textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisories are in effect through mid-morning for Alger, northern Schoolcraft, and Luce counties for lake effect snow.

- West to northwest gales up to 40 knots continue today over the eastern half of Lake Superior along with heavy freezing spray over much of the lake.

- Windchills in the single digits and teens below zero are expected this morning.

- A fast moving storm system could bring several inches of snowfall to the U.P Sunday night into Monday morning, potentially impacting the morning commute.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Early this morning 500mb model analysis and water vapor imagery showed northwest flowing continuing over the region as an upper level low pressure remained anchored over the Hudson Bay and ridging extended up the western U.S into Canada. The shortwave that brought the uptick in lake effect was moving away taking the low and mid level moisture with it. However, strong convergence over the lake overnight resulted in a more organized band coming into the Pictured Rocks shoreline and Munising area. This band was becoming less organized over the last few hours. Gales continued over the eastern half of Lake Superior with gusty winds along the shorelines and Keweenaw. Temperatures were in the single digits and teens with windchills in the single digits and teens below zero, coldest in the interior.

Today, northwest flow aloft will continue over the region with the next shortwave to arrive on Saturday taking shape over British Colombia. The main forecast concern today will be lake effect snow showers over the eastern U.P which look like they will continue to shift from the WNW wind snowbelts to the NW wind snowbelts. Extended the Winter Weather Advisory through 16z (11 am EST) with up to 3" of additional snowfall over the east. Thereafter drier air in the low levels, slightly lower inversion heights and continued weakening convergence should limit the intensity and organization of the snow showers.

Tonight light lake effect will continue in the east with another night of lows in the single digits inland and teens near the Lake Superior shoreline. Lake effect snow accumulations will generally be less than 2".

On Saturday another shortwave moves through the area. Moisture is limited but looks like there might be enough moisture/lift for up to an inch of light fluffy snow across much of the U.P. Higher amounts could occur in the northwest wind snowbelts with the combination of light snow and lake effect snow showers. Inversion heights look relatively low (<4kft) but are closer to 5kft in the east. Wouldn't be surprised to see a period of moderate snow showers in the east Saturday afternoon. While there will be a breeze near the shorelines, widespread strong winds are not expected, thus the blowing snow potential is low. Given the dry fluffy nature of the snow not expecting widespread impacts with this system.

Attention then turns to a stronger wave that will arrive on Sunday night into Monday morning. This clipper will be stronger and accompanied by a slug of Pacific moisture. A period of moderate to heavy snow may occur as the system moves through the region. The biggest limiting factor will be the relatively quick movement which should keep amounts down. That being said the snow will be more dense in nature with several inches of accumulation possible. Currently the NBM has a 60-80% chance for >3" snowfall and 40-60% chance for >6" in the central U.P, highest in Delta County due to enhancement off Lake Michigan with southerly winds. This system will be watched closely as the timing could impact the Monday morning commute.

Thereafter the pattern will remain active but a warming trend is expected with temperatures likely getting near and/or above freezing in the afternoons mid through late week. Not seeing any significant system on the horizon at this time but there will be a chance for mixed light precipitation Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Lake effect snow showers continue to diminish, but periodic blowing snow could still reduce vsby to MVFR or IFR at CMX for the rest of the night. Cigs likely remain at MVFR through the TAF period at CMX with northwest winds gusting to around 25 kt. SAW/IWD will see cloud bases at MVFR levels for the rest of the night (30% chance for IFR at IWD), although may scatter out at times. IWD should trend to VFR for most of the daylight hours on Friday, with SAW remaining borderline MVFR/VFR.

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

West to northwest winds of 30 knots to gales of 40 knots continue across the lake this morning. In addition, heavy freezing spray is being seen across most of the lake, save for the far west. While the winds weaken through the day, expect marginal gales to continue until this evening over the east; the heavy freezing spray eventually lightens up over the lake this evening as well as winds start to decrease ahead of an approaching Clipper low tonight. While the winds drop down to around 20 knots or less as the Clipper moves through Saturday morning, expect the winds to increase a little from the northwest to 20 to 25 knots behind it Saturday afternoon and evening. Winds drop down to around 20 knots or less again by Sunday morning and remain that way through the rest of early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MIZ006-007-085.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for LSZ241.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ242>249-263>266.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ244-245-248- 249-264.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ250-251- 265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.