textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will develop this evening before transitioning to all snow tonight. A light glaze of freezing rain is expected before precipitation quickly transitions to snow. 1-3" of snowfall is expected, highest east. Untreated surfaces could become slippery.

- Warmer than normal temperatures make a return this week. Freeze/thaw cycles may make ice on lakes hazardous as well as changing the texture of the snowpack for winter recreation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

This afternoon an upper level low was passing through Manitoba and into Ontario with shortwave ridging that had been over the U.P last night moving to the east. Somewhat zonal flow was over the northern tier of the U.S with embedded shortwaves. A weak wave was passing through this afternoon and despite an abundance of dry air in the low levels was able to kick off some precipitation. A warm layer (1- 3C) was resulting in mixed precipitation in the form of snow, sleet and freezing rain as these showers pushed through the north central U.P though mainly trace amounts had been observed. Temperatures had warmed into the 20s and 30s, with some locations in the west rising above freezing.

Tonight the next shortwave will move through the area. Models have continued to go with a slower solution, with the steadier precipitation holding off until later this evening. The slower timing keeps the precipitation lagging the warm layer, which will likely cool before much of the precipitation starts. There will still be an opportunity for freezing rain initially over the central U.P but evaporative cooling should erode the remaining warm layer quickly transitioning precipitation over to snow. Looking at the HREF it appears a few members still have likely freezing rain probabilities over the central U.P for up to 3 hours but most of the contributing members are the time lagged and thus likely not representative of the expected slower timing. The snow still looks to be on the wetter side with snow ratios around 7:1 to 10:1. Total accumulations look to be in the 1 to 3" range with the highest amounts in the eastern U.P though wouldn't be surprised to see a few 4" reports in the far east. It only takes a light glaze of ice to cause travel headaches and slippery surfaces so will keep the winter weather advisory going for the east-central and eastern counties but drop Baraga, Dickinson and Iron. Those counties could still see isolated light freezing rain but widespread impacts do not look likely.

Widespread light snow will end during the morning hours on Tuesday. Winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold front during the early morning with lake effect snow developing in the northwest wind snowbelts through the day on Tuesday. Not expecting significant lake effect snow with low inversion heights but mid-level moisture would help enhance the lake effect resulting in a few inches of fluffy accumulation. There could also be some areas of blowing and drifting snow, mainly close to Lake Superior in the Keweenaw and eastern U.P. A more westerly component to the winds should limit any blowing snow impacts on M-28 east of Marquette to Munising. Temperatures are not terribly cold behind the front with highs in the 20s expected with low 30s in the southeast U.P.

Tuesday night into Wednesday lake effect snow will continue to be possible in the northwest wind snowbelts, especially in the eastern U.P. Snow should be light with accumulations of an inch or two. Lows will be in the teens and highs in the 20s. Lake effect snow will diminish all together on Thursday as winds become southerly and warmer air begins to surge north.

Friday into the weekend continue to look warmer, with temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above average. NBM guidance continues to warm slightly for Friday and Saturday with highs approaching the 40 degree mark. NBM is still bringing low PoPs into the area on Sunday as a few ensemble members continue to track a low north into the Great Lakes, though a majority of the solutions favor a track well south of the region. Those recreating on the ice this weekend should be mindful of possible changes to the ice stability with the expected warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 732 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions remain steady at IWD and SAW this evening, while MVFR prevails at CMX. All TAF sites, though, will deteriorate to at least MVFR by Tue 06Z with the onset of the next shortwave. Initially, there could be a mix of freezing rain and snow showers early tonight before transitioning to all snow later tonight. Expect predominantly MVFR with PROB30 groups to account for deterioration to IFR in the Tue 09-12Z time frame, especially. Confidence is not high enough, however, to include mention of any LIFR at this time. After Tue 12Z, MVFR should prevail with a reduced threat for IFR. Expect MVFR to persist through most of the TAF period, but IWD could see some VFR late in TAF period. Meanwhile, there will be a gradual wind shift change from southwest to northwest through the course of the TAF period. And, wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts will be an impact at CMX by Tue 12Z through the end of TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 346 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Southerly winds of 25-30kt will diminish this evening before turning northwest on Tuesday morning and increasing to 30 kt in the west and gales of 35-40 kt in the east by Tuesday afternoon. Gales will diminish Tuesday night but northwest winds of 25-30kt will continue into Wednesday, expect in the west where winds will generally be below 20 kt. Expect freezing spray to accompany the stronger northwest winds in the eastern half of the lake, however heavy freezing spray in not expected at this time. Southerly winds below 20 kt are expected Thursday into the weekend as warmer air spreads north over the area.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for MIZ005>007-012>014-085.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.