textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread temperatures near or below freezing early tomorrow morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect.

- Temperatures slightly warm this weekend with two chances of rain for eastern MN and west-central WI Saturday night and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Despite temperatures being about 5-10 degrees below normal, it's a pretty nice day out there! Light winds and partly cloudy skies will continue for the rest of the day. By nighttime, guidance is in solid agreement that clouds will quickly clear under the eastward-expanding ridge. Clearing skies and light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling, giving us higher confidence for impacts from near or sub-freezing temperatures. Our forecast for overnight lows leaned on the 25th percentile of the NBM as well as the 12z Canadian model. A widespread Freeze Warning is in effect for areas with greater risk to sensitive vegetation. For any counties north of the Warning, you can assume similar impacts for any early season growth that could be susceptible. The heat island of the Twin Cities may be enough to limit frost formation, especially in the core of the metro.

This will be our last night of near-freezing lows until Tuesday morning, thanks to the aforementioned ridge. Winds will shift out of the W/SW tomorrow, funneling in slightly warmer temps. This should make for a nice weekend with partly cloudy skies and highs in the 60s. The only real nuisance will be the chance for a line of showers and gusty northwest winds Saturday night into Sunday morning as a quick-moving shortwave gets ingested into the cyclonic flow around the upper low to our east. A much more pronounced h500 low will develop over the northern Great Lakes again to start next week, returning us to the same weather pattern that we were in all of this week. Highs will drop into the low to mid 50s with potential for frost/freeze concerns for at least a couple days again. There is no major signal for widespread rain in the next week, as highlighted by the WPC's 7-day QPF.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A quiet TAF period on tap with VFR conditions expected the entire period. Broken diurnal cumulus field near 6000-7000 feet will develop around the start of the TAF this afternoon. Clouds lift and begin to clear tonight. North-northeasterly winds 7 to 10 knots this afternoon becoming light and variable direction this evening through early Saturday morning. Direction does become more southwesterly on Saturday morning with speeds around 10 knots.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G30kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault- Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle- Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca- Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.