textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing showers and storms could produce brief gusty winds and localized flooding. Chance for severe weather is low.

- Another round of storms is possible this afternoon and evening favoring southern to southeastern MN and western WI.

- Chances for additional rainfall after today are few and far between, with temperatures heating up into the weekend and even more into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The radar mosaic as of 245am shows a few clusters of generally weak storms moving across the region, with the most notable being clusters over western WI moving east, in western Stearns moving east, and in eastern SoDak moving east. The main concern has transitioned from the severe threat earlier in the night to a localized/flash flooding threat as the lower level inversion has resulted in significant low level capping and a lack of wind gusts making it to the surface. The last few storms could still produce a gust or two, but generally we expect to see little in the way of traditional severe weather threats from this point forward due to a lack of instability. As far as the flooding threat goes, we are not completely out of the woods yet but the trajectory of the storms moving in this morning is farther south than what moved through earlier in the night, and as such the flooding threat is a bit lower as we have yet to see storms moving through an area that was already hit. We may end up issuing a couple flood warnings yet tonight, but the overall risk is a bit lower than it was looking thanks to the different locations of separate storms. In general compared to the guidance, the later rounds of storms have been farther south of the HREF PMM QPF which was favoring an area from St. Cloud to Brainerd, and instead this round is more clustered from St. Cloud to Mankato. A couple inches of rain are possible from the storms moving in, and for those that have been mostly dry so far we will struggle to see any significant flooding from this. The one exception would be urban areas that lead to significant runoff, so we are not quite completely out of the woods yet.

The frontal boundary along which the storms have been moving is expected to sag southwards throughout the day, and there are some pretty significant timing differences between the CAMs still. The RRFS produces a couple storms in northern Iowa that move towards southern MN as early as 10-11am, with the HRRR keeping storms around from this morning much later and re-forming storms generally shortly before or around 6pm. Forecast soundings from the HRRR in southern MN show a healthy 2500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE by 3pm with little if any capping and adiabatic surface lapse rates allowing for decent mixing, so I wouldn't be surprised if storms started to fire a bit earlier than the model reflectivity is suggesting for the post- morning round. The main limiting factor will be the shear as the hodograph is fairly unidirectional with the majority of the profile favoring westerly winds with a slight southward tilt in the lower levels. Speed shear is still good enough to maintain storms as they get going, so while spinning storms would be less likely outside of storm/outflow interactions, storms should be able to maintain their strength if they remain discreet enough. Overall the inclusion of the marginal/slight SPC risks is welcome for southern MN as we certainly have the thermodynamics and just enough dynamics to support the storms.

As the storms exit later today, that is pretty much it for rain chances for the foreseeable future as we transition to the incoming heat dome that has been advertised by us and the weather enterprise in general. There is some uncertainty remaining in just how warm we get as can be seen if you compare the 500mb maps beginning Sunday through midweek from the GEFS/EPS respectively. The GEFS trough is more progressive in eastern North America which allows the ridge to flatten earlier, resulting in a marginally weaker dome of heat which would promote low to mid 90s as our warmest temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. The EPS is a bit slower, resulting in taller 500mb heights almost reaching 600dam, with EPS mean highs in the upper 90s for early next week. We are more than likely looking at heat headlines regardless of which wins out for at least a Monday/Tuesday next week, with more possible depending on which ultimately is closer to reality. Precipitation chances will be absent as long as the ridge is in place as large scale subsidence will be present, with the longer range ensemble meteograms showing very few members with appreciable rain chances until at least Thursday next week and even then it is less than 20% of EPS members. The NAEFS continue to highlight near maxed out 500mb heights and 99th percentile temperatures for this time of year to nobodies surprise. It might be a good idea to prep a bit early for this heat wave and find ways to keep cool next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

It will be a messy day today, as showers and storms will continue to come and go along a diffuse front as it pushes through the area. At 630am, that front sat from roughly Appleton (KAQP), to STC, and DLH. Models have really struggled to handle the southern extent of the area of rain/TS moving out of southwest MN, but the idea models like the HRRR give is that the current diminishing trend will continue through the morning. Storms are expected to refire around noon along the front, with the afternoon TS threat being along and southeast of a MKT to EAU line. For this afternoon, MKT and EAU are the only sites where TS is mentioned. Another area of uncertainty for today is just how low/widespread post frontal stratus will be. There is quite the mix of VFR, MFVR, and IFR cigs in central MN now, but do expect the MVFR/IFR stratus in central MN to become more widespread. For tonight, the LAV/GFSlamp go hard into stratus and fog, but RAP soundings show things clearing out with no fog tonight. Leaned the optimistic route for now, but that will be something to watch.

KMSP...best rain chances are expected through 18z. Given the morning timing of the showers, it is possible they produce very little lightning. Consensus for this afternoon is storms will remain southeast of MSP, so did remove the TS mention from the afternoon we had in the 06z TAF. Low confidence on cigs today, but RAP soundings support cigs down to as low as 012 from about 16z to 04z. Want higher confidence in how widespread the lower clouds will be this morning before getting too pessimistic with the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...Chc mrng MVFR/IFR cigs. Wind E 5 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.