textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Today through Tuesday, temperatures warm each day, with highs in the 40s by Tuesday.

- Light mixed precipitation possible northeast of I-94 Monday night/Tuesday morning.

- Unsettled Thursday and Friday, with light snow, though it only looks to amount to less than 4 inches of accumulation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

A surface ridge nudging into western MN has allowed clouds to clear out there, but for eastern MN and western WI, they've stayed stuck in the moist/cyclonic flow, locking the stratus in place. The good news is as we go through the rest of the morning, the surface ridge axis will continue to shift east, push the stratus out of the area as it does so, though we will continue to see some mid and upper level cloud cover. As we get on the backside of the ridge, WAA also kicks in, with highs topping 40 again being possible northeast of the Buffalo Ridge in west central MN. Remnant cold air and snow cover though will keep highs in the 20s for eastern MN and western WI. WAA will continue through tonight, with temperatures likely not dropping much from their highs today. This will put us in another mild Pacific airmass to start the upcoming work week. Based on recent performance in these Pac airmasses, the NBM is likely underdone with highs both Monday and Tuesday, but just how much temperatures will overachieve each day is a bit uncertain, but if you went with the NBM 90th percentile for highs both Monday and Tuesday, that would bump an extra 2-4 degrees to highs area wide both days. This makes Tuesday the warmest day of the period, with highs in the 40s expected pretty much area wide, with lower 50s for highs in southwest MN. From the looks of it though, this may be our last solid thaw the rest of January...

There will be a couple of weak system passing by to our north through Tuesday. Precip with the first one Monday night will remain north of the MPX area. The second one Monday night into Tuesday morning will drop a little farther south. We'll have to watch this system closely, as we'll be on the warm side of the system, which means our area would likely see something other than snow, which could include some light freezing rain. This will be something to watch for area northeast of I-94.

Our mild Pacific airmass will be aggressively pushed out of here Tuesday night, as strong CAA overspreads the area. Besides the threat of snow showers, EPS is showing a pretty strong signal for 40+ mph wind gusts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We'll have a dry high pressure overhead for Wednesday, but for Thursday and Friday, a series of shortwaves looks to move through the region in the northerly flow. That cold front Tuesday night will cut us off from deeper moisture, but Thursday and Friday looks like your classic pattern where it snows a lot, but doesn't amount to much. If someone were to overachieve, they may see 4 inches of snow over the two days.

Behind this series of waves, we'll have a cooler day for Saturday, where highs currently look to top out in the teens, but as we've seen since mid-December, we really struggle sustain the cold air, with highs looking to be back up near normal to end next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1117 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

The IFR/MVFR CIGS have pushed into western WI and will only influence RNH/EAU for the period, with SCT012 at MSP likely to dissipate as mainly high clouds remain. Most sites become BKN/SCT200 to 250 and remain as such for the rest of the period once the low level clouds push southeast. A subtle boundary will move through overnight which could produce a couple hours of LLWS, generally starting at 22z for western sites and end at 04z for eastern sites, however winds may not be strong enough aloft to reach the 35kt threshold to include within the TAF. Winds will shift from 240-270 to 200-230 and remain around 10kts throughout.

KMSP...A brief window of LLWS is present from 00-04z as the boundary moves through, however elected to omit from the TAF as winds look to be below what is necessary to reach the threshold. Besides this, the main thing will be the SCT015 at the beginning of the period moving southeast within the first 6 hours of the TAF, followed by VFR high clouds for the remainder.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA early. Wind NW 10-15G25kts. WED...VFR, chc MVFR early. Wind N 10-15kts. THU...MVFR/-SN likely, chance IFR/LIFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.