textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 549 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the week.

- Fog development is possible each night this week, especially the middle to latter part of the week. Fog could become dense in spots.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft will transition to a southwesterly flow pattern by Wednesday as an anomalously strong upper ridge builds over the eastern US/western Atlantic. This ridge will likely anchor itself in place through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Similarly at the surface, high pressure over the Appalachians will shift eastward and settle over the western Atlantic. With its ridge axis draped across northern to central GA/AL/MS, a persistent southeasterly flow pattern will prevail over the local area throughout the period. At this point, with how strong this deep layer ridging is, I am not anticipating any cold fronts to make it into our local area through at least next weekend. With that being the case, temperatures are expected to remain well above average throughout the period. By mid to late week, highs will rise into the low to mid 80s with lows only dropping into the low to mid 60s (some upper 60s possible).

In addition to temperatures, rain chances look to also be on the increase by Friday and into next weekend as onshore flow, both aloft and at the surface, will help to advect better moisture values into the area from the Gulf (PWATs increasing from 0.8-1.0 inches to around 1.2-1.4 inches). There are still some questions with regards to overall forcing over our area as the best ascent looks to be positioned over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, while we remain under the influence of the upper ridge. If this trend continues and the ridge manages to keep the best forcing to our west, I would not be surprised to see subsidence win out and our overall rain chances decrease as we get closer to the Friday through Sunday timeframe. On the other hand, if the ridge is a bit weaker and shortwaves are able to get closer to our local area, then this could lead to higher rain chances especially over our western zones. We'll keep an eye on trends and will adjust PoPs accordingly over the coming days.

With the increase in moisture, as well as ridging aloft, and calm surface winds at night, fog development will continue to be possible each night throughout the period. Although we may see some patchy fog tonight and possibly some better coverage on Tuesday night, the best chances for dense fog development, as well as possible sea fog formation, look to start Wednesday night when dew points surge into the mid to upper 60s and winds just above the surface are light enough to prevent boundary layer mixing.

A Low Risk of rip currents continues through tonight, becoming a Moderate Risk for Tuesday and through the remainder of the week. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR flight categories will occur today and tonight, with the exception of areas of fog forming, possibly dense, after midnight across southeast Mississippi and west of the Alabama River over interior southwest Alabama. Light and variable winds will become southeasterly 5-10 knots after mid-morning, becoming light southeasterly this evening. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1250 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly flow pattern will prevail throughout the week. Winds will generally be lighter at night and stronger during the day. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 58 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 58 72 58 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 70 58 72 60 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 80 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 79 55 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 78 54 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 79 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.