textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like warm through Thursday. Tuesday is forecast to be the warmest day with highs in the low 90s possible.

- Diurnal thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

It's a relatively quiet early morning across MN and WI as the combination of afternoon storms on Sunday and convection in Iowa tonight limiting moisture return into MN has resulted in much less shower/storm coverage than anticipated overnight. With less convection and cloud cover overnight, that will allow us to reach our full potential for highs today, which will be mid 80s in western WI and lower 90s in western MN, a good 10 to 20 degrees above normal. These warmer temperatures will allow for instability to build today, with the HREF showing a plume of 2000-3000 j/kg of mlCAPE developing from northeast Neb to south central MN (highest CAPE values will be in northwest IA). However, this will be happening beneath rising heights. Forecast soundings continue to highlight these rising resulting in some rather stout capping inversions, which will require some forcing to overcome. SPC did bring a Marginal severe risk into south central MN, though this is highly conditional on storms happening. HREF is most robust with convective development in northwest IA, where the greatest instability is forecast to exist, with not much in the way of convection highlighted in MN. Still given the thermodynamic environment, any convective column that were to make it through the cap would require some babysitting for the threat of damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

Going into Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak backdoor cold front will be slowly sliding southwest across the area as drier air starts to push in from a developing Hudson high. Along the boundary, dewpoints will pool into the mid 60s and these dewpoints combined with highs around 90 should provide enough diurnal destabilization to support isolated to scattered afternoon/evening convection both days. Storm chances Tuesday look best near the I-94 corridor, while it shifts closer to the MN River for Wednesday.

After Wednesday, the weather becomes quiet and pleasant as dry low level flow from a stubborn Hudson high looks to keep deeper moisture west of us through the rest of May. In fact, it doesn't look like we start to lose the influence of this high until after June 4th, with a very pleasant and dry end to May and start to June expected. What happens after June 4th is still quite a bit uncertain, but from the large scale perspective, we finally see the demise of our omega block, with a western trough developing, with us transitioning to southwest flow. So as we head toward the end of the first week of June we at least look to see a pattern change, but it's still uncertain if it will mean better rain chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Not much to talk about with this TAF period with south to southwest winds expected and clear skies today. The one thing to watch will be the possibility for some convection to come up out of Iowa tonight, that could impact RWF/MKT. Right now though, the chances of storms occurring tonight are too low to include in the TAFs.

KMSP...|no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Chc aftn/evening TSRA. Wind SSW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Chc aftn/evening -TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.