textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat indices are on track to reach 105-110 through this afternoon. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect.

- Severe storm chances are highest this evening across portions of western Wisconsin, but there is still some uncertainty in how far west storms develop. Wisconsin remains in a severe risk level 3/5 with the remainder of Minnesota at a 2/5.

- Heat continues with highs in the low 90s through mid week, but dew points are expected to fall into the 60s.

- Storm chances return late in the forecast period

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Before 11am, heat indices in southeastern Minnesota have already climbed into the upper 90s thanks to dew points pushing 80. Further west, it's quite a bit cooler following last night's thunderstorms. Some cloud cover is also playing into this, but clouds will continue to clear and allow temperatures to warm quickly into the mid to upper 90s by early afternoon. We'll have no trouble seeing apparent temperatures top 100 area wide with readings near or above 110 possible across southern Minnesota. These temperatures and dew points will contribute to a very unstable airmass with CAPE values topping 3000 J/kg. However, models continue to show 700mb temps somewhere around 13 to 14C which would help to limit convection. The main focus for severe weather later today will likely lie across Wisconsin, where damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threat. As mentioned in the previous discussion, if 700mb temps do end up being a degree or two cooler, we could see things evolve further west across Minnesota. CAMs have pretty consistently been showing storms firing in the Arrowhead and tracking into northern Wisconsin as an MCS this evening, so confidence remains highest for our easternmost Wisconsin counties. SPC did introduce a large enhanced risk (level 3/5) that includes pretty much all of Wisconsin with the slight risk area still extending back into western Minnesota. Did a morning PoP update to raise precip chances (10-20%) CWA wide to keep messaging with SPC more consistent.

Heading into Monday, highs will be in the 90s again, but we'll see winds switch around to the northwest, allowing some drier air to work into the region. This will help tamp down heat indices a little, but readings in the mid to upper 90s are still possible across our south. Went ahead and expanded the Heat Advisory from just the Twin Cities metro to include southern Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin. By Wednesday, the axis of the 500mb ridge will extend up through the Dakotas. A shortwave along the top of this ridge will move across the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota sometime late Wednesday/early Thursday, which brings in our next round of precip chances. The timing of this feature will impact whether or not we see strong to severe storms on Thursday. Looking ahead, some low precip chances remain in place with highs in the upper 80s to start the month of August.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

We're still in a wait-and-see mode for how storms over northern MN evolve. We're really waiting on a shortwave moving into the northwest corner of MN to help kick off more robust convection in the next couple of hours. Current expectations fall in line with the HRRR in the sense that we'll have a favored corridor for convection from Duluth into central WI overnight. This means EAU is our one airport that has a TS threat that rises to the point of supporting a prob30. Otherwise, the only thing driving forecast groups this period is a wind shift for a cold front that will move across the area Monday morning, turning the winds from the south over to the NW and N.

KMSP...You can't completely rule out TS tonight, but it's looking more and more likely that storms tonight will pass well east of MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. TSRA likely in evening. Wind SSW 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka- Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota- Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright- Yellow Medicine. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown- Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan. WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin- Pierce-St. Croix.