textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- One more day of well-above normal temperatures today.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible early tomorrow morning across southeast MN & western WI.

- Increasing likelihood of wintry precipitation with two systems this week (Thursday & this weekend).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Enjoy one last warm day today because cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday & stick around for a while, along with the increasing likelihood that we see a return of wintry weather later in the week. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s this afternoon across most of the southern 1/3 of Minnesota & western WI this afternoon, but temperatures will stay much cooler across central & MN north of a nearly stationary boundary stretched over the middle of the state. Temperatures do eventually cool off this evening as the front sags farther south & Easterly to northeasterly advect in much cooler air off of Lake Superior. Overnight into tomorrow morning - a strengthening low-level jet could generate isolated thunderstorms where it interacts with the departing front over southeast Minnesota & western Wisconsin. However, most of the latest high- resolution model runs show little, if anything, in terms of convection developing so chances are probably more likely that we remain dry through tomorrow.

A much more active upper air pattern develops Tuesday through he rest of the week, as the jet stream amplifies along the US- Canada border & deep troughing develops later in the week into the weekend. First off, this will return to temperatures to seasonably cool values midweek, then likely well-below normal later in the week/weekend when the troughing is centered over the Upper Midwest. Second, we continue to monitor the potential for a number of weather systems as the pattern becomes more active, with increasing signals towards the potential for wintry weather present in the best-performing AI guidance. The first of these systems comes late Wednesday through Thursday, as a shortwave pivots northwards into the Upper Midwest from the central plains. Temperatures look to be more moderate with this system, meaning any chance for wintry weather would likely be limited to the nighttime hours, however the deterministic & ensemble AIFS guidance both indicate high probabilities for a swath of a few inches of snow setting up from southern & central MN into western Wisconsin. Legacy deterministic guidance remains much more widely spread on the track of the precipitation & whether temperatures will be cold enough for any wintry precip, but the best performing legacy guidance have all began trending colder over the last 12 hrs & also show chances for accumulating snow. Can't totally rule out some freezing rain potential, but forecast soundings are pretty marginal regarding temperatures aloft & there doesn't seem to be any significant low- level warm advection that would create a strong signal for any appreciable icing.

Another, potentially stronger, system looks likely over the weekend as troughing deepens over the central CONUS, possibly creating a stacked upper level & surface low in the strongest deterministic solutions. Similar trends have been noted with this system where the AI guidance shows impressively high probabilities for accumulating snow, highest across northern/central Minnesota & northern WI, while the legacy guidance remains much more spread (but also trending colder/snowier). Still too early to talk much about amounts & specific placement of the potential snow with these two systems, but the colder trend in the legacy guidance over the last 12-24 hrs along with the strong signal present in the incredibly high-performing AI guidance means don't put those snow shovels away just yet.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 602 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Winds will be the main forecast concern through this evening as VFR conditions are expected during this time. A stationary front is currently stretched from west-to-east across south-central MN. Northeasterly winds are to the north of the front while southeasterly winds are to the south. This front should lift slightly northward into this afternoon, reaching a west-east line from CNB-MSP-RNH. 5-10 knot winds will turn southeasterly as this front passes this afternoon. However, the front should sag south tonight, causing north-northeasterly winds to prevail into Tuesday morning. As for clouds, CAMs and forecast soundings do show low-level moistening occurring after 08Z. Depending on how quickly this moistening occurs MVFR cigs may occur prior to the end of the period early Tuesday morning. However, did not have enough confidence to include a PROB30 so for now just went scattered near 1500 feet.

KMSP...Current winds should gain a more northeasterly component as we get to mid-morning, but winds will switch to east- southeasterly into mid-afternoon as the front lifts north. North-northeasterly winds near 10 knots expected tonight before becoming northwesterly later Tuesday morning. MVFR cigs seem likely after 08Z Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR early. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. WED...VFR, chc -SN/MVFR late. Wind E 5-10 kts. THU...VFR/MVFR. Chc -SHRA/SN. Wind NE 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.