textproduct: Twin Cities
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorms likely Thursday evening ahead of a cold front. A few severe thunderstorms possible.
- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend.
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
Thereafter, surface high pressure will settle in out of Canada under northwesterly flow aloft. This has quiet and pleasant weather conditions written all over it. That's what we can expect heading into the Friday and Saturday timeframe. Afternoon dew points in the middle to upper 50s and high temperatures around 80 degrees will lead to a great start to the weekend. On Sunday, another piece of energy will eject out of the Northern Rockies towards the Midwest. As of now, model guidance shows this system and the associated moisture moving east-southeast across SD, IA, and southern MN. That said, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across southwestern and southern MN Sunday afternoon and evening.
By early next week, global deterministic models and their associated ensemble suites show a stronger and deeper upper level system diving southeast out of Canada and towards the Great Lakes Region. With there still being a degree of uncertainty within run-to-run model guidance, the finer details will need to be ironed out in the coming days. That said, chance of showers and storms return to the forecast during the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
No significant changes from the previous TAF with some mid to high level clouds from convective runoff mainly in western MN this morning, with cloud cover generally expected to be fair weather cumulus by midday and the afternoon. As mixing ends around sunrise, we briefly become SKC before a layer of mid level VFR clouds move in, with SCT/BKN coverage. Winds will shift to 180-210 with speeds under 10kts.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 8-13 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None. WI...None.
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