textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist through early next week, with highs rising from the 30s/40s through Thursday to the 40s/50s from Friday into next week.

- Other than a small chance for rain/snow showers mainly south of I-94 Thursday, dry conditions are expected through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a weak cold front oriented west-east sitting over northern MN, with weak snow showers mainly over northeast MN. Weak echoes showing up on KMPX radar are not reaching the ground and are not expected to do so as the front continues to wash out in conjunction with a diminishing trough aloft passing east of the area this morning. Upstream, surface flow is more zonal but with a building ridge over the Rockies atop developing high pressure.

The surface front will drift south, albeit in a continually weakening fashion, over the WFO MPX coverage area while flow aloft transitions from zonal to NW, making for increasing H5 heights and a more stable atmos. Thus, while precip is not expected, cloud cover looks to hang around for much of the day. This will take a bite out of more pronounced warming due to blocked insolation which would push max temps into much more higher levels otherwise. Therefore, highs will only remain in the 30s area-wide, highest over southwest MN. As the front washes out and high pressure slides across the area tonight through Wednesday, skies will clear out and surface flow will take on a more southerly direction, making for the start of a warming trend which will last into next week. Highs will climb into the 30s/40s both Wed and Thu. A weak surface low looks to develop over SD/NE and nudge into southern MN Thu into Thu night with weak forcing aloft. Not a lot of moisture will be associated with this system, and both the weakening trend of the dyanmics plus lessening moisture composition in the models spells a decreasing trend in PoPs for this forecast cycle. Still a chance for scattered rain/snow showers south of I-94 on Thu, but QPF is under 0.10", and any snow amounts will be only up to 0.1".

This meager precipitation chance is effectively the only chance at precip through early next week as model consensus is a dry forecast from Thu night onward for our coverage area. Not only that, reinforced ridging for the end of this week into early next week means higher heights aloft with high pressure centered over the eastern CONUS, promoting a prolonged southerly surface flow. This translates to continued warming over the Upper Midwest the end of this week into early next week with dry conditions. Highs will be pushed into the 40s/50s from Friday onward, well above normal for mid-February.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The majority of precip this evening has stayed north, with too large of a dry layer to overcome near the surface for areas on the southern edge of the band. A deck of stratus near 2500 feet is spreading south, eventually impacting all sites by early tomorrow morning. These lower cigs will likely stick around through mid-late afternoon, clearing from southwest to northeast. Winds remain out of the northwest, gusting to around 25 kts during the morning and afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind VRB <5 kts. THU...MVFR ceilings likely. Chance -SN. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.