textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Westerly gales of 35-40 kts this afternoon taper off from west to east into this evening.

- A chance (15-40%) for scattered light rain/snow showers Wednesday and Thursday. Accumulations will be limited with no expected impacts.

- Colder than normal temperatures continue into the weekend. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s and lows in the 20s to low 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Afternoon GOES water vapor imagery place the UP in the wake of a shortwave trough moving north over northern Ontario and into Quebec. This is part of a broader troughing pattern over much of Canada and the Midwest/Great Lakes. The associated surface low has also made it to far northeastern Ontario at ~992mb, but pressure rises and CAA paired with the lingering tighter pressure gradient is keeping winds breezy this afternoon with west to northwest gusts of 20-35 mph, strongest in the Keweenaw. Temps in the 40s and 50s, warmest south, settle tonight in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Otherwise mostly dry weather persists and lingering winds turn light tonight.

Another shortwave moves overhead on Wednesday. This coupled with steep low level lapse rates results in some isolated to scattered rain/snow showers in the afternoon, primarily over the central UP. Given limited moisture, QPF will range a few hundreths (less than 0.1 inch). High pressure slowly builds in the rest of the week, but cyclonic flow aloft may try and squeeze out some additional spotty showers with limited precip through Thursday. By Friday, 850mb temps may be just marginally cold enough for stray lake effect showers (- 9C to -10C), but left NBM as is given the negligible impacts and low confidence. Under this pattern, cooler than normal temps are expected with highs mostly in the 40s and lows in the 20s to low 30s.

The weak high pressure extending overhead on Saturday dissipates by Sunday as the now closed low spins over eastern Canada/New England. Mostly dry weather likely persists through the weekend, but forecast confidence rapidly breaks down as models struggle to resolve the pattern progression into next week. The next shot at widespread precip likely holds off until early next week when shortwaves begin moving in from the northwest, but spread is significant. What does have better forecast confidence is the cooler than normal temps persisting into May given the persistent troughing over the region. This is captured well by the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-4 week CPC temperature outlooks.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 158 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR ceilings gradually improve to VFR from west to east through the afternoon and evening, with SAW finally lifting to VFR closer to 00Z. Gusty west winds will persist at all terminals through at least the evening, gusting to 25-30 kt at KIWD and KSAW and as high as 30- 35 kt at KCMX. Winds will diminish to 10 kt around 00z Wed and then become light by 06z.

MARINE

Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A lingering tight pressure gradient overhead from a departing low pressure system to the northeast alongside pressure rises and colder air filtering over the lake are resulting in the gusty northwest to west winds this afternoon. 20-30 kt winds over the west and gales up to 40 kts over the east diminish through this evening from west to east as this gradient slackens overhead. Maintained Gale Warnings as is. Resulting significant wave heights also fall from west to east, settling below 4 ft in the west this evening and Wednesday morning in the east. Benign weather is expected for the rest of the week as high pressure slowly moves in from the west. Winds remain mainly 20 kts or less through the weekend, primarily out of the north to northwest.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ244-245-250- 251-264-265.

Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ248-249.

Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.