textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Impactful lake effect snow will continue through Friday. Additional accumulations of up to 6 inches in the east and 5 inches in the west are expected tonight into Friday. Blowing snow and reduced visibility will also make travel hazardous.

- Coldest air of the season, and since January 2019, will create dangerous cold conditions tonight through at least Saturday morning across Upper Michigan as temperatures will remain below zero tonight through Saturday for most of the UP.

- Temperatures below -15F and wind chills near -40F are likely tonight, with similar conditions expected Friday night.

- Those with outdoor plans, especially tonight into Saturday morning should take extra precautions to limit their time outside. Do not forget pets!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 421 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

GOES water vapor imagery continues to depict a broad upper level trough and negative height anomaly encompassing much of North America, anchored by a deep 490 decameter low centered just north of Lake Superior this afternoon. This is helping to usher in the coldest air mass so far this season as latest SPC mesoanalysis depicts 850 mb temperatures of -30 to -35C starting to moves over the western half of Lake Superior. Meanwhile, radar shows lake effect snow ongoing across the northwest winds snow belts from the Keweenaw to the eastern UP. Winter weather advisories are ongoing in these areas, with surface observations showing significant visibility reductions as gusty winds off Lake Superior and fine snow crystals contribute to blowing snow concerns.

The temperature forecast remains largely on track with a high degree of confidence as ambient air temperatures fall below zero this evening and do not recover back above zero until sometime Saturday afternoon. Lows tonight will commonly be around -20 F in the west and near the WI border, with readings closer to -10 for the rest of the UP. These cold temperatures coupled with the windy conditions will produce dangerous wind chill values as low as -45 F in the west and -35 in the central and east tonight into Friday morning. Values will not be quite as cold for Friday night into Saturday, but opted to extend the Extreme Cold Warning all the way through Saturday morning as temperatures remain below zero through the period and wind chill values continue to flirt with -35 in the west and -30 in the central and east. Conditions will gradually improve through Saturday as winds start to diminish and temperatures eventually climb back up above zero. That said, do not expect any big warm ups through next week as high temperatures remain capped in the single digits to low teens and overnight lows stay near or below zero well into the extended.

Regarding the snow, expect lake effect and blowing snow to continue to impact the northwest wind snow belts through Friday. Expect fine snow crystal growth to continue as the DGZ retreats below ground, but there appears to be enough QPF to still produce another 3-5 inches along the spine of the Keweenaw and other elevated terrain through Friday evening. Also extended the advisory in the east through Friday afternoon, with localized additional amounts of 6 inches possible in the norther part of Luce County. Blowing snow concerns will gradually subside Friday night into Saturday as winds start to diminish, but lake effect snow will continue in the favored locations through the weekend with relatively minor accumulations from Saturday onward.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 644 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

WNW lake effect snow persists tonight gradually shifting heaviest snowbands across the traditional NW wind snowbelts. Given the increased arctic airmass descending across the region, snow character will continue to be a fine powder very susceptible to blowing, drifting, and reducing visibility. CMX and IWD will continue to see vis <1 SM through the TAF period, with periods of <1/2 sm, especially at CMX where gusts 30-35 kts will be common. Further west at SAW, occasional LES showers are possible (handled with prob30 groups this morning and afternoon). Should heavier snow showers find themselves over the SAW airfield, vis could fall as low as 1 to 1 sm.

MARINE

Issued at 421 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

Little change in the forecast this period as northwest winds continue to gust to 25-35 kt across the Lake Superior in the wake of the cold front that passed over the lake this morning. This will continue to support Gale headlines across the eastern half of the lake into Friday afternoon, with gusts to 25-30 kt over the western half of the lake and small craft headlines for the nearshores as waves build to 10-12 ft tonight. Given the gusty winds, heavy freezing spray will also continue to impact the entire lake into Friday night as the coldest air mass of the season remains in place over the region. Winds will trend down below 20 kt across the lake by Saturday, with wave heights subsiding to 1-2 ft accordingly as surface high pressure moves over the Upper Midwest. Medium range guidance suggests winds will then remain below 20 kt through the weekend before potentially ticking back up into the 25-30 kt range on Monday with the arrival of another potential system early next week. Gale probs currently reside around 20-30% over the eastern half of the lake in that time period.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Blizzard Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for MIZ001-003.

Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday for MIZ001>005-009>012-084.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for MIZ002-004- 084.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ006-007- 085.

Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for MIZ006-013-014-085.

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for MIZ007.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for LSZ162.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Friday for LSZ240>242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243>248-264-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for LSZ265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.