textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder than normal temperatures to continue through and beyond the first week of December, with the first widespread sub- zero morning of the season coming Thursday.

- A few flurries/snow showers are possible in SE MN into W WI later today, followed by clipper systems Tue Night into Wed and on Fri bringing additional light snow showers for the entire coverage area.

- A slower and more organized frontal system may be possible late week into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows expansive cold Canadian-origin high pressure between the Rockies and Appalachians, while a conglomerate of weak low pressure centers sits over the Rockies to the West Coast. Aloft, a weak H5 bubble ridge axis moving into the Great Lakes has a sharp longwave trough axis on its heels, extending from northern Manitoba province down to the Four Corners region, while an amplified longwave ridge sits just offshore of western NOAM.

The clearing skies underneath the large high along with the fresh snowpack has allowed temperatures this morning to plummet to the single digits above (and even a few below) zero over mainly the MN portion of the WFO MPX coverage area while the WI portion, where lingering clouds are more prevalent, hold in the teens. Clouds will be on the increase today as the aforementioned deep trough slides eastward across the region. A swath of moisture being dragged northeast ahead of the trough looks to have its greatest concentration within the DGZ per model soundings across the region. While upper level support is not all that impressive and surface support is nearly nil, there may be sufficient dynamics at play to squeeze out some flurries and/or snow showers for mainly the southern portion of our coverage area this afternoon. Where snow does occur, a trace accumulation is reasonable with a half inch of snow at the high end of the spectrum. Thus, few to no impacts are expected given what has already occurred recently. With temperatures starting out quite cold followed by the increase in cloud cover and widespread snow cover, temperatures will not recover much today so will only look for highs in the upper teens to around 20.

Clouds will generally stick around tonight through Tuesday, possibly a few breaks in the overcast Tuesday morning, but again the cold temperatures will remain in place with lows again into the single digits to lower teens early Tuesday morning followed by slightly warmer highs into the 20s area-wide. A weak clipper system developing over northwest Canada will drive southeast during the day Tuesday, moving across ND through northern MN and into the MI UP Tuesday night through Wednesday. A few more snow showers are again possible late Tuesday into early Wednesday with this system, but it will again produce little in the way of more snowfall for the area, likely in the Trace to 0.5" range.

Behind this midweek system, another reinforcing shot of arctic air is expected across the north-central CONUS as broad northwest flow aloft develops atop a 1035mb high pressure airmass driving southeast from western Canada. This will push highs on Wednesday into the lower teens to lower 20s, then the full force of this airmass will be felt Thursday with morning lows into the teens below zero and highs again in the lower teens to lower 20s. "Warmer" air returns going into the end of the week as upper flow becomes more zonal atop a relative warm sector south of a west-to-east frontal boundary developing near the international border. Friday also looks to feature a weak surface trough drifting through the area which could produce some flurries or snow showers over the eastern half of the coverage area; again, little to no impacts are expected.

There is a possible more organized system to keep an eye on for Saturday, along the aforementioned frontal boundary. Both the GFS and EC models indicate a shortwave trough axis aloft moving eastward from the PacNW across the Northern Rockies Friday. This trough axis looks to become sharper over the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Saturday, with a cyclogenesis occurring along the front and this developing low moving eastward over the Dakotas and through MN. While there were a few indications of this scenario the past couple nights, there looks to be better agreement in this thinking in this deterministic and ensemble model cycle. Admittedly, this system is still 5-6 days out so there's plenty that could vary between then and now, nor can any specifics be determined at this point, but have opted to nudge up NBM PoPs from the 10s-20s into the 30s, into the "Chance" range. Have also collab'd with WPC to increase QPF a few hundredths of an inch to indicate at least a small amount of snow with this system.

Another arctic high pressure airmass looks to then follow this potential weekend system, again plunging lows to the single digits above and below zero with highs in the 10-20 degree range for early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Any site that currently has VFR cigs can anticipate those to lower to MVFR then IFR as the morning progresses. Wind speeds overall prevail out of the south-southwest between 5-10kts. A mid-level wave will help advect warmer air aloft combined with weak lift to generate a potential of a few snow showers late this morning into early afternoon. Chances for -SNSH extend as far north as KMSP however the better setup looks to be more so for RNH and EAU. Regardless, PROB30 timing was adjusted at each site based off of latest forecast guidance. Once the potential for snow showers ends late afternoon, IFR cigs will stick around for the remainder of the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR with -SN possible early. Wind NW 10-15kts. THU...VFR and cold. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR with MVFR -SN possible late. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.