textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal fire weather conditions this afternoon diminish this evening as winds weaken and temperatures cool.

- Low chance for a few weak thunderstorms this evening, favoring SE MN.

- Long duration messy spring system later this week, with periods of rain/snow/freezing rain all possible in multiple waves.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

An absolutely gorgeous late March day is upon us with temperatures in the 60s in central Minnesota versus mostly low 70s as of 2pm in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin as a weak surface low slides south of the area. This weak surface low could spin up a few weak thunderstorms later this evening favoring far southern into southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/KG amidst 50kts of 0-6km shear along the warm frontal zone. This would generally favor a cluster or two of weak storms but due to the limited instability and lack of lower level shear, storms would tend to be weak and short lived resulting in some rumbles of thunder but not much else. Surface winds out of the east will tilt northeasterly as the surface low slides across the area overnight, before shifting northerly and bringing in marginally cooler air as lows drop to the mid to upper 30s tonight. Temperatures tomorrow look to be closer to normal for the end of March in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with breezy northerly winds on the heels of the outbound surface low.

The meat and potatoes of the forecast is what is possible Wednesday and beyond with an absolute mess of a Spring system likely to impact the region beginning Wednesday afternoon with at least a couple of rounds of weather through Saturday before it exits the region by Sunday. Not only are we looking at multiple rounds of precipitation, we are also looking at each round having a sharp cutoff between snow, wintry mix including snow/rain/freezing rain, and rain depending on how the thermodynamic profile shifts with each wave of the system. Depending on which suite of guidance you look at, we have the potential for several inches of wet/heavy snow, significant rain, and even a wintry mix of rain/snow/freezing rain. Stepping back and taking a look at the broader synoptic setup, a tilting trough moving across the central Rocky Mountains Wednesday will develop and strengthen a surface low as it tilts northeast towards the Great Lakes, resulting in a deepening surface low and broad baroclinic zone overspreading the region by late Wednesday into early Thursday. The baroclinic zone is most evident within the lower mid levels from 850-700mb with forecast soundings showing a large warm nose south of the developing warm front and a sharp cutoff to below freezing temperatures to the north/northwest. The location of this baroclinic zone will be essential in diagnosing precipitation type Thursday morning, with a few scenarios in play. Scenario 1 pushes the warm front farther north due to a more amplified surface low, resulting in mostly rain across the area as the lower level warm nose would keep frozen precipitation types from reaching the surface. Scenario 2 would stem from a flatter wave, keeping the baroclinic zone along southern Minnesota which would result in snow in the northwest, a zone of wintry mix of snow/freezing rain/rain along the baroclinic zone, and a zone of rain farther to the south. Scenario 3 would be if the system were to take a track favoring central Iowa to southern Lake Michigan, which would result in wet snow favored across the area. Different guidance all show these scenarios as possibilities for the first wave which would last throughout the day on Thursday but be most potent right as the surface low arrives from sunrise through midday.

A lull in precipitation follows the first round with a secondary trough sliding across the upper level jet following a similar trajectory to the first, arriving by midday Friday as another surface low strengthens as it moves towards the area into Saturday. Once again, a distinct lower mid level baroclinic zone follows the surface low with a defined warm frontal boundary likely, but where this feature ends up being located being the key in not only precipitation type but also intensity. Within model guidance this second wave is marginally weaker than the first but with greater QPF due to longer residence time of southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture northwards, which would result in slightly higher accumulations despite a weaker wave/forcing. As with the first round, guidance is bisecting the area with the baroclinic zone and precipitation types will vary based on where it sets up. Unfortunately, this feature has yet to be resolved with any sort of confidence and therefore multiple precipitation types are on the table once again through Saturday until the system moves out of the region by Sunday morning. QPF across the two systems looks to be on the order of at least an inch to inch & a half, which could translate to several inches of wet snow if we end up on the colder side of the system. Overall there is highest confidence in mostly snow across western and central Minnesota, with mostly rain across southeastern Minnesota, and a zone in between of greatest uncertainty stretching from southwest Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro and into western Wisconsin where multiple precipitation types are possible with different accumulations of each depending on which guidance you look at.

For now, our advice would be to stay tuned with your local forecast moving forward this week, as this system will likely be hard to pin down and the forecast will be changing until it arrives.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

For AXN and STC, a 3-5 hour period of MVFR is expected after sunrise Tuesday morning as broken low stratus develops. This should deteriorate by the afternoon rejoining the remainder of the terminals at VFR for the rest of the period. Some scattered low-VFR/MVFR clouds are expected over our more northern terminals. Opted to remove PROB30 mention for -SHRA at RNH but kept EAU for Tuesday morning. Slightly better moisture is noticed in forecast soundings at EAU. North-northeasterly winds tonight turn north- northwesterly during Tuesday morning, with speeds increasing to 13-18 knots (and gusts to 20-30 knots in the afternoon. The strongest winds will be in western MN. Winds slow to near 10 knots Tuesday evening turn back to north- northeasterly.

KMSP...North-northwesterly winds will gust to 20-25 knots mid Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Winds slow to near 10 knots but turn more northeasterly as Tuesday night progresses.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Chc -SN/MVFR late. Wind E 10 kts. THU...VFR/MVFR. Chc -SHRA/SN. Wind NE 10-15 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR after 12pm. Wind NE 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.