textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected throughout this forecast period with above normal temperatures returning over the weekend and continuing through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

satellite imagery early this morning shows mainly clear skies across the CWA for all but one strip of stratus between RWF and MKT. This has allowed temperatures to drop quickly into the upper 20s to low 30s for all except the Twin Cities urban heat island and where the aforementioned clouds are still lingering in southern Minnesota. To the east over northern Wisconsin, there are some clouds moving down off Lake Superior, but they have made very little progress into western Wisconsin over the past several hours. As was mentioned in the previous AFD update, MinTs have been lowered to account for this loss of cloud cover that models struggled to resolve for much of the day yesterday. Felt that CONSSHORT and NBM had a decent handle on both the sky cover and temps, so have used a blend of those to lower MinTs heading into this morning. As of 1:45am CST, MSP is sitting at 34, which is the coldest temperature we've seen so far this season. Given there is still plenty of time to drop a couple more degrees before sunrise, this morning could very likely end up being the first freeze of the season for the Twin Cities metro.

At the surface, a broad 1026mb high is centered over Minnesota. This will allow for some sunshine to at least start the day following several days of gloomy, overcast conditions. Once again, cloud cover remains the biggest forecast uncertainty. As the high drifts to the south through the day, the stratus that is currently rotating around the western periphery will come back into western Minnesota. This won't have much in the way of impacts on sensible weather, but if it does get into southwestern Minnesota (generally along the Minnesota River valley to MKT) early enough, it could impact today's high temperatures. CAA will continue into at least this evening, so highs are only expected to be in the 40s anyway. Overnight into Saturday morning, this cloud deck could work to keep temperatures a little warmer than this morning, when it had previously looked like Saturday would be the colder of the two days. In either case, this will be the last of the below freezing temperatures through at least the middle of next week. We'll see a warming trend Saturday onward with highs making a run at the low 60s by Monday. A weak cold front will move through Monday night, but temperatures will still be in the 50s for the remainder of the forecast period. Precip wise, we look to remain dry overall, but a weak system during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe may bring some light shower chances to eastern portions of the forecast area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Stratus has cleared all but KMKT just before midnight. The big question for this TAF set is to what extent will the stratus come back in from the west later on this morning. KRWF seems to be the site with the highest uncertainty with others staying VFR, so have included some fog/low cigs. By this afternoon, additional clouds move in area wide, but coverage is the question. Have opted to keep all VFR but some SCT lower cigs are certainly possible. Winds are light and variable throughout.

KMSP...Again, big question will be the extent of the cloud cover through the forecast period. For now, went with SCT025 late this evening, but will need to see if that needs to be adjusted to BKN/OVC.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.