textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures over the next week with record highs possible on Saturday.

- No major systems over the next week with only a few chances for light precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

With a large ridge overhead and even the jet stream to our north today into Saturday will see significantly warmer than normal air move into the Upper Midwest. This will allow for temperatures on Saturday to rise into temperature more typical of early June than late March. Check out the climate section below for how likely we are to see records broken. This warmth comes to an end as the jet stream moves back to the south on Sunday. This shift will bring temperatures down closer to normal with highs in the 40s (normals in the lower 40s). Temperatures then slowing warm throughout middle of the week under a zonal flow. Still uncertain how much we warm by the middle of the week with about a 20 degree spread between the NBM25 and NBM75 for highs. This is due to a spread in the ensemble members and systems in how far north the next ridge gets. Behind this another cool down as the jet stream digs farther south, but only to near normal again by the end of the week.

On the precipitation front there are not many chances as these air masses move through the Upper Midwest as moisture remains a challenge. The period of high confidence in moisture will be Saturday morning which could contribute to some radiation fog dependent on how the winds end up. Early Sunday morning could see a chance for some light precipitation but there is a large spread between systems with the ENS fairly confident, but the GEFS and GEPS staying dry. They are all more confident more into northeast Minnesota and the spread is in how far south it extends. This makes sense as the main area of forcing is farther north such that it will be harder to get as much down south. Then we move into early week high pressure before some more light chances midweek. Still a lot of spread midweek as for how much this impacts us. This will depend on how the trough and jet streak evolve as there remains significant spread here within ensemble members and systems, just as mentioned for temperatures above. As both of these precipitation chances come with air mass changes from warmer to cold it could very well see some snow mix in, especially on the back end of either event.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

It will be another quiet night as we await the arrival of a cold this afternoon. There may be a brief period of wind shear for a couple of hours after sunrise Saturday morning, but it's brief and marginal, so kept it out of the TAFs. With the front coming down this afternoon, we'll see the winds veer over 180 degrees throughout the day, with our southeast winds to start this period becoming northerly by 00z. As cold advection picks up, there will be an increasing threat for MVFR cigs at AXN after 3z and at MSP after 9z Sunday.

KMSP...Some minor wind shear will be experienced between 12z and 16z this morning. MVFR cigs are looking increasingly likely to start Sunday given the cooling of the low level temperature profiles Saturday night behind the front.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR cigs in mrng. Wind N 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

With the warmest temperatures so far this year forecast on Saturday, March 21 here are the comparisons between record highs and our forecast highs for our primary climate sites.

Site | Forecast High | Record High ----------------------------------- MSP | 76 | 76 (1938) STC | 72 | 75 (1911) EAU | 73 | 77 (1911)

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.