textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - Scattered storms expected each afternoon and evening this weekend with gusty downburst winds being the main threat.

- Warming trend is possible next week with the heat index potentially soaring to 105-111 across portions of the area.

- There is a low (30%) probability of tropical development over the northern Gulf over the next 7 days.

UPDATE

Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Hires guidance has had a hard time resolving these mesoscale driven thunderstorms, so not a lot of confidence with regard to the PoP forecast. Given this uncertainty, with much of the guidance keeping mostly dry conditions during the daylight hours, did not adjust the forecast too much. Otherwise, expected the heat to continue, with heat indices climbing into the triple digits once again. /73

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A complex pattern unfolds over the coming days as deep layer ridging continues to drift west across the Gulf. An upper low continues to meander across the eastern Gulf as weak troughing at the surface gradually develops. Gradual development is possible late this weekend and into early next week as this system slowly moves north. There remains a low (30%) probability of tropical development over the northern Gulf over the next 7 days. Given the lack of a surface reflection at this point, we continue to have low confidence in any potential track/movement/strength of this system. And, unfortunately, our forecast for early next week hinges on the trajectory of this potential system. If the system drifts north into the Big Bend region, there would be little to no tropical impacts and, instead, the heat will crank up across the area. On the flip side, if this system drifts somewhat more to the west across the northern Gulf, we could be dealing with higher rain chances, gusty marine winds, and increased chances for rip currents. So...all of that to say - it's too early to determine any potential impacts here locally.

In the middle to latter part of this upcoming week, ridging begins to build back into the region from the west. While this will allow for PoPs to return to the normal diurnal pattern, we will have to keep an eye out for complexes of storms potentially dropping into the region from the north. If the first tropical scenario pans out, then expect a warming trend through much of next week with heat indices potentially as high as 105-111 across portions of the area.

Beach Forecast - The risk for rip currents will remain low through the weekend and into the early part of next week. If the second tropical scenario pans out, we could see an upward trend in the rip current risk starting early next week. Otherwise, we don't anticipate the rip current risk to change until Wednesday when it increases to a MODERATE risk. 07/mb

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. Winds will remain from the north, except in any thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will increase late this afternoon, with scattered storms through the early evening. Any activity should dissipate shortly after sunset. /73

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

High pressure will continue to move west across the northern Gulf through the weekend. This will maintain a light to occasionally moderate west to northwest flow through early next week. Seas will generally 1 to 2 feet. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 96 75 96 74 / 30 20 40 30 Pensacola 95 78 92 78 / 50 50 60 40 Destin 92 78 90 78 / 60 60 70 40 Evergreen 93 73 93 73 / 30 30 50 40 Waynesboro 95 75 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 Camden 93 74 93 74 / 20 20 30 30 Crestview 95 74 92 73 / 50 60 60 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.