textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

-Gusty south winds today. Winds gusts over 40 mph across southwest Minnesota, 25-35 mph elsewhere.

-Scattered rain showers this afternoon & evening, along with a few rumbles of thunder. Most locations will see rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.25"

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Gusty winds & scattered rain showers are in store today associated with a cold front moving through the region. Southerly winds will quickly increase after sunrise with the strongest winds peaking over 40 mph across southwest Minnesota this morning. Elsewhere, gusts of 25-35 mph are expected from mid-morning into late afternoon. The gusty winds could lead to overachieving temperatures today where deeper mixing & some compressional warming occurs immediately ahead of the cold front his afternoon. Could see highs reach the low 70s across southwest Minnesota where the aforementioned strongest winds will occur, while temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s elsewhere.

A few isolated showers are possible across southern Minnesota this morning, but the main band of rain will develop across western Minnesota during the early to mid- afternoon, spreading into eastern Minnesota 7 western Wisconsin through the late afternoon & evening. Rainfall amounts will be light, generally 0.1-0.25", but some locally heavier downpours could occur with the strongest showers. Just enough instability looks to be present this afternoon to generate a few rumbles of thunder, but widespread thunderstorms are not expected. The rainfall ends from west to east through the late afternoon 7 evening with most of the area dry by 10 PM.

Cooler & dry weather returns behind the front Sunday through Monday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s. Sunday night will be the coolest period with lows falling into the mid 30s across portions of easst-central Minnesota & western Wisconsin, bringing the potential for patchy frost in rural low-lying areas. Otherwise, the forecast remains quiet through next week as the main storm track stays north of the region. Temperatures warm back above normal Tuesday through the end of the week, with highs generally in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 653 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Mainly VFR conditions. The main change from the previous forecast was an earlier timing in the precipitation today, and adding thunder at KAXN.

For this morning, southerly winds will increase after sunset, with gusts near 25 kts expected at times. A few light rain showers will move through, with more likely chance being the late morning or early afternoon.

This system was producing lightning in the Dakotas, so did add some thunder at KAXN, but after that the instability decreases so kept thunder out of the TAFs at the remaining sites.

Cloud bases should stay above 3000 ft with the rain showers, but the once concern could be gusty winds.

KMSP... Went with VFR visibility with any morning showers that develop. After a short break, another round will move through later this afternoon. There is a small chance for thunder, but for now did not include a mention in the TAFS.

Winds will be southeast, and eventually south/southwest today, but gusts should stay below 30 kts. later this evening the gusts will decrease and winds will become northwest.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.