textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms with strong wind gusts and 1" hail will be possible in west central WI this afternoon.

- Warm temperatures with highs in the 80s expected into next week.

- After today, dry weather expected until the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

It's been a fairly quiet night as we sit squarely beneath the developing omega block that will be with us the rest of this forecast period. The one area we've seen attempts at convection is northeast SoDak into southwest MN where pwats are still up near 1.2" and muCAPE is near 1000 j/kg. Like Tuesday, we should see some isolated to scattered activity fester here through about 9am before it dies off and we wait for another round of afternoon convection. As for convection this afternoon, lower storm coverage is expected today. We will again see around 2000 j/kg of mlCAPE this afternoon as temperatures push 90, but we'll have deep and dry inverted-v soundings and with a lack of forcing and we'll will likely struggle to initiate much deep moist convection. The one exception to this will be central WI. The batch of accas up in the Arrowhead at 2am is associated a shortwave that will be heading for Green Bay this afternoon. The HREF paints the potential for more robust updrafts developing over central WI during peak heating. Though storm chances look best out around Wausau, we could see storms build about as far west as Menomonie. Given the inverted-v soundings and the slightly better shear with the passing shortwave, one or two "angrier" storms looks possible out there, with marginally severe hail and wind gusts.

After today, the combination of the omega block in the mid levels and dry high pressure at the surface over the Great Lakes that originated in Hudson Bay will keep us in a mild and dry airmass that won't change much on a day-to-day basis. The climatologically most anomalous heat with this ridge will be up in central Canada, where highs well into the 90s looks likely for the prairies of Saskatchewan and Manitoba from Thursday through the weekend. Our airmass will not be as warm here, but we will see daily highs in the 80s, with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s, which will mean daily minimum RHs in the 20s and 30s. At MSP, our average high doesn't hit 80 until June 17th, so although not record level heat, we'll still be running with highs around 10 degrees above normal on a daily basis.

This omega block finally starts to break down the middle of next week. When it does break down, we look to move into a very summer looking pattern, with the hope for some rain chances returning, along with some humidity (so dewpoints in the 60s and possibly 70s) coming with the heat as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

For precip the rest of tonight, the concern for shra/tsra in western MN has decreased significantly, with that expected to remain where it currently is, eastern SoDak. With light winds and clear skies, we will have to be on the lookout for some radiational fog tonight. The site that looks most susceptible to fog tonight is EAU thanks to the nearly 0.7" of rain received around sunset, so we went aggressive with the fog there in the morning. For Wednesday, a few to sct high based diurnal cu field is expected, which will likely see some isolated shra/tsra. Given lack of confidence on if/where the afternoon round will get going, don't have precip mention at any of the TAfs during the afternoon at this point.

KMSP...TS coverage for Wednesday is expected to be less than what we saw Tuesday and at this point, the chance for TSRA Wednesday afternoon is under 20%, so we've kept any potential out of the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind ESE 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.