textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain today, with the heaviest amounts expected across western and central MN through tonight.

- Tracking the return of mild October air (60s) for the rest of the work week and upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Soggy Start to the Week...It's a cool and dreary start to the work week across the Upper Midwest. 2 AM MPX radar imagery captured a slow-moving batch of showers across central MN and another area of showers moving east of the MN River between Redwood Falls and Mankato. Precipitation rates remain light with this activity and a slight decrease in coverage over the coming hours is likely for at least central MN as an embedded wave supporting this round of precipitation drifts east into central WI. The national radar displays rain showers and a few thunderstorms extending from the northern Great Plains all the way to portions of NM, TX, & OK. Precipitation can be seen lifting north along a baroclinic zone that has setup between an upper-low pivoting northeast of the Four Corners region and a strong ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS. Aforementioned baroclinic gradient serves as the "track" for widespread precipitation as the upper-low lifts north across NE and the Dakotas later today. A broad precipitation shield, supported by isentropic ascent, anomalous PWATs, and a strengthening mid-level temperature gradient will spread north with time from mid-morning onward. Rainfall rates will gradually increase with the approach of an associated surface low, along with a stronger punch of omega forcing. It's expected that the heaviest rates won't move into the forecast area until later this afternoon, starting across southwestern MN and expanding northeastward. Rain will continue into tonight prior to diminishing by daybreak Tuesday as the precipitation shield exits to the north. Cloud cover, persistent rain, and light northeasterly flow will really limit warming and result in widespread highs in the 40s. Locations near I-90 and farther east into western WI have the best chance of warming into the lower 50s.

Rainfall Expectations...As discussed by yesterday's dayshift, there was a slight eastward shift in the heaviest rainfall footprint, which brings the potential for 1"+ amounts a bit farther east into portions of central and western MN (consensus heaviest rainfall swath extends from Sioux Falls to Redwood Falls to St. Cloud). Despite the shift, the corridor will still be relatively narrow and amounts will drop off to the east of this line. Latest precipitation probabilities for exceeding a half inch of rain are: 80-90% at Madison, Redwood Falls, Alexandria & St. Cloud, 50-60% at Mankato & across the Twin Cities Metro and less than 20% at Red Wing, & Eau Claire. Latest hi-res blends (REFS/HREF) advertise a notable QPF gradient across the Twin Cities Metro (from northwest to southeast).

Rest of the Week/Upcoming Weekend...Rain ends by/just after daybreak on Tuesday and focus will turn towards the next upper-low set to advance across the northern CONUS within broad southwesterly flow aloft. Majority of the precipitation associated with this feature will remain well to the north and west of the forecast area. However, the advection of a warmer air mass in advance of the feature will bring a notably warmer day with highs ranging from the mid-50s across west central MN to the mid 60s across eastern MN and western WI. WAA continues into Wednesday, which should yield the warmest day of the work week with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Guidance is coming into better agreement with the handling of a cold frontal passage later Wednesday into Thursday. The potentially warmer pre-frontal air mass will feature a narrow plume of instability supportive of showers and scattered thunderstorms Wednesday evening. The front will sag to the south of the forecast area on Thursday, allowing for a dry and slightly cooler day. Forecast confidence decreases Friday onward as an active western split-flow regime sends a series of waves towards the central portion of the country. Over the past few days we've talked about Friday as potentially being a warm day, but the latest trends in the guidance have muddied the waters somewhat owing to significant timing disparities between large scale features. With this in mind, I like that the NBM has pulled back slightly, while still running above normal with highs in the lower 60s Friday through the upcoming weekend. Nearly all members of global ensembles and machine learning counterparts feature measurable precipitation during the upcoming weekend -- once again, it's a matter of timing given the evolution of the upper features. We'll continue to roll with chance PoPs on Halloween given the ensemble trends, but will need a few days to have a better handle on timing and coverage.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR to open the 12z period, with just a few lingering showers from overnight captured on radar. A shield of precipitation will move from south to north across the region during the period and will bring a longer duration steady (to at times moderate) rainfall, along with MVFR/IFR cigs. A band of heavier rainfall rates will move into southern MN by late morning and bring reductions in visibility and lowering cigs through the afternoon to the MN terminals (RWF & STC in particular -- MKT, AXN, & MSP will be close on either side of the anticipated heaviest band of rainfall). ENE winds prevail for much of the period before turning southerly Tuesday morning.

KMSP...Brief rain showers remain possible early in the period, but the main story will be the arrival of steadier rainfall rates and lowering cigs this afternoon. This evening will feature the greatest reductions in visibility and lowest cigs (potentially IFR) during the 12z period. Conditions improve by daybreak Tuesday as winds turn southerly.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Chc morning -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. WED...Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15kts. THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.