textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and pleasant weather today as temperatures run cooler than in previous days. Temperatures remain near normal this weekend through much of next week.

- Rain shower and thunderstorm chances return for Sunday and will be on and off in the middle of next week. Strong to severe storms are not expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Afternoon conditions are quiet in the wake of the shortwave and cold front, courtesy of the weak high pressure ridging extending overhead from IA/IL. Visible satellite shows a plume of wildfire smoke spanning the Northern Plains across IA and southern MN, but sfc observations do not indicate this is currently resulting in vis restrictions and significant air quality impacts. GOES WV imagery shows broad mid level troughing across central Canada which largely will not change until mid next week, yielding quazi-zonal flow over the Upper Great Lakes. This means that through early next week, precip chances will be supported by diurnal instability and driven by transient shortwaves/frontal boundaries.

The rest of today remains dry. Highs will be more seasonable in the 70s to low 80s under mostly sunny skies. Southwest low level flow points toward lifting the aforementioned smoke into the region with the HRRR smoke model suggesting this will be overhead by this evening. Left mention out of the gridded forecast for now given the HRRR model disagreement with the RAP/Canadian smoke models as well as no surface impacts are expected. That said, hazy skies are possible before cloud cover increases tonight. Mostly dry conditions continue tonight as temps settle into the 50s to low 60s, coldest in the interior. Chances for showers return from the west late tonight as a weak frontal boundary sags south from northern Ontario alongside a shortwave. Limited and capped elevated instability (<500 J/kg) with strong shear (~50 kts) will be present so thunder can't be ruled out with this elevated convection, but strong to severe storms are not expected. This initial round hangs out mostly over Lake Superior and the Keweenaw, but isolated showers could grace the west and northern shores into Sunday morning (20-30% chance). PoPs expand to the rest of the UP the remainder of Sunday as diurnal instability builds, the front continues to sag over the CWA, and a upper level jet streak passes overhead. Instability will be run of the mill for meager summertime convection (mean values well below 1000 J/kg, 90th percentile reaches near 1000 J/kg over the west and south-central) with continued strong shear up to 40 kts. Given lackluster moisture and forcing, severe storms are not expected. CAMs are not in great agreement on coverage and timing; some of which have little to any precip whatsoever (HRRR). Unsurprisingly, precip probabilities reflect this unimpressive set up with only 20- 50% chances for amounts exceeding 0.25 inches.

Dry weather returns for Sunday night and Monday. Lows dip into normal temps in the upper 40s to upper 50s. The rest of the forecast sees a slow trend to slightly cooler than normal temps as highs trend toward upper 60s to mid 70s for the end of the work week with lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Shortwaves Tuesday and Wednesday bring low chances for showers and storms (mostly 15-30% chance), then drier weather is favored into the weekend as stronger high pressure returns.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 756 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail across Upper Michigan under mostly clear skies this evening, with some mid to high level clouds noted upstream over Minnesota and Ontario in association with a weak disturbance progged to slide across the region tonight into Sun morning. This will bring PROB30 shower chances to all terminals after 06z tonight. Still expect VFR conditions through the TAF period as latest HREF guidance only shows a 20-30% chance for MVFR conditions, but can't rule out some intermittent bouts of lower cigs. Also can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder to accompany showers, but chances are low enough (15-20%) as to not warrant inclusion in TAFs. Winds turn south-southwesterly tonight but generally stay below 10 kt through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Lake Superior winds continue shifting to the southwest this afternoon as channeling along the Keweenaw shores and near Isle Royale forces wind gusts to around 25 kts. Winds then fall mainly below 20 kts tonight, settling further to 15 kts or less on Sunday. Rain showers over the lake tonight may lead to additional fog development Sunday/Sunday night. With the exception of northeast winds gusting up to 25 kts Thursday morning near Granite Island, winds likely (75% chance) remain below 20 kts lakewide the remainder of the forecast through next week.

West-northwest winds this afternoon over northern Bay of Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan back southerly by this evening around 10- 15 kts. Winds increase to 15-20 kts on Sunday, then quickly fall off for Sunday night. Winds and gusts likely (75% chance) remain 15 kts or less the rest of the forecast through next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.