textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected for the first half of this today.

- Heat and humidity returns for the second half of the weekend into the start of September with low PoP chances throughout the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Current upper-level water vapor imagery showing troughing over New Brunswick, Canada departing northeast, while broad troughing enters the PacNorthwest. Saddled in between these two features is a riding pattern that extends from the Intermountain-West over to the Great Lakes region. Below this ridging pattern, a shortwave was located over the MN and Dakotas border that will progress to the east southeast today. Mid-level warm advection combined with an intensifying 40-50kt low level jet will aid in additional moisture transport into the northern plains. This has resulted in rainfall becoming more widespread since 1 AM this morning across much of western Minnesota and will continue east over the next several hours. A few rumbles of thunder could be common, especially across western MN where an axis of mixed layer instability between 500-1000 J/k exists. Much of this rainfall should be captured during the first half of today. Although most areas can expect the rainfall to wrap up by 10 AM this morning, western Wisconsin will lag closer to noon before most rain has passed on. Most areas have a favorable shot at picking up 0.25" of rainfall with localized areas receiving closer to 0.75". Once the rain clears, sky coverage will vary depending on location across MN/WI today. For those south and west of I-94 have a stronger shot at seeing partly cloudy skies whereas elsewhere can expect broken sunshine by this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will also reflect where sunshine is more prevalent, i.e southwest MN reaching the mid to upper 80s, eastern MN near 80, western WI, mid to low 70s.

After today, the weather pattern becomes more consistent with zonal flow aloft, warmer temperatures, and daily rainfall chances. On Sunday, another subtle wave moves across central MN Sunday morning featuring a broad surface low that will bring another chance for showers and potentially a strong storm Sunday afternoon. Latest forecast guidance favor more of central MN track this time but given some inconsistencies on storm coverage, was reluctant to go astray from current NBM PoPs. Key takeaway here is that most areas are better suited to remain dry versus seeing rain. As for temps, Sunday and Monday will feel the most humid with dew points in the low 70s and highs in the upper-80s across southern MN. As the week continues, dew points will improve slightly but highs will stay in the 80s with lows in 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Rain chances will spread across the region this morning. At issuance time showers are in the vicinity of RWF, but low level dry air has prevented rain from reaching the surface. Coverage of the rain should increase during the early morning hours. Some thunderstorms could still occur aided by a LLJ with chances highest across western MN and decreasing as you head east. Winds will generally be from a south to southeasterly direction. Ceilings will be mainly VFR, but some periods of MVFR during the rain will be possible. Some gusts of 20 knots or greater could occur in thunderstorms.

KMSP...Slightly later start time, but overall same picture as the 00Z TAFs. Keeping with the PROB30 chances for now and will see the best chance occur right around 12Z TAF issuance.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. SChc -TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.