textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers will bring 2 to 6 inches of snowfall for the northwest wind lake effect snowbelts of the eastern U.P through this afternoon. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect.

- A low pressure system tracking through Lower Michigan late Saturday and Sunday will bring 50-60% chances of 6 inches of system snow along Lake Michigan, and a reinvigoration of Lake Superior lake effect snowfall.

- Lake effect snow showers persist along with cool overnight lows next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Early this morning satellite water vapor imagery and model analysis showed an upper level low pressure over western Quebec with weak shortwave ridging upstream over the high plains and Canadian Prairies ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Surface analysis showed the surface low that brought widespread snowfall to the U.P now over Quebec with a high pressure over the Central Plains. A tight pressure gradient remained over the with gusty northwesterly winds and widespread lake effect snow showers in the northwest wind snowbelts. Temperatures had fallen into the low 20s over the interior and 20s to near 30 along Lake Superior.

Today, northwesterly winds will continue across the U.P with lake effect snow showers in the northwest wind snowbelts, especially over the eastern half of the U.P where moisture/thermal profiles and convergence are more favorable for light to occasionally moderate snow showers. Over the western U.P inversion heights will fall and somewhat drier air will begin to reduce the intensity and coverage of any snow showers. Overall additional accumulations today will be in the 2-4" range over the east and less than an inch over the west. Localized amounts up to 6" are possible in the east where more dominate bands set up. Highs today will be in the 20s over much of the central and west to the low 30s over the east.

Tonight the surface low will weaken as it moves into eastern Quebec and high pressure builds over the Midwest. This should allow for a land breeze to develop and push much of the lake effect snow showers back offshore. Light winds and drier air will help temperatures fall into the single digits over the interior and teens lakeside.

By Saturday, attention turns upstream to a shortwave trough diving through the Plains. Ensembles have honed in on a surface low pressure track from Missouri Saturday evening to the Michigan Thumb Sunday morning and quickly to Quebec by Sunday night. Models have trended to a track that would bring light precipitation over much of the U.P with the heavier precipitation over Menominee and southern Delta Counties. At this time the most likely scenario would bring 1- 2" of snowfall over the western U.P and 1-3" over the east. Lake enhancement could bring heavier snowfall to Menominee and southern Delta counties where ensemble probabilities for 6+" of snowfall are around 60%. Northeast flow over the northern half of the U.P could bring lake effect/enhancement to the northeast wind snowbelts, especially in Marquette County. The axis of strongest snowfall could also threaten multiple corridors that will be stressed from the end of Thanksgiving weekend travel. Those with outdoor and travel plans this weekend should monitor the forecast for updates and possible headlines.

Uncertainty grows into next week as high pressure skirts around the Great Lakes in the wake of the low and then one or more clipper lows pass near the area next week, though ensembles are highly spread on the track, intensity, and timing of such a feature. With Lake Superior around 5 C, 850mb temperatures of around -10 C should all but guarantee at least some presence of LES, and the LREF suggests 50-90% chances of that temperature or cooler, even with periods of SW flow next week. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail at the surface as well, especially overnight, where the NBM calls for single-digit lows for many interior UP locations, including some lows near 0 Monday and Tuesday morning (though raw, un-"bias corrected" model guidance would suggest warmer temperatures).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 712 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Conditions are hovering around the VFR/MVFR mark early this morning at TAF sites. However, it will be tough for flight restrictions to be lifted, yet, because of lingering lake effect snow showers in northwest flow. As a result, will continue to carry tempos and PROB30s to highlight brief periods of MVFR/IFR. But, on the plus side, conditions should not fall below IFR. Meanwhile, northwesterly winds at CMX and SAW still gusting up to 25 kts could create visibility impacts in blowing snow at times.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Winds are expected to fall below gales this morning as the surface low lifts through Quebec and the pressure gradient relaxes over the region. Winds over the eastern half of the lake will remain near 30 kt through the day before falling below 20 kt this evening. Waves will take some time to relax, only falling below 12 ft in the southeast by this afternoon and below 4 ft early Saturday morning. A low pressure passing through the southern Great Lakes basin will ramp up wind gusts to 20-30 kt Sunday with ensemble guidance suggesting up to 60% chances of a brief localized gale in the southeastern region of Lake Superior. Wind gusts will then remain around 20-30 kt next week as high pressure to the south of the Great Lakes is opposed by occasional clipper low pressure systems.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ005.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006- 007-014-085.

Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.