textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms likely Tuesday. Low chances lingering into Wednesday, then chances increase late week and this weekend.

- Cooler than average temperatures continue this week, then warmer and more humid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

High pressure continues to build in this morning from the north. Skies have largely cleared from the mid level clouds of yesterday and winds are very light. Today will be a pleasant day as temperatures return closer to normal and winds remain light. Some diurnal CU are expected to develop again this afternoon. A weak low pressure center over southern Saskatchewan will progress east today then southeast to MN Tuesday. Progged pwats continue to show an increasing trend and may reach an inch and a half Tuesday ahead of a cold front. QPF has thus also increased with totals now on either side of a half inch. Some CAMs have large swaths of greater than an inch and will depend on thunderstorm development. Lapse rates remain suboptimal, but are now near 7 C/km across western MN during the afternoon. Despite that, clouds and showers will keep the boundary layer stable and CAPE aloft is long and skinny. There is plenty of shear available, but whether we can squeeze out a few stronger storms will depend on how much CAPE can develop. This profile looks more like a heavy rain one than a large hail one, but some storms could produce at least some small hail. Wind is not much of a concern with the stable boundary layer and relatively light winds up to 600 mb.

Cyclonic flow will continue shower and thunderstorm chances into Wednesday, especially north of I-94. Coverage will be highest in northern WI/MN where the boundary layer will remain moist with CAPE up to 500 J/kg. South of I-94, profiles are drier and an inversion around 700 mb should keep much development from occurring. The pattern remains similar into Thursday, but a little drier air farther north results in less instability, and aside from maybe an isolated shower, looks dry.

By Friday and the weekend, a large trough develops across the western U.S. while a ridge builds over the southeast. The resultant southwest flow aloft should bring a more active pattern with ample moisture streaming north from the Gulf. Shortwaves embedded within the southwest mid level flow will spark periodic thunderstorm complexes across the central U.S., likely remaining tied to a warm front. The warm front should begin to approach Sunday, which appears to be our best shot at some of these.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Mid level clouds periodically through the period. Winds will remain AOB ~5 kts.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...-SHRA/MVFR likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SE to SW 5-10kts. WED...VFR, chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.