textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Near record highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected this week. With many areas still without power and recovery efforts from Hurricane Isaias ongoing, these temperatures could lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses.

UPDATE

Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The forecast remains on track as we expect record to near record high temperatures this afternoon between 88-93 degrees inland areas under sunny skies, with middle 80s along the coast. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

High pressure continues to build into the area. It is expected to anchor itself directly over the local area through midweek before lifting away from the region to the northeast. Subsidence from this high, as well as a very dry airmass in place (PWATs between 0.7 and 1.0 inch) will give way to sunny skies, very warm highs, and cool lows through much of the week. Highs throughout the week will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. As stated in yesterday's discussion, these highs may get close to, if not beat, our records for this time of year. In fact, looking specifically at today (October 12th), the record high for KMOB is 89. Current forecast has a high of 91, with MOS guidance suggesting that we could even get slightly higher. NBM ensemble probabilities also give a roughly 40-60% chance of breaking the record. The good news is, that heat indices should remain close to the actual temperatures due to afternoon dewpoints generally in the 50s and 60s. That being said, numerous locations which were impacted by Hurricane Isaias are still without power. These very warm temperatures, along with little to no cloud cover to provide relief from the sun, could lead to an increased risk for heat- related illnesses. Everyone part of the recovery process is urged to take frequent breaks in the shade and drink plenty of water, especially if engaging in strenuous activity. Lows through Tuesday night will generally range from the upper 50s to low 60s inland to the mid 60s along the coast, increasing by a few degrees by midweek. Additionally, saturated boundary layer conditions, calm winds, and clear skies may help to promote patchy fog development each morning this week. By Friday and into the upcoming weekend, longer ranged models continue to suggest that a cold front will attempt to sweep through the local area. Limited moisture return ahead of the front should keep rain out of the forecast. Behind it, a much cooler and even drier airmass filters into the region from the north. Highs may drop into the 70s, along with lows in the 50s. A Low Risk of Rip Currents will be in place through the week. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight, with the exception of patchy fog in low-lying and other fog prone areas after midnight. Light northerly to northwesterly winds this morning will shift southwesterly to southerly at around 5-10 knots across southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama during the afternoon, while remaining light and variable interior areas. /22

MARINE

Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A Small Craft Advisory or Gale Warning will likely be required late in the week as a powerful cold front passes through the region. Until then, a diurnal flow cycle will occur through Friday with an offshore flow developing late each night into the morning hours then becoming onshore near the coast during the afternoon. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 62 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 89 66 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 87 69 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 91 58 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 92 58 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 90 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 90 58 91 59 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.