textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers possible in southwestern MN Wednesday night. Another chance for snow showers Saturday into Sunday. Significant accumulation not expected in either round.

- A temperature roller coaster through the period. Cool tomorrow, warm Thu/Fri, cool again this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

The line of wintry mix that trekked across the area this morning has moved southwest of the MPX CWA and continues to push through Wisconsin, meaning we will be precipitation free until tomorrow evening in southern MN. The end result of this morning was a glaze up to 1/8 inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain/drizzle mixed with snow pellets, which resulted in an active 511 map with numerous crashes. ACARS soundings during the event showed the significant warm nose and quick saturation as the line moved into the Twin Cities, and combined with upstream reports led to the quick upgrade to an Advisory this morning. The impacts from the precipitation are diminishing quickly as a line of clearing northwest of the line is rapidly moving across the affected area, with temperatures quickly rising at to above freezing in the mid 30s which alongside the sun is quickly melting any glaze of ice left. Due to the low amount of liquid equivalent, we should not have to deal with any kind of refreeze with most of the liquid evaporating due to the sunshine.

A broad surface high moves into the northern plains early on Wednesday and will generally keep us dry heading into Thursday with the exception of the southern periphery in southern Minnesota which could see some light snow showers along the I-90 corridor into Thursday morning. Upper level flow remains zonal to northwesterly with a very broad and narrow jet streak stretching across the CONUS from northern California to the Atlantic south of New England, keeping it too far south to give our area any impacts. In general, the subsidence from the surface high coupled with cooler 850mb temperatures should keep snow chances confined to only southern Minnesota. A secondary weaker branch of the northern stream jet could introduce some weak forcing on the tail end into sunrise Thursday, but right now looks to track over central to northern Minnesota with some light snow showers. For both Thursday and Friday, lower level westerly to west-southwesterly winds will give us weak WAA behind the departing high pressure, resulting in warming temperatures reaching the upper 30s to near 40 on Thursday and mid to upper 40s on Friday. This will be short lived as cooler temperatures with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits return over the weekend as a low pressure system tethered to the northern stream jet over southern Canada drags a cold front across the region by Friday evening, with cooling temperatures underneath subsidence within the right exit region of the upper level jet. This leads into a final chance for snowfall within the period as an arctic high pushes the jet farther south, resulting in a favorable synoptic pattern for forcing via the nose of the upper level jet. There is some competing subsidence via the aforementioned arctic high depending on how far south it drops, which could bring cool/dry air to the near-surface level that could result in some tricky p- type issues if we were to low saturation and cloud ice. Ensemble guidance is still around a 50/50 to 60/40 split regarding precipitation chances across the area, with the ECMWF ensemble showing potential for 1-3 inches of snow, however any freezing drizzle mixing in or stronger influence of the arctic high would bring down the snow amounts by a sizable amount. NBM PoPs in the 40s seem like a safe bet for now, with some better agreement needed before a more confident forecast can be made.

Behind the weekend system, warmer temperatures return once again with southerly lower level flow bringing in some potential Gulf moisture and temperatures in the 40s. The northern stream jet retreats to the north which also gives us a chance for a more Pacific airmass beginning Monday or Tuesday next week, which would also bump up temperatures. The average high today for the Twin Cities is 32 and this will only continue to increase, especially as we get into March and the amount of daylight we acquire every day continues to rise. And consider this your first reminder of the 'Spring Forward' of Daylight Saving Time a week from Sunday on March 8th!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

We're now fully post frontal with northwest winds in place. Main uncertainty this period deals with the batch of MVFR cigs from southeast NoDak into the Bemidji area. RAP soundings show this moisture moving southeast through the night, with most of our sites experiencing a 4-7 hour window of 015-025 cigs overnight. These clouds are also producing some light snow. Did not bring any precip into MPX terminals, but will have to watch how the light snow trends as well as this cloud bank drifts southeast. After sunrise, we'll be VFR for the rest of Wednesday.

KMSP...Hi-res models shows MVFR cigs being most likely between 4z and 9z. Other than that, we'll have VFR conditions this period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts bcmg NW 15G25kts. SAT...VFR. Chc -SN/MVFR. Wind NW at 10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.