textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain transitions over to snow across portions of western and central Minnesota later this morning.

- Increasing trend for a narrow band of accumulating snow with 2 to 4" possible across west central Minnesota down towards Twin Cities metro.

- Turning colder late week with another chance for accumulating snow Thursday night/Friday - mainly across southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A not-so-quiet night tonight as a rather impressive surface low pressure spins over western Minnesota. This system is bringing heavy snowfall from the North Shore across northern Minnesota and the Dakotas. We're dealing with rain and temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s. Current radar highlights a band of rain stretching from La Crosse, WI northwest through Todd County and will lift off to the northeast over the next several hours. Unfortunately, any thunderstorms remained north and east of the forecast area for those of us hoping for some rumbles of thunder.

The upper level trough will close off overhead today as an impressive downstream ridge is set up over the eastern Great Lakes and E NOAM. Our surface low will become nearly stationary and slowly fill in as it drifts from central MN into northwest WI. Today's forecast has shifted a bit from yesterday morning while the large processes really haven't. The main change is for a band of precipitation to form on the southern side of the low pressure and lead to additional 0.10" to 0.25"+ of QPF for those south of the sfc low. This was a solution that that the AIFS has been hinting at for several days and one we've discussed internally as a potential. It remains uncertain with where exactly this band of precipitation sets up so slight changes in the forecast are possible later today. Colder air will filter in behind the sfc low into W MN and continue to push east after daybreak. Precipition will changeover from rain to snow by mid to late morning across W MN and early afternoon for C/E MN. This band of snow will slowly move along the south side of the low pressure with a few inches of snowfall possible. West winds will begin to increase behind the frontal boundary across western and southern MN this morning with gusts up to 40 mph likely. The combination of both strong winds and accumulating snowfall has prompted for us to issue a Winter Weather Advisory across portions of west-central MN until 9 pm tonight. Falling snow and gusty winds will combine to reduced visibility and slick travel this afternoon. This band of snow should track roughly from Morris MN to the Twin Cities and into far western WI. An inch or two will fall in the Twin Cities metro, but the latest trends on the HRRR hint at the potential for heavier amounts could extend from W MN into Twin Cities metro.

Colder weather will be arriving for second half of the week into the weekend. On Thursday, light snow should taper off Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as the surface low slowly drifts to over northern WI. However, as this initial sfc low slowly fills in, another shortwave trough will eject out of CO Thursday. This will cause a sfc low that tracks from Kansas City to the Quad Cities and into Green Bay. This track places us on the northwestern fringe of the precipitation shield. Current forecast support some minor accumulations possible along I-90 in S MN and western WI Thursday night into Friday morning. Latest EPS probabilities of 1" of snow of 30 to 50% along I-90 and 50 to 60% at Eau Claire WI. Those probabilities tank to 20% for 3"+. This highlights the lower confidence on the exact track & intensity of the system. Temperatures will trend back toward normal values for the weekend as we'll dry out behind these systems. The culprit is a 1050mb high nosing in from the Canadian Prairies, we'll see our first bout of below normal temperatures since the beginning of February. This should keep us dry into early next week as warmer temperatures return behind the high pressure. However, there will be additional opportunities for seeing more shortwave activity and thus precipitation next week. There are still several EPS members that hint at a storm between the 25th and 28th of February. This is worth watching as it could add additional precipition before the end of the month.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Key to the forecast today is where will the surface low and associated trough sets up. South of this surface trough, a deformation band of snow will develop by late this morning. Current trends put this trough in central MN, with AXN/STC sitting in a bit a precip lull, with a healthy burst of snow developing for RWF to MSP, possibly even getting down into MKT as well. This snow band will also move into the WI terminals as well. Current TAFs leaned heavily into the RAP forecast, which based on how far south the snow band is coming out of ABR toward Canby looks to have done a reasonable job with the more southern placement of this snow band. This snow band will start to fizzle out around 00z, with cigs possibly improving this evening. However, by then end of the period RAP soundings show IFR cigs overspreading the area again, so do end these TAFs on a pessimistic note. As for winds, they've come in hotter than forecast south of the low, so did boost speeds at RWF/MKT.

KMSP...Prospects for snow continue to increase at MSP. Although it's still in the low 40s now, expect temperatures to be cold enough by 18z to support all snow at MSP. The heart of the band is expected to be either over or just south of MSP. Temperatures will be marginal for snow (so a "warm" snow), but there is potential for 2-3" at MSP in a worst case scenario. Add into this gusty winds out of a 230 to 250 direction resulting in cross winds with that snow and we have potential to really throttle back capacity at MSP this afternoon if they are forced into a 22 ops. Something to keep an eye on.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind N 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN early. Wind NW 10-20 kts. SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Douglas-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for Brown-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for Blue Earth- Faribault-Freeborn-Steele-Waseca. WI...None.