textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers possible across eastern MN/western WI late tonight into Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation expected.

- Band of accumulating snow possible across southern MN Saturday.

- Warmer late week (40s), colder this weekend (20s), followed by a rebound into the 30s next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The Upper Midwest remains in a post-frontal northwesterly flow regime early this morning. Most locations are reporting temperatures in the teens and it appears likely that locations will continue to cool through daybreak as stratus gradually scatters out and winds relax. Speaking of the stratus, we have observed a few reports of inconsequential flurries which remain possible anywhere stratus exists in the short term. Subsidence tied to incoming high pressure will work to erode whats left of the stratus, setting the stage for a mostly sunny day ahead. Afternoon highs will run colder today, with most locations forecast to warm into the low 20s. The exception will be southwest of the MN River, where temperatures are forecast to climb towards the 30 degree mark. Later today, a band of snow will develop and produce accumulations across eastern SD, far SW MN, and northern IA. Mid-to-high level clouds will likely increase across south central MN ahead of the snow band this afternoon, however little if any precipitation is anticipated for counties in the MPX coverage area.

Later tonight, the upper jet stream will take on a split, two pronged look as the dominant western ridge undergoes suppression by a strengthening northern jet stream. Several models have advertised a round of light precipitation developing on the nose of the northern jet late tonight into Thursday morning across eastern MN/western WI. Dry air in the column and the subtle nature of the wave should support a tenth or two of potential snow accumulation at most. Still, we gave a boost to the NBM PoPs to reflect ~30 percent chances for snow showers from Mille Lacs (MN) to Rusk (WI) and have ~20 percent PoPs along and east of I-35 in MN and WI.

The active northern stream will spawn a strong surface cyclone across southern Canada Thursday into Friday. The cyclone's track will remain north of the International Border, which places the the Upper Midwest on the warm side of the system. Warm advection within westerly mid-level flow will transport a +10C temperature anomaly over southern MN/western WI to end the work week. Surface temperatures will climb well about normal Thursday (40s) and Friday (Mid 40s to Mid 50s). Both days look pretty good for any late February outdoor plans, as we'll likely only have some higher clouds to contend with. The surface cyclone is forecast to continue deepening north of the Great Lakes heading into Saturday and this process will send a strong cold front south across the forecast area. Weekend highs fall back into the teens/20s as a result of strong cold air advection on backside of the storm system.

The return of colder temperatures is the high confidence portion of the weekend forecast. What is more uncertain is the potential for a band of accumulating snow on Saturday. Driving these chances is a jetstreak within the northwesterly flow aloft set to translate southeast along a remnant baroclinic zone from MT to IA. Frontogenesis in the 850/700mb layers will support the development of a sprawled out WNW to ESE oriented band of precipitation. Despite slight run to run differences, there is already pretty good agreement across both the deterministic and ensemble suites that locations south of I-94 would be favored over locations north of the interstate for potential accumulating snow. In fact, NBM already displays 40-50 PoPs across the southern half of the forecast area. Ensemble mean QPF's are between 0.1-0.25", which would support a band of 1-3" inches of snow -- it's just a matter of band placement and duration of snowfall. We'll continue to refine the forecast, but want to get the message out that weekend travel along I-90 may be slick and snowy should trends continue. Ridging builds east early next week and will support a temperature rebound into the 30s and 40s Monday- Wednesday. A fetch of Gulf moisture will bring increased precipitation chances to the Ohio Valley early in the week, but confidence is low in whether or not precipitation chances will materialize this far north.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

The 06z TAF period opens with breezy northwest winds and a broken deck of MVFR cigs ~2k feet. Some uncertainty in how long MVFR cigs will persist at any one terminal, however the trends support improvements to VFR conditions by 12z. Could have a few inconsequential flurries reported within the stratus. The remainder of the day will be VFR with lighter surface winds as high pressure builds in. A deck of mid to high level clouds is forecast to overspread the region tonight, but no precipitation is expected.

KMSP...MVFR cigs are forecast to gradually scatter out before daybreak. Otherwise, no concerns in the TAF today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts bcmg NW 15G25kts. SAT...VFR. Chc -SN/MVFR. Wind NW at 10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.