textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold start to the day, then a midweek warm up with rain chances returning late tonight and Wednesday.

- A warm, more humid, and stormy pattern takes shape this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

We're starting the day off with temperatures in the teens across the majority of the region. Even some single digits are being reported in central MN where there is still some lingering snowpack. If you enjoy cool mornings, take advantage of it now! A warm up is on the way with increased chances for rain throughout the week. The first chance comes late tonight across southeastern MN into WI. A strengthening LLJ will transport moisture to the region ahead of a developing low near the US/Canada border this evening, quickly increasing dew points from the teens to the 30s by midnight. Forecast soundings suggest that there is a brief window for very light rain to develop across Iowa and southern MN that could expand as it moves east into Wisconsin. It is possible that it takes too long for the vertical profile to fully saturate, limiting any precipitation from developing until well into Wisconsin. Our current PoPs are capped near 30-50 percent to reflect this scenario. Perhaps the higher confidence part of the forecast is that efficient vertical mixing would allow 30-40 mph wind gusts to reach the surface overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, especially across southern MN.

The better chance for rain will come on Wednesday as the cold front tied to the surface low pushes east through the region during the afternoon. The exact timing of the frontal passage will impact highs for the day, with areas east of a line from Mankato to the Twin Cities metro having the best chance of warming into the low 60s. The better moisture transport will be displaced east of the front, which could limit any showers from developing again until further into Wisconsin. QPF is light, even in Wisconsin, where up to a tenth is expected. Winds shift out of the north and we remain milder for Thursday and Friday. The latest NBM has introduced 20-30 percent PoPs on Thursday in response to a subtle wave lagging behind the stronger low from Wednesday.

The pattern for this weekend continues to look impressive, with broad troughing across the western US and a building ridge to the east. This places the central US in a southwest flow regime, allowing for an anomalously wet and warm period. PWAT values could be anywhere from 200-300 percent of normal for mid- April Saturday through Monday. It's uncertain how persistent showers and storms will be during this period, though it is very likely that any given storm will be an efficient rain producer. The average monthly precipitation for April in the Twin Cities is 2.91" and we are already at 1.39" through April 6th. With this weekend's rain, it's looking likely we'll have at least a normal month of precipitation, if not above average. For Eau Claire and St Cloud, the respective monthly averages are 3.08" and 2.61" (Eau Claire is at 1.40" and St Cloud is at 0.89" through April 6th).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Clear and calm to start the period with high pressure centered over Wisconsin. Winds will slowly increase out of the southeast by late morning with some high clouds moving in. By mid to late afternoon, gusts of around 20kts are expected. After 00z, cloud cover increases and MVFR cigs arrive. VFR conditions may return by early Wednesday morning for a few sites, but most will remain MVFR. For now, widespread -SHRA chances remain just outside of this forecast period, but did include some overnight PROB30s for our southernmost terminals.

KMSP...No concerns through the day today, with increasing clouds this afternoon. A few hi-res models have -SHRA during the late evening, but the best chance will arrive Wednesday. Expecting a dip down into MVFR for a few hours overnight with wind gusts increasing into early Wednesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chance IFR. Wind S to W 15-20G30kts. THU...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.