textproduct: Twin Cities

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A mixed bag of wintry precipitation continues to make its way east into Minnesota this afternoon. Radar imagery shows the line of winter weather extending from Little Falls down through the TC Metro to near Red Wing. Latest mesoscale analysis showing that 850-700mb forcing is lagging a bit still near MN/Dakotas border, however it is still expected that this region of mid- level forcing will make its way east over the next several hours and produce heavy snowfall rates in excess of 1"/hr along and north of the I-94 corridor. Using the latest trends in forecast guidance, another nudge south was made to snowfall amounts leaving areas mainly along the I-94 corridor including the TC metro in the 2-4 inch range whereas areas north and east of the I-94 corridor could see up to 5-7 inches.

Farther to the southwest of the main snowfall region is the warm sector of this system which is located over western and southern MN. Concerns for a short 2 to 4hr period continue for a region of freezing rain. Warm advection this afternoon will raise temperatures into the mid 30s especially south of the MN River Valley and along the Buffalo Ridge which aligns with freezing rain is already being reported in those areas. Given where confidence was strongest for warm advection reach, adjusted forecast mentions of freezing precip east towards a line that extends west from Grant County in western MN down through Filmore County in southeastern Minnesota. The main precip shield clears southern Minnesota this evening, which then provides a short lull of mainly drizzle or freezing drizzle and then transitions to all snow overnight. Overall ice accumulations of a light glaze can be expected.

the next "segment" of this system that follows quickly in tow of our snow/freezing rain mentions is the increased wind speeds across the area. As of now, winds along and north of the I-94 corridor will be breezy with 30-35mph wind gusts however in areas south and west of the MN River Valley, are expected to reach 50 to 55 mph overnight. These winds, combined with falling snow will lead to rapid reductions in visibility, thus went with a strongly worded Winter Weather Advisory for southwestern Minnesota starting tonight until Wednesday morning. Regardless, gusty winds, blowing snow, and recently falling freezing precipitation will make for difficult travel conditions this evening through tonight. So try to avoid being out on the roads if possible or allow for extra travel time.

Most snowfall is expected to end Wednesday around sunrise, perhaps a band or two of deformation snow may develop on the back side the departing low mid-Wednesday morning however additional accumulation from that episode of snow would amount to less than a half-inch. Gusty winds will also weaken as our previous low distances itself away from the northern plains. Forecast highs Wednesday into the lower 20s Wednesday and then the teens on Thursday. Another system does encroach on the northern plains Thursday into Friday however this one looking much less impressive than today's system. Luckily, the p-type for this event favors all snow with accumulations up to an inch or two across southern Minnesota.

As we enter the weekend, the forecast turns cold. Forecast highs Saturday and Sunday will range a degree or two above or below zero with wind chills ranging well below zero. Cold weather advisory headlines may potentially be needed as wind chills reach -25 to -30 below zero Saturday Night. As we enter next week, the cold blast looks to be short lived as h850 5-Day Temp Anomalies jump right back up to 10-15 degrees above normal hinting that a potential winter warm-up could be on the horizon by that time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Precipitation shield continues to slide eastward with the back edge at initialization now through AXN-STC-RWF. Snow will continue at MSP for a few hours, diminishing quickly, while continuing at an IFR clip at the WI sites into late evening. A rain/snow mix looks to continue at MKT for the next couple hours, then the back edge will be through that site.

There then looks to be a bit of a break, roughly 3-5 hours, then the next brief round of light snow (currently near Fargo/Grand Forks) makes its way southeast to central-southern MN. At the time that arrives back into central-southern MN, it will be all -SN but not expecting long-duration degraded visibilities. As that snow diminishes down, the winds will be NW and increase appreciably in speed. Some BLSN issues may develop in western- central MN during the overnight hours through daybreak, then conditions gradually improve during the day tomorrow. There is a small chance of weak wrap-around flurries or snow showers but nothing significant. Ceilings will remain around IFR, potentially low-range MVFR, through the overnight hours into daybreak, then slowly rise through the MVFR range by Wednesday evening.

KMSP...Will look for a sharp cutoff in solid snowfall by around 02z then some lingering snow showers to continue until around 08z or so with dry conditions expected thereafter. There is a small chance of some snow showers mid-to-late morning Wednesday but this is expected to be of little consequence. Winds will be the main issue, snapping to a more northerly then northwest direction this evening and a sharp increase in speed. Not expecting BLSN issues but cannot rule it out.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Carver- Dakota-Douglas-Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker- Pope-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Wright. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Benton- Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne-Todd- Washington. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Faribault- Freeborn-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood- Renville-Sibley-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Pepin- Pierce.