textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues through Wednesday, but humidity not as much of an impact.

- Best chance for organized storms is Thursday into Friday.

- Rounds of elevated wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest are expected throughout the week, but chances for surface smoke look low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Just to recap yesterday, MSP recorded an 81 degree dewpoint at 2AM (1 degree shy of the all time record) and then after mixing/drying out during the afternoon, it recorded our first 100 degree day since June of 2022. In a sadistic coincidence, yesterday was sandwiched between two days where the daily record is 100F, but had a 104F daily record itself. So we came up short of a daily record, but it was still a fun day for weather nerds in the Twin Cities. Eau Claire peaked at 95F, 7 degrees short of its daily record (102), and St Cloud had a high of 97F, 5 degrees short of its daily record (102).

We remain hot today, with perhaps a chance to over-perform again in some spots as dew points sit in the 60s. Winds will be fairly light as a stationary boundary sits across the Dakotas and southwest MN, and high pressure sprawls out just to the east. There continues to be at least some indication of potential for scattered showers to bubble along the boundary in southwest MN this afternoon. The boundary and afternoon storm chances then shift to east-central MN and northwest WI for Wednesday. Temperatures should also be quite warm again for Wednesday, with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

Thursday into Friday remains our best chance of organized rainfall, though there are some reasons to be cautious. Despite PWATs being quite notable (1.6"+), the main surface low may develop further south into southern IA or northern MO. That puts the Upper MS Valley in a region of weaker forcing and less widespread heavy rainfall. To play devil's advocate to myself though, the latest deterministic runs of the both the Euro and GFS show a northern solution with QPF amount of 1"+ across southern MN. Given our recent inability to see any appreciable rainfall, I am admittedly more pessimistic than usual. At the very least, this highlights an area of uncertainty with this shortwave. It is worth noting too, the SPC has introduced a Marginal risk for severe weather across western MN for Day 3. Any potential for storms and severe weather will likely depend on outflow boundary interaction and cold pool development.

Behind this system, a nice few days of closer-to-normal temperatures are expected. We do warm up again early next week, though a building shortwave may attempt to flatten out the seemingly never ending ridge across the western CONUS. Depending on how this pattern evolves, it may result in our next chance for organized precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

No significant weather for all sites. Winds will be at or below 5 kts for the majority of the period, becoming mostly S/SE by late morning. Mid-high level clouds stream across the region, with some fair weather cu expected during the day.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED PM...VFR, slight chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5kts. THU...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR pm. Wind SW 5kts. FRI...MVFR/-SHRA, chc -TSRA early. Wind SE to NE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.