textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers and even a few rumbles of thunder spread across the area this evening.

- Rain transitions over to snow across portions of central Minnesota Wednesday. Snow accumulations of 1-2" are expected in central Minnesota.

- Turning colder late week with another chance for accumulating snow Thursday night/Friday - mainly across the southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

It's another quiet and mild night across southern MN and western WI, though changes are near with the strong shortwave on water vapor imagery moving across Utah early this morning. Ahead of this shortwave, we're seeing lee cyclogenesis developing over WY, with a thermal gradient sharpening along a stationary front that goes from that developing low in Wyoming, southeast to Sioux City and across Iowa to the north of I-80. By the afternoon, a surface low will bottom out in the lower 980s near Cheyenne. This low will track across SoDak this afternoon and evening, ending up in central MN Wednesday morning. For Wednesday through Wednesday night, this low will fill in as it slowly drifts from central MN into northwest WI. Given this track, the heaviest precipitation from this system is expected to fall across northern MN, with onshore flow off of Lake Superior resulting in the potential for some 2 foot plus snow totals up in the Lutsen area.

Locally with this system, we'll see increasing southeast winds through the day as the surface low pushes across SoDak. By the afternoon, we'll see fairly strong isentropic lift develop as h85 winds increase into the 40-60kt range. This will result in the development of a band precip this afternoon along roughly the I-94 corridor. However, forecast soundings show a very dry wedge of air at h7 sitting beneath this bit of mid-level forcing, so it's uncertain how long it will take this band of precip to overcome this dry sub-cloud layer to reach the ground. Current model consensus would say this doesn't happen until this band of precip is north of I-94 across central MN into northwest WI, with it quickly moving north of the MPX area. Around 00z, with the surface low over eastern SoDak, an area of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the main PV anomaly. These showers and storms will track ENE across western/central MN this evening and overnight, arcing out ahead of the low and occluded front. Looking at updraft helicity on the HREF, you see a few UH tracks out in western MN this evening, so some small hail will likely be possible with the strongest convection that develops. After midnight, this band of showers with the PV anomaly will meet up with the ongoing fgen/isentropic precip in northern MN and that is when the winter storm will really kick into high gear to our north. For the MPX area, the dry slot will pretty much dry us out late tonight into Wednesday morning, but Wednesday morning into the afternoon, we will see a band of wrap around moisture work in to the south of the surface low. This wrap around precip is where our chances for snow comes in, but just how far south and east this wrap around precip makes it is uncertain. Strong CAA will change the p-type over to snow during the day on Wednesday across central MN. Current forecast has 1-2" of snow up in northern Todd county and surrounding areas, though we may not be strong enough in dropping temperatures on Wednesday. If we indeed see a more aggressive transition to snow than currently forecast, then a band of 1-3" of snow will be possible across much of central MN that could reach as far southeast as the Twin Cities.

On Thursday, light snow should continue through much of the day over northern MN with the surface low slowly spinning over northern Wisconsin. However, as our first low slowly fills in, another shortwave coming out of CO on Thursday will result in a surface low tracking from roughly KC, to the Quad Cities and Green Bay. This is a favorable track for accumulating snow across southeast MN into western WI, though model spread remains high in just how strong this secondary surface low ends up being. For us to get some accumulating snow out of this, we definitely need to hit the stronger end of the model spectrum, which is where the ECMWF/EPS continues to reside. Given that the majority of EPS members have this stronger surface cyclone Thursday night, the NBM and our current forecast currently leans into the direction of a stronger low Thursday night, though there's still potential that the current forecast is a bit too optimistic for the snow lovers out there in southeast MN and western WI if the weaker low pans out.

For next weekend, we'll have upper troughing overhead, with ample opportunities for seeing more shortwave activity. This will likely keep us cloudy with on/off periods of light snow. The bigger story though for next weekend is that with a 1050mb high nosing in from the Canadian Prairies, we'll see our first bout of below normal temperatures since the beginning of February. The core of the cold air will remain to our west, but we'll get into the cold air enough to see lows in the single digits and highs in the low-mid 20s. Going into next week, we'll see upper ridging and milder temperatures return, with the next chance for precip showing up in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe (24th and 25th), though given a warmer airmass returning, it will likely mean another chance for mixed precip. We had a promising start the winter at the beginning of December, though this winter season doesn't look like it will exactly stick the landing.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Winds increase out of the E/SE today, generally gusting up to 25 to 30 kts. There are several moving parts to the forecast, with periods of rain and snow both possible. Rain showers are expected to develop this evening, mainly impacting AXN & STC, though brief impacts are possible for MSP, RNH, MKT, and EAU. As the low pressure moves through the region, a dry slot should limit overnight precip for areas south of AXN & STC. At the same time, a period of LLWS should develop for areas north of RWF & MKT. Winds weaken overnight, but eventually shift out of the southwest throughout Wednesday morning. A second wave of precip, likely a mix of rain and snow, transitioning to all snow for areas further north, is possible Wednesday afternoon.

Cigs start off VFR this afternoon, with most sites dropping to MVFR or IFR tonight. Cigs could hold MVFR/IFR during the day tomorrow, though it'll depend on the northern extent of the dry slot. There will likely be a tight cutoff from low stratus to VFR and mostly clear skies.

KMSP...Most likely timing for any rain will be during the evening and early morning hours. There is potential that the showers linger past 08z, though confidence is too low to include at this time. Expect dry conditions before a potential switchover to rain/snow mix during the day Wednesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind N 10-15 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN early. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.