textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer this afternoon with widespread highs in the 40s, & 50s across western Minnesota.

- A wintry mix of mostly rain, but chances for light snow & freezing drizzle, spreads across the area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Chances for ice are highest across western Wisconsin.

- Light snow, gusty northwest winds around 50 mph, & plummeting temperatures develop Thursday morning. Low visibility from blowing snow & flash freeze conditions leading to icy roads & surfaces is likely, mainly across western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Temperatures are overachieving this afternoon with highs already in the low 50s across western Minnesota & 40s elsewhere. We've probably seen the most of our warming for the afternoon given the waning Sun angle, but highs could still warm by another degree or two. Southwest winds gusting over 20 mph are making it feel not as pleasant as possible out there, but we'll take it for our warmest afternoon since before Thanksgiving.

Winds slacken overnight, but become gusty again Wednesday morning as southerly winds develop ahead of a deepening surface low skirting along the US/Canada border. This low is forecast to deepen into the 980 mb range by Thursday morning, which is actually near the climatological extremes for mid-December, so it's no surprise that we have an active & definitely windy stretch of weather beginning Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

Light precipitation could start as early as mid-afternoon Wednesday across western & central Minnesota, mainly driven by isentropic upglide with the strong warm advection ahead of the surface cold front. Temperatures should stay warm enough for this precipitation to begin as rain given the continued warm advection through the day, with the exception of western Wisconsin where temepratures could still be a few degrees below freezing when the precip likely begins during the evening. Wherever we might see an hour or two of freezing drizzle, temperatures will continue to warm through the night, quickly changing over any wintry mix into rain. The light rain will wrap up from west to east during the overnight hours, as the low reaches it's max intensity & a well-defined dry slot moves over the region. We'll likely be dry for several hours after midnight into early thursday morning, but round two of this system arrives during the morning & early afternoon as an Arctic front moves through the region. Light snow is expected behind this front, but the lack of any appreciable moisture means accumulations will likely be on the order of an inch or less by Thursday night. The real issues with this snow will be the very gusty northwest winds behind the front, along with flash freeze conditions as temperatures plummet behind the front. The good news is that any blowing snow Thursday will have to come entirely from the light falling snow, as the warm temperatures today & rain tomorrow will effectively mitigate any potential for the antecedent snowpack to blow around. Still, low visibility & northwest winds gusting to at least 40-50 mph across western Minnesota will lead to difficult travel conditions, especially during the evening commute. Roads could also ice over quickly with the falling snow & melting snow from the antecedent snowpack quickly freezing up on roads & surfaces into Thursday night as temperatures fall into the single digits & eventually below zero by the overnight hours.

The frigid conditions continue onto Friday morning with lows in the negative single digits across most of the area, and wind chills as low as -30 degrees across western Minnesota. temperatures are expected to rebound closer to normal values into Friday afternoon, but we'll likely stay on the cooler end of normal going into the weekend. Strong zonal flow sits over the northern tier of the CONUS into next week, which should prevent any major winter systems over the region for the foreseeable future. However, any subtle waves within the jet could create chances for light precip, so we may see multiple nuisance chances for light snow over the weekend & into next week. Temperatures look to remain fairly reasonable give the zonal flow, but we will likely stay of to the north of any potential warm airmasses given the jet overhead.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Swath of MVFR stratus over central MN has made good progress south and east through this evening, and looks to remain in place for at least the first few hours of the 16/06z TAFs at all sites except RWF. As the cold front sweeps away from the area, breezy NW winds are expected to drop off close to sunrise as a high pressure surface ridge axis moves across the area, allowing winds to go light/variable for a few hours late Wednesday morning. Winds will pick up from the S Wednesday afternoon, and this will coincide with strong winds off the deck, such that LLWS conditions look likely late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Also coinciding with this strong increase in winds will be the ramping up of precipitation chances for Wednesday evening. Temperatures will gradually rise during the day and evening tomorrow, starting out below freezing then rising above the freezing mark late tomorrow afternoon and remaining in the mid-upper 30s for much of Wednesday night. Thus, while there is a small non-zero chance of freezing drizzle at the onset of precipitation, the vast bulk will come as rain. The only exception here looks to be EAU, where the coldest air will be stuck the longest. Thus, at EAU, there may be a mixture of FZDZ and SN for a few hours Wednesday evening before sufficient warming allows the p-type to fall as rain.

KMSP...No appreciable issues until Wednesday afternoon, when the southerly winds pick up, strong LLWS conditions develop and rain is expected for the area. There is a small non-zero chance that FZDZ may precede the rainfall, but any icing is expected to be short-lived as rain is expected from around 00z onward as surface temperatures rise above freezing, limiting any FZDZ impacts to non-ground surfaces (i.e. aircraft, jetbridges, vehicles, carts, etc).

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR with -SN likely. Accumulations under 1". Wind NW 15-20G30kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind NW 5-10kts becoming SE 10-15G25kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.