textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents Sunday night into Monday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Another round of strong to potentially severe storms is expected late Sunday night into Monday morning, followed by sub-freezing temperatures Monday night.

- Strong marine winds Sunday night through at least Tuesday will create hazardous conditions for small craft operators, with gusts to gale force likely Monday and Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

We are in the midst of gearing up for our next significant weather system with a good mix of impacts, with beach and marine hazards beginning Sunday evening, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms (including damaging winds and possible tornadoes) Sunday night into Monday morning, and sub-freezing temperatures Monday night.

Synopsis...

Temperatures begin to moderate over the weekend as a surface ridge sets up across the southeast states, with highs climbing back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The next chance of rain and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is still on track to occur Sunday night into Monday morning as a large upper trough is expected to dig south over the entire eastern CONUS and another strong cold front approaches from the northwest. This strong cold front will send an arctic airmass southward across our region, with low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night diving into the upper 20s and lower 30s inland and middle 30s along the coast.

Severe Weather Potential...

Weak upper difluence will gradually overspreading our forecast area ahead of the trough on Sunday with an ample warm and moist airmass with dewpoints in middle 60s and increasing MLCape values now up to around 1100 to 1600j/kg, with the highest values closer to the coast. Modest shear for possible organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be in place ahead of another eventual QLCS, and we expect around 200-300 m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH to be present. In addition, sfc-6km Bulk Shear values are expected to be between 50-60 kts, with upper-level lapse rates around 7.3 C/km. This will set the stage for any storms within the QLCS or the discrete activity to pose the potential for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. As always, these severe weather parameters will be monitored closely for any upward or downward trend. Currently the anticipated timing for discrete storms would be Sunday evening across portions of southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. The QLCS is expected to begin to enter southeastern Mississippi and far northwestern Alabama counties late Sunday evening and spread quickly eastward. /22

Beach Forecast - Risk remains LOW through Saturday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The strengthening onshore flow will lead to the risk for rip currents quickly increasing late in the weekend. A HIGH risk for rip currents is now in the forecast for Sunday night through Monday, ahead of the approaching cold front. Surf and rip current conditions should quickly improve in the northerly flow behind the front. 07/mb /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /22

MARINE

Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Light mostly easterly flow will continue into the weekend, shifting southeasterly by Saturday evening. Strengthening onshore flow returns early on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Winds abruptly turn northwesterly behind the front late Sunday into early Monday. Small craft conditions are expected by Monday with the potential for gales behind the front. Strong offshore flow will persist through at least Tuesday of next week. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 48 76 58 80 / 0 0 10 20 Pensacola 52 74 63 77 / 0 0 10 20 Destin 55 73 63 75 / 0 0 20 30 Evergreen 44 80 55 82 / 0 0 10 20 Waynesboro 44 77 55 81 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 44 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 46 80 57 81 / 0 0 10 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.