textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather through tonight ahead of a windy Sunday, with gusts in excess of 35 mph possible (30-60% interior, 80+% at the lakeshores). More lake effect rain is possible (up to 60%) Sunday, mainly in the east half.

- Northwest gales of 35-45 kts over eastern Lake Superior on Sunday.

- Another low pressure passes north of the region Tuesday, leading to another round of potential gusty winds and lake effect precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies overhead the UP and Lake Superior save for some areas of high cirrus and SW lake effect cu in the northwestern lake under localized ridging. Temps in the upper 30s to low 40s warm a bit further to the mid 40s this afternoon. Weak high pressure sprawling south into the lower Midwest gives way to a sharp shortwave that digs across Ontario down through the Great Lakes tonight through Sunday. The resultant sfc low pressure remains well northeast of us, keeping synoptic precip shunted into Canada, but 850 mb temps falling between -1 to -4C above a +9C Lake superior sfc temp average will be enough of a temp differential to produce lake effect rain showers in the east half. Additionally, given the quick uptick in NW flow, light rain showers are possible in the west/central in common upslope enhancement zones of the Keweenaw and Michigamme Highlands. Overall precip amounts look to remain light, generally a dime at most with isolated dime to quarter amounts in more persistent LE rain showers across the far eastern portions of the UP. Pressure rises and cold air advection will contribute to gusty NW winds on the rise through much of Sunday. Ensemble guidance suggests a 70- 100% chance for gales between 35-45 kts across the central and eastern portions of the lake and gusts 25-40 mph along the shores of Lake Superior, greatest between Munising and Grand Marias. These winds will act to build significant wave heights along the central and eastern UP shorelines between 10-15 ft. Stay dry when waves are high!

The cycle repeats itself early next week. Ridging in the wake of this clipper results in another dry period with lighter winds Monday through Tuesday morning. The next shortwave in the clipper train looks to arrive Tuesday afternoon, though once again the low looks displaced too far north and too weak to drive synoptic precipitation for the UP. Colder air in the wake of the clipper will bring lake effect precipitation chances (25-60%) that persists through late week as winds turn northerly. Guidance has trended back on gust potential, not expecting widespread gusts like tomorrow's forecast. Temps return near normal with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 105 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Lake effect clouds have dissipated across Upper Michigan, giving way to mostly clear skies and VFR conditions. Expect VFR to persist through Sunday morning as transient high pressure lingers over the Great Lakes. Cloud cover increases on Sunday as a clipper system crosses northern Ontario, bringing potential for lake effect rain showers in the eastern half of the UP and lowering cigs to the terminals, with around a 50/50 chance for MVFR cigs at CMX and SAW by the end of the TAF period. There will be a brief window of LLWS at the terminals from roughly 00-06z Sun as westerly winds increase aloft and surface winds remain out of the southwest ahead of the approaching system, but these concerns will be short lived as surface winds turn west-northwest and start to gust to 25 kt at IWD and 30-35 kt at CMX and SAW.

MARINE

Issued at 1211 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Lake Superior: A clipper tracking to the north tonight and Sunday increases winds further into tonight to 15-25 kts ahead of the cold front; gusts around 30 kts in the west. Significant wave heights rise to 4-8 ft over the west in response. West winds follow the cold front, becoming 20-30 kts for Sunday lakewide. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the central and eastern lake Sunday morning - night. Strongest winds are expected over the east half where gusts are generally forecast between 35-45 kts. There is potential (10-40% chance) for gales to at least 35 kts over the west early on Sunday with the frontal passage, but continued the Gale Warning in the east where confidence was higher and duration was much longer. Chances of exceeding high end gales >45 kts remain low (20-40% chance) and are highest for the southeastern waters between Big Bay, Stannard Rock and Grand Marais. Higher waves expand to the east, rising to 7-15 ft in the east; waves remain 4-8 ft in the west. High pressure ridging returning Sunday night tapers winds off from west to east, with winds falling below 20 kts Monday morning. Another clipper system tracks north of the lake Monday night into Tuesday, however this system is weaker and guidance has trended back on resulting winds. Gale potential remains low (10-30% chance). High pressure keeps winds seasonally benign the rest of the forecast.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Southwest winds increase this afternoon and evening to 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. West winds behind the cold front with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds fall below 20 kts Sunday evening, remaining near or below 20 kts through the remainder of the forecast.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LSZ244>247.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LSZ248-265.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LSZ249-250-266.

Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... None.