textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and windy Saturday with areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility, particularly in western MN.

- Another Clipper system will bring light snow Sunday. Very strong winds will follow the system with gusts of 35-45 MPH possible across MN Sunday afternoon and evening. This could lead to more blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

- Wind chills forecast to fall into the 20s to lower 30s below zero Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Cold with small chances of snow throughout next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Light snow continues early this morning across much of the area, stemming from a secondary mid-level low over northern IA. The snow has continued to be very fluffy, owing to the cold temperatures and the deep (to almost double) DGZ evident in the 00Z MPX RAOB. 2.1" has be observed at our office in Chanhassen at a 30:1 SLR! Meanwhile, the MSP Airport has received an inch less, which is due to some mesoscale banding that primarily affected the west metro. Even while the mid-level low moves southeast, light snow will continue well through this morning and possibly into this afternoon, particularly in our southern and eastern counties. Forecast soundings show a layer of stubborn low-level stratus within the DGZ lasting through this afternoon. Thus, off and on flurries are possible into this evening. Highs today will only reach the single digits in western MN while teens are expected in eastern MN and western WI. With northwesterly winds remaining feisty in western MN (gusts of 30-35 MPH) into this afternoon, wind chills will struggle to rise above -15 today. Winds will finally slow late this afternoon and remain light through tonight as lows fall to within plus or minus 5 degrees of zero.

Chances for light snow begin in western MN early Sunday morning as our next clipper arrives. This system will move pretty quickly from northwest to southeast across the area with snow becoming more certain and widespread in eastern MN and western WI after sunrise and finishing up by Sunday evening. Snowfall amounts with this system will be similar to Friday's - about 1" to possibly 2". The bigger concern is the strong LLJ that is forecast to immediately follow the clipper. Deterministic models show a 40-50 knot northerly LLJ arriving over the Northern Plains by Sunday afternoon. Currently have wind gusts of 35-45 MPH forecast across MN (highest gusts in western MN) the afternoon into the evening, with values slowly tapering off during Sunday night. The fluffy 1-3" of snow that fell Friday and the another 1-2" possible Sunday combined with the strong winds looks to lead to blowing and drifting snow with areas of reduced visibility (possibly significant). There is a good chance that a Winter Weather Advisory will be needed for the blowing snow, particularly across western MN, but have opted to hold off on headlines for now. CAA will cause lows Sunday night to fall to -5 to -10 and with still very breezy winds area-wide, wind chill values of -20 to -30 are forecast. This would necessitate a Cold Weather Advisory for at least a good portion (if not all) of our CWA Sunday night into Monday morning.

Monday looks dry with highs only warming into the single digits. But northwesterly winds gusting to near 20 MPH should mean wind chill values struggle to rise above -10 Monday afternoon. Temperatures will moderate a bit Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the teens to lower 20s. But, forecast models show continued northwesterly flow while a very cold, arctic air mass settles over south-central Canada for most of next week. Any impulses within the northwesterly flow (clipper systems) would bring a chance of light snow followed by a shot of the cold arctic air. However, model agreement really deteriorates after Tuesday night; NBM sour even on the Tuesday night clipper chance with only 20-40% PoPs. From a synoptic pattern standpoint, it seems like we will not be seeing any chances for a significant winter system through at least next week. Perhaps our the pattern changes as we progress but the end of January may end up just being cold and quiet.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The ongoing MVFR/IFR visibility due mainly to BLSN at this point will gradually improve as winds slowly weaken throughout the period, with -SN ending within the first few hours for the final few locations. The strongest wind gusts of 30-35kts in RWF/AXN will be the most likely locations to see intermittent IFR due to reduced visibility from BLSN, with conditions gradually improving as winds drop back. A wind shift will occur as the speeds weaken, from 300-330 for most of the period towards 240-270 by the end. CIGS will generally lift to VFR, but could straddle MVFR as we expect to see BKN/OVC skies for the entire period. -SN is possible for AXN/STC/RWF/MSP later in the period, arriving for the rest of the sites after the period ends.

KMSP...Lingering MVFR impacts to visibility should improve by 14-15z with VFR expected for just under 24 hours as another round of -SN looks to arrive by 11-12z Sunday. As -SN arrives, MVFR will become IFR with stronger -SN rates towards the tail end of the period. There was enough confidence to place -SN within a prevailing line as opposed to a TEMPO or PROB30 although small changes to the timing are probable within the next few TAF cycles.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Winds W 5-10kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SN/MVFR late. Wind S to NW 5kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.