textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record temperatures in the 80s on Saturday.

- Hot and windy conditions on Saturday could lead to fire weather concerns, especially in western Minnesota.

- Cooler next week with rain chances increasing Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Early this morning storms continue to occur to our south across Iowa, but storm motions and the overall forcing driving these storms will keep them well to our south. Today will see the start of the main push of the WAA in the afternoon/evening. This means right as the diurnal temperatures would normally start to fall this WAA will counteract this somewhat. This strong flow is tied to a low moving near the international border region around the AB/SK/MT/ND area. This is what gives us the flow driving this WAA. We will see the peak of this WAA on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures of 20 to 25 degrees C. This very warm air aloft will likely make Saturday start out with a temperature inversion which will limit wind potential early. This will not last though as the atmosphere warms during the day and mixing becomes favored. By afternoon wind gusts up around 40 mph will be possible, most likely along the Buffalo Ridge. With respect to fire weather, winds are a concern and so are the near record high temperatures. What will decide how much of a fire risk we get will be RHs, as current dew points in the NBM make this look borderline. However NBM often does not do well in these kind of days and there is a decent chance that the HRRR is closer to reality and this would suggest western Minnesota falling into the mid to upper 20s for RH.

The WAA continues into Sunday with another much above normal day expected. It will be late Sunday into Monday when we see a cold front, associated with the low near the international border, moves across the Upper Midwest and bring this abnormal warmth to an end. The actual frontal passage won't take a day and a half, there just remains some spread in the timing of this passage in guidance. Currently only low PoPs with this frontal passage as there is little upper level support. Even in the guidance that shows rain with this front it is only a few hundredths due this weaker forcing setup and questionable low level moisture. After a weekend with highs in the 80s the post-frontal air mass will support near normal highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Another frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday will give us our best chance for rain over the next week and another drop in temperatures. Unlike the early week frontal passage this one has ample upper level support with a rather pronounced trough moving across CONUS. This shows much stronger support in global ensembles, compared to Monday, with a strong signal. There are even members with a more soaking rain of a half inch or more. Currently the stronger signal remains to our northwest, but some additional shifts in track at this range is possible. Behind this front, high will likely only be in the lower to mid 50s on Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Mid-level clouds over central MN early this morning will continue southeast, giving away to high clouds by late morning. As stated in the previous forecast, VFR conditions are expected the entire period. However, northeastward lifting warm front looks to produce a stratocumulus field between 3500-5000 feet this afternoon into this evening. This is especially true over southeastern MN and western WI. These clouds will clear during Friday night. Southeasterly winds will gust to near 20 knots this afternoon with strongest gusts occurring at AXN. Wind speeds will decrease slightly into Friday night but then will increase by Saturday morning as the surface pressure gradient strengthens. South-southwesterly LLWS of 40-45 knots is expected early Saturday morning across MN as a LLJ moves overhead.

KMSP...VFR expected thru the period with a broken stratocumulus field developing near 4000 feet near 22z this afternoon. These clouds clear this evening. Southerly winds will gust to 25-30 knots during late Saturday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 15-25G35kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts. MON...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NNW 10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.