textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures expected this weekend. Highs into the 80s are possible over the western UP Saturday and Sunday.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Ontonagon and Gogebic Counties this weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the U.P. Saturday and Sunday.

-Chance for widespread scattered rain showers with limited accumulations Monday afternoon to Tuesday morning.

-Temperatures return to near-normal Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Current visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the U.P. this afternoon. Temperatures are in the upper 50s near the lakeshore and low 60s in the southern portion of the forecast area. An area of surface high pressure has been building throughout the day and is expected to continue strengthening as it moves eastward. At the upper levels, a 500mb ridge is amplifying over the Plains as a trough moves off the coast of northern Canada.

500mb ridging will continue to amplify tonight into Saturday. At the surface, WAA will increase overnight into Saturday as winds strengthen and shift southerly in response to the building high pressure to the east and deepening low to the west. This influx of warm air will keep lows mainly in the 40s overnight. A bit of cloud cover moves in overnight with a very slight chance of some sprinkles before skies clear out Saturday morning. Gusty southerly winds continue to strengthen with a tightening surface pressure gradient during the day Saturday. Most areas could see gusts up to 30mph, while areas prone to downsloping could see some gusts upwards of 40mph. Highs are expected to reach the low 80s (15-30 degrees higher than normal) in the western U.P. while the east will remain in the mid-70s due to the moderation of temperature as winds move across the relatively cool surface of Lake Michigan. Afternoon RHs are expected to fall to around 40% in the western U.P., remaining in the 50s for the east. Under these conditions, elevated to critical weather conditions are expected for the western U.P. Saturday.

Warm temperatures, gusty winds, and low RHs continue into Sunday. Highs will return to the low 80s in the west (mid 70s in the east) Sunday afternoon, while RHs fall into mid-30s (mid-40s in the east). Wind speeds are expected to reduce to 15-25mph heading into Sunday afternoon as the surface pressure gradient from Saturday weakens. Clear skies are expected to continue until Sunday evening. Heading into the work week, the ridging pattern aloft flattens out somewhat under the influence of troughing over northern Ontario. At the surface, troughing associated with a frontal system is expected to move across the area. This system will bring chances for precipitation Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Showers are expected to be widespread but scattered with low accumulations, with a ~50% chance for precipitation totals to exceed 0.05 inches by Tuesday morning at any given location. Higher accumulations are possible along the lakeshore as northerly winds behind the cold front allow for the possibility of lake enhancement. The passage of the remnants of Isaias through the eastern CONUS this weekend introduces some uncertainty in the models for next week. Currently, upper-level ridging is expected to return for the midweek, bringing back seasonable temperatures and light winds before a troughing pattern looks to move through Thursday evening.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. The main aviation concern will be low-level wind shear tonight into Saturday morning, and gusty winds at the surface Saturday late morning into the afternoon. As high pressure shifts east tonight, a strong southerly low-level jet will spread across the UP. With a strong inversion developing, there is a moderate to high chance for low-level wind shear conditions at the TAF sites tonight. As diurnal mixing increases late Saturday morning, the LLWS conditions will end, but southerly wind gusts of 20-30 kt will develop and persist through the day on Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Lake Superior: Currently, winds are out of the east for the western arm at 10-15kts while winds shift easterly over the eastern portion of the lake at ~5kts. Wind speeds will increase up to 25kts this afternoon over the western arm, and will increase to 25-30kts and spread to the eastern lake overnight as they shift southeasterly. Wave heights will rise to 1-4ft in the western arm and 3-7ft (highest offshore) in the east during this time. Winds shift southerly and continue to increase up to 33kts in the east through Saturday afternoon. Isolated gales are possible (40% chance) during this time, especially at elevated measuring sites. Over the western arm, winds will be southeasterly at 15-20kts. Waves will be 4-8ft (highest offshore) in the east and 2-3ft in the west. Sunday afternoon, winds lighten to 10kts and shift southwesterly over the western arm while winds remain at 15-20kts and southerly in the east. Waves will be 1-3ft. Monday morning, winds shift northeasterly and increase up to 30kts with wave heights building to 5-7ft in the afternoon. Tuesday, wind speeds decrease to 15-20kts but remain northerly with wave heights from 3 to 5ft.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Currently, winds are easterly to northeasterly at ~5kts with calm lake conditions. Tonight, southeasterly winds pick up speed to 10-20kts with wave heights up to 2ft. Saturday, winds shift southerly, reaching around 20kts over the bay and 30kts offshore. Waves will be 2-3ft in the bay, 4-8ft in open water. Southerly winds decrease to 20-25kts into Sunday morning. Wave heights remain at 2-3ft for the bay, 5-6ft in the open water. Winds continue to decrease through Sunday night, reaching 10-15kts by Monday morning with 0-2ft waves. Monday afternoon, winds shift to northerly and increase up to 20kts as a cold front moves through the area. Tuesday, northerly winds continue at ~15kts with 2-3ft waves.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Ontonagon and Gogebic Counties for critical fire weather conditions Saturday and Sunday. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the U.P. this weekend. Highs will reach the 80s in the interior west (mid-70s east) by the afternoon for both Saturday and Sunday. RHs will be in the low 40s to mid-30s (50s east) during this time. Recovery will be moderate to poor (RHs up to 55-60%) overnight. Minimal recent rainfall and ongoing drought conditions make ignition more likely. Southerly winds at 10-15mph are expected to gust up to 35mph in the west for Saturday, reducing to 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph Sunday. Any fire that develops could catch and spread quickly. Members of the public should obey local burn restrictions and report any wildfires by calling 911. Fire partners should continue to monitor forecast updates.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Red Flag Warning from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Saturday to 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ Sunday for MIZ002-009.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.