textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Mixed precipitation, mainly of rain and snow, spreads west to east across the the UP through this morning, changing over to lake effect snow in the NW wind snow belts by this evening.

- Localized pockets of freezing rain may lead to a light glaze of ice on roadways through mid morning. This is most likely across the central UP.

- A secondary cold front will reinvigorate heavy lake effect snow and northerly wind gusts upwards of 40-50 mph tonight through early Wednesday morning. Blowing snow will create areas of very low visibility contributing to hazardous travel conditions tonight into the Wednesday morning commute. Interested parties should continue to monitor the forecast!

- Winter Weather Advisories are remain effect for Menominee and Delta counties this morning for the risk of freezing rain, and across the western and north-central UP for lake effect snow tonight into Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 502 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery reveals a weak disturbance moving into the Upper Great Lakes at the base of a large scale trough extending from the Hudson Bay region into northwestern Ontario. Radar imagery depicts plenty of echos moving over the UP and Lake Superior, however very little precipitation has actually been reported reaching the ground overnight all the way back into northern Minnesota, owing to a hefty dry layer that first needed to be overcome in the mid levels of the atmosphere. As such, light precipitation has only just begun to fall across the western UP where temperatures are running well into the 30s in many locations. We are thus running out of time to see any meaningful freezing rain mix in this morning as the column is just beginning to sufficiently moisten while surface temperatures hover near or just below freezing across much of the central UP. Nonetheless, could still see a light glaze develop on surfaces across parts of the central UP over the next few hours before those surface temps climb up above freezing. Have left the Winter Weather Advisory in place for Delta and Menominee Counties for now as HREF still paints around a 40% chance for measurable freezing rain through about 8 AM EST, but may still cancel that headline later on this morning based on observational trends over the next couple hours. Otherwise, will just see a mainly light rain/snow mix work west to east across the UP through early this afternoon, with any snow amounts generally remaining below an inch.

Precipitation will quickly transition to lake effect snow this evening as colder air works into the region behind the initial wave. A more notable shortwave then quickly dives south across Lake Superior tonight into Wednesday morning and helps to amplify the large scale trough, ramping up snow across the north-northwest wind snowbelts as 850 mb temps plummet from -5 to -7C this evening to as low as -20C by 12z Wednesday. Ample lake induced lift through a saturated 2-4kft deep DGZ should allow 0.5-1"/hour snowfall rates to develop. A general 3-6" of snow is still looking likely over the N and NW wind snow belts by early Wednesday (60-80% chance), but guidance does point to a potential for totals in excess of 6" over the higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties (around 50% chance). Strong pressure rises on the order of 1-2 mb/hr in conjunction with a 35-45 kt LLJ quickly dropping across the lake will produce strong northerly winds upwards of 40-50 mph along the lakeshores before and during the morning commute hours Wednesday, creating blowing snow and areas of near very low visibility. Travel during this timeframe could be potentially hazardous. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the western and north-central UP and have also been extended east into Alger County tonight through Wednesday morning for the potential for impactful winter weather through the morning commute.

Lake effect snow tapers off later Wednesday as much drier air works in and inversion heights lower. After a brief dry period Thursday, additional clipper waves move through Friday into the weekend - the first on Friday potentially becoming rather deep as it tracks across the Great Lakes. That said, certainty on track, timing, and strength deteriorates as models continue to diverge significantly by the end of the work week. What can be said? We are looking at a return to below-average temperatures for most of the remainder of the forecast period (Friday being the exception ahead of the clipper), with rounds of chances for synoptically-forced snow followed by trailing lake effect.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 639 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Deteriorating conditions have finally picked up at all sites this morning as midlevel dry air is becoming saturated, allowing precipitation to reach the ground. What precip reaches the surface is still in question. Reports of both -shra and -sn have been seen at IWD, while CMX has only seen snow. Within the next hour, SAW will see the mixed precipitation falling at our office here just upstream. A brief break might be seen at all sites this afternoon as this initial round of precip kicks east and transitions to lake effect snow for the N to NW wind snowbelts. Once this occurs, IFR to LIFR cigs/vis are likely at IWD and CMX. Around 00z tonight, a sharp cold front drops south across Lake Superior, reinvigorating lake effect snow for the N wind snowbelts. With this frontal passage, heavy LES and winds gusting upwards of 40-50 mph will be seen at all sites. BLSN and localized blizzard conditions will be possible from 00z through at least 12z.

MARINE

Issued at 502 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Southwest winds pick up to around 20-25 kt across Lake Superior this morning ahead of a surface low that will deepen to around 987 mb as it passes north of the lake across northern Ontario this evening. Cold air advection will increase west to northwest winds 25-30 kts this afternoon, with a secondary cold front then quickly diving south across the lake tonight, sharply veering winds to the north while producing Gales 35-45 kts. Have thus upgraded existing Gale Watches to Warnings across all of Lake Superior beginning this evening. There remains about a 20-50% chance for Storm force gusts of 50 kts across central Lake Superior Wednesday morning, and will continue to monitor that potential. Heavy freezing spray will be common as temps fall into the teens, and have thus issued those headlines as well. Significant wave heights are expected to build between 10-15 ft across the entire central 2/3rds of the lake by Wednesday morning, with up to 12-18 ft possible north of a line from Marquette to Pictured Rocks. High pressure building into the Upper Great Lakes will being to taper down winds through Wednesday evening. Winds briefly fall back below 20kts from west to east into Thursday, but then additional clipper waves moving through will keep winds above 20kts for the remainder of the forecast period.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for MIZ001>003-009.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ004>006.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ012-013.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Wednesday for LSZ162-240-241.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Wednesday for LSZ162-240>242.

Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ242>244-263-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ243>248-264-265.

Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ245>249-265-266.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ249-250-266.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ250-251-267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ251-267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ263.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ221-250.