textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Daytime highs rebound well above freezing early this week, supporting gradual snowmelt across the U.P.

- Thunderstorms (southern UP) and widespread rainfall is becoming increasingly likely late Monday and Tuesday. Freezing rain chances are also increasing in the northwestern portions of the U.P. for Monday night into Tuesday morning too.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Returns from the KMQT radar this morning are showing no precipitation across the area, and satellite imagery corroborates this by showing mostly clear skies overhead thanks to high pressure ridging passing through the region. While warm air advection is still occurring aloft behind the Clipper impulse that passed us yesterday afternoon, the mostly clear skies before dawn this morning have allowed temperatures across most of the area to drop down to at least freezing, with some spots in the interior dropping into the lower 20s; don't be surprised if some spots in the interior west and central drop down into the teens before the sun rises this morning.

After sunrise today, expect the warm air advection aloft and partly cloudy skies to allow temperatures at the sfc to soar into the 40s in the Keweenaw and east half to the 50s and potentially 60s in the central and west by this afternoon. While the (seasonably) very warm temperatures and high sun angle will aid in melting the snowpack once more, with dewpoints projected to only get to around freezing to maybe the mid-30s, expect the snowmelt today to be somewhat limited, especially since temperatures look to fall down to below freezing across most of the area once again tonight. Temperatures currently don't look to be as warm on Monday as they will be today thanks to warm frontogenesis beginning to bring cloud cover over the area via a Clipper low over the Northern Plains phasing with a Colorado shortwave lifting over the Central Plains. Nevertheless, expect highs in the 40s to lower 50s across the area on Monday, and thus additional snowmelt. With the above normal temperatures seen early this week, as well as temperatures dropping back down to at least or around freezing each night, expect the gradual snowmelt to continue increasing river levels across the U.P., even if at a slow pace.

We transition from calm weather today to more active weather late Monday into early Wednesday as the aforementioned lows continue phasing with one another while moving through the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. With the models trending the placement of the warm front and track of the lows slightly further south over the past 24 hours, chances for thunderstorms across the entire area have generally decreased; that being said, convection chances remain about the same over the south central and near Lake Michigan when compared to yesterday morning. Because the placement of the warm front has trended further south, the chances for more wintry precipitation types (i.e. mainly freezing rain, although some snowfall and sleet is possible over the northern half of the Keweenaw) have increased as well. That being said, mostly rain is expected across the U.P. (except for over the Keweenaw), although temperatures will be close to freezing Monday night through Tuesday over the northern half of the area. Expect to see a break in the precipitation sometime Tuesday as the dry slot of the phasing lows passes through the region, although there is a chance portions of the U.P. (such as the Keweenaw) could see precipitation continue throughout the day til even after the cold front passes later in the day (TROWAL). Once the cold front passes, we may see a quick changeover to mixed wintry precipitation before becoming lake enhanced snow showers over the north wind snow belts late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. However, with high pressure building in quickly behind the phasing lows, expect the lake enhanced snowfall to be light, eventually ending by Wednesday.

While calmer weather is expected for Wednesday given the high pressure ridging cresting over the region then, more active weather could be seen later this week as a shortwave over the Southern Plains potentially brings additional precipitation to the region. As of this morning's forecast package, the GFS and Euro deterministic solutions have significantly deviated from yesterday's solutions, bringing cooler temperatures aloft for the latter portions of this week. Because of this, we may see some snowfall occurring across portions of our area around Thursday as the shortwave low lifts into southern Lower Michigan. As this occurs, another shortwave low is expected to cross over the Pacific Northwest and exit the Northern Rockies Thursday night. Depending on dynamic cooling aloft and how this shortwave interacts with another shortwave exiting from the Southern Rockies around that same time period, we could see vastly different precipitation scenarios. Should the low over the Northern Rockies lift earlier over the Northern Plains, expect the cold front of the low to bring convection overtop of us this weekend (this is the GFS solution). If, however, the lows phase with one another and trend into the Central Plains before lifting, we may see a significant early April snowstorm across the U.P. this upcoming weekend. Ultimately, confidence in any solution this far out is very low; that being said, considering the most recent trend in the deterministic medium range guidance, it does seem that temperatures have trended a little cooler and chances for some type of precipitation this upcoming weekend are increasing.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 114 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the TAF period. A period of LLWS is also expected for the first few hours of the TAF period at SAW. There is a low chance (20%) that a brief period of fog could develop around SAW between 09z-12z but widespread fog is not expected. Otherwise expect sct to bkn mid to high level cloudiness through the day.

MARINE

Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue today into Monday as high pressure ridging today gives way to weak zonal flow on Monday. However, as two phasing shortwave lows, the first a Clipper over the Northern Plains and the second a Colorado low lifting through the Central Plains, approach the region later in the day Monday into Tuesday morning, expect the winds to begin picking up from the northeast to east late Monday afternoon, eventually picking up to 20 to 30 knots by Monday evening. With the warm front of the phasing lows practically parked on top of the lake Monday night into Tuesday morning, expect the winds to remain fairly consistent as wintry precipitation occurs (precipitation type depends on where you are at; more snow to the north, mixed in the middle, and mostly rainfall near the southern shoreline). As colder air from Canada starts to advect in behind the cold front on Tuesday, expect the winds to back towards the north, with the NBM showing the winds weakening behind the cold front. That being said, even though the chances for gales have notably decreased since yesterday morning, there is still up to a 20% chance that low-end gales up to 35 knots could be seen Monday night through Tuesday. With the return of the polar air, expect freezing spray to expand across Lake Superior from the north to south from Tuesday through Tuesday night. But with high pressure ridging quickly building back into the area and cresting over the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday, expect the freezing spray to cease and for winds to drop below 20 knots by Wednesday afternoon.

Don't expect the calmer conditions to last all that long, as a shortwave low lifting from the Southern Plains pushes into southern Lower Michigan on Thursday. In addition, another shortwave low moves through the Northern Rockies. Expect this setup to increase winds from the east to 20 to 30 knots across the lake on Thursday, with freezing spray potentially returning to portions of Lake Superior.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.