textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers is expected area wide today into Monday, along with a few thunderstorms across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- A stretch of cooler and drier weather arrives Tuesday through early next weekend. A few mornings will see lows near freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Scattered showers are still ongoing early this morning from southwestern Minnesota up through the Arrowhead. These showers shouldn't amount to much and will gradually end by mid morning. This should allow for a window of dry conditions into this evening, with southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin possibly even seeing a few breaks in the cloud cover. Increasing WAA ahead of a developing system in the Central Plains should allow highs today to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Rain chances return by this evening as the aforementioned low begins to lift to the northeast bringing another surge of Gulf moisture northward. Steady rain is expected into Monday morning with the western half of Minnesota seeing 0.5 to 1" from Sunday afternoon through early Monday, and around 0.2 to 0.3" to the east. The heaviest rain will continue to spread north and east as the low lifts into northern Iowa by early afternoon. Depending on how far north this low moves into Minnesota will determine the placement of the warm sector and the greatest threat for some strong to severe storms. The SWODY2 has a Marginal Risk for severe storms extending back to the northwest as far as St. Cloud and points south and east. Guidance suggests CAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg 30 to 40kts of shear in the warm sector would support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail will be the primary threat with any of the storms that do develop. Of course, how the morning precip plays out will also have an impact on the extent of the thunderstorm development. In any case, another round of rain will move across the CWA as the low continues to move to the northeast through early Tuesday. Storm total QPF amounts have come down a little from 24 hours ago, but widespread totals of around 1" seem reasonable with western and central Minnesota seeing closer to 1.5 to 1.75".

Rain should be wrapped up by Tuesday morning and we'll see minimal chances for precip through the rest of the period. Temperatures will remain on the cool side to close out the month with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Depending on how close to freezing temperatures get, we will likely be looking at reviving frost/freeze headlines. Looking ahead to the first weekend of May, temperatures should be on the upward trend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

For western and central MN this afternoon, periodic MVFR cigs are possible as scattered showers continue with lift along a thermal boundary. Elsewhere, expect VFR to quickly deteriorate to at least IFR tonight into early Monday morning from west to east as our next system approaches. LIFR is most likely across central and western MN Monday morning. Widespread rain will arrive with this system with stratiform rain or broken to scattered showers likely lasting for much for the region through the remainder of the period. Expect heaviest rainfall rates during tonight with visibilities dropping to 3-4sm. Over southern MN Monday morning, showers will become more scattered in nature so not as confident in persistent MVFR visibilities. But, CAMs do hint at a broken line of thunderstorms developing near RWF and MKT within the break in precip so have added PROB30s to account for this. East-northeasterly winds become east-southeasterly this evening through tonight and increase in speed as the surface low approaches. Sustained values will be 10-15 knots while gusts reach 20-25 knots.

KMSP...East-northeasterly winds near 10 knots expected into this evening before turning east-southeasterly. -SHRA should begin around 03z tonight with rain becoming more steady from midnight to early Monday morning. Cigs will drop to IFR during this time. Lower confidence in rain being continuous through Monday morning as CAMs show more scattered -SHRA. Added a PROB30 Monday afternoon for possible -TSRA. Winds will turn westerly late Monday afternoon as a cold front passes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts bcmg NW 10 kts late. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.