textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 608 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- A Moderate risk of rip currents today increases to a High risk for Thursday through the weekend for all area beaches.

- Rain chances substantially increase Thursday through the weekend. Numerous showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Southerly flow will increase Thursday into Friday as an upper trough moves into the southern plains. This will induce a sfc low to develop across the plains states and move northeast. A trailing frontal boundary will move slowly southeast. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will build off the southeast coast. Deep southerly flow will bring Gulf moisture surging back into the region Friday through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday becoming numerous to widespread on Friday. The wet pattern continues through the weekend as precipitable water values climb to 2.3 inches. Deep, warm rain processes will enable locally heavy rain at times.

While the timing and placement of the heaviest rain remains uncertain, localized flash flooding would become a risk where storms train repeatedly, particularly in urban and poor-drainage areas. WPC has outlooked much of the area in a slight risk of excessive rainfall both Saturday and Sunday. /13

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Expect prevailing VFR conditions for this evening and tonight. Only a few isolated -SHRA through about 00-03Z will dissipate, however, will likely see more isolated to eventually scattered SHRA across coastal areas after 06-08Z, spreading inland during the morning hours 12-15Z. Have introduced best timing/coverage for Prob30's for area TAF sites but generally expect passing showers at any point during the day on Thursday through the evening hours. Main impacts will be brief reductions in flight categories from periodic reduced VIS/CIGs but expecting VFR outside of any SHRA activity. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow develops on Thursday and continues through Saturday. Winds decrease early next week. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the Saturday. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 88 73 87 / 10 50 30 90 Pensacola 77 87 77 86 / 10 40 50 90 Destin 76 87 77 86 / 10 30 40 80 Evergreen 67 91 68 90 / 0 20 0 80 Waynesboro 68 89 69 89 / 0 40 0 80 Camden 68 91 70 90 / 0 10 10 60 Crestview 69 89 71 88 / 0 40 10 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.