textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Dry weather and near seasonal temperatures much of mid to late week trend well above normal by early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

The very light early evening showers across northwest Florida have dissipated and no additional development will occur through the remainder of the night. The cloudy skies mainly in the form of low stratus over south central Alabama and northwest Florida will expand westward to include much of our forecast area, especially as you get closer to the coast. Temperature forecast is trending as expected with lows still expected to lower to between 57 to 62 degrees inland with middle 60s along the coast. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Front is draped over the northern and central Gulf. The bulk of the radar activity has moved east out of the local area. There are indications from the high resolution short-range ensembles showing scattered showers/perhaps a few storms redeveloping along the I-10 corridor during the course of the afternoon as the back edge of departing low/mid level energy moves through and squeezes out any lingering moisture. Any storms should remain below severe levels. At this time, with the eastward propagation of the upper support from passage of upper trof, the more favorable area of severe weather looks to be positioned over the Florida Peninsula the remainder of the day where are marginal risk is outlooked.

With a short-wave upper ridge of high pressure to advance east of the area and surface high pressure moving east of the Lower MS River Valley, a rain-free weather pattern returns the remainder of the week. Dry weather looks to linger into the weekend.

Highs mostly in the lower to mid 80's the rest of the week will not be too far from mid May normals. Highs warm to a range of 85 to 90 most areas by early half of next week. Lows 57 to 62 interior and lower to mid 60's coast tonight and Wednesday night. Coolest lows this period is Thursday night with numbers lowering to lower to mid 50's east of a line from Waynesboro MS to Crestview FL and some 5 to 10 degrees below normal for mid May these areas. The coolness will be very brief. Thereafter, lows to dramatically moderate to well into the 60's interior to lower 70's coast and well above normal by early next week. /10

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings with areas of IFR ceilings over south central Alabama and northwest Florida will expand westward to include all of our TAF sites situated along the coast this evening. Skies are expected to clear to VFR by mid-morning Wednesday. Light northeasterly winds around 5-10 knots will become northerly Wednesday morning. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Due to a light to occasionally moderate north to northeast flow through tonight, the fetch supports seas ranging 2 to 4 feet through Wednesday morning. Following, winds decrease and seas subside the remainder of the period. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 62 85 63 85 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 64 82 66 84 / 10 0 0 0 Destin 65 82 67 84 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 57 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 61 84 59 82 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 58 81 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 59 84 59 85 / 20 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.