textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers expected to continue through Thursday with highest QPF amounts focused over western and central Minnesota.

- Temperatures come down to near normal values by the end of the week with overnight lows near or below freezing through the weekend before a slight warm up early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Aside from some drizzle, precip has tapered off early this morning. Western and central Minnesota were the winners in terms of rainfall totals, with around 0.75" to 1" or better for the past 24 hours. Far west central Minnesota did see a handful of amounts greater than 1.5" to 2". This will hopefully be reflected as some beneficial rainfall for this week's drought monitor update. Looking at surface obs, a surface low is centered just north of St. Cloud, with winds turning west to northwesterly across roughly the western half of Minnesota. It's apparent where southerly flow is still in control, with both MSP and STC hitting their daily high temperatures just before midnight. It's likely that today's high's will occur early this morning and will slowly fall or remain steady through this afternoon. This surface low will continue to move to the north- northeast as a second surface low moves up out of the Central Plains, bringing with it another round of showers by late morning/early afternoon. The trajectory of this second low will be further east into central Wisconsin, placing western and central Minnesota under the axis of heaviest precip. However, this second round will come with lower QPF amounts than what we saw Monday. Still, additional rainfall amounts of 0.5" to 1" are expected through Thursday. North-northwest winds will remain on the breezy side for the western half of the CWA during this time period with gusts up to 30 MPH possible.

This system finally moves out Thursday with temperatures returning to more typical November normals (highs in the upper 40s/low 50s, lows in the low 30s). While Friday will be dry, it may end up still being a fairly cloudy day. A shortwave looks to move through Saturday, bringing some low PoPs back to the forecast. Following this, temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 50s by the end of the period. We'll start next week dry and likely stay that way with high pressure building in through mid week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rain showers and drizzle expected throughout the TAF period, with IFR/LIFR ceilings, and MVFR/IFR visibility. Winds will be out of the north at most TAF sites, except for KEAU, which will have southerly winds.

KMSP... MVFR/IFR conditions with on and off rain showers. The ceiling heights will be the limiting visibility, but a few reductions in visbys are expected at times during heavier periods of drizzle and rain.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...RA/MVFR with IFR possible. Wind SW 5-10 kts. THU...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR late. Wind N 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.