textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures with mostly cloudy skies persist through the weekend.

- Drier conditions return next week with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

- Next chance for rain arrives Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The active weather overnight shifted south into Iowa and Illinois with the main front. We've seen clearing slowly proceed south overnight, but we are expecting any clear skies this morning to cloud back up pretty quick as a stratocu field fills back in with mixing. Still, the presence of at least a little sun will allow highs today to push up into the mid 60s.

For tonight and Monday, energy from the messy trough on water vapor imagery moving across MT/WY will slowly move across the region. The strongest bit of energy, which is currently over WY, will continue east across Neb and into Iowa on Monday. This will spread more clouds across the area, with light rain looking likely to spread across southern MN on Monday given broad and weak ascent associated with the h5 low down over Iowa. Amounts will be very light (under a tenth of an inch), but Monday will be another cool, gray, and damp day south of the Twin Cities.

For the rest of the work week, we'll see a Rex Block try to develop over central Canada, with the primary blocking high setting up over Hudson Bay. This upper air setup will support a nearly station surface high over the Great Lakes, with a dry easterly flow resulting for us. This will dry us out for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday night, a cold front will be moving across the Dakotas. This front will washout and lose its definition over MN on Thursday, but its plume of increased moisture will remain, which looks to shake out some light rain. The best chances will be in western MN as the low level air becomes increasingly drier the farther east you go.

For Friday into the weekend, we'll see ridging return with upper flow becoming southwesterly in response to height falls across western North America. The forecast for next weekend is trending drier as ensemble means show that western trough not ejecting out across the central CONUS until early in the week of the 28th. After the gloomy weekend we have had to this point, next weekend should be a great weekend to get out and enjoy your favorite fall outdoor activities with highs getting back up into the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

No major changes were made to the going TAFs, with the stratocu field expected to fill back in this morning as mixing deepens and we make a cu field. It should start as MVFR, but lift to VFR levels through the afternoon. Overnight, we should mostly lose the low level clouds, but mid/upper clouds will replace them, keeping the status quo with the cloudy skies. Winds will be fairly steady out of the northeast through this period.

KMSP...Still looks like 16z to 20z is our best window for seeing MVFR cigs as the cu field fills in, with VFR conditions expected to prevail after 22z. There will be a good cross-wind component with the northeast winds, though directions look to have enough of an easterly component to keep the 12s as the primary runways today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.