textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the west to central UP for wet snowfall falling occasionally at rates up to 1 inch per hour and winds gusting in excess of 30 mph causing locally hazardous travel.

- Widespread light to moderate snowfall is possible Saturday into Saturday night. A widespread 2-4 inches of snow is expected with some enhancement near Lake Superior up to 6 inches. Snowfall and gusty winds up to 35+ mph may make travel hazardous in some areas.

- Active weather pattern continues into next week with periodic snowfall trailed by lake effect and temperatures near-normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 508 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Early morning KMQT radar returns show a wide precipitation shield over the UP, though it is eroding from west to east and has some quasi-convective cellular components in the east half. METARs are reporting the transition from rain to snow with the 09Z reports showing rain ongoing in Newberry and Escanaba with UP reported at Menominee and snow at KSAW and Iron Mountain. Snow rates at the WFO have been between a half inch to inch per hour since changing over to snow around 06Z. Snow total forecast remains on track this morning, so little changes were made to the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory, though the cessation of precipitation is trending slightly faster than expected, so Baraga will end with the rest of the western counties at 12Z while Marquette will be the only county that hangs on until 15Z. The wind forecast for today has trended up somewhat, with the cold advection helping tap into the 900mb winds around 30 kt, with some peak gusts already being reported in excess of 30 kt over the Keweenaw this morning. These gusts are not quite high enough to warrant a Wind Advisory, but some attention should be kept to the gusts as if they do overperform, they will reach into Wind Advisory criteria. As far as impacts go, these gusts applied to wet snow-covered trees and power lines could result in an isolated power outage or so, though the potential is somewhat increased by a lot of the trees being stressed from the blizzard earlier in the month. With the surface low responsible for the disturbed weather escaping to the northeast, ~1024mb high pressure will settle over the region by midnight tonight, bringing an end to precipitation by 18Z and light winds after 00Z.

By 06Z Saturday, the upper air pattern will consist of strong ridging over the West Coast, a pair of troughs over the central CONUS (a closed low over International Falls and a positively tilted trough over the Southern Plains), with weak ridging over the Great Lakes and East Coast. This pair of troughs will make for a complicated forecast as their surface features traverse into the Great Lakes and phase, and differences in which feature is strongest, the track of the features, and the timing have frustrated forecast confidence thus far, though the snowfall forecast has refined somewhat. The most common solution is the northern low taking a Clipper-like track across the UP on Saturday, bringing a band of snowfall to the western UP Saturday morning before the low phases with a deepening low associated with the southern trough as it coalesces late Saturday over the Thumb region of Lower Michigan. This will result in a wave of light to moderate snowfall wrapping around the parent low, getting an orographic enhancement along the north-facing slopes adjacent to Lake Superior. The Euro ensemble has generally come around to snowfall totals widespread in the 2-4 inch range across the UP with this event, with a few members giving a solid 90th percentile ceiling of around 6 inches and a 10th percentile floor of just less than 2 inches. Thinking this will probably end up as a widespread advisory event, though a Winter Storm Warning can't be entirely ruled out as terrain and lake enhancement (850mb temperatures around -8 to -10 C in contrast with a lake around 4 C) could give some patches of 6-8+ inch accumulation totals. Travel may be difficult regardless of whether it ends up as an advisory or a warning, as a deepening low pressure in the region is generally a good setup for overperforming wind gusts, which are already forecast to be near 35 mph at the shorelines and near 25 mph inland.

As the surface low escapes to the east, weak ridging will help clear precip out Sunday, though relief from precipitation may be brief as a trough associated with a surface low in Hudson Bay will bring chances of precipitation up to 40-60 percent Sunday night into Monday, though chances of even an inch of accumulation are only 20- 40 percent. By midday Monday, the north-central CONUS will be in northwesterly flow aloft between troughing over the Hudson Bay and Atlantic Canada and ridging over the Canadian Rockies. A particularly potent shortwave is forecast to pivot around the Hudson Bay trough Tuesday, forcing a notable Clipper low to push through the Upper Great Lakes around the Tuesday timeframe, but there is a fair amount of spread in the ensembles about the track and timing of such a feature. Ensembles are hinting at yet another clipper in the late week period, but spread is quite high there. What the LREF is confident in is 850mb temperatures falling to below -10 C for Wednesday and beyond, so lake effect snow can be expected following the passage of any clippers in this time frame.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 634 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

MVFR cigs/vis are being observed at IWD/CMX this morning as widespread snow is working east through the central UP. IFR conditions remain at SAW with the back edge of the snow shield exiting Marquette county within the next hour or two. Dense fog present here at the WFO may establish itself at SAW as well, thus have included a brief period of dense fog at SAW 13-15z. Increasing north to northwest winds 20-30 kts and midlevel dry air will work to lift ceilings into the afternoon where all sites will reach MVFR/VFR. Otherwise, another round of widespread snow is expected tomorrow night into Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 508 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Northerly gusts to 30 kt over the west half and gales to 35-40 kt over the east half will continue until this afternoon, where winds shifting to be out of the northwest will drop below 20 kt this evening. Wind gusts remain 20 kt or below until Saturday afternoon, where a weak disturbance dropping through Lake Superior will bring easterly wind gusts to 25 kt, becoming northeast wind gusts to 30 kt (50 percent chance of a few gale force gusts) overnight. Sunday, northerly to northwesterly wind gusts fall to near 20 kt before ramping up above 30 kt out of the west-southwest over the west half of the lake, with chances of gales 40-60 percent overnight into Monday. West winds of 25-30 kt remain through Monday before falling to 20 kt or less overnight into Tuesday. Late Tuesday, northerly winds behind a low pressure are 40-60 percent likely to reach gales through Wednesday, gradually falling below 20 kt by Thursday morning. Each near-gale or gale event will bring the potential for significant wave heights in excess of 8 ft, with the highest waves in the forecast being 12-14 ft along the southern shores of the east half of Lake Superior today. Moderate freezing spray (with isolated areas of heavy freezing spray) is expected Saturday night through Sunday afternoon and again Wednesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ002-004-009-010-084.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ005.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ244-245- 248>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ248-250.