textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Clouds have kept temperatures cold today, but much warmer air is expected Sunday with highs in the 60s.

- A series of wintry systems bring chances of rain and snow Tuesday into Wednesday, Thursday into Friday, and again next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Stratus has finally shown signs of accelerating its dissipation early this afternoon from the northwest. Despite that, temperatures largely remain in the 20s and 30s with Madison and Canby the lone exceptions in the low to mid 40s. Still a few hours of prime heating to go and most areas should reach the upper 30s closer to sunset and will remain there tonight as strong warm air advection takes place. Another shortwave will pass well to the north overnight. A few rain or snow showers are possible across central MN late but won't measure up to much, or anything. The real warm air arrives Sunday. 925 mb temps skyrocket from around -6C this morning to +14C by late Sunday afternoon. Mid level clouds are expected to remain in place Sunday which will temper heating from the max potential in the upper 60s to near 70. However, highs are still very likely to reach the low to mid 60s, making for the warmest day of the season thus far.

A cold front will pass through late Sunday night and stall along the I-80 corridor through Tuesday. This system will come in two parts. The first round of potential precip will be Monday night. A band of 700 mb frontogenesis will be stretched out across central MN and northern WI. If the column can saturate, a band of light snow could drop an inch or two of accumulation into early Tuesday morning. Most guidance weaken this band Tuesday before it flares up again later Tuesday and Tuesday night. The second round will come with the low to the south. A trough digging into the northern Plains will interact with the weak low in the Midwest and may facilitate the development of cold conveyor belt precip across the Upper Midwest. More snow accumulation is possible area wide but ensemble spread is rather large with specific amounts. It is in the realm of possibility it could be a shovelable event, but will depend how well phasing occurs.

From midweek and through next weekend, a strong baroclinic zone will remain in place from the northern Rockies to the central Plains and Midwest. Two more waves will develop along it Thursday into Friday and then Saturday into Sunday. The late week system for now appears to track across northern MN, keeping a lot of the precip north of our area, but still giving us a shot at some rain and snow. The next weekend system could be more significant as a more potent wave digs into the northern Plains. A lot to monitor for the next several days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

IFR/low MVFR continues for the first few hours of the TAF, with precipitation over for all sites. Gradual clearing/erosion of CIGS is expected, with most sites becoming VFR between 20-22z. Clouds are expected to reform in the mid levels, becoming mid level VFR CIGS around 10kft after 00z, with a few sites mainly AXN/STC having a small chance of -SHRA from 02-06z. CIGS remain VFR, becoming borderline BKN/SCT by 12z and remaining as such for the rest of the period. A prolonged 6-10 hours of LLWS are possible for all sites from roughly 02-10z.

KMSP...Omitted any -SHRA mention, however there is a non zero chance for a shower from 02-06z. Right now it is under 20 percent likelihood with mid level CIGS expected to be the most likely outcome.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. TUE...MVFR, chc -SN/-RA/IFR. Wind NE 10kts. WED...MVFR/-SN early, then VFR. Wind N 10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.