textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Generally light snow showers expected today. Up to around a fluffy inch expected, with a little less (more) seen outside (inside) of the northwest wind snow belts.

- Snowfall could become drop visibilities down to 1/2 mile in the heaviest snow showers today. Road could be slick, especially on untreated roadways near freezing.

- Daytime highs rebound well above freezing this weekend into next week, supporting gradual snowmelt across the U.P.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Winter-like temperatures continue across the region today as cold air advection slowly continues to pump into the U.P. from the north. As this occurs, a weak Clipper shortwave impulse traveling through the region today allows light snowfall to develop over mainly the northwest wind snow belts. However, CAMs show that some sporadic snow showers will be possible outside of the northwest wind snow belts as well; thus, we could see up to a fluffy inch or so in the northwest wind snow belts after sunrise today, with the areas outside the northwest wind snow belts generally seeing less (think a dusting). With the low level lapse rates looking fairly steep, snowfall could become moderate (1/2 mile visibilities and accumulating at 1/2 an inch per hour) at times. Thus, the snow showers may create some minor travel headaches across the area today; if you are caught in one of these heavier snow showers, just be sure to take it a little slower on the roads, especially on the untreated roadways which could become slick. With 850mb temperatures dropping down into the mid negative teens C, highs today are going to struggle to get above freezing save for potentially the south central; given the potentially moderate snowfall at times in some of the heavier snow showers, there is a non-zero chance for some melting and refreezing of snow crystals on the untreated roadways, especially in the warmer areas like the south central. Thus, I must reiterate: take it slower on any untreated roadways today. While lake enhancement is possible over the northwest wind snow belts today, with high pressure building in from the west later today through tonight, expect the snow showers to become lake effect and mainly restricted to just the east before ending Saturday morning. As another Clipper shortwave impulse flies through the Northern Plains tonight through Saturday, we may see another round of light snow showers cross the U.P. Saturday afternoon. However, with model soundings showing drier air in the lower levels, snow will have difficulty reaching the sfc. In addition, with warm air advection occurring throughout the day, expect any snow that reaches to sfc to melt, particularly over the southern and western areas where high temperatures could get into the lower 40s before sunset. Overall, expect accumulations to be no more than a dusting at most Saturday afternoon.

Moving into next week, expect generally normal to above normal g temperatures across the area to start out the week as high pressure ridging builds aloft over the western U.S. and pushes into the Central U.S.. We can thus expect temperatures to soar into the 40s and 50s during the daylight hours for the first half of next week, with some spots in the south and west potentially getting into the 60s on some of the sunnier days. The warm temperatures will lead to snowmelt across the area, which will increase our risk for river flooding across Upper Michigan. As a reminder, river flooding and the severity of it is dependent on many factors, but mainly the rate of snowpack melting and any additional precipitation received on top of the melting snowpack. While we look to remain dry Sunday and Monday, a shortwave low traversing over the Rockies of British Columbia early next week races over the Canadian Prairies and/or Northern Plains while phasing with a Colorado shortwave low before moving over the U.P. and/or northern Lake Michigan on Tuesday. With the U.P. being under the warm sector of the low, generally rainfall via convection is expected as some CAPE values up to 500 J/kg and some modest shear above the warm nose at around 5 kft could lead to some elevated rain showers and thunderstorms. However, even though chances for wintry precipitation continue to decrease (only 10% or less chance for freezing rain/ice accumulations over a tenth of an inch in a 24-hour time period with this event), there may be some freezing rain from time-to-time during the overnight hours; in addition, there may be a changeover to snowfall as the event continues and colder air from behind the low enters into the area from the northwest. Overall, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this event, particularly with precipitation amounts. However, confidence is continuing to increase on the generally track of the low and the general precipitation type (i.e. rain).

Expect a high pressure quickly building in from the west to end any lake effect snowfall (if it does occur) by the middle of next week. Looking to the latter portion of next week, model spread remains high and predictability low. That being said, there is some agreement amongst the medium range guidance that temperatures will be around-to-slightly below normal, as is hinted by the output provided by the deterministic NBM.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The -SHSN so far associated with a weak disturbance moving over the UP today have been efficient at reducing visibility as low as LIFR at CMX and IWD though have been negligible so far at SAW. For the rest of the afternoon, these -SHSN will continue to provide temporary restrictions to IFR, though chances of LIFR are low but not nothing (around 20%). Eventually, high pressure will bring an end to the -SHSN and provide VFR conditions to all sites overnight through Saturday. Occasionally gusty winds out of the west to northwest will slacken somewhat as they back more westerly to southwesterly Saturday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less this morning increase to northwest winds of 25 to 30 knots across the lake by this afternoon as a weak Clipper impulse passes through the region today. As this occurs, expect freezing spray to return to Lake Superior late this afternoon, continuing through the overnight and Saturday morning hours before ending. While the winds die down a little late tonight into Saturday morning, another quick-moving Clipper impulse looks to move through the region later in the day Saturday. This impulse is looking to bring south to southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots mainly over the eastern half of the lake late Saturday before high pressure ridging building in from the west drops the winds down to 20 knots or less again Saturday night.

Light winds of 20 knots or less look to continue Sunday through Monday as high pressure ridging to weak zonal flow passes overhead. Eventually, a low moving over the Rockies in British Columbia passes over the Canadian Prairies and/or Northern Plains early next week. As it does so, it also phases with a low from the Colorado area before arriving over the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. Thus, expect the winds to begin increasing from the east Monday night over Lake Superior; some gales up to 35 knots cannot be ruled out by Tuesday morning as the phasing low approaches the area (up to around a 20% chance according to the NBM). As the low passes by, expect the winds to back with time, becoming generally northerly by Wednesday morning.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.