textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated on Sunday afternoon. A few may become strong and produce gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Earlier showers and thunderstorms have moved out of the area after sticking around a little longer than previously thought. In the wake of this activity, clouds persist which will limit heating through the remainder of the day. This makes rest of the afternoon a bit uncertain, as some models have continued to show redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. That said, latest CAMs have handled the current activity fairly well and leave the rest of the day/night relatively dry. This seems to match the pattern a bit better, as we maintain some ridging over the area. The caveat to this will be whether storms over the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley are able to hold together and/or generate an outflow boundary in enough time to reach our area. At this point, this appears unlikely for today and tonight, and again, the cloud cover will limit heating and keep us somewhat capped today. Expect highs to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon.

The forecast for tomorrow depends on the evolution of the thunderstorm activity to our northwest. An MCS will develop over the ArkLaTex region tonight, and then quickly move to the southeast as a shortwaves moves southeast. Based on the expected flow aloft, this activity should miss us to our west, as the steering flows takes it on a more southern trajectory with time. The axis of the ridge remains to our west, keeping northwest flow aloft. While we aren't expecting much activity overnight, the activity will leave the potential for outflow boundaries lingering over the area. Combined with the shortwave, which will reach our area Sunday morning, this could aid in thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Cloudy skies will persist, which will limit instability, so not expecting much in the way of strong to severe storms.

The upper ridge will move eastward overnight Sunday, with ridging expected to persist through Tuesday. This will keep dry and hot conditions over the area for the first part of the work week. Temps will clear into the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, with overnight lows in the 60s. Fortunately, we'll maintain dewpoints in the 60s which will alleviate the fire weather concerns we had last week.

Another pattern change is expected on Wednesday, as a cold front moves through much of the CONUS. A shortwave trough will develop over the Plains (within a larger trough extending from Canada) on Wednesday, with surface low pressure developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will bring a cold front through the area on Wednesday. Guidance is in fair agreement that the front will briefly stall along our coastal counties, which will keep some lingering rainfall in the area through Wednesday night. The front will clear the area by Thursday, with upper ridging and surface high pressure settling in. Behind the front, temperatures will drop quite a bit towards the end of the week, with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. /73

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions will be followed by an IFR ceiling developing across most of the area overnight, with the potential for LIFR to VLIFR conditions in patchy fog. Conditions gradually improve to VFR by mid to late Sunday morning, with scattered convection developing mainly during Sunday afternoon. Winds become light and variable this evening, then transition to a west to northwest flow around 5 knots Sunday morning. Winds become southwesterly 5-10 knots over the coastal counties and extreme southeast Mississippi Sunday afternoon while a light west to northwest flow prevails further inland. /29

MARINE

Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through the weekend and into the middle of next week. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 85 66 85 / 20 40 10 0 Pensacola 68 82 68 82 / 20 30 10 0 Destin 68 80 68 81 / 20 30 10 10 Evergreen 61 86 61 90 / 20 40 10 10 Waynesboro 64 84 64 88 / 20 50 20 10 Camden 62 82 62 88 / 20 40 10 20 Crestview 62 87 62 89 / 20 30 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.