textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Slow moving system will bring light to moderate snow to the region this afternoon into Saturday, followed by lake effect into Sunday.

- Snow Sunday night and Monday will be very fine and susceptible to blowing in the wind. This and stronger winds of 20 to 35 mph may result in hazardous travel Sunday night and Monday.

- Colder air settles into the region late this weekend into next week. This will bring subzero overnight lows and hazardous wind chills.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Lake effect snow showers have been the main story in the forecast area tonight, with multi-band snow showers pressing downwind from Lake Superior. Radar reflectivities only catch those in the central portions of Upper Michigan, which highlight well the periodic higher snowfall rates and thus, visibility reductions at the surface, mixed within the bands. Elsewhere across portions of Keweenaw, Houghton, Ontonagon, Gogebic, and Luce counties, webcams show occasional light snow showers and pockets of flurries. Temperatures across the region have been hovering in the teens and single digits above under mostly cloudy skies. The rest of the night, upstream surface high will continue pressing east into the Upper Great Lakes. This will allow shower organization to deteriorate as dry air and subsidence increase, ultimately leading to shower activity ending.

Broad mid-upper level troughing is currently analyzed extending south from Hudson Bay/Quebec, with ridging across CONUS' western third. This places northwest flow aloft over central Canada, which will progress into the Upper Great Lakes today as the trough continues eastward. While the surface high building into the region today will keep things dry for most, this northwest flow aloft will allow the next shortwave to press into the region this afternoon into Friday morning. Latest guidance suggests an accompanying surface low will cross Lake Superior, Upper Michigan, or northern Wisconsin Friday, followed by surface troughing bending back over Lake Superior while a secondary shortwave rotates overhead Saturday. This will support widespread snow tonight and Friday, followed by a transition into lake enhanced and lake effect that'll reduce snow coverage to the traditional Lake Superior snowbelt regions Saturday and Sunday. Accumulations look to be light to moderate, on the order of a couple inches every 6 hours. However, increased surface convergence may support higher snowfall amounts in western Gogebic and the Porky region of Ontonagon tonight through Friday where the latest HREF suggests ~50% chance for exceeding 2 inches per 6 hours. This is also the case in Schoolcraft/Luce tonight and Friday morning where a more dominate banding structure may develop.

Sunday, as lake effect begins winding down, another clipper drops into the region, deepening as it does. This will kick off another widespread snowfall opportunity by afternoon or evening before transitioning to lake effect beginning Monday morning. Lake effect looks to continue through at least mid-week. The airmass building into the region will be cold, with 850mb temperatures on the order of -25 to -30C. This will bring the DGZ to or below the ground, resulting in very fine snow crystals that are susceptible to blowing in the wind. This system will also include a stronger pressure gradient and potentially an isallobaric acceleration, thereby further increasing the risk hazardous conditions from blowing snow. Main risk area for this will be the Keweenaw Peninsula, where ~30 mph or greater are most likely, but areas by Lake Superior and the traditional northwest wind snow belts will also be susceptible.

The warmest days in the period come today through Saturday, where daytime temperatures peak in the teens and 20s. Overnight lows fall mostly in the teens. Beginning Saturday night though, subzero temperatures are expected in the interior west with above zero single digits for most locations elsewhere. Cooler highs are also expected Sunday, when temps climb to near 10F west half and the mid teens east/south. The system building into the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night will pull in a cold airmass, resulting in subzero to near zero overnight lows beginning Sunday night and daytime highs in the single digits. Dangerous wind chills below -15F will also be a concern beginning Monday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 655 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Lake effect snow showers will continue to wind down through around 15z this morning with predominant MVFR conditions trending towards VFR for at least a few hours at most terminals this afternoon. The next round of light snow moves back in the western U.P. around 18z and spreads east during the afternoon, dropping conditions back to MVFR in the process. Light snow persists through the rest of the TAF period, with guidance showing around a 50% chance for intermittent IFR conditions to develop after 00z this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 214 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Northerly to northwesterly flow has been observed on Lake Superior tonight, mainly blowing 20 to 25kts. With surface temperatures in the 20s and teens, this is likely resulting in freezing spray. Winds are expected to lighten over the next few hours though, reducing this risk as the night progresses. Light winds will hold until this afternoon, when southerlies increase west of the Keweenaw to 25 to 30kts ahead of the next system moving into the region. These will spread over the lake this evening, but lighten tonight as the stretched out surface low moves over the lake. These light winds will hold as the winds swing to the north and increase to near 25kts along the system's western flank. Lingering troughing over the area with a colder airmass overhead will support near 30kt winds and conditions conducive for freezing spray accumulation Saturday and Saturday night. Winds lighten to near 20 to 25kts Sunday, but ramp up again Sunday night as the next system and shot of cold air builds overhead. This will likely result in gales and heavy freezing spray beginning Sunday night. Little uncertain when winds will lighten, but its possible gales may linger into Monday night across the east.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.