textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry weather tonight through Thursday. Mainly freezing rain & sleet across southern Minnesota/western Wisconsin. mainly snow across central Minnesota.

- Upward trend in the freezing rain potential. Around 0.25" of ice accumulation now looking possible across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Another round of accumulating snow Friday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Winter's return is still on track beginning tonight when a variety of wintry precipitation develops across the area through Thursday. The main change from prior forecasts is that the latest forecast soundings indicate a trend towards greater freezing rain potential overnight, prompting the issuance of a Winter Storm Warning across eastern Minnesota &western Wisconsin where ice accumulations around 0.25" are possible. Otherwise, the general idea of the forecast remains on track with predominately snow expected across central Minnesota, & a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, & snow across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. High resolution has trended slower over the last 12 hours, with HREF & REFS ensemble guidance both suggesting we don't see snow begin across central Minnesota until late this evening, & the wintry mix of freezing rain & sleet not starting until around midnight across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. There won't be a clear-cut line between the snow & wintry mix with this system, instead, more of a gradient in precipitation types is expected where pure snow is most likely across north-central Minnesota, increasing amounts of wintry mix along with some snow, farther south along with some snow, & then predominately freezing rain/sleet across southern Minnesota. Where & when exactly precipitation changes over to freezing rain will be the key for where the greatest impacts will be felt, & likely won't have a great idea for sure until we start to see precipitation begin this evening. Enough of a signal exists for several hours of freezing rain across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin that we feel condiment in upgrading these areas to a Winter Storm warning where around 0.25" of ice is possible. However, this may need to be expanded more to the north & west we see an earlier onset to freezing rain and/or less sleet potential. Conditions will still be icy in the areas under a Winter Storm Warning, but more sleet is expected to eat into the ice accumulations & limit them to a tenth or two. The forecast is simpler across central Minnesota, where precipitation should stay snow throughout, maybe some sleet mixing in at times. Snowfall accumulations of 2-5" are expected through Thursday.

The worst impacts from the ice & snow will come overnight through Thursday morning, with a very icy & slick commute expected Thursday morning. Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing by late morning, which coupled with some solar insolation poking through the clouds should diminish the icing on roads & surfaces. Light precipitation still continues into Thursday afternoon, mainly as rain across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, while light snow continues into late afternoon across central Minnesota.

Late Friday - Saturday system: Round tow of the wintry weather still looks on track for Friday night into Saturday, as an upper level low deepens directly over the Upper Midwest with a surface reflection taking a track through the mid-Mississippi valley. There will be a lull in the precipitation between the two systems Friday morning & afternoon, but we'll see precipitation spread eastwards across western Minnesota through the afternoon & become heaviest Friday night into Saturday. Rain showers are expected initially across southern & central Minnesota, but precipitation likely transitions over to snow across northern & central Minnesota Friday night, while a dry slot moves into southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. While confidence is high that we'll see another round of snow with this second system, it still remains relatively low on just how far south into central Minnesota & Wisconsin the swath of snow will set up. Legacy guidance continues to keep the snow band across northern Minnesota, while the AIFS ensemble guidance continues to place the highest probabilities for 3-6"+ of snow along & north of an Alexandria- St. Cloud-US 8 corridor in WI line. The story of this winter so far has been - go against the AI guidance at your own risk - so we're likely looking at another few inches of snow across at least the northern portions of our area through Saturday. Timing- wise, the greatest impacts from the snow look mainly be on Saturday, with the snowing ending across the area overnight into early Sunday morning.

We quiet down for a few days after these two systems with mainly dry conditions expected into the middle of next week. A few transient waves could provide some light precipitation chances, mainly across southern Minnesota. Temperatures look to remain below normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Only minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast. Did include easterly LLWS of 40-45 knots at MSP and RNH early Thursday morning. VFR conditions will drop to MVFR and then IFR from west to east this evening into early tonight as our next storm system arrives. A wet, slushy couple inches of snow is expected over western and central MN while rain is more likely over extreme southeastern MN. In between will be a region of sleet and freezing rain that looks most prevalent after midnight Thursday into mid-Thursday morning. Visibilities could drop to 1-1.5 miles during times of heaviest precip. Northeasterly winds this morning will quickly become easterly and steadily increase in speed through this evening. Sustained values will near 15 knots while gusts reach 23-28 knots.

KMSP...Light rain will start around 02Z Thursday before changing to snow/sleet near midnight. Timing of heaviest precipitation looks to be from 08-15Z Thursday when a mix of sleet and freezing rain will occur. IFR/LIFR conditions expected during this time frame. Rain will become more likely later Thursday morning as we warm up. Easterly winds will gust to near 25 knots during tonight with easterly LLWS of 40 knots expected from 08-15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/-RASN likely, chc IFR/-SNPL. Wind NE 10-15G25kts. FRI...MVFR/-RASN, chc IFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. SAT...MVFR/-RASN, chc IFR/RA. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Stearns- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Goodhue- Hennepin-Isanti-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca- Washington-Watonwan-Wright. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago- Hennepin-Isanti-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville- Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday for Dakota-Goodhue-Le Sueur-Rice-Scott- Washington. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday for Barron-Polk-Rusk. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix. Winter Storm Watch this evening for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.