textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak disturbance brings a chance of rain showers tonight, with no impacts expected. Otherwise, cool and mostly dry weather continues this weekend into early next week under surface high pressure.

- Precipitation chances increase with a potential system on Tuesday, but confidence is low at this time.

- Warmer weather with above normal temperatures is favored by the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Afternoon RAP analysis depicts a large upper level low centered over Hudson Bay, with northwest flow in place over Lake Superior and Upper Michigan on the periphery of this feature. Visible satellite imagery shows increasing cloud cover across the U.P. ahead of a weak embedded disturbance noted over far northern Minnesota on water vapor imagery. Surface observations reveal dry conditions across the area with RH values down in the 20s in most locations and into the upper teens at a few locations. This has created some locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon as winds occasionally gust to 15-20 mph.

The upstream disturbance and an attendant surface cold front will cross the U.P. tonight, bringing the chance for a few showers to the area through early Saturday morning. Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s will mostly support light rain as the precipitation type, with perhaps a few snowflakes mixing in in the highlands of Baraga and Marquette Counties. Either way, do not expect any impacts as model QPF remains capped at around a few hundredths of an inch. Would also not be surprised if we stay completely dry tonight given the amount of dry air to overcome in the low levels, with several model solutions hinting at this possibility.

Expect a benign weather pattern dominated by cool and mostly dry conditions this weekend through Monday as upper level troughing remains entrenched over eastern Canada while surface high pressure shifts eastward from the Canadian Prairie to the Great Lakes. Will have to keep an eye on fire weather as minimum RH values are likely to drop into the 30s each afternoon, but cooler temps and lighter winds should hopefully help to keep those concerns limited. Can't rule out a few spotty showers from time to time over the next few days as cyclonic flow and cold air (-5 to -7C at 850 mb) lingers aloft, but probability is low enough to keep the forecast dry at this time.

Precipitation chances increase towards midweek as models depict a clipper system dropping into the region on Tuesday, but confidence remains low at this time as models keep any scenario on the table from a widespread wetting rain to the system dropping south and missing us completely. NBM probability to receive at least a quarter inch of rain from this system currently reside around 15-25%. WPC ensemble clusters then favor upper level ridging becoming established overhead by the end of next week, which is reflected in NBM forecast highs in the 60s to 70s by next Thursday/Friday. CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day guidance also favored above normal temperatures as we head into the middle of May.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR will be the predominant flight category for the TAF period with just some scattered to broken midlevel cloud cover over the area. Winds turn light and variable tonight, then pick up out of the NW Saturday afternoon with gusts up to 20kts possible.

MARINE

Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Winds are expected to remain below 20 kt with wave heights around 1- 2 ft through tonight. A cold front will cross the lake overnight, with NW winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt behind the front on Saturday over the eastern half of the lake. Have hoisted some small craft headlines for the eastern nearshore from Saturday afternoon to Saturday evening as wave heights increase to around 4 ft with the stronger winds. Winds then diminish back below 20 kt and wave subside back to 1-2 ft by Sunday as surface high pressure moves over the region through early next week. An approaching clipper system will then bring the next chance for winds increasing to 20-25 kt out of the east on Tuesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.