textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers, gusty northwest winds of 40-50 mph, & plummeting temperatures behind an Arctic front tomorrow morning through the afternoon.

- Winter travel impacts expected from a combination of the gusty winds causing low visibility in blowing snow, & flash freeze conditions causing icy roads & surfaces.

- Precipitation begins this evening as light rain spreads eastwards across the area, ending overnight as a dry slot moves through the region.

UPDATE

Issued at 736 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

To this point, no major changes have been made to the forecast. The 00z MPX sounding did show about 13k feet of dry air precipitation will have to battle before reaching the ground and for that reason, we did delay the eastward push of rain chances this evening. Not much has changed with the reasoning behind the forecast for Thursday. The combination of crashing temperatures (we should go from about 38 to 10 between sunrise and sunset in the metro) resulting in the potential for flash freeze conditions, the light snow (that will likely come in a couple of stronger bursts with the convective nature of the snow environment), and the winds to blow that snow around all adds up to what could be a dicey driver home Thursday afternoon and evening. We have not changed headline configuration, but depending on how far south accumulating snow with the wrap around precip can make it on Thursday, a southward expansion in the Winter Weather Advisory may be needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Active weather over the next 36 hours as an anomalously strong low pressure for December tracks along the US/Canada border. Currently, our system is located over eastern Montana/southern Saskatchewan, & near its peak strength of 980 mb. The low should maintain this intensity as it skirts eastwards along the US/Canada border through the Dakotas & Great Lakes tonight through tomorrow, making it one of the stronger systems we have seen in the Dakotas/Minnesota for mid-December. Warm air advection continues ahead of the approaching surface cld front his afternoon, with all locations already above freezing & expected to warm even more into the upper 30s & low 40s by the time precipitation arrives this evening. This should make our precipitation type forecaster much cleaner than prior forecasts, as temperatures look to be warm enough for a few hours of light rain as the first wave of precipitation moves through the region with the occluded front this evening into late tonight. Localized freezing precipitation can't totally be ruled out across portions of western Wisconsin this evening, where stubborn pockets of sub-freezing temperatures could still exist, but warming temperatures through the night will quickly mitigate any small threat for ice.

The rain we get will be light, on the order of 0.10-0.25", & ends after a few hours overnight as the deep & occluded low pulls a well-defined dry slot through the Upper Midwest. Gusty south winds of 30-40 mph with the rain this evening will slacken as this dry slot moves through the area, with these relatively benign conditions continuing into at least the early morning, but most likely the entire morning commute across the area.

Conditions drastically change through the morning however, as the Arctic front on the back side of the low pressure moves through Minnesota & Wisconsin. Strong cold advection with the front will lead to plummeting temperatures through the day as well as very gusty northwest winds, with gusts up to 50 mph likely through the afternoon. Light snow is also expected behind the front in the wrap- around region of the low, with localized bursts of heavier snow likely in sporadic snow squalls. We are only expecting snowfall amounts on the order of an inch or less with this light snow, but the gusty winds coupled with the falling snow will likely lead to periods of low visibility. Additionally, temperatures quickly falling into the single digits & below zero through the afternoon will likely lead to icy flash freeze conditions as whatever snow that falls in addition to any antecedent moisture quickly ices up on roads & other surfaces. We decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory across most of central Minnesota, the Twin Cities metro, & western Wisconsin, for the aggregate of these travel hazards, as the combination of lower visibility & flash freeze conditions are expected to lead to hazardous driving conditions, especially for the evening commute.

The light snow will wrap up through the evening along with the winds weakening, but continued cold advection will continue to drop temperatures below zero into Friday morning. Lows around -10 are expected across central Minnesota with lows near zero elsewhere, while wind chills values will approach -25 across central Minnesota. We're still not quite out of the woods with wintry precip Friday, as a shortwave on the heels;ls of our departing system could generate a light swath of a wintry mix of snow & freezing drizzle across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Strong zonal flow then sits over the northern tier of the CONUS into next week, which should prevent any major winter systems over the region for the foreseeable future. However, any subtle waves within the jet could create chances for light precip, so we may see multiple nuisance chances for light snow over the weekend & into next week. Temperatures look to remain fairly reasonable give the zonal flow, but we will likely stay of to the north of any potential warm airmasses given the jet overhead.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

In the last couple of hours, we've seen the dry air being overcome with rain making it to the surface. Going TAFs had a pretty good handle on this rain, with the main change being to hold it on a bit longer in western WI in the morning. CIGS will be VFR in western MN with the passage of this rain, but cigs will be lowering as it moves east, with a brief period of MVFR cigs at STC/MKT/MSP expected, they will be IFR by the time it gets to western WI. Cigs will improve for the morning as the dry slot moves through, but MVFR cigs will return by the afternoon as the wrap-around moisture moves in. With those clouds will also come the risk of snow showers through the afternoon at all terminals. These showers will likely result in some temporary stronger bursts of snow throughout the day, which explains the tempo IFR groups we have for -SN at all terminals.

KMSP...Hopefully, winds have enough of westerly component to them by the time the morning push starts on Thursday that MSP will be able to start off on the 30s, but if they aren't able to start the day on the 30s, then a transition from the 12s to the 30s will need to happen between 6am and 8am.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN overnight. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-20G30kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for Douglas-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Todd. Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for Blue Earth- Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne- Washington-Wright. Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Thursday for Carver-Dakota- Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-Rice-Scott-Steele- Waseca-Wright. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pierce- Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.