textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake effect snow showers linger across the central and eastern UP this morning, diminishing through the afternoon.

- Well above normal temperatures settle over the region late this week and coming weekend, with highs above freezing each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Early morning KMQT radar returns reveal transient lake effect bands diving into the central UP. Lake induced troughing and convergence have kept going LES longer than expected, thus have updated the short term to reflect additional light snowfall amounts between MQT, ESC, and MUN this morning. Under the influence of increasing sfc high pressure, wind observations this morning remain rather light, though a few 15-20 mph gusts are still being found near the immediate lakeshore, thus the blowing snow threat remains minimal. Regardless, as lake effect snow lingers across the central and eastern UP through the early morning hours this morning, take it slow as heavier LES showers may briefly reduce visibility below 1 mile.

Aforementioned sfc high pressure becomes established directly overhead the Great Lakes today, bringing welcomed sunshine and continued light winds. Lake effect snow may linger in the east- central through morning but should taper off as encompassing dry air eats away at lake induced convection and light winds reduce convergence. Much of the area will push the 30 degree mark today with portions of the west and s-central likely breaking freezing. This warming trend will be the main story headed into the weekend and early parts of next week. Upstream troughing becomes established across Alaska, western Canada, and the west US coast, leading to downstream positive height anomalies across the east half of the lower 48. Daytime high temperatures aim to reach 35-45F (10-20F degrees above normal for this time of year!) tomorrow through at least next Wednesday. This may create unstable ice conditions on the shores of the Great Lakes and on inland lakes, so those with vested interest should continue to monitor ice conditions. The nice thing is that we still fall below freezing each night, and even though sunshine will be present here and there, the February sun angle isn't quite as wrathful as March/April rays are on ice cover.

Looking into next week, the quiet and warm period finally begins to break down Tuesday/Wednesday as zonal flow aloft allows the passage of shortwaves into the Great Lakes. Western troughing begins to lift into the Plains, suggesting an active period with synoptic systems making their way into the Great Lakes. At this time, deterministic operational models all suggest varying solutions regarding a low pressure system providing widespread precipitation to the region Wednesday, but vary significantly on the overall timing, strength, and location. This period of active weather will be a target of opportunity for future forecast packages, but for now, enjoy the warm and dry stretch of weather this weekend!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1218 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

MVFR lake effect cigs have been slow to clear out with CMX and SAW still reporting restrictions. However, VFR should return soon as drier air overspreads the area with strengthening high pressure. Will trend toward the Thu 09-12Z time frame for that VFR onset. VFR will then be the predominant flight category at all TAF sites through the duration of the TAF period. Light and variable winds will create no impacts.

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less look to continue across Lake Superior until a cold front moving through northern Ontario Thursday night through Friday brings west to northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots back over the eastern half of the lake late Thursday night through Friday. As more high pressure ridging builds in behind this, expect the winds to die down to 20 knots or less again by Friday night, with the light winds remaining over Lake Superior the rest of this weekend and early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.