textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Patchy fog is possible across inland locations early Sunday and Monday mornings. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the northwestern portion of the forecast area.

- Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through early next week with increasingly humid conditions. Heat indices will climb into low to mid 90s by Monday and Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Forecast on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A predominately dry and increasingly warm/humid forecast is in store for the rest of the weekend into early next week as upper ridging strengthens across the Gulf and up along the eastern seaboard. While southerly low level flow will result in gradually increasing moisture values, the 12z LIX sounding showed an extremely dry airmass below 500 mb. This will take some time to moisten enough to result in chances for diurnal convection. Guidance indicates there could be enough localized moisture increase to support a small chance of afternoon storms across the far western and eastern areas Mon/Tue afternoon. Otherwise, the rebounding low level moisture could support the development of some patchy fog over inland areas during the early morning hours, starting early Sunday morning and persisting through early next week. In fact, the probabilities of visibilites less than a half mile have trended higher (now 30-50%) on the latest HREF for early Sunday morning. Highs through Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s with heat indices climbing into the low-mid 90 range by Mon- Tue, a sign that summer is lurking.

The Southeast upper ridging will weaken mid to late next week as series of shortwaves in southwest flow begin to have more of an influence on the region. As a result, daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase from Wednesday through next Saturday. It currently appears the best chances will be across western and northern parts of the area, with locations further east having slightly lower chances due to more of an influence of the residual upper ridging. The long range ensembles also support this idea as the probabilities of seeing widespread rain totals of greater than 1" through next Saturday range from 50-60% in the northwest counties to only around 10% in the southeast counties. Trends in the strength of the southeast ridging will be watched closely as that will ultimately determine which areas will have the best chance of seeing additional beneficial rainfall. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Generally VFR flight category prevails across the region through Sunday. A few patches of fog could locally develop tonight, mainly over the interior, temporarily reducing flight category at times through daybreak Sunday. Winds will remain generally out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 knots during the day, relaxing to less than 5 knots overnight. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southerly to southeasterly flow is expected over the next several days due to high pressure off the southeast Atlantic coast. Seas across the Gulf waters will build to around 3 feet by Monday and Tuesday. 34/JFB

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 61 85 68 86 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 66 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 69 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 59 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 59 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 61 88 63 88 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 59 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.