textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers today east of I-35.

- Turning warmer Sunday, with highs in the 80s and even 90s expected Sunday through Thursday

- Low chances for disorganized thunderstorms at times next week, but no widespread rain is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A surface low this morning is tracking slowly north across eastern NoDak, with its cold front slowly pushing east across western MN. This cold front will slowly work east across the MPX area today. Ahead of it, a plume of deeper moisture will result in cloudy skies, though as the surface and upper low travel deeper into central Canada, this front will be losing its forcing. The result will be scattered nuisance showers today for whomever is east of the front (so areas along and east of the I-35 corridor). The other potential area of isolated to scattered showers this afternoon will be in central MN as diurnal showers could pop within the cyclonic flow to the south of the surface low. After today, it's slim pickings for the next couple of weeks to find any rain chances out there.

For Sunday through next week, ensembles remain in good agreement on the development of a rex blocking pattern over central North America. The MPX area will end up just south of the closed h5 high over the southern Canadian Prairies, which puts us in an area of weak flow and little forcing. The only period where we're seeing anything close to a robust signal for rainfall comes Sunday night into Monday. Here, a weak LLJ is forecast to persist across southern MN into western WI. Persistent WAA within this LLJ will likely be enough to generate some scattered showers Sunday night through Memorial Day from the I-90 corridor up toward the I-94 corridor in western WI. After that, a Hudson high settling in over the Great Lakes will block any moisture from getting as far east as MN. As for temperatures, southerly winds will allow for a gradual uptick in temperatures each day Sunday through Tuesday. We'll get into the 80s Sunday, jump up to the mid/upper 80s Memorial Day, then peak in the upper 80s/lower 90s Tuesday. Though there is some concern that the NBM is running a little hot for those highs on Tuesday. Wednesday, as the Hudson high moves into the Great Lakes, we'll see our southerly winds become easterly for the rest of the week. There will be plenty of warm air still in place to see highs back into the mid/upper 80s for Wednesday, but those easterly winds will push highs back down into the 70s for the end of the week. Also falling will be the dewpoints, with this falling back into the 40s for the end of next week. So although some rain would be nice, it's hard to complain about temperatures in the 70s with dewpoints in the 40s under sunny skies.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A weak cold front will slowly work east across the area through the day today. The upper forcing for this front will be getting farther and farther away from the area today, so outside of some brief periods of sprinkles or light rain, so this front is expected to be only a cloud maker for us. The best chance for IFR conditions in the clouds will be at AXN, which will be closest to the surface low. By Saturday afternoon, it should still be cloudy in WI with the lingering boundary and central MN with wrap around clouds, but for places like MSP/MKT/RWF, skies should scatter out. Winds will be light this period, but will move around quite a bit as the front washes out. We'll see winds tend toward the WNW behind the front, but by the end of the period, we will start to see southerly winds return.

KMSP...Given radar/observation trends, pulled any precip mention the rest of tonight to just a VCSH. We may start the day on Saturday with clouds below 018, but we will be back above that level by 17z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.