textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow is expected to continue into early Saturday. The most impactful period looks to be from later this evening into Friday morning.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Baraga and Marquette Counties through Noon EST Friday. Additional snowfall of 3- 7" is expected through Friday over the higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties with 1-3" elsewhere. Amounts will likely be limited to an inch or less near the lakeshore, including the City of Marquette. There is a 60% chance for total snowfall exceeding 10" in the rural higher terrain west of Marquette CR510 and well north of US-41.

- Dry weather expected beyond Saturday as temperatures rebound to unseasonably warm values (upper 40s/low 50s) early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

The upper level pattern remains dominated by large scale troughing spanning from eastern Canada to the Great Lakes today. This is being reinforced by multiple embedded shortwaves, the most pertinent of which for Upper Michigan is currently noted dropping south across northern Ontario on water vapor vapor imagery. Radar reveals ongoing lake effect snow across the UP in north-northeasterly flow. Temperatures are currently running in the upper 30s near the lakeshore and closer to freezing for inland areas as of mid afternoon. This has kept snowfall limited to a trace at most near the lakeshore with rain mixing in at times, while higher elevation areas west of Marquette have mostly reported an inch or two of accumulation to this point.

Still expect lake effect to ramp up in intensity this evening into the overnight hours as the aforementioned shortwave crosses the area and conditions become a bit more favorable. 850 mb temps will drop to around -9 or -10 C this evening, further increasing delta Ts as lake surface temperatures remain around 8-10 C. Model soundings show a bit more moistening of the DGZ while inversion heights increase to 8 or 9 kft, possibly as high as 10 kft. Latest REFS guidance depicts around a 40% chance for rates occasionally approaching an inch an hour tonight in the favored areas of Marquette and Baraga Counties. Models continue to struggle with snow ratios as today's observations range from around 5:1 at the forecast office in Negaunee Township to as much as 9:1 in the higher terrain of Baraga County, still a far cry from the SLRs in the teens being depicted by most guidance. All in all, forecast amounts remain largely in line with previous forecasts. The bullseye will remain over the higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga Counties aided by upslope flow and colder temperatures, with a general 2-4 inches expected through Friday morning along the US-41 corridor between Negaunee and Michigamme Township. Higher amounts of another 6-8 inches are still possible in the rural areas north of US-41 and west of CR510, with the latest REFS giving this about a 60% chance of verifying. Meanwhile, areas closer to the lakeshore including the City of Marquette will struggle to see much accumulation given warmer temperatures near the lake, but it wouldn't be out of the question to pick up a slushy inch or so late tonight into early Friday morning along the lakeshore. Expect at least some snow across all areas of the UP through Friday, with locations outside of the primary north- northeast wind belts picking up around an inch or maybe two in a few spots through Friday morning. Timing still looks good for the Winter Weather Advisory as snow will diminish in intensity by Friday afternoon. Lake effect could linger into Saturday across mainly Marquette and Alger Counties, but would expect accumulations to be capped at an inch or less from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Much quieter weather is in store from Sunday through the first half of next week as high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes and much of the eastern CONUS. This looks to keep Upper Michigan dry through at least Wednesday, accompanied by temperatures climbing back into the 40s to 50s from Monday onward, well above seasonal norms for mid November. Guidance does hint at another system bringing precipitation back to the UP towards the latter half of next week, but confidence in specific details is low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are the expected general conditions the rest of today through Friday morning as lake effect snow showers continue over the north wind snow belts. The intensity of the snow bands may increase over CMX and especially SAW tonight as a secondary cold front pushes through and brings localized convergence to these areas; LIFR vis could be realized at times but currently isn't expected (10% chance or less according to the latest LAMP guidance). Otherwise, expect the 'best' conditions at IWD as they should remain fairly steady at MVFR cigs for the most part. Expect northerly flow of around 10-13 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts across the area, with the highest winds at CMX and SAW.

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Northerly winds of 25-30 kt over Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan this afternoon diminish to 20-25 kt over the west part of Lake Superior tonight, but additional minor disturbances aloft will keep gusty northerly winds of 25-30 kt over the eastern half of Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan through Friday evening. This will drive waves of up to 5 ft on Lake Michigan and 4-8 ft on Lake Superior (highest in the nearshore waters from Au Train Bay to Big Bay). Waves fall below 4 ft Friday afternoon for all except the east half of Lake Superior, with waves falling below 4 ft in the east Saturday afternoon. High pressure will keep winds mostly below 20 kt and waves mostly 2 ft or less through the first half of next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for MIZ004-005.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.