textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow continues to spread east this afternoon. Several inches of snow accumulation are possible in southern MN with lower amounts to the north.

- Cold to end the weekend with highs only in the single digits in MN on Sunday.

- Multiple chances for snow the first half of next week, with the most significant being Tuesday into Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Tonight...Light snow is falling across portions of central Minnesota, including at our office in Chanhassen, with heavier rates across southwest Minnesota into Iowa. The latest surface analysis places the low somewhere over the central SD/NE border, with hi- res models tracking it down towards the IA/MO border. This keeps the heaviest rates and highest totals well into Iowa, though a solid few inches remain on the table for southern Minnesota. A line from Canby towards Mankato can expect around 1 to 3 inches, while locations near I-90 could reach up to 3 to 5 inches. Locally higher amounts to around 6 inches are possible south of I-90, though the trend has been for the swath of heaviest snow to push farther south into Iowa. Amounts decrease from around an inch to a dusting north of the current Winter Weather Advisory. Snow will taper off from west to east this evening in western MN, and late tonight in southeast MN and western WI.

Sunday through Monday...Temperatures drop behind the Clipper, with widespread lows below zero for western and central Minnesota. The extent to which we cool could be limited by how much clearing we get at night with some scattered low clouds potentially hanging around past midnight. The more we clear, the more we will cool down. That said, surface high pressure will sprawl over the region which should support more sinking air. One small change with the forecast is an additional chance for an area of light snow Sunday night into Monday morning. Forecast soundings highlight low level WAA on the backside of the high as southerly winds flow over cooler air near the boundary layer. This could provide enough lift and moisture to create a scenario for a few extra tenths of an inch to wake up to Monday morning. Our current thinking best aligns with the 15z RAP solution, giving the best chance somewhere across west-central Minnesota into central Minnesota.

Our Clipper train continues into next week, with a chance again for light snow Monday night. The latest NBM paints the swath of heaviest totals (around 1-2") across northeast MN into northern WI. There is pretty solid agreement across the long range ensembles for this track, and we have no reason to go against this solution. Amounts around an inch or so will be possible for areas north of the I-94 corridor, with only a dusting to a half inch expected along and south of that line. Temperatures do rebound on Monday with the low tracking north of our area, shifting winds out of the south.

Tuesday through Saturday...Southerly winds continue ahead of our next Clipper Tuesday, allowing most of the region to climb near or above freezing during the day. An anomalously strong low pressure system is forecast to develop out of the Canadian Rockies and progress southeast through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. The 12z suite of deterministic global guidance generally produces a deeper low than ensembles, with the American, Euro, and Canadian all projecting a sub-990mb low as it tracks through Minnesota and Wisconsin. The exact path it takes will determine where the heaviest band of snow will fall. For what it is worth, the Euro AIFS remains the most southerly solution (with a stripe of the highest totals right along the I-94 corridor), with the rest of guidance not much farther north of I-94. One thing to keep an eye on will be how far south the Monday night wave digs, as it could indicate a better idea of how far south the Tuesday wave will be able to extend. In terms of totals, this system has the best chance to produce plowable (and potentially significant) snow compared to other systems over the next week. PWAT values will be near 200% of normal thanks to the atmospheric river off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, and there will be plenty of forcing associated with the deepening low. One caveat that could make the forecast tricky will be precipitation types, with temperatures creeping near or above freezing. Areas on the southern side of the low will have the best chance of seeing rain or a wintry mix.

Following the Tuesday system, we will gradually cool down each day through the end of the week, reaching widespread lows below zero by Saturday morning. We remain in the northwest flow pattern aloft, meaning there will be additional chances for snow with any kinks that develop within the flow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The heaviest snow will stay to the south of the terminals. RWF has seen the greatest impacts and will be the site with the greatest impacts. MKT could see some MVFR for a while, but the greatest impacts will be south of the terminal. Behind the snow light and variable winds with VFR CIGS.

KMSP...Outside of some continued VFR flurries, no impacts expected. VFR and light winds through the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...MVFR cigs. Chc -SN. Wind S 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with -RASN. Wind S 10-15 kts. WED...MVFR/IFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood- Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. WI...None.