textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1207 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- The potential for winter weather returns to portions of the forecast area this coming weekend as our next weather system moves in. Forecast trends will continue to be monitored over the coming days.

- In the wake of this weekends system, very cold temperatures will move into the region with overnight temperatures dipping into the lower 20's and wind chills in the teens.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Now through Tuesday

For the current package...the happenings in the first 6 periods of the forecast lead to a winter event this coming weekend. Taking a look at the synoptics for the rest of this week, a series of upper level shortwaves move through a shallow upper trough over the Southeast. The first passes Wednesday night into Thursday, with southerly flow bringing Gulf moisture inland over the Lower Mississippi River Valley/western Southeast, and precipitable h20 values rising to around 1.2" over the forecast area and nearby. A weak cold front moves south over the Southeast in response, stalling near the northern border of the forecast area by the end of Thursday. This stalled boundary provides the focus for precipitation into Friday before another series of shortwaves pass Friday into the weekend and the surface boundary continues to push further south to varying extents in response. Isentropic upglide precipitation continues into the weekend before a closed low over the Southwest opens and begins to move east over the Southern Plains. Isentropic continues through the weekend before ending Sunday night as the cold front pushes well south of the forecast area and a colder, drier airmass moves over the forecast area. A surface low develops along the boundary late in the week, enhancing the upglide flow as it passes south of the forecast area late Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures well below seasonal norms start the beginning of the coming week as a result, with WWAs expected.

Taking a more focused look at this weekend's precipitation type. How much and how far south the colder air pushes south over the Southeast before this weekend's precipitation occurs has been inconsistent in the guidance, both run to run and between models. The latest guidance is painting ice accumulation totals at most of 0.25" over northwestern corners of Wayne and Choctaw Counties, tapering quickly downward the further southeast one goes. Will need to monitor and not pin down specific numbers at this time.

With general onshore flow into the weekend, the Rip Current Risk remains low to low moderate through the week, with an uptick to moderate to at times strong this weekend as the surface low passes. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. However, cirrus clouds will increase overnight and low clouds will increase on Wednesday that could enter into high-end MVFR levels by mid-afternoon. Light northeasterly to easterly winds tonight will become southeast 5-10 knots on Wednesday. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1207 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow tonight into Wednesday will ease to light for the rest of the week. A surface low passing south of the forecast area this weekend will become a moderate to at times strong onshore flow this weekend. After the surface low passes, offshore flow increases in the coming week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 55 71 54 68 / 30 40 30 40 Pensacola 57 69 57 68 / 20 20 20 40 Destin 55 67 56 67 / 10 10 20 40 Evergreen 47 70 49 66 / 30 40 40 40 Waynesboro 50 67 51 63 / 60 50 50 40 Camden 48 65 49 62 / 50 60 50 50 Crestview 46 71 50 69 / 10 20 20 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.