textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for precipitation exist this weekend and the coming week. Thunderstorms will be possible at times, but severe weather is not expected.

- Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend and coming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Scattered rain showers have been observed late this past evening into the overnight hours across western Upper Michigan, thanks to weak forcing rotating around a closed upper level low well to our north. Observed rainfall has been light and allowed places like Ironwood and Houghton airports to cool quickly into the low 50s while the rest of the forecast area sat in the mid to upper 50s to low 60s. For the remainder of the night, these showers may continue to press east or southeast. An upstream wave supporting light rain in Minnesota will also rotate into the region by morning, potentially kicking off additional showers across central Upper Michigan that may linger into the early afternoon, per the latest HRRR. Temperatures should cool into the low 50s to mid 40s overnight, especially if we are able to see breaks in the cloud cover. Today, the aforementioned upstream shortwave will rotate through, followed by clearing skies. Daytime temperatures look to peak in the low to mid 60s south and west and mid to upper 60s north and east. These daytime highs will warm into the mid 60s to low to mid 70s for a majority of the coming week. Overnight lows in the 40s will be widespread away from the lakeshores.

Another weak wave may rotate through the forecast area late Sunday night, but uncertainty is high. If it does, light rain showers may be realized after midnight into the Monday morning hours. Otherwise, forcing from this wave and afternoon lake breezes, alongside increasing instability thanks to daytime heating, may support showers/thunderstorm activity coverage increasing by afternoon into the evening hours. Mid-level forcing increases as this feature rotates southeast into Wisconsin, allowing a more organized surface low to develop over the northeastern portion of the state by Tuesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature will again support shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The next wave dives into the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. Latest deterministics continue to suggest the greatest forcing for ascent will be positioned to our south. Latest EC and Canadian ensemble systems suggests a 10-30% chance for greater than an inch of rain with this system, with much higher probabilities further south. GEFS probabilities are even lower. Broad troughing is expected to continue over central/eastern Canada going into the weekend, suggesting daily rain/thunderstorm chances should be expected at least through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions will initially prevail early at all TAF sites. However, developing cloud bases will result in MVFR at all TAF sites by Sun 09Z. Look for a return to VFR at IWD and CMX by mid-morning, but MVFR could persist into early afternoon at SAW. Meanwhile, west- northwesterly winds will consistently remain strong with sustained speeds up to 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts throughout the TAF period at CMX, while IWD and SAW currently go through a brief lull in winds early this morning. Expect an uptick at both of those sites as well, though, later this morning.

MARINE

Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Elevated winds of 20-25kts will be possible tonight and into Sunday evening form the west or northwest. These winds may lighten for a few hours tonight. Southwest winds by Monday morning in the vicinity of the Keweenaw, especially between the peninsula and Isle Royale, will increase to 25-30kts. Current thinking is for these to settle by evening below 20kts lake-wide through at least mid-Thursday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.