textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1155 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Increasing winds will result in a High risk of rip currents for all area beaches Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of the next cold front.

- Winds associated with the front will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the Gulf Wednesday night through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Now through Tuesday...

A weak upper ridge over the Southeast will move off through mid week as an upper trough digs south over the southwestern Conus and Mexico, then moves east over the Southeast. Another, deeper upper trough moves over the eastern Conus on the heels of the first trough. Surface high pressure over the region gets pushed east of the region, with a moisture increasing flow off the Gulf setting up beginning mid week. Precipitable moisture values around 0.5"-0.6" at this time rise to around 1.5" by Thursday morning. Light isentropic rain begins to set up over the forecast area Wednesday night. Increasing instability later Wednesday night into Thursday will allow for rumblers to mix in. At this point, guidance is painting the best instability over areas west of the Alabama/Mississippi state line or along and south of the Gulf coast, with surface based cape topping out around 1000J/kg, limited by rather modest height falls with the passing upper trough. Wind shear tops out between 40 and 50 knots Thursday, with 0-1km helicities topping out around 200m^2/s^2, albeit generally well north of the better instability. The ingredients are not quite lining up over the forecast area, limiting the chance of strong to severe storms over the forecast area Thursday/Thursday evening. Will need to monitor, though. A post system cold front crosses the forecast area Thursday night, ushering in a mainly drier airmass for the weekend. Surface high pressure passes quickly over the forecast area Saturday, with moisture levels increasing into the coming week.

High temperatures in the mid 60s Wednesday rise into mid 60s to around 70 Thursday. Post front, high temperatures Friday in the mid 50s to around 60 are expected. Temperatures rebound over the weekend, to around 70 to low 70s for Sunday on. Low temperatures ranging from around 50 to mid 50s are expected Wednesday night. Post frontal passage, low temperatures drop into the low 30s to around 40 Friday night. From there

A moderate onshore flow will bring increasing onshore swell Wednesday night into the weekend, with a Moderate to at times high Rip Current risk Thursday through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Thursday through Friday night. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions expected through the day. An approaching system will bring increasing coverage of isentropic upglide showers, with conditions beginning to drop Wednesday night. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1155 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Light easterly winds tonight will transition to a moderate to at times strong Wednesday as a system approaches from the west. Winds remain just below small craft levels. A cold front crossing area waters Thursday night will shift the winds to offshore. Surface high pressure quickly passes north of area waters Friday night, restoring onshore for the weekend. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 44 64 55 69 / 0 10 50 90 Pensacola 47 66 59 68 / 0 10 30 90 Destin 47 66 57 68 / 0 10 20 90 Evergreen 35 66 49 67 / 0 0 30 90 Waynesboro 37 64 49 67 / 0 10 50 80 Camden 34 64 47 64 / 0 0 30 80 Crestview 38 66 50 67 / 0 0 20 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.