textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler, more seasonable, temperatures through Friday with warmer above normal temperatures returning this weekend into next week.

- Next chance for widespread rain on Thursday, most likely across southern Minnesota with chance decreasing to the northwest.

- Widespread frost, possible widespread freeze Friday night into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The cooler temperatures will continue today, very similar to yesterday's temperature, with high surface pressure moving in. Thanks to this high pressure rain is not expected today. This will all change as we head into tomorrow. A cut off upper low over the western CONUS will meet a trough digging down from Canada over us on Thursday. This will provide synoptic support for our next best chance for rain. The primary surface features with this look to be associated the the upper level forcing associated with the western CONUS. This keeps the main low well to our south. Therefore, we look to be on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. There is good agreement in this setup across the global models and now that it is getting closer CAMs. Where the variability remains though is how far north the edge of this gets. There is good agreement in southern Minnesota seeing some greater than 0.5 inch amounts as both the LREF and REFS have 50 percent or more of membership showing this. It is farther north up to the Twin Cities and into Eau Claire that there is a difference. The REFS takes this 50 percent of a half inch line up to the Twin Cities and Eau Claire while the LREF does not. RRFS and HRRR have a similar split. So the heavier rain getting up farther north is a possibility, but with mainly the RRFS/REFS family of models as the main support it seems like a upper quartile like solution rather than the most likely one. Looking ahead this is our main chance for any precipitation until mid to late next week.

High pressure will move into the Northern PLain on Friday behind Thursday's rain. This will put us into a region of pretty strong CAA. This will provide a setup for a windy day on Friday and a very cold overnight period Friday into Saturday. Looking into guidance a widespread frost looks very likely. In addition much of guidance has a freeze possible to likely across the region with the exception of the urban core of the Twin Cities metro. After a cold start Saturday will warm up quickly as a ridge is building into the central CONUS. The WAA with this will continue throughout the weekend bringing Saturday highs up into the lower 60s and Sunday's into the mid 60s. A developing trough over the western CONUS next week, while the ridge remains over us will provide for more WAA opportunities Monday to Wednesday. This will allow for highs to break back into the lower 70s next week. So overall a bit of a roller coaster ahead with the coldest air of the season late this week followed by a return to temperatures about 10 degrees above normal the next week. This is typical for the transition seasons in the Upper Midwest where we get alternating periods of warmer and cooler. Eventually the cold will win out, but the warm doesn't go without a fight.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

A broken to overcast MVFR stratus deck will continue to sink south and cover all terminals by the start of the period. Cigs will be near 2000 feet. These clouds are expected to last through this morning before gradual lifting and breaking occurs from south to north Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. VFR should be achieved by all terminals during Wednesday evening with mid to high clouds left. North-northwesterly winds near 5 knots will start the period but they'll gradually turn clockwise to more easterly while slowing by the end of the period.

KMSP...MVFR should last until about 20z before stratus begins to break apart and lift, allowing VFR to prevail. Northeasterly winds near 5 knots are expected from mid-afternoon into early Thursday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind lgt & vrbl bcmg NW 5-10 kts. FRI...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NW 15-20G30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.