textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Rain chances increase throughout the week, especially over the western half of the forecast area.

- Localized patchy dense fog will be possible over the next few nights.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft is expected to continue through the period as an active subtropical jet sets up along and west of our local area. Several shortwaves, embedded within the subtropical jet, will quickly pass near/over the area over the next several days. With the shortwaves moving overhead, along with deep moisture in place (PWATs generally ranging around 1.6-2.0 inches) and strong destabilization occurring each day due to diurnal heating, shower and thunderstorm development is expected each day through the period. Highest rain chances look to occur during the late morning/afternoon hours each day, and best coverage looks to be over interior counties west of I-65 (due to the closer proximity to the subtropical jet). Due to limited shear, storms should be rather pulse-like in nature, and therefore, we are not anticipating any organized severe weather throughout the period. That being said, as we typically see with this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as frequent lightning. It should be noted that the slow-moving nature of these storms, as well as the deep moisture in place, may lead to storms being efficient rainfall producers. If a few storms manage to train over the same areas, cannot rule out some localized flooding concerns. Highs each day will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with a few localized spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Lows will be very mild and humid, with temperatures only dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s inland and the low to mid 70s closer to the coast. Cannot rule out the development of patchy fog each night, mainly over inland counties, due to saturated boundary-layer conditions and calm winds. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will be in place through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /96

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

MVFR to VFR ceilings through much of the period with isolated showers and storms mainly across northwest portions of the area. IFR to LIFR will again be possible across interior portions of the area tonight. /13

MARINE

Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 86 72 84 / 10 40 40 80 Pensacola 73 86 74 83 / 0 20 20 50 Destin 73 85 75 84 / 0 10 10 20 Evergreen 69 90 69 86 / 20 30 10 60 Waynesboro 69 87 70 82 / 30 60 50 100 Camden 69 88 69 83 / 30 50 30 80 Crestview 68 90 69 88 / 0 10 10 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.