textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool & dry today into Friday

- Next chance for showers & thunderstorms comes Friday afternoon into Saturday.

- Warmer for the latter half of the Memorial Day weekend through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Clear skies & calm winds are resulting in a chilly night across much of the region, with areas of frost expected until sunrise. Recent rains have also resulted in some patchy shallow fog & mist to develop across west-central Minnesota, again expected to clear up after sunrise. Otherwise no weather concerns of note until later on Friday with seasonably cool temperatures in the 60s expected for the next few afternoons.

Our next chance for rain is expected Friday afternoon through Saturday as a shortwave trough digs along the US-Canada border. Enough instability will be present ahead of the system Friday afternoon & evening to likely generate some thunder, along with most of the rainfall from this system. Lighter rain showers will likely linger through saturday as the system exits the region off to the Great Lakes. Rainfall amounts Friday night look to be on the order of 0.5-1" across western Minnesota, decreasing to 0.1-0.25" across western Wisconsin.

The Memorial Day weekend gets off to a cool & cloudy start with some light showers/drizzle lingering through the day on Saturday & temperatures remaining in the low to mid 60s. Warmer & sunnier conditions are expected for the rest of the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s Sunday & mid 80s likely on Monday. We'll have to monitor the potential for a weak upper level disturbance bringing a chance for thunderstorms sometime Sunday night into Monday, but these chances look to mainly limited to southern Minnesota.

More summer-y conditions are expected for next week as ensemble guidance highlights multiple days with temperatures in the 80s, or around 10 degrees above normal for the end of May. No major systems or widespread chances for rain are expected.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Not much change since the previous TAF. Clear skies this morning with light and variable winds near 5kts for much of today. Some lingering MVFR/IFR fog will continue to mix out over the next hour or so which should briefly impact RWF and AXN. Few to Sct high- level clouds develop this afternoon but otherwise, should be nice day to take to the skies.

KMSP...Winds will be light at or about 5kts however from a directional viewpoint, a NW'ly wind component can be expected this morning prior to wind shifting easterly this around 00z. Then, becoming southeasterly by 12z tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. SAT...MVFR/-RA early. Wind E 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Brown- Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift- Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Polk- Rusk.