textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon & evening across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible with the strongest storms capable of large hail & damaging wind gusts.

- Quiet seasonable weather the rest of the week, with thunderstorm chances returning over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Another quiet night across the area as clusters of thunderstorms across northern Minnesota & southeast South Dakota continue to wane through the early morning hours. can't rule out a stray shower or two through the morning & into the afternoon, but otherwise we're expecting to stay dry until thunderstorms develop along a cold front later this afternoon & evening. A rather warm day is expected as southwesterly winds & warm advection increase during the day ahead of the approaching front, with some compressional warming immediately ahead of the front likely warming temperatures into the upper 80s across much of central & southern Minnesota. This will allow for plenty of instability to build along the front by mid-afternoon with CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg along with deep shear values of 30-40 kts.

So we'll have an environment quite favorable for severe weather during the afternoon & evening, but the question will be just how widespread thunderstorms will be along the front & how early in the afternoon could they develop? Despite the favorable instability & shear values, the strongest upper level forcing will be up near the US-Canada border, likely limiting initiation to only a few storms farther south across central Minnesota & Wisconsin. Furthermore, high-resolution models still remain quite varied in just how early, 7 thus how far east, these thunderstorms may develop this afternoon. The general consensus according to HREF/REFS ensemble guidance suggests that it will take a while for thunderstorms to develop, likely somewhere along Interstate 35/the St. Croix river valley around 4-5 PM. Thus the greatest threat for a few severe thunderstorms looks to be across western Wisconsin, but still can't rule out a threat across eastern Minnesota should thunderstorms initiate an hour or two earlier. Deep shear profiles are supportive of supercells, with large hail & damaging wind gusts likely with the strongest thunderstorms. A tornado or two can't totally be ruled out as well but is much less likely than hail/wind. The severe risk continues into the evening across western Wisconsin as the front moves east with storms expected to be clear of the area by 10PM-midnight.

High pressure begins moving into the area behind the front on Wednesday, but cool air & cyclonic flow aloft will be favorable for some diurnally-driven isolated rain showers. the high pressure holds into Friday with seasonable & dry conditions expected through the rest of the week. A more active upper air pattern develops over the weekend as the jet stream strengthens along the US-Canada border & a number of shortwaves traverse through the Upper Midwest. These look to be relatively weak over the weekend, but supportive of at least scattered thunderstorm chances. A stronger wave looks possible early next week, but still low confidence on the track/timing & location of the heaviest rain potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 643 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Isolated thunderstorms are expected across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin late this afternoon & evening, but at the moment probabilities look too low to include a mention in the TAF. Main timing window should any storms develop is 5-7 PM for MSP/RNH, and 7-9 PM for EAU.

A cold front moves through the area today with winds southerly to southwesterly winds this morning becoming westerly after the frontal passage this afternoon & evening. Gusts around 20 kts are expected late this morning with the southwesterly winds ahead of the front. Gusts of 25-30 kts are expected across western Minnesota behind the frontal passage.

KMSP...Low (10-20%) chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon & evening. If a storm does impact the terminal, it could contain hail & gusty winds over 30-40 kts.

SOuthwesterly winds gust to around 20 kts beginning by late morning & continuing through sunset.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 15G25 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.