textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A system arriving this morning will bring snow, sleet, and freezing rain through early Friday morning. Expect moderate to potentially major impacts, including hazardous travel, power outages, and tree damage.

- Northeast to east gales up to 40 knots are expected this afternoon into this evening over most of Lake Superior.

- A second system moves through the area Friday night and Saturday, bringing another round of mixed precipitation. Similar impacts are possible.

- More gales are possible over Lake Superior Friday night into Saturday morning, and again Saturday night into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Radar and satellite imagery show a low pressure lifting through the Central Plains this morning. While dry air at around the 850mb level (thanks to a high over northern Quebec) is evaporating precipitation before it gets to the sfc this morning in association with the low, by around sunrise this morning the dry air will be overcome and a wintry mix of snow and sleet will begin to enter into the region from the south. While some of the guidance is still hesitant on the arrival of the precipitation today, waiting in some portions of the U.P. until the early afternoon hours for the precipitation to begin (mainly in the far east from Luce County eastwards and the Keweenaw), some of the CAMs have seemed to ever-so-slightly sped up things, with precipitation coming in around 12 to 13z across most of the area (an hour or two earlier near Wisconsin though). Therefore updated the start time of the Winter Storm Warning for Baraga and Marquette to 8 AM EST while pushing back the start time for the Warning over Ontonagon, Houghton, and Keweenaw counties to 10 AM EST this morning. With frontogenetic and isentropic forcing being quite robust as the warm front of the incoming low arrives, expect the precipitation to become moderate to heavy rather quickly; with PWATs sneaking up to around 1" by the late morning/early afternoon hours, several spots in the interior west and north central could see up to an inch of sleet occur as the robust warm nose fights the dynamic cooling occurring within the atmospheric column. Keeping this fight between the warm air advection from the Gulf and the dynamic cooling from precipitation melting, there may be some times where we see freezing rain change back over to heavy sleet and sleet to heavy snowfall this morning into this afternoon. However, with the warmer air from the Gulf generally winning out, expect temperatures to rise progressively throughout the day today. Overall, expect the highs to get into the 30s across the area today, with the warmest temperatures expected in the south central and east near Lake Michigan as the sfc low passes over the northern portion of the lake. Because of this, we can expect a gradual transition over to the warmer wintry precipitation types and rain today, save for the Keweenaw which may just be all (relatively) wet snow. With that in mind, as well as strong east to northeasterly winds up to 35 to 40 mph blowing throughout today (strongest in the Keweenaw and potentially Menominee County), we may some power outages as the ice accumulates on powerlines and trees with the winds amplifying the stress. In addition, roadways will be slick due to the snow, sleet, and ice; if you can, avoid travel as it will be much easier to get into an accident once the precipitation starts today.

The wrap-around precipitation becomes mostly light snow and freezing rain over the higher elevations of the north central and west this evening, while the warm nose keeps the rest of the area as mostly rainfall until the system moves away Friday morning. With some drier air overhead on Friday, it may be a prudent time to resupply on any food, etc. you may need as another Colorado low looks to lift towards the area. While this second low looks to be a near rinse-and- repeat of what we will experience today, one major difference is that the occlusion of the cold and warm fronts are expected to occur earlier. Thus, warmer air is projected to be overhead when the precipitation begins, decreasing snow and sleet chances and increasing freezing rain and rainfall chances. With guidance looking to keep temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday night across the area (thanks to a sfc high pressure moving through Hudson Bay), expect most of the area to generally start out as freezing rain Friday night; the exception may be near Lake Michigan as temperatures may not quite get to freezing. As the low continues to approach the Straits on Saturday, expect the Gulf-supplied warm nose to bring temperatures above freezing across most of the area by the late morning to early afternoon hours; the exception may be the far west and Keweenaw where more of the cold air may reside. Overall, this second event could be the more impactful one as mostly ice is expected with it; much of the U.P. could see up to a quarter of an inch or more of ice before thinks start to melt mid to late Saturday morning. With fairly strong northeast to east winds also expected Friday night into Saturday morning as well, additional power outages and downed tree branches are possible, not to mention very slick roads making travel dangerous until the above freezing temperatures arrive. In addition, our area may still be recovering from the winter storm moving through today into tonight; the additional ice on top of what we will receive today could exacerbate issues, particularly for the power grid and for tree limb removal. Therefore, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Friday night into Saturday morning. One thing more worth mentioning: the AI guidance is suggesting an even further southeastward trend for the sfc low Saturday; instead of going through the Straits, the AI GEFS and European suites bring the sfc low through Lower Michigan. Should this occur, expect slightly cooler sfc temperatures and thus higher probabilities for snow/sleet and higher ice amounts across the area as the cold air at the sfc could hold on a little longer.

As the backdoor cold front of the second low moves through late Saturday, expect a change back over to snowfall over mainly the northwest wind snow belts. Light to occasionally moderate lake enhanced/effect snowfall could be seen over the northwest wind snow belts Saturday night before high pressure moving in looks to wrap things up on Sunday. Behind this, some light snowfall looks to move through the area Sunday night into Monday as temperatures look to remain below normal. However, behind this Manitoba Mauler shortwave low, expect temperatures to rise closer to normal for the middle of next week, with highs potentially flirting with the 50s near the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain has overspread the UP, deteriorating conditions down to IFR/LIFR. Vis at IWD/CMX holds steady into this evening with a gradually improvement overnight into Friday. Meanwhile, vis at SAW continues to deteriorate into tonight with VLIFR from FZRA/FZFG possible (30% chance). Cigs lower to LIFR (possibly VLIFR at SAW) tonight before seeing improvement to IFR Friday morning. Otherwise easterly winds maintain around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts at CMX begin shifting north this evening into tonight as the low pressure system tracks over northern Lake Michigan.

Lingering precip tapers off early Friday morning in the wake of this system. This reprieve does not last long on Friday as another system approaching from the southwest brings a second round of wintry mix and flight restrictions.

MARINE

Issued at 241 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

East winds around 25 knots early this morning continue increasing from the northeast and east this morning, eventually becoming gales of 35 to 40 knots across most of the lake by early this afternoon as a low pressure approaches the region. With the sfc low moving through northern Lake Michigan this evening, expect the winds to become more northeasterly this evening before weakening behind the low to northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots late tonight into Friday. While winds are looking to weaken close to 20 knots by Friday afternoon, expect another Colorado low to lift towards the Upper Great Lakes Friday and Friday night. Because of this, expect the winds to once again increase from the northeast to east across the lake, mainly from the far west first starting late in the afternoon on Friday; as of now, there is a 40% chance that low-end gales will be seen across the lake late Friday night into Saturday morning. While we may see the winds slacken a little during the day Saturday as the center of the low approaches, once the low lifts through the Straits (or Lower Michigan) Saturday evening, expect winds to back to the northwest and north, with over a 50% chance for low-end gales possible Saturday night into Sunday morning (mainly over the eastern half); some areas of freezing spray may return with the stronger winds Saturday night into Sunday morning. As high pressure ridging returns to the area on Sunday, expect the winds to dial back down to 20 knots or less by the evening hours. That being said, another shortwave low dropping down over the lake Sunday night into Monday morning may bring northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots back across the lake behind it on Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for MIZ001>005-084.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006- 013-014-085.

Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MIZ006-007-012>014-085.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ007.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Friday for MIZ009>011.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MIZ012.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for LSZ162- 263>267.

Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ244-245.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LSZ246-247.

Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ248.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221-248-250.