textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly cold this morning, wind chills will range from 20 to 30 degrees below zero.

- Gradual warming over the next 48 hours, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s by Tuesday.

- The next chance for precipitation arrives late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a cold front leading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

A clear and frigid Sunday morning is on tap for most of the Upper Midwest as we enter our last day of arctic cold, for now. Current air temperatures range from 10 to 15 degrees below zero, with wind chills 10 to 20 degrees colder than that. The Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through 9AM for the entire MPX coverage area (south/central Minnesota, western Wisconsin). The remainder of the day will continue to be cold, but temperatures will slowly begin to climb to above zero by mid-afternoon as the Arctic high moves out of the region. Tonight's lows will hover between 0 and 10 degrees, likely the coldest temperatures we will experience until a front passes on Thursday. A surface low will track south from Canada early this week, ushering in a warmer Pacific airmass. Welcome relief for those who want to get outside and enjoy some wintertime recreation without fearing frostbite. Tuesday will be the warmest, with highs approaching the low 40s. This will likely lessen some of the snow pack, although it is not likely to completely rid it. The cold air won't be far, with the Arctic airmass only retreating to just north of the Canada/US border. This sets up a tight temperature gradient, opening the door for another potential winter storm. However, current models continue to remain relatively quiet.

The next period of activity arrives late Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Precipitation type will be something to keep in mind with this system, given warm temperatures ahead of it and cold on the back side. Total forecast QPF from ensembles range from a few hundredths in the southwest CWA up to a half inch in the northeast CWA. The takeaway from this is that a wintry midweek system is probable, but agreement on how much to expect of what remains to be seen. In all likelihood, a wintry mix of rain, snow, and potentially some ice appear possible. A brief cold snap will build in behind the system with falling temperatures forecast throughout Thursday. Overnight lows will dip back below zero and highs will struggle to warm out of the teens on Friday. Ridging begins to push back into the region over the weekend, but will likely remain more zonal. This pattern will give another period of quiet weather heading into Christmas week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Solid VFR (and bitterly cold) conditions expected throughout this TAF duration. SKC from initialization through sunrise, then a slow increase in high cirrus Sunday afternoon-evening. Breezy NW winds at the start will settle down to light/variable overnight, then pick up from the S tomorrow, mainly close to 10 kts during the day then increase to near 15G25kts going into the evening hours. Models do indicate strong winds just off the deck starting Sunday evening in advance of an incoming warm front, as SW winds in the 1500-2000ft height range increase to 40-50kt. Thus, have included LLWS mention at all sites.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SW early, bcmg WNW 10-15kts. TUE...MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G20kts. WED...MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Anoka- Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota- Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. WI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.