textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cold temperatures through tonight with highs mainly in the teens and lows in the single digits.

- Light lake effect snow showers persist today, mainly over the east.

- A warmer pattern with daily high temperatures in the 30s and 40s is expected this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

A longwave trough present over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada is above a surface high pressure expanding over the Upper Midwest. This high pressure becomes centered over Upper Michigan today, keeping the area underneath cold northwest flow. Despite model soundings showing inversion heights over the east of 5-7 kft, radar imagery shows weak cellular bands wiggling over the east that struggle to reach 20dBZ. Early morning GOES water vapor imagery highlights an embedded shortwave entering the CWA from the northwest. This wave should provide a bit of extra lift this morning alongside some low level convergence near Alger County, but impacts and accumulations above 2 inches are not anticipated today given the onshore stability and unimpressive moisture. Also, weak WAA aloft will work against delta- Ts throughout the day while the west wind component shifts showers east. Otherwise colder than normal highs are expected in the teens for the most part save for some low 20s in the south- central. Temps settle tonight once again into the single digits above and below 0.

Zonal flow sets up this week with systems to the north and south likely only grazing the UP (70-90% chance for dry weather through Thursday). More widespread PoPs ~50% set up for Friday as deeper trough tracks off the Rockies toward the Upper Great Lakes, in turn sending a low pressure through the region into the weekend. Spread on track remains high at the moment, however confidence in any resulting precip being mostly rain is high (50-70%). Predictability continues to drop off the remainder of the weekend into next week as the zonal pattern persists. The extended pattern favors a warm up, with highs once again returning to the 40s for many. Lows initially in the upper teens to 20s early next week push near freezing near the end of the week. There is a 30-60% chance for highs in the 50s Sunday and Monday over the west/south-central UP. With longer periods of above freezing temps alongside Tds warming up near and above freezing late this week, expect snowpack compaction and snowmelt to occur.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 624 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

High pressure will build overhead today resulting in light winds and mainly dry conditions. A few hour period of MVFR cigs are expected this morning at CMX and IWD as lake effect clouds push through along an area of convergence ahead of a wind shift. Winds will be less than 10 kt through the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 343 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

North winds remain mainly 20 kts or less today, backing west by this evening then southwest tonight. Southwest winds increase to 20-30 kts lakewide for Monday ahead of a surface trough with a 40-60% chance for gales to at least 35 kts over the north central and eastern portions of the lake. Opted to hoist a Gale Watch for 15Z Monday through 0Z Tuesday. Winds fall below 20 kts from west to east Monday night, becoming easterly for Tuesday. Expect southerly 5-15 kt winds on Wednesday and 15-25 kts out of the east on Thursday. The next shot for lakewide winds between 20-30 kts holds off until Friday and Saturday; strongest winds over the east half of the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for LSZ263-264-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.