textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- High impact winter weather is expected over the next several days. An additional 12 inches or so of snowfall is still expected over the inland areas of the Keweenaw, Ontonagon, and Gogebic counties as well as the Michigamme Highlands of Baraga and Marquette counties north of US-41 between now and Thursday evening.

- Blizzard Warnings are in effect for lakeshore adjacent counties of the west and north-central U.P. where high snowfall rates (1+ inch per hour) combined with wind gusts greater than 40 mph will drastically reduce visibility.

- Gales up to 45 kts continue to expand across Lake Superior today and remain until Thursday night. Storm Force Winds to 50 kts are expected across the central lake today. Significant wave heights look to reach up to 15 to 20 ft today into this evening.

- Minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion is possible along the Lake Superior shoreline now through Thanksgiving.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

As the low makes its way through central Upper MI this morning, expect quickly accumulating snowfall of 1+ inches per hour to continue across the western 1/3rd of the UP while rainfall continues across the eastern 2/3rds, save for parts of the central as the low's center moves through the region. With water vapor showing a strong TROWAL over the western third, and the SPC mesoanalysis backing this up with strong 925mb and 850mb frontogenesis over there, snowfall rates of 1+ inches per hour are being realized; looking at webcams, it seem like current snow totals are ranging anywhere from around an inch over the spine of the Keweenaw as of 210am this morning to 6+ inches over by Ironwood (Gile, WI observer sent in a report of 6 inches to NWS DLH at around 210am EST). While the colder air looks to move eastward with time more slowly today than previously expected (for example, snowfall looks to start in the Marquette area now around noon instead of 7 AM as was predicted yesterday), even so, expect snow totals to only be a few inches lower than what was predicted from yesterday morning between 7 AM EST today to 7 PM EST Thanksgiving Day. With most guidance having the low's center arriving near the city of Marquette around 7 AM this morning and hanging around for the rest of the morning hours, this will set up the western third of the U.P. with northeast to north-northeast upslope flow and lake enhancement, not to mention the strong synoptic forcing of the moisture-rich air found in the TROWAL of the low. Thus, we can expect snowfall rates of 1-2+" inches per hour to continue over the western third as cold air advection just behind the low allows very strong winds aloft to mix down to the sfc, bringing gusts as high as 55 mph down at times. This will set up the area for blowing and drifting snow as the snow ratios start to go above 10:1 and into the lower-to-mid teens:1, allowing for whiteout conditions across open areas and near the lakeshores of the western third of the U.P. the rest of this morning into the afternoon hours. As the low starts to finally continue eastward by this afternoon, expect the colder air to finally move over the eastern 2/3rds of the U.P., quickly changing any rainfall over to rapidly accumulating snow. While the TROWAL weakens as the low lifts away from the U.P. today (see the trend in Q-Divergence within the model guidance for some evidence of this), synoptic-scale dynamics as well as upslope and lake enhancement from north to north- northwest winds will allow for snow to accumulate quickly over the north central this afternoon (thinking 1+ inch per hour rates). Eventually, the last of the rainfall in our CWA looks to turn over to lake enhanced snow over the far east by this evening. As the snow ratios quickly soar above 10:1 in the lake enhanced snow areas (especially behind the TROWAL), the blowing snow threat increases as the the cold air advection behind the low will continue to bring strong winds aloft to the sfc tonight through Thanksgiving. In addition, while the synoptic component of the snowfall will be lost from west to east late today through tonight, northwest to north- northwest lake effect snow showers will continue as delta-Ts range up to around 20C and remnant troughing remains across the Upper Great Lakes. Thus, expect blizzard conditions to continue over most of the western third today into tonight, and for the near lakeshore areas of Marquette and Alger counties into Thanksgiving Day; 1/2 to 1+ inch per hour lake effect snowfall rates will also remain possible over the rest of the eastern U.P. and far interior western areas as well (save the south central; not much more than flurries and light snowfall is expected) through Thanksgiving.

As the troughing begins to weaken throughout Thanksgiving Day, expect the lake effect snowfall to slowly dwindle and diminish in intensity the rest of the day through Friday, with some models even ending the lake effect snow showers over the west by Friday evening. However, as it looks like lake effect snow may be wrapping up over the east on Saturday, another shortwave low looks to bring some fluffy, dry snowfall back over the U.P. late this weekend into early next week. While impacts with this system are projected to be lower (if the current track still holds), the shortwave low could bring some accumulating snowfall to the entirety of the U.P., including the south central which is kind of being 'skunked' by this current winter storm. In addition, some lake enhancement and eventually lake effect snow looks possible behind this shortwave early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 717 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Flight restrictions will continue at all TAF sites with mainly airport minimums to LIFR conditions as a winter storm moves through the region. Rain has already transitioned to snow at IWD and CMX, but the transition at SAW will take place after Wed 18Z. This combined with wind gusts of 40 to 50 knots will result in blizzard conditions at times. As the system pushes eastward later today, snow will transition to lake effect snow showers. Nonetheless, do not expect improvement above LIFR until after Thu 10Z despite the infiltration of drier air.

MARINE

Issued at 331 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

A strong early season winter low pressure system is progressively increasing northeast to northerly gales up to 45 knots over the lake early this morning, with northerly Storm Force Winds up to 50 knots developing from time to time over the central lake later this morning and again this afternoon as the low moves over the central U.P. before lifting through the Straits this evening. As strong cold air advection continues in the wake of the low, expect north- northwest to northwest gales to continue across the lake tonight through Thanksgiving, before dwindling down below gales late Thursday night/early Friday morning as the troughing at the sfc diminishes and a very weak ridge tries to move over the Upper Great Lakes; expect the winds to become 20 knots or less again by Friday night as the peak of the weak ridge moves overhead. Overall, could see significant wave heights of 15 to 20 ft across the lake today, with some wave heights getting over 20 ft late this afternoon into this evening over the central/eastern lake (thinking between Marquette and Munising and near Manitou Island). In addition to the winds and waves, some light freezing spray may be seen over the waters late tonight through the Thanksgiving holiday into Thursday night.

Don't expect the light winds to stick around all that long though for this weekend, as another shortwave low lifts from the Southern Plains through the Great Lakes region. Thus, we could see north to northeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots return to the lake Sunday, with a few gales up to 35 knots not being out of the picture either (up to around a 20% chance).

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for MIZ001>004-009.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for MIZ001- 005.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for MIZ002-009.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MIZ003.

Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for MIZ005.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ006.

Blizzard Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ006.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ007-013-014-085.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ007.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for MIZ010-084.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MIZ011- 012.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for LSZ162- 240>242.

Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ243-244-263- 264.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ245>247.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for LSZ248.

Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ249.

Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ250-251-267.

Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ265-266.

Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EST this evening for LSZ265-266.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for LMZ221-248-250.