textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect rain continues into tonight, turning to snow above roughly 1000' elevation in the central and west. A dusting up to an inch is forecast, up to 2 inches in the Michigamme Highlands. Travel impacts are not expected due to warm ground temperatures.

- A Gale Warning continues for northerly gales of 35 to 45 knots across most of Lake Superior, diminishing from west to east tonight.

- Temperatures will warm through the weekend, well above normal by Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Mid-afternoon water vapor imagery shows a midlevel trough over the upper Great Lakes, with upstream ridging over the Rockies, northern Plains, and Canadian Prairies. Deep moisture is exiting eastward, with drier air having made it into the western UP. A surface low analyzed at 1002 mb near the Soo and high pressure building in from the west is resulting in a strong pressure gradient, with 25-35 kt wind gusts common over inland areas, up to around 40 kt near the lakeshores. These winds should continue this afternoon before gradually decreasing this evening. Meanwhile, 850 mb temps are plummeting via strong northerly winds and should bottom out around - 7C tonight. Blustery winds This will set up delta-Ts in the -15 to -18 range, leading to a transition to lake effect rain (already occurring as of 2 pm). As temperatures gradually cool, expect rain showers to mix with and change to snow showers mainly above 1000' elevation in the west and central UP this evening into tonight. Forecast soundings show high RH in the boundary layer that extends up to roughly 1.5 km AGL...however, temperatures are quite marginal with the top of that boundary layer only at around -10C and surface temps only bottoming out around 30F in the coldest spots. Those air temps, along with warm ground temps, should greatly limit accumulation potential despite prolonged shower activity overnight. Wind fetch and moisture profiles favor the Michigamme Highlands for accumulating snow, with amounts of 2-3" not out of the question per the REFS probability matched mean. Otherwise, any accumulations should be a dusting to around an inch, with travel impacts not expected.

Low-level moisture and rain/snow showers linger Friday in the central and east before building high pressure dries things out from west to east. The first colder than normal night in some time is on tap Friday night with lows in the mid-teens to mid-20s. However, the near to below normal temperatures will be short lived, as a strong Pacific jet allows for the return of mild air flooding the CONUS and southern Canada. High temps are expected to rebound to slightly above normal values Saturday with mid-40s to near 50, and well above normal Sunday into Monday with highs well into the 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Rain and snow showers are ending at IWD and CMX, but lingering lake clouds will keep in MVFR restrictions at least into Friday morning. A return to VFR is expected late in the day at IWD and CMX. Lake effect showers linger at SAW the rest of tonight, mixing in with snow at times though little to no accumulations are expected. SAW stands a better chance at an occasional drop to IFR tonight, otherwise MVFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period. North winds are falling back at IWD, but continue to gust to around 20-25kt at CMX and SAW tonight into early Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 213 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Lake Superior: Northerly gales of 35 to 45 knots continue into this evening before gradually tapering off from west to east tonight. Significant wave heights max out around 11 to 16 feet this evening. Winds and waves continue diminishing through Friday as high pressure builds in. Southwesterly winds increase to 20-30 kt over the western half Saturday night, turning westerly at 30-40 kt over the east half on Sunday. A Gale Watch may be needed.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Northerly winds of 30-35 kt continue through this evening where a Gale Warning remains in effect. These winds remain elevated at 25-30 kt late tonight into Friday before diminishing as high pressure builds in. Winds should remain around or below 20 kt Friday night through the weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for LSZ245>250- 265-266.

Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... None.