textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Gloomy Christmas Day with drizzle or freezing drizzle possible throughout the day leading to slick travel conditions.

- Mild temperatures continue through Saturday with a frontal passage leading to below normal temperatures Sunday into next week.

- Northwest winds gusting over 40 mph likely Saturday night into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes is bringing in warmer and more moist air from the south this morning. This has provided for fog and low stratus across the I-90 corridor. Thermal and moisture profiles have also allowed for the DGZ to get saturated in the area providing for some brief snow flurries. With the lack of any real forcing though it will just remain flurries. Drier air to the north of the I-90 corridor has been keeping the low stratus and fog at bay. The moisture will continue to slowly move north, but as sunrise approaches the diurnal heating of the atmosphere will make it harder to reach saturation. However once the sun sets and we start to cool this all changes. Significant agreement among model guidance from CAMs to coarser resolution deterministic models suggest ample saturation in the lower atmosphere tonight into at least Christmas Day. This saturation does not look deep, making it look much more like a classic drizzle sounding. The question then moves to surface temperatures as below freezing surface temperatures would make this a freezing drizzle event. Expected cloud cover during the day today will keep high temperatures mild and in the 30s. This means ground temperatures will not be able to warm much during the day today, which favors freezing drizzle. However the best chances for drizzle to occur is in southern and western Minnesota where the snow pack is lighter and therefore temperatures get a little warmer. Timing wise the first chance for drizzle will be Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as cooling diurnal temperatures lead to saturation in the lowest 100 mb of the atmosphere. This saturation continues through all of Christmas Day and doesn't fully break until the CAA arrives this weekend. So fairly high confidence on the drizzle, but the questions are how widespread it gets and if it will be below freezing at the surface as it falls. Still a fair amount of spread here between models both in how widespread drizzle gets and for the thermal profile. It will be close to the freezing line, so this is a forecast that could change with just an offset of a degree or two.

This could be a multi-day drizzle event. Not non-stop drizzle, but a setup for on again off again drizzle Friday into even parts of Saturday. This doesn't fully clear out until the frontal passage this weekend. Strong CAA along the back of this frontal passage will bring with it stronger winds with gusts over 40 mph expected. Temperatures will also fall taking us from highs in the 30s through Saturday down into the teens Sunday. This brings wind chills on Sunday down into the teens below zero. High pressure moves in on Monday and the gusty winds come to an end. The next chance for some precipitation looks to come on Tuesday night. Thankfully in this cold air it would all fall as snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Our blanket of mid-high level clouds is gradually clearing east, revealing an expanding deck of low level stratus across the southern third of Minnesota. Ceilings are generally MVFR/IFR within this deck, which will continue to spread north until winds shift out of the northeast this evening. There is an area of dense fog that has developed over the southwest corner of Minnesota. This may expand through the day, but so far it has stayed generally in the same area.

Southeast winds will shift out of the northeast by this evening which should help shift the stratus back south. Winds will be light though, so confidence is low on how much the MVFR/IFR ceilings retreat. Winds turn easterly tomorrow morning, and then increase out of the southeast by tomorrow afternoon. This will allow the stratus to overspread the region again, and potentially lead to a period of drizzle or freezing drizzle by later in the day.

KMSP...Low end MVFR cigs have developed this afternoon as the stratus deck has quickly spread north. A period of IFR ceilings may develop later this afternoon/evening, but confidence is too low to include at this time. Winds start out of the southeast and gradually shift out of the northeast through this evening. These MVFR/IFR cigs will stick around until winds are out of the northeast.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU PM...MVFR/IFR with chc DZ/FZDZ late. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/IFR early. Wind light/variable. SAT...VFR, chc MVFR. Wind S 5-10 kts bcmg NW 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.