textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents through Saturday night for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Surf builds to 5-6 feet through tonight. High surf combined with high tide will lead to overwash and minor inundation issues along the coast this afternoon.

- Small craft conditions continue through today then taper off and end this evening. - Rain chances increase this weekend, particularly over the western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible, which could lead to more flooding concerns.

UPDATE

Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The forecast is on track with no changes planned at the moment. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

One last dry and comfortable night is underway as high pressure lingers over the Appalachians, allowing for a cold air damming pattern to continue across the southeast US. This high will begin to move into the western Atlantic later today, resulting in winds shifting from easterly to southeasterly over the course of the day. We continue to anticipate a rather abrupt pattern change to occur today as a non-tropical surface trough/low attempts to form along a stationary front south of Louisiana. As this feature lifts northward, deep moisture will also surge back to the north, likely entering our coastal Alabama and southeast Mississippi counties by the late afternoon/evening hours. Moisture may have a tougher time advecting into the eastern half of the local area due to a building upper ridge over Florida. This may help to set up a rather noticeable moisture gradient across the local area through the weekend, where multiple rounds of showers and storms impact our western zones, whereas coverage is more isolated to scattered over our eastern zones. Not anticipating any severe weather due to shear values remaining very low. That being said, storms that do develop over our western zones would likely be slow-moving, and with very high PWATs in place, storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers. NBM 95th percentiles are suggesting localized rainfall amounts up to 4-6 inches on Saturday for areas west of the Tombigbee River. If any boundaries are able to set up and storms are able to train over the same locations, then these values may become realized and a localized flash flooding threat could materialize, especially considering the copious amounts of rainfall we have seen over the past couple weeks.

Another concern we have through Saturday is with regards to beach conditions. A High Risk of Rip Currents remains in effect through Saturday night as strong easterly winds turn a bit more southeasterly. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect through tonight for large, breaking waves of 5-6 feet. Lastly, although coastal flooding is not anticipated, stronger winds and high surf, combined with high tide, may promote overwash into some of our typical trouble spots, such as Fort Pickens, Dauphin Island, and northern portions of Mobile Bay. This could result in some localized minor inundation later this afternoon. Winds should start to weaken by Sunday, with beach conditions slowly improving as we get into early next week.

Upper ridging begins to build back into the area for early next week. Subsidence from this upper ridge should help to lower rain chances across the area for Monday and Tuesday, however, it also will likely bring warmer temperatures. Highs by next week should top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices may reach the 100 degree mark by Tuesday and into midweek. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Isolated to scattered convection is possible across much of southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama through much of the period. MVFR conditions will be possible with the stronger storms, with VFR conditions otherwise expected to prevail. A southeasterly flow at 10-15 knots develops today, then diminishes to around 5 knots or less tonight. /29

MARINE

Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Moderate to strong southeasterly winds diminish to a light to moderate flow Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory continues for nearly the entire marine area through today, then tapers off and ends this evening. A light to moderate southeasterly flow follows for Saturday through Monday, then becomes easterly to southeasterly on Tuesday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 85 72 83 73 / 40 30 80 30 Pensacola 85 75 86 76 / 20 10 40 10 Destin 85 73 86 75 / 10 0 20 0 Evergreen 89 64 89 70 / 0 0 20 0 Waynesboro 87 68 83 71 / 20 10 80 30 Camden 88 65 89 70 / 0 0 40 10 Crestview 89 64 89 69 / 0 0 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>634- 655-675.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ650-670.