textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1256 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through today, with periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding. Any stronger storms will also be capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

- A High risk of rip currents continues along the Northwest Florida beaches through today. A Moderate risk continues for the remainder of area beaches through Friday.

- Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the triple digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Through Thursday...an upper level low that has organized over the Southeast meanders west to over the Southern Plains. An upper ridge organizes over the eastern Conus, though a weak upper trough stretching east over the Tenn River Valley/Southeast remains embedded in the ridge. A soupy airmass over the Southeast (precipitable h20 values in the 2"-2.3") shifts north as a ridge of upper pressure develops over the northern Gulf coast, with the forecast area drying out in the process. Guidance is inconsistent with the northward shift, though the majority drop PoPs to a few developing in the afternoon by Thursday afternoon, if enough instability develops. With a surface low currently over the Southeast shifting west to over the Southern Plains with the shifting upper low, any storms developing Tuesday through Thursday will take a more easterly path.

Looking at temperatures, below seasonal high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s Tuesday rise into the around 90 to low 90s for Thursday. Low temperatures in the around 70 to low 70s inland from the coast rise into the low to mid 70s by Thursday night. Low temperatures along the coast remain in the upper 70s through mid week.

Friday through the weekend...guidance continues to advertise shortwave energy meandering around over the Southeast, eventually digging a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus or the East Coast. Increased moisture moves back with the developing upper trough. With varying placement of the upper trough, where over the Southeast precipitation returns to the region varies. The best compromise is showers and thunderstorms return to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Temperatures rise a bit more, to several degrees above seasonal norms. Heat indices also rise as moisture levels rise over the forecast area, rising to Heat Advisory levels over most of the area Monday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a moderate to strong southwest to westerly flow combined with a large tidal range will create a Moderate to High Rip Risk through Tuesday night, with a higher risk on our Florida beaches. The Rip Risk will ease by the end of the week to a Low as the onshore flow decreases and tidal cycles shrinks. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions will are expected through the period outside of heavier showers and storms. Confidence in any storms over coastal counties has decreased some for this afternoon, but expect numerous to widespread activity over the interior. Any stronger cells may be accompanied by brief periods of gusty winds and drops to MVFR or lower cigs/visbys. There is also low to medium confidence in MVFR or lower cigs developing across portions of the interior on Wednesday morning, but not quite as widespread as this morning. West- southwesterly winds around 8-12 knots are expected through the afternoon with a few gusts up to around 20 knots near the coast, diminishing after sunset. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A light to at times moderate, generally westerly flow is expected through the weekend. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 92 73 94 / 10 10 10 0 Pensacola 76 91 78 94 / 20 10 10 10 Destin 78 88 79 91 / 30 20 10 10 Evergreen 68 90 70 91 / 30 20 10 0 Waynesboro 70 89 71 93 / 40 10 20 0 Camden 69 86 70 88 / 30 20 20 10 Crestview 70 92 72 94 / 20 10 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.