textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Hot and humid conditions persist through the weekend with afternoon heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees.

- A MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue through early next week for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, becoming a HIGH risk by Wednesday.

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly for early to mid next week bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Looking at the current package, the KMOB radar is showing bands of light showers over the northern Gulf. Nothing serious at this time, though conditions remain good for classic waterspouts to form over Gulf protected waters. Otherwise, everything is on track with no updates needed at this time. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Heat and humidity will persist through the weekend with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values topping out in the 100-105 range both afternoons. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper 70s near the coast, providing little relief.

As the upper ridge begins to weaken and moisture increases, somewhat greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon, especially along the advancing sea breeze boundary and over the interior. Latest CAM guidance suggests lower overall coverage of showers and storms on Sunday, likely due to lack of forcing and a weak capping inversion.

Rain and thunderstorm chances begin to increase substantially on Monday as a deep tropical air mass settles into the area and ridging becomes suppressed to the southeast by a deepening large-scale trough. Storms appear most likely over the interior on Monday, eventually spreading to the coast by Tuesday as a cold front pushes south into the area and stalls. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate PWATs exceeding 2.25 inches across portions of the area Monday into Tuesday, surpassing the 99th percentile of climatology. Combined with boundary-parallel storm motions, training convection may develop and produce localized flash flooding. The location of the stalled boundary will ultimately determine where the heaviest rainfall occurs. The WPC has placed the northwestern portion of the forecast area under a slight risk of excessive rainfall on Monday, with nearly the entire area included in a slight risk for Tuesday. The heavy rain and flash flood potential will likely continue into Wednesday for portions of the area before forecast confidence decreases. Details regarding the heavy rain and flash flood threat will be refined as confidence increases. On the bright side, the rainfall and increased cloud cover will provide at least temporary relief from the heat with many spots likely remaining the 70s on Tuesday.

A MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue at all area beaches through early next week. Onshore flow is expected to strengthen by the middle of next week, resulting in a HIGH risk of rip currents by Wednesday. JGC/98

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

General VFR conditions expected over the forecast area with local drops to IFR due to fog. Am expecting these drops to be few and far between. Isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday will again bring local drops in conditions, mainly to low end MVFR. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A diurnal pattern of light westerly to northwesterly flow in the morning and southwesterly flow during the afternoon and evening is expected this weekend. A moderate southwest flow early next week should gradually veer to more southerly by midweek with an increasing onshore component. Rain and thunderstorm chances will also be on the increase next week. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near and around thunderstorms. 98/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 74 94 77 / 30 10 10 30 Pensacola 92 79 93 79 / 30 10 20 30 Destin 89 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 20 Evergreen 94 75 94 75 / 40 20 10 40 Waynesboro 92 74 94 74 / 30 10 10 60 Camden 93 75 92 73 / 30 10 20 50 Crestview 95 74 95 76 / 50 10 30 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.