textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid today and tomorrow with heat index values up around 90.

- Above normal temperatures with highs in the 80s to continue for the first week of September.

- Isolated showers/storms today with the next chance coming late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Today and Tonight... Today's weather will be driven by warm air advection. First and most obvious warm and moist air is moving in brining us higher temperatures and dew points. This will bring heat index values into the 90s with the higher values south (southern MN/west central WI) and lower north (central MN/northwest WI). This warm air advection will also occur along a warm front and the lift from this front will provide some chances for storm development. The challenge for CI will be overcoming the cap we have in place this morning. So far this cap has held and no development has been noted. For anything that does occur this morning CI will need to occur over the Dakotas and survive into Minnesota. We do have strong elevated instability, so elevated storms could maintain themselves if they have a deep enough updraft. This afternoon and evening daytime heating should help to break this cap, but the front will lift north such that chances will be mainly in central and northern Minnesota. The main severe chance will be tied more to the cold front moving across the Dakotas. So severe will be tied to storms that initiate to the west and track into Minnesota overnight. How linear this storms go will play a big part in determining the risk type. More linear being more wind and more discrete favoring hail. SPC has also noted a low tornado chance tied to the area along the warm front.

Monday and Tuesday... The cold front will pass through Minnesota on Monday providing some relief from the moisture. This will keep the higher dew points and therefore the heat index values above 90 in western Wisconsin. With clearer skies temperatures won't be much cooler, if at all, in Minnesota but the lower dew points will be noticeable. These lower dew points should spread into Wisconsin on Tuesday expanding the relief.

Tuesday night into Wednesday... Another shortwave trough moving across the plains will provide our next chance for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thankfully this looks more like what we saw on Saturday morning with a more widespread light rain rather than the more isolated nature of what is forecast for today. Looking at forecast soundings the greatest challenge will be low level dry air. This means it will take a while before rain starts to reach the surface. This will also be a limiting factor in strong storms, as it will greatly limit instability. Looking towards ensemble systems there is actually good agreement for this far out, which is why we are already seeing higher PoPs in the NBM. Just more of a timing displacement right now with the GEFS/GEPS earlier than the ENS.

Rest of the Week... Ensembles get much more dispersive after Wednesday, but continue to show activity. This remains the same long term forecast we have had for much of the past week with a more active and warm pattern. This keep highs in the 80s with a low confidence of which days will see rain until at least the mid range forecast (about 3 days out).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

IFR ceilings have spread across parts of central Minnesota this morning. These cloud decks will lift this morning as we begin to warm and those levels become less saturated. Some MVFR fog has also been observed and will lift at similar times for the same reason. Overall winds remain light today from a southeasterly direction. Rain chances have generally been drying up this morning and are not expected to be an aviation impact. Some rain chance tonight for EAU, but not high enough yet for TAF inclusion.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON PM...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind variable 5 kts. WED...VFR. Wind N 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.