textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through midweek. Surf heights up to 5 feet are expected through Monday, with rough surf expected.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through midweek.

- A strong cold front will move through the area on Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms likely across the area. The threat for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1023 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows an amplified trough extending southward through the Rockies and a broad ridge over the central CONUS. Several weaknesses continue to rotate around the ridge, sparking isolated showers across the region. At the surface, strong high pressure off the southeastern coast has kept our winds from the east and this trend should continue through the overnight hours. As we head into the overnight hours, clouds will keep things fairly mild and lows will only fall into the lower 60s areawide.

The new work week will start off dry, as ridging and high pressure maintain their hold on the weather pattern. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, temps will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The aforementioned trough will make its way eastward, reaching the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A cold front will develop and trail southward from its parent low over the Great Lakes. Over the local area, Tuesday will be another dry day, though rain chances will begin to increase late Tuesday as isentropic lift increases along the northward moving warm front. The trough will begin to broaden a bit Tuesday night, as the surface cold front moves east of the Mississippi River. Although there are some discrepancies with the timing, latest model runs are centering on the cold front sweeping through the area on Wednesday, moving east of the area by Thursday.

Given the overall set up with this system, the chance for severe thunderstorms remains minimal at this point. There are a few limiting factors that we'll be watching to see how things evolve. The primary limiting factor is the weakening trend of the trough as it moves eastward. Although it does take on a negative tilt as it crosses into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, it begins to broaden out quite a bit. Several shortwaves will rotate around the base of the trough, but these may be too little too late given that if it does weaken, much of the dynamics will remain well to our north. Along those same lines, our lapse rates are fairly weak as we lack significant height falls which in turn will limit the instability. So all in all, our forcing and wind shear will be shunted to the north and our instability limited. Where these parameters peak do not overlap up in timing to give us a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. The daytime arrival of the front and associated storms is favorable if we're able to tap into the diurnal heating, but we will still lack the forcing and shear to lend organized convection.

As mentioned above, the front will move east of the area by Thursday, with high pressure settling in its wake. Drier air will filter into the region bringing a return to near normal temperatures. Highs will still warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday and Friday, but overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. A reinforcing cold front will move through over the weekend, bringing even cooler daytime highs to the area. /73

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the first half of the forecast period. Cigs will generally remain in the 1000 to 2000 ft range overnight, though guidance suggests that cigs will drop to IFR during the early morning hours. Confidence is on the low side regarding the overall ceiling forecast, so opted to take a more pessimistic approach. Cigs should improve later this morning, with VFR conditions expected by the afternoon./73

MARINE

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue through Monday, before winds shift to the southeast on Tuesday. A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday, with winds decreasing and becoming offshore on Thursday. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 79 66 80 / 10 0 0 20 Pensacola 66 79 68 79 / 20 0 0 10 Destin 66 80 68 80 / 20 0 0 10 Evergreen 59 78 61 79 / 10 0 0 10 Waynesboro 61 79 62 80 / 10 0 0 10 Camden 58 77 62 77 / 10 0 0 10 Crestview 60 81 62 82 / 20 10 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.