textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance of thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota Monday morning

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms likely Tuesday, a few strong storms possible during the afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A cool late-sumer night is developing under clear high pressure, with highs falling into the upper 40s & low 50s across the area. Patchy fog is possible in spots through sunrise, mainly along the Minnesota River Valley & western Wisconsin. Similar temperatures to saturday this afternoon with highs again in the upper 70s, although winds will be much lighter with the high pressure overhead.

The surface high begins shifting east Monday, with southerly flow returning ahead of the next weak cold front. This front looks to move through sometime late Monday into Tuesday, bringing our next chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms. Moisture return ahead of the front looks fairly limited though, and considerable spread remains within the ensemble guidance regarding precipitation coverage, so rain chances remain fairly low at this point. The first round of thunderstorms looks possible late Sunday night into Monday morning, but guidance generally keep the shortwave & bulk of the precipitation off to the west over the Dakotas. Another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday, but the general model timing brings the front through during the morning hours, which would mean that any widespread convection & appreciable rainfall could be limited. There are a few high-resolution models that are slower with the front, bringing it through during the late afternoon & evening. Should this slower timing occur, we could see a few strong or severe thunderstorms along the front with CAPE values reaching 1000-1500 J/kg during the afternoon along with 30-40 kts of deep shear. Showers & thunderstorms during the morning could always lead to reduced instability & a lower chance of afternoon storms as well.

Otherwise, temperatures look to remain steady through next week with highs generally around 80 & lows in the 50s to low 60s. Ensemble guidance suggests we could get into a more active pattern over the weekend as a train of shortwaves passes over the Upper Midwest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Patchy ground fog and temporary visibility reductions are possible in the the first hour or two of the period. AXN, STC, & RNH already have or are most likely to observe visibility reductions, but we'll monitor observational trends at the other terminals and AMD as necessary. Otherwise, a quiet 12z period will feature lighter winds that yesterday along with some diurnal VFR Cu. Winds turn easterly tonight. High clouds are forecast overspread the forecast area from west to east through Monday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE-SW 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.