textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Heaviest expected snow tonight has shifted farther south into Wisconsin. Snow amounts closer to 1 to 3" now expected near the WI border. Higher amounts remain possible over the southern half of Menominee County (50% chance for greater than 4" of snow). The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for Gogebic, Iron, and Dickinson Counties, but remains in effect for Menominee County through 6 AM CST Wednesday.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect for much of Lake Superior late tonight into Wednesday.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through this week and beyond. Low temperatures in the single digits to near zero are possible late this week into this upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Upper Michigan is in a lull between systems this afternoon, with cloudy skies and highs in the 20s across most of the area as of 3 PM Tuesday. More active weather returns to the region tonight as GOES water vapor imagery reveals the next clipper system to impact the area currently upstream over the Dakotas, with a shortwave trough dropping out of the Canadian Prairies and an attendant surface low deepening to 989 mb near Fargo. Models have mostly converged on the track of the low through Wednesday morning as the bulk of 12z Hi-Res guidance has finally latched on to the more southerly solution advertised by global models in recent days. As a result, heaviest snow amounts have shifted farther south across Wisconsin tonight with the latest HREF probs now keeping any 1" per hour snowfall rates well south of the state line. Have thus revised snow amounts downward to 1-3" along the border and removed Gogebic, Iron, and Dickinson Counties from the Winter Weather Advisory, with most locations looking more likely to end up on the lower end of that range per the latest forecast trends. Still could see some higher amounts across Menominee County where NBM and HREF guidance still depict around a 50% chance to see 4" or greater over the southern half of the county. Have therefore left the Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Menominee County only through early Wednesday morning.

Lake effect snow showers will ramp up again across the NW wind snow belts tonight into Wednesday morning on the backside of the system, but amounts will mostly be fairly minimal given rather dry air in the mid levels. Could see another 2-4" aided by upslope flow from Negaunee/Ishpeming into the Michigamme Highlands, but lower elevations closer to the lake will probably see closer to 1-2" through Wednesday morning. We will then settle into a fairly benign pattern through the back half of the work week, with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens and light lake effect snow lingering over the east into Friday.

Models continue to hint at another clipper traversing the area later on Friday, but this system does not look particularly impactful in terms of snow amounts at this time. Another shot of arctic air will move into the area this weekend in the wake of this system as 850 mb temps plummet to -20 to -25C by early Sunday. This will correspond to daytime highs in the single digits to low teens and overnight lows flirting with below zero readings for Saturday and Sunday. Another clipper may then approach the region early next week, but models continue to differ greatly with respect to strength, progression, and timing of this feature.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 647 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

MVFR will be the predominant flight category into the night at all TAF sites. A clipper system progged for tonight will remain south with not much impact on TAF sites. However, expect deterioration to MVFR/IFR after Wed 10Z as lake effect snow showers ramp up across the northwest wind snowbelts. In addition, northerly winds will become impactful in the wake of the aforementioned clipper system with gusts up to 25 kts at IWD/SAW and up to 30 kts at CMX.

MARINE

Issued at 343 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Lighter northwest winds of 10-15 kt across the waters this evening will quickly give way to stronger northeast breezes overnight as a strong surface low passes to the south over Lake Michigan. Gales remain in effect for much of the lake from late tonight through Wednesday morning, with waves building to 10+ feet near the Keweenaw and over the eastern half. Gales will linger over the eastern half of the lake into Wednesday evening as winds shift northwesterly in the wake of the system passing to the south. Then expect a period of lighter west-northwest winds below 20 kt as we settle into a quieter through the latter half of the work week. Another system will bring renewed gale chances during the weekend, with freezing spray concerns also increasing as a frigid air mass moves over Lake Superior.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MIZ012.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ242>244- 263-264.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ245-247- 248-265.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ249-250- 266.

Lake Michigan... None.