textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 635 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the rest of the week, potentially increasing in coverage over the weekend.

- Heat indices will trend upward through late week, reaching around 100-107 degrees Friday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Have updated to make minor adjustments to temperature trends this morning and also to include more of the near shore waters with slight chance pops for the morning hours. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A closed upper-level low centered over Georgia continues to wrap an unseasonably dry air mass into the forecast area above the 700 mb level. At the surface, the weak cold front that ushered in cooler, drier conditions on Monday is gradually washing out over the northern Gulf coast. As influence from the upper low weakens, temperatures today should rebound back to near or slightly above seasonal norms, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s. Despite mid-level dry air, low-level instability and sufficient moisture below 700 mb should support isolated to scattered afternoon shower development (15-30% PoPs), mainly along and east of the I-65 corridor or along sea/bay breeze boundaries given the northwest flow. While a storm or two cannot be ruled out, a lingering stout capping inversion near 700 mb should keep updrafts relatively shallow and preclude robust thunderstorm initiation.

Wednesday into Thursday, the upper low will drift slowly northward while weakening, eventually getting absorbed into the northern stream by Thursday. As a result, northwest flow aloft will relax, leaving the area in a weak/variable steering regime between the Bermuda High to the east and the Monsoon Ridge over the Desert Southwest. With that, the sea breeze will be able to push farther inland each afternoon and moisture will gradually increase. Rain chances increase modestly into the 20-40% range for Wednesday and Thursday, centered mainly along and between the I-10 and I-65 corridors, or where sea breeze convergence is maximized. Mid-level capping weakens Wednesday and erodes altogether by Thursday, supporting deeper convection and more lightning potential with any storms.

Friday into the weekend, low to mid-level flow is expected to become generally southerly or southeasterly as the Bermuda High attempts to expand westward into the Southeast states. This will come with an increase in deep tropical moisture, driving afternoon heat index values back into the 100-107 degree range. Expect scattered coverage of afternoon showers and storms, possibly increasing to numerous in spots by Sunday as PWATs rise to over 2 inches in association with the remnants of a tropical easterly wave. Coverage would also be enhanced if an upper trough over the Great Lakes digs farther south into the Tennessee Valley and weakens the ridge overhead. Trends will be monitored for heavy rainfall potential, but there are currently no indications of anything high-impact.

Beach Forecast... A Low risk of rip currents is expected at all area beaches today through the remainder of the workweek. JGC/98

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Some patchy fog is possible mainly over interior areas early this morning and again late tonight. Isolated to possibly scattered showers and storms are anticipated along and east of I-65 this afternoon. MVFR conditions will be possible with the patchy fog and stronger showers and storms, with VFR conditions otherwise anticipated through tonight. A northwesterly flow around 5 knots is expected over interior areas today while closer to the coast a west to southwest flow at 5-10 knots develops. /29

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A light northwesterly flow develops this morning then becomes a light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow this afternoon which continues into Wednesday. A southeasterly flow develops on Thursday then becomes easterly to southeasterly for Friday and Saturday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 93 74 94 74 / 20 0 20 0 Pensacola 91 77 92 78 / 20 10 20 0 Destin 89 79 89 79 / 10 10 10 10 Evergreen 93 71 94 71 / 20 10 20 10 Waynesboro 94 71 96 72 / 10 0 10 0 Camden 91 71 93 73 / 10 10 20 0 Crestview 93 73 94 73 / 30 10 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.