textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 328 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 - Dangerous heat stress continues to worsen into midweek. Heat Advisories are now in effect for Monday and Tuesday and an Extreme Heat Watch is in effect for our coastal areas on Tuesday.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return midweek for our Florida beaches.

- Daily afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorm chances increase in the middle to latter part of the week, but it will still remain hot.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A large upper high pressure area over the Rockies and central U.S. will persist through midweek as well as the upper trough currently digging southward along the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic. Previous models were showing the upper trough lifting northeastward on Monday, but that is no longer the case as a developing shortwave over southeastern Canada late tonight reinforces the trough through midweek into Thursday. As a result, the upper ridge to our west struggles to build back into our region, but should reach western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday before retreating back westward on Wednesday. A tightening pressure gradient tonight between a surface high pressure area across the western and central Gulf and a surface trough developing along the Eastern Seaboard should bring periods of moderate westerly winds to our Gulf Waters and along the coast tonight into midweek.

Heat Advisories are now in effect for the region Monday and Tuesday for apparent temperatures (heat indices) up to 110 degrees on Monday and up to 112 degrees on Tuesday. In addition, we have issued an Extreme Heat Watch for our coastal for Tuesday for potentially dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 115 possible. There will be no overnight relief from the heat as lows tonight will be around 5-8 degrees above normal, increasing to 7-10 degrees above normal by Tuesday night. Another Heat Advisory will likely be required on Wednesday.

We are expecting high temperatures to be near or at least tie record highs. Below are the current record high temperatures (and dates) for the Mobile and Pensacola areas along with our latest forecast:

Monday, July 27

Mobile Record High: 99 (1968) / Forecast: 97 Pensacola Record High: 98 (1970) / Forecast: 98

Tuesday, July 28

Mobile Record High: 100 (1968) / Forecast: 100 Pensacola Record High: 98 (1993) / Forecast: 99

Wednesday, July 29

Mobile Record High: 100 (1877) / Forecast: 98 Pensacola Record High: 100 (1986) / Forecast: 97

There is a 20-40% chance of showers and storms mainly east of the Tombigbee River from late Monday morning until midnight as convection attempts to overcome a weak capping inversion centered around 700 mb. Occasional strong storms are possible as mixed layer instability values approach 2500-3000 j/kg. Dry conditions follow for Tuesday outside of spotty afternoon showers developing along a sea-breeze. Wednesday is starting to look interesting with regards to severe weather potential as storms rapidly develop around mid afternoon as the ridge moves westward, resulting in weakness aloft. We are also anticipating upper difluence aloft and mixed layer instability values approaching 3000-4000 j/kg. It is still too early to determine how widespread the severe weather threat could be, but the strongest storms may have the potential of damaging surface winds and large hail. We will continue to monitor the situation in the coming days. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots expected over most of the forecast area. Winds closer to the coast will see a shift in afternoon winds to more south to southwesterly as a seabreeze develops along the coast and moves inland. /16

MARINE

Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution over the Gulf tonight into Monday for winds of 15-20 knots. A diurnal wind pattern is expected early in the week with a light to moderate northwesterly flow early each morning turning westerly to occasionally southwesterly through the afternoon and evening. A solid a light to moderate westerly flow becomes established the latter half of the week. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 97 77 100 / 0 10 10 10 Pensacola 79 98 80 99 / 10 10 20 10 Destin 81 94 81 95 / 10 30 20 10 Evergreen 75 96 75 98 / 10 20 20 10 Waynesboro 76 99 76 100 / 10 10 10 0 Camden 76 95 76 98 / 0 30 20 0 Crestview 76 99 77 99 / 10 40 20 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ALZ051>053-055- 056-059-060-261>266.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261- 262.

Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for ALZ263>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206.

Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.