textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- This Evening, the flooding thread has trended down, but thunderstorms with heavy rain are still possible between 5pm and 8pm for a few counties along I-90.

- Looking ahead, seasonable temperatures with mainly dry conditions expected for the Sunday through next work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Early afternoon satellite and radar imagery showed widespread clouds and rain across the region. However there was no lightning as instability remained to the south. The lack of lightning and deep convection meant rainfall rates were only about 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour. This kept the flood threat low across most of the region.

The lone exception was down along I-90, where there is still a chance for some convection and heavier rainfall rates to develop this evening. The flood threat has trended down, but did continue with the Flood Watch since there is a potential for storms.

Overnight, the steady rain will gradually end, but the low clouds will continue into Saturday. Forecast soundings showed low level saturation and some omega, so did increase the chance for precipitation Saturday morning, and went with drizzle instead of rain. Winds will be out of the northeast at 10 to 15 mph, and temperatures will be in the low 60s making it feel like fall.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Looking ahead, mostly dry conditions are expected for next week. A boundary will lay out to the south across Iowa, and be the focus for showers and storms. Meanwhile upper level ridging will lead to a surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side to start the week. However, southerly winds start to return by the end of next week, which will bring in slightly warmer air, and small chances for rain across the west. Overall expect dry weather this coming week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 656 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Sites will fluctuate between MVFR/IFR cigs over the next couple of hours prior to widespread IFR cigs tonight through much of tomorrow. Prevailing RA continues to move east leaving scattered light rain showers and drizzle in its wake. Continuing to monitor the potential for -TSRA over the next few hours near MKT but trends appear to focus well south of the MKT field. Breezy easterly wind gusts 18-21kts will continue to weaken this evening however sustaining speeds between 8-10kts overnight. Winds will then shift NE'ly by mid-morning.

KMSP...Have a tempo group for fluctuating cigs between MVFR/IFR for the next couple of hours before prevailing IFR through much of the period. Main period of precip is now over however, remnant drizzle will linger until later in the morning (~16z). East winds tonight shift NE'ly with crosswind gusts near 20kts after 16z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NE 10-20 kts. MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10G15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Freeborn. WI...None.