textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather continues today! Near normal high temperatures in the 80s the next few days, followed by slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s midweek.

- Tracking rain & thunderstorm chances Monday evening into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

We'll follow up Saturday's gorgeous start to August with another superb day of Summer weather ahead! All is quiet early this morning, with light winds and clear skies over the region. We're watching surface observations in the typical ground fog prone locations, but so far there has been little in the way of visibility reductions. Short term guidance is most aggressive with fog along the MN River in western MN, but current trends would suggest it will be a few more hours before greater coverage of fog develops. Fog will once again erode shortly after daybreak and set the stage for a beautiful Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s under sunny skies. Southeasterly winds may become breezy at times across western MN as the surface pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of an incoming weather system from the northwest.

The Upper Midwest remains beneath a ridge that extends from the Four Corners region all the way into western Ontario. The ridge axis is progged to translate east over the next few days as an active Pacific jet (currently coming ashore over the Pacific northwest) spreads across the northern CONUS. A vigorous shortwave will advance through central Canada Monday, driving a trailing cold front eastward across the Dakotas. The front will spawn the highest convective chances during the entire forecast period Monday evening across west-central MN. SPC's new Day 2 convective outlook features little change from the prior Day 3, with a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) in place across the far northwestern extent of the forecast area and up into the Red River Valley. A Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) extends southeast of the Slight Risk to a line from Redwood County to Mille Lacs County. The setup for severe storms is driven by a secondary embedded shortwave that will kick through the broad upper flow Monday evening and support deeper convection across the eastern Dakotas. Forecast soundings across western MN highlight stout capping as an EML expands east over the region Monday afternoon. This should work to limit any early attempts at convective initiation despite the eastward expansion of stronger flow aloft. The aforementioned frontal forcing and a strengthening low-level jet will support a linear complex of storms moving into western portions of the forecast area later Monday evening. Damaging winds and hail are primary threats owing to a pool of ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40kts of effective shear per the latest HREF & REFS guidance. Convection will move east through the night and likely weaken given the unfavorable nocturnal timing, along with displacement from the stronger synoptic forcing to the northwest.

A few showers or a storm may linger into Tuesday morning prior to the passage of the cold front. It's possible that a few showers or storm may fire along the front near the MN/IA border in the afternoon, but those chances should be relatively short-lived. We'll keep chance PoPs from the NBM in the grids along I-90 for now and will lean on forthcoming CAM ensembles to better define the PoP window. Otherwise, Tuesday looks like a quiet day of weather for most of the forecast area with northwesterly flow and mid-level cold advection behind the frontal passage. Cooler high pressure settles in mid-week and will result high temperatures falling slightly below normal (upper 70s) Tuesday & Wednesday. Speaking of cooler temperatures, overnight lows are forecast to dip into the lower 50s for locations outside of the Twin Cities urban heat island Wednesday morning. Warmer mid- level temperatures sourced from ~600 dm Four Corners ridge are forecast to expand east later this week, which results in temperatures climbing back into the mid 80s late week into the weekend. Precipitation chances look isolated at best through the second half of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Another day of VFR conditions with light easterly/southeasterly winds is expected today. Fog is less prevalent this morning than yesterday, but still included a few TEMPOs for the next hour or two. Winds begin to shift to the south late in the period into Monday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts. TUE...VFR. Chc am -TSRA. Wind W/NW 10-15kts. WED...VFR. SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.