textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another messy early spring system today into tomorrow with rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain expected across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

- Elevated thunderstorms will be possible across southern Minnesota with some isolated hail storms possible.

- The cold air sticks around into early next week with our next warm up arriving in the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Today... With Thursday's system moving across northern Minnesota this morning we are in the calm between the two events. This break will not last long as our next system moves in later today. Early this morning radar reflectivity shows the system over South Dakota. This will move into western Minnesota later this morning and spread into central Minnesota by the early afternoon. Then across the rest of the region this afternoon. This is large and dynamic system with all precipitation types expected and a chance for severe weather across southern Minnesota. This is driven by the warm air wrapped up into this system along the warm conveyor belt which could well create a TROWAL (providing for a possible boom scenario from Fgen based snowfall). This warm air wrapped up is also the key feature for our elevated CAPE for the thunderstorm chances in southern Minnesota and the freezing rain chances to the north. As with the last system, that came through yesterday, there will be a variety of impacts with significant differences over a short distance. Also like yesterday's system the newest high resolution guidance and the AIFS has come a little farther south. This now gives more of a chance for ice across a wider area of Wisconsin and Minnesota so Winter Weather Advisories were expanded. This same shift also took some of the heavier snowfall farther south, so an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning was taken in parts of central Minnesota. For the warning area this is mainly for the northern portions of those counties and there will likely be a snowfall gradient across these counties with 6 or 7 inches and in the north and 3 to 4 inches in the south. With the expected low track the Twin Cities looks like it will luck out again with mainly a rain precipitation type and the best instability remaining to the south. Even to the south the instability is all quite elevated and skinny. So if a strong to severe storm can form the main severe risk would be for hail with little to no chance for significant hail.

Tonight into Tomorrow... The surface low will continue to make its way across the Midwest tonight into tomorrow continuing the mixed precipitation through the overnight and into Saturday. By Saturday though the main area of precipitation will be across northern and central Minnesota and should be solidly snow. It will be the overnight period when the low's location will still allow for enough warm air advecting north for rain and freezing rain across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Current forecast soundings from high resolution guidance put northwest Wisconsin in the greatest risk area for ice accumulation from freezing rain tonight. The line of rain vs freezing rain will likely have a tight cutoff. This freezing line location is the current area of the greatest uncertainty. This is the main area we will continue to monitor over the day for possible headline updates. Upgrades to warning could be needed if another shift to the south in the surface freezing line occurs.

Sunday through Thursday.. Sunday will be cool and Monday cold as the CAA will be present behind this system. Temperatures bottom out Monday with highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal. This cool down won't last long, as the CAA ends on Tuesday and WAA returns on Wednesday. There is quite a bit of spread in the NBM on Thursday as ensemble systems have differing solutions of a cold front moving through. There is also significant spread on the precipitation front as well here between the ensemble systems. So still too soon to say how active the mid to later part of next week will be, but that is our next chance for active weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Things are quiet to start this morning, though regional radar shows a developing precipitation shield across south Dakota. As the day progresses, rain and snow will spread east into Minnesota. Similar to our previous storm, there will be a snow to mix to rain gradient from the northwest to southeast. AXN has the highest confidence for a period of accumulating snow, and RWF/STC are right on the edge of that snow vs rain gradient. Sites near MSP/MKT/RNH/EAU will be mostly rain, with potential for light freezing precipitation to mix in at times. There remains a chance for a few rumbles of thunder this evening, mainly across southeast Minnesota in west-central Wisconsin.

Winds will generally be out of the NE/E today at around 10 kts, and eventually shift more northerly by tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Light rain is expected to develop around 17-19z today, though confidence is low on how widespread showers will be initially. Heavier rain rates will become more widespread around 23-01z, lasting through the evening. There may be a lull in the rain tomorrow morning before transitioning to light snow showers later in the day Saturday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/IFR cigs. -RASN in morning. Wind NW 10-20G30 kts. SUN...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT Saturday for Douglas-Morrison-Todd. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT Saturday for Benton-Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-McLeod-Meeker- Mille Lacs-Sherburne-Stearns-Wright. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Pope- Stevens. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Renville-Swift-Yellow Medicine. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT Saturday for Barron-Polk-Rusk.