textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers continue through the work-week as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Periods of blowing snow and moderate (1/2 inch per hour) snowfall rates are possible (up to 30% chance), including today through tonight over the east near Lake Superior.

- Cold weather persists through the end of the week, with daytime highs in the single digits to teens and overnight lows mostly staying below or near zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

While generally light lake effect snowfall is being realized over the northwest wind snow belts early this morning, some occasionally moderate (1/2 inch per hour) to even locally heavy (1 inch or more per hour) snowfall rates have been observed across Upper Michigan thus far as the shortwave low responsible continues through eastern Lake Superior this morning before rotating towards the St. Lawrence Seaway this afternoon. While moisture associated with this system is fairly limited, enough moisture flux brought about by the latent heat release from the very cold air over Lake Superior is looking to bring anywhere from 1 to 4 inches over the western northwest wind snow belts today through tonight, with isolated amounts up to 6 or so inches in the higher terrain of the Keweenaw between Rockland and Houghton. While we can expect some areas of blowing snow over the west today, with the moderate snowfall being fairly localized (i.e. snowfall rates should be mostly less than 1/2 inch per hour or less), no Winter Weather Advisory is being issued for the Keweenaw or Ontonagon County this morning. However, with the longer fetch and some extra convergence increasing snowfall rates and moisture to work with today and tonight, thinking moderate (1/2 inch per hour) snowfall rates are a lot more possible over the eastern northwest wind snow belts (up to 30% chance for any given hour between now and 7 AM EST Wednesday); even heavy snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour cannot be completely ruled out either (up to a 10% chance). Thus, around 3 to 8 inches of fluffy-ish snowfall could be seen east of Munising and north of M-28 between this morning and Wednesday morning. Taking the snowfall rates into account, as well as the areas of blowing snow expected near Lake Superior, decided to hoist up a Winter Weather Advisory for the hazardous travel conditions expected today through tonight. With a mesolow potentially forming over eastern Lake Superior on Wednesday plausibly continuing moderate to heavy snowfall rates over the eastern U.P. Wednesday into possibly Wednesday night, we could see the Winter Weather Advisory extended in subsequent forecast shifts.

Expect the forecast to be pretty straightforward for this week: below normal temperatures continue with highs in the single positive digits to mid-teens and lows in the single negative digits as lake effect snow showers continue across the northwest and eventually north wind snow belts. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw moderate snowfall rates return to Marquette County around the Thursday/Friday time period once the winds become northerly and upslope enhancement comes into play for the areas just inland from the lake (Negaunee, Ishpeming, Gwinn, etc). However, high pressure ridging and warm air advection attempt to move into the region late this week and eventually win-out by Saturday, ending the lake effect snowfall across the region. With the arrival of the high pressure ridging, expect the temperatures to become slightly above normal, with highs generally being in the 20s and lows only being in the single positive digits to lower teens. It does look like we may see a shortwave bring some lake enhanced snowfall back over us early next week, but confidence in this is low at this time due to this being several days out still.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 656 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Mainly MVFR and IFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites today as lake effect snow showers move off of Lake Superior. CMX will see the heaviest and most numerous snow showers with steady IFR conditions and periodic LIFR in the heavier snow showers. For IWD conditions will mainly be IFR followed by improvement to MVFR this afternoon as winds become more westerly and snow showers shift north airport. Conditions are SAW will mainly be MVFR and any show shower activity should be very light. SAW should improve to VFR late in the day. Gusty winds are expected at all the TAF sites into the afternoon, strongest at CMX where blowing snow can also be expected.

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Northwest winds of 25 to 30 knots and heavy freezing spray continues across Lake Superior today, with some gale force gusts up to 35 knots expected (50-60% chance) this morning through early this afternoon over the east-central. Winds slacken to 20 to 25 knots tonight before becoming northerly around 20 knots by Thursday. As this occurs, expect the heavy freezing spray to slowly dwindle across the lake until going away by Thursday morning. As remnant troughing remains over the eastern lake through the end of the work- week, expect the northerly winds to increase to 20 to 30 knots and a return of heavy freezing spray across portions of the lake until Friday night. As high pressure ridging moves through the lake this weekend, expect light winds of 20 knots or less.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ006- 007-085.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Wednesday for LSZ162.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for LSZ240>244-263-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ245>248-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ249-250-266.

Lake Michigan... None.