textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Smoke from upstream wildfires will continue to impact all of Upper Michigan into this weekend. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect through today. Consider limiting strenuous outdoor activity.

- Ongoing smoke concerns lend low confidence to the temperature forecast, with afternoon highs potentially struggling to get out of the 60s and 70s again today.

- An approaching system is likely to bring rain across the UP Friday morning through Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Early morning regional RAP analysis reveals the persistent upper level ridge parked over the central CONUS, placing Upper Michigan on the northeastern flank. Northwest flow aloft and building surface high pressure continues to usher in dense wildfire smoke from the MN Boundary Waters and NW Ontario fires. Hazardous air quality can be seen plaguing the region on permanent and backyard air quality sensors. Otherwise, temps across the Yoop have fallen into the mid 50s to mid 60s, likely the coolest some have felt since last week! Ridging and high pressure linger through today with smoke persisting over the area. Air Quality Alerts issued by the Michigan Dept of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) remain in effect. Please consider staying indoors and limiting strenuous outside activity. Wildfire smoke will also continue to make temperature forecasting difficult, potentially lowering high temps 5-10 degrees than expected. As such, have opted to lower temps from the NBM through the next few days.

Friday at least offers the potential for some relief as upper level flow gradually pivots more zonal with the flattening of the upper level ridge by strong troughing over northern Quebec and Labrador. This will open the door to an approaching shortwave trough which looks likely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area early Friday through early Saturday morning. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Friday, which seems reasonable given CAM ensembles highlight building afternoon MUCAPE and effective shear 35-45 kts. Ensembles still depict a 60- 80% chance for a wetting rain of at least a quarter inch across most of the area save for a 40-60% along the stateline through Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will be locally higher where thunderstorms occur. This, coupled with a shift in the surface flow to a more southerly direction, will hopefully help to start to mix the smoke out of the lower levels of the atmosphere and even more importantly will hopefully have an effect on the upstream wildfires to limit smoke production going forward. Confidence on how that scenario will unfold remains low at this time given lingering questions about track, strength and timing of this system.

Aside from lingering questions about smoke, the forecast otherwise looks relatively benign through much of next week as the region settles back into northwesterly flow with temperatures near seasonal norms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 739 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

IFR to LIFR FU vis will be the rule today as high pressure settles overhead. Light north to northeast flow will continue advecting in dense smoke concentrations. There may be a brief period of mixing this afternoon that allows vis to increase to MVFR, but confidence is quite low and the TAFs may need to be amended as such. Little to no improvement is expected overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms approach the western UP early tomorrow morning, which may help to improve visibility.

MARINE

Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Continuing to maintain Dense Smoke Advisories over all of Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan/Bay of Green Bay through at least Friday morning as wildfire smoke from Ontario and MN drifts over the region. Expect visibility to fluctuate below 1 nm at times. There is a high likelihood that these headlines will need to be extended further out in time in upcoming forecast cycles given latest model guidance. Surface high pressure remains over Lake Superior today, keeping winds below 15 kts area wide. Winds may increase near/above 20 kt at times Friday through the weekend with a series of systems moving through, also bringing a potential for thunderstorms.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for LSZ162-240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan... Dense Smoke Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ221-248-250.