textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Typical fall temperatures continue, with slight rises and falls through the next 7 days.

- Rain chances tonight into Thursday, Friday night into Saturday, and Monday night into Tuesday. No severe weather or excessive rainfall threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

It is a beautiful fall day and there are no major changes to the 7-day forecast. A blocking high pressure will remain in place over the Great Lakes / eastern Canada region through early next week, keeping the greatest rain chances west and south generally.

There are three main windows to watch for rain this period, with the first two coming tonight into Thursday, and then Friday into Saturday. In both cases, a weak shortwave will help enhance the nocturnal LLJ, providing enough forcing for a broad area of showers to develop. There will be limited instability with dewpoints stuck in the 50s, so widespread storms and heavier rainfall is not expected. As the rain spreads from west to east Thursday, and southwest to northeast in the case of Saturday, drier air and broad subsidence associated with the high pressure will limit how far east the rain is able to travel.

The pattern will start to show signs of breaking down early next week as a more pronounced shortwave nudges the upper ridge eastward. Tied to the shortwave, a more robust low pressure system would develop at the surface, resulting in a brief warm- up Monday before winds shift out of the northwest and advect in cooler and drier air for the middle of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A few showers out ahead of the main area of convection back across the eastern Dakotas managed to skirt just to the north of KAXN at the start of the TAF period. Expecting the showers to continue to fill in early this morning with MVFR cigs spreading east. The main question is how far east will they make it before being overcome by dry air and fizzling out. Confidence is highest for IFR cigs/vis impacting KAXN/KRWF/KSTC by mid to late morning and lasting through the end of the forecast period.

Our other Minnesota terminals will likely see high end MVFR conditions by this afternoon, but IFR does not seem likely at this point. Wisconsin should remain VFR and dry, but did include a PROB30 for KRNH this evening. Drizzle is the most likely form of precip expected from KMSP eastward, if anything does manage to reach the surface. Southeast winds are expected to be strongest across western Minnesota where gusts of up to 20kts are possible with speeds remaining around 10kts elsewhere.

KMSP...The edge of the MVFR cloud deck and precip will come very close to KMSP this afternoon. Maintained the PROB30 for -SHRA this afternoon and kept MVFR cigs for late this evening as there is higher confidence in the lower ceilings. However, a return to VFR is expected late in the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...Chc MVFR. -SHRA likely. Wind SE 10-20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.