textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widely numerous showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Lightning and brief heavy rain are the main impacts.

- Temperatures continue to hover right around the seasonal average for the middle of August.

- Next round of showers and storms will come Monday into Tuesday with another cold front passage.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

There is an increasing chance for scattered storms this evening as a weak cold front travels eastward out of the Dakotas. Latest satellite imagery shows a somewhat slowly deteriorating low level cloud deck across western MN while high-level anvil clouds overspread from the southwest. In the areas that have seen enough clearing, increasing dewpoints and warming temperatures have built in a pool of moderately unstable air. This destabilization combined with the weak forcing from the front are expected to support the development of widely scattered storms this evening. Most CAMs have aligned on this solution, with some more bullish than others. Confidence is low that everyone will see storms tonight, but the trend supports at least a broader coverage. Given the limited heating across eastern MN, we expect any storms that develop out west to wane the further east they get. Nothing severe is expected given the weak midlevel lapse rates and wind shear, though some strong gusts could be possible as the storms first develop across western MN.

As the front exits overnight, winds increase out of the northwest and bring in much drier air. While it may be breezy at times with gusts up to 20 mph, Sunday will be a very nice day with plenty of sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s.

Active weather returns Monday into Tuesday as an upper level shortwave deepens over the Hudson Bay. For the most part, Monday will remain nice with mostly clear skies. Increasing southwest winds will begin to advect moisture in though, resulting a slightly more humid day and a chance for late afternoon storms. Our latest PoPs have increased in the latest forecast package to match this trend. The better forcing for storm development comes late Monday into Tuesday as a southwestward-advancing cold front collides with the moderately unstable air. Depending on the timing of the front, the better chance for any severe weather potential may end up favoring Iowa rather than across our region. You can see this trend with the latest QPF as well, putting the bullseye more into northern Iowa rather than southern MN as it looked 24 hours ago.

Behind this front, temperatures cool off slightly on Wednesday, then gradually recover through the rest of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The main features of this period will be driven by a frontal passage. This passage will drive our wind shift and storm chances this evening. Ahead of this front winds are from the south and behind the front they shift to the northwest. Along the boundary there have been some showers, but little to no lightning. There is enough instability in the environment that sound TSRA is possible for MKT, but is unlikely at other terminals. Behind the front will also see some lower ceilings in the morning. MVFR likely with some areas of IFR possible.

KMSP...Any thunderstorm chances looks to remain to the south of the terminal area. Based on radar trends there might not even be rain in the terminal area this evening. There could be a period of MVFR in the morning, this should lift by the late morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Wind SW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.