textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather is expected through Wednesday with highs near normal in the 30s/40s and lows in the teens/20s.

- Next period of widespread precipitation is expected Thursday, mainly in the form of light rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Radar mosaic this morning is quiet with lake effect snow showers even dwindling across the eastern counties. Surface analysis/water vapor imagery early this morning still shows Upper Michigan under the influence of high pressure stretching southeastward from Manitoba. Temperatures, however, seem to be the main focus with much of the interior west and central dipping into the teens. Farther east, though, lake effect cloud cover has helped to blanket the area where temperatures are currently holding in the upper 20s/low 30s. Meanwhile, a shortwave centered over the Central Plains is still expected to stay south of the U.P., resulting in a dry day with highs near normal in the upper 30s/low 40s. Significant radiational cooling will contribute to another cold night as the ridge of high pressure persists through tonight. Widespread teens will prevail across the interior west and central with low 20s over the east and Keweenaw tonight. Wednesday, look for another quiet day before the ridge of high pressure exits the area.

Wednesday night into Thursday, a northern stream trough will dig from the Canadian Prairies into the upper Great Lakes. Warm advection and DCVA is likely to force a band of mainly rain showers from possibly late Wednesday night into Thursday, although there is still uncertainty with the timing. If showers can work their way in as early as late Wednesday night, a few patches of freezing rain (or more likely, freezing drizzle, based on low-level saturation below a midlevel dry layer on some forecast soundings) cannot be ruled out before strong warm advection brings everyone above freezing on Thursday. The chance of this appears to be only 20-30% at the moment so not worth messaging at this time, but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, the bulk of the shower activity should be during the day Thursday along/ahead of the system's cold front, with the postfrontal airmass likely just cold enough to support light lake effect snow showers over the east Thursday night into Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 624 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions and light winds expected at Upper Michigan terminals through the period under high pressure.

MARINE

Issued at 624 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Winds diminish to less than 20 kt tonight as high pressure builds over the lake, with sub-20kt winds continuing through Wednesday. Southwesterly flow increases Wednesday night into Thursday, turning northwesterly and peaking at 25-30 kt Thursday night behind a cold front. Current probabilities of gales are less than 20%, though 25-30 kt winds continue into Friday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.