textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. Hazards will include intense rain rates leading to localized flooding and brief gusty winds. For marine areas, waterspouts and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible this weekend.

- Heat and humidity will continue through next week. Peak heat indices will range from around 95-100 this weekend, increasing to around 103-110 by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Starting out with late tonight, well, focus is pretty obvious looking at the KMOB radar loop at a distinct surface low spinning across offshore marine areas. NHC highlights this area with a 0% chance of tropical development over the next 2 days, 10% over the next 7 days. Looking at proximity model soundings overnight tonight for KMOB highlights many key features harming any concerning development with this low, namely, very dry mid-level air. RAP H5 RH shows this strong dry air intrusion well on the eastern periphery of the 594dm ridge parked across the western US, pulling south into the northern Gulf. Additionally, increasing 850-200mb shear will continue to take it's toll on any vertical stacking aloft likely keeping this as a weak surface low. Having said that, we'll see this low provide a few hazards to monitor this morning throughout the day. Starting with the marine areas, ample marine instability and surface vorticity supplied by the low itself will be enough to provide enhanced shower/storm coverage. Weak 0-1km bulk shear, enhanced low-level RH, low LCL's, suitable 0-3km lapse rates and focused vorticity along any outflow boundary interactions will support another notable waterspout risk this morning. Enhanced sfc vorticity from the low could also provide a few stronger waterspouts, similar to what we saw Friday morning. Otherwise, we'll continue to see squalls/bands of showers/storms sweeping across the coast and marine areas throughout the morning and through the day. Meanwhile for land areas, as we remain parked underneath general weakness aloft meaning no real synoptic-scale suppression at play, combined with diurnal heating/destabilization, meaning we'll see a few shower/storms pop through the afternoon/evening. However, best coverage and lifting mechanism will come from boundaries sweeping from east to west providing best lift to perhaps form some brief squalls of showers and storms, moreso confined closer to the coast.

Going into Saturday night/Sunday morning - will need to keep an eye on coastal areas, as this low drifts west and will enhance differential friction convergence, or where winds are more southeasterly (stronger/frictionless) over water to more easterly (weaker/greater friction) over land. This could provide a targeted zone of training showers/storms overnight leading to areas of flash flooding. While confidence is rather low at this time (mainly on placement), and highly depends on many smaller-scale/mesoscale ingredients to align just right, will keep a close eye on it. Wouldn't be surprised we are greeted with a long period of training thunderstorms near or across coastal areas overnight Sat night into Sunday - something to monitor.

Going into next week, the ridge out west drifts east with time, parking over the mid MS valley region helping to enhance easterly flow aloft. Our location south of the ridge, away from greater mid-level suppression will promote daily scattered shower/storm chances along developing seabreeze boundaries. Will keep an eye on any easterly impulses moving across the Bahamas into the Gulf, as some long-range models try to re-ignite what was once Dolly as it gets into a slightly more favorable Gulf environment. Something we'll continue to monitor.

Additionally, temperatures do warm up going into next week with highs back in the mid 90's. Max heat indices are looking like they will climb back in the 103-110 degree range. However, confidence on the higher end is lower, as forecast long-range NBM dewpoints are typically overinflated by not capturing a more realistic daily PBL mixing regime. Regardless, could reach at least at or near Heat Advisory criteria a few days. Will keep an eye on it. KLG

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at issuance time. In general, this should remain prevalent over the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog may attempt to develop over interior portions of south central Alabama during the overnight hours, temporarily bringing reductions in visibility to IFR of lower. Any fog that does manage to develop should dissipate a little after sunrise. Another round of scattered showers and storms are expected to develop today, mainly over coastal counties during the afternoon. Expect brief reductions in visibilites and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Light and variable winds should become a light northeasterly flow by the mid morning hours. Winds should turn more easterly to southeasterly by the afternoon, increasing to around 10-15 knots along the coast. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Main focus across marine areas will be a weak surface low generally stationed well offshore in the 20-60nm zones, providing enhanced shower and storm coverage this morning through tonight through the day on Saturday. Main risks will be locally gusty winds in any squalls, likely reaching 34kts at times and waterspouts. Activity will persist through the day and into the day on Sunday, with moderate (10-15kt) easterly flow outside of any thunderstorm activity. This weak low likely drifts west with time, establishing a greater southeasterly/onshore flow regime remaining light to moderate at 10-15kts. Waves/seas respond slightly in the 2-3ft range but lack of distinct long-duration fetch will limit any enhanced wave activity, but will be elevated/enhanced in any locally strong or severe storms. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 89 72 88 73 / 30 50 70 20 Pensacola 87 75 87 76 / 40 70 60 40 Destin 85 75 88 77 / 60 60 70 30 Evergreen 91 69 90 68 / 30 20 40 10 Waynesboro 94 71 91 70 / 20 10 50 10 Camden 91 71 90 71 / 40 20 20 10 Crestview 88 70 90 70 / 40 30 60 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.