textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

- A high risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches for Thursday through Friday.

- Some strong storms may be possible mainly over the coastal counties on Thursday.

- Moderate to strong marine winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters late Thursday night into Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A modest upper trof oriented from near the ArkLaTex down to along the Texas coast slowly advances eastward through tonight while a large upper trof evolves over the central states. The modest upper trof becomes absorbed into the large upper trof which amplifies while continuing into the eastern states through Thursday night. An associated surface low passes well off to the north and brings a cold front through the forecast area Thursday night. MLCAPE values of around 500 J/kg are anticipated to shift across the area ahead of the front Thursday to shortly after midnight before tapering off, and may reach up to 1000 J/kg near the coast from mid morning Thursday through mid evening. An 850 mb jet around 30 knots provides for enough favorable shear to be a concern, but deep layer lift may be a limiting factor. That said, CAMs favor the strongest convective development mainly over the coastal counties from mid morning Thursday into the afternoon which lines up well with the potential for better instability in this portion and appears the be the period of interest. Will mention in the Key Messages that some strong storms are possible on Thursday mainly over the coastal counties.

Dry conditions follow for Friday and Saturday, then may see some spotty isolated showers develop late Saturday night through Sunday night as some modest shortwaves move across the region. Dry conditions then follow for Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will be mostly 5-10 degrees above seasonable levels through the period, except for Friday and Friday which will be near or a bit below seasonable values. A moderate risk of rip currents is in effect through tonight, then a high risk follows for Thursday through Friday night. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday and Sunday. /29

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

General VFR conditions over the forecast area at 23z will drop to low end MVFR or low overnight as rain and a thunderstorm or two move over the area. Some improvement is indicated after 18z. Easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected through most of the forecast, with a shift to southerly Thursday afternoon. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Light to moderate easterly winds become southeasterly tonight and southerly on Thursday. A moderate to strong northwest flow develops Thursday night as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow diminishes on Friday then becomes southeasterly on Saturday and continues into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary mainly for the open Gulf waters from late Thursday night into Friday morning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 56 70 47 61 / 60 90 40 0 Pensacola 59 68 51 61 / 40 90 50 0 Destin 58 68 52 64 / 30 90 60 0 Evergreen 48 68 44 60 / 40 90 60 0 Waynesboro 50 68 41 57 / 50 70 50 0 Camden 48 65 41 55 / 40 90 70 0 Crestview 50 68 47 61 / 30 90 60 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.