textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool temperatures persist with frost/freeze concerns tonight.

- Warming temperatures Thursday through Saturday with a small chance for showers Saturday morning.

- After a cooler Sunday, a warming trend is expected throughout next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Cloud cover has been helping keep certain areas (western and eastern MN) insulated tonight, but where it is clear temperatures have cooled nicely. Lows are already in the lower 30s where skies are clear and with some additional cooling likely it seems that most of our Freeze Warning should work out. The Frost Advisory may be harder obtain, though, as dewpoints are generally in the lower to mid 20s. Today's weather is basically a rinse and repeat of Tuesday. Winds shouldn't be as strong though with gusts only to around 20-25 MPH across western MN this afternoon. Winds slow this evening and tonight looks like another sub-freezing night for central MN and northwest WI as lows fall to near 30. Farther south, mid 30s are more likely. CAMs do show a chance of a few scattered showers Thursday morning over our far eastern WI counties as a couple of mid- level vorticity maxes rotate through the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings show decent saturation for a few hours at RCX and EAU that precipitation cannot be ruled out. If the showers occur when temperatures are coldest, a few snowflakes are possible before we warm up with daytime heating. These showers should exit east by late morning. Highs Thursday will reach the mid 50s to lower 60s as our current cool airmass moves east and temperatures trend slowly upward into Saturday. Did lower dewpoints a bit, particularly across western and southern MN, to get minimum RHs into the lower 20s during the afternoon. This dry air could mean a risk for elevated fire weather conditions, but winds won't be strong and vegetation is already quite green.

Friday looks really nice as highs will warm into the mid 60s to near 70 while skies are partly sunny. A discombobulated shortwave moving through the Upper Great Lakes Saturday morning could bring some light rain to eastern MN and western WI. Currently have PoPs of 20- 30% for these regions. Saturday's highs will be in the 60s again, but a mostly dry cold front (associated with the aforementioned shortwave) will bring us a slight cooldown to end the weekend. However, temperatures will trend upwards after Sunday as the stubborn troughing that had been over the Hudson Bay and Great Lakes moves east. Zonal upper-level flow will take its place across the central CONUS allowing opportunities for the warmer airmass over the southern CONUS to be advected north. Widespread 70s highs are expected at latest by the second half of next week. Additionally, better chances for rain should creep back into the picture during next week as the warmer airmass will have more moisture. When exactly these opportunities for rain will occur is very uncertain, however. Long-range forecast models do not show any significant upper-level waves on the horizon. They do show a few weaker waves but with large variability in timing and location.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected the entire period. A broken to overcast stratus deck from 4000-6000 feet will continue pushing southeast, eventually covering all terminals during this morning. If enough heating can occur, diurnal cumulus field is possible late this morning through this afternoon. Regardless, expect at least a broken deck of clouds near 5000 feet to last into tonight before clouds begin to lift and slowly break apart. West-northwesterly winds will range from 10-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon. Winds become light/variable tonight.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW to NW at 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Chippewa- Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice- Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright. WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Pepin-Pierce- St. Croix.