textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be closer to average for the holiday weekend along with notably drier air as dew points fall back into the 50s to low 60s.

- Largely dry weather looks to persist across Upper Michigan through Monday, with rain and thunderstorm chances returning towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The upper level pattern this afternoon features a highly amplified ridge extending from northern Ontario through Hudson Bay and into the Canadian Arctic. Beneath the ridge, quasi-zonal flow is place across the northern tier of the CONUS, with an embedded disturbance noted upstream of the Great Lakes on GOES water vapor imagery over the Upper MS River Valley. This feature will remain south of the area today as it tracks across WI and mostly keeps any shower activity south of the state line aside from a few isolated showers in the west. As such, expect a pleasant holiday afternoon and evening across the UP as northerly low level flow yields warm but less humid conditions with temperatures mainly in the 70s to low 80s, staying a bit cooler near the Lake Superior shoreline.

Similarly pleasant and dry conditions will persist from Sunday into Monday as high pressure maintains its influence over the region amidst a gradual warming trend. Sunday will see similar high temperatures to today while overnight lows fall closer to seasonal norms in the low to mid 50s for the next few nights. Expect highs to rebound into the upper 70s to mid 80s across most of the area by Monday afternoon as onshore low level flow subsides.

Shower and thunderstorm potential resumes during the middle of next week as high pressure over Hudson Bay and Quebec is replaced by upper level troughing which allows the next series of disturbances to approach the Upper Great Lakes. A surface cold front looks to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as temperatures continue to increase into the 80s and returning moisture helps to build instability on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE per latest ensemble guidance. Another wave follows on Wednesday as PWATs surge back above 1.5", with WPC placing all of Upper Michigan in a slight risk for excessive rainfall in the Day 5 Outlook. Will continue to monitor these trends as the finer scale details come into better focus in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with just some patchy mid to high level cloud cover over the area. That said, a few isolated showers are possible around IWD beginning this afternoon as another shortwave dives into Wisconsin. However, confidence and coverage is too low to include in the TAF this afternoon and tonight. Light easterly winds are expected through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Visible satellite reveals mostly clear skies over Lake Superior this afternoon as high pressure sits north of the lake. Surface observations show light northerly winds below 15 kt and waves of 2 ft or less over most of the lake, with the exception of some stronger breezes to around 20 kt over the western arm of the lake. Expect those to subside tonight, with benign conditions persisting into the beginning of next week as surface high pressure remains over the lake through Monday. More active weather will bring renewed chances for thunderstorms by the middle of next week, but still do not see any signals for winds strengthening above 20 kt over the next five days.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.