textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very dry and windy conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions through early evening. Areas of blowing dust late this afternoon across southwestern MN.

- Warm temperatures continue through Monday, followed by more seasonable temperatures the rest of the week.

- Scattered thunderstorms with hail are possible Monday night across southeast MN and west central WI.

- A couple more chances for precipitation through the week with the best chance next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

After a very cold morning in the teens and 20s and a slow morning rebound due to cloud cover, the clouds have cleared, temepratures have risen to near 60 across western MN and good mixing is underway. Winds are gusting 35 to 50 mph, with the highest gusts across southwestern MN. Satellite, surface obs, and webcams indicate areas of blowing dust in this area. Winds will begin to subside late afternoon, leaving another 2 to 3 hour window for blowing dust to continue before ending. Fire weather-wise, much of our MN counties are nearing or exceeding Red Flag criteria. Humidities continue to drop and have reached the teens in parts of west central MN with 20s elsewhere. Highs have yet to be reached, so there is some further drying expected before recovery begins near sunset.

A stationary front will remain draped across central MN to northern WI through Sunday night before slowly dropping south Monday. Lighter winds and improved humidity will reduce the fire weather threat, despite warmer temperatures. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s are expected Sunday, and nearing 80 across southern MN Monday. The positioning of the front Monday afternoon will have significant implications on high temperatures across central MN and WI. Areas north of the front may remain in the 50s.

Low pressure will develop along the front Monday afternoon and slide east to WI Monday evening. This will push the front south across western MN, but may keep it nearly stationary into Monday night across west central WI. A LLJ will strengthen to 50-60 kts from the southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley late Monday evening and Monday night. Very steep mid level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km will overspread the region. The increased moisture flux from the strengthening jet should allow elevated thunderstorms to develop by late Monday evening from southeast MN into central WI. Given the degree of mid level shear, a few of these storms would be capable of large hail. The timing of the front will dictate how far north these will develop, but for now they are looking to remain southeast of a line from Albert Lea to Eau Claire.

Temperatures beyond Monday will be near normal for early April. An active zonal flow will bring two primary weather systems across the central U.S. by next weekend. The first should remain largely to the south across the mid MS Valley and Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. A few showers are possible on the northwestern fringes of the system, but will be inconsequential. The system immediately on its heels will have a deeper trough to work with Friday into Saturday. It will track across the northern or central Plains to the Great Lakes. There remains a lot of spread, but such a track should bring better precipitation chances during that time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR expected at all terminals for the entire period. Only scattered to broken high clouds will persist through this morning. South-southeasterly winds will turn south-southwesterly by Sunday afternoon with speeds ranging from 5-10 knots. Winds become light and variable Sunday evening. Added southwesterly LLWS of 40 knots for the next few hours at RWF, MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU as a LLJ from earlier today continues to persist.

KMSP...Added southwesterly LLWS of 40 knots from the start of the TAF period until 10Z Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.