textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix is expected this morning before temperatures warm well above freezing in the afternoon. There is the potential (40-70% chance) for a glaze of ice on surfaces to start the day, mainly in the western half of the U.P.

- Southerly gales to 40 knots are expected over the east-central open lake and along the nearshores of Marquette and Alger counties today.

- Active weather resumes this weekend along with warmer temperatures. A prolonged period of above freezing temperatures and higher dewpoints will bring increased snowmelt. This, combined with periods of rain showers and potential thunderstorms will result in river rises.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Early this morning satellite imagery and model analysis showed weak upper level ridging over the Great Lakes with a shortwave trough upstream, over southern Saskatchewan. Southerly flow ahead of the shortwave was bringing warmer air and moisture into the region with clouds spreading into the western U.P. Temperatures were pretty close to average over the central and east, 20s, while cloud cover and winds in the west were helping to keep temperatures in the low 30s.

Through the rest of the early morning cloud cover will spread across the remainder of the U.P. helping to keep temperatures from dropping much further or even beginning a slow rise. A band of precipitation is expected to develop over the western U.P. towards sunrise and then quickly move through the central and eastern U.P. through the morning as low pressure approaches and a warm front lifts through the area. Precipitation is expected to begin as snow or sleet and then quickly transition to freezing rain for an hour or two before temperatures rise above freezing. Wintery precipitation amounts will be light, less than a half inch of snowfall and up to a glaze of ice. Road temperatures were above freezing over the western U.P. though a few sensors had fallen below freezing over the central. Overall not expecting widespread impacts but any untreated roads in the central and eastern U.P. could develop a glaze of ice.

By early afternoon much of the U.P. will be dry as the low pressure moves from Saskatchewan to southern Manitoba with temperatures warming into the 40s and low 50s. It will also be breezy with south winds gusting to 30 mph and as high as 40 mph in the downslope areas near Lake Superior. A cold front associated with the low will move through MN and into the western U.P. this afternoon. Gulf moisture will surge northwards ahead of the front with a narrow corridor of dew points into the 40s. This will help to develop a band of moderate rain showers along the front as it moves through the U.P. late this afternoon and evening. Total QPF looks to be in the 0.2- 0.4" range. Rain should quickly come to an end overnight. The airmass behind the front isn't terribly cold and much of the eastern half of the U.P. will stay above freezing; highs on Thursday should reach into the 40s.

Generally quiet and warmer weather is expected to end the week as fairly zonal flow on Thursday and Friday give way to ridging by Saturday. That being said, there is a small (30% or less) chance that some snow and rain could be seen near Menominee Thursday night into Friday morning as a shortwave low passes through the Mid- Mississippi Valley. With highs continuing to get above freezing each day across the area (i.e. the 40s and 50s), expect a slow snowmelt as dewpoints are projected to remain below freezing. This in turn will lead to only slow river rises, which should limit flooding concerns for the rest of this week.

The big event for this forecast period looks to come in early next week as a robust low pressure system develops off of the northern Rockies. The warm front of the low is looking to move through sometime around Saturday night, with the warm sector of the low looking to remain overhead Sunday through Monday. Because of this, abundant Gulf moisture is looking to surge northwards over us and bring warm and moist conditions to the area early next week; dewpoints as of now are projected to be well above freezing, potentially even getting into the 50s while highs reach into the 50s, 60s, and potentially lower 70s near the Wisconsin border. With this synoptic setup making it easy for gusty winds from a potential LLJ to reach the sfc and with PWATs looking to get to 1.25 inches or higher, we may see increasing snowmelt across the region in conjunction with heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. This could accelerate river rises across the area, which in turn would heighten flood concerns. While this is still several days out, we will continue to monitor this situation as it evolves.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 737 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A disturbance that is currently centered along the US/Canada border at North Dakota will bring multiple rounds of precipitation (and associated flight category restrictions) this TAF period. The first is ongoing as SN turns to a wintry mix of SN, FZRA, and RA this morning. Different weather models show a considerable spread in the timing and intensity of flight categories with this round, and CMX has already bounced between MVFR and IFR in the 11Z hour. As IWD is only around 30% likely to fall to MVFR, will keep that site VFR this morning. CMX will range from MVFR to IFR, though there is a roughly 40% chance of breaking into VFR between rounds of precipitation today. SAW is nearly 90% likely to fall to MVFR and over 60% likely to fall to IFR, though there is some uncertainty in the timing of these deteriorations as well as whether or not recovery occurs. For the second round this afternoon to evening, RA will be the only precip type expected as temperatures should be well above freezing. Once again, model spread is high in the ceilings and visibility at all sites. SAW is most likely to see a period of LLWS with the second round, with CMX also seeing at least some period of LLWS around 00Z, but uncertainty in the timing is too high to include at this issuance. By 06Z, all sites will be clear of precip, though some lingering low clouds may cause lingering MVFR conditions especially at CMX.

MARINE

Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A warm front will push through this morning with a short period of mixed wintery precipitation. Winds will increase to gales up to 40 knots in the nearshores by Marquette and Alger counties and in the east-central open waters; expect the winds to decrease to 20 knots or less over the western half of the lake by this afternoon as the cold front pushes through, bringing rain showers with it. The eastern half also drops down to 20 knots or less for a couple of hours behind the cold front Wednesday evening. However, with some cold air advection seen behind the cold front late Wednesday night, expect winds to increase from the west to 25 to 30 knots late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the lake, with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots possible (up to a 20% chance, highest along and just east of the north-side of the Keweenaw). With zonal flow setting up shop overhead for the latter part of the workweek, expect the winds to gradually dwindle on Thursday, eventually becoming 20 knots or less across Lake Superior by Thursday evening. The light winds look to remain for the rest of the week as high pressure ridging moves through on Saturday. However, as the warm front of a low dropping out of the northern Rockies moves through on Saturday night, expect winds to increase from the south to 20 to 30 knots. The strong winds look to continue through the day Sunday as the warm sector of the low remains overhead.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Snowmelt is expected to increase over the weekend into Monday. Expect minor snow melt today as temperatures warm into the 40s to low 50s, dew points rise above freezing and breezy southerly winds develop. Rain showers are also expected this evening with rainfall of 0.2-0.4". Drier and cooler air will move back into the area tonight into Thursday which will slow the snowmelt. The main concern is Sat-Mon with temperatures warming into the 50s on Saturday and upper 50s and 60s Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures combined with overnight lows above freezing, rising dew points and southerly winds will begin to accelerate the snowmelt. Additionally, periods of heavy showers are likely Saturday night through Monday along with the possibility of thunderstorms. NBM probabilities for an inch or more of rainfall are in the 60-70% range Sat-Mon. While a widespread rainfall of around an inch is becoming likely even higher amounts are possible should thunderstorms develop. Those living near or planning to recreate around area rivers should keep up with the forecast and river levels.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ249-250.

Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LSZ266.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ221-248-250.