textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1056 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday over areas along I-10 as wind chills fall into the 20 to 25 degree range.

- Strong winds over the marine area will create hazardous conditions for small craft until diminishing through tonight. Strong winds may also create hazardous conditions for small craft Friday night into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1056 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Dry conditions are expected through Thursday, with cold temperatures gradually trending to seasonable values. A surface ridge continues to build into the region through tonight, then eventually begins to shift east of the area on Thursday and allow for a southwesterly surface flow to develop. Lows tonight range from the mid 20s inland to around 30 at the coast. It appears that surface winds will be sufficient to result in wind chill values just below 25 over much of the coastal counties tonight, and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for this portion from midnight tonight until 9 am Wednesday. While similar wind chill values are expected further inland, this will not meet the inland criteria of values from 11-20. A shortwave system advances across the central states on Thursday and becomes absorbed into an upper trof over the interior eastern states on Friday. Another shortwave system advances across the south central states on Friday then moves across the southeast states Friday night into Saturday morning, with the upper trof pattern meanwhile amplifying to encompass all of the eastern states. A surface low associated with this overall pattern is expected to progress from the southern Plains to across the southeast states, and bring a cold front through the forecast area from late Friday night into Saturday morning. Will have slight chance to chance pops over interior portions of the forecast area on Friday, and likely to categorical pops for Friday night. Rain chances end from west to east on Saturday. Instability looks limited during this period but sufficient to support some isolated embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures will be on the mild side from Friday through Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid 60s to occasionally lower 70s, which is roughly 10 degrees above normal. Warm temperatures Friday night in the mid 50s to around 60 drop off through Sunday night to range from the lower 40s to around 50, but even these temperatures are 5-10 degrees above seasonable values. Lows Monday night range from the mid 40s inland to the lower 50s closer to the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday night. A moderate risk of rip currents on Friday will be followed by a high risk Friday night and Saturday. A moderate risk is expected Saturday night with a low risk for Sunday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday morning. North to northwest winds 10-15 knots this afternoon diminish to 5 knots or less tonight, then a northwesterly flow at 5-10 knots follows for Wednesday morning. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1056 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Moderate to strong northerly winds diminish late tonight into Wednesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory currently in effect for the entire area gradually drops through 3 am tonight. A light to moderate northwesterly to westerly flow follows through Thursday. A southwesterly flow develops Thursday night and strengthens through Friday night, then winds switch to the northwest on Saturday as a cold front moves through. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for much of the marine area Friday night into Saturday morning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 28 57 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 32 56 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 34 55 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 26 57 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 26 57 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 25 55 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 26 56 32 65 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ263>266.

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ670-675.