textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty showers and an isolated storm possible over western and central MN this afternoon. Showers likely for portions of northern WI tonight. Next chance of rain is Thursday.

- Our first shot at widespread sub-freezing temperatures is possible Saturday morning.

- Above-normal temperatures return to start next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

High temperatures across the region today look a little goofy as a surface front is slowly making its way south and east, while early morning cloud cover is playing a big role too. As of 1PM, you can see the warm airmass situated over southern MN up towards the Twin Cities metro and over towards Eau Claire, WI. Here, temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s. Eau Claire is giving a run for its daily record high of 86! Areas north and west of this airmass are much cooler, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. There is a tongue of slightly warmer temps that lifts up along and north of the MN River Valley though, with plenty of sunshine helping warm things closer to 70 within this corridor.

A surface low is beginning to develop over southern MN this afternoon as large scale forcing increases. This will eventually help usher in the cooler airmass for everyone in the Upper MS Valley, dropping lows into the 40s and 50s tonight. This system is also expected to trigger spotty showers or isolated convection as it moves east this afternoon. Areas across western and central MN remain favored for any precipitation, though amounts continue to look fairly light (about 0.1" or less).

Temperatures cool down closer to normal for the rest of the week, with another shot at rain developing Thursday as a cutoff low over the central Plains and a northern shortwave impinge on each other over the Midwest. It may end up being the case where we fall somewhere in between the two areas of forcing, and as a result, don't receive much rain at all. PoPs remain highest across southern MN into WI where up to a couple tenths are possible, and confidence continues to trend down for areas further north.

Potentially the bigger impact from this wave will be the drop in temperatures on Friday, and more specifically Saturday morning. Clear skies and northwest winds advecting in a cooler, drier airmass will both support efficient radiational cooling Friday night. Temperatures by Saturday morning could drop below freezing for much of the upper MS Valley, with the only real exception being the core of the Twin Cities metro. Regardless of how cold we can get to end the week, upper-level ridging is expected to build back in to start next week which would feature another round of above normal temperatures... though not as warm as we have been this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A frontal boundary extending NE from a low pressure center sitting over the SW MN corner will all continue to shift east through this evening, dragging a wide area of low stratus already over the northern half of MN through the Dakotas and westward across the Upper Midwest. All TAF sites will have ceilings drop into MVFR from this afternoon through this evening, with MVFR (and potentially a few periods of IFR) ceilings lasting for much Tuesday. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible for the northern TAF sites but does look to stay away from MSP. Relatively light winds at initialization will become NW 8-12kts from this evening through midday tomorrow as the front moves across the region.

KMSP...VFR conditions to prevail going into this evening, but with mid-level ceilings expected around 00z. Ceilings will then continue to drop to MVFR levels this evening and remain there through most of Tuesday. No precipitation nor any IFR ceilings are expected, but ceilings may well drop to sub-1700ft by around midnight and remain there through late Tuesday morning. Light/variable winds will become NW with the frontal passage this evening, then remain there with speeds 5-10kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts. THU...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind light/variable bcmg NW 10-20kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.