textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures expected through next weekend, with growing potential for mid-week snow.

- Warmest day will be Monday, with 50s possible for locations in southwestern MN.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Today...A blanket of low-level stratus has overspread much of Minnesota and Wisconsin early this morning. The only area of clear skies is over southwest Minnesota, allowing for more effective radiational cooling. Otherwise lows are a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer this morning compared to yesterday. This will give us a head start for the day, allowing highs to climb near or above freezing at most locations. The extent to which we warm will be at least partially dependent on how quickly, if at all, the stratus can scatter out. Latest blend of hi-res guidance favors a mid-afternoon timeframe for clearing skies though there is some spread with the HRRR/RAP having clouds clear by noon, whereas the NAM represents the opposite end with clouds around through the evening. This is likely too pessimistic, and we expect at least some clearing to occur throughout the day.

Monday through Saturday...Mild and mostly dry conditions continue into next weekend. Our 500mb height anomalies show a slowly propagating shortwave along the Canada/US border. This will flatten the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge, limiting temperatures from warming even more than they will and developing a weak Clipper that'll track across northern MN on Monday. There remains ensemble and deterministic support for a band of light QPF (only a few hundredths at most) across central MN Monday afternoon/evening. The exact location of the band varies, likely only falling over a 1 to 2 county width path where the strongest fgen occurs. The combination of light QPF and low confidence has capped PoPs around 10 to 20 percent for locations north of I-94 in central MN. Forecast soundings support a transition from rain to snow as the thermal profile cools down just after the onset of any precipitation.

Surface high pressure settles in behind this wave, resulting in a day or two of mostly clear skies and lighter winds. The next chance for more widespread precip comes Thursday, with mainly snow expected despite warmer surface temps. Forcing for this precip comes ahead of a mid-level shortwave ejecting down from Canada along the northwest flow. Ensemble guidance is notably varied, with Canadian members largely dry while the Euro and American suites range from a couple hundredths of QPF to several tenths. Latent NBM is largely unchanged, with 30 to 40 percent PoPs and 0.05 to 0.15 inches of QPF producing around an inch or less of snow for the southern third of MN. Additional chances for light precip continue through the weekend, though impact looks low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Mid-level cloud decks expected throughout, with ceilings over central- southeastern MN into western WI to persist through at least midday and likely into the evening hours. Partial clearing then expected overnight through Monday morning. Generally SE winds expected throughout, with speeds into the 10-13kt range from late morning through this afternoon then settling back down to under 10kts tonight.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming NE. THU...MVFR ceilings likely. Chance -SHSN. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.