textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity.

- Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights.

- A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Through Thursday...an upper ridge stretching northeast from an upper high over the Gulf remains in control of the Southeast. A strong upper level shortwave trough passes well north of the forecast area Thursday/Thursday night, temporarily weakening the upper ridge over the northern half of the eastern Conus, but this only temporarily. A surface ridge stretching west over the Southeast is maintained, keeping the region under southeast to southerly flow through mid week. Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep deep layer moisture levels low (1.0" or less), especially over eastern portions of the forecast area. This will keep the forecast area dry, even with Thursday's passing shortwave trough. The passing shortwave does weaken the surface trough, though, along with bringing a temporary uptick in deep layer moisture levels. There is expected to be enough moisture in boundary for overnight fog development each night through Thursday night. Hard to pin down any dense fog developing where and when, so will have to play this by ear. Temperatures remain above seasonal norms, with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s well inland from the coast, upper 70s to near 80 near and on the coast. Low temperatures see a small uptick through the period, from the mid 50s to around 60 tonight rising to around 60 to mid 60s by Thursday night.

Friday through Monday, guidance is advertising a closed upper low moving east over/along the northern US/Ca border Saturday through the weekend, along with some shortwave energy moving through the flow over the southern half of the Conus. A surface cold front moves across the forecast area later Saturday night into Sunday night in response. Significant differences in the path of the major closed upper low is creating significant differences in the strength of the cold front and cold air pushing south over the Southeast. Guidance also varies in the effects of the passing shortwave energy, especially the further south the cold front moves. The current forecast is based upon any decent upper support remaining well north of the forecast any area and PoPs remaining low. Temperatures ahead of the front's passage remain well above seasonal norms, with possible bumping of record highs Friday. Behind, there is a drop in temperatures for the coming week. How much is hard to pin down right now.

A steady southeast to southerly flow will keep swell incoming on area beaches. With a low tidal range, am expecting a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through Friday. Disruption of the surface ridge later in the week will decrease incoming swell and drop the Rip Risk to Low for the coming weekend. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours. Fog and low ceilings are expected to first develop along the I-10 corridor and spread to our interior counties overnight. It still looks like the best probabilities for dense fog will remain north of our local TAF sites (although KMOB could see brief reductions to LIFR by around sunrise). Any fog or low ceilings that do develop tonight will dissipate a little after sunrise. A light and variable to light southerly flow tonight will increase to near 10 knots on Tuesday. /22

MARINE

Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through the forecast. /16

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area, with drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect through the week. Winds remain light enough and afternoon relative humidity values a bit too moist to hoist a by the criteria Red Flag Watch/Warning at this time for the next few days. Still, playing this by ear. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 60 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 60 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 62 77 64 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 55 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 58 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 56 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 55 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None