textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain today favoring southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- Cooler temperatures continue through Saturday morning when a widespread frost/freeze is expected.

- Temperatures turn back to above normal next week with few chances for additional rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Today... Our two upper level waves continue to approach this morning and the combined synoptic support from these waves will be a part of the widespread rain chances today. At the surface, a low will travel across the Great Plains to the southern Great Lakes. This low track will have one the main deformation axes over us and provide for a large area of stratiform rainfall. With the low track this axis will generally setup from south central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. Rain will be possible farther northwest of this axis, but the amounts will be lower. Overall this feels much more like the kind of systems we see during the winter, which as we are in October now is not surprising, as this is deformation driven precipitation and we expect some lighter wrap around precipitation afterwards as well. Looking toward the model guidance there is much better agreement with both the RRFS and HRRR having a similar footprint of the QPF. Looking towards the ensembles there remain some difference between the HREF and REFS with the REFS slightly farther east. HREF PMM has the southeast Twin Cities metro as the edge of highest QPF, but the REFS has this farther east into Wisconsin. Overall rainfall is likely along a Fairmont to Mankato to Twin Cities axis with chances dropping off to the northwest. Southeast of this axis is where the highest QPF with totals of 0.5-1" are expected based on these PMM from the CAM ensembles. Forecast soundings show a setup for stratiform rain with a well saturated sounding and little instability to support thunderstorms. This is supported with SPC outlooks that do not have us in general thunder.

Tomorrow and Saturday... As the surface low departs some additional light rain could occur with some wrap around in the morning. In general, Friday will be driven by CAA associated with a high moving in to our west. The impact from this high will be cold air and gusty winds. The peak of the CAA should come to an end by the evening and that should help bring the gusts down. However this keeps the CAA strong during the daytime heating keeping highs down in the lower 50s. Then under the high pressure light winds and clear skies will allow for ample radiational cooling Friday night into Saturday morning. This creates a favorable setup for frost and freeze. Based on our current forecast and guidance a freeze looks like it could occur everywhere outside of the urban core of the Twin Cities. Even in the urban core a frost still looks likely. Clear skies look to continue into the day which should allow for warming, especially as the the flow aloft starts to shift towards WAA later in the day.

Next Week... This period is driven by persistent ridging with an uncertain end point. The ridging will persist through mid week with some guidance suggesting we could see our next wave late next week, but spread remains. What this means for the weather is warm, much above normal temperatures, return along with few if any chances for rain. So after our coldest air of the season so far Friday into Saturday morning we look to go right back into the warmth. Normal highs next week fall into the mid 50s and our forecast currently has mid to upper 60s. So ten or more degree above normal which could drive our current, already high, departure even higher for the month. We will need to keep on eye on records for October, as another week of 10+ degree above normal temperatures could put us in reach of a record warm month. A lot can change in a short time in fall though, but it will take a big shift in the last week of the month to make a dent in how warm it has been.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

MVFR stratus will continue filling in over the entire forecast area within the next few hours ahead of our next system. Our next system will arrive from the southwest during this morning, with -RA/-SHRA expected from southwestern to central MN east into west-central WI. The rain will continue for several hours before exiting east for MN by evening and WI just before the end of the TAF period. At least MVFR conditions are expected with lowest cigs and visibilities (IFR/LIFR) likely from southern MN into west-central WI where moisture will be greatest. Cigs and cloud coverage will improve to at least MVFR for a few hours once the dry slot moves in on the backside of the rain. However, wrap-around moisture will begin to affect west-central MN by the end of the period, bringing another round of -SHRA and MVFR. Light/variable winds expected past sunrise until the surface low's circulation nears. Will see a general westerly to northwesterly wind shift as winds strengthen, maximizing Thursday evening. Strongest winds are expected in west-central MN where sustained values will range from 15-20 knots with gusts near 25 knots.

KMSP...MVFR begins after 08z this morning as stratus spreads. -SHRA will begin around 15z with cigs falling to 700 feet. IFR expected from 17-00z when heaviest rain is most likely. A brief visit to VFR is most likely Thursday evening before wrap around moisture arrives from the north, bringing MVFR and another round of -SHRA. Northwesterly winds will increase this afternoon through tonight with gusts near 25 knots early Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NNW 15-20G30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.