textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potentially resulting in localized flash flooding remain possible today through Monday.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will occur today through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 950 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

An active pattern persists over the next few days across the region with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday. Throughout the period, storms may be strong to severe, along with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. More details on this can be found below.

For the rest of today, we can expect scattered showers and storms to begin developing and moving across the forecast area from west to east by late morning into early afternoon. We are already seeing strong to severe storms developing across Louisiana that will likely continue progressing eastward into our southeast Mississippi counties between 11am and 2pm before progressing into our Alabama and Florida Panhandle counties this afternoon into early evening. Most of these storms will be elevated as a warm front remains well south offshore, however the presence of 1,000j/kg of MUCAPE and deep layer shear approaching 60 knots will support elevated supercells rooted around the 1km AGL layer with a large to hail threat. Some of these storms could produce hail over two inches in diameter in the most robust supercells. Additionally, there will be the potential for storms to train over the same areas, with a focus more towards the coastal counties and far southeastern Mississippi counties. This may promote the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, particularly in our urban areas that are more susceptible to flooding. The expectation is for storms to push out of the area by late afternoon into early evening, with the atmosphere reseting for the next round late into the overnight and morning hours Saturday.

As we head into late tonight and Saturday, another shortwave will progress across the area. The expectation is for the warm front offshore to begin lifting northward onshore. Model guidance is beginning to become enthused about an MCS tracking into the area from the northwest prior to daybreak, eventually pushing offshore by mid to late morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be present along with ample CAPE and shear allowing for robust updrafts to develop within the MCS. The biggest question is when does this complex enter better instability and interact with the warm front. Initially storms may be somewhat elevated as they move into our interior southeast Mississippi into southwest Alabama counties, but as the warm front lifts north and surface heating begins by daybreak we will likely see storms become surface based and shift from a large hail and strong wind threat to an all hazards threat south of the Highway 84 corridor to the coast. This complex should shift offshore by late morning, and at the moment there is no anticipation for renewed development during the afternoon as the atmosphere will be worked over. Models have overall struggled with depicting a consistent evolution of the associated shortwaves with each round of storms, but there is a better consensus towards this morning complex with recent iterations of the CAM guidance.

Confidence on timing and intensity of subsequent storms Sunday are a bit more uncertain as CAM guidance begins to diverge on the evolution of everything but the expectation is for adequate shear and instability to still be in place to support at least a low end threat for strong to severe storms. Very steep mid-level lapse rates near or over 7.5C/km overspread the area creating a favorable environment for robust updrafts in any storms that develop. Primary hazards with storms Sunday presently look to be damaging winds and large hail.

Monday we will see the main cold front progressing into the area with another potent shortwave moving through. Once again, the shear and cape environment are more than adequate for strong to severe thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. There remains variance on how quickly everything moves through, but as of right now timing appears to be early morning into the afternoon hours for the best coverage of storms.

The next few days will feature numerous rounds of showers and storms, and with that the potential for flash flooding. HREF ensemble LPMM indicates the potential for widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain over the next 36 to 48 hours, with a focused corridor of up to 4 inches or greater across our southeast Mississippi into southwestern Alabama counties through Saturday evening. The potential exists for locally higher totals, which could be problematic particularly for our urban areas. Additional heavy rainfall will be possible across the forecast area after this period through Monday, however confidence on location and totals is a bit more uncertain. Despite this, the focus will continue to be on urban areas that see training storms and any interior areas that see significant training of very heavy thunderstorms each day.

The forecast dries out Tuesday into late week with no impactful weather anticipated at this time and seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures expected for that period. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Primarily MVFR ceilings (cigs) should remain in place through early this evening. There could be temporary IFR reductions in visibilities (vsbys) with any storms that move across the TAF sites. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are ongoing and continue to the north of a stationary 850mb warm front extending just north of the I-10 corridor. To the south and including all of the main TAF sites, the greatest potential for storms should be later this afternoon beginning around 20-21z and continuing into the early evening as large scale ascent and diffluent upper flow is maintained within the right entrance region of a jet streak over the Southeastern states.

Cigs are expected to lower to IFR after rain and storms diminish by mid evening. There will likely be another round of storms late tonight into Saturday morning but positioning of where these storms initiated and impact is still somewhat in question. We will refine these details with the evening TAF forecast release. /JLH

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly flow will prevail through this afternoon. Winds turn onshore tonight and will continue through the weekend. Offshore winds return on Monday and will increase to a moderate to occasionally strong flow by Monday night in the wake of a cold front. A brief Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for our local Gulf waters Monday night. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 67 80 68 83 / 70 90 50 60 Pensacola 70 80 70 81 / 60 90 60 70 Destin 70 79 70 80 / 40 80 60 70 Evergreen 60 79 63 83 / 80 90 50 60 Waynesboro 62 78 64 83 / 60 70 50 60 Camden 60 77 62 81 / 70 80 40 50 Crestview 64 81 65 84 / 70 90 60 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.