textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory for 2 to 4 inches of snow expanded further north and west. Increasing potential for narrow band of 6+ inches.

- Cool weekend followed by a gradual warmup and a couple chances for rain/snow next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 915 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Well as things get closer, we're starting to see models converge toward a southern solution for Saturday's snow. We still have the HRRR sticking out as northern outlier, though even it is drifting south. At this point, we have to start moving the forecast one direction and that direction we've chosen is a precipitation footprint (placement) that's similar to what the Euro-AIFS has (and has had consistently for several runs). We've really started to focus our QPF and snow to the MN River Valley, with 3-5" of snow currently in the forecast along the MN River toward Rochester. For the headlines, it's a bit questionable if we need the northern tier of counties in the Advisory, but we've left them in as that northern tier is still expected to see 1-2 inches of snow. The other change for the forecast is with timing. Everything has trended slower with the precip, especially with how long it lingers through Saturday afternoon, so we will be extending the advisories out in time to account for the slower departure of the snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Hot dog! It's a beautiful day out there with much of southern Minnesota in the 50s and 60s, and everywhere else in the 40s and 50s under sunny skies. Very dry conditions are leading to some elevated fire weather concerns across southern Minnesota, though the worse conditions are further south and west where wind speeds are stronger. Things turn more wintry pretty quickly this evening as an approaching cold front is already making its way south through northwest Minnesota early this afternoon. Scattered snow showers or flurries are possible as this front moves through tonight, though it is much more likely that the majority of locations stay dry.

Accumulating Snow Saturday... The attention quickly turns to our increasing potential for a band of accumulating snow to develop early tomorrow morning and move from west to east throughout the day. Even with the event being less than 24 hours out, there is still a degree of uncertainty, so let's unpack that.

Our forcing comes on the backside of a departing shortwave within the left exit region of an upper level jet streak. This broad area of divergence aloft will promote lift in the lower levels, and likely enhance the baroclinic zone that will set up following the passage of the cold front tonight. Forecast soundings continue to show the potential for a deeply saturated dendritic growth zone (on the order of 5-10k feet), promoting greater snow to liquid ratios (around 20:1) and heavier snowfall rates (an inch per hour possible). With all of this increasing confidence in a well-forced system and impressive snowfall rates, we have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory north and west. This expansion also takes into account the bimodal split in model guidance, with many of the hi-res CAMs staying well north and global guidance holding south. Our forecast is a blend of those two ideas (favoring the longer consistency of the global guidance, but also taking into account the hi-res models with their better handling of mesoscale features with this system), and this is reflected in the latest Winter Weather Advisory expansion. We expect a band of 2 to 4 inches stretching primarily along or just north of the Minnesota River Valley. This forecast could shift further north towards the I-94 corridor if global guidance trends in that direction. For the Twin Cities metro, southern portions will likely see the highest amounts again. There is about a 50% chance for 2 inches or more and a 5% chance for 4 inches or more.

Also of note, is the potential for a narrow strip of Warning level snowfall (6+ inches) within the center of the band itself. This feels very reminiscent of the February 18th storm where the potential of higher-end amounts has ramped up quickly, and we want to do our best to message this. At the same time, there very likely will be a sharp gradient in the highest snowfall totals, so the decision about any possible upgrade will very likely be a short- term one once we can see if and where that band is setting up. Unlike February 18th, this will be a lighter/fluffier snowfall with minimal wind. Timing- wise, the heaviest snowfall is expected during the morning and early afternoon, with lingering light snow ending by the evening.

Sunday into next week... A much quieter period of weather is expected with temperatures generally warming throughout the entire week. The latest NBM suggests highs in the 40s will be common Wednesday through Friday as ridging builds aloft. For precipitation, a lighter round of snow or flurries is possible Sunday, though the greatest chance for our next round of rain/snow will be Monday into Tuesday for southern MN or a more widespread system some time late next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Like the 00Z TAFs, continued to lean heavily into the GFS/LAV for these TAFs. That continues to put RWF/MKT in the 3-4" band of snow (amounts are trending a bit drier), AXN/MSP in the northern fringe of the band, struggling to reach the 1 inch mark, with STC/RNH/EAU possibly ending up on the outside looking in. One big reason for leaning into the southern solution is how dry the atmosphere gets when looking at forecast soundings the farther north you get. Other than that, it looks like any sub-vfr conditions will be tied to when snow falls. For winds, we may have a few gusts in WI for the first couple of hours, otherwise, we'll be spending our Saturday with wind speeds under 10 kts.

KMSP...We continue to shy away from northern solutions like the HRRR and into the idea that the snow band on Saturday will be falling along the MN River. MSP will get into some light snow on Saturday, but it looks like rates will remain under 0.5"/hour, with amounts really struggling to push much past the 1 inch mark.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NE to SE 5 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. TUE...MVFR. Chc IFR/-SN early. Wind NE 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM CST Saturday for Brown-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker- Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for Blue Earth-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Le Sueur-Rice-Scott-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for Pepin-Pierce.