textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Increasing concern for severe storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the potential for strong tornadoes (up to EF2 in intensity) and strong, damaging winds (70+mph).

- High risk of rip currents for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches tonight into Thursday.

- Patchy dense fog is possible in the pre-dawn hours this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Fog remains the main concern this morning before all eyes turn to the potential for storms tonight. Patchy, potentially dense, fog will develop over the next several hours, especially across the southern portion of the area. Guidance isn't as aggressive with the fog signal in the pre-dawn hours this morning across inland counties.

Meanwhile, a potent shortwave trough progresses across Texas this morning and afternoon and quickly pivots across the northern Gulf Coast. Isolated showers are possible west of I-65 this afternoon in the increasing onshore flow. Some of the guidance shows a surface low developing in the evening hours and passing north of our area. CAMs are showing more than ample shear and instability spreading overhead by midnight as a squall line slides into the area. There has been a trend in some of the recent CAMs for a few isolated severe storms to develop out in front of the line by 9-10pm across southeast Mississippi, along with a slightly faster progression of the line. Given the improvement in the environment out ahead of this squall line, we are starting to become more concerned with the potential for strong tornadoes (up to EF2 in intensity) and strong, damaging winds (70+mph). The line will be knocking on our doorstep as early as 10-11pm (impacting our southeast Mississippi counties first) and quickly sliding east to the I-65 corridor as early as 12- 1am. Latest high-res guidance has the line of storms east of our area by 6am, which is a solid 2-4 hours earlier than the high-res guidance showed yesterday. We will note that some of the latest guidance is showing more discrete activity along a broken line focused across our southernmost counties (rather than a solid squall line), which is certainly a possibility, but does not really change the overall impacts of a few strong tornadoes and the potential for strong, damaging winds. While SPC does now have the entire area highlighted in a SLIGHT (level 2 of 5 risk) risk, we would not be surprised if the risk is increased again across a portion of our area. Heavy rainfall (1.5-2.5 inches) is also expected, but the overall progressive nature of this line should limit the potential for flooding.

In the wake of the line of storms and front, gusty northerly winds are expected throughout the day on Thursday as a surface high builds into the region. The area remains dry through much of the weekend with isolated showers possible late Sunday afternoon. Another strong cold front swings across the area late Sunday into early Monday. Temperatures will crater behind this next front with highs in the 50s-60s on both Monday and Tuesday with lows tanking into the 30s- 40s area-wide both nights.

Beach Forecast - HIGH risk for rip currents remains in effect tonight through Thursday with the risk quickly dropping to a LOW Friday through the weekend. 07/mb

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and early evening with a moderate southerly wind around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots. A cold front will approach from the northwest after midnight as ceilings drop to MVFR ahead of the front. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany the front as visbys will likely drop to IFR to LIFR as the storms pass. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the line before winds turn northwesterly behind the front around 15 to 20 knots gusting to 30 knots. Rain should subside by sunrise as skies clear throughout the morning tomorrow. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Patchy fog remains possible near the coast this morning. Southerly flow will gradually increase through the day ahead of a cold front. A line of storms is expected to pass over the marine area overnight with small craft conditions expected in the increasing northerly flow behind the line of storms. Small craft conditions will persist through Thursday evening. Another round of small craft conditions to potentially gale conditions is expected early next week. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 54 67 43 73 / 90 40 0 0 Pensacola 58 68 48 68 / 90 50 0 0 Destin 60 69 49 68 / 80 70 0 0 Evergreen 52 66 39 73 / 90 50 0 0 Waynesboro 48 64 39 72 / 100 20 0 0 Camden 48 62 40 71 / 100 40 0 0 Crestview 56 70 41 73 / 90 60 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from midnight CDT tonight through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from midnight CDT tonight through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 5 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670-675.