textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly tonight with lows in the 40s, & upper 30s possible across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Widespread soaking rain is likely Friday into early Saturday, with the heaviest amounts increasingly favored across far- southern Minnesota.

- Quiet weather returns for much of the weekend, with another chance for showers Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

High pressure moves overhead tonight with clear skies & light winds setting up a chilly night for mid-September. Lows in the low to mid 40s are expected across much of the area, with upper 30s possible in the typical cooler locations of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The combination of light winds, clear skies, & lingering moisture from yesterdays rain could also result in some patchy fog overnight, mainly in rural valleys & other low- lying areas. Wednesday stays mostly quiet, although a weak shortwave moving through southwest flow will likely generate scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area during the later afternoon & evening. Thursday looks dry & a little warmer as warm advection increases ahead of the next system, with highs returning to the mid to upper 70s.

Friday continues to look like the main period of interest this week as a stronger shortwave moves out of the Plains & a 40 kt low- level jet pulls anomalously high moisture northwards into the region. Rain should spread from southwest to northeast during the morning, becoming widespread by afternoon & continuing into Friday night before tapering early Saturday. PWAT values around or above 2" should support efficient rainfall rates, so confidence is fairly high that much of southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin sees a soaking rain. Where the heaviest axis sets up remains the big question. Some deterministic guidance still spreads a swath of 1-3" through much of the area, while a growing number of ensemble members favor a farther south solution with the greatest amounts closer to the Minnesota/Iowa border. The AI guidance, particularly the AIFS, has also consistently favored this more southern placement. Thus, confidence is increasing that far- southern Minnesota has the best chance for the heaviest rain, potentially extending eastwards into southwest Wisconsin, while amounts could drop off more quickly farther north towards central Minnesota if this southern trend holds. Latest NBM probabilities at least support widespread precipitation along & south of Interstate 94, so even locations north of the favored heavy-rain axis still have a good shot at measurable rain.

A few stronger thunderstorms cant be ruled out near the surface warm front, but this threat will depend greatly on how far north the warm sector can reach. Current guidance generally keeps the front near the Minnesota/Iowa border, which would keep the better instability & severe potential near or south of far- southern Minnesota. Heavy rain therefore remains the more likely concern for our area. Much of the weekend trends drier behind the system, although a weakening upper low approaching from the Dakotas could bring scattered showers back into the region Sunday. Temperatures remain near normal through the period with highs generally in the upper 60s to 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR through the period. Breezy northwesterly wind gusts between 20- 25kts should continue decreasing over the next couple of hours then becoming light and variable overnight. Most sites can expected clearer skies tonight with exception of MKT and EAU who may have some remnant scattered high clouds. With little wind and mainly clearer skies in tonight's forecast, we will need to watch for the potential of MVFR fog/mist development early tomorrow morning near RNH and EAU. By tomorrow morning, winds shift southeasterly and increase to at or about 5kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA PM. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind NE 5kts. FRI...MVFR chc IFR w/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.