textproduct: Twin Cities
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through the week.
- Chances for rain are not in the forecast until this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
It's another mostly clear morning area wide with temperatures ranging from the 30s in parts of central MN to 40s and a few 50s across southern MN and WI. A few think high clouds are streaming northeast from the central Plains, but have been dissipating before reaching MN. Models are not handling the sky cover particularly well and are too bullish with coverage.
Highs yesterday exceeded the NBM 90th percentile by up to 7 degrees in some locations. While today is expected to be cooler, 925 mb temps suggest some locations will again exceed the 90th percentile. Highs in the mid to upper 60s are likely. This is expected to continue to be the case through at least Thursday with an Omega block in place and the mid level ridge axis anchored over the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley. Highs this period were trended closer to the 90th percentile, but this may still be conservative given observations from Sunday and forecast temperature profiles.
A deep trough off the coast of California midweek will make it to the Rockies Friday and spawn an area of low pressure over the northern Rockies and southern Canada. Meridional flow will steer the system north into Canada with its associated cold front making slow eastward progress this weekend. Chances of showers return as the front approaches, but there remains large spread in the guidance with timing and how far east the front will make it before potentially washing out.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Light/variable winds at initialization will pick up from the E to SE in the 5-10kt range as Monday progresses.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 15G25-30 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None. WI...None.
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