textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

-Gusty south winds today. Winds gusts over 40 mph across southwest Minnesota, 25-35 mph elsewhere.

-Scattered rain showers this afternoon & evening, along with a few rumbles of thunder. Most locations will see rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.25"

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Gusty winds & scattered rain showers are in store today associated with a cold front moving through the region. Southerly winds will quickly increase after sunrise with the strongest winds peaking over 40 mph across southwest Minnesota this morning. Elsewhere, gusts of 25-35 mph are expected from mid-morning into late afternoon. The gusty winds could lead to overachieving temperatures today where deeper mixing & some compressional warming occurs immediately ahead of the cold front his afternoon. Could see highs reach the low 70s across southwest Minnesota where the aforementioned strongest winds will occur, while temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s elsewhere.

A few isolated showers are possible across southern Minnesota this morning, but the main band of rain will develop across western Minnesota during the early to mid- afternoon, spreading into eastern Minnesota 7 western Wisconsin through the late afternoon & evening. Rainfall amounts will be light, generally 0.1-0.25", but some locally heavier downpours could occur with the strongest showers. Just enough instability looks to be present this afternoon to generate a few rumbles of thunder, but widespread thunderstorms are not expected. The rainfall ends from west to east through the late afternoon 7 evening with most of the area dry by 10 PM.

Cooler & dry weather returns behind the front Sunday through Monday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s. Sunday night will be the coolest period with lows falling into the mid 30s across portions of easst-central Minnesota & western Wisconsin, bringing the potential for patchy frost in rural low-lying areas. Otherwise, the forecast remains quiet through next week as the main storm track stays north of the region. Temperatures warm back above normal Tuesday through the end of the week, with highs generally in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Today's main aviation impacts are wind and an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking west to east. These showers and thunderstorms have not shown any ceiling drops into MVFR. On a visibility front only the heavier rain areas associated with the thunderstorms have seen a drop into MVFR. Warm advective winds have provided for gusts up to 30 knots. Winds will calm along a mostly diurnal pattern, but some western locations could see a drop sooner associated with frontal passage. Tonight into tomorrow looks to be VFR with light winds.

KMSP...Biggest challenge today will be the timing of the showers moving across Minnesota. Current best estimate is at 21Z, but there is about an hour of uncertainty on either side. Thankfully this seems to be a low VFR kind of impact as the most likely scenario, with worst case being MVFR. Southerly winds continue, gusty during the day, until a shift to the northwest tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.