textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Excessive Heat Warning in effect for the Twin Cities metro today through Tuesday evening. A Heat Advisory has been extended through Tuesday evening.

- Daily high temperatures in the 90s along with max heat index values near 100 degrees today through at least Tuesday.

- Little chance for precipitation this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Definitely feels warm and muggy out there early this morning. The 3 AM temperature here at NWS Twin Cities read 73 degrees which wont fall much lower than that for the next couple of days. This is the case for much of central and southern MN, and western WI. Had to nudge our current overnight lows up a couple degrees given our very warm surface conditions. The forecast remains bleak in terms of cooler and comfortable weather this week. Upper-level ridging today will continue to deepen and push farther northeastward into the northern plains. By Monday and Tuesday an anomalous 600 dm upper- level high becomes maximized across southern MN. The ridging pattern will then become elongated over much of the CONUS which then traps hot and dry conditions across our neck of the woods. Ultimately, today is the start of a multi-day heatwave.

Highs today and tomorrow are forecast to reach the low to mid-90s and then perhaps a bit warmer on Tuesday as the heat peaks. Surface temperatures alone are not expected to reach 100 degrees but when one combines the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (in the mid-80s), surface temps, and dew points results in heat index values to reach near 100 degrees. Unfortunately, not much relief is expected the next few nights as warm lows are forecast to only fall to the mid- 70s. Current NBM guidance felt more optimistic in terms with overnight lows to be a bit cooler however combining EPS and GEFS solutions ended up trending lows into the low to mid-70s. Therefore, it was decided to upgrade our current Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning for the Twin Cities metro (Anoka, Ramsey, Washington, Dakota, Hennepin, Scott, and Carver) counties through Tuesday evening. The existing Heat Advisory was also extending through Tuesday evening while expanding one row of counties south that now includes Watonwan, Blue Earth, Le Sueur, Rice, and Goodhue.

As for precipitation, the forecast remains dry. The strong previously mentioned ridging pattern wont let up its grasp until the second half of this week. A mid-level wave looks to try produce some rain/storms for NE'rn MN and Wisconsin but even then ensemble membership is not getting too excited about widespread rainfall. Thus, agree with NBM advertising 30-40% PoPs east of the I-35 corridor Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Solid VFR conditions with clear skies expected through this TAF period. South winds at initialization will become more southwest later this morning with a few gusts possible during the afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SW around 10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming S 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Goodhue- Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Rice-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan- Wright-Yellow Medicine. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott- Washington. WI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk- St. Croix.