textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures expected this weekend. Highs into the 80s are possible over the western UP Saturday and Sunday.

- Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions are possible on Saturday.

-Temperatures return to near-normal Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Early morning water vapor and RAP analysis feature midlevel low pressure centered over northern Quebec, sending troughing southward through the Lower Great Lakes. A compact shortwave is also noted off of British Columbia, while Isaias spins over the Gulf. Closer to home, ridging is building over the central CONUS, supporting surface high pressure over the Great Lakes. Nighttime microphysics shows mostly clear skies behind an exiting patch of midlevel lake-enhanced clouds and showers. Temperatures are already falling into the lower 40s over much of the interior-UP and into the upper 40s lakeside, though some spots are already well into the 30s. Expect temperatures to bottom out in the mid/upper 30s over most of the interior-UP, and the lower 40s lakeside, while some spots flirt with the freezing point in the interior-west.

As we head into the daytime hours, the ridge begins to amplify and shift eastward while the aforementioned British Columbia shortwave moves onshore and deepens. Winds shift more southerly in turn, which should help temperatures climb a couple degrees higher than in previous days; expect highs in the mid 60s for most, apart from nearer Lake Michigan and over the Superior shoreline, where temperatures may struggle to get out of the upper 50s. Model soundings support a sharp dewpoint drop into the afternoon hours, with RH in turn falling to near and even below 30% in the interior- west. Light winds limit fire weather concerns, but another dry day does not bode well as we head into the weekend. Overnight into early Saturday, temperatures come in much milder than tonight, ranging in the 40s for most as a warmer airmass continues to work in.

Saturday, the surface high pressure area over the NE CONUS continues to build and shift eastward while a Clipper Low splits over the northern Mountain West and moves into the Northern Plains. This setup will result in a tightly packed surface pressure gradient over the northern Midwest and strong WAA into the Great Lakes region. Combined with mostly clear skies, these southerly winds are likely (60-80% chance) to cause highs exceeding 80 degrees in the interior west over the weekend. The eastern U.P. will see highs limited to the mid-70s as the southerly flow will be moderated by Lake Michigan surface temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible over the weekend, particularity in the interior west. RHs will fall below 40% in the interior west both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, with some areas possibly reaching below 35%. Overnight RH is expected to remain at or below 70% overnight for the western U.P. Gusts up to 30mph are possible for the interior west Saturday, and could be locally higher in areas prone to downsloping. Wind speeds will be somewhat lower for Sunday, but gusts could still reach 25mph. Fire weather partners and the public should continue to monitor the forecast for fire weather concerns this weekend due to potentially elevated to critical fire weather and ongoing drought conditions.

Our next best chance of precipitation is predicted to arrive late Monday into Tuesday as a shortwave trough associated with an eastern Canadian low moves across the area along with a cold front. Northerly flow behind the front could also result in lake effect precipitation chances through the early workweek as seasonably cool temperatures return.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 714 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light east- southeast winds are expected today with high pressure overhead and only some passing high level clouds. Low pressure will eject from the Rockies over Alberta tonight with a warm front lifting north through the region. This will bring a period of 5-6kft cigs to SAW and CMX late tonight and possibly a few sprinkles but nothing that should impact flight categories. A southerly low level jet will develop over the central plains after sunset and extend north into the western half of the U.P. by late tonight into Saturday morning. This will result in a period of LLWS for IWD and CMX as the boundary layer will likely stay decoupled, resulting in lighter winds near the surface until after sunrise on Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Lake Superior: Winds generally out of the northwest early this morning continue to gust to near 20kts over the eastern half of the lake, but gusts fall back below 15kts around daybreak while waves gradually fall back to 1-2ft in the east and below a foot to the west. Winds gradually shift easterly and then to the southeast through the afternoon and evening, and pick up to 20-25kts in the western arm of the lake overnight. Southeast winds increase up to 30kts over the eastern lake Saturday morning while decreasing to the west, with wave heights at 5-8ft offshore, lower to the west and nearshore. Winds shift southwesterly Saturday night as speeds up to 30kts spread to the western lake. Gale conditions are possible (40% chance) Saturday into Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon, winds decrease in speed, falling below 25kts by the afternoon with wave heights at 2-4 ft. Heading into Monday morning, winds shift rapidly from southwesterly to northerly as a cold front moves across the lake. Winds settle to northerly at 25-30kts Monday afternoon with wave heights at 5-7ft. Winds remain elevated at around 20-30kts out of the north for Tuesday.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Winds currently coming in mainly from the WNW continue to gust up to 15-20kts, but fall back below 15kts by daybreak. Light winds shift to the E/SE this afternoon and will result in calm conditions. As a pressure gradient builds across the region tonight into Saturday, winds increase to 15-30kts and shift southerly. This will result in wave heights up to 9ft in the open water and 4ft in the bay. Sunday, wind speeds decrease to 15-20kts and wave heights diminish to 1-5ft (lowest in the bay). Winds remain southerly until Monday evening, when a cold front moves through the area, shifting winds to northerly. Winds pickup to around 20-25kts, remaining elevated into early Tuesday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.