textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Much colder today with highs in the teens & below zero wind chills this morning.

- Periods of light snow Thursday afternoon through Friday. Accumulations up to 3-4" across western Wisconsin.

- Gusty winds accompany the light snow & will lead to low visibility from blowing snow, especially in open areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Temperatures continue to fall overnight as strong northerly flow continues behind yesterday's cold front. Patchy low cloud cover is spreading southwards out of northern Minnesota, & sporadic flurries are likely into the morning wherever we see the cloud cover. Temepratures "only" bottom out in the single digits to low teens this morning, but the winds will make it feel below zero through the morning. Daytime highs only reach the teens this afternoon as the cold northerly winds winds don't begin to taper off until this evening.

Deterministic & ensemble guidance continues to be in consensus with a trough deepening over the Great Lakes Thursday through Friday, while a number of shortwaves/lobes of vorticity pivot over the area. This will create multiple waves of light to moderate snow Thursday through Friday, although none of these waves look to be accompanied by any appreciable moisture. Snowfall rates should remain light, with accumulations eventually adding up to 2-4" across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin the snow wraps up Friday night/Saturday morning. The best chances for amounts of 3-4" will be across western Wisconsin.

Despite the low amounts, some travel impacts from this snow are expected as very gusty northwest winds develop Thursday afternoon & continue through Friday. This will result in reduced visibility during periods of falling snow, especially across open areas of west-central & southern Minnesota where the winds will be strongest. The first waves of snow currently looks to get started just after the Thursday morning commute is wrapping up, but low visibility from blowing snow & slick roads from the falling snow will likely lead to a slow evening commute. Thursday's wave looks to be when we will see most of the snow accumulation, but subsequent lighter waves on Friday may actually pose more of an impact as winds gust to 40-50 mph across west-central & southern Minnesota by the afternoon. Tricky to line up Winter Weather Advisories this far out, but one (or more) will likely be needed for portions of the area once we can better line up the timing of the waves of snow with the strongest winds.

Another surge of Arctic air accompanies the strongest wind gusts on Friday, & we remain entrenched in an Arctic airmass through the weekend with ensemble guidance suggesting temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal into early next week. That likely means highs in the single digits & lows well-below zero, although lows will greatly depend on how much snow we see Thu- Fri & how clear skies can stay overnight. The coldest night looks to be Saturday night/Sunday morning when widespread lows of at least -5 to -10 below appear likely. Winds also look to remain elevated through this cold snap, so we'll have to monitor the potential for cold weather advisories during the nights & morning hours. Temperatures will begin to moderate next week as the Arctic airmass slides off to the east, but dry northwest aloft will likely keep temperatures below normal through the rest of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Start the TAF with clear skies & VFR. Mid-level clouds arrive late tonight into Thursday morning ahead of our next snow chance Thursday afternoon. We will see a deck of low stratus move into EAU tonight with MVFR cigs, but it is expected to scatter by sunrise Thursday AM. Northwesterly winds gust up to 20-25 kts early this afternoon. Speeds continue to diminish below 10 kts by the evening, and eventually becoming light & variable tonight. Winds turn to the south Thursday PM and eventually southwest by end of the period. Light snow will begin to move in Thursday mid-late morning. Visibilities will decrease, but should stay primarily VFR. Future TAFs can adjust the timing & categories when confidence increases to do so. Accumulations will be minor, typically a dusting/coating.

KMSP... Light snow and MVFR cigs arrive late Thursday morning. It may be necessary to include TEMPO groups with MVFR vsby for heavier bursts of snow Thursday afternoon/evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SAT...VFR chc MVFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SUN...VFR chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.