textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch for heavy rain and flash flood potential due to training thunderstorms tonight across central MN.

- Isolated to scattered severe storms expected for west-central MN south of the heaviest rainfall.

- Heavy rain and severe weather risk shift to eastern MN and western WI for Wednesday.

- Drier and much warmer pattern expected this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Tonight into Wednesday... The primary forecast concern continues to be the potential for very heavy rain amounts and localized flash flooding tonight across central Minnesota. There are several factors that point towards this being a prime environment for flooding; favorable soundings with long and skinny CAPE profiles, warm cloud layer depth over 12k ft, PWATs within the 99th percentile for early July, and relatively slow cloud layer winds parallel to the boundary. The one caveat is that many of the hi-res models have struggled to capture the morning convection that tracked across eastern SoDak and western Minnesota. While these storms may end up limiting storm development later today, the more likely impact is that we see the stationary boundary set up further south than what the model consensus has been up to this point. In fact, you are already beginning to see that shift with the some of the latest 18z model runs (including the HRRR and RRFS). Wherever this boundary officially sets up, will be the axis for the highest rain amounts overnight. As the LLJ increases tonight, efficient moisture advection and lift will occur on the nose of the jet (near the stationary boundary). As storms go up along the boundary, they will push east, leaving space for more storms to build behind them. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" are expected, with localized amounts of 4 or more inches possible within this zone of training storms. The HREF ensemble max amounts peak around 5-6". A Flood Watch has been issued to highlight this potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding due to training thunderstorms across central MN overnight.

The convection this morning and afternoon should limit the overall severe threat tonight, or at the very least keep the majority of it south of I-94 withing the moist/unstable warm sector. The greatest severe threat would be damaging winds and large hail, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out given low LCLs.

The boundary shifts south tomorrow, shifting the heavy rain and severe weather risk with it as well. This will put eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin under the main risks, with severe wind and hail the main threats. Depending on how far south the boundary sets up, southeast MN may be looking at a higher risk for any flooding given the recent heavy rain across the region just a few days ago. A Flood Watch is not as likely tomorrow, though it a short fused alert may be leveraged if needed.

Thursday into Next Week... Any lingering rain should be mostly wrapped by Thursday, bringing us to a stretch of drier weather with upper level heights building overhead. There continues to be a strong signal for prolonged heat. Humidity is expected to be not as dramatic as our previous stint of heat, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This will be the main talking point after getting past our active weather tonight and tomorrow.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Broad swath of rain with embedded thunderstorms has started making its way ESE over central MN. Fairly high confidence that all TAF sites north of RWF-MKT will see a combination of RA/TSRA for multiple periods during the first half of this TAF period, with conditions likely into MVFR and possibly IFR. After this morning round of convection, there is a chance of an additional round of RA/TSRA mid-to-late afternoon Wednesday, mainly for southern- eastern MN into western WI. The earlier timeframe has the better confidence, thus have used TEMPO for the earlier timeframe then transitioned to PROB30s for the later timeframe. Winds will also be tricky with the surface front responsible for the precipitation sitting across MN/WI throughout this TAF period. Speeds under 10kt expected throughout but the directions may run variable from time to time, and winds may have sharp directional changes along with brief increases in speed near and within TSRA.

KMSP...VFR to start with passing high clouds at initialization. First window for RA/TSRA looks to come a few hours prior to and then through sunrise (thus potentially impacting morning push traffic). Currently have conditions within MVFR but IFR conditions due to visibility in heavier rain and/or low ceilings cannot be ruled out. Clouds then remain in place throughout the day with some uncertainty as to whether an additional round of convection develops early-mid afternoon. Currently have that second/later round as a PROB30 and will need to see how models evolve that round. But, TSRA still viable in that afternoon round so have kept its mention there as well. Winds will remain under 10kts outside of convection, so it becomes a matter of quick directional changes with the surface front atop the area and convection outflows making for short-duration changes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI-SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Douglas-Pope- Stearns-Stevens-Todd. Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Kanabec- Mille Lacs-Morrison. WI...None.