textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms return to the forecast Friday. A stronger storm or two will be possible across eastern MN into western WI.

- Unsettled pattern will support addition chances for showers and storms through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Early Thursday morning satellite captures mostly clear skies over the southern half of MN and western WI. Farther south, GOES nighttime RGB channel displays a wall of dense fog that has developed over the northern half of Iowa. Neighboring WFO's DMX/ARX have issued a Dense Fog Advisory that extends to the MN/IA border. Through 2 AM, only a few surface observations south of I-90 in MN have reported brief visibility reductions of less than 1 mile. For now, we've opted to hold off on a headline, but observational trends in the near term may warrant a Special Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory for the southernmost tier of counties along I-90. Any fog that develops will erode shortly after daybreak.

The main driver of our weather over the coming days is an active jet positioned across southern Canada. Surface winds across MN have turned southerly in response to a lead shortwave that is currently pivoting eastward across central Manitoba. Mid-level warm air advection out of the northern Plains is increasing, which will yield a slightly warmer day with highs in the low to mid 80s. Southerly winds may gust between 25-30 mph across western MN as high pressure builds eastward and the the pressure gradient tightens ahead of our next frontal passage on Friday. In addition to warmer temperatures and upcoming precipitation chances, the active northwesterly jet will also be responsible for the transportation of wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest across the northern CONUS later today. Strong agreement across smoke bearing CAMs supported boosting sky cover in the grids to capture the hazy appearance of the anticipated high concentration of incoming wildfire smoke aloft. The good news is that the smoke particulates are forecast to remain elevated, which will keep surface air quality in the Good/Moderate categories per the latest forecast from MPCA.

Over the next 24-36 hours, a stronger secondary shortwave will dig across Manitoba and spawn a surface low pressure system that is forecast to move northeast across Ontario prior to occluding and taking residence over Hudson Bay late Friday. While the main lobe of synoptic forcing will remain well to the north of the International Border, the system's trailing cold front will extend well south into the Upper Midwest and be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. CAMs have advertised isolated shower chances within a wing of strengthening warm advection across eastern SD and far west-central MN later this evening, however forecast soundings reveal dry air and capping, so have collaborated with western neighbors to keep the forecast grids dry until Friday morning. Our latest forecast includes 20-30 PoPs across southwestern MN from daybreak through mid-morning, though confidence in coverage of precipitation during the first part of Friday is on the lower side. By midday and beyond, PoPs begin to increase (40-60%) as HREF/REFS CAM clusters capture the anticipated development of scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front, which is progged to approach the I-35 corridor from the northwest early Friday afternoon. Communities along and east of I-35 in eastern MN/western WI are located within a Day 2 Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) from SPC. The pre-frontal environment will be lacking a bit in the shear department, but moisture pooling ahead of the boundary will yield 1500+ J/kg of CAPE. The instability combined with a plume of steep lapse rates (7.5-8C/km) will support a few stronger storms as they grow upscale into a broken line Friday afternoon. The primary severe weather hazards will be isolated instances of damaging wind (60+ mph) and large hail (1"+). Storm chances end by mid-evening or so across western WI.

Northwesterly flow will continue to be the main influence over the forecast through the weekend. A remnant baroclinic zone is forecast to bisect the Upper Midwest from northwest to southeast, serving as a dividing line between cooler Canadian air to the north and much warmer air sourced from ridging over the desert southwest. In addition, the mid-level temperature gradient will provide the tracks for additional precipitation chances through the weekend and into early next week. Latest trends continue to support highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday. We'll watch wildfire smoke trends to the west as the concentration of smoke aloft may also have an impact on surface heating. In the precipitation department, the NBM features PoPs across southern MN Saturday evening tied to a weak subtle shortwave forecast to slide out of the Plains into Iowa. Better chances for showers and storms will be tied to a slightly stronger wave set to move from the Dakotas into MN/WI Sunday PM through Monday AM. Near normal temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s follow for much of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue with only some high clouds moving in from the Dakotas. Southerly winds will be on the breezy side for western Minnesota this afternoon with gusts of 20-25kts expected. Heading into early Friday, there's a non- zero chance for showers out west, but confidence is too low to include any mention for now. Clouds will increase by the end of the period, but VFR conditions will prevail.

KMSP...Too early to include in the TAF, but as mentioned above, a front expected to move through early Friday afternoon. There's uncertainty in the coverage of any potential showers, but would not be surprised to see a PROB30 introduced next TAF set. Otherwise, no concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SW bcmg NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NNE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.