textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread light rain begin to diminish this afternoon.

- Scattered rain chances return this weekend with Saturday offering the best chance for showers across much of Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- A frontal passage brings more widespread rain Monday night into Tuesday with locally heavier rainfall possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Light rain continues to spread eastwards into western Wisconsin, but should begin to diminish as we get later into the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be on the order of a tenth of an inch or less. Skies remain mostly cloudy into Friday which will keep temperatures fairly steady, falling to around 60 overnight & warming back into the upper 60s tomorrow afternoon.

Rain chances return this weekend as a weak disturbance moves through the Upper Midwest. Saturday currently looks like the wetter day, with scattered showers & a few thunderstorms developing across much of Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Similar to today, showers will be more widespread across western Minnesota compared to eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Expected rainfall amounts this weekend range from around half an inch across western Minnesota to only a tenth or less across western Wisconsin.

A stronger shortwave & surface front approaches the region Monday. Southerly winds ahead of this system should allow temperatures to moderate somewhat, with highs climbing back into the upper 60s to around 70 in many areas. Increasing moisture will also set the stage for a more widespread round of rain as a cold front moves through Monday night into Tuesday. This currently looks like the best chance for a broad, soaking rain during the next several days, with current guidance supporting a widespread 0.50-1" of rain and locally higher amounts possible. Severe weather still appears unlikely, but embedded thunderstorms could enhance rainfall rates in spots.

Cooler air filters back into the region behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday, with more fall-like temperatures through the rest of the week with highs in the low to mid 60s & lows in the 40s. The pattern may remain active as another disturbance develops along or north of the stalled frontal zone late Wednesday into Thursday. Some spread in the guidance exists on just how far north the precipitation fro this system may extend into Minnesota, but at least the far-souther portion of the state appears positioned for another round of appreciable rainfall. Otherwise, high pressure building over the Upper Midwest should keep us cool & dry through next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A swath of rain showers over SW into central MN continues to ever-so-slowly shift east but also start to show signs of shrinking at initialization. Thus, the drier air to its east may be winning the battle and preventing the precipitation from making it much farther east than it currently is. Will still look for rain showers as far east as MSP but getting to the WI TAF sites may be a stretch. Regardless, ceilings will drop to MVFR range for all MN TAF sites by late afternoon, and to IFR ceilings in western and central MN. The low stratus will persist overnight through sunrise Friday, and may be accompanied with some areas of fog, especially near and north of I-94. Although the precipitation will end during the evening hours, the low ceilings will remain in place for at least the first half of Friday. Winds will remain from the SE throughout, with breezy/gusty speeds this afternoon dropping off to 5-10kts this evening through the first half of Friday.

KMSP...VFR to start, with a few sprinkles/showers moving over the airport by about 20Z. Precipitation will continue through sunset, although becoming much lighter going from -RA to -DZ. This may allow visibility to drop to MVFR range. Ceilings will remain within MVFR range from this evening through about sunrise Friday, then slowly rise into lower-end VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.