textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- After a day of near normal November temperatures today, we will return to above normal for the rest of the next week.

- No significant chances for precipitation over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Rest of Today into Tonight... After seeing the first freeze of the season for the core Twin Cities metro this morning we will see a gradual warming period. Despite being much colder today than what we have seen recently, this is actual right about normal for this time of year. The normal high for today at MSP is 47 and the normal now is 32, so only a few degrees off of what we are seeing today. Tonight will be another cooler night and will depend on how the clouds evolve. Fairly confidence we will see clouds spread across western Minnesota helping limit radiative cooling. To the east though this cloud cover gets less certain and we will see more radiative cooling and there looks to be a push of some CAA across Wisconsin. So it will be this area with the coldest temperatures tonight.

Saturday into next week... Overall this looks like a fairly dry period with the only chance in the main deterministic global models being a possible Alberta Clipper late Wed into Thursday. Not seeing much in the NBM right now through, as this is not as consistently shown within the ensemble solutions. This keeps the NBM based long term forecast dry. We had such a wet start to the month though that we are at 800 percent or higher month to date on precipitation at our STC and MSP climate sites. To put this another way, we would still be above normal if we saw no additional rain or snow at our STC and MSP climate stations for the rest of the month. Past the dry part of the forecast the other key message will be a return to above normal temperatures. After Friday's taste of what normal November temperatures are like we will warm back to above normal. Mostly neutral to warm air advection through mid week before the clipper chance. After that we could see another cooler, closer to normal, period late next week. However another rebound still looks likely so this next round of cold air does not look like it will be the one the makes to cold last. Looking into longer range model guidance it might not be until late November or even early December before we get some more consistent cold to stick around. Put another way, it is going to be a while before we start seeing lake ice or a snowpack. Which was expected for a strong El Nino year.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 535 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

New 00z TAF package features some notable changes to the forecast given observational trends across the eastern Dakotas that depict the rapid erosion of daytime stratus. Short term model soundings from the RAP & RRFS (and the HRRR to some extent) have consistently advertised the establishment and persistence of MVFR stratus between 1-2k feet spreading east across central/southern MN tonight. However, given the poor handling of yesterday's stratus deck and aforementioned thinning of the stratus deck out west, have taken a very optimistic approach to the 00z package, generally running VFR with high clouds drifting across the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings from the optimistic global models (Euro/GFS) depict sufficient boundary layer saturation overnight for the development of ground fog across western MN. The presence of high clouds casts some doubt in just how degraded visibilities may be, so pulled IFR visibility mention back into TEMPOs at AXN & RWF. Otherwise, anticipate VFR conditions through the period with light winds increasing out of the southwest Saturday morning.

KMSP...Forecast confidence in the development of MVFR cigs between 1-2k feet has decreased since midday TAF issuance due to the rapid erosion of stratus across the Dakotas over the past few hours. Leaned on optimistic side of the guidance suite which supports the removal of a potential MVFR cig overnight into Saturday morning. It's possible that a patchy ground fog scenario may unfold prior to daybreak, but confidence in this reducing visibility below 6SM at MSP is low due to the presence of high clouds drifting eastward across the region. Winds increase out of the southwest tomorrow with SCT-BKN high clouds through the end of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S bcmg W 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.