textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry & very mild today through Monday, with highs in the 40s/50s (near-record warmth possible, especially south).

- Widespread precip arrives late Tuesday into Thursday. For our area, that generally means rain south, with better chances for a wintry mix/snow across central MN.

- Turning colder late week with additional light chances for accumulating snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Quiet but anomalously warm weather continues today with widespread highs in the 50s across the area. Well have to keep an eye on visibility trends again overnight given the shallow low- level moisture, as patchy fog/freezing fog looks possible again tomorrow morning, especially in low-lying areas. Not much change in the current pattern is expected Monday into at least mid-day Tuesday with well-aboven normal temperatures continuing. The main story is the strong system expected late Tuesday into Thursday. Model trends continue to favor a more northern track, which keeps the heaviest precipitation (including a band of heavy, wet snow) mainly in northern & north-central Minnesota, while our local area deals more with rain & a sharp north- to- south temperature gradient. The first wave of precipitation from this system likely moves into the area from south Tuesday evening, along an occluded front extending east from the surface low over the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota. Temperatures will still be very warm in the 50s ahead of this front, & models indicate a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE are likely, so a few rumbles of thunder certainly seem possible with the rain showers that develop along the front Tuesday evening.

Behind this front, a dry slot is likely to work into at least southern portions of Minnesota & Wisconsin, if not our entire area, resulting in mostly dry conditions Wednesday. More widespread precipitation is still expected to be ongoing closer to the track of the surface low across northern & north-central Minnesota, with temperatures likely cooling enough for predominately snow to fall where this precipitation occurs. the question still remaining is just how far south this precipitation falls on Wednesday, with the majority of AI & deterministic/ensemble solutions suggesting the greatest chances for the snow Wednesday sets up just north of our CWA across north-central Minnesota & northern Wisconsin. Still, some snow likely looks possible across our far-southern CWA which could get clipped by the southern edge of this band, mainly north of an Alexandria to Pine City line where accumulations of 1-3" looks possible. Can't totally rule out some lighter snow south of this region, potentially as far south as the twin Cities metro & I-94 corridor, but we'd likely only be looking a t a dusting to a few tenths Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Colder air works into the area later in the week (Thu-Sat) with highs falling back into the 30s then 20s, along with additional chances for light snow. Guidance is coming into agreement with a system coming out of the central plains on the track of the aforementioned mid-week system, & generating a swath of precipitation over at least the southern third of Minnesota & central/southern Minnesota Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures do look likely for snow to fall with this system, with lighter accumulations of 1-3" looking most likely as of now. Much cooler, but still seasonal, temperatures persist through the weekend with highs generally in the 20s & lows in the single digits.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1057 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR and light winds continue, with just a chance for some fog at AXN. If fog does form it will be MVFR at worst. Winds will be greater above the surface than the light winds at the surface will lead to LLWS to start the period. Winds will be variable throughout the days.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA late. Wind E 10-15G25 kts. WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RASN. Wind E bcmg W 10-20 kts. THU...MVFR. Chc IFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 223 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Record high temperatures for February 15th through 18th can be found in the table below. Period of records began: MSP (1872), STC (1894), EAU (1893).

SUN MON TUE Wed 2/15 2/16 2/17 2/18

MSP 63 (1921) 60 (1981) 63 (2017) 58 (2017) STC 55 (1921) 53 (1981) 59 (2017) 57 (2017) EAU 58 (1921) 58 (1931) 55 (1981) 59 (1981)

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.