textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer today, with potential for a round of light mixed precipitation across central MN this evening.

- Above normal temperatures persist through next weekend. Highs generally above freezing in the upper 30s to low 40s each day.

- Most of the upcoming week will be dry, with the best chance for snow on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Latest surface analysis places a 1003mb surface low over southern Manitoba, owing to our predominant southerly flow across the region this morning. A secondary wave within the midlevel flow will allow an additional surface low to develop near the SD/MN/IA triple point. This will create an interesting wind and temperature field, where you start to see winds turn out of the north across central MN as the southern low moves east. A baroclinic zone will set up with a tight temperature gradient ranging from the 50s across southwestern MN to areas remaining in the 30s north of I-94.

We continue to expect a quick 2 to 4 hour period of light precipitation today, though latest guidance has favored a later onset time. Forecast soundings suggest that we could have as large as a 4-5kft layer of dry air to overcome near the surface. By the time you saturate, you cool throughout the layer, favoring snow. Timing will be key as well, with surface temperatures dropping near freezing shortly after sunset. We like the look of the 00z RRFS, where you get a deformation band to produce a narrow area of rain/snow mix develop Fergus Falls and Alexandria (around 4-6pm) that slides east while transitioning to mostly all snow, clipping areas near Litchfield, St Cloud, and Mora before forcing weakens and precip lets off. With surface temperatures near/below freezing, any rain that falls could result in light icing in spots. While QPF remains around only a few hundredths, the complication of falling temperatures could facilitate slick travel conditions for any untreated surfaces.

We'll see winds increase out of the northwest behind this pair of surface lows, gusting to around 25 mph during the day Tuesday. It's worth noting that some soundings suggest slightly higher gusts may be able to mix down through the channel, especially near west-central MN. This burst of CAA will drop temperatures for a couple days before slight ridging builds back in ahead of our next shortwave to watch.

I'll start this section off with saying there has been no major change to the forecast for Thursday... WAA and isentropic ascent associated with this shortwave have the potential to produce a round of banded precip across portions of southern and central MN, though southern MN into Iowa remain the favored area for QPF. The latest QPF has become less broad, causing totals to drop by half a tenth or so (leaving generally 0.1 to 0.3 inches of QPF for areas south of I-94 in MN). Confidence remains low in this forecast with plenty of run to run, and model to model variability. As we get into the realm of hi-res guidance, we'll start to get a better idea of the overall extent and type of precip that will fall. A gradual warm up will follow this system, with a pleasant weekend looking likely as a broad are of high pressure spreads across the Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR and quiet to open the 18z TAF period. A blanket of high level clouds is captured on visible satellite over the region. The clouds will gradually lower as a weather system over the Dakotas draws east this evening through early Tuesday. A band of light precipitation is forecast to develop across central MN and western WI this evening into tonight in association with this system. Have maintained the inclusion of PROB30s at AXN, STC, RNH, EAU for a short period of light rain and snow as the light QPF moves through. Will keep an eye on observational trends to upgrade PROB30s to TEMPOs as confidence in precipitation windows increases. Light southerly winds will turn northwesterly behind a frontal boundary. Northwest winds will increase overnight into Tuesday, with gusts near 25 knots likely. Ceilings dip to MVFR overnight and will persist through the first half of Tuesday.

KMSP...Light southerly winds will turn northwesterly late afternoon into early evening. Majority of tonight's precipitation will remain north of the terminal. Can't rule out a brief sprinkle or snowflake between 4-7z, but measurable precipitation is not anticipated.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR ceilings likely. Chance -SN. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.