textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms are expected to develop over eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon. These will move into western and central MN this evening, with some strong to severe storms being possible before they dissipate overnight.

- There are Slight Risks for both severe weather and excessive rainfall Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Uncertainty remains with what latitude a west to east oriented band of heavy rain will fall Tuesday night.

- Heat and humidity start building again over the weekend, with potential for a heat wave increasing for Sunday into the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Regional visible satellite imagery highlights a bubbly Cu field across the region and a frontal boundary upstream over the Dakotas. Temperatures have warmed well into the 80s with surface dew point temperatures in upper 60s and lower 70s. This has made a warm, humid environment typical of Summer. Moderate instability has built into the Upper Midwest given the plume of moisture in place which will result in thunderstorm development across the frontal boundary over the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. This front will sag south over the next 12 hours or so bringing a decaying MCS across our western and central Minnesota counties. The SPC extended their slight and marginal risks further east to include portions of central Minnesota that were previously in general thunder. The environment in place is favorable from a wind/hail threat perspective, but timing will become an issue as storms press further southeast toward southern/eastern Minnesota and W WI. The loss of daytime heating should limit the threat of surface-based convection, but two scenarios could play out. 1) a decaying MCS moves into Douglas/Todd/Morrison/Stevens counties just before sunset and isolated damaging wind reports come in. 2) A cold pool is able to develop and a stronger MCS is able to move into those aforementioned C MN counties with a continued severe wind threat that continues deeper into MPX cwa. The lack of low level jet support doesn't favor continued development as the bow dives towards S MN and the Twin Cities.

Timing places it in are area between 00z and 02z this evening. Forecast soundings across the area show a favorable environment that loses instability quickly after the loss of daytime heating. Wind shear profiles are better to our northwest as they're able to tap into enhanced winds tied to the shortwave across southern Canada. Models agree that the line of storms will gradually weaken and likely dissipate before reaching the Twin Cities and points south/east overnight. These areas do not have a severe risk today or tonight, but later on Tuesday. Heavy rain is also a concern tied to the high PW values along and ahead of the boundary. Guidance doesn't support training or stalling storms so high end rain chances appear low.

Tuesday and Wednesday offer a similar set up. The frontal boundary will be draped across the region. There is some uncertainty with it's placement, but it should be somewhere over the MPX forecast area... likely the northern half. Strengthening jet level winds will support broad ascent Tuesday afternoon while a LLJ develops Tuesday evening. This interaction with the frontal boundary will be key to how widespread severe risk is and who gets what. We'll have a better handle of where after tonight's MCS, but the current favorite would be across west central/SW MN. Strong winds and large hail are the primary hazards for Day 2's Slight risk. Timing will once again be an issue as the convection moves into the area around sunset/after loss of daytime heating again. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to move along the boundary with with a Slight ERO, too. Training storms can lead to locally higher amounts of rain and a flash flood risk.

Wednesday will likely have lingering convection that'll taint the environment but redevelopment is likely once again. Severe threat is low but non zero and a Marginal risk is in place. The remainder of the period looks pleasant as an upper level ridge builds into the mid-mississippi valley region for the weekend. Model guidance brings a 600dm 500mb ridge centered over S MN this weekend. That'll lead to hot and humid conditions and push the storm track northward through Canada or "up and over" the ridge. The possibility of extreme heat exists, but it's too far out to have much confidence.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Thunderstorms are developing along a front across northwestern Minnesota this evening. This line of storms is expected to continue to push southeastward this evening, but should gradually weaken as the front stalls out. There's some uncertainty about thunderstorm development across southwestern Minnesota, so have left KRWF/KMKT out of any TSRA mention. Main change for this forecast was to tighten up timing for TSRA and to convert KAXN and KSTC from PROB30s to TEMPOs. Some MVFR cigs are expected early tomorrow morning for central Minnesota. Winds are expected to be 10kts or less through the period. More showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon (particularly for KAXN/KSTC), but confidence is too low to include in this TAF set.

KMSP...Models are suggesting that the line of storms mentioned above may make it to KMSP after all. Have introduced TSRA between 06-09z. There may be a chance for thunderstorms late tomorrow, but uncertainty is too high at the moment.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NE 5kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.