textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. The greatest hazard will be heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Heat and humidity will continue through next week. Peak heat indices will range from around 95-100 this weekend, increasing to around 103-110 by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The forecast area remains situated near the base of a broad upper trough over eastern North America. Widespread cloud cover and areas of rainfall have held temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with highs now only expected to top out in the mid 80s (at best) for most spots this afternoon. Heavy thunderstorms across the Western Florida Panhandle from this morning are winding down as of early afternoon. Meanwhile, an overnight MCS over southeast Mississippi has left behind a weak MCV, evident on visible satellite. Any low level convergence boundaries near this MCV mas serve as a focus for additional showers and storms later this afternoon if breaks in the cloud cover allow for sufficient destabilization. It should not take much heating for convection to redevelop given very moist profiles, with PWATs around 2.1 inches. This environment supports very high rainfall rates, as we saw in the Florida Panhandle this morning, so any slow-moving or training storms could result in localized flash flooding. There is considerable uncertainty now regarding overall storm coverage this afternoon due to widespread clouds limiting instability, so PoPs may need to be adjusted down a bit for today.

Hi-res guidance indicates the MCV should drift offshore tonight