textproduct: Twin Cities
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday night. Best chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is this evening, focused across western Minnesota.
- Quiet weather returns for the second half of the week with near-normal temperatures and only low rain chances Thursday into Friday.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
Thereafter, the flattened upper level high pressure over southern half of CONUS will shift westward over the southern Rockies and Four Corners Region. This will induce more amplified NW flow aloft across MN through the second half of the week. Quiet and fair weather conditions will resume with low-end chances of rain Thursday afternoon/evening and into Friday as well. Temperatures through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend will hover around 80 degrees.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
The start of the period remains relatively quiet with some MVFR visibility lingering in western WI set to dissipate by the first hour, followed by high clouds in FEW250 with some fair weather FEW050 cumulus after 17-18z. The difficult part of the forecast begins around 21-22z when -TSRA chances arrive in western MN for AXN/RWF, however high-res guidance has struggled to capture the timing of the front and therefore best chance for storms. As such, went with some fairly broad prob30 groups that we will hopefully be able to narrow the window with more confidence as we get a bit closer with more data coming in, but expect at least a scattered line of showers and storms to be moving across the entire area from west to east. Winds will become 6-8kts from 240-270 ahead of the front, becoming light and variable afterwards but favoring 300-330.
KMSP...Unfortunately confidence remains fairly low in what is actually going to arrive tonight, with -TSRA expected but the exact timing and also strength uncertain. High res guidance is all over the place with no clear consensus, so kept the prob30 group inherited from the 06z TAF going.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5kts. THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SW 5kts. FRI...VFR, chc pm -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None. WI...None.
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