textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Best chance for widespread frosts and freezes this week comes Thursday night and Friday night

- Other than some occasional showers, rain chances for the next week will be small.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

This morning we find ourselves within the cyclonic flow of an expansive h5 low over northwest Ontario. This upper low will be in quite the battle with a Greenland block over the next 7 days. As a result, we'll see the upper low drift into eastern Canada this weekend, only to see it come back next week as it gets pushed back west by the blocking high near Greenland.

For today through Friday, we'll remain within the h5 lows cyclonic flow. We'll see numerous weak shortwaves in this pattern. For the most part, these waves will just result in cloud cover, though some occasional sprinkles or light rain showers can't be ruled out the next couple of days, but there will be nothing that would upend any outdoor plans. The main issue to watch this week will be overnight lows. The amount of cloud cover will determine how much of frost threat we'll have in particular, but a weak pressure gradient and light winds will lead to both Friday and Saturday mornings have the greatest potential for ideal radiational cooling conditions and lows getting down to near or below freezing. Again, there's nothing unusual about seeing lows around freezing at the end of April, but when the vegetation has decided to wake up a couple of weeks early, we will have the potential for some impactful low temperatures to end the week.

For the weekend, we get out of the cyclonic flow. This will allow temperatures to moderate back closer to normal, but it does not bring an end to nuisance rain chances. We will see continued shortwave activity dropping down in the NW flow. Our first shortwave of significance will come down Saturday night, with another for Sunday night. Both won't have much moisture to work with, but there should be enough with the forcing to scare up some light rain showers Saturday night and Sunday night. Again, nothing to derail your outdoor plans, with rather pleasant weather expected this weekend.

Next week, the main question revolves around how the h5 low evolves. The Canadian and Euro continue to be pretty aggressive with dropping the low into the Great Lakes by the middle of next week, which would result in another surge of cold air and a renewed threat for freezes. Besides the cold air, it would also keep the potential for the occasional light rain going. As for when we may see a more substantial pattern shift, it still looks like we're waiting until the second week of May before we warm up and also see the potential for more substantial rain chances return.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Only change to the TAF was to add a couple of hours of rain this morning to EAU as a batch of DZ/RA has developed in northwest WI in a region of deformation to the northwest of a shortwave currently going into southwest WI. Another area for potential showers are the returns we're watching dive southeast across NoDak. This will head for the MN River Valley through the afternoon, though dry low level air will make it tough to get rain to the ground, so kept TAFs dry for now. Also left the gusty winds for the afternoon in place, with RAP forecast soundings continuing to indicate we mix up to 10k feet where winds will be up closer to 30 kts, which would be the ceiling for any northwest gusts today.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NNW 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.