textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 - A HIGH RISK of rip currents is expected through Saturday for Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- An increasing risk of flash flooding is expected through Friday as periods of showers and storms affect the area.

- Moderate to strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from Wednesday night through Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

There is no shortage of impactful hazards to write about in this atypical mid-June pattern! We remain focused on the increasing flash flood threat through Friday afternoon as multiple rounds of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms capable of high rain rates douse the area, and increasing marine/surf/minor coastal flooding hazards starting tonight to tack on to the ongoing high risk of rip currents which has been extended through Saturday afternoon. There is the potential of strong to marginal severe storms on Thursday and possibly Friday in an environment capable of producing damaging winds and a 'mini-spinny' (brief tornado) or two. On top of that, apparent temperatures (heat indices) could reach as high as 105 degrees in spots Friday through the weekend, and likely higher through early next week.

Heavy Rainfall...

The Tuesday afternoon shift extended the Flash Flood Watch to now include all of our warning area through Friday afternoon. There is increasing confidence in periods of heavy rain as mid/upper level impulses and shortwaves traverse the region in a very soupy environment with PWATs fluctuating between 2.2 and 2.5 inches. The entire area remains under a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance today, with a Moderate Risk across nearly our entire area on Thursday, followed by a Slight Risk returning on Friday, and mere Marginal Risk on Saturday. For now we will keep with the same messaging as the Tuesday shift with widespread precipitation totals of 4-7 inches possible through Friday afternoon, with higher precipitation totals up to 10+ inches where banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms with high precipitation rates occur (up to 3-4 inches/hour). Nearly all of our zones should be impacted with a flooding threat, but the exact locations hit the hardest is still hard to pinpoint at this time. The scary part is that some of the latest high resolution models are now showing the potential of up to 15 inches of rain somewhere across the central portions of our warning area. We will monitor the trends as the latest runs come in.

Severe Weather Potential...

We will need to monitor for the potential for strong to severe storms on Thursday as upper-level diffluence spreads across the Deep South in response to the upper trough to our west. A strong series of shortwaves also move across the area with an 850 mb jet resulting in increasing bulk shear values up to 40 knots. In addition, MLCAPE values potentially reach as high as 2500J/kg, and and we expect around 200 m2/s2 of sfc-1km SRH to be present. This will set the stage for any storms within an eastward moving QLCS or any discrete activity ahead of this line to pose the potential for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. Currently the anticipated timing would be from mid-morning Thursday through the afternoon hours. High MLCAPE values will occur on Friday, so the potential for strong to severe storms should remain on that day.

High Surf and Coastal Flooding...

The stronger onshore winds starting tonight will lead to dangerous beach conditions. In addition to the High Risk of rip currents in place, a High Surf Advisory is now in effect for large breaking waves of 4 to 6 feet expected in the surf zone from midnight tonight until 6pm Friday. As far as coastal flooding, most guidance suggests our coastal sites should remain just below coastal flood advisory criteria, however as the previous shift mentioned, the timing of the tidal cycle combined with the stronger winds and high surf may promote overwash into some of our trouble spots such as Fort Pickens and Dauphin Island, possibly resulting in some localized minor inundation. P-ETSS guidance shows that water levels could approach 1.7 ft MHHW in parts of Mobile Bay around noon Wednesday and 2 ft MHHW around noon Thursday. We will hold off for now on a Coastal Flood Advisory until our confidence increases. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A mixed bag of conditions across the forecast area will continue across the area as an approaching upper level shortwave trough brings isentropic upglide flow over a stalled surface front over the area. Lower conditions are expected more often over the northern half of the forecast area. Add in periods of showers and thunderstorms, impacts to operations are to be expected. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots are expected south of the boundary, northwest to north north of the boundary. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Light to moderate southwesterly winds gradually trend to a moderate to strong southerly flow by Wednesday night. The onshore flow transitions to a light to moderate southwesterly flow on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the marine area from Wednesday evening through Thursday night. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 86 76 85 77 / 70 90 100 80 Pensacola 87 79 86 80 / 90 60 90 70 Destin 87 79 86 80 / 80 60 90 70 Evergreen 85 74 82 74 / 70 70 100 90 Waynesboro 85 73 83 74 / 70 80 100 80 Camden 84 73 80 72 / 70 60 100 90 Crestview 86 75 83 76 / 80 60 90 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ630>632-634-650-655-670-675.