textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- HIGH risk for rip currents through Monday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Strong marine winds are expected until mid afternoon today and create hazardous boating conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Cloud cover will continue to increase behind a westward moving inverted surface trough. Behind the passage of this trough, increased moisture advection and isentropic ascent should result in the development of an overcast deck based between 3-5kft. This will occur first near coastal areas over the next few hours and then spread inland very late tonight prior to sunrise Sunday. Cloudy skies should be the rule through at least early Sunday afternoon after which time there may be a few temporary breaks develop through mid to late afternoon with diurnal mixing before likely filling back in Sunday evening. The widespread cloud cover should help to limit high temperatures tomorrow and have undercut the latest NBM guidance by a few degrees. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s with brisk east to southeast winds making it feel quite cool overall. Moist southeasterly flow and a further increase in low level moisture and isentropic upglide should result in low stratus development again areawide Sunday night into Monday morning.

The increased southeasterly flow should help to increase the fetch and swell coming towards the coast which will provide favorable conditions for an increased rip current threat at the beaches. A High Risk for Rip Currents remains in effect through at least Monday afternoon.

Latest guidance keeps persistent southeasterly flow in place through at least mid week. Deep Gulf moisture will advect northward within return low level flow along the western periphery of a surface high pressure system centered over the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Despite this enhanced moisture and increased instability with daily diurnal heating, building mid and upper level heights should help to limit convection to scattered coverage at best, potentially focused along a developing sea breeze and within the broad zone of moisture advection over the area. This persistent pattern through Tuesday will also result in continued overnight through mid morning low level stratus each day. Temperatures should remain warm with a return to rather humid conditions with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 60s.

By mid week, ensemble cluster analysis is in fairly good agreement that an upper level trough will approach the forecast area. There remains some model spread with respect to how deep this trough becomes as there are differences with respect to the strength of mid/upper level ridging along the East Coast. At this point, it appears that the greatest ensemble support tilts towards the ENS solution which deamplifies the upper trough as anomalously strong ridging remains to the east in response to a deepening trough in the western states. In addition, despite differences in the trough intensity there is not much of a signal for much QPF with almost all of the ensemble guidance below 20-30% probabilities for greater than 0.25 inches, despite much higher probabilities (~70%) for greater than 0.10 inches. Currently pops are capped around 60% in the west to 40% east, which looks fine for this time period considering the overall pattern and trends.

Riding builds slightly from the east with the departure of the mid week trough, but the atmosphere should remain moist and unstable which should maintain at least scattered mainly diurnal convection through the end of the week. Medium range ensemble guidance continues to advertise the potential for a stronger upper trough with negative height anomalies advertised by the end of next weekend. There remains timing issues with the trough which is to be expected this far into the extended forecast period. We will continue to refine the forecast as we get closer in time and confidence increases. Warm weather will also persist through the extended forecast period with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 60s which remains above seasonal averages for this time of year. /JLH

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A VFR ceiling near 3.5-6 kft spreads westward across the area overnight with MVFR ceilings near 2.5 kft possible over interior areas. Similar VFR ceilings are expected through the day on Sunday, though MVFR ceilings near 2.5 kft are expected to be predominant near the coast generally from 14-23Z. Easterly winds overnight of 5-10 knots, occasionally a bit stronger near the coast, become southeasterly around 10 knots on Sunday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Moderate to strong easterly winds diminish somewhat this afternoon, then a light to moderate southeasterly flow is expected by Monday and continues into Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 3 pm this afternoon. A moderate southeasterly flow prevails on Thursday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 60 79 64 / 0 0 20 10 Pensacola 70 63 74 65 / 0 0 10 0 Destin 70 62 74 64 / 0 10 10 0 Evergreen 69 55 82 59 / 0 0 10 0 Waynesboro 73 56 81 62 / 0 0 20 0 Camden 70 55 80 59 / 10 0 10 0 Crestview 72 56 81 59 / 0 0 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ631- 632-650-655-670-675.