textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for strong storms Thursday evening and overnight.

- A low confidence precipitation forecast through Labor Day weekend, with multiple low chances for rain.

- Summer-like temperatures and humidity continue through Labor Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Rain with embedded thunder continue to exit stage right out of western WI early this morning. For our early birds, you may have some light rain to contend with early for the next couple of hours. However, most of if not all rainfall should have diminished by sunrise. High pressure fills in behind last night's activity. Increased subsidence should aid in the production of mostly sunny skies by this afternoon. Temperatures today will range in the lower 80s but with dew points creeping back up into the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat indices near 90 degrees across southern MN.

For tonight, we will need to watch the progress of a warm front that will reside near the MN/IA border, forecast guidance anticipates that this boundary becomes stationary. A weak LLJ will stretch into the southern counties of Minnesota combined with weak WAA, and ~2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This will support another night of rain and a few non-severe thunderstorms across southern MN. An important caveat to all of this is the unknown impact of capping across this region. 700mb temps overnight are forecasted to be around 12C. Given the uncertainty of the capping, continued with the previous shifts' thinking as well as the latest NBM advertising 30-40% PoPs for this period.

For Thursday, the northern plains remains under upper-level ridging with a deepening low over the PacNorthwest. On the eastern periphery of the PacNorthwest trough, a subtle shortwave develops across eastern ND and northwestern MN. This wave is then progged east over the apex of the ridge Thursday evening. Conditions will feel hot and sticky with temperatures in the upper 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. Thursday night into early Friday morning, rain and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop across northwestern MN and move southeast late Thursday afternoon/evening. The storm mode at first starts off as supercellular with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail all being primary hazards. However, as the cells move south and east, they are expected to congeal into a potential MCS transitioning concerns to primarily a damaging wind threat.

As we head into the Labor Day weekend, conditions will remain warm and sticky. Zonal flow aloft will aid in several waves to track across MN/WI and allow for near daily rain/thunder chances. Highs in the mid to upper 80s with dew points still in the 70s. It is not until early next week to where temperatures return to the lower 80s and 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions expected today as any morning showers and thunderstorms should fall apart. Winds will be light, and generally out of the east.

Later tonight an area of showers and thunderstorms will develop across Iowa and lift northward. For now, just included a Prob30 group at KMKT, but this may need to get expanded to include KRWF, KEAU, KMSP, and KRNH if they system trends further north.

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout with a small chance for a light rain shower this morning. Otherwise expect a mix of sun and high clouds with light easterly winds.

Later tonight into early Thursday morning there could be some showers and thunderstorms that lift up from the south, but for now confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR, with -SHRA possible early, and -TSRA possible late. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Small chance for -TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.