textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Blowing snow & icy flash freeze conditions will create hazardous travel conditions into this evening.

- Plummeting temperatures fall into the singled digits & below zero this evening. Wind chills below -20 degrees across west- central Minnesota overnight.

- A light wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, & sleet is likely across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin Friday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Very active conditions over the Upper Midwest today as a very strong low pressure for december continues to track eastwards across northern Minnesota into the Great Lakes. The dry slot from this occluded system continues to move eastwards into western Wisconsin early this afternoon, leading to benign conditions - for now. Meanwhile, a potent Arctic front on the back side of the system is resulting in hazardous winter travel conditions from a combination of gusty winds, low visibility from blowing snow, & plummeting temperatures resulting in flash freeze conditions.

First off: the wind. So far prior wind forecasts remain on track with northwest winds gusting to 45-50 mph across western Minnesota. A few sites have seen peak wind gusts around 55 mph, but we'll probably see gusts this afternoon continue to top out around 50 mph as the gusty winds continue to spread eastwards across Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The pressure gradient does slacken farther east into western Wisconsin along with the rougher terrain, so expect the gusts of 40-50 mph to extend into the I-35 corridor of eastern Minnesota through late afternoon, while slightly lower speeds of 35-45 mph are most likely into Wisconsin. The gusts will begin diminishing by this evening as the low exits to the east, but winds will still gust to around 30 mph into the overnight hours.

In addition to the strong winds, widespread light snow continues to spread eastwards behind the Arctic front. The main hazards from this snow is the low visibility as the strong gusts create almost an "icy fog" of the shredded snowflakes/ice crystals. Visibilities are very low across western Minnesota, below 1 mile at times, & we expect these low visibilities to continue to spread eastwards into the I-35 corridor & western Wisconsin through the afternoon. Visibilities should be not as bad across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin where winds will be slightly weaker & there is more terrain, but will still lead to hazardous driving conditions through the evening commute. Again, the impacts from this light snow will not be from the amounts as we're expecting any accumulations to be less than an inch, rather from the low visibility from the falling snow.

Despite the rather light snow amounts of half an inch to an inch, the concern later this afternoon & evening will be the potential for this dusting of snow to quickly compact & freeze on roads & surfaces as temperatures plummet behind the Arctic front. There is a chance in some areas that the snow is so light that it just blows entirely off of the roads & is unable to freeze up into the ice, but we really are stressing the potential for a slow & icy commute this evening, especially in the Twin Cities metro & major travel corridors. these flash freeze conditions could continue into this evening for a few hours after the snow is expected to end.

So to summarize, we are expecting a slow & icy commute this afternoon & evening from the combination of blowing snow & flash freeze conditions. Please plan on taking extra time, slow down, keep extra space between vehicles, & ensure that headlights are on.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Snow will be done at EAU by 6z, with VFR cigs not trailing too far behind the ending of the snow. Northwest winds will gradually diminish through the night, making a switch to the southeast from sunrise to the early afternoon going from west to east on Friday. Mid-level clouds will be on the increase with those southeast winds with the only weather concern this period coming at the tail end of the period, with a narrow band of snow looking to ride across the nose of a thermal ridge across central MN. Though the predominate p-type looks to be snow, the south end of this band of precip will be close enough to the warm nose to bring a -fzra threat as well. MSP is the one airport that looks to have to keep an eye on that potential right now.

KMSP...There's still some spread on what 2 or 3 hour window will have the best chance at seeing some light precip, but a general consensus of the hi-res is 8z to 11z. As seen with the HRRR, there will be a lingering warm nose this precip will be moving into, so there is potential for some -fzra, but right now, that potential is not high enough to include a fzra chance in the TAF, but will be something to watch.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 15-25G35kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SSE 10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.