textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for thunderstorms Saturday & Sunday morning across western Minnesota.

- More widespread rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Dense fog across much of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin this morning has lifted to a bank of stratus clouds that has been slow to dissipate this afternoon. A sharp contrast in temperatures is present across the area thanks to this cloud cover, with temperatures remaining in the 70s under the clouds & already round 90 degrees where it has been sunny all morning. Very muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will create heat index values near 100 degrees south of the cloud cover from the southern Twin Cities metro through western Wisconsin & southern Minnesota. Elsewhere it will still be warm & sticky, although drier air off of Lake Superior is beginning to advance southwards through central Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin. This drier air looks to remain in place through tonight, which may limit whether we see another night of widespread fog into tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be cooler tonight as well so still expecting some fog across the area, although it may be constrained to more rural & low-lying areas of central Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin.

A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to form over the dakotas overnight, & most high-resilution guidance tracks it through at least far-western Minnesota during the morning hours. Raised PoPs tomorrow morning west of the Minnesota River Valley, & can't rule out some gusty winds & small hail with the thunderstorms tomorrow morning. Easterly to northeasterly flow looks likely to hold through Saturday, which should help to keep temperatures & dewpoints more comfortable than the last two days. Cloud cover from the western Minnesota storms could keep temperatures even lower, but for now expect highs in the mid-80s with lower dew points in the mid 60s.

Additional chances for thunderstorms come Saturday night into Monday morning, mainly across western Minnesota, with a more widespread chance coming Monday into Tuesday when a more defined shortwave passes through the region. the most likely chances for a soaking rain will be closer to the upper level forcing across northern Minnesota, but ensemble guidance is at least showing moderate chances for at least 1" of rain into central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Dry weather continues of we miss out on rain chances Monday- Tuesday as cooler & drier northwesterly flow develops through the rest of the week. temperatures still look to be above-normal however, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Low stratus is making the slow westward creep from WI into MN at initialization, with the expectation that all sites will be dealing with IFR ceilings prior to sunrise and lasting potentially into late morning. Ceilings will likely drop to between 400-800ft, potentially as low as 200ft which may come along with visibility restrictions. By late morning and continuing for the rest of the TAF period, the low level moisture will be scoured out and VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will remain NE to E throughout this duration with speeds under 10kts.

KMSP...Low stratus will likely be realized at MSP by 08z (if not 07z) and persist past sunrise and potentially to close to 18z. IFR initially expected, with LIFR ceilings possible. Ceilings look to rise into low-range MVFR before clearing out altogether for the afternoon-evening hours with only high clouds remaining.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. TUE...SHRA/MVFR likely with chc TSRA, mainly in the morning. Clearing late. Wind S 10-15kts becoming W. WED...VFR. W 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.