textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A few thunderstorms possible in southern Minnesota from late afternoon to evening. Most storms stay to the southeast in northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin.

- Isolated showers possible Wednesday, becoming more likely in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Wednesday night.

- Another larger system arrives Friday and lingers into Saturday. Initial thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with cooler temperatures on the western side of the system bringing a chance for a wintry mix of rain/snow into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A broad line of weak showers that have mostly resulted in virga is stretched across south-central Minnesota from Marshall through the northern Metro, with pockets of clearing amidst what is otherwise mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows some agitated cumulus clouds along a warm front from central to northeastern Iowa which is expected to be the focus for another round of severe weather later today. Unlike yesterday, the warm front is not going to make it to Minnesota except for perhaps the far southeastern corner, with our environment less favorable due to northerly winds and weak subsidence stemming from the backing wind profile. The only way we see a few storms this far north would be storms forming in north-central Iowa and progressing northwards, rather than forming in our area and moving out. HRRR forecast soundings from Albert Lea around 21z closest to the warm front (for our area) show meager few hundreds of J/KG SBCAPE with a lack of a defined mixed layer, with low level shear in the single digits. Much like yesterday, we do have some upper level shear thanks to increasing winds aloft, however this is in direct competition with the northerly cooling/drying winds in the lower levels. Lapse rates are less favorable than yesterday coinciding with the weaker instability, on the order of around 7 degrees/km from 850-500mb. Overall, the environment is significantly less favorable for our area than yesterday thanks to the position of the warm front and competing forcings over us, resulting in a much lower chance for both strength and frequency of storms. Patchy dense fog is once again possible overnight, however should be less in terms of both coverage and peak intensity compared to this morning thanks to slightly stronger surface winds and stronger radiational cooling needed to produce the truly dense fog, which seems less likely given persistent lower level cloud cover overnight.

Weak rain chances linger in southern Minnesota tomorrow into Thursday stemming from a quick moving shortwave trough sliding west to east across the area, however lack of a surface response and therefore limited moisture advection means we likely miss any showers for the majority of the area. Thursday looks to be the best overall day for outdoor activities this week with temperatures in the 70s and partly to mostly sunny skies ahead of our next system incoming on Friday. Speaking of which, an upper level trough spanning most of the western American Rockies will spin up a surface low over Colorado by early Friday morning, ejecting into the plains before tracking towards Iowa and southern Minnesota. There are still some pretty significant wobbles possible within the track, however the current consensus would bring the broad surface low directly towards our CWA, resulting in lower level warm air and moisture advection northwards Friday morning. This will enhance instability and chances for thunderstorms, and we could end up seeing some severe weather given the strong forcing from the synoptic scale features as long as they end up phasing with the surface low. The lingering uncertainty is due to the track of the low as well as how broad it ends up being, with a broader low resulting in weaker forcing and an overall less favorable environment, so we will be watching the next few days of model runs closely to see how things evolve over time. The best chance for storms looks to be along and just ahead of the surface low, timing wise mid morning to evening Friday. Most guidance attempts to eject the surface low towards northern Lake Superior, which would then wrap cooler central Canadian air back towards the region and could even introduce a wintry mix of rain/snow as temperatures rapidly cool behind the cold front Friday night into Saturday. Surface temperatures overnight look to drop to near freezing but rebound back into at least the 40s on Saturday/Sunday, meaning any wintry mix would be melting during the day and does not look to stick. Based off the longer range outlook, this would look to be our last flakes of the season with temperatures near normal through the end of the month on the GEFS/EPS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are in place this evening, with light and variable winds. Another round of fog/low stratus is still expected, though confidence has decreased for how far south and west the densest fog will spread. The sites with the best chance of observing a period of IFR or worse will be KSTC, KRNH, and KEAU. Areas near KMKT, KMSP, and KAXN will be on edge of the densest fog and may have more localized IFR conditions. Winds will settle in out of the northeast after sunrise, generally at or below 5 kts.

KMSP...Some parts of the Twin Cities metro may drop as low as 1SM, though the widespread dense fog has trended further east into Wisconsin. As such, we have removed the tempo for lower vis and cigs. If KMSP does drop lower than 3SM or BKN006, it would be during the 10z-14z window tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR ceilings. Chance IFR/-RASN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.