textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread light snow is expected Sunday night into Monday morning, followed by lake effect snow downwind of Lake Superior.

- Confidence is growing that a widespread light to moderate snow and stronger wind event will move through Upper Michigan Thursday night into Friday.

- Near normal temperatures favored this weekend and for the coming week for most of Upper Michigan.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Guidance continues to suggest the pattern across Canada and CONUS for the this forecast period will include large scale ridging building up the west coast and Rocky Mountains, with broad troughing fluctuating across eastern CONUS. This pattern favors average northwest flow aloft into the Great Lakes, allowing surface troughs and clippers a road to drive through the region along. With each, a period of warm air advection preceding the system and post system lake effect snow are expected. This progression has been consistent in the modeled guidance, with the first such being now through Monday, where 850mb temps eventually warm to near -6C, a frontal passage, and post system lake effect. With today's increasing warm and dry air along side the surface ridging over the region, we've been able to witness diminishing lake effect across the region and mostly clear skies for many today. Lingering cloud cover does persist over the Keweenaw, parts of the interior west, and central Upper Michigan though. Daytime temperatures have warmed into the upper teens and 20s so far. As of this publishing, KESC had hit 27 degrees. Additional warming, perhaps a degree or two, is mostly expected over the next hour or two while cloud cover continues to erode. The dry air will allow for effective radiational cooling tonight, bringing most locations into the single digits above zero or just below. Coldest spots will be in the east, where the driest air will send temperatures into to -10 to -5F.

Increasing high clouds are expected through the day Sunday as the surface trough/front presses eastward into Upper Michigan. Between yesterday and today, CAMS have have trended toward more slightly mid- level dry air preceding the better forcing, which will impact QPF and snow amounts. Most now suggest most locations outside of the high terrain snowbelts downwind of Lake Superior struggling to hit an inch of snow between late Sunday and Monday morning. Outside of the snowbelts, the most likely areas to eclipse an inch will be the east in Schoolcraft, eastern Alger, and Luce where a mesoscale convergent band may develop by Sunday afternoon off Lake Michigan. Trough and lake effect amounts look to generally fall within the 1 to 3 inch range, but isolated higher totals can't be ruled out in the Porkies and along the Spine. Lake effect behind the trough/front looks to diminish through the day Monday, wrapping up overnight into Tuesday morning in the east.

A surface high drops into the Northern Plains Tuesday. Positional and timing differences may impact when lake effect downwind of Lake Superior ends, but a majority of guidance suggests it diminishing by Tuesday morning. A weak shortwave looks to move quickly through the region Wednesday evening, followed by a more organized clipper low moving through Ontario Thursday and Friday. Much like the first trough, this will include a warming mid-level airmass, although positional differences in where the low tracks translates to uncertainty in how warm it will reach. Should the low take a more northern track, which is suggested by only a handful of GEFS and EC ensemble members at the moment, it may warm enough to break freezing Thursday. However, the most likely current scenario brings the low through Upper Michigan or Lake Superior, bringing with it widespread light to moderate snow and southerly becoming northwesterly stronger winds. Total snow amounts are uncertain given the uncertainty in the track, but the most recent GEFS, GEPS, and EC ensemble system suggest only a 10-50% chance of eclipsing 3 inches in 24 hours. There's higher confidence in winds given continued run to run projections of the pressure gradient and post system airmass. These generally fall between 25 and 35 mph in the strongest period of northerly winds, with the Lake Superior lakeshores and areas north of Houghton in the Keweenaw potentially breaking 40 mph (25% chance at the moment per latest NBM).

Temperatures Sunday look to peak in the mid to upper 20s. Aside from the low chances (<25% chance) of breaking above freezing Thursday, seasonable highs with widespread upper teens and 20s are favored this week. Overnight lows generally fall into the single digits above and below zero each night; although a more mild Sunday and Thursday night may yield widespread teens.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Lingering IFR/MVFR cigs at KIWD and KCMX will gradually trend toward VFR through 20-22z as the low cloud deck in place over the western UP shows some signs of eroding on latest visible satellite imagery. Also expect gradual improvement to VFR at KSAW this afternoon as winds shift around to the south and allow lake effect associated cloud cover to dissipate over the central UP. South winds increase Sunday morning ahead of the next approaching system which will bring a chance for light snow to KIWD towards the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Guidance continues to promote a consensus ideal of the coming pattern, with continued shots of cold air and troughs, preceded by periods of southerly stronger winds. Lightening winds have continued to be observed across the lake today. As of this publishing, all winds were below 20kts. These light winds will continue this evening, before increasing tonight in the east to 20-25kts from the south or southwest. These elevated winds spread eastward through the lake Sunday, peaking near 30kts in the east in the afternoon. The trough swings through from west to east Sunday night into Monday, with northwest winds increasing to 20-30kts by Monday, highest expected across the east. After these winds lighten Monday night into Tuesday morning, expecting light winds below 20kts through at least Thursday ahead of the next system. This system may end up being a gale alongside a high risk of heavy freezing spray Thursday night into early Saturday morning.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.