textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms ongoing this morning, with heavy rainfall rates at times. On and off showers expected from sunset through late morning.

- Seasonal temperatures expected through the rest of the week, with a couple periods of storms possible this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

TODAY...We start this morning off with a corridor of storms stretching from eastern CO all the way up through Lake Superior and into Canada. These storms have been heavy rainfall producers with spots like KSTC recording periods of 2.5-3"/hr rates. The airport saw 0.5" fall in about 10 minutes. Fortunately, from a flooding perspective, these storms have been fairly progressive tonight, with the main line already approaching the MN/WI border as of 3:15AM. The LLJ does not really start to wane until after sunset, so continued development behind the main line will remain possible given that there is still plenty of moisture to work with throughout atmosphere. At the very least, the shield of precip near the SD/IA/MN corner will slowly spread northeast and bring on-and- off showers behind the main line. The bulk of the rain will be done by late morning, though spotty showers may persist until the front finally swings through today.

There is a growing signal for storms to redevelop along the front this afternoon/evening as it moves from west to east. Sufficient daytime heating and anomalously high PWAT values will be in place ahead of the fropa, though the limiting factor will be the absence of appreciable forcing and low-level convergence. The best environment remains across Iowa, where the LLJ will enhance low- level shear. That said, you do see some solutions like the 06z HRRR producing storms as far north as the Twin Cities metro this evening. Weak mid-level lapse rates should limit any severe threat if any isolated storms develop, highlighted by the removal of SPC's Day 1 Marginal Risk for much of east-central MN and western WI.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...It'll be a quieter two-day period as higher pressure spreads in from the west. Winds will become breezy on Wednesday as CAA supports gusts of around 25 to 35 mph to mix down to the surface. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s, but lows should drop into the 50s (or even 40s for some spots north of I-94 Thursday morning).

THIS WEEKEND...Trends continue to favor a bit more activity both Friday and Sunday this weekend as an area of lower heights builds in near the international border. A series of frontal passages could support multiple chances for rain, including Friday evening and much of Sunday. There is uncertainty with these setups being a few days out, but the SPC is at least highlighting a window for severe potential with the Friday fropa. Then with Sunday, ensemble guidance is hinting at some legit rainfall potential as a boundary stalls out across the Upper MS Valley. Expect future discussions to track these risks, though for now there are many details still unknown and it is certainly not worth changing any weekend plans quite yet.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continues to press east over southern-eastern MN through western WI at initialization. Ceilings are fairly varied, from as low as low- range MVFR at MSP to high VFR in western MN. Precip is still very much possible at all sites through late morning, while waiting for the cold front to press eastward and clear each TAF site into the mid-afternoon hours. MVFR conditions are still very much possible in eastern MN into western WI this morning, then all sites will be VFR this afternoon through tonight. There is a possibility of low stratus and fog at EAU for early Wednesday morning but otherwise VFR conditions are expected into sunrise Wednesday. Breezy S winds still expected through the day today, then winds will veer and diminish in speed this evening through tonight as the front pushes across the area.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings to start and possibly last into later this morning before VFR conditions return. Another round of two of showers looks possible given the radar trends over southwestern MN. The afternoon hours and onward look to prevail as VFR, especially as the cold front pushes through and more stable/drier air moves into the area. Winds will remain in the 10-5kt range with gusts 20-25kts for most of the day, with speeds dropping off tonight while directions veer to S and W this afternoon through tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. SHRA/MVFR likely late. Wind SW 15G25-30kts. SAT...VFR. Winds NW 10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.