textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy mixed precipitation continues to move northward through this afternoon. Rain, snow, and sleet are all being reported.

- Quiet Thursday and Friday with a 20-30% chance for light rain and snow Saturday morning.

- Seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures expected through early next week, with a warm up likely by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

It has been quite a messy afternoon across southern and western Minnesota roads as a wintry mix of rain, snow, and sleet impacts the region. With the low pressure centered overhead, winds have remained relatively weak. Temperatures remain within a few degrees of freezing, causing precipitation type issues. P-types have been going between rain, sleet, and snow depending on surface temperatures. This mix is creating a messy situation on the roads. Heavy precipitation rates within the deformation band mentioned in previous discussions are coming to fruition. The deformation band set up slightly farther south and east than expected, leading to an eastward expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory. This is largely due to the impact we are seeing the precipitation have on roads in the far western Metro. Despite relatively mild winds, visibilities across rural Minnesota have been near or below 1/2 mile for the majority of the day due to intense snow. It will be awhile before snow completely stops in central Minnesota, but we have already have reports of several inches of snow in far west central Minnesota. Before the rain transitioned to snow, we were also receiving reports of hail in the areas of heavier precipitation (with low freezing levels, hail isn't hard to come by in events like this).

Precipitation will finally come to an end overnight as the low tracks toward the Great Lakes and high pressure builds behind its departure. The pattern aloft features a large trough centered over the western CONUS and ridging in the east. This places us in the middle with southwest flow in the upper-levels. As we head into Friday night, a trough to our north phases with the aforementioned trough as a developing surface low progresses northeast. Depending on how these two upper-level features interact, some models push the northern extent of the associated deformation zone of this low into the southern half of our area. The ensembles depict mediocre probabilities (30-40% chance) for measurable precipitation south of I-90 but next to zero chance for seeing more than a tenth of an inch late Friday into Saturday. This is reflected in our grids with a splattering of 20-30% PoPs and a few hundredths of QPF. Overall, this shouldn't be impactful but is the next realistic shot at any precipitation. Clouds will linger through early Saturday before clearing out in the afternoon. After this system moves east, cold air advection will keep high temperatures below normal for the end of the weekend with highs in the 40s to lower 50s in far southern Minnesota. This also means highs in the mid to upper 30s on Monday in west central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Lingering snow will continue at KAXN and KSTC tonight. The rest of the sites will have low clouds. These cloud bases should rise on Wednesday as drier air moves across the region. Did trend toward the more optimistic guidance and added VFR conditions toward the end of the TAF period.

KMSP... IFR/LIFR ceilings continue this evening, but those should lift as westerly winds develop overnight and bring drier air across the region.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts. SAT...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NW 15G25kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for Douglas- Morrison-Pope-Stevens-Todd. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for Benton- Mille Lacs-Stearns-Swift. WI...None.