textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 - Tropical Storm Watch in effect for coastal zones and waters of the western Florida Panhandle. In addition to potential tropical storm force winds, locally heavy rainfall may be possible near the coast through mid week.

- High risk of rip currents begins this evening for western Florida Panhandle and Alabama beaches.

- Heat Advisory in effect for southeast Mississippi from 10 am until 7 pm on today.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The current forecast is on track with no updates planned. Some patchy fog has developed over the northeastern counties of the forecast area. Visibilities overall remain high enough for no dense fog advisory being needed. Subsidence outside of developing TD2/Bertha along with a dip in moisture levels into the 1.8'-2.0' will keep PoPs low, limiting to isolated to scattered coverage this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is still in effect this afternoon for southeast Mississippi, with enough subsidence combined with a bit high moisture over the area for heat indices to rise into the 108 to 110 degree range. /16

..BEACH FORECAST

Dangerous and life-threatening beach conditions are expected tonight through mid week. The rip current risk will increase to a HIGH for our Florida and Alabama beaches Monday night which will last through at Thursday. Guidance shows increasing surf above 5 feet by Tuesday morning and quickly rises through the evening to peak at 10-12 feet which lasts through Wednesday afternoon. A High Surf Warning will be needed in subsequent forecast packages as the event draws closer.

SS/97

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

At 6am/11z, conditions across the forecast area ranged from IFR due to fog over the northeastern quarter due to fog to VFR elsewhere. After this fog mixes out, general VFR conditions are expected, with local drops to MVFR levels this afternoon as isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. Light northerly winds will gradually shift to northeasterly through the forecast, with wind magnitudes rising to around 10 knots as TD2/Bertha organizes and moves towards the northern Gulf coast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression Two is located southwest of the Big Bend of Florida, and is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm today. The system is expected to gradually turn west just south of the northern Gulf coast over the next several days. Moderate northeasterly winds today will shift generally easterly on Tuesday as the tropical system moves west. Waves with this system peak at 10 to 15 feet Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. Strong winds will impact the nearshore waters and gale force winds offshore. As the system departs Wednesday night, light southerly to southwesterly winds continue through the weekend. SS/97

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 95 75 94 77 / 40 20 50 30 Pensacola 94 77 91 79 / 40 30 70 60 Destin 90 77 89 80 / 60 40 80 70 Evergreen 94 73 91 75 / 20 10 50 20 Waynesboro 96 75 96 76 / 20 10 20 0 Camden 94 74 91 76 / 20 10 30 10 Crestview 92 74 90 76 / 50 30 70 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Tropical Storm Watch for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ202-204-206.

High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.