textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and a few breezy days are expected through this weekend, spawning fire weather concerns. - Next widespread chance for precip doesn't arrive until early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows troughing continuing to sink southeastward over northern MN and Lake Superior. The parent low pressure center associated with this trough will move in over the Hudson Bay region leaving the upper-jet locally over the northern plains. This will help develop scattered mid to high clouds through the course of today. Given the passage of this system, it is expected to be another breezy day with wind gusts, especially north and east of I-94 could range between 20-25 mph later this morning into the afternoon. Temperatures will not be as warm as they were yesterday. Given our winds have shifted NW'ly cooler air should have no issue mixing towards the surface. Central MN can anticipate highs in the upper 60s while southern MN see the lower 70s. As the forecast remains dry, warmer temps combined with breezy conditions will support continued elevated fire weather conditions, especially across portions of western MN.

Come Thursday, the apex of the upper-trough slides east over the eastern Great Lakes region. Upper-ridging accompanied with building 1020mb surface high pressure will keep the forecast quiet for the rest of the week. Thursday's highs will be closer to seasonal values (mid-60s) but are expected to rebound quickly for the weekend. The forecast remains quiet but an only exception is that guidance was trying to generate a weak disturbance Friday afternoon across the west-central plains and perhaps produce some weak rain showers across southern MN. However, latest NBM PoPs have better confidence for seeing rainfall is within Iowa. For Saturday, H850 temperature anomalies are forecasted (+12-16 deg) to be similar to what we saw yesterday. Currently the NBM is forecast to warm highs into the lower 80s for most areas Saturday but given the warmer verification from obs on Tuesday, its possible that Saturday's highs may be needed to nudge warmer. Additionally, increased winds between 30-40 mph will be possible as a surface warm front sweeps through. This will create another day of elevated fire weather concerns. Rainfall chances remain in place for early next week as another low pressure system move across the northernplains. As mentioned in the previous discussion, total QPF appears to be decreasing. Temps will return to the upper 50s and lower 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR. A mix of clear skies and scattered upper-level clouds will continue through the period. NW winds will shift WNW'y by late morning/early afternoon gusting between 20-25kts. Given that today is another good day for mixing air down from aloft, its possible that wind gusts could reach closer to 25-30kts this afternoon. Gusts decrease this evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts becoming SE. SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 15-20G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.