textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A period of strong winds and low visibility in blowing snow is expected along the lakeshores of the west and north central through this morning. See the latest Winter Weather Advisories for more information.

- Lake effect snow continues over the east today.

- Warmer than normal temperatures make a return next week. This will create areas of unstable ice on inland lakes and along the Great Lakes shorelines.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 451 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Early morning KMQT radar returns shows a widespread round of very light precipitation passing over the UP. METAR reports confirm anecdotal reports of freezing drizzle with this round, which makes sense given that despite the sub-freezing column, the precipitating layer is all warmer than the DGZ, so crystals struggle to form. However, with winds shifting fully to the northwest behind the cold front, temperatures will fall throughout the morning, making whatever synoptic precipitation that lingers occur as snow. Snow totals have trended down over the west and up over the east, especially as plummeting temperatures aloft provide supportive thermodynamic profiles for lake effect snow and lift in the east is boosted by supportive low-level FGEN. This is opposed by the west, which will have proximity to an approaching 1032mb high pressure and as such will have weaker surface cyclonic flow and subsidence that should keep snow showers weak today. Given the disparity between the halves, will maintain the current headlines of Winter Weather Advisories ending in the west in the morning and the advisory holding in the east until at least this evening. Of perhaps higher impact than the precipitating snowfall will be the travel impacts from the aforementioned FZDZ as well as stout wind gusts in excess of 30-40 mph (especially at the shores) causing blowing snow potential. This BLSN potential may be hampered by the FZDZ causing a "crusting" effect on the preexisting snowpack, though the extent of this limitation is unknown at this time. It is possible that in some areas, the FZDZ was enough to hold the current snowpack down, while in other areas, the FZDZ was too light to coat the snowpack entirely and hold it down. Predicting the BLSN threat will be highest in the east where falling snowfall will render that point somewhat moot. Additionally, the falling temperatures will make it so the snow that falls today will more resemble the easily-blown and efficient visibility reducing snowfall occurs instead of snow habits that occur in relatively warmer conditions. Bottom line: Blowing snow (and the associated low visibility and slick roads) is the biggest threat with the current round of winter weather headlines.

Lake effect winds down somewhat in the east during the day Saturday as weakening surface high pressure moves over the region. Quiet weather will be shortlived however as a subtle shortwave brings just enough forcing to initiate widespread light snow over the UP Saturday night into Sunday. While chances of any measurable precip for a given 6-hour period are in excess of 60 percent, the chances of 6-hourly precip rates in excess of 0.05" are 30 percent or less, so even if 20:1 snow ratios are realized, 1"/6hr snow rates will be difficult to achieve.

Some uncertainty does exist with the cessation of precipitation in the east half on Sunday as the subtle nature of the shortwave lends itself to a wider spread in model outcomes, though PoPs look to be around 15-30 percent in the east half during the daytime Sunday and what snow does fall should be light in nature. Winds shift to be out of the south as high pressure shifts east, allowing for temperatures to rebound to near normal as NBM highs Sunday are in the 20s. Attention then turns to a weakening clipper low riding the US/Canada border, arriving north of Lake Superior around Monday morning. Ensemble spread is high with the track and timing of this clipper as some members have it quickly lifting to James Bay by Tuesday afternoon while others have a secondary low pressure emerging out of the Plains and keeping low pressure over the UP as late as Tuesday night. Snow totals with this clipper look to mainly be sub-advisory, though around 15-20 percent of the GEFS does show daily snowfall rates of 4+ inches for the Keweenaw Peninsula and Isle Royale by Tuesday evening, so there is some potentially impactful snowfall scenarios, though they are not the most likely scenario at this time.

Uncertainty then balloons even further in the wake of the clipper for the midweek and beyond. Ensemble mean 500mb charts show split flow over the western CONUS by Thursday afternoon, putting the UP in NW flow and upstream of a ridge. This means high pressure is the most common solution and the NBM shows a number of days next week that approach or exceed freezing for high temperatures, though the probabilities of exceeding freezing are never 100 percent. For those that do outdoor recreation on ice (ice fishing, etc), keep an eye on the forecast, as a warmer-than-freezing forecast will dramatically increase the chances that ice becomes unsafe, whether that be on inland bodies of water or shoreline ice of the Great Lakes. The other consequence of split flow over the Rockies is the southern branch trough that could spawn a CO-Low style feature, though little to no ensemble consensus exists on such a feature making it to the Great Lakes yet.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

IFR/MVFR conditions are expected through this morning with gradual improvement during the afternoon. A disturbance moving through the area overnight will bring light snow to the western U.P, including IWD, followed by a period of widespread light snow across the U.P during the early morning hours as a cold front drops south through the area. Behind the front winds will become northerly with gusts to 25 kts at IWD and 30-35 kts at CMX and SAW. While snow will be on the light side the light and fluffy snow will be susceptible to blowing, resulting in lower visby during the morning hours noted with the PROB30 groups. Conditions should become VFR during evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 451 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

In the wake of a cold front, north to northwest wind gusts in excess of 40 kt will occur over the eastern half of Lake Superior, with gales still likely (50+%) over the east half (except the far east). In ice-free areas of the east half, expect waves of 10-15 ft and heavy freezing spray today and tonight. High pressure will reduce winds below gales tonight and below 20 kt by Saturday afternoon. The next feature of note will be a clipper low that approaches northwestern Lake Superior Monday morning, kicking up wind gusts of near 25 kt on the east half Monday morning into Tuesday, though there is uncertainty in the track and timing of that low. Winds will fall below 20 kt late Wednesday as high pressure moves back over the Upper Great Lakes.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ001>003-005-009.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ242-263.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ243>248-264- 265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for LSZ243>251-264>267.

Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ249-250-266.

Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ248-250.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ248-250.