textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- POWERFUL WINTER STORM ARRIVES TODAY with the first radar echoes entering southwestern MN this morning. Peak intensity expected later this evening through Sunday with travel conditions becoming dangerous to impossible. Winter Storm Warning upgrades to Blizzard Warning for southwest to southern MN at 9am Sunday.

- FORECAST UPDATES: A slight bump northward in area, but no other significant changes. High confidence in widespread 8''+ with most ending up somewhere within 10-16'' and the highest amounts of 20''+. Highest likelihood of highest amounts from SE MN to western WI.

- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS expected to begin Sunday morning across southwestern MN as winds increase, with peak gusts of 40-50mph in addition to falling snow resulting in whiteout conditions for several hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Keeping the theme of the prior discussion and due to the nature of the forecast, the discussion will be split up into a few sections.

OVERVIEW...

Our previously advertised winter storm will arrive today and there has been relatively little change to the ongoing forecast with the main differences being a slight bump northward in the highest band of snowfall and an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for Sunday across southwestern Minnesota. The highest amount are generally expected within the eastern half of the area stretching from the Twin Cities through western WI and towards the UP. QPF within the heaviest hit area could approach 2 inches and based on forecast snow ratios of around 10:1, this is expected to result in snow amounts approaching 20+ inches in western Wisconsin. The 'lower' QPF of 0.75-1 inch in central Minnesota will likewise result in lower accumulations but still easily Winter Storm Warning 6+ inch level, with far southern Minnesota possibly seeing a bit of freezing precipitation mixing in initially primarily in the form of sleet. The slight northward bump in guidance would place the heavy footprint through the heart of the Twin Cities metro, although further wobbles are possible until the system is fully underway based on how various sets of guidance have performed this winter. Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate, becoming dangerous later this evening as snow rates intensify and next to impossible on Sunday as winds increase alongside continued snowfall. The storm looks to exit Sunday night with travel conditions remaining hazardous into Monday as winds continue to gust and produce blowing snow. If it all possible, we highly recommend avoiding all travel on Sunday during the worst of the storm and doing what you can to stay safe.

NOW THROUGH WHEN SNOW ARRIVES...

The previously mentioned 'ribbon' of moisture riding the strong upper level jet is evident on GOES water vapor imagery this morning spamming from Oregon/Washington state through the northern US and riding the ridge southeast towards the area. This upper level jet will slide eastwards towards the area with a relatively broad right entrance/upper level divergence region reinforcing ongoing light precipitation by the afternoon. Radar echoes are already spanning from central South Dakota through central Iowa along the lower level baroclinic zone ahead of the developing surface low which is situated underneath the synoptic forcing of the upper level jet over the northern Rockies as of now. As we move forward in time towards this evening, the baroclinic zone will slowly progress northwards as the surface low becomes evident over northeastern Colorado and the upper level jet places a broad right entrance region over Minnesota and Wisconsin by around 6-7pm. Snow is expected to begin during the afternoon as these two features meet, starting out relatively light but rapidly intensifying as the surface low continues to strengthen and the upper level trough begins to dig as they depart the eastern Rockies. Snow will become heavy during the evening and continue to remain heavy overnight into Sunday as the trough continues to dig taking on a negative tilt with further intensification of the surface low which looks to track across Iowa towards the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Guidance isn't completely set on the exact track of the surface low, which is why there are still some wobbles north/south expected until it arrives, however our area looks to firmly plant itself within the north/northwest quadrant of the system in prime position to see heavy snowfall.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

Heavy snow will be ongoing as we approach midnight across most of the area, with a bit of sleet possibly mixing in across far southern Minnesota where the 850mb baroclinic zone could edge just far enough northwards to introduce a warm nose, evident within model forecast soundings across the I-90 corridor by around 5-6am. The DGZ is shallower farther to the south/closer to the center of the low, which should allow for at least a few hours of sleet or a wintry mix of snow/sleet until enough precipitation falls to cool the warm nose back down below freezing and transitioning the column back to snow. The northward extent of the warm nose is one of the key points of uncertainty yet remaining within the system as in general the GFS/GEFS model suite pushes the warm nose as far north as Mankato while the steady ECMWF/EPS/AIFS bring it only to the MN/IA border, which would keep the p-type as primarily snow throughout. Regardless of how much ice falls, we still anticipate warning level snowfall even across this region despite lower snowfall rates and missing the heaviest band of snowfall, which should set up farther north.

