textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought will continue to exacerbate wildfire activity.

- Fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible tonight and Thursday night.

- Moderate to strong winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft from late Friday night through Sunday, potentially into Sunday night as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Now through Wednesday...

An upper level ridge builds east over the Southern Plains and Southeast from an upper high centered over the border of New and Old Mexico, deflecting any shortwave energy well north of the forecast area. A surface ridge develops and builds west over the Southeast in response to the building upper ridge before shifting south to over the Gulf through the rest of week. Deep layer moisture levels over the Southeast decrease through the rest of week, from 1.1"-1.3" currently to around 0.9" by Friday. Some moisture returns with a cold front moving over the Southeast Friday night into Saturday (in response to a series of shortwaves passing north of the Southeast). Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass moves over the forecast area for the weekend, with temperatures dropping to near seasonal norms for the weekend. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to limit any precipitation, with a dry frontal passage expected. In the coming week, a series of upper level shortwaves digging south over the western Conus shifts the upper ridge east, to over the eastern Conus. With light boundary layer winds and good moisture in the layer, fog development is expected tonight and Thursday nights.

Looking at temperatures, well above seasonal temperatures are expected through most of the forecast. High temperatures in the mid are expected Thursday and Friday over most of the forecast area. The coming front will drop high temperatures to near seasonal norms for the weekend, with high temperatures in the 70s are expected. High temperatures creep back up to the around 80 to low 80s by Tuesday in the coming week. Low temperatures see the same rise/fall/rise regime, rising to the upper 50s to low 60s by Thursday night. The approaching front will drop low temperatures into the low to mid 50s Saturday night. From there, low temperatures slow rise into the mid 50s to around 60 by Tuesday night.

Onshore flow remains weak but semi-organized through the rest of the week, keeping the risk of dangerous rip currents low. Post fropa, moderate to strong flow develops as the offshore flow shifts to easterly, bringing a moderate to high risk of rip currents by Sunday. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions develop across most of the area overnight, potentially evolving into VLIFR conditions. Conditions improve to VFR by mid to late Thursday morning. Calm or light southeasterly winds overnight become southerly 5-10 knots on Thursday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A light easterly to southeasterly flow becomes southwesterly on Friday. A moderate to strong offshore flow develops Friday night as a cold front moves through then turns easterly for Saturday night and Sunday. A light to moderate southeasterly flow develops on Monday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary from late Friday night through Sunday, potentially into Sunday night as well. /29

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Very dry fuels and a lack of rain over the forecast area will allow for an increased risk of wildfires continuing through the week. 20ft winds are expected to remain light enough to limit the need for any RFWs. The wild card is a seabreeze developing along the coast, and moving inland in the afternoon, bringing locally gusty winds and possibly causing issues over our coastal counties. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 78 62 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 75 62 76 60 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 86 56 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 84 60 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 84 58 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 84 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.