textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning: Howling northwesterly winds are forecast to gust upwards of 60-65 mph across much of western and southern MN tonight into tomorrow morning. Gusts of 45-55 mph expected elsewhere. Isolated power outages are possible!

- A mix of rain and snow this evening will produce an inch or less of accumulation across most of the region. Portions of Rusk county may observe 3-5".

- Major Winter Storm this Weekend: Heavy accumulating snow and strong winds will create very hazardous travel conditions Saturday evening through Sunday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

POTENT CLIPPER THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY...Our active weather pattern continues. Broad upper-level troughing moves over extreme northern MN today and on its western periphery, has developed a 1000mb sfc low that is currently over eastern Montana into the Dakotas. This low is forecast to strengthen to ~985mb by the time it reaches MN/WI tonight. Therefore, our main concern for the next 18-24 hours will first be p-types followed by very strong synoptically forced wind gusts. A mix of rain and snow moves in across western Minnesota this afternoon. As we begin to lose surface heating this evening, areas across east- central MN into western WI can expect a rain/snow mix to phase into all snow overnight. Snow accumulations will not amount to much except for Rusk County where approximately 3 to 5" of snow is expected to fall by tomorrow morning, hence the current Winter Weather Advisory in effect there.

HIGH WIND WARNING...As the bulk of precip begins to wrap up, strong wind gusts will follow quickly in tow. Currently, western Minnesota this afternoon has gusts reaching the upper 20s to low 30mph range but this will only continue to increase and spread farther eastward tonight. It is expected that widespread sustained winds ranging from 25 to 40 mph with gusts as high as 60 to 65 mph will occur. The strongest winds should exist across western and central MN where a High Wind Warning remains in effect. Remaining areas across eastern MN and western WI are under a Wind Advisory. Regardless, damaging winds can blow trees and power lines down causing potential outages and make travel for high profile vehicles difficult. An additional note is the potential for wrap around precip on the backside of this low combined with the high winds. Before sunrise tomorrow, there is increasing potential for falling blowing snow that could reduce visibility and slippery travel conditions across portions of western MN. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has was issued for tonight until 7 AM tomorrow morning.

POTENTIAL INCREASING IN A MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND

Winds will relax Friday evening as the potent clipper departs to the east across the Great Lakes. Should have a quiet period of weather through the night as high pressure settles across the region. By daybreak Saturday, focus will quickly shift to an incoming major winter storm system that aims to produce heavy snow accumulations and significant travel impacts Saturday evening - early Monday.

FEATURES DRIVING THE WINTER STORM...The early beginnings of the anticipated winter storm can be seen via water vapor satellite over the Gulf of Alaska, where a subtle shortwave is currently circulating. To the south of the circulation, water vapor imagery captures a ribbon of rich Pacific moisture flowing into the the northwestern portions of the CONUS. The shortwave is progged to deepen as is slides southeast ahead of a ~160kt upper jet over western CONUS and will spawn a lee surface low on the order of lower 990s mb in the vicinity of western NE by Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, the upper level wave will have evolved into a well defined longwave trough and is progged to continue to strengthen taking on a closed negative tilt appearance over the Great Lakes. The associated surface low is forecast to track east from NE through IA into IL, before rapidly deepening into a strong 970s mb surface low as it cuts northeast and occludes over northern Michigan. As the expected evolution unfolds, a fetch of Gulf moisture will stream north and pair with the Pacific component to set the stage for a rather remarkable QPF footprint across the upper midwest. Ensemble means suggest 1-1.5" of QPF across southern MN and western WI! Given our forecast areas position to the north of the surface low, would anticipate the majority of precipitation falling in the snow bin, with only a short period where a rain/snow mix may occur at precipitation onset near I-90 Saturday afternoon/evening.

PRECIPITATION TIMING AND RATES...Guidance depicts an initial band of snow developing along a remnant baroclinic zone set to span from southeastern MT to northern IA Saturday morning. Could see some light snow out of this band across southwestern MN, though the lack of synoptic forcing and dry air concerns should keep this a lower impact timeframe. Following a quiet period during the morning/start of the afternoon on Saturday, mid-level warm air advection will aid in top down saturation which will support the arrival of our longer duration snow chances. Snowfall rates will increase Saturday night as a large warm advective snow shield expands across the forecast area. The most intense snowfall rates are forecast within a band of heavy deformation precipitation that will setup early Sunday, as the surface low slides to the south of the IA/MN border. Heavy snowfall rates then continue into Sunday morning before starting to decrease from west to east through the afternoon and evening as the system departs to the east. Given the dynamic nature of the deformation band of snowfall, we anticipate that peak snowfall rates will run between 1-2"+/hr early Sunday.

