textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- More smoke possible across far eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin into tomorrow, see Air Quality Alert for more information.

- Next chance for strong to severe storms late tonight and Monday afternoon.

- Turning cooler with near or slightly below normal temperatures Tuesday with the hot temperatures returning by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A shortwave will track from Alberta down into the northern Great lakes to start this week. This will bring additional heat in today and tomorrow with cooler air moving in starting on Tuesday. This overall pattern will also allow for smoke to spread across much of Wisconsin and could possibly move into some of eastern Minnesota as well. Recent HRRR smoke runs continue to favor Wisconsin for the most likely impacts. Consult Air Quality Alerts from the WI DNR and MPCA for more details. The surface low associated with the shortwave will stay north of the international border, but the fronts will extend into the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. With a favorable convective environment ahead of the fronts storms are expected to initiate in the Dakotas today and across the Midwest tomorrow. Of importance for us will be the ability of the storms from the Dakotas to maintain themselves with the assistance of the LLJ as they head into Minnesota tonight. The most likely scenario for strong to severe storms for this round would be upscale growth into an MCS. Due to this storm mode, the main risk would be damaging winds. Then on Monday what will be the position of the fronts as CI starts to occur? Depending on how the morning plays out recovery could stall CI long enough for the front to be past us. Looking into CAM guidance there remains a spread on where CI occurs with the highest chances generally out in western Wisconsin where SPC has an enhanced risk (level 3/5). Ample CAPE and favorable shear would support supercells with all modes of severe weather in play (tornado, large hail, and damaging winds). If the morning storms fail to come to together the environment could be favorable earlier in the day and that could allow CI to occur sooner and farther west into parts of eastern Minnesota where SPC has a slight risk (level 2/5). Warm air advection ahead the frontal passage will also see heat index values into the 90s, possibly approaching 100 in southern Minnesota.

Behind the frontal passage temperatures will be much cooler on Tuesday with highs slightly below normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Zonal flow also keeps the overall synoptic pattern looking quiet. This will be a nice break for everyone after a stretch of seeing frequent heat and/or storms. Looking towards the global ensembles there remains a lot of spread on when the next round of rain or storms will occur. Some clustering around Friday, but it is still widely scattered with little clustering. So the low PoPs from NBM continue to seem reasonable for this period. What does have more confidence within the ensemble systems is a warming trend towards the end of the week. We could very well see a return to 90s by the next weekend with about two thirds of the global ensemble members having a high of 90 or greater next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Smoke will cause low VFR/high MVFR visibility this morning for MSP, RNH, and EAU. Smoke will linger the longest at EAU. Cooler temperatures in western Wisconsin this morning has provided for some fog coverage which has impacted EAU. This should improve as we warm this morning and allow it to return to a smoke based visibility reduction. Tonight storms will be firing across the Dakotas and will likely move into Minnesota. Due to confidence on timing and uncertainty on track across Minnesota will keep at PROB30 for now and allow for future TAFs to hone in on timing and location as we get into the critical first 6 hours period.

KMSP...Smoke will cause some visibility reductions this morning to low VFR/high MVFR around 5-6 SM. Still looking at a chance for storms to move through tonight, thankfully current timing should have storms pass during a light traffic time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON PM...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind S to W 10-15G25 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. WED...VFR. Wind N/NW 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.