textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers will increase in coverage from west to east through the morning and into the afternoon.

- Rainfall amounts of 0.50-0.70" are expected across much of western & central Minnesota. Generally less than 0.10-0.30" across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- A more widespread round of rain is likely with a frontal passage on Tuesday.

NEXT WEEK

On Monday, south/southwesterly flow will remain locked in across the region ahead of the next upper level shortwave trough. High temperatures will warm a few degrees from Sunday, around 70 degrees areawide. With anomalous moisture in place, the next upper level shortwave and associated surface front will promote scattered to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday. As of now, there's still a degree of uncertainty regarding how this system evolves. That said, it's to difficult, with not the best forecaster confidence to determine exact rainfall totals. But the one trend that is remaining fairly consistent is lesser rain totals as most of the upper level forcing and dynamics hone in across far northern MN and south into the IA/MO/NE/IL region. Looking at 00z deterministic models and their respected ensemble suites, guidance is painting greater than 60 percent chance(medium to high confidence) of 24 hour rainfall totals of greater than 0.10 inches areawide. Looking at the probability of 24 hour totals greater than 0.50 inches, guidance is painting at 10-40 percent chance(low to medium confidence).

The next chance for rain will be on Thursday. An upper level trough will move across the Desert Southwest before ejecting northeastward across the Plains and towards the Upper Midwest. There still remains uncertainty regarding this system, and how far north the associated deep and anomalous moisture advects. That said, 15-30 percent PoPs remain in the forecast grids, highlighting Thursday rain chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

The radar continues to fill in this morning with AXN/RWF/MKT/STC already seeing showers as of the start of the period, expected to begin a few hours after start for MSP and even later for RNH/EAU. Went with a mix of HRRR for CIGS/timing of -SHRA and RRFS for ending of -SHRA as it keeps light showers around a tad later which makes sense given a fairly saturated boundary layer and low CIGS. MVFR is likely as -SHRA arrives with periods of IFR expected, getting down to LIFR mainly for RWF/AXN with the heaviest -SHRA expected in western MN. Winds will favor 140-170 with speeds around 10kts and occasional gusts up to 20kts from 16-00z, with limited gusts after 00z. -SHRA will end from west to east through the period, with IFR/MVFR CIGS/visibility lingering after it ends.

KMSP...The radar is filling in to our west and south, however it make take an hour or two of radar returns before we see any -SHRA making it to ground level as we have some dry air to overcome first. Once -SHRA begins, we should see intermittent showers through at least 00z and perhaps even a few hours later as the RRFS suggests.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. WED...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S to SE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.