textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold overnight temperatures will lead to frost/freeze concerns tonight.

- Small chance for showers Saturday, otherwise dry weather expected for the near future.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Breezy northwesterly winds and partly cloudy skies are combining to keep it at kind of a meh day. Afternoon highs range from the mid 40s in central MN to the mid 50s in southern MN. Some may say it's the kind of taco Tuesday that's best spent indoors rather than on a patio. Clouds will quickly clear and winds will diminish after sunset, allowing for overnight lows to drop to freezing or below everywhere except the core of the Twin Cities metro. Freeze and Frost headlines have been issued to message this risk, with duration of time below freezing taken into account as well. Any sensitive plants or vegetation could be impacted.

The forecast is pretty close to a rinse and repeat for tomorrow, though winds will generally be about 5 mph less and overnight lows about 5 degrees warmer. As an aside, parts of Colorado and Wyoming are forecast to see several inches of snow associated with this cooler airmass... so it could be worse (or better if you're already missing Winter somehow). Once that system moves east, we'll start to see ridging move in aloft across the western US. As the ridging builds east into the Plains, our temperatures will gradually warm each day through the end of the week. Friday will likely be the nicest day this week with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds and cloud cover will increase on Saturday ahead of a low pressure system. It should still make for a fine day with highs in the 60s or low 70s, though there is a slight chance for rain (about 15-30%) tied to the frontal passage during the day. Our limiting factor will be getting over our dry airmass that's been stagnant across the region. At the same time, the better synoptic forcing will likely be tied to the jet stream just south of Minnesota and Wisconsin. So while this looks to be our best chance for precipitation in the next week, it does not look all too impressive itself.

Long range models remain in good agreement for a pattern change some time next week, shifting us into a more zonal regime. It is difficult to say whether that'll put us in a wetter pattern, though at the very least it should allow us to be in an overall warmer pattern where we can increase dewpoints and build up available moisture day to day.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites throughout this duration. BKN mid-level fair wx cumulus clouds will slowly diminish through this evening but remain generally in place with FEW-SCT coverage through the overnight hours. Coverage will increase a bit after daybreak Wednesday, which may result in more BKN coverage than some sites are currently advertising but nothing below 6kft is expected. Breezy/gusty NW winds will diminish from sunset onward, eventually dropping to around 5 kts, before picking up once again from late Wednesday morning onward.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW to NW at 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Benton- Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice- Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright. WI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Pepin- Pierce-St. Croix.