textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures continue through the forecast period, with today likely the hottest with low 90s possible.

- Chances for thunderstorms through Wednesday, then a prolonged dry pattern sets up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have developed from eastern Yellow Medicine County southeastward into north central IA early this morning on the leading edge of richer pwats. These storms will continue working northeast during the next several hours toward the MN River Valley before likely dissipating mid morning. Some of the storms may contain hail. A boundary shifted north around midnight and temperatures jumped 5 to 10 degrees quickly behind it with MSP still sitting at 77 degrees as of 145 AM. It will be another very warm day today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lower 90s may be more widespread if residual cloud cover from morning convection is minimized and redevelopment of convection holds off until late in the day. MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg is expected to develop as the day progresses thanks to steep mid level lapse rates and pwats increasing to 1.5 inches. Shear will be quite weak so convection will not be particularly organized. However, some large hail is possible with the stronger updrafts given the steep mid lapse rates and moderate to strong CAPE. Gusty winds are also possible given the relatively dry layer below 10 kft. Initial development may occur by mid afternoon. Several outflow boundaries from initial activity may act as a focus for additional development. Coverage will peak in the early to mid evening before nocturnal stabilization begins to decay convection thereafter. A backdoor cold front will make southwestward progress Wednesday to the Mississippi River late Wednesday afternoon. Additional development may occur along it and ahead of it during peak heating, but coverage will be more isolated than today.

High pressure will build south into the Great Lakes late week through early next week. Surface winds will shift easterly and much drier air will work in, ending the shower and thunderstorm chances for a while. Temperatures will remain warm in the low to mid 80s each day, ending May on a much warmer note.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have become fairly widespread from RWF eastward to between MSP and MKT. The recent development into the southwest Twin Cities metro indicates this activity is not ready to dissipate yet despite recent guidance trends. Still expect most of this activity to be dissipating by 14Z, but not before making a run toward MSP. Additional TS may form this afternoon and evening, but confidence remains too low to include any TAF at this time.

KMSP...TS is building northeast and is now about 25 miles to the southwest. The probability remains low TS will reach the terminal, but given how activity has developed north in the last hour a PROB30 was necessary. Best chance will be between 13-1430Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Slight chc aftn -TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.