textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will finally start departing the area tonight. Maximum rainfall totals around 7 inches likely around the city of Le Sueur.

- Pleasant weekend ahead, with comfortable Summer temperatures and mostly sunny skies and dewpoints in the 50s.

- Next chance for storms comes Monday night through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

If I showed you the current water vapor satellite imagery and asked you what date you thought this was from, I would not blame you if you said November. There is a nice baroclinic leaf across the upper MS valley into the western Great Lakes and a dry slot moving across northeast KS into southeast MN. Although today has been a washout and a rather crummy weather day, we haven't heard too many complaints coming out of a 2 week stretch where most places saw less than a quarter of an inch of rain with highs frequently topping out in the 90s. We've seen some impressive rainfall totals today and have seen the gauges to backup the MRMS rainfall estimate bullseye of 6-8" of rain down around St. Peter and Le Sueur. Despite some rather larger rainfall numbers, this rain has come over a period of of 12 hours, not in just 3 or 4 hours, which means impacts from this rainfall (in terms of flooding) have been fairly minimal. Even though this heavy rainfall fell almost entirely within the MN River Basin, rises along the river are expected to remain within the stream banks. No matter how you slice it, this was an incredibly beneficial rain that has come with very few negative impacts.

For the weekend, we will not accept any complaints about the weather! We'll have rising heights and subsidence, which means mostly sunny skies with temepratures near normal and dewpoints retreating into the 50s and 60s. There has been some concern about smoky skies returning, but visible satellite imagery this afternoon looks pretty clean from the Dakotas back across Wyoming and Montana, so even chances for elevated smoke look pretty limited this weekend as well. Get out there and enjoy the outdoors this weekend, we're only 54 days away from the earliest snowfall on record here in the Twin Cities! (September 24, 1985)

We'll start next week with a cold front dropping across the area Monday night through Tuesday morning. Right now, we look to miss- time this front. We'll be getting the leftovers of whatever happens in the Dakotas and northwest MN Monday afternoon late Monday night in central/western MN, while the front should be far enough along Tuesday afternoon to where we'll be too far west to see any storms that form with daytime heating on Tuesday. Behind this front, we'll get another hit of pleasant Canadian air for the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Radar has shown significant weakening of precipitation echoes from 22-00z with most sites expected to be mostly dry to start and throughout the period, with EAU/RNH having the best chance for a bit of -SHRA until 02z. We continue to dry out after 02z with CIGS lifting and eventually becoming SCT/FEW 250 after 12-15z. Winds could produce a few 20kt gusts through 02z, falling back as the precipitation weakens, with gusts up to 20kts resuming after 17-18z at around 360. VFR is generally expected for all sites, especially after 02z.

KMSP...Kept the TAF dry although some very light -SHRA remains possible through around 02z, although it may end up as more of a mist.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR, chc pm -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.