textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of thunderstorms moves northeastwards across Minnesota into western Wisconsin this morning. Strong winds & brief heavy downpours are likely.

- Another round of thunderstorms develops this afternoon & evening, primarily across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, & a few tornadoes are all possible.

- Storms tonight will be slower moving, so a threat for heavy rain & flash flooding could develop tonight.

- Warm & muggy conditions continue into the weekend along with daily thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Another day & another overnight thunderstorm complex as we yet again watch a line of thunderstorms approach Minnesota & Iowa out of the central Plains. The high-end 70+ mph wind gusts potential does not look as likely with these storms compared to the ones last night, but we're still expecting another round of gusty winds up to 50-60 mph as they move northeastward through the early morning hours. HiRES models hint at some signs of the storms re-intensifying by mid- morning as they begin exiting eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin which could lead to an uptick in the threat for severe winds as well as hail.

It will take until mid to late morning for the thunderstorms to fully clear the area off to our east, so there is still some uncertainty on just how unstable the atmosphere will become by late afternoon when our expected round 2 of thunderstorms is expected to begin. The uncertainty lies more with just how far north we may see this second round of storms developing, as we should have sufficient instability for re-initiation given the warm & muggy conditions. Nearly every Hi-RES model initiates storms somewhere across the region by 5-6 PM, with a generally consensus favoring southern Minnesota through western Wisconsin into the evening. This is a southward shift of sorts from yesterday's forecasts & outlooks, thus we'll need to continue to monitor the mesoscale trends for further refinement as we get into the afternoon.

All modes of severe weather appear possible with the thunderstorms later today given instability of at least 2000 J/kg (more like 3000 J/kg across southern MN) along with seasonably high shear values of 35-40 kts. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threats, but large hail & a few tornadoes are also possible with CAMS suggesting a few rotating storms present at least early in the event during the afternoon & early evening. The threat for heavy rain & localized flash-flooding is also higher with the storms tonight compared to the last few days since these storms will be slower-moving & carry a risk for training as thunderstorm regenerate along a slow-moving front. Hi-RES models generally place the most extreme threat for 5"+ rainfall totals south of our area across Iowa, but there's enough of a signal present across our area to expect isolated amounts of 3-4" across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The heavy rain threat will continue into the overnight hours while the intensity of the storms & severe weather threat generally wanes by 10pm to midnight. Thunderstorms eventually move off to the east through the early morning hours.

Looking ahead - it'll be more of the same through the holiday weekend with muggy conditions & multiple chances for thunderstorms, including a severe thunderstorm & heavy rain threat. Details are heard to come by given the nature of the subtle waves generating these thunderstorm complexes, & the role any boundaries or remnant circulations left over by the, have on thunderstorm chances during the afternoon. Warm & muggy conditions will continue but the threat for excessive heat generally appears to be low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

SHRA/TSRA ongoing across the area, lasting through mid-morning timeframe. Instances of IFR to MVFR categories through mid- morning associated with this activity with 3-5SM visibilities and low CIGs.

Activity will move out of the area by 15-16z with BKN to OVC in it's wake. Skies will become SCT-BKN at 5-10 kft this afternoon with S/SW winds of 7-12 knots sustained and gusts to 20 knots. Another round of TSRA will be possible across southern half of MN late this afternoon and evening. For now, PROB30s are in the TAFs alluding to that. At this time, confidence is still a bit low with regard to timing and what terminals will see direct impacts.

KMSP...SHRA/TSRA ongoing across the area with prevailing SHRA through 15z, with TEMPO for 4SM and -TSRA from 12-14z for MSP. Isolated wind gusts of 20-25 knots during -TSRA. Activity should clear and be east of the vicinity by 15z with BKN at 5-10 kft through the remainder of the morning. Skies will become SCT-BKN at 5-10 kft during the afternoon with S/SW winds with gusts to 20 knots. Another round of TS this afternoon and evening. PROB30 timing was pushed back to 00-03z, confidence remains low as high res model guidance has a wide range of solutions. Hence the PROB30 in this TAF issuance.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Chc PM MVFR/-TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Winds VRB 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Winds E 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.