textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain this morning across central Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

- Temperatures falling throughout the day, with highs only in the 30s for Thursday.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon in southwest Minnesota.

- More active weather expected next week as we move into April.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

There's a 160kt jet right now screaming along the Canadian border. We're on the southern gradient of the jet. This jet is being driven by the very strong thermal gradient across North America, which saw highs in the single digits Wednesday in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while it was in the 90s again across southern Nebraska and Kansas. The northern edge of the EML, as evidenced by mid-level lapse rates near 9 deg C/KM, comes up into central SoDak, extending east into MN into the Mankato area. The northern edge of this EML is where we've seen an area of rain (and even thunderstorms!) develop across the Dakotas border into central MN. We continue favor the AIFS for where the axis of heaviest rain will fall, which includes the likes of the Canadian and GFS as well with upwards of 0.4" of QPF falling from roughly Morris to Ladysmith in the northern half of the MPX area. South of this band, forcing falls off quick going into the EML and that, along with dry low level air will result in a pretty sharp QPF gradient from north to south across the Twin Cities this morning. Fortunately, it's just rain and not snow...

This band of rain is also falling along a stationary boundary that is stalled out across central MN early this morning. However, as we go through the morning, this stationary front will take off to the south as a cold front. So hopefully you all enjoyed the highs for the day early this morning as we'll have falling temepratures through the day as the colder airmass moves in. That cold airmass will be over us Friday, when highs will struggle to get out of the 30s.

For the weekend, we'll get on the backside of the high, with warm air returning. The problem this weekend is the warmer air starts arriving on Saturday, but higher dewpoints don't arrive until Sunday. NBM tends to be conservative with the mixing for both low RHs and wind speeds and even so, it has RHs Saturday afternoon in southwest MN dropping to around 20% with southwest winds up in the 20 to 25 mph range, so it is looking increasingly likely we may need our first fire weather headlines of the season on Saturday.

Next week continues to look more active as we head into April. Monday night, we'll get into the right entrance region of an upper jet streak and this will start a more active weather period as we see a western trough/eastern ridge pattern develop. Latest NBM basically has 30-40 PoPs from Monday night through Thursday, which captures the current idea well of a more active pattern developing, but low confidence on when/where that precip would be this far out. At this point though, the ensembles are showing better moisture to our east and forcing to our north through the middle of next week, which may keep us on the drier side of things. It's the end of next week into the first weekend of April where things look a little better for us. And of course by then we'll have to watch where the cold air is as well...

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 655 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Rain and a few rumbles of thunder will continue to move eastward this morning. Sites can anticipate precip to clear out ~16z. Although precip ends, MVFR cigs are expected to linger through much of today. Continued to stick with RAP forecast guidance which holds onto lower cigs until early this evening. It is not until 23/01z timeframe that sites begin to return to low-VFR categories from the northwest to southeast. NE'ly wind gusts between 18-25kts become NW later this morning as the front pushes through. Winds will decrease this evening.

KMSP...Rain and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will continue to move just north of the field. Did include a 1-hr tempo in the very near term to capture any rain that manages to reach MSP. Precip should clear out by 16z this morning followed by MVFR cigs until early this evening. Still anticipating a bit of crosswind this morning for the parallels with gusts ranging between 20-25kts. Around 12z tomorrow, winds back towards the NW and could become breezy with gusts between 15-20kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI PM...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.