textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potentially resulting in localized flash flooding remain possible through Monday.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will occur today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually push offshore this morning with stratiform precipitation remaining over much of the area through early this afternoon. Generally anticipate this to continue shifting offshore with light to moderate precipitation coming to an end by mid afternoon. Dry weather conditions should prevail in the wake of this into this evening as the area remains convectively overturned.

The anticipation is for mostly dry conditions to prevail for much of the day Sunday, with perhaps an isolated shower or storm during the afternoon hours associated with peak heating. Some guidance suggests another MCS and associated shortwave potentially moving towards the area from the northwest late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. However, shear will be generally weaker and we will likely struggle to have appreciable moisture return ahead of this, so current expectation is for this to decay prior to reaching the forecast area and at best light to moderate showers and storms moving through Sunday evening. Attention turns once again towards the next more potent shortwave and attendant cold front Monday morning into the afternoon hours. Forecast guidance seems divergent on the exact evolution of things as the quality of moisture return remains in question owing to the preceding days of strong cold pools shifting offshore shunting the warm front well south of the local marine waters. If this warm front can make it back onshore, we could see some severe threat materialize as this system rolls through. This will remain something to monitor over the next 36 hours or so as CAM guidance has generally struggled substantially with the evolution of each shortwave these past couple days and their respective convective evolutions.

What we see these next 48 hours is probably going to be it for any appreciable rainfall for the foreseeable future. Once we get past Monday, the chances for rain drop precipitously and we return to a dry weather forecast Tuesday through the end of the week. Temperatures return to near or above normal for highs in the 80's and lows generally stay in the upper 50's and lower 60's. The rip current risk remains a Moderate for today and Monday, with a Low risk expected the rest of the period. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

IFR and MVFR ceilings mostly prevail this morning, along with localized LIFR ceilings, ahead a large storm complex moving into the area from the west. Reductions to visibility to IFR and MVFR levels are expected with these showers and thunderstorms, and could briefly drop to LIFR levels in some of the heavier activity. Rain chances start to diminish this afternoon and should largely dissipate by early evening. VFR conditions will likely return for the overnight hours. Winds will generally be southeasterly to southerly today, although they may briefly turn northerly in the wake of this morning's storms. /22

MARINE

Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A light to moderate onshore will abruptly turn to an offshore flow this afternoon as a line of showers and thunderstorms sweeps through the area. Winds will then be erratic late this afternoon and evening as the convection lingers before a light onshore flow resumes going into Sunday. A light southwesterly to westerly flow on Monday proceeding a cold front will shift to a moderate to occasionally strong northerly Monday night behind the front. Winds may increase to advisory levels briefly on Monday night. A light to moderate northeasterly flow Tuesday morning will diminish going into midweek. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 67 83 68 82 / 40 50 50 60 Pensacola 69 81 70 81 / 30 50 50 70 Destin 70 80 70 80 / 30 40 40 80 Evergreen 63 84 64 81 / 40 60 60 60 Waynesboro 64 83 64 79 / 40 50 60 50 Camden 62 82 63 78 / 30 60 60 60 Crestview 65 85 65 83 / 40 60 40 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.