textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain chances continue through this evening with the next chance for rain arriving late Wednesday into Thursday.

- Below normal temperatures continue this week, with some frost chance in NW WI tonight, before a return to normal temperatures expected next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Rest of Today into Tonight... Broad synoptic lift associated with an upper low will continue to provide for clouds and light rain through this evening. The cool temperatures and rain could allow for some fog/mist to persist in areas where it rains, after the rain comes to an end. As this moves out, surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will start to take over and we will clear out. How much we clear out will have a big impact on temperatures. With cloudy skies during the day we have not been warming much at all. Where we can clear out tonight will be able to cool more due to radiational cooling. The best chances for clearing will be across Wisconsin and parts of mainly eastern Minnesota tonight. Depending on how quickly this clearing can occur will impact how cold it gets. If clearing occurs quickly temperatures could fall into the upper 30s and some frost could form. Best chance for this will be from Mille Lacs in Minnesota over to Rusk in Wisconsin, with the main cold spot being in NE MN and NW WI covered by NWS DLH.

Tuesday to Friday... With the upper low moving out and high pressure remaining nearby we should see much more sun on Tuesday. Temperatures will still be below normal in the lower 60s as the airmass doesn't change much. Wednesday and Thursday is when we will see a change in pattern and a shift in the weather. Southerly winds at 850 mb will bring some WAA. A 500 mb shortwave is expected across the Dakotas and a jet streak across the Northern Plain/Upper Midwest will provide some lift. All of this together will provide support for out next rain chance. Best chance for rain will be off to our west across the Dakota and into western Minnesota. Chance for rain will fall off to the east across Minnesota. The warmer air advecting in should allow for some increase in temperature though in to the mid 60s. By mid day Thursday ensemble chances drop quickly across the board. Temperatures similar to maybe slightly cooler on Thursday thanks to expected cloud cover. Friday will see a small chance for some additional rain across western and southern Minnesota associated with a small 500 mb disturbance. Overall very scattered ensemble signal and low confidence in this rain occurring.

Next weekend... Temperatures go into a warming trend this weekend with Sunday being our next chance for temperatures above normal. Sunday is forecast to see temperatures in the upper 60s with some chances for the low 70s. Normals today have highs in the lower 70s and by Sunday they fall into the upper 60s. Saturday will also see another 500 mb disturbance across the Dakotas, so another chance for rain with the better chances in western Minnesota similar to Wednesday/Thursday. Although this one does not fall off as fast as the chance earlier in the week, so chances to the east are not as low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

No major changes to the ongoing TAF dealing mainly with MVFR/-SHRA across the western/southern portions of the area with low VFR for the north/east. Radar echoes continue to churn leftover from the morning, however dry mid level air should keep it from reaching the ground except for AXN/RWF/MKT. MVFR should return to VFR for all sites by the late afternoon as CIGS continue to lift and eventually scatter out towards 12z, with FEW250 to SKC to end the period. Winds will have limited gusting initially at 070-100 shifting slightly to 120-150.

KMSP...Kept the persistence low VFR/high MVFR TAF going, however we might change between categories for the first 2-3 hours of the TAF before becoming mainly VFR for the remainder. The showers appearing on radar are expected to remain mostly as virga with only trace amounts reaching the surface.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR early. Wind SE 5-10kts FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.