textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool & mostly cloudy weather continues this week. Rain chances Thursday mainly across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Widespread freezing temperatures likely Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Quite the change from the record-breaking warmth over the weekend as much cooler Canadian air continues to settle over the Upper Midwest. A few rain showers have developed across western Minnesota where clearer skies lead to some surface instability in addition to the cold cyclonic flow aloft. These showers will continue into central & eastern Minnesota until sunset, & a rumble or two of thunder can't be ruled out. The cooler temperatures continue through the rest of the week as continued northerly flow & mostly cloudy skies keep temperatures mainly in the 50s to low 60s.

Our next chance for rain arrives Thursday as an upper-level low moves northeast out of the Rockies into the central Plains. Rain should spread into southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin during the morning and continue through the afternoon & evening. Most of the moisture with this system will remain south of the area across the mid-Mississippi valley along with the heaviest rainfall across Iowa & southern Minnesota. rainfall amounts will generally range around 0.25-0.50" across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin & around 0.1" or less farther north.

A colder airmass moves into the region behind Thursdays system as a strong upper-level trough digs into the Great Lakes & cold Canadian high pressure moves over the Upper Midwest. Gusty northwest winds & highs only in the low to mid 50s are expected Friday before high pressure brings clearing skies & diminishing winds Friday night. This sets the stage for widespread freezing temperatures Saturday morning, with lows generally in the upper 20s to low 30s across much of central & southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. AI weather models continue to run several degrees colder than the traditional physical models & ensembles for Saturday morning, which adds confidence to the potential for a widespread freeze based on observed trends from last fall. The extent of the colder temperatures will depend on how quickly winds diminish Friday night, but this is increasingly looking like a growing season ending freeze for much of the area.

The cold spell will be brief as upper-level ridging builds back into the Upper Midwest over the weekend. Temperatures rebound into the upper 50s to low 60s this weekend, followed by widespread 60s & potentially low 70s early next week. Dry weather looks to continue into next week with only a low chance at showers & thunderstorms depending on the timing of a frontal passage Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Prevailing MVFR cigs to continue through much of the TAF. -SHRA with some embedded pulses of lightning will continue to make its way to the ENE over the next couple of hours from west to east. RNH/EAU are expected to be precip free by 02-04z if not sooner. NW winds becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will increase to 5-7kts, out of the NE by the afternoon.

KMSP...light rain showers will remain in the vicinity of MSP for the next hour so. Latest obs have shown inconsistent pulses of lightning in the current line of precip however support for any strikes will continue to diminish. Otherwise, MVFR cigs will linger through much of the period. NW winds shift northerly overnight then becoming NE'ly tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind lgt & vrbl bcmg NW 8-12 kts. FRI...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NW 15-20G25-30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind 10kts increasing to 15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.