textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 - Temperatures will continue to rise through the weekend into early next week. Forecast heat indices in the 100 to 107 range this weekend and 105 to 111 next week for portions of the area.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday afternoon into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A deep layer ridge of high pressure will slowly drift westward across the north central Gulf through the weekend. Meanwhile, a weak upper low will drift northwestward in the eastern Gulf through early next week. Some slow development is possible with this system and NHC has upped the formation chances to 30%. Models continue to struggle with whether the trough over the Mid- Atlantic pulls it northeast or it moves westward under the influence of northeasterly flow from the upper ridge. We will continue to monitor this system and provide updates through the weekend.

Increased moisture from this system will bring higher moisture levels to the region with precipitable water values climbing to around 2 inches by Saturday afternoon. This will bring higher rain chances to the area by Saturday afternoon through Sunday, especially across eastern portions of the area. Rain chances early next week remain uncertain due to the eventual motion of the Gulf system and how much moisture gets pulled into the area. Rain chances decrease through the middle of next week as the upper ridge expands back to the east with increased mid/upper level subsidence.

Above normal temperatures will occur through early next week, with highs in the lower to middle 90s today and Saturday, warming into the middle and upper 90s through at least the middle of next week. The higher moisture levels combined with increased temperatures will lead to increasing heat stress. Heat Index values will climb into the 100 to 107 range this weekend and 105 to 111 or higher through at least the middle of next week. A Heat Advisory will likely be required with Excessive Heat products possible as well for parts of the area. /13

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Northerly to northwesterly winds of around 5-10 knots today, with occasional gusts to around 15-20 knots, will become more light and variable this evening and into the overnight hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

High pressure will continue to move west across the northern Gulf through the weekend. This will maintain a light to occasionally moderate west to northwest flow through early next week. Seas will generally 1 to 2 feet. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 95 75 96 / 10 40 30 40 Pensacola 79 95 78 95 / 0 60 50 50 Destin 79 93 79 92 / 10 60 60 70 Evergreen 74 94 73 94 / 10 50 40 50 Waynesboro 75 95 75 97 / 10 20 20 20 Camden 74 93 74 93 / 10 30 30 30 Crestview 75 95 74 95 / 10 60 60 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.