textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple flurries in western/southwestern Minnesota through this evening. No accumulation expected. Additional light snow chances Tuesday night and Friday morning are not expected to result in accumulation.

- Gradual warm up this week with the warmest day on Thursday. A slight cool down through the weekend before continued above normal temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Radar imagery out of western Minnesota this afternoon looks much more robust than it actually is thanks to some low level dry air which has kept even the stronger radar echoes from producing much beyond some light flurries. A few automated stations have reported some light snow but none as of 2pm have reported lower than 6 mile visibility, meaning the snow is incredibly light. This is expected to continue as the echoes dive south to southeast for the rest of today, with dry conditions returning overnight for the remainder of the area. The next feature to look at is a line of cloud cover slowly moving southwards currently stretching from roughly Fargo to just south of Duluth, which is expected to slowly dissipate as it collides with the dry mid level air over southern Minnesota. There is some discrepancy within the high resolution guidance as to the spread of the clouds overnight, with the HRRR/RAP showing overcast skies by the early morning while others show clear skies, and the main consequence of the cloud cover is how low temperatures drop overnight. Right now our forecast would call for clouds to dissipate as they move southwards, resulting in less than 50 percent cloud cover which would bring slightly cooler temperatures, reflected in overnight lows reaching the single digits below zero in central Minnesota down to the single digits above zero in the far south, with areas that see a bit more cloud cover reaching a few degrees warmer.

Weak surface high pressure will slide across the area tomorrow resulting in yet another cooler than normal day with highs in the teens and overnight lows into Wednesday dropping near to below zero, however a warm front looks to move in early Wednesday morning resulting in another chance for some light flurries. Still not expecting much in the way of accumulation as the forcing is relatively weak, with the main consequence being warmer air flowing into the region at the lower levels which will help temperatures rise significantly into Thursday. Based on our expected 850mb temperatures being 10-15C warmer than normal, if we manage to mix some of the warmer temperatures down we could be looking at some low to mid 40s in southwestern Minnesota, up to the mid to upper 30s in the Twin Cities and central Minnesota, and some upper 20s in western Wisconsin by Thursday afternoon. This is also due to a secondary warm front stretching from a stronger surface low in Canada moving through earlier in the day on Thursday, with this front expected to be dry with little moisture to work with, although some isolated flurries cannot be ruled out once again. Temperatures tumble down a bit over the weekend as the weak cold front from the same system will once again push some colder temperatures aloft, however weak winds at the surface should be able to keep us near to above normal through weekend before another weak warm front looks to elevate temperatures again to start next week. The longer range ensembles favor some warmer than normal temperatures continuing through the middle of the month, however once we get into midweek next week there is some significant spread with the mean temperatures near to slightly above normal. Depending on how quickly we can erode our relatively fresh powder on top of what was previously a crusted snowpack, we could have a chance to make another run at some 40s next week. For now, expect the milder temperatures with only minor chances for additional precipitation through next week and any larger systems delayed until the second half of the month.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Short term aviation concerns focus on radar echoes across southern MN that have produced isolated flurries. Included a short TEMPO for visibility reductions at RWF where flurries have been ongoing and prevailed with a VFR -SN mention at MKT. Widespread deck of VFR cigs (with embedded pockets of MVFR tied to the flurries) will slowly advance to the south as surface high pressure and subsidence build in from the northwest. Light winds and clearing skies should generally be the theme through the night, however some guidance still advertises the idea of some low clouds developing. Think this is most likely the case across NW MN, where LAMP guidance is the most bullish with low clouds/ground fog. Otherwise, confidence is low in MVFR/IFR cigs developing at area terminals as drier air builds in. Have maintained FEW/SCT020 mention in several TAFs and will monitor trends this evening should a cig scenario become more likely. Winds remain light and variable heading into tomorrow.

KMSP...Latest hi-res guidance has backed off the mention of an MVFR/IFR cig overnight into Wednesday morning. Will keep FEW020 in the TAF for now and will monitor trends to the north this evening. Otherwise, a quiet TAF period is in store with light winds due to the approach of a sfc high.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.