textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable high temperatures (40s & 50s) through the end of the work week, with a chance for 60 on Wednesday.

- Small scattered rain chances return late tonight, with better chances and coverage Wednesday afternoon.

- A warm, humid, and stormy pattern takes shape this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Mid to high level cloud cover is dampening the ability to warm up this afternoon, with most struggling to hit 40. As such, have bumped down forecast highs a degree or two into the low 40s to upper 30s. Today and Thursday will be the coolest days of the period, with a brief warm up tomorrow and a more prolonged warm up arriving Friday. A few chances for light precip exist this week. The first chance is less certain and only showing up on a few CAMs in the form of very scattered light rain. The period of development is short, and there is an increasing chance the profile will never saturate and things stay dry. PoPs were reduced to 10-15% at most. Winds will pick up slightly across southern Minnesota due to the increased mixing and we blended in some higher gusts than what the NBM was forecasting to reflect this. The second, more likely, chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front passes through. A ball of potential vorticity will travel along the international border, this is where the heavier precip is expected. However, a tendril of vorticity will stretch south to the MN/IA border, bringing the precip chances down into our neck of the woods. The front should pass through midday, with a SW-NE oriented and of rain most likely between noon and 5PM (earlier in western MN, later in western WI). QPF will be light, if even measurable, on the order of a tenth or less. Wednesday night and Thursday will be cooler on the back side of this front.

This weekend continues to look impressive as increased low- level Gulf moisture is forecast to spread across a large portion of the central CONUS. Ample moisture with broad troughing across the western US and a building ridge to the east will increase the odds for heavy precipitation this weekend into early next week. PWAT values could be anywhere from 200-300 percent of normal. It's uncertain how persistent or strong showers and storms will be during this period, though it is very likely that any given storm will be an efficient rain producer.

The average monthly precipitation for April in the Twin Cities is 2.91" and we are at 1.39" through April 6th. With this weekend's rain, it's looking likely we'll have at least a normal month of precipitation, if not above average. For Eau Claire and St Cloud, the respective monthly averages are 3.08" and 2.61" (Eau Claire is at 1.40" and St Cloud is at 0.89" through April 6th).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Mid and high clouds have arrived along with southeasterly winds around 15kts. Clouds will continue to increase and lower into MVFR territory after 00z with a few sites dipping into IFR for a few hours overnight before returning to MVFR. Winds are expected to increase with gusts around 25kts out of the south. LLWS will also be a concern after midnight for a handful of terminals before diminishing by sunrise. Have removed PROB30 mention of -SHRA overnight tonight for all except KEAU. Introduced some -SHRA/PROB30 for tomorrow morning across our northern terminals. Winds will become lighter and shift to the southwest/west by the end of the period.

KMSP...Removed precip mention overnight tonight and added a new PROB30 for Wednesday afternoon, but confidence remains low on whether or not rain makes it far enough south. Winds will be strongest tomorrow morning as they turn to the southwest and eventually west by the late afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts. SAT...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SE 15-20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.