textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of frost and freeze are expected for most of the area Friday night as temperatures remain below normal.

- Temperatures slightly warm this weekend with two chances of rain for eastern MN and west-central WI Saturday night and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Current radar imagery shows a few showers over southeastern MN early this morning. But, this activity will continue southeast out of our region within the next couple of hours. Cloud cover has managed to keep temperatures for most of the area from falling too much tonight. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s where clouds are present, while western MN and Rusk county, WI (where clearer skies are present) have fallen into the lower 30s. Today will be cool again with highs in the lower to mid 50s. A diurnal cumulus field may bring an isolated shower near EAU or AEL this afternoon but most of the CWA should remain dry. Clouds should do a much better job clearing out Friday night, which will lead to lows falling to the upper 20s to lower 30s for Saturday morning. Expect area-wide frost (aside from maybe the heat island of the Twin Cities metro) with a hard freeze most likely in eastern MN and west-central WI. Another round of frost/freeze headlines is probable but will wait until the current headlines expire before issuing.

Temperatures rebound a bit this weekend as ridging within the northwesterly upper-level flow shifts over the Northern Plains. Forecast highs for Saturday and Sunday are in the 60s while lows are in the 40s. A 20-40% chance of rain exists across eastern MN and western WI Saturday night with a passing 850 hPa wave within the northwesterly flow. Not expecting any significant rainfall with this chance but wet surfaces are a given Sunday morning if rain occurs. Another chance of rain is possible throughout Monday as a clipper- like system sideswipes us to the northeast. 40-50% PoPs are currently forecast for much of the same area as Saturday night. This system will also bring cold air behind it and cool us down for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs these days should be on the order of what we'll see today. Looking farther ahead, the forecast isn't favored to change much as the closed upper-level low over the Hudson Bay persists. This will keep us in northwesterly flow and favored for below average temperatures. Slight chances for rain will exist for the remainder of next week with any passing waves within the periphery of the low. Though, significant rainfall is not expected given the lack of connection with any appreciable moisture.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Very few changes made from previous TAF issuance. VFR conditions expected the entire period. Broken to overcast clouds over eastern MN and western WI should move southeast and dissipate this morning. But, a diurnal cumulus field near 7000-8000 feet should develop by this afternoon. Clouds lift and begin to clear tonight. North-northwesterly winds increase to 5-10 knots this afternoon but drop under 5 knots with variable direction this evening. Direction does become more south-southwesterly towards Saturday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Chippewa- Dakota-Goodhue-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod- Meeker-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Washington-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chisago. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Pepin-Pierce. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.