textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Fire weather concerns today given the gusty winds and dry air combined with the ongoing severe to extreme drought.

- HIGH rip current risk for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches late Tuesday night through Friday. High surf with 5-7ft breakers are likely Wednesday and Thursday.

- Strong marine winds and high seas continue over the Gulf waters through Thursday with gusts to gale-force expected over the offshore waters on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Deep upper troughing will continue across the eastern US with drier northwesterly flow across our area. A stalled frontal boundary remains just off the coast through the day today. This boundary is expected to just sit offshore over the next few days as a couple weak shortwaves move through the flow. With each passing shortwave, we will expect the surface pressure gradient to strengthen leading to a couple days of rather blustery winds as surface high pressure strengthens over the Carolinas. Other than some gusty winds and heightened fire risk today, temperatures will be on the mild side behind the front with highs in the mid to upper 70s through Thursday. Once we get past midweek, High pressure will quickly build into the area by the weekend leading to dry conditions as temperatures warm back into the mid 80s. These conditions will likely not be good for our already ongoing drought as we will likely not see any appreciable rain through early next week.

Coastal Hazards... One thing to watch throughout the week will be the potential for some coastal hazards including increasing rip currents and high surf. Current surf heights are expected to reach 5 to 7 feet which may also result in minor coastal runup on some of the barrier islands through mid-week. A HIGH risk of rip currents and a high surf advisory are now in effect. BB-8

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Northeasterly winds will increase through the morning with occasional gusts to 20 knots. Winds gradually turn easterly through the day. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist into the morning behind a cold front that passed through area waters. This strong offshore flow will relax slightly and turn easterly by Tuesday afternoon before increasing once again late Tuesday night. Moderate to very strong easterly winds will persist through Friday. A Gale Warning is now in effect for open the Gulf waters out 20 to 60 nm beginning late Tuesday night. BB-8

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Potential for dangerous burning conditions will exist today as gusty easterly winds coupled with dry antecedent drought conditions. Given the strengthening surface gradient, wind gusts will likely reach the 20 to 25 mph range with sustained winds around 10 to 15 mph. Relative humidity values are expected to drop to around 25-30% or just above critical thresholds. We are right on the verge of needing Red Flag warnings and despite not reaching exact criteria the potential for dangerous fire conditions and rapid growth will still exist. We will have to keep an eye on conditions this afternoon and if they trend slightly more concerning then a Red Flag Warning may be needed by the morning. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 78 55 76 56 / 0 0 10 10 Pensacola 78 58 75 58 / 0 0 10 20 Destin 75 58 74 57 / 0 0 20 20 Evergreen 78 50 75 50 / 0 0 10 10 Waynesboro 77 50 76 53 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 76 50 74 50 / 0 0 10 10 Crestview 78 51 75 52 / 0 0 10 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ670-675.

Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ670- 675.