textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong system Tuesday to bring an intense and narrow band of heavy snow. The rain/snow line looks to setup over the Twin Cities metro, with a strong snowfall gradient expected from southwest to northeast across the metro.

- Strong winds are expected Tuesday evening southwest of the low track, with gusts of 40-50 mph possible south I-94 in Minnesota

- Another round of light snow is possible late Thursday into Friday, primarily for western and southern Minnesota, with only minor accumulations expected.

- Very cold temperatures settle in by this weekend with wind chills approaching advisory criteria Friday night and Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 417 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Latest water vapor imagery highlights a train of shortwaves on track to impact the Upper Midwest over the next several days. The first is currently moving across Minnesota and the International border with Canada that will produce a quick hit of snow this evening. Current observations across western & central Minnesota reveal decreased visibilities tied to the ongoing light snowfall. Lowest visibilities are between 1SM & 2SM that will move eastward through the course of the evening. The heaviest snow will fall north of our forecast area, but 1 to 2" along central MN into NW WI with lighter amounts, half inch to an inch, forecast elsewhere. Temperatures will warm through the evening. Highs today will likely occur just before midnight, in the upper 10s or lower 20s, as WAA ramps up ahead of Tuesday's Winter Storm. Forecast soundings support patchy freezing drizzle overnight as the low-mid levels dry out & lose cloud ice while the near-sfc layer remains saturated. This is typical of a drizzle sounding - but sub freezing temperatures will support a light glaze of ice possible for those impacted.

What we know about Tuesday's Winter Storm: A band of heavy snow is likely along & to the north of Interstate 94 (I-94) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. There is increasing confidence that accumulating snow will reach into the Twin Cities metro, but a sharp gradient is forecast between several inches of snow and little if any. There is also high confidence we'll see a several hour period of freezing drizzle/drizzle south of I-94 for location impacted by the dry slow Tuesday evening. We've opted to upgrade our Winter Storm Watch to a plethora of Winter Weather Advisories along & just south of I-94. Our Winter Storm Warnings will be along & just north of I-94 for locations where they will remain all snow.

What we don't know for Tuesday's Winter Storm: the finer details that ultimately impact the gradient between little snow & several inches. Current forecast splits the Twin Cities metro in half with locations in the north & east metro expecting 3-5" of snow while locations in the southwest metro may only see 1-3". The finer details are always important but much more so when they impact the core population in the Twin Cities. We do not know how much rain will fall across southern Minnesota. This is important because strong northwest winds will pick up Tuesday night and could bust up the crust on the existing snow pack & lead to ground blizzard conditions. We have coordinated with DMX & FSD to issue a Winter Storm Watch for potential of ground blizzard conditions along I-90 and back into western Minnesota Tuesday night into Wednesday.

So what will happen Tuesday? Tuesday will see a potent, quick-moving Alberta Clipper exit the Canadian Rockies into the Northern Plains. The SFC low will track along interstate 94 (I-94) from the Dakotas through central MN into WI by Wednesday morning. Strong WAA will increase ahead of this system and allow temperatures to warm into the 30s across portions of western and southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. The biggest change over the last day is the trend back to the south/colder for most members of guidance. Certain CAMs remain north/warm but those also deepens the SFC low to 980mb, which feels too deep for a clipper-type system in this scenario. Most global solutions now match up with the ECMWF AIFS solution that has been steadfast the past few days. This scenario places more snowfall into the Twin Cities metro than previous forecasts as it tracks a 990mb low along I-94 with the heaviest snow falling just north of the track. This matches up with the conceptual model given the vast snow pack across the region that should support colder surface temperatures despite strong low level warm advection. There is still some uncertainty given how far north & intense certain CAMs are like the HRRR. Everyone in the Twin Cities should expect to see an inch or two of new snow Tuesday but they should not be surprised to see several inches of new snow, especially north and east metro.

Strong winds Tuesday night may lead to potential ground blizzard conditions over W/S MN. There is uncertainty given warm temperatures & potential for FZDZ/DZ Tuesday afternoon - likely crusting over the snowpack. However, strong wind gusts over 45 MPH will likely be enough to break through the crust & loft the remaining snow pack. This is highly uncertain and ground blizzard conditions may not occur if more rain/thicker crust can build up. Overall, a busy day is in store with heavy snow, wintry mix, freezing drizzle, and strong winds on tap.

Once our Tuesday system clears out, we'll be left with some gusty winds and lingering snow showers through Wednesday morning. As the low continues to pull away to the eastern Great Lakes, winds will diminish and strong northwest flow returns aloft. A weak trough looks to swing through sometime Thursday into Friday, leading to another chance of light snow. Have stuck with broad brush 30-50 PoPs and QPF on the order of a few hundredths. This event would likely be similar to ones we had over the past weekend and today with a half inch to maybe an inch of snow total when all is over. The bigger concern in the long term is the Arctic high that will settle in over the Upper Midwest. High temperatures will be in the single digits through Sunday with Saturday currently looking the coldest. Friday could end up being gusty as a surface low over Lake Superior and our incoming Canadian high approaches from the west. These winds will lead to some very cold wind chills during the day (10 to 20 below). We will be flirting with Extreme Cold headlines as apparent temperatures range from 25 to 35 below zero Friday and Saturday night. Another disturbance may skirt to our south over the weekend, but uncertainty is high at this point in time. Temperatures begin to moderate by Monday and we should see highs in 20s (above zero!) through early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1042 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Challenging TAF forecast, with low stratus expected to persist overnight, followed by precipitation Tuesday, and strong winds with a wind shift.

There is a small clearing that could bring VFR conditions to KRWF and KMKT for the next few hours, but the remaining sites should be near IFR conditions the entire TAF period from low stratus. For the rest of the night, could have some fog or light mist at times.

On Tuesday, winds will be southerly ahead of the next system. This system will bring snow to KAXN, KSTC, KRNH, with a wintry mix at KMSP and KEAU. Meanwhile KRWF and KMKT could see a wintry mix changing over to rain, and then back over to snow.

Later in the day, southerly winds will become west/northwest and increase as a cold front moves through. Could see gusts near 40 kts at times.

KMSP... IFR ceilings expected to continue overnight night. Could have some heavy mist or light freezing drizzle at times. That should end by morning, and then expect southerly winds ahead of the next precipitation that will arrive shortly after 18Z. Could have some wintry mix / ice mix in at times, but then it should be more of a rain/snow to all snow transition in the late afternoon. Eventually northwest winds will increase in the evening and overnight hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/IFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Douglas-Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker-Pope- Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Wright. Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Benton-Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Sherburne-Todd. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn- Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville- Sibley-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Ramsey-Rice- Scott-Steele-Washington. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Barron-Chippewa-Polk-Rusk. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.