textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated hazardous roadways are possible for this morning's commute thanks to a mix of wet snow and light freezing rain overnight.

- Lake effect snow showers and gusty winds this afternoon and tonight will result in areas of blowing snow in eastern Upper Michigan and in the Keweenaw. This will likely result in rapidly changing visibilities, mainly in areas close to Lake Superior and exposed to west-northwest to northwest winds.

- Well above normal daytime temperatures settle over the region late this week and coming weekend. Overnight temperatures below freezing will create a freeze/thaw cycle that may make lake ice hazardous.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Precip began falling in the evening hours across portions of central Upper Michigan, gradually filling into the east and overcoming the surface dry layer. KESC reported a few observations of unknown precipitation (likely light freezing rain or drizzle), before transitioning over to snow. Across northern Marquette and Baraga counties, the dry layer has been evident on radar, limiting precip so far. Temperatures across the region have fallen into the upper 20s or low 30s for most locations. As the remainder of the night continues, precip will stretch across the UP, filling in across north-central, then continue to focus into the eastern portions of the forecast area, likely falling primarily as snow from this point out. Tough to gauge impacts based on webcams and radar returns for this event; given that the snow is of the wetter variety and that some freezing rain or drizzle occurred initially though, suspect a hazardous commute will be possible this morning. Current plan is to maintain the inherited Winter Weather Advisories until expiration at 12z.

Quasi-zonal flow is currently being observed across northern CONUS, per GOES water vapor imagery and RAP analysis. Within this flow, a 1006mb low is currently analyzed over north-central Ontario with a cold front extending southwest through Minnesota. This front will dive through the forecast area this morning, pushing the ongoing precip out of the region. Post frontal airmass quickly falls to around -11C at 850mb this afternoon under west-northwest surface flow. Inversion heights climb to near 5k feet as a secondary shortwave rotates through the upper level low over the region. The setup will favor lake effect snow showers pressing downwind into Upper Michigan and gusty winds. Snow will be fluffy, with snow ratios of 15-20:1. Surface high slowly presses into the region Wednesday and Thursday, likely continuing shower activity into the Keweenaw/Michigamme Highlands into at least Wednesday morning and into Alger, northern Schoolcraft, and Luce county into Thursday morning. Accumulations are anticipated to be light, on the order of 1 to 1.5 inches per 6 hours in the heaviest spots. Winds will mostly be west-northwest to northwest. The colder air will likely be able to produce 30-40 mph in the Keweenaw and by Lake Superior this afternoon and overnight (80% chance) and 20-25mph elsewhere. This will likely result in blowing snow and areas of quickly changing visibility. This includes M-28, where the iced in lakeshores may further contribute to reduced visibilities, and exposed areas of US- 41 north of Houghton.

The surface high is expected to slowly transit the Great Lakes as split upper level flow across the western halves of Canada and CONUS push broad mid-upper level ridging into central Canada. The ridge flattens out as the surface high parks ridging from the Mid-Atlantic northward into Quebec into Sunday. This will allow southwest flow and a warm air airmass to settle into the Upper Great Lakes, likely warming 850mb temps between -1C and +1C. With pockets of clear skies mixed within, many locations are expected to warm above freezing during daylight hours Thursday through the weekend. Friday and Saturday appear to the warmest days and when skies are anticipated to be clearest. These days, both EC and Canadian deterministic packages suggest daytime highs reaching the mid 40s for large portions of the forecast area. NBM mean is less optimistic about these temperatures, but still does suggest 50-65 percent chances of exceeding 40 degrees in the south central and interior west these days. Overnight temperatures will fall below freezing each night. This freeze/thaw cycle may make ice on lakes hazardous as well as changing the texture of the snowpack for winter recreation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 612 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Outgoing system snow will become lake effect snow showers and gusty west-northwest winds this afternoon and tonight behind a morning cold front. Expecting mostly MVFR ahead of and as the front moves through this morning, with MVFR conditions in lake effect at KIWD and IFR at KCMX thanks to the increased risk for blowing snow. Wind gusts of 25 to 30kts are expected, with the higher values anticipated at KCMX. KSAW is expected to be too far west for shower activity given the wind direction and analyzed lake ice on Lake Superior limiting heat flux into the atmosphere. Strong winds are anticipated to lighten tonight, but still remain 20-25kts.

MARINE

Issued at 209 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Southerly to southwesterly winds are currently observed across Lake Superior ahead of a cold front stretching south into Minnesota. This front will move through the region today, followed by west-northwest to northwesterly winds increasing to 25-35kts. The gales are expected across the east half where inherited Gale Warnings are still on track into late tonight. The elevated winds settle beginning tonight, but will still hover 25-30kts east of the Keweenaw into Wednesday evening, when they fall below 20kts. Light winds then prevail through rest of the week and coming weekend thanks to a slowly moving surface high.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ005>007-012>014-085.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.