textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A stretch of cooler and drier weather arrives Tuesday through early next weekend. Most mornings this week will see lows near freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

After a good soaking rain from the 26th into the 27th, we now slip into a cool and drier pattern through the first week of May. The wave that brought us all the rain on Monday is now moving across Lake Superior. Today, this wave will get absorbed by an h5 low over Manitoba. For the rest of this week, this sprawling Canadian h5 low will drive across the northern Great Lakes from northwest Ontario to Quebec. It will stall out over Quebec this weekend, then start to retrograde back west toward northwest Ontario and northern MN early next week. This evolution of the large scale pattern will result in the southern jet becoming dominate over the next 7+ days, with the primary storm track remaining to our south. Our position to the south or west of the h5 low will place us in an area of predominately subsiding northwest flow. This will keep temperatures seasonably cool for the foreseeable future. In fact, the latest run of the EPS would favor MSP not seeing a high of 70 again through the first 10 days of May. The main issue with these temperatures will come with the overnight lows as they fall into the 30s, with some sub freezing lows likely in there as well. Looking at climatology, from the Twin Cities and Eau Claire on south, the median date for our last spring freeze comes up here in the last week of April. Up across central MN and northwest WI, the median date for the last Spring freeze comes out in the first or even second week of May. Unfortunately, our green up for southern MN into western WI is running a good 2 weeks ahead of schedule, which means we will have to deal with frost/freeze hazards as this early start to the growing season meets a typical cool down for the end of April.

For precipitation chances, they are low, but not non-existent. The first chance for rain looks to come in the form of some scattered diurnal showers on Wednesday. It looks fairly quiet for Thursday through Saturday, but as the upper wave begins to retrograde back west across Canada this weekend, we'll see that scattered shower threat return for Sunday into early next week. At this point, the strongest wave looks to swing through here on Monday, but it will be moisture starved, so it won't be a big precipitation producer. Although the end of April into early May often features the awakening of our severe weather season, our convective warning polygons look to collect dust through at least the first 10 days of May.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites throughout this duration. Upper level cirrus has been making steady inroads into the Upper Midwest the past couple hours and will continue to do so through the remainder of the day today. Upper level ceilings look likely by about sunset with SCT-BKN coverage in the 080-120 height range tonight through tomorrow. Breezy/gusty NW winds will continue through sunset then gradually diminish to light/variable overnight then pick up again from the NW after sunset to near 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU-SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SUN...MVFR ceilings psbl. Slgt chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.