textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow ends from west to east this evening with one to three inches of additional snowfall in the eastern U.P.

- Lake effect will develop in the north-northwest wind snowbelts overnight, particularly in Alger County were a few inches of snowfall can be expected.

- Another widespread snowfall is expected Thursday night into Friday. Strong winds could bring near whiteout conditions to parts of the eastern U.P. and Keweenaw Thursday night. Winter Storm Watches are in effect.

- A strong winter storm will track through the Great Lakes late this weekend. Uncertainty remains but there is the potential for significant impacts to the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

This afternoon upper air analysis and satellite water vapor imagery showed a trough moving through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes with a sfc low over eastern Lower Michigan. Upstream another shortwave was coming onshore over the Pacific NW which will impact our weather later this week. Radar and sfc observations showed a band of snow over the east-central U.P. slowly pushing eastwards from this morning into the early afternoon hours. Another area of snow was back over the north-central U.P. in an area of lake enhancement. Winds were gusty from the north-norhtwest, particularly along the Lake Superior shoreline and over the Keweenaw. Overall snow rates were light to occasionally moderate with the bands. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 20s, a bit below average.

As the low pressure pulls away from the region tonight snow will come to an end over the central U.P. this afternoon and east this evening. However, cooling low to mid levels will result in lake effect snow showers developing over the eastern half of Lake Superior. Some of the CAMs have a period tomorrow morning with stronger convergence and inversion heights pushing 9 kft. Introduced PoPs and snow accumulation for the lake effect but confidence is very low in the placement of the band(s). There is the potential for localized snowfall of up to 4" but overall 1-2" is expected, with the best chance in Alger County. Lake effect will eventually shift offshore on Thursday as winds become lighter in the afternoon and shift south towards evening, ahead of the next system.

Thursday night through Friday a vigorous clipper low will push through the U.P. bringing widespread moderate to heavy snowfall with it. A period of one inch per hour snow rates looks likely during the overnight hours followed by light to moderate snow on Friday, especially in the north wind lake effect belts. Confidence in the forecast has become a bit lower as the CAMs largely have a more northerly track compared to the global models. Will stick with Winter Storm Watches at this time given the uncertainty in the track. Also mentioned blowing snow in the watches, with near whiteout conditions possible in the Keweenaw and eastern U.P. on Thursday night as southeasterly winds strengthen, gusting 40 mph, possibly higher along the Lake Superior shoreline of the Keweenaw.

Friday night into Saturday will bring a reprieve from the winter weather with lows in the single digits and teens and seasonable highs in the low 30s. It still appears that a significant winter storm will track through the Great Lakes late this weekend bringing a swath of one to two feet of snowfall. Ensembles seem to be converging with the low tracking through southern or central Lower Michigan, which keeps the heaviest axis of snow to the south and east of the U.P., with widespread light snow across the U.P. and areas of upslope/lake enhancement. There is the potential for strong winds with this system as well with possible blizzard conditions where the heavier snow occurs. Changes to the forecast track and details are likely as we get closer to the weekend.

Monday into Tuesday will see much colder air move into the area with highs only in the teens Monday and low to mid 20s Tuesday. CPC continues to highlight better chances for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for days 6-10.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The weather system that has been bringing snow, along with IFR/LIFR conditions to most of the the area will gradually trend to the east this evening. MVFR conditions have already developed at IWD, with MVFR conditions expected at CMX by 20Z and SAW by 23Z. Tonight, winds will die down and conditions will trend to VFR at all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low pressure just east of Lake Huron will push away from the region tonight resulting in a relaxing pressure gradient and northwest winds subsiding to 25 kt overnight, and then below 20 kt tomorrow. The next storm system approaches the region tomorrow night bringing strong winds to the lake. Southeast gales are likely Thursday night (70-80% chance), shifting north Friday morning. There is a chance for a few gusts to storm force (40-60% chance). Winds will shift north on Friday with gales up to 40 kt before falling below 20kt on Saturday morning. There is a potential for another winter storm to bring another round of gales Sunday into Monday (50-60% chance), though there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding track and timing of this next system. As colder air moves into the area Sunday into Monday heavy freezing spray will develop across much of the lake.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for MIZ001>004-009>012-084.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ005.

Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for MIZ005.

Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006- 007-085.

Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for MIZ006-007-013-014-085.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ013- 014.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.