textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow Saturday morning south of I-94 with the heaviest snow across southern Minnesota, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

- Another warm day today before a much colder weekend, then warming again next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Today and Tomorrow... One more warmer day today before a dry cold frontal passage brings this warmup to an end. Initial continued warm air advection will help Friday get up to temperatures around what we saw yesterday. As the cold air starts to advect in behind the cold front cooling temperatures in the lower atmosphere will allow greater mixing to occur and gusty winds are expected. This cold air advection will continue into the overnight with lows much colder in the 8 to 18 range (central MN to southern MN). These cooler temperatures will be key to the next round of snow moving in on Saturday morning. With support from a jet streak aloft to provide some broad forcing snow is expected generally to the south of I-94. What stands out in this forecast are the possible snow ratios. With much of the DGZ well saturated over a significant depth snow ratios could easily top 20:1 due to favorable dendritic growth. What is challenging about this event though, is an almost bimodal split in the model guidance. There is one version keeping the main snow band more along the Minnesota/Iowa border and another taking it farther north from between Mankato and the southern Twin Cities metro. The area that seems most likely is between these two in and around the Mankato area and to the southeast. Due to this area having higher confidence, in these heavier snow rates occurring, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. As more data comes in the advisory area will likely need to be tweaked to cover more of the area where the heavier snow will fall. This advisory is targeting the area where these deep DGZ areas could provide for inch per hour snow rates for a few hours on Saturday morning into afternoon. Thankfully the forcing associated with this snow does not linger long and it should move through fairly quickly and not linger through much of the day like some snow systems do. Continued cold air advection will bring temperatures down into the 0 to 6 range Saturday night.

Sunday into next week... Some additional snow is possible on Sunday as the other end of the jet streak moves overhead. Less impressive forcing and less DGZ depth is less favorable, so not as much of a snow chance. The cold air advection comes to an end Sunday as the northerly winds shift to the west. This starts a warming trend that continues into the middle of the week. A zonal flow pattern appears most likely to start the week with quieter weather. However the Canadian deterministic and ensemble systems differ from the GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/ENS with a Tuesday shortwave providing for a rain/snow chance. The more likely chance for precipitation comes late next week where there is more widespread agreement in the global ensemble systems. In the global deterministic models they all have the same system, but each model has a different temporal solution with Thursday for the Canadian, Friday for the GFS, and Saturday for the ECMWF. So fairly good confidence of an Upper Midwest system, just will need to get some more data as we get closer to have the solutions start to converge on a time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1109 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

The main story for the TAF is gusty winds early on as high as 30kts weakening quickly after 00z with gusts absent by 04-06z. We start out from 270-300 and shift towards 350-020 by the end of the period, with speeds at or below 10kts after 06z. Later in the period we go from FEW/SCT250 to BKN050-080 as -SN approaches from the west, becoming prevailing -SN for most sites. There is still significant uncertainty in the placement of the anticipated heavy snow band, and the current TAF reflects each site outside of this heavy band which could drop visibility below 1/4sm resulting in a few hours of IFR/LIFR. Future TAFs and further guidance would hopefully allow us to narrow down the most likely sites for this drop, which right now would be RWF/MKT however the guidance trend has been to the north over the last 12-18 hours.

KMSP...Winds are the story early on as mentioned above, with -SN possible as early as 12z becoming likely by 15z. 2SM for general vsby once snow arrives is fairly certain, however a period of 1/4sm/LIFR is possible depending on where the heavy snow band sets up. The most likely location is still south of MSP favoring RWF/MKT, however with recent guidance trending northwards, there is still a non-zero chance the heaviest band ends up here. As of right now in terms of percentage, I would place it from 10-15 percent confidence in terms of reaching MSP compared to less than 5 percent yesterday at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, sl chc -SN/MVFR. Wind NE to SE 5kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for Blue Earth-Brown-Freeborn-Le Sueur-Nicollet-Steele-Waseca. WI...None.