textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain, mainly along and north of I-94, tonight into tomorrow.

- After a warm start to the week, colder for the later half of the week before a warm up again next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Clouds have been increasing and will continue to increase this afternoon into tonight as our next system approaches. We did end up breaking the 60 degree mark again today across much of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Looking ahead we don't look likely to break 60 again until maybe a week from now when the NBM 75th percentile has highs in the 60s. Overall this next system looks to follow a clipper path and typical impacts. This will be rain showers generally along and north of I-94 tonight into tomorrow morning based on where the forcing is expected to setup for this clipper track. Behind this we will see a cold frontal passage. This will bring temperatures down from the much above normal start to the week. Also across western Wisconsin we will see some additional precipitation chances later in the day tomorrow along this front, as this area will see better low level saturation. There could even, in areas like Rusk County, be some snow flakes mixing in at times. With ground and air temperatures near to only slightly below freezing nothing is expected to stick or accumulate. Highs will vary tomorrow from the 40s across central Minnesota to the lower 50s farther south based on the timing of peak diurnal heating vs frontal passage. As the front will be moving from north to south across the region.

The airmass behind this frontal passage will bring highs down into the mid 30s to lower 40s and lows into the 20s for Thursday and Friday. This also comes in with persistent high pressure which will keep precipitation chance low to non- existent. The post frontal CAA will start to fall off on Saturday allowing for some warm up this weekend. Highs in the 40s appear most likely. We turn to some warmer air advecting in to start the next week which should bring back highs in the 50s. With the ridge persisting, precipitation chances remain low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions for all sites with passing high clouds at initialization, but as a cold front drops southeast from south- central Canada, mid-level ceilings will filter into the region along with a few sprinkles/showers for near and north of I-94 during the early morning hours. The question is whether enough lift can be produced within meager moisture to squeeze out showers that will make it through a dry layer of around 7kft depth. If any showers do occur, no reduction in flight category from VFR is expected. Mid-level clouds will then scatter out for much of the day, though lower to around the 3kft level. Not expecting MVFR ceilings, but there may be another layer over the SCT030 decks. BKN mid-level ceilings may then try to return by late day, but remain VFR. After light/variable winds overnight, winds turn N to NW post-front and become breezy/gusty from late morning through most of the day, with speeds reaching near 15G25kts.

KMSP...With the main swath of precipitation remaining to the north of MSP plus a forecasted dry layer of near 7kft at the time the area of precipitation slides ESE mainly north of I-94, have opted to remove mention of showers for MSP. Cannot entirely rule out a few sprinkles/showers but anything that would reach MSP would not cause any reduction in flight category from VFR. BKN ceilings will linger into the late morning before scattering out for the remainder of the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind N 5kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.