textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms depart the far eastern UP this afternoon. Low temperatures fall into the 40s to near 50, coolest interior.

- Cooler and generally more pleasant weather begins Sunday. Daily chances for rain return Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Broad troughing persists over the northern CONUS as a closed low spins in far northern Ontario, pinwheeling embedded shortwaves into the northern Great Lakes. Another wave passing overhead in conjunction with daytime heating and lake breezes from both Lakes Superior and Michigan has fired off a line of scattered thunderstorms in the far eastern UP. As of writing this discussion, scattered storms are already departing our CWA and diminishing in intensity across Mack/Chip counties. Winds will lighten this evening while a cooler airmass settling over the region kicks off a few days of below normal temperatures. Latest guidance continues to suggest Sunday highs will peak in the low to mid 60s, except closer to 70 by the Bay of Green Bay. These daytime highs will warm into the mid 60s to low to mid 70s for a majority of the coming week. Overnight lows in the 40s will be widespread away from the lakeshores.

A weak wave moving through tomorrow morning may support early light rain, but the next best chance for rainfall comes Monday afternoon/evening in the west half thanks to another shortwave rotating through the broad trough aloft. Latest NBM only suggests a 30-50% chance for a quarter inch of rain, largely confined to the south-central and eastern UP. Thereafter, daily rain chances return for the Great Lakes but differences in the track/location of each wave suggest lower confidence. There does continue to be indications of a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall event moving through the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. Ensemble probabilities are a bit more excited about widespread rain, averaging a 50-75% chance for amounts >0.25" by Thursday morning, greatest chance south half.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 209 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the remainder of today, and developing cloud bases will result in MVFR ceilings this evening at KIWD/KCMX and later tonight at KSAW. Recent model runs are trending with increasing MVFR probabilities over 50%, especially during the overnight hours, so went with MVFR for longer in the period. KCMX will continue to see gusts of 30-35 kt for the remainder of today, laying down tonight with gusts to 20 kt, before picking up again tomorrow. Gusty conditions at KIWD and KSAW today will decrease overnight to <10 kt; winds at KIWD are expected to pick up again tomorrow morning, gusting to 20 kt.

MARINE

Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Gusty winds upwards of 30-35 kts have been observed ahead of and now post cold frontal passage across the west and central lake. Expecting these elevated winds to persist through the afternoon before settling tonight to near 20 kts or less. Another shot of cold air aloft will uptick westerlies between 25-30 kts with isolated gusts between 30-35 kts near the Keweenaw tomorrow afternoon. Breezy afternoon winds 20-25 kts are likely (50-70% chance) Monday then begin to quiet down into the middle week remaining largely below 20 kts.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.