textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - There is a HIGH RISK of life threatening rip currents across the Alabama and northwest Florida Gulf beaches through tonight.

- A series of storm complexes will likely approach from the northwest through Thursday, bringing a chance for localized strong wind gusts and additional locally heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The forecast remains on track with convection currently moving through southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Heavy rain rates are causing some localized flash flooding, but convection is subsiding and the threat should wane over the next couple of hours. SS/97

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A remnant outflow boundary has steadily moved its way inland this morning as it serves as a focus for scattered storm development over the far interior portions of the area. In the wake of this feature, skies have scattered out and sunshine has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s. With dewpoints still solidly in the mid to upper 70s, SBCAPEs are increasing to around 3000-3500 J/kg. Therefore, expect additional scattered to numerous storms to develop this afternoon, especially over the inland areas with likely less coverage at the coast. Deep layer shear is weak, so no organized strong to severe storms are expected today. However, a brief strong storm with gusty winds is possible. The storms will continue to be efficient rain producers given precipitable water values of 2 to 2.15 inches. Therefore, locally heavy rainfall is possible, but no widespread additional flooding issues are expected from today's storm activity.

Storm coverage will trend a little lower on Monday as drier air moves into the area in the wake of a weak departing shortwave. PWATs are forecast to drop to around 1.6-1.7 inches. Even with this, a few afternoon storms will be possible with the heat of the day. In addition, guidance continues to indicate that a shortwave will move into the lower MS Valley and help spark a complex of storms over the Midsouth region. Given the deep layer northwest flow, this complex is forecast to move southeast and may attempt to approach the area by late afternoon/early evening. Given the aforementioned drier air and weak deep layer shear, this complex is likely to weaken as it moves closer to our inland areas. However, it is possible that it could help enhance rain chances slightly north of Hwy 84. It should be noted that models typically struggle with these summertime northwest flow complexes and we will have to keep a close eye on its evolution as we go through the day tomorrow. SPC clips the far northern counties in a Marginal Risk tomorrow to account for a strong wind gust potential if the complex stays a little stronger than currently expected.

The pattern is likely to turn more active again in the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. A strong mid to upper level ridge will extend across the Gulf up into TX, which will put us firmly in deep layer northwest flow aloft. This sets the stage for a series of storm complexes to develop and move across the region each day. The upper ridge over the Gulf will expand further north across the southeast states by the end of the week into next weekend which will result in rain chances finally decreasing in earnest.

Temperatures will be hot and muggy throughout the forecast period. Heat indices will climb into 100-105 degree range with humid lows in the 70s.

Beach Forecast: Based on local beach reports this morning, we upgraded to a HIGH risk of rip currents through tonight. A moderate risk is expected through Tuesday. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Overall, VFR conditions prevail through the period for most areas. Probabilities are higher for MVFR cigs in our counties in southeast Mississippi and central Alabama through the overnight and into early tomorrow morning. Potential is there for some more organized storms to move into our northwest counties late tomorrow afternoon into the evening, but confidence is too low at this time and it will be reassessed with the 06Z forecast. Winds prevail southwesterly through the period around 10 knots with gusts up to 15-20 knots tomorrow. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

High pressure will extend from the southwest Atlantic into the central Gulf through the most of the week. A light to moderate southwest to westerly flow will prevail. Seas 2 to 3 feet through early this week will subside to 1 to 2 feet by the end of the week. 34/JFB

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 91 77 93 / 10 20 0 30 Pensacola 80 91 80 92 / 20 10 10 30 Destin 80 89 80 90 / 10 10 10 20 Evergreen 74 91 75 91 / 20 20 20 60 Waynesboro 75 92 75 91 / 10 20 10 50 Camden 74 89 74 88 / 20 30 30 70 Crestview 76 92 76 93 / 20 20 10 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.