textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Isolated showers and MVFR ceilings across coastal Alabama should subside over the next couple of hours leading to VFR conditions for most of the night. Isolated to scattered showers will likely develop during the morning along the coast and MVFR ceilings are also expected to accompany said showers before clearing during the afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southeast around 10 knots tonight increasing to around 15 knots tomorrow afternoon. BB/03

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday night) Issued at 344 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

An upper ridge will remain over the eastern states with sfc high pressure across the western Atlantic. This will continue to maintain an east to south wind flow with slowly increasing moisture levels. The increasing moisture levels combine with some weak isentropic lift will maintain a few isolated showers this afternoon into early evening that will dissipate tonight. A very similar pattern expected on Monday with breezy southeast winds and isolated showers mainly along the immediate coast. However, most areas will remain dry and warm with high temps in the low to mid 80s. Increasing surf is expected near the beaches with the increased southeast flow and a high risk of rip currents continues. A High Surf Advisory may become necessary from Monday until about midday Tuesday for marginally high surf heights of 5 feet. /13

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 344 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

The biggest item is a system moving into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning, then moving north over the eastern Gulf. This system is moving north on the west side of upper level high pressure situated over the northern Caribbean. How far north and how strong is dependent upon a deepening upper low moving over the Plains and another tropical system moving over the southern Caribbean on the heels of the first along with shortwave energy moving through the zonal upper flow over the Southeast. With this morning's 12z guidance, this first system moves it as far north as west of Tampa Bay before upper wind shear over the eastern Gulf increases due to varying upper pattern. From there, some guidance is advertising the remnants moving off to the west, with others moving the remnants towards northeastern Florida. Will continue to monitor.

For the forecast area and nearby, a surface ridge that has built southwest over the Southeast continues to push alternating bands of moister and drier air northwest over the Southeast Tuesday into Tuesday night, before the system moving north over the eastern Gulf pushes a more moist airmass north over the eastern portions of the Southeast Wednesday on. For PoPs, some guidance is advertising a band of moister (precipitable h20 values around 1.5") air moving over the forecast area Tuesday, bringing isolated rainshowers mainly to areas west of a Thomasville to Crestview line before a drier band moves over the area. As more moisture returns to the eastern half of the Southeast as the system moves north, isolated to scattered rainshowers with a few thunderstorms return to areas mainly east of the Alabama River Wednesday into Thursday night. From there, isolated to low end scattered PoPs are advertised Friday through the weekend.

With upper level high pressure remaining in control to varying degrees over the northern Gulf/southern Southeast, temperatures remain above seasonal norms through the period. Temperatures do see a bit of downward trend Tuesday into the weekend, with high temperatures dropping from low to mid 80s Tuesday to upper 70s to low 80s for the weekend. Low temperatures drop general 60s Tuesday night to the upper 50s north of Highway 84 to mid 60s along the coast.

The consistent east/southeasterly flow over the open Gulf through the week, the risk of rip currents remains high through most of the week. /16

MARINE... Issued at 344 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

A moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly wind flow prevails until diminishing on Tuesday. A light to moderate easterly flow follows for Wednesday with increasing northeasterly flow expected on Thursday. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 69 82 67 83 66 85 68 84 / 0 30 10 20 10 20 20 20 Pensacola 71 80 71 81 69 82 70 81 / 10 10 10 20 10 30 30 30 Destin 70 82 70 82 70 82 71 81 / 0 0 0 10 20 50 40 30 Evergreen 63 82 63 83 63 84 66 82 / 10 0 0 20 10 30 30 30 Waynesboro 65 82 62 84 63 86 65 84 / 0 10 0 20 10 10 10 20 Camden 63 81 62 80 61 84 65 80 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 20 20 Crestview 63 86 63 87 64 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 10 20 50 40 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.


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