textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers & thunderstorms tonight. Can't rule out a few strong to severe storms from far-southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

- Seasonably cool & dry midweek. Rain chances return Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A few remnants showers & thunderstorms will linger over the area towards sunrise, but all of the active weather has moved well off to our east overnight. Cloud cover is expected to stick around through much of the day today, & cool northeast winds mean that temperatures may struggle to warm much out of the 50s & low 60s across much of central Minnesota. Farther east, portions of western Wisconsin will still remain ahead of the surface low/cold front & temperatures could reach the 70s this afternoon along with muggier dew points in the 60s.

We'll stay dry for much of the day today, but another round of showers thunderstorms is expected to spread northeastwards out of the central plains this evening. We should north of the prime environment for severe weather across KS/NE/IA, but will have to watch just how far north a corridor of weaker surface- based instability can make it into far-southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin this evening. Expect scattered showers to quickly spread northwards across MN & WI during the early evening, with the heaviest rainfall & best chance for thunder coming between8 PM to midnight. Can't rule out a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts across these areas, but otherwise we're just expecting your typical spring showers with a few rumbles of thunder at time. The most widespread concentration of thunderstorms, & heaviest rainfall amounts, are expected from southern Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin where rainfall amounts of 1-2" are likely. Elsewhere, the showers will be lighter & more sporadic so only expecting rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25-0.5". The showers & thunderstorms will continue on & off through the night, ending from west to east around sunrise.

Much cooler weather arrives after the rain with temperatures struggling to warm out of the 50s Tuesday. Strong cyclonic flow & colder temperatures aloft will likely create a prime environment for isolated diurnally-driven showers during the afternoon, but rainfall amounts from these will be light. May need to monitor the potential for another frost/freeze Wednesday morning if clouds are able to clear out overnight & the radiational cooling potential is maximized. Seasonably cool & dry weather continues through Thursday with another chance for showers & thunderstorms looking likely Friday into Saturday. Additional chances for showers & thunderstorms look possible over the Memorial Day weekend, but it won't be a washout of a weekend. Temperatures return to more seasonable values Friday into saturday, & could warm into the 80s Sunday & Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Low stratus, MVFR-to-IFR, expected to prevail throughout this duration as a low pressure center and its associated NE-to-SW frontal boundaries remain slightly to the east of the WFO MPX TAF sites. A round of rainfall with some embedded TSRA (mainly southern MN into western WI) is expected from late this afternoon through late this evening, potentially lasting as lingering showers into the early morning hours. Visibilities will drop to as low as IFR, particularly if heavy downpours cross over any given site. Precipitation is expected to end overnight to just before dawn Tuesday morning, followed by a slow rise in ceilings during the day Tuesday. Winds will remain NE throughout, with speeds around 10kts during the day today into this evening, increasing to near 15G25kts late overnight through the day Tuesday.

KMSP...Ceilings to remain in the 010-015 range through this afternoon, with a small shot of some showers developing prior to 00z this evening, After 00z, chances ramp of significantly of a swath of rain/TSRA shifting NE from southern MN into western WI. MVFR ceilings to continue, with visibilities potentially into IFR range should heavier downpours move across MSP. As the precip winds down overnight, MVFR ceilings will continue but NW winds will increase to near 15G25kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts, shifting to SE. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.