textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms are expected to develop over eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon. These will move into western and central MN this evening, with some strong to severe storms being possible before they dissipate overnight.

- There are Slight Risks for both severe weather and excessive rainfall Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Uncertainty remains with what latitude a west to east oriented band of heavy rain will fall Tuesday night.

- Heat and humidity start building again over the weekend, with potential for a heat wave increasing for Sunday into the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Regional visible satellite imagery highlights a bubbly Cu field across the region and a frontal boundary upstream over the Dakotas. Temperatures have warmed well into the 80s with surface dew point temperatures in upper 60s and lower 70s. This has made a warm, humid environment typical of Summer. Moderate instability has built into the Upper Midwest given the plume of moisture in place which will result in thunderstorm development across the frontal boundary over the eastern Dakotas this afternoon. This front will sag south over the next 12 hours or so bringing a decaying MCS across our western and central Minnesota counties. The SPC extended their slight and marginal risks further east to include portions of central Minnesota that were previously in general thunder. The environment in place is favorable from a wind/hail threat perspective, but timing will become an issue as storms press further southeast toward southern/eastern Minnesota and W WI. The loss of daytime heating should limit the threat of surface-based convection, but two scenarios could play out. 1) a decaying MCS moves into Douglas/Todd/Morrison/Stevens counties just before sunset and isolated damaging wind reports come in. 2) A cold pool is able to develop and a stronger MCS is able to move into those aforementioned C MN counties with a continued severe wind threat that continues deeper into MPX cwa. The lack of low level jet support doesn't favor continued development as the bow dives towards S MN and the Twin Cities.

Timing places it in are area between 00z and 02z this evening. Forecast soundings across the area show a favorable environment that loses instability quickly after the loss of daytime heating. Wind shear profiles are better to our northwest as they're able to tap into enhanced winds tied to the shortwave across southern Canada. Models agree that the line of storms will gradually weaken and likely dissipate before reaching the Twin Cities and points south/east overnight. These areas do not have a severe risk today or tonight, but later on Tuesday. Heavy rain is also a concern tied to the high PW values along and ahead of the boundary. Guidance doesn't support training or stalling storms so high end rain chances appear low.

Tuesday and Wednesday offer a similar set up. The frontal boundary will be draped across the region. There is some uncertainty with it's placement, but it should be somewhere over the MPX forecast area... likely the northern half. Strengthening jet level winds will support broad ascent Tuesday afternoon while a LLJ develops Tuesday evening. This interaction with the frontal boundary will be key to how widespread severe risk is and who gets what. We'll have a better handle of where after tonight's MCS, but the current favorite would be across west central/SW MN. Strong winds and large hail are the primary hazards for Day 2's Slight risk. Timing will once again be an issue as the convection moves into the area around sunset/after loss of daytime heating again. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to move along the boundary with with a Slight ERO, too. Training storms can lead to locally higher amounts of rain and a flash flood risk.

Wednesday will likely have lingering convection that'll taint the environment but redevelopment is likely once again. Severe threat is low but non zero and a Marginal risk is in place. The remainder of the period looks pleasant as an upper level ridge builds into the mid-mississippi valley region for the weekend. Model guidance brings a 600dm 500mb ridge centered over S MN this weekend. That'll lead to hot and humid conditions and push the storm track northward through Canada or "up and over" the ridge. The possibility of extreme heat exists, but it's too far out to have much confidence.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A low level cu field has developed this afternoon, streaming from Iowa up through eastern MN into northwest WI. The majority of sites will remain VFR with mostly FEW-SCT clouds at around 3500 ft, though occasional drops to MVFR will be possible. Otherwise, mostly quiet conditions expected until a decaying line of storms approaches from the northwest later today. AXN and STC still have the best chance of observing TS with the line, though there is still a chance for showers to continue as far south and east as the MSP/RNH line. Impacts are expected to be limited, especially given the time of night that any precipitation moves through.

Southerly winds remain light, around 5 to 10 kts, before shifting more southwesterly by tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Added in a PROB30 group for -SHRA overnight based on the continued signal for some semblance of a decaying line of storms to move southeast into the region. There is a better chance that the terminal remains dry, though a PROB30 group is warranted for the low end scenario. No TSRA is expected at this time, though if it begins to look like the storms are more sustained, then it may be added in future forecasts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE PM...Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5kts. WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.