textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy drizzle and fog overnight, but surface temperatures will remain above freezing so no impacts from icing expected.

- Mild with slightly above normal temperatures and no significant precipitation chances into early next week.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday and last through the Thanksgiving Weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today and Tonight...Visible satellite imagery together with surface obs showed cloudy skies across the region, with a few lower visibilities due to some lingering fog and light mist. This trend will continue overnight as a weak pressure trough moves across the region, so have continued with a chance for drizzle and fog overnight as the forecast soundings show low level saturation and weak lift. Fortunately surface temperatures will be in the mid-30s, so not anticipating any impacts from icing.

Thursday through Sunday...On Thursday, winds will become northwest as the surface trough passes through, which will clearing skies from west to east, and perhaps a few peeks of sun by Thursday evening. High pressure will settle in, and for the most part remain in control as the Upper Midwest is sandwiched between the northern stream storm track across Canada, and a cutoff slow over the desert southwest. This will keep the region dry and mild through early next week.

Monday through the Thanksgiving Weekend...Looking ahead, on Monday the cutoff low will slowly migrate eastward, while a potent shortwave trough moves over the Pacific Northwest. How these two features interact will determine the weather across the Upper Midwest. For example, if the southern stream upper level low kicks out farther north and slower, that will lead to a more northerly track for the shortwave trough, and any snow associated with it will fall across Canada. If that shortwave trough is faster and farther south, then it could dig across the Upper Midwest, bringing cold air and accumulating snow across the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning.

Needless to day, anytime a cutoff low is involved, the forecast confidence decreases. So for that reason, not leaning towards any one solution at this point with regards to chances of snow. One thing that is more certain is the idea that cold air will follow for the middle of next week, and should last through the weekend. For now, we're looking at highs in the upper 20s to low 30s, with lows in the teens or single digits. So it will be cold, but as of now, not expecting it to be hazardous.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 501 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Not much change this evening with stubborn low clouds and some patchy drizzle keeping conditions MVFR/IFR. Expecting IFR/LIFR cigs and vis later on this evening through the overnight hours with more fog/drizzle. Things begin to trend back towards MVFR by tomorrow morning, but the majority of terminals will not make it to VFR territory until beyond the end of this TAF period. Winds remain at 10kts or less and will slowly turn northwesterly into tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Still uncertain if KMSP will see any of the fog/drizzle vis reductions overnight, but have left it out since it seems more likely further north and east. Cigs should come back up above 020 by mid afternoon with VFR conditions finally back for the very end of the forecast period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind W 5kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.