textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Air Quality Alert for much of Minnesota through this evening.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into Monday.

- Tropical-like airmass settles in by Monday. This will lead to the potential for several rounds of thunderstorms through mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A rather pleasant June night with temperatures hanging onto the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region early this Sunday morning. It will be an uneventful start to the day with an uptick in high clouds and southerly winds after daybreak. Temperatures will climb back into the 80s by lunchtime and sfc dew points will begin to creep back into the mid 60s. An impressive surge of moisture will push northward into southern Minnesota. This is set in motion by a prominent mid-level trough that will move from the central Plains through the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. This will provide forcing to kick start precipitation this afternoon/evening through Monday morning. This set up should not produce much in the way of severe weather locally, but there is a signal for the potential of some locally heavy rainfall possible. There are a few different ways to visualize the moisture transport in model guidance: 1) Integrated vapor transport, which shows the best parameter space this evening into early Monday across the Upper MS Valley. 2) PWAT and PWAT percent of normal. We start the day with PWAT values in 0.8 to 1.1" that is right around where we'd expect to be based on normal climatological values. By 18z we see values begin to climb into the 1.5" to 1.75" range along I-90 and up to 2.0" across much of the region by 00Z this evening. Both of these suggest that the atmosphere will have plenty of moisture to work with. Furthermore, forecast soundings from hires guidance highlight a long and skinny CAPE profile that would support the potential for efficient rainmakers this evening into Monday. The forcing isn't great, but should be sufficient for at least some concern of heavy rain. The area of greatest concern for now is across southern and eastern MN into far western WI. These areas could see multiple rounds of showers (and thunderstorms) capable of repeated rounds of heavy rain. QPF is tricky but has trended higher over the last 24 hours as the hires models get a better handle of the expected coverage. Current QPF footprint is 0.50" to 1.0" from S MN to the Twin Cities. This footprint will have the potential for locally higher amounts of 2"+ possible. 0.25" to 0.5" likely over W WI and C MN. Lighter amounts are forecast across western MN as they miss much of the showers overnight.

Monday will gradually dry out by early afternoon. Highs remain in the 80s and the humidity will stick around through Wednesday. Attention will turn to Monday evening/night time frame as there is a pretty good signal across guidance (hires/global/AIFS) for potential MCS moving into the region. Tuesday and Wednesday is where the forecast turns more dynamic. Aloft, there is excellent model agreement showing potent ridging amplifying across the central and eastern CONUS. This will set up a broad area of impressive heat across the eastern half of CONUS. Locally, our temperature forecast continues to trend cooler given the likelihood of numerous rounds of convection between Monday night and Wednesday night. The potential for extreme heat doesn't look as favorable given the repeated rounds of storms should keep the warm front suppressed to the south of us. SPC day 3 SWO introduces a slight risk (2 of 5) over W MN and a marginal risk (1 of 5) over C & E MN. Initial supercells over the Dakotas will likely congeal into an MCS that'll track into MN Tuesday evening/night with wind and hail as the primary concerns. For Wednesday, the likelihood of remnant convection and convective debris Wednesday morning is high. This should keep our temperatures in the 80s rather than the 90s that the NBM is insisting on. Low level flow out of the south will be strong enough to replenish instability by Wednesday afternoon, setting the stage for another round of convection. Severe chances peak on Wednesday as the ridge shifts east and troughing will push an potent cold front through by late afternoon. SPC day 4 highlights the entire area for severe concern. Sfc dew points will push into the mid 70s with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s still likely. This will place a highly unstable atmosphere in place ahead of a potent cold front. The cold frontal passage should provide enough forcing to break any capping in place with any initial convection quickly growing upscale into MCSs. The finer details will need time to iron out but Wednesday should prove a busy day across the region. Colder & drier air arrive Thursday and will stick around into next weekend. Precipitation chances trend down with highs back in the 70s and lower 80s. This will be a much needed break after a rather active week ahead!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A few thunderstorms have developed across southern Minnesota early this afternoon. This activity is expected to remain widely scattered to isolated in nature, so have opted to go with the PROB30 mention. Overnight, showers will become more widespread with MVFR cigs/vis early Monday morning. Some IFR cigs are expected as well as additional thunder chances through tomorrow morning. Most sites should return to at least MVFR by the end of the period. Winds remain out of the southeast around 10kts.

KMSP...Given the early development of the storms to the south, have adjusted the PROB30 window to start a little earlier. Also felt that VCTS was justified due to the very scattered/isolated nature of these cells. Will continue to monitor trends and make adjustments to the TAF as needed. Overnight, another round of showers arrives with MVFR/IFR conditions. Kept the Monday morning PROB30 for thunder going from the previous forecast. Conditions improve by tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR, bcmg MVFR w/TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts. THU...VFR. Wind W 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.