textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy winds drop back this evening, cool temperatures remain with lows falling below freezing.

- Messy Spring system round 1 arrives tomorrow afternoon through Thursday. Wet, slushy snow is expected on the northern/western side with rain on the south/southeastern side, with a transition area in between expected to see sleet transition to freezing rain and finally to rain by Thursday afternoon. Travel impacts are likely in areas impacted by snow and the wintry mix.

- Messy Spring system round 2 arrives Friday morning and lingers through most of Saturday. This round is expected to be either rain or snow with a lower chance for sleet/freezing rain, however uncertainty on where the rain/snow line ends up is still high.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A rather quiet day is unfolding with some breezy northerly winds and mixed cloud cover, but otherwise pleasant weather with temperatures near normal for end of March in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s. Both dew points and temperatures will fall overnight as our northerly flow continues through the overnight until the leading edge of the incoming messy spring system arrives tomorrow morning, with the degree of both temperature and dew point cooling being a key factor in how the onset of precipitation behaves tomorrow. Cloud cover should remain scattered overnight with mainly mid to high level clouds, and the degree of cloud cover will also have a direct impact on the temperatures.

Why is the cloud cover and by proxy temperatures/dew point forecast leading into tomorrow so important? First, a brief explanation as to what Wet Bulb Temperature is: Wet Bulb Temperature is defined as the lowest possible temperature achieved solely through evaporation. For those who remember their science classes, evaporation is a state of matter change from liquid to gas which requires energy to perform, referred to as the latent heat of vaporization. The reason this is important in regards to the system arriving Wednesday is twofold; lower to mid level warm air advection on the eastern side of the incoming trough will produce a warm nose along the baroclinic zone ahead of the developing low pressure system, and lower level dry air will be in place due to dew points dropping tonight that will need to be saturated before precipitation will be able to reach the surface tomorrow. The competing forces of the warm nose and latent cooling via evaporation to saturate our dry ground layer will result in a thermal profile that will be changing as time progresses, which will also make the precipitation type forecast difficult where these two forces are competing the most, which is directly along the baroclinic zone. To sum this up, warm air advection will warm the air from roughly 900-700mb, with latent cooling via evaporation at the onset of the event cooling the air beneath this layer all the way to the surface. The location of the baroclinic zone will be the focal point of the forecast, with areas to the north/northwest of this region seeing almost exclusively wet slushy snow, while those along will see a mix of p-types with sleet becoming freezing rain becoming rain as the profile changes throughout the day Thursday, and finally areas to the south/southeast of this area seeing mostly rain where warmer overall temperatures result in less evaporative cooling to saturate the boundary layer. The location of the baroclinic zone varies from model to model, and even a 20-30 mile shift in location could have significant local impacts due to different p-type amounts over time. The most likely location of the baroclinic zone via the consensus of the various models/ensembles right now seems to be a line stretching from roughly Yellow Medicine County in western MN to the northern metro and towards Ladysmith in western WI, with wobbles expected until the system actually arrives.

All of what was mentioned previous is to say, we have high confidence that we will have travel impacts for a large portion of the area either due to wet slushy snow or a mixture of sleet, freezing rain leading to icing, and eventually rain. The splitting up of the various precipitation types for each individual location is the uncertainty due to the strength/location of the warm nose and the competing physical factors of the evaporative cooling versus warm air advection. Highest snow amounts are expected for our area within central Minnesota on the order of 4-6 inches of slushy snow, decreasing to the southeast due to the wintry mix and rain. Ice accumulations are trickier to pinpoint, with warm ground temperatures melting initial contact as well as figuring out how much falls as sleet versus freezing rain. Due to these factors, the Winter Weather Advisory covering Minnesota is for both the slushy snow and icing impacts, with the Winter Storm Watch in WI due to the later arrival time and hopefully consistent information from observations as the start of the event unfolds.

The second round arriving Friday afternoon through Saturday is a bit simpler from a physics perspective as the thermal profile looks to be a bit easier to digest with a quicker transition from rain to snow as the profile cools with a lower probability of wintry mixed precipitation. This is primarily due to the location of the upper level trough and developing surface low which is placed farther west/northwest compared to the earlier system, as well as a lack of dry air to overcome initially which takes evaporative cooling out of the equation. The initial onset on Friday looks to be rain with a transition to snow as the system rotates through overnight and the layer cools, becoming all snow on Saturday with more wet/slushy consistency. Snow wraps up later in the day and into early Sunday as both the trough and surface low eject towards the northern Great Lakes as we quickly lose both lift and saturation. Snow accumulations once again look most likely in central Minnesota with peak amounts from 4-6 inches and lower amounts to the south, however compared to round 1 more of the area will have at least an inch or two to speak of before all is said and done. Temperatures remain below freezing through Sunday night but warm back into the 40s on Monday and even into the low 50s on Tuesday, so any accumulations lingering should begin to melt away quickly as we head into the later part of the period next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Cloud cover will increase while cigs gradually fall starting early this morning, with overcast skies by Wednesday afternoon and low-end VFR by 00Z Thursday. MN terminals' cigs will fall to MVFR Wednesday evening, eventually bottoming out at IFR during Wednesday night. WI terminals will be slightly delayed falling to MVFR cigs just prior to TAF period end. The increase in cloud cover will be in response to our next system arriving. Precip will begin over MN around or just after 00Z Thursday. Snow is more likely across central MN while rain will be more dominant at MKT. In between, sleet and potentially freezing rain will be the dominant precip types as we get closer to midnight Thursday. This is especially true across southeastern MN and into western WI. Northeasterly winds will turn easterly after sunrise steadily increasing into Wednesday evening with sustained values near 15 knots and gusts to 20-25 knots.

KMSP...Northeasterly winds of 8-10 knots are expected until 16Z before easterly winds prevail through most of Wednesday night. Gusts will reach 20-25 knots during Wednesday night. Expecting MVFR after 02Z Thursday with -RA starting, with conditions falling to IFR 05Z as cigs fall to near 900 feet. Sleet looks likely after midnight Thursday with periods of freezing rain through the end of the TAF period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/-RASN likely, chc IFR/-SNPL. Wind NE 10-15G25kts. FRI...MVFR/-RASN, chc IFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. SAT...MVFR/-RASN, chc IFR/RA. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Stearns- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Thursday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota- Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey- Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright. WI...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk- Rusk-St. Croix.