textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat wave continues through mid week with highs in the 90s & heat index values around 100 degrees through at least Thursday, along with little cooling relief overnight.

- Little chance for precipitation this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

In terms of the forecast values of the forecast, very little has changed as strong ridging both at the surface (with a 1020+ mb high sitting over the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley regions) and aloft (around 600dam ridge atop the north-central CONUS) will be the prevailing features through midweek. Airflow at the surface and mid-levels continue to be favorable for maintaining highs in the 90s along with heat index values from the mid 90s to lower 100s over much of the WFO MPX coverage area. In addition, very little relief will be experienced during the overnight hours as minimum temperatures only drop to the lower 70s outside the Twin Cities metro and to the middle 70s within the 7-county TC metro. Confidence remains rather high in having very little, to nearly no, day to day changes in the temperatures and heat index values through Thursday evening.

This is where the change in the verbiage of the forecast comes in. Because there will be at least 4 consecutive days of heat index values reaching Heat Advisory criteria, the messaging of continued heat-related hazards and illnesses rises to the level of necessitating a change in the headlines from a Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning for all those counties that were previously in the Advisory. (The TC metro counties were already in an Excessive Heat Warning, thus there is no change in the type of headline for those 7 counties.) In addition, have extended all existing headlines out through Thursday as the forecast dictates very similar conditions continuing through late Thursday afternoon.

The counties in the far southern portions of our coverage area that remain without headlines look to be susceptible to at least heat advisory-worthy headlines starting on Tuesday. However, with lesser confidence in reaching those values and the duration of how long that will be, have maintained keeping those counties free of headlines at this time, so will defer to later shifts, especially once past the heat of today, to determine the need for any additional headlines. Regardless of the type of headline, the forecast numbers in terms of high temperatures and heat index values do speak for themselves: While we won't be setting any daily records with the heat this week, the multi- day duration of the event means everyone needs to be mindful of the proper heat precautions & ensure a place to cool down.

There continues to be no chance of rain across our coverage area through Thursday with the deep heat ridge over the area. Models do try to break it down from Friday onward, resulting in a slight decrease in the heat for the end of the week into the weekend along with a slight increase in the chances for showers/thunderstorms for the end of the week. What may come into play is just the residual ground heat helping evaporate any potential moisture that may be advected into the region for the end of the week into the weekend, thus prolonging this dry spell over our region going into the latter half of July. Some longer-range models do try to produce some more appreciable precipitation next week but those solutions look more like outliers than higher confidence at this point.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR. Clear skies with SSW winds 5-15kts. Some gusts near 20 kts are possible at AXN, MSP, RWF, and STC this afternoon.

KMSP...No concerns other than an 18kt SW crosswind across the parallels by late morning through the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SW around 10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming S 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle- Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.