textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 - Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the waters of the western Florida panhandle and coastal zones. In addition to potential tropical storm force winds, locally heavy rainfall may be possible near the coast from Monday through Tuesday.

- High risk of rip currents beginning Monday evening for western Florida panhandle beaches and starting Tuesday for Alabama beaches.

- Heat Advisory in effect for southeast Mississippi until 7 pm today, and from 10 am until 7 pm on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Tropical Depression Two has formed off the west coast of Florida, and is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm by Monday morning while moving slowly northwestward. The system is expected to gradually turn to a westward movement and move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Per the forecast track, this system moves into southeast Louisiana late afternoon or early evening on Wednesday. Please the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Tropical Depression Two. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coastal portions of the western Florida panhandle and extends across the adjacent Gulf waters out 60 nm. It's possible that the Tropical Storm Watch may be extended westward to include coastal southwest Alabama on later updates, and a Wind Advisory may become necessary further inland. Other than potential wind impacts associated with this tropical system, there will be the potential for locally heavy rains mainly affecting the immediate coastal area from Monday into Tuesday which could lead to flooding issues.

Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for much of the area tonight, with the higher pops near the coast. For Monday, will have chance to likely pops for the southern portion of the area tapering to low rain chances further inland, with the likely pops confined mainly to portions of the western Florida panhandle. Rain chances trend higher on Tuesday with likely to categorical pops expected near and east of the I-65 corridor, with mostly chance pops elsewhere. For Wednesday, have gone with chance to likely pops for the southern portion of the area, with the higher pops near the coast, along with rain chances tapering to slight chance further inland. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 7 pm this afternoon for our southeast Mississippi counties due to heat index values up to 108, and another Heat Advisory is in effect for the same area from 10 am until 7 pm Monday for similar heat index values.

Have gone with a moderate risk of rip currents through Monday night for the Alabama beaches, after which a high risk is in effect from Tuesday through Wednesday night. For the western Florida panhandle beaches, will have a moderate risk through Monday, then a high risk is in effect from Monday night through Wednesday night. A moderate risk of rip currents follows for Thursday for all beach areas. Surf height values trend much higher on Tuesday into Tuesday night, building from near 2 feet to 8-12 feet. This indicates that a High Surf Warning will likely become necessary at some point between late Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. From Thursday into Saturday, am anticipating a return to a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered showers and storms developing each afternoon. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to move south across the forecast area this afternoon, bringing local drops of VFR levels to mid level MVFR levels. Activity will decrease in the evening, with northerly winds 5 to 10 knots becoming variable. Upper end MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to develop, with isolated rainshowers possible east of I-65. Winds are expected to more northeasterly, whilst rising to 5 to 10 knots. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Tropical Depression Two has formed off the west coast of Florida, and is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm by Monday morning while moving slowly northwestward. The system is expected to gradually turn to a westward movement and move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Winds strengthen over the marine area on Tuesday then diminish Wednesday night. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 96 75 94 / 20 30 10 50 Pensacola 76 94 77 91 / 30 60 50 80 Destin 77 92 78 89 / 20 60 60 80 Evergreen 72 93 73 92 / 20 10 20 50 Waynesboro 75 97 76 96 / 20 20 10 20 Camden 73 92 74 91 / 20 10 10 20 Crestview 72 94 74 91 / 30 60 30 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through late Wednesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ202-204-206.

High Rip Current Risk from Monday evening through late Wednesday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067- 075-076-078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ634>636-655-675.