textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional moderate to heavy lake effect snowfall will be seen over the north-wind snow belts this afternoon before winding- down this evening. Expect the greatest snowfall rates over the higher terrain of Marquette County.

- A low pressure emerging from the Rockies will arrive in the region Saturday night through the beginning of next week, bringing potentially record-breaking snowfall to portions of the U.P.; snow totals of 1-3 feet are possible along with blizzard conditions. Winter Storm Watches have been issued beginning late Saturday night and lasting through late Monday/early Tuesday.

- For the system this weekend into next week, waves of 25-30 feet are possible between Stannard Rock and the shores of Marquette and Alger counties.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures to follow for the first half of next week, with highs in the teens to 20s and lows in the single positive digits to lower teens.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

As the Clipper low moves into Lake Huron this evening, we transition over to lake effect snowfall over the north-wind snow belts this afternoon. Thus, while the radar as of 130PM EDT shows lake enhancement occurring even as far west as Duluth, as we lose the enhancement and become more purely lake effect, expect bands to form along the north wind snow belts. Looking at the latest guidance, moderate to heavy snowfall is expected to continue over the north wind snow belts this afternoon, with the greatest snowfall rates expected over the higher terrain of Marquette County (Negaunee to Sands/K.I. Sawyer area) thanks to the help of upslope enhancement where 1" per hour rates are expected until early this evening. While winds are dying down across the area, given the fairly fluffy nature of the snowfall and gusts up to 35 mph being seen this afternoon, areas of blowing snow are still expected along the northern tier the rest of this afternoon. The moderate to heavy snowfall and areas of blowing snow could make travel very difficult at times this afternoon across the north-wind snow belts. Therefore, if you have to travel, take it slow; otherwise, try to avoid travel altogether if you can help it until the snowfall relents this evening.

As weak high pressure ridging scoots into the area this evening, expect the lake effect snow to drastically weaken this evening, eventually ending by late tonight. With ridging around 1025mb sitting over the Upper Great Lakes Saturday morning, Saturday looks like it will quite literally be the 'calm before the [winter] storm'. Skies look to generally be partly cloudy with highs pleasantly in the 30s across the Yoop. Winds will also be fairly calm during the day, so if you have anything needing done outside or shopping to prepare for the winter storm early next week, I would do it then.

Our focus then turns to the 'main event' for the forecast period: a strong low moving out of the Rockies this weekend before lifting through Lower Michigan late Sunday night and Monday morning. As the low progressively becomes more negatively tilted with time this weekend into early next week, expect it to continue strengthening as it lifts into Lower Michigan; overall, we could see the low drop down to as low as the lower 980s mb before it begins to weaken. What is unique about this potentially historic system is that there seems to be two atmospheric river moisture sources associated with it: one from the Pacific Northwest and another from the Gulf. Thus, we may avoid getting 'dry-slotted' by the system via a continuous moisture feed over us from the two sources. As model guidance has generally continued to nudge the track of the low further north and west the past 24 hours, the bullseye for snowfall amounts associated with this system has also trended further north and west as well. Thus, some of the guidance earlier this morning was showing 24-hour snowfall amounts of 48 inches (wow!) over the north central and east Sunday into Monday. However, most other guidance is not showing amounts quite that high, and some of the more recent models have trended the higher snow totals back further south and east (see the 12z Canadian suite for example). That being said, with the system expected to bring strong winds over the lakes, lake enhancement via latent heat release from the (mostly) open waters looks to be high. Thus, expect snow totals from this system early next week (at least from Saturday night through Monday) to be in feet, closer to 1 to 2 feet in the west and edging up closer to potentially 1 to 3 feet or more in the central and east. As of now, the highest snowfall rates look to occur during the day Sunday across the area, with rates of 1" or higher expected for several hours. Even on the backside of the low on Monday, heavy lake enhanced snowfall of 1 or more inches per hour could be seen over the north wind snow belts. Thus, we could see impressive snow totals with this system, with some spots potentially seeing historic amounts. Another one of the aspects of this storm worth mentioning are the strong winds. With northeast and eventually northerly wind speeds of 40 to 60 mph potentially being seen across the area Sunday into Monday, widespread blowing snow is expected as the snowfall is expected to be fairly fluffy. While the high winds will help fracture the snow crystals and bring SLRs closer to 12:1 Sunday and Sunday night at the very least, given the high snowfall rates and winds, blizzard conditions are looking very possible Sunday, with the REFS shows up to a 90% chance for blizzard conditions (highest in Marquette County). As the snowfall continues to become fluffier Sunday night into Monday lake enhancement intensifies, wouldn't be surprised if we see blizzard chances increase across much of the north wind snow belts too for that time period. While the snowfall doesn't look to initially be wet and sticky like with what happened in the December snowstorm, given the strong north/northeasterly winds associated with the system, we may potentially see power outages across the region as several tree branches could break off. Overall, this could very well be a memorable winter storm that is well remembered by even the hardy Yooper community. Be sure to avoid travel on Sunday and Monday as it potentially could be impossible and life-threatening. Prepare ahead of time, be sure you stock up on any needed supplies, and hunker down as the system moves through early next week.

