textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 - A Particularly Dangerous and Life Threatening Flash Flood Situation exists across the area with a High Risk for Flooding across portions of southeast Mississippi, coastal Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle. Considerable Flash Flooding is likely and Catastrophic Flash Flooding is possible today.

- Numerous marine hazards exist across the area. There remains a HIGH RISK of rip currents today through Saturday for Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Minor coastal flooding is possible around Mobile Bay today. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today through Friday. Strong winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft from this evening through Thursday night.

- There is a Slight Risk for Severe Storms today with a risk of a few tornadoes across much of the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The forecast remains on track as widespread showers and storms spreading northeastward across southeast LA and coastal MS move into interior southeast MS and interior southwest AL throughout the morning. Some of the storms have been severe with localized damaging winds and brief tornadoes. The Tornado Watch for Stone and George counties remains in effect until 8am this morning, and additional watches are expected later this morning as the storms march toward the northeast. Numerous to occasional widespread light to moderate showers with isolated embedded storms will affect the remainder of the area. All of this convection will spread inland away from the coast through mid afternoon before spreading back toward the coast late this afternoon and evening. Periods of very heavy rain will accompany the stronger storms with localized flooding possible. /22

..Remainder of the Forecast Period

The mid level low pressure system will eventually move to the northeast away from the area with a trailing cold front dropping south and eventually stalling across the area Friday into the first part of the weekend. This boundary will likely be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development both days. Deep tropical moisture and instability will remain along and south of wherever the boundary stalls and pose the threat for additional heavy rainfall and potentially renewed flash flooding. This set up will persist through the weekend.

By early next week, mid level ridging may temporarily build across the north central Gulf Coast with a slight reduction in storm coverage. This break will be short-lived as upper level troughing redevelops across the eastern half of the U.S. with several embedded shortwave troughs moving through the area in northwest flow aloft. This should bring a return to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by the middle of next week. Temperatures should remain tempered through the weekend with the high coverage of storms, but increase back into the 90s early next week with continued high humidity. This will result in increased heat indices during this period. We will continue to monitor this potential over the coming days as heat index values could approach heat advisory levels early next week. /JLH

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are spreading northeastward across southeast LA and coastal MS and will move into interior southeast MS and interior southwest AL throughout the morning. Numerous to occasional widespread light to moderate showers with isolated embedded storms will affect the remainder of the area. This convection will spread inland away from the coast and TAF sites through mid afternoon before spreading back toward the coast late this afternoon and evening. LIFR visibilites with perhaps instances of VLIFR visibilities look to be likely where the heaviest rain bands set up. Ceilings will be variable, hovering between MVFR/to IFR categories. Additional hazards to approaches/departures are southerly winds gusty at times potentially to 25 to 30 kts. /22

MARINE

Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A moderate to strong southerly to southwesterly flow will persist through tonight with seas ramping up to 7 to 9 feet today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most of the marine area until 6 am Friday. The onshore flow gradually diminishes to a light to moderate southwesterly flow on Friday, with a primarily light southwesterly flow expected this weekend. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 84 77 90 75 / 100 80 60 70 Pensacola 85 80 90 78 / 100 80 60 50 Destin 85 80 89 78 / 90 70 60 40 Evergreen 80 74 87 73 / 100 100 90 60 Waynesboro 81 75 88 73 / 100 80 90 60 Camden 79 72 84 71 / 100 90 100 50 Crestview 82 76 89 74 / 100 90 70 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ630>632-634- 650-655-670-675.