textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity.

- Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. Super fog development, which could reduce visibilities to near zero, is possible near and around prescribed burns/wildfires.

- A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

An upper ridge over the extreme southeastern states retreats to over the Gulf through Thursday night as an upper trof progresses across much of the eastern states. The upper ridge begins to build back into the region on Friday while a large upper trof advances across the western half of the CONUS. The large upper trof continues off across the eastern states this weekend, with an associated surface low bringing a cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. Prior to the frontal passage, light nocturnal winds and clear to mostly clear skies look to favor fog development each night. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire area tonight until 14Z Thursday. Subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge look to inhibit the potential for convective development through Saturday afternoon. Deep layer moisture will meanwhile begin to improve on Saturday, and looks sufficient to support mostly slight chance to chance pops for Saturday night as the front moves through, with slight chance pops lingering into Sunday morning. Dry conditions then prevail through Tuesday with a slight chance for rain returning to much of the area by Wednesday.

Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the lower to mid 80s with highs in the mid to upper 80s following for Friday. Saturday will have highs in the lower to mid 80s, then highs on Sunday will be cooler and in the lower to mid 70s. Daytime highs gradually trend warmer through Wednesday to mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows through Friday night tend to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, then trend cooler by Sunday night to range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Overnight lows then moderate by Wednesday night to range from the mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s near the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday night, then a low risk follows for Friday through Sunday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR flight category currently will degrade overnight to MVFR and IFR flight category as fog begins to develop. Expect reductions to LIFR and locally VLIFR flight category for both ceiling and visibility under areas of dense fog, particularly during the pre- dawn into daybreak hours. Fog should erode pretty quickly after sunrise, with the expectation for most locations to improve back to VFR flight category by mid morning. Winds remain generally light and variable tonight, becoming southerly to southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots during the day Thursday. /22

MARINE

Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A light southeasterly flow becomes more southerly by Thursday and continues through Saturday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1117 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

While afternoon humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels through the weekend, an elevated fire risk will continue across the area due to ongoing drought conditions. For Monday of next week, afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25%, and conditions will be closely monitored for possibly reaching Red Flag criteria. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 80 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 77 65 78 66 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 85 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 85 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 85 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...None.