textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Up and down temperature trend through next weekend.

- Periods of light snow possible Tuesday & Wednesday, with minor accumulations possible over portions of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Our work week forecast begins on a mostly clear, cold, and quiet note across south central MN and most of western WI. 3AM temperatures range between -6 at AXN to 10 at EAU. Lingering low stratus, tied to a NE 925/850mb fetch off of Lake Superior, blankets the skies over Rusk, Chippewa, & Eau Claire counties in WI and is supporting slow cooling. Some uncertainty exists in how soon the stratus will scatter out of those western WI counties, though the eastward advance of ridging should turn the mid-level fetch more northerly and flush the stratus east later this morning. Otherwise, today appears partly to mostly sunny and quiet as surface high pressure builds across the Upper Midwest. Little change in the air mass will support another day of below normal temperatures. Afternoon highs are forecast to range between 15-20 degrees or so.

A more active picture sets up this week as a ~160kt jet streak translates east across the International Border. The initial system to watch will be a clipper that is forecast to take shape on the nose of the jet tonight over Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Little change in the expected track of the clipper, which is progged to drift southeast across northern MN into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday. This track places the majority of our forecast area on the warm side of the system, which is reflected by the expansion of a thermal ridge, characterized by +3-7C 925mb T's, late tonight into Tuesday morning. As a result, Tuesday should feel quite a bit warmer, with latest forecast highs set to range between 35-40 degrees for most locations. Mid 40s appear possible along I-90. The coolest temperatures are forecast north of I-94 in MN, where highs are set to run closer to the freezing mark. Given the expected track of the clipper, the majority of precipitation will fall as snow in WFO DLH's forecast area. With that being said, ensemble means support a few hundredths of liquid along and north of I-94 in the MPX CWA. Thermal profiles within the WAA regime support light mixed precipitation near I-94 in both MN/WI as the clipper slides through. Father north, p-type should be all snow given a cooler profile & proximity to the surface low. It's these locations (northern Mille Lacs, Kanabec, Polk, Barron, Rusk) that will have the best chance of a half inch to inch of fresh snow accumulation.

Strong cold advection trailing the clipper will usher in -5 to -10C 850mb temperature anomalies heading into Wednesday morning, which will yield a colder day with highs in the upper teens to lower 20s. Our attention turns to the second half of Wednesday, when the next round of active weather (in the form of light snow) will be possible. By Wednesday, the active storm track will have shifted south, which places our forecast area on the northern/cold side of the next wave. Driving precipitation chances is a shortwave that is forecast to strengthen across central Plains. Guidance has been consistent in a WNW to SSE oriented precipitation band across eastern SD/SW MN into central/northern Iowa. Uncertainty in the degree of warm advection and placement of a remnant baroclinic zone following Tuesday's clipper have resulted in a large spread in the position and intensity of the band of precipitation. However, there is growing consensus across the model suite (including machine learning output) that the heaviest QPF will setup to the southwest of our forecast area. As a result, liquid precipitation amounts have come down a bit and PoPs remain in the 30-40 percent range Wednesday evening. Per the blended solution, locations with the best chance for an inch or so of snow accumulation will be along I-90. Should the latest southerly trends continue, PoPs & QPF amounts will undergo further decreases.

The up and down temperature trend will take a turn in the warmer direction Thursday and Friday, as an expansive thermal ridge builds across the northern CONUS in response to surface low pressure deepening over south central Canada. 850mb anomalies of 10-12C are forecast to overspread the region and will support highs climbing into the 40-50 degree range on Friday. Most ensemble members keep QPF well to the north of the forecast area, so we'll run with a dry forecast. Colder air returns for the weekend (highs in the 20s) following a mainly dry cold frontal passage. Long term guidance depicts a sprawled out baroclinic zone beneath upper zonal flow next weekend. May eventually need PoP mentions next weekend as a series of weak perturbations advance within the westerly flow regime.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

MVFR stratus over EAU has been slow to scatter out overnight, however recent satellite trends display some erosion of the western edge of the cloud bank. Took the TAF in an optimistic direction, as continued degradation of the stratus should occur early in the period. All other sites open the 12z period with SKC conditions. Back to the NW, a batch of VFR stratus ~10k feet is moving southeast out of ND and will likely hold together as it drifts across MN this morning. Winds will turn out of the south later this morning and into this afternoon, with speeds between 5-10kts. Winds will increase this evening ahead of an incoming clipper that could produce light wintry precipitation at area terminals tomorrow. Precipitation mention may be warranted in forthcoming TAF packages.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 10G20 kts bcmg WNW 15G25kts. WED...VFR, with Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind NW 5-15kts. THU...MVFR/-SN early, then VFR. Wind SE 5 kts bcmg SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.