textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight rain showers will continue into morning across the eastern UP. Showers and thunderstorms may redevelop by this afternoon across the east.

- Cooler and generally more pleasant weather begins Sunday. Daily chances for rain return Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

GOES Water Vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight a broad upper level low rotating over northern Ontario this morning, with multiple impulses embedded within the flow. A cold front is currently analyzed upstream in Minnesota pressing eastward, while a swath of isentropically forced rain is moving eastward through northern Wisconsin and Menominee County. GOES GLM has observed a few lightning flashes, but its been primarily flash free for the past hour. Mild temperatures have been observed across the forecast area so far, with most areas removed from the immediate Lake Michigan lakeshore dipping into the 50s. Those by the lake have hovered in the 60s so far. For the remainder of the night, shower activity will continue moving into and through Menominee County, with perhaps an isolated shower developing north across middle Upper Michigan. By morning, CAMS and current trends suggest shower activity will be focused into eastern Upper Michigan, before a break in precipitation by mid-morning. Temperatures may dip a few degrees, but most locations will only cool as low as the low 50s.

Today, the upstream cold front will press west to east through the forecast area. Dinurally driven instability will help restart shower and thunderstorm activity in eastern Upper Michigan by afternoon while dry conditions prevail in the west half. Gusty winds will develop with daylight and cold air advection aloft in the west half though. Current thinking is for widespread 20-25 mph westerlies, with winds 30-35mph in the Keweenaw. These elevated winds will result in dangerous swimming conditions for beaches in Alger County by afternoon and a Beach Hazard Statement has been issued.

Winds will lighten this evening while a cooler airmass settling over the region kicks off a few days of below normal temperatures. Latest guidance continues to suggest Sunday highs will peak in the low to mid 60s, except closer to 70 by the Bay of Green Bay. These daytime highs will warm into the mid 60s to low to mid 70s for a majority of the coming week. Overnight lows in the 40s will be widespread away from the lakeshores. A weak wave moving through Sunday morning may support early light rain, but the next best chance for rainfall comes Monday afternoon/evening in the west half thanks to another shortwave rotating through the broad trough aloft. Thereafter, daily rain chances return for the Great Lakes but differences in the track/location of each wave suggest lower confidence. There does continue to be indications of a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall event moving through the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest ensembles suggest primary risk being to our south though.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 713 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals today; however, developing cloud bases will result in MVFR ceilings this evening at KIWD/KCMX. Gusty winds will develop today, with KIWD/KSAW likely gusting 20-25kts and KCMX peaking 30-35kts this afternoon. Winds are expected to settle this evening, with KCMX potentially gusting near 20kts overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Elevated winds near 30kts develop today in the vicinity of the Keweenaw Peninsula and northward toward Isle Royale ahead of a cold front moving through the region. After the frontal passage, winds settle to near 20kts or less through midweek; although daytime winds may increase to near 25 kts near the lakeshores Sunday afternoon.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement from 3 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.