textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers continue downwind of Lake Superior through tonight.

- Temperatures finally return to around normal this weekend, continuing through much of next week.

- Widespread light snow is expected Sunday night into Monday morning, followed by lake effect snow downwind of Lake Superior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

High pressure currently analyzed to the northwest near Lake Winnipeg has maintained near northerly flow across Lake Superior today. With 850mb temperatures analyzed, per SPC Mesoanalysis, between -19 and -22C, ice free portions of the lake have provided enough moisture and energy to provide continuous snow showers downwind into Upper Michigan. Snow accumulations through the day have likely been light, with occasional, very brief bursts of heavier snowfall rates noted by KMQT radar. With temperatures in the single digits above and below zero this morning though, snow has been accumulating on roadways, likely resulting in hazardous travel. At the time of this publishing though, temperatures had warmed into the teens across the east half and Keweenaw, but have only warmed into the single digits above in parts of the interior west. Beginning late morning, increasing surface moisture also supported widespread snow stretching through most of the forecast area. Latest HRRR pings slowly falling inversion heights through the remainder of the day as mid-upper level ridging sinks south into the Upper Great Lakes and the upstream surface high migrates south into the Plains. The effect will be slowly diminishing lake effect snow showers tonight into early Saturday, followed by dry conditions into late Sunday. Additional snowfall is likely to fall within the 1-3 inch range in areas bordering or downwind of Lake Superior, with the higher amounts likely east of Marquette.

The overall pattern across Canada and CONUS in this forecast period includes large scale ridging building up the west coast and Rocky Mountains, with broad troughing fluctuating across eastern CONUS. This maintains the average northwest flow into the Great Lakes, thereby allowing additional surface troughs and clippers room to slip into the region. The first comes Sunday night, pressing west to east through the region into early Monday. Current thinking is for a widespread inch or two of snow. Another surface high builds into Ontario, gradually filling into the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will likely result in a period of lake effect behind the trough on Monday, which will gradually diminish late Monday or Monday night.

Beyond this, guidance is keen about a more impactful clipper low pressing into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region late Thursday/Friday. Latest GEFS and EC ensemble still suggest plenty of uncertainty, which translates to low confidence in any sort of impact. For what its worth this far out though, the signs are there for a strong wind event with widespread light to moderate snow if the stars align.

Warm air advection will this evening will warm 850mb temps to near -12C, with additional warming to near -7C by Sunday morning under increasing southwest flow. This will help sustain a warming spell where surface temperatures climb into the upper teens to low 20s Saturday, and then mid to upper 20s Sunday. These near normal temperatures are slated to continue for a majority of the coming week. Overnight lows mostly follow the same trend, with temperatures trending towards above normal by Sunday night, but then gradually settling near normal next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Variable IFR/MVFR conditions will settle into prevailing MVFR at Upper Michigan terminals as lake effect snow showers continue to diminish overnight, though some patches of IFR cigs could persist in the west as low level moisture lingers into Sat morning. Gusty north- northwest winds to 15-20 kt will also diminish overnight and become light by Sat morning, with conditions eventually trending VFR 18-22z Sat as high pressure builds into the region.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Northerly flow has been observed today across Lake Superior, mostly ranging from 20-30kts. These winds will lighten this evening below 20kts lake-wide by midnight thanks to increasing influence of high pressure over the area. These light winds will continue Saturday, before southwest flow increases Sunday to near 25kts ahead of the next trough. By afternoon, these increase to near 30kts from the south across the east half. Behind the trough, northwest flow near 20-30kts is expected, with highest winds expected across the east half. After these winds lighten Monday night, expecting light winds below 20kts through at least Thursday ahead of the next system.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for LSZ243>250-264>266.

Lake Michigan... None.