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KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread thunderstorms return to the forecast this afternoon and evening. Slight Risk (Level 2/5) across southern MN and far western WI primarily for damaging wind and large hail.

- Critical fire weather conditions to develop across far western MN this afternoon. Outdoor burning is not recommended!

- Near-normal highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s this weekend into next week. Precipitation chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A very mild start to Thursday across the region as temperatures have only fallen into the 60s following yesterday's very warm and windy weather. Morning lows are on track to run a few degrees above our "normal" highs for the second half of April! For now, skies are mostly clear over south central MN and western WI, however ongoing low-level moisture advection will support increasing cloud cover this morning. This trend is displayed by satellite imagery that captures a bank of low stratus moving north through IA at this hour. Looking back to the west, regional radar captures a broken line of thunderstorms slowly drifting northeast across eastern portions of the Dakotas. Short term guidance illustrates the the convection slowly weakening as it moves towards a region of higher convective inhibition over western MN. We've opted to follow the CAM trends and only include slight chances PoPs through the first few hours after daybreak across far west-central MN. The first portion of the day will generally be dry, breezy, and cloudy owing to a moist boundary layer below a capping inversion on forecast soundings. Southerly surface winds will once again gust between 20-30 mph this morning and will support warming into the low to mid 70s for highs early this afternoon.

Driving today's severe weather threat is a deepening 980s mb surface low near the International Border between ND and Manitoba, which is located beneath a negatively tilted shortwave trough forecast to pivot north today. An elongated surface trough extending southeast of the surface low will send a cold front eastward across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Guidance advertises an initial eastward surge of lower dew points moving into western MN by late-morning. The boundary will act as a bit of a "dry- line" and is forecast to briefly stall west of a line from Willmar to Redwood Falls, allowing RH's to crash into the teens and combine with breezy southwesterly winds to create another afternoon of critical fire weather conditions across far western MN. We've collaborated with neighboring WFO's to issue a Red Flag Warning along and west of a line from Douglas to Redwood counties, highlighting high fire danger due to atmospheric conditions and very dry fuels. The eastward progression of this feature will also largely act as the western periphery of convective chances today, so PoPs have been lowered across the far west. Deepening of the surface low will drive the cold front eastward this afternoon and will be the focus for convective initiation across central/southern MN. Showers are possible across southwestern MN this morning, but capping will work against greater coverage showers and thunderstorms until midday/early afternoon as frontal forcing increases and destabilization is maximized. CAM paintball ensembles from the HREF/REFS area in fair agreement with the timing and coverage of today's storms. The hi-res guidance advertises convection developing across central/southern MN between 12-3PM, advancing east towards the I-35 corridor between 3-6 PM, and moving into western WI between 6-10 PM.

The severe weather threat will be the greatest later this afternoon into the early evening. The pre-frontal environment is somewhat conditional given capping and a stable boundary layer along with skinny CAPE profiles on the order of ~1000-1500 J/kg. Strengthening vertical shear and frontal forcing will support blossoming convection with a growing footprint as convection moves east. Initial discrete cells will pose a large hail risk and the potential for an isolated tornado or two. Beyond slight curvature in the 0-1km layer, the column generally features unidirectional southwesterly flow which will support upscale growth in linear segments capable of producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. We'll also monitor linear segments for a low, but non-zero QLCS tornado threat. Little change was made by SPC with the issuance of the Day 1 convective outlook, as a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) remains in place south of I-94 across south central MN, including the TC Metro. Far western WI is also included in the Slight Risk. The remainder of the forecast area is under the Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) with the exception of far western MN where the frontal passage is more a driver of fire weather concerns than severe weather.

Heavy rain remains another topic of interest for the eastern half of the forecast area. Initial convective cells will produce heavy rain, but amounts will be highly variable given the isolated to scattered nature of early storms. The QPF footprint will broaden through the afternoon as storms mature, which is why we continue to highlight locations east of I-35 (and even more so into western WI) as the likely observers of the most rainfall. Our latest forecast has shifted the axis of 0.25-0.5" rainfall potential east to the I-35 corridor, which also has pushed the 0.5"-1" totals generally east into WI. Again, do anticipate variability in rainfall observations given convective nature of this setup and it's possible stronger cells exceed these ranges to the west of I-35. WPC Day 1 ERO highlights far eastern MN and western WI in the Marginal Risk area supported by PWATs 200%+ of normal and the anticipated heavier rainfall rates. HREF's LPMM displays the best chance for widespread amounts exceeding 1.25" east into central WI.

The shortwave driving today's threat will pivot and phase with a trailing wave over southern Canada, developing into a large closed upper-low that will take residence to our northwest through the weekend. The Upper Midwest should be far enough to the southeast that wrap around precipitation should remain to the northwest. Anticipate dry weather Friday, Saturday, and most of Sunday with cooler highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s and lows in the 40s. A shortwave within the southwesterly Pacific jet will advance northeast across the Plains towards the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday, which aims to bring the return of widespread precipitation chances. Driven by strong support from a majority of ensemble members, NBM already features 70-80 PoPs on Monday. Global ensembles and WPC both advertise the potential for widespread soaking rainfall amounts in excess of 1" within a broad shield of rainfall driven by isentropic ascent. Temperatures take a step back into the 50s for next week/end of April as the region remains under the influence of troughing from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR with breezy/gusty winds through this afternoon. Low-to-mid level clouds will increase in coverage through late morning, with MVFR ceilings likely from around sunrise onward for much of the day into this evening, in response to an approaching cold front. SHRA will develop in advance of the front, with TSRA looking more likely for mainly southern-eastern MN into western WI. Conditions may drop to IFR, mainly in response to visibilities in heavy-but-brief downpours.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings may arrive as early as 10z, but very likely by midday, as chances for precipitation increase during the morning but likely in the afternoon. TSRA still look likely mid-to-late afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts becoming S. SUN...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts. MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA. Wind E 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.