textproduct: Marquette

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather expected to persist into next week with above normal temperatures.

- Humidity will fall into the 20-25% range over interior locations during the daytime hours through early next week. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today across the interior west and south with the combination of dry air, warm temperatures, and winds gusting to 20 mph.

UPDATE

Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front now draped across Wisconsin southeastward across the Ohio Valley with expansive high pressure over the UP. This equates to continued dry, warm conditions in easterly flow and an elevated fire weather threat today across the west/southwest. Borderline elevated fire weather conditions will be experienced throughout much of the forecast period, but wind gusts up to 20 mph across the west/southwest will be enough to prompt an SPS for today. Will opt to keep the east out of the SPS for now, however, due to slightly lighter wind gusts over that sector. Nonetheless, widespread RH values in the mid to upper 20s percent will prevail across much of the interior U.P. So, those planning to have outdoor fires should pay attention to the conditions and local area burn restrictions. With long range ensembles starting to show a break in the current omega block late next week, though, higher dewpoints and some shower/thunderstorm chances could help counteract the above normal temperatures and fire threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Afternoon RAP analysis has the north-central CONUS under robust ridging, while closed lows spin over the Great Basin and Quebec. At the surface, 1020mb high pressure is centered over Hudson Bay and over the LP/OH, while in between weak troughing extends into the UP from the surface low over southern Quebec. This is not enough to touch off any sensible weather, but with a somewhat tighter pressure gradient and ample mixing under sunny skies, some ~20mph wind gusts are possible over the eastern half of the UP today. This comes as temperatures are soaring into the upper 70s and lower 80s for most of the interior-eastern UP, while even higher temperatures peak in the upper 80s to near 90F in the west. Dewpoints are expected to mix out quite nicely through the rest of the afternoon, generally reaching the low to mid 40s over the interior of the UP. That said, some spots could see dewpoints falling into the 30s. This is resulting in relative humidity falling at least into the mid 20s away from the Great Lakes. Mind those burn restrictions!

Tonight, a cold front north of Lake Superior looks to drop through the area while the surface high to our north expands southward. Winds in turn will be on the increase, gusting up to 20mph especially over the higher terrain while shifting over generally to the east. Winds are expected to slowly decrease into Saturday morning, but where they remain elevated (such as over the south- central UP and the Keweenaw), elevated fire weather conditions will be possible again with another dry day in store. Temperatures Saturday do come in slightly cooler than today, with highs "only" in the lower to mid 70s for most and closer to 80F in the interior- western UP. As dewpoints mix out yet again, RH falls at least to the lower-mid 20% range in the interior UP.

The main hazard concern Sunday through early next week will be a potential for elevated fire weather conditions. The continued northerly and easterly flow will help to keep much of higher dewpoints and moisture from the Gulf shunted to the west of the area. Most afternoons will see humidity drop into the 15-25% range along with the warm temperatures and abundant sunshine. The good news is that strong winds are not expected through the period, so critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated. Those planning to have outdoor fires should pay attention to the conditions and local area burn restrictions.

Ensembles are showing signs that the blocking ridge will break down or at least become much less amplified late next week, resulting in higher dewpoints surging north into the Upper Great Lakes along with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Overall the 8-14 day outlook from the CPC is calling for a good chance for above normal temperatures and equal chances for above/below normal precipitation. Expect the warm temperatures to persist but hopefully some precipitation will work back into the area as the last 30 days have been very dry.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 112 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. High pressure will bring dry weather with a few passing high clouds. A few gusts to 18kt are possible this afternoon at CMX but these should cease around sunset with loss of mixing.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Hazardous marine weather is not expected through early next week. Light winds this afternoon will increase out of the east/northeast tonight into Saturday as a cold front pushes southwest across the lake, with winds up to 25kt, lingering in the west through Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, expect winds to remain below 15kt through Wednesday, except in the west Monday, as funneling of the northeast flow could bring east-northeast winds of 20-25kt.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.