textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 - Tropical Storm Warning for coastal zones and nearshore waters of Alabama and all offshore waters. Tropical Storm Watch in effect for coastal zones and nearshore waters of Florida. Storm Surge Watch in effect for coastal Alabama. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible near the coast through mid week.

- Dangerous and life-threatening beach conditions expected through mid week. High risk of rip currents for the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama beaches through Thursday. High Surf Warning in effect starting Tuesday afternoon into early evening along all beaches.

- Heat Advisory in effect for southeast Mississippi until 7 pm Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Through Wednesday night...Multiple hazards remain in effect as Tropical Storm Bertha begins progressing across our offshore marine waters. Bertha currently sits due south of the western Florida Panhandle as of early this afternoon. Outer rain bands continue to push onshore, bringing brief heavy rains and gusty winds through tonight and Wednesday. Bertha briefly jogged north this morning but has resumed its westerly course, with a slightly broader tropical storm force wind field to its northeast. Given this, the Tropical Storm Warning was expanded to include coastal portions of the Florida Panhandle. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for coastal communities and adjacent marine waters through Wednesday afternoon.

In addition to this, there will be multiple coastal hazards in place over the next 24 to 48 hours. A High Risk of rip currents remains in place for all beaches through Thursday evening. A High Surf Warning will remain in effect through early Thursday morning. Surf heights of 8 to 11 feet are expected, with the highest surf heights reaching coastal portions of the Florida Panhandle by this evening, and portions of the Alabama coast during the overnight hours. These will gradually subside Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The high surf heights and high rip currents will result in hazardous beach conditions. Residents and tourists are strongly encouraged to stay out of the water. Minor coastal flooding is also expected owing to the strong onshore winds associated with Bertha. The Storm Surge Watch has been replaced with a Coastal Flood Advisory for the Alabama coast including Mobile Bay, eastward through Escambia County in the Florida Panhandle through Thursday morning. The expectation is for minor inundation of 1 to 3 feet above normally dry ground during periods of high tide late tonight into Wednesday morning and potentially Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The high surf heights combined with the minor coastal flooding will likely result in minor beach erosion.

Given the lopsided nature of Bertha thanks to strong northerly wind shear, a good chunk of the area over southeast Mississippi into interior southwest and south- central Alabama will see plenty of sunshine allowing for temperatures to warm into the lower 90's for most locations. Higher temperatures and dewpoints present across southeast Mississippi will continue to support heat advisory criteria heat indices around 108 the rest of this afternoon, with the rest of the area seeing heat indices top out in the 100 to 107 range today. Heat indices will be generally in that 100 to 107 range areawide again Wednesday. MM/25

Thursday Through Friday...As the remains of Bertha continue to move off on the south side of an upper ridge over the Southern Plains, whilst the upper ridge builds east over the Southeast. A surface ridge develops over the northern Gulf. Guidance is advertising post tropical system drier air moving over the north-central Gulf, trying to work its way inland. A post system boundary is left over the forecast area, limiting the northward spread of this drier air. The main effect of this drier air is a decrease in PoPs over northern Gulf waters, but leaving scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over inland area, mainly north of Highway 84. High temperatures around seasonal norms (upper 80s to low 90s) are expected, though the high moisture levels keep overnight lows at well above seasonal norm levels (mid to upper 70s). The more seasonal high temperatures keep max heat indices below Heat Advisory levels, topping out in the 100-107 degree range both days.

Saturday on, a mean upper trough digs along the east coast, shifting the upper ridge west a bit, with a bit drier airmass moving south over the Southeast as the surface boundary north of the forecast area moves south over the forecast area. PoPs drop to near zero west of the Alabama, with a few afternoon showers and thunder still possible east by the coming week. Temperatures closer to the upper ridge ( west of the Alabama River) rise to well above seasonal norms, topping out near 100 by Monday. East of the Alabama, the temperature rise is less dramatic and about 5 degrees less. Low temperatures see a bit of a climb, to the mid/upper 70s by Monday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, The High Risk of Rip Currents eases to a low to moderate Friday on as conditions settle over the Gulf. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

As TS Bertha passes south of the northern Gulf coast, conditions along the I-10 corridor will deteriorate, with low end MVFR CIGs, and easterly winds 20kts and gusty. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will affect operations into Wednesday. Along and north of Highway 84 corridor, light winds around 10 knots with generally VFR conditions are expected /16

MARINE

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

TS Tropical Storm Bertha will move west along the coast in the offshore waters through Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds will impact the Gulf waters Tuesday through Wednesday evening. Waves with this system peak at 10 to 15 feet Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening before subsiding. As the system departs Wednesday night, light southerly to southwesterly winds continue through the weekend. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 94 76 91 77 / 30 40 70 60 Pensacola 90 78 89 79 / 80 90 70 50 Destin 88 80 89 81 / 90 90 70 50 Evergreen 90 74 90 74 / 50 30 60 30 Waynesboro 96 75 95 75 / 0 0 20 20 Camden 90 75 90 75 / 10 10 40 10 Crestview 89 75 89 76 / 90 80 80 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ263>266.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ202-204-206.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202.

High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.