textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Today, periods of snow, along with gusty winds and falling temperatures.

- Today, gusty winds will combine with bursts of snow to cause low visibility and difficult travel at times in open areas across western and southern Minnesota. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 6pm.

- Looking ahead, cold temperatures this weekend and through next week. The coldest will be Monday morning with wind chills of -20 to -30 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Main changes to the forecast are slower arrival of snow for today, and lower snow totals overall with this system. However, did keep the Winter Weather Advisory going since there will still be reduced visibility from burst of snow and gusty winds.

Today...Early morning satellite imagery, radar, and surface observations revealed just clouds and relatively warm temperatures of mid 20s to lower 30s across the region. However, upstream there was an arctic front approaching from North Dakota. This front will move through today bringing gusty northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph, falling temperatures, along with periods of snow showers. Did continue to lean on the higher end of guidance for wind gusts this morning through this afternoon.

While snowfall amounts should be less than an inch, most if not all locations will see at least some snow today, so did increase chances closer to 60 to 80% since the odds of remaining snow- free are low. In addition, gusty winds will lead to blowing snow, making it very difficult to measure. Meanwhile, forecast soundings show temperatures cooling behind the arctic front, but by mid-day we should see a deep dendritic growth zone along with weak forcing for ascent. This should lead to scattered snow showers, and feel the approach of using a Winter Weather Advisory is more appropriate in this environment than trying to capture areas of heavier snow with multiple snow squall warnings. As for what you can expect, periods of reduced visibility, with near zero possible at times in open areas, but there is no snowpack, so roads should remain possible throughout the event.

Tonight through Thursday...Overnight, snow showers will taper off and temperatures will continue to cool. By early Saturday morning, expect lows ranging from near zero across central and western MN, to near 10 across western WI. Highs will rebound little if any during the day on Saturday.

On Sunday, another clipper system will move to the north, and could bring a burst of snow early in the day. This system will be developing right over us, which makes confidence a little lower than most setups. If it develops more quickly, expect widespread snow with up to a couple inches possible in western WI, but if it develops a more slowly, then much of Minnesota will remain dry (like this past Thursday), and areas in Wisconsin will receive less snow. For now, did increase chances for snow, and will see if this trend carries forward with the next model guidance.

One thing that is for sure is that a reinforcement of cold air will push through Sunday night, leading to wind chills of -20 to -30 for Monday morning. This would be close to extreme cold advisories thresholds, but not anticipating the need for warnings.

Looking ahead, temperatures will remain cold the rest of the week, with a few chances for light snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 521 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The timing of the arrival of -SN and the strongest winds have been delayed compared to the 00z/06z TAF periods, however otherwise there have been no significant changes to the ongoing forecast. Expect MVFR CIGS with windows of IFR visibility due to -SHSN and BR, especially for AXN/RWF/MKT/STC where winds will be stronger compared to MSP/RNH/EAU. Snow accumulation will generally remain under an inch or two, with the highest amounts near EAU/RNH. Winds will remain 300-330 in direction, increasing to 15-20G30kts before diminishing by the end of the period.

KMSP...Primary timing window for the lowest VIS due to -SN will be roughly 16-20z, however -SN will continue through roughly 03z before diminishing completely. The strongest winds will arrive an hour or two later than the heaviest hourly snowfall rates, however some minor BLSN is possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/-SN likely, chc IFR/LIFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. TUE...VFR. Wind W to S 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood- Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca- Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.