textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers dissipate this evening. A few rumbles of thunder possible late this afternoon.

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms expected Friday evening across central MN & western WI. The strongest storms could contain hail.

- Below-nromal temperatures expected into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A few breaks in the cloud cover have allowed for pockets of heating & instability to develop, & as a result we are seeing a few thunderstorms embedded within the bands of light showers this afternoon. Not expecting any hail or wind out of these storms, but could see some lighting at times for any outdoor events. The light rain will come to an end this evening as the surface low to our south continues to move off to the east. Cooler air continuing to stream into the region will keep overnight lows in the 50s.

More sunshine is expected Friday which will allow for warmer temperatures near 80 during the afternoon. Even cooler & drier air arrives during the evening as a cold front drops south out of Canada. We'll likely see a band of scattered showers & thunderstorms develop along the forcing ahead of this front during the late afternoon & evening, most likely across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. High-resolution ensembles show 500-1000 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE ahead of the front along with 40-50 kts of deep shear, & most high-resolution models do depict a few rotating thunderstorms developing in this environment. The surface-based instability will probably be too paltry to result in much of a wind or tornado threat, but some hail with the strongest storms certainly seems likely along with the lighting risk. The thunderstorm threat along the front mostly ends by midnight, but another round of scattered showers & a few thunderstorms looks possible as heating ramps up again Saturday morning across southern Minnesota. This precipitation should end before midnight & then we're expecting a pleasantly cool Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Below-normal temperatures are expected through the weekend into the middle of next week as broad troughing & northwest flow aloft persists over the Great lakes region. Daytime temperatures will likely be up around 70 degrees while overnight lows fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Dew point values will be much more comfortable as well. Some light rain is possible Monday night into Tuesday but otherwise we should remain dry during this stretch of cooler & drier weather. Temperatures are likely to remain on the cool end later in the week but ensemble guidance shows more perturbations in the northwest flow aloft, meaning we could see more chances for widespread rainfall & thunderstorms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Pretty impressive wave on satellite and radar is moving across the Twin Cities at the start of this period, and will continue to push showers across western WI through 3z. After that, skies will clear out tonight, setting the stage for a day of deep mixing on Friday. This deep mixing will result in gusty winds developing by late morning, with some gusts to between 30 and 35 kts possible across MN. By the end of the period, we'll start to see scattered showers developing across central MN between 20z and 22z, though coverage of those showers is expected to ramp up between 00z and 06z Saturday, so in the 24 to 30 hour window of this period.

KMSP...Most hi-res models show showers and a few TS working across the the region between roughly 00z and 08z Sat. Went with prevailing shra starting at 1z, with a prob30 for TS based on when the HREF shows its best lightning probs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.