textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 209 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 - A Slight Risk of severe storms exists through tonight northwest of the I-65 corridor, with a Marginal Risk to the southeast. A Marginal Risk of severe storms exists Saturday into early afternoon across the entire area. - Localized flash flooding will be possible through tonight northwest of the I-65 corridor.

- Strong northerly winds over the marine area Saturday night through Monday morning will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

We finalize our transition to a wetter pattern tonight into the weekend as weak upper ridging over the northeast Gulf and Florida gets pushed to the southeast as a strong shortwave approaches from the west. At the surface, high pressure along the southeast coast will shift eastward as surface trough/low pressure area across southeast Texas/Louisiana lifts northeastward across the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight, and across the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys on Saturday. In response to this, low level winds turn southwesterly, allowing for moisture below 700mb to increase through tonight, with PWATs between 1.5 to 1.7 inches expected area-wide by Saturday morning.

Severe Weather Potential...

Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through tonight northwest of the I-65 corridor where a Slight Risk of severe storms outlook area from SPC resides, with a Marginal Risk to the southeast. A Marginal Risk of severe storms exists Saturday into early afternoon across the entire area. Several things have changed with model guidance the past 12 hours, with increasing confidence on strong to severe storms associated with the shortwave now expected to start very late this afternoon through late evening over our far interior southeast MS and southwest AL zones, with a lull in activity until around 3 AM Saturday. After 3 AM, we expect the final push of two lines of convection to slowly advance across the forecast area throughout the day Saturday as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. The environment in the vicinity of this convection will have moderate MLCAPE values up to around 800-1,000j/kg, sfc-3km SRH values as high as 250 m2/s2, and sfc-6km Bulk Shear as high as 50kts. if the right sequence of these features come into phase, it could serve as a focus for discrete thunderstorm development with the first line of convection late tonight through Saturday, that could result in localized damaging winds and a tornado or two. Given the rather low rainfall rates expected, heavy rainfall and flooding outside of local nuisance flooding seems rather unlikely at this point.

In the wake of the aforementioned cold front passing through our area Saturday afternoon into early evening, a much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area. Expect afternoon highs on Sunday and Tuesday to top out in the middle 50s to lower 60s, with the coldest day (Monday) only ranging from 50 to 55 degrees. Overnight lows Sunday and Monday nights are expected to dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s interior and middle 30's along the coast. These temps are about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. High and low temps then rebound to near climatological norms through midweek before another strong cold passing through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday brings a few showers and another significant drop in temperatures.

Beach Forecast: A MODERATE rip current risk will continue through Sunday afternoon, becoming LOW Sunday night into midweek. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail across much the area through mid-evening, with the exception of periods of IFR conditions associated with numerous showers and a scattered thunderstorms northwest of I-65. These numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to slowly advance to the southeast late tonight through noon Saturday. Patchy dense fog is possible along the coast tonight into Saturday morning. /22

MARINE

Issued at 209 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for our entire marine area starting at 9 PM Saturday in the wake of strong cold front. Gusts to gale force will be possible offshore Saturday night through Sunday night. This advisory is set to expire for all bays and the Mississippi Sound at noon Sunday, and for the Gulf waters at 9 AM Monday as the strong northerly winds diminish. Patchy dense marine fog is possible tonight through Saturday morning over all bays, sounds, and near shore Gulf waters. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 74 44 58 / 70 90 10 0 Pensacola 67 74 49 59 / 40 80 30 0 Destin 65 73 50 60 / 20 70 50 0 Evergreen 65 76 43 57 / 60 90 20 0 Waynesboro 63 71 41 55 / 90 90 10 0 Camden 63 73 41 53 / 90 90 10 0 Crestview 65 77 46 60 / 30 80 40 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675.