textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through early next week.

- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected into early next week.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

An upper high off the East Coast builds/shifts west over the northeastern Gulf coast into the coming week, shifting a weak embedded upper trough over the Southeast west of the region. A weakly organized surface ridge over the Southeast meanders around over the region, eventually shifting south to over the Northern Gulf/northern Gulf Coast by Monday night. Alternating bands of drier and moister air moving over the forecast area into Saturday night will help to limit PoPs, with isolated to scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. By Sunday, moisture levels over the forecast area rise into the 2.0"-2.2" range, helping to overcome increased upper subsidence over the forecast area. The result is scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms expected Sunday and Monday. Looking at soundings each day, the upper subsidence will help to delay convection to late morning into the afternoon over land areas. With MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg, strong storms are possible. When combined with DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg range, pulse type severe storms remain a possibility.

Temperature around to a bit above seasonal norms are expected into the coming week. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s, upper 80s along the coast. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are expected. Heat Indices in the 100 to 107 degree range are expected.

Tuesday through Friday...a stream of shortwave energy passing along the north side of the upper ridge will help to flatten it, allowing shortwave energy to pass closer to the forecast area. Guidance is inconsistent with this respect. Current forecast is based upon a blend of the ensemble guidance, with isolated to scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms expected. PoPs do decrease through the extended as moisture levels decrease. Temperatures rise back to above seasonal norms, with daytime heat indices topping out in the 100-107 degree range over most of the forecast area.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to a Moderate is indicated Saturday, with the onshore flow a bit better organized combined with an increasing tidal cycle. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period, outside of any thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon before diminishing early this evening. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings, along with gusty and erratic winds, near any thunderstorms. Winds around 10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts will continue at the terminals through late afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A weakly organized surface ridge over/near the northern Gulf coast will create a light to at times moderate mostly onshore flow through the forecast. Near coastal areas will see a switch to offshore flow overnight into the morning hours at times as a land breeze sets up with the night cooling. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 73 92 73 / 30 0 20 20 Pensacola 90 75 93 77 / 40 0 20 10 Destin 89 77 91 78 / 20 0 20 20 Evergreen 92 72 93 73 / 10 10 30 20 Waynesboro 94 73 94 73 / 10 10 20 20 Camden 91 73 91 73 / 20 0 20 10 Crestview 93 72 93 73 / 20 0 20 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.