textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense wildfire smoke is expanding south and west this afternoon, reducing visibilities and impacting air quality levels.

- Dangerous heat wave continues this week. This is a long duration and cumulative threat due to daily highs in the 90s, heat indices approaching 100 degrees, and little relief overnight.

- No major signal for precipitation through early next week, mainly isolated afternoon/evening chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Regional visible satellite imagery shows a dense pool of smoke slowly expanding south and west this afternoon. Surface visibilities in areas of the dense smoke are generally around 1 to 3 miles. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and various public reports have noted that the smoke has been a rapid onset "wall of smoke" situation. There is some uncertainty with how far south the smoke will spread, but we are already seeing the wall flirt along a line extending from Alexandria through St Cloud and the north Twin Cities metro, all the way towards Eau Claire, WI. The hazardous air quality levels are expected to remain north, closer to the fires, though areas of unhealthy to very unhealthy air quality is expected tonight into tomorrow. An Air Quality Alert remains in effect through noon on Thursday in WI and through 11 AM on Friday in MN.

The smoke is impacting temperatures already today, with the dense surface smoke acting to filter out the sun. The Extreme Heat Warning was downgraded to a Heat Advisory for areas already seeing the impact of the dense smoke. In addition to that downgrade, we have opted to transition the Extreme Heat Warning to a Heat Advisory for everywhere outside of the metro this evening. Heat indices are trending lower for Thursday afternoon, with most places maxing out around 95F. The urban heat island within the metro will likely keep the low near the mid 70s tonight and heat indices are still expected to peak around 95-100F during the afternoon as well. Everywhere will likely warm up again Friday as the low level response to a upper level shortwave shifts winds out of the south again. The metro's Extreme Heat Warning was extended though Friday evening as confidence has increased for continued warmth. A broader Heat Advisory may need to be extended into Friday as well, but confidence is not as high outside of the metro.

This ridge will really start to break down through the weekend and into next week. A few passing shortwaves should provide occasional chances for rain, though there continues to be no major signal for a widespread rainfall. Our best chance areawide looks to be on Monday as a cold front pushes through the region and drops temperatures back down into the low 80s for highs and 50s and 60s for lows.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 546 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Low visibility from wildfire smoke will be the main impact to aviation, with the lowest visibility expected across easterner Minnesota & western Wisconsin tonight through early tomorrow morning. LIFR visibility below 1SM is possible at times at STC/RNH/EAU, especially during the coolest part of the day between 3-8 AM. Elsewhere smoke is generally expected to be MVFR this evening with visibility reducing to 1-2SM after midnight. Visibility improves by mid to late morning but we still could see some light smoke linger through the rest of the day. Winds will be light through the period, generally shifting from northeasterly this evening to southerly by late tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Nearby observations suggest visibility from the smoke will be worse than prior forecasts along with an early onset time. Expect visibility of 4-6SM shortly after the start of the period, likely falling through the night. Visibility down to around 1SM looks likely overnight into early tomorrow morning, generally between 3-8 AM.

Isolated showers & thunderstorms can't be ruled out around the terminal late tomorrow afternoon & evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts. SAT...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts. SUN...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton- Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Goodhue-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Thursday for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Goodhue- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet- Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Chisago-Faribault- Freeborn-Isanti-Kanabec-Martin-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Steele- Waseca. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for Anoka-Carver- Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington. WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Thursday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for Barron-Polk-Rusk.