textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Mixed precipitation, mainly of rain and snow, spreads west to east across the the UP tonight into early Tuesday, changing over to lake effect snow in the NW wind snow belts Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Pockets of freezing rain mixing in at the onset may lead to a light glaze of ice on the roadway. This is most likely across Menominee and Delta counties (50% chance) but light icing is possible elsewhere throughout the western half of the UP early Tuesday morning.

- A secondary cold front will reinvigorate heavy lake effect snow and northerly wind gusts upwards of 40-50 mph Tuesday night to early Wednesday morning. Blowing snow creating areas of very low visibility will create hazardous travel conditions before and during the Wednesday morning commute. Interested parties should continue to monitor the forecast!

- Winter Weather Advisories are in effect in Menominee and Delta counties early Tuesday for a risk of freezing rain, and across the western and north-central UP for lake effect snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Most of the UP has enjoyed sunny skies today courtesy of weak ridging and plenty of dry midlevel air over the region, though lake clouds continue to blanket the Keweenaw and eastern UP. Where skies have turned sunny, temperatures have warmed quite nicely into the mid/upper 30s - and even higher into the lower 40s! Where clouds persist, temperatures are peaking only in the lower 30s.

Meanwhile, ridging is amplifying over the western CONUS already today, and continues to build northwards into the PAC NW by midweek. Troughing develops over the central and eastern CONUS as a result, leaving the Great Lakes vulnerable to a parade of shortwaves/clippers the rest of the week. The first such wave is already dropping through Saskatchewan this afternoon, with associated surface low pressure beginning to track into Manitoba. As this system continues to drop southeast towards the Great Lakes tonight, isentropic ascent out ahead of it will touch off our next batch of wintry precipitation, sweeping through from west to east from around 06Z onwards. Soundings support mainly a rain/snow mix, but briefly show a weak warm nose or near-freezing isothermal layer just at the onset of precipitation. With surface temperatures initially below freezing, some pockets of freezing rain thus would not be out of the question across the western and central UP early Tuesday. Per model soundings, any real accumulations would be more likely over the south-central UP, where a light glaze is possible (50% chance per FRAM). As precipitation continues to work into the eastern UP after daybreak Tuesday, mainly a rain/snow mix is expected. Snow totals should be rather light area-wide, generally below an inch, but with some ice accumulations possible, have opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Tuesday morning for Menominee and Delta counties.

As the sfc feature presses east Tuesday afternoon, cold air advection behind the initial cold front will transition precip to lake effect snow for the northwest wind snowbelts. A more notable shortwave then quickly dives south across Lake Superior overnight into Wednesday morning. A sharp drop in 850 mb temps (as low as -20C by 12z) will reinvigorate lake effect snow across the north wind snowbelts. Ample lake induced lift through a saturated 2-4kft deep DGZ should allow 0.5-1"/hour snowfall rates to develop. A general 3- 6" of snow is looking likely over the N and NW wind snow belts by early Wednesday (60-80% chance), but guidance does point to a potential for totals in excess of 6" over the higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties (around 50% chance). Strong pressure rises on the order of 1-2 mb/hr in conjunction with a 35-45 kt LLJ quickly dropping across the lake will produce strong northerly winds upwards of 40-50 mph along the lakeshores before and during the morning commute hours Wednesday, creating blowing snow and areas of near very low visibility. Travel during this timeframe could be potentially hazardous and remains monitoring over the next couple forecast cycles! Have opted to issue Winter Weather Advisories for the western and north-central UP for Tuesday night-Wednesday morning for the potential for impactful winter weather through the morning commute.

Lake effect snow tapers off late Wednesday as much drier air works in and inversion heights lower. After a brief dry period Thursday, additional clipper waves move through Friday into the weekend - the first on Friday potentially becoming rather deep as it tracks across the Great Lakes. That said, certainty on track, timing, and strength deteriorates as models continue to diverge significantly by the end of the work week. What can be said? We are looking at a return to below-average temperatures for most of the remainder of the forecast period (Friday being the exception ahead of the clipper), with rounds of chances for synoptically-forced snow followed by trailing lake effect.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

IFR conditions will prevail at CMX through late afternoon due to low clouds in westerly flow. Elsewhere though, VFR will be the main flight category at IWD and SAW into early tonight at which point the next system will approach from the west. As -SHRASN/-SN overspread the area, conditions will drop to IFR/MVFR levels early Tuesday morning. A period of LIFR will also be possible at CMX and SAW as well in the Tue 12-16Z time frame. In addition, westerly winds will begin gusting up to 25 kts around Tue 15Z.

MARINE

Issued at 356 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

West winds continue to fall back to around 15-20kts this evening, then back to the SW through the first half of the night as low pressure begins to drop into Ontario. Winds pick up to around 20- 25kts ahead of this into Tuesday morning. As the low moves over northern Lake Superior, cold air advection will increase west to northwest winds 25-30 kts through Tuesday afternoon/evening. A secondary cold front then quickly dives south across the lake late Tuesday night, sharply veering winds to the north while producing Gales 35-45 kts. At this time, there is a 20-50% chance for Storm force gusts of 50 kts across central Lake Superior Wednesday morning. Heavy freezing spray will be common as temps fall into the teens. Significant wave heights are expected to build between 10-15 ft across the entire central 2/3rds of the lake by Wednesday morning, with up to 12-18ft possible north of a line from Marquette to Pictured Rocks. High pressure building into the Upper Great Lakes will being to taper down winds through Wednesday evening. Have opted to introduce a Gale Watch for the entire lake from 03-00z Wednesday (10 pm Tues - 7pm Wed EST).

Winds briefly fall back below 20kts from west to east into Thursday, but then additional clipper waves moving through will keep winds elevated above 20kts for the remainder of the forecast period.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for MIZ001>003-009.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ004-005.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for MIZ012-013.

Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for LSZ162-240>244-263-264.

Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for LMZ221-250.