textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- More smoke possible across far eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin into Monday.

- Next chance for strong to severe storms late Sunday night and Monday afternoon.

- Turning cooler with near or slightly below normal temperatures by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Much drier air has worked in today with dew points in the 50s and 60s. Warm temperatures remain, however, with 80s and a few locations approaching 90. Smoke is pushing back to the west. Ladysmith has dropped down to 5 mile vis, with 1-2 mile vis across northeast WI. It will continue progressing west tonight. The 18Z HRRR has shifted quite a bit to the east with the western extent of the smoke and now confines it to the Wisconsin counties through Sunday, but anywhere east of I-35 is under threat for another batch of smoke.

Northwest flow will prevail Sunday and a trough will begin to approach Sunday night. Low level moisture will increase and pwats may exceed 2 inches by late Sunday night. A disturbance will kick off convection across ND and parts of SD Sunday evening. As the trough deepens, the mid level jet will strengthen to 50+ kts resulting in more than enough bulk shear. Steeper lapse rates will work east across the Plains overnight. An increasing LLJ will feed the cluster/MCS as it continues southeast. CAMs are supportive of this MCS tracking across central and southern Minnesota late Sunday night and early Monday morning. PoPs have been increased due to increasing confidence. The main severe risk is damaging wind. The degree of this threat will depend on instability. Instability is lacking per GFS, but ample with the NAM. If an organized MCS with a cold pool can develop, the wind threat may increase. For now, there is a level 1 of 5 risk for our MN counties.

The morning activity should clear to the southeast early enough to allow recovery to occur throughout the day. Temperatures will likely reach the low 90s one more day before a meaningful cool down midweek. The overnight convection does cast some doubt as to whether we can fire round two Monday afternoon. Many models develop convection late afternoon or evening southeast of the CWA, across central/southern WI and IA. This is a common result any time a cold pool tracks through the night before. However, there will be ample instability and shear in place ahead of the cold front in the afternoon so we can't totally discount robust development.

Cooler and less humid air returns by midweek. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s or 60s will bring much needed relief from the recent heat. There are signs of the ridge returning by next weekend which may bring another round of heat toward the end of the month.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Fairly quiet 18z TAF period, with light northerly winds and mostly clear skies. The main concern will be with the arrival of wildfire smoke at RNH/EAU later this evening. Have followed trends in latest hi-res guidance to bring smoke into RNH ~7z and EAU as early as 2z. MVFR visibility is possible due to smoke overnight into Sunday morning at EAU. Otherwise, FEW-SCT Cu and occasional afternoon gusts will diminish this evening across eastern MN/western WI. Winds turn southerly on Sunday.

KMSP...We'll keep an eye on visibility observations in WI, but the latest trends in hi-res guidance keep the highest concentration of incoming wildfire smoke and visibility reductions to the east of the terminal.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc AM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW to NW 10-15G25 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.