textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of potential frost tonight with warmer temepratures on the horizon.

- Some light rain is possible along a passing cold front late Friday into early Saturday for central Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

- Better chance for more widespread rainfall arrives late Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Temperatures are running about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, with some Cu popping across central Minnesota. Did bump temperatures up a few degrees and dewpoints down a couple degrees to account for the better mixing as advertised in model soundings both today and tomorrow. This will allow RH values to fall to 25 to 20 percent, particularly for western Minnesota. However, fairly light winds are keeping critical fire weather concerns at bay. Another round of near freezing temperatures are expected tonight, but increasing cloud cover moving in from the Dakotas will help keep temperatures in check across western and southern Minnesota. While it's borderline, did decide to go ahead with another Frost Advisory for western Wisconsin into far east central Minnesota. We should get a break from the frost concerns for at least a day or two, with colder overnight lows briefly returning Sunday and Monday morning.

Temperatures tomorrow should reach the upper 60s to low 70s as we get a break from what has felt like constant cold air advection. As mentioned above, RH values are expected to fall to around 25 percent. Winds will be a little stronger tomorrow, which could lead to elevated fire weather concerns. An approaching cold front will bring isolated shower chances during the evening to west central Minnesota, but the bulk of any rain chances will hold off until after midnight into early Saturday morning. The best chance for precip will be across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but even then, QPF amounts are only a few hundredths at best. Following the FROPA, highs for the weekend will be back in the 50s and 60s with breezy northwest winds.

As we head into early next week, it will finally start feeling more May-like with a warming trend expected to take hold through the week. The 500mb low that seems to have been stuck over Hudson Bay finally begins to drift eastward late Sunday. Another trough will swing through early Tuesday, bringing another brief cool down and some shower chances to the region. Once that system moves through, we'll see temperatures continue to climb with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s possible by this time next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Another quiet weather period is expected over the next 30 hours. Winds tonight will go light and variable again. Skies will start out clear, but we will start to see mid-level clouds move in overnight. Main issue for Friday is the deep mixing we will have, the super deep mixing. The most conservative model, the NAM, shows the boundary layer building up to 8k feet, but the GFS/RAP have boundary layer depth potentially exceeding 10k feet. This deep mixing means gusty winds come back again and depending on how effectively we mix winds down, we could see some gusts around 30 kts in MN.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...Chc AM -SHRA/MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Chisago-Isanti. WI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.