textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scatted thunderstorms are forecast through 9PM/10PM this evening. A few thunderstorms could become strong to severe with the main threats being heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and a few instances of hail up to 1 inch.

- Quiet and warm weather is expected Sunday through at least Monday night. The next best chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives late Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

19Z satellite shows partly cloudy skies across central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A muggy afternoon and evening is expected with temperatures continuing to warm into the 80s and dew points rising into the upper 60s and 70s. The muggy conditions will also allow the atmosphere to continue to destabilize with SBCAPE values peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range this afternoon. This instability combined with a weak passing overhead disturbance will support some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. However, expect thunderstorms to be more pulse-like due to rather weak 0-6km shear values around 20 kts at best, mid-level lapse rates around 6.4 C/km, DCAPE values of 800 to 900 J/kg, and overall weak ascent. Should a thunderstorm be able to last long enough to become strong to severe, the threat looks to be gusty winds and instances of hail up to 1 inch. Periods of heavy rainfall are also possible with PWATs right around 1.5-1.6 inches. Because of the over pulse-like nature of thunderstorms, it will be difficult to pin point exactly where they will develop. That being said, the greatest coverage, timing, and chances (up to 60%) of thunderstorms looks to be across central Minnesota through 6PM. This is due to being in closer proximity to better upper-level support. There is generally a 30% to 40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm across Minnesota and western Wisconsin through 9PM/10PM this evening. Chances quickly decrease after sunset but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for southern portions through 2AM.

Upper-level flow is forecast to be more northerly on Sunday as a ridge begins to build into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This means that height rises aloft will suppress most convection chances to close out the holiday weekend. That being said, a stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours cannot be ruled out for far southeastern Minnesota. Chances of this occurring are only around 15% at best. There is a reasonable amount of consensus that the positively aligned ridge axis will move over the area on Monday. So Monday's forecast calls for a warm day with highs in the mid 80s and mostly sunny skies. By Monday evening, shower and thunderstorm chances return as a weak shortwave traverses the area. Because the wave passes over later in the day/closer to sunset, overall coverage is forecast to be on the lower end. If the shortwave traverses the area earlier in the afternoon and around peak heating on Monday, more areas could see showers and thunderstorms.

A more potent shortwave and an associated front looks to approach the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This is currently the next best chance (60% to 70%) for showers and thunderstorms across the area. For Thursday and Friday, a largely zonal pattern looks to set up with embedded shortwaves passing through. There is a reasonable amount of uncertainty on timing and strength of the shortwaves which will influence the shower and thunderstorm chances to end the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the general area of KAXN between 20Z and 21Z. Convection then shifts to the south and east through 04Z Sunday. Isolated thunderstorm development could occur near KMKT until 08Z. All thunderstorm potential is reflected as PROB30 groups at this time due to 30 percent confidence in direct impacts to any given terminal. If a terminal does see rain this afternoon and evening and clouds clear out overnight, low cloud/fog development is possible. There is some uncertainty in how dense any fog/low cloud cover will be so went with a FEW010 or SCT010 group at this time.

KMSP...Thunderstorm chances have continued to trend later, with the greatest potential at KMSP between 00Z and 04Z Sunday. If there is rain at or in the area this evening and clouds clear out fast enough, there is potential for fog/low cloud development in the 10Z to 16Z timeframe Sunday morning. Confidence in how dense any fog/low cloud cover will be is rather low at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, with low MVFR potential in morning. Winds N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Winds SE 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Chc TS overnight. Winds SW 5-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.