textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- HIGH risk for rip currents through this afternoon. A Moderate to High risk of rip currents is expected through the week.

- Above average temperatures expected through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Now through Monday...

An upper ridge stretching north over the Southeast from over the Gulf shifts east to over the open Atlantic into Tuesday as a series of strong upper level shortwave troughs move east over the western Conus. The upper ridge remains close enough to the Southeast to maintain a surface ridge, which stretches west over the Southeast. The onshore flow will continue to move Gulf moisture inland, with the Lower Mississippi River Valley into western portions of the Southeast seeing the most continuous influx of moisture. The further east one goes over the Southeast, increasing subsidence from the upper ridge decreases the moisture influx, with the result being, that as rain chances increase Tuesday on, the best chance is expected to be over western portions of the forecast area. The increasing moisture and light winds developing overnight will allow for fog development the next few nights. Gulf nearshore water temperatures have risen enough (upper 60s to around 70) that sea fog is not an issue.

A strong upper low passes north of the forecast area, with a weaker shortwave trough moving over the Southeast Sunday night into Monday. Guidance is advertising a cold front crossing the forecast area Sunday night, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass and the period of better rain chances ending Monday.

High temperatures rise to well above seasonal norms last through Saturday, topping out in the low to mid 80s along and north of the I- 10, upper 70s south to the coast. Sunday is a transitional day as cooler air moves over the forecast area behind the front. By Monday, high temperatures around or a bit below seasonal norms are advertised by guidance (70-75). Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected ahead of the coming frontal passage, low to mid 50s behind for Monday night.

Moderate to strong southeast to easterly flow is expected through the week, keeping the swell component high in the Rip Risk equation. Tidal range begins to increase later in the week, helping with the rip risk. The result is a High Risk of Rip currents today dropping into a Moderate for a few days, then rising back to High for the coming weekend. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through early evening at all terminals, except JKA which currently has IFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings will return late this evening as the winds become light. IFR ceilings and visibility are expected during the pre-dawn hours with the main concern for IFR conditions east of I-65. Conditions improve shortly after daybreak on Tuesday. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Light to moderate southeast to southerly winds are expected through the week. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms as convection returns to area waters. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 64 81 64 81 / 10 60 20 60 Pensacola 65 76 66 77 / 0 40 20 40 Destin 63 74 65 75 / 0 30 10 30 Evergreen 58 83 61 84 / 0 40 10 40 Waynesboro 61 82 63 82 / 0 60 10 60 Camden 58 82 61 81 / 0 40 10 50 Crestview 58 82 61 83 / 0 40 10 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.