textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread temperatures near or below freezing early tomorrow morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect.

- Temperatures slightly warm this weekend with two chances of rain for eastern MN and west-central WI Saturday night and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Despite temperatures being about 5-10 degrees below normal, it's a pretty nice day out there! Light winds and partly cloudy skies will continue for the rest of the day. By nighttime, guidance is in solid agreement that clouds will quickly clear under the eastward-expanding ridge. Clearing skies and light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling, giving us higher confidence for impacts from near or sub-freezing temperatures. Our forecast for overnight lows leaned on the 25th percentile of the NBM as well as the 12z Canadian model. A widespread Freeze Warning is in effect for areas with greater risk to sensitive vegetation. For any counties north of the Warning, you can assume similar impacts for any early season growth that could be susceptible. The heat island of the Twin Cities may be enough to limit frost formation, especially in the core of the metro.

This will be our last night of near-freezing lows until Tuesday morning, thanks to the aforementioned ridge. Winds will shift out of the W/SW tomorrow, funneling in slightly warmer temps. This should make for a nice weekend with partly cloudy skies and highs in the 60s. The only real nuisance will be the chance for a line of showers and gusty northwest winds Saturday night into Sunday morning as a quick-moving shortwave gets ingested into the cyclonic flow around the upper low to our east. A much more pronounced h500 low will develop over the northern Great Lakes again to start next week, returning us to the same weather pattern that we were in all of this week. Highs will drop into the low to mid 50s with potential for frost/freeze concerns for at least a couple days again. There is no major signal for widespread rain in the next week, as highlighted by the WPC's 7-day QPF.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Mid-level clouds will begin to build in Saturday afternoon with skies becoming at least broken with cigs falling to 8000-10000 feet during the evening. A upper-level shortwave will bring a chance of -SHRA for most terminals Saturday evening so have added PROB30s accordingly. Significant impacts from precipitation are not expected, however. Light, variable winds this morning become west-southwesterly post-sunrise into Saturday evening. Across western MN, gusts will reach 20-25 knots while winds will slow with eastward extent. Winds generally become south-southwesterly at 5-10 knots Saturday evening.

KMSP...Broken cigs will drop to near 8000 feet between 00-08z Sunday. Maintained PROB30 for -SHRA and only slightly adjusted timing for late Saturday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. MON...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-15G30kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Saturday for Anoka-Blue Earth- Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville- Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Saturday for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.