textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning continues across parts of western and southern Minnesota this afternoon and evening, avoid burning in these areas.

- Strong northwest winds have prompting areas of blowing dust across western and southern MN, reducing visibilities as low as 1/2 mile.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Today's a classic case of "It would've been nice if it wasn't for the wind." Northwest winds are generally around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to around 45 mph. The strongest winds are across western and southern MN where a Red Flag Warning is in effect through 9pm. Any fires that develop could spread quickly given the strong winds and low relative humidity values. A number of AWOS observations are also reporting reduced visibilities as low as 1/2 mile due to blowing dust across portions of western MN, prompting a Blowing Dust Advisory through 5pm.

Winds will weaken overnight as high pressure spreads across the region. Tomorrow should be a really nice day with mostly sunny skies and lighter winds compared to today. A low pressure system will develop in tandem with an upper level shortwave during the day Thursday. A warm front will lift north through the morning and a few showers and storms could develop within the warm sector. As the cold front sweeps through later in the day, there is higher confidence for a line of showers to move through the area. PWATs over an inch should be enough overcome the layer of dry air near the surface, though RH values in the 30-40 percent range may limit just how much rain we get from this system.

Strong W/NW winds develop again on Friday, with most long range guidance suggest max gusts around 35 to 45 mph. The NBM is also showing afternoon RH values in the teens and low 20s already, meaning it is likely additional fire weather headlines will be needed to end the week.

The weather pattern becomes a bit more unsettled by Sunday, with an area of low pressure developing off the lee of the Rockies and bringing a chance for more widespread rain into Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. The latest NBM has PoPs of 50 to 75 percent, peaking during Sunday evening and WPC QPF is around 0.5 to 1 inch. There is still notable spread when looking at ensembles however, with some members only showing a few hundredths of an inch to others showing over 1.5".

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 550 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Low-end VFR clouds will persist over WI terminals through most of tonight with EAU having the best chance at falling to MVFR from 06-11z. Opted to introduce broken at 3000 feet from stronger support of CAMs and RAP forecast soundings. Skies at EAU will lift to VFR after 11z Wednesday, eventually clearing by late afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR with mostly clear skies expected. Northwesterly winds will still be for the first few hours this evening with gusts to 25-30 knots. But winds will slow to 5-10 knots during tonight. Winds become north- northwesterly late Wednesday morning and increase to near 10 knots (with gusts to 20 knots) through the afternoon. Winds slow again close to Wednesday evening.

KMSP...Northwesterly winds will gust to 25-30 knots until about 04z before slowing to under 10 knots by 07z. Winds will be northerly Wednesday afternoon with gusts nearing 20 knots. Winds slow and become east-southeasterly Wednesday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G30kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW to W 15-20G30kts. SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth- Brown-Chippewa-Faribault-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin- McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sibley- Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Lac Qui Parle-Martin- Nicollet-Redwood-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.