textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Up and down temperature trend continues through the forecast period. Warm tomorrow, cooler late week, then warmer for the weekend.

- Chance of rain showers late tomorrow night into Thursday morning.

- Active pattern to bring renewed precipitation chances to end the month and begin April.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A pleasant Tuesday afternoon is underway, as temperatures have warmed into the upper 40s across much of the area. Visible satellite reveals an expansive region of cirrus streaming over the Upper Midwest within northwesterly flow aloft. As such, filtered sunshine remains the story and ongoing mixing up to ~3-4k feet should yield surface highs in the 50s for many locations later this afternoon.

Water vapor imagery captures a wave coming ashore over the Pacific northwest, which is progged to ride the western CONUS ridge and spawn a surface low in the vicinity of eastern MT/northern WY/western Dakotas tomorrow. A well defined baroclinic zone located along the International Border will strengthen in response, allowing for an anomalous thermal ridge to build into the Upper Midwest. WAA will begin to increase late tonight into Wednesday morning, evidenced by a deepening 925mb warm nose on forecast soundings. With only a thin cirrus layer present, the diurnal mixing process should efficiently warm temperatures into the low to mid 70s across much of western and southern MN, which includes the TC Metro. Farther northeast, Wednesday afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s (north of I-94 in MN and for locations across western WI).

As is the case in March, what goes up typically comes down soon after, which will be the case heading into Thursday. The aforementioned baroclinic boundary will dive south across the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Following the previous discussion, we've continued to focus on the late Wednesday/early Thursday period for the chance of light rain along the trailing mid-level front. The AIFS remains the most bullish in terms of QPF, depicting a swath of 0.1-0.2" liquid along and north of I-94. This is supported by the AIFS Ens, which advertises at least 0.1" liquid at MSP across roughly 80% of its membership. Collaborated with neighbors to boost PoPs to between 40-50 percent across central MN and western WI. Low-level dry air captured on forecast soundings remains somewhat of a complicating factor, so not convinced that we'll see widespread rainfall reports in excess of a tenth of an inch, but still wanted to show an upward trend in the PoPs with today's update. Strong mid-level CAA will combine with breezy northwesterly flow to usher in a colder air mass that will bring cooler temperatures for the second half of the week. Thursday will likely be a bit of a transition day that is reflected by a high temperature range from north (40s) to south (upper 50s). The coolest day of the forecast period will be Friday, as morning lows in the teens/20s only warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s during the afternoon.

Temperatures will begin to rebound this weekend as large scale ridging expands over the central CONUS. Highs are set to warm into the 50s Saturday, the 60s Sunday, and the 60s to lower 70s Monday. Should be a nice weekend to get outdoors with little in the way of precipitation chances thanks to the ridging aloft. Looking into the long term, large scale western troughing will become the main driver for the return of wet weather early in April. Both legacy and machine learning ensemble systems show a notable increase in QPF across the Upper Midwest following the translation of longwave troughing over the western CONUS during the middle of next week. Suppose it's appropriate to make the first "April showers..." mention!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A quiet period with VFR throughout and a gradual wind shift from 150-180 towards 180-210 at or below 10kts. BKN/SCT250 to start will dissipate towards SCT/FEW250 later in the period, with the lowest cloud decks from 200-250. A brief period of LLWS is possible for RWF with a subtle boundary moving through from 08-12z, however confidence was too low to include within the TAF for now.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.