textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain showers and mostly cloudy today.

- Cooler for the next few days with warmer temperatures towards the 2nd half of the week. Further rain chances arrive with the warmup.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The lingering occluded upper level low continues to spin over the northern Great Lakes, which will continue to give us sporadic cloud cover this morning and some wrap around rain showers later this afternoon. The lower level stratus continues to retreat to the southeast swirling around the surface low, with some mid to higher level cloud cover in central Minnesota struggling to become more widespread amidst the leading edge of subsidence stemming from an incoming Canadian high pressure center. The area between the departing system and approaching high pressure will produce just enough omega to force a few isolated rain showers this afternoon, with accumulations very light on the order of a tenth of an inch at most at any single location. By this evening, the upper level occlusion will have moved towards eastern Canada with northwesterly flow at all levels of the troposphere resulting in cooling temperatures across the area as the surface high rides the northwesterly flow towards the area. Temperatures in the mid to upper 40s for highs today will drop below freezing tonight, with lows in the upper teens in areas that saw more snowfall from our previous event in central Minnesota and up to the upper 20s in southern Minnesota. Highs will struggle to get out of the 30s on Monday despite sunny skies thanks to brisk northwesterly winds and the surface high moving closer to the area. 850mb temps on the order of -5 to -10C will ensure that even with full sunshine and mixing we are only going to be bringing further cold air to the surface, so even with the strengthening April sun angle it'll be a brisk day on Monday. With the center of the surface high moving through Tuesday morning, our coldest morning of the week and possibly our last time in the teens until next winter will occur Tuesday morning with lows in the mid to upper teens.

A rapid warm up is then expected over the 24 hours from sunrise Tuesday to sunrise Wednesday and flow switches out of the southwest ahead of a developing weather system over the northern Rockies, with a surface low forming on the lee side by early Wednesday. This surface low will produce a broad warm frontal baroclinic zone along its eastern flank, with a classic southwestern trough/eastern ridge setup resulting in access to not only warmer temperatures but also Gulf moisture by later in the day and into the rest of the week. Temperatures may cool down a bit again on Thursday into Friday as an upper level occlusion rides the northern jet stream across the area which brings a cold front from the aforementioned surface low, however we should not be as cold as earlier in the week with lows in the mid to upper 30s. This western trough/eastern ridge will be the key synoptic scale features to watch as we approach next weekend, with the multitude of ensemble guidance including the AIFS/ECMWF/GEFS all showing majority of membership with widespread precipitation from late Friday through most of Saturday. The exact placement of the synoptic scale features will be essential in diagnosing not only how much rainfall but also the potential for severe weather, and while the ensemble consensus is for precipitation, the actual placement of the surface low is still up in the air. For now, expect to see some wet weather towards the latter part of the week and next weekend, with some warmer temperatures as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The cloud cover wrapping around the low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes is retreated to the east and also scattering out, with some return flow in northern Minnesota bringing us at least some SCT/BKN low VFR to high MVFR towards sunrise. Within this flow, we could have some isolated -SHRA, however chances are generally at or below prob30 level, most likely closer to the departing system for RNH/EAU. Winds will trend stronger after 12z, with speeds increasing to 10-15kts with a few gusts to 25kts possible with a direction remaining 300-330.

KMSP...Generally went more optimistic in terms of CIGS compared to the 00z as forecast soundings show low level saturation struggling to maintain MVFR CIGS. As such, went low VFR by 19z, however we may be hovering right at that 030 level. -SHRA chances are 20 percent or lower, so omitted any prob30 mention for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. WED...MVFR/-SHRA likely, IFR possible. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.