textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of light snow will produce up to an inch or so of accumulation along and north of I-94 today.

- Colder to open 2026, with below normal temperatures through Saturday. Temperatures warm up heading into next week.

- Several additional chances for light snow through early next week, however significant accumulation is not expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Another morning and yet another round light snow is moving across eastern ND and northwest MN -- the only difference is that it's now 2026! For the third consecutive day we are tracking a band light snow capable of producing up to an inch or so of accumulation across central & eastern MN and western WI. Driving the snow chance is an impulse within the northwesterly flow aloft. Supported by f-gen, the band will translate from northwest to southeast along a baroclinic gradient this morning through early afternoon. Similar to the past two days, we anticipate a large footprint of snowflakes and minor accumulations, though given the nature of the setup there will likely be one localized narrow band of 1-2" possible. It looks like the best chance for this to occur will be northeast of I-94 in eastern MN/western WI. Following the trends of the recent days, we have boosted PoPs well above blended guidance due to the high PoP/low QPF nature of this round of precipitation. PoPs fall off quickly southwest of a line from Pope to Steele counties. Once again, we'll have enough snow to reintroduce slick travel conditions on the roads.

Stratus within a region of mid-level warm advection preceding today's band of light snow has worked to blanket the boundary layer and and limit cooling. 2 AM temperatures are running well above forecast, so have collaborated with neighboring WFO's to make a noted increase in the the morning lows/hourly temperatures through midday to reflect these trends. The coldest temperatures will only be a few degrees below zero in isolated spots. Despite running warmer early today, it's still going to be a cold day overall, with afternoon highs ranging between 10-15 degrees.

Northwesterly flow will keep temperatures below normal Friday and Saturday. The next clipper is progged to move across northern MN late tomorrow night into Saturday morning. NBM's PoPs are not overly excited with the prospects of snow across central MN/western WI, though the potential for another low QPF/higher PoP scenario may signal the need for a boost in the PoPs north of I-94. Still wouldn't be looking at much in the way of snow accumulation across our CWA in this scenario. The upper-flow takes on a more westerly look heading into the second half of the weekend. Guidance advertises a shortwave translating east within the flow over the northern Plains Sunday and driving precipitation chances across the Upper Midwest Sunday night into Monday. Some uncertainty in the p-type given rising thicknesses and increasing warm advection/SW flow out of the Great Plains. We did have some freezing rain populate in our extended forecast, but opted to remove it and display all snow in the grids until confidence increases one way or another this weekend. Forecast uncertainty climbs heading into the middle of next week as guidance varies significantly on the timing and placement of any additional precipitation chances within largely zonal flow aloft. There is higher confidence in an above normal temperature trend (highs in the low to mid 30s) for much of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Light snow continues to slowly make it way southeast and is now left pestering RNH, EAU, and just grazing MSP. Snow is expected to clear closer to 21-22z timeframe for the WI sites as a few additional bands of snow sink their way south out of northwestern MN. Improvement to MVFR cigs will be slow. RAP guidance is going much more aggressive across all sites maintaining MVFR cigs which does look to make sense given current satellite imagery. Therefore slowed timing for scattered cigs until early Friday morning. Winds will start of the west- southwest between 5-10 kts, and then veer northwesterly overnight at or about 5 kts.

KMSP...The remnant light snow currently over the metro should just graze MSP to the north and east. Although the snow has ended, the flight category is expected to remain in MVFR through at least the first half of tonight. Guidance has trended slower on removing low- level stratus thus have pushed back scattered cigs until after 9z onward. Winds will start out of the west-southwest then becoming light and veer to the northwest overnight. Winds will remain northwesterly through the rest of the period through tomorrow between 5-10kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. S Chc -SN/MVFR. Wind variable 5 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Chc -SN/MVFR. Wind SW at 5 kts, bcmg SE at 5

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.