textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.

- Temperatures warm well above normal next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

A surface ridge axis was overhead last evening and is now shifting to the south allowing southerly winds to develop. Temperatures early this morning have dropped into the upper 20s to mid 30s, but are holding steady now and some are beginning to rise across western MN. The growing season has ended for much of the region. The southerly winds will increase markedly after sunrise and forecast soundings indicate some gusts of 25 to 30 mph are likely by late morning and afternoon. Temps will rebound quickly with the increased wind later this morning and highs will reach the upper 50s to mid 60s this afternoon. The wind combined with RH in the mid 20s to mid 30s will lead to elevated fire weather conditions, especially in western MN where the strongest winds and lowest RH will reside. A near repeat is expected for Sunday, although temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 60s ahead of a cold front reaching central MN in the afternoon. The front will also bring lighter winds along it, so the breezy conditions will be confined to southern MN and western WI.

After slightly cooler temperatures Monday, a warming trend is expected to prevail through the rest of the week. The pattern will feature a ridge across much of the CONUS with troughs on the east and west coasts. Very quiet and warm weather will result and temperatures well into the 70s are expected from midweek onward, which would be 15 to 20 degrees above normal. A weak short wave passing through Wednesday will be dry with the only chances for rain coming next weekend as the western long wave trough finally begins to approach.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Clear skies through the period. Light winds early this morning will become south and increase to 15-20 kts, gusting to 25-30 kts by late morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville- Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.