textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- An active pattern is forthcoming. A series of wintry systems bring chances of rain and snow Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday into Friday. A stronger winter storm may impact the region next weekend.

- The mild pattern is coming to end with temperatures trending closer to normal midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Considerable high cloudiness continues to stream overhead, but temperatures are still climbing. Readings have reached the low 60s across southwestern MN where cloud cover has been largely absent. Farther northeast, temperatures are rising into the mid 50s and should get close to 60 in areas with thinner cloud cover. The thermal ridge will pass overhead this evening, then a cold front will sink south and clear the area early Monday morning. Mild temperatures will continue Monday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, but cold air advection will persist into Monday night.

A baroclinic zone will remain stretched out from the northern Rockies to central Plains and southern Great Lakes for the remainder of the period. This will lead to a potentially very active pattern through mid March. It begins with a band of snow still likely to develop across central MN into northern WI Monday night. Better model consistency is beginning to take shape and QPF has trended heavier. PoPs remain in the chance range for now since there are still latitudinal differences in the placement of this band. Since it is expected to be narrow, it's hard to raise PoPs beyond that at this range with confidence. However, the frontogenetic forcing and half inch pwats could lead to a couple inches of accumulation in some areas.

As a long wave trough digs into the northern Plains, a powerful upper level jet streak of 160-175 kts is expected to develop south of Hudson Bay. The Upper Midwest will be in the favorable right entrance region of the jet with a ribbon of vorticity also swinging through. A band of snow will develop from southwest MN to northern WI late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. A rain/snow mix is expected at the onset, but will transition to snow Tuesday evening as temperatures drop. Model consistency has improved with this round too, and QPF has trended up. A quarter inch of QPF should lead to a couple inches of accumulation.

The next one in line comes Thursday into early Friday morning. Consistency has been poorer with this wave. Generally expecting it to track across MN with snow on the north side and rain or a rain/snow mix to the south. Heftier accumulations are possible and we may see a stripe of 3 to 5 inches just north of the low track. The wave will be potent, and stronger cold air advection on the backside will lead to northwest winds gusting to 35 mph.

The baroclinic zone sinks a little farther south for early in the weekend, setting the stage for an even stronger wave progressing east across the northern CONUS Saturday night and Sunday. Deterministic guidance has improved with consistency, but there remains some spread among the ensemble members and AI guidance. This may be a significant winter storm with heavy snow and strong winds to the north of the track. It will have sufficient cold air in the wake of the previous system and plenty of moisture and instability from the south. This will be one to watch.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A cold front will continue to push through this evening causing another extended period of 40kt LLWS between now through ~8-10z timeframe across all sites. An area of light rain has developed across E'rn MN and moved passed RNH. Most observed rainfall has stayed north of EAU however included a prob30 mention until 2z for -SHRA just in case any droplets manage to reach the surface. S'ly winds will shift SW'ly late this evening then becoming NW'ly by tomorrow morning. Gusts will increase between 18-20kts as the front passes but then decrease to around 10-15kts early tomorrow morning. Bkn to Sct mid/high level cigs will linger through the remainder of the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR, chc -SN/IFR overnight. Wind NE 10kts. WED...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 10G25kts. THU...VFR. Chc -RASN late. Wind S 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.