textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow & scattered flurries this morning. A dusting of accumulation likely across western Minnesota.

- Quiet weather through the rest of the period with below-normal temperatures through the weekend warming next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Stratus is expected to stick around through the day with flurries & light snow expected at times through the morning, chances for up to half an inch of accumulation are highest across western Minnesota. Persistent northwest flow & cold advection continues on the back side of yesteray's low pressure system, keeping temperatures chilly across western Minnesota with highs only in the teens to low 20s expected. Warmer temperatures near 30 degrees are expected across western Wisconsin where the cold advection will be weaker. Northwest winds will gust to 20-30 mph through the morning, with speeds gradually diminishing through the afternoon & into this evening.

This weekend looks quiet and seasonably cold as cool Canadian high pressure moves over the region. Saturday's temperatures will be similar to today but below-nrmal temperatures are expected Sunday & Monday as the high centers over the region. Highs range from the teens across western Minnesota to low to mid 20s farther east, with overnight lows in the single digits to near zero. A little light snow is possible late Saturday into Sunday across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, but the model consensus suggests the shortwave responsible for the snow will likely take a track that keeps the bulk of the forcing farther east across Wisconsin & the Great Lakes.

Temperatures rebound through midweek as warmer return flow develops on the back side of the departing high pressure. The chances for any notable storm systems or appreciable precipitation still look low, but the northern stream of the jet remains active enough that one or two weak disturbances could impact the region. Snow would be the most likely precipitation type with any of these disturbances, but mixed precipitation or just rain could be possible if the timing of the precipitation matches up with warmer temperatures during the day. A return to above- normal temperatures looks possible by the end of the week, although longer range guidance hints at another shot of cold canadian high pressure next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1042 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A layer of MVFR/IFR stratus continues to blanket the region to open the 18z period. We have remained pessimistic in the cloud forecast, though some peeks of sunshine could filter through as the stratus attempts to scatter out at points this afternoon. We anticipate the MVFR cigs gradually improve to VFR by sunrise tomorrow morning, however if the stratus remains BKN or OVC, those MVFR conditions could persist into the afternoon. This is a low-medium confidence forecast given that we expect at least some low clouds to stick around, though it is difficult to pinpoint where areas will be SCT versus BKN/OVC.

Portions of west-central Minnesota could continue to see visibility reductions from -SN for a few hours to start the period. Winds remain gusty out of the NW through sunset.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 15-20kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW becoming SW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW. 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.