textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through the next week.

- Next chances for rain not in the forecast until next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

High pressure this afternoon is sliding into Arkansas, bringing to an end our brief foray into cooler October weather. Breezy southwest winds have developed, with temperatures this afternoon returning to near normal levels after a chilly start to the day, which saw our first widespread freeze of the season outside of the Twin Cities urban core. MSP got down to 36 this morning, the first time MSP has dipped below 40 this fall, tying 1931 for the latest first trip below 40 in the fall on record.

For the rest of the week, we get into a "stuck" weather pattern. The trough currently over the east coast will develop into a cut-off low in the western Atlantic as ridge builds over the top of it from the Plains to New England. This ridge will push the northern stream back north into Canada, allowing a very mild airmass to overspread the CONUS east of the Rockies. We'll have highs in the 60s Monday and Tuesday, but from Wednesday into next weekend, highs in the 70s will become rather common. Fortunately, these warmer temperatures will come with dewpoints in the 50s, which will keep us front having any significant fire weather concerns. The next chance rain has now pushed off to next weekend, when a weakening cold front is forecast to make a run into the ridge. Given the forcing looks week and the antecedent airmass is warm and dry, I wouldn't count on these rain chances remaining in the forecast as next weekend moves into the 5 days or less period.

Finally, through the first half of October, the average temperature at MSP was 60 degrees. A full 7 degrees warmer than normal and 0.8 degrees warmer than 1947, the current warmest October on record. We're now getting into the "cold half" of October, which should start chipping away at that average temperature, but there's very little in the way of cold air highlighted by the ensembles for the rest of the month and it may be tough for us to chip away at our lead enough to not finish in the top spot for warmest October on record. Something to watch over the next couple of weeks.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

A few passing high clouds occasionally, otherwise clear skies and VFR will continue. Occasional southerly wind gusts overnight will become more common mid morning. Kept LLWS in the TAFs through early/mid morning with 45 kts around 1.5 kft.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SSE 10G20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.