textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through Tuesday night. Surf heights up to 5 feet are expected through Tuesday, with rough surf expected.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through midweek.

- A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday into Thursday, with a few periods of showers and thunderstorms possible across the area. The threat for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1043 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rather calm night tonight looking at observational trends and recent GOES-16 IR/WV and Night Microphysics. Only item to mention is patchy upper-level clouds, with greater coverage increasing over the NW Gulf in association with a deepening upper-level low over the central US, accelerating upper-level moisture northeast over the Mexican Plateau. Meanwhile at the surface, downstream divergence ahead of the eastward drifting trough has resulted in surface low genesis over northern OK/southern KS, with a cold front draped south into north-central Texas where a few strong to severe storms continue. This will be the main focus in the short-term as this system approaches our area, so let's dive right into it!

We'll be seeing many notable changes over the next 12-24 hours in regards to the evolution in the system to our west. Beginning aloft, the greatest PVA/vorticity loaded at the apex of the shortwave impulse slingshots northeast, allowing in most jet dynamics/synoptic- scale lift to eject quickly towards the Midwest along with the occluding surface low. This evolution is highly important in regards to what we'll experience here locally, as now we're within the depths of the convection allowing model time windows, and are acquiring a better idea of timing/windows and subtle threats possible.

That aside, a pretty interesting feature in the western Gulf; lingering energy and broad cyclonic rotation aloft from a subtle inverted trough, responsible for recent heavy rains over the Florida Peninsula retrograding west, slowly. Can see this spin well on WV/IR trends tonight, and reflected in SPC Mesoanalysis/RAP trends. Zooming in towards the surface, we'll continue to see increasing southeasterly gradient surface winds offshore, around the northern apex of the surface trough. The combination of the approaching central US system and southerly moisture advection off the Gulf tries to amplify a small-scale zone of SE to NW oriented confluence banding, resulting in bands of showers and a few storms late Tuesday morning thru the afternoon and evening. These could need to be watched. Small-scale banding like this can result in a very localized enhancement of shear/surface vorticity, when interacting with shallow cells can uptick the risk for a few waterspouts or even an isolated tornado. Nothing substantial, by all means and conditional risk is rather low, but can sometimes be a curve ball and will need monitoring.

Otherwise, this activity drapes east overnight, mainly east of I-65 and again, will continue to monitor as the mesoscale confluence banding orients more due south to due north thanks to deepening unidirectional low-level southerly flow taking over in response to the trough approaching. We could see a brief lull in rain chances overnight into early Wednesday, but still can't rule out periods of light drizzle at times. Meanwhile going later into the day, the front approaches and as mentioned earlier with the better/greater jet dynamics eject well north away from the area, the only lift left is mainly frontogenetic and supported with subtle instability for a broken line of showers/few storms at times sweeping slowly west to east. Will monitor far northern counties where a few gusty bands on radar can't be ruled out along the line, but coverage will thin out the closer you get to the coast.

Thereafter going into Wednesday night and Thursday, will watch the front slow down as it aligns parallel to H5 flow aloft, resulting in almost no large-scale ascent left over than weak frontogenetic lift but likely will rain out with time as showers slowly drift into eastern areas (south-central AL/NW Florida) Wednesday night. Aloft, we're between impulses with quasi-zontal flow persisting, then the next shortwave impulse dives into the central US. With the front lingering around, will have to keep an mention of a few showers at times through Thursday, as any subtle frontogenetic lift lingering combined with destabilization during the day could support a few isolated showers at times. PoP's coming in from the recent 01Z NBM are a tad low, in the 10-20% range with better chances over eastern areas, which makes sense, but would not be surprised to see this increase some over the next few days but should remain rather isolated regardless.

Best rain chances will return again on Friday as the impulse over the central US dives southeast into our area, re-amplifying associated PVA/lift for more widespread showers at times. Nothing impactful standing out with guidance, and quickly gets a push out of here just in time for the weekend.

The weekend is looking nice and cooler overall as ridging amplifies in the west-central US owing in downstream convergence aloft and surface high to dive into the region. Lows in the 30's can't be ruled out for northern parts of the area Sunday thru Tuesday, perhaps even tapping into the mid to low 30's for northern areas Tuesday morning once winds relax under the surface high and we're within the window of maximized radiational cooling - some of the coldest air so far this season. Something we'll look closer at in the coming days. KLG

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at issuance time. Throughout the remainder of the night, ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR or IFR and will linger through the morning hours. Ceilings may briefly improve by the afternoon hours for some spots. Rain chances, however, will be on the increase throughout the day, with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected by the afternoon hours, potentially lingering into the evening. Expect brief reductions in ceilings and visibility in some of the heavier activity. Easterly winds of around 5-10 knots this morning will turn more southeasterly and increase closer to 10-15 knots by the afternoon. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow continues through Tuesday with a tight pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. Winds will shift southeasterly Tuesday night as a system approaches the area from the west. Winds gradually decrease and turn southerly Wednesday, becoming offshore Wednesday night through the weekend. Seas remain near 5-7 feet today and will gradually decrease throughout the week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 80 67 82 / 0 50 60 60 Pensacola 68 79 70 81 / 0 20 70 60 Destin 68 80 70 80 / 0 10 60 70 Evergreen 61 80 64 80 / 0 20 50 90 Waynesboro 61 80 64 80 / 0 30 70 60 Camden 62 78 64 78 / 0 10 60 90 Crestview 63 82 66 81 / 0 20 50 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.