textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm Thursday, with potential for critical fire weather conditions across western MN on Thursday afternoon. - A very strong cold front will push east through the area on Friday. Thunderstorms will develop on the front near I-35 late Friday afternoon. A few storms could be severe, mainly east of I-35.

- Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Today through Thursday: Early afternoon satellite imagery with surface obs showed mostly sunny skies across the region, with light surface winds. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across. Radar showed a few elevated returns across southern Minnesota, and there is a small chance (20 percent) for rain this afternoon and evening. However, the majority of the rain and storms will stay well to the south across I-90. On Thursday, expect another day of warm temperatures as a low pressure system approaches from the west and brings an increase in southerly winds. This will lead to low humidity and breezy conditions across western Minnesota, so we did issue a Fire Weather watch from 11am to 7pm.

Friday through Saturday: Not much has changed from the previous discussion. A strong cold front will move through the region on Friday. Ahead of the front, expect temperatures in the 70s and southwest winds, along with a chance for thunderstorms. A few of these storms should be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The storms should start as discrete cells, with hail as the primary threat, and then quickly grow upscale into a line with wind becoming the primary threat. The risk for tornadoes is a distant third. These storms will develop around the lunch hour near I-35, and then move eastward rather quickly into Wisconsin. Behind the front, expect breezy northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph, and falling temperatures.

As the overall system organizes, precipitation will wrap around from the northwest, with rain changing over to snow. As of now, this looks to be closer to the international border, but could have some light rain with a few snow flakes on Saturday. Highs on Saturday will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Sunday through Tuesday: Dry conditions expected Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday will remain cool with surface high pressure overhead, and temperatures near 50. On Monday the high will depart to the east, and southerly winds will increase bringing warmer temperatures with highs the 60s to near 70.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Maintained TEMPO from 09-13z Thursday for developing fog at EAU with visibilities periodically dropping from MVFR to 1sm (LIFR). Fog will burn off by mid-morning. Considered adding a TEMPO at RNH for mist/fog Thursday morning but confidence is currently too low. Otherwise, VFR is expected is expected the entire period at the remainder of the terminals. Southerly winds persist across western MN tonight and increase in speed for Thursday afternoon. Gusts will near 25 knots for AXN and RWF during the afternoon hours Thursday. Farther east, light/variable winds will turn southerly during the morning and increase in speed. Gusts will reach 20 knots in central and eastern MN during the afternoon.

KMSP...Opted to not mention any possibility for fog Thursday morning as it should remain east in WI. South-southeasterly winds will gust to near 20 knots after mid-Thursday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Stevens-Swift- Yellow Medicine. WI...None.