textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of wintry systems bring chances for rain and snow tonight, Tuesday into Wednesday, and Thursday into Friday.

- A stronger winter storm may impact the region this weekend.

- The mild pattern is coming to end with temperatures trending closer to normal beginning Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

It's a sunnier day than yesterday with similar temperatures north of I-94, even following the passage of the cold front this morning. Cloud cover had a big impact on temperatures. There is a rather large temperature contrast across MN today with upper teens in the northwest and low to mid 60s in the southeast corner. The colder air will filter southeast tonight and highs Tuesday will take a 10 degree hit from today, marking the beginning of a cooler, stormier period through mid March.

A baroclinic zone will remain stretched out from the northern Rockies to central Plains and southern Great Lakes for the remainder of the period. It begins with a band of snow expected to develop across central MN into northern WI tonight. Good model consistency has taken shape and PoPs have increased. Frontogenetic forcing and 1/2 inch pwats should lead to widespread snow totals around an inch, but localized areas may see a couple if steadier rates persist. It will be a short period though, so the ceiling of snow totals will remain limited.

As a long wave trough digs into the northern Plains, a powerful upper level jet streak of 155-165 kts is expected to develop south of Hudson Bay. The Upper Midwest will be in the favorable right entrance region of the jet with a ribbon of vorticity also swinging through. A band of precipitation will develop from southwest MN to northern WI late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. A rain/snow mix is expected at the onset, but will transition to snow Tuesday evening as temperatures drop. A tenth to a quarter inch of QPF should lead to an inch or two of accumulation. Surface temperatures will remain marginal in the lower 30s, however, which will be a limiting factor for much more than that. It's possible most accumulation will be confined to grassy areas and elevated surfaces unless rates are more impressive than currently expected.

The next one in line comes Thursday into early Friday morning. Consistency remains poorer with this wave. Generally expecting it to track east across MN and WI with accumulating snow from northern MN to northern WI. Heftier accumulations are possible and we may see a stripe of 3 to 5 inches in that corridor, tapering off to a trace along I-94. The wave will be potent, and stronger cold air advection on the backside will lead to northwest winds gusting to 35 mph.

The baroclinic zone sinks a little farther south for early in the weekend, setting the stage for an even stronger wave progressing east across the northern CONUS Saturday night and Sunday. There remains plenty of questions about the track, how strong and negatively tilted the wave will become, and how much moisture wraps around in the cold conveyor belt. The spread remains large, although that is not unexpected for day 6. Interestingly, AI guidance members have become better clustered and trended south, while deterministic solutions remain similar, although weaker, from yesterday. So far AI has been the more reliable choice this winter and we'll see if that holds true again. This one has a higher ceiling with accumulations than really anything we've seen this season, so certainly worth watching.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Clouds have started to fill in across central Minnesota this evening. Further north, some snow associated with a weak wave is making it to the ground. As this disturbance moves across northern Minnesota tonight, our two northernmost terminals may see a couple hours of light snow overnight. Felt more comfortable keeping the snow mention as a PROB30 for STC, as there is still uncertainty regarding how far south the snow will spread. What's more certain for AXN and STC are MVFR cigs moving in sometime after 06z and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

Elsewhere, northerly winds will eventually turn easterly by morning at around 10-15kts. Cigs don't begin to fall until mid/late afternoon ahead of another more impressive wave Tuesday evening. Added a PROB30 snow mention for a handful of sites, but the next TAF issuance should cover more of the onset of the precip.

KMSP...A couple hi-res models want to put some light rain/snow at MSP during the early afternoon, but overall, did not feel chances were high enough to warrant a mention for now. However, by Tuesday evening snow is looking more likely, so did add a PROB30. Winds will be north/northeast through the period at around 10-12kts with some gusts near 20kts possible during the morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR early. Chc AM -SN. Wind NW 10-15 kts. THU...MVFR. Chc PM -RASN. Wind S 10-15G25 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.