textproduct: Twin Cities
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Mostly dry conditions on Monday, scattered showers possible across southern MN.
- Drier conditions return this week with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
- Next chance for rain arrives Thursday.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
Crisp and cool nights can be expected starting Monday night/Tuesday morning and Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with forecast low temperatures dropping into the 40s areawide, with few areas dropping into the upper 30s. Otherwise, quiet and fair weather will persist through Wednesday with afternoon high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.
Wednesday night into Thursday, a weak cold front will move east across the Dakotas, resulting in low-end chances of rain across western MN. The next slug of moisture and associated upper level piece of energy will move north out of the southern and central High Plains and towards the Dakotas on Thursday. This feature will not offer too much in terms of impactful weather. However, it will allow DP temps to increase, especially across western MN where rain chances increase on Friday. Thereafter, the upper flow regime becomes more messy with discrepancies and differences between between run to run deterministic model guidance. That said, ensemble guidance has been fairly consistent, still hinting at drier conditions next weekend with near average to slightly above average temperatures for the end of September.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Radar shows showers in far southwestern Minnesota are struggling to make it further north early this morning, likely due to dry air in the mid levels. Biggest change for this TAF set was to remove/decrease -SHRA mentions for KRWF/KMKT. Cigs are borderline VFR/MVFR, thinking solid MVFR cigs will arrive mid/late morning for these sites. KMKT may bounce around in the near term, so added a TEMPO for this. Elsewhere, low end VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Winds are generally easterly at 10kts or less.
KMSP...Lowered cigs to MVFR for a few hours late this morning into early afternoon. As mentioned above, it'll be riding that annoying VFR/MVFR line, but felt confident enough to include the MVFR in the prevailing group. -SHRA will remain well to the south.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR, chc AM -SHRA. Wind SE 10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None. WI...None.
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