textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Morning showers and drizzle today will give way to clearing skies for the afternoon hours.

- Warmer than normal temperatures are favored by the end of this week. In addition, a more active pattern is expected as we head towards the latter half of May.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Early this morning surface analysis showed low pressure was now over Upper Lower Michigan with northerly flow over the U.P. Upslope flow and lake enhancement was bringing showers and drizzle to the north- central and eastern U.P, as well as parts of the Keweenaw. Temperatures had fallen into the 30s across the north and low 40s in the far south. GOES satellite imagery showed extensive low level cloudiness was over the Upper Great Lakes.

Low pressure will head east, away from the area today as upper level ridging builds into the central U.S. This will bring and end to the rain showers this morning with clearing skies for the afternoon. Northerly wind will remain gusty over the eastern half of the U.P. until the pressure gradient begins to relax late this afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the 50s for most locations and to near 60 closer to the MI/WI border. Tonight will be chilly again as clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s.

Warmer weather arrives on Thursday as upper level ridging moves overhead, producing highs mainly in the 60s across the eastern half and the low 70s in the west. Expect fairly dry conditions characterized by minimum humidity values in the 30s and into the 20s in the interior west, but relatively light winds will help to preclude any significant fire weather concerns. A front will bring another round of rain showers Thursday night into Friday as a low passes well to the north across Ontario. Do not expect a wetting rain out of this system at this time. The weekend has trended a bit drier as the area settles into quasi-zonal flow aloft, with temperatures remaining near or slightly above normal with highs generally in the 60s in the east and 70s in the west through Sunday. More active and wetter weather look to return by early next week as a shortwave trough ejects out of the COlorado Rockies with a broad low pressure system lifting northeast out of the Plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Low stratus continues to blanket the area tonight, with IWD dropping down to IFR. At CMX, with some onshore and upsloping flow, ceilings have dropped further to LIFR. In addition, fog at CMX has brought visibility down below a half mile at times. IFR conditions are expected at SAW as well and couldn't rule out periods of LIFR as upslope mist and drizzle push through. A slow improvement to IFR is expected at CMX and SAW from 09Z onwards, while IWD improves to MVFR. VFR ceilings return by Wednesday afternoon with drier air working in. Otherwise, expect NW winds to turn gusty tonight at CMX and SAW, with gusts to 20-25kts possible. Skies largely clear out and winds fall back into Wednesday evening.

MARINE

Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Southerly gale force gusts will wind down across central portions of Lake Superior this evening as the clipper system continues to track eastward across Upper Michigan. This will bring a shift to northwest winds in the wake of the low tonight into Wednesday. Cold advection will result in gusty winds of 25-30 kt in many locations, but opted to cancel the Gale Watch for Wednesday as probabilities for gale force gusts have dropped to around 25% per both HREF and NBM guidance. Expect benign conditions with winds mainly 15 kt or less from as high pressure moves overhead Wednesday night into Thursday. The next system will bring another round of stringer southerlies to the eastern half of the lake Thursday night into Friday, but gale probabilities are relatively low (25-35%) at this time. Then expect mostly benign conditions to prevail through the weekend ahead of potentially more active weather early next week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.