textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog and freezing fog to persist through sunrise over much of central-eastern MN into western WI this morning.

- Mild temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are expected today, followed by colder temperatures through the weekend.

- A mix of rain and snow is expected this afternoon into tonight over southern-eastern MN into western WI. Little to no snow accumulation expected.

- Another system on Saturday looks to bring minor accumulating snow for mainly western WI.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Surface analysis early this morning depicts a split flow pattern with a 998mb low over southern Manitoba province with an associated southward-sagging cold front over the eastern Dakotas along with a stronger developing 997mb low over eastern CO and the TX/OK Panhandle area. Weak zonal flow aloft is situated over the Upper Midwest but a weak surface pressure gradient is resulting in SE winds under 5mph with mainly clear skies but modest warm air and moisture advection. This combination is producing expanding fog and freezing fog across much of central-eastern MN into western WI, some of which has visibilities under 1/2sm. Thus, a Dense Fog Advisory is in place thru 9am this morning. The complication is that the fog will be slow to lift as warm air advection atop a continued, albeit diminishing, snowpack will not allow the fog to dissipate rapidly and thus the fog could persist into later this morning. As to the more broad synoptic picture aloft, the Canadian low is associated with a weak shortwave trough aloft but the developing low in the lee of the Rockies is in conjunction with a more potent southern stream trough aloft.

As the day progresses today, the southern trough will become the dominant feature, absorbing not only the weak Canadian trough but also nudging the CO/Panhandle low northeast through the Plains and mid-Mississippi River Valley regions through today then pushing it into the Great Lakes tonight. The combination of Pacific and Gulf moisture dragged northeast with this southern stream system will be realized starting this afternoon in southern MN, then spreading northeast through tonight. The deepening moisture columns looks to eliminate any threat for FZDZ/FZRA at the onset of precipitation, thus the only precip types expected with this system is rain, then a rain/snow mixture, then all snow this afternoon through tonight. QPF looks to range from 0.1-0.2" liquid from around MKT up through MSP, with closer to 0.3" liquid from around Albert Lea to Eau Claire. Most of this will entirely be realized as rain due to temperatures into the 36-39 degree range at precip onset. However, as temperatures drop closer to the 33-35 degree range going into the evening hours, precip will change over to light snow, which will then continue into the early morning hours for far southeastern MN through western WI. Snow accums will be light, ranging from a trace to a half inch for areas receiving snow.

The cold front of this system will be well into the Ohio Valley come daybreak Friday, bringing in colder air that will reside through the weekend. Highs on Friday will only range from the mid 20s to lower 30s, with continued cold air advection through the weekend. Along with said cold air advection will be a clipper-type low and a sharp longwave trough which will breeze across the region Friday night through Saturday. A deep upper low looks to form out of the trough right atop the WFO MPX coverage area Saturday, which will help promote snowfall production for mainly western WI and points east. Thus, even with high temperatures in the 15-25 degrees range across the coverage area on Saturday, the only areas expected to receive minor accumulating snowfall looks to be areas east of I-35, and in the range of 1-2" at best.

Dry and tranquil conditions are expected Sunday through Monday night (and potentially longer) as a longwave ridge builds in the western CONUS and slowly spreads eastward during the first half of next week. Thus, this means the weekend cold spell will end come Monday as highs return to the 35-45 degree range. Minor systems are possible from Tuesday onward, featuring a rain/snow mixture, but nothing strong is evident in any given model solution. Thus, the middle of next week will continue to feature mild temperatures along with low amounts of precipitation, if anything is actually realized.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Rain is expected to move into southern MN this afternoon and spread northeast into the evening hours. Precip is expected along and east of a MKT-MSP line. Rain will likely mix with and/or change over to snow prior to ending. If/when this transition happens will depend on precipitaiton rates. If they become strong enough, snow will be able to cool the vertical profile, allowing more to fall as snow. Lower visibilities also depend on whether or not the rain fully transitions to snow. Little to no accumulation is expected. Ceilings will drop to MVFR with the precip and linger into the early morning hours then return to VFR by daybreak Friday morning. Winds to become more northerly this afternoon, increasing overnight and becoming more northwesterly on Friday.

KMSP...VFR to start the period, with a few scattered clouds AOB 010 possible this afternoon. Lower confidence in seeing these led to omission from the TAF. MVFR ceilings will develop this afternoon then steadily lower, degrading around the time that rain showers move into the Twin Cities metro by 5PM. Precip will begin as rain, staying that way through the evening push. A mix with, and potentially full changeover to, wet snow this evening is likely before ending. Visibility is most likely to drop during any potential snow period. Little to no accumulation is expected. Low MVFR ceilings will remain in place into the early morning hours then conditions improve to VFR thereafter.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR. Chc IFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts bcmg SW 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts bcmg W 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.