textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather expected through much of the workweek.

- Warmer than normal temperatures persist through the end of October.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

This afternoon GOES water vapor imagery and GFS 500mb model height analysis showed zonal flow in place for the northern tier of the U.S. with the exception of the Pacific Northwest where a trough was beginning to dig south over the adjacent waters of the Pacific. Overall it was a pleasant afternoon for the U.P. with high pressure in control leading to temperatures warming above average, into the upper 50s to low 60s. Skies were mainly sunny and winds were much lighter than the last few days, mainly from the northeast 10 mph or less.

Mainly zonal flow is expected over the next few days with continued unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures in the 60s (10-15F above average) along with dry conditions and relatively light winds. The upper level low pressure near the Pacific Northwest will continue to dig south and cut off from the main flow, moving onshore over California later this week. It will then transition to an open wave and lift northeast through the intermountain west. Downstream ridging will amplify over the Midwest helping to maintain the warm and dry weather across the U.P. through the end of the work week. Thereafter the low will lift into the Northern Plains and into Ontario this weekend. Ahead of the system southerly winds will increase leading to another warm and windy weekend. This could lead to elevated fire weather conditions, particularly on Sunday when post-frontal west-southwest winds and subsidence will combine for drier and windy conditions. However, details are still murky at this time and probabilities for critical fire weather conditions remain low, less than 15%. With the front there will be a chance for showers (30% chance) this weekend but moisture is very limited and widespread, appreciable rainfall is not expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period with winds less than 10 kt. Will continue to leave mention of fog out at this time due to dry air in the lower levels.

MARINE

Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

High pressure will dominates the forecast through Friday with winds mainly below 20 kts on both Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan. An exception to this is southwest winds gusting up to 25 kts Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front on Lake Superior, mainly along and east of the Keweenaw. A stronger low pressure system tracking to the north of Lake Superior this weekend alongside its stronger cold front bring back a longer period of southerly 20-30 kt winds late Friday through Saturday, veering west for Sunday in the wake of the cold front. Gale probabilities currently are low (~20-40% chance on Lake Superior and less than 10% on Lake Michigan).

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.