textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A few hit and miss showers through Saturday, but nothing that will significantly impact plans.

- A slow moving low will move across the Upper Midwest Monday into Tuesday. This system will have near record high moisture content for November, with a widespread soaking rain expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A few showers are ongoing this afternoon across far southern Minnesota on the northern edge of a theta-e gradient along the Iowa border. Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes this afternoon will shift east tonight and allow deeper moisture transport to begin overnight. Can't rule out a few showers lingering across southern MN this evening before expanding in coverage and northern extent overnight into Saturday morning. With the lack of any decent and focused forcing, these warm air advection showers should remain scattered and brief - nothing that will washout Halloween activities. Otherwise, the last day of October will feature light southeast winds, cloudy skies, and temperatures in the 50s. Can't completely rule out a few random light showers around for the rest of the weekend with a weak shortwave lingering in the vicinity through Sunday, but by this point the moisture transport will have waned to a degree the odds of staying dry far outweigh the off chance of seeing a brief period of rain.

Model consistency has improved significantly from a couple of days ago for early next week. A large and deep trough pushing onshore the West Coast Saturday will reach the Rockies Sunday and the Plains Monday. With surface high pressure parked over the mid Atlantic states through the western Atlantic Ocean, a deep and persistent fetch of tropical moisture will advect north in advance of the approaching trough. Also, from the Pacific, a tropical wave will be picked up by this trough while it reaches the West Coast. Pwats exceeding 1.5 inches will begin reaching the central Plains by Sunday evening, and then will reach the Upper Midwest Monday morning. These values are 4-4.5 standard deviations above normal. A 50+ kt 850 mb jet with this degree of moisture will lead to 300+ gm/kgs moisture transport magnitudes throughout the day. A surface low will track northeast across the central Plains to somewhere across eastern SD or western MN, possibly stall and meandering for a time, then continue to push off to the northeast as it interacts with a secondary disturbance. Moderate to heavy rain will arc from the northern to eastern quadrants of the system, ensuring the entire forecast area is likely to see beneficial rains. How fast this precipitation moves through and the track of the meandering low will ultimately dictate rainfall totals, but chances are solid for widespread 1 to 2 inches with about a 10 percent chance of greater than 3 across western and central MN by Tuesday night. As for the severe risk, it continues to appear low but conditionally intriguing if the boundary layer theta-e values can overachieve. Forecast soundings are moist adiabatic, possibly as a result of heavy rain rates in the model, but surface temps would need to be about 15 degrees warmer to result in any upright instability. Given poor lapse rates aloft, even the general thunder threat is fairly low.

Model consistency drops off after Tuesday and differences in the evolution of the upper low become apparent. Some models linger showery precip into Wednesday, some even longer. Split flow returns late next week with no discernible sensible weather features to track.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 723 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Ceilings lower through the night with most sites expected to reach MVFR ceilings overnight into early tomorrow morning. Scattered rain showers spread north across Minnesota & Wisconsin through the morning with brief periods of MVFR visibility possible, although VFR will prevail. MVFR ceilings stick around through the period along with southeast winds of 5-10 kts.

KMSP...Chances for rain sowers will exits through much of Saturday, but 7-12 AM looks to be the primary window. Showers will be short-lived & brief periods of MVFR visibility are possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. MON...MVFR/IFR. SHRA. Wind SE 10-15G30 kts. TUE...MVFR. -SHRA. Wind SE to NW 10-15G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.