textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm temperatures persist this week, with highs running well above normal.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible early this evening into tonight. Another round of isolated showers and storms possible tomorrow.

- Dry, less active pattern late week through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Fairly quiet and warm afternoon underway across the Upper Midwest. Any lingering remnants of the morning showers and storms across southwestern MN have dissipated. However, GOES visible satellite displays that cloud cover associated with the morning convection has been slow to clear and has played a role in slowing warming thus far today. That being said, temperatures have quickly warmed into the upper 80s/near 90 for locations that have observed breaks in the clouds (for example, temperatures have climbed to 90 degrees at AXN & OVL).

From this point onward, our focus will be on potential thunderstorm development. While forcing is somewhat nebulous, we turn to remnant outflow boundaries/weakening MCV associated with the morning convection across southern MN and an incoming backdoor cold front sagging southward across north central MN as potential forcing mechanisms. However, confidence is low in where/when convection will develop and CAMs offer us only a vague picture into how the potential convective scenario. SPC mesoanalysis reveals that moderate to strong convective inhibition exists over the region, so we anticipate that it will still be a few hours before any storms develop. By late afternoon/early evening, the environment is forecast to feature ~1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE, modestly steep lapse rates, and PWATs near 1 inch which will be supportive of a localized damaging wind/large hail risk. In addition, forecast soundings reveal dry low-levels represented by an "inverted-v" which further supports the wind potential. The limiting factor for deep, strong to severe convection is weak effective shear on the order of ~20-25kts, so we anticipate that most storms will be pulse-y and disorganized. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) to capture the threat of damaging wind (60 mph) and large hail (1"). Due to the lower confidence in where convection will develop, we opted to run with HREF CAM paintball cluster as a starting point for 20-30 percent PoPs this evening/overnight and will update grids to boost local PoPs as the convective picture becomes clearer. The front will sag south tomorrow and we'll once again look for isolated chances for pulse convection. Best chances look to be across southern MN tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Dry weather returns to the region for the remainder for the week into the upcoming weekend under the influence of Great Lakes high pressure. While there will be some day to day fluctuations, the general trend is for temperatures to remain above normal in the 80s (perhaps near 90 across western MN) as the region remains positioned to the west of the surface high in a region favored for warm return flow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A bit of a difficult TAF forecast with quite low confidence in where/when SHRA/TSRA may develop across the area over the next 24 hours. This is in response to poor steering flow aloft with overall weak upper level forcing, low level outflow boundary collisions and high degree of disorganization with any clusters of precipitation that do form. CAMs portray very little confidence in not only the occurrence of storms but when they would occur. If a timeframe had to be put on it, generally the 00z-06z time period looks to be the most favorable but, as we saw this morning, pre-dawn convection is also possible with weak nocturnal jetting aloft aiding in elevated convection. Thus, have kept the TAFs dry at this point, keeping the TAFs a cloud/wind forecast and will monitor radar trends and adjust the TAFs as needed.

KMSP...Multiple cloud layers will prevail throughout this TAF duration with convection not being able to be entirely ruled out. Confidence is low on any given timeframe to be specific in the TAF for including CB/TS mention, so have kept the TAF dry. That said, modest CAM "agreement" looks to pin down the 00z-06z timeframe this evening for having a few showers/t-storms develop near MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.