textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for precipitation persist throughout the week into early next week. Thunderstorms will be possible at times, but severe weather is not expected.

- Temperatures remain below normal this week into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

As a shortwave low over northeast Wisconsin and the U.P. this afternoon lifts into Ontario by tonight, expect the wrap-around moisture to continue bringing mostly light rain showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder to the area, mainly in the central and east where rain chances are the greatest. While there may be a couple hundred J of CAPE that causes a couple of thunderstorms to develop by the afternoon hours across the area, given the cloud cover across most of the area this morning and being located to the north of the shortwave (in the wrap-around moisture section), limited thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening to 30% or less; no severe weather is expected as the ingredients for it are just not there (no wind shear with height, very little CAPE, etc.). With some weak CAA moving in from the west behind the shortwave though, expect highs in the western U.P. to be relegated to the 60s, whereas the central and east could sneak into the lower 70s.

Expect below normal temperatures and on-and-off rain chances to continue through the rest of this week as an upper-level troughing pattern remains overhead via a low near Hudson Bay. During the rest of the week, expect highs to generally be in the 60s with a few spots getting into the lower 70s. Still keeping an eye on a Clipper low that is starting to move into Saskatchewan this afternoon. However, with the track of the low moving ever-so-slightly further south in comparison yesterday, thinking rainfall amounts will be even less than previously predicted; the latest LREF brings a 60 to 75% chance for over a quarter inch of rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday night along the Wisconsin border, whereas the chances in the Keweenaw are around 10% for the same time period. Expect the daily shortwave action to continue until a shortwave ridge moves into the central CONUS early next week, breaking down the upper- level troughing pattern overhead. This may give us a day or two of a break in the daily to near-daily precipitation; however, another Clipper low dropping down could bring rain chances back over us by the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Main aviation concerns are fog potential tonight and potential for lower flying conditions due to rain Wednesday afternoon. Early this evening, rain showers are moving off to the east of the terminals and dissipating with the loss of diurnal heating. As a result, the thunderstorm threat has ended. Earlier rainfall has cooled and moistened the lower levels at SAW, and it is here that the fog threat is highest, provided that lower VFR clouds clear out. Enough of a signal to add MVFR fog to the TAFs, but IFR cigs cannot be ruled out (~30% probability). Aside from the fog, VFR conditions should prevail until at least Wednesday afternoon, when an area of rain will spread across the UP from west to east. Best probability of MVFR or lower cigs/vsby is at IWD, while PROB30s were included for MVFR vsby at CMX/SAW due to lower confidence.

MARINE

Issued at 1235 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue across Lake Superior the rest of today and tonight as a shortwave low lifts from northeast Wisconsin and the U.P. into Ontario. However, a Clipper low over western Saskatchewan this afternoon digs into the Northern Plains tonight before heading into southern Lower Michigan Wednesday night. As this occurs, expect to see winds from the northeast pick up to 20 to 25 knots over the western arm of the lake Wednesday, before dying back down to 20 knots or less again Wednesday evening. While winds behind the low do look to increase from the northwest still over the eastern half Lake Superior on Thursday, the chances for gales have dropped off as only wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are now expected. The gusty northwest winds look to continue through Thursday night before falling to 20 knots or less again by Friday evening. Expect the calmer winds to continue through the weekend as upper-level troughing keeps bringing weak shortwaves in until early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.