textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms forecast Sunday and Monday. Severe storms look likely Sunday evening and again Monday afternoon and evening.

- Slight risk (2 out of 5) of severe weather Sunday and Monday. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible with severe thunderstorms on Sunday.

- Quieter weather expected the rest of next week, with below normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 814 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Tricky forecast through tomorrow morning. The issue is that we've seen convection straddle the MO/IA border, this should generate an MCV, but that looks to head for southern WI. The main upper trough will be back across MT, with the LLJ enhancement associated with it driving a higher precip threat into NoDak. This leaves us stuck in a bit of a no-mans land with nebulous forcing for precipitation at best. We've started to slowly pull back on PoPs through the morning, but haven't completely pulled out the rug on our precip chances Sunday morning yet. The HRRR continues to show spotty showers developing between 2am and 9am. This would be on the leading edge of the elevated instability moving in from Iowa. The model spread gets no better for Sunday afternoon/evening. Most models show a QLCS developing Sunday evening, though there is considerable latitudinal position variation. We will say, if we don't see much convetion Sunday morning, it will give us an undisturbed environment for the atmosphere to work with for any potential QLCSs Sunday afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

We are seeing another day of deep mixing across the region this afternoon. This has caused dew points to plummet with relative humidity values in the 20 to 30% range. Minimum RH values will end up in the teens this afternoon. This has prompted critical fire weather conditions where stronger northwest winds are present across portions of central Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely elsewhere given the dry air mass and fuels but lighter winds. Attention will turn to thunderstorms to our southwest across Nebraska and Iowa tonight. Guidance brings the theta-e gradient into the region early Sunday morning. Conceptually, this should support scattered t-storms and showers along the boundary as it lifts northward. The exact evolution remains uncertain, with hi-res guidance trying to split the Twin Cities area with showers/storms to the west and east of us Sunday morning. If an organized MCV moves out of Nebraska - this could influence the shower/storm potential Sunday morning. These storms shouldn't be severe, but could lead to a wet start to the day.

On Sunday, the warm front will lift northward and any lingering showers/storms should decay and exit the area by Sunday afternoon. This should lead to a brief lull Sunday afternoon that will allow for clouds to scatter and instability to rebuild into the region. Our attention will turn to an active stretch Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Assuming we're able to dry out and recover, steep lapse rates, favorable shear, and moderate instability will be present Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings across SW and SC MN show a legitimate environment for severe weather. The limiting factor will be the timing of the forcing across our forecast area. I felt better about the set up two days ago than I do now. Slower timing & a weaker shortwave likely limit the Thunderstorms should initiate to our southwest across SE SD/E NE/NW IA/far SW MN. These storms will likely be discrete supercells capable of producing all severe hazards. These storms will congeal Sunday evening as they trek east into central/southern/eastern MN and western WI Sunday night. The primary severe hazard will become damaging wind gusts once storm mode turns linear Sunday evening. However, increasing low level shear and southeasterly sfc winds ahead of the line could support a favorable environment for brief QLCS tornadoes. The severe threat will gradually wane overnight into early Monday morning as the line of storms tracks east into Wisconsin.

For Monday, the severe risk remains conditional on Sunday's round of thunderstorms and where the residual outflow boundaries remain on Monday. It's possible an MCS moves through and pushes the boundaries to our southeast and the remain on the fringe of the severe threat on Monday. The synoptic set up remains similar with the surface boundaries likely somewhere between the Twin Cities metro and Eau Claire, WI. The warm sector should see temperatures in the 70s and allow ample instability to build in Monday afternoon. Current guidance would support the best environment remaining off to our southeast in Iowa/WI/IL but the uncertainty with what we're left with Monday AM is large enough to warrant a Slight risk for our S/E areas. The day 3 SWO from SPC did include a subtle shift to the southeast with the risk areas. There is still a concern across SC & far east MN and western WI for another round of severe Monday afternoon/evening.

For the remainder of the week, a colder/drier air mass will move into the region behind the Monday system. Much colder temperatures are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as highs struggle to hit 60. Overnight lows could dip into the mid 30s across portions of central Minnesota Tuesday night. There could be a few disturbances that move through, but the signal for any significant/impactful weather appears limited in the long term for now.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 716 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Tough forecast this period tying to pin down precip potential. The problem is we are seeing lots of convection way down on the MO/IA border. Any MCV from this will likely remain well southeast of the MPX area. Meanwhile, the main upper trough is way back in MT, which keeps the best forcing tonight well to the west in NoDak. That leaves the MPX area stuck in the middle with rather muted sources for lift and precipitation development. We hung our hat on the spotty showers the HRRR shows developing in roughly the 7z to 14z period as the elevated instability starts moving in for highlighting the best shower potential in the morning, which resulted in moving prob30s for shra up a few hours from the previous TAF. The next chance for showers will come in the afternoon. TS should develop around 20z in eastern SD, but strong warm advection to the east may result in showers developing over MN in the afternoon, ahead of any potential TS coming out of SD. For cigs, followed the trend of the LAV and other hi-res models, but was not quite as aggressive as them with bringing in IFR cigs by the end of the period. Will wait to see just how a stable stratocu field develops before going IFR.

KMSP...Moved the morning shower potential up to before 12z, associated with when the elevated instability arrives. A lull in precip is expected through the rest of the morning, with shower potential increasing at 22z, with 1z to 4z looking to feature the potential for a squall line to move through the metro.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind N 10-15 kts. TUE...MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15G25kts. WED...VFR. Wind NNW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton- Douglas-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd. WI...None.