textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold & dry through Monday.

- Chances for snow Tuesday & Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Cold & dry northwest flow persists over the Upper Midwest, so we're looking at a very similar day to yesterday - albeit with more low-level cloud cover which will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. Afternoon temperatures may not rise out of the single digits across western Minnesota, but another day with highs in the teens is expected elsewhere. Temperatures could drop well-below zero overnight across portions of western & central Minnesota if clouds are able to clear out before dawn, but more likely we will see lows end up within a few degrees of zero. This regime continues through Monday with below- normal temperatures & dry conditions, outside of some flurries at times with the persistent stratus.

Midweek, the flow aloft becomes more active as strong northwesterly flow develops with a 150+ kt jet streak setting up over the northern plains & nosing into the Upper Midwest. Numerous disturbances/weak clippers are possible with this flow regime aloft, but guidance remains spread on when & where any of these systems may track midweek. Confidence is higher in the forecast for Tuesday, where the majority of deterministic & ensemble guidance depicts a weak shortwave tracking across northern Minnesota & Wisconsin during the day. This should bring a few hours of light snow to central Minnesota & western Wisconsin with amounts generally expected to be around an inch or less. Wednesday's system has the potential to be more potent as the jetstreak over the northern tier of the CONUS reaches its max intensity, although guidance remains widely spread on where & when the shortwave from this upper level forcing may track. We've seen a notable southward shift with the usually steady AIFS guidance, which currently places the most likely snowfall completely south of the area across South Dakota & Iowa. Still a system to keep an eye on given the potential for plowable snow of 3"+ wherever the band of snow sets up, but there's just too much spread in the guidance at this time to have a good idea on just where that may fall.

Temperatures through next week take on an up & down trend, with aboven-normal temperatures likely south of the expected track of the clipper on Tuesday, followed by cooler temperatures Wednesday (especially where we see the band of precipitation from the clipper). Temperatures bounce back to end the week with well- above-normal temperatures likely Friday as ensemble guidance shows temperature anomalies of 10 degrees or more above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Widespread bank of MVFR stratus blankets the Upper Midwest this morning. The stratus is forecast to stick around for much of the day with continued cyclonic northwesterly flow in place. Some uncertainty exists in how persistent stratus will be at AXN/RWF early in the period, however satellite shows more stratus across ND that is forecast to advance SE towards those terminals. The expansion of ridging will flush the stratus to the east tonight and have opted to take a blended approach to timing out improvements in the 12z package. As a result, the TAFs show MVFR stratus scattering out between 02-6z from NW to SE. Would anticipate this part of the forecast will need some improvements in upcoming TAF issuances. Flurries are possible anywhere the stratus is in place, though no accumulation is expected. Northwesterly winds will remain breezy today and will gust upwards of 25-30kts.

KMSP...MVFR stratus ~025k feet looks to prevail for most of the day. Breezy northwesterly winds will gust upwards of 25-30kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind N becoming S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW becoming WNW 10-15kts. WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.