textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries possible across western WI tonight.

- Warmer Monday, with 50s possible for locations in southwestern MN.

- Above normal temperatures persist for most of the work week. Keeping an eye on mid-week snow potential.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Relatively quiet weather continues across the Upper Midwest early this afternoon. A mid-level shortwave trough is advancing southeast through the Dakotas to the west and expansive surface high pressure is positioned over the Great Lakes to the east. The MPX forecast area is located within a pressure gradient between these two features, which has promoted breezy southeasterly flow. Satellite captures a blanket of mid to high level clouds north and east of the developing surface low. In addition, we've seen an uptick in radar echoes aloft across the region -- however, a wedge of dry low to mid level air is working against any precipitation reaching the surface. The trough/surface low will continue southeast tonight, though little precipitation is anticipated. Forcing looks baggy and not very well defined, so have opted to pull back on the mention of flurries for central MN and the western sliver of WI. Forecast soundings show a few hours of saturation in the DGZ aloft (~15k feet) across portions of western WI. Would tend to think the dry wedge below this layer will really limit much in the way of snowflakes reaching the surface, but did include a chance of flurries along and east of a line from northern Polk to eastern Pepin in collaboration with WFO's DLH & ARX. Otherwise, it will be a quiet and mostly cloudy night with only a little cooling thanks to continue SE flow.

Another quiet day of weather is on deck for Sunday, however changes will be in the air. The northern CONUS will be on the southern side of a more potent clipper that is progged to track from the southern Provinces into the northern Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. This evolution will support the eastward expansion of a thermal ridge across our forecast are to open the work week. We'll feel a slightly warmer day tomorrow, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s across eastern MN/western WI. Farther west, the advance of the thermal ridge will warm highs to nearly 40 degrees across southwestern MN. The more notable warm up will come on Monday, as 925mb T's of ~5 to 10C spread over south central MN. Confidence is low to medium on anticipated cloud coverage tied to the clipper that will be passing to the north/northeast heading into Monday morning. A baroclinic zone is forecast to setup across central MN, so am not confident that the warmest 925mb T's will advect north of I-94. Still, the operational NBM seemed a little on the cool side, so collaborated with neighbors to boost Monday's Max T grid towards the NBM 75th percentile. This produces a forecast with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across south/western MN, the low to mid 40s across south central MN and the TC Metro, and the upper 30s to near 40 north of I-94 in MN & WI. Most of the forecast area will remain dry Monday into Tuesday, however guidance has hinted at a bit of a wild card in the Monday PM timeframe for locations across central MN. Following the aforementioned clipper, a swift wave is forecast to ride zonal flow eastward across northern Plains into Monday afternoon. While not a consistent trend, there have been several deterministic solutions that produce a light band of fgen driven QPF across central MN Monday PM into early Tuesday. NBM was rather dry during this timeframe and felt that there was enough support from the physical models and the AIFS to include slight chance PoPs along and north of I-94. Given the thermal profile, light precipitation would likely start as liquid and may transition into a wintry p-type into the evening.

Forecast confidence begins to fall heading into the second half of the work week as guidance varies in the evolution of longwave troughing over the western CONUS. That being said, guidance does have support for a shortwave diving southeast within upper northwesterly flow across the northern CONUS in the Thursday timeframe. Associated surface low aims to track from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley along a remnant baroclinic zone. Conceptually, this supports a band of fgen driven precipitation (in this case mostly snow) to the northeast of the surface low. NBM's 30-40% PoPs late Wednesday into early Thursday support this idea, though will need to lock into a more persistent track/anticipated swath of precipitation before PoPs can increase. Ensembles support a continued trend of mild temperatures in the extended period, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s next weekend. It's too early to have any degree of confidence in any one precipitation solution from next weekend onward, however a more active southern stream reflected in the ensemble solution points towards a more active pattern heading into the second half of February.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1108 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR throughout the period, but ceilings will gradually decrease over the course of the period. Mid level cigs will then gradually lower to the low-VFR levels tonight through Sunday morning. Model guidance supports lower cigs Sunday morning but I tried to maintain low VFR vs MVFR cigs. Winds will remain generally SE throughout, with peak speeds upwards of 15G25kts during the afternoon hours, particularly in central and western MN. Winds will then drop off after sunset this evening, with speeds under 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts becoming SE. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming NE.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.