textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot & humid today into saturday with heat index values of 95-100 possible. Heat Advisory in effect for Twin Cities metro during the afternoon.

- Frequent chances for scattered showers & thunderstorms into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Heat and humidity are the main weather concern for today, with widespread heat indices in the 90s expected this afternoon. A pool of dewpoints in the low 70s remain across much of the southern half of MN and western WI, however northerly winds and outflow from last night's storms will usher in lower dewpoints. This will limit heat indices from getting too out of control, though southern MN may hold onto enough of this moisture into the afternoon to approach 100 degree heat indices. The urban heat island of the Twin Cities metro will be the most vulnerable to heat impacts, with afternoon heat indices hovering right around that lower threshold of 95F. At the same time, WBGT are forecasted to be around 84-85F in the metro as well, even with our lower sun angle this time of year. This reaches a threshold for high risk of heat related illness and suggests limited exercise outside, especially for vulnerable populations. We have opted to go ahead with a metro- specific Heat Advisory despite the uncertainty and borderline values. It will be hot today regardless of thresholds and given that it is early September, it felt worthwhile to give the extra messaging boost for this anomalous heat. Our most recent Heat Advisory for the metro dates back to July 27th.

The best chance for any storms today will be along the MN/IA border, though the latest hi-res guidance continues to trend dry for the region.

We remain in a hot and stormy pattern with ridging in place overhead through early next week. Long range guidance continues to favor storms and appreciable rainfall over western MN and the Dakotas where better forcing from northeastward advancing shortwave disturbances is expected. The SWODY2 and 3 both depict this idea as well, with the marginal risks each day only clipping a part of western MN. The best chance for widespread precip will likely come some time Monday into Tuesday as a more organized shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge. Winds will then increase out of the northwest and advect in more seasonable temperatures and drier air through the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Only wrinkle will be early morning fog at multiple sites with winds going nearly calm and very few to no cloud cover for the early morning hours through daybreak. Most susceptible at this time looks to be AXN-STC-RNH-EAU. Otherwise, once past sunrise, skies partially clear out with no significant issues. Light winds overnight before more NE during the day with speeds under 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...Chc SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. MON...Likely SHRA, chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. TUE...Likely SHRA, chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott- Washington. WI...None.