textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread precipitation continues early this morning with snow across western and central Minnesota, freezing rain across northwest Wisconsin, and light rain to the south.

- Rain lifts north through the morning, resulting in a short lull in precip before light snow spreads from west to east during the afternoon and evening.

- The cool air will persist through Tuesday followed by warmer temperatures and more rain chances for the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Today...It's a dreary start to the day with a smorgasbord of precipitation types across the region, and fog and clouds everywhere in between. Winds have turned out of the north as the surface low tracks east into southern Wisconsin, promoting a broad area of weak cold air advection. As temperatures cool down, snow and freezing rain have become more common. The forecast is still on track for the heaviest snow accumulations to fall across west-central into northern Minnesota, and for the greatest icing to occur across a line from Isanti/Kanabec Counties east into northern Wisconsin. Around 3 to 4 hours of freezing rain or unknown precipitation has been reported by several of the AWOSs in that region already tonight. The total extent of ice accumulation or impacts is unknown to us at this time given most people are asleep right now and camera coverage is limited out there. That said, send in some reports if you have any!

The majority of the rain will lift north throughout the morning, and many locations will stay dry until wrap-around snow showers spread east with the occluded low during the afternoon and evening. Any accumulation from this last push of snow will be light (under an inch), though it could lead to brief reductions in visibility, especially as winds become gusty out of the northwest. Light snow and cloud cover will clear out from west to east by this evening.

Sunday through Tuesday...A couple of weak waves will ride down the broader upper level trough, resulting in a series of cold fronts to start next week. This means the breezy northwesterly winds prevail and temperatures remain cool Sunday night through Tuesday night. There will be low chances (30% or less) for light rain and snow with these cold fronts, primarily the initial one on Sunday. A broad region of surface high pressure settles in behind, allowing clouds to clear and winds to calm Tuesday morning. Lows are forecast to be in the teens and single digits to the north.

Wednesday and Beyond...Long range deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to suggest a turn to a more active pattern for the second half of the week. A deepening upper low could track from southeastern Alaska and along the US/Canada border. The strength of this trough will play a role in the surface low evolution. Right now, it places us safely in the warm sector, meaning rain and thunderstorms would be on the table along with highs in the 60s and dewpoints in the upper 40s. A secondary low may follow behind, but the evolution of the first one will certainly have an impact on how active the rest of the week stays.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Our spring system continues with a wide range of impacts across the terminals. Snow continues at AXN (west MN) while rain continues at EAU (west WI) with all kinds of mix between these terminals across MN and WI. Much of this precipitation has been more showery in nature so there will be breaks in the precipitation. Ceilings have even varied between VFR and IFR at issuance time. Generally have been seeing a decreasing trend in upstream observations, so expecting a more constant IFR as we head into the morning. Should see a return to MVFR by this evening and clearing back into VFR Saturday night. Winds will be shifting to the northwest this morning and could get a little gusty later today with the gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range.

KMSP...Ceilings have been variable between IFR and MVFR over the early overnight, but should trend to more constant IFR as the night continues. Light rain is expected to continue and temperatures should remain just warm enough to prevent it from becoming freezing rain. The rain should come to an end in the morning with a wrap around period of some snow possible in the afternoon. Not yet confident on if snow gets far enough south to impact MSP, so opted to keep the PROB30 for now. Winds expected to shift from the north to more of a northwest direction this morning and hold there through the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR bcmg MVFR Wind NW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-20kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Douglas- Morrison-Todd. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Sherburne-Stearns-Wright. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Pope- Stevens. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Renville-Swift- Yellow Medicine. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Barron-Polk-Rusk.