textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Frosts or freezes are expected tonight, Thursday night, and Friday night.

- A few showers are possible this afternoon across southwest MN and across south central MN to west central WI Friday afternoon. Additional low chances arrive this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

It's a rinse and repeat kind of weather pattern, with what we saw Wednesday basically repeating itself today and Friday. The culprit is the broad upper low centered between Lake Superior and Hudson Bay. Through Friday, we'll remain within the cyclonic flow of this upper low, which will keep bouts of cloud cover and light rain showers going. The first wave moved across southwest MN overnight and will be moving into Iowa shortly after sunrise. The next wave was up across northern NoDak at 2am. This wave will continue southeast, with most HREF members showing scattered showers this afternoon and tonight going down the MN River Valley from west central down to south central MN. There will be one more small chance for showers Friday afternoon as diurnal activity tries to develop for roughly the southeast half of the MPX coverage area. Besides the shower chances, we'll have lows through Friday night falling down to around the freezing mark, with a frost/freeze threat continuing each night, though it will be driven by the amount of cloud cover we see. Given the uncertainties in cloud cover, we have no additional frost/freeze headlines after this morning, but that will likely change as we get a better handle on cloud cover extent each night.

This weekend, we finally get out of the cyclonic flow, which will allow a milder airmass to nudge back into the area, with highs expected to be back up near normal (60s). Though we'll be out of the cyclonic flow, we'll be in a perturbed northwest flow, so nuisance shortwave passages will continue. The first will come through Saturday night, with a stronger cold front dropping through Monday morning. Behind the Monday front, we get back into cyclonic flow as the h5 low nudges back west toward northwest Ontario. This means even more nuisance shortwaves and minor rain chances. This cyclonic flow also looks to feature a renewed push of cooler air for the second half of next week. This will push highs back into the 50s, with low again flirting with 32 degrees Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Solid VFR conditions with mid-level clouds throughout, varying between SCT-BKN coverage. Very low chance for precipitation in western MN, and only passing showers at that, so have maintained the PROB30 mention at both AXN and RWF for later this afternoon into the early evening hours. NW to N winds throughout with sustained speeds 10kts or less, though through sunset there may be some occasional gusts 15-20kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.