textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog/freezing fog are possible tonight, followed by a very warm Saturday.

- Cooling temperatures and a winter system will bring a wintry mix and then eventually snow Sunday into Monday morning. Accumulating snow is most likely over eastern MN and western WI. Strong, gusty northwest winds will also occur.

- Cold weather is expected for most of the coming week, although there will be a brief warmup on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Some partial breaks in the sky are visible on satellite, mainly across southwest MN, but most of the CWA has remained socked in with low stratus. Areas of patchy fog also still remain into this afternoon with even ACQ, OWA, and AEL down to 1/2, 1/4, and less than 1/4 mile, respectively. Expecting clouds and fog to continue tonight, with areas of dense fog seeming most likely from southern to central MN. Have not issued a Dense Fog Advisory yet as would like to let the evening shift see how fog evolves. However, did issue a SPS for locally dense fog across southern MN until 6 PM this evening. Freezing fog should also become an issue tonight as temperatures drop below 32 F. Be prepared for slick conditions and car windshields accumulating a glaze of ice while driving. Another soupy day looks to be in store Saturday as WAA drives highs into the upper 30s to upper 40s. The warmest temperatures are expected in southwest MN where perhaps a 50 can occur along the Buffalo Ridge. Continued low stratus and areas of fog are expected during the day as our melting snowpack moistens the low-levels of the atmosphere. In fact, forecast soundings show drizzle possible across eastern MN and western WI Saturday night.

A strong cold front will move from west to east across the Northern Plains during Sunday night, trailing a deepening surface cyclone over the Midwest. Precipitation will become prevalent along and behind the front as the front moves through. Current thinking is that ongoing drizzle will turn into a couple hour period of freezing drizzle Sunday morning before changing over to snow as the colder air arrives. This freezing drizzle looks most likely over our MN counties. The surface cyclone will deepen and move east into the Lower Great Lakes into Sunday night as synoptic lift increases. This will cause snow to become more widespread across our area with prolonged snowfall looking most likely across eastern MN and western WI through Sunday night. Forecast models are trending more aggressive with snowfall amounts with the heaviest snow looking to occur late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. This would then be followed by lighter but very efficient snowfall Sunday night into Monday morning as a very deep DGZ results from the cooling thermal profile. From the day shift guidance, snowfall amounts increase as one goes east, with extreme eastern MN and west-central WI currently progged to see 3-5" of snow with potentially localized areas approaching 6". Should note that a number of models (namely the GFS and MPAS versions) are producing quite a bit more QPF compared to the other models, which results in much higher forecast snowfall. Have opted to stay away from these solutions and go with a more conservative forecast for now, but have taken a mental note. In addition to the snow, northwesterly winds will also greatly strengthen Sunday into Sunday night as the deepening cyclone tightens the surface pressure gradient. Further increasing of winds and gusts may be needed, particularly for Sunday evening when the EPS mean has gusts approaching 40 MPH for MSP. Thinking gusts of 35- 45+ MPH are possible for most of the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. While no headlines have been issued yet for this winter system, strongly anticipate headlines to occur in future updates.

After the system departs to our east on Monday, northwesterly flow will move over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes as an upper-level trough deepens over the northeastern seaboard. This will funnel much colder air into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest for most of next week. With the exception of Tuesday, highs look to only reach the single digits to mid teens for next week. Meanwhile, overnight lows will be near or below zero. Certainly not the coldest temperatures we've experienced but a reminder that it is still winter after our brief time in March this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

No major changes from the 18z TAF with mainly IFR cigs with intermittent LIFR possible mainly for MKT/RWF due to 1/4sm visibility, with slightly better visibility for the more northern sites. A brief period of MVFR is possible as CIGS/VIS lift after 18z, but then return to IFR towards the end of the period with further visibility below 3 miles and cigs below 1000ft. Winds increase from 150-180 after 12z with speeds around 10kts through the end of the period, however this will only advect further low level moisture and thus should not diminish prevailing BR/CIGs.

KMSP...Majority IFR for the period with a slim chance of LIFR, however the lower visibility/cigs will be off to the south towards MKT. A brief window of lifting and MVFR is possible after 18z until roughly 00-02z, after which IFR returns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR. Chc IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts. MON...MVFR bcmg VFR. Wind NW 15-25G30-35 kts. TUE...MVFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for Blue Earth- Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. WI...None.