textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 136 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area through this weekend bringing near to slightly below normal temperatures.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents exists at all area beaches through Friday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A much drier and more Fall-like air mass will be filtering into the area over the next 24 hours. This is thanks to a strong trough and deepening low over the Eastern Seaboard bringing down a deep northerly flow on the backside. Lingering low-level moisture today has kept areas of widespread low clouds in place across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, with other areas seeing cumulus development with daytime heating. CAM guidance suggests scattered shower development this afternoon along and south of the developing sea breeze, mainly over coastal Alabama. Have included 20-30% PoPs to account for this, but lingering cloud cover adds uncertainty regarding instability and resultant coverage. Lightning is not anticipated due to a stout subsidence inversion well below the freezing level limiting convective depth, but brief heavy downpours would be possible with this activity.

A secondary backdoor cool front associated with cold air damming east of the Appalachians will usher in our cool/dry air mass late tonight into Friday, with dew points dropping into the low to mid 60s and even into the 50s for eastern areas. As a result, tonight will be noticeably cooler with lows in the low to mid 60s away from the coast. Friday looks to be the coolest day with lows in the low to mid 80s (this is still near normal). Friday and Saturday nights will feature slightly below normal temperatures with lows in the low to mid 60s and even some upper 50s possible over the interior. A gradual warming trend begins Saturday through early next week with highs getting back to around 90 by Monday.

The dry air will persist through early next week along with near zero rain chances through the weekend and only isolated showers and storms possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Moisture return will then start to kick in by midweek along with increasing rain chances as low-level flow shifts to southeasterly.

At the beaches, rip current risk has been upgraded to Moderate for today, continuing through Friday night with surf heights around 2-3 feet. A Low risk of rip currents is expected Saturday through early next week. JGC/98

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A stingy MVFR cloud deck has stuck around into the afternoon for much of the western FL panhandle, though this is expected to break into a scattered CU field as the afternoon progresses. Later into the afternoon, a mid level impulse should spark scattered convection along the seabreeze boundaries, thereafter these storms will push south and diminish over the gulf overnight. VFR conditions and northeasterly winds are expected to settle in after the storms and persist through the rest of the period. 31

MARINE

Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Light northeasterly flow strengthens to moderate tonight at around 15-20 knots before weakening Friday afternoon. Small craft should exercise caution over the open Gulf waters tonight into Friday morning. A diurnal flow pattern follows for this weekend with light offshore winds developing at night, becoming mostly onshore each day. A more persistent light to moderate southeasterly flow develops by midweek next week. JGC/98

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 67 86 64 87 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 68 85 68 86 / 20 0 0 0 Destin 69 84 69 85 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 62 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 64 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 62 83 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 64 84 61 87 / 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.