textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow with breezy northwest winds following a frontal passage overnight tonight.

- A few showers are possible tonight, but better chances for rain exist towards the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

If you need a reason to smile on this Monday, know that we have (very, very likely) seen the last of below freezing temperatures for the season! Most places bottomed out in the low 30s this morning and a few locales did get down into the mid to upper 20s. Looking back at climate records, this is around the average date of the last freeze for EAU and STC (May 8th and 9th respectively). MSP has evaded the freezing temperatures for the last few days, but our chilly mornings last week were about a week later than average (April 28th). Some high clouds ahead of an approaching system have overspread much of the region this afternoon, but temperatures have still warmed 5 to 10 degrees from this time yesterday. A low tracking along the International Border has a few radar returns showing up across the Dakotas, but surface obs indicate that precip is not reaching the ground. 18z soundings from BIS and ABR are quite dry, so this is not surprising. Precip chances are expected to increase across the region through this evening as southerly flow continues to advect better moisture northward. Until then, RH values are sitting in the teens and 20s across southern and western Minnesota this afternoon. Winds are relatively light, but did issue an SPS through this evening for elevated fire weather concerns. PoPs increase for central Minnesota and western Wisconsin after midnight tonight and continue into early Tuesday as the front slides through. QPF amounts are only expected to be on the order of a trace to a few hundredths.

This will be little help when it comes to fire weather conditions tomorrow, as northwest winds behind this system will become quite gusty. RH values should be running a little higher than today, but in coordination with our neighboring offices and MNICS, have issued a Red Flag Warning for much of southwestern Minnesota tomorrow. Heading into midweek, temperatures will continue to warm with widespread upper 70s/low 80s by Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday into Friday and again late in the weekend as the pattern looks to turn more active.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR but breezy through the period, with -SHRA likely over WI sites late tonight. FEW to SCT skies will become BKN as a cold front approaches overnight. 40kt LLWS is likely along with a potential for rain at STC and MSP for a short period between 05 to 10z. Higher confidence in seeing rain across WI sites where TEMPOs for SHRA are present between 6 to 12z Tuesday morning. Once the front passes, winds will shift from S/SE to NW and remain breezy for the rest of the period. Sustained winds will range between 15-25kts with gusts approaching 25-35kts.

KMSP...Maintained mentions of 40kt LLWS and PROB30 -SHRA between 6-10z tonight as a cold front moves through. There is a low chance for -TSRA in this same period (10-20%), but left out of TAF at this time. Gusty southerly winds will continue to increase overnight, with gusts to 25kts possible by 6Z. After the cold front passes around 10-13Z, winds will shift from S/SE to NW and become breezier yet, with gusts to 30kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-20G30 kts. FRI...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA/MVFR. Wind S to NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Blue Earth- Brown-Chippewa-Faribault-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin- McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sibley- Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.