textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1010 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

22.12Z upper air maps show a more active southwest flow at higher levels atop the area. A complex, broad upper trof is positioned over the Plains. Embedded in a short-wave mid/upper level negative oriented trof, a lead impulse is ejecting north northeast and has been responsible for an active early portion of the shift with isolated severe storms over the northwest zones exhibiting rotation necessitating the issuance of a few tornado warnings. These storms formed within overlap of sufficient instability/shear/and 0-1 km storm relative helicity values ~150 m2/s2 atop a weakly defined surface trof draped over southern MS. The low level speed max ejects northeast and out of the area which should lower the severe weather potential the remainder of the day. A few storms could still overachieve which could maintain a conditional, mainly isolated severe weather threat. Storms will also be capable of locally heavy rains and the potential for isolated flooding, especially in lower lying areas subject to poor drainage where storms move repeatedly over the same areas. /10

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Through Sunday...a series of upper level shortwave troughs move northeast along the west side of an upper ridge stretching north along the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface ridge stretches west over the East Coast due to the upper ridge, whilst the passing shortwave energy maintains a semi-stationary surface front running from southern Tx to the Tenn River Valley. A soupy airmass (precipitable h20 values of 1.8"-2.0") that has moved over the Southeast south of the surface front is maintained through the weekend. With the added upper level instability, rain chances remain high through the period.

There is concern that strong to severe storms will develop later tonight into Friday morning as a strong series of shortwaves pass northwest of the forecast area. MLCapes vary in the guidance (between 1500-2500J/kg) with 0-1km helicities in the 80-120 m^2/s^2. Add in a modest 30-35kt 850mb jet passing northwest of the forecast area working with any left over boundaries left over from Thursday's activity, wind damage from any spinners along with brief tornadoes are possible, with timing beginning near sunrise Friday. Also, with the soupy airmass allowing for efficient rainers, water issues are possible, especially if any favorable boundaries are generated. Daily thunderstorms continue through the weekend, especially along and northwest of I-65, but any decent upper support from the passing shortwave energy is missing until Sunday, when several rounds of shortwave energy organize into a closed upper low over Tx. The above seasonal rain chances will create a below seasonal to around/above gradient in high temperatures through the weekend. Low to mid 80s Friday see an uptick to mid to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday, with the lower temperatures being north of Highway 84 Saturday and northwest of I-65 Sunday. With the high moisture levels and overnight cloud cover limiting overnight cooling, low temperatures are expected to be above seasonal norms, with upper 60s to mid 70s expected.

Monday through Thursday...the struggle between the upper low over Tx and upper high off the East coast continues, with better rain chances over the northwestern half of the forecast area, closer to the upper energy. High temperatures remain around or below seasonal norms over most of the forecast area through the period, with low temperatures a bit above seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent onshore flow varies in strength, with onshore swell varying in response. The tidal cycle slowly decreases into the coming week, but the Rip Risk remains moderate to at times high through most of the week. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings remain prevalent across the region. Scattered showers and storms have temporarily waned, but will increase to scattered to numerous for most of the area as we head into the mid morning and the afternoon hours. Expect reductions in ceiling and visibility under any storms. Winds remain out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, gusting around 15 knots this afternoon. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through this weekend and into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. MM/25 /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 84 72 86 71 / 90 50 70 20 Pensacola 82 74 84 73 / 80 40 50 20 Destin 83 74 83 73 / 70 60 60 20 Evergreen 82 70 85 69 / 90 40 90 20 Waynesboro 82 69 85 68 / 90 50 70 50 Camden 80 69 84 68 / 100 50 80 40 Crestview 84 70 87 70 / 80 50 80 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.