textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Southern MN into west-central WI will see the next chance of rain during Thursday as a system passes to our south.

- Our first shot at widespread sub-freezing temperatures is possible Saturday morning.

- Above-normal temperatures return to start next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Our entire CWA will be much cooler today as post-cold frontal air continues to push east into WI. Low stratus will also characterize most of today, limiting daytime heating. Highs today will only reach the low to mid 50s across western and central MN while areas to the south and east will see low to mid 60s. The stratus will begin to break apart as we progress through Tuesday night. Overnight lows will be chilly for western and central MN with mid to upper 30s expected. To the areas south and east, low to mid 40s are forecast. Temperatures will stabilize Wednesday into Thursday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The chilly overnight lows of mid to upper 30s will be more widespread over the northern half of the CWA Wednesday night.

Our next opportunity for rain arrives during Thursday morning as a cutoff low over the central Rockies moves northeast into the Central Plains. The rain shield north of the low's warm front will spread northeast into southern MN and west-central WI during Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough coming out of the western Canadian Prairies within the northern jetstream will dig southeast into the Northern Plains. Forecast models show the cutoff low and trough eventually phasing together, but likely not until reaching the Lower Great Lakes region. Thus, the odds of western and central MN receiving rainfall Thursday look very low. Overall, places that do receive rain shouldn't expect a soaker, but 0.25" to perhaps 0.5" is possible. After the trough moves east, it is forecast to amplify into the Ohio Valley. In turn, this will set up northerly flow over the Upper Midwest bringing a brief cold spell to end the work week. Low to mid 50s highs are forecast Friday, but more importantly most of the CWA could see sub-freezing lows Friday night. The potential for a hard freeze will need to be monitored, especially by those with sensitive vegetation outside.

Guidance suggests that the upper-level pattern will remain progressive as large-scale ridging moves east into the north-central CONUS, kicking the trough east also. Temperatures will rebound starting Saturday with mid to upper 60s (and possibly even some low 70s) possible by Sunday. Long-range guidance favors ridging across the Northern Plains to continue into mid-next week, greatly limiting rain chances and keeping temperatures above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

MVFR/IFR stratus will begin this morning with cigs slowly lifting to at least MVFR area-wide this afternoon. More northern terminals (AXN, STC, RNH) will likely remain in broken to overcast stratus the entire period. Terminals elsewhere should see at least brief visit to VFR late this afternoon into this evening as cigs lift and clouds begin to break apart. However, a return to MVFR looks more probable at MSP and EAU overnight as the thermal profile saturates. Northwesterly winds of 5-10 knots will slow to near or under 5 knots tonight and become more northerly early Wednesday morning.

KMSP...Added a TEMPO until 13z this morning for brief IFR conditions. MVFR will dominate until about 20z when cigs should lift enough for VFR. But, a return to MVFR looks likely after 09z Wednesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. THU...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind lgt & vrb bcmg W 5-10 kts. FRI...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 15-20G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.