textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain with some snow mixing in for the high elevations tracks west to east tonight through Thursday.

- Benign, low impact weather looks to continue this weekend into the early part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery increasing clouds across the UP as a shortwave drops south through the Canadian Prairie. This wave will support a weak sfc low pressure reflection set to track through Ontario tomorrow. Radar returns show an uptick in light rain/snow shower activity in northern MN and far western Lake Superior, forced by mid-level warm air advection. Expecting shower activity to spread into the northwestern UP tonight and progress eastward across the rest of the UP through Thursday. Snow may briefly mix in at times as temperatures cool tonight just below freezing, mainly in the higher elevation areas. Rainfall amounts remain rather meager as both the latest NBM/HREF point to low probability <50% for amounts >0.1" by Thursday night. Heading into Friday morning, the system's surface cold front will swing west to east, kicking out synoptic precip and ushering in cooler midlevel temps that will be sufficient enough for lake effect clouds / precip development over the NW wind snowbelt, particularly the east half. Bufkit profiles continue to be unimpressive, with dry air within the DGZ, a small inverted V at the surface, and lake inversion heights only 5-6 kft (highest east). This suggests some light lake effect rain/flurries with graupel mixed in.

Upper Michigan then settles into a low impact, zonal flow pattern this weekend into the early part of next week as daytime highs remain slightly above seasonal norms in the low 40s. A few embedded shortwaves will bring occasional chances for light precipitation, but do not see anything particularly noteworthy on the horizon at this time. Ensembles and their deterministic counterparts are honing in on active weather returning mid-week with a pair of waves working through the Great Lakes Tuesday/Wednesday, but differ on the speed and potential phasing of said systems.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 642 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR conditions will fall to MVFR/IFR as cloud cover overspreads the area tonight ahead of a cold front associated with low pressure moving through Ontario. Showers will also develop but at this time it looks like coverage will be spotty and intensity should remain light from IWD to SAW. CMX has a better chance for seeing more widespread showers along with periods of visibility restriction tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 257 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Winds will begin to increase out of the southwest across Lake Superior as the surface pressure gradient is squeezed between high pressure to the south and low pressure approaching from the west. This will result in winds increasing to 20-25 kt and spreading eastward tonight into Thursday as waves build to 3-5 ft west of the Keweenaw and 2-4 ft in the east. Winds shift westerly and northwesterly later Thursday into Friday, with the passage of a cold front, increasing NW winds between 25-30 kts and waves building to 4- 7 ft over the eastern half of the lake. Ensemble probability for Gales to 35 kts are low, with the Euro ENS suggesting a 10-30% chance across the eastern lake Friday afternoon and HREF/NBM only 10- 20%.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.