textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and flurries possible through tonight for far southern MN and western WI. Accumulations a couple tenths of an inch at most.

- Quiet weather through the rest of the period with temperatures cooling into the weekend before rebounding next week. Next chance for active weather looks to be midweek next week, however confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Satellite imagery continues to show the remnants of what was our mesoscale snow band that produced over 6 inches of snowfall yesterday for portions of the western and southern Twin Cities metro, with a slow movement northwards as the surface low underneath an inverted trough spins over Lake Superior. The surface low has weakened significantly as the upper level forcing moved out of phase ahead of the surface system, thus the forcing for ascent which resulted in the snow showers is largely absent, as is the intense winds and frontogenesis that resulted. What this means is that although the satellite signature looks similar to yesterday, the clouds are thinner with far weaker omega through the layer, resulting in flurries at best in an otherwise dry forecast. The best chance for a bit of light snow resulting in a dusting up to a couple tenths of an inch are farther away from yesterday's system, that being a secondary system staying south of the area from a secondary trough and surface low centered in northern Missouri. All this to say, the majority of the area is experiencing low impact weather today with a few flurries possible in a few separate areas, those being central Minnesota close to the Lake Superior weakening surface low and far southern Minnesota/western Wisconsin associated with the secondary system. For the rest of us, the main result will be continued cloudiness tonight lingering into tomorrow.

The extended forecast looks fairly quiet with the main features being shifting temperatures as some cooler arctic air flows into the area via northwest flow in the low to mid levels, with 850mb temperatures dropping to -10 to -15C below zero or roughly mid single digits to mid teens Fahrenheit. A bit of this colder air looks to mix down to ground level over the weekend after our skies clear out and general subsidence is seen as surface high pressure slides across the region, resulting in high temperatures in the 20s and lows hovering near 10 degrees for most of the area Saturday through Monday. Winds will shift out of the west to southwest by Tuesday thanks to a developing surface low over the eastern Rockies heading into the northern plains, giving us weak to moderate warm air advection and returning highs to the 30s. Warmer temperatures are then expected to persist into the latter half of the week with continued above normal temperatures beyond the 7 day period. The aforementioned low pressure system and upper level trough placement are uncertain, so the exact degree of warming is a bit uncertain but given the time of year, 30s to maybe low 40s seem probable. Active weather could also arrive depending on where the low pressure system/trough track and their relative strength, but for now both deterministic and ensemble solutions are generally pretty flat as far as a stronger system goes. Out of the suite of ensemble membership, generally less than 5% of members have a significant weather system over the area with 60% or greater maintaining a completely dry forecast. For now, low end slight chance PoPs seem like a safe bet, with more info to follow as the forecast hopefully comes into clear view after the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Pretty steady-state weather conditions the next 24 hours, with northwest winds and MVFR/IFR clouds expected to continue through Friday. Forecast soundings show potential for a few very light snow showers or flurries at times, but for now did not include a mention of snow in the TAFs since no accumulation is expected. Otherwise expect winds to increase this evening, with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts at times.

KMSP... MVFR conditions throughout. Winds will be northwest throughout. A few flurries are possible, but no snow accumulation is expected. Winds will increase overnight, with gusts near 20 kts through Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-20 kts. SUN...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW 15-20 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW at 05, becoming S at 05-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.