textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold temperatures continue with wind chills values reaching 30 to 40 below zero this morning. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM today.

- Light snow across western WI could produce minor accumulations this evening. Additional low chances for flurries and light snow throughout the week.

- Colder than average temperatures this week but a warming trend arrives next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

All remains calm, quiet, and cold early this morning. Surface temperatures ranging in teens below zero with relatively light winds. Unlike last night, this added wind has allowed for wind chill values to fall as low as 30 to 40 below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM this morning. So ensure to bundle the little ones up before heading out to the bus stop. Surface high pressure from yesterday will advance south today clearing the path for a mid-level wave to sweep across northern MN into northwestern WI. As this wave approaches, a warm front will help drive temperatures warmer by late this afternoon prior to the arrival of the trailing cold front that moves through tonight. Forecast highs will reach the mid to upper teens south of I- 94. Winds will become breezy today with gusts between 25 to 35 mph. With the increase in wind speeds, its possible that some areas across southern MN could see patchy blowing snow in unsheltered areas. Light snow continues to look likely across western Wisconsin this afternoon. Given agreement amongst EPS members for light snow, have increased PoPs higher to definite values for areas east of Rice Lake down through Eau Claire. Snow accumulations continue to range near a half-inch or less. Meanwhile farther west, a slight chance of flurries is possible mainly north I-94 in Minnesota.

As mentioned in the previous discussion regarding the long term forecast, northwest flow will continue this week with occasional bouts of reinforcing cold air. Some flurries are possible at times, but the atmosphere should be too dry for any meaningful accumulating snow. A moderating trend should arrive next weekend as a milder Pacific airmass engulfs North America. That warmer air advection will be aided by a clipper system across the northern Plains and return flow from a large high pressure system over the Mississippi Valley. There may be a better chance for light snow within this regime, but model consistency has been not been great.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 607 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR to start, MVFR this evening, and IFR snow likely for EAU. Mostly clear skies will gradually fill in with high level few/sct stratus this morning. A mid-level wave will make its way across MN/WI today causing SW winds to increase to 20 to 30 kts across all sites by this afternoon. Winds shift NW once the trough passes overhead this evening and gusts are expected to remaining breezy overnight. Now for precip, highest chances for -SN to occur would be focused near RNH and EAU. It is possible that a few flurries could reach as far west as AXN to STC late this afternoon however, best support for snow growth will be over the WI sites. A half-inch or less of accumulation can be expected for the WI sites. Cigs will be slow to recover after the wave passes. All sites (except for RWF) will remain borderline MVFR/low VFR through the remainder of the period.

KMSP...Main concern for today will be decreasing cigs down to MVFR later this evening. Right now the current thinking for that to occur is between 4 to 10z. There is a sub 30% chc of -SN/flurries to occur mostly between 23 to 02z. Stronger chances of snow exist east over the MN/WI border. Will monitor/amend for snow trends westward if they occur. SW winds becoming breezy this afternoon into the evening hours with gusts between 20-25kts. After 4z, winds will shift NW and remains breezy for the rest of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE PM...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for Anoka- Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota- Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. WI...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.