textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 730 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the 108 to 112 range.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Minor update to increase rain chances this morning across inland areas. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. /13

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Another day of oppressive heat and humidity is expected today, followed by another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. The area remains positioned within a weakness in the mid-level ridge, with strong ridging centered over the Four Corners and broad troughing to the north. On the backside of the trough, somewhat stronger northwest flow will begin to overspread the region today, while a 700 mb shortwave impulse over the Tennessee Valley provides additional lift along the leading edge of some drier mid- level air. Moisture ahead of this feature remains high with PWATs around 2-2.2 inches across the area. Extremely unstable thermodynamic profiles featuring SBCAPE over 4000 J/kg, very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg will once again support explosive updrafts and intense downbursts capable of producing damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Briefly intense rainfall and excessive cloud-to-ground lightning is also likely with the stronger storms.

The mid-level disturbance combined with 20-30 knots of 0-6 km shear could allow for somewhat more organized and widespread convection today compared to previous days. Initial development is expected over interior southern Alabama and southeast Mississippi before dropping southeastward toward the coast during the 2PM-8PM timeframe. Greatest coverage (50-60% PoPs) appears focused along and north of I-10, with the greatest severe potential likely lining up where outflows collide with the sea breeze boundary late in the day. Faster storm motions should help limit the overall flash flood threat, though brief intense rainfall will remain likely with any storms. Prior to convection, heat indices are expected to reach 108- 111 degrees once again, with a Heat Advisory in effect area-wide.

For the weekend, some drier air aloft will filter into the region from the north, resulting in lower rain chances (10-20% PoPs at best) and a bit less humidity. Despite lower coverage, any storms that develop could still produce strong downburst winds. High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s, while somewhat lower humidity should keep heat indices in the 100-107 range. Heat Advisory levels cannot be ruled out near the coast, particularly Saturday where moisture will remain higher.

Looking into next week, guidance continues to hint at a somewhat active northwest flow pattern developing, with persistent troughing over the Great Lakes and several shortwave impulses dropping southward along its western periphery into the northern Gulf Coast states. This pattern could support a few active days of strong thunderstorms across the region. Regardless of the exact evolution of individual disturbances, rain chances should gradually increase through midweek as moisture increases. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s and heat indices most likely in the 100-107 range. JGC/98

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 730 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms that will develop again this afternoon. Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13

MARINE

Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 95 74 96 74 / 50 40 20 0 Pensacola 92 77 94 77 / 40 30 20 0 Destin 90 78 92 80 / 20 30 20 0 Evergreen 96 71 97 70 / 60 30 10 0 Waynesboro 97 72 99 71 / 50 20 10 10 Camden 95 72 96 71 / 40 20 0 0 Crestview 94 72 96 71 / 50 40 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.