textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and freezing rain will develop late Monday afternoon before transitioning to snow Monday night. Freezing rain accumulations of up to a tenth inch are expected in the central and east-central U.P, with mainly rain changing to snow in the west where temperatures are expected to be above freezing initially. 1-3 inches of snowfall is expected, highest east. Untreated surfaces and particularly secondary roads that are snow packed could become very slippery.

- Warmer than normal temperatures make a return this week. This could create areas along the Great Lakes shorelines and possibly inland lakes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

This afternoon satellite and model height analysis showed an upper level ridge approaching the area ahead of the next system that will impact the U.P. Weak waa was bringing mid-level cloudiness though there were breaks in the west-central and far eastern U.P. Southerly flow was bringing clouds off of Lake Michigan with flurries spreading as far north as Marquette. Temperatures started out below zero over the east with single digits in the west and central due to clouds that helped bring temps up early this morning. Temperatures had warmed into the 20s in the west and upper teens in the east.

Tonight the approaching upper level ridge will move overhead as multiple shortwaves move onshore in the Pacific Northwest. Clouds will continue to develop with weak waa along with the chance for light snow in the central and east if the precipitation aloft can overcome the dry layer in the mid levels. Any snowfall will be limited to a dusting. Cloud cover will help keep temps warmer, mainly teens except in the far east where single digits can be expected due to less cloudiness.

On Monday expect southwesterly flow aloft to strengthens as a shortwave trough approaches the area. Elevated precipitation will occur at times through the day but dry air 1.0-1.5km above ground level will likely keep much of it from reaching the ground through the late morning hours. Some concern that freezing drizzle could develop due to low level saturation below a strong stable layer during the morning hours. Did not include it in the forecast at this time due to low confidence, it will certainly be something to keep an eye on. During the late afternoon hours precipitation is expected to intensify as waa strengthens along with an area of FGEN sloped from 850 to 700mb over the northern half of the U.P. As lift intensifies and deeper moisture moves over the area expect the dry layer to erode and precipitation to start reaching the ground. A warm layer of 1-3C at ~850mb will result in a period of rain and freezing rain at the precipitation onset. Temperatures over the western U.P should be above freezing but for the central and east temperatures are expected to remain below freezing, and thus freezing rain can be expected. Eventually rain and freezing rain will transition to snow as evaporative cooling helps erode the warm layer but how quickly that happens is still uncertain. In general a glaze to up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation can be expected in the central and east-central U.P. It doesn't take much ice to create problems, especially for untreated surfaces and secondary roads that are already snow packed. By midnight Tuesday most areas should transition to a wetter snow with up to an inch in the north-central and 1-3" in the east. It should also be noted that mainly snow is expected at this time from eastern Schoolcraft and far eastern Alger county. Have hoisted Winter Weather Advisories for the central and eastern U.P starting Monday late afternoon through midnight Tuesday, except kept them going until Monday morning in the east. This excludes Luce county at this time as mainly snow is expected but looks to remain below advisory criteria.

A cold front pushes through Tuesday morning with winds shifting northwesterly. It is not particularly cold behind the front with highs still getting into the 20s and as warm as the low 30s along Lake Michigan/Bay of Green Bay. Some lake effect snow showers are expected but with marginal delta-Ts, right around -13C, and low inversion heights the intensity should remain on the lighter side. Some mid-level moisture passes through during the day though which could result in light accumulations over the Northwest wind snowbelts of the west, however as dry air works into the area Tuesday night expect lake effect to largely shut down there. For the east lake effect will continue into Wednesday but dry air and low inversion heights will keep the intensity on the light side, with less than an inch of accumulation. Expect a warming trend Thursday through the weekend as troughing develops over the western U.S with ridging downstream over the central U.S. NBM probabilities for highs of 32F+ are in the 60-80% range on Thursday, increasing to near 100% over the southern U.P for the weekend to 60-80% over the north. Still uncertainty with a low that is set to eject from the Rockies on Friday. Most guidance wants to track it east through the southern U.S but a few ensembles still are holding on to a deepening low that lifts northeast towards the Great Lakes; though it is becoming increasingly unlikely. Temperatures are expected to fall well below freezing during the nighttime hours which could limit impacts to lake ice, however, those recreating on the ice should be mindful of possible changing ice conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

A low-level southerly flow regime will prevail through the TAF period, with minimal changes of significance from current conditions. MVFR cigs are expected to continue at SAW, and a few flurries or light snow showers cannot be ruled out at times, especially overnight into the early morning. VFR expected to prevail at IWD and CMX. A pair of shortwaves working through the northern Great Lakes after daybreak will lower cigs to MVFR/IFR and overspread light wintry precipitation across the area, mainly after 18z. Freezing rain is expected at times, mainly at SAW, before transitioning to light snow towards the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 329 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Southerly winds will strengthen to 30kt over the eastern half of the lake tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure. Winds look to remain under 25kt for the west through Monday. A cold front will sweep across the lake early Tuesday with winds increasing to 30kt from the northwest across the lake. The chance for gales increases to 40-60% during the afternoon and evening Tuesday for the eastern lake, mainly east of the Keweenaw Peninsula. Freezing spray will accompany the stronger winds but heavy freezing spray is not expected at this time. Winds fall below gale Tuesday night but expect northwest winds to 25kt to continue into Wednesday over the east, with light winds below 20kt over the west. Winds shift south to southwesterly for Thursday and into Friday, remaining below 20 kt across the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon to 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for MIZ004- 005-010>013.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ006-014-085.

Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.