textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Rain chances will increase for mid to late week, potentially bringing a risk of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday.

- The risk for strong rip currents increases midweek, with a Moderate to High risk of rip currents possible across Florida Panhandle beaches Thursday into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The forecast is on track with no changes planned at the moment. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Through Friday, a series of upper level shortwave troughs passing over/by the Southeast shift an upper ridge over the northern Gulf coast southward, allowing the energy to more directly affect the forecast area. The first shortwave passes tonight through Wednesday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly to the northwestern half of the forecast area. Another Thursday into Thursday night passes further south over the Southeast, bringing greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area as a front moves south across the area. This front is forecast to stall along the northern Gulf coast Thursday night as the shortwave energy moves off. Another round of mainly elevation showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast area Friday as more upper level shortwave energy passes.

Looking at any issues, the most concerning period is Wednesday into Thursday. A band of better instability (MLCapes rising into the 2000- 2500J/kg range) stretches northeast across the Southeast, and with the latest guidance just northwest of the forecast Wednesday. Add in EBWD shear around 61 kts, DCapes in the 900-1100J/kg range, some models advertising mid level lapse rates around 7.0C or a bit more, and 0-1km helicities in the 100-150m^2/s^2 range, strong to severe storms are possible. The best combination of ingredients are uncomfortably just northwest of the forecast area, with an SPC Slight Risk just touching our northwest counties for Wednesday/Wednesday night, Marginal to around I-65. All modes of severe weather are possible (damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes). The risk of strong to severe storms continues into Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front, though the ingredients are a bit less in magnitude and organization. On a better note, the steady stream of precipitation is expected to help with the current drought conditions, especially with the overrunning rain Thursday/Friday.

Looking at temperatures, high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday drop each day to the mid to upper 70s by Friday due to the rain and a bit cooler air behind the front. Low temperatures see an uptick from the mid 60s tonight to the mid 60s to low 70s Wednesday night ahead of the coming front, then drop into the upper 50s to low 60s Friday night (a bit warmer along the coast each night).

For the weekend into the coming week, a de-evolving upper low passes over the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. Onshore flow quickly returns to the forecast area Friday night into Saturday, helping to maintain the good moisture levels over the northern Gulf coast to just south of I-20 (precipitable h20 values in the 1.5" to 1.9" range). Another round of surfaced based showers and thunderstorms is expected Saturday. Ingredients for any rowdy storms are less than the previous week, but not gone. Will have to keep an eye on this. Another round of shortwave energy passes early in the coming week, with a cold front moving across the forecast area Monday in response. Temperatures start the weekend a bit below seasonal norms, then rise to a bit above by Sunday, then remain there for the rest of the forecast.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk rises to a Moderate, occasionally High, Wednesday night into Saturday as onshore swell increases as southerly winds along and south of the coast combines with a large tidal range the rest of the week. The Rip Risk decreases the rest of the weekend as onshore flow and swell decreases, along with decreasing tidal cycle. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions will be followed by a predominately MVFR ceiling developing over the area late tonight, with patchy fog possible. Conditions improve to MVFR/VFR on Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing mainly west of I-65 in the afternoon. Southerly winds 5-10 knots diminish to 5 knots or less this evening, then a southwest to south flow around 10 knots develops on Wednesday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A cold front sags south across the forecast area Thursday, stalling along the coast Thursday night. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow ahead of the front will become more variable for Thursday night into Friday. Another approaching upper system brings light to moderate onshore flow back to the area for the beginning of the weekend. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 83 70 81 / 0 20 30 80 Pensacola 69 81 73 81 / 0 10 10 60 Destin 69 81 72 80 / 0 0 10 50 Evergreen 60 86 66 81 / 0 20 40 90 Waynesboro 63 83 66 78 / 0 60 70 80 Camden 62 86 66 78 / 0 40 70 90 Crestview 62 86 67 84 / 0 10 10 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.