textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of frost overnight, especially across western and central Minnesota.

- Seasonably cool & dry weather persists through mid-week.

- Shower & thunderstorm chances return Friday through the Memorial Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Current observations highlight spotty sprinkles/drizzle thanks to the lingering stratus deck. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 50s with northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. It will feel much closer to late March than late May. Skies will gradually break up this through the evening with clearing skies likely overnight as a surface high pressure moves in. Northwest winds will turn light and variable overnight. The combination of light winds and mostly clear skies should allow our temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s across much of western and central Minnesota. A Frost Advisory goes in effect tonight through early Wednesday morning given the likelihood of areas of frost across western and central MN. What about a Freeze Warning if my low temperature is 30? Sub- freezing temperatures are possible tonight, especially across central MN, but the residence time below freezing shouldn't be long enough to experience a proper freeze. This is why we went with a Frost Advisory versus a Freeze Warning. Temperatures should remain a few degrees warmer across E/S MN and W WI, helping prevent any meaningful frost formation. Temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday as southeasterly winds set up in the return flow across the Upper Midwest.

Our attention then turns to the holiday weekend. Our next chance for any meaningful precipitation arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Precipitation is tied to a shortwave tracking along the US- CAN border. While there could be some embedded thunderstorms with this system, the general pattern doesn't appear favorable for meaningful severe weather chances. The remainder of Memorial Day weekend should be pleasant. Temperatures rebound into the 80s Sunday and Monday with limited precipitation chances. Guidance solutions remain varied with precipitation chances Sunday/Monday, but nothing that would imply a washout or even a disruption to outdoor plans. Warmer, Summer-like temperatures will stick around for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Winds will calm and skies will clear as high pressure moves overhead tonight. We will see northwest winds with a few gusts up around 20 knots this evening before light and variable overnight into tomorrow morning. Once winds pick back up late tomorrow as the high moves out winds will be light from the S to SE.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA early. Wind SW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Benton- Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet- Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens- Swift-Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Barron-Polk- Rusk.