textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers & thunderstorms tonight. A few could become strong to severe storms from far-southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The overall risk has decreased.

- Seasonably cool & dry midweek. Rain chances return at the start of Memorial Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

All is quiet to start the day as the surface low pressure sits almost directly over the Twin Cities. Widespread stratus and patchy fog spread out on the north and west side of the low, limiting temperatures from warming this afternoon. The cold front is essentially draped along the I-35 corridor south of the Twin Cities, while the warm front extends east from the Twin Cities slightly north of I-94. Expect scattered showers to develop across the Central Plains this afternoon, and spread north into MN and WI through the evening. The heaviest rainfall and best chance for thunder will be around 8pm to 12am. The best environment for thunder, and potentially a strong to severe storm, will be in that warm sector east of the cold front and south of the warm front (i.e. east of I-35 and south of I-94). Overall the threat has decreased due to limited instability (noted by the 1630z update to the SPC Day 1 SWO). The main threat will be large hail and strong winds, as well as localized flash flooding anywhere that thunderstorms train for several hours.

Light rain will wrap up Tuesday morning as the upper level wave pushes east. At the surface, breezy northwest winds will develop and strong CAA will keep temperatures about 10-15 degrees below normal. Additional showers may develop as the cold air advects in, though saturation will be very limited throughout the profile.

Mostly quiet weather will persist until this weekend as a shortwave develops over the Northern Plains. This will provide us with a few chances for rain, though ensemble QPF is mostly around a few tenths and in the range of a normal rain event for this time of year. In other words, Memorial day weekend will have occasional rain, but nothing to change plans over at this time. Temperatures will also be gradually rising throughout the week, peaking on Monday with widespread highs in the 80s possible.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Low stratus, MVFR-to-IFR, expected to prevail throughout much of this TAF period. The next round of showers with some embedded TSRA is expected through late this evening/early overnight hours. Visibilities will drop to as low as IFR, particularly if heavy downpours cross over any given site. Precipitation is expected to end overnight to just before dawn Tuesday morning, followed by a slow gradual rise in ceilings throughout the day. Winds will remain northwest throughout the period, with speeds around 10kts during this evening, increasing to near 15G25kts late overnight through the day Tuesday.

KMSP... Rain showers shifting NE from southern MN into western WI. MVFR to IFE ceilings to continue, with visibilities potentially into IFR range should heavier downpours move across MSP. As the precip winds down overnight, IFR ceilings will continue but NW winds will increase to near 15G25kts. Cigs return to MVFR mid-morning and nearing VFR by end of TAF Tuesday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts, shifting to SE. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.