textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Incoming weather system today has trended towards greater impacts due to higher potential snow accumulations and gusty winds across most of the area.

- Rain transitions to snow from west to east from late afternoon to evening today, with heavy snowfall rates possible. Winds gusting as high as 40-45mph will result in blowing snow, reduced visibility, and difficult travel overnight.

- Blowing snow will continue Wednesday until winds diminish later in the day, with cold but otherwise quiet weather to end the week.

- A clipper type system will bring another chance for accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Today will be the most interesting weather day we have experienced over the last few months with fog early, rain during the day turning into snow later on, and significant blowing snow due to gusty winds. To start with what is happening now, we are firmly within the low level soup with low level stratus and fog overspreading the area this morning, with visibility due to fog down to below a mile in spots across the area. A few spots have dropped down to 1/4 mile namely across portions of south-central MN from Mankato and eastwards, with most of the area generally 2 miles or higher. The cloud deck is just off the ground as low as around 200ft, so even in spots that are not seeing significant fog development, the cloud base is low enough that it will feel as though there is no visibility regardless. Fog isn't expected to go anywhere until rain showers begin to overspread the area, which generally occurs from west to east from late morning to midday as the leading edge of the incoming trough reaches western Minnesota.

The high resolution guidance from 00z last night through this morning remains aggressive on an overall southward shift from prior guidance closer to what the AIFS has been pushing for the last 4-5 days, resulting in significant upgrades to not only snow amounts across much of the area but overall impacts. The upper level trough swings through with a surface low developing as it does, with significant lower-mid level CAA crashing temperatures into the DGZ by 22-23z in western MN and 00-01z in the Twin Cities. These crashing temperatures will result in efficient snowfall production as we saturate the DGZ and still see strong forcing due to the upper level trough and surface low, with snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour possible from the onset of snowfall. A trowel shows up within most of the high resolution guidance continuing to lead to highly efficient snow production, with a brief dry slot possible mainly in portions of southern MN as the rain moves out and the southwestern edge of precipitation wraps around. The heaviest snowfall will occur within the 2-3 hours after it transitions from rain, however light snow looks to continue at least into early Wednesday if not lingering through sunrise and into the AM commute. Strong surface winds are expected to form as the surface low strengthens, resulting in winds increasing to 20-30mph with gusts as high as 40-45, even 50mph in spots from the north to northwest from the afternoon onwards. Snow ratios in the range of 15/18 to 1 could be reduced by the strong winds, but generally we can expect the highest snow amounts in central MN where the strongest band is most likely to move through with the lowest amounts still in southern MN. The range looks to be on the order of 6-8 inches across our northern CWA, down to 2-4 inches in southern MN and western WI from Pierce to EAU/Chippewa based off not only the blended guidance but also input from CAMs. This may be an event where snow totals can vary significantly based on land usage and where one measures, as the strong winds will make it difficult to find flat areas that are not affected by drifting and blowing snow. Generally, if you're planning on traveling before the holidays over the next few days, our recommendation would be to leave either early today or wait until later on Wednesday after the winds diminish and blowing snow becomes less of a concern.

Gusty winds persist through daylight Wednesday, resulting in further slow travel due to blowing snow that improves as winds diminish Wednesday night. Temperatures at the surface will crash into the teens by Thanksgiving morning as skies also begin to clear out on top of the fresh snowpack, which often causes cooler temperatures than guidance predicts as dew points can drop lower than expected. These cold temperatures generally remain locked in through the rest of the period and into early December with some guidance showing single digit lows the first week of the month. Another chance for light snow arrives Friday night into Saturday with a clipper type feature sliding across the area, featuring a weak upper level trough and surface low. Until we get through the short term system, confidence remains low not only in placement but strength of any mesoscale features, so stay tuned for further information on weekend travel implications. Behind the weekend chances, we look to be dry into early next week as a strong arctic high moves across the area early in the week, leading to the aforementioned single digit temperatures and keeping the cold air locked in.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

It's a wild weather period for this TAF set. First, we have the stratus/fog over eastern MN/western WI. For that, pushed vsbys down tonight through much of Tuesday morning at MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU given the moist environment, limited mixing, and the fact we already have low vsbys out there lends more credibility to the soup coming out in force the rest of the night, lasting through most of the morning given the light winds. At that point, attention then turns to powerful upper wave now entering the western Dakotas. In the 00z guidance, this storm is trending south and in the angry direction. We're seeing snow potential increasing at all terminals. I don't know if we're going to go quite as far off into the deep end as the RAP has, but all terminals (save for EAU in this period) will see a period of heavy snow Tuesday evening.

KMSP...Based on obs to the east and southeast of MSP, it's looking likely we'll see LIFR cigs/vis by the time traffic picks up Tuesday morning. -RA is expected to break out by noon, with the transition to snow pushed back an hour from the previous TAF. Snow totals are definitely trending up, with many of the 00z guidance indicating snow totals approaching 6 inches will be possible Tuesday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR cigs. -SHSN early. Wind NW 15-25G30-35kts. THU...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts. FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind NW to NE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Watch from 9 AM this morning to noon CST today for Douglas-Pope-Stevens-Todd. Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd. Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Wednesday for Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison. Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Benton-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Redwood- Renville-Stearns-Yellow Medicine. Winter Storm Watch Wednesday morning for Benton-Stearns. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago- Hennepin-Isanti-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Scott-Sherburne- Sibley-Watonwan-Wright. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to noon CST Wednesday for Anoka-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-Isanti-McLeod-Ramsey- Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Washington-Wright. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Dakota-Ramsey-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Washington. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Goodhue. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Polk. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to noon CST Wednesday for Barron-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Barron-Rusk-St. Croix. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce.