textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon.

- Temperatures warm well above normal next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Clear skies & light winds tonight will allow temperatures to quickly fall into the 30s, with widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected overnight. A Freeze Warning is in effect overnight through 9 AM Saturday across the entire area, with the exception of the inner core of the Twin Cities metro. Southwesterly winds could pick up earlier in the night across western Minnesota & keep temperatures a few degrees above freezing, but HRRR & AIFS forecasts still suggests freezing temperatures are likely here albeit closer to midnight instead of Saturday morning. Tonight's freeze will effectively end the growing season across much of the region, with our next shot a widespread freeze likely not coming until November, so take care to protect remaining sensitive outdoor vegetation should be protected.

The cold spell will be brief as the high pressure departs to the east and gusty southwest winds develop through Saturday morning. Wind gusts increase to 25-30 mph by the afternoon along with temperatures warm into the low 60s across western Minnesota & upper 50s elsewhere. This combination of gusty winds, warmer temperatures, & afternoon humidity values approaching 30% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. The greatest concern will be across western Minnesota, where the warmest & windiest conditions are expected along with drier fuels that missed Thursdays soaking rain.

Temperatures continue warming into next week as upper-level ridging strengthens across the central CONUS. Highs in the low to mid 70s are likely by the end of the week, around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October. Dry weather looks to dominate the period with any appreciable rain not unlikely until next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Visible satellite trends over the last 2 hours show a rapid reduction in clouds, especially across central and northern Minnesota. This clearing will spread south this afternoon, resulting in widespread clear skies and VFR conditions for the rest of the period.

Strong northerly winds continue to start the period, though will quickly drop this afternoon and become light and variable by this evening for most locations. Winds will shift out of the southwest by tomorrow morning, becoming gusty again tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Clouds may clear earlier than 21z. Northwest winds gust to 30 kts for the first hour of the TAF, then gusts are expected to weaken and become less frequent through the afternoon. Winds become light and variable by 02-03z, and then increase out of the southwest after sunrise tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago- Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice- Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Hennepin-Ramsey. WI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Saturday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk- St. Croix.