textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 639 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- High rain chances continue through Saturday with the potential for localized flash flooding. A few strong storms capable of producing strong wind gusts will be possible through the weekend.

- High temperature are expected to increase next week with heat indices ranging from 100-107 degrees, 102 to 109 MOnday and Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Have updated to increase pops over the western half of the area this evening due to a broken line of convection slowly advancing mainly across southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama. This convection is anticipated to weaken and dissipate later this evening, then additional convective development will occur overnight mainly near the coast on into south central Alabama. Made other minor adjustments. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Through Monday...Shortwave energy moves through an upper level trough currently over the Lower Mississippi River Valley today. This upper trough moves over the Southeast, then shifts off the East Coast, as an upper high organizing over the Southern Plains, then moves over the Tennessee River Valley and Southeast. The stream of shortwave energy moving onshore through Saturday over the forecast area and nearby will combine with the soupy airmass currently over the forecast area (precipitable h20 values generally in the 2.1"- 2.3" range) to create numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms over the forecast area this afternoon into tonight. A drier airmass slowly edges east over the forecast area through the weekend into Monday (with precipitable h20 values dropping into the 1.5"-1.7 range by Monday), dropping rain chances to isolated to low end scattered Monday, with the highest values being seabreeze initiated convection well south of Highway 84. There is a possibility of water issues into Saturday east of the Alabama River with good instability (MLCapes topping out in the 2000-2500J/kg range). Add in weak winds and slow cell movement, any efficient rainers may cause water issues. Strong to marginally severe storms remain possible Sunday and Monday, with MLCapes still around 2000J/kg, along with DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg range, along with weak shear, with pulse severe the expected damage mode.

Temperatures see a rise from a bit above seasonal norms to well above by above by Monday. High temperatures in the around 90 to low 90s Saturday (with Heat Indices topping out in the 98 to 106 degree range) to the low to low to mid 90s Monday (with heat indices in the 101 to 108 range). Low temperatures remain in the low to mid 70s through the weekend, upper 70s along the coast.

In the extended, an upper low moves south along the East Coast, shifting the upper high over the Southeast/Tennessee River Valley westward (to varying extents depending upon the model). Ahead of the upper low moving south, a drier airmass moves over the eastern half of the Southeast. Temperatures see a downward trend into the end of the week with the loss of upper subsidence from the shifting upper high, with Heat Indices seeing an even greater drop (mid to upper 90s by Thursday). PoPs remain on the drier side, especially over areas north of our coastal counties. Guidance is inconsistent with the effect of the upper low on shifting the upper high, so have went with a blend for the current forecast. With all the inconsistency, have less confidence in the current latter half of the forecast.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected through the weekend into the coming week. A more organized, moderate easterly flow will bring an increase swell to area beaches, along with a Moderate to High Rip Risk to area beaches. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Showers and storms will affect portions of southeast Mississippi and southwestern Alabama this evening before weakening, then additional convection is expected to develop overnight near the coast and into south central Alabama. The showers and storms spread inland during the day on Saturday. MVFR conditions will accompany the stronger showers and storms. Outside of the convection, winds become light and variable this evening, then a south to southwest flow at 5-10 knots develops on Saturday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

An upper high moving over the Tennessee River Valley/Southeast, with shift a surface high over the northern Gulf, bringing a more variable flow to area waters early in the coming week. A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians through the coming week, bringing a light to moderate easterly flow to area waters, with better flow over open Gulf waters. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 89 73 91 / 60 60 30 60 Pensacola 77 88 77 90 / 50 70 40 70 Destin 78 88 78 89 / 50 70 40 50 Evergreen 71 90 70 93 / 50 70 20 50 Waynesboro 71 91 71 94 / 40 50 10 30 Camden 71 89 71 92 / 60 70 20 20 Crestview 72 90 72 91 / 50 70 30 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.