textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy today with a mostly dry cold frontal passage expected. A stray shower or two is possible but precipitation chances are below 20%.

- Cooler temperatures mid-week behind the front with frost/freeze concerns each morning until a late week warm up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Temperatures have remained relatively warm overnight as steady southwesterly winds and incoming cloud cover have limited radiational cooling. In fact, some areas in north-central MN are still in the lower 60s at 1:30 AM! Lows across our area will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s by sunrise. Southwesterly winds increase this morning gusting to 20-25 MPH as a strong LLJ moves overhead. This LLJ is associated with a strong mid-level wave over Ontario, the latter of which will move well to our northeast. However, a strong, trailing cold front (currently located over northern MN) will push through our CWA during the first half of today. The aforementioned cloud cover, as well as some scattered showers, over the northern half of MN is in response to this cold front. This activity will also travel southeast through our CWA, creating quite a few clouds today. A stray shower or two may be possible for central MN and into WI. But, the low-levels of our atmosphere are very dry (evidenced by KMPX's 00z ROAB). Once the front passes, winds will switch to northwesterly and increase in speed with gusts of 30-35 MPH across MN through this afternoon. High temperatures today will be dependent on how much heating can occur prior to the frontal passage. Central MN is only forecast to reach the mid to upper 50s while areas south and east should see mid to upper 60s.

Winds will gradually slow this evening while as the cooler airmass settles over the Upper Midwest. This airmass will remain with us through mid-week as northwesterly flow persists causing temperatures to be below normal. Frost/freeze concerns return tonight through Wednesday night as overnight lows will fall to at least the mid 30s. Tuesday night currently looks like the coldest where nearly all of our area (excluding maybe the Twin Cities heat island) is forecast to drop below 32F. Daytime highs will only reach the upper 40s to mid 50s and winds could be breezy during the day if efficient boundary layer mixing occurs. Thus, more of early April spring-time weather than early May.

Forecast models do show temperatures slowly trending upwards the latter half of this week as upper-level ridging over the western CONUS tries to push east. Though, general northwesterly upper-level flow will continue to persist through at least this weekend. This means that precipitation chances should remain low through the end of the period given the incoming dry, continental air from Canada. Thursday looks like the only exception as forecast models show a compact shortwave embedded within the larger upper-level low over the Hudson Bay swing south into the Upper Midwest. Currently, PoPs are 20-30% over eastern MN and WI Thursday afternoon; but PoPs will probably need to be increased given the good agreement of QPF occurring between the GEFS and EPS members. Not expecting any significant precipitation. Just one of those high PoP-low QPF type of events. Highs return to the 60s next weekend with a few shots at 70s possible early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected the entire period. Mid to high clouds will move overhead from the northwest during tonight. Then, a broken diurnal cumulus field near 8000 feet should develop by early Monday afternoon and last through the evening before cigs lift again. Southwesterly winds will increase during tonight with gusts approaching 20 knots. West-southwesterly LLWS of 45-50 knots is expected at all terminals late tonight through about sunrise as a LLJ moves overhead. A cold front sweeps through during Monday morning turning winds to northwesterly for the remainder of the period. Winds will increase after the front, reaching 15-20 knots sustained with gusts of 25-30 knots. Winds slow to 5-10 knots during Monday evening.

KMSP...Maintained west-southwesterly LLWS of 50 knots from 10-13z Monday. Northwesterly winds will reach 15-20 knots with gusts of 25-30 knots during Monday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.