textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry air and windy conditions could increase fire weather concerns this weekend.

- Gales are possible over western Lake Superior on Saturday and again on Sunday.

- Expect dry weather this weekend through at least the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

As CAA ceases this evening with high pressure ridging and drier air moving in, expect the last of the lake effect rain showers to end over the eastern U.P. tonight. While there could be a changeover to snow at times over the north central and east the rest of this afternoon and evening as temperatures continue to gradually cool (melting layer is practically now at the sfc), no accumulations are expected given the warm ground and (mostly) above freezing temperatures expected across the area the rest of today through tonight. Expect the remaining liquid to be received across the north wind belts today through this evening to be less than a tenth of an inch.

Drier weather returns this weekend and looks to stay in place across Upper MI through at least early next week. With drier air being advected in from the Southern Plains, we could see elevated fire weather concerns back across the area this weekend as gusty southwest winds in association with a LLJ return to the area and RHs potentially drop into the 20 percents. However, given the recent rainfall and cooler temperatures expected (particularly on Saturday where highs are only projected to get into the 50s), this risk is expected to be fairly mitigated. That being said, with the ongoing drought concerns still to deal with as well as fallen leaves at the sfc, elevated fire weather concerns could be realized by Sunday across the west half of Upper Michigan.

From Monday onwards next week, fairly quiet weather is expected across the area. While we may have a cold front skirt us and bring some rain showers overhead around Wednesday/Thursday, with more high pressure ridging building into the central CONUS by the end of next week, we may remain dry for the rest of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Gusty northerly winds upwards of 25-35 kts and lake effect rain is present this afternoon as the UP is sandwiched between a deepening low to the east and incoming sc high pressure to the west. Rain showers are expected to linger at SAW through the evening before drier air working into the region tonight tapers off precipitation. MVFR cigs at all sites slowly climb to VFR tonight with diminishing lake effect clouds. Strong winds relax overnight as the pressure gradient slackens.

MARINE

Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Lake Superior: North gales up to 40 to potentially 45 kts over the eastern lake this afternoon give way to light winds of 20 kts or less after midnight tonight as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. Don't expect the light winds to stay for long, however, as the pressure gradient over the western lake tightens and a LLJ approaches the area. With the help of some funneling along the Bayfield and Keweenaw Peninsulas, a narrow band of gales up to 35 kts could return to western Lake Superior on Saturday (up to a 60% chance according to the REFS). However, after collaborating with NWS DLH, given the uncertainty on the strength of the mixing in the boundary layer, we decided to hold off on issuing a Gale Watch/Warning for Saturday at this time. That being said, a short- fused Gale Warning may be issued for the western lake later tonight or even on Saturday should confidence in the gales increase. A much higher chance of southwest gales occurring over the western half of the lake arrives Saturday night into Sunday; the latest REFS has low- end gale chances at nearly 100% then. However, as high pressure ridging strengthens over the region early next week, expect the winds to fall back down to 20 kts or less by early Monday morning and to remain that way through the rest of the first half of next week, potentially even through the entire rest of next week.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Northerly gales up to 35 kts this afternoon weaken to 15 kts or less after midnight tonight as high pressure ridging builds back into the region. Don't expect the lighter winds to last all that long though as a tightening pressure gradient and incoming LLJ bring southwest winds of 25 to 30 kts back across the area on Saturday. The winds may even intensify a few knots Saturday night into Sunday, and gales up to 35 kts could be seen by Sunday morning (up to a 90% chance according to the latest REFS). However, with high pressure ridging building over the Upper Great Lakes early next week, expect the winds to die down to 15 kts or less again by Monday morning and to remain that way through the rest of the first half of next week, potentially even through the entire rest of next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243>247-264.

Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for LSZ248>250-265- 266.

Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221-248-250.