textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers and even a few potential rumbles of thunder spread across the area this evening.

- Rain transitions over to snow across portions of central Minnesota Wednesday. Snow accumulations of 1-2" are expected in central Minnesota.

- Increasing trend for a narrow band of accumulating snow to add an additional 1-3"+ across central Minnesota down towards Twin Cities metro.

- Turning colder late week with another chance for accumulating snow Thursday night/Friday - mainly across southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

There are several moving parts to this forecast, with multiple rounds of rain and snow likely for the area through the end of the week. Latest surface analysis places our low pressure over central Montana early this afternoon, with additional areas of low pressure lingering across the western CONUS. Our first wave of precipitation will develop as rain showers this evening, potentially even a few rumbles of thunder or small hail across southern MN with the HREF noting a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. The sub-990mb low will begin to occlude as it moves right over central MN. With the latest suite of guidance, 12-18z, we've seen a pretty dramatic increase in forcing along the southwest edge of the low. In turn, several hi-res models have started to match similar to what a number of the global models have been hinting at, with a deformation band producing accumulating snow on that southwest edge. This trend does have us concerned, because even with the snow being a wetter, heavier snow, the combination of strong winds and falling snow could lead to a ramp up in impacts for Wednesday. We are not issuing Winter Headlines with the latest forecast package in order to avoid jumping the gun in case hi-res guidance settles back down, though we want to emphasize the potential and give a heads up that Winter Weather Advisories and possibly Warnings may be needed for the open areas of western WI. For areas closer to the metro, a lot would have to come together for a headline to be needed, though if the trend for a narrow band of accumulating snow (and wind) continues, a shorter-fused alert may be leveraged.

The reason for this high uncertainty despite the event starting over the next 24 hours is the models attempting to resolve a strong, yet occluding low pressure. Should that band of accumulating snow develop, it is likely you have a very sharp cutoff with the dry slot to the south. Overall, QPF looks to be around a half inch of rain, with areas further north seeing the greatest amounts. That transition to snow will be key, with temperatures falling through the day across central MN. An earlier transition would support higher amounts, which is the way we have been trending with our forecast. At the same time, forcing may weaken on the northern edge of the low as it occludes, limiting rates. Up to an additional half inch of QPF is possible, falling as a mix of rain and snow. There is a high ceiling for totals across central MN down towards portions of the Twin Cities metro, with the Euro, AIFS, HRRR, and NAM producing upwards of 3 to 8 inches within the narrow band. On the flip side, you have the RRFS and GFS which keep things north and generally lighter for snowfall amounts. For now, we would hazard believing these outputs, though they warrant attention given that even 1 to 3 inches of accumulating snow could lead to impacts. Especially since the forecast up to this point has been for the majority of snow to stay north.

The fun continues Thursday, with those additional areas of low pressure falling in behind this system, developing another round of accumulating snow that tracks near the IA/MN border and cuts up north through portions of SE MN into W WI. Confidence has increased for lighter snow amounts as models seem to be locking in to a common solution, producing less of a broad stroke for our snowfall footprint. Highest amounts settle in around 1 to 3 inches, stretching from Albert Lea up towards Eau Claire. This event does not look to have as high of a ceiling, and at the very least we can expect to have impacts to Thursday evening through Friday morning travel.

Upper level troughing continues into the weekend, supporting our cool down closer to normal. There's at least some suggestion for additional precip chances this weekend, though most folks can expect to remain dry until next week Tue/Wed.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 647 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Quite the messy set of TAFs given the precip scenario, shifting winds, LLWS and dropping ceilings.

For precip, KMPX radar is already showing a swath of rainfall mainly north of I-94 this evening. As the evening and nighttime progress, a more broad swath of rain will cover most TAF sites, mainly north of both RWF-MKT, thus the more prevailing mention at those 5 northernmost TAF sites in our coverage area. Rain will then diminish to intermittent rain showers through sunrise. Things get more complicated as it becomes a timing issue of the mixing with and eventual changeover to snow. The changeover will occur from NW to SE across central-southern MN into western WI, thus AXN-STC have the best chance prior to 00z tomorrow evening. MSP looks to occur right around 00z, potentially an hour or two earlier than that, but there is still time to refine that timing. The remaining southern and eastern TAF sites are expected to remain as rain throughout this duration.

Winds will remain SE to S through the early morning hours, then quickly shift to SW and W around daybreak tomorrow and remain there through the day Wednesday. Speeds will continue to run around 15G25kts, with W and S MN nearing 20G30kts at times, through the daytime hours Wednesday then diminish Wednesday evening.

Ceilings have started out generally in VFR range, then will drop to MVFR this evening as precipitation develops, with western- central MN (thus AXN-STC) likely dropping to IFR for a period overnight. Similarly, western WI may have IFR ceilings at times during the day Wednesday.

KMSP...Intermittent rain showers are possible through about midnight, then more sustained rainfall is likely for much of the early morning hours before diminishing towards sunrise. After a small late morning lull, additional rounds of precipitation are likely but as a rain/snow mixture with falling temperatures during the day. Prevailing -SN looks likely after sunset Wednesday and continuing into Wednesday evening. Ceilings will drop into IFR range by about midnight then remain in MVFR for nearly the entire remainder of this TAF duration. IFR ceilings are not expected at this time, but ceilings between 1-2 kft are certainly viable late this evening and again Wednesday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN late. Wind N 10-15 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc IFR/-SN early. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Wednesday for Brown-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 4 PM CST Wednesday for Blue Earth- Faribault-Freeborn-Steele-Waseca. WI...None.