textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 732 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon and the main threat will be damaging winds. Heavy rainfall in storms may lead to additional flash flooding.

- Heat Risk Concerns: Heat indices of 100-105 expected today and tomorrow across much of the area.

- HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through at least Friday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 732 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A few robust showers developed along the coastal counties around sunrise this morning and dropped a quick 1-2 inches of rain. Recent high-res guidance indicates that the forecast is generally on track with storms developing by 17-18z this afternoon. The environment will be more than favorable for severe storms throughout the afternoon and evening hours today. Looking well to our northwest, an MCS is quickly sliding across parts of the Midwest at this hour. This MCS will eventually dip into the Southeast and Deep South at some point today. There still remains some uncertainty as to whether the MCS makes it into our area late this afternoon and evening. Regardless, expect the predominant threats in any strong to severe storms to be damaging winds and hail. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An upper trof oriented from the Great Lakes to the New England area progresses down into the extreme southeast states through Tuesday night. In response to this system, a surface low near the Georgia coast moves off into the western Atlantic and in the process brings a weak frontal boundary southward to near the coast Monday morning. The weak boundary becomes diffuse Monday afternoon and appears to drift into the central portion of the forecast area before returning to near the coast Monday night. The weak boundary lingers near the coast on Tuesday, then a back-door cold front is expected to push through the area from the east in response to a large surface high building over the eastern states. On top of the active synoptic pattern, there is the potential for an MCS to move through the area on both Monday and Tuesday. Have gone with chance to likely pops for Monday then mainly likely pops follow for Tuesday. MLCAPE values of 1500-3000 J/kg, potentially higher, are indicated Monday afternoon with values of 1500-2500 J/kg for Tuesday afternoon. Shear values look low through Tuesday, with 0-6 km bulk shear of 20 knots or less. However, should an MCS develop then higher shear values will be realized depending on the strength of the MCS. SPC currently has a marginal risk of severe storms over interior areas on Monday and over part of the eastern portion on Tuesday. Will continue to message the potential for strong to potentially severe storms on both days due to ample instability and also the potential MCS each day.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as an upper ridge builds into the area, then a trend towards mainly chance pops is expected by Saturday as the upper ridge weakens and shifts eastward. Highs on Monday will be in the lower 90s with upper 80s to lower 90s expected for Tuesday. Heat index values of 100-105 are anticipated Monday afternoon with a bit lower values for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler in the wake of the back-door front and range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs then trend to the mid 80s for Friday and Saturday. Lows Monday night will be in the 70s then trend much cooler by Wednesday night to range from the upper 50s well inland to the mid 60s near the coast. Overnight lows then trend warmer through Saturday night to range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s at the coast. A moderate rip current risk is expected Monday for the western Florida panhandle beaches while a low risk is anticipated for the Alabama beaches. A low risk is expected for all beaches on Tuesday, then a moderate risk follows for Wednesday. A High Risk of rip currents is expected on Thursday and Friday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 732 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions generally prevail through the period. Storms will develop this afternoon with the potential for an MCS to slide across the area from the north by late afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions along with gusty, erratic winds are possible near storms. Southwesterly to southerly winds increase along the coast this afternoon with gusts up to 18 knots. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists through Monday. Winds turn northerly late Tuesday and easterly by the middle of the week. Small craft conditions are possible Wednesday through Friday in moderate to strong easterly to southeasterly flow. Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 73 92 69 / 30 40 60 60 Pensacola 90 76 90 70 / 30 30 50 70 Destin 88 76 88 70 / 30 20 50 80 Evergreen 93 72 90 65 / 60 40 60 40 Waynesboro 93 72 90 67 / 50 20 60 20 Camden 90 71 86 64 / 50 20 50 20 Crestview 93 72 93 65 / 50 30 60 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.