textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms through sunset across far-southern Minnesota.

- Thunderstorms likely Thursday evening ahead of a cold front. A few severe thunderstorms possible.

- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend, warmer next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A cold front continues to drop southwards through the Upper Midwest this afternoon with widespread thunderstorms initiating along the front from southeast Minnesota through central Wisconsin. So far, there has been little activity to speak of across south-central Minnesota, but the agitated cumulus field ahead of the front suggests we could still see an isolated storm or two pop before the afternoon is over. Can't rule out a stronger storm with gusty winds & hail should anything develop, but this threat looks to mainly be constrained to the Interstate 90 corridor & south.

Pleasant & dry Wednesday behind the cold front with seasonable temperatures around 80. Moisture then increases through the day on Thursday as southerly flow increases in response to a surface low approaching the region. Another round of scattered thunderstorms is expected ahead of the front during the late afternoon & evening, with current model timing suggesting the entire area will have at least some shot at rain/thunder. Similarly to today, some strong to severe thunderstorms look likely during the evening with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE present along with around 30 kts of deep shear. Rainfall amounts will be hit or miss, with an easy 1-2" of rain expected where thunderstorms occur but likely around 0.1" or less elsewhere.

After the low moves through the area Thursday night, quiet weather looks likely through the weekend with weak high pressure over the region. High temperatures will be right around seasonal norms for mid-August with highs around 80s, but we could see some chilly nights with lows potentially falling into the 40s in spots across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Temperatures trend slightly upward through next week as upper level ridging builds into the central CONUS. Ensemble guidance suggests another shortwave passes through the Upper Midwest during the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, brining another chance for scattered thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will be light and VRB through the overnight and morning hours with high level clouds increasing from the west. Patchy fog will be possible at EAU between 9-12z this morning. Light northwest winds prevail during the afternoon hours with thin cu development at 6-8 kft.

KMSP...VFR with light winds through the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 8-13 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.