textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought will continue to exacerbate wildfire activity.

- A moderate to strong offshore flow may return this coming weekend for most of the marine waters in the wake of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Now through Tuesday...

An upper level ridge builds east over the Southern Plains and Southeast, deflecting any shortwave energy well north of the forecast area. A moderate cold front moves south over the Southeast Friday night into Saturday in response to a stronger set of shortwaves passing the Southeast. A surface ridge develops and builds west over the Southeast in response to the building upper ridge through the week ahead of the coming surface front. Deep layer moisture levels remain modest over the Southeast through the week, averaging 1.1"-1.3" over and near the forecast area. There is a slight chance of rain showers Wednesday with the building upper ridge still weak combined with a bit of passing shortwave energy. PoPs are expected to remain low. The rest of the week is expected to remain rain free, with the advancing upper ridge suppressing any precipitation into the weekend, including with the coming front. Shortwave energy digging south over the western Conus will shift the upper ridge east over the weekend, to over the Southeast by Monday.

Looking at temperatures, well above seasonal temperatures are expected through most of the forecast. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday rise into the mid to upper 80s by Friday over most of the forecast area. The coming front will drop high temperatures closer to, but still above seasonal norms for the weekend. Mid 70s to around 80 are expected for the weekend. High temperatures creep back up to the around 80 to low 80s by Tuesday in the coming week. Low temperatures see the same rise/fall/rise, rising to the upper 50s to low 60s by Thursday night. The approaching front will drop low temperatures into the low to mid 50s Saturday night. From there, low temperatures slow rise into the mid 50s to around 60 by Tuesday night.

Onshore flow remains weak but semi-organized through the rest of the week into the weekend, keeping the risk of dangerous rip currents low. Post fropa, moderate easterly flow develops as the offshore flow shifts to easterly, bringing a moderate to high risk of rip currents by Sunday. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

MVFR flight category this morning will gradually improve back to VFR late morning into this afternoon. Late this evening into the overnight hours tonight flight category will drop down to IFR to LIFR as patchy, locally dense fog and low stratus develop. Winds will be generally out of the southeast today at 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable late this evening into tonight. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Light to moderate easterly flow today diminishes to a light easterly flow Thursday, becoming a light onshore flow Friday. A cold front will move offshore as we head into the weekend bringing a moderate to strong offshore flow to the marine area. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Saturday into Sunday. MM/25

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Very dry fuels and a lack of rain over the forecast area will allow for an increased risk of wildfires continuing through the week. 20ft winds are expected to remain light enough to limit the need for any RFWs. The wild card is a seabreeze developing along the coast, and moving inland in the afternoon, bringing locally gusty winds possibly causing issues over our coastal counties. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 79 60 81 60 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 61 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 72 61 74 63 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 79 55 85 57 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 82 59 84 60 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 78 57 82 58 / 10 0 0 0 Crestview 78 55 83 57 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.