textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very mild today through Tuesday, with highs in the 40s/50s.

- Widespread precip arrives late Tuesday into Thursday. For our area, that generally means rain south, with better chances for a wintry mix/snow across central MN.

- Turning colder late week with additional chances for accumulating snow Thursday night/Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A (mostly) quiet night for the Upper Midwest, but for those in northern Mille Lacs and Kanabec county... Your ears did not deceive you! A thunderstorm developed overhead and we observed multiple lightning strikes via the GOES GLM. That wasn't on my bingo card for February 16th in central Minnesota but here we are. Current temperatures as of 2 AM remain 15+ degrees above our normal expected high temperature for 2/16 (28F at MSP). Temperatures will cool into the mid 30s by daybreak as winds shift to the west-northwest before warming back into the upper 40s and 50s this afternoon. Our stretch of well above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday before cooler temperatures arrive for the second half of the week.

The next chance of precipitation will arrive Tuesday evening. Guidance continues to depict a potent system impacting the northern CONUS. The warm & wet northern solution appears strongly favored at this point as the surface and mid-level low move out of NoDak and trek across central MN Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe. This track puts areas closer to the Canadian border in line to see a large amount of QPF as PWATs of 300% of normal feed into an impressive deformation band that is expected to develop north of the low Tuesday night. This favors heavy precipitation across northern Minnesota - likely in the form of snow - while closer to home will see our temperatures in the 50s ahead of this frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon. Both hires & global models support the potential of a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE ahead of the front. This is plenty of instability for mid-February and will support a few rumbles of thunder with the rain showers along the front Tuesday evening. This will likely be the bulk of our QPF (0.10" to 0.25") as the dry slot moves over the southern half of MN Tuesday night & Wednesday. This will keep most of the area dry outside of our northern most tier in C MN. A transition from rain to snow will occur across north-central MN as colder air filters in as the mid level low closes off. There remains uncertainty with how far north the low will end up on Wednesday. AI guidance remains most optimistic for snow chances across W & C MN in the wrap around while deterministic guidance keeps the light snow in the FGF/DLH forecast areas in N MN. The ECMWF AIFS solution is particularly interesting as it resembles a similar type system from January of 2023 where the mid/upper level low closes off and spins over the area for 24-48 hours. This led to additional light snow accumulation behind the initial heavy precipitation. The AIFS places 1-3" across W & C MN while a few flakes fall in the Twin Cities metro Wednesday/Thursday. Right now, the best chance for measurable snowfall remains along & north of the line from Alexandria to Pine City, where 1 to 3" appear possible. I wouldn't rule out a dusting Wednesday night/Thursday morning in the Twin Cities. Temperatures will trend closer to normal values with highs in the 30s and 20s by the weekend.

Our attention turns to the later half of the week, specifically Thursday night/Friday morning. Guidance is in better agreement than 24 hours ago, but meaningful uncertainty remains with the exact track of the mid level trough. What is known is that a low pressure system will move from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday night. The 500mb trough becomes negatively tilted and interacts with the closed off trough from the earlier week system that is stalled over the International Border in N MN. Downstream ridging will prevent it's departure and these two features will play a significant role in determining what evolution occurs. The GFS remains south with a weaker, open wave at 500mb while the ECMWF is further north and brings accumulating snow to the southern 1/3 of MN and into western WI Thurs night/Friday morning. While the 00z ICON resembles yesterday's 00z ECMWF with a stronger low pressure that tracks from Des Moines to north-central WI. This places the entire forecast area in a favorable position for accumulating snow. This solution isn't off the table - but I suspect reality to be closer to the ECMWF/EPS solution with a glancing blow for the Twin Cities and heavier precip over S/SE MN & W WI. There should be continued uncertainty until we see exactly what the Tuesday/Wednesday system does and how strong the downstream ridge becomes in response. For now, there is the potential of some light snow Thursday night into Friday AM. Cooler temperatures continue into the weekend before another warm up arrives next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Quiet weather is expected this period with high pressure sliding across the area. Winds will briefly go northwest behind the cold front this morning, with the winds veering from the northwest over to the east this afternoon. Antecedent dry airmass will keep cigs VFR this period, with lower cigs and -SHRA chances showing up Tuesday afternoon.

KMSP...We could see MVFR cigs move in late Tuesday morning, but right now MVFR cig chances look better after this period Tuesday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA likely late with slgt chc TS. Wind E 10-15G25 kts. WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RASN. Wind W 10-20 kts. THU...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind N 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.