textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday night. Best chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is this evening, focused across western Minnesota.

- Quiet weather returns for the second half of the week with near-normal temperatures and only low rain chances Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Satellite imagery depicts clear skies across most of southern MN this afternoon with a growing CU field across WI and central MN. An ACCAS field has been present much of the day across west central MN and a few showers have recently developed between Morris and Alexandria. The low levels are quite dry with dew points in the 50s and low 60s, but some increase is expected this evening as richer moisture over the Dakotas slides east. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this evening along a cold front across western MN. Sufficient instability (2000-3000 J/kg) from the increased low level moisture and 45-50 kts of speed shear will bring the potential for splitting supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms should weaken late this evening and overnight as storms progress east. Another round of showers and storms is possible late tonight and early Tuesday, especially south of I-94, as a second short wave passes through. Depending on early day convection, a third round is possible late Tuesday afternoon primarily across southern/eastern MN into WI. This round is of low confidence, but a weak front in the presence of sufficient instability and shear will bring a low risk of severe storms during peak diurnal heating.

West northwest flow aloft will prevail into early next week thanks to the ridge parked over the southern Rockies. Multiple disturbances embedded within the flow will bring periodic low chances for showers and storms but confidence in specifics beyond early Tuesday is low. In the absence of any precipitation, conditions will continue to be pleasant with temperatures near normal. Unfortunately, the prospects of widespread soaking rainfall is very low for at least the rest of the month.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions through the afternoon with scattered showers & thunderstorms developing across the eastern Dakotas & western Wisconsin this evening. This precipitation will move east throughout the night but it is still uncertain just how widespread the rain could become, thus will stick with a PROB30 mention at terminals this evening. MVFR to IFR visibility along with sporadic wind gusts over 20-30 mph are likely with any thunderstorms tonight. ANother round of thunderstorms is likely during the early morning hours, this time mainly across southwestern Minnesota. Precipitation may extend farther north & east into the metro & western Wisconsin after sunrise, but the lighting threat will be lower. Southwesterly winds around 10 kts along with gusts to 20 kts diminish by sunset. Lighter northerly to northwesterly winds take over by tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Main window for any precipitation at the terminal will be during the evening round of storms, generally between 9 PM & midnight. less confidence for the morning round but the bulk of this activity will stay south of the terminal.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5kts. THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SW 5kts. FRI...VFR, chc pm -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.