textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather concerns today and tomorrow due to gusty winds and dry conditions.

- Blowing dust possible across western MN today.

- Narrow line of gusty showers with a chance for a few isolated storms is forecast to move eastward across the area this afternoon/early evening. - Widespread rain and thunderstorms return to the Upper Midwest Sunday into early next week. Strong to severe storms are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Thursday and Friday... Today's weather setup is somewhat similar to what we saw on Tuesday with a low tracking to our north across southern Canada. Today is in the warm sector with isolated to scattered showers. Still lots of low level dry air to overcome so only showers/storms with heavier precipitation will be able to overcome this dry air and get rain to the surface. On the storm front instability, like on Tuesday, is low but present and with steep lapse rates cannot be ruled out. So keeping isolated thunderstorms in the forecast. Now as mentioned the low level air remains dry. This dry air combines with gusty winds today caused by the mixing of the LLJ winds down to the surface and tomorrow caused by the typical post-frontal deep mixing that we have seen time and time again this past week. This will provide for critical fire weather both today and tomorrow. Both days will be slightly different though with today being more wind driven and tomorrow more dry RH driven. Today will see RH values low enough combined with winds gusting up to around 40 mph to create the critical fire weather. Tomorrow will see RH values drop into the teens with winds gusting 25 to 30 mph. Both still critical fire weather, but in different ways.

Saturday... Saturday still looks very dry with little moisture recovery from Friday's lows. Thankfully winds aloft are not as high on Saturday as we will be under a slight ridge aloft. So even with diurnal based mixing winds aloft remain low enough to not cause a big increase. This will finally give us a break for fire weather and with rain returning on Sunday this break should continue into early next week. Overall fairly nice start to the weekend on Saturday with highs up around 80 and lighter winds.

Sunday into Next Week...A deep western trough will drive a slow moving surface low providing multiple chances for rain and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. Seeing broad model agreement within the ensemble members that the main round of rain will be Sunday night into Monday. The spread now remains more on how early does it start on Sunday and how late does it last into Monday night/Tuesday morning. This is all more on the more synoptic rainfall side of the system. There is also a mesoscale aspect as shown with the SPC 15% chance of severe Sunday across southern Minnesota and Monday across all of Wisconsin into southern and eastern Minnesota. Sunday's chances for strong to severe storms could be driven by the LLJ and how far north into the Midwest it is able to get. Monday is driven more based on the deep layer shear based on the evolution of the mid and upper levels on a broad basis. Monday's question will be more on how far north and west can the instability get. Instability currently looks to be dependent on the heating the of the lower levels of the atmosphere. If that region remains cool forecast parcel paths would not be able to tap into much instability. If low level warm though it will unlock instability and could tap into that deep layer shear for strong to severe storms. For this reason the chances farther south and east look more likely for thunderstorms on Monday at this point. As the system moves out on Tuesday some rain could linger, but the main event will have passed. A short period of cooler air midweek behind the large system before a gradual warm up into the following weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

There are three main aviation concerns during the 18z TAF period: 1) strong southerly surface winds this afternoon 2) a band of showers/isolated thunder moving eastward this afternoon and evening 3) a period of LLWS following the shower chances tonight as the low-level jet increases.

Most of the MN terminals (especially across western MN) have already reported peak southerly gusts between 30-35kts so far today, which is a trend that will continue through the afternoon. The winds are slightly less intense across western WI, where peak gusts are forecast to top out between 20-25kts. Winds will remain breezy into the evening and will turn westerly overnight behind a cold frontal passage.

A band of broken showers/isolated thunder is taking shape across western MN. Latest hi-res guidance captures this activity continuing in a general ENE direction over the coming hours. This precipitation is tied to a narrow ribbon of instability, which supports a few lightning strikes and locally enhanced wind gusts. We have converted the PROB30's to TEMPOs at AXN & RWF where confidence is currently the highest in -SHRA/TS impacting the terminals. Have maintained PROB30's at the remaining terminals given lower confidence in impacts due to very dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere and the broken nature of the convective activity. A brief period of LLWS is possible as the southwesterly LLJ intensifies tonight. Winds turn westerly heading into Friday morning, with clear skies overhead.

KMSP...No major changes to the 18z TAF. Strong SSE surface winds will persist through the afternoon and into the evening. A brief shower or thunderstorm remains possible between 21-01z, however the broken nature of the anticipated convective activity results in a low confidence forecast involving impacts to MSP. Have opted to maintain a PROB30 and will upgrade as observational trends warrant this afternoon. A period of wind shear is possible following the shower chances this evening prior to a SW to W wind shift tonight. Westerly winds will gust upwards of 20-25kts tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SUN...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind ESE 10-15G30kts. MON...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind SW 15-20G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown- Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Friday for Benton- Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Redwood- Renville-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Red Flag Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Benton- Kanabec-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Stearns-Todd. WI...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for Barron-Polk- Rusk.