textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow will persist for the north to northwest wind snowbelts today. Continued gusty winds may cause blowing and drifting snow, leading to localized reductions in visibility.

- A clipper is set to bring light widespread snow generally less than an inch to the UP this afternoon, reinforcing lake effect snow for the northwest wind snowbelts. The exception could be a quick burst of 3 to 5 inches across northern Houghton County, which will continue to be monitored.

- A prolonged period of lake effect snow through Wednesday over Alger and Luce Counties could support advisory level snow accumulations.

- Colder temperatures are expected into the New Year with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 411 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

RAP/surface analysis still shows a 978 mb low centered over Quebec early this morning, while high pressure continues to expand over the Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This pattern will be indicative of a NNW lake effect snow trend through the short term period. This has been supported by persistent light lake effect snow showers early this morning on the current radar mosaic where light banding streams into Alger County. Even though wind gusts are significantly lower than yesterday morning at this time, they are still gusting into the 20 to 25 mph range. So, blowing and drifting snow can still create visibility restrictions and hazardous driving conditions for the morning commute.

Later today, as the aforementioned Quebec low phases with another shortwave and retrogrades back over James Bay, a weak clipper wave in the flow will rotate around the low. This will help bring a reinforcing surge of cold air at 850 mb, which will spark an uptick in the northwest wind snowbelts. CAMS especially zero in on a band setting up over northern Houghton County, where a quick 3 to 5 inches of snow could accumulate as well as a prolonged period of lake effect snow showers across Alger and Luce Counties through Wednesday. Would not rule out possible Winter Weather Advisory headlines in either of these places with future forecast issuances, but confidence is not high enough to issue at this time.

Guidance is in solid agreement that this pattern persists through the midweek to late week as the aforementioned northeast cutoff low and western US ridging become established. Aside from the snow, chilly NW flow will enable a cooler temperature pattern through the New Year with highs in the teens and occasionally single digits. Low temperatures in the single digits to near zero and breezy winds suggests wind chills below zero at the midnight ball drop Tuesday night. Make sure to bundle UP!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 627 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Mainly MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. MVFR ceilings persist so far with lake clouds and the occasional snow shower moving over the terminals. Late morning through the afternoon, a clipper low brings better chances for light snow across the area with cigs and vis falling to MVFR and IFR. Light snow exits the area tonight but lake effect snow showers will develop and impact the TAF sites, especially CMX and IWD. Lake enhanced/effect snow showers could even bring LIFR conditions to CMX later this evening into tonight, but given the lack of confidence, have simply handled this with a PROB30 group this afternoon when these conditions would be more likely.

MARINE

Issued at 1052 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Northwest winds and waves continue to gradually diminish today, but the lighter winds will be short lived as a reinforcing shot of cold air arrives behind a weak system tonight. This will result in a fairly long period of northwesterly gales of 35-40 knots Wednesday morning into at least Thursday evening. The frigid airmass will also result in heavy freezing spray for this period for most of the lake. Borderline gales to 30-35 kt will continue through the end of the week, and some parts of the eastern half of the lake may have to have gale warnings extended.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Thursday for LSZ241>251- 263>267.

Gale Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday for LSZ244>251-264>267.

Lake Michigan... None.