textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain continues to progress east across the region today. The rain will settle to the south tonight with fog developing area wide overnight.

- Another period of dry weather will return Wednesday, with the only chance of rain in the foreseeable future coming Saturday.

- Temperatures will remain near normal through early October. Any frost chances appear limited to Friday night in the coldest locations of northern MN/WI.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1139 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A band of moderate to locally heavy rain is progressing eastward into eastern MN and northwest WI late this morning. Rainfall totals have been in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range, but some areas have had around 3/4 inch such as in Alexandria. The showers will eventually focus in western WI later this afternoon as the mid level trough swings through with just a few light showers lingering in MN into early evening. Mid and high level clouds will move out this evening. With the surface front remaining well to the north until later Wednesday, ample low level moisture will remain in place. Fog development tonight is expected, especially in areas where low level cloud depth becomes quite shallow. This is most probable across central and western MN which would be furthest removed from the trough axis, and the moisture transport ribbon from the southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley. Some of the fog may become dense.

A warm and humid airmass will be in place Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front later in the day. 925 mb temps will range from +18C to +21C, so highs in the mid to upper 70s are likely with an 80 not being ruled out in a few places. Early morning fog should burn off by mid to late morning. Dry air aloft and the shallow moist layer at the surface will be able to keep the fog from transitioning to low stratus that is more difficult to scatter out. Increased temperatures closer to the NBM 75th percentile.

A quiet zonal flow pattern will dominate the first week of October. This will keep temperatures mild and precip chances to a minimum. Surface high pressure building in Friday may allow for one of the cooler nights of the week Friday night and some patchy frost formation is possible over northern MN/WI. Quick on the heels of the departure of the surface high will be a somewhat vigorous short wave Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing our only chance of showers in the extended period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

RA continues to move from west to east across all MN sites this afternoon. RNH and EAU can expect rain to arrive within the next hour or so. Southwesterly winds between 10-12kts will feature occasional gusts near 20kts this afternoon before weakening this evening. Once the rain and cloud cover begin to scatter out overnight, its expected that IFR/LIFR FG will develop late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Thus, have introduced tempo groups for FG at all sites around sunrise. Vsby and cigs wont return back into MVFR until around 15-16z timeframe Wednesday.

KMSP...Light to moderate rain will continue over the field for at least the next two hours or so and then transitioning more into scattered SHRA after 21z timeframe. MVFR/IFR cigs expected to take hold by mid-afternoon and then remain mainly in IFR category through at least the early morning hours. Did introduce a TEMPO for FG around sunrise tomorrow. Conditions will improve back into MVFR around 16z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts. SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR SHRA. S bcmg SW Winds 5-10kts

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.