textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak clipper spreads light snow (generally an inch or less) across the U.P. tonight through early Monday morning.

- Active weather pattern continues into the work week with periodic snowfall trailed by lake effect and temperatures near-normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 909 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery reveals a deep trough digging across the western Great Lakes with two notable embedded shortwaves, one spinning over Lake Huron and another atop Chicago. At the surface, a ~1004mb low is lifting north of Lake Ontario and a building ridge overhead the Plains is supporting 1030 mb high pressure back into the northern Plains. The resulting pressure gradient draped across Lake Superior in breezy northeast flow. Synoptically forced snowfall has largely shunted east with leftover lake effect / lake enhanced snow occuring in Da Yoop, mainly for the n-central highlands of Marquette and Baraga counties, where radar returns reveal orographic lift producing healthy snow showers. Through daybreak, the upper level features phase and kick eastward, diminishing snowfall from west to east as drier air works into the region. Overall, an additional 1-3" of snow is possible, highest in the aforementioned north-central terrain, across the northern tier of the UP, less to the west and south.

Southwest winds increase this afternoon ahead of a weak clipper skirting across Lake Superior, raising daytime highs into the mid to upper 20s. Weak isentropic ascent should be enough to force light snow for much of the UP this evening into early Monday morning, however, falling snow will have to contend with a stout dry air aloft, as indicated by bufkit soundings. Thus, not expecting much in the way of accumulation- an inch at max in the Keweenaw with less elsewhere, should snow even reach the surface.

Ridging over the west coast amplifies this week, supporting persistent northwest flow aloft and a multitude of waves transiting the Great Lakes. Deterministic guidance continues to highlight a more notable pair of shortwave phasing over the Great Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday. A period of widespread precipitation is likely before another embedded wave and cold front quickly descend across Lake Superior Wednesday morning. This period will have to be monitored over the next couple forecast cycles as the combination of strong N-NE winds and heavy lake effect snow may make the morning commute rather hazardous. Looking towards the late week, guidance hints at another clipper low Thursday night into Friday, but spread is high. Persistent troughing and 850 mb temps below -10C suggests periods of lake effect snow on the horizon.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 648 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Snow showers will continue to taper off at Upper Michigan terminals through 15z this morning as gusty north-northwest winds diminish below 10 kt. Lingering IFR or low end MVFR conditions will trend upward to VFR by 18-21z this afternoon, with winds increasing again out of the southwest and gusting to 20-25 kt. A clipper system will bring a chance for light snow showers 00-06z this evening, with cigs trending back down towards MVFR for the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 313 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

A tight pressure gradient across Lake Superior this morning is supporting elevated winds 20-30 kts, mainly for the central lake. High pressure briefly extending overhead today tapers north to northwest winds to around 20 kts or less from west to east into the afternoon, settling significant wave heights to around 4 ft. Winds back out of southwest this evening, quickly increasing ahead of the next disturbance to 20-30 kts, mainly over the west half of the lake.

West winds gradually settle to 15-25 kts on Monday, backing southerly Monday night into Tuesday as a stronger low approaches from the northwest. This deeper low tracks just north of the lake on Tuesday. A colder airmass and strong pressure rises on the back side of the low supporting northerly 25-30 kt winds Tuesday night into Wednesday with 35-40 kt gales likely over the central and eastern lake (60-90% chance). Guidance trends have supported an increase in Storm force gusts to 50 kts for the central lake (20-40% chance). Heavy freezing spray is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday as significant wave heights once again build to 8-12 ft. Winds may briefly approach 20 kts Thursday morning, however additional systems from the northwest keep winds elevated (20-30 kts) into the weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.