textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

- A moderate rip current risk will be in place through midweek.

- Well above average temperatures are expected all week, including Christmas Day.

- Dense fog will likely become a common occurrence each night across the entire area starting Tuesday night. Dense sea fog may linger well past daybreak each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A strong upper ridge will build northward over the nation's midsection today with the axis gradually shifting eastward to near the Mississippi River on Christmas Day. This ridge will then slowly breakdown through the remainder of the week, with zonal flow returning on Sunday as a large upper trough passes over the north central and Great Lakes regions. A surface ridge across Georgia, Alabama, and northern Florida will get shunted southward through this evening, with a high pressure area eventually setting up across our area around midnight tonight and remaining into Christmas morning. These two features will keep our forecast area dry and very warm over the Christmas holiday and into the weekend. This environment will be ideal for dense fog formation each night starting tonight through potentially Saturday night. In addition, the combination of dew points rising into the lower to middle 60s during the daytime hours and moving over water temperatures in the middle to upper 50s, dense sea fog formation is likely each night that will likely linger through the morning hours. The next chance of rain showers is expected on Sunday as a strong cold front associated with the upper trough blasts through the region.

We expect high temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 70s each day this week away from the coast, with a few locations reaching the lower 80s. These temperatures are about 13 to 18 degrees above normal. Highs along the coast will be in the lower 70s due to the cool Gulf waters. Low temps will also be about 13 to 18 degrees above normal through the same time frame, and could be as high as 17 to 22 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday nights. By Monday, highs should only reach the middle 40s to lower 50s with subfreezing temperatures expected Monday night.

Beach Forecast: A MODERATE rip current risk will continue through midweek, becoming LOW Thursday through the remainder of the week. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR ceilings and visibilities should persist through much of this TAF period as drier low level air has advected below roughly 5kft under light east to northeasterly low level flow. Southeasterly winds on Tuesday will allow for a moist airmass to advect back over our coastal counties and eventually the entire forecast area Tuesday evening and night. As this occurs, expect the return of fog, potentially dense, to develop especially at the TAF sites. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Mariners operating on area bays, sounds, and the nearshore Gulf waters should be aware of dense sea fog becoming increasingly likely each night starting tonight and lingering through the remainder of the week. A light easterly to southeasterly flow will continue through tonight, becoming light and variable midweek into Thursday. Light southwesterly flow develops Thursday night and continues through the remainder of the week. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 56 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 71 57 74 55 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 71 57 73 56 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 77 52 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 77 53 77 52 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 76 52 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 76 52 78 50 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.