textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain lingers overnight into tomorrow morning.

- Extended stretch of dry weather expected into mid-November.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend through most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Gloomy wet November weather continues for a third day today as a sub-1000 mb low continues remains stalled out as it occludes directly over the area. The low will slowly move off to the east into the Great Lakes overnight into tomorrow along with the lingering light rain that we've seen through out today. Widespread cloud cover will still stick around along with cooler temperatures as northwest flow keeps temperatures in the 40s through the day tomorrow. Clouds will eventually clear out Friday morning as drier air filters into the region from the northwest. We could see widespread sub-freezing temperatures Friday morning if the clouds are able to clear out during the overnight hours, but AI-guidance & the latest high-resilution guidance trends suggests we'll probably stay cloudy & warmer through the night.

Friday starts an extended stretch of dry weather as a number of high pressure systems generally dominate the weather regime over the Upper Midwest & eastern CONUS as a whole. AI & physical ensemble guidance suggests we have little chance of any appreciable rainfall over the next two weeks, with maybe a weak clipper giving us a quick hit of light rain for the middle of next week. Temperatures will be above-normal through the period, with the warmest weather coming early next week as upper-level ridging builds over the central US & ensemble guidance shows temperature anomalies of 10-15 F above normal. For context, normal temperatures this time of November are in the the upper 40s for highs & low 30s for lows. Temperatures dip a bit later in the week but return to well- above normal values next weekend through mid- November as pronounced ridging looks to rebuild over the central CONUS.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Light rain and associated visibility reductions will continue to gradually end (and improve) from west to east through the night. Widespread IFR to low MVFR conditions are captured on surface observations and will persist through daybreak, before an improvement to widespread MVFR conditions with ceilings between 1-2k feet for much of Thursday. Breezy northerly winds will gust between 20-25kts during the first half of the day. Latest guidance is trending more pessimistic with the erosion of MVFR stratus Thursday night.

KMSP...Degraded conditions persist through the first portion of the 6z TAF period. Drier conditions will arrive by the morning push with ceilings rising to MVFR. Prolonged period of MVFR stratus to follow through the remainder of the period. Breezy northerly winds gust up to 25kts Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.