textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 608 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- A much drier airmass persists across the area, leading to an elevated fire danger risk through Tuesday.

- A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.

- Rain chances increase by late week and into the upcoming weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to an increased potential for flooding, is possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The forecast remains on track and no updates are needed. SS/97

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The forecast remains fairly straightforward the next few days as dry weather persists through midweek. Afternoon highs top out near or just above normal in the middle to upper 80's through Wednesday, with a few spots touching 90 degrees any given day. Overnight lows follow a steady warming trend as we begin to advect moisture back into the area. One more night of upper 50's to lower 60's exists for the area tonight, with upper 60's inland and lower 70's nearer the coast returning Wednesday night.

Our upper pattern changes quite a bit as we head into late week and the weekend, shifting us from being dry and relatively cool to wet and stormy. A trough split across the gulf from our previous trough will gradually retrograde westward, bringing the area back into a deep southerly fetch of moisture off the gulf. Upper ridging attempts to develop east of this late week, further reinforcing that southerly deep layer flow. This along with several weak shortwaves moving across the area should set the stage for a rather wet period Thursday through this weekend, potentially persisting into early next week. It's difficult to pinpoint any details on rainfall amounts and likewise flooding concerns. However, with atmospheric profiles depicting deep, warm moist air and the expectation for efficient warm rain processes will promote the potential for very heavy rainfall and at least localized flooding concerns with any storms.

Thanks to the strengthening onshore winds late week into the weekend we will see an increase in the rip current risk for our AL and FL panhandle beaches. We go from a Low risk today to a Moderate risk Wednesday. A High risk for strong rip currents follows for Thursday into the weekend. MM/25

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The current light northerly to northeasterly winds become calm overnight. By morning, winds become generally northeasterly near 5 knots inland and 10 knots along the coast. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Light and variable flow continues through Tuesday. A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow develops Wednesday, persisting through the weekend. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the weekend. Small Craft should exercise caution beginning Wednesday night. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 64 89 67 88 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 68 88 72 87 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 69 87 73 86 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 59 90 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 60 90 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 58 89 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 62 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.