textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers & thunderstorms tonight. Can't rule out a few strong to severe storms from far-southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

-Seasonably cool & dry midweek. Rain chances return Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A few remnants showers & thunderstorms will linger over the area towards sunrise, but all of the active weather has moved well off to our east overnight. Cloud cover is expected to stick around through much of the day today, & cool northeast winds mean that temperatures may struggle to warm much out of the 50s & low 60s across much of central Minnesota. Farther east, portions of western Wisconsin will still remain ahead of the surface low/cold front & temperatures could reach the 70s this afternoon along with muggier dew points in the 60s.

We'll stay dry for much of the day today, but another round of showers thunderstorms is expected to spread northeastwards out of the central plains this evening. We should north of the prime environment for severe weather across KS/NE/IA, but will have to watch just how far north a corridor of weaker surface- based instability can make it into far-southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin this evening. Expect scattered showers to quickly spread northwards across MN & WI during the early evening, with the heaviest rainfall & best chance for thunder coming between8 PM to midnight. Can't rule out a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts across these areas, but otherwise we're just expecting your typical spring showers with a few rumbles of thunder at time. The most widespread concentration of thunderstorms, & heaviest rainfall amounts, are expected from southern Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin where rainfall amounts of 1-2" are likely. Elsewhere, the showers will be lighter & more sporadic so only expecting rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25-0.5". The showers & thunderstorms will continue on & off through the night, ending from west to east around sunrise.

Much cooler weather arrives after the rain with temperatures struggling to warm out of the 50s Tuesday. Strong cyclonic flow & colder temperatures aloft will likely create a prime environment for isolated diurnally-driven showers during the afternoon, but rainfall amounts from these will be light. May need to monitor the potential for another frost/freeze Wednesday morning if clouds are able to clear out overnight & the radiational cooling potential is maximized. Seasonably cool & dry weather continues through Thursday with another chance for showers & thunderstorms looking likely Friday into Saturday. Additional chances for showers & thunderstorms look possible over the Memorial Day weekend, but it won't be a washout of a weekend. Temperatures return to more seasonable values Friday into saturday, & could warm into the 80s Sunday & Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Thunderstorms impacts & gusty winds up to 30 kts will impact EAU over the next 1-2 hours, but otherwise only an hour or two of light showers are expected at MSP & RNH. Very messy ceilings forecast through sunrise, with guidance wanting to fill in low MVFR to IFR stratus across the area, but some drier air mixing in after the rain ends has temporarily scoured out low clouds across much of the area. I do expect these low clouds to fill back in into the early morning hours, but we could see a few hours of VFR until then.

We'll stay dry into this afternoon with low stratus likely sticking around through the day. Ceilings will be borderline MVFR/IFR, with IFR favored during the morning & some slight improvement to MVFR possible during the afternoon. Another round of rain showers arrives this evening, with a few thunderstorms likely from southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

KMSP...Could see sporadic wind gusts to 30 kts out of the east over the next hour or two as drier air behind the rain creates some turbulent winds. IFR ceilings look likely by sunrise & we'll likely hold on to these low ceilings into the afternoon. SOme improvement to above 1000 ft is likely during the afternoon, but ceilings could drop to IFR again tomorrow evening. Timing of the next round of rain looks to begin a as rain showers around 6-7 PM, with the best chance for some thunder between 9 PM to midnight. Scattered rain showers will continue on & off into early Tuesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR cigs becoming VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts. WED...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.