textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into tomorrow morning.

- Next round of rain arrives on Wednesday.

- Generally cooler than normal temperatures this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The driver of our weather pattern this week will be an upper low over the Hudson Bay in Canada. Shortwaves will moves around this larger low and into the Upper Midwest today and again on Wednesday. Today could well be our warmest day of the week as we get a short break from northwest flow aloft ahead the arrival of the shortwave. The brief period of WAA will not make today a hot day, but it should be near normal (highs in the upper 70s). This slight change in pattern will not have much of an impact on moisture though and that will continue to be a challenge to overcome for rain chances today. The lift from the shortwave and enough mid level moisture will lead to rain formation. There is some elevated instability such that some isolated storms could form. The overall instability profile in forecast soundings is not impressive though, so strong storms are unlikely. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will start to form in central Minnesota this afternoon slowly spreading southeast into the evening and possibly linger in western Wisconsin into tomorrow morning before moving out. We will have a short break on Tuesday during the day between the two waves. The next shortwave moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday. This entire setup looks like a warm season version of a classic winter clipper. The low track is the same setup and the forecast soundings look very similar, just about 30 to 50 degrees warmer. There remains widespread ensemble agreement in this system overall, however like many winter clippers the path will be important. Current mean ensemble tracks favor the low traveling right over southern Minnesota. So this track keeps all of the area well within the rainfall region of this clipper like system. Best chances for rain within the LREF (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) favors along and south of I-94 due to the mean low track among these members. Looking towards thunderstorm chances for this system there is little instability. As mentioned earlier this is a winter like saturated through the profile with only limited and very skinny CAPE present in forecast soundings. However ahead of the low where southerly surface winds will be present there will be ample shear and a nicely curved hodograph. If instability can over-perform expectations this could be something to watch. This does not appear likely though as only the 95th percentile in the LREF shows any significant instability.

Past Wednesday there is a much greater spread among the global ensembles (LREF). The GEFS members in general take a cooler approach and the ENS and GEPS a warmer one. As far as rain is concerned there is some clustering on Friday associated with an expected frontal passage, but past that QPF remains quite scattered with no significant agreement. This does not mean dry though as most members show activity in the weekend period just with different timing and QPF amounts. Safe to say the forecast remains undetermined for this period. This is why the NBM forecast for this period has low PoPs over a wide range of time. As we get closer this should come into better agreement within the LREF and NBM membership.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR condition overnight with clear skies to high VFR clouds. Light and variable winds will pick up from the west today gusting up to around 20 knots ahead of our rain chances. We will see isolated to scattered showers across central Minnesota this afternoon slowly spreading south into the evening. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but confidence in thunderstorms at any one TAF site was not high enough for inclusion in the TAF yet. As the rain moves through periods of MVFR are expected.

KMSP...The main impact for this period continues to be the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the late evening/early overnight. Mainly MVFR impacts expected as these rain chances come through. As we get a better idea of timing in future TAFs TEMPO will likely be added. As it is expected to be scattered in nature prevailing rain does not look likely.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.