textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow ends from west to east this morning with minor additional accumulation.

- A mixture of rain and snow is expected Thursday and Thursday night with generally an inch or less of accumulation.

- Strong and gusty winds are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Gusts over 50 mph are likely across western Minnesota, with 40-50 mph expected elsewhere.

- Snow, potentially heavy, still looks likely this weekend. Low confidence still on where the heaviest snow may fall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 406 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a wavy surface frontal boundary from CA/NV across the Rockies to the TX/OK Panhandle area then extending northeast across the mid- Mississippi River Valley Region into the Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic regions. Multiple low pressure centers are found along the boundary. A secondary low over far western Ontario province features a cold front dragging SW over northern MN/ND. Aloft, a longwave trough extends southward over the Northern-Central Plains with modest ridging over the western CONUS. In addition, off the PacNW coast, a compact upper low is progged to come onshore later today.

KMPX radar indicates that the overnight swath of snow is slowly but sure shrinking in coverage area. Some light additional accumulation is still expected but by-and-large, the bulk of widespread accumulation is done for this event with only up to about an inch still possible through sunrise. The extended front will shift off to the east while the system to the north drops farther into MN and washes out, allowing for skies to partially clear by midday. Weak north-south oriented high pressure will then prevail tonight through Thursday morning across the area, helping keep cool temperatures in place.

The next system to impact the area comes late Thursday through Friday, associated with the aforementioned low currently off the PacNW coast. The surface reflection will take the form of a quickly- developing low pressure center that will travel east, straddling the international border along its path. Latest model consensus has the track of this system a bit more northerly, which will mean more rain for our coverage area than snow. Moisture is quite sufficient with this system, mainly as Pacific moisture being dragged all the way to the Upper Midwest. QPF will range from 0.05"-0.20" south of I-94 and from 0.25"-0.50" north of I-94. The precip looks to start out as light snow late Thursday morning but will change over to rain for much of the WFO MPX coverage area Thursday afternoon-evening before changing back to light snow Thursday night prior to ending. Most locations will have snow accumulations under an inch, though portions of western WI may see 1-2".

As the system becomes deeper and more compact, with pressure dropping to around 990mb as it pushes into the Great Lakes, a much tightened pressure gradient on its western flank with high pressure on the heels of this system as it departs will produce much stronger winds for Friday. Sustained wind speeds look to increase to the 25- 35mph range with gusts upwards of 45-55mph. Still some uncertainty as to just how strong winds will get, thus we have held off any wind headlines at this point, but this situation will be monitored in collab with surrounding offices to determine if any High Wind Watch, or potentially any wind/winter weather combo headlines, are needed.

As for the weekend system, it still garners plenty of attention as a potentially potent Colorado-origin system which will be enhanced by a digging longwave trough over central NOAM. The system will track to the south of MN/WI, putting the Upper Midwest in the region of significant snowfall for late Saturday into Sunday. Generally speaking, southern MN still looks to receive the highest snowfall amounts but there has been and still is some wobbling in the speed of the system and amount of moisture associated with it, thus resulting in still fairly sizable ranges in snowfall totals.

Once this system moves out of the area, a strong surge of colder air will move into the Upper Midwest, bringing below normal temperatures for the mid-March period which could last until the calendar says it's spring.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Aside from broken MVFR cigs over EAU (which will quickly move east over the next hour), VFR conditions are expected at all terminals the entire period. Scattered mid-level clouds are expected this evening but will push southeast overnight. However, as our next system approaches from the west, clouds will increase to broken/overcast while bases fall to 6000-8000 feet over western MN. Any rain or snow should hold off until after the period. Northwesterly winds will gust to near 20 knots this afternoon but slow to near or under 5 knots this evening. Winds will turn south-southeasterly from west to east by sunrise Thursday while speeds increase. Gusts will reach 20-25 knot across MN by noon Thursday.

KMSP...North-northwesterly winds will slow to near 5 knots by early Thursday morning, turning south-southeasterly after sunrise Thursday. Winds will increase Thursday afternoon with gusts around 25 knots. Did add a PROB30 from 20-22Z Thursday for a chance of rain with rain and low-end VFR becoming more likely by Thursday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW 15-25G35 kts. SAT...MVFR ceilings likely. Chc day -SN, likely night -SN. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SUN...MVFR/-SN likely, IFR possible. Wind NE 15G25kts becoming NW.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.