textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog this morning, with visibilities below 1/4 mile in portions of western Minnesota.

- Rapid snowmelt expected today with high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Our snowpack will likely be gone by the end of today or tomorrow at the latest.

- Quiet weather expected throughout the next week, except for a chance for light isolated rain showers along a cold front Sunday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Fog this morning has yet to be as expansive or widespread as forecast soundings were portraying over the previous few forecast cycles, with some patchy dense fog appearing over sections of western Minnesota as of around 3am. Nighttime microphysics RGB shows this well, with a few upper level clouds possibly hindering further expansion this morning. However, high resolution guidance has been favoring expansion of the fog after around 10z (5am CDT) which makes sense given temperatures sitting at their dew points with essentially no wind to speak of. A few spots are technically seeing 'freezing fog' in that temperatures are below 32, however there should be little impact beyond some frosty looking ice glazing elevated metal surfaces. When we reach sunrise, assuming skies remain relatively clear, any lingering freezing fog or fog should burn off quickly given the ever strengthening sun angle as we are only a couple days away from the Spring equinox at which point we will start to gain daylight even more rapidly than before. Temperatures today look to be in the upper 40s in eastern MN/western WI increasing to some low 60s along the Buffalo Ridge in western MN today with partly sunny skies and relatively light winds.

The pattern doesn't change all that much over the next few days, and with the significant snowmelt observed on Wednesday it seems likely that the rest will be gone by the end of today (assuming we see plenty of sun) or tomorrow at the latest. This also means the best WAA in the lower levels within the forecast period on Saturday will not have to deal with snow on the ground hindering temperatures, thus forecast highs have trended higher across all but western Minnesota where they were already in the 70s for Saturday. Our lone chance for precipitation within the period will arrive via a backdoor cold front moving across the area from north to south on Sunday evening, however QPF will be light and any precipitation looks to be isolated showers. Temperatures may cool just enough to squeeze out some snowflakes, however the thermal profile generally does not support accumulations with temperatures once again returning above freezing on Monday, albeit colder than the weekend.

The strong and broad ridge situated over the southwestern US will continue to dominate the weather pattern coming up resulting in continued warm air and above normal temperatures throughout next week. The ridge will also keep another strong cyclone akin to our last snow event from approaching the region until it moves off, which guidance does not hint at within the 7-10 day period coming up.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Areas of dense fog are being observed across the area this morning with a mix of MVFR and intermittent IFR visibility at times, primarily for AXN/RWF/MKT/STC with VFR intermittent MVFR at MSP/RNH/EAU. The fog is not particularly expansive despite temperatures having crashed to dew points overnight, such that the mid-March sun should be enough to burn off any fog within the first few hours of daylight. Afterwards, expect VFR across all sites with a mid level VFR cloud deck moving in after 00z.

KMSP...Kept in some fog this morning but improved the lowest overall visibility within the TEMPO mainly due to lack of confidence in the IFR level visibility reaching the terminal for too long. Another round of fog is possible after 08-10z, however confidence was too low to include for now with a less favorable environment than this morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SE to SW 5-10kts. SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR late. Wind N 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW to S 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.