textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend through the end of the week with high temperatures reaching into the 80s.

- Rain chance tonight and again late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

One last cold morning this morning under high pressure which has given us clear skies and light winds. This has allowed ample radiational cooling with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s this morning. The cold air mass that was with us for the weekend has already started to move out this morning and by this afternoon we will be in more of a warm air advection pattern ahead of our next system. The low track remains consistent with past forecasts tracking across the Minnesota/Canada border into the Great Lakes today. This keeps the best forcing generally in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin, thus the best rain chances are east of I-35. Another challenge with the rain today will be the low level dry air. It will take a while for the rain to saturate the air and reach the surface, similar to some of our rain chances over the past week. With this low level dry air we combined with gusty winds, mainly over western Minnesota, will provide for yet another elevated fire weather period this afternoon. The forecast feels like it's on repeat recently.

The rest of the week will see warming temperatures through Friday with widespread highs in the 80s likely. This will unfortunately also come with daily chances for more elevated fire weather. All together a bad week for trying to do burning outdoors. This is due to consistent dry air with ample mixing providing for gusty winds in the afternoon. The only hope is that the pattern does start to look more active again with increased rain chances late week into next weekend. Still a wide spread within ensemble guidance and therefore the NBM. The three main global models (GFS, ECMWF, and CMC GDPS) have the forcing best Thursday night into Friday and this is also where NBM has the highest PoPs. It is when you look at the ensemble members of those same model systems that confidence is not high due to the spread. There are still members that take this in a dry direction, so this is not just a timing difference. However 24 hour probability of measurable rain is 50 to 70 percent so the majority of members give us something.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Clear sky VFR with light and variable winds overnight. Winds will be light from the south this morning before becoming gusty from the southeast this afternoon into the evening. Rain chances still generally all outside of the period. Although some virga chances late in the period for AXN. There will be a lot of dry air in the lower atmosphere for the rain to overcome.

KMSP...As the next round of rain chances approach, added in some LLWS as forecast soundings are showing increasing agreement in this occurring.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, Chance -SHRA/MVFR early. Wind SW to NW 15-20G35 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-20G30 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Chisago- Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne- Stearns-Todd. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley- Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Dunn-Pepin- Pierce-St. Croix.