textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Icy travel Sunday with a wintry mix of snow, sleet, & freezing rain.

- Another light wintry mix possible Tuesday morning.

- Warmer, above-freezing temperatures expected this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Scattered flurries have developed this afternoon with the deck of stratus over the region, but that will be it weather-wise until late tomorrow morning/afternoon, when the next round of wintry forcing arrives. Lift from two sources will begin strengthening overnight into tomorrow morning, driven by upper level forcing from a approaching shortwave/jetstreak combo, & low-level from strong warm advection driven by a 50-60 kt low- level jet. This low-level warm advection will set the stage for a complicated precipitation forecast tomorrow, as a warm nose of around 5 degrees Celsius builds by the morning, on top of a fairly deep layer of well-below freezing air. Further complicating the forecast is the uncertainty on how early during the morning the precipitation could develop, as forecast soundings suggest freezing rain/sleet looks more likely during the morning/early afternoon while snow becomes more likely during the late afternoon/evening. We may have to wait until the event begins to really know what kind of mix we will get, but in general, a few hours of sleet or freezing rain looks likely across east-central Minnesota beginning late morning into early afternoon, while snow & some sleet looks more likely later in the afternoon across western Wisconsin. Snow amounts look minor, on the order of an inch or less, & sleet usually doesn't cause too much issues on the road, so ultimately any travel impacts will really come down to just how deep the warm nose/surface cold layer are & weather snowflakes can totally melt & remain liquid at the surface for freezing rain to develop. We will continue to monitor the upper level temperature trends into tomorrow morning for whether a Winter Weather Advisory for icy travel may be needed.

Above-normal temperatures are expected through most of next week as broad ridging develops over the central CONUS & eventually gives way to strong zonal flow over the US/Canada border. Ensemble temperature anomalies are forecast to range between 10-15 F above normal, suggesting daytime highs at least above freezing, possibly in the 40s at times, & overnight lows generally in the 20s. We'll have to monitor a potential wave overnight Monday into Tuesday, as the warm temperatures aloft & colder surface temperatures during the overnight/morning timing suggest another round of freezing rain/sleet are possible. Otherwise, our weather should remain quiet until at least next weekend, when deterministic & ensemble guidance all depict a strong winter system somewhere over the midwest. Despite the wide spread of solutions in traditional deterministic models, AI deterministic & ensemble guidance both suggest the low taking a favorable track for snow across Minnesota & Wisconsin, so we will have to continue to monitor this time frame through the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 539 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

IFR to MVFR stratus sticks around for the period, with STC being the only site with VFR cigs for the next couple of hours. Late in the period, a 50 kt LLJ will result in strong WAA, with a band of precip likely to develop over central MN in the 17z-19z timeframe. Given the warm nose aloft and deep, cold surface layer, this looks to initially start out as sleet, but quickly transition to freezing rain as that near surface layer warms up (but remains below freezing). Current thinking is that AXN and RWF, potentially MKT will remain dry. MSP, STC, RNH, EAU all have a period of freezing rain or sleet in the TAF for a 2-4 hour period Sunday afternoon.

KMSP...Little change to the TAF this set, with the three hour window of FZRAPL remaining. This signal has been present in the models for days, hence the confidence in seeing precip Sunday afternoon. It will be short-lived, lasting 2-4 hours, but when the predominate p-type looks to be freezing rain or sleet, it could be a pretty impactful 2-4 hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...IFR/LIFR cigs/vis likely in mrng. Wind VRB05kt. TUE...VFR/MVFR. Chc -FZRA/-RA. Wind W 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.