textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are possible through early this evening which will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

- More chances for rain this weekend and early next week with temperatures remaining above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have already developed early this afternoon across western MN. One storm that promoted Severe Thunderstorm Warnings was an elevated supercell thanks to MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. Extensive stratus and fog across most of central and western MN has kept temperatures stuck in the 50s, whereas farther south and east temperatures are approaching 70 where skies cleared early this morning. As the short wave continues east this afternoon, additional development is expected across the warm sector. Elevated storms have proven capable of becoming well established across western MN already. The question is not whether we will get widespread storms, but whether they will become surface-based and therefore capable of tornadoes. Low level instability is weak due to neutral lapse rates and marginal surface moisture. Also, the widespread nature of the development may further negatively impact any available low level instability. Bottom line, expect storms and be aware of a couple that may pose a threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, especially if the storms remain somewhat discrete. This remains a conditional threat.

High pressure will build in for the rest of the week, then settle over the East Coast this weekend. Return flow will bring a chance of showers Friday night and Saturday. A larger scale system still looks to take shape over the Rockies this weekend and then pull across the Plains early next week. Some guidance cuts the system off over the Plains with a large precipitation shield to the north and east of the center. Others are more progressive. Regardless how it eventually unfolds, more rain should be coming next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Two lines of storms are moving E/NE across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin to start the period. The main cold front is associated with the trailing line, with winds shifting out of the northwest behind it. Expect a period of MVFR cigs to move in along and behind the main front, eventually clearing out later tonight. The rest of the period will feature persistent NW winds at or below 10 kts and mostly clear skies.

KMSP...Nearby TS threat will be short-lived to start the period. Light showers are expected to only last an hour at most, and with MVFR cigs and NW winds following behind the front.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.