textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical-like airmass settles in through Wednesday. This will lead to the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms through mid-week.

- Highs in the low 90s are likely for Tuesday and Wednesday. - Increasing likelihood for severe weather Wednesday afternoon & evening with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The regional radar mosaic highlights two areas of activity. The first is the scattered showers across MN and WI that will continue to lift north. The second area of concern is the decaying MCS moving across the eastern Dakotas toward western MN. It will continue to decay as it approaches W MN as it moves into a less favorable environment. Showers are likely for west- central MN through late morning. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across western and central MN this afternoon. The remnant MCV from the MCS likely plays a role in what develops and where it happens but these storms remain sub-severe. The other area of precip will be associated with showers and thunderstorms that move through western WI today. Again, should remain sub-severe but may produce brief bouts of heavy rainfall. Temperatures remain mild with highs in the 70s and 80s today with plenty of humidity. This theme will continue through Wednesday when a potent cold front will move across the region.

Shower and thunderstorm chances look less favorable tonight other than the chance for isolated thunderstorms lingering across W MN. Aloft, there is excellent model agreement showing potent ridging amplifying across the central and eastern CONUS. This will set up a broad area of early season heat across the eastern half of CONUS. Wednesday's temperature forecast will be tricky as an expansive area of precipitation lifts through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Temperatures should recover with strong warm air advection ahead of the cold front. So Tuesday should be the warmest day as it stays mostly dry. This will allow highs to warm into the lower 90s across much of the region with apparent temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. This should remain below extreme heat headline concerns. There will be the potential of severe weather Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. A strong low level jet (50+ kts) will shift toward MN overnight. This will allow for a band of thunderstorms to develop and lift northeast from SW MN through the Twin Cities and into N WI/NE MN by Wednesday mid-morning. Any severe storms associated with this convection will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy rain. It wouldn't surprise me to see an MCS or two in this regime. SPC did maintain their Slight risk (2 of 5) for W MN.

The potential for extreme heat doesn't look as favorable Wednesday Sfc dew points will push into the mid 70s with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s still likely. This will place a highly unstable atmosphere in place ahead of a potent cold front. The greatest chance to see 100+F apparent temperatures will be across western Wisconsin given their longer duration in the warm sector Wednesday afternoon. Highs top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s but the surface dew points will likely be in the lower 70s. This will lead to a broad area of strong instability across the Upper Midwest by Wednesday afternoon. Low level flow out of the south will be strong enough to replenish instability by Wednesday afternoon, setting the stage potentially for numerous severe thunderstorms. SPC day 3 highlights the entire area for severe concern with a broad area of Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. All severe hazards will be possible with any convection that develops. The latest guidance would support a possible expansion of the enhanced to the north into N WI and northwest into the MN Arrowhead in a future update. The Twin Cities will likely see storms develop just west of the Metro meaning the worst of it should (key word) be to east, but timing will be dependent on the approaching cold front and associated wave. The cold frontal passage should provide enough forcing to break any capping in place with any initial convection quickly growing upscale into an MCS along the frontal boundary. The finer details will need time to iron out but Wednesday should prove a busy day across the region. Colder & drier air arrive Thursday and will stick around into next weekend. Precipitation chances trend down with highs back in the 70s and lower 80s. This will be a much needed break after a rather active week ahead. There is an increasing signal in guidance that a longer break from the oppressive heat and humidity as western NOAM ridging will induce troughing across eastern NOAM. Cooler than average temperatures in mid-June are still very pleasant.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Scattered -SHRA continues across portions of western and south- central MN and western WI. This activity will push north overnight, with redevelopment expected over WI after sunrise Monday and likely lasting well into Monday afternoon. Heaviest rainfall is expected at EAU where visibilities will drop to 5sm. Over western MN (AXN), 2 rounds of -TSRA are possible this morning and again this afternoon. However, lacking confidence to anything more than PROB30s for each. Cigs will fall to MVFR/IFR early this morning and likely remain there into Monday afternoon before slow improvement to VFR occurs. EAU is the only terminal that should remain IFR the rest of the period due to high low- level moisture. Southeasterly winds near 10 knots tonight will gradually slow to near or under 5 knots Monday evening.

KMSP...-SHRA expected overnight but impacts look minimal. Cigs will fall to MVFR near 08z and then IFR by 11z. Expect clouds to slowly break apart and rise to VFR towards mid-Monday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR, bcmg MVFR w/TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts. THU...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.