textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very hot and humid this afternoon. A cold front will bring cooler and less humid conditions Saturday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front this evening across eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Additional storm chances Sunday night and Monday.

- Areas of smoke may make a return this weekend.

- Much cooler air arrives by the middle of next week with lows in the 50s and highs near 80.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Temperatures continue to climb this afternoon with 2 PM readings now in the low to mid 90s. Expecting to gain another few degrees until reaching highs in the mid to upper 90s by late afternoon. Dew points have not dropped as expected, and in fact remain in the low to mid 70s outside of the core metro. This has allowed heat indices to reach hotter levels than predicted. The Heat Advisory was expanded earlier to the Albert Lea and Eau Claire areas. Am contemplating expanding the Extreme Heat Warning from the metro into central and western Minnesota where heat indices have begun to top 105 in a few locations.

A cold front is beginning to reach west central Minnesota. Winds have shifted northwest behind it from Aberdeen, to Fergus Falls and Park Rapids. Immediately behind the front dew points remain quite elevated, but farther upstream relief is in sight where temps are in the 70s and dew points in the 60s. Storms may fire along the front as it continues southeast this evening. The best chance of this occurring is over eastern MN and WI, mostly east of I-35. Strong instability and weak shear may be enough to get a few organized storms capable of producing hail and wind, but the severe risk is low given low coverage of storms and sub- optimal shear.

Drier air works in Saturday, but warm temperatures will remain. There may be some light smoke returning in the northerly flow, but higher concentrations may work into areas east of I-35 Saturday night and Sunday. MPCA noted there are a lot of variables in play such as fire behavior following earlier rain, and how active fires will become again Saturday. Therefore, confidence is low at this time but still worth mentioning the potential.

Northwest flow will prevail Sunday and a trough will begin to approach Sunday night. Low level moisture will increase and pwats may approach 2 inches by late Sunday night. Some increase in the LLJ and passing disturbances in the northwest mid level flow should spark thunderstorms Sunday night which may continue into Monday morning. Should those storms not develop, Monday should be another very hot day and worthy of headlines. The early day convection also casts low confidence on the potential for renewed development along the cold front in the afternoon and evening.

Cooler and less humid air returns by midweek. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s will bring much needed relief from the recent heat. There are signs of the ridge returning by next weekend which may bring another round of heat toward the end of the month.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

There are two main concerns within this TAF period, those being the potential for some pulse-type storms from around 02-05z from the north to southeast, with guidance not performing particularly well in terms of placing the ongoing storms in northern WI, keeping confidence on the lower side. As such, still rocking prob30 groups as opposed to TEMPO/prevailing as the confidence level just isn't there. The other concern is the potential for further smoke dropping visibilities, with the best chance early on at AXN/RWF. 6sm FU is possible after the storms move out, with a brief break possible during the early daytime hours tomorrow before returning later in the day.

KMSP...Maintained a prob30 for -TSRA from 02-04z due to low confidence. The HRRR has consistently tried to place storms in the area around that time, however other guidance remains farther east and we have yet to see radar or satellite observations favoring further development to the west of where storms currently are. If we do not see some development to our northwest within the first hour of the TAF, we likely do not see -TSRA at all.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/FU early, chc -TSRA PM, otherwise VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. MON...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW to NW 10-15G20-25kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G25-30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka- Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington. WI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.