textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather expected through much of the workweek.

- Warmer than normal temperatures persist through the end of October.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Early morning RAP analysis and GOES WV imagery show zonal flow across the northern tier of the U.S. A closed low over Hudson Bay is stacked well over a eastward tracking sfc low at 987 mb, draping a cold front across the western UP. With dry air and weak forcing, skies remain mostly clear. The slackening pressure gradient continues to taper off winds through this morning as temps approach the mid 30s to mid 40s.

High pressure takes hold overhead today, yielding calm and quiet weather in the wake of the weak cold front. Temps will be 5-15 F above normal in the mid 50s to mid 60s under few high clouds and plenty of sunshine. While not a deep mixed layer, cold Tds aloft mixing down will yield low RHs in the western UP down into the upper 20s to upper 30s. That said, wind will be quite light (gusts mainly 10 mph or less) preventing elevated wildfire conditions. More favorable radiative cooling tonight yields lows mostly in the upper 20s to 30s. High pressure moves to Quebec for Tuesday, but ridging remains extended overhead yielding similar weather to today. That said, minimum RH will be higher in the 40s and 50s. Temps climb well into the 60s on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Limited moisture and weak forcing suggests cloud cover, but no precip will accompany this front.

From there, high pressure dominates the rest of the work week forecast. Temps remain 5-15 F above normal with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s and lows in the 30s to upper 40s. The next chance (15-30%) comes late weekend as a stronger cold front with better moisture sweeps across the area. Although precip chances are low, breezy southerly winds are likely (50-70% chance) on Saturday, frequently gusting in the 20-30 mph range where downslope flow is favored. A cool down closer to normal is anticipated in the wake of the cold front early next week, but current trends favor above normal temps continuing through the end of the month captured in the CPC 8-14 day outlooks (~65% chance).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 655 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions and winds generally 10 kt or less are forecast for the entire period today. Chances of FG tonight are highest at SAW, but with chances currently at around 20%, have left it out of this TAF issuance.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

High pressure dominates the forecast, keeping winds largely below 20 kts through Friday on both Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan. An exception to this is southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 kts Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front on Lake Superior. A stronger low pressure system tracking to the north of Lake Superior this weekend alongside its stronger cold front bring back a longer period of southerly 20-30 kt winds late Friday through Saturday, veering west for Sunday in the wake of the cold front. Gale probabilities currently are low (~20-30% chance on Lake Superior and less than 10% on Lake Michigan).

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.