textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms through this weekend across western Minnesota.

- Better chance for more widespread thunderstorms midweek.

- Above-normal temperatures continue through at least early June.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

We'll be locked into a string of similar days through the weekend as a stationary front splits the middle of Minnesota from north to south. Rounds of scattered showers & a few thunderstorms are expected across western Minnesota where the flow of moisture out of the southeastern United States will be most pronounced, Not expecting much rain out of any given wave of showers & thunderstorms, but some areas could see rainfall amounts near an inch by the end of the weekend. Elsewhere, it will be a fairly comfortable early summer weekend, albeit cloudy, as easterly winds keep dewpoints in the 50s & high temperatures remain persistently in the low to mid 80s.

We'll see the very pronounced ridge over the central part of the continent moderate somewhat midweek, as most deterministic & ensemble guidance depicts a shortwave trough generating over the Pacific NW & tracking along the US-Canada border. This wave will provide our best chance for more widespread showers & thunderstorms this week, with guidance generally zeroing i on the Wednesday afternoon-Thursday timeframe, although some spread in timing still exits. Beyond midweek, the ridging looks to build back again over central North America & become most pronounced next weekend.

Above-normal temepratures are expected to continue for the foreseeable future, as the general pattern of strong ridging over the central US & Canada shows no signs of breaking down through early June. Ensemble guidance generally depicts temperature anomalies of 5-10 degrees above normal, which means more of the same with high temperatures generally in the mid 80s &overnight lows in the 60s. We could see more of a chance for excessive heat as we approach next weekend & the ridging appears to peak over the Great Lakes, but actual temperatures will depend greatly on cloud cover & any possible precipitation in the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Another period with VFR conditions throughout as mid level cumulus partially dissipates overnight with SCT/BKN200 CIGS lingering. SCT060-080 returns after 15z, with winds increasing by the same time as mixing increases beyond 18z maintaining a general 120-150 direction. A few gusts to the low 20kts are possible after 21z lingering after the end of the period. The only -SHRA mention is for RWF as the bulk of potential showers tomorrow afternoon look to be in southwestern MN.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. TUE...VFR. wind SE 5kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.