WINTER STORM WATCH AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...The extremely impressive QPF footprint, longer duration nature of the snowfall, and heavier rates have contributed to incredible snowfall output across the model suite. We continue to try to fine tune the details in snowfall expectations and lean on physical and machine learning ensemble means rather than subscribing to any one deterministic solution. Our forecast SLR's generally range between 10:1-15:1. If you take the QPF referenced above and multiply by these SLR's you get quite the snowfall range! A previous local study conducted at WFO MPX found that SLR's are often capped around ~10:1 or so when heavy 6-hr QPF is in play. In addition, wind speeds will increase Sunday, likely fracturing dendrites in some fashion (though Sunday's cold advection regime should support ratios climbing closer to the 15-16:1 range Sunday afternoon). Even when you factor in some of the negating factors for the highest SLR scenario, we're still looking at quite the swath of heavy snowfall across our forecast locale. We've collaborated with neighboring offices to issue a Winter Storm Watch that goes into effect Saturday evening and continues through Monday morning. NBM's snow potential output illustrates at least a 70% chance of 6" of snow for all communities across the Watch box. Communities across southern MN and western wisconsin currently have ~60% chance of exceeding 12" of snow. A localized band of heavier snowfall amounts (perhaps as much as 18" or so!) will likely setup from SE MN into WI, as the surface low begins to pivot. It's going to take a few more forecast cycles to dial in the exact track of the system and position of the heaviest band, but again current trends would point towards SE MN into WI.

As with any winter storm system, the large scale pieces can seem clear a few days out, but the evolution of large scale features can result in shifts. We'll continue to monitor shifts, but do have increased confidence in the track/placement of the overall snow swath given support from the AIFS/machine learning solutions.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...Strong northeasterly winds will gust upwards of 35-45 mph Sunday. The winds will combine with falling and blowing snow to create periods of blizzard conditions across portions of the region. Some questions remain on how "mobile" fresh snow will be given the anticipated wetter dendrite character, though with the increasing magnitude of the wind fields feel comfortable at least messaging periods of white-out conditions. Given the current track of the storm, would favor southern MN/I-90 and I-35 south of the Twin Cities as the most likely locations to observe blizzard conditions. As such, travel conditions are likely to become dangerous and travelers should consider alternate plans.

Monday into Next Week...The major winter storm will exit over the Great Lakes by the start of Monday. Northwesterly winds will remain elevated into Monday, so it's likely that blowing snow will concerns will continue across rural areas. Afternoon highs will fall back into the 20s in the wake of the system and remain on the cooler side early next week. Large scale ridge expands east through the middle of next week, which results in the NBM warming back into the 30s on Wednesday and the 40s on Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Winds are slowly starting to come up early this afternoon with gusts of 20-25kts out of the south. Some returns are showing up on radar, but nothing is reaching the ground just yet. The rain showers are making their way eastward from the Dakotas and should reach our western terminals by 21-22z with some snow/ice pellets mixing in over time. MVFR visibilities are likely with the precip with cigs following after 00z.

Winds will continue to increase and turn southwesterly to northwesterly between 05-07z. Winds are expected to be sustained around 25kts with gusts of 45-55kts. These strong gusts will continue into Friday morning before slowly diminishing to around 35-45kts by the end of the period from west to east. Cigs are expected to remain MVFR through the end of the period, but our western/northernmost sites could come back to VFR just before 18z.

KMSP...While the main forecast concern are the high winds, some precip impacts are possible this evening. May need to do some adjusting in regards to the wx/vis, but not anticipating IFR conditions. Kept LLWS mention for this evening with a very strong jet aloft. Did increase gusts early Friday morning to around 50kts. Best window for highest wind gusts is sometime between 08-12z. VFR cigs return by Friday afternoon with winds down to 25-30kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR likely, chc IFR/-SN late day. Heavy snow overnight. Wind SE 5-10kts increasing to 10-15kts. SUN...IFR with SN, heavy at times. Wind NE 15-20G25-35kts bcmg NW. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet- Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd- Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday for Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker-Pope- Renville-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Wright. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for Anoka-Benton-Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur- Morrison-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Steele-Washington- Wright. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott- Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca- Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-St. Croix. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce- Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for Rusk.