textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light rain showers move through Saturday afternoon & evening, with most locations receiving around 0.10".

- Dry weather persists through much of next week along with above-normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

While mid-level clouds have been encroaching on our area from SD, low-level dry air has largely kept any rain from reaching the surface. Virga will be expected this afternoon and evening as the clouds move east across MN/WI, but did keep 10% PoPs in the forecast in case of a sprinkle. Lows tonight will not be nearly as cool as last night, owing to the greater cloud cover and an incoming warmer air mass ahead of a shortwave. 40s are expected for most places except for our far eastern WI counties where mid to upper 30s are more likely. Highs Saturday will be a few degrees warmer than today, though cloud cover will increase again in the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave approaches. CAMs favor an area of showers developing from central to central to southern MN during the early to mid afternoon, which then travels east into WI by evening. Rainfall amounts currently don't look to be too heavy, though 0.1- 0.2" is a possibility. A localized area could potentially receive more if a stray thunderstorm occurs. If you have outdoor activities planned on Saturday, it would be a good idea to have an umbrella or shelter to dodge the rain. Winds will also be breezy Saturday afternoon out of the south as a LLJ advances ahead of the mid-level trough. Gusts will generally reach 25-30 mph across MN with isolated gusts of 35+ mph possible near the Buffalo Ridge. The winds will turn northwesterly and slow as we go into Saturday night.

After the rain and shortwave moves east during Saturday night, the forecast looks very quiet for most of next week. Long- range deterministic and ensemble guidance shows the upper-level jetstream remaining mainly off to our north. This should allow any shortwaves and their forcing to pass well away from our CWA, greatly limiting our chances for precipitation. Temperatures will slightly cool Sunday and Monday following a cold frontal passage Saturday night. Highs during this time are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s. The best chance for frost in the forecast period will be Sunday night when lows could dip into the mid 30s in eastern MN and northwest WI. Afterwards, temperatures will warm to above normal (highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s) through next Friday as broad ridging builds over the western half of the CONUS. The first full week of October looks great if you have any outdoor activities planned!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

High ceilings will continue to overspread MN/WI tonight into Saturday. A few sprinkles are possible in southern MN this evening with a weak mid-level trough moving across the area but kept mention out of the TAFs due to plentiful low level dry air. A weak cold front will push across the region mid-to-late day Saturday which may bring some scattered rain showers late afternoon for mainly central-eastern MN into western WI, so have maintained PROB30 mention for that possibility. Winds will increase this evening from the S to SE in the 5-10kt range, then become S to SW during the day tomorrow with higher speeds approaching 15G25kts in the afternoon before diminishing Saturday evening. Models have backed off the idea of LLWS so have removed its mention from all TAF sites. Some low level turbulence is possible but not enough to satisfy solid LLWS.

KMSP...VFR throughout this duration with high clouds increasing and lowering overnight through Saturday. Still a low chance of -SHRA late Saturday afternoon so have kept the PROB30 mention going. Winds pick up from the south overnight through Saturday, with speeds peaking in the afternoon around 15G25kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.