textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- The passage of a strong cold front today will bring scattered thunderstorms. As of 1pm, the severe weather risk is mainly across western Wisconsin.

- Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards across western Wisconsin, and the risk for tornadoes increases as you head east.

- Much colder air is expected for the weekend with possibly a few snow showers but with no snow accumulation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Today: Early afternoon satellite and radar imagery showed storms across central and western Minnesota. These storms were behind a strong cold front that as of 1pm were generally along the I-35 corridor. At Jackson Minnesota, the temperature dropped 22 degrees in 41 minutes earlier today!

Meanwhile, a few storms were developing ahead of the cold front, and these are the ones that could produce large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes later this afternoon. For this afternoon, severe thunderstorm watches and tornado watches have been issued for a few counties in far eastern MN, and much of Wisconsin.

There is strong forcing for severe weather, meaning the CAP will not hold. However, we expect storms to quickly develop which could lead to destructive interference. But the overall environment does support strong to severe storms through roughly 3 to 5 pm in our area, and then we expect the convection to be east of Rusk, Chippewa, and Eau Claire counties. As for the rain threat, these storms will be moving quickly, so most locations will have less than an inch.

Tonight through Thursday:

Once the storms exit the region, northwest winds will continue to bring in cold air overnight, with lows falling below freezing across the region. The cold air will continue though Saturday, with highs only in the mid 40s, and breezy northwest winds continuing, keeping wind chills near freezing throughout the day.

On Sunday, high pressure will build in and temperatures will be a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 40s. The real warmth returns on Monday, with highs back in the 60s. This is in response to upper level ridging building across the central CONUS, and warm air advection overspreading across the region.

This ridge will also keep the region dry through Wednesday. On Thursday troughing from the west will bring increased moisture across the region, and high chances (50 to 70) for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Main concern in the short term is showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but they should diminish from west to east during the late afternoon and into the evening as a cold front continue to move through the region. This will bring northwest winds and MVFR ceilings. Ceilings will start raise, and expect mostly VFR conditions on Saturday.

KMSP... Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with northwest winds and MVFR ceilings. Then ceilings will lift and expect VFR conditions after that.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 10kts becoming S 10G20kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts becoming NW.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.