textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain arrives Monday, but forecast rain amounts continue to trend lower.

- A cooler pattern has arrived with highs in the 60s to low 70s through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue across western WI early this morning ahead of a wavy cold front located from around Lake Mille Lacs southward to Buffalo and Hutchinson to St. James. Cooler and drier air is slowly filtering into western MN, along with clearing skies. Some wind gusts are noted in the CAA regime but they are still relatively light. Winds will ease throughout the day as a high pressure ridge axis builds in making for a pleasant day as temperatures climb into the 70s.

A short wave will rotate southeast across MN into WI Sunday. This may bring a chance of showers across southern MN into IA and SD, but dry high pressure to the north will limit the northern extent of any precip. The high will slide east to the Great Lakes Sunday night and warm air advection will begin across the Upper Midwest as a potent trough advances into the northern Plains. Very strong moisture advection will be brought on by a 55 kt LLJ Monday and pwats are expected to increase to just short of 2 inches. Isentropic lift will allow widespread showers to develop across the region, but the trough will swing through quickly and limit the residence time of the activity. In addition, the surface warm front will remain well to the south across southwestern IA and keep the more efficient thunderstorms anchored there. Models continue to trend down on QPF, ranging from a GEFS mean around a 1/3 inch on the low side to 1/2-3/4 inch with most of the other ensemble systems. Given the lift and moisture in place, thinking at least a half inch is probable. If heavier rates sustain themselves for a little while longer then we'll see numbers closer to an inch. A front will drape itself from northern WI to southeast MN and northwest IA Monday night. The entrance region of the LLJ will strengthen across IA and impinge on the front allowing for another round of showers and storms to develop along it before sliding southeast Tuesday. The highest QPF will be found in this corridor with 1-2 inches expected.

For the rest of next week, zonal flow will continue with mid level ridging remaining anchored in place across the south. A nearly stationary front will draped from the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley and will keep the hot and humid air well to the south. It will also act as a focus for numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms. At this time the odds of being under the influence of dry high pressure outweigh the prospects of any significant rain associated with the front for us. Seasonably cool air will remain in place until further notice with highs in the 60s and low 70s and lows in the 40s or 50s. Some 30s are possible across northern MN and northern/central WI at times.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions throught the period. Breezy northwest winds continue through the afternoon at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Skies remain FEW to SCT at 25 kft, becoming BKN to OVC this evening and overnight, lasting through the morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/MON... MON...-SHRA/MVFR likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 10-15G30kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-15kts. WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA PM. Wind E 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.