textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds up to 60 mph in the Keweenaw and 45 mph near Lake Superior are expected this evening into tonight. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect.

- Seasonably cold temperatures this weekend with highs mainly in the teens and lows in the negative single digits.

- Light lake effect snow showers over the northwest wind snowbelts tonight into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

GOES water vapor imagery reveals a potent shortwave trough beginning to acquire a slight negative tilt as it digs over western Ontario this afternoon, with an attendant 991 mb surface low analyzed over north-central Ontario well north of Lake Superior. A cold front extends southwest from the low center and is readily apparent on visible satellite over western Ontario and the MN Arrowhead. Meanwhile, Upper Michigan is situated squarely within the warm sector of this strengthening system, allowing temperatures to rise into the 40s over much of the area and even into the 50s in parts of the western UP today. This is accompanied by breezy conditions as southwest winds are gusting to 20-30 mph ahead of the front as of mid afternoon. Winds will remain the primary concern going through this evening and into tonight as the surface low rapidly deepens into the low 980s near the southern end of James Bay this evening within the left exit region of a 140kt jet max crossing Lake Superior. The cold front will sweep across the UP this evening accompanied by a strong isallobaric push of around 2 mb/hr, producing very strong west-northwest winds across the Keweenaw and along the shores of Lake Superior. Ample cold air advection will help keep the strong winds going through this evening in the post frontal environment as steepening lapse rates help the core of 50 kt winds depicted at 925 mb in model soundings mix down to the surface, yielding widespread gusts to 45 mph across the northern tier of the UP and gusts as high as 60 mph along the Keweenaw. As such, wind headlines remain in place into tonight and are unchanged with the afternoon forecast package.

Winds will steadily diminish from west to east overnight into Saturday morning as the system departs into Quebec and high pressure build in behind it. Today's warmup will be short-lived as temperatures plummet behind the front back into the teens by around midnight tonight. Cold temperatures will then remain the primary focus this weekend as a chilly air mass characterized by 850 mb temps around -25C settles over Lake Superior. This will correspond to high temperatures mostly in the teens for both Saturday and Sunday, though a few spots in the south-central UP could rise into the 20s. Overnight lows will fall into the single digits below zero Saturday and Sunday night, with slightly warmer temps near the lakes. Relatively light winds should preclude the need for any cold weather headlines, but could still see some wind chill values dipping into the negative teens at times this weekend. In terms of precipitation, expect some light lake effect to develop over the northwest snowbelts and linger into Saturday night in the east behind the departing system, but a lack of moisture will keep snow amounts limited to around an inch or less for the most part, with most areas of the UP remaining dry.

Medium range guidance hints at a more prolonged warm up next week as ensemble clusters favor positive height anomalies with a more zonal flow pattern, yielding forecast daytime highs above freezing for much of the week. This will also keep precipitation north of the region, favoring dry conditions into at least the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 102 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail under mostly clear skies this afternoon. Aviation hazards and deteriorating conditions return this late afternoon and evening as a deep low pressure north of Lake Superior drags a strong cold front across the UP tonight. As this occurs, gusty SW winds will increase out of the WNW at IWD/CMX around 21- 00z. Gusts of 35-45 kts will be common at CMX with 40-60% chance of reaching 50 kts between 00z and 03z. A sharp drop in temperature will reintroduce MVFR lake effect clouds between 03-06z. While this should be a dry cold front, cant rule out a few lake effect snow showers at CMX. Have included a prob30 group for this scenario between 09 and 12z. Gusty NW winds slowly diminish through daybreak tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 347 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Strong low pressure passing north of the lake across Ontario this evening will maintain widespread west to northwesterly gales/storms and heavy freezing spray into tonight as strong cold air advection works into the area behind a passing cold front. Winds will diminish below gales Saturday morning and continue ramping down through Sunday as high pressure builds into the region.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ001-003.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ002-004-005-084.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ006-007.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ162-242- 263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ162.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ240>242- 263.

Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243>245-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for LSZ243-244-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday for LSZ245>248-265.

Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ246-247-249-250.

Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for LSZ248-251-265>267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.