textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 648 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 - Isolated to scattered storms are expected through the weekend.

- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected through mid next week.

- A Low risk of rip currents develops is expected through Wednesday at area beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The forecast remains on track as we still expect scattered afternoon showers and storms to develop that will linger into early evening, with high temperatures ranging from 90-95 degrees. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Through Tuesday night, an upper ridge centered off the East Coast shifts west over the northern Gulf Coast, with a surface ridge shifting west over the central Gulf. Guidance is advertising moisture levels over the forecast area rising into the 2.1"-2.3" range, though vary on rainfall today, with varying subsidence from the shifting upper ridge. Did go a bit above seasonal norms for PoPs today, with scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. PoPs will see a downward trend into Tuesday, with moisture levels decreasing over the area combining with increasing upper subsidence from the upper ridge as it moves over the northern Gulf Coast. Temperatures remain a bit above seasonal norms over the forecast area, ranging from around 90 along the coast to around 95 inland. Daytime heat indices generally in the 100-107 range are expected, though local values near 110 are possible Tuesday. Low temperature remain at above seasonal norms through Tuesday night, with low to mid 70s inland, upper 70s along the coast.

Wednesday on, the upper ridge over the northern Gulf coast shifts north to over the Southeast. Increasing subsidence will bring increasing temperatures (mid to upper 90s by Friday), with accompanying heat indices rising to advisory levels for the latter half of the coming week. PoPs decrease with the increasing upper subsidence, with general isolated PoPs by the end of the week.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected into mid week, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to a low Moderate is indicated the end of the week, especially over our Florida beaches. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, with showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. MVFR ceilings, brief IFR visibilities, and gusty winds to 40 knots are expected in the stronger storms. Winds for all TAF sites will start off light northerly to northeasterly, shifting easterly by late morning, and then southerly at 5-10 knots by mid-afternoon as a sea-breeze pushes inland. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

An area of high pressure will build westward across the northern Gulf through next week. A light to occasionally moderate southerly flow develops on Sunday and becomes southwest by the middle of next week as the area of high pressure builds west. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 74 91 74 / 50 20 50 0 Pensacola 90 78 90 78 / 30 20 30 0 Destin 89 79 89 79 / 20 10 20 0 Evergreen 93 72 92 73 / 50 10 50 0 Waynesboro 95 73 94 72 / 40 20 40 0 Camden 92 73 91 73 / 50 20 30 10 Crestview 92 73 92 73 / 50 10 40 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.