textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and dry weather continues through the start of the weekend.

- Light snow and minor accumulations return to the forecast late Saturday into Sunday.

- Temperatures warm to near/above normal values through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Cold and tranquil weather continues across the Upper Midwest early this afternoon. Much of the forecast area is observing abundant sunshine thanks to the influence of a ~1030mb surface high building southeast from the Dakotas. Satellite shows that this is not necessary the case everywhere across the region, as two defined bands of stratus are located to our southwest (from central SD to western IA) and to our north (across northern MN and northern WI). The band of stratus to the southwest is associated with a moisture plume tied to a shortwave that is currently traversing the western Great Plains and will remain suppressed away from our forecast area. On the other hand, stratus across northern MN is tied to a vort lobe that is pinwheeling around a dominant upper level circulation over Hudson Bay. The southward advance of the incoming vort lobe towards Lake Superior should support a southward shift in the stratus later this evening into the night. However, with dominant high pressure and subsidence present, confidence is low in the maintenance of a widespread stratus deck across south central MN/western WI. With the expectation of a more optimistic sky cover forecast reflected in the grids, all systems are a go for another sub-zero night with lows ranging between -5 to -15.

The larger circulation over Hudson Bay is forecast to breakdown and evolve into an elongated inverted trough that swings south across the Upper Midwest Thursday into Friday. In these scenario's, it's usually wise to consider adding in some mention of flurries given the presence of the vort max aloft within the very cold air mass. Due to the very dry antecedent air mass in place and the core of the upper forcing set to the east of our forecast area, it's not necessarily a surprise to see forecast soundings struggling to capture/advertise any flurry potential. We've opted to refrain from adding flurries into the grids at this time, but will reevaluate in forthcoming forecast cycles. Otherwise, the cold continues to be the most prevalent form of sensible weather, with sub-zero lows and highs in the single digits through Saturday morning. The coldest period appears to be Friday morning, when wind chills fall to -15 to -20 across southern MN/western WI and -25 or so across central MN. While very cold, these values will run slightly above our criteria for cold weather headlines.

Changes arrive this weekend, as the upper trough digs over the Ohio Valley and phases with a southern stream wave to produce the Nor'easter that is gaining interest across media outlets. Locally, the departure of the troughing to the east will allow for western ridging and associated height rises to expand across the Upper Midwest. Forecast high temperatures climb back into the teens on Saturday, followed by further warming into the mid 20s Sunday through Wednesday. Perhaps this is still a bit too cold to call this a "thaw" though I do think highs in the mid 20s will feel much better than the bitter cold of late! The eastward expansion of the large scale ridge will shift a more active clipper track into our region this weekend...the first of which is set to produce light snow late Saturday into Sunday. NBM's PoPs of 40-50% are reasonable given some timing and coverage differences (dry air) across the guidance envelope. Ensemble means support QPF amounts up to a tenth of an inch, with several members falling short of that mark. Should be a classic higher PoP/low QPF clipper event that will require noted increases in PoPs over the coming days. Most locations can expect snow accumulations between a half inch to inch, but won't rule out isolated spots observing an inch or two. Essentially, we anticipate enough powder to yield some slick travel conditions during the second half of the weekend. Another clipper is set to bring additional light snow chances in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 506 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Another quiet TAF period with mainly FEW/SCT250 moving through over the start, with some SCT030 possible mainly for RNH/EAU from what is currently over portions of northeastern MN. Winds remain 320 at or below 10kts to begin, shifting towards 360-020 with speeds under 7kts by the end of the period. Another round of FEW/SCT MVFR level clouds are possible late in the period, but confidence in an actual CIG and MVFR are low at this time.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind W bcmg SW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR -SN. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.