textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms from southern Minnesota to western Wisconsin this afternoon and then in western Minnesota late afternoon into evening.

- More storm chances on Friday with the best chances across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- Saturday trends back to dry before wet weather returns late Sunday into next week.

- Much hotter temperatures by the middle of next week with 90s expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Rest of today and Friday...As warmer and more moist air has advected north today thunderstorms have fired across southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Attention will shift west later today as the frontal boundary there will fire additional thunderstorms across the Dakotas. These storms will continue into western Minnesota late this afternoon into this evening, possibly early tonight as well. SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe storms focused on high wind and large hail. This makes sense as low level shear does not look to be much. However instability has been building throughout the day. Storms have already fired in the Dakotas and the environment looks favorable for them to continue into Minnesota. The question right now is more how strong they could be and how widespread. Overnight instability will fall along a diurnal trend and as storms occur. This will lead to a dissipation of storms as we head into the morning. Another round of storms is expected on Friday just farther east and south as roughly the same setup from Thursday just be displaced east and south. Boundary location will favor southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin for tomorrow's storm chances. Once again more of a instability driven event with little low level shear so a wind and hail risk for the stronger storms. Deep layer shear for both days is enough that some isolated super cells could happen, just in a more isolated nature. This threat should pass by Friday night. These supers would be the ones that could have some larger hail chances if they occur.

Saturday into Monday... Saturday will see a brief period of quieter weather under higher surface pressure. This will not last, as late Sunday will see the start of the next period with rain and thunderstorm chances. Still a good amount of spread between ensemble membership on the start time. Best ensemble agreement is for Monday. In general GEFS is the most pessimistic with QPF and ENS is the most optimistic for rainfall. So much of the spread for this period is between model systems rather than membership between systems. There should be enough instability present for thunderstorms to occur with this rain chance, but there is not a clear signal yet for strong to severe storms. So in summary rain and storm chances increase Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with the best chances on Monday. Chances start to decrease Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Mid Next Week... Significantly hotter air will advect in during the middle of next week. Current NBM deterministic temperatures show widespread 90s. Even NBM25 shows high 80s to lower 90s, so looking like a very hot period. No good large scale source for lift and I'd say with the heat and humidity it would be more of an air mass thunderstorm setup for rain chances this period. Looking towards to ensemble setup, with respect to QPF, here it is widely scattered with the GEFS once again the one showing a systematic preference for a drier solution.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Confidence remains low with regard to isolated showers/storms Friday afternoon, so I have kept most sites VFR and dry. The scattered nature of convection and showers has made it more difficult than a blue sky forecast. Typical struggles are present in hi-res guidance and ongoing convection upstream over SoDak tonight. The expectation is that it'll continue to push east and dissipate before reaching western MN sites mid-morning. There should be a remnant MCV that may lead to additional isolated TS/SHRA mid-late morning into early afternoon hours. Additional activity would be limited in this scenario. Plan is to until 12Z to add precip and TS mention where confident and be quick to AMD at our western sites through sunrise today.

Winds will continue to be S/SW at the start, becoming light and VRB during the overnight and into the morning hours. Winds turn more west-southwesterly Friday afternoon/evening before turning light and variable again Friday night.

KMSP... An unsettled stretch is likely through Friday evening. I have opted to keep the terminal dry/VFR throughout the next 30 hours. The driving factor is the combination of the scattered nature of thunderstorms/showers and low confidence on what happens with respect to additional scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. For now, there is some convection and shower activity upstream over SoDak that will progress eastward through early Friday morning. Guidance supports that it should weaken and dissipate before MSP.

The remnant MCV will likely induce additional showers and thunderstorms mid to late morning across MN. I have less confidence on if that activity impacts MSP at this time. Plan is to AMD and insert the potential for -SHRA or -TSRA if necessary.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind N at 5-10 kts, becoming E. SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE at 10-15 kts MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.