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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold temperatures continue through Sunday night. The Cold Weather Advisory was extended through mid morning Saturday north of I-94 and across western MN.

- Remaining quiet with below normal temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A very cold airmass remains in place as a 1052 mb high pressure center builds southeast into the northern Plains. The high will weaken as it settles overhead tonight, then continue weakening as it slides east to the Great Lakes Saturday. Winds will become light and variable or calm this evening in response to the high overhead, which will eliminate the wind chill risk. However, increasing return flow late tonight and early Saturday morning across western MN will bring hazardous wind chills for a time before temperatures rise through the negative single digits late morning. Cloud cover remains the largest question mark as to how well we can radiate tonight and where our lows will bottom out. A few arctic stratocu fields have developed late this morning, but generally models are too aggressive with cloud cover. Forecast soundings do show the potential for shallow low level CU through the afternoon, then a shallow layer of mid level clouds moving in this evening. Given the already cold start this afternoon, it won't be much of a trek down to reach the -20s again north of I-94. If mostly clear skies prevail, the favorable positioning of the high may allow temps to reach the -30s in parts of central MN and northwest WI. The Cold Weather Advisory was extended through mid morning Saturday north of I-94 due to air temperatures of -25 to -30. It was also extended across western MN where increasing winds late tonight will drop wind chills back to advisory levels into mid morning. Return flow will bring highs back to within a few degrees of zero Saturday and Sunday, then another high pressure will build south into the northern Plains. Lows in the teens and 20s below zero are likely this weekend. Luckily, winds will be lighter with this shot reinforcing cold air, so wind chills won't be as dangerously low as last night.

Next week, northwest flow will continue with occasional bouts of colder air. Some flurries are possible at times, but the atmosphere should be too dry for any accumulating snow. A moderating trend should arrive next weekend as a milder Pacific airmass engulfs North America.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR through the period with light and variable winds overnight. Expect high clouds to continue making their way in from the west. AXN could see some sct low VFR cloud development in the afternoon as a mid-level wave skirts over north-central MN. Winds will transition to southerly tomorrow morning by 12z then become SE'ly after 00z. Wind speeds expected to remain below 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for Benton- Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Lac Qui Parle- Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Redwood-Stevens-Swift-Todd- Yellow Medicine. Cold Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Anoka- Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet- Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns- Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright. WI...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Cold Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Pepin- Pierce.


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