textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Wildfire smoke will improve, but could return behind the frontal passage later today (highest chance for more smoke is in WI).

- One more day of dangerous heat today until a cold front helps to cool us down.

- Isolated showers and storms possible along the front this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The main feature driving our weather impacts over the next day will be the front across the Dakotas. Ahead of this front will be mainly southerly flow which will have two impacts, one good and one bad. The good impact is that it will transport the smoke away from us as the fire sources are to the north of us. The bad will be that this WAA will keep today quite hot. For this reason the Extreme Heat Warning for the Twin Cities metro continues and a Heat Advisory was issued across much of Minnesota. This is tied more to WBGT values rather than the heat index. WBGT takes other fields like wind, cloud cover, and sun angle into account past the simpler temperature and humidity used in heat index. WBGT values are forecast to be in the 85 to 88 range which suggests that heat stress can occur with work in the sun after 30 minutes. So if you are a sensitive population (old, young, or sick) avoiding work outside is best and if you are not a sensitive population make sure to take frequent breaks in a cool place and drink plenty of water. This will all change as the cold front advances to the southeast today. The SPC has given a marginal risk for strong to severe storms today as an unstable environment with marginal shear will be present ahead of this front from east central MN into west central WI. Farther north and west the environment will have less time to destabilize ahead of the frontal passage. This looks to be a isolated wind and hail threat with shear profiles not favorable for tornados. Behind that cold front winds will shift such that some smoke could move back in. HRRR smoke suggests that the greatest risk would be over Wisconsin as the flow behind the front would be more northwest and much of the smoke could miss a large chunk of Minnesota. In addition as this same system moves through the area with the fires there could be some rain to help in reducing the intensity of the wildfires. In summary if the fires continue at a similar strength smoke could return in similar strength for Wisconsin with lighter smoke possible to the west in Minnesota. Parts of Minnesota would be in the main path of the smoke as well, but that is more in WFO Duluth's area, check their forecast information for details in northeast Minnesota.

High pressure moves in with cooler temperatures on Saturday. Still above normal temperatures, but finally having highs in the 80s instead of 90s. For this reason the heat warnings and advisories are set to expire Friday night. This doesn't last long as WAA returns on Sunday sending highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Along with this warm up comes the best chance for rain over the next week late Sunday into Monday. A shortwave trough moving through southern Canada will drive this next round. With this track there remains spread in ensemble guidance in how far south and west PoPs should go. It remains up north closer to the international border where chances are more consistent. What is consistent though is much cooler air advecting in behind this system. This will bring near to below normal temperatures from Tuesday through the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Lingering smoke will continue to slowly move out through the morning hours with only EAU still see a reduction into MVFR. Overall a return to VFR is expected today with generally light winds. Some of the usual spots could see some gusts into the mid teens this afternoon during peak heating. Winds will generally be shifting through the day today starting from the south shifting to the west this evening and northwest Friday night. There is a chance for a quick round of showers this evening with the best chances in western Wisconsin, so a PROB30 was added for both WI terminals.

KMSP...Removed the smoke chances with the wind shift tomorrow as while some smoke may move in chances for it to cause a reduction to MVFR are not as high.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA PM. Wind S 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Chc -RA AM. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago- Douglas-Faribault-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sherburne- Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka- Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington. WI...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for Pierce-Polk-St. Croix.