textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat wave continues through mid week with highs in the 90s & heat index values near 100 degrees, along with little cooling relief overnight.

- Little chance for precipitation this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Not much change in the forecast to speak of as strong ridging continues to build over the Upper Midwest, leading to several days of hot & humid conditions. Low & mid-level airflow trajectories under the ridge will keep the worst of the heat & humidity away from the area, but we're still expecting several days wit highs in the 90s & heat index values of 95 to 100 degrees. The heat impacts will be especially felt in the urban core of the Twin Cities metro where overnight lows are only expected to drop to 73-74 degrees nightly, meaning little cooling relief is expected overnight for those without at source of cooling at home. Status quo continues with the Heat Advisory across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin, while an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the Twin Cities metro. These heat headlines go through Tuesday night, but we'll have to evaluate whether they will need to be extended later in the week. Guidance generally shows temepratures cooling more into the low 90s after the heat peaks on Monday & Tuesday, which would place most areas under the thresholds for excessive heat criteria. Confidence on the heat forecast decreases as we get to Friday & over the weekend, with a wide spread in forecast high temperatures present among deterministic & AI guidance. Notable the ECMWF deterministic still is showing potential highs over 100 degrees this weekend (though it has been a warm outlier so far) while the ECMWF AI forecast system keeps highs "cooler" in the upper 80s to low 90s. The main takeaway from the heat forecast this week is the extended duration of days with potential excessive heat, instead of the magnitude of the heat on a given day. While we won't be setting any daily records with the heat this week, the multi-day duration of the event means everyone needs to be mindful of the proper heat precautions & ensure a place to cool down.

As one would expect with an upper level ridge of this magnitude parked directly over the region, little chance for rain is expected through the week as any systems riding along the periphery of the ridge should remain well off to our north across Canada & the northern Great Lakes. We could see some short-term enhancement to the heat wave develop by the weekend as the ground dries out under day after day of baking heat & is easier to warm up by a few degrees daily. Our next shot for any sort of appreciable rain looks to come later over the weekend when the ridge begins to weaken over the region & a number of upper level disturbances pass over the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Clear skies and SSW winds 5-15 kts through the period. Some gusts near 20 kts are possible at AXN, RWF, and STC Monday afternoon.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SW around 10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming S 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for Benton-Blue Earth- Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sherburne- Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for Anoka-Carver- Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington. WI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn- Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.