textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat wave continues this week. This is a long duration threat due to daily highs in the 90s, heat indices approaching 100 degrees, and little relief overnight.

- No precipitation expected until Friday at the earliest, and mainly for western Wisconsin with low chances at that.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Very much a similar forecast as the past couple days with a highly amplified ridge of high pressure aloft (reaching 601dam per the 14/00z MPX RAOB last evening) and residual surface high pressure of nearly 1024mb from the mid-upper Mississippi River Valley extending eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states. There is a weak surface front analyzed from the Dakotas eastward across far northern MN into the Great Lakes, but that front will remain to the north of the WFO MPX through Friday, thus the excessive heat/humidity will persist through the end of the workweek. The combination of highs in the 90s with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s will promote daytime heat index values well into the 90s to lower 100s. Add in limited cooling during the overnight periods (generally upper 60s to mid 70s) through Thursday and possibly into Friday will mean the continuation of the Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in place for our counties. There is some concern that the temperatures and humidity levels for Friday will be similar to that of days prior to, thus there is the possibility that the headlines may need to be extended an additional day. We will monitor the model trends and make that determination in the next 24-48 hours. However, regardless of if there is a headline out for a given county or what type, the hazards of and precautions for excessive heat need to be recognized and accounted for. As noted in the previous discussion, the long duration nature of this ongoing heat wave will require folks to practice Heat Safety: Stay hydrated, check on the elderly and those without A/C, remember to check the backseat, and limit time outdoors. The heat ridge will keep any chance for precipitation well away from the area, thus along with the heat will come a gradual exacerbation of drought conditions

Going into the weekend, The aforementioned northern front looks to drop south into IA/IL, bringing a break from the excessive heat and allowing high temperatures to fall back to the mid- upper 80s for early next week and possibly continuing to drop into the middle of next week. The heat dome will also retrograde westward to the central CONUS and flatten out, allowing weak shortwaves to ride atop the diminished ridge and possibly interact with what is left of the decaying front. Small chances for precipitation over the weekend into next week remain in the forecast, albeit mainly for western WI. Longer-range models do indicate the potential for additional rain chances extending more into the MN portion of our coverage area for the latter portion of next week, but no significant systems are apparent anytime soon nor a large change in the air mass over our region. The only possibly silver lining here for the Upper Midwest is that the CPC outlook for the 8-14 day period (July 21-27) advertises Near Normal temperatures while the Week 3-4 period (July 25-August 7) advertises Below Normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR with mainly southwesterly winds through the period. EAU and RNH could see a bit more of a westerly component to its wind direction after 14z. Wind speeds for all sites will generally be 10kts or less, but an occasional gust of around 15-20kts is not out of the question this afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SSW 10-15 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind WSW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle- Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT Thursday for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca. WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.