textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 - Heat Risk increases on Thursday, which will continue into the upcoming weekend. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM thru 8PM on Thursday, with additional heat headlines expected through the weekend. Afternoon heat indices in the 105-112 degree range will be dangerous for anyone outdoors for extended periods.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The forecast is on track with no changes planned at the moment. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1059 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Starting off with early this afternoon, seeing a few shallow showers developing inland, as well as a few anchored to SW/NE boundaries in nearshore marine areas. Latest NBM PPI grids from the 13Z guidance supports this well, as CAMS continue to support best rain chances along/north of the I-10 corridor. A few that interact/anchor to the seabreeze boundary aided by greater forcing could grow tall enough to become thunderstorms with time. Regardless of nearby high pressure, the vertical column/thermal profile according to proximity soundings remains rather moist adiabatic, with a slug of enhanced tropospheric moisture locked in across SE LA, east to our general area. But we'll see all activity come to an end later on around sunset once we lose diurnal support.

Generally quiet tonight, then another hot one coming up tomorrow. Did pay close attention to afternoon dewpoints, implementing a more realistic PBL mixing regime and lowering inland dewpoints a few degrees. Wanted to do this first before looking at MaxApt values which even after the fact, clearly places us in Heat Advisory criteria for the I-10 corridor. Now farther inland, especially across interior AL along the I-65 corridor, yes, greater deep mixing could prohibit reaching criteria (moreso 104-107), but did not want to split hairs and obscure the messaging that impacts will be increasing starting tomorrow for those spending time outdoors. The upper-level ridge center overhead continues to retrograde west, with remnant energy over the Ohio Valley region to rotate south into AL/GA, in conjunction with building tropospheric moisture to enhance afternoon shower/storm coverage. NBM PoPs are targeting greater coverage for mainly eastern areas, which appears plausible given aforementioned reasoning. A few storms could be locally strong, with strong gusty winds the main risk. Will monitor that.

Friday through the weekend, the main key message will be the heat, with heat headlines likely to persist. Otherwise, will monitor this same mid-level impulse, then drifting west along the northern Gulf coast that could aid in dynamic lift to support a bit greater, mainly late morning into afternoon scattered shower/storm coverage, particularly on Saturday. A few storms may be locally strong to severe depending on how storms behave across intersecting boundaries enhancing localized ascent, but will monitor.

Next week, the heat continues with no real major changes in the impacts. Afternoon heat indices in the 106-110 range will persist, with typical mainly afternoon pop-up storm chances. We could see a bit of a breakdown in the ridge mid-week, allowing a trending weakness in upper-level heights to support greater shower/storm coverage and less in the way of the heat, however, will be able to fine tune that closer especially into early next week. KLG

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected with the exception of a few showers and storms this evening and on Thursday. Winds become light and variable this evening, then a southwesterly flow at 5-10 knots develops on Thursday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1059 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Nearby high pressure will continue to promote light southwesterly to westerly winds through the forecast period. Waves/seas will remain light with no impacts anticipated. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 94 76 96 / 10 10 0 10 Pensacola 80 93 79 95 / 10 20 0 10 Destin 81 92 80 93 / 10 10 10 10 Evergreen 75 95 76 97 / 10 10 10 20 Waynesboro 76 98 76 100 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 76 95 77 97 / 0 10 10 10 Crestview 75 96 75 97 / 10 20 10 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.