textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Today and Monday, rain become more widespread late today through Monday. The risk for flooding is low since the rain will be spread out over several hours.

- Monday afternoon/evening, there is a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for a few storms capable of producing large hail across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- Looking ahead, a stretch of cooler and drier weather arrives Tuesday through early next weekend. A few mornings will see lows near freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

Today through Monday, rainfall chances will increase later, with widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight into Monday. The heaviest rain will fall across western Minnesota, where there will be scattered storms ahead of the upper level wave, and then some deformation precip as the system exits the region. Most locations will see around an inch, but a few areas could get close to 2 inches or more. Since this is flatter terrain, and the past weather conditions have been dry, the risk for flooding is very low.

Meanwhile areas in eastern MN and western WI should see around half an inch to an inch. The HREF PPM is much lower in this area, generally around 1.25 inches, which indicates lesser high-end amounts. So even though WPC has a marginal risk of excessive rain, the overall flood risk is low here as well.

As for severe weather, our area remains in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather, and this is tied to a hail threat. There will be enough wind shear for organized convection, but the thermodynamics are lacking in our area due to poor mid level lapse rates, resulting in a skinny CAPE profile. For these reasons, any of the stronger storms could indeed produce some severe hail, but it looks like the threat for very large hail (golf ball size or greater) is to the southeast.

Tuesday through Saturday, as this system exits the region, breezy northwest winds with much cooler air will follow for Monday night into Tuesday. This will last through the week, with highs in the mid 50s to near 60, which is below normal for early April. The Upper Midwest will remain in northwest flow, with occasional shortwave troughs moving across the area. This will lead to small chances (10 to 20 percent) for rain at times, but no widespread or heavy rain is expected through this coming week and into next.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Mostly VFR conditions for now, but this will deteriorate over to MVFR over the next few hours as scattered showers fill in and cigs/vis drop. Conditions to drop to IFR tonight into early Monday morning from west to east as the rain spreads and intensifies. LIFR is most likely across central and western MN Monday morning at AXN, RWF, and STC. Widespread stratiform rain or broken to scattered showers likely lasting for much for the region through the remainder of the period. Expect heaviest rainfall rates overnight with visibilities dropping to 3-4SM, potentially lower at AXN and RWF. Over southern MN Monday morning, showers will become more scattered in nature so not as confident in persistent MVFR visibilities. But, CAMs do hint at a broken line of thunderstorms developing near RWF and MKT within the break in precip so have added TEMPOs to account for this threat overnight. East-southeasterly winds through tonight will increase in speed as the surface low approaches. Sustained values will be 10-15 knots while gusts reach 20-25 knots. Just outside of the TAF period, a cold front will approach and winds will shift to northerly and increase in strength.

KMSP...Scattered rain showers should begin around 8PM tonight with rain becoming more steady from 11PM through early Monday morning. VFR conditions will persist for the first few hours of rain chances before dropping to MVFR after midnight. Cigs will drop to IFR beginning around 7AM Monday. WS possible overnight, added this to the TAF from 3-7AM, though it could last a few hours beyond this. Lower confidence in rain being continuous through Monday morning as CAMs show more scattered -SHRA. Best chance for any -TSRA is a few hours between 6-9AM and again for a few hours early Monday afternoon. Winds will turn westerly after the rain ends late Monday afternoon as a cold front passes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts bcmg NW 10 kts late. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.