textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 - There is the potential for a few severe storms with localized strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall through this afternoon mainly west of I-65.

- Summertime heat returns over the weekend into early next week. Heat advisories possible over portions of the area early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Well the first shortwave certainly packed a punch this afternoon but it has luckily helped stabilize the atmosphere around here. Northwesterly flow remains in place at least through today and possibly into Friday with the upper ridge still firmly planted over northern Mexico. A couple subtle shortwaves are still present with the first one moving through the area now into the early morning hours. Scattered storms will have already begun to redevelop across the coastal counties this morning along the remnant outflow of this afternoon storms. Luckily we are at the nocturnal minimum for instability which should result in more just heavy rain showers than thunderstorms. Finally the last shortwave should kick through Thursday afternoon and evening. Much like any summer afternoon the potential is there for of another round of strong to severe storms, especially with the remaining drier air aloft. Storms should have similar issues with locally strong wind gusts and potentially a severe hailstone or two during the afternoon; however, overall shear and instability is a tick weaker and the shortwave is weaker likely leading to less coverage. Storms look to be far less organized this afternoon than yesterday and potentially a more pulse thunderstorm environment overall.

By Friday and into Saturday a more prevalent pattern change will be setting up as the upper ridge builds eastward with time. After a couple weeks of rainfall and storms, true northern Gulf summer will be upon us as heat indices look to climb back towards the triple digits and highs climb into the mid 90s. We will need to keep an eye on the heat products by the start of next week as conditions may begin to flirt with advisory criteria by Monday. Nonetheless, things look to get toasty with the upcoming high pressure settling in and a wholesale pattern change. BB-8

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR to MVFR ceilings continue to persist across the region this afternoon, with VFR conditions returning after sunset. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening, temporarily resulting in reductions in flight category. Winds remain generally out of the west around 5 knots today before becoming light and variable tonight. Winds turn more southwesterly Friday at around 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A weak stationary front remains along the coast bringing variable winds through tonight. Winds should become more southerly to southwesterly by Friday as high pressure begins to build over the area. Winds will remain in a light diurnal pattern through the weekend before becoming more easterly by mid-week. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 91 75 92 / 10 10 0 0 Pensacola 77 90 79 92 / 20 20 0 10 Destin 78 89 79 90 / 30 20 0 10 Evergreen 71 91 73 94 / 20 30 0 10 Waynesboro 72 93 73 94 / 20 10 0 0 Camden 71 90 73 93 / 20 20 0 0 Crestview 72 91 73 94 / 20 40 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.