textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected today, increasing mid week on.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches the latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Through Thursday night, an upper level shortwave trough digging off the East Coast shifts an upper high over the northern Gulf Coast, westward, to over the northwestern Gulf Coast. A surface high over the eastern Gulf shifts west to over the central Gulf in response, with a drier airmass over the Gulf (precipitable h20 values less than 1.5") shifting north over the northern Gulf and Lower Mississippi River Valley. This displaces the moist airmass over the forecast area eastward to varying extents, depending upon the model. Add in an upper level shortwave trough passing over the northeast side of the upper ridge Wednesday, and a dry, subsidence caused day Tuesday sees isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the forecast area Wednesday. Thursday, PoPs drop to isolated, mainly over areas southeast of I-65 as moisture levels drop and upper subsidence returns and builds east a bit, even as the upper high shifts west.

Temperatures see a bit of an increase with dropping moisture levels, especially over the western half of the forecast area along with upper subsidence increasing a bit with the building upper high. High temperatures away from the coast rise from the 92-97 degree range Tuesday rise into the 94 to 99 degree range Thursday. Along the coast, high temperatures around 90 are expected through mid week. Heat indices rise from the 100-107 degree range over most of the forecast area Tuesday rise into the 105 to 110 degree range Thursday. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed Wednesday, though the extent is hard to pin down at this time.

Friday though the weekend, The upper ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf coast shifts north, to over the Southern/Central Plains, surface high pressure shifts to over the Southern Plains in response. As the upper high moves off over the central Conus, increased moisture over the eastern half of the Southeast shifts west over the region (and the forecast area), but an upper building east over the Southeast will keep good upper subsidence over the region, helping to limit PoPs to isolated to low end scattered at best over the forecast area into the coming week. Temperatures see a small uptick into the weekend, along with Heat Indices..

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected into mid week, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to a low Moderate is indicated for the end of the week, especially over our Florida beaches. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 75 93 76 / 10 0 30 0 Pensacola 91 78 92 79 / 20 0 20 0 Destin 90 79 91 80 / 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 30 0 Waynesboro 96 75 97 75 / 10 0 20 10 Camden 93 75 93 75 / 10 10 20 0 Crestview 94 74 95 75 / 10 0 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.