textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread soaking rain today trough Wednesday. Amounts of 0.75-2" expected, approaching 3" across central Minnesota.

- Highs in the 60s today and Tuesday will fall back into the 40s and 50s the rest of the week.

- Additional minor rain chances return for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The best way to explain water vapor and radar imagery this morning is that there is a wall of water quickly moving our way across the Plains. The surface low at 2am was analyzed over northeast Colorado and by this evening is forecast to be up around Grand Rapids in northern MN. This continues the trend of the last couple of days of this initial phase of the storm nudging to the northwest some. Just north of the low track will be where the heaviest rain falls and the model consensus on where the heaviest rain falls today (1.5 to 2.5 inches) is from the ND/SD/MN border, northeast into the Arrowhead. The MPX area will see a mid level dry slot move in late this afternoon, with a lull in precipitation expected tonight as we wait on phase 2 of this system.

Phase 2 is the slow, lumbering low phase of this system. As the long wave trough to our west moves over MN, it will close off into an h5 low that will spin across MN/WI Tuesday and Wednesday. As this happens, the surface low will stall out, with a new low developing along its cold front over southern MN. Model spread for phase 1 isn't too bad, but things get dispersive for where this second low develops and then with how long it takes for it to exit stage right. Though differences in the placement of the low exist, where there is agreement in the models is that a broad and persistent deformation band will wrap around the northwest side of the low. This deformation band will likely result in an additional 1-2" of rain on top of what we see on Monday. Right now, the favored axis for the highest rain amounts Tuesday and Wednesday is from roughly Redwood Falls to Duluth, though this may move around a bit in the next 24 hours. What is impressive are the potential rainfall amounts this week where the heaviest rain axes from these two phases of the system happen to line up. Right now, this looks to be up near the headwaters of the MS River, where amounts of 3-5 inches could be seen. This would be at and even exceeding 3 times the normal liquid precipitation seen for the entire month of November in just 3 days. All in all, this looks to be an incredibly beneficial rainfall. With vegetation now mostly dormant and the ground not frozen, this rainfall will go to recharging soil moisture and helping stream flows and lake levels recover. If the higher end amounts we're seeing do hit the headwaters region, this may be the event that can finally break the cycle of droughts that part of the state has been stuck in since 2021.

For Thursday and Friday, we will finally see precipitation push off to the east, with high pressure drying us out on Friday. As we have seen all fall, the "cold" airmass coming in with the high on Friday will mean we see highs back down around normal.

For the weekend, the GFS has joined the ECMWF in depicting a strong shortwave dropping southeast out of Canada, with a clipperesque system brining another chance of some light rain. Sadly, with its retirement planned for November 3rd, we won't get to see how the NAM will handle this system!

Beyond next weekend it's back to ridging and unseasonable warmth, with the storm track shifting to our south as this El Nino continues to flex its muscles. The 8-14 outlook from the CPC shows above normal temperatures being likely with any hints of winter in the models continuing to remain nonexistent.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

CIGS have generally begun to lower ahead of the approaching weather system that will bring periods of -RA throughout, beginning around 11-12z for AXN/RWF and quickly spreading eastwards to the rest of the sites. IFR visibility/CIGS are expected with periods of LIFR during heavier showers. Winds will also increase as the system arrives, with 140-170 direction peaking at around 25kts sustained with up to 30-35kt gusts from 18-00z before dropping back again. -RA tapers off later in the period from west to east, with a dry slot expected between this round of precipitation and another round on Tuesday.

KMSP...No major changes from the 00z. Still expecting precip to arrive from 13-14z initially MVFR but quickly becoming IFR. Heaviest rain from 18-22z before tapering off after 00z for this initial round. Winds will increase and gust up to 35kts, however LLWS is not expected just due to how strong surface winds are.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...-RA/MVFR, chc IFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR, chance AM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind N 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.