textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cooler day today, but a warming trend will continue through the week with 50s likely by midweek.

- Next chance for light precipitation Tuesday, with a bigger event possible by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The cold air mass that moved in Friday night will continue to be over us Sunday morning. Despite this cold airmass cloud cover has helped prevent the temperatures from falling over much of the area this morning. Where there have been breaks in the clouds, especially in the areas with fresh snow, temperatures have fallen quickly down into the single digits above zero. The overall flow will shift this airmass to the east today making today the first day of the warmup this week. It will take a while for this air to move out, so while today will be warmer than yesterday, it won't be much warmer. Thus, highs are expected to remain below normal today in the 20s. High pressure over the western Great Lakes today should allow for fair weather and clearing skies.

Monday will see the warm air advection ramp up and with that temperatures will rise back above freezing and above normal. This trend will continue Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday with each day getting a little warmer than the last with highs in the 50s likely. Lows even look above normal and eventually above freezing, such that the recent snow across southern Minnesota should melt quickly once this warmup begins. On Tuesday a low will track across the central plains into the mid Mississippi region to our south. The northern extent of this lift could get into parts of southern Minnesota. This far from the main low QPF across the ensembles looks low. Also temperatures look to stay at or above freezing during this time so it will likely either fall as rain or the light snow will mostly melt on contact on non-snowpack covered surfaces.

Looking ahead to the end of the week is where it gets more interesting. Mid to late week a trough develops across the western CONUS. When and where this trough starts to eject to the east varies between the main global models. Less of a spread compared to a few days ago, but temporal and spatial spread remains between these models. Across the global ensemble systems this spread also remains across membership. In general Friday looks to be the best chance in this more active upper level pattern for a larger system in the Upper Midwest. This is even apparent in the NBM where likely PoPs have been introduced on Friday, which is not common in a blend this far out. Looking past the physical models the AIFS, which has done well of the placement of forcing in recent systems, keeps the best chances to our south over Iowa. Also across most guidance, where precipitation appears most likely rain is the predominate precipitation type. In summary expect a more active end of the week, but spread remains both spatially and temporally such that details are uncertain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Light and variable winds this period under VFR ceilings. Little to no weather impact to aviation expected.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts. TUE...MVFR. Chc MVFR/-SN early. Wind VRB 5 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.