textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers taper off this morning.

- Temperatures finally return to around normal this weekend, continuing through much of next week.

- Widespread light snow is expected Sunday night into Monday morning, followed by lake effect snow downwind of Lake Superior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Current RAP analysis features steep ridging over the west coast, and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS with an embedded closed low dropping into the Tennessee valley. At the surface, high pressure is sprawled out over the Plains, supporting persistent northerly flow into the UP. In spite of midlevel dry air, flow off of Superior is keeping in plenty of lower-level lake clouds, and though radar returns (where they exist) are light, plenty of surface stations over the north-central and western UP continue to indicate light snow falling over the area. With that, some additional light snow totals below an inch will be possible by sunrise. Otherwise, cloud cover is keeping temperatures a couple degrees warmer than expected, with most of the area hovering in the teens so far and only expected to bottom out around 5-10F the rest of tonight.

As we head into the daytime hours, surface high pressure becomes centered over the central and southern Plains, resulting in slowly backing winds over the UP. This, in combination with drier air in place, will allow lake effect to taper off through the morning for most. That said, flow off of Superior persists in the eastern UP at least through the afternoon, and at least some of the hi-res continues to favor some banding into Alger county for much of the day. There, some more light totals well below an inch will be possible. Meanwhile, with 850mb temperatures climbing to near -6 to - 8C by the afternoon, highs come in much warmer than in recent history. Look for afternoon highs in the lower/mid 20s under sunny skies for most. Temperatures fall back into the single digits by early Sunday morning while clouds begin to spread in from west to east ahead of our next approaching shortwave.

The overall pattern across Canada and CONUS the remainder of the forecast period includes large scale ridging building up the west coast and Rocky Mountains, with broad troughing fluctuating across eastern CONUS. This maintains the average northwest flow into the Great Lakes, thereby allowing additional surface troughs and clippers room to slip into the region. The first comes Sunday night, pressing west to east through the region into early Monday. Current thinking is for a widespread inch or two of snow. Another surface high builds into Ontario, gradually filling into the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will likely result in a period of lake effect behind the trough on Monday, which will gradually diminish late Monday or Monday night.

Beyond this, guidance is keen about a more impactful clipper low pressing into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region late Thursday/Friday. Latest GEFS and EC ensemble still suggest plenty of uncertainty, which translates to low confidence in any sort of impact. For what its worth this far out though, the signs are there for a strong wind event with widespread light to moderate snow if the stars align.

Near normal temperatures are slated to continue for a majority of the coming week. Overnight lows mostly follow the same trend, with temperatures trending towards above normal by Sunday night, but then gradually settling near normal next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Variable IFR/MVFR conditions will settle into prevailing MVFR at Upper Michigan terminals as lake effect snow showers continue to diminish overnight, though some patches of IFR cigs could persist in the west as low level moisture lingers into Sat morning. Gusty north- northwest winds to 15-20 kt will also diminish overnight and become light by Sat morning, with conditions eventually trending VFR 18-22z Sat as high pressure builds into the region.

MARINE

Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Northerly winds around 20-25kts persist across the east-central portions of the lake into the early morning hours, but winds fall below 20kts across the entire lake by mid-morning. Light winds for the rest of the day give way to increasing southwest flow late tonight into Sunday. Expect gusts to near 25kts ahead of the next trough. By afternoon, these increase to near 30kts from the south across the east half. Behind the trough, northwest flow near 20- 30kts is expected, with highest winds expected across the east half. After these winds lighten Monday night, expecting light winds below 20kts through at least Thursday ahead of the next system.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.