textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- A Low risk of rip currents today increases to a Moderate risk Wednesday evening and High risk by Thursday for all our local beaches.

- Rain chances substantially increase Thursday into the coming weekend. Numerous showers and storms are expected during this period, with storms capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1047 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Our taste of Fall is quickly coming to an end as we see a pattern change the rest of the week. Today and Wednesday should remain mostly dry, with perhaps an afternoon shower or storm near the coast Wednesday as moisture return begins. Afternoon highs today and tomorrow remain well above normal in the upper 80's to lower 90's, with morning temperatures Wednesday starting in the lower 60's inland and upper 60's nearer the coast. Ample moisture return will be ongoing Wednesday night rapidly increasing dewpoints, which should help to keep lows in the upper 60's to lower 70's which is about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

As we head into late week, we'll see a quick uptrend in chances for rain Thursday through the weekend. This is thanks to deep layer southerly winds bringing in ample tropical moisture off the gulf along with the remnant trough split and several other subtle disturbances rounding the periphery of the ridge. Forecast guidance is fairly robust on overall rain totals Thursday through the weekend, generally depicting widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts, locally higher. The environment will be very favorable for intense rainfall rates with storms. Sampled forecast soundings depict a deep, warm and moist airmass supportive of efficient warm rain processes that will be present across the area along with very high PWATs for this time of year exceeding 2.3 to 2.5 inches. It's still early to pinpoint what areas see higher or lower totals, but given the environment in place I can't rule out some potential for flash flooding, particularly in poor drainage and urban areas that see repeated rounds of storms. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period thanks to an approaching high pressure which will keep skies mostly clear. Generally, winds will be out of the NE over the region before gradually shifting more easterly overnight. Uncertainty with Sea Breeze boundary advancement today will effect general wind direction at and around JKA, though wind speeds should not approach any critical thresholds. /31

MARINE

Issued at 1047 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Light and variable flow continues through today. A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow develops Wednesday, persisting through the weekend. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the weekend. Small Craft should exercise caution beginning late Wednesday night through Friday. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 88 71 87 / 0 20 10 70 Pensacola 71 86 75 85 / 10 20 20 70 Destin 72 86 75 86 / 10 20 30 70 Evergreen 59 91 65 89 / 0 0 0 50 Waynesboro 61 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 50 Camden 60 91 66 89 / 0 0 0 30 Crestview 63 90 68 88 / 0 20 10 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.