textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- On Thursday, rain showers remain possible in southern Minnesota, but are trending downward. Otherwise, dry conditions through the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures will persist through early next week, with highs rising from the 30s/40s through Thursday to the 40s/50s from Friday into next week.

- Saturday's warm high temperatures will have MSP, STC, and EAU all approaching 90+ year old records.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Current satellite imagery depicts dwindling cloud cover across much of Minnesota, with Wisconsin slowly following. Areas in western Minnesota have warmed into the upper 30s as a result of more sun and lack of snow cover, elsewhere will likely be restricted to the low 30s. Winds remain northwesterly and breezy as the departing surface front continues eastward. Zonal upper- level flow and building high pressure through early Wednesday will continue the quiet weather pattern. This will scatter out the overcast skies, leading to a mostly sunny Wednesday. An increasingly weak surface low looks to develop over SD/NE and nudge into far southern MN Thursday. Latest trends have pushed most all precipitation south of MN. Limited moisture will be associated with this frontal passage and in combination with the weakening trend, this has led to a continued downward trend in PoPs for Thursday. Keeping all of this in mind, a chance for non-impactful scattered rain/snow showers remains for Thursday morning in areas near I-90 and south. Forecast QPF has continued to fall, now expected to around a hundredth or two. This lessening of QPF has virtually eliminated the chance for accumulating snow, but a few flakes on the northern periphery are possible.

Looking beyond Thursday, things largely remain quiet and 'warm' for mid-February standards. High pressure to the east will bring predominantly southerly flow Friday through early next week, with a brief period of westerly surface flow on Sunday ahead of a dry warm frontal passage. This means we will continue to see temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above normal for the next week, with highs in the mid 50s by the weekend. Saturday looks to be the warmest, with a forecast high of 50 degrees in the Twin Cities, even warmer in southwest MN (mid 50s). Should MSP reach 50 on Saturday, it would break a 144 year old record of 50 degrees on Valentine's Day back in 1882. It is important to note that this record high of 50 on 2/14 is seemingly low-hanging fruit, with most record highs for MSP in February in the upper 50s to low 60s. Records aside, the normal high on Saturday is around 28 degrees, so it can be said with certainty that it will be an unseasonably warm Valentine's Day.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Fog is beginning to develop northwest of AXN and guidance is in pretty strong agreement bringing it into AXN during the overnight hours, lingering through much of Wednesday morning. The rest of the TAF sites should be VFR through the period, but will need to watch the evolution of the stratus across the eastern half of ND and northern MN. There is little indication currently of it developing farther south, so maintained the VFR forecast at the TAF sites aside from AXN.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind light/variable. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.