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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold temperatures continue through Sunday night. A Cold Weather Advisory will be needed Sunday night.

- Remaining quiet with below normal temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

It's another cold afternoon with temperatures in the single digits above zero across southwest MN and below zero elsewhere. Winds are light, so wind chills are negligible. The Upper Midwest will be sandwiched between two high pressure systems tonight. While winds will continue to be light enough to facilitate efficient radiational cooling, increasing clouds with an approaching trough will keep temperatures from falling to levels seen this morning. Low level cloud cover may also shake out a few flurries, but the profile will be colder than the DGZ and little or no lift will be present within the saturated layer to support more than a few flakes here and there.

Another high pressure will build south into the Plains Sunday night. After rising above zero Sunday, a cold front will bring another shot of Arctic air in Sunday night. The ridge axis will extend north into the Upper Midwest and winds should become light with clear skies. This will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions and there should be widespread -20s north of I-94. Enough wind may exist to result in hazardous wind chills which is likely to prompt another Cold Weather Advisory into Monday morning.

A clipper will slide southeast Monday to the northern Great Lakes by Monday night. There is good model consistency in a high confidence/low QPF situation from northern MN to northern WI Monday evening. Forecast soundings near Ladysmith snow saturation and moderate Omega for a brief period. Added slight chance PoPs northeast of Rice Lake and Eau Claire, but will probably need to increase them in coming forecasts if model consistency remains good.

Northwest flow will continue next week with occasional bouts of colder air. Some flurries are possible at times, but the atmosphere should be too dry for any accumulating snow. A moderating trend should arrive next weekend as a milder Pacific airmass engulfs North America.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1055 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions expected into tonight before low-end VFR to high-end MVFR scattered to broken clouds arrive over western MN. Clouds will slowly travel east through Sunday morning but coverage should thin with eastern extent. Currently, AXN looks the most likely to see MVFR between 09-16Z while RWF falls to MVFR after. Southerly winds near 5 knots will slow to calm/variable tonight. Northerly winds near 5 knots begin to spread across western MN by late Sunday morning.

KMSP...Cigs will slowly lower, dropping to near 2000 feet by Sunday afternoon. However, have lower confidence on if cloud coverage on Sunday afternoon is enough to reach MVFR. Currently have scattered coverage at 2000 feet after 19Z Sunday but MVFR may be possible in future updates. Winds become northwesterly at 5-10 knots late Sunday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR, chc -SN/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.


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