textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of drizzle will persist through much of the day today with clouds hanging around through the weekend.

- Drier conditions return next week with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

- Next chances for rain arrive late in the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Heavy rain has come to an end across the CWA early this morning. An area of training thunderstorms developed just north of I-90 in Waseca/Steele/Freeborn counties Friday evening and dumped some impressive rainfall totals of 5-7". But overall, southern and western Minnesota received 1-3" with amounts quickly tapering off to the north through the Twin Cities metro to only around 0.25-0.5" along and north of I-94. Overcast skies and areas of fog and drizzle are expected for most of the day as a slow moving surface low in Iowa continues to make its way eastward. As it does, winds are expected to turn northeasterly by early this afternoon, which should slowly begin to filter in some drier air by Sunday. However, extensive cloud cover will persist making for a fairly gloomy Fall weekend. Temperature wise, today will be similar to yesterday with maybe a 5 degree change from overnight lows to daytime highs.

By Monday, Canadian high pressure takes hold of the Great Lakes and we see our moisture really drop off through mid week. Prime radiational cooling conditions set up Monday and Tuesday night, which will allow lows to fall into the 40s and upper 30s for portions of east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Some frost is possible in outlying areas (particularly western Wisconsin), so this will be something we monitor closely heading into next week. There's not much else to be concerned about until the aforementioned high slides off to the east late Wednesday. Southerly flow starts to come back ahead of our next potential system on Thursday. Global deterministic models are in fairly good agreement with the timing/placement of a trough moving out of the Dakotas late in the week. However, given the very dry airmass that we are expecting ahead of this feature, the majority of the precip may end up being confined to our west. NBM PoPs are likely too low for Wednesday night/Thursday, but at this point there's still going to be a lot of variability. Highs creep back up into the low 70s by the end of the period with ensembles starting to hint at our next precip chance late next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Drizzle with LIFR/IFR stratus will stay with us through the morning, with the drizzle going away, but IFR cigs remaining this afternoon. Confidence continues to diminish with the cig forecast tonight. RAP soundings continue to show the low levels drying out, which shows up in the HRRR in the form of clearing that drops down from northern MN this afternoon. How aggressive this clearing will be is uncertain. There continues to be a large spread in the hi-res models in the stratus staying or clearing out tonight. Where there is a bit more agreement on at least a temporary return to VFR conditions tonight is in central MN, we'll see how far south improvements can make it through the night.

KMSP...IFR vis/cigs with drizzle will start us off for the first few hours of the TAF, with IFR cigs remain in place through the daylight hours today. The RAP continues to show pretty rapid drying out of the low levels between 3z and 6z tonight, so followed that idea with VFR cigs returning late tonight, though confidence remains low or even if we loose the stratus tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NE 10-20 kts. MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10G15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.