textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple chances of light snow will be possible today through Saturday. Minor accumulations will be possible with each system.

- Very cold temperatures settle in by this weekend with wind chills approaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria Friday night and Saturday night.

- Active pattern and cold temperatures ease next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The low pressure associated with the strong clipper (often referred to as an angry clipper in the office!) was over Milwaukee at 3am. This storm very much followed the southern end of the model envelop, with the surface low eventually passing between the Twin Cities and Mankato. This follows a trend we've seen going back to when this active pattern started before Thanksgiving, reality has followed the southern end of the model envelope, which has been held down pretty strong every time by the ECMWF-AIFS. This tendency for the southern solution to win out is something to keep in mind when looking ahead to the clippers for Thursday and Saturday...

At 3am, the deformation band associated with the angry clipper was working through the Twin Cities and heading to southeast MN. This band of snow will be out of the MPX area by sunrise. However, over eastern NoDak, there's a ribbon of vorticity on the edge of a jet streak that has been producing light snow all night (with 1 1/2sm to 4sm visibilities). CAMs are in good agreement on this area of forcing and light snow moving east through the morning, with another 1/2 inch or so of snow looking likely over our MN CWA from late this morning into the early afternoon. After this, we do get into a dry period that lasts through Wednesday night as a surface high moves through.

Thursday will bring us our next clipper in the northwest flow. As we have often seen in this pattern, we have a good deal of spread between northern and southern solutions in the ensemble members, but given past performance, we are leaning heavily into the southern solutions (ECMWF-AIFS again). Following the southern solutions, the swath of heaviest snow with this wave (2-5") looks to be heading from southeast SoDak to southeast Iowa, with some lighter snow amounts getting up to about the MN River in southwest MN. We did switch out NBM QPF Thursday with WPC QPF, as the NBM looks way too hot with QPF across our entire MN CWA as it gets led astray once again my northern ensemble members, from the GEFS in particular this time. Based on where the southern solutions have the snow for Thursday, we're still a little high with the snow forecast for Thursday across our entire MN portion of the CWA, but we were able to at least peal 0.5" to 1" of snow off what the NBM had by going with WPC QPF.

As we have seen since Thanksgiving, our breaks in precip our short- lived, with the arrival of the arctic front leading to another widespread 0.5" of snow along it late Thursday night through Friday morning. The airmass coming behind this front will be the coldest we've see so far this winter, with h85 temps dropping down to around -20C this weekend. Friday afternoon, temperatures will be crashing on northwest winds gusting to between 30 and 40 mph. Temperatures will fall into the single digits and teens below zero Saturday morning, with highs Saturday only getting up to a few degrees on either side of zero. The coldest morning will be Sunday, when high pressure, light winds, clear skies, and a deep and fresh snow pack will send temperatures on a free fall. Lows in the teens and 20s below zero look likely Sunday morning. As for extreme cold headlines, as a reminder our criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory is -25F or colder from the Twin Cities east and south and -30F west and north of the Twin Cities (this goes up to -35F and -40F for an Extreme Cold Warning). Our lows Saturday morning have actually trended warmer a couple of degree over the past 24 hours, with wind chills Saturday morning currently forecast settle in right at or just warmer than our advisory criteria. We'll have less wind, but colder temperatures Sunday morning, so this looks to be our coldest morning in terms of apparent temperatures as well, with Cold Advisories looking all but certain for at least this morning right now. At the moment, Extreme Cold Warning criteria is looking a bit out of reach (as are record lows!). Besides the cold, the caboose in the clipper train finally comes through on Saturday. Given how cold and dry we will be in the low levels, it's hard to see much, if any snow getting as far north as MN on Saturday, with another two to four maybe more snow coming for Iowa.

Next week, as the trough shifts east, upper ridging will overspread the central CONUS. This will replace our arctic airmass this weekend with one coming off the Pacific and central Rockies next week. WAA will be in full swing on Sunday, but it will be hard to warm much on Sunday when you're starting the day off down around -20F. Given the snow pack in place, we won't be making any runs at 50 or anything like that next week, but for Tuesday through Thursday, we should see most of our area with highs pushing into the mid 30s. Besides the warmer weather, your shovels and snow blowers will get a break as well, with our next potential for precipitation after Saturday not coming until Thursday next week and it may be warm enough for this system where the predominate p-type we get is just plain rain. So for those growing tired of the cold and snow globe weather, hope is just around the corner!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 504 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Light snow is still lingering over portions of the area, mainly southeastern MN, but much of yesterday's system has wrapped up by this morning. Did put a TEMPO at MKT until 14Z to cover for periods of -SN and reduced visibilities before it exits southeast. Cigs will remain MVFR through most of this afternoon. There is a chance for -SN over MN, particularly west central MN, this morning into early afternoon. Also added TEMPOs at AXN and STC where -SN looks most certain while most remaining terminals received PROB30s. Uncertainty increases this evening onward with the evolution of cloud cover. AXN looks more likely to see development of IFR cigs overnight while much of MN will either be MVFR/VFR as clouds begin to scatter. A similar scenario for WI with RNH having a greater chance of IFR cigs early Thursday morning while EAU should see clearer skies. Northwesterly winds will gust to 20-30 knots this morning but speeds will slowly decrease to under 5 knots after this evening. Variable/light winds are expected early Thursday morning.

KMSP...Added PROB30 from 16-19Z for -SN and visibilities down to 2sm. Thinking MVFR cigs (with bases near 1500 feet) remain through Wednesday night but uncertainty does exist with a few models dropping cigs to IFR and other clearing clouds out enough for VFR. Opted to stay persistent with MVFR overnight. MVFR looks likely late Thursday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Pepin- Pierce.