textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues through Wednesday, but dew points in the 60s should make it a little more tolerable than the past few days.

- Rounds of elevated wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest are expected throughout the week, but chances for surface smoke look low.

- Precip chances increase late Wednesday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The cold front has moved through, allowing for some relief from the oppressive Tds we saw early this morning. Northwesterly flow has brought elevated wildfire smoke back in from the Pacific Northwest. This will continue to be the case throughout at least the first half of the week. Models indicate that the majority of this smoke will remain elevated, but surface smoke isn't out of the question for far western Minnesota. Surface wise today, temperatures have once again reached 95 or better early this afternoon across southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin where a Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening. High temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal in the upper 80s/low 90s with a few low chances of spotty afternoon showers and storms. PoPs may need to be increased Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, but for now any impacts look minimal. NBM did introduce some 15-20% PoPs for Wednesday, which appears reasonable.

We don't see any widespread/organized precip chances until Thursday. A trough moving along the top of the ridge centered over the southern Rockies looks to dig southward across the Dakotas/Minnesota before potentially evolving into a cutoff low late in the week. Widespread rainfall and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday through Friday. With PWATs increasing to 1.6 to 1.8", we would expect these to hopefully bring the region some much needed precip. QPF totals range from a quarter inch for central Minnesota to an inch or better to the south. This system looks to meander around the western Ohio River Valley into the weekend, which would allow our western Wisconsin counties to see continued low shower chances into the weekend. Following the bulk of the rainfall Friday, temperatures do fall back into the mid 80s, but this looks to be shortlived once again with 90s possible early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Quiet 18z TAF period. Northwesterly winds gust between 20-25kts this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Skies are mostly clear over the terminals, however satellite reveals the presence of wildfire smoke aloft. Since the smoke is elevated, I did not include any mention in the new TAF package, but will monitor observational trends through the period. Guidance displays mid to high clouds moving out of the Plains tonight, however clouds levels are forecast to remain at VFR levels. Winds turn out of the ESE for Tuesday and should remain light, between 5-10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. TSRA likely in evening. Wind SSW 5-15 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin- Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan. WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunn-Eau Claire- Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.