textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, some chance for severe with marginal (1 of 5) risks.

- Generally near normal temperatures over the next week, but slightly warmer than normal on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Similar today to what we experienced yesterday with high pressure still present over the Upper Midwest. More diurnal cumulus as well as the atmosphere has heated, but lighter winds aloft have preventing a repeat of yesterday's gusty winds. Tonight will also be similar to last night with ample radiational cooling and some patchy fog in the cooler locations. The high moving out and a shift in the pattern will make this cooler area mainly across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. For western Minnesota, there has been a shift in the rain chances for tonight with most of the rain now most likely to stay south/west of the Minnesota River Valley and be kept within southwest Minnesota and areas farther to the southwest. Maybe parts of Martin County could see rain, but overall we look to miss out on this round.

Monday and Tuesday will be driven by the shortwave moving across the Canadian Prairies with the fronts associated with it moving across the Upper Midwest. There will be a warming trend Monday and Tuesday as warm air advection associated with the circulation around this system occurs. This will come to an end as the cold frontal passage occurs, most likely in the later half of Tuesday. We could see some storms occur the later half of Monday into Tuesday morning associated more with the warm air advection and warm front with the support of a jet streak. Any severe chances here would be more in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, but some chances extend further south into west central Minnesota as shown by the SPC marginal (1 of 5) risk. The better chance for some more widespread rain and storm chances will be the cold frontal passage later in the day on Tuesday. The main questions here will be familiar if you have been reading discussions over the past few days: timing of the frontal passage and moisture. If we had more moisture present this could easily be a fairly widespread event, but that still is a limiting factor in not just global ensemble solutions, but now CAMs as well. On the timing side it will be locations with frontal passage later in the day, as instability is able to build some, that could see convection come together. This should keep activity generally across eastern MN and western WI. With the questionable moisture rain will be very dependent on CI rather than the larger scale synoptic forcing of the front. So this will be the usual some winners and many losers with respect to the rain that we need. The rain deficit for the summer continues to grow with drought now across much of the broader region. Shear does not look great, so some doubt about higher end severe and sustained deep convection. This lines up with the SPC marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for areas along and east of I-35.

Cooler air moves in on Wednesday behind the cold front, with temperatures still near normal. Rain chances related to some lift closer to the surface low will generally stay to our north across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday. Thursday into Friday morning higher pressure moves in with quiet weather and near normal temps. Late Friday into the next weekend is when our next system moves in. Differences between both the deterministic global models and their ensemble systems still have NBM PoPs spread out over this period. This should start to cluster more as it approaches to get a better idea of when this next system is most likely to occur.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Satellite captures another afternoon of blossoming Cu across eastern MN and western WI, so have increased to SCT-BKN coverage at MSP/STC/RNH/EAU. Winds are much less intense than yesterday afternoon. Showers and a few storms are forecast to develop across the eastern Dakotas overnight, however there is strong agreement that precipitation will remain west of AXN & RWF. VFR high clouds (10k+ feet) associated with the convection will overspread the region from west to east heading into Monday morning. Patchy ground fog between 11-13z appears possible at RNH/EAU and a TEMPO for brief visibility reductions may be needed in a forthcoming TAF issuance. Winds turn southeasterly by daybreak at all sites.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.