textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of frost overnight, especially across west-central Minnesota

- Seasonably cool & dry weather persist through mid-week.

- Shower & thunderstorm chances return Friday through the Memorial Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A band of light showers/drizzle continues to move eastwards across eastern Minnesota &western Wisconsin, with precipitation expected to end around sunrise across the area. A very cool day more typical of March or October is in store as widespread cloud cover & persistent cold advection limits temperatures to the upper 40s & low 50s this afternoon. Isolated diurnally- driven rain showers are also expected to develop by mid- afternoon but any rain from these will be brief & negligible.

Clouds are expected to clear out after sunset & winds go calm as high pressure slides over the region, creating ideal conditions for radiational cooling overnight. We likely won't maximize our cooling potential owing to the wet ground & moist boundary layer from the recent rains, but temperatures are expected to fall into the 30s across most of Minnesota 7 low 40s across western Wisconsin. Just how low temperatures could fall still remains in question, but conditions look favorable for at least patchy frost to develop across much of the region, especially in rural & low-lying areas. The coldest temperatures in the mid 30s are expected across west-central Minnesota, & we'll have to monitor forecast trends today to see if any areas are at risk for a freeze overnight.

Temperatures rebound nicely Wednesday with mostly clear skies warming temperatures back into the 60s. We'll stay seasonably cool & dry into Friday, but our next chance for precipitation comes Friday into Saturday morning as deterministic & ensemble solutions all develop a shortwave tracking along the US-canada border. AI convective outlooks show very low probabilities for any severe weather with this disturbance, so we're just expecting another round of typical Spring showers & thunderstorms. Solutions vary somewhat on precipitation chances through the rest of the Memorial day weekend, but at least another round of showers & thunderstorms looks likely over the later part of the weekend - most likely Monday. So we'll see some rain chances over the holiday weekend but no a washout by any means. Temperatures likely stay on the cool side of normal with the rain chances Saturday, but could warm into the 80s for Sunday & Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 655 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

All showers that had impacted our eastern sites early this morning have now dissipated. Main concern today is lingering IFR/MVFR stratus that wont improve to VFR until later this afternoon. Breezy NW'ly winds will prevail today with sustained speeds near 15kts and gusts between 20-25kts. Cant rule out the chance of an isolated sprinkle this afternoon. Chose not to include precip at any one location given the scattered nature of modeled reflectivity.

KMSP...Low MVFR stratus is expected to stick around this morning until this afternoon between 22-00z timeframe when cigs scatter out to low VFR. Breezy NW'ly winds will prevail today with sustained winds near 15kts and gusts between 20-25kts then becoming light late this evening. There is a slight chance of scattered sprinkles this afternoon but expected not to cause impacts or disruptions to flight operations.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED PM...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.