textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry start to the work week with below normal temperatures.

- A clipper system brings widespread light rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Warmer than normal temperatures are favored by the end of this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Benign weather continues through Monday as high pressure builds in from the west. Scattered showers on radar are courtesy of steepening low level lapse rates underneath an embedded shortwave aloft. Precipitation will be tapering off this evening as diurnal heating ceases. A few hundreths of rain could be observed in the central UP (30-50% chance); any snow in higher terrain will not yield measurable amounts. Temps in the 40s this afternoon descend into the 20s (low 30s by the lakeshores) tonight with favorable radiative cooling setting up. Monday brings similar highs, but warmer temps interior west may push up near 60 (20% chance). Better mixing thanks to clearer skies and high pressure bring RHs into the 20s in the interior, but winds will be light (gusts 15 mph or lower) and temps regardless are too cool for elevated fire weather concerns. Great Lakes breezes are expected in the afternoon with diurnal-cu fields over the central and southeast. Monday night won't be quite as cold with high pressure shifting southeast over the Lower Great Lakes increasing WAA from southerly flow, but still yields lows in the 30s for most. Downslope flow prevents areas in the far west from settling below 40.

A clipper system brings back widespread rain to the UP on Tuesday (>80% chance). Generally looking at system QPF between 0.15 and 0.30 inches, however weak elevated instability aligned with a brief wave of PWATs between 0.75 and 1.00 inches could yield higher amounts up to 0.5 inches (~33% chance). A rumble of thunder is possible, but strong to severe storms are not expected as better instability remains south of the UP. Trailing rain showers continue into Wednesday morning under cyclonic flow, but additional accumulations will be less than 0.1 inch per 6 hour period Tuesday night onward. The other impact anticipated with this system is breezy southerly winds gusting between 20-30 mph on Tuesday as strong WAA lines up with a strengthening LLJ.

Late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night look dry as the mid level ridge over the Plains moves east, bringing surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region with it. From there a shift in the large scale pattern is expected, however guidance struggles to agree on how this exactly pans out into this weekend. Generally expecting a shift to quazi-zonal flow over the CONUS with periodic shortwave troughs tracking east across it. This supports low precip chances (generally 15-30%) next weekend and warming trend as the high pressure gives way to the east. Current forecast reflects highs warming into the upper 50s and 60s Thursday onward; there is a 25% chance for reaching low 70s interior west. Lows will be in the 40s to low 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 716 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR prevails through the forecast period. Scattered to broken midlevel clouds over the UP this evening will give way to mostly clear skies tonight into Monday, with light winds generally out of the NW.

MARINE

Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Winds remain 20 kts or less through Monday night as high pressure continues building in from the northwest. A clipper low descending over the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday increases south to southeast winds across the lake with 20-30 kt winds over the east. There is a 10-30% chance for gales to 35 kts near Stannard Rock Tuesday afternoon, however warmer air over the cold lake surface will limit stronger winds from mixing down. As this system continues over the region into Tuesday night, winds quickly become northwest/north. There is a 10-20% chance for gales to 35 kts near the southern waters between Big Bay and Munising mid day Wednesday.

Behind this system, high pressure briefly returns for Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing winds to fall back below 20 kts from west to east by late Wednesday night. This weekend brings the next chances for winds exceeding 20 kts, however details remain blurry due to quickly diverging model guidance.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.