textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Intermittent flurries today with blustery winds will lead to blowing snow in areas that picked up fresh snowfall yesterday.

- Temperatures will drop quickly this evening and overnight, with dangerous wind chills dropping into the 40s below zero area-wide by early Friday morning. Temperatures don't reach above 0 again until Sunday.

- Quiet and cold through most of next week with only minor snow chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 1043 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

We have went ahead and made a few headline changes this morning based on latest observations & guidance.

Current observations highlight sustained winds 15 to 25 MPH and gusts up to 40 MPH... this prompted us to increase wind speeds & gusts to better match the obs. I used a blend of hi-res guidance & 90th NBM for today into tonight. This change has led to an earlier onset of dangerous cold wind chill temperatures given the stronger wind speeds. This prompted us to bump the start times up for majority of the forecast area outside of southern MN. The first was a change to the Extreme Cold Warning start times. Our central Minnesota counties now begin at 3 PM this afternoon. Our next tier of counties, including the Twin Cities metro, starts at 6 PM this evening. The final tier across portions of southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin starts at 9 PM.

The second change was to transition our Extreme Cold Watch for Friday afternoon through Saturday morning to a Cold Weather Advisory. The biggest change to the forecast has been an uptick in cloud cover from the major Winter Storm across the southern CONUS despite being under the center of the 1048mb sfc high pressure. This means we'll see both light/calm winds & "slightly warmer" surface temperatures in the -10s to low -20s. The lack of wind will mean that our apparent temperatures will be equal to our surface temperatures - that is well below warning criteria. I also adjusted the end time to 06Z Saturday vs 18Z Saturday to better match when we largely fall out of advisory criteria. It will still be frigid & I wouldn't want to go for a morning run Saturday, but it won't be dangerously cold.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

A recurring theme this morning amidst the cold lower atmosphere is some snowflakes being squeezed out of what has been a sporadic train of stratus clouds, with a few sites reporting around 3 mile visibility at the lowest. This is not expected to stop during the day today as any low level cloud cover should be able to produce flurries that result in a dusting at the most, with winds once again increasing to cause blowing snow from what fell yesterday in addition to whatever flurries fall today. Significant visibility reductions are unlikely and this will be more of a nuisance than anything truly impactful, but it may be worth giving yourself an extra few minutes this morning on your drive to work or school. The next stage of our system intensifies later this evening and overnight into tomorrow as strong northerly flow within the troposphere will result in a significant pool of cold arctic air flowing into the region, with surface to 850mb temperatures colder than anything we have seen for at least a few years. By the early morning tomorrow surface temperatures will have dropped into the 20s below zero Fahrenheit which in addition to winds around 10mph out of the northwest will result in wind chills dropping into the 40s below zero for the entire MPX coverage area and much of the surrounding area as well. A strong surface high will ride the northerly flow into the region and lock in the cold air for a couple of days, however weaker winds will result in 'warmer' wind chills generally in the 20s below zero by Friday night into Saturday morning. Right now, we are still carrying the Extreme Cold Warning through midday Friday and an Extreme Cold Watch afterwards as there is still some lingering uncertainty mainly regarding cloud cover and how low air temperatures drop Friday night. Right now, given the weaker winds and chance for cloud cover, it seems most likely that the Watch would be converted to a Cold Weather Advisory into Saturday, but we will leave that up to the day shift assuming better confidence as we get a bit closer.

Beyond the short term cold, the rest of the period will still be much colder than normal, however other forms of sensible weather will largely be absent with a couple of weak snow/flurry chances through the end of next week but no significant weather systems or airmass changes on the horizon. Ensemble guidance generally keeps temperatures in the single digits above zero for highs and single digits below zero for lows all of next week, with a gradual warming pattern to follow as the upper level flow looks to once again introduce a slightly more moderate airmass as opposed to keeping the arctic air locked in place. The GEFS/EPS/CFS all show temperatures returning to normal values by the first week of February, however some of this is due to uncertainty within the guidance as there is still some significant spread. For now, expect a very gradual warming trend especially once we leave January behind us. As for snow chances, The GEFS never reaches above 30-40% membership producing snow on any given day over the next couple of weeks as no major systems look to move through the area. This could change especially as we begin to warm up again, as any kind of thermal gradient would be more conducive to producing some forcing for ascent and possible snow showers.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

What you see now is what you will get for the rest of the afternoon, with this thin, snow filled cu-field remaining in place until between 00z and 04z. Otherwise, no aviation issues the rest of this period, save for the dangerously cold conditions for anyone working outside in this weather.

KMSP...Expect these sporadic snow showers and quick reductions in visibilities through the rest of the afternoon. For those, like the baggage handlers, that have to work outside this afternoon through Friday morning, they will have to battle dangerously cold wind chills.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5kts. SUN...VFR. Wind vrb 5kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Cold Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday for Benton-Douglas-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison- Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Todd. Cold Weather Advisory from noon Friday to midnight CST Friday night for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Friday for Anoka-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-Isanti- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-Renville- Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Swift-Washington-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Friday for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Le Sueur- Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. WI...Cold Weather Advisory from noon Friday to midnight CST Friday night for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce- Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Friday for Barron-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Friday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce.