textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant this weekend with seasonable temperatures.

- Another round of scattered showers & thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Showers & thunderstorms continue to exit the area into central Wisconsin as a cold front moves through the region. Some lower cloud cover may linger through the morning, especially across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin, but skies should gradually clear through the day as drier air begins filtering into the area behind the front. Northwest winds will become a bit breezy by late morning & afternoon with gusts around 20 mph, but otherwise were looking at a pleasant end to the work week with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.

An even nicer weekend is expected as Canadian high pressure settles into the Upper Midwest. Northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal with highs near 80 both Saturday & Sunday, while much drier dew points make it feel considerably more comfortable than the muggy weather we've seen at times this week. Saturday looks a little breezier with northwest winds gusting to around 20 mph during the afternoon, while winds become light by Sunday as the surface high moves directly over the region. Mostly sunny skies are expected both days. Nights will be fairly cool for late August as well, with lows in the 50s outside of the Twin Cities metro Saturday & Sunday nights. Some of the typical cooler locations across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin could dip into the 40s.

A shortwave is forecast to move across the Dakotas Sunday, brining a chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms. General model consensus is to keep this activity west of the area across South dakota & southwest Minnesota, but can't rule out a slight chance of some rain across western Minnesota. Better chances for rain look to come late Monday into Tuesday, when a stronger shortwave is forecast to skirt along the US-Canada border & a cold front passes through the region. Increasing dew points values ahead of the front along with seasonably strong wind shear associated with the shortwave suggests there could be a stronger storm or two, but this will ultimately on the timing of the front during the late afternoon & evening.

Northwest flow returns behind the front for Wednesday & Thursday, bringing another stretch of quiet weather to finish out the forecast period. Temperatures look to settle back close to seasonal normals with highs generally in the low 80s & comfortable nighttime temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Ensemble guidance continues to favor the stronger upper-level ridging remaining southwest of the region, which should keep any significant late-summer heat away from Minnesota & Wisconsin through the end of the week. Overall, outside of the relatively low-confidence shower & thunderstorm chances Monday into Tuesday, were looking at a fairly quiet stretch of late-August weather over the next seven days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered showers & a few thunderstorms continue across western Wisconsin for the next 2-3 hours, but only expect to see some brief impacts at EAU. Satellite shows MVFR cloud cover streaming southwards out of northern Minnesota, with the question being just how widespread this cloud cover will remain by the time it reaches central MN & western WI early this morning. MVFR ceilings are most likely at AXN/STC, followed by RNH/EAU. Can't rule out some lower ceilings farther south at MSP/MKT, but current thinking is that ceilings will have scattered out or lifted somewhat by then. Light winds tonight go from southwesterly to northwesterly by tomorrow morning. Speeds increase through the morning with gusts up to 20 kts expected by late morning/early afternoon. Winds diminish by sunset.

KMSP...Can't rule out some patchy low cloud cover this morning with MVFR ceilings at times. Main window for any lower ceilings will be between 5 AM-9 AM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late night. Wind S 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.