textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisories wind down this evening as lake effect snow showers decrease in coverage and intensity.

- A low pressure system tracking through Lower Michigan late Saturday and Sunday will bring 50-60% chances of 6 inches of system snow along Lake Michigan, and a reinvigoration of Lake Superior lake effect snowfall. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for both the system snow and the lake effect snow.

- Lake effect snow showers persist along with cool overnight lows next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 402 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

KMQT radar returns show the once-proud northwest wind lake effect snowbands breaking apart into a more cellular convection mode, and while a few of these cells are capable of brief spurts of 1"/hr rates, their residence time over any given location will be brief, so the threat posed by the lake effect snow continues to wane. As such, with 6-hr snowfall accumulations now sub-1.5"/6 hr, Winter Weather Advisories will be allowed to expire in the east this evening. Aloft, RAP analysis still shows a vertically stacked closed low over eastern Quebec with primarily northwesterly flow over much of the central CONUS, though a shortwave trough is diving through the Rockies of Montana and Wyoming towards Colorado, where a namesake Low is developing at the surface, deepening from 1008mb to 1004 mb throughout the day today.

That Colorado Low will not be in Colorado forever. Ensembles have honed in on a surface low pressure track from northern Missouri Saturday evening to Central to Lower Michigan Sunday morning and quickly to the Ontario/Quebec line by Sunday night. The synoptic precipitation will be limited to the counties along the Lake Michigan shores plus Luce County. However, with the passage of the low comes another shot of cold air aloft and the cyclonic wind pattern will help reinvigorate lake effect snowfall, first out of the north and becoming northwest. CAMs are starting to hone in on a large northeasterly band during the day Saturday that washes ashore over the west as winds become north to northwest, and if that band retains much of its dominant, long-lake axis intensity, some brief travel hazards cannot be ruled out, however the uncertainty is high in how well that band will hold together as the winds shift, so no Winter Weather Advisories over the west for now. The more noteworthy travel hazards will be in the south-central to east where the synoptic snow gets lake-enhancement from Lake Michigan and for Baraga, Marquette, and Alger Counties, which will get decent lake effect snow showers despite the lack of synoptic snow. HREF LPMM snow plots show a reasonable "worst case scenario" of 6-7 inches of snowfall along the M-35 corridor from Menominee to Escanaba, which would make for some late holiday weekend travel headaches if it verified. However, more reasonable solutions come out to around 5 inches, which is still significant enough to warrant an Advisory, and if the 00Z CAM suite shows continued improving confidence in 6+ inches, an upgrade to a warning cannot be ruled out. To the north, while the depth of the inversion is not overwhelming (~7.5 kft), the DGZ is potentially up to 5 kft deep and the depth of saturation in the column could reach up to 25-30 kft. This, along with the aforementioned cyclonic surface flow and orographic support from the terrain along Lake Superior will lead to some 4-6 inch snowfall totals for Baraga, Marquette, and Alger Counties, with the wilderness north of US-41 from Ishpeming to Marquette Township potentially seeing up to 7 inches. As the low quickly exits the region to the east on Sunday, high pressure wastes no time reestablishing its presence over the Midwest and only light lake effect snow showers remain Sunday evening into next week.

Uncertainty grows into next week as high pressure skirts around the Great Lakes in the wake of the low and then one or more clipper lows pass near the area next week, though ensembles are highly spread on the track, intensity, and timing of such a feature. With Lake Superior around 5 C, 850mb temperatures of around -10 C should all but guarantee at least some presence of LES, and the LREF suggests 50-90% chances of that temperature or cooler, even with periods of SW flow next week. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail at the surface as well, especially overnight, where the NBM calls for single-digit lows for many interior UP locations, including some lows near 0 (though raw, un-"bias corrected" model guidance would suggest warmer temperatures).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 644 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Observations from around the area show mainly VFR conditions across Upper Michigan as of Fri evening, save for some MVFR cigs at KIWD as snow showers linger over the western UP. Expect showers to continue to diminish in coverage over the next few hours, yielding primarily VFR cigs between FL035-045 at the terminals tonight into Saturday morning. Cigs trend back downward towards MVFR 15-18z Sat ahead a low pressure system moving towards Lower Michigan, with snow spreading back into the terminals from the south and bringing low end MVFR/IFR conditions 20-23z Sat.

MARINE

Issued at 402 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Wind gusts are already sub-20 kt in the west half this afternoon, though northwest wind gusts prevail at around 25-30 kt. The weakening trend in those gusts continues, with gusts falling below 20 kt lakewide tonight. Waves will follow in the decreasing trend, falling below 3 ft early Saturday morning. As a low pressure passes over the southern Great Lakes basin, northeast winds pick up to 20- 25 kt in the west Saturday evening, with northerly wind gusts of 25- 30 kt across the lake overnight into Sunday morning. As winds become northwesterly Sunday, a brief, localized gale to 35 knots is possible (around 50 percent), but confidence in the timing and location is too low to issue a watch at this time. Given the fast- moving nature of the system, high pressure will bring winds back down to 20-25 kt Sunday night. From there, uncertainty grows as high pressure to the south of the lake is contrasted by weaker low pressures to the north, with each potential feature bringing the potential for gusty winds and perhaps gales (up to 30 percent chance, highest Monday and Wednesday PM), but predictability is low at this time.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ004>006.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006- 007-014-085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ007-014-085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday for MIZ011>013.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.