textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler this weekend with frost/freeze chances Sunday and Monday mornings before warming next week.

- After this morning's rain the next chance for rain arrives late Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Rain will continue to slowly advance across the Upper Midwest this morning driven by broad ascent along a jet streak and frontal passage. The regions with rainfall have been seeing a notable increase in dew points into the 40s. This is significant versus the values down near 30 in southern Minnesota. This gap in dew point is part of why QPF values drop off quickly to the south as this drier air will limit rain chances. The other impact of these dew points will be for fire weather this afternoon and evening. Higher dew points and rainfall will help to reduce fire weather risk, keeping the risk lower than it was yesterday. However clearing skies behind the frontal passage will allow for ample mixing again today and the sun will also allow for dropping dew points. This mean another gusty and dry day is expected today. Therefore yet another bad day for burning. The other side of the frontal passage will be a period of cold air advection. This will bring temperatures down Saturday night through Monday morning. Both mornings will see frost and freeze potential with most ensemble guidance and therefore the NBM favoring Monday morning for the more widespread freeze chance. With the main area of high pressure moving overhead on Sunday night into Monday morning the clear skies will favor radiational cooling. Morning temperatures will be more typical of early March than early May.

Early in the week a shortwave trough will move from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes. This will provide a broad source of lift for our next, more widespread, rain chance late Monday into Tuesday. There is a high chance for rain with this system with >98% of global ensemble members having measurable QPF north of I-94 and east of I-35. To the west of this region starts to drop but stays >75% of membership with QPF. Where there remains spread though is in the amount of QPF, as probs drop by roughly half for 0.1" of QPF. There could be some instability for thunderstorms, therefore locally higher QPF, but forecast soundings do not show much and it is rather elevated. After Tuesday, the next chance for rain arrives Thursday along a push of WAA. Not as strong of synoptic forcing as Tuesday's rain chance, so much lower probabilities in the ensembles. In additional to the rain chances this looks to be the start of a period of continued hotter air days with multiple days into the 80s possible late next week into the following weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Rain showers slowly tracking across central Minnesota into western Wisconsin overnight. Upstream these showers have remained VFR with a few drops into MVFR with heavier rain. Based on this upstream rain have opted to keep prevailing and PROB groups VFR, as the chances for MVFR do not appear high. Dry air near the surface will keep rain from reaching the surface until it saturates. This means there will be a lag between the clouds moving in and rain starting. This is also why rain chances decrease as we get into morning as the dry air starts to win out more. Winds will be light overnight and increase again tomorrow along the typical diurnal trend. Clear skies today should once again allow for ample mixing of higher winds to the surface.

KMSP...Rain still appears likely, but at VFR thresholds with little to no visibility drop and ceilings staying above 3000 ft.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.