textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Elevated rain chances will be in place through the weekend and into early next week. Locally heavy rain possible.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Multiple weather stations from the central to the northeast sections of Mobile Co have received upwards of 4 to 9 inches of rainfall since the middle of the morning as organized storms have moved little. The net result has been flooding problems with numerous reports of cars stalled in high water. Unfortunately radar trends indicate new development upstream which will hamper any short term easing of water. Be on the lookout for short fused flood warnings and advisories and updates; be prepared to act quickly. If flooded roads are encountered, turn around and find another route.

Beach flags are now flying red (High Rip Currents) for Gulf Shores beaches and have updated surf zone product to reflect update. /10

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

22.12Z upper air maps show a more active southwest flow at higher levels atop the area. A complex, broad upper trof is positioned over the Plains. Embedded in a short-wave mid/upper level negative tilt oriented trof, a lead impulse will eject north northeast up across the Ohio River Valley by this evening. In its wake though, southwest flow at high levels remains in place and with that comes the path for a series of mid level impulses to continue ejecting northeast over the area. Radar shows scattered to numerous showers and embedded storms aligned northeast to southwest in the mean upper flow. These storms have a history of efficient warm rain processes and several inch an hour rainfall rates which will cause water to pile up, especially in lower lying areas that have drainage issues and can't keep up. Be on the lookout for short fused flood warnings and advisories; be prepared to act quickly. An assessment of deep layer moisture via near- by 22.12Z soundings indicate PWAT's 1.8 to 2.0" and near 2 standard deviations above the mean for May 22nd layer moisture. There are indications in the short- range ensembles that PWAT's will fluctuate heading into the weekend to a range of 1.6 to 1.8 inches on average which is still 1 to 2 standard deviations above the mean for late May. With more than sufficient environmental moisture in place, the combination of ascent provided by the passage of a series of upper level impulses atop weakly reflected surface based mesoscale boundaries suggests that weekend plans will need to involve an umbrella. The risk of severe weather is low with the risk of locally heavy rains and instances of flooding being the main focus. The latest Day One Excessive Rain Outlook Update ending 12Z Sat 5/23 has been upgraded to Slight for much of the local area. The set-up in place, favors the passage of multiple rounds of showers and few storms through the weekend and this pattern is likely to continue on well into next week. Certainly good news for a drought stricken central Gulf coast.

With clouds and elevated rain chances, high temperatures tempered somewhat through the period, mainly ranging in the lower to mid 80's and generally a few degrees below late May seasonal normals. Little change in overnight lows. Mid/upper 60's interior to lower/mid 70's coast.

Latest beach flags for much of the northwest FL beaches are flying red and have updated the surf zone forecast to to reflect High risk through Saturday morning. With consistent onshore flow and swell varying in strength, will keep the Rip Risk at moderate through early next week but can't rule out High activity from time to time. /10

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Bands of rain moving over areas south of Highway 84 will drop upper MVFR to VFR conditions to low end MVFR/IFR in the heaviest rain. Locally gusty winds are also possible in the stronger storms, though the possiblity continues to decrease as the day's heating is lost/used up. Another round of convection is possible Saturday, with local drops in conditions to low end MVFR possible and routes possibly affected. /16

MARINE

Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

High pressure to the east favors light, to at times moderate southeasterly flow this weekend and into early next week. Highest seas generally 2 to 3 feet. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 86 71 84 / 50 70 20 90 Pensacola 74 84 73 84 / 40 50 20 60 Destin 74 83 73 84 / 60 60 20 40 Evergreen 70 85 69 86 / 40 90 20 80 Waynesboro 69 85 68 83 / 50 70 50 90 Camden 69 84 68 83 / 50 80 40 90 Crestview 70 87 70 88 / 50 80 10 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.