textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of scattered thunderstorms possible for southwest and southern MN early Thursday morning.

- Best chance for widespread steady rainfall comes Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values through Wednesday, then drop below normal Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

It relatively quiet today as the surface boundary remains draped west-east to our south. This front remains mostly stationary under northwest flow aloft, though it should start to dip further south as an area of weak, high surface pressure continues to spread across the Upper MS Valley. Any sort of kink in the midlevel flow could produce an isolated storm this evening given the few thousand Joules of CAPE, though forecast soundings highlight that a shallow moisture profile should limit any activity for the rest of the day. The latest update to the SPC Day 1 SWO removed the Marginal Risk from most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Tonight into Wednesday remains mostly dry ahead of another chance for nocturnal storms Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest guidance favors storms developing across central SoDak and eastern Nebraska during the evening, then diving southeast through northern Iowa. This mainly develops out of a weak mid level wave that becomes enhanced along the nose of a 700hPa jet. This will become a similar situation to last night where we are tracking the location of the quasi-stationary front and the developing shortwave. A broad Marginal Risk remains in place for Wednesday's severe weather outlook, though for our area, we expect the main storm threat to be focused across southwest and southern MN. Given CAPE values will be much higher further south into Iowa, any convection that does develop may even avoid much of southern MN altogether as it follows the gradient of higher CAPE values.

A slightly cooler airmass is expected to move in as we head into the end of the week with afternoon highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s Thursday onwards. A quick shot of increased moisture is still expected Friday into Saturday as an area of low pressure develops to the W/SW, and PWAT values approach 2" across southern MN. There is still notable spread across ensemble guidance, though this will bring our best chance of steady precip over the next 7 days. The latest NBM QPF amounts suggest a number of areas could see over an inch of rainfall over a 30-36 hour period, especially across southern MN.

Heading into next week, we likely remain under northwest flow, though a building ridge across the western US may begin to influence a warming trend and occasional storm chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Other than a lone shower popping up near MKT, we expect to remain dry through this period with some cumulus forming near the dissipating stratus over southern MN. Some upper level clouds are possible stemming from some convection in North Dakota, generally remaining FEW/SCT250 with some SCT060 possible. Winds become light and variable a few hours after the start of the period, favoring 070-100 at or below 5kts by the end. Elected to go aggressive compared to guidance with BR at EAU due to high RH and no winds, a combo that almost always gives us some radiation fog.

KMSP...The BKN cigs to the south have weakened and started to lift, with some FEW/SCT060 cumulus through 21-22z and dissipating afterwards. Winds become light/variable overnight, favoring around 090 at the end of the period below 5kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NE 5kts. FRI...VFR, chc pm -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. SAT...-SHRA, chc MVFR/IFR. Wind SE to S 10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.