textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Moderate to strong winds over the marine area could create hazardous conditions for small craft Friday night into Saturday.

- The rip current risk will steadily increase Friday evening into Saturday, potentially becoming a High risk for life threatening rip currents Friday night into Saturday.

- A low end threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is possible from near daybreak Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon for much of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

For the start of the period, two southern stream upper-level shortwaves are expected to pass across the local area; the first on Friday afternoon/evening and the second late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. As these two shortwaves move overhead, a weak surface low pressure system attempts to develop over the southeast US Friday night into Saturday. This low will push into the western Atlantic by Saturday night, helping to bring an associated cold front through the area.

Dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday morning. By the afternoon, rain chances will start to increase as the first shortwave approaches and passes overhead. This shortwave will help to advect in a plume of deep-layer moisture from the west, increasing PWATs from around 0.5 inches Friday morning to around 1.2- 1.5 inches by the afternoon. This, along with adequate height falls, should allow for isolated to scattered rain to develop during the afternoon hours. Rainfall should remain light and no thunderstorms are anticipated with this first round due to a lack of instability/poor lapse rates. We could see a brief lull in activity Friday evening as the first shortwave moves passed us.

The second shortwave looks to pass over the local area sometime late Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon, with rain chances likely increasing during the early morning hours as it approaches. To start, guidance suggests that we should still be rather stable as shower activity picks up a little after midnight. Throughout the morning hours, we should start to destabilize as lapse rates begin to steepen and especially once diurnal heating commences after sunrise. This should allow for convection to intensify over time, and with deep layer shear up at around 40 knots during the morning hours, increasing to nearly 50 knots by the afternoon, this could result in the organization a few strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. Modeled soundings/hodographs also suggest long, straightline hodographs, ample CAPE in the hail growth zone, and weak storm relative inflow, suggesting that storms with a deep enough updraft could support a large hail threat. As we get closer to the coast, modeled hodographs gain some curvature in the lower levels, with 0-1km SRH values up to as high as 150 m2/s2 in spots. This paired with the aforementioned weak storm relative inflow, and 0-3km CAPE values increasing to around 100-150 J/kg, could result in a few mini-spinny type storms resulting in a limited tornado threat over coastal counties. With all that being said, and although the environment seems rather supportive of severe weather, the biggest question that is keeping the severe threat limited at this time is the overall strength and timing of the shortwave aloft. If the shortwave is a little quicker and weaker, there will be more of a mismatch between the better forcing and the favorable environment for severe weather, leading to a lower risk (or potentially no risk at all). A stronger, yet slower shortwave would yield a better overlap of forcing and the favorable environment, leading to an increased risk. Right now, we have a Marginal Risk of severe weather for areas along and east of I-65 on Saturday. We will monitor trends closely as it gets closer. Storm chances should decrease from west to east by mid to late Saturday afternoon after the shortwave axis passes overhead.

After the front passes through, high pressure builds in, allowing for a drier and slightly cooler airmass to filter in from the north for Sunday and Monday. Highs will rise into the 60s both days, with lows Sunday night dropping into the upper 30s inland to the mid 40s along the coast. We gradually warm into the low to mid 70s for highs and 50s for lows by midweek as the high slides into the western Atlantic. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through Friday afternoon. The risk quickly increases to High by late Friday evening as onshore flow strengthens and surf builds out ahead of the front. This High Risk continues through Saturday before dropping to a Moderate Risk Saturday night and eventually a Low Risk by Sunday. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A general light to moderate westerly flow will continue through tonight. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday and strengthens to a moderate to strong flow through Saturday. Winds shift out of the northwest late Saturday as a cold front moves through. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our local Gulf waters from 6 PM Friday through 6 PM Saturday, and for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound from 6 PM Friday through 6 AM Saturday. The offshore flow diminishes on Sunday then becomes southeasterly on Monday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 48 70 61 74 / 0 20 60 60 Pensacola 52 69 63 72 / 0 20 60 80 Destin 54 69 62 71 / 0 20 60 80 Evergreen 42 70 57 72 / 0 30 70 80 Waynesboro 44 69 58 71 / 0 30 70 40 Camden 43 67 57 69 / 0 30 80 60 Crestview 42 70 57 73 / 0 20 60 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-675.