textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunday morning, confidence increasing in a thunderstorm complex moving in from the Dakotas, but still uncertainty if it will be near I-90, I-94, or somewhere in between.

- Long duration period of heat and humidity begins Sunday, persisting through the week. Extreme Heat Watch issued for Monday, but heat impacts to be felt all week with little overnight relief and therefore a building heat stress.

- Chances for thunderstorms through next week. Storms will be capable of severe weather & torrential rain, if they are able to form.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

The main concern is dangerous heat on Monday. Assuming the convection stays to the north on Sunday night, hot and humid conditions will be in place Monday morning, and ample sunshine will lead to heat indices near 105 degrees during the afternoon. Did issue an Extreme Heat Watch for most of the area starting at 9am Monday, and lasting through 8pm.

Heat Advisories and Warnings will likely be needed on Monday, and there is a chance they could be extended into Tuesday as well, which brings us to the next concern - severe storms.

The reason the Heat Watch was only issued through Monday evening, is because there is a chance for storms and clouds Monday night into Tuesday as a weak boundary approaches from the northwest. The catch- 22 is that heat risk compounds with longer duration, meaning multiple days of heat pose a higher threat. We decided to take the heat watches/warnings/advisories day-by-day given the chance for storms.

The secondary concern is severe weather and heavy rain next week. A Day3 Slight Risk in place across most of the region Sunday night into Monday, with the main threats being large hail and damaging wind.

There is no outlook beyond day three, but as mentioned in the SPC discussion, the overall pattern doesnt change. Rather, there is simply low confidence in timing and placement of thunderstorm complexes, since it will be subtle features that drive them. So for that reason, continued with the blended guidance for pops and temperatures for Tuesday and beyond, knowing that heat and thunderstorms are possible through next week and into the Holiday Weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Biggest change to this TAF period was turning PROB30s into TEMPOs for -TSRA across central and southern MN (RWF, STC, and MKT). CAMs are coming into better agreement for a bowing line of thunderstorms traveling west to east across MN after sunrise Sunday morning. These storms may contain large hail and damaging winds, though confidence isn't currently high enough to include these hazards in the TAF. Expect reduced visibilities down to at least MVFR during storms. Cigs will fall to MVFR/IFR across MN tonight into Sunday afternoon before improving to MVFR/VFR. Meanwhile, WI terminals are more likely to periodically fall to MVFR. Have included a PROB30 Sunday afternoon at AXN and STC for possible -SHRA. Southeasterly winds will maximize as a LLJ passes west to east through the region. Peak sustained values will reach 15-20 knots while gusts reach 25-30 knots.

KMSP...Not confident enough to upgrade PROB30 to TEMPO for -TSRA Sunday morning. CAMs now favor a bowing line of storms traveling west to east across southern MN during Sunday morning. This line weakens and begins to dive southeast as it travels east. Thus, the impact for MSP is uncertain. MVFR cigs Sunday morning through the afternoon before improving to VFR. Southeasterly winds will gust to near 30 knots during the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Chc PM TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts. WED...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota- Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne- Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright. WI...Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-St. Croix.