textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer, closer to normal, temperatures through tomorrow with much hotter temperatures this weekend into next week.

- Limited opportunities for rain/storms, with the best chance on Sunday late afternoon into the evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

It's another beautiful July day as a broad surface high stretches across much of the Great Lakes region. Increasing southerly flow on its western periphery will support a gradual warming trend heading into the weekend. Highs are expected to peak on Saturday through Monday with widespread 90s likely each day. Heat impacts will be a concern, especially with dewpoint temperatures ranging between 65 to 75 degrees. This will result in afternoon heat indices approaching 100F each day. The heat continues into the week, though with the ridge expected to weaken and a passing shortwave or two in the flow aloft, we should see some relief from the heat. It may not be much, but it will feel better than nothing.

Our rain chances will remain limited over the next 7 days, though there is an increasing signal for at least some scattered storms Sunday PM. A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region as a subtle impulse in the flow spreads east from the Dakotas. For any storms that develop within this forcing, it will be a prime environment for severe weather given the increasing LLJ and several thousand J/kg of MUCAPE. There is some uncertainty with timing as well, but late afternoon into the evening would be favored as the EML deepens. A 15% risk for severe weather is centered over MN and WI for the Day 4 SWO.

It should be highlighted as well that there is a Day 2 Slight Risk across portions of northern MN and eastern ND. There are some indications that decaying storms could continue into central MN Friday evening, though instability quickly decreases the further south the storms travel which should limit their mobility.

Under this building ridge, northwesterly flow aloft may usher in periods of elevated smoke from wildfires across western North America. The impacts from this would be more if higher concentrations were expected to be at the surface, but it is worth noting since it could still be noticeable in the sky at the very least.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period with increasing low level clouds tomorrow morning. Winds generally remain out of the south, but will become breezy tomorrow afternoon, with gusts up to around 20 kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW to W 7-12 kts. SUN...VFR, with -TSRA possible late. Wind S 15G20 kts. MON...VFR, with -TSRA possible. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.