textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes tonight into early Friday bringing another chance for mixed winter precipitation. Uncertainly in precipitation types with this system remain with mainly rain expected across the east and highest snow accumulations of 3-6 inches across the Michigamme Highlands. In addition, pockets of freezing rain also still remain possible across the west and central UP.

- Another low pressure system will impact the region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There are questions about when and how this system will impact the region and how much snow will ultimately fall across the U.P., so interested parties should keep an eye on future forecasts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 419 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Focus in the short term period will be on a low pressure system currently located in the lee of the Colorado Rockies per current GOES satellite imagery and RAP/surface analysis. Meanwhile, low amplitude ridging over Upper Michigan early this morning has kept the local radar mosaic quiet, but low clouds and some fog/freezing fog have been slow to erode. This could inhibit the warm advection currently in the southwest flow today ahead of the aforementioned system. Nonetheless, high temperatures are still expected to climb into the mid to upper 30s across the entire forecast area with dry conditions until this evening. At that point, the next round of precipitation will overspread Upper Michigan through early Friday morning. As the system follows a northeastward track across southeast Wisconsin tonight and then northern Lower Michigan tomorrow morning, QPF values will climb into the 0.50-1.00" range across central and eastern Upper Michigan. With the warm layer in the mid levels ahead of it, this will make p-type particulary challenging with latest guidance now leaning toward a prolonged period of rain at onset of system. This could cut back on duration of freezing rain and thus ice accumulations. As a result, have scaled back on ice accumulations and ramped up snow amounts a bit with latest forecast issuance. Nonetheless, temperature trends will need to be monitored closely this morning for any changes that could deviate from a low ice accumulation scenario. For now, area of most concern will be concentrated over the Michigamme Highlands of Baraga and Marquette Counties. HREF probs are now above 50% for a swath of at least 2-4 inches of snow over that area, and with terrain enhancement, will not rule out some 3 to 6 inch amounts. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for both counties late this evening into Friday morning. Lesser amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range are highlighted south to the MI/WI border. Have opted not to issue advisories for the southern counties at this time, but cannot rule out these being late additions to the current advisory.

After a relative lull in conditions Friday into Friday night, attention then quickly turns to the next system (or systems) to potentially impact the area on Saturday as a trough digs out of the Canadian Rockies while a southern stream shortwave ejects out of the Desert Southwest. Fortunately there will be no precip type concerns with this system as colder air moving in behind the previous system will ensure all snow across the UP for the weekend. However, models continue to struggle with respect to exactly when, where, and to what degree these two features will interact, which will obviously have large implications for snowfall amounts across the area as current solutions depict a surface low spinning up anywhere from central Lower Michigan or Lake Huron to Lake Erie or even farther east. This will also significantly impact the wind forecast and the potential for blowing snow. NBM probs have ticked upwards to 40-60% for 4 inches of snow fall in the central and eastern UP and closer to a 25-40% chance in the west, with a 30-40% chance for as much as 8 inches from Marquette eastward as lake effect kicks in behind the system later in the weekend. Bottom line, stay tuned to the forecast in the coming days as the details of this weekend's system begin to come into better alignment.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Dew points near freezing over an abundant snowpack has kept FG and low ceilings over the TAF sites recently and today will be little different. IWD will have about 60 percent chances of a brief window of VFR around noon today but will quickly return to MVFR and eventually IFR (or lower) as a low pressure passes south of the UP, bringing RA at first which transitions to RASN (~30% chance of FZRASN at all sites). While some model guidance shows a similar clearing today at CMX, bias-corrected guidance gives about 70 percent chances of remaining at sub 5kft ceilings throughout the TAF period. SAW will see improvement from the ongoing LIFR but only to high-end IFR. Once the system passes, expect winds to veer northerly, increasing to gusts near 20 kt late in the period.

MARINE

Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Hi-res model guidance shows southwest winds increasing to 20-25 kt across the western end of Lake Superior this afternoon into this evening as the surface pressure gradient is squeezed between a trough entering the northern Plains and high pressure to the south over the Ohio River Valley. Otherwise, a fairly benign weather pattern holds through Thursday and maintains generally lighter southwest breezes below 20 kt and significant wave heights of 1-3 ft across the lake through Thursday afternoon. A stronger system moving across northern Lower Michigan Thursday night will bring a shift to northerly winds and potentially some small craft level conditions to the Lake Superior nearshores into Friday, but probabilities for Gales remain below 20% over the eastern half of the lake through the end of the work week. Models continue to hint at the potential for a stronger system to impact the region over the weekend as another low develops in the vicinity of Lower Michigan, but forecast confidence remains low with respect to placement, timing, and evolution of this feature. Will continue to monitor in the coming days as these details will have large implications for potential Gales and freezing spray over Lake Superior this weekend. The latest NBM continues to depict a 40-50% chance for northerly Gales developing across central and eastern Lake Superior late Saturday into Sunday, which is reflected in the current forecast.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ004-005.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.