textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow and Friday before warming through the weekend.

- Rain showers are expected late tonight into tomorrow afternoon.

- A more active weather pattern arrives for the start of April.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 538 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Temperatures have climbed into the low 60s area wide early this afternoon with only some scattered high clouds passing through. With a few more hours of late March sun still to come, expecting highs to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s. A weak cold front will sag southward this evening into Thursday morning, leading to some showers through early afternoon. Have continued the trend mentioned in previous discussions of raising PoPs/QPF and bringing them further south as more hi-res guidance has fallen in line with the AIFS placement of the band of precip. Still anticipating this to be a rain event, but as temperatures fall in our far northern counties, a few snowflakes could mix in during the afternoon. Friday will be the coldest day of the week with temepratures struggling to make it out of the 30s as Canadian high pressure slides in from the northwest. Have introduced PoPs (15-25%) across far east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin with the passage of another weak wave. Given the cold temperatures, this would fall as snow, but no accumulation is expected.

Temperatures rebound quickly over the weekend in response to the ridge over the western CONUS shifting eastward. Highs will be some 10 to 15 degrees warmer from Friday into Saturday and again Saturday into Sunday. That being said, there may be some elevated fire weather concerns during the afternoons, particularly Saturday. RH values fall below 30% on Saturday, with southwestern Minnesota likely to see the driest conditions along with breezy southwest winds. This threat will need to be monitored in future forecasts. Otherwise, zonal flow remains in place to start the week with continued highs in the 50s and 60s. The first few days of April still look to bring several chances for showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 102 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Not much change since the previous TAF except minor modifications to wind direction and wind gust speeds tomorrow. Forecast remains on track that AXN, STC, RNH, EAU have the strongest chances at observing a few hours of light -RA early this morning. Rain should be clear of all sites no later than 14z for MN sites, and then 16z for WI sites. MVFR cigs can be expected as rainfall approaches but significant impacts to visibility are not anticipated. Forecast guidance does try and aggressively clear all sites out post-fropa. However, considering we will be under cold cyclonic flow, felt the RAP has a better handle on a potential lag on clearing MVFR cig heights. Therefore, lowered cigs to low-VFR at the end of the period to better capture this time lag in clearing. Light and variable winds will shift northerly as the cold front passes overhead this morning. Wind gusts are expected to increase between 18 to 25 kts for much of the daylight hours.

KMSP...Continued with the previous TAF for the timing of potential SHRA which would appear most likely between 08-13z. Guidance is still split on whether or not we actually see strong enough -SHRA to reduce visibility below 6sm. Chances for prevailing -SHRA look to remain north of the field. MVFR cigs will reach the MSP around 16z this morning and will be potentially slow to improve post-fropa according to latest RAP guidance (after 01z). The parallels by early this afternoon can expect to see a breezy NNE'ly crosswind with gusts between 20 to 25kts before weakening this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10G20 kts

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.