textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Expecting a mostly dry cold frontal passage on Monday with low (<20%) chances for rain.

- Cooler temperatures mid week behind the front with frost/freeze each morning until a late week warm up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Today's clear skies have allowed temperatures to warm quickly. This has dropped RHs and allow for mixing that has increased winds. These conditions will provide for elevated fire weather mainly across western Minnesota this afternoon. As stated in the past discussion this risk is elevated, and not higher, as the green up is getting pretty far along which limits the availability of fuels for fire. Warm air advection overnight should limit the radiational cooling and keep lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Monday will see a cold frontal passage that will be the main driver of the weather pattern for this next week. Persistent low level dry air will be the main impediment to rain on Monday. High resolution soundings show a stout dry layer in the lower atmosphere, which means virga will be more likely than rain at the surface. Currently it looks more like what we saw on Saturday evening with maybe just a few drops making it through. The HREF PMM has no QPF for us and even the model max only has very light QPF, mainly in central Minnesota. Areas to our north across northern Minnesota and to our south across Iowa have better chance for rain due to greater low level saturation as the front transits across those areas.

Cold air advection behind Monday's front and generally high surface pressure moving in will make the main impact for the remainder of the week temperatures. Cool morning temperatures will favor frost Tuesday to Thursday mornings. The coldest morning currently looks to be Wednesday morning when a more widespread freeze is possible. By late week the pattern shifts to more neutral temperatures before warm air advection looks to return next weekend. Long range models suggest that this week's cool down will likely be the end of the frost season with warmer temperatures favored for the rest of the month.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR is expected for all locations throughout the period, with the primary concern being shifting gusty winds in addition to a period of LLWS. Winds should primarily range from 310-350 with speeds of 10-15G20-25kts through 00z, with gusts falling off for a brief period before returning after 12z with winds later in the period increasing to G30kts. A low level jet will be sliding across the region from northwest to southeast with a 4-6 hour period of LLWS as a result with a direction near 240. LLWS ends after 14-15z as the low level jet moves off and winds aloft weaken.

KMSP...The period for LLWS was tightened slightly due to greater guidance consensus in the most likely period. Besides this, gusts from 20-25kts are possible through 00z before tapering off, returning after 08z as the low level jet slides through. The strongest gusts could reach 25-30kts after 18z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.