textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and freezing drizzle possible this morning from western to south-central MN. Less than an inch of snow is expected.

- Light snow possible across western WI early Thursday morning.

- Gradual warm up this week with the warmest day on Thursday. A slight cool down through the weekend before continued above normal temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this morning shows low stratus covering most of MN. Only the eastern and southeastern portions of MN are still relatively cloud free but the stratus will continue to spread southeast, eventually covering the entire area by mid-morning. A few weather stations in northwest MN are currently reporting flurries and light drizzle. Looking at RAP forecast soundings, the subfreezing thermo profile is saturated mostly beneath the DGZ. Thus, in addition to flurries, a mention of freezing drizzle has been added to the forecast. This precip should continue southeast into south-central MN by sunrise. While little to no snowfall is expected, freezing drizzle could cause slick roads for the morning commute. Highs today will reach the upper teens to lower 20s as mostly cloudy skies will limit heating. WAA will occur this evening into tonight as a mid-level wave digs southeast from south-central Canada into the Upper Midwest. As a result, lows tonight won't fall much with mid teens to near 20 forecast. As the wave moves through northeast MN and into WI, forecast models produce light QPF from northeastern MN into WI late tonight into Thursday morning. At first glance, this QPF should be snow. But, examining forecast soundings shows a disconnect between the saturation of the DGZ and the saturation of the profile below the DGZ. A couple hour period of light snow may occur late Wednesday night before freezing drizzle takes over as the column loses saturation from the top-down. Expecting less than an inch of snowfall with this system across WI, but the freezing drizzle could throw a wrench into the morning commute. Precip should end by mid-morning Thursday while skies clear from west to east during the day. Temperatures will warm substantially as a lobe of the thermal ridge over the western CONUS moves into the Northern Plains. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 30s in west-central WI to lower 40s in southwestern MN.

Freezing drizzle may occur again over WI Thursday night as another weak mid-level impulse passes through the Upper Midwest. Have increased PoPs to 20-30% for our eastern WI counties in coordination with our neighboring offices. Northwesterly winds will also pick up during the night with gusts reaching 30 MPH across MN into Friday afternoon. The warm temperatures will hang around into Friday (highs in the low to mid 30s) until a cold front arrives from the north later Friday. While we will cool into Saturday following the front, temperatures should rebound quickly by the start of next week as the upper-level ridging that had been over the western CONUS shifts east. By Sunday, lower 30s to lower 40s (warmest in southwestern MN) are expected for highs with values looking to only climb higher by Monday. Indeed, NBM currently has nearly all of the CWA exceeding 40 Monday with southwestern MN having a good shot at lower 50s! That's "only" 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year... While long-range models do show us cooling a little bit Tuesday and Wednesday as a weaker low pressure system passes through, temperatures should stay well above normal for nearly all of next week. It sure looks like we will lose most, if not all, of our snowpack by the end of next week, which does not bode well for any outdoor activities relying on snow. We'll have to see if the latter half of February flips to more "wintry" but, as of now, the forecast doesn't look very hopeful.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 603 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Patchy light snow, freezing drizzle, and light fog have developed across western MN overnight and continues early this morning. Precipitation should end by mid morning. IFR conditions are in place there, with improving conditions to the east. Radar indicates a band of precipitation is developing around STC, but so far there haven't been reports of precip at ground level. Low/mid level clouds will linger through the period.

KMSP...Cigs will slowly drop to MVFR levels later this morning and will likely linger into the evening. Currently monitoring radar to the northwest where echoes are developing. As mentioned above, nothing has been reported at ground level yet so have continued with the dry TAF for now. However, an amendment is possible if precip does start to reach the ground.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.