textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 70s and 80s Today.

- Mid April warm up continues through work week.

- Potential for severe storms across south central Minnesota/western Wisconsin Monday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Regional radar imagery highlights scattered thunderstorms across the Upper Mississippi valley region drifting into the northern Great Lakes. Our attention will turn to the cluster of thunderstorms that has developed over northern Iowa early this morning. These storms will move through S MN and into W WI around daybreak. Small hail will be the primary concern with these in addition to lightning. Today's forecast is an interesting one given the scenario. Our surface low along the Canadian border will be the primary driver for today's weather. The main forecast challenge for today is tied to the timing of the dry slot and it's impact on this afternoon's high temperatures. This morning's temperatures will start off in the 60s with dew point values in the upper 50s and lower 60s across S MN. A dry line currently over the Dakotas will surge east by late morning. The timing of the eastward progression varies, but Td values will drop from the 50s and 60s to 30s post dry line across SW MN mid- afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest we will see mixing up to 8 to 10kft this afternoon and that should be able to support some gusty winds across the area. Sporadic gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with sustained winds 20-25 mph. For sky cover, we'll see fog and low stratus linger through mid to late morning before clearing associated with the dry slot surges east. Western WI may not see much clearing that should limit today's high temps in the 70s, which nobody will complain about for mid-April. If we're able to clear out quicker, highs will likely end on the warmer side of guidance. Regardless, most S MN locations should see 80 degrees this afternoon. Precipitation chances wrap up by mid morning for our MN counties and early afternoon for our W WI counties. A stretch of dry weather is then forecast through Monday morning before the next round of precipitation arrives Monday afternoon. SPC Day 1 update removed the Marginal risk over W WI and left us with a general thunder. This makes sense as the better "risk" is to our north.

Speaking of Monday, the severe potential increases Monday afternoon. The day 2 SPC severe weather outlook continues the Slight risk (2/5) across much of our forecast area with all severe weather hazards possible. The stalled boundary will lift north on Monday as a warm front. This will return moisture back into the region with Td's back into the 50s and 60s by the afternoon. The front will again stall across S MN between I-90 and the Twin Cities metro. This boundary will likely be the focus point for convective initiation Monday afternoon & evening. Moderate instability will build into the warm sector with 2000+j/kg of CAPE. The combination of instability, steep lapse rates, and abundant shear suggests that a robust severe weather threat is possible if convective initiation can occur. The exact latitude of the warm front will dictate the primary convective corridor. Current hi-res guidance is much further north with the front and thunderstorms, something we've seen all Winter with snowfall forecasts, but we like that they initiate several supercells that grow upscale and congeal into an MCS that tracks east Monday evening. I would take these solutions and paste them over the warm front location via the ECMWF/AIFS across S MN. CSU ML guidance lines up similarly to the SPC SWO, adding further support to the conditional severe weather set up. Any convection that does form will congeal and exit to our east by Monday night. Heavy rain will be possible in addition to severe weather threats. We'll dry out Monday night into Tuesday before yet another round of precipitation arrives.

On Tuesday, our surface low ejects out of Nebraska and tracks through the Corn Belt. This should place the severe weather threat to our south/east, but yield us scattered thunderstorms and showers. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. We will dry out on Wednesday with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny and winds light enough to head out and enjoy the warm temperatures. Another system will begin to influence our weather on Thursday. Broad warm air advection will allow temperatures to warm back into the upper 70s. Guidance varies, but there is enough support for another active stretch Friday into next weekend. Colder temperatures arrive Saturday with highs back in the 40s. Precipitation types will be an issue as some ensemble members support snow. We'll have to keep an eye on that, but for now try to enjoy the warm up!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Low clouds have just about cleared all our Minnesota terminals while KRNH and KEAU are bouncing between SCT/BKN025. That will continue for a couple more hours before everyone is solidly VFR. Cloud cover through the rest of this afternoon into this evening will range from clear skies to just some thin high clouds. Southwest winds will continue to gust 30-40kts through the remainder of the afternoon before turning more west/northwesterly and diminishing.

Patchy fog develops overnight with a window of MVFR/IFR conditions possible early Monday morning. Winds will generally be easterly to southeasterly tomorrow morning, but a lot of that will depend on how far northward our warm front makes it. This will also set the stage for -TSRA chances just outside of this forecast period.

KMSP...Southwesterly winds continue through 23-00z, but gusts should gradually come down before then to around 25-30kts. West to northwest winds are expected overnight with that chance for some fog early tomorrow morning. As mentioned above, some uncertainty remains on convection for tomorrow, but have introduced an early afternoon PROB30 for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Wind NW 5-10kts. WED...MVFR chc -SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind W bcmg S in the afternoon 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.