textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue before more seasonable temperatures return to end the week.

- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Wednesday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Monday and Tuesday... Latest radar imagery highlights an area of scattered thunderstorms across western Wisconsin. These storms developed under an strip of forcing tied to a trough. This trough and storms will both shift northward and out of the area over the next 6 to 12 hours. Elsewhere, mostly sunny skies dominate 2/3rds of the CWA with a broken layer across far eastern and southeast Minnesota. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s and dew points in the upper 60s make it feel much closer to July or early August than mid September. We'll see skies clear out tonight with lows dropping only in the mid to upper 60s with light SE winds. On Tuesday, we will hit the peak of our late season warm up. Highs will warm into the upper 80s and a few locations could hit the lower 90s. There could be isolated showers over W WI, but guidance doesn't really latch on to anything. These showers would be more diurnally driven with the lack of any upper level support and shouldn't be a real concern. Overall - a pleasant, warm late Summer day. Enjoy it while it's here.

Wednesday through the weekend... Our pattern aloft will slowly begin to break down. An upper level low over the Dakotas will tip toe east as the ridging over the Great Lakes region holds steady. This will set up an unsettled pattern as several rounds of diurnally driven precipitation is in store for the Upper Midwest. The NBM maintains 30 to 60 PoPs through 00z Sunday, but do no plan for a continuous rain. This is an artifact of timing & placement differences in the various model and ensemble guidance. The severe weather chances are low, but non-zero. The lack of synoptic forcing & wind shear means that we're likely to end up in the general thunder bin unless a mesoscale feature can cause a local enhancement (IE an MCV). Temperatures start a gradual drop Wednesday with highs in the lower 80s and we'll "bottom out" in the lower 70s on Saturday before rebounding in the mid 70s Sunday. This does mean we'll see temperatures go from well above normal to just above normal. What is normal right now? At MSP: Average highs are currently in the lower 70s and fall to the upper 60s next week. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.25" to 1.0" with locally higher amounts across western Minnesota. Looking beyond the next 7 days, ensemble guidance continues to favor a more northern storm track across Canada. That should keep things quiet & mild through the end of September.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout this duration at all TAF sites. Very small chance for SHRA in eastern MN into western MN later this evening but not high enough to warrant mention at this time. Mid-level FEW coverage also in eastern MN into western WI through this evening, then just passing high clouds tonight through tomorrow for all TAF sites. Winds to slowly veer from SE to S tonight through tomorrow with speeds dropping to 5-10kts this evening and overnight, then nudging up to around 10kts during the day Tuesday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR early. MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA late. Wind S 5-10kts. THU...Chance MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...Chance MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.