textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Twp clippers will bring minor snow accumulations Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Cold start to the New Year, with sub-zero morning lows and highs in the single digits. Temperatures modify back into the 20s next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

After an eventful 36 hours, things are finally settling across the region as a surface high pressure moves in. With the first clear day in a while, satellite imagery shows the freshly fallen snow across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Amounts were generally within what was expected, with a heavier band of 7 to 9 inches from Mankato and NE to west central Wisconsin. Most areas in the MPX CWA saw a minimum of 3 to 4 inches, with higher amounts of 4 to 6 along the periphery of the deformation band. Wind gusts are beginning to lessen Monday afternoon, leaving cold temperatures as the most impactful weather hazard for this evening. Lows near zero tonight will be joined by wind chills 10 to 15 degrees below zero.

Tuesday, a clipper will track towards central Minnesota, favoring areas along and north of I-94 for minor snow accumulations beginning as early as 7AM. This area will also be the coolest, with highs around 25 to 30 degrees. The snow won't last all day, with PoPs dropping below mentionable by early to mid- afternoon. In all, a few hundredths of QPF are possible, equating to about a half inch snow. Locations south/west of I-94 are likely to miss this first clipper of the week, but will be positioned within a sector of WAA. This warmer air will allow temperatures to warm above freezing for some, with highs in the low to mid 30s in SW MN. The relative warmth won't last long, with another punch of cold air on the backside of the Tuesday clipper.

Northwest flow keeps the gears grinding on Wednesday, with a second clipper forecast for a similar time (morning to mid- afternoon) on Wednesday. Areas of impact will be closer to south central Minnesota (along and south of I-94). Slightly more QPF, roughly 0.04-0.06", is present with this system and we leaned on the CMC and GFS in conjunction with the NBM to reflect this. A wide band of 0.5 to 1.5" is not out of the question on Wednesday, with St. Cloud southeast to west Metro and Red Wing the current thinking on the center of that band. This clipper will warrant closer watching for the potential to overperform as a high PoP/low QPF event. PoPs are still hovering in the middle ground (40 to 60%) and more widespread than what will likely be the case, but that is expected to be refined as short- term guidance arrives. As will be the case with Tuesday's system, cold air will filter in behind the clipper on Wednesday as well. This means a chilly sub-zero start to 2026. We'll struggle to warm out of the single digits on Thursday and likely see some sub- zero temperatures Friday morning as well. Large scale ridging builds over the central CONUS heading into the first weekend of the new year, which will support mid-level warm advection and a return to temperatures in the 20s for highs.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 950 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

VFR conditions continue to start the period, with MVFR/IFR likely by mid-late morning for most terminals. Mid/high level clouds are beginning to overspread the region from the northwest ahead of our next system. Cigs will gradually lower throughout the period, with an area of light snow forming generally along and north of the I-94 corridor. This system has trended south in the latest guidance, further increasing confidence in snowfall occurring at AXN, STC, MSP, RNH, and EAU. Maintained a prob30 for MKT with uncertainty in just how far the steadier snowfall will push south. Amounts will be around an inch or less, and snowfall should only last 4-6 hours at any given terminal. Winds stay below 10 kts for the start of the period, shifting out of the southwest overnight and eventually increasing out of the northwest by tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...No major changes to the forecast. Best period for snowfall still looks to be around 14-18z. This window may shift an hour two, but we expect snow to only last for around 4 to 6 hours. MVFR cigs expected to linger through the rest of the period following the snow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR to MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. THU...MVFR. Wind S early, bcmg NW 15-20G30kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.