textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures through Saturday, warming up to near normal Sunday, and above normal next week.

- Several additional chances for light precipitation through early next week, but significant accumulation is not expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Extensive stratus is in place this morning from the Dakotas across the southwestern half of MN and into southern WI, but it is slowly clearing from the north. The clearing line is currently just north of the I-94 corridor. Temperatures have dropped to near zero following the clearing, whereas they remain in the teens under the cloud deck. The clearing will halt during the next few hours and we'll trade in lower clouds for mid level clouds this afternoon. A few flurries have been reported in parts of the Dakotas and Montana, but we'll escape any steady snow for the first time in the last few days. However, the next disturbance is expected to traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest tonight and Saturday. This system looks weaker and drier than others this week. Initially, saturated mid levels and some Omega will get snow development aloft, but very dry air below 6kft should prevent much of it from reaching the surface. By Saturday morning, mid levels will dry and the low levels will saturate. This will lead to freezing drizzle as preferred p-type, should enough lift exist throughout the low levels. With the lack of Omega forecast, we may escape this system without more than a few spotty flakes or a few patches of freezing drizzle.

High pressure will slide east across the region Saturday night and by Sunday the next disturbance will be pushing east over the northern Plains. This disturbance looks a little more vigorous than what we've seen this week. It won't begin tapping into better moisture until it reaches MN. Precipitation will break out from northern and eastern MN into western WI Sunday afternoon, then become steadier and more widespread Sunday evening across northeast MN, the U.P. of MI, and northern WI. WAA aloft will bring a somewhat healthy warm nose in around 850 mb, leading to a better chance of a wintry mix than snow. Low level saturation will linger Sunday night in the wake of steadier precipitation, so can't rule out patchy freezing drizzle continuing into the evening.

Zonal flow will bring a milder pattern back for next week. There may be some weak waves within the zonal flow that are able to produce light precipitation, but predictability of those at this range is low. Signals continue to point to a pattern change later next week with a trough developing over the western U.S. Larger disturbances may eject northeast across the Rockies and Plains. Consistency with any particular feature is very low, but the large scale pattern will be more favorable for organized systems as we head toward next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

The edge of the MVFR stratus has pushed southwest of our TAF sites. This will allow most sites to start with VFR cigs and remain VFR through early Saturday morning. Broad low level warm air advection will help support another low VFR stratus deck tonight. There is some noise in hi-res guidance that would support a period of -SN across W/C MN. I have added a PROB30 at AXN/RWF for 6SM-SN to AXN/RWF. Flurries may spread further east, but impacts will be minimal. MVFR cigs likely by early Sat AM as the stratus deck continues to lower. There is signal for IFR cigs at our western MN sites AXN/MKT/RWF. Winds turn light & variable overnight before turning back to the NW Sat AM. This could support patchy fog development at AXN & RWF. Winds turn back to the NW by the end of the TAF aob 05kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. S Chc -SN/IFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind W at 5 kts, bcmg SE. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts, bcmg W.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.