textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures and weak disturbances with low predictability are in store through Saturday, then a shot of colder air for early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A mild afternoon is well underway with filtered sunshine and temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. Low pressure over northeast Nebraska early this evening will lift northeast across the Upper Midwest and bring a cold front southeast overnight. As the low passes overhead, winds will become light and variable and could promote the development of areas of fog. The fog will likely dissipate as winds increase behind the cold front late.

High pressure will slide east along the Canadian border Tuesday. Cold air advection is not expected to be particularly strong, so Tuesday will be a bit cooler but there won't be a bona fide shot of arctic air with this front. The high will shift east Tuesday night and allow winds to turn southeast again through Wednesday. Another high across southern Canada will bring the second act of winds shifting northwest for Wednesday night, resuming southeast for Thursday. A stronger low pressure system over South Dakota will allow these southeast winds to strengthen and advect better low level moisture north. Considerable low cloud cover should result and may also result in fog. The overcast conditions and snowpack will limit how mild temperatures will likely get and forecasted highs have decreased a few degrees with the recent trend. The low will become an inverted trough as it tracks east to the Great Lakes Thursday night. While not overly impressive, some precipitation should break out across northern and eastern MN. Warm temperatures aloft will favor liquid and surface temps will determine whether it hits the surface as rain or freezing rain. Similar to last night, amounts will be light but could be impactful for Friday morning.

A more substantial trough is forecast to dig into northern Rockies/northern Plains Friday and then track east to the Great Lakes Saturday night. Most of the precip with this system could be confined to northern MN, but shifts are likely in the coming days. The low pressure center could undergo strengthening depending how the trough digs southeast. Strong high pressure building south into the northern Plains behind it will usher in another shot of arctic air Sunday and early next week. Then, a quick moderating trend in temperatures back to above normal is likely as zonal flow or slight ridging returns.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout this TAF duration, though the warmer temperatures with existing snowpack (particularly fresh over western WI) may create conditions for fog during the early morning hours. Conditions look best for RNH/EAU to have such a scenario so have included MVFR visibilities at this point there. Otherwise, passing high clouds will continue throughout this duration, with some mid-level fair wx cumulus clouds possible Tuesday afternoon. Winds will go light/variable this evening then pick up from the W-NW under 10kts tomorrow.

KMSP...There's a small chance for some ground fog prior to the Tuesday morning push but winds aren't expected to go calm so the probability for fog is low, thus have left its mention out of the TAF. Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/IFR. Wind light/variable.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.