textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers return tonight and continue through the work-week as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Periods of blowing snow and moderate (1/2 inch per hour) snowfall rates are possible (40-50% chance).

- Cold weather persists through the end of the week, with daytime highs in the single digits to teens and overnight lows mostly staying below or near zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 358 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Afternoon GOES Water Vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a broad mid level troughing pattern over eastern CONUS/Canada. Within this pattern an elongated trough extends from the Lower Great Lakes down into the Southeastern US with a weak/brief ridge overtop the Upper Great Lakes. Upstream is the focus of the short term forecast, a shortwave and clipper low over the Manitoba/Ontario province line. Surface ridging extending northeast into the Great Lakes from a high pressure over the Southern Plains gives way this afternoon to the approaching clipper system which tracks along the northeast shores of Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday morning. This sends a light round of snow (widespread trace to 0.3 inches of snow) from west to east over the UP this evening into tonight followed by lake effect snow showers over the northwest wind snowbelts. Inversion heights of ~6kft, strong delta-ts, and a better (although shallow and at the surface) DGZ will yield light to moderate snowfall rates despite unimpressive moisture. 2-5 inches of snow is expected over the northwest wind snow belts by Tuesday evening, highest amounts from the Porcupine Mountains up through the Keweenaw as well as the area east of Munising and north of M-28. Northeast winds gusting to 20-30 mph late tonight through Tuesday could also yield some blowing snow, particularly near Lake Superior. With moderate snowfall rates and blowing snow at times, some minor impacts are likely during the Tuesday commutes in the northwest wind snowbelts.

In the wake of this shortwave, a closed low over Hudson Bay gradually spins shortwaves over Upper Michigan through Thursday morning as it descends south over Ontario. Thursday and Thursday night the now elongated wave finally presses south over the UP. The cold airmass and reinforcing shortwaves continue light to moderate lake effect snow over the northwest to north wind snow belts this work week. The colder than normal temps (5F to 10F below normal) also continue under this pattern; highs in the single digits above to teens and lows in the single digits above and below 0F. This cold air could become a limiting factor for lake effect snow depending on how much ice growth occurs.

A positively tilted mid level ridge and surface high pressure then interrupts this pattern, bringing a warm up and end to lake effect snow over the UP. How long this break lasts is unclear as guidance quickly falls apart. Highs this weekend into next week look to return to the 20s with lows in the single digits above to teens.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR continue at IWD and SAW this afternoon, while so far, lingering lake effect at CMX continues to lead to MVFR/IFR restrictions. This should improve to VFR over the next couple of hours as snow lifts offshore.

A fast moving low pressure will bring a band of light snow through the U.P this evening, lasting about 2 to 4 hours at any given location. MVFR cigs and IFR visby can be expected as this band pushes though at all the TAF sites.

During the overnight lake effect snow will quickly develop at CMX, continuing MVFR and IFR conditions there. At IWD mainly MVFR can be expected overnight, followed by possible IFR visby as lake effect snow showers move in around morning. For SAW conditions should be MVFR overnight and improve to VFR by morning.

MARINE

Issued at 358 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Southwest winds increase to 35-40 kt gales briefly over the west this evening into tonight with 20-30 kt winds over the east as a clipper system approaches. Winds veer northwest tonight maintaining 20-30 kts lakewide through Tuesday with strong pressure rises and a cold airmass overhead. A few northwest gale force gusts to 35 kts can't be ruled out on Tuesday (20-40% chance). Expect significant wave heights of 8-12ft and heavy freezing spray during this period.

Heavy freezing spray concerns continue lakewide through the mid-week as the gusty northwest winds persist up to 20-25 kts. This becomes focused over the east half of the lake late week as winds veer north and winds slacken over the west. High pressure returning this weekend calms conditions on the lake as winds drop to 20 kts or less and heavy freezing spray ends.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Tuesday for LSZ162.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ162-263-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan... None.