textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather the next couple of days. Active weather returns Friday with a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms.

- Extended forecast features additional rain chances heading into early next week and slightly below average temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...The front is best seen with the current temperature gradient across the region, stretching from Fairmont up through the metro and into northwest WI. The majority of any rain this morning has stayed to our south and east, and cloud cover will become mostly scattered by midday. Breezy WNW winds will gust to around 25 to 30 mph today, otherwise it'll be a relatively quiet couple days of weather. There is some patchy fog this morning, which may become a bit more widespread tomorrow night as lows drop a good 5 to 10 degrees.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A broad Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather remains in place for Friday. The forecasted environment, characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s, veering low level winds, and modest midlevel lapse rates of ~7 C/km, will be capable of supporting organized convection. One main limiting factor may be the stronger flow aloft becoming increasingly displaced to the northwest of the surface front and pool of stronger instability to the south. This is why we may see bulk shear values of only 35 or so knots, rather than the 55+ kts behind the front. Storm mode favors initially broken clusters or potentially discrete cells that grow upscale into line segments. The main window also looks to be Friday evening, between 6pm - midnight, while the LLJ becomes most intense.

The other thing to note about Friday is the strong return flow associated with the low pressure system. During the day, very breezy southerly winds are expected with gusts up to around 35 mph in southwest MN and around 25 to 30 mph elsewhere.

The pressure gradient loosens through the day Saturday behind the front, and although winds turn out of the NW, it is not expected to be as breezy. The quiet weather likely will not last long though as another potent wave moves across the central US at the start of next week. Winds crank out of the south again, prompting strong moisture advection as a stalled boundary becomes overrun/modified by the developing low pressure system over the Dakotas. Just looking at the run-to-run change for various ensemble guidance, there is a clear upwards trend for rainfall potential. Another good indicator for confidence in an abnormal event is the the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index producing values near ~0.8 for the QPF. The scale caps out at 1, so a value of 0.8 shows confidence on the higher end of the spectrum for anomalously high QPF values compared to climate averages for mid September. For those familiar with the Shift of Tails, current values are maxing out around 1, indicating that there is not as high of a "boom" potential for this setup. Overall, there is a good signal for another solid rainfall event for parts of the Upper MS Valley early next week, and it will be a matter of watching the evolution of the shortwaves aloft this weekend to see where the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up.

Following the rain chances and frontal passages, cooler air from the northwest will advect in, likely prompting many their first craving for something pumpkin spice flavored. There is a bit of uncertainty with how much below average we drop, with the latest NBM nudging afternoon highs up a couple degrees from the previous run. Regardless, it looks like longer stints of fall- like temperatures stick around as anomalously high heights remain over the Aleutian Islands, funneling cooler airmasses into central Canada and the Great Lakes region. The 8-14 Day Outlook for temperatures highlights a 33-50% chance for below normal over Minnesota and Wisconsin.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Solid VFR conditions expected at all sites as a cold front presses east across the area. Only possible exception may be EAU which could have fog should winds diminish more than advertised. Models have kept winds around 5kts which, despite the prolonged pre-frontal moisture, may be enough to mitigate fog development. Will monitor trends and amend as needed. Otherwise, this TAF set is just a wind forecast. W to NW winds today, near 5kts thru sunrise then increasing thru the day, peaking in the 10-15G20kts area in the afternoon, then diminishing to under 10kts Wednesday evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Mainly VFR. SHRA/MVFR likely late. Wind S 15G25-30kts. SAT...VFR. Winds NW 8-12kts. SUN...Chance SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 8-12kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.