textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue into this evening. One or two stronger storms across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin may produce some hail.

- A stretch of cooler and drier weather arrives Tuesday through early next weekend. A few mornings will see lows near freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Light to moderate rain is ongoing across most of the CWA early this afternoon. A majority of our MN counties have seen at least 0.5" of rain so far, with southern to central MN receiving generally over an inch. St. James has currently the highest rainfall report at 2.2". This activity stems from a maturing surface low currently over northern IA. The low will continue north-northeast, lifting the precipitation shield and a warm front in tandem. CAMs show rain continuing across central MN and western WI through this afternoon while southeastern MN should experience a brief break from the rain. Current satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds over northern IA and these clearer skies will translate into southeastern MN this afternoon. If some heating and destabilization can occur, a couple of thunderstorms could form within this region ahead of the sweeping cold front. These storms would then travel northeast through portions of west-central WI by early this evening. Severe-wise, the environment looks pretty lack-luster. CAPE will only be on the order of about 500 J/kg with wind shear ranging from 25-35 knots. Lapse rates also look very poor/moist adiabatic, so odds of a damaging wind gust or a large hailstone are very low.

Rain will end from southwest to northeast starting late this afternoon and lasting into tonight as the surface low travels over Lake Superior. Much of the area should see at least another 0.25" of rain through tonight with eastern MN and west-central WI having the best chance of seeing 0.5-0.75". Localized areas within this region could approach 1" if a thunderstorm can occur. As we dry out tonight, gusty northwesterly winds will drag cooler air following the system. Winds will gust to 30-40 MPH tonight across western and central MN due to the enhanced pressure gradient. Lows tonight across western and central MN will actually dip into the lower to mid 30s. Winds will slowly decrease throughout Tuesday as the surface low continues to move away.

Tuesday through the end of the work week looks relatively quiet precipitation-wise. We switch to northwesterly upper-level flow through at least next weekend, which favors cooler and mostly drier air. Did add a mention of rain showers Tuesday night along the MN/IA border and near EAU with a subtle shortwave passing through the Central Plains. Another wave could bring some light rain to portions of western and central MN Wednesday thru Wednesday night. Temperatures will stay on the cooler side through Friday with highs generally in the 50s while lows are in the 30s. Given vegetation is greening up, frost/freeze headlines will probably be needed soon as at least a portion of our forecast area flirts with the freezing mark each night. A warm up doesn't look possible until this weekend when WAA occurs ahead of some southward diving shortwaves. But don't expect any major pattern changes soon as long-range ensembles show the upper-level pattern remaining pretty blocked and stagnant through at least the first week of May.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 705 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Ongoing -SHRA will gradually taper off from southwest to northeast this evening. Generally a mix of IFR/MVFR with a couple locations with gradual improvement to VFR expected as SHRA exit the region. By mid morning, all sites will be back to VFR with FEW250 as skies clear within a cold air advection regime behind the departing sfc low. Winds remain elevated throughout the TAF. Northwest winds will persist 15G25kts. Winds gradually diminish by the end of the TAF period Tuesday afternoon, but sporadic gusts in the 20-22kt range are still expected.

KMSP... Sporadic drizzle will persist for the next hour or so before drier air begins to wrap into the area. I've added a TEMPO group for IFR cigs. Cigs will gradually improve overnight with a return to VFR by daybreak.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.