textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- An arriving cold front will produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for mainly southern-eastern MN into western WI this afternoon.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with the main hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

- The next best chances for rain come Saturday night and Monday morning, then mostly dry conditions are expected for next week.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values into the middle of next week, then drop below normal late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Other than passing high clouds and elevated wildfire smoke, mainly clear skies are displayed on satellite imagery this morning. Patchy fog is showing up just south of the IA/MN border and into far SE MN, but fog is not expected to be an issue for the WFO MPX coverage area this morning. What is of concern is the approaching cold front currently draped over NW MN, emanating from a 999mb surface low south of Hudson Bay. This system is underneath a broad central NOAM trough, which is forecast to shove a digging axis around the base of the broad trough, sweeping through the Dakotas and Upper Midwest later today. Not a whole lot of moisture is associated with the anticipated frontal passage later today, thus limiting overall instability to potentially 1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE. That said, bulk shear of around 35kt pushing through the area in conjunction with the frontal dynamics, along with favorable early-mid afternoon diurnal timing, will allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. The focus areas look to be far southern and eastern MN into western WI. Should lapse rates be realized in the 7-8 deg C/km rates, as has been advertised the past 24-48hrs for today, then along with the mid-level stronger winds, a few storms could produce large hail and damaging winds. SPC maintains the Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for eastern portions of our coverage area so the bottom line is that there is a non-zero risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon, even despite the overall smaller PoPs and meager expected coverage of storms today.

The cold front will slide into WI by this evening then into the central Great Lakes tonight, allowing for any and all precip to be out of our coverage area by sunset. High pressure will then prevail tonight through all day Saturday. A developing front over northern MN and the Dakotas looks to slide southward through our area Saturday night, linking up with a low pressure system shifting eastward from the Plains into the Mid- Mississippi River Valley Saturday night. Additional showers/thunderstorms look likely near the I-90 corridor portion of MN Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A few thunderstorms are possible but the better storm coverage and strength will be in IA and points south. Similarly, another round of showers/thunderstorms looks likely for far southern portions of our coverage area Sunday night into Monday morning along the same stalled frontal boundary. Again, better storm coverage/strength will be south and southeast of the WFO MPX coverage area, and both these systems will also have very little potential for heavy rain since the dynamics and frontal forcing will be better to the south of our area.

Once past these weekend chances of rain, a mainly dry period is expected for much of next week as systems develop over the Rockies but will have little impetus to reach our portion of the lower 48, and systems look to phase over the Ohio Valley and bring precipitation to the Appalachians and points east. Thus, this scenario will leave us primarily high and dry for most of next week. Little in the way or airmass change from now until the middle of next week will mean that elevated wildfire smoke will still be possible, but this will have little effect to the surface other than keeping temperatures from getting far away from normal values. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s from the end of this week into the middle of next week. Finally by the end of next week, a more pronounced eastern NOAM trough with a Four Corners ridge pattern looks to develop, which will make for solid NW flow aloft for the Upper Midwest. This will make a pathway for cooler central Canadian air to spread southward into our area, thus dropping highs back to the 70s area-wide and lows to the 50s area-wide for the latter portion of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions for all sites to start the 07/12z TAF set, although some IFR low ceilings are impacting AXN while RA/TSRA are encroaching upon RWF. A cold front continues to make progress eastward from NW MN this morning and will sweep southeastward across MN/WI through the next 24 hrs. A few clusters of TSRA are moving into Western MN this morning, potentially impacting RWF. Overall, the morning activity is expected to run into more stable air, allowing diurnal impacts later this afternoon to blend with the frontal dynamics to spark isolated-scattered SHRA/TSRA for mainly southern-eastern MN into western WI. Still some timing/placement disagreements among the CAMs but sufficient agreement exists to allow for a TEMPOs at AXN-RWF with PROB30 groups at MKT-MSP-RNH-EAU this afternoon. The frontal passage will also result in a wind shift from SW to NW, possibly a little breezy/gusty behind the front for a few hours before winds settle down later this evening.

KMSP...Only wrinkle in this forecast cycle is the continued possibility for early-mid afternoon TSRA with the frontal passage. Not a great chance, but not one that can go unmentioned either, so have maintained the PROB30. Otherwise, a wind shift is expected from this morning into this evening with the frontal passage, but speeds are expected to remain only around 10kts or less throughout this duration.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming N. MON...Chc A.M. MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts or less.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.