textproduct: Twin Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread soaking rain today trough Wednesday. Amounts near an inch along I-90, with higher amounts to the north and west.

- Highs in the 60s today and Tuesday will fall back into the 40s and 50s the rest of the week.

- Additional minor rain chances return for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A large, slow moving system will bring widespread rain today, with on and off rain showers lasting through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday. No significant impacts are expected. The highest rainfall amounts near 3 inches are near Alexandria MN, and this will be more of a soaking rain to recharge the dry conditions. The only flooding concerns would be from ponding of water where leaves clog up the drains.

The first wave of this rainfall is driven by a surge of low level theta_e advection ahead of a upper level PV anomaly within a longwave trough. This will bring most locations the majority of the rainfall as it lifts northward today. The lack of instability is the limiting factor on severe weather, but a few rumbles of thunder are possible. Meanwhile, strong southeast wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph should remain just below wind advisory criteria.

Overnight, the steady rain will lift north, and the winds will decrease as another PV anomaly rounds the base of the longwave trough, leading to cyclogenesis across the Ozarks. This wave will be impacted by the northern stream ridge, and how these two features interact will determine where the rain falls Tuesday through Thursday. The current thinking is that the longwave trough will lift up over the Upper Mississippi River Valley and stall out, with the deformation band forming most likely west of I-35, on Tuesday, and rotating across the region on Wednesday. This means the highest rainfall totals continue to be across western and northern Minnesota, but the rest of us will still see clouds and scattered rain showers from Tuesday through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A brief area of high pressure will build in across the region from west to east on Thursday, but clouds and showers could be slow to exit the area. Friday should be dry and cool with sun, but another clipper system will move in from the northwest Friday night into Saturday and bring clouds along with a chance for rain on Saturday. This will be a small, quick-moving system that should exit the region by Sunday allowing drier weather to move in for the start of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1117 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The majority of the impactful rain has ended for tonight, with only weak showers or light drizzle being reported at a few terminals at the start of the TAF. Cigs will continue to be the main aviation concern, especially across west-central Minnesota where cloud bases have dropped below 500ft already. Otherwise, a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through the rest of the period. Scattered rain showers redevelop tomorrow morning, becoming heavy during the afternoon in some locations. Rain is not expected to be constant at every TAF site, though rain showers will be moving through the area for at least the next 24 hours, impacting the majority of TAF sites off an on.

As the center of the low tracks east across Minnesota and Wisconsin, winds shift to W/NW and increase by Tuesday afternoon, especially for western Minnesota.

KMSP...Very light showers or drizzle are expected to start the TAF period, though they should have little impact. Rain showers redevelop across the area around 12z this morning and continue off and on through the end of the period. A window of heavier rainfall is expected, and is most likely between 19z to 23z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED... -RA/MVFR, Chc IFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts THU... VFR, chance AM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind N 5-10 kts FRI... VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.