textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today through Wednesday with highs/lows up to 25F warmer than seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected Monday evening through Tuesday evening. There is a 70-90% chance for over 1" of rainfall over a 48 hour period, highest in the southern and western U.P.

- Forecast confidence is starting to increase for precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday as more model solutions are slower with the progression of the system late this week, which could result in additional rainfall for the mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

This afternoon, RAP surface analysis shows a weak shortwave embedded within departing ridging lifting through the area. GOES water vapor imagery shows ample moisture at all atmospheric levels, while temperatures rise well above normal despite widespread cloud cover. Most of the UP is realizing temperatures approaching 20F above normal, as temperatures currently sit in the high-50s and low-60s, with some spots achieving mid-60s. Light, southwesterly flow is observed at the surface while 500 mb flow is slowly backing from westerly to south-southwesterly.

Meanwhile, a robust longwave trough digs into southern California. As this trough progresses east through the week, the UP ends up in a relatively long-lived WAA regime with connection to Gulf moisture, resulting in above-normal temperatures and high chances of a wetting rainfall. In the lee of the Rockies, a closed Colorado low associated with this trough forms Monday evening, deepening quickly to 995mb and lifting northeast into the Northern Plains. Its progression stalls throughout Tuesday as the low weakens slightly and dawdles for over 24 hours, reaching MN's Arrowhead only by early Thursday morning. While agreement exists that this low will slow down in the Upper Midwest for a time mid-week, the exact placement and progression of the low look to be a toss-up, according to cluster analysis and run-to-run consistency. Thus, QPF amounts and timing will continue to evolve with this forecast, including late- week continued precipitation.

At this time, the bulk of this early week's precipitation looks to commence Monday evening, with most of the UP seeing 50-80% chance of greater than 1" of precipitation falling between Monday at 7pm (EST) and Tuesday at 7pm (EST). Rain will linger into Wednesday; 48-hour probabilities of greater than 2" range from 10-30% for a period ending 7pm (EST) Wednesday. WPC has the UP in a Day 2 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, aligning with the period of heaviest anticipated rainfall during the first half of Tuesday. Flooding concerns are not anticipated at this time, given the ongoing drought. Local observations compiled by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center show nearly all of the UP as receiving between 3" and 6" less than normal between Sept 1 and Oct 31; for the NWS office in Negaunee, this number is 3.73".

For temperatures, highs in the 60s are expected through Tuesday along with lows in the low 50s on Monday and Tuesday nights (high 40s for tonight, Sunday). Highs start to trend down on Wednesday, but remain anomalously elevated until Friday, when the low passes to our east and CAA takes over temporarily. At the most, these early- week high temperatures represent 20-25F from normal (Tuesday), and departures of 25-30F for low temperatures (Monday and Tuesday nights). Despite some cooler air on Friday, this coming weekend suggests continued warm temperatures, and CPC outlooks place Upper Michigan at 60-70% chance of above-normal temps for Nov 8-14. Thus, we can expect the general trend of (relatively) warm weather to continue into November.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

IFR and MVFR cigs at CMX and SAW will lift to MVFR over the next few hours and then to VFR by late afternoon as diurnal heating helps lift cigs. Light southwest winds turn southeast tonight as low pressure deepens in the lee of the Rockies. Cooling in the low levels and light, moist southerly flow will result in another period of IFR at SAW due to fog and low cigs late tonight into the morning hours. Expect improvement back to VFR at SAW mid-morning Monday. At the tail end of the forecast winds will begin to gust up to 20kt at IWD and SAW.

MARINE

Issued at 321 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less and waves less than 2 feet continue today through Monday morning as high pressure ridging slowly decreases early this week. The weak winds could allow fog to form tonight, particularly in the western half of the lake; continue to keep your eyes on the forecast to see the latest marine fog updates. Late Monday afternoon, winds start to increase from the southeast to 25-30 kts, mostly in the eastern open lake, as a warm front moves in from the south; waves build to 4-6 ft in the eastern lake by early Tuesday morning. Winds turn more southerly Monday night with gusts remaining elevated at 15-20 kts before becoming more southwesterly Tuesday night, with waves to 3 ft. As CAA starts to move in from the northwest on Wednesday, expect the winds to turn more northwesterly before becoming northerly Wednesday night, though the exact progression of the wind shift may change as the track of low remains both uncertain and very near Lake Superior (minor track changes could result in large wind direction shifts). Thursday, northerly winds pick up substantially; with blended guidance running hot for this day, expect sustained northerlies to 20 kts with mostly sub-gale-force gusts along with the occasional gale- force gust. Waves build to 6 ft by late Thursday. Winds veer northeasterly and diminish to 10 kt sustained with gusts to 20 by the end of Friday; waves subside to less than 3 ft.

Some rumbles of thunder could be heard overhead late Monday through Wednesday as the warm front moves in and then stalls out overhead.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Light winds of generally 15 kts or less, with waves to 1 ft, continue today through Monday morning as ridging decays overhead. As a warm front starts moving in from the south Monday afternoon, southerlies increase to 20 to 25 kts by Monday night, generating waves to 4 ft. Elevated southerlies at 15-20kt sustained and gusts to 20-25 kt continue through Tuesday before slowing diminishing Tuesday night and Wednesday, eventually returning to 15 kts or less again by Thursday morning. Waves subside to less than 2 ft by Wednesday evening. The relatively lighter winds continue until northerly winds of 20 to 25 kts return late Thursday with a shot of CAA and remaining elevated through Friday.

Some rumbles of thunder could be heard overhead Monday afternoon through Wednesday as the warm front moves into the area before stalling.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.