textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonable warmth continues into early next week before a cold front brings temperatures back to near normal Tuesday.

- Next chance for widespread precip arrives late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Temperatures across western Minnesota are well on their way to making a run at 90 this afternoon with winds gusting to around 40 MPH. The stronger winds are still working their way to the east where gusts are only around 25-30 MPH. Fortunately, Tds have remained in the 50s so RH values have not fallen below 25%. An SPS for elevated fire weather concerns still seems sufficient, so no plans to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning. This heat will continue through Sunday and likely into Monday now as the timing of the FROPA has slowed down considerably. Record highs are almost certainly in jeopardy tomorrow, but will likely be out of reach for Monday. Regarding the rain chances for Monday, northern Minnesota down into central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin have the highest chance of seeing some afternoon showers, but QPF amounts remain low.

Beginning Tuesday, it will feel much more October-like with highs returning to the 60s. Precip chances increase mid to late in the week, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding what happens with a cut off low over the Rockies. PoPs came in slightly lower with this forecast cycle, likely due to the deterministic Euro continuing to hold on to the cut off low over the Four Corners region. Other solutions are more progressive and have a shortwave digging across the International Border late Thursday. So, we are still carrying the same amount of uncertainty mentioned in the previous discussion. Hopefully guidance comes into better agreement in the coming days. Beyond this, temperatures look to fall into the 50s with next Saturday morning starting out in the 30s. However, looking into late next weekend, ensembles hint that we are probably not done with temperatures in the upper 60s just yet.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Southerly winds are gusting to 30-35kts early this afternoon under clear skies. Winds are really the only concern for this TAF period. Speeds will gradually diminish overnight and into tomorrow morning to around 10kts. However, there's still a threat for some LLWS with the 40-50kt 850mb jet through early morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON..VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind N 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.