textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate lake enhanced snowfall continues impacting the Keweenaw and parts of the central U.P. today. Less than an inch of snowfall is expected in the far western and eastern U.P. today.

- More normal winter-time temperatures and lake enhanced to lake effect snow showers continue this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

As low pressure troughing progressively weakens over the Great Lakes region this weekend into early next week, lake enhanced snow showers continue over the central U.P. and Keweenaw today as the remnants of a TROWAL bring enough synoptic forcing (in addition to the upslope flow and convergent flow within the troughing) to squeak out some moderate snowfall rates over the Keweenaw and north central U.P., with some heavy snowfall rates of 1+ inch per hour potentially being realized in the strongest convergent bands. With the area of lake enhanced snowfall becoming more focused this morning, decided to end the Winter Weather Advisory over Ontonagon and southern Houghton counties. In addition, downgraded the Winter Storm Warnings over Baraga, northern Houghton, and Keweenaw counties into a Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of today as only some occasionally heavy snowfall rates could be seen from time to time; expect generally only an additional 3 to 5 inches over this part of the U.P. today, although the highest terrain in Baraga County could see localized amounts up to 8 inches or more. I was tempted to take Iron County out of its Advisory this morning, but since the far western edge of the lake enhanced snowfall 'band' was still getting over to Crystal Falls around midnight this morning, decided against it. That being said, this may change in the future as the latest guidance seems to hint at Iron County now remaining snow free for most of the rest of the day; will reconsider the Winter Weather Advisory over Iron County later this morning. Overall, areas in the south central and western Alger County/Delta county are expected to see between 1 to 3 inches between now and 1 PM EST, with the exception maybe being far western Alger County where 5+ inches could be seen due to potential heavy snow convergent bands developing over the area. As for the far west and east, generally around an inch or less of snowfall is expected through today.

As we progressively lose synoptic support this weekend, expect the gradual transition over to lake effect snow showers between now and Monday as snow showers develop over the north wind snow belts starting tonight. While the very fluffy snowfall within the lake enhanced/effect bands could bring moderate snowfall rates at times, generally 1 to 3 inches are expected for every 12 hour period over the north wind snow belts between tonight and Monday evening. Thus, the current expectation is to not issue a Winter Weather Advisory in the future after today. That being said, as better guidance comes in for the future, this may change in subsequent forecast packages. And, with the addition of the blowing snow potential late Sunday, we may see Winter Weather Advisories hoisted for portions of the north wind snow belts from Marquette westward.

More normal winter-time temperatures are expected this weekend through early next week as highs generally only get into the 20s, with most of the area only getting into the teens on Monday as the coldest air of the next 7 days moves overtop us. As ridging moving over us brings an end to the lake effect snowfall by Monday evening, don't expect the break in snowfall to last all that long as a Clipper low brings a few inches of fluffy snowfall back across the region Tuesday. Behind this Clipper, expect above normal temperatures to return as we head towards the end of the month.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

As snowfall transitions from system to lake effect, visibility will drive IFR or lower conditions at SAW and CMX throughout the period, with low ceilings keeping IWD in MVFR to IFR conditions this TAF. Chances of vis dropping to 1/2SM or lower at CMX are 20-40 percent especially in the late morning and early afternoon hours of Saturday, with chances of similar conditions at SAW at over 40 percent with a few models suggesting airport minimum visibility. Expect NW to N winds throughout the period of 5-10 kt with gusts of generally 10-20 kt.

MARINE

Issued at 343 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Northerly winds of 15-25 kts are expected through tonight with the exception of some gusts up to 30 kts this afternoon and evening over the central third of the lake. Strongest winds are expected near the Marquette County shores. These higher gusts will be accompanied by light to moderate freezing spray. 20 kt winds or lower primarily out of the north are expected for Saturday into Saturday night. Northerly winds increase to 20-30 kts lake-wide for Sunday and Sunday night, gradually diminishing below 20 kts from west to east on Monday as high pressure moves in. There is a 20-50% chance for gales to 35 kts over the east Sunday evening into Monday morning. Moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected Sunday through Monday.

A clipper system next Tuesday brings southerly winds of 20-30 kts into Tuesday night followed by northwest winds Wednesday into Thursday morning. Winds fall below 20 kts on Thursday with a passing high pressure ridge. Chances for gales are low during this system at 15% over the east. Heavy freezing spray likely will accompany the stronger winds on Tuesday with moderate to heavy freezing spray possible Tuesday night into Thursday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ001- 003-004.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ005- 006-013.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MIZ010>012.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.