textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Northwesterly winds continue to gust around 30 to 40 mph this evening behind a cold front, along with rapidly falling temperatures tonight

- Periods of light snow Thursday through Friday with total accumulations around 2-4" expected, highest amounts across western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

We started the day off with sunny skies and temperatures soaring into the 40s and upper 30s. Much of our warming slowed down by noon as a low level cloud deck spread south across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Temperatures will plummet into the single digits and teens overnight as strong cold air advection continues today. Northwest winds have been gusting around 30 to 40 mph across southwestern Minnesota, and around 20 to 30 mph further north and east. Winds weaken, but remain gusty through around sunrise tomorrow. The strong winds will result in feels like temperatures bottoming out around or a few degrees below zero in the morning. Clouds clear out for much of tomorrow, allowing some rebound in temps, though it'll be hard to climb out of the teens.

Guidance remains in agreement for the development of an anomalously strong upper level low over the Great Lakes. Several kinks within the main flow will provide multiple chances for light to moderate snow Thursday afternoon through early Saturday morning. There may be lulls at times, but after all is said and done, around 1 to 4 inches of snowfall can expected with the highest amounts across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. There are two time periods to watch for elevated impacts from this system... 1) The Thursday morning commute could be difficult with the onset of snow arriving Thursday afternoon and continuing into the evening. For this first wave, forecast soundings show a double layer in the DGZ, though both are relatively shallow. Winds will also be strong just above the surface which could limit snowfall ratios. With both of these in mind, we expect ratios to be around 13-16:1, producing a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow for areas along and east of I-35. 2) Light snow continues into Friday, though confidence is low on how widespread. For areas that see falling snow, the combination of very strong northwesterly winds could lead to blowing snow concerns. Thus, another day of impacted travel is possible with significantly reduced visibilities. One positive is that the snow pack is virtually 2 inches or less across western and central Minnesota where blowing snow tends to be the worst. Areas north of St Cloud and Alexandria may be more susceptible with around 6 inches of snow depth, though likely very crusted over with ice at the moment. Winter Weather Advisories are possible for either a combination or individual impacts from these two scenarios as confidence increases over the next 24 hours.

We remain cold for the weekend and early part of next week, with highs in the teens or single digits each day. The coldest periods will be Sunday and Tuesday morning with air temps dropping a few degrees below zero. Winds will generally remain elevated, especially this weekend. There is a low chance for light snow Sunday, otherwise drier conditions are expected heading into next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Overcast to broken MVFR stratus currently over western and northwestern MN is expected to overspread most of our terminals this evening into early Wednesday morning. Cigs will generally range between 2500-3000 feet. Clouds will begin to clear out from west to east during Wednesday morning resulting in VFR the remainder of the period. North-northwesterly winds will reach 15-20 knots sustained tonight with gusts near 30 knots. However, after sunrise, Wednesday winds will gradually slow to 5-10 knots by Wednesday evening.

KMSP...MVFR expected until 10Z with cigs near 3000 feet before clouds scatter and eventually lift. North-northwesterly winds could gust to near 30 knots tonight. Winds will gradually slow throughout Wednesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR/LIFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SAT...VFR w/ chc MVFR and -SN. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.