textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/Freeze Headlines in effect from midnight tonight through Tuesday morning.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible Monday afternoon.

- Next best chance for rain arrives late Monday into Tuesday with low-end chances for the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A quasi-stationary boundary that was draped over south-central MN has now reached the MN/IA border. A remnant band of scattered mid- level cu remains apparent across portions of southern MN this afternoon from this boundary but is expected to diminish as surface high pressure sinks southeastward through the rest of today. Current temperature range in the 50s for most although a bit warmer (in the low 60s) across southwestern MN where cloud cover has been less prevalent. Like yesterday, forecast guidance continues to undercut forecasted wind speeds and gusts, therefore have had to nudge winds higher this afternoon based off of observational trends. Thus, breezy northwesterly winds 20-25 mph can be expected especially across western MN before decreasing tonight. The timing for this surface high aligns just in time for when we should see our coldest temperatures for the week. Mostly clear skies will aid in radiational cooling for all of our overnight lows to reach the upper 20s, especially across central Minnesota into portion of western Wisconsin. Therefore a Freeze Warning has been issued from Douglas and Stearns Counties in Minnesota over to Ladysmith and Eau Claire Counties in Wisconsin. Aside from the core TC-metro (Hennepin and Ramsey), a Frost Advisory has been issued for the rest of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

For Monday, temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer. An upper-level troughing pattern over the eastern Great Lakes will continue eastward allowing for western thermal ridging to build in across the plains. There will be a mix of clouds and sunshine for much of the day as our next shortwave trough approaches from the northwest. High temperatures will range mainly in the 60s to the lower 70s across western MN. One concern we will have to monitor is the potential once again for elevated fire weather conditions. Depending on the shortwave's timing of the strongest winds, conditions may briefly reach Red Flag criteria. By Monday night is when we see the arrival of rainfall but all planned evening activities should remain dry. Precip coverage across western MN for this event has been very tricky due to guidance having a tough time with managing surface dry air. However, ensemble guidance continues to favor areas along and east of I-35 to accumulate a few hundredths to near a tenth of an inch of rain. Therefore have nudged PoPs into 70-75% envelope for eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A threat of a few isolated rumbles of thunder still exist but instability continues to trend downward.

As for the remainder of the week, the pattern remains "somewhat" active. Ensemble guidance does hint at additional chances of precip in the latter half of the week. However, given the spread amongst membership, felt NBM PoPs advertising 20-40% sufficed for now. If you're a fan of this chillier fall-esque like weather, this may be the last hurrah of the season. Temperatures return to normal with highs warming into the 70s and maybe even lower 80s later in the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 713 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. SKC through Monday morning then high clouds will filter in from the west Monday afternoon-evening. NW winds will settle down to around 10kts at initialization, eventually going light/variable late evening through sunrise, then picking up from the SE after sunrise to around 10kts, with occasional gusts 15-20kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, Chance -SHRA/MVFR early. Wind SW to NW 15-20G35kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10kts. THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for Benton-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison- Sherburne-Stearns-Todd. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault- Freeborn-Goodhue-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin- McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott- Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan- Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for Barron-Chippewa-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for Dunn-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.