textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog and freezing fog are possible across the eastern half of Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin tonight.

- Temperatures warm above freezing tomorrow with low 40s possible across southwestern Minnesota.

- Snowfall chances for late this week remain possible across southeastern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin. Though, additional wobbles in the track are still possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Current radar does show one area of returns over Barron, Dunn, and Chippewa counties early this afternoon. Most stations in this area are reporting light rain as surface temperatures are just above freezing. But, RCX is reporting "Unknown Precip" with it's temperature at 32. A small amount of additional ice is possible for our northern WI counties into this afternoon so have opted to continue the Winter Weather Advisory here until 3 PM. A majority of the precip has moved to the east, though, and observed liquid amounts since last night are impressive for early January. Much of the Twin Cities into western WI has received 0.3-0.7" of liquid, which is already a good portion of our normal precip for the month of January. Now just imagine if it were all snow...

A weak disturbance could bring some light SN/FZDZ to west-central MN late this afternoon but the bigger concern for the next 48 hours will be cloud cover and visibility. The warm air mass will remain in place, helping melt whatever snow cover is left and favor cloudier skies. The increased moisture is evident in forecast soundings so have gone heavier with cloud cover through Wednesday evening. Where it remains cloudy, highs will struggle to exceed the mid 30s. But areas that do see sun (particularly southwestern MN) could see highs jump well into the 40s Wednesday. As for visibility, areas of patchy fog across the eastern half of MN and WI this afternoon should become more widespread and dense as we go through tonight. Another Dense Fog Advisory for tonight may be necessary in future updates. As lows drop into the 20s tonight, fog will likely turn into freezing fog and could make for slick travel conditions.

Mild temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 30s) will persist into Thursday before the first of two wintry storm systems impacts the Midwest Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Forecast models currently favor the surface low tracking from EAX to MKE, which should keep most of the precipitation to our southeast. However, models do pass QPF from the northwest quadrant of the low over southeastern MN and western WI. If precipitation occurs, it will likely start as rain Thursday evening before colder air is advected from the north changing precip over to a wintry mix and then eventually snow during Thursday night. Though, quite a bit low to mid-level dry air has been noted in forecast soundings across MN. Not expecting significant amounts of precipitation from this system but perhaps an inch of snow is possible for our southern and eastern counties by Friday morning.

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Friday (upper 20s to lower 30s) before more cold air arrives Friday night. Developing northerly flow on the backside of the second storm system will advect colder air into the Northern Plains from central Canada. The second storm system's track looks similar to the first's, likely even a little farther southeast into the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. But, this second system looks quite a bit stronger such that forecast models develop a more expansive precipitation shield. Currently have 30% to upwards of 50% PoPs across our southern and eastern CWA Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Snow should be the dominant precipitation type with ensembles favoring at least an inch across southeastern MN and into west-central WI. But, probabilities of at least 3" drop off significantly within nearly all of the ensembles as the heaviest snow is removed well off to our southeast. Will have to monitor this system for any potential changes but it doesn't seem like we're going to get a significant snow storm anytime soon. A slight cooldown is likely for Saturday before dry, mild weather commences for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1055 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

IFR stratus continues to gradually shift east, though far eastern MN and all of western WI remain under the cloud blanket. The main aviation trend over the past few hours is for isolated dense freezing fog to develop in the wake of the stratus, as observed at AXN and STC. Confidence in the fog forecast is considerably lower than earlier today, however guidance would still suggest that most sites along I-94 in MN/WI see some sort of noted visibility reduction from dense fog through tomorrow morning. Have included TEMPOs for time periods where the worst visibility is most likely per the latest RAP/HRRR forecast guidance. It's one of the nights where we'll have to continue to closely monitor trends and AMD as necessary based on observations. Southerly winds increase after daybreak to around 5-10kts and will support improvements. Suspect all terminals will be VFR at or around 15z.

KMSP...Have been closely monitoring the eastward advance of IFR stratus that has cleared SW portions of the TC Metro. Went with a more optimistic TAF for the 03z AMD, but have yet to observe the cigs scattering out at MSP. Think that should occur early on in the 6z TAF period, but will likely be replaced by the development of fog through daybreak. Included a TEMPO for 1SM visibility from 9-13z. VFR conditions return by 14/15z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Chc -SN overnight. Wind N 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN late night. Wind NW 5-10 kts. SAT...MVFR. Chc IFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.