textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1036 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 - A Slight Risk of severe storms exists through tonight northwest of the I-65 corridor, with a Marginal Risk to the southeast. A Slight Risk of severe storms continues into Saturday, especially along and west of the I-65 corridor. - Localized flash flooding will be possible through tonight northwest of the I-65 corridor.

- Areas of dense marine fog will impact area bays and sounds and near shore waters at times tonight through Saturday. Strong northerly winds over the marine area Saturday night through Monday morning will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

MESOANALYSIS UPDATE

Issued at 1010 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Now Through Saturday... We continue to monitor the potential for strong to severe storms and localized flash flooding tonight into tomorrow. An amplified, positively-tilted trough currently stretches across the central US, with a surface warm front extending generally from southwest to northeast over Wayne, Choctaw, and Clarke counties. Multiple shortwaves, embedded within southwesterly flow aloft, continue to pass overhead, allowing for slow-moving showers and thunderstorms to develop and train along the warm front. Several areas over southeast Mississippi (mainly over Wayne county and northern Perry county) have already received up to 5-7 inches of rain from previous storms earlier today. If storms continue to move over these saturated areas, we could see a localized flash flooding concern materialize tonight. Elsewhere, not too much rain has fallen today, and therefore our confidence in flooding rains is much lower.

Over the coming hours, we anticipate convective coverage to increase once again over southeast Mississippi (and points west) as the trough finally becomes more progressive and flow aloft becomes a bit more diffluent. Looking at the latest 00z sounding from LIX, there is plenty of deep layer shear and instability in place within the warm sector to support storm organization. Current hodographs are rather elongated, with the bulk of their curvature occurring in the lowest levels, giving way to 0-1km SRH values of around 150-200 m2/s2. Storm relative inflow winds are on the weaker side (around 25 knots), and with saturated boundary layer conditions up to 700mb followed by a warm layer above 700mb, this environment supports the development of mini, low-topped supercells (mini spinnies). It should also be noted that CAMs are suggesting an increase in the strength of the low-level jet throughout the night tonight, which should help to increase SRH values across the area. Therefore, the primary threats for any storm that can become severe will be damaging winds and a few tornadoes. For tonight, the greatest severe threat will be for southwest Mississippi into portions of southwest Alabama through, with little to no storms anticipated for areas east of the I-65 corridor. Storms, along with the wind/tornado threat will finally push east of I-65 by the late morning/early afternoon hours on Saturday. However, with very limited forcing (height falls only around 20 meters at best), expecting the severe potential to be rather limited at this time. We dry out by Saturday evening as a cold front pushes through the area. /96

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

A much cooler and drier airmass will move into the forecast area behind the passing cold front. A tight pressure gradient behind the front will result in breezy northerly winds through late Sunday afternoon. High temperatures late this weekend into early next week should only reach into the 50s to near 60 degrees, except only from about 50-55 degrees on Monday. Overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night should fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s over interior areas, with readings in the mid 30s along the coast. Highs should rebound into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday. Another strong cold front still looks on track to push through the forecast area late Wednesday night. A few light showers may accompany the front, mainly across locations east of I-65 and near the coast. Highs on Thursday should only range in the mid 40s to lower 50s on Thursday behind this reinforcing cold airmass. A widespread freeze may occur over most locations away from the immediate coast Thursday night with lows in the mid 20 to around 32 degrees (lows closer to the mid 30s along the beaches). Highs on Friday may trend slightly warmer into the mid to upper 50s across the region.

Beach Forecast: A MODERATE rip current risk will continue through Sunday afternoon, becoming LOW Sunday night into midweek.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

IFR to LIFR ceilings have developed near the immediate coast this evening, with ceilings holding at MVFR at KMOB as of 04Z. Ceilings should gradually deteriorate to IFR to LIFR over the rest of the forecast area through the overnight hours with patchy fog also reducing visibility to MVFR to IFR (perhaps very locally to LIFR) thresholds overnight along the coast, including the local TAF sites. Ceilings may improve to MVFR by Saturday afternoon, except for localized IFR ceilings holding near the immediate coast. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent over areas along and northwest of I-65 late this evening before coverage expands eastward across the region late tonight into Saturday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1036 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Areas of dense marine fog have developed over a few area bays and sounds and adjacent near shore waters this evening. These areas of fog may persist through Saturday afternoon prior to the arrival of a strong cold front. We have issued a Dense Marine Fog Advisory for the affected marine zones through Saturday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the entire marine area starting at 9 PM Saturday in the wake of the strong cold front. Gusts to gale force will be possible offshore Saturday night through Sunday night. This advisory is set to expire for all bays and the Mississippi Sound at noon Sunday, and for the Gulf waters at 9 AM Monday as the strong northerly winds diminish.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 66 74 44 / 60 70 90 10 Pensacola 74 67 74 49 / 20 40 80 30 Destin 72 65 73 50 / 10 20 70 50 Evergreen 78 65 76 43 / 50 60 90 20 Waynesboro 75 63 71 41 / 90 90 90 10 Camden 75 63 73 41 / 70 90 90 10 Crestview 78 65 77 46 / 20 30 80 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ630>636-650- 655.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675.