textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents today for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Gale conditions are expected across much of the coastal waters today in the wake of the strong cold front. Strong winds tonight will continue to create hazards conditions for small craft through Tuesday.

- A freeze is expected across the region early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with the exception of the immediate coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Now through Monday...

For today, a strong cold front that crossed the forecast area today has moved offshore. Rain showers associated with the front have moved southeast of the forecast area. Well behind the front, precipitation fell over our northern counties, but with a dry layer between 850mb and 700mb, flash cooling created sleet, mainly along and north of Highway 84. As of this writing, any reported snow was well north of the forecast area. Post frontal flow is breezy over land portions of the forecast area, but not Wind Advisory levels.

For the rest of the week, a series of strong upper level shortwaves embedded in a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus moves off, leaving the mean upper trough. An upper ridge builds over the western Conus, shifting upper flow to a dry northwesterly. A modest surface ridge builds over the Southeast, bringing weak onshore flow to the the forecast area. Best onshore flow on the western edge of the surface ridge remains well west of the forecast area keeping any moisture influx away from the forecast area. More weak impulses move through the upper trough, with an uptick in cloud cover Wednesday into Thursday in response to a stronger passing shortwave. The meh levels of moisture over the forecast area will limit any measurable precipitation with this shortwave. More energy moving through the mean upper trough shifts the trough a bit east, with the surface ridge over the Southeast shifting south to over the Gulf by the weekend. The axis of moisture influx shifts, bringing more Gulf moisture towards the forecast area by the end of the weekend.

Behind today's frontal passage, a significantly cooler airmass moves over the forecast area and nearby. Tonight, Freezing temperatures return to the forecast area tonight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for tonight. Wind Chills remain above criteria levels, though. Freezing temperatures are again possible Tuesday night, with any further WWAs depending upon which areas do not bottom out below freezing tonight. From there, low temperatures moderate upwards, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s by the weekend. High temperatures see the same upward trend rising from a well below seasonal low to mid 50s Tuesday to the low to mid 80s for the coming weekend.

Swell from strong onshore flow ahead of today's frontal passage will ease with the shift to offshore flow, dropping the High Risk of Rip Currents currently to Low tonight. Light winds for the rest of the week will keep onshore swell low, maintaining a Low Risk of Rip Currents this week into the weekend. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

MVFR to VFR ceilings will quickly improve to VFR this afternoon as skies clear. A strong northerly wind will persist with sustained winds around 15 knots gusting to 25 to 30 knots. Winds should relax overnight. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Strong to very strong post frontal offshore flow will ease tonight into Tuesday. A Gale Warning for open Gulf waters eases to a Small Craft Advisory tonight, before the whole shooting match eases to a light to occasionally moderate onshore by Wednesday. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 52 31 55 34 / 30 0 0 0 Pensacola 53 35 55 38 / 50 0 0 0 Destin 65 36 55 40 / 70 0 0 0 Evergreen 50 28 54 28 / 50 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 28 52 31 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 47 28 50 29 / 30 0 0 0 Crestview 55 29 56 28 / 60 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261>264.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201-203-205.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>636.

Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.