textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in place for local area beaches across Alabama and Florida today.

- Daily shower/storm chances will persist today through the week, with an increase in afternoon coverage on Thursday. Waterspouts will be possible over the Gulf waters mainly during the morning hours each day.

- Heat index values near 100 trend higher through this week, potentially reaching 105-108 in some locations by late in the week on into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Starting out overnight tonight looking relatively calm. Main key focus remains to be a tropical low, spinning roughly 125 miles south of SE LA with associated ongoing convection near/around the center via GOES-16 IR trends. Comparably, GOES-16 total PW shows ample, anonymously high PW airmass locked in place across the coastal/marine areas ranging 2.0-2.2". A thin band of upper-level cirrus from central LA, east to southern MS/AL/GA reflects the delineation of weak NE flow helping to press drier tropospheric air down into the SE, while at the surface, today we'll see a bit more unidirectional easterly to east-southeasterly flow at play with the proximity of the surface low being farther away. The result will be another developing landbreeze to act as a focus/enhancement for nearshore scattered showers/storms in the morning hours. Brief look at waterspout parameters reveals favorable, weak 0-1km Bulk Shear combined with plenty of low-level moisture to support another risk for morning waterspouts. Meanwhile, ample sfc diurnal heating will, combined with subtle seabreeze confluence near the coast to support a few shallow scattered showers or storms, primarily in the afternoon/evening hours, generally similar to what we saw yesterday with showers riding outflow boundaries to the west at around 20-30mph given persistent low to mid-level unidirectional easterly flow.

Tuesday through the rest of the week ahead, the pattern will continue very unchanged day-to-day and remain very summer-like. Highs build somewhat into the mid 90's, but daily afternoon mixing dewpoints into the low 70's/upper 60's helping to prevent afternoon heat indices from reaching heat advisory or greater. Still seeing subtle reflections of a weak impulse/disturbance riding west across the northern Gulf coast on Thursday, along the southern periphery of the ridge anchored to our north. Weak PVA/ascent will likely aid in support for a greater uptick in convective coverage on Thursday, which NBM POPs support ranging 50-70% in the afternoon hours.

Going into next weekend, still seeing indications of the ridge over the Mid-MS valley region to retrograde slightly into the central Plains. The degree of which, and amplitude of eventual deep central US ridging will reflect how deep east-coast troughing can build in, thus allowing subtle impulses to drive SSE into the southeastern US. Cluster analysis indicates relatively good alignment in position/strength of the building anomalously strong ridge over the central US, but what remains lower confidence is the depth/degree of the east coast trough. Will keep an eye on how this plays out. KLG

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon, mainly over coastal counties. Expect brief reductions in visibilites and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Rain chances lower by the evening hours. Light easterly winds this morning turn more southeasterly by the afternoon. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A low pressure center located about 125 miles south of southeastern Louisiana will continue to drift west and move into the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast Tuesday or Tuesday night. This system has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm before moving inland. Otherwise, a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail over the forecast area through Friday with around 2-3ft waves/seas persisting. Waterspouts will be possible each day mainly during the morning hours. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 90 74 91 73 / 40 20 60 10 Pensacola 89 76 90 76 / 30 20 40 20 Destin 89 77 90 77 / 30 20 40 20 Evergreen 93 72 95 70 / 10 10 20 10 Waynesboro 94 73 96 71 / 10 10 20 0 Camden 93 73 95 72 / 10 0 10 0 Crestview 92 72 93 72 / 30 20 40 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.