textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread light snow is expected tonight into Monday morning, followed by lake effect snow downwind of Lake Superior into Tuesday.

- Confidence is growing that a widespread light to moderate snow and stronger wind event will move through Upper Michigan Thursday night into Friday.

- Near normal temperatures favored this weekend and for the coming week for most of Upper Michigan.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Guidance continues to suggest the pattern across Canada and CONUS for the this forecast period will include large scale ridging building up the west coast and Rocky Mountains, with broad troughing fluctuating across eastern CONUS. This pattern favors average northwest flow aloft into the Great Lakes, providing surface troughs and clippers a road to drive through the region along. We've already moved through the warm air advection period of the coming trough, having already hit peaked 850mb temps near -6C today per SPC mesoanalysis. This and mid-level dry air supporting mostly clear skies for most of Upper Michigan have allowed most to warm into the mid to upper 20s.

The trough is currently analyzed draped southward through Minnesota just west of Duluth. Satellite trends and modeled guidance continue to push this feature through the region this evening and tonight, with snow gradually filling in the dry airmass. Models continue to suggest mostly 1 to 3 inches of snow across the region, supported by lake enhancement off of Lake Michigan in the east and terrain enhancement along the Spine and the eventual change over to lake effect. Overnight lows tonight look to fall into the teens forecast area wide. A surface high drops into the Northern Plains Tuesday. Positional differences and modeled ice coverage continue to add uncertainty to when lake effect downwind of Lake Superior ends, but there has been a trend toward the shower activity holding on longer. Have replicated this with continued PoPs through the Tuesday evening, with activity largely diminishing Tuesday morning in the west and through the day or Tuesday evening in the east. Overall, lake effect will be light, on the order of an 0.5 to 1 inch per 6 hours in the heaviest showers.

A weak and mostly dry shortwave and surface trough looks to quickly through the region Wednesday into the evening. This is then followed by a more organized clipper low moving through Ontario Thursday and Friday. Last night's 0z and 6z GEFS and EC ensemble highlighted a clear northward shift to the modeled mean low's position, and a jump in surface low clustering northward. This trend continued in this morning's 12z guidance, which now includes the GEPS jumping on board the band wagon. 850mb airmass ahead of the low has also trended a little warmer, with guidance now trending toward warming to -6C or warmer, which could translate to warming above freezing Thursday. Latest GEFS and EC ensemble both suggests this probability ranges from 10 across the east to ~50% in the west. There are also suggestions that above freezing temperatures could linger into Thursday night. Despite this northward trend with the surface low, strong winds are still anticipated with the low or the frontal passage in our forecast area. This is thanks to continued representation of at least a 1030mb high moving south through western Ontario Friday and strong cold air advection behind the trough. This continues the consensus of a 25-35 mph wind event, with gusts to 40 or higher most likely by the Lake Superior Lakeshores and north of Houghton in the Keweenaw Friday (~30% chance at the moment per latest NBM). Total snow amounts continue to be uncertain given the uncertainty in the track, but overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest only a 10-40% chance of eclipsing 3 inches in 24 hours. Given the combination of light snow, increasing cold air, and the stronger winds, blowing snow may be a concern Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 627 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

As -SHSN spreads from W to E this evening, MVFR conditions are observed at IWD with CMX on the cusp of VFR/MVFR and SAW still yet to see snow or clouds below 12kft. All 3 sites are likely (65+%) to fall to MVFR, with 25-35 percent chances of periods of IFR at all sites. Models have trended higher with visibility in general, especially this evening at IWD, owing to surface temperatures warming more than initially expected, so the snow will not be the tiny flakes that easily drop visibility like has been the case much of January. Once the initial wave of -SHSN passes, NW wind lake effect takes over, but it will be light and chances of precipitation are generally around 30 percent in the morning hours of Monday and dry weather then follows for late Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Guidance continues to promote a consensus ideal of the coming pattern, with continued shots of cold air and troughs, preceded by periods of southerly stronger winds. Ongoing southerly winds of 25- 30kts will shift to the northwest behind an eastward moving trough tonight into Monday, with these northwest winds increasing to 20- 30kts by Monday, highest expected across the east. After these winds lighten Monday night into Tuesday morning, expecting light winds below 20kts through at least Thursday ahead of the next system. This system continues to look like a low end gale and heavy freezing spray event between Thursday night and early Saturday morning.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.