textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers this morning will diminish and become more isolated this afternoon and evening.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Baraga and Marquette Counties through Noon EST today. Additional snowfall of 1- 2" is expected over the higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties. There is a 40% chance for additional snowfall of up to 4" in the rural higher terrain west of Marquette CR510 and well north of US-41.

- Dry weather expected beyond Saturday as temperatures rebound to unseasonably warm values (upper 40s/low 50s) early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Early this morning large scale troughing remained over eastern Canada extending southwest into the Great Lakes with multiple embedded shortwaves moving south from Ontario. Thus far tonight the shortwaves were still failing to produce enough moisture and lift in the DGZ to consistently support dendrites, with a lot of snow pellets observed along with low snow ratios, around 5:1 at the WFO Marquette office in Negaunee Township. Surface observations showed temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s inland with mid to upper 30s along the immediate Lake Superior shoreline. Radar and satellite continued to show LES bands in the north wind snowbelts though increased low level stability was starting to limit their extent inland, diminishing before reaching the southern counties. A shortwave could clearly be seen in the water vapor imagery rotating south through Ontario into the eastern part of Lake Superior which will impact the weather for the next several hours.

LES is expected to continue in the north wind snowbelts through the morning hours today. As the aforementioned shortwave moves through the U.P. there could be an uptick in lake effect snow showers over the next 2 to 6 hours; satellite imagery indicates deeper upstream moisture and forecast soundings support this. This will result in a period of deeper moisture and lift into the DGZ. That being said still think snow ratios will continue to run on the lower side overall (5:1 to 9:1), especially with the marginally cold low levels and sfc. limiting snowfall amounts. Additional snowfall through the morning is expected to be in the 1-3" range over the north wind snowbelts, highest over the higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties. Lower amounts, less than an inch, can be expected near the Lake Superior shoreline and eastern U.P. do to temperatures staying above freezing. The wet, dense nature of the snow will impact travel and those out driving this morning should leave themselves extra time to reach their destination. Temperatures should warm above freezing for most locations today so expect impacts for any remaining snow showers to be minimal this afternoon. Inversion heights start to collapse late in the afternoon as well, which could transition any lingering showers to rain with the loss of temperatures cold enough to support ice nucleation (warmer than - 8C). A few light lake effect showers will linger over the eastern U.P. on Saturday.

Much quieter weather is in store from Sunday through the first half of next week as high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes and much of the eastern CONUS. This looks to keep Upper Michigan dry through at least Wednesday, accompanied by temperatures climbing back into the 40s to 50s from Monday onward, well above seasonal norms for mid November. Guidance does hint at another system bringing precipitation back to the UP towards the latter half of next week, but confidence in specific details is low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 605 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected during the 12Z TAF period courtesy of lake effect snow, except for periods of IFR at SAW where the best low level convergence is located. Snow showers end this afternoon at CMX and this evening at IWD. SAW may see showers linger until the very end of the period, but VIS concerns end after 4Z tonight. North winds persist around 10 kts at SAW, with 5-10 kts at IWD/CMX.

MARINE

Issued at 224 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Northerly winds of 20-25 kt are expected over Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan through this morning with winds to near 30 kt over the eastern half of Lake Superior. Winds will fall below 20 kt this evening except for the east-central part of Lake Superior where winds to 25 kt continue into Saturday afternoon. Light winds, less than 15 kt are expected for Sunday. Southerly winds increase to 30 kt on Monday afternoon over the western arm of Lake Superior, in response to low pressure deepening in the lee of the Rockies. Southwest winds of 25-30 kt continue in the western arm through Wednesday as the low slowly moves to the Dakotas. For Monday through Wednesday winds will be lighter for northern Lake Michigan, around 20 kt, and 20-25 kt over the eastern half of Lake Superior.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MIZ004-005.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.