textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain chances return this weekend with Saturday offering the best chance for showers across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- A frontal passage brings more widespread rain Monday night into Tuesday.

NEXT WEEK

On Monday, south/southwesterly flow will remain locked in across the region ahead of the next upper level shortwave trough. High temperatures will warm a few degrees from Sunday, around 70 degrees areawide. With anomalous moisture in place, the next upper level shortwave and associated surface front will promote widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday. As of now, there's still a degree of uncertainty regarding how this system evolves. That said, it's to difficult, with little forecaster confidence to determine exact rainfall totals. Looking at 00z deterministic models and their respected ensemble suites, guidance is painting greater than 50 percent chance(medium to high confidence) of 24 hour rainfall totals of greater than 0.10 inches areawide. Looking at the probability of 24 hour totals greater than 0.50 inches, guidance is painting at 20-40 percent chance(low to medium confidence).

The next chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday period. An upper level trough will move across the Desert Southwest before ejecting northeastward across the Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. There still remains uncertainty regarding this system, and how far north the associated deep and anomalous moisture advects. That said, 20-40 percent PoPs remain in the forecast grids, highlighting Wednesday night into Thursday rain chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The outlook for the 06z TAF is continued IFR/MVFR with periods of LIFR possible mainly for the westernmost sites being AXN/RWF with a lower chance at MKT/STC, and next to no chance at MSP/RNH/EAU. Winds remain 120-150 at or below 7kts for most of the day, becoming VRB03kt by the end of the period. The IFR/LIFR visibility within the AXN/RWF TEMPO groups will likely end up being extended an extra few hours but the observations have remained intermittent enough to keep it out of the prevailing line for now. Gradual improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR is expected for the western sites, likewise MVFR to VFR and remaining VFR for the central/eastern sites.

KMSP...Introduced a TEMPO group for MVFR CIGS for the first few hours of the TAF as obs will need to be monitored closely with IFR/MVFR CIGS just to the west of MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. SUN...MVFR/-SHRA early, then MVFR to VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.