textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds and a few inches of fresh snow will result in Blizzard conditions and whiteout conditions in portions of southwest & south- central MN this afternoon/evening.

- Snow will taper off this evening from west to east. Total accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Gusty winds will lead to areas of blowing snow across portions of western & southern Minnesota.

- An Extreme Cold Warning will be issued for dangerously cold Wind Chills as low as 45 below zero Thursday evening through Friday morning.

- An Extreme Cold Watch continues for Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1119 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Current regional radar highlights a broad area of light snow over eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Light snow will continue through mid-afternoon before tapering off. Most locations should expect an inch or two of new snow. Winds ramp up this afternoon behind the snow. The signal for the strongest winds remains to our southwest, but gusts up to 45 mph from the northwest will lead to areas of blowing snow across western & southern Minnesota. The worst impacts will occur in SW MN & south-central MN this afternoon which has prompted an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning. The combination of fluffy new snow & strong winds will support whiteout conditions with near zero visibility across portions of southwest & south-central MN. This includes much of the I-90 corridor in S MN. Significant travel impacts will be possible in the Blizzard Warning. Locations further east have been included in a Winter Weather Advisory expansion prompted by slightly higher snow forecast due to higher SLRs. These locations in the Advisory can expect occasional Blizzard conditions due to blowing snow, but most of the time should have visibilities at or above a half mile. Impacts will spin down quickly as the clipper dives southeast and the winds decrease late this evening. Conditions should improve and allow our Winter Weather Advisory will expire at 6 PM and the Blizzard Warning Expires at 7 PM.

While some lingering patchy blowing snow remains possible - the worst of it will be over by the end of this evening. Tonight will see dry conditions with northwest winds ushering in what will be the coldest air mass of the season so far. Our high temperatures for Thursday will occur tonight at midnight or shortly after. Speaking of Thursday, we'll start off with temperatures in the single digits above zero and by the end of the work day we'll likely see temperatures at or below -10F. Wind chill temperatures will plummet as the cold builds in. We'll see Wind Chill temepratures -25F or colder across central MN and -15 to - 25 by 4 PM. Temperatures & wind chills continue to plummet Thursday evening through Friday morning. So how cold will it get Friday morning? We'll see temperatures bottom out in the mid 10s to mid 20s below zero Friday morning. Wind chill values at or below -40F. This will lead to an upgrade a portion of the Extreme Cold Watch to an Extreme Cold Warning Thursday evening through Friday late morning. This is dangerously cold that could cause frostbite in a matter of minutes for exposed skin. This should be the coldest air mass since January 2019's end of month cold snap. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for Friday afternoon to Saturday late morning given the potential we lose wind thus losing wind chill temperatures.

High temperatures top out in the single digits and teens below zero Friday before falling back into the 20s below zero Friday night & Saturday morning. Winds should decrease as the high pressure moves overhead Friday night, which would cause our apparent temperatures to be equal to our air temperatures. It is still bitter cold, but it should feel "less" cold than Friday morning. This is our reasoning to why we kept the Extreme Cold Watch in effect for that period given the uncertainty with winds... but it's safe to expect at least a Cold Weather Advisory for Friday PM through Saturday Noon-ish. Saturday & Sunday remain cold, well below normal, but temperatures will begin to moderate through the weekend. We'll see temperatures return to more typical Winter values for the first half of next week with highs in the mid to upper teens above zero. Some models indicate that this pattern could reload with another cold snap for the end of the period & into next weekend. It's worth noting that it doesn't look "warm" anytime soon as we end January and begin February. Precipitation wise... it's not too exciting. These Arctic sfc highs produce very dry air & act to push the the storm track (jet stream) further south across the CONUS. That means any snow we observe over the next week likely comes in the form of a Clipper- type system. The better signal for big snow storms appears to be in the southern/eastern Great Lakes to the northeast... but there is plenty of Winter left!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

No major changes from the previous forecast. Snow is overspreading the forecast area, and will continue through mid-afternoon. On the backside of the snow, expect westerly winds to become northwest. The heaviest snow and strongest winds will be at KRWF and KMKT, where IFR and LIFR is possible. Overnight winds will decrease and blowing snow will end, but look for northwest winds to pick up and gust near 20 kts late Thursday morning.

KMSP... The main change is the heaviest snow has shifted southwest a bit, so at this point only anticipating less than an inch of additional accumulation, and visibility should remain mostly a mile or greater. Winds are also coming in a bit lighter, so did decrease gusts for later this afternoon and evening. Expect VFR conditions overnight into Thursday, with winds picking up closer to 20 kts mid- morning.

Lastly, very cold air will move in Thursday evening and overnight, with wind chills of -40 Friday morning and air temperatures of -20.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR and cold. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE to W 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Cold Warning from 5 PM Thursday to 11 AM CST Friday for Benton-Douglas-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope- Stearns-Stevens-Todd. Extreme Cold Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Nicollet- Renville-Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Yellow Medicine. Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Thursday to 11 AM CST Friday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota- Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey- Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Swift- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Blue Earth- Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan. WI...Extreme Cold Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce- Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Thursday to 11 AM CST Friday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk- Rusk-St. Croix.