textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southerly winds expected this afternoon, rising temperatures into the 70s again.

- Multiple chances for rain today through Monday. The highest rain rates and amounts expected in S/SW MN Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

It is a relatively quiet morning, though we are seeing our first solid amount of cloud cover in several days. Temperatures are starting off warm for the day, with widespread 50s and 60s early this morning.

Multiple chances for rain are on the way, stemming from an area of low pressure that will deepen along the lee of the Rockies later today. Our first look at showers today will initiate from the increasing WAA, especially across western and central Minnesota where southerly winds are expected to gust between 25 and 35 mph today. Isolated showers move in as early as 7-9AM over southwest Minnesota, and become more scattered along a northeastwared-moving boundary by the afternoon. Forecast soundings reveal a couple hundred J of CAPE across central Minnesota, potentially supporting isolated thunderstorms embedded within the area of showers.

Warm temperatures today and tomorrow are the last hurrah of this late October "heatwave," as a cold front begins to sweep through the Upper Midwest. The front, and the series of upper waves tied to it, will promote continued chances for light rain through much of the weekend. By that, I do not mean a washout by any mean, in fact it is probably the opposite of that. It will not rain the whole weekend, nor will it rain everywhere. In the spots that do see rainfall, the amounts will be light Saturday and Sunday, primarily at or below 0.1".

Temperatures crash down to near-normal starting Sunday, and another low pressure travels northeast from the Central Plains. This puts us on the northern side of the low, which often can mean a greater chance for wintry precipitation, though current NBM temperatures Monday morning range from the upper 30s to low 40s. Long range guidance suggest any chance for snowflakes will stay to the north and east of us with this system. Rainfall amounts still look promising, with a gradual accumulation of between 0.5 to 0.75 inches across western Minnesota and about 0.2 to 0.5 inches for areas to the east. PoPs drop off by Tuesday, but remain between 10 to 30 percent through much of the rest of the week.

Halloween is starting to get into the range of our forecast, and current guidance shows no major sign of a large system that weekend, which would keep things roughly around normal conditions for late October.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The main change for this TAF period is south-southeasterly winds have been increased across western and central MN during Friday. Winds will be strongest during Friday afternoon across west-central MN (AXN) where sustained values will near 20 knots while gusts reach 30-35 knots. Winds will decrease heading east into WI. However, wind speeds and gusts as a whole will only slow slightly during Friday evening. Still expecting a band of -SHRA to move through western to central MN late morning into the afternoon. Have maintained PROB30s for STC and RWF. A small chance of -TSRA exists at AXN but confidence is not currently high enough to include in the TAF. Southerly LLWS of 40-50 knots is likely Friday evening over MN as a strong LLJ moves overhead.

KMSP...Slight chance of -SHRA at MSP late Friday afternoon but confidence is still too low to include in the TAF. South- southeasterly wind gusts of 20-25 knots expected Friday afternoon. Also, included southerly LLWS of 40 knots Friday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts becoming W. SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts. MON...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.