textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Today through Monday, dry and seasonably warm with highs in the 40s/50s.

- Late Tuesday into Thursday, a large system will bring widespread precipitation across the region. This system will have a band of heavy wet snow, but how far north in MN/WI this snow falls is still uncertain. Currently snow is more likely north of I-94, and rain is more likely south of I-94, with a mix in between.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today through Monday...early afternoon satellite imagery with surface obs showed a lovely mid-February day across the region with mostly clear skies and light winds and temperatures in the 40s and 50s across the region. The MSP airport is on track to set a record high later this afternoon once it eclipses the 50 degree mark, with the previous record being set back in 1882. This will lead to more melting snow, and as temperatures cool overnight could see another round of patchy fog develop across the low-lying areas Sunday morning.

Sunday will be very similar to today, with light winds. The only difference will be a little more cloud cover, and slightly cooler temperatures. Still expect another warm day. On Sunday night, a weak system will skirt along the international border and bring a light wintry mix across the north , but we will remain dry. This system will drag a weak cold front through the region on Monday, but surface temperatures will be only about a degree or two cooler than Sunday, with highs still in the 40s and 50s.

Tuesday through Saturday...Attention continues to be fixed on the large system that will lift up from the southwest on Tuesday, and bring widespread precipitation across the region through Wednesday into Thursday. Overall the predictability of a large system brining a band of heavy wet snow somewhere across the Upper Midwest is high. The predictability where the rain/snow line will set up is low.

Forecast guidance continue to favor a solution with accumulating snow across the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin, transitioning to more rain across central Minnesota and Wisconsin, with lighter precipitation along I-90. There is certainly room for this track to shift, which would bring accumulating snow along I-94.

This system will activate pretty much directly overhead along the weak frontal boundary that pushes through Monday, and eventually becomes a warm front on Tuesday/night. If this frontal boundary is farther south, and activates more quickly, than the southern solution shown by the EC-AIFS would verify. If this frontal boundary remains farther north, and activates more slowly, than the heavy snow band will be to the north as well. For now, pretty much stuck with the blended guidance that has the heaviest snow falling north of the forecast area.

Looking ahead, chances for precipitation continue into next weekend, as a longwave trough remains across the Mountain West, with a strong upper level jet on the southern side of it. This will lead to shortwave troughs moving across the central CONUS, but the timing and placement of these PV anomalies is tough to predict. One thing that looks more likely is the cooler, sub-freezing temperatures to end the week, meaning that any precipitation will likely fall as snow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 517 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Status quo aviation forecast with VFR and light winds outside of the fog chance in the morning. This fog will be most likely in central Minnesota impacting AXN and STC. Also could see some fog extend down into the Wisconsin terminals. Best chance for dense fog will be AXN and STC where some guidance like the LAMP continues to bring in 1/4SM dense fog. Moved vis down slightly from the last set of TAFs, but not confident enough yet to add dense fog into the TAF. Will look again at 06Z for the next issuance to see if confidence in dense fog increases. The question right now is sky cover, as a clear night will increase chances for dense fog. Currently looks like some high clouds could move in, so holding off on the dense fog for now.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA late. Wind E 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RASN. Wind E bcmg NW 10-20 kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Record high temperatures for February 13th through 17th can be found in the table below. Period of records began: MPX (1996), MSP (1872), STC (1894), EAU (1893).

SAT SUN MON TUE 2/14 2/15 2/16 2/17

MPX 46 (2002) 45 (1999) 54 (2011) 62 (2017) MSP 50 (1882) 63 (1921) 60 (1981) 63 (2017) STC 52 (1921) 55 (1921) 53 (1981) 59 (2017) EAU 49 (1934) 58 (1921) 58 (1931) 55 (1981)

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.