textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers & storms continue today, with the chance for strong to severe storms decreasing this afternoon

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue tomorrow with a warming trend through the weekend back to normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The risk for severe weather has dramatically decreased this afternoon as our main batch of storms is exiting southeast already this afternoon. Additional storms will develop behind it with an area of clearing allowing for pockets of modest instability still. There is very little bulk shear with these storms, meaning for us to get anything severe it would have to develop strong updrafts that deepen quickly. The tornado threat will also decrease as the front moves through, though a prime environment for funnel cloud formation is setting up with the lingering storms this afternoon with a footprint of non supercell tornado parameter values near 4 (influenced by the increased amount of surface vorticity). These will not pose any major risk, and although they could produce a tornado, if anything is able to reach the ground it would be brief and very weak. Storms will wane off tonight as forcing decreases.

Thursday into Next Week... As the low moves east, breezy northwesterly winds will develop during the day Thursday and temperatures will peak just around 70F. All in all, it will feel more like a nice fall day with partly cloudy skies and decreasing dewpoints.

A passing shortwave will lead to increased cloud cover and storm chances again around midday Friday. We'll have a few hundred Joules of CAPE build in, allowing for scattered convection ahead of wave. Some low topped storms may produce small hail, however, given limited instability and moisture the threat for large hail does not look high at this time.

Northwest/partially zonal flow will continue into next week with additional chances for rain with any kinks in the flow. Temperatures will gradually warm over the next seven days, though staying generally in the 70s for highs each day.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The aforementioned surface low currently over western WI will continue moving ESE through the evening. SCT SHRA/TSRA remain possible across central MN and the MN River Valley through the evening. Areas along and north of the I-94 corridor will be mostly dry with and ISO shower or two possible through the evening, Including MSP, STC, RNH, and EAU. However, confidence is low so no mention of SHRA in TAF for those 4 terminals. It is worth mentioning, light drizzle will be possible over western WI through the evening with CIGs at or below IFR categories for EAU and RNH through the evening. CIGs elsewhere through the evening will be FEW-SCT at 2-5 kft with BKN-OVC at 5-10 kft. ISO instance of MVFR CIGs will be possible through the morning hours. Winds across the area, and for all terminals have switched to predominately NW at 5-10 knots, 10-15 for western MN terminals. Winds will slowly decrease through the evening and overnight hours, becoming 3-8 knots out of the NW by 08Z. Winds will increase through the mid/late morning at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots, remaining out the NW. CIGs tomorrow will be SCT-BKN at 5-8 kft.

KMSP...Not a lot of change from the 21Z TAF AMD. Surface low currently over western WI will continue moving ESE through the evening. Probability of SHRA/TSRA is greatest west and south of the terminal, west and south of the metro as well. However, and ISO rain shower will be possible through the evening, but confidence is low so not mention in 00Z TAF. CIGs will remain FEW-SCT at 2-5 kft with BKN-OVC at 5-10 kft through the evening, becoming LIFR to MVFR categories after 02Z. CIGs will return to VFR category by 08Z. Winds will be out of the NW at 5-10 kts through mid/late morning, becoming 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts by 16Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Chc of MVFR/TSRA. Wind W at 8-13 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind N at 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Chc of MVFR/TSRA. Wind E at 10-15 kts

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.