textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and clear tonight with some chance for frost in central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

- Warm and dry with highs in the 60s and 70s over the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

High pressure will be the dominant force the rest of today into tomorrow morning. This will provide for clear to mostly clear skies and a warm early October day. This has allowed for ample mixing, but the winds aloft are not high, so gusts have maxed out around 20 knots. There have been some diurnal cumulus as we have warmed today, but this will clear out by this evening. Tonight will have ample radiational cooling, which combined with light winds will allow for some frost to form. The core of this colder area will be in NWS DLH's area of NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin but nearby areas of central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin could also see some frost. Due to this, the previously issued Frost Advisory was continued. Temperatures should rebound quickly tomorrow morning after sunrise.

Early this week will see a northwesterly flow aloft pattern with few signs of any embedded waves and periods of WAA at 850 mb. This will keep us dry and sunny with warm temperatures. Temperatures look to have their early week peak on Tuesday as a warm front passes. A mid week cold front passage will bring cooler, but still above normal temperatures. Late week into next weekend will see a building ridge aloft and the strongest WAA of the week. This will have peak temperatures on Saturday where highs will be in the 70s with some lower 80s possible. With a strong ridge there is little to no synoptic support for rain. Next Sunday into the following week looks to be where a larger shift could happen with colder air moving in and providing our next chance for rain. Variability in guidance makes it hard to set the exact timing and impact, but the following week looks to be more fall like. However how much cooler is uncertain as there are significant spreads with NBM max temperature fields ranging 10 to 15 degrees for the 25th to 75th percentile spread. In comparison most of this week see a spread of 2 to 5 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR through the period. NW'ly winds will generally be near 10kts this afternoon however a few occasional gusts up to 18kts could occur for all sites except for MKT and RWF. Winds become light and variable tonight. Some light BR from radiational cooling could develop near AXN and STC overnight. Given lack of strong confidence of BR development, kept vsbys in VFR with a 6SM BR mention for now. By tomorrow morning, some mid to high clouds are expected to move in the from the west mid-morning tomorrow. No precip concerns. Winds shift to SSE'ly tomorrow morning between 5-10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. THU...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for Benton-Chisago- Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd. WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for Barron- Chippewa-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk.