textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through Saturday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Wave runup and overwash are a concern along the coastline mid to late week as the surf quickly builds to 4-5 feet.

- Small craft conditions are expected through Friday. - After a few dry days, rain chances quickly increase for the weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding concerns, will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

High pressure will continue to build across the Appalachians through Friday before pushing into the western Atlantic by the weekend. This is allowing for a cold air damming (CAD) pattern to setup across the Southeast US through Friday. The leading edge of this CAD is a backdoor cold front that is currently located over our eastern-most counties as of midnight this morning. This front, and any lingering showers and storms, should continue pushing to the southwest throughout the overnight and into the morning hours. Anomalously dry air for this time of year will begin filtering in from the northeast by the afternoon hours. In fact, by tonight, PWATs may range from 0.5-0.8 inches (approx 2.5 standard deviations below normal in some spots) and dew points should plummet into the upper 40s to low 50s for much of the area. These dry conditions (along with little to no rain chances) should continue through at least Thursday night. Temperatures will also be a few degrees cooler than average, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s inland to the mid to upper 60s along the coast.

The pattern quickly changes on Friday as a non-tropical surface low attempts to form along the front south of Louisiana. As this low lifts northward, deep moisture will also surge to the north, bringing PWATs of around 2 inches back into the area by late Friday. This will help to bring multiple rounds of showers and storms back into the forecast for the weekend. Not anticipating any severe weather at this time due to shear values remaining very low. That being said, storms would likely be slow-moving, and with very high PWATs in place, storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers. If any boundaries are able to set up and storms are able to train over the same locations, then a heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat may materialize for this weekend, especially considering the copious amounts of rainfall we have seen over the past couple weeks. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days.

The other big concern we have is with regards to beach conditions. Strong easterly winds are expected to develop later this morning, becoming more southeasterly by Thursday. This will allow for our rip current risk to quickly rise to a High Risk today, continuing through at least Saturday. We will also have to monitor for the potential for High Surf, especially as we get to the Thursday night/Friday timeframe. Right now, guidance suggests surf heights to around 4-5 feet, but any further increases would likely result in the issuance of a High Surf Advisory. Lastly, although coastal flooding is not anticipated at this time due to a more easterly wind direction, the timing of the tidal cycle combined with the stronger winds and high surf may promote overwash into some of our trouble spots such as Fort Pickens and Dauphin Island, possibly resulting in some localized minor inundation. /96

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Showers and storms continue to slide from east to west along the coastline as of 05z. While VFR conditions generally prevail across the area, brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected near any storms overnight. Winds gradually turn easterly and increase through the early morning hours with gusts of 20-25 knots possible throughout the day. Ceilings fall to MVFR in the pre-dawn hours and should rebound back to VFR by the early to mid afternoon hours. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Northerly winds this afternoon will become more easterly by tonight as a boundary slowly pushes further offshore. Small craft conditions develop early Wednesday in the strengthening easterly flow and persist through Thursday across the bays, waterways, and Gulf waters while continuing through Friday for the far offshore Gulf waters. Onshore flow develops Friday through the weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and elevated winds and seas will be possible with any storms. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 70 80 65 83 / 60 30 10 0 Pensacola 71 81 67 83 / 60 30 0 10 Destin 71 82 68 83 / 70 30 0 10 Evergreen 66 80 59 83 / 60 10 0 0 Waynesboro 68 80 59 83 / 40 10 0 0 Camden 66 80 59 82 / 40 10 0 0 Crestview 66 81 60 84 / 70 20 0 0

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 80 64 82 65 / 20 10 0 10 Pensacola 81 67 83 70 / 30 0 0 20 Destin 83 68 84 70 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 81 57 83 59 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 80 61 82 60 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 81 58 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 81 59 84 61 / 20 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630-631-633.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ632.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ634>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM CDT Friday for GMZ670-675.