textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are possible through early this evening which will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

- More chances for rain this weekend and early next week with temperatures remaining above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have already developed early this afternoon across western MN. One storm that promoted Severe Thunderstorm Warnings was an elevated supercell thanks to MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. Extensive stratus and fog across most of central and western MN has kept temperatures stuck in the 50s, whereas farther south and east temperatures are approaching 70 where skies cleared early this morning. As the short wave continues east this afternoon, additional development is expected across the warm sector. Elevated storms have proven capable of becoming well established across western MN already. The question is not whether we will get widespread storms, but whether they will become surface-based and therefore capable of tornadoes. Low level instability is weak due to neutral lapse rates and marginal surface moisture. Also, the widespread nature of the development may further negatively impact any available low level instability. Bottom line, expect storms and be aware of a couple that may pose a threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, especially if the storms remain somewhat discrete. This remains a conditional threat.

High pressure will build in for the rest of the week, then settle over the East Coast this weekend. Return flow will bring a chance of showers Friday night and Saturday. A larger scale system still looks to take shape over the Rockies this weekend and then pull across the Plains early next week. Some guidance cuts the system off over the Plains with a large precipitation shield to the north and east of the center. Others are more progressive. Regardless how it eventually unfolds, more rain should be coming next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Combination of VFR to IFR categories depending on what airport you're looking at this afternoon. Eastern sites have cleared out from the cloud cover while western sites continue to struggle from the low MVFR/IFR cigs. This will aid in quite a thermal gradient and where we expect stronger TSRA to occur this afternoon/evening. Tempos for TSRA have been adjusted back an hour or so based off of latest CAM trends. As of now the strongest TSRA is expected from MSP, RNH, EAU, and potentially STC with timing between 22-01z. Southerly winds increase as warm advection moves in from the south gusting to near 20kts at times. Once the front and precip pass, winds shift NW'ly to near 10kts. Cigs and vsby will clear out back into VFR between 03-07z from west to east.

KMSP...Aside from what has been mentioned above, did delay timing for TSRA back between 23 to 01z. Southerly winds will shift NW'ly once the front passes this evening. Cigs improve back into VFR after 5z becoming mostly clear the remainder of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.