textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the 108 to 112 range.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Another day of oppressive heat and humidity is expected today, followed by another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. The area remains positioned within a weakness in the mid-level ridge, with strong ridging centered over the Four Corners and broad troughing to the north. On the backside of the trough, somewhat stronger northwest flow will begin to overspread the region today, while a 700 mb shortwave impulse over the Tennessee Valley provides additional lift along the leading edge of some drier mid- level air. Moisture ahead of this feature remains high with PWATs around 2-2.2 inches across the area. Extremely unstable thermodynamic profiles featuring SBCAPE over 4000 J/kg, very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg will once again support explosive updrafts and intense downbursts capable of producing damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Briefly intense rainfall and excessive cloud-to-ground lightning is also likely with the stronger storms.

The mid-level disturbance combined with 20-30 knots of 0-6 km shear could allow for somewhat more organized and widespread convection today compared to previous days. Initial development is expected over interior southern Alabama and southeast Mississippi before dropping southeastward toward the coast during the 2PM-8PM timeframe. Greatest coverage (50-60% PoPs) appears focused along and north of I-10, with the greatest severe potential likely lining up where outflows collide with the sea breeze boundary late in the day. Faster storm motions should help limit the overall flash flood threat, though brief intense rainfall will remain likely with any storms. Prior to convection, heat indices are expected to reach 108- 111 degrees once again, with a Heat Advisory in effect area-wide.

For the weekend, some drier air aloft will filter into the region from the north, resulting in lower rain chances (10-20% PoPs at best) and a bit less humidity. Despite lower coverage, any storms that develop could still produce strong downburst winds. High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s, while somewhat lower humidity should keep heat indices in the 100-107 range. Heat Advisory levels cannot be ruled out near the coast, particularly Saturday where moisture will remain higher.

Looking into next week, guidance continues to hint at a somewhat active northwest flow pattern developing, with persistent troughing over the Great Lakes and several shortwave impulses dropping southward along its western periphery into the northern Gulf Coast states. This pattern could support a few active days of strong thunderstorms across the region. Regardless of the exact evolution of individual disturbances, rain chances should gradually increase through midweek as moisture increases. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s and heat indices most likely in the 100-107 range. JGC/98

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions will mostly prevail this afternoon, and after a line of convection passes through the region late this afternoon until late evening. We are expecting numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop north of Highway-84 by late afternoon and move southward to the coast through this evening. Added a PROB30 group to the KMOB/KBFM/KPNS/KJKA sites for the early- to mid- evening hours for IFR visibilities (could briefly become VLIFR), MVFR ceilings and gusty northerly winds to 35 knots. /22

MARINE

Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 95 74 95 74 / 50 30 10 0 Pensacola 92 78 93 78 / 30 20 20 0 Destin 90 79 91 79 / 20 40 20 10 Evergreen 96 71 97 71 / 60 40 10 0 Waynesboro 98 72 99 73 / 60 30 0 0 Camden 95 72 97 72 / 60 20 0 0 Crestview 95 73 96 72 / 40 30 20 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...None.