textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- After today, temperatures will be within 10 degrees of either side of normal the next 7 days.

- Breezy conditions through the first half of next week, with the windiest period being Monday night into Tuesday morning, when wind gusts over 40 mph will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

At 2pm, a cold front was just crossing the I-35 corridor. A warm nose at h7 and dry air above that has really limited precip development along it this far north. We have seen some storms develop from northeast KS toward southeast MN, with the CAMS showing this activity zippering its way up the boundary late this afternoon, which may allow a brief shower into Eau Claire, though the best rain chances look to come east of the MPX area. Behind the front, there will be modest cold advection, but it's just strong enough to bring our temperatures back down near normal, but not much more than that. For Saturday, we'll see mainly cloudy skies by the afternoon as the trough currently moving into northern Montana swings through. This wave will be strengthening as it goes across MN and we're seeing an increased signal for some light rain ahead of it along and south of the I-94 corridor, so did increase PoPs above what the NBM quite a bit to get some better precip mentions in the forecast for Saturday afternoon. It won't be a washout, or very heavy, but most areas along and south of the I-94 corridor should see a brief period of light rain, with amounts under a tenth of an inch.

For Sunday through Monday, we'll see a trough come out of the Canadian Rockies that will deepen into a closed low over MN on Tuesday. We'll be in line for this systems dry slot, so we won't see much precip with it in the MPX area, but we will see plenty of wind. We'll really start to see southerly winds pick up Sunday night, but it's behind the cold front Monday afternoon through Monday night that looks to bring our strongest winds. Monday afternoon should see gusts in western MN up near 35 kts with deep mixing bringing down some stronger winds, but it's Monday night that has the potential for the strongest winds. This is when we see an isallobaric high move in, along with strong CAA as winds switch from the west to northwest. GFS BUFKIT soundings show potential gusts over 40 kts in western MN, so we'll have to watch this period for the potential for wind headlines. By Tuesday afternoon, we'll see high pressure moving in from the Dakotas, with the winds and gusts starting to pull back.

For the rest of the week, we'll have lighter winds and cooler temperatures on Wednesday as high pressure moves through, but for Thursday and Friday, winds turn southerly and we'll start to see highs in the 60s growing in coverage each day. It looks dry to end the week and if you're looking for the potential for a stronger system, you need to look on the 10-12 day window. This is when a deep trough will be coming out of the Rockies, with the potential increasing for a more meaningful weather system for the local area around the 27th/28th of October.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions with another frontal passage to focus on this period. Winds will increase and shift northwesterly behind the front. Hi-res models continue to show a period of -SHRA as the upper level trough moves overhead a few hours after the surface front. Impacts look to be on the lower with the showers being light and relatively progressive. Highest confidence for 2-3 hours of -SHRA is at KRWF, KMKT, and KEAU where more moisture will be available to tap into.

KMSP...Kept the Prob30 for -SHRA in, but removed visibility reductions and adjusted the timing slightly. With the rain moving quickly and uncertainty with the areal extent of showers, it is not expected that it will rain during the whole 3 hour period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G20kts. MON...VFR. Wind S-NW 10-15G25kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.