textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another snow-bearing system arrives late this morning in western MN and spreads southeast into southern MN during the afternoon/evening. About 1-2" of snow is expected south of the MN River.

- Bitter cold this weekend, coldest Sunday morning with wind chills dropping from -30 to -35F.

- A big warm-up looks possible for the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Cloud cover tonight has created a stark contrast in overnight lows. Where it's clear, temperatures have bottomed out to within 5 degrees of zero. Meanwhile, cloudier regions remain in the teens. Overcast skies will develop this morning as our next clipper system arrives. Highs as a result will only warm into the mid to upper teens. Flurries are possible from central MN into western WI today, but the majority of the snow is forecast to fall in southwest MN, close to the strong thermal gradient and mid-level forcing of the clipper. Snow will start in far western MN by mid-morning and slowly spread southeast into southern MN by early afternoon. The snow will end across western MN late afternoon and then southern MN by tonight as the system slides into the Midwest. Snowfall amounts aren't forecast to be too heavy, but 1-2" is possible across our far southwestern MN counties, particularly along I-90 near Fairmont. Travel may be a little difficult in this region Thursday afternoon/evening, as partially snow covered roads could result. Thursday night's lows won't cool too much (only the single digits to low teens) due to continued overcast skies.

A cold front will move east across MN and into WI by Friday afternoon. A few snow showers are possible ahead of the front during the morning and early afternoon hours, but accumulations should only be cosmetic. Northwesterly winds will also increase as the front passes with gusts reaching 25-35 MPH. This could cause areas of reduced visibilities as any freshly fallen snow could blow around, particularly in the rural areas of central and western MN. However, the biggest concern with this cold front is the very cold, Arctic air that will proceed it. Deterministic models forecast an Arctic airmass with 850 hPa temperatures near -28 C and an attendant surface high pressure to move into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest by this weekend. Temperatures will begin their plummet Friday night as lows are forecast in the mid- negative teens in central MN while negative single digits are progged for southern MN. Highs Saturday won't be fun either as values will struggle to rise above 0 with negative single digits looking likely for most of our CWA. The low point looks to be Saturday night as the NBM has temperatures at least in the negative teens with negative 20s likely for most of our MN counties. If these temperatures weren't alarming, the wind chill values during this time period should be. While winds will slow after Friday, they should still be steady enough to greatly affect the "feels like" temperature. Wind chill values are forecast to be at least -20 F for most of the area Friday night and Saturday night with central and western MN having a good chance at seeing -30s. Winds during the day Saturday could get breezy such that wind chill values don't really improve even with sun. Due to this, cold weather headlines will be needed in future updates for at least a portion of this weekend.

Sunday looks to be slightly warmer but still decently cold for this time of year. However, a big warm-up looks likely to happen for Tuesday and Wednesday as upper-level ridging moves into the Northern Plains. Nearly all of the area is currently forecast to have highs near or above freezing each of these days, which would be drastic change from what we'll experience this weekend. If you like more traditional winter temperatures, temperatures are favored to cool slightly after Wednesday with highs and lows more towards normal. But, if you want continued chances at snow, long-range models don't suggest any significant chances for precipitation Saturday through most of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

MVFR cigs are finally on the move with some light snow passing far to the southwest across southeastern South Dakota and northern Iowa. There's still a chance that KRWF and KMKT see some light snow over the next few hours, but dry air in the lower levels may win out. Have included a PROB30 for this threat. Winds remain light and variable, but generally southeasterly ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will be the focus for some early morning snow across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. MVFR/IFR cigs/vis are expected to develop by late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Winds turn to the northwest and become gusty by the end of the period following the frontal passage.

KMSP...KMSP should avoid the snow outside of a few flurries this afternoon. Expecting VFR cigs to return this afternoon before coming back down ahead of the aforementioned front late tonight. Unsure of how far south the snow associated with the front will make it, so have only included a PROB30 for now. By late morning, northwest winds start to increase with gusts of 20 to 25kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind S early, bcmg WNW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.