textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy frost across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin through sunrise.

- Well-above normal temperatures Tuesday with highs near 80 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Clear skies, light winds, & high pressure overhead have allowed temperatures to fall into the mid 30s across portions of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin early this morning. A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM, with frost most likely in rural low-lying areas through sunrise. Temperatures rebound quickly this morning as southeasterly winds increase, with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s this afternoon. Upper level forcing increases late this afternoon & evening from a combination of an approaching jetstreak & weak ripple of vorticity passing through northern Minnesota. Enough forcing looks to be present to generate some scattered light rain showers this evening, primarily north of Interstate 94 across central Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin.

Well-above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday as shortwave ridging briefly builds over the upper Midwest, & breezy dry southwest winds lead to deep surface mixing. Highs in the low 80s looks possible across southwest Minnesota & could reach 80 into the Twin Cities metro. Cooler air returns following a frontal passage Tuesday night bringing a modest cool- down for Wednesday through Friday, although highs will remain right near seasonal norms in the mid to upper 60s. Southerly flow then returns for next weekend, allowing temperatures to climb back into the 70s. Dry weather looks to persists into next weekend as upper level ridging generally predominates over the central CONUS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 744 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR through the period with some mid-level clouds through the day. There is a small chance of -SHRA late this afternoon across central MN so added a PROB30 at STC. Calm winds overnight progressively increase to around 10 kts by late morning. Gusts of 20-25 kts are expected across western Minnesota. Directions will generally be northerly overnight, but switch to southeasterly & then more southerly through the morning & afternoon. South-southwesterly LLWS increases late this evening to near 45 knots.

KMSP...A few gusts around 20 kts are possible at times through the afternoon. South-southwesterly LLWS of 45 knots is expected from 06-13z Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SW to W 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. THU...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Chisago- Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd. WI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk.