textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm today, ahead of another round of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday.

- Much warmer and more humid conditions by the middle of next week with highs in the 90s expected. Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Current observations highlight calm winds, mostly clear skies, and patchy of dense fog that has developed across the region. The expansion of fog is a bit uncertain, but we have sent out a special weather statement for dense fog across portions of western Wisconsin through daybreak. Fog will burn off rather quick after sunrise with mostly clear skies forecast for the remainder of the day. A weak sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes will usher in drier air as dew points fall out of the mid 60s to the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. Light and variable winds will turn northeasterly by late morning and easterly by tonight with speeds generally at or below 10 mph. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. It'll be a great day to tackle any outdoor projects you have put off from last Summer as a more unsettled stretch will takeover the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level low over the southern Plains will lift north into the Upper Midwest late Sunday and Monday. This allows a surge of high pwat airmass into the region. NBM PoPs are a fair depiction with precipitation likely Sunday late afternoon through Monday. Forecast soundings support 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE but not much else to work with in context of potential severe weather concerns. This should ultimately lead to on/off thundershowers that wrap up by Monday night. QPF amounts will vary given the convective nature of the precipitation with some locations ending up with little to no precipitation while others could see upwards of half an inch or more. E MN and W WI would be current favorites to benefit from the higher end of QPF for Sun/Mon precipitation.

Drier conditions return for Tuesday as ridging builds into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region and southwest flow ramps up across the central CONUS. Scattered convection will move through Tuesday night and possibly linger into Wednesday morning. The heat will peak on Wednesday with highs in the 90s and heat indices exceeding 100 degrees possible. Dew point values will top out in the mid 70s. It will be tropical. The one concern is that whatever convection does Tuesday night/Wednesday morning could dampen the high temperature on Wednesday afternoon. It wouldn't be a Summer in Upper Midwest without remnant convection throwing a wrench in the forecast. The one out could be the warm surge in the mid levels. 700mb temps will push into the 12C to 14C range that should act to limit convection through early afternoon on Wednesday. A potent cold front will move through and usher in relief from the heat and humidity. Showers and thunderstorms should develop along the front and pose a threat of severe weather across the region. NBM continues to over do the high temperatures mid-week likely due to warm bias correction. Ensembles support highs near 90 Tuesday and low 90s on Wednesday versus mid- upper 90s that the NBM is spitting out. Temperatures return to near normal post frontal passage with quieter weather likely into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Current satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies and light winds across the Upper Midwest. Winds will become calm at some sites that will set the stage for IFR to LIFR fog to develop. Worst of it will be across central MN and western WI. RWF/MKT/MSP will need to be watched for potential BR/FG and AMD if fog or low stratus expands into their terminals. Any FG will burn off quickly after daybreak. The remainder of today will feature VFR conditions with light NE winds. Winds will turn east by this evening. Speeds at or below 7 knots.

KMSP... Main uncertainty will be the proximity of fog and how widespread it becomes. I would suspect the worst vsby reductions stay away from KMSP, but a stretch of MVFR is possible through daybreak this morning. The remainder of today will be VFR, with northeast winds becoming east by the end of the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE at 10-15 kts MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind SE 10G15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.