textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather concerns increase this weekend as a result of warming temperatures and strong southerly winds.

- Near record temperatures expected Saturday.

- Cooler next week with rain chances increasing midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

A low amplitude trough across the Great Lakes and New England is providing west northwest flow across the Upper Midwest. Some mid/high level clouds are streaming overhead this afternoon. Despite the clouds, temperatures have responded with early afternoon readings in the 60s. We should gain another few degrees over the next few hours, especially if enough sun breaks out from the clouds, and some low 70s are likely in spots. Clouds will clear out tonight and early Friday.

A substantial warming trend will take place this weekend as the trough lifts out and strong ridging builds across the central and eastern U.S. Surface flow will remain southeast Friday, which will limit the degree of warm air advection. Still, highs in the 70s are expected. A broad area of low pressure will develop across the northern Plains Saturday. Southerly flow will strengthen and impressive warm air advection will begin late Friday night. Low temperatures will occur Friday evening, then rise through the 60s overnight, possibly into the low 70s by sunrise Saturday. Winds may gust to 40 mph on the Buffalo Ridge toward morning, then those gusts should overspread the region by late morning as mixing deepens. With full sun all day and deep mixing expected, temperatures will easily reach their full potential. 925 mb temps of +23 to +25C suggest highs in the mid to upper 80s. As such the forecast has been increased, but not quite to the NBM 90th percentile yet. The 90th percentile has not been warm enough during the past few days, so there may be some upward adjustments yet. It will be interesting to see if we can break 90 one more time this season. The record Saturday is 90 at MSP, which is also the latest 90 on record. Low temperatures are also in jeopardy with 62 forecast Friday evening before rising late and 68 Saturday night. Records for both nights are 63. The cold front will hold off until later Monday, so the very warm conditions will persist through at least Sunday night. Highs in the 80s are again expected Sunday. Model spread increases significantly Monday due to the timing differences with the front. Best chances for precip will remain north, with the frontal passage trending drier across southern MN and WI.

The very warm airmass brings elevated fire weather concerns. Deep mixing and very warm temperatures will likely allow RH to drop at least into the 30s by afternoon. If they drop into the low to mid 20s, critical fire weather conditions will occur. This type of pattern in October and November usually leads to an overprediction of dew points with RH verifying lower than predicted, particularly across western MN.

Following the front Monday, cooler air will settle in across the northern CONUS through at least midweek. By Wednesday, a trough over the Rockies will spawn and area of low pressure over the western High Plains, then tracks it northeast late week. There remains quite a bit of spread in this quickly evolving pattern, but generally precip chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday. Depending on the track of the system, it may be warmer or cooler than upper 50s to mid 60s as is currently forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

High pressure moving overhead tonight will result in light and variable winds that will be slowly settling in from the east through the night. Mid-high level clouds will persist through much of tonight, but the main cloud concern comes in the late afternoon as a warm front moves through. REFS is not over aggressive with development of low clouds with this front, but forecast soundings from the RAP/GFS support the development of stratocu during the late afternoon that would be MVFR (IFR in central MN). Given the lack of low clouds in the REFS and LAV, didn't introduce low cig restrictions, but this will be something to keep an eye on.

KMSP...We have VFR conditions throughout, but RAP soundings support cigs in the 2k to 4k foot range between 20z and 3z. Given the lack of enthusiasm for low clouds with the REFS/LAV, didn't pursue this potential too hard, but it will be the only thing to watch weather wise this period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 15-25G35kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts. MON...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.