textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Two rounds of widespread light to moderate snow are expected late tonight through Friday, followed by lake effect snow into the weekend.

- A period of strong winds and low visibility in blowing snow is becoming more likely during the Friday morning commute, especially across the north-central and eastern UP.

- Warmer than normal temperatures make a return next week. This will create areas of unstable ice on inland lakes and along the Great Lakes shoreline.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals increasing clouds as a shortwave skirts through James bay to the north. Weak sfc high pressure influence and little temperature advection has allowed surface temps to reach the 20s across the UP today. Tonight, temps will fall back into the teens and single digits, coldest across the interior. Widespread light snow is set to develop late tonight through early Friday morning as a kink in the stout western ridge descends across SE through the Upper Great Lakes. Given elevated DGZ heights 8-10k ft, 6 hourly QPF amounts generally <0.1", and SLRs ~15:1, snowfall amounts by Thursday afternoon will fall between 1-3" with the higher end seen further west and in the Keweenaw. Light lake effect snow showers may linger in the west wind snowbelts Thursday evening.

Two additional troughs are anticipated to impact Upper Michigan Thursday night into Friday morning. The first follows a similar track to the aforementioned wave tonight/tomorrow, while the second is a deeper trough shifting southeast across N Ontario / James Bay. In tandem, these two features will work to bring another round of light widespread snow late Thursday trough Friday morning but will also send a sharp cold front across Lake Superior around the Friday morning commute. Behind the cold fropa, strong cold air advection and pressure rises will result in widespread wind gusts >30 mph. In the Keweenaw and central/eastern Lake Superior shorelines, ensembles suggest a 60-80% chance for gusts nearing 40 mph. At the same time, this cold airmass will quickly reinvigorate lake effect snow in the N to NW winds snowbelts. This raises concerns for the Friday morning commute where blowing snow may create areas of very low visibility. What is also worth noting is that recent ice cover growth along the nearshore from Marquette to Munising may further exacerbate the blowing snow risk as snow blows off the ice. As temps fall and the DGZ lowers near the surface Friday afternoon, gusty N winds and fine powder snow character may continue to create blowing and drifting snow through the day. In total, 2-4" of lake effect snow is anticipated through Friday for the NNW wind snowbelts. Lingering light LES showers continue into Saturday, with an additional 1-2 inches possible in the east half.

Beyond this weekend, a warming trend is expected with highs near or above freezing. This may create unstable ice on inland lakes and in sheltered bays/shorelines in the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 622 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions prevail until Thursday morning when the next system snow overspreads the UP, lowering vis at CMX/SAW to IFR. Potential for MVFR vis at IWD was only ~30-40%, so a PROB30 group was used from 10-14Z. Lower vis to LIFR at CMX/SAW was only between 15-25%, so mention was left out for now. Vis improvement to MVFR/VFR is likely in the afternoon, but cigs look to remain stubbornly in the IFR/MVFR range through the remaining portion of the 0Z TAF period. Otherwise winds turn SSW, increasing to around 10 kts for Thursday morning, then become west in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 342 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Tonight brings an increase of southwest winds to 20-25 kts ahead of the next system. A cold front Friday morning quickly veers winds out of the north to gales of at least 35-45 kts across the eastern two thirds of the lake; 20-30 kts winds are expected over the far west. There currently is a 50-75% chance for high end gales to 45 kts over the central third of the lake, currently reflected in the forecast given the cold airmass and strong pressure rises on Friday. This also yields heavy freezing spray into Saturday morning when winds fall back to near 20 kts lake-wide.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.