textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be closer to average for the end of the holiday weekend along with notably drier air as dew points fall back into the 50s to low 60s.

- Largely dry weather looks to persist across Upper Michigan through Monday, with rain and thunderstorm chances returning towards the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 237 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Early this morning RAP analysis and GOES water vapor imagery continue to show a high amplitude upper level ridge north of Lake Superior, over Ontario and extending north into the Canadian arctic. Underneath the ridge relatively zonal flow remained in place across the northern U.S. with an embedded shortwave moving through the midwest. Thunderstorm associated with the shortwave were staying well south of the area but spreading some high cloudiness into the western U.P. It was much cooler tonight with most locations in the 50s as drier air continued to push into the area from the north.

High pressure extending south over the area from the Hudson Bay will continue to influence the weather today, keeping the weather dry along with sunshine. Overall it will be another pleasant day with highs in the 70s to low 80s, cooler along the Lake Superior shoreline. With dew points in the 50s it shouldn't feel too humid today. Expect light northerly flow turning east through the day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The upper level pattern this afternoon features a highly amplified ridge extending from northern Ontario through Hudson Bay and into the Canadian Arctic. Beneath the ridge, quasi-zonal flow is place across the northern tier of the CONUS, with an embedded disturbance noted upstream of the Great Lakes on GOES water vapor imagery over the Upper MS River Valley. This feature will remain south of the area today as it tracks across WI and mostly keeps any shower activity south of the state line aside from a few isolated showers in the west. As such, expect a pleasant holiday afternoon and evening across the UP as northerly low level flow yields warm but less humid conditions with temperatures mainly in the 70s to low 80s, staying a bit cooler near the Lake Superior shoreline.

Similarly pleasant and dry conditions will persist from Sunday into Monday as high pressure maintains its influence over the region amidst a gradual warming trend. Sunday will see similar high temperatures to today while overnight lows fall closer to seasonal norms in the low to mid 50s for the next few nights. Expect highs to rebound into the upper 70s to mid 80s across most of the area by Monday afternoon as onshore low level flow subsides.

Shower and thunderstorm potential resumes during the middle of next week as high pressure over Hudson Bay and Quebec is replaced by upper level troughing which allows the next series of disturbances to approach the Upper Great Lakes. A surface cold front looks to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as temperatures continue to increase into the 80s and returning moisture helps to build instability on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE per latest ensemble guidance. Another wave follows on Wednesday as PWATs surge back above 1.5", with WPC placing all of Upper Michigan in a slight risk for excessive rainfall in the Day 5 Outlook. Will continue to monitor these trends as the finer scale details come into better focus in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with patchy mid to high level cloud cover clearing out through mid-morning. Calm winds turn to breezy onshore east to northeasterlies gusting 10-15 kts in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Visible satellite reveals mostly clear skies over Lake Superior this afternoon as high pressure sits north of the lake. Surface observations show light northerly winds below 15 kt and waves of 2 ft or less over most of the lake, with the exception of some stronger breezes to around 20 kt over the western arm of the lake. Expect those to subside tonight, with benign conditions persisting into the beginning of next week as surface high pressure remains over the lake through Monday. More active weather will bring renewed chances for thunderstorms by the middle of next week, but still do not see any signals for winds strengthening above 20 kt over the next five days.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.