textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

An upper level ridge to our west will continue to dominate the forecast, bringing very hot conditions across the area. In addition to the heat, there is plenty of moisture available with PWs up around the 2 inch mark. This helps keep isolated to scattered convection chances around each day this week. With dry air above the moisture at the surface, it would not be too surprising to see a strong storm or two with this convection. Locally strong to damaging wind gusts would be the main concern, especially if we see boundary collisions.

The heat will continue to be the main focus of the forecast. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8pm this evening. A new Heat Advisory was issued for tomorrow along with an Extreme Heat Warning for areas along the coast and around the Bays. Heat indices in the areas of the warning may get up to ~115F. Heat headlines are likely to last through late this week with afternoon MaxTs reaching the upper 90s, possibly evening touching 100 in some spots along, with dew points in the low to mid 70s and even upper 70s closer to the coast.These values will lead to heat indices of 108-112 most days, with some spots reaching up to 115. Overnight lows will not bring a lot in the way of relief from the heat as they remain in the mid to upper 70s, possibly not even dropping below 80 for coastal areas. Know the signs of heat illnesses and ensure to stay hydrated and take breaks if outdoors.

We may finally start to see some relief from this heat to end the week and into the weekend as the ridge to our west begins to break down. Models even hint at a deepening trough trying to make its way down here which could bring increased rain chances, adding to the potential heat relief.

BEACH FORECAST

The rip current risk will remain moderate over the next couple days for Florida beaches. The rip current risk for Alabama beaches will also be moderate beginning tomorrow and lasting into midweek. Surf heights will generally remain low through the end of the week, areas that see convection may briefly see higher heights.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals this afternoon and this should persist through the forecast period. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the afternoon which may briefly bring MVFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Fairly benign over the marine waters this week with light to moderate southwest to westerly flow. There will be isolated to scattered chances of thunderstorms each morning which could bring locally higher winds and seas. Outside of convection, no impacts are expected.

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261- 262.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ263>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201-203-205.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ202- 204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.