textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front draped across the area will bring cooler temperatures for western MN today. However, southeastern MN and west-central WI will still see near record highs.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over western and central MN this afternoon. Showers likely for portions of northern WI tonight.

- Another chance of rain arrives Thursday followed by a brief cool down to end the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

We had another day of record breaking temperatures as this extremely abnormally warm airmass sticks with us. MSP, STC, and EAU all set daily high temperature records and MSP's 90 is the latest 90 recorded in the calendar year. The stalled cold front is currently draped from near Hinckley south-southwest along the northward moving Minnesota River to Fairmont. West of the front, temperatures cool from the lower 60s to lower 50s in western MN. Some patchy fog is being observed in our far western MN counties where temperatures have cooled to the dewpoint. East of the front, it is stuffy with still mid to even upper 70s over southeastern MN and WI at this early hour. The front will stay in place for most of today, allowing temperatures get very warm to its east. Low to mid 80s are forecast from southern MN into western WI. EAU's high of 87 would break the daily record so another record breaking day of heat is likely. Highs cool to the west with western MN forecast in the mid to upper 60s. As we near midday, a few CAMs show a broken line of convection developing in western MN and moving northeast as synoptic lift increases over the surface front. Have bumped up PoPs to 40-50% from western to central MN Monday afternoon for scattered showers and even a thunderstorm. As synoptic lift increases, a surface low will develop over southern MN Monday afternoon and travel northeast. More rain will develop well to our north initially, but activity will spread south into our northern WI counties as the low exits east Monday night. 0.1" to perhaps 0.25" of rain is possible with this activity.

The cold front moves east Monday night cooling us down to more normal temperatures for this time of year. We will also enter a brief dry period through mid-week. Tuesday's highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 50s in western and central MN to mid to upper 60s for areas south and east. By Wednesday, highs will be a bit cooler with mid 50s to mid 60s expected across the CWA. Meanwhile, central MN should see some upper 30s for lows return by Wednesday night. Guidance shows our next chance of rain arriving early Thursday as forecast models show a cutoff low over the Rockies traveling east into the Central Plains by late Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough within the northern jetstream is forecast to dig east-southeast from western Canada into the Northern Plains. Guidance doesn't favor the phasing of these 2 features until over the Great Lakes Region, but a surface low should get going over the Midwest the second half of Thursday before traveling east. Model confidence has increased in this solution such that 50-70% PoPs stretch from southern MN into WI during Thursday. We'll have to see how far north precipitation reaches, though confidence in the northern portions of our CWA seeing meaningful rain has trended downward. The northern stream trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the Great Lakes, causing enhanced northerly flow and CAA in its wake over the Upper Midwest. A majority of our CWA could see its first sub-freezing lows Saturday morning as a portion of an arctic airmass advects into the region. However, this "cold snap" will be short-lived as long-range guidance shows amplified upper- level ridging progressing east of the Rockies to start next weekend. This feature would bring another round of likely dry weather and above normal temperatures next weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions at most TAF sites. The one exception is KAXN, with MVFR/IFR stratus nearby. Did add a tempo overnight, and went prevailing with the stratus deck on Monday.

Otherwise the rest of the TAF sites should be VFR through most of the day on Monday with just some high clouds. A cold front will pass through, and bring northwest winds and MVFR stratus Monday evening/night.

KMSP... One change to the forecast was to introduce MVFR ceilings Monday night into Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through and brings northwest winds.

Other than that, the TAF remains the same with light/variable winds tonight and today and VFR conditions.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SE bcmg W 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.