textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of rain expected through early next week, including a few thunderstorms on Wednesday.

- Temperatures to run above normal through early next week, peaking with highs into the lower 70s on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A healthy dose of isentropic lift and moisture to the north of a low pressure center over the NE/IA border continues to produce an impressive swath of rainfall over most of the WFO MPX coverage area this morning. The low will shift north into southern MN and diminish, but not before rainfall totals in the 0.50"-1.00" range have been realized from this system, owing to PWATs around 1.0" nudging northward in tandem with the surface low. Though the rainfall will end from southwest to northeast across our coverage area through this afternoon, cloud cover will remain as there is no dry air to aid in scouring out the low-mid levels. On the contrary, moisture and temperatures will continue to slowly increase from today through Wednesday as the washed-out surface low aids in frontogenesis across southern MN this evening which will then rapidly shift north tonight into Wednesday. This warm air advection is slightly evident this morning as temperatures overnight near the IA border have punched into the lower 50s while temperatures over the vast majority of the coverage area range from the upper 30s in central MN through the 40s in southern MN and western WI. The warming trend will continue today as highs are expected to range from the upper 40s in west-central MN to the lower 60s near and east of the US-169 corridor.

This late October warm-up will continue in earnest on Wednesday, which is looking to be the warmest day in this forecast period. Highs will surge to the 60s area-wide, with some lower 70s likely to be realized in southern MN into western WI. This warmth will only last the one day as the cold front of this synoptic system will push through the region Wednesday afternoon-evening. Pushing this front along will be a mid-level trough over the north-central states, helping enhance mid-to- upper level SW flow across the region. As previously mentioned, along with the WAA will be elevated moisture advection to the tune of dewpoints into the 50s to near 60, which could aid in producing MLCAPEs of around 1000 j/kg Wednesday afternoon. With the frontal passage in favorable afternoon-evening timing in tandem with peak heating/moisture, there is a possibility of isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in addition to fairly good rainfall coverage. COnfidence isn't overly impressive to have strong storms, but the possibility is there for some thunderstorms to be organized and produce small hail and/or gusty winds.

This cold front will push well into the Great Lakes by daybreak Thursday with cooler high pressure filling in behind it. However, with its origin of a more Pacific nature than Canadian, the airmass will only cool off slightly behind it with highs dropping to the mid 50s to mid 60s from Thursday through early next week, which are values still above normal through the end of October into early November. Another round of rain looks likely Friday into Saturday as isentropic lift is again heightened over southern portions of the coverage area in advance of a warm front gaining impetus over the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. A similar situation to this coming Wednesday then looks to potentially develop for early next week, with the warm front snapping northward rapidly with an approaching cold front from the west on Monday. We need to see if this situation develops because additional thunderstorms would be possible given the similar synoptic scenario.

One item to start thinking about is when we could start seeing freezing temperatures return to our region. Long-range ensembles still portray the thinking advertised in the previous discussion, that we may not see solid freezing temperatures until at least the middle of November.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A continued mix of IFR/MVFR with some VFR sprinkled in this morning as the last of the rain showers push northeast out of the area within the first few hours of the TAF. Generally we expect to see OVC skies for most of the period with CIGS generally MVFR, with VFR most likely for EAU/RNH. While we will be above 6sm most of the time, there will be periods of very light -RA/-DZ due to the lower cloud bases and remnant forcing leftover from the rain. Winds will shift from around 120-150 at 10-15kts at the beginning of the period, shifting towards 180-200 by 18-20z then returning to near 150 by the very end of the period.

KMSP...A brief period of LLWS is possible at the beginning of the period with winds aloft from 210-240 at around 35-40kts compared to surface winds at 150/10kts. Current CIGS are VFR with guidance suggesting we drop down to MVFR throughout the day, so elected to stick with the persistence forecast.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts. SAT...MVFR/-RA likely. Wind SE 8-12kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.