textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing snowstorm will slowly wind down through the evening. No major deviations from the forecast occurring with this one.

- Colder than normal conditions continue through the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-zero morning of the season looking likely Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a classic mid-latitude cyclone over the central CONUS. Here in MN and WI, we're within the well defined baroclinic leaf of this system. We have broad ascent across the area, but the cold cloud tops and convective look to the clouds has been down in Iowa, where we've seen some intense mesoscale bands of snow. This broad shield of light to moderate snow for up here was well forecast. From what reports we've gotten so far (4.5" through 2pm at Albert Lea is a good example), it's looking like we're heading toward a ceiling of 8-9 inches down along the I- 90 corridor. Up in the Twin Cities, we're looking at 3 or 4 inches for the south metro, with amounts closer to 2 inches in the north metro. Out in WI, 4 or 5 inches looks to be a reasonable final number for when all is said and done. What will eventually put an end to this snow is the h5 trough currently dropping into eastern NoDak from southern Canada. Subsidence in the wake of this trough will quickly cut off the snow, with the only potential for snow Sunday into Sunday night being the possibility for flurries with any lingering cloud cover, as those clouds will be completely within the DGZ.

Through mid-December, if northwest flow and cold temperatures are your jam, you will love the vibe MN and WI will be giving off. This pattern will also likely feature plenty of snow falling, though it won't add up to much. It's a clipper train type of pattern, but one of those where we'll likely nickle and dime our way to 3-6 inches of snow through the first half of December. As for temperatures, we'll have two challenges. First, we're running 4 to 5 degrees above normal through the fall, which means any bias corrections will now have a high bias, as those biases were developed in a very different environment that didn't include the snowpack we now have. We will likely have to get through most of the second week of December to de- bias the bias corrected data.

As for some specifics, the coldest period of the next week will be Wednesday through Wednesday night behind a strong cold front that will blow through here Tuesday night. Besides the high moving in, skies Wednesday night may end up pretty clear, with the NBM showing lows Thursday morning below zero for the entire MPX area, with some double digit below zero lows in central MN. Depending on what happens with cloud cover, these still may not be cold enough. From a climatology perspective, MSP averages December 10th for seeing the first sub-zero low of the season, so this would be about a week earlier than normal and the earliest we've gone below zero since Thanksgiving morning in 2014 saw a low of -4.

Looking at precipitation, we'll be near the tracks for a clipper wave train for the next week+. The first chance for some light snow will come with the front Tuesday night, then there's a clipper that looks to stay mainly to our north Thursday, then another for Saturday, another early to mid the following week. Hopefully you get the idea, lots of chances for snow, but in all instances 0.25" of QPF would be the top end of what we could expect from any wave, so a nickle and dime approach to building our seasonal snow total.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Snow has began to taper off in western MN and the ending of precip will spread east tonight, with snow ending area-wide by daybreak. LIFR to IFR visibilities are still expected for southern/eastern MN and WI for the next couple of hours before snowfall lessens/stops. MVFR cigs are expected for most of Sunday morning. However, a brief reduction to IFR looks likely for western MN (AXN, RWF) near sunrise. Meanwhile, STC and MSP look to see a brief period of VFR Sunday morning as strato- cumulus lifts just enough to exceed 3000 feet. However, low- level moistening could result in brief periods of MVFR during the afternoon. VFR expected for most terminals Sunday evening, but RWF and MKT look to see MVFR as stratus arrives from the southwest. North-northwesterly winds will gust to 20-25 knots through this morning before slowing to under 5 knots and turning westerly Sunday evening.

KMSP...Visibilities of 1 1/2sm expected until about 08Z before snow ends. A multi-hour period of VFR looks likely from 13-17Z Sunday as strato-cu lifts above 3000 feet. However, cigs should sink back to MVFR for the afternoon before returning to VFR Sunday evening/night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...MVFR chc IFR cigs late. Wind SW 5-10kts. TUE...MVFR chc IFR cigs. Chc -sn overnight. Wind SW 5-10kts. WED...MVFR cigs likely. Chc -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Carver- Chippewa-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod- Meeker-Ramsey-Renville-Scott-Sibley-Swift-Washington- Wright-Yellow Medicine. Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for Blue Earth- Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Steele- Waseca-Watonwan. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for Goodhue-Le Sueur-Rice. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.