textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A quick burst of snow this evening across portions of eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Accumulations up to 1 to 3".

- Periods of light snow Friday into Friday night. Additional accumulations up to an inch possible.

- Gusty winds will combine with falling snow to cause low visibility from blowing snow, especially in open areas. Hazardous travel is expected.

- Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for W & S MN for Friday's blowing snow/hazardous weather.

UPDATE

Issued at 906 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Latest radar and surface observations have been slow to report precipitation this evening, with the majority of the light snow staying across northwest Minnesota. As of 9PM, only areas near Kanabec and northern Chisago counties have reported snow so far. Although there is plenty of forcing with this low pressure system, our 00z sounding and water vapor satellite imagery reveal a deep layer of dry air aloft as well as a shallower layer near the surface. We should still begin to saturate as the vorticity lobe pivots southeast, though the dry air is acting to slow that process down. The latest hi-res guidance have picked up on this slower development of snow across the region and are trending towards snowfall amounts on the lower end of the forecast for tonight (only around an inch or less). At the same time, there has been an uptick in drizzle and light rain reports across southwestern MN. With surface temperatures near freezing, some slick spots are possible for any elevated or untreated surfaces.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A rather busy stretch of weather is in store for us across the Upper Midwest. Current radar highlights a band of precipitation stretching from northeast Minnesota northward into Canada. This band of snow is associated with a sfc warm front that moves across MN & WI this afternoon. This frontal passage will be dry for most of us but a few flurries may make it to the surface in W WI. The culprit is a layer of extremely dry air in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere that was measured on the 12Z MPX sounding. The radar will show returns overhead at 8 to 10kft+ where it is technically snowing, but the snow will evaporate as it falls through the dry air layer. Warmer temperatures will arrive this afternoon and our high temperature likely occurs late this evening as temps surge into the upper 20s to mid 30s. This will likely be the last above freezing temperature for the next 7+ days as much colder air builds in this weekend.

Despite being less than 24 hours out, the snow forecast for this evening into Friday morning remains fluid with subtle, but important shifts over the past 12 hours. Another band of snow that is currently upstream over the Dakotas & southern Manitoba will track into W MN this evening and into E MN & W WI tonight. This feature is tied to the ULL & it's associated strong vorticity advection, acting as the primary forcing for a burst of snow that could lead to slick travel in the Metro late this evening/overnight. It'll be a quick moving hit of snow, likely 2 to 5 hours, but accumulations of 1 to 3" are possible by the time the snow tapers off overnight. Winds will ramp up behind it and begin to turn to the northwest. Gusts up to 35 mph will be likely, especially in W MN. Temperatures will begin to fall, a trend that'll continue throughout Friday. A Winter Weather Advisory was considered to cover this burst of snow but ultimately decided against it given the timing & level of potential impacts forecast for this evening. That being said, there is still potential for impacts to the Friday morning commute so please plan accordingly.

The lull of snow ends around sunrise Friday morning as another burst of snow will move into the region. For those of us in the Twin Cities, southern MN, or western WI: temperatures Friday morning will be in the 20s and fall into the single digits by the afternoon. Wind chill temperatures will be in the single digits below zero to teens below zero Friday afternoon across the entire area. Please prepare for that cold push of Arctic air when getting ready to go to work or send the kids to school. Snow showers will continue throughout much of Friday. The subtle lift & saturated DGZ's on forecast soundings would support on and off snow showers under the CAA within the cyclonic flow of the ULL. There is potential for stronger snow showers that could lead to bursts of heavy snow & near-zero visibility. This will set the table for a stretch of hazardous winter weather, particularly in W & S MN, where the combination of 40-50 mph wind gusts & numerous snow showers & blowing snow will lead to low visibility and slick travel conditions. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued across W & S MN that goes into effect tonight at midnight through 6pm Friday evening. Friday's snow accumulations should be around an inch or so. There is fear that we'll see near-white out visibilities in those counties under a Winter Weather Advisory. If those conditions verify and/or are worse than forecast a short fuse upgrade could be warranted. Snow showers taper off Friday evening/night behind the Arctic front. Much colder air will settle in over the weekend with highs in the single digits and lows below zero. A brief warm up occurs Sunday with highs in the mid teens, but another quick moving clipper system is to thank. Current forecast would support the potential for another half inch to an inch of snow for Sunday's clipper and behind that will likely be up there for coldest air of the season. There will be potential for Cold Weather advisories this weekend into early next week given the very cold wind chill temperatures. Highs will struggle to warm above zero on Monday for example. The cold is here to stay with highs and lows below normal through the end of the forecast period & likely remainder of January. Additional clipper systems will move across the region that could bring additional light snow chances next week but there is no sign of any larger systems as the storm track remains suppressed just to the south.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Regional radar and satellite show an area of increased moisture pushing southeaster from the Dakotas and northwestern MN to start the TAF period. In general, ground observation confirm that the snow is more intermittent, with only a few pockets of visibilities impacts at this time. We expect the precipitation shield to fill in more tonight as it slides across the southern half of Minnesota and into Wisconsin. At the same time, MVFR cigs will become more widespread, with the potential for briefs periods of IFR associated with any of the stronger bursts of snow that occur tonight. There may be a lull in precipitation for a few hours before more scattered snow showers develop Friday morning and persist through much of the day. Conditions may change frequently during the day due to the showery setup of this event. Although accumulations will be light, the combination of strong winds with falling snow may result in periodic reductions in visibility. Have capped vis reductions to 2SM at this time due to high variability and low confidence in the exact location of showers, though it is likely that the worst conditions could drop to 1/2SM or less.

KMSP...Main change to the forecast was adjusting the arrival of the snow back about an hour to 03z. Current conditions favor more intermittent impacts from snow tonight, so have leaned on the tempo group for potential IFR conditions through around 07z. Forecast soundings show us drying out for a few hours until snow showers develop Friday morning. On and off showers may continue through Friday evening, but likely move east by early Saturday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR likely. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SUN...VFR likely. Chc MVFR/-SHSN. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts becoming NW. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for Blue Earth- Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood- Renville-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca- Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.