textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of wintry systems bring chances for rain and snow this morning, tonight into Wednesday, and Thursday into Friday.

- A more organized winter system may impact the region this weekend.

- Temperatures will run close to normal through Saturday then become much cooler for the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a fairly nondescript pattern with high pressure over central Canada nudging southward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with a quasi- stationary front stretching from northern California eastward across the Rockies into the mid-Mississippi River Valley on through the Great Lakes. Multiple centers of low pressure are identified along this highly elongated front. Aloft, generally zonal flow sits over the northern tier states from the Pacific to the Atlantic, with a weak broad trough on the windward side of the northern Rockies. Also, a potent cutoff upper low sites over Baja, with a high amount of moisture associated with it. The zonal flow is also allowing Pacific moisture a pathway all the way to the Great Lakes.

A very minute shortwave aloft has allowed an area of light snow to stride eastward across central MN early this morning. Obs have indicated visibilities briefly down to 1SM at times, so even despite a fairly obvious dry layer aloft on model initialized soundings, the precip intensity of the snow is overcoming that dry layer to reach the surface. Little in the way of accumulation is expected, and mainly confined to areas north of a line from Appleton MN to St Cloud MN to Rice Lake WI. This area of snow is expected to shift off to the east of the WFO MPX coverage area by daybreak, with only mid- to-upper level clouds remaining in place through the rest of the day. Highs will come in much closer to normal values today, ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s.

As the day progresses, the western weak trough will dig farther southward, meeting up with the SW CONUS low to make for a much deeper trough axis from north-to-south over the western CONUS. This will aid in several waves of surface low pressure developing along the aforementioned surface front, particularly over IA and southern WI. The improved surface convergence, development of the deeper trough and strong upper level jetting downstream of the Upper Midwest will make for another round of precipitation later today through tonight which will encompass much of our coverage area. Precip will start out as snow for the northern half of our area and rain for the southern half, with snow becoming the dominant p-type with time going into the evening hours. QPF remains in the 0.15- 0.25" range for much of the northern half of our coverage area with under 0.15" south. However, far eastern part of the coverage area will be in the best position for the development of the trough and the surface features along with highest QPF, thus most susceptible to snowfall accumulations nearing 3 inches tonight into Wednesday morning. Closer to the TC metro and across much of central- southern MN, around an inch of snowfall accumulation looks likely. The bulk of this snowfall will come overnight, shifting off to the east and diminishing after daybreak Wednesday.

A lull in the precipitation comes late Wednesday through Thursday morning as north-south oriented high pressure slides across the central CONUS. The next system arrives Thursday. This system takes more of a clipper-like formation and track, developing over the southern Canadian Rockies Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Dropping to nearly 990mb, this system will quickly shift eastward across the Dakotas and over MN/WI Thursday night into Friday morning. The origin and deeper nature of this system will allow it to drag an appreciable amount of Pacific moisture with it into the Upper Midwest, with more widespread coverage of snowfall for our coverage area. However, most of the precipitation of this system will come as rainfall before changing over to snow, with snowfall amounts limited to less than an inch for areas near and north of I- 94. Rusk County WI may again be the big winner with forecast amounts in the 1-2" range.

Going into the weekend, which has already drawn plenty of attention, is a broad longwave trough developing over central NOAM late Saturday through Sunday. This trough will aid in a Colorado or Panhandle Low development, dragging the low northeastward into the Great Lakes over the weekend. This puts our coverage area on the cold side of the system which is brings both Pacific and Gulf moisture well east and north into the Upper Midwest. Still a lot of questions as to the track of the low, the orientation and strength of the trough and moisture content/location. While this system looks to be the relative most poignant of the systems in this forecast period, models to continue to back away from the original high amounts of snowfall seen over the past couple days. Still cannot reliably say with any certainty what snowfall amounts will be but it bears watching to see how the models (including ensembles, AI and deterministic) play it out. The only certainty is that behind this weekend system, an appreciable surge of colder air will move into our region, bringing below normal temperatures for the mid-March period which could last until the calendar says it's spring.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A weak shortwave disturbance moving eastward over eastern MN will produce a few rounds of light snowfall north of the TAF sites, despite echoes showing up on KMPX radar. A significant dry layer aloft will need to be overcome for precip to be reported this morning, thus have left its mention out of this TAF set. Clouds will remain in place through the day, with more widespread precipitation expected to develop late this afternoon and increase in coverage through this evening into early morning Wednesday. This later round of precip looks to start out as intermittent rain or rain/snow mix before becoming more sustained light snow tonight into tomorrow with minor accumulations looking likely. Mid-to-upper level ceilings will develop this morning then steadily lower this afternoon, including to MVFR by this evening then continue to drop to IFR tonight into Wednesday morning as the precip sets in. Visibilities will also drop, ranging from MVFR to IFR depending on p-type and precip intensity.

KMSP...High clouds will increase in coverage through daybreak, resulting in ceilings throughout the day. Precip chances increase this evening for steady rain/snow to develop this evening, with more pronounced light snow this evening through much of the overnight hours with minor accumulations likely (around 1 inch). Ceilings will drop through the MVFR range this evening to IFR tonight with the sustained light snow. Winds will remain around 10 kts through this duration, with directions from the NE through this evening then N late tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR ceilings likely. Chc PM -RASN. Wind S 10-15G20 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SAT...MVFR ceilings likely. Chc day -RASN, likely night -SN. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NE.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for Rusk.