textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms possible this afternoon to evening. Strong wind gusts are the primary concern, especially in western Minnesota.

- Quiet Tuesday, followed by our best chance for showers and storms this week throughout the day Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain near normal in the mid to upper 70s for highs through the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Satellite has continued to show cumulus bubbling underneath a scattered cirrus deck that has persisted throughout the day, the main consequence of which is the surface thermal profile ahead of potential showers and storms later this afternoon and evening. There are a few storms ongoing in portions of South Dakota that have produced some wind gusts around 60mph (base severe thunderstorm level), and these storms will be moving into western Minnesota within a couple hours. Most high resolution guidance maintains the presence of showers and storms through Minnesota before they weaken after heating ends this evening, with winds being the primary concern even from decaying cells later in the event. Timing wise, we will start to see some showers in western Minnesota within the hour, with the best environment along the upper level shortwave lagging behind the leading edge by an hour or so. The Twin Cities impacts look to start closer to 7pm, ending rapidly as we start to cool cutting off whatever instability we have remaining. Even as instability dwindles to nothing, we could see a few strong gusts from collapsing storms as late as 9pm as showers persist into western WI into the overnight hours. Generally, we expect some gusty winds to cause some isolated impacts, but widespread severe weather is not expected with most of the activity more likely to be covered via Special Weather Statement than Severe Thunderstorm Warning given the environment. As of 230pm, our neighboring offices to the west in Aberdeen (ABR), and Sioux Falls (FSD) have one severe thunderstorm warning for some reported 60mph gusts and a Special Weather Statement for potential 40-60mph gusts respectively.

Showers look to exit western WI a few hours after sunrise with Tuesday showing a window of clearing between the departing/weakening showers to the east and another round of showers and storms from the west by the evening to overnight. High resolution guidance that reaches through the first half of Wednesday including the 12/18z HRRR/RRFS have begun to resolve an MCS type feature Wednesday morning as a nocturnal LLJ couples with upper level forcing via left exit region of an upper level jet streak. With surface temperatures in the low to mid 50s during the morning, instability will generally be the limiting factor with the wind threat being most apparent if we see some heavier showers and evaporative cooling momentum enhanced gusts. An early-Spring strength surface low will spun up and track along the aforementioned left exit region of the upper level jet streak coupling with the mid level shortwave to produce a strong surface low, and based on the track would result in some area wide showers and perhaps a few weak storms throughout the day with showers departing early Thursday as the surface low pushes over the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings continue to show some instability building during the day, however aside from a brief window in the morning for western WI and perhaps far southern MN depending on the low track, we are not located in the idea position for severe weather with the better focus being to our south in portions of Missouri, southern Iowa, and Illinois.

A weak Canadian high moves into the region behind the departing system to end the week but we maintain our northwesterly flow aloft in an almost clipper-like winter pattern, bringing potential for more shortwave energy and isolated showers and storms into the early weekend. Ensemble guidance across the board is much less enthusiastic about precipitation chances after Wednesday's system until at least early next week, with fairly low confidence in individual systems beyond the weekend such that the forecast is likely to change as we get closer. Temperature wise, the GEFS produce a more amplified pattern towards the end of the period resulting in some gradually warming temperatures, with the EPS flatter pattern keeping us in the mid to upper 70s for longer and even into the end of the month.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Thunderstorm activity has greatly diminished as we have gotten later into the night. A few showers will continue to move across Minnesota and Wisconsin overnight into the morning. Generally VFR with some chance at MVFR during periods of rain in the morning. Tuesday in general should be more of a break between rounds of rainfall with VFR conditions. There is a chance that the next round could start for western Minnesota sites by the end of this period, but confidence was not high enough for TAF inclusion yet.

KMSP...Another round of now mainly rain showers to the west will track over the airfield later this morning. Based on observations to the best this looks like VFR rain with few impacts. Winds will pick up and fall again along the usual diurnal trend today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind SE bcmg NW 5-15G20 kts. THU...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-15G20 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.