textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation will develop over the U.P. on Saturday morning ranging from rain the the far west to a snow/freezing rain mix in the central and all snow in the east. This could result in slippery surfaces including untreated roads. Expect temperatures to rise above freezing by afternoon with precipitation becoming rain from west to east. Snow accumulations of up to 3" are possible in the Keweenaw, less than an inch elsewhere.

- Another period of light mixed precipitation is possible Saturday night as a cold front pushes south through the area.

- A somewhat active pattern continues next week, with multiple systems bringing additional precipitation chances to the U.P.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

The U.P. was precipitation free this afternoon with generally sunny skies over the west and south. Upstream low level moisture and somewhat colder was spreading south across Lake Superior under northerly flow, with a low cloud deck over the windward side of the Keweenaw and over the eastern U.P. A brief period of fog was observed over the Keweenaw late this morning but quickly dissipated during the early afternoon. Satellite imagery and model height analysis showed an upper level high over the southwestern U.S. with a ridge extending north into the intermountain west. The next shortwave that will impact the area tomorrow was passing through the Pacific Northwest along the northern extent of the ridge.

A progressive pattern is expected over the next week as the western ridge breaks down and generally zonal flow forms over the northern tier of the U.S. This will bring quick moving, low amplitude shortwaves through the region. The first of those will arrive late tonight into Saturday bringing a period of isentropic lift as warm air advection develops over the region. Widespread precipitation is expected over the northern and eastern U.P., starting as rain in the west, a freezing rain and snow mix central and mainly snow in the east. A transition to rain will occur from west to east through the day with all of the U.P. above freezing by late afternoon, the west reaching as warm as 50F. Snow accumulations in the north central and eastern U.P. will generally be less than an inch. Over the Keweenaw up to 3" of snowfall is expected during the morning hours. Untreated roads may be slippery until warmer air arrives in the afternoon due to any wet snow accumulations and potential light glaze of ice.

A cold front will push south across the area on Saturday night into Sunday bringing another chance for precipitation to the area. A relatively narrow band of rain and snow is expected to develop along and immediately behind the cold front as it drives southwards across the U.P. Models are not in great agreement on how this will evolve though models have trended to more of a rain scenario with a brief period of light to moderate snow before ending. Any accumulations should be less than an inch.

On Sunday through Monday a sfc high pressure will build into the area from Manitoba and Ontario. It will be cooler with highs in the 20s to low 30s, 5 to 10 degrees below average. There is a chance that we could see some lake effect precipitation with northerly flow over the area. Sunday morning inversion heights are fairly low so would expect light snow showers or possibly freezing drizzle for typical northeast wind upslope areas (terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties). Sunday night inversion heights are somewhat higher, up to 4kft but 850mb temps of -10C to -12C make for a marginal deltaTs. The NBM keeps things dry so deviated from that guidance to include a mention of snow showers in the upslope areas on Sunday. Any snow accumulation should be minimal.

Tuesday through Thursday the temperatures will be near or below average with multiple chances for rain and snow as additional low amplitude shortwaves quickly traverse the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 832 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

LIFR conditions continue at SAW this evening as a low cloud deck and visibility restrictions impact the terminal. Elsewhere, VFR is prevailing at IWD and CMX. However, expect another wave to approach the area late tonight, resulting in deteriorating ceilings to MVFR at IWD and CMX as well before a batch of wintry precipitation leads to further degradations to IFR or even LIFR into Saturday morning. Snow and mixed precipitation is most likely at CMX and SAW, where ceilings and visibility will likewise be lowest. Still, IWD could be grazed by some rain showers and IFR restrictions into Saturday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Northerly winds below 20kt can be expected through this evening. Winds shift southeasterly by Saturday morning and increase to 20kt and as high as 25kt over the central part of the lake, near and east of the Keweenaw. A cold front will push through on Saturday night with northeast winds to 30kt developing and continuing through Saturday night along with moderate freezing spray on Sunday morning. Probabilities for gale force gusts with this front remain low, 10- 20%, and not anticipating any gale headlines at this point. As high pressure builds over the lake on Sunday winds will diminish through the day. Winds will ramp up again on Monday night as they become southerly 30+ kt in response to an approaching low pressure. There is a 20-40% chance for winds to reach or exceed gale force Monday night through Tuesday morning. Winds shift northerly to 30kt as a cold front drops south behind the departing low pressure Tuesday night into Wednesday, moderate freezing spray will be possible.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.