textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures through tonight, between 15 and 25 degrees above seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected through Thursday with additional rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.75 inches, higher amounts up to 1 inch in the far west and Keweenaw.

- Lake enhanced to lake effect rain showers over the north to northeast wind precipitation belts Thursday into Friday. Temperatures closer to normal return late this week.

- A Gale Warning is now in effect for northerly gales of 35 to 45 knots across most of Lake Superior Thursday. Strongest winds over the central waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

A closed low centered over southern MN is spinning relatively stationary this morning with another closed low forming over the Great Basin. Beneath the midwest closed low is a ~999 mb sfc low lifting north along the MN/WI state line. Temps in the mid 50s to around 60 will make minimal change this morning as low level WAA persists. Ample moisture is present noted by PWATs between 1.3 and 1.6 inches, above the NAEFS 99.5th percentile across the UP and the max of all hours in the east and Keweenaw! This alongside an upper level 100 kt jet streak, embedded shortwave lifting north, and isentropic upglide support scattered shower coverage this morning and early afternoon. Additional accumulations are going to range from 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Drier air pressing in from the southwest today will quickly diminish shower coverage this afternoon. Today and tonight bring the last period of well above normal temps (15 to 25 F above average) during the forecast with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

As the aforementioned closed low continues its eastward track Thursday, it merges into troughing over Ontario before eventually splitting. This will allow the associated surface low to produce lake enhanced and eventually pure lake effect precipitation over the NNE wind belts. Ptype will initially be all rain; however, as CAA strengthens late Thursday, look for a transition to snow across the western half of the U.P. through Friday morning. But, no snow accumulations are expected. In addition, pressure rises/CAA will make Thursday a particularly windy day with widespread northerly wind gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range.

Further out, drier weather will return for the weekend as high pressure strengthens over the area, and once again there will be a slight warmup into the 50s from Sunday through the end of the extended period. This will be after a brief dip in high temperatures into the upper 30s/low 40s on Friday. Overnight lows, however, will bottom out in the 20s under significant nighttime radiational cooling.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Flight restrictions continue through the duration of the 6Z TAF period as a low pressure lifts north along the WI/MI state line. Ample low level moisture and periods of showers, particularly between 12 and 18Z, yield IFR to LIFR conditions, lowest at CMX and SAW where there is a 20-50% chance of VLIFR. East to southeast winds become south today between 5 to 10 kts, then a front pressing in from the west shifts winds northwest late in the period at IWD and CMX.

MARINE

Issued at 426 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Lake Superior: NE gusts of 25 to 30 kts continue across the western arm of the lake this morning as a surface low enters the western UP. A brief lull in gusts will occur today before picking back up tonight through Thursday. Pressure rises and cold air advection will increase N to NNE winds in the western and central portions of the lake between 35-45 kts Thursday morning as surface troughing departs east, eventually spreading to the eastern lake through Thursday afternoon, building significant wave heights upwards of 10 ft. Gale Warnings have been hoisted for much of Lake Superior through Thursday. Gales fall off from west to east late Thursday through Friday morning.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Breezy southerlies between 20-25 kts will be the rule through Thursday. A cold front quickly increases NW winds between 25-35 kts late Thursday, remaining elevated 25-30 kts through Friday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for LSZ162-240>246-263>267.

Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for LSZ242>244-263-264.

Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for LSZ245>248-265-266.

Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for LSZ249>251-267.

Lake Michigan... None.