textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Strong marine winds will persist through tonight over area waters. Additional rounds rounds of advisory-level conditions with gusts near gale-force are likely mid week as winds turn easterly.

- The rip current risk increases to HIGH by mid-week. High surf with breaking waves of 5-8 feet are likely Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for minor coastal inundation.

- Fire weather concerns are possible on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Now through Monday...

A series of upper level shortwave troughs move east over the southern half of the Conus through Thursday, with the first moving to along the East Coast tonight. Another shortwave trough, currently over the Southwest/Mexico border, moves over the Southeast Wednesday, before joining the energy over the East coast and moving off Thursday into the weekend. A surface high over the Plains shifts east over the Mid Atlantic region in response to shortwave energy moving over the northern half of the Conus. A surface trough develops over the southern Gulf along the stalled surface boundary from Sunday and the shortwave energy over the East coast. This creates a tight pressure gradient over the northern Gulf and strong easterly winds setting up over the north-central and northeast Gulf coast and south into mid week. Thursday through the weekend, an upper ridge builds north along the Mississippi River. The surface low/trough over the southern Gulf weakens and pressure gradient over the northern Gulf eases. The surface ridge stretching southwest over the Southeast also weakens, with a seasonably warm and dry pattern setting up over the Southeast for the coming weekend.

Impacts from this set up through mid week will be two fold. Over land areas, increasing deep layer winds will bring very high dispersions into mid week. Combined with a decrease in relative humidities with a warmer day expected Tuesday, fire weather concerns are a possibility on Tuesday. Winds and relative humidity levels combined remain below criteria levels for weather WWAs at this time. By Wednesday, strong transport winds will bring high winds to the forecast area, but much increased moisture levels will counteract the need for any WWAs for Wednesday. Rain from over the weekend has helped to increase fuel moisture levels over the area, but any further WWAs outside of criteria levels may need to be addressed. Will continue to monitor.

Over area coastal waters, the tight pressure gradient will bring increased swell along with high surf to area beaches. A High Risk of Rip Currents returns Tuesday night. Surf heights are projects to rise into the 4'-6' range Tuesday night. A High Surf Advisory will likely be needed in the near future. Also, we continue to evaluate the need for a Coastal Flood Watch/Warning. The pressure gradient over the northern Gulf begins to ease Thursday, with the Rip Risk returning to Moderate to Low for the coming weekend.

Not to forget, temperatures. Tuesday through Thursday, high temperatures around seasonal norms are expected (mid to upper 70s). Low temperatures tonight ranging from the upper 40s north of Highway 84 to low 50s along the coast see an uptick into the mid 50s to near 60 by Thursday night. Through the weekend, high temperatures in the low to mid 80s return to the forecast area (near 80 along the coast). Low temperatures see a low rise, to the upper 50s to low 60s by Monday night. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region through Tuesday. Winds will remain generally out of the north-northeast to northeast at around 10 knots gusting to 20 knots during the day today and again Tuesday. Winds relax somewhat to 5 to 10 knots overnight. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist into tonight behind a cold front that passed through area waters. This strong offshore flow will then temporarily decrease and turn easterly by Tuesday afternoon before increasing once again late Tuesday night. Moderate to very strong easterly winds will persist through Friday, and we expect another round of small craft advisory- level conditions are expected. A Gale Watch in effect for open Gulf waters beginning late Tuesday night

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution on the Pensacola Bay System, Perdido Bay, and Choctawhatchee Bay tonight. /16

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Repost from above...

Over land areas of the forecast area, increasing deep layer winds will bring very high dispersions into mid week. Combined with a decrease in relative humidities with a warmer day expected Tuesday, fire weather concerns are a possibility on Tuesday. Winds and relative humidity levels combined remain below criteria levels for weather WWAs at this time. By Wednesday, strong transport winds will bring high winds to the forecast area, but increased moisture levels will counteract the need for any WWAs for Wednesday. Rain from over the weekend has helped to increase fuel moisture levels over the area, but any further WWAs outside of criteria levels may need to be addressed. Will continue to monitor. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 69 50 78 55 / 20 0 0 0 Pensacola 66 55 76 58 / 40 20 0 0 Destin 66 56 75 57 / 50 30 0 0 Evergreen 68 47 78 49 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 68 46 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 67 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 66 49 78 50 / 40 20 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.

Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Thursday night for GMZ650-655-670-675.