textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- An impactful winter storm will move into Upper Michigan this evening through Wednesday. Expected impacts include heavy snow, strong winds, and mixed precipitation. Highest snow amounts along the northern tier from the Keweenaw to northern Baraga and Marquette Counties. Highest ice amounts to a tenth of an inch most likely across the south central U.P. and along the Wisconsin border.

- A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Keweenaw, north central, and east tonight through Wednesday. A winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Ontonagon and the counties along the Wisconsin border.

- Another low pressure system could bring impactful winter weather to the U.P. again on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Weak ridging extending southward from Ontario is leading to quiet conditions thus far, with visible satellite revealing clear skies across the UP. Fog and low stratus is apparent over the southern Lake Superior, and is generally staying offshore along a line from northern Baraga county to Pictured Rocks. However, from around Grand Marais and eastward, fog and low stratus are making it onshore. Still, this appears already to be diminishing from north to south, my assumption being that there is less of a cap over the water compared to previous days with temperatures aloft below freezing. While on the topic, surface temperatures are coming in quite warm under sunny skies, peaking well into the 40s across the interior- west and south-central UP. Elsewhere, temperatures remain above average, but hover more in the upper 30s/low 40s. Following a sunny afternoon, clouds increase into the evening ahead of our much- advertised winter system.

Attention then quickly turns to the system moving into the region tonight. Currently, a negatively-tilted upper trough is swinging over the Rockies, with a 984mb surface low analyzed over far southeastern Montana. A warm front extends east of this across the Northern Plains and into far west-central WI. This should lift slightly northward and stall over the southern UP or northern WI tonight into Wednesday. Forecast details are mostly in line with previous thinking as models have shown decent consistency in recent runs in painting the swath of highest snowfall totals across the northern tier of the UP, and lower totals to the south where more mixed precipitation occurs. Still, some guidance (in particular the Canadian) continues to depict a swath of higher QPF across the southcentral U.P., and the forecast thus remains sensitive to subtle shifts in the track of the system. Precipitation type remains tricky to pin down as model soundings continue to depict a warm layer aloft straddling the 0C isotherm through tonight and much of Wednesday morning, yielding the potential for periods of snow, sleet and freezing rain pretty much everywhere in the UP (though, again, highest ice totals are expected in the southern half of the UP towards the WI border). Surface temperatures will also linger near and possibly above freezing tonight near the WI border, allowing some plain rain to mix in as well, particularly towards Menominee County. At the same time, profiles will be susceptible to dynamic cooling as higher precipitation rates could be enough to send the column below freezing and result in higher snowfall totals over the southern half of the UP.

Eventually, expect the stationary front over us to occlude on Wednesday and push northwards. This will in turn change the precip type to all snowfall Wednesday morning, with most of the snowfall becoming relegated to the east-wind upslopes of Marquette County and the Keweenaw, where some moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall could be seen from time to time. However, to make matters more confusing, a dry slot looks to briefly move in Wednesday afternoon before wraparound moisture works in behind the occluding system later in the afternoon/evening. This could introduce more freezing drizzle/rain into the mix over the south-central and eastern UP as we briefly lose our ice crystals. Bottom line, be ready for a messy system with a melange of winter precipitation types on the table, particularly closer to the WI border.

As far as totals, we remain confident in a widespread 4 to 8 inches over the northern half of the UP, with higher amounts up to 10in over north-central Marquette county courtesy of upsloping amid easterly flow. The Keweenaw looks to pick up totals in excess of a foot (70% chance by 00Z Thursday) with a couple more inches expected Wednesday night. Our southern UP counties look to pick up around 2- 5in of snow, highest north of US-2. Much of the UP should pick up at least trace ice amounts, but the best chances for honest-to-goodness measurable accumulations in excess of a tenth of an inch are across the southern UP, closer to the WI border, as well as in the eastern UP away from Lake Superior.

Finally, strong winds will also contribute to hazardous conditions, particularly in the Keweenaw where winds could gust as high as 50 mph out of the east tonight and Wednesday. Low snow to liquid ratios will not be especially conducive to blowing snow, but the combination of strong winds from a somewhat atypical direction along with heavy, wet snow could still produce localized visibility reductions along with some sporadic power outages. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect over the northern half of the UP, and Winter Weather Advisories continue in the southern half. As the forcing weakens across the area Wednesday night, expect the snowfall to lighten, with some spotty freezing drizzle possible over the central and east as the moisture aloft gets lost and the lower levels fail to reach the DGZ. However, another winter storm could move over the area around Friday as a Colorado low lifts through the Plains into northern Lake Michigan; there may be several inches of wet snowfall with this second system too, though there are notable differences in track and timing among various ensemble suites as this next system interacts with the remnants of our midweek storm. Behind this, expect more 'winter-like' conditions as a shot of reinforcing cold air drops down from Canada and potentially brings more light snowfall over us this upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Flight restrictions at all TAF sites by Wed 09Z as a winter storm enters the region. Expect gradual deterioration to LIFR/VLIFR early this morning as snow overspreads the area. Initial ptype at onset, though, could be a -fzrasn mix before transitioning to all snow. In addition, LLWS will be a threat in the Wed 06-12Z time frame with winds in excess of 50 kts under 2k feet. At the surface, easterly winds will be especially strong at CMX with gusts up to 50 kts. Elsewhere, expect gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range at SAW and IWD. These winds combined with the snow will create blowing snow and whiteout conditions. Snow is expected to diminish this afternoon, but there will be little improvement in conditions due to the persistent gusty winds.

MARINE

Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

NE winds are on the increase across the western arm of the lake this afternoon as the approaching system tightens the surface pressure gradient across the lake. Expect gales over the western arm by the early evening to then spread to the rest of the lake tonight into Wednesday, with storm force gusts of 50 kt, possibly higher to 55 kt in the west tonight through Wednesday evening. Elsewhere, gales up to 40-45kt remain more likely. That said, sporadic storm-force gusts to 50kt will be possible over the central portions of the lake by Wednesday morning. Winds gradually fall below gales into Thursday morning. Freezing spray concerns will likely be somewhat mitigated by warmer air temperatures, but could certainly still see some patches of freezing spray as strong 20-30kt easterly winds persist through the end of the week with the approach of another system on Friday. Winds shifting over to the NW remain elevated above 20kts through the weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ001-003.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for MIZ002-009>012-084.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ004- 005.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006- 007-013-014-085.

Lake Superior... Storm Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ162.

Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ242-245>250-263- 265-266.

Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for LSZ243-244-264.

Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ248-250.