textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming, with temperatures peaking today near 40F.

- Mixed precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday. Colder temperatures to follow on Thursday. Flash freeze possible.

- Light snow possible Thursday afternoon post-frontal passage. Minor accumulations up to half an inch are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Get ready for the nicest day in a while! Winds increase out of the south as a surface low moves east across central Canada. Forecast soundings highlight a strong temperature inversion that sets up across the region, so it'll be a question of how much vertical mixing can develop. There will be 30+ mph winds just 1000 feet up as the shortwave swings through, so more efficient mixing would lead to a breezier day. The latest NBM suggests that the inversion is a bit too strong to efficiently mix down these stronger winds, which seems most reasonable. Though expect the potential for breezier winds. Neighboring offices to our south, who got in on the surge of warm air yesterday, pointed out that temperatures landed on the high end of guidance. Because of this, we have leaned warmer for today, with widespread highs near or just above 40F. Again, part of this will depend on how efficiently we can mix down the warmer temperatures just above the surface as well.

Temperatures remain mild through Thursday morning until a strong shortwave and associated cold front move through. A transition from light rain Wednesday PM to a wintry mix overnight and eventually all snow by Thursday afternoon. Overall QPF amounts remain light, with only around a tenth or so expected. There is a low chance for light drizzle or freezing drizzle during the transition period overnight if cloud ice becomes limited aloft, so we have introduced mention of that in the latest forecast package. The main concern with this period will be the potential for a flash freeze scenario on Thursday. Temperatures and dewpoints will creep a few degrees above freezing overnight Wednesday into Thursday, leading to a period of snow melt. The front then moves through late Thursday morning, with temperatures quickly crashing behind it. If it helps picture things, the high for Thursday will likely occur at midnight and the low at 11:59PM -- temperatures will basically be on a downward trend the entire day. Lows could very likely be widespread below zero by Friday morning, with parts of central Minnesota as low as -10 to - 15F.

The arctic blast does not stick around as long as our previous cold stretch with winds shifting back out of the south Friday. An second wave could bring light snow to the region Friday night, though the main impacts will across northern Minnesota. The rest of the forecast period shows no major change to the pattern with temperatures near normal and limited chances for precipitation outside of any additional kinks in the flow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

South winds and a broken deck of mid-level clouds continue to increase this morning. Winds will become westerly and increase further with gusts to 20+ kts likely at all sites today, strongest in western Minnesota. Stronger winds aloft will create some wind shear through early this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the period, with the potential for SCT high end MVFR clouds late tonight.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR to MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. THU...MVFR. Wind S early, bcmg NW 15-20G30kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.