textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this evening for western MN with the primary threat of severe winds.

- Conditional threat of storms Thursday afternoon/evening is dependent on Wednesday night storms. Large hail and severe winds would be the main risks.

- Storms may linger into Friday, though confidence on overall coverage is low and depends on how Wednesday to Thursday plays out.

- Temperatures remain above normal this week, and warm this weekend, with mid to upper 80s on Sunday, lasting into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

It's a quiet start to the day with temperatures generally around 55 to 65 degrees and light winds out of the southeast. Some mid- high level clouds are streaming across the region, but really the main show is looming off to our west across the Dakotas. A dying complex of storms sits along a surface boundary, which will begin to take shape today as an upper level shortwave kicks out of the Canadian Rockies. A surface low will deepen and track eastward just north of the US/Canada border. Both hi-res and global ensemble guidance support several rounds of storms across the Upper Midwest, starting Wednesday evening and lasting through Friday. Isolated instances of severe weather and heavy rainfall will be the main players, so let's break it down.

Tonight...Storms will redevelop over the Dakotas during the afternoon, initially posing a tornado threat with any discrete storms that form. A transition to a linear mode is expected as the front moves east towards western Minnesota during the evening, at which point the main concern will become a wind threat. The LLJ will increase to around 35-40kts, and a zone of increased instability will build ahead of a developing MCS. It is likely that we see this area of storms ride the nose of the unstable airmass and dive south. The overall trend in the CAMs supports this idea, with both the HRRR and RRFS suggesting a decaying MCS moves into western MN and cuts southeast towards the MN/IA state line. Isolated to scattered 58+ mph winds are most likely in extreme western MN before the MCS has enough time to weaken. At the same time, some showers and weaker storms may persist along the boundary north of the MCS. Models like the NAMnest and deterministic Euro would say that any eastward moving storms may choke off before even reaching a line from St Cloud to Mankato. We continue to lean on the side of the HRRR and RRFS, though have taken into account this scenario where rain ends up splitting before it reaches eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. As a result, PoPs have decreased Thursday morning to be capped around 20-40%.

Thursday through Friday...The position of the front will play a large role for our storm threat the next two days. By Thursday afternoon, we should start to see it push east through Minnesota and become more WSW to ENE orientated (i.e. more flattened out). There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with Thursday's risk for severe storms (and storms in general) as it will be heavily impacted by the overnight precipitation. It won't be until tomorrow night for when we will have higher confidence in the exact setup. Regardless, we'll expect to have a few hours of daytime heating which would allow for destabilization in tandem with deep layer shear around 35-50kts. Any storms that develop along that boundary would have the capability of producing large hail and severe winds through the evening. One wild card that may through a wrench in all of that is the development convection to the south across Iowa and Nebraska. Both the 00z runs of the RRFS and NAMnest struggle to develop any storms over Minnesota and western Wisconsin Thursday. The 24 hour QPF of mostly 0.00" is almost shocking to see given the way our forecast has looked up to this point, but these models depict our moisture flow being cutoff and favoring Iowa for the greatest QPF. Models like the 06z HRRR still show plenty of storms across our region, though it relies on weaker convection to the south. There are many moving parts to Thursday's forecast, but the conditional marginal risk tied to the SPC day 2 outlook is reasonable given the spread of hi-res solutions.

Now if Thursday is uncertain, double that for Friday. Depending on how Thursday plays out, we could have scattered storms ongoing during the morning across the Dakotas and western Minnesota before the front finally exits southeast. Any redevelopment will likely favor areas east of a line stretching from Albert Lea, MN up towards Eau Claire, WI. Favorable shear and moderate instability would still provide an environment for strong to severe storms, and this is highlighted by the 0730z SPC day 3 outlook. Again, the RRFS and NAMnest models would say that we may stay mostly dry on Friday with convection being tied to the synoptic front south and east of us.

Saturday into next week...Ridging will begin to build in over the northern Plains and spread east. This should make for a mostly dry and warmer weekend. Any threat for storms would most likely come in the afternoon/early evening and on an isolated basis. Early next week, a surge of moisture is expected to lift north ahead of an upper level wave embedded in the southwest flow. This will bring additional thunderstorm chances for next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR into this evening with only passing high clouds. As a frontal boundary slowly arrives from the Dakotas tonight, chances for showers/thunderstorms steadily increases, mainly after 00z Thu. Have introduced -RA mention during the early morning hours for the MN TAFs with the main window for precip in the roughly 06z-10z timeframe, but could be an hour or two earlier or later depending on the site. Confidence is too low to add in CB/TS mention at any site so have omitted its mention but it is still possible given the convective trends (see our main AFD and SPC SWODY1 discussions). Winds to remain generally southerly throughout, with speeds becoming breezy/gusty this afternoon into this evening.

KMSP...VFR into this evening, then with chances for precip increasing this evening, have opted to include a TEMPO at this point for showers in the early morning hours. Confidence too low to introduce CB/TS but certainly cannot rule out the potential.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming NW. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming NE. SUN...VFR. Wind Wind SE 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.