textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence increasing in a band of accumulating snow across southern MN Saturday morning. Slow travel conditions are likely.

- Warmer today & Friday (40s), sub-freezing this weekend (20s), followed by a rebound into the 30s/40s next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

WARMER TODAY & TOMORROW...Fairly quiet start to Thursday, as satellite reveals a band of mid-level stratus extending from roughly Brained south to Fairmont at this hour. The stratus is located within a region of warm advection tied to a subtle mid-level wave within the NW flow regime. Stratus is forecast to continue moving eastward through daybreak and it's possible that a few flurries develop given the presence of a compact ~110kt jetstreak aloft. Not anticipating much in the way of accumulation and the best chance to see a few flakes fly will be across western WI. Skies will clear from west to east after daybreak and should set the stage for a nice late-Feburary day. Over the next ~36 hours, a strong surface cyclone is forecast to develop across southern Canada. Our forecast area will be positioned in the warm sector well to the south of the low as it tracks east into Ontario. Mild westerly flow will advect a thermal ridge (characterized by 925mb temps of +3-7C) overhead today & tomorrow. As a result, surface highs are forecast to surge into the 40s for most locations both afternoons and communities southwest of the MN River will have a real shot of warming into the 50s each day. We'll add strong westerly winds into the picture tomorrow afternoon and evening as the surface low deepens to lower 980s mb north of the Great Lakes. 30-35mph gusts appear likely and forecast soundings suggest locations across central MN may observe gusts closer to 40mph.

BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY...The very dynamic cyclone will send a trailing cold front southward across the forecast area Friday evening into early Saturday. Strong cold air advection will support crashing temperatures that will plummet into the single digits and lower teens by Saturday morning. The cold frontal passage itself will be dry, however precipitation potential will increase shortly thereafter as a NW to SE oriented jetstreak translates southeast along the remnant baroclinic zone set to span from MT to IA. By Saturday at 12z, guidance captures an expansive high pressure over southern Canada and a region of warm advection across the central Plains into the frontal boundary. A sprawled out narrow band of accumulating snow driven by frontogenesis in the 850/700mb layers is forecast to extend from the Dakotas through southern MN. As is usually the case in these scenarios, there are run-to-run shifts in latitudinal position of the snow band largely due to the modeled strength of the surface high to the north. The one trend that has been very consistent is that the band is likely to setup south of I-94 and the highest snow probabilities exist closer to I-90. Forecast soundings between the MN River and I-90 on Saturday morning show a rather impressive DGZ spanning roughly 5k feet in tandem with an inversion indicative of the mid-level frontogenic circulation. These factors are supportive of more efficient and potentially heavier snowfall rates within the band. General QPF consensus amongst the ensembles is somewhere between 0.1-0.25" which translates to a 1-3" snowfall. This is the type of scenario that will likely feature a localized band of the heaviest amounts and a larger footprint of light snow accumulation on either side. Of note, the machine learning solution from the AIFS comes in a bit drier, but does maintain a similar positioning of the band as advertised by the physical models. Putting the pieces together, there is growing support for a band of accumulating snow across southern MN Saturday morning. Given the potential for heavier snowfall rates and the much colder temperatures at onset, slick or hazardous travel conditions may develop. Our latest forecast from the NBM feature a broad swath of 30-50 PoPs along and south of I-94. PoPs will likely undergo increases during upcoming forecast shifts as confidence in the placement of the snow axis increases.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...The remainder of the weekend will run mostly dry as high pressure drifts over the Upper Midwest. Ensembles capture a developing weather system across the central Plains Sunday afternoon and it's possible precipitation on the northern periphery of the system may clip portion of SW MN. However, the aforementioned high pressure will largely work to suppress the track of the system to the south across the Ohio Valley. An active northern stream storm track north of the International Border will support warmer air advecting into the Upper Midwest next week. Surface highs will climb back above freezing on Monday and continue warming well into the 40s Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday. As referenced in the previous discussion, extended guidance is quite active and indicates multiple chances for precipitation through the first third of March. While it's far too soon to lock into any specifics, the evolution of longwave troughing and the advection of ample Gulf moisture into the central CONUS will bear watching. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 449 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period, but patchy stratus this morning could lead to ceilings heights near MVFR levels across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Southerly winds this morning become westerly by the afternoon, with speeds increasing to around 10 kts. Wind speeds diminish after sunset but gust return early Friday morning across west-central Minnesota.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, chc MVFR cigs. Wind N 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.