textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake effect snow continues over the east into Saturday, additional amounts of up to 2 inches of snow.

- Widespread light snow across Upper Michigan on Saturday. Much of the U.P. will see 1 inch or less, but 2 to 4 inches in the east and along the western spine.

- A fast moving system to bring 2 to 5 inches of snowfall to the U.P. Sunday night into Monday morning, impacting the morning commute.

- A warm up to above normal temperatures is expected for next week with highs in the 30s and lows in the upper teens to 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

A troughing pattern over eastern Canada with ridging extending into the Midwest from the Canadian Prairie continues cold northwest flow overhead. LES snow continues over the east, but with inversion heights mainly 5kft or less and moisture gradually weaning, significant snowfall amounts are not expected: up to 2" by Saturday morning. Temps this afternoon in the teens to single digits near 10 in the west will begin their descent tonight into the single digits above interior to mainly teens by the lakeshores. With winds still light (5-10mph, gusts up to 20mph near Lake Superior) throughout the night, widespread windchills in the single digits above/below 0 are expected.

A shortwave dropping southeast over the east half of the CWA supports a widespread round of light snow. Moisture will be brief and not impressive, leaving much of the UP at or below 1" of snow. Where higher amounts will be realized is in the western spine and the east where lake effect assists. With SLRs approaching 20:1, low impacts are anticipated with this event. Otherwise highs will be in the mid teens to low 20s. Additional trailing LES is expected over the northwest wind snowbelts Saturday night into Sunday. A fluffy 1- 2" in the east with amounts less than 1" north-central and west/Keweenaw. Lows Saturday night once again in the single digits to teens.

Zonal low sets up next week supporting a warm up to above normal temps (generally 5-15F above climatology) with highs in the 30s and lows in the upper teens to 20s. The remainder of the discussion will focus on the system for Sunday night into Monday, but a wintry mix accompanies another transient shortwave on Tuesday and PoPs return with a deeper trough late week into next weekend. Exact details are murky at this point, especially regarding next weekend.

A stronger wave arrives from the west Sunday night, progressing overhead into Monday morning. With WAA/isentropic ascent, widespread light to moderate snowfall is expected into Monday morning. The limiting factor for heavy snow is that the DGZ is lofted up to 10- 15kft and moisture only briefly appears within that region limiting accumulation. Regardless, some impacts are anticipated given the denser nature of the snowfall leading into the Monday morning commute (SLRs between 8:1 and 12:1). The going forecast favors the potential for higher QPF (EFI shading to 0.8 with SoT>0) with 0.25- 0.45", yielding 2-5" of snow. Currently, the NBM has a 15-30% chance for greater than 6" of snow, highest probabilities in Delta County due to lake enhancement off Lake Michigan.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 627 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Lake effect clouds will continue to maintain MVFR cigs at CMX/SAW, although SAW could scatter out at times overnight on the edge of the cloud shield. Blowing snow continues to reduce vsby to MVFR at SAW with winds gusting to 30 kt, although they will gradually decrease through the night. IWD likely remains VFR through the night.

A weak disturbance will bring light snow to IWD/CMX from early/mid- morning through the afternoon. At least a few hours of IFR vsby is expected at IWD/SAW, with IFR probs < 30 percent at SAW at this time, only included PROB30 wording for MVFR vsby. MVFR cigs will continue through the day.

MARINE

Issued at 356 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

West to northwest winds of 20-30 kts lake wide with lingering gale force gusts to 35 kts over the east continue into this evening. Maintained the Gale and Heavy Freezing Spray headlines as is. Winds over the west settle below 20 kts tonight with 15-25 kts persisting over the east. Northwest winds increase on Saturday to 20-30 kts over the east and 15-25 kts over the west, then gradually fall below 20 kts from west to east Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds overhead. Southerly winds increase Sunday night into Monday to 20-25 kts over the east half of the lake ahead of the next clipper system, but fall below 20 kts again by Monday afternoon. Otherwise, winds mainly hold 20 kts or less most of next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ242>249-263>266.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ250-251- 265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.