textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and a few breezy days are expected through this weekend, spawning fire weather concerns. - Next widespread chance for precip doesn't arrive until early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Temperatures look more like late August/early September across the region today. Breezy southwest winds have started to turn to the northwest behind a front which is draped across central Minnesota early this afternoon. For the most part, Tds are still into the 50s ahead of the front , but across southwestern Minnesota where temperatures have made it into the mid 80s, we're seeing some RH values fall below 30%. Fire weather will be the main weather concern through this weekend given the warm and dry forecast. Tomorrow will be a bit cooler than today, but it does look like RH values fall into the 30s area wide. Did nudge down Tds a little, but they will likely need to be adjusted further down which could bring those readings into the near critical fire weather territory. Additionally, northwest winds increase again by tomorrow afternoon with gusts of around 25 MPH.

Thursday will be the coolest day of the period, but still running a few degrees above where we should be for early October. Moisture returns Friday with southerly flow kicking in. There's a non-zero chance that far southern Minnesota may see some showers early Friday ahead of a warm front that will continue to push north through the weekend. Saturday's temperatures will likely be warmer than today with highs once again reaching into the mid 80s. This will be another fire weather day to watch given this and winds gusting to 30 to 40 MPH. Thankfully, we'll have a bit more moisture, but will need to monitor the potential for warmer temperatures than what's currently in there. Another thing to consider is what may happen with a tropical system in the Gulf during this time period and what that would do to our moisture return. The forecast from Sunday onward becomes more uncertain with the timing of a trough in the Pacific Northwest. PoPs and QPF have decreased a bit from 24 hours ago, but this still looks to be our best (and likely only) chance for precip during the forecast period. Temperatures will return to the 50s and 60s following this system, but a few more warm days beyond this period are not out of the question.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Only concern for this TAF period is a couple of wind shifts. KAXN has already started the turn to the northwest with the other Minnesota terminals following through this evening with a FROPA. Further to the southeast, southwest winds are still gusting to around 20kts, but speeds will decrease by this evening. Light northwest winds are expected for all overnight tonight before a shift back to the west for tomorrow afternoon. Speeds will start to tick up by the end of the forecast period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts becoming SE. SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 15-20G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.