textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of light & fluffy snow moves through today, with snow showers across most of the area. Blowing snow and impacts to travel are most likely for western and southern Minnesota where winds are strongest. A Winter Weather Advisory begins later this morning through this evening for the areas where blowing snow is most likely.

- Gusty northwesterly winds leading to blowing snow and travel impacts this afternoon and evening will also help drop temperatures significantly into Thursday.

- Extreme Cold Watch has been issued area wide starting Thursday night through Saturday morning. We could improve enough to bounce between Advisory and Warning conditions, especially during periods of weaker winds on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A few light snow showers are still being squeezed out of the lower level cloud cover moving into southeastern MN and western WI this morning, with observations as of midnight for our office in Chanhassen/MSP of 0.3 and 0.1 inches respectively. Whatever snow does fall is quite fluffy with not a ton of moisture within it, which is unfortunately perfect for immediately turning to ice when driven over. This has led to some very slick roadways despite there not being a ton of snow, so morning commuters should still give themselves a bit of extra time this morning. The main round of snow from the incoming shortwave will arrive in western Minnesota by mid morning and eastern Minnesota by late morning and spread eastwards into the afternoon before dwindling by the evening, with most of the area expected to pick up a half to full inch of new fluffy snow by the time it ends. Snow ratios will be high due to how cold it already is, and increasing winds could knock them down a bit if they end up shearing apart the snowflakes as they are falling. The strongest overall winds are expected from western to southern Minnesota where the Winter Weather Advisory is, with peak gusts of 40-45mph out of the northwest possible. Whiteout conditions are possible, however our lack of a prevailing snowpack diminishes this somewhat, on top of our new snowfall being relatively small. Regardless, there will likely be some slow travel within the areas experiencing the strongest winds today, so travelers should still drive within their limits and use their headlights to reach their destinations safely.

Behind the departing snowfall, northwesterly winds remain blustery and continue to advect cold air into the region leading to what looks to be our coldest stretch of temperatures this season and the coldest we have experienced in at least a few years. 850mb temperatures drop to -35 to -40F by early Friday morning, which we have not seen in the area since the significant cold stretch of January 2019. Continued cold air looks to remain place given the northwesterly flow aloft, with a surface high riding the flow into the region to lock in the temperatures Friday before exiting on Saturday. The coldest air temperatures look to be present at the surface Saturday morning, with -20s to -30s possible, however weaker winds will result in similar wind chills to Friday morning. We will more than likely need an Extreme Cold Warning for a portion of the area if not the entire area, the question is how to deal with the period during the day Friday where we will drop back into Advisory criteria as we warm up just a tad during the day. The cold lingers as the high pressure moves through on Saturday with slow improvement into the start of next week, however we do not look to get back to normal temperatures with highs in the mid 20s until the first week of February based on the ensemble mean temperatures through the rest of the month.

We still look to avoid any major snowstorms moving through within the scope of the forecast, with meaningful snow chances absent throughout the 7 day period and even beyond with our only chances for snow being more clipper in nature. Compared to how we started the Winter, we have definitely slowed down but are still running near normal for snowfall through this point in the winter, although you may not believe it due to the warm up and melting we experienced in late December.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs to start the period with all sites becoming MVFR as -SN moves in from 16-18z through roughly 21-00z. Brief IFR conditions are possible especially in the areas with the strongest expected winds, which right now would be AXN/RWF/MKT. Winds shift towards 270-300 later in the period before weakening after 00z, with gusts also diminishing by that time as well. Lingering BLSN will drop back as the winds do, becoming VFR as skies begin to clear out later in the period.

KMSP...Brief periods of IFR are possible due to falling and blowing snow, however total accumulations should be around an inch. Measuring will be difficult, but we expect to see new snow on the ground and blowing around as soon as snow begins this morning until the winds drop back after 01z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE to W 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Faribault- Freeborn-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Stevens-Swift- Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce- Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.