textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 510 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

- An arctic airmass moves into the local area tonight and lingers through Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected each night, with very little heating expected on Saturday.

- Gusty winds are expected on Saturday across the area, with gusts potentially as high as 40-45 mph in spots, especially along the coast.

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact our local marine zones tonight through Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are likely, along with the potential for low water levels in our bays and sounds, and the possibility of a light freezing spray Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

An anomalously strong upper trough is beginning to deepen across the southeast US. Guidance continues to suggest that height anomalies associated with this trough will be over 5 standard deviations below normal for this time of year, which is an incredibly rare feat. At the surface, an associated arctic cold front is currently pushing through the local area. As we go through the evening and into the overnight hours, winds are expected to strengthen considerably as the pressure gradient between the arctic front and a powerful high pressure system to our north strengthens. Winds overnight tonight may gust to as high as 30-35 mph. This will help to usher in some very cold temperatures with lows crashing into the upper teens to low 20s west of I-65 and mid to upper 20s for areas east. Factoring in the winds, wind chills will likely drop into the single digits for many interior areas Saturday morning and lower teens for coastal counties.

As we go through the day on Saturday, winds are expected to increase even further as a northerly low-level jet develops. The cold, sinking airmass should help to mix down gustier winds from this jet to the surface, possibly allowing for winds to frequently gust to as high as 40-45 mph. Because of this, a Wind Advisory is now in effect from 6 AM through 9 PM Saturday for our Florida and Alabama counties. These strong, cold winds will also prevent us from warming much. In fact, several interior counties on Saturday may not get above freezing. Highs will range from the low 30s inland to the upper 30s along the coast. Factoring in the gusty winds, wind chills during the day will likely only remain in the upper teens to lower 20s!

Our coldest night of the season comes Saturday night when lows plummet into the middle to upper teens, with low 20s along the immediate coast. With these forecasted temperatures, we could actually get pretty close to records Sunday morning (Feb 1st record lows - KMOB: 17 KPNS: 20). Winds Sunday morning, although much lower than Saturday) will still remain rather elevated, helping to bring single digit wind chills to the entire local area. An extreme Cold Warning is in effect from tonight all the way through Sunday morning. Residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather.

Temperatures quickly start to moderate Sunday and into early next week as the upper trough lifts into the western Atlantic and high pressure pushes to the east of the local area. Highs by Tuesday will warm into mid to upper 60s and lows Tuesday night will generally be in the mid to upper 40s. Our next cold front arrives on Wednesday, helping to bring an increase in rain chances. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

An MVFR ceiling may develop over interior areas late tonight into Saturday morning, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon. Northwesterly winds 5-10 knots steadily increase to around 20 knots through Saturday morning, with gusts increasing to 30-35 knots. /29

MARINE

Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Strong offshore flow is expected to develop tonight behind an arctic cold front. Gale force winds are expected across all local marine zones through Saturday night. Seas well offshore may build to as high as as high as 10-12 feet well offshore. It should be noted that the strong northerly flow will shift water in Mobile Bay out of the bay, creating much lower than usual water levels in shipping channels. Additionally, air temperatures dropping into the mid 20s, along with sustained winds around 20-25 knots, could lead to a light freezing spray/minor icing. Winds and seas will decrease on Sunday and into Monday. Light onshore flow is expected by Tuesday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 24 34 18 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 27 36 21 44 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 27 38 22 44 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 20 32 16 42 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 18 31 16 43 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 18 31 16 40 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 23 35 16 43 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for ALZ051>060- 261>264.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for FLZ201>206.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for FLZ201-203-205.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Gale Warning until midnight CST Saturday night for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>636.

Gale Warning until 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675.