textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Southeasterly winds gust to around 25 to 35 mph today.

- A west-to-east moving cold front will trigger a couple rounds of storms today and tonight. Severe wind and hail risk is Marginal, and localized rainfall amounts may exceed 2 inches.

- Slightly cooler temperatures are on the horizon with rain chances returning late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Surface cyclogenesis is expected off the lee of the Rockies today as a positively tilted shortwave slides northeast across the northern Plains. For us, that means winds increase out of the southeast and PWATs settle in around 1.5 to 2 inches. Overall, it will be an alright day with highs near 80 and breezy winds, but this does set the stage for storm chances late this evening and overnight as a trailing cold front sweeps through.

There is high confidence that the main front does not move through until early Tuesday morning, however there is solid agreement across guidance that there will be some flavor of pre- frontal activity today. One solution, the HRRR, has been suggesting scattered showers develop this morning across southern MN. This is reasonable given the WAA regime that will set up and we are already seeing activity in northwestern IA as of 3AM. We do not expect any showers to bubble in the same way they did yesterday morning though, with forecast soundings showing a wedge of dry air above 500mb. Regardless of any showers this morning, there is also agreement on storms developing during the afternoon or early evening timeframe across the Dakotas and moving east through central MN during the evening. The overall coverage of these evening storms vary considerably from model to model, and even run to run of each model. Our highest PoPs, and therefore highest confidence, stretches from Alexandria east towards the Mille Lacs and Kanabec county area. The nature of those pre-frontal storms will likely play a role in how widespread and intense storms are overnight along the main boundary. With storms likely being very clustered and primarily elevated, a marginal risk for severe wind and hail remains in place. Perhaps the bigger concern is for heavy rain and localized flash flooding. With the chance for 2 or even 3 periods of rain today, some areas could see amounts on the high end of QPF. As with any convective scenario, it really depends on where those storms travel over and if they persist for several hours in a given area. On the opposite end, not all locations may see rain as well, with that low confidence in overall coverage area playing a role.

Any lingering showers and cloud cover will begin to clear out by midday Tuesday, though there may be some redevelopment during the afternoon along the boundary as it stretches across southeast MN and west-central WI. Outside of this, the forecast quiets down for a nice Wednesday and Thursday. Northwest winds do increase on Wednesday, with gusts up to around 25 to 30 mph, which will advect in that drier and cooler airmass.

Long range guidance continues to trend towards a deep trough developing next weekend, which may bring a series of cold fronts Friday through Sunday. The latest NBM PoPs reflect this idea, with 10 to 30 percent chances each day. Along with any rain chance will likely come a strong push of cooler weather again, potentially dropping our highs next week to below average.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

New 18z TAF package features quite a few adjustments owing to hi-res model and observational trends. First item of concern is the persistence of breezy southerly winds through the period, with peak gusts approaching 30kts for many of the MN terminals. The other part of the evolving forecast is the arrival of rain/possible thunderstorm chances later this evening and overnight. Hi-res models have come into agreement on the track of an initial batch of warm advective showers that are forecast to move from western MN into central MN around sunset. Forecast soundings highlight dry air within the column and little elevated instability with eastern extent, which should keep this initial batch of showers on the lighter side for most locations. Things change tonight as the low-level jet intensifies and supports the development of a broad region of showers and possible thunderstorms. CAM lightning density plots suggest this convection develops near or just after midnight along a line from AXN to RWF, spreading east with time. New TAF package leans on latest hi-res blend to tie up precipitation timing. Winds turn WSW Tuesday morning following the departure of early day rain & storms. The true surface cold front will pass Tuesday afternoon, which will result in a wind a WNW wind shift. It's possible a few showers or an isolated storm may develop ahead of the frontal passage and another precipitation mention may be added in forthcoming TAFs.

KMSP...Breezy southeasterly flow persists, with peak gusts between 25-30kts late afternoon/early evening. Could have a few showers around the TC Metro this evening, but better chances for rain (and potentially thunderstorms) arrive overnight, which is reflected by a PROB30 from 7-10z. Winds turn SSW after daybreak. While most of the day will be dry, a few showers are possible ahead of Tuesday afternoon's cold frontal passage & the addition of a PROB30 or TEMPO for daytime showers may be warranted.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.