textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the upper 40s/50s are expected through the rest of the work week.

- Rain is looking likely Friday into Saturday, with some periods of rain/snow mix possible during the overnight hours for western and central Minnesota.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Some light rain/drizzle has managed to make it to the surface early this morning in southern Minnesota. Temperatures are just above freezing, which has limited the amount of freezing drizzle, but a few surface obs along I-90 have been reporting unknown precip periodically. Elsewhere, patchy fog is reducing visibilities slightly ( still > 6SM) and will likely continue through sunrise, but overall any dense fog will remain confined to northern Minnesota. Clouds will thin out by this afternoon with highs in the upper 40s to near 50. Wednesday and Thursday will see highs solidly in the 50s area wide with minimal precip chances. A trough moving through Iowa late Wednesday/early Thursday may bring some light rain chances to our easternmost Wisconsin counties as it lifts northward, but for now, PoPs are very low.

Friday continues to look like the most active day of the forecast period as a developing low over the Central Plains moves to the northeast over the Great Lakes into Saturday. There will likely be two rounds of rain with this system, with the first moving in by early Friday morning. QPF amounts are quite impressive, with totals ranging from 0.25" to over 0.50" through Friday afternoon and an additional 0.25" or more overnight into Saturday morning. AI ensembles have been very consistent in their placement of the bulk of the QPF falling across Iowa and Wisconsin. Global ensembles (most notably the Euro) are slightly further northwest, which would place the heaviest precip axis across our CWA. In any case, 0.50 to 1" of QPF is not out of the question to end the week. As this system wraps in colder air Friday night, some wintry precip/snow may mix in across western and central Minnesota heading into Saturday. For now, snowfall amounts are around an inch or less, but this will continue to fluctuate over the coming days.

Temperatures rebound back into the 50s to low 60s for Sunday with more of the same expected to start the week, but beyond that, it appears that a return to more normal early/mid March temperatures is in the cards by late next week. The pattern continues to look active as well, with models suggesting another strong system is on the horizon somewhere across the central CONUS. With the colder air returning, the threat for wintry precip certainly exists, but for now, enjoy the early Spring temperatures!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 500 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Some lingering MVFR ceilings this morning that will lift later this morning. Winds light and from the south this morning shifting more to the west this afternoon before returning south tonight. Some MVFR ceilings could return tonight as the atmosphere cools.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED PM...VFR. Wind S 5 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR -RA BR. Wind SE 5-15 kts, bcmg N late.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.