textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A light wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, & sleet will move from northwest to southeast tonight. Slick travel conditions are possible.

- Light wintry precipitation possible Sunday night.

- Warmer next week, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows in the 20s. Mainly dry for those with holiday travel plans.

UPDATE

Issued at 807 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Biggest trend we're seeing with models this evening is showing the dry air eating up our precip potential late tonight. We'll be starting to cut back on PoPs here shortly outside of the northern portions of our CWA from central MN into northwest WI. Outside of our far northern CWA, it looks like the forcing will not be around long enough to allow enough saturation of the low levels to occur to allow hydrometeors to reach the ground. Another change we'll be making is to cut back on the freezing precip mention further. Although the warm nose still exists with a max temperature above freezing, the wet-bulb temperatures in this warm nose are below freezing. So as precip begins to fall into the warm nose and evaporate, it will cool the warm nose down below freezing, so any precip that can survive the dry air to reach the ground will get there as snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The powerhouse weather system that moveD through the northern CONUS yesterday has quickly translated east of the Great Lakes. A short-lived blast of sub-zero temperatures followed the departing system, though temperatures have rebounded above zero early this afternoon. Focus shifts to a vort max racing across the westerly upper-level flow over southern Canada. A mature mid-level cyclone has developed in response and will send a ~980s mb surface low from Saskatchewan through southern Manitoba into Ontario over the next 24-hours. Our portion of the Upper Midwest will be positioned in the warm sector to the south of the surface low. As such, a notable mid-level thermal ridge will advect east across the region through the remainder of the day and will play a role in our p-type forecast tonight. We can already see this playing out, as surface winds are increasing out of the southeast across western MN. This trend will continue eastward and should yield non-diurnal highs before midnight in the low to mid 20s south of I-94 and in the upper teens to the north of I-94.

Regional radar captures the initial batch of warm advective precipitation moving east into northwest and west central MN. KMPX radar imagery displays radar echoes moving across the area, though surface observations reveal that no precipitation is reaching the surface owing to a large dry wedge sampled on the 12z MPX RAOB. It's possible that we may see some very light wintry precipitation later this afternoon into the early evening north of a line from STC to GDB. The better chance for mixed precipitation will arrive later tonight as the system's trailing cold front moves from northwest to southeast across the region. Latest forecast soundings continue to display a saturated profile above 7-8k feet and a warm nose (above freezing) around 5k feet, along with sufficient omega forcing through the column. As a result, we are looking at a scenario where many locations will likely observe a short period of light freezing rain prior to a transition to sleet/snow as mid-level temperatures cool with the frontal passage. Snow amounts will be minor, say a half inch to an inch north of I-94, however the combination of snow and mixed wintry precipitation may create slick travel areawide overnight. The narrow band of mixed precipitation is forecast to exit the southeastern portions of the forecast area by daybreak Saturday. Cold air will advect in from the northwest through Saturday and will send morning lows back below zero across central MN and western WI by Sunday morning.

Quiet and cold to open Sunday, though changes will be underway aloft. A large scale upper ridge will build east over the northern CONUS, with mid-level southwesterly flow increasing in response. The next period to watch for light precipitation will be Sunday evening into early Monday, as a baroclinic zone lifts north into the region. As previously discussed, there is some variance in the guidance with how widespread the precipitation footprint will be, though would tend to favor wetter solutions that match the conceptual model for an upglide driven band of precipitation. Once again, thermal profiles will be a must watch and it's likely there would be some mixed precipitation on the table. New NBM PoPs are between 20-30 percent and would look at this as a possible target for increasing PoPs through the weekend. Warmer air follows to open the work week, with the latest NBM advertising highs above freezing areawide ranging from the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Temperatures will take a step back on Tuesday following the passage of a dry cold front. The rest of next week, including Christmas Day, continues to look fairly mild as ensembles advertise a +15C to +20C 850mb temperature anomaly building out of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Our afternoon forecast package displays Thursday (Christmas Day) as the warmest in the extended period, with highs climbing to around 40 in the Twin Cities Metro and across central MN. Temperatures may reach the upper 40s across southwestern MN. The state of the remnant snowpack (and how it may modify the anomalous air mass) will be the key in diagnosing just how warm it gets next week. Nonetheless, it will be mild and mostly dry, with any chance of precipitation too low to include in the forecast at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The drying trend for precip chances tonight noted with the 00z TAFs continues with the 06z TAFs and have now removed any snow mention from MSP and EAU as well. If any precip does make it to the ground, it will be snow. Frontal timing has not changed at all, with gusty NW winds expected for Saturday, along with falling temperatures. One concern to continue to watch is the potential for an MVFR stratocu field. For now, kept it as few or sct, but you can't completely rule out an MVFR cig through the afternoon at STC/MSP/RNH/EAU.

KMSP...Snow chances are rapidly diminishing, but can't completely rule out some flurries or light snow at 10 or 11z with the FROPA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW becoming SE 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Chance MVFR/SN early. Wind SE 10-15 kts. TUE...MVFR ceilings possible. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.