textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer, closer to normal, temperatures today and tomorrow with much hotter temperatures this weekend into next week.

- Overall low chances for rain/storms with the best chances Friday and Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

With the high pressure now moving into the Great Lakes our flow is shifting to the south which will increase WAA. This will start a gradual warming trend with highs up to around 80 today and the lower to mid 80s tomorrow. This is a notable increase from the lower to mid 70s we hit yesterday. Friday will start to see more moisture advection as well. This will help to develop a more unstable environment, but this is more focused across central Minnesota and north. Farther south will see see warmer mid levels which will limit instability. Friday will also see a shortwave move across the Canadian Prairies and with this path the main lift will be mostly to our north across North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Parts of central Minnesota could see the southern extent of these storms, but instability runs out quickly farther south.

Saturday will be the first of the hot days as a ridge builds in. This ridge looks to be the dominant pattern of the rest of the week. So the heat looks to return and stay for a while, which increasing the impact of heat stress. Much above normal temperatures look to be a lock for Sunday into early next week with 90 plus percent of the global ensemble members with high temperatures above normal. So the main forecast questions come down to how much above normal and how widespread will the heat be? So while above normal is high confidence, how high is where some spread still exists. A "cool" solution would see highs more in the 5 to 10 degrees above normal with the hot solutions pushing well above normal in the upper 90s to a few members pushing over 100. On the rain/storms side our second chance comes late Sunday into early Monday morning. The better signal in both global deterministic and ensemble solutions remains to our north and east. So we would once again we along the edge of the chances. Looking into next week, QPF in the ensembles get widely scattered with no clear precipitation signal. It is not a dry result so we could see something come together as we get closer.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Calm to light and variable winds overnight into the early morning. Winds will remain under 10 knots, but will pick up from calm in the late morning. VFR clear sky to mostly clear sky over the period. With the calm wind and clear sky setup we could see some mist or fog setup. Of the terminals the greatest chance would be RNH and EAU. Confidence was not high enough for inclusion in the TAFs, but this is where attention will be paid for possible amendments.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW to W 7-12 kts. SUN...VFR, -TSRA possible late. Wind S 7-12 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.