textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to moderate lake effect snow continues in the central and eastern UP, while wind gusts as high as 35 mph continue to lead to blowing snow and rapid reductions in visibility. The Winter Weather Advisory over the northern UP been extended to this evening for potentially hazardous travel.

- Additional light lake effect snow totals of around 1-3 inches are expected over the north-central UP tonight, with light totals below an inch elsewhere in the northerly wind snow belts.

- The weather pattern for the back half of the work week through the weekend will be periodic Clipper low pressure systems followed by lake effect snow, accompanied by gusty winds and below normal temperatures.

- Much colder temperatures arrive next week, with subzero overnight lows and wind chills well below zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a tight shortwave dropping over Lake Michigan and into the Lower Peninsula, with larger-scale troughing across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, high-amplitude ridging is apparent over the western CONUS, supporting sprawling surface high pressure over the Northern Plains. In between, the UP remains under blustery northerly flow, and with 850mb temperatures around - 20C, steep lower-level lapse rates and saturation below the inversion, multi-banded lake effect snow persists across the central and eastern UP. Winds, though weaker compared to earlier this morning, are still gusting to as high as 35mph nearer to Superior, which continues to lead to blowing and drifting snow. Lake bands and blowing snow are both contributing to rapid drops in visibility, with KSAW, for example, still dropping to as low as a quarter mile at times. Additional snow totals the rest of today should be rather light as drier midlevel air continues to work in, only peaking at around 1-2in over Marquette and Alger counties. However, with sporadic whiteout conditions still apparent across the area, have opted to continue the Winter Weather Advisory from Baraga county eastward until 00Z. At that point, wind gusts should start to finally drop below 30mph.

Tonight, a subtle embedded vort max looks to drop through, which may help to reinvigorate LES in the western UP, but our best chances for lingering lake effect remain across Marquette and Alger counties. Another 1-3in of fluffy snow is expected just inland of Superior, though will note that HREF shows around a 20-40% chance for higher totals around 4in by Thursday morning in the higher terrain. This may be wishful thinking given the very dry midlevel air apparent in model soundings. Elsewhere, snow totals through tonight remain at or below an inch.

A brief dry period is expected Thursday morning into the early afternoon ahead of the next clipper low, which approaches Thursday evening. The initial wave drops through Thursday evening/night, but then guidance shows this interacting with a secondary wave dropping in early Friday; the result is a midlevel closed low briefly spinning over the Great Lakes Friday, with surface low pressure sliding right over the UP or Lake Superior. As far as sensible weather, weak warm advection ahead of this kicks off a round of light snowfall for much of the UP Thursday evening, quickly followed up by trailing lake effect in the NW wind snow belts into Friday. Lake effect snow persists into the weekend amid chilly N to NW flow. Euro ensembles highlight the highest potential for advisory-level snowfall (3+ inches) over the terrain of Gogebic and Ontonagon counties, as well as Marquette and Baraga counties, Friday and Saturday with the rest of the UP seeing generally less snowfall. By the time this low pushes out Saturday afternoon, the cool air in the wake of the low will keep Saturday's highs only in the teens. With another clipper low forecast to pass through the region later in the weekend, more light-to-moderate lake-enhanced and lake-effect snow will be followed by another shot of cold air, with NBM low temperatures widespread in the negatives Monday and Tuesday mornings. Given the gusty conditions that tend to follow in the wake of clipper lows, wind chills in the negative double digits are a possibility to end the weekend and kick off next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 559 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Lake effect snow continues to dwindle across the terminals through the overnight hours, eventually ending across the area by Thursday morning. As the lake effect snow and winds dwindle, so does that BLSN threat too, allowing the terminals to slowly improve throughout the overnight hours into Thursday. Could see conditions even get to VFR for a few hours across the TAF sites Thursday, before another low begins bringing -SHSN and MVFR conditions back over the western two terminals by the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Cold, blustery northerly flow is keeping in gale-force winds over the eastern half of the lake into the early evening, while to the west, NNW winds are gusting to around 20-25kts. Gales diminish in the eastern half of the lake after sunset, but heavy freezing spray will persist through the first half of the night as winds continue to gust to 20-30 kt within a frigid air mass moving over the lake. Waves will gradually subside from 10-15 feet over the central and eastern lake currently to 6-10 feet this evening and eventually below 4 ft by Thursday morning.

A pair of weak clipper lows is then forecast to move near or over the lake, first between late Thursday night and early Saturday morning and then again between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. Ahead of the first low, southwesterly wind gusts of 25-30 kt are expected Thursday evening with chances of gales 15-30 percent (highest around Isle Royale) and moderate freezing spray. Winds briefly fall near and below 20 kt Friday morning before the northwesterlies in the wake of the low ramp up to 30 kt (with a 30 percent chance of a few gale force gusts). Northwesterly gusts will have a better chance at gales around the Keweenaw Peninsula Sunday night at around 40 percent. Moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected Friday evening through the weekend.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ004>007-085.

Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ243>251-264>267.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ245>251- 265>267.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ221-250.