textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms expected this evening along a passing cold front. A few severe thunderstorms could produce large hail and gusty winds.

- Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather through the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Tonight...Early morning showers have persisted well into the afternoon here, limiting the atmosphere from recovering as much. That said, the combination of some clearing out west and increasing moisture has allowed a pool of greater instability to form across western and north-central MN. As the front moves southeast this evening, we expect isolated to scattered storms to develop along it, most likely over central MN. Sufficient wind shear (~30 to 40 kts) and moisture (PWATS ~1.2 to 1.4") will support the development and organization of at least a few storms. It is uncertain how many storms will become strong enough to reach severe limits given the relatively weaker mid level lapse rates (around 6 to 6.5 C/km). The SPC has maintained a slight risk of severe weather across a strip of MN and northwest WI, with a focus on large hail. It is important to note that not everyone within the risk area will see storms, in fact most may not see any rain, but that is the best environment for any storms that do develop to become more organized. The latest timing favors a later arrival for most locations, with the initial storms developing around 5-7pm near Alexandria and Brainerd, then moving southeast towards the Twin Cities metro and western WI around 9pm-midnight. Storms west/south of I-94 are more uncertain for storm development, especially across Minnesota.

This Weekend and Early Next Week...The forecast becomes "boring" again heading into the weekend as drier air moves in and northwest flow continues aloft. Temperatures remain very seasonable, and cloud cover should be pretty limited to your typical diurnal cumulus clouds each day.

Things shake up a little bit as we head into next week and heights start to rise aloft. Surface winds shift out of the south and warmer temperatures and greater moisture gradually returns. Long range guidance is showing broad agreement of rain chances at some point Monday-Wednesday, likely in the form of another frontal passage. That's a ways out, so we'll focus on the nice weather this weekend instead!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Isolated storms have developed near a cold front in western MN, with this activity expected to slide southeast over the next couple of hours. Greater TS coverage is occurring in northern MN where better forcing exists with shortwave energy dropping through northern MN. The storm west of RWF will track along/southeast of the MN River, likely skimming past RWF and MKT to the south. Storms in northern MN will drop southeast toward western WI, leading to increased TS threat for RNH/EAU closer to 6z. MSP/STC look to be between these two areas of enhanced storms. As these storms diminish overnight, stratus/fog is expected to develop closer to DLH near what will be a weakening surface low. Main question with this is how far south does the stratus extend. RAP soundings would support stratus getting as far south as MSP, though when looking at the range of hi-res models, it's really western WI (RNH/EAU) that stands out for having an IFR/MVFR stratus threat. Once any stratus mixes out Friday morning, the rest of the Friday will be uneventful.

KMSP...Kept the prob30 for TS in the 2z to 5z window, though current trends would suggest MSP will miss out on yet another rainfall opportunity with this front, with storms going north and south of the metro. For stratus tonight, current expectations is it will remain north of the metro, closer to the remnants of the surface low.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR, chc -SHRA late night. Wind S 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.