textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures over the next week with record highs possible on Saturday.

- No major systems over the next week with only a few chances for light precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

With a large ridge overhead and even the jet stream to our north today into Saturday will see significantly warmer than normal air move into the Upper Midwest. This will allow for temperatures on Saturday to rise into temperature more typical of early June than late March. Check out the climate section below for how likely we are to see records broken. This warmth comes to an end as the jet stream moves back to the south on Sunday. This shift will bring temperatures down closer to normal with highs in the 40s (normals in the lower 40s). Temperatures then slowing warm throughout middle of the week under a zonal flow. Still uncertain how much we warm by the middle of the week with about a 20 degree spread between the NBM25 and NBM75 for highs. This is due to a spread in the ensemble members and systems in how far north the next ridge gets. Behind this another cool down as the jet stream digs farther south, but only to near normal again by the end of the week.

On the precipitation front there are not many chances as these air masses move through the Upper Midwest as moisture remains a challenge. The period of high confidence in moisture will be Saturday morning which could contribute to some radiation fog dependent on how the winds end up. Early Sunday morning could see a chance for some light precipitation but there is a large spread between systems with the ENS fairly confident, but the GEFS and GEPS staying dry. They are all more confident more into northeast Minnesota and the spread is in how far south it extends. This makes sense as the main area of forcing is farther north such that it will be harder to get as much down south. Then we move into early week high pressure before some more light chances midweek. Still a lot of spread midweek as for how much this impacts us. This will depend on how the trough and jet streak evolve as there remains significant spread here within ensemble members and systems, just as mentioned for temperatures above. As both of these precipitation chances come with air mass changes from warmer to cold it could very well see some snow mix in, especially on the back end of either event.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

With the morning stratus that was over many of the eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin terminals finally dissipating, VFR is expected for the rest of the day today. For most terminals, EAU as the exception, the snowpack has melted. This lowers the chances for morning snowmelt fog. There could still be some more patchy fog in the morning, but with significantly less snow this is less likely. Overall the main aviation impact will be shifting winds. Current northerly winds will shift to the south tonight and then to the west tomorrow. Our warm day tomorrow will help mix stronger winds to the surface so some gusts up in the 25 to 35 mph range possible in western Minnesota Saturday afternoon into evening. The highest winds are likely to be to be after the end of the TAF period though and are not in this set of TAFs.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind N 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW to S 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-15 kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

With the warmest temperatures so far this year forecast on Saturday, March 21 here are the comparisons between record highs and our forecast highs for our primary climate sites.

Site | Forecast High | Record High ----------------------------------- MSP | 76 | 76 (1938) STC | 72 | 75 (1911) EAU | 73 | 77 (1911)

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.