textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming, with temperatures peaking on Tuesday around 40 degrees.

- Mixed precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday with cooler, more seasonable, temperatures going into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Current satellite shows a deck of mid-level clouds covering most of the Upper Midwest, with scattered low-level stratus hidden beneath. These low-level clouds will become more widespread through the morning, leading to a mostly cloudy day. Winds continue to occasionally gust to 25+ knots across southern Minnesota, but should die off in the next few hours. Compared to Sunday, a much warmer morning is in store across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but temperatures will still be brisk in the mid- teens. It will warm into the 20s along and NE of I-94 and lower 30s SW of I-94 through the day today, but the real 'warmth' arrives on Tuesday. Warmer air will advect into the region in association with a mild Pacific airmass, resulting in widespread highs in the 40s. Our deep snowpack will keep temperatures from getting too warm, but going from subzero to 40 above in 48 hours will feel like a heat wave. A weak shortwave trough Tuesday night will break the WAA, but one last push of WAA associated with the the next bigger system should again push temperatures above freezing for Wednesday.

The early week warmth will set the stage for a mid-week clipper to move south from Canada. Late Wednesday, a surface low will move into the Upper Midwest. This low is forecast to remain in the northern half of Minnesota, resulting in those across the southern half of the state and western Wisconsin being in the warm sector. Should the low track slightly south, that would move our region closer to the colder side, meaning more snow and less rain. Trends have been fairly consistent in keeping the low to the north, meaning we are most likely going to see a rain or rain/snow mix. A transition to snow on the backside is likely as a potent cold front moves in Thursday morning. Snow amounts will likely stay on the lower side, with accumulations of trace to less than an inch. This will be a situation where Thursday's high temperature technically occurs at midnight as temperatures will only drop through the day. The timing of this front remains on of the larger uncertainties with this forecast, with a recent trend towards an earlier passage. This would result in an earlier transition from rain to snow, but overall not change much. The transition from rain to snow should be clean, without many P-type concerns. A close eye will be kept on this given the alignment of the transition being within a few hours of the Thursday morning commute. A light period of freezing rain cannot fully be ruled out during the transition, but it is not the likely scenario given forecast soundings in their entirety quickly fall below freezing, leaving little time for any warm nose to cause impacts.

Looking to Friday onward, temperatures will moderate to near/slightly below normal with highs in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the single digits to teens. Another weak clipper is possible Friday, as is reflected by scattered 20% PoPs, but an otherwise quiet weather pattern is expected to return for the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

The 18z TAFs have trended in a more optimistic direction given satellite/observational trends as well as output from the latest short term guidance. High level clouds continue to blanket the skies over the Minnesota terminals, though little deviation from the VFR scenario has occurred so far today. On the other hand, a deck of MVFR stratus remains in place across far eastern MN (north of MSP) and much of western WI. Did include the mention of SCT clouds around ~015-020k feet at STC/MSP which are closest to MVFR obs. MVFR stratus prevails at RNH/EAU, with low confidence on the evolution of this stratus this afternoon. Otherwise, took ceiling trends in the VFR direction for much of the period. Light winds may allow for some patchy visibility reductions late tonight. Confidence in this scenario is highest at EAU.

The approach of a shortwave from the northwest tonight will set the stage for a LLWS at all terminals. Surface winds will turn westerly as a warm front slides east tomorrow morning and will gust upwards of 20-25kts through the afternoon. The strongest gusts will be near AXN, where 30kt gusts are possible.

KMSP...Will continue to monitor MVFR trends at CBG & RNH and cannot rule out the need for a short term AMD to include an MVFR cig ~015-020k feet. Otherwise, the TAF has been taken in a more optimistic route as mentioned above. Southerly winds increase after 8z and the main aviation focus will be the likely development of LLWS around 12z through the morning hours tomorrow. Surface winds turn westerly tomorrow afternoon and will gust upwards of 20-25kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR to MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. THU...MVFR. Wind S early, bcmg NW 15-20G30kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.