textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory in effect late tonight through early Sunday morning for portions of western and central MN and western WI.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across portions of western and central Minnesota.

- Next best chance for rain arrives late Monday into Tuesday with low-end chances for the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Despite increased winds and chilly temps this afternoon, it is a nice afternoon. Aloft, an upper-level low loiters over southern Hudson Bay which in turns keeps the western periphery of its parent trough over Minnesota and Wisconsin. This has allowed for continued northwesterly flow and cold advection. At the surface, banded streets of low-level cu have developed in the wake of a surface cold front which has departed to our south and east early this morning. This FROPA did also provide a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch of liquid mainly across central Minnesota into portions of western Wisconsin. Surface high pressure continues to build in from the north today which means northwesterly surface wind gusts remain breezy between 20 to 30 mph. Combining these wind speeds with cooler high temps and lower dew points, there remains concerns for elevated fire weather conditions through the rest of this afternoon for portions of western and central Minnesota. Skies will remain mostly sunny for this evening into tonight which should allow for low temperatures to dip into the mid-30s to near 40 in the core TC metro. Therefore have issued a Frost Advisory for much of western MN and central MN and portions of western WI late tonight through early tomorrow morning. By Sunday, the aforementioned surface high will be directly overhead. The forecast will be similar to today's although winds wont be as breezy. Sunday night's lows look to be the coldest of the week (upper 20s to mid 30s) and may likely warrant the potential for freeze headlines across central MN into western WI for late Sunday into Monday morning.

As we head into next week, a shortwave through moves in from the northwest into the northern plains. As mentioned in previous discussion, ensemble guidance continues to advertise for widespread rainfall potential late Monday into Tuesday. Highest confidence remains along and north of I-94 and east of I-35 corridor for some measurable rainfall. The "how much do we get?" question is still on the table as EPS guidance does loose confidence for areas receiving greater than a 0.1". Still cannot rule out a low potential for thunder which will help a few areas see locally higher rainfall amounts. By midweek, thermal ridging pushes further eastward allowing for greater WAA to bring temperatures back to slightly above normal for early May (highs in the mid 70s/lows in the lower 50s). A couple of shortwaves do look to bring additional rain chances later in the week however they do not look as promising as Tuesday's system so kept low-end PoP mentions late in the period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 711 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. This TAF set is primarily a wind forecast. While directions will be from the NW through tomorrow, speeds will be the main impact. Breezy/gusty winds will persist until around 02z-03z then steadily diminish to under 5kts for the late evening and overnight hours, then pick up once again after sunrise Sunday to become breezy/gusty once again but not as much as today.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison- Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.