textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Following today's warm temperatures, a cold front will bring more seasonable highs for the first day of October through this weekend.

- Other than some isolated showers Saturday, much of the forecast period looks dry.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Clouds cleared quickly across western and central Minnesota this morning, which allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s before noon. Temperatures are now sitting in the upper 70s to low 80s just before 2pm. Further south and east, clouds and fog have been slower to clear out, but there should still be plenty of time for widespread highs in the mid to upper 70s for this last day of September. A more seasonable airmass will arrive following a frontal passage late tonight/early tomorrow. Most notably, Tds will tumble from the 60s today down into the upper 30s/40s. Northwest flow and CAA will remain in place into Friday before the surface high slides east and we see a slight bump in temperatures and moisture Saturday. A shortwave will move along the International Border late in the day and may lead to a few isolated showers for mainly northern and central Minnesota.

The second half of the weekend, temperatures return to the low to mid 60s with ample sunshine. Clear skies and high pressure overhead will make for what will likely be the chilliest night of the season so far for most. Monday morning lows are currently forecast to be in the low 40s for western and southern Minnesota with mid 30s across central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Following up on the climate stats from the previous discussion, we typically drop below 50 degrees for first time in the Twin Cities in late August. We have yet to do that this year, but it looks like Friday morning will change that. With a current forecast of 42 degrees Monday morning, this would be the coldest morning in the Twin Cities since May 20th (the forecasts for STC and EAU also point to it being the coldest morning since mid May). This cool down will be brief with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s returning by the end of the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The main impacts for the 06z period will be related to fog and mist primarily for STC/MSP/RNH/EAU. There will be intermittent impacts up to LIFR, with prevailing conditions expected to vary between IFR/MVFR. After 12z fog should be begin to clear, at which point we should return to VFR by 14-15z for all locations and remain VFR for the remainder of the period. Winds will increase to 10-12G20kts from 300-350after 12z, with gusts dropping off after 00z.

KMSP...While we have yet to drop below 6sm, periods of BR are expected to bring us to MVFR at times through 12z, after which points we should be VFR for the rest of the period. The denser fog will remain north/east of the terminal.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts. SUN...VFR Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.