textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1036 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Strong storms are possible this afternoon with strong, locally damaging microburst winds being the main threat.

- Moderate risk of rip currents on Tuesday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Peak heat index increases to around 105-107 tomorrow with the Heat Risk rising into the Moderate to Major category.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Hot and stormy weather conditions are once again expected this afternoon across the region. Afternoon temperatures soar into the middle to upper 90's, hottest over interior areas west of the I-65 corridor. Most of the area should see afternoon dewpoints mix out into the upper 60's to lower 70's inland, helping to temper heat indices in the 100 to 107 range, with isolated spots nearing or exceeding 108. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will likely develop during the afternoon hours, especially for areas south of the Highway 84 corridor. Dry air aloft will help bolster thunderstorm downdrafts, with any storms capable of producing strong, gusty winds. The lack of wind shear across the area should keep the strong to severe storm threat limited. The deepest cores and storm mergers will have the greatest propensity for producing strong, locally damaging microbursts.

Upper ridging gradually spreads eastward across the region with deep layer easterly flow becoming established Tuesday into Wednesday. After this, ridging breaks down into late week as upper troughing becomes established across the eastern CONUS. This should keep us with a somewhat active pattern as subtle shortwaves continue to ride the periphery of the ridge and upper troughing gradually becomes more dominant. The expectation is for scattered to locally numerous showers and storms each afternoon, with daily highs in the lower to middle 90's. Similar to early in the period, any storms may be able to produce gusty to locally damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Overnight temperatures stay steady state in the lower to middle 70's.

The rip current risk remains Low for Florida/Alabama beaches throughout the period with the exception of Tuesday where a Moderate risk is now forecast. This is thanks to stronger easterly flow that becomes established across the area the first half of the day Tuesday. MM/25

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The cluster of storms over south central AL is weakening and is no longer expected to reach the coast tonight. A greater confidence threat (30-60% chance) for showers and storms exists Monday afternoon, especially for the coastal counties. A few of the storms may create brief drops in visibilities to IFR or lower along with gusty winds. Light and variable winds tonight will become light northerly to easterly in the morning, turning generally southerly across southern counties during the afternoon at around 5-10 knots. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A generally light southwest to west flow prevails today. Light to moderate easterly flow becomes established Tuesday and Wednesday. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow returns for the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend. Seas generally remain around 1 to 2 feet this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible during the morning hours each day with the potential to produce gusty winds and waterspouts. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 93 74 94 74 / 20 20 50 30 Pensacola 91 77 91 76 / 30 20 40 50 Destin 89 78 89 76 / 20 20 40 60 Evergreen 96 72 96 71 / 20 40 40 40 Waynesboro 98 73 98 72 / 20 20 30 30 Camden 97 73 97 72 / 10 30 20 40 Crestview 93 73 94 72 / 30 30 50 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.