textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold through the entire week with temperatures bottoming out on Saturday morning where wind chills could approach 40 below.

- Two rounds of snow Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, first round mainly across southern Minnesota and round 2 more widespread across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

High pressure and northwest flow bringing in air from central Canada has kept us cold today with highs barely getting above zero. Thankfully the higher pressure has given some sun today and lighter winds. This has helped to bring wind chills up even as the warming has been limited. Tonight temperatures will cool down and be similar to last night, but with the lighter winds as the yesterday's clipper is well past us, wind chills will not be as low. Wind chills will be about 10 to 15 warmer significantly lowering, but not removing frost bite risk so no Cold Weather Advisory for tonight.

On Tuesday and Wednesday the coldest air looks to take a brief break as the flow aloft shifts slightly to the west. This allows temperature to warm more up to 10 below normal Tuesday and near normal on Wednesday (normal highs in the lower 20s). The cold air fully sets back up on Thursday and the coldest air we have seen so far this year arrives Friday night into Saturday morning. More on that cold air later, as first we have our next snow chances during this warmer period. First there will be a system traveling off to our south. There will be some broad lift along it's northern edge into parts of mainly southern Minnesota, although some lighter snow in central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin is also possible. Moisture and the speed of the system are the main limiting factors for snow amounts. Currently expecting an inch or two of snow with this round, but some forecast soundings do show very deep DGZs and if this can happen higher snow ratios could double that into 3 or 4 inches. Currently sticking with high, but not super high 18:1 to 20:1 ratios, but if we see large dendrites like we saw in Chanhassen yesterday it could be up closer to 35:1. We will be keeping an eye on the evolution of this feature as this approaches to make updates to the forecast. There should be a break Wednesday late morning/afternoon before a clipper moves across with more widespread snow across the region. Similar to most clippers a quick inch or two of snow with increased winds. Not as deep of DGZs in forecast soundings for this round, so more typical ratios are expected. Not expecting winds as high as the past two events, but some blowing snow, especially along the Buffalo Ridge is expected. Nothing looks likely to push towards blizzard conditions.

Behind this snow northwest to north flow sets up and gives us a direct shot of arctic air. Temperatures will crash, bottoming out Saturday morning with lows in the 20s below zero. Air temperature not wind chills in the -20s. As is often the case a high comes with the coldest air. This should help to keep winds on the lighter side. Still expecting wind chills down to around 40 below. As the high moves out on Sunday we will start to slowly recover from this extreme cold back into more normal cold. Below normal temperatures look to stay with us through the end of the month. These are the coldest weeks of the calendar year and they are certainly living up to that this year. Average temperature departures from normal over the next week of 10 to 20 degrees with as much as 30 below normal on the coldest day!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR for at least the first half of the TAF period. MVFR/IFR snow arrives Tuesday afternoon. Mostly clear skies will give way to increasing cloudiness from west to east. Light snow is expected to develop mid to late afternoon for all sites expected for AXN, STC, and RNH where prob30 mentions indicate where forcing isn't as conducive for development. Snowfall rates continue to look on the lighter side (less than 0.5"/hr). Accumulations will be highest near RWF and MKT near 1-2". Westerly winds will shift southwest around sunrise at or below 10kts then shifting south this evening near 5kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns since the previous discussion. IFR snowfall timing remains on track between 2-4z with a chc of MVFR - SHSN for an hour or two on either end of main period of snow. Skies will start out VFR but becoming MVFR by mid-afternoon as the our next system approaches from the west. Light westerly winds shift southwest near 5kts by this afternoon. Once the snow passes, winds will shift back to the west about ~6z timeframe.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/-SN early, then VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.