textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Very fine snowflakes in the lake enhanced snow showers and strong winds will bring near-blizzard conditions to the areas near Lake Superior this morning. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect.

- Very cold air remains across the area through Tuesday morning, which will combine with winds to bring windchills of -20 to -35F to the area. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the Keweenaw this morning and for the entire U.P. tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Next weekend has the potential for the coldest airmass thus far this winter, with temperatures below -20F and wind chills colder than -35F possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

As a Clipper sfc low parked over the eastern lake this morning brings moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow showers to the northern tier of the U.P. this morning, expect the sand-like snowflakes and strong northerly winds of 20 to 45 mph to create visibility and blowing snow problems, particularly near the Lake Superior shoreline. While we look to remain just below blizzard criteria (and barely at that over Marquette County), the near-blizzard conditions could bring localized whiteouts near the Lake Superior shoreline this morning. Therefore, it is advised to avoid traveling this morning if you have to, even though snowfall amounts don't look to be all that much in comparison to a traditional winter storm (expect snow totals anywhere from 1 to 7 inches in the typical north wind snow belts by this evening). If you do have to travel though, take things slow and try to avoid traveling near the lakeshore, at least until the winds weaken a little and turn more west-northwesterly this afternoon.

As the snowfall transitions to pure LES this afternoon and continues over the west-northwest wind snow belts tonight into Tuesday morning, expect wind chills to stay below zero today, eventually dropping into the negative 20s to lower negative 30s in the far west late tonight/early Tuesday morning. This is because skies are expected to clear outside of the west-northwest wind snow belts tonight, allowing for radiational cooling to take affect over much of Upper Michigan as light westerly-ish winds continue across our area. With the HRRR highlighting lower temperatures tonight than what the NBM was showing, lowered temperatures with a NBM/NBM10th percentile/HRRR blend, which brings actual temperatures down into the negative teens across large swaths of the west and central outside of the west-northwest wind snow belts tonight/early Tuesday morning. As for the areas within the west-northwest wind snow belts, expect generally light LES to continue, save for northern Luce County, which may see long-lasting moderate (1/2" per hour) snowfall rates through the overnight hours thanks to some localized convergence.

As a general rule, expect the lake effect snow to continue across the area as below normal air remains over the Upper Great Lakes for the rest of this week. Currently, CAMs show a 'Bayfield Bomber' setup for the Keweenaw developing late Tuesday into Tuesday night, which could bring moderate to heavy lake effect snowfall to the area before lifting offshore as another shortwave low digs through the Northern Plains before lifting into Lower MI by Wednesday. While most of the area could be snow-free during the day Wednesday, expect additional shortwave action and cold Arctic air to keep at least light lake effect snow going into early next week (with some light system/lake enhanced snowfall potentially seen from time to time).

Expect the coldest temperatures of the forecast period to be seen late this week into this weekend as a reinforcing Arctic front pushes across the region. Behind this Arctic front, the NBM has around a 30 to 40% chance of lows colder than -20F by early Saturday morning, with the LREF showing a 60 to 90% chance for wind chills colder than -25F and a 20 to 60% chance for wind chills colder than - 35F.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 624 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Snow showers and strong winds will continue to support flight categories at all terminals in this period. IFR and LIFR conditions will be common this morning at all terminals, with conditions improving by this afternoon at KIWD/KSAW, potentially to MVFR. KSAW may reach VFR by evening. KCMX can expect LIFR or at or below airport minimums through mid-afternoon with improvement to IFR and/or MVFR this evening as lake effect and winds lighten some.

MARINE

Issued at 250 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Behind a Clipper low leaving eastern Lake Superior today, expect northerly winds as high as gales up to 40 to potentially even 45 knots during the early morning hours before weakening to northwest winds of 25 to 30 knots by this evening. In addition, heavy freezing spray is being seen across the lake with the strong winds. Expect the windy pattern (and heavy freezing spray) to continue until Wednesday, with winds becoming westerly on Tuesday. Behind another shortwave that moves through Lower MI on Wednesday, expect winds to pick up from the northwest once again late in the day, potentially even getting up to gales of 35 knots over the eastern half of the lake as heavy freezing spray also makes a return (LREF shows about a 50% chance of gales up to 35 knots). The strong northwest winds (and heavy freezing spray) continue through to the end of the week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ001>003-005-009.

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ001-003.

Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ002-084.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ004.

Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ Tuesday for MIZ004-005-009-010.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ006-007-014-085.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ007.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for MIZ011>013.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ013-014.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ085.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ243>248-251- 264-265-267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ162.

Gale Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for LSZ162- 240>242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ240>242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ243>250-264>266.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ249-250-266.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ221-248-250.