textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Moderate to strong northeast winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over most of the marine area Friday night into this weekend.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas from Friday night through Saturday night.

- Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.

UPDATE

Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Forecast remains on track; no updates needed. /96

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Tonight through Friday night...An upper ridge stretching north along the Mississippi River sharpens as an upper trough deepens over the western Conus, and shortwave energy moves through a mean upper trough along the East Coast. A surface low off the DelMarVa deepens, moving a dryer airmass southwest across the Southeast through the rest of the week, reinforcing an already dry airmass over the region, and continuing to limit any rain chances. High temperatures remain above seasonal norms, especially western portions of the forecast area, closer to the upper ridge. Upper 70s east to lower 80s west expected. The dry airmass an a bit cooler northeasterly low level flow will help with radiational cooling overnight, keeping overnight lows below seasonal norms. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to mid 50s along the coast expected.

Saturday through Tuesday, a continuous stream of shortwave energy moving over the Conus flattens the upper ridge, along with shifting it south of the northern Gulf coast. Temperatures drop closer to seasonal norms with the shifting of the upper ridge. The forecast area continues to remain dry through the rest of the forecast.

Taking a look at the Rip Risk on area beaches, a Moderate Risk quickly drops to low through the rest of the week. A weakly organized surface low develops over the Caribbean, tightening the pressure gradient over the northern Gulf, increasing winds and the Rip Risk to High for the coming weekend. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Light northeasterly winds today will become more variable by tonight. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Light to moderate northeasterly winds will continue through Friday. Moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds develop Friday night and linger into the weekend. Wind gusts may approach gale force mainly well offshore Saturday night and Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for much of the marine area starting Friday and running until ending at some point on Monday. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 78 51 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 78 56 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 78 57 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 78 46 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 79 46 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 76 47 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 78 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.