textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and mostly sunny weather this weekend with above normal temperatures.

- Temperatures trend hotter into next week, with widespread 90s possible mid to late week.

- Another round of showers and storms likely on Monday. Diurnally- driven showers and storms will be possible the remainder of the week (15-30% chance each day).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Radar shows rain clearing the far eastern end of the UP. early this morning as a cold front departs the area. Surface observations report patchy fog in a few locations given abundant low level moisture in place after yesterday's rainfall, but so far nothing rising to the level of any land-based headlines in terms of either coverage or visibility. The departure of the front and associated surface low moving into western Quebec this morning will set the stage for a pleasant weekend as high pressure builds over the region, yielding a couple of dry days with temperatures generally running in the 70s to low 80s over much of Upper Michigan. Some patchy fog will be possible again tonight as subsidence increases atop lingering low level moisture.

Monday brings the next chance of showers and thunderstorms as an an upper low which becomes cutoff over the South Plains today gradually lifts northward as an open trough into the Upper MS River Valley and Upper Great Lakes by early next week. This will be accompanied by another plume of rich Gulf moisture which will send PWATs back above 1 inch and perhaps above 1.5 inches depending upon your guidance of choice. Will thus have to keep an eye on the potential for some heavy rainfall with this system, particularly over the western half of the UP MOnday into Monday night. Not seeing any particularly strong signals for strong to severe thunderstorms in terms of shear and instability, but will keep an eye on this going forward as well. Beyond Monday, ensembles struggle about the details, with various clusters of surface features, but the broad pattern of ridging centered over the Ontario/Quebec line and troughing over the West Coast will put the UP in southwesterly flow aloft with various shortwave features emerging from the base of the large-scale trough over the Rockies providing some opportunities for diurnally-boosted minor shower/thunder chances (~15-30%). The ridging and persistent warm southerly flow will keep the warming trend going, with the NBM suggesting some mid to upper 90s highs in the interior west mid to late week. Raw guidance continues to suggest highs in the mid 80s instead, so it is to be determined whether the NBM bias correction is overcorrecting or if the hottest airmass of the season to date will be upon us.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 747 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Visible satellite reveals mostly clear skies across Upper Michigan this morning, save for some patchy low stratus and fog along the Lake Superior shoreline. This is most prevalent over the Keweenaw, with LIFR cigs being reported at KCMX as of 12z Sat. There is also a bank of low clouds encroaching upon KSAW from the north, but current satellite trends and westerly winds at the surface suggest this may remain just east of the terminal. Meanwhile, KIWD has scattered to SKC VFR as of 12z. Remaining low stratus and fog should scatter out through about 15z, giving way to VFR conditions for the rest of the day as high pressure builds in. Expect mainly light winds below 10 kt. Fog may redevelop tonight and bring IFR/LIFR conditions back to the terminals after 06z Sun.

MARINE

Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Satellite and available surface observations reveal areas of fog continuing over parts of Lake Superior this morning in the wake of a passing cold front. Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for these areas through 11 AM EDT this morning. Will need to look at the potential to extend these headlines based on observational and forecast trends, as conditions will remain conducive to fog over the lake through Sunday morning. With high pressure reestablishing over the region this weekend, winds remain light today until Sunday afternoon, when east/northeast winds pick up to around 20kts over the western portions of the lake ahead of another approaching low pressure early next week. Guidance depicts a 50-70% chances of 20+ kt gusts as this system arrives on Monday, especially in the east to central portions of the lake. Winds fall back after Monday, but may pick up again late next week as low pressure moving out of the Rockies leads to a tightening pressure gradient over the Great Lakes.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ242>244- 263>267.

Lake Michigan... None.