textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather concerns continue tomorrow due to gusty winds and dry conditions.

- Blowing dust ongoing across western MN this afternoon. Slightly lower wind speeds should limit the blowing dust risk tomorrow. - Band of showers and isolated thunder moves eastward through MN/WI through this evening.

- Widespread wet and stormy weather returns to the region this weekend into early next week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...Several moving parts to the forecast this afternoon as we're monitoring critical fire weather conditions, tracking low visibility due to blowing dust, and watching a line of broken showers/isolated thunder moving eastward across the forecast area. We'll break it all down in a few sections below:

Forecast Setup: Water vapor satellite imagery captures an upper- low pivoting northeast over southern Saskatchewan. At the surface, a 980s mb surface low was stacked beneath the upper- low. A channel of strong southerly flow has developed across a warm sector positioned over eastern Dakotas/western MN, which is located between surface low to the northwest and high pressure centered near Lake Michigan. Strong southerly surface winds continue to gust upwards of 35-45 mph across western MN as a resulting of the tightening pressure gradient and efficient mixing up to 5-7k feet. Occlusion of the surface cyclone will send a cold front eastward across the region tonight, turning the winds westerly for Friday.

Fire Weather Concerns Today/Tomorrow: Latest observations reveal slam dunk Red Flag conditions across western MN due to the strong southerly gusts in excess of 35 mph and RH's between 20-25 percent. A Red Flag Warning continues this afternoon across western MN and we did make a short term extension to include central MN due to observational trends. Looking ahead to Friday, the passage of a cold front will turn the winds westerly and diurnal mixing should yield near-critical peak gusts between 20-30 mph. While these winds will be less intense than today, the post-frontal air mass will be both drier and warmer (Highs in the 80s to near 90 Friday!). Deep mixing of the post frontal air mass should easily drop RH's into the 10-20 percent range. The very low RH's and breezy westerly flow will create Red Flag conditions across western and central MN and Polk, Barron, Rusk counties in western WI. We've collaborated with neighboring offices to convert the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning across this region from late morning into the evening Friday. Despite the hot, dry, and breezy conditions across southeastern MN (including the TC Metro) and western WI (along I-94), the progress of the "Spring green-up" will work to mitigate the fire weather threat.

Blowing Dust: Another impact from the strong southerly winds is the development of areas of blowing dust across western MN. It was just this past Tuesday when strong northwesterly winds produced streaks of blowing dust that dropped visibility below a quarter to half mile and created travel challenges. There was some question how the southerly shift in the winds and afternoon showers/storms would impact the blowing dust scenario today. However, recent observations (both surface observations and MnDOT cameras) show visibility reductions due to dust. We opted to issue a Blowing Dust Advisory across western MN where visibility reductions due to dust will remain possible into this evening. We'll assess the status of the blowing dust later this afternoon and may consider an extension of the headline into the evening should conditions warrant.

Showers/Isolated Thunderstorms: KMPX radar captures a broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms that has developed on the leading edge of a MUCAPE gradient near the the Dakotas/MN state borders. Forecast soundings indicate that instability is a limiting factor for more robust convective development, though it should be noted that isolated lightning strikes are possible owing to the narrow ribbon of a few hundred joules of MUCAPE. The band of showers and isolated storms is forecast to move eastward through this afternoon and evening. A very dry lowest 7-8k feet of the atmosphere casts doubt in how much precipitation will reach the surface as much of what we see on radar may actually be virga. That said, the strongest storms will be a capable of producing a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of precipitation. Steep low-level lapse rates and dry low- level air may aid in bringing stronger gusts down as the line moves east, so we may need to issue additional Special Weather Statements for 45+ mph gusts over the coming hours.

