textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of freezing rain looking increasingly likely late Monday afternoon through Monday night.

- Large winter storm to impact the central Plains to upper Great Lakes next weekend, greatest potential for accumulating snow locally is across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave quickly approaching Morris in western MN, with a nice dry slot punching in to the south of the shortwave into southwest MN. This dry slot is quickly shutting down the precip (as was forecast to happen). Looking at MnDot road conditions, the only areas that have shown ice on the roads is up around Mora, with any other non-green areas in our region (Fergus Falls down toward Glencoe) the result of blow ice from blowing snow as apposed to freezing rain. In addition, traffic speed maps show normal speeds across the region, so for freezing rain, the impacts have been pretty minimal, so we'll be able to let headlines go as the precip ends. The only potential hiccup is the HRRR reflectivity forecast gives the idea of a batch of freezing drizzle developing up toward Duluth this evening, with that possibly getting as far south as Mora over to Ladysmith, though the bulk of this is expected to stay north of our area, so we see no reason to continue headlines once this round of freezing rain passes.

Next problem to tackle comes with the wave currently coming on shore in Cali between LA and San Fran. This will be the source of our next chance for precipitation. The biggest change we've seen with this wave is it's arrival time, with precip likely to start breaking out over central/southern MN late Monday afternoon, with that precip continuing through Monday night, mostly ending by Tuesday morning. As the previous discussion mentioned, this is a fgen forced mesoscale band of precip, which will result in a narrow, though intense band of precipitation developing. For being about 36 hours out, there's a good deal of spread with exactly where this band of precipitation will fall. You have everything from the 12z HRRR, which laid down it's highest QPF up over Duluth, to the 12z Canadian, which had its heavy precipitation band down between the Twin Cities and Rochester. Given where the mean h5 low tracks on the EPS across northern Iowa, it's fair to say we can pretty much ignore models that throw the precipitation Monday night way up by Duluth, with the mostly likely path of the highest QPF right across the center of the MPX area from Willmar, through the Twin Cities, and over to Eau Claire. The continued tricky part with this forecast is the p-type. What we can say with 100% confidence given how warm the warm nose is Monday night is we will not have snow. Instead it's a question of freezing rain or rain, as temperatures will basically be ranging from 30 to 34 as this precipitation event unfolds. However, given the nocturnal timing of the rain, we would favor freezing rain being the primary type, as a lack of solar insolation with very cold surfaces will still allow for rain to freeze on those cold surfaces, even if the air temperature is up at 33 or 34 degrees. Given the spread we're seeing with the models, NBM QPF is woefully underdone. We could easily a very narrow strip of QPF nearing 0.5" and if that falls as all freezing rain, the potential for over 0.25" of icing and the possibility for an ice storm warning is there. Hopefully the spread in the models comes down some overnight, but we will need another winter headline Monday night to cover this freezing rain threat, wherever it ends up.

After Monday night, we get a good January thaw Tuesday through Thursday, when highs in the 40s will be possible along and southwest of the upper MN River Valley, where a very thin snow cover exists. The one day that could see temperatures run away a bit everywhere is Wednesday. If we can somehow pull off not being covered by stratus on Wednesday, then pretty much everyone will have a shot at topping 40.

Finally, attention turns to the end of this forecast period and the potential for heavy snow Saturday. Mean EPS MSLP shows a fairly classic Panhandle hook storm track, with a surface low going from the TX Panhandle to the upper Great Lakes Friday through the weekend. Northwest of the low track there will be a band of heavy snow, with double digit snow accumulations possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. There's still quite a bit of spread with how far east/west this low tracks as this southern stream wave will be merging with a northern stream wave moving along the Canadian border. Exactly how this phasing happens will determine whether we see a heavy dump of snow or absolutely nothing. Looking at EPS QPF probabilities, it's eastern MN and western WI that have the greatest chance of seeing some meaningful snow locally at this stage of the forecast. At this point, this is still in a keep a close eye on category. It should be noted that with our Blizzard back on December 28th, it wasn't until two days before the event that models started locking in on the true extent of phasing that would happen, so we're probably looking at Wednesday or Thursday before you can confidently start trotting forecast snowfall maps out there.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Ceilings are IFR/MVFR across west central Minnesota (AXN and STC), with clear skies/VFR at MKT and RWF as the stratus cuts a line across southern Minnesota. IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to build back tonight. Freezing fog is likely to develop late tonight through tomorrow morning at AXN/STC, while MVFR to VFR mist is more likely elsewhere. Once degraded, ceilings to remain steady IFR to LIFR overnight into tomorrow morning, with a few brief improvements to MVFR possible. Longer duration improvement to MVFR is more likely by the end of the period. Just beyond this period is the potential for another FZRA event Monday night.

Wind speeds will continue diminishing this evening with winds becoming light & variable. Southeast winds around 5 kts eventually develop by tomorrow morning.

KMSP...High end MVFR to VFR for the next few hours as MSP sits on the edge of the stratus deck. MVFR/IFR cigs move back after midnight lasting through early morning. Improvements to VFR likely near the end of this period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR/MVFR. Chc -FZRA/-RA. Wind W 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.