textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through the week.

- Chances for rain are not in the forecast until this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Quiet weather continues, with an overall dry atmospheric profile meaning there's no moisture for the weak cold front that's stalled out from southwest MN into northern WI to work with to produce cloud cover let alone rainfall. This front will wash out overnight, with multiple days of southerly flow expected through Saturday. This will support highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal this week, as our October of exceptional warmth continues. Based on recent performance, continued the trend of the previous forecast of going with the NBM 90th percentile for highs for today through Saturday. To get record highs, we need lower 80s for highs, with mid/upper 70s currently expected by the end of the week, so warm, but not quite record high at the moment.

For the weekend, models continue to show a weak cold front moving into MN. This front will be running into ridge axis from the Gulf to the Great Lakes, with the parent low driving this front staying well northwest of MN. This means forcing on the front consists of shallow convergence and moisture near the surface that is hopefully enough to create some rain showers. Timing and placement of the front continues to be varied, with NBM still keeping pops in the 30-50% range, with the highest PoPs coming on Saturday. This doesn't look like a big rain maker or hazardous weather producer, more of a nuisance to any outdoor plans you have if you happen to meet up with some rain along this boundary. What does happen is high pressure moves in behind this front, bringing temperatures back down to near normal. It's just a question of does that cooler air show up on Sunday or Monday.

Beyond the forecast, the 8-12 day period (end of October) looks potentially interesting from a mean upper air and jet pattern with southwesterly flow aloft. However, over the last couple of weeks, the 8-12 period has often looked interesting, but that interesting weather has always stayed 8-12 days out. So while we work on our late season sun tans the rest of the week, it will be interesting to see if we can finally bring a more active pattern to within the 8-12 day window.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout, but could see some patchy fog develop toward the early morning hours. Did include a tempo group for fog at KSTC, KRNH, and KEAU.

Otherwise, winds will be east/southeast tonight, and then take on a more south/southeast direction later today with gusts near 15 kts. No precipitation is expected as skies will be clear.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SSE 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.