textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain continues through this evening, with locally over 1 possible across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Dry & breezy Tuesday will be followed by a chilly night with lows in the 40s across much of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Unsettled weather returns late week, with the best chance for widespread rain & a few stronger thunderstorms Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A soggy start to the work week as a widespread shield of rain continues to move eastwards across Minnesota & Wisconsin. Most locations should end up with at least 0.5 of rain by tonight, while amounts around 1 & locally higher are more likely across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin where showers & embedded thunderstorms will linger the longest. Severe weather is not a concern given the cool & stable boundary layer, but a few thunderstorms could contain brief heavier downpours. Southeast winds will also remain gusty at 30-35 mph before the surface low moves north of the region tonight & rain ends from west to east.

Tuesday looks much quieter as the trailing cold front moves through the area by around daybreak & drier northwest flow develops behind it. Breezy west/northwest winds pick up during the morning with gusts of 25-30 mph expected before winds speeds begin to diminish during the afternoon as Canadian high pressure enters the region. Afternoon highs will end up around 70 degrees, with prime radiational colling conditions expected overnight under clear skies & calm winds associated with the high pressure. Lows in the 30s are possible in more rural areas of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin while temperatures fall into the 40s elsewhere. Rain chances dont stay away for long though, as the front begins lifting back north Wednesday ahead of another disturbance.

Some scattered rain showers are likely Wednesday afternoon, but more widespread chances for rain come Friday into Saturday as a stronger wave ejects out of the Plains & pulls deeper moisture northwards. Ensemble guidance has trended noticeably wetter with this system, with a widespread soaking rain looking increasingly plausible across at least portions of Minnesota & Wisconsin. The main question will be exactly where the surface boundary sets up, as areas near & north of it could see repeated rounds of rain while locations that make it into the warm sector could see a few stronger thunderstorms Friday afternoon or evening. At this point the heavy rain potential looks like the more likely concern, with the severe threat conditional on how far north the warm front can advance & how much instability develops. Additional disturbances remain possible over the weekend as a stronger upper-level system approaches from the west, so the active & occasionally wet pattern will likely continue through the end of the seven-day period. Temperatures remain fairly seasonable through the week with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Most of the -SHRA will be over western WI this evening, but a few stray showers are possible at MKT for the first few hours of the period. Not expecting any significant reductions to visibilities from this activity, though. After -SHRA clears to the east, MVFR/IFR conditions are expected overnight with overcast/broken low stratus and mist slightly reducing visibilities. VFR will arrive from west to east during early Tuesday morning after a cold front pushes through. Scattered diurnal cumulus is possible near 4000 feet mid to late morning but clear skies are expected by Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds ahead of the front will gust to 20-25 knots before slowing to 5-10 knots for a few hours post-front and turning westerly. Winds will then increase in speed while becoming west-northwesterly from early to late Tuesday morning. Winds will be strongest in western and central MN where gusts will reach 25-30 knots. A strong west-northwesterly LLJ will move overhead during this time creating LLWS of 40-50 knots for most of the region. Winds slow to near 10 knots by late afternoon.

KMSP...Opted to remove -SHRA for this evening as any showers will be non-impactful. IFR cigs expected from 03-10z. Winds become westerly by 10z with westerly LLWS expected from 10-13z. VFR expected after sunrise Tuesday morning with west- northwesterly winds gusting to near 20 knots until mid- afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA PM. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind NE 5kts. FRI...MVFR chc IFR w/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.