textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Patchy dense fog is possible the next several nights.

- Temperatures remain well above normal for the next 7-10 days. High temperatures will be near record territory, but will likely stay just below the records this week.

- Rip current risk remains MODERATE through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Now through Wednesday...

An upper level ridge that has built north over the eastern Conus shifts east as a series of upper level shortwaves move east over the northern half of the Conus, becoming a semi organized upper high over the Caribbean. A surface ridge that has built west over the Southeast in response to the upper ridge becomes better organized. A relatively dry airmass over the forecast area and nearby (with precipitable h2o levels around 0.8" this morning) gradually moistens later Thursday through Friday (to around 1.5") as the upper high/ridge shifts off the Atlantic seaboard. Better moisture return has been better west of the forecast area through the week, which shifts east closer to the forecast area into the end of the week. Showers return for Friday, with higher PoPs over the western border of the forecast area. Enough instability is present for thunderstorms to mix in, though limited for strong thunderstorms. Overnight fog development remains a challenge, with stronger winds leading to stratus development as apposed to fog development. The last several days, areas along and west of the Tombigbee River have shown the best chance of fog development. Areas of stratus/fog over the Gulf that have developed last night into this morning have yet to appear in the NBM, so have had to use the latest physical guidance to handle.

Over the weekend into the coming week, the Caribbean upper ridge flattens over the Conus as a series of shortwaves continue to move over the northern Conus. A weak surface front moves south over the Southeast, stalling between the I-20 and I-10 corridors. This front will provide the focus for convection, mainly over northwestern and northern portions of the forecast area. With instability on the increase, more rumblers are expected with the uptick in convection. Wind shear at all levels remains best well west and north of the forecast area. At this time, enough instability nor wind shear for strong to severe storms is not indicated, but will need to monitor, especially if the stronger winds shift south towards the northern Gulf coast as apposed to the Tennessee River Valley.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will bring temperatures well above seasonal norms. Highs in the low to mid 80s, upper 70s along the coast, are expected through the coming weekend. A bit of a drop in high temperatures occurs in the coming week as the subsidence eases a but, but otherwise remain well above seasonal norms. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s tonight rise into the mid to upper 60s for the weekend into the coming week.

Persistent onshore flow increasing onshore swell will be counter balanced by a decreasing tidal cycle into the end of the week, keeping the risk of dangerous Rip Currents at Low to Moderate levels through Friday. As the tidal cycle begins to increase over the weekend into the coming week, the risk of Rip Currents rises to Moderate to at times High in response. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon for most of the region, with the exception of a few areas of low stratus along the coast, where localized IFR conditions are ongoing. At least some of the low stratus should erode by mid-afternoon. IFR or lower ceilings will spread inland from the coast after dark into the entire area, with areas of fog developing once again for the overnight hours. The fog may be locally dense, especially along the coast and over the western Florida Panhandle. Low ceilings will likely be slower to lift in the morning, so IFR conditions may persist through mid-morning before becoming MVFR or greater. A light southeasterly flow will prevail through the period. JGC/MM

MARINE

Issued at 1243 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A surface ridge building west over the Southeast will bring a general light to moderate southeast to southerly flow to area waters through the rest of the week into the coming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 80 60 80 64 / 0 0 10 20 Pensacola 74 60 76 65 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 74 60 73 63 / 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 84 56 84 61 / 0 0 10 10 Waynesboro 83 60 83 63 / 0 0 10 10 Camden 82 58 83 61 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 82 55 81 60 / 0 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.