textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will develop this evening before transitioning to all snow tonight. Freezing rain accumulations of up to a tenth inch are expected in the central UP, with mainly rain changing to snow in the west where temperatures are expected to be above freezing initially. 1-3 inches of snowfall is expected, highest east. Untreated surfaces and particularly secondary roads that are snow packed could become very slippery.

- Warmer than normal temperatures make a return this week. Freeze/thaw cycles may make ice on lakes hazardous as well as changing the texture of the snowpack for winter recreation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 441 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Early morning GOES-East water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows initial moisture aloft associated with a weak upper shortwave over northwestern Ontario, though the moisture aloft has not yet translated into precipitation, with only very light radar returns and no precipitation reported in METARs as of 08Z. Elsewhere in the RAP analysis at 500mb is deep troughing off the New England shores, weak ridging over northeast Ontario, more prominent troughing over Manitoba, and weak split flow over the Pacific NW/southern British Columbia region.

Today, the aforementioned weak shortwave will push over the UP, bringing a chance (up to 30%) of precipitation primarily in the 18Z to 00Z window this afternoon. Some breaks in the clouds and enhanced southerly low level flow ahead of an approaching cold front will allow for temperatures in the west today to climb above freezing, with upper 30s expected in the areas that downslope to Lake Superior such as northern Marquette and Baraga counties as well as Ontonagon. Additionally, downsloping areas will be prone to some gusty winds today in excess of 30 mph in some shoreline locations. Because of the locally warmer temperatures, the aforementioned chances of precipitation will come in multiple ptype flavors, mostly rain or snow, but some freezing drizzle is also possible in some locations, though not much accumulation is expected with the warmer daytime temperatures and warm asphalt surfaces that are exposed to the breaks in the clouds today.

Tonight, the deeper secondary trough rotates through northern Ontario and brings with it a surface low of near 1004 mb and associated cold front draped south of it across Upper Michigan. The 00Z HREF has significantly slowed down PoPs relative to its 12Z and previous 00Z counterparts with the arrival of widespread precip now expected after 00Z this evening. This timing allows for some cooling to occur, both aloft and at the surface, which has shifted the distribution of precipitation types from a relatively even mix to a snow-dominated one, though enough of a warm nose is present that freezing rain and sleet are still expected for at least some period of time tonight. While the probability of exceeding a tenth of an inch of ice is virtually 0% in the HREF (especially when considering the 00Z components of the ensemble and not the time-lagged components), the FRAM probability of exceeding 0.05" of ice is 30- 50% in the central UP, with the western UP seeing rain cleanly transitioning to snow overnight and the far eastern UP remaining snowy throughout the event. In the east, despite being in pure snow for the event, temperatures near freezing will limit the SLRs and so snow accumulations of generally around 2 inches are expected. Given the combination of winter weather hazards, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going, adding Luce County to the bunch but otherwise maintaining the current headlines.

For the midweek period, the wake of the front will allow high temperatures to range from near normal (20s on Wednesday) to near but mainly below freezing (Tuesday/Thursday). With 850mb temperatures bottoming out near -13C on Wednesday, some trailing NW wind lake effect snow showers are forecast, with inversion heights of around 5 kft and DGZ depths of over 5kft above that leading to some elevated SLRs near 20:1, though QPF struggles to exceed 0.05"/6hr rates. Should some localized convergence in the low level wind fields emerge from the ensembles or more moisture available than expected, an advisory-level snowfall is not out of the question, but for now, just light snowfall is forecast.

As high pressure establishes itself over the Great Lakes in the late week period and into the weekend, lake effect snow is expected to end by Thursday. A wide spread in the high temperatures is observed in the NBM, with 25th percentile highs for Thursday through the weekend sub-freezing, but 75th percentile highs are in the upper 30s and even low to mid 40s in some locations. While a healthy snowpack is in place that wont melt away entirely, if the 75th percentile is realized, the melting/refreezing cycles may impact the texture of the snowpack and may make lake ice particularly unstable. Outdoor winter recreators this weekend may wish to keep a close eye on the evolving temperature forecast for this reason. Otherwise, slight chance PoPs (around 15%) remain in the forecast as the UP is not directly in the path of synoptic systems this weekend, though a low projected to pass near the southern extent of the Hudson Bay has some ensemble clusters that bring the low far enough south to bring precip to the area. Additionally, ensembles do have some clusters of solutions that bring a CO Low to the southern Great Lakes basin by Sunday, though the ensembles are slightly more confident in the following low coming out of the Rockies for the beginning to middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 630 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

A few weak shortwaves will move through the Upper Great Lakes today, supporting gusty southerly winds this morning and a mix of categories. Overall, VFR conditions are expected at KIWD and KCMX today, although a prob30 group was added to KCMX this afternoon for a potential brief period of -FZRASN. KSAW is expected to improve to VFR later this morning.

By tonight, enough column saturation is expected for precipitation to occur. Snow is mostly expected given the slower onset being further into the evening and overnight than previous forecasts, but there are still questions about p-type at KSAW, which may experience light freezing rain. A prob30 group was added to reflect this period, which will change over to all snow if it does occur soon after. All sites will fall to MVFR with the potential for IFR visibilities and ceilings.

MARINE

Issued at 441 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Ahead of an approaching cold front, southerly winds gusting near 25 kt are expected over much of Lake Superior today. Winds briefly fall below 20 kt tonight before northwesterly winds behind the front are around 50% likely to exceed gale force gusts over the east half of the lake for Tuesday. With the potential gale will be waves of 7-10 ft and isolated heavy freezing spray threats. Wind gusts fall to near 25 kt by Wednesday afternoon and then fall below 20 kt overnight as high pressure becomes established over the Great Lakes. The next chances for high winds over Lake Superior will come late in the weekend to the beginning of next week depending on the track and intensity of low pressure emerging from the Rockies and passing through the Great Lakes area.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon to 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for MIZ004- 005-010>013.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ006-007-014-085.

Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.