textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers continue across the northwest wind snow belts of the eastern UP through this evening. Additional snowfall totals peak at around 1-2".

- Northwest wind snowbelts could see accumulating snowfall through the weekend behind a clipper system.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through early next week. Low temperatures in the single digits to below zero are possible both Friday and Saturday nights. Gusty northwest winds will combine to create dangerous sub zero wind chill values.

- Warm-up expected mid to late next week with temperatures climbing above freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Surface analysis/water vapor imagery this afternoon still shows Upper Michigan under northwesterly flow with low pressure now centered over the Maritime Provinces and high pressure tracking through the Mississippi Valley. This has kept the U.P. under lingering lake effect snow all day with persistent bands stretching from Marquette to south of Trenary and from Grand Portal Point southward to Manistique. As inversion heights continue to lower and forecast soundings trend drier, though, expect diminishing snowfall rates through this evening into tonight. Therefore, it will be tough to get much more than 1-2 inches across the eastern U.P. through tonight.

Any break in the snow chances early tomorrow will be short, however, as focus quickly turns to the next clipper system progged for Friday night/Saturday. Snowfall accumulations remain on the lower side with much of the U.P. barely seeing 1 to 2 inches. However, it will once again be the northwest wind snowbelts that have a chance to pick up some higher amounts in the 4 to 8 inch range from Friday night through the weekend with the transition back to lake effect snow.

Other impactful weather through the forecast period will be the plummeting temperatures in the wake of the Friday clipper system. As 850 mb temperatures sink into the -20 to -25C range Friday night, surface temperatures will follow with overnight lows in the -5 to 0 degree range over much of the interior west both Friday and Saturday nights. And, eastern portions won't be much warmer with readings in the single digits above zero. Strong northwesterly winds on the backside of the Friday system will also combine to create sub zero wind chill values. Held off on issuing a Cold Weather Advisory for now, but will need to be considered with future forecast issuances. Tonight, expect lows ranging from the single digits above zero (interior west and central) to teens/low 20s (east and Keweenaw).

Further out, highlights in the extended include a second clipper system Sunday night into Monday with continued variability in tracking and timing. And, then a warm-up is on the horizon for mid to late next week with high temperatures climbing into the 30s for the first time since Thanksgiving.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 646 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Low-end MVFR has been observed at all sites in the 23Z hour, though IWD's coverage has flipped between BKN and SCT, thus rendering some temporary periods of VFR. IWD and SAW will have more consistent SCT- out periods tonight while CMX remains MVFR as winds become light and SWerly. A clipper low then moves over the UP Friday, bringing increased winds out of the W to NW behind the cold front and -SHSN, the combination of which will bring 15-25% chances of periods of LIFR visibility at all sites (though MVFR to IFR will be more prevailing).

MARINE

Issued at 310 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Northwest winds continue to gust to 20-25kts across the eastern half of the lake this morning, slowly falling back through the afternoon. To the west, winds are coming in below 20kts. Expect a brief period of lighter westerly winds below 20 kt across the entire lake into early Friday before winds increase again ahead of the next system. This will bring renewed gale chances by Saturday morning, with a 30-50% probability of gales over central portions of the lake during the weekend, and freezing spray concerns also increasing as a frigid air mass moves over the region.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning for LSZ240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan... None.