textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers in the east diminish this evening.

- A warmer pattern with daily high temperatures in the 30s and 40s is expected this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 456 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies overhead Lake Superior and the UP save for western stratus scattering out and lake effect in the east. A stubborn convergence band is finally showing signs of eastward progression early this afternoon having lingered over Munising for much longer than expected. As light westerly flow becomes more established across the east half of the lake, expecting this convergence band to continue eastward, grazing the shoreline as it makes its way north of Whitefish Bay. This convergence band has struggled to penetrate inland this morning given very stable conditions on land, however, with enough southward momentum and daytime heating, cant rule out a few snow showers along and north of M-28 this afternoon. Otherwise, with high pressure solidly atop the area tonight, look for efficient radiational cooling to once again drop interior temps near or slightly below zero, a few degree warmer by the lakes.

A warmer and drier pattern sets up this week with mostly zonal flow aloft and a few shortwaves skirting both north and south of the UP. The first moves through northern Ontario tomorrow morning. Mixing into a 30-40 kt LLJ will result in breezy southwest winds and a markedly warmer day with highs reaching near 40 west/central and 30s east. Troughing lifts through the Ohio Valley/Lower Lakes with precip staying south of the UP Tuesday into Wednesday. Come the late week and into the coming weekend, global guidance suggests a few shortwaves lifting out of the Rockies, reaching far enough north to return precipitation chances to the area likely in the form of rain. At this time range, there is still disagreement in the overall strength and placement of important features that will determine rainfall (or mixed precip) amounts. With continued snowmelt from this coming warm stretch, ponding on roads and around homes may become a larger issue should we receive rain on top of the healthy snowpack.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR prevails through the forecast period with high pressure analyzed over the Great Lakes tonight. A disturbance passing well to the north across Ontario on Monday will bring increasing southerly winds gusting to 20-25 kt to the terminals after 12Z Monday, as well as an increase in mid/upper level cloud cover. Winds fall back below 20kts Monday evening.

MARINE

Issued at 456 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Light westerly winds veer southwest tonight, increasing to 20-30 kts lakewide by Monday morning ahead of a surface trough with a 60-80% chance for gales to at least 35 kts over the north central and eastern portions of the lake. Upgraded the ongoing Gale Watch to a Gale Warning. Winds fall below 20 kts from west to east Monday night, becoming easterly for Tuesday. Expect southerly 5-15 kt winds on Wednesday and 15-25 kts out of the east on Thursday. The next shot for lakewide winds between 20-30 kts holds off until Friday and Saturday; strongest winds over the east half of the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ263-264-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.