textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A few thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and tonight, primarily north of I-94. A few storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a tornado.

- Widespread rain arrives Monday, but forecast rain amounts have trended lower.

- Turning much cooler this weekend and next week with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Despite being a tad on the breezy side, its turning out to be a nice albeit warm September afternoon. Current temps range in the 80s and are forecast to reach the upper 80s across western MN this afternoon where warm advection is currently strongest. Wind gusts continue to peak between 30-40 mph along the Buffalo Ridge whereas most other sites report gusts between 20-30 mph this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease late tonight into early tomorrow once a cold front tracks through the northern plains later this evening. Latest water vapor imagery shows a deepening ridge extending north and east of the Great Lakes region while an elongated troughing pattern stretches from the northern plains over the PacNorthwest. Embedded within this troughing pattern is a low-level wave which will serve as our next feature of interest over the next 12-24 hours. Skies this afternoon our ahead of the wave will gradually increase from west for the remainder of the evening.

Current mesoanalysis features an h85 low located over central South Dakota. Ahead of this low, a strong 40-50kt LLJ is transporting warmer and moist air up into the northern plains. Additionally, a SW to NW oriented swath of mixed layer instability of ~1000 J/kg exists which has allowed for continued isolated convective pulses on radar. Luckily, enough inhibition is in place to keep any precip development isolated and brief. However, that will not be the case as head into later this afternoon and evening. The aforementioned h85 low will continue to track east into MN through the rest of today. As this occurs, low-level forcing becomes maximized while CINH erodes, and lapse rates deepen to 7.0 to 7.5 deg C/km. This environment will allow for better organized convection to initiate over west- central and northern MN. Since early this morning, the SPC has reduced the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) spatially to be confined more to central and northern Minnesota this evening. Forecast guidance continues to advertise much of the strongest convection mainly north of a line that extends from Morris to St. Cloud. Early in the event, forecast hodographs advertise sufficient effective- layer shear combined with low LCLs nearing 1km. Thus any supercells that manage to get their act together could be conducive enough to support a tornado or two and large hail. As the line continues east into central and eastern MN this evening, the line transitions into more a of damaging wind gust threat. By tonight, the wave driving these storms reaches western WI. Although forcing will not be as strong as previous hours, rain showers and sub-severe storms are expected to develop along the axis of residual instability. Total QPF will vary depending on where the strongest rainfall occurs this evening but areas north and west of a line from Mora down to Appleton could see a couple hundredths to a quarter of an inch of rain with higher localized amounts. Areas across western Wisconsin could see a hundredth or tenth of an inch.

Most of the weekend appears fairly tranquil. Winds will remain a tad breezy out of the NW on Saturday morning near 20kts but will decrease as surface high pressure becomes the dominant feature through the daylight hours. Skies during this time should remain mostly clear. By Saturday night, a narrow band of forcing will move across southern MN that is part of upper-level troughing over Hudson Bay area. Scattered rain showers could develop mostly across southern Minnesota during this time but the majority of Sunday features partly cloudy to mostly clear skies by the afternoon. Its isn't until Monday that we see the arrival of our next widespread rainfall chances. A stacked 998mb low will sweep across the International Border. Widespread rainfall will move from west to east throughout much of the day. Most precip looks in the form of rain and some embedded thunder however, areas along and south of the I-90 corridor could see a stronger storm or two Monday evening. QPF for this episode continue to trend downward. The NBM and EPS have favored widespread 1-2" rain totals but the more realistic solutions appear with the GEFS. Thus have shifted the 1-2" swath farther south and east in southern MN into western WI. Areas north of this region would more so observe a half inch to closer to an inch.

If you're a lover of "sweater weather" or enjoy a cup of hot apple cider then the temperature forecast will make you happy. Saturday begins our downward temp trend. Forecast highs will only warm into the low to mid-70s and then even cooler on Sunday in the upper 60s, with lows in the mid to upper 40s. But wait there's more! This cooler airmass should hang around through much of next week with highs mainly in the upper 60s and lows near 50.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Gusty southerly winds this afternoon and evening ahead of the cold frontal passage. There is also a non zero chance for some isolated warm advective thunderstorms. Coverage would be widely scattered, so this was no included in any TAF. The main chance for thunderstorms will be at AXN as the front moves through this evening into tonight. These storms could extend far enough south for impacts to STC to occur as well. Past that EAU could see something later on as well, but convective support will be weaker and TSRA confidence is as of now not high. As the front passes winds will shift from the south to the northwest and should hold there through the end of this TAF period.

KMSP...Continued strong southerly winds wind gusts up around 34 knots will continue this evening. Storm chances look to remain to the north ahead of the frontal passage. There is a small chance some storms could be near the terminal 03-06Z, but confidence is below PROB30 inclusion. As the winds shift with the frontal passage there will be a window with some crosswinds for the parallel runways. Thankfully this should occur around 07Z and after any rush periods. Winds will quickly become and stay northwest for the rest of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. MON...RA/MVFR expected, chance TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 15G25 kts becoming SW. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.