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KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance for showers or storms across southeastern MN & western WI this evening. Most locations will remain dry.

- Quiet weather the next couple of days. Active weather returns Friday with a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms.

- Extended forecast features additional rain chances heading into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Morning batch of much welcomed rain and thunderstorms has exited the region this afternoon. CoCoRahs network displays a swath of 1-3" reports across east central MN into western WI (north of I-94) which is good news for the ongoing severe drought situation. For the rest of the afternoon, expect mostly dry and breezy conditions with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Additional precipitation chances arrive this evening as a surface cold front slides eastward across the forecast area. Observations place the front near the SD/MN border at this hour, which is also depicted in a sharp cut-off in cloud cover on visible satellite. A pool of low 70s dew points is advecting northward across western MN and will yield moderate instability and combine with sufficient shear to support isolated thunderstorm development. However, with the strongest kinematic forcing displaced to the north across southern Canada, CAMs are not particularly impressed with coverage of additional convection. Followed HREF trends and added in slight chance to chance (20-40%) PoPs across southeastern MN & western WI this evening. In other words, those with outdoor plan should keep an eye to the sky for a passing shower or storm ahead of the frontal passage, but we anticipate most locations will remain dry. Winds turn WNW behind the front and will support the advection of 50s dew points into the region.

The next couple of days will be dry, sunny, and comfortable with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 each afternoon. The one variable of note will be breezy WNW winds that are forecast to gust between 25-30 mph tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise we anticipate a quiet few days of weather with patchy fog possible in the morning hours (especially eastern MN/western WI).

Our next round of active weather arrives Friday afternoon and evening. An active Pacific jet will send a shortwave and associated 50-60kt belt of upper-flow across the northern Plains Friday. At the surface, an area of 990s mb low pressure is progged to develop across the Dakotas and work in tandem with a cold frontal passage to support the development of potential severe thunderstorms. While the usual model uncertainties remain, the potential environment does highlight potential organized severe convection. Frontal approach and the intensification of a seasonably strong 45-50kt LLJ will assist in the erosion of a capping inversion, allowing for surface based convection in an environment highlighted by 1500+ J/kg of CAPE across a warm sector characterized by low-level curvature in the hodographs. Would like to see stronger vertical shear, which seems to be lagging to the west given the placement of the upper-wave, though 30-40kts of effective shear in tandem with the low-level directional shear bears watching. Additionally, the displacement of large scale forcing does add some question into the overall extent of the threat, but the intensification of the LLJ would likely counter this. Should trends continue, an all-hazards type of risk may develop across the region, which is highlighted by severe weather probabilities by all of NCAR's AI-Convective outlooks. SPC has issued a Day 4 15% (Slight Risk) across much of the MPX forecast area.

Quiet weather returns briefly on Saturday, prior to the arrival of additional rain chances Sunday into the start of next. Deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning guidance are in decent agreement with a stronger bowling-bowl upper low coming ashore in the Pacific NW this weekend and moving across the central CONUS towards the start of next week. Consensus track places a region of broad ascent and isentropic upglide over the eastern Plains into the Upper Midwest, which in turn brings widespread (perhaps moderate to heavy) rain chances into the forecast. It's going to be some time before we can dial into the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall axis, however the pieces are coming together for another chance of much needed rain early next week. The NBM features these chances with 70-80 PoPs already loaded into Sunday PM/Monday AM grids! Early week rainfall followed by the influence of a cooler Canadian airmass has resulted in cooler temperatures (60s for afternoon highs) next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Showers from this morning have cleared most of the forecast area. ISO showers will exist across western WI for the next hours or so. CIGs remain MVFR across the area with BKN to OVC at 2-3 kft, becoming VFR by 20-21z this afternoon. Skies will remain SCT to BKN through most of the period. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest through the afternoon at 8-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Slight chances of TSRA will be possible this evening along an advancing cold front. Confidence is low regarding TS for any terminals, so no mention in TAF. FROPA is expected this evening with winds becoming westerly.

KMSP...MVFR cigs will improve to VFR cigs by 20-21z. ISO storms will be possible this evening as an advancing frontal boundary moves through this evening. Confidence is low, so no mention in TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. SHRA/MVFR likely late. Wind SW 15G25-30kts. SAT...VFR. Winds NW 10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.