textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

- Strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, and possibly late in the week as well.

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk is in place for our Florida beaches today, and again on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Upper-level troughing is expected to amplify over the eastern US throughout the week and into the upcoming weekend. Out ahead of the main trough, a series of shortwaves, embedded within west- southwesterly flow aloft, is currently passing overhead. These shortwaves, along with slightly higher moisture values (PWATs up to 1.1 inches), are allowing for light showers to push across the local area. This rain is expected to slowly spread southeastward through the remainder of the overnight hours and into the morning as a surface cold front pushes through the area. Some very limited, elevated instability may become present during the mid to late morning hours, which could lead to a few rumbles of thunder along the coast, however, no severe storms are expected. Rain chances quickly diminish from west to east by this afternoon after the front sweeps through the area.

A much colder, drier airmass will filter in from the north in the wake of the front. In addition, a tight pressure gradient between the front and high pressure building across the central US will allow for breezy conditions starting this afternoon and lingering through Thursday. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s to low 30s west of I-65 to the mid 30s for areas east. Factoring in the wind, wind chills are expected to drop into the low to mid 20s areawide. As of right now, we should remain just above our Cold Weather Advisory thresholds, however, we will keep an eye on trends later today and into tonight. Highs on Thursday will only top out in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds will decrease by Thursday night, allowing for one more cold night of lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Upper ridging will start to build in across the western Gulf later this week. This will allow for a dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft to continue through early next week, and therefore, no rain is expected through the remainder of the period. Temperatures are expected to moderate through Friday and into the weekend, with low to mid 70 highs returning by early next week. Seeing these warmer temperatures, along with light onshore winds and higher humidity values suggests to me that we may be dealing with some fog issues next week. We'll keep an eye on trends over the coming days. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will be in place for our Florida beaches today, and potentially again on Friday. /96

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions are in place at issuance time. Light showers are beginning to spread across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama this morning. Expect this activity to slowly push southeastward through the remainder of the night and into the morning hours, bringing reductions in visibility to MVFR and ceilings to IFR. Conditions should improve to VFR by the early afternoon as rain pushes to the east of the local area. Ceilings may briefly lower to MVFR by the evening hours. Light southwesterly winds this morning will become northwesterly and increase to around 10-15 knots by this afternoon. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1235 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A light to moderate southwesterly flow will become northwesterly by this afternoon as a cold front pushes through. Winds increase to a moderate to strong flow by tonight, before slowly decreasing throughout the day on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is effect from this evening through Thursday evening. A moderate to strong westerly flow develops on Friday, switches back to the northwest Friday night, and then diminishes on Saturday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 61 32 51 32 / 80 0 0 0 Pensacola 61 35 52 36 / 90 0 0 0 Destin 63 37 52 39 / 90 0 0 0 Evergreen 58 31 50 29 / 90 0 0 0 Waynesboro 55 28 50 31 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 55 29 47 29 / 50 0 0 0 Crestview 62 33 52 28 / 90 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for GMZ630>636-650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Thursday for GMZ670-675.