textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for thunderstorms Saturday & Sunday morning across western Minnesota.

- More widespread rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday, though areas across northern MN are favored for heaviest amounts.

- More seasonable airmass arrives for the rest of the week after Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

If you look out your window to the west and squint hard enough, you may be able to see the broad cluster of storms ongoing early this morning across the Dakotas. These storms are developing within an area of WAA along the eastern edge of the nocturnal LLJ. As the morning progresses, expect the storms to gradually move east into parts of western MN, though they may be waning as the LLJ weakens by mid morning. A couple thousand Joules of MLCAPE and effective wind shear of about 35 kts could support some organization of storms, and result in isolated cases of severe wind or hail, particularly across southwest MN.

Overall heat impacts will be lower today with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints largely in the 60s. Southwest MN may still feel muggy with 70 degree dewpoints lingering into today.

This pattern remains the same for the rest of the holiday weekend, with the ridge aloft only just starting to break down by Monday. Our best chance for more widespread precip will be tied to the shortwave that moves through Monday into Tuesday, though northern Minnesota remains favored for the best forcing and greatest rainfall potential. The SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather over western MN for the next three days while this hot and stormy pattern holds.

The rest of the week will feature increased NW/W flow, ushering in a more seasonable airmass for early September.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 651 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

IFR-or-worse conditions have enveloped all TAF sites at initialization, starting with low stratus moving in from the east followed by fog for much of central-southeastern MN. All sites will deal with these conditions lasting potentially into late morning. Ceilings are starting out in between 200-500ft, with a slow rise through the morning hours but the improvement through IFR to MVFR may even be later than currently advertised. By late morning and continuing into the evening hours, the low level moisture will be scoured out and VFR conditions will prevail. However, indications are that organized convection will develop in the eastern Dakotas during the early morning hours Sunday and press eastward across central-southern MN through sunrise, resulting in a return to at least MVFR conditions with showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Have left out CB/TS mention at this point due to high uncertainty but this bears watching how models evolve the trends for later TAFs. Winds will remain generally easterly throughout this duration with speeds at or under 10kts.

KMSP...LIFR conditions have been achieved at MSP this morning, even with some -DZ being reported along with visibility down to 1sm. These conditions will remain in place through at least the next few hours, followed by improvement to VFR by early afternoon. Conditions look to drop approaching sunrise Sunday morning, but too much uncertainty to mention CB/TS at this point along with having visibility under 5sm.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. TUE...SHRA/MVFR likely with chc TSRA, mainly in the morning. Clearing late. Wind S 10-15kts becoming W. WED...VFR. W 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Goodhue- Rice-Steele. WI...None.