textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1122 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Dense fog will reduce visibilities across the area each night through the weekend. Dense marine fog will also persist through the remainder of the week.

- Well above average temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend. A strong cold front brings an end to this warmth beginning Sunday night, with a Cold Weather Advisory potentially being needed for Monday and Tuesday nights.

- Strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Now through Thursday...

An upper level trough stretching north over the Southeast hangs tough into the weekend, then begins to shift south as a an upper level shortwave trough moves around the base of an closed upper low over the Great Lakes. A cold front moves south over the Southeast Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of the frontal passage, south to southwesterly low level flow in the upper 60s to low 70s off the Gulf over coastal waters in the upper 50s to low 60s will allow for sea fog development each night, moving inland as the night progresses. There is some variation on how far and how fast, depending upon boundary layer winds and for more inland areas, clear skies and light, but not calm winds. At this point, feel there will be Dense Fog Advisories for the southern half of the forecast area each night into the weekend. The passing cold front Monday will usher in a colder and drier airmass, with a significant temperature drop and the possiblity of a Cold Weather Advisory being needed for the beginning of the coming week. Instability will be limited with the passing front, along with limited upper support, so am not expecting any rowdy storms Monday at this time.

Looking closer to temperatures, mid to upper 70s are expected through Sunday. Behind the front, high temperatures drop into the mid 40s to around 50 for Tuesday. From there, they slowly warm into the mid to upper 50s by Thursday. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60 are expected Friday and Saturday nights, then drop into mid 20s north of Highway 84 to low to mid 30s along and south of I- 10 Monday and Tuesday nights. From there, low temperatures climb into the upper 20s along the northern border of the forecast area to mid/upper 30s south of I-10 Wednesday night.

A light onshore flow will limit the Rip Risk to Low through the weekend. Ahead of the coming front, an increase in winds ahead of the front may bring a Moderate Risk for Monday. Behind the front, the strong offshore flow will drop the Rip Risk back to Low into mid week. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

VFR conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight as dense fog develops. IFR or lower VISBYs are expected. Best chance is expected closer to the coast and coastal bays. The fog will begin to mix out soon after sunrise, mainly inland, with VISBYs at upper MVFR/VFR levels by 18z over most of the forecast area. Greater persistence is possible closer to the coast and area protected waters. Winds are expected to become light overnight, with a light onshore near area bays and near coastal areas. Winds will become a general southerly 5 to 10 knots by 18z. Conditions will deteriorate again Friday night as developing sea fog begins to move inland. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1122 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Light onshore flow over cool waters will create dense sea fog over protected and near shore open Gulf waters each night, possibly persisting well into mid day each day. A cold front passing over area waters Monday will bring s strong offshore flow, with a Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed later Monday into mid week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 56 74 60 77 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 58 72 62 74 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 58 71 62 72 / 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 53 74 58 77 / 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 55 75 59 76 / 0 0 10 10 Camden 54 73 58 75 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 51 74 58 77 / 0 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ630>636-650-655.