textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 656 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Scattered showers and storms will remain possible through Sunday. A few strong storms capable of producing strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will be possible.

- Waterspouts are possible with any storms over the marine waters this morning, primarily from dawn through mid-morning.

- High temperatures are expected to increase next week with heat indices potentially ranging from 100-107 degrees.

UPDATE

Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A cluster of strong thunderstorms producing heavy rain and strong wind gusts is moving south through Choctaw and Wayne counties early this evening. These storms are on a weakening trend, but will likely impact portions of Washington and Greene Counties as well before diminishing after sunset. JGC/98

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Through Tuesday...A mean upper trough over the Southeast and Tennessee River Valley moves off as upper level high pressure moves over the regions early in the coming week. A drier airmass moves over the Southeast behind the shifting upper trough, with the axis of higher moisture levels shifting south and east of the forecast area in response. Rain chances become more coastally based Sunday, and offshore Monday. Any convection has a possibility of strong to marginally severe storms this weekend, with MLCapes in the 2000- 2500J/kg and DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg ranges.

With the advancing upper subsidence, temperatures rise to well above seasonal norms into the coming week. Mid to upper 90s return for Monday and Tuesday. The shifting moisture levels will help to temper Heat Indices going to the coming week, though. Even so, 100-107F, locally higher, values are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are expected through the short term.

Tuesday night on, a surface ridge develops along the eastern side of the Appalachians, in response to the shifting upper ridge. Guidance continues to advertise a closed upper low moving west over the northern Gulf coast. The surface ridge moves a significantly drier airmass southwest over the Southeast as the upper low begins to move onshore over the region, limiting rain chances the rest of the week over land areas. PoPs remain over the Gulf, with moisture levels remaining high over the Gulf. This upper low does bring increased cloud cover, dropping temperatures to closer, but a still a bit above, seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected through the weekend into the coming week. A more organized, moderate to strong easterly flow will bring an increased swell to area beaches, along with a Moderate to High Rip Risk to area beaches by mid week. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period outside of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon (20-30% coverage). Isolated showers also cannot be ruled out near the coast early Sunday morning. Ceiling and visibility reductions to MVFR or briefly lower will be possible with any of this activity, and a few storms could produce wind gusts over 30 knots, mainly inland. Light and variable winds tonight will become northwesterly in the morning, turning generally southwesterly during the afternoon at around 5-10 knots over coastal counties. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

An upper high moving over the Tennessee River Valley/Southeast, with shift a surface high over the northern Gulf, bringing a more variable flow to area waters early in the coming week. A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians through the coming week, bringing a moderate easterly flow to area waters, with moderate to strong flow over open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is expected mid week on. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 92 74 94 / 10 30 10 10 Pensacola 77 91 77 93 / 10 30 10 10 Destin 77 89 77 92 / 20 20 10 10 Evergreen 70 94 71 96 / 10 20 0 0 Waynesboro 72 95 72 97 / 30 30 0 0 Camden 72 93 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 Crestview 72 92 72 94 / 10 30 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.