textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms & locally heavy rainfall across far-southern Minnesota continue into this morning.

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected tonight & through the overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts & locally heavy rainfall are possible with these storms.

- Warm & muggy weather continues into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A stationary front remains stalled out across far-southern Minnesota overnight, which has allowed for thunderstorms to constantly regenerate along the boundary. Most of the thunderstorms activity so far has been across southeast Minnesota & southwest Wisconsin, but ne development is beginning to spread northwards out of northern Iowa. These thunderstorms are slow- moving, meaning locally heavy rainfall is expected with rainfall rates up to 2" an hour given the rich moisture over the region. Some areas could see rainfall amounts up to 4" by the time the thunderstorms begin to wane late this morning/early this afternoon.

Elsewhere, a dry day is expected with warmer temepratures near 90 degrees as the precipitation & cloud cover mostly remains southeast of the area. dew points will continue to be muggy, but not excessively so with heat index values topping out this afternoon in the mid-90s. CAPE values up to 3000 J/kg will build by late afternoon/early evening along wit deep shear values near 30 kts, setting the stage for another round of potentially severe thunderstorms later tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to initially develop late this afternoon across central Dakotas, where they will merge into a line or multiple clusters of storms & eventually move into western Minnesota this evening. It's uncertain exactly when & where this complex of thunderstorms may track is it moves east through the night, as has been the case with most of the thunderstorm complexes this week. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard with these thunderstorms followed by a low chance of a few spin-up tornadoes. The greatest severe threat will be across western Minnesota as the thunderstorms are expected to diminish slightly as we get closer to midnight, but wherever the thunderstorm complex tracks through the night will have a threat for gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, although this threat will be higher across southern Minnesota, where a separate area of slow-moving thunderstorms is expected to develop during the overnight hours. Thunderstorms will be waning after sunrise with dry conditions then expected through most of Friday. But wait! There's more! Another thunderstorm complex looks likely to develop across the Dakotas Friday evening & track eastwards through Minnesota & Wisconsin during the night. This thunderstorm threat looks to be highest across southern Minnesota & damaging wind gusts will again be possible.

Temperatures look to be cooler in the low to mid 80s through the Holiday Weekend, but the muggy dew points will continue. pretty typical 4th of July weekend weather around these parts. There will be some scattered thunderstorms to dodge saturday evening for any fireworks displays but the chance for any widespread thunderstorm complex & severe weather does look lower than previous days. We may even see a few dry days develop Sunday into early next week as Canadian high pressure moves into the Upper Midwest. Looking-froward, no end in site to the warm & muggy conditions with more of the same continuing through next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions expected through most of the period. Areas of fog remain in place across central MN terminals with VIS less than 1 mile at RWF, STC, and RNH in western WI. Fog will slowly dissipate over the next few hours. FEW-SCT250 expected through the morning with winds light AOB 5 knots and generally S/SW or VRB in direction. Winds will become 5-10 knots during the late morning and afternoon timeframe. There still remains a bit of uncertainty with regards to afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA potential across the area. Guidance continues to show a wide range of outcomes through the period. HREF ensemble reflectivity > 40dbz paintball output shows a not so confident depiction of afternoon/evening storms, therefore forecast confidence is low. Hence no mention of afternoon activity in this TAF issuance. Updates will be likely at future TAF issuances when high res guidance depicts activity a little better. PROB30s do exist in the TAF for all MN terminals late this evening and early overnight for -TSRA.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected through the morning hours and through most of the afternoon and evening. Winds light AOB 5 knots and VRB or southerly in direction, winds will become 5-10 knots by late morning and afternoon timeframe. Skies FEW- SCT250 through the day. FEW at 5-10 kft will be possible during the afternoon hours as well. Guidance continues to show another round of evening and overnight showers and storms. PROB30 exist in the TAF for MSP late this evening and early overnight for -TSRA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 knots, becoming E. SAT...Chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds NE 5-10 knots. SUN...Chc AM SHRA/TSRA. PM VFR. Winds E 5-10 knots

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.