textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and gusty winds.

- Temperatures remaining cooler than normal, but warming up back to near normal (highs around 80) late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A potent shortwave trough over northeastern MT and northwestern ND will advance southeast today. A weaker shortwave over the Dakotas will precede it this morning. Clouds are beginning to increase across western MN now, with a few stations reporting light rain in southeastern ND. These showers will work into western MN during the early and mid morning hours, then largely dissipate before reaching WI. The main shortwave will reach MN during the mid afternoon and WI by early evening. Cold temperatures aloft for this time of year will accompany the trough. While dew points will be fairly dry by June standards, the cold air aloft with the trough axis and an area of mid level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will compensate and produce SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg during peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms will result with coverage greatest near the mid level vort max across central MN and northern/western WI. Shear will be greatest south of the vort max where 500 mb winds of 60 kts are expected. There is some overlap between the greater instability north and supportive shear south to bring a low chance for severe storms capable of marginally severe hail and gusty winds across central/eastern MN and WI. The shortwave will progress east of the area by mid evening and thunderstorm activity will end while skies clear for the rest of the night.

The next system to watch will emerge over the central Plains Saturday. A warm front and rich moisture will be in place across NE/KS/northern MO which will spark heavy rain producing clusters of thunderstorms. Much of this activity will remain well to the south, and may trend farther south with time as is usually the case with setups such as this. For now chances for showers and thunderstorms extend north into southern MN, but wouldn't be surprised if these are reduced going forward.

A system traversing east along the U.S./Canadian border Monday will bring some increasing moisture northward by Tuesday. A cold front will pas through during the afternoon likely bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Broad troughing will continue for the entire forecast period keeping temperatures below normal. By late next week or the following weekend there are signs of ridging trying to build back to the Upper Midwest with a potentially more active pattern developing, along with temperatures returning closer to normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Two rounds of precip are expected through this evening. The first is working its way into western Minnesota this morning with a few embedded thunderstorms. These showers are expected to diminish as they continue to move to the east, but may lead to brief periods of MVFR cigs/vis.

Winds will increase by early afternoon out of the west/northwest with gusts around 20kts. A second round of thunderstorms is possible this afternoon, but coverage remains the biggest uncertainty. Have opted to stick with PROB30/TEMPOs for the widely scattered nature. Once storms wrap up this evening, skies clear and winds decrease to 10kts or less.

KMSP...Removed this morning's shower mention as guidance continues to show weakening as they approach KMSP. For this afternoon's storms, will hopefully have a better handle on coverage of TSRA by late morning and may adjust the PROB30.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT... VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts. SUN... VFR. Wind ENE at 5-10 kts. MON... VFR. Wind NE at 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.