textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow expected to arrive around midday today in western MN, spreading southeast into early Sunday morning. Several inches of snow accumulation are possible in southern MN with lower amounts to the north.

- Cold and dry to end the weekend with highs only in the single digits in MN on Sunday.

- A couple of chances of snow the first half of next week, with the most significant chance being Tuesday into Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Cloudy skies have limited how much we've cooled off overnight with temperatures still in the upper teens to lower 20s early this morning. Temperatures won't warm much today as overcast skies will remain. The clipper system for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night is the main concern in the short-term. With the latest guidance tracking the 700 hPa low from YNK/FSD to DSM, have leaned heavily to a more southern solution with the prevailing swath of snow. The ECMWF and ECMWF-AIFS are both in this camp and the ECMWF- AIFS has done remarkably well with other snowfall events so far this winter. Our latest forecast gives 4-6" across extreme southern MN, 1- 2" on a line from CNB-RWF-MKT-FBL, and then an inch or less to the north (includes the Twin Cities). Have opted to keep headlines the same, though, the northern-most tier of counties in the Winter Weather Advisory are flirting with not being warranted. Snowfall rates could reach 1-1.5" per hour, particularly along I-90 and south, but luckily this system will be moving from west to east pretty quickly such that these higher rates will only last an hour or two. Snow should end pretty quickly from west to east early Sunday morning as the clipper moves into the Midwest.

Cold air will immediately follow the clipper with Saturday night's lows dropping to -10 F in western MN to near 0 in west-central WI. Northerly winds will be just enough that western MN should see wind chills near -20 F by sunrise Sunday. Sunday will be dry as surface high pressure slides overhead but temperatures will struggle to warm with highs only reaching the single digits in MN. Low to mid teens are forecast for our WI counties. Another cold night is expected Sunday night with lows within 5 degrees of 0. Low-level WAA will begin Monday as the next clipper in the wave train approaches. Temperatures will moderate Monday with highs in the 20s to even lower 30s possible in western MN. Guidance favors the track of the aforementioned clipper passing from northern MN into WI. This track would keep most of the snow to our north, but our northern and northeastern counties could see a dusting to perhaps an inch of snow by Tuesday morning.

While Monday's clipper doesn't appear to be too significant, the clipper forecast Tuesday into Tuesday night continues to be the one to monitor in the long-range. Deterministic guidance shows a compact shortwave with a strong mid-level vorticity maximum following an upper-level jetstreak. A deepening surface low should evolve ahead of these features, tracking southeast from ND into MN and then WI. Exactly where remains in question, but the EPS has trended with a deeper trough and a more southern low track over the last several runs. I-94 and areas north would be favored for accumulating snow with this solution. The EPS-AIFS is even slightly farther south compared to the EPS, driving the swath of snow through the heart of our CWA. Meanwhile, the GEFS is much farther north with the surface low track but has been coming around to a deeper upper-level trough in recent runs. We will continue to watch this system as we could either get a quick thump of accumulating (to potentially significant) snow. Or, the surface low could be far enough north (like the GEFS solution) to where we are stuck in mild, above freezing temperatures. Following this system, guidance favors another blast of cold air for the latter half of next week with strong surface high pressure sliding southeast from the western Canadian Prairies. A break from our more active pattern looks like a good possibility Wednesday onward.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

The next in the train of quick hits of snow is gathering this morning in the Dakotas. The heaviest snow with this system will track across Iowa, though we will still bring some lighter snow up into southern MN and RWF/MKT. The question for MSP/RNH/EAU is how far north does the snow make it, with all three of these terminals looking to be near the northern edge of the falling snow today. Late tonight, skies are expected to clear out from west to east. For winds, speeds will be under 10 kts this period. We'll see directions become ENE this morning, turning back to the NNW overnight.

KMSP...Trend at MSP from the models overnight was for less snow. Many models now keep MSP dry, though we're still thinking some light snow will fall at times in the 21z to 3z window. However, it doesn't look to accumulate.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late night. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...MVFR cigs. Chc -SN in mrng. Wind SW 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with -RASN. Wind S 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin- Nicollet-Redwood-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.