textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold to end the weekend with highs only in the single digits in MN on today.

- Multiple chances for snow the first half of this week, with the most significant being Tuesday into Tuesday night.

- Cold temperatures return to end this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Current surface observations show areas of light snow persisting over southern MN as just enough saturation within the DGZ is allowing the development of snowflakes. However, a majority of the snow has ended as yesterday's clipper system moves off to the east. Both our office and the MSP airport received 0.5" of snow from Saturday's system, but those are the only reports we currently have. CAA is already occurring as north-northwesterly flow has developed in the wake of this system. West-central MN will see lows fall to near -10 F by sunrise while elsewhere will be in the negative single digits to near zero. Wind chill values across west-central MN will also fall to near -20 F providing a very brisk start to Sunday. Skies will attempt to clear as surface high pressure slides overhead. But, the extra sun won't help much as highs will only reach the single digits to low teens. Cloudy skies will return this evening as a weak shortwave within the northwesterly flow approaches. Light snow will push east into western MN by this evening and slide southeast into southern MN through tonight before dissipating. As said, this will be light snow so amounts will likely be less than an inch. Still, partially snow covered roads could result. Lows Sunday night will fall to within 5 degrees of zero.

Temperatures begin to rebound Monday as westerly flow develops over the Northern Plains allowing for WAA to occur. Highs Monday will warm into mostly the 20s but near 30 values are expected across southwest MN. Another clipper will encroach upon northwest MN by Monday evening. Latest guidance favors the clipper's surface low track from GFK, to just south of DLH, and then into central WI. With most of the precip shield located to the east/northeast of the low, most of our area shouldn't see too many impacts from this system. However, WAA occurring ahead of the low will most likely cause some snow to occur from central MN into west-central WI late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Once again, forecast snow amounts don't look too heavy but another 1" (to even 2") is possible from BRD to RCX.

Tuesday continues to look like the most interesting period of the forecast. Forecast models show another, much stronger clipper nearing western MN by Tuesday afternoon, traveling southeast through our CWA, and into the lower Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A rapidly deepening surface low will move in advance of the strong shortwave and the surface low's track will be very important for where and what types of precipitation fall. Strong WAA is forecast to occur to the south and east of the surface low such that surface temperatures will warm into the mid to even upper 30s. To the north of the low, temperatures will be comfortably below freezing such that a rain to snow transition is expected as we go from the warm sector to the cold sector. A brief transition to freezing rain is also possible as forecast soundings show a warm nose overrunning the subfreezing surface temperatures. Guidance tends to produce about 0.4-0.7" of QPF within the heaviest swath of precipitation. If snow ratios are near climatology, a few county-wide strip of 4-6" (to possibly 7") of snow seems like a good possibility somewhere in our CWA. Current model consensus tracks the surface low basically along the I-94 corridor, such that the heaviest snow would be along and just north of this corridor. Definitely think that winter headlines will be needed in the near future for at least our central MN into west-central WI counties. This angry clipper looks like it could pack quite the punch.

After mid-week, the forecast looks much drier as a very cold air mass from northwest Canada should slide into the Northern Plains. The end of the week looks quite brutal as long-range ensemble forecast highs struggling to exceed single digits for both Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows should plummet well below zero. If breezier winds can occur overnight, cold weather headlines may be warranted, particularly over western MN.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Skies will be clear this morning, but mid-level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon and will drop toward MVFR through the night tonight. Those lowering clouds will also come with another round of light snow west of I-35. Any snowfall that is seen tonight will come in at a half inch total or less. Dendritic growth zones on the order of 12k feet deep will make it pretty easy for any cloud layer to make snow tonight. Stayed close to a RAP timing for the snow potential tonight.

KMSP...Snow chances for MSP look to come right before sunrise Saturday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...MVFR/VFR cigs. Wind S 10-15 kts. TUE...MVFR/IFR late with -RASN. Wind S 10-15 kts, bcmg NW late. WED...MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.