textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Coldest temperatures of the season so far is expected tonight. Low temperatures will range between 15 to 20 below zero. Wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero likely.

- Significant pattern change to occur the first half of the new work week. Much warmer & drier pattern on deck.

- Mid-week storm system to bring Wintry mix and a brief stint of cold for the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Current visible satellite imagery reveal a seemingly pleasant day with clear skies & plenty of sunshine. Unfortunately, surface observations reveal temperatures struggling to warm above zero and wind chill temperatures in the 10s to 20s below zero across the Upper Midwest. The Arctic airmass will cause air temperatures to plummet into the teens below zero overnight with some locations in 20 to 25 below zero possible. Wind chill temperatures will be 25 to 35 below zero - given the winds remain relatively light. It doesn't take a lot of wind to add insult to injury at these temperatures. Bundle up if you are outside. This is serious cold and can result in frostbite in minutes not hours. Some hires guidance would support low stratus moving in tonight that would cause our overnight lows to be too cold, but confidence is too low to include sky cover & warm lows at this time.

The beginning of the new work week will begin with the Arctic air departing east & north and replacing it with milder, Pacific maritime airmass. Unfortunately, there is a rather significant pattern change on tap that looks to shift us for a milder & drier pattern through the Christmas holiday week. This pattern will likely feature one or two "thaws" while majority of the above normal temperatures are driven by warm nighttime low temperatures (IE a low of 20 vs normal of 10). Some snow pack should remain through the end of this pattern change. Our pattern change is driven by a few factors but the one that can be observed easier will be the more persistent attempt of mid level ridging across southern & central CONUS. It is notable that the Arctic air remains just over the border in southern and western Canada - unlike a few winters back where any appreciable cold was no where to be seen in the western hemisphere. What this will do is set up a sharp temperature gradient across the northern tier US states with cold Arctic air in Canada and milder, maritime airmass across the southern 2/3 of the CONUS. It'll be interesting to see if we're able to get a storm or two to capitalize on that gradient before a shift back toward a cooler pattern arrives after the holiday.

High temperatures will be in the 30s Tuesday through Thursday with a non-zero chance of 40 on Thursday ahead of a cold front. This system will bring precip chances Wednesday night into Thursday morning tied to the cold front. Right now there is a lot of spread as what the p- type will be but in all likelihood a wintry mix of rain, ice, & snow appear possible. We'll refine that forecast as we near mid-week. Some guidance does show a cooler post-frontal look that could result in a small blip of wet snow... again we'll see! Beyond that it'll remain cloudy and dry for much of the week. A brief cold snap will build in behind the system with falling temperatures forecast throughout Thursday. Overnight lows will dip back below zero and highs struggle to warm out of the teens on Friday. Ridging begins to push back into the region over the weekend but will likely remain more zonal than amped flow over the conus. This pattern will give us all some time to catch our breath before what should be a more active winter resumes.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Breezy WNW winds this afternoon will gust upwards of 20-25kts. Latest guidance continues to suggest winds will remain breezy for the first few hours following sunset. Winds turn westerly by daybreak and then continue to turn out of the south tomorrow afternoon. Morning flurries/VFR stratus across southern MN will continue to shift south out of the forecast area early in the 18z period. VFR conditions will persist at all terminals through the remainder of the period, as the only chance for mid-level clouds will be over RNH/EAU tonight. Otherwise, look for scattered mid to high clouds to build across central MN towards the end of the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SW early, bcmg WNW 10-15kts. TUE...MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G20kts. WED...MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns- Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Wright. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for Brown- Faribault-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.