textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Afternoon heat indices remain in the 101 to 107 through weekend, with localized spots potentially reaching around 110.

- Coverage of storms increase Sunday through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized flooding, is possible.

- A High risk of rip currents sets up along the Northwest Florida beaches Monday and Tuesday. A moderate risk continues for the remainder of area beaches through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

We will be moving into a transition period from typical central Gulf coast July thunderstorms to a more anomalously wet pattern to close out the weekend and opening up the new week. Bouts of heavy rain possible early next week. A look at the upper level height field indicates a large H20 upper low/gyre over the southern Bahamas with a westward spoke extending into the eastern Gulf. With this feature near-by along with more than sufficient deep layer moisture, PWAT's 1.8 to 2.0" more aligned over the southern half of the local area, and instability results in scattered storms this afternoon. These look to be aligned generally south of a line from Andalusia AL to New Augusta MS through the afternoon. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of gusty surface winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Storms could linger into the evening but becoming less in coverage with time.

The pattern begins to transition more so late tonight into Sunday as a positively tilted upper trough extending from southeast Canada to the middle Mississippi Valley begins to sink southward and will have more of an effect on our region. While the northern half of the trough moves eastward over the western Atlantic, the southern half of the trough in the form of a shortwave with a cutoff upper low pressure area over the Ohio Valley becomes detached and migrates slowly southward to southwestward over the Tennessee Valley by noon on Monday. This upper-level feature will then retrograde more westward across the Mid-South and toward the southern plains Monday night through Tuesday under a large elongated upper high pressure area situated over much of the northern U.S. At the surface, an east to west quasi-stationary front draped from the southern Plains across the DelMarVA this weekend settles southward into the Lower MS to across the TN Valley early next week but looks to stall in place thereafter. South of the boundary, the environment will be deeply moist and unstable with forcing along convective outflows being enhanced further by larger scale ascent offered from aloft with southward approach of trough. How far south the front gets is difficult to determine due to convective outflow contamination/rain induced "cold pools". With latest guidance continuing to indicate PWAT's increasing to a range of 2.0 to 2.3" Sunday through Tuesday, increased coverage of showers and storms are favored each day, with the potential for localized flooding. WPC has our entire area outlooked for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall not only on Sunday but for Monday and Tuesday as well. A small Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall is outlooked along the coastal counties for Monday. It is possible that we could see a corridor of 3 to 6" of rainfall for this event if training of slow-moving. efficient rain rate producing storms are able to set up across the area. Otherwise, we would anticipate a general 1 to 3" of rainfall across the forecast area. Expect to resume to typical mid-July weather through the latter half of the week.

High temperatures ranging 89 to 93 most areas Sunday will not be too far from climo with heat indices ranging 101-107 degrees with isolated short duration instances as high as around 110 degrees. Highs to trend more below normal into the mid to upper 80's the first half of next week due to increase cloud and rain coverage. Highs rebound back into the lower to mid 90's the latter half of the period. Lows tonight to be about 4 to 9 degrees above normal on average with middle 70s inland, upper 70s for our coastal communities, to around 80 degrees at the beaches. Lows trend in lower to mid 70's through middle of next week.

There are indications in the latest rip current guidance that our Florida beaches will be breaking into the lower end High risk categories Monday and Tuesday. Thus, have upgraded the moderate in these areas to a High Risk. Remainder of area beaches are held at moderate risk. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF cycle, outside of any storms. Isolated to scattered storms continue to develop through the afternoon, which will locally reduce flight categories and produce gusty, erratic winds at times. Winds generally remain out of the southeast early this afternoon before turning more southerly to southwesterly around 10 knots by late afternoon. Winds become light and variable after midnight. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A generally light southwest flow becomes light to moderate on Sunday. A more moderate westerly flow sets up Monday. Light to occasionally moderate westerly flow prevails through the remainder of the week. Seas look to remain 2 to 3 feet in height into early next week, potentially reaching 4 feet late Monday. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 92 74 86 / 20 70 70 90 Pensacola 80 93 77 89 / 20 60 80 80 Destin 81 91 78 88 / 20 50 90 90 Evergreen 74 92 72 86 / 10 60 60 90 Waynesboro 75 92 72 86 / 10 70 70 80 Camden 75 89 71 85 / 10 80 80 70 Crestview 75 93 73 88 / 20 70 70 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Wednesday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.