textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers continue through the work week as multiple disturbances pass through the region.

- An area of moderate to heavy snowfall (as well as some areas of blowing snow) will continue over the eastern U.P., mainly from Munising eastward and north of M-28 through tonight. Areas of blowing snow and occasionally moderate snowfall rates are also expected over Copper Country through tonight.

- While confidence is high (70%+) on the occurrence of a heavy lake effect band over the east this afternoon through tonight, high uncertainty remains on the exact location of said band through Thursday morning.

- Very cold wind chills in the east tonight, with values expected to be around -20F over Luce County tonight into Thursday morning.

- Cold weather persists through the end of the week, with daytime highs in the single digits to teens and overnight lows mostly staying below or near zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Today's upper level pattern continues to feature large scale troughing over much of the eastern half of North America, anchored by deep low pressure centered over James Bay. Multiple shortwave disturbances continue to rotate through the base of this feature into the Great Lakes, producing ongoing lake effect snow and blowing snow over favored areas of Upper Michigan. Latest radar and GOES satellite imagery depict multiple lake effect snow bands impacting the northwest wind snow belts, with the heaviest bands focused over Alger County aided by increased convergence in the vicinity of a lingering surface trough over eastern Lake Superior. This continues to produce locally heavy snowfall rates as high as 1" per hour per latest HREF guidance, with gusty northwest winds contributing to blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Winter Storm Warning thus remains in effect for the eastern UP through Thursday morning and continues to reflect the heaviest snow totals along the Lake Superior shoreline between roughly Munising and Grand Marais, where upwards of another 7 inches of accumulation are possible through Wednesday morning. One of the primary ongoing forecast challenges will be how this banding evolves tonight into Thursday morning as orientation gradually turns more northerly and the main convergent band shifts westward through Alger County. Hi-res guidance continues to struggle with the westward progression of this band, likely owing in part to to overestimating the amount of ice cover over south- central portions of Lake Superior. The HRRR and a handful of other solutions do depict heavier banding shifting into eastern portions of Marquette County and even as far west as Marquette during the day on Thursday, so will have to watch this progression for potential upward revisions in snow totals and/or additional winter headlines over the next few forecast cycles.

Elsewhere, will continue the Winter Weather Advisory in the west/Keweenaw through Thursday morning as lake effect brings another 1-3" with ongoing blowing snow and visibility concerns not showing much improvement overnight. Have also issued a Cold Weather Advisory tonight into Thursday morning for Luce County as cold air drainage in northerly flow out of Ontario drops overnight lows to around -10F in the eastern UP, with wind chills falling to around -20F.

Another upper level disturbance dropping into the region will keep mainly light lake effect going into Thursday as flow begins to favor the north or even northeast wind snow belts, with minor accumulations ongoing through Friday. Will finally start to see some more noteworthy changes in the pattern by this weekend as the 500 mb low currently over James Bay migrates south to the Tennessee River Valley, allowing positively tilted upper level ridging to build into the Upper Great Lakes from the west. This will mostly bring an end to lake effect this weekend, with daytime temperatures rebounding closer to normal highs in the 20s for the first time in several weeks. Another weak trough may bring some light snow early next week, but temperatures look to stay closer to normal values for much of the extended as a more progressive pattern takes hold and 850 mb temps reside closer to 0 to -10 C as opposed to the negative 20s we have been experiencing in recent weeks. Stayed close to the middle ground NBM solution through the long term, with highs mainly in the 20s and lows in single digits above to the low teens through much of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

As winds shift from NW to N, lake effect SHSN will impact all of the TAF sites tonight. Once the precip band over SAW at 03Z shifts out by 08Z, low-end VFR will prevail through the morning until winds shifting to be more out of the N will bring more consistent -SHSN to the terminal this afternoon along with MVFR ceilings. Model guidance is widely spread on the details of ceilings and visibility at CMX and IWD this period, though with chances of -SHSN at CMX over 55 percent until after 00Z, VFR for any meaningful period of time is unlikely until then (less than 20 percent). IWD's chances of precipitation for any given hour are lower (around 20-35 percent), but probabilities for at least MVFR or lower throughout the entire period are similarly high (75+%). CMX even carries up to 30 percent chances of 1/2SM or lower visibility around 13-17Z this morning.

MARINE

Issued at 353 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Northwest winds have dropped to 15-25 kts across much of Lake Superior this afternoon, save for a few spots still up in the 30 kt range over the eastern half of the lake in association with the convergent lake effect band noted on radar. Winds will mostly remain in the 15-25 kt range through Thursday as they gradually shift northerly or even northeasterly through Thursday night. Expect the heavy freezing spray over most of the lake to slowly shrink in coverage with time through Thursday. As the winds turn northerly to 20 to 25 knots late Thursday into Friday, expect heavy freezing spray to return, especially as the winds increase up to 20 to 30 knots by Friday behind the next shortwave (highest winds over the eastern lake). As high pressure pushes into the region by Saturday, expect the winds to become 20 knots or less again; expect the light winds to remain the rest of this weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ001>004-084.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ006- 085.

Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for MIZ007.

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ007.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this morning for LSZ240>244-251-263-264-267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ249-250-266.

Lake Michigan... None.