textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues today with highs around 90.

- Heavy rain looking increasingly likely Thursday into Friday. Low confidence on where the heaviest rain may fall.

- Smoky skies continue through the week but the chance for surface smoke impacts appears low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

It is a quiet and mild morning with areas of light fog developing. Visibility is holding in the 3 to 5 mile range, but a few areas have dropped to around a mile. High clouds streaming east from the Dakotas may improve the fog or at least hinder additional development. A weak shortwave rounding the crest of the ridge, still centered over the southern Rockies, will progress across the Upper Midwest later this morning and afternoon. An uncapped and unstable atmosphere may allow for a couple brief storms to develop during peak heating. Otherwise, it will be another hot day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

A far stronger shortwave will progress east across the northern Plains Thursday and reach the Upper Midwest Thursday night, becoming more amplified as it does so. There remains quite a bit of spread with the development of a surface low center from eastern SD to KS, but clustering has tightened with the EPS and AIFS focusing on eastern SD, to southern MN or northern IA, to southeastern IA through Friday. Very rich moisture will stream north on a 35 kt LLJ and frontogenesis near the low track will focus an area of heavy rainfall just north of the low. At least a few inches of rain appear probable in this corridor, but given the latitudinal spread in the guidance, confidence remains low with spatial details. Some embedded thunderstorms are likely, but very poor lapse rates will lead to meager instability and limit the severe risk.

The system will exit to the east by Friday night and the weekend looks dry with near normal temperatures. A deep trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest during this time, which will buckle the ridge back northeast Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will trend back up, but surface high pressure over the Great Lakes should keep the most intense heat off to the west. A weakening cold front associated with the PacNW trough may bring another shot of showers and storms the Monday night-Tuesday timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Patches of fog and mid level clouds are scattered across the region, but all TAF sites are clear at the current time. Diurnal CU expected to develop late morning. Light southerly winds through the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. MVFR/SHRA/chc TS evening/overnight. Wind SW 10 kts. FRI...MVFR/SHRA/chc TS. Wind E shifting N 10kts. SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.