textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like warm through Thursday. Tuesday is forecast to be the warmest day with highs in the low 90s possible.

- Diurnal thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A warm and sunny Memorial day has played out across the region. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s and even a few 90s across far western MN this afternoon. Skies are mostly clear other than a few diurnal Cu across S MN and cirrus across C MN. It will remain a pleasant afternoon with no precipitation concerns until later this evening when isolated thunderstorms may begin to develop across southern MN. Hires guidance builds in 1500-2000+ J/Kg mlCAPE overhead that'll remain capped under rising heights until this evening. The greatest threat is SW MN and NW IA but there will be a need to keep an eye on any thunderstorm that is able to form given it's a favorable environment for damaging winds (inverted V soundings and modest at best shear.) Overall, confidence isn't too high for where they develop, which has led the PoP forecast to remain on the lower end (20-40s).

We'll see any storms dissipate by mid Tuesday morning and then temperatures will be off as they warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday afternoon. A weak cold front will begin to move through from the northeast during the second half of Tuesday. This will allow dewpoints to pool into the mid 60s and when combined with highs around 90 should provide enough diurnal destabilization to support isolated to scattered afternoon/evening convection Tuesday evening. Any storms will pose another threat of damaging winds under ample instability, but little to no shear. Updrafts will go up quickly and collapse just as quickly in a pulse thunderstorm environment. Any collapsing downdraft could produce damaging winds and once again will require us to keep a close eye on any storms Tuesday PM. This boundary will lead to diurnal convection Wednesday afternoon, but it'll be confined to the MN river valley and I-90 corridor as slightly cooler & drier air settles in across east- central MN and W WI.

Looking ahead to the end of the work week and into next weekend reveals a rather pleasant and benign forecast. The culprit will be the expansive Hudson Bay high that will act to supply us with drier/slightly cooler air via easterly low level flow. Aloft, an omega block will keep the upper air pattern from evolving much over the next week. Blocking patterns like this are historically slower to break down than what guidance may offer in the medium to long range time frame. There is a glimmer of hope we see southwest flow aloft set up as we get into second week of June. This would allow us to advect some moisture into the region and support better rain chances across the Upper Midwest.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Isolated thunderstorms have developed at TAF issuance time along the IA/MN border southwest of MKT. This activity should spread north overnight toward MKT and RWF and may persist through mid morning before dissipating. Additional showers and storms are likely to develop late in the day and this evening, but coverage, timing, and location are of low confidence so kept any mention of this round out of the TAFs for now. It may need to be added for the 12Z issuance if confidence increases.

KMSP...Showers and storms should remain south overnight. Additional TS may develop at any time later this afternoon and evening. While the current TAF is optimistic, once details become a bit clearer TS will likely be introduced in some form in a future update.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Chc aftn -TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.