textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Well-above normal temperatures Tuesday with highs near 80, then temperatures fall back to more seasonable levels through the rest of the week.

- Warm temps, dry air, and breezy conditions will help raise concerns for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of western MN Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Overall a quiet early morning and noticeably warmer than what it was 24 hours ago at this time. Current temperatures range in the mid to upper 50s across most areas with mostly clear skies. A warm front currently spans from central North Dakota down to central Iowa. Aloft, troughing over northern Manitoba will move east into Ontario today pulling this surface warm front farther into MN. This warm advective pattern will support breezy conditions with wind speeds between 20 to 30 mph for at least the first half of today. Winds will decrease through the course of the afternoon as the front pushes farther to the northeast. The result of this is temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 70s for most today while even a few areas southwest of the MN River Valley could see the lower 80s.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned troughing pattern deepens over the Hudson Bay region. On the western side of this trough, a surface cold front will help reduce temperatures slightly back into the lower 70 to mid 70s. No rain is expected with this front but drier air, breezy conditions, and warmer temps will help elevate fire weather concerns across portions of western MN. Thursday through this weekend remains dry as upper-level ridging becomes the dominant feature. Temperatures will gradually climb back into the upper 70s once again by Saturday before falling to slightly below normal temperatures early next week. Still lots of modeling time between now and early next week but potentially something tries to get going near the Four Coroners region Monday into Tuesday. Once this front passes, temepratures will cool to slightly below- normal in the upper 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR. TAF remains fairly consistent with the previous forecast. Some few/sct mid to upper-level clouds will move in from the northwest this morning. A warm front moves from the southwest to northeast and will increase wind gusts this between 18-24kts. About 40kt LLWS could be possible across all sites except for AXN for until about 14-15z. Otherwise, there are no additional concerns.

KMSP...Continued with mentions of 40kt LLWS through 14z this morning. Surface gusts at least through the first half of today can be anticipated near 20kts, then decreasing through the afternoon. Winds shift westerly after 21z and then NW this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED PM...VFR. Wind WNW 10-20kts. THU...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts becoming SE.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.