textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rain continues through the first half of the day across southwestern and southern Minnesota. Rainfall swath of 2-4", along with localized rainfall amounts in excess of 4"+ may result in flooding.

- Pleasant weekend ahead, with comfortable Summer temperatures and mostly sunny (at times hazy/smoky) skies.

- Isolated to scattered storm chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

HEAVY RAIN TODAY...It's quite the soggy start to Friday across west- central and southern MN, where MPX radar imagery captures an expansive shield of moderate to heavy rainfall. Driving the precipitation is a stacked upper-wave that is progged to mature into a closed upper-low as it digs southeast from the Dakotas into Iowa today. At the surface, cyclogenesis is underway across eastern South Dakota and guidance depicts the low sliding to the southeast through central Iowa by midday. Such an evolution places the western & southwestern portions of MN in a zone favored for a one-two punch of warm advective precipitation (as we're seeing early this morning) and a heavy deformation band of rainfall that will develop on the northern side of the mid- level low and prolong the heavy rain threat through the morning. Combine the synoptic forcing with an environment primed for efficient rainfall owing to skinny CAPE, a very deep warm cloud layer, rich PWATs (2+"), and slow storm motions and the pieces are in place for a flood threat. The overall theme in the 00z CAM guidance supports the going forecast, with a wide swath of 2-4" of rain along and near the MN River and a narrow, more localized swath of amounts exceeding 4" -- it's very possible a few locations measure upwards of 6" for a storm total! With this in mind, our eyes are on the flash flood indicators early this morning. 2 AM MRMS data illustrates that locations across Chippewa County, MN have likely already observed 3-4" with rain ongoing. Our Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all counties south of a Swift to Meeker line. The majority of the Watch will expire at noon, however we've followed timing trends in the CAMs and opted to extend the Watch until 4 PM for the southern two tiers of counties along I-90. As noted in WPC MPD #901, dry antecedent soils should work to mitigate the overall flood threat, however the long duration nature of the moderate to at times heavy rain certainly bears watching.

For those in the Twin Cities Metro, the forecast remains largely unchanged, as a sharp cut-off in rainfall amounts is expected from the southwest portion of the Metro (Carver/Scott) to the northeast (Anoka/Washington). We've observed a slight northerly shift in some of the latest CAM guidance (the last several runs of the HRRR in particular). Should these solutions come to fruition, it's possible that more of the Metro could observe amounts closer to or exceeding an inch, but again these chances would favor communities to the south and west of the immediate Twin Cities Metro. Rain will end from northwest to southeast as the surface low departs towards eastern Iowa this afternoon. One other note, we have boosted winds across southern MN this afternoon as near term guidance is more aggressive featuring 35-40 mph gusts in response to the strengthening system.

NICE WEEKEND WEATHER...By Saturday, the well-defined closed upper- low is forecast to take residence over the Ohio Valley. Ridging will expand east across the northern CONUS, which supports a quiet weekend forecast for the Upper Midwest. Forecast highs are in the upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday & Sunday, with the anticipation of mostly sunny skies overhead. It's possible that the skies may appear hazy at times due to wildfire smoke present in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, however impactful surface smoke is not anticipated at this time.

STORM CHANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK...A progressive shortwave supported by an active Pacific jet is forecast to traverse through central Canada early next week. The majority of the upper-level forcing associated with this feature will slide north of the Upper Midwest, however a trailing cold front is forecast to move across the Dakotas into MN later Monday into Tuesday. Early indications are that moisture return ahead of the front may be lacking, so it's not surprising to see NBM only feature 40-60 PoPs across western MN that lower to 20-30 PoPs in eastern MN late Monday night. Of note, several of the AI severe weather forecast tools highlight northwestern MN (where NBM's PoPs are higher) for a chance of stronger storms, which makes sense given proximity to the upper-forcing. We'll keep an eye on this through the weekend. The front is forecast to sag south Tuesday and may force new convection across southern MN in the afternoon. Drier weather returns by way of high pressure for the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Steady rain continues this morning and has advanced a little further north than the previous forecast with KRNH reporting 5sm and rain. Also seeing few more IFR/LIFR obs out there than models were suggesting. Touched things up, but overall, no major changes to the previous TAF set. Rain with the occasional embedded thunderstorm will continue through early afternoon with gusty easterly winds. Winds decrease and turn northerly with VFR conditions returning this evening.

KMSP...Thunderstorms are approaching from the southwest and should continue for the next hour or two. Biggest change was to add the thunder mention and IFR conditions for a couple hours this morning. Wind gusts of 25-30kts are possible through early this afternoon. Precip should come to an end by this evening, but thinking the bulk of the impacts will be this morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind ESE 5 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for Brown-Chippewa-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Redwood- Renville-Sibley-Swift-Yellow Medicine. Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Blue Earth- Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. WI...None.