textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Soaking rain expected through this evening across Minnesota, with showers tapering off late tonight and early Saturday as the precipitation reaches western Wisconsin.

- Temperatures trend up Sunday and remain hot for much of the week.

- Low chances for disorganized thunderstorms at times next week, but no widespread rain is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Widespread rain has consolidated into a band from southwest to northeast/east central MN and is slowly lifting northwest. Low pressure over central SD will remain nearly stationary today which will keep the band centered over western MN into the evening. Rainfall amounts may exceed an inch in some locations, with amounts greatly tapering off to the east. Later today and this evening, the low will begin to inch northeastward and weaken. The band of rain will also shift east back into eastern MN, but will also be in a weakening phase as the evening wears on. By the time the band reaches WI late tonight or early Saturday, most of it should have degraded into scattered showers and rainfall amounts will be rather light, if any. The rest of Saturday will feature low clouds in the morning, lifting and scattering in the afternoon. There should be enough sun for temperatures to rise into the low 70s across eastern MN and WI, while lingering clouds across western MN may limit highs to the mid to upper 60s.

Warm air will lift north behind the low Sunday within light southwest flow. Highs will reach around 80. Temps will be even warmer to start the week as 925 mb temps increase to +24 or +25C Monday and +26C Tuesday. This should bring highs into the upper 80s Monday and potentially lower 90s Tuesday. Deeper moisture in the WAA regime late Sunday and Monday amid steep mid lapse rates of 7-8C/km will allow a pool of instability to remain in place. In addition, a small LLJ developing across the central Plains to northwest IA could be the focus for a few thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.

High pressure will push southeast to Hudson Bay Tuesday and build into the Great Lakes late in the week. A backdoor cold front will become stationary roughly along I-94 Wednesday, then wash out later in the week. Additional thunderstorm chances are in the forecast Wednesday afternoon while the pool of instability remains in place along the boundary. Slightly cooler temperatures, although remaining very warm relative to normal, will continue through the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

For the 18z TAF went a bit more aggressive in introducing MVFR CIGS/VSBY with the showers moving in, with the best chance for -TSRA being westernmost sites at RWF/AXN/STC. Elsewhere, -TSRA should be limited such that even a prob30 would be too prevalent, with -SHRA arriving later into the afternoon or evening hours and instability decreasing. Generally expect primarily MVFR CIGS/VSBY, however brief IFR is possible within heavier showers at times for all MN sites, with a lower chance for RNH/EAU. The other primary factor within the TAF will be gusty winds at 25-30kts from 130-160 while -SHRA is ongoing, with winds decreasing below 10kts as they shift towards 220- 250 by the end of the period and as -SHRA chances end. Most sites will remain MVFR towards the end of the period but begin to scatter out, eventually becoming VFR towards the very end.

KMSP...CIGS will gradually lower as -SHRA becomes more likely after 00z, however some intermittent P6SM -SHRA is possible mainly from 18- 20z. A lull is expected after 20z as most of the -SHRA is west of MSP, returning by 00z and lasting through 08-10z at which point showers push off to the east. The boundary producing the showers will also move through after 10z, with winds shifting and decreasing afterwards, eventually becoming VFR with winds below 10kts by 15z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.