textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool through tomorrow, then temperatures warm well above normal early next week.

- Dry weather to persist through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

It's a tranquil, seasonably cool Friday afternoon across south central MN and western WI. 500mb analysis displays troughing over the eastern CONUS, which brought a cold Canadian air mass south across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. Satellite captures cloud cover drifting off of several of the Great Lakes owing to the cold air mass aloft (it's hard to miss the impressive band of lake effect rain/snow within the long northerly fetch across Lake Michigan!). Locally, we've witnessed efficient erosion of stratus downstream of Lake Superior that blanketed much of western WI this morning. Satellite shows that a few diurnal Cu are all that remain, which has given way to mostly sunny skies across this portion of the forecast area. Drier air west of the MN/WI line has promoted the persistence of abundantly sunny skies. Afternoon temperatures are on track to finish a few degrees below normal in the upper 30s/near 40 degrees. Large scale subsidence associated with ~1020s mb surface high will support a clear, calm, and cold night with lows forecast to fall into the upper teens to lower 20s (Coolest outside of the TC Metro).

Quiet, sunny weather persists this weekend under the influence of high pressure and the eastward translation of a ridge aloft. Temperatures warm into the lower 40s tomorrow afternoon, which is closer to "normal" for the middle of November. On Sunday, winds will turn southerly on the western extent of the surface high. This will commence a multi-day warming trend that will be reinforced by the expansion of +10-12C 850mb temperature anomalies across the Upper Midwest early next week. Latest forecast from the NBM features highs in the upper 40s on Sunday, the lower 50s on Monday, the mid 50s on Tuesday, and potentially the mid to upper 50s Wednesday & Thursday. Morning lows will run warmer than normal afternoon highs by the middle of next week, capturing the anomalous extent of the upcoming forecast.

The forecast becomes more active mid-week onward as an active jet sends a series of Pacific waves across the CONUS. The first takes the shape of a longwave trough set to come ashore Tuesday near Baja California and lifts northeast across the Plains Wednesday. Most of the moisture associated with this system aims to fall as precipitation on the cool/northwest side of the low, which will be well to the northwest of our forecast area. NBM features chance PoPs for rain showers across eastern MN and western WI within the warm advective wing of the system. Forecast confidence decreases beyond next Thursday due to a spread in the handling of the upper-level features. However, there is a growing deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning trend that supports a larger system taking residence across the central CONUS towards the end of next weekend, which could bring widespread precipitation chances into the region. Cooler, but still mild temperatures in the extended period would favor rain as the dominant precipitation type during the aforementioned timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

No weather expected throughout the TAF period with SKC and VRB03kt winds for all locations for the majority of the TAF. A few upper level clouds could fill in towards the very end of the period, with winds shifting towards 150-180 at or below 8kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SSW 10-15G20kts. WED...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.