textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A few lake-breeze driven showers and thunderstorms are possible (up to around a 30% chance) in the interior west and central UP this afternoon. More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through Saturday (30-80% chance).

- Seasonably warm temperatures with highs in or close to the 80s dominate this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Expect fairly calm weather throughout the period, even though some rain and thunderstorm chances will move through the area from time to time. The rain chances could even come as early as this afternoon as high pressure ridging in the lower levels peaks today. While this will keep mostly sunny skies overhead, given that some diurnal instability will be created by the afternoon hours and the ridging will allow the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan lake breezes to move inland, there could be a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms that develop in the interior west and central as soon as early this afternoon, potentially continuing on until early this evening. Thus, while some CAMs do show us dry still for today, there is up to around a 30% chance that some showers and garden-variety thunderstorms move over some of the interior west and central this afternoon. Thankfully, with the ridging bringing limited wind shear over the area, no severe weather is expected today.

With the ridging cresting today and leaving starting on Thursday, expect warm air advection to continue over da Yoop today into Thursday. Thus, expect temperatures to climb into the upper 70s along the lakeshore to mid 80s inland today, and into the 80s to potentially even around 90 in a few spots over the interior west and along the southerly downslopes along Lake Superior on Thursday; be sure to stay hydrated if you're working outside today and Thursday.

A shortwave low lifting off of the Northern Rockies Wednesday night is looking to potentially bring additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms back across the area late Thursday through Saturday. While this low is looking to miss us well to the south, because it is also looking to interact with the cold front of a low passing over Hudson Bay at around the same time, we could see some garden- variety convection as well as some synoptic-scale light rainfall during the late-week. Again, no severe weather is expected as there looks to be very little wind shear within the atmosphere to work with over the Yoop during this nearly 3-day stretch. While certainly not guaranteed, the NBM has around a 40-75% chance across the entire Yoop that at least a wetting (quarter inch or greater) rainfall will be seen within a 24-hour period late Thursday through Saturday, with the greatest probabilities being seen in the west where the driest ground conditions are; hopefully the rainfall will make a dent in the drought conditions observed in that part of Upper MI.

More high pressure ridging moves in this weekend as temperatures closer to normal are seen behind the low. However, don't be surprised if we see a near rinse-and-repeat of what we see for the last half of this week as another shortwave low could bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the area near the end of the period (early to mid-next week).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 657 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions are still expected to prevail through the rest of today through tonight. There is a low (<25%) chance that some lake breeze-induced convection could occur over IWD and SAW during the early-to-mid afternoon hours, but confidence is still too low to even include PROB30s in their respective TAFs at this time. While we look to become nearly calm tonight, there is a very low (but non- zero) chance we could see some marginal LLWS over IWD and CMX just before 12z Thursday morning (thinking around 10-15% chance).

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Light winds of generally 20 kts or less continue the rest of this week into early next week even as high pressure ridging today gives way to weak troughing from a shortwave passing to our south and a cold front from the north for the last 3 or so days of this week. While the shortwave interacting with the cold front could bring showers and thunderstorms to Lake Superior late Thursday into Saturday, no severe weather is expected. In addition, while some small areas of fog are being seen in Lake Superior early this morning, given the lack of spatial coverage over the lake, no Marine Dense Fog Advisory will be issued at this time; if the fog does expand significantly in area though from the time this discussion was written, one will be issued in that case.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.