textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Historic March winter storm getting started and will last into Sunday night. Peak intensity of snowfall expected tonight through Sunday morning, with wind and blowing snow impacts peaking Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Travel conditions will become dangerous to impossible tonight through Sunday. Given expected impacts to travel with the heavy snow then blowing snow, we have upgraded our entire area to a Blizzard Warning.

- FORECAST UPDATES: Little change in the snowfall forecast. High confidence in widespread 8"+. A band of 10-18" is expected from Montevideo, to the Twin Cities, and Eau Claire and Ladysmith. Highest amounts of 20"+ will be seen in the eastern Twin Cities metro into WI.

- Another quick 1-2 inches of snow expected Tuesday night.

- Snow will quickly start melting the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

This storm will come at us in two parts. First will be a west-east oriented warm frontal band tonight that transitions into a traditional cold conveyer belt deformation band on Sunday. The highest storm totals will be seen where these two parts of the storm impact the same locations. This double dipping zone will run from roughly Montevideo in western MN, through the entirety of the Twin Cities metro (and catching St. Cloud), and continuing on east to Ladysmith and Eau Clair in WI. Widespread 10-18" totals are expected within this heaviest band of snow, with 20"+ amounts possible in the eastern Twin Cities metro and across western Wisconsin. The heaviest snow is expected to fall from roughly 2am to noon Sunday, with snow rates during this time frequently in the 2 to 2.5 inch per hour range. Farther south (US-14 corridor on south), they will miss the brunt of the first wave, which is why snow totals in far southern MN are down in the 4-8" range. Precipitation down there will start breaking out late tonight as we begin to transition from phase 1 (warm front band) to phase 2 (deformation band) of this system. As this does so, a warm nose will still be in place, with a period of sleet and freezing rain expected before a transition to the snow, with the 4-8" of snow down there coming almost entirely from phase 2 of the system.

For the winds, they will really start to pickup during the day on Sunday as we get into the CAA of this system. The strongest winds will lag the highest snow rates some, but the combination of the strengthening pressure gradient a efficient mixing resulting from the steep low level lapse rates of the CAA will send the winds up through the day. Looking at RAP soundings, we're seeing mid-channel mixing winds at FRM over 50kts, with mid-channel winds at MSP and EAU around 45kt. This will push wind gusts Friday afternoon into the 50-60 mph in our traditional windy areas of western and southern Minnesota, with gusts dropping more into the 40-50mph range for eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. This will result in significant blowing and drifting of snow as we start to see the snow slowly wind down Sunday afternoon and evening.

So the Blizzard Warning... There is high confidence given the snow totals and strength of winds that blizzard conditions will be observed in our traditional "blizzard alley" from west central to south central MN, especially late Sunday morning into Sunday night. For eastern Minnesota into western WI, blizzard purists may argue that we don't hit blizzard conditions of a 1/2 mile or less visibility with wind gusts of 35 mph or more for 3 or more consecutive hours. This is because the strongest winds will be lagging the heaviest snow and eastern MN and western WI really need the heavy falling snow to achieve the visibility requirements of a Blizzard Warning. However, we are looking at historic snowfall amounts for a March storm (see climate section), with travel expected to be crippled across our entire area tonight into Sunday night. In addition, when the common citizen looks out the window Sunday morning (ie. not the blizzard purist!), they'll likely say, yup, this is one heck of a blizzard. Given the expected high to extreme impacts, we felt comfortable in pulling the biggest winter messaging lever we have, the Blizzard Warning. Simply put, travel is expected to be very dangerous on Sunday and the best way to get the message across on just how severe this winter storm will be is to go with Blizzard Warning.

After the Blizzard....

It will be cold behind this system, with temperatures remaining below freezing Until Wednesday afternoon. Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning. We'll have high pressure centered overhead with light winds and clear skies. This will send lows below zero area wide, with double digits below zero possible. Fingers are crossed that this is the last time we'll drop below zero the rest of the spring!

At the large scale, the big story next week is the summer-like h5 ridge that develops over the desert southwest. This ridge will build north and east across the CONUS through the week. As it starts pushing in here Tuesday night, a quick moving northwest flow wave will slide down the thermal gradient on the northeast periphery of the ridge. This will result in a quick hitting burst of snow, with a fairly widespread 1-2" of snow expected across most of the MPX area. Behind this quick moving system, the southwest ridge starts building across the Plains and into the upper MS Valley. The pattern will remain active, but the storm track will shift north into Canada, with the MPX area getting to play in the warm sector of any passing systems. One such system will pass between Hudson Bay and Lake Superior on Friday, which will send a tongue of warmer air our direction Thursday and Friday, where it will encounter our deep snowpack. This may temper what the NBM has for highs Wednesday through Friday as we work on melting the snow. Behind this front Friday, we'll see a quick hit of cold air to start next weekend. This will leave behind a baroclinic zone that could signal a return to more active weather as we head into the last week of March.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

No significant changes for the 06z TAF compared to the 00z with minor tweaks to timing of snowfall and reduced visibility across many sites. We still anticipate less than 1sm VIS and IFR with SN for the first 6 hours with periods of LIFR, 1/4sm, and +SN possible. Winds will increase as they shift towards 340-360 with BLSN becoming widespread after 18z and continuing through the rest of the period. SN ends at the latest by 00z, with BLSN continuing IFR vsby until the end of the TAF. There has been no thunder observed within the last few hours, however given the storm dynamics, a brief period of TSSN is possible across MSP/MKT/RNH.

KMSP...We are in the middle of the event now with observations ranging from 1/2 to 3/4sm across the area, with periods of 1/4sm expected with peak snow intensity from roughly 06-12z. We likely remain IFR despite -SN ending from 00-03z due to BLSN, which will continue through the end of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR bcmg MVFR/-SN. Wind S to SE 5-10kts. WED...VFR. Wind SW 5kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

To provide some historical context to the snowfall forecast for this weekend, here are the 10 largest observed single storm snowfalls in the Twin Cities recorded history (1884-present) as collected by the MN State Climatology office.

1. 28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard) 2. 21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend) 3. 20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23 4. 17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21 5. 17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Domebuster) 6. 16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13 (Armistice Day) 7. 16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4 (Largest March snowstorm) 7. 16.7 inches: 1940 March 10 - 14 9. 16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28 10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21 10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9

For Eau Claire, the largest ever snowfall from a single event is 22.0" (all of those 22" fell on December 11th) that fell during the "Domebuster" blizzard back in December of 2010. This may be within reach with this storm

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Blizzard Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle- Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Blizzard Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM CDT Monday for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin. WI...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.