textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of frost overnight, especially across western and central Minnesota.

- Seasonably cool & dry weather persists through mid-week.

- Shower & thunderstorm chances return Friday through the Memorial Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Current observations highlight spotty sprinkles/drizzle thanks to the lingering stratus deck. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 50s with northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. It will feel much closer to late March than late May. Skies will gradually break up this through the evening with clearing skies likely overnight as a surface high pressure moves in. Northwest winds will turn light and variable overnight. The combination of light winds and mostly clear skies should allow our temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s across much of western and central Minnesota. A Frost Advisory goes in effect tonight through early Wednesday morning given the likelihood of areas of frost across western and central MN. What about a Freeze Warning if my low temperature is 30? Sub- freezing temperatures are possible tonight, especially across central MN, but the residence time below freezing shouldn't be long enough to experience a proper freeze. This is why we went with a Frost Advisory versus a Freeze Warning. Temperatures should remain a few degrees warmer across E/S MN and W WI, helping prevent any meaningful frost formation. Temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 60s on Thursday as southeasterly winds set up in the return flow across the Upper Midwest.

Our attention then turns to the holiday weekend. Our next chance for any meaningful precipitation arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Precipitation is tied to a shortwave tracking along the US- CAN border. While there could be some embedded thunderstorms with this system, the general pattern doesn't appear favorable for meaningful severe weather chances. The remainder of Memorial Day weekend should be pleasant. Temperatures rebound into the 80s Sunday and Monday with limited precipitation chances. Guidance solutions remain varied with precipitation chances Sunday/Monday, but nothing that would imply a washout or even a disruption to outdoor plans. Warmer, Summer-like temperatures will stick around for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Most sites are sitting in MVFR conditions with ceiling heights generally around 1500-2500ft early this afternoon. We'll see cigs continue to rise for the second half of the day, reaching VFR during the late afternoon and early evening timeframe. At the same time, we expect to see the cloud deck begin to scatter out as a surface high spreads across the region. Some light sprinkles are possible with scattered showers today, but visibility impacts will be negligible. Winds will remain breezy through sunset, gusting to around 20 to 30 kts, before diminishing overnight. Winds will not be strong tomorrow (mostly around 5 kts), and will back out of the north and eventually southeast by tomorrow evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. SAT...Chance MVFR/-RA early. Wind SW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Benton- Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi- Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet- Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens- Swift-Todd-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...None.