textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- After a cold start this morning a gradual warming trend will occur peaking in the 50s mid to late next week.

- Dry conditions to continue through late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Today through Wednesday... Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will be the story of our weather this weekend into the first half of the next week. This morning the high pressure is keeping skies clear and allowing for ample radiational cooling. This is bring temperatures down into the upper teens to lower 20s with calm winds. This is because the high pressure is more or less right overhead today. Mostly sunny conditions today, as expected with the high, will warm us up to near normal (now in the lower 40s for highs). This surface high will begin to slowly travel to the east coast this week. As the high moves to the east this will allow us to move more into a southerly flow, bringing in warmer air. For this reason Saturday night should be warmer across western Minnesota, but just as cold across western Wisconsin. The flow will continue to evolve as everything shifts east such that we warm slightly each day over the next week peaking mid week. Current guidance favors Wednesday as this peak with widespread highs in the 50s which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Thursday into Next Weekend... The previously mentioned peak occurs because a pattern shift is starting to look likely late week, possibly on Thursday. This would be with a shortwave bringing a chance for rain and some cooler air (most likely in central Minnesota). Looking farther out there is agreement within global models, ensemble systems, and machine learning guidance that a larger system could move across CONUS a week from now. Still a fair amount of spread on how this system evolves. Despite this spread this does look like it would stay warm enough for rain rather than snow at this point. Track wise surprisingly good agreement this far out indicating the Upper Midwest could see this rain. This has enough for NBM to have likely PoPs, which isn't common this far out. This track will also impact how temperatures end up as locations in this system's warm sector will see continued 50s with the cooler air in the cool sector. This has the NBM interquartile range a week from now for the Twin Cities, as an example, ranging from 47 to 61 for high temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Another quiet TAF period is upon us with SKC eventually becoming FEW/SCT250 at the end of the period. Winds will be light and variable to start, favoring 070-090 initially then shifting towards favoring 150-180 with speeds of 5-7kts during daylight tomorrow. VFR for all locations.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SSW 10-15G20kts. WED...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.