textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming, with temperatures peaking on Tuesday in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Tuesday.

- Mixed precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday. Colder temperatures to follow on Thursday.

- Light snow possible Thursday afternoon post-frontal passage. Minor accumulations up to half an inch are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A surge of much warmer air has arrive across the central US as we appear to place Winter "on-hold" for the next two weeks. Jokes aside, our temperatures have warmed into the 20s with an uptick in sunshine as we head into the afternoon hours. Overall - a much more pleasant stretch of weather than the previous several days of Arctic cold. Tonight's low temperatures will be some 30+ degrees warmer than Sunday morning's with most of us starting in the mid to upper teens. Winds remain light but will increase on Tuesday as the torch begins. Cloud cover may limit how warm it will end up on Tuesday, but Td's look at or above freezing for a few hours so some snow pack loss is likely. Wednesday & Thursday will be mild but Td's are lower and that should allow our snow pack to hang on until cooler temperatures arrive Thursday afternoon. The primary weather concern this period falls between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon with some frontal precipitation that appears to be a rain to rain/sleet/snow mix Wednesday. Falling temperatures & snow melt may lead to a flash freeze scenario on Thursday. Any QPF that falls here appears to be a few hundredths at best - far from a big rain, sleet, or snowfall event but enough to be annoying. The day shift continued to remove any mention of freezing rain as forecast soundings do not support it. Thursday afternoon has a signal for another several hundredths of QPF that will fall as snow in a cold air advection regime. Temperatures bottom out 5 to 15 below zero Thursday night as a brief punch of Arctic cold hits us before quickly moving eastward on Friday.

Temperatures will trend back to a cooler, but seasonable range Friday into next week. High temperatures should fall in the 20s with lows remaining mild(er) in the mid to upper teens. The over night low temperatures will likely remain very warm when compared to climatological averages & why we'll see everyone promote a stretch of high confidence above normal temperatures, except during the day it's still what we conceptualize as Winter. We're not breaking out the t-shirts and shorts but it will not be dangerously cold. This pattern change will be driven by strong -WPO ridging over the Alaska Aleutian islands & a Scandinavian block set up. There is some hope by the new year we'll begin to transition toward a more active pattern but there is a lot of "low confidence" beyond day 5 given the blocking previously mentioned. Locally, there is higher confidence that we will remain quite dry outside of our one precipitation event in addition to the warmer temperatures. Shortwave clipper-type systems may pop up as we near closer, similarly to Thursday's system, but for now there isn't a big storm on the horizon.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Some patchy MVFR fog has developed across parts of MN late this evening. The fog should dissipate late overnight as south winds increase and mid level clouds increase. Winds will become west and increase further with gusts in the 20s possible. Stronger winds aloft will create some wind shear late tonight or Tuesday morning through early tomorrow evening.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR to MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. THU...MVFR. Wind S early, bcmg NW 15-20G30kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.