textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through Tuesday. Surf heights up to 5 feet are expected through Tuesday, with rough surf expected.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through midweek.

- A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday into Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms likely across the area. The threat for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Through Thursday, an upper low moving east over the northern/central Plains with a trough stretching south over the southern Plains contends with an upper ridge over the eastern Conus and another upper low that develops off the East Coast (from the upper trough that passed yesterday). As the Plains system pushes east, the upper ridge deflects the main part of the system northeast. Guidance is advertising the trough south of the main system taking a negative tilt as it moves over the Lower Mississippi River Valley to over the Southeast, but with the northeast deflection of the main system, the better enhancement of the dynamics gets deflected generally north of us here on the northern Gulf coast. Timing of this system is a bit earlier than yesterday, with the initial rainshowers and thunderstorms developing on the north-central Gulf coast Tuesday night. Overnight Tuesday night, we have MLCapes of 800-1300J/kg along with EBWD shear around 35kts. Guidance is advertising an 850mb passing over the western half of the Southeast, with the strongest part of the jet being over the northern part of the region and Tennessee River Valley. The jet is strong enough for some guidance to advertise Tds increasing into the low 70s into Wednesday, but that is Wednesday. Back to Tuesday night, guidance is advertising 0- 1km helicities > 100m^s/2^s touching areas north of Highway 84. All in all, there is a low chance of rowdy storms Tuesday night, with the best chance being north of Highway 84. Low but feel not zero. Wind damage, maybe a spinner, are the primary threats. Mid level lapse rates are low (helped buy the instability limiting mid level height falls being very, very limited over the northern Gulf Coast), so the chance of large hail is expected to be small. Timing is soon after sunset over western portions of the forecast area moving to near the Tombigbee River by sunrise Wednesday. Heading into Wednesday, the increased dewpoints help instability to rise a bit (MLCapes rising into the 1000-1500J/kg range), but with the upper dynamics moving off, the better wind shear and upper support moves east or northeast, respectively, of the forecast area. The risk of rowdy storms decreases though the morning as the instability and dynamics separate. Still a possibility, though, with wind damage the primary threat. Timing still remains an issue, both with everything getting started as the tail end of the trough passes over the Southeast, along with path. Will continue to monitor. As of this writing, SPC has placed the forecast area under a general thunder coverage for Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Later Wednesday through Thursday night, a weakening cold front approaches the forecast area, eventually stalling over the forecast area. So far, using the dew point front as a guide, drier air approaches the northwestern quarter of the forecast area by Thursday evening and stalling. Comparing the deterministic and ensembles, there continues to be inconsistency. There is consistency in temperatures remain above seasonal norms. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures in the 60s tonight rise into the mid/upper 60s Tuesday night. With a drop overall in deep layer moisture and clearing as the system passes, low temperatures drop into the around 50 north of Highway 84 to upper 50s, near 60 along the coast by Thursday night.

Friday through the weekend, another upper level shortwave trough approaches the Southeast. With inconsistency in the amount of moisture drop after mid-weeks system passage, PoPs are inconsistent in how high, though consistent in better PoPs being southeast of Interstate 65. The stalled front moves southeast after it passes, though the question is how far. Ensemble guidance is advertising a drop in temperatures into the weekend, to around or below seasonal norms.

Taking a look at coastal areas, a High Risk of rip currents is maintained into Tuesday night, before decreasing to Moderate Wednesday into Thursday as east to southeast flow decreases and tidal cycle heads towards a neap tide. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Mainly MVFR ceilings across much of the western Florida panhandle, southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi improve to VFR this afternoon. MVFR ceilings then redevelop across the area during the late night and early morning hours, then improve somewhat to MVFR/VFR ceilings towards late morning on Tuesday. Easterly winds around 10 knots diminish to mostly around 5 knots this evening, then increase to around 10 knots Tuesday morning. Winds will potentially be a bit higher near the coast through the period. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow continues through Tuesday with a tight pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. Winds will shift southeasterly Tuesday night as a system approaches the area from the west. Winds gradually decrease and turn southerly Wednesday, becoming offshore Wednesday night through the weekend. Seas remain near 5-7 feet today and will gradually decrease throughout the week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 80 67 82 / 0 50 60 60 Pensacola 68 79 70 81 / 0 20 70 60 Destin 68 80 70 80 / 0 10 60 70 Evergreen 61 80 64 80 / 0 20 50 90 Waynesboro 61 80 64 80 / 0 30 70 60 Camden 62 78 64 78 / 0 10 60 90 Crestview 63 82 66 81 / 0 20 50 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.