As the system leaves Monday through Monday night, expect a transition over to lake effect snow Monday night over the north wind snow belts. As this occurs, conditions improve slowly Monday into Monday night, with generally only light to moderate lake effect snow being seen over the north-northwest wind snow belts by Tuesday morning. As weakening high pressure ridging skirts into the area Tuesday, expect the lake effect snowfall to end across the area by late in the day. Behind the big winter storm system, expect polar air to keep well below normal temperatures across the region, with highs Monday and Tuesday only getting into the teens to lower 20s and lows Monday and Tuesday nights dropping down into the single positive digits in the interior to lower teens near the Great Lakes. Thus, we may see wind chills down to around -10F during the overnight hours Monday and Tuesday nights behind the impressive winter storm system.

For those mourning the return of the winter-time conditions, the good news for you is that around normal temperatures look to return for the last half of next week; the NBM brings highs back into the 30s and 40s as we finish out the last half of the work week. The catch? The warmer conditions will come on the heels of another Clipper low bringing additional snowfall to the area Wednesday. Thankfully, this doesn't seem to even compare in regards to snow totals or impacts with the big system coming in early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period as northwest winds diminish through this morning in the wake of the departing clipper low. Expect light winds through most of the day ahead of the strong storm system approaching the region late tonight. Snow may reach KIWD near the end of the TAF period, but otherwise expect deteriorating flight conditions to hold off at other terminals until after 06z Sun.

MARINE

Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

North to northeasterly gales up to 40 knots and freezing spray dwindle across Lake Superior this afternoon as the Clipper responsible for the hazardous conditions today continues weakening and leaving the area. As high pressure ridging returns this evening through Saturday, expect calm winds of 20 knots or less for Saturday.

However, the reprieve from active weather ends starting Saturday night as a low pressure moves off of the Central Rockies this weekend before intensifying and lifting into Lower Michigan late Sunday night and Monday morning. Winds intensify from the east Saturday night into Sunday and eventually northeast Sunday into Sunday evening, with gales up to 45 knots and heavy freezing spray being seen lake-wide by early Sunday evening. As the intensifying low moves through Lower Michigan late Sunday night through Monday morning, expect the strongest winds of the event to occur, with north to northeast storm force winds of 50 to 60 knots possible across the majority of the lake (the exception may be the far west where only high-end gales to 45 knots are expected); as of right now, the NBM even has over a 20% chance for hurrican-force winds over the eastern lake on Monday. The strong winds are projected to create waves as high as 25 to 30 feet over the south central lake (from Stannard Rock to the shoreline of Marquette and Alger counties).

As the low starts weakening and moving away early next week, expect the winds and waves to progressively weaken with time Monday night through Tuesday; heavy freezing spray looks to end and winds of 20 knots or less look to return by Tuesday evening. As another Clipper low approaches the area Wednesday, expect winds to turn southerly to 20 to 30 knots across the lake before dwindling down to 20 knots or less again Wednesday evening behind the Clipper.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Monday night for MIZ001>005-013-084.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for MIZ006-007-014-085.

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for MIZ009>012.

Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday night for LSZ162.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for LSZ240>242-263.

Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for LSZ240>242-263.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for LSZ243-244-264.

Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for LSZ243>250-264>266.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for LSZ245>250-265-266.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for LSZ251-267.

Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan... None.