textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake effect snow develops in the NW wind snow belts today, gradually winding down Tuesday.

- Confidence is growing that a widespread light to moderate snow and stronger wind event will move through Upper Michigan Thursday night into Friday.

- Near normal temperatures are favored throughout the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Guidance continues to suggest the pattern across Canada and CONUS for the this forecast period will include large scale ridging building up the west coast and Rocky Mountains, with broad troughing fluctuating across eastern CONUS. This pattern favors average northwest flow aloft into the Great Lakes, providing surface troughs and clippers a road to drive through the region throughout the week.

One such passing wave, currently analyzed right over the central UP, has allowed light snow to spread across the UP tonight. Snow is already largely tapering off over the western UP behind the front, but NW winds behind the front are already helping to kick off lingering lake effect in those associated snow belts. The rest of tonight, expect additional snow totals below an inch for most of the UP, with higher totals near/in excess of an inch over the snow belts in the western UP. With colder air surging into the area behind the front later this morning into the afternoon, chances for lake effect persist the rest of today into tonight. The best chances will be over the eastern UP, given the long fetch off of Superior and questionable available moisture in the western UP. Additional snow totals of up to 1-3in are possible today through tonight, highest in the snow belts of the eastern UP (generally along and north of M- 28). Otherwise, after temperatures bottom out in the lower/mid teens in the west and lower/mid 20s in the east, they shouldn't rise much into by the afternoon as that colder airmass works in. Temperatures turn much colder again by the early hours of Tuesday, with most of the UP in the single digits above zero and the typically cooler interior-west possibly falling below zero.

A surface high drops into the Northern Plains Tuesday. Positional differences and modeled ice coverage continue to add uncertainty to when lake effect downwind of Lake Superior ends, but guidance does continue to favor lingering LES at least into the eastern UP through Tuesday afternoon. Have replicated this with continued PoPs through the Tuesday evening, with activity largely diminishing Tuesday morning in the west and through the day or Tuesday evening in the east. Overall, lake effect will be light, on the order of an 0.5 to 1 inch per 6 hours in the heaviest showers.

A weak and mostly dry shortwave and surface trough looks to quickly through the region Wednesday into the evening. This is then followed by a more organized clipper low moving through Ontario Thursday and Friday. Global ensemble suites continue to favor a low track from far northern Manitoba early Thursday to near James Bay Thursday night. 850mb airmass ahead of the low has also trended a little warmer, with guidance now trending toward warming to -6C or warmer, which could translate to warming above freezing Thursday. Latest GEFS and EC ensemble both suggests this probability ranges from 10 across the east to ~50% in the west. There are also suggestions that above freezing temperatures could linger into Thursday night. Despite this northward trend with the surface low, strong winds are still anticipated with the low or the frontal passage in our forecast area. This is thanks to continued representation of at least a 1030mb high moving south through western Ontario Friday and strong cold air advection behind the trough. This continues the consensus of a 25-35 mph wind event, with gusts to 40 or higher most likely by the Lake Superior Lakeshores and north of Houghton in the Keweenaw Friday (~30% chance at the moment per latest NBM). Total snow amounts continue to be uncertain given the uncertainty in the track, but overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest only a 10- 40% chance of eclipsing 3 inches in 24 hours. Given the combination of light snow, increasing cold air, and the stronger winds, blowing snow may be a concern Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 654 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

NW wind lake effect snow will be most prevalent at CMX this morning. Nonetheless, the MVFR cigs will be slow to clear out at all TAFs. MVFR will prevail at IWD and CMX with periodic IFR at times. Meanwhile, SAW will trend more toward VFR with periods of MVFR through this TAF period. Meanwhile, northwesterly winds will become breezy at CMX with gusts up to 25 kts by mid-morning.

MARINE

Issued at 337 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Guidance continues to promote a consensus ideal of the coming pattern, with continued shots of cold air and troughs, preceded by periods of southerly stronger winds. A trough currently tracking right over the lake is shifting winds over to the NW from west to east early this morning. Winds gust to around 20-25kts in the western arm of the lake through the morning, but pick up to around 25-30kts over the central and eastern portions by mid-morning. After these winds lighten tonight into Tuesday morning, expecting light winds mainly below 20kts through at least Wednesday night. Then, winds pick up Thursday ahead of the next system. This system continues to look like a low end gale and heavy freezing spray event between Thursday night and early Saturday morning.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.