textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A Clipper system brings widespread light rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Gales are possible over central Lake Superior Tuesday and again on Wednesday.

- Warmer than normal temperatures are favored by the end of this week. In addition, a more active pattern is expected as we head towards the latter half of May.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 401 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

GOES visible satellite reveals mostly clear skies save for some fairweather cumulus across Upper Michigan this afternoon as transient high pressure crosses the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures were still struggling to get out of the 40s in most locations as of 2 PM EDT as cloud cover was a bit late to scatter out today. Have bumped down afternoon highs a few degrees as a result. Still expect minimum humidity values to get down into the 30s in many locations and even into the 20s in the interior west, but light winds should limit any fire weather concerns.

Cloud cover will be on the increase tonight as a clipper system drops out of the Canadian Prairie provinces bringing a widespread wetting rain to the area through Tuesday. Expect rain to arrive in the far west before sunrise Tuesday and spread east across the rest of the UP through the afternoon, accompanied by breezy southerly winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Model QPF amounts have not changed much from the previous forecast package, depicting a general tenth to a quarter inch across most of the area with localized higher amounts possible. Latest NBM shows about a 30-50% chance to reach a half inch of rain by Tuesday evening from the Keweenaw to the shores of Lake Superior in the central and eastern UP. Can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder on Tuesday, especially in the western third of the UP where latest HREF depicts a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE, but do not expect any strong thunderstorms. Expect some lake enhanced rain showers to linger into the early part of Wednesday in cold northerly flow in the wake of the system, but wouldn't expect more than a few hundredths of additional precipitation from Tuesday night onward. Could see a few snowflakes mix in over the higher terrain, with little to no accumulation.

For the remainder of Wednesday and for most of Thursday, ridging builds in and winds go light over land; expect a clear-sky day with high temperatures closer to climate normal (mostly low 60's, but reaching into the low 70's in the interior west) on Thursday. These conditions will be short-lived as a second clipper passes just north of Lake Superior from Manitoba on its way to Quebec between midday Friday and Sunday. This clipper's passage corresponds with warmer, moister air reaching up from the Gulf. Additional rounds of showers are anticipated over the weekend along with warmer daytime highs (widespread high 60's/low 70's) and higher RH's Friday through Sunday. Given the rounds of precip expected with these two clippers, elevated fire weather concerns should be allayed throughout the week, despite intermittent windy conditions and higher temperatures later in the week. We can look to the warmer and wetter conditions expected later in the week to ramp up the region's (thus far) delayed green-up.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 213 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail into tonight with Upper Michigan still under the influence of high pressure. However, as a Clipper approaches the area tonight, expect rain showers to overspread the TAF sites and conditions to gradually diminish to MVFR levels. By mid to late morning tomorrow, CMX and SAW could see further deterioration to IFR and potentially LIFR. For now, though, will only highlight the LIFR threat with PROB30s. In addition to the ceiling restrictions, winds will increase from the south/southeast as the aforementioned low approaches the area. Winds will gust up to 25 to 30 kts after Tue 09Z.

MARINE

Issued at 401 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue through this evening as high pressure ridging moves through the Upper Great Lakes. However, as a Clipper low approaches far western Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday, expect the winds to pick up from the south late tonight, potentially even gusting up to gales of 35 knots over the central lake by Tuesday as the low arrives. Upgraded to a Gale Warning as probs remain above 60% through Tuesday afternoon. In addition, as the low approaches tonight, there is a slight chance that some thunderstorms could be seen over the far western lake. As the Clipper continues into southern Ontario Tuesday night and towards the St. Lawrence Seaway on Wednesday, expect the winds to initially weaken over Lake Superior late Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, as reinforcing cold air advection arrives behind the low late Tuesday night into Wednesday, expect the winds to pick up from the north-northwest across the central and eastern lake, with gales up to 40 knots possible over the south central lake near Marquette and Munising by Wednesday morning (around a 60% chance for at least low- end gales according to the latest NBM).

As the low continues to depart eastward and high pressure ridging builds in from the west, expect the winds to dwindle with time late Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with light winds of 20 knots or less being seen across the entire lake by Wednesday night. Expect the light winds to continue through the day Thursday as the high pressure ridging passes by. However, with a warm front pushing in from the west Thursday night through Friday, expect winds to pick up from the south once again to at least 20 to 30 knots over much of the lake; some gales up to 35 knots could also be seen over the eastern lake too come Friday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ244-245-248- 249-264>266.

Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for LSZ248>250-265-266.

Lake Michigan... None.