textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening along a passing cold front. A few severe thunderstorms could produce large hail and gusty winds.

- Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather through the weekend into next week.

THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK

Thereafter, surface high pressure will settle in out of Canada under northwesterly flow aloft. This has quiet and pleasant weather conditions written all over it. That's what we can expect heading into the Friday and Saturday timeframe. Afternoon dew points in the middle to upper 50s and high temperatures around 80 degrees will lead to a great start to the weekend. On Sunday, another piece of energy will eject out of the Northern Rockies towards the Midwest. Model guidance continues to show this system and the associated moisture moving east-southeast across SD, IA, and southern MN on Sunday. That said, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across southwestern and southern MN Sunday afternoon and evening.

By early next week, global deterministic models and their associated ensemble suites show a stronger and deeper upper level system diving southeast out of Canada and towards the Great Lakes Region. With there still being a degree of uncertainty within run-to-run model guidance, the finer details will need to be ironed out in the coming days. That said, low-end chances of showers and storms return to the forecast during the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the overnight and morning hours. The next upper level piece of energy will dive southeast out of NE ND and into NW MN through the overnight and early morning hours. This feature will promote ISO to SCT -SHRA across northern MN. We will continue with PROB30 at KAXN for -SHRA by 11z and 13z for KSTC. By Thursday afternoon, a cold front will drop south-southeast across MN. ISO TSRA will be possible along the advancing front during the late afternoon and evening hours. There still remains a degree of uncertainty within CAMs regarding timing and placement. That said, kept precip and TS mention out of TAFs. By 12z and 18z TAF issuance, we should have a better grasp and better confidence regarding TS chances for terminals.

KMSP...There still remains a degree of uncertainty with high res guidance regarding tomorrow afternoons TS potential. At this moment, probabilities and confidence remain low, so no mention in this TAF issuance. That said, FROPA will still happen between 23z to 3z, which is when convection could occur. Given this uncertainty, continued to maintain a dry TAF for MSP. By 12z and 18z TAF issuance, we should have a better grasp and better confidence regarding TS chances, timing, and placement.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.