textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers & thunderstorms Friday, especially during the morning. There is a small chance of a few strong to severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon & evening across far- southern Minnesota.

- Rain during the morning transitions over to freezing rain, then a mix of freezing rain & snow Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Ice accumulations around 0.1" and snow accumulations of 1-3" are expected across western & central Minnesota.

- Another wintry system is expected Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by well-below normal temperatures through mid-March.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Clouds have again been slow to clear this afternoon, resulting is slightly cooler highs - but still another pleasant early day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Patchy fog is still possible overnight but the clouds & higher wind speeds should keep it much less widespread than prior nights.

The weather becomes more active overnight as an area of low pressure tracks northeastwards from the central plains through Iowa & a broad shield of precipitation spreads northwards ahead of the low. Patchy drizzle is possible tonight, but the precipitation really begins during the early morning hours when showers & thunderstorms begin spreading across the southern 1/3 of Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5" are expected with this morning round of rain, but localized amounts near an inch are possible with any slower moving thunderstorms. Meanwhile, not expecting m ore than light showers or drizzle farther north across central Minnesota.

A lull in the precipitation is then expected through the morning & potentially most of the afternoon. Drizzle will likely still be ongoing through this period, but the heavier rain will stay south & east of the area across Iowa & Wisconsin. There is a small chance for a second round of thunderstorms during the late afternoon & evening to extend as far north as far-southern Minnesota, & a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with this later round. Far-southern Minnesota remains under a marginal Risk, mainly for hail during this second round, but again this threat appears to be much more likely off to our south.

More impactful to our area will be a transition from the drizzle & light rain into freezing rain as colder air filters into western Minnesota during the afternoon. Around 0.1" of ice appears likely across west-central Minnesota, especially during the late afternoon & evening when more appreciable precipitation arrives out of the Dakotas. As the evening progresses, this area of frozen precipitation will begin spreading east into eastern Minnesota & far-western Wisconsin. but we expect the freezing drain to generally transition more into a wintry mix of snow & freezing rain, & eventually all snow by the overnight hours. Snowfall amounts of 1-3" are expected across west-central Minnesota once the freezing rain changes over to ice during the late night hours, which in addition to the prior ice will create very slick conditions on roads & surfaces from late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for this area, but will need to monitor trends tonight & into Friday in case we need to extend it farther east into the Twin Cities metro & eastern Minnesota should the icing potential become more widespread. The light snow exits off to the northeast by mid-morning Saturday, & temperatures should rebound to around 40 degrees by the afternoon, quickly improving any lingering slick roads. Temperatures continue an even more impressive warm-up Sunday into Monday as strong thermal ridging builds over the central CONUS. Ensemble temperature anomalies suggest temperatures of 20-30 degrees above normal by Monday, meaning widespread highs in the 60s look possible if we can keep any low-level cloud cover away.

Winter is expected to return for the middle of March however, as a large weather system over the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday ushers in a pronounced stretch of below-normal weather. Temperatures will begin to fall Monday night into Tuesday morning as as a broad low pressure system spreads south of our area from the central plains into the mid-Mississippi valley. Most of the precipitation with this system again looks to remain south & east of our area, but a swath of accumulating snow is evident in the AI deterministic & ensemble guidance Tuesday into Wednesday in our cold air regime behind the low. Beyond that, well-below normal temperatures look likely to persist through the middle of March, with a few systems capable of wintry weather possible.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Messy next ~36 hours of aviation weather, as a storm system brings rain, thunderstorms, and varying wintry precipitation types to the region. The period opens on a benign note, with MVFR stratus ~2k feet over most of the terminals. Patchy fog persists at AXN, though visibility has greatly improved over the past few hours. Ceilings will gradually lower to IFR or lower levels tonight ahead of rain chances that will overspread the region Friday morning. Looks like there will be an initial surge of precipitation in the morning that may include isolated instances of thunderstorms across southern MN. We have addressed this with a PROB30 for TS at MKT. There will likely be a lull in rain showers following the morning round, though low ceilings will likely persist through the period. Will also monitor for the development of locally dense fog across central MN following morning precipitation chances. Rain chances will increase Friday afternoon ahead of the systems cold front. Will need to watch for isolated thunder potential, which again looks most likely at MKT. The focus will then shift to colder air flowing in from the northwest, resulting in a transition from rain to a wintry mix of freezing rain and snow across western MN. Majority of the wintry precipitation will fall beyond the 00z TAF period, so would anticipate greater mention in the next TAF package.

KMSP...Ceilings gradually lower to IFR levels overnight ahead of rain showers that look to arrive between 9-12z. On/off rain showers will persist through the morning and could have an isolated rumble of thunder, though those chances appear greater across southern MN. Renewed rain/thunder chances return Friday afternoon. Confidence in thunder is too low to include in the TAF at this time, but bears watching. We'll likely see a transition from rain to snow late Friday into early Saturday with minor accumulations possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/IFR -RA/SN early. VFR PM. Wind NW 10-20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for Chippewa-Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift- Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for Benton-Brown-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne- Sibley-Stearns-Todd-Watonwan-Wright. WI...None.