textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures though most of the next week with expected warming next weekend.

- Dry today, but chances for rain Monday afternoon into early Tuesday, Wednesday into Thursday, and near the end of the week. The best overall chance is Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Generally high pressure today will keep rain chances away and will promote clear skies during the day. There has been a persistent stratus layer this morning that should dissipate later this morning as we warm and mix. This will also be another day of mixing and gusty winds just like Saturday was. Today will be the same air mass as Saturday with similar temperatures. Monday however will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s as we get a brief break in our northwesterly flow to a more westerly one. This shift is also associated with a shortwave that will provide for some lift for a rain chance Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. The challenge for rain for this first chance will be dry air. Forecast soundings show a substantial dry layer in the lower atmosphere. Whatever rain develops will need to make it through this dry layer to reach the surface. So light rain will struggle to make it to the ground. This also keeps LCLs very high and instability very elevated. Isolated thunderstorms could occur, but with elevated and limited instability coverage and strength will be limited.

The main impact period for this week looks to be mid week as another shortwave moves down over the Upper Midwest. This wave is associated with the same upper low over the Hudson Bay that brings our Monday system. This is all based on deterministic guidance, but looking towards ensemble solutions this mid week system is also the highest probability of the next week. The spread for this event is more how much rain could fall rather than if it will fall. Also some spread in the timing as mentioned in the previous discussion. This higher confidence is tied both to better forcing and better moisture overall with dew points 10 to 20 degrees higher than Monday. Looking for forecast soundings the profiles do look moist as expected, but instability is low which will limit thunderstorm chances. Honestly it looks like a winter sounding just about 30 degrees warmer. These profiles favor stratiform rain rather than convection. This could shift some, as we get close enough for CAMs as some sneaky instability could be hiding in the coarser model resolution. Looking towards the end of the week into next weekend a lot of spread remains. It does look likely that there will be another system moving into the central CONUS, but how far south it gets varies a lot between models. On a temperature front there does still appear to be a warm up with more WAA, but over the past day more ensemble members have been showing the chance for the cooler temperatures continuing. This is related to how far south the aforementioned system digs into CONUS. The cooler solutions are still the minority, but still something to keep in mind as future runs come in.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

High resolution guidance has been slow to catch up on the abundant cumulus at all of the terminals, so the main forecast deviation was to keep the cumulus around through 00-02z. Generally they should remain between the 040-050 level and remain VFR throughout, with little reason to think even a brief blip into MVFR is possible. Winds will remain blustery with gusts up to or just above 25kts from 300-330, falling back overnight and shifting towards 250-270 before returning to 280-300 after 12z. Upper level clouds begin to fill in towards the end of the period with -SHRA chances arriving after period's end that will begin to be mentioned within the next few TAF periods.

KMSP...-SHRA is possible towards the end of the period with -TSRA possible, however confidence was too low to include for now given the timing. Expect to see mentions pop up within the next few periods, with scattered showers and weak -TSRA possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind NW 10-15kts. WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.