textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder air is arriving this afternoon and will persist through Friday night.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon across central and southern Minnesota.

- A more active pattern is expected next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Cold air advection continues this afternoon following a frontal passage overnight. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 20s and low 30s across western Minnesota, while milder air is clinging on at the moment to the east. High pressure will build south into the northern Plains tonight and Friday morning, sliding to the southeast to the mid Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and Friday night. After a short period of colder conditions with highs only in the 30s Friday, a moderating trend will begin as early as Saturday. Radar has shown persistent echos across central Minnesota and far southern Minnesota for much of the day, but nothing has reached the ground. There is a stout dry layer between 4-10kft. If not for that, we would be talking about accumulating snow.

Return flow will begin tomorrow night as the high pushes southeast. An increasing pressure gradient will lead to gusty winds late Saturday morning and afternoon. Forecast soundings exhibit deep mixing and gust potential in the 30-40 kt range. In addition, the high will scour moisture out of the entire southeastern U.S. so moisture advection will be lacking while temperatures rebound back to 60. Afternoon humidity values are likely to fall into the teens, leading to the potential for critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for central and southern Minnesota for Saturday afternoon. Improved low level moisture and lighter winds will allow for improving conditions Saturday night and Sunday.

The pattern next week will be dominated by a western trough/ eastern ridge pattern. A few fast moving, weak systems will eject east across the northern CONUS through the period. Predictability with any of those at this range is not great, so PoPs remain low and persistent. As the last discussion pointed out, the best moisture will generally be east and the best forcing will be north. This should keep us from seeing a significant precip event until maybe next weekend. Temperatures will largely depend on where these systems track. A northerly track should send us into the 70s and 80s and a southerly track would keep us in the 40s and 50s. Not surprisingly, the NBM is splitting the difference nicely for now, but the forecast is likely to trend up and/or down each day next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

MVFR ceilings at initialization will remain across the area through late afternoon then gradually lift to low-range VFR going into the evening hours. Skies will then partially clear out while clouds remain at varying levels overnight through midday Friday. Breezy/gusty N winds will continue through the daylight hours, diminish a bit this evening through overnight, then pick up once again to breezy/gusty fro the NW on Friday. No additional precipitation is expected at any of the TAF sites.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings to continue through late afternoon then during the afternoon-evening push rise to VFR levels. VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder of this duration, with some clearing tonight through tomorrow and no precipitation expected. Some fair wx mid-level cumulus clouds are possible during the day tomorrow. Winds to continue from the N through tonight, with breezy/gusty speeds into this evening before settling down to around 10kts. Speeds then pick up once again after daybreak Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-20G25-30 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NE 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota- Douglas-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison- Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington- Wright. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Lac Qui Parle- Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.