textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer, dry air and breezy winds will create elevated fire weather conditions today across western Minnesota.

- Another cold front swings through Monday with showers favoring western Wisconsin. Accumulations expected to remain under a tenth of an inch.

- Cooler temperatures again behind Monday's cold front, followed by a gradual warming trend into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Radar imagery shows scattered returns over southern MN and into west- central WI early this morning. A lot of this activity has been virga, owing to the deep, dry sub-cloud layer seen in the 00Z MPX ROAB. However, several AWOSs have reported light rain and GOES satellite even detected a few lightning flashes near BDH. These showers and cloud cover will continue to move southeast throughout the rest of tonight, allowing for a sunny Sunday. Highs this afternoon into the mid 60s to near 70. The air should also dry throughout the day in the wake of weak cold front. This will set the stage for some elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. RHs will drop below 30% with a large portion of the CWA falling to 20- 25%. Vegetation green-ness and winds will be limiting factors, but wind gusts will reach 20 mph for most of today. Some stronger gusts are possible across western MN in the late afternoon/early evening. As such, have issued an SPS in western MN today for elevated fire weather conditions.

Lows tonight will only fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s as the warmer air mass remains. Southwesterly winds will increase during the night as a LLJ ahead of a shortwave over south-central Canada translates over the Upper Midwest. Have bumped up winds through Monday afternoon using a blend of the NBM/NBM 90th percentile. Gusts in western MN Monday will range from 30-35 MPH. The main energy of the aforementioned shortwave will pass well to our northeast, but a strong cold front will move through the Upper Midwest during the day Monday. A large gradient in high temperatures should occur as the front passes through during the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s are forecast for our southeastern counties while mid to upper 50s are more likely for west-central MN. Scattered rain showers are also possible along this cold front, though most of the synoptic lift is also well off to our northeast. West-central WI currently has the best chance (20-30%) at seeing showers Monday afternoon. Cooler air will follow the front, returning us to below normal temperatures through mid-week. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, frost/freeze concerns will be back on the menu as overnight lows will fall to near or under 32, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday night.

Fortunately, forecast models don't show the cooldown lasting too long, as the heart of polar, continental airmass begins to shift east the latter half of this week. We should see a steady warmup with next weekend's temperatures already hinting to be similar to what we've seen this weekend. As for precipitation chances the remainder of the period, forecast certainty in rainfall is low as continued northwesterly flow will limit available moisture. Long- range models show a few opportunities for weaker shortwaves to pass through the Northern Plains, but large spread in location and timing results in very low PoPs after Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected the entire period. Clear skies are expected for a majority of today. Scattered to broken mid to high level clouds build in from the northwest during tonight. Winds will become northwesterly quickly during this morning, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to near 20 knots thru this afternoon. Winds slow to 5-10 knots this evening while becoming southwesterly. But, speeds increase after midnight with gusts sustained values of 10-15 knots and gusts of 20-25 knots. Strongest winds will be in western MN. Added west-southwesterly LLWS of 40-45 knots at all TAF sites after 06z Monday as a strong LLJ moves overhead.

KMSP...Northwesterly winds will gust to 20 knots late this morning thru this afternoon. Winds turn southwesterly after sunset, briefly slowing before increasing again during tonight. Gusts will reach 20-25 knots throughout Monday morning. Kept west-southwesterly LLWS of 40 knots from 08-15z Monday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SW to NW 10-15G25 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.