textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- More storm chances on today with the best chances across central Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

- Saturday trends back to dry before wet weather returns late Sunday through Monday.

- Much hotter temperatures by the middle of next week with 90s expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A few areas of rain stretch from central to southwestern MN early this morning with the strongest activity from near STC to JMR. Here, scattered thunderstorms have been pulsing up and down over the last couple of hours. Some small hail may be possible within the strongest cells but nearly non-existent wind shear will mean organized strong storms are not expected. The activity currently over our CWA will slowly move east but die off as we head towards sunrise. But, the showers and storms over SD will also push east and enter western MN after sunrise this morning. This activity will weaken with time but a few scattered showers and storms are expected over western into central MN this morning. Highs will again warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon while another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop as a shortwave approaches. As of now, central MN into west-central WI looks like the most likely area of showers and storms into this evening. 1000-2500 J/kg of CAPE and 30-35 knots of bulk shear could mean for a couple of supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Most of the wind shear is above 850 hPa so the chance for tornadoes is very small. Cellular storm mode will likely be short-lived as the linear shear profile favors splitting cells, which CAMs have growing into small line segments. The activity will travel east and exit our area late this evening.

Amplified, upper-level ridging will build over the Upper Midwest this weekend, leading to dry conditions Saturday into Sunday afternoon. Highs will be slightly warmer in the mid 80s to lower 90s with the lower 90s more widespread across western MN Sunday. Humidity will also increase as strong southerly low-level flow advects greater moisture into the region. Thus, Sunday afternoon/evening should feel quite humid. Forecast models show another shortwave (originating from the Baja California peninsula) arriving into the Upper Midwest Sunday night. Guidance is in good agreement of showers and thunderstorms pushing north into southern MN Sunday night and then spreading across much of the CWA into Monday afternoon. Severe weather doesn't seem likely owing to the modest, skinny CAPE profiles and lack of wind shear. But, showers and storms should be efficient rainfall producers as PWATs will range from 1.5-2" while moist adiabatic thermal profiles are deeply saturated. The main caveat limiting the chances for heavy rainfall will be the lack of synoptic lift, owing to the weakening of the shortwave. Still, at least 0.5" of rainfall is possible Sunday night through Monday.

Ensembles and deterministic guidance both show the upper-level pattern undergoing more amplification towards mid-next week. Broad troughing will move over the western CONUS while strong ridging moves over the eastern CONUS/southeast Canada. This will leave the Northern Plains in southwesterly upper-level flow with southerly low- level flow underneath. Our first summer heatwave looks possible mid- next week with the NBM already showing widespread highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday. The combination of temperatures and dewpoints would push heat indices into the 100s during the afternoon hours each day. The forecast may seem alarmist or "jumping the gun" but the upper-level pattern does look to support strong heat. With the heat and moisture, instability will also likely be present and any disturbances in the flow could take advantage to produce showers and thunderstorms. However, forecast models don't show much for definitive lift until the upper-level trough over the western CONUS ejects east later next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Initial conditions will feature MVFR to LIFR patchy dense fog at KEAU and KMKT with more patchy MVFR fog possible for the next hour or so. Confidence has increased some to include a PROB30 group for the period of potential TSRA late morning/early afternoon across most sites. All sites dry out and return to VFR tonight. Western WI sites will likely see fog redevelop overnight. Winds remain southwesterly throughout the day before turning light and variable tonight into Saturday morning.

KMSP... Confidence has increased some to include a PROB30 group for the period of potential TSRA late morning/early afternoon. TS coverage will be scattered at best. Winds remain southwesterly throughout the day before turning light and variable tonight into Saturday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind N at 5-10 kts, becoming E. SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE at 10-15 kts MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.