textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected Sunday through Monday. Greatest chances for severe thunderstorms are Sunday evening & monday afternoon/evening.

- Damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazard with the strongest thunderstorms Sunday evening through Sunday night. Large hail & a few tornadoes are possible earlier in the evening across southwest Minnesota.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Anvil cirrus continues to clear off to the east overnight, meaning we'll see plenty of Sun to kick off what is shaping p to be a very pleasant Spring Saturday. Very dry humidity values are expected for one more day, but lighter winds today will mitigate any high fire weather concerns. Temperatures will top off around 80 degrees this afternoon.

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon & evening near the SD/NE/IA border region & likely become severe. Models have all come into consensus for the most part this evening with keeping these storms south of the IA/MN border today, so not expecting any weather concerns through this evening. There is a chance that some residual convection on the north side of the thunderstorm complex to our south could bring some showers & thunder to southern Minnesota, but this would have a low chance at becoming strong to severe. Models then become widely varied on what happens Sunday morning, with the legacy/AI global-scale deterministic models all favoring some sort of widespread showers & thunderstorms across much of the area, but high-resolution models remaining either dry or much more sparse in terms of precipitation. Wile this morning precipitation likely won't contain any severe weather or heavy rainfall, it will influence what kind of environment we can develop for potential severe thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon & night.

Sunday still looks to have the better environment for severe weather across our area, as very steep lapse rates potentially lead to CAPE values up to 2000-3000 J/kg during the afternoon/evening along with deep shear values increasing over 50 kts. However, the amount of instability later in the day will ultimately depend on what kind of precipitation (if any ) we see Sunday morning, & how long that cloud cover lingers into the afternoon. The general consensus idea from the high- resolution models is that a few discrete storms will form over the eastern Dakotas/central Plains during the afternoon, potentially remaining discrete as they move northeastwards into southwest Minnesota by early evening. These initial discrete storms could become supercellular given the wind shear values, meaning large hail (potentially 2-3" in diameter) & a few tornadoes are possible along with damaging wind gusts. These storms are then expected to merge into a line of storms, or multiple line segments, & continue eastwards through Minnesota & into Wisconsin through the late evening & overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat once this transition to a linear storm mode occurs, with the threat likely waning across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin as the storms begin to weaken towards midnight & later. We'll have to monitor the timing trends as high-resolution models still remain varied on when the initial storms initiate to our west & how long the event takes to unfold as storm move east into Wisconsin. In general, the earlier storms develop & move into Minnesota, the greater chance we'll have for severe weather with this event.

Confidence greatly decreases once we get past the storms Sunday night, but another environment favorable for severe weather could develop Monday afternoon & evening. However, how Monday unfolds will depend greatly on how the storms Sunday night unfold, & whether we see any secondary clusters of thunderstorms continue on into Monday morning. Generally, Monday's threat does look to be more favorable south of our area across Iowa & southern Wisconsin, but we'll have to monitor how the atmosphere evolves through the day on Monday & where any residual outflow boundaries may set up.

In addition to the chances for severe weather Sunday-Monday, the thunderstorms will also bring our first chance at a soaking rainfall for much of the area this month. Sunday night's storms have the best chance at producing a widespread soaking rainfall, with HREF/REFS probability-matched precipitation indicating amounts of 1-2" possible, although locally higher amounts are certainly possible. Another round of soaking rain is possible Sunday depending on where those storms end up. We do look to dry out & return to seasonably cool temepratures once we get past our stretch of active weather through Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 659 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR condition today. Mostly clear skies will transition to partly cloudy later this morning. Light winds will increase out of the NW between 10-15kts with gusts 18-22kts, especially for AXN and STC. All other sites, can still anticipate winds to increase today although gusts are anticipated to remain below 18kts. Widespread rain will build in from the SW late tonight and move NE. Impacts from precip will be included in the next routine issuance, however did give MKT a prob30 for potentially early arrival of rain. KMSP...Did tack on a prob30 for MVFR -SHRA for early Sunday morning. However better coverage for rain and storms is expected Sunday evening and will be introduced next routine issuance.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind ESE 10-15G30kts. MON...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind SSW 10-15G20kts. TUE...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.