textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Temperatures will continue to warm by the end of this week and will remain above average through the weekend and into early next week.

- Moderate to extreme drought along with little to no rain in the forecast through next week will exasperate wildfire activity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Northerly to northwesterly flow aloft will continue through much of the period as our local area remains on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the southwest US. At the surface, high pressure has settled over the northern Gulf and will remain in place through the weekend. Although several embedded shortwaves look to pass overhead, the high in place, along with low moisture values, should help to keep rain out of the forecast through the weekend. By the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, it remains possible that a weak frontal boundary may approach and push into the local area. Some guidance is now suggesting that the front may not be able to clear the area and instead linger overhead into Wednesday. Additionally, probabilistic guidance continues to suggest a modest increase in moisture values Tuesday and Wednesday (30-40% chance of PWATs exceeding 1.2 inches). Although our forecast maintains a mainly dry forecast next week, I could potentially see a scenario where rain chances increase sometime during the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe due to this increase in moisture, shortwaves moving overhead, and the proximity of the front at the surface. That being said, with little relief expected from the ongoing drought, an elevated fire risk will continue through the period. Otherwise, very warm conditions are expected throughout the period. Highs will likely reach the low to mid 80s for most areas (upper 70s along the coast), with upper 80s possible for a few interior locations throughout the period. Lows will generally be in the 50s to low 60s. A Low Risk of rip currents continues through the weekend and into early next week. /96

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions, along with a light southerly to southwesterly flow, will prevail over the next 24 hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Light and variable flow continues today. A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow becomes prevalent for this weekend and into early next week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 53 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 57 77 60 77 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 58 74 62 75 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 50 83 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 53 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 52 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 48 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.