textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm temperatures continue this afternoon with record highs expected. A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to western and central Minnesota Monday, with much cooler air arriving area wide by Tuesday.

- The next chance for widespread precip arrives Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A nearly stationary front is located from near Brainerd to Willmar and Canby at 2 PM. Temperatures have risen back into the 80s east of the front, with 70s to the west. Some readings across southern MN are approaching 90. STC and EAU are within a few degrees of breaking their record highs and MSP has already broke the record high of 85 with 86 around 145 PM. Highs late this afternoon will be about 3 or 4 degrees warmer than current readings.

The front will very slowly sink south tonight and become stationary again Monday from southwest MN to northwest WI. A few weak areas of low pressure will track along the front late tonight and Monday. Mid and high level clouds will increase this evening, but no precipitation is expected through tonight. As the main low approaches from the southwest, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop along and north of the front in the afternoon. Early day cloudiness is expected to decrease some during the morning, allowing for sufficient heating. The boundary layer will remain quite dry and temperatures aloft will be warm, which should limit coverage of any development. The temperature contract along the front won't be as impressive as today across the Dakotas, but it will be noticeably cooler north with highs in the 70s vs 80s to the south. The low will track across southeast MN Monday evening when the front will clear the area to the south. Highs by Tuesday will range from the 50s across northern and west central MN, to upper 60s across southern MN.

A large trough and upper low over the Rockies midweek will track east Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile, another trough will be diving southeast across the Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday. There remains a large range of solutions how these two features will interact, but the trend has been toward a drier forecast with phasing occurring east of the region. Even cooler air will follow through Saturday. Widespread 20s and 30s for lows Friday night may end the growing season for many. Another warming trend will follow Sunday and into early next week with highs returning back into the 60s and perhaps 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions expected with some high clouds and light winds overnight. On Monday, a slow moving cold front will approach from the northwest. Expect light and variable winds along the front. Once the front moved through, the winds will become northwest, and some MVFR clouds are possible in its wake.

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout. The main challenge is the wind direction on Monday right along the passing front. However, winds will be light, less than 05 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE bcmg W 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.