textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper will bring light snow and very gusty winds today. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for western, central, and southern MN due to blowing snow and reduced visibility causing potentially hazardous travel.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight into Monday morning with forecast wind chill values of -25 to -35 F.

- Below to much below normal temperatures for the rest of the week with the next chance of snow midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

It's chilly tonight with much of the area near or below zero while a non-zero wind is causing wind chill values to be several degrees colder. Light snow currently over the Dakotas will shift east into western MN over the next few hours as our next clipper system arrives. The snow will continue to spread east into WI throughout the morning into the afternoon before quickly ending from west to east by Sunday evening. Most guidance is consistent with a broad 1- 2" across the CWA when it's all said and done. Localized areas could see amounts climb close to 3", particularly the counties near the MN/WI border. While snowfall amounts won't be too heavy, the biggest concern with this clipper is the very strong northwesterly winds that will immediately proceed it. Forecast models show a 40-50 knot 850 hPa LLJ rushing south into the Northern Plains this afternoon into tonight. Surface winds will increase across western MN by late morning and spread east into this evening. Sustained values will reach 20-35 MPH (strongest values in western MN) while gusts will range from 25-35 MPH across WI, to 40-50 MPH across western MN. Timing of the strongest winds across western MN will be from about noon until about 10 PM tonight. With the light fluffy snow we received on Friday and the expected fluffy snow today, blowing snow and reduced visibilities look probable late this morning through this evening, especially from western to southern MN where winds will be strongest. A strongly worded Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for western through southern MN until 9 PM tonight. We have also added some counties to the Winter Weather Advisory in central to eastern MN where still stronger winds will cause blowing snow. If traveling, be prepared for reduced visibility and potentially areas with snow covered roads. Will have to monitor the short-term forecast to see if any upgrades to headlines are warranted. Particularly, western MN would be most susceptible to potential whiteout conditions that a Blizzard Warning is not out of the question. Stevens county already experienced adverse conditions from blowing snow Saturday morning and with stronger winds and falling snow forecast today, it is cause for concern.

The Winter Weather Advisory has an end time of 9 PM tonight as winds should subside enough that blowing snow and reduced visibilities won't be as much of an issue. However, colder air will arrive tonight and combined with sustained winds of 15-20 MPH (gusts to 25- 35 MPH), wind chills will drop well into hazardous levels tonight into Monday morning. A CWA-wide Cold Weather Advisory is also in effect tonight through Monday morning for wind chills of -25 to -35 F. Make sure to wear many layers and cover exposed skin as frostbite can occur in as little as 10 minutes with this cold air. Winds will slowly subside during Monday but still remain strong enough that with highs only in the single digits, wind chills will struggle to rise above -10 F. Monday night's lows will be similar to Sunday night's but, with weaker winds wind chill values will only range from -15 to -25 F. Temperatures slightly moderate into the teens Tuesday as a few weaker mid-level vorticity maxes rotate through the Upper Midwest into Wednesday within the prevailing northwesterly upper-level flow. An organized low pressure system doesn't look likely, but we could see some prolonged light snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning that could add up to around an inch.

For the remainder of the week, the forecast looks relatively quiet regarding precipitation chances. NBM PoPs only max out at 15-25% towards next weekend, mainly due to the lack of a strong organized system and larger model spread when handling the evolution of the weaker systems. More certain is another return to the deep freeze by the end of this week. Long-range forecast models show good agreement that an arctic air mass will dive south from northern Canada into the Northern Plains by next weekend. Forecast 850 hPa temperatures within this air mass currently range from -25 to -35 C, signaling a good chance that surface lows will be well below -10 F. Combined with any wind, cold air headlines would probably be needed at some point if the current forecast holds. However, we still need to deal with our first bout of cold air tonight.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The forecast remains on track with likely IFR snowfall moving across all sites through the course of this TAF period. VFR cigs currently will become MVFR as a line of -SN arrives from the Dakotas. Snowfall rates are expected to reduce vsbys down to IFR for several hours with accumulations ranging between 1-2" before diminishing Sunday evening. Southerly winds will shift northwesterly and increase between 30-40kt quickly after frontal passage. Given the recent fallen powder-like snow, BLSN is likely to follow with continued reduced visibility at times through much of the afternoon. Winds will not be as strong across our eastern sites therefore was not confident to include prevailing LIFR conditions. However, EAU and RNH can still anticipate a few hours of blowing snow during the late afternoon/evening.

KMSP....VFR early this morning but transitions to IFR snowfall as early as 11z although more likely near 12-13z. As mentioned in the previous aviation discussion, snowfall rates are not expected to exceed 0.5"/hr. Snowfall totals are expected to reach 1-2" inches once the snow clears by midday Sunday. Southerly winds will shift NW and increase to 25-30kts which may cause blowing snow impacts and more visibility impacts for the evening push. For now, maintained lowest vsby as 2sm but there is potential that LIFR vsbys may need to be introduced if confidence increases for Sunday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Winds W 5-10kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SN/MVFR late. Wind S to NW 5kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd- Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for Benton-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison. WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.