textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak clipper system will bring another round of light snow to much of the area today, but expected snowfall amounts will only be around an inch or less in most locations.

- After a mild day on Friday, a strong cold front on Friday night will bring much colder air back into the area along with a period of strong winds, particularly over the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior, where there is a 50-80% probability of wind gusts exceeding 45 miles per hour Friday afternoon into Friday night. There is a 50% chance of wind gusts exceeding 60 mph in the Keweenaw, where a High Wind Watch has been issued. Areas of blowing snow may restrict visibility in open areas.

- Seasonably cold temperatures are expected this weekend with highs in the teens and lows in the negative single digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Broad troughing encompasses most of the CONUS early this morning, with one branch of the jet from the Intermountain West into the southern Plains to the mid-Atlantic, and another from the Canadian Rockies to the northern Plains. The latter feature will continue digging into the Great Lakes today, with poleward exit region dynamics and modest isentropic lift provide forcing for ascent today. Overall limited moisture and short duration of forcing should limit accumulations to around an inch or less, although there is a brief period where forecast soundings have modest lift within the DGZ. 90 percentile snowfall is generally 2" or less of the NBM, so totals should be fairly negligible compared to what we've seen over the past couple of weeks. Onset time looks to be 12-18Z from west to east.

A stronger WNW jet max emerges off the Canadian Rockies tonight/Friday with a compact, vigorous vort max going negatively tilted over central Ontario Friday. The surface reflection of this wave is forecast to be down in the mid/lower 980s (mb). Although it will be well to the north, the resulting wind field will advect warmer air into the region on Friday, with highs ranging from the upper 30s east to mid-40s west. This warm spell will be short lived as a strong cold front will cross the UP Friday afternoon into Friday night. Strong winds will be the main threat with this frontal passage, as forecast soundings suggest dry air at low levels negating precipitation potential. These soundings also show very impressive mixing heights as cold advection aloft steepens lapse rates, as high as 700 mb from the 00Z NAM at CMX (this is likely overdone, but the GFS still mixes up to 800 mb). This means that the mixing should have no trouble tapping into 35-50 kt winds at 925 mb. 925 mb winds of 45-50 kt over the Keweenaw on the 00Z LREF are at 99 percentile of climatology here. On the CAM side, the 00Z HRRR does have an area of 50kt wind gusts over the Keweenaw Friday afternoon and evening. With all those factors in mind, there is enough confidence for a High Wind Watch for the Keweenaw for the potential of 50 kt wind gusts Friday afternoon into the evening. The core of the strongest winds will be in roughly the north half of the UP, so that should confine the potential for advisory-level (40 kt) gusts outside of the Keweenaw to the Lake Superior shoreline, but the deep mixing should result in widespread 30-40 mph gusts over most of the UP. This could result in visibility issues due to blowing snow in open areas, however there is uncertainty if the mild temperatures will render the snow less blowable.

The other story with this frontal passage will be the rapidly plummeting temperatures. After highs in the 30s and 40s Friday, lows Friday night will be in the single digits and teens, with wind chills 0 to minus 10. 850 mb temps bottom out at -20 to -25 over the weekend, which is in the 5 to 10 percentile per the LREF. While the probability of reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria is low, we can expect highs in the teens and lows in the negative single digits over the weekend. Saturday night looks good for radiational cooling, with up to a 40% chance of lows below -10F over the interior. Some light lake effect snow in the NW belts is also expected, with negligible amounts. A modest warming trend is forecast for early next week, with low probability of impactful weather at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 558 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Light snowfall moves over the terminals today as a weak shortwave low traverses the region. Expect conditions to deteriorate to IFR/MVFR over the terminals during most of the daylight hours today thanks to the light snowfall, before improving to MVFR/VFR after the snowfall ends this evening (improvement to VFR for SAW this evening will depend on whether the clouds scatter out or not).

While not expected, there is the potential for some LLWS to develop over the terminals late tonight/early Friday morning as a LLJ begins to push into the Upper Midwest and U.P.

MARINE

Issued at 212 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

After fairly light winds through tonight, southwesterly winds will increase through the day Friday, with a high probability of gales developing over the entire lake Friday afternoon into Friday night. As winds shift westerly and colder air arrives behind a cold front tied to a strong low crossing Ontario, strong winds will mix down, with a 30-50% probability of storm force gusts Friday afternoon into Friday night for the central and eastern portions of the lake. A Storm Watch will be issued to address this potential. Heavy freezing spray will also develop Friday night over the entire lake, lasting into Saturday. Winds will fall below gales Saturday afternoon and continue diminishing through Sunday as high pressure builds in.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for MIZ001-003.

Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LSZ162-242-263.

Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for LSZ243>251-264>267.

Lake Michigan... None.