textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and dry period through the rest of the week, next chance for isolated showers and storms arrives Friday night.

- More chances for isolated to scattered showers over the weekend, however it looks like there will be plenty of dry time between precipitation chances. Temperature forecast remains a bit uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

TODAY AND TOMORROW...Early morning temperatures are comfortable (perhaps even a little crisp!) as current observations feature low to mid 50s outside of the Twin Cities heat island. There are even a couple of reports in the upper 40s at this hour across central MN. Another pleasant day of weather is expected, but it will be slightly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An area of high pressure over southern MN & northern IA will be the main influence on our weather, supporting light winds and mainly clear skies outside of a few daytime cumulus clouds. High pressure remains in place for Thursday, however temperatures are forecast to warm back to near normal values in the low to mid 80s due to a southerly wind shift associated with a shortwave moving across central Canada.

NEXT RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...The large scale view captures an upper-low over Hudson Bay and a ridge over the desert southwest heading into this weekend. The Upper Midwest will remain positioned in between these two features, within a region of northwesterly flow aloft. A series of shortwaves are forecast to move across central Canada and will send a few fronts south across the region Friday-Monday. Latest model suite brings the first front through the forecast area Friday afternoon-evening. Scattered showers and a few storms may develop ahead of the frontal passage, however severe weather is currently not expected. The best chance for storms will be across southeastern MN and western WI during the evening. The weekend high temperature forecast features some uncertainty due to the depth of cooler air aloft captured in model guidance. Simply put, there is a spread in how far south the coolest air will get following the frontal passage on Friday. For now, the NBM's highs in the low to the mid-80s are a reasonable forecast, but further refinements up or down may be needed over the coming days. In addition to having an impact on the temperature forecast, the remnant baroclinic zone will act as the tracks for addition shower and storm chances through the weekend. The best chance for precipitation after Friday evening will be Sunday evening into Monday, as a potentially stronger wave moves across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures take a step back into the lower 80s following the precipitation chances early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions with light southwesterly winds expected through the period. Winds are expected to go more southerly and increase a little (up to 10kts) by early tomorrow morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.