textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A long duration snow event continues through early Sunday morning. Accumulating snow is expected, with the heaviest amounts of 6-10" across far southern Minnesota.

- Well-below normal temperatures arrive after the snow on Sunday and persist through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Light snow continues to make its way slowly to the east early this morning with latest reflectivity showing the snow line paralleling the I-94 corridor. Temperatures north and east of the snow band are currently in the upper teens whereas south and west are in the lower 20s as snow falls in those locations. Overall, the forecast remains unchanged. However, one feature of note is a 1032mb surface high located along the MN/Manitoba border that is advecting drier air southward. This high will slowly meander along the Int'l border through the morning hours today before diminishing before midday. This importance of this feature is that it has help delay the snowfall arrival and forward progression for some areas across south- central MN, which in turn could lower forecasted snow amounts. This includes the Twin Cities metro and western Wisconsin. The parent surface low pressure which is driving this event will make its way across Missouri and eventually encroach on Lake Michigan by tonight. What this means for us locally is despite the distant proximity of this low's track, plentiful isentropic ascent extends well out ahead and northeast of this feature. Therefore, most areas beginning around daybreak should expect to see an increase of light snow. As mentioned in previous discussions, the prolonged duration of light snow today will result in accumulating light powdery snow, not heavy snowfall rates. Snowfall rates for this system continue to appear on the lighter side overall with rates nearing a half-inch per hour. Snowfall accumulation forecasts remain unchanged with the highest totals focused across far southern MN where 6-10" are possible. Locations farther north, including the Twin Cities metro, may see closer to the range of 2-5" however it is important to note that the gradient of accumulations once again appears to cut the metro in half along the I-94 corridor. Therefore, those in the north metro have a much higher chance of seeing lower- end snowfall totals as compared who live south of I-494.

Another element to note is that winds become breezy this afternoon into tonight. Wind gusts between 20-30 mph will be common for most southern MN and western WI, however a few gusts nearing 35mph will be possible along the I-90 corridor which could make for stretches of blowing snow and reduced visibilities at times.

Once today's system departs, surface high pressure quickly fills in from our northwest and dives as far south as the southeastern Missouri Valley. A colder airmass arrives with this feature as Sunday's forecast highs will mainly range in the teens west of I-35, and the teens again for the entire coverage area on Monday. Wind chills these mornings will range a few degrees above or below zero. Temps will fluctuate throughout the week as a couple of clipper systems proceed across the Northern Plains, particularly Tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday night into Friday. Neither system looks overly impressive at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The biggest changes to this TAF period were: 1. Delay the onset of snow for eastern MN and WI terminals by a couple of hours. 2. Lower cigs, especially over southern MN and EAU, a few hundred feet during Saturday afternoon and evening such that IFR cigs are more likely. Still expecting heaviest snowfall rates to start over the southern half of MN by mid to late Saturday morning through the afternoon (with WI terminals being delayed 2-3 hours). Visibilities should drop to 1/2 mile at their lowest for RWF and MKT while other terminals should bounce between 3/4 and 1 1/2 mile. Snow should gradually end over western MN Saturday evening. Easterly winds will slowly turn counter-clockwise to northerly by Saturday evening with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots. Gusts will reach 20-25 knots, particularly over southern MN during the afternoon and evening hours.

KMSP...Delayed onset of prevailing snow until 10Z Saturday. Expecting the worst conditions mid-Saturday afternoon where visibilities could drop under 1 mile while cigs fall to near 800 feet. Cigs and visibilities should slowly improve Saturday evening with VFR conditions likely late Saturday night as snow ends and clouds lift. Northeasterly winds will gust to near 20 knots throughout Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Carver- Chippewa-Dakota-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod- Meeker-Ramsey-Renville-Scott-Sibley-Swift-Washington- Wright-Yellow Medicine. Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for Blue Earth- Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Steele- Waseca-Watonwan. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for Goodhue-Le Sueur-Rice. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.