textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold overnight temperatures will lead to frost/freeze concerns throughout the week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be present throughout the week, mainly due to low dew points/relative humidity. Winds will generally be the limiting factor.

- Small chance for showers Thursday, otherwise dry weather expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Breezy winds are the primary driver behind the local forecast today thanks to efficient mixing and an inverted V lower level profile promoting winds mixing down from aloft. Gusts heading into the early afternoon are ranging from low to mid 20s in western Wisconsin to 30mph in western Minnesota. Dew points generally range in the 30s with relative humidity in the 40s this afternoon as temperatures reach the mid to upper 60s in southern Minnesota tapering to the upper 50s in central Minnesota. The breezy winds coupled with RH int the 40s is leading to elevated but not Red Flag fire weather conditions this afternoon, however fires may still spread quickly due to the strength of the winds. The concern overnight transitions to frost/freeze as skies are expected to clear out later today, allowing for temperatures to fall below freezing in portions of central Minnesota and remain in the mid 30s across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Frost/freeze headlines are possible, however it would be a good idea to bring any sensitive plants inside regardless as the crux of the forecast will end up being whether we have few/scattered cloud cover or clearer, which still has some lingering uncertainty. Winds are expected to weaken once we lose daylight, with weaker gusts returning tomorrow.

The forecast for the remainder of the week largely remains the same with the primary concern rotating between partially elevated fire weather conditions during the day due to low relative humidity and marginally breezy winds, becoming frost/freeze overnight as winds weaken and temperatures fall into the 30s. Dew points will remain in the 20s and 30s throughout the week with a lack of any significant moisture advection into the region, as our large scale pattern remains a broad upper level trough bringing northwesterly flow suppressing the southern stream jet and any Gulf moisture to the south. Any of the 7 day QPF maps from various model guidance will paint a similar picture, with all of the rainfall focused over the SE US and next to nothing for the northern plains/Great Lakes. The longer range pattern shows hints that the upper level pattern will finally break down in a couple weeks, which would open the door for a more active pattern. Temperatures will be coolest this week, especially overnight, with a general trend towards near normal temperatures as the upper level pattern shifts towards the middle of the month.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Breezy winds for the first 6-10 hours of the period are the greatest concern with a primary direction of 300-330 throughout, with speeds starting at 15-20G30kts falling below 10kts after 02-05z. Winds will increase slightly after sunrise tomorrow, with a few gusts to around 20kts with a similar direction by the end of the period. VFR cigs/visibility are expected, with 100-150 level cigs towards 00z before we clear out back to few/sct250 after sunset, followed by a return to SCT060-080 level by the end of the period.

KMSP...Gusty winds at 310-330 are the primary concern, with VFR throughout. Mid level clouds are possible after 18z tomorrow, generally within the 050-070 level with even a brief period of MVFR not anticipated at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.