textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Air Quality Alert for much of Minnesota tonight through Sunday evening.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday.

- Tropical airmass arrives by the middle of next week with highs in the 90s expected. Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Aside from a few areas of fair weather cu, today is turning out to be a nice one. Current temperatures range in the low to mid 80s with light winds thanks to surface high pressure overhead. One thing to be aware of though (especially those who are sensitive to air quality), the MN Pollution Control Agency has issued an Air Quality Alert for ground-level ozone concentration across much of Minnesota today through Sunday evening. This alert is not wildfire driven and is focused on the values of ground-level ozone. Ozone is colorless and odorless and results from incoming solar radiation. Therefore for sensitive groups, consider moving outdoor plans indoors until this evening or Sunday morning.

Sunday unfortunately will not feature the plentiful sunshine we are enjoying today. We continue to monitor the progression of two regimes that are expected to converge over the northern plains late Sunday into Monday. The first is an upper-level wave over the southern plains, while the second is an upper-level trough moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest. The southern plains system heads north-northeast through the course of tonight. Cloud cover is expected to increase across southern MN late tonight as this system nears. Forcing as well as increased moisture arrives mid-morning and will create for showers and some rumbles of thunder along the I-90 corridor. By midday, the potential for precip expands northward towards the I-94 corridor. As of now, the strongest likelihood for rainfall is across southern MN. It isn't until the PAC Northwest trough arrives overnight Sunday into Monday that will produce greater coverage for rain and a few storms. So if you live north of a line from Mankato over to Red Wing, daytime Sunday activities should remain relatively dry but it may not hurt to have an umbrella handy to help scare any rain away. Severe storms are not expected with this episode of rain however given increased southerly flow and PWATs nearing 2 inches, heavy downpours could be common. Latest HREF PMMs range QPF from a quarter to a half-inch with a few localized areas seeing higher amounts as rain ends Monday evening.

Tuesday continues to a feature a lull in activity as high pressure builds overhead for the daytime hours. "Soupier" conditions will be felt as much warmer h850 temps advect in from the SW. Dew points forecasted to be in the upper 60s combined with temps near 90 degrees. Another round of precip is expected to late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This precip will only help exacerbate surface conditions to where we will likely see our first heat headlines of the season. Wednesday's heat indices are forecasted to be near 100 degrees. Aside from the heat, our next shot at severe weather looks to be late Wednesday. The forecast remains messy as an upper-level trough moves across the northern CONUS and could produce severe thunderstorms. Currently, the SPC Day 5 features a 15% convective outlook for the Dakotas, MN, and WI. The element that is going to be detrimental, is if the precip late Tuesday into early Wednesday will greatly suppress chances for severe weather Wednesday night. Stay tuned. As for the rest of the week, temperatures return to near normal in the lower 80s to upper 70s as dew points return to the mid- 50s. Aside from a few diurnal chances of summer rain, the latter half of the week appears quieter.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Diurnal CU will dissipate by 01-02Z, then clear skies into early Sunday. High/mid level clouds increase Sunday as deeper moisture arrives. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will push north into southern MN in the afternoon with showers continuing into Sunday night. Light winds tonight will increase southeast and gust to 20-25 kts Sunday afternoon.

KMSP...No concerns tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR, chc MVFR w/TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.