textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and warm weather the rest of today and tomorrow.

- Snow likely on Sunday, mainly south of I-94. A narrow band of higher accumulation is possible, favoring southern Minnesota at this time.

- No major systems on the horizon, with small chances for light precipitation amidst quiet and warmer than normal conditions next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A quiet and beautiful day is ongoing with temperatures ranging from upper 30s in the Twin Cities to as high as the low to mid 50s in southwestern Minnesota as warm air advection in the lower levels is ongoing. The relatively clear skies will continue overnight thanks to an upper level jet approaching the area with the area of subsidence within the right exit region moving over the MPX CWA by around 06z. Continued warm air advection with relatively clear skies is expected tomorrow with even warmer temperatures ranging from mid 40s in the metro to as warm as the mid 50s along I-90. Winds will be a bit stronger tomorrow out of the southwest at 10-15 gusting to 25mph. Increasing clouds are then expected as another jet streak approaches the region, this time giving us synoptic lift and lower level convergence as opposed to subsidence. Guidance has generally trended slightly to the south over the last 48 hours, with the best chance for higher snow amounts from roughly Mankato to northern Iowa, with lower amounts north of Mankato where the forcing is weaker. This will be another event that is likely to feature a narrow band of what could be significantly higher accumulation, as forecast soundings show a saturated and deep dendritic growth zone in southern Minnesota coupled with some frontogenetic forcing. As these two variables line up for 2-3 hours, intense snowfall rates could result which may warrant needing a headline, however confidence in the placement of the band is currently too low to do so. Outside of this narrow band where the frontogenesis and DGZ line up, weaker snowfall rates should keep snow amounts generally under 2- 3 inches. The high end amounts within the band could exceed 3-4 inches, with the length of residence time within both the DGZ and banded ascent being the key factor as rates could exceed 1 in/hr for a few hours. We are keeping a close eye on the next 24-36 hours of model runs to see if the location of the band reaches enough of a consensus to more confidently pinpoint, but for now expect the highest snow amounts in southern Minnesota with significantly lower amounts to the north away from the primary band.

Some lingering light snowfall is possible on Sunday as the upper level jet streak continues to move across the region, although the dynamics within the right entrance of the jet are much weaker given the best wind speeds aloft at the nose of the jet. This weak forcing could squeeze out additional nuisance small accumulations, but this time being broader in location with lower potential for significant banding and more of a dusting type of snowfall. After Sunday, the jet streak which was primarily influencing the local weather will be moving northeast out of the area, replaced by weakening flow aloft with a weak positively tilting trough manifesting by midweek. Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes should keep us from seeing significant precipitation, with the only chances likely stemming from mid level vorticity from the aforementioned troughing. Lower to mid level warm air advection will once again rebound temperatures in the mid 30s to more 40s by midweek, which will readily eat into whatever fresh snow we acquire over the weekend. The longer range forecast looks to continue the above normal temperature trend into March, with low confidence in sensible weather and precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Some lingering scattered stratus at the start of the period for EAU, but quickly shifts east with no sensible impact. Southwesterly winds turn west-southwesterly by mid-afternoon, with speeds around 10 kts. Wind speeds diminish after sunset but gust return early Friday morning across west-central Minnesota. Winds begin to turn to the northwest late Friday morning/at the end of the TAF for our MN terminals.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, chc MVFR cigs. Wind N 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.