textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Swath of wintry precipitation, mainly as light snow, to continue moving east across the coverage area this morning, ending shortly after sunrise. Little to no additional ice or snow accumulation.

- Another wintry system, producing a mixture of rain and snow, is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

- After a cool-down today, temperatures will remain well above normal through Monday, then return closer to normal for Tuesday through the rest of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a 1000mb low sitting over the IA/MN/IL triple point with a long cold front extending SSW across IA and into the Southern Plains. High pressure encompasses much of the western half of the Lower 48 states. Aloft, A deep longwave trough extends from central Canada into the Four Corners region with sharp ridging over the West Coast. KMPX radar continues to show the pronounced swath of wintry precipitation, mainly as light snow with some isolated pockets of RA/FZRA mixed in, from the I-35 corridor north of the TC Metro extending SW to near the Buffalo Ridge area.

The overall swath of precipitation has shown some slight blossoming in the last hour or so but it continues to slowly- but-surely slide eastward with time. Surface temperatures continue to drop below freezing as the cold front slides east, thus the precipitation being reported is a mixture of UP (unknown precipitation), FZRA and SN. As the overall swath slides east, the prevailing p-type will become light snow towards sunrise before shifting east and gradually ending shortly after sunrise. This is due to cold air from the top down overcoming the remnants of the warm nose which allowed for the more widespread development of FZDZ/FZRA last evening into the early morning hours. There may well be some snow accumulation north and west of the TC metro, a few tenths of an inch of snow on mainly grassy areas, and some spots to the west and southwest of the TC metro may still be dealing with some slick spots. Thus, motorists should continue to use extra caution if venturing out through late morning until the precip ends, skies can clear out and temperatures can rise a bit over the freezing mark later this afternoon.

By late afternoon into the evening, the longwave trough will become stretched out and its southwestern nadir becoming cut off over Baja while the western ridge moves atop the low and slides across the Rockies. A bulge in H5 heights along with zonal flow from the surface upwards, with generally high pressure to the south, will allow for a nice northward push of warmer air into the Upper Midwest for Sunday. Highs will climb from the 40s today to the 60s on Sunday as the cold front departs and ridging prevails. A dry cold front will push through the region on Monday, bumping highs back to the upper 40s to upper 50s but aside from an increase in clouds, no precipitation is expected.

A more active pattern commences on Tuesday as the lingering SW CONUS upper low becomes caught up with a developing longwave trough dropping in from western Canada. This will aid in cyclogenesis over the Plains Monday night into Tuesday which will move into our region through midweek. Strong jetting aloft combined with a relative parade of weak-moderate trough features will allow for repeated chances for rain/snow showers from Tuesday through most of next week. Most of the precipitation will come as snow since the WFO MPX coverage area will be on the cold side of this passing systems, but no significant precipitation amounts are expected. Temperatures will gradually fall back towards near normal values by later next week, but normals will be continuing to increase as we progress through early-mid March.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 514 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Swath of precipitation moving across southern-eastern MN into western WI at initialization is mainly wet snow but there is a bit of FZDZ on the leading edge before the precip changes over entirely to SN. The precip swath will continue to press east through daybreak, with the precip ending altogether later this morning. Mainly IFR ceilings will prevail through daybreak, followed by fairly quick clearing for the afternoon hours through tonight. Breezy NW winds will continue for much of the day, then back to SW this evening into tonight. By late Saturday night, strong low level jetting aloft will very likely create nocturnal LLWS conditions.

KMSP...P-type at initialization is a mix of FZDZ and SN but the precip will quickly change over to all wet snow not long after the 12z hour, continuing for a couple hours before ending altogether. Little to no ice or snow accumulation expected. Ceilings will nudge upwards into MVFR range around the time the precip ends with at least partial clearing by noon. Strong nocturnal jetting aloft will likely create LLWS conditions from late Saturday evening onward.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. TUE...MVFR likely. Chance IFR/-RASN. Wind NE 10-15 kts. WED...Chc MVFR/-SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for Benton-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Morrison-Redwood-Renville-Stearns- Todd. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Isanti-Kanabec-Martin-McLeod-Mille Lacs-Nicollet-Sherburne-Sibley-Watonwan-Wright. WI...None.