textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures to remain above normal into mid-June, including highs near 90 early next week.

- Widespread rainfall expected late Wednesday through late Thursday, with additional chances of rain through the weekend.

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for Wednesday evening and Thursday afternoon-evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows an expansive area of high pressure centered over Hudson Bay spreading southward over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Out west, a surface low is becoming more organized over far southern Saskatchewan province along a cold frontal boundary extending NE into central Canada and SW over the Northern-Central Rockies. Aloft, an upper high is nearly atop the surface feature but a deeper H5 low sits over southwestern Saskatchewan province, aiding in the development of the surface low. Ridging continues to build just off the SoCal coast.

Today will be the most tranquil of the next 7 days as the ridging at the surface and aloft, although centered to the east of the Upper Midwest, will be the dominant weather features through tonight, keeping any systems to the west from making any progress eastward. However, these high pressure features will move south through tonight then slightly more eastward Wednesday. While this ridging moves slowly away from the WFO MPX coverage area, the southwest Canadian low pressure features at the surface and aloft will slowly shift nearly due east across the southern Canadian provinces, just north of the international border. In conjunction with these low pressure features, stronger mid-to-upper level jetting will develop which will not only aid in advecting appreciably higher levels of moisture but also simply divergence aloft by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Between the existing southern Canadian surface low and an additional surface low developing over western SD, the front linking the two will shift eastward across the Dakotas Wednesday.

Height falls aloft with low level convergence along the front will aid thunderstorm development and fairly widespread rainfall over the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon which is then expected to spread into MN/WI Wednesday night into Thursday. While the bulk of the stronger storms for the Day 2 period will occur over the Dakotas, including the potential there for discrete supercell development, more linear blending of storms will be more conducive of MCS development from the eastern Dakotas into western MN Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as stronger low-level nocturnal jetting develops. Moisture will be dragged into the Upper Midwest by both the deep low pressure system itself from the Pacific along with the S to SW flow aloft opening a pathway from the Gulf. As such, PoPs Wednesday night have increased to the 80s-90s percent.

Come Thursday, the surface low will be nudged to near KINL while its associated low aloft moves into southern Manitoba province, potentially far southwestern Ontario province. Multiple shortwave buckles are forecast within the relative WSW- WNW flow on the southern flank of the upper low. The trailing cold front from the surface feature will sit over northern- western MN into eastern SD, linking up with the low straggling behind in eastern WY. Plenty of moisture still over the region along with the low-level frontal convergence and continued divergence aloft with the aforementioned strong jetting will spell fairly widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest Thursday into Thursday night. There is also the continued risk of a few strong-severe thunderstorms near and in advance of the surface front across the region. Coverage uncertainty will cap PoPs in the 70s-80s, highest in southern MN into western WI. The front will have only very limited southward movement Thursday night into Friday, thus PoPs are still in the Likely category for Friday, particularly in the afternoon-evening hours owing to diurnal effects with heightened instability.

With the multiple periods of rainfall from late Wednesday through Friday, the QPF totals continue to add up. Thus, through those roughly 3 days of precipitation, widespread totals of around an inch of rainfall are looking more viable, with isolated pockets of heavier rain possible underneath heavier thunderstorm rainfall intensities.

The front finally sags south of the coverage area over the weekend, allowing for possibly some drying out time Saturday into Sunday. However, the front looks to lift back north as a warm front early next week. But, with that northward push of the warm front will come deep ridging formerly residing over the SW CONUS and now expected to push well north over the Rockies and into the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Upper Midwest Sunday through the first half of next week. The main impacts here will be more of an increase in temperatures than any great increase in precipitation chances. While temperatures have already been running close to 10 degrees above normal from late May into early June, the second week of June may well feature temperatures closer to 15 degrees above normal. The only aspect which may get in the way of that is the expected cloud/rain complications from later this week into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with only passing high cirrus today into this evening due to high pressure settling over the Great Lakes as our dominant weather feature. Light southeast winds at initialization, including near calm in far eastern MN into western WI, will increase to near 10kts after sunrise and become breezy/gusty over western MN this afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts. FRI...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.