textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold continues tonight with lows in the single digits.

- Periods of light snow Thursday afternoon through Friday. Accumulations up to 3-4" across western Wisconsin.

- Gusty winds accompany the light snow on Friday & could lead to low visibility from blowing snow, especially in open areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Tonight... Quiet weather continues with surface high pressure sprawled across the region. It'll be another cold night with lows in the single digits and teens. Winds will be much lighter than last night, keeping wind chills from dropping too far below zero.

Thursday through Saturday AM... A deepening trough over the Great Lakes will direct several shortwaves across the Upper Midwest. This will lead to a few rounds of light snow, starting Thursday morning in western & central Minnesota and lasting as late as early Saturday morning across western WI. The first round along the frontal passage looks relatively weaker, and may not fully materialize until reaching east-central MN and western WI around mid-late morning. About a half to 1 inch is possible. Forecast soundings show ice nuclei becoming limited aloft (within the dry slot of the system) Thursday afternoon. Should lower levels remain saturated, there will potential for light drizzle or freezing drizzle. We do not expect any noticeable ice accretion (outside of colder, elevated surfaces), and currently favor a lull in precipitation until Thursday evening as wrap- around showers spread southeast from the Dakotas and northwest MN. A burst of heavier snow is possible during the evening commute, especially for areas near and north of a line stretching from Morris, MN towards the Twin Cities metro and much of western WI.

After that initial push of snow Thursday evening, precipitation may become more on and off (snow showers) throughout the day Friday. With northwesterly winds increasing behind the front, this may lead to periods of low visibility from blowing snow, especially in open areas across western & central MN. It is worth noting that these cold air advection set ups tend to produce wind gusts on the higher end of model output, which would mean to expect up to around 40 to 50 mph for west-central and southern MN.

After all is said and done, the greatest snow amounts of around 2 to 4 inches are still favored to fall across western WI. Lesser amounts can be expected for eastern MN, around 1 to 2 inches, and generally an inch or less elsewhere. It may be hard for some areas to realize any snow accumulation, especially west-central and southern MN, with how strong winds will be Friday. A low end Winter Weather Advisory was considered for portions of western WI, however with amounts falling over a longer period and only topping out around that 3-4" mark, we have opted to not issue one at this time. What would change that is if amounts trend higher or if the impact to travel is expected to be worse. A separate Winter Weather Advisory may be need for the impacts from blowing snow on Friday for west- central and southern MN.

Saturday PM through Wednesday... Cold remains the main story heading into next week. Highs will likely stay in the single digits or teens all the way through the middle of next week, with the coldest days on Saturday and Monday. Winds remain elevated, which could keep wind chills around 10 to 20 below even during the day both Saturday and Monday. A weak system could bring light snow or flurries on Sunday, though QPF is virtually zero. This more just gives us a day of relief from the frigid temperatures Saturday and Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Very few changes from the 14/18z TAF set. NW winds are diminishing and will run 10kts or less from initialization on out, with a period of light/variable winds overnight before shifting to a southerly direction at around 10kts around daybreak. Winds will continue to veer as the day progresses, mainly in response to a cold frontal passage during the day. Winds will run W to NW Thursday afternoon-evening with speeds increasing to 10-15kts with gusts 15-25kts. The cold front will be responsible for ceilings arriving overnight through sunrise in the mid-levels, eventually dropping to MVFR levels Thursday afternoon in conjunction with intermittent -SN developing. At this point, with the snow being on the more dry side and powdery with very light intensities, have kept visibilities no lower than 6sm. Cannot rule out a few periods of 4-5sm visibility but confidence is on the lower side of such occurrence at this point. Snow will continue in an intermittent fashion beyond the timeframe of this TAF period, with overall accumulations in the 1-2" range on the MN side from midday Thu to midday Fri, while WI TAFs looks to run in the 2-4" range during the same time.

KMSP...There is a small chance of narrow band of very light snow around daybreak, give or take an hour or so, but the expectation is that the atmosphere will be too dry to have snow reach the surface at that point. The better saturation will occur by midday, so have maintained the start time of -SN into MSP at 16z with intermittent rounds of light snow thereafter. Even with the long duration mention, the intensity will be quite light and accumulation through the afternoon into the evening will be about a half inch or less. Thus, have kept visibility no lower than 6sm at this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SAT...VFR chc MVFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SUN...VFR chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.