textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today through Wednesday with highs/lows up to 25F warmer than seasonal averages.

- Periods of widespread rain are expected this afternoon through the mid-week. There is a 70-95% chance for over 1" of rainfall over a 48 hour period, highest in the south-central and eastern U.P.

- Lake enhanced to lake effect rain showers expected to continue over the north to northwest wind belts late this work week. Temperatures closer to normal are also expected to return late this week.

- There is up to a 50% chance for low-end gales over central Lake Superior on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Similar to yesterday, temperatures across the UP are climbing into the high 50s and low 60s this afternoon, as highs are projected to reach 15-20F above normal in the low and mid 60s. Southeasterly surface winds, currently at 5-15 mph, are building, and GOES Day Cloud imagery shows low-level clouds with southeasterly motion below high-level, glaciating clouds with northwesterly motion. RAP surface analysis shows a 997mb Colorado low deepening to 996mb as it tracks from eastern NE toward western MN over the past 2 hours. WPC surface analysis has the warm front of this low draped across southern Ontario, well north of the UP and Lake Superior, and dewpoints in the mid-50s are advecting into the CWA. Some low radar returns are working their way across the UP from west to east, and MRMS estimates that less than 0.10" inch has fallen across the western reaches of the UP.

The aforementioned Colorado low goes through several iterations of stretching and splitting over the next few days, sending waves of precipitation in our direction as the low morphs and re-forms. Tonight's rainfall is focused on the northern head of the low, which then splits from its parent throughout Tuesday, resulting in a brief lull in rainfall Tuesday morning. The remnant (southern) low lingers over Wisconsin for all of Wednesday, consolidating and deepening as it does so; this places the UP within the warm sector and in a good spot to receive continued dousing during the second half of Wednesday. Early Thursday, this second Colorado low gathers steam and moves northeast, leaving the UP in CAA with wrap-around moisture, leading to (relatively) light lake effect showers in northerly and northwesterly wind belts, primarily in the western UP.

For the 48-hour period from tonight through Wednesday night at 7pm EST, the NBM shows 70-95% chance of receiving greater than 1" of rainfall across much of the UP, with the highest probabilities focused across the southern tier and in the Keweenaw. For this same time period for greater than 2" of rain, chances decrease to 10-45%, with the highest chances again across the south and the Keweenaw. Per the LREF, PWAT values at times over the next two days reach 100% of climatology at 1.6", and are otherwise between 1.2" and 1.5". This is unlikely to be even close to realized as surface precipitation since the LREF shows only up to 100 J/kg of MUCAPE for some times during this period. Thus, a rumble of thunder may be heard and rainfall amounts on the higher end may be locally reached. Given the ongoing drought and long duration of this event, flooding and heavy precipitation rates are not a concern at this time. Given a very moist atmosphere due to antecedent rain, patchy fog looks to be widespread tonight over much of the CWA tonight and tomorrow morning.

As the Colorado low departs northeast throughout Thursday and CAA sets in, temperatures begin to drop and winds shift northerly. Lingering moisture will allow lake effect showers to form, though totals will be much less than the preceding 48 hours, on the order of 0.1" - 0.3". The highest totals will be seen across the northern/western quadrant of the UP (Gogebic, Ontonagon, Houghton, Keweenaw, Baraga, and northern Marquette Counties). As low temperatures approach normal in the low 30s Friday morning, lake effect showers may turn to lake effect flurries in areas of higher terrain. At this time, snow is anticipated to be restricted mostly to the Michigamme Highlands, for a brief period prior to sunrise on Friday morning. Highs are expected to settle back down into the near- normal range (40s) for Friday, with lows in the high 20s and low 30s, prior to ridging and slightly warmer temperatures returning during the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 716 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

A low pressure over MN continues to support abundant low level moisture in the region, lowering CIGs down to primarily IFR for the duration of the 0Z TAF period. Associated showers initially are presenting the worst conditions (VLIFR) at CMX, which should improve back to IFR by 3Z. Showers will impact all sites this evening into tonight with MVFR VIS, followed by a brief lull for late tonight and Tuesday morning. During this lull, IWD and CMX are anticipated to return to low-end MVFR. Meanwhile, SAW lowers to LIFR early Tuesday morning. Another round of showers is expected on Tuesday with sites returning IFR/LIFR late in the period. LLWS mention continues at CMX/IWD early in the forecast with a new short addition at SAW early tonight with a passing low level jet. Southeast winds turn south for Tuesday, gradually diminishing through the period. Strongest gusts of 20-25 kts are expected this evening into tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Lake Superior: Southeasterlies increase to 20 kt sustained with gusts 25-30 kts over the eastern half of the lake tonight. Waves increase to 5-7 feet by Tuesday morning. As a Colorado low progresses toward the region from the Northern Plains then stalls out, long-duration precipitation tonight through Wednesday (with a lull Tuesday morning) is anticipated across Lake Superior. A few weak thunderstorms and heavier rainfall may occur during this time.

Winds and waves lay down Tuesday overnight into Wednesday to 10-15 kt sustained and gusts to 15-20 kts, with waves less than 4 feet, as part of the low splits and transits northeast across Lake Superior. Wind direction remains southerly over the eastern lake, and variable over the western lake during this time. Late Wednesday, the stronger (second) low center transits directly over Lake Superior, causing a distinct wind shift from southerly to northerly throughout Thursday. Elevated winds kick in behind this low, with sustained northerlies to 25-30 kts and gusts to 35 kt. As of now, guidance shows up to 55% chance of low-end gale force gusts (35 kt). The highest winds are anticipated over the western central lake during the second half of Thursday, and then over the eastern central lake during the first half of Friday. Waves in the southern part of Lake Superior are predicted to 12 feet. Winds diminish to below gale-force gusts late Friday and to less than 10 kts sustained by Saturday morning as ridging builds in.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Southerlies increase to 15-20 kt sustained with gusts to 20-30 kt tonight as a warm front pushes in. Waves build to 3-5 feet in the northern Bay of Green Bay by Tuesday morning. This system also brings rain showers and a few thunderstorms to the Bay of Green Bay through the middle of this week. Sustained winds at 10-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt linger with waves 2-4 ft through Wednesday, with a brief lull (gusts to 20 kt) Tuesday overnight. Southerlies lay down to less than 15 kt Thursday morning prior to veering northerly with the onset of CAA. Winds quickly increase to 20 kt sustained and gusts to 30 kt late Thursday, while waves increase to 4 ft by Friday morning. Elevated winds remain until diminishing Friday overnight as high pressure and light winds move in for the weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.