textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy/gusty southerly winds today will turn westerly tonight and northwest tomorrow before diminishing. The strongest gusts of 30- 40mph will occur across southwestern and far southern MN.

- Saturday weather system to bring the first taste of winter weather across portions of the region. Slushy snow accumulations are possible across southern MN.

- Cold temperatures Saturday-Monday with and behind this system, then temperatures quickly rebound to above normal levels next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a well-organized surface low pressure center over eastern SD, with a leading warm front over southern MN into northern IA, and its trailing cold front southward over the Central Plains. A secondary cold front lingers over southern Canada with a developing low center over southern Saskatchewan. Each of these lows is in conjunction with an upper level shortwave trough, the southern low with a north- south trough over the Northern-Central Plains and the northern low with a trough rotating around the western periphery of a deep H5 low over Hudson Bay. Looking upstream, a sharp ridge axis is set up over the Rockies but immediately on its heels is a deep large low moving onshore southern British Columbia. These western CONUS features will be at play for the well-advertised slushy snow for southern MN on Saturday.

Before we get there, deep mixing and compacted pressure gradients across the area today through Friday with the passage of the southern low followed by the passage of the northern cold front will result in fairly consistent breezy/gusty winds through Friday afternoon. Although the directions will be shifting from S today to W tonight and NW tomorrow, deep mixing during the daytime hours along with the tightened gradients will help maintain sustained speeds in the 15-25mph range with gusts in the 30-40mph range. Highest speeds will be recorded in western and southern portions of the WFO MPX coverage area. In addition, weak frontal lifting may be able to squeeze out some very light rain diurnal rain showers today over western-central MN and tomorrow over far eastern MN into western WI. However, with model soundings indicating a deep and persistent dry layer up to about H7 (~10kft), getting those radar echoes to be realized at the surface as precipitation will be hard to come by.

By Friday night, the secondary cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi River Valley while the upper level ridge collapses as it moves off the Rockies and into the Plains. Still, solid N to NW flow aloft will be a pathway to allow effective CAA into the Upper Midwest starting Friday night, bringing an end to our prolonged period of above normal temperatures our region as been experiencing since the start of November.

By daybreak Saturday morning, a compact lobe shortwave, emanating from the large low moving onshore western NOAM, will shift into the Northern Plains while its surface reflection low pressure center slides southeast in advance of the feature aloft. Copious Pacific moisture will be dragged into the Upper Midwest with these features, working within a temperature regime already well below normal to set the stage for wintry precipitation this Saturday. Model ensembles continue to keep the main precipitation bands over far southwestern and far southern MN, and this idea has been fairly steady the past 2- 3 days, thus there is little in the way at this point to think that the most impactful snow will be much farther north than I-90 within our coverage area. Precipitation will likely be ongoing early Saturday over the Dakotas with the low coming off MT/WY, but a quickly-developing low over KS/NE will take over for this system, being slingshot ENE into the Ohio Valley midday Saturday through Sunday morning. This timing will limit the duration of any snowfall to mainly during the day Saturday, which may also make the precipitation susceptible to mixing with rain (no sleet/FZRA is expected due to the deep moisture profile all remaining below zero and highs climbing into the 35-38 degree range where much of the precip will be developing). The relative max of snowfall looks to occur along and south of a line from Madison MN to Mankato MN to Albert Lea MN, with up to around a slushy 1" of accumulation, mainly on grassy areas and possibly sidewalks. The precipitation overall will wind down from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. The next potential concern will come Saturday night through Sunday morning as low temperatures are expected to drop to the upper teens to lower 20s, which may allow the rain and wet snow to freeze over on surfaces. And as was alluded to in the previous discussion, those in the 7-county TC Metro looking for snow will not be impressed, with only maybe southern Carver, Scott and Dakota counties having any potential for falling snow, little as it may be.

From Sunday through the middle of next week, the residual cold air will remain in place due to a highly amplified longwave pattern over the CONUS. A large ridge will take shape over the western CONUS to the Rockies, while the Hudson Bay low moves off the water and drives southward into the Great Lakes into an open trough extending into the Gulf. This will keep NNW flow aloft in place through Monday while a modified central-Canadian cold air high pressure airmass slides southward. Highs on Sunday will barely reach the freezing mark while lows Sunday morning and Monday morning plunge to the teens. Temperature recovery starts early Tuesday morning as the eastern CONUS trough shifts to the eastern seaboard and the western ridge expands into the central CONUS, cutting off the colder Canadian air and allowing warmer southwest CONUS air well northward. Thus, highs on Tuesday will surge to the mid 40s to lower 50s, with those highs remaining in place through midweek. In addition, no precipitation signals are evident beyond the Saturday precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 507 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Gusts will subside near TAF issuance. Southerly winds will turn southwesterly then westerly behind a cold front overnight. The final wind shift will be to the northwest after daybreak. Mid/high level clouds through tonight, then MVFR cigs likely arriving Friday morning behind the cold front. MVFR cigs likely remain through the end of the TAF. Some weather models support an isolated shower or two developing within the CAA regime tomorrow, but the probability the showers materialize and impact a terminal is very low.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, chc MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NE to NW 5-15kts SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts. MON...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.