textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog this morning in Western Wisconsin, with below freezing temperatures this freezing fog could lead to slick spots on untreated roads and surfaces.

- Mild with slightly above normal temperatures and no significant precipitation chances over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today... Clear skies and calm winds over western Wisconsin this morning has allowed for a radiational fog to develop. With the cool temperatures this is a freezing fog which could lead to slick spots on untreated roads and surfaces this morning. This fog will burn off after sunrise as temperatures start to warm. Farther to the west over Minnesota cloud cover is keeping temperatures warmer and dense fog is not expected. Saturation is high enough that some fog could still form in the typical low lying spots and near bodies of water. Looking ahead to later today, a shortwave will pass to our north and provide for another chance for precipitation. Chances for accumulating precipitation will be best over northern Minnesota where there is better forcing. Despite the lack of forcing down here, there does look to be a deep enough layer of saturation that we could see some drizzle today into tonight. This is shown in high resolution models with saturation generally from around 800 mb down to the surface. With temperatures staying above freezing tonight no impacts are expected.

Thursday through Monday... Continued northwest flow aloft through this period. There are a few shortwaves riding along this flow, but little moisture present to provide any good chances for precipitation at this time. This is also reflected in global ensemble systems with little to no precipitation present among membership. These same systems also suggest continued mild temperatures in the 40s to maybe even a few lower 50s. With normal highs now around 40 this is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This makes sense as there is no snowpack yet over the Canadian Prairies, where our northwest flow is coming from.

Tuesday towards Thanksgiving... By the middle of next week it looks like there will be a change in the pattern just in time for the holiday travel period. A larger wave looks to move through the central CONUS in the global deterministic guidance. Still far enough out that many of the details are uncertain, which is reflected in spread among ensemble systems. While the precipition impact around the holiday remains uncertain, what is more certain is the colder air to follow this system and an end to our mild temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

MVFR to borderline IFR cigs are expected through the period. Things trend more IFR overnight with some fog/drizzle possible by early morning. Thursday morning looks to be much like this morning with improvement coming just beyond the end of the forecast period. Winds are southerly but will turn out of the west to northwest by tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Expecting cigs to lift to MVFR this afternoon before falling again late tonight. There's a chance for some drizzle early tomorrow morning, but uncertain whether or not it would impact vis, so have left it out for now. Conditions begin to improve by tomorrow afternoon, but have opted to remain MVFR through the end of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind W 5kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.