textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast tonight into Tuesday morning. A few stronger storms may produce isolated damaging wind and hail across western MN.

- Highs in the upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday with a rebound into the upper 80s at the conclusion of the work week and over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Current satellite showing mid to high-level clouds across much of the northern half of Minnesota. This being out ahead of a surface cold front that is expected to move SE across MN/WI later today through tonight. For the rest of this afternoon, folks can expect temperatures to be a bit warmer than they were this past weekend. Most sites will warm in to the mid-80s this afternoon. It will feel a bit sticky though as dew points creep near 70 degrees, especially across western MN. Wind speeds will be elevated with gusts reaching 25-35mph. Clouds will gradually increase from north to south for the remainder of the day as the aforementioned cold front approaches. Given the warmer and stickier air to our west, the better chance for the strongest precip looks to be focused across NW'rn Minnesota late this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms that mainly will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, given better shear profiles across NW'rn MN into the Dakotas, a tornado cannot be ruled out for areas NW of Little Falls down to Morris. Through time, forcing and instability wanes and storms that congeal into broken segments across central MN are expected to scatter out into eastern MN/western WI by early tomorrow morning. Heavy rain, especially in the early onset of this system will be likely as PWAT values are elevated near 1.8 to 2.0". As for rainfall accumulation, The bullseye will remain well of to our north near Grand Forks and the Int'l border. Most of us across central and southern MN could see perhaps a few hundredths of an inch whereas areas west could squeeze out a closer to a quarter inch. As always, locally higher amounts could occur with any thunderstorms.

By mid-Tuesday morning, most precip should have diminished as the boundary stalls over eastern MN and western WI. Troughing aloft gradually guides this boundary further eastward Tuesday afternoon but this in turn will create another opportunity for CI to occur across southern MN down to the MN/IA border. Nothing widespread is expected but do have 20-30 PoP mentions for the potential for scattered pulse-like summertime convection. At this time, no severe weather is expected. Temperatures post- fropa will be noticeably cooler with highs ranging in the 70s both days with dew points mainly in the 50s.

Temperatures do make a comeback later in the week, upper-level flow becomes more zonal with warmer h85 temps being trapped just south of the Canadian Border. Highs will reach the lower 80s by Thursday and then reaching the upper 80s by this weekend. The next fair shot at precip wouldn't arrive until Saturday night into Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions continue for most of the period, with the main weather concern being our incoming cold front. Winds will shift out of the northwest behind the front, and a period of showers and storms are expected as the front passes through. There remains a short window for about 40 to 45 kts of south/southwesterly LLWS to develop ahead of the front. Cigs may lower to MVFR levels as the showers move through, though confidence is low on how widespread or persistent they will end up becoming. KAXN and KEAU remain the most likely to see a few hours of MVFR cigs. All sites are expected to return to VFR conditions by midday Tuesday with NW winds around 10 kts.

KMSP...Best timing of -SHRA remains around 08-11z, with a stray thunderstorm still possible within that window as well. It is more likely that there is very limited or no lightning at the terminal, but a nonzero chance remains.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind VRB to SW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.