textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Severe storms are possible through this evening mainly across inland areas. Heavy rainfall in storms may lead to additional flash flooding.

- Heat Risk Concerns: Heat indices of 100-105 expected Tuesday across much of the area.

- HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through at least Friday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 519 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Have updated to go with likely pops mainly across south central and interior southwest Alabama due to the MCS approaching from the north. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 266 is in effect until 10 pm for much of south central Alabama. No other major changes. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Our active weather pattern continues with westerly to northwesterly flow aloft setting up over the area in response to a trough transiting the Mid-Atlantic states the next few days. A back door cold front moves across the area Wednesday in response to this trough, and will allow for drier, cooler air to infiltrate the area mid to late week. Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms the next couple days, with rain chances dwindling significantly mid to late week. Southeast Mississippi may hang on to some small rain chances Wednesday before the front is fully through the area. Afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 90's today and tomorrow become near or just below seasonable norms in the 80's Wednesday through the weekend. Afternoon heat indices once again top out in the 100 to 105 range today and Tuesday.

Some strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into the evening hours, best chances near and north of the Highway 84 corridor. Generally weak shear around 15 to 25 knots over the interior, weaker towards the coast, coupled with the passing shortwave and 4,000 to 5,000j/kg of CAPE should allow for loosely organized clusters of storms to develop this afternoon. There'll likely be two areas of focus, with the first being on an eventual MCS to develop north of the area in northern Alabama that sags southward with time, likely reaching our forecast area late afternoon into the evening hours. This will have the best threat for any strong to severe storms owing to the "stronger" shear with primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Further south nearer the coast, afternoon thunderstorms will likely fire off on whatever sea breeze boundary tries to work its way inland. Shear is much weaker down south, and the expectation would be for more pulse type storms than anything. These still could pose a threat for small hail and/or damaging wind gusts in any microbursts. Any storms today will pose the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, particularly if storms can remain stationary or train over the same locations or areas that were hard hit the past week. While some risk for strong storms persists Tuesday, weak shear should preclude any organized severe risk with main hazards being gusty winds and small hail. Once again, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is possible Tuesday with any slow moving storms. MM/25

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Numerous storms mainly across interior southwest Alabama, south central Alabama and a portion of the western Florida panhandle are expected to diminish later this evening leaving mostly dry conditions. Scattered storms develop across the area again on Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon hours. IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms. Outside of storms, variable winds 5 knots or less tonight become northwesterly on Tuesday, with a switch to a southwesterly direction near the coast in the afternoon. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists today. Winds shift to northerly and then easterly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, strengthening to moderate to occasionally strong flow through the end of the week. Seas increase to 5 to 7 feet by mid week. Southeasterly flow develops Friday through much of the weekend. Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 91 69 81 / 30 50 60 20 Pensacola 76 91 70 81 / 30 40 60 10 Destin 77 89 70 82 / 40 40 60 10 Evergreen 73 92 65 81 / 60 50 40 0 Waynesboro 73 91 67 80 / 40 50 30 0 Camden 73 89 64 80 / 60 30 30 0 Crestview 73 93 65 81 / 50 50 60 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.