textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 202 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 - Hot conditions expected through Wednesday of next week. Heat advisories remain in effect on Friday for heat indices up to 112. Future heat advisories will likely be necessary through Wednesday of next week.

- Low risk of rip currents continues through the weekend with a Moderate risk returning for Florida Panhandle beaches early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

A large upper ridge centered over the region and stretching to across the northern Plains gradually becomes oriented across much of the southern CONUS over the weekend. A series of modest shortwaves rotating through the upper level pattern allow for a minor weakness in the upper ridge to develop mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area on Friday and become more centered over the area on Saturday. This allows for somewhat more convection to develop each afternoon, and have gone with slight chance to chance pops on Friday along and east of I-65, then including a bit more of the area on Saturday. The upper level weakness looks to mostly dissipate by Sunday but sufficient to allow for slight chance to chance pops over the southern half of the area. The upper ridge slowly narrows over the region and becomes oriented mainly along the northern Gulf coast Monday then weakens Tuesday along with some shortwaves starting to move across the area. Monday looks mostly dry except for isolated convection developing mainly near the coast in the afternoon, then slight chance to chance pops return to the entire area by Tuesday with similar rain chances following for Wednesday.

Hot conditions are expected Friday on through Wednesday with afternoon highs reaching mostly 95 to 100, potentially a bit hotter Sunday and Monday where some locations mostly over southeast Mississippi may see highs reach 102. Heat index values of mostly 108-112 are expected on Friday, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area from 11 am until 8 pm. Similar heat index values are anticipated each day on through Wednesday, with additional Heat Advisories likely becoming necessary. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Monday, except for a moderate risk of rip currents for the western Florida panhandle on Monday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected overnight over most of the forecast area. Some guidance is advertising isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms developing over and south of the coast towards sunrise. Local drops to MVFR levels are possible in this convection. Another round of convection is expected southeast of I-65 in the late morning and afternoon hours. Isolated to scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms may being local drops in conditions to low end MVFR levels. Light southwesterly winds will shift to southerly 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon as a seabreeze develops and moves inland. /16

MARINE

Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow pattern persists across the marine waters through this weekend, with light to moderate westerly flow becoming established early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 97 76 97 / 0 20 10 30 Pensacola 79 95 79 95 / 0 30 10 30 Destin 81 93 81 93 / 10 30 10 20 Evergreen 75 98 74 98 / 20 40 10 20 Waynesboro 75 101 74 101 / 0 10 10 10 Camden 76 96 74 98 / 10 20 0 10 Crestview 76 97 75 97 / 10 50 10 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.