textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms likely (50-60% chance) across southern Minnesota late tonight into early tomorrow morning, some could be strong with wind as the main threat.

- Additional thunderstorm possible (30% chance) tomorrow night into Wednesday, but more scattered with less severe potential.

- Temperatures turn cooler mid week into the weekend with highs only in the 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

High pressure remains the main story today with light winds present. There is quite a dew point spread across the region with mid 50s in central Minnesota up to 70s down near the Iowa border. Looking towards tonight into tomorrow morning a potent shortwave will track from the Northern Plains into the Midwest. It will be mainly down in this region with the higher dew points across southern Minnesota that will see impacts from the source of forcing. How far north rain will get will depend on the strength of the LLJ we get and how much of a moisture push occurs. The Twin Cities metro is near the northern end of these chances that will be dependent on this additional push from the LLJ to see much chance for rain or thunderstorms. It will be this area south that has the best chance. Overall CI is expected to occur to out west across South Dakota and will likely see upscale growth into an MCS as it moves east into southern Minnesota/Iowa. As is common with this convective mode, wind and heavy rain will be the main concerns as this passes through tonight or tomorrow morning. PW values will be up near 2 inches based on CAM output, so heavy rain will be likely within what storms do occur. It will be residence time of this rain that will determine the flooding threat.

Tuesday will see more of a northwest flow pattern without much strong forcing. Daytime heating will still be robust, as is common in the summer, and will provide a more airmass kind of thunderstorm environment. Shear doesn't look great for us and that will limit severe chances such that SPC has marginal over us for tomorrow. In the SPC day 2 discussion they mentioned the chance for another round of upscale growth into an MCS as one of the reasons for the marginal risk over southern Minnesota.

Cooler air and higher pressure look to be the story for the later part of the work week. This will see highs in the 70s with low PoP chances. Looking toward the weekend there is some signal within ensemble systems for another round of rain. Scattering still remains fairly significant, but it is Saturday, especially early, that shows the best chances. This is also reflected with some likely PoPs in the NBM for this period. This does not look to be a strongly forced event, which introduces some additional areas of uncertainty. With these rain chances the cooler temperatures should extend into Saturday, with some warming for the start of the next week expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Tempered back the BKN mid to high level CIGS we were carrying from the 12z TAF as satellite shows generally lower coverage for the start of the period. The BKN skies look to arrive after 03-04z as the front slides northwards, with a chance for -TSRA/-SHRA for the southern sites, most likely for RWF/MKT with a lower chance for MSP. BKN low VFR cigs are the lowest expected, with a lower level warm nose keeping the bulk of potential activity elevated with only MVFR visibility during active -TSRA/-SHRA. By 12z, the chances diminish and we return to VFR at all sites with CIGS improving to 10kft and bcmg scattered. Winds will weaken overnight prevailing from 070-100 with speeds under 5kts, VRB at times.

KMSP...Kept the prob30 for -RA intact from the 12z, but the chance has lowered with guidance pushing southwards. If this trend continues for the 00z, we may remove the -RA chance entirely.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...chc MVFR/-TSRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NE 5kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.