textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers linger in the east through Wednesday. Marginal impacts are expected after this evening.

- Two rounds of widespread light to moderate snow are expected Thursday into Friday. Strong winds arriving Friday morning as lake effect snow showers develop bring potential for hazardous conditions from blowing snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 349 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Lake effect snow coverage dwindles into tonight as 850 mb temps continue to warm in the wake of the mid level low noted on GOES water vapor imagery moving into southern Ontario. Unimpressive thermodynamic profiles leave additional accumulations on the low side this afternoon through tonight (1-2 inches in the east, >1 inch elsewhere). With potential for moderate snowfall rates lowering vis below 1 mile depleting after the evening commute, opted to leave the Winter Weather Advisory end time as is (7 PM EST) for Alger County. That said, scattered light showers continue in Alger/Luce/N Schoolcraft counties into Wednesday with mainly 1 inch or less of new snow. Temps currently in the teens to low 20s settle in to the single digits above and below 0 by Wednesday morning, coldest interior west. A shortwave early on Wednesday may result in some flurries over the west, but increasing high pressure and its lack of moisture should prevent any accumulation and likely only result in an uptick in cloud cover. That said, this may provide just enough additional lift for light lake effect snow to develop just west of the Keweenaw, assuming the area of moving ice over western Lake Superior doesn't limit latent heat release. Highs on Wednesday are expected in the upper teens to mid 20s. Wednesday night will be warmer in the single digits above to low teens.

Early Thursday morning a shortwave accompanied by WAA from southwesterly flow and isentropic ascent yield a widespread 1-3 inches of snow. Temps warm even further into the mid 20s to mid 30s. This precedes a more organized low tracking over far northern Ontario and shortwave diving southeast over the western UP/Wisconsin, sending a cold front through the area Friday morning. Strong CAA and pressure rises post fropa will result in blustery northwest winds. Widespread gusts of 20-30 mph are expected on Friday with 40+ mph by the eastern Lake Superior shores and in the Keweenaw. Latest NBM probabilities of 40+ mph gusts are between 30- 60%. The same cold airmass transitions synoptic snow back to a brief period of north wind lake effect snow into Friday night. A near surface DGZ and inversion heights only between 4-6kft will keep accumulations on the lower side (1-3 inches), but raise blowing snow concerns when combined with the strong winds. Travel impacts are becoming increasingly likely for the Friday commutes.

A brief lull in PoPs is forecast early on Saturday before another shortwave traverses the Upper Great Lakes into Sunday, but confidence on wave track and timing remains low. Temps quickly drop back below freezing for the weekend, warming again next week with highs near freezing and lows in the teens.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1226 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

IWD will remain VFR throughout this TAF period. CMX is reporting SKC conditions at 03Z, though satellite shows some low level cloud decks forming around the Keweenaw, so a TEMPO MVFR group will carry for the first few hours of this TAF, though if that deck fills in, an amendment to prevailing may become necessary, with models predicting around 60% chances of MVFR through 10Z before lifting to VFR for the rest of the TAF. SAW is still hanging onto some remnant lake effect clouds and flurries, which has MVFR conditions at 03Z. Latest hi resolution model guidance is beginning to increase the chances that low level humidity will result in fog formation this morning, but with chances of that currently around 30 percent or less, will elect not to go with a TEMPO or prevailing FG at this time, though it cannot be ruled out entirely. SAW eventually SCTs out to VFR in the afternoon, though it could come as soon as the late morning hours. Winds will primarily be 5 kt or less at SAW/IWd with the occasional 10 kt gust, with CMX also experiencing those winds except for 5-10 kt wings gusting 10-15 kt in the afternoon out of the NW.

MARINE

Issued at 349 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

Northwest winds settle below 20 kts this evening with west to northwest winds 20 kts or less expected through Wednesday evening. Wednesday night brings an increase of southwest winds to 20-25 kts ahead of the next system. A cold front Friday morning quickly veers winds out of the north to gales of at least 35-40 kts across the eastern two thirds of the lake; 20-30 kts winds are expected over the far west. There currently is a 20-40% chance for high end gales to 45 kts over the central third of the lake, currently reflected in the forecast given the cold airmass and strong pressure rises on Friday. This also yields heavy freezing spray into Saturday morning when winds fall back to near 20 kts lake-wide.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.