textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer today with one more round of frosty air this weekend before a more sustained warm up next week.

- Some light rain is possible along a passing cold front tonight into early Saturday for central Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

- Better chance for more widespread rainfall arrives late Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

This morning's frost advisory looks to be on track as temperatures have fallen across much of western Wisconsin into parts of east central Minnesota. Farther west and south some cloud cover and warmer air aloft has helped keep temperatures warmer. Moving on to today, it looks like a brief warm up thanks to some weak WAA. How strong this WAA is today will be key in determining how windy it gets. If it ends up on the stronger side, like some of the high resolution guidance like the HRRR suggest, we may be able to mix down winds from as high as 700 mb. This would have winds over performing the current forecast. Importantly this would take the elevated fire weather conditions and could move it into more critical fire weather. All together this afternoon into evening does not look like a good day for burning. Our brief warm up will come to an end as a cold front passes through tonight into tomorrow morning. With this frontal passage the key question will be moisture. Overnight timing of the frontal passage will help by having temperatures at a diurnal minimum as a afternoon passage would very likely be dry due to a lack of humidity. Even with the overnight timing, the farther south the more low level dry air there will be. Currently expecting the best chance to see overnight rain along and north of the I-94 corridor. Further south chances drop off as this dry air starts to win out more and more.

Behind the frontal passage will be a cooler weekend due to the CAA. This keeps highs more in the 50s with some 60s across parts of southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Generally higher surface pressure, especially on Sunday night, will provide for clear skies that will enable radiational cooling. This will bring lows down into the 30s Saturday and Sunday night. Both nights will likely see frost and some freezes will also be possible, especially on Sunday night into Monday morning.

Next week will see a push of more sustained warm air across the Upper Midwest. Guidance does not favor frost any morning next week past Monday morning and CPC outlooks favor above normal temperatures for the rest of the month. So it is looking increasingly likely that frost and freeze season ends on Monday morning. The other story next week will be the early week short wave trough moving through. There is strong agreement amongst the global ensembles that a widespread rain event will occur here. Current QPF amounts do not look high with up to around a tenth the most common although there is around a quarter to a third of the global ensemble membership higher than that depending on location across our area. Behind this trough a ridge looks to build in midweek. This will help enable widespread 70s and lower 80s by the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR is expected for all sites throughout the TAF, with the exception of a chance for -SHRA towards the end of the period which may result in some brief MVFR visibility. Winds begin below 5kts variable in some spots but generally at 220-250, shifting towards 260-290 as they increase to 10-15kts after 18z. Gusts to 20-25kts are possible after winds increase, diminishing after 03z as we lose mixing from daylight. Prob30 groups for -SHRA moving through have been added to most sites except for RWF/MKT where the chance is less than 20 percent.

KMSP...Introduced the prob30 window for -SHRA from 09 to 13z, with the most likely period for visibility reductions from 11-13z. Whether or not we see accumulation will depend on if we manage to saturate the lower levels, with any accumulations under a few hundredths of an inch.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind SE to NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chisago-Isanti. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa- Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.