textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 746 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 - A HIGH RISK of rip currents is expected through Saturday for Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Minor coastal flooding is possible around Mobile Bay on Thursday. High Surf Advisory in effect from midnight through Friday.

- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. Heavy rainfall with localized excessive rainfall tonight through Friday could result in life threatening flash flooding across portions of the area. In addition, there will be the potential for isolated tornadoes late tonight into Thursday.

- Moderate to strong winds will will create hazardous conditions for small craft from this evening through Thursday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 746 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Tropical Storm Author is currently positioned near Galveston Bay along the Upper Texas Coast. The system remains highly sheared with much of the deep convection removed well to the east and associated with the mid level circulation which has detached from the low level center and is now just south of the Louisiana coast. There are some indications that the tropical cyclone may soon begin to undergo extratropical transition as there appears to be a developing frontal boundary developing in the vicinity of the Louisiana coastline where surface winds back southeasterly. In addition, notable mid level dry air is wrapping around the west side of the mid level vorticity center. As this transition continues over the next several hours, we are expecting the frontal boundary to become better defined as it lifts northeastward and onshore into southern Louisiana later this evening in response to an intensifying low level jet that will also spread northeastward to the east of the mid level low. The latest VAD profile from KHDC is currently showing 30-40kts between 1-2km and near surface wind gusts close to tropical storm force at buoys just south of the Louisiana coast. This gives us a reasonable idea regarding the positioning of the low level jet.

Surface observations across southeast Mississippi, coastal southwest Alabama and into the western Florida Panhandle show that temperatures remain in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. This very warm and humid airmass is supporting a continued moderately unstable conditions with MLCAPES ranging from 1500-2500j/kg. The latest 00z sounding from LIX shows this well with the greatest lapse rates and instability confined within the lowest 3km. The sounding is very moist in general with precip water amounts near 2.3".

As the mid level circulation lifts northeast tonight into Thursday, expect the enhanced low level jet now just offshore of Louisiana to overspread southeast Mississippi after midnight and then over the entire forecast area on Thursday. Enhanced lift along the low level jet axis and to the east of the mid level low should support the development of widespread convection. There may be a focus for extreme rainfall and potential tornadoes in the vicinity of the lifting frontal boundary. This will be especially true where low topped supercells can develop and latch on to the low level boundary in the presence of moderate thermodynamic instability and enhanced low level vorticity. Here, hodographs should become increasingly long and curved in the lowest 3km and where 0-3km CAPE should range between 150-200j/kg, which should be favorable for enhanced low level mesocyclones and risk for a few tornadoes. The only limiting factor will be the poor mid level lapse rates, but this may not be as much of a factor considering that most of the convection should remain shallow and take advantage of the more favorable low level instability and shear.

In addition to the severe weather threat, widespread heavy rainfall with localized excessive rainfall is likely over much of the area. Any storms that develop will be capable of high rainfall rates and potential training. In any area where this occurs, several inches of rainfall will be possible. Latest CAM guidance is still indicating the likelihood of widespread totals of 4-8 inches through Friday morning, but the latest 00z HRRR now has swaths of 10-15 inches across portions of southeast Mississippi into southwest Alabama. We will need to closely monitor the latest trends in the overall guidance later this evening to see if this upward trend continues in the other high resolution/hi-res ensemble guidance. If so, we will need to up our storm totals with the late evening forecast. This will be monitored very closely and updates provided as necessary. /JLH

..BEACH FORECAST

The rip current risk is now a HIGH for all Florida and Alabama beaches through Saturday afternoon. NWPS shows increasing wave action to 5-7 feet by late tonight into early tomorrow morning and a High Surf Advisory was issued through Friday evening for the entire Gulf coastline in our area. SS/97

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Satellite continues to show a shield of overcast over the central Gulf coast as deep tropical moisture overspreads the area from off the northwest Gulf. Deep convection well to the east of Tropical Storm Arthur's center of circulation on the upper TX coast, is confined well to our southwest south of the LA coast. Radar is showing mostly isolated shra lifting northward over the local area. Will carry shra as predominant weather this evening with bases ranging from MVFR/VFR categories. Vsby ok in the near term. Appears by and after 18.09Z through mid AM Thu, coverage of shra/tsra will increase markedly and cigs lower. Vsby likely to lower to IFR/perhaps LIFR categories in +RA. Southerly winds to be gusty at times around 25 kts. /10

MARINE

Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Light to moderate southwesterly winds become a moderate to strong southerly to southwesterly flow for tonight and Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the marine area from 10 pm this evening to 6 am Friday. The onshore flow gradually diminishes to a light to moderate southwesterly flow on Friday, with a primarily light southwesterly flow expected this weekend. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 84 77 90 / 90 90 70 80 Pensacola 79 86 80 90 / 70 90 70 70 Destin 79 86 80 88 / 60 90 70 70 Evergreen 74 81 73 87 / 70 100 80 90 Waynesboro 73 82 74 88 / 90 100 70 90 Camden 73 79 72 84 / 80 100 90 90 Crestview 75 82 75 88 / 70 90 80 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ630>632-634- 650-655-670-675.