textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence increasing for first winter storm of the season Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Snow, wind, and sub-freezing temperatures will result in difficult travel conditions.

- Corridor of heaviest snow has steadied north of I-94, with several inches possible across portions of central Minnesota.

- Looking ahead, much colder with additional snow chances later this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Today through Wednesday...A potent storm is expected to intensify as it moves across the area on Tuesday. As this storm strengthens, rain will change over to snow, and northerly winds will increase. The worst conditions will spread from west to east, Tuesday evening and overnight, with travel impacts lingering into Wednesday.

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Douglas, Todd, Morrison, Mille Lacs, and Kanabec where confidence has increased in heavy snow and strong winds leading to blowing snow. A Winter Storm Watch remains for Stevens, Pope, Stearns, and Benton counties, where confidence is not high enough yet to upgrade to a warning. Expect at least Advisory level impacts for these counties. Areas south and east of the Watch and Warnings will still have travel impacts even though snow amounts won't be as high. A broad Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to cover potential for a few inches of snowfall and blowing snow concerns. Additionally, a Wind Advisory has been issued for portions of southwest and south-central Minnesota where less snowfall is expected, but strong winds will still develop. Isolated impacts from blowing snow will be possible within the Wind Advisory.

The system that will bring a significant change in the weather is currently located over the Idaho Panhandle, on the northern edge of a strong upper level jet. There is a large strip of positive vorticity extending upstream along the coast of British Columbia, and over the next 24 hours, this strip of positive vorticity is going to congeal into a compact upper level shortwave trough. The positive vorticity advection and height falls ahead of this trough will lead to significant upper level forcing for ascent, as evident by the surface low dropping from 1007mb this evening, into the upper 990s by Tuesday evening. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a TROWAL will develop northwest of this surface low, with heavy snowfall expected. Meanwhile, northerly winds will increase with gusts of 40 to 45 mph. The combination of falling snow and strong win will lead to low visibility. Lastly, temperatures will start out warm, which should allow for some melting snow early, but cold air advection and sub-freezing temperatures should lead to accumulating snow fairly quickly after it changes over from rain to snow. Overnight temperatures will continue to fall, and by Wednesday morning areas in western Minnesota will be near 20 degrees, with mid- 20s elsewhere. The concern is that any untreated surfaces will freeze, leading to slippery roads and slow winter travel conditions lasting through Wednesday morning, well after the snow has ended. Fortunately highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 20s, so the main roads should recover quickly.

Thursday through the Weekend... Thursday could still be breezy to start the day, with gusts up to 25 mph, though the pressure gradient will loosen as the surface low continues into eastern Canada. Persistent northwest winds will keep us cold for several days. Highs will remain in the low to mid 20s, with lows in the teens each morning. Friday morning looks to be the coldest with the NBM suggesting single digits for much of western and into central Minnesota. Feels like temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below air temperatures when winds pick up during the afternoon, especially on Thursday while winds are still breezy. Several long range models show that the region remains primed for additional activity through the weekend and into the early part of next week. The upper level pattern exhibits a positive tilted trough extending from central Canada all the way down towards southern California. Several lows could form off of the Rockies and track through the central US. There is uncertainty in where those systems would track, though there is increasing signal for snow across portions of southern Minnesota Friday into Saturday (30-50% PoPs). The latest NBM has at least 15-35 percent PoPs starting Friday evening and lasting all the way through Monday, which seems reasonable until we can hone in with higher confidence when and where any systems develop.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Little bit of a messy start to the 24/18z TAF set due to such variety in cloud cover, particularly ceilings. Visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover across all 7 TAF sites (least at AXN) but the ceilings are lowest over eastern/southern MN into western WI, such that IFR conditions are in place, with conditions improving over central-western MN. Overall, ceilings will be maintained from tonight onward for all sites with mainly MVFR tonight followed by IFR conditions tomorrow, particularly as precipitation sets in. Precip will start out as rain for all sites overnight through tomorrow, then the only site which transitions to -SN prior to 18z tomorrow is AXN. However, going beyond 18z tomorrow, particularly into Tuesday evening, sites from west to east will see the steady transition from -RA to -SN but this timing will be addressed in later TAFs. The other concern will be an appreciable uptick in wind speeds as the day progresses with the movement of the low/fronts across the region. After light/variable winds through the early morning hours, winds will increase from the N to NW to speeds around 13g22kt by mid-to-late day tomorrow.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings at the start to remain in place through late Tuesday morning then will drop to IFR levels for the remainder of the day. May see ceilings come up to around 2 kft this evening through tonight before dropping back under. Precipitation likely to start around 18z but could have some reportable -SHRA prior to 18z. Rainfall is expected to then become steady Tuesday afternoon-evening with visibility dropping below 6sm. Light/variable winds through the overnight hours will have a negligible impact on runway configuration but with winds increasing in speed from the NW, a swap to the 30s looks to be in the cards from late Tuesday morning onward.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/IFR ceilings. -SHSN early. Wind NW 15-25G30-35kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts. FRI...VFR. MVFR ceilings with -SN possible late. Wind NW to NE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Watch Tuesday morning for Douglas-Todd. Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Douglas-Todd. Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for Pope-Stevens. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for Benton-Stearns. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for Anoka-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-Isanti- McLeod-Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Washington-Wright. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker- Renville-Swift. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet- Redwood-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for Barron-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.