textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening.

- Periods of showers and storms remain in the forecast through the period, especially during the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe.

- Temperatures this weekend and into next will hover right around the seasonal average for the middle of August.

NEXT WEEK

On Monday, pleasant weather conditions will continue through most of the day with high temperatures in the low 80s. By Monday night into Tuesday, a west to east moving frontal boundary will move across the region. This boundary and the associated moisture that comes with it will increase shower/storm chances across the forecast area. Strong to severe storms and heavy rain are not expected with this activity. Thereafter, northwest flow aloft regime will take shape with periods of shower/storm chances through the end of the work. As of now, nothing looks impressive just some occasional showers and storms each day. Temperatures through the end of next work week will continue to hover around the seasonal average for the middle of August.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Starting out the period fairly quiet with some mid level SCT clouds stemming from ongoing TSRA in Iowa, however we expect to see lowering CIGS and increasing chances for MVFR leading into IFR with some -SHRA mixed in as well after 21z. Winds will increase towards 18z with some gusts to 20-23kts through 00-02z, as chances for -SHRA arrive from southwest to northeast. High resolution guidance shows very isolated coverage of -SHRA with some -TSRA possible, however confidence for now is a prob30 at best. The better chances will be in southern MN, mainly for RWF/MKT with lowering chances as it pushes northwards. Lowering CIGS will result in at least MVFR if not IFR for all sites as the lower levels saturate, some BR possible if -SHRA does not occur. Brief LIFR is also possible, however this will mainly be due to BR/FG alongside the low CIGS.

KMSP...Introduced some gusts to 22kts from 19-02z with lowering CIGS towards 02z. The best chance for -SHRA is generally after 02z according to RAP/HRRR soundings as the lower levels saturate, which will also allow for CIGS to lower even further towards IFR after 08z. The duration of IFR and potential for -SHRA is still uncertain, but the abundant low level saturated and very low ceilings should allow at least some -SHRA during the prob30 window starting at 02z and continuing until at least 12-13z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10kts. MON...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SW 5-10kts. TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.