textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures through Wednesday night, between 15 and 25 degrees above seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected through mid-week with rainfall totals topping off in the 0.5 to 2" range through Thursday, greatest amounts west and Keweenaw.

- Lake enhanced to lake effect rain showers expected to continue over the north to northeast wind precipitation belts late this work week. Temperatures closer to normal return late this week.

- A Gale Watch is in effect for most of Lake Superior Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals a deep trough digging into the Plains/Midwest with several embedded shortwaves and a plume of moisture stretching from the Arklatex north into the UP. Analyzed PWATs reveals an area of ~1.5" overhead the UP, which is the actual maximum of NAEFS PWAT climo for this time of year. Isentropic ascent occuring along side this impressive moisture return is forcing widespread stratiform rain this afternoon with a few embedded stronger showers within. Additionally, areas of fog are noted on regional observations. At the surface, a broad area of ~1000-1004 mb low pressure stretches from northern Lake Superior down to northern Missouri, with the lower end found in northern Missouri under the core of an upper level jet. This trough and surface low close off and become more stacked as it slowly lifts north overhead the UP by tomorrow morning, sending additional waves of much needed rainfall overnight. Precipitation becomes more scattered and isolated as the stacked low becomes placed over western Lake Superior and the dry slot is placed over east-central Upper Michigan by Wednesday afternoon. Late Wednesday through Thursday, the stacked low transitions to an open wave as its swept up in troughing descending across northern Ontario. This works to lift the surface low north and east of the UP, allowing deformation driven and lake enhanced precipitation to occur Thursday through early Friday. Strong pressure rises and modest cold air advection aloft will drive NNE gales 35-45 kts over the Lake Superior on Thursday. Wouldn't be surprised to see a transition to snow late Thursday for areas of the interior, though no accumulations are expected. All in all, total precipitation amounts today through Thursday will range from 0.5" (mainly south and east) to upwards of 2" in the west and Keweenaw. Hopefully this help mitigate ongoing drought concerns, especially given warmer and drier than normal conditions return into the weekend and potentially further into the middle of November, per CPC outlooks.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Flight category restrictions continue due to low pressure system centered over northeast MN. With widespread rain returning to the TAF sites, LIFR conditions are still prevailing at SAW and will likely persist for most of the TAF period (hourly probabilities . in excess of 60% for some times). At best, IFR will be the most improvement at SAW for this TAF period (less than 30% chances of MVFR and less than 10% of VFR). Elsewhere, MVFR are briefly prevailing at CMX and IWD, respectively. But those, too, are going to be short-lived as rain intensifies this afternoon. Look for gradual deterioration to IFR with around 30-50% chances of periods of LIFR. And, even wouldn't rule out VLIFR cigs by tonight (10-25%), though will keep ceilings at 300 ft or above for the TAF itself. Meanwhile, winds will generally be southerly with 20 to 25 kt gusts at SAW, with lighter and more variable direction winds at IWD/CMX.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Lake Superior: As surface low pressure slowly lifts into the western UP through Wednesday, NE gusts in the western arm of the lake pick up to 25 kts tonight. A brief lull in 25 kt gusts will occur Wednesday night before picking back up late Wednesday through Thursday. Pressure rises and cold air advection will increase N to NNE winds in the western lake between 35-45 kts Thursday morning as surface troughing departs east, eventually spreading to the central and eastern lake through Thursday afternoon, building significant wave heights upwards of 10 ft. Gale Watches have been hoisted for much of Lake Superior through Thursday. Gales fall off from west to east late Thursday through Friday morning.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Breezy southerlies between 20-25 kts will be the rule through Thursday. A cold front quickly increases NW winds between 25-35 kts late Thursday, remaining elevated 20-25 kts through Friday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for LSZ242>244-263-264.

Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for LSZ245>248-265-266.

Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for LSZ249>251-267.

Lake Michigan... None.