textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak cold front pushes across the U.P from west to east this evening. A wintry mix of precipitation will accompany the front, with the highest chance (30%) for freezing rain over the west near the WI border, and snow more likely across the central and eastern U.P. Short duration and minimal precipitation amounts will limit impacts.

- Confidence is increasing that two systems could impact the Upper Great Lakes late Thursday and again Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There are questions about when and how these systems will impact the region, so interested parties should keep an eye on future forecasts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Water vapor imagery depicts a weak disturbance embedded in quasi- zonal flow aloft traversing Lower Michigan this afternoon, with any precipitation associated with this feature generally remaining south of the U.P. over Wisconsin and Lower Michigan today. However, a weak cold front extending from a low over northern Ontario is analyzed over western Lake Superior as of mid afternoon, and this feature will bring some light mixed precipitation to Upper Michigan as it pushes east across the area this evening. Model soundings depict a layer of warm air above the surface across the western U.P. and near the Wisconsin border, and as such expect some light freezing rain to occur in these areas along the front through this evening. Some rain may also mix in closer to the border as surface temperatures flirt with 32 degrees through early this evening. Model soundings become more isothermal with eastward extent and mostly hover near/below freezing by later this evening, suggesting precipitation type is more likely to fall as snow by the time the front tracks across the central and eastern U.P. Regardless, short duration of precipitation and meager QPF values below a tenth of an inch will tend to limit impacts through tonight as ice accumulation is limited to a few hundredths of an inch and snow amounts should remain below one inch. Still, can't rule out some slick conditions on untreated surfaces this evening and overnight.

Precipitation clears the eastern U.P. by early Wednesday morning, leaving plenty of low cloud cover and fog in place as surface high pressure builds into the area. Conditions will then gradually improve through the day as drier air works into the lower levels of the atmosphere. Otherwise, expect mostly dry weather as quasi-zonal flow persists through Wednesday and Thursday, with afternoon highs climbing above freezing each day. The next system then approaches the region Thursday night as a low forms in the lee of the Colorado Rockies and tracks rapidly northeastward across Lower Michigan. Recent model runs have shifted a bit further north with the track of this low, thus increasing precipitation chances across particularly central and eastern Upper Michigan. Precipitation type will once again be in question as it currently appears that temperatures will be warm enough to result in rain across the eastern half, at least at the onset, with snow becoming more likely with westward extent. Will also have to watch for patches of freezing rain if surface temps linger below freezing in any areas at the onset of precipitation. All in all, expect the heaviest QPF to fall as rain and be confined along the Lake Michigan shoreline of the U.P. as the system grazes the area to the south, with NBM probs for even 2 inches of snow across the central and western U.P. only in the 10- 25% range through Friday morning. Then expect a lull in precipitation through the day on Friday ahead of the next potential system this weekend.

There is still a fairly large degree of model spread for this weekend as a split flow pattern develops, with a northern stream trough digging out of the Canadian Rockies while a southern stream shortwave ejects out of the Desert Southwest. Where and how these two features ultimately interact will have large implications on the forecast for Upper Michigan. Some model suites remain aggressive in phasing the two waves and spinning up a strong surface low in the vicinity of Lower Michigan, while others continue to advertise a weaker and more detached solution with less interaction. This leaves a number of scenarios on the table for the U.P., ranging from a heavier "system" snow coinciding with strong north winds, vs. more of a lake effect setup if the southern stream system remains separate and farther southeast of the region. The NBM currently depicts around a 40-60% chance for at least 4 inches and closer to a 30-40% chance for at least 6 inches of snow across central and eastern portions of the U.P. Stay tuned to the forecast in the coming days as the details of this weekend's system begin to come into better alignment.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 616 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Low level moisture hangs over the area as a weak cold front skirts through the area tonight. This boundary has already crossed IWD/CMX and is set to cross SAW at roughly the top of the hour (00z). -sn and light fzra may briefly bring down cigs/vis to LIFR or VLIFR. Periods of fog and freezing fog is to continue at all sites through daybreak. LIFR to IFR cigs/vis begin to break up with the return of high pressure and drier conditions tomorrow late morning and afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 338 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

A fairly benign weather pattern will hold through mid to late week and maintain generally westerly breezes below 20 kt and significant wave heights of 1-3 ft across Lake Superior through Thursday. A stronger system moving across Lower Michigan Thursday night will bring a shift to northerly winds and potentially some marginal small craft level conditions to the eastern nearshores into Friday, but probabilities for Gales remain below 20% over the eastern half of the lake through the end of the work week. Models continue to hint at the potential for a stronger system to impact the region over the weekend as another low develops in the vicinity of Lower Michigan, but forecast confidence remains low with respect to placement, timing, and evolution of this feature. Will continue to monitor in the coming days as these details will have large implications for potential Gales and freezing spray over Lake Superior this weekend. The latest NBM depicts a 40-50% chance for northerly Gales developing across central and eastern Lake Superior late Saturday into Sunday, which is reflected in the current forecast.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.