textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will finally start departing the area tonight. Maximum rainfall totals around 7 inches likely around the city of Le Sueur.

- Pleasant weekend ahead, with comfortable Summer temperatures and mostly sunny skies and dewpoints in the 50s.

- Next chance for storms comes Monday night through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

If I showed you the current water vapor satellite imagery and asked you what date you thought this was from, I would not blame you if you said November. There is a nice baroclinic leaf across the upper MS valley into the western Great Lakes and a dry slot moving across northeast KS into southeast MN. Although today has been a washout and a rather crummy weather day, we haven't heard too many complaints coming out of a 2 week stretch where most places saw less than a quarter of an inch of rain with highs frequently topping out in the 90s. We've seen some impressive rainfall totals today and have seen the gauges to backup the MRMS rainfall estimate bullseye of 6-8" of rain down around St. Peter and Le Sueur. Despite some rather larger rainfall numbers, this rain has come over a period of of 12 hours, not in just 3 or 4 hours, which means impacts from this rainfall (in terms of flooding) have been fairly minimal. Even though this heavy rainfall fell almost entirely within the MN River Basin, rises along the river are expected to remain within the stream banks. No matter how you slice it, this was an incredibly beneficial rain that has come with very few negative impacts.

For the weekend, we will not accept any complaints about the weather! We'll have rising heights and subsidence, which means mostly sunny skies with temepratures near normal and dewpoints retreating into the 50s and 60s. There has been some concern about smoky skies returning, but visible satellite imagery this afternoon looks pretty clean from the Dakotas back across Wyoming and Montana, so even chances for elevated smoke look pretty limited this weekend as well. Get out there and enjoy the outdoors this weekend, we're only 54 days away from the earliest snowfall on record here in the Twin Cities! (September 24, 1985)

We'll start next week with a cold front dropping across the area Monday night through Tuesday morning. Right now, we look to miss- time this front. We'll be getting the leftovers of whatever happens in the Dakotas and northwest MN Monday afternoon late Monday night in central/western MN, while the front should be far enough along Tuesday afternoon to where we'll be too far west to see any storms that form with daytime heating on Tuesday. Behind this front, we'll get another hit of pleasant Canadian air for the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions will continue for the next few hours before this rain producing system moves off to the south and east. Breezy NE'ly winds expected to continue through the rest of this afternoon before diminishing tonight. Cigs are expected to begin improving back to mid-VFR once rain clears mainly between 22-00z (depending on airport location). Will need to watch the potential for fog development across RWF and MKT late tonight. Have introduced 5SM vsby at those locations for now but may have to reduce further based on forecast trends. By tomorrow morning shift north between 5-10kts.

KMSP...Have reduced wind gusts slightly this afternoon given lack of mixing. Nonetheless conditions remain breezy out of the NE with 20- 25kt gusts. the heaviest periods of rain should now be south and east of MSP. Although, MVFR RA/cigs will linger at or near the field for at least another few hours before improving after 23z or so this evening. Overcast skies can be anticipated for much of tonight, with potential for fog development around sunrise. Higher confidence for MVFR fog is across southern MN, therefore kept cigs at SCT and category reductions out of the TAF for now tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind ESE 5 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR RA/TSRA. Wind SW early bcmg NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.