textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 - Summertime heat continues through this week with heat indices as high as 103 to 107 any given day. Heat indices may approach heat advisory criteria around 108 Tuesday for most locations.

- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday through late week. A strong to severe thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Hot and dry weather conditions continue to prevail across the region today into Monday. Similar to the past couple days, an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out each afternoon. Upper ridging remains dominant across the area allowing for the warmer than normal temperatures to persist. Expect highs to top out in the lower to middle 90's for most locations today and Monday.

As we head into Tuesday, our upper ridging shifts slightly north. With that shift, we enter a more easterly flow regime across the area. This allows for a slightly more active weather pattern to evolve as subtle shortwaves round the periphery of the ridge moving near or over the forecast area. The first one moves into the area from the east Tuesday afternoon, bringing the chance for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will remain east of the I-65 corridor. Storms on Tuesday may also have the chance to become strong to severe, with primary hazards being gusty to locally damaging winds in addition to heavy rainfall and lightning. Outside of storms, it will be hot with highs topping out in the lower to middle 90's once again. Better low level moisture will move in, helping to bolster heat indices even more to near Heat Advisory criteria of 108. If confidence increases on the occurrence of heat indices nearing or exceeding 108, Heat Advisories may become necessary in future forecast updates.

Beyond Tuesday, we remain generally under deep layer easterly flow with the ridge centered just north of us. This will continue to promote isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day while highs continue to top out in the lower to middle 90's. Overnight lows stay warm throughout the forecast period in the lower to middle 70's. A Low risk of rip currents continues through this week. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A strong upper subsidence inversion at 850mb will govern cloud bases along with rain chances through the forecast. No showers much less thunderstorms are expected through the forecast, with limited vertical extent of the cumulus. Upper end MVFR/VFR conditions are expected through the same period. Well inland from the coast, a more variable wind regime is expected. Closer to the coast, a seabreeze moving inland will bring southerly winds around 10 knots during the afternoon/evening, becoming northerly 5 to 10 knots overnight. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1032 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A light diurnal flow pattern will be in place through the week, with light onshore flow expected during the afternoon hours, becoming a light offshore flow each night. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 94 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 93 78 95 78 / 0 0 10 0 Destin 92 78 93 79 / 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 95 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 95 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 95 74 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 97 74 97 76 / 0 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.