textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A mostly dry weekend is in store for us, save for maybe some sprinkles and very light rain showers during the daytime.

- Below normal temperatures return for Sunday and Monday as highs only get into the 40s and 50s.

- Precipitation chances are increasing for a Clipper system impacting the area Tuesday into Tuesday night.

- Warmer weather with above normal temperatures is favored by the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

With entrained dry air eating away any precipitation falling out of the showers this morning, expect very little if any liquid to hit the sfc over the U.P. today as a cold front continues to push through the region. With the cold front bringing in another dry polar air mass, expect today to be somewhat similar to yesterday, albeit the temperatures are looking to be cooler (especially over the northern U.P) and RHs this afternoon don't look to be as dry, only getting down into the mid to maybe lower 20 percents near the Wisconsin border. Winds will be fairly steady from mainly the northwest today as gusts up to 20 to potentially even 25 mph are possible. Overall, given the winds, temperatures, and not-as-dry air at the sfc today, don't think we will see elevated fire weather conditions, especially since (again) the temperatures should be cooler and the sfc not as dry.

Moving into Sunday and Monday, expect cooler than normal temperatures to return as highs in the 40s and 50s overspread the U.P. early next week. While high pressure from the Canadian Prairies descends into the Upper Great Lakes early next week, given the cooler temperatures and mostly light winds (generally 20 mph or less), thinking we will avoid fire weather concerns even as RHs drop into the 20 percents over at least the interior west both days. While the dry conditions certainly don't help with the slowly growing fire weather concerns (due to the lack of moisture at the sfc/liquid being added to the soil), some relief is looking to begin via a Clipper low around Tuesday.

Thankfully, the differing model guidances are increasing the chances for at least light rainfall across our area for Tuesday as a Clipper low descends into the Upper Midwest. With the model guidance starting to converge on a track for the Clipper low, confidence is increasing on rainfall chances over the U.P. for Tuesday into Tuesday night. While there is still some 'wiggle-room' on where exactly the Clipper low will track (and at what strength the low will be), confidence has significantly increased on at least some light rainfall occuring Tuesday into Tuesday night over the Upper Peninsula. What still remains highly uncertain are the precipitation amounts, where the highest amount of precipitation will be seen, and how long the precipitation will linger over Upper Michigan; as of now, areas of the U.P. could see anywhere from to just a few hundreths of an inch of liquid to near half an inch, and precipitation could last for only as long as a 12-hour period to nearly 36-hours depending on the guidance you go with. Overall, this system will at the very least provide a slight reprieve to any fire weather concerns there may be as we head into the rest of the week.

Speaking of which, expect a general warming trend as we head towards the latter half of next week as a high pressure block currently over the Pacific Northwest deteriorates and shifts eastward early next week (thus the mostly dry weather on Sunday and Monday). This will allow for a more active pattern of Clipper lows followed by high pressure ridges to move through the area the rest of the week from Tuesday onwards. In addition, this will open us up to receive some Gulf air, increasing the moisture over the Upper Midwest as well as increasing temperatures to above normal. Thus, while we may see highs return back into the 70s across portions of the U.P. by the end of next week, with moisture from the Gulf being siphoned into the region, we could actually alleviate some fire weather concerns over us as we await our Spring green-up.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 659 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions look to be the predominant flight category today as a mostly dry cold front brings mid-level clouds across the area. While precipitation from the showers will try to reach the ground, given the dry air in the lower levels, nothing is expected to reach the terminals. Winds will remain NW generally behind the cold front, with gusts to 20 to potentially up to 25 kts possible this afternoon. While we could see some clearing early this evening, another shot of cold air advection could bring some lowering cigs and potentially even some -SHRASN showers to CMX and SAW near the end of the period early Sunday morning; MVFR cigs are certainly possible over those two terminals early Sunday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less this morning increase to 20 to 25 knots from the northwest over the eastern half of Lake Superior behind the cold front moving through today. While northwest winds are looking to slightly weaken to around 20 knots this evening, another weak shot of cold air advection behind the front is expected to increase the northwest winds back up to 20 to 25 knots over the eastern half of the lake once again on Sunday. As high pressure ridging builds in from the Canadian Prairies early next week though, expect the winds to drop down to 20 knots or less again by Sunday night and to remain that way until Tuesday morning. As a Clipper low descends into the Upper Midwest and approaches the western Great Lakes, expect the winds from the south to southeast across at least the eastern half of the lake to increase to 20 to 30 knots on Tuesday, with the winds backing with time as the low begins to track into the Great Lakes region. Behind the Clipper, we may see winds temporarily weaken to 20 knots or less Tuesday evening, before weak incoming cold air advection brings northwest to north winds of 20 to 25 knots back across the southern lakeshore on Wednesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.