textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 - Tropical Storm Watch in effect for coastal zones and waters. Storm Surge Watch in effect for coastal Alabama. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible near the coast through mid week.

- High risk of rip currents begins this evening for western Florida Panhandle and Alabama beaches. High Surf Warning in effect starting Tuesday afternoon into early evening.

- Heat Advisory in effect for southeast Mississippi until 7 pm Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression Two which is currently located about 120 miles south of Panama City, Florida, is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to move across the far offshore waters of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle Tuesday into Tuesday night before exiting to the west. Please see the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Tropical Depression Two. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for coastal portions of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for coastal Alabama for storm surge heights potentially reaching 2-4 feet during periods of high tide Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Storm surge heights of 1-3 feet will be possible along coastal portions of the western Florida panhandle. Have issued a High Surf Advisory for surf heights building to around 10 feet across beach areas. The High Surf Advisory begins at 1 pm Tuesday for the western Florida panhandle and at 7 pm for Alabama and continues until 6 am Thursday, by which time surf heights should have sufficiently subsided. A High Risk of rip currents comes in effect this evening and continues until dropping to a moderate risk on Friday.

There is a marginal potential for some localized flooding concerns mainly over the coastal areas through much of the week. Will have slight chance to chance pops for the southern portion of the area mainly this evening then for Tuesday have gone with likely to categorical pops east of I-65 tapering to low pops across interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. As the tropical system continues off to the west on Wednesday, will have chance to likely pops roughly along and east of I-65 with slight chance pops elsewhere. For Thursday on into Sunday, have gone with chance to likely pops each day as abundant deep layer moisture looks to be in place in an otherwise summertime pattern. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for southeast Mississippi until 7 pm Tuesday for heat index values up to 110. Elsewhere, heat index values of 100-107 are anticipated. It's possible that the Heat Advisory may need to be extended into portions of southwest Alabama on Tuesday as heat index values reach criteria of 108 in a few spots, but this looks limited in scope at this point. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected over most of the area through tonight. As TD2/Bertha approaches the area Tuesday, bands of showers and thunderstorms will bring local drops to mid/upper MVFR levels. North winds 5 to 10 knots will shift to northeasterly as they increase to 10 to 15 knots Tuesday morning. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm and move across the far offshore waters of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle Tuesday into Tuesday night before exiting to the west. Tropical storm force winds will impact the Gulf waters Tuesday through Wednesday. Waves with this system peak at 10 to 15 feet Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening before subsiding. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 94 76 93 / 20 40 40 60 Pensacola 76 90 78 91 / 30 80 60 60 Destin 77 89 80 90 / 40 90 70 60 Evergreen 73 91 74 91 / 20 60 30 50 Waynesboro 75 96 76 96 / 10 20 20 20 Camden 74 91 75 91 / 10 20 10 20 Crestview 73 90 75 91 / 20 90 60 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Tropical Storm Watch for ALZ263>266.

Storm Surge Watch for ALZ265-266.

High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ202-204-206.

High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.