textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Strong northerly winds today and tonight will create hazardous marine conditions for small craft.

- Near record low temperatures are likely tonight.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible by the middle of this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

After a few days of very beneficial rain, the clouds have cleared and the sun is out this afternoon as drier air moves into the area. An unseasonably cool and dry airmass has moved into the area this morning as a large upper trough continues its trek east into the Atlantic. Dry northwesterly flow has developed in the troughs wake and should persist through at least early next week. Dry conditions will allow all the rain that we received the last few days to soak up and assist with slowly alleviating our ongoing drought conditions. The main talk will be the cold temperatures tonight and Sunday night as lows will drop into the upper 40s. These temperatures will flirt with near daily record lows and will feel delightful for the first week of May. Certainly could be way worse thats for sure. By Monday and Tuesday, gradual return flow should begin as our next system approaches from the west. Southwesterly flow will develop aloft through Wednesday as a large upper level low moves into the four corners region on Tuesday.

The system finally arrives on Wednesday into Wednesday night as the upper low ejects over the mid-Mississippi valley. While there is a very weak signal for the potential for strong to severe storms the evolution of this jet streak and orientation of the upper trough really does not favor a more widespread severe risk for our area. The main diffluence from the subtropical jet will likely eject across northern Mississippi into the mid-south Wednesday afternoon with more shortwave ridging across the area keeping us capped during the afternoon despite a rather impressive kinematic environment. Some storms may be able to sneak there way down by the early evening across our far northwest and will be dependent on how strong the upper ridge is. IF a storm can sneak into our northwestern areas of southeastern Mississippi then a conditional severe risk may occur. By late Wednesday night, the right entrance region of the upper jet will slowly spread over the area as a cold front drops down from the northwest. Scattered to numerous storms will accompany the cold front but given the gradual to modest height falls occurring along or potentially right behind the front storms will be confined mainly along and behind the boundary likely limiting the severe threat. Couple this with poor instability during the overnight hours you can pain the picture of a rather low end severe threat. However, deep layer shear will be strong and any storms that could achieve some strength and remain surface based will be capable of sporadic damaging winds. We will have to monitor the trends over the next couple of days to see how the overall severe threat will develop but as of now it is looking on the lower end. Drier conditions will once again return by the end of the week as the cold front pushes offshore. BB-8

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Breezy northerly winds will decrease to around 5-10 knots this evening. Light northwesterly winds develop for Sunday afternoon. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Strong offshore flow will gradually diminishing by the end of this weekend. Surface high pressure builds over the area by early next week with a return to light winds and seas. Light onshore flow will return Monday afternoon with winds and seas again increasing ahead of the next storm system by the middle of next week. Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms could be possible Wednesday night as our next cold front moves through the offshore marine waters. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 48 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 53 77 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 56 76 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 44 77 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 45 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 44 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 44 79 45 83 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675.