textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm, dry, & windy conditions today, will create critical fire weather conditions again this afternoon & evening.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin this evening. The strongest storms could contain large hail.

- Additional chances for thunderstorms over the weekend, with the greatest chance for severe storms Sunday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Another day of very dry & windy & conditions sets up for later today as seasonally deep low pressure system continues to slowly track across Manitoba & Ontario. Winds will be a bit weaker this afternoon compared to yesterday as the low fills in through the day, but wind gusts up to 25-30 mph loo likely at times during the afternoon across much of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. RH values are expected to again fall to around 20% or lower by mid-afternoon, with one of our warmer days of the season expected as highs reach into the mid to upper 80s. Issued a Red Flag Warning where confidence in seeing frequent wind gusts of at least 25 mph is highest, across much of central Minnesota & into northwest Wisconsin. Areas of blowing dusts could continue for another day across western Minnesota, but these impacts will mainly be felt across northwest Minnesota where winds will be strongest.

A cold front extended southwards from the Canadian low will slowly move across Minnesota during the day, & act as a forcing mechanism for isolated thunderstorms this evening when weak forcing aloft arrives from a jetstreak over the region. High- resolution models mainly limit these thunderstorms to southeast ern Minnesota & southwest Wisconsin, but a few of the latest 06Z runs do initiate storms a few hours earlier into the early evening across south- central Minnesota. Only a expecting weak instability with these storms given how dry it will be, but deep shear values will be on the order of 50 kts & oriented mostly perpendicularly to the forcing frontal boundary, so it's possible we could see a few supercellular thunderstorms with the strongest storms. Large hail would be the primary severe threat with these strongest storms although an isolated downburst is possible as well.

The pattern aloft becomes more active over the weekend as building troughing to our west spins up a number of shortwaves that will track through the Upper Midwest. Saturday's threat looks to mainly remain south of our area, as a complex of thunderstorms likely develops somewhere over SD/NE/IA & the follows the instability gradient southwards into the Mississippi Valley. Residual showers & thunderstorms north of the main complex of storms could lead to a wet start to Sunday, although confidence is low on just how far north this precipitation could extend into Minnesota & Wisconsin. Sunday looks to have the better environment for severe weather across our area, as very steep lapse rates over the region lead to CAPE values up to 2000-3000 J/kg during the afternoon/evening along with deep shear values increasing over 50 kts. Still a bit far out for details, but the few high-resolution models we have at that range suggests discrete storms will form over the Dakotas/central Plains during the afternoon, then merge into an MCS & move eastwards through Minnesota & Wisconsin through the evening. Damaging winds gusts look to be the primary severe threat given the linear storm mode scenario, but we could see a hail & tornado threat develop across portions of western Minnesota if storms remain discrete for longer. Current timing suggests we won't see much in the way of thunderstorms until well after sunset, at which point the complex will likely begin weakening as it moves through eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin overnight. We'll have to monitor these timing trends into Sunday as an earlier onset to storms across our area would likely lead to an increased severe threat, again with damaging wind as the primary hazard.

In addition to the chances for severe weather this weekend, the thunderstorms will also bring our first chance at a soaking rainfall for much of the area this month. Sunday's storms especially with AI & ensemble guidance suggesting greater than 50% probabilities for rainfall amounts of 1-2" across a good portion of the area. Another round of thunderstorms & soaking rain looks possible Monday into Tuesday as the troughing aloft continues to deepen & centers over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be seasonally warm into early next week, but the real noticeable change to our weather will be the muggier dewpoints with values in the 60s expected Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR with mostly clear skies for much of the daylight hours today. Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase once again by mid morning/early afternoon but should not be as windy as yesterday's conditions. Wind gusts this afternoon are expected to range between 20-25kts out of the west. All sites can expect a decrease in winds this evening and with direction becoming variable overnight. There is a potential of a few rain showers and thunderstorms near the MN/IA border into western WI early this evening. For now, have introduced a prob30 for -TSRA at EAU. Its possible some rain could sneak up into/near MKT however was not sold quiet to include any precip groups just yet.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT PM...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts, bcmg E 10-15G20kts late SUN...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind ESE 10-15G30kts. MON...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind SW 15-20G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens- Swift-Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for Barron-Polk-Rusk.