textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches on Tuesday. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the northwestern portion of the forecast area.

- Localized patchy fog will be possible late tonight and late Tuesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Forecast on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

An upper ridge builds across the extreme southeast states through Tuesday then weakens going into Thursday before rebuilding late this weekend. A large upper trof pattern located mostly over the western half of the CONUS eventually progresses mostly across the interior eastern states through this weekend, and in the process maintains a southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. A series of shortwaves move through the southwesterly flow over the area meanwhile, which along with a weak sea breeze circulation developing each day will lead to convective development. That said, subsidence effects associated with the nearby upper ridge are anticipated to make for a mainly dry day on Tuesday, then going into Friday tend to limit convective development over eastern portions of the area. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops on Wednesday for much of the area, then for Thursday will have slight chance to chance pops mainly west of I-65.

While the upper ridge is anticipated to rebuild going into the weekend, it also becomes oriented mainly across the Florida peninsula. Predominately likely pops return for Friday through Sunday over western portions of the area, while further to the east pops gradually trend to chance pops. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight and late Tuesday night, with the potential for some localized thick fog. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through tonight, then a High Risk follows for Tuesday. A moderate risk is anticipated for Wednesday with a low risk for Thursday and Friday. /29

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

VFR flight category generally prevails across the area with some spots nearer the coast still dealing with a broken MVFR ceiling from a cumulus field associated with peak afternoon heating. VFR flight category should return for all areas near or shortly after sunset until we see MVFR to IFR ceilings return late tonight into early Tuesday morning. These should lift fairly quickly after daybreak, with most locations returning back to VFR by mid morning. Winds will continue to be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots through Tuesday, relaxing to below 5 knots during the night tonight. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through Saturday. Seas will build slightly through tonight then diminish Wednesday into Thursday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 72 84 72 85 / 10 0 0 10 Destin 71 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 66 91 67 90 / 10 20 10 30 Waynesboro 71 90 70 89 / 0 10 10 30 Camden 68 89 69 88 / 0 0 10 30 Crestview 66 91 67 91 / 10 20 0 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.