textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A major pattern shift will occur this weekend. Extreme heat and humidity are expected to build Sunday persist through next week. Highs 95 to 100 and dew points in the 60s and 70s will send heat indices to dangerous levels Monday.

- Periodic chances for thunderstorms beginning Saturday night and continuing through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

An upper high will build over the southeast CONUS which will put us in persistent ridging over the next week. This will bring warm air advection and a prolonged period of where there will be an extreme heat risk. In this environment it will not take much forcing for storms to develop, so there is almost daily chances for rain/storms Sunday into next week.

Today through Saturday... For this period much of the moisture from the south will be favoring precipitation to our south near the warm/stationary front across the mid-Mississippi Valley. This should keep us dry with respect to rain chances until this front moves north mid to late weekend. As this front approaches there is a chance late Saturday for storms as the environment starts to get more favorable. Models are increasingly agreeing that there will be a stout cap that will prohibit storms Saturday. This isn't a lock yet, but trends are towards dry until we get closer to frontal passage. Continued warm air advection will have a warming trend each day with tomorrow near normal and Saturday above normal.

Sunday through Wednesday... Sunday will see the warm frontal passage which will provide for a round of showers and thunderstorms early in the day. Based on the timing of when this occurs not expecting much strong or severe storms due to the timing which keeps instability very elevated. Continued warm air advection will keep the warming trend going with strong agreement among global ensemble guidance. Temperatures look to peak on Monday with continued much above normal temperatures continuing through the rest of the week, although how much above will depend on if storms form. This pattern with much above normal temperatures shows strong agreement among ensembles. How hot is where there are differences in the ensemble envelope. What appears likely is highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s based on the ensemble data and NBM on Monday. This combined with dew points behind the warm front pushing up to around 70 will bring widespread heat index values over 100 with some locations pushing 110. A cold front will be moving in from the Northern Plains on Monday. This feature could stall over us prolonging the heat and giving daily rain/storm chances. Monday also has a day 5 risk over mainly western Minnesota from the SPC as the shear profile looks quite favorable. This combined with the heat and humidity gives us lots of instability. The main hindrances will be the continued cap and low level dry air. Any storm with enough depth to take advantage of this environment will go severe with all modes possible. The question on Monday will be tied more to if CI can occur, cause if CI can occur the environment is primed for significant storms. We will see a similar setup Tuesday into Wednesday if widespread storms do not form. If we see widespread CI it would help dissipate some of the heat risk and also limit instability for the following days. If CI struggles to occur on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will see little relief to the very hot temperatures with more 90s expected. This hotter solution would also continue to show chances for more thunderstorms across the region. Welcome to summer!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Some lingering MVFR stratus this afternoon across mainly western Wisconsin, but there is also a band of low stratus across Minnesota that has impacted AXN and MKT. Overall trends favor an increase to VFR by this evening, for where it isn't already VFR. Winds will be at or below 10 kts from the N/NE today becoming light and variable tonight. With the system from the past few days fully to the east, we are not expected a third day in a row with morning IFR from low stratus.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25 kts. SUN...VFR. Chc AM SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G30 kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 15-20G30 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.