textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog Wednesday & Thursday mornings.

- Widespread rain Friday transitions over to a wintry mix of rain, snow, & potentially freezing rain Saturday.

- Chance of thunderstorms Friday across southern Minnesota.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Pleasant early Spring weather continues through Thursday with light winds & daytime highs warming into the 50s. However, we'll likely see areas of dense fog develop during the overnight & morning hours both days as melting snow during the day coupled with calm winds & areas of clear skies lead to prime conditions for fog. Where exactly is tough to say as we will have patches of cloud cover that will limit the radiational cooling potential, but the fog threat looks highest across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

The weather remains warm, but becomes more active Friday as an area of low pressure tracks northeastwards from the central plains through Iowa. The track of the low & most of the precipitation with this system will remain off to our south, but there will be enough moisture streaming into the area ahead of & north of the low to create a soaking rainfall for most of the area, with ensemble guidance suggesting we'll see around 0.5-1" of QPF through Saturday. Precipitation will come in a few waves with this system with widespread rain showers & even a few thunderstorms expected Friday, then a relative lull late Friday early Saturday, followed by light precipitation in the wrap- around region behind the low Saturday morning. We'll likely see some thunderstorms with the initial round of showers Friday, & even a chance for some stronger thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds across southern Minnesota should the timing of the system bring the showers in Friday afternoon. ANother time to watch will be with the light precipitation Saturday morning, as models remain mixed on just how much temperatures will cool behind the system. A wintry mix of rain & snow looks most likely, but we could end up seeing a swath of accumulating snow should the coldest solutions verify, or even some areas of freezing rain/sleet if temperatures remain warm above the surface. Probably still too early to have a good handle on the precip timing & type at the moment, but plan on rain Friday, followed by some sort of cold rain & wintry mix into Saturday morning.

Despite a relative cool-down Saturday behind the system, our early start to Spring continues into next week as the jet stays north of the US/Canada border & ensemble guidance highlights temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees above normal. Highs in the 60s looks possible Sunday, & Sunday shows some early potential of being a very warm day as the AIFS ensemble suggests anomalies as much as 30F above normal. Winter is expected to return for the middle of March however, as a large weather system over the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday ushers in a pronounced stretch of below-normal weather. Most of the precipitation with this system again looks to be south & east of our area, but we'll have to monitor the potential for snow next Wednesday as when the cooldown begins.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Early evening satellite captures MVFR stratus across western and southern MN and clear skies over eastern MN and western WI. Mild southerly flow over whats left of the melting snowpack will set the stage for the development of low ceilings/ground fog overnight. Forecast soundings tend to favor stratus over fog across western MN, so opted to limit visibility reductions at AXN/RWF. Low-level saturation increases late tonight across eastern MN and western WI, so have included more notable visibility reductions at RNH/EAU. Both sites now have TEMPOs for 1/2SM FG from 10z-14z. Low stratus and fog should mix out of the picture by late Wednesday morning.

KMSP...VFR to open the period with an MVFR cig ~2k feet developing overnight. With patchy ground fog possible, added in a 6SM BR mention. VFR conditions are forecast to return by late morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR -RA BR. Wind SE 5-15 kts, bcmg N late. SAT...MVFR/IFR -RA/SN early. VFR PM. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.