textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 - Extreme Heat Warning in effect for coastal areas today with a Heat Advisory for remainder of the area. Additional Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are possible Wednesday.

- High Risk of rip currents is expected to return by next weekend for all area beaches.

- Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances increase in the middle to latter part of the week. A few storms may produce strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Latest guidance has trended downward on convective chances late this afternoon and early evening as the only focus to drive convection will be the developing sea breeze. Lowered the pops to slight chance to low end chance across the coastal counties. Any storms that can form will be capable of localized strong wind gusts.

The biggest hazard today will be the very dangerous heat with high temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s, with heat index values exceeding 112 degrees along the coast, and 108 degrees elsewhere.

Forecast updates have been sent and additional updates will be issued later today as needed. /JLH

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

An upper trof oriented near/along the East Coast begins to amplify Wednesday followed by a significant expansion of the upper trof Friday into Saturday to encompass the eastern half of the CONUS. A large upper ridge centered over the central states which also extends into the north central Gulf coast begins to pull back from the region on Wednesday, followed by a retreat to the western half of the CONUS later in the week. A surface low located well to the north brings a weak cold front into the forecast area on Wednesday which then meanders over the area through Thursday. The weak boundary may persist over the area on Friday before dissipating, with a surface low meanwhile approaching from the Plains and is anticipated to move into the eastern states this weekend. A series of shortwaves and the sea breeze are anticipated to support some convective development on Tuesday and have gone with slight chance to chance pops mainly for the coastal counties. Slight chance to chance pops follow for the entire area on Wednesday, then rain chances trend up to chance to likely pops for Thursday. Mostly chance to possibly likely pops follow for Friday, then trend to likely to categorical pops by Sunday.

The main concern for the forecast continues to be dangerously hot conditions Tuesday and for Wednesday as well. High temperatures on Tuesday will be mostly in the upper 90s to around 100 with similar values for Wednesday except that highs will probably be limited to the mid 90s well inland. Heat index values on Tuesday mostly range from 108 to 112 except for higher values of 113 near the coast. Heat index values on Wednesday look similar though will probably be limited to around 105 over the inland portions of south central Alabama. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect from 10 am to 9 pm Tuesday for areas near the coast while a Heat Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area. Another Extreme Heat Warning will likely become necessary for coastal areas on Wednesday as well, with another Heat Advisory for much of the remainder of the area. Highs moderate on Thursday to the lower to mid 90s which will probably keep heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria of 108, then highs gradually trend to the upper 80s by Sunday as rain chances steadily increase. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Alabama beaches on Tuesday with a moderate risk for western Florida panhandle beaches. For Wednesday through Friday, a high risk of rip currents is expected for the western Florida panhandle beaches while a moderate risk is anticipated for the Alabama beaches. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today outside of any isolated to scattered storms. Winds will remain between 6-12 knots with directional shifts associated with the developing bay and sea breezes. Visibilities and ceilings will be reduced in any storms that impact the TAF sites. /JLH

MARINE

Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A diurnal wind pattern is expected is expected to persist through the week with light to moderate onshore winds each day driven by the sea breeze and light to moderate offshore winds each night driven by the land breeze. Storm coverage will increase by mid week with widespread coverage by next weekend. Winds and waves will be locally higher near any storms along the increased threat for dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop over the Gulf waters by next weekend. /JLH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 99 78 98 76 / 30 10 40 50 Pensacola 97 81 97 79 / 30 10 40 60 Destin 94 82 94 80 / 20 10 40 60 Evergreen 97 77 96 73 / 0 10 40 30 Waynesboro 100 78 98 75 / 0 0 50 30 Camden 97 78 93 73 / 0 0 40 20 Crestview 99 78 98 75 / 20 10 50 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>264.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201-203-205.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.