textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy through this evening with a few passing rain showers late this afternoon into this evening, possibly becoming snow showers before ending.

- Quiet weather Friday followed by a rather active pattern Saturday into the first part of next week, including the potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday.

- Cool through Friday then noticeably higher temperatures and dewpoints over the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a surface low on the southern tip of Hudson Bay with a trailing cold front extending over MI/IL and into MO/KS with high pressure to the north of the front. Aloft, a compact shortwave trough extends south through Manitoba province and the Dakotas into the Plains. Deep ridging is well upstream of this trough into western Canada while upper level lows spin over the eastern Pacific.

While the surface features in and near the Upper Midwest are fairly benign today, mainly a high pressure center sliding ESE across the region through tomorrow, the upper level trough will be the feature of interest this afternoon into this evening. Increasing lift near the base of the trough over the Dakotas will spread east into MN in conjunction with a modest increase in moisture from the Gulf. These coinciding elements may well produce some scattered rain showers over western MN late this afternoon which will spread eastward into the evening hours. There will be appreciable lower level dry air in place which needs to be overcome to have precipitation be realized at the surface, so any QPF will be expectedly light, only a few hundredths of an inch at best. In addition, should sufficient wet-bulbing occur into the evening, some of the precipitation could fall as brief snow showers before ending.

High pressure will prevail across the area Friday with light winds and clear but cool conditions. Highs will remain in the 50s for the entire WFO MPX coverage area. As the high shifts to the east on Saturday, this will allow for both increasing temperatures and dewpoints into the Upper Midwest for the weekend into early next week. A NW-SE oriented ridge axis from the PacNW to the Gulf will shift east Fri into Sat, bringing the aforementioned increase in moisture to the region along with appreciable lift and modest instability. While this ridge moves east, a strong longwave trough will develop over the West Coast out of one of the Pacific lows, making for increased jetting over the central CONUS. This will result in a good increase in PoPs for Saturday through Saturday night, with widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into early morning Sunday. QPFs are looking to be 0.25"-0.50" for western and far southern MN, increasing to 0.50"-1.00" for eastern MN through western WI. Not looking for a severe wx threat as that will be closer to the surface low and warm front, which will be much farther south Saturday-Sunday.

The surface low then looks to wobble over the central-northern Plains Sunday-Tuesday while the very deep western NOAM longwave trough slides eastward across the Rockies. Surges of vorticity still look evident to ride the eastern flank of the trough into the Upper Midwest, which will be within the warm sector of this system Sunday-Monday. Highs will range from the lower 70s to lower 80s on Sunday with dewpoints that will jump to the upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday, and remain in place through Monday. While precip will be winding down Sunday afternoon, another round of rain/thunderstorms looks likely Monday afternoon- evening. This round will be aided by a passing cold front and increased mid-level jetting. With moderate instability expected ahead of the front, the stage could be set for a few strong-to- severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon-evening, particularly for southern MN. CIPS analogs and CSU ML guidance has highlighted the Great Lakes thru mid-Mississippi River Valley Sunday-Monday for severe wx potential, but given the trough and frontal positions, it makes sense that Monday is the better day for our coverage area.

The front slides south of our coverage area by sunrise Tuesday, leaving our area in a more stable environment but still subject to multiple additional waves aloft and weak frontal passages through midweek, resulting in continued periods of rain with a few thunderstorms. Temperatures now look warm enough through next week to avoid any additional wintry precipitation for at least the next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

MVFR across portions of MN and WI to start the period. Expecting eventual improvement to VFR overnight with skies clearing during Friday morning. How quickly cigs improve tonight is somewhat uncertain so I opted for a semi-optimistic approach. Northwesterly winds will remain around 5 to 7 knots for most terminals throughout the period. The exception being central MN where winds will be westerly during Friday. Winds turn light and variable Friday night.

KMSP... I opted to remove the TEMPO with MVFR cigs. Observations upstream support low VFR cigs that'll scatter out by sunrise. Model guidance wasn't overly excited about MVFR cigs either. Cigs scatter before sunrise Friday AM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/-SHRA, chance IFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 10-15kts. SUN...MVFR/-TSRA, likely IFR at times. Wind S 15-20G30kts. MON...MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW to E 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.