textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog possible through daybreak across eastern MN and western WI.

- Beautiful weekend weather: Mostly sunny skies, comfortable Summer temperatures & less humidity!

- Tracking the next storm chances Monday evening into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The weekend opens on a much more tranquil note than 24-hours ago when the much welcomed round of moderate to heavy rain was taking residence over the forecast area. Fast forward to early this morning and water vapor imagery displays the departing upper-low moving through central Iowa en-route toward the Ohio Valley. The last of the raindrops have ended in western WI and the back edge of the cloud shield is gradually moving east through central MN. Nighttime GOES RGB channel does display some holes in the cloud deck over far eastern MN into western WI, which has accelerated boundary layer cooling and supported the development of patchy fog (at times dense). Light winds and Friday's rainfall will keep instances of patchy fog possible through daybreak, however the lingering cloud cover does introduce some uncertainty in how widespread fog will be.

Fog will erode shortly after daybreak and will be followed up by a beautiful weekend and start to August! The Upper Midwest sits in a region of large scale subsidence behind the departing low and the expansion of a ridge from the west. Comfortable high temperatures in the low to mid 80s will be the theme across the forecast area today and tomorrow under mostly sunny skies. As was previously discussed, it may be a little hazy on the horizon owing to smoke in the upper- levels of the atmosphere, but even that looks to be limited through the weekend. The final piece of the pleasant weekend forecast is the arrival of drier air, thus less humidity thanks to northerly surface flow.

Early next week, a progressive trough supported by an active 60-70kt Pacific jet will advance across central Canada. The core of an upper- low embedded within the trough will remain well to the north of the International Border, however an associated trailing cold front will extend south across the northern CONUS. The front will be the focus for thunderstorm development Monday evening across the eastern Dakotas & northwestern MN. SPC has highlighted the Red River Valley in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) where frontal forcing will combine with sufficient moisture pooling ahead of the boundary to yield CAPEs in the 1500-2000 J/kg range supportive of severe convection. Latest guidance suite displays a more modest moisture picture to the southeast of the Slight Risk into our forecast area, which should support weakening convection as it advances eastward late Monday night into Tuesday morning. SPC did include a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) across west-central MN with the new Day 3 Outlook which represents the potential for an isolated damaging wind gust or instance of large hail. NBM's PoPs capture this idea, displaying 60-80% PoPs from Yellow Medicine to Todd counties late Monday night. PoPs fall to just 20-30% over eastern MN & western WI by daybreak Tuesday. The front is progged to sag southward across the forecast area Tuesday and will force renewed convective chances along the MN/IA border during the second half of the day. Putting the pieces together, it looks like western MN has the best chance for thunderstorms later Monday evening, but if current trends continue much of the forecast area will miss out on meaningful precipitation from this frontal passage. High pressure returns Wednesday and temperatures aim to run near or just below normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the middle of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Following yesterday's rain, areas of fog have developed across southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. This fog will hang around for the next couple of hours before clearing. Mostly sunny skies and northerly winds around 10kts are expected today with the occasional gust up to 20kts. Overnight, winds go light with clear skies. Another round of morning fog may be possible by the end of the TAF period.

KMSP...The majority of the dense fog is just southeast of MSP this morning, roughly along a line from KMKT-KLVN-KRNH. Northerly winds should help keep these lower cigs/vis at bay. However, MVFR visibilities are possible through the next hour or two. Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20kts. TUE...VFR, chc am -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW to NW 5-15kts. WED...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.