textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog likely across southern MN/western WI overnight through Monday morning.

- Chance of rain showers Monday, followed by a transition to snow Tuesday into early Wednesday. Potential for a few inches of snow accumulation is increasing across central MN.

- Combination of falling snow and strong winds will create slow travel conditions across central MN Tuesday PM into early Wednesday.

- Much colder with additional snow chances later this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Gorgeous November Afternoon...It's hard to top this afternoon's mild and sunny weather this late in the calendar year! The warmth can be attributed to the expansion of a mid-level thermal ridge advecting 925mb T's of 8-10C in from the southwest. Surface temperatures are on track to top out in the mid 50s across much of MN, with locations along the Buffalo Ridge set to climb into the upper 50s, perhaps near 60! Record highs are within reach at MSP (55-1905) and STC (53- 2021). The beautiful weekend weather takes a turn starting tonight and the script will continue to change in a more wintry direction for the remainder of the forecast period. It all starts with the approach of an upper-low that is currently spinning over the Four Corners region. Not much change in the anticipated evolution of this feature, as guidance continues to depict an eastward track across the Great Plains and then shearing out within the upper flow over the Great Lakes. Anomalous moisture advection is underway east of the upper-low, which is depicted by low stratus/fog on visible satellite across CO/KS/MO. The moisture plume, characterized by PWATs ~200% of normal, will lift northward towards to Upper Midwest tonight. On the leading edge of the moisture plume will be a widespread bank of low stratus/dense fog that will likely advect at least into southern MN, if not farther north through the night. We'll monitor the latest trends and roll with a fog headline as needed. Forcing from the upper-low will slide across the Midwest Monday and continued isentropic ascent will support rain showers across eastern MN/western WI. Latest guidance has continued to trend eastward, so our highest PoPs are confined along and east of a line from Freeborn (MN) to Barron (WI).

Winter Weather Maker Tuesday into Wednesday...Attention turns to a longwave trough which is forecast to come ashore in the Pacific Northwest tomorrow and then deepen as is slides east over the Great Plains heading into Tuesday. A 500mb low is forecast to dig southeast across the Dakotas Monday night and strengthen into a closed low (with a slight negative tilt) over MN/WI by Tuesday night. At the surface, a ~1004mb low over central MN is forecast to undergo cyclogenesis and deepen to a stronger ~990s mb low over Lake Superior by Wednesday morning. In response, strong CAA will usher in much colder air allowing for a transition from rain to snow within the system's deformation band of precipitation. The placement of the closed upper-low is key in defining where the heaviest band of precipitation, supported by a TROWAL, will set up. Model consensus continues to suggest the core of the closed low will pass over east central MN/west central WI, which places the greatest axis of accumulating snow across north central MN (Mainly across WFO's FGF/DLH's forecast area). A Winter Storm Watch has been issued by those neighboring WFO's, which ends along our northern border. Of note, the AIFS guidance has consistently run slightly to the south of the consensus blend and there are several 12z deterministic solutions that have trended in that direction. Should this trend continue, it's possible that later forecast shifts may need to consider a Watch across our northern tier of counties, say from Douglas to Kanabec.

With the big pieces out of the way, let's discuss the anticipated timeline and snowfall expectations. Following a slight break in rain chances, we should see an increase in rain across central/portions of southern MN as Tuesday morning progresses. A transition from rain to snow will occur first across western MN heading into Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings at AXN indicate ~6-hour period where strong omega forcing is aligned with a saturated DGZ. This supports the potential for elevated snowfall rates, perhaps upwards of 0.5- 1"/hr. The key question is how efficient are the snowfall rates following the p-type transition and the duration of heavier snowfall (this is a faster moving storm system overall). The deformation band of snow will move from west to east across central MN Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Locations north of I-94 feature the highest probabilities for observing 2" or more of snow accumulation: ~60% at Alexandria & Little Falls, ~40% at St. Cloud & Mora. These probabilities drop off significantly south of I-94, however we do anticipate at least some snow across much of the forecast area as the much broader precip shield slides through.

**Quick note, given the warm antecedent ground conditions and the wetter nature to the snowfall ratios early in the event, we'd advise those looking at model output online to utilize parameters such as "depth change" versus running with one of the other model SLR options. Depth change factors in the effects of melting & compaction.**

All in all, this has the feel of an Advisory level event north of I- 94 -- it will not be a big snowmaker locally, though it will be the first measurable snowfall of the Fall for at least portions of the area and it also aligns with Holiday travel. Folks looking to head a few hours to NW/N/NE of the Twin Cities Tuesday evening will like have to contend with slow and slick travel, along with visibility reductions due to the falling snow and wind gusts upwards of 35-45 mph. The winds will strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens and will likely remain strong beyond the conclusion of falling snow.

Much Colder Later this Week (With Some Snow Possible)...Strong CAA will usher in a much colder air mass Wednesday through the remainder of the period. No major changes in the temperature trends from the NBM, as highs in the 20s/lows in the teens continue to be the theme for Thanksgiving through the upcoming weekend. We are also monitoring the potential for a sneaky snow system in the Friday/ Saturday timeframe as a wave or two slide across the remnant baroclinic zone that aims to set up across the central Plains. We have plenty of time to address this potential over the upcoming week, though I like seeing the NBM trend upward with chance PoPs for snow across southern MN Friday PM/Saturday.

Chatter About a Storm in the Extended Period...As we've discussed over the past couple of forecast shifts, there seems to be growing interest in a potential "major storm system" late next weekend into the start of the following week. We once again would advise caution into buying into any single model solution, as it's simply too far out to have much confidence. What we do know is that long range ensemble guidance has consistently advertised a longwave trough digging over the western CONUS in the Sunday timeframe. However, there are a number of ways the upper pattern may evolve beyond this, so confidence at this distance is very low. We do encourage folks who may be traveling following the Thanksgiving holiday to stay tuned to the latest forecast information throughout the week as we gain a better understanding of how the atmosphere may evolve.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR for the rest of this afternoon through the first half of tonight. Southerly winds (with a few 18-20kt gusts for AXN and RWF) will become light late tonight into early tomorrow morning. A mid-level wave approaches from the southwest tonight which will increase moisture content across most sites except for AXN. Dense Fog will begin developing around 10-12z Monday morning. IFR impacts are growing increasingly likely at MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU. Decided to keep STC under MVFR category for now, but may have to reduced IFR should RH trend farther north than anticipated. Mixing tomorrow morning will be limited thus rapid improvement of vsby/cigs does not appear likely. Therefore anticipate conditions to linger in IFR/MVFR through the rest of the TAF period.

KMSP...Aside from the dense fog and IFR impacts, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR/IFR. -RA changing to -SN in evening. Wind bcmg WNW 10-15G25kts. WED...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-20G30 kts THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.