textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Severe thunderstorms are possible in these areas. The primary concern is damaging winds.

- Chances for additional rainfall after today are few and far between, with temperatures heating up into the 90s this weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Let's begin! Regional radar highlights decaying showers along a quasi-stationary boundary draped across southern Minnesota and into west-central Wisconsin. This boundary will be the catalyst for additional thunderstorm develop this afternoon/evening that I'll touch on later. The winner from last night's rainfall was central MN where 2 to 4" fell with lesser amounts across south-central MN, the Twin Cities Metro, and western WI. Fast forwarding to current time, overcast skies have limited temperatures to the 70s with light winds present. This has made for a rather gloomy and damp day across the region.

This afternoon through Tonight... our attention turns back to the stalled frontal boundary draped across southern MN. Instability will build in along and ahead of this boundary this afternoon. Forecast soundings along I-90 paint 2000+ MLCAPE and sufficient lapse rates given the better atmospheric recovery. The limiting factor will the lack of better low level wind shear. This shouldn't prevent severe weather but it'll limit how impactful or the higher end threats. Forecast soundings are supportive of clusters or multi-celluar storms that could include an embedded supercell-type structure. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of S MN and WC WI this afternoon and evening to address the potential for severe.

However, the frontal boundary's position along or just north of I-90 will limit the potential impacts to MPX's CWA. Storms initiate mid- late afternoon in SC and SE MN along the I-90 corridor. As the storms intensify they'll likely move downstream to ARX and DMX's CWA in N IA/SE MN so the window for severe weather is mostly closed, but non-zero. The primary concerns will be damaging winds and maybe a brief tornado yet again the best chance of severe exists down stream given the current position of the frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall is also possible along I-90 but the storm motion will limit the potential for any significant rainfall amounts.

Thursday through Saturday... the winds of change begin to usher in a pattern change. Broad troughing over the Gulf of Alaska will begin to dig into the Pacific NW and off the West Coast. This causes our mid and upper level pattern to amplify in response to the western troughing. The ridge begins building in over the Central Plains and Mountain West Friday into Saturday. This will usher in a less active, much warmer pattern for the weekend and into next week.

Sunday through the middle of next week... An impressive 600dm ridge will become centered over southern Minnesota. I am opting to lean onto the AIFS & ECMWF suite more than the GEFS for the upcoming warm up given the consistency with both the deterministic Euro and the AIFS + their ensembles. There is still some uncertainty for the exact intensity and placement, but a 597 to 600dm ridge typically means we'll have some impressive heat in place Sunday into the middle of next week. This is a fairly stand out pattern that is not typical for this portion of the CONUS. The EPS has a +3 sigma anomaly with respect to the 500mb ridge. That's about as much of an outlier event as you can get. That also means that our machine learning guide will likely be slightly cooler with respect to surface temps given this falls out of most historical cases it would use to train on. Will it be a dry heat? Well for some it will be a drier heat than we previously had, but surface dew points still end up in the mid to upper 60s each day. This is far better than if they were in the mid to upper 70s. It is too early to say if we'll have any extreme heat products, but the lack of higher humidity/Td's means we'll rely more so on actual air temps. It will also limit our rain/storm chances as the jet will be directed up and over the ridge. Any ridge rider MCS should be well into Canada. The meteorology would support potential highs in the mid to upper 90s Sunday-Tuesday time frame... with a chance of 100 degrees not out of the question depending on how things pan out. EPS has ~10% chance Monday & Tuesday across I-90 and into the Twin Cities metro so it's not a great chance, but there is a chance. BPH OUT.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Tricky forecast through this evening with the wavy/wobbly surface front draped over the area in combination with multiple disturbances aloft helping spawn scattered showers/thunderstorms through this evening. Still the best chances for precipitation will be southern-eastern MN through western WI. Therefore, have kept AXN-STC dry while other sites have mention of mainly -RA as CB/TS mention is too difficult to pinpoint with any confidence at any given site. Will need to see how radar trends evolve in order to issue an AMD with CB/TS but the hazard for any given site cannot be ruled out. Behind the precip, ceilings look to drop to MVFR for most locations overnight through Thursday morning, followed by gradually clearing skies as Thursday progresses. Winds will generally run under 10kts, which may force directions to have varying directions. In addition, the thunderstorms and associated outflow boundaries may produce localized breezy/gusty conditions.

KMSP...Best timing for rainfall looks to be within the earliest portion of the 08/18z TAF as the greater chances of CB/TS looks to be south and east of MSP, thus have kept mention of MSP precip to just -RA. Still could have some thunder/lightning but no organized storms look to reach MSP today. Conditions become tranquil with lowering ceilings tonight through sunrise tomorrow, followed by partial clearing during the day Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for Freeborn. WI...None.