textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Additional rounds of light to moderate rain will occur over the weekend and mainly be focused near and southeast of the I-65 corridor.

- A strong cold front makes passage across the area Sunday night into early Monday morning, resulting in hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for late Sunday night into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

06.12Z upper air analysis reflects a persistent west southwest flow at high levels of which embedded in the flow is a steady stream of clouds all the way from northern Mexico to across the deep south to off the Mid-Atlantic. In the near term, passage of subtle mid level impulses support bands of light, to perhaps moderate rains moving through under a cool dome of high pressure that moves east of the area through tonight. There is also an indication that patchy fog will be developing late in the night too as short range ensembles indicates an upward trend in probabilities of occurrence more focused north of the coast. But considering the uncertainties, went ahead and mentioned patchy late night fog to the coast as well. A strong cold front is progged to dive southward out of the Plains tonight and approach the local area later in the day Sunday before making rapid passage through the area Sunday night. Will maintain chances of rain Sunday and Sunday night which will be ending from west to east following the frontal passage. Rain-free Monday through Wednesday. Daily highs mostly in the 55 to 60 degree range Monday and Tuesday before moderating back into the upper 60's/lower 70's by Thursday. Coldest nights this period Monday and Tuesday Nights. Overnight lows Monday night plunge to freezing up along and north of the US Highway 84 corridor. From there, lower to mid 30's to I-10 and upper 30's to lower 40's coast. Tuesday night mid 30's interior to lower to mid 40's coast. Lows gradually moderate Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Next frontal passage late in the week brings a brief return to rain chances ahead of it. Following its passage, temperatures trend downward to start the new weekend.

Rip current risk looks to be low through Wednesday. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

An area of isentropic upglide created low end MVFR to LIFR conditions will sag south over the forecast area through the forecast. Light rain mixed in will bring local rises in conditions this afternoon into this evening before the rain moves off. Am expecting operations to be impacted later tonight into Sunday as VISBYs drop. Winds are expected to be the easiest portion of the forecast, with northeast to east around 5 knots or less expected. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1146 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Offshore flow increases Sunday night continuing into Monday following the passage of a strong cold front. Due to the northerly fetch setup, higher seas in the 3 to 5 foot range look to be developing in the 20 to 60 NM waters. Small craft advisory criteria will likely be required for portions of area waters which would include Mobile Bay and the open Gulf waters out 60 NM early Monday morning into the day Monday. Winds decrease and seas subside by late Monday night. Seas to 1 to 2 feet range by the middle of the next week. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 46 66 48 58 / 20 30 50 0 Pensacola 51 64 51 59 / 50 40 60 10 Destin 51 65 52 62 / 60 50 60 10 Evergreen 41 62 44 58 / 10 20 50 0 Waynesboro 40 61 43 54 / 10 20 50 0 Camden 39 59 42 54 / 0 20 50 0 Crestview 45 62 46 59 / 40 40 50 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.