textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated diurnal showers possible Friday. Otherwise the rest of the next 7 days looks dry.

- Long duration, potentially significant heat wave moves in this weekend and continues through most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 433 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

It has been a quiet night with the diffuse cold front that moved through Wednesday now down across northern Iowa and southern WI. You can also see drying and subsidence on water vapor. Though this looks like a good candidate for fog and stratus, we've hung on to a 3k to 6k foo cloud deck that has kept the fog from running wild this morning. All in all, this will be a very nice day, with skies clearing out and highs in the low 80s with dewpoints retreating to the upper 50s to mid 60s.

As we go through the day today, a weak cold front will be moving across NoDak. Storms will likely fire along the front late in the day today, with a few showers/storm moving into northwest MN and possibly northwest sections of our forecast area out near Alexandria and Long Prairie late tonight. This diffuse boundary will continue east into MN on Friday, where it will start washing out. However, just enough convergence looks to be left over on this front, that when combined with daytime heating will be enough to spark some isolated showers and storms Friday afternoon, most likely in central MN. This is the one straw we have to grasp at for precipitation chances over the next 7 days.

For this weekend, the well advertised and potentially record breaking h5 high begins building in. Those height rises Saturday and Sunday will squash any precipitation chances and begin sending thermometers up into the 90s. By Monday and Tuesday next week, even ensemble means show h5 heights exceeding 600dm in southern MN. In the STC/MPX upper air climate record (1948-present), the max observed h5 height is 598dm. The last time we got there was August of 2023 when the high was...98 degrees. So this will be a hot airmass that builds in next week, just how hot is still uncertain, especially as the h5 heights start to recede Wednesday. However, current soil moisture conditions are not bone dry thanks to recent frequent rains. In addition, we're now entering the peak evapotranspiration season for the corn crop (welcome to corn sweat season!). These two factors will likely make it tough to reach the heights of the top end ensemble members (highs of 100 to 105), but it will still be uncomfortably warm. As for when we'll see relief from the heat, both the GEFS and EPS mean highs for Wednesday-Friday have been trending warmer, so unless we can manage to work some convective complexes this far south mid-late next week (which looks hard to do given our capping and how far north the storm track recedes), which means we're probably looking at the weekend of the 18th and 19th before we start seeing some relief from the heat. See the climate section below for a cautionary note about all those 100s you see models (looking at you ECMWF) cranking out next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Stubborn MVFR cigs are finally clearing at KMKT and KEAU. Diurnal Cu have developed with VFR cigs generally expected through the end of the period. There is a non zero chance for a few scattered showers to develop across western Minnesota late tonight, but confidence is too low to include that at this time. We may see some patchy fog develop thanks to the light/calm winds overnight and have added that to KMKT and our Wisconsin sites. KEAU would have the greatest chance of seeing IFR conditions develop. High clouds move in tomorrow morning with winds slowly picking up out of the southeast by the afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.