textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few sub-severe storms possible tomorrow afternoon and evening.

- Rain showers likely Wednesday, ending early Thursday.

- Seasonal temperatures in the 70s throughout the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The push of dry air from the northwest has resulted in a marked decrease in satellite coverage of cumulus with an eastward push in the clouds evident via visible imagery this afternoon. Further cumulus will only last for a few more hours before diminishing completely overnight, and as we lose our mixing we should also lose our gusty winds that have been present throughout the day. Winds will turn westerly overnight but remain fairly light, increasing to 5-10mph tomorrow as they once again favor the northwest. Cooler temperatures will be present tonight thanks to the clear skies and light winds, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area.

An incoming shortwave will bring chances for scattered showers and storms tomorrow late afternoon to evening, with forecast soundings showing mostly elevated instability above the 7000ft level. There is also a lack of surface based moisture which would need to be overcome before appreciable precipitation would reach the ground, evident by near inverted v sounding profiles. As such, the QPF is on the lighter side especially compared to Wednesday, however there will be at least some shower and storm activity to content with especially north of the Twin Cities in central Minnesota. The forcing ends rather quickly as the shortwave pushes through by early Tuesday, with any lingering showers also disappearing by that time. Some of the coarser resolution global models do keep lingering showers in western WI for much of the day on Tuesday as a surface low spins up as the shortwave occludes over the Great Lakes, with the main question still being the amount of moisture available to replenish showers.

Wednesday still appears to be the best day for more widespread precipitation as a stronger shortwave will spin up a surface low over the Dakotas as it arrives during the early morning, gradually spreading eastwards throughout the day. Showers should be broad in scope with most of the area picking up at least a quarter inch of rainfall, with the general high end being upwards of half an inch. The best chance for exceed this amount would be with thunderstorms, which look to favor southern Minnesota for any appreciable chances as some instability builds in towards the evening hours. There is some subtle curvature to the hodographs in forecast soundings from the GFS/NAM along I-90 as the instability arrives, however it quickly becomes a flatter wind profile as the surface low moves in by the evening with an anticyclonic profile after 00z. As such, there may be a sneaky severe weather chance that lasts for an hour or two, but should be limited to the far southern reaches of the state and impact wise would be on the lower end of the scale. For now, expect mainly showers for most of the area as we wait to see some CAM guidance come into play to resolve the finer details.

Beyond Wednesday, another frontal boundary/shortwave looks to surge south Friday into Saturday that could produce some isolated showers, but this continues to look very disorganized within the guidance with no solid consensus. As such, while there may be showers, there isn't much else to discuss at the 5-7 day time range for now. Temperature wise, we are looking to remain in the 70s for highs and 50s for lows throughout the period, with a favoring for further below normal temperatures in the 8-14 day CPC outlooks towards the end of the month.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 721 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions into tomorrow afternoon with increasing high clouds through Monday. Scattered showers & a few thunderstorms are expected to spread across western Minnesota late afternoon or early evening tomorrow, & eventually across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin through the evening. Introduced a PROB30 for -SHRA at this range but a couple thunderstorms are likely as well. Light NW winds become more SW to WSW overnight with gusts of 20-25 kts developing by early afternoon tomorrow.

KMSP...Showers & thunderstorms tomorrow evening will be widely scattered, but at least brief MVFR to IFR impacts from a shower or two look likely. A few rumbles of thunder are possible. The main timing window looks to be between 7-10 PM, but we could see precipitation in the area as early as 5-6 PM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.