textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions expected for today through Friday night, with scattered showers returning on Saturday followed by more persistent and widespread rain Monday through Tuesday.

- Although cooler than Wednesday, temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The cold front and its associated upper level trough responsible for the showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday is now well east of the WFO MPX coverage area, with appreciable cold and dry air advection on going behind it for the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will bottom out in the lower 30s to lower 40s this morning followed by highs only topping out in the upper 40s to upper 50s. While this is still above normal for late October, this is obviously cooler than the temperatures experienced yesterday despite plentiful sunshine for today. Similar temperatures are expected on Friday with the same high pressure airmass shifting east across the area through late day Friday. The western extent of the departing cold front, located over the Central Plains, will push northward a bit Friday night through Saturday, bringing rain on Saturday for mainly southern MN but potentially as far north as an Alexandria-Mora line. No thunderstorms are expected, just scattered to numerous rain showers.

A better chance for rain still looks to come Monday into Tuesday as a system develops over the lee of the Rockies into CO/KS. However, with models still projecting a generally straight easterly track, this will keep the center of the system south of MN/WI but still thrust a large precipitation shield to its north across our coverage area for Monday through Tuesday, resulting in a persistent soaking rainfall out of high moisture content and strong isentropic lift. In addition, guidance continues to tamp down temperatures from getting too far over normal. Highs Sunday-Monday will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s as this system moves across the region. Behind it, highs will return to the 50s for the middle of next week along with less active weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration for all MN TAF sites. At the two WI TAF sites, decks between 800-1600ft are still lingering behind the departing cold front. Thus, will start out both sites with the cloud cover in place but with the expectation that RNH will start out as VFR while EAU will have MVFR ceilings for a few hours before joining the remaining TAF sites as VFR. Skies will then clear out overnight and remain as such through early Friday morning, although high clouds will start to filter into western MN by then. Winds will come from the W to NW 5-10kts through much of Thursday then go light/variable Thursday night through Friday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. MON...MVFR/-RA likely, mainly P.M. Wind SE 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.