textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Partial clearing with decreasing dewpoints through tonight with dryline passing through the Upper Midwest.

- Cold front stalls over the region Monday, acting as a focus for organized showers/thunderstorms with potential for a few strong-severe thunderstorms.

- Additional chances for showers/thunderstorms through the week, highest coming Wednesday and Friday.

- Mild temperatures to persist through Friday, then dip back below normal for next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a surface low over far northern MN with a dryline sagging southward into the central- southern Plains, evidenced on satellite imagery by the clearing line having progressed east through the day and sunny skies breaking out. In addition, noticeably lower dewpoints over the Dakotas have edged east into MN as the dryline has plodded along eastbound. A cold front stretches nearly due west from the low over ND and MT to a clustered low over the southwestern Canadian Rockies. Aloft, from the Upper Midwest to the lee of the Rockies, much drier air and a ridge axis from eastern MT to the TX/OK Panhandle are advecting eastward, aiding in the clearing process over the central CONUS. However, a large trough sits over the Intermountain West to SoCal, where the clusters of surface lows linger and plenty of precipitation continues.

The passing dryline allowing for the clearing and drying has allowed temperatures to surge into the lower 80s for highs today, making for less muggy conditions. The mainly clear skies will be maintained overnight through sunrise, at which point the ridge axis will move across the Upper Midwest and the cold front north of the area drops to near the MN/IA border. Several consequences of this frontal passage are an increase in clouds during the afternoon, cooler temperatures (highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s), and a steep increase in dewpoints once again, bringing values back into the lower 60s. While mid-level capping will keep convection in check into the early afternoon hours, strong low-level jetting in the vicinity of the lingering cold front will aid in fairly quick thunderstorm development by the late afternoon hours. Steepening lapse rates (nearly 8 deg C/km), veering winds with height and the resurgent instability (MLCAPE increasing to over 2000 J/kg) will all aid in growing potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts, the latter if storms grow more organized into bowing segments. While the tornado threat is the lowest among the severe hazards, storms that develop near frontal boundaries will have the greatest chance of producing a tornado as model soundings do show large curving hodographs. CAMs show the better chance of organization mainly over the WI portion of the WFO MPX coverage area but a few strong-severe storms west of the St Croix River cannot be ruled out. The overall scenario has a lot of ingredients that need to come together at the right time, and this uncertainty has been played out over the past several days with there being varying misalignments between the CSU ML and SPC outlooks until the past 12-18hrs. This all still bears watching how the CAMs and model soundings evolve over the next 9-15 hrs up to convective initiation time, but the growing very large hail (hail over 2+ inches) potential has led SPC to elevate the severe risk on Monday to Enhanced (level 3 of 5).

Showers/thunderstorms will continue through Monday evening, then diminish appreciably through the early Tuesday morning hours as the surface low shifts into southern WI and the cold front as a whole travels south of the coverage area. There still may be some rain showers over southern portions of MN/WI Tue afternoon into Wed morning. The complicating factor for that timeframe is that an additional low pressure center developing near the NE/CO/KS triple point early Wed morning will eject ENE and merge into the stalled front. This low will become more developed due to the former western CONUS low devolving into an open trough, nudging the surface low along. Thia may help spawn additional non-severe thunderstorms in southern MN into western WI Wednesday evening. After a relative break in the action Wednesday night through Thursday night, another sweeping cold front looks to arrive for Friday in conjunction with a highly amplified trough swinging down from western Canada and across the lower 48. This trough will aid in dragging multiple lows with the cold front across the coverage area, bringing another likelihood of rain/thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest. The main difference here is that this end-of-week front is expected to bring a significant drop in temperatures for next weekend. While temperatures through the week will remain well above normal, this late week front will bring a modified Arctic air into the northern CONUS, sinking temperatures back to slightly below normal levels, including lows near and below freezing for the weekend and the potential of rain- changing-to-snow showers.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Strong southwesterly winds will relax significantly early in the 00z period. VFR conditions persist into the night, with high high clouds streaming over the Upper Midwest. Patchy fog is forecast to develop across eastern MN/western WI, so have included visibility reductions at MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU. Confidence is highest in the potential for a period of IFR visibility at RNH/EAU. Winds will increase out of the east/southeast after daybreak Monday. Generally VFR and quiet through the first half of Monday, before our focus shifts to a potential round of severe weather. Latest thinking is that a warm front will stall across south central MN and will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. As a result, we've included PROB30s for thunderstorms at most of the terminals after ~20z Monday. Confidence was too low to introduce a PROB30 at AXN with this package and it appears that convection may not reach EAU until just beyond the 00z period, so a PROB30 was not included. Anticipate -TSRA mention in forthcoming EAU TAFs.

KMSP...Gusty southwesterly winds will relax early in the period. Generally quiet overnight, though patchy fog may result in a period of MVFR visibility prior to daybreak. Winds increase out of the southeast through tomorrow morning. Made some changes to the afternoon/evening PROB30 based on latest convective trends in the hi-res models.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Wind NW 5-10kts. WED...MVFR chc -SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind W bcmg S in the afternoon 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.