textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Early April Winter Storm: Mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow tonight through Thursday. Plan for a hazardous, potentially dangerous Thursday morning commute due to icy roads.

- Headline Changes: Winter Storm Warning expanded across central MN and portions of western WI. An Ice Storm Warning has been issued for Eau Claire and Chippewa WI.

- Friday into Saturday: Another round of accumulating snow possible across west-central MN.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

April Winter Storm: It's a cool and breezy start to April across the region, with mid level clouds on the increase. MPX radar imagery shows a swath of radar echoes increasing across southwestern MN, though dry air in the lowest 10k feet of the column will limit much in the way of precipitation from reaching the surface in the near term. That said, we have observed a few reports of drizzle across southern MN and anticipate this trend to increase through the evening. The early stages of the incoming winter storm system can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery, which captures a broad region of ascent over the central Plains. An upper-wave crossing the Rockies will become negatively tilted, spawning cyclogenesis lee of the Rockies over eastern CO/western KS tonight. The ~990s mb surface low is progged to track northeast through central IA towards Madison WI by Thursday evening. Light precipitation will overspread the region this evening and will become both heavier and more widespread as isentropic ascent increases ahead of the developing surface low. As is the case with many Spring winter storm systems, the advection of a mid-level warm nose will support an extremely complex p-type scenario and the transition zone of the mixed p-types is forecast to bisect the forecast area. As such, we anticipate a p-type gradient will setup from north to south across the forecast area. It remains rather challenging to lock into a "clear-cut" line between p-types, but trends support the best chance for more snow across north-central MN, a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain along and near the I-94 corridor in central MN/western WI, and then mainly rain (and perhaps a rumble of thunder!) along I-90 in southern MN. A very generalized summary of forecast soundings across the band of mixed p-types at ~12z Thursday reveal a warm nose between 5-7k feet and a relatively deep sub-freezing layer beneath the warm nose. Deeper analysis suggests that the warm nose may be a bit more shallow across our MN counties, which may work to limit the high end freezing rain scenario, but support an impactful amount of sleet. On the flip side, soundings across western WI (EAU in particular) reveal a deeper warm nose/more shallow lowest ~5k feet owing to WAA, such that freezing rain will likely be the predominate p-type. Our latest forecast grids have tried to blend these two ideas together, which supports 0.1-0.2" of ice across MN/portions of our western WI counties and the best chance of exceeding 0.25" of ice farther east into WI (Eau Claire/Chippewa counties). Frozen p-type is forecast to transition to rain along and south of I-94 by midday as WAA continues. The mixed precipitation line is forecast to lift north into central MN into Thursday afternoon. Communities along and north of of a line from Swift to Isanti counties will see more snow than mixed precipitation and latest forecast accumulations are on the order of 2-4 inches. The storm system will depart to the northeast heading into Thursday evening. Daytime heating and warm advection should promote travel improvements through the afternoon across the Winter Storm/Ice Storm locales, however slick spots will remain possible (which will also be the case across central MN due to accumulating snow).

The complexity of this forecast features a number of potential failure modes for each respective p-type within the transition zone. Marginal ground temperatures, precipitation rates, the slower timing of the heavier QPF in tandem with a less favorable diurnal cycle after daybreak are just a few of the challenges associated with this storm system. Bottom line is whether it's freezing rain, sleet/slush, or a combination of both p-types, the morning commute is likely to be significantly impacted.

Headline Changes: We have focused our headline changes around the Thursday morning commute, which is expected to be the period of greatest travel impacts. By putting the sounding analysis into practice, we have opted to expand the Winter Storm Warning both north a tier of counties and west to the MN River. The combination of freezing rain and sleet falling within a band of heavier precipitation rates will support hazardous, potentially dangerous travel due to icy roads. In addition, we have upgraded Eau Claire & Chippewa WI to an Ice Storm Warning, where confidence is highest in freezing rain as the predominate p-type and the potential for accretions to exceed 0.25" during the morning. The combination of icing and gusty winds (up to 35 mph) may further complicate the impacts (isolated power outages, for example). No changes were made to the Winter Weather Advisory on either side of the Winter Storm Warning (which addresses the accumulating snow potential across central MN), while communities along I-90 remain headline free.

Storm System #2 (Friday into Saturday): A trailing Pacific influenced bowling bowl upper-low is forecast to translate across the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Recent forecast trends support a slight northerly track to the upper low set to advance across central MN. This places the the heaviest precipitation axis (in this case heavy snow) generally to the northwest of the forecast area. We'll need to keep a close eye on the track for what may be a close call with near-warning level snow amounts in Douglas/Todd counties, as represented by the latest NBM. We are not planning to issue a Winter Storm Watch across the northern portion of the forecast area at this time given the latest forecast trends and after collaborating with neighboring offices. However, it's likely that we'll at least need a Winter Weather Advisory across western/central MN Friday into Saturday for at least a few inches of accumulating snow. To add some context to snow amounts, the latest forecast data suggests ~40-50 percent chance of exceeding 2" along and northwest of a line from Madison-St. Cloud-Hinckley. These probabilities jump to ~70-80 percent in Morris and Alexandria. More details to come, but folks with weekend travel plans to the northwest of the forecast area should anticipate significant impacts.

We'll watch the track of a clipper-type wave Sunday into Monday, but latest trends support most of the precipitation falling across northern MN. High pressure builds early next week, followed by the return of precipitation chances by mid-week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Well, things aren't much clearer with the 00z TAFs than they were with the 00z TAFs, with forecast soundings continuing to show RWF/MSP/RNH/EAU being basically on a razor thin edge for being liquid (so rain or freezing rain) or sleet Thursday morning. Going TAFs still looked good for precip timing, with the main change being to follow the HRRR and RAP in a period of -SN at precip onset between 3z and 8z at MSP/RNH/EAU. After 8z, the warm nose arrives and it becomes a quiestion of PL, FZRA, or RA at these three sites for the rest of Thursday. For AXN/STC, -SN looks to be the predominate p-type, though the RAP never shows the rates getting high enough to support sub-IFR vsbys. For RWF, it's a coin flip whether it will be FZRA or PL, with an evnual transition to plain RA between 14z and 16z. MKT may see a breif period of PL at precip onset, otherwise it will be mostly rain down there.

KMSP...Looking at precipitation rates, there are two windows where MSP could see rates about around the 0.1" threshold for seeing moderate liquid precipitation. The first is 4z-8z, but this looks to be mostly SN or a SNPL mix. There will then be a lull in intensity from 8z to 12z, which is when the main precip shield arrives. We'll have potential for moderat liquid rates from 16z to 22z, but by then we'll likely be making the transition from FZRA to just RA. Once again, though, we've erred on the side of a slightly more pessimistic forecast with the idea of preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR chc IFR. -RASN in evening. Wind NE 10-15 kts. SAT...MVFR/IFR cigs. -RASN in morning. Wind NW 10-20G30 kts. SUN...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Thursday for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Stearns- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Chisago-Isanti-Sherburne- Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday for Brown-Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott- Sibley-Washington. WI...Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday for Barron-Dunn-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Ice Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday for Chippewa-Eau Claire.