textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Moderate to strong northeast winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft through Monday.

- A High Risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches is in effect through Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

A low pressure system off the coast of the Carolinas lifts slowly northward through Tuesday night then is absorbed into a large upper trof which forms mainly along the East Coast states and down into the eastern Gulf through Thursday. A highly amplified upper ridge meanwhile evolves generally across the central states then slowly begins to work into the eastern states through Saturday. A large surface ridge persists over the forecast area through the period for the most part, and the overall pattern will promote a deep layer easterly to northeasterly flow over the region. Deep layer moisture remains limited, and anticipate dry conditions to continue through Saturday. Lows tonight through Thursday night will mostly range from the mid 40s well inland to the lower/mid 50s at the coast, with a modest trend warmer by Saturday night to range from the mid/upper 40s inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 70s then gradually trend to the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s by Friday, with similar values following for Saturday. A High Risk of rip currents is expected through Monday night, with a moderate risk for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A low risk is anticipated for Wednesday and Thursday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through Monday morning. East to northeast winds 10-15 knots diminish to around 5 knots or less this evening, then increase to 5-10 knots Monday morning. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Moderate to strong northeasterly winds become a light to moderate flow during Monday afternoon. Small craft may need to occasionally exercise caution over bays and sounds through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until noon Monday for the near shore waters and until 4 pm Monday for the 20-60 nm portion to allow sufficient time for winds and seas to subside. A light to moderate northeasterly flow, occasionally stronger well offshore during the overnight hours, prevails for Monday night through Wednesday. /29

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Afternoon relative humidity values should remain above critical levels on Monday and Tuesday, although will drop to around 25% over portions of southeast Mississippi on Tuesday but will not satisfy other criteria for a Red Flag Warning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 48 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 54 75 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 56 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 44 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 44 73 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 44 70 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 46 73 47 76 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Monday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for GMZ670-675.