textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain mostly ends this morning, but some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could return near Green Bay and Lake Michigan this afternoon.

- Temperatures remain below normal until the end of the work week, but begin to climb up each day.

- Above normal temperatures and increased humidity return early next week, along with periodic showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

While the rain showers continue to dwindle away across the area this morning, some drizzle and light rain showers (with the occasional lightning strike popping up) are being seen across the area via local observations and radar imagery. With the low responsible continuing through Lower Michigan towards the St. Lawrence Seaway today, expect most of the rain to be done by the mid-morning hours across the area. In addition to the rain, some local observations are reporting patches of fog across the area early this morning. While most of the U.P. appears to just be seeing low-level stratus, a couple of spots are reporting visibilities down to a half mile or less. Nevertheless, because the patchy fog is not really being seen all that much across the area, there is currently no plan to issue an SPS or Dense Fog Advisory for it this morning. As the low responsible for the rainfall and storms yesterday continues to leave the area today, expect clearing skies and drier conditions to begin moving into the U.P. by the mid-morning hours (ending chances of the fog threat by then).

While the low moves away and weak high pressure ridging slowly moves into the region the rest of the week, CAMs and model skew-Ts show some tall, very skinny SBCAPE developing along the Lake Michigan/Green Bay shoreline this afternoon. With the winds lightening up this afternoon as the weak high pressure starts moving in, there may be enough diurnal instability in the atmosphere and forcing from the Lake Michigan/Green Bay lake breeze that some afternoon showers and storms form near the lakeshore. Given the lack of wind shear in the atmosphere, no severe weather is expected; however, some heavy downpours could be seen in the convection near Lake Michigan/Green Bay, not to mention a non-zero (but very low) chance for marginally severe winds and hail due to core/updraft collapse due to the lack of wind shear with height.

Outside of today, the rest of this week looks to remain dry as high pressure ridging builds in from Canada and stays settled until around Sunday. In addition, expect the below normal temperatures today (highs in the 60s to lower 70s/lows in the 40s) to give way to above normal temperatures by early next week as a pattern shift occurs. As a low barrels into the PacNW late this week before lifting into the central CONUS and Canadian Prairies late this weekend, expect this low to push the cooler Canadian air out of our neck-of-the-woods and instead set us up with Gulf air via SW/SSW flow. With the vertically-stacked low eventually just spinning over the Canadian Prairies for the first half of next week, expect shortwave lows to rotate up from Colorado and the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms back across our area from time to time. With the Euro ensemble showing temperatures aloft approaching the max of modeled climatology by early next week, there is a non-zero chance that a Heat Advisory or more could be needed for portions of Upper Michigan, particularly in the west where the NBM is already hinting at high temperatures approaching 100 on Monday. We could see similar temperatures on Tuesday into the middle of next week as well, provided that enough sunshine reaches the sfc those days. With the Gulf air on tap, expect muggy conditions across the area next week, making the outdoors and any spot that isn't air conditioned acutely uncomfortable. Therefore, take plenty of water breaks and avoid strenuous labor during the hottest part of the day next week, as heat exhaustion and heat stroke could become genuine threats.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 105 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The main threat this morning will be LIFR/VLIFR fog formation at all TAF sites as an onshore, upslope flow develops. This will result in at least IFR/LIFR early this morning through daybreak. Fog may become dense and could not rule out VLIFR (60% chance). Fog will begin to mix out by mid-morning. Overall winds will be light, turning northerly from west to east. Expect VFR conditions to prevail after fog clears out.

MARINE

Issued at 223 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue this morning through the rest of the week as weak high pressure ridging builds in from Canada. However, starting on Sunday, a low lifts from the Rockies into the Canadian Prairies and central CONUS, eventually just spinning over the Canadian Prairies for the first half of next week. As this occurs, the Upper Great Lakes becomes set up under Gulf air as shortwaves rotate into the region from the SW. Thus by Sunday, expect to see winds increase from the E to 20 to 30 knots as thunderstorm chances move into the lake late in the day into the overnight hours. While the winds do look to veer towards the S Sunday night into Monday, expect them to remain at 20 to 25 knots across the lake (highest over the east half), with additional showers and thunderstorms potentially moving over Lake Superior once again late Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.