textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures this weekend into next week.

- After a dry weekend, a more active pattern with rain chances returns next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This weekend... The cold front continues to slowly moves across Minnesota and Wisconsin today. It has already passed through much of the area, but some parts of southern Minnesota could still see some rain this morning into early afternoon. By this evening the front will be fully past the area. In the post frontal airmass we will see cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s (below normals in the upper 70s) and some gusty northwest winds. This airmass will remain over us on Sunday with highs once again below normal and around 70. The airmass will not just be cooler, but also drier. So in addition to no rain chances it will also bring RH values down to near 30. Recent rainfall has fire danger low across as both Minnesota and Wisconsin DNR report low fire danger. So that will limit fire weather concerns.

Next week... After a cool and dry weekend a more active period will arrive next week. We generally look to remain stuck in northwest flow, but the global deterministic models show that a few shortwaves within this flow appear likely next week. This will be the source of lift for our rain chances next week. Looking towards to global ensemble systems there are clusters around late Monday into early Tuesday, Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the end of the week (late Friday into the next weekend). In general still quite a bit of spread, but he best agreement among the systems is for the Wednesday event. This also matches up with the NBM as this is where PoPs are maximized. The models are picking up on this as a higher chance as this is when moisture looks better, with the possible failure mode for the other two chances being dry air. Thus the NBM setup of chance PoPs for the first and third, with likely for the mid week event seem reasonable. Being stuck in northwest flow also means that the cooler temperatures are likely to stick around. There could be some changes with a warming trend near the end of the next week based on ensemble trends.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Lingering VFR clouds over western WI are all that remain from the round of early morning showers. Those clouds will gradually clear this morning and will set the stage for a fairly quiet 12z TAF period. The main focus will be breezy northwesterly winds which are forecast to gust between 20-25kts later this morning through the afternoon. We could see diurnal Cu between 5-7k feet develop cross central MN, but confidence was only high enough to include a BKN cig at AXN & STC.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR/Chc MVFR -SHRA late. Wind NW at 10-20 kts. TUE...VFR/Chc MVFR -SHRA. Wind NW at 10-20 kts. WED...VFR/Chc MVFR -TSRA. Wind SE 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.