textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Benign, sunny weather continues through tomorrow with highs near seasonal norms. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday, but no severe weather is expected.

- A warming trend remains on track as high temperatures increase daily through early next week. Highs near or above 90 are becoming more likely from Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Quiet weather is prevailing across Upper Michigan this afternoon with abundant sunshine and just a few fair-weather cumulus clouds. High temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s are widespread with the forecast area under ridging. A few rain showers could skim the far south this afternoon with light reflectivity returns already showing up over northeast WI, but any rain accumulation will be negligible. Tonight, the benign weather will continue with the exception of some patchy fog possibly forming once again near Lake Superior. Drier lower levels, though, should limit coverage in comparison to last night.

So, the main focus of the forecast period continues to be heat as upper level ridging strengthens over the central CONUS through the weekend. Widespread mid to upper 80s are expected by tomorrow with some areas hitting the 90 degree mark by Sunday. Most intense heat is still on track for Monday and Tuesday with NBM guidance showing between 90-100% chance to exceed 90 degrees on Monday and 60-70% chance to exceed 95 degrees in pockets across the interior west and southeast inland. Tuesday, that 60-70% chance of exceeding 95 degrees becomes concentrated over the south-central and southeast. Meanwhile, even though not as humid as the late June heat wave, dew points will still soar into the 60s/low 70s, resulting in some triple digit heat indices across the southeast sector on Monday. Do not expect much reprieve at night, either, with overnight lows in the 60s and 70s from Saturday night through Tuesday night. As a result, headlines for dangerous heat will likely be issued with future forecast issuances for Monday and Tuesday. By midweek, model guidance begins a downwward trend in temperatures as a low pressure system traversing Canada flattens the ridge a bit. Nonetheless, temperatures will still be above normal with highs in the 80s through the extended period.

In tandem with the heat will as usual be some shower and thunderstorm chances during the peak heating of the days. But, chances will be enhanced on Saturday and Sunday due to weak perturbations along the ridge. With limited shear, though, strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. But, any lake breezes that do form could be triggers for convective development.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will persist at all the terminals through the forecast period with high pressure overhead. A few showers and thunderstorms will form along a lake breeze off of Lake Superior this afternoon. There is a 20% chance for SAW to be impacted by one of these showers and thunderstorms. Any showers or thunderstorms will diminish during the evening with loss of daytime heating.

MARINE

Issued at 339 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Light winds of 15 kt or less will prevail into the weekend as Lake Superior remains under the influence of surface high pressure. Meanwhile, patches of dense fog will be possible over portions of the lake through Friday morning, especially across the eastern half. There will, however, be an uptick in winds starting Sunday night as the pressure gradient tightens while a strong low moves along the high pressure ridge. Southwesterly winds will increase to 25-30 kt over the central portions of the lake, persisting through the first half of next week and expanding to include western and eastern portions of the lake as well. Models continue to trend toward a few gale force gusts Monday into Tuesday across the central portions of the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.