textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of snow comes in this evening, with lake effect continuing over the east Friday and Friday night.

- A period of strong winds and low visibility in blowing snow is expected along the lakeshores of the west and north central late tonight through Friday morning. See the latest Winter Weather Advisories for more information.

- Warmer than normal temperatures make a return next week. This will create areas of unstable ice on inland lakes and along the Great Lakes shorelines.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

As weak warm air ascent continues to leave the area this afternoon, expect a quick break in the light snowfall across the U.P. for the next few hours save for potentially some light upslope showers over the Keweenaw and east. As we remain under the 'warm' sector this afternoon, we may see temperatures sneak to around freezing over the far west, before a cold front dropping down from Ontario tonight brings strong CAA back across the region. In addition, while the lowest levels of the atmosphere will allow light snow showers to occur still (mainly via upslope), we could see some transition over to freezing drizzle over the west this afternoon into this evening ahead of the cold front as the top of the boundary layer doesn't quite get high enough to tap into the DGZ (could be drizzle over the far west if temperatures warm enough). However, no impacts are really expected as only a glaze of ice mixed is expected with potentially up to a dusting of additional snowfall this afternoon. The strong frontogenetic forcing and increasing delta-Ts with time will allow lake effect snowfall to develop over the NW to N wind snow belts from west to east tonight through Friday. Looking at the mean snowfall rates from the HREF, it looks like some moderate (1/2 inch per hour) snowfall could be seen over the west and later over Marquette/Alger counties late tonight to Friday morning, respectively. While snow totals are only expected to be around 1 to 3 inches between late tonight through Friday morning over these spots, with the CAA and fluffy nature of the snowfall creating a blowing snow (and thus a significantly reduced vis threat) for the Friday morning commute, going with short Winter Weather Advisories for the west from Gogebic County up through the Keweenaw and Marquette County late tonight/Friday morning. This blowing snow could reduce vis down to one quarter mile or less; while confidence is somewhat low on this, thinking some localized whiteout conditions cannot be ruled out either by the lakeshore (up to a 30% chance). As for Alger County, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going throughout Friday as the lake effect snowfall and blowing snow looks to continue through the daylight hours thanks to the longer fetch over the lake and remnant troughing remaining over the area (ridging and dry air entrains into the western U.P. by Friday morning, looking to cut-off the lake effect snowfall over there); blowing snow over Alger County looks to be the worst, as winds up to 45 mph are projected to bring widespread blowing snow vis reductions down to at least a quarter mile (as well as potentially near whiteout near the lakeshore). However, as the CAA and height rises weaken behind the cold front on Friday and Friday night, expect the vis conditions to progressively improve as the blowing snow and lake effect snow lighten. The light lake effect snow looks to continue over the eastern half of the U.P. until Saturday.

Attention then turns to another weak Clipper low moving through Saturday night/Sunday. This low looks to bring maybe up to an inch or so to the area Saturday night into Sunday morning before another Clipper low dropping down towards us brings a cessation of snowfall across the area on Sunday. As this second Clipper low weakens while moving into and through the Upper Great Lakes, expect more snowfall to move across our area; expect the SLRs to be around the lower teens to potentially around 10:1 as temperatures near the sfc could be near the freezing mark. However, recent deterministic guidance has cooled the temperatures for early next week to keep everywhere just below freezing, although the NBM still has temperatures getting into the mid 30s Monday through Tuesday. Should the more recent cooler trend hold, then snow an ice melt may become limited to non- existent; if, however, the cooler trend ends up being false, then expect some snow and ice melt across the U.P. and along the Great Lakes, particularly the west half. Expect temperatures to remain below freezing after the middle of next week as the high pressure ridge over the western U.S. finally breaks down and Colorado lows begin to move over the Midwest from mid to late next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 108 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Predominantly IFR/MVFR conditions are expected during the 18Z TAF period as another disturbance approaches the UP from the northwest. Expect stubborn freezing drizzle this afternoon, primarily in the west. A brief period of SCT IFR cigs is possible at IWD this afternoon, noted just upstream on satellite, but confidence on how long this period would last was low. Opted to keep OVC for now, but will amend as needed. Late tonight into Friday morning brings lake enhanced to eventually lake effect snow showers and stronger northerly winds. Winds around 15 kts gusting to 25 kts at IWD and 20 kts gusting to 30 kts at CMX/SAW are expect on Friday, strongest winds in the morning/early afternoon hours. Some blowing snow will accompany these stronger winds at CMX/SAW.

MARINE

Issued at 303 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light winds of around 20 knots or less this afternoon eventually increase to northerly gales of 40 to potentially 45 knots late tonight and Friday morning behind a cold front dropping down from northern Ontario. As the gales occur mostly the eastern half of the lake Friday, expect a return of heavy freezing spray as well. Once the better height rises and cold air advection dwindle behind the cold front late Friday through Friday night, expect the winds and heavy freezing spray to progressively weaken with time too; the last of the northerly gales end just after midnight Friday night, and the last of the heavy freezing spray ends over the east by early Saturday afternoon. Light winds of 20 knots or less return on Saturday and remain that way through the weekend. We could see southerly winds of 20 to potentially 25 knots again late Sunday night through Monday as a Clipper shortwave moves through the region. However, expect the winds to remain below 25 knots through the first half of next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Friday for MIZ001>003-009.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for MIZ005.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ006.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for LSZ242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for LSZ242-263.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for LSZ243>248-264- 265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243>248-264-265.

Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ248-250.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ248-250.