textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple chances for rain through next week. Heaviest rainfall amounts expected across western and central MN Monday and Monday night.

- Following a cooldown early in the period, the forecast is trending warmer later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Widespread light rain has developed across west central MN with a few showers extending to the southeast into the Mankato and Albert Lea areas. Coverage of this rain is far exceeding model output, but a dry boundary layer should limit most rainfall totals to a tenth of an inch or less. Coverage will decrease this evening but occasional light rain is expected across the region, particularly across western MN.

An upper low over the Four Corners region this afternoon will advance to SD Monday afternoon. As it approaches, rain coverage will increase across the central Plains to southern and western MN by tonight. The surface low will track from eastern NE to central MN Monday into Tuesday. This is a shift to the east from yesterday. The best moisture transport will be confined to MN and is where the best chances for a soaking rain is forecast. Rainfall totals of around an inch are likely across western and central MN with amounts tapering off to the southeast. The system will exit to the north early Tuesday. Another disturbance will quickly follow Tuesday night through Wednesday night, bringing the next chance for showers. Amounts with this round will be lighter - a quarter inch or less.

A ridge will remain parked over the southeastern U.S. through the rest of the forecast period. Surface high pressure building into the northern Plains will lead to a drier forecast Thursday, but moisture will increase on the backside of the high Friday and into the weekend. Predictability beyond midweek remains low with considerable spread in the guidance.

Temperatures will be cool Monday, but then will warm back to the 60s and quite possibly 70s from Tuesday onward. Given the current forecast numbers, it appears MSP will finish this month as the 2nd warmest October on record.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR rain showers this evening and overnight. On Monday, could have some MVFR visbys/ceilings as heavier rain lifts up across the region and impacts KRWF and KSTC.

Otherwise expect light winds with mid level clouds today and rain showers lifting up from the southeast later this afternoon and evening.

KMSP... Main change was to add some MVFR conditions on Monday afternoon/evening when the heavier rain is expected to move across the region. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with mid level clouds and a few light rain showers today and tonight. Could have some IFR conditions Monday evening and overnight, but for now did not include a mention in the TAFs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Chc morning -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G20kts. WED...Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15kts. THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.