textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures nearly seasonal (mid 50s to mid 60s) through the weekend into Monday.

- A Clipper low passing through the region this weekend brings additional light rain chances this afternoon into early Sunday. Winds behind the cold front will be gusty, with a 30-60% chance of reaching gale conditions over mainly eastern Lake Superior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

With observing platforms showing temperatures having already dropped into the 30s across much of the interior U.P. early this morning, and with some spots already getting as low as the mid-20s, a widespread frost/freeze is being realized this morning as high pressure ridging skirting overhead is creating mostly clear skies. Therefore, the current Freeze Warning for all but Keweenaw County (and the Frost Advisories over the far east) will expire at 10 AM EDT this morning as it will take a couple of hours of sunshine to warm things up at the sfc. With a Clipper still slated to move towards the area today, expect cloud cover to gradually increase from west to east throughout the daylight hours. This, in conjunction with the antecedent cooler air aloft, will keep highs mainly in the mid to upper 50s, although some spots may be able to sneak to or just above 60. While some guidance like the NAM suite has rainfall starting as early as late this morning to early this afternoon over the west half, thinking the antecedent dry air in the lower levels may take more time to be overcome due to the sfc ridging moving overhead early this morning (that escapes to the east later today). That being said, as the atmospheric profile moistens in the lower levels by the mid to late afternoon hours from west to east across the Yoop, expect to see light rainfall falling across most of the area by the time the sun sets this evening. While not much rainfall is expected with the Clipper's passage, thankfully the rainfall amounts have trended ever-so-slightly upwards, with most of the area seeing a 30 to 60% chance of seeing more than a quarter inch of rainfall between this evening and Sunday evening. However, rainfall amounts could be higher over the higher terrain of Marquette County as the latest REFS shows chances of over a quarter inch of rainfall at around 60 to 85%, whereas the 'Golden Triangle' region from Iron Mountain, Escanaba, and Menominee only as a 25% chance or less of that happening (city of Menominee near 0%).

While we can expect some breezy conditions today with winds increasing from the south to 20 to 25 mph by this evening, expect gustier northwest winds behind the Clipper low on Sunday; northwest wind gusts of 30 to even occasionally 40 mph could be seen over the Keweenaw and along the Lake Superior shoreline east of Marquette behind the low. While the delta-Ts and strong winds over Lake Superior may support a very quick burst of post-frontpa light rain showers on Sunday, lake effect rain/drizzle shower chances don't appear to impact the area until Sunday night as another round of reinforcing CAA drops down into the region. The incoming Clipper and CAA behind it should keep temperatures fairly normal the rest of today through Monday, with highs generally being in the 50s to lower 60s.

Moving into the rest of next week, expect a slight warm up by the mid-week as another Clipper system passing through northern Ontario draws in a little bit of WAA. Thus, expect highs to return to the 60s with some spots getting up to around 70 by Tuesday and Wednesday. However, with guidance mostly keeping the area dry during the mid-week with the Clipper's passage, this may lead to fire weather concerns given the drought conditions across the area, the strong winds ahead of and behind the Clipper's passage, and the falling dead leaves offering another sfc fuel source for fire to work with. With the jet stream staying nearly overhead as we head into late next week, we could see temperatures return to near normal again before rising above normal yet again to end the period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 713 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR prevails this morning as mid to high level clouds return ahead of an approaching shortwave. Rain shower chances increase from west to east from ~18z this afternoon. Ceilings eventually fall to MVFR/IFR late tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 145 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Lake Superior: Light winds of 20 kts or less early this morning give way to increasing southerly winds today as a Clipper low approaches from the west, eventually skirting by the northern lakeshore tonight. Before the Clipper passes, expect the southerly winds to reach 20 to 30 kts across the lake this evening, with a few gale force gusts up to 35 kts possible over the open eastern lake (up to 40% chance). Behind the Clipper late tonight, expect the winds to veer west and eventually northwest by Sunday, with gales up to 35 kts possible over the east half (up to a 60% chance); therefore a Gale Watch is in effect for Sunday across the eastern lake. While another shot of CAA is looking to keep winds elevated Sunday night to mainly 20 to 30 kts (with a few gale force gusts up to 35 kts possible over the eastern lake again), expect the winds to die down to 20 kts or less again by Monday as high pressure ridging rolls back through the area. Another Clipper that passes by to the north looks to bring southerly winds of 20 to 25 kts back across the lake late Tuesday. Once the cold front passes early Wednesday, we could see westerly winds of 20 to 30 kts return over the lake.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Light winds of 15 kts or less this morning increase from the south later today as a Clipper low approaches the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of the Clipper touching the north shore of Lake Superior tonight, expect the zenith of southerly winds to be 20 to 25 kts this evening, with some southwesterly wind gusts up to 30 kts being possible late tonight as the winds start to veer with time. Behind the Clipper, expect west and eventually northwest winds on Sunday to pick up to around 20 to 25 kts; with another reinforcing shot of CAA working through the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night, expect the higher wind speeds to remain until high pressure moving in on Monday slackens winds back down to 15 kts or less late in the day. A second Clipper low moving through northern Ontario on Tuesday does look to increase winds from the south and southwest 25 to 30 kts by late in the day, with some gales up to 35 kts not completely out of the realm of possibility (up to 20% chance). However, as the winds veer with time Tuesday night into Wednesday to the west, expect them to slowly die down, eventually becoming 15 kts or less again by Wednesday evening.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for MIZ002>007-009>014-084-085.

Lake Superior... Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for LSZ248>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan... None.