textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect along & north of I-94 for freezing drizzle. Potential for a glaze of ice to a few hundredths that could impact holiday travel.

- Gloomy weather continues with periods of fog, drizzle, and freezing drizzle through Christmas Day.

- Temperatures remain warm through Saturday, with an Arctic cold front resulting in a quick drop to below normal temperatures Sunday and Monday.

- Blustery northwest winds are likely Saturday night into Sunday as the cold front moves through.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

A foggy & gloomy Christmas day is on tap across much of the region. A dense fog has already spread across much of southern Minnesota that has prompted a slight expansion in the Dense Fog Advisory. Those headed out this morning may wish that you had a reindeer with a glowing red nose to help guide you safely to your destination. Some locations are experiencing freezing fog with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s - this could lead to areas of slick travel in addition to limited visibility. Please proceed with caution if you must travel. While it wasn't pretty - we'll likely get our "official" white Christmas at 12Z observation this morning. Temperatures remain below freezing overnight and snow depths should be at or above the 1" threshold.

Our dense fog advisory will expire at 9 am this morning but it'll remain a gloomy Christmas day. Low stratus currently across S MN will build back northward into C & W MN and W WI by mid to late morning. Forecast soundings continue to highlight a saturated layer beneath the lowest few thousand feet and support period of drizzle this afternoon & evening. Temperatures will be key to whether a location observes regular drizzle or freezing drizzle. Current thoughts are that a brief period of freezing drizzle is possible for locations in the metro, but air temperatures quickly warm above freezing. This could lead to some slick travel - especially locations along & north of I-694 in the metro. Outside of the Twin Cities metro: north of I-94 will see temperatures warm slower & stay below freezing for longer than locations to the south. This will support legitimate icing potential. These locations can expect a glaze of ice up to a tenth of an inch of ice in the worst case scenarios. Most locations end up closer to the glaze with a few hundredths of ice build up. We have coordinated with our neighboring WFOs to issue a Winter Weather Advisory that'll begin late afternoon in W/C MN & this evening in W WI. The advisory will continue through Friday morning. Reminder that untreated surfaces will likely see a glaze of ice that is enough to impact local holiday travel plans. The best signal for drizzle will be later this evening through early Friday morning.

Temperatures will slowly warm throughout the next 24 hours. Precipitation ends by daybreak as the clipper system responsible moves into the southern Great Lakes. Friday & Saturday look very warm by late December standards. Highs will be in the lower 40s with low temperatures in around freezing Friday & Saturday night. While we dry out, it'll remain gloomy with mostly cloudy skies through the weekend. Sunday's high temperature will occur early Sunday morning as a potent Arctic front will move through Sunday morning & usher in a return to familiar Upper Midwest Winter temperatures. Temperatures fall quickly during the day Sunday with lows near zero early Monday morning. Northwest winds will be 15 to 25 mph sustained with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Some models have wind gusts ~5 to 10 mph stronger than current NBM forecast. This may require a future Wind Advisory for Sunday.Apparent temperatures will be in the 10 to 20F below zero Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon, which will be a festive reminder that it is still Winter in the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will moderate towards normal values to end the year. Highs will be in the upper 10s to low 20s with lows in the single digits to low 10s. This is good news for those of us who participate in outdoor Winter activities for now. The lack of snow pack will limit how cold any future cold snaps will get - until we regain new snow - something that'll wait until the new year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

The most impacted terminal this morning is RWF which is locked in dense fog along with much of the rest of southern Minnesota. Overall, low ceilings will spread north later this morning and the lower atmosphere will continue to moisten into the afternoon. As the lower atmosphere becomes saturated, drizzle will begin. This drizzle will start to become freezing drizzle tonight across parts of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin where surface temperatures will be cooler. A more widespread impact during this timeframe will be IFR to LIFR ceilings. These conditions will allow CIGS and drizzle will continue into Friday. So all together a long period of IFR or LIFR is expected for our Christmas present this year.

KMSP...VFR to start the day with the fog not far away as LVN has been locked into dense fog all morning. A drop to IFR by this afternoon with drizzle starting by this evening. Temperatures will be close to freezing, but should remain warm enough that freezing drizzle is not expected at this time. Temperatures will be near freezing though so some cooler surfaces could see light ice accumulation.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI PM...IFR. Wind WNW 5 kts. SAT...MVFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts bcmg NW 10-15G25 kts late. SUN...MVFR. Chc IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15-20G35 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Friday for Benton-Douglas-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne- Stearns-Todd. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for Anoka-Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Washington. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Blue Earth- Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet- Redwood-Rice-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.