WET & STORMY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND...Westerly zonal flow aloft Friday night/Saturday will give way to troughing over the western CONUS through the weekend. This evolution will send a series of shortwaves northeast within the large scale southwesterly flow Sunday through Tuesday. Multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms will move through the Upper Midwest during this period that will bring heavy rain and the potential for severe weather. Before we get into the main severe weather threat, I want to address a bit of a forecast wild card in the late Friday/Saturday morning timeframe. A subtle shortwave within the zonal flow is progged to track eastward out of the central Plains tomorrow and will combine with a pool of moisture advecting north through MO/IA to support convection across IA and potentially southern MN/western WI along a SW to NE oriented theta-e gradient. Our confidence is not particularly high storms moving into the MPX forecast area given consensus position of the theta-e boundary, though it's possible that convection may cross I-90 in southern MN as highlighted by a few of the recent CAM runs. Do not currently anticipate severe weather in our forecast area, but wanted to highlight the potential for a couple of rumbles of thunder heading into Saturday morning. A cold front will sag south Saturday morning which will cause the theta-e boundary to retreat southward. Should be a pretty nice start to the weekend with light northwesterly flow and highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

SPC has highlighted the Upper Midwest with Day 4/5 severe weather probabilities. On Sunday (Day 4) the entire forecast area is under the 15 percent outlook (Slight Risk) and communities along and southwest of the MN River in southwestern MN are under a 30 percent (Enhanced Risk) area. On Monday (Day 5), nearly the entire MPX forecast area is outlooked under the 15 percent severe weather risk probability. While timing and details will change and it's still a little too early to lock into specifics, we can identify a general time line of expectations given the synoptic nature of the setup. It all begins late Saturday as a shortwave within the the upper-flow lifts northeast through the eastern Plains. An associated ~40-50kt low-level jet will nose northward into southern MN and support the advection of deeper moisture (lower 60s dew points) into the region. Supported by the LLJ, the northward surging moisture gradient will be an area favorable for nocturnal convection. With that said, it's not surprising to see early runs from the long term RRFS suggest a nocturnal MCS lifting into the forecast area on the nose of the jet. This initial round of convection will likely be elevated and present a heavy rain and hail threat. It could be a loud start to Sunday!

What happens after Sunday morning is more uncertain, however the setup bears watching for severe thunderstorms. A stout EML characterized by mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 degC/km should work to cap the environment through the rest of the morning and afternoon hours on Sunday. Strong instability is forecast to build across a warm sector from eastern NE through IA and southern MN. Uncertainty exists surrounding convective mode and the main forcing mechanism, though the potentially volatile environment bears watching for severe thunderstorms across the region later in the day. A stronger wave is forecast to round the base of a longwave trough Sunday into Monday and will be the focus for renewed rain and thunderstorm chances for the first day of the work week. Pattern recognition and consensus position of the mid-level features would favor eastern MN into WI for the greatest potential of deeper convection, though will need to wait for greater confidence in Sunday's evolution to address timing/hazards for Monday. Beyond severe weather, ensembles means and WPC are advertising widespread 1-2"+ rainfall amounts from the multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. All of this to say the forecast is turning in a much different direction to close the weekend and open next week. On a positive note, the influx of moisture and wet weather should work to end fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 111 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Remnant rain showers continue to make their way east across Wisconsin early this morning and should clear of EAU vicinity over the next hour or so. Areas with mid to upper level cigs will also become mostly clear as this front continues east. RNH and EAU have yet to observe the passage of the frontal boundary therefore winds remain out of the south however they are expected to shift southwesterly around sunrise. By mid to late morning, all sites can expect winds to increase once again but are not anticipated to be as breezy as yesterday. Therefore should range between 18-25kts out of the west. MKT and EAU do have a small chance of rain and potentially some thunder, but confidence was higher south of each of these sites to include in the TAF at this time.

KMSP...Short period of 45kt LLWS ending at 10z this morning. Skies become mostly clear with southeasterly winds shifting westerly by mid-morning. Winds wont be as breezy as yesterday but still can expect gusts today reaching between 15-20kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SUN...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind ESE 10-15G30kts. MON...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind SW 15-20G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens- Swift-Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for Barron-Polk-Rusk.