textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- An arriving cold front will produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for mainly southern-eastern MN into western WI this afternoon.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

- The next best chances for rain come Saturday night and Monday morning, then mostly dry conditions are expected for next week.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values into the middle of next week, then drop below normal late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Other than passing high clouds and elevated wildfire smoke, mainly clear skies are displayed on satellite imagery this morning. Patchy fog is showing up just south of the IA/MN border and into far SE MN, but fog is not expected to be an issue for the WFO MPX coverage area this morning. What is of concern is the approaching cold front currently draped over NW MN, emanating from a 999mb surface low south of Hudson Bay. This system is underneath a broad central NOAM trough, which is forecast to shove a digging axis around the base of the broad trough, sweeping through the Dakotas and Upper Midwest later today. Not a whole lot of moisture is associated with the anticipated frontal passage later today, thus limiting overall instability to potentially 1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE. That said, bulk shear of around 35kt pushing through the area in conjunction with the frontal dynamics, along with favorable early-mid afternoon diurnal timing, will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. The focus areas look to be far southern and eastern MN into western WI. Should lapse rates be realized in the 7-8 deg C/km rates, as has been advertised the past 24-48hrs for today, then along with the mid-level stronger winds, a few storms could produce large hail and damaging winds. SPC maintains the Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for eastern portions of our coverage area so the bottom line is that there is a non-zero risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon, even despite the overall smaller PoPs and meager expected coverage of storms today.

The cold front will slide into WI by this evening then into the central Great Lakes tonight, allowing for any and all precip to be out of our coverage area by sunset. High pressure will then prevail tonight through all day Saturday. A developing front over northern MN and the Dakotas looks to slide southward through our area Saturday night, linking up with a low pressure system shifting eastward from the Plains into the Mid- Mississippi River Valley Saturday night. Additional showers/thunderstorms look likely near the I-90 corridor portion of MN Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A few thunderstorms are possible but the better storm coverage and strength will be in IA and points south. Similarly, another round of showers/thunderstorms looks likely for far southern portions of our coverage area Sunday night into Monday morning along the same stalled frontal boundary. Again, better storm coverage/strength will be south and southeast of the WFO MPX coverage area, and both these systems will also have very little potential for heavy rain since the dynamics and frontal forcing will be better to the south of our area.

Once past these weekend chances of rain, a mainly dry period is expected for much of next week as systems develop over the Rockies but will have little impetus to reach our portion of the lower 48, and systems look to phase over the Ohio Valley and bring precipitation to the Appalachians and points east. Thus, this scenario will leave us primarily high and dry for most of next week. Little in the way or airmass change from now until the middle of next week will mean that elevated wildfire smoke will still be possible, but this will have little effect to the surface other than keeping temperatures from getting far away from normal values. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s from the end of this week into the middle of next week. Finally by the end of next week, a more pronounced eastern NOAM trough with a Four Corners ridge pattern looks to develop, which will make for solid NW flow aloft for the Upper Midwest. This will make a pathway for cooler central Canadian air to spread southward into our area, thus dropping highs back to the 70s area-wide and lows to the 50s area-wide for the latter portion of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Clusters of -TSRA over eastern and southern MN will continue east over the next few hours. MVFR conditions are possible within the cores of the heavier storms, though this activity will likely decay by mid-afternoon as it gets into western WI. However, CAMs suggest redevelopment of scattered -TSRA late this afternoon. Have delayed timing of PROB30 at EAU until 21-00z. Skies will quickly clear out after the convection moves east, resulting in VFR the remainder of the period. Winds will turn northwesterly after the cold front passes, then become light/variable tonight before turning south-southwesterly Saturday morning.

KMSP...A lingering shower or thunderstorm could still be near MSP at the start of the TAF period, but the majority of the activity will be well to the south. VFR expected by mid- afternoon with skies clearing this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming N. MON...Chc A.M. MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts or less.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.