textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the rest of the week.

- Heat indices will trend upward, reaching around 100-107 degrees through the weekend.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents is expected to develop at area beaches Friday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Starting off tonight with a broad overview looking at the mid- levels, we remain sandwiched between two dominant ridge centers, one anomalously strong, 594dm ridge anchored across the SW US and another offshore the Mid-atlantic states. This slow/steady transition into a broader weakness regime over the northern Gulf has started to weaken the mid-level subsidence inversion steadily, obtaining a bit greater LCL-surface inversion instability to support a few isolated showers/storms going following sfc heating, more particularly aided by sea/baybreeze collisions. Generally speaking, expecting no major difference today starting off the day with a few showers forced by the northward drifting sea/baybreeze from 15-18Z, then greater areal coverage in isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon when the coast clears out. Dewpoints will drop from afternoon PBL mixing ahead of the boundary reaching the low 70's/upper 60's inland.

Looking beyond into Friday and the upcoming weekend, quite frankly the pattern remains much of the same with little notable changes with the same diurnal isolated to scattered shower windows starting near the coast, ending inland. We do continue to see a steady uptick in surface dewpoints that does climb max heat indices into the 105-107 range in spots, but still far from anything concerning/impactful at this time. The aforementioned upper-air pattern does transition slightly with the ridge center pressing north across the four-corners region, and the mid- atlantic coast ridge dipping south to just offshore coastal FL. What this could, in part do is allow east to west tropical impulses to ride west into the Gulf and find the weakness towards our neck of the woods. This will in turn support an uptick in daily rain/storm chances and coverage by the additional dynamic support at play in conjunction with a deep, moist southerly Gulf flow. Can't rule out an uptick in coverage, namely Sunday through Tuesday.

Looking at the extended/late end of the forecast into the middle of next week, took a closer look at cluster analysis to identify ensemble similarities and trends in regards to a suggested strengthening ridge over the northern Gulf, that 1) could reduce daily rain chances and 2) could re-crank the heat back up a notch. CMC, EMS and GEFS similarities are rather confident thus far, so something to watch as we near closer.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Some patchy fog and/or low ceilings with localized MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out late tonight away from the coast. A 20-40% chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two exists near the coast this morning, spreading inland through the afternoon. This activity could create brief drops to MVFR or lower visibilities. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable winds tonight will become southeasterly to southerly on Thursday at around 5-10 knots. Some gusts to 15-20 knots are possible over southern areas with the sea breeze. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Current light southerly to southwesterly winds shift on Thursday to southeasterly to easterly before becoming generally southerly by the beginning of next week. Wind speeds should remain around 5-10 knots with some gusts up to 15 knots Friday and Saturday. Wave heights stay 1-2 feet through the beginning of next week. Friday through mid next week, showers and storms are possible in the morning then shifts inland for the afternoon hours. Higher winds and seas are possible near any thunderstorms. SS/97

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 73 92 73 / 30 10 20 0 Pensacola 89 75 90 76 / 10 10 20 0 Destin 89 77 89 77 / 10 10 30 10 Evergreen 92 71 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 Waynesboro 96 73 95 71 / 20 20 10 20 Camden 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 10 Crestview 93 71 93 72 / 20 10 30 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.