textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain chances return this weekend with Saturday offering the best chance for showers across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- A frontal passage brings more widespread rain Monday night into Tuesday.

NEXT WEEK

On Monday, south/southwesterly flow will remain locked in across the region ahead of the next upper level shortwave trough. High temperatures will warm a few degrees from Sunday, around 70 degrees areawide. With anomalous moisture in place, the next upper level shortwave and associated surface front will promote widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday. As of now, there's still a degree of uncertainty regarding how this system evolves. That said, it's to difficult, with little forecaster confidence to determine exact rainfall totals. Looking at 00z deterministic models and their respected ensemble suites, guidance is painting greater than 50 percent chance(medium to high confidence) of 24 hour rainfall totals of greater than 0.10 inches areawide. Looking at the probability of 24 hour totals greater than 0.50 inches, guidance is painting at 20-40 percent chance(low to medium confidence).

The next chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday period. An upper level trough will move across the Desert Southwest before ejecting northeastward across the Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. There still remains uncertainty regarding this system, and how far north the associated deep and anomalous moisture advects. That said, 20-40 percent PoPs remain in the forecast grids, highlighting Wednesday night into Thursday rain chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 554 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A mix of mainly MVFR and VFR as we start the 12z period with the exceptions of AXN at LIFR and MKT at IFR, with satellite showing a healthy stratus deck that seems unlikely to dissipate fully throughout the day. Most sites should see gradually rising CIGS as daylight arrives with mainly VFR after 15-16z, with winds at 120-150 below 10kts throughout with limited gusting. CIGS look to lower once again late in the period as a line of -SHRA will approach from west to east after the end of the period into Saturday.

KMSP...Aside from adjusting the prevailing conditions to match observations, the TAF was largely kept intact from the 06z as no major changes have been observed within the forecast or guidance.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. SUN...MVFR/-SHRA early, then MVFR to VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.