textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain changes over to snow this evening. Accumulations up to 3-4" expected across western Wisconsin, 1-2" elsewhere.

- Another round of snow arrives late Thursday into Friday morning, mainly north of Interstate 94 with the heaviest amounts across western Wisconsin.

- Very gusty winds develop late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Gusts over 50 mph are likely across western Minnesota, with 40-50 mph expected elsewhere.

- Snow, potentially heavy, still looks likely this weekend. Low confidence still on where the heaviest snow may fall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Dry air has prevented any precipitation from reaching the ground for most of the afternoon, but we're starting to see more reports of light snow across central Minnesota & drizzle/light rain farther south. We'll see the precipitation reaching the surface become more widespread through the rest of the afternoon & evening across central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, & then through the night across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Accumulations of 1-2" are expected across most of the area overnight through when the snow ends tomorrow morning, although higher amounts of 3-4" are likely along & north of Interstate 94 across western Wisconsin where a WInter Weather Advisory is in effect. An area to watch through this evening is with the ongoing band of light snow over central Minnesota, it is expected to gradually move northwards, but we may end up seeing Advisory-level snowfall amounts of 3+ inches into central & west-central Minnesota if it remains relatively stationary this afternoon & evening. The snow ends from west to east through the early morning, & should only result in a snowy & messy morning commute across western Wisconsin. Temperatures remain cool Wednesday after the snow ends with highs around 40.

A potent system arrives late Thursday through Friday with a pronounced shortwave trough progressing along the US/Canada border & a surface low tracking from the Dakotas to the Great lakes quickly deepening below 990 mb as it passes over our area. A band of accumulating snow is expected on the north side of this system, while rain falls to the south of its track. It's just a matter of the track of the surface low with determining where we could see another 2-4" of snow or more Thursday night into Friday. The majority of legacy deterministic guidance keeps the snow off to our north across northern Minnesota & Wisconsin, but it must be noted that the AIFS deterministic & ensemble solutions bring accumulating snow farther south to the Interstate 94 corridor of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin, while also suggesting a signal for more appreciable snowfall amounts of 3+ inches across western Wisconsin.

In addition to the accumulating snow potential, very gusty winds are expected late Thursday night through Friday as the low continues to deepen even further east of the region over the Great Lakes. Low-resolution ensemble guidance shows impressive 60+ percent probabilities for wind gusts of at least 50 mph across western Minnesota, while a few of the long-range high resolution models suggest we could see a max gust potential over 60 mph across western Minnesota. High Wind Warnings are very likely across the Dakotas & at least into western Minnesota late Thursday night through FRiday afternoon, while max wind gusts more in the 40-50 mph range farther east into Wisconsin will likely warrant a Wind Advisory. We will have to see where the heaviest snow ends up across Minnesota & Wisconsin, and how it matches up with the wind gusts, because Winter Storm headline for blowing snow may be warranted should parts of Wisconsin see several inches of snow & wind gusts over 40 mph.

Finally, we continue to monitor another large storm system expected to impact the Upper Midwest this weekend, mainly bringing snow to portions of our area Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Thew surface low from this system will pass of to our south, but a band of appreciable snowfall is expected to the north of the low track - somewhere across the Upper Midwest. A notable spread in the guidance still exists, even among the various ensembles, placing this heaviest band of snow anywhere from northern Minnesota to the Minnesota-Iowa border. At this range & with this much uncertainty, it's hard to say much in terms in the details, but we can take note of the AIGFS & AIFS ensembles generally favoring southern Minnesota for the placement of the highest snow chances across our area. guidance also remains spread on the evolution of the low, whether it is a weaker more transient system that only results in a few inches of snow, or a slower & stronger more developed low that could have the potential for very heavy snowfall amounts. Too early to say much at this point, other than snow is expected this weekend, & to monitor the forecast for the latest updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A band of snow has been ongoing early this evening across central Minnesota. Impressive snowfall rates have brought visibilities down to 1/2SM at KSTC over the past few hours. Further south, rain is still mixing in with the snow as temperatures hover around freezing. This will become all snow over the next 2-3 hours as temperatures fall. This band of precip is expected to slowly pivot to the southeast overnight, with MVFR/IFR conditions through much of the forecast period. Winds will be borderline gusty generally out of the north at 15-20kts. VFR cigs should return by late morning and remain in place through tomorrow evening.

KMSP...Snow has already started flying at MSP this evening and will continue overnight. The period for heaviest snow looks to occur sometime between 05z and 08z, but rates should remain below 0.5"/hr. Intermittent gusts of 20-25kts out of the northeast will continue before becoming north/northwest.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR ceilings likely. Chc PM -RASN. Wind S 10-15G20 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SAT...MVFR ceilings likely. Chc day -RASN, likely night -SN. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NE.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for Barron- Polk-Rusk. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-St. Croix.