textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry through Tuesday, then best chance of showers/thunderstorms comes late Tuesday night, followed by little- to-no chances for additional rain through the rest of the week.

- Hot/humid conditions to persist through Monday, then warm and less humid conditions through the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A fairly well-developed low pressure system will be imminently moving across the area through tonight, its west-to-east warm front bisecting MN/WI and its trailing cold front sagging across SD into WY. Warm air advection, along with moisture advection, is occurring along and south of the front, now evident with wind shifts to the SE and S over far southern MN and dewpoints creeping into the lower 70s. North of the front, temperatures remain in the 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. This front may wobble slightly north/south thru this evening but generally slide eastward as the low moves into west-central MN later this evening then pushes east to the TC Metro by around sunrise Monday morning. If any precip occurs for the rest of today thru overnight tonight, it'll be very light and north of I-94. The cold front will make enough progression eastward tonight into tomorrow such that much of the humidity will be swept eastward, but still hanging on in far eastern MN (including the TC metro) into western WI tomorrow. So while much of the WFO MPX coverage area, especially those that escaped cloud cover, experienced heat index values into the low-mid 90s today, most locales in MN will have peak index values under 90 on Monday while western WI will have peak heat index values in the 90s.

The lower dewpoints spreading eastward across MN and WI will remain in place through most of the week. Thus, despite temperatures ranging through the 80s all week, dewpoints will generally remain from the upper 50s to upper 60s, making heat index values no more than 1-2 degrees over actual temperatures from Tuesday onward for the entirety of the WFO MPX coverage area.

As for precipitation, high pressure will fill in behind the current progressive frontal system, making for dry weather for tonight through Tuesday. The next system ejects out of the Plains late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, making early Wednesday morning the best chance for fairly widespread precipitation across the WFO MPX coverage area. A few thunderstorms are possible but with the frontal boundary of the system remaining to the south of MN/WI, strong-severe thunderstorms are not expected. The boundary will generally remain stalled to the south of our coverage area, keeping any appreciable precipitation away but a few weak shortwaves mid-to- late week may squeeze out a few hundredths here and there.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Few showers possible in the vicinity of EAU in the near term, otherwise we anticipate a dry 00z period at local terminals. Passage of a northward surging frontal boundary will result in a shift from ESE to SSE flow early in the period (Wind shift had already occurred at MKT & MSP and should occur at RWF, RNH, & EAU over the next few hours). Winds become light and variable overnight as a weak sfc low and associated cold front move eastward across the forecast area. Result will be a wind shift out of the WNW after daybreak Monday. Could see pockets of fog develop overnight across central MN and portions of western WI. Guidance was most aggressive in visibility reductions at STC, so have a TEMPO for IFR visibility between 9-12z.

KMSP...Southerly wind shift has occurred as of TAF issuance time. Winds will remain out of the south into the night and will kick of the WNW between 5-10kts Monday morning. VFR through the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SW to W 5 kts. WED...Early AM TSRA/MVFR then VFR. Wind E 5 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.