textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend this week with highs in the 50s and lows above freezing for much of the week ahead.

- Dry conditions to continue through Wednesday until a couple of a couple of systems bring the return of precip chances later this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Turning out to be another beautiful Sunday afternoon across the northern plains today. Current temperatures reaching the low 50s across western MN and upper 40s in western WI with only sparse pockets of high clouds on satellite. Winds near 20 mph have been observed across the Buffalo Ridge this afternoon which will only spread east as we enter the first half of this week. Warm advection will be stronger over western MN tonight which will keep lows in the mid to upper 30s compared to western WI seeing mid-20s for a least one more night.

The forecast remains pretty much on track with the previous discussion. Broad high pressure will keep much of its grasp over the eastern half of the CONUS. However, a slight jaunt eastward will aid in the low-level flow over the northern plains to increase over for the first half of this week. Therefore leaving Monday through Wednesday dry and abnormally warm. Ensemble guidance continues to advertise surface temperature anomalies ranging from 10-20 degrees warmer than normal values (low 40s/upper 20s). Skies during this time will range from mostly sunny to partly cloudy and highs in the 50s. Conditions will be breezy though given the shift into increased southerly flow. Winds gusts will range between 20-30mph each day. Although we are looking to be warm, it looks like historical daily records for the next three days will go undisturbed but we could sneak into the top 10 daily warmest temperatures. Especially if we factor in our overnight temperatures creeping into the mid to upper- 40s in eastern MN into western WI.

The second half of the week features at least two potentials for precip. The first being a weak wave that arrives Wednesday night but guidance continues to advertise this feature as mainly moisture starved. Latest NBM guidance with this system favors the more prevalent PoPs across northern Minnesota however areas east of I-35 into western WI could wake up to a couple hundredths of rainfall by sunrise Thursday morning. The more robust system arrives late Friday into the weekend. Upper-level ridging that had been dominant earlier in the week gives way to a troughing pattern over the western CONUS. The exact track remains unknown however most solutions favor a warm- sector scenario. As this system passes, cold advection wrapping around the back side could cool the vertical profile enough to produce a few snowflakes.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Solid VFR conditions throughout this duration with SKC to FEW250 for sky conditions. Winds to remain in the 5-10kt range through tonight for all sites (a little breezier in western MN), thus not expecting fog developing tonight. Wind speeds continue to increase on Monday to near 15G25kts from the SSW.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE-WED...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.