textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue this weekend into early next week.

- Potential for patchy fog and freezing fog tonight, especially for the eastern half.

- Confidence is growing that an impactful winter storm will move into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night through at least Wednesday. Potential impacts include heavy snow, strong winds, and possible mixed precipitation, depending on the track and strength of the system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Low amplitude ridging continues over the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes, indicative of a seasonably mild airmass for much of the central portion of the CONUS. 850 mb temps hovering around 0C into early next week average around +1 to +2 sigma. Lower in the atmosphere, high pressure shifts east of the local area today, with light south to southwest flow. There will be a fairly big difference between areas in the western and eastern UP today with the latter seeing low clouds and wind trajectories off cool Lake Michigan, keeping temps from being too abnormal (though still above normal in the 30s). Over the west half, another day of temps exceeding most model guidance is expected, with highs ranging from 40-50F.

Tonight, the concern for fog and freezing fog returns, although CAMs significantly overdid low-level moisture in most areas last night. Reason to believe the fog threat is a bit higher tonight over the east half given the increased low-level RH during the day today. Lows mainly in the 20s. A shortwave will pass late tonight, but with no precipitation expected due to dry low/mid levels. Wind shift behind this shortwave will result in a slightly cooler day Sunday for most areas, with highs ranging from the mid-30s north half to mid-40s south half.

Sunday night into early Monday, another quick-moving wave embedded in the zonal flow tracks across the local area. Dry air will limit any precipitation to light amounts/brief duration. There are some nonzero freezing rain probs, but took these out of the forecast given that the wetbulb profile is below zero, so any more substantial brief burst of precip is more likely to be rain or snow.

Significant pattern change still on track for the middle of next week as deep troughing invades the western CONUS and a very strong southwesterly jet develops from the Desert Southwest to the Upper Midwest. Lead wave ejecting across the Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday will be the main focus here. Ensemble systems have come into better agreement since 24 hours ago for a wintry system to impact the local area. Strong and fairly long-duration overrunning is forecast over the local area as this wave goes very negatively tilted, shears out, and stalls (in the multi-model mean). However, crucial differences still exist that will determine precipitation type and amount. Two ends of the spectrum here are the southern EPS- AIFS and the northern CMCE. The former puts the greatest snow probs over roughly the southern half of the UP, while the latter is far enough north to result in the snow probs mainly north of the UP (plain rain scenario). EPS has trended toward the GEFS in a middle solution, resulting in accumulating snow for most of the UP, and possibly some mixed precip over southern areas. Most likely timeframe for impacts is late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR prevails at all terminals through the afternoon and evening with sunny skies and just some stray upper level cloud cover streaming through. Warming temperatures will again result in increased near surface moisture that will be trapped beneath an overnight inversion tonight. This will support additional fog/mist developing overnight ahead of a weak surface trough. Expect a deterioration to MVFR at IWD and IFR at CMX and SAW, with a slow improvement to MVFR late Sunday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 155 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Winds remain below 20 kts through the weekend into early next week. Forecast models continue to show potential for a significant system to bring strong easterly winds Tuesday night into Wednesday, with up to 75% chance for gales and 30% chance for storms. Winds are likely to be elevated around 30 kt behind this system for the end of next week as colder air returns.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.