textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat wave continues this week. This is a long duration threat due to daily highs in the 90s, heat indices approaching 100 degrees, and little relief overnight.

- Little in the way of precipitation chances through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

EXTREME HEAT WARNING...The going forecast remains remarkably consistent as the well-advertisted ~600 dm (near record per MPX's sounding climatology!) ridge builds over the Upper Midwest. With the core of the heat dome set to take residence over southern MN, it's no surprise that we're messaging dangerous heat over the coming days. As previously discussed, the combination of daily highs in the 90s, heat indices approaching the triple digits, and limited cooling overnight (lows in the upper 60s/mid 70s) prompted the extension of the Extreme Heat Warning through Thursday evening. No changes are planned for the Warning, however we did opt to introduce a Heat Advisory for Martin, Faribault, Freeborn, Waseca, & Steele counties with this forecast package. Heat indices are forecast to run just below criteria each afternoon across the southeast portion of the forecast area, however we felt the headline was necessary after running WBGT's, factoring in the prolonged nature of the heat, and collaborating with neighboring WFO ARX.

Large scale subsidence will limit any "active weather" through the end of the week. With this in mind, the daily heat scenario remains one of high confidence. Despite this stretch of heat falling short of daily records, the long duration nature of heat wave will require folks to practice Heat Safety: Stay hydrated, check on the elderly and those without A/C, remember to check the backseat, and limit time outdoors.

WEEKEND ONWARD...Heights begin to lower slightly heading into the weekend. While still quite warm, the latest NBM follows the upper-level trends by displaying highs in the Upper 80s/lower 90s Saturday & Sunday. A more pronounced shortwave is progged to dig southeast through the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. Global ensembles capture this progression with uptick in precipitation chances, albeit still a lower confidence portion of the forecast. Afternoon highs will run a bit cooler (mid 80s) behind this wave. Looking beyond the forecast period, global ensembles are in fairly good agreement with the establishment of a ~590s dm ridge centered on the Four Corners region, which results in the active storm track setting up across the northern CONUS. Ensemble guidance does feature a spattering of precipitation chances in the middle to end of next week, which supports this idea.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR through the 18z TAF period with clear skies and generally light southwesterly winds. Occasional diurnal gusts between 15-20kts remain possible through 00/01z.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SSW 10-15 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind WSW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle- Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Thursday for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca. WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.