textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather now expected to persist into next week with above normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

This afternoon is currently unfolding into a quintessential fair weather day at the surface in the U.P. Aloft, mid-level zonal flow has given way to meridional flow as an omega block makes camp over CONUS. Slightly cooler air has made its way south to the U.P. thanks to the northerly component in the lee of incoming ridging, rendering high temps less anomalously warm than yesterday. As of 18Z, a lake breeze is just visible on radar as moves south toward Champion. This afternoon and evening, clear skies and radiational heating will allow surface mixing to tap into a relatively weak LLJ for a few hours, resulting in 15-20 mph gusts up across the U.P. Fire weather danger remains borderline elevated: despite dry surface and low-levels, surface RHs are not expected to drop below 30% except in isolated areas for short duration.

The next 24 hours will see the block pattern settling into place. At this time, long-range guidance shows the pattern persisting in some fashion until next Tuesday. For tomorrow through Saturday, the center of the ridge resides over the northern Great Lakes and southern Manitoba, while the leeward edge of the ridge is framed by a series of orbiting, closed, mid-level lows. At the surface, we will see a repeated pattern of Hudson Bay Highs form to our north, which then propagate south toward the upper Midwest. This results in persistent high pressure over the U.P. and Lake Superior for the next few days, with generally light winds, anomalously warm high temperatures, well above-freezing lows, and negligible precipitation. Along with this, afternoon and evening RH's are likely to be in the high 20s and low 30s for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

A few periods of higher winds are currently in the forecast: this afternoon and evening, and Friday afternoon and evening. In the Friday case, the shortwave trough to our northeast consolidates and sends an impulse toward the region as it passes from Quebec toward New England. Guidance agrees that the tail end of the LLJ from this system will graze the eastern edge of the U.P. With the timing of this wind being in the afternoon of a hot day, mixing will likely allow some of those low-level winds to reach the surface.

Friday remains on track to be the warmest day of the week, with widespread highs in the mid-to-high 80s, and 90 closer to the WI border, due to a surge of very warm air from the northwest. If Friday ends up being like yesterday, however, an early lake breeze may mitigate temperatures. The warm weather may increase heat risk concerns for some of the more vulnerable portions of the population; be sure to drink plenty of water, and don't overwork yourself outside, especially during the hottest hours of the day.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 739 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

High pressure maintains VFR conditions under clear skies through the period. Winds will generally be light out of the north-northeast, falling below 10 kt after sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Light, northeasterly flow less than 20 kts persists over Lake Superior for the remainder of today and into tomorrow as high pressure builds into the region. For the far western reach and east of the Keweenaw, gusts to 25 kts are expected to lay down overnight as the jet aloft moves south and out of the region. Tomorrow and into Friday, winds veer northerly (variable later in the day) and very light less than 10 knots, except for some local funneling in western end which increases speeds slightly and causes flow to become more northeasterly. Similarly, gusts remain low at less than 12 knots.

Friday afternoon, flow organizes and increases slightly to become westerly, then northerly, as a trough passes east of the region, heading south. Another jet is expected to accompany this low, causing gusts up to 20 knots over the lake Friday afternoon and evening. Winds continue to veer becoming easterly into Saturday, which could see gusts 20-25 knots throughout the day. As high pressure persists in the region, expect light winds to continue through the weekend and into early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.