textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold & dry this weekend.

- Chances for snow Tuesday & Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Northwest flow & cold advection continues through this weekend with daytime highs this afternoon only expected to reach the teens across western Minnesota & low 20s farther east, with low clouds streaming northwards out of Iowa limiting any sunshine today to the morning hours. Temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler on Sunday as the core of a cold Canadian airmass settles over the region with advancing high pressure. This regime continues through Monday with below-normal temperatures & dry conditions, outside of some flurries at times with the persistent stratus.

Midweek, the flow aloft becomes more active as strong northwesterly flow develops with a 150+ kt jet streak setting up over the northern plains & nosing into the Upper Midwest. Numerous disturbances/weak clippers are possible with this flow regime aloft, but guidance remains spread on when & where any of these systems may track midweek. For now, like the general picture conveyed by the AIFS & ECMWF AI ensemble, which has a weaker clipper tracking across northern Minnesota & northern Wisconsin Tuesday, followed by a more robust clipper over the Dakotas & central/southern Minnesota Wednesday. The first of these could bring light snow on the order of an inch or so to portions of north-central Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin, while we'll have to keep a closer eye on the Wednesday system with the AIFS at least advertising the potential for plowable snow of 3"+. We'll likely see the wide spread in the forecast suite as a whole continue into at least early next week for these systems, but it's worth mentioning the AI solutions here as they have shown exceptional skill in pinning down the track of these northwest flow systems/clippers even at the 5+ day range.

Temperatures through next week take on an up & down trend, with aboven-normal temperatures likely south of the expected track of the clipper on Tuesday, followed by cooler temperatures Wednesday (especially where we see the band of precipitation from the clipper). Temperatures bounce back to end the week with well- above-normal temperatures likely Friday as ensemble guidance shows temperature anomalies around 10 F above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Low stratus has cleared all terminals west of EAU and we should see cigs scatter out at EAU early in the 12z TAF period. Focus then shifts to stratus across ND and north of the International Border. A wave diving southeast within the northwesterly flow regime will be the focus for the return of MVFR stratus at all seven terminals later today. Latest RAP forecast soundings generally remains in line with LAMP guidance, which suggests the MVFR ceilings will develop through the afternoon at all sites. On the flip side, HRRR guidance is a bit more pessimistic and advertises VFR conditions prevailing through the daylight hours prior to MVFR ceilings developing near or after sunset. Flurries will be possible at anytime beneath the anticipated MVFR stratus due to collocation within the snow-growth zone and broad forcing from the aforementioned wave. While no mention is made in the 12z TAFs, brief visibility reductions will be possible. No snow accumulation is expected. Northwesterly winds prevail through the period and are forecast to gust between 20-25kts from this afternoon onward.

KMSP...Primary focus will be the development of MVFR ceilings later today. Northwesterly winds will remain breezy through the duration of the 12z TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR. Wind NW 15-20kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW becoming SW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW. 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.