textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 547 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Rounds of heavy rainfall may result in areas of life- threatening flash flooding today, especially over the Florida Panhandle. Some residual river flooding is also expected through midweek.

- A HIGH risk of rip currents continues for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through at least Monday.

- Minor coastal flooding is expected early this morning during high tide with water levels up to 2 feet above normally dry ground.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A very moist tropical air mass remains in place this morning with widespread rain and embedded convection streaming onshore. The 00z LIX sounding observed a PWAT of 2.58 inches, which exceeds the daily record. However, weak lapse rates have limited widespread convective coverage and lightning activity as thermodynamic profiles remain saturated and moist adiabatic through the column.

This has been a challenging forecast as CAMs have struggled to resolve a mesolow, which has been downtrending in strength. As a result, forecast totals have come down slightly. Regardless, slow- moving bands of heavy rain moving onshore will continue to impact areas southeast of I-65 and remain capable of producing flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for coastal counties through midnight tonight.

Additional rainfall totals of 2-5 inches are expected across much of the Watch area, with localized storm totals of 6-10 inches still possible, though this is starting to look less likely. Totals northwest of I-65 look lower overall, with many areas likely receiving less than an inch of additional rainfall, though localized 2-4 inch amounts cannot be ruled out. The greatest focus for flash flooding remains along and south of I-10 across the western Florida Panhandle.

There is also a low tornado risk along the Florida Panhandle coast given modest low-level shear and sufficient low-level instability offshore for the development of mini-spinnies that may move onshore early this morning. Otherwise, no widespread severe weather is expected, though a few embedded storms could produce gusty winds. Rain should begin to exit the area by evening, with highs remaining in the mid to upper 70s away from the coast due to persistent rain and cloud cover.

Minor river flooding is forecast on the Styx and Shoal Rivers due to the expected rainfall, while other rivers across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle are expected to rise to action stage. Some residual river flooding will remain possible through midweek.

For the workweek, a diffuse cold frontal zone moves into the area tonight into Monday, bringing northeasterly flow and gradually decreasing moisture and rain chances through midweek as it pushes offshore. Scattered showers and storms remain possible Monday afternoon with PWATs still around 2 inches. Drier air will begin to filter into inland areas Tuesday, with dry conditions expected through the remainder of the workweek. Highs will be in the 80s with seasonably cool lows as northwest flow aloft develops with a broad trough over the Northeast. Strong northeast winds over the Gulf may reach Small Craft Advisory criteria beginning Tuesday.

Looking toward next weekend, ensemble guidance indicates troughing entering the central U.S. as ridging builds west into the eastern Gulf. This would send moisture back northward into the area with another potential threat for heavy rainfall. Potential tropical development will also need to be monitored, as the NHC has indicated a 20 percent chance of development over the southwest Gulf during the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A low pressure system and slow moving front over the area will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms and prevailing IFR conditions to the terminals for much of the forecast period. Ceilings will range between 500 to 1000 feet at all of the terminals. The periods of rain and high humidity will keep prevailing MVFR visibiltiies of 3 to 5 miles in place at all of the terminals, and PROB30 wording from 16z through around 21 to 22z reflects the thunderstorm risk with gusty winds of 25 knots and IFR visibilties of 1 to 2 miles due to heavy rain expected at times. The thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish after 03z, but prevailing IFR ceilings will persist through Monday morning. PG

MARINE

Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Outside of gusty winds with thunderstorms, overall light winds and seas of less than 3 feet can be expected through Monday. A cold front will start to push through the waters Monday night into Tuesday and winds will increase from the east and northeast to between 15 and 25 knots with the stronger winds out in the open waters. Seas will respond to these winds and increase to 5 to 7 feet creating rough conditions offshore. These small craft advisory conditions will persist through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 78 68 82 68 / 90 70 40 10 Pensacola 80 71 82 70 / 100 90 50 30 Destin 81 72 82 71 / 100 80 60 40 Evergreen 77 66 82 64 / 100 80 40 10 Waynesboro 77 66 82 64 / 80 40 40 10 Camden 77 65 83 63 / 90 70 40 10 Crestview 77 67 80 66 / 100 90 60 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch through this evening for ALZ261>266.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ201>206.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202- 204-206.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.