textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, and possibly late in the week as well.

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk will occur mainly Tuesday night through Wednesday as southwesterly winds increase over the Gulf, and possibly late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A series of vigorous systems lead to the formation of a large positively tilted upper trof over the central and eastern CONUS by Tuesday night which progresses into the eastern half of the CONUS by Wednesday night. An associated surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As the large upper trof moves off into the western Atlantic going into Saturday, a surface ridge builds into the forecast area, then a weak reinforcing cold front moves through the area Friday night. Have continued with likely to categorical pops shifting across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with dry conditions developing in the afternoon. Instability remains limited with the frontal passage, with just some embedded storms expected over the marine area and near the coast. Dry conditions are expected over the area from Wednesday night all the way through Tuesday, despite the weak front moving through Friday night, as deep layer moisture looks too limited to consider pops for an extended period.

Highs on Tuesday will be 65-70, a change from the cool/cold temperatures of the past week or so. Highs Wednesday into Thursday trend to around 50, then trend warmer to the upper 60s/lower 70s by Sunday with similar values continuing into Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night range from the 40s to mid 50s then lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will be mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Overnight lows moderate Friday night into Monday night, by which time lows range from the mid 40s to around 50. A low risk of rip currents Tuesday will be followed by a moderate risk Tuesday night and Wednesday. A low risk of rip currents is expected Wednesday night for Alabama beaches, though a moderate risk continues for the western Florida panhandle beaches. A low risk of rip currents follows for Thursday, then for Friday a low risk of rip currents for Alabama beaches continues, although the western Florida panhandle beaches will have a moderate risk. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected for much of the period, except for potential IFR/MVFR ceilings developing Tuesday evening over portions of interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. Calm or light southwest winds become southwesterly 10-15 knots on Tuesday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A light to moderate southwesterly flow begins to increase Tuesday night then switches to a moderate to strong northwesterly flow on Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Strong offshore winds Wednesday night diminish Thursday into Thursday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary by Wednesday afternoon well offshore, then for the entire area Wednesday night before tapering off into Thursday evening. A moderate to strong westerly flow develops on Friday, switches to the northwest Friday night then diminishes on Saturday. Another Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters Friday afternoon into the evening hours. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 38 67 52 61 / 0 0 80 50 Pensacola 42 66 56 62 / 0 0 80 80 Destin 44 65 56 64 / 0 0 70 90 Evergreen 31 68 47 57 / 0 0 90 60 Waynesboro 34 67 44 54 / 0 30 90 20 Camden 34 66 46 54 / 0 20 90 40 Crestview 33 67 49 62 / 0 0 80 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.