textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures with rain this weekend, most likely across western Minnesota. Chance for thunder on Sunday.

- A wet start to next week is expected with widespread rain with some thunderstorm chances in southern Minnesota on Monday.

- Cooler and drier weather for the rest of the week with some below freezing temperatures possible across central Minnesota.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The low that brought in the cooler air after yesterday's rain and thunderstorms continues to spin over Saskatchewan. This low will remain rather stationary through Saturday and as it spins there will be a few rounds of vorticity that could drive some vertical ascent related to the PVA over the Upper Midwest. This is much less than what we saw yesterday, so more light rain chances rather than yesterday's thunderstorms. On Saturday, temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals and there is not much instability. Sunday looks to warm up past seasonable normals and thunderstorms will be possible. Any chance for strong storms on Sunday will remain well to our south so strong to severe storms are not expected here.

As the Saskatchewan low finally moves out on Sunday another low will move across the plains and into the Midwest on Monday. This low will be the main synoptic driver for our next main system. This looks to be a dynamic system that will be able to draw up Gulf moisture to provide for ample rain chances. Based on current tracks within global ensemble systems it is likely that the center will pass through Iowa and then into the Great Lakes. This mean track keeps much of the Upper Midwest on the cooler side of the low. On this cooler side there will be little chance for severe storms and rain showers are the forecast. Closer to the center of this low and south of the low, temperatures will be warmer and allow for greater instability and therefore thunderstorms. Favorable deep layer shear is also present in much of the guidance south of the low such that SPC already has a Day 4 outlook out which in includes the south central part of Minnesota. The exact track of this low will be key in determining what impacts occur Monday. As a shift to the south will keep all of us in the cooler rain, but a shift to the north even slightly could increase the chance for the strong to severe storms in southern Minnesota.

By Tuesday morning the low will move into Canada with only a chance for some lingering showers. As is common for lows like this there will be ample cold air advection behind this system. This will keep Tuesday and Wednesday highs generally in the 50s with overnight lows in the 30s. There will provide a good chance for a freeze across much of central Minnesota and frost chances elsewhere. So if you got an early start to your growing season, watch out for this cold air next week. Current global deterministic models keep this colder airmass present thought the end of the week and the flow doesn't start to shift away from the cold air until the following weekend. So expect a cool end to the month of April.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Winds favor 300-330 at or below 10kts to start the TAF, becoming VRB03kt through 08-12z before shifting towards 070-090 by the end of the period while remaining below 10kts. Skies initially SKC for most sites will slowly build with clouds, with CIGS building generally after 12z and lowering beyond 18z. MVFR is possible at AXN/STC/RWF, who also have a non-zero but below prob30 chance for -SHRA tomorrow with a chance from roughly 12-18z before a small gap as another chance arrives after 00z. All other sites are expected to remain dry and VFR throughout.

KMSP...There is a non-zero chance for -SHRA with the best overall possibility after 20z through 03z, however MVFR due to either visibility or CIGS is not expected. The better chance for -SHRA will remain west of MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, bcmg MVFR/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts. MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind E 10-15G25kts. TUE...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.