textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Afternoon heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 through weekend, with localized spots potentially reaching 108-110.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue today, increasing to numerous to widespread by Sunday and into early next week. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized flooding, is possible.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents for all area beaches be present through Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

One more day of typical mid-July weather will occur today before an anomalous pattern brings bouts of heavy rain early next week. As mentioned in the earlier discussion update, we are expecting convection to develop along the coast late tonight into the morning hours due to low-level convergence along a land-breeze. Most of this convection is expected to move south over the Gulf throughout the morning, followed by a brief lull in land-based activity early afternoon before adequate instability allows storms to develop north of I-10. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of gusty surface winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Similar to this past evening, we are expecting the convection to linger well inland through mid-evening. High temperatures today will range from 91-96 degrees. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 73 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short duration instances as high as 110 degrees. Lows tonight will be about 4 to 9 degrees above normal, with middle 70s inland, upper 70s for our coastal communities, and around 80 degrees at the beaches.

The pattern shift starts late tonight into Sunday as a positively tilted upper trough extending from southeast Canada to the middle Mississippi Valley begins to have an effect on our region. While the northern half of the trough moves eastward over the western Atlantic, the southern half of the trough in the form of a shortwave with a cutoff upper low pressure area over the Ohio Valley becomes detached and migrates slowly southward over the Tennessee Valley by noon on Monday. This upper-level feature will then retrograde westward toward the southern plains Monday night through Tuesday under a large elongated upper high pressure area situated over much of the northern U.S. Until then, a weak surface low pressure area reflected in the lower levels under the upper low will also migrate into our region Sunday night into Monday. We are still expecting a surface boundary to be somewhere near or enter into our forecast area, but it is difficult to determine exactly where due to convective outflow contamination. With PWATS increasing to an average around 2.3" Sunday and Monday, numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur both days, with the potential for localized flooding. The WPC has our area outlooked for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall not only on Sunday and Monday, but for Tuesday as well despite the lower rain chances. It is possible that we could see a corridor of 3 to 6" of rainfall for this event if training of slow-moving storms are able to set up across the area. Otherwise, we would anticipate a general 1 to 3" of rainfall across the forecast area. We will resume our typical mid-July weather through the latter half of the week as upper high pressure rebuilds over the region. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region this morning into tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon for much of the area, locally reducing flight category at times. Winds remain out of the south to south-southwest at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southerly to southwesterly flow prevails through Sunday, becoming more westerly by early next week. Seas will build to 2 to 3 feet for the weekend into early next week. Expect higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 93 76 92 73 / 30 10 80 70 Pensacola 92 80 92 77 / 30 20 80 80 Destin 90 81 89 78 / 20 20 50 80 Evergreen 94 74 91 71 / 20 20 80 70 Waynesboro 96 75 91 72 / 10 10 80 70 Camden 93 75 89 72 / 10 10 80 70 Crestview 94 76 92 73 / 40 20 80 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.