textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow tonight into Sunday. Accumulations of 1 to 2.5 inches are expected. Some brief periods of freezing drizzle may occur.

- Temperatures warm to near/above normal values this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A strong 1047 mb high centered over the central Plains and extending north to the Upper Midwest will weaken and center itself over the Mid South later today. Northeast flow on the eastern periphery of the high has allowed a band of low clouds to advance southward into western WI overnight. Clear skies are present across the remainder of the area. The clouds will erode as the low level flow becomes more westerly.

Light snow has developed across eastern MT and western SD overnight. A clipper system will continue east southeast along the U.S./Canadian border today, weakening slowly as it does so. Initially there will be considerable dry air below 10kft thanks to the influence of the high to the south, but low level moisture should increase quickly as the clipper approaches. The band of light snow will accompany a warm front tonight and Sunday. Modest isentropic lift and weak Omega will keep rates light, but several hours of light snow are expected. There may be multiple waves, however, that result in occasional breaks in the snowfall. In addition, there remains some potential for loss of ice in the DGZ which may lead to short transitions to light freezing drizzle. The NAM and GFS have backed away from that a bit, but the RAP still indicates this possibility. There is a high probability of at least a tenth of an inch of QPF, but hi-res and global models continue to trend heavier. Some solutions have increased to as high as 1/4 inch, which seems a bit of a stretch considering pwats of 0.4 inches at best. AI QPF output remains in the range of 0.1 to 0.15", which aside from a few heavier pockets in eastern MN where light snow persists the longest, seems reasonable. This will result in 1-2.5 inches of snow area wide by the time it tapers off Sunday afternoon.

A brief shot of cooler air is expected Monday behind the clipper. Then, a gradual moderation will occur as a Pacific airmass builds east across the Plains. A strong clipper system tracking southeast toward the Great Lakes Thursday should bring the warmest air of next week. Highs in the 30s are expected, with low 40s not being ruled out. Most precipitation with this one should be confined to along and north of the track, but any that falls locally may be rain or snow depending on thermal profiles.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

IFR/MVFR cigs across western WI continue inching westward. The cloud deck may reach as far west as RNH before scattering out. EAU should remain MVFR through much of the day. High clouds will increase late this morning, then lower gradually through the evening. light snow will develop across western MN late evening, spreading east overnight.

KMSP...No concerns today or this evening. Light snow should begin around 08Z tonight, becoming steadier after 10Z. The snow will continue into Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/-SN, then VFR late. Wind S to NW 10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB to NE 5 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.