textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures begin to warm above normal for Friday.

- Well above normal temperatures expected this weekend. Highs into the 80s are possible Saturday and Sunday.

- Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are possible on Saturday.

-Temperatures return to near-normal Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Current visible satellite imagery shows the development of cumulus clouds over much of the central U.P. due to diurnal heating. Additional cloud cover has developed over the eastern U.P., thanks to instability over Lake Superior which has also led to a few scattered lake-effect rain showers. Temperatures tonight will be near-normal in the mid-to-low 30s with partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds. An area of surface high pressure is expected to build across the NE CONUS and Great Lakes region tonight through Friday as a longwave 500mb ridge progresses into the area. This area of high pressure will result in slightly above-normal highs Friday, along with light winds shifting from northerly to southerly and mostly clear skies.

Heading into the weekend, the surface high pressure area over the NE CONUS continues to build and shift eastward while a Clipper Low splits over the northern Mountain West and moves into the Northern Plains. This setup will result in a tightly packed surface pressure gradient over the northern Midwest and strong WAA into the Great Lakes region. Combined with mostly clear skies, these southerly winds are likely (60-80% chance) to cause highs exceeding 80 degrees in the interior west over the weekend. The eastern U.P. will see highs limited to the mid-70s as the southerly flow will be moderated by Lake Michigan surface temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible over the weekend, particularity in the interior west. RHs will fall below 40% in the interior west both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, with some areas possibly reaching below 35%. Overnight RH is expected to remain at or below 70% overnight for the western U.P. Gusts up to 30mph are possible for the interior west Saturday, and could be locally higher in areas prone to downsloping. Wind speeds will be somewhat lower for Sunday, but gusts could still reach 25mph. Fire weather partners and the public should continue to monitor the forecast for fire weather concerns this weekend due to potentially elevated to critical fire weather and ongoing drought conditions.

Our next best chance of precipitation is predicted to arrive late Monday into Tuesday as a shortwave trough associated with an eastern Canadian low moves across the area along with a cold front. Northerly flow behind the front could also result in lake effect precipitation chances through the early workweek as seasonably cool temperatures return.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions continue through the 18z TAF period at all sites. A few scattered light rain showers may graze the eastern half of the UP through the rest of the afternoon and early evening, but are not expected to impact CMX or SAW. Diurnal cloud cover will scatter out tonight, leaving mostly clear skies overhead. Gusty NW winds hold on through the afternoon and evening before slowly falling tonight as high pressure builds in and the regional pressure gradient slackens. VFR conditions and lighter winds (<15 kts) are expected through Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Lake Superior: Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect along a majority of the shoreline but will drop off from west to east tonight. Winds are currently westerly at around 20kts over the western arm and northwesterly around 25kts over the east. Wave heights are 2-6ft in the west, highest in the western Keweenaw nearshore, and 6-10ft in the east, highest in the southeast nearshores. Winds decrease to 5-10kts and shift northwesterly tonight into Friday morning,then shift southeasterly Friday afternoon and pick up speed from the east to the west. Southeast winds increase up to 30kts over the eastern lake Saturday morning, with wave heights at 5-8ft offshore, lower to the west and nearshore. Winds shift southwesterly Saturday night as speeds up to 30kts spread to the western lake. Gale conditions are possible (40% chance) Saturday into Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon, winds decrease in speed, falling below 25kts by the afternoon with wave heights at 2-4 ft. Heading into Monday morning, winds shift rapidly from southwesterly to northerly as a cold front moves across the lake. Winds settle to northerly at 25-30kts Monday afternoon with wave heights at 5-7ft.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Currently, winds are west-northwesterly at 10-20kts. Wave heights are 1-2ft. Tonight, winds shift northerly and decrease in speed to 5-10kts. Light winds shift easterly Friday and will result in calm conditions. As a pressure gradient builds across the region Friday night into Saturday, winds increase to 15-30kts and shift southerly. This will result in wave heights up to 9ft in the open water and 4ft in the bay. Sunday, wind speeds decrease to 15-20kts and wave heights diminish to 1-5ft (lowest in the bay). Winds remain southerly until Monday evening, when a cold front moves through the area, shifting winds to northerly.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.