textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Patchy to areas of fog are expected tonight into Saturday morning. Fog may be locally dense resulting in hazardous travel conditions.

- A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect into tonight for strong rip currents creating dangerous swimming conditions. A MODERATE to HIGH risk of rip currents returns Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures have returned for the foreseeable future.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Now through Friday...

An upper level shortwave moving through a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus moves quickly off. A weak cold front near the northern Gulf coast sags south over the Gulf in response and stalls over the central Gulf as a weak surface ridge moves over the Southeast for the weekend. A closed upper low dives south over the western Conus over the weekend into the coming week, shifting an upper ridge over the Plains eastward to over the eastern Conus. This ridge eventually becomes a strong upper high centered over the northern Caribbean in the coming week. The surface ridge over the Southeast builds as the upper ridge builds in response, with increasing southeasterly flow over the forecast area through the coming week. The building upper high is expected to deflect northeastward the western upper low as it moves over the Plains. Even with the onshore flow, deep layer moisture return is modest at best over the forecast area and nearby. Guidance is advertising rainshowers and a few thunderstorms returning the end of the forecast, but feel any coverage will be minimal with the better dynamics remaining well north of the area. What is more likely is temperatures rising to well above seasonal norms. Upper 70s to low 80s start the week for high temperatures, which quickly rise in the 80-85 degree range for the latter half of the week. High temperatures do remain cooler along the coast as the flow over water temperatures in the low to mid 60s off the Florida coast, upper 50s to low 60s over the Mississippi/Alabama coast. Low temperatures see the same rise. from low to mid 50s Sunday to the low to mid 60s by Thursday night.

Persistent onshore flow increasing onshore swell and a large tidal rain is bringing a High Risk for rip currents to area beaches today. Am expecting this to decrease tonight into the weekend. The more consistent onshore flow in the coming week will bring increasing swell to area beaches, and a Moderate to High Risk of rip currents beginning the mid week. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR flight category to MVFR flight category currently prevails across the area. The expectation is for ceilings and visibility to begin to become reduced to or below IFR flight category late tonight through Saturday morning in association with fog development. Fog lifts after daybreak, with MVFR to VFR flight category returning by mid to late morning. Winds will remain light out of the north at less than 5 knots tonight into Saturday. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Moderate onshore flow currently will shift to a light to moderate late Friday into Friday night as a system moves east of area waters. Light onshore flow begins to return early in the week, with some strengthening to moderate to at times strong mid week as the pressure gradient tightens on the southwest side of a surface ridge building over the Southeast. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 54 77 52 77 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 56 74 55 73 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 56 71 55 72 / 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 50 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 48 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 49 74 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 51 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.