textproduct: Twin Cities

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A mixed bag of wintry precipitation continues to make its way east into Minnesota this afternoon. Radar imagery shows the line of winter weather extending from Little Falls down through the TC Metro to near Red Wing. Latest mesoscale analysis showing that 850-700mb forcing is lagging a bit still near MN/Dakotas border, however it is still expected that this region of mid- level forcing will make its way east over the next several hours and produce heavy snowfall rates in excess of 1"/hr along and north of the I-94 corridor. Using the latest trends in forecast guidance, another nudge south was made to snowfall amounts leaving areas mainly along the I-94 corridor including the TC metro in the 2-4 inch range whereas areas north and east of the I-94 corridor could see up to 5-7 inches.

Farther to the southwest of the main snowfall region is the warm sector of this system which is located over western and southern MN. Concerns for a short 2 to 4hr period continue for a region of freezing rain. Warm advection this afternoon will raise temperatures into the mid 30s especially south of the MN River Valley and along the Buffalo Ridge which aligns with freezing rain is already being reported in those areas. Given where confidence was strongest for warm advection reach, adjusted forecast mentions of freezing precip east towards a line that extends west from Grant County in western MN down through Filmore County in southeastern Minnesota. The main precip shield clears southern Minnesota this evening, which then provides a short lull of mainly drizzle or freezing drizzle and then transitions to all snow overnight. Overall ice accumulations of a light glaze can be expected. the next "segment" of this system that follows quickly in tow of our snow/freezing rain mentions is the increased wind speeds across the area. As of now, winds along and north of the I-94 corridor will be breezy with 30-35mph wind gusts however in areas south and west of the MN River Valley, are expected to reach 50 to 55 mph overnight. These winds, combined with falling snow will lead to rapid reductions in visibility, thus went with a strongly worded Winter Weather Advisory for southwestern Minnesota starting tonight until Wednesday morning. Regardless, gusty winds, blowing snow, and recently falling freezing precipitation will make for difficult travel conditions this evening through tonight. So try to avoid being out on the roads if possible or allow for extra travel time.

Most snowfall is expected to end Wednesday around sunrise, perhaps a band or two of deformation snow may develop on the back side the departing low mid-Wednesday morning however additional accumulation from that episode of snow would amount to less than a half-inch. Gusty winds will also weaken as our previous low distances itself away from the northern plains. Forecast highs Wednesday into the lower 20s Wednesday and then the teens on Thursday. Another system does encroach on the northern plains Thursday into Friday however this one looking much less impressive than today's system. Luckily, the p-type for this event favors all snow with accumulations up to an inch or two across southern Minnesota.

As we enter the weekend, the forecast turns cold. Forecast highs Saturday and Sunday will range a degree or two above or below zero with wind chills ranging well below zero. Cold weather advisory headlines may potentially be needed as wind chills reach -25 to -30 below zero Saturday Night. As we enter next week, the cold blast looks to be short lived as h850 5-Day Temp Anomalies jump right back up to 10-15 degrees above normal hinting that a potential winter warm-up could be on the horizon by that time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Main swath of precip has just about diminished and shifted east, but now the backside secondary swath of precip is developing over central MN and overall dropping southward across MN/WI at initialization. The dry slot is quite evident in radar imagery and also in sfc obs, which have a bunch of -FZDZ reports. But as the atmosphere replenishes sufficient moisture, the swath of mainly -SN will drop through from initialization through about 10z-12z, with visibilities down as low as 1-2sm and ceilings into IFR. Ceilings will generally run MVFR for much of tomorrow, with VFR conditions quite viable during Wednesday evening. The biggest issue may well be winds as they are currently shifting to NW with the passage of the main low. Speeds will also appreciably increase to near 20G35kts, with higher speeds already being reported in far western MN. Speeds will diminish late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

KMSP...Light FZDZ at the start will quickly transition to -SN as the swath of precip arrives from the north. Rates will be rather light with this next batch of snow, nothing expected over 0.5 in/hr, if that much, as only around an inch total of additional accumulation is expected. Snow will wane prior to sunrise, but the increase in winds may result in some blowing snow visibility issues. Strong NW winds will persist throughout this TAF set, and there is a small chance of some flurries or snow showers midday Wednesday, but these will be of little consequence if they occur at all. Improving conditions expected during Wednesday afternoon, with VFR conditions likely Wednesday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault- Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Waseca-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Benton- Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne-Todd- Washington. WI...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Pepin- Pierce.