textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty showers and an isolated storm possible over western and central MN this afternoon. Showers likely for portions of northern WI tonight. Next chance of rain is Thursday.

- Our first shot at widespread sub-freezing temperatures is possible Saturday morning.

- Above-normal temperatures return to start next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

High temperatures across the region today look a little goofy as a surface front is slowly making its way south and east, while early morning cloud cover is playing a big role too. As of 1PM, you can see the warm airmass situated over southern MN up towards the Twin Cities metro and over towards Eau Claire, WI. Here, temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s. Eau Claire is giving a run for its daily record high of 86! Areas north and west of this airmass are much cooler, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. There is a tongue of slightly warmer temps that lifts up along and north of the MN River Valley though, with plenty of sunshine helping warm things closer to 70 within this corridor.

A surface low is beginning to develop over southern MN this afternoon as large scale forcing increases. This will eventually help usher in the cooler airmass for everyone in the Upper MS Valley, dropping lows into the 40s and 50s tonight. This system is also expected to trigger spotty showers or isolated convection as it moves east this afternoon. Areas across western and central MN remain favored for any precipitation, though amounts continue to look fairly light (about 0.1" or less).

Temperatures cool down closer to normal for the rest of the week, with another shot at rain developing Thursday as a cutoff low over the central Plains and a northern shortwave impinge on each other over the Midwest. It may end up being the case where we fall somewhere in between the two areas of forcing, and as a result, don't receive much rain at all. PoPs remain highest across southern MN into WI where up to a couple tenths are possible, and confidence continues to trend down for areas further north.

Potentially the bigger impact from this wave will be the drop in temperatures on Friday, and more specifically Saturday morning. Clear skies and northwest winds advecting in a cooler, drier airmass will both support efficient radiational cooling Friday night. Temperatures by Saturday morning could drop below freezing for much of the upper MS Valley, with the only real exception being the core of the Twin Cities metro. Regardless of how cold we can get to end the week, upper-level ridging is expected to build back in to start next week which would feature another round of above normal temperatures... though not as warm as we have been this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Slowly but surely, summer is exiting stage right this evening. In its wake are MVFR/IFR cigs. These will slowly overspread the MPX area overnight, with a couple hour delay in MVFR cig onset needed with this 00z set. After that, it's just a question of when do we return to VFR cigs Tuesday afternoon, well a return to VFR unless you're at AXN and possibly RNH/EAU. For winds, we will see gusty northwest winds develop in the MN River Valley tonight as the surface low pulls off to the east, but speeds will be coming down on Tuesday as the pressure gradient relaxes.

KMSP...MVFR cigs are still out west of OVL and BDH, so did delay arrival of MVFR cigs out to 6z. Current model spread puts a return to VFR cigs between 18z and 22z on Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. THU...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind lgt & vrb bcmg NW 10-20G30 kts. FRI...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 15-20G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.