textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief period of moderate snowfall is possible (20-40% chance) in the east this morning, which could lead to some slick rural roads and periodic low visibility for the AM commute.

- General weather pattern supports periodic low-impact precipitation, with high temperatures above freezing for most supporting some slow snowmelt.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Early morning GOES satellite imagery reveals broad ascent across the Upper Great Lakes region as a shortwave digs across Ontario early this morning. Regional radar analysis shows a swath of 15-30 dbz returns from southern WI northward through the western UP and west half of Lake Superior. Despite the active radar, observations at area ASOS stations have shown very little of anything actually making it to the ground, save for a few in far northern MN. In the western UP, RH values at IWD and CMX at ~1:30 AM EDT (time of writing this discussion) are still just shy of 50%, so its really no wonder why nothing is reaching the surface yet. Further east, surface RHs climb upwards of 70-90%, so snowfall should have less of an issue reaching the ground this morning over the next few hours through daybreak. Still, model soundings show plenty of mid to low level dry air to overcome. Have drastically lowered PoPs and QPF (thus snowfall amounts) this morning given the antecedent dry conditions largely winning out, though I fear that snow across the west half could likely be removed entirely from the forecast. Trends will continue to be monitored. Should snow eventually make it to the ground in the west half of the UP, a trace to 1" max is the most likely scenario. As for the east, the 00z HREF and CAM soundings continue to suggest a quick hit of moderate (0.5"/hr) snowfall rates around daybreak, albeit short lived before precip departs the area by Noon.

Once snow ends this morning, another dry period sets up as local ridging resides overhead. High temperatures continue to climb, with mid-40s forecast for the interior west. Ample drying may occur again this afternoon/evening with interior west and south-central RHs falling into the 30s. Considering the healthy snowpack across the UP, there is no concern for fire weather. A weak surface low then crosses over the area Wednesday. Isentropic lift may be able to touch off some mixed precip (largely rain or snow) across the far northern fringes of the UP, but the bulk of guidance now suggests precip staying well north. Modest mid to low level WAA will help daytime highs climb into the low to mid 50s for much of the south- central and interior west on Wednesday.

Better PoPs are seen Thursday as a ridge-riding shortwave pushes into the region, though the ensembles struggle to come to a consensus about what the resulting surface feature looks like. The ceiling for impacts remains low however as the LREF chances for 2" of snow in 24 hours remains around 10-20%. The increased pressure gradient as the low deepens after it departs and high pressure builds over the Plains will lead to some gustier winds to near 30 mph near the shores of Lake Superior by Friday morning, and the cool northerlies will make Friday the coolest day of the week as highs for all except the southern UP remain at or below freezing and the morning lows surrounding Friday are generally in the 10s. Temperatures rebound for the weekend into the beginning of next week as ridging builds in the lee of the Rockies and expansive high pressure will be in the vicinity. Upstream of that, troughing will move into the Rockies by mid next week, and while ensembles are consistent in some signal of low pressure in CO next week, there is little to no agreement on how/when any theoretical CO Low makes it to the Great Lakes. Ensembles do have individual members that give notable snow to such a feature next week, though when considered against the rest of the ensemble, chances are around 15 percent of an Advisory-or-better snowfall.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions could deteriorate to MVFR after Tue 06Z as the next clipper moves through the area. Light snow showers will overspread the TAF sites, causing flight restrictions in the Tue 06-12Z time frame. IFR conditions cannot entirely be ruled out, but have opted to carry tempos for MVFR only at this time. The disturbance will be quick moving with improving conditions back to VFR by late morning. In addition, southwesterly winds will be strong with gusts of 20 to 25 kts through Tue 12Z along with a LLWS threat. As winds taper off later this morning, they will shift to the northwest.

MARINE

Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The weather pattern for the next week will be defined by multiple weak disturbances which will each bring wind gusts of around 25 kt, but are 20% or less likely to be strong enough to produce gales. The first such system works through the area this morning, bringing south to southwest wind gusts to 25-30 kt with a few brief gale force gusts possible (~20% chance) along the US/Canada maritime border. Winds fall below 20 kt again this afternoon. A weak system brings a brief period of near 25 kt gusts over the eastern half of the lake Wednesday morning before calming again in the afternoon. A stronger system looks to bring gusts of around 30 kt (once again with around 20 percent chances of a few gale force gusts) Thursday and gusty conditions linger into the weekend as the low deepens over Canada while high pressure builds over the Plains. With waves building to 5-9 ft late this week and cool northerly winds behind the system, some heavy freezing spray is expected, though the timing and location may shift depending on how the low tracks through the region.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.