textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain showers expected today.

- A break from the heat & humidity over the next 7 days. Below normal temperatures are likely with high temperatures in the 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Much cooler & drier airmass will settle into the Upper Midwest today and is forecast to stick around well into next week. Today's forecast will be cooler with widespread rain showers across much of the forecast area. A quick moving sfc low will trek along the sfc cold frontal boundary that stretches from Iowa through Wisconsin into northern Michigan. That will place us on the cold side of the sfc low meaning we'll end up in the deformation region. This means we'll see light to moderate rain showers with most locations receiving precipitation at some point today. Rain will begin by mid- morning and wrap up mid-late afternoon. QPF amounts will vary with lighter amounts across western and central Minnesota - up to a quarter inch. Higher amounts over southern and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin - up to half an inch. Temperatures only warm into the mid 70s with cloud cover around much of the day. Behind this system, we'll see a transition to a much cooler and drier weather.

Aloft, the pattern shift will be driven by persistent troughing over the Hudson Bay in Canada and ridging over the West Coast. The ridge will slowly retrograde from the western US to the Gulf of Alaska region by the end of the period. This would be an ideal winter weather pattern for cold and snow if it was January, but in Summer it's going to usher in a rather pleasant stretch. Ensemble guidance continues to paint temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal through the middle of next week. That'll translate into high temperatures in the 70s and low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. This will be a nice break from the tropical-like airmass that has been in place the last week or so. If we look ahead to the end of the month guidance is hinting at the development of the monsoonal ridge over the SW CONUS. This should open the door to a warmer, more humid pattern for the last week of June.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions and a few high clouds will start the period, but skies will turn to broken from the west after sunrise today as our next system approaches. Rain will begin across western MN Thursday morning and spread east with cigs falling to MVFR Thursday afternoon (except for RWF and AXN). Much of this rain should be steady with visibilities of 4-6sm. Though, CAMs do hint of a chance of -TSRA at AXN in the afternoon so have added a PROB30 to account. Rain ends by evening and MN terminals will improve to VFR. But, WI terminals will likely remain MVFR as low clouds could be stubborn to clear. Light, variable winds overnight eventually become west-northwesterly and increase in speed Thursday afternoon. Gusts could reach 20 knots across MN. Winds slow and become westerly in the evening.

KMSP...Rain looks happen from 17-23z but rainfall rates shouldn't be heavy enough to be impactful. Cigs will fall to near 2500 feet near 20z but quickly improve to VFR by evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind W 15G30kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.