textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Air Quality Alert for much of Minnesota until this evening.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms this evening into Monday.

- Tropical-like airmass settles in Monday. This will lead to the potential for several rounds of thunderstorms through mid- week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Current water vapor imagery showing the core of an upper-level low centered across E'rn Nebraska this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, a surface warm front that extends from Madison over to Rochester has produced dew points near 70 degrees with air temperatures upper 80s. Warm-advective showers and thunderstorms have developed along this boundary in southern MN and are expected to continue north- northwestward through this evening. Today's environment continues to advertise for sub-severe weather however, latest SPC mesoanalysis does feature a MUCAPE gradient over 2500 J/kg where the line of storms resides. So there is enough instability to get storms going along this front but luckily wind-shear lacks to maintain any rotating updrafts for producing large hail. Additionally, storms will be pulse-like and have frequent periods of intensification and weakening. The main hazard with these storms will be heavy rainfall. Southerly flow continues to pump in ample moisture to the northern plains. PWAT values exceeding 1.75" will support periods of torrential rainfall that could lead to localized areas seeing minor nuisance flooding, especially in low lying areas. This period of rainfall is expect to linger overnight into Monday with western MN clearing out by early morning, eastern MN by mid-morning, and then western WI by late afternoon. Storm total rainfall continues to range mainly between 0.25 to 0.75" although localized higher amounts are likely for those who see training heavy rain.

Tuesday, high pressure briefly returns with southerly flow continues to support a warm moist airmass in to the northern plains. Forecast high temperatures will range in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the upper 60s. This will result in heat indices to reach the mid to upper 90s which borderlines advisory criteria. One thing to note is that the NBM has been aggressively warm for the past few days. Therefore have blended in HiRes guidance to trend back heat indices that were previously exceeding 100 degrees. By Tuesday night, another chance of round of showers and thunderstorms proceeds an upper- trough that will move through the northern plains on Wednesday. Forecast QPF shifts its maxima this time mainly for northwestern MN into North Dakota however portions of central and southern MN could see another couple tenths of an inch of rainfall.

Now for Wednesday, there has been plenty of chatter about the increasing risk of severe thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. Warm and humid conditions are expected once again with temperatures in the lower 90s and dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The aforementioned upper-level trough continues eastward and does take a broad negatively-tilted shape. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across with higher confidence of supercells and bowing segments to occur across western MN and the Dakotas. However, there are a couple of things we do have to keep an eye on. One, is if the atmosphere recover from Tuesday night convection, and confidence in the forecast guidance. Two, is noting that the GFS, ECMWF, and CAN have all shifted the triple point farther east thus producing the strongest convection mainly in Wisconsin. Given that, still something worth monitoring early this week.

The rest of the forecast period features minor chances for rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures return to near-normal values with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 50s. Humidity will also retreat as dew points decrease back into the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

SHRA continues across southern and western MN, mainly southwest of a line from STC to MSP. Coverage of TS is diminishing as outflows and widespread showers stabilize the atmosphere. Embedded TS are possible through the overnight, but after mid to late evening probabilities are too low to mention in any of the TAFs after 03-04Z. Cigs will lower overnight to MVFR or IFR, which will be slow to rise Monday morning.

KMSP...Chc for TS is very low tonight. Occasional light showers will continue through early Monday morning. Cigs will lower overnight and may become IFR after 10Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR, bcmg MVFR w/TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts. THU...VFR. Wind W 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.