textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy for most of today with isolated rain showers moving through by late afternoon. Accumulations under a tenth of an inch at most.

- Quiet weather returns tomorrow, turning wet Saturday into Sunday with rain chances persisting into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A swath of low level stratus continues to move through southern Minnesota this morning stemming from a weak surface low spinning over northern Lake Superior, with the weak cold front being the primary cause of the clouds. There has been gradual clearing/fracturing of the cloud deck on the southern end such that we may end up seeing only half sky coverage by sunrise. The last of the gusty winds have pushed through along the front as well, with a few lingering 20mph gusts possible in western WI through sunrise before winds calm further throughout the day. A weak surface high rides the southern end of a weak trough into the region today resulting in cooler temperatures than yesterday, with a weak upper level jet streak introducing some upper level divergence which may result in a few showers moving through this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings from the HRRR/RAP show omega that is likely far too high, and as a result they are producing around two tenths of an inch of QPF across the area as the showers slide through. The RRFS meanwhile has much weaker omega which fails to fully saturate the boundary layer, leading to weaker precipitation with the highest amounts on the order of a tenth of an inch, which seems more reasonable. This is one of those scenarios where the weak forcing coupled with dry air in the lower levels means it will be feast or famine in regards to rain with this round moving through, with the showers more of a nuisance than anything substantial. Some of the earlier guidance such as the 00z HRRR even tried to produce some light snow showers, however despite being shallow there is enough warm air near the ground to keep anything from accumulating.

The broad area of high pressure will linger over the region on Friday, resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. Temperatures are looking to be a bit cooler than previously forecast, on the order of low to mid 50s for highs as opposed to 60s, however still above normal for this point in April. The arrival of what looks to be a few days of frequent rainfall will occur Saturday morning on the heels of the departing surface high as broad synoptic lift from low level warm air advection ramps up along the baroclinic zone produced by the departing cooler air associated with the high pressure, with scattered showers as early as sunrise increasing in coverage throughout the day. Forecast soundings produce up to 500 J/KG of elevated CAPE which could produce some thunderstorms as well, however aside from some pea sized hail we more than likely escape anything aside from the rumbles of thunder. The heaviest hourly rainfall rates look to arrive in the early morning hours of Sunday before sunrise as some shortwave energy in the mid levels combines with continued low level warm air advection ahead of the developing surface low to produce a broad area of lift, with moisture also streaming northwards from the low level winds. The surface low looks to stall towards Monday and slowly drift across the area through Tuesday, producing further precipitation although not as heavy as Sunday morning. As the surface low stalls, the trough over the eastern Rockies will begin to amplify producing lobes of vorticity riding the southwesterly flow into the area, with further rounds of precipitation continuing until early Wednesday. Temperatures will also warm significantly by Monday and Tuesday thanks to the lower level warm air advection, with highs in the 70s and some 80s possible, however this will also ultimately depend on the degree of precipitation and cloud cover. Some guidance is producing a wintry mix on the tail end of the system on Wednesday, mainly the CFS/GFS which produce some colder air from 925-700mb, with the ECMWF much warmer keeping things as only rain. For now, the blended guidance from the NBM gives us a small chance for a rain/snow mix in central Minnesota on Wednesday morning as the system finally exits the region, with confidence too low to deviate significantly from that forecast for now.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Low clouds have done a good job of staying confined to central Minnesota early this afternoon. KAXN is solidly MVFR, KSTC is hovering right on the edge of VFR/MVFR cigs, and the remaining terminals have come back up to VFR. High clouds are streaming in from the west ahead of a weak disturbance over the Dakotas. This may lead to some -SHRA late this afternoon into this evening, but there remains some uncertainty in whether precip will be able to overcome the dry air in place at the low levels. Have transitioned some PROB30 groups to prevailing (western Minnesota), but kept a few PROB30s further east. Winds have slowly been on a downward trend and that is expected to continue through this evening with light northwest winds through the end of the period. Skies are expected to clear by early Friday morning.

KMSP...Maintained the -SHRA introduced in the 15z AMD for this evening. Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/-SHRA, chance IFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 10-15kts. SUN...MVFR/-TSRA, likely IFR at times. Wind S 15-20G30kts. MON...MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W to E 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.