textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A seasonably warm and windy today. Strong winds up to 60 mph in the Keweenaw and 45 mph near Lake Superior are expected this afternoon into tonight. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been hoisted.

- Seasonably cold temperatures are expected this weekend with highs in the teens to low 20s and lows in the negative single digits.

- Light lake effect snow showers over the northwest wind snowbelts tonight into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Early morning RAP analysis indicates a broad trough across the eastern CONUS with a ridge over much of the west coast. Satellite imagery, particularly the water vapor imagery, highlight a weak wave just upstream over northern MN moving toward the CWA. SPC Mesoanalysis shows weak low level f-gen is present underneath this wave. With the help of isentropic ascent, there is enough lift for the snow showers present on KDLH and CASSN. Model guidance is handling this poorly and thus confidence on the snowfall forecast through the morning hours is low. Regardless, accumulations are not anticipated to be impactful (if at all) and would be focused over the west half and Isle Royale. Where cloud cover has been absent, temps have fallen into the teens with a few RAWS sites dipping into the single digits above. Temps in the Keweenaw and near the Great Lakes have resided in the 20s. As the morning progresses, further cooling in the east is anticipated but increasing cloud cover and southerly flow should limit significant cooling in the west the remainder of the tonight period.

The remainder of today brings warm and windy conditions to the UP. A vigorous shortwave and clipper system track across northern Ontario today into tonight, sending a strong cold front from west to east over the UP late this afternoon into tonight. Southerly winds ramp up through the early afternoon hours ahead of the frontal boundary. Resulting WAA will bring temps into the upper 30s to 40s (10-15 degrees above normal). Gusts increase into the 25 to 35 mph range, particularly in the south becoming southwest downslope areas where gusts up to 40 mph are possible (30-60% chance). The strong low level inversion should prevent Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning criteria from being met until later this afternoon in the west and this evening in the east when the cold front ushers in strong CAA and pressure rises.

A period of strong westerly winds will accompany the front, aided by an isallobaric acceleration, particularly in the Keweenaw Peninsula. Winds shift to the northwest and begin tapering down tonight. Post cold front will be the strongest wind period, where a LLJ corridor of ~50 kt winds passes over the CWA, particularly strongest over the northern tier. Model soundings indicate the core of this LLJ pushing down near 925 mb, ideal for mixing given the top of the mixed layer reaches well above that up to 800 mb at times. Even though the HREF only suggests a 50-60% chance for 60 mph winds, opted to upgrade the Keweenaw to a High Wind Warning given the ingredients present: strong winds near the surface, strong CAA, and pressure rises of 2 mb/hr. The NBM suggests 50-60% for >45 mph winds with higher probabilities plotted in the HREF (60-80%) over the northern tier. Opted to hoist staggered Wind Advisories near Lake Superior to capture this hazard (21Z this afternoon to 6Z tonight in the west/north-central and 0Z to 9Z tonight in the east). Could see this short Wind Advisory expanded to the interior west with the next forecast package if confidence continues to increase.

Trailing light lake effect snow is expected tonight over the northwest wind snowbelts. Showers over the west taper off on Saturday, but linger over the east through much of the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west. Meanwhile a disturbance tracking to the south may graze southern Menominee County with light snow. Temps the remainder of the weekend quickly become seasonably cold in the wake of the cold front, with highs in the teens to low 20s and lows in the single digits. High pressure moves to New England early next week, allowing for another period of WAA and southwest flow ahead of the next clipper moving through Manitoba and Ontario. Precip looks to remain to the north with dry conditions favored through at least midweek. Warmer airmass over the region looks to support daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Monday, and then 30s to mid 40s Tuesday through Thursday. Overnight lows look to fall into the teens to low 20s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Patchy lower/midlevel cloud cover is present over the area tonight, with mainly MVFR restrictions at CMX and SAW. However, with more breaks in the clouds at IWD, freezing fog has been able to develop tonight that is driving visibility down to IFR or worse. Will not rule out some patchy fog or freezing fog at CMX and SAW into the pre-dawn hours, with IFR possible there as well. After daybreak, a quick improvement to VFR is expected. A period of LLWS is not out of the question into the late morning and early afternoon with stronger winds moving in aloft, but confidence is low as surface winds start to pick up through the afternoon. Southwest winds gusts up to 20- 30kts more common at IWD and SAW, with stronger gusts in excess of 30kts at CMX. Winds turning over to the west and NW Friday evening may gust even higher at CMX, possibly up to 35-40kts. Winds are expected to slowly decrease around/after 06Z Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

A deepening low pressure to the north with strong cold air advection behind a cold front will support a gale/storm and heavy freezing spray event. Expecting southwest flow to become westerly and then northwesterly as the front progresses the region. Strongest winds will be the westerly to northwesterly portion with storm force winds primarily east of the Keweenaw and gales to its west. Maintained warnings as is. Heavy freezing spray develops tonight lakewide, persisting into Saturday night. Winds will fall below gales Saturday morning and continue diminishing through Sunday as high pressure builds in.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ001-003.

Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ002-004-005-084.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ006-007.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon to 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ162-242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ162.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday for LSZ240>242- 263.

Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243>245-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for LSZ243-244-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday for LSZ245>248-265.

Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ246-247-249-250.

Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday for LSZ248-251-265>267.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.