textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Tracking shower and thunderstorm chances Monday evening into Tuesday. A few strong to severe storms possible in western MN Monday evening.

- Temperatures near normal through the work week, warming up some next weekend. Next possible chance for seeing 90s for highs doesn't return until next weekend (currently less than 20% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Another pleasant summer day is unfolding, with the upper ridge axis centered from Colorado, northeast to near Winnipeg. The surface high is a bit east of the mid-level ridge, centered over WI, with a cold front slowly moving east across the Dakotas. This has a allowed a pressure gradient to slowly build through the day, with some southeast gusts up around 25 mph being observed out in western MN. This front will be the source of our next chance for rain, but it will remain well west of us through the day on Monday, with the weather Monday expected to be similar to today, just with an uptick in dewpoints with the southerly winds. The wave driving this front will be going along the international border, so forcing with the front will be strongest north of us. Late in the day on Monday, we should see some fairly robust convection develop in the Red River Valley up from Fargo up toward Grand Forks that will then track across northwest MN. There's less confidence in how widespread convection along the front will be south of Fargo, but scattered storms should develop across eastern SoDak late in the day. Currently, it doesn't look like we see any activity into western portions of the MPX area until after 10pm Monday evening. At that point, instability will be trending down, as will our threat for severe weather. A smattering of showers will continue along the front through Tuesday morning as it works across southern MN. However, with the main upper wave working across northwest Ontario, other than convergence along the boundary, we don't have much forcing for precipitation, which means for most of the MPX area, this front will only offer a few minor showers. Perhaps the biggest impact from the front will be the potential for surface based smoke in its wake from wild fires in Washington, Oregon, British Columbia. Observations this afternoon show reduced air quality behind the cold front in northeast Montana, though there's a lot of ground for that smoke to cover for it to get here, so this will be something to watch through the day on Monday.

For the rest of next week, it looks tranquil. The front that comes through Monday night will spark additional rounds of thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will be in Iowa when it does so. Instead, we get some very pleasant air for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs near 80 and dewpoints falling back into the 50s, with some 40s even possible into central MN.

By next weekend, the upper flow will have flattened out. This will allow warmer air to spread north, but could also see some frontal activity. There's lots of spread in models with the placement of any fronts next weekend. Right now, you can find anything from the fronts remaining north of us, with it being hot (90s possible) and dry, to it being stormy and unsettled next weekend. Given that spread, stuck with NBM at this point, which has highs about 5 degrees above normal, with some low precip chances that peek Saturday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Only thing happening this period is the front moving across the Dakotas. As it does so, we'll see increasing southeast and eventually south winds through this period, though we won't really start noticing the winds outside of AXN until Monday. Any cloud cover/precip potential with this front is not arriving until after 00z Tue.

KMSP...VFR with winds allowing for the use of the 12s this period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Chc am -TSRA. Wind W/NW 10-15kts. WED...VFR. Wind lgt & vrb. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.