougher for that rain to snow transition, where daytime surface temperatures will run almost 10 degrees higher than the western half. Therefore, it is very possible that the eastern counties only reach a rain/snow mix by tomorrow morning, whereas the Michigamme Highlands could see their first measurable snowfall of the season in the 1-2 inch range. While thermodynamic profiles show ample low level moisture, lake inversions will have a tough time reaching the DGZ, thus preventing any big snowfall totals. Also accompanying the CAA and precipitation will be strong NNE winds later this morning with widespread 35 to 45 mph winds across the northern Keweenaw and shorelines of Lake Superior. Look for these to eventually taper off from west to east tomorrow morning.

Further out, drier weather will return for the weekend as high pressure strengthens over the area, and once again there will be a slight warmup into the 50s from Sunday through Tuesday. This will be after a brief dip in high temperatures into the upper 30s/low 40s tomorrow and widespread 40s on Saturday. Meanwhile, though, overnight lows will dip into the 20s through the extended period (and even as low as the teens across the interior west tomorrow night).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Ceilings are falling back to IFR/LIFR tonight while rain spreads across all terminals once again. This may knock visiblity down to 2SM or less, with further drops towards airport minimum indicated in some of the guidance mainly at CMX and IWD. A slow improvement to MVFR is expected at IWD and CMX during the afternoon Thursday, with IFR persisting at SAW through the evening. Meanwhile, widespread rain tonight gives way to lingering lake effect rain showers as winds turn northerly Thursday. Northerly winds become gusty (in excess of 35 kt at CMX, 20-25+ at IWD/SAW) Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 451 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Lake Superior: Gale Warnings remain in effect this morning through early tomorrow morning as strong pressure rises and strong cold air advection bring a sharp increase in winds. N to NNE winds increase to gales of 35-45 kts in the western lake between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw early this morning. These gales transition across the central and eastern lake through the morning to early afternoon hours, building significant wave heights upwards of 15 ft. Building high pressure diminishes winds and waves from west to east overnight through tomorrow morning.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Breezy southerlies between 20-25 kts will be the rule through this morning before a sharp cold front veers winds to the north, increasing gusts between 25-35 kts by the afternoon. A brief Gale Warning remains in effect for our Green Bay and N Lake Michigan zones between 18z Thursday through 03z Friday. Gales fall off overnight becoming winds 20-30 kts through early tomorrow.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ241- 242-263.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ243-244-264.

Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ245>248-265-266.

Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ249-250.

Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ221-248-250.