textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to possible flash flooding will occur over the next several days.

- HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through at least Thursday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

There is a pattern change on the horizon but overall it will not affect our high rain chances for the remainder of the week through early next week. The upper ridge to our east marries up with a high pressure area over the northern plains to form an elongated ridge from Florida to south central Canada by noon Thursday. The ridge axis clips eastern and northern Alabama so we should see only scattered showers and storms across our south central Alabama zones on Thursday, but numerous coverage is still expected elsewhere. As quickly as the ridge builds it breaks down Thursday night and Friday as the upper trough over the northeast CONUS is reinforced by another shortwave diving south over eastern Canada. The upper trough to our west is finally able to break its grip over the southern plains and eject eastward over Mississippi and Alabama on Friday. The persistent southwesterly flow aloft will shift zonal over our area at the base of the trough and then northwesterly as the trough moves off to our east. After a brief shift back to zonal Sunday into Monday, a more established northwesterly to northerly flow will follow through the remainder of the forecast as a third shortwave dives south over eastern Canada and carves out a larger trough along the east coast.

As mentioned earlier, this pattern change will not have an affect our high rain chances as a continuous stream of upper shortwaves and impulses move over the region resulting in numerous to at times widespread showers and storms returning Friday through Monday north of I-10. Scattered to occasional numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected south of I-10. The highest rain chances will occur primarily during the afternoon hours with decreasing stability from diurnal heating. As mentioned on the previous discussion, a northwesterly flow pattern is capable of advecting in a any organized MCS's into our area if storms develop upstream, and we will need to be on the lookout for that.

Beach Forecast - The HIGH risk for rip currents has been extended through Friday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches due to a persistent onshore wind and unsettled sea state. Offshore storms will only act to amplify the surf and rip currents each day. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Scattered showers and storms mainly across southwestern Alabama will spread northward this afternoon. IFR to MVFR ceilings and Visbys will accompany these storms with MVFR to VFR ceilings developing behind the storms. Rain should subside across the area this afternoon and into the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings should move in after midnight and a period of IFR to LIFR ceilings could be possible during the early morning hours tomorrow. Best chances for IFR to LIFR will be mainly north of I-10 with mainly IFR to MVFR ceilings along and south of I-10. Winds will remain light out of the south today becoming light and variable overnight. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Light onshore flow will persist for the remainder of the week shifting to a more westerly component early next week. Seas will generally be around 3 feet through Thursday and around 2 feet for the remainder of the forecast. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 84 71 85 70 / 60 30 60 20 Pensacola 83 73 84 73 / 60 30 60 10 Destin 83 73 84 73 / 60 30 50 20 Evergreen 84 69 86 69 / 80 20 50 20 Waynesboro 85 70 84 69 / 70 20 60 30 Camden 84 68 84 68 / 80 20 50 30 Crestview 85 69 87 69 / 60 20 60 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.