textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread snowfall is expected tonight through Wednesday morning, with lake effect snow trailing downwind of Lake Superior Wednesday afternoon.

- A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Marquette County where confidence is higher for snowfall of 6-9 inches, highest amounts of the higher elevations. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect across the rest of the U.P. with a widespread 3-5 inches expected.

- Another widespread snowfall and windier event may impact the U.P. Thursday night and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Early this morning, a tightening baroclinic zone is setting up from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains, south of surface high pressure expanding over Ontario and the Northern Plains. Already, a surface low has closed off over far western KS and NE, while closer to home weak forcing over the frontal boundary has kicked off a band of light snow that is stretching across Lake Superior and bisecting the Keweenaw. As the front continues to sag southward, the band should likewise drop more ESE into the western and central UP before falling apart after sunrise. Snowfall totals won't amount to much; expect around 1-2in across the Keweenaw by sunrise, and less than an inch elsewhere. A brief break in snowfall is expected into the daytime hours, while temperatures hover in the upper 20s to mid 30s under cloudy skies.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned surface low rides the baroclinic zone northeastward towards the Great Lakes while slowly deepening today, tracking near the southern end of Lake Michigan late tonight and over southern Lake Huron by Wednesday afternoon. By tonight, the U.P. will be under the left entrance region of a 300mb jet along with a band of strong fgen at 850-700mb. A cross section from northern WI through the North Central U.P. shows strong sloping fgen between 850-700mb with deep saturation, strong lift and negative EPV within the saturated layer hinting at CSI banding. Still, soundings indicate that our strongest lift remains below our elevated DGZ, and most of the column coming in above -10C. There is also a warm nose that pushes into the southern part of the UP tonight, introducing mixed precipitation types ranging from freezing rain in the far southern areas of the U.P. with a transition to sleet and then snow as you go north. Would therefore expect SLRs on the lower-end, generally around 10-12:1 for much of the UP, higher to near 15:1 over the Keweenaw and even lower (below 10:1) over the south-central UP.

So what does this look like as far as impacts? Steadier snowfall rates (HREF, for its part, favors 0.25-0.50in/hr) arrive in the southern UP by early evening, and spread into the northern half of the UP after sunset. Heavier rates above a half inch and eventually up to 1in/hr develop late tonight over northern Marquette county, away from the water, due to upsloping and lake enhancement amid a favorable northeasterly flow regime. Snow persists through Wednesday morning, tapering from west to east into the afternoon as our surface low makes its exit over/south of Lake Huron. However, winds backing northerly will keep in lingering lake effect from Marquette county eastward though the early evening, then snow finally wraps up entirely overnight courtesy of drier air and falling inversion heights.

Snow totals tonight through Wednesday will, naturally, be highest over the higher terrain of northern Marquette county, inland of Superior. There, ensembles highlight around 80% chance for snow totals in excess of 8" with a 60% or higher chance of totals in excess of 6" elsewhere across the northeastern half of the county (generally north of a line from Gwinn to Champion). The remainder of the UP, save southern Menominee county where SLRs remain lower, falls safely within advisory criteria with widespread totals around 4-6" and some locally higher amounts where terrain and lake enhancement can occur. The latter case includes areas in the eastern UP north of M-28. Will also note that winds will be on the increase given the tighter pressure gradient over the region. This would raise greater concerns for blowing snow and associated reductions in visibility were we to have higher SLRs, but still, some patchy blowing snow will not totally be ruled out particularly near Superior. Have upgraded Marquette county to a Winter Storm Warning tonight through Wednesday afternoon, with Winter Weather Advisories across the rest of the UP.

A progressive, active pattern is expected late week and through the coming weekend over the northern tier of the U.S. with multiple troughs moving through an otherwise zonal flow. This will bring opportunities for accumulating snowfall through the weekend though uncertainty still remains in the timing and placement of the heaviest precipitation. NBM probabilities for 6"+ snowfall in 24 hrs for the potential systems Thursday/Friday and Saturday/Sunday are in the 30-50% range. Temperatures through the period are generally near normal (upper 20s to mid 30s) through there is the potential for much colder weather starting late in the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

We start off the TAF period MVFR across the all three terminals. We expect that conditions quickly deteriorate late this afternoon as the next winter system lifts S to N. By 21z light snow will have spread over the UP. Snowfall intensity gradually increases through the evening and overnight hours, where IFR/LIFR vis is expected at all sites after 00z, especially at SAW. East to northeasterly winds will also increase overnight with gusts of 20 to 25kts.

MARINE

Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Winds coming in generally out of the N are starting off at around 15- 20kts. Winds slowly increase to 20-25kts this afternoon and evening while shifting to the NE as low pressure moves towards southern Lake Michigan. A the low exits the region on Wednesday winds become northerly and increase to 30kt over the eastern half of the lake. A few gale-force gusts will be possible during the evening (around a 30% chance). The next storm system approaches the region on Thursday, with southeast gales possible by Thursday night (40% chance), shifting north Friday morning before falling below 20kt on Saturday morning. There is a potential for another winter storm to bring another round of gales Sunday into Monday, though there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding track and timing of this next system.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ001>004-084.

Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ005.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ006-007-013-014-085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for MIZ009>012.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.