textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms expected this evening along a passing cold front. A few severe thunderstorms could produce large hail and gusty winds.

- Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather through the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Tonight...Early morning showers have persisted well into the afternoon here, limiting the atmosphere from recovering as much. That said, the combination of some clearing out west and increasing moisture has allowed a pool of greater instability to form across western and north-central MN. As the front moves southeast this evening, we expect isolated to scattered storms to develop along it, most likely over central MN. Sufficient wind shear (~30 to 40 kts) and moisture (PWATS ~1.2 to 1.4") will support the development and organization of at least a few storms. It is uncertain how many storms will become strong enough to reach severe limits given the relatively weaker mid level lapse rates (around 6 to 6.5 C/km). The SPC has maintained a slight risk of severe weather across a strip of MN and northwest WI, with a focus on large hail. It is important to note that not everyone within the risk area will see storms, in fact most may not see any rain, but that is the best environment for any storms that do develop to become more organized. The latest timing favors a later arrival for most locations, with the initial storms developing around 5-7pm near Alexandria and Brainerd, then moving southeast towards the Twin Cities metro and western WI around 9pm-midnight. Storms west/south of I-94 are more uncertain for storm development, especially across Minnesota.

This Weekend and Early Next Week...The forecast becomes "boring" again heading into the weekend as drier air moves in and northwest flow continues aloft. Temperatures remain very seasonable, and cloud cover should be pretty limited to your typical diurnal cumulus clouds each day.

Things shake up a little bit as we head into next week and heights start to rise aloft. Surface winds shift out of the south and warmer temperatures and greater moisture gradually returns. Long range guidance is showing broad agreement of rain chances at some point Monday-Wednesday, likely in the form of another frontal passage. That's a ways out, so we'll focus on the nice weather this weekend instead!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Early this afternoon we have seen and will continue to see some VFR showers. Very low chance for some isolated TS. Late afternoon into early evening a round of storms is expected to fire in central Minnesota. This likely broken line will track to the east. This is not expected to be a large scale MCS situation and more of a isolated to scattered setup. So lower confidence on which individual terminals will be hit right now. So kept most with PROB30 for now due to this. Winds will be gusty until after the storms pass. Light overnight and then a shift to the northwest as the front moves through.

KMSP...Some showers in the vicinity this afternoon, but should be no significant impacts. Still a chance for some evening TSRA, but confidence on if the terminal area will be hit low enough that have opted to stick with PROB30. Should be able to narrow this window by the 21Z AMD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. MON...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind S 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.