textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend over the next few days. High temperatures expected to peak Saturday afternoon.

- Low stratus & fog are possible tonight & Thursday night as warmer air interacts with the melting snowpack. High temperature forecasts for Thursday and Friday will be dependent on cloud/fog & lingering snowpack.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The great melt of 2026 has kicked into overdrive this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s across much of the region with a few sites in the lower 50s along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN. A strip of cooler sites can be found over south-central MN into W WI and this is tied to two things. These locations received the heaviest snowfall over the weekend & were the last to clear out from the low stratus clouds. Looking ahead, temperatures will continue to warm over the next several days that will help accelerate the melt.

There continues to be some uncertainty between forecast models and tonight's forecast. The main concern for the next couple days will be the potential for low stratus and fog. As ridging from the Plains builds east, we will observe a surge of warmer air aloft today and an inversion around 2 kft will develop. This inversion should stick around through the next few days, acting to lock in the low level moisture associated with the snow melt. I have opted to lean into the scenario that support areas of dense fog developing overnight. The combination of low level moisture via the snow melt & light and variable winds will support a perfect environment for fog. This is reflected in the WX grids for tonight & Thursday night as a similar scenario plays out. Temperatures warm back into the 40s and lower 50s on Thursday, although the fog & stratus could play into how warm some locations end up. By Friday, the snow cover will likely have melted off across southern and western MN, and stronger surge of low level WAA should be able to mix out any morning stratus. This will allow our temperatures to warm without the restriction of snow pack or cloud cover. Highs in the 60s are currently expected there, with 50s lingering farther northeast where the deeper snow may still be hanging on. On Saturday, temperatures peak with highs in the 60s and 70s. Aloft, a thermal ridge will move across the state, bringing with it 925 mb temperatures of +18 to +22 C. This signals that some locations in S/SW MN could see high temperatures warm well into the 70s and possibly lower 80s under the right conditions. Uncertainty remains on the cold front passage, but the AIFS & ECMWF continue to trend in the Saturday evening/Saturday night time frame. High temperatures could be warmer than current forecast for S & SW MN Saturday. Colder temperatures return Sunday and into next week - a welcome return to more typical late March Spring weather.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Scattered high clouds persist this evening, with low to mid- level clouds becoming possible overnight. Fog is likely to develop tonight, but overall confidence isn't particularly high given the increased mid level cloud cover. While mid-level cloud cover could slow the process, light & variable winds combined with snow melt moisture trapped beneath the inversion should support fog. AXN, RWF, STC, and MKT have the highest chances for IFR/LIFR overnight. Fog will be slow to burn off, but should improve Thursday AM. Low stratus likely remains on Thursday given the feedback loop with snowmelt & light winds.

KMSP...Chances for IFR conditions exist overnight due to fog/mist, but have lessened in likelihood given the amount of clouds expected. As such, changed the prevailing IFR to a TEMPO from 5-9AM. If we clear completely, visibilities will drop. Otherwise, light and variable winds overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts. SUN...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.