textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather through tonight ahead of a windy Sunday, with gusts in excess of 35 mph possible (30-60% interior, 80+% at the lakeshores). More lake effect rain is possible (up to 60%) Sunday.

- Northwest gales of 35-40 kts over eastern Lake Superior on Sunday.

- Another low pressure passes north of the region Tuesday, leading to another round of potential gusty winds and lake effect precipitation (~30%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Early morning GOES WV imagery place the UP in the middle of a closed low over the Lower Great Lakes and a shortwave over northwestern Ontario. Beneath these features is high pressure extending from Quebec across Upper MI and down to the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, yielding calm conditions. Favorable radiative cooling in the west has brought temps down into the 20s. Stubborn low stratus still streaming over the east has helped insulate, keeping temps in the 30s. The rest of today remains dry as high pressure dissipates and shifts southeast. The shortwave to the north pivots northeast away from the region, but is quickly replaced with a deeper more vigorous trough for tonight into Sunday. Temps warm into the mid 40s to low 50s today with plenty of sunshine.

Warmer tonight in the 30s to low 40s as southwest WAA picks up. A clipper system tracking over far northern Ontario on Sunday sends a cold front across the CWA Sunday morning. Breezy west winds are expected in the wake of that front gusting 20-30 mph courtesy of CAA and pressure rises. Higher gusts are expected in the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior up to 35-40 mph. Temps once again peak in the 40s to low 50s early in the afternoon. This system also manages to clip the northeastern half of the CWA with lake effect/upslope rain showers (mainly 20-50% chance).

The cycle repeats itself early next week. Ridging in the wake of this clipper results in another dry period with lighter winds Monday through Tuesday morning. The next shortwave in the clipper train looks to arrive Tuesday afternoon, though once again the low looks displaced too far north and too weak to drive synoptic precipitation for the UP. Colder air in the wake of the clipper will bring lake effect precipitation chances (20-40%) that persist through late week as winds turn northerly. Guidance has trended back on gust potential, not expecting widespread gusts like Sunday's forecast. Temps return near normal with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1246 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Lake clouds continue to bring MVFR ceilings to SAW tonight, while VFR prevails at IWD and is returning to CMX. SAW improves to VFR into the pre-dawn hours. VFR prevails at all terminals for Saturday, with light southwest winds eventually picking up into the evening ahead of an approaching system. Gusts to around 20kts will be possible at all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 316 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Lake Superior: Southwest winds increase today to 10-20 kts today, strongest over the west where gusts are expected around 25 kts as high pressure weakens and departs to the southeast. A clipper tracking to the north tonight and Sunday increases winds further into tonight to 15-25 kts ahead of the cold front; gusts around 30 kts in the west. Significant wave heights rise to 4-8 ft over the west in response. West winds follow the cold front, becoming 20-30 kts for Sunday lakewide. Strongest winds are expected over the east half where gusts are generally forecast between 35-40 kts. There is potential (30-60% chance) for gales to at least 35 kts over the west early on Sunday with the frontal passage, but only opted for a Gale Warning in the east where confidence was higher and duration was much longer. Chances of exceeding high end gales remain low (20-40% chance) and are highest for the southeastern waters between Big Bay, Stannard Rock and Grand Marais. Higher waves expand to the east, rising to 7-15 ft in the east; waves remain 4-8 ft in the west. High pressure ridging returning Sunday night tapers winds off from west to east, with winds falling below 20 kts Monday morning. Another clipper system tracks north of the lake Monday night into Tuesday, however this system is weaker and guidance has trended back on resulting winds. Gale potential remains low (10-30% chance). High pressure keeps winds seasonally benign the rest of the forecast.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Southwest winds increase this afternoon and evening to 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. West winds behind the cold front with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds fall below 20 kts Sunday evening, remaining near or below 20 kts through the remainder of the forecast.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.