textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Benign weather and cooler than normal temperatures continue until the end of this week. Some diurnal rain and snow showers are possible during the daytime hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Synoptic setup across the CONUS this afternoon has Upper Michigan under the continued influence of rising surface pressure from the west. And, strong mid-level ridging over the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Prairies continues to stream into the central CONUS. Nonetheless, weak shortwaves rotating around a Hudson Bay low have persistently been generating sprinkles and flurries across the U.P. the last few days and will continue to do so through tomorrow and possibly into Friday. With much dry air in the lower levels, though, due to the surface ridging, any rain/snow showers will have a tough time reaching the ground.

Along with this pattern comes the northwest flow that will keep temperatures below normal through tomorrow. Currently, high temperatures across the forecast area are struggling to even reach the mid 40s with ground-based obs reporting widespread upper 30s/low 40s. The outlier at this time is Menominee coming in at 46 degrees. And, with significant radiational cooling again tonight and tomorrow night, overnight lows will plummet into the mid to upper 20s across the interior, warmer near the lakeshores (low to mid 30s).

By Friday, the pattern will begin to shift a little as warm air advection overspreads the U.P. ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of the area will top off in the upper 50s/low 60s through Saturday except the Keweenaw and north-central, which will see low to mid 50s. With the slight uptick in temperatures, Friday will likely be the highest threat for elevated fire weather concerns when min RH values drop into the 25-30% range across much of the interior. Light winds, though, should help mitigate any impacts.

As the aforementioned cold front drops down from Canada Friday night/Saturday, rain shower chances will increase up to 30-40%. But, no significant QPF values are expected. In the wake of the front, high pressure will once again strengthen over the U.P. as the current Pacific Northwest high pressure block shifts eastward. Temperatures will briefly dip on Sunday, but then slowly rebound next week. Look for high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s by mid-week. And, as a few shortwaves return late in the extended period, a trend toward wetter conditions enters the forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 709 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will generally be light, westerly 10 kts of less. The only exception is at CMX where winds could gust to 20kt through early this evening. A shortwave moving through the region on Thursday will bring a few light showers through the U.P, with the best chance over the south. Probabilities and impacts are too low to include a mention of showers in the TAFs.

MARINE

Issued at 347 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Winds generally less than 20 knots will prevail into the weekend as high pressure ridging over the Pacific Northwest keeps the weather quiet over the Upper Great Lakes Region. The only impactful weater of note will be a burst of cold air advection on Sunday that will generate northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots over the eastern half of the lake. Further out, light winds and benign weather will return Monday. The next chance for any rain showers will be across the western portions of the lake late Monday night into Tuesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.