textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return to the western UP later tonight, followed by almost daily chances for light rain the rest of the week.

- Cooler, near normal temperatures through Tuesday will be followed by a warm-up midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Afternoon water vapor imagery and RAP analysis feature troughing over the Pacific NW, a couple of shortwaves over the Plains, and ridging over the Canadian Prairie. At the surface, this is supporting high pressure currently centered over Manitoba, which is in turn inducing northerly flow over Superior. While most of the UP remains dry, the lake effect rain showers, with the help of some upsloping off of Superior, have been able to develop mainly over the north-central UP. Mainly trace accumulations are expected in any rain showers this afternoon. Onshore flow and lake clouds have kept temperatures cooler than expected in the northern UP, where we should only see highs in the mid/upper 40s. Elsewhere, temperatures are rising into the upper 40s, and some spots may peak near 50F.

Tonight into Tuesday, the shortwave currently over NE/SD moves northeastward, with a surface trough our even a weak surface low closing off and moving into MN by Tuesday afternoon. WAA out ahead of this brings our next opportunity for rain showers late tonight, lingering through Tuesday as the wave makes its way into Ontario. Rain chances are greatest over the western UP, closer in proximity to our better forcing, but some shower activity is still possible east of M-95. Still, rain showers remain light, with totals through Tuesday generally of a tenth of an inch or less. Expect otherwise breezy conditions, as winds out of the SE gust up to 20mph across most of the UP. Temperatures bottom out in the lower to mid 30s for most, though some of the typically cooler spots in the north-central UP may fall back below freezing tonight. Expect highs to come in a few degrees warmer than today, reaching the lower to mid 50s for most.

Another more vigorous shortwave lifts into Ontario Wednesday, further pushing temps back into the 60s to near 70. This drags a cold front through the UP Wednesday night through Thursday morning, kicking off better chances for showers. Deterministic models and their ensemble counterparts generally agree on quiet weather through much of the weekend as ridging recovers over the region, potentially keeping Halloween night dry. Guidance begins to diverge the first days of November as a more zonal/SW flow aloft pattern takes shape, sending shortwave activity back into the region. At this time, ensembles don't suggest any widespread meaningful rain across the area with 24hr prob of QPF >0.1" only reaching 60-80% on any given day for portions of the UP. Additionally, above normal temperatures dominate through the rest of the month into early November with seemingly no end in sight as the CPC extended probabilities favor above normal temps through the 1-3 week and 3-4 week outlooks. All global ensembles highlight strong positive 850mb temp anomalies even into their extended 200+ hour range.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions give way to MVFR conditions today across the terminals as -SHRA mainly go across the western two terminals (although -SHRA are still possible at SAW too, just a lower chance). While we could see conditions at IWD drop to IFR for a couple of hours, chances of that occurring are only around 20% throughout the pre-dawn and daylight hours. Expect winds to become SE to S'rly today as a shortwave continues to climb from the Plains towards northern Ontario. With the shortwave's passage, we may see some LLWS return to the terminals tonight. However, did not include the LLWS in the current TAFs as it looks to be fairly marginal and may just be low-level turbulence.

MARINE

Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Lake Superior: Northerly 15-20kt gusts persist over the east-central waters this afternoon, but finally fall back below 15kts by the early evening. A period of gustier E to S winds returns Tuesday- Thursday as a pair of surface lows lift west of Lake Superior. 20- 25mph gusts develop over the western arm of the lake into the pre- dawn hours of Tuesday, then these more elevated gusts become more common over the rest of the lake during the daytime hours before becoming more isolated to the eastern half of the lake for Wednesday. Gusty winds turn over to the W/NW Thursday. Ensembles have decreased the chance for gales to 35 kts through this period (20-30% chance), unsurprisingly considering over-lake stability inhibiting mixing into stronger winds aloft. Winds fall back below 20kts Thursday night-Friday.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Northerly winds come in at around 15kts or less the rest of today through tonight. Winds turn over to the SE Tuesday, picking up during the evening with gusts of 20-25 kts through Wednesday. Winds settle below 20 kts out of the west into Thursday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.