textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are possible from this afternoon through the evening as a cold front sweeps through. Wind is the primary threat, with lower chances for both hail and a tornado or two.

- Red Flag Warning continues until 7pm in western Minnesota due to low humidity and breezy winds. Elevated fire weather conditions expected in the same area tomorrow due to low humidity with weaker winds.

- Quiet weather to start the weekend, followed by a cool spring rain system arriving Sunday through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Today's Severe Weather Threat...

Our shield of cloud cover has yet to even begin to erode over eastern Minnesota with the leading edge of the approaching cold front evident on the western side as bubbling cumulus hovers near the western edge of cloud cover ahead of the front. This is the area to monitor over the next couple hours as we anticipate convective initiation to occur in multicell clusters over the next couple hours. The lack of clearing ahead of the front could result in a scenario where a bit of differential heating leads to a slightly stronger pulse of convection along the western edge of the cloud cover, already evident by billowing anvil clouds stemming from eastern Nebraska. As the multicellular clusters form, storm strength will be varied based on location and proximity to other cells as they compete for the same environment, with continues to look less than ideal overall. Recent ACARS soundings from aircraft flying into MSP airport show a solid 150-175 J/KG of CIN over the metro thanks to the cloud cover, with MUCAPE only around 500 J/KG with a long 'skinny' profile of CAPE above the cap. The shear profile is also somewhat lackluster with the only directional veering below 900mb with unidirectional shear aloft, resulting in a flat uni-directional shear profile that from a conceptual model standpoint would favor multicells into upscale linear growth as opposed to stronger individual cells or supercells. Going through all the potential threats, the tornado threat is isolated to storm boundary interactions with the first clusters of storms that pop up, with any that do manage to spin up looking to shear out quickly and remain on the weaker side. A secondary tornado risk will exist into the evening as the linear convective mode could have a few localized notches promoting a brief circulation, but once again on the weaker side with the lack of shear keeping us from seeing longer track stronger storms. Lapse rates are rather poor on the order of 5 degrees per km from 0-3km improving to 8 degree per km from 3-6km, meaning elevated hail is possible but generally a more isolated and lower end threat. Wind is expected to be the primary risk associated with our convection today especially as the initial storms form into a line ahead of the cold front into the late afternoon through the evening, with linear convective mode promoted by the unidirectional shear and persistent boundary moving across the area. Lastly, there is an isolated localized flooding threat mainly in western WI where PWATS are a bit higher and the potential for lingering storms later into the evening are present, however widespread or more impactful flooding is not currently expected.

Fire Weather...

Behind the western edge of the initial convection, we maintain much lower relative humidity due to not only warmer temperatures but also much lower dew points across western Minnesota. This coupled with the gusty winds stemming from the pressure gradient of the nearby low pressure system has resulted in sporadic Red Flag conditions this afternoon which look to diminish after 7pm as temperatures fall behind the cold front. A simple comparison of Madison MN in Lac Qui Parle County which is currently sitting at 75 over a 45 degree dew point compared to Buffalo MN in Wright County at 68 degrees over 60 degree dew points shows the stark difference in moisture content over just half the state. With the vast majority of precipitation remaining too far east to accumulate much, another day of fire weather is possible tomorrow over the same region of western Minnesota as RH once again bottoms out into the 20s thanks to dropping dew points behind the cold front. The main difference between tomorrow and today is the lack of significant wind tomorrow, meaning conditions will be elevated but not quite the Red Flag conditions that are being observed today. Regardless, anyone planning on burning tomorrow should keep an eye on the local conditions especially earlier in the day when winds are a bit stronger.

Sunday and beyond...

Another surface low looks to move east-northeast from Colorado to the central plains by Sunday morning, giving us our next chance for active weather across the region. Moisture and warm air will advect northwards ahead of the incoming surface low, however the lack of upper level reinforcement will result in an overall weaker system which has a lower chance for severe weather. Instead, our region looks to be located on the northern side of the surface low resulting in a cooler showery soaking rain beginning Sunday and lasting through most of Monday until the surface low pushes out of the area into Tuesday. While today's convection looks to be significantly more spotty in terms of QPF coverage, the long duration relatively sustained rainfall through Monday should result in more of the area seeing higher overall amounts on the order of an inch to inch and a half across much of the MPX CWA from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. This includes the areas of western Minnesota that have largely been missed by the significant rainfall so far this season, however the highest amounts are still expected a bit farther east spanning northern Wisconsin to central Iowa. After precipitation wraps up Tuesday morning, we look to enter a relatively quiet stretch of weather as an eastern CONUS trough and PAC NW ridge suppress the southern stream jet farther south, keeping any potential systems from making it far enough north to give us any chance at severe weather. This is likely a welcome break for areas of the Great Lakes which have seen significant rainfall and flooding, however areas of western Minnesota may still be asking for more rainfall once we head into May.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR/MVFR this afternoon as a blanket of stratus leads a cold front that will feature a north/south oriented line of SHRA/TSRA over the next few hours. Other than some remnant cloud cover, AXN should be dry through this period. RWF has a few lingering VCSHs nearby but should push east over the next couple of hours. Areas east of these two sites have the better chances of observing showers and storms this afternoon hence current tempo mentions. Aside from the traditional thunderstorm threats, today's environment does support the potential for heavy rain. Did not include and "+TSRA or +RA" in the current TAF but RNH, EAU would have the best potential of localized heavy rainfall. Gusty 25-30kt southerly winds will continue this afternoon but then shift NW'ly late tonight once the cold front passes. Cigs will linger in MVFR for a few hours before returning to VFR tonight. Tomorrow winds will be weaker near 10kts out of the NW with mostly clear skies.

KMSP...Introduced VCSH for the line of scattered showers just west of the TC metro that could produce a brief shower over the next hour or so. It is expected that more prevalent showery activity develops over the next hour and reaches MSP by 19z. Thunderstorms will develop within this line of showers most likely between 21-23z timeframe. After 00z, conditions linger in MVFR for a few hours before returning to low-VFR cigs. Southerly gusty winds near 25- 30kts will shift NW'ly once this cold front passes around midnight tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts becoming S. SUN...VFR, chc PM MVFR/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts. MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA. Wind E 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa- Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.