textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures expected through the majority of the period, with several days seeing highs above freezing.

- Slight chance precip late tonight/early Thursday morning and again early Friday morning across far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Following this morning's freezing drizzle/flurries, we've been left with widespread stratus. A few breaks are appearing upstream, but generally we'll be cloudy through the remainder of the day. A weak shortwave will skim our eastern CWA, leading to some light snow chances overnight. There's a risk for some freezing drizzle to work in as well as we lose the saturation in the DGZ, but accumulations of either p-type will be a trace to a few tenths at best. Temperatures tomorrow will likely break the freezing mark area wide, despite some lingering cloud cover as a warm front approaches from the Dakotas. Western Minnesota/the Buffalo Ridge may see a few hours of afternoon sun which would allow temperatures there to possibly break 40 degrees. Yet another weak wave will swing across Wisconsin Thursday night with chances for light precip for our easternmost Wisconsin counties. Given the temperature profile and a very pronounced warm nose aloft, p-type will be more of a concern. Once again QPF will be minimal, so this would likely lead to more of a freezing drizzle scenario with little to no accumulation.

Friday will be a bit cooler for some, but highs will still be above normal for early February. Sunshine during the day and continued clear skies overnight will allow for a large temperature swing of 20 to 30 degrees heading into Saturday morning. Saturday looks to be the coolest day of the period, but there will likely be a large temperature gradient from west (mid to upper 30s) to east (low to mid 20s). Temperatures warm for the second half of the weekend into the beginning of next week, with widespread highs in the 40s. Portions of western and southern Minnesota may make a run at 50 degrees as ridging settles in to start the week. With the jet stream coming back north, we could see a handful of precip chances through the rest of the extended period, but uncertainty remains high. Low PoPs (20-25%) cover this well for the time being, with mixed p-type issues once again thanks to our February thaw.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Generally low MVFR ceilings to start this period at all terminals. How the forecast evolves varies from west to east. For terminals across western Minnesota ceilings will slowly improve mid to late morning with VFR returning. To the east, in Wisconsin, ceilings will fall into lower MVFR or IFR and stay there for most of the day. This is also where snow chances are the highest, with the best chance for snow at EAU. Winds tonight will be light from the southwest before shifting back to the northwest by the late morning/early afternoon (varies based on location).

KMSP...Chance for some snow flurries tonight with similar impacts to what we saw Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.