textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A messy early spring system will persist through tomorrow with rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain across southwestern through east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

- A few thunderstorms will be possible across southeastern Minnesota through this evening, some of which may contain small hail.

- The cool air will persist through Tuesday followed by warmer temperatures and more rain chances for the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows one deep surface low sitting over western Quebec province, with a trailing frontal boundary to another deepening low over eastern KS, also with a trailing cold front. Expansive high pressure covers much of central Canada well north of these systems. Aloft, a compact upper low coming off the Rockies over WY sits within a central CONUS trough with weak ridging on either side of the trough.

KMPX radar shows an increase in coverage of echoes arriving from southwest of the WFO MPX coverage area. There is quite the delineation between p-types, with central MN having mainly snow, southwest into west-central having the wintry mix, and S to SE MN having rain. Where each p-type develops and persists is highly dependent on the location of the warm conveyor belt of this system. The shift south in the p-type advertised in previous model runs, including the AIFS, seems to be coming to fruition as evidenced by not only the slight shift south in the mixed wintry precip but also the shift south in severe weather threat. Latest SPC guidance has removed the severe potential virtually entirely from our coverage area (by the outline, a small sliver of Freeborn County remains) as instability is highly lacking along with effective mixing of warm/cold air. That said, a few thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon through this evening in advance of the Plains low, and a few storms could produce small hail simply due to the low freezing level in place across our area.

Back to the winter weather hazard, which looks to be the more prevalent issue for our area to deal with through tomorrow, the main swath of icy precip looks to be pushing NE through the coverage area this afternoon into early this evening. As the atmosphere continues to saturate and temperatures more uniformly drop below freezing in western and northern portions of our coverage area, the icy precip percentages will drop in favor of a rain/snow mix or all snow p-type for mainly the MN portion of our coverage area during the overnight hours. Western WI will have the longest duration of mainly rain as the p-type, before changing over to snow close to daybreak Saturday morning.

By Saturday morning, the main surface low affecting our area will shift across IA and into western WI, being nudged along by the compact trough aloft which will shift into MN. With the warm advection effectively cut off, leaving modest cold air advection in place with residual surface temps slightly either side of freezing, this will keep the p-types as mainly light snow for the bulk of the coverage area (save for western WI which will have the rain, rain/snow mix and snow p-types at various times). Early morning Saturday through early afternoon Saturday is when the bulk of snow accumulation will occur in our northernmost/Warning counties, while ice accretion drops off significantly. The mixture of rain will also cut accumulations for most places, even if snow showers do prevail for most of the day. The precipitation will come to an end fairly quickly mid- to-late Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening, coinciding with the surface low shifting well into the Great Lakes.

A relatively dry and cool period will then follow for Sunday- Tuesday as Canadian-origin high pressure slides southeast across the region. A weak cold front will slide ESE over northern MN on Sunday, possibly allowing for a few rain showers a few counties either side of the I-35 corridor north of the Twin Cities Sunday afternoon, but chances are no higher than 20 percent at this point (hence, the relatively dry verbiage). Otherwise, cool northwest flow aloft will keep highs in the 30s and 40s Sunday-Tuesday.

A much more active and warmer pattern is expected for the latter half of next week as western ridging moving across the Rockies flattens while a pair of potent troughs swinging around the deep Hudson Bay low sweep through the Upper Midwest. An appreciable increase in Pacific and Gulf moisture being advected into the region combined with an elongated surface front and the upper level features will spell multiple periods of rain, possibly thunderstorms and possibly some snow showers, for the area for late next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

An initial round of showers on isentropic lift is moving quickly across MN this afternoon. This will be spotty showers and may actually trend down over the next couple of hours before widespread precip develops closer to 00z. The heaviest precip will be from 00z to 6z, when we will see moderate rain, with the potential for a rumble of thunder or two, though convective trends are on a downward trajectory for our area, so removed any TS mention this evening. That's not to say there's a zero chance for TS, it's just not a high enough chance to include in the TAFs at this moment. Late tonight into Saturday morning, this batch of precipitation will lift into northern MN/WI, with the MPX area getting into a brief precip lull before diurnally driven rain/snow showers get going in the late morning and afternoon. For p-types, AXN will remain mostly snow, with the highest rates expected 8z-12z. STC looks to be the spot where a little bit of everything will be possible, with all other terminals remaining in the rain bin, a cold rain bin at that.

KMSP...A small TS potential exists from about 1z to 4z, but have kept its mention out of the TAF at this time as this would be an isolated flash if we see any at all. With convective shower potential Saturday afternoon, they will be a mix of rain and snow showers.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT Saturday for Douglas- Morrison-Todd. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for Benton- Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Sherburne- Stearns-Wright. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Pope- Stevens. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Renville-Swift-Yellow Medicine. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for Barron- Polk-Rusk.