textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Numerous to widespread daytime thunderstorms will continue through the Memorial Day weekend into Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall is likely along and west of I-65 where additional widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, locally as high as 6 to 8 inches, will occur.

- A High risk for strong, potentially life threatening rip currents will occur through tonight, followed by a Moderate risk Sunday and Memorial day. A High risk for strong, potentially life threatening rip currents will likely return Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Current radar is detecting numerous showers and thunderstorms just north of the Highway-84 corridor moving northward at around 30 mph. Some of the stronger storms exhibit winds aloft up to 55 knots, so additional Special Weather Statements and perhaps a Severe Thunderstorm Warning or two will be required. CAMs are also indicting a secondary band developing behind this one by late afternoon that will continue through mid-evening that will need to be closely monitored. A continuous fetch of impulses and shortwave energy will continue to move in a deep southwesterly flow along the eastern periphery of a southern plains trough. This will primarily affect our area along and west of I-65 through the Memorial Day weekend into Tuesday as atmospheric moisture remains moderate with PWATs generally around 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Highest rain chances will occur during the daytime and early evening hours coinciding with decreasing stability from diurnal heating. With more than sufficient environmental moisture in place, the combination of ascent provided by the passage of the series of upper level impulses, the risk of locally heavy rains and instances of flooding continues. In fact, the Day Two Excessive Rain Outlook (ERO) Slight Risk area has been expanded eastward include our southeast Mississippi zones, and Day Three ERO will include most of our warning area with the exception of our far eastern zones.

Flash Flooding Potential...

We continue to have high confidence on the potential of localize flash flooding over the Memorial Day weekend into Tuesday along and west of I-65. Heavy rainfall is possible with additional widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, locally as high as 6 to 8 inches. Instances of flash flooding will occur where banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms with high precipitation rates occur. For now, we will hold off on issuing any flash flood watches as recovery times between the daytime events should allow for waters to recede, or until our confidence on placement of the banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms increases.

Beach Forecast: A High risk for strong, potentially life threatening rip currents will occur through tonight, followed by a Moderate risk Sunday and Memorial day. A High risk for strong, potentially life threatening rip currents will likely return Tuesday into Wednesday. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are in place across much of the local area at issuance time, although some localized MVFR ceilings linger along the coast. Overall, VFR conditions should remain prevalent through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Scattered showers and storms will also continue to develop throughout the afternoon, primarily north of I-10. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Rain chances are expected to decrease throughout the evening hours. MVFR ceilings may return late tonight and into Sunday morning. Southerly winds at around 10 knots will become more light and variable tonight. /96

MARINE

Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through this weekend and into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 85 71 82 / 30 80 70 90 Pensacola 74 85 74 83 / 20 50 50 80 Destin 74 84 74 84 / 10 40 30 70 Evergreen 69 87 70 84 / 30 70 30 90 Waynesboro 68 83 69 80 / 40 90 70 90 Camden 68 84 68 82 / 40 80 50 90 Crestview 70 89 71 87 / 20 60 20 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.