textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist through early next week, with highs in the 40s/50s through Tuesday before dropping back mid-next week.

- Saturday's warm high temperatures will have MSP, STC, and EAU all approaching 90+ year old records.

- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with the next chance for precipitation not until the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

It's a beautiful day today with only some broken to scattered clouds over WI early this afternoon. Temperatures have already warmed to the mid 40s across western and southern MN early this afternoon and will climb a few more degrees to near 50 within the next couple of hours. Highs will only warm to the upper 30s to lower 40s this afternoon from central MN to western WI where snow cover remains. Lows tonight for this region will cool to near 20 while southern MN will be a bit warmer near 30. Areas of fog/freezing fog are possible tonight over central MN, particularly near AXN where the fog could become quite dense. Will have to keep an eye on how visibilities evolve and the Friday morning commute in this region is impacted. The forecast remains dry into early next week with temperatures continuing to warm to well above normal. A northeast to southwest temperature gradient will remain in place (warmest in southwest MN) into this weekend due to the existing snow cover. Highs will warm by a few degrees each day with mid to upper 50s likely in southwestern MN on Saturday while lower to mid 40s are expected for central MN and western WI. These warm temperatures will undoubtedly melt the existing snow pack, likely by Sunday, which should cause a more north to south gradient in area temperatures for early next week. After a brief stall in the warmth Sunday, we look to reach our warmest Monday into possibly Tuesday. Highs in southern MN look to warm into the upper 50s, with a few isolated spots reaching 60, while western MN to western WI look to reach the lower 50s. Looking at the included Climate section below, we do have a chance a breaking a couple of record high temperatures. Most notably is MSP on Saturday where the record high is 50 (from 1882!). While this mid- February warmth is unusual, it isn't completely unprecedented as record highs become much harder to reach early next week.

Substantial model differences still remain for the middle of next week but the general consensus is a return of precipitation chances for the entire CWA. Long-range ensembles depict a very strong southwesterly upper-level jetstreak rounding the base of a trough over the desert Southwest early next week. This jetstreak will spread into the central CONUS by mid-week, providing potentially several disturbances for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. We'll have to wait to see how the forecast evolves but plan on an active period of weather for middle to late next week, with multiple precipitation chances and types possible. Cooler air also looks to arrive mid-next week as northerly flow shunts the very warm air mass south.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

FEW-SCT mid/high clouds through the period. Some areas of fog are likely overnight and early Friday across central MN. Some areas have already developed in the vicinity of AXN. Otherwise, light winds expected to continue, shifting more westerly Friday afternoon, then southeast again Friday evening.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts becoming S late. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts becoming NE.

CLIMATE

Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Record high temperatures for February 13th through 17th can be found in the table below. Period of records began: MPX (1996), MSP (1872), STC (1894), EAU (1893).

FRI SAT SUN MON TUE 2/13 2/14 2/15 2/16 2/17

MPX 47 (2017) 46 (2002) 45 (1999) 54 (2011) 62 (2017) MSP 51 (1890) 50 (1882) 63 (1921) 60 (1981) 63 (2017) STC 47 (2011) 52 (1921) 55 (1921) 53 (1981) 59 (2017) EAU 47 (1921) 49 (1934) 58 (1921) 58 (1931) 55 (1981)

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.