textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 650 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - A MODERATE RISK of rip currents continues through midweek for Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Elevated rain chances remain in place through Thursday, particularly over interior counties.

UPDATE

Issued at 650 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The forecast remains on track as scattered showers and storms developing along the coast will increase in coverage and spread inland throughout the day. Coverage is expected to decrease in coverage along the coast by early afternoon. Isolated rainfall amounts up to 3 inches are expected inland today, which could lead to localized flooding. With mostly cloudy skies and increasing rain chances, high temperatures should only range from 85 to 90 degrees. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Currently, radar and satellite indicates that a remnant outflow boundary remains stalled over our Gulf waters, extending westward into southern Louisiana. Over the course of the day today, this outflow is expected to slowly lift northeastward as high pressure builds over Florida and helps to strengthen our low-level southwesterly flow. As this boundary lifts northeastward, it will help to serve as a low-level focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop along. Latest CAMs suggest that convection should start to fire around, or a little after, daybreak across our coastal counties this morning. By the afternoon, the best convective coverage is expected to be focused over interior counties, with rain chances decreasing along the coast. Not anticipating any severe weather with this activity due to weak shear, although gusty downburst winds cannot be ruled out in storms that manage to cluster together. Additionally, the scattered nature of these storms, as well as faster storm motions, should help to limit flash flood potential. That being said, with how saturated the area is, 1hr Flash Flood Guidance generally sits at around 1.5-2.5 inches across much of the area and 3hr FFG is around 2.5-3.5 inches. And with PWATs still around 2 inches, storms could still be efficient rainfall producers. The 3 hr QPF ensemble max from the HREF does have a few isolated pockets of around 2-5 inches across the area. Therefore, cannot rule out some localized flooding concerns as we go through the day today.

The synoptic pattern becomes rather persistent for most of the upcoming workweek. A generally light westerly to northwesterly upper-level flow pattern will be in place through Thursday as our local area remains sandwiched between an upper ridge over the Gulf and upper troughing over the Great Lakes. The problem with this type of flow pattern this time of year is that embedded shortwaves will try to move into the area from the northwest, which could allow for upstream complexes/MCS's to push into the local area. We are starting to see this possibility on some of the latest 00z CAMs, where they try to push an MCS into the area Monday afternoon/early evening. Although guidance tends to struggle with these types of complexes (i.e. strength and timing), the general consensus is that storms should be weakening upon arrival. Although the environment will be very unstable (CAPE values possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg in spots), shear values will likely remain around 20 knots or less, suggesting that the complex should be outflow-dominant by time it arrives. And with subsident effects from the nearby ridge along with steady (or even possibly rising) heights, am not anticipating much in the way of storm redevelopment/MCS maintenance. All that being said, if the complex does manage to make it into our northwestern counties, storms (or even just the outflow itself) may be capable of producing gusty winds to around 40-60 mph. Additional MCS potentials may be possible through Thursday as the overall westerly/northwesterly upper-level pattern remains prevalent. Rain chances remain rather elevated for midweek as more potent shortwaves attempt to push in.

By Friday, the ridge is expected to build northward into the area. This will help to lower rain chances for Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

Highs through the period will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s. We should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria through the period, although most areas may see heat indices rise to around 100- 105. Lows will be in the 70s. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through midweek, finally dropping to a Low Risk by late week. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Patchy fog north of Highway-84, with occasional visibilites dipping to LIFR levels, will dissipate by mid morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast will increase in coverage and spread inland throughout the day, while coverage decreasing along the coast by early afternoon. Expect brief reductions in visibility in some of the heavier activity. Light and variable winds will become southwesterly 5-10 knots inland and around 10-15 knots gusting to near 20 knots closer to the coast. /22

MARINE

Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A surface ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf will expand westward through Tuesday. A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will shift to a light westerly flow Tuesday into Thursday. Seas 2 to 3 feet will subside to 2 feet Monday night through Thursday. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 88 76 91 76 / 60 10 10 10 Pensacola 88 79 91 79 / 60 10 10 10 Destin 87 79 89 80 / 70 10 30 10 Evergreen 87 75 92 74 / 80 20 20 30 Waynesboro 88 75 93 74 / 70 10 30 20 Camden 86 74 91 73 / 80 20 30 30 Crestview 88 75 93 75 / 80 20 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.