textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Impactful lake effect snow continues today. Additional accumulations of up to 6 inches in the east and 4 inches in the west are expected through this evening. Localized amounts up to 9 inches in Luce County. Blowing snow and reduced visibility down to 1/2 mile will also make travel hazardous.

- Coldest air of the season, and since January 2019, will create dangerous cold conditions through at least Saturday morning across Upper Michigan as temperatures remain below zero through Saturday morning for most of the UP.

- Temperatures below -15F and wind chills of -30F to -45F are expected this morning with similar conditions tonight.

- Those with outdoor plans, especially through Saturday morning should take extra precautions to limit their time outside. Do not forget pets!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Early morning RAP analysis and GOES water vapor imagery highlight a broad mid level trough across much of North America with a few embedded shortwaves dropping over North Dakota and Minnesota. At the surface, strong high pressure of near 1050mb is descending into the Plains and Midwest! This is ushering in the coldest airmass of the season thus far with 850mb temps around -34C. In tandem with mixed low level stronger winds gusting 20-35 mph, dangerous cold temps and wind chills are in place across the UP this morning. Temps near Lake Superior are in the single digits below, decreasing moving toward Wisconsin where negative teens to -20F are in place. Resulting wind chills are near -30F to as low as -45F, coldest along the WI/MI state line in Gogebic and Iron Counties. Temps this afternoon warm up to near 0F in the east to -10F in the west. Steady pressure rises keep 20-30 mph wind gusts going, holding wind chills mainly below -20F for most of the UP today. Some interior west will not see wind chills warm above -30F! Maintained the Extreme Cold Warnings as is and extended the Luce County Cold Weather Advisory to 15Z Saturday.

Northwest wind lake effect snow also continues with gusty winds and fine snowflakes yielding low visibilities down to 1/2 mile. Near blizzard conditions are expected this morning in the Keweenaw, however frequent wind gusts of 35+ mph with steady visibility down to 1/4 mile is no longer expected. Opted to hoist a Winter Storm Warning through 0Z Saturday for travel impacts affecting the morning and evening commutes today. Additional snow amounts will not be on the impressive side for most. Up to 4 inches in the west and 3 to 6 inches in the east is expected. Localized amounts up to 9 inches in Luce County is likely where there is more favorable low level convergence and since lake effect bands have a longer fetch across Lake Superior.

The wind profile will be lighter tonight, likely decoupling in the interior west. With moisture depleted already this evening, lake effect snow amounts will be low (mainly 2 inches or less) and cloud cover will diminish in the interior, favoring radiative cooling. Low temps tonight will be in the negative single digits to negative mid 20s with wind chills mainly -20F to -40F.

Lake effect snow showers lift away from Upper Michigan on Saturday as high pressure dominates the Great Lakes. Temps warm up briefly Saturday afternoon into the single digits above before once again dropping into the negative single digits to negative teens. That said, winds will be even lighter Saturday night, limiting extreme cold concerns. Lake effect snow returns on Sunday as high pressure begins to weaken. A clipper system passes over Lake Superior Monday night with trailing lake effect expected. The remainder of the extended forecast consists of low confidence shortwave/clipper systems with trailing lake effect as colder than normal temps persist under northwest flow aloft. Highs in the single digits to mid teens with lows in the single digits above/below are expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 556 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

NW lake effect snow continues through today before becoming westerly tonight. As this occurs, expect the western terminals to struggle to get above IFR during the daylight hours via the lake effect snow and blowing snow; expecting to see some more airport min vis at CMX through the day today. As the winds become more westerly this evening, expect IWD to improve back up to VFR. As for SAW, expect generally VFR conditions, but some MVFR vis could be seen from time to time this morning via the lake effect snow and some MVFR cigs are expected (over 50% chance) this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Widespread northwest winds of 25-30 kts are present lakewide this morning with gales up to 40 kts over the east. Maintained Gale Warnings through early this afternoon. Winds gradually weaken through tonight to around 20 kts or less by Saturday morning. Peak significant wave heights are occuring right now between 6-8 ft over the west and 9-13 ft over the east. Waves slowly diminish through the same period, falling below 4 ft Saturday morning in the west and by Saturday evening in the east. As a result of the coldest airmass of the season in place and the wind/wave forecast, ongoing heavy freezing spray diminishes from west to east through early Saturday morning. Maintained Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings as is, falling off from west to east this afternoon through Saturday morning. High pressure dominating the Great Lakes on Saturday backs winds southwest for Saturday night, holding 20 kts or less.

Winds look to mainly hold 20 kts or less until Monday. A passing clipper system increases southwest winds to 20-30 kts ahead of it on Monday. Winds veer northwest Monday night, persisting between 20-30 kts into mid next week. Gale probabilities currently reside around 10-30% with that system.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Saturday for MIZ001>006-009>014-084-085.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ001- 003.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ002- 004-084.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ006-007- 085.

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for MIZ007.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for LSZ162.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ240>242-263.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243>248-264-265.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.