textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions to develop across west- central and southwest Minnesota today.

- Widespread thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday afternoon & evening. The strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado is also possible.

- Near-normal highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s this weekend into next week. Tracking precipitation chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

WARM AND WINDY TODAY...Another quiet night across the Upper Midwest thanks to the influence of a ridge over the north central portion of the CONUS. Temperatures have been quick to cool down thanks to clear skies and the presence of a dry air mass. We've nudged morning lows down a few degrees to account for this trend. Surface analysis captures a warm front extending from central ND southeast through SD into western IA. The front is progged to lift north across the region today in response to the evolution of shortwave trough forecast to pivot northeast from the Rockies into the northern Plains over the next 48-hours. Strong southwesterly flow will develop across the Plains, which will support the advection of an elevated mixed layer into the Upper Midwest. Efficient mixing of the very warm air mass will yield highs in the 80s for most communities. Hot temperatures near 90 degrees are forecast across western MN. Conversely, highs only reach the upper 70s across western WI. Forecast soundings depict mixing up to 6k feet across western MN, which will support surface gusts between 30-35 mph. Gusts will be slightly less intense across eastern MN/western WI, say between 20-30 mph.

HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY...Very warm temperatures and deep mixing will yield low minimum RH's this afternoon despite the ongoing advection of 40s/50s dew points from the south. We've continued to trend our dew point forecast towards the HRRR due to its superb handling of the degree of mixing over the past few days. As a result, our grids display min RH's between 20-30 percent. It's possible that RH's may dip into the upper teens across western MN this afternoon. Combine the RH's with a forecast of sustained winds between 15-20 mph and peak gusts upwards of 35 mph and the pieces are in place for critical fire weather conditions to develop. In addition to the atmospheric parameters, several fuel indices (CFDRS/NFDRS) have climbed into the 95th percentile territory, indicating a very dry fuel scenario. As a quick aside, WFO MPX's fire weather program lead is also highlighting high VPD (vapor pressure deficit) values across southwestern MN, which is a better indicator of the dry state of the atmosphere than RH in hot high temperature scenarios. With this in mind, we have opted to convert counties in the Fire Weather Watch to the going Red Flag Warning in place from noon-8 PM. We're also highlighting near-critical fire weather conditions across far eastern MN via a Special Weather Statement.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...Surface low pressure will deepen over the northern Plains as the upper trough pivots north and phases with a trailing wave over southern Canada Thursday. This evolution will send a cold front eastward out of the Dakotas tomorrow morning. As referenced above, the presence of an EML should provide a cap on the atmosphere through most of the morning. Frontal forcing will increase by late morning/midday, allowing for convection to blossom and grow upscale with eastward progression through the afternoon and evening. A narrow region of low 60s dew points are forecast to advect northward into southern MN ahead of the expected window of convective initiation, which will yield a ribbon of CAPEs on the order of ~1k+ J/kg. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest deep layer shear will support a hail threat early in the event when cells are more discrete in nature. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, however current expectations are that the tornado threat will be maximized farther south in the warm sector. Strong unidirectional shear and large scale ascent should promote upscale growth into linear segments capable of producing damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and evening. SPC captures these risks with an eastward expansion of the Slight Risk (Level 2/5) in the new Day 2 SWO, which includes the TC Metro and southern MN. The northern half of the forecast area is included in the Marginal Risk (Level 1/5). Heavy rain potential continues to increase with each update, owing to the presence of +3 sigma PWAT anomalies (PWATs ~250% of normal) forecast to overspread the region. QPF amounts will likely be the lightest across western MN where cells will be more discrete in nature and the precipitation window is shorter-lived. Our latest forecast captures the potential for 0.25-0.50" liquid west of a line from roughly Redwood Falls to St. Cloud. Amounts increase to 0.5-1" along the I-35 corridor and exceed 1" in southeast MN along I-90 and across western WI. While the convective nature of this rainfall will result in local variability, trends are increasing in a good soaking rain for the eastern half of the forecast area. Add in consideration for convective rates and some guidance shows the potential for localized amounts in excess of 1.5" (most likely east of I-35).

COOLER THIS WEEKEND...Temperatures will fall back to more seasonal levels behind the departing system on Friday. Should be a relatively quiet period of weather Friday-Sunday, with dry weather and highs in the upper 50s/low 60s each day. Widespread rainfall chances return to the forecast late Sunday/early Monday as a shortwave within the southwesterly Pacific jet lifts towards the Upper Midwest. Early week rain chances followed by continued troughing over southern Canada will keep temperatures near-nomral values in the extended period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout this period with slowly increasing high cirrus clouds. SE winds expected throughout with increasing wind speeds, especially from late this morning on through Thursday morning. Sustained speeds will increase to the 15-20kt range with gusts 25-30kts, if not occasionally higher at times this afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault- Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Todd-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.