textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions likely Saturday afternoon across central and southern Minnesota.

- More active pattern next week with a few chances for precipitation likely..

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Broad Canadian high pressure moves through the Upper Midwest today, with continued cold advection behind yesterday's cold front limiting temperatures mainly to the 30s across the area this afternoon. Northwest winds will gust to around 30 mph this afternoon making it feel even more brisk out, but winds slacken after sunset with the center of the high moving overhead. Prime radiational cooling conditions will develop overnight with skies clearing out in addition to the light winds, but southerly winds are expected to develop & increase during the early morning hours limiting lows from dipping much below the low 20s by sunrise.

Strong southwesterly winds develop through the day on Saturday as the high pressure continues to slide east of the region. The strong southerly flow will allow for temperatures to rebound quickly from this afternoon, with highs in the 60s likely across western Minnesota & generally mid to upper 50s elsewhere. In addition to the warm temperatures, very dry air will remain in place from Canadian airmass, & will likely become even drier during the afternoon when deep mixing is maximized. WInds will likely gust to 35-45 mph during the late morning & afternoon, with very low relative humidity values likely falling into the 10-20% range. This combination of warm, dry, & windy conditions is expected to lead to critical fire weather conditions & limiting any outdoor burning is strongly encouraged Saturday.

Temperatures remain well-above normal Sunday & Monday as upper level ridging becomes more pronounced over the central CONUS. Ensemble guidance suggests temperature anomalies top out in the 25-30 degree range Monday afternoon when widespread highs in the 70s look possible if not some 80s across southern Minnesota. The jet stream becomes more active over the region beginning Tuesday, when a cold front is likely to move through MN & WI. Guidance remains widely spread on the timing & location of numerous potential systems through the week as the jet remains active overhead, but it does appear that any appreciable precipitation will remain off to our north & east through at least midweek. Temperatures look to return to more normal values by Wednesday & remain there into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Broken to overcast stratocumulus from 4000-6000 feet will continue to slide southeast across the area this morning. Clouds will scatter and lift from west to east during this afternoon as clear skies follow. Thus, VFR conditions are expected the entire period with high level clouds building in from the west early Saturday morning. Northwesterly winds will strengthen throughout this morning, lasting through this afternoon. Sustained values will reach 15-20 knots while gusts reach 25-30 knots. Winds slow to near 5 knots this evening and then turn southerly overnight. Winds will strengthen to near 10 knots early Saturday morning in western MN.

KMSP...Broken stratocumulus near 5000 feet will last until late morning when skies begin to lift and clear. Northwesterly winds will gust to near 25 knots this afternoon. For Saturday, southerly winds will also gust to near 25 knots by late morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-20G25-30 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NE 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota- Douglas-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison- Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington- Wright. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Lac Qui Parle- Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.