textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions continue across west-central and southwest Minnesota this afternoon and evening.

- Widespread thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon and evening. The strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado is also possible.

- Near-normal highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s this weekend into next week. Tracking precipitation chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

SW'ly downsloping winds off of the Buffalo Ridge have made conditions nice and toasty this afternoon across western MN. Current temperatures range in the low to mid 90's with gusts between 30 to 40 mph. This pattern will continue to support critical fire weather conditions for much of western MN this evening. Winds will ease up a little bit but not completely as warm advection along side developing clouds overnight will keep lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

By early Thursday morning, a stacked low pressure system will sweep across the northern plains into southern Manitoba and Ontario. This will situate the baroclinic zone perfectly over MN/WI. Southerly flow should make the air feel more sticky as both our dew points rise into the lower 60s and surface temperatures into the 70s. By early afternoon, a cold front develops over the Dakotas and is progressed through Minnesota into Wisconsin. A few isolated showers could develop prior to the front's passage tomorrow morning however the main CI is not expected until early afternoon. Scattered cells will develop somewhere over west-central MN and move eastward then quickly congealing into a quasi-linear line. All hazards will be in play but damaging winds and large hail look to be the most probable. However, QLCS' do have an increased potential to produce quickly developing tornadoes, so ultimately we cannot rule out a tornado potential. The best severe weather environment remains mainly east of I-35. For those between I-35 to Lake Mille Lacs down to Redwood Falls, can still anticipate a rain shower and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. One additional concern with this scenario is the increased PWATs between 1.2 " and 1.3" which does serve as a favorable proxy for heavy rain. This likelihood again, looks best over our western Wisconsin counties as the QPF maxima ranging between 1.0" to 1.5" resides east of Rice Lake down to near Lake Pepin, WI. Areas west could see mainly 0.5" up to 1.0" of rain. Localized higher amount will be possible where heavy rain occurs.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, temperatures will fall back to more seasonal levels behind the departing system on Friday. Conditions should be a relatively through the weekend with dry weather and highs in the upper 50s/low 60s each day. Widespread rainfall chances return to the forecast late Sunday/early Monday as a shortwave within the southwesterly Pacific jet lifts towards the Upper Midwest. Early week rain chances followed by continued troughing over southern Canada will keep temperatures near-nomral values in the extended period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR with breezy/gusty winds through this afternoon. Low-to-mid level clouds will increase in coverage through late morning, with MVFR ceilings likely from around sunrise onward for much of the day into this evening, in response to an approaching cold front. SHRA will develop in advance of the front, with TSRA looking more likely for mainly southern-eastern MN into western WI. Conditions may drop to IFR, mainly in response to visibilities in heavy-but-brief downpours.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings may arrive as early as 10z, but very likely by midday, as chances for precipitation increase during the morning but likely in the afternoon. TSRA still look likely mid-to-late afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts becoming S. SUN...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts. MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA. Wind E 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.