textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon and evening, mainly in the east half.

- The warmest temperatures of the next week are expected tomorrow, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

- Showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for some to be strong to severe, are possible tomorrow and Monday.

- Generally quieter weather in store after Monday as we head into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly cloudy skies overhead Upper Michigan behind a departing shortwave. As troughing lingers and a weak vort max pivots over the area this afternoon, CAM guidance suggests that showers and thunderstorms may redevelop across the central and eastern half. There remains some uncertainty about exact timing and spatial extent of storms today given weak forcing, varying degrees of capping from west to east, and marginal but slightly increasing shear. Should thunderstorms manage to root themselves to a boundary and tap into enough of a shear/cape combo, cant rule out some small hail and gusty winds. Otherwise, temps fall into the 50s/60s with patchy dense fog is possible under calming winds and increase subsidence tonight.

Additional rounds of showers and storms are likely through the rest of the weekend into the early parts of next week as a "Ring of Fire" pattern sets up across the CONUS. Parked over the southern and central Plains is a stout ridge throwing weak shortwave perturbations along its northern fringes into the Great Lakes. This type of setup gives us high confidence that showers and storms are possible in the area, but low confidence on spatial coverage, exact timing, and to some extent the degree of severity. The next round presents itself tomorrow afternoon/evening although cant rule out an early day storm. Latest CAM ensembles suggests the greatest instability axis remains further west and south of the UP. Ensemble >40 dbz paintballs give a low confidence scenario on when and where the greatest potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will occur. Afternoon hodographs show plenty of low-level streamwiseness across the central UP tomorrow afternoon/evening, so cant rule out some spinning storms capable of producing large hail and weak tornadoes. SPC has increased the severe risk to a Slight (level 2 of 5) for the western 2/3rds of the UP.

A more amplified ridge-riding shortwave dives south into the Great Lakes on Monday, likely bringing a potential third round of strong to severe storms to the area. Favorable kinematics look more readily available in forecast soundings, though the main concern remains to be the timing of this wave. A faster, more progressive wave that works itself into the UP in the morning to early afternoon may limit the severe potential this far north. SPC continues to maintain a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across the UP and all of downstate.

Quieter weather returns beyond Monday into the middle of the week under the ridge axis and building surface high pressure.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

We begin the TAF period with MVFR ceilings at IWD and CMX; however, we expect some clearing at both terminals in the next couple of hours, bringing both terminals to VFR. Some lake breeze-induced showers and storms could impact SAW late this afternoon/early this evening; while confidence is still low on this occurring, should it occur we could very strong and erratic winds at the sfc and potentially some hail. The lake breeze convection dies-off not too long after sunset.

With winds becoming light tonight, we could develop fog at SAW and CMX late tonight; while confidence is still rather low (~20%), we did lower visibility to 3SM to highlight the potential fog threat.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Breezy S to SW winds diminish tonight leaving calmer winds <15 kts in place through the early parts of next week. Locally greater winds (including the potential for hail) may be found in thunderstorms this weekend into early next week as a "ring of fire" pattern brings multiple chances for thunderstorms to the region. Confidence remains low on specific timing and spatial extent of storms, but at this time the best chance for strong to severe storms looks to be on Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.