textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to heavy lake effect snow and northerly wind gusts of 40- 50 mph near Lake Superior will combine to produce hazardous travel conditions across the northern tier of the UP this morning. Highest additional snow amounts expected from eastern Marquette County to western Alger County. Conditions will gradually improve through the afternoon.

- The weather pattern for the back half of the work week through the weekend will be periodic Clipper low pressure systems followed by lake effect snow, accompanied by gusty winds and below normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 435 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

GOES water vapor imagery reveals a potent shortwave diving southeast over northern Wisconsin early this morning, helping to dig a large scale trough centered over Hudson Bay and opening the door to strong cold air advection characterized by 850 mb temperatures which have plummeted to -20C over Lake Superior and Upper Michigan overnight. At the surface, a strong cold front extending from a 988 mb low analyzed over western Quebec has cleared the UP and continues to race south through Wisconsin and northern Lower Michigan, leaving north winds gusting as high as 40-50 mph along the Lake Superior shoreline in its wake. Multiple lake effect snow bands have set up across the northern tier of the UP as model soundings indicate a deep and well saturated dendritic growth zone with inversion heights climbing to around 5 kft. The dominant band is noted on radar over eastern Marquette County, extending south-southeastward from near Marquette and paralleling M-41 as of 4 AM EST. This band will be capable of producing local snowfall rates approaching 1" per hour through daybreak, and thus expect the highest additional snowfall totals to be concentrated between Marquette and Munising where another 3-5" will be possible through early this afternoon. Moderate to locally heavy snow coupled with strong winds will continue to produce localized areas of near zero visibility, making for hazardous travel conditions across the Lake Superior adjacent portions of the UP through later this morning.

COnditions will improve by the afternoon as winds diminish and snow fall rates start to come down behind the departing system. That said, lake effect will not completely shut off, particularly in the north wind snowbelts across the north-central U.P, where an additional 2" or so of fluffy accumulation will be possible from Marquette County into western Alger. Will then finally get a break in the precipitation as high pressure briefly moves overhead on Thursday.

The next clipper low approaches Thursday evening. Euro ensembles highlight the highest potential for advisory-level snowfall (3+ inches) over the terrain of Gogebic and Ontonagon counties Friday and Saturday with the rest of the UP seeing generally less snowfall. By the time this low pushes out Saturday afternoon, the cool air in the wake of the low will keep Saturday's highs only in the teens (NBM lows as low as 12 in Ironwood). With another clipper low forecast to pass through the region later in the weekend, more light- to-moderate lake-enhanced and lake-effect snow will be followed by another shot of cold air, with NBM low temperatures widespread in the negatives Monday and Tuesday mornings. Given the gusty conditions that tend to follow in the wake of clipper lows, wind chills in the negative double digits are a possibility to end the weekend and kick off next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 643 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Heavy to moderate lake effect snow continues for the NNW wind snowbelts today. IFR or lower cigs/vis are currently being seen at all sites. Of note are several dominant bands aimed at the central UP impacting SAW. These conditions will persist through much of the morning before lake effect snow intensity diminishes into the afternoon. Lake effect snow showers will taper off from west to east this afternoon, ending at IWD/CMX closer to 18z. Blowing snow at both sites may continue to impact vis despite snow no longer falling. MVFR cigs/vis return to all sites by at least 00z. Northerly gusts 25-35 kts will be common this morning.

MARINE

Issued at 435 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

High end Gales continue across much of Lake Superior this morning as a strong upper level wave crosses overhead and the surface pressure gradient is squeezed between a strong low over Quebec and high pressure over the northern Plains, a with a handful of storm force gusts noted on available observing platforms overnight. Expect Gales to gradually diminish over the western end of the lake by later this morning and then across the central and eastern lake this afternoon, but heavy freezing spray will persist through later this evening as winds continue to gust to 20-30 kt within a frigid air mass moving over the lake. Waves will gradually subside from 10-18 feet over the central and eastern lake currently to 6-10 feet this evening and eventually below 4 ft by Thursday morning.

A pair of weak clipper lows is then forecast to move near or over the lake, first between late Thursday night and early Saturday morning and then again between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. Ahead of the first low, southwesterly wind gusts of 25-30 kt are expected Thursday evening with chances of gales 15-30 percent (highest around Isle Royale) and moderate freezing spray. Winds briefly fall near and below 20 kt Friday morning before the northwesterlies in the wake of the low ramp up to 30 kt (with a 30 percent chance of a few gale force gusts). Northwesterly gusts will have a better chance at gales around the Keweenaw Peninsula Sunday night at around 40 percent. Moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected Friday evening through the weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ001>003-009.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ004>007-085.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for LSZ162-240>244-263-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for LSZ162-240>242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ243>251-264>267.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ245>251- 265>267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ221-250.