textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain showers to diminish by late morning, then dry through Tuesday night.

- Widespread rainfall expected late Wednesday through late Thursday, with additional chances of rain through the weekend.

- Temperatures to remain above normal into mid-June, including highs near 90 early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a nearly north-south oriented occlusion over the eastern Dakotas to a surface low over the eastern SD/NE border. High pressure sits centered to the west of this occluded front over the lee of the Rockies along with a stronger surface high over Hudson Bay. Aloft, an upper level low sits over central MT while an upper ridge is aligned with the Hudson Bay surface high. A weak baroclinic zone sits over MN between the MT upper low and another upper low over far eastern Canada. In this weak pressure pattern between these systems, light rain showers persist, scattered over central-southern MN into western WI.

CAMs generally show a weakening trend of the precipitation through sunrise, though there is the small shot of a few showers/t-storms continuing into late morning. However, as the occluded front slowly shifts east into this weak zone aloft, the front will wash out while the western upper low shifts even farther west, thus making for a pathway for the Hudson Bay high to drop southward today into tonight. The high pressure features will then become the prevailing synoptic weather feature over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes late tonight through Tuesday night. The highest PoPs during this period will be through 12z this morning, with dry conditions expected from late this morning through late Wednesday morning.

Come midday Wednesday, the large ridge over the Great Lakes will drop south and east, allowing the aforementioned upper low over the northern Rockies to drift eastward just to the north of the international border. Zonal to SW flow aloft will drag moisture from the Deep South well into the Upper Midwest while and elongated west-to-east frontal boundary associated with the upper low, and multiple surface lows along it, will have little movement from Wednesday through Thursday. Convergence along this front with the elevated PWATs due to the advected moisture will make for widespread rainfall from late Wednesday through late Thursday across the entirety of the WFO MPX coverage area. Have maintained Likely PoPs as models have been consistent in this thinking, including the production of 0.25-0.75" QPF, highest over western MN.

The upper ridge will still slide eastward to the SE CONUS and collapse, helping bring the stalled frontal boundary southward and away from the Upper Midwest going into Friday. There will still be some residual instability and passing weak shortwaves aloft which may spark some isolated showers/thunderstorms for Friday-Saturday. Otherwise, the main forecast topic for the weekend into early next week will be an uptick in temperatures. Temperatures are already expected to remain above normal for the first week of June but nothing excessively so, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s from today through Saturday. However, ridging building over the SW CONUS through the week will gain impetus to spread northeast into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will nudge temperatures upwards even further, which had been highlighted on multiple CPC outlooks the past few days. NBM consensus temperatures have also latched onto this idea, producing high temperatures into the mid- upper 80s and even near 90 from Sunday onward. That said, dewpoints are only expected to run in the upper 50s to mid 60s, thus keeping excessive heat at bay as heat index values are forecast to only run within a degree or two of the actual temperatures. Low PoPs remain in the forecast, owing to isolated convection possible each day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

While nearly all of the overnight rain showers over central MN into western WI have dissipated, a smaller line of showers/t-storms which formed during the early morning hours in western MN continues to slide east but also be in a dissipating state. Aside from possibly reaching AXN-RWF, TAF sites are expected to remain dry. Patches of IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities will persist into the later morning hours but as daytime mixing commences, the low level moisture will be scoured out and conditions will improve to VFR with mid-level SCT to BKN cloud cover. Winds will remain from the E to SE under 10kts.

KMSP...A few showers are possible in the first 1-2hrs of the 01/06z TAF set, otherwise dry conditions are expected throughout. With FEW007 around, it is not out of the question to have a brief period of IFR ceilings develop given that similar scenarios have occurred at other sites upstream in southern MN. Have kept conditions as VFR but will monitor if such conditions develop for MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25 kts. THU...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.