textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant, seasonable weather continues through Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lower humidity.

- Scattered thunderstorms Monday evening through Tuesday night. Best chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is Monday evening.

- Quiet weather returns for the second half of the week with near-normal temperatures and only low rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Cooler & drier air continues to filter into the region as Canadian high pressure follows this morning's cold front. Lows will fall into the low to mid 50s outside of the twin Cities metro, with patchy mist & fog possible during the early morning hours.

Monday starts off with similar cooler & drier conditions, but moisture advection will increase through the afternoon & evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Scattered showers & thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front during the late afternoon/early evening across the Dakotas & far- western Minnesota, but it will be take until later in the night for these showers & thunderstorms to spread across the rest of the area. A few stronger storms are possible during the evening across western Minnesota where 1000-1500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE will be present along with ~40 kts of deep shear. The front continues to drop southwards through Minnesota & Wisconsin through the day Tuesday with another round of scattered thunderstorms expected to initiate during the afternoon & evening. Guidance has generally sped up the timing of the front by a few hours, meaning much of this activity looks to be south of the area across Iowa. A few stronger thunderstorms are again possible, but this thereat looks limited to far-southern Minnesota deepening on the timing of the front.

Dry northwest flow returns Wednesday and persists into the latter half of the week as upper high pressure shifts west. Most of Wednesday through the weekend looks dry, though a weak disturbance could bring isolated showers or storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures remain steady near 80 degrees through the period, keeping conditions close to seasonal mid-to-late August normals.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the overnight and through most of the day. Winds will continue to calm with light at less than 5 knots and VRB in direction. Light winds and SKC to FEW skies will promote patchy fog across portions of the area, mainly focused over western WI terminals of RNH and EAU. Fog will lift by 13-14z over western WI. VFR conditions areawide will resume. Another round of showers and storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. PROB30 for -TSRA for MSP after 00z.

KMSP...Chance for some thunderstorms after 00Z tomorrow. Sticking with a wide PROB30 for now, but will be able to shrink the time range it covers as it gets closer and confidence increases.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.