textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong low pressure will track through the Great Lakes today, continuing to bring hazardous winter weather to the U.P.; Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories are in effect.

- Heavy wet snow will make for difficult travel today. The heaviest snowfall rates will be over the north central and Keweenaw.

- Freezing rain will result in slippery surfaces in the central and eastern U.P. A tenth to three tenths of an inch of ice accumulation is expected, with the highest amounts expected in the south central and eastern U.P.

- Occasionally moderate lake enhanced snow showers continue across the area tonight into Saturday. Winter Weather Advisories could be issued behind the Winter Weather Headlines today.

- More normal winter-time temperatures and lake enhanced to lake effect snow showers return this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

As an upper level low near Thunder Bay this morning continues retrograding back towards Lake Winnipeg today, a currently strengthening sfc low lifting from the Mid-Mississippi Valley moves over Lake Michigan into northern Lower Michigan later this morning. As this occurs, radar imagery is showing returns developing over the central U.P. and moving in from the south into our area as the TROWAL of the sfc low is beginning to form over us. Looking at the latest 00z guidance, confidence on the placement of the TROWAL and the precipitation types across the area has gotten much higher in comparison to yesterday morning. Overall, expect generally rain/freezing rain over the south central and east early this morning before rising temperatures at the sfc (and cooling aloft) transitions these areas to just rain or snowfall for the rest of the day. As for the western U.P., only snowfall is expected. The area where the greatest uncertainty in precipitation type remains is from Dickinson County/northern Menominee County all the way into southern Marquette County to just east of the city of Marquette; in these spots, we may see multiple transitions between freezing rain, sleet, and wet snowfall depending on the dynamic cooling aloft via the precipitation rates. Eventually, though, expect the progressive transition to all snowfall from west to east late this morning through the rest of the day as the low begins to weaken as it heads towards Lake Huron, allowing colder air from Canada to enter into the U.P. from the north-northwest. With highs looking to range from around 30F in the west to the mid-30s in the south central and east, expect some ice and snowmelt throughout the afternoon hours over the south central and east, even as cooling temperatures aloft will progressively transition the precipitation type to all snowfall from west to east with time today.

Overall, snowfall amounts have significantly increased over the central U.P. with the 00z guidance, with amounts up to a foot between now and Saturday morning not out of the picture for the higher terrain in Baraga and Marquette counties. In addition, 6+ inches of wet snowfall are now expected for Iron and western Dickinson counties the rest of this morning through this afternoon as the TROWAL of the low sets up shop over the interior west and north central today. Looking over to the Keweenaw, some lake enhancement and upslope support is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches to the area today. In Ontonagon, Gogebic, and southern Houghton counties, around 2 to 6 inches are expected today, with the highest amounts along and east of US-45; with around 5 inches of snowfall expected near the Watersmeet area and some moderate lake enhanced/upslope snow showers being seen in the Ironwood area this afternoon, decided to hoist up a Winter Weather Advisory for Gogebic County. As for ice amounts, with marginally freezing temperatures being seen across the area this morning, around one to two tenths of an inch of ice are expected over the east before warming temperatures after dawn this morning bring melting; thus, expect very slick roadways for the morning commute over the east this morning (take it slow!). Ice accumulations have also increased for the central U.P. as well from K.I. Sawyer south to just north of the city of Menominee (as well as just east of the city of Marquette); in this area, we could see one to three tenths of an inch of ice, with the greatest ice totals expected in central to northern Menominee County; not only slick roads will be seen, but expect some isolated power outages as well. The one saving grace though is that the easterly winds are not expected to be all that strong, mainly only gusting to up to around 25 mph at times.

While the main portion of the event is expected to be finished by the mid to late afternoon hours today, remnant troughing hanging across the area could continue moderate lake enhanced snow showers across the Keweenaw and central U.P. this evening into Saturday; would not be surprised if we see Winter Weather Advisory headlines extended for the Keweenaw and north central (and potentially even south central) U.P. for tonight into Saturday for these light to moderate lake enhanced snow showers.

As the troughing deteriorates over the region the rest of this weekend into early next week, expect the lake enhanced showers to become pure lake effect over the northwest to north wind snow belts. With the return of the lake enhanced and lake effect snow showers, expect temperatures to become 'more normal' for late winter, with highs generally in the 20s save for Monday when only teens are expected over most of the area. As warmer temperatures move back in by the middle of next week, a Clipper low is looking to potentially bring impactful snowfall back into the area. However, confidence in the track of this system remains low at this time, so there still remains high uncertainty on what all we will see with this, if we see anything at all.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 657 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Widespread IFR and LIFR conditions have developed overnight as the next round of winter precipitation spreads into the U.P. ahead of a surface low tracking into northern Lower Michigan today. Expect an initial mix of -SN and -FZRA at KSAW this morning, while precip type at KIWD/KCMX will likely be all snow. KSAW will then transition to all snow as the morning progresses. Precip rates will be heavy at times, especially at KSAW and KCMX, before starting to wane in intensity after 00z Sat. Expect IFR/LIFR through the period at KSAW/KCMX, with KIWD eventually improving to MVFR this evening as precipitation narrows in focus over the central/eastern U.P.

MARINE

Issued at 218 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

East to northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots over the eastern half of the lake this morning increase to 20 to 30 knots by around noon EST as the winds slowly back northwards with time thanks to a low lifting through northern Lower Michigan today. As winds over the west and central back to the northwest this evening, we could see a stream of stronger northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots along the Marquette County shoreline tonight as winds slowly die down across the lake tonight. Expect the winds to dwindle to 20 knots or less by Saturday and to remain that way until early Sunday morning, when a shortwave incoming from Manitoba increases winds above 20 knots from the north, potentially even increasing up to gales of 34 knots or greater by Sunday night (30% chance, highest over the east). While ridging moving in from the west looks to decrease the winds over the lake to 20 knots or less by late Monday, a Clipper low moving into the area around next Tuesday looks to bring southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots ahead of it with a 25% chance for marginal gales over the eastern lake; behind it, expect the winds to turn west to northwesterly Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a 20% chance for gales up to 34 knots (highest over the eastern lake).

Expect freezing spray across the lake today through tonight as the low moves into the Great Lakes today. Some heavy freezing spray is possible Sunday through Monday as Arctic air and a shortwave from Canada moves through Lake Superior.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for MIZ001-003>005-010-011.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for MIZ002-006-007-009-013-014-084-085.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MIZ012.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.