textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms this afternoon across western Wisconsin. Less certainty on the threat across eastern Minnesota, although the overall threat continues to look lower.

- Large hail & damaging wind are the main hazards with the strongest thunderstorms today. A tornado or two can not be ruled out.

- Much cooler Thursday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thunderstorms are developing across far-southeast Minnesota & have quickly become severe as they move into western Wisconsin. The main threat area over the next 2-4 hours will be across western Wisconsin as these cells continue to move eastwards & new cells develop & intensify. Large hail (a few 2"+ hailstones possible) & damaging wind are expected to be the primary threat with the storms across western Wisconsin this afternoon. Helicity values (low-level spin) have trended lower than expected across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, so the tornado threat is lower but still-non-zero.

Overall, we've seen a general downtrend in our severe weather event compared to this morning & especially forecasts from the last two days. The thunderstorm complex overnight did act to reduce our instability this morning, but the main culprit is the earlier onset of thunderstorms late this morning early this afternoon - before instability really peaks this afternoon. The main trend to monitor this afternoon, & most uncertainty in the short-term forecast, will be how much cumulus development we see back behind the ongoing thunderstorms across central Minnesota. As of early afternoon, we've seen the most new cumulus development across south-central Minnesota where a few showers have been struggling to further intensify. Current mesoanalysis across the region shows mid-level lapse rates on the order of 6.5-7 C/km, which are not exactly favorable for "explosive" development despite the very rich low-level moisture & surface-based CAPE values around 2500 J/Kg. Our 18Z weather balloon will give us a better view of the atmosphere, especially capping/lapse rates aloft, & allow for abetter evaluation of the severe potential across east-central, south-central, & southeast MN through the rest of the afternoon. For now though, any threat looks to be more isolated with hail & a few wind gusts the primary threat.

The ongoing severe storms across western Wisconsin will exit our area by 2-3 PM, & then we wait & see how much additional development we get into late afternoon. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests that we could see a second round of storms initiate across far- southeast Minnesota & western Wisconsin. If these storms develop, then we could see the threat for severe weather continue across western Wisconsin into early evening. Elsewhere, not expecting much more than an isolated thunderstorm through the rest of the afternoon with tonight looking quiet.

Drier air moves into the region tonight into tomorrow morning, likely mitigating the threat for fog overnight although some patchy mist is possible in low-lying areas. Widespread rain showers look likely Thursday as we end up in the deformation region northwest of the surface low, which will help keep our temperatures much cooler in the low 70s. A much cooler Canadian airmass then moves into the region behind todays cold front & lingers through the weekend. Ensemble guidance shows temperature anomalies near 10 degrees below normal over the weekend & into early next week, meaning we'll see much more comfortable highs in the low to mid 70s & lows in the 40s & 50s. A few chances for precipitation are possible but little or now chance for heavy rain or strong thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Further west, additional thunderstorm development is possible, but there is a high amount of uncertainty. Have added a PROB30 for TSRA at KSTC and adjusted timing of the PROB30 at KMSP. Will likely need a handful of AMDs through this afternoon when/if storms start to fire. Winds will briefly go westerly this evening with some gusts around 20kts before returning to the south/southwest at 10kts or less.

KMSP...Watching storms trying to develop near KMKT. As mentioned above, the uncertainty in this forecast is high due to the scattered nature of these storms and if storms initialize across western Minnesota in the next few hours. We have just sent up a special balloon to help give us a better idea of our environment as we head into mid afternoon. Storm chances decrease quickly after 00-02z, with winds going light and variable. Tomorrow, showers return by late morning with southerly/southwesterly winds around 10kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind W 15G30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.