textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry through early Friday. A few showers are possible today across southeastern MN. Temperatures warm into the 70s or lower 80s Thursday.

- A very strong cold front will push east through the area on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are likely to develop on the front late Friday afternoon east of I-35.

- Much colder air for the weekend with a chance for snow showers Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas of fog have formed across western MN last evening. It is having a difficult time sustaining itself for long at any given location and appears to be shallow ground fog. A thicker bank of fog and stratus to the north is trying to work south into central MN, but is also not making much progress. High clouds from convection in Iowa are streaming northeast across eastern MN and WI. This should keep fog from becoming too dense or widespread there, although the stratus is making slightly better progress building south in WI. Any fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. A short wave will lift northeast across Iowa this afternoon. It will be the focus for more convection later today, although much of that will remain well to the southeast. There may be a few showers on the northern fringe of the system that can reach southern MN and western WI, but rainfall amounts will be negligible.

Southerly flow increases Thursday as a deep trough approaches from the Rockies. A nice bump up in temperatures is expected with low to possibly mid 80s across western MN and 70s across eastern MN and WI. Moisture will begin to advect back north, but the deepest moisture won't arrive until late Friday immediately ahead of a strong cold front. Much of the day will be strongly capped thanks to mid level lapse rates nearing 9 C/km and a relatively dry boundary layer. The cap will gradually erode as low level moisture increases mid to late afternoon. The front will spark scattered thunderstorms along it, likely along or east of I-35 by late afternoon. Initial storms may be splitting supercells given strong unidirectional shear profiles and the likelihood that some parts of the cap may remain. Not too long after initiation, additional activity is likely to form and congeal into a squall line. This evolution may take place southeast of the CWA depending on the timing of the front (which is a little more progressive than before) and when the CAP does break. Nonetheless, there is a risk for severe thunderstorms late Friday afternoon and early evening, mostly in WI. Highs should reach the 70s east of the front Friday afternoon, with temperatures plummeting 30+ degrees into the 30s and 40s by early evening. Moist cyclonic flow for late Friday night and Saturday still brings the potential for some snow showers, but models have trended decidedly drier in the snow department. Highs Saturday may remain in the 30s.

Cold temperatures will be short-lived with the trough modifying by Sunday and ridging potentially returning early next week. There remains spread in the guidance with how strong the push toward ridging will be and we may just maintain northwest flow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions expected for the rest of today. Fog is expected to redevelop again tonight, mainly over northwest Wisconsin. EAU can expect MVFR visibilities with occasional lowering to IFR. Fog will lift quickly throughout the morning and VFR will return for all terminals.

KMSP...VFR through the rest of the day. Fog is possible in the morning, but is forecast to remain to the north of MSP. Will continue to monitor. Winds remain light out of the east/northeast, becoming more southeast to southerly throughout Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. FRI...VFR early, then chc MVFR/TSRA in the afternoon. Wind SE 10-15 kts shifting NW 10-15G25kts. SAT...MVFR cigs. Chance IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.