textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A mostly dry start to the week, save for maybe some sprinkles and very light rain showers today.

- Below normal temperatures are on-tap for today and Monday as highs only get into the 40s and 50s.

- There is high confidence now in a Clipper system bringing rain showers to all of the U.P. come starting Tuesday.

- Warmer weather with above normal temperatures is favored by the end of this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

The forecast period starts out pretty quiet as high pressure ridging builds in from the Canadian Prairies. However, with one last shot of CAA moving through the U.P. now through the rest of this morning, we are starting to see some light sprinkles and flurries move into the northern portions of the Upper Peninsula. These light rain/snow showers continue over mainly the central U.P. today, with the showers intensifying by this afternoon thanks to diurnal heating. However, only a few hundreths of an inch of liquid are expected out of these showers, and with temperatures projected to be above freezing today, no snowfall accumulations are expected. Due to the shot of CAA, highs today will be cooler than what they were the previous two days; expect highs in the 40s to 50s, making this Mother's Day a little chilly for outdoor activities. By the time the sun sets this evening, expect the skies to mostly clear out as the center of the high pressure begins to make it's way into the Upper Great Lakes. Due to the mostly clear skies, expect lows tonight to drop into the 20s in the interior to lower 30s by the Great Lakes. Monday may be a couple of degrees warmer due to the sunny skies. However, with cool, dry air still entrained at the sfc, expect high temperatures to still be limited to the mid to upper 40s to upper 50s. While RHs look to drop down into the 20 percents in the interior west on Monday, with virtually very little/light wind(s) and cooler than normal temperatures prevailing, no fire weather hazards are expected.

The pattern for the week changes on Tuesday as a Clipper low digs into the Upper Midwest and eventually Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, expect rain showers to move across the entirety of the U.P., with most of the region seeing a wetting rainfall of a quarter inch to half inch of liquid before the precipitation stops on Wednesday. While a rumble of thunder or two cannot be completely ruled out, with the better energy dynamics further south of us no thunderstorms are expected. As the Clipper passes to the south of the U.P. Tuesday night and Wednesday, we could see a transition over to lake enhanced rain showers over the northwest to north-northwest wind belts. While the rainfall amounts with the lake enhanced rainfall don't look to be all that impressive, it would keep cloud cover and rainfall going even into much of the day Wednesday.

Moving into the rest of this week, expect a general warming trend as Gulf air starts to get pulled northwards into the Northern Plains and eventually the Upper Great Lakes. Thus, while we can expect to see a more active pattern of high pressure ridges followed by shortwave lows to end the forecast period (i.e. this week), we can also expect the air over us to be more moist than what we've seen the past few days, not to mention that high temperatures could return into the 70s by the end of this week over the interior west.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR continues to be the main flight category through the forecast period. That said, cold air working in early Sunday could bring ceilings down to MVFR for the morning and early afternoon, but confidence is low (20% chance). Otherwise, NW winds peak at around 10 kts through Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Northwest winds of around 20 knots over the eastern half of Lake Superior early this morning increase to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon into early this evening thanks to another shot of CAA moving over the lake. However, as high pressure from the Canadian Prairies pushes in, expect the winds to lighten up to 20 knots or less late tonight. While the light winds continue through Monday, expect a Clipper low descending into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday to intensify winds from the southeast and south over the central lake to 25 to 30 knots, with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots possible; currently, the latest LREF brings around a 10% chance for low-end gales over the central lake on Tuesday. As the Clipper continues to progress out of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, expect the winds to turn to the northwest/north to 20 to 30 knots across most of the lake (but especially the central and east); some gales over 35 knots are possible again on Wednesday, but the current probabilities still remain below 25% for now. Behind the Clipper, a shortwave high pressure ridge moves in Wednesday evening, allowing winds to weaken to 20 knots or less by Wednesday night. However, with another Clipper low potentially impacting the area late in the day Thursday, winds could increase from the southeast and south to 20 to 30 knots once again late.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.