textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend this week with highs in the 50s and lows above freezing for much of the week ahead.

- Dry conditions to continue through mid week until a couple of systems move through late week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Today and Tonight... One final morning with a widespread freeze before we move into a warming trend for the rest of the week. Some additional below freezing temperatures possible, mainly in western Wisconsin Sunday night. This shift in temperatures today is driven by increasing southerly flow as the surface high pressure moves out to the east. Today will likely see the first 50s of the week, although widespread 50s will come later in the week. Tonight the warmer lows will mainly be over western Minnesota where the main area of WAA is, while one more night of freezing temperatures is forecast across western Wisconsin.

Monday to Wednesday... This part of the week will be warm and windy as we stay under the ridge aloft. High certainty in ensembles and the NBM with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Ample warmth in the lower atmosphere will favor mixing and bring down gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph in the afternoons during this period. Precipitation chances remain near zero over this period under weak to non-existant synoptic forcing under the ridge aloft.

Thursday into next weekend... This will be the period with the more active weather. There is a low chance event Wednesday night into Thursday morning and a high chance event late Friday into Saturday. This first low chance event is a shortwave trough moving across the Midwest with more questionable moisture. This second chance will have both a larger scale wave aloft and much greater moisture. This is what has NBM with slight chance (under 30%) for this first wave and definite chance (over 80%) for the second larger wave. Still some uncertainty of the exact low track, but in most solutions we stay in the warm sector and rain is favored. As the low moves out and we get into the wrap around part of the system this is when cold air will return. This will bring our warm up to and end and we could see some snow mix in, especially in parts of central Minnesota. While snow looks possible at the end, accumulations look unlikely at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Clear skies to FEW250 this period. This has allowed for some fog at the usual low lying sites again. This means another morning of in and out LIFR/IFR for EAU. After sunrise this should lift fairly quickly to VFR. Winds will be calm to light and variable this morning. Southerly winds pick up today with some gusts up to around 17 knots, mainly across western Minnesota. More widespread gusty winds on Monday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON PM...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SSW 10-15G20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.