textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Patchy frost in unprotected areas expected across our far northern zones late tonight.

- Strong marine winds through late tonight, especially for the Gulf waters, will create hazardous conditions for small craft operators.

- Temperatures rebound to well above normal by Sunday, followed by another round of possible severe storms Sunday night into Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

After last nights severe weather event our focus now shifts to another impactful system with increasing beach and marine hazards beginning Sunday evening through Monday night, and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms including damaging winds and possible tornadoes Sunday night into Monday morning.

Synopsis...

For the weekend...Surface high pressure will build across the region tonight. As winds become light by late tonight, low temperatures should range from 37 to 40 degrees inland and from 41 to 45 degrees along the coast. Temperatures around 50 degrees are expected at the beaches and barrier islands. With dewpoints in the middle 30s well inland, patchy frost in unprotected areas is expected late tonight. We will monitor the trend to determine if a Frost Advisory may be needed, but as a precaution it is a good idea to protect sensitive outdoor plants in vulnerable areas. With a surface ridge setting up across the southeast states Friday into Sunday, temps quickly warm back into the upper 70s and lower 80s over the weekend. The next chance of rain and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will occur Sunday night into Monday morning as a large upper trough is expected to dig south over the entire eastern CONUS, and another strong cold front approaches from the northwest.

Severe Weather Potential...

Weak upper difluence will gradually overspreading our forecast area ahead of the trough on Sunday with an ample warm and moist airmass with dewpoints in middle 60s and increasing mixed layer instability values approaching 900 to 1400j/kg, with the highest values closer to the coast. Modest shear for possible organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be in place ahead of another eventual QLCS, and we expect around 200-300 m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH to be present. In addition, sfc-6km Bulk Shear values are expected to be between 50-60 kts, with mid/upper lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. This will set the stage for any storms within the QLCS or the discrete activity to pose the potential for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. As always, these severe weather parameters will be monitored closely for any upward or downward trend. Currently the anticipated timing for discrete storms would be Sunday evening across portions of southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. The QLCS is expected to begin to enter southeastern Mississippi and far northwestern Alabama counties late Sunday evening and spread quickly eastward, similar to this last event.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur tonight through Sunday afternoon, increasing to MODERATE Sunday night through Tuesday. /22

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Gusty northerly winds will persist for the next 2-3 hours before winds gradually relax overnight. Winds turn easterly through the day on Friday. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Strong offshore flow continues through tonight, especially for the Gulf waters. Light easterly flow becomes established Friday through Saturday morning with seas trending lower. A light onshore flow will follow through the weekend, shifting to a strong northwesterly flow late Sunday night into Monday in the wake of the next cold front. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 41 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 47 68 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 49 67 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 38 73 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 38 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 38 70 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 38 74 43 79 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.