textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon & evening. The strongest storms could contain large hail & gusty winds, especially along & north of Interstate 94.

- Seasonable cool & dry this weekend.

- Below normal temperatures continue next week. Rain chances return mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Light rain showers are exiting the area across western Minnesota while another band of light rain is moving across the I-90 corridor across far-southern Minnesota. However, our area of interest this afternoon will be with the building cumulus field across northwest & west-central Minnesota. Instability isn't going to be great after the rain & clouds this morning, but very steep mid-level lapse rates mean than surface-based CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg should develop this afternoon & allow for these budding showers to build into scattered thunderstorms by mid- afternoon. Impressive wind shear for mid-June will be in place over the area as a jetstreak over the Upper Midwest provides around 60 kts of 0-6km shear across MN & WI. However the weaker instability means that any thunderstorms probably wont be able to realize all of this deep shear, so effective shear values look to be on the order of 30-40 kts across central MN & western WI where we expect the most widespread storm coverage. This still plenty of shear for storms to become organized, so we are expecting a few strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon with large hail the primary threat followed by sporadic damaging wind gusts. The main window for these severe thunderstorms looks to be between 3 PM to 7 PM, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting an area along the I-94 Corridor of eastern MN & western WI with a Level 2/5 (Slight Risk) threat of severe storms. The storms will begin to weaken as we get closer to sunset, with the thunderstorms threat mostly over with across western Wisconsin by 8-9 PM.

Weak high pressure moves into the region behind today's system, setting up a seasonably cool & dry weekend with highs generally in the low to mid 70s expected. Can't rule out a coupe, isolated rain showers across western Wisconsin from the cumulus field Saturday afternoon, but better chances for light rain look to come Sunday morning across far-southern Minnesota. However, the main threat for rain looks to set up to our south over Iowa.

Looking into next week: zonal flow aloft should extend the quiet weekend weather into Monday, but building troughing over the Great Lakes brings an increased chance for rain Tuesday into Wednesday. This mainly looks to be another system with widespread rain showers & a few isolated thunderstorms, & the threat for any severe weather or heavy rain is low. Northwest flow persists through the week in response to the troughing over the Great Lakes & building ridging over the west, which will keep temperatures seasonably cool through the week. Models hint at various transient disturbances embedded within the northwest flow that could lead to low chances for precipitation later in the week, but mostly quiet weather looks to be the forecast until next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions through most of the period. However, another round of scattered showers and storms expected late this afternoon and evening where reductions in flight categories will be possible if TSRA impact terminals. TEMPO groups remain in the TAF for MSP, AXN, STC, RNH, and EAU for TSRA. Main impacts will be gusty winds, reductions to VIS due to moderate to heavy rainfall, lowing CIGs, and lightning.

Winds will increase through the afternoon out of the W/NW at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots, terminals across western MN could see gusts to 25 knots during the afternoon and early evening.

Shower/storms activity will quickly decrease after 01z this evening will skies becoming SKC by 02z to 03z with winds becoming light at 3-7 knots, out of the NW.

KMSP...Scattered showers and storms possible late this afternoon and evening. TEMPO group remains in the TAF for -TSRA. If TSRA impacts terminals, reductions in flight categories will be likely. Shower and storm activity will diminish after 01Z. Winds this afternoon will be out of the W at 9-13 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible, becoming NW late this evening at 5-10 knots. Skies will become SKC to FEW around sunset.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN... VFR. Wind ENE at 5-10 kts. MON... VFR. Wind NE at 5-10 kts. TUE... VFR. Chc of MVFR/TSRA. Wind SSW at 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.