textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Up and down temperature trend continues through the forecast period. Warm tomorrow, cooler late week, then warmer for the weekend.

- Chance of rain showers late tomorrow night into Thursday morning.

- Active pattern to bring renewed precipitation chances to end the month and begin April.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A pleasant Tuesday afternoon is underway, as temperatures have warmed into the upper 40s across much of the area. Visible satellite reveals an expansive region of cirrus streaming over the Upper Midwest within northwesterly flow aloft. As such, filtered sunshine remains the story and ongoing mixing up to ~3-4k feet should yield surface highs in the 50s for many locations later this afternoon.

Water vapor imagery captures a wave coming ashore over the Pacific northwest, which is progged to ride the western CONUS ridge and spawn a surface low in the vicinity of eastern MT/northern WY/western Dakotas tomorrow. A well defined baroclinic zone located along the International Border will strengthen in response, allowing for an anomalous thermal ridge to build into the Upper Midwest. WAA will begin to increase late tonight into Wednesday morning, evidenced by a deepening 925mb warm nose on forecast soundings. With only a thin cirrus layer present, the diurnal mixing process should efficiently warm temperatures into the low to mid 70s across much of western and southern MN, which includes the TC Metro. Farther northeast, Wednesday afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s (north of I-94 in MN and for locations across western WI).

As is the case in March, what goes up typically comes down soon after, which will be the case heading into Thursday. The aforementioned baroclinic boundary will dive south across the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Following the previous discussion, we've continued to focus on the late Wednesday/early Thursday period for the chance of light rain along the trailing mid-level front. The AIFS remains the most bullish in terms of QPF, depicting a swath of 0.1-0.2" liquid along and north of I-94. This is supported by the AIFS Ens, which advertises at least 0.1" liquid at MSP across roughly 80% of its membership. Collaborated with neighbors to boost PoPs to between 40-50 percent across central MN and western WI. Low-level dry air captured on forecast soundings remains somewhat of a complicating factor, so not convinced that we'll see widespread rainfall reports in excess of a tenth of an inch, but still wanted to show an upward trend in the PoPs with today's update. Strong mid-level CAA will combine with breezy northwesterly flow to usher in a colder air mass that will bring cooler temperatures for the second half of the week. Thursday will likely be a bit of a transition day that is reflected by a high temperature range from north (40s) to south (upper 50s). The coolest day of the forecast period will be Friday, as morning lows in the teens/20s only warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s during the afternoon.

Temperatures will begin to rebound this weekend as large scale ridging expands over the central CONUS. Highs are set to warm into the 50s Saturday, the 60s Sunday, and the 60s to lower 70s Monday. Should be a nice weekend to get outdoors with little in the way of precipitation chances thanks to the ridging aloft. Looking into the long term, large scale western troughing will become the main driver for the return of wet weather early in April. Both legacy and machine learning ensemble systems show a notable increase in QPF across the Upper Midwest following the translation of longwave troughing over the western CONUS during the middle of next week. Suppose it's appropriate to make the first "April showers..." mention!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Quiet weather is expected again this period. We'll start and end the period with BKN-OVC mid/upper clouds, but in the middle (so during the day), skies should be mostly clear. Winds will be out of the southeast through the morning, but this afternoon, a surface trough will stall out over the area, with winds becoming light and variable, with a stronger cold front poised to drop south across the area in the 6z to 12z timeframe on Thursday. As we hit 6z Thursday (end of this period), rain will be starting to spread into central MN.

KMSP...Followed the idea of the AIFS with rain moving into the Twin Cities late Wednesday night (end of this period). We expect rain to be falling as this period ends 12z Thursday. The HRRR doesn't look bad in terms of timing of this precip, but it is displaced too far north (as it often was throughout the winter), so you take that HRRR forecast and drop it south a row or two of counties and you have rain moving into MSP in the 7-9z timeframe.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/-RA in morning. VFR aftn. Wind N 10-15G25 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.