textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain/snow showers will be common today and Thursday, mainly across the west and south-central UP.

- Colder than normal temperatures continue into the weekend. Highs in the 40s to near 50 and lows in the 20s to low 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Afternoon GOES satellite water vapor imagery reveals a well defined vorticity maximum rotating through western Lake Superior at the base of an upper level trough digging across the Northern Great Lakes. Steepening lapse rates in conjunction with dcva have been able to kick off scattered rain showers across the western and central UP. Through the rest of the day, expected shower activity to continue yet become a bit more focused into the south-central. Cant rule out some snow mixing in as low level and surface temps cool towards freezing. Overnight temps fall below freezing save for the immediate lakeshore communities which may hover at 32F. A similar pattern continues tomorrow as a closed upper low slowly meanders eastward through southern Quebec. Weak upper level support and steep lapse rates will support the redevelopment of scattered rain/snow showers, once again largely across the west half of the UP working into the south-central. Overall QPF amounts remain on the lighter side below 0.2" south-central and below 0.1" elsewhere. No snow accumulations are expected though a dusting on grass or elevated surfaces may be present under more persistent snow showers. A few stray showers may linger into Friday, but by then the UP will be placed within the backside of the expansive upper low and building surface high pressure will help deter additional precipitation into the coming weekend.

More widespread precip chances return early next week as medium to long range model guidance hones in on a series of shortwaves rotating around the eastern Canadian trough. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through the rest of the forecast period and potentially further into the first half of May as captured by the latest CPC 8-14 day and 3-4 week outlooks.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 712 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Expect a degradation down into at least MVFR conditions across the terminals tonight as -SHSN move through the U.P. tonight through Thursday morning. As of right now, the HREF brings a 50 to 90% chance for cigs below 1 kft sometime within the period over IWD and CMX (highest over IWD and mainly tonight into Thursday morning); as for SAW, chances for IFR cigs are only up to a 40% chance. That being said, looking at the bias corrected guidance of the NBM, there is only around a 30% chance for IFR conditions at each of the terminals. Should guidance trend the cigs and vis downwards this evening, will amend the TAFs to reflect the better chances for IFR conditions.

Winds still remain fairly light from the NW to N throughout the period (and potentially being calm tonight at the sfc) as weak troughing moves through the region. By Thursday afternoon, expect conditions across the terminals to improve back up to VFR as the - SHSN and associated cloud cover leaves the TAF sites.

MARINE

Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Gusts below 25 kts and waves below 4 ft are expected through the remainder of the work week into the coming weekend under the influence of weak flow aloft and a slackened surface pressure gradient. Long range probabilities for gusts >25 kts remain below 20% into early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.