textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

UPDATE

Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Strong winds over the forecast area today are slowly beginning to settle, but are expected to remain gusty into the early evening. Have extended the Wind Advisory for a couple of hours, until 9pm, due to the winds still gusting to over 30mph over and near the advisory area. The rest of the forecast is on track at this time, with the tidal cycle on the downswing. Have the the coastal flood advisory expire. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

An upper level ridge will continue to build across the southwest Atlantic into the southeast. This will keep the frontal boundary and associated severe weather risk well to our northwest through the near term. While conditions will remain dry, temperatures will continue to increase. Highs on Thursday will climb into the low to mid 80s in many locations with some upper 80s possible in inland areas. Breezy conditions this afternoon will gradually decrease this evening. Winds will increase again on Thursday and a wind advisory may be needed again. The coastal flood advisory will be allowed to expire at 6 pm this evening as water heights are expected to remain below advisory criteria. Patchy fog is expected to develop again tonight offshore and across coastal areas. Lows tonight will also be well above normal, in the upper 60s and low 70s. /13

Heading into the weekend, the pattern should finally breakdown as a stronger upper trough finally moves eastward and the upper ridge breaks down. This will likely bring a round of showers and thunderstorms along the approaching cold front on Sunday. Looking at some of the analog guidance and machine learning guidance, the severe threat is still a potential. However, everything seems to be a tick out of phase with this and so while we cannot rule out some stronger storms, the overall risk does not seem to line up just yet. For now we will continue to keep a eye on it. Things cool off behind the front as temperatures drop back into the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s for lows early next week. BB-8

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Southeast to southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots over the forecast area is bringing IFR to low end MVFR CIGS to most of the area. Winds will settle into the overnight hours, with fog development becoming possible after 06z/1am tonight. Stronger winds are expected Thursday, with LLWS being possible over most of the forecast area. A moist airmass in place combined with strong low level dynamics will contribute to IFR/MVFR CIGs over the forecast area again. /16

MARINE

Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow continues through Saturday. A cold front will move through the marine area on Sunday with a northerly flow for early next week. /13

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>055-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-670.