textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of light snow late this morning through Friday. Accumulations up to 3-4" across western Wisconsin.

- Gusty winds accompany the light snow on Friday & will cause low visibility from blowing snow, especially in open areas. Hazardous travel is expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 842 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Main focus with the morning update was to make a noted cut in PoPs across eastern MN/western WI later this morning and into the afternoon following trends in the short term guidance. The 00z MPX RAOB sampled very dry air through the column, which will play a role in a decreasing to the snowfall footprint with the initial warm advective band of precipitation. Still, where saturation occurs, quick light accumulations and visibility reductions are possible. This is most likely the case across western WI. In addition, the drier air is working to limit low- level saturation, so concerns with freezing drizzle during the daytime period are decreasing.

On the flip side, guidance is coming into better agreement with a punch of higher snowfall rates this evening as an area of vorticity advection dives southeast roughly along I-94. We have raised PoPs this evening into tonight to account for these trends. Scattered snow showers and strong winds then become the story for Friday, with the greatest impacts to travel expected across western MN.

Accumulations generally remain on track, though losing the today's daytime half inch to inch may cut 2-totals somewhat across western WI.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Cold & quiet overnight, but that changes late this morning as the first wave of snow moves through eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. This first wave of snow will be brief, only an hour or two late this morning through mid-afternoon, but could drop a quick half inch to inch of snow mainly east of I-35 & north of I-94 across eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin. There is also a chance for some freezing to drizzle to develop on the back side of this wave of snow as we lose ice crystal saturation, potential causing some icy roads early this afternoon.

We'll likely have a lull of a few hours during the rest of the afternoon, when the main round of snow for today's event begins with the passage of an occluded front & strong vorticity advection aloft over the region. Again, most of the snow with this evening round will fall over eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, but light snow showers will likely spread farther west into central & south-central Minnesota overnight. Generally 1-3" of snow is expected this evening into Friday morning with this round, with amounts increasing closer to 3" the farther east into Wisconsin you go. This second wave of snow ends during the early morning hours & should be out of Eau Claire by the morning commute. When you add it all up by tomorrow morning, portions of western Wisconsin may likely exceed our 3-4" of snow criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory, but the extended nature of the event & timing away from our main commute times has led us too hold off on issuing one at this time.

Friday looks to be our main period for hazardous winter weather, as gusty northwest winds & scattered snow showers develop through the day behind an Arctic front. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are expected to develop through the morning across western & southern Minnesota, and 30-40 mph farther east. This gusts could continue continue all the way into Friday evening, & still remain gusty into Saturday morning although speeds will begin waning by tomorrow night. ALong with the gusty winds, widespread snow showers are expected to develop in the strong cold-air advection regime behind the front along with very strong cyclonic flow aloft. We're really only expecting additional snowfall of accumulations of 0.5-1" with the snow showers Friday, but the gusty winds will lead to very low visibilities during times of falling snow. Near-whiteout conditions could be possible at times across open areas of western & southern Minnesota where the winds will be strongest. We will work to coordinate Winter Weather Advisories & Warnings with our neighboring offices today, but prepare on difficult travel conditions for much of the day Friday.

Lingering snow showers wrap up Friday evening, but the cold air behind the Arctic front is here to stay this weekend into early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal into early next week. That likely means highs in the single digits & lows well-below zero, although lows will greatly depend on how much snow we see through Friday & how clear skies can stay overnight. Winds also look to remain elevated through this cold snap, so we'll have to monitor the potential for cold weather advisories during the nights & morning hours. A reinforcing surge of Arctic air arrives Sunday night, along with a quick hit of light snow, Monday morning likely our coldest period of this cold snap.

Temperatures will begin to moderate Tuesday as the Arctic airmass slides off to the east, but dry northwest aloft will likely keep temperatures below normal through the rest of the week. Guidance suggests another intrusion of Arctic air & well- below normal temepratures arrives next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A quick burst of snow looks possible around noon across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, with brief reductions to MVFR/IFR visibility likely. The main round of snow today arrives this evening with a few hours of snow across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The snow will be longest duration at RNH & EAU, where the best chances for IFR visibility & accumulations of 2-4" exist. Scattered light snow showers are likely to develop area-wide Friday morning, along with low visibility from gusty winds, but still too early to have an idea on their placement & timing.

Otherwise, ceilings lower through the morning with MVFR ceilings developing this afternoon. Southerly winds increase this morning with gusts around 20 kts possible, then become southwesterly & eventually westerly through the afternoon. Wind gusts return late this afternoon & tonight with gusts around 30 kts likely across western Minnesota & 20-25 kts elsewhere.

KMSP...Hard to say whether dry air near the surface will limit any snow from reaching the surface until the main wave arrives tonight. Still, there is a chance for brief MVFR visibility & a dusting of snow between noon-2 PM today. The main round of snow arrives after the evening push, likely 7-8 PM & should wrap up around midnight.

Gusty northwest winds develop tonight with gusts around 30 kts continuing through Friday. Scattered snow showers are also expected to develop through the day, with periods of very low visibility from blowing snow likely during any snow showers.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...IFR likely during snow showers Wind NW 15-20G30 kts. SAT...MVFR likely. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SUN...VFR chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.