textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Slow moving thunderstorms may pose a risk for flooding across southwestern Minnesota through this evening.

- Southeasterly winds are expected to become gusty tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. This will also bring our next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures are on the horizon with rain chances returning late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue across southwestern Minnesota early this afternoon as a shortwave comes across the top of the central CONUS ridge. Areas along and south of the Minnesota River from roughly Granite Falls to Mankato have received 1-2" of rain thanks to nearly stationary storms that continue to bubble up without really going anywhere. The bulk of the heaviest rain has remained just outside of the CWA into far southwestern Minnesota and northern Iowa. A Flood Watch has been issued for our two southwestern-most counties in collaboration with the Sioux Falls and Des Moines offices. Elsewhere over the past hour or so, there's been an uptick in shower and thunderstorms further north towards I-94. These also seem pretty pulse-y much like the ones to the south and are expected to diminish by this evening. Storms are not expected to make it much further east than they are currently with ample dry air in the low/mid levels. This is apparent when looking at the difference in PWATS from eastern Minnesota (1.3"ish) to western Minnesota (1.7 to 1.9"ish). CAMs have struggled with the evolution of the ongoing storms most of the day due to the chaotic storm motion (or lack of), but the general consensus is that precip remains to the west of a line from roughly St. Cloud to Mankato.

Following today's showers and storms, a deepening low across the Dakotas will move into southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan late Monday. In response, southeast winds are expected to become breezy tomorrow with gusts around 30 MPH ahead of a cold front. This front is expected to sweep across Minnesota Monday evening into Tuesday, bringing our next chance for showers and storms. Northern Minnesota will likely see the bulk of the (much needed) QPF, but central Minnesota down through the Twin Cities into southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin may still end up with around an inch of rain by the time the system moves out Tuesday. Wednesday looks to be the coolest day of the period with highs in the low to mid 70s under strong CAA. This will likely make for another breezy day with northwest winds gusting to around 30 MPH. The remainder of the work week looks mainly dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Looking ahead to next weekend, a pattern shift is likely on the way with the arrival of a series of troughs. This will lead to an uptick in rain chances and more seasonable temperatures for mid September. Beyond next weekend, there seems to be agreement among ensembles that highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s will become more and more common as the fall equinox approaches.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Introduced precipitation at the back end of the MN TAFs as multiple models agree on having precipitation develop in the Dakotas overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, reaching into western-central MN by around 06z then to near the MN/WI border by 12z Tuesday morning. Until that points, multiple cloud layers will continue through most of the day as the area remains between a west-to-east frontal boundary straddling the international border and a farther west NW-to-SE front over the Northern-Central Plains. Will initially look for -RA with the precip but the precip shield could take th form of multiple MCS's, making potentially for an earlier introduction of TSRA to the TAF in later issuances. Winds will remain SE throughout this duration (outside of TSRA which could make for erratic directions). Speeds will become breezy/gusty from late morning on, reaching speeds of around 15G25kts by late afternoon.

KMSP...Upper level clouds, particularly with high ceilings, will be prevalent through much of this TAF duration. VFR conditions expected through this afternoon, then conditions will deteriorate late tonight through Tuesday morning with the combination of incoming precipitation along with breezy SE to possibly S winds. MVFR conditions are very much possible by the Tuesday morning push, along with TS near the Twin Cities.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.