textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow gradually comes to an end across the east this evening. There is a chance (10-30%) for widespread light snow to develop across the area again tonight, but expect no more than an inch or so of additional accumulation.

- Warmer than normal temperatures make a return next week. This will create areas of unstable ice on inland lakes and along the Great Lakes shorelines.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Afternoon radar and satellite imagery reveal lake effect snow bands continuing to weaken across the eastern half of the UP as surface high pressure moves over central Lake Superior, with mostly sunny skies in place over the western half. Expect lake effect to continue to diminish and eventually come to an end this later evening as high pressure continues to shift east across the area. There will then be a chance for light stratiform snow to develop across the area tonight as a subtle mid level disturbance and weak isentropic ascent move over the west-central UP. However, 12z guidance has somewhat backed off of this solution and kept the bulk of the precipitation south of the area, with most hi-res models now keeping much of the UP completely dry overnight. Have trended PoPs downward tonight accordingly, but regardless would expect only a dusting to an inch at most across most of the area even if the snowier solution ultimately comes to fruition.

Sunday will bring the beginning of a steady upward trend in temperatures as upper level troughing over eastern Canada shifts away from the region and allows ridging to build in from the west. Thus expect a mostly dry day with highs rebounding above seasonal norms into the mid to upper 20s across most of the UP. The exception will be in the far east where temperatures may still struggle to get out of the teens across Luce County Sunday afternoon. The next clipper crosses Lake Superior Sunday night into Monday, but at this point expect only another dusting of snow up to an inch or so. Meanwhile, warming 850 mb temps and southerly low level flow will send high temperatures into the 30s over much of the area on Monday, with the NBM depicting a 50-70% chance to exceed 32F across the central UP and 90+ percent in the west. The latest system in the clipper parade then crosses the region Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the bulk of the guidance again depicting fairly minimal snow amounts at this time.

Forecast uncertainty increases mid to late next week as split flow is featured across the western CONUS in the upper levels. Ensemble clusters favor ridging over the UP during this time, which would keep temperatures near or above freezing for much of the work week. Those looking to venture out onto the ice will need to keep an eye on the forecast as the potential for an extended period of temperatures near or above freezing will contribute to unsafe ice conditions whether on inland lakes or on the shores of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, GEFS continues to hint at a potential Colorado low impacting the region next weekend, but confidence in this scenario is very low as the Canadian and Euro ensemble suites either track the system well south of the UP or maintain high pressure over the Midwest and steer the southern stream system over the Southeast US.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 100 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

High pressure ridging building through the U.P. this afternoon will bring a progressive end to the lake effect cloud cover and -shsn. However, not very confident on the end time of -shsn over SAW this afternoon as winds have veered more N'rly with time and -SHSN is still pushing into the terminal as of around 12PM LST, even as winds weaken and despite model guidance for the past several hours showing -SHSN to have already ended (even though this clearly isn't the case). However, I do think that the -SHSN will end over SAW late this afternoon/early this evening before a weak shortwave low moves in this evening through tonight. While there is a 30% or lower chance of mostly VFR -SN across the region tonight, with the previous shift noting that snowfall precip amounts have continued to trend lighter and the most recent guidance continuing that trend, the terminals may see only flurries or nothing during the overnight hours. Because of this, decided to remove PROB30 -SN chances across the terminals tonight. Expect the VFR conditions to continue across the terminals Sunday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 143 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Northwest winds have diminished to 15-20 kt across the eastern half of Lake Superior this afternoon and will continue to fall to around 10-15 kt through this evening as surface high pressure moves over the lake. This will allow remaining small craft and freezing spray headlines to drop off later this evening as wave heights subside below 4 feet. Winds will shift southerly on Sunday and increase back into the 20-30 kt range across the eastern half of the lake on Sunday night ahead of the next clipper approaching the region on Monday. Will then see another period of enhanced west-northwest winds in the wake of another system passing north of the lake on Tuesday, followed by fairly benign conditions for the rest of the week. Gale probabilities remain below 10% through the period.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.