textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Rain chances will increase for mid to late week, potentially bringing a risk of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday.

- The risk for strong rip currents increases midweek, with a High risk of rip currents possible across Florida Panhandle beaches Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A large, positively tilted upper trof evolves through Wednesday to extend from the Great Lakes region to across the Plains and down to the Baja area. The upper trof becomes situated mostly over the eastern half of the CONUS through Thursday, and in the process broadens and takes on a more meridional orientation. In response to this changing pattern, a surface low currently located over the Plains moves well off to the north and brings a trailing cold front into northern Mississippi and near far northern Alabama by late Wednesday afternoon. There are timing uncertainties with when the frontal boundary continues through the forecast area, but currently this appears to occur during the day on Thursday into the early evening hours. Deep layer moisture increases substantially as the front approaches, with precipitable water values trending to around 2 inches during the frontal passage. Dry conditions are expected over the area through Wednesday morning, then have gone with mainly chance to good chance pops west of I-65 Wednesday afternoon. Similar pops follow for Wednesday evening then trend to likely to categorical pops for the entire area on Thursday. While the movement of the front will be somewhat slow, 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50-60 knots are indicated along with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg Wednesday afternoon and night generally west of I-65. On Thursday, MLCAPE values as high as around 2000 J/kg by the afternoon hours.

SPC currently has a marginal to slight risk of severe storms mainly west of I-65 for the afternoon into overnight hours. Anticipate that at a similar risk will be possible for Thursday, depending on how the pattern plays out. The frontal boundary is expected to stall across the northern Gulf Thursday night then become oriented close to the coast for Friday while a series of shortwaves move across the area. Have gone with likely pops for most of the area Thursday night with similar pops for Friday, except for higher near the coast. The front lifts off to the north as a warm front on Saturday and much of the eastern states upper trof moves off into the Atlantic. Another large upper trof evolves over the central states on Sunday then progresses into the eastern states Monday into Tuesday, and in the process brings another cold front through the forecast area early next week. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for Saturday with chance pops for Sunday, then chance to likely pops follow for Monday. A low risk of rip currents is expected for tonight into Tuesday night, then a moderate risk follows for Wednesday. A moderate to high risk is expected on Thursday, with the higher risk for the western Florida panhandle beaches, then anticipate a moderate risk for Friday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13

MARINE

Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A light to moderate southerly flow will develop today through Thursday ahead of a cold front. A light to moderate offshore flow develops late in the week behind the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 80 66 84 70 / 0 0 20 30 Pensacola 78 69 82 73 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 77 69 80 72 / 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 83 61 88 67 / 0 0 20 40 Waynesboro 83 63 85 67 / 10 0 60 70 Camden 82 62 85 67 / 0 10 40 70 Crestview 81 61 86 67 / 0 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.