textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like warm through Thursday. Tuesday is forecast to be the warmest day with highs in the low 90s possible.

- Diurnal thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A warm and sunny Memorial day has played out across the region. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s and even a few 90s across far western MN this afternoon. Skies are mostly clear other than a few diurnal Cu across S MN and cirrus across C MN. It will remain a pleasant afternoon with no precipitation concerns until later this evening when isolated thunderstorms may begin to develop across southern MN. Hires guidance builds in 1500-2000+ J/Kg mlCAPE overhead that'll remain capped under rising heights until this evening. The greatest threat is SW MN and NW IA but there will be a need to keep an eye on any thunderstorm that is able to form given it's a favorable environment for damaging winds (inverted V soundings and modest at best shear.) Overall, confidence isn't too high for where they develop, which has led the PoP forecast to remain on the lower end (20-40s).

We'll see any storms dissipate by mid Tuesday morning and then temperatures will be off as they warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday afternoon. A weak cold front will begin to move through from the northeast during the second half of Tuesday. This will allow dewpoints to pool into the mid 60s and when combined with highs around 90 should provide enough diurnal destabilization to support isolated to scattered afternoon/evening convection Tuesday evening. Any storms will pose another threat of damaging winds under ample instability, but little to no shear. Updrafts will go up quickly and collapse just as quickly in a pulse thunderstorm environment. Any collapsing downdraft could produce damaging winds and once again will require us to keep a close eye on any storms Tuesday PM. This boundary will lead to diurnal convection Wednesday afternoon, but it'll be confined to the MN river valley and I-90 corridor as slightly cooler & drier air settles in across east- central MN and W WI.

Looking ahead to the end of the work week and into next weekend reveals a rather pleasant and benign forecast. The culprit will be the expansive Hudson Bay high that will act to supply us with drier/slightly cooler air via easterly low level flow. Aloft, an omega block will keep the upper air pattern from evolving much over the next week. Blocking patterns like this are historically slower to break down than what guidance may offer in the medium to long range time frame. There is a glimmer of hope we see southwest flow aloft set up as we get into second week of June. This would allow us to advect some moisture into the region and support better rain chances across the Upper Midwest.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Quiet this evening, but a more complicated forecast overnight through tomorrow with multiple rounds of isolated showers and thunderstorms expected. Confidence is highest in a round of showers & a few thunderstorms developing over southwest Minnesota early tomorrow morning & moving northeastwards into central Minnesota through mid-morning. MKT & RWF has the highest chances of seeing rain, & possibly some thunder, out of these showers, but they may reach as far as STC or MSP by 15-6Z before dissipating.

The outflow from these showers is then expected to generate another round of isolated showers & thunderstorms by mi- d afternoon, with the outflow from these showers likely generating more showers & thunderstorms through early evening. These cells are all expected to be small & any MVFR vis/ lightning impacts will be brief, but confidence on just when the chance for shra/tsra is uncertain at this time.

Southerly winds between 5-10 kts this evening become lighter & more variable through tomorrow morning. Generally southwesterly winds are expected through the afternoon & evening, but outflow from showers & thunderstorms could result in several hours of variable, or easterly winds during the afternoon & evening.

KMSP...Can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm around 15-16Z, but the chances for brief -shra/tsra impacts looks highest during the mid afternoon through early evening. Confidence on just when remains too low to include a mention in the TAF. Winds are expected to go easterly through tomorrow evening, but easterly winds could develop as early as 18-20Z depending on the impacts of outflow boundaries from showers & thunderstorms in the area.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Chc aftn -TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.