textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 - There is the potential for isolated severe storms with localized strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall today through Thursday, with the best chance occurring on Wednesday.

- A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues across the Alabama and northwest Florida Gulf beaches through today.

- Summertime heat will return over the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A couple more days of active weather before the heat kicks back in by the weekend. Northwesterly flow aloft remains in place as upper level ridging remains firmly planted across west Texas and into northern Mexico. A weak boundary has slowly shifted south across the area this evening as convective outflow from earlier storms has helped push it just offshore. This boundary will likely erode throughout the overnight hours. A couple subtle shortwaves are expected to move through the flow over the next two days and with each wave will come a round of storms. Storms will likely be focused along a northwest to southeast oriented area of convergence in the low levels starting around southeastern Oklahoma and dives across our area from southeastern Mississippi into the Florida Panhandle. The strongest shortwave appears to move through this afternoon and into the early evening. While deep layer shear is rather weak at this time there does appear to be a slight uptick in 0-3km shear to around 20 to 25 knots. This would likely be enough to support some multicellular clusters and potentially a little more robust outflow driven system or cluster of storms. These would likely begin to our west and move into our area before weakening as outflow would likely outpace the better instability and nocturnal stabilization begins. Given dry northwesterly flow leading to some drier air aloft as noted by the 00z LIX sounding, rather impressive instability will be expected once again during the afternoon with steep mid- level lapse rates. Given the potential for multicellular clusters and stronger cold pools assisted by modest low level shear some strong to severe wind gusts could be possible. A couple severe hail reports earlier on in the afternoon as storms begin also cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall will also continue to be an issue given recent rains and rather moist profiles as PWATS climb to near two inches. Storms will likely continue on early Thursday morning and then a third round Thursday afternoon with the potential of another round of strong to severe storms. Storms would have similar issues with locally strong wind gusts and potentially a severe hailstone or two during the afternoon on Thursday; however, overall shear and instability is a tick weaker leading to less organized convection and potentially a more pulse thunderstorm environment overall. At this time the best severe risk looks to be Wednesday afternoon mainly west of I-65 and we would not be shocked to see the marginal risk for severe storms to expand south and east with later updates.

By the end of the week upper ridging will quickly begin to build over the southeastern US as storm chances decrease and temperatures begin to rise. After a couple weeks of rainfall and storms, true northern Gulf summer will be upon us as heat indices look to climb back towards the triple digits and highs climb into the mid 90s. We will need to keep an eye on the heat products by the start of next week as conditions may begin to flirt with advisory criteria by Monday. Nonetheless, things look to get toasty with the upcoming high pressure settling in and a wholesale pattern change. BB-8

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light northerly winds shift to prevail west to southwesterly by early afternoon and last through the rest of the period. Inland counties of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama have some higher probabilities of MVFR cigs for a few hours early this morning. Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon into the evening accompanied by drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within the strongest storms. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A light northeasterly flow will occur through mid-morning behind a weak front moving over the coastal waters. This front will then dissipate resulting in variable winds through late afternoon, followed by winds shifting back to an offshore flow this evening as a thunderstorm complex moves offshore. A light westerly flow will develop after midnight tonight into Thursday, shifting southwesterly Thursday night through the remainder of the week as high pressure becomes reestablished across the southwest Atlantic into the central Gulf. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 72 89 74 / 60 30 60 20 Pensacola 91 75 88 77 / 40 30 50 20 Destin 90 75 87 78 / 10 30 40 20 Evergreen 91 69 88 71 / 30 50 40 10 Waynesboro 90 70 89 72 / 60 40 50 10 Camden 87 69 87 71 / 30 50 30 10 Crestview 93 70 89 72 / 30 40 60 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.