textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected late this evening through the first half of Saturday.

- Heat and humidity returns for the second half of the weekend into the start of September with low PoP chances throughout the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

High clouds have started to stream in ahead of an ongoing area of showers and storms in central North Dakota. These showers will continue to diminish as they arrive in western Minnesota by this evening. After sunset, a strengthening LLJ and the main shortwave will arrive and shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase during the early morning hours. QPF wise, both deterministic models and ensembles can't see to agree on where the heaviest axis of precip will fall. There have been dramatic shifts in the precip placement from not only model to model but run to run as well. A wide footprint of around a quarter inch seems reasonable with localized amounts near or just over a half inch somewhere across central Minnesota. SPC did pull the SWODY1 Marginal Risk further east across western and southern Minnesota for the potential that storms grow upscale with a damaging wind risk early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, instability is lacking for the risk of more widespread severe weather.

Rain will end from west to east across far western Minnesota by mid morning with showers hanging on into the afternoon for western Wisconsin. Clouds will be slower to clear, but some afternoon sun is possible for western and southern Minnesota. Southerly winds turn easterly by the evening with a frontal boundary stalling out somewhere across southern Minnesota. Storms are possible again Sunday afternoon, and these could pose a higher risk for severe weather given a much more favorable environment. This front will stick around into early next week with daily chances of showers/thunderstorms, but any widespread, prolonged beneficial rainfall does not seem very likely at this time. Additionally, highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s through at least the middle of next week, which is about 10 degrees above normal. This, combined with Tds in the mid to upper 60s/near 70 means that summer-like weather will hang on as we head into meteorological Fall.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

First 6-hours of the 00z period will be quiet, with high clouds continuing to stream eastward. A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out at AXN & RWF during this timeframe, however forecast soundings reveal dry air through much of the column which should work to limit these chances.

A different story unfolds tonight as the low-level jet strengthens across eastern NE/western IA. Showers and and thunderstorms are forecast to blossom on the nose of the jet across eastern SD/western MN and move eastward overnight. Instability is strongest along the SD/MN border, so confidence was high enough to convert PROB30s to TEMPOs for thunderstorms at AXN, RWF, & MKT. Convection will outrun the main instability plume as it moves eastward, which in turn results in lower probabilities for thunder. As such, opted to maintain the PROB30s at STC & MSP, trend downward to a VCTS mention at RNH, and remove thunder from EAU. Rain chances begin to decrease as the main shield of precipitation moves eastward after daybreak. A period of MVFR or lower ceilings will follow the departing rainfall, which will likely linger into midday at the eastern MN/western WI terminals.

Southerly winds increase with convection tonight and could feature gusts of 20-25kts Saturday morning. Winds remain southerly behind the departing morning round of showers and storms. Cigs return to VFR by early afternoon.

KMSP...Main change to the 00z TAF was to prevail with -SHRA starting at 10z. Confidence is high in precipitation reaching the terminal near or after 10z, however confidence in thunder accompanying the rain is low due to displacement from the better instability to the west. Collaborated with ZMP CWSU to keep the PROB30 for -TSRA in the TAF from 11-14z and will follow observational trends for potential upgrade to a TEMPO. Period of MVFR cigs possible as rain begins to move out.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. SChc -TSRA. Wind S 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.