textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Big warmup arrives tomorrow through the remainder of the week.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow afternoon for western Wisconsin. A better chance for severe storms for much of south central Minnesota/western Wisconsin is expected Monday and possibly again on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

It's a cool and damp Saturday as scattered showers continue to slide eastward across Minnesota and Wisconsin. These showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will continue into the evening and overnight hours, especially for portions of western Wisconsin. A southwesterly LLJ will kick in this evening, sending a plume of Gulf moisture northward. Continued cloud cover and very strong WAA will allow temperatures to gradually increase overnight. A majority of the forecast area will likely be sitting with both temperatures and dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s by morning. We'll have to see how quickly clouds clear out Sunday, but it seems likely that highs will be some 30 degrees warmer than today in the upper 70s and low 80s. Winds will turn from the south to the west by the afternoon, which will work to lower dew points by 5 to 10 degrees for western Minnesota. There's a chance that portions of our far southwest see min RH values fall below 30% during the afternoon and evening with wind gusts approaching 30 MPH, but for now, it appears that the risk for elevated fire weather conditions will remain back across the Dakotas. To the east where Tds remain in the 60s, there is a question of whether any afternoon convection will be able to develop. A lot rides on the timing of a weak shortwave and how long morning showers and clouds stick around. Still, CAMs have CAPE values AOA 1500 J/kg and ample shear, so a stronger storm or two is a possibility, especially for western Wisconsin. SPC has a Marginal Risk in the SWODY2 that covers this threat.

A more favorable severe weather set up is still in the cards for Monday. A warm front will lift northward during the afternoon with PWATs increasing to around 1", which is around 200% of normal. Mid level lapse rates are impressive, but strong capping may limit storm development initially. There is a fair amount of spread in the guidance in how far northward the warm front will push, with the AIFS keeping southern Minnesota in the low to mid 60s and the RRFS taking upper 70s as far north as St. Cloud. All of this to say, there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Monday. Tuesday looks like a similar scenario, but likely even further south and east of our CWA. But again, some strong to severe storms can't be ruled out entirely at this point. The remainder of the week remains mild with temperatures in the 70s. We'll see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the work week. Looking ahead, a stronger system may be in the works for the weekend and I can't guarantee that all precip associated with this will fall as liquid...

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The initial push of showers is moving into WI, but the LLJ is due to arrive this evening. This is the reason for the WS in the TAFs, though leads to uncertainty on when we may have additional showers and storms fire in it late tonight and into Sunday morning. There has been a trend toward another round of storms developing around 10z from MKT up toward MSP that pushes into WI in the morning, so we'll be keeping on eye on that trend. In addition to this TS potential, there's a strong signal in the short term models of fog developing tonight in central MN, impacting STC and AXN in particular, so started trending those TAFs that way, though they may get worse that we have forecast. Going into Sunday morning, a dryslot will be moving east across MN, which will quickly clear out the low crud and send winds into a gusty southwest type.

KMSP...Next chance for TS will come around sunrise, with TS threat for MSP on Sunday ending by 15z. With a surface low going across northern MN Sunday afternoon, we'll have a favorable pressure gradient for a southwest cross-wind. Also, we'll have very deep mixing (possibly pushing 10k feet), so these will be very gusty cross winds, with gusts to 40 kts not out of the question given momentum transfer on BUFKIT from the NAM, GFS, and RAP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...AM VFR. PM -RA likely, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Wind NE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.