textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely today and this evening. More showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, especially north of I-94. Additional chances this weekend and late Monday.

- Cooler than average temperatures continue this week, then the pattern flips next week with a potentially prolonged period of hot and humid conditions into July.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A weak low pressure center over northwest ND will progress southeast to MN today. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across central ND and southwestern SD. Moisture will increase this morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Showers and storms will reach MN by mid to late morning, then spread east through the day. Lapse rates remain suboptimal in the 6.5-7C/km range across western MN during the afternoon. Preceding clouds and showers will keep the boundary layer cool and stable. Some better CAPE will exist in the mid levels and deep layer shear of around 40 kts may organize a few storms enough to produce hail this afternoon.

Cyclonic flow will continue shower and thunderstorm chances into Wednesday, especially north of I-94. Coverage will be highest in WI and northern and central MN where the boundary layer will remain moist with CAPE up to 500 J/kg. Across southern and western MN, profiles are drier with an inversion around 700 mb which should keep any activity isolated, if any develops at all.

By Friday and Saturday, a large trough develops across the western U.S. while a ridge builds over the southeast. The resultant southwest flow aloft should bring a more active pattern with ample moisture streaming north from the Gulf. Shortwaves embedded within the southwest mid level flow will spark thunderstorm chances across the central U.S., likely remaining tied to a warm front. The warm front should begin to approach Saturday night, which appears to be our best shot at convection.

The pattern changes dramatically next week. The warm front may lift north through the area as early as Sunday. A stout EML and very warm temperatures aloft (+15C or warmer at 700 mb) will essentially provide an impossible cap to break in the warm sector Sunday afternoon into Monday. PoPs may need to be reduced in coming forecasts, but for now it accounts for some uncertainty with the timing of the front. Depending on the timing of said front, highs Sunday may reach the lower 90s across southern MN. By Monday, thermal ridging characterized by 925 mb temps of +28 to +30C may engulf much of central and southern MN and western WI. Highs in the mid 90s can be expected with this type of airmass. In addition, dew points will rise into the 70s and heat indices may top 100. A weakening cold front could be pushing into western MN by late Monday afternoon or Monday evening. The cap should ease as the EML weakens and rich theta-e air will provide a very unstable airmass. Severe thunderstorm development is possible well into Monday night.

The western trough will retreat north into Canada early week and ensembles indicate an impressive ridge will build across the central and eastern U.S., marking the beginning of what may be a prolonged period of hot and humid conditions into July. The ridge will retrograde westward later next week, centering over the Plains or MS Valley. A very hot and humid airmass will anchor itself in place as heights possibly surpass 597 dam. At this range, this could mean a ring of fire scenario with multiple severe episodes and/or hazardous heat for the Upper Midwest. Regardless how the details eventually reveal themselves, it is safe to say the weather pattern of the past couple weeks is coming to an end.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms will reach western MN mid to late morning and spread east through the rest of the day. MVFR conditions are possible at times in the precipitation. TS coverage should be low enough to continue with the PROB30s at most locations. Following the showers, there may be low clouds and fog tonight across central MN and western WI.

KMSP...Showers should begin to move in mid afternoon with the best chance for TS late afternoon and early evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.