textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow possible across eastern MN/western WI late tonight into Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation expected.

- Band of accumulating snow possible across southern MN Saturday.

- Warmer late week (40s), colder this weekend (20s), followed by a rebound into the 30s next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A rather pleasant late February day has taken place across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures have warmed into the upper teens and lower 20s in addition to plenty of sunshine and tolerable northwest winds. Wind chill temperatures remain in the teens - but the late Winter sun angle definitely helps it feel warmer. The exception will be southwest Minnesota, where a band of snow has developed across the extreme SW corner of the state. This band of snow will produce light accumulations before sliding off to the southeast tonight. The MPX forecast area will likely stay dry - but a few flakes could fall southwest of the MN River. For tonight, an intensifying northern stream jet will eject out of the northwest. Guidance hints at the development of an area of light snow ahead of the jet streak. This area of light snow should stay to the north, but clip our western Wisconsin counties. There is notable dry air in place ahead of this weak disturbance and that should limit any snowfall to amounts less than half an inch. Elsewhere, we'll see a mid-level cloud deck build in that also signals our flip back to a milder air mass Thursday & Friday.

A potent clipper-type system will strength as it moves east across southern Canada Thursday into Friday. This will usher in a surge of warm advection within westerly mid-level flow over southern MN/western WI. This will translate to our surface temperatures running a good 10 to 20 degrees above normal Thursday (40s) and Friday (40s and 50s). Both days will be pleasant for late February standards with only some cloud cover to contend with. The clipper will move into the Great Lakes Friday night & Saturday, that will bring a strong cold front through late Friday/early Saturday, ushering back more typical late February and early March temperatures for the weekend. Highs will top out in the teens and 20s. Our attention turns to Saturday as a disturbance moves out of the Rockies and into the Midwest. A band of snow will develop along the low/mid level temperature gradient across the Dakotas and move into southern MN Saturday morning. Models highlight strong FGEN in the 850/700mb layers that will support a narrow band of moderate snow with lighter snow to the north. It'll track from the WNW to the ESE with the heaviest snowfall likely along the I-90 corridor in S MN Saturday. The Twin Cities southern Metro will be on the northern edge, but should see light snow and half inch or so of accumulation. Locations north will remain dry. While there is some variation between models - there is enough support for a strip of 0.10" to 0.25" of QPF - which translates to a 1 to 3" snow event across S MN. The exact placement of this band will depend on where exactly that low/mid level thermal gradient sets up... something that'll take a few days to fine tune with future forecasts.

Behind this, Sunday appears mostly dry. We've decreased PoPs with coordination with our neighbors given a weak signal in the 12z guidance package. Next week will begin to see our temperatures climb back above normal by mid- week. Highs in the 30s and 40s are likely with forecast lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s - much closer to where our average high temperatures should be for early March! One signal that's present across the various ensembles is the trend toward another stretch of more active weather as we get toward the end of the first week of March. There is a consistent signal for precipitation chances every 3-4 days from the 4th through 12th. This suggests to us that we'll see a few opportunities for precip as we begin March. Recent history also favors March for larger, more impactful storms across the Upper Midwest. Precipitation type will be important to watch as we're not necessarily working with potential snow events but likely mixed p- types and pure rain events. It's not too crazy considering the first day of meteorological Spring is Sunday March 1st.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1108 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A fairly quiet period aviation wise with the main highlights being some mid level CIGS developing after 00z lasting through around 12z, with periods of FEW/SCT100-200 both before and after the cigs. Winds will favor a shift towards 200-230 at or around 10kts, with an occasional gust to 15-20kts possible from period start to 22-23z. There is a small window for MVFR while CIGS are overhead, favoring RNH/EAU from roughly 03-12z, however there is higher confidence we remain VFR the entire time.

KMSP...No additional concerns...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15kts. SAT...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.