textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1039 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026 - Dense fog development becomes likely by Wednesday night. Dense marine fog will also become an increasing concern by midweek.

- Next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms will come Friday into Saturday ahead of the next cold front. The potential for strong to severe storms will be monitored over the coming days.

- Strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft Saturday night through Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1029 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

A large upper trof evolves over the western and central states through Thursday and slowly advances eastward, eventually progressing across the eastern states this weekend. A surface low develops over the central Plains Wednesday night in response to a leading shortwave system and moves off across the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday morning. As the surface low continues well off to the north later on Friday, a cold front will extend down to near the Ohio/Mississippi River confluence and over into eastern Texas, where a secondary surface low will have formed. This secondary surface low deepens while lifting off into the northeast states, and in the process brings the cold front through the forecast area on Saturday. A series of shortwaves move across the region Friday into Friday night prior to the frontal passage on Saturday. The best deep layer lift looks to predominately affect the northwest portion of the area Friday afternoon into the evening hours, then shift eastward across the entire area late Friday night into Saturday morning, with the frontal passage following shortly after.

Have gone with chance to likely pops for Friday, with the higher pops over the western portion of the area, then pops trend to likely to categorical for the entire area for Saturday. Pops taper to dry conditions by Sunday afternoon in the wake of the front. The 850 mb jet increases to 30-40 knots over the northwest portion of the area Friday afternoon, then the remainder of the area Friday night before diminishing on Saturday. MLCAPE values for the most part remain limited on Friday, but higher values of 500-750 J/kg may be realized Friday afternoon into the evening over the northwestern portion of the area. Similar MLCAPE values are possible over the entire area overnight and until the front moves through on Saturday. Will continue to monitor for the potential of strong to possibly some severe storms from Friday afternoon into the overnight hours, which could extend until the frontal passage on Saturday, although shear should be trending downward by that point.

Prior to this upcoming active weather period, dry conditions are expected through Wednesday, with isolated convection possibly developing Thursday afternoon roughly along and east of I-65. There is some potential for fog development overnight, although it's not clear just yet if the surface flow will sufficiently relax and could end up favoring low stratus. The potential for dense fog development looks to increase especially by Wednesday night. Unseasonably mild temperatures continue through Friday with daytime highs 15-20 degrees above normal (mid-upper 70s), and rather mild lows 20-28 degrees above normal (50s trending to 60s). In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be about 5 degrees below normal from Sunday through Tuesday. Lows Sunday night and Monday night will be in the 30s, and highs on Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday night, then a moderate risk follows for Friday, with a high risk anticipated for Saturday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

An IFR/MVFR ceiling develops across the area overnight, with localized LIFR/VLIFR conditions in fog possible. Conditions improve to MVFR/VFR Wednesday morning, with VFR conditions expected by Wednesday afternoon. Southwesterly winds diminish to 5 knots or less overnight, then increase to 5-10 knots on Wednesday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1029 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow becomes southeasterly on Thursday and continues into Friday. Dense marine fog development becomes likely by Wednesday night. A strong offshore flow develops Saturday night in the wake of a cold front, then diminishes on Monday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for most of the marine area Saturday night through Monday morning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 61 75 60 75 / 10 0 0 20 Pensacola 62 73 62 73 / 10 10 10 20 Destin 62 71 62 71 / 10 10 10 20 Evergreen 58 77 57 77 / 10 10 0 20 Waynesboro 59 76 58 76 / 10 0 0 10 Camden 58 75 56 75 / 10 10 0 10 Crestview 59 77 58 76 / 10 10 10 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.