textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak clipper spreads light snow (generally an inch or less) across the U.P. tonight through early Monday morning.

- Active weather pattern continues into the work week with periodic snowfall trailed by lake effect and temperatures near-normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Afternoon water vapor and RAP analysis reveal weak ridging sliding east of the UP ahead of our next weak clipper that is currently dropping into MN. With dry midlevel air over the UP, and winds beginning to shift more to the southwest ahead of the coming wave, we've been able to enjoy some breaks in the cloud cover at times across the western and central UP. The exception is the eastern UP, where winds remain out of the NW, keeping lower lake clouds over the area. This hasn't had much of an impact on temperatures, with most of the area peaking in the mid 20s this afternoon.

Southwest winds increase into the early evening as the clipper drops through the UP. Weak isentropic ascent ahead of it should be enough to force light snow for much of the UP beginning late this evening. However, sufficient moisture is only briefly present in models soundings, so significant snowfall is not looking likely. Most of the UP should pick up an inch or less tonight into Monday morning, with some higher totals up to 1-2in possible in the Keweenaw courtesy of lake enhancement amid westerly flow. Otherwise, expect wind gusts to pick up to around 20-25mph tonight ahead of the wave, quickly falling back into Monday morning apart from around the Keweenaw. There, ~20mph gusts may linger the rest of the day Monday. Otherwise dry and quiet weather is expected for Monday, with temperatures climbing from morning lows in the teens to highs in the lower/mid 30s as skies clear at least partially.

Meanwhile, ridging continues to amplify over the west coast throughout the work week, resulting in persistent NW flow over the Great Lakes that will leave us vulnerable to periodic clipper waves of varying degrees of strength. A first such wave drops through Tuesday, with guidance favoring the associated surface low tracking just north of Lake Superior. WAA ahead of this touches off a first round of widespread precipitation, which per model soundings looks to fall mainly as a sloppy rain/snow mix. Still, a near-surface warm nose presents a risk for some pockets of freezing rain to mix in at the onset. A transition over to lingering lake effect snow is expected into Tuesday evening behind the initial cold front. Then, another, more energetic wave drops through early Wednesday morning, providing a reinforcing shot of CAA (850mb temperatures falling as low as -18 to -20C by 12Z Wednesday). This should prolong our lake effect into the middle of the work week as inversion heights rise to near 5kft. Of note Tuesday night into early Wednesday is a brief window of a deep, saturated DGZ, indicating a potential for some heavy snowfall rates as this secondary front drops through - particularly for the northwest and north wind snow belts. With steep CAA, a tight pressure gradient, and decent mixing into a ~45kt LLJ, blowing snow would also become a concern into the Wednesday morning commute. This remains a system worth monitoring!

After a brief dry period Thursday, additional clipper waves move through Friday into the weekend - though certainty on track and timing quickly deteriorates as models begin to diverge significantly by the end of the work week. What can be said is that we are looking at a period of cooler weather compared to early in the week with on and off potential for snow and trailing lake effect.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1259 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Brief ridging will improve lingering MVFR cigs to VFR at IWD/SAW this evening, however MVFR cigs will prevail at CMX through the 18Z TAF period. A clipper system brings a round of light snow and vis restrictions this evening into tonight. A period of IFR is expected this evening, with a 30-60% chance for LIFR vis at CMX. Trailing lake effect snow and some blowing snow may delay vis improvement at CMX until later in the morning, but maintained MVFR vis for now with low confidence in when improvement will occur. Otherwise, westerly winds back southwest this evening around 10 kts, gradually returning westerly tonight. Expect gusts up to 20-25 kts at IWD/SAW with gusts to 25-30 kts at CMX this evening into tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 359 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Winds turning over to the SW ahead of another shortwave are picking up to 20-25kts already this afternoon, and a brief period of ~35kt gales is expected between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale the first half of tonight ahead of the cold front. Winds turning to the west gradually settle to 15-25 kts on Monday, backing southerly Monday night into Tuesday as a stronger low approaches from the northwest. This deeper low tracks just north of the lake on Tuesday. A colder airmass and strong pressure rises on the back side of the low supporting northerly 25-30 kt winds Tuesday night into Wednesday with 35-40 kt gales likely over the central and eastern lake (60-90% chance). Guidance trends have supported an increase in Storm force gusts to 50 kts for the central lake (20-40% chance). Heavy freezing spray is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday as significant wave heights once again build to 8-12 ft. Gales fall off Wednesday evening, then winds briefly fall below 20kts Thursday before picking up again late in the week as more clipper waves move through.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for LSZ263-264.

Lake Michigan... None.