textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend expected with highs in the 40s and 50s to near 60 possible.

- Light precip is possible late tonight into Tuesday for southern Minnesota with a system passing to our south. Better chance for widespread precip arrives by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Temperatures have increased a few degrees since midnight across southern Minnesota as warm air advection ramps up. Winds will continue to increase out of the south through late morning, with moisture and clouds streaming in across the region. Highs in the 40s should take a bite out of the snowpack across the Minnesota River Valley through southeastern Minnesota. The weak disturbance responsible for our increasing clouds today across the Plains may brush far southern Minnesota late tonight into early tomorrow morning. QPF amounts are very light, but there's a chance for some freezing drizzle as temperatures hover near 32 degrees. Any ice accumulation will be limited to a light glaze. The majority of the precip is expected during the early morning hours, so the threat for freezing drizzle/ice to impact the morning commute will need to be monitored. Additionally, this is bad news for those hoping to see the lunar eclipse Tuesday morning, as overcast skies hang around area wide through the morning. Some sun returns by the afternoon with highs in the upper 40s. Wednesday and Thursday will see temperatures break into the 50s with a run at 60 for far southwest Minnesota.

A notable pattern change arrives by the end of the week, with a cutoff low digging in across the Southwest. A series of disturbances associated with this feature will move across the central CONUS from Friday through the weekend. P-type shouldn't be much of a concern for us Friday with temperatures remaining in the 40s and 50s, but it will make for a soggy start to the first weekend of meteorological Spring. Depending on how long precip lingers into the overnight and early morning hours of Saturday, a short window of rain/snow mix is possible. The second half of the weekend will be drier and warm with highs in the low 60s. This dry period looks to be short lived with models still keying in on the potential for a strong system early next week and an active middle of March.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR becoming MVFR this afternoon for all sites. Currently a band of low MVFR stratus will continue to make its way northeastward over the course of the next few hours. A weak disturbance moves through across the MN/IA border tonight, thus bringing a chance of -FZDZ arriving as early as 4z and lasting a few hours for MKT and RWF. There is a slight potential for -DZ at RNH, EAU, MSP, and STC, however was not confident on the extent of coverage outside of southern MN at this time. MVFR cigs expected to prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. Southerly winds around 10kts this afternoon will weaken to near 5kts this evening then becoming SW'ly tomorrow morning.

KMSP...MVFR stratus expected to reach MSP ~20z. RA potential remains well south of MSP, although will need to monitor the northern extent of -DZ that could reach the field after 09z. Chances were too low to include any prob30 mentions in the TAF but if forecast sounding trends continue to advertise surface saturation, DZ will need to be introduced in the next routine issuance.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR. Wind S bcmg SW 5 kts. WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.