textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 715 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents continues through tonight for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. - Rain chances remain elevated this weekend, particularly over the western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible, which could lead to localized flooding concerns.

- Heat indices may reach the 100 degree mark by the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 715 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A very moist airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 values nearing 2.5") and a passing mid level shortwave trough fired a round of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Mississippi this afternoon, with bands of convection continuing to fire and move inland from the north-central Gulf. This convection has spread over most of the forecast area by 6pm/23Z, with a modest line of showers and thunderstorms moving east over southwest Alabama. The period of training cells bringing localized water issues over southeast Mississippi has eased, though a few FFWs remain in effect. Some local ponding issues may occur into the evening hours over southwest Alabama, especially with any focusing of convection on any outflow boundary left behind by the weakening eastward-moving outflow. Limited instability will limit any stronger storms, especially as the day's heating is lost through the evening. The big picture with the forecast is pretty much on track for tonight, but will continue to monitor for any water issues. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

06.12Z upper air maps show a short wave upper ridge at high levels over the Gulf while at mid-levels the ridge axis is positioned more over the FL Peninsula. In the lower levels with the ridge east of the area, a weakly reflected inverted surface trof of low pressure is lifting northward over southeast LA/southern MS. The environment is deeply moist and primed. The 06.12Z sounding at LIX shows PWAT's ~2.25" and very near the maximum of the sounding climatology. East of the trof, bands of moderate to locally heavy rainfall aligned north to south will spread in off the Gulf in the near term and lift north and northeast through the area. The concern continues to be flooding, but the good news is radar trends thus far has shown limited residence time over any one area in particular to result in water problems. Although we saw a short break over the last several days, excessive rainfall in May has re-charged soil moisture structure. If storms begin to show repeated motions over the same areas the threat of runoff, rapid filling of low lying areas and resultant flooding problems could evolve where drainage is poor this afternoon. The national centers have outlooked these areas for a slight risk of excessive rainfall.

Deep layer moisture/and better ascent looks to be aligned from the TN Valley to the Gulf coast tonight, on the northwest periphery of the southeast US mid level ridge axis. There are indications though, coverage should begin to decrease with isolated to scattered showers/perhaps a few storms mixed continuing to move through the area this evening/overnight. Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected Sunday with increased coverages mainly west of I-65. Storms should start to develop by around daybreak, spreading inland throughout the afternoon. Once again, there could be some localized flooding in spots where storms move over the same areas. Rain chances drop off Sunday night.

Upper ridging begins to build back into the area for early next week. Subsidence from this upper ridge should help to lower rain chances across the area for Monday and Tuesday. A more typical summertime pattern (isolated to scattered mainly afternoon pulse-type storms) looks to setup Wednesday thru Friday. A diurnal decrease in storms expected each night.

Highs Sunday in the lower/mid 80's and some 2 to 7 degrees below normal for June 7th, will warm into the upper 80's/lower 90s and a few degrees above normal for the upcoming week. With afternoon dewpoints in the lower/mid 70's, heat indices could reach near the century mark mid to late week. Little change in overnight lows. Lower/mid 70's and well above normal through the period.

Feel it wise to hold onto a High Risk of Rip Currents through tonight despite latest data suggesting a category reduction in the risk. Latest rip current model data suggests that the risk trends back to moderate Sunday. As winds weaken, the rip current risk is favored to drop back to a low risk by Monday night into the middle of the week. /10

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 715 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Mainly MVFR to VFR cigs are expected through the period with tempo drops to IFR cigs and visbys in and around showers and storms. Rain coverage should decrease through the evening and overnight. Scattered showers and storms with locally heavy rain develop once again on Sunday morning and increase in coverage by afternoon, mainly along and west of I-65. Expect brief drops to IFR visbys and localized gusty winds from any storms. A general southerly flow around 5-10 knots is expected through the period. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A light to moderate south to southeast flow is expected as we move into the remainder of the weekend and open up the new week. A brief period of easterly flow on Tuesday returns to south to southeast by the middle of next week. Seas to gradually lower.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 85 73 86 / 60 70 10 10 Pensacola 76 85 75 87 / 40 30 10 0 Destin 76 85 75 87 / 20 20 10 0 Evergreen 71 84 70 87 / 30 80 20 10 Waynesboro 72 84 72 85 / 50 80 30 40 Camden 71 82 70 84 / 40 90 40 30 Crestview 72 86 70 90 / 20 40 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.