textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A 15-30% chance of light snow in western MN during early Wednesday morning. Accumulations of less than an inch are expected.

- Gradual warm up this week with the warmest day on Thursday. A slight cool down through the weekend before continued above normal temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Morning lows have dropped into the negative single digits over our northern CWA as clear skies have allowed for strong radiational cooling. Surface high pressure over south-central Canada will slowly slide southeast into WI today, allowing for mostly sunny skies into this afternoon. However, even with the sun, continued northerly flow will mean highs only warm into the teens. Clouds will increase again this evening into tonight as a subtle mid-level wave passes through. These clouds will keep lows from dropping too much, especially across southwestern MN where low teens are expected. A band of flurries may also move through the area early Wednesday morning with the wave, so have added 15-30% PoPs across MN. Once the wave passes, a very small portion of the strong thermal ridge over the western CONUS will try to work into the Northern Plains on Wednesday. Thus, highs are forecast to be slightly warmer in the lower to mid 20s. Thursday looks to be much warmer as forecast models show a bigger lobe of the thermal ridge extending into the Northern Plains. 850 hPa temperatures of 6-8 C should be over western MN by Thursday afternoon, resulting in abnormal warmth for early February. Currently, have highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s for most of the area. But, extreme western MN has the greatest boom potential for warmth with mid to perhaps even upper 40s possible.

A shortwave and attendant cold front will sweep through the Upper Midwest Thursday night, which cools us slightly for the end of the week. However, temperatures look to still be above normal with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s through Sunday. Some light snow and/or freezing drizzle may occur Thursday night over western WI with the aforementioned shortwave. NAM and GFS forecast soundings in this region show a subfreezing thermal profile with saturation that extends from the surface into the lower zone of the DGZ. While accumulations will be light, freezing drizzle could cause slick conditions with the Friday morning commute. Heading into next week, the forecast looks relatively uneventful precipitation-wise as no strong, organized waves look to be on the horizon in the long-range models. The bigger question is, "How warm will we get next week?" Long-range ensembles show the thermal ridge that had been over the western CONUS migrating into the central CONUS by early next week. This will bring a much warmer air mass into the central CONUS, close to MN/WI, such that there will be opportunities for very abnormal warmth for early February. Long-range ensembles generally favor multiple days for highs of at least mid 30s at MSP throughout next week. The EPS and the 00Z ECMWF are the most aggressive with the warmth with multiple days of at least 40. We'll have to see if these temperatures come to fruition, but the upper-level pattern during next week looks unsettlingly "summer-like" for early February.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

MVFR cigs are inching southwest toward EAU, but at this time not anticipating the deck to reach them before breaking up. Otherwise, mid level clouds will work east from the Dakotas through the day. A low chance for light snow or flurries at AXN and RWF late tonight. Light winds through the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.