textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 654 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon this week. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Hot conditions continue, with heat indices topping out at around 102-107 degrees each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough over the eastern CONUS, with strong ridging over the west. This places the forecast area in northwest flow aloft, keeping a relatively active pattern in place through the next few days. Currently, an MCS that developed early this morning is quickly surging southward, as a weak shortwave moves around the base of the trough. Meanwhile, additional weak shortwaves are likely to continue to traverse the area, with ample moisture in place to help aid scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. One thing we'll have to watch is the trajectory of the current MCS and the potential for outflows from these storms to linger into the afternoon. This, combined with the afternoon seabreeze, will bring more numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area by the end of the day. Like in previous days, strong winds up to 60 mph and locally heavy rain are possible in these storms.

This pattern will persist through much of the week, with northwest flow aloft keeping scattered showers in the forecast through Wednesday. Little in the way of surface forcing exists, and with very little shear, expect disorganized thunderstorms during the afternoon. As has been the case, any storm that does develop will be capable of producing strong winds and heavy rain. Thursday will see a greater coverage of thunderstorms as the trough amplifies and digs southward and into the forecast area. The forcing associated with this trough will be enough to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances during the afternoon as daytime heating aids in convective initiation. The trough will remain in place through Friday, with another day of numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Model consensus diverges quite a bit after Friday, with the GFS closing a low at the base of the trough over the northern Gulf and the ECMWF bringing strong upper ridging for the weekend.

In terms of temperatures through the period, it's going to remain hot. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s today and Tuesday, with lows falling into the lower 70s. A greater coverage of clouds and rain will keep highs in the lower 90s for the latter part of the work week. /73

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across much of the local area at issuance time. Lingering rainfall over portions of northwest Florida will diminish over the next hour or so. For tonight, some patchy fog may attempt to develop over interior portions of south central Alabama, bringing localized reductions in visibilities and ceilings to IFR or lower. Any fog that does manage to develop will dissipate a little after sunrise. Another round of scattered showers and storms is possible Tuesday afternoon. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. A few strong storms capable of producing gusty, erratic winds cannot be ruled out. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 92 73 93 / 30 50 10 60 Pensacola 76 91 77 91 / 40 50 10 60 Destin 77 89 78 89 / 30 40 30 40 Evergreen 71 95 71 96 / 20 40 10 50 Waynesboro 72 95 73 97 / 20 30 20 40 Camden 72 94 72 94 / 10 10 10 20 Crestview 71 94 71 94 / 30 50 20 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.