textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak cold front may bring light snow showers to the far eastern UP today (20-40% chance). Flurries, light freezing drizzle, and fog may linger through Saturday.

- Well above normal temperatures settle over the region tomorrow through weekend, with highs above freezing each day.

- A series of winter storm system may impact the Great Lakes next week. Uncertainty remains high at this time regarding the track of the systems and impacts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery reveals increasing clouds across Upper Michigan and Lake Superior as mid-level WAA increases ahead of a shortwave diving southeast across northwestern Ontario. Scattered radar in the west and central UP suggest some light snow showers should be seen a the moment, however, suspect that nothing is actually making it to the ground. ASOS obs at IWD and CMX still hold onto Td depressions 10-15 F. Further east, Td deps are less (5- 10F or less), so cant rule out a few flurries should showers hold as they press east. Opting to maintain a dry forecast(0 PoPs) for now through the morning. As this shortwave progresses northeast of Lake Superior through the late morning, a weak cold front may kick off additional light snow showers across the eastern UP, mainly east of Munising. given antecedent dry conditions and overall weak forcing, no accumulations are expected outside of a trace of snow from Newberry to the Soo. Once the front passes, model soundings suggest a stout low-level subsidence inversion developing over much of the UP with ample moisture underneath it. Given the lack of ice in the cloud layer, freezing drizzle would be the main threat, though confidence is low on if this will pose any threat at all. Fog/freezing fog may be present overnight into Saturday. Otherwise, another warm day is in store with daytime highs pushing 40-45F again.

Flurries and areas of light fzdz may continue Saturday and into Sunday as both the NAM and GFS hold onto moisture below a subsidence inversion, though confidence on the spatial extent is low. This may also result in forecast temperatures coming in below the going NBM, which suggests highs in the 30s to low 40s. Otherwise, no meaningful measurable precipitation is expected through the rest of the weekend and into the early portions of next week.

Western troughing finally begins to lift through the Plains and into the Midwest/Great Lakes Tuesday/Wednesday. Deterministic operational models continue to hone in an on active mid to late week period with several opportunities for widespread precipitation. However, run-to- run and model-to-model consistency is not quite there yet to provide any definitive answers. This will be a target of opportunity for future forecast packages this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

LLWS sets up over the terminals early this morning as warm air advection moves over us ahead of an incoming cold front from northern Ontario that arrives this afternoon. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to continue across the terminals until after the cold front pushes through the area by this afternoon. Chances are continuing to increase for sub-VFR conditions behind the cold front this afternoon and evening, especially over CMX where chances for low-level stratus/FG are highest. FG could also form over IWD and SAW this evening too, but thinking weak southerly downslopes will keep conditions from airport mins this evening; nevertheless, included SCT cigs of IFR at IWD and MVFR at SAW this evening to alert you all to the potential for sub-VFR conditions via low-level cloud cover (and possibly FG) near the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Southwest winds will strengthen to 25 kts early this morning as a low pressure moves through Ontario. A cold front will work across Lake Superior through afternoon shifting winds to the northwest, relaxing below 20 kts in the west but still maintaining 25 kts in the east until tonight when winds fall below 15 kts. Winds remain below 20 kts through the weekend, southerly on Saturday and shifting back to the northwest on Sunday. Winds become southerly again on Monday before shifting easterly on Tuesday, with gales possible (50% chance) by Wednesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.