textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

- Strong winds over our local Gulf waters will create hazardous conditions for small craft through this morning.

- Dense fog may become a concern next week as temperatures and humidity levels increase.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

A cold front is currently moving through our local area this morning and likely will be pushing offshore shortly. This will allow for a brief, reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air to push in and will linger through tonight. Highs today will top out in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area, with lows tonight will range from the upper 20s to low 30s inland to the mid to upper 30s closer to the coast.

By Sunday, high pressure will build in across the Appalachians, eventually sinking into the western Atlantic/northeast Gulf by Monday. This will allow for a light onshore flow to develop, leading to a much more mild weather pattern for much of next week. We will likely remain dry through Tuesday afternoon, with rain chances increasing by late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a southern stream trough passes overhead. Forcing from this shortwave, along with PWATs increasing to 1.1-1.4 inches, should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop across the area. Current guidance suggests that poor lapse rates/warm mid-levels should help to keep instability values very limited across the area. Although an embedded storm or two cannot be ruled out, we are not anticipating any severe weather, or heavy rainfall, with this activity at this time. We will briefly dry out after the shortwave passes. Next cold front looks to arrive by next weekend, bringing with it higher rain chances. With a high amount of run-to-run inconsistency from deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding the timing, strength, and trajectory of the synoptic features at play, overall confidence in rain chances, as well as storm potential, remains very low at this time. We'll keep an eye on trends over the next week.

Highs next week will top out in the low to mid 70s, with even a few locations possibly reaching the upper 70s. These are roughly 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year. Lows will only drop into the 50s. These warmer temperatures, along with light onshore winds and higher humidity values, may lead to dense fog concerns next week. Latest SREF probabilities are beginning to show a small signal starting as early as Sunday night, with an even stronger, more widespread signal for Monday night. The rip current risk remains low through the period. /96

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Light northwesterly winds at issuance time will become northerly and increase to around 10 knots by daybreak. Winds become light once again by this evening. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1231 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Moderate to strong northwesterly to northerly flow this morning will ease throughout the day today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM this morning for our local Gulf waters. A light onshore flow returns for Sunday and will linger through at least midweek. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 63 34 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 62 39 62 48 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 60 40 60 50 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 60 30 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 60 31 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 57 30 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 63 30 65 41 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655- 670-675.