textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mix of rain & snow likely tonight along the US-Canada border. Slushy accumulations under 1" possible.

- Light wintry mix of rain & snow possible Tuesday night through Wednesday morning across northern & central Minnesota/Wisconsin.

- Up & down temperature trends through this week & the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Forecast Discussion for Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin: --------------------------------------------------------

Cool today with Canadian high pressure centered over the region, but temperatures remain right around late March normals with temperatures this afternoon generally in the upper 30s to low 40s. A weak disturbance skirting along the the US-Canada border will generate alight wintry mix of rain & snow across far- northern Minnesota tonight, although very dry air in the lowest 5000+ ft of the atmosphere will result in just sprinkles, if anything, farther south across the rest of MN & northern WI. A slushy dusting of snow is possible along the US-Canada border, but more rain is likely vs snow.

Temperatures continue their warming trend Tuesday through Wednesday as pronounced ridging returns to the southwestern US & builds north into the central CONUS. Ensemble guidance highlights temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees above normal by Wednesday with highs generally in the 40s-50s across northern Minnesota & Wisconsin, but warming into the 60s across central & southern Minnesota. Temperatures could even reach the low 70s across southwest Minnesota if warm downsloping flow off of the Buffalo ridge is maximized.

The ridging becomes suppressed Wednesday into Thursday as a 150+ kts jetstreak begins developing along the northern tier of the CONUS, allowing another intrusion of cold Canadian high pressure into the region Thursday through Friday. A swath of light precipitation is expected along a cold front moving through the region Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Another wintry mix of light rain & snow is possible across northern & central Minnesota & northern Wisconsin during the overnight & early morning hours, but again any snow accumulation should be limited to a slushy dusting. Only expecting to see temperatures on the order of 5-10 degrees below normal behind the frontal passage Thursday afternoon & Friday.

Temperatures rise again this weekend, but especially into next week as strong ridging builds yet again from the southwest US into the central CONUS. No precipitation is expected through the weekend as the broad Canadian high pressure moves over the region into the southeastern US, blocking the flow of any moisture into the region. A pleasant early-Spring weekend looks in store with sunny skies & above-nromal temperatures in the 40s to 50s across northern Minnesota & 50s-60s across central & southern Minnesota. deterministic & ensemble guidance show the weather pattern becoming much more active beyond the middle of next week as general troughing replaces the strong ridging over the central CONUS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 552 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period with increasing mid- level clouds to start the evening. A few sprinkles are possible with the cloud cover tonight, though a layer of dry air near the surface should limit how much actually reaches the ground. S/SW winds weaken overnight, generally staying at or below 8 kts. Marginal LLWS is possible between 04z to 12z.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb. THU...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind N 10-20G30 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.