textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Hurricane/Storm Surge Warning in effect for the coast. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches expanded inland.

- Tropical Storm Isaias continues to strengthen and is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast late Friday.

- Increasing concern for significant impacts to the local area from Isaias including high winds, high surf, rip currents, storm surge, flash flooding, and tornadoes.

UPDATE

Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Have issued a Flash Flood watch for our coastal counties along with Escambia, and Covington counties in Alabama. Timing is 18z Friday to 18z Saturday. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Through Saturday night...The forecast is dominated by Isaias, which has developed over the southwestern Gulf, and as of 03z/10pm, is a tropical storm. Isaias is expected to move more northeast, then north from its current east-northeasterly movement later tonight into Friday, moving onshore in the Mobile CWA coastal area Friday night. There has been a consistent shift in the forecasted point of moving onshore, currently near Pensacola, with the 10pm/03z NHC issuance. The movement of Isaias is governed by an upper low over southern Louisiana/southwest Texas and an upper ridge stretching west over Florida, with the ultimate path leaning towards AI models. How this contention between upper low and ridge plays out will likely see some adjustments in path as Isaias moves onshore Friday night. Guidance is indicating drier air being ingested Saturday from the southwest, with higher PoPs shifting east and north of the forecast area Saturday into Saturday night. Will need to address the possibility of a Flash Flood Watch for part of the forecast area in future issuances, with the possiblity coming into the 48hr time frame. Will let day shift handle this for now. With the 10pm issuance, the Hurricane Watch for area waters and coastal counties has been updated to a Hurricane Warning. Otherwise, no WWA changes made.

Looking at temperatures, high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s Thursday drop into the upper 70s to low 80s for Saturday. Low temperatures ranging from around 60 north of Highway 84 to around 70 along the coast area expected into the weekend.

Sunday through Wednesday, as Isaias continues to move north over the eastern Conus, the upper ridge over the Caribbean shifts west to over the Gulf. A dry airmass moves over the Southeast in the wake of Isaias. Combined with the upper ridge, high temperatures quickly rise into the mid/upper 80s, with low temperatures remaining in the around 60 well inland to upper 60s near the coast.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, Isaias will bring a High Risk of Rip Currents into Sunday before easing to a Moderate on Monday. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. Northeasterly winds around 5 knots or less increase to 5-10 knots on Thursday over interior areas, and to around 10 knots closer to the coast. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Tropical Storm Isaias begins to lift northeast and northward over the central Gulf tonight into Thursday and Friday. Isaias is forecast to intensify to a hurricane Thursday morning and continues to strengthen through Friday. Winds deteriorate and seas become very high at the close of the week as Isaias approaches and moves north across the coastal waters. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 85 68 79 65 / 0 0 60 90 Pensacola 83 71 79 69 / 10 10 70 100 Destin 84 71 80 70 / 10 20 70 100 Evergreen 86 63 81 61 / 0 0 50 90 Waynesboro 87 62 83 61 / 0 0 30 90 Camden 86 60 82 59 / 0 0 30 90 Crestview 83 66 77 63 / 0 10 70 100

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Tropical Storm Watch for ALZ052>055-057-058.

Hurricane Watch for ALZ056-059-060.

Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for ALZ059-060-261>266.

Hurricane Warning for ALZ261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

Storm Surge Warning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

Hurricane Warning for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

Storm Surge Warning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ076-079.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.