textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist through sunrise, a few producing hail and gusty winds, followed by partial clearing this afternoon.

- The next best chance for rain comes early Tuesday morning, then dry for much of the upcoming week.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values through Wednesday, then drop below normal Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A bit of a nondescript surface pressure pattern sits over the WFO MPX coverage area with some scattered showers/thunderstorms early this morning over far eastern MN through western WI. A few meager troughs at the surface can be analyzed while the main surface low lingers over eastern SD/NE. Aloft, the large trough emanating from Hudson Bay continues to rotate several shortwave disturbances around its western and southern fringes through the Upper Midwest. The most important feature is LLJ in between 900-700mb, helping spark the thunderstorm activity within an environment sporting a roughly 1.50" PWAT. The moisture/instability gradient shows up nicely at the surface with dewpoints into the low- mid 60s in western MN while dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60 are evident in eastern MN to western WI.

The expectation is that going towards sunrise, the push of the surface low into IA within the elevated moisture/unstable environment will help fill in the area over southwestern- southern MN with additional showers/thunderstorms. Not necessarily expecting much in the way of strong-severe thunderstorms but the storms ongoing overnight have generally produced 0.25"-0.50" hail along with frequent lightning and rainfall rates nearing 1 in/hr. The storms are progressive to the east, thus mitigating flooding concerns thus far. However, should storm coverage overachieve, even FFG over 2 in/hr could be realized in pockets.

Storms are expected to wane in coverage/intensity from late morning into the early afternoon, with partial clearing thereafter as the low pressure center and its associated fronts move to the E and SE of the coverage area. This will then allow high pressure to nudge southward from Canada. While this scenario will not bring in an airmass change in terms of temperatures/dewpoints, it will push the lingering frontal boundary far south enough to allow for dry weather to prevail from this afternoon through Monday evening. The front does look to retreat back north just enough to spawn another round of scattered showers/thunderstorms early morning Tuesday, in conjunction with one last gasp from the upper low over eastern NOAM. Like this morning, there is the possibility of a few stronger storms but organization is again lacking as is diurnal assistance due to the overnight timing.

The rest of the week looks to run mainly dry aside from an isolated chance here or there of a few showers. The topic then changes to one of temperatures as temperatures will remain generally close to normal through Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, possibly as high as 84-85 degrees. The upper ridge over the western CONUS is expected to flatten/shift southward slightly while the NOAM trough shifts to the eastern seaboard, making for more pronounced northwest flow aloft for the north-central CONUS. Cooler western Canadian high pressure will slide southeast to the Upper Midwest, bringing a cooler airmass to our region from Thursday onward. This will push highs into the 70s area-wide for the latter portion of the week, with lows into the 50s away from the Twin Cities metro (and near 60 within the TC metro).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Thunderstorms have filled in over much of southern MN at initialization time this morning and will continue shifting off to the SE, mainly impacting MKT and possibly the WI TAF sites for the first 1-2hrs of this set. All others will remain dry throughout, with all sites having gradually clearing skies to only high passing cirrus/smoke by late morning, persisting through Monday morning. Variable winds around 5kts will settle on a northerly direction by mid-afternoon and remain there through tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Not only does convection look to remain south of MSP and not be a concern, but ceilings have returned to VFR after briefly within MVFR range prior to the 12z sending deadline. Thus, will run with VFR conditions for this entire duration as no additional thunderstorms are expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc early A.M. -SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts becoming NW. THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.