textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1131 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Temperatures will turn much colder on Monday, with below seasonal temps through Wednesday. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed on Monday night, as wind chills fall into the teens to lower 20s.

- Strong winds over the marine area will create hazardous conditions for small craft Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Now through Saturday...

An upper level trough stretching north over the eastern Conus shifts south as an upper level shortwave trough moves around the base of an closed upper low over the Great Lakes. A strong cold front moves south over the Southeast Sunday night into Monday in response. Timing of this front's passage has come into better agreement in the guidance, with the front beginning to cross the forecast area at 06z/midnight and moving south of area coastal water by 18z/noontime. Ahead of the frontal passage, south to southwesterly low level flow in the upper 60s to low 70s off the Gulf over coastal waters in the upper 50s to low 60s will allow for some fog and stratus development tonight, with fog development more likely over the eastern border of our Florida counties, and stratus west due to higher winds. The passing cold front Monday will usher in a colder and drier airmass, with a significant temperature drop and a Cold Weather Advisory being needed for Monday night and maybe Tuesday nights. Instability will be limited with the passing front, along with limited upper support, so am not expecting any rowdy storms Monday at this time. As the forecast gets into the latter half of the week, surface high pressure has passed over the forecast area and east, with onshore flow returning to the Southeast by Friday. An upper level shortwave trough moves over the Southeast Saturday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Guidance is inconsistent in any rowdy storms at this time, so will need to monitor.

Looking closer to temperatures, high temperatures Monday are expected to range from low 50s over northwestern portions of the forecast area to upper 60s well southeast of I-65. High temperatures drop into the mid 40s to around 50 for Tuesday. From there, they slowly warm into the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday. Low temperatures in the mid 20s north of Highway 84 to low 30s along and south of I-10 Monday and Tuesday nights, with wind chills Monday night in the 15 to low 20s. From there, low temperatures climb into the 50s forecast area wide by Friday night.

A light onshore flow will limit the Rip Risk to Low through the weekend. Ahead of the coming front, an increase in winds ahead of the front may bring a Moderate Risk for Monday. Behind the front, the strong offshore flow will drop the Rip Risk back to Low into mid week. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Light south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots will precede a strong cold front expected to begin crossing the forecast area shortly after 06z and move south of the coast by 14z. If the winds decrease to around 5 knots or less, decreased VISBYs to IFR levels due to fog formation is possible. Behind the front, low end MVFR or lower CIGS are possible as the cold surge creates rises in the low levels. By 18z, any of this stratus should be south of the forecast area. The strong northwesterly winds behind the front may also create strong low level wind shear at area airports. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Light onshore flow will precede a cold front passing over area waters Monday, with a strong offshore flow following. Winds will ease and become more variable through mid week as surface high pressure passes over the area. Onshore flow returns by the weekend. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 48 59 30 50 / 70 10 0 0 Pensacola 53 66 32 50 / 60 30 0 0 Destin 54 67 33 50 / 30 50 0 0 Evergreen 45 56 26 47 / 70 20 0 0 Waynesboro 42 50 27 47 / 90 10 0 0 Camden 42 51 25 44 / 80 10 0 0 Crestview 51 65 27 50 / 50 30 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to 9 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to 9 AM CST Tuesday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.