textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing drizzle and light snow likely early Friday morning across far eastern MN and western Wisconsin.

- Mid to late winter thaw continues with above average temperatures being featured through the majority of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Warm advection is in full swing as a surface warm front relatively bisects Minnesota from north to south this afternoon. For the areas lucky enough who have escaped the low stratus deck have already warmed into the the upper 30s and even a few sites pushing low 40s. Areas east of I-35 this afternoon remain under the stratus where temps remain near 30 degrees. The break from cloud cover will be short-lived as our next disturbance arrives from the northwest tonight. Our afternoon temps wont deviate much this evening meaning tomorrow's forecasted highs (low 30s) will actually be met at midnight tonight. As the low crosses the north shore into western Wisconsin, cold advection will takes charge which will increase winds speeds and force temperatures to gradually fall through the daylight hours. Wind gusts as of now are expected to range between 25-35 mph for at least the first half of Friday before decreasing. The strongest gusts should occur across southwestern and southern MN but anticipated to remain below wind advisory criteria. As for precip, forecast soundings continue to favor well a saturated surface layer beneath a dry DGZ, maintaining confidence for freezing drizzle likely to occur across eastern Minnesota and western WI. Areas west of a line from Rice Lake down to Cadott, Wisconsin have a stronger potential of seeing snow as the dominant p-type but amounting only to a half-inch or less of snow accumulation. Regardless, ice accumulations could amount to a light glaze and with cooler temperatures in the forecast, this could prolong the potential for slippery conditions. So ensure to slow down and allow for extra travel time for the morning and perhaps afternoon commutes. The "main" round of precip is expected to clear out by around sunrise Friday however, there is enough residual lift in play to where a few flurries could occur through the morning in the wake of this disturbance.

By Friday night, temperatures should bottom out in the low teens across southwestern MN and a few degrees below zero across western WI. Ridging across the western CONUS will struggle to makes its way fully overhead thus Saturday's highs will leave quite a west/east thermal gradient. Southwestern MN can expect to highs rebound into the mid 30s whereas western WI reaching only near 20 degrees. It is not until Sunday where low pressure over the eastern CONUS moves away and allows the western ridge to become the dominant feature overhead. Temps will jump at least 10 degrees for nearly all sites on Sunday (highs in the 30s and 40s) followed by another 10 degrees for Monday (highs in the 40s to low 50s, yes 50s!). Other than a mix of clouds and sun, the weather will remain quite for this timeframe.

As we get further into next week, flow becomes more-zonal in nature and carries a wave across the northern plains. The latest NBM does blanket 20-30% pops in for this timeframe as guidance diverges on exact timing for the passage of this wave. Given our warmer environment, p-types will definitely be something to keep an eye on as this period get closer. As for temperatures, forecast highs wont be as warm as Sunday and Monday but still trend above seasonal normals.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

MVFR/IFR stratus has been right on the edge of KSTC and KMSP all morning. Finally starting to see some potential for clearing for KSTC upstream, but KMSP will hold on to the lower cigs for a few more hours. Decided to keep our Wisconsin terminals MVFR/IFR through the period. A weak wave will bring some -FZDZ chances to western Wisconsin overnight, reinforcing the IFR conditions. Unsure of the westward extend of this precip, so left the PROB30 for KRNH for now. Farther west, high clouds are moving through with MVFR cigs expected to develop late tonight. Strong CAA will increase northwesterly winds with gusts of 25-30kts by early Friday morning.

KMSP...Went more pessimistic with keeping the MVFR cigs in place until 21z, but they could clear out slightly earlier. The return to VFR will be short with more low clouds arriving around 06z with increasing northwesterly winds. Think that any precip will remain off to the east across Wisconsin. Clouds clear by early Friday afternoon with winds slowly trending down.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 0-5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.