textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Locally heavy rainfall could be possible along the immediate coastline through Tuesday morning.

- Dry weather and above normal high temperatures return to the forecast mid to late week.

UPDATE

Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Light to moderate rainfall continues to spread across much of the local area this morning. Adjusted PoPs upward for our interior south central Alabama counties for the remainder of the overnight hours as this rain shield appears to be spreading farther north than previously thought. /96

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Our last chance for rain for the foreseeable future is moving across the area this morning with widespread light to moderate rain ongoing. Some patches of locally heavier rainfall with rain rates in the 2 to 2.5 inch per hour range will be possible through the morning leading to some minor ponding in poor drainage areas. All of this rain is a result of a upper level shortwave trough progressing across the deep south with an accompanying surface low moving across the northern Gulf. By Tuesday morning, both the shortwave and the surface low will move east of the area allowing for the rain to slowly taper off from west to east. A few isolated to scattered showers will be possible throughout the afternoon as some lingering wrap around moisture remains in place. By Wednesday, upper level ridging will build across the central US leading to increased northwesterly flow. Drier conditions will persist into the weekend as the upper ridge slowly drifts east. The main talking point by the weekend will be the increasing temperatures. Temperatures will start off the period in the low to mid 80s before climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by the weekend. Luckily moisture will be on the lower end with dewpoints in the low 60s keeping it from feeling downright awful. Nonetheless, our fist little taste of summer is on the way and given the long range pattern this will only be the beginning of a rather dry and toasty period. BB-8

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Light to moderate rainfall continues at issuance time, mainly over areas east of I-65. This rain is helping to reduce flight categories to MVFR or IFR. Rain will continue to slowly push to the east throughout the remainder of the morning, and most areas should briefly return back to VFR by the afternoon. Ceilings may lower to MVFR once again by the evening hours. Northeasterly winds at around 5-10 knots will continue through the period. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A cold front makes passage tonight resulting in a light to occasionally moderate north to northeast flow becoming more moderate easterly flow on Tuesday. Small craft should exercise caution across all offshore Gulf waters through Tuesday. Winds become variable, primarily offshore flow by mid- week before shifting back to onshore Friday, through the weekend and remain light with high pressure positioned to the east. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 64 86 61 / 40 10 0 0 Pensacola 79 67 85 65 / 60 10 0 0 Destin 79 67 83 66 / 70 20 0 0 Evergreen 81 60 85 58 / 40 10 0 0 Waynesboro 83 61 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 81 61 83 57 / 10 10 10 0 Crestview 80 61 86 59 / 70 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.