textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Slow moving thunderstorms may pose a risk for flooding across southwestern Minnesota through this evening.

- Southeasterly winds are expected to become gusty tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. This will also bring our next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures are on the horizon with rain chances returning late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue across southwestern Minnesota early this afternoon as a shortwave comes across the top of the central CONUS ridge. Areas along and south of the Minnesota River from roughly Granite Falls to Mankato have received 1-2" of rain thanks to nearly stationary storms that continue to bubble up without really going anywhere. The bulk of the heaviest rain has remained just outside of the CWA into far southwestern Minnesota and northern Iowa. A Flood Watch has been issued for our two southwestern-most counties in collaboration with the Sioux Falls and Des Moines offices. Elsewhere over the past hour or so, there's been an uptick in shower and thunderstorms further north towards I-94. These also seem pretty pulse-y much like the ones to the south and are expected to diminish by this evening. Storms are not expected to make it much further east than they are currently with ample dry air in the low/mid levels. This is apparent when looking at the difference in PWATS from eastern Minnesota (1.3"ish) to western Minnesota (1.7 to 1.9"ish). CAMs have struggled with the evolution of the ongoing storms most of the day due to the chaotic storm motion (or lack of), but the general consensus is that precip remains to the west of a line from roughly St. Cloud to Mankato.

Following today's showers and storms, a deepening low across the Dakotas will move into southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan late Monday. In response, southeast winds are expected to become breezy tomorrow with gusts around 30 MPH ahead of a cold front. This front is expected to sweep across Minnesota Monday evening into Tuesday, bringing our next chance for showers and storms. Northern Minnesota will likely see the bulk of the (much needed) QPF, but central Minnesota down through the Twin Cities into southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin may still end up with around an inch of rain by the time the system moves out Tuesday. Wednesday looks to be the coolest day of the period with highs in the low to mid 70s under strong CAA. This will likely make for another breezy day with northwest winds gusting to around 30 MPH. The remainder of the work week looks mainly dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Looking ahead to next weekend, a pattern shift is likely on the way with the arrival of a series of troughs. This will lead to an uptick in rain chances and more seasonable temperatures for mid September. Beyond next weekend, there seems to be agreement among ensembles that highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s will become more and more common as the fall equinox approaches.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thunderstorms across southwestern Minnesota have good a good job of staying just outside the 10 mile range rings for KRWF and KMKT early this afternoon. KRWF has the best chance of seeing a storm, so have added a TEMPO for the next few hours. Decided to stick with PROB30 for KMKT since hi-res models really struggle to get convection that far east. Elsewhere, low cigs have been prevailing with IFR slowly getting back to MVFR territory. Current thinking is that VFR conditions will return and prevail from this evening through the end of the period. Winds look to remain southeasterly and will increase by tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching front.

KMSP...MVFR cigs remain possible for the next hour or so. All hi-res models have precip falling apart before it can make it to KMKT, so the forecast remains dry. Southeast winds increase tomorrow with gusts of 20-25kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...SHRA/MVFR likely with chc TSRA early. Clearing late. Wind S 10-15kts bcmg W. WED...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25kts. THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for Martin-Watonwan. WI...None.