textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A mostly quiet week ahead with varying temperatures and a few low chances for snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Extensive mid level stratus is beginning to break up this morning across western and central MN. This trend should continue for the next several hours, but higher clouds will begin increasing later this morning as the next wave approaches for this afternoon and evening. Scattered flurries will be possible as long as the lower stratus is in place for the next few hours. The next wave will track from MT to eastern SD by this evening and then to southern IA early Tuesday morning. Some light snow is possible across southwestern MN late this afternoon and evening, but amounts will be negligible. A few flurries are possible farther northeast, but dry air under the mid level cloud deck will keep chances low. Another weak system will dive south across MN Tuesday night and early Wednesday, bringing another low chance for light snow or flurries west of I-35.

Moderating temperatures Wednesday and especially Thursday will occur thanks to a clipper tracking across central or southern Canada. Latest guidance is quite a bit farther north than in previous days, so PoPs continue to decline. This shift also increases the chance of breaking 40 for highs Thursday to about 60 percent across southwestern MN. The system will send a cold front south late Thursday night or Friday which will knock temperatures back through Saturday. The ridge will build back early next week and temperatures should rebound back into the 30s or 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Upper level clouds are expected to move in ahead of a warm front moving across the area today, with a very small chance of -SN or flurries only for RWF as all of it passes to the southwest. There is some conflicting model guidance concerning a line of stratus that will be moving southwards across the region beginning 06z in the north to 11z in the south, with a split between widespread IFR cigs and FEW/SCT low level clouds. The CAMs in general are bullish on IFR CIGS, however there is also low level omega which doesn't seem realistic given the location of the expected front and subsidence/dry air aloft. Given this, elected to go mainly FEW/SCT IFR levels clouds with a few sites seeing brief IFR conditions, mainly on the northern end of the area being AXN/STC. Winds remain relatively light with a direction favoring 330-360, however light enough such that VRB winds are most likely after 00z.

KMSP...The above mentioned model split is the main decision point, whether or not to commit to IFR CIGS after 08z. Confidence level is about 70-80% that we will not see a CIG, and rather see FEW/SCT015 from the stratus dissipating as it arrives thanks to dry air aloft.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.