textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for precipitation persist throughout the week into early next week. Thunderstorms will be possible at times, but severe weather is not expected.

- Temperatures remain below normal this week into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

As a shortwave low over northeast Wisconsin and the U.P. this afternoon lifts into Ontario by tonight, expect the wrap-around moisture to continue bringing mostly light rain showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder to the area, mainly in the central and east where rain chances are the greatest. While there may be a couple hundred J of CAPE that causes a couple of thunderstorms to develop by the afternoon hours across the area, given the cloud cover across most of the area this morning and being located to the north of the shortwave (in the wrap-around moisture section), limited thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening to 30% or less; no severe weather is expected as the ingredients for it are just not there (no wind shear with height, very little CAPE, etc.). With some weak CAA moving in from the west behind the shortwave though, expect highs in the western U.P. to be relegated to the 60s, whereas the central and east could sneak into the lower 70s.

Expect below normal temperatures and on-and-off rain chances to continue through the rest of this week as an upper-level troughing pattern remains overhead via a low near Hudson Bay. During the rest of the week, expect highs to generally be in the 60s with a few spots getting into the lower 70s. Still keeping an eye on a Clipper low that is starting to move into Saskatchewan this afternoon. However, with the track of the low moving ever-so-slightly further south in comparison yesterday, thinking rainfall amounts will be even less than previously predicted; the latest LREF brings a 60 to 75% chance for over a quarter inch of rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday night along the Wisconsin border, whereas the chances in the Keweenaw are around 10% for the same time period. Expect the daily shortwave action to continue until a shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS early next week, breaking down the upper- level troughing pattern overhead. This may give us a day or two of a break in the daily to near-daily precipitation; however, another Clipper low dropping down could bring rain chances back over us by the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 117 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing this afternoon as a weak low pressure system skirts south of the UP. Convergence and daytime heating have allowed the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the west half. Latest satellite analysis indicates a line of clearing from IWD to CMX as convective activity remains more interior, although some agitated cu noted along the Keweenaw Spine may point towards brief shower/storm activity this afternoon. Despite this clearing, have opted to include prob30s for -tsra through ~21z at IWD/CMX. Convective activity slowly creeps eastward this afternoon, likely reaching SAW by the late afternoon or early evening. Tossing a prob30 at SAW for -tsra through 00z. Once precipitation clears east of SAW this evening, no additional precip is expected tonight and VFR cigs will be the rule. Another round of showers is expected to lift into the far western UP tomorrow morning/afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1235 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue across Lake Superior the rest of today and tonight as a shortwave low lifts from northeast Wisconsin and the U.P. into Ontario. However, a Clipper low over western Saskatchewan this afternoon digs into the Northern Plains tonight before heading into southern Lower Michigan Wednesday night. As this occurs, expect to see winds from the northeast pick up to 20 to 25 knots over the western arm of the lake Wednesday, before dying back down to 20 knots or less again Wednesday evening. While winds behind the low do look to increase from the northwest still over the eastern half Lake Superior on Thursday, the chances for gales have dropped off as only wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are now expected. The gusty northwest winds look to continue through Thursday night before falling to 20 knots or less again by Friday evening. Expect the calmer winds to continue through the weekend as upper-level troughing keeps bringing weak shortwaves in until early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.