textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Temperatures will turn much colder on Monday, with below normal temps through Wednesday. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed on Monday night, as wind chills fall into the teens to lower 20s.

- Strong winds over the marine area will create hazardous conditions for small craft Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Another day of above normal temps has taken shape across the area, as temps warm into the lower to mid 70s. This will be the last day of warmer temperatures, as the area sees quite a pattern change tonight and tomorrow. A strong upper low will quickly swing through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, a cold front currently extends from its parent low over the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward and into the Southern Plains. As the trough progresses eastward, the cold front will approach the area, reaching our western counties during the predawn hours on Monday. The front will move fairly quickly, exiting the area to our east by the late morning to early afternoon hours. Not expecting much in the way of precip or storms with this front, with light showers moving through along and just behind it.

The real impacts will be the windy conditions and plummeting temps as the front moves through and the arctic airmass settles in. Winds will remain below Wind Advisory criteria, but will be breezy during the day. Despite a stronger pressure gradient, wind speed and gust probabilities exceeding 39 mph remain low (<30%) over land. Our marine zones, especially the offshore waters, will flirt with Gale Warning conditions, but again, NBM and HREF probabilities remain low as well. Small Craft conditions are expected and we'll maintain the advisor for Monday and Tuesday.

As mentioned before, the pattern change will be relatively stark. With the cold front moving in during the predawn hours, the diurnal temperature curve won't be as we typically see. For areas west of I- 65, the high temp for the day will likely occur just after midnight, with temps falling the remainder of the day. Areas east of I-65 may warm up briefly, but temps around this time tomorrow will be roughly 20 to 30 degrees cooler than what we're seeing today. High pressure will settle into the region by Tuesday, with the arctic airmass hanging around through mid week. Temperatures will be below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, before temps begin to moderate heading into the New Year. Wind chills will dip into the teens to lower 20s for much of the area Monday night and a Cold Weather Advisory may become necessary.

After a couple of dry, albeit cold, days, another system will move through the area at the end of the period. Brief ridging on Thursday will quickly give way to a shortwave that develops over the Southern Plains and then swings through the area on Saturday. Showers will develop along the front Friday night and Saturday, with timing differences among the guidance making a low confidence forecast. /73

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

LIFR/IFR conditions will develop again this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will pass quickly through the area after midnight into Monday morning, clearing out the fog and low clouds. Light southerly winds 10-15 knots will abruptly shift to the northwest at around 15-20 knots behind the front with gusts as high as 30 knots. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Light southerly flow will persist today. Patchy dense fog may occur again tonight, but confidence is low. A strong northwest flow develops Monday as a cold front moves through. A Small Craft Advisory continues for late tonight through Tuesday night. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 48 62 30 / 0 50 20 0 Pensacola 74 53 66 33 / 0 40 30 0 Destin 73 55 67 34 / 0 40 40 0 Evergreen 77 46 60 27 / 0 50 30 0 Waynesboro 77 42 53 27 / 0 70 10 0 Camden 75 42 53 26 / 0 70 20 0 Crestview 77 51 65 28 / 0 30 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.