textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Marine conditions will continue to improve overnight through Monday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week with afternoon highs approaching 80 degrees by midweek.

- We will monitor the potential for fog late this weekend as southerly winds bring increased moisture levels.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Dry weather and increasingly warm temperatures are expected early this week as upper level ridging builds across the area. Models are in fairly good agreement that this ridging will give way to a west southwest upper level flow by mid to late week. Temperatures will continue to warm and become well above normal by late week with highs climbing into the low 80s away from the coast. Rain chances will enter back into the forecast by Thursday/Friday and into the weekend as a cold front will attempt to slowly drift south toward the area. Timing of this front is uncertain however, as its southward progression will be hindered by the upper level WSW flow. It will likely take until next weekend for the front to finally push through the area. This all results in uncertainty in the exact period that will see the highest rain chances.

Dewpoints are forecast to climb into the upper 60s by the late in the week under a persistent light onshore flow. This pattern suggests we will have to monitor for the potential of fog development, including over the marine area. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

MVFR ceilings will persist across the region through Monday morning. Periods of IFR ceilings are likely across interior southwest and south central AL overnight. VFR conditions are expected to return to the area by mid Monday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds late this evening will gradually diminish overnight and become light out of the northeast on Monday. 34/JFB

MARINE

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Offshore flow will gradually diminish overnight into Monday morning as high pressure builds across the area. The Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire over the next few hours. A light onshore flow develops by Tuesday and continues through the remainder of the week as the surface high moves east of the area. 34/JFB

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST Monday for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Advisory until midnight CST tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ631-632- 650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ670-675.