textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- A line of thunderstorms, some severe moves east of I-65 including the northwest Florida Panhandle through early morning. - High risk of rip currents for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

- Strong marine winds set up overnight into Thursday evening creating hazardous conditions for small craft operators.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The convective line, which has a history of damaging winds, will advance east of the I-65 corridor including the northwest Florida Panhandle during the pre-dawn hours. Forecasters are shaving off the western portions of tornado watch 49 following the line's passage. The overall radar representation of the line has shown some degradation with eastward advance over the past hour or two. Even so, thermodynamic and kinematic profiles still support a severe weather threat along and east of the line and forecasters are noting intense lightning in portions of the line moving across our interior northeast counties. Following the line, a large area of residual and yet beneficial light to moderate rains will be moving through before ending by around daybreak give or take an hour or two. /10

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Southern stream upper level storm system ejects across the Lower MS River Valley overnight. Along with it, a cold front approaches from the west sending a convective squall line, potentially severe in areas producing swaths of damaging winds up to/excess of 70 mph and perhaps a few strong tornadoes, rapidly eastward over the local area overnight. Timing of the line remains unchanged, with the severe weather threat ending before sunrise Thursday AM. The front makes passage by daybreak, bringing wind shift, strengthening north to northwest flow in its wake, drier and much cooler and well below normal temperatures Thursday with daytime highs in the lower 60's interior and mid/upper 60's coast. Thursday night, lows break into the upper 30s interior to mid 40's coast. We may need to issue a Frost Advisory for our inland areas as recent temperatures have been well above normal and Spring gardens are likely seeing tender growth emerging. The next few days will be rain-free as axis of high pressure settles across the area. Daily highs/lows moderating Friday and Saturday. May begin to see a small chance of rain returning Sunday, with the better chance perhaps by Sunday night as a large upper trough is expected to dig south over the entire eastern CONUS, followed by the passage of a strong cold front Monday. Temperatures early next week expected to dive to well below normal over the interior with mid 50's for highs Monday and around 15 degrees below climo. 55 to 60 area-wide Tuesday and 12-17 degrees below normal. Coldest night next week is Monday night with the potential for freezing over the interior and mid/upper 30s coast.

Beach Forecast: A HIGH risk of dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents sets up after midnight through Thursday before settling back to a LOW risk by Friday through the weekend. Surf heights up to four feet are also likely prior to the passage of the cold front. /10

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Convective line moves east over the terminals 12.06-10Z bringing reductions to cigs/vsbys to IFR levels at times. Strong and erratic convective wind gusts will be likely ahead of the line. Northwest to northerly winds develop before daybreak with gusts 25 to 30 kts which looks to continue thru the day Thu. Cigs begin to scatter out mid to late AM. /10

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Southerly to southwesterly winds increase through midnight ahead of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms approaching from the west. Special Marine Warnings will likely be required for convective wind gusts in excess of 36 kts. A few tornadoes possible. This line of storms is expected to pass over the marine area after midnight through daybreak Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from overnight tonight into Thursday evening as winds turn northerly in the wake of a strong cold front. Seas building and highest beyond 20 NM at 5 to 7' due to the established northerly fetch. Light easterly flow becomes established Friday through Saturday morning, followed by a light onshore flow through the remainder of the weekend with seas trending lower. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 42 71 49 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 66 47 67 51 / 20 0 0 0 Destin 69 49 66 54 / 40 0 0 0 Evergreen 64 38 73 43 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 62 39 72 45 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 61 38 71 43 / 10 0 0 0 Crestview 68 39 72 45 / 40 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.