textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers continue through tonight, particularly for portions of western/central Minnesota. More widespread rainfall arrives late Sunday through Monday.

- Cooler and drier weather Tuesday onward with some near or below freezing temperatures possible through Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Today through Sunday will continue to be spit-and-sputtery with areas of scattered showers moving southwest to northeast across southern MN into northwest WI. Prolonged west-southwesterly upper- level flow stemming from a closed upper low over Saskatchewan will allow for multiple weak impulses to pass through the Upper Midwest. Southwestern to western MN will be favored for showers through this afternoon before a band of showers focuses more into central to northeastern MN this evening through tonight. 0.25-0.5" of rain is possible through tonight where this band sets up. Showers may persist over western MN through Sunday morning, though confidence is lower given the lack of synoptic lift. Cloud cover will remain over western and central MN through the afternoon, which will limit highs to the lower to mid 50s. These could underachieve, depending if rain occurs. However, from southern MN into western WI, breaks in the cloud cover should allow for warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon. Currently, we have forecast highs in the mid to upper 60s for our southern and eastern CWA. Lower 70s could result if sunnier skies occur.

Rain chances increase from west to east during Sunday night as a shortwave ejects into the Central Plains and travels northeast. Southerly flow will occur in advance of this shortwave causing a strong push of moisture into the Upper Midwest Sunday night into Monday. Rain will grow in coverage during this time with showers and scattered thunderstorms moving generally northward within the southerly conveyor belt as a surface cyclone matures. Rain looks to continue for at least a good portion of our CWA into Monday afternoon, though breaks in the precip and clouds look possible across southern MN as the warm front and surface low lift north. Depending on how much heating and destabilization occurs Monday afternoon, a second round of thunderstorms may occur over southern MN ahead of the sweeping cold front. Bulk wind shear values will range from 35-45 knots so if enough instability is realized, one or two stronger storms may be possible Monday afternoon, particularly across southeastern MN. We'll have to see how this event evolves but a severe storm does occur, main hazards would be large hail and strong winds. The cyclone will lift to the northeast into the Upper Great Lakes during Monday night, dragging any trailing rain with it by Tuesday morning. As for rainfall amounts, this system looks to be a good widespread soaker with generally 1-1.5" of rain possible. There is lesser confidence of areal continuity for these rainfall amounts from southern to southeastern MN (where the breaks in the rain are possible). But, localized areas within this region could potentially see more rainfall (up to 2") if one or more thunderstorms can move through.

Tuesday onward, the rest of the forecast looks relatively quiet and dry aside from a slight chance of rain Wednesday with a passing shortwave. Persistent northwest flow will follow after Wednesday as troughing sets up over the Great Lakes. This will cause temperatures to remain slightly below normal (highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s) through the rest of the week. Frost/freeze headlines may actually come into play, especially towards Friday morning as cooler air funnels into the region. Overnight lows towards the end of the week will flirt with the freezing mark, particularly over central MN and northwestern WI.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Isolated to scattered showers this evening across western Minnesota. We have seen some lower ceilings with these showers, but most have remained VFR. This evening will see more of a RWF to STC axis for the rain showers, but in the early morning it will shift to more of a MKT to MSP axis before coming to an end. Then tomorrow evening into Monday will be the main event for rain with more widespread rain with MVFR ceilings likely throughout. Periods of IFR will be possible in the more intense showers. Winds will remain light and fairly variable until the bigger rain event gets closer on Sunday. At this point we will see some gusts around 20 knots near the end of this TAF period.

KMSP...Mostly VFR with some MVFR as rain showers occur. There are two windows for rain showers: Sunday morning and Sunday evening/night. Light rain showers and more isolated in nature on Sunday morning. Sunday evening will last into Monday with a more widespread rain with a higher confidence in a category reduction to MVFR with IFR possible in the heavier showers. No thunderstorm chances in this period, but some could be possible as we get into Monday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 10-15G25 kts. TUE...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.