textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for appreciable rain are limited this week, mainly for scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early Tuesday morning, a few producing hail and gusty winds, followed by scattered showers late Tuesday night and again Friday night.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values through Wednesday, then drop below normal Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Modest high pressure will be the prevailing surface feature today with a wavy quasi-stationary west-to-east front sitting over the Central Plains, mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley. Low-level moisture remains fairly high this morning with near-zero to zero dewpoint depressions across just about all of the WFO MPX coverage area, resulting in areas of fog over southern and eastern portions of our coverage area. Once that low level moisture burns off, a mix of sun and clouds can be expected with highs into the low-mid 80s. Clouds increase tonight as the front lifts back north while ever-present Hudson Bay upper level low spins a potent shortwave around its western and southern fringes towards the Upper Midwest later tonight into early Tuesday morning. Nocturnal jetting will also again develop within a fairly unstable environment, putting ingredients in place for the development of overnight showers/thunderstorms. There is already decent CAM agreement on a cluster of storms looking to develop in eastern SD and northeastern NE around 06z tonight, then pressing ESE into southwestern-southern MN, thus near and south of the MN River. Arguments can be made of having an MCS develop if the convection aligns with the timing/placement of the nocturnal LLJ. As such, this aligns with the placement of the Marginal Risk in the SWODY1 (and the edge of the Slight Risk along our border with WFO FSD). Due to the timing of the potential convection, the SWODY1 bleeds into the start of the SWODY2 period, hence the very similar placement of the Marginal Risk in both outlooks.

Precipitation will wane shortly after sunrise Tuesday morning, making for a tranquil day with highs again into the low-mid 80s and highest dewpoints pooled in far southern MN, into the lower 70s. Another round of scattered showers looks to develop late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning but this round looks much more benign, potentially not even having thunderstorms associated with it.

Once past this early Wednesday morning round of rain, conditions look fairly dry through the rest of the workweek as high pressure nudging southeast from western Canada will be the prevailing feature. So much so, in fact, that temperatures are still advertised to take a drop to below normal levels from Thursday onward, coming out of the 80s and into the 70s. There is a weak low pressure system over the Plains which may thrust some isentropic lift into the region, potentially producing scattered rain showers for Friday night into Saturday but again nothing looks to be organized or impactful. The below normal temperatures will then remain in place through the upcoming weekend with little in the way of appreciable precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Dry conditions expected throughout this duration although pre- dawn through sunrise fog at the WI TAF sites has dropped conditions to LIFR-or-worse. Once past the fog, VFR conditions will prevail with passing high clouds and smoke. Light & variable winds overnight become SE after sunrise and remain there through the day Monday with speeds into the 5-10kt range. There is a growing chance for convection over southern MN in the hours approaching 12z Tuesday morning, likely reaching MKT and potentially RWF-MSP. The next few TAF issuances will resolve the details but there is already decent CAM agreement of having a complex develop in eastern SD overnight which will slide SE over southwestern MN, with some uncertainty as to how far north it may reach.

KMSP...VFR conditions through this evening with winds shifting from NE after sunrise to SE this afternoon with speeds under 10kts. Chances increase a bit that convection overnight from eastern SD may reach far enough north to impact MSP. Have included a PROB30 at this point to account for it but uncertainty is too high at this time to include CB/TS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc -SHRA late. Wind SE 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.