textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures persist through early next week, with highs in the 40s/50s through Tuesday before colder temperatures return mid-week.

- Saturday's high temperatures will have MSP, STC, and EAU all approaching 90+ year old records.

- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with the next chance at widespread precipitation being Tuesday night/Wednesday next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 614 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Temperatures today ended up several degrees warmer than the NBM in areas of residual snowpack, and in some cases nearly 10 degrees warmer. If not for the increased cloud cover during peak heating, it likely would have gotten even warmer. Some members of the NBM have been struggling with the impact the snow is having on daytime temperatures, which isn't that much. Today's highs were more in line with the 90th or 95th percentile, and there's no reason for this to change over the next couple days. In fact, 925 mb temps increase further both Saturday and Sunday, signaling a continued warming trend although the potential for increased cloud cover could limit full potential later Sunday. 925 mb temps rising to around +10C across southwest MN should allow them to rise into the low 60s, with widespread upper 40s to upper 50s elsewhere. It appears now all climate sites have a very good chance at breaking records Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

It's another beautiful, sunny day with very abnormal warmth for mid- February. Highs this afternoon are already warming into the 40s for much of the area. Southwestern MN continues to be the warmest with mid 50s expected. Mostly clear skies will allow for another night of good radiational cooling. Lower 30s are expected from western to southern MN, but farther northeast, where snowpack remains, lows will fall into the lower to mid 20s. Fog/freezing fog looks possible again late tonight into Saturday morning where the snowpack exists. The melting occurring during the day adding moisture to the boundary layer. We'll have to see how the fog evolves but visibilities could become heavily reduced, particularly over east-central MN. Saturday's highs will be similar to today's, albeit a few degrees warmer. Southwestern MN should reach the upper 50s while mid to upper 40s climb farther north into central MN and western WI as the snow melts. We have a chance at breaking a couple of daily high temperature records (detailed in the Climate section below). Most notably, MSP's record high of 50 set 144 years ago! By Sunday, the thermal ridging covering the western half of the CONUS maximizes in width. This won't have too large of an effect on our area temperatures for Sunday, though highs in southwestern MN will have a good shot at reaching 60. The thermal ridging will shift east into the central CONUS Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures look to remain warm Monday with a more evenly distributed north-south temperature gradient (all of the snow should be melted by this point). Highs in southern MN should reach the mid to upper 50s while central MN should range from the lower to mid 40s.

Uncertainty starts to really creep into the forecast Tuesday onward as a strong upper-level southwesterly jetstreak begins into infringe on the central CONUS. Above normal warmth does look to last into Tuesday but cloud cover and PoPs greatly increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as long-range guidance favors a more active pattern mid- week onward. The strong jetstreak should bring enhanced synoptic lift and multiple disturbances to the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Colder air should also continually be brought farther south from Canada throughout next week as the disturbances pass through. For now, we know that the forecast is likely going to get colder and wetter after Tuesday. A big cooldown does not appear likely but temperatures look cold enough for multiple types of precipitation, depending on where one is in relation to a disturbance. Examining the trend in the ensemble guidance is key right now and the trend says that we should anticipate wintry weather (possibly significant) somewhere over MN/WI during the latter half of next week. Where exactly the wintry precip will occur and how much is still too early to tell. But, evidenced by it still being mid-February, we are not through with winter just yet.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Scattered-broken high clouds will move out later this evening. Areas of fog should develop across parts of central MN and WI overnight. Otherwise, light winds will continue with mostly clear skies into Saturday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts becoming S late. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts becoming NE. TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA late. Wind E 5-10 kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Record high temperatures for February 13th through 17th can be found in the table below. Period of records began: MPX (1996), MSP (1872), STC (1894), EAU (1893).

FRI SAT SUN MON TUE 2/13 2/14 2/15 2/16 2/17

MPX 47 (2017) 46 (2002) 45 (1999) 54 (2011) 62 (2017) MSP 51 (1890) 50 (1882) 63 (1921) 60 (1981) 63 (2017) STC 47 (2011) 52 (1921) 55 (1921) 53 (1981) 59 (2017) EAU 47 (1921) 49 (1934) 58 (1921) 58 (1931) 55 (1981)

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.