textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold overnight temperatures will lead to frost/freeze concerns throughout the week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be present throughout the week, mainly due to low dew points/relative humidity. Winds will generally be the limiting factor.

- Small chance for showers Thursday, otherwise dry weather expected for the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The post-cold frontal airmass is already starting to show its hand tonight, as temperatures are largely in the mid to upper 30s. Expecting these temperatures to drop a few more degrees by sunrise with west-central MN bottoming out near 30. While these values are below freezing, opted to not do a Freeze Warning tonight as the period below 32F should be only 2-3 hours. Highs today will only reach the mid 40s to mid 50s (warmest in southern MN) while mostly cloudy skies are eventually expected by afternoon with a diurnal cumulus field. RAP forecast soundings suggest these clouds could be taller, perhaps even hinting at the possibility of a stray shower. However, we'll be dealing with subsidence from CAA so precipitation doesn't seem likely. Decent boundary layer mixing will cause some breeziness this afternoon with gusts reach 20-25 MPH. Winds slow this evening while skies clear, allowing for good radiational cooling. This combined with the maxima of the cool airmass settling nearby will allow nearly all of the CWA (except for maybe the Twin Cities heat island) to drop below freezing Tuesday night. Currently have forecast lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The Freeze Watch currently in effect for west-central MN Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will undoubtedly have to be upgraded to a Freeze Warning as this region will be below freezing for several hours. But, will wait for the next forecast cycle before upgrading. Remember to take sensitive plants inside.

Wednesday's weather will be much like Tuesday's, though less breezy, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night are forecast in the lower to mid 30s with central MN into northwest WI having the best chance of dropping below 32F. Temperatures will slow trend upwards Thursday until Saturday as the cool airmass shift east away from us. Meanwhile, ridging will become more pronounced over the western CONUS and try to work into the Northern Plains. Highs in the low to mid 60s return to most of our CWA for Thursday. The rain chance for Thursday that was discussed in earlier AFDs has also trended downward. The shortwave associated with the potential showers has shifted more east into the Great Lakes in later model runs. Instead, elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon, particularly over western to southern MN where minimum RH values are forecast to fall to 20-25%. Winds will be on the lighter side, which along with the green-ness of vegetation will limit fire weather concerns.

Highs are forecast to reach the mid 60s to lower 70s by Saturday as WAA occurs ahead of an approaching shortwave within the northwesterly flow. This shortwave currently has the best chance of bringing rain to at least part of our CWA later Saturday. A cold front will drop southeast with the wave and forecast models paint QPF along and ahead of the front in conjunction with maximum daytime heating. As of now, the most favored area for rain is over IA but the NBM does give the I-90 corridor a chance with PoPs at 20-30%. Temperatures will cool slightly Sunday following the cold front, but long-range ensembles show a general slow trend upwards in warmth as we head through next week. The forecast upper-level pattern shows a lot of promise in transitioning away from the stubborn troughing over the Upper Great Lakes and into more zonal flow towards the end of next week and beyond.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected the entire period. A deck of few to scattered clouds near 7000 feet will continue southeast through central MN and western WI tonight. But, a more prominent diurnal cumulus field around 4000-5000 feet will develop by late Tuesday morning. This cumulus field will last into Tuesday evening before dissipating. 5-10 knot northwesterly winds tonight will increase to 10-15 knots sustained mid-Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Gusts will reach 20-25 knots. Winds slow after sunset.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW to NW at 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd. WI...None.