textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures persist through early next week, with highs in the 40s/50s through Tuesday before colder temperatures return mid-week.

- Saturday's high temperatures will have MSP, STC, and EAU all approaching 90+ year old records.

- Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with the next chance at widespread precipitation being Tuesday night/Wednesday next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

It's a quiet night across the Upper Midwest with temperatures a few degrees either side of 32F. A few locations have cooled into the mid to upper 20s, but scattered mid-high level clouds should limit how much cooling can take place. Patchy fog/freezing fog has developed around Douglas/Todd/Morrison counties - this should burn off rather quick after daybreak. A rather pleasant start elsewhere will lead to another beautiful mid-February day. High temperatures warm into the 40s and 50s accompanied by mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds. A northeast to southwest temperature gradient will remain in place through the weekend due to the existing snow cover. Our snow pack will quickly melt over the next day or two, allowing warmer temperatures further and further northeast as time goes on. Record high temperature remains possible on Valentines day here in the Twin Cities (50F). This is quite impressive given the early warmth but this is a "low hanging fruit" record set back in the 1880s. This warm & quiet weather pattern stretches into the new work week.

All good things must come to an end and this rings true as the weather pattern begins to change across the CONUS. A trough digs in across the western US and will nudge the ridging further downstream. This will cause our mid & upper level flow to shift from the southwest mid-week. Meanwhile, a potent upper level jetstreak will round the base of the trough Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature should should set off a more active weather pattern with multiple chances of precipitation the last two weeks of February. A potentially interesting Winter storm is progged to develop across the Rockies and move across the Plains and into Great Lakes by Thursday. Now there is where I'll take a step back and take a breath... significant model differences remain across guidance. THE GFS/GEFS/AIGFS end up on the warmer/north side while the ECMWF/EPS/AIFS are on the southern/colder side. The ECMWF & AIFS both illustrate a rather impactful snowfall event across central MN while the GFS/AIGFS are a good 50-100 miles further north across northern MN. Current NBM temperatures favor the warmer solution and thus rain across much of the forecast area Tues night/Wed. The ECMWF/AIFS solution is much cooler ahead of the precipitation - this allows for most of it to fall as snow vs rain.

The main takeaway is that an incoming wintry system is likely mid-week with rain & snow possible. Southwesterly flow aloft should continue through the following weekend, supporting an active storm track with multiple additional chances for storm systems to move across the central CONUS to end February. The recency bias of the previous few Winters have really implanted significant doubts of this potential favorable active weather pattern taking shape after this thaw... but it would be wise to keep the snow shovel handy just in case!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Little to no clouds and light winds through the period. Light winds that are sustained today will be westerly shifting to the southeast tomorrow. Main aviation impact will be fog formation. A clear sky tonight and melting snow during the day will provide for fog formation tonight as saturation occurs at the surface. This will dissipate in the morning as temperatures rise. Fog most likely at AXN, STC, and EAU. Mainly introduced MVFR BR at this time, but potential exists for denser IFR fog. This could be added if confidence in this greater impact rises for the 00Z TAFs.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind W 5 kts becoming S late. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts becoming NE. TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA late. Wind E 5-10 kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Record high temperatures for February 13th through 17th can be found in the table below. Period of records began: MPX (1996), MSP (1872), STC (1894), EAU (1893).

FRI SAT SUN MON TUE 2/13 2/14 2/15 2/16 2/17

MPX 47 (2017) 46 (2002) 45 (1999) 54 (2011) 62 (2017) MSP 51 (1890) 50 (1882) 63 (1921) 60 (1981) 63 (2017) STC 47 (2011) 52 (1921) 55 (1921) 53 (1981) 59 (2017) EAU 47 (1921) 49 (1934) 58 (1921) 58 (1931) 55 (1981)

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.