textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry with below normal temperatures through this weekend.

- Warming after Monday with a few opportunities for rain/snow mid- next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Visible satellite imagery shows some breaks in the clouds over east- central MN and western WI. But, most of the area remains plagued by broken to overcast low stratus early this afternoon. Light snow has continued across most of the western half of MN as the stratus layer is just within the DGZ. But this snow should only be for looks (with little accumulation) and end by this evening. The gusty northwesterly winds will also slow as we go into tonight. The forecast looks to remain pretty quiet with any increased chances for precipitation not arriving until towards mid-next week. Have bumped up cloud cover to partly to mostly cloudy through Saturday night as forecast soundings show that saturation should stay persistent enough for the low-level stratus to hang around. A few more flurries may be squeezed out from the stratus Saturday afternoon, particularly near RCX.

Still expecting a cool down this weekend as northwesterly flow funnels a Canadian air mass into the Upper Midwest. Lows tonight and Saturday night are forecast to drop into the single digits to mid teens (coldest in western MN). Meanwhile, highs tomorrow will only reach the mid teens in west-central MN to mid to upper 20s in west- central WI. The coldest day of the period continues to look like Sunday as low teens to lower 20s are forecast (coldest in western MN). If you don't like the cold, the good news is temperatures start to rebound by Tuesday as the trailing edge of the upper-level troughing that had been over the eastern CONUS begins to flatten. The northern jetstream will still remain strong and over the Northern Plains through mid week, though. A few shortwave passages look possible in the long-range models during the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe. No significant systems are suggested as of now but 20-40% PoPs exist Tuesday into Wednesday with mixed precipitation types possible given the moderating temperatures. (Rain being more likely during the day when temperatures are warmest, especially in southern MN.) Forecast uncertainty starts to increase towards late next week as models struggle handling timing and placement of individual shortwaves. But, looking at the long- range ensembles, the general trend is towards a more zonal upper- level flow pattern over the central CONUS to end the month. This would lead to a more mild end of February/early March with some additional chances of precipitation as disturbances pass through.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 450 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Low clouds around 1500-3000ft continue to occupy the region, though we have seen considerable thinning today, especially across southwest and central Minnesota. It is likely that most terminals will jump between MVFR and VFR conditions tonight while the SCT/BKN stratus moves across the region. Expect redevelopment tomorrow, making MVFR conditions more common by the afternoon. Northwesterly winds settle at or below 10 kts overnight, then increase to around 10 kts again tomorrow with occasional gusts in the upper teens.

KMSP...The cigs are a low-medium confidence forecast given that we expect at least some low clouds to stick around this evening and overnight, though it is difficult to pinpoint how long any given area will stay SCT versus BKN/OVC.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 15-20kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW becoming SW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW. 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.