textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across central MN and western WI, some could be strong with hail and gusty winds being the primary threats.

- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend.

- Below normal temperatures continue through the middle of next week with slight (10-30%) chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Overall, little to no changes from previous forecast packages with scattered showers/storms this afternoon across the forecast area and fair/quiet weather conditions through the weekend. Temperatures through the period with remain below the seasonal average for mid June. Slight chances for rain return to the forecast Monday night into Tuesday, along with late next week.

FRIDAY...

The first half of your day will feature mostly clear skies with ample sunshine. Cool morning temperatures will rebound nicely through the late morning and early afternoon timeframe in response to ample sunshine, with high temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Upper level low over western Ontario will rotate a mid-level lobe of energy across the Dakotas and into Minnesota during the afternoon and evening hours, along with a cold front that will drop south out of Canada. This combined with sufficient low-level moisture (DP temps in 50s) will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across central MN and western WI. Looking at convective parameters, MUCAPE values generally top out in the 250-500 J/kg range with 50 knots of shear and steep lapse rates. Forecast model soundings suggest that when showers/storms do evolve this afternoon and evening, they will be relatively high-based and low-topped. The somewhat strong northwesterly flow aloft and 50 knots of shear favor some organized convection. The question that remains, how sufficient will the 250-500 J/kg of CAPE be? That said, an isolated storm or two embedded within the band of showers/storms could pose a threat for some hail and strong to severe wind gusts. Something we will be monitoring throughout the afternoon and evening.

THIS WEEKEND...

The aforementioned cold front will advance south and east by Saturday with conditions across the area drying out in it's wake. An isolated shower/storm will be possible across our far southern MN Counties on Saturday. Temperatures will remain below the seasonal average for mid June with highs topping out in middle 70s across the area, upper 60s to around 70 degrees for northwest portions of the CWA. Much of the same can be expected on Sunday with highs in the low to middle 70s under mostly sunny skies.

NEXT WEEK...

Persistent longwave upper level troughing over east half of Canada and CONUS will keep the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest upper northwest flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will remain below average through midweek with high temperatures through Thursday in the middle 70s. Overnight low temperatures fall into the low to middle 50s. One of the more sensible weather changes will be the dew point temperatures, DP temps will be much more comfortable compared to what we experienced over the past several days.

Low-end/slight (10-30%) rain chances return to the forecast Monday night into Tuesday as the next piece of energy embedded in the overall flow aloft drops south/southeast out of Canada. Thereafter, deterministic model guidance and their respected ensemble suites show moisture and rain/storm chances increasing by late next week. Something we will continue to monitor in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The 12z TAF period opens with a few patchy areas of strato-cu amid a mostly clear sky. Main change to this TAF package was to clean up timing of the anticipated increase in wind gusts later this morning. Forecast soundings advertise deep mixing which will support 25-30kt gusts at the surface and diurnal Cu between 6-8k feet. A wave will move eastward across the region this evening and will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. PROB30s were maintained and adjusted based on latest HREF timing.

KMSP...Peak daytime westerly gusts are forecast to top out near 30kts. No change was made to the going PROB30 from 2-5z, as latest model trends continue to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during this period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.