textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents Sunday night into Monday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Increasing concern for the potential of severe storms along a squall line that slides across the area late Sunday into early Monday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main threats. A strong (EF2+) tornado can not be ruled out near or east of the I-65 corridor.

- Increasing confidence in at least 4-6 hours of below freezing temperatures early Tuesday morning behind a strong cold front across our interior counties in south Alabama and south Mississippi. Strong marine winds are expected early Monday morning behind the front with gale force gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Very active weather exists for the near term period over the next few days. Multiple hazards will affect the forecast area with virtually everything but the kitchen sink being thrown our way. Well above normal temperatures today, strong to severe storms late tonight into early Monday, a powerful cold front bringing strong, gusty winds and freezing temperatures in its wake to even potential fire weather concerns on Tuesday. I'll break everything down below, first starting with what we can expect today into this evening.

Well, we start off pretty calm with southerly return flow bringing moisture back into the area ahead of the approaching storm system. We will probably see some isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two try to get going this afternoon in association with the warm advection, but otherwise anticipating mostly dry weather today as highs top out in the lower 80's. Winds will be gusty today as the pressure gradient starts to tighten up and low level flow strengthens, steadily ramping up as we head into tonight.

Before getting into the nitty gritty on tonight, the overall expectation is for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move across the area during the overnight hours, likely exiting the forecast area near or just after daybreak. This line will bring the threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. A more conditional threat for discrete thunderstorms ahead of the line will exist in the vicinity of and east of the I-65 corridor where the best potential for strong EF2+ tornadoes exists. The coverage of discrete storms is not expected to be much, but the environment is certainly concerning if we get storms to form ahead of the line.

Now to dive into the details on how things could evolve tonight. Most CAM guidance the past couple cycles has been trending to a slightly slower evolution of the QLCS allowing for forcing to potentially better align with the open warm sector and potential pre-frontal trough feature along and east of the I-65 corridor prior to the passage of the QLCS. CAMs depict a volatile environment with large, curved hodographs and ample instability in place yielding upwards of 300 m2/s2 SRH and 2,000j/kg of CAPE. A lingering EML that will gradually lift out thanks to the impinging forcing, and how fast this happens will be the difference between nothing ahead of the line to there being several discrete to semi-discrete supercells. If storms can form, the environment is primed for the potential for significant tornadoes of EF2 or greater intensity. The threat is conditional relying on the overspreading of forcing across the warm sector and pre-frontal trough, but was concerning enough for the introduction of an enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk area by SPC for tornadoes to portions of south-central Alabama into our far eastern Florida Panhandle counties. The line of storms itself will probably race across the area fairly quickly bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Most of the CAM guidance is somewhat anemic with the line, however given the forcing moving across the area along with the shear/thermodynamic environment I don't see why a more robust line wouldn't materialize. This would particularly be the case if we can slow the forward progression of the line down a bit more.

The QLCS and cold front blast across the area fairly quickly Monday morning near or prior to daybreak, bringing a substantially colder airmass into the area. Lingering showers are expected through most of the morning in the wake of the front as ample forcing remains over the area. Most locations will see their high temperatures for the day ahead of the front, with highs likely occurring between midnight and 6am in the middle to upper 60's. Temperatures crash into the middle to upper 40's by mid morning and will likely struggle to reach the lower 50's by the afternoon hours.

While wind gusts outside of storms are currently expected to stay below Wind Advisory criteria, we are still anticipating frequent gusts of 30 to 35mph. The stronger pressure gradient and stronger low level jet stay just north of the area prior to the passage of the front, which should help keep us shy of the 40mph frequent gust criteria. Needless to say, it's still going to be breezy this evening into tonight outside of any storms.

Given the strong onshore flow ahead of the front we will quickly ramp up our rip current risk this afternoon and evening. We start off generally as a Low risk early this morning, ramping up to a Moderate risk by this afternoon, and a High risk by this evening. The High Risk will linger into early Monday morning for Alabama beaches, and late Monday afternoon for Florida Panhandle beaches. The rip current risk dips back to a Low risk for all beaches by early Tuesday morning, remaining that way through the remainder of the week.

Monday night will likely feature a near areawide freeze as temperatures dip into the upper 20's to lower 30's for most locations outside of the immediate coastal zones. Given the prolonged warmth we have seen and us entering the beginning of the growing season we will likely need freeze watches and warnings in future forecast updates. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing after midnight Monday night and stay below freezing through around 9 AM Tuesday morning.

As we head into Tuesday, attention shifts towards some potential fire weather concerns. In the wake of the front, a very dry airmass pushes into the area. This will allow for afternoon dewpoints to tank and for minimum afternoon relative humidity values to dip to near 20% despite afternoon highs in the low to mid 50's. This combined with some residual elevated winds around 10 to 15mph gusting upwards of 20 to 25mph may allow for some elevated fire weather concerns, particularly considering we are not currently anticipating any significant rainfall out of this system (generally less than a half inch) in addition to the ongoing drought conditions across the area. Worthwhile to keep an eye on, particularly if forecast winds increase.

Once we get past all of that, we return to a much calmer pattern (one that may last for the next week or two). Highs gradually rebound through the week, reaching the 60's again by Wednesday and perhaps reaching 80 again by Friday. No rain is expected the rest of the week. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Ceilings lower this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the area around midnight tonight and move east of the area overnight. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Onshore flow strengthens today ahead of a cold front. Winds abruptly turn northwesterly behind the front by early Monday. Small craft conditions are expected by Monday with the potential for frequent gale force gusts behind the front. Strong offshore flow will persist through at least Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory and Gale Watch have been issued. Winds and seas gradually relax again by mid- week. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 80 45 57 32 / 10 90 30 0 Pensacola 77 48 61 35 / 10 80 40 0 Destin 73 51 62 35 / 10 80 50 0 Evergreen 81 42 56 27 / 10 90 40 0 Waynesboro 82 40 51 28 / 10 90 20 0 Camden 81 40 52 27 / 10 90 30 0 Crestview 80 46 61 29 / 10 80 50 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655- 670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

Gale Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for GMZ650- 655-670-675.