textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 653 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 - Isolated showers and storms through Friday with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

- Temperatures will continue to rise through the rest of the week and into early next week. Forecast heat indices in the 100 to 107 range this weekend and 105 to 111 next week for portions of the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The late afternoon/early evening convection has already dissipated and we do not expect any further development through the remainder of the night. Removed the slight chance of early evening showers and thunderstorms for areas across inland southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, and updated the Zone Forecast Product. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

An upper and surface ridge will gradually move west across the northern Gulf through the weekend. Meanwhile, a weak sfc/upper low is expected to develop across the northeastern Gulf this weekend and move northeast through early next week as a trough moves off the east coast. Moisture levels will increase Saturday into Sunday with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms especially across the eastern half of the area. The upper ridge west of the area will expand eastward late this weekend into early next week bringing lower rain chances and hotter temps. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s through Saturday, warming into the mid and upper 90s for next week. The higher moisture levels combined with increased temps will lead to increasing heat stress. Heat Index values will climb into the 100 to 107 range this weekend and 105 to 111 or higher next week. A Heat Advisory will likely be required with Excessive Heat products possible as well for parts of the area next week. /13

MARINE

Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 96 76 96 / 10 10 20 20 Pensacola 78 96 78 96 / 0 10 20 40 Destin 79 95 79 94 / 0 10 30 60 Evergreen 72 93 73 93 / 10 10 20 30 Waynesboro 73 95 74 95 / 10 10 10 10 Camden 73 90 74 91 / 10 10 20 20 Crestview 74 95 74 95 / 0 10 30 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.