textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected throughout this forecast period with above normal temperatures returning over the weekend and continuing through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A few notable updates to the forecast to pass along this evening:

First, GOES satellite loop and surface observations display the ongoing rapid erosion of stratus over south central MN. Short term guidance has struggled with persistence of this stratus, but recent trends suggest that the advection of drier air within the northerly flow regime is winning out. Have significantly decreased sky cover tonight across most of the forecast area. Did keep slightly higher sky cover mention across far southwestern MN where stratus should persist the longest. In addition, opted to keep some higher sky cover across the far eastern portions of western WI, as these communities remain downwind of a favorable NE fetch off of Lake Superior supporting additional stratus tonight.

Second, have lowered temperatures tonight in response to the clear skies which will work in tandem with light winds and a cold air mass aloft to promote efficient cooling. New forecast package includes lows in the mid 20s across central MN, the upper 20s across western MN, and the low 30s across southern MN and western WI. We'll monitor temperature trends this evening and may need to decrease lows a few more degrees. Of note, it's looking more plausible that MSP may observe the first freeze of the Fall season tomorrow morning...we'll keep an eye on the obs!

Updated grids that reflect these changes have been sent.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

With the large stacked low responsible for all the rainfall now spread from the eastern Great Lakes into eastern Canada, cooler and drier central Canadian high pressure is making inroads into the north-central CONUS. Low clouds are still lingering around the western periphery of the deep low along with a trailing weak low-level trough in the wake of this system. The cloud cover will remain over the southern half of MN and most of WI through tonight and the first half of tomorrow, finally breaking up a bit tomorrow afternoon, then the clouds are expected to return Friday night into Saturday morning. These clouds will actually have a fairly significant impact on temperatures, shrinking down the diurnal range more than in previous forecasts. Highs both today and Friday will remain in the 40s, while lows will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s both tonight and Friday night. (The more significant impact are those lows Friday night into Saturday morning which previously looked to reach hard freeze territory, but now appear to stay warmer than previous forecasts.) As this high pressure airmass moves slowly southeast across the region, the low thick low level moisture will not have much of an opportunity to be scoured out, at least not until Sunday when a dry cold front swings through the region, pushing the moisture finally out of the Upper Midwest.

We will see an increase in temperatures Sunday-Monday with more mixing which will make for a decrease in cloud cover starting Sunday, followed by brief warm-sectoring on Monday ahead of another dry cold front expected to push through late Monday. Highs on Sunday will creep into the mid-upper 50s followed by highs peaking in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Behind that Monday cold front, high temperatures will fall back down to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s with lows mainly in the 30s but with no hard freezes expected.

As for precipitation, none can be expected in the WFO MPX coverage area through at least the next week and potentially through the middle of November. So this will allow the soaking rains received over the past few days to infiltrate the ground, elevate lakes and rivers and put some dents into the prolonged drought conditions across the Upper Midwest.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Early evening satellite captures widespread MVFR stratus over south central MN and western WI, along with clear skies over northern MN. The satellite loop depicts efficient erosion of the northern edge of the stratus, which has allowed for an earlier than anticipated return to VFR conditions at AXN. Latest guidance does not have a particularly confident handle on the evolution of the stratus tonight, but have opted to follow observational trends and take the 00z TAF package in a much more optimistic direction. STC, RNH, MSP, & EAU are forecast to improve to VFR within the first few hours of the period. It will take longer for stratus to clear out of MKT and RWF (possible until daybreak or just beyond). Winds diminish this evening and will remain light for much of the 00z period.

KMSP...Trended the 00z MSP TAF in a much more optimistic direction following observational trends to the northeast of the terminal. Satellite shows clearing of MVFR stratus approaching RNH at initiation, which should translate to a return to VFR conditions at MSP by 02-03z. Evolution of ceilings overnight into Friday is somewhat of a lower confidence scenario, but with the clearing underway and high pressure/drier air moving in, continued with an optimistic trend.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.