textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonable warmth continues into early this week before a cold front brings temperatures back to near normal Tuesday.

- The next chance for widespread precip arrives Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Extremely abnormal heat set records at 2 of our climate sites today (MSP and STC both with 90) and looks to stick around through at least Sunday. The temperature at MSP while this AFD is being written is currently 75. The normal high for this time of year is 59... Winds are still also quite breezy out of the south with a few areas seeing gusts reach 25-30 MPH. These winds will lessen progressing through Sunday as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. Though, gusts of 20-25 MPH are possible over the eastern half of the CWA. Highs will climb well into the 80s for most of the area and all 3 of our climate sites (MSP, STC, and EAU) have a high chance of setting daily records. Have blended in some NBM 90th percentile into the NBM to bump up highs today, resulting in MSP forecast to reach 87 and STC and EAU reaching 85. Clouds will also be increasing today as a cold front slowly nears from the west. This front should reach western MN tonight, causing lows to dip into the 50s. Farther east, lows will remain stuffy in the mid to upper 60s. Large uncertainty exists for Monday's temperatures as it remains a question of how far east the cold front progresses. Slower frontal movement will mean that our highs remain warm (at least upper 70s) for the southern and eastern halves of the CWA. But, a faster front will mean the quicker arrival of cooler air, keeping highs more in the 60s to mid 70s. Either way, it looks like there will be a strong northwest to southeast temperature gradient across our region Monday. It's just a matter of where it sets up.

Chances for rain will also increase Monday afternoon into the evening as synoptic lift increases over the frontal boundary. The northern halves of MN and WI currently are the most likely to see widespread rainfall. But, longer range CAMs do hint at more scattered to isolated activity reaching down into central MN and western WI. Significant rainfall isn't expected (perhaps up to a 0.25") but a few thunderstorms are possible given the non-zero CAPE. The front moves completely east of our region Monday night, cooling us down and drying us out into mid-week. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s while lows will largely be in the 40s.

Forecast models show our next chance of rain being associated with a trough that turns into a cutoff low over the Rockies during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. This feature is forecast to slowly move east into the Central Plains before eventually getting picked up by a trough from the northern jetstream. How quickly the cutoff low advances east and where it gets absorbed by the northern jetstream remains in question. As of now, the energy looks to pass through the Upper Midwest around Thursday, which would bring at least a decent chance of rain to much of our CWA. However, NBM's PoPs have trended slightly less, likely owing to model spread regarding the cutoff low's speed and timing/placement of phasing into the northern stream. We will continue to monitor these features as they could put a damper on the region. For Friday into next weekend, there is high confidence in dry weather while there is low confidence in how temperatures evolve. If the cutoff low and northern stream trough phase similar to the GFS and GEM, amplified troughing would develop over the Great Lakes. This would bring strong northerly flow and CAA into the Upper Midwest Friday through Sunday. We'll have to we see if our first real cold snap of this Fall occurs at the end of this week or we remain milder.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Southerly winds have diminished compared to the day, but will remain gusty into the morning. LLWS is expected to continue overnight clearing from west to east Sunday morning. Winds will begin to shift late in this TAF period as a front passes through. Clear sky VFR for much of the period before high cloud VFR moves in late.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind N 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.