textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rest of today, cool and breezy with scattered snow showers. Only a dusting of accumulation expected.

- Sunday through Tuesday, temperatures warm each day, with highs in the 40s by Tuesday.

- Precipitation, small chances for mainly light rain (maybe some snow) Tuesday/night. Another chance for mainly snow (maybe some rain) Thursday into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 945 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Several surface observations are still reporting flurries across much of western MN this evening. This is likely due the stratus layer's location within the DGZ and continued lift from the upper low across central WI. Have collaborated with neighboring offices to extend the mention of flurries in the grids overnight. These chances will wane as the upper low departs towards the Ohio Valley. Otherwise, the forecast generally remains on track, with clouds set to clear from northwest to southeast through Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Today and tonight...Early afternoon satellite imagery showed a compact upper level low spinning across the northern Minnesota/Wisconsin border, and radar showed several areas of snow showers across the region. Surface obs indicated some reduced visibility at times, mostly under the heavier snow showers, but there was a blowing snow component as well with northwest wind gusts around 30 mph at times. The snow showers and breezy winds will continue through the evening, but should start taper off overnight as the upper level wave drifts east and we loose our forcing for ascent.

On the back side of this wave, high rises and subsidence will lead to clearing skies and light winds, which will set the stage for a cold, but not overly cold, night across the region, with lows int he single digits to lower teens.

Sunday through Tuesday...This cooldown will be short-lived as southwest winds develop on Sunday and bring warmer air across the region. This warm up will continue into Monday and Tuesday, with highs near 40 along and north of I-94, but mid to upper 40s across southwest Minnesota. A few locations might touch 50, depending on cloud cover.

In addition to the warmer temperatures, a weak clipper system will move down across southern Canada toward the Upper Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. This will put the bulk of the precipitation north of the forecast area. On Monday night, another slightly stronger system will take a similar track, but could spread some rain or snow across the region, especially along and north of I-94. There is a non-zero chance that surface temperatures could remain below freezing, leading to some light freezing rain, but for now have only a rain/snow mention in the weather grids since the timing and track location of this second system is still a bit uncertain. A cold front will move through late Tuesday, which will bring colder weather for the rest of the week.

Wednesday through Saturday...The aforementioned cold front will pass through early Wednesday morning, with breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures in store for Wednesday. Highs will be in the 20s, which is near the seasonal average for mid-January. Looking ahead, another system will drop down from the north Thursday into Friday. This one looks to be the strongest of the three, but it is also the farthest out so a lot can change. As it appears now, we should be on the colder side of this system, so expect mainly snow, but could have some mixed precipitation at times. It's too early to speculate on exact amounts, but this does not look like it will produce anything more than maybe a few inches, with higher totals across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Satellite reveals a well defined upper-low spinning over central WI. Gusty northwest winds, scattered snow showers, and MVFR ceilings west of the circulations center are the main aviation concerns early in the TAF period. The upper-low will continue to depart east towards the Great Lakes tonight, which will allow for snow showers and winds to diminish. MVFR (possibly lower) ceilings will persist through the night and into Sunday morning. Latest RAP/HRRR guidance is a bit more pessimistic with improvements, but would anticipate a VFR scenario with light westerly winds at all terminals by mid to late morning.

KMSP...Scattered snow showers remain possible early in the TAF period. Northwest winds remain breezy into tonight, before gradually diminishing. MVFR cigs will persist through at least 12z, but latest guidance is trending a bit slower with improvements so opted to delay a return to VFR until 15z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts. TUE...MVFR/RA. Wind NW 10-20 kts. WED...MVFR/RASN early. VFR late. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.