textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warm up into Friday. A cold front to bring isolated showers on Saturday morning and a slight cooldown into Sunday night.

- Increasing confidence for normal to above normal temperatures as next week progresses.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Current temperatures across the area largely in the 30s, except from a few upper 20s in west-central MN where skies have remained clear. Expecting us to cool off a few more degrees by this morning, but with dewpoints in the mid to upper 20s, not foreseeing widespread frost. We'll have to see if our WI counties under a Frost Advisory verify. Radar imagery is showing some scattered light returns across southern MN. But, looking at MnDOT road cameras it seems like no precipitation is reaching the ground. A brief warm up to end the work week begins with today's highs being in the mid 50s to lower 60s while Friday's are forecast in the mid 60s to near 70s. Each day also looks favorable for deep boundary layer mixing, so have used the HRRR to slightly lower dewpoints (and RHs) during the afternoon hours. No precipitation is expected through Friday, so with the warmer temperatures it will be a nice end to the work week, particularly Friday.

Scattered showers are possible from central MN to northwestern WI during Saturday morning as a mid-level shortwave and surface cold front pass through the Upper Midwest. Currently have 20-40% PoPs over our northern and northeastern counties so not expecting anything significant. But at least a few raindrops would be welcome after a dry last several days. The rest of the weekend looks dry as cooler air behind the cold front is advected into our area. Highs will return to the mid 50s to lower 60s Saturday and Sunday. Frost/freeze concerns could also return Saturday night and Sunday night, especially over central MN and west-central WI where lows are forecast in the lower 30s.

Temperatures should trend normal to above normal throughout next week as upper-level ridging over the western CONUS tries to move into the central CONUS. Though, deterministic models and ensembles show decent agreement that this progress may be briefly stalled around Tuesday. One last shortwave from our prolonged northwesterly flow is favored to pass through during this time period, which would bring a chance of rain and an attendant cold front. But after mid- week, widespread highs in the 70s look likely with even lower 80s coming back into the picture towards next weekend. Long-range ensembles generally suggest upper-level ridging to have success reaching the central CONUS. Indeed, the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook shows a welcome sight: above normal temperatures favored for the Northern Plains. Near normal precipitation is favored so a significant rainfall pattern doesn't appear to be on the horizon. However, the warmer airmass should have more moisture associated with it that a hypothetical future shortwave could take advantage of.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected the entire period. Broken clouds near 6000-8000 feet over the Minnesota River Valley and northwestern WI will move east and clear our area this morning. Another round of diurnal cumulus near 6000 feet is expected to develop by this afternoon before dissipating this evening. High clouds will remain through tonight. Light and variable winds this morning become west-northwesterly by late morning, increasing in speed to 7-12 knots through this afternoon. Winds return to light and variable by late evening but take on a more southerly direction by 12z Friday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SW to W 10-15 kts. SAT...Chc AM MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-Dunn- Eau Claire-Pepin-Rusk.