textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A seasonably warm and breezy day expected Friday.

- Strong winds will spread over the region Friday afternoon into Friday night. There is high confidence of 45 to 55 mph winds in the Keweenaw and up to 45 mph by Lake Superior. Wind Advisories have been issued for the Keweenaw Peninsula.

- Seasonably cold temperatures are expected this weekend with highs in the teens and lows in the negative single digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

A weak wave has progressed through the region this morning, caught within broad troughing covering the eastern half of Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Snowfall has been light based on radar returns and webcams scattered across the region. Temperatures, so far, have warmed into the 20s for most of the region, with a few sites knocking on the door of 30 degrees in the south and west. Light snow will gradually taper from west to east through the remainder of the day, perhaps extending into the early evening hours across the east.

A weak surface ridge will quickly swing through tonight ahead of a stronger cold front Friday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, an increasing low level jet and deep mixing will allow these stronger winds aloft to mix to the surface. Currently expecting increasing southwest winds through the day, peaking in the afternoon near 35-40mph by Lake Superior and in the Keweenaw and near 25-35mph elsewhere. The front quickly pushes west to east through the region late afternoon/evening with strong cold air advection thereafter. A period of strong westerly winds will accompany the front, aided by an isallobaric acceleration, particularly in the Keweenaw Peninsula. Winds will shift to the northwest and lighten Friday night. Guidance continues to suggest this period of westerly winds to be the strongest winds in this event. Latest NBM suggests 60% chance of >45 mph winds while the HREF suggests upwards of 80%. Model soundings highlight this potential well, with deep mixing into a core of near 50kts. RAW deterministic output of the HRRR and EC both suggest 50-60mph in the Keweenaw. Should be noted that there has been a slight decreasing trend to these guidance packages, now suggesting a lower probability for >60mph. With this said though, there continues to be high confidence in 45 to 55 mph winds, so opted to upgrade the inherited High Wind Watch to a Wind Advisory for the Keweenaw. Will allow the midnight team another opportunity to evaluate if a High Wind Warning is needed in the Keweenaw or if the Wind Advisories need to be expanded to Marquette, Alger, and Luce counties where wind could reach 45 mph along the lakeshores. Conditions behind the front looks to be mostly dry, although CAMS do suggest a band of light rain can't be ruled out along the boundary over northern Lake Superior. Light lake effect snow will then linger Saturday into Sunday.

The southwesterly flow will also support warm air advection, which will help most of the region climb into the 40s Friday. Mid to upper 40s are expected southcentral and interior west. This will contrast heavily with the airmass after the front, which will support single digit lows Friday night and single digits above and below zero Saturday and Sunday night. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday look only to peak in the teens to low 20s.

High pressure this weekend will shift east through the weekend, before another period of warm air advection and southwesterly flow Monday ahead of the next clipper moving through Manitoba and Ontario. Precip with this looks to stay mostly to our north with dry conditions favored through at least midweek. Warmer airmass over the region looks to support daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Monday, and then 30s to low 40s Tuesday through Thursday, with perhaps widespread low to mid 40s Wednesday. Overnight lows look to fall into the teens to low 20s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Mainly -SHSN will affect the TAF sites this afternoon as a shortwave traverses the UP, with IWD briefly experiencing LIFR visibility at 17Z and SAW up to 40% likely to see a brief window of sub-1SM visibility around 21Z. Eventually, all TAF sites will SCT out and VFR conditions are expected tonight and early Friday. Winds relax to light and variable overnight, but quickly become gusty on Friday with gusts to at least 30 kt around 18Z at CMX (becoming even higher after the TAF period ends) out of the SW.

There is the potential for some LLWS to develop over the terminals Friday morning as a LLJ begins to push into the Upper Midwest and U.P., though it will be more likely between 18Z Friday and 00Z Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Light winds have been observed over the lake so far today with a passing system through the region. Friday though, a deepening low pressure to the north with strong cold air advection behind a cold front will support a gale, storm, and heavy freezing spray event. Expecting southwest flow to become westerly and then northwesterly as the front progresses the region. Strongest winds will be the westerly to northwesterly portion, and storm force winds look most likely east of the Keweenaw and gales to its west. Opted to upgrade all inherited watches to warnings. Additionally, heavy freezing spray will also develop Friday night over the entire lake, lasting into Saturday night. Winds will fall below gales Saturday morning and continue diminishing through Sunday as high pressure builds in.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ001- 003.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday to 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ162-242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Friday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ162.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Friday to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ240>242-263.

Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243>245-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday for LSZ243-244-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM Friday to 4 PM EST Saturday for LSZ245>248-265.

Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ246- 247-249-250.

Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for LSZ248-251-265>267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.