textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures climb well above normal today with widespread high in the mid to upper 60s.

- A quick hitting system brings widespread light rain to the UP tonight into early Thursday. Expect fairly minimal amounts in most locations, with the best chance for a wetting rain over the western UP.

- Expect a cooler and drier end to the work week as temperatures settle back into the 50s for Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Early morning RAP analysis and GOES water vapor imagery show a pair of weak disturbances embedded in southwest flow aloft, one over northern Ontario and another over Lower Michigan. Radar reveals spotty shower activity departing the far eastern UP in association with these features, with broken mid level cloud cover and some patchy fog in place across the rest of Upper Michigan. Temperatures will spike well above normal today as continued warm advection sends 850 mb temps to 9 to 11 C over the area this afternoon. The NBM is advertising high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. Feel this might be slightly overdone given the degree of cloud cover in place. Regardless, still expect temperatures to run 15-20 degrees ahead of late October norms this afternoon as high s reach at least the low to mid 60s.

The next system approaches the area tonight as a surface low over the central Plains tracks quickly northeastward to western Lake Superior by later this evening, bringing a quick hitting round of rain to the UP from west to east tonight into early Thursday morning. Rainfall remain in line with previous forecast cycles, giving a roughly 50-75% chance for a wetting rain of a quarter inch across the western third of the UP and closer to a 10-25% chance for the central and eastern UP through Thursday morning. Could see a few rumbles of thunder accompany this activity given a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. SPC even has a marginal risk for severe weather into the far western. Modest instability would seemingly be a significant limiting factor to this potential, but can't completely rule out a few stronger storms given bulk shear values of 40-50 kt by late this evening.

A cold front crosses the UP Thursday morning, with precipitation quickly winding down in the east as surface high pressure builds in from the northern Plains. This will drop highs back down into the 50s in most locations on Thursday afternoon, with breezy west- northwest winds also expected, especially in the Keweenaw and along the Lake Superior shoreline where winds will likely gust to 30+ mph. Cooler and drier weather continues into Friday as surface high pressure moves directly overhead. There is still a high degree of model spread beyond Friday as high pressure departs to the Atlantic this weekend. Guidance hints at a stronger system moving out of the Plains and approaching the Great Lakes during the early part of next week, but with a lot of variation with respect, to track, timing, and intensity.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 202 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR/MVFR cigs and some patchy fog is noted on area observations and satellite imagery early this morning behind a departing shortwave. Southerly flow and continued moisture advection hold similar conditions through the morning hours before breezy southerlies and better mixing help lift low cigs. Another shortwave presses west of Lake Superior tonight, bringing a round of rain and even some thunderstorms from west to east after 00z tonight. While not mentioned in the TAFs at this time, LLWS will be present at all sites tonight given veering wind profiles and 1-2k ft winds gusting between 35-45 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Lake Superior: Winds gradually veer south-southwesterly and diminish below 20 kt today as the latest system departs to the north and east. Southerlies quickly increase again tonight as another low tracks into northern Ontario, bringing about the next round of small craft headlines which appear likely to persist through much of the rest of the week. Winds shift northwesterly behind a cold front on Thursday, gusting to 25-30 kt over the eastern half of the lake aided by cold advection and pressure rises. Gale chances have increase to 50-60% over central and eastern parts of the lake per the NBM, but have opted against any watches for now as HREF and EPS probabilities show significantly lower gale potential. Winds diminish below 20 kt as high pressure builds over the region Thursday night into Friday.

Northern Lake Michigan and northern Bay of Green Bay: Another low passing north of the area tonight increases southerlies to 20-25 kt through Thursday morning, necessitating a round of small craft headlines. Winds shift northwesterly at 10-15 kt behind a passing cold front on Thursday, with lighter winds then expected as high pressure builds in for the end of the week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.