textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread sub-zero temperatures tonight. Wind chills as cold as -20 to -25 across western MN.

- A clipper will bring the next chance of light snow Friday morning. Minor accumulations possible.

- Another system will slide through the region Saturday and looks to bring a better chance of accumulating snow (greatest potential across southern MN).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

On a normal day, one may think that the departure of morning flurries and stratus would signal warming temperatures -- however, that is not the case today! In fact, today's high temperatures were observed after midnight and have gradually dropped following the passage of a cold front. This trend will continue through tonight as an expansive ~1030s mb Arctic high builds in from the northwest. The coldest night of the season-to-date will send dinnertime surface temperatures in the single digits to well below zero prior to daybreak Thursday. Our latest forecast features morning lows between -5 to -7 in the TC metro and -10 to -12 for much of the rest of the forecast area. Wind chills will dip to between -15 to -25, though fortunately the presence of the surface high will promote light winds and limit colder apparent temperatures tonight. The forecast keeps STC/MSP/EAU above the current 12/4 minT record values, but with clear skies and the presence of a snowpack it will be worth watching temperature observations closely!

The center of the surface high is progged to move southeast over Iowa tomorrow. At the same time, a clipper within the broad northwesterly upper-level flow will dig southeast towards northern MN. Breezy southerly return flow to the northwest of the surface high and mid-level thermal ridging within the clipper's "warm sector" will work in tandem to bring a steady warming trend that begins after daybreak tomorrow and continues all the way through Friday. In other words, Thursday afternoon's temperatures in the low teens will be cooler than Friday morning's temperatures in the low 20s, which are forecast to continue warming into the upper 20s through midday Friday. The initial warm advective precip shield ahead of the clipper will likely setup across northeastern MN, largely missing our forecast area. However, we'll look to the trailing cold front to set the stage for a higher PoP/low QPF winter precip scenario Friday morning and afternoon. This is the type of setup that is poorly handled by the guidance, so it's not a surprise to see a lack of QPF from the NBM. We collaborated with neighboring offices to introduce a few hundredths of liquid into the grids by way of WPC's blend, which supports a coating to a half inch of snow accumulation. In other words, we may see just enough snow Friday to add a few more slick spots on the roads (similar to what we saw today). For now our ~40 PoPs are satisfactory, but would look for those to increase significantly should precip trends continue.

The active northwesterly flow pattern will send another shortwave along a remnant baroclinic zone (progged to setup from eastern MT to western IA) Saturday morning. This track is quite a bit farther south than the Friday clipper and would support a swath of snow over the Dakotas/the southern half of MN/northern IA. Despite the track of the wave taking on the clipper appearance, this system is a bit different in that it will likely have better moisture (Pacific influence/PacLow archetype). Still some questions in how far north/south the heaviest QPF axis will be and there are generally two "camps" in the guidance -- one that produces snow across south central MN/northern IA (EPS) and one that illustrates the best snow chances farther south (GEFS/GEPS). We have some time to work out the details, but it is worth noting that various deterministic and machine learning solutions support something closer to the EPS mean than the GEFS/GEPS blend. Should the northerly camp come to fruition, the setup would support the potential for at least a few inches (or more) of accumulating snow Saturday, with the highest amounts across southern MN and lower amounts as you head north towards I-94.

Another blast of sub-zero Canadian air will flow into the Upper Midwest following Saturday's shortwave. Latest NBM appears to have a much better handle on the depth of the cold air, with sub-zero lows now reflected both Sunday and Monday morning. By this point you're probably tired of hearing "Another system will develop within the northwest flow..." however that is indeed the case come early next week (and likely beyond!). Guidance advertises another shortwave digging into the northern Plains Tuesday, with an associated surface low forecast to track from northwest to southeast over Lake Superior. This track places the majority of the NWS MPX forecast area on the warm side of the storm system, which is evidenced by the expansion of a thermal ridge over the region Tuesday. This evolution will bring a brief reprieve from the coldest air, as warm advection aims to support temperatures climbing back into the upper 20s/lower 30s Tuesday & Wednesday. However, with temperatures near the freezing mark (and 850mb T's likely climbing above freezing), we could be talking about p-type issues once the low draws near and precipitation chances increase. Given that this storm is towards the end of the forecast period, did not want to advertise a freezing rain scenario in the grids just yet as the forecast will likely undergo some shifting over the weekend. However, if the current consensus were to verify we would likely have more of a messy p-type forecast on our hands heading into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

SKC continues through first half of the period until FEW/SCT250 by early afternoon. Winds turn light and variable overnights as a high pressure moves overhead. Winds ramp up and turn to the south by daybreak later this morning. Speeds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25kts possible across W MN. Stratus will begin to build in the final few hours of the period. I've added MVFR cigs to a few sites and low VFR to others.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind W 5-10kts. SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts. SUN...MVFR/-SN early. Wind NE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.