textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder than normal conditions continue through and beyond the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-zero morning of the season coming Thursday.

- There will be multiple chances for snow over the next week with passing clippers, but any snow amounts we see will be very light.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

It's much quieter than 24 hours ago, with the upper midwest under the influence of a shortwave ridge embedded with the mean long wave trough that extends from the Great Basin to the mid-Atlantic. For tonight, the main uncertainty is cloud cover. Large portions of the area will start the night with clear skies, but we'll also have a batch of persistent stratus from northwest WI back down to south central MN. If a location can spend a good 6 hours under clear skies, then they should be able to drop down below zero given the light winds, but if clouds persist, then dropping below the teens above zero will be difficult. Basically, it's a big bust potential on the lows tonight given the dependence on cloud cover.

For Monday, we'll see the shortwave currently over the 4-corners region head toward Missouri. Though most of the forcing will remain south of us, a quick look at soundings show south central through east central MN and western WI will have favorable moisture and thermal profiles within the DGZ such that it should take very little forcing to get some light snow going. We'll have some weak low level WAA on Monday and we're seeing some models like the RAP and HRRR having just enough forcing to kick out some very low QPF into southeast MN and western WI. We switched from NBM over to ConShort for PoPs on Monday, since the later had some pops in the 20s/30s in southeastern portions of our CWA. Even if it does snow, over achieving would be getting a half inch (0.5) of snow, so no significant impacts are expected with this.

Southerly winds and "milder" temperatures will continue through Tuesday out ahead of a strong cold front that will slam across our area Tuesday night. We still anticipate light snow on the front. However, this is a setup the NBM always struggles with. One or two hundredths of QPF and a 2-4 hour window for snowfall. It did at least broad brush some 20-40 PoPs, but we suspect PoPs will increase for Tuesday night as we get closer and can start nailing down that 2- 4 hour wind for snow. Once again, over achieving for snow with this front would be getting all of a half inch (0.5) of new snow. Behind the front, we'll have falling temperatures during the day on Wednesday, with lows for Wednesday night/Thursday morning continuing to trend colder. This looks like an ideal radiational cooling night with a fresh snowpack. This mornings run of the NBM now has lows double digits below zero Thursday morning for all but the core of the Twin Cities metro in our coverage area. Record lows Thursday morning are -12 (EAU), -15 (MSP), and -16 (STC), these are some of the "warmest" record lows in the month of December. Although we're currently not forecasting any record lows, we will be getting uncomfortably close.

For the rest of the forecast, it's northwest flow, cold, and clippers. Within the models, you can find clipper potential locally Friday, Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday. In all cases, over achieving would be 0.2" of liquid and 3 inches of snow with any single wave, so in all cases, the snow would be cosmetic in nature. As for the cold, Sunday looks to be the coldest day with another Canadian high moving through that will be followed by another good chance at going below zero for lows Sunday night/Monday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The MVFR stratus over WI has been slow to clear, but current thinking is the trailing western edge should pass EAU by 10Z. Have gotten more aggressive with conditions deteriorating overnight at AXN and STC. Strong radiational cooling should allow for fog and very low clouds to develop. Currently have LIFR at both sites until at least sunrise with visibilities and cigs falling to 3/4sm and 400 feet, respectively. MVFR/IFR cigs should characterize the rest of Monday. Kept PROB30s at MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU for -SHSN where MVFR/IFR is periodically possible. Light/variable winds tonight will become south- southwesterly Monday morning and increase to 5-10 knots by early afternoon.

KMSP...Expecting MVFR conditions to develop by 13Z Monday as cigs fall to near 1500 feet. Kept PROB30 for -SHSN and 5sm visibility from 16-21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR clouds with IFR/-SN possible late. Wind SW 5-10kts. WED...MVFR with -SN possible early. Wind NW 10-15kts. THU...VFR and cold. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.