textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Another period of light mixed precipitation (mainly rain becoming snowfall) is possible tonight as a cold front pushes south through the area.

- A somewhat active pattern continues next week, with multiple systems bringing additional precipitation chances to the U.P.

- Expect more normal temperatures next week. This should limit and slow down the snowmelt across the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

As a Clipper low continues through the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon into this evening, we can see via the KMQT radar that precipitation associated with the low is ending from west to east in association with the warm front of the low. With the warm sector of the low bringing well-above normal temperatures already over the far west early this afternoon, expect the western U.P. to get into the 50s before this evening, with some spots potentially even getting into the lower 60s near the Wisconsin border. With a mix of freezing rain and wet snow being observed at the office this morning, expect snow if not a rain/snow mix to be seen across the eastern U.P. the rest of today as cooler temperatures over there will allow for the colder wintry precipitation types. While some light to occasionally moderate snowfall looks to have been possible over the far east (i.e. the Luce County area) this morning, with the best isentropic lift being seen further east this afternoon, expect maybe an additional inch or so of wet snow before precipitation associated with the warm front of the Clipper ends. Overall, thinking the central and east will be significantly cooler than the western U.P. today, with highs in the central only getting into the 40s while the eastern U.P. is looking to stay locked into the mid- to upper 30s thanks to cloud cover hanging around for longer and the thermal gradient across our area being oriented from northwest to southeast (warmer southwest, cooler northeast).

The back-door cold front of the Clipper low is expected to come through the U.P. tonight. As it does so expect light precipitation, with initially rain and rain/snow showers to become all snow showers over the north wind upslope areas late tonight. While 850mb temperatures drop down to around -9C by Sunday morning, given the weak delta-Ts snow showers are looking to be mostly upslope driven over the north wind snow belts late tonight through Sunday before maybe becoming lake effect later in the day Sunday as delta-Ts slightly increase into the lower teens C. As high pressure builds back in on Sunday, thinking the upslope/weak lake effect snow showers to end late Sunday, even though there is a chance (20% or less) that we could see light lake effect snow showers continue into Monday. Overall, maybe an inch or two could be seen late tonight through Sunday evening across the north wind snow belts; otherwise, not much is expected from this other than everywhere in the U.P. looking to get below freezing late tonight/early Sunday morning (save for maybe near Menominee?).

Expect an active pattern for next week as a mid-level high builds then deteriorates over the western U.S. throughout the next several days. This could set us up for multiple Clipper shortwave lows impacting our area, with the next one looking to arrive around the Tuesday time period. As of right now, it appears that we will likely see mainly snowfall with this system, with the snowfall potentially being moderate (1/2 inch per hour) at times. However, with temperatures being near freezing in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, we may see a change over to rain during the daytime hours if temperatures get warm enough. Thus, with this Clipper we may see anywhere from several inches of snowfall to just wet surfaces across the area.

With temperatures next week projected to be cooler than what we've seen the past couple of days (including today), expect the flooding concerns to diminish across the area beginning next week. Expect high and low temperatures to be around normal next week, occasionally oscillating between above and below normal ahead of and behind the Clipper lows. While some snow melt may be seen next week, expect it to be slower and limited than the past couple of days as lows will get below freezing and highs will struggle to get above freezing on some days (although the high sun angle will still help to melt the snowpack on sunnier days, even if the temperatures fail to completely get above freezing).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

A pair of weak systems will impact the terminals through the TAF period. The first is ongoing, having already departed IWD, leaving a period of VFR, but SAW and CMX are at LIFR to airport minimums early this afternoon. Slight improvement to IFR at the eastern terminals is expected as lingering moisture over a deep and ripe snowpack will keep low ceilings and some FG in the forecast throughout the period. Around sunset, conditions deteriorate at IWD to IFR as well. With the second system overnight, a mix of RA and SN will impact SAW and potentially IWD as well, though CMX will only see chances of precipitation up to 15 percent. By Sunday afternoon, slight improvement to MVFR is expected at IWD and SAW, with all sites seeing northerly to northeasterly winds of around 10 kt with some gusts at CMX in excess of 20 kt.

MARINE

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Southeast winds of 20 to 30 knots across the eastern half of the lake gives way to north/northeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots across the entire lake tonight as the Clipper low responsible passes through the western Great Lakes and the back-door cold front moves over Lake Superior; there is over a 20% chance for gales up to 34 knots late tonight into Sunday morning as freezing spray returns over the lake. Winds die down to 20 knots or less by Sunday evening as high pressure ridging builds into the region.

The light winds are expected to continue until another Clipper low approaches the area Monday night. As it does so, expect winds to pick up from the south and southwest, with up to a 25% chance of getting up to low-end gales over the eastern lake. After the Clipper low moves through around the Tuesday time period, expect winds to veer northwest/northerly and to decrease behind the low before increasing from the north to northeast late Tuesday via the back- door cold front; expect freezing spray to return to the lake Tuesday night with the stronger winds, potentially becoming heavy at spots. As a shortwave low lifts from the Rockies and another Clipper digs towards the Upper Great Lakes by the middle of next week, expect the winds to become easterly on Wednesday. As the winds continue to veer, expect them to generally become southerly Wednesday night before becoming northwesterly/northerly behind the Clipper low on Thursday; there is currently up to a 40% chance for gales Wednesday night into Thursday, and freezing spray is once again expected to return to the lake on Thursday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.