textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast tonight into Tuesday morning. A few stronger storms may produce isolated damaging wind and hail across western MN.

- Highs in the upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday with a rebound into the upper 80s at the conclusion of the work week and over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Today into tonight...Warm and breezy day on tap today with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s. A tightening pressure gradient will bring breezy winds out of the south, with gusts 30-35mph possible in Western Minnesota. As the front passes overnight, winds will flip out of north / northwest. A vigorous shortwave will drive a low pressure system over central Canada along with a trailing cold front that will bring a round of much needed precipitation to northwestern Minnesota. However, prospects of more than a quarter inch of rain are low across our forecast area. Guidance hints at some attempts at mid-afternoon elevated showers north and west of the Twin Cities, though capping and ample dry air in the lower levels will limit coverage (and much in the way of precipitation reaching the surface). Our main round of precip will arrive late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The SPC has issued a Day 1 Slight Risk for much of northwest and north central Minnesota, with the eastern extent of the Slight Risk covering the northwestern half of Stevens, Douglas, & Todd counties. The most intense convection will occur across the Red River Valley and is forecast to weaken as it moves east overnight. Still, there may be a few instances of damaging wind or hail across western Minnesota.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Recent guidance suggests that convection reinvigorates near the MN/IA border during the day on Tuesday, although confidence is higher for precip on the Iowa side. Have amended PoPs near the border to reflect this change. We've also introduced a mention of patchy smoke into the grids on Tuesday following the passage of the front. However, confidence is low on air quality effects and trends will need to be monitored. We'll get a short break from the heat Tuesday into Wednesday as highs peak in the mid 70s, nearing 80 in the Twin Cities. Dews will fall into the 50s, making for a comfortable couple days!

Thursday onward...The heat we know and love makes a comeback Thursday as highs return to the mid 80s, climbing to the upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. Upper level flow becomes increasingly zonal as we approach the weekend. Precip chances may also return over the weekend, although forcing remains nebulous at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR expected area-wide until a cold front pushes west to east across the region tonight. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA is expected along the front with west-central MN looking like the most likely region for -TSRA. Have upgraded all PROB30s to TEMPOs given increased forecast confidence and included RNH as well. Brief MVFR is possible at AXN as -TSRA occurs. Cigs drop to at least low-end VFR after frontal passage with WI terminals most likely to see MVFR into Tuesday morning. South-southeasterly winds will increase this afternoon and gust to near 25 knots through this evening. Winds then turn northwesterly after frontal passage and slow to around 10 knots after sunrise Tuesday morning. South-southwesterly LLWS of 40-45 knots is likely at most terminals this evening in the few hours prior to the cold frontal passage.

KMSP...Included south-southwesterly LLWS of 40 knots from 04-08z as LLJ moves overhead. Upgraded PROB30 to TEMPO with best timing of -SHRA looking like 08-11z. A stray thunderstorm may occur but confidence currently is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind VRB to SW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.