textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rising temperatures through midweek, falling to end the week.

- Next potential for precip arrives late Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The blanket of stratus which was reluctant to dissipate yesterday continues to linger mostly over western Wisconsin but should finally clear out around sunrise this morning. Temperatures currently ranging in the 20s across most sites. A 1032mb sfc high will be located directly overhead today. Therefore we should at least see a few hours of sunshine along with slightly warmer temperatures as compared to yesterday. Most sites should have no issue reaching the mid-40s for forecast highs. Will need to monitor the forward progress additional cloud cover currently over the central plains. A wave moves east- southeastward just over the Int'l Border and is expected to produce another opportunity of precip. Forecast guidance does agree on the development of precip however, the EPS going much more aggressive on QPF coverage as compared to the GEFS or CMC. With Hi-Res forecast soundings advertising another evening of mid-level dry air, have decided to limit PoPs to isolated sprinkle mentions. Lows tonight will be near freezing however given the lack of mentionable precip, slippery road conditions are not anticipated.

Ridging builds over the western CONUS through midweek which will allow for warmer temperatures to return back to the northern plains. EPS temperature anomalies will range ~10 to 15 degrees above normal during this time period. Therefore, NBM forecast highs Tuesday will be in the 50s followed by 60s on Wednesday. By Wednesday evening into Thursday, a cold front sweeps through and returns our highs back into the 40s and 50s. This front also features our "best" chances of precip for the rest of the forecast period. As of now, temperatures appear to be warm enough to indicate an all rain scenario with light QPF amounts. Moisture returns as noted in forecast PWAT values support that dry air shouldn't play as much as a factor as compared to today's setup.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

We have high pressure overhead to start the period. As this slides east through the morning, we'll see southerly winds develop that will stay with us through the rest of the period. For clouds, we'll start the day clear, but clouds will be on the increase from the west this afternoon. Eventually by this evening, we'll see 8k to 10k foot clouds move through.

KMSP...Winds are still expected to go south of 210 between 16z and 18z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb. THU...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind N 10-20G30 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.