textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered storms are expected in western and central Minnesota Friday into Friday evening before the arrival of a prolonged dry spell through the weekend and into next week.

- A long-lasting heat wave will develop and affect the region through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

It is a quiet night throughout the region with mostly clear skies, light winds, and temperatures that have cooled to the low- to mid-60s. A few patches of fog have developed this morning but are expected to mix out after sunrise. To our west, a broad, weakening cluster of storms is located over the southwestern Red River Valley moving southeast, which will affect western MN this morning as the complex continues to decay. Later this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are likely to redevelop. Weak cyclonic vorticity advection out of the eastern side of upper-level ridging that is building on the east side of the Rockies will combine with 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE to create a somewhat favorable environment for scattered convection. Bulk shear values of 20-30 kts could allow a few storms to produce some hail along the rather meridional instability gradient that will set up over western MN, with this convection likely being limited to just the western and central parts of the state. The strongest storms could meet severe thresholds for hail, as reflected in the marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for western MN in the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook.

The weekend will signal the start of a long-lived and noticeable warming trend as ridging continues to build over the Plains. This ridge will be centered over the Upper Midwest early next week while strengthening to anomalously high heights. The 18Z ECMWF continues to suggest that the ridge may strengthen to a remarkable 601-602 dam at 500 mb while centered over eastern SD and western MN Monday and Tuesday, and while the 00Z GFS peaks at only 600 dam, these height values would still break the local upper air record of 598 dam as noted in previous discussions. Temperatures and heat indices will unsurprisingly be quite warm across the region, but not as high as the heat that accompanied the end of June. Most of the low-level warm air advection will be out of a surface high centered over the Lower Midwest that will serve as a regional minimum in theta-e values. As a result, low-level moisture advection into our area will be limited, keeping heat indices lower than those that will be seen in the Dakotas, as well as those seen within the MPX forecast area a few weeks ago. Nevertheless, high temperatures in the low 90s and heat indices potentially approaching 100 will necessitate at least consideration for heat headlines as we approach the start of next week, especially in western MN and the Twin Cities metro. We expect to stay dry through at least Tuesday, before mid- and long-term model guidance suggests that cold fronts could then return to disrupt that pattern towards the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Aside from potentially some sunrise ground fog in far southern MN into western WI (i.e. MKT-RNH-EAU) due to sufficient radiational cooling conditions, VFR conditions are expected throughout this duration. Mid-level diurnally-driven mid-level clouds are expected to develop from late morning onward into the evening hours today. Precip chances are quite low, but non-zero over far western MN. Thus, a few isolated showers are possible over AXN-RWF but timing/placement confidence too low to include mention at this point. Winds will run pretty light, under 10kts throughout, with mainly SE to S directions from late morning into this evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN-MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 8-12kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.