textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense wildfire smoke is creating hazardous air quality and reduced visibility for much of the coverage area, lasting into Friday morning.

- Dangerous heat expected to persist into Friday, despite a small respite for all areas outside of the Twin Cities metro for today. This is a long duration and cumulative threat due to highs in the low-mid 90s and heat indices from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.

- Isolated showers are possible tonight along and east of I-90. Higher likelihood for rain comes Sunday night into Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

For anyone in central to eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin this goes without saying, but widespread smoke has covered most of the area today. It is slowly beginning to recede, but remains thick across Wisconsin and northern/eastern Minnesota where visibilities of 1-3 miles continue to be observed. In western and southern Minnesota, conditions remain partly sunny with a scattered cu field and no smoke impacts. Air quality alerts remain in effect through Friday morning for much of the area. With several sensors across the region measuring air quality indices in excess of 500, a handful of records have been preliminarily broken across the Upper Midwest. Many locations experienced or are currently experiencing the Hazardous category, which is as bad as it gets. For more information on this, we recommend looking at the Pollution Control Agency's website: pca.state.mn.us as well as referencing the Air Quality Alert on our webpage.

Though the front that brought the smoke down has minimal upper level support, a few isolated showers are possible in eastern MN into western WI this evening. This would be similar to what developed late Wednesday afternoon. Nothing concerning or enough to appreciably clear out the hazardous wildfire smoke from the air, but still a small chance of rain. At time of writing, there has been a slow moving shower soaking Pepin county in WI over the last 30 minutes, and it is more of this type that we may see.

Pivoting from smoke, air quality, and precipitation, we must also address the continued heat. Today has remained relatively in-check given the smoke cover limiting heating abilities. Temperatures across the area are in the upper 80s to low 90s, with max heat indices in the mid 90s. This is expected to change again tomorrow as the smoke disperses in response to an area of low pressure developing in the Dakotas. This will lead to temperatures heating back up into the mid 90s as they were earlier in the week. The Extreme Heat Warning for the TC metro continues due to the prolonged urban heat island effects, the likelihood of lows remaining in the 70s (no recovery) and the lower threshold. A heat advisory may be warranted across the area on Friday, but given the uncertainty with the smoke forecast, it is too soon to make any decision on that. What can be said with more certainty is to expect another day of heat and humidity on Friday, regardless of what headlines are in place.

The ridge will finally break down over the weekend, allowing for a more organized frontal system to push through the region late Sunday into early Monday. This will be the best chance for fairly widespread precipitation across our coverage area. Chances have been upped to the Likely category with forecast QPF just under 0.25". After this system, precipitation will be lacking, but noticeably lower temperatures are expected. Highs drop to the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday through Monday, then fall to the lower 80s Tuesday through Thursday. In addition, overnight lows will drop to the upper 50s to mid 60s Monday night through Thursday night. So for those sick of the heat, the end is in sight!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Significant visibility reductions due to wildfire smoke continues to be the primary concern to open the 18z TAF period. Short term hi-res guidance displays improvements in the surface visibility scenario as a boundary lifts north this afternoon. Have extended smoke mention through late afternoon at STC/MSP/RNH & EAU. VFR conditions will return once the highest concentration of smoke flushes out of the picture.

A few showers or an isolated storm may bubble up across eastern MN/western WI this afternoon. Confidence in coverage and intensity is too low to include in the MSP/RNH TAFs, but a short term AMD may be needed based on observational trends.

KMSP...Visibility should improve during the first 6-hours of the 18z TAF period. Short term guidance depicts the potential for a few showers or a storm near the terminal from mid-afternoon through early evening. Confidence was too low to include a mention in the TAF, but will monitor trends through peak heating for a short term AMD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts. SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA PM. Wind S 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Chc -RA AM. Wind WNW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for Anoka-Carver- Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington. WI...None.