textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and comfortable conditions remainder of today with highs into the lower 80s.

- The next best chances for rain comes tonight into Sunday morning, Sunday night into Monday morning, and early Tuesday morning.

- A few storms each of those periods may be strong to severe, mainly over southwestern and southern Minnesota.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values into the middle of next week, then drop below normal late next week.

NEXT WORK WEEK

On Monday, generally quiet and fair weather conditions will resume with near seasonal temperatures and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. The next chance for showers and storms will be on Tuesday as another lobe of energy rotates and races southeast across the region. Thereafter, the aforementioned Hudson Bay upper low will begin to weaken and move east, giving the area a brief period of quiet weather Thursday and Friday before the next system brings increase rain/storm chances next weekend. Temperatures through the second half of the week will be near to slightly below the seasonal average for the middle of August.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Tricky convective forecast over the next 24 hours due to high uncertainty among the CAMs with not only initiation but also projected development during the TAF period. Very isolated TSRA currently ongoing but mostly away from terminals so have been able to start all sites as dry. That said, a variance of PROB30 timing exists across all sites as pockets of TSRA are generally expected but difficult to go with TEMPO certainty as to where/when. Will monitor radar trends and issue AMDs as needed. Otherwise, mid-level clouds will increase underneath upper level passing cirrus/smoke. Ceilings are likely near and after daybreak, and potentially into MVFR level should TSRA occur near any terminals (which also would cause visibility reductions). Winds may be quite erratic owing to nearby frontal boundaries and convective outflows, but overall to remain under 10kts outside of TSRA.

KMSP...Best timing for TSRA still looks to be during the early morning hours up through sunrise, but this could be adjusted should additional clusters develop over the eastern Dakotas which shift east across MN and/or over central MN and drift near the TC metro. Will continue to run with the 10z-13z timing but this could be adjusted earlier or later so radar trends will be monitored closely. Otherwise, mid-level ceilings will develop close to sunrise and persist for much of the day before the mid-levels scour out in favor of high cirrus/smoke passing across the area. Winds overall to remain under 10kts but with potentially erratic changes in direction throughout this TAF period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc early A.M. -SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts becoming NW. THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.