textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Short duration round of mixed wintry precipitation likely for locations along and north of I-94 this morning. Snow accumulations up to 1" possible north of I-94 in western WI.

- Chance for light snow across southern MN Wednesday evening. Minor snow accumulations possible.

- Up and down temperature trend through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Early morning temperatures are running 10-20 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, as the Upper Midwest is positioned within a region of warm air advection south of a developing clipper. Increasing high clouds and continued southerly surface flow will prevent temperatures from cooling much more and we should see values rise a couple of degrees through daybreak as a mid-level thermal ridge spreads east. The main driver of today's weather is a 990s mb surface low located near the International Border between ND and Manitoba. The surface low is progged to take a clipper track across northern MN today and slide gradually southeast into the Great Lakes tonight. Supporting the system is a strong ~160kt jet streak which is currently positioned across the north central CONUS. A shield of precipitation is forecast to develop to the north and east of the surface low, which mainly impacts WFO DLH's coverage area. Locally, the latest guidance depicts a short duration round of precipitation along and north of I-94 ahead of the systems effective warm front. Forecast soundings at STC/MSP/EAU all feature some flavor of top-down saturation for a couple of hours later this morning as frontal forcing and synoptic lift increase. Also depicted is a stout warm nose tied to the aforementioned thermal ridge and a notable dry wedge in the lowest 10k feet of the column. Putting the pieces together, we have the makings of a higher PoP/lower QPF round of wintry precipition in the cards today and have opted to boost PoPs substantially across the northern half of the forecast area. Given the anticipated thermal profile, locations along I-94 will likely see a combination of light freezing rain, sleet, and snow, where as locations farther to the north and east will see more snow than any other p-type. Not anticipating much accumulation of wintry precipitation, with perhaps just enough snow or a thin glaze of ice to produce a few slick spots. The best chance for snow accumulations up to 1" will be north of I-94 in western WI. Hi-res guidance displays a short window of warming following the precipitation chances and prior to the passage of the system's cold front, which should spell good news for limiting overall impacts.

Northwesterly winds will intensify following a cold frontal passage around midday. The strongest gusts are forecast across western MN where speeds between 30-40mph are likely. Highs will be achieved early this afternoon, before cooling as cold air advection increases behind the departing clipper. We'll take a step backwards on the thermometer tomorrow, as the core of the colder Canadian air slides south within northwesterly flow. Our latest forecast features highs in the upper teens to lower 20s tomorrow afternoon. Over the past few days we've highlighted chances for light snow across southern MN Wednesday evening into early Thursday. Latest forecast trends continue to suggest a more southerly solution to the anticipated precipitation band, so PoPs have decreased across much of the area. We've opted to carry ~30 PoPs along I-90, where minor snow accumulations are possible. Much higher chances for precipitation exist to the south across Iowa.

With precipitation chances becoming less of a story Wednesday evening, focus shifts to a notable warm up on deck Thursday & Friday. An expansive thermal ridge is forecast to build across the northern CONUS in response to developing surface low pressure across southern Canada. The anomalous air mass will send highs into the upper 30s to lower 40s on Thursday, followed by continued warming into the 40s and 50s on Friday. A strong cold front will move through the region Friday evening and will usher in much colder air (20s) for the weekend. Confidence in weekend precipitation chances is not particularly high at this distance, however Saturday's slight chance to chance PoPs are reasonable given what appears to be an active zonal pattern set to prevail through the last few days of the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail overnight, prior to the arrival of a weak storm system that is currently tracking across the International Border. This system will bring breezy southwesterly winds and a chance for some wintry precipitation in the first few hours after daybreak. Have maintained the PROB30's for -SN at KSTC, KMSP, KRNH, and KEAU. There is a chance some PL or ZR may mix in with the snow, but likelihood in occurrence is low. Little to no accumulation of wintry precipitation is expected at all area terminals. Winds will remain breezy and become northwest behind the precipitation late Tuesday morning. Gusts to 30kts are not out of the question, particularly at AXN, RWF, and STC.

KMSP...Maintained a PROB30 for -SN between 14-16z. Light sleet or freezing rain may mix in for a time, with little to no accumulation. Breezy southwest winds turn northwesterly late morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, decreasing chance of MVFR/-SN late. Wind NW 5-15kts. THU...MVFR/VFR, small chance -SN early. Wind SE to SW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW bcmg NW at 10G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.