textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A long duration snow event begins tonight & continues through early Sunday morning. Several inches of snowfall accumulation are expected, with the heaviest amounts of 6-10" across southern Minnesota.

- Well-below normal temperatures arrive after the snow on SUnday and persist through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Forecast remains on track for a long duration snow event beginning tonight across western Minnesota & continuing into the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday. Surface observations already show a few snow reports over eastern South Dakota & northwest Iowa, although it will still take a few more hours for snow to overcome the dry air & begin accumulating over southwest Minnesota. Snow will spread across southwest & southern Minnesota this evening, followed by a likely lull in the snow for a few hours during the early morning hours. The snow then spreads farther north & east into central Minnesota & western Wisconsin through Saturday morning as the warm-air advection & isentropic ascent become more pronounced to the north of the surface low tracking through the mid-Mississippi valley. The snow will lighten through the evening and end from west to east overnight saturday into Sunday as the warp-around region of the low moves off to the east.

Because the surface low is tracking so far south of our area, this event is shaping up as one of our "classic" winter storms, rather as a long-duraton snow event where 12-24 hours of light to moderate snow could still add up to several inches. The heaviest amounts of 6-10" are expected across southern Minnesota, where the chances of seeing 12+ hours of snowfall are most likely. Farther north into the Twin Cities metro & western Wisconsin, we may not see much in the way of snowfall accumulation until Saturday morning, which will limit amounts to 2-5" (higher farther south). Even farther north into central Minnesota, only a few hours of light snow will keep accumulations under an inch or two. While the snow is not expected to be heavy at any particular time, disruptions to travel are expected Saturday given the snowfall accumulation & holiday weekend. If possible, plan on postponing trips to Sunday after the snow has ended & roads will be clear.

After the snow ends, broad canadian high pressure moves into the region along with well-below normal temperatures. Lows will depend on the snowpack in place, but will likely be around zero with daytime highs only in the teens to low 20s. The cold pattern remains in place through the week with an even colder surge of Arctic air expected later in the week. Precipitation chances look low, with some flurries or light snow possible with the intrusions of cold air later in the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 516 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The first wave of snow has already begun over southwest MN and along I-90. Stations within this region have been reporting MVFR/VFR cigs and IFR visibilities. This snow will gradually spread east into late this evening, with RWF and MKT seeing the greatest impacts with visibilities of 1-2 miles and MVFR cigs. Terminals to the north will see lighter snowfall rates and thus should see VFR/MVFR through tonight. A lull in the snow is expected early Saturday morning before the next wave of snow commences as the parent storm system strengthens. Snow should spread area-wide by late morning with heaviest rates and accumulations expected across southern MN (RWF and MKT) where LIFR conditions are likely. Visibilities should sink to 1/2 mile by late morning and last through most of Saturday afternoon. Snowfall rates will lessen as one goes north but still expect visibilities of 1-2 miles and at highest low-end MVFR cigs. Snow will taper off across western MN by late afternoon. Snowfall accumulations still look on track from the earlier discussion. Variable/easterly winds this evening turn northeasterly by morning and increase to near 10 knots. Winds become northerly from west to east during the afternoon with gusts nearing 20 knots for southern MN.

KMSP...Kept a PROB30 from 06-08Z for the possibility of some light flurries but snow should set in after 08Z. MVFR cigs look to be delayed 2-4 hours from earlier TAF with cigs nearing low- end MVFR/IFR by noon. Heaviest snowfall rates are expected from about 16-01Z where rates may reach 0.5 inch/hr. Total snow accumulation of 2-5" is expected. Winds will gradually turn counter-clockwise from easterly to northerly throughout Saturday while increasing in speed. Sustained values will reach 10-12 knots while gusts could near 20 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Saturday night for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Renville-Sibley-Swift-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST Saturday night for Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi- McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-Scott-Washington-Wright. Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet- Redwood-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday for Goodhue-Le Sueur-Rice. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.