textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Up and down temperature trend continues through the forecast period. Warm today, cooler late week, then warmer for the weekend.

- Chance of rain showers late tonight into Thursday morning.

- More active weather pattern returns for early April.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

All is calm and quiet in the interim early this morning. Temperatures currently reside in the 40s for most sites. A few folks have dipped into the upper 30s across southern MN as mid- level cloud cover has moved on. For today's forecast, an inverted surface trough will move across northern MN through the course of today. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging across the western CONUS broadens along the Canadian border. At the same time, the eastern periphery of an h850 thermal ridge will enter the northern plains. Therefore, its expected that forecast highs will be roughly 10 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday's highs. Southwestern MN nearest to the Buffalo Ridge could reach the mid-70s while the rest of us range in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Regardless, its going to be a nice mild day.

These mild conditions of course in true spring fashion will be short lived. A cold front will force the development of rainfall late tonight into Thursday. EPS membership continues to feel pretty confident on sites across central MN and western WI seeing rainfall beginning from west to east, therefore have nudged PoPs into 60-80% categories. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the ECMWF AIFS ensemble appears to be the most aggressive in terms of total QPF amounts. However, given its consistent footprint over the last few runs, have shifted the WPC/NBM QPF maxima closer to the I-94 corridor and increased rainfall amounts. One thing we will need to continue to watch is if any dry- air reduces our potential of seeing a tenth or two of rain after this is all said and done. One change since the previous forecast was the mention of potential snowfall on the backside of this system across portions of western MN. As of now for p-types, Hi-Res forecast soundings do try to hang on to a short period of rain phasing to snow. However, will there be enough moisture remaining in place by the time colder air is advected into our forecast area? As of now, felt like an all rain scenario was more representative. Speaking of colder air, forecast highs for Thursday will range in the 40s to low 50s across central MN and western WI, meanwhile upper 50s along the I-90 corridor. Forecasts lows will range in the 20s.

By Friday, a 1040mb sfc high becomes dominant which will bring plentiful sunshine to MN/WI although our highs will struggle to exceed 40 degrees. As we enter the weekend into early next week, warmer air does begin to build back in as another h850 thermal ridge develops to our west. Precip chances for this period remain low and it doesnt look like the pattern becomes active again until early April. Now, the question looms, can I put my winter stuff away yet? Safe answer would be to wait another week or two.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

All sites to start out as VFR with mainly passing high clouds but ceilings will develop by the late evening hours ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered rain showers are then expected for mainly central-eastern MN into western WI during the overnight to dawn hours. No heavy precip is expected, mainly just passing showers. THe only sites not expected to receive rain are RWF-MKT, as the precip will be mainly confined to sites near and north of I-94. MVFR ceilings will then develop shortly after the precip onset, with MVFR ceilings then likely persisting for much of the daytime hours on Thursday. Post- front, winds will swing around to northerly and become a bit breezy/gusty during the day Thursday. There is a very small chance of a few afternoon rain showers Thursday but chances are too low for inclusion at this point.

KMSP...VFR with passing high clouds, which will develop to ceilings late this evening and steadily lower during the overnight hours. A few rain showers are possible from the pre- dawn hours through daybreak, nothing heavy and no TS. Low-range VFR ceilings are then expected to persist for much of the day Thursday. Ceilings may drop to minimal MVFR levels but confidence is not great to explicitly put into the TAF so have held off its mention at this point. A few additional rain showers are possible Thursday afternoon but chances are too low for inclusion at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.