textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Moderate to strong northeast winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over most of the marine area Friday night into Monday morning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas from Saturday through Sunday night.

- Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.

UPDATE

Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed. /13

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Now through Saturday night, a mean upper trough remains located along the East Coast into the weekend, with an upper ridge stretching north along the Mississippi River. A nor'easter located off the Mid Atlantic region moves off, with additional shortwave energy moving into the mean trough. This energy organizes into a closed system off the Carolina coast, which then meanders south to over the southern tip of Florida by Saturday night. An associated surface low is slow to develop, eventually forming a weak low over the Caribbean. The pressure gradient along the East Coast to Gulf tightens as a surface high organizes over the Mid-Atlantic region, bringing increasing northeasterly flow over the Southeast and associated waters. A drier airmass over the forecast area and nearby for the weekend is maintained over the period. The forecast remains dry, but increasing northeasterly winds will may an increase in the risk of fire issues when combined with lower daytime relative humidities. The increasing northerly flow also brings a bit cooler airmass, with high temperatures falling closer to seasonal norms for the weekend. The ridge west of the forecast area will help to create a west to east gradient of temperatures, with higher temperatures over western portions of the forecast area, cooler east. Around 80 east to low 80s west fall into the mid 70s east/upper 70s west by Saturday. The dry airmass will help overnight radiational cooling, with low temperatures remaining below seasonal norms, especially well inland. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to mid 50s along and south of the I-10 corridor expected.

Sunday through Wednesday sees a stream of shortwave energy moving through a mean upper trough over the western Conus and over the upper ridge, shifting the ridge south, and a weak shortwave trough passing over the Southeast Wednesday. With little to no moisture return over the Southeast as the surface high over the eastern Conus is maintained, a dry forecast continues. High temperatures see a rise to well above seasonal norms through the extended, and low temperatures remaining below seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is maintained through the rest of the week. With the tightening pressure gradient over the Gulf, increasing northeast to easterly winds will bring increased swell to area beaches and a return of High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend into the coming week. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Light to moderate northeasterly winds will continue through Friday. Moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds develop Friday night and linger into the weekend. Wind gusts may approach gale force mainly well offshore Saturday night and Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for much of the marine area starting Friday and running until ending at some point on Monday. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 53 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 80 58 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 78 59 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 80 47 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 81 47 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 78 47 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 81 49 79 47 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.