textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 - There is the potential for a few severe storms with localized strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday, with the best chance occurring this afternoon and tonight.

- Summertime heat returns over the weekend into early next week. Heat advisories possible over portions of the area early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

24.12Z upper air maps show the axis of a mid to high level ridge centered over northern MX across the lower 4 corners of the Desert Southwest. The nose of this feature is oriented southeast to the Gulf. On the northeast periphery of the ridge, resides an active northwest flow at high levels of which is embedded a couple of notable convective features. The first and closest to the local area is sinking southeast over southwest MS and a second, more potent complex with concentrated lightning activity was dropping southeast over east OK/western AR. The first feature will likely see a mesoscale outflow boundary and mid level energy being the source of focus for additional convective initiation as it sinks southeast into a warm, moist and unstable environment over the central Gulf coast. Mesoanalysis on the pre-storm environment from late AM shows the best instability/deep layer moisture gradients (SBCAPE's 2000- 4000 J/Kg)(PWAT's: 1.6 to 2.0") oriented from southern MS, westward across LA. While deep layer shear remains rather weak at this time, there does appear to be a window for a slight uptick in 0-3km shear to around 20 to 25 knots. This would likely be enough to support some multicellular clusters and potentially a little more robust outflow driven system or cluster of storms which is supported in the latest convection allowing models (CAM's) and short range ensembles. Development of and southeastward moving clusters of storms, a few of which could become marginally severe with damaging winds being the main threats is advertised in the near term. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the area, generally west of a Greenville AL to Pensacola FL line, in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for through tonight. A similar pattern continues into the day Thursday too.

Due to recent excessive rains, especially in the hardest hit areas, antecedent soil moisture levels and low flash flood guidance are such that any heavy rains from storms through tonight could quickly lead to runoff and flooding issues over problem lower lying and urbanized areas subject to poor drain off of storm water. Considering this, a slight risk of flash flooding is outlooked for much of the area.

By the end of the week, upper ridging will quickly begin to build over the southeastern US. Large scale compressional sinking will result in two outcomes: One, a decrease in storm chances and secondly a rise in temperatures. Heat indices look to climb into the triple digits area-wide by the weekend with highs heating up into lower/mid 90's. The latest gridded forecast suggests heat products may be required for portions of the area the start of next week as heat indices move into advisory criteria 108-112 then. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

General VFR conditions will see local drops to low end MVFR as isolated to scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms develop and move east over the forecast area this afternoon. After a short respite this evening, another round of convection is expected to develop later tonight into Thursday AM, dropping VFR/upper MVFR conditions to lower end MVFR/IFR. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Mariners are urged to stay weather aware in the near term for clusters of thunderstorms that spread south and southeast off the coast. A few of the storms will likely be strong with wind gusts perhaps in excess of 40 kts, locally higher waves/seas, frequent lightning and brief visibility reducing heavy rains. Away from storms, a weak stationary front straddles the coast bringing variable winds through tonight. The boundary lifts back up to the north Thursday and dissipates as south to southwest flow becomes established from high pressure setting up over the southwest Atlantic into the central Gulf Friday through the weekend. Seas 2 feet or less. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 88 74 90 / 60 70 10 10 Pensacola 75 87 77 90 / 60 70 50 20 Destin 75 86 77 88 / 30 60 50 20 Evergreen 69 85 71 90 / 80 60 30 40 Waynesboro 70 88 72 93 / 70 40 10 10 Camden 69 84 71 89 / 70 40 20 30 Crestview 71 86 72 90 / 40 80 50 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.