textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures and weak disturbances on tap through Saturday, then a shot of colder air Sunday into early next week.

- Chance for light rain and freezing rain Thursday evening & night. Potential for a slick commute Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

The combination of mostly clear skies & light/variable winds have led to cooler temperatures early this morning. We have nudged our low temperatures toward a combination of hi-res guidance & NBM 25th percentile to better match observational trends. Do not worry though our current temperatures are in the mid 20s which is where our average high temperatures should. The light and variable winds have allowed the development of patchy fog. The fog will likely dissipate as winds increase behind the cold front later this morning. The theme for the remainder of the week is warmth. Our high & low temperatures will run well above normal, which will cause our snow pack to melt. I would be surprised if any snow cover makes it to Friday, but stranger things have happened.

Today's high will be the coldest of the next 5 days with temperatures peaking in the low 30s. There will be partly sunny skies & breezy northwest winds will make it feel colder than the low 30s. The surface high pressure responsible for the cooler airmass slides along the Canada/US border and doesn't really dig into the CONUS. This should limit how intense our cold air advection is today but it should keep our temperatures from overachieving by too much. This high pressure will shift east tonight and allow winds to shift back to the southeast. This will promote another round of warm air advection through Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s with some 40s possible in SW MN. Another high pressure will trek east across southern Canada Wednesday night. This will cause winds to briefly shift to the northeast before returning to the southeast early Thursday afternoon. High temperatures on Christmas day will be in the mid or upper 30s. So will we manage to get a white Christmas this year? Well that will depend on if we're able to hold onto our snow pack today & Wednesday. If we're able to hold on to at least 1" through Christmas Eve - I'd like our chances. I think some locations will manage to hold on to some snow while others will lose most of it before the holiday. Thursday will see a stronger low pressure system move into the Dakotas that will allow better moisture air advection to ramp up in the afternoon hours. This low pressure will trek east through the Upper Midwest Thursday night & could lead to some precipitation across portions of central & eastern MN and western WI Thursday night into Friday morning. This low will weaken and transition into more of an inverted trough by Friday so any precipitation will be on the lighter side, but forecast soundings support a warm nose that would likely result in rain or freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. It doesn't take much freezing rain to lead to significant impacts on travel Friday morning.

Friday & Saturday will remain mild with highs in the upper 30 to lower 40s. There is increasing confidence that we'll have a more impressive trough to dig into the Northern Plains Saturday. A low pressure associated with the trough will track from the Northern Plains along the ND/CAN border and toward Hudson Bay by Sunday. This should limit precipitation potential to our C MN counties - if any precip occurs. The low pressure will intensify as it tracks NE into Canada while a broad Arctic high pressure slides down the Canadian Rockies into the northern US Rockies on Sunday. This should set up some impressive cold air advection Saturday night into Sunday as the high pressure dives further south into the Rockies. Highs Sunday will struggle to warm out into the teens with lows likely in the single digits Sunday night. Precipitation chances with the frontal passage are not great since the better forcing is off to the north with the sfc low. Unfortunately, temperatures will begin to moderate by early next week as ridging builds in across the western CONUS. This should slide east & usher in milder temperatures once again. It's increasingly likely we'll stay relatively dry through the end of the year with no signal for any larger, more organized systems in sight.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Light winds this morning and clear sky VFR for most. A stratus deck is moving across the region from Canada and is currently over northwest Minnesota. At TAF issuance time only AXN has seen impacts. This will continue to spread with MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings. Ceilings should lift back to VFR by this afternoon/evening (varies based on TAF site). Winds start light, but pick up from the northwest at 5 to 10 knots today before returning to light and variable tonight.

KMSP...Clear sky to start the day, but expecting a period of MVFR mid morning to early afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED PM...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/IFR early. Wind light/variable.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.