textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- A much drier airmass will continue filtering into the area, leading to an elevated fire danger risk through Tuesday.

- A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.

- Rain chances increase by late week and into the upcoming weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to an increased potential for flooding, is possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Scattered rainshowers continue to stream southeast across the northwestern quarter of the forecast area this morning, with thunderstorms developing well south of Dauphin Island. PoPs added for the convection over land earlier, but continue to monitor for any expansion. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Deep northerly to north-westerly flow aloft will persist through Tuesday between a mid/upper ridge west of the Mississippi River and a vertically-stacked low pressure system lifting northeastward along the Northeast U.S. coast. A dry airmass below 700mb will continue to filter into the region from the north, with afternoon dewpoints lowering to between 45-50 degrees across nearly our entire area, with the exception of the immediate coast where afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from 50-55 degrees. The risk for wildfires is the main concern as minimum relative humidity (RH) values this afternoon are expected to lower to around 23-28% away from the coast, with some lower humidity values possible across south-central Alabama. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday with the focus of afternoon RH values around 20-28% generally along and north of Highway-84. Some recovery is expected to the south with RH values mostly in the 30s. We still expect the sustained winds and wind gusts to remain around 10 mph or less, well below Red Flag Warning criteria. However, factoring in the dry antecedent conditions and Moderate to Severe Drought across much of the area, there exists an elevated fire danger risk through at least Monday night and possibly into Tuesday.

There are mid-level clouds to our northwest that will spread over our area through Monday, so we are expecting more cloud cover today compared to Sunday. This should help bring high temperatures down a degree or two compared to Sunday, but it will still remain quite warm with temperatures ranging from 85-90 degrees. Lows tonight will gain be cool with the dry airmass in place, again dropping in the middle to upper 50s inland and the lower to middle 60s over coastal counties and into southeast Mississippi. Highs on Tuesday will be a degree or two warmer compared to today as plenty of sunshine returns. A surface ridge will then set up across the southern Appalachians and the Southeast region, allowing for winds to slowly shift easterly on Tuesday (southeasterly along the coast) to southeasterly for all areas Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow low-level moisture to return into the forecast area with heat indices increasing into the middle to upper 90s by Thursday. Rain chances also start to increase Thursday, and especially into Friday and the upcoming weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west. Although we are still too far out to get into details, there are some indications that we could enter a rather active pattern which features several rounds of very heavy rainfall over multiple days, which could ultimately lead to an increased potential of flooding. We will continue monitoring trends over the coming days.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected to continue through Tuesday night. The rip current risk quickly increases to a High Risk by late Wednesday night as onshore flow increases. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

General VFR conditions noted across the forecast area, even in isolated rain showers moving southeast across the northeastern quarter of the forecast area. These should not affect area TAF sites this morning. General VFR conditions expected this afternoon into the overnight hours. Light winds less than 10 knots expected through the forecast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A light and diurnally variable flow expected over area waters the next few days. Winds will transition to a moderate to at times strong southeast to southerly as a surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf coast. Conditions will flirt with SC.Y levels the end of the week into the weekend. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 88 67 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 87 69 87 73 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 87 58 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 87 59 90 60 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 85 57 88 59 / 20 0 0 0 Crestview 88 59 90 65 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.