textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Well-above normal temperatures Tuesday with highs near 80, then temperatures fall back to more seasonable levels through the rest of the week.

- Other than a few showers late this afternoon into this evening for central MN into northwest WI, dry conditions are expected area-wide into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Temperatures have rebounded nicely thus far today after this morning's rather chilly lows down into the 30s area-wide under extensive 1030mb high pressure from western Ontario province south to the Missouri River Valley. This has allowed for mostly sunny skies and temperatures rising into the lower 60s to lower 70s. Warm air advection will continue tonight as a warm front approaches from the Dakotas and will cross MN/WI overnight. Despite plenty of low level dry air in place, enough forcing with meager moisture convergence ahead of the warm front may be enough to squeeze out a few rain showers over central MN into northwest WI this evening.

Temperatures will surge to well-above normal levels on Tuesday with highs a couple/few degrees either side of 80 throughout the WFO MPX coverage area. Breezy/gusty conditions are also expected as strong LLJ aloft overnight will blend down to the surface due to deep mixing profiles expected tomorrow. The associated cold front will move across the region late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening, bringing an end to the late summer-like conditions and allowing more seasonable temperatures to return for the remainder of the week. Highs will remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s throughout the week, outside of a small bump on Saturday as another warm sector moves through the region, followed by another cold front for Sunday.

After this evening, no precipitation is expected across the coverage area until possibly late Sunday into Monday with the weekend cold front.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Mid level clouds will exit to the east this evening, then just some passing high clouds Tuesday. South winds will remain steady tonight, then shift gradually westward Tuesday afternoon with some gusts possible ahead of a front.

KMSP...A period of wind shear overnight, then southwest surface gusts develop as mixing begins after sunrise.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts becoming SE.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.