textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures slightly warm this weekend with two chances of rain for eastern MN and west-central WI Saturday night and Monday.

- A cooldown follows Monday with frost/freeze concerns returning through mid-next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Despite a majority of our CWA having clear skies, temperatures have seemed relatively slow to fall tonight. This could be due to the beginnings of the WAA that will warm us up this weekend. A few areas have fallen to near the freezing mark, particularly central MN and northwest WI. Still, expecting much of our area to drop to at least near freezing by sunrise, as our widespread Freeze Warning remains in effect. The aforementioned WAA will cause us to warm into the 60s this afternoon. Clear skies will gradually become cloudier throughout today as a subtle shortwave approaches within the northwesterly flow. Far western MN could see a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon before cloud cover arrives. Humidities are forecast to drop into the upper 20 percent range while west-southwesterly winds will gust to near 25 MPH. Borderline conditions but perhaps a SPS fire weather conditions could be warranted later today, depending on how cloud cover evolves. CAMs show showers breaking out late this afternoon across central MN and traveling southeast through this evening. Have 20-40% PoPs across eastern MN and WI as coverage seems more scattered. Places that do see rain won't have a total washout, but expect wet surfaces and possibly a brief trip indoors if you have outdoor plans tonight. Tonight's lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s.

Sunday's highs will reach the 60s again with mostly sunny skies. Fire weather conditions actually look a little more concerning Sunday afternoon compared to Saturday. Humidities are forecast to drop largely below 30 percent with localized areas seeing 20-25 percent. Northwesterly winds won't be very strong but they will be breezy and widespread with most of the area seeing gusts of 20-25 MPH. While it will be a nice weekend to be outside, please be careful if planning to do any outdoor burning. The warmth should last into Monday before a cold front arrives Monday afternoon. Our southern CWA is forecast to see highs in the lower 70s while central MN will be near 60 as the cold front interjects during peak heating. Rain showers are possible along this front, but a majority of the synoptic lift is placed off to our northeast. The highest PoPs for our area (30-40%) are currently over WI where a few hundredths of rain could occur. The bigger story with this cold front will be the proceeding cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper 40s to mid 50s are possible for highs while frost/freeze concerns will return each night through Wednesday night. Forecast models do hint of a moderation of temperatures the latter half of next week as upper- level ridging over the western CONUS tries to work east. But, don't expect a big warm up soon as northwesterly flow should continue to largely prevail over the Northern Plains at least into the 2nd week of May. Significant chances for precipitation also look slim given the northwest flow regime.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR expected through this next period with clear skies to start this afternoon. Clouds will eventually spread from diurnal Cu and the advance of a cold front. With this frontal passage there will be a period of VFR rain showers, so kept the PROB30s in the TAFs. Winds will also shift with this frontal passage from the current SW/W winds present across the terminals to a NW wind. Some wind gusts this afternoon and again tomorrow morning. It will not take as long for mixing tomorrow, so the gustier winds will occur earlier in the day.

KMSP...Shifted the start time of the VFR showers in the PROB30 a little earlier based on current frontal passage timing. The bigger impact for this period will be the wind shifts from the current SW/W winds to NW after the front passes and more gusty winds tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SW to NW 10-15G25 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.