textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

- Strong winds will create hazardous marine conditions for small craft this evening into Saturday.

- Life threatening rip currents are likely at area beaches tonight through Saturday.

- There is a Marginal risk for an isolated severe storm along and east of the I-65 corridor late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Localized damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Warm air advection showers will continue to increase in coverage overnight as a shortwave approaches from the west. However, coverage will remain isolated to scattered. Rainfall amounts will remain light to the lack of significant deep layer moisture. The shortwave and associated cold front will enter the area around daybreak and progress eastward through the day. The highest coverage is expected to remain east of I-65 through the day. There remain a very marginal severe threat during the afternoon as MLCAPES increase to around 1500 J/Kg and deep layer shear values increase. However, the lack of deep layer moisture and weak surface convergence will inhibit overall convective development. However, if a stronger storms is able to develop, damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the main threats.

The front will clear the area by late this afternoon into this evening, bringing an end to the precip chances and the return to some cooler and drier air. Upper level ridging will once again build across the region for early to mid next week with temperatures climbing to well above normal levels. /13

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

IFR conditions will spread east across the forecast area into this afternoon as an upper system passes. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots this morning will shift to northwesterly by late this afternoon as a surface low passes. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move through the coastal waters late this afternoon into tonight with a moderate offshore flow developing in the wake of the front. The offshore flow diminishes on Sunday and transitions to a light onshore flow early next week as high pressure quickly moves east of the region. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 49 67 45 / 50 0 0 0 Pensacola 73 53 67 50 / 80 10 0 0 Destin 71 53 65 51 / 80 20 0 0 Evergreen 73 46 66 41 / 60 10 0 0 Waynesboro 70 44 63 41 / 30 0 0 0 Camden 68 44 62 41 / 50 0 0 0 Crestview 74 48 67 42 / 80 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655- 670-675.