textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 - A MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue the first half of the week for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, becoming a HIGH risk on Wednesday.

- Periods of showers and storms will affect the area through the week with an increasing risk of flooding issues.

- Moderate to strong winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft from Wednesday night through Thursday night.

..THROUGH SUNDAY

A complex pattern continues for Wednesday through Friday, with a broad upper trof pattern over much of the northern CONUS taking on a more meridional orientation over the eastern states on Friday. An associated surface low over the northern Plains moves off across the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada and brings a frontal boundary down into northern MS/AL by Friday morning. Meanwhile, a well defined shortwave trof oriented near the Texas coast is expected to drift slowly into the southeast states through Thursday before becoming absorbed into the eastern states upper trof pattern. A surface low associated with the shortwave trof, which may have tropical characteristics, is expected to move northeast along the Texas coast into Louisiana through Thursday. Please see the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding this potential tropical system. There is uncertainty with the trajectory/evolution of the surface low past this point, but it appears that the system may continue across the forecast region on Friday, with the frontal boundary then moving into the forecast area Friday night. Continuing into the weekend, the frontal boundary will be over the southern portion of the forecast area on Saturday, then dissipates with a return flow becoming established on Sunday.

Went with likely to categorical pops for Wednesday through Friday with this active pattern, then chance to likely pops follow for Saturday with the frontal boundary over the area. Am expecting chance pops for Sunday. The potential for heavy rainfall looks to increase especially for Thursday into Friday as the frontal boundary approaches and the potential surface low traverses the area. Additional rainfall amounts from Wednesday through Friday night look to range from 2.0-4.5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Soil conditions are anticipated to be very moist by Wednesday, and this additional rainfall will pose a risk of flooding, especially for Thursday and Friday when the heaviest rains are expected. WPC has a marginal risk of flooding for most of the area on Wednesday, then transitions to a slight risk for the entire area on Friday which aligns well with the potential for heavy rainfall.

On top of the flooding risks, will need to monitor for the potential for strong to severe storms on Thursday as a strong series of shortwaves move across the area with the 850 mb jet increasing to 30-40 knots and MLCAPE values potentially reaching 2500-3500 J/kg. In addition, P-ETSS guidance shows that water levels could approach 1.7 ft MHHW around Mobile Bay Wednesday afternoon, and around 2 ft MHHW on Thursday from late morning into the early evening. Lower values of near 1-1.5 ft MHHW are expected elsewhere such as Dauphin Island and along the western Florida panhandle. Will need to monitor these time periods for potential minor coastal flooding. /29 /98 /97

BEACH FORECAST - The rip current risk will remain MODERATE and continue through mid week as we have dominant onshore flow. RCMOS shows rip current risk increasing rapidly to HIGH for our beaches on Wednesday morning into the afternoon. NWPS also shows increasing wave action to 4-6 feet by midweek which may need a High Surf Advisory in the coming days. SS/97

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the afternoon at area TAF sites. Brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities can be expected in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing later this afternoon MVFR to IFR conditions are possible overnight into Tuesday morning as additional rain is expected to move into the area. /13

MARINE

Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds become southwesterly tonight then gradually trend to a moderate to strong southerly flow by Wednesday night. The onshore flow transitions to a light to moderate southwesterly flow on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for much of the marine area from Wednesday night through Thursday night. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 81 72 86 / 70 90 70 80 Pensacola 76 85 76 87 / 60 90 80 80 Destin 77 86 76 86 / 50 80 80 80 Evergreen 70 78 69 85 / 80 100 80 90 Waynesboro 70 76 70 85 / 90 90 40 80 Camden 69 76 68 84 / 90 100 60 80 Crestview 72 82 71 85 / 60 90 80 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.