textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Severe storms are possible through sunrise this morning. A strong (EF2+) tornado can not be ruled out near or east of the I-65 corridor.

- HIGH risk of rip currents today for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Gale conditions are expected across much of the coastal waters today in the wake of the strong cold front.

- A freeze is expected across the region early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with the exception of the immediate coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

There is a lot to talk about in the first 24 hours of the forecast, so that will be the focus of this discussion. Here are our latest thoughts regarding the impacts we are concerned about:

Strong to Severe Storms: A strong influx of low level moisture continues to surge northward late this evening with 340+K theta currently spread across much of southeast Mississippi into southwest Alabama along with resultant lower 70s dewpoints as far north as Citronelle in northern Mobile county eastward to Atmore in Escambia county then southeast to near Pensacola, FL. Latest 04z special soundings from both Birmingham, AL (BMX) and Slidell/New Orleans (LIX) indicate very steep lapse rates residing just above a weak capping inversion between the 800-700mb layer. Capping may be slightly stronger over our area but this may be offset some by the increased low level moisture. In addition, hodographs indicate the presence of impressive shear with long cyclonically curved hodographs in place with 30-35 kts within the lowest 1km. Very steep/extreme lapse rates around 8.5 c/km in the layer above the inversion. This environment, though conditional, is potentially quite volatile and would support the potential higher end severe potential, including damaging winds up to 70 mph, hail up to golfballs, and the potential for a few strong tornadoes (EF2+).

The primary evolution is still a bit uncertain as it will greatly depend upon when mid level height falls and associated large scale forcing overspreads the conditionally very unstable and highly sheared environment currently in place which would lift out the remaining capping inversion. Latest high resolution model guidance is suggesting that supercell storms are likely to form along a couple of noted pre-frontal surface troughs. Latest surface analysis as of 0530z places one surface convergence band across interior southwest Alabama near Thomasville southwestward to the Mississippi Gulf Coast near Biloxi. Another convergence band was observed across south-central Alabama near Greenville southward to the western Florida Panhandle just east of Pensacola. As the trough digs southeast over the next few hours, storms should begin to intensify in the vicinity of these pre-frontal convergence bands. There still is some uncertainty even at this late hour regarding the severe potential ahead of the cold front. Much of the latest high resolution model guidance supports this development especially as the western convergence boundary moves east of I-65 after roughly 07z. This would result in the greatest semi-discrete supercell threat across south-central Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle where if supercells materialize would be where potentially strong tornadoes, hail up to golfball size, and wind gusts potentially greater than 70 mph.

Further west, a line of strong to isolated severe storms continue along a strong cold front just to the west of the I-59 corridor in Mississippi as of 06z. These storms have been undercut by cold near surface outflow over the past few hours as overall instability has not been great enough to balance the intense shear where prefrontal dewpoints have only been in the lower 60s and the best forcing aloft has remained just west of the front. This seems to be changing though as storms have started to catch up with the outflow as the QLCS is moving into a more thermodynamically favorable environment and as the upper trough is now starting to overspread the front. Storms appear to be intensifying now within this line and will likely continue to strengthen as they move east across southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama over the next 1 to 3 hours. Severe thunderstorms within the line will be capable of damaging winds up to 70 mph and a few tornadoes, some which could be strong (EF2+), where meso-vorticies can develop within the line where bowing segments allow 0-3 km shear vectors to become more favorably normal to the line. This line should pose a severe threat as it sweeps through the entire area through about sunrise.

Following the passage of the front, much colder temperatures should rush in with temperatures rapidly falling into the 50s. Strong forcing with the sharp upper trough should maintain steep lapse rates and favorably strong shear above the frontal inversion to support the potential for elevated supercells after sunrise across the area, especially along and east of I-65 and along the coast. Here, most unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) remains between 750-1000j/kg along with lapse rates still around 7.5 c/km. Hodographs above the frontal inversion are still long and cyclonically curved with roughly 25-30 kts of shear within this layer. This could support a round of severe hail especially as the greatest instability resides within the favorable hail growth region. Considering the combination of CAPE/Shear/Helicity, would not rule out hail sizes upwards of half dollar to golfball.

After this round of storms moves through between 12z-16z, much colder temperatures will advance southward and then attention will turn to a potential round of convectively induced winter type precipitation. See the main discussion below. /JLH

Wintry Mix Potential This Morning: Believe it or not, there is at least a small potential for a wintry mix to be observed over our far northwestern zones (Wayne/Choctaw/Clarke/Wilcox counties) between 9am-noon. This is due to a band of light precip being driven by 700-500mb forcing in association with the mid level trough. Forecast soundings are supportive of some snow/sleet being mixed in with the light rain in the band. Given warm ground temperatures, surface temps above freezing, and the brief nature of the precip, no impact or accumulation is expected. Just wanted to mention this so nobody is caught off guard if some brief sleet or snow is observed.

Freezing Temperatures: Confidence is high on all but the immediate coastal zones experiencing a freeze early Tuesday morning as the arctic surface high builds in from the west. Lows will drop into the upper 20s far inland with lower 30s along the I-10 corridor. Wind chills will dip into the 20s area wide. Freeze warnings remain in place and a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for the coastal counties. Another Freeze Warning will likely be needed Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as the surface high moves overhead. Wednesday morning lows will likely be similar to Tuesday morning. They could be a few degrees colder with lighter winds expected, however, the potential for some mid to high level clouds brings some uncertainty.

Beach Hazards: A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches today due to surf heights quickly building to 3-4 feet. A strong offshore flow should result in the rip current risk quickly diminishing by late afternoon into tonight with a Low Risk expected through rest of the week.

Rest of the week: No impacts are expected mid to late week. Temperatures will quickly moderate with above normal temps returning by the end of the week into next week. Highs by next weekend will be well into the 80s. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Lower ceilings will continue to overspread the area ahead of a line of strong to severe storms. This line will move across the area through this morning and be east of the area by daybreak. Strong and severe thunderstorms are expected with this line of convection, with gusty damaging winds possible. Southerly winds this evening at 15-20 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots will shift abruptly northwesterly around 20 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots with the passage of the front. Southwesterly low-level wind shear around 40 knots at 2000 feet inland areas is expected ahead of the front from 04-11z. /13

MARINE

Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A strong cold front will push through the coastal waters early this morning. Gale conditions are expected in the wake of the front for a large portion of the marine area through the day today. In fact, the latest data indicates a greater potential for frequent gale force gusts across MS Sound and Mobile Bay through midday. Therefore, we have issued a Gale Warning for those zones from 4am to 1pm. A Gale Warning continues for the for the Gulf waters from 4am til 7pm.

While gale conditions will subside this evening, strong offshore flow will persist through Tuesday morning. Winds and seas are expected to gradually diminish by midweek and becoming more easterly.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Significantly cooler and drier air will move into the region today and Tuesday in the wake of a strong cold front. Afternoon humidity values on Tuesday will drop into the 20 to 25 percent range. We will need to closely monitor for the possibility of a Red Flag Warning. However, the current wind forecast and the national Significant Fire Potential forecast suggests we will stay just below warning criteria. Regardless, breezy northwest winds combined with the low humidity suggests the potential for elevated fire concerns. 34/JFB

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261>264.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201-203-205.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>632.

Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655-670-675.