textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 - The heat will continue to build into early and middle parts of the upcoming week with some locations nearing or breaking daily record highs. Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be necessary for portions of the area.

- Daily, mainly afternoon and evening scattered t-storm chances increases middle to later parts of the upcoming week, but will still remain hot.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The forecast looks on track for now. Have kept small pops well inland for the early evening hours for the potential of some isolated convection, but otherwise dry conditions are expected tonight. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

We start off today's package with a large upper high pressure area over the western and central U.S. and an upper trough digging southward along the Eastern Seaboard. The upper trough will then lift northeastward on Monday, making way for a prominent ridge to rebuild back into our region from the west. Surface high pressure across the Gulf will drift southwestward over the remainder of the weekend as a weak surface trough emerges under the upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard into the Western Atlantic. Despite the daily temperatures inland increasing into the middle to upper 90s early in the week, the sea-breeze will only migrate to just north of I-10 as it encounters an opposing 850 mb northwesterly flow along the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge to our west. The sea-breeze should migrate as far north as the Highway-84 corridor on Tuesday as the opposing flow weakens and temperatures climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s inland.

Speaking of temperatures, it will be hot tomorrow and then very hot the first half of the workweek when dangerous heat indices lead to increasing heat stress. Monday should be the first day we will have a Heat Advisory in effect, followed by a combination of Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings on Tuesday and Wednesday. We will continue to increase heat precautionary messaging in the coming days so the public is aware, and prepares accordingly. For the hottest days, we are forecasting apparent temperatures (heat indices) between 102-110 degrees on Monday, and between 105-112 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locations along the coast Tuesday and Wednesday could see temporary heat indices peek around 115 degrees. There will be no overnight relief from the heat as lows tonight night will be around 5 degrees above normal, increasing to 7-9 degrees above normal by Tuesday night.

We are expecting high temperatures to be near or at least tie record highs. Below are the current record high temperatures (and dates) for the Mobile and Pensacola areas along with our latest forecast:

Sunday, July 26

Mobile Record High: 98 (1983) / Forecast: 96 Pensacola Record High: 98 (1990) / Forecast: 96

Monday, July 27

Mobile Record High: 99 (1968) / Forecast: 97 Pensacola Record High: 98 (1970) / Forecast: 98

Tuesday, July 28

Mobile Record High: 100 (1968) / Forecast: 100 Pensacola Record High: 98 (1993) / Forecast: 98

Wednesday, July 29

Mobile Record High: 100 (1877) / Forecast: 99 Pensacola Record High: 100 (1986) / Forecast: 98

There is a 20-30% chance of evening showers and storms across our far interior areas as a complex of storms to our north enters into the northern portion of our forecast area. Any remaining convection should dissipate late evening. For Sunday, there is a 20-40% chance of showers and storms across our entire area as a second complex moves through the area aided by a straight northerly flow pattern above 700mb. We did make some minor edits to the NBM PoPs to increase them for Sunday, including near the coast late in the afternoon as the line interacts with the sea- breeze. No widespread severe weather is expected on Sunday, but occasional strong storms are possible as mixed layer instability values approach 1500-2000 j/kg. Looking ahead, no precipitation is expected Monday and Tuesday outside of spotty afternoon showers developing along a sea-breeze. Rain chances are then expected to increase the latter half of the week as similar upper trough is set to dig southward along the Eastern Seaboard, and bring some relief to the heat. /22

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

MVFR conditions will be possible with isolated to potentially scattered convection on Sunday. VFR conditions are otherwise anticipated to prevail. Winds become light and variable this evening. A northwesterly flow at 5-10 knots develops Sunday morning then becomes westerly inland in the afternoon while near the coast winds turn southwesterly. /29

MARINE

Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Nearby high pressure will continue to promote mainly light winds and calm waves/seas through tonight. Winds will become more established Sunday through mid-week out of the west, averaging around 10-15 knots at times but otherwise waves will remain calm/light through the forecast period. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 96 77 97 / 0 20 10 30 Pensacola 78 96 79 98 / 0 30 10 20 Destin 80 91 81 92 / 0 20 10 20 Evergreen 74 95 75 96 / 0 30 10 10 Waynesboro 75 95 76 98 / 10 30 10 10 Camden 75 93 75 96 / 20 40 20 10 Crestview 75 96 76 97 / 10 20 20 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.