textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity.

- Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights.

- A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A strong upper-level ridge is expected to maintain its hold over the southeast US through much of the period. This ridge, along with high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic, will help to maintain warm and dry conditions through the week and into next weekend. The only feature that does attempt to pass near the local area is a weakening shortwave that pushes across the Tennessee River Valley late Thursday into Friday. At this point, any forcing associated with this shortwave looks to remain to our north and overall deep moisture values continue to remain rather limited. Highs through the period will generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Would not be surprised to see one or two inland locations crack the 90 degree mark by late week. Lows through midweek will range from the mid 50s to the low 60s, trending closer to the low to mid 60s by late week.

With strong ridging in place, along with light winds and saturated boundary layer conditions, fog development is looking increasingly likely over the next few nights. Winds just above the surface may be strong enough to keep overall dense fog coverage rather patchy once again tonight. However, by Monday night and Tuesday night, as the upper ridge settles directly overhead, much lighter winds may help to lead to a higher coverage of dense fog. This increased potential can be seen by much higher probabilities in the latest SREF/HREF guidance. Will continue to monitor this potential over the next few forecast cycles.

A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through midweek. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through late evening followed by visibilities lowering as patchy to areas of fog forms mostly inland with IFR levels likely, especially towards sunrise. This fog is expected to quickly mix out soon after sunrise. Winds becoming light and variable overnight will resume a southerly component at 5 to 10 knots Monday morning. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Wednesday, becoming more southerly by Thursday. /96

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Little to no relief is expected for our ongoing drought situation as warm and dry conditions continue over the next 7 days. Although afternoon humidity values and 20 foot wind speeds remain below Red Flag criteria, the worsening drought will continue to lead to an elevated fire risk across the area. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 61 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 64 77 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 64 75 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 55 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 59 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 57 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 54 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.