textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold again tonight with temperatures down into the negative teens and wind chills in the -20s to potentially -30s across the western and central UP. Stay bundled up if you have to be outside!

- Generally light lake effect snow returns this evening across the NW wind snow belts. However, some blowing snow and moderate snowfall rates could be seen east of Marquette late this afternoon into this evening. Lake effect becomes westerly by Monday morning before lifting away Monday afternoon.

- Lake effect snow showers look to return mid week as multiple disturbances pass through the region.

- Cold weather persists through the end of the week, with daytime highs in the single digits to teens and overnight lows mostly staying below or near zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

This afternoon's upper level pattern features an elongated upper level trough spanning much of Canada from the Labrador Sea to the prairie provinces. This places Upper Michigan and Lake Superior in west-southwest flow aloft on the southern periphery of the trough, with 850 mb temperatures in the -20 to -25C range supporting afternoon temps in the high single digits above zero across much of the area. At the surface, winds have turned northwesterly as a weak surface low is analyzed near the eastern end of Lake Superior. This will spur a fresh round of lake effect snow in the northwest wind snow belts this afternoon through tonight as delta-Ts climb into the 20s, but still thinking amounts will be limited to a general 1-3 inches of fine crystals in the Keweenaw and the east as profiles remain on the dry side and the DGZ continues to reside near or below the ground. Some of the CAMs do notably continue to depict a mesolow coming ashore in the vicinity of Alger County early this evening, which could potentially yield locally higher snowfall rates and visibility reductions in blowing snow. Will continue monitor the potential need for a short fused winter weather headline or SPS this evening should this solution come to fruition. Otherwise, expect another cold night as temperatures fall back into the negative teens in the central and western interior, with single digits below zero expected elsewhere. Cold Weather Advisory thus looks to be on track tonight through Monday morning as winds chills drop to around -30F in the western UP and -25F in the central UP tonight. Will need to monitor the potential to expand the advisory farther east and into the Keweenaw, but currently expect these areas to remain just out of the -20F wind chill threshold.

Lake effect bands will push offshore Monday morning as winds shift southwesterly ahead of the next low dropping our of Manitoba and crossing Lake Superior Monday night. This system will likely only provide a dusting of snow for most areas although the Keweenaw could pick up a quick inch or two Monday night into Tuesday morning. Chances for light snow then remain in the forecast for much of the coming week as multiple disturbances rotate around a parent upper low over northern Ontario through Hudson Bay, but do not see any signals for particularly impactful snowfall in any one period at this time. As for the temperature forecast, large scale troughing will remain over the region and keep temperatures below normal through most of the coming week. Generally expect afternoon highs in the single digits to teens each day, with overnight lows mostly in the single digits below zero to slightly above zero near the lakeshores each night. There is some indication that temperatures will rebound into the 20s near the end of the week as upper level ridging over the western CONUS shifts eastward.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 732 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conditions will continue at SAW through the TAF period under WNW winds that will eventually back to the southwest. Elsewhere though, lake effect clouds and snow have impacted IWD and CMX and will persist through the night. Best chances for lake effect snow will remain at CMX where periods of IFR/LIFR will also be possible through the night. A return to VFR could be as early as Mon 12Z at IWD, but do not expect CMX to improve above MVFR in this TAF period. In addition, winds will begin gusting up to 20 kts at CMX early tonight, increasing to 25 to 30 kts late tomorrow morning. An uptick in sustained wind speeds above 12 kts can also be expected at SAW late in TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 327 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Winds have shifted northwesterly over Lake Superior today as a weak 1025 mb low is analyzed over the northeast corner of the lake, yielding 25-30 kt gusts and small craft headlines in the nearshores with heavy freezing spray concerns over the eastern half of the lake. Winds will back southwesterly and increase on Monday ahead of another low crossing the lake Monday night. There is enough confidence to upgrade to Gale Warning over western portions of the lake Monday afternoon into Monday evening with this afternoon's package. However, opted to drop the adjacent nearshore zones along the Keweenaw and western UP from a Gale Watch to a Small Craft Advisory as peak gusts look to stay closer to 25-30 kt closer to shore. Either way, increased winds will introduce renewed heavy freezing spray concerns to the western half of the lake on Monday. These concerns will persist through much of the week as additional systems rotate through the region and maintain a fairly active pattern. Expect 20-30 kt breezes over the lake through much of the week, eventually turning northerly or even northeasterly later in the week. Gale probs generally reside in the 20-30% range over the eastern half of the lake beyond Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for MIZ002>006-009>013-084.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Monday for LSZ162.

Gale Warning from 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Monday for LSZ162-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ240>244-263-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.