textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Beneficial rains end from west to east through Saturday morning. Additional rainfall amounts up to around 1 inch are possible along and east of I-65. - Strong northerly winds today and tonight will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Rain over the forecast area ends from west to east overnight into Saturday morning as a surface low moves across the north central Gulf and into the Big Bend area before exiting off into the western Atlantic. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible mainly over the southern portion of the area, but severe storms are not expected. Dry conditions follow through Tuesday. An upper low meanwhile advances into the western states on Monday, then becomes absorbed into a large positively tilted upper trof pattern which evolves over the central to southwest states through Tuesday night. The upper trof takes on a meridional orientation then broadens through Thursday while progressing into the eastern half of the CONUS, with an associated surface low meanwhile bringing a cold front through the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday. As the front approaches, will have slight chance to chance pops on Wednesday, then chance to likely pops follow for Wednesday night into Thursday as the front moves through. Will need to continue to monitor for the potential of strong storm development mainly from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night depending on how the pattern plays out. Very dry deep layer air flows into the region in the wake of the front, and anticipate dry conditions to develop over the area on Friday and continue into Saturday. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for the western Florida panhandle beaches on Saturday and Saturday night, with a low risk otherwise anticipated through Monday. A moderate risk of rip currents follows for Tuesday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Rain with a few embedded storms ends from west to east overnight into Saturday morning. IFR/MVFR conditions are expected overnight, then clearing occurs as the precipitation comes to an end. North to northeast winds 5-15 knots are expected through Saturday then diminish to 5 knots or less Saturday evening. /29

MARINE

Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Strong offshore flow will continue through early Sunday morning before gradually diminishing by the end of this weekend. These strong winds will result in hazardous seas and boating conditions for small craft through tonight. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will gradually end of west to east today. Surface high pressure builds over the area by early next week with a return to light winds and seas. Light onshore flow will return Monday afternoon with winds and seas again increasing ahead of the next storm system by the middle of next week. /JLH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 48 75 50 / 20 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 53 74 56 / 50 0 0 0 Destin 73 56 75 58 / 70 0 0 0 Evergreen 72 43 75 44 / 40 0 0 0 Waynesboro 71 45 75 46 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 70 45 72 46 / 30 0 0 0 Crestview 73 45 76 46 / 60 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675.