textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widely numerous showers and embedded storms this afternoon and evening. Dangerous lightning and brief heavy rain are the main impacts.

- Temperatures this weekend and into next will hover right around the seasonal average for the middle of August.

- Next round of showers and storms will be on Tuesday.

NEXT WEEK

On Monday, pleasant weather conditions will continue through most of the day with high temperatures in the low 80s and DP temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. For Tuesday, deepening upper level low over Ontario and Hudson Bay will promote increased S/SWrly low level flow with DP temperatures increasing back into the 60s. This coupled with increasing energy aloft will lead to another round of showers and storms on Tuesday. Latest ensemble guidance and guidance from our colleagues at the Weather Prediction Center paint a corridor of 1-2" of rain across southern MN. Being a handful days out, some of the finer details will need to get ironed out. Temperatures through the remainder of the period will hang out in the upper 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A mix of mostly IFR/MVFR to start, with a few sites even in LIFR as light showers, mist, and a bit of fog are present across the area. This initial round is expected to linger until 15-16z before we see at least a 4-5 hour break before another round of -SHRA with a chance for -TSRA arrives around 18z in the west and gradually moves eastwards. CIGS will be rising after the morning -SHRA, but generally remain at least MVFR by the time the 2nd round arrives, with IFR visibility possible within any of the stronger showers. Once the 2nd round of -SHRA/-TSRA is over (generally the end of the prob30 groups within each TAF), we should see CIGS lift to low VFR and begin to scatter out towards the end of the period.

KMSP...Observations have remained dry through the 11z ob, however the office at MPX in Chanhassen has some sputtering light rain showers and radar looks similar to the southwest, so kept some -SHRA within a TEMPO group as similar conditions are possible at MSP, though not enough to be prevailing. The 2nd round of -SHRA with a chance for -TSRA is more likely, with a scattered line of showers moving across the area arriving roughly 21z and ending around 01z. We scatter out afterwards, but intermittent low VFR with a chance for MVFR lingers through the end of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SW 5-10kts. TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts. WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.