textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather continues through the weekend. Highs in the 50s today and Saturday, warming into the low 60s on Sunday and Monday (15-20F above average).

- Precipitation chances increase again early to mid next week. Confidence is increasing on a wetting rainfall (quarter inch or greater) occurring.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

As high pressure ridging continues to build into the region the rest of this week, expect the lake effect cloud cover seen overhead early this morning to progressively erode away across the area today, with mostly sunny skies seen during the daylight hours. While we can expect weak WAA to slowly work its way into the region today, with antecedent cooler air remaining overhead, expect the high temperatures today to range from the 40s along the Lake Superior shoreline to the 50s pretty much everywhere else. With the building ridging bringing calm winds to the sfc tonight, expect lows to tank into the 20s in the interior and 30s near the Great Lakes.

While a subtle lower atmospheric shortwave moves through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes this weekend, rain chances associated with it aren't that impressive as mid to upper level guidance suggests that some subsidence could be seen in these portions of the atmosphere. In addition, the forcing associated with the shortwave in the lower levels looks to be weak; without much instability to assist, there's a 60-70% chance that the area remains dry for this weekend, even as cloud skies move overhead. That being said, expect the temperatures to keep warming Saturday and Sunday, with highs Saturday getting into the 50s and Sunday into the lower 60s. Expect lows Saturday and Sunday nights to be notably warmer too, only dropping down into the 40s Saturday night and only into the mid 40s Sunday night, even in the traditional 'cold spots' in the interior areas.

More dry weather is seen next Monday as sfc ridging builds to around 1024-1026mb around Upper Michigan. However, better rain chances are now projected to move into the area around the middle of next week, starting as early as late next Monday as a vertically-stacked low lifts through the Plains into northern Ontario. Given the model convergence recently on this solution, confidence is increasing on this bringing rainfall to the area for the middle of next week. Should the current modeled solutions hold, we could see a wetting (quarter inch or greater) rainfall across the area between the middle and end of next week. In addition, the model convergence is also increasing the likelihood of well above normal temperatures moving overhead for the last half of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 700 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Morning satellite imagery shows clears skies across most of Upper Michigan, but a few bands of dissipating lake effect clouds and rain showers may produce a few more hours of intermittent MVFR cigs at KCMX and KSAW through 14-15z. This activity will continue to wane as high pressure builds overhead today, yielding VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the duration of the period. West-northwest winds around 8-10 kt at KCMX and KSAW diminish below 5 kt by this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1243 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Lake Superior: Northwest winds of 20 to 25 kts this morning dwindle down to 20 kts or less by this afternoon as high pressure builds into the area today and tonight. Light winds of generally 20 kts or less continue over the lake through the weekend as a weak low-level shortwave rides the ridging that continues even into next Monday. However, as a vertically-stacked low begins lifting from the Plains towards northern Ontario Monday night through Tuesday, expect the winds to increase to 20 to 30 kts from the southeast for the same time period. South to southwest winds of 20 to 25 kts could be seen behind the low's passage Tuesday night into Wednesday across the lake.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Light winds of 15 kts or less continue through the rest of this week into early next week as high pressure ridging continues to build in over the region. It won't be until a vertically-stacked low lifts from the Plains to northern Ontario Monday night and Tuesday that winds increase to 20 to 30 kts from the southeast and south. Behind the low, expect south to southwest winds of 15 to 20 kt Tuesday night into Wednesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.