textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Southern MN into west-central WI will see the next chance of rain during Thursday as a system passes to our south.

- Our first shot at widespread sub-freezing temperatures is possible Saturday morning.

- Above-normal temperatures return to start next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Our entire CWA will be much cooler today as post-cold frontal air continues to push east into WI. Low stratus will also characterize most of today, limiting daytime heating. Highs today will only reach the low to mid 50s across western and central MN while areas to the south and east will see low to mid 60s. The stratus will begin to break apart as we progress through Tuesday night. Overnight lows will be chilly for western and central MN with mid to upper 30s expected. To the areas south and east, low to mid 40s are forecast. Temperatures will stabilize Wednesday into Thursday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The chilly overnight lows of mid to upper 30s will be more widespread over the northern half of the CWA Wednesday night.

Our next opportunity for rain arrives during Thursday morning as a cutoff low over the central Rockies moves northeast into the Central Plains. The rain shield north of the low's warm front will spread northeast into southern MN and west-central WI during Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough coming out of the western Canadian Prairies within the northern jetstream will dig southeast into the Northern Plains. Forecast models show the cutoff low and trough eventually phasing together, but likely not until reaching the Lower Great Lakes region. Thus, the odds of western and central MN receiving rainfall Thursday look very low. Overall, places that do receive rain shouldn't expect a soaker, but 0.25" to perhaps 0.5" is possible. After the trough moves east, it is forecast to amplify into the Ohio Valley. In turn, this will set up northerly flow over the Upper Midwest bringing a brief cold spell to end the work week. Low to mid 50s highs are forecast Friday, but more importantly most of the CWA could see sub-freezing lows Friday night. The potential for a hard freeze will need to be monitored, especially by those with sensitive vegetation outside.

Guidance suggests that the upper-level pattern will remain progressive as large-scale ridging moves east into the north- central CONUS, kicking the trough east also. Temperatures will rebound starting Saturday with mid to upper 60s (and possibly even some low 70s) possible by Sunday. Long-range guidance favors ridging across the Northern Plains to continue into mid- next week, greatly limiting rain chances and keeping temperatures above normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

MVFR stratus continues to reside across all TAF sites at initialization, though partial clearing per visible satellite imagery looks to be moving in from eastern SD into SW MN. That said, stratus is expected to return later this evening and remain across the area this evening through the overnight period, including returning to MVFR after ceilings to rise to VFR levels late this afternoon into this evening. MVFR stratus will then persist through sunrise Wednesday morning followed by partial clearing going into the afternoon hours. Winds will continue from the NW in the 5-10kt range through this evening then become light/variable overnight thru sunrise.

KMSP...Ceilings will remain between 2-3 kft through late this afternoon, then are expected to barely rise over that level this evening into the early overnight hours before falling back to MVFR levels overnight through late Wednesday morning. It does not appear to be until Wednesday afternoon that skies will partially clear out to allow for VFR conditions to return. Winds will be straight down the 30s into this evening, then slowly veer to a N direction overnight through most of Wednesday. Speeds throughout will range 5-10kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind lgt & vrbl bcmg NW 8-12 kts. FRI...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NW 15-20G25-30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind 10kts increasing to 15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.