textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm today, with critical fire weather conditions across western MN on this afternoon. - A very strong cold front will trek east through the area on Friday. Thunderstorms will develop on the front near I-35 early Friday afternoon. A few storms could be severe, mainly east of I-35.

- Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Today and Tonight: Current observations reveal temperatures in the 40s and 50s, with light and variable winds across the region. Southerly winds will ramp up after daybreak with gusts up to 30 mph likely across western Minnesota. Our primary concern today will be near critical fire weather conditions across western Minnesota. Temperatures will warm in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region ahead of the next low pressure system. The combination of gusty southerly winds and low RH values between 15 to 25 percent prompted an upgrade of our Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for portions of west-central and southwest MN. Warm air advection via the southerly winds will keep our low temperatures tonight close to our average high temperatures for this time of year. Lows will be in the 50s to 60 in the Twin Cities.

Friday and Friday night: Attention turns to Friday as a strong cold front is progged to move through the region late morning and afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and 70s ahead of the front, but the frontal passage will cause temperatures fall 20 to 25 degrees in the afternoon. Storms and showers will develop along the frontal boundary around lunchtime/Noon. Guidance suggests the storms really get going east of I-35 in western Wisconsin. The environment in the warm sector is favorable for severe weather. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms start off as discrete cells before quickly congealing into a squall line that'll pose a primary wind/tornado threat as it moves east across WI. A Slight Risk (2 of 5) remains for much of our W WI counties, but a sliver of Eau Claire county is now in an Enhanced Risk (3 of 5). Forecast soundings highlight a very favorable low level shear environment across central WI along the sfc low pressure track. Overall, the best threat of severe weather is east of our forecast area, but we'll have to keep an eye on the initial thunderstorms that develop Friday afternoon. These could produce hail and damaging winds before turning into a linear mode.

Precipitation will changeover to snow Friday evening as colder air works in. Thankfully, the snow potential remains well off to our north. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and lower 30s Friday night with. A few

Saturday through next Thursday: Saturday and Sunday are going to a snap back to more typical April weather with highs in the 40s and low 50. A few "mood flakes" are possible on Saturday with cold air aloft under the high pressure, but nothing more than that. The pattern will dry out through middle of next week. Temperatures begin to rebound as the surface high shifts to the east and warm air advection ramps up in the southerly return flow. Highs will return back into the 60s and 70s for the first half of the new work week before another organized system looks to impact the Upper Midwest.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

I have opted to maintain a TEMPO from 09-13z Thursday for developing fog at EAU with visibilities periodically dropping from MVFR to 1sm (LIFR). Fog should develop in the valley after the mid-level cloud deck moves out overnight. Fog will burn off quickly by mid-morning. Elsewhere, VFR is expected is expected the entire period. Southerly winds persist across western MN tonight while they'll be light and variable at the other terminals in C/E MN and W WI. Southerly winds will increase in speed by mid-morning at all sites. Gusts will near 30 knots for AXN and RWF during the afternoon hours. Gusts will reach 25 knots in central and eastern MN during the afternoon.

KMSP... No Additional Concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.