textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday, followed by near normal temperatures heading into next week

- Rain chances return Friday and remain in the forecast through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Patchy fog has developed early this morning as temperatures drop into the 40s across the region. Expect it to become dense in some locations, but improve quickly after sunrise. Today will be another beautiful fall day with mild temperatures and mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase overnight and an area of showers may move into western Minnesota during the afternoon as a pocket of higher vorticity values spreads northeast from the Sioux Falls area. Those showers could continue further east as the latest HRRR and RRFS depict, though it is more likely that a dry boundary layer will limit the amount of rain that makes it to the surface.

It is not until Saturday that a weakening cold front attempts to sweep through the Upper Midwest. Increased moisture from the Pacific is expected to support multiple rounds of showers as the front stalls out and interacts with several upper level shortwaves heading into next week. WPC's QPF has markedly increased during the Monday timeframe, generating a strip of 0.5 to 1.0 inches from southwest towards east-central MN. While that location may shift, we can confidently say that the pattern will be changed heading into next week, especially when looking at temperatures. Highs will likely dip just below normal for Monday and Tuesday, before recovering slightly by the middle of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Patchy fog is dropping visibilities as low as 1/4SM this morning, though the majority of observations range from 3 to 7SM. Fog will continue for the first 2-3 hours of the period, improving shortly after sunrise. Some high level clouds will begin to stream in from the west near the end of the period, otherwise clear skies are expected for today again.

Winds will remain out of the southeast at or below 10 kts,

KMSP...Visibilities have been steady at 7SM early this morning, though a couple more hours of cooling could allow KMSP to drop to 6SM briefly between 12-14z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SSW 10-15G25kts. SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR late. Wind N 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.