textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Strong to Severe storms with large hail possible this afternoon and another round of severe storms possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

- Patchy dense fog is possible overnight into the pre-dawn hours over the next several nights.

- Near Gale force sustained winds and frequent gale force gusts possible over the open Gulf Waters Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Two periods of potentially impactful weather are expected through the remainder of the week. The first instance will occur from the mid-afternoon today into early evening, with the potential of strong to severe storms with large hail and gusty winds, mainly across the northern portions of our forecast area. The second instance will occur Wednesday and Thursday, with increasing beach and marine hazards and the potential for strong to severe storms Wednesday night into Thursday, though the details of the severe impacts remains highly uncertain at this time.

Synopsis...The overall synoptic patterns between the models are in good agreement going into midweek as an upper trough over the southern Plains and northern Mexico around noon Wednesday moves eastward over the lower Mississippi River region late Wednesday night into Thursday. A light southerly flow continues through Wednesday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the northwest. Gusty northerly winds are possible in the wake of the front on Thursday, followed by dry weather conditions through the remainder of the week as surface high pressure builds across the region. This front will also usher in a much cooler and drier airmass highs in the middle to upper 60s inland to near 70 along the coast on Thursday, followed by temperatures falling into the lower 40s inland to upper 40s along the coast Thursday night. Temperatures then quickly warm back into the upper 70s and low 80s by the weekend.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through Tuesday night, briefly becoming MODERATE and then HIGH Wednesday through Thursday. A LOW risk of rip currents will follow through the remainder of the week. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

General VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms bringing local drops to low end MVFR/IFR levels. The greatest coverage is expected to be over the northern half of the forecast area and north. Timing is expected to be late afternoon into the evening. After midnight, fog development is expected after midnight tonight. Area TAF sites will likely be affected after 08z, with the fog quickly mixing out after sunrise Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to be southerly less than 10 knots through the forecast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Small Craft conditions are likely late Wednesday night into Thursday night and gale conditions are possible as winds turn northerly in the wake of a strong cold front. Until then, a light southerly flow continues through Wednesday afternoon, followed by a moderate southwesterly flow Wednesday evening ahead of the front. Periods of dense fog remain possible near the coastline for the next several nights. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 83 66 81 / 10 0 0 20 Pensacola 67 78 67 78 / 10 0 0 10 Destin 65 75 66 76 / 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 63 85 62 85 / 20 10 0 10 Waynesboro 65 84 66 84 / 20 10 0 30 Camden 64 84 64 84 / 20 10 0 10 Crestview 63 83 62 83 / 10 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.