textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms continue through this weekend across western Minnesota.

- Better chance for more widespread thunderstorms midweek.

- Above-normal temperatures continue through at least early June.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Regional radar shows reflectivity increasing early this morning as moisture continues to stream north across western MN. Any precipitation has struggled to reach the ground though, with only a handful of sites reporting rain. A north-south oriented stationary front remains draped over western MN, keeping any scattered showers and storms on the far western side of the state today and tomorrow. To the east, it will remain a pretty solid weekend as easterly winds keep dewpoints in the 50s and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Model guidance continues to focus in on Wed/Thu for our next round of rain as a shortwave develops in western Canada and attempts to flatten out the ridge that's been parked overhead. The surface response would be enough to generate a few rounds of rain as the wave progresses east. The NBM continues to populate 40-70% PoPs Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning, which is reasonable given the synoptic forcing and off and on chances for rain.

Typically you need a large weather system to break a persistent pattern, and it continues to look like this shortwave will not be enough to break us out of this anomalously warm stretch. Ensemble guidance favors temperature anomalies of 5-10 degrees above normal for early June, with lows near 60 and highs in the mid 80s into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Solid VFR conditions expected with upper level ceilings lasting throughout this duration. Mid-level fair wx stratocumulus expected during the daylight hours today with winds also increasing from 5-10kts at initialization to around 15G25kts this afternoon, and those speeds continuing through tonight. The only -SHRA mention continues to be at RWF as the bulk of potential showers this afternoon look to be in southwestern MN. Introduced VCSH this morning as progressive intermittent -SHRA drift near/over RWF this morning, with the chance for additional showers this afternoon. All other TAF sites are expected to remain dry.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON-TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...Mainly VFR. Chance P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10 kts. THU...SHRA likely. Chance TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.