textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple chances for rain over the next week with some thunderstorms possible tomorrow.

- Above normal temperatures favored to continue into early November.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Today and Tomorrow... The main area of WAA today has been focused more across southern Minnesota today. The lack of WAA and continued cloud cover and ample moisture has allowed for cool temperatures to continue across western and central Minnesota. This has even had areas of fog hold on into the afternoon hours. As the trough continues to develop to our west, 850mb flow will become southerly across more of Minnesota and Wisconsin. This will increase our WAA and we will also see additional moisture advect in. With this additional moisture cloud cover will likely persist which will limit how warm we can get. Should still be able to get into the 60s with the chance for some lower 70s still possible. This WAA should allow for the motion of the broader air mass in such a way this it allows enough Fgen for a warm front. This front will be a factor in thunderstorm development tomorrow. ML CAPE looks to build during the day tomorrow reaching up to around 1000 J/kg in the afternoon/evening based on current guidance. This combined with favorable vertical shear profiles has increased chances enough that SPC has added in a marginal risk for tomorrow. As for severe modes, all are possible. The low level shear looks great, but storms could end up mostly elevated and it would be hard for them to take advantage of this. If we can get a surface based storm a tornado could occur. If the storms stay elevated this will stay more of hail risk. Overall this seems fairly conditional and storms could be quite pulsey. In the end it will all come down to how much surface heating we can get. If we under perform on temperature it will be unlikely for us to see any longer lived surface based storms. The other airmass will be the cooler air that starts to travel east later in the day tomorrow. This will create a cold front and will be another forcing mechanism for us tomorrow.

Thursday and Friday... Thursday we will behind the cold frontal passage and surface high pressure will move in. The airmass will be cooler, but this higher pressure will finally provide the setup for a return of the sun. Temperatures look to be in the 50s mostly on Thursday as daytime heating somewhat counters the cooler airmass. Friday looks to be similar day to Thursday as the high pressure moves out. The best rain chances at the moment look to stay to our south.

This weekend into early next week... A larger scale system looks to be moving across the CONUS this weekend. Deterministic storm tracks now favor areas to our south and this is reflected in the ensemble QPF trends as well. Won't say that we will be dry, but the trend has been moving lower. Still could see especially southern Minnesota seeing some rain from this. It is more so going into early next week on Monday/Tuesday that is better chance right now. All deterministic global models take a deep surface low right across the north central CONUS. There remains a lot of spread to determine what sector we'd be in and what the impacts will be, but this is the one to keep an eye on for this period. Saturday temperature wise looks to be more 50s. Sunday could start to be warmer with WAA ahead of this next system buoying us into the 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 716 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Ceilings are expected to improve slightly through the night but remain predominately MVFR through the night. Exceptions are across west-central MInnesota where ceilings drop near 500 ft early tomorrow morning. Mist/patchy drizzle sticks around through the night but visibility largely remains VFR, except across the aforementioned region of lower ceilings across west- central MN. Some improvement is expected by tomorrow afternoon with ceilings hovering around the 3000 ft VFR/MVFR threshold, but overall confidence remains low regarding the ceiling heights tomorrow afternoon. A band of showers & embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop late tomorrow afternoon, with the best chances for thunder coming across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. SOutheast winds overnight become more southerly tomorrow morning, & eventually southwesterly along the frontal passage late tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Sub-500 ft ceilings remain stubbornly isolated to MSP with all neighboring airports in the 800-1000 ft range. We do expect IFR ceilings to continue for the next hour or two, then improving to MVFR through the rest of the night & most of tomorrow. Main window for potential thunderstorms looks to be between 4-6 PM tomorrow with hail possible in the strongest storms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts. SAT...MVFR/-RA likely. Wind SE 8-12kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.