textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light rain showers move west to east across the UP through this afternoon.

- A period of cooler, more normal temperatures with highs in the 40s to low 50s is expected Monday and Tuesday, followed by a warm-up midweek next week.

- More active weather begins Tuesday, with almost daily chances for light rain into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery reveals increasing cloud cover being lifted into the Upper Great Lakes as an upper trough works through the region. At the surface a low pressure center is swinging across the Hudson Bay, dragging a surface cold front into the far western UP as of writing this discussion. Some light radar returns are noted on KMQT and KDLH from IWD down through northern WI along the boundary. As this frontal boundary continues to press across the UP this morning, we should see temps finally come down into the 40s to low 50s by sunrise. Light showers will accompany the front across the area today, bringing light rainfall amounts generally 0.1" or less. Dry air filtering in behind the the front will work to lower afternoon RHs in the western UP between 25-45%, driest in Gogebic and Ontonagon counties, posing a limited fire weather risk. Luckily, winds remain light (15 kts or less) and daytime temps only peak in the 50s to near 60. Elsewhere, low 50s expected in the Keweenaw where breezy winds will be common and near 60 to low 60s across the s-central. Lows fall into the 30s and 40s, coldest interior.

Ridging begins to recover Monday into Tuesday, though an embedded shortwave lifts north over the Dakotas Monday night through Tuesday, supporting a weak low to the west which may graze the western UP with some rain showers Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. This quickly is followed up by a more vigorous shortwave moving over the same area, sending another sfc low to the west of the CWA, keeping shower chances in the forecast through Wednesday night. Discrepancies remain on exact track, but best rain chances (40-70%) are over the west during both events. Guidance quickly begins to struggle after Thursday, but a more active period is anticipated to continue into early November captured by the CPC's 6-10 precipitation outlook of slightly above normal precip. At this time, ensembles don't suggest any widespread meaningful rain across the area with 24hr prob of QPF >0.1" only reaching 60% on any given day. Additionally, above normal temperatures dominate through the rest of the month into early November with seemingly no end in sight. All global ensembles highlight strong positive 850mb temp anomalies even into their extended 200+ hour range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 728 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Weakening cold front passing through Upper Michigan is bringing a few spotty rain showers to the western and central UP this morning. Currently seeing VFR conditions at all terminals, but a drop to MVFR/IFR conditions is expected at KSAW as the front and corresponding heavier shower activity move into the terminal in the next few hours. Conditions should then improve back to VFR at KSAW as showers depart by 18z Sun, with VFR then expected for the duration of the period. Winds have shifted west-northwest behind the front, generally staying around 5-7 kt at KIWD and KSAW but remaining closer to 10-15 kt at KCMX today.

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Lake Superior: Breezy southerlies this morning turn westerly behind a passing cold front, gusting to 20-25 kts around the Keweenaw. These westerlies persist through the day before turning northerly as high pressure builds into the area. Light winds <20 kts hold through Monday before a period of gustier E to S winds return Tuesday- Thursday as a pair of surface lows lift west of Lake Superior. The latest and greatest NBM suggests a 40-70% chance for gales to 35 kts through this period, though given the southerly wind direction there remains some questions on how warm air advection may contribute to over-lake stability and max gust potential.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Light winds mainly 15kts or less persist into early next week, turning northerly Monday and then southeast Tuesday. Winds begin to increase Tuesday night, with gusts of 20-25 kts through Wednesday, settling below 20 kts out of the west by Thursday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.