textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 702 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Hot and humid conditions return with heat indices in the 100 to 107 range today through this weekend.

- A MODERATE risk of rip currents continues today through early next week for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, becoming a HIGH risk by Tuesday.

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly early next week bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 702 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are impacting parts of southeast Mississippi with a stronger cell entering Choctaw County. This activity should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating over the next couple hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. 98/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The hot temperatures continue today. Similar to yesterday, there could be some isolated storms along the sea breeze this afternoon. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s will dominate through Sunday with some relief early next week as rain chances increase. Heat indices through Sunday and for areas with little to no rain along the coast on Monday are expected to be in the 100-107 range. Low temperatures through the weekend will be in the upper 70s to near 80, especially along the coast, which will provide little to no relief. A more typical summertime diurnal pattern for convection will begin into the weekend with the ridge becoming less dominant over the area.

Periods of heavy rainfall and flooding looks increasingly likely with a pattern change as the current ridge breaks down and we are influenced by an approaching trough. WPC placed the northwest portions of our area within a slight risk for excessive rainfall for day 4 (Monday) and nearly all of the CWA in the slight for day 5 (Tuesday). I would expect a categorical increase as the event draws closer and a possible day 5 slight risk to be introduced tomorrow for next Wednesday. Ensembles show some differences with the strength of the trough, boundary, and the associated precipitation footprint, however confidence continues to increase for multiple periods of heavy rainfall next week. Anomalous deep moisture will move into the area by Monday with expected PWATs of 2.1-2.25". Using climatology, this above the 90th percentile (1.96") and some areas could approach the daily max of 2.29". Precipitation totals will highly depend on where the boundary sets up over our area. This will be monitored in the coming days as a more refined picture becomes evident.

BEACH FORECAST - The rip current risk will remain MODERATE and continue through early next week as we have dominant onshore flow. RCMOS shows rip current risk increasing to HIGH for our beaches Tuesday with the increasing onshore flow. SS/97

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period for most of the area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible Saturday afternoon, mainly over the interior. Light and variable winds tonight will become generally southwesterly around 5-10 knots Saturday afternoon behind the sea breeze boundary. 98/25

MARINE

Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal pattern will be in place through the weekend, with westerly to northwesterly flow developing at night and southwesterly flow developing during the day. Moderate onshore flow returns for the early to middle part of next week. Rain chances will also be on the increase next week. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near and around thunderstorms. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 93 75 93 / 0 20 0 10 Pensacola 77 93 78 93 / 0 20 10 10 Destin 78 90 79 90 / 0 10 0 10 Evergreen 74 96 75 94 / 0 30 10 20 Waynesboro 74 94 75 94 / 10 20 10 20 Camden 75 94 75 92 / 20 30 10 20 Crestview 74 96 75 95 / 0 30 10 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.