textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Southeasterly winds gust to around 25 to 35 mph today.

- A west-to-east moving cold front will trigger a couple rounds of storms today and tonight. Severe wind and hail risk is Marginal, and localized rainfall amounts may exceed 2 inches.

- Slightly cooler temperatures are on the horizon with rain chances returning late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Surface cyclogenesis is expected off the lee of the Rockies today as a positively tilted shortwave slides northeast across the northern Plains. For us, that means winds increase out of the southeast and PWATs settle in around 1.5 to 2 inches. Overall, it will be an alright day with highs near 80 and breezy winds, but this does set the stage for storm chances late this evening and overnight as a trailing cold front sweeps through.

There is high confidence that the main front does not move through until early Tuesday morning, however there is solid agreement across guidance that there will be some flavor of pre- frontal activity today. One solution, the HRRR, has been suggesting scattered showers develop this morning across southern MN. This is reasonable given the WAA regime that will set up and we are already seeing activity in northwestern IA as of 3AM. We do not expect any showers to bubble in the same way they did yesterday morning though, with forecast soundings showing a wedge of dry air above 500mb. Regardless of any showers this morning, there is also agreement on storms developing during the afternoon or early evening timeframe across the Dakotas and moving east through central MN during the evening. The overall coverage of these evening storms vary considerably from model to model, and even run to run of each model. Our highest PoPs, and therefore highest confidence, stretches from Alexandria east towards the Mille Lacs and Kanabec county area. The nature of those pre-frontal storms will likely play a role in how widespread and intense storms are overnight along the main boundary. With storms likely being very clustered and primarily elevated, a marginal risk for severe wind and hail remains in place. Perhaps the bigger concern is for heavy rain and localized flash flooding. With the chance for 2 or even 3 periods of rain today, some areas could see amounts on the high end of QPF. As with any convective scenario, it really depends on where those storms travel over and if they persist for several hours in a given area. On the opposite end, not all locations may see rain as well, with that low confidence in overall coverage area playing a role.

Any lingering showers and cloud cover will begin to clear out by midday Tuesday, though there may be some redevelopment during the afternoon along the boundary as it stretches across southeast MN and west-central WI. Outside of this, the forecast quiets down for a nice Wednesday and Thursday. Northwest winds do increase on Wednesday, with gusts up to around 25 to 30 mph, which will advect in that drier and cooler airmass.

Long range guidance continues to trend towards a deep trough developing next weekend, which may bring a series of cold fronts Friday through Sunday. The latest NBM PoPs reflect this idea, with 10 to 30 percent chances each day. Along with any rain chance will likely come a strong push of cooler weather again, potentially dropping our highs next week to below average.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Maintained mention of precip for tonight at all WFO MPX TAF sites with this set, with some wiggle room in there for the start/end time of -RA along with wiggle room for the timing of TSRA at any given site. By and large, the rain will come this evening through the early morning hours in western MN, continuing through the early morning hours and past sunrise Tuesday morning in eastern MN into western WI. Multiple model solutions make the details still problematic to pin down but confidence is fairly high that all sites will see steady (and possibly brief mod/hvy) rain along with the potential for TSRA. Winds will remain SE throughout this duration (outside of TSRA which could make for erratic directions). Speeds will become breezy/gusty from late morning on, reaching speeds of around 15G25kts by late afternoon.

KMSP...Upper level clouds, particularly with high ceilings, will be prevalent through much of this TAF duration. VFR conditions expected through this afternoon, then conditions will deteriorate late tonight through Tuesday morning with the combination of incoming precipitation along with breezy SE to possibly S winds. MVFR conditions are very much possible by the Tuesday morning push, along with TS near the Twin Cities which could drop visibility into IFR range.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.