textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers possible across southern Minnesota Sunday, then better chance for widespread rain Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures continue through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Other than widespread summertime cu this afternoon, temperatures are expected to comfortably remain in the 70s. Winds will become light and variable later this evening. An upper-level low over eastern Manitoba will continue to move southward along a deepening troughing pattern over the Great Lakes Region. Surface high pressure locally should suppress most development for any precip this afternoon. However, a weak instability axis over our western Wisconsin counties is coupled with the upper-level jet. Meaning this does warrant a slight chance of a few isolated showers this afternoon. Given the weak forcing and lack of sufficient moisture, any rain that manages to develop should be light and brief. Our attention then shifts to southern MN tonight through tomorrow. Latest water vapor imagery shows ridging occurring over the intermountain west and embedded within this ridge is an area of lower pressure that will move into the central CONUS tonight. This system will carry sufficient moisture to generate widespread showers and storms however much of this activity will be well south of MN/WI. With deviations in the low's track possible combined with QPF trends in EPS Ensemble meteograms, decided to nudge NBM pops up ~10% along the I-90 corridor. QPF amounts would be limited to a tenth of an inch or less. Temperatures tomorrow will reach the mid-70s for most with partly sunny skies.

Another system moves across the northern plains from the Canadian prairies Tuesday. Better moisture will advect back up into the Upper Mississippi River Valley, as a cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon. The thermodynamic environment continues to advertise mainly a general thunder threat as sfc and mid-level lapse rates range between 6-7 deg C/km and MUCAPE of 500 J/kg at best. However, will need to keep an eye the veering wind profiles as this could serve as a nudge for a marginal convective threat Tuesday evening. For the rest of the week, temperatures will remain below average in the low to mid-70s.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, there are signs of ridging trying to build back to the Upper Midwest by Friday into next weekend. This hints at a potentially more active pattern developing, along with temperatures returning closer to normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR. Scattered diurnal cu will linger through this evening. NNW'ly winds mainly between 8-12kts with mostly sub-18kt gusts can be expected this afternoon. Winds will then decrease to light and variable tonight then shifting east early Sunday between 5-10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON... VFR. Wind NE at 5-10 kts. TUE... VFR. Chc of MVFR/TSRA. Wind SSW at 5-10 kts WED... VFR. Chc of MVFR/TSRA. Wind NW at 5-10 kts

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.