textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Highly variable day-to-day temperatures through the upcoming weekend.

- Light snow likely north of I-94 tonight into Tuesday, along with chance of a light snow/rain/freezing rain mix near and south of I-94. Accumulations up to 1".

- Chance for additional light snow south of I-94 Wednesday evening-night, then mainly dry through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows north-south oriented high pressure aligned nearly atop the length of the Mississippi River, while an area of low pressure becomes more organized over southern Alberta province. To the east, the powerful low off the New England coast continues to hammer the northeastern CONUS with dangerous winter weather conditions. Aloft, the northeast low is within a highly amplified trough over the eastern seaboard while a deep ridge sits over the Rockies, with continued northwest flow aloft for the Upper Midwest.

Tranquil but cold conditions will continue across the WFO MPX coverage area into this evening, with highs this afternoon only from the upper teens to mid 20s. Clouds will be on the increase tonight ahead of the surface low arriving from Alberta tomorrow as it straddles the international border, tracking its way to northern Minnesota by daybreak Tuesday. The western ridge will flatten just enough to keep the center of the low on the US side of the border, with it moving into the Great Lakes by sunset Tuesday. This will mean our coverage area will remain in the relatively warmer side of the system. Thus, highs on Tuesday will be noticeably higher, ranging from the mid-upper 30s north of the Minnesota River and into the lower 40s closer to the IA border. However, although the bulk of the precipitation with this system will fall over northern MN, sufficient lift and moisture will be available in central-southern MN into western WI to produce up to 0.10" liquid, highest north of I- 94. Along those lines, the coldest air will also be found north of I- 94, so precip will come as light snow (up to 1") north of I-94. Near and south of I-94, not only do PoPs decrease due to being farther away from the parent low but also more temperature profile uncertainty and lesser moisture is evident. Model soundings indicate enough drying and loss of ice aloft to introduce freezing rain (or, more like freezing drizzle with such low QPFs) for a 1-2 hr period mid-to-late Tuesday morning. Only a glaze or so of icing is possible as the low pressure center and its southward-sagging fronts sweep across the coverage area during the first part of the day Tuesday.

Precipitation looks to come to an end altogether by mid-Tuesday afternoon, followed by quick clearing skies and the arrival of another arctic-airmass high pressure. The eastern CONUS trough will re-engage while general ridging holds out west, thus sharper northwest flow aloft. This surface/aloft synoptic scenario will reinforce colder air over the Upper Midwest, making for lows early Wednesday morning generally 5-15 degrees followed by highs again in the upper teens to mid 20s. This cold surge will last for merely a day as the arctic high pressure shifts into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley while modified western ridging slides eastward ahead of a mainly dry frontal system coming Thursday. A small chance for snow showers/light snow is possible for the southern portion of our coverage area Wednesday evening-night, again with any accumulations under 1".

Highs on Thursday will rebound to the mid 30s to mid 40s. The warming trend continues through Friday with highs surging into the mid 40s to mid 50s, possibly upper 50s in SW MN. However, a sharp drop in temperatures will come for the weekend behind the exiting dry frontal system. Another round of arctic high pressure will arrive and keep its influence over the Upper Midwest for the weekend into early next week. Highs over the weekend will only run in the teens and 20s again. Small chances for precip return in the NBM guidance for early next week but no substantial systems appear evident for early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Overnight, a weak storm system will track across the International Border. This will bring south to southwest winds and a chance for some wintry precipitation late Tuesday morning. For that reason, we maintained the PROB30 -SN at KSTC, KMSP, KRNH, and KEAU. There is a chance some PL or ZR may mix in with the snow, but likelihood in occurrence is low. Winds will remain breezy and become northwest behind the precipitation late Tuesday morning. Gusts to 30kts are not out of the question, particularly at AXN, RWF, and STC.

KMSP... Main concerns are the potential for mix precipitation Tuesday morning. Maintained PROB30 for -SN, but lessened the window to three hours after the morning push. Sleet or freezing rain could mix in, but likelihood is low.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, decreasing chance of MVFR/-SN late. Wind NW 5-15kts. THU...MVFR/VFR, small chance -SN early. Wind SE to SW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW bcmg NW at 10G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.