textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record high temperatures today and tomorrow.

- Hot and windy conditions today will provide for an elevated fire weather risk, especially in western Minnesota.

- Next week turns cooler and more seasonable with the greatest rain chances on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

This weekend... A low over far southern Saskatchewan near the international border will slowly track east towards Ontario this weekend. This has us in the warm sector of this low and continued WAA aloft will help lift us into the 80s and maybe even some lower 90s for highs today. This will continue into Sunday with more WAA until the cold front associated with this low passes through late Sunday into early Monday. Areas that reach the diurnal maximum temperature before frontal passage on Sunday (generally all but parts of western Minnesota) could see highs near or above the current records. Our current forecast has today falling short of record highs, but tomorrow breaking record highs. Today is forecast to be hotter, but tomorrow has lower records that are easier to break. For the 10th, the records are: MSP (90 in 1928), STC (88 in 1928), and EAU (88 in 1928). For the 11th, the records are: MSP (85 in 2015), STC (83 in 2015), and EAU (85 in 1930).

All this warmth will also promote ample mixing today which will provide for a gusty late morning into early evening. The gusts will be highest along the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota. In addition we will warm enough today for RH values to fall into the 30s with some upper 20s possible in western Minnesota. This will provide for elevated fire weather concerns in western Minnesota. Thankfully we are still early enough in the fall that vegetation has not dried out and fuels are not as available as they will be later in the season. So the biggest fire risk will be agriculture related where crops have been dried out for harvesting. Due to this we are not expecting to issue a Red Flag Warning unless RH values come in much lower than expected.

Next week... Monday will see temperatures come down from the weekend's near record highs as we move into the post-frontal air mass. There could also be some showers Monday afternoon as a very subtle shortwave feature should move across North Dakota into northern Minnesota. What rain chances occur with this are best to our north, but parts of central Minnesota could also see some light rain with this. Overall temperatures look to stay near normal over the week ahead of the next system passing through on Thursday. Behind this system temperature look to be below normal with highs only in the mid 50s. How good of a chance for rain we have though varies between the global deterministic models. The evolution of the upper air pattern has two paths with one ejecting the trough over the Upper Midwest (this gives us a good chance for a soaking rain) and the other keeps more of a cut off low over the western CONUS (this would keep us on the dry side). There is also a greater spread the the ensemble solutions than we saw 24 hours ago. So continued confidence in colder more fall like air, but lower confidence in Thursday's rain chance.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

South-southwesterly LLWS of 40-45 knots will persist over most terminals for the first few hours of the TAF period before surface winds increase. Southerly surface winds will increase into this afternoon with sustained values ranging from 15-20 knots while gusts reach 25-35 knots (strongest in western MN). Winds slow slightly this evening allowing south-southwesterly LLWS of 45-50 knots to return again. This LLWS will last through Saturday night. VFR conditions expected with mostly clear skies.

KMSP...South-southwesterly LLWS of 45 knots continues until 16z before southerly surface winds strongly increase. Sustained values will be around 18 knots while gusts reach 27-32 knots into this evening. The LLWS returns this evening through tonight as surface winds steadily slow to just over 10 knots by 12z Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20kts. MON...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind N 10G20kts. TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.