textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread snow is expected across the U.P on Tuesday, Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect.

- A period (2 to 4 hours) of moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow with winds gusting to 35 mph are expected Tuesday mid- morning into the early afternoon over the western and central U.P. making for difficult driving conditions at times.

- Several hours of heavy snow and blowing snow with winds gusting to 35 mph are expected over the eastern U.P. with up to 8 inches of accumulation late morning through the afternoon. This will result in very difficult driving conditions.

- Highs in the upper 30s in the east to mid 40s in the west return on Friday before well below normal temperatures return for this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 436 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Lake effect clouds and snow showers continued to push inland today with the heavier snow showers over the north central U.P. The extent of the lake effect clouds inland was decreasing as onshore flow was becoming lighter and stability was increasing as a ridge of high pressure was building into the area. Temperatures were mainly in the teens with single digits in the Keweenaw and low 20s over southern Menominee County.

Tonight through Tuesday upper level shortwave ridging over the upper Great Lakes will shift east with a relatively zonal flow developing across the northern U.S. as the western ridge flattens out some. A strong, fast moving clipper low will push east out of the Rockies of southern Alberta this afternoon and quickly track to the Upper Great Lakes and over Lake Superior or southern Ontario by Tuesday night. The low then will slowly move east as a sfc high builds into the region. Another strong clipper will track north of the region Thursday night into Saturday bringing warmer temperatures of Friday followed by sharply colder weather for the weekend.

Expect cloud cover to increase late tonight as waa associated with a preceding warm from at 850-700mb moves into the area. Temperatures could fall fairly rapidly over the interior this evening wherever clouds have cleared out but should steady and even recover some as cloud cover increases overnight. Expect lows in the lower single digits but wouldn't be surprised if some locations dip below zero late this evening.

On Tuesday the clipper will push through the area. Despite the waa and isentropic lift dry air in the 900-800mb level will likely keep any precipitation from reaching the ground initially. Moisture and forcing increases as low to mid level front pushes across the U.P during the late morning and afternoon. A period of moderate to heavy snow is likely to precede the front along with southerly winds gusting to 35 mph. The HREF has a 70% or higher chance for moderate snow rates in the western 2/3 of the U.P. with 30-40% chances for one inch per hour rates. Timing differences among members likely bringing down those probabilities a bit. Over the east probabilities for 1 inch per hour are over 90% with enhancement of Lake Michigan. Overall heavier snow will last for 2 to 4 hours as it moves through during the late morning to early afternoon hours. The quick movement of the front will limit the duration of snowfall. Snowfall amounts will generally be around 2" along the MI/WI state line and 2-5" over the northern counties, with higher amounts in the Keweenaw. Lake enhancement with the southerly flow will result in a longer period of heavy snow in the eastern counties late morning into the afternoon. Have opted for a Winter Storm Warning for the eastern counties due to the heavy snow and likely poor visibilities when combined with blowing snow. Issued short duration (six hours) Winter Weather Advisories for the rest of the U.P but expect the heaviest snow will last 2 to 4 hours, shortest duration in the south. While those amounts are on the lower end the higher intensity of the snow and blowing snow warrants headlines as travel conditions will be poor while the band moves through. There are a few outlier solutions, particularly the GFS, that track the low further south and would result in a longer duration of snowfall over the northern counties and thus higher amounts. Stuck with the blended solution at this point in time.

A transition to LES is expected behind front for the NW wind snowbelts. We could see moderate snowfall with inversion heights to 7 kft and convergence with cyclonic flow over the area. Drier low levels will limit LES intensity in the west, with the heavier bands expected to occur in the east. Could need additional winter headlines for the lake effect in the east for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Expect lake effect snow to diminish through the day on Wednesday with highs in the teens and twenties. Temperatures warm further on Thursday into the 20s and as warm as the low 30s in the far west. Friday will be warmer yet with highs reaching into the low 40s before turning much colder behind a strong arctic front pushing through Friday night. There are concerns for blowing snow, especially near Lake Superior with strong winds possible behind the front. Highs over the weekend will be in the teens with low in the single digits below zero Saturday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Lake effect snow showers and gusty winds creating a BLSN threat continue at SAW for a couple more hours while IWD and CMX are up to VFR visibility at MVFR ceilings. A period of VFR and light/variable winds is expected at all sites (shortest at SAW, perhaps only a couple hours) until the arrival of the next system, bringing SHSN, gusty winds, and low ceilings/vis to all sites by Tuesday afternoon. CMX is showing up to 25 percent chances of 1/2SM visibility or lower by 16Z Tuesday with 10-20 percent chances at IWD/SAW, though chances of at least IFR vis there is at least 50%. Ahead of the system, expect some LLWS to affect IWD in the morning hours before southerly winds swing to the southwest.

MARINE

Issued at 436 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Ridging building into the area will result in winds falling below 20 kts this evening and then shifting southerly ahead of an approaching clipper low and increasing to 30 kt by early morning. Southerly winds will develop over the lake Tuesday morning and continue into the afternoon with gales expected over the eastern half of the lake. Tuesday night a front will push through with winds becoming northwest at around 30kt, a few gales are possible. Heavy freezing spray will develop Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday morning. Winds fall back below 20 kt on Wednesday evening as ridging pushes back into the area. Winds remain below 20kt on Thursday. A strong clipper low will move through Ontario on Friday with southerly gales possible by afternoon. An arctic front will push through Friday night with westerly high end gales likely (60% chance) over the eastern half of the lake. Could not rule out storm force gusts as there is a 30% chance Friday night. Heavy freezing spray will accompany the strong westerly winds.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ to 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ Tuesday for MIZ001>005-009-084.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ006- 007-013-014-085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CST Tuesday for MIZ010>012.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ242>244-263-264.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ243>248-264- 265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ245>248-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ249-250-266.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ249-250-266.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ251-267.

Gale Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ248-250.