textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- This Evening, the flooding thread has trended down, but thunderstorms with heavy rain are still possible between 5pm and 8pm for a few counties along I-90.

- Looking ahead, seasonable temperatures with mainly dry conditions expected for the Sunday through next work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Early afternoon satellite and radar imagery showed widespread clouds and rain across the region. However there was no lightning as instability remained to the south. The lack of lightning and deep convection meant rainfall rates were only about 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour. This kept the flood threat low across most of the region.

The lone exception was down along I-90, where there is still a chance for some convection and heavier rainfall rates to develop this evening. The flood threat has trended down, but did continue with the Flood Watch since there is a potential for storms.

Overnight, the steady rain will gradually end, but the low clouds will continue into Saturday. Forecast soundings showed low level saturation and some omega, so did increase the chance for precipitation Saturday morning, and went with drizzle instead of rain. Winds will be out of the northeast at 10 to 15 mph, and temperatures will be in the low 60s making it feel like fall.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Looking ahead, mostly dry conditions are expected for next week. A boundary will lay out to the south across Iowa, and be the focus for showers and storms. Meanwhile upper level ridging will lead to a surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side to start the week. However, southerly winds start to return by the end of next week, which will bring in slightly warmer air, and small chances for rain across the west. Overall expect dry weather this coming week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A broad area of stratiform rain currently is placed from west- central MN into western WI and southeastern MN. Visibilities of 1.5-3sm have periodically occurred during moderate rainfall as this rain has traveled east. VFR cigs over WI fall to MVFR and then IFR as one travels west into southwestern MN. Additional development of showers and thunderstorms will occur behind the initial activity this evening. Thunderstorms are most likely along the I-90 corridor and south so have kept a PROB30 for -TSRA at MKT in case a slight northward shift occurs. Conditions will fall to IFR/LIFR overnight as cigs fall well under 1000 feet. Rain will taper off overnight as it exits east, but mist/drizzle looks likely through most of Saturday morning judging by deeply saturated low-levels in forecast soundings. A slight improvement in conditions is expected by late Saturday morning. Easterly winds will gust to near 20 knots through this evening before slightly slowing and turning more northeasterly during Saturday morning.

KMSP...MVFR likely through this afternoon with brief visits to IFR expected during periods of heavier rainfall rates. Activity becomes more scattered and showery late this evening as cigs drop to IFR. Cigs will flirt with LIFR but don't have confidence to include this in the TAF at this time. Mist/drizzle will last well into Saturday morning before conditions slowly start improving. Northeasterly winds will gust to near 20 knots late Saturday morning into the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NE 10-20 kts. MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10G15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday morning for Freeborn. WI...None.