textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold & dry through the remainder of the work week.

- Next chance of light snow arrives this weekend.

- Extended forecast features a warming trend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

No significant weather concerns in the near term as satellite reveals mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Northwesterly winds are still on the breezy side following the eastward departure of an upper-low over the Great Lakes earlier this morning. The influence of ~1030mb surface high pressure over the Dakotas increases with each passing hour, which will allow for winds to subside heading into this evening. Afternoon temperatures are on track to reach the upper single digits across most of the region, though the aforementioned surface winds are supporting wind chills of roughly -10 or so. Overnight lows are forecast to run between zero to -10, with wind chills of -15 to -25. The coldest values are forecast across central MN. A similar theme is expected for the remainder of the work week, as the Upper Midwest remains positioned between an upper low over the Hudson Bay and ridging over the western CONUS. The Hudson Bay upper low will begin to breakdown Thursday into Friday, which sends an elongated inverted trough south across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Large scale subsidence represented by a ~1045mb surface high will yield our coldest temperatures of upcoming period. Morning lows between -5 to -15 will be accompanied by minimum wind chills of -20 to -30 late Thursday through Friday morning. Our latest forecast grids suggest that we'll run just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, though this is a timeframe that will need to be watched for a potential cold weather headline.

We start to see the signs of a pattern change on Saturday, as large scale ridging expands eastward across the northern CONUS. In response to rising heights and mid-level thermal advection, there is good ensemble support for a return to the teens for highs on Saturday and then into the 20s for highs Sunday, Monday, & Tuesday. In addition, we look to finally have multiple days with widespread morning lows above zero (perhaps above the single digits!). The eastward expansion of the upper ridging will place the Upper Midwest in a more favorable position for an active clipper pattern. The first of these waves is forecast to dive southeast across the Dakotas Saturday into Sunday. There is some uncertainty in how efficient snow will be given very dry antecedent conditions surrounding the surface high, however ensemble solutions would suggest medium to high confidence in a high PoP/low QPF scenario capable of producing a widespread inch or two of fresh powder. Another clipper aims to track southeast along a baroclinic zone Tuesday into Wednesday, though confidence is currently lower in specifics given the forecast distance of about a week or so out. I would venture to guess most folks won't mind the chances for light snow if it means daily highs near/slightly above normal!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 517 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

A quiet period is ahead of us with winds consistently at 290-330 at or under 10kts. Most begin SKC, however MKT/AXN will see a couple hours of intermittent MVFR CIGS as the last of some fair weather strato-cu dissipate. More cu are possible after 16-17z through around 22-00z, however in terms of confidence it was less than 50% so only included at MSP for now. Once we get past the first few hours of MVFR potential, VFR for all locations is expected.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.