textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A long duration winter storm begins this evening across southwestern Minnesota. Snow will spread over southern-eastern Minnesota through western Wisconsin tonight through Saturday evening. Multiple inches of snow are likely, especially across southern Minnesota.

- A Winter Storm warning has been expanded northward in Minnesota to include Redwood County over to Goodhue County. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of western Wisconsin late Friday night through Saturday.

- Temperatures turn colder behind this early weekend system, with highs in the teens and lows a few degrees on either side of zero Sunday and Monday. Wind chills will drop below zero both mornings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

In the very near term, all is quiet early this morning. An area of low stratus covering portions of northern and eastern Minnesota through western Wisconsin has helped keep temperatures in the lower 20s versus the clear slot over much of western and southern Minnesota, where temps currently are in the teens to single digits. A few isolated pockets of flurries are occurring this morning mainly east of the I-35 corridor. These pockets of snowfall are not expected to produce anything more than a trace.

Our eyes remain focused on the evolution of our next system arriving today. An upper-level trough located over the Intermountain West will continue to deepen as it moves ESE'ward over the course of today. As this occurs, a surface low develops just east of the Rockies which will aid in providing warm advection up through the Northern Plains. Frontogenesis occurs first over the Dakotas this afternoon producing light snowfall which then moves into southwestern Minnesota later this evening. By early Saturday, the upper-level trough digs over Iowa and then ejects the aforementioned surface low into Central Plains. Snowfall coverage will become widespread through the course of the day on Saturday across southern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this system will be driven by an inverted trough which will allow for isentropic upglide to occur during much of Saturday. What this means is that snowfall duration is expected to persist through much of Saturday. Cold dry air moves in quickly after the low passes to our south. Snow coverage will decrease Saturday evening across western Minnesota followed by eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday night. After blending in latest guidance, snowfall totals have increased farther north into Minnesota and Wisconsin. Heaviest snowfall totals remain fixed across southern Minnesota where 7-10" could accumulate Saturday. Farther north is where upgrades in headlines were needed. Given the uptick in forecasted snow totals, Redwood County over to Goodhue County were upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded slightly to now include Swift County in Minnesota and St. Croix County over to Chippewa County in Wisconsin then south. Areas within the advised areas can expected 3 to 6 inches of snow with a sharp gradient of 2 to 4 inches along the northern periphery of the advisory area. Even the Twin Cities metro will get in on the appreciable north- to-south gradient of snowfall, with the northern metro closer to the 3-4" amounts while the southern metro will likely receive closer to the 5-6" amounts.

Given the track of this low pressure system being well south of our immediate area, Canadian high pressure may at times undercut some of the snow development at times. Snowfall rates for this event are expected to be on the lighter side thanks to the lack of any nearby mesoscale feature to force heavier rates. Winds continue to appear below 20 mph mitigating concerns for blowing snow potential. After this system passes, temperatures will remain cold for the first half of the week with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits to a few degrees below zero. Wind chills these mornings will likely fall near or below zero. A short-lived warmup occurs Wednesday back into the 20s however a dry cold front kicks us back into the teens Thursday. A clipper moves through the northern plains late next week which provides our next potential of precip.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Mid-level stratus continues to linger from northern MN into western WI this morning, mainly over the WI TAF sites, while the MN TAF sites start out as VFR (except AXN which, due to light winds, is experiencing intermittent stratus under 1kft thru sunrise). Post-sunrise, AXN will likely deal with MVFR ceilings while the remaining TAF sites will run as VFR through this afternoon. The incoming winter storm system for tonight will produce snowfall into southwestern MN this evening then gradually pushing eastward overnight through Saturday, with conditions expected to steadily deteriorate mainly during the overnight hours through midday Saturday. Ceilings will drop to MVFR with the onset of light VFR snow, then as snow becomes more steady, visibilities will also drop into MVFR levels overnight then to IFR levels after daybreak on Saturday, where visibilities are then expected to remain through the day. IFR ceilings are not expected at this time, but ceilings may well drop below 2kft. Winds are not expected to contribute to the degraded visibilities with the falling snow, as light NW winds this morning will drop to near calm later today through this evening, then lightly pick up from the E and NE overnight through tomorrow morning with speeds under 10kts through midday Saturday.

KMSP...VFR through the daylight hours today, then conditions deteriorate tonight with the onset of steady snowfall. Have began the prevailing snow at 07z but there may be some wiggle room as early as 05z with intermittent snow showers but once the sustained snowfall begins, then it is expected to continue through the duration of this TAF set. Ceilings/visibility to remain within MVFR levels overnight then visibility is expected to drop to IFR post-sunrise and remain as such through the day. This snow is expected to be a powdery-type snow with mainly light intensity, possibly moderate at times Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST Saturday night for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Renville-Sibley- Swift-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST Saturday night for Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi- McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-Scott-Washington-Wright. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST Saturday night for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday for Goodhue. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.