textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- After a day of near normal November temperatures today, we will return to above normal for the rest of the next week.

- No significant chances for precipitation over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Rest of Today into Tonight... After seeing the first freeze of the season for the core Twin Cities metro this morning we will see a gradual warming period. Despite being much colder today than what we have seen recently, this is actual right about normal for this time of year. The normal high for today at MSP is 47 and the normal now is 32, so only a few degrees off of what we are seeing today. Tonight will be another cooler night and will depend on how the clouds evolve. Fairly confidence we will see clouds spread across western Minnesota helping limit radiative cooling. To the east though this cloud cover gets less certain and we will see more radiative cooling and there looks to be a push of some CAA across Wisconsin. So it will be this area with the coldest temperatures tonight.

Saturday into next week... Overall this looks like a fairly dry period with the only chance in the main deterministic global models being a possible Alberta Clipper late Wed into Thursday. Not seeing much in the NBM right now through, as this is not as consistently shown within the ensemble solutions. This keeps the NBM based long term forecast dry. We had such a wet start to the month though that we are at 800 percent or higher month to date on precipitation at our STC and MSP climate sites. To put this another way, we would still be above normal if we saw no additional rain or snow at our STC and MSP climate stations for the rest of the month. Past the dry part of the forecast the other key message will be a return to above normal temperatures. After Friday's taste of what normal November temperatures are like we will warm back to above normal. Mostly neutral to warm air advection through mid week before the clipper chance. After that we could see another cooler, closer to normal, period late next week. However another rebound still looks likely so this next round of cold air does not look like it will be the one the makes to cold last. Looking into longer range model guidance it might not be until late November or even early December before we get some more consistent cold to stick around. Put another way, it is going to be a while before we start seeing lake ice or a snowpack. Which was expected for a strong El Nino year.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Conditions over the next 24 hours will vary significantly from west MN to west WI. IFR to LIFR is likely across western MN and will decrease in likelihood to the east with very little chance to fall below VFR at EAU. In general it will be AXN and RWF with the highest chances to go down into IFR CIGS with AXN having the best chance for both IFR ceilings and visibility. STC and MKT are on the edge of where these lower ceilings will reach so have opted for now to keep out the IFR, but will need to keep an eye on the evolution of the sky cover this afternoon into the evening to see if we need to shift the low stratus farther east. MSP and RNH are the far edge of where these lower ceilings could go, so have also opted to keep these lower ceilings out for now. Winds will be light more from a northerly direction today shifting to a more southerly direction tomorrow.

KMSP... There is a chance for MVFR conditions in the morning as shown the the SCT layer in the TAF. Not currently confident in this occurrence, so keeping it away from a ceiling for now, but based on the evolution of the pattern this afternoon this could change.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S bcmg W 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.