textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Breezy winds and low relative humidity will create dangerous burning conditions today. - Strong winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through late tonight, and possibly on Thursday as well.

- A HIGH risk of rip currents will return along the beaches Thursday and Friday and create dangerous swimming conditions

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Cool surface high pressure settles over the area tonight in the wake of a cold front. Lows tonight range from the mid 20s inland to around 30 at the coast, and wind chill values drop to around 25 over interior areas and in the mid to upper 20s over the southern portion of the area. This looks to remain just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria over the southern portion of the area so have held off on issuance at this point but will continue to assess. A warming trend follows through Wednesday when highs will be in the lower 70s, with lows Wednesday night in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A large upper trof over the eastern states meanwhile moves off into the western Atlantic tonight with a broad upper trof evolving over the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This next upper trof eventually moves off into the western Atlantic with an associated surface low meanwhile bringing a cold front through the forecast area Thursday night. Dry conditions continue over the area through Wednesday, then have gone with pops increasing to chance to likely by Thursday afternoon and likely to categorical for Thursday night as the front approaches and moves through. Rain chances taper off to mostly dry conditions from west to east on Friday into Friday evening, although a small chance for rain could linger over the far eastern portion into Saturday. Slight chance pops follow for Sunday and Monday as a series of modest shortwaves move across the area and a return flow becomes established.

Temperatures for Thursday through Monday remain mild despite the passage of the front Thursday night. A low risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday, then a moderate risk is expected for Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a high risk following for Thursday and Friday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning. Breezy northwesterly winds around 15 knots diminish and become northerly tonight, then a light southerly flow starts to develop Tuesday morning. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Moderate to strong northerly winds diminish tonight with a light onshore flow developing on Tuesday. A moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly flow prevails for Tuesday night through Thursday. Winds switch to a northerly direction late Thursday night into Friday morning as a cold front moves through. Have continued with a Small Craft Advisory for the entire marine area through 9 pm this evening which then tapers off over the open Gulf waters through 3 am tonight. Small craft may need to exercise caution over the open Gulf waters late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and again late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. It's possible that a Small Craft Advisory may become necessary on Thursday. /29

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Have expanded the Red Flag Warning to include the entire area due to breezy winds around 15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph along with relative humidity values down to 20-25%. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 27 58 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 31 56 48 71 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 32 57 48 69 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 24 58 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 25 58 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 23 56 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 25 57 39 73 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ670-675.