textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Not as warm and breezy today.

- Fire weather concerns increase heading into the weekend as a result of warming temperatures & strong southerly winds.

- Cooler early next week with the return of light precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Today...Latest water vapor imagery shows the apex of a trough draped across the Great Lakes region and continuing eastward. Meanwhile to our west, ridging is in place over the PacNorthwest, thus leaving us locally saddled between these features and beneath a 50-70kt jetstreak. Surface high pressure will hold firm over the northern plains today although conditions will not be as breezy and sunny as they were yesterday. Weak remnant upper-forcing from the departing trough will allow for scattered mid to high level cloud cover. With the return of NW flow, highs this afternoon are expected to warm only into the low to mid 60s. Although, a few sites across southwestern MN could see closer to 70 degrees. Lows tonight will range in the 40s.

Friday and this weekend...As mentioned in the previous discussion, Friday is a transition day between a cooler and a much warmer airmass that arrives this weekend. During the pre-dawn hours of Friday, a weak disturbance develops over the central plains and moves northeast. As this occurs, a weak LLJ 30-40kts will increase over Iowa and have enough lift to generate a low-end potential for a short period of showers Friday morning near the MN/IA border. SW'ly flow becomes dominate and will allow for warm advection to return with highs in to the 70s. By Saturday, robust low pressure sweeps across the Canadian Prairies which forces warm advection to kick into high gear. Winds will become gusty and becoming as strong as 30-40 mph. Forecast highs will reach the low to mid-80s. Given the drier airmass in place precip will not be of concern here. It is more so the gusty winds combined with very warm temperatures which maintain a concern for near- critical fire weather conditions. By Sunday, the low pressure system tracks farther east however lingering warmth and breezy conditions could make elevated fire weather conditions through Sunday afternoon.

By Sunday night into early next week, a cold front dives southeast into MN/WI. Much cooler air follows in tow behind this cold front as temperatures will only reach the 50s/lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s for the first half of the week. As for precip associated with this front, PoPs have decreased slightly with the latest NBM simply due to uncertainties with the slow progression of this wave and remnants of Hurricane Isaias.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR through the period across all sites. WNW'ly winds will remain light through early this morning before increasing slightly below 10kts. Scattered to broken upper-level clouds will gradually lower to mid-level heights ~12-15z timeframe and linger for the remainder of the period. Winds become light and variable this evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 15-25G35kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.