textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- Dry weather expected through the weekend, with rain returning in the coming week.

- Well below normal overnight lows expected tonight. Highs and lows trend warmer and well above normal by early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Forecast remains on track. BB-8

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Through Sunday night...an upper ridge over the Plains shifts to over the eastern Conus, with an upper trough over the Florida Atlantic coast preventing the ridge from shifting east over the Gulf. This upper trough helps to deamplify the ridge over the eastern Conus. A surface high over the eastern Conus shifts south to off the Carolina/Ga/FL coast, before a surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf coast. By Sunday evening, good onshore flow has returned to the northern Gulf coast, especially west of the forecast area (precipitable h20 values rise above 1.8"). A drier airmass (precipitable h20 values below 1.4") over the forecast area has begun to move off. Rainshowers and a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday over areas just west of the forecast area. If the higher moisture values shift east, so will the precipitation, but am expecting any precipitation to remain west of the Miss/Al state line if it does.

Temperatures see a shift through the period, with high temperatures south of I-10 to the coast cooling to the low 80s as cooler flow off the Gulf becomes dominant. Inland from there, high temperatures rise to a few degrees above seasonal norms by Sunday, with mid to upper 80s expected. Low temperatures see the same rise, to mid 60s well inland to around 70 along the coast expected Sunday night.

Monday on, an upper ridge builds north along the East Coast, then deamplifies a bit mid week as a series of upper level shortwave trough pass over/near the Southeast. The surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast shifts north a bit and weakens. Mid/upper level flow shifts to southwesterly, which in combination with the upper ridge weakening, allows the better moisture levels west of the forecast area to shift east to over the forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast area mid week in response. The upper ridge remains in control enough for temperatures to rise to around 5 degrees above seasonal norms by mid week.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, general northerly flow transitioning to weak onshore flow will keep any swell on area beaches low into the weekend, with a Low Risk of rip currents expected. Onshore flow on area beaches becomes more organized over the weekend into the coming week, with a Moderate Risk of rip currents returning Tuesday. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the forecast with light southerly winds becoming light and variable overnight. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Light to occasionally moderate offshore winds switch to onshore by Friday afternoon and continue through early next week. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 80 64 81 68 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 80 64 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 84 53 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 85 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 82 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 86 54 88 61 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.