textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and mild period expected with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

As the last of the rain/snow mix exits east, we shift back to a relatively quiet stretch of weather under mostly zonal flow aloft. A shortwave will pass to our north Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a slight chance for rain to portions of central MN and northwest WI along a cold front. Forecast soundings suggest that dry air above 700mb may limit cloud ice formation, which would result in a lower ceiling for any rain in an environment where QPF is only in the hundredths at best.

Ensemble guidance is fairly uniform, suggesting persistent highs and lows roughly 5-10 degrees above normal all the way through at least the weekend. A couple strong cyclones form off the Rockies, but they should stay closer to the Gulf than to us with cutoff flow stretching as far south as Mexico.

The first real sign of a big shakeup to the pattern does not come until around Thanksgiving Day. Ensemble mean temperatures drop about 5-10 degrees below normal, with the potential for northwest flow to develop aloft. This will be the period to watch, but for now it should be a quiet late fall week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Have run with all TAFs dry as the last little swath of -SN near EAU is quickly shrinking and will no longer be an issue come initialization time of the 18/18z TAF set. The tricky part will be how far south the clearing line evident on visible satellite imagery sags south. RWF-MKT-EAU look to have stratus clouds linger into the evening hours while the remaining TAF sites will at least partially clear out. Another surge of low level moisture late tonight through late Wednesday morning will result in MVFR ceilings returning, potentially down to IFR for most MN TAF sites. ENE winds under 10kts will go light/variable this evening through late Wednesday morning, picking up lightly from the south.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected at the start, lasting into the early morning hours with partial clearing mainly from late this afternoon onward. Another round of lower stratus returns overnight, a few hours prior to sunrise and ceiling will continue to drop through late Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW bcmg SW 5 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.