textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunder this afternoon, mainly across southern and southwestern MN.

- Marginal risk of severe weather (1/5) Friday for damaging wind gust and large hail risk.

- Temperatures still cooler than normal, but warming back up to normal (highs around 80) by next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A mix of clouds and sun will continue for the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures currently range in the upper 60s breezy NW winds gusting between 15-20 mph. Today's conditions feel like we more so in October than we are late-June. A weak cold frontal boundary that is coupled with an upper level low will continue to sink southeastward for the rest of this afternoon. HREF guidance does show some hints of maximized instability mostly confined to southwestern and southern MN. Albeit instability is limited to only ~500j/kg MUCAPE. The NBM primarily had its focus on PoPs southwest of the MN River Valley but based on latest radar trends, have manually increased pops to slight mentions in southern MN and western WI. Precipitation coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered at best which should prevent any evening plans from being rained out. Lows tonight fall to near 50 degrees for most with a few upper 40s across central Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin.

Friday appears to be a bit more active compared to today's forecast. Broad upper-level troughing over the northern plains this week finally begins to progress eastward. On the backside of this trough, another compact shortwave develops over the eastern Dakotas and moves SE'ward towards Wisconsin. There is some uncertainty between guidance on how tomorrow plays out in terms of precip. Moisture is expected to advected back up through the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow however dew points are expected to only creep up into the mid-50s. Additionally, remnant early morning precip could limit tomororw's ability for atmospheric recovery. MUCAPE values ranging between 500-1000 J/kg coupled with ~50kts of shear does raise enough concern for the SPC to issue a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. HRRR guidance is being the most pessimistic model with a few weak scattered cells that move through mid-afternoon. Other CAM guidance favor better organized multi-clusters and broken line segments that could produce isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. As for QPF, most areas can expect less than a quarter-inch through Friday evening with localized areas seeing closer to a few tenths of a inch with any stronger convection.

Once the shortwave clears our region Friday, high pressure becomes the dominant feature this weekend. It should be a nice one with temperatures in the 70s and dew points remaining in the lower 50s. Another low pressure system does scoot across IA/MO brining rain chances across Iowa. Southern MN as of now does feature low-end rain chances but the more likely outcome is dry forecast. Next week begins a gradual return to warmer temperatures near 80 degrees with another shot of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions expected through the evening and overnight hours. SCT-BKN CU at 5-8 kft ongoing for all terminals, SCT-BKN CU will dissipate around sunset with skies become SKC. Winds currently out of the NW at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts will decrease around sunset, quickly becoming less than 10 knots by 02Z. Winds will become light and VRB during the overnight and morning hours.

Scattered showers are likely tomorrow morning from west to east across area between 12-17Z. An isolated rumble of thunder will be possible embedded within the shower activity. PROB30 for SHRA and 4SM will remain in TAFs for all terminals for this issuance. CIGs will lower to OVC AOB 5 kft due to the aforementioned showers. Showers will depart by 18Z with winds becoming W/NW at 8-12 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible. ISO TSRA will be possible during the late afternoon and evening hours, with better chances for thunder during this round of activity.

KMSP...VFR conditions with decreasing winds and clearing skies this evening, lasting through the early morning hours. Rain showers expected expected 16-18Z with minor reductions to VIS and OVC at 5 kft. A second round of activity is possible during the late afternoon and evening timeframe, with better chances for thunder. PROB30 remains in the TAF due to activity being isolated to widely scattered. Winds during the afternoon will become westerly (northwesterly in the late evening) at 8-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT... VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts. SUN... VFR. Wind ENE at 5-10 kts. MON... VFR. Wind NE at 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.