textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record temperatures in the 80s on Saturday.

- Hot and windy conditions on Saturday could lead to fire weather concerns, especially in western Minnesota.

- Cooler next week with rain chances increasing Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Early this morning storms continue to occur to our south across Iowa, but storm motions and the overall forcing driving these storms will keep them well to our south. Today will see the start of the main push of the WAA in the afternoon/evening. This means right as the diurnal temperatures would normally start to fall this WAA will counteract this somewhat. This strong flow is tied to a low moving near the international border region around the AB/SK/MT/ND area. This is what gives us the flow driving this WAA. We will see the peak of this WAA on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures of 20 to 25 degrees C. This very warm air aloft will likely make Saturday start out with a temperature inversion which will limit wind potential early. This will not last though as the atmosphere warms during the day and mixing becomes favored. By afternoon wind gusts up around 40 mph will be possible, most likely along the Buffalo Ridge. With respect to fire weather, winds are a concern and so are the near record high temperatures. What will decide how much of a fire risk we get will be RHs, as current dew points in the NBM make this look borderline. However NBM often does not do well in these kind of days and there is a decent chance that the HRRR is closer to reality and this would suggest western Minnesota falling into the mid to upper 20s for RH.

The WAA continues into Sunday with another much above normal day expected. It will be late Sunday into Monday when we see a cold front, associated with the low near the international border, moves across the Upper Midwest and bring this abnormal warmth to an end. The actual frontal passage won't take a day and a half, there just remains some spread in the timing of this passage in guidance. Currently only low PoPs with this frontal passage as there is little upper level support. Even in the guidance that shows rain with this front it is only a few hundredths due this weaker forcing setup and questionable low level moisture. After a weekend with highs in the 80s the post-frontal air mass will support near normal highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Another frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday will give us our best chance for rain over the next week and another drop in temperatures. Unlike the early week frontal passage this one has ample upper level support with a rather pronounced trough moving across CONUS. This shows much stronger support in global ensembles, compared to Monday, with a strong signal. There are even members with a more soaking rain of a half inch or more. Currently the stronger signal remains to our northwest, but some additional shifts in track at this range is possible. Behind this front, high will likely only be in the lower to mid 50s on Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

There are no major changes to the forecast, with VFR conditions expected through the entire period. Mostly high level clouds are expected, although there are already low-mid level stratocumulus clouds along the northeastward-advancing warm front over southeast MN and western WI. There is low confidence for how far west these clouds will spread, and how low cigs will drop. Current extent of the clouds have them tucked in the very southeastern portion of MN, with cloud bases between 6000-8000 feet. We expect these to drop between 3500-6000 feet as they lift northeast, and then eventually dissipate tonight.

Southeasterly winds will become breezy today, with gusts to 20 kts this afternoon. By tomorrow, they will shift more southerly and become strong, with gusts exceeding 30 kts for most locations after 18z.

KMSP...There is low confidence on how widespread clouds will become this afternoon and evening, but most likely develop in that 5000-6000 range.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts. MON...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NNW 10G20kts. TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.