textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 - Extreme Heat Warning in effect for coastal areas today and tomorrow with a Heat Advisory for remainder of the area today and tomorrow

- High Risk of rip currents is expected to return by next weekend for all area beaches.

- Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances increase in the middle to latter part of the week. A few storms may produce strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

It has been another hot day across the region with the heat index right around the 110 to 114 level along the immediate coast and elsewhere easily in the 105 to 110 range. There is still a few more hours of heating so we likely haven't seen the peak heat indexvalues yet.

Conditions are finally about to change some after one more day with very hot conditions. The ridge that has been dominating the much of the CONUS west of the MS and providing the extreme heat will finally begin to be suppressed and pushed to the southwest. This will cause it to lessen its grip on the area and thus slightly cooler temps but more so a return to a wetter pattern.

We will already begin to see the east coast L/W trough dig tomorrow eroding the eastern edge of the ridge. This will lead to slightly cooler mid level temps over the eastern half of the area. At the same time there is a weak front that is currently dropping through the OH Valley and towards the TN Valley, this front is expected to move into the northern MS, AL, and GA before sunrise and continued to sink towards the northeastern Gulf coast by overnight Wednesday night. With the front slightly slower there may not be quite as much convection over the area tomorrow but isolated to widely scattered activity across the northern outlook counties still looks pretty good and given the slightly weaker ridge, especially over the eastern portions of the CWA, we may see isolated coastal storms thanks to the sea-breeze. Given that convection will likely be on the lower coverage side and even some possible compressional heating in front of the front it will be another hot one. Also with convection likely rather late in the day most of the area will have little difficulty reaching heat advisory criteria with the immediate coastal sections likely hitting the Extreme Heat criteria. With another Heat Adv and Extreme Heat Warning have been issued for tomorrow for the exact same locations as today's.

A few concerns regarding the heat tomorrow, We will see the jet dig south tomorrow and this could drive in a little more cirrus than initially expected and that will have some impact on temps but the bigger impact will be convection. If we get scattered convection to develop and develop a little earlier than expected than the increase in cloud cover and numerous outflow boundaries will likely keep the area a little cooler than currently forecast.

Heading into Thursday and through the weekend rain chances will ramp up however Friday is a little of a question mark. First Thursday we will have that front draped across the region rich moisture in place (PWs of 2-2.2"), slightly weaker grip form the mid lvl ridge, and possibly even a subtle mid lvl impulse with h5 winds 20-25 kts out of the north. This would promote a later initiation time typically but perhaps the front allows for storms to develop a tad earlier and a few strong storms can't be ruled out. As for Friday models are indicating s/w riding in the mid lvls moving across the region. This is in response to a strong s/w rounding the ridge tomorrow and then starting to work down the downstream side of the ridge Thursday. s/w ridging in front of that in response could keep convection a little more scattered Friday but that is it because as we head into the weekend we move under northwesterly flow Friday night and then that strong s/w mentioned earlier drops down the backside of the east coast L/W trough and closes off over the Lower MS Valley and portions of the Deep South this weekend. The lift aloft should lead to numerous storms this weekend and into the new work week. This will also break the strong of heat we have been dealing with as well. /CAB/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Overall not much of a concern on the aviation side. All terminals are in VFR unless convection moves over top of any sight they should all remain in VFR status through this forecast. Isolated storms are possible just north and along the west side of Mobile Bay which could impact MOB and BFM. Obviously if any storm moves over any of the terminals look for lower cigs and reduced vsbys. Otherwise looks like at least one more day before we start seeing impacts pick up over terminals from convection and then convection will be an on and off issue through the weekend. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A diurnal wind pattern will likely persist through the week even as a weak front drops into the area Wednesday night. This front will drift over the coast and into the coastal waters Thursday and Friday but as it stalls the winds will still be mostly dictated by daytime heating and slight cooling at night. With that light to moderate onshore winds each day driven by the sea breeze and light to moderate offshore winds each night driven by the land breeze. Storm coverage will start to increase Wednesday but look for storms to really ramp up by Thursday with widespread coverage by the weekend. Winds and waves will be locally higher near any storms along the increased threat for dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop over the Gulf waters by next weekend. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 98 77 94 / 10 20 40 80 Pensacola 80 98 79 93 / 0 20 30 70 Destin 82 95 81 92 / 0 20 40 60 Evergreen 77 97 74 93 / 0 20 40 60 Waynesboro 78 99 76 93 / 0 20 50 70 Camden 78 96 74 91 / 0 30 40 30 Crestview 77 99 76 94 / 10 30 40 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>264.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ051>060- 261>264.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ265- 266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201-203-205.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201-203- 205.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ202- 204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...None.