textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunday morning, confidence increasing in a thunderstorm complex moving in from the Dakotas, but still uncertainty if it will be near I-90, I-94, or somewhere in between.

- Long duration period of heat and humidity begins Sunday, persisting through the week. Extreme Heat Watch issued for Monday, but heat impacts to be felt all week with little overnight relief and therefore a building heat stress.

- Chances for thunderstorms through next week. Storms will be capable of severe weather & torrential rain, if they are able to form.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

The main concern is dangerous heat on Monday. Assuming the convection stays to the north on Sunday night, hot and humid conditions will be in place Monday morning, and ample sunshine will lead to heat indices near 105 degrees during the afternoon. Did issue an Extreme Heat Watch for most of the area starting at 9am Monday, and lasting through 8pm.

Heat Advisories and Warnings will likely be needed on Monday, and there is a chance they could be extended into Tuesday as well, which brings us to the next concern - severe storms.

The reason the Heat Watch was only issued through Monday evening, is because there is a chance for storms and clouds Monday night into Tuesday as a weak boundary approaches from the northwest. The catch- 22 is that heat risk compounds with longer duration, meaning multiple days of heat pose a higher threat. We decided to take the heat watches/warnings/advisories day-by-day given the chance for storms.

The secondary concern is severe weather and heavy rain next week. A Day3 Slight Risk in place across most of the region Sunday night into Monday, with the main threats being large hail and damaging wind.

There is no outlook beyond day three, but as mentioned in the SPC discussion, the overall pattern doesnt change. Rather, there is simply low confidence in timing and placement of thunderstorm complexes, since it will be subtle features that drive them. So for that reason, continued with the blended guidance for pops and temperatures for Tuesday and beyond, knowing that heat and thunderstorms are possible through next week and into the Holiday Weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR to start the period but scattered to broken clouds near 4000-5000 feet across southern MN will continue spread north and east during tonight. Cigs will also drop from west to east tonight into Sunday morning, reaching IFR/MVFR across MN and MVFR over WI. CAMs depict SHRA and one or two TSRA forming along the nose of the WAA/LLJ across western MN Sunday morning. This convection will travel east with time, likely weakening as it heads into WI by late morning. Confidence is still rather low on where TSRA will occur with some CAMs favoring near AXN/STC while others are farther south towards RWF/MKT. Have included PROB30s for -TSRA Sunday morning for most MN terminals. Cigs should improve to MVFR/VFR Sunday afternoon. A LLJ will travel from west to east across the area Sunday increasing surface winds as it does so. Sustained values will reach 15-20 knots at peak while gusts will reach 25-30 knots.

KMSP...MVFR cigs expected after 12z Sunday. For PROB30 Sunday morning, sped up arrival time by 1 hour and included -TSRA instead of just -SHRA. CAMs show some agreement on a multi-cell line of storms traveling through south-central MN Sunday morning. Cigs should improve to VFR Sunday evening. Southeasterly winds peak Sunday afternoon with gusts nearing 30 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Chc PM TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts. WED...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota- Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne- Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright. WI...Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-St. Croix.