textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold Weather Advisory issued for bitterly cold airmass this weekend. Wind chills of -25 to -35F below zero Friday night through Sunday across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- Light snow showers possible for Friday morning's commute. Accumulations less than 1" expected.

- A big warm-up looks possible for the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Overall its been a quiet cloudy day. Surface reflectivity looking much more ominous than whats occurring. Using this morning's 12z balloon sounding, there looks to be a notable dry layer between 850- 700mb. Additionally, ob sites and MnDOT road cameras not showing any inclination of light falling snow, thus chalking up any radar returns as a potential for flurries only. All of the more prevalent snowfall today continues to be located well southwest of the MN River Valley where an embedded mid- level wave skirts western Minnesota for the rest of today. Total snow accumulations with this wave continue to range between 1-3 inches near the Buffalo Ridge. As for the rest of us north and east including western WI, will just see overcast skies, perhaps a few flurries, and temperatures in the teens.

Tonight into early tomorrow morning, an upper-level trough with a surface cold front makes its way southeastward from Manitoba and crosses into the arrowhead of MN. Ahead of this front, another shot of light snow showers is possible just in time for the morning commute thanks to broad forcing in place. Snow accumulations are expected to be considered cosmetic and less than an inch overall however could make for a few slippery spots on untreated surfaces. Weak surface winds become breezy through the course of Friday as this front advects in much colder air. Our forecasted highs for Friday (in the teens) will be met early as the cold front progresses through afternoon into the evening from NW to SE.

By Friday night into the weekend, a strong 1045mb surface high becomes dominant over the northern plains. So although we will see a break from any new snow, it gets very cold. Temps will continue to fall Friday night down to -10 to -15 below zero north and east of I-94 to -5 to -10 south and west. More notably wind chills will be even colder and range from -25 to -30 degrees as we enter early Saturday. Some sunshine does make its return for Saturday afternoon however, forecast highs struggle to get above 0 degrees. Saturday night our cold snap bottoms out with wind chills ranging from -25 to -35 degrees below zero. Given the duration and spatial coverage of this arctic airmass, Cold Weather Advisories were issued across counties north and east of the MN River Valley, (including western Wisconsin) for Saturday, and then all counties for Sunday. With this being our first arctic blast of the season, we wanted to provide the reminder that wind chill headlines have been replaced by cold weather and extreme cold headlines. This was to help simplify the message, "cold is cold." So this might be a good weekend to enjoy the hot cocoa and and cozy blanket to keep warm.

Looking ahead into next week, forecast guidance continues to feature thermal ridging building and making its way east Monday into Tuesday. H850 temp anomalies showing that much of the Contiguous U.S. would being anywhere from 5 to 15C warmer. This surge of warmer air will aid bringing our forecast highs back to near or well-above normal which this time of the year is in the upper 20s and lows in the teens. As for precipitation, much of the week looks tranquil except for a slight potential for precip Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Generally VFR conditions at initialization will hold through the early morning hours. MVFR ceilings will settle in prior to daybreak ahead of an incoming cold front. This front will be the focus for morning to early afternoon light snow across central MN into western WI. MVFR ceilings will still prevail although IFR ceilings/visibilities are likely under the heavier bursts/bands of snow. Conditions will then gradually improve through the MVFR range Friday afternoon-evening, potentially to VFR by late Friday evening. Winds will turn NW with the frontal passage with speeds becoming breezy/gusty.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the overnight hours and into the morning push, then will look for MVFR ceilings to return shortly after sunrise. Best timing of the band of snow likely to impact MSP looks to be in the 12z-16z timeframe, potentially as early as 11z and potentially as late as 17z. IFR conditions likely with the passage of this swath of snow, with accumulations up to a half inch possible. Conditions will then gradually improve through the rest of the day. Winds will turn NW with the passage of the front responsible for the snow, with directions nearly straight down the 30s with speeds increasing to near 15G25kts in the afternoon hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind S early, bcmg WNW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 10 AM CST Sunday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott- Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca- Washington-Wright. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday for Brown-Faribault-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan- Yellow Medicine. WI...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 10 AM CST Sunday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce- Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.