textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated storms ongoing this afternoon over parts of southeastern MN and western WI.

- Increasing signal for a potential MCS and attendant severe weather and heavy rain risk late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Dry weather with near normal temperatures expected Thursday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

It's a much quieter afternoon to end the weekend, with only a few isolated showers sporadically popping up across west- central WI and southeast MN. Regional satellite shows the area of storms and increased moisture wedged under the building ridge axis that's keeping much of us under weak subsidence. The nice weather under this ridge will continue into Monday before an eastward propagating cold front influences thunderstorm development across the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Thinking remains largely the same with this system... the line of storms will attempt to push east into Minnesota, but with no LLJ to help sustain them, it should wane off relatively quickly overnight. As a result, the latest NBM PoPs are beginning to converge towards a solution for Monday night where the line is only able to move into parts of central MN before falling apart. PoPs have trended down and are generally capped around 30-50 percent.

The remnants of these storms will set up a boundary for additional storm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now, that boundary is favored to stall across central MN, but it really just depends on how those Monday night storms evolve. Wherever this boundary sets up will be primed for a healthy amount of rain, especially if you factor in the Monday night convection. The latest WPC QPF paints a broad footprint of 1-2" along the boundary, from Monday night through Tuesday night. Given PWAT anomalies could be near 170-200 percent of normal (for July), it is very realistic to expect some areas could receive well over 2" in that timeframe as well. There will also likely be an environment conducive for the development of a more organized convective system during the second half of the day Tuesday south of the boundary. A strengthening LLJ accompanied with steep lapse rates and increasing dewpoints should support this forward propagating MCS, though the exact details will be influenced by sub-synoptic developments with low predictability this far out. The "double slight" remains in place for both the severe and excessive rainfall risks.

Things quiet down again after the rain clears out Wednesday, with a relatively weak jet aloft and low amplitude ridging. Temperatures and dewpoints are expected to come down a bit for the Wednesday through Friday timeframe with low precipitation chances unless any sort of subtle kink in the heights develops on any given day. It continues to look like ridging will dominate the western half of the CONUS heading into the week of July 13th, and it will just be a matter of how far east the edge of the ridge spreads to determine how much we warm up again.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions expected for all locations throughout the period with only a conditional threat at the last few hours for AXN for -TSRA. A few fair weather 5000ft cumulus are possible after 15z lasting through 00-01z before mostly upper level clouds return. Beyond the end of the period, we may begin to introduce further -TSRA chances depending on how the guidance trends over the next few periods. Winds will be relatively light and variable, favoring 110-140 below 5kts.

KMSP...There is a non-zero chance for -TSRA generally later in the period, but confidence was too low to include for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5kts. WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.