textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible late afternoon into this evening mainly near and east of I-35, north and east of the TC metro.

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the strongest storms capable of large hail or damaging wind gusts.

- Rain-free weather is expected late tonight through Friday, then chances for rain and thunderstorms return Friday night through the weekend.

- Temperatures to generally remain seasonable through the end of the month.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A fairly potent cold front, sagging south from a low pressure center straddling the southern Manitoba/Ontario border, continues to press eastward across MN. Dewpoints drop off appreciably going into the Dakotas while the wind shift is slowly taking place over far western MN this afternoon. However, in advance of this cold front, a narrow moist/warm sector is evident with dewpoints into the upper 60s and temperatures into the low-mid 80s. With the front moving across, this is leading colder air aloft into the region despite the low level WAA, making for steeper lapse rates along with MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg. In addition, a modest mid-level shortwave aloft along with mid-upper level jetting will contribute to stronger t-storm development late this afternoon into this evening. However, the narrow warm sector along with meager support aloft will hinder widespread thunderstorm development, which is generally confirmed by recent CAM runs which do not indicate much in the way of coverage. Thus, thunderstorm development looks to commence late this afternoon just north/east of the TC Metro and press eastward into the evening hours, matching the progression of the cold front through the eastern parts of the WFO MPX coverage area. Cloud cover was a limiting factor in western WI through this morning, but some recovery has allow instability to grow just enough to make western WI the focus for any strong-severe thunderstorms, which aligns with the today's SWODY1 updates. The main hazard still looks to be large hail but damaging straight-line winds and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Any and all storms look to push out of our coverage area by midnight, with western Canadian high pressure filling in behind the front.

Rain-free conditions with lower dewpoints are expected for Wednesday through Friday as the center of the broad high pressure airmass lumbers its way eastward across the Upper Midwest. Some cloud cover may linger on Wednesday but a significant dry layer looks to prevent any potential showers from being realized at the surface. Come Friday night into Saturday, a more active weather pattern looks to develop as a series of weak low pressure centers over the Rockies become more organized, aided by an enhanced Northern jet stream along with multiple incoming shortwave disturbances. Early Saturday through late Sunday looks to feature multiple rounds of rainfall, potentially with scattered thunderstorms, as a warm front takes its time moving across the region while deeper swaths of moisture are advected into the region. Rainfall chances, while diminishing, then remain in the forecast into early next week.

Temperatures will remain generally similar day-to-day throughout this forecast period, which is also fairly close to normal values. Highs throughout the next 7 days will remain in the low- mid 80s, but it is the lows that will have more variability due to frontal passages and cloud cover hindering radiational cooling (or lack thereof enhancing radiational cooling).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The front has been a little slower to arrive than previous forecasts, but winds have finally gone westerly/northwesterly across western Minnesota early this afternoon. Slowed the FROPA down a bit across the board. Further east, SCT-BKN mid clouds remain in place. KMKT dipped into MVFR territory, so added a TEMPO for a few hours. Precip wise, coverage is still expected to be very scattered late this afternoon. Did decide to include a PROB30 at KRNH late this evening for -TSRA. Skies are expected to clear out overnight before a Cu field develops late Wednesday morning, but conditions should remain VFR.

KMSP...Still kept TSRA out of the TAF as the best chances are still further north and east. Southwesterly winds with gusts to around 20kts will continue into this evening before turning northwesterly and decreasing behind the front. Northwest gusts increase again tomorrow to around 20kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR chc MVFR w/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.