textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather today and tomorrow, with rain chances returning on Friday.

- Isolated storm chances linger through the rest of the period, with the best chance Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The fair weather cumulus has largely been confined to western WI and southeastern MN so far this afternoon with some wispy high clouds also moving through on what is otherwise a gorgeous day across the region. Temperatures are comfortable in the low to mid 70s expected to reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon before dropping back into the 50s tonight. Tomorrow should be a bit warmer than today, back to the low to mid 80s as breezy southerly winds are expected ahead of what will be our next chance for precipitation arriving on Friday via a weak cold front. The timing of the front has trended earlier within the last 24 hours of model runs, generally arriving around 12 hours earlier than previously forecast by most of the guidance as we have just reached the range where some of the CAMs are starting to pick up on it. The earlier timing will allow the strongest showers to arrive from the northwest with a bit of nocturnal low level jet enhancement, however by the time it reaches the MPX CWA it will be after sunrise such that they should remain fairly weak. Due to how weak the surface low and frontal boundary are, we are not expecting any sort of significant widespread rains or even storms from this round, with most of the area being fairly dry or less than a few hundredths of an inch. Those who manage to see a slightly stronger shower or even a weak thunderstorm could see a tenth of an inch or two at the most through the end of Friday.

There is still a notable warm bias within the GEFS/FV3 suite of guidance as we head through the weekend and into early next week, as they are producing a much stronger ridge to the southwest which is allowing for a much greater degree of lower level warming compared to the much cooler EPS/ECMWF. The NBM has generally favored the EPS solution with highs in the low to mid 80s through the weekend and into early next week, which seems most realistic as the FV3 core likely is keeping a lingering warm bias due to the hot weather we observed throughout July. On top of the warm bias, there are concerns due to the upstream flow being sourced from a region with active wildfires resulting in upper level smoke which would help knock down temperatures by a degree or two. Weaker lower level warming would also give us better chances for fair weather cumulus or even some isolated storm activity by reducing any sort of lower level cap and allowing us to tap into some instability. Given the upper level flow favoring west-northwest to northwesterly, some ridge-rider style shortwave impulses are also possible, further adding to the daily cloud cover/isolated storm chances. All these things combined, we generally favor the cooler solution compared to the red hot GEFS/FV3. As we get a bit closer and into the shorter- CAM ranges, we should have a better idea on diurnal thunderstorm chances. For now, the best chances remain Friday and Saturday night, with low confidence afterwards.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Another quiet TAF period ahead, with breezy southerly winds serving as the main aviation concern. Southerly gusts (up to 25kts or so across western MN) will increase mid-morning and persist into the evening hours. Wind gusts will be less intense farther to east so have opted to not include a gust mention at RNH/EAU. Satellite captures high clouds moving into the western Dakotas that are forecast to continue eastward today, so have included FEW-SCT clouds above 10k feet at most sites.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SW-NW 5-10G20kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NNE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.