textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers will develop tonight in the northwest winds snowbelts, especially in the eastern U.P. The combination of light snow and winds gusting to 35 mph near Lake Superior will result in some areas of blowing snow and visiblity as low as one mile, particulary around the Grand Marais area.

- Well above normal temperatures settle over the region late this week and coming weekend, with highs above freezing each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

This afternoon an upper level low was over Ontario with subtle shortwave ridging upstream ahead of deeper troughing along the west coast. A cold front pushed through the U.P early this morning with northwest winds developing behind the front. The air behind the front wasn't particularly cold, mainly temperatures in the 20s in the west and the low to mid 30s in the east. Spotty freezing drizzle this morning had transitioned to light snow showers and flurries as low to mid level moisture increased along with increasing instability. Lake effect snow showers were also starting to develop but remained rather weak and limited in coverage with 850mb temps borderline for lake induced instability along with low inversion heights. Wind were gusty, particularly near Lake Superior and in the Keweenaw where westerly winds were gusting 30 to 35 mph. Lack of new snow and relatively warm temperatures were helping curb the blowing snow threat.

Tonight through Wednesday night colder air will filter in with lows in the teens tonight followed by temperatures closer to normal, highs in the low to mid 20s Wednesday and lows in the single digits Wednesday night. Lake effect snow showers are expected through the period in the northwest wind snowbelts, with the best convergence over the eastern part of the lake. This will bring some light to occasionally moderate bands into eastern Alger and northern Luce county. There are some blowing snow concerns around the Grand Marais area tonight with winds gusts to 35 mph but snowfall rates remain fairly light, less than 0.25" per hour. Somewhat higher snow rates are expected tomorrow morning but winds should begin to weaken with gusts of 25-30 mph. Blowing snow probabilities for visibility of less than a half mile are in the 25-35% range. Will hold off on an advisory at this time but those traveling in the eastern U.P, near Lake Superior, should be prepared for falling snow and areas of reduced visibility to one mile. Snow tapers off on Wednesday night with total accumulations of 2 to 6 inches over eastern Alger and northern Luce counties. Elsewhere snow will be much lighter in the northwest wind snowbelts with an inch or two of accumulation.

Winds turn to the southwest on Thursday with warmer air starting to surge north into the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid 30s over the southern half of the U.P with upper 20s elsewhere. Friday through Sunday are still on track for highs 10 to 15 degrees above average, reaching into the upper 30s to low 40s. Wouldn't be surprised to see temperatures reach higher into the mid 40s as suggested by the ECMWF. Sunny skies with the slightly higher sun angle can tend to result in overachieving afternoon temperatures this time of year. The higher end of the distribution from the NBM (90th percentile) is closer to the operational ECMWF but opted not to deviate from the NBM at this time. There are still subtle differences between guidance, with the GFS in particular showing a weak cold front dropping across the lake Friday night and maintaining temperatures in the low to mid 30s over the weekend for the northern half of the U.P. Overnight lows will also be running well above average but should still fall below freezing.

Quite a bit of uncertainty next week as a low is progged to pull out of the Rockies and into the Great Lakes region. There is a large spread in the range of solutions, which include the precip staying south of the area to rain, freezing rain, and/or snow.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Chilly NW flow is keeping the terminals under a blanket of primarily MVFR cloud cover, though SAW has lifted to low-end VFR and is expected to hover there for the next few hours. Meanwhile, passing snow showers are dropping visibility to MVFR at times as well, mainly at CMX for the next few hours. Elsewhere, confidence in visibility impacts are too low to include in the forecast. Expect MVFR ceilings to linger for most of the day Wednesday before a slow improvement to VFR through the afternoon and evening. NW Winds continue to gust to near 20-25kts mainly at CMX before winds finally fall back below 20kts Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 311 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Northwest gales to 35kt are expected to continue over the eastern half of the lake tonight along with freezing spray, through heavy freezing spray is not anticipated. Over the west winds will be in the 25-30kt range. Northwest winds subside to 25-30kt on Wednesday over the east and below 20kt in the west. Winds turn southerly on Thursday and remain less than 20 kt through Thursday night. Winds turn to the west on Friday, increasing to 20-25kt over the central and east. Winds turn back to the south Saturday less than 20 kt, continuing into Sunday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for LSZ245>251- 265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.