textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms early this morning with the next chance for showers and thunderstorms coming on Thursday.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for critical fire weather across parts of western and southern Minnesota this afternoon and evening, avoid burning in these areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A low along the international border will move into the Great Lakes this afternoon. Early this morning the position of the low puts much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin into the warm sector. This has allowed for isolated showers and thunderstorms to occur. However, there remains significant dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. First, this dry air has been causing most of the rain to dry up before it reaches the surface. Second, this keeps LCLs high and instability very elevated. This means the main impact has been thunder and some small pea sized hail. This will continue until the trailing cold front associated with this low passes through later this morning. Behind the frontal passage we will see gusty winds as colder air advects in aloft and the surface heats the lower atmosphere thanks the diurnal hearting to promote ample mixing. The dry air present from this morning also does not change thus the critical fire weather conditions. While the worst will be across western and southern Minnesota it will be elevated everywhere and today will not be a good time to burn anywhere this afternoon and evening. The loss of daytime heating will inhibit the mixing and bring RH values up ending the fire weather risk late this evening.

High pressure moves in for Wednesday giving us a pretty nice day with calmer winds, sunny conditions, and highs in the lower 70s. This doesn't last as our next system moves in on Thursday. Our next round of rain will be associated with a frontal passage associated with a low that is expected to move across the Canadian Prairies to our north. Compared to 24 hours ago ensembles have started to cluster in a way that makes this rain event seem more likely to occur. Much more saturated model sounding as well with deterministic runs have continued to increase confidence. One other area to watch will be to determine thunderstorm chances. Currently, instability looks limited and does not necessarily overlap with the best moisture and forcing. Still thunderstorms remain a chance and it is something we will be keeping an eye on. This also looks to be the start of a more active period continuing into the weekend. Still a ton of spread here, but a good sign of building moisture and warmth to get us out of the frost and fire weather pattern that we had been stuck in to start the month.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

The cold front has moved through meaning no -SHRA is expected during this period as the main focus will be the increasing winds behind the front. Wind gusts increase to 30-35kts after 17z with direction sticking at 300-330, with gusts diminishing after 02z. Due to the efficient mixing, a layer of FEW to BKN 060 level cumulus is possible after 18z, especially for MSP/RNH/EAU where saturation is a better stronger within the forecast soundings. Winds will drop back after 02z and continue to do so into the end of the period, with gusts disappearing after 06-08z.

KMSP...A brief period of LLWS is possible but not included within the TAF from 02-05z during the brief window where surface level winds weaken but the low level jet has yet to fully exit. Confidence was too low to include this window in the current TAF, but may need to be added in future TAF periods.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G30kts. FRI...VFR. Wind W 15-20G30kts. SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind W 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Faribault-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood- Renville-Sibley-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.