textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Some light lake effect rain/drizzle showers are possible over mainly the eastern U.P. tonight into Monday morning. Expect rainfall accumulations to be not much more than a trace.

- Gusty winds are expected today behind the Clipper low. Gales up to 35 knots are expected over eastern Lake Superior, and northwest gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the Keweenaw and along the Lake Superior shoreline east of Marquette.

- Could see some light rain showers mainly over the eastern U.P. Tuesday through Wednesday as well as gusty winds once again over the Keweenaw and eastern U.P.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Radar imagery shows light rainfall moving through the area in conjunction with a Clipper lifting from the north shore of Lake Superior towards James Bay. Radar imagery is also showing drier air working its way over the west early this morning, with the synoptic rainfall ceasing from west to east mainly before dawn this morning. CAA working into the region behind the synoptic precipitation is looking to bring gusty northwest winds to the Keweenaw and along Lake Superior east of Marquette today as the cooler but drier air generally keeps the area under mostly sunny skies save for maybe some scattered lake enhanced/effect clouds over the east. While the clear skies will allow for uninhibited solar radiation to reach the sfc, with 850mb temperatures around 1 to 4C expect highs to be limited to the mid 50s to lower 60s (warmest in the south central). With a reinforcing shot of CAA coming in tonight, expect light lake effect rain/drizzle showers to pick up over the eastern U.P., continuing until Monday as high pressure ridging approaches and eventually passes over the area late in the day; expect the rainfall accumulations over the eastern U.P. tonight through Monday to be on the order of nothing more than a few hundreths of an inch. Expect fairly similar conditions on Monday as compared to today, save for the sfc being a touch drier and temperatures maybe a degree or two more moderated on the high and low ends during the daytime.

After the high pressure ridging moves through late on Monday, another Clipper low phases with a low pressure from northern Canada before digging towards the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. While there is still some disagreement on how far the phasing low will dig before lifting over northern Ontario Tuesday night, rain chances have subsequently increased over the last 24 hours as guidance does now suggest enough forcing to at least accomplish some light rainfall. That being said, with some dry air at around 850-700 mb needing to be overcome, expect rainfall amounts to be rather light in the warm sector of the low, with current rain chances still limited to around 10 to 25% with the highest chances in the eastern UP. As subtle CAA works into the area Tuesday night through Wednesday, we could see a return of light lake effect rain/drizzle showers over the northwest wind belts, mainly over the eastern Yoop. In addition, expect gusty southerly winds in the warm sector on Tuesday up to 30 to 35 mph at times by the afternoon hours, highest over the east half, and west to northwest winds of 25 to 30 mph over the Keweenaw and along the Lake Superior shoreline east of Marquette again on Wednesday. With rain chances increasing, the fire weather concerns have dwindled in comparison to yesterday. Nevertheless, fire weather partners should keep an eye on the winds and RHs as the areas near Wisconsin could be drier than currently anticipated. While drier weather could be seen via sfc ridging overhead for the latter portion of the work week, additional rainfall could be seen by next weekend as a potentially robust Clipper low forms and moves through the Northern Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 718 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected after a period of MVFR cigs this morning. Low level moisture will keep low clouds, bases mainly 2-3 kft, over the U.P. through mid-morning. Thereafter much drier air will work into the area with skies clearing. It will be breezy today with gusts of 20-25kt and up to 30kt over the Keweenaw (CMX). This evening a shortwave will move through with a reinforcing cold front dropping across the area. Lake induced instability could be enough to trigger lake effect rain showers from the Keweenaw and east. Introduced a PROB30 group for the potential for showers at CMX. Winds will diminish around sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Lake Superior: The last of the southerly winds over the eastern lake early this morning turn northwesterly by the mid-morning hours as gales up to 35 kts develop/continue over the eastern half of the lake through the day today. While another round of subtle CAA could continue a few gale force gusts up to 35 kts over the eastern lake this evening, expect a slow general decrease tonight into Monday morning, with winds dropping to 20 kts or less across the lake by Monday afternoon as high pressure ridging moves overhead late Monday. On an aside, there is a threat for some sporadic waterspouts over the southeastern lake this evening into late tonight before the waterspout threat diminishes early Monday morning. That being said, don't expect the calmer conditions to last all that long, as another low from Canada digs towards the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. Therefore, expect winds to once again pick up from the south throughout the day across Lake Superior, reaching speeds of 20 to 30 kts over the entire lake with a few gale force gusts up to 35 kts possible over the eastern lake. As the cold sector of the low moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday, expect the winds to weaken slightly to 20 to 30 kts from the west Tuesday night before having a slight uptick from the northwest on Wednesday (gale chances around 20 to 40% in the cold sector on Wednesday, highest over the eastern lake). As sfc ridging slowly returns for the latter portion of the work week, expect the winds to progressively weaken with time Wednesday night through Thursday, eventually dropping to 20 kts or less again by Thursday night.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Southwest winds of 25 to 30 kts early this morning wane as they veer west and eventually northwest to 20 to 25 kts later this morning into this afternoon. While reinforcing CAA from Canada will keep northwest winds elevated to 15 to 20 kts tonight, expect incoming high pressure ridging to return calmer winds of 15 kts or less to the area by late Monday. That being said, don't expect the calmer winds to last all that long as another low from Canada approaches the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. This low is projected to increase winds from the south and southwest throughout the pre-dawn and daytime hours, with gusts of 30 kts to potentially even gales of 35 kts (up to 40% chance) possible by the afternoon hours. Once the cold sector of the low starts to come into the region by Tuesday evening though, expect the winds to die down closer to 15 kts while veering with time. However, another subtle shot of CAA could bring west to northwest winds of 15 to 20 kts back over the region on Wednesday before dropping down to 15 kts or less again by Wednesday evening as high pressure ridging begins to approach from the west. While west-northwest winds may gust up to 15 to 20 kts once again during the day on Thursday, expect calmer winds of 15 kts or less again come Thursday night.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ244-264.

Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ248-251-265- 267.

Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ249-250-266.

Lake Michigan... None.