textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Dense fog is expected tonight, reducing visibilities to below 1/4 of a mile over land areas and below 1 mile over marine zones. Use extra time and caution when traveling tonight and Tuesday morning.

- Much above normal temperatures will occur Monday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Now through Monday...

An upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast moves off tonight. A closed upper low off the Pacific coast of Mexico moves east into mid week, opening as it shifts an upper ridge over the Plains to over the Southeast. This shortwave trough passes over the Southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. A surface high shifts to over the Carolinas before moving over the Caribbean into mid week, resulting in a more organized onshore flow over the northern Gulf coast, bringing Gulf moisture inland. The tightest pressure gradient is being advertised over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday before shifting east over the western Southeast. Guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising into the 1.1"-1.3" range, with higher levels north of the forecast area along a cold front sagging south over the Southeast. Overrunning over this cold front will provide the best chance for precipitation mid week. Instability is marginal at best, so am not expecting any rumbles to mix in. For the latter half of the week through the weekend, guidance is advertising a stronger shortwave passing over the Southeast over the coming weekend. Moisture levels see an uptick into the weekend, into the 1.3"-1.5" range. Instability has crept up in the guidance, especially later Saturday night into Sunday. Winds shear is on the decent side, with Bulk Wind Shear around 45kts. Mid level lapse rates in the 6.5-7.0C range is also indicated. Wind profiles on model soundings show a linear profile, limiting any spinners. Will need to monitor, though, with plenty of time for ingredients to change.

We are still looking at fog issues tonight into mid week. With warmer, moist flow over cooler waters (water temperatures in the 50s to low 60s) over protected and near shore waters, along with modest low level flow, increasing chances of dense fog is expected. Am anticipating Dense Fog Advisories for land and protected/near shore waters continuing into mid week.

Temperatures above seasonal norms are expected through the forecast, with high temperatures in the 70s over most of the area (lower where the fog hangs in longer closer to the coast). Some cooling occurs Sunday and Monday as the coming system moves through. Low temperatures in the 50s are expected over most of the area through the week.

Modest onshore flow through the week will keep onshore swell low. Even with an increasing tidal range, a Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected. Onshore flow increases in the coming weekend, with the Rip Risk rising to Moderate to High. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Spotty dense fog with VLIFR conditions is expected to become widespread across the area overnight, then improve to VFR by/during mid morning. Calm or light southerly winds become southerly/southwesterly around 10 knots on Tuesday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Light to at times moderate onshore flow will become offshore for a short period late Wednesday into Thursday as a weak front sags south across area waters. Development of dense fog is expected over near shore and protected waters tonight into Wednesday as warm Gulf air flows over cooler Gulf waters. Onshore flow returns by the Saturday and strengthens to moderate to strong over the weekend as a system approaches from the west. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 56 76 54 73 / 0 20 0 10 Pensacola 57 74 54 70 / 10 10 10 10 Destin 59 71 54 69 / 10 20 10 10 Evergreen 55 76 47 73 / 10 20 10 10 Waynesboro 56 76 50 71 / 10 20 10 10 Camden 57 74 48 70 / 20 20 10 10 Crestview 54 77 49 74 / 0 10 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655.