textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Periods of heavy rain are expected today through Saturday with the potential of localized flooding.

- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents tonight through Friday night for the beaches of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Deep west-southwesterly flow will bring abundant moisture into the region today, with precipitable water (PWAT) values increasing to 1.5- 1.8 inches by this evening. An inverted surface trough will advance from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf today, followed by a surface low and warm front lifting north toward the Florida Panhandle tonight. This surface low will then shift east of the area Friday morning. Meanwhile, a series of upper level impulses will traverse the region through the remainder of the week, resulting in definite precipitation chances (pops) today into the evening hours, followed by likely to definite pops late this evening through Saturday. Embedded elevated non-severe thunderstorms are expected south of the U.S. Highway 84 corridor today into the evening hours, followed by embedded thunderstorms across much of the forecast area late this evening through around noon on Friday. Primarily moderate rain is forecast Friday afternoon through Saturday as the surface low shifts east of the area. Our entire area is outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Friday, and for areas southeast of the I-65 corridor on Saturday as there remains a signal for modest probabilities for the potential of heavy rain. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches are forecast for much of the area, with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. The entire system will exit the area near the end of the weekend, with a dry period returning through the middle of next week.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents today will increase to MODERATE tonight through Friday night, and is expected to drop back to LOW over the weekend. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through most of tonight, followed by increasing clouds and lower ceilings moving into the area from the west late tonight through Thursday morning along with increasing rain chances. IFR conditions can be expected for much of the area after 12Z as low ceilings and rain spread across the area. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Mariners operating small craft on the Gulf should exercise caution this afternoon and tonight as easterly winds increase and then shift southeasterly due to an inverted surface trough advancing from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf. Mariners operating small craft should exercise caution over all our marine areas early next week as a strong surface high builds in from the north. Mariners should also be on the lookout for higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with numerous to widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms today through the remainder of the week. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 54 46 56 47 / 100 80 70 70 Pensacola 58 51 61 52 / 90 80 90 80 Destin 59 52 66 53 / 80 80 90 80 Evergreen 52 43 56 44 / 90 90 80 70 Waynesboro 47 40 52 41 / 100 90 60 50 Camden 47 40 52 40 / 90 90 70 50 Crestview 53 45 60 48 / 90 90 90 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.