textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening along a passing cold front. A few severe thunderstorms could produce large hail and gusty winds.

- Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather through the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Early afternoon satellite imagery together with surface obs showed mostly clear skies across the region. A broad area of surface high pressure was centered over the Great Lakes, leading to light surface winds that were starting to take on a easterly direction. For the rest of today, expect dry conditions to continue.

Overnight, the light winds will start to take on a southerly direction as a upper level wave, with an accompanying weak surface low and cold front, approach from the northwest. These southerly winds should keep fog development at bay. After midnight, showers and thunderstorms are expected to move from North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. This should be north of a line from Alexandria to Lake Mille Lacs.

By early Thursday afternoon, light southerly winds together with partly sunny skies will lead to instability rebuilding across the region ahead of the weak surface front. This will support scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A few storms could produce gusty winds and large hail. SPC did upgrade the Marginal Risk to a Slight Risk for some locations, but honestly the overall threat was right on the marginal/slight line, so nothing really changed from a meteorological standpoint. The lack of forcing, and relatively moist mid level lapse rates are some limiting factors for widespread thunderstorms. Storms will move southeast during the evening, and should be out of the area by midnight.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...No major changes from the previous forecast. The weak cold front will be through the area on Friday, meaning dry conditions, but temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the low 80s.

Looking ahead, these temperatures will continue this weekend and into next week. From a big picture perspective, northwest flow will remain in place across the Upper Midwest. This is a dry pattern, as we're never able to tap into and gulf moisture. That said, a few weak disturbances will be embedded in this northwest flow and move across the region, brining periodic small chances for showers or thunderstorms. Most locations will stay dry. Monday night into Tuesday will be the "best" chances for rain, but even then the probability is only around 30 percent.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions continue today and tonight with FEW-SCT cu around 6-7k ft. Mostly clear skies are expected through the night until mid-high level clouds begin to advect in along a southeastward- advancing cold front tomorrow. This front will likely initiate at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will turn primarily out of the south for all sites by tonight, and increase out of the southwest after sunrise tomorrow.

KMSP...There is a very low (5-15%) chance for -SHRA tomorrow morning, but otherwise the best chance for rain and any TS would be just after 00z at the end of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU PM...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 8-13 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.