textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026 - A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through tonight for all area beaches.

- Drier air filtering into the area will lower rain chances through Tuesday.

- Heat indices will increase the latter half of the week, reaching between 100-107 degrees Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Through Thursday...an upper trough that has moved over the Southeast organizes into a closed upper low over the region through Tuesday, then opens and moves off as upper highs over the Desert Southwest and off the East Coast build east/west over the Southern Plains and Southeast. A weakly organized surface low over the eastern half of the Southeast opens and moves off with the upper dynamics. A surface ridge shifts north and builds over the Southeast from the eastern upper ridge, restoring onshore flow over the Southeast. A drier airmass (precipitable h20 values around 1.5", with the drier air being above 700mb) that has moved over the western half of the Southeast (and the western half of the forecast area) begins to moisten, rising to 1.7"-2.0" by the end of the day Thursday. Overall, a dry beginning of the forecast today and Tuesday, with an uptick Wednesday, mainly southeast of I-65 Wednesday as a band of increased moisture moves over the southeastern half of the forecast area. A dry band follows for Wednesday night. The onshore flow becomes better organized beginning Thursday, with moisture levels rising Thursday on. Isolated to scattered, seabreeze initiated showers and thunderstorms return Thursday. The drier air above surface may enhance any stronger storms developing Wednesday and Thursday. Enough instability is present for stronger storms each day (MLCapes of 1500-2000J/kg), though any organizing shear is limited. Soundings show DCapes rising above 1000J/kg each afternoon, enough for strong to severe downbursts.

Temperatures through Thursday remain at or above seasonal norms, with higher temperatures over the western half of the forecast area (closer to the Southern Plains upper ridge) rising above. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s expected each day, around 90 along the coast. Low temperatures in the around 70 to low 70s tonight (mid 70s along the coast) rise to the low to low to mid 70s by Wednesday night (upper 70s along the coast). Heat indices in the 95-101 degree range Tuesday rise into the 98 to 103 degree range by Thursday.

Thursday night on, the upper ridge off the East Coast becomes dominant and expands over the Southeast over the weekend, with the surface ridge over the Southeast becoming more organized. Moisture levels rise back over 2". Rain chances increase through the weekend in response, though the building upper ridge will help to temper the PoPs, to a bit above seasonal norms. Temperatures remain a bit above seasonal norms through the weekend, with daytime Heat Indices rising to just below Advisory levels.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, the Moderate Risk today drops to a low through the week. By the end of the week, a more organized onshore flow will increase the Rip Risk to an upper Low to Moderate in the coming weekend, with our Florida beaches seeing the better chance of a Moderate Risk. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A surface ridge stretching west over the central Gulf shifts north through the week, shifting a general westerly flow to southwesterly, then southerly through mid week. Wind speeds are expected to be generally light, occasionally moderate. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 71 93 73 / 10 10 10 10 Pensacola 90 75 91 77 / 10 10 10 0 Destin 89 76 89 78 / 10 10 10 20 Evergreen 90 68 91 70 / 20 0 10 10 Waynesboro 91 70 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 87 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 0 Crestview 91 69 92 71 / 20 10 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.