textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures continue for the next week.

- Chances for rain exist Wednesday night into Thursday, Saturday into Saturday night, and again early next week. None of these look to provide much of a threat for severe weather or excessive rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

500 analysis early this morning shows the beginning of a Rex Block pattern with a ridge building across central Canada into Hudson Bay. The location of the ridge will promote the development of high pressure over the Great Lakes. A high pressure that will play an important role in precipitation chances into next week as dry air associated with it will make it tough to get rain chances east of I- 35.

Although we have this ridge to our north, you can still see a nice spin on water vapor imagery near the Quad Cities and it is feature that has helped keep clouds across far southern MN with the occasional spit of light rain. For the rest of today, where you see clouds this morning (southern MN, then up the Buffalo Ridge) will be where we continue to see the most cloud cover today, but we will at least get to see more of the sun today that we've seen over the last few days. By tonight, we will see mostly clear skies, with the coolest night of the week expected, with lows dipping into the upper 30s from the area of Mille Lacs over to northwest WI. Wednesday will see increasing clouds in western MN, but that Great Lakes high will hold any precip back west in the Dakotas.

Wednesday night into Thursday will bring our next chance for rain. What is interesting about this rain chance is the NBM wind forecast shows no indication of a surface front moving through, with that feature washing out in the Dakotas before reaching MN. However, the plume of increased moisture, with PWATs between 1.5" and 1.75", will push on without the front. It's this plume of deeper moisture (PWATs near 180% of normal) that will allow for showers to move across MN Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Coverage of showers will be greatest in western MN (where PoPs are now in the 80s) that tail off to less than 20% by the time you get to WI. We think the 00z RRFS has a good general idea of what to expect, with showers and thunderstorms developing over western MN Wednesday evening, that will work east through the night, likely falling apart before reaching the I-35 corridor Thursday morning. Instability looks to be enough to drive a thunder threat, but not a severe weather threat.

Friday will likely be another cloudy day, with plenty of mid and upper level moisture remaining, but there's no forcing precip, which means yet another day with temperatures staying in the 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Saturday will see a shortwave work across the Dakotas into northwest Ontario. This will pull another plume of increased moisture across MN Saturday into Saturday night, kind of similar to what we'll see Thursday. Saturday doesn't look like a washout, though for MN, some scattered showers are looking increasingly likely. The closer to WI you get on Saturday, the more influence you'll have from the dry high pressure over the Great Lakes, which will again make life difficult for rain to push into that drier airmass.

Again we dry out on Sunday before we see another attempt at a frontal passage early next week. There's still a good deal of spread with what will happen early next week. The GFS has continued with the idea of stronger system and associated cold front working across the area Monday night, but the ECMWF has backed off on this idea, instead keeping the ridging and dry high pressure locked into the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Not many changes to the going TAFs with less cloud cover expected today as compared to what we've seen the last few days. Winds will be persistently out of the east, with VFR conditions prevailing at all MPX terminals.

KMSP...No additional concerns

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts THU...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SSE 5-10 kts FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.