textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- The prolonged heat wave continues this weekend. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been posted through Sunday evening. The hottest day will be Sunday when heat indices will reach 100 to 110.

- Less humid air arrives Monday, but highs will remain in the mid 80s to low 90s next week.

- Low confidence persists on convective development through Sunday night due to capping and scattered/disorganized nature of storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

EXTREME HEAT...The main axis of the heat ridge will remain over the Rockies through the weekend into early next week. However, surface fronts will maintain the extensive warm sector across the WFO MPX coverage area, including elevated low-mid level moisture advection, through the weekend. This means not just the daytime hours with highs in the low-mid 90s today and into the mid-upper 90s Sunday but also overnight lows mainly in the low- mid 70s tonight and Sunday night. With dewpoints into the upper 60s to mid 70s (even upper 70s tomorrow), this will prolong dangerous heat conditions through Sunday night, hence the expansion of the Extreme Heat Warning from much of our MN area to the remainder of our area tonight into tomorrow. Sunday will be by far the hottest day with HI's for nearly our entire area reaching 105-110 and WBGT's climbing into the upper 80s for the vast majority of our area. The heat ridge will retreat westward for early next week while a weak frontal boundary drops south, which will allow dewpoints to drop off appreciably, back to the 60s to near 70 for the rest of the week while gradually fall back to the upper 80s to lower 90s. So, not to say it won't at all be warm/humid depending on location within our 51 counties, but it will not be nearly as hot/muggy as today through Sunday.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...Quite the tricky and low confidence forecast when it comes to the where/when of any convection which may develop over the WFO MPX coverage area. Quiet thus far today, not only over our area but also upstream over the eastern Dakotas. Starting to see some development over western SD in response to strong surface heating and modest to steep lapse rates and inherent instability. 12z RAOBs and model soundings still show plenty of mid-level capping with warm H85-H7 temperatures that seem to be diminished in pockets, similar to where there are spots of stronger surface heating than others. The idea is that storms will blossom over eastern SD and drift ESE into southwestern MN later this afternoon through this evening. However, only a few CAMs indicate such idea, and even fewer run-to-run today. Some CAMs indicate no convection at all. So this is a highly conditional setup for today due to the strong low-mid level capping (indicative per the continual low level stratus today) and the patchwork of integrating higher instability, plus with fairly unimpressive dynamics aloft.

Once past tonight's potential convection (and there is even the idea among a few CAMs of a sunrise-ish complex over eastern MN into western WI, so still plenty of uncertainty), then there looks to be a better organization Sunday afternoon-evening despite continued wide-ranging model solutions. More NW flow aloft may allow a few disturbances to rush through the area, especially within the higher temp/dewpoint regime leading to steep lapse rates and poorer capping with a weak frontal boundary dropping south. Still rather disorganized in nature, there may be a few clusters of storms late day into the evening with the main "target" area as far western into far southern MN.

MONDAY ONWARD...A more tranquil pattern looks to settle in starting on Monday with drier air and a slow drop of temperatures as the week progresses. Overall, highs will return to the mid 80s to lower 90s as a general range throughout the week while dewpoints fall back to the 60s to near 70 during the daytime hours. It is possible that the TC metro may need a Heat Advisory on Monday but otherwise the forecast does not seem to support any additional heat headlines beyond the weekend. More pronounced northwest flow aloft will prevail throughout the week with the occasional disturbance drifting through the Upper Midwest. No appreciable surface boundaries are expected for our region, which will limit any chances for precipitation due to the lack of forcing and lack of low level convergence features. The best chance after this weekend looks to come late Thursday through early Friday, mainly owing to a fairly well-defined shortwave trough aloft expected to move through the region. Nothing impressive nor any surface features, but a swath of deeper moisture accompanying the trough looks to produce scattered showers/thunderstorms for late Thu into Fri.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Low stratus has held strong this morning over much of eastern MN through western WI, owing to the high amounts of low-to-mid level moisture advected into the region and limited amounts of mixing to blend it out. Have been adjusting the TAFs to delay the clearing, including on the 25/18z set, and may need to continue to do so depending on satellite trends. Once this low stratus does clear out and allow conditions to return to VFR, such conditions are then expected to prevail through the rest of the TAF period in midday tomorrow. There is a low chance of pre-dawn ground fog at the WI sites but confidence not high enough to include at this point. Small chance for SHRA/TSRA in southwestern MN this evening but too much uncertainty to include anything at this point, so have maintained dry TAFs.

KMSP...Timing of the dissipation of the low stratus is the only issue. Thinking 20z at this point but will see if any adjustments need to be made to bring conditions back to VFR this afternoon. Chances for precipitation at MSP too low to include at this time, but main chances would be late Sunday afternoon thru Sunday evening, so the next sets of TAFs may start to advertise precip chances/timing.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. W 5-10 kts becoming NW at 10-15G25 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT Sunday for Benton-Chisago- Douglas-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison- Sherburne-Stearns-Todd. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Benton- Chisago-Douglas-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Sherburne-Stearns-Todd. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott- Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan- Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...Heat Advisory until 11 AM CDT Sunday for Pierce-Polk-St. Croix. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.