textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms may still impact parts of western WI early this morning, but chances are diminishing.

- Heat continues with highs in the low 90s through midweek, but dew points are expected to fall into the 60s this afternoon.

- Storm chances return Thursday into Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

At 2 AM, the dew point at MSP climbed to 81. This has only happened on a few days in recorded history. Per the Minnesota State Climatology Office, an 81 degree dew point was measured on July 17, 2011; July 18, 2011; July 19, 2011; and July 30, 1999. The all-time record is 82 set back on July 19, 2011.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Unimpressive convection continues to fire on the cool side of the +12C isotherm at 700 mb from north central MN into central WI. So far there have been no signs of deeper convection developing that has a chance to form into an organized complex, but that still may happen overnight. Should that happen, WoFS has been indicating perhaps Rusk County being clipped with that activity. However, given the 700 mb temps and the K-Index becoming less impressive with time across WI, odds are activity will remain east of even Rusk County. A cold front will pass through this morning and winds will shift northwest and gust this afternoon. Dry air advection will send currently very impressive dew points in the upper 70s to lower 80s down into the 60s this afternoon. Just before midnight, the dew point at even MSP reached 79, which is quite rare. Despite this, heat indices will climb back to 100 across southern/east central MN and parts of western WI as air temperatures rise quickly this morning. Elevated smoke will return from fires in the Pacific Northwest, which may temper highs a bit, but the hot overnight lows expected will give us a decent head start. The drier air this afternoon will also make the air easier to heat, which may offset the increased smoke some.

The trough will largely bypass us to the east early this week. While we'll knock down the dew points and the intensity of the heat some, temperatures are still going to be above normal heading into midweek.

A shortwave trough will round the ridge, centered over the southern Rockies, to the northern Plains Wednesday night and the Upper Midwest Thursday night. There will be a lot of moisture to work with as pwats increase to 2-2.25 inches. Severe weather risk appears negligible due to near moist adiabatic lapse rates, but showers and embedded thunderstorms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall.

Temperatures return to near normal for Friday and the weekend, but there are indications of the heat returning early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Patches of fog and LIFR stratus have developed due to copious amounts of low level moisture. Conditions have improved behind a cold front now approaching STC and RWF from the northwest. Conditions will improve after sunrise. The front will clear all TAF sites by late morning. Winds will shift northwest and may gust to 20-25 kts through afternoon. Elevated smoke will push in this morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. TSRA likely in evening. Wind SSW 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin- Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan. WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunn-Eau Claire- Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.