textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog tonight through tomorrow morning.

- Widespread rain showers Friday transitions over to a wintry mix of rain, snow, & potentially freezing rain Saturday.

- Thunderstorms likely Friday across southern Minnesota

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Dense fog this morning eventually lifted to a stubborn layer of stratus that has been slow to dissipate this afternoon. Temperatures have been a few degrees cooler than forecast as a result of the cloud cover, but we're still seeing widespread highs in the 50s where the Sun is out & mid to upper 40s under the clouds. Another night of dense fog looks likely where skies remain clear overnight, but the current lingering stratus makes it uncertain where that fog threat will be highest. Latest high-res model guidance indicated central Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin have the best chances for fog, while southern Minnesota remains clear, although our fog cover this morning ended up much more widespread than the guidance suggested yesterday afternoon. We will most likely need another Dense Fog Advisory for at least portions of the area overnight, but will wait a few more hours into this evening to further analyze the cloud clearing trends. Fog will linger through mid to late morning Thursday, but another pleasant early Spring day is expected once it clears off with highs again in the 50s & slightly higher winds out of southeast around 10-15 mph.

The weather becomes more active Friday as an area of low pressure tracks northeastwards from the central plains through Iowa. The track of the low & most of the precipitation with this system will remain off to our south, but there will be enough moisture streaming into the area ahead of & north of the low to create a soaking rainfall for at least the southern half of our area, with ensemble guidance suggesting we'll see around 0.5-1" of QPF through Saturday. Guidance has trended drier for for western & central Minnesota however, which will likely miss out on any precipitation until late Friday night/Saturday morning. Precipitation will come in a few waves with this system with widespread rain showers & even a few thunderstorms expected Friday morning, then a lull in the precipitation Friday afternoon & evening, followed by light precipitation in the wrap- around region behind the low Friday night into Saturday morning. We'll likely see some thunderstorms with the initial round of showers Friday morning, & then most high-resolution guidance prevents a possible second round of thunderstorms from developing much farther north than north-central Iowa. There is a low threat for strong thunderstorms & gusty winds with this afternoon round, but we would have to see the timing of the entire system slow by 6+ hours to likely have a chance at these stronger storms during the afternoon.

Another time to watch will be with the light precipitation Saturday morning, as models remain mixed on just how much temperatures will cool behind the system. A wintry mix of rain & snow looks most likely, but we could end up seeing a swath of accumulating snow should the coldest solutions verify, or even some areas of freezing rain/sleet if temperatures remain warm above the surface. Hard to go against the AIFS deterministic & ensemble solutions after their performance this winter, & sure enough they are one of the cooler solutions that generates a defined wrap-around region of snow overnight & accumulation of at least 1-2" across west-central Minnesota. We're still a few days out, but could be some early Winter Weather Advisory potential late Friday night into Saturday morning for both the accumulating snow & chance for a wintry mix of freezing rain or sleet into Saturday morning.

Despite a relative cool-down Saturday behind the system, our early start to Spring continues into next week as the jet stays north of the US/Canada border & ensemble guidance highlights temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees above normal. Highs in the 60s looks possible Sunday, & Sunday shows some early potential of being a very warm day as the AIFS ensemble suggests anomalies as much as 30F above normal. Winter is expected to return for the middle of March however, as a large weather system over the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday ushers in a pronounced stretch of below-normal weather. Most of the precipitation with this system again looks to be south & east of our area, but we'll have to monitor the potential for snow next Wednesday as when the cooldown begins.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A rather messy aviation scenario persists this evening. We've opened the TAF period with LIFR conditions due to dense fog and low stratus at AXN, along with visibility dropping at STC. MVFR stratus without fog is the story at RWF/MKT/MSP. On the flip side, the period opens with mostly clear skies at RNH/EAU. Forecast guidance continues to highlight ample low-level moisture evident on forecast soundings which will support low stratus and dense fog at area terminals overnight into Thursday morning. Confidence is highest in a prolonged period of dense fog at the central MN terminals, with lower confidence in the degree of visibility reductions across southern MN and western WI. Overall, fog may not be as widespread and long-lived into Thursday as was observed today due to the increase in SE winds forecast to occur tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Erosion of the MVFR stratus can be seen on satellite and is approaching the terminal from the east. It's possible that there may be a short term improvement in the ceiling category early this evening, however it's likely that an MVFR to IFR stratus scenario wins out tonight given ample moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Fog forecast remains fluid, but LAMP/RAP trends support IFR visibility late tonight through daybreak Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR -RA BR. Wind SE 10-15 kts, bcmg N late. SAT...MVFR/IFR -RA/SN early. VFR PM. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.