textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will steadily increase in coverage each afternoon through Friday, gradually diminishing this weekend. Storms will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Summer continues across the area with heat indices topping out at around 100-107 degrees each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A few thunderstorms are present over the forecast area in the early evening. This convection will continue to decrease through the evening. No updates needed at this time. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Our pattern remains persistent across the area today into Wednesday yielding isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. We become more active with numerous showers and storms expected Thursday and Friday as upper troughing digs into the area and ridging shifts west. Our trough lifts out for the weekend and ridging comes back into the picture bringing us back to a more typical summer time pattern this weekend with isolated to scattered storms and warm temperatures.

Isolated showers and storms today will be mostly the product of afternoon heating and convergence along the sea-breeze boundary. Outside of this, things will likely struggle without more robust daytime heating and residual subsidence over the area. This will change as we head into Wednesday as a weak disturbance moves over the area and we realize much better instability. Still anticipate mostly scattered coverage of storms with best coverage likely across southeastern Mississippi. Dry mid-level air remains in place along with some modest inverted-V profiles in the low levels owing to afternoon mixing. This should allow for any storms to carry the potential to produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts in addition to heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

Thursday into Friday we see a subtle pattern change with upper troughing amplifying over the area allowing for multiple shortwaves to push across the region and southerly low level flow becomes established to bring in moisture off the gulf. This will set the stage for numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, with the best forcing occurring on Friday as the trough axis pushes across the area. Light shear and deep moist profiles should help limit severe thunderstorm potential, but can't rule out some wet microbursts where cell mergers occur. Slow storm motions coupled with weak Corfidi vectors in addition to the deep, warm moist airmass may help bolster some localized flash flooding potential Thursday into Friday, although it's difficult to tell at this time which locations would have better chances. An inch or two of rain across the area seems most probable right now, with locally 2 to 4 inches in any areas that see training thunderstorms. We'll continue to monitor this as we head throughout the week.

Once we get past this, upper ridging moves in and upper troughing lifts out giving us improving weather conditions for the weekend. We may still contend with scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday, best coverage east of the I-65 corridor, but Sunday looks like a dry day for most locations. An isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out Sunday for coastal portions of the area along the sea-breeze boundary. A Low risk of rip currents continues through the rest of this week into the weekend. MM/25

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. A few residual thunderstorms over the area will decrease through the evening with the loss of the day's heating. The convection will shift south of the coast overnight. Rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected to again develop in the afternoon Wednesday. Local drops in conditions to mid MVFR levels and locally variable winds are possible with the stronger storms. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1058 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

We transition out of our diurnal flow pattern mid to late week as light to occasionally moderate southerly to southwesterly flow becomes established Wednesday into Thursday. Flow gradually shifts southeasterly late week into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected each day with locally higher seas and winds near storms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 94 74 91 / 10 50 30 90 Pensacola 77 91 77 89 / 10 30 30 80 Destin 78 89 79 88 / 10 40 30 70 Evergreen 71 96 71 92 / 0 30 20 90 Waynesboro 73 97 73 92 / 0 40 40 90 Camden 72 95 73 90 / 0 10 30 80 Crestview 71 94 72 91 / 10 40 20 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.