textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers & thunderstorms possible tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly across central & western Minnesota.

- Another round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, primarily east of Interstate 35. A few strong to severe storms are possible.

- Quiet & seasonable weather returns Wednesday through Friday, with rain chances increasing again next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Quiet conditions across Minnesota & western Wisconsin overnight, despite two areas of thunderstorms ongoing across the eastern Dakotas. These clusters of thunderstorms will wane into the morning as they move eastwards, with perhaps some lingering light rain across southwest Minnesota through mid to late morning. Temperatures will again be around 80 degrees this afternoon, except across southern Minnesota where cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. Dew points increase through the day, especially across western Minnesota, leading more muggy conditions compared to over the weekend.

A shortwave passes over the region tonight into Tuesday with a cold front passing through the region through the day on Tuesday. Overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop tonight across eastern North Dakota. These storms could initially contain large hail & damaging winds, but are expected to weaken as they move eastwards into Minnesota after midnight. High resolution models are still varied on just how long these thunderstorms may hold together overnight into Tuesday morning, with the best chances for any rain expected across west-central Minnesota. Cloud cover from these lingering showers & thunderstorms could linger into the afternoon, potentially limiting the instability present for a potential second round of storms Tuesday late Tuesday afternoon & evening. Recent guidance has generally slowed down the passage of the cold front, which could give far-eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin more time to destabilize Tuesday afternoon. Dew points in the low to mid 60s combined with temperatures warming into the 80s could support around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, while 30-40 kts of deep shear will be more than enough for storms to organize. If we can realize this environment, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms would likely develop along the front during the afternoon & move eastwards through the evening, with damaging winds & large hail the main threats. So while confidence is increasing that at least a few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon & evening, the magnitude & coverage of the threat still depends heavily on how quickly the atmosphere can recover during the day.

The cold front exits into Wisconsin Tuesday night with cooler & drier northwest flow returning Wednesday. A few showers could linger Wednesday, mainly closer to the upper low across northern Minnesota & Wisconsin, but most of our area should trend dry through the day. High pressure then brings quiet weather Thursday into Friday with highs generally around 80 & comfortable humidity. The pattern looks to become more active again heading into next weekend as multiple shortwaves move through the northern Plains & Upper Midwest. This should bring increasing chances for showers & thunderstorms sometime Friday night through Sunday, but timing differences within the guidance lead to low confidence in the details this far out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Increasing high clouds overnight with light southeasterly winds. Southerly winds approach 10 kts by the afternoon with a few gusts up to 20 kts, speeds diminish after sunset.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.