textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 - Heat Risk increases Today, which will continue into the upcoming weekend. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM thru 8PM on Thursday, with additional heat headlines expected through the weekend. Afternoon heat indices in the 105-112 degree range will be dangerous for anyone outdoors for extended periods.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along and south of the coast overnight. With the northeasterly direction of movement, have extended the northern end of the added PoPs inland, but not quite as far as the I-10. Am monitoring for waterspouts, with the non-meso tor parameter on SPC's mesoanalysis site current currently decently high. Everything else is on track at this time. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

An upper ridge stretching from the northeastern half of the Gulf into the Plains becomes centered predominately across the southeastern and south central states through Saturday. The landbreeze circulation looks to aid in some convection developing near the coast Thursday morning, after which the sea breeze supports isolated convection in the afternoon mainly east of I-65. Isolated convection is again anticipated to develop Friday afternoon east of I-65 with the sea breeze. Interestingly, the change in orientation of the upper ridge allows for a series of shortwaves to manage to rotate into the forecast area and lead to a subtle weakening of the upper ridge over the forecast area by Saturday. This weakening and some improved deep layer moisture working in from the east looks to allow for isolated to scattered convection development on Saturday and also on Sunday, after which the modest weakness in the upper ridge is anticipated to slowly shift to over the ArkLaMiss region by Sunday night.

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 90s then trend to highs ranging from 95 to 100 on Friday with similar values continuing over the weekend despite the increase in rain chances as convection will be developing in the afternoon hours. Heat index values on Thursday will be mostly 108-110, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area from 11 am until 8 pm. Similar heat index values are expected on Friday and through the weekend, with additional Heat Advisories likely becoming necessary each day. The upper ridge weakens on Monday to become confined to the northern Gulf coast states then on Tuesday evolves into a narrow ridge oriented along the northern Gulf coast. Despite this, hot temperatures are still anticipated with highs ranging from 95-100 Monday and Tuesday with similar values following for Wednesday as well. With no respite from the hot temperatures, additional Heat Advisories will likely continue to become necessary. Isolated to scattered storms will develop each afternoon and hopefully bring some relief. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Showers and thunderstorms have developed just south of the coast just before sunrise, and may affect near coastal areas. A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon, mainly closer to the coast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

High pressure over the Gulf will continue to promote a light to at times moderate southwest to westerly winds through the forecast period. Added Exercise caution wording for today's forecast, with coastal NOS stations/bouy's advertising around 15kt with frequent gusts to near 20 kts. Waves/seas will remain light with no impacts anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 94 77 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 Pensacola 93 79 95 79 / 20 0 20 10 Destin 92 81 93 81 / 10 0 10 10 Evergreen 96 76 97 76 / 10 10 20 10 Waynesboro 98 76 99 74 / 10 0 10 10 Camden 95 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 Crestview 96 75 98 76 / 20 0 20 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.