textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers continue through tonight, mainly across the eastern UP. 1-3" of additional snow accumulation is expected near Grand Marais.

- Well above normal temperatures settle over the region late this week and coming weekend, with highs above freezing each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery reveals weak shortwave action over the northern Great Lakes as the base of a closed 500 mb trough works through eastern Canada. Chilly NW flow aloft of 850 mb temps -10 to -13C has been sufficient enough to continue light LES showers across the UP tonight. As ridging aloft works into upper Midwest today and sfc high pressure builds overhead, expecting lake effect snow to diminish across the west half, becoming more confined to the east where convergence lingers the longest. Scattered LES will become more banded in the east, taking shape this morning and persisting through at least Thursday morning. Guidance is in fair agreement that snowbands will converge in the Grand Marais area. Despite good convergence, model soundings suggest nothing too exciting with plenty of dry air below the DGZ and lake induced eqs only punching 5-6 kft. With this, additional snowfall accumulation through Thursday morning remain light, only 1-3" in eastern Alger/N Schoolcraft/W Luce.

Beyond Thursday, an unusually warm and quiet stretch of weather is anticipated through the coming weekend and into portions of early next week. Upstream troughing from Alaska down the west coast will force downstream height rises here in the central US, allowing a spring-like warm up to occur with little to no precipitation through the weekend. LREF and NBM guidance suggest 30-50% chances for daytime temps >40F across most of the western half of the UP, moreso closest to the WI stateline, each day from Friday through Tuesday. Deterministic NBM highs of 35-45F put into the forecast are 15-20F degrees above normal for this time, a stark contrast to the past two months. Wouldn't be surprised to see temperatures break 45F this weekend under sunny skies and mid-Feb sun angle. Overnight lows will still be below freezing, only falling to the upper teens and low 20s, which is still 15-25F above normal lows!

Next week, operational models and their ensemble counterparts finally shift troughing into the central CONUS, bringing potentially active weather to the region, however, at this time range there is still a large range of solutions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Lake effect snow showers continue this morning at all sites this morning. There is uncertainty about when shower activity will wane, mainly at KCMX where a Prob30 group was added for potential shower activity into the afternoon. Gusty northwest winds are also expected to lighten through the day. MVFR conditions appear likely to hold at KCMX/KSAW into this evening/overnight hour. At KIWD, high pressure building into the region is expected to provide VFR conditions by afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 342 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Northwest winds have fallen below gale force across the central and eastern UP this morning and will continue to fall steadily through the day, eventually diminishing below 25 kts tonight. High pressure builds overhead through Thursday, ushering in a quiet period of southerly winds below 15 kts lake wide. A weak cold front crosses the Upper Great Lakes early Friday, briefly returning westerly winds 20-30 kts to the central and east. From there, an extended period of quiet weather and light winds below 20 kts is expected through the entire weekend into early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.