textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread sub-zero temperatures early this morning. Wind chills as cold -20 to -25 across western MN.

- A clipper will bring the next chance of light snow Friday morning. Minor accumulations possible.

- Another system will slide through the region Saturday and looks to bring a better chance of accumulating snow (greatest potential across southern MN).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

These cold temperatures sure could make one say, "Ope" on morning like this. Surface obs reporting sub-zero temperatures areas wide with wind chills ranging from -15 to -25 below zero. However good news is is we start to warm up this morning all the way through Friday.

A clipper which is embedded within parent northwesterly flow will continue to track just off to the north and east of Minnesota's arrowhead region today which will increase southerly return flow later this afternoon into the evening providing 20-25 mph surface wind gusts. Given the low's current track, much of the warm advective precip field should remain confined to Minnesota's arrowhead region. However as we enter tonight, a trailing cold front moves in from the Dakotas which increases the threat of snowfall chances for the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. Light snow is expected to move from west to east across much of southern Minnesota (including the Twin Cities metro) into western Wisconsin by Friday afternoon. Latest run of the NBM continues to advertise low-end QPF amounts from this system. Therefore, continued with the previous shift's approach by using WPC's blend to help nudge up QPF slightly to a few hundredths of an inch. By doing so, this results in another fresh half-inch of snow for most locations come Friday morning. Similar to Wednesday morning's snowfall, the morning commute could be potentially a slippery. PoPs were also increased above 60-70% values which align better with current forecast thinking.

But wait there is more! Saturday morning the aforementioned parent northwest flow ejects yet another shortwave into the northern plains. This time, the wave is progged though the Dakotas into Iowa which will allow for much of the southern half of Minnesota to receive additional snowfall. The results from guidance continue to favor the north/south "camp" results as mentioned in the previous discussion. As of now, the latest snowfall accumulation map advertises the potential of 2-3 inches across south-central MN into northern Iowa. One thing to monitor though is if northern results within guidance come to reality, snowfall totals could be increase to a few inches or perhaps more south of the I-94 corridor.

After this low pressure vacates, Canadian high pressure follows in tow funneling in colder air. Forecast temperatures will return to the double to single digits below zero for lows on Sunday and Monday morning. By early next week, if you missed the previous two opportunities to see snow, you'll get another chance here. The pattern aloft remains active and will eject another system to impact Minnesota and Wisconsin. Through warm advection and prior to precip arrival, temperatures are expected to return to the upper 20 to low 30s. Given the warmer sfc environment and potentially warm air aloft, this could bring concerns for mixed/freezing p-types. Still lots can change between now and then but something to keep in mind as we proceed through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR with SKC conditions at all sites as cold clear high pressure settles across the area. Only wrinkle is some fine crystals hanging in the frigid air making for diminished visibility at MSP prior to sunrise. Have included a TEMPO group at the start at MSP to account. Otherwise, high clouds will slowly fill in from the west in advance of a weak clipper due to drift through the Upper Midwest on Friday. Mid-level ceilings likely during the overnight hours tonight, with -SN arriving close to 12z Friday morning. Best chances prior to 12z look to be near I-94, thus the mention at MSP and the WI TAFs. Omitted its mention at AXN-STC in this cycle as chances are just low enough but a mention is likely come the 04/18z TAFs. Winds will run S to SW with speeds around 10kt.

KMSP...With MVFR HZ being reported at initialization, have opted to include a TEMPO group at the start. Otherwise, will look for -SN to develop by 14z, though there are some indications it may be as easy as 10z. Once it does move in, conditions will likely drop right to IFR levels. Rates will be light and overall accumulation for Friday is expected to be under 1 inch.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts. SUN...MVFR/-SN early. Wind NE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.