textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly sunny today with slightly warmer temperatures through this weekend.

- A pair of week systems bring chances for showers tonight/early Sunday and again Monday/Monday night. Minimal impacts expected.

- Cooler than normal temperatures expected through much of next week and beyond.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

The upper level trough over eastern Canada which has dominated the weather pattern for the past several days has shifted a bit farther east into western Quebec this morning, allowing surface high pressure to build into the Upper Great Lakes. GOES infrared imagery reveals clear skies over the U.P., allowing temperatures to fall into the 20s across the area overnight save for a few locations along the immediate Lake Superior shoreline. May still see a few spots in the interior west drop into the teens by daybreak. Mostly sunny skies will prevail today beneath high pressure as high temperatures rebound into the upper 40s in the north and the mid 50s in the west and near the WI border, albeit still a few degrees below normal for early May. Expect min RHs to dip to around 25% across the interior west this afternoon, but fire weather risk will remain limited given recent cool weather and light winds generally below 10 mph today.

Precipitation chances have increased late tonight into early Sunday as guidance shows decent agreement on a quick hitting, weak clipper system traversing the area as another piece of shortwave energy drops down the back side of the large scale trough. This will bring some light rain showers from west to east, with model QPF generally limited to a tenth of an inch or less across the area through early Sunday. Could see some snowflakes mix in again towards Sunday morning as temps drop near freezing, but any accumulation would be limited to a dusting on grassy surfaces as we have seen in recent days. The system departs to the east by Sunday afternoon, allowing for another mostly sunny afternoon as temps climb into the 50s along lake Superior and the 60s in the west.

Models have also started to come into better agreement for the next system impacting the area Monday into Monday night and have largely backed off of any solutions advertising potentially heavier precipitation as a surface low is now expected to track well to the north through Ontario and drag a weak cold front across Upper Michigan. This brings rather minimal rainfall amounts limited to another tenth of an inch or so, with NBM probs to exceed a quarter inch in 24 hours only sitting at around 10% across the U.P. through Tuesday morning.

Looking ahead to the rest of next week, medium range ensemble guidance favors below normal temperatures through the period as the eastern Canada trough continues to dominate the upper level pattern. This will bring high temperatures generally in the 40s through the end of next week, perhaps in the low 50s closer to the WI border. Cooler weather looks likely to continue into the middle of the month as depicted by the latest CPC 8-14 day outlook. The precipitation forecast remains on the dry side, though periodic shower activity can probably be expected into next week given the presence of cyclonic flow aloft and steep mid level lapse rates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 735 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

High pressure promotes clear sky VFR conditions across Upper Michigan today, with winds generally remaining below 10 kt. A weak system will bring a chance of showers (PROB30) and lowering cigs spreading from west to east tonight. Expect conditions to remain VFR at the terminals for the most part, but chances for MVFR cigs will increase near the end of the TAF period (09-12z Sun), especially at KCMX.

MARINE

Issued at 405 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Quiet weather persists today as gusts remain below 20 kts and wave heights stay around 1-2 ft. A pair of week systems may bring slightly more unsettled conditions back to the region tonight through Monday, but still generally expect rather benign conditions with winds remaining below 25 kt and wave heights staying in the 1-3 ft range through early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.