textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon this week, particularly across the southern half of the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Hot conditions continue, with heat indices topping out at around 102-107 degrees each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed. /13

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A much more active weather pattern is expected this week as our local area remains underneath a northwesterly flow pattern aloft. This flow is the result of a building ridge over the Rockies and longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region. Over the coming days, several embedded shortwaves are expected to push through this flow and pass overhead, helping to provide large scale ascent to the local region. Pairing this with PWATs of around 2 inches and a highly unstable environment due to strong diurnal heating, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours.

Latest CAMs suggest that this coming afternoon/evening may be one of the more active days this week as a rather stout shortwave pushes into the local area. Although storms over our area may initially develop along the sea breeze boundary by the coast and spread via outflow boundaries, guidance is also suggesting that upstream storms, sparked by the shortwave aloft, may organize into an MCS and push southeastward throughout the day. Although a bit uncertain as to how much of the local area will be impacted by this MCS, confidence is higher for locations west of the Tombigbee River at this time. Although any storm that develops today will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall, the greatest threat for strong to severe weather will come with this MCS. Right now guidance has this MCS entering our Mississippi counties by as early as 2PM and pushing off the Alabama coast by or before 8PM. Damaging winds will be the greatest hazard from this complex. Heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding is also a concern. Latest HREF 24hr LPMMs suggest 3-5 inches of rain over portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, along with localized maximums of around 5-7 inches. If storms can train over the same areas for a long period of time, then these values may become realized. Rain chances quickly diminish this evening in the wake of the MCS.

As stated before, daily chances for scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected throughout the remainder of the week. Highest coverage looks to be over our coastal counties thanks to development along the sea breeze boundary. Each day comes with the risk of gusty to locally damaging downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding concerns. Some guidance suggests that another MCS may travel within the northwesterly flow and impact portions of the local area midweek. If this were to happen, then similar to today, damaging winds would be the primary impact. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days.

With the increase in rain chances, high temperatures are expected to trend back to seasonal norms. Highs in the low to mid 90s today should decrease to the upper 80s to low 90s by midweek. Heat indices throughout the period should generally remain just below Heat Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots of 108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out along the coast. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through The morning hours. Scattered to numerous showers and storms should start to develop across the area by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. /13

MARINE

Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 94 73 91 72 / 80 30 50 20 Pensacola 93 75 90 75 / 60 30 50 20 Destin 90 76 89 76 / 30 30 50 40 Evergreen 96 70 93 70 / 60 20 50 10 Waynesboro 94 72 93 70 / 70 20 30 10 Camden 94 71 93 71 / 40 10 20 10 Crestview 95 70 92 70 / 70 30 60 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.