textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk of strong to severe storms late this afternoon and evening in the south and east as well as flooding.

- Cooler and generally more pleasant weather in store this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The U.P. and area around it is drying out early this morning as the previous disturbance that moved through this past evening continues eastwards out of our area. While drier conditions are being seen this morning and sunny skies look to mostly return by the mid- morning hours, expect cloud cover to return by the afternoon hours as a cold front pushing in from the west later today will have a shortwave low riding along it into the Upper Great Lakes this evening. While this setup should is looking to bring for some fairly stratiform-looking rainfall, there could be a stronger storm or two seen near Menominee and along the Lake Michigan shoreline this evening. In addition, while PWATs are looking to be no where near as impressive as they were this past evening, with multiple global and CAMs guidance showing some embedded convection potentially dumping over an inch or two of rainfall in some spots, some isolated flooding/low-level flash flooding could be seen over the central and east this evening; this is reflected in the Marginal Risk WPC has generally put us under for today through tonight (a.k.a. at least a 5% chance for excessive rainfall leading to flooding impacts like ponding of water, etc.).

Behind the rainfall this evening, expect cooler and somewhat drier conditions for Friday, this weekend, and next week as an upper-level low over the Hudson Bay region keeps our area downstream of continental Canadian air and a synoptic troughing pattern. Come Friday, a shortwave rotating into the region could kick-off some diurnal showers and potentially a couple of thunderstorms over the interior areas by the afternoon hours. On Saturday, as a second cold front pushes into the region, another shortwave low may ride along the front and bring more rainfall to at least portions of Upper Michigan. While on-and-off rain chances do look to continue for the rest of the period thanks to shortwave lows rotating through the region via the synoptic-scale troughing setup, the cooler and drier air will bring below normal to near normal temperatures (i.e. highs in the 60s and 70s) to the area and dewpoints down into the 40s and 30s (potentially even into the 20s in a couple of spots for the driest days) for much of the rest of the period. While fire weather concerns look to be fairly muted due to the cooler temperatures and continued shortwave action, will continue to monitor the RHs throughout this weekend into next week as we could see min RHs drop below 30% on some days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the early afternoon. FG has been hanging around CMX the last few hours but has moved out of the vicinity at the present time. Winds become westerly over the next few hours and there is a non-zero chance that fog or low stratus pushes off of Lake Superior for a few hours before clearing out. The predictability is rather low and did no include in the TAF at this time.

Another low pressure pushes into the area later today bringing showers back into the U.P. Deep moisture will allow for heavier showers and possibly a thunderstorm though the highest chance for thunder is over the southern and eastern U.P. Expect MVFR and IFR conditions to develop with the showers. The combination of showers and upslope flow could bring low cigs into SAW and CMX late this evening, with LIFR possible (20% chance).

MARINE

Issued at 154 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

As showers and thunderstorms ramp down early this morning, winds are turning to the southwest by the mid-morning hours up to 25 knots as marine fog continues until it starts to dissipate later today via a cold front coming in from the west. However, as a shortwave low rides the cold front into the Upper Great Lakes this evening, we may see a thunderstorm or two return to the eastern lake as winds pick up from the west behind it; expect westerly winds of 20 to 25 knots across the lake late tonight, increasing up to around 30 knots around the Keweenaw by Friday afternoon as a second, weaker shortwave low rotates into the region.

While winds do look to weaken to around 20 knots from the southwest Friday evening, they do look to slowly pick up once again Saturday morning ahead of an incoming cold front and shortwave low riding along said front. West winds of 20 to potentially 30 knots return over the western 2/3rds of the lake by Saturday afternoon before very weak ridging moving in brings light winds of 20 knots or less back across the area Saturday night. However, with a secondary cold front moving back across Lake Superior on Sunday, expect winds to once again increase to 20 to 30 knots from the west by Sunday afternoon.

Moving into early next week, expect the winds to be a little calmer as more ridging tries to move eastwards into the area. However, with low pressure around the Hudson Bay area keeping a generally large- scale troughing pattern overhead through this next week, we may see more times where winds pick up in response to shortwave lows moving through the region.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan... None.