textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather concerns increase heading into the weekend as a result of warming temperatures & strong southerly winds.

- Cooler early next week with the return of light precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

QUIET WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...Early afternoon upper-level analysis displays troughing over the Great Lakes and large scale ridging over the western CONUS. The Upper Midwest is placed between these two features within a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow (50+ knot 700mb winds), which mixes down as 20-30 mph surface gusts through the afternoon across central MN and western WI. Satellite reveals abundant sunshine over the forecast area and highs in the upper 60s (north) to mid 70s (south) are on track. Should also note that mixing of the air mass will result in afternoon dew points falling into the upper 30s, which yields minimum RH's between 25-35 percent. The combination of dry air and breezy northwest winds supports the mention of elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. High pressure expands southeastward tonight and will set the stage for another night in the 40s. Tranquil weather is on deck for Thursday, with slightly cooler highs in the upper 60s, light winds, and mid to high clouds increasing through the day.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY...Changes are on the way heading into the weekend as a strong mid-level low tracks across southern Canada Friday through Sunday. Friday serves as the transition day, with the potential for a few early day showers or a storm across far southern MN in association with the nocturnal LLJ (likely oriented to the southeast into eastern IA). We'll likely have a cloudy start to the day with mid-level WAA underway. Skies clear from south to north as the surface front surges north, which will result in widespread highs in the 70s Friday afternoon (warmest along I-90). The warmth really ramps up on Saturday as the surface pressure gradient tightens south and east of developing ~990s mb surface low set to exist over the Dakotas. In the mid-levels, a seasonably strong 50-55kt southwesterly jet will span from southwest to northeast across the forecast area, which supports the advection of an anomalously warm air mass characterized by 20-21C 850mb T's (which is a roughly 12-16C temperature anomaly for the start of the second week of October!). Widespread afternoon highs in the mid 80s are likely -- though the current forecast high of 85 at MSP would fall short of the daily record of 90 (1928) which also happens to be the latest 90 recorded in the Twin Cities. In addition to the warmth, the strong mid-level flow and mixing of the air mass will support a very windy day with sustained winds between 20-30 mph and gusts upwards up 40-45 mph. Despite modest moisture advection (dew points climbing back into the mid 50s by midday Saturday), the degree of surface heating will drop minimum afternoon RH's to between 30-35 percent, which combines with the strong southerly winds to support near critical fire weather conditions. Should temperatures warm more than forecast, the increase in the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) could result in a critical fire weather scenario developing. We have collaborated with neighboring offices to boost winds & lower Td's on Saturday to reflect our latest forecast thoughts.

COOLER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...By Sunday, the synoptic look is quite interesting over the eastern CONUS. The mid-level low responsible for our significant warm up will have translated east across Ontario/north of the Great Lakes. Regional attention will be on the northward advance of the remnants of T.S Isaias, which are progged to travel north into the Ohio Valley. With the mid-level low exiting to the east and tropical moisture progged to remain southeast of the Upper Midwest, Sunday should be another dry and warm day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. While still breezy at times, southwesterly winds will not be nearly as strong as Saturday. Still, with warm temperatures and breezy winds it's possible that elevated fire weather conditions persist through Sunday afternoon. The warmth ends as a strong cold front comes crashing south Sunday evening, turning the winds northwesterly and ushering in a much cooler air mass. High temperatures fall into the 50s/lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s for the first half of next week. Following a dry frontal passage, a quick hitting disturbance across the northern Plains will bring the potential for light rain on Monday, as represented by 30-50% PoPs from the latest NBM. Forecast confidence in precipitation trends drops after Monday, due to temporal uncertainties surrounding the evolution of tropical cyclone remnants set to interact with slow-moving western troughing early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR expected the entire period with broken mid-level clouds building in from west to east during Thursday morning. West- northwesterly winds will gust to 20-23 knots this afternoon across central MN and WI. Winds slow to near 5 knots this evening and turn more westerly from west to east during Thursday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU PM...VFR. Wind WSW 5 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 15-25G35kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.