textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for thunderstorms Saturday & Sunday morning across western Minnesota.

- More widespread rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday, though areas across northern MN are favored for heaviest amounts.

- More seasonable airmass arrives for the rest of the week after Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...After some morning stratus, skies have started to clear out so have a mix of sun and clouds across the region. Where skies were clear, temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s, but where the clouds lingered, temperatures were in the upper 70s to lower 80s. For the rest of the day, expect dry conditions with light winds.

Later tonight, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across the eastern Dakotas into western MN on the leading edge of some H850 theta_e advection. These should weaken as they approach the forecast area, but additional development is expected in the afternoon and evening along the axis of instability across western MN. These storms could produce gusty winds and hail, and the Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) remains across western Minnesota. These storms should weaken as they move east, so not anticipating them to cross the I-35 corridor.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...On Monday, a potent upper level wave will kick across the High Plains, and bring widespread precipitation across international border closer to the surface low. A trailing cold front south of this low will pass through the region, and this should bring precipitation to most locations from Monday into Tuesday morning. But given the timing, the storms will probably be at their weakest and moving fairly quick, so not anticipating soaking rains. A few of the strongest storms could produce damaging winds or large hail, and SPC maintains the marginal risk.

Rain will exit the region Tuesday morning, and any redevelopment later in the day should be to the east across Wisconsin. On Wednesday, breezy west winds of 25 to 30 mph will develop in the wake of the cold front. Highs will only be in the 70s. Looking ahead, there are small chances for storms later in the week and next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Main change to the TAFs this period was to remove any rain mention with CAMs that have run since 18z trending hard in the dry direction for the MPX area. We do not look to have anywhere near as much fog/stratus as the last 2 mornings on Sunday, but will have to watch out for fog development in favored locations if upper clouds don't come in as thick as currently forecast.

KMSP...No rain anticipated this period, with persistent east winds.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. SHRA/TSRA likely late night. Wind SE 10-15 kts. TUE...SHRA/MVFR likely with chc TSRA in mrng. Clearing late. Wind S 10-15 kts bcmg W. WED...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.