textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 800 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the 108 to 112 range.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed. /13

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Hot and generally drier conditions are expected through the weekend. Lower rain chances are expected thanks to dry air aloft filtering into the region from the north as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. Boundary layer mixing each afternoon will help lower surface dew points enough to keep heat indices below advisory criteria despite high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s. However, a few localized heat index values of 108-110 cannot be ruled out near the coast where less mixing occurs with the sea breeze. Sunday will be the hotter of the two days for most areas.

Drier thermodynamic profiles will suppress convective development this weekend, with PWATs falling to around 1.5 inches or lower. However, instability will remain quite high, so any sufficient convergence along the sea breeze or confluence bands could still produce an isolated storm or two each afternoon. With the dry air mass in place aloft, DCAPE values will be very high (around 1500 J/kg), so any storm that manages to initiate would carry the potential for strong microburst winds. That said, PoPs remain capped at around 10-20%. It may also be worth noting, several CAMs suggest a decaying MCS dropping southeastward could encroach on our northwestern counties this evening, but confidence is too low at this time to warrant more than 20% PoPs.

The northwest flow regime will become increasingly active next week as moisture returns by Monday, with PWATs approaching 2 inches, then gradually increasing through Thursday as ensemble mean PWATs reach around 2.2 inches. Multiple shortwave impulses rounding the eastern periphery of the strong mid-level ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest will track southeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. While the precise timing and location of individual impulses and associated convection remains uncertain, this general pattern should bring periodic rounds of unsettled weather to the region through the week.

Deterministic guidance is fairly consistent in showing the first prominent shortwave approaching from the northwest during the day on Monday, introducing increased cloud cover and higher rain chances. The next main shortwave looks to impact the region in the Wednesday- Thursday timeframe, potentially bringing a more substantial threat for widespread showers and storms given the deeper moisture in place. Trends will be monitored for any flash flood or severe potential. Even in the absence of these disturbances, ample moisture and instability will favor scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms, primarily focused along the sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions.

Increased cloud cover and rainfall should keep temperatures closer to average next week. Highs are forecast generally in the low to mid 90s with heat indices peaking in the 100-107 range.

At the beaches, a Low risk of rip currents continues through early next week. JGC/98

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 800 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon, mainly along the coast. Brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible in and around showers and thunderstorms. /13

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 95 74 97 74 / 10 0 20 10 Pensacola 93 77 95 78 / 20 10 20 10 Destin 90 79 94 80 / 20 0 20 10 Evergreen 97 71 98 71 / 10 0 10 0 Waynesboro 98 73 99 72 / 0 20 10 10 Camden 96 72 96 71 / 0 10 10 10 Crestview 95 72 98 72 / 20 0 20 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.