textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperature roller coaster ahead with temperatures warming through Tuesday, falling Wednesday, warming through Friday, and falling again next weekend.

- Overall dry week ahead, outside of midweek chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Rest of today into tomorrow... Northerly flow peaks, with tonight being the coldest part of the week ahead. Tomorrow, this flow will start to shift allowing some warming. Not much warming, but snow free areas in the south could make a run at 30 degrees. Much of the lower atmosphere today continues to be in the DGZ such that any low clouds could and have led to period of flurries. With there being little depth to this moisture profile and the lack of any significant forcing, no accumulation is expected. Tomorrow temperatures look to warm enough such that any low level saturation will likely be out of the DGZ and flurries are less likely.

Tuesday... A clipper will move out of Canada and into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. The global deterministic models and ensemble means keep the low to our north with the heaviest snow more across northern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. This has been a common clipper track, especially this year, and like the other times it has occurred snow is expected along and north of I-94. QPF amounts are the main limiting factor as this moves though quickly and the best forcing stays to the north. So under a half inch expected with up to around an inch in and around Rusk County, WI as they are closer to the low track. With this low staying to our north we look to get a brief push of WAA on Tuesday. This will bring temperatures up into the 30s with some 40s possible in snow free areas of southern and western Minnesota.

Wednesday and Thursday... The brief push of WAA ends quickly as Tuesday's clipper moves out and brings back northerly winds behind it. This will bring below normal temperatures back on Wednesday. The roller coaster of temperatures continues Thursday as temperature warm back above normal with westerly flow. The temperatures shift is the more confident part of this forecast as ensemble guidance keeps us consistently on the cold north side of the next system. What is less certain is how far south this tracks. This continues to appear the stronger of the two systems, it is just less certain if the QPF will be over us or stay mostly to the south. Regardless of the ensemble tracks the best chances are across southern Minnesota and precipitation type is certainly snow. Previous discussions have brought up the AIFS, which continues to favor the more southerly track with only southwest Minnesota seeing much of anything due to the low track. Some members of the broader ENS and GEFS due keep this track farther north. One of the more high end forecasts is the deterministic GFS which has the Iowa/Minnesota border as the central axis of precipitation. So this is all a long way to say there remains a lot of spread between southern Minnesota getting winter storm level snow level snow to a light less than an inch event.

Rest of the week... Temperatures look to peak on Friday with widespread 40s and maybe a few 50s over snow free areas as the warmer westerly flow continues. This all comes to an end Friday night into the weekend as northerly flow returns and below normal temperatures are forecast for next weekend. This temperature roller coaster is typical of the late winter as we start to make the transition into spring. So expect more alternating periods of cold and warm as we head into March.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Low VFR stratus has cleared all but EAU to open the 06z period. We'll prevail with a low VFR cig at EAU, but it's possible a brief period of high MVFR cigs moves over the terminal early in the period. Anticipate clouds scatter out by ~9z or so. Otherwise, clear skies with diminishing NW winds through the overnight. Light and variable winds will turn southerly and sustain between 5-10kts Monday afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 10G20 kts bcmg WNW 15G25kts. WED...VFR, with Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind NW 5-15kts. THU...MVFR/-SN early, then VFR. Wind E 10 kts bcmg NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.