textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning continues this morning with winds gusting as high as 55-65mph this morning. Winds taper off from west to east throughout the day with the warning expiring at 10am.

- Lingering light snow combined with winds could reduce visibility this morning with limited accumulation expected.

- Powerful winter storm moves in this weekend with significant snow accumulations creating dangerous to impossible travel Saturday evening into Sunday. Snow accumulations exceeding 12-18'' possible across a significant swath of Minnesota through northern Michigan. Winter Storm Watch expanded to the entire MPX CWA with Winter Storm Warnings almost certain and Blizzard Warnings possible (favoring southern MN).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Today...

06z Surface analysis shows the 990mb low directly over central Minnesota which has resulted in the significant winds across the area overnight and this morning in addition to some lingering precipitation. Winds have frequently gusted to 55-65mph all the way from western Minnesota through the Twin Cities which should continue into western Wisconsin this morning as winds slowly begin to diminish from west to east as the low pressure center rapidly progresses towards Lake Michigan by the early afternoon. Wrap around precipitation should be ending shortly after sunrise for all but western WI, with winds dwindling to less than 10mph with no more gusting later this evening. The High Wind Warning remains in effect through 7am for western Minnesota and 10am for the rest of the area, with gusts exceeding 45mph ending roughly by this time window. Temperatures are dropping to near freezing as the last of the light precipitation falls, however the gusty winds on top of lingering warm ground temperatures should keep icy conditions to a minimum especially on any treated surfaces this morning. The rest of the day and tonight will see brief high pressure return before our looming potent winter storm enters the region.

This Weekend...

The early onset of our potent winter storm will be developing over the Pacific NW later this evening, with a defined area of low pressure becoming organized over the mountains early Saturday as a longwave trough stretches across the northern CONUS. The upper level jet peaks at around 150-160kts and stretches from northern Idaho/Montana all the way through the Great Lakes and into the eastern Canadian islands, paving the way for the low to track across the southern edge of the jet riding the potent forcing from the upper level divergence region of the right entrance of the jet. Precipitation will begin in western Minnesota as early as sunrise on Saturday as the surface low develops and stretches a broad baroclinic zone across the area, and as the surface system develops the upper level trough begins to amplify and take on a negative tilt. Significant strengthening of the trough and surface low will take place from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning with already impressive snowfall rates expected by Saturday evening only continuing to intensify into Sunday morning with the peak intensity for the local area likely between midnight to noon on Sunday. Snowfall rates could range from 2-3''/hr during the peak intensity Sunday morning with dangerous to impossible travel expected with near zero visibility at times due to the sheer intensity of snowfall. After midday Sunday, the extremely amplified leading edge of the trough will be moving eastwards towards central WI to northern Michigan, with anticyclonic vorticity advection and surface high pressure rapidly following on the heels of the most intense precipitation to the point where snowfall will abruptly end Monday morning with lingering blowing snow possible due to increasing winds.

Guidance has continued to increase both the areal footprint of snowfall and also amounts as QPF continues to climb as guidance tries to resolve separate moisture sources from the Pac NW and Gulf, with overall QPF amounts exceeding 1.25-1.5'' for much of the area. There will be a gradient of precipitation and therefore snowfall with lower amounts in central Minnesota increasing for southern Minnesota, with the overall highest amounts generally expected from southern Minnesota through northern Wisconsin and into the UP. Snow ratios are going to be a bit tricky with this event, as we know locally that systems containing this much moisture often struggle to produce snow ratios exceeding 10 to 1, but even with this factored in there will be a large area from southern MN through western WI of amounts in excess of 12-18'' with 20''+ amounts possible for mainly eastern MN and western WI. Winds will be increasing especially towards the later part of Sunday which could slightly diminish snow amounts, however this seems most likely for southwest to southern Minnesota where the overall strongest gusts of around 30-35mph are expected. No matter which suite of guidance you try to look at the ensemble percentiles and probabilities are absurd with chances of 6+ inches (10:1 snow ratio) at 90-100% across most of the area and 12+ of 70-80% over eastern Minnesota into western WI.

Given the overall forecast trend of increasing QPF and snow amounts and the overall powerful dynamics of the approaching system, we have expanded the Winter Storm Watch to the rest of the MPX CWA with the only real headline question being if we will end up needing Blizzard Warnings for a period of time Sunday with Winter Storm Warnings all but a certainty at this point. The bottom line no matter what headline ends up being issued is that travel will be next to impossible on Sunday as snow continues to pile up, with our recommendation being to avoid travel within the region if at all possible during this window. Recovery efforts may be slow due to the amount of snow, which could bleed into Monday morning and beyond as temperatures will not reach above freezing again until Wednesday at the earliest. Please consider altering travel plans and staying off the roads on Sunday if at all possible and riding out the storm.

Next Week...

Quiet conditions return briefly for the rest of Monday and Tuesday with another quick hit of an inch or so of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by temperatures once again becoming more spring like by next weekend with a lack of further significant weather systems for now.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The main concern for the period will be wind gusts from 45-55kts across the entire area for the first 6-12 hours of the TAF, diminishing gradually after 12z with gusts absent after 00z. Dry air wrapping around the system overhead is resulting in lingering -SN at EAU but a pocket of VFR FEW/SCT mid level clouds across MSP/MKT/STC to start with. We expect to see MVFR CIGS roll in after this pocket of clearing with satellite showing an expansive field of stratus advancing towards the area from the west with the stronger winds. CIGS lift as winds weaken and the system overhead moves off after 00z.

KMSP...A period of LLWS is expected as soon as winds increase, with the system directly overhead at the start of the period and winds expected to rapidly increase within the first hour or two. By 12z, the LLWS will be decreasing as winds slowly begin to weaken. Once the pocket of clearing present at the start of the period fills in, MVFR CIGS are expected until 18-20z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...IFR/SN. Wind NE 15-20G25-40kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW to S 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for Blue Earth- Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood- Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca- Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for Benton-Douglas-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison- Todd. High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for Anoka- Benton-Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-Morrison- Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Steele-Washington-Wright. Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Chisago-Isanti- Kanabec-Mille Lacs. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott- Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca- Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-St. Croix. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce- Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Rusk.