textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of under half mile visibility from blowing snow will continue through the evening.

- Behind this snow, much colder air moves in with wind chills down in the 20s to lower 30s below zero this weekend into early next week.

- Next chances for snow are Sunday and mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Rest of Today through Saturday... As the surface low over the Great Lakes continues to move off the the east we will continue to see the wrap around region of its snow. We are also seeing strong northwest winds and northwest flow aloft. This cold air advection has helped to mix down stronger winds to the surface. These elevated winds combined with our light snowfall have resulting in low visibility due to blowing snow. We were fortunate though that the amount of blowable snow has been limited from melt earlier this month and from much of last night's snow staying to our north. High pressure from Canada will be moving in behind this system keeping the pressure gradient over us and winds will remain into Saturday. As falling snow comes to an end though (as the low departs and forcing ends), the amount of blowing snow will decrease and visibility will be higher. This continued northwest flow and Canadian high moving in, combined with continued elevated winds will bring down wind chills tonight. Generally expecting wind chills in the 20s below zero across western Minnesota and 5 to 15 below zero across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Sunday into Monday... Sunday will see another clipper system move across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Unlike some of our past clippers this one will be entirely in a cold air mass, so no warm side mixed precipitation. With all snow precipitation types the track matters more for where the best forcing will be. In general most ensemble guidance keeps the track of the center of the low right across Minnesota and Wisconsin. As is common for clippers that travel across the state snow is expected to be the heaviest along and north of I-94 where 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected. Behind this clipper even colder air will advect in bringing wind chills down into the -25 to -35 range for Monday morning. If this forecast holds a Cold Weather Advisory will be necessary. Monday looks cold and windy as another high moves in from Canada and keeps the pressure gradient up. By Monday night the coldest air will have moved through allowing for a thermal profile that is no longer favorable for mixing.

Rest of the Week... Northwest flow continues this week with another system moving through the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. Still a lot spread in the global ensemble systems on QPF for this system, but this is the only one for the rest of week with much clustering. There are multiple other signals for the rest of the week, but little agreement in timing or location. Looking towards the deterministic models this looks to be a quick moving clipper-like system that still looks to be developing as it passes over us. The main part of this system looks to occur for the eastern Great Lakes into east coast. Under continued northwest flow temperature look to continue below normal through the end of next week with highs in the teens above zero. This is on a climate normals basis the coldest time of the year, but even normal highs are in the lower 20s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A band of heavier snow has setup along a line roughly from STC down to MSP and towards Red Wing, MN. Under this band, visibilities have been around 1 to 2 SM, and as low as 1/2SM at its peak during the afternoon. Snow showers and blowing snow will continue this evening, with impacts tapering off tonight. While lingering light snow or flurries may continue into Saturday morning, we expect visibilities to remain MVFR or better. Winds will remain gusty, especially across west-central and southern Minnesota, through Saturday evening. Ceilings may jump to low-end VFR at times, though it is expected that MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the period.

KMSP...The narrow band of heavy snow remains situated just southwest of KMSP, limiting visibility reductions to only around 2 to 4 SM so far. There is a chance that the band pushes north and east enough to bring higher rates, that the further we get into the evening, the less of a chance there will still be strong enough forcing to keep the band as strong as it is now. Expect light snow showers to linger through around sunrise tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/-SN likely, chc IFR/LIFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. TUE...VFR. Wind W to S 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood- Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca- Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.