textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures expected through the end of the month.

- Chance for rain in SW Minnesota Sunday night/Monday morning and a more widespread chance Monday night into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This Weekend... High pressure overhead today allowed for clear skies this morning into the early afternoon. The heating of atmosphere then allowed for two thing to occur: diurnal fair weather cumulus clouds and mixing. Winds have varied across the broader region due to the winds aloft available to mix down. We have good mixing everywhere, but it is more from central Minnesota to western Wisconsin that has higher winds aloft and therefore higher winds brought down to the surface. As we start to cool this evening along the usual diurnal curve the skies will clear and the winds will become light. With clear skies and light winds we will see ample radiational cooling tonight. This will allow temperatures to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s. For these cooler areas, east central MN and northwest WI, some fog formation is possible. Sunday during the day will be a similar setup to Saturday with the high pressure system starting to move out, but still present. Another day warming up into the upper 70s, but there are not as high of winds aloft as the upper air pattern shifts and it will therefore not be as gusty outside. This shift in the pattern will have a bigger impact on Sunday night. Temperatures will not cool as much over western Minnesota as clouds move in. This will provide for a wider temperature gap with lows near the SD/MN border near 60 and in western WI temperatures will fall into the 40s. These clouds are tied to a larger system over the High Plains. Some of the rain showers associated with this system could impact parts of the southern Minnesota River Valley Sunday night into Monday morning. Due to the time of day there is little instability, so rain showers are most likely rather than thunderstorms.

Next Week... The main driver early in the week on Monday and Tuesday will be a shortwave moving across the Canadian Prairies. The associated surface low and its fronts will be the main source for lift driving the weather. The biggest question for us here continues to be moisture, as many forecast soundings continue to show lots of dry air to overcome. The timing of the frontal passage will limit much of the strong to severe storm chances. However a weak jet streak across North Dakota into northwest Minnesota (better shear) combined with a slightly earlier timing (more instability) could allow for some stronger storms in parts of west central Minnesota. For this reason SPC has a marginal severe risk out for this area. On the larger scale synoptic impacts there are still differences between the timing of the frontal passage and amount of moisture between ensemble members. For this reason any specific 6 hour period is hard to provide much more than a 40 percent chance. When the whole window is taken into account the grand majority of members provide at least some QPF. So bottom line, we will have to get into the higher resolution windows to gain more confidence on details but confidence on seeing rain across these two days has gone up. Past this it looks fairly quiet for the rest of the week with maybe some signal for something at the end of the week, but it is a little early to say much about that.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Diurnal CU is dissipating and wind gusts will subside in the first hour or two of the TAF. Light or calm winds tonight will remain light Sunday under clear skies.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA early. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.