textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog this morning in Western Wisconsin, with below freezing temperatures this freezing fog could lead to slick spots on untreated roads and surfaces.

- Mild with slightly above normal temperatures and no significant precipitation chances over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today... Clear skies and calm winds over western Wisconsin this morning has allowed for a radiational fog to develop. With the cool temperatures this is a freezing fog which could lead to slick spots on untreated roads and surfaces this morning. This fog will burn off after sunrise as temperatures start to warm. Farther to the west over Minnesota cloud cover is keeping temperatures warmer and dense fog is not expected. Saturation is high enough that some fog could still form in the typical low lying spots and near bodies of water. Looking ahead to later today, a shortwave will pass to our north and provide for another chance for precipitation. Chances for accumulating precipitation will be best over northern Minnesota where there is better forcing. Despite the lack of forcing down here, there does look to be a deep enough layer of saturation that we could see some drizzle today into tonight. This is shown in high resolution models with saturation generally from around 800 mb down to the surface. With temperatures staying above freezing tonight no impacts are expected.

Thursday through Monday... Continued northwest flow aloft through this period. There are a few shortwaves riding along this flow, but little moisture present to provide any good chances for precipitation at this time. This is also reflected in global ensemble systems with little to no precipitation present among membership. These same systems also suggest continued mild temperatures in the 40s to maybe even a few lower 50s. With normal highs now around 40 this is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This makes sense as there is no snowpack yet over the Canadian Prairies, where our northwest flow is coming from.

Tuesday towards Thanksgiving... By the middle of next week it looks like there will be a change in the pattern just in time for the holiday travel period. A larger wave looks to move through the central CONUS in the global deterministic guidance. Still far enough out that many of the details are uncertain, which is reflected in spread among ensemble systems. While the precipition impact around the holiday remains uncertain, what is more certain is the colder air to follow this system and an end to our mild temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The main aviation concern tonight is dense freezing fog across western Wisconsin where visibilities will hover around 1/4 to 1/2SM until a deck of stratus overspreads from the south. Ceilings are generally low-end MVFR currently with this stratus deck as it spreads northwards out of southern Minnesota, but ceilings are expected to drop to IFR overnight. IFR ceilings should persist through the morning at all terminals, with gradual improvement to MVFR likely through the afternoon & evening.

KMSP...Ceilings are expected to drop below 1000 ft by 3-4 AM, & should stay there into at least early afternoon. SOme improvement to MVFR looks possibly by mid to late afternoon, but expect ceilings to remain MVFR into Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...AM MVFR ceilings, becoming VFR. Wind WNW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind W 5kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.