textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures well above normal through Saturday.

- Snow melt will continue. Most locations should lose their snow cover over the next 24 to 48 hours.

- Quiet weather expected throughout the next week, except for a chance for light isolated rain showers along a cold front Sunday PM.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1109 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Another pleasant mid-March day has played out across the region. Lingering areas of dense fog were slow to burn off along the Minnesota River valley this morning yet there hasn't been a significant impact on temperatures so far. Highs have been increased to match observational trends & should end up in the upper 40s to mid 50s in the Twin Cities, E MN, and W WI. The one area to watch is our W MN counties that are a trailing behind the forecast due to that lingering fog... but mid 50s are already present just SW of the fog bank. Winds turn to the SE and increase this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will give way to broken mid-level deck building in from the Dakotas late this afternoon and evening. Temperatures cool this evening and lows will be in the 30s. Our fog chances tonight into Friday are much less than they were this morning. Guidance keeps a light wind present across the region and cloud cover should prevent temperatures from cooling down to the Td. This present a less favorable environment for fog development Friday morning.

Friday & Saturday will continue to warm. Our snow pack will continue to melt and lose influence over the temperatures. Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s but it will likely remain mostly cloudy. Saturday will be the peak of the warm up as a thermal ridge moves through during the daytime. There is higher confidence than yesterday given the melt rate of our snow pack & better agreement among guidance for our high temperatures to push well into the 60s on Saturday. Highs should top out near 70 in the Twin Cities while mid to upper 70s are possible in SW MN. The NBM has done a reasonable job "catching up" to the warmer trend on Saturday. The 925mb temperatures forecast on Saturday continue to impress with values in the +18 to +22C range on the ECMWF. That's big time warmth and it wouldn't shock me to see temperatures push 80 in extreme S/SW MN Saturday afternoon.

Cooler temperatures arrive Sunday behind a cold front. Guidance highlights a slight chance of showers that are associated with the frontal passage Sunday. Any precipitation should be light based on forecast soundings showing rather meager forcing tied to it. Looking ahead to next week, we'll remain dry with seasonable temperatures. The culprit continues to be the impressive upper level ridge over the SW CONUS. This ridging will dominate the pattern across the western half of the country through next week. This will keep the storm track off to our north and our temperatures rather pleasant.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1109 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

All sites have improved back to VFR visibility and should remain there until early Friday morning. Winds will turn from the east-northeast to the south-southeast this afternoon. Speeds will increase to 5 to 8kts remain there through the end of the period. A mid-level cloud deck will build in by the late afternoon with heights around 10kft. Less confident on fog development tonight, but have added TEMPO groups to locations with higher confidence.

KMSP...Another round of fog is possible after 08-10z Friday. I have opted for a TEMPO group with MVFR visibility while prevailing 6SM BR. Forecast support a less favorable environment than this morning as wind speeds remain light, but not calm.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SE to SW 5-10kts. SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR late. Wind N 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW to S 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.