textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase today and Monday. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The remnant energy from the system that moved through Oklahoma yesterday along with a shortwave will make its way east today giving some extra lift over the area. SPC has placed most of the area into a marginal risk today. There are very high PWATs of 2.0-2.1" which is around the 90th percentile based on sounding climatology. This moisture along with destabilization through the day will promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. The atmospheric column is quite saturated and relatively warm mid-level temperatures with a freezing level of 15,000+ feet supports efficient warm rain processes with rainfall rates up to 2-3 inches/hour. WPC has the northwest half of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today. Expect strong to severe wind gusts and localized flooding with ponding in roadways and low lying areas.

Moisture remains quite high through the end of the week with dominant southwesterly low level flow and PWATs of 1.8-2.0". The trough is slow to move while encountering the subtropical ridge to our east. We are still influenced by this increased buoyancy tomorrow into Tuesday leading to another day of scattered to locally numerous storms. The ridge slowly builds back in mid week and decreases rain chances to a more normal summertime pattern with daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially along the sea breeze and resultant outflow boundaries.

Heat index values continue to be just below the Heat Advisory threshold of 108-112, with maximum values of 100-107 for much of the area. The building ridge by mid to end week will increase temperatures and heat indices close to the aforementioned threshold and will be monitored in the coming days. There continues be little overnight relief with low temperatures through mid next week only reaching the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to 80 along the coast. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water and take breaks in A/C when possible. SS/97

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop through the afternoon, with the higher coverage anticipated along and west of I-65. The convection diminishes this evening with isolated to scattered showers and storms redeveloping Monday morning. MVFR conditions are anticipated with the stronger showers and storms with otherwise VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will be primarily westerly to southerly at 5-10 knots this afternoon, then diminish to a light and variable flow by early this evening. A west to southwest flow at 5-10 knots develops Monday morning. /29

MARINE

Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to west flow will prevail through late week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 91 75 92 / 30 50 50 60 Pensacola 78 92 79 93 / 50 50 60 60 Destin 79 90 80 91 / 60 60 60 60 Evergreen 72 90 73 91 / 30 50 40 50 Waynesboro 73 90 73 91 / 30 50 40 40 Camden 73 88 73 89 / 30 50 40 30 Crestview 74 92 74 92 / 30 50 40 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.