textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Band of freezing rain to develop late this afternoon and evening across western MN that will transition to snow overnight. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inches possible across west central MN.

- Another wintry system, producing a mixture of rain and snow, is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Other than a brief cool-down Saturday, temepratures will remain well above normal through Monday, with temperatures closer to normal for Tuesday through the rest of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

There are some impressive temperature gradients across the central CONUS today associated with the low over central KS. The warm front with the low extends up to about the I-80 corridor in Iowa. To the north, there's a northern stream cold front moving across western MN. We're seeing some 70s all the way up into southern Iowa within the warm sector, while behind the cold front, temperatures in the teens and 20s in the Dakotas have sent temperatures in western MN down into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Through tonight, the surface low will track across central Iowa and across the southeast corner of MN on its way to northeast WI Saturday morning. With this track, the MPX area will remain within the cold sector of this system. Therefore when it comes to hazardous weather, we won't have to worry about the severe side of things, instead, we can place our focus on the cold side.

For the rest of tonight, there's a lot of moving parts. For temperatures, the CAA moving into western MN is shallow and we're developing fairly classic freezing rain soundings where temperatures have fallen below freezing at the surface. These freezing rain profiles will remain in place through roughly 3z (10pm), with the warm nose finally cooling down after that, with a wintry p-type changing from freezing rain over to snow. The big question with this environment is when does the precipitation start falling. The problem we have now for precipitation is we have very dry mid/upper level air sitting above our stratus, but as the surface low moves toward central Iowa this evening, our vertical moisture profile will start to fill in, with a pretty rapid expansion in precip expected across the area between 5pm and 7pm. It continues to look like we'll have a band of freezing rain out in western MN that will be able to pickup upwards of 0.2" inches of ice accumulation from roughly Redwood Falls back to the SoDak border. Though this could move up if freezing rain starts earlier, or drop if it starts later. Overnight, a southwest to northeast oriented deformation band of precip will slowly move across the area from west to east, with early risers Saturday morning in the Twin Cities likely getting treated to some falling snow. Saturday will see quite the spread in temperatures across the area, with clouds making it a struggle for eastern MN and western WI to get out of the 30s, while sun in western MN will likely allow highs in west central MN to reach the low to mid 50s.

Sunday will see our warmest push of air during this stretch, with highs in the 60s expected pretty much area wide. The next front will push through the area on Monday, how quickly it does so will determine how warm we get on Monday, though forecast highs for Monday have trended down some. For the rest of the week, we'll have a strong jet overhead, with a strong thermal gradient across the northern US. With this jet overhead, we'll see numerous waves sneak across the northern CONUS. The first comes Tuesday, which is trending toward central/northern MN, with another for the end of the week. Precipitation for the most part will be on the cool side of the thermal gradient, which means where precip falls, it will most likely fall as snow. As for temperatures next week, we have seen the EPS slowly modify on the cold, with highs expected to be near normal, with a warmer day possible Thursday depending on which side of the Thursday night wave we end up on. As for the cold, that has been pushed out into next weekend, with a proper spring warmup possibly lurking for the last week of March.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions persist through the afternoon & into this evening, as very low clouds below 500 ft at times & patchy drizzle/mist drop visibility down to 1-2 SM. More steady drizzle is expected to begin this afternoon, which may improve visibility & ceilings somewhat, but this drizzle will quickly transition to freezing drizzle across western & central Minnesota through the late afternoon & evening. 0.1-0.2" of ice accumulation is forecast at AXN/RWF/STC & a glaze of ice is possible at MKT & MSP. The freezing rain/drizzle transitions over to snow overnight, where visibility will drop to around 1SM for a few hours, with snowfall rates around 0.5"/hr resulting in a slushy inch or so of accumulation by the morning. Visibility & ceilings improve as the snow ends from west to east during the early to mid morning, with ceilings expected to scatter out by late morning/early afternoon.

Southeast winds around 5-10 mph become northwesterly as the cold air arrives this afternoon, with gusts around 20 kts persisting into tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Borderline LIFR conditions persist this afternoon with ceilings hovering around 500 ft & visibility between 1-2SM with mist & patchy drizzle. Steadier rain arrives this evening, which is expected to improve visibilities & ceilings somewhat, although IFR ceilings are still likely. The light rain is expected to change over to a wintry mix of snow & rain, or possible freezing rain during the overnight hours (2-4 AM), but then quickly change over to all snow for a few hours during the early morning hours. The icing potential at MSP looks low for now, but we'll have to monitor how quickly the precipitation- type trends into this evening. The snow will only last for 2-3 hours, but there could be an hour or two of visibility down to 1SM or less along with snowfall rates of 0.5-0.75"/hr. The snow exits off to the east by 6-7 AM, with ceilings slowly improving through the morning & eventually scattering out during the early afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. TUE...MVFR likely. Chance IFR/-RASN. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for Chippewa- Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for Benton- Kandiyohi-Meeker-Morrison-Redwood-Renville-Stearns-Todd. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for Blue Earth- Brown-Faribault-Isanti-Kanabec-Martin-McLeod-Mille Lacs- Nicollet-Sherburne-Sibley-Watonwan-Wright. WI...None.