textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Calm weather today through much of the day tomorrow.

- A more active period starts Friday night and continues into next week.

- Temperatures generally above normal, with highs in the 80s, over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Today and Tomorrow... High pressure will remain overhead today and into the daytime tomorrow. This will keep skies clear to mostly clear with light winds. The main chance for clouds today will be diurnal cumulus in the afternoon into early evening. Little change in the airmass, so temperatures today should be similar to yesterday. Tomorrow looks to be slightly warmer as 850 mb winds shift to the southwest providing some slight WAA. The other side of this high pressure will allow for patchy fog both this morning and tomorrow morning with the best chances in the usual low lying areas and near bodies of water.

Tomorrow night into the Weekend... Friday night looks to be the start of a more active period as we look to have multiple shortwaves move through the Upper Midwest. Multiple chances for rain sounds like what we need after how dry it has been right? Unfortunately this does still looks to be the typical hit and miss convective driven kind of rain rather than a large scale synoptic rain event like we had in late July. The forecast soundings currently look like they could support some thunderstorms, but instability is light and skinny. So strong to severe storms do not appear likely at this time. This is reflected in the SPC outlook which has us in general thunder for both Friday and Saturday. Overall through Friday night into Saturday does look like the stormier half of the weekend based on ensemble guidance as there is much greater spread for Sunday. Heat also does look to ramp up on Sunday with highs more likely in the mid to upper 80s. So if you have outdoor plans for this upcoming late summer weekend make sure to have a way to keep an eye on the weather due to the thunderstorm chances, especially on Saturday.

Next Week... The more progressive upper level pattern continues into next week with additional shortwaves expected. There is agreement between the deterministic models in this broad pattern, but when we get to specifics there is much more spread. In the ensembles for the global model systems, the QPF forecast is widely scattered throughout the week. This has left NBM with scattered 30 or lower PoPs almost every day. So safe to say, we will need to get closer to next week before we have a better idea of which days start to see more clustering among ensemble membership. On a temperature front we have the jet stream on top of or north of us over this period. This will help to keep us in warmer flow and keep high temperatures in the 80s. This is notable as normal high temperatures start the week in the the upper 70s and fall to the mid 70s by Labor Day Weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR with light winds and clear to mostly clear skies. Few if any weather impacts to aviation. Main item to keep an eye on will be fog chances. They were not high enough to add to the TAF, but light winds and clear skies are a good setup for fog and if temperatures can cool enough some patchy fog could occur at some of the more common fog spots like the WI terminals.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Chc -TSRA late night. Wind SW 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Chc AM -TSRA. Wind S 10-15G20 kts. SUN...VFR. Chc evening/night -TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.