textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very dry & windy conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon.

- Southwest winds gust to 35-45 mph late this morning through the afternoon.

- Very warm temperatures continue through Monday, followed by more seasonable temperatures the rest of the week.

- A few chances for precipitation through the week, no major systems expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

We're seeing temperatures bottom out into the teens across much of the area overnight, as prime radiational cooling conditions have developed with broad high pressure sitting directly over the region. SOutherly winds will increase through the morning as the high pressure slides off to the east with gusts increasing to 35-45 mph by mid to late morning, and remaining elevated through the sunset. The strongest wind gusts will be located across southwest Minnesota, & a few sporadic gusts near 50 mph can't be ruled out up on the Buffalo Ridge where deep mixing will be maximized. The strong southerly flow will also allow for temperatures to rebound quickly from this morning, with highs in the 60s likely across western Minnesota & generally mid to upper 50s elsewhere. In addition to the warm temperatures, very dry air will remain in place behind the canadian high pressure, & will likely become even drier during the afternoon when deep mixing is maximized. Very dry conditions are expected today with dew points falling well into the teens across much of the area by the afternoon, possibly into the single digits across southwest Minnesota where the aforementioned deep mixing will be maximized. This will result in relative humidity values falling below 20% across the entire area, possibly approaching 10% across southwest Minnesota. This combination of warm, very dry, & windy conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions & any outdoor burning is strongly discouraged this afternoon.

Temperatures remain well-above normal Sunday & Monday as upper level ridging becomes more pronounced over the central CONUS. Ensemble guidance suggests temperature anomalies top out in the 25-30 degree range Monday afternoon when widespread highs in the 70s look possible if not some 80s across southern Minnesota. The jet stream becomes more active over the region beginning Tuesday, when a cold front is likely to move through MN & WI. Guidance remains widely spread on the timing & location of numerous potential systems through the week as the jet remains active overhead, but it does appear that any appreciable precipitation will remain off to our north & east through at least midweek. Temperatures look to return to more normal values by Wednesday & remain there into the weekend. Guidance has trended more in agreement towards a deep trough developing over the central CONUS by the end of the week, leading to a chance for a system with more widespread precipitation across the entire Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday. Temperatures mostly look warm enough to keep any precipitation through the week as all rain, but it's always possible that we see the timing setup where precipitation falls during the coldest overnight hours & thus can't totally rule out a slushy, short- lived, bit of snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The only notable changes to this TAF period were lowering the mid-level clouds this morning into the afternoon to 10000 feet and adding 40 knots of southwesterly LLWS at EAU tonight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with south- southwesterly winds strengthening this morning into the afternoon. Strongest winds are expected in western MN where sustained values will range between 20-25 knots while gusts exceed 35 knots. Wind magnitudes decrease to the east but sustained values of 15-20 knots and gusts of 25-30 knots are expected over western WI. Winds will slow to near 5 knots this evening and turn southerly.

KMSP...Sustained south-southwesterly winds will near 20 knots (with gusts to near 30 knots) this afternoon. Continued to omit mentions of LLWS this evening into tonight due to lack of confidence in LLWS strength.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind S 5kts. MON...VFR. Wind E 10kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns- Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Wright. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Lac Qui Parle- Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.