textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- While Red Flag criteria is not anticipated to be met, dry weather conditions, low afternoon relative humidity, and gusty winds may result in some elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon.

- Strong winds will continue over the marine waters creating hazardous conditions for small craft through early this afternoon.

- A freeze is expected across the region early this morning and Wednesday morning, with the exception of the immediate coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Our active weather pattern is coming to an end as high pressure and upper level ridging builds into the region. Dry weather conditions will prevail throughout the rest of the week. The main concerns for the next 24 to 36 hours will be for freezing temperatures early this morning and again Wednesday morning, along with some elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. The rip current risk across our beaches will drop to a Low risk today through the rest of the week.

Temperatures continue to drop this morning with most locations already in the upper 30's to lower 40's. The anticipation is for a near area-wide freeze this morning outside of the immediate coast as temperatures fall into the upper 20's and lower 30's. Temperatures will remain below freezing for roughly 3 to 6 hours, shortest duration nearer the coast and longer over the interior. We'll likely see similar temperatures for tonight into Wednesday morning as well as similar durations. Temperatures follow a steady warming trend throughout the rest of the week once again reaching the upper 70's to lower 80's by the end of the week.

While we are not expected to meet Red Flag Warning criteria across the area given weaker 20 foot winds, we will see low afternoon relative humidity values in the 20% to 25% range in combination with gusty afternoon winds around 15 to 20mph. This combined with ongoing drought should help foster some elevated fire weather concerns for this afternoon. MM/25

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Strong offshore flow continues to gradually diminish this morning into this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through daybreak for our bays and sounds, lingering over the 0 to 60 nautical mile waters through 1pm. Winds and seas gradually diminishing into midweek becoming more easterly. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 55 34 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 55 38 59 44 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 55 40 60 46 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 54 28 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 52 31 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 50 29 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 56 28 63 35 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>264.

FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201-203-205.

MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650- 655-670-675.