textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday night. Best chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is this evening, focused across western Minnesota.

- Quiet weather returns for the second half of the week with near-normal temperatures and only low rain chances Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Satellite imagery depicts clear skies across most of southern MN this afternoon with a growing CU field across WI and central MN. An ACCAS field has been present much of the day across west central MN and a few showers have recently developed between Morris and Alexandria. The low levels are quite dry with dew points in the 50s and low 60s, but some increase is expected this evening as richer moisture over the Dakotas slides east. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this evening along a cold front across western MN. Sufficient instability (2000-3000 J/kg) from the increased low level moisture and 45-50 kts of speed shear will bring the potential for splitting supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms should weaken late this evening and overnight as storms progress east. Another round of showers and storms is possible late tonight and early Tuesday, especially south of I-94, as a second short wave passes through. Depending on early day convection, a third round is possible late Tuesday afternoon primarily across southern/eastern MN into WI. This round is of low confidence, but a weak front in the presence of sufficient instability and shear will bring a low risk of severe storms during peak diurnal heating.

West northwest flow aloft will prevail into early next week thanks to the ridge parked over the southern Rockies. Multiple disturbances embedded within the flow will bring periodic low chances for showers and storms but confidence in specifics beyond early Tuesday is low. In the absence of any precipitation, conditions will continue to be pleasant with temperatures near normal. Unfortunately, the prospects of widespread soaking rainfall is very low for at least the rest of the month.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Overall VFR conditions over this period. There will be some periods of isolated to scattered thunderstorms with category reductions to mainly MVFR and maybe IFR as they pass through. These will be temporary and for less than an hour. The PROB30 groups are for the time range when this reduction could occur. Storms are currently in west central Minnesota and will spread south and east this evening. Another round will be possible in the morning and a third is possible tomorrow evening (this last round is mostly not in this set of TAFs). Overall winds, outside of thunderstorms, will be light and under 10 knots.

KMSP...The first chance early this evening has weakened considerably and is unlikely to cause impacts. The next chance, and main chance, comes later this evening and is related to the storms across western Minnesota. Later rounds are less confident, but kept some mention in the TAFs for timing of possible impacts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15 kts. FRI...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.