textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers will increase in coverage from west to east through the morning and into the afternoon.

- Rainfall amounts of 0.50-0.70" are expected across much of western & central Minnesota. Generally less than 0.10-0.30" across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- A more widespread round of rain is likely with a frontal passage on Tuesday.

NEXT WEEK

On Monday, south/southwesterly flow will remain locked in across the region ahead of the next upper level shortwave trough. High temperatures will warm a few degrees from Sunday, around 70 degrees areawide. With anomalous moisture in place, the next upper level shortwave and associated surface front will promote scattered to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday. As of now, there's still a degree of uncertainty regarding how this system evolves. That said, it's to difficult, with not the best forecaster confidence to determine exact rainfall totals. But the one trend that is remaining fairly consistent is lesser rain totals as most of the upper level forcing and dynamics hone in across far northern MN and south into the IA/MO/NE/IL region. Looking at 00z deterministic models and their respected ensemble suites, guidance is painting greater than 60 percent chance(medium to high confidence) of 24 hour rainfall totals of greater than 0.10 inches areawide. Looking at the probability of 24 hour totals greater than 0.50 inches, guidance is painting at 10-40 percent chance(low to medium confidence).

The next chance for rain will be on Thursday. An upper level trough will move across the Desert Southwest before ejecting northeastward across the Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. There still remains uncertainty regarding this system, and how far north the associated deep and anomalous moisture advects. That said, 15-30 percent PoPs remain in the forecast grids, highlighting Thursday rain chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Light to moderate SHRA continues this afternoon across much of Minnesota, especially the central and western portions. The showers have had more of a northerly track rather than northeast, limiting the impacts across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Showers will become more scattered this afternoon, though may continue into the evening and overnight hours. Regardless of visibility impacts, MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through the majority of the period with cigs below 3000 ft where rain is falling, or where it has already fallen. Rain will clear out by tomorrow morning, and cigs will gradually improve after sunrise.

Southeast winds are gusting to around 20 kts this afternoon, but will become light and variable overnight.

KMSP...The heaviest rain is most likely to fall around 19-22z this afternoon, but light, on and off showers will likely continue into the evening. Ceilings are expected to settle into solid MVFR level by this evening, and likely remain there until late tomorrow morning or early afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. WED...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S to SE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.