textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- General weather pattern supports periodic low-impact precipitation, with high temperatures above freezing for most supporting some slow snowmelt.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Today's conditions mirror yesterday's - afternoon GOES-East imagery shows deteriorating fair-weather cloud cover and the morning snow showers are no longer evident on KMQT radar. RAP analysis shows 500mb ridging over the Rockies and troughing over Hudson Bay, with the surface analysis showing the UP at the saddle point between a 1030mb high over the eastern seaboard, a 1032 mb high over far northwest Ontario/northern Manitoba, a departing 1009 mb low over northern Quebec, and broad 1008 mb troughing in the lee of the Rockies. Today continues a warming trend with some sites already in the 40s and the NBM now calls for highs in the mid 50s for much of the interior west for Wednesday.

Throughout the day Wednesday, a weak surface low will emerge out of North Dakota and reach the area at around 1005 mb. Current hi-res guidance suggests measurable precipitation should be limited to the northern half of the UP with some uncertainty around the precipitation type between rain, freezing rain, and snow. Regardless of which precipitation type wins out, impacts will be low as even the 90th percentile of HREF accumulated snowfall by 00Z Thursday is only 1-2 inches for Keweenaw and Luce counties and less than an inch elsewhere while probabilities of half a tenth of an inch of ice are 15-30% for the Keweenaw and less than 15% elsewhere.

Better PoPs are seen Wednesday night into Thursday as a more compact vort max pushes through the southern tier of central Canada, resulting in a broad surface trough of sub-1004mb low pressure to sweep through the Great Lakes. The timing of the passage of this surface trough occurs in such a way that it will start with rain and then the cool northerly flow in its wake will result in a transition to snow. The ceiling for impacts remains low however as recent global ensembles have trended towards a more rain-like solution. The increased pressure gradient as the low deepens after it departs and high pressure builds over the Plains will lead to some gustier winds to near 30 mph near the shores of Lake Superior by Friday morning, and the cool northerlies will make Friday the coolest day of the week as highs for all except the southern UP remain at or below freezing and the morning lows surrounding Friday are generally in the 10s. Temperatures rebound for the weekend into the beginning of next week as ridging builds in the lee of the Rockies and expansive high pressure will be in the vicinity. Upstream of that, troughing will move into the Rockies by mid next week, and while ensembles are consistent in some signal of low pressure in CO next week, there is little to no agreement on how/when any theoretical CO Low makes it to the Great Lakes. Ensembles do have individual members that give notable snow to such a feature next week, though when considered against the rest of the ensemble, chances are around 15-25 percent of an Advisory-or-better snowfall.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the evening with MVFR/IFR possible at CMX late tonight into Wednesday. A shortwave will move through the area late tonight bringing a chance for mixed precipitation to CMX, including freezing rain, mentioned with PROB30s. For SAW, moist southeast flow off Lake Michigan could bring upslope fog but confidence is low, kept the vsby reduction at MVFR. IWD should remain dry and VFR through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The weather pattern for the next week will be defined by multiple weak disturbances which will each bring wind gusts of around 25 kt, but are 20% or less likely to be strong enough to produce gales. The next weak system brings a brief period of near 25 kt gusts along the US/Canada maritime border Wednesday before calming again in the evening. A stronger system looks to bring gusts of around 30 kt (once again with around 20 percent chances of a few gale force gusts) Thursday and gusty conditions linger into the weekend as the low deepens over Canada while high pressure builds over the Plains. With waves building to 5-9 ft late this week and cool northerly winds behind the system, some moderate freezing spray is expected, though the timing and location may shift depending on how the low tracks through the region.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.