textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Much colder weather continues through the weekend.

- Dry weather persists through most of next week, along with warmer temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 409 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Much colder air continues to move into the Upper Midwest behind yesterday's cold front, with below-normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. Cyclonic flow aloft behind the front is generating enough lift for isolated snow showers through the morning, with the greatest coverage across western Wisconsin. Elsewhere woudn't be surprised to see a few flurries through the morning. Patches of clouds will stick around in the cold air advection regime with temperatures not expected to warm out of the upper 30s this afternoon. The clouds likely stick around overnight which may keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than the general model consensus. If clouds stick around, expect lows Friday morning in the mid to upper 20s, low to mid 20s if we are able to clear out. Drier high pressure centers over the region Friday & Saturday along with our coldest air of the season. Highs again will only range from the mid 30s to low 40s, with clearer skies allowing for overnight lows to fall well into the 20s, if not a few teens in spots across central Minnesota.

A noticeable warming trend develops next week as upper-level ridging builds over the central CONUS and southerly flow develops on the back side of the departing high pressure. Above-normal temepratures return for Monday & the warming trend increases through the week, with ensemble guidance suggesting temperature anomalies of 15-20 F above normal for Wednesday & Thursday. Most of that abnormal warmth will come from the warm overnight lows, but still expect some highs in the upper 50s, if now 60s, for midweek. Breezy southerly winds will also accompany the warming trend as the pressure gradient tightens over the Upper Midwest, although there doesn't appear to be much of a signal for strong gusts of 35-40+ mph. Dry weather persists through most of the week under the surface high pressure & pronounced upper-level ridging, with the next shot at any appreciable rainfall not arriving until Thursday-Friday at the earliest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Patches of stratus persist through the period with predominately VFR ceilings expected. Brief periods of MVFR can't be ruled out this afternoon when ceilings may briefly dip below 3000 ft. A few flurries are possible with the cloud cover this morning, along with an outside chance at a more robust snow shower at RNH/EAU. Northerly winds around 10 kts persist into this evening with gusts at times up to 20 mph. Winds diminish & remain northerly tonight through tomorrow morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI PM...VFR. Wind N 5 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.