textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southerly winds expected this afternoon, rising temperatures into the 70s again.

- Multiple chances for rain today through Monday. The highest rain rates and amounts expected in S/SW MN Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

It is a relatively quiet morning, though we are seeing our first solid amount of cloud cover in several days. Temperatures are starting off warm for the day, with widespread 50s and 60s early this morning.

Multiple chances for rain are on the way, stemming from an area of low pressure that will deepen along the lee of the Rockies later today. Our first look at showers today will initiate from the increasing WAA, especially across western and central Minnesota where southerly winds are expected to gust between 25 and 35 mph today. Isolated showers move in as early as 7-9AM over southwest Minnesota, and become more scattered along a northeastwared-moving boundary by the afternoon. Forecast soundings reveal a couple hundred J of CAPE across central Minnesota, potentially supporting isolated thunderstorms embedded within the area of showers.

Warm temperatures today and tomorrow are the last hurrah of this late October "heatwave," as a cold front begins to sweep through the Upper Midwest. The front, and the series of upper waves tied to it, will promote continued chances for light rain through much of the weekend. By that, I do not mean a washout by any mean, in fact it is probably the opposite of that. It will not rain the whole weekend, nor will it rain everywhere. In the spots that do see rainfall, the amounts will be light Saturday and Sunday, primarily at or below 0.1".

Temperatures crash down to near-normal starting Sunday, and another low pressure travels northeast from the Central Plains. This puts us on the northern side of the low, which often can mean a greater chance for wintry precipitation, though current NBM temperatures Monday morning range from the upper 30s to low 40s. Long range guidance suggest any chance for snowflakes will stay to the north and east of us with this system. Rainfall amounts still look promising, with a gradual accumulation of between 0.5 to 0.75 inches across western Minnesota and about 0.2 to 0.5 inches for areas to the east. PoPs drop off by Tuesday, but remain between 10 to 30 percent through much of the rest of the week.

Halloween is starting to get into the range of our forecast, and current guidance shows no major sign of a large system that weekend, which would keep things roughly around normal conditions for late October.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Main concern for this period will be the increasing S/SE winds today. Expect gusts near 30 to 35 kts across western Minnesota and gusts near 20 to 25 kts across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Southerly LLWS of 40-50 knots is also likely this evening over MN as a strong LLJ moves overhead.

In addition to the winds, showers are expected to develop over southwest Minnesota and expand northeastward through the afternoon. The best chance for occasional lightning is at AXN, otherwise expect primarily showers.

KMSP...Confidence for any impact for rain at KMSP is still too low (less than 30%) to include in the TAF. The best timeframe for any SHRA would be between 20 to 23z today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts becoming W. SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts. MON...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.