textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the rest of the week.

- Heat indices will trend upward through mid week, reaching around 100-107 degrees Thursday through the weekend.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents is expected to develop at area beaches Friday into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The forecast is on track with no changes planned at the moment. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

A closed upper-level low centered over north Georgia will continue to weaken while lifting northward today, eventually becoming absorbed into the northern stream by late tonight. This will leave the area under a weak steering flow regime today as we are sandwiched between the Subtropical High off the East Coast and the Monsoon Ridge over the Desert Southwest. This pattern will allow the sea breeze to push farther inland this afternoon, bringing an increase in low-level moisture. Isolated to scattered PoPs (15-35%) are forecast generally along and just north of the I-10 corridor, where sea breeze convergence is most likely to lead to convective initiation. The subsidence inversion around 700 mb that subdued any deep convection over the last two days will begin to weaken, potentially allowing for a few thunderstorms this afternoon. With lingering dry air above 700 mb and DCAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg in spots, any thunderstorms that can manage to develop may produce localized strong downburst winds. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s today, with an increase in humidity bringing heat index values back into the triple digits (100-104 range) in some spots this afternoon, especially across southern portions of the area.

Thursday through Saturday, a southeasterly low-level flow regime becomes established as the Subtropical High expands westward into the Southeast states. This will continue to transport additional moisture northward while allowing the sea breeze to advance inland each afternoon. The mid-level capping inversion continues to lift/weaken Thursday and should erode completely by Friday, supporting greater lightning potential with any afternoon convection. Rain chances remain generally in the 20-40% range each day, although guidance is inconsistent on where the greatest coverage will develop each day due to periodic bands of higher and lower PWATs pushing through. Peak afternoon heat indices will continue trending upward, generally ranging from 100-107 degrees starting Thursday, and potentially reaching 108-110 in a few spots by Saturday.

Sunday into early next week, ensemble guidance indicates deeper tropical moisture surging in from the southeast with more widespread PWATs over 2 inches. This should support an uptick in convective coverage, with PoPs increasing into the 40-60% range for Sunday and Monday for most areas. Rain chances may begin to decrease by Tuesday as the main moisture plume exits the area, leaving a more typical summertime pattern in its wake. Heat indices will likely remain in the 100-107 range.

Beach Forecast... A Low risk of rip currents exists at area beaches today and Thursday. As onshore flow strengthens late in the week, a Moderate risk of rip currents is expected to develop Friday into the weekend. JGC/98

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Isolated to possibly scattered showers and storms may develop this afternoon mainly over the coastal counties. MVFR conditions will be possible with the stronger showers and storms, and patchy fog will be possible late tonight, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. A southwesterly to southerly flow at 5-10 knots develops today then becomes light and variable this evening. /29

MARINE

Issued at 231 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

General westerly winds become southwesterly this afternoon with a southeasterly flow developing on Thursday. An easterly to southeasterly flow develops by Friday then becomes predominately southeasterly by Sunday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 93 73 92 73 / 20 10 30 0 Pensacola 91 77 90 77 / 20 10 10 10 Destin 90 79 89 78 / 10 0 10 10 Evergreen 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 Waynesboro 97 73 96 70 / 0 10 30 10 Camden 91 73 91 73 / 0 0 20 10 Crestview 93 72 93 72 / 30 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.