textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost likely this morning and frost and some areas of freeze likely tomorrow morning.

- Next chance for rain is late Monday into Tuesday with another more active period possible late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Cold air advection has allowed temperatures in much of the Frost Advisory to fall into the temperature range where frost can form. The main obstacle to frost formation will be the low dew points, generally in the 20s across the region. Despite some clouds this morning skies will clear today as high pressure moves in from Canada. Along with this high pressure will be cold air continuing to advect in. Thankfully the May sun is powerful enough to still warm us into the mid 50s to mid 60s today. Tonight though, once the sun sets clear skies will allow for ample radiative cooling. This will bring temperatures down into the lower to mid 30s. Once current advisory expires, we will look into what kind of frost and freeze headlines will be needed for Monday morning. This current round of cold air advection comes to an end on Monday and it looks to stay warm enough for prevent frost formation for the rest of the week. On Monday all the area will be past the median date for the last spring frost. This combined with current long range models and the CPC above normal temperature outlooks suggest a high chance that this will be the final freeze and for much of the area the final frost (west central MN might still have one cooler morning that could get close).

A shortwave trough will track from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. With the support of a jet streak there will be ample synoptic lift with this system. The positioning of this lift though will keep the favored area for rain generally along and to the east of I-35. This low actually reminds me of a winter Alberta Clipper track. This clipper like track keeps the main area of rain more across eastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin. There still appears to be some instability, but not much. So while thunderstorm chances remain they are low.

More of a ridging pattern with the jet stream farther north than it has been during our more recent cooler temperatures will favor near to above normal temperatures for the rest of the week. Deterministic models show the potential for a few shortwave troughs to move through this pattern. Turning to ensemble guidance, there is a large amount of spread from Thursday into the following week for how this pattern evolves. Bottom line, it looks more active but exactly when rain would occur is uncertain. As we get closer the spread should start to converge and give us a much better idea on which days are most likely to see rain chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Light winds and clear sky to high cloud VFR overnight. More VFR during the day on Sunday with diurnal winds picking up with some gusts up around 20 knots from the northwest. Winds will calm back down to light tomorrow night with VFR, likely clear skies.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison- Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.