textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered snow showers are possible mainly over western WI late this afternoon through this evening due to a passing clipper system, with any potential accumulations under 1 inch. - Next chance for flurries or light snow doesn't come until the weekend.

- Colder than average temperatures will persist through the weekend followed by a warm-up for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows extensive high pressure covering the eastern half of the lower 48 as the potent cold front pushes into the Atlantic. Very few areas of low pressure are evident in the western CONUS, while a clipper low currently sits over east-central Manitoba province and its associated cold front sags southwest over the Northern Plains. Aloft, a longwave trough axis sits aligned over the Appalachians with a deep ridge along the windward side of the Rockies. A compact upper low sits near the aforementioned surface feature in southern Canada, which will help drag the surface low eastward tonight.

The upper low is expected to shift ESE along the northern fringes of the Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday morning, with the surface low just about taking a similar path underneath the upper low. Its associated cold front will then be dragged across MN/WI through this evening. Moisture in the lower levels is quite lacking, evident on satellite with clouds above 12 kft and dewpoint depressions around 10-15 degrees, even with the frigid airmass in place. Thus, as the front shifts east, any remotely-possible concentration of moisture sufficient enough to produce flurries or snow showers will be confined to western WI late this afternoon into this evening, with a trace to no more than an inch of snow possible.

Behind the passage of this system, the western ridge/eastern trough pattern over the Lower 48 will only become more amplified but generally remain in place, particularly due to the quasi-stationary Hudson Bay upper low remaining in place through midweek. The Hudson Low will shift south toward New England and try to expand west but will meet up with the very amplified western ridge during the latter half of the week. Thus, little day-to-day change in the upper level pattern is expected, with the flow of cold air from the Arctic into our region expected to remain generally uninterrupted. This will result in a quiet-but-cold pattern for the Upper Midwest for the Tuesday-Friday timeframe: clear to partly cloudy conditions, highs in the single digits above zero and lows in the single digits to teens below zero. Although no wind chills are expected to reach headline criteria (-25 or lower), the frigid air is still enough to take precautions if going to be outside for any prolonged period of time.

By the weekend, the western ridge breaks away from the west coast and moves into the central CONUS, allowing for a break from the persistent frigid air with temperatures starting to rise closer to normal Saturday-Sunday then likely very close to if not above normal for early next week. This change in temperatures will be accompanied by weak disturbances moving across the region over the weekend, possibly producing scattered flurries or snow showers but nothing significant.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR to start with passing high clouds at all sites. Still looking for a quick-hitting clipper system to breeze across northern MN and northern WI late this afternoon through this evening. With plenty of low level dry air to be overcome, the only site which looks to have a legit possibility of receiving any flurries or -SHSN is EAU, and it's a diminishing chance at that, so have kept its mention going there but converted it to a PROB30 to better express the high uncertainty. All other sites look to remain dry (STC-MSP-RNH have an unmentionable but non- zero chance of flurries around 00z but impacts are expected to be negligible). Ceilings will then remain in place with and in the wake of the of the low pressure center, lasting for much of the evening and overnight hours. Not expecting MVFR ceilings by the time decks drop to around 030 prior to sunrise as coverage diminishes but a couple-few hours of MVFR ceilings cannot be entirely ruled out. Winds will remain breezy/gusty for much of this duration, gradually veering from SW at initialization to W by about sunset today to NW overnight through tomorrow.

KMSP...Have maintained a dry TAF but a couple hours of intermittent flurries either side of 00z tonight cannot be ruled out. If any precip does occur, it will be very light with a trace of very powdery snow, subject to being blown off paved surfaces due to the breezy winds. Mid-level ceilings are likely from this evening through the overnight hours, with partial clearing prior to daybreak which should prevent MVFR ceilings from being realized.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.