textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Our stretch of calm weather comes to an end tonight into tomorrow.

- A more active period looks to continue into next week with multiple low confidence chances for more rain.

- Temperatures generally above normal, with highs in the 80s, over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Today and Tomorrow... Another morning with clear skies and ample cooling. This will allow for more fog formation again this morning, which will once again lift quickly after sunrise as temperatures warm. There could be some isolated dense fog in low lying areas and near bodies of water, but overall widespread dense fog is not expected. Overall a very similar setup to yesterday morning, so expecting a similar result. The high pressure that has given us this stretch of weather will be moving out today. Our next system will begin to move in from west to east. During the day this will be little more than gradually increasing clouds. A subtle mid level shortwave combined with the advection of warmer and more moist air will provide the chance for rain tonight into tomorrow. Forecast soundings continue to show the chance for some isolated thunderstorms within this rain, but the chances for strong to severe storms remain low. The amount of instability and lapse rates are just not supportive of severe convection and SPC has also maintained a general thunder with the marginal risk off over the Dakotas. Today will be slightly warmer with highs in the 80s owing the the WAA. Tomorrow will be a little cooler, highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with the rain moving through providing for increased cloud cover.

Sunday into next week... This still looks to be a progressive pattern with multiple waves moving into the Upper Midwest. As said in past discussions there remains a lot of spread within guidance and especially ensemble members. The only part of the forecast with clustering is the Friday night into Saturday rain, after that it remains very dispersive. What is more confident are warmer than normal temperatures. Sunday into Monday look to see highs well above normal in the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Isolated instances of MVFR to IFR due to patchy fog will be possible through 13z at KMKT, KAXN, KRNH, and KEAU. Winds will be light at 5-10 knots through the day, becoming south to southwesterly. Sky coverage will slowly increase as well, becoming BKN at 15-25 kft by this afternoon and evening.

PROB30s for -TSRA has been introduced for all Minnesota terminals, starting at 03z out west and progressing eastward through the evening and overnight. Exact timing will likely be adjusted at future TAF issuances, but for now expect shower/storm activity to increase late this evening through tomorrow morning.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected through the day with light winds at 5-10 knots and sky increasing in high level cloud coverage. PROB30 for -TSRA has been introduced this TAF cycle. At the moment, 11-14z timing will likely need to be adjusted as trends continue to show shower/storm activity later.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Chc AM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15G20kts. SUN...VFR. SChc -TSRA. Wind S 8-13kts. MON...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.