textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- An active pattern begins today and will continue through mid week. Greatest risk for strong to severe storms is Monday and Tuesday.

- Much warmer and humid Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Clouds are moving in from the southwest to the northeast this morning. Temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s and 30s north of the cloud cover while locations in SW/S MN have warmed into the 40s. Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the day with highs in the low 50s. An 40+ kt low level jet will move east throughout the day. This will lead to the development of showers later this morning across MN into W WI via strong isentropic lift. The hi-res CAMs continue to struggle with adequate coverage and QPF but that's not too concerning given their struggles in WAA regimes as previously mentioned. ECMWF and AIFS capture the general idea with a broad area of 0.25" to 0.50"+ across E MN and W WI by tonight. Instability is very limited that will act to minimize convection with the initial round this afternoon. A better surge of WAA arrives in the evening. This will allow for MUCAPE to creep into the eastern CWA and introduce isolated thunder chances across E MN and W WI. Our forcing will shift east overnight and precipitation follows. This will allow heavier rain to end, but forecast soundings continue to support the development of drizzle and fog overnight as temperatures and dew points increase.

Sunday's forecast has improved & now looks like it could be a sneaky nice day. Our surface low will move along the international border that will place the dry slot overhead Sunday afternoon. The temperature forecast continues to present some uncertainty. If skies can clear quicker, temperatures likely warm into the lower 80s Sunday afternoon. However, if precipitation slows it's departure and clouds linger longer into Sunday afternoon, highs will likely end up in the 70s. We've opted for the more aggressive, warmer look given the dry slot signature. Precipitation shifts east by daybreak for MN and should wrap up by early afternoon in W WI. Severe weather chances are primarily over W WI where we have a day 2 Marginal risk. CAMs aren't thrilled with severe chances as the dry slot keeps the better moisture well east of our CWA.

Monday and Tuesday will offer legitimate severe weather chances. On Monday, a surface boundary in place from Sunday will activate and push back north as a warm front. High temperatures will warm back into the 70s with Td's into the lower 60s along I-90. This will set the stage for instability to build in during the afternoon. Forecast soundings highlight moderate instability with strong shear present in the vertical profile. The limiting factor will be the amount of capping present. Unfortunately, capping will be less of an issue along the warm front that will located over MN and WI. This frontal boundary should act as a focus point for convective initiation late Monday afternoon/early evening. Guidance spread varies where the robust convection initiates and tracks with some solutions favoring initial storms quickly growing upscale into an MCS. This solution wouldn't be too surprising given the set up. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk (2/5) that is centered over the MPX and ARX forecast areas. All severe hazards would be possible, along with the potential for training storms and heavy rain.

Tuesday's set up is less clear given the potential spread on Monday's scenario. Guidance brings a sfc low out of the Plains into S MN by Tuesday evening. The longer we're able to be in the warm sector, the better our chances for severe weather once again Tuesday afternoon/evening. The greatest concern appears to be over S MN where the sfc low tracks through. A day 4 15% remains over our southern CWA for Tuesday. All hazards would once again be possible. There are some solutions that initiate a bunch of showers and storms ahead of the low and that would act to limit severe chances. Temperatures do warm back into the 70s once again but if a cloudier/wetter look verify it may end up on the cooler side of the forecast. We will dry out mid week before another shortwave comes out of the western CONUS at the end of next week.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.