textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
- Abnormally hot conditions continue with another Heat Advisory in effect for all locations Thursday as afternoon heat indices rise into the 108 to 112 range. Additional heat advisories will likely be needed through the rest of the week.
- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall and locally strong to damaging wind gusts.
- There is a Moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches in Florida through Thursday night.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Thursday into Friday will likely feature much of the same as we have had these past few days. Scattered to locally numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms can once again be expected after reaching oppressive afternoon highs and heat indices across the area. Heat advisories continue for the whole area with expected heat indices rising to near 112 Thursday. We'll likely see similar values for Friday and additional heat advisories will likely be needed. Afternoon storms will continue to be breezy with localized damaging wind gusts associated with wet microbursts continuing to be possible through Friday.
As we get into the weekend, we finally see a budge in the pattern as upper troughing moves across the area and a weak front tries to push in from the northwest. At a minimum, this will help to reduce afternoon dewpoints Saturday into Sunday and may finally give us a reprieve from the heat advisory criteria heat indices. Despite this, it will remain hot as highs stay in the middle to upper 90's and heat indices remain in the 100 to 108 range. Saturday and Sunday will feature at best isolated coverage for storms given the drier air in place, but any storm that can manage to form may produce gusty winds.
As we head into next week upper ridging starts to work its way back into the area and the atmospheric profile begins moistening up again, allowing for more typical afternoon showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized damaging wind gusts. Afternoon highs will generally stay in the middle 90's with heat indices remaining in that 100 to 108 range. The rip current risk will remain Moderate for Florida Panhandle beaches Thursday into Thursday night, diminishing to a low risk Friday through the weekend for all beaches. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Scattered showers and storms will develop each afternoon with brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions in and around showers and storms. /13
MARINE
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 95 75 95 74 / 40 10 60 20 Pensacola 93 78 93 77 / 30 10 50 30 Destin 92 79 91 79 / 20 10 50 40 Evergreen 98 72 96 70 / 50 40 60 30 Waynesboro 99 73 98 70 / 40 20 50 20 Camden 97 73 95 72 / 30 30 40 30 Crestview 97 73 95 73 / 40 20 60 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...None.
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