textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers continue over the north wind snow belts to the end of this week as a couple more disturbances pass through the region.

- Moderate snowfall rates and patches of blowing snow are possible across the Keweenaw, Ontonagon County, and Alger County today. The hazardous winter weather conditions could continue over the west through tonight too.

- Very cold wind chills in the east this morning and again late tonight into Friday morning; expect wind chills down to around -20F in Luce County and the areas near it.

- Cold weather persists until this weekend, when temperatures finally return to around normal to just slightly above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Lake effect snowfall now shifts into the north wind snow belts today and remains through Saturday morning as an inverted shortwave low progresses over the Upper Great Lakes late this week. Some moderate (1/2 inch per hour) to heavy (1+ inch per hour) lake effect snow bands are being seen over the east by Alger County early this morning. In addition, some occasionally moderate snowfall rates are being realized over the west this morning too with the help of some upslope enhancement. Expect the light to occasionally moderate lake effect snowfall to continue over the west today as the weakening winds limits the range to just Ontonagon, northern Houghton, and Keweenaw counties. As for the east, expect the heaviest snowfall to move offshore where the greatest convergence is expected. Nevertheless, some moderate snowfall rates will still be possible near the Lake Superior shoreline this morning into this afternoon. Overall, could see a few inches of fluffy to sand-like snowfall occur over these areas today, with potentially a dusting falling everywhere else. In addition to the snowfall, thinking some areas of blowing snow will be seen by the lakeshore today and tonight, even despite the weakening winds as the somewhat fluffy, somewhat sand- like snow will still be easily lofted into the air, and guidance hasn't handled this potential very well over the past several days. Therefore, while the Winter Storm Warnings will end over the east (and Winter Weather Advisories over Baraga/southern Houghton counties) this morning, extended the hazards over the west and Alger County with a Winter Weather Advisory to at least 7 PM EST this evening. Could see the Advisory over the west needing to be extended in the future as the latest HREF does show occasional moderate snowfall rates continuing through the overnight hours in at least Keweenaw and Ontonagon counties. While there is a chance that some moderate to even heavy lake effect snowfall rates could move onshore over Marquette County tonight, all of guidance at the moment is suggesting that the best snowfall rates will still remain offshore. Therefore, decided not to hoist up a Winter Weather Advisory for Marquette County tonight. If, however, the heavier snowfall trends onshore throughout the day today, then this may need to be reconsidered.

In addition to the lake effect snowfall, cold air drainage just north of the Soo in Ontario is dropping temperatures down to the negative teens in the far eastern U.P. as of the time of this writing. As the cold air continues to 'spill' into the eastern U.P. early this morning, expect the temperatures over Luce County and areas near it to drop down into the lower negative teens, allowing wind chills to dip into the negative 20s. Thus, a Cold Weather Advisory continues over Luce County until 10 AM EST this morning. With guidance suggesting basically a rinse-and-repeat for tonight/Friday morning, the plan is to have the day shift issue another Cold Weather Advisory for Luce County (and potentially northern Schoolcraft and even Alger County too if cold enough) later today, unless they believe there is a notable change in the going forecast.

As high pressure pushes into the region this weekend, expect the lake effect snowfall to dwindle and end over the U.P. by Saturday. In addition, expect a return to near normal to ever-so-slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the 20s to around 30F and lows in the single positive digits to mid-teens. We could see some light lake enhanced snowfall across the area again Sunday night into Monday as another shortwave passes through the area. However, with warmer temperatures aloft and greater ice coverage expected over the Great Lakes, thinking lake effect snow chances will be very small if not next to zero for next week; if lake effect snowfall does occur, it would be relegated to just after the passage of a shortwave as delta-Ts would only get up to around the lower teens.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 643 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mainly MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as lake effect snow showers and cloudiness continue to impact the area. The low level flow has become rather weak and thus lake effect has largly ended at IWD and SAW. As winds shift back to the north this afternoon and evening expect snow showers to move back into IWD and SAW. Couldn't rule out LIFR visby at CMX this afternoon and tonight, guidance has about a 20-40% chance for seeing LIFR through that period.

MARINE

Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Northerly winds of around 20 knots continue today as another shortwave low slowly progresses through the Upper Great Lakes. As one more disturbance rolls through tonight and Friday, expect the northerly winds to pick up to 20 to 30 knots across the lake. As this occurs, expect heavy freezing spray to extend out from the east- central to most of Lake Superior once again by late tonight through Friday. As high pressure builds back over the lake this weekend, expect the winds to die down to 20 knots or less by Saturday morning, with the heavy freezing spray ending too with the dwindling winds. As a shortwave passes through late Sunday through Monday, we may see south to southwest winds above 20 knots ahead of the low on Sunday and northwest winds above 20 knots behind the low on Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ001>003.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ004- 084.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ006- 085.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006.

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ007.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Friday for LSZ240>242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for LSZ243-244-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for LSZ245>248-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for LSZ249- 250-266.

Lake Michigan... None.