textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 958 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

- A strong system could bring gusty winds and strong storms to the area Saturday night into Sunday.

- Strong marine winds are anticipated Saturday night into Sunday night with the potential for occasional gusts to gale force resulting in hazardous boating conditions.

- High Surf is may cause issues, particularly in trouble spots across coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with potential for overwash and beach erosion Saturday night into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 958 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Much above normal temperatures remains the headline through the remainder of the week as highs top out in the middle to upper 70's today and lower to middle 70's the next few days. Lows also stay relatively warm in the upper 40's to lower 50's for most locations each night, perhaps a couple degrees cooler Wednesday night as some drier air works its way into the area. A weak cold front progresses across the region tonight into Thursday morning, allowing for that slightly cooler and drier air to move in. In advance of the front this afternoon into the evening isolated showers will remain possible.

As we head into the weekend, all eyes turn towards our next impactful weather system. An upper trough pushes across the gulf coast states allowing for a substantial increase in rain and thunderstorm chances Saturday night through Sunday morning. Surface low pressure develops and the pressure gradient tightens up across the area as strong upper difluence overspreads the area. This should allow for a pretty substantial mass response bringing warm, moist air northward off the Gulf into the forecast area. There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in association with a highly forced line of thunderstorms early Sunday morning. The main caveat right now appears to be how much instability will actually be present for storms to utilize. Our recent cold snaps have cooled our bays/sounds and adjacent gulf waters quite a bit over the past month which could limit the quality of moisture return over the area. If adequate instability can materialize, it will overlap with ample deep layer shear of around 60 knots and large, curved hodographs yielding 200 to 300 m2/s2 of low level SRH. Most of the forecast guidance is in general agreement at this point on the trough evolution, with small variations in its forward progression. A slower trough progression would allow for more moisture return and the forced line of storms to move through later in the morning, which would be the main pathway for us to realize a more robust potential for strong to severe storms. At the moment, guidance is fairly quick with the forward progression of things keeping the threat relatively low.

Strong gusty winds will also be possible outside of showers and storms owing to a strong 40kt 925mb jet and some propensity to mix the lower levels. While wind advisory criteria gusts are not forecast at the moment, I won't be surprised if we get close in spots with frequent gusts in the 25 to 35mph range nearer the coast, especially if we see the system slow down at all to allow for some better surface heating prior to the passage of the line of storms and the cold front. A High Surf Advisory or Warning may be needed this weekend for Saturday night into Sunday as surf heights rapidly increase into the 5 to 9 foot range along coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. In the wake of the system, we don't really cool off much and maintain well above normal highs and lows through next week. A Low risk of rip currents today becomes a Moderate risk by Thursday and a High risk for Saturday into Sunday. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 654 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Other than some localized fog early this morning, VFR conditions are expected today. MVFR/IFR ceilings develop tonight over much of the area in the wake of a cold front. Southwesterly winds increase to 5-10 knots this morning, then switch to the northwest during the afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front moves through. /29

MARINE

Issued at 958 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Light onshore flow today becomes light to occasionally moderate offshore flow tonight into Thursday in the wake of a weak cold front. Light onshore flow returns late Friday, becoming moderate Saturday morning and strong Saturday night into Sunday. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Saturday evening through Sunday evening, with the potential for a Gale Watch if confidence on stronger wind gusts increases. A moderate to strong offshore flow becomes established Sunday night in the wake of a cold front, gradually waning to a light to moderate offshore flow by Monday afternoon. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 52 72 50 72 / 10 0 10 10 Pensacola 55 69 50 69 / 20 0 10 10 Destin 53 68 51 68 / 10 0 10 10 Evergreen 45 70 43 73 / 10 0 10 10 Waynesboro 45 69 48 71 / 10 0 10 10 Camden 43 67 43 69 / 10 0 0 10 Crestview 48 72 43 74 / 20 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.