textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- After a cold day today, temperatures will gradually warm into the 50s by Wednesday.

- Dry conditions to continue through late next week until a couple of systems move through heading into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Despite our temperatures in the low 40s, it is a beautiful day across the region with mostly sunny skies and little to no wind. Our quiet continues for several days as upper level ridging remains overhead. Southerly flow on the backside of the high pressure will gradually increase temperatures for us starting tomorrow and lasting through the middle of the week. By Wednesday, highs are expected to peak in the mid-upper 50s, which is nearly 15 degrees above normal for mid-November.

Our next chance of precipitation will not come until late in the week as a shortwave trough lifts northeast out of the Rockies on Thursday. The latest NBM sprinkles 20 to 30 percent chances for rain as the low pressure system moves through, which looks reasonable based on somewhat lackluster forecast soundings. There will likely be limited moisture available and relative weak forcing associated with the wave. Both WPC and the NBM have little to no QPF with this system for us. The bigger impact from this system will be the slight drop in temperatures. This is especially important as long range models continue to hint towards a more organized low pressure system developing across the central US some time next weekend. Within the warm sector of the low, PWATs will likely climb to between 1 to 1.4", which would allow for better rainfall amounts. On the backside of the low, temperatures may drop low enough for frozen ptype concerns, however it does not appear that the push of cold air from the Thursday wave will be enough to make it a concern for our area. We'll have to watch how things develop, but the main takeaway is that next weekend is the best period for active weather across the region in the next 7 days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 556 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions throughout with only a few high clouds. Winds will be light, but gradually take on a southerly direction. The strongest winds will be near 15 kts at KAXN and KRWF Sunday afternoon.

KMSP... VFR conditions throughout with no aviation concerns. Calm winds will become southerly on Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SSW 10-15G20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.