textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog this morning and tomorrow morning.

- Much above normal temperatures to continue into early next week.

- Widespread rain expected on Friday with evening thunderstorms possible and a transition to snow Friday night into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Fog Chances... Clear skies and light winds have allowed for radiational cooling down to the dew points. This low level saturation at the surface has allowed for and will continue to support the fog. This fog will continue through the morning until temperatures start to rise and the lower atmosphere is no longer saturated. For this reason a Dense Fog Advisory is out across much of western and southern Minnesota this morning. A similar setup will occur tonight into tomorrow morning. Once we are certain how widespread dense fog will be tonight into tomorrow morning another Dense Fog Advisory may be needed.

Temperatures... Today through Friday temperatures will continue to be much above normal, generally in the 50s supported by ample WAA. This warm air will continue to dominate until we get to the backside of our next system on Saturday. This brief break into cooler air will drop temperatures in the 40s for highs, which is still above normal (mid 30s are normal) for this time of year. This cooler air doesn't stay long with WAA returning Sunday into early next week. Ensemble data and the NBM both suggest this will be the warmest period over the next week with some guidance up around 70 for a high on Monday! The late spring preview doesn't last though and a return of a more prolonged CAA period brings us back down towards more normal early March temperatures with highs in the 30s by the middle of next week.

Precipitation... There are two main systems to keep an eye on and based on the temperature discussion above you can probably guess when they are. Friday into early Saturday and the middle of next week, lining up exactly when there are cool downs in the forecasted warmth. The first system will be driven by a surface low tracking right through the center of the Upper Midwest. This is a classic March/April early Spring system. These early Spring systems bring warm moist air from the Gulf up into the Midwest on their warm side with widespread rain and often thunderstorms. Then with cold air from Canada on the backside often have a wrap around that is snow. This first system based on the evolution shown in the deterministic guidance suggests it will follow this archetype. So widespread rain and some thunderstorms possible on Friday followed by a transition to snow on the backside Saturday morning as the cooler air moves in. The main questions at this time are how much instability can build for thunderstorms and how fast does the snow transition occur on Saturday? This will determine if there is a risk for our first chance of severe storms and how much snow we can get. The instability in forecast soundings appears to be largely elevated, so surface based storms are not expected. Therefore, if we were to get severe weather hail would be the most likely of the main severe threats. On the snow side, how quickly we cool down will be the key factor. With how warm we are heading into this event snowpack will be melted and ground will have started to warm. Doubtful the ground will be able to warm enough to case significant melting yet, so not considering that in the forecast. Based on the timing of the temperatures best chance to accumulate snow will be in west central Minnesota where the residence time of the below freezing temperatures is longer thus increasing the chance for accumulating snow. Still looks short enough that we'd be talking up to around an inch. For the system moving through the middle of next week the track looks farther south which could keep us on the cooler side with better snow chances. So enjoy this false spring cause winter will be coming back in about a week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 523 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Fog is the main aviation impact over this TAF period. LIFR to VFR present across the terminals. Mostly LIFR to IFR across Minnesota terminals with EAU the only one staying clear in VFR. This is all caused from widespread radiation fog this morning. As temperatures warm after sunrise this fog will dissipate and VFR will hold for the entire day. As temperatures begin to fall again tonight this same pattern will repeat.

KMSP...LIFR to start the period rising into MVFR and eventually VFR later this morning as the fog lifts after sunrise. Expect another round of fog again tonight. Not yet certain how dense the fog will be tonight, will refine the density of tomorrow morning's fog in future TAFs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU PM...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. FRI...MVFR -RA BR. Wind SE 10-15 kts, bcmg N late. SAT...MVFR/IFR -RA/SN early. VFR PM. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for Chippewa- Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-Pope-Redwood- Renville-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Nicollet- Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca- Washington-Watonwan-Wright. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Pierce- Polk-St. Croix.