textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering lake effect snow mostly ends this morning. Additional accumulations up to 1-3 inches, highest east near Lake Superior.

- Dangerous cold conditions are ongoing this morning with temperatures between -10F and -30F and wind chills mainly between -25F to -40F.

- Cold conditions return tonight into Sunday morning with temperatures down to -10F to -25F with wind chills as low as -30F.

- Those with outdoor plans this weekend should take extra precautions to limit their time outside, especially during the morning hours. Don't forget about pets!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

The mid level pattern prevails as GOES water vapor imagery and RAP analysis still indicate a broad trough encompassing a great portion of North America. The closed low has now moved to Newfoundland and Labrador with a weak/brief ridge overhead and a multitude of embedded waves over the Canadian Prairie. Beneath it a dry and cold airmass accompanies the 1043mb high pressure over the Midwest as latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates temps of -24C to -25C and PWATS of ~0.05", both below the 10th percentile of NAEFS climatology. With light winds and clear skies across much of the central and interior west, radiative cooling processes have allowed temps to drop down to -10 to -20 so far this morning, yielding wind chills of -30 to -40. Maintained Extreme Cold Warnings through 10 AM EST as improvement holds off until mid morning and additional cooling down to -30 is expected interior west.

Given the cold temps aloft, lake effect snow showers continue with a near surface DGZ and inversion heights around 5kft. With the drier snow type, additional accumulations will be limited (up to 3 inches), especially as high pressure settles south and shifts low level winds out of the west to southwest through this morning. This eventually lifts showers away from the UP. The primary focus was on lower visibilities down to 1/2 mile at times through the morning hours. Downgraded Winter Storm Warnings to Winter Weather Advisories and extended the advisories out until 10 AM EST. Dropped northern Schoolcraft County as impacts primarily will be focused near Lake Superior due to the stable low layers weakening lake effect showers as they move onshore. Otherwise temps warm up into the single digits above for most this afternoon save for just below 0 far west.

High pressure, drier air, and light winds have an influence on the temps once again tonight. Forecasted conditions walk the line with needing Cold Weather Advisories as winds being near calm prevent concerning wind chills for many, but interior temps between -10 and - 25 are expected by early Sunday morning. Temps on Sunday once again warm up into the single digits above to low teens east. Lake effect snow showers return out of the northwest as high pressure overhead weakens due to a low pressure tracking northeast along the Atlantic Coast. LES 12 hour totals of up to 1-3 inches are expected over the northwest wind snowbelts Sunday and Sunday night. A slightly warmer airmass brings a bigger DGZ presence, raising SLRs a bit and presenting lesser visibility concerns.

LES lifts away from Lake Superior on Monday ahead of a clipper system for monday night into Tuesday. While moisture continues to be unimpressive, some widespread light snow up to 0.5" is possible (~30% chance) with higher amounts where lake enhancement occurs. Trailing lake effect snow is expected as a mid level western ridge keeps northwest flow persistent over the region. Model agreement quickly falls apart next week regarding timing or track of any additional shortwave/clipper systems, but near to below normal temps persist (5F to 10F below normal). Highs in the single digits above to mid teens and lows in the single digits above/below are forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 626 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for IWD and SAW. Lake effect snow showers will result in MVFR conditions at CMX through this morning before improving to VFR this afternoon as lake effect snow showers shift north and offshore. Some guidance has a period of lower visby (IFR) mid-morning as the lake effect starts to lift north but strong stability over the land has been quickly weakening any lake effect snow coming onshore. Did not include mention of this in the TAF due to strong stability and very low confidence of lower visby occuring. As the flow becomes northwest behind a cold front early Sunday morning lake effect snow showers will push back onshore across the Keweenaw, included PROB30 for this at CMX.

MARINE

Issued at 425 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Northwest winds of 15-25 kts this morning back southwest today, mainly becoming 20 kts or less this afternoon. Heavy freezing spray over the east ends this morning. Winds veer northwest late tonight through early Sunday afternoon, increasing to 15-25 kts as high pressure weakens and a low pressure tracks to the southeast. Winds back west for Monday, increasing to 20-30 kts ahead of a clipper system Monday night into Tuesday. Winds veer northwest Tuesday morning as a result, holding 20-30 kts into Tuesday night. While the forecast reflects northerly winds of 20-30 kts are favored into mid/late next week, gale probabilities remain mainly 15% or less. Moderate to heavy freezing spray looks to accompany these northerly winds.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ001-003-006-007.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan... None.