textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- A round of strong to severe storms will be possible on Wednesday.

- Several chances for beneficial rainfall are expected through Saturday with rainfall totals of around 2 to 4 inches possible. - Strong winds return this weekend to area waters, creating hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

An upper ridge centered over Mexico shifts west as shortwave energy continues to move quickly through the generally zonal upper flow over the Conus. This shifting of the upper ridge will allow more of the impulses to pass over the Southeast through the rest of the week into the weekend. Daily showers and thunderstorms will help to ease drought conditions over the forecast area. A weak cold front is forecast to sag south over the forecast area today into tonight, helping to provide the focus for isentropic upglide induced convection the next few days as it stalls along the northern Gulf coast. Ahead of the front, enough instability is present (SBCapes in the 2500-3000J/kg range) for strong storms to form. Wind shear is enough (Bulk and EBWD shear around 45kts), though limited in the lowest 1-2km and presenting a linear profile, for some organization to be possible. Mid level lapse rates this afternoon ahead of the front are advertised around 7C in the guidance, meaning hail is possible. Also, guidance is advertising the nose of a modest 80kt upper level jet passing over the southern half of the Southeast this afternoon into this evening, helping with storm strength. All ingredients are good enough for strong to severe storms, with damaging winds, hail the primary threats, though a brief spinup is possible. Helping to temper the severe risk, model soundings show the stronger winds (50kts and up) are above 500mb, so it will take some taller storms. Also, with a pretty soupy sounding (precipitable h20 values of 1.7"-1.9"), limited to no upper level dry air is present to entrain into any downdrafts and help with the damaging winds, though it will help for these storms to be efficient rainers. Localized water issues are also a possibility today into tonight.

Thursday into the weekend, surface based instability over the forecast area decreases, though enough is available above for rumblers to mix in. The rest of the ingredients for strong to severe storms drop, so am not expecting any organized severe storms. Still, daily showers and thunderstorms are expected into the Saturday, when a second, stronger cold front moves south over the forecast area.

Temperatures will see a downward trend into the weekend due to a combination of rain and cooler air moving over the forecast area. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s today drop into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday. Low temperatures in the 60s tonight drop into the around 50 to upper 50s for Friday night.

For the forecast (Saturday through Tuesday), an upper ridge builds north from Mexico to over the Plains, bringing a return of temperatures a bit above seasonal norms, low to mid 80s, but Tuesday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is expected through the week, though the risk bumps Moderate Levels today. A Moderate Risk, maybe High Risk returns Friday night Saturday as onshore flow increases ahead of a second cold front expected to cross the forecast area Saturday. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conditions are generally in place at issuance time, with low- end MVFR to IFR ceilings developing along the coast. These low ceilings are expected to spread inland over the next few hours. VFR conditions should return by mid to late morning and linger through the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon over portions of Mississippi and spread eastward through the evening hours. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. A few stronger storms capable of producing gusty, erratic winds or hail cannot be ruled out. Light southerly to southwesterly winds will increase to around 5-10 knots inland and 10-15 knots along the coast during the late morning and afternoon hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will become more variable, then temporarily offshore later tonight into Thursday as a cold front sags south over area coastal waters and stalls. Winds shift to easterly, then return to onshore by Friday night ahead of another cold front approaching the northern Gulf coast. This front will cross area waters Saturday, bringing moderate to strong offshore flow follows for the rest of the weekend, with a Small Craft Advisory likely. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 79 60 75 / 60 50 40 60 Pensacola 68 80 65 77 / 50 50 30 50 Destin 69 79 65 77 / 50 50 40 40 Evergreen 62 78 55 73 / 80 50 30 50 Waynesboro 61 74 55 67 / 80 50 40 70 Camden 60 74 54 66 / 80 50 30 60 Crestview 63 81 59 80 / 60 60 30 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.