textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures today give way to above normal temperatures and humid conditions this weekend through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Satellite imagery is showing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across Upper MI early this morning as high pressure continues to break down over the Central CONUS and moves overhead later today. Because of this, as well as the radiational cooling that is ongoing before dawn, we could see some patchy fog develop across much of the U.P. this morning before evaporating away a couple of hours after sunrise; should the fog form, drivers should use extra caution and keep their low-beam headlights on in the fog banks. Expect really pleasant weather today as mostly sunny skies allow us to return into the 70s for a high. One thing worth noting though is that some CAMs and even medium range guidance hint at a backdoor cold front potentially bringing light rain showers to the area throughout the day today, even despite the high pressure overhead. Yet given that unstable layer will be limited to the boundary layer, thinking sprinkle/light rain shower chances will only be around 10 to 20% across most of the area, although maybe some lake breeze assistance from Lake Superior and Lake Michigan do increase chances closer to ~25% near the Alger/Delta County line this afternoon. Expect calm weather tonight as well, as lows drop back down into the 40s in the interior to the 50s along the Great Lakes.

Expect a more active pattern as well as warmer and more humid conditions to return to the Yoop this weekend into next week as troughing builds into the western CONUS. With high pressure looking to retreat into the Southeastern U.S. until late next week, this should line us up with at least a couple of shortwave lows that bring showers and storms back across our area, the first of which looks to come on Saturday. While kinematic support is there for multiple waves of showers and storms to cross the area this weekend into early next week, thankfully the thermodynamics needed for severe weather appear to be limited as medium range model guidance is forecasting low MUCAPE during the shortwave passages. While not guaranteed, some additional good news is that some heavy rainfall could occur at times in the convection, hopefully bringing some much needed respite from the drought conditions over the area (especially over the west where Extreme Drought is now being seen).

Moving into the mid to late week, rain chances decrease as high pressure ridging starts to build back up over the central CONUS. Thus, while we can expect to see temperatures remaining above normal and humid conditions continuing, rain chances are looking low (30% or less) for the mid to late week period next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 700 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions continue today through tonight, save for potentially some FG developing at SAW late tonight (around a 20% chance for LIFR or worse conditions). Otherwise, expect light winds driven by the Lake Superior lake breeze this afternoon, with sfc flow becoming calm by the overnight hours once again.

MARINE

Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less continue through today and Saturday before NE winds of 20 to 25 kts return to the western third of the lake on Sunday as a shortwave low moves through the area. While there is a slight (~20%) chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, the better thunderstorm chances look to arrive on Sunday as they increase up to 20 to 30%. As a warm front moves in on Monday, expect some SE winds to blow up to 20 to 25 knots across the central lake as showers and thunderstorms return once again. As winds turn SW'rly Monday night into Tuesday, expect them to drop down to 20 kts or less again before rising to 20 to 25 kts over the west half (mainly between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw) later in the day on Tuesday.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Light winds of 15 kts or less continues today before an incoming shortwave on Saturday increases S to SW'rly winds to 15 to 25 kts, with a slight (~20%) chance of thunderstorms occurring in the afternoon. While winds weaken to below 15 kts Saturday night, they restrengthen to around 15 kts from the S on Sunday as another shortwave rolls through and brings rain shower and thunderstorm chances back across the area (20 to 25% chance for thunderstorms). After dwindling below 15 kts once again Sunday night, a warm front pushing in brings S'rly winds of 15 to 20 kts back in on Monday, with thunderstorm chances returning. Winds drop below 15 kts and thunderstorm chances end yet again on Monday night. However, some SW'rly gusts up to 15 kts could be seen close to Manistique Tuesday afternoon.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.