textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of wintry mix late this evening into Monday morning. Minor ice and snow accumulations are possible.

- Mild temperatures and weak disturbances with low predictability are in store over the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Aside from some cirrus streaming overhead this afternoon, it's been a pleasant day with decent warming - especially in nearly snow-free areas. Temperatures range from the lower 20s in Wisconsin to lower 40s across parts of southwest Minnesota with another hour or so of warming to go. Clouds will continue increasing this evening and a band of isentropically-forced precipitation will begin breaking out across western Minnesota around midnight, then track east overnight to Wisconsin early Monday morning. The lower levels of the atmosphere will be quite dry initially and warm. As the isentropic lift increases and the band becomes healthier, precipitation will cool the lower atmosphere and should reach the ground at least briefly before ending. Models generally favor freezing rain across Minnesota (except in the southwest where surface temps may remain at or above freezing). However, wetbulb temperatures aloft per forecast soundings also hint at sleet. Therefore, continuing with chances for freezing rain and sleet. Unless the band becomes quite healthy, which is a low end probability, then some snow is also possible. In Wisconsin, thermal profiles are a bit cooler so snow chances are higher. Some sleet may also mix in if wetbulb temps hover near freezing, which has been the trend today. A few models aside, QPF looks really light. Perhaps around a tenth in Wisconsin as snow, but less than 0.05" in Minnesota as sleet and freezing rain. Such light amounts are not likely to have significant impacts, and if the band remains weak, it may be hard to get much precipitation down to the surface level at all. Issued an SPS to highlight the potential for a few slick spots for the morning commute. Didn't feel this event rises to the level of an advisory yet with confidence of widespread impacts being low. That may change this evening or overnight though with evolving trends.

A highly anomalous mid level ridge parked over the northern Gulf Coast will lead to mild and even warm conditions across much of the center of the country this week. Despite 850 mb temp anomalies of around +20C across the Upper Midwest on Christmas Day, lingering snow pack will moderate how much we can warm. Further, the low level inversion that results will likely lead to widespread low clouds and perhaps fog which would further reduce the chance to warm substantially. That may be a different story across southwest MN where a lack of snow combined with deeper mixing and sunshine may bring low 50s for highs.

Generally, the pattern will feature a lot of weak disturbances across the northern CONUS stemming from the atmospheric rivers on the west coast. These have little predictability in the medium and long ranges. However, a more substantial wave could eject northeast from the Rockies Christmas Day into Friday. The degree of warm air aloft will likely mean low snow chances and either rain or freezing rain as the preferred p-type depending on surface temp. As the system passes, cooler air will spill in behind it along with a the potential for a few snow showers.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1055 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Very few changes to the ongoing thinking from the 00z TAF set. VFR to start with the anticipation that a swath of wintry precipitation will move across the region roughly in the midnight-sunrise timeframe. Have kept the PROB30s confined to the westernmost TAF sites (AXN and RWF), with TEMPOs going eastward. Still looking for a primarily 3-4hr window of mainly FZRA with either PL or SN mixed in (better chances for SN in western WI with icy precip in central-southern MN). Liquid totals are only expected to run between a trace to a tenth of an inch, with icing only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch while snow may range from a dusting to a half inch. Precip will end over the MN TAF sites just prior to or near sunrise, with the precip extending another hour or so beyond sunrise. Fairly quick clearing is then expected for the rest of the day Monday. Winds to remain SE throughout with speeds under 10kts.

KMSP...VFR into the early morning hours, then mid-level ceilings will move into the region. Still have the TEMPO 08z-12z for a light mixture of sleet/freezing rain. Precip looks to continue into the morning push, then exit to the east after sunrise with VFR conditions thereafter. A thin glaze of ice and minor slushy sleet accumulations will be possible ending near the start of the morning push. The rest of tomorrow will be quiet with light southeasterly flow turning light/variable Monday evening then westerly prior to sunrise Monday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.