textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning for Southern Schoolcraft and Luce counties, where lake effect snow transitioning to system snow may bring an additional 2-4" of snow. Highest amounts are expected closer to the Chippewa/Mackinac county borders.

- Another batch of light to moderate snow moves through tonight. Snow totals of 2-4" are expected closer to the WI border, but a more northerly track of the system may bring higher totals in excess of 4" (30-50% chance, highest over Menominee county).

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Gogebic, Iron, Dickinson and Menominee counties tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through this week and beyond. Low temperatures in the single digits to near zero are possible late this week into this upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Early morning RAP analysis has a midlevel shortwave dropping into the Great Lakes, with the associated surface low beginning to move over western Lake Superior. Light snow has spread across the UP out ahead of it, and persistent southerly flow is leading to lake enhancement of of Lake Michigan across the far eastern UP. Though hard to spot given the distance from, well, any radar, there are hints on radar of a more robust band developing courtesy of that long SSW fetch over Lake Michigan. This appears to be directed over US-2 east of Manistique, extending inland across M-28 towards Newberry. Indeed, visibility at Newberry has been coming in below a mile for a couple of hours at this point, even falling below a half mile at times. Latest hi-res guidance shows a potential for heavier banding and snowfall rates in excess of 1in/hr lingering after sunrise in the far eastern UP, so the Winter Weather Advisory in the eastern UP has been extended to 14Z. Elsewhere, snowfall rates remain rather light, though drops in visiblity have been noted area- wide, and any snow accumulations could lead to slick roadways into the morning commute.

Meanwhile, a pocket of dry midlevel air is apparent over MN and western WI as the shortwave pulls away. Nighttime microphysics looks rather murky, with plenty of low stratus. Surface observations show lingering visibility restrictions and a stray snowflake. This is all to say that some lingering flurries and even freezing drizzle will not be ruled out behind this main batch of snow. Significant icing is not expected, but it does point to a further risk for slick spots on the roadways. Take it slow.

Finally, we briefly dry out into the afternoon as this initial wave pulls away. A few breaks in the cloud cover will be possible, while temperatures (currently in the teens/low 20s) rise ever so slightly into the low/mid 20s. Then, the next, stronger clipper drops out of the Northern Plains tonight. There remains an interesting amount of disagreement between global and hi-res models for an event barely 24 hours out. Hi-res guidance shows a deeper midlevel trough, a more northerly track in the surface low, and a more northward shove of heavier QPF compared to the global models. This puts our WI- bordering counties right on the northern edge of the heavier QPF, while global models have the heaviest accumulations more comfortably southward over central WI. So, confidence in warning-level totals remains low, but this latest forecast has nudged up totals in our Wisconsin-bordering counties slightly to account for the hi-res guidance. This gives us a general 2-4in of snow from Gogebic to Menominee counties, with a potential for some higher totals in depending on the track of the system. For its part, the HREF does indicate a potential for snowfall rates in excess of an inch per hour sweeping from west to east mainly between midnight and 4am. Elsewhere across the UP, totals tonight range in the 1-3in range, highest over the north-central UP given enhancement off of Superior. Have therefore decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the southern UP tonight into Wednesday morning.

The main batch of snow quickly moves out early Wednesday, but amid chilly north and eventually NW flow, expect lake effect snow to linger. This isn't looking to be terribly heavy given the rather dry midlevels indicated in soundings, but another couple of inches will be possible in the north and NW wind snow belts. Gusty winds develop behind the cold front, with gusts to 20-25mph common and stronger gusts to near 30mph possible nearer Lake Superior. This could lead to some blowing snow. Temperatures hover in the teens to lower 20s.

Otherwise, medium range guidance continues to point to cold temperatures persisting across the region through the period as highs fall back into the teens and overnight lows again flirt with sub zero readings by the end of this week. Our Clipper parade continues as well. Of note: models continue to hint at another stronger Clipper system approaching during the weekend, but differ greatly on strength, progression, and timing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 622 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions are ongoing at each TAF site this morning as a clipper makes its final glancing blow across the UP this morning. Cigs/vis will improve to MVFR as snow tapers down, however, light lake effect snow will persist mainly at CMX this afternoon. Another clipper is set to work south of the UP tonight through Wednesday morning, bringing another round of light snow and IFR conditions. Heavier snow at IWD may bring LIFR vis at times after 00z. Otherwise, gusty N winds pick up behind the passing clipper tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Southerly winds continue to gust to around 20-25kts across the eastern half of the lake early this morning, but briefly fall back below 20kts by the afternoon while veering to the WNW. Winds will then quickly increase out of the northeast late this evening as the next system passes south of the area, with winds turning northerly overnight. This leads to a brief period of 35-40kt NE gales over western Lake Superior tonight, particularly between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale. As winds turn to the N and then NW during the daytime hours Wednesday, gales will become concentrated over the central and eastern waters, falling off from west to east during the evening. Have opted to issue a Gale Warning late tonight through Wednesday. Will also have to watch for moderate to locally heavy freezing spray in these areas. Winds then turn northwesterly and drop below 20 kt for much of the rest of the work week. Then, the potential for gales returns late Friday night and into the weekend with quickly-moving shortwave trough followed by steep ridging.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ007- 014.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MIZ009>012.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ242>244- 263-264.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ245-247- 248-265.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ249-250- 266.

Lake Michigan... None.