textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday night through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The upper trough extending from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley will gradually deamplify as it moves slowly eastward through tonight. An upper ridge over Florida, a small portion of the southeast states, and the eastern Gulf will expand northward on Friday to fill the void as a series of weak shortwaves pass over the Ohio Valley. The upper ridge will get nudged southward over the weekend as a stronger positively tilted upper trough exits the Middle Mississippi Valley and moves slowly southeastward, eventually settling along to the Eastern Seaboard to the Northern Gulf as a large upper high builds over the central CONUS. The combination of the upper trough and a weak surface low pressure area reflected in the lower levels over our region will result in an erratic light wind flow pattern at multiple levels, but there is still a small chance of a backdoor cool front slipping into our area from the northeast late Monday night. The diurnal pattern continues through the near term with a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, followed by a 20-40% chance on Friday as seabreezes push inland. Rain chances will increase over the weekend with scattered to numerous coverage on Saturday and numerous to widespread coverage on Sunday. Looking into early next workweek, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday followed by numerous coverage on Tuesday. As with all summertime convection, instances of stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty surface winds and locally heavy downpours can be expected.

High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above normal, ranging from 90-95 degrees. Lows will be about 4 to 9 degrees above normal, with middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 73 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short duration instances as high as 110 degrees. Cooler high temperatures will occur through the first half of next week with the increase in cloud coverage an rain chances. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR flight category continues to prevail across the region today. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible again this afternoon, mainly over interior areas, temporarily reducing flight category at times. Winds out of the south to southwest this morning less than 5 knots strengthen to 5 to 10 knots by late morning into the afternoon hours. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A light to occasionally moderate generally southerly flow prevails through Saturday, becoming southwesterly Sunday and westerly by early next week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet by the weekend. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 93 76 92 76 / 10 10 40 10 Pensacola 92 81 92 80 / 20 20 30 0 Destin 89 82 89 81 / 20 10 20 0 Evergreen 93 73 92 73 / 30 20 40 10 Waynesboro 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 20 10 Camden 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 Crestview 93 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.