textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and mostly dry start to the week in the 40s and 50s.

- Longer period of lake effect snow showers and near normal temperatures Wednesday through early next weekend. Accumulating snow for the north to north-east wind snowbelts is becoming increasingly likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

High pressure ridging at the sfc and upper level ridging is moving over Upper MI this morning, continuing to taper off winds and clear lingering lake effect clouds out. Temps have fallen into the upper 20s to low 30s where the low cigs cleared out quicker. Onshore flow and insulating clouds in the east and near Lake Superior has kept temps warmer in the mid 30s to mid 40s. This sfc ridge departs to the southeast today, increasing southwest flow and warming temps into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Mostly dry weather is expected today, but there is a quick hitting slight chance of showers (more likely sprinkles) grazing the Keweenaw and northeastern tier of the UP courtesy of a ridge riding shortwave and warm front. Model soundings indicate low level dry air will be a limiting factor, thus the forecast has no QPF and PoPs are capped at 24%. CAMs only had a few hundreths of QPF, mainly over Lake Superior. A cold front presses through this evening as a clipper low travels just north of Lake Superior, but dry weather persists through Tuesday. Temps bottom out tonight in the mid 30s to low 40s, warming up once again between 5 to 15 F above normal on Tuesday in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

A longer period of PoPs starts Wednesday as strong upper ridging sets up over the western CONUS with troughing over eastern Canada and CONUS. A shortwave initially sends a low pressure to the south with most associated precip outside f-gen forced rain showers grazing the WI/MI state line Wednesday morning. Then a parade of sharpness drop south over the UP through Saturday accompanied by cold 850 mb temps of -8 to -10 C. This supports lake effect showers, over the north to north-northeast wind precip belts. Differences remain on the thermodynamic profile expected with varying inversion heights between 5-10kft and amounts of moisture reaching into the DGZ. Regardless, some light snow accumulation is anticipated by the end of the week away from the lakeshores. Probabilities for 1 inch of snow by 12Z Saturday have increased to 50-90% over the north to north-northeast wind snowbelts. Increase the total to 4 inches and it drops to 25-50% over the higher elevations of the north-central UP as well as Gogebic Range and Porcupine mountains. Otherwise temps return near normal with highs in the 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 640 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Lake effect clouds continued to move off Lake Superior into the eastern U.P., with the western edge close to SAW. This has resulted in brief period of MVFR at SAW but expecting these clouds to push east this morning as winds become southerly. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with southerly wind becoming westerly late tonight. A brief period of LLWS is possible tonight (40% chance), around 00-01 UTC, but confidence was too low to include in the TAF.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Lake Superior: Northwest winds continue to drop off this morning, falling below 20 kts as high pressure reaches overhead. A clipper system tracking just north of the lake tonight into Tuesday increases southerly winds to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts late afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds turn west behind the cold front this evening between 15-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts into Tuesday morning, strongest over the east half of the lake. Winds fall below 20 kts by Tuesday night as weak high pressure returns. From there a tightening pressure gradient and cold air moving over the lake supports a longer period of north to northeast winds 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts Wednesday night into Friday. Winds taper off for the weekend with high pressure moving over the Western Great Lakes.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Northwest winds continue to drop off this morning, then increase out of the southwest ahead of a cold front. Isolated gusts of 20-25 kts are expected this evening. Otherwise wind gusts remain at or below 20 kts through Wednesday. Late this week brings gustier north-northeast winds up to 20-25 kts with the tighter pressure gradient and cold air moving overhead. Winds taper off this weekend with high pressure moving over the Western Great Lakes.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.