textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow ends today as ridging moves through the region.

- Confidence continues to grow for widespread 2 to 8 inches of snowfall Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Highest amounts are expected in eastern Delta and Schoolcraft counties. Areas of blowing snow are also expected along the lakeshores.

- Highs in the upper 30s in the east to mid 40s in the west return on Friday before well below normal temperatures return for this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Lake effect snowfall ends across the north wind snow belts today as ridging moves in from the northwest and crosses the region this afternoon. As this occurs, some moderate snowfall rates and blowing snow have been seen at the office early this morning thanks to upslope flow enhancement and gusty winds, respectively, that are dwindling with time. Overall, while most areas in the north wind snow belts could see an inch or two of additional snowfall today, the higher terrain in Marquette County could see up to 3 more inches of fluffy snowfall as well as significantly reduced visibilities near the lakeshore until after dawn. Thus, the Winter Weather Advisory over Marquette County this morning will continue until 7 AM EST. In addition to the dwindling lake effect, expect the coldest temperatures of the work week today as highs generally only get into the teens across the area this afternoon.

Don't expect the cessation of snowfall to last all that long as the weak ridging moving through today has a strengthening Clipper low following hot on it's heels. The Clipper drops from the Northern Plains on Tuesday morning to the Straits of Mackinac at around 990mb Tuesday evening. As it does so, expect isentropic lift to bring a band of light to moderate snowfall from west to east across the U.P. Tuesday, starting over the western U.P. late tonight/early Tuesday morning. The greatest snowfall rates are expected over the eastern half of the U.P. Tuesday afternoon as some southerly flow off of Lake Michigan potentially brings some lake enhancement to the snowfall rates; snowfall rates could be as high as 1 inch per hour (heavy) in the eastern U.P. Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. In addition, with the snowfall being pretty fluffy (SLRs in the mid teens to around 20:1), the southerly gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph is expected to pick up the fresh, fluffy snow from the ground and bring areas of blowing snow to the Lake Michigan shoreline (as well as potentially the downslopes along Lake Superior too). With the moderate to heavy snowfall bringing around 2 to 8 inches across the area between early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening and areas of blowing snow further reducing visibilities along the lakeshores, this is currently shaping up to be a solid Winter Weather Advisory event across most of the area. There is even a possibility that a Winter Storm Warning could be issued for portions of the eastern U.P. for Tuesday (for example, Schoolcraft County). However, decided to punt winter weather headline decisions to the dayshift since they will be closer to the event and this isn't looking to be a strong winter storm.

Behind the Clipper Tuesday evening, expect lake enhanced becoming lake effect snow showers to develop over the northwest wind snow belts. While some patches of blowing snow and light snow showers are expected, as weak ridging returns to the area via a digging parent high moving from the Northern Plains towards the Lower Great Lakes, expect the snow showers to end over the northwest wind snow belts by Wednesday evening. While another Clipper low could impact the area by Thursday, there remains some uncertainty on where the Clipper will track; we may see some light snow showers, or we may see nothing at all. Regardless, expect WAA to return behind the Clipper as we head into Friday. The European EFI highlights well above normal high temperatures for the U.P. on Friday, and this is matched up well by the NBM as it has highs in the upper 30s over the east to mid-40s over the west. While those wishing for Spring to come quicker will enjoy the warmer conditions on Friday, prepare to be disappointed for this weekend as there is fairly high confidence that well below normal temperatures return behind a cold front late Friday. With guidance showing 850mb temperatures dropping to around - 25C this weekend, expect highs to once again drop down into the the teens; I wouldn't be surprised if lake effect snowfall returned as well, provided that Lake Superior remains mostly ice-free (or at least upstream of the ice-free areas).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 630 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Lake effect snow bands and blowing snow with northerly winds gusting to around 25 kt continue to result in IFR/TEMPO LIFR vsbys at SAW this morning. High pressure building in from the west is resulting in gradual improvement to MVFR vsbys and cigs at IWD/CMX, although temporary reductions to IFR can be expected at CMX for the first couple of hours of the TAF cycle. This high will gradually result in an end to lake effect snow at SAW as well, but conditions may not improve substantially until the late morning to early afternoon. MVFR cigs linger into the afternoon once the lake effect snow ceases, but a period of VFR is likely this evening into tonight. The next snowfall-producing system approaches by the very end of the TAF period, but its impacts will mainly be after 12Z Tue.

MARINE

Issued at 244 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots early this morning slowly dwindles throughout the day today as weak high pressure ridging moves in from the northwest. As this occurs, expect the heavy freezing spray across the lake to end from west to east as well, with the last of the heavy freezing spray ending over the eastern lake this evening. However don't expect the calmer conditions to last all that long as a quickly incoming (and strengthening) Clipper low digs from the Northern Plains to the Straits of Mackinac Tuesday. Ahead of the Clipper low's center, expect southerly winds to gust up to 30 knots over the far west to gales of 40 knots over the central and eastern lake, with heavy freezing spray returning over the north central and eastern lake too. Thus, a Gale Watch has been issued for the central and eastern lake for Tuesday. After the low passes, expect the winds to become northwesterly to around 30 knots with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots possible Tuesday night; expect moderate to heavy freezing spray to return with these stronger winds as well Tuesday night through Wednesday. With weak ridging moving into the region Wednesday night, expect the winds to die down Wednesday and Wednesday night, becoming 20 knots or less by Wednesday evening (freezing spray also ends around the same time too).

Confidence on the winds over Lake Superior decreases for Thursday as they will depend on track of a Clipper low. That being said, we can expect winds to increase again by Friday as strong warm air advection moves into the area, allowing for south to southwest winds to get up to 20 to 30 knots across the lake. As a cold front descends on the region late Friday, expect the winds to turn west/northwesterly, with gales and potentially moderate to heavy freezing spray making a comeback to start out this upcoming weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for LSZ162.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for LSZ240>248-263>265.

Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for LSZ243>248-264-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for LSZ249-250-266.

Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... None.