textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers continue today and tonight.

- More rain chances over the next week with the best chance coming on Tuesday.

- Near to above normal temperatures favored into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Rest of Today to Monday.... Rain will continue to advance north this afternoon into the evening thanks to persistent southerly flow along the axis of the trough aloft. Coverage of these showers will decrease through the afternoon into the evening hours. Eventually expecting some more pop up isolated showers across mainly southern Minnesota this evening into tonight if a LLJ can develop. There is just enough instability present for some isolated lightning as well across Minnesota south of the Twin Cities metro. By daytime tomorrow this trough will be mostly to our east providing for a dry day. With cloud cover expected to hold throughout the night temperatures will not be able to fall much as the clouds limit the radiational cooling. Clouds should clear from west to east on Sunday which will allow for some additional daytime heating across parts of western Minnesota where temperatures look likely to break the 70 degree mark. Upper 60s more likely to the east as cloud cover holds much of the day. Southerly flow and WAA as a high is off to our east on Monday will provide for fairly widespread highs breaking into the lower 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday... The next shortwave trough moves through the Northern Plain and Upper Midwest Monday night into Tuesday. Rain will be expected along and in front of the surface front associated with this wave aloft. Timing of this frontal passage still varies between deterministic models and their ensemble membership. What looks likely with this is widespread rain, mainly on Tuesday. What remains less certain is the potential for heavy rainfall and the exact timing for the frontal passage. Overall dynamics remain better to our north and south where there is greater agreement in ensemble members QPF. There remain some solutions that would extend this higher QPF into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but there is much more spread. A lot of this has to do with the timing of when frontal passage occurs and what environment builds ahead of FROPA. As this event moves from the long term into the short term period we should start to get a better idea on these finer details on the forecast. With rain forecast and therefore evaporative cooling temperatures look slightly cooler on Tuesday compared to Monday, but continued WAA for much of the day will keep temperatures on the slightly warmer side of normal in the upper 60s.

Rest of the week... Past Tuesday's system the ensembles start to scatter a lot more with respect to QPF. Across the global deterministic models there is agreement in the jet stream being across southern Canada to our north. This keeps us on the warmer side and temperatures look to remain near to above normal for much of the remainder of the week. The other side to this is more zonal flow at 500 mb which means rain chances will be more dependent on smaller scale features rather than large synoptic troughs. This is part of why we see such scattered QPF data in the ensemble members for this period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 720 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Low stratus persists through the period with ceilings lowering through the overnight hours. LIFR ceilings look possible across west-central Minnesota while ceilings will hover near the IFR/MVFR threshold across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, excepting EAU where ceilings should barely remain VFR. Drizzle & mist also develops overnight with the lowest visibility expected across western Minnesota where visibility below 1SM is likely at times tomorrow morning. Mainly MVFR to VFR visibility is expected elsewhere.

Southeast winds diminish this evening with speeds remaining below 5 kts through the rest of the period. Winds remain generally southeasterly to southerly through tomorrow morning, becoming more variable through the afternoon.

KMSP...Expect the worst ceiling & visibility impacts to remain west of the terminal overnight through tomorrow morning. Generally expect low MVFR ceilings overnight along with some patchy drizzle/mist. best chance for lower IFR ceilings & MVFR visibility would be during the morning (6-10 AM).

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. WED...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S to SE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.