textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday into early Saturday with continued cooler than normal temperatures.

- The second half of Memorial Day weekend through next week is still on track to see above normal temperatures with mainly dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

It's another cool mid May day with patchy cloud cover across the region. Some light returns have shown up on radar, but with a dry airmass still in place, precip is not reaching the ground. A quick look at surface obs shows you where the bigger gaps in the cloud cover have persisted today with temperatures pushing 70. Central and southern Minnesota have seen the bulk of the cloud cover, with temperatures struggling to get out of the upper 50s/low 60s. Aloft, a trough will continue to dig in across the western Dakotas with a surface low taking shape over Nebraska/Wyoming. This feature will slide northeast through the day tomorrow, bringing scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder through early Saturday. Models suggest that it will still take a while to get the more favorable moisture into the eastern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, so rain chances don't really increase until late Friday afternoon. Western Minnesota is still on track to be the big winner when it comes to QPF amounts, which have increased slightly from 24 hours ago. Totals are now running anywhere from 0.5 to 0.75" generally west of St. Cloud and Mankato, with around a tenth or two to the east. Western Wisconsin will largely miss out on any meaningful rainfall with drier air remaining in place through late Friday. As the low lifts across the North Dakota/Canadian border tomorrow night, we should dry out fairly quickly from west to east Saturday morning. Clouds may take a little longer to clear, but Saturday should at least be a little warmer and mostly dry.

The second half of the weekend into next week will be quite a bit warmer with highs in the mid 80s and dew points slowly creeping up into the upper 50s. Ridging still looks to hold through much of next week with only a few weak disturbances traversing the region. Ensemble guidance has a smattering of showers and thunderstorm chances throughout the end of the forecast period, but there does not appear to be any strong signals for widespread precip or severe weather.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR to start the period with drop into MVFR on Friday as rain showers move into the Upper Midwest. Some locations, like AXN could drop further into IFR late in the period. There could be some early day rain showers, better chances over western and southern Minnesota. The more widespread rain will be evening into Friday night across the region. Winds will be from the southeast through this TAF period with a shift coming after the end of these TAFs. Wind speeds will lighten tonight with speeds around 10 knots. They will pick back up tomorrow morning and continue through the rest of the period as the rain chances move in with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range. Thunderstorms are possible, but were not likely enough for inclusion in the TAF, even as a PROB30. This looks more like a rain shower event, with just a chance for some isolated thunder.

KMSP...Overnight thunderstorms to the southwest will be over Minnesota in the morning, we currently expect them to decay such that it won't impact MSP. However if they hold together better than currently expected some showers may need to be added in future TAF issuances. The better chance for rain arrives in the evening and it with this arrival we will see ceilings fall into MVFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/-SHRA early. Wind S 5-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.