textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 721 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents through Saturday night for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Surf builds to 5-7 feet through Friday. High surf combined with high tide will lead to overwash and minor inundation issues along the coast on Thursday and Friday.

- Small craft conditions persist through Saturday. - Increasing rain chances this weekend with heavy rainfall leading to more flooding concerns.

UPDATE

Issued at 721 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Right on cue, the winds starting cranking up along the coastline in the pre-dawn hours this morning with gusts of 25-30mph already noted at many beaches. These gusty conditions will continue along the coast throughout the day as easterly flow strengthens over the Gulf.

Conditions at the beaches are expected to go downhill quickly over the next few hours with the surf and rip currents progressively getting worse. We are already seeing the surf kicking up on some of the webcams at our Florida panhandle beaches this morning. A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect now through Saturday night before conditions begin to improve. High surf is expected by late tonight with 5 foot breakers expected overnight and into Thursday with 6-7 foot breakers expected at the beaches on Friday. Overwash and minor inundation of portions of Dauphin Island and Fort Pickens is expected Thursday and Friday due to the combination of high surf and high tide. If the winds manage to turn southeasterly on Friday, we will also have to contend with the possibility of minor inundation in the northern reaches of Mobile Bay in the afternoon hours coinciding with high tide. If those water levels are realized, there may be splash over issues on the Causeway over Mobile Bay at the front end of rush hour on Friday. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

High pressure will continue to build across the Appalachians through Friday before pushing into the western Atlantic by the weekend. This is allowing for a cold air damming (CAD) pattern to setup across the Southeast US through Friday. The leading edge of this CAD is a backdoor cold front that is currently located over our eastern-most counties as of midnight this morning. This front, and any lingering showers and storms, should continue pushing to the southwest throughout the overnight and into the morning hours. Anomalously dry air for this time of year will begin filtering in from the northeast by the afternoon hours. In fact, by tonight, PWATs may range from 0.5-0.8 inches (approx 2.5 standard deviations below normal in some spots) and dew points should plummet into the upper 40s to low 50s for much of the area. These dry conditions (along with little to no rain chances) should continue through at least Thursday night. Temperatures will also be a few degrees cooler than average, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s inland to the mid to upper 60s along the coast.

The pattern quickly changes on Friday as a non-tropical surface low attempts to form along the front south of Louisiana. As this low lifts northward, deep moisture will also surge to the north, bringing PWATs of around 2 inches back into the area by late Friday. This will help to bring multiple rounds of showers and storms back into the forecast for the weekend. Not anticipating any severe weather at this time due to shear values remaining very low. That being said, storms would likely be slow-moving, and with very high PWATs in place, storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers. If any boundaries are able to set up and storms are able to train over the same locations, then a heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat may materialize for this weekend, especially considering the copious amounts of rainfall we have seen over the past couple weeks. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days.

The other big concern we have is with regards to beach conditions. Strong easterly winds are expected to develop later this morning, becoming more southeasterly by Thursday. This will allow for our rip current risk to quickly rise to a High Risk today, continuing through at least Saturday. We will also have to monitor for the potential for High Surf, especially as we get to the Thursday night/Friday timeframe. Right now, guidance suggests surf heights to around 4-5 feet, but any further increases would likely result in the issuance of a High Surf Advisory. Lastly, although coastal flooding is not anticipated at this time due to a more easterly wind direction, the timing of the tidal cycle combined with the stronger winds and high surf may promote overwash into some of our trouble spots such as Fort Pickens and Dauphin Island, possibly resulting in some localized minor inundation. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 721 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Ceilings will fall to MVFR over the next 2 hours, but should rebound back to VFR by mid afternoon. Easterly winds gradually continue to increase with gusts of 20-25 knots expected throughout the day at the TAF sites. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 721 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Easterly flow prevails through Thursday. Small craft conditions have developed this morning in the strengthening easterly flow and will persist through Friday across the bays, waterways, and Gulf waters. Onshore flow develops Friday through early next week. Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 64 83 65 / 10 10 0 10 Pensacola 83 67 84 69 / 10 10 0 0 Destin 83 68 84 70 / 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 82 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 82 60 84 60 / 10 10 0 0 Camden 81 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 83 59 86 61 / 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ630>633.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ634-655-675.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ635-636.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for GMZ650- 670.