textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1201 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week with afternoon highs approaching 80 degrees by midweek.

- We will monitor the potential for fog late this weekend as southerly winds bring increased moisture levels.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A broad upper ridge located mostly over the central CONUS dampens and moves off into the western Atlantic through Wednesday as a large upper trof advances into the western states and northern Plains. The upper trof eventually advances across the central states and into the eastern states this weekend, with an associated surface low bringing a cold front through the forecast area Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Ahead of the front, a surface ridge shifts off to the east and allows for a southerly flow to become established by Tuesday. We will need to monitor for the potential for nocturnal fog development each night as the southerly flow brings increasing moisture in the area. Dry conditions are otherwise expected through Tuesday, then modest isentropic lift will support mainly slight chance pops initially near the coast Tuesday night then over much of the area on Wednesday. Slight chance to chance pops follow for Thursday with likely pops Thursday night as a series of modest shortwaves move across the area. Chance to likely pops continue Friday through Saturday night as the front approaches then moves through. Rain chances taper off west to east on Sunday with dry conditions expected for Sunday night and Monday. While instability for the most part remains limited, MLCAPE values look to increase to 500-1000 J/kg late Friday night into Saturday as the front progresses into the area. With an 850 mb jet near 30-35 knots, sufficient shear looks to be present to support a concern for strong storms. Will continue to monitor at this point.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through tonight for the Alabama beaches and through Tuesday for the western Florida panhandle beaches. A low risk is otherwise expected through Wednesday night. A moderate risk of rip currents follows for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures trend warmer through Thursday to the mid 70s to lower 80s, values which are 10-20 degrees above normal. Similarly warm highs are expected for Friday, then cooler air flows into the area in the wake of the front with highs on Monday in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Nighttime lows will be mild for the most part, though then drop to the mid 30s to lower 40s by Sunday night. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

MVFR ceilings will gradually erode from northeast to southwest to become scattered cumulus clouds through mid-afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return by late evening, with a mix of IFR/MVFR visibilities across SE Mississippi, Coastal Alabama, and far northwest Florida late tonight due to patchy fog. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1201 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A light easterly flow develops tonight then becomes a light to moderate southeasterly flow on Tuesday. An onshore flow continues Wednesday into Friday. Further out into the forecast, a cold front moves through Saturday night, and a Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary late Saturday night into Monday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 51 72 59 77 / 0 0 20 20 Pensacola 54 68 60 74 / 0 0 20 30 Destin 54 67 58 71 / 0 0 10 30 Evergreen 45 74 53 77 / 0 0 10 20 Waynesboro 49 73 56 78 / 0 0 10 10 Camden 46 73 55 77 / 0 0 10 10 Crestview 46 72 53 76 / 0 0 10 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.