textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another mostly cloudy day is on tap to start the week with highs struggling to reach 60.

-Gradual warm up on the way with next chances for precip late Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Radar shows the rain ongoing across the southwestern corner of Minnesota is struggling to make it up to the Minnesota River Valley early this morning. This is likely due to low/mid level dry air as a high sits to the north of the Great Lakes continues to advect drier air into the region. Did cut back on PoPs quite a bit for today across the CWA, with the exception of our far southern/southwestern Minnesota counties. Clouds will persist through the day again with highs barely touching 60 for the central and eastern portion of the CWA and only getting into the low 50s where precip is expected. We'll finally see clouds start to move out overnight, particularly for the eastern half of the forecast area. This will allow temperatures to tumble into the 40s with a few upper 30s across western Wisconsin. Another cool night is expected for Tuesday with lows in the lower 40s/upper 30s. There's still a possibility we'll need some frost headlines across east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin Wednesday morning.

Temperatures rebound nicely for Wednesday as southerly flow returns with the departure of the Great Lakes surface high to the east. With this will come a slight increase in moisture ahead of a trough moving across the Dakotas. Western Minnesota still has the best shot at seeing some rain overnight into early Thursday, but the eastward extent is still uncertain as the feature washes out. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there's decent spread in the guidance beyond Thursday. Overall, warmer temperatures still seem likely through the weekend (70s) with precip chances increasing area wide by the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Very little change to the TAF forecast this morning. Radar returns were getting uncomfortably close to KRWF, but still not convinced anything is actually making it to the surface. Went ahead and added VCSH through this morning and kept the afternoon PROB30. Elsewhere, low end VFR conditions should prevail through much of the period before solidly VFR cigs return late tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds are generally easterly at 10kts or less.

KMSP...Still think there's a few hours where KMSP could go MVFR early this afternoon, but -SHRA will remain to the south. Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR, chc AM -SHRA. Wind SE 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.