textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog in the morning.

- Stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Friday.

- Additional chances for showers/thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Regional radar imagery highlights our thunderstorms from yesterday evening are now a decaying MCS over E WI and W MI this morning. Surface observations reveal temperatures in the 40s and 50s with light and variable winds. This combined with the brief period of clear skies behind the frontal passage has led to the formation of areas of dense fog and low stratus across western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. The area of dense fog will likely spread east across portions of central and western MN overnight. Fog will be slow to erode this morning, but should improve by lunch. On the other hand, cloud cover will stick around much of the day. Temperatures will likely end up in the 60s with a chance of 70 along I-90. Not bad for mid-April but not exactly a great day to spend outdoors. Precipitation chances will be restricted to the I-90 corridor in MN and along/south of I-94 in W WI. Twin Cities and locations N/W will remain dry. Another shortwave will track northeast from the Plains on Wednesday. This will bring another round of showers across the area. Thunderstorm threat should remain south and east of MN and western WI. Highs top out in the 60s.

As that wave departs, another system developing over the Plains will begin to push east on Thursday. Speaking of Thursday, current guidance supports a rather nice day. Skies should clear out behind Wednesday's system and warm air advection ramps up ahead of the incoming Plains low. The southerly flow should help temperatures warm back into the mid 70s and looks like the nicest day of the forecast period. On Friday, moisture continues to return across the area as the next system moves through. A rather potent cold front is forecast with this system and will likely lead to another round of thunderstorms Friday afternoon. There is good model consistency with this system. If we take a look at the forecast soundings in the warm sector reveal another impressive early season environment with very steep lapse rates (8.0 to 9.0C/km), moderate instability, and favorable shear profiles. The cold front and it's associated synoptic forcing should be able to overcome the EML capping with convective initiation Friday afternoon. Storm mode should quickly turn linear before tracking east. This squall line would likely pose a severe risk Friday afternoon and early evening. Additionally, CSU ML probabilities would support a severe threat as well.

The weekend will turn colder behind the front with highs in the 40s. The Saturday potential wintry mix/snow/slop looks less likely than it did 24 hours ago, notably the 00Z ECMWF & AIFS guidance no longer advertise the snow chance as they're weaker and further north with the system, but interestingly enough the GFS/GEM/ICON now support a brief period of snow. So what does this mean for your weekend forecast? It'll be colder with a chance of some light precipitation on Saturday. Sunday is dry, but remains chilly. It should be a good weekend to stay inside and finish up any projects before the warmer weather arrives for good.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Main concern overnight will be another round of IFR fog that will develop across the area. All terminals will likely see either fog or low stratus develop given the recent rainfall and clearing skies behind yesterday's thunderstorms. LAMP guidance remains most aggressive with visibility reductions across eastern MN/western WI. I've opted to lean on BUFKIT forecast soundings for a slightly less pessimistic look. Low stratus will slowly erode Tuesday AM with most sites returning to VFR by early afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight will turn northwesterly after daybreak between 5-10kts.

KMSP...Guidance continues to point towards a window of IFR fog overnight. Fog and low stratus will erode by late morning and return to VFR with northwesterly flow by Tuesday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NE 5kts. THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 5-10kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.