textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect rain showers (snow showers roughly above 1000 foot elevation in the central and west) this morning transition over to only rain by this afternoon, tapering off from west to east. A dusting up to an inch is forecast, up to 2 inches in the Michigamme Highlands. Travel impacts are not expected due to warm ground temperatures.

- Temperatures warm through the weekend, becoming well above normal by Sunday and Monday with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Early morning GOES WV imagery and RAP height analysis place a shortwave trough over eastern Upper MI with a ridge building upstream over the Dakotas and MN. At the surface, high pressure is building in from the northwest. Delta-Ts across Lake Superior of 12- 15 C are supporting lake effect rain and snow showers noted on radar. Snow is mainly occuring above 1000 ft in elevation in the west and central UP. Ground temps in the mid 30s to low 40s prevent any snow from accumulating on paved surfaces/roadways, confirmed with available webcams, leaving no travel impacts for the morning commute. Any accumulations should be a dusting to 1 inch mainly on grass or elevated surfaces, save for up to 2-3 inches in the Michigamme Highlands. Temps settle into the upper 20s to upper 30s this morning. Showers dissipate from west to east today due to a warming and drying airmass. Brisk winds follow a similar pattern, tapering down from west to east today; still expecting gusts up to around 35 mph near eastern Lake Superior this morning. Temps warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s under mostly cloudy skies.

With high pressure overhead tonight, calm conditions and colder temps are expected. Where clearing occurs much earlier in the west, temps fall into the upper teens to mid 20s. Lows near the Great Lakes shores will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Lake effect cloud cover insulates into the early overnight hours in the east, keeping lows moreso in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

A Pacific jet allows for more mild air across the CONUS and southern Canada, this weekend into early next week. Highs trend to the upper 40s to 50s by Monday with lows in the upper 20s to 30s. A trough digging southeast across Ontario on Sunday sends a sfc low over far northern Ontario. A cold front turns winds westerly for Sunday, becoming gusty by the afternoon. Frequent gusts of 20-25 mph are expected in the south half and 25-35 mph in the north. A brief hit of lake enhanced to lake effect rain showers are possible with this system, highest confidence over the east (20-50% chance) Sunday afternoon. Early next week brings a clipper system before high pressure returns for much of the remainder of the work week. 850 mb temps fall to at least -7C by Wednesday, remaining steadily cool out of the north. This would favor some periods of lake effect showers as well as closer to normal temps (highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows in the 20s to low 30s) through late next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Lake effect rain/snow showers are beginning to wrap up from west to east this afternoon with the last of the precip departing IWD via satellite imagery at this time. Increasing dry air via building high pressure will work to limit LES shower activity through the afternoon and into the evening, lifting MVFR/IFR cigs at CMX/SAW to VFR tonight. Otherwise, breezy north winds at SAW upwards of 20 kts are expected to persist through the afternoon before falling off to 15 kts or less by ~00z tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 304 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Lake Superior: Northerly winds of 15-25 kts gusting up to 30-35 kts over the east this morning taper off from west to east today as high pressure returns. Gusts fall below 20 kts by this evening. Significant wave heights of 5-10 ft fall below 4 ft in a similar west to east fashion. Southwest winds increase to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts by Saturday night (strongest west half) as high pressure dissipates, turning west 20-30 kts for Sunday behind a cold front. Strongest winds then will be over the east half where gales are becoming increasingly likely (50-70% chance). Current forecast generally reflects 34-40 kt gusts east of the Keweenaw and south of Stannard Rock. Leaning Gale Watch with the next forecast package if trends continue. Storm force probabilities are low (10-30% chance). Winds quickly fall below 20 kts Sunday night with a passing high pressure to the south. A clipper system early next week presents a rinse and repeat scenario to the Sunday forecast, but there are notable discrepancies regarding timing and track. Gale potential is 10-30% chance in the southeastern waters Monday night into Tuesday.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Northerly winds of 15-25 kts gusting up to 30 kts persist this morning, then taper off this afternoon. Wind gusts fall below 20 kts this evening as high pressure builds in. Occasional southwest wind gusts approach 20 kts Saturday night and Sunday, but otherwise remain below 20 kts through early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.