textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist through early next week, with highs rising from the 30s/40s through Thursday to the 40s/50s from Friday into next week.

- Saturday's warm high temperatures will have MSP, STC, and EAU all approaching 90+ year old records.

- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with the next chance for precipitation not until the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure sitting over the central CONUS with a weak surface front sagging SW over the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest from western Canada. Other than providing some cloud cover from the eastern Dakotas into western MN, this front is not expected to have any impacts across the WFO MPX coverage area today. Aloft, a fairly un-amplified trough east/ridge west pattern is atop the Lower 48 states this morning, with generally NW flow atop the Upper Midwest.

The front out west of our coverage area will have little impetus to push eastward today into Thursday. With as weak as it is in the lower levels plus no upper level support to provide divergence for precipitation, its only impact will be an increase in cloud cover later today through tonight. The increase in clouds plus effective warm air advection remaining to the west, temperatures today will be a touch on the cool side (except for SW MN) but still well above normal. Highs will remain in the 30s for northern and eastern parts of the coverage area, while southern and western portions reach the 40s (and possibly touch 50 in Lac Qui Parle and Yellow Medicine counties).

The continual drying out trend in the models is again evident in this model run, so much so that PoPs have been removed from the forecast for Thursday with the low pressure area that is still expected to develop over the Central Plains now being shunted far south enough where it is no longer of concern for MN/WI. This in turn then means a slight uptick in temperatures for Thursday, with most areas reaching highs in the 40s, though some spots north of I-94 holding in the 30s while a larger area (now near and south of the Minnesota River) expected to nudge into the lower 50s.

From Friday onward, very little change in the ongoing thinking with the models still advertising dry and "warm" conditions for mid-February. High pressure moving to and settling over the eastern seaboard and reinforcing ridging out west shifting into the central CONUS will combine to make for an appreciable surge of warm air across our region. Thus, temperatures will run some 20-30 degrees above normal, with highs reaching the mid 50s over the weekend into early next week. Highs in the Twin Cities are still forecast to reach 50 degrees on Saturday and into the mid 50s early next week. Normal highs are only in the upper 20s!

The only mention of precipitation now comes next week Tuesday into Wednesday in the form of mostly rain given the antecedent warmth and lack of significant airmass change to bring strong cooling.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Aside from some patchy morning MVFR fog, VFR conditions are expected throughout this duration. Mid-level clouds in western MN associated with a decaying frontal boundary will drift slight farther S and E but remain out of E-central through SE MN and western WI for this morning. However, the mid-level ceilings will get a bit more impetus to push east this afternoon through tonight, making a mix of BKN/OVC coverage around 060. The cloud cover will remain through sunrise then gradually dissipate during the day Thursday. Light/variable winds through the day will become SE at around 5kts tonight into tomorrow.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI-SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts becoming S late.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.