textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers possible across far southern Minnesota today, then better chance for widespread rain Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures continue through the week.

- A more active pattern should unfold next weekend into early the following week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A pool of rich moisture stretches along the MO River Valley this morning from Missouri up to South Dakota. Widespread heavy rain is ongoing across the central Plains with showers extending into central and southeast SD. The axis of better pwats will expand eastward today, which may allow for a few showers to reach far southern MN. Otherwise, extensive high clouds will stream over portions of the Upper Midwest with little sensible weather.

A system traversing east along the U.S./Canadian border Monday will bring increasing pwats by Tuesday. Progged pwats have ticked up a bit from yesterday, but remain near or slightly above climatological norms. Mid level lapse rates have also become slightly steeper, but remain poor. A cold front will pass through during the afternoon, accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms. The low will sink southeast along the Mississippi River to southern Wisconsin Wednesday. Wrap around showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may continue into Wednesday evening, especially north of I-94. Troughing with cool temperatures aloft and pwats remaining around 3/4 inch could bring a few isolated diurnal showers through the rest of the work week. The majority of locations will remain dry. Temperatures will remain below normal in the 70s.

The pattern will undergo transition by the weekend. A large trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest with many solutions eventually developing strong surface low pressure over the northern U.S. Rockies or the Canadian Rockies. The evolution of the trough is still of low confidence with high spread in temporal and spatial details. However, very deep moisture will likely advect north from the tropics characterized by pwats possibly exceeding 2 inches. Steep lapse rates overspreading the moist warm sector should result in rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

High clouds will continue to spread across the region today. Any precip is expected to stay confined to far southern Minnesota, so all our TAF sites will remain dry. KEAU is dealing with some localized fog this morning, but otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds are light and generally easterly.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON... VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. TUE... Mainly VFR with PM -SHRA. Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind S to SW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Chc PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.