textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Prolonged heat wave Sunday through much of next week with daily highs in the 90s along with max heat index values near 100 degrees.

- Little chance for precipitation this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

It's a warm one today with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, but an extended heat wave begins tomorrow & continues through much of next week as an anomalously strong ridge builds over nearly the entire CONUS. What is rare about this ridge is how it peaks nearly directly over the Upper Midwest, with 500 mb heights likely reaching a near-record 600 decameters Monday & Tuesday. Ridges that hit 600 dam are typically associated with extreme heat, although there are a few factors that will keep the worst of this heat wave away from the area. First, a sprawling region of high pressure develops over the Ohio Valley & mid-Atlantic regions with a stationary front developing across the southeastern CONUS along the southern periphery of the high. This will effectively block the flow of Gulf moisture into the region, preventing the very muggy dewpoints in the 70s & 80s that we typically see during heat waves. We'll still be muggy, partially thanks to evapotranspiration really kicking in as the corn crop reaches it's peak growth stage, but dew points mainly look to remain in the mid to upper 60s during this stretch of hot weather. Next is the flow of air in the low & mid-levels under the ridge. Trajectories take the hot air that has been building over the Four Corners region up into the northern Rockies & northern plains where temperatures well into the 100s are expected this week. Meanwhile our flow is generally weak & southwesterly, out of the relatively cooler central Plains.

While we likely won't see days of 100 degree temperatures, we are still expecting a multi-day heatwave Sunday through at least midweek. Highs across the area look to generally reach the low to mid 90s daily, with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 90s possible Monday & Tuesday when the heat peaks, Heat index values look to generally reach 95 to 100 degrees each afternoon, which is actually sub-Heat Advisory criteria for most of the area outside the metro. However Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGT), which are a much better judge of outdoor heat stress, reach elevated categories during the afternoon - so we have issued a Heat Advisory for much of central Minnesota, the metro, & western Wisconsin through Monday night. This isn't to say the heat ends Monday night, just that confidence is lower on just how warm temperatures may reach (low 90s vs mid 90s?) Tuesday & Wednesday & extension of the Heat Advisory may likely be needed into midweek. Another prospect to consider is the long- duration of this heat & the cumulative impacts of heat illness. There will be some cooling relief overnight with the "relatively cooler" dewpoints in the mid 60s & overnight lows in the low 70s, but we could be looking at 4-5 days of excessive heat if temperatures midweek end up of the higher end of guidance. This long duration heat wave could prompt an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning, at least for the Twin Cities metro, where the impacts of excessive heat are most pronounced. All in all, while we won't be setting any daily records with the heat this week, the multu-day duration of the event means everyone needs to be mindful of the proper heat precautions & ensure a place to cool down.

Other than the heat, there's not much going in with the weather as we sit underneath a mega-ridge. Any systems riding along the periphery of the ridge should remain well off to our north across Canada & the northern Great Lakes, although some low chances for precipitation can't be ruled out late in the week as the ridge begins to weaken. The weakening ridge will bring cooler temperatures in time for the weekend, but ensemble guidance suggests temepratures still look to be above-normal into late July.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A cumulus field has formed over southeast MN into western WI late this morning within low-level convergent flow. Cigs will gradually rise to low-end VFR during this afternoon as the boundary layer mixes/deepens. Skies will clear tonight with VFR persisting the remainder of the period. Though, another diurnal, VFR cumulus field looks possible at EAU Sunday morning. 5-10 knot southerly winds this afternoon slow tonight. Then turn southwesterly Sunday morning.

KMSP...A cumulus field near 4000-5000 feet will persist through this afternoon before breaking apart and clearing this evening. Southwesterly winds look to gust into the upper teens mid-Sunday morning through the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON-WED...VFR. Wind SW around 10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to midnight CDT Monday night for Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Ramsey-Renville-Scott- Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Washington- Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to midnight CDT Monday night for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk- Rusk-St. Croix.