textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms return to the forecast Friday afternoon. A few stronger storms are possible across eastern MN into western WI.

- Unsettled pattern will support addition chances for showers and storms through the weekend.

- Near-normal temperatures for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Not much to speak on at least in the very near-term. Current satellite showing a band of scattered upper-level cirrostratus along with some patches of mid-level cumulus across portions of northern down into western MN. Earlier today, this area of cumulus has been trying to squeeze out a few droplets of precip however, they are running into dry air as noted in our 12z UA sounding. Perhaps some of you have noticed that there is a stark contrast between the hue of blue sky (or lack thereof) on the horizon as compared to yesterday at this time. This is a result of from upper-level flow carrying in PacNorthwest wildfire smoke. Skies will have a bit of haziness for at least the next 24 to 36 hours before a cold front will push everything off to the southeast. Temperatures for the remainder of today will reach near 80 degrees and perhaps may need to trend back a degree or two based off of some elevated smoke limiting "some" solar radiation's ability to heat the surface. It will feel a bit sticker too as compared to yesterday, dew points have crept back into the lower 60s as seen on western MN surface observations.

Dew points will continue to trend up tonight into tomorrow thanks to a warm advective regime out ahead of a parent troughing pattern which will span from Manitoba to Quebec. This trough features a surface cold front that is expected to sweep through the northern plains from NW to SE through the course of Friday. There has been some guidance that wants to produce precip for southwestern MN during the pre-dawn hours of Friday. However, digging into forecast soundings, enough surface dry air appears to be in place which should suppress all if any moisture from reaching the surface which seems reasonably represented by the latest NBM PoPs. The concern for strong storms starts late morning to early afternoon across eastern MN into western WI. It is expect for CI to begin mainly near the I-35 corridor as early as 11AM although more likely near 2-3PM. Mixed layer instability nearing 2000 J/kg, combined with steep lapse rates between 7-8km supports a few stronger updrafts could develop within a broken line of storms. Thus the SPC has maintained their marginal risk for severe storms mainly for areas east of line from New Ulm, MN, up to the Twin Cities Metro, then up through Taylors Falls, WI. Primary threats will mainly be an isolated damaging wind gust up to 60 mph and large hail around 1" diameter. Rainfall amounts wont be too exciting with areas seeing a few hundredths to a couple tenths of a inch with locally higher amounts limited to any stronger cells.

After the cold front shoves off to our south and east Friday night, we will receive a short break from the sticker conditions on Saturday. At least for the first half of the day, dew points fall back into the 50s with temperatures in the low to mid 80s for forecasted highs. The aforementioned troughing pattern will remain quasi-stationary over the Hudson Bay. This will transition our upper- flow to more zonal in nature allowing for of an active weather pattern for the weekend. The next shot of rain chances comes Saturday night as a weak wave provides a glancing blow mainly along the I-90 corridor. The following wave coming in from the Dakotas looks to have better localized forcing for us thus better chances of seeing rain/storms Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the evening and overnight hours. Skies will be SKC with winds out of the S at 5-10 knots. Elevated smoke will remain over the region, said wildfire smoke will not have any VIS impacts at the surface. Like previous mornings, isolated areas of fog development will be possible especially across western WI terminals.

During the mid/late morning and afternoon hours, a cold front will move across the forecast area. The front will move NW to SE during that timeframe. -TSRA will be possible along the front as it progresses across the forecast area. That said, high res models continue to show discrepancies regarding exact timing and location. Hence the PROB30s at RWF, MKT, and MSP. Confidence in direct impacts at these terminals is low. If -TSRA impacts are felt at terminals, MVFR to IFR flight categories will be possible.

After FROPA, winds will become NWrly around 10 kts through the remainder of the evening.

KMSP...Like previous discussions, we will continue monitoring the latest trends in high res model guidance regarding Friday's shower/storm chances. As of now, any development will occur during the afternoon hours, hence the PROB30 in TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S/SW at 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Chc for PM -TSRA. Wind SE at 5-10 kts. MON...Chc MVFR -TSRA AM. Wind E bcmg N at 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.