textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms are possible north of US-84 on Tuesday and Wednesday, with little or no impacts expected.

- A cold front will move through the region towards the end of the week, bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the area for the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather for Tuesday afternoon/night for the western half of the Southeast. A series of shortwaves move over the region. Coincident with the shortwave is a modest upper jet, bringing decent upper subsidence. Add in decent instability (MUcapes in the 2000-2500J/kg) and wind shear (Bulk Shear 35kts+ north of Highway 84). Guidance is conservative with low level winds, and even with directional shifting of winds, helicities are low, limiting any spinners. Damaging winds and large hail ( with mid level lapse rates around 7.5C) are the primary threats. Looking strictly at the lines, the Marginal Risk covers the northwestern counties of the forecast area. Will need to monitor, with any shifting of the path of the shortwaves/upper jets increasing or decreasing the risk of severe storms.

Looking at the Rip Risk, a generally Low Risk of dangerous rip currents is expected, the exception is Wednesday as winds shift to easterly`and increase for a short period. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Clear skies, light winds and plenty of low level moisture will allow patchy fog to develop late tonight. The fog could become dense in spots. The fog will quickly clear Monday morning. An upper level ridge will build over the area today, leading to dry conditions and warmer temps. Highs today will be in the mid and upper 80s for most areas north of I-10, coastal locations will remain in the low 80s. The ridge will weaken on Tuesday as a large trough moves across the plains. This will send a cold front into the southeast states on Tuesday. This front will stall north of the area through Wednesday. Shortwaves ridging along this boundary will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms across the northern portions of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. The front finally gets pushed southward into our area Wednesday night as a stronger shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley. This will send a line of showers and thunderstorms through the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Another cold front moves through the area Friday night into Saturday bringing more showers and thunderstorms to the area. A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area behind the front for the weekend. /13

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

VFR conditions with respect to CIGs expected through the forecast. Drops in VISBYs to IFR levels are possible towards sunrise, with guidance placing the best chance of drops being west of the Mobile River. Any fog developing overnight will quickly mix out after sunrise. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly north of Highway 84. A seabreeze is expected to develop along the coast this afternoon, increasing southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots to 10 to 15 knots as it moves inland. Winds will lighten overnight, to 5 knots or less, with fog development again possible close to the end of the forecast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will last into Wednesday, shifting to offshore Wednesday into Wednesday night as a weak front moves across area coastal waters. Winds shift to easterly through the latter half of the week a surface low develops along the stalled front and moves east over area waters. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 86 66 84 67 / 0 0 10 10 Pensacola 81 68 80 69 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 80 68 79 69 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 89 62 88 64 / 10 0 10 30 Waynesboro 89 65 87 65 / 10 10 30 40 Camden 87 64 86 64 / 10 10 40 50 Crestview 89 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.