textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Frosts or freezes are expected tonight, Thursday night, and Friday night.

- A few showers are possible this afternoon across southern MN and across western WI Thursday afternoon. Additional low chances arrive this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

CU is maturing across southern MN and eastern SD early this afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms have also developed across SD. So far the CU remains shallow farther east, but forecast soundings continue to show some meager CAPE developing during the next couple hours. It may be enough to get a few showers developing with perhaps a lightning strike, but most areas will remain dry. Diurnal CU will dissipate after sunset and a cold night expected with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Winds will remain a bit elevated across southern MN, which should keep the frost risk in check there. However, the remainder of the area will likely experience areas of frost. Temperatures from west central MN to northwest WI are likely to drop below freezing for a few hours late tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for those areas with a Frost Advisory to the south. Left southern MN out for now due to the lower risk. Vegetation has not yet become susceptible north of the Freeze Warning, so no headlines there for this round.

A similar scenario will unfold Thursday. A shortwave trough will swing southeast and modest surface-based instability will develop across western WI. A few showers may develop during the afternoon but they should remain brief and inconsequential. Friday will be dry with just scattered to broken shallow CU development. Clearing will take place again Thursday and Friday evenings with temperatures dropping back to near freezing. Additional frost and freeze headlines are likely for each of those nights.

Milder temperatures return for the weekend as the trough eases. Northwest flow will still continue so the warming trend will not be particularly impressive. Weak shortwaves may provide low chances for showers. There are signs by the middle of next week a stronger push of cold air may return with a large upper low parked over eastern Canada.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR with scattered to broken mid-level cigs continuing to move across all TAF sites this afternoon. Breezy NW'ly wind gusts around 20kts will ease up around sunset and becoming light overnight. There is a non-zero chance for a few isolated sprinkles this afternoon but chances were too low to include in any TAFs. Should sprinkles manage to fall, would likely be nearest to MKT and RWF.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NNW 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Chc -SHRA late. Wind W 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Chippewa- Chisago-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker- Renville-Sherburne-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Anoka-Brown- Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-Nicollet-Ramsey- Redwood-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Washington. WI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Barron- Chippewa-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce.