textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures progressively increase the rest of this week into the weekend.

- Our next best shot for rainfall across the area comes with a cold front moving through on Saturday. There is a non-zero chance for severe weather with the cold front's passage.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Fairly quiet weather continues the rest of the work week as high pressure ridging flattens and heads east towards New England today. With flow aloft becoming more zonal (and the U.P. becoming placed behind the center of the high), expect warm air advection to move into the region, allowing temperatures to warm well above normal the rest of this week into this weekend. Thus, expect highs to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s today to the 80s to lower 90s by this weekend. In addition, the pleasant and drier conditions we've experienced yesterday are projected to give way to more humid sfc conditions by this weekend. Therefore, today and Friday may be the better days to enjoy the outdoors and get any yardwork done when compared to this upcoming weekend.

Our next real shot of precipitation looks to come around Saturday when a cold front descends from the Arrowhead/northwestern Ontario into the region. Currently, the severe weather threat doesn't look too impressive as the western U.P. should be seeing the showers and thunderstorms along the front during the morning hours when diurnal CAPE is lowest; by the time the front gets into the central and eastern U.P. by the afternoon hours, any convection that forms will have lost LLJ support (not to mention that bulk shear throughout the profile will decrease with time). Nevertheless, cannot completely rule out the severe weather threat across the area as the frontal boundary does look fairly robust, particularly during the morning hours; this boundary could easily mechanically force parcels through the boundary layer cap into the free atmosphere. While the medium range model soundings are showing fairly tall, skinny CAPE aloft, there does look to be a couple thousand J/kg available to get convection going near and along the frontal boundary. Therefore, there remains a non-zero chance for severe hail and winds with the cold front's passage on Saturday.

Rain chances return Sunday and Monday via an incoming Clipper shortwave early next week. With 850mb temperatures increasing to above 20C ahead of the Clipper's arrival, the atmosphere is expected to be juiced and primed for convection. Whether we see much (including severe weather) will depend on the track of the Clipper shortwave and its preceding warm front; should the Clipper track north or south of our area, we may avoid much of the convection and see no severe weather (same can be said for the warm front moving in on Sunday); will continue to monitor the track of this shortwave given the potential impacts that it could have over our area.

Moving into the rest of next week, expect high pressure ridging to build over the central CONUS behind the Clipper low. While this could set us up for some cooler/near-normal temperatures and dry weather for next Tuesday, depending on how strong the high pressure is, we could see more Clipper shortwaves move across the area or high pressure ridging keep us dry for the remainder of the week. Regardless, expect temperatures to start climbing to above normal once again by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

High pressure ridging keeps VFR conditions through the 6Z TAF period. SW'rly winds on Thursday increase to around 10 kts at IWD/SAW and 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts at CMX.

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

W to SW winds of 20 to 25 kts early this morning increase up to 25 to 30 kts over the western half of the lake by this afternoon as high pressure flattens and heads east towards New England while a weak shortwave low looks to pass through northern Ontario this evening. While there is a very low (<15%) chance that showers and thunderstorms will be seen over the U.S. portions of Lake Superior late this afternoon through tonight, winds increase from the SW back up to 20 to 25 kts over the western half late tonight through Friday afternoon.

As a cold front approaches the area from the northwest Friday night, expect S to SW winds to increase to 20 to 30 kts over the entire lake ahead of it Friday evening. As the cold front moves through late Friday night through Saturday, expect showers and thunderstorms to move across the lake progressively from west to east; some of the storms could be severe, particularly over the west half where the ingredients for bad weather look best. Behind the cold front, expect the winds to drop down to 20 kts or less.

Light winds of 20 kts or less are projected to remain over Lake Superior for at least the first half of next week. That being said, depending on the track of an incoming Clipper low, we may or may not see additional rain showers and thunderstorms across Lake Superior Sunday through Monday; the severe weather threat with this potential round of convection will also be dependent on the track of this low (as well as the warm front moving over the Upper Midwest preceding it).

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.