textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1147 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

- A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Sunday. Bitterly cold temperatures are expected for Sunday night, and cold weather products may become necessary.

- Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible over our local Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1147 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Looking rather dry through the first half of the weekend as dry northwesterly flow continues into the weekend. Surface high pressure will remain across the deep south with light winds and subsidence across the entire area through Saturday. Temperatures should gradually warm into the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday and Saturday as light southerly flow develops. The overall large scale pattern will remain unchanged into early next week with upper troughing to our northeast and ridging to the west. This pattern will likely amplify on Saturday night into Sunday as a rather potent shortwave dives out of Canada and into the Great Lakes.

This shortwave will result in a rather drastic change as cold arctic air plunges into the deep south Sunday night. Some scattered showers will be possible along the approaching cold front before the gates of the arctic open. Looking at NBM probabilities and things certainly point towards the coldest air of the year. Probabilities of air temperatures less than 20 degrees are floating around 30-50 percent mainly north of highway 84 and probabilities of less than 25 degrees above 50% almost to the immediate coastline. Given the current trends getting colder and colder with each run and the fact that guidance tends to struggle with these shallow arctic airmasses, it is probably a pretty safe bet we will see a round of cold weather products Sunday night into Monday. On top of the cold temperatures we will likely see gusty winds behind the front leading to wind chills in the teens all the way to the coast. Both the air temperatures and wind chills would warrant cold weather advisories at the least and we will have to continue to monitor for the potential for some extreme cold products for wind chills.

The good news is this cooldown is only temporary and things will quickly flip next week as the pattern flattens out and upper ridging begins to build over the eastern US. Expect a gradual warmup through next week as temperatures will rebound into the 70s by Thursday. BB-8

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1147 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Light onshore flow will develop later this afternoon and persist through Saturday. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday through Sunday night. Occasional gusts to gale force are looking more likely over the Gulf waters Sunday night and a Gale watch may be needed in future updates. Winds will relax and swing southeasterly by midweek. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 41 69 52 68 / 0 0 10 10 Pensacola 48 69 54 68 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 50 69 54 69 / 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 35 70 46 69 / 0 0 10 10 Waynesboro 36 66 47 64 / 0 0 10 10 Camden 35 66 45 63 / 0 0 10 10 Crestview 36 70 47 69 / 0 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.