textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Narrow band of accumulating snow with 2 to 4" possible across west central Minnesota down towards Twin Cities metro.

- Blizzard conditions expected to continue for portions of southwest Minnesota where falling snow overlaps with frequent gusts over 40 mph.

- Turning colder late week with another chance for accumulating snow Thursday night/Friday - mainly across southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Regional satellite and radar is mesmerizing as the surface low spins over central Minnesota early this afternoon. Steady, falling snow has developed in support from the strong forcing associated with the deformation band stretching from central NoDak into south-central MN. Observational and model guidance suggests a slight northern shift of this band throughout the day. The combination of strong winds, gusting over 40 mph at times, and falling snow will continue to result in reduced visibilities, especially for areas of southwest MN near the Minnesota river where winds are most frequently gusting in excess of 40 mph. Widespread visibilities of a quarter mile or less are resulting in whiteout conditions and very difficult travel for portions of southwest Minnesota. Under this band, we expect totals to be mostly around 2 to 4 inches. We are weary of the higher end totals given that surface temperatures were warm and some melting is already occurring, especially on roadways. As of the 12pm observation, we measured 0.4" of snowfall with 0.05" of liquid. Though, again it is worth mentioning, very little accumulation occurred off of our snow board which is cooler than the rest of the ground.

Light snow will taper off by Thursday morning, along with winds weakening out of the N/NW. Expect it to remain cloudy and dreary throughout the day as a secondary shortwave ejects out of the main longwave trough over the Intermountain West. Now that we have seen the southern solution is panning out for today's system, confidence has increased in this secondary wave digging a bit further south. The associated surface low track now solidly moves through southern Iowa up towards southern Wisconsin, keeping the majority of the snow across northern Iowa into west- central Wisconsin. You can see this in the ensemble mean for the Euro, American, and Canadian models, as well as deterministic Euro AIFS, GFS, NAM, RRFS. Only a handful of solutions clip portions of southern MN and western WI (Eau Claire County), with the deterministic Euro and HRRR. We are favoring this southern trend, with a low potential for light accumulations (around an inch or less) for S/SE MN and portions of western WI.

The main story heading into the weekend will be the downward trend of temperatures into the 20s and teens (close to normal for mid-late February). There is no major signal for precipitation as a broad area of high pressure spreads across the region. The next chance for a warm and a round of precipitation will come during the middle of next week as lower heights build in across Canada.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A large system is bringing IFR/LIFR conditions for KRWF and KMKT this afternoon with heavy snow and strong west wind. Elsewhere expect periods of snow this afternoon and breezy west wind. The snow will end from west to east this evening and overnight as the storm system exits the region and weakens overall. IFR/MVFR clouds will linger into Thursday along with northwest wind.

KMSP...Could see two rounds of heavier snow at KMSP. The first will be early this afternoon, and then expect another thin band of snow to move east and could bring some IFR conditions as well. Winds will be west/southwest, with the strongest gusts this afternoon. Winds will decrease this evening, and the snow should exit around 06Z or shortly after. Look for MVFR cloud to continue through Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR/MVFR with Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-20 kts. SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-20 kts. SUN...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW 15-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Carver- Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Pope-Ramsey-Rice-Scott- Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for Brown-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Blue Earth- Brown-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Yellow Medicine. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for Blue Earth- Faribault-Freeborn-Steele-Waseca. WI...None.