textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to possible flash flooding will occur over the next several days.

- HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through at least Friday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Forecast generally remains on track this morning as the low clouds and patchy fog continue to lift across the area. Visibility bottomed out around 1/2 statue mile across much of the area with a few spots occasionally dipping lower over the past 2-3 hours. The next batch of showers and storms has already begun to develop to our west over southeast Louisiana this morning. Expect showers and storms to blossom over our area as we roll into the late morning and afternoon hours, yet again, today. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A southerly to southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue through Friday as our local area remains in between an upper ridge over the western Atlantic and upper troughing over the western/central US. As we have seen for several days now, embedded shortwaves will move within this upper flow pattern, passing over/near our local area. With forcing from the shortwaves moving overhead, along with deep tropical moisture advecting in from the Gulf (PWATs generally ranging around 1.8-2.1 inches) and strong instability due to diurnal heating, shower and thunderstorm development is expected to continue. Scattered storms will likely develop during the mid to late morning hours over coastal counties, and will become more numerous as they push inland. With limited shear, the potential for organized severe weather remains very low. That being said, as we typically see with pulse-type storms, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail. The main concern through Friday will be heavy rainfall. The slow-moving nature of these storms, as well as the deep moisture in place, will lead to storms being efficient rainfall producers (rates potentially as high as 2-3 in/hr). If storms manage to train over the same areas, especially over areas which have seen abundant rainfall over the past week, then we could see localized instances of flash flooding.

The upper-level pattern begins to change this weekend and into early next week as upper troughing digs across the northeast US and into the western Atlantic, helping to shunt the upper ridge farther into the Atlantic. This will allow for winds aloft to transition to a more westerly to northwesterly flow pattern. Embedded shortwaves will continue to pass overhead and deep moisture will remain in place, keeping showers and storms in the forecast through early next week. One thing we always have to keep an eye on in northwesterly flow patterns this time of year is if storms that develop upstream are able to organize into MCSs and push down towards our local area. Still a bit too far out for any specifics, but just something to watch over the coming days. Rain chances may finally start to decrease by midweek next week.

Highs will generally top out in the mid to upper 80s throughout the period. Lows will be mild and humid, with temperatures only dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s inland and the low to mid 70s closer to the coast. Additionally, with saturated boundary-layer conditions and light winds, cannot rule out the development of patchy fog during the late night/early morning hours each day, particularly over inland counties. A High Risk of rip currents will continue through Friday, potentially lowering to a Moderate Risk for the weekend. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

IFR/MVFR conditions will continue to improve to VFR over the next hour to VFR visibility and MVFR ceilings. Winds will turn more southerly through mid-morning. Another round of showers and storms is expected this afternoon with MVFR ceilings/visibilities and localized IFR conditions within any storms. Another round of light fog and low ceilings is possible again tonight. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Light onshore flow persists through Friday before winds turn more westerly over the weekend and into early next week. Locally higher winds and seas are possible near thunderstorms this week. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 85 71 86 71 / 70 20 60 30 Pensacola 85 73 86 74 / 60 10 40 40 Destin 84 74 85 74 / 50 10 40 50 Evergreen 87 70 87 70 / 60 20 70 40 Waynesboro 86 70 86 70 / 60 20 60 40 Camden 86 69 85 69 / 40 30 70 60 Crestview 87 70 89 71 / 60 10 60 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.