textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler, more seasonable, temperatures through Friday with warmer above normal temperatures returning this weekend into next week.

- Next chance for widespread rain on Thursday, most likely across southern Minnesota with chance decreasing to the northwest.

- Widespread frost, possible widespread freeze Friday night into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The cooler temperatures will continue today, very similar to yesterday's temperature, with high surface pressure moving in. Thanks to this high pressure rain is not expected today. This will all change as we head into tomorrow. A cut off upper low over the western CONUS will meet a trough digging down from Canada over us on Thursday. This will provide synoptic support for our next best chance for rain. The primary surface features with this look to be associated the the upper level forcing associated with the western CONUS. This keeps the main low well to our south. Therefore, we look to be on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. There is good agreement in this setup across the global models and now that it is getting closer CAMs. Where the variability remains though is how far north the edge of this gets. There is good agreement in southern Minnesota seeing some greater than 0.5 inch amounts as both the LREF and REFS have 50 percent or more of membership showing this. It is farther north up to the Twin Cities and into Eau Claire that there is a difference. The REFS takes this 50 percent of a half inch line up to the Twin Cities and Eau Claire while the LREF does not. RRFS and HRRR have a similar split. So the heavier rain getting up farther north is a possibility, but with mainly the RRFS/REFS family of models as the main support it seems like a upper quartile like solution rather than the most likely one. Looking ahead this is our main chance for any precipitation until mid to late next week.

High pressure will move into the Northern PLain on Friday behind Thursday's rain. This will put us into a region of pretty strong CAA. This will provide a setup for a windy day on Friday and a very cold overnight period Friday into Saturday. Looking into guidance a widespread frost looks very likely. In addition much of guidance has a freeze possible to likely across the region with the exception of the urban core of the Twin Cities metro. After a cold start Saturday will warm up quickly as a ridge is building into the central CONUS. The WAA with this will continue throughout the weekend bringing Saturday highs up into the lower 60s and Sunday's into the mid 60s. A developing trough over the western CONUS next week, while the ridge remains over us will provide for more WAA opportunities Monday to Wednesday. This will allow for highs to break back into the lower 70s next week. So overall a bit of a roller coaster ahead with the coldest air of the season late this week followed by a return to temperatures about 10 degrees above normal the next week. This is typical for the transition seasons in the Upper Midwest where we get alternating periods of warmer and cooler. Eventually the cold will win out, but the warm doesn't go without a fight.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Broken to overcast stratus near 2000 feet will cause continued MVFR into this afternoon. Stratus will then begin to slowly lift, break apart, and retreat north allowing for VFR this evening. Scattered low-end VFR clouds could remain overnight before another deck of clouds near 5000 feet arrives from the southwest towards the end of the period. RWF and MKT may see -SHRA at the end of the period so have included PROB30s at these terminals. Northerly winds near 5 knots gradually turn clockwise to northeasterly and slow by late this afternoon. Light/variable winds are expected tonight.

KMSP...MVFR expected until 23z before cigs lift to VFR. -SHRA will begin around 15z Thursday with cigs falling to 1500 feet. Northeasterly winds of 5 knots are expected this afternoon through this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind lgt & vrbl bcmg NW 5-10 kts. FRI...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NW 15-20G30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.