textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Next chance for showers & thunderstorms comes Friday afternoon into Saturday.

- Well-above normal temperatures for the latter half of the Memorial Day weekend through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

High pressure slides off to our east today through Friday, with southeasterly winds warming temperatures back up to near-normal values in the mid to upper 60s. Our next chance for rain comes Friday afternoon through Saturday as a shortwave trough digs along the US-Canada border & a weak surface low track east through the central Plains into the mid-Mississipp valley. Enough instability will be present ahead of the system Friday afternoon & evening to likely generate some thunder across western Minnesota, along with most of the rainfall from this system. Lighter rain showers will then linger into Saturday morning as the system exits the region off to the Great Lakes. Rainfall amounts Friday night look to be on the order of 0.5-1" across western Minnesota, decreasing to 0.1-0.25" across western Wisconsin.

Guidance has sped up the exit of the system on Saturday, meaning we'll have abetter shot at clouds clearing out by the afternoon & temepratures warming into the upper 60s & even low 70s Even warmer conditions develop over the latter half of the Memorial Day weekend as pronounced ridging develops over the central Plains. Highs warm into the 70s Sunday & into the 80s on Monday, with even warmer temperatures expected through next week as the ridging continues to amplify & ensemble guidance highlights temperature anomalies of 10-15 degrees above normal (mid to upper 80s for highs). The rest of the memorial day weekend looks to be dry after saturday morning, but we'll have to monitor the potential for a weak upper level disturbance bringing a chance for thunderstorms sometime Sunday night into Monday. Beyond this weekend, no major systems or widespread chances for rain are expected until at least next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR with light and variable winds this morning. SE'ly Winds will pick up and become more sustained mid to late morning around 5-10kts with gusts up to around 15-20kts by this afternoon. A mix of clouds and sun can be expected with mid- level clouds prevailing through the period after sunrise.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. PM MVFR/-SHRA. Wind E 10-15 kts. SAT...MVFR/-SHRA early. Wind S 5 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.