textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Beneficial rains end from west to east through Saturday morning. Additional rainfall amounts up to around 1 inch are possible along and east of I-65. - Strong northerly winds tonight into Saturday night will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Rain over the forecast area ends from west to east overnight into Saturday morning as a surface low moves across the north central Gulf and into the Big Bend area before exiting off into the western Atlantic. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible mainly over the southern portion of the area, but severe storms are not expected. Dry conditions follow through Tuesday. An upper low meanwhile advances into the western states on Monday, then becomes absorbed into a large positively tilted upper trof pattern which evolves over the central to southwest states through Tuesday night. The upper trof takes on a meridional orientation then broadens through Thursday while progressing into the eastern half of the CONUS, with an associated surface low meanwhile bringing a cold front through the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the front approaches, will have slight chance to chance pops on Wednesday, then chance to likely pops follow for Wednesday night into Thursday as the front moves through. Will need to continue to monitor for the potential of strong storm development mainly from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night depending on how the pattern plays out. Very dry deep layer air flows into the region in the wake of the front, and anticipate dry conditions to develop over the area on Friday and continue into Saturday. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for the western Florida panhandle beaches on Saturday and Saturday night, with a low risk otherwise anticipated through Monday. A moderate risk of rip currents follows for Tuesday. /29

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Light to moderate rain currently overspreads the entire local area, along with a few thunderstorms along the coast. MVFR flight categories will gradually lower to IFR over the next couple hours, likely continuing through the overnight hours. Rain chances begin to lower by daybreak and VFR conditions should return by the afternoon hours. Breezy northeasterly to northerly winds, with gusts to around 20-25 knots at times, will continue through the period. /96

MARINE

Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Moderate northeasterly to easterly winds will become a strong offshore flow tonight through Saturday as an area of low pressure moves across the marine areas. This will result in increasing and hazard seas for all small craft tonight through Saturday night. Widespread showers and potentially a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over the marine waters, especially from 20nm to 60nm late tonight and Saturday. Winds and waves will be higher with any thunderstorms. Winds and seas then diminish late Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a light onshore flow returning Monday afternoon through the middle of next week. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 53 72 48 75 / 100 20 0 0 Pensacola 56 72 53 74 / 100 50 0 0 Destin 58 73 56 75 / 100 70 0 0 Evergreen 50 72 43 75 / 100 40 0 0 Waynesboro 50 71 45 75 / 100 10 0 0 Camden 50 70 45 72 / 100 30 0 0 Crestview 53 73 45 76 / 100 60 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Saturday for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675.