textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm temperatures continue this afternoon with record highs expected. A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to western and central Minnesota Monday, with much cooler air arriving area wide by Tuesday.

- The next chance for widespread precip arrives Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A nearly stationary front is located from near Brainerd to Willmar and Canby at 2 PM. Temperatures have risen back into the 80s east of the front, with 70s to the west. Some readings across southern MN are approaching 90. STC and EAU are within a few degrees of breaking their record highs and MSP has already broke the record high of 85 with 86 around 145 PM. Highs late this afternoon will be about 3 or 4 degrees warmer than current readings.

The front will very slowly sink south tonight and become stationary again Monday from southwest MN to northwest WI. A few weak areas of low pressure will track along the front late tonight and Monday. Mid and high level clouds will increase this evening, but no precipitation is expected through tonight. As the main low approaches from the southwest, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop along and north of the front in the afternoon. Early day cloudiness is expected to decrease some during the morning, allowing for sufficient heating. The boundary layer will remain quite dry and temperatures aloft will be warm, which should limit coverage of any development. The temperature contract along the front won't be as impressive as today across the Dakotas, but it will be noticeably cooler north with highs in the 70s vs 80s to the south. The low will track across southeast MN Monday evening when the front will clear the area to the south. Highs by Tuesday will range from the 50s across northern and west central MN, to upper 60s across southern MN.

A large trough and upper low over the Rockies midweek will track east Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile, another trough will be diving southeast across the Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday. There remains a large range of solutions how these two features will interact, but the trend has been toward a drier forecast with phasing occurring east of the region. Even cooler air will follow through Saturday. Widespread 20s and 30s for lows Friday night may end the growing season for many. Another warming trend will follow Sunday and into early next week with highs returning back into the 60s and perhaps 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A few high clouds today will give way to increasing mid level clouds tonight. A few MVFR level lower clouds may develop behind a cold front tonight and early Monday across western MN. The front will stall along a line from RWF to MSP and RNH while a low pressure center tracks along it Monday afternoon. South winds will prevail south of the front and easterly winds will prevail north of it. Variable winds are expected along along the front as it makes slight shifts north and south throughout the day.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE bcmg W 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.