textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm today and Sunday, with cooling temperatures through midweek before much colder temps arrive after Thanksgiving.

- Rain likely Monday, with rain transitioning to snow on Tuesday. Snow amount potential on Tuesday will depend on how quickly temperatures fall and rain transitions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A quiet morning across Minnesota and western Wisconsin with some lower-mid level cloud cover over the eastern half of Minnesota and all of western Wisconsin, which has kept temps a bit warmer than last night generally in the low 30s. There are spots that haven't seen as much cloud cover that are in the 20s, primarily in areas of western WI where the clouds have just reached as of around 2am and enough cooling has already taken place. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 50s today as efficient mixing under mostly sunny skies will also give us some breezy southwesterly to westerly winds. It will be a great day to tackle the last of the outdoor prep work before winter as much colder temperatures are expected by this time next weekend, with tomorrow potentially being our last 50 degree day for the next few months. Sunday will overall be similar to Saturday as the surface high pushes southeast towards the Ohio Valley, with surface and low level WAA with southerly to southwesterly winds.

As the high pressure slides southeast, a developing upper level trough looks to occlude over the east-central Rockies as it moves into the west-central plains, with broad forcing ahead of the incoming trough expected to bring scattered to widespread rain showers on Monday. Guidance has remained consistent bringing rain showers as early as 8-9am to southern MN, spreading over most of the MPX CWA by midday as a surface low begins to develop as the trough occlusion wraps around and tilts northeast by Monday evening. Guidance has varying strength and slight differences in position of the surface low by Tuesday morning, however most keep it situated over the general area between Duluth and the UP over Lake Superior. This would allow for northerly winds pulling down much colder air over the 850-700mb layer, eventually cooling things down to the DGZ which would allow a transition from rain to snow as the showers continue into early Wednesday. Given the subtle differences in model timing and position of the surface low, there are differing solutions on just how much snow ends up falling as the differences account for 3-6 hours of difference in colder air sliding into the region. A faster transition while the strong forcing from the upper level trough is still present would obviously result in more snow, which is the favored solution by the GFS/GEFS which keeps the surface low farther west and brings colder air to the area quicker than the ECMWF/CFS. Until there is some better agreement on the position of the potential surface low any talk of snow amounts will have to wait as we still have some active weather to deal with ahead of it. The forcing generally diminishes as the upper level trough moves over the Great Lakes through Wednesday and into Thursday, with some significant cold air intrusion into the northern plains during this window which will help crash temperatures by Thanksgiving down into the teens for lows and 20s for highs. This colder air generally gets locked into place with some of the longer range guidance showing even colder temperatures to follow after Thanksgiving weekend and into early December. Be somewhat wary of the worst of the cold solutions if you see them advertised elsewhere as the coldest solutions would all but require a significant snowstorm ahead of it, which is beyond the scope of what we can have any confidence in right now. Regardless, high temperatures struggling to get out of the teens is not out of the question for the first week of December as the cold air remains locked in place.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR. Breezy northwesterly 20-25kt wind gusts will accompany a passing cold front for the rest of this afternoon. There is a marginal potential for 30-35kt LLWS during FROPA at 1-2kft however am not expecting speeds to surpass 40kts, therefore did not include mentions in the TAF. Scattered mid-level cigs across our eastern and southern sites will transition to mostly clear skies post-FROPA. Northwesterly winds become westerly at or about 5kts tonight then southwesterly by tomorrow morning near 5-8kts.

KMSP... No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind W to SE 5kts. MON...VFR to MVFR, PM -SHRA. Wind SE 5kts. TUE...MVFR, chc -RASN. Wind NW 10-20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.