textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 707 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- High rain chances continue through Saturday with the potential for locally heavy rainfall mainly Friday and Saturday. A few strong storms capable of producing strong wind gusts will be possible.

- High temperature are expected to increase next week with heat indices potentially ranging from 100-107 degrees.

UPDATE

Issued at 707 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Forecast remains relatively on track this evening. Based off latest radar trends, went ahead and increased PoPs along the coast through the rest of the evening. Otherwise, no other updates were needed. Another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop tonight, starting over coastal southwest Alabama, and eventually spreading into northwest Florida and interior south central Alabama. Storms are expected to be slow- moving, and with PWATs at around 2.2-2.4 inches, storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers. 6hr PMMs from the 12z run of the HREF, along with some of the latest (18z-23z) CAM runs do hint at a few QPF bulls-eyes of around 4-6 inches tonight, mainly over coastal counties. If these values become realized, then a localized flash flood threat may materialize tonight into tomorrow morning. Additionally, a developing surface feature off the Mississippi coast will help to generate strong surface vorticity across our marine zones tonight. This could lead to an elevated potential for waterspouts as we go through the night and into Friday morning. /96

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The upper ridge over the area will continue to weaken and move east as a broad trough moves into the central plains. Ahead of this trough, a weak frontal boundary will move into the Tennessee Valley and stall before dissipating Friday night. Deep southerly to southwesterly flow will aid to increase PWATs back to around 2.1-2.3". Weak troughing persists west of the MS River through the weekend. These factors will combine to generate scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, starting in the morning near the coast and spreading inland through the day. The ridge builds back across the area early next week, resulting in lower rain chances and warming temps.

The clouds and rain will keep temps in the upper 80s and low 90s through the weekend. Low to mid 90s return for the start of next week. A moderate risk of rip currents continues through tonight with a low risk expected through the remainder of the period. /13

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at issuance time. Throughout the night, ceilings across much of the area should lower to MVFR as another round of showers and storms develops and moves into the area. Highest coverage looks to occur during the mid to late morning hours for areas east of Mobile Bay/Tombigbee River. Expect temporary reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. This round of activity should diminish by the early afternoon hours, with another round possibly starting over southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama by the mid afternoon hours. Light and variable winds tonight will become a light southerly flow by the late morning hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 88 74 90 / 70 60 50 70 Pensacola 78 88 77 89 / 60 80 60 80 Destin 79 88 79 88 / 50 70 60 70 Evergreen 71 90 71 91 / 20 70 40 70 Waynesboro 72 90 72 92 / 20 90 40 70 Camden 72 89 72 91 / 20 60 50 70 Crestview 73 89 73 91 / 50 60 50 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.