textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- One more very warm day Saturday, then temperatures retreat back to near normal.

- Multiple chances for rain from this afternoon through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A band of showers from western to south central MN continues to progress eastward this afternoon at about 20 kts. There have been a few isolated thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours embedded within the band, especially during the late morning and midday. Intensity will continue waning as the afternoon progresses and chances are low it will reach WI. South winds have been gusty today and temperatures have once again reached the 70s ahead of the band of rain where sun has been prevalent.

A cold front over Montana today will propagate east tonight and reach the Upper Midwest Saturday. A warm and somewhat moist airmass will keep lows quite mild tonight, likely remaining in the low 60s. Temperatures will warm quickly ahead of the front which is expected to be passing through western MN mid to late morning. Highs across southern/eastern MN and WI should reach the mid to possibly upper 70s before tumbling behind the front. Another band of showers will develop along the front throughout the day, then weaken and scatter by evening across southern MN and WI. A few showers may linger through Sunday.

The front will stall across the mid MS Valley Sunday, then lift back to the north Monday and Tuesday as an upper low over the desert Southwest finally ejects northeast across the Plains. This compact system will bring rain to the central Plains Sunday night and the Upper Midwest Monday into early Tuesday. QPF is pretty impressive along the track of the low from Nebraska to eastern SD and western MN where amounts may exceed 1-1.5 inches.

Another system may follow quickly on the heels of the early week system Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is still quite a bit of model spread after Tuesday, leading to continuing chances of showers and low confidence. Ridging will try to build back late week and temperatures may trend back above normal for Halloween weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Much of the 18z TAF was kept intact as the timing of LLWS for the first 15 hours of the period is still likely given the front moving in. Eastern sites will experience some -SHRA early before drying out, with mostly dry conditions until the last few hours when further -SHRA is possible. Winds will weaken and eventually shift towards 240-270 and then again towards 300 by the end of the period with gusts dropping back as they turn westerly. The -SHRA could produce some brief periods of MVFR, but we largely remain VFR across all sites as intensity will be relatively low and CIGS will remain low end VFR.

KMSP...We maintain a status quo TAF with an hour or two of -SHRA possible, followed by LLWS. Winds begin to shift after 15z, fully rotating to the 300-330 direction after 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind N 5kts. MON...-RA/MVFR likely, chc IFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. TUE...-SHRA/MVFR. Wind E 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.