textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold tonight, then a midweek warm up with rain chances returning by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

- A warm, more humid, and stormy pattern takes shape this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Clouds have mostly cleared the region with some lingering across western WI under the cyclonic influence of the departing low pressure system. Surface high pressure will build southeast to the Upper Midwest tonight. A dry atmosphere, light winds, and clear skies should allow most locations to drop into the teens. Some single digits are possible in areas of lingering snowpack. The high will be centered over the Great Lakes by midday Tuesday when return flow will be well underway locally. Moisture transport will increase Tuesday evening across Iowa and southwestern MN thanks to a strengthening 50-60 kt LLJ. This should allow for shower development mid to late evening across eastern MN, growing in coverage overnight across WI. Thermal profiles are marginally supportive of snow initially, but milder low level profiles overnight will allow any mixed precip to turn to rain. Amounts will be light, perhaps a tenth of an inch in parts of WI.

Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will track east along the U.S./Canadian border Tuesday night, reaching the MN/ON border area Wednesday night. Low level flow will strengthen Wednesday ahead of the approaching cold front. Forecast soundings show good potential for 30-40 kt gusts Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will also be milder, in the 50s, across western MN before a late morning cold fropa. A few more hours of heating farther east could send eastern/southern MN and WI to reach the low to mid 60s before the front passes through early to mid afternoon. Moisture transport will be displaced east off the front, so most of the fropa could be dry until it reaches far eastern MN and WI. Another tenth or two of rain is possible across WI, with little, if any, across MN. Cooler and drier air follows for Thursday and Friday with the front stalled across the OH and mid MS Valley.

By this weekend, a large trough across the western U.S. and a building ridge across the central and eastern U.S will produce an active southwest flow pattern across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Broad warm air advection northward across the Plains will bring anomalously moist air in Saturday night and Sunday. Pwats between 200-300 percent above normal are possible. Showers and a few thunderstorms will break out Saturday night with an increasing 50 kt LLJ by late evening. Lapse rates will be poor which should limit any severe potential, but the showers will be efficient. Depending on the rate of dissipation of the showers Sunday morning, it may become quite warm ahead of the next round. Dew points in the low 60s and highs in the 70s are appearing more and more likely Sunday. 80s are possible, but would require sun to break out. Low pressure over the northern Plains Sunday will spark off the next round late Sunday into Monday. Better lapse rates this time may allow for more widespread thunderstorm activity. The low will weaken and pass to the east early next week. Temperatures Monday are of low confidence at this point with the surface front likely bisecting parts of the area around that time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Clear skies and light, variable winds overnight. Mid-high level clouds will start to stream in around midday ahead a low pressure system. As cloud cover increases, MVFR level cigs may develop as early as this evening for western and central MN sites. Winds will increase out of the SSE after sunrise, and become breezy by the afternoon.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected through day, with increasing cloud cover tonight. MVFR cigs are most likely to arrive around 05-07z, with a chance for light rain early in the morning. The latest trends suggest MSP stays dry to start the day Wednesday, so the prob30 may be removed as confidence increases for no precipitation.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chance IFR. Wind S to W 15-20G30kts. THU...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.