textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- First round of light snow this afternoon and evening across portions of western and southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- The second round of light snow begins Wednesday mid-late morning. Additional accumulations of an inch or two.

- Gusty winds will lead to areas of blowing snow Wednesday afternoon & evening across portions of western & southern Minnesota.

- Increasing confidence for bitter cold Thursday night through Saturday. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for dangerously cold wind chills as low as 45 below zero possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Temperatures have warmed nicely after a cold start to the day. Current observations reveal most of area has warmed into the 10s above zero thanks to the combination of filtered sunshine and subtle low level warm air advection. The first of two rounds of light snow is beginning to move into western & southwestern MN this afternoon. It will continue to track to the southeast through the evening hours before tapering off overnight. Precipitation will struggle as it interacts with antecedent dry Arctic air will limit initial snowfall. Overall, today's system continued to track further south/west than previous forecasts, but locations in far western MN and along I-90 in southern MN should still see an inch or two of new snow by Wednesday morning. Snow rates & winds will be light so there isn't much concern for blowing snow or significantly reduced visibility this evening or overnight. Overnight lows will bottom out in the single digits above zero and wind chill values in the single digits below zero only. This is thanks to the weak WAA & mid-level cloud deck associated with the clipper system.

Round two of light snow is on tap for Wednesday. This wave has been trending slightly more impressive than previous forecast as it will not be limited by antecedent dry Arctic air like today's system. It will track along the MN River with the bulk of the snow south of I- 94 on Wednesday. Most locations end up with 0.05 to 0.10" of QPF and a 20 to 1 SLR should support a nice band of 1 to 2" across the region. Forecast soundings support a healthy DGZ with light winds in the DGZ to the surface level. This should help prop up SLRs on the higher side (18 to 20+ to 1). This system wraps up and the attention turns the bitter cold Thursday night through the weekend.

Temperatures plummet Thursday behind the second round of snow as some of the most impressive Arctic air I've seen in the past several years flows south into the Upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures will crash to -30 to -35C by Friday morning. This sets the stage for a prolonged period of bitterly cold temperatures & wind chill temperatures Thursday night through Saturday morning. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for that period for the entire forecast area. Wind chill values as low as -45 to -50 appear possible Friday morning. Air temperatures will struggle to warm out of the -10s on Friday with Wind Chills at or below -30. The ECMWF mean MSLP climo data pushes the mean toward the max of climatology - an impressive feat to accomplish - which comes during our coldest climatological temperatures of the year will lead to dangerous cold. Temperatures do rebound Sunday into early next week but the focus will be on what comes first Friday & Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Light snow continues overnight across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin but visibilities are mostly 6SM or higher, so no impacts are expected outside of some slick surfaces.

Tricky ceilings forecast overnight as guidance remains widely spread in ceilings scattering out/reforming through the night, as well as at what levels. Trends over the last few hours have been towards higher ceilings, with most sites expected to see at least a few hours of VFR overnight into tomorrow morning. Ceilings eventually do dive back to MVFR tomorrow morning as the next round of snow begins.

A few hours of light snow is expected area-wide tomorrow morning through afternoon, with gusty northwest winds developing as the snow ends from west to east through the afternoon. Visibility will drop to IFR during the snow, with periods of LIFR likely at times as increasing winds lead to blowing snow. AFter the snow ends during the afternoon, reduced visibility from blowing snow is likely into the evening across western & southern Minnesota, as gusts increase to up to 30 kts.

KMSP...The second round of snow looks to come in maybe an hour or two faster, so 10-11 AM is now our best idea for the onset of IFR snow.. Periods of visibility below 1SM are also possible depending on how strong winds become during the snow. The snow wraps up mid- afternoon, with northwest wind gusts of 20-25 kts developing continuing into the evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind SSW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue- Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur- Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for Brown-Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Stevens-Swift- Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce- Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.