textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. Hazards will include intense rain rates leading to localized flooding and brief gusty winds. For marine areas, waterspouts and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible this weekend.

- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in place for local area beaches this weekend.

- Heat index values of 95-100 trend higher by the middle of next week, potentially reaching 103-110.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The current radar loop shows a circulation located roughly 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola associated with a weak surface low. The surface low is anticipated to drift slowly westward through early next week, potentially moving into the northwestern Gulf. The National Hurricane Center has a 0% chance of tropical development for this feature through early Monday morning, with a 10% chance of development through next Saturday. While the chance of tropical development is low, this system is anticipated to bring high rain chances mainly to portions of the coastal counties from later tonight through Sunday morning along with scattered convective development further inland during the day. As noted by the previous shift, will need to monitor for the potential for locally heavy rain and possibly flooding issues mainly over the coastal counties mainly from late tonight through Sunday morning, along with waterspout development over the marine area.

A weak upper trof currently extends across the Carolinas into the northeastern Gulf with an upper ridge spanning much of the remainder of the southern states. The upper ridge builds into the eastern CONUS through Tuesday while the weak upper trof becomes less defined though some vestiges will linger generally over the northeastern Gulf and adjacent coastal areas. As the weak surface low moves slowly off to the west, a surface ridge builds across the southeastern states and promotes a predominately easterly to southeasterly surface flow. For Sunday night into Monday, am expecting a repeat of convection developing near the coast during the overnight and into the morning hours, though convective coverage and potential QPF amounts look lower when compared to tonight into Sunday morning. Convective development Monday afternoon looks to be favored mostly across the southern half of the forecast area where the best low level convergence sets up likely due to a combination of the departing weak surface low and the sea breeze.

Have gone with mainly chance to likely pops for Wednesday, then chance pops follow for Thursday and Friday. Highs on Sunday range from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s further inland then trend to the lower to mid 90s for next week. Heat index values will typically be near 100 on Sunday then gradually trend to 102-107 for Wednesday through Friday, with higher values of 103-110 possible. A moderate risk of rip currents is in effect through Sunday, then a low risk follows for Monday through Wednesday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions with a few temporary MVFR ceilings will prevail through the afternoon and overnight. Scattered showers and storms producing brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings are also expected this afternoon, especially along and southeast of I- 65. Showers and storms along the coast are expected to become more widespread by Sunday morning, mainly south of I-10. Any heavier bands may produce gusty winds and very heavy rain, with ceilings and visibilities reduced to IFR or lower. Easterly to southeasterly winds are expected through the period at around 5-10 knots, occasionally 10-15 knots along the coast. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Main focus across marine areas will be a weak surface low generally stationed well offshore in the 20-60nm zones, providing enhanced shower and storm coverage this morning through tonight through the day on Saturday. Main risks will be locally gusty winds in any squalls, likely reaching 34kts at times and waterspouts. Activity will persist through the day and into the day on Sunday, with moderate (10-15kt) easterly flow outside of any thunderstorm activity. This weak low likely drifts west with time, establishing a greater southeasterly/onshore flow regime remaining light to moderate at 10-15kts. Waves/seas respond slightly in the 2-3ft range but lack of distinct long-duration fetch will limit any enhanced wave activity, but will be elevated/enhanced in any locally strong or severe storms. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 88 73 91 / 20 70 20 50 Pensacola 75 87 76 89 / 60 70 40 40 Destin 76 88 76 89 / 50 60 30 40 Evergreen 69 91 70 94 / 10 40 10 20 Waynesboro 71 92 70 95 / 0 30 10 20 Camden 71 90 70 93 / 10 30 10 20 Crestview 70 90 70 93 / 20 60 10 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.