textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon & evening.

- Heat & humidity return for Friday into the weekend. Heat Index values around 100 degrees likely.

- Frequent chances for scattered showers & thunderstorms into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 423 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Rain and thunder have begun to move in across the Minnesota/Iowa border early this morning. Latest SPC mesoanalysis showing low- level warm advection and frontogenesis occurring right where convection is currently occurring. So far, these storms have remained sub-severe with only a few personal weather stations recording some perhaps wind gusts up near 40mph. This storms are expected to continue on a ENE'ly track through much the first half of today as warm advection continues northward.

Today's forecast remains muddy. Muddy as in regards to the question of how long this morning "clutter" sticks around. Its been advertised that a second round of thunderstorms is possible this afternoon. The driver of that second round of convection would be a subtle wave that is on the far reaches of an upper- level troughing pattern over the PacNorthwest. This wave feature will then ride the apex of this ridge then then be pulled into another broad troughing pattern currently situated over southern Hudson Bay. Upper- forcing will increase across eastern North Dakota early this afternoon. By then, our AM convection should have cleared east and will allow for redevelopment to occur somewhere over northwestern MN. From here, this is where hi- res guidance solutions diverge. HREF/REFS as an example favor a bowing MCS to sweep southeast. Where as the HRRR, does also create a convective complex but does not look as intense and keeps the rain mainly in northern Minnesota. In order for the sweeping MCS scenario to come to fruition, our environment would require to recover quickly and warm up. Also the line would need to develop and then follow the warm/instability gradient southward. This scenario is what has been driving the SPC's severe weather outlook which has been downgraded from a slight risk to marginal risk for much of central and southern Minnesota.

As we enter Friday into the Labor Day weekend, we will get the hot- and- humid forecast on a stick. Once today's precip episode passes, ridging builds over the next few days and reaches beyond the Canadian border. This will allow for ample moisture and warm air to sit right over MN/WI for the next few days. As of now, Friday appears to be the hottest day, as heat indices will climb into the mid to upper 90s as far north as the I-94 corridor. For those within the Twin Cities metro area, it is possible that a Heat Advisory may be needed for Friday afternoon. As for precip, chances for rain and storms will exist each day thanks to additional waves moving along the ridge in quasi-zonal flow. Still to far out to determine impacts but at least there is hope for some to get a little drought relief. Temperatures will eventually come back to reality by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 708 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

An area of thunderstorms will impact KMSP, KRNH, and KEAU for the first few hours this morning before shifting off to the east. Then expect VFR conditions, but there is a small chance for some scattered showers later this morning into the early afternoon. There is also a non-zero risk for thunder, but confidence was too low to mention in the TAFs.

Later this evening, additional storms are possible at KSTC, KMSP, and KRNH, but confidence is low.

KMSP... Should have some storms around for the first couple of hours early this morning. Then later this morning, there is some agreement that showers and a few storms could redevelop across the Twin Cities area. Later this evening, storms should stay north of MSP, but can't completely rule it out. Overnight into Friday, expect VFR conditions.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Chance -TSRA late. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Chance -TSRA. Wind SSE 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Chance -TSRA. Wind SSE 10G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.