textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today and tomorrow, followed by a midweek warm up with rain chances returning by Tuesday evening.

- Temps continue to warm by the weekend, with wet weather expected to arrive during the weekend and persist into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The second of a stretch of three cooler nights is underway with the main difference between last night and tonight being more widespread lower-mid level stratus clouds that are keeping us a few degrees warmer. The result is temperatures generally above freezing in the low to mid 30s as opposed to upper 20s to low 30s like yesterday morning at this time, however unlike yesterday persistent northerly flow will keep temperatures cooler throughout the day as highs struggle to get out of the 30s. Alongside the northerly flow, cloud cover will keep the sun from being widespread which will also make it feel generally cooler compared to the relatively sunny skies yesterday afternoon. The coldest night of the three will arrive overnight tonight with lows in the teens thanks to -10C temp anomalies as a broad area of high pressure slides over the area allowing for temps to crash a bit. On the heels of the surface high, a developing surface low over the western Dakotas will reintroduce warm air advection with a broad warm frontal boundary resulting in a strengthening baroclinic zone Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will quickly be warming both at the surface and aloft such that an hour or two of light snow is possible as precipitation arrives, however it will quickly swap over to a cold rain as the warm-up looks to continue into Wednesday. By midday Wednesday, the surface low will have migrated to south-central Manitoba mirroring the upper level occluded trough, with rain continuing into the afternoon before weakening into the evening. Temperatures will crash a bit again Thursday night due to the cold front, however precipitation should be ending fast enough due to the speed of the entire system such that snow on the back end seems unlikely at this time. Thursday morning will once again be near to slightly below freezing, and how low we drop will ultimately depend on how much cloud cover can survive post-fropa.

Another broad but overall weaker surface high looks to move into the central plains on Friday, bringing near to a bit above normal temperatures Friday and pushing any lingering precipitation to the southeast before riding the southern stream jet towards the southeast. The result of this movement will be a broad region of southerly flow spanning all the way from California to the Gulf reaching all the way north to Saskatchewan and Manitoba, including our area by late Saturday. Depending on which set of guidance you look at, a surface low is likely to spin up on the lee side of the Rockies by Sunday morning with a broad area of low level omega due to the persistent and abundant warm air advection ahead of the surface system resulting in fairly widespread rainfall. The main question is if we see thunderstorms, with forecast soundings showing a fairly steep capping inversion due to the strength of the warm air advection from roughly 850-700mb. Precipitation looks to persist into the start of the week and perhaps last as long as the entirety of Monday through early Wednesday as ensembles show fairly remarkable consistency in the surface low stalling over the region. The EPS mean shows roughly a half inch of QPF per day from Sunday through early Wednesday. Given the setup, if we manage to keep a consistent stream of Gulf moisture advecting northwards while the surface low stalls over the area, a persistent multi-day rainfall is possible. Given the timing being over a week out things are still able to change, but there is remarkable agreement for a forecast 7- 10 days away.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR through the 18z period. Morning stratus continues to drift southeast and mix out of the picture as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Northwesterly surface winds will remain breezy through the afternoon as mixing continues, which may support few to scattered Cu ~3-4k feet over area terminals. Winds relax and any Cu will dissipate this evening. Winds turn southeasterly and sustain ~10kts after daybreak Tuesday. High clouds will increase from the west Tuesday afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chance IFR. Wind S to W 15-20G30kts. THU...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.