textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Hot and humid conditions return with heat indices in the 100 to 107 range this weekend.

- A MODERATE risk of rip currents continues today through early next week for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, becoming a HIGH risk by Tuesday.

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly early next week bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Upper ridging gradually shifts south and weakens today into the weekend. In its place, weak northwest flow develops. Today will likely be similar to yesterday with generously isolated coverage of showers and storms, mainly in the vicinity of the seabreeze boundary. Saturday into Sunday will be more of your typical summer time afternoon scattered showers and storms. Temperatures remain hot overall, with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to middle 90's and heat indices in the 100 to 107 range. Morning temperatures offer no relief as middle to upper 70's become common to start the day Saturday into early next week.

As we head into next week, we will see a pretty substantial pattern change as upper ridging continues to shifts southwest and upper troughing becomes dominant. The signal for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall remains across the region, particularly as we head into the early to middle part of next week. It remains too early to get into the details on things, but overall deterministic and ensemble guidance supports a favorable pattern for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding potential during this timeframe. The axis of heaviest rainfall will be contingent on the evolution of the cold front as it stalls across the gulf coast states and any shortwaves rounding the base of the parent trough. As the previous discussion mentioned, PWAT values are forecast to reach above the 90th percentile for this time of year highlighting the anomalously moist, tropical airmass forecast to be in place and supporting the potential for heavy rainfall.

A Moderate risk of rip currents continues and will last for the foreseeable future. Onshore winds strengthen quite a bit as we head into early next week, with the risk likely increasing to a High by Tuesday. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions expected over most of the forecast area through the forecast. The exception is isolated fog development near sunrise bringing IFR VISBYs to some localities. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A diurnal pattern of light westerly to northwesterly flow in the morning and southwesterly flow during the afternoon and evening is expected today through the weekend. A moderate southwest flow early next week should gradually veer to more southerly by midweek with an increasing onshore component. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near and around thunderstorms. MM/JGC

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 75 93 76 / 20 0 10 0 Pensacola 89 77 91 78 / 10 0 10 0 Destin 87 78 87 79 / 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 94 75 93 75 / 10 0 30 10 Waynesboro 93 75 93 75 / 10 10 20 10 Camden 93 75 93 75 / 10 10 30 20 Crestview 94 75 94 75 / 20 0 30 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.