textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm today, with critical fire weather conditions across western MN improving this evening. - A very strong cold front will trek east through the area on Friday. Thunderstorms will develop on the front near I-35 early Friday afternoon. A few storms could be severe, mainly east of I-35.

- Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 421 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Fire weather conditions remain the primary concern to start the period, with southerly winds gusting between 30 to 40 mph and relative humidity values into the teens and low 20s across western MN this afternoon. This is in response to the low pressure that is centered over southeastern NoDak. As we get into the evening, conditions will gradually improve. For anywhere else, it has been arguably a top 10 weather day with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

As the low pressure system becomes more organized, a strong cold front will develop and begin to progress eastwards through MN overnight. Temperatures will be much, much colder behind it. The 24 hour temperature change will easily be around 40 to 50 degrees cooler. As such, many locations may have the high temperature of the day actually occur overnight. This strong temperature difference will provide abundant forcing for a round of storms to form along the cold front.

The front may be as far east as the Twin Cities metro and Mankato by mid-late morning. There is lower confidence on how early storms would develop, though any that do could have a lower-end severe threat. This would primarily be a threat for hail as storm mode would start off more discrete or in clusters. Not everyone will see storms across central and eastern MN, in fact many will likely only see showers or nothing at all. As the front progresses east into Wisconsin, any of the initial storms will very quickly grow in a large cluster or line along the front. Forecast soundings continue to highlight a favorable low-level shear environment across central WI along the surface low pressure track. All hazards will become a threat as this storm mode evolution occurs across WI. A Slight Risk (2 of 5) remains for much of our W WI counties and SE MN, and a sliver of Eau Claire county in an Enhanced Risk (3 of 5). The main takeaway with this is that the highest confidence for severe storms exists for areas that are far enough east of the cold front for afternoon heating to occur. That line will be east of Eau Claire by late afternoon, if not earlier, resulting in a cold and breezy day for much of the region. Wrap-around, CAA snow showers will be possible Friday evening into Saturday, though little to no accumulation is expected. The best snow potential is across northern MN and Canada.

The pattern will then dry out through the middle of next week. Temperatures begin to rebound as a surface high shifts to the east and warm air advection ramps up in the southerly return flow. Highs will return back into the 60s and 70s for the first half of the new work week before another organized system looks to impact the Upper Midwest.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR should continue through much of the period before a cold front begins to sweep west to east through the area. In addition to causing winds to turn from out of the south to out of the northwest, MVFR conditions with ceilings around 2-3 kft may occur, although confidence is a bit low (55%). Ahead of the front, mid level clouds and low level jet will be on the increase and, depending on surface winds, some areas will see wind shear in the lowest 2kft of the atmosphere - if surface winds continue to gust overnight, LLWS may remain muted. Moving ahead toward the latter part of the period, showers and thunderstorms may (30%) develop.

KMSP...Timing and placement of TS after 15z Friday remains the main concern. At this time, it is favored to occur south/east of the terminal and track eastward, so have only carried a PROB30 for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the late morning and early afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa- Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.