textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold weather continues through the weekend.

- Dry weather persists, along with warmer temperatures starting next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

The north wind is starting to have that "feels like snow" vibe to it today. Air temperatures across the region are generally sitting in the upper 30s to low 40s this afternoon, with the KMPX and KDLH radars only showing a few light returns of sprinkles or flurries. Our forecast pattern is centered around the progression of the high pressure over the central Plains. Northerly winds become light and variable as the center of the high shifts south over Minnesota and Wisconsin. This will support at least a couple more days of similar conditions to today, but with even cooler mornings thanks to clearing skies overnight. That said, the cold air advection cloud cover is still quite dense over western Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota. It can be difficult to fully erode stratus decks in these types of air masses, and forecast soundings suggest a shallow layer of saturated profiles will likely linger through much of the night in these spots. Expect temperatures to run a few degrees warmer in areas where cloud cover persists overnight.

There is greater confidence for clear skies Saturday morning as the high is almost directly over the Upper MS by this point. For most people, this will be the coldest morning, with widespread lows near 20 degrees. This is about 5-8 degrees below normal for lows in mid-November, and nearly 30 degrees below our average temperature for the month so far. It is not an extreme cold by any means, but it will certainly feel colder than what we've been spoiled with so far this fall.

The cold stretch is short-lived as the high pressure begins to move over the Ohio River Valley during the start of next week, placing us under southerly flow on the back side of the high. We expect afternoon highs to climb back into the 50s for most areas, and overnight lows to settle into the 40s. The combination of the warm lows and mild highs will have average temperatures running 15-20 degrees above normal for next week. Ensemble and deterministic guidance show overwhelmingly dry conditions over the next 7 days, with the best chance for any precipitation not coming until next Thursday as a shortwave trough kicks northeast out of the Rockies.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

MVFR stratus in the 2500-3000ft range remains prevalent over much of southern MN at initialization, thus necessitating starting all sites (except MSP) at MVFR. Ceilings will rise to low-range VFR levels late afternoon and remain there through midday tomorrow in far eastern MN into western WI while western-central MN clear out overnight into tomorrow. Northerly winds will prevail throughout this duration. Sustained speeds will continue around 10kts along with some gustiness through sunset, then settle down to the 5-10kts range tonight through tomorrow.

KMSP...Obs at MSP have risen into low-range VFR at initialization, and are expected to remain within the lower portion of VFR through tomorrow while at least BKN coverage will be maintained.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.