textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog and freezing fog are possible across the eastern half of Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin tonight.

- Temperatures warm above freezing tomorrow with low 40s possible across southwestern Minnesota.

- Snowfall chances for late this week remain possible across southeastern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin. Though, additional wobbles in the track are still possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Current radar does show one area of returns over Barron, Dunn, and Chippewa counties early this afternoon. Most stations in this area are reporting light rain as surface temperatures are just above freezing. But, RCX is reporting "Unknown Precip" with it's temperature at 32. A small amount of additional ice is possible for our northern WI counties into this afternoon so have opted to continue the Winter Weather Advisory here until 3 PM. A majority of the precip has moved to the east, though, and observed liquid amounts since last night are impressive for early January. Much of the Twin Cities into western WI has received 0.3-0.7" of liquid, which is already a good portion of our normal precip for the month of January. Now just imagine if it were all snow...

A weak disturbance could bring some light SN/FZDZ to west-central MN late this afternoon but the bigger concern for the next 48 hours will be cloud cover and visibility. The warm air mass will remain in place, helping melt whatever snow cover is left and favor cloudier skies. The increased moisture is evident in forecast soundings so have gone heavier with cloud cover through Wednesday evening. Where it remains cloudy, highs will struggle to exceed the mid 30s. But areas that do see sun (particularly southwestern MN) could see highs jump well into the 40s Wednesday. As for visibility, areas of patchy fog across the eastern half of MN and WI this afternoon should become more widespread and dense as we go through tonight. Another Dense Fog Advisory for tonight may be necessary in future updates. As lows drop into the 20s tonight, fog will likely turn into freezing fog and could make for slick travel conditions.

Mild temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 30s) will persist into Thursday before the first of two wintry storm systems impacts the Midwest Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Forecast models currently favor the surface low tracking from EAX to MKE, which should keep most of the precipitation to our southeast. However, models do pass QPF from the northwest quadrant of the low over southeastern MN and western WI. If precipitation occurs, it will likely start as rain Thursday evening before colder air is advected from the north changing precip over to a wintry mix and then eventually snow during Thursday night. Though, quite a bit low to mid-level dry air has been noted in forecast soundings across MN. Not expecting significant amounts of precipitation from this system but perhaps an inch of snow is possible for our southern and eastern counties by Friday morning.

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Friday (upper 20s to lower 30s) before more cold air arrives Friday night. Developing northerly flow on the backside of the second storm system will advect colder air into the Northern Plains from central Canada. The second storm system's track looks similar to the first's, likely even a little farther southeast into the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. But, this second system looks quite a bit stronger such that forecast models develop a more expansive precipitation shield. Currently have 30% to upwards of 50% PoPs across our southern and eastern CWA Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Snow should be the dominant precipitation type with ensembles favoring at least an inch across southeastern MN and into west-central WI. But, probabilities of at least 3" drop off significantly within nearly all of the ensembles as the heaviest snow is removed well off to our southeast. Will have to monitor this system for any potential changes but it doesn't seem like we're going to get a significant snow storm anytime soon. A slight cooldown is likely for Saturday before dry, mild weather commences for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

The bulk of the precipitation is done, though the back edge of our rain shield overnight will be clearing EAU over the next couple of hours. There's also a narrow band of precipitation moving across the eastern Dakotas and will make it into western MN. Forecast soundings show dry air between the precip generating clouds and stratus that may limit any of this to reaching the ground, but did add brief TEMPO precip groups to AXN/RWF to handle that threat. As for clouds/stratus, northwest winds we have now will weaken overnight, which will limit how far east the clearing makes it in MN. Current thinking is that the clearing will make it through RWF and AXN, but not any of our other airports. For eastern MN and WI, where we now have a water logged snowpack, this stratus will become a dense fog overnight, though it may not be quite as doom and gloom as what the HRRR has. Late Wednesday morning, southerly winds will help to finally clear this stratus out, with this period ending with just some mid level cloud cover floating around.

KMSP...With the water logged snowpack and seeing what we're seeing from RAP soundings, confidence is high in dense fog developing outside the urban core tonight. Where it's uncertain is just how low will the vis get within the heat island at MSP. At the very least, cigs will be under 500 feet to start the day on Wednesday, with VFR conditions not expected to return until between 15z and 18z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Chc -SN overnight. Wind N 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN late night. Wind NW 5-10 kts. SAT...MVFR. Chc IFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.