textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and breezy conditions arrive today. Gales are expected over Lake Superior along and east of the Keweenaw this morning into this evening. This will also result in dangerous swim conditions for the Lake Superior beaches.

- Quieter weather moves overhead for much of the rest of this week, save for some light rain showers and a weak thunderstorm or two today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Behind the low today, expect a lot less 'interesting' weather conditions as the ingredients conducive for severe weather continue to retreat southeastward away from the area. That being said, with a backdoor cold front moving through today across the U.P., expect gusty northwest winds of 25 to 30 mph to pick up across the area by this afternoon, with some spots in the Keweenaw and east along the Lake Superior shoreline potentially seeing some gusts up to 40 mph; a rogue gust or two up to 45 mph or so cannot be completely ruled out (up to a 30% chance according to the latest 00z HREF). Because of the gusty winds over Lake Superior, dangerous rip currents are expected to develop along the shoreline. Therefore, a Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for the beaches of Marquette and Alger counties today.

While the severe weather threat is now over, due to some synoptic moisture still hanging over us in the lower to mid levels (as can be seen on 850 and 700mb moisture content and transfer plots), delta-Ts over Lake Superior getting to around 8-10 C, and strong winds over the lake creating additional moisture flux (as well as help from upslope lift), some lake enhanced-like light rain showers (and a weak thunderstorm or two) are expected to form over much of the area today, mainly during the morning hours as the backdoor cold front is passing through. However, once the additional system moisture is lost behind the cold front, expect the rain chances to drop down to around 25%-ish or less by this afternoon. While there is around a 20% chance for some light rain showers over the east late this evening, expect the last of the rain showers to be done over us by midnight tonight.

Besides the rain and gusty winds today, expect the rest of this work week to generally be calmer, with highs today and Wednesday looking to be below normal (mid 60s to maybe lower 70s by this morning today, and the lower to mid 70s on Wednesday). In addition, with rainfall having occurred over the wildfires in northern Ontario and the Boundary Waters of Minnesota, as well as high pressure ridging dropping down from the Canadian Prairies into the Midwest, wildfire smoke is suspected to finally not impact the air quality! However, as the high pressure flattens and progresses east through the Lower Great Lakes into New England for Thursday into Friday, expect the temperatures to begin climbing back up to above normal (think high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s). As this occurs, troughing slowly moves in from the west towards us, with a shortwave low potentially bringing some more rain showers and thunderstorms over us by this weekend. Behind this low, upper-level northwest flow looks to keep temperatures somewhat moderated over us into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Gusty winds pick up from the NNW today as a cold front moving through potentially brings -SHRA to the terminals this morning. While rain chances decrease into the afternoon hours, lower-end MVFR cigs are expected until the afternoon/evening hours when the skies start to clear out behind the front. While we could see a dip into IFR at SAW for an hour or two this morning, don't think the cigs will drop low enough to warrant anything more than a PROB30. VFR conditions look to dominate tonight as winds taper off with high pressure coming in from the Canadian Prairies.

MARINE

Issued at 236 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

While the severe weather threat has passed to the southeast, west winds of 20 to 25 knots early this morning increase to northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots over the west half and gales up to 40 knots over the east half later this morning along and behind a backdoor cold front moving through the area. Gales look to continue over the east half until the evening hours as the parent low continues east into northern Quebec. While cold air advection behind the low will help the winds to remain gusty to 20 to 25 knots from the northwest tonight, as high pressure descends from the Canadian Prairies into the Midwest today into Wednesday, expect the winds to die down to 20 knots or less by no later than Wednesday night. While the winds look to generally remain light, we could see southwest gusts up to 25 knots across the lake on Thursday and again on Friday as the high pressure flattens out and heads east towards New England for the latter portions of the work week; strengthening troughing moving in from the west may be enough to have a few showers and thunderstorms develop over the lake Thursday night into Friday. As a shortwave low approaches for this weekend, expect the winds to begin picking up from the south/southwest Friday night, potentially getting up to 30 knots or even low-end gales to 35 knots by Saturday morning (up to a 30% chance for low-end gales according to the latest NBM). In addition, rain and thunderstorm chances become more likely throughout the day on Saturday as the shortwave passes by (up to around a 50% chance now according to the latest NBM).

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ005-006.

Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ014.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ244>251- 265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.