textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 - There is the potential for a few severe storms with localized strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday, with the best chance occurring this afternoon and tonight.

- Summertime heat returns over the weekend into early next week. Heat advisories possible over portions of the area early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Have updated to lower pops to chance for the remainder of the night. Made additional adjustments to temperature trends and dewpoints as well. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

24.12Z upper air maps show the axis of a mid to high level ridge centered over northern MX across the lower 4 corners of the Desert Southwest. The nose of this feature is oriented southeast to the Gulf. On the northeast periphery of the ridge, resides an active northwest flow at high levels of which is embedded a couple of notable convective features. The first and closest to the local area is sinking southeast over southwest MS and a second, more potent complex with concentrated lightning activity was dropping southeast over east OK/western AR. The first feature will likely see a mesoscale outflow boundary and mid level energy being the source of focus for additional convective initiation as it sinks southeast into a warm, moist and unstable environment over the central Gulf coast. Mesoanalysis on the pre-storm environment from late AM shows the best instability/deep layer moisture gradients (SBCAPE's 2000- 4000 J/Kg)(PWAT's: 1.6 to 2.0") oriented from southern MS, westward across LA. While deep layer shear remains rather weak at this time, there does appear to be a window for a slight uptick in 0-3km shear to around 20 to 25 knots. This would likely be enough to support some multicellular clusters and potentially a little more robust outflow driven system or cluster of storms which is supported in the latest convection allowing models (CAM's) and short range ensembles. Development of and southeastward moving clusters of storms, a few of which could become marginally severe with damaging winds being the main threats is advertised in the near term. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the area, generally west of a Greenville AL to Pensacola FL line, in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for through tonight. A similar pattern continues into the day Thursday too.

Due to recent excessive rains, especially in the hardest hit areas, antecedent soil moisture levels and low flash flood guidance are such that any heavy rains from storms through tonight could quickly lead to runoff and flooding issues over problem lower lying and urbanized areas subject to poor drain off of storm water. Considering this, a slight risk of flash flooding is outlooked for much of the area.

By the end of the week, upper ridging will quickly begin to build over the southeastern US. Large scale compressional sinking will result in two outcomes: One, a decrease in storm chances and secondly a rise in temperatures. Heat indices look to climb into the triple digits area-wide by the weekend with highs heating up into lower/mid 90's. The latest gridded forecast suggests heat products may be required for portions of the area the start of next week as heat indices move into advisory criteria 108-112 then. /10

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Mostly VFR conditions across the area this evening as a cluster of storms progresses eastward across the Florida Panhandle. Light rain should diminish over the next couple of hours with a light and variable wind. Conditions should remain VFR throughout the night with some scattered instances of MVFR ceilings might be possible after midnight mainly north of highway 84. Scattered storms may re-develop during the earl morning hours along the immediate coastline leading to some temporary reductions in visibilites where the heaviest storms occur. VFR conditions should prevail elsewhere throughout the forecast with light westerly winds. BB/8

MARINE

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Mariners are urged to stay weather aware in the near term for clusters of thunderstorms that spread south and southeast off the coast. A few of the storms will likely be strong with wind gusts perhaps in excess of 40 kts, locally higher waves/seas, frequent lightning and brief visibility reducing heavy rains. Away from storms, a weak stationary front straddles the coast bringing variable winds through tonight. The boundary lifts back up to the north Thursday and dissipates as south to southwest flow becomes established from high pressure setting up over the southwest Atlantic into the central Gulf Friday through the weekend. Seas 2 feet or less. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 88 74 90 / 30 70 10 10 Pensacola 73 87 77 90 / 30 70 50 20 Destin 77 86 77 88 / 30 60 50 20 Evergreen 71 85 71 90 / 30 60 30 40 Waynesboro 72 88 72 93 / 40 40 10 10 Camden 71 84 71 89 / 30 40 20 30 Crestview 72 86 72 90 / 40 80 50 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.