textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Temperatures will steadily warm through midweek.

- Rain chances will increase for mid to late week, potentially bringing a risk of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed at this time. /13

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Dry conditions are expected to continue through at least Tuesday night as high pressure settles over the Southeast US and upper ridging builds over the Gulf. With winds expected to turn onshore later today, temperatures will continue to warm over the next few days. Highs will increase into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday, with a few upper 80s possible by Wednesday. Lows will also warm from the upper 40s to low 50s this morning to the 60s by Tuesday night.

The forecast becomes rather complicated as we get to Wednesday and the latter half of the week. Looking aloft, northern-stream troughing over the north-central US is expected to phase with southern-stream troughing pushing across the Desert Southwest. As they phase, a diffluent westerly to southwesterly flow pattern develops across portions of the Deep South and into the Tennessee River Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, an associated cold front will start to push southeastward as an upper-level jet ejects to the northeast. Plenty of moisture, forcing, and afternoon instability will allow for showers and storms to develop along the front late Wednesday afternoon and into the evening hours for areas northwest of our CWA. For our local area, subsidence/capping from the upper ridge over the Gulf should help to keep rain chances relatively low throughout the day on Wednesday. Rain chances start to increase as we get to Wednesday night as the aforementioned upper-level jet ejects northeastward, helping to flatten the ridge, resulting in gradual height falls. Here's where the forecast becomes complicated. Ensembles over the past 24-36 hours have been trending toward a much slower front progression as it pushes through our area. This trend is likely due the best diffluence/forcing remaining further to the north and ejecting out of the region much quicker, leaving the front behind as it moves through the area. Originally, the thinking was that the front and its associated storms will move into the area Wednesday night and push offshore sometime late Thursday morning/early Thursday afternoon. Now, the more likely scenario is that the front enters the area Thursday morning and it does not push offshore until sometime Thursday evening/night. If this solution pans out, this rather stark difference in timing could lead to several changes in our overall messaging for midweek. These changes will be described below:

1) Our overall severe risk for Wednesday into Wednesday night would be decreasing, as storms associated with the front may not arrive until very late Wednesday night, or even close to sunrise on Thursday. Displaced forcing and residual subsidence from the upper ridge should help to limit discrete storms from developing ahead of the boundary. If a few discrete storms do manage to develop and move into our northwestern counties Wednesday night, instability looks rather meager due to the overnight timing and poor lapse rates.

2) It is possible that the severe risk could increase for Thursday, as the front serves as a focus for additional storms to develop along during the late morning/afternoon hours as embedded shortwaves pass through the southwesterly flow aloft. A diffluent flow pattern should start to develop as the shortwaves pass overhead. As far as instability, diurnal heating should help to erode away any residual capping left over from the upper ridge, and with dewpoints south of the boundary still in the lower 70s, the overall environment would likely be quite unstable, favoring surface-based convection south of the front. Pairing this with impressive shear values on the order of 50-60 knots, this could lead to the organization of supercells.

3) We will have to keep an eye on the potential for very heavy rainfall on Thursday. As stated earlier, the sagging frontal boundary would serve as a focus for storms to develop along throughout the day on Thursday. Pairing this with very high PWATs (mean ensemble guidance already suggests PWATs to around 1.8-2.0 inches which, when comparing to climatology, is around the 99th percentile), an unstable environment, and winds aloft moving parallel to the front, this would support very high rain rates and training storms, potentially leading to the risk of flash flooding. That being said, antecedent conditions are still quite dry due to the ongoing drought, so at this point I would anticipate any flooding issues to be localized, mainly in urban/poor drainage areas. It should be noted that it is possible that the front stalls along or just south of the coast Thursday night and possibly lingers around the area through Friday and into the weekend. If this happens, continued shortwaves moving within the southwesterly flow aloft and high moisture values along the front would lead to continued heavy rainfall. Confidence in this occurring is very low at this time, but it's just something to keep an eye on at this time.

We will keep an eye on trends over the next day or so and will iron out the details on what to expect for the latter half of the week in upcoming forecast packages.

A Low Risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday, becoming a moderate risk by midweek. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13

MARINE

Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A southerly flow will develop this afternoon and increase Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a cold front. A light northerly flow develops late in the week behind the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 79 55 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 78 60 79 69 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 77 62 78 70 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 81 49 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 80 53 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 80 51 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 82 50 83 61 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.