textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A quick burst of snow this evening across portions of eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Accumulations up to 1 to 3".

- Periods of light snow Friday into Friday night. Additional accumulations up to an inch possible.

- Gusty winds will combine with falling snow to cause low visibility from blowing snow, especially in open areas. Hazardous travel is expected.

- Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for W & S MN for Friday's blowing snow/hazardous weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A rather busy stretch of weather is in store for us across the Upper Midwest. Current radar highlights a band of precipitation stretching from northeast Minnesota northward into Canada. This band of snow is associated with a sfc warm front that moves across MN & WI this afternoon. This frontal passage will be dry for most of us but a few flurries may make it to the surface in W WI. The culprit is a layer of extremely dry air in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere that was measured on the 12Z MPX sounding. The radar will show returns overhead at 8 to 10kft+ where it is technically snowing, but the snow will evaporate as it falls through the dry air layer. Warmer temperatures will arrive this afternoon and our high temperature likely occurs late this evening as temps surge into the upper 20s to mid 30s. This will likely be the last above freezing temperature for the next 7+ days as much colder air builds in this weekend.

Despite being less than 24 hours out, the snow forecast for this evening into Friday morning remains fluid with subtle, but important shifts over the past 12 hours. Another band of snow that is currently upstream over the Dakotas & southern Manitoba will track into W MN this evening and into E MN & W WI tonight. This feature is tied to the ULL & it's associated strong vorticity advection, acting as the primary forcing for a burst of snow that could lead to slick travel in the Metro late this evening/overnight. It'll be a quick moving hit of snow, likely 2 to 5 hours, but accumulations of 1 to 3" are possible by the time the snow tapers off overnight. Winds will ramp up behind it and begin to turn to the northwest. Gusts up to 35 mph will be likely, especially in W MN. Temperatures will begin to fall, a trend that'll continue throughout Friday. A Winter Weather Advisory was considered to cover this burst of snow but ultimately decided against it given the timing & level of potential impacts forecast for this evening. That being said, there is still potential for impacts to the Friday morning commute so please plan accordingly.

The lull of snow ends around sunrise Friday morning as another burst of snow will move into the region. For those of us in the Twin Cities, southern MN, or western WI: temperatures Friday morning will be in the 20s and fall into the single digits by the afternoon. Wind chill temperatures will be in the single digits below zero to teens below zero Friday afternoon across the entire area. Please prepare for that cold push of Arctic air when getting ready to go to work or send the kids to school. Snow showers will continue throughout much of Friday. The subtle lift & saturated DGZ's on forecast soundings would support on and off snow showers under the CAA within the cyclonic flow of the ULL. There is potential for stronger snow showers that could lead to bursts of heavy snow & near-zero visibility. This will set the table for a stretch of hazardous winter weather, particularly in W & S MN, where the combination of 40-50 mph wind gusts & numerous snow showers & blowing snow will lead to low visibility and slick travel conditions. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued across W & S MN that goes into effect tonight at midnight through 6pm Friday evening. Friday's snow accumulations should be around an inch or so. There is fear that we'll see near-white out visibilities in those counties under a Winter Weather Advisory. If those conditions verify and/or are worse than forecast a short fuse upgrade could be warranted. Snow showers taper off Friday evening/night behind the Arctic front. Much colder air will settle in over the weekend with highs in the single digits and lows below zero. A brief warm up occurs Sunday with highs in the mid teens, but another quick moving clipper system is to thank. Current forecast would support the potential for another half inch to an inch of snow for Sunday's clipper and behind that will likely be up there for coldest air of the season. There will be potential for Cold Weather advisories this weekend into early next week given the very cold wind chill temperatures. Highs will struggle to warm above zero on Monday for example. The cold is here to stay with highs and lows below normal through the end of the forecast period & likely remainder of January. Additional clipper systems will move across the region that could bring additional light snow chances next week but there is no sign of any larger systems as the storm track remains suppressed just to the south.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Mainly mid-level ceilings to start, although MVFR ceilings are creeping into far western MN at initialization. KMPX radar does show some echoes in western WI but little to none of this is reaching the ground due to a deep layer of dry air that will be quite difficult to overcome. Thus, have held off mention of prevailing precipitation at all sites until late this afternoon into this evening when a stronger punch of precipitation and upper level forcing arrives. This will not only allow ceilings area-wide to reach MVFR levels but also to have MVFR-IFR light snow mainly late this afternoon into early this evening. After an overnight break, additional intermittent rounds of light snow will develop near sunrise and persist for much of the day Friday. Overall accumulations will be light, from around an inch at the MN TAF sites to 2-4" at the WI TAF sites. However, the bigger issues may come Friday when adding much stronger NW winds to what little additional snow comes, producing blowing snow and reduced visibility concerns. Much of this is still to be determined due to snow pack vs new snow and winds, but the potential is there for mainly western/southern MN to have persistent reduced vsby due to BLSN.

KMSP...Precip-free conditions are expected at MSP through the aftn-eve push, though ceilings will steadily drop as the rest of the daylight hours progress. Precip is expected during the early hours, which looks more likely to devolve into a several-hour punch of IFR-worthy visibility/intensity for the latter half of the evening. Behind it, dry conditions will resume but with much stronger NW winds, which will persist through the day Friday, Additional intermittent snow showers are possible for much of the day Friday, with visibility only as far down as MVFR, but the wind with even lightly falling snow may result in degraded conditions throughout the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR likely. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SUN...VFR likely. Chc MVFR/-SHSN. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts becoming NW. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault- Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens- Swift-Todd-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.