textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather continue through at least Friday.

- Rain chances and normal temperatures return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Uffda, what a beautiful afternoon! Temperatures ranging mostly in the 60s although a few lower 70s are being reported for sites southwest of the MN River Valley. A 1035mb surface high pressure over the northeastern Great Lakes region has allowed for continued subsidence this afternoon. Skies will continue to be essentially cloud-free with forecast highs topping out in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Winds will continue to be out of the south this afternoon with few gusts nearing 20 to 25 mph along mainly for western MN. This area of high pressure is expected to depart to the east this evening, while a troughing pattern moves in across the Canadian Prairies tonight. As of now, the troughing axis is well displaced to our north to serve as any concern for precip chances. As we head into Wednesday, subsidence will remain in place however not as prevalent as today's environment. Therefore, portions of central MN could see some cloud development as a result. Areas south can expect mostly sunny conditions. Once again had to nudge MaxTs up using NBM90th percentile allowing for highs to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday's highs will be even warmer and run practically 15 to 20 degrees above season climatology. Most areas can expect widespread 70s and a few isolated sites nearing 80 degrees near the Buffalo Ridge.

A pattern shift arrives later this week as low pressure moves further inland from the western CONUS. This feature is then carried northward by the strong ridging across the south-central US. The low becomes fully developed by the time its carried over the Canadian border and converges with a deepening trough over British Columbia. Once again, it looks like we will be too far displaced from the strongest forcing by the time it nears the northern plains. The region is then left with a trailing cold front that moves through Friday into early this weekend. Felt the NBM represents PoPs well with portions of west-central MN seeing 40 PoPs Friday afternoon then shifting eastward across the remaining forecast area Saturday. Although PoPs are increased, QPF is on the lower end with about a tenth or two of an inch possible. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler late this weekend into next week with highs only getting into the 50s and lows in the lower 40s to upper 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Another quiet period is ahead of us with VFR expected to all sites throughout, with the exception of some patchy fog after 08z through around 13-14z which seems most likely at STC and northwards at this time. Winds will maintain a 160-180 direction up to 10kts through 00z, then drop back to 5kts or lower as direction becomes variable as high pressure moves directly overhead after 12z. A few mid level clouds are possible tonight, otherwise limited cloud cover with SKC to FEW250.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G30kts. SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.