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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Cold Weather Advisory will replace Extreme Cold Warning at noon. Winds Chills tonight will range between -25 to -35 degrees.
- Quiet and cold through most of next week with only minor snow chances.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 224 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
It is just. down. right. cold. Current temperatures ranging in the upper teens to low 20s below zero. Sustained 10-15kt winds gusting to near 20kts continue out of the northwest early this morning making these already cold temperatures feel even colder as wind chills bottom out at -40 to -45 degrees. Although this isn't the coldest we've seen historically. Back in 1936 on January 22nd, MSP recorded an air temperature of -34 degrees and 20 mph winds. Thus making a wind chill of -67 degrees. As for what is on the current satellite, only a few bands of low stratus out there that look to be producing some flurries and perhaps some brief reductions in visibility but no accumulation expected and should wrap up prior to daybreak. Winds will begin to decrease as a mid-level trough departs farther eastward over the Great Lakes and allows for a 1045mb surface high to arrive from the west later today.
Despite the strength of this surface high, cloud cover is expected to stick around today thanks to the impressive storm system impacting the southern CONUS. Although it wont be a completely overcast day here, there should be enough clouds present to help with some surface insolation. Felt that the Consshort guidance looked to represent this this better compared to the latest NBM, thus used CONSShort hourly Ts through Saturday to help nudge surface Ts up slightly. With that said, our Extreme Cold, and Cold Weather headlines remain the same for now. Once the Extreme Cold Warning ends, it will immediately transition to a Cold Weather Advisory. Wind chills tonight into Saturday morning will not be "as cold" as last night's. Weak winds will allow for MinTs to represent how cold we get tonight which in this case ranges between -15 to -25 degrees. Not much to discuss beyond in the forecast beyond today as it remains cold and quiet. We will have to watch a clipper system Monday night however that looks to remain distant enough to where we'd only see a slight chance for some light snow. Temperatures will continue to remain well below normal in the single digits to low teens through the rest of this month.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
WNW winds will gradually ease this afternoon, then become light and variable tonight. A few MVFR level clouds have developed in a narrow strip over west central MN, but expecting clear skies for the rest of the day at TAF sites. It isn't impossible a brief cig may occur in this arctic airmass, but predictability is very low. A few mid level clouds will stream overnight tonight.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville- Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Cold Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Anoka- Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota- Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. WI...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Cold Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
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