textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of thunderstorms moves northeastwards across Minnesota into western Wisconsin this morning. Strong winds & brief heavy downpours are likely.

- Another round of thunderstorms develops this afternoon & evening, primarily across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, & a few thunderstorms are all possible.

- Storms tonight will be slower moving, so a threat for heavy rain & flash flooding could develop tonight.

- Warm & muggy conditions continue into the weekend along with daily thunderstorm chances

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

ANother day & another overnight thunderstorm complex as we yet again watch a line of thunderstorms approach Minnesota & Iowa out of the central Plains. The high-end 70+ mph wind gusts potential does not look as likely with these storms compared to the ones last night, but we're still expecting another round of gusty winds up to 50-60 mph as they move northeastwards through the early morning hours. High-res models hint at some signs of the storms re-intensifying by mid-morning as they begin exiting eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin which could lead to an uptick in the threat for severe winds as well as hail.

It will take until mid to late morning for the thunderstorms to fully clear the area off to our east, so there is still some uncertainty on just how unstable the atmosphere will become thy the late afternoon when our expected round 2 of thunderstorms is expected to begin. The uncertainty lies more with just how far north we may see this second round of storms developing, as we should have sufficing instability for re-initiation given the warm & muggy conditions. Nearly every high- resolution model initiates storms somewhere across the region by 5-6 PM, with a generally consensus favoring southern Minnesota through western Wisconsin into the evening. This is a southwards shift of sorts from yesterdays forecasts & outlooks, & we'll need to continue to monitor the mesoscale trends for further refinement as we get into the afternoon.

All modes of severe weather appear possible with the thunderstorms later today given instability of at least 2000 J/kg (more like 3000 J/kg across southern MN) along with seasonable high shear values of 35-40 kts. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threats, but large hail & a few tornadoes are also possible with CAMS suggesting a few rotating storms present at least early in the event during the afternoon & early evening. The threat for heavy rain & localized flash-flooding is also higher with the storms tonight compared to the last few days since these storms will be slower-moving & carry a risk for training as thunderstorm re-gnerate along a slow-moving front. High-resolutaion models generally place the most extreme threat for 5"+ rainfall totals south of our area across Iowa, but there's enough of a signal present across our area to expect isolated amounts of 3-4" across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The heavy rain threat will continue into the overnight hours while the intensity of the storms & severe weather threat generally wanes by 10 PM-midnight. Thunderstorms eventually move off to the east through the early morning hours.

Looking ahead - it'll be more of the same through the holiday weekend with muggy conditions & multiple chances for thunderstorms, including a severe thunderstorm & heavy rain threat. Details are heard to come by given the nature of the subtle waves generating these thunderstorm complexes, & the role any boundaries or remnant circulations left over by the, have on thunderstorm chances during the afternoon. Warm & muggy conditions will continue but the threat for excessive heat generally appears to be low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions expected through most of the overnight hours with light winds and skies FEW-SCT at 25 kft. A cluster of SHRA/TSRA currently over central Nebraska will continue to move NE during the overnight hours. Current high res model guidance has this cluster of SHRA/TSRA getting into MN by 09z with impacts to MKT and RWF by 10z with IFR to LIFR flight conditions possible. The cluster of SHRA/TSRA will continue to lift NE through the morning, reaching MSP, STC, AXN by 11z with IFR to LIFR flight conditions possible, then RNH and EAU by 12z to 13z timeframe. TEMPO groups remain in TAF for visibilities down to 2-4 SM from TSRA. After the cluster of TSRA progresses eastward by 13z, SHRA will remain possible through the morning. Flight conditions will become VFR by mid to late morning with SCT-BKN at 5-10 kft.

Another round of SHRA/TSRA possible during the late afternoon and evening hours. For now, PROB30s are in the TAFs alluding to that. At this time confidence is still a bit low with direct impacts to terminals, but still something that will be monitored through the day.

KMSP...VFR conditions through the overnight hours. Prevailing showers remain in the TAF at 11z, but kept VFR flight category with TEMPO for IFR conditions from 11z to 13z. We will see if I can narrow that window down by 9Z TAF AMD. Winds light AOB 5 knots through the overnight with S/SW through the morning and afternoon hours with gusts up to 20 knots during the PM. Another round of TS late afternoon and evening timing. However, confidence remains low as the high res model guidance has a wide range of solutions. Hence the PROB30 in this TAF issuance.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Chc PM MVFR/-TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Winds VRB 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Winds E 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.