textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers and some thunder will continue this evening for central/western MN and western WI.

- Mild and tranquil pattern Sunday though much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A bit of a breezy one out there eh? Wind gusts between 25-35 mph will continue over the next few hours thanks to a strong h850 low- level jet that stems from low pressure in southern Manitoba. A cold front extends down from this parent low from Grand Forks, ND down to the central prairies. Ahead of the cold front, warm advective precip has developed over the course of this morning. Enough forcing and weak instability have allowed for the production of few pockets of lightning across western and central MN. For the rest of this afternoon/evening the highest QPF maxima is located up near central MN (i.e. ~0.1 to 0.2"). Those totals fall off rather quickly the further south and west you go as dry air in the lowest levels is limiting development potential early this afternoon. Therefore PoPs have been slightly downgraded for areas across south-central and southern MN based on continued radar trends. Once the precip ends and skies clear from west to east, lows tonight will reach near 50 across southern MN and the TC metro to the mid-40s across central MN.

After today, there isn't much to talk about in the forecast other than conditions being mild and quiet. Mostly sunny skies, with highs warming into the 60s to mid-70s by Tuesday. Another weak wave moves through Tuesday, but this time no precip is expected other than perhaps another breezy day. Wednesday through Friday temps return to the mid to upper-60s while Saturday returns to the mid-70s (and perhaps our last summer- like day of the year).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Showers continue east across western WI with mid level clouds clearing quickly across western MN. By late evening, clear skies will be in place regionwide. Winds will gradually shift to northwest this evening and remain there at 5-10 kts through Sunday.

KMSP...Winds have been a bit chaotic with the showers and may continue shifting, but should favor southwest into mid evening. Thereafter, winds will become steady west northwest for the rest of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-20 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.