textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- A strong system could bring gusty winds and strong to severe storms to the area late Saturday night into Sunday.

- Strong marine winds are anticipated Saturday night into Sunday night with the potential for occasional gusts to gale force resulting in hazardous boating conditions.

- High surf heights and strong rip currents will impact coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Multiple hazards are anticipated this weekend as a strong storm system moves across the area. Dense marine fog is anticipated across Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound overnight tonight through early Saturday morning. Strong to severe storms are possible early Sunday morning as a line of storms pushes across the area, with isolated strong to severe storms possible Sunday afternoon underneath an upper level low. In addition to the thunderstorm hazard, strong wind gusts of 25 to 35mph will affect land areas late Saturday night into Sunday. Strong winds and wind gusts will also occur offshore, with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots gusting to 30 knots, occasionally 35 knots in the gulf waters, from late Saturday night through Sunday night. Last but not least, high surf and strong rip currents will impact coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Well that was a mouthful, now lets dive into the details of each hazard and how the forecast will evolve over the next few days. As we head through the rest of tonight into Saturday morning, we will still be sitting on the periphery of high pressure, with light onshore winds beginning to become established through the night. This will allow for modest moisture return to begin with portions of Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound potentially having enough moisture in place and decoupling from the boundary layer to allow for dense marine fog to settle in. The best timing for this will exist from around midnight tonight through 6am Saturday morning. As we head through the rest of the day Saturday, the expectation is for isolated to scattered showers to begin working their way into southeast Mississippi as warm advection begins ahead of our next approaching system. Elsewhere should remain mostly dry during the day Saturday, with temperatures warming into the lower to middle 70's for most locations.

As we head into Saturday night and Sunday, a potent upper trough approaches the area from the west spreading ample upper difluence across the region. This will allow for at least scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop through the night, eventually being followed up with a strongly forced QLCS entering our southeast Mississippi counties close to daybreak Sunday. While there remains uncertainty in exactly how fast this progresses across the area and how much instability will be in place, most forecast guidance is advertising around 500 to 1,000j/kg of surface based instability to materialize ahead of this, highest over the southern half of the area. Most guidance has the line entering our southeast Mississippi counties at the earliest around 5 or 6am, and the latest around 8am. This line will be quick to progress across the area, reaching Alabama counties between 7am and 9am and the I-65 corridor between 9am and 11am, ultimately exiting the area sometime late morning into early afternoon. Ample wind shear with large, curved hodographs should allow for at least a low end tornado threat with the line. The primary hazard will likely be strong to damaging wind gusts over 60mph owing to a very strong low level jet characterized by 850mb winds approaching 50 to 60 knots.

As we head into the afternoon attention turns to the upper level low and surface low as they move across the area. Enough time will likely pass between the morning QLCS and these features to allow for instability to build back into the area. These features will serve as the focus for redevelopment during the afternoon as lapse rates steepen and wind shear remains around 30 to 40 knots. Guidance varies on the quality of low level wind shear due to differences in how they handle the low level wind field in the wake of the QLCS, but at least modest hodograph curvature and SR winds around 20 knots should allow for the potential of mini spinny supercells capable of producing a brief tornado or two during the afternoon hours across the area. A more robust afternoon potential could be realized if some of the more aggressive guidance on airmass recovery is realized where nearly 1,500j/kg of SBCAPE builds in. A small hail threat also can't be ruled out in the deepest storms. Timing for the afternoon round is generally anticipated from roughly 3pm to 7pm, quickly waning after loss of daytime heating.

Strong wind gusts are anticipated outside of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon across the area. The aforementioned strong low level jet combined with some low level mixing should allow for the transfer of strong wind gusts to the surface. While Wind Advisory criteria winds are not explicitly forecast right now, frequent wind gusts of 25 to 35mph, with an occasional gust to 40mph, are expected. Forecast guidance is in decent agreement that the strongest gusts will occur nearer the coast where more low level mixing of the boundary layer can occur, and if any adjustments upwards in anticipated wind gusts occur a wind advisory may be needed in future forecast updates for coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Peak wind gusts should occur from around 6am Sunday morning through 3pm Sunday afternoon.

In addition to the storms and strong non-convective winds, coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle will have to contend with strong rip currents and high surf. The period for strong rip currents is expected to be from early Saturday evening through late Monday afternoon. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect for this period 6pm Saturday through 6pm Monday. High surf heights in the 4 to 7 foot range are also expected, with some 8 foot surf heights possible, along coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Given this, a High Surf Advisory will go into effect for these areas from 3am Sunday morning through 6am Monday morning.

In the wake of the system, we return to calmer and warmer weather as we head into next week with perhaps some isolated rain chances returning late week. Highs will remain well above normal, potentially nearing record highs by mid to late week. The rip current risk will gradually taper off from a High risk on Monday to a Moderate risk Monday night and a Low risk Tuesday. MM/25

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions should generally prevail for much of the period. The only exception may be across portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, where patchy fog may develop overnight tonight, potentially to IFR or lower in spots. Light and variable winds tonight will become southeasterly by Saturday afternoon and increase to around 10-15 knots. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1206 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A light offshore flow this morning will turn onshore later this afternoon. Winds increase to moderate on Saturday and strong Saturday night into Sunday. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible Sunday, along with seas up to 7-10 feet. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect from 3am Sunday morning through 6am Monday morning. A moderate to strong offshore flow becomes established Sunday night in the wake of a cold front, gradually waning to a light to moderate offshore flow by Monday afternoon. Dense marine fog is also expected for Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound tonight where a dense fog advisory is in effect from 12am to 6am Saturday morning. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 51 72 61 73 / 0 10 90 90 Pensacola 52 68 62 73 / 0 0 90 100 Destin 52 67 60 71 / 0 0 70 100 Evergreen 45 74 56 73 / 0 0 80 100 Waynesboro 50 74 58 71 / 0 10 90 90 Camden 47 73 57 72 / 0 0 80 100 Crestview 45 73 57 73 / 0 0 70 100

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 PM CST Sunday for GMZ630>636-650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ670-675.