textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds are creating hazardous beach conditions along the Lake Superior shoreline from Marquette County eastward today.

- Patchy fog and/or frost is possible over the interior west late tonight.

- Seasonable temperatures late this workweek give way to above normal temperatures and humid conditions this weekend through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

While cold air advection continues today into Friday morning, expect mainly dry conditions as delta-Ts across Lake Superior will be too low to support lake effect rain showers and high pressure begins to enter into the U.P. from the west. Nevertheless, it is possible that a sprinkle or two could be seen over the area today, but chances for these sprinkles remain fairly low (thinking ~25% or less chance). In addition, expect cooler temperatures today as highs only get into upper 60s to mid 70s even despite only the partly cloudy skies. The CAA (cold air advection) is also creating high winds and waves over the eastern half of Lake Superior today. This in turn is creating dangerous waves and rip currents along the beaches of Alger and Marquette County today. Therefore, swimmers should avoid going into Lake Superior until late this afternoon from Marquette County eastward.

Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight. Because of the general lack of cloud cover, thinking lows will drop a few degrees lower than what the NBM is currently putting down. Thus, followed the day-shift's lead and utilized the NBM10th percentile for lows tonight, dropping them down into the 30s and 40s across much of the interior areas; the coldest spots in the interior west could even drop down to around 30 degrees, provided no fog forms. Speaking of which, because of the large drop in temperature, it is possible that some patchy fog forms over the interior west late tonight. However, confidence on this is not high as fog has yet to be seen over the area early this morning as of the time of this writing. That being said, should fog form over the west later this morning, expect the fog chances for tonight to subsequently increase. If fog does not form late tonight, then some patchy frost could be seen over the colder parts of the interior west. While it wouldn't be widespread enough to warrant a Frost Advisory, it may be prudent to keep an eye on the forecasted lows later today to see if some plants need to be covered.

Expect temperatures to trend from around normal for the end of this work week to above normal and humid by this weekend into early next week. This is due to a high pressure ridge breaking down as it heads eastward over our area today into Friday. However, a troughing pattern is expected to set up shop over the western CONUS by this weekend, allowing shortwaves to rotate into our region from the Rockies. Given the convective nature of the rainfall expected from the shortwaves, it doesn't appear that any individual day looks like a wash-out. That being said, chances are pretty high (30 to 65% chance) relatively speaking for rainfall across the area this weekend. In addition, a stronger storm or two cannot be completely ruled out either as 0-6 km bulk shear forecasts range from around 30 kts to 45 kts, even though MUCAPEs look to stay well below 1 kJ/kg for the most part.

Expect the warmer than normal temperatures and humid conditions to continue through early next week as the troughing pattern holds over the western CONUS and high pressure ridging retreats to the Southeastern U.S.. Hopefully we will see enough rainfall this weekend through early next week to relieve some drought concerns over the area, particularly in the far west where the drought conditions are worst.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 700 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected for the period as high pressure builds in today and tonight. That being said, some low MVFR cigs are expected over SAW this morning, with up to a 20% chance of seeing IFR cigs before early this afternoon. However, as daytime heating continues, expect SAW to improve to VFR by early this afternoon. Good flying conditions continue until potentially late tonight over SAW, where some patchy fog may develop. Expect NW to N winds today, eventually becoming calm by this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Lake Superior: NW winds of 20 to 30 kts this morning dwindle down to 20 kts or less by this evening as high pressure moves back into the region. Winds look to remain generally 20 kts or less until a shortwave low lifting towards the Upper Midwest brings NE winds of 20 to 25 kts back over the western half of the lake on Sunday into Sunday night. In addition, expect showers and storms to return for the weekend due to incoming shortwave lows. Shortwave activity continues into early next week, keeping the threat for showers and thunderstorms overhead. Some E to NE winds of 20 to 25 kts are possible over the lake on Monday.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: expect NW to N winds of 15 to 20 kts today before incoming high pressure brings winds down to 15 kts or less again for the rest of the work week. Incoming shortwave activity this weekend into early next week looks to bring showers and thunderstorms back across the area throughout much of the rest of the period, with S to SW winds of 15 to 25 kts returning through the weekend. After calming down a bit Sunday night, expect SE to S winds of 15 to 20 kts to return to the area on Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ005.

Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.