textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought will exacerbate wildfire activity, especially on Sunday due to gusty northerly winds.

- Rain chances increase tonight with the passage of a cold front, but rainfall totals will be low with no improvement to the drought conditions.

- Strong marine winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft from late tonight into early Monday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Now through Friday...

Through Monday, a deep upper trough moving over the northern Conus shifts an upper trough over the southeastern Conus/Gulf southwestward through the weekend, with a cold front crossing the forecast area late Saturday night into Sunday morning in response. Ahead of the coming front, the airmass remains on the drier side, with precipitable h20 levels <=1.0" through today. They then increase to around 1.5" as the front passes Saturday night into Sunday. Enough instability is present for thunderstorms (MLCapes in the 300-500J/kg range). Any upper support is modest at best, along with Bulk Wind Shear (<=25kts), so am expecting any strong storms to be few and far between. Also, rainfall amounts are expected to highest west of the Alabama River. Even so, no drastic changes to drought conditions over the forecast area are expected. By Monday night, the upper trough has shift to off the East Coast. Temperatures through this period are on a bit of a roller coaster ride, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over most of the forecast area Saturday, then dropping to the low to mid 70s for Sunday behind the front. By Monday, high temperatures have rebounded back to the upper 70s to around 80. Low temperatures see the same valley, with low temperatures ranging from around 50 to around 60 Saturday night, then dropping into the mid 40s to near 50 Sunday night, then rising into the upper 40s to low 50s Monday night. Tuesday through Friday, an upper ridge builds north over the Plains, the shifts east through the latter half of the week. An upper level shortwave rough passes over the Southeast mid week, but with marginal moisture return as onshore flow returns Tuesday, PoPs remain low. Temperatures quickly rise back to above seasonal norms by the end of the week.

Onshore flow shifts to offshore by Sunday, keeping the Rip Risk low into the coming week. The return of onshore flow mid week will bring back increased swell to area beaches and a rise in the Rip Current risk to moderate to high the latter half of the week. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The current VFR conditions will see local drops to IFR or even locally LIFR in favored localities overnight. General VFR conditions returns soon after sunrise. An approaching cold front will start moving over the forecast area by the end of the forecast, with a shift in winds from southerly to westerly ahead. /16

MARINE

Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect beginning at 300 AM Sunday for all marine zones due to a strong cold front passing through the region. Expect north to northeast winds of 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves up to 3 ft can be expected across the bays and sounds, and seas 3 to 7 ft can be expected across the Gulf waters. This offshore flow will decrease to moderate across the bays and sounds by early Sunday afternoon, but remain strong over the Gulf through at least Monday morning. A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow follows through midweek. /22

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area, with drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect through most of the week. Also, a Fire Alert has been issued for Alabama. Most of the ingredients for a Red Flag Watch/Warning are present, but not all. Will let day shift coordinate with relevant fire weather folks on any WWAs. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 84 53 72 50 / 0 50 30 0 Pensacola 79 58 72 54 / 0 20 20 0 Destin 78 61 73 54 / 0 10 20 0 Evergreen 86 50 72 43 / 0 50 20 0 Waynesboro 86 49 72 45 / 0 70 20 0 Camden 84 49 69 44 / 0 60 20 0 Crestview 84 56 73 46 / 0 20 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 5 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675.