textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain lingers overnight into tomorrow morning.

- Extended stretch of dry weather expected into mid-November.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend through most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Gloomy wet November weather continues for a third day today as a sub-1000 mb low continues remains stalled out as it occludes directly over the area. The low will slowly move off to the east into the Great Lakes overnight into tomorrow along with the lingering light rain that we've seen through out today. Widespread cloud cover will still stick around along with cooler temperatures as northwest flow keeps temperatures in the 40s through the day tomorrow. Clouds will eventually clear out Friday morning as drier air filters into the region from the northwest. We could see widespread sub-freezing temperatures Friday morning if the clouds are able to clear out during the overnight hours, but AI-guidance & the latest high-resilution guidance trends suggests we'll probably stay cloudy & warmer through the night.

Friday starts an extended stretch of dry weather as a number of high pressure systems generally dominate the weather regime over the Upper Midwest & eastern CONUS as a whole. AI & physical ensemble guidance suggests we have little chance of any appreciable rainfall over the next two weeks, with maybe a weak clipper giving us a quick hit of light rain for the middle of next week. Temperatures will be above-normal through the period, with the warmest weather coming early next week as upper-level ridging builds over the central US & ensemble guidance shows temperature anomalies of 10-15 F above normal. For context, normal temperatures this time of November are in the the upper 40s for highs & low 30s for lows. Temperatures dip a bit later in the week but return to well- above normal values next weekend through mid- November as pronounced ridging looks to rebuild over the central CONUS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 538 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Slow-moving low pressure system continues to turn over the Upper Midwest. The center of the low was near MSP at initiation, with terminals to the west of MSP observing breezy northwesterly winds. Southerly flow continues east of MSP at RNH and EAU. Winds will turn northwesterly at all sites this evening and widespread LIFR conditions due to rain, low ceilings, and visibility reductions will spread east through the night. Rain is forecast to end from west to east through daybreak Thursday, which will be followed by ceiling improvements through the morning and afternoon. Still, the low-level inversion aims to persist through the day, so the best case ceiling scenario will be MVFR cigs near 2k feet by the afternoon. Breezy northerly flow will produce gusts upwards of 25kts through the end of the 00z period.

KMSP...Latest observations show that the northwesterly wind shift has occurred to the northwest of the TC Metro at GYL and CFE, however it will still be an hour or two before the winds kick out of the northwest at MSP. Have reflected this with a slightly delayed wind shift in the new TAF. Otherwise no major changes to the going forecast with rain, LIFR ceilings and visibility reductions through the night. Precip should depart the terminal by the morning push. Thursday will feature breezy northerly winds and a gradual improvement to MVFR ceilings.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.