textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Thursday afternoon/evening...Conditional threat of storms, favored for western Minnesota again. Heavy rain, large hail, and strong winds are primary hazards.

- Friday...Storms may linger across the region, though confidence on overall coverage is low and depends on how Thursday plays out.

- We stay dry on Saturday, but an active and very warm pattern is favored for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

It rained! Quite a bit too across western Minnesota... radar estimates suggest upwards of 2 to 3" could have fallen across western Yellow Medicine County. A healthy 0.5 to 1.5" fell across the majority of western Minnesota as very efficient rain showers developed behind our main line of storms. As the LLJ weakens this morning, we anticipate the downward trend in showers and storms to persist. CAMs continue to show it quickly dissipating as it outruns the instability axis, though confidence is low on how fast it will dissipate as we are continuing to see new towers bubbling along the outflow as of 3AM. As these storms fizzle out, some additional showers could develop shortly after sunrise, otherwise we expect to have a lull in the rain until later this afternoon.

Today's setup for storms remains Marginal for severe weather, and conditional for storm coverage depending on how extensive our cloud clearing is during the first half of the day. In other words, this is a scenario where you don't need to cancel any plans for the day, but it is a good idea to stay weather aware and have a plan in place if any storms develop. The primary hazards will be large hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall rates. We already saw the atmosphere play its hand with last night's efficient rain production, and PWATs will only be increasing (mean values around 1") as low level moisture surges north/east. Not unrelated, we will actually be able to build worthwhile instability with widespread Tds in the low to mid 60s. The most likely area to see enough clearing this morning will be across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota, which is what we see across hi-res guidance. Any strong storms that develop will be tied to the boundary that stalls over southern Minnesota, moving east along the shear vector. That activity will peak during the late afternoon and evening, but may linger into the night once again impacting the environment for storms Friday.

Latest trends favor more clearing on Friday, allowing for broader development of storms in the afternoon. The overall environment should be the best of the 3 days for severe storms, with 35-45kts bulk shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. The thing to watch though is the location of the boundary by Friday afternoon, which favors Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. The new SPC day2 convective outlook has cut off much of the northwest portion of the Marginal Risk, supporting this idea.

Saturday will offer a break from the active weather as surface high pressure extends down into the Upper Midwest from Canada.

It may be a short break though, as long range deterministic and ensemble guidance favors a southwest flow pattern that would support an extended period of heat and frequent rain chances. The latest NBM pinpoints mid to late next week with widespread low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. This will depend on how persistent the upper level ridging holds over the central CONUS, but bears watching as it would be our first real taste of summer heat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Swath of showers/thunderstorms over western-central MN continues to shift east at initialization, likely reaching southern- eastern MN during the early morning hours thru daybreak before dissipating later Thursday morning. Thunderstorm coverage/intensity within the precipitation band will gradually diminish, leaving rain as the main issue which may produce flight category degradations. Mainly MVFR conditions expected with the precip although heavier downpours may reduce conditions briefly to IFR. Mid-level ceilings will then prevail through the day today. Then the forecast becomes very difficult to determine where/when any additional SHRA/TSRA will develop from this afternoon onward into Thursday evening-Friday morning. Because of the high degree of uncertainty and poor CAM agreement, instead of plastering the TAFs with lengthy PROB30s, have opted to omit precip mention at this point until some semblance of better agreement materializes.

KMSP...Best timing of precip in this TAF duration looks to be 09z-13z with the current swath of precipitation. This area may even diminish atop the Twin Cities metro as it moves across, followed by VFR conditions with mid-level clouds throughout the day. There are additional low chances for precipitation this afternoon through tonight but poor model agreement leads to high degree of uncertainty in the timing/placement of additional rounds of precipitation. Therefore, will remain conservative at this point and leave out mention of precipitation for later Thursday into early Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts becoming E. SUN...Mainly VFR. Slight chance TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE 10-15 kts. MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR-IFR possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.