textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon and the main threat will be damaging winds. Heavy rainfall in storms may lead to additional flash flooding.

- Heat Risk Concerns: Heat indices of 100-105 expected today and tomorrow across much of the area.

- HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through at least Friday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Our active weather pattern continues with westerly to northwesterly flow aloft setting up over the area in response to a trough transiting the Mid-Atlantic states the next few days. A back door cold front moves across the area Wednesday in response to this trough, and will allow for drier, cooler air to infiltrate the area mid to late week. Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms the next couple days, with rain chances dwindling significantly mid to late week. Southeast Mississippi may hang on to some small rain chances Wednesday before the front is fully through the area. Afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 90's today and tomorrow become near or just below seasonable norms in the 80's Wednesday through the weekend. Afternoon heat indices once again top out in the 100 to 105 range today and Tuesday.

Some strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into the evening hours, best chances near and north of the Highway 84 corridor. Generally weak shear around 15 to 25 knots over the interior, weaker towards the coast, coupled with the passing shortwave and 4,000 to 5,000j/kg of CAPE should allow for loosely organized clusters of storms to develop this afternoon. There'll likely be two areas of focus, with the first being on an eventual MCS to develop north of the area in northern Alabama that sags southward with time, likely reaching our forecast area late afternoon into the evening hours. This will have the best threat for any strong to severe storms owing to the "stronger" shear with primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Further south nearer the coast, afternoon thunderstorms will likely fire off on whatever sea breeze boundary tries to work its way inland. Shear is much weaker down south, and the expectation would be for more pulse type storms than anything. These still could pose a threat for small hail and/or damaging wind gusts in any microbursts. Any storms today will pose the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, particularly if storms can remain stationary or train over the same locations or areas that were hard hit the past week. While some risk for strong storms persists Tuesday, weak shear should preclude any organized severe risk with main hazards being gusty winds and small hail. Once again, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is possible Tuesday with any slow moving storms. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions generally prevail through the period. We are still expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon (around 21z), with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions along with gusty, erratic winds near the storms. Westerly to southwesterly winds 5-10 knots will generally occur along the coast this afternoon, becoming variable sunset. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists today. Winds shift to northerly and then easterly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, strengthening to moderate to occasionally strong flow through the end of the week. Seas increase to 5 to 7 feet by mid week. Southeasterly flow develops Friday through much of the weekend. Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 74 91 69 / 50 30 50 60 Pensacola 91 76 91 70 / 40 20 40 60 Destin 88 77 89 70 / 30 10 40 60 Evergreen 94 73 92 65 / 50 30 50 40 Waynesboro 94 73 91 67 / 60 30 50 30 Camden 93 73 89 64 / 50 30 30 30 Crestview 94 73 93 65 / 50 20 50 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.