textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 506 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Showers with locally heavy rainfall will gradually diminish today, but localized flooding remains possible.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents increases to a HIGH risk for all area beaches Tuesday afternoon and beyond.

- Monitoring the potential for another heavy rain event for late week into the weekend along with a medium potential for tropical development in the Gulf.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

After a challenging forecast over the last few days, the heavy rainfall event is finally winding down. Many locations along and south of I-10 received 4-7 inches of rain, with locally higher totals near 10 inches. A Flood Watch remains in effect through noon today as guidance hints at a final round of heavier rainfall near the coast with the cold front, though this scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely and the watch may be canceled early. PWATs remain above 2.4 inches ahead of the front, so any convection that develops could still produce locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding given saturated soils and weak steering flow. Minor river flooding is forecast along the Shoal River, with several other coastal rivers at or expected to reach action stage. Drier air will filter in from north to south this afternoon, with only a few light showers possible and highs in the lower 80s.

Northeast winds behind the front and northwest flow aloft will bring progressively drier air into the area, resulting in low rain chances Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms. East-northeast winds will increase offshore Tuesday and remain elevated through the week as the pressure gradient tightens, resulting in hazardous boating conditions, building seas, and increasing surf.

Attention then turns to the Gulf late week as a disturbance near the Bay of Campeche now has a 50 percent chance of tropical development according to the NHC. Regardless of development, troughing developing over the southern Plains and ridging building west over the southwest Atlantic should return Gulf moisture northward and increase rain chances by late Friday into the weekend. Another period of widespread heavy rainfall appears increasingly possible, with gusty winds, dangerous surf, and coastal flooding also possible. The eventual strength and track of any tropical system remain highly uncertain at this range, but it will be something to watch very closely over the coming days.

A Moderate risk of rip currents exists today and tonight, increasing to a HIGH risk for all area beaches by Tuesday afternoon, continuing through at least the end of the week. JGC/98

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Some lingering showers and a few storms will continue through much of this taf cycle. Cigs are 500 to 1000 feet at all sites and will eventually rise to upper IFR to MVFR levels. The periods of rain and high humidity will keep prevailing MVFR vis at most sites, and PROB30 wording will reflect the TS risk with gusty winds of 25 knots and IFR vis with any storms that develop and impact terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A light northeast flow develops today with numerous to widespread showers and storms capable of producing locally higher winds and seas. Northeast flow increases tonight and becomes strong Tuesday behind a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect starting Tuesday morning. Strong east- northeast flow is expected through the end of the week, with seas of 4-7 feet starting Tuesday. JGC/98

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 68 82 65 / 70 10 20 0 Pensacola 80 69 81 68 / 80 20 40 0 Destin 81 70 81 69 / 80 30 50 10 Evergreen 81 64 83 60 / 60 10 10 0 Waynesboro 82 65 84 62 / 30 10 0 0 Camden 82 64 83 59 / 40 20 0 0 Crestview 79 65 79 63 / 80 10 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for ALZ261>266.

FL...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for FLZ201>206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670-675.