textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms continue through Monday across MN and extreme western WI.

- Better chance for more widespread rainfall mid-week.

- Above-normal temperatures continue through at least early June.

UPDATE

Issued at 840 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue along a line from Stevens county to Faribault county. As of 8:30 AM, the strongest of the elevated storms were located across Stevens & Pope counties in a region supported by 25-30kt LLJ winds & a gradient of 100-200 MUCAPEs. Lightning continues to be the main concern with this activity, which should display a weakening trend as the LLJ lifts north in the next few hours. Western MN remains the portion of the region favored for more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today. It's possible that a few raindrops are observed across eastern MN/western WI, but the combination of a wedge of dry low-level air (sampled on the 12z MPX RAOB) and little elevated instability will promote evaporation of showers. We sent a fresh PoP update to reflect the latest hourly forecast expectations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Our band of scattered showers has translated north & east overnight, now stretching from southeast MN up towards west- central MN. We have seen reflectivity increase on radar and many sites are starting to report light rain as we continue to overcome the dry boundary layer. This band will lift north as a few additional showers and storms redevelop across southwestern MN later this morning. There continues to be a lot of energy tied to the shortwave positioned over the central Rockies, fueling our persistent rain chances today through tonight. It really is not until Monday morning when the surface low spins north into Canada that our shower and cloud coverage will start to wane. It's worth noting that an area of scattered storms is expected to develop to our west across the Central Plains during the afternoon. Building instability and steep lapse rates will support a few stronger storms, with potential for severe hail and wind. The environment becomes less favorable as the storms head east, but there is a nonzero chance that one or two of the stronger storms continue into southwest MN during the evening. By Monday night, upper level ridging will dominate the Upper Midwest again.

Much of Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday should be quite nice with highs in the mid 80s, mostly sunny skies, and light winds. By Wednesday afternoon, we'll start to see a low level response to the redevelopment of the shortwave over the Canadian Rockies. Winds will begin to strengthen out of the south and cloud cover will start to expand as moisture advection increases. As the surface low slowly tracks east through southern Canada, a cold front will sag across MN and WI, lingering through Friday. This will give way to a chance at several rounds of rain, with the greatest confidence for area- wide rain during the day Thursday. There is not a high threat for widespread convection given limited instability, so latest QPF keeps most areas around 0.25" to 0.75" during this window. In summary, a handful of folks could see an inch or more of rain over the next 7 days, though it relies on lower end environments and lighter rainfall rates. Temperatures remain warm into next weekend as zonal flow gives way back to ridging over the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout this duration but there will be some very light intermittent rain showers at several of the TAF sites over the next 24-30 hrs. The bulk of the precipitation will occur over western and southern MN, thus potentially moving across AXN-RWF-MKT through mid-Sunday afternoon. Most of the precip showing up on KMPX radar may not reach the ground due to exceptionally dry air up to around 10 kft, but any precip that does reach the terminals will be light and is not expected to result in a flight category degradation from VFR. There may also be a few thunderstorms over far western MN, mainly impacting AXN-RWF, which could reduce visibilities into MVFR range. However, generally speaking, visibilities will remain over 6sm and ceilings will drop to no lower than 5-7kft, and generally remain around 10 kft. With SE winds remaining breezy through the early morning hours, no fog is expected.

KMSP...Precipitation is generally expected to remain south and west of MSP though a few light sprinkles/showers may reach the airport from time to time through late this afternoon. That said, little to no impacts are expected with any precip that moves across the terminal today. A bit better chance for more frequent showers comes late tonight into Monday morning so later TAFs will refine that precip instance.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...Mainly VFR. Chance P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10G20 kts. THU...SHRA likely. Chance TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.