textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will steadily increase in coverage each afternoon through Friday, gradually diminishing this weekend. Storms will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Summer continues across the area with heat indices topping out at around 100-107 degrees each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

A broad mid-level trough will amplify through the day and dig southward as a ridge to our west retrogrades. This will place the forecast area under stronger northwest flow aloft through the end of the work week. Several shortwaves are expected to rotate around the base of the trough, enhancing the forcing over the area. Given the moist airmass, PWs near 2 inches, this forcing will aid in afternoon convection, which we're starting to see over our northwest counties. A few storms may develop strong enough updrafts to produce gusty winds this afternoon. Otherwise, temps will climb into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon.

The trough will continue to amplify overnight, while surface flow remains relatively weak. Meanwhile, a cluster of storms currently moving through the Midsouth will likely spark additional outflows through the afternoon. Guidance is picking up on these boundaries and developing additional thunderstorms overnight. Given the forcing aloft as a shortwave traverses the region, storms are expected to continue overnight, reaching our northern zones early Thursday morning. There are a lot of discrepancies on timing and location, but there's enough consensus to warrant scattered to numerous PoPs beginning early Thursday morning. An inversion overnight may alleviate the potential for any of these storms becoming severe; however, I'm not too confident that we will cool as much as guidance is suggesting. So, all of that is to say we'll likely begin to see thunderstorms developing near sunrise, with a potential for a couple of rounds of thunderstorms through the day. The main threat with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall. Where storms train over the same area or if rainfall rates are high enough, some flash flooding is possible.

Although the bulk of precip will come to an end Thursday evening, a boundary is expected to stall in the vicinity of the area, though uncertainty remains high on exactly where this boundary stalls. The trough will remain over the area on Friday, with additional thunderstorms expected to develop along the boundary. At this point, the most likely areas to see storms will be along and east/south of I-65. This may change over the next day or two, as we gain more clarity on where the boundary stalls. Rain chances will decrease through the weekend as the ridge to our west pushes east and the trough exits the area. /73

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, but with lower confidence, have opted to keep the PROP30 group. This activity will come to an end around sunset. Additional storms are possible Thursday morning and may be included in subsequent updates as confidence increases. /73

MARINE

Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 89 71 88 / 30 80 50 70 Pensacola 76 88 74 87 / 30 80 60 60 Destin 77 87 75 86 / 40 80 50 50 Evergreen 70 90 69 89 / 40 80 40 70 Waynesboro 72 91 70 92 / 50 60 50 50 Camden 72 88 71 89 / 40 70 50 60 Crestview 71 90 70 87 / 30 70 40 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.