textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- High impact winter weather continues through Thanksgiving. An additional 12+ inches of snowfall is still expected over the inland areas of the Keweenaw, Ontonagon, and Gogebic counties as well as the Michigamme Highlands of Baraga and Marquette counties north of US-41 between now and Thursday evening.

- Blizzard Warnings remain in effect for lakeshore adjacent counties of the west and north-central U.P. where high snowfall rates (1+ inch per hour) combined with wind gusts greater than 45 mph will drastically reduce visibility.

- Gales up to 45 kts persist across Lake Superior through Thursday morning in the west and Thursday night in the east. Storm Force winds to 50 kts will continue across east-central Lake Superior through this evening. Significant wave heights build to 15 to 20 ft this evening and persist at 12-18 ft in the eastern half of the lake through Thursday evening.

- Minor lakeshore flooding and beach erosion are possible along the Lake Superior shoreline through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 406 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

An early season winter storm is well underway across Upper Michigan this afternoon as water vapor imagery depicts a vigorous, negatively tilted upper level trough directly overhead with a 993 mb surface low analyzed over the east central U.P. as of 3 PM Wednesday. Webcams and other surface observations currently place the rain/snow line just east of Marquette, with blizzard or near-blizzard conditions being realized along the northern tier of counties from Marquette County westward to the Keweenaw and Ontonogan/Gogebic Counties as heavy snow and strong winds combine to significantly reduce visibilities. Water vapor imagery depicts the TROWAL feature shifting east into Baraga/Marquette Counties along with the axis of greatest 925-850 mb FGEN per latest SPC mesoanalysis. As such, expect 1" per hour snowfall rates to continue over the western half into later this evening, particularly over the higher terrain of Gogebic/Ontonogan to the spine of the Keweenaw and the Michigamme Highlands where strong synoptic scale forcing will be aided by lake and orographic enhancement. Therefore expect another 12-18" in these favored areas through Thanksgiving morning, with comparatively lower amounts of 4-8" along the immediate lakeshore including the Marquette area. Winter weather headlines remain generally on track as north-northwest winds gusting to 35-45 mph continue to produce blizzard conditions across the Lake Superior adjacent counties through Thursday morning. Rain will continue to change over to snow across the eastern counties over the next few hours as the low continues eastward towards the Straits of Mackinac, allowing blizzard conditions to spread into Alger County while snow and blowing snow bring winter storm conditions to the counties inland from Lake Superior.

We will move into the second phase of the event tonight into Thursday as the low moves east into Canada and takes the synoptic scale forcing with it, allowing lake effect snow to become the dominant mechanism going forward. Cold air advection on the back side of the low will drop 850 mb temps to -13 to -15C across the area by Thursday afternoon, corresponding to Delta-Ts approaching 20C as inversion heights go to around 10k ft per model soundings. This will allow for an additional 4-8" of snow to be deposited in northwest winds snowbelts Thursday through Thursday night, especially from Marquette eastward into Alger County. Lake effect then lingers across the east through Friday, but amounts look to be rather minimal as inversion heights come down to 5-7 kft and moisture begins to wane.

Attention quickly turns to another system this weekend as models show reasonable agreement on a shortwave trough and attendant surface low lifting out of the South Plains on Saturday to the vicinity of Lower Michigan by Sunday morning, potentially bringing another round of snow to the U.P. Saturday night into Sunday morning. Potential snow amounts do not look overly impressive as of this writing, but there is potential for parts of the southcentral U.P. that are relatively missing out on the current event to get a bit more snow this weekend. EPS currently depicts a 40-60% probability for at least 4" of snow from Escanaba to Menominee for this event, with closer to a 10-20% chance to exceed 4" for the rest of the U.P. Looking further into next week, the NBM generally depicts lower precipitation chances with temperatures remaining below freezing through the week. Could see some chilly nights early next week as the NBM depicts around a 60% chance to drop below zero in the interior west, while areas closer to the lake more likely end up in the teens to single digits.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

VLIFR to LIFR conditions will persist at all three terminals into Thanksgiving morning. Wing gusts up to 35-45 kt in addition to occasional +SHSN will cause some BLSN-driven visibility restrictions at all sites despite ceilings lifting to the low-end MVFR range. As the surface low pressure lifts to the northeast, lake effect SHSN and gusty NW winds will continue at the end of the TAF period, though some improvement to the IFR/MVFR range may be observed at all sites by early afternoon of Thanksgiving.

MARINE

Issued at 406 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

A strong early season low pressure system located over the east- central U.P. this afternoon continues to drive north to northwesterly Gale to Storm force winds over Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan today, with waves building to 15-20 across much of Lake Superior per the latest observations. Storm force gusts have mostly shifted from the waters north and west of the Keweenaw to the east central part of the lake as the system continues to moves to the east as of mid afternoon. Storm Warnings remain in effect through midnight tonight as 50 kt gusts continue over the offshore waters from Keweenaw Bay to Grand Marais. Gales continue over all waters into Thursday as winds shift more northwesterly in the wake of the low and colder air filtering into the region continues to support 40+ kt gusts over the lakes. Winds will gradually diminish below Gale force over the western half of Lake Superior during the first half of the day on Thursday, with waves subsiding to 6-10 ft in response. However, Gales will persist over the eastern half of the lake through Thursday night with waves remaining in the 12-18 ft range. Wind finally diminish below 20 kt over the western half and to 20-25 kt over the eastern half on Friday as surface high pressure moves over Lake Superior, but waves lingering in the 4-8 ft range will likely warrant small craft headlines for the eastern nearshores through Friday afternoon. Expect quiet conditions across the lake for Saturday, but that lull will be short lives as another system potentially tracks into Lower Michigan Saturday night into Sunday and brings another round of 20- 30 kt northwest winds across Lake Superior late in the weekend. Medium range guidance currently depicts a 10-20% probability for gales across the eastern half of the lake on Sunday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ001>004-009.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ001-005.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for MIZ003.

Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ005.

Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ006.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ007- 013-014-085.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for MIZ007.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for MIZ010-084.

Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ249>251-267.

Gale Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for LSZ162- 240>242.

Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ243-245>247.

Gale Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for LSZ244-264.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ248.

Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LSZ263.

Storm Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for LSZ265-266.

Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for LSZ265-266.

Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for LMZ221-248-250.