textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain spreads across western Wisconsin overnight, but temperatures should remain warm enough top prevent any icing.

- Northwesterly wind gusts over 30 mph this afternoon behind a cold front, along with rapidly falling temperatures

- Periods of light snow Thursday through Friday with total accumulations of 2-4" expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Light rain continues to spread across western Wisconsin overnight as expected, but temperatures a few degrees warmer than previously forecast has removed any chance for freezing rain/freezing drizzle. Ground temperatures still remain cold however, so still watch out for some slick patches on untreated surfaces through this morning from the light rain & melting snow.

A cold front moves through the region this afternoon & evening, leading to gusty northwest winds & plummeting temepratures after sunset. We usually see wind gusts overachieve in these cold advection regimes, so wind gusts of 30-40 mph look likely this afternoon & evening with gusts diminishing after midnight. The cold air from this front doesn't really arrive until this evening, so most of the area should still reach the 40s this afternoon. However, temperatures quickly plummet in the teens & single digits tonight. The cold advection continues into Wednesday with daytime highs only expected to be in the teens, while northwest winds make the wind chill fee near zero during the day.

Deterministic & ensemble guidance continues to be in consensus with a trough deepening over the Great Lakes Thursday through Friday, while a number of shortwaves/lobes of vorticity pivot over the area. This will create multiple waves of light to moderate snow Thursday through Friday, although none of these waves look to be accompanied by any appreciable moisture. SNowfall rates should remain light, with accumulations eventually adding up to 2-4" across most of the area by the time the snow wraps up Friday night/Saturday morning. We could see some borderline Advisory-level impacts if one of these waves of snow times up with the morning or evening commutes Thursday or Friday, but over wise this looks to be a "cosmetic snowfall" for the area.

We remain entrenched in a cold airmass after the trough begins sliding off to the east this weekend with ensemble guidance suggesting temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal this weekend into early next week. That likely means highs in the single digits & lows below zero, although lows will greatly depend on how much snow we see Thu-Fri & how clear skies can stay overnight. Winds also look to remain elevated through this cold snap, so we'll have to monitor the potential for cold weather advisories during the nights & morning hours.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 539 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mid level clouds and a narrow band of rain are progressing east quickly across western WI. Additional clouds to the northwest will work in during the next few hours and MVFR cigs are expected this afternoon and evening. West winds will become northwest gusting to 30-35 kts this afternoon and evening.

KMSP...No concerns this morning. MVFR cigs will arrive early afternoon with west to northwest winds increasing gradually through the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, chc MVFR early. Wind N 10-15 kts. THU...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR/LIFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.