textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through this afternoon. A few stronger storms across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin may produce some hail.

- A stretch of cooler and drier weather arrives Tuesday through early next weekend. A few mornings will see lows near freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A broad area of moderate to heavy rain continues to move northward into central Minnesota early this morning. Rainfall totals across western Minnesota are on the order of 0.5 to 0.75" so far with a few locales reporting around 1". Rainfall amounts are closer to 0.25" further east with Wisconsin largely missing out on this early morning precip. There will be a bit of a lull in the precip before sunrise until more fills in as the surface low (currently centered near the SD/IA/MN border) continues to move east. This activity is currently blossoming over central and northern Iowa with plenty of lightning. Embedded thunderstorms are possible late this morning, but any stronger storms will hold off until this afternoon. A marginal Marginal Risk from SPC highlights much of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin for a hail threat. Soundings continue to show a decent amount of speed sheer but skinny CAPE profiles in this area, so not overly impressed with severe storm chances for our CWA. Also of note, a few models show this turning into a more stratiform rain event like we saw late last night into early this morning by mid afternoon from the Twin Cities metro north and east. This would lead to an increase in QPF amounts for eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin. For now, have not made any major changes to QPF and stuck with an NBM/WPC blend.

Once the rain comes to an end this evening, we look to be dry for quite a while. There's a few minor precip chances with a few waves moving through Thursday and again late in the weekend, but we'll be really lacking in the moisture department. While it will be dry, it will still be on the cool side for late April/early May. Highs will struggle to reach 60 through the rest of the work week and morning lows will flirt with freezing, particularly Friday morning. Highs for the weekend will finally break into the 60s to near 70, which is near normal for early May.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the day with mainly IFR conditions. Winds are generally easterly/southeasterly (with the exception of KAXN which has already begun to turn northerly) around 10 to 15kts with gusts to around 20 to 25kts. Winds will become northwest as the surface low passes to the south during the afternoon. Gusts will increase to near 30kts late this afternoon and continue through much of the overnight. Precip should largely come to an end by this evening from west to east. IFR/MVFR cigs stick around until early Tuesday morning.

KMSP...Moved the timing for thunder up a bit given radar trends. Winds will be south/southwesterly for a couple hours late in the afternoon before turning to the northwest. VFR cigs return after 06z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR early, bcmg VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.