textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms return to the forecast Friday afternoon. A few stronger storms are possible across eastern MN into western WI.

- Unsettled pattern will support addition chances for showers and storms through the weekend.

- Near-normal temperatures for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Not much to speak on at least in the very near-term. Current satellite showing a band of scattered upper-level cirrostratus along with some patches of mid-level cumulus across portions of northern down into western MN. Earlier today, this area of cumulus has been trying to squeeze out a few droplets of precip however, they are running into dry air as noted in our 12z UA sounding. Perhaps some of you have noticed that there is a stark contrast between the hue of blue sky (or lack thereof) on the horizon as compared to yesterday at this time. This is a result of from upper-level flow carrying in PacNorthwest wildfire smoke. Skies will have a bit of haziness for at least the next 24 to 36 hours before a cold front will push everything off to the southeast. Temperatures for the remainder of today will reach near 80 degrees and perhaps may need to trend back a degree or two based off of some elevated smoke limiting "some" solar radiation's ability to heat the surface. It will feel a bit sticker too as compared to yesterday, dew points have crept back into the lower 60s as seen on western MN surface observations.

Dew points will continue to trend up tonight into tomorrow thanks to a warm advective regime out ahead of a parent troughing pattern which will span from Manitoba to Quebec. This trough features a surface cold front that is expected to sweep through the northern plains from NW to SE through the course of Friday. There has been some guidance that wants to produce precip for southwestern MN during the pre-dawn hours of Friday. However, digging into forecast soundings, enough surface dry air appears to be in place which should suppress all if any moisture from reaching the surface which seems reasonably represented by the latest NBM PoPs. The concern for strong storms starts late morning to early afternoon across eastern MN into western WI. It is expect for CI to begin mainly near the I-35 corridor as early as 11AM although more likely near 2-3PM. Mixed layer instability nearing 2000 J/kg, combined with steep lapse rates between 7-8km supports a few stronger updrafts could develop within a broken line of storms. Thus the SPC has maintained their marginal risk for severe storms mainly for areas east of line from New Ulm, MN, up to the Twin Cities Metro, then up through Taylors Falls, WI. Primary threats will mainly be an isolated damaging wind gust up to 60 mph and large hail around 1" diameter. Rainfall amounts wont be too exciting with areas seeing a few hundredths to a couple tenths of a inch with locally higher amounts limited to any stronger cells.

After the cold front shoves off to our south and east Friday night, we will receive a short break from the sticker conditions on Saturday. At least for the first half of the day, dew points fall back into the 50s with temperatures in the low to mid 80s for forecasted highs. The aforementioned troughing pattern will remain quasi-stationary over the Hudson Bay. This will transitionour upper- flow to more zonal in nature allowing for of an active weather pattern for the weekend. The next shot of rain chances comes Saturday night as a weak wave provides a glancing blow mainly along the I-90 corridor. The following wave coming in from the Dakotas looks to have better localized forcing for us thus better chances of seeing rain/storms Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR with a mix of mid to high-level clouds along with the return of elevated wildfire smoke. Used FEW250 groups to account for the elevated smoke whereas for our western sites went with SCT100 levels to account for where actual cloud cover exists. Impacts to surface visibility as a result from wildfire smoke remain very low. Breezy 18 to 25kt southerly winds will continue this afternoon as a low pressure approaches . May need to watch for fog development in the early morning hours once again. A cold front will sweep across all sites from NW to SE starting with as early as 12-15z then reaching our WI sites between 22-02z. Once the front passes, winds will decrease and shift NW'ly around 10kts. Precip development will be possible ahead of the front however confidence is highest mainly across WI sites which develop late afternoon. Thus, precip mentions will likely be introduced next routine TAF.

KMSP...Will need to keep a close eye on where convection develops in relation to a cold front that will sweep across MN/WI from NW to SE. Timing for any development would be between 16-20z. Although, confidence for direct impacts to the field was low thus, refrained for including precip mentions at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NNE 5kts. MON...Chc MVFR -TSRA early. Wind E bcmg N 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.