textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Benign weather and cooler than normal temperatures continue until the end of this week. Some diurnal rain and snow showers are possible during the daytime hours.

- Widespread rain showers return by Saturday. Some spots may get up to a tenth to a quarter of an inch of liquid.

- More cooler and dry weather is expected for early next week as high pressure descends over us from the Canadian Prairies.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

As high pressure ridging continues to influence the area today, expect another weak impulse passing through the Upper Great Lakes region to bring some light diurnal rain/snow showers to the U.P. once again. Thus, while temperatures may be a couple of degrees warmer than what we experienced yesterday, expect today to pretty much be a rinse-and-repeat of yesterday: dry air at the sfc from the sfc ridging, cooler than normal temperatures, and partly to mostly cloudy skies during the daylight hours. The only other slight difference between today and yesterday is that the snowfall chances are lower during the daytime, whereas the rain chances will be higher thanks to the ever-so-slightly warmer temperatures. While we could see a band of showers moving through the U.P. this evening (as seen in the RAP, HRRR, and NAMNest guidances), thinking chances of this happening are around 30% as the best amount of diurnal CAPE will be past by this point. However, if any snowfall does fall today and this evening, expect even that to melt at the sfc as the ground is now well above freezing across the U.P.

We start to see warmer temperatures move into the area by Friday as warm air advection precedes a cold front dropping down from Canada over us late Friday night into Saturday. As it does so, expect the warmer weather and sunnier skies to allow for even deeper mixing within the boundary layer, allowing RHs to fall well into the 20 percents across the interior areas of the U.P. by the afternoon; while the chance is low, some of the driest spots could sneak into the upper teen percents for RHs. With high temperatures also getting into the 50s to lower 60s across the U.P., we may flirt with elevated fire weather conditions. That being said, even despite the robust mixing, winds at the sfc may have some difficulty getting above 20 mph as there will be no LLJ to help create windy conditions. With somewhat westerly winds expected across the area (maybe southerly along Lake MI) on Friday with gusts only just getting above 20 mph at some of the higher elevation areas, thinking that we will avoid elevated fire weather concerns across the U.P., but only just.

Widespread rain showers return to the area late Friday night through Saturday as a cold front pushes through Upper Michigan. While dry air associated with the cold front will limit precipitation amounts and potentially even coverage across the U.P., the NBM brings around a 10 to 20% chance for over a tenth of an inch of liquid across the U.P. with the cold front's passage, and some isolated spots may get up to a quarter of an inch or so.

Moving into early next week, drier and cooler weather returns as high pressure ridging digs down from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes region. This will bring cooler than normal temperatures back across the area as well as RHs dropping into the 20 percents in the interior portions of Upper Michigan. Thankfully, with the ridging keeping the winds light, elevated fire weather concerns are not projected at this time for early next week. As we head into the rest of next week, the U.P. looks to be subject to a more active pattern as high pressure ridging from the Canadian Prairies potentially gives way to a Clipper shortwave or two; how much precipitation (if any) we get from the Clipper(s) will depend on the track of the low(s).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 111 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will generally be light, 10 kts of less. A shortwave moving through the region today will bring a few light showers through the U.P, with the best chance over the south. Probabilities and impacts are too low to include a mention of showers in the TAFs.

MARINE

Issued at 214 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Winds remain generally 20 knots or less through the rest of this week as the cooler Canadian air slowly gives way to warmer air from west of the area. However, once a cold front descends over the lake late Friday night through Saturday, expect winds to pickup from the northwest behind it to 20 to 25 knots over the eastern half of Lake Superior on Saturday. While the winds are predicted to weaken slightly to around 20 knots Saturday night, continuing cold air advection into Sunday could increase the winds by a couple of knots throughout the daytime Sunday into Sunday evening. However, with high pressure incoming from the Canadian Prairies early next week, expect winds to become 20 knots or less again by late Sunday night and to remain that way for at least the first half of next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.