textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1045 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Fog will become more likely by the end of the week, with the potential of dense marine fog by Thursday and Friday nights.

- The next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms will be at the end of the week into the weekend as the next cold front approaches. - Strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from Saturday night into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A southwesterly flow aloft persists over the forecast region through Friday night while an upper trof advances across the western states and into the central states. The upper trof amplifies while continuing across the eastern states over the weekend into early next week, and in the process an associated surface low brings a strong cold front through the forecast area late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. A persistent southerly flow ahead of the approaching front bring improving deep layer moisture into the area, along with a potential for nightly fog development. A series of shortwaves moving through the southwesterly flow aloft bring a small chance for rain to coastal and eastern portions of the area tonight and Thursday, with chance to likely pops for Thursday night into Friday night. Have gone with mainly likely pops for Saturday as the front approaches and moves into the area, then pops taper off from west to east Saturday night followed by dry conditions on Sunday. Dry conditions continue for Monday into Wednesday.

MLCAPE values increase to around 500 J/kg on Friday with potentially similar values continuing into Friday night, then values of 500-1000 J/kg look to develop ahead of the front on Saturday. Shear values look to remain on the low end through the period, and will continue to monitor at this point. Warm temperatures are expected prior to the front, with highs Thursday and Friday mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be in the 60s. Much cooler air flows into the area in the wake of the front with lows Sunday night in the 30s, and in the mid 20s to mid 30s Monday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and in the 50s on Monday. Highs recover to the upper 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday, with lows by Wednesday night trending to around 50 to the mid 50s. A low risk of rip currents is expected through tonight, with a moderate risk for Thursday through Sunday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Conditions across the area varied from LIFR to MVFR with varying ceilings and visibilities. As temperatures rise am expecting CIGs and VISBYs to rise to VFR levels with southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots. After 00z/6pm, fog formation is indicated tonight, especially closer to Alabama and Mississippi coastal and protected waters. Wild card is cirrus passing over the forecast area, limiting overnight cooling. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1045 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A light to moderate onshore flow will continue through Saturday. A strong cold front moves through the area Saturday night, with a strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front and persisting into Sunday night. Gusts to gale force are possible well offshore late Saturday night into Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary from Saturday night into Sunday night, and much of Monday as well. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 62 79 65 80 / 10 10 50 60 Pensacola 64 76 67 78 / 20 20 60 70 Destin 61 72 64 73 / 30 20 60 70 Evergreen 60 81 64 80 / 20 10 60 60 Waynesboro 61 81 64 80 / 10 10 60 50 Camden 61 80 64 78 / 10 10 70 60 Crestview 60 80 64 81 / 20 20 70 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.