textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers & thunderstorms likely Tuesday. The strongest storms during the afternoon could contain hail & gusty winds.

- Seasonably cool weather continues this week. Warmer by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A fairly quiet summer pattern is in place across central & southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning. The one exception is across far southern Minnesota, where a decaying MCV across eastern Dakota will likely result in some light rain showers across southwest & far-southern Minnesota. Most locations should stay dry with periods of high clouds and highs generally in the 70s.

The main weather system of the week arrives Tuesday. A cold front moving through the Upper Midwest will bring increasing cloud cover, followed by widespread showers and a few thunderstorms from west to east during the afternoon and evening. The exact timing of the system & surface cold front will determine how much instability can build during the day, & whether we have a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon. Current trends seem to bring in precipitation & cloud cover through the morning, which would result in a weaker atmosphere for severe weather, although a strong storm or two during the late afternoon & evening could be capable of producing hail & gusty winds. Mainly this looks to be another day with widespread showers & a few thunderstorms, as most of the area sees rainfall amounts around 0.25-0.5".

Rain chances continue into Wednesday as the system slowly moves east and southeast of the region. Wrap-around showers may linger, especially north of Interstate 94 and across western Wisconsin. A few rumbles of thunder are still possible, but the overall trend should be toward scattered, lighter showers compared to Tuesday. Highs Wednesday will remain on the cool side, generally in the lower to mid 70s.

For Thursday and Friday, cooler air aloft remains over the Upper Midwest. This type of pattern can sometimes generate a few spotty afternoon showers, especially where daytime heating is strongest, but most locations should be dry for much of the time. Temperatures will stay comfortable for late June, with highs in the 70s and overnight lows mostly in the 50s.

Attention then turns to next weekend, when the pattern begins to change. A larger storm system is expected to develop well to our west, which should allow warmer and more humid air to gradually return northward into Minnesota and Wisconsin. There is still plenty of uncertainty on the timing and placement of individual rounds of thunderstorms, so next weekend does not look like a washout at this point. However, the signal is there for a more active pattern to return sometime from late Friday night through Sunday, with additional shower and thunderstorm chances likely continuing into the following week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A mix of mid level VFR cumulus and upper level FEW/SCT clouds are present at start of period, with the cu dissipating as we lose daylight while the upper level clouds thin out but remain FEW/SCT overnight. By 17-18z, further FEW/SCT050 are possible across the area with VFR expected throughout. Winds will be relatively weak, at or below 5kts, favoring 070-090 but occasionally varying in direction due to how weak they are.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...-SHRA/MVFR likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SE to SW 5-10kts. WED...VFR, chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.