textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 102 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Patchy dense fog is possible overnight into the pre-dawn hours over the next several nights.

- Temperatures remain well above normal for the next 7 days. High temperatures will be near record territory, but will likely stay just below the records this week.

- HIGH rip current risk Friday and Saturday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Ridging remains in control of the weather through the first half of the weekend. A persistent onshore flow continues in this pattern as the area remains on the western edge of a surface high over the western Atlantic. Moisture levels gradually increase in the southerly flow with PWATs of 1.5+ inches streaming into the area by Friday. This pattern will promote the development of patchy dense fog in the overnight and pre-dawn hours, especially across the southern portion of the area. While isolated showers are possible by late this afternoon (mainly across south-central Alabama), most of the area will remain dry today. Rain chances increase across the western half of the area as we head into Friday with scattered to numerous showers and storms throughout the afternoon. There will be ample instability, but the shear is lacking on Friday, so we do not anticipate much more than an occasional strong storm in the afternoon hours in this environment.

As we head into the weekend, an upper level low pinches off from a series of shortwaves pivoting through the trough well to our west. A front will slowly approach the region from the northwest over the weekend, but will likely stall or wash out before making it to our area (thanks partially to the nearby ridge). A cluster or line of storms associated with the front will meander into our area over the weekend. We don't expect the weekend to be a wash out, but there will be storms in the area, especially west of I-65. The environment does not look overly robust, so we do not anticipate severe storms at this time. This aforementioned upper level low retrogrades toward Baja California over the weekend and eventually ejects eastward in the early to middle part of next week. The next chance for storms will be in the latter part of next week, associated with the aforementioned feature.

Beach Forecast - MODERATE risk for rip currents continues through today with a HIGH risk on Friday and Saturday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Persistent onshore flow may lead to the HIGH risk being extended deeper into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance continues to indicate a high-end MODERATE risk late Saturday into Sunday. We will continue to monitor trends as any further increase in winds will likely lead to a bump in the rip current risk late in the weekend. 07/mb

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions prevail at the terminals as of 05z. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected in the pre-dawn hours, especially near the coast. Ceilings and visibility will quickly lift by 13z with MVFR ceilings likely persisting through at least mid morning at the terminals. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 102 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

No significant marine impacts expected other than the low-end potential for patchy fog close to the coastline in the overnight and early morning hours for the next several days. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 80 65 79 65 / 10 20 50 10 Pensacola 75 65 76 66 / 10 10 20 10 Destin 72 63 73 63 / 10 10 20 0 Evergreen 84 60 83 61 / 20 10 40 0 Waynesboro 83 64 80 65 / 0 10 60 10 Camden 82 62 82 63 / 10 10 50 0 Crestview 81 60 82 60 / 20 10 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.