textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence rain continues today and returns on Wednesday, lower confidence rain chances this weekend.

- After a cooler day today, warmer air returns for the rest of the week with some low 70s possible on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Today and Tomorrow... Rain continues to fall across much of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin this afternoon. This area of stratiform rain will gradually shift to the north this afternoon into the evening. Some more isolated to scattered rain showers could come together south of this main area of rain this evening into tonight. This is all driven by a shortwave off to our west. The PVA induced synoptic lift combined with warm and moist southerly flow at 850 mb has given us a solid rain setup. This flow has driven precipitable water values up above the 90th percentile both in observed climatology based on the 12Z MPX sounding this morning and the NAEFS analysis. In addition, all this saturation has also kept us in cloud cover. These clouds will persist well into tomorrow. This cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures low today with highs struggling to get out of the 40s. On the other side, temperatures will not fall much tonight due to these same clouds. Temperatures tonight will also be buoyed by some WAA. As the primary forcing shifts north some rain chances will continue across central Minnesota into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow looks to be warmer as WAA occurs with highs in the 50s to some lower 60s south of I-94 and east of I-35.

Wednesday to Thursday... The early week WAA will continue as we move into Wednesday. This will set Wednesday up to be the warmest day of the week. Highs generally in the 60s, but lower 70s are also likely (most likely across southern MN and western WI). This warm up won't last long as a cold front will move through late Wednesday. This cold frontal passage will also be the driver for our next round of rain. This should be a quicker round of rain as it will be forced by this front rather than today's broader scale forcing. This means by Thursday morning rain chances will be falling off quickly and some of the lingering PoPs are more based on some timing differences within ensemble guidance. With the warmer airmass ahead of the front there could be enough instability for some thunderstorms on Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage. The modest instability will make it unlikely for deep convection and therefore severe storms to occur. Looking towards Thursday's temperatures, this post-frontal airmass will be cooler than Wednesday. Due to high pressure clearing the skies though, temperatures will still be above normal with high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Thursday.

Friday into the weekend... Friday looks fairly similar to Thursday with the exception of the clouds starting to return late as the next system starts to move in from the west. Still a fair amount of spread in how this system plays out this weekend, so NBM PoPs remain broad and low. In general, when comparing the global ensemble systems southern Minnesota has the highest chance with more membership giving rain chances than locations to the north. As we move into the middle of this week there should be more convergence in the various members of the ensembles for us to gain more confidence in where this round of rain will occur. The overall movement of this system though does look to bring back the southerly flow and above normal temperatures look to continue through the weekend. Looking farther ahead into long range GEFS guidance it could be well into November before MSP Airport, the Twin Cities official climate site, falls below freezing. The record latest freezing temperature is November 18th from 2016, so still a while to go. GEFS means though show that it could be close to or after this record when MSP finally falls below freezing.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A stratiform rain shield will continue to overspread southern MN and west-central WI this afternoon. Conditions will fall at least MVFR from southwest to northeast later this afternoon into this evening as visibilities drop due to increasing rainfall rates and cigs fall. IFR is expected across western and central MN tonight as the surface low moves overhead. Farther to the south and east, an improvement in cigs is expected overnight as a dry slot moves in along with more showery activity. Rain will taper off from west to east early Tuesday morning. However, a further reduction in cigs is likely with pooling low-level moisture on the backside of the system. LIFR is most likely in western and central MN for at least a couple of hours after sunrise. East-northeasterly winds will slowly turn clockwise to southeasterly during the TAF period. Speeds of 5-10 knots will also slowly increase with sustained values reaching 10-12 knots and gusts nearing 20 knots Tuesday morning.

KMSP...Steadier rain and MVFR should begin near 20z with conditions falling to IFR from 00-07z. The dry slot and -SHRA should allow for improvement back to MVFR after 07z with -SHRA ending by 12z. East-northeast winds will be near 10 knots through this afternoon. Winds slowly turn clockwise to southerly by tomorrow afternoon with gusts nearing 20 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Chc -SHRA late. Wind E 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.