textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected to make their return tonight. A few storms could produce large hail across I-90.

- A second round of severe storms is possible Wednesday afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.

- Below normal temperatures (highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s) through the end of the week, with a return to more normal (upper70s) this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Latest water vapor loop shows an area of low pressure currently centered over central Wisconsin. Directly west of this low, a wedge of dry air is allowing for mostly clear skies this afternoon across much of Minnesota whereas areas east are still under a blanket of scattered to broken stratus. Weak instability continues to exist with this are of low pressure and its expected to produce isolated to scattered showers and potential for a rumble of thunder for western Wisconsin counties over the next few hours. With cold air sinking in from aloft combined with weak shear, it is possible that one of these cells could produce a brief cold- air funnel. As for temperatures, most areas that escape the cloud cover can expect to reach the lower 70s this afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease as the sfc low over Wisconsin continues further east.

The next 24 hours will become much more active as a near stationary upper-level low will linger over NE'rn Manitoba. This will force broad and elongated troughing with and associated jet streak extending up from the Canadian Rockies, down through the Corn Belt and Great Lakes regions, then out through the NE'rn CONUS. This kick off a potential for multiple rounds of precip starting off with our next episode of rainfall tonight. An upper-level wave will develop a surface low near the Dakotas tonight which then tracks east-southeast during the daylight hours Wednesday. Rain and occasional thunder will start across western MN early this evening then becoming more widespread overnight. This first band should clear by mid- morning. The secondary band of showers and storms is expected to redevelop as the aforementioned low pressure moves east. Now, this is where timing will be everything. Areas east of this low feature a 30-40kt LLJ that will be coupled with NW'ly flow aloft that in turn promotes rotating updrafts. But the caveat is there is no overlap with instability here. Instability will build through the course of Wednesday but by this point, we will be west of the low pressure. Thus, we will be under more a speed shear environment with damaging winds and hail being a greater threat. The SPC has maintained a slight (2 of 5 level) risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Better chances for any of these hazards to occur are limited to southeastern MN and farther south. In terms of forecasted QPF, it is expected that areas mainly along and east of I-35 should see a half-inch or greater. Whereas areas across western MN could see closer to quarter inch or less.

By Thursday, a few areas could see remnant wrap around showers but kept with NBM mentions of low-end PoPs through this period. The elongated trough will remain in place from this time through the weekend. As mentioned in the previous discussion, is still difficult to determine how active our pattern will be. Given the spread varied results amongst ensemble membership, felt that NBM PoPs captured this uncertainty well. As for temperatures, we will remain seasonably cool though at least the end this week in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A broad band of -SHRA is beginning to move into W MN. This band of -SHRA will gradually trek eastward across S MN and into W WI overnight tonight. Winds drop off this evening and turn to the southeast before returning to low 20kts gusts tomorrow ahead of the sfc low pressure. Winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday afternoon - evening as the low pressure departs to our southeast. -SHRA will arrive from west to east after 00z with staggered timing across the sites. A brief lull in activity is likely overnight and into Wednesday morning. Additional showers and TS develop early Wed PM. TS looks confined to S/E MN and W WI. Left out any mention of TS in WI sites for now. Forecast soundings highlight likely MVFR with a period of IFR CIGS possible with heavier SHRA. VSBY looks to stick in the low VFR to MVFR range with brief dips into IFR Wednesday afternoon w/any heavier SHRA or TSRA.

KMSP... Initial wave of precipitation overnight into daybreak Wednesday shouldn't be too problematic. Cigs will lower after precipitation ends Wed AM. I've added a SCT010 group to reflect potential for IFR cigs without, but confidence isn't high enough to prevail with IFR cigs & coverage. A dry period from mid- morning through early afternoon before the second round of precipitation kicks off right over the terminal. I have maintained a PROB30 for -TSRA given the lower confidence on coverage. The PROB30 showcases our main period of potential -TS being roughly 19-23z, with the better convective environment south of MSP. Terminal will dry out by early evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.