textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather through the next few days, next chance for rain showers arrives Monday.

- Colder temperatures by and after Thanksgiving.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Temperatures have plunged below freezing as clear skies and efficient radiation cooling have pushed us down into the 20s across most of the area, the exception being the urban heat island in the Twin Cities and portions of southwestern MN where a tiny bit of cloud cover had kept things just a tad warmer. Cloud cover will generally remain sparse throughout the day with light winds as a weak surface low passes south of the region through the south- central CONUS. The abundant sunshine will make the high temperatures in the mid 40s feel a bit warmer despite us being only a month away from the winter solstice as our daylight hours continue to decrease. Low temperatures overnight will once again generally reach near or below freezing as the relatively clear skies continue, with this pattern repeating itself through into Saturday and Sunday before we finally see a return to some more active weather on Monday.

The setup for Monday right now looks to be an occluded upper level low moving over the central Rockies before weakening into a more diffuse trough with some embedded shortwave energy, with guidance consistent in pushing some rain showers into southern Minnesota by midday. The tilt of the trough as the occlusion weakens is the main thing that is differing between different guidance, as the GFS keeps a neutral tilt which pushes showers northwards a bit faster than the ECMWF/CFS with a slight positive tilt and a slightly slower timing. QPF generally looks to be a quarter to half inch through early Tuesday with additional showers possible but a bit more uncertain. The slight difference in tilts also results in a much different forecast after Monday, as the GFS looks to bring in another much stronger upper level occlusion on Tuesday with the other deterministic guidance producing a longwave trough but with much weaker forcing. One constant is the introduction of some much colder air aloft as 850mb temperature anomalies on the order of -5 to -10C are possible, which would translate to eventual surface temperatures down into the teens and 20s across the area. The cold temperatures then lock in as we transition towards the later part of the week and the Thanksgiving holiday as surface high pressure keeps the cold air locked in place. This surface high pressure should prevent us from seeing significant snow potential later in the week despite temperatures cold enough to support it, so we will have to wait a bit longer for our first widespread snowfall of the season. Ensemble guidance is showing relatively high probabilities of 850mb temperature anomalies of -10C with all of the major ensembles showing greater than 50 percent probabilities by early Thursday. With just a little bit of cloud cover we may not mix down the coldest temperatures to the surface, so the probabilities of surface temperatures falling beyond -5 are much lower than the temperatures aloft. Colder temperatures look to lock in as we head into early December, with both the GEFS/EPS showing temperatures struggling to get into the 20s for highs for the first week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 504 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Quiet with no significant weather through the TAF period. Winds remain light and variable, favoring 210-240 at or below 6kts throughout the day, with SKC eventually becoming SCT100/SCT250 after 03z.

KMSP...Forecast soundings show about 70% confidence in some mid level SCT100 from 03-12z. We may see brief CIGS develop, however VFR will remain throughout.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S to W 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W to SE 5kts. MON...VFR to MVFR, PM -SHRA. Wind SE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.