textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend expected with highs in the 40s and 50s to near 60 possible.

- Drizzle is possible late tonight across southern Minnesota with a system passing to our south.

- Better chance for widespread rain arrives Friday with some snow potential Friday night and Saturday morning as colder air arrives.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Stratus is lifting north this afternoon and has reached roughly the I-94 corridor. Some breaks remain within the lower stratus deck, but a mid level deck over SD will continue east through tonight. Radar and occasional surface obs indicate light rain or drizzle across south central SD. This area of rain will continue east across far southern MN tonight. Surface temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s, so can't rule out some of it freezing on contact. Amounts will be quite light, however. In addition, with the marginal temperatures we are not currently anticipating anything more than perhaps a few slick spots on untreated surfaces late tonight and early Tuesday. The precip will move out to the east by dawn Tuesday and temperatures will warm quickly above freezing by mid morning.

Warm air advection will continue through Thursday. Highs will warm from the mid 40s to lower 50s Tuesday, to solidly 50s and a few low 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Another system will remain well south across the Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday night and Thursday, so tranquil weather is expected until Friday. A low pressure system will develop over eastern CO Thursday night. Strong moisture flux will develop showers and thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains Thursday night, with the LLJ/deeper moisture reaching the Upper Midwest Friday. Widespread rain is expected Friday, but may come in two rounds. The first should be in the morning in response to the strongest moisture transport and the 35-45 kt LLJ. The second may come with the main mid level disturbance/low pressure center Friday night. Over just the last day, models have begun to reduce their spread substantially with the low track. By early Saturday morning, model ensembles, deterministic, and AI guidance track the low across southeastern MN into central WI. There has also been a trend to develop precipitation post-frontal across eastern SD into MN and northern WI, where wetbulb zero heights are zero. This implies a transition to accumulating snow within a deformation band Friday night and Saturday morning across central and western MN into northwest WI. This trend has started only recently, but if it holds we'll start introducing more snow into the forecast during the next day or two. Too early to specify amounts with much confidence, but several inches are possible in these situations and it may be the main story later in the week.

Ridging will remain in place into early next week. A mild Pacific airmass will overspread the Upper Midwest again following the departure of Friday night's system. Another system with a stronger punch of colder air should develop early next week. That one still exhibits a lot of spread, but what is more certain is temperatures will return to near normal by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

MVFR cigs will slowly progress northeastward this evening. A disturbance will move across southern MN/northern IA tonight. RWF and MKT have the best chances at seeing a prevailing period of -FZDZ between 04 to 9z. For all other sites (except for AXN), The RAP, NAM, and GFS forecast soundings advertise the potential of IFR -FZDZ early tomorrow morning. The HRRR is the outlier where cigs remain in MVFR although tarmacs remain dry. Decided to introduce add'l prob30 groups given current confidence of DZ development. Nonetheless, cigs will remain in MVFR until late in the period. Southerly winds will decrease to around 5kts tonight then veer southwesterly by tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Maintained VFR cigs until midnight. As mentioned in the previous discussion, forecast guidance continues to hold mention of -DZ between midnight and 09z. Therefore have introduced a prob30 mention of IFR -DZ to reflect the current development potential. Cigs will be reluctant to move out of MVFR until likely next TAF period. Light southerly winds tonight will veer southwest around 5 kts tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR -RA. Wind SE 5-10kts, bcmg NE late.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.