textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake effect rain showers continue over mainly the east today with minimal accumulations.

- Cooler/more normal temperatures return for today and Friday.

- Well above normal temperatures expected this weekend. Highs into the 80s are possible Saturday and Sunday.

- Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are possible over western Upper Michigan on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Cooler air from Canada continues to cycle into Upper MI this morning as lake effect rain showers still occur the rest of today over mainly the eastern U.P. While some lightning may be seen at times this morning in a couple of the lake effect showers, expect it to wrap up before noon as the instability in the lowest levels dwindles and high pressure ridging starts to move back into the area late this week. With cooler air over the region now, expect temperatures closer to normal for daytime highs today and even into Friday, only getting into the 50s to mid 60s.

Expect a return to well above normal temperatures this weekend as WAA moves into the region in association with a Clipper low splitting and part of it traveling east along the U.S./Canada border while the other part traverses towards the Desert Southwest. Expect highs on Saturday and Sunday to potentially soar above 80 degrees in the interior areas, with lows only dropping into the 40s and 50s overnight. In addition, with Hurricane Isaias moving through the Southeast U.S. and potentially taking away Gulf moisture from our area, we could see fairly dry conditions which, in conjunction with the strong winds associated with the WAA could bring elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions across portions of western Upper MI on Saturday; fire weather partners and the public should continue to monitor the forecast for fire weather concerns this weekend as ongoing drought conditions will most likely exacerbate the problem.

Rainfall does look to eventually return to the region sometime early to mid next week as wrap-around moisture from a shortwave low and CAA moves overhead; we may see some snowflakes mix in at times if lake effect precipitation occurs. Once the cooler air returns next week, expect temperatures to return back down to around normal for mid-October.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 700 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. West-northwest winds will remain gusty (up to 30kt) at CMX until this evening when the boundary layer will decouple and winds will diminish. For SAW and IWD, gusts will pick up mid-morning with diurnal heating / mixing but will diminish again around sunset. With the daytime heating expect scattered clouds around 5-6kft with just an outside chance (~10%) for a brief rain shower at CMX and SAW.

MARINE

Issued at 159 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Lake Superior: West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 kts (with a few gale force gusts up to 35 kts possible over the south central lake) continue until weakening to 20 kts or less tonight as sfc high pressure ridging begins replacing the cooler air and troughing currently overhead. The lighter winds continue into Friday before robust WAA moving in late Friday into Saturday brings strong southeast to south winds of 20 to 30 kts back across the lake; while not expected, the latest LREF run does bring a 20% chance for gale force gusts up to 35 kts over the lake on Saturday. As sfc high pressure ridging deepens over the area into Sunday, expect the winds to veer and weaken, becoming 20 kts or less by Sunday afternoon. As CAA starts to work into the region from Canada early next week, expect winds to eventually turn northerly as they gust up to 20 to 30 kts, potentially as early as Monday (there is up to a 20% chance for northerly gales up to 35 kts).

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Northwest winds of 15 to 20 kts continue across the area today before dwindling back down to 15 kts or less tonight as sfc high pressure ridging moves into the region. The light winds continue through Friday before increasing from the southeast and south to 20 to 30 kts by Saturday with a few gale force gusts up to 35 kts possible even into Saturday evening (up to a 20% chance according to the latest run of the LREF) as robust WAA works into the area. As sfc high pressure begins to intensify over the area late this weekend, expect the winds to very slowly veer and weaken with time from the southwest, eventually becoming 15 kts or less by Sunday night. As CAA works down from Canada early next week, we may see a return of northerly winds up to around 20 kts by as early as next Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.