textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and seasonable weather for the next 7+ days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Alright, move on, nothing to see here... besides being a great movie quote also sums up our weather over the next 7+ days. If you've been outside today, you've likely noticed a decidedly drier airmass is in place and that is thanks to the cold front that cleared the MPX area to the southeast this morning. We're seeing high pressure move in from Montana, with dewpoints in the Dakotas into northern MN down in the 30s. As this high moves in, we'll see skies gradually clear out, which will set up a cool start to your Friday, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Southerly winds develop late in the day on Thursday as the high moves into WI/IL. These southerly winds will remain in place through the day on Saturday before our next cold front moves through Saturday night. Eventually, these southerly winds will bring a chance at seeing some highs in the 70s on Saturday in western MN, but the big thing with this front is it represents our only, and rather meager, chance at rain over the next 7 days. The upper wave driving this front will be going across Canada, with an extension down into MN. So the forcing is better to the north. Moisture is lack luster as we never really recover our moisture feed from today's frontal passage. Forecast soundings show very dry air in the lowest 8k feet or so of the atmosphere. So you add in weak forcing, weak moisture, no convective instability, and the inverted-v soundings and it all adds up to a pretty minor rain event. We expect scattered showers to move through with the front Saturday night and did see the NBM bump up PoPs into the 30s, but amounts will be under a tenth of an inch. The good news is these rain chances will come long after any Little Brown Jugs are earned.

Behind this front, we get high pressure and pleasant weather for Sunday, with excellent weather conditions for things like any runs or tailgating adventures you may have planned for what will be a busy weekend of events in the Twin Cities.

Next week, we'll see above normal heights spread across the CONUS, with the upper jet retreating into Canada. This is a classic setup for seeing mild and dry Pacific airmasses overspreading the CONUS and that's exactly what we'll see. The high pressure from Sunday will be in the Great Lakes by the start of next week, with warm southerly winds overspreading the region. Add in a shortwave moving across Canada mid-week helping to draw warm air north and we have what should be a beautiful stretch of weather next week, with highs in the 70s starting Tuesday. There are no indications of any stronger fronts and changes to this airmass until next weekend, though right now, deterministic, machine learning, and ensemble models alike show this being another dry fropa.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1149 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected the entire period as high clouds will clear over southern/eastern MN and WI this evening. Mostly clear skies will be left afterwards. Northwesterly winds gusts will approach 20 knots this afternoon before winds slow to near 5 knots this evening through tonight. Wind direction becomes more variable over western MN Friday morning as surface high pressure nears.

KMSP...VFR expected the entire period. Northwesterly wind gusts will reach 20 knots this afternoon before slowing to near 5 knots tonight. Winds turn southwesterly Friday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, chc P.M. -SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.