textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected late this evening through the first half of Saturday.

- Heat and humidity returns for the second half of the weekend into the start of September with low PoP chances throughout the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

High clouds have started to stream in ahead of an ongoing area of showers and storms in central North Dakota. These showers will continue to diminish as they arrive in western Minnesota by this evening. After sunset, a strengthening LLJ and the main shortwave will arrive and shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase during the early morning hours. QPF wise, both deterministic models and ensembles can't see to agree on where the heaviest axis of precip will fall. There have been dramatic shifts in the precip placement from not only model to model but run to run as well. A wide footprint of around a quarter inch seems reasonable with localized amounts near or just over a half inch somewhere across central Minnesota. SPC did pull the SWODY1 Marginal Risk further east across western and southern Minnesota for the potential that storms grow upscale with a damaging wind risk early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, instability is lacking for the risk of more widespread severe weather.

Rain will end from west to east across far western Minnesota by mid morning with showers hanging on into the afternoon for western Wisconsin. Clouds will be slower to clear, but some afternoon sun is possible for western and southern Minnesota. Southerly winds turn easterly by the evening with a frontal boundary stalling out somewhere across southern Minnesota. Storms are possible again Sunday afternoon, and these could pose a higher risk for severe weather given a much more favorable environment. This front will stick around into early next week with daily chances of showers/thunderstorms, but any widespread, prolonged beneficial rainfall does not seem very likely at this time. Additionally, highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s through at least the middle of next week, which is about 10 degrees above normal. This, combined with Tds in the mid to upper 60s/near 70 means that summer-like weather will hang on as we head into meteorological Fall.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Very little change from previous TAF issuance. Winds will be light at 5-10 knots through the day, out of south to southwest. Sky coverage will slowly increase as well, becoming BKN at 15-25 kft by this afternoon and evening.

PROB30s for -TSRA has been introduced for all Minnesota and Wisconsin terminals, starting at 07z out west and progressing eastward through the overnight and morning timeframe. Exact timing will likely be adjusted at future TAF issuances, but for now expect shower/storm activity during the overnight and Saturday morning timeframe.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected through the day with light winds at 5-10 knots and sky increasing in high level cloud coverage. PROB30 for -TSRA has been introduced this TAF cycle. At the moment, guidance has been pretty consistent regarding timing, around 11-14z timeframe.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. SChc -TSRA. Wind S 8-13kts. MON...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 4-8kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.