textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and comfortable conditions expected today with highs into the lower 80s.

- The next best chances for rain come this evening into Sunday morning, Sunday night into Monday morning, and early Tuesday morning.

- A few storms each of those periods may be strong to severe, mainly over southwestern and southern Minnesota.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values into the middle of next week, then drop below normal late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

High pressure sliding southeast into the Upper Midwest behind a departing cold front will allow for a relative break in the action for today, and actually a very pleasant day is on tap with all the synoptic factors in place. Broad subsidence, warm early August temperatures and comfortable humidity levels will make for quite the Saturday today, featuring highs into the lower 80s.

However, as the surface high slides into the Ohio Valley later today into tonight, the aforementioned surface front will retreat slightly northward tonight and linger just to the south of MN/WI, if not make slight inroads into southern portions of both states tonight through early Tuesday. The front will link up with a developing low pressure center over the Dakotas which will then slowly slide eastward along the front over the weekend. In addition, broad troughing aloft will send several shortwave disturbances rounding the base of the trough over our region during the next few days, particularly the evening- nighttime periods, and some of these disturbances will coincide with enhanced nocturnal low-mid level jetting. The return of the front will also bring a slight uptick in humidity levels, nothing excessive but dewpoints will rise from the 50s today to the 60s to near 70 over the next couple of days. This will elevate instability levels which, when combined with the nocturnal jetting and upper level disturbances with the front acting as a low-level focusing mechanism, may be just enough to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next few mainly nighttime periods. It's the low-mid level jetting which may be the tipping factor that could produce a few strong-to- severe storms each nighttime period tonight- Monday night, particularly for southwestern to southern Minnesota. Coverage will be pretty sparse and uncertainty is fairly high in even the development of any strong-to-severe storms. However, its potential cannot be ignored, thus the delineations of Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risks in the SWODY1, SWODY2, and SWODY3 outlooks by SPC.

The upper level low lingering over Hudson Bay finally loses its grip Tuesday morning, opening up and shifting eastward, allowing the surface front lingering nearby to no longer linger nearby and bring in broad surface high pressure over the north- central CONUS. While a few weak disturbances aloft may drift through, the lack of any aligning surface features means few mentions of precipitation from Tuesday onward through the rest of the week. And, any mention of precip that is found in the forecast will have little QPF and forcing along with it. In addition, the warm mid-August temperatures feature in the forecast through Wednesday will take a tumble back for the end of the upcoming week as upper level flow turns from WNW to more NNW, bringing in a touch of cooler Canadian air which will reside over the area from Thursday onward. This will push highs from the 80s through Wednesday back down to the 70s starting Thursday. Similarly, lows forecasted in the upper 50s to mid 60s through Wednesday night will drop to the 50s area-wide from Thursday night into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Large uncertainty exists surrounding the potential for thunderstorms across the region tonight. A few CAMs show a bowing line of storms forming in western MN near midnight and traveling east-southeast into early Sunday morning. A few other CAMs are much less aggressive with convective development and have scattered -SHRA and perhaps -TSRA traveling east across the area near and a few hours after sunrise Sunday. Have sped up PROB30s over MN by a few hours to account for the earlier possibility possibility of storms. Conditions could fall to MVFR within the heaviest cores. Once the chances for rain move east, VFR is expected over MN for Sunday. However over WI, cigs look to dip to MVFR (near 1500 feet) for a few hours Sunday morning before rising again. Southwesterly winds this afternoon turn southerly and generally slow tonight. Northeasterly winds become more predominant across MN as Sunday progresses.

KMSP...Moved up timing of PROB30 for -TSRA to 07-12z. If a line of storms forms early Sunday morning, thinking heaviest thunderstorm activity should remain south of MSP. But, the northern portion of the line could clip MSP resulting in MVFR. Northeasterly winds near 5 knots likely Sunday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc early A.M. -SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts becoming NW.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.