textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is expected Thursday night into Friday, with a moderate probability of light freezing rain also possible in the counties bordering Wisconsin. Snow totals are expected to remain below 4 inches, except in the Keweenaw and eastern UP, where there is a 40- 60% chance of exceeding 4 inches. Untreated roadways may become slippery.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for eastern and central Lake Superior Thursday night into Friday. More gales are likely (70-80% chance) Sunday into Monday.

- Temperatures will average above normal through Saturday, then become sharply colder with lake effect snow Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Water vapor and visible satellite imagery reveal mostly cloudy and dry conditions in place across Upper Michigan this afternoon within a west-northwest flow regime aloft. Light precipitation echos noted on radar across the eastern U.P are struggling to reach the ground, owing to dry air in place in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Cloudy and dry weather look to stick around through most of Christmas Day as high pressure traverses Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes, with temperatures staying close to normal values in the mid to upper 20s.

A shortwave trough will move across the region Thursday night and Friday, bringing the next round of wintry precipitation to the area. Precipitation type remains the primary forecast challenge with this feature as a warm nose aloft yields the potential for light freezing rain or sleet to develop late Thursday night into Friday morning. Models have been fairly consistent in depicting the highest chances (~50%) for measurable freezing rain over the counties near the WI border, with chances generally remaining below 20% elsewhere. Relatively minimal QPF amounts should help to limit more significant impacts as chances for any location to receive as much as a tenth of an inch of ice are mostly around 10% or less. Snow amounts also remain mostly on track, with chances to exceed 4 inches or more generally staying confined to the Keweenaw or the far east (40-60%) while other locations or more likely to see 1-2 inches at most through Friday morning. Nonetheless, those looking to travel Thursday night into Friday should be prepared for slick roads and mixed winter precipitation even as forecast precipitation amounts remain below thresholds for headlines.

Then expect another fairly benign period from Friday afternoon through Saturday, with temperatures likely climbing up above freezing for most of the area on Saturday. A stronger system is poised to develop later in the weekend as a more potent trough moves out of the northern Rockies, spinning up a deep surface low in the vicinity of southern Lower Michigan that then lifts into southern Quebec by Monday. This will likely bring a return of windy conditions and a lake effect snow regime for northwest wind snow belts, especially across the eastern U.P. by early next week. This system will also usher in a return of much colder temperatures as deep longwave troughing over Hudson Bay becomes the dominant synoptic feature through much of next week. Look for highs more commonly in the teens to low 20s across the U.P., with lows flirting with sub-zero readings again in the interior west as we approach the new year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1226 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

MVFR and IFR ceilings will develop at all terminals tonight following the passage of a surface trough. These low ceilings will slowly improve Thursday to VFR at KSAW/KIWD by afternoon, potentially at KCMX too by late afternoon. But the next system dips into the Upper Great Lakes Thursday evening, resulting in low level wind shear at KIWD and potentially a mix of light snow and freezing rain. Ptypes at KCMX/KSAW are more likely to be snow.

MARINE

Issued at 348 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Southerly winds of 20-30 kt over Lake Superior this afternoon will veer northerly tonight at 20-30 kt as surface high pressure passes to the north over Ontario. This will bring a relatively short lived period of marginal small craft conditions to most of the north facing Lake Superior nearshores tonight through the first half of Christmas Day as winds gust to 25 kt and waves build to 4-6 feet. This will give way to another round of stronger southeasterly breezes Thursday night into Friday as the high shifts east of the region. Will upgrade the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning with the afternoon package as probabilities for gale force gusts continue to reside around 50-70% over the central and eastern parts of Lake Superior in that time frame. Another round of gales is looking increasingly likely late Sunday into Monday as a strong surface low develops in the vicinity of Lower Michigan and lifts northeast into Quebec. This will lead to high confidence (70-80%) in northwesterly gales on the back side of the system, with a 40-60% chance of storm force gusts of 50+ kt as well as increasing potential for heavy freezing spray. Mariners will want to continue to pay close attention to the forecast given the potential for hazardous conditions on Lake Superior later this weekend into the beginning of next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for LSZ244-245-264- 266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.