textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold & dry through the remainder of the work week.

- Next chance of light snow arrives this weekend.

- Extended forecast features a warming trend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Slow news day to where "cold and dry" remains the ongoing message. Fun fact, today's high temperature last year was 47 degrees (which is the current daily record). But given our current temperatures ranging around 0 degrees currently, I doubt we'll achieve that kind of warmth today. With mostly clear skies, temps should reach their lowest this morning between 6 to 8 below for those north of I-94. Aloft, troughing remains in place to our east and ridging to our west and leaving a 150kt jet streak directly over head. By looking at current night time microphysics, a band of thin mid-level status is draped near Alexandria down to Mankato. This represents where a thin ribbon of weak forcing exists. There won't be much movement of our synoptic features for the next 24 hrs, meaning areas of some scattered low-level stratus will continue today but otherwise we should see mostly sunny skies. Forecast highs will reach the upper single digits and perhaps a bit warmer along the Buffalo Ridge.

Low pressure over the Hudson Bay looks to break down Thursday into Friday which will send an inverted trough down through the Great Lakes Region by Friday night. Accompanied with that trough will be a ~1045mb sfc high pressure that will locally keep conditions tranquil with mostly sunny skies, and temps in the single digits. Wind chills will fall to 15 to 25 below. Right now, west-central MN has the higher potential to see issuance of Cold Weather Advisory headlines.

This weekend is when we see deep ridging over the western CONUS begin infiltrating eastward towards the central CONUS. It is at this time, flow transitions to southerly and will starting advecting warmer air into the northern plans. Temperatures will reach the upper teens for most areas Saturday then by Sunday, we return to near normal values for this time of year (mid-20s). This also will aid in "some" moisture returning to region as well. A weak clipper embedded within the parent ridging pattern is forecast to proceed through late Saturday into Sunday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this clipper could feature another high PoP/low QPF setup. As ensemble guidance continues advertising high membership for low QPF amounts. How this translates to snow accumulation will depend on how saturated the DGZ can get. As of now, we could perhaps see up to an inch or two of fluff by Sunday evening. Another clipper looks to sweep through the northern plains early next week however, its too soon to get into specifics quite yet. With that said, as we near the end of January, snowfall for this month at MSP is currently 4.1" which is -5.6" from normal. Given what the forecast holds through the rest of the week, its highly unlikely we'll surpass that prior to the 31st.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Compared to the 00z TAF, the only major change was to include some 3000ft scattered cumulus during peak daylight tomorrow, similar to what we experienced at AXN/MKT today. We may see brief borderline MVFR cigs, however the majority of the time we should remain FEW/SCT. Winds remain at 290-320 at or below 10kts throughout.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.