textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler & dry Thanksgiving night into Friday afternoon.

- A long duration winter storm will begin to Friday night across southwestern Minnesota. Snow will spread over southern and eastern Minnesota on Saturday. Several inches of snow likely, especially along I-90.

- A Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning across along I-90 in southern Minnesota Friday night thru Saturday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued from W MN thru E MN late Friday night through Saturday evening.

- Temperatures turn colder behind the early weekend system, with highs in the teens and lows a few degrees on either side of zero Sunday and Monday. Wind chills will drop below zero both mornings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A quiet Thanksgiving day has played out across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 20s with broken stratus overhead. Skies remain scattered to broken overnight with lows in the teens. Our attention turns to a long duration snow storm Friday night through Saturday evening. The overall trends in guidance has been a slightly further south nudge over the last 24 hours. That has led to a decrease in QPF by a tenth or so - thus decreasing forecast snow amounts. Neither change is "significant" given this is a long duration light to moderate snow event outside of I-90.

An initial band of snowfall develops upstream over the Dakotas on Friday driven by a broad area of WAA overrunning the cold air, promoting a region of FGEN across the Dakotas Friday afternoon. This band of snow will move into SW MN Friday evening and slowly turn eastward Friday night as a sfc low ejects out of Colorado Saturday morning. Our low pressure will move into the Plains and the Midwest by Saturday Afternoon. This will allow for a broad area of precip to develop ahead of the low pressure. Precipitation moves back into southern Minnesota Saturday morning and continues through the evening hours. Snow will taper off Saturday night as cold air plunges into the Upper Midwest behind the sfc low. This system will be driven by the an inverted trough that allows for isentropic upglide to occur during much of the day Saturday. Snowfall will be heaviest over southern Minnesota, along I-90, where we've upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning beginning Friday evening. 5 to 8" seems likely over the course of 24 hours between Friday evening to Saturday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to the north from Lac Qui Parle county through Washington county and locations south to the WSW. Amounts in the advisory are likely to exceed 2" but fall short of 6". Probabilities here drop off after 3" at 10:1. SLRs are likely to be between 15 to 18:1 that should support a broad area of 3 to 6" with 2 to 4" on the northern perimeter of the advisory. There is high enough confidence to say the highest amounts of snow will likely fall along & to the south of the I-90 corridor with this event - supporting the decision to go WSW earlier than later. Northeast winds look like a non-issue with speeds 10 to 15 mph for the most part. This shouldn't be strong enough for any blowing snow concerns.

One concern shared across staff is the track of the sfc low through Chicago and into central Michigan is not one historically favored for significant winter storms across the MPX CWA. This will certainly limit snow rates to the lighter end in the absence of any mesoscale features. This combined with a sprawling Canadian high pressure to our north may introduce enough dry polar air to cut into the northern edge of precipitation at times Saturday. Forecast soundings still support snow - but it's something to keep in mind as we near the event. Behind our system comes a potent Canadian high pressure will support our first real taste of cold air this season. High temperatures struggle to warm into the mid teens with lows at or below zero Sunday and Monday night. We'll gradually warm up into Wednesday when there is a signal for another weak system. This doesn't look like we'll see any precipitation but instead another shot of colder air into the Upper Midwest. The next chance for any light precipitation appears to be Friday as a clipper system tracks across the region. Happy Thanksgiving.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

MVFR to VFR cigs plague most terminals at the moment, with AXN, RWF, and MKT remaining clear. Keeping an eye on potential visibility reductions at AXN Friday morning, with soundings showing the potential for a very thin layer of near surface stratus. Have kept the tempo going to reflect this. Northwest winds are diminishing, with winds to remain on the lighter side Friday morning prior to a turn out of the east/southeast. This wind shift comes ahead of an incoming weather system that will bring snow chances heading into the weekend. Should see mid to high clouds building in Friday mid- morning and gradually lower through the day, but remain VFR cigs through the majority of the taf period. West and south terminals have -SN at the back end of the period, with the system beginning to precipitate around 0Z at RWF/MKT and 06Z at MSP. Other sites to remain dry for this set, but will likely have -SN added for the 12Z tafs.

KMSP...Cigs have been slowly improving and should remain in the VFR category through the early morning period. A brief clearing remains possible Friday morning before broken mid-level clouds return by noon and lower slowly through the day. Snow arriving later Friday night into early Saturday morning. Winds will remain NW through much of Friday, and quickly transition to east/southeasterly Friday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SN. Wind NE 5-15kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to midnight CST Saturday night for Brown-Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sibley-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to midnight CST Saturday night for Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin- Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-Scott-Washington-Wright. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to midnight CST Saturday night for Blue Earth-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele- Waseca-Watonwan. WI...None.