textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers continue through the work-week as multiple disturbances pass through the region.

- This afternoon, periodic whiteouts from snow and blowing snow are expected near Lake Superior with visibility down to half mile at times. Conditions improve tonight as snow and winds lighten.

- An area of moderate to heavy snowfall is expected by Wednesday afternoon in the east with amounts up to 12 inches possible. Exact location remains uncertain.

- Cold weather persists through the end of the week, with daytime highs in the single digits to teens and overnight lows mostly staying below or near zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Early afternoon GOES water vapor imagery and RAP analysis place Upper Michigan in the wake of the shortwave and clipper system. A closed low is observed well to the north over Hudson Bay and a ridge is noted upstream over the West CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is building in the west and to the south in the wake of the clipper system. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates 850mb temps between -20C and -22C, supporting the lake effect snow showers over the northwest wind snowbelts visible on the radar mosaic. Periodic whiteouts have been observed in the Keweenaw and eastern UP due to dry, finer snow and gusty northwest winds to 35 mph causing areas of blowing snow. Opted to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory in the Copper Country through Wednesday for visibility impacts. Visible satellite imagery shows broken low clouds extending well inland over the west half, but this will gradually decrease as low level winds back west for tonight and WAA lowers delta-Ts. Lake effect snow showers weaken and lift to the west-northwest wind snowbelts tonight. With the pressure gradient weakening as well, blowing snow should diminish overnight as well, improving travel conditions post evening commute.

The closed low meanders south over Northern Ontario mid-week, becoming an elongated trough on Thursday as it presses south over the UP through Friday morning. During this period, embedded shortwaves move through the region, re-invigorating lake effect snow showers. The first wave arriving on Wednesday brings another shot of colder 850mb temps of -23C to -25C. This is coupled with steepening lapse rates, low level f-gen over the east, and support from the left exit region of a 150kt upper level jet. While low level moisture will be a limiting factor moving further inland, light snow showers likely will be observed across the UP (lowest chances south- central between 10-20%). The main accumulations will be focused to the usual northwest wind snowbelt areas. Strong low level convergence and lake induced instability over the east will favor a area of moderate to heavy snow up to 12 inches somewhere south of Grand Marais, but exact placement is uncertain yet. Opted to continue Winter Weather advisories there as moderate to heavy snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour and additional blowing snow with gusts up to 30 mph will have impacts on the Wednesday commutes. Snow totals this afternoon through Wednesday are 0.5 to 3 inches over the west, highest northwest of M-26 where 3 to 6 inches is expected. Higher amounts up to 7 inches are expected in the east, mainly north of M-28 and east of Munising. If confidence continues to increase, a Winter Storm Warning could be warranted for hazardous travel condition and heavy snowfall amounts. While amounts in the west will be lesser, similar visibility concerns are anticipated.

Lake effect snow showers continue through Friday, shifting to the north wind snowbelts by Thursday and potentially northeast Thursday night into Friday. That said, confidence on placement is low as moving ice on Lake Superior could have impacts on low level winds. Also there remains some wiggle room on shortwaves timing/track. Otherwise below normal temps continue the rest of the work week with highs in the single digits above to teens and lows mainly in the single digits below. High pressure ridging and WAA this weekend bring a warm up and break from lake effect snow showers. Highs back in the 20s and lows in the single digits above to teens are expected. This break in precip won't last long as more shortwaves arrive from the northwest, but guidance quickly diverges into next week as the western ridge breaks down.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 732 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

With a shift to westerly winds, IWD has briefly returned to VFR this evening. However, do not expect that to last long as lake effect clouds begin filtering in again overnight. Elsewhere, CMX will remain at IFR/LIFR with blowing snow in lake effect conditions. West- -northwesterly winds will continue to gust up to 30 kts through tomorrow morning, weakening a bit to 20 to 25 kts tomorrow afternoon. Meanwhile, SAW has the best chance of being VFR tonight into tomorrow morning. But, a return to MVFR is also inevitable there, too, around mid-morning tomorrow as lake effect snow returns.

MARINE

Issued at 359 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Northwest winds of 20-30 kts continue into tonight, mainly becoming 15-25 kts for Wednesday. Some gusts to 30 kts are expected late in the day on Wednesday over the central waters. Heavy freezing spray continues lakewide through early Wednesday morning, ending over the west in the morning and holding on in the east through early Thursday morning. North winds 15-25 kts are expected Thursday and Thursday night, increasing to 20-30 kts for Friday; heavy freezing spray will accompany these stronger winds. High pressure returning this weekend returns winds to 20 kts or less.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ001>004-006-007-084-085.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Wednesday for LSZ162.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Wednesday for LSZ240>244-263-264.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.