textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather expected to persist into next week with above normal temperatures.

- Humidity will fall below 20% over interior locations during the daytime hours through early next week. There is the potential for elevated fire weather conditions today and tomorrow with the combination of dry air, warm temperatures and winds gusting to 20 mph.

UPDATE

Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Surface analysis/water vapor imagery early this morning shows a low pressure system located just east of Hudson Bay. But, strong omega blocking pattern remains the main weather feature influencing Upper Michigan weather well into the extended period. This means dry, warm conditions in north/northeasterly flow. Daytime highs will continue to trend about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with today still on track to be the hottest day of the period. Look for highs today to top off near the 90 degree mark across the interior west and south with upper 70s extending as far north as the Keweenaw. So, if you are working or recreating outside today, remember to take precautions and drink plenty of water. After more widespread 70s tomorrow (low 80s west), temperatures will slowly climb again with low to mid 80s prevailing most days across the west and south. The exception to the heat will be cooler temperatures along the lakeshores. With this setup will come elevated fire weather conditions throughout the forecast period as relative humidity values drop into the low to mid 20s percent range. A lack of strong winds will be the mitigating factor thoughout most of the forecast, but the exceptions will be today and tomorrow when winds could gust up to 20 mph. So, these days will be especially prone to elevated fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

This afternoon water vapor imagery and model height analysis showed a strong blocking ridge over the central U.S. Surface analysis showed high pressure centered over Ontario continuing to dominate the weather across the Upper Great Lakes. Visible satellite showed just a few high wispy clouds moving through the eastern U.P., otherwise sunshine was abundant and temperatures were warming through the 60s, on their way to the 70s. It was a bit cooler along the shoreline of the Great Lakes. Winds were light.

An upper level ridge, quasi-omega block, will be in place over the central U.S. through the next several days, keeping the storm track well away from the area. This will continue the trend of drier, northerly and easterly flow as surface high pressures slide south from northern Ontario through the Great Lakes. While daytime highs will be above normal, with the warmest day tomorrow, overall the dry air will result in cooler overnight conditions, limiting any heat stress. That being said, if you are working or recreating outside on Friday over the southern and western U.P. be sure to stay hydrated and take precautions as highs will reach the upper 80s with sunny conditions. Besides Friday, high temperatures will be running in the 70s to low 80s, about 10-15 degrees above normal. Lows will be closer to normal, mainly in the 40s though it will stay a bit warmer, 50s, over the west Friday night.

The main hazard concern through early next week will be elevated fire weather conditions. The continued northerly and easterly flow will help to keep much of higher dewpoints and moisture from the Gulf shunted to the west of the area. Most afternoons will see humidity drop into the 15-25% range along with the warm temperatures and abundant sunshine. The good news is that strong winds are not expected through the period, so critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated. On Friday and Saturday winds could gust to 20 mph which will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. The other days will see lighter winds and thus borderline-elevated fire weather conditions. Those planning to have outdoor fires should pay attention to the conditions and local area burn restrictions.

Ensembles are showing signs that the blocking ridge will break down or at least become much less amplified late next week, resulting in higher dewpoints surging north into the Upper Great Lakes along with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Overall the 8-14 day outlook from the CPC is calling for a good chance for above normal temperatures and equal chances for above/below normal precipitation. Expect the warm temperatures to persist but hopefully some precipitation will work back into the area as the last 30 days have been very dry.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 725 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period as Upper Michigan remains under the influence of high pressure. Nonetheless, while winds will be light and driven by the Lake Superior lake breeze during the daylight hours today, some LLWS/low level turbulence is still possible over the terminals early tonight. Best chances remain at CMX where the winds aloft are modeled to be the greatest due to a very weak low pressure passing through the area.

MARINE

Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu May 28 2026

Hazardous marine weather is not expected through early next week. A parade of high pressures moving from northern Ontario through the Great Lakes will result in fairly quite marine weather for the next several days. Light northeast flow will ramp up a bit on Friday as a cold front pushes southwest across the lake, with winds up to 25kt, lingering in the west through Saturday afternoon. Thereafter expect winds to remain below 15kt through Wednesday, except in the west Monday, as funneling of the northeast flow could bring east- northeast winds of 20-25kt.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.