textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold temperatures down into the -30s, and some spotty wind chills down to the -40s are being seen this morning. Stay bundled up if you have to be outside!

- While expected to not be as cold as this morning, temperatures down into the negative teens and wind chills in the -20s to potentially -30s are expected tonight.

- Generally light lake effect snow returns today across the NW wind snow belts. However, some blowing snow and moderate snowfall rates could be seen east of Marquette late this afternoon into this evening. A Winter Weather Advisory for the areas east of Marquette along Lake Superior cannot be ruled out.

- Lake effect becomes westerly by Monday morning before lifting away Monday afternoon.

- Lake effect snow showers look to return for the mid week as multiple shortwave lows cycle through the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

With mostly clear skies being seen early this morning (as can be viewed via satellite imagery) and local observing stations showing light to calm winds, temperatures have plummeted across Upper Michigan, allowing lows to drop down into the -20s with some spots even getting to around -30F. With some spots also getting a light breeze this morning (up to a few mph), observing platforms have also picked up wind chills getting down into the -30s in spots; I would not be surprised and am actually expecting a few spots across the U.P. to have wind chill mins dip into the -40s before the sun warms us up later today. While I was tempted to upgrade the area to an Extreme Cold Warning for this morning, decided against it as I'm thinking the somewhat calm winds before dawn will generally limit the wind chills below -30F in the east and -35F in the west to just a few spots here and there. However, with cold temperatures expected once again tonight (but not as cold as this morning), decided to keep things simple and extended the Cold Weather Advisory through tonight into Monday morning as well for much of the central and west. Extended the current Cold Weather Advisory to include Alger, Delta, Schoolcraft, and Keweenaw counties as at least temperatures/wind chills in the -20s have been seen/are expected. However, dropping-off Keweenaw and Schoolcraft counties after this morning as lows/wind chills look to remain just above -20F tonight into Monday morning.

Outside of the cold weather this morning through Monday morning, expect lake effect snow showers to return to the northwest wind snow belts today as the storm system causing the winter weather problems down in the Mid-South today lifts through the Lower Great Lakes this evening. While delta-Ts in the lower 20s will help empower lake effect development, remnant shortwave ridging lifting through the St. Lawrence Seaway and then building in from the Northern Plains looks to limit the lake effect snowfall amounts and rates (i.e. keeping drier air over us, meaning that Lake Superior has to do more work in modifying the air overhead via latent heat release in order to produce snow showers). Thus, generally thinking we will only see around 1 to 3 inches of new fluffy snowfall today through this evening over the northwest wind snow belts before the winds turn westerly Monday morning and the lake effect leaves Upper Michigan by Monday afternoon as another shortwave low approaches from Manitoba. However, recent CAMs guidance has shown that a mesolow could potentially form over eastern Lake Superior and make landfall east of Marquette (thinking mainly in Alger County) sometime this afternoon or early this evening. The snowbands of this mesolow could bring snowfall rates as high as 1/2 inch per hour as well as stronger winds that could create reduced visibilities via blowing snow. Should this be realized, a short Winter Weather Advisory may need to be hoisted up for the areas near Lake Superior east of Marquette this afternoon into this evening, as travel could become very difficult due to the low visibilities (potentially localized whiteout conditions for an hour or two in spots?).

Moving towards the mid-week, while the below normal temperatures are expected to remain across the area, we shouldn't be as cold either as highs look to generally get into the single positive digits to lower teens and lows look to only get down into the negative single digits. This is probably due to lake effect snow showers picking up across Upper Michigan once again as a shortwave low dropping down from Manitoba Monday night into Tuesday is followed by subsequent shortwave lows through the middle of the week. Thus, while we may have some breaks in the lake effect snowfall for when the next shortwave low approaches, expect the precipitation to be fairly continuous as delta-Ts are looking to range in the lower to mid-20s C. Some of the medium range guidance (namely the Canadian suite) has a long-lived north to potentially even northeast-wind lake effect event occurring from around Wednesday night/Thursday morning to Thursday night/Friday morning; an inverted trough could take shape over the Upper Midwest late this week, causing north to rare northeast wind lake effect snow. Will continue to monitor this situation, but even if this occurs, not expecting much more than light to at most moderate snowfall rates over the north to northeast wind snow belts from mid to late this week. We look to finally have a noticeable break from the lake effect snowfall and potentially even below normal temperatures near the end of this week as high pressure ridging moves through and brings with it much more normal to potentially even slightly above normal air over us; wouldn't be surprised if we even approach 30F come the Saturday time period for a high. However, don't expect the nicer weather to last all that long, as looking to the end of the forecast period and beyond more Arctic air is looking to cycle down into our neck-of-the-woods.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conditions will give way to MVFR at IWD and CMX as winds become northwesterly and lake effect clouds come back onshore. Lake effect snow showers could bring IFR vsby at times through tonight at CMX, though these conditions should be intermittent. Handled snow showers at CMX with TEMPO and PROB30. VFR conditions should return to IWD as the flow becomes more southwesterly late in the TAF period. VFR conditions will prevail at KSAW.

MARINE

Issued at 345 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

The generally lighter winds of around 20 knots or less turn north to northwesterly to 20 to 30 knots by late this afternoon over at least the eastern half of the lake as a weak dry, somewhat dry cold front pushes through the region. With it, expect to see Heavy Freezing Spray return to at least the eastern half of the lake by this afternoon, with the continuing gusty northwesterly winds keeping Heavy Freezing Spray going even as a another shortwave low approaches from Manitoba on Monday. Ahead of this incoming shortwave, expect winds to back to the southwest, with low-end gales becoming possible over the western half of the lake by the afternoon hours (up to a 60% chance according to the 00z run of the REFS). With the potential gales returning, we can also expect a return of Heavy Freezing Spray over the west half by Monday afternoon as Heavy Freezing Spray continues over the eastern lake; at least portions of the Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings are expected to be extended into the middle of this week as gusty winds are expected to continue over Lake Superior thanks to multiple shortwaves rotating through the region. While the potential low-end gale threat looks to end over the western lake by Monday night, expect gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots (with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots possible over the east on Tuesday) to continue through the middle of this week; the winds may even become north and potentially even northeasterly as we go from the middle towards the end of the week as shortwaves continue to cycle over us and an inverted trough potentially develops over the Upper Midwest; currently, wind gusts are expected to be in the lower to mid-20 knot range during this time period. High pressure ridging moving over the area late this week/this upcoming weekend looks to drop winds down to 20 knots or less again.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ001- 014-085.

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for MIZ002>006-009>013-084.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday for LSZ162-240>244-263-264.

Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for LSZ162-240>242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ245>248-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday for LSZ249-250-266.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... None.