textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1209 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Fog will become more likely by the end of the week, with the potential of dense marine fog by Thursday and Friday nights.

- The next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms will be at the end of the week into the weekend as the next cold front approaches. - Strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from Saturday night into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Upper level ridging across the region will give way to upper level WSW to SW flow by Thursday and Friday. A cold front will attempt to push south into the area by Friday, but it will likely stall just north of the area as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. This pattern will result in gradually increasing moisture levels through the end of the week. Despite the increasing low level moisture, rain chances will likely be slow to respond due to a lack of significant upper level forcing. NBM rain chances appear too agressive for today and Thursday, so we have removed rain chances for today and will keep them just in the 20-40% range on Thursday. A more amplified shortwave will develop over the intermountain west on Friday and quickly move east on Saturday. This will finally result in the cold front pushing through the area by Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The best rain chances for our area will likely occur on Saturday immediatly ahead of the front. At this point, shear and instability appear to be marginal and not suggestive of a substantial severe weather risk. We will continue to monitor the trends over the next few days.

Temperatures will climb to well above normal levels through Saturday with many locations exceeding 80 degrees for highs Thursday through Saturday. Enjoy the warmth while you can because winter will be greeting us once again by Sunday and Monday in the wake of the strong cold front. Lows are expected to drop back down into the 30s by Monday morning.

Rip Current Outlook: A moderate risk of rip currents will return to area beaches Thursday into Thursday night and persist through the weekend. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

It continues to be a challenging ceiling forecast for the rest of tonight into tomorrow morning. Current observations indicate most areas have remained at VFR levels this evening, but there have been pockets of MVFR to IFR ceilings. Overall we expect a gradual increase in MVFR ceiling coverage overnight and cannot rule out periods of IFR ceilings. However, confidence remains low in IFR conditions becoming prevalent. Daytime heating should help ceilings return to VFR levels by midday Wednesday. However, probabilities are increasing for the potential of widespread MVFR and IFR ceilings late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Winds will remain out of the south, generally in the 5-10 kt range. 34/JFB

MARINE

Issued at 1209 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A light to moderate onshore flow will continue through Saturday. A strong cold front will move through the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A strong offshore flow develops in the wake of the front on Sunday and persists into Sunday night, with seas quickly building over the Gulf waters.

The probability of dense marine fog is increasing, especially by Thursday night through Saturday, as increasingly warm and moist air advects over the relatively cooler bays and sounds. For now, we have introduced patchy fog into the forecast. However, if probabilities continue to increase, then a Marine Dense Fog advisory may become necessary by the end of the week. 34/JFB

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.