textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy winds diminish overnight, returning tomorrow alongside mostly sunny skies.

- Cooler temperatures throughout the week with highs in the 70s, followed by a gradual warm up into next weekend.

- A few rain chances this week including Monday afternoon into early Tuesday and Wednesday into Thursday. The best overall chance is Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The upper level anvil runoff from the decayed convection over Iowa has finally pushed through most of southern Minnesota, with a few more storms over north-central Iowa resulting in a small area of overcast skies along I-90. There are also some cumulus streaks throughout central Minnesota that have slowly been pushing southwards, with these cumulus expected to reach the Twin Cities metro and farther south later into the evening. There have been a few radar echoes in southwestern and southern Minnesota, however generally this has resulted in only virga as the forcing remains weak and there is a lack of significant moisture. IR satellite has further reinforced this with generally warm cloud tops, with a lack of glaciation and therefore lightning from any of the more ambitious cells so far today. Overall, we are not expecting any lightning nor really anything beyond a passing light shower for the rest of the day as tomorrow looks to be pleasant as high pressure strengthens west of the area and northwesterly flow continues aloft. Winds should be able to mix from aloft tomorrow during the daylight hours, resulting in 20-25mph wind gusts alongside sustained winds of 10- 15mph given the efficient mixing. The aforementioned high pressure to the west will push away from the area during the afternoon on Monday into early Tuesday as a weak cold front from a weak system over southeastern Canada moves through, with just enough forcing to squeeze our some isolated showers and storms mainly Monday afternoon and evening before falling back overnight. No severe weather is currently expected but some rumbles continuing into the overnight hours remains possible.

Wednesday looks to be the best chance for more widespread showers and storms through the forecast period as a surface low strengthens underneath a shortwave pushing through the northwest flow resulting in our best synoptic forcing for the week. Between the global ensembles, there is still some spread mainly around the arrival time of showers, with the GEFS a bit faster than the EPS which is faster than the CFS, but there is strong agreement in at least a few tenths of an inch of precipitation for most of the area as showers become widespread into midday Wednesday. The shortwave and surface low push through and begin to exit the area overnight, with showers and storms ending for most of the area by midday Thursday, although some lingering lighter showers/storms remain possible into the evening. As we wrap up the week and head towards next weekend, upper level flow begins to tilt more towards the west but remains west- northwest, with another shortwave possibly bringing some showers late Friday into Saturday. There is also a fairly broad area of weak WAA and moisture flow into the central plains on Friday, which may enhance the local environment enough to squeeze out a few more showers/storms into Saturday. There is still enough uncertainty especially within the timing, however the forecast trend over the last few cycles has been to favor increasing chances towards the end of the week. Alongside the showers/storms, we will end up a bit warmer thanks to the low level WAA and moisture advection, with not only warmer temperatures but also higher dew points meaning a more humid weekend next week than at present.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Model guidance has been slow to pick up on the expanding cumulus field over central Minnesota as well as the spotty showers in southern Minnesota, thus went more aggressive with this TAF compared to guidance in introducing some lower level cloud cover for the first 8-12 hours of the period. There is a non-zero chance for -SHRA at MKT but also not quite enough to introduce a prob30 group, and the chance for -TSRA is below 10 percent as well. A few of the cumulus south of Redwood Falls have produced anvil-type cloud runoff, however IR satellite shows these as too shallow to produce any lightning and that is most likely to remain the case. Winds will remain gusty at 20-25kts through 00-02z, diminishing afterwards but returning by the end of the period. After the cumulus dissipates after 00z, we can expect FEW/SKC towards the end of the period.

KMSP...Introduced a BKN050 CIG based on the upstream cumulus as well as a few of the short range CAMs showing some better moisture return compared to 6 hours ago. We could deviate between SCT/BKN050 starting at 20z and lasting through 02-04z, however we should remain VFR throughout. Gusts diminish after the lower level clouds erode, returning after 16z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind W 10-15kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. WED...-SHRA/-TSRA/MVFR likely, chance IFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.