textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday followed by near normal temperatures for Sunday onward.

- Rain chances return Saturday and remain in the forecast through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Other than a gradual warm-up through the end of the week, little day-to-day change in the weather is expected from now through Friday. This is due to the center of an area of high pressure sliding east across the International Border the rest of today through midday Thursday, keeping clear skies in place along with light winds overnight (which may promote patchy to areas of fog early Thursday morning) followed by winds swapping to a SE direction which will promote slow warm air advection across the region. This will allow for high temperatures today, Thursday and Friday running some 15-20 degrees above normal, including the potential for highs hitting 80 degrees over southwest MN Thursday and Friday.

The pattern change starts late Friday into Saturday as a well- organized area of low pressure develops over the Northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday, then rapidly shifts NNE into central Canada over the weekend. A cold front sagging south from this system will sweep across the Upper Midwest Saturday through Sunday. The system will lose a lot of its Pacific-origin moisture as it moves across the Rockies and into Canada, but enough frontal lift combined with its remaining moisture may be enough to squeeze out some scattered rain showers Saturday afternoon into late Sunday. Although the front will be well SE of the WFO MPX coverage area come Sunday into early next week, a few weak upper level shortwaves may be able to interact with the stalled front to produce a few showers from time to time across our area for the first have of the next work week.

The more noticeable change will be with respect to temperatures behind the cold front. We may have hit the point of the last 70+ degree high temperatures as strong cold air advection will knock back high temperatures into more seasonable levels of the low- mid 50s. Similarly, lows will drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s for at least the start of next week. While CPC outlooks still highlight above normal temperatures through the rest of this month, normals fall to the upper 40s to lower 50s by the end of this month. Thus, with those lower normals and continuing lowering sun angle, "above" normal highs will likely remain only in the 60s and have a very hard time returning to the 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Still anticipating areas of fog tonight, but thinking densest fog will be confined near bodies of water/river valleys. Have TEMPOs at RWF, MKT, and EAU for where fog is most likely. Worst areas will see visibilities down to 2sm (IFR) before fog burns off. Scattered high to mid-level clouds arrive towards the end of the TAF period. Light/variable winds tonight become southeasterly by late Thursday morning with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots.

KMSP...Refrained from any mentions of fog for tonight. Confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. Southeasterly winds will range from 5-10 knots this afternoon through Thursday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SSW 10-15G25kts. SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR late. Wind N 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.