textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of rain expected today though Friday afternoon. Rainfall totals of 1-2"+ possible.

- Brief break for the weekend before near daily shower and storm chances arrive late Sunday through the end of the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A line of showers and a few rumbles of thunder have found the sweet spot along the Minnesota River Valley early this morning. Despite meager CAPE, mid level lapse rates of 8C and adequate shear have sustained a narrow, broken line of showers and storms back into northern South Dakota. This activity should diminish over the next few hours before a stalled frontal boundary along the Minnesota/Iowa border becomes the focus for more widespread rain through early Thursday morning. Not much has changed with the forecast for this round of precip with the I-90 corridor still the focus for 0.5-1"+ of rain by Thursday morning. Depending on how far north the front makes it, a few stronger storms are possible this evening, but the more likely scenario appears to be that we don't quite tap into the Tds of 60F+ and the severe weather threat stays in northern Iowa. Areas along and north of a line from roughly Wilmar through the Twin Cities and Eau Claire will see QPF drop off quickly with those north of St. Cloud lucky to see a trace to a few hundredths.

This will not be the case Thursday with widespread rain expected for much of the state as the surface low lifts into Nebraska/South Dakota. Guidance has had a notable shift northward with the highest QPF over the past 24 hours, and WPC has followed suit and shifted the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall so that it's nearly perfectly centered over the MPX CWA. Rain will be ongoing across the southern third of Minnesota Thursday morning and will gradually advance into central Minnesota and western Wisconsin by the afternoon. PWATs of 1.5"+ are expected to overspread the region by the afternoon and increase to 1.75" overnight with the LLJ. This will be the timeframe for the heaviest rainfall with 1-2" (with locally higher amounts) expected by Friday morning. Temperature wise, highs will be running quite a bit below normal to end the week. Friday looks especially chilly by mid June standards with areas of central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin barely managing to hit 60. Southern Minnesota looks to be quite a bit warmer with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Rain continues across western Wisconsin into Friday afternoon before we see a short stretch of dry weather just in time for the weekend. High pressure on Saturday will keep things dry, but still on the cooler side before temperatures finally rebound Sunday with the return of WAA ahead of our next rain chance late Sunday into Monday. This will be the first of several rounds of rain through next week. A series of embedded shortwaves will traverse the region with daily rain chances of 30-50% through the end of the period. While it's still too early to pin down any specifics, the second half of the month continues to look active.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration but it's the timing of any potential SHRA/RA that is the trickiest part of this TAF duration. KMPX radar has depicted echoes from around the Madison MN area to near Albert Lea MN, but there has also been a couple lightning strikes and public reports of SHRA around MKT so have added VCSH to RWF-MKT given the deep dry air that will make it problematic for precip to reach the ground. There are better signs for showers moving into the area, mainly south of I-94, for Wednesday afternoon so have maintained precip mention at that time, with best chances at RWF-MKT-MSP. Chances will be maintained going into Wednesday evening. Winds will gradually shift from W to N to NE through the period but speeds are expected to run 10kts or less. No TS/CB advertised this period, but a stray rumble of thunder or flash of lightning cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon- evening.

KMSP...No issues through mid-afternoon Wednesday, with no precipitation expected overnight and Wednesday morning. Chances increase Wednesday afternoon for a few passing showers across the MSP area but no CB/TS expected at this point. Winds 7kts or less may have some varying wind directions into the early morning hours then become N to NE overnight through Wednesday evening with speeds 10kts or less.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...Mainly VFR. RA/TSRA/MVFR likely late, chc IFR. Wind E 10 kts. FRI...RA/MVFR likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind E 10-15 kts. SAT...Mainly VFR. Slgt chc P.M. RA/MVFR. Wind E 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.