textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1154 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

- A strong cold front will continue to sweep across the area this morning. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected tonight. Wind chills could drop to 10 degrees over interior counties and to 15 degrees over coastal counties. - Strong marine winds are expected to develop this afternoon and continuing through tonight behind the cold front. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

An upper-level trough digging southeastward is helping to push a strong cold front through the area this morning. Prior to its passage, dense fog will continue to develop across the southern half of the local area, including over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. A Dense Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 5am for land areas and 6am for marine areas. Additionally, widely scattered showers are also beginning to move into our northernmost counties. Rainfall with these showers is expected to remain light and we are not anticipating any thunderstorms. The front should clear the area sometime around sunrise, effectively dissipating our fog and ending our rain chances. Behind the front, winds will become gusty out of the north (wind gusts up to 30-35 mph in spots) as an arctic high pressure system builds in to our north, creating a tight pressure gradient across the local area. This strong cold air advection will cause temperatures to plummet throughout the day (our high will likely occur prior to sunrise).

We are still anticipating the coldest air of the season for tonight. Lows are expected to drop down into the upper teens north of Highway 84 to the mid 20s along the immediate coastline. In fact, we may actually get to within a few degrees of our daily record low for KMOB (December 15th record low: 20 degrees (1901) Forecast low: 22 degrees). Factoring in the continued breezy conditions, apparent temperatures (wind chills) could drop to as low as 10-16 degrees north of I-10, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. With temperatures and wind chills this low, we have issued a Cold Weather Advisory across the entire area, although it should be noted that a few locations may flirt with Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather.

Very cold temperatures continue through Monday night. Even under sunny skies, highs on Monday will likely only remain in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s areawide. By Tuesday and into the middle of next week, flow aloft becomes more westerly to southwesterly and high pressure shifts off to our east, allowing for temperatures to quickly moderate. In fact, highs by Thursday may warm back into the low 70s for some spots. Rain chances may also return to the area by late week as the next, weaker cold front approaches the area. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through Wednesday, increasing to a Moderate Risk by Thursday. /96

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

MVFR ceilings will clear this afternoon with VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast. Strong northerly winds of 20 to 30 knots will continue this afternoon and early evening. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1249 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Light onshore flow will persist through the remainder of tonight, along with dense sea fog over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones later today, with strong northerly to northeasterly winds developing behind the front. Frequent gusts to gale force will be possible over the Gulf waters with strong small craft conditions possible elsewhere. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 60 22 49 29 / 40 0 0 0 Pensacola 62 28 50 34 / 30 0 0 0 Destin 64 31 51 37 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 57 21 51 24 / 40 0 0 0 Waynesboro 49 19 46 24 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 49 20 46 23 / 20 0 0 0 Crestview 61 23 51 23 / 20 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ670- 675.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for GMZ670-675.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for GMZ670-675.