textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather expected this weekend and beyond as temperatures rebound to unseasonably warm values (upper 40s/low 50s) by early next week.

- Next chances for precipitation arrive late Wednesday/early Thursday, with 20-40% chance of 0.10" of rain by late Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

RAP surface analysis this afternoon shows sprawling high pressure from the Lower Mississippi River Valley reaching north to Hudson Bay. The tight E-W pressure gradient which instigated this past week's LES is shown departing the region as the overhead pattern becomes increasingly barotropic. Visible satellite imagery shows lingering lake effect clouds over the eastern half of the UP, with the west under nearly clear skies; temperatures currently sit in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Aloft, the mid- levels show a skinny omega pattern across CONUS, with a wedge of high pressure building northward through the Plains. Water vapor imagery shows an area of deep subsidence pressing downward into the Upper Great Lakes.

As the high progresses slowly eastward, northerly surface flow and CAA persists into tonight as we remain on the leeward side of the high's anticyclonic flow. Winds back to southwesterly throughout tomorrow, and temperatures in the meantime remain relatively close to normal. Cloud cover today and tomorrow contributes to highs 5-10F above normal in the 40s today and tomorrow, while overnight lows through Sunday land 0-10F above normal in the 20s and low 30s both nights. With the change in wind direction, lake effect clouds diminish Sunday afternoon, and temperatures rebound to the 50s (15- 20F above normal) Monday through Wednesday. While this is somewhat highlighted by the current run of the ECMWF's EFI table for this time period, the NBM currently shows greater than 95% probability of MaxT >50F for Tuesday and Wednesday (same for >48F for Monday). This warm-up is accompanied by clear skies and dry weather through Tuesday, though clouds increase once again starting Wednesday.

Next chances for precipitation arrive late Wednesday into Thursday as a Colorado low lifts out of the Plains. As of now, broad agreement exists amongst ensembles that some precipitation will occur throughout Thursday, though current guidance indicates it's unlikely to be very impactful as LREF 24-hour precipitation distributions range from 0" to 0.15" for this system. As far as p- type goes, ensembles also agree that rain is most likely to fall Thursday. This is in alignment with anomalously high temperatures forecast for the late week period, supported by EFI SoT values of ~0.77 for minimum temperatures Wednesday through Friday nights, lending weight to above-freezing conditions these nights. Details will continue to emerge and solidify in the meantime.

Into next weekend, a second, deeper Colorado low brings higher chances of widespread precipitation. This one is literally and figuratively all over the map, with ensemble members showing decent spread in timing, track, and p-type. For now, they do agree on widespread precipitation Saturday into Sunday, with more likely rain on Saturday and some snow potential on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 130 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery shows persistent lake induced low cloud cover over the central and eastern UP with sunnier skies in the west. This is producing VFR conditions at IWD and predominantly MVFR cigs at CMX and SAW. Current trends do suggest a downward trend in cloud cover along the Keweenaw which may allow CMX to go VFR by later this afternoon, but expect that cloud cover to fill back in tonight. Overnight the flow becomes light and upslope with model soundings showing deep saturation through the boundary layer, approx 3kt AGL. Cigs will fall back to IFR at SAW and potentially CMX. This could also be sufficient for freezing drizzle and or fog to develop at the SAW/CMX tonight but confidence is low (~40% chance) so did not make mention in the TAF at this point. Conditions should improve to VFR at all sites by the end of the period as high pressure continues to build over the region wind winds turn light southerly, generally around 5 kt or less.

MARINE

Issued at 253 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

For Lake Superior, northerlies continue to diminish into the evening as high pressure moves in. For the nearshore zones between Marquette and Munising, wave heights decrease from 5 ft at the time of this writing to less than 1 ft by tomorrow afternoon. The Small Craft Advisories currently in effect drop off by this evening. Winds lay down to less than 10 kts overnight, and flow backs to southwesterly throughout the day tomorrow. Southwesterlies pick up Sunday evening as the high starts to collapse southeastward, increasing to 20 kt sustained and gusts at 25-30 kt with waves achieving 4-6 ft by Monday morning in the western offshore regions of the lake. Elevated winds continue through Monday, and funneling between Thunder Bay, Ontario and Isle Royale may lead to gusts to 35 kt (50% chance) late in the day. Southwesterly flow of 20-25 kt sustained with gusts to 30 kt and waves 5-7 ft in the western lake continue through much of Tuesday. In the eastern lake, southwesterly winds at 15 kt sustained and gusts to 25 kt with waves to 2-4 ft continue Monday into Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, flow backs to south-southwesterly and continues at much the same magnitude (sustained 20 kt and gusts to 25 kt with waves 3-5 ft), with some brief periods of slightly lowered winds. Friday, winds diminish to less than 10 kts lake-wide and waves decrease to less than 3 ft.

For northern Lake Michigan and the Bay of Green Bay, winds diminish tonight and remain <10 kt with waves <1 ft until Monday morning. Southwesterly flow builds in Monday and remains elevated through Thursday. Waves build to 2-4 ft in the Bay of Green Bay and 3-5 ft in Lake Michigan by early Tuesday, thanks to sustained 20-kt winds and gusts to 25 kt. Winds lay down slightly Wednesday morning (10-15 kt sustained with gusts to 20 kt), but pick up again to 20kt sustained with gusts 25-30 kt later in the day. Meanwhile, waves remain at 2-4 ft in the Bay of Green Bay to and increase from 4-6 ft Wednesday morning to 5-7 ft late Wednesday in northern Lake Michigan. Similar conditions persist Thursday before laying down overnight to less than 10 kts with waves less than 1 ft on the Bay of Green Bay and less than 2 ft in northern Lake Michigan by Friday morning. Calm conditions persist throughout Friday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.