Speaking of the heaviest band of snowfall, the slight northward bump would place it squarely across the Twin Cities Metro and into western Wisconsin by sunrise on Sunday with the highest QPF 6 hour window from roughly 1am to 7am. Snowfall rates could exceed 2 or even 3 inches/hr at times during this window as the upper level trough continues to dig and begins to negatively tilt and surface low tracks closer to the area. Forecast soundings show the thermal profile just a tad warmer than your typical DGZ which resides from roughly -10 to -20C, which makes sense given that higher QPF winter storms often struggle to produce snow ratios above 12 or 15 to 1, as internal studies at MPX has shown in the past. Snow ratios are expected to hover from 8/10 to 1 during this window, which looks to produce 6-8 inches of snowfall within the heaviest band during these 6 hours alone. As time progresses past sunrise and the trough continues to dig/surface low continues to strengthen, continuous heavy snowfall is expected to continue through the rest of the morning until the surface low moves far enough east to bring the heaviest rates towards northern WI around midday. By the afternoon, snow should begin to taper off from west to east as the surface low and upper level trough both slide to the east, with light snow lingering into the late evening across eastern Minnesota and into early Monday morning in western WI.

As the surface low is displaced a bit farther away from the immediate area during the afternoon and into the evening, winds are expected to increase due to a strengthening surface pressure gradient resulting from further intensification of the system as it moves eastwards, with wind gusts ranging from as high as 45-55mph in southern Minnesota tapering towards 30-40mph in the Twin Cities and 25-35mph in central Minnesota. This will result in further dangerous travel even as snow begins to weaken due to blowing, coupled with snow ratios generally increasing as the snow weakens as the entire atmospheric column cools northwest of the surface low. The gusty winds and blowing snow look to continue into Monday, making cleanup all the more difficult on top of the sheer amount of snowfall expected. The upgrade to a BLIZZARD WARNING for portions of southwestern and southern Minnesota is due to the increasingly gusty winds on top of falling snow, with the warning beginning in the late morning Sunday and lingering into Monday. We would not be surprised to see a Monday morning commute that is incredibly slow due to ongoing snow removal efforts being hindered by the blowing snow and gusty winds, which will gradually weaken throughout the day Monday.

Snow will end early Monday morning as the upper level trough axis progresses through the area with subsidence rapidly filling in behind the departing surface low with a 1030mb high forming by Monday evening. Winds will also be weakening significantly by this point, with quiet conditions once again returning as the system continues to move eastwards towards the Atlantic Coast.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...

We will not see a prolonged period of quiet weather behind the system as another albeit much weaker hit of snow is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as another upper level jet slides into the region dragging a low level baroclinic zone through. The setup is obviously much weaker than the previous system and also much more transient with a 12 hour window of light snow resulting in another potential inch or two spanning Tuesday night through late morning Wednesday. This event wraps up quickly replaced by somewhat stagnant weather with no strong systems through the remainder of the week. NBM tries to rebound temperatures back into the mid to upper 40s by Friday, however this may be optimistic given the expected new/deep snowpack and as such we may end up in the low 40s instead. The key factor in snowmelt will not only be hours of sun during the day but also if we stay above freezing at night, thus cloud cover will be the thing to watch towards the later half of the week to see just how warm we end up.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Starting the TAF VFR at all locations but we are not going to stay that way as eventual -SN becomes SN with IFR across all sites as a powerful winter storm enters the region today. A prolonged period of SN to +SN is expected which will rapidly lower CIGS to IFR within the first 3-4 hours of snow falling, remaining IFR with periods of LIFR likely as visibility drops below 1/4sm with snow rates exceeding 1 in/hr. There is also the possibility of SNPL or even sleet in southern Minnesota, which is included in the MKT TAF but how far north the mix goes remains to be seen. Right now the highest confidence is that snowfall rates will be intense enough for all sites north of MKT that we will remain only snow throughout the event. Winds increase from 080-110 throughout, eventually becoming sustained at 15-20kts gusting to 30-35kts with further increases to wind speeds beyond the end of the period.

KMSP...Elected to not include a mention of SNPL or sleet this morning although it is possible this far north. Guidance yesterday evening and overnight is slightly farther north compared to previous runs, however we have seen this trend before this winter only for them to return to a more consensus southerly track as the system arrives. For now, the chance for a wintry mix as opposed to pure snow is around 10-15%, with a period limited to around 3 to 4 hours from roughly 06 to 12z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...Chance AM IFR BLSN. Wind NW 10-15G30kts. TUE...VFR, -SN/MVFR late. Wind NW to S 5kts. WED...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

To provide some historical context to the snowfall forecast for this weekend, here are the 10 largest observed single storm snowfalls in the Twin Cities recorded history (1884-present) as collected by the MN State Climatology office.

1. 28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard) 2. 21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend) 3. 20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23 4. 17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21 5. 17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Domebuster) 6. 16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13 (Armistice Day) 7. 16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4 (Largest March snowstorm) 7. 16.7 inches: 1940 March 10 - 14 9. 16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28 10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21 10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT Sunday for Douglas-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Sunday for Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker- Pope-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sibley- Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Monday for Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Goodhue- Hennepin-Isanti-Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne-Stearns-Washington- Wright. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for Blue Earth-Brown-Le Sueur-Nicollet-Redwood- Rice-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin. Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Monday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk- Rusk-St. Croix.