textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Second messy system arrives Friday morning. Another round of freezing rain and snow is expected across western through central Minnesota, though highest snow amounts are expected across NoDak and northern MN.

- Some elevated thunderstorms expected across eastern and southern MN and western WI Friday afternoon and evening, though severe thunderstorm risk is across eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin.

- Cold and dry high pressure moves in behind the next system to end the weekend and start next week.

- Next period of potentially more active weather comes April 9-11.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 422 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A well defined mid-latitude cyclone is moving across Iowa this afternoon , with MN/western WI firmly within a well defined baroclinic leaf. We dodged a winter bullet with this system as the heaviest precipitation with that baroclinic leaf came through during the daylight hours. That daylight has been enough to give us a cold rain most of the day, while areas that have remained all snow in western MN have not had rates high enough to allow for accumulations overcome the melting power of the cloud filtered April sun. For the rest of tonight, precip will end in the MPX area around sunset, but clouds will stick around, with temperatures expected only drop slightly into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Our next weather maker can be seen this afternoon in the Pac NW. This upper wave will develop a closed h5 low that will move across SoDak Friday, then from about Sioux Falls to the southwest shores of Lake Superior Saturday. There will be well defined TROWAL with this feature, which will be reflected at the surface by an inverted trough that will be extending northwest from a surface low that will go from roughly KC to the eastern U.P. Given the track of the h5 low and the path of the TROWAL/inverted surface trough, the zone of heaviest snow will fall across NoDak, then across northern MN from roughly Fargo/Grand Forks, east to Seagull Lake at the end of the Gunflint Trail. Given the path of the surface low and TROWAL track, this puts the MPX area south of the main winter zone and north of the severe threat that will exist out ahead of the surface low.

This storm will come in a couple of waves once again. We'll get a lead isentropic lift area Friday morning into the afternoon, then the main baroclinic leaf Friday evening. Round 1 will be mainly light rain, but a quick hit of freezing rain will be possible across western and central MN Friday morning with this first wave. Round two will be more robust and will have some elevated convection coming across south central into east central MN and western WI. We will see a broad area of rain move across these areas late Friday afternoon through the evening that will have embedded thunderstorms. Given the low freezing levels, it will lead to a threat for some small hail, though the severe risk for late Friday looks to be across eastern Iowa into southern WI. Farther west, this second round of forcing will bring a mixed bag of precipitation. It will be light snow across western MN, with heavy snow across northern MN that may clip the northern fringe of the MPX area in central MN. Up around Lake Mille Lacs, this is where a warm nose will come into play, with another band of freezing rain looking likely Friday evening/night from the Mille Lacs region, east over to the southern shores of Lake Superior. For headlines, we basically have 2 sectors. Redwood and Kandiyohi counties over to SoDak is in a Winter Weather Advisory Friday morning into the afternoon to cover the initial freezing rain threat, but fall off before Friday evening as that round of winter weather will be north of these counties. Our other Winter Weather Advisory extends across central MN from Stevens over to Kanabec counties. This Advisory runs through Saturday to cover the snow/ice potential across central MN. Snow totals in our central MN counties look to run from 2 to 5 inches (highest the farther north you get) and up to 0.2" of icing over in Kanabec county. At this time, it looks like we shouldn't need to expand this advisory along the US-8 corridor in WI, with the freezing rain threat with this system being up near Lake Superior, north of the WI portion of the MPX area.

Behind this system comes a good push of cold air for Sunday/Monday as high pressure dives south out of Canada in northwest flow. This will hold highs back on the 30s and 40s Sunday through Tuesday as we continue to press the pause button on Spring. We'll have a cold front come through Wednesday, but we'll have a quick hit of warm air out ahead of this front on Wednesday with some 60s showing up for highs in southern MN. There may be a light shower or two with the front, but atmospheric moisture will still have not recovered in the wake of this weekend's system. This front will not make it far southeast of MN before stalling out and becoming the focus for the next round of active weather we see in the EPS in the April 9-11 period. Looking at individual members of the EPS, you still see a few members pumping out snow for MSP in this period, so although we would love to say we're done with winter weather after this weekend, we can't completely rule out seeing some wintry weather again with this next batch of active weather. Eventually, we look to be in a more pronounced warm up in mid April, or about 2 weeks out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 714 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Today's precipitation shield continues to retreat northward leaving EAU, MKT, RWF, mainly in the clear in terms of sensible weather currently. The same cannot be said for cigs as all sites can expect to remain in IFR or potentially low MVFR categories through the duration of this TAF. NNE'ly wind direction this evening becomes NW'ly overnight. Our next round of mixed wintry precip arrives late tomorrow morning for AXN, RWF, and MKT ~16z and then filling into all remaining sites around ~20z. Forecast guidance keeps mixed precip mainly confined to AXN, STC, and RWF, however confidence was highest at AXN. Thus, kept snow mentions off of STC and RWF this period. Will need to watch for TSRA potential near MKT tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP... The bulk of the wintry precip has now retreated north of MSP. Did include a short tempo for the potential of a rouge period of showery activity over the next hour due to nearby obs. Cigs w ill remain low tonight between low MVFR and IFR heights. NNE'ly winds this evening become NW'ly around 6z tonight. Once our next system approaches tomorrow afternoon, winds veer E'ly. Feeling confident that for this round of precip that p-type should remain all rain from 22/23z through the rest of the period. Additionally, there is a non-zero chance for thunder remains possible for tomorrow afternoon however confidence remains low. Therefore have kept mentions off during this TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/IFR cigs. -RASN in morning. Wind NW 10-20G30 kts. SUN...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Douglas-Pope-Stevens. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 10 PM CDT Saturday for Benton-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Stearns-Todd. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Renville-Swift- Yellow Medicine. WI...None.