textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers continue over the north wind snow belts through Friday night as a couple more disturbances pass through the region.

- Lingering moderate snowfall rates and patchy blowing snow could produce localized visibility reductions across the Keweenaw and also Alger County into this evening.

- Very cold in the east again tonight into Friday morning, with wind chills as low as -25F.

- Temperatures finally return to around normal this weekend, continuing through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

The upper level pattern this afternoon is dominated by an elongated 500 mb trough with an axis extending from the Canadian maritime provinces across the Upper Great Lakes and into central Manitoba, maintaining a northerly lake effect snow regime over Upper Michigan today. A weak surface trough is analyzed over the eastern half of Lake Superior, which has been helping to maintain a dominant convergence band which had been parked over the western extent of Alger County for much of the day but has now showed signs of weakening as it shifts back into the eastern half of the county. Radar and satellite imagery reveal a somewhat complex lake effect scenario taking shape this afternoon, with influences from ongoing but weakening convergence, fairly strong land breezes, and the presence of multiple mesolows. A new NW-SE oriented band has also formed offshore of eastern Marquette County and extends into western Alger County. Have tentatively left the ongoing winter headlines in place through 7 PM this evening as HREF depicts most of the heavier snowfall rates remaining offshore. However, will have to closely watch radar and satellite trends through this evening as the southward progression of the trough eventually brings some of this activity onshore later this evening as depicted by various hi-res models. May need to consider some short fused headline extensions or special weather statements for lakeshore adjacent parts of Alger and Marquette Counties as any of the radar features currently noted offshore may be capable of producing an hour or two of localized moderate snowfall and significant visibility reductions should they make their way onshore this evening.

Aside from the ongoing lake effect snow concerns, the eastern UP will be in for another night of temperatures in the negative teens and wind chills in the -20 to -25F range as northerly flow maintains cold air drainage out of NE Ontario. Impacted areas will be slightly expanded from last night, with the latest Cold Weather Advisory in effect for Luce, Schoolcraft, Alger, and Delta Counties through Friday morning. Temperatures will warm back into the teens across the area during the day on Friday, with warmer overnight lows then expected for Friday night as temperatures mainly stay in the single digits above zero across the east. Otherwise, troughing maintains a mainly light lake effect regime in the northerly wind snow belts through Friday night, with an additional 1-2 inches expected for most areas adjacent to Lake Superior and perhaps slightly more for parts of Alger County and Keweenaw.

Will finally start to see some more noteworthy changes in the pattern by this weekend as the upper level trough drops south of the region and allows positively tilted upper level ridging to build into the Upper Great Lakes from the west. This will mostly bring an end to lake effect this weekend, with daytime temperatures rebounding closer to or even slightly above normal highs in the 20s for the first time in several weeks. Another weak trough may bring some light snow early next week, but high pressure should generally help to keep lake effect at bay through much of next week as delta- Ts only get into the teens at times. Expect high temperatures to generally remain in the 20s, with overnight lows in the single digits above to the low teens through much of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1239 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Lake effect SHSN pattern continues tonight, but will slowly decrease throughout the day, ending after 00Z at all sites. IWD will look to bear the brunt of this as chances of LIFR ceilings are 30-40 percent each hour through 16Z, with MVFR ceilings over 50 percent likely thereafter. CMX will have its worst flight restrictions of the period in the afternoon hours as winds gusting to near 20 kt will create a BLSN threat even as chances of SHSN decrease to near 30 percent. Chances of IFR conditions are 50+ percent at CMX as a result. Despite SAW falling to the 30s percent chances of SHSN by 12Z, chances of MVFR ceilings 17Z and beyond are high (70+%) with gusty winds in excess of 25 knots helping drive visby to at least MVFR (80+%), probably IFR (60+%), and potentially even periods of LIFR (20+%).

MARINE

Issued at 345 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

A passing upper level trough will maintain northerly winds of 20-25 kt and 3-6 ft wave heights over Lake Superior through Friday night, resulting in small craft headlines in the nearshores and ongoing heavy freezing spray concerns through early Saturday morning. Conditions will improve as high pressure builds overhead this weekend, allowing winds to diminish below 20 kt across the lake. Winds increase to 20-25 kt again out of the southwest on Sunday ahead of the next trough, then shifting northwesterly in its wake through early next week. Do not expect any gales as probabilities remain low through the period.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ006- 007-013-014-085.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for LSZ240>242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243-244-249-250-264-266.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ245>248-265.

Lake Michigan... None.