textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Alger, Schoolcraft, and Luce counties through early this morning. Lake effect snow showers continue in this area through tonight with 2-4" of additional snowfall. Localized snowfall to 6" is possible as a narrow band of moderate lake effect snow may set up this afternoon and evening.

- Cold temperatures continue today with wind chills in the negative single digits and negative teens to start out the first day of 2026.

- Northwest gales up to 40 knots are expected through today over the eastern half of Lake Superior along with freezing spray over much of the lake.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Early this morning 500mb model analysis and water vapor imagery showed an upper level low over the Hudson Bay with ridging over the western U.S. This was keeping the region under northwest flow aloft with weak shortwaves passing through. Lake effect snow showers continued in the northwest wind snowbelts in the eastern U.P but had weakened in the west with drier air in moving into the low levels. Winds were also becoming more WNW shifting the bands eastwards. Temperatures were in the single digits over the U.P except it was a bit warmer with low teens along the Lake Superior shoreline. The combination of cold temperatures and breezy winds was bringing windchills down into the single digits below zero to mid teens below zero.

Today, northwest flow aloft will continue over the region as the storm system that brought blizzard conditions to the U.P earlier this week remains anchored over the Hudson Bay. This will bring another weak shortwave through the Great Lakes today. Winds will continue to become more westerly shifting the lake effect into the west-nortwest wind snowbelts. As the shortwave passes south of the U.P low to mid level moisture will spread into at least the western U.P which should help to create an uptick in the lake effect snow over the west. Increasing convergence will also help focus the lake effect snow in the east where a more narrow dominant band could form this afternoon into the evening. Overall snowfall will be in the 1- 3" range through tonight over the west and 2-4" range in the east but could not rule out up to 6" locally.

Outside of the lake effect, snow flurries can be expected with temperatures only climbing into the single digits and teens. Windchills in the teens below zero this morning will rise to the single digits below zero this afternoon.

While Arctic air continues to flow in from the northwest the rest of this week into this weekend, expect the lake effect snow to generally lighten up with time as the troughing weakens over the Upper Great Lakes and we slowly warm with time. Besides the lake effect snow the next weather of note comes around Saturday as another Clipper low moves through the region. While model guidance is generally keeping QPF amounts on the lighter side, we could squeak out a couple of inches of fluffy over the U.P., with the NW wind snow belts potentially seeing an additional few.

As we head into next week, expect temperatures to trend towards above normal, with high temperatures potentially getting above freezing again by the middle of next week. In addition, there is a chance that we could see a shortwave bring a few inches of wet snowfall overtop of us come next Monday; while this won't be nearly as impactful as the recent blizzard we just experienced, this could be enough to cause some travel concerns via slick roads and reduced visibilities should this come to fruition.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 614 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Lake clouds keep MVFR ceilings in at IWD and CMX, while low-end VFR will be more common at SAW through the period. A weak disturbance moves south of the area this afternoon, and although most of the snow directly associated with this system will remain south, did include a PROB30 for IFR vsby at IWD for the potential for the snow to brush that terminal. Lake effect snow may reorganize at CMX in the afternoon/evening with low confidence on timing, but PROB30 was used for this potential as well. Otherwise, expect gusty winds at CMX throughout the period, with gusts up to 25-30kts possibly leading to blowing snow at times.

MARINE

Issued at 158 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Northwest winds of 30 knots to gales of 40 knots continue across the lake the rest of today as Arctic air continues to cycle into the region. In addition, with the strong winds and cold air overhead, heavy freezing spray is expected to continue across all but the far western lake into Friday. As the winds gradually weaken through the period and we warm with time, expect the heavy freezing spray threat to end by this weekend and for the gales to cease as a Clipper low approaches Friday night; while we may see northwest winds strengthen again to 20 to 25 knots behind the Clipper late Saturday into Saturday night, winds become 20 knots or less again by Sunday. The light winds of generally 20 knots or less are expected to continue through next week as warm air advection continues across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ006- 007-014-085.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ241-250-251-267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for LSZ242>249-263>266.

Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ244-245-250-251- 264>267.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ248-249.

Lake Michigan... None.