textproduct: Twin Cities
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Typical fall temperatures continue, with slight rises and falls through the next 7 days.
- Rain chances tonight into Thursday, Friday night into Saturday, and Monday night into Tuesday. No severe weather or excessive rainfall threat.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
It is a beautiful fall day and there are no major changes to the 7-day forecast. A blocking high pressure will remain in place over the Great Lakes / eastern Canada region through early next week, keeping the greatest rain chances west and south generally.
There are three main windows to watch for rain this period, with the first two coming tonight into Thursday, and then Friday into Saturday. In both cases, a weak shortwave will help enhance the nocturnal LLJ, providing enough forcing for a broad area of showers to develop. There will be limited instability with dewpoints stuck in the 50s, so widespread storms and heavier rainfall is not expected. As the rain spreads from west to east Thursday, and southwest to northeast in the case of Saturday, drier air and broad subsidence associated with the high pressure will limit how far east the rain is able to travel.
The pattern will start to show signs of breaking down early next week as a more pronounced shortwave nudges the upper ridge eastward. Tied to the shortwave, a more robust low pressure system would develop at the surface, resulting in a brief warm- up Monday before winds shift out of the northwest and advect in cooler and drier air for the middle of the week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Clouds will increase and showers will develop across western MN overnight. The showers will struggle to advance east to I-35 by Thursday afternoon before diminishing. Cigs will lower in the afternoon to IFR/MVFR and deep low level moisture may allow for areas of drizzle into Thursday evening.
KMSP...Chance of showers arrives in the afternoon, but best chances will remain west. May see MVFR cigs by Thursday evening and perhaps some patchy drizzle.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SAT...Chc MVFR. -SHRA likely. Wind SE 10-20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None. WI...None.
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