textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect precipitation winds down tonight, with lows in the 20s expected.

- Dry weather Saturday ahead of a windy Sunday, with gusts in excess of 30 mph possible (30-60% interior, 80+% at the lakeshores). More lake effect rain is possible (up to 60%) Sunday.

- Another low pressure passes north of the region Tuesday, leading to another round of potential gusty winds and lake effect precipitation (~30%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

GOES-East Day Cloud Phase imagery shows only shallow bands of clouds streaming off the Great Lakes now besides some high cirrus. KMQT radar returns continue to trend weaker and with less coverage, but rain showers (and a few snow showers above 1000 ft MSL) are hanging on more than virtually all available model guidance suggested. The 2 inches of snow depth at WFO MQT will linger tonight as temperatures are unlikely to break 40 today (NBM probability >40 around 10%). RAP analysis shows a relaxing pressure gradient as a vertically stacked upper low over the Lower Peninsula supports a weakening 1010mb low over New England while upstream ridging builds a ~1025mb high pressure from northern Ontario down into the Central to Southern Plains. This is helping the winds relax some, especially in the western UP, though the eastern half of the UP still is experiencing a few gusts of 15-30 mph.

As high pressure continues to move over the region to begin the weekend, precipitation ends this evening and skies clear out some tonight, leading to one of the coolest overnight low temperatures of the season (NBM lows in the teens in some locations with 20s elsewhere). Temperatures this weekend warm to the 40s and low 50s, which should melt any remaining snow. Upstream, a shortwave trough will quickly traverse central Canada, arriving in northwestern Ontario around 06Z Sunday. The resulting clipper low and associated synoptic precipitation look to miss all but the furthest eastern UP locations, though sub-freezing 850mb temperatures over lake temperatures around 10 C will reintroduce some lake effect/upslope rain into the forecast, with NBM PoPs of 15%-60% for the east half, depending on proximity to the best low level cyclonic flow. The rapid pressure rises behind the surface low (~4mb/6hr) and cold advection aloft will help mix down some gusty winds aloft to the surface, with Euro ensemble probabilities of 40+ mph gusts Sunday afternoon of 20-45%.

The cycle repeats itself to begin next week. Ridging in the wake of this clipper will result in another dry period with lighter winds late Sunday night through Tuesday morning. The next shortwave in the clipper train looks to arrive Tuesday afternoon, though once again the low looks displaced too far north and too weak to drive synoptic precipitation for the UP but cooler air in the wake of the clipper will bring lake effect precipitation chances (up to 30% per NBM) and gusty wind chances Tuesday (up to 50% chances of 30 mph gusts per Euro ensemble). Ensemble spread and forecast uncertainty increases dramatically late in the week, though the CPC outlooks 6-14 days out prefer a warm and dry pattern.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 614 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Lake clouds continue to bring MVFR ceilings to CMX this evening, while snow showers persist at SAW with IFR restrictions. At IWD, meanwhile, skies have been able to clear our. Expect snow showers to wrap up over the next couple of hours, while drier air working in allows ceilings to lift to VFR at CMX and MVFR at SAW. SAW improves to VFR into the pre-dawn hours. VFR prevails at all terminals for Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 311 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

With approaching high pressure, wind gusts fall below 20 kt tonight and waves fall below 4 ft. The next Clipper Low arrives Sunday, with increasing southwesterly winds Saturday night building to gusts to around 30 kt (with a 20-40% chance of a few gale force gusts) for western Lake Superior, with waves building to 4-8 ft. As the clipper passes Sunday and winds become northwesterly, chances of gales exceed 80% over eastern Lake Superior, though there is some considerable spread in the models as to whether they will be low end gales to 35-40 kt (the REFS ensemble solution) or high end gales to around 45 kt (the Euro ensemble solution). Should the high-end solution pan out, waves over eastern Lake Superior will build to 10- 15 ft, highest north to northeast of Whitefish Point. With the arrival of high pressure again, gales end Sunday night with gusts falling below 20 kt Monday morning. Waves then fall below 4 feet around noon Monday. The cycle repeats into Tuesday with another Clipper but confidence in the details is low at this time (chances of gales around 25%).

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.