textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to possible flash flooding will occur through at least Tuesday.

- HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through at least Thursday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The bulk of the convection has moved out of the area with light to moderate rain showers persisting across the southern and eastern portions of the area at this hour. An early glance at the probabilistic guidance indicates that patchy fog (potentially dense fog) is possible in the pre-dawn hours across southeast Mississippi on Tuesday. However, given today's heavy rainfall area-wide, patchy fog could develop across the rest of our area as well (confidence remains low). Still anticipate yet another round of storms developing early Tuesday morning with heavy rainfall being the predominant threat. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

KMOB and KEVX radars are detecting numerous to widespread showers with embedded isolated to scattered thunderstorms across our coastal area and the Gulf. Radar precipitation estimates and surface observations are showing between 1.5 to 3.0 inches have fallen across our coastal communities within the past 12 hours, with up to 5 inches for western Stone county MS, where a Flash Flood Warning remains in effect. These values taper off further inland as the deeper convection wanes and rainfall rates drop. Several banding features over the Gulf associated with an upper shortwave being depicted on the current synoptic overview will continue to move northward over the northwest Florida into south central Alabama through late evening bringing an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain (locally higher) to those areas. Some of the CAMs are hinting at an additional band of storms possibly developing further to west over interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama late this afternoon into early evening bringing an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain.

Overall, this large shield of precipitation will taper off by mid to late evening before redevelopment occurs late tonight through Tuesday morning as the next wave we are monitoring over the north central Gulf bring another round of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms to our entire forecast area through afternoon Tuesday afternoon. The Flash Flood Watch for all of our zones remains in effect through Tuesday evening. We will continue to focus our key messaging on the potential of flash flooding our warning area remains under a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance through through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is possible with additional widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, locally as high as 6 inches as PWATs hover above 2 inches. Instances of flash flooding will occur where banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms with high precipitation rates occur.

Beach Forecast - The risk for rip currents will remain HIGH through at least Thursday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Offshore storms will only act to amplify the surf and rip currents each day. /22

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Showers continue to slide north along the coast at this hour and will impact all TAF sites over the next 2 hours or so. Ceilings will fall into the MVFR to IFR range late this evening, but visibility should remain VFR at the terminals. Patchy fog is possible across southeast Mississippi in the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday, but should remain north of the terminals. Another round of showers and storms is expected early Tuesday through much of the day. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist throughout the week. Seas will generally be 3 to 4 feet through midweek, occasionally to 5 feet near thunderstorms. Significant restrictions to visibility due to periods of heavy rain and locally higher winds will occur near thunderstorms. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 81 72 85 / 50 90 30 60 Pensacola 74 81 74 84 / 60 80 50 40 Destin 75 83 75 84 / 70 70 60 40 Evergreen 70 80 70 85 / 60 90 30 80 Waynesboro 69 81 70 85 / 50 90 30 90 Camden 68 78 69 84 / 60 90 30 80 Crestview 70 82 70 87 / 60 80 50 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.