textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 151 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - Scattered storms expected each afternoon and evening this weekend into the coming week with gusty downburst winds being the main threat.

- Warming trend is possible next week with the heat index potentially soaring to 105-111 across portions of the area.

- There is a moderate (40%) probability of tropical development over the northern Gulf over the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Through Tuesday...An upper low over the northeastern Gulf meanders westward over the northern Gulf as an upper high over the western tropical Atlantic builds west over the Caribbean and Southeast. Small differences in the path of this low and its associated surface low are leading to various probabilities in the development of a possible tropical system over the northern Gulf. The further south of the northern Gulf the surface low passes, the greater the chance of a tropical system developing. Guidance varies in the path/development/speed. As of the 2pm update, NHC is advertising a 40% chance of developing into a tropical system as it meanders east. The current forecast is based upon the upper low taking a west- northwest track, with the associated surface low taking a more northwesterly path, moving inland over the western Florida panhandle. With this track, deep layer moisture generally remains over the forecast area and nearby, with a quick band of low moisture moving over the forecast area Sunday night. The upper system weakens, with most guidance advertising an upper trough over the northern Gulf by Tuesday evening. Highest PoPs remain south of the coast through the short term. Over land, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms see a bit of a downward trend as best instability decreases with increasing cloud cover as the main circulation moves over the forecast area. Enough instability is present (MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg each day) for strong to severe storms. Very weak wind shear will help to lean any storms towards a pulse type severe.

With the better up subsidence over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, combined with increased cloud cover over eastern portions of the forecast area, a west to east gradient in high temperatures is expected. High temperatures ranging from the upper 90s over and west of the Mississippi/Alabama state line, with low 90s east are expected. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected. Heat indices creep upwards into the coming week, with Heat Advisory levels expected along and west of the Mississippi/Alabama state line Sunday, west of the Tombigbee River by Tuesday.

Wednesday on, the upper low/trough mixes out, with an upper ridge over the Southern Plains building east over the Southeast. PoPs decrease as upper subsidence increases, with a weak cold front bringing a bit drier airmass over the Southeast mid week. Even with the increasing upper subsidence, cooler air moves over the forecast area the end of the week behind the front, with temperatures dropping below seasonal norms. High Heat Indices continue to be a problem for the forecast area Wednesday, dropping below Advisory levels for Thursday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a light to at times moderate offshore flow will limit onshore swell, with a Low Risk of Rip Currents into the early part of the week. Increasing onshore swell and an increasing tidal range will increase the Rip Risk to Moderate to High Wednesday on. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Main focus for this afternoon will be isolated to scattered TSRA development thru this evening. In any one storm, gusty, erratic winds 30-40kts and reduced flight categories from periodic lower VIS/CIGs can be expected. Outside of any activity, expect prevailing VFR with a SCT Cu field around 040-050.

Additionally, will monitor a complex of +TSRA developing and approaching eastern terminals late this evening/tonight, primarily 02Z - 09Z. Confidence is low how far west this complex can advance before dissipating, but could impact KPNS & KJKA terminals overnight with brief heavy rain and gusty winds. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A developing system over the Gulf will bring increasing flow, mainly south of the coast into the coming week. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed in the coming week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 96 75 96 / 30 50 40 60 Pensacola 77 93 77 94 / 60 70 30 60 Destin 77 91 77 91 / 70 60 30 70 Evergreen 73 93 72 93 / 30 60 40 50 Waynesboro 75 98 75 97 / 10 20 30 30 Camden 74 91 74 92 / 10 50 40 30 Crestview 73 93 72 94 / 70 60 30 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.