textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Fog remains possible through Saturday morning, primarily nearer the coast in association with any marine fog that develops.

- A couple of storms could be strong to severe mainly along and east of I-65 on Saturday ahead of a cold front. - Strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from Saturday night into Monday night. Gale conditions are possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

As we head through the rest of tonight into the early morning hours the primary forecast headache will be the evolution of dense marine fog. A dense fog advisory has been issued for southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound through 6am this morning. It's possible this spreads in areal coverage, potentially impacting some of the adjacent land areas, however confidence on the coverage and density precludes issuing any dense fog advisories for coastal portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties at this time. Observational trends will continue to be monitored through the night.

A strong cold front pushes across the area late this evening into tonight. Ahead of it, warm, moist air will continue to foster scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late this morning into early this evening. Ahead of the front, a few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out with a primarily damaging wind and large hail threat. Best chances will be along and east of the I-65 corridor in south-central Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This is where instability approaching 1,500 to 2,000j/kg overlaps with 50 knots of deep layer shear and subtle forcing. The main limiter overall remains the forcing across the area, keeping the threat marginal.

In the wake of the front it turns very cold, a stark contrast to the all time record warm day for February we just had. Highs plummet into the 40's and 50's by Monday, with overnight lows in the upper 20's and lower 30's Sunday night and middle to upper 20's areawide Monday night. We quickly modulate back into the lower 70's for highs by Wednesday and lows into the 50's by Wednesday night. Rain chances enter the picture again Thursday as another system moves across the area.

Based on rip current reports from earlier in the day and the expectation for slightly stronger rip currents through Saturday night have opted to go forth with upgrading the moderate risk to a High risk of rip currents for our Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches through daybreak Sunday. Rip currents gradually diminish with a Moderate risk for Sunday and a Low risk following for Sunday night into early next week. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions prevail area-wide this morning. Ceilings will gradually improve to MVFR by mid-morning ahead of the storms. MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely return tonight as a cold front slides across the region. Southerly to southwesterly winds pick up in the afternoon with gusts of 15-20 knots ahead of the front. Expect a wind shift with northwesterly winds behind the front late tonight with gusts to 20 knots. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A light to moderate onshore flow will continue today with dense marine fog possible this morning over southern Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound. A strong cold front moves through the area to night, with a strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected late Saturday night into late Sunday morning. A Gale Warning will go into effect for this period for much of the marine waters. A Small Craft Advisory will continue afterwards through at least Monday afternoon, potentially needing extended for portions of the marine waters through Monday night. Offshore flow diminishes late Monday night into Tuesday morning. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 80 43 58 33 / 60 50 0 0 Pensacola 79 47 59 36 / 50 70 0 0 Destin 74 47 59 36 / 60 70 0 0 Evergreen 81 41 57 28 / 80 70 0 0 Waynesboro 79 39 56 30 / 80 40 0 0 Camden 76 39 54 28 / 80 50 0 0 Crestview 82 44 58 30 / 70 70 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.

Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ631- 632.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for GMZ633>636.