textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold continues this week, with even colder temperatures arriving towards the weekend.

- Clipper system brings 2 rounds of light snow, the first this afternoon and evening favoring southern Minnesota into northern Iowa. The second round moves through the first half of Wednesday and is area-wide with lower amounts.

- The coldest temperatures of the season so far arrive to end the week, with wind chills as cold as -40F possible Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Clear skies and light winds this morning have allowed temperatures to drop into the upper single digits to mid teens below zero, thankfully without the bitter wind chills we were experiencing at this time yesterday morning. Winds are largely at or below 5-7mph favoring a westerly direction, with skies expected to slowly become cloudy again as our next chance for light snow arrives later in the day. Temperatures by this afternoon in the low to mid teens will feel around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday despite still being around 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Snow chances look to arrive by the mid afternoon in western Minnesota, moving southeast through the evening before ending after midnight. Given the colder temperatures, QPF amounts are rather light, however snow ratios are expected to be on the higher end for a fluffier snow that can accumulate quickly despite hourly rates that are not all that impressive given the rather meager omega stemming from the shortwave trough sliding through. There was a notable southward shift in the higher resolution guidance that has come into play as we approach the start time of snowfall, and with a potential band of heavier snow now more of central as compared to northern Iowa, the forecast has trended drier overall for our coverage area. Now, we are still going to see snow along I-90, with an inch or two expected along I-90 tapering off quickly to the north such that the Twin Cities metro is expected to see less than half an inch from this first round. There will be a small window where strong winds coupled with falling snow could result in brief whiteout conditions along I- 90, however both the duration and snowfall intensity seem a bit too small for true blizzard conditions which would favor the more intense snowfall for portions of Iowa.

A second round of snow develops from a second shortwave on Wednesday, however this one forms near the North Dakota/Minnesota/Canadian border and rides the trough south- southeast, resulting in snow that is a bit more widespread across our coverage area instead of Iowa. Timing wise it looks to arrive in west-central Minnesota after sunrise, pushing southeast across the area through the day before ending during the evening. There looks to be even less QPF within this second round such that additional snow accumulations for any individual location is expected to range from around a quarter to half inch, with the higher end of the range being three-quarters of an inch favoring southern Minnesota. As snow ends, there could be some lingering flurries into the evening and overnight, however accumulations should be done by the a few hours after sunset.

A rapid drop in temperatures is expected behind the second round of snow as arctic air flows southwards along a strong upper level jet, with 850mb temperatures dropping to -30 to -35C by the early morning on Friday. This will result in the coldest morning of the season and year so far with wind chills dropping as cold as -35 to -40F, with cold weather headlines expected to arrive as we get a bit closer into the middle of the week. High temperatures will range from -8 to -15F on Friday, once again dropping into the -15 to -20F range by Saturday morning. Thankfully we are not going to have strong winds as surface high pressure slides over the region, thus wind chills will *only* be 10 to 15 degrees colder than the air temperatures thanks to unimpressive winds. Highs on Saturday will still be below zero, but at least a few degrees warmer than Friday, with highs finally breaking back above 0 by Sunday. The stretch of colder weather continues into next week, however compared to Friday and Saturday each day will gradually improve. It isn't until an airmass shift potentially arrives by midweek that we see some larger relief from the cold.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

We begin the period VFR at all sites with some higher level clouds moving into western MN that will gradually overspread the area and lower throughout the day. -SN will arrive in western MN around 20-21z, spreading southeastwards and producing MVFR vsby at mainly RWF/MKT with chances at AXN/MSP/RNH/EAU. Brief IFR for vsby is possible, otherwise we see CIGS that bottom out around 1500ft. Winds will gradually shift as the snow moves through but remain rather weak, generally at or below 5-7kts.

KMSP...While we are expecting to see snow for a few hours between 01-05z, the guidance has trended south to the point where accumulations will be low and rates are not expected to cause significant impacts. Generally expect to see MVFR VIS and CIGS as the -SN rolls through. Another chance for -SN arrives after roughly 15z tomorrow, most like after 18z into future TAF periods.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. Wind W 10-15kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW to SW 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.