textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record temperatures in the 80s both Saturday and Sunday.

- Hot and windy conditions on Saturday could lead to fire weather concerns, especially in western Minnesota.

- Cooler next week with greatest rain chances on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

It is going to be a warm weekend, likely the last of the year, with widespread 80s on deck both Saturday and Sunday. We are already starting to see an increased low-level response to the troughing over western North America. For us, that means increasing southeasterly winds and WAA. By tomorrow, the surface low will move east out of the Canadian Rockies, placing the Upper MS Valley within the warm sector. Strong southerly winds will develop by the afternoon, gusting between 30 to 40 mph. Areas along the Buffalo Ridge could even see gusts exceed 40 mph during peak mixing hours. A Wind Advisory was considered, however, current forecast gusts fall just short of the lower end of the criteria. If trends increase, an Advisory may be needed.

The other thing to watch for this weekend will be the near- record temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions. The latest run of the NBM has trended slightly higher for temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday, with the 50th percentile showing widespread mid- upper 80s each day. There is greater uncertainty with Sunday's highs, but this upward trend would lean things towards a later fropa Sunday night. The records for our three climate sites may actually have an easier time being beaten on Sunday rather than Saturday, despite the higher confidence in higher temps for tomorrow. This is because the records for October 11th are about 5 degrees lower than October 10th. For the 10th, the records are: MSP (90 in 1928), STC (88 in 1928), and EAU (88 in 1928). For the 11th, the records are: MSP (85 in 2015), STC (83 in 2015), and EAU (85 in 1930).

These potentially record-breaking temps will result in elevated fire weather conditions for at least Saturday and possibly on Sunday as well. The strong winds will be there for Saturday, but weaken as we get into Sunday. For both days, RH values will drop into the 30s during the afternoon. Typically we start to worry most when RHs drop below 25%, so the more we can limit how dry we get, the better. Given our wet start to the fall, the amount of dry fuels (dead vegetation) is not as concerning as it might typically be for this time of year. Taking both of those aspects into account, and after coordinating with the DNR, we will continue to lean against issuing any Red Flag Warnings for this weekend. If RH values trend lower than expected, that is what would push us towards issuing a Warning. Otherwise, what is more likely is that we issue a Special Weather Statement for the elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions, especially across western Minnesota.

NEXT WEEK... Temperatures trend down following the cold front passage Sunday into Monday, with much of the week seeing temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. While there may be light precipitation along the fropa early in the week, the best chance for rain will come mid-week, likely on Thursday. The forcing is much more impressive with this wave, with long range models suggesting we even build in a few hundred Joules of CAPE.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Winds will be the primary concern throughout the period both for LLWS and increasing gusts after 12z. VFR FEW/SCT250 to SKC skies are expected throughout, with the only visibility reductions due to blowing dust from agricultural activity. Winds will favor 170-190, increasing above 10kts between 06-12z as LLWS also increases in coverage aloft, with gusts increasing further to 30-35kts after 15-18z depending on location. Another period of LLWS is possible late in the period, mainly for MSP with the extended 30hr period.

KMSP...The 2 periods of LLWS and the gusts are the only real concern, with high confidence in the near 180 direction after 15z through the end of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NNW 10G20kts. TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts. WED...VFR, chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.