textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through Sunday, with localized spots potentially reaching 108-110.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through Friday, increasing to numerous to widespread by Sunday into early next week with potential for locally heavy rainfall.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday night through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Weak westerly flow aloft will persist through Friday as ridging remains centered to our south across the eastern Gulf and the Florida peninsula. Seasonably high moisture combined with strong instability will maintain a typical summertime convective pattern through the end of the workweek. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and again on Friday, primarily along the advancing sea breeze as a light onshore flow allows it to progress well inland. Isolated showers and storms are also possible near the coast Friday morning along the land breeze. Any stronger pulse storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

A complex pattern evolution takes shape this weekend into early next week. A large upper high is projected to build across the central and northern CONUS, forcing a positively tilted trough over the Ohio Valley southward into our region along with an east-west oriented surface trough and weak frontal boundary. Rain chances will begin to increase on Saturday, especially inland where PoPs rise to the 40- 60% range. Moisture convergence ahead of the boundary will increase PWATs above the 90th percentile of climatology for Sunday into Monday (potentially exceeding 2.25" in spots). This will favor the development of widespread showers and storms with the potential for localized flooding. The WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday for the entire area. Trends will continue to be monitored for increasing flood potential during the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe.

Any strong to severe thunderstorm potential would be most likely on Sunday afternoon thanks to ample surface heating south of the front. By Monday, cooler temperatures and widespread cloud cover with nearly saturated profiles will likely favor more in the way of overrunning, with the greatest heavy rainfall potential likely developing near the coast, but this will depend on where the boundary sets up.

Confidence decreases by Tuesday as model solutions diverge on whether a the front stalls over the area or shifts offshore. Trends in the guidance suggest the upper trough will eventually close off and retrograde westward along the Gulf Coast beneath the building ridge through the middle of the week. This would return us to a typical onshore summertime flow pattern by midweek.

Temperatures will remain seasonably hot through Sunday, with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90s and peak afternoon heat indices ranging from 100 to 107, with a few localized spots potentially reaching 108 to 110 degrees. Overnight lows will continue to offer little relief, generally in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to around 80 near the coast. Increased cloud cover and widespread rainfall should bring noticeably cooler conditions on Monday and Tuesday, with highs topping in the low to mid 80s or perhaps even upper 70s in some spots, especially over the interior.

At the beaches, a Moderate risk of rip currents develops Friday night and persists through Sunday for all area beaches, continuing into Monday for the Florida beaches. JGC/98

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Predominate VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered convection focused closer to the coast midday/early afternoon will spread inland by mid to late afternoon. These storms could cause brief reductions to MVFR/IFR. Storms are expected to quickly diminish this evening. South to southwest winds of 5-10 kts will diminish and becoming very light tonight. 34/JFB

MARINE

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southerly to southwesterly flow prevails through Sunday, becoming mainly westerly by early next week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet for the weekend into early next week. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms. JGC/98

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 93 76 93 / 10 20 20 50 Pensacola 79 93 80 93 / 20 20 20 40 Destin 81 92 81 92 / 0 20 20 30 Evergreen 73 94 73 93 / 20 30 10 40 Waynesboro 74 95 74 94 / 20 20 10 50 Camden 74 92 74 92 / 20 10 10 40 Crestview 74 94 74 95 / 10 30 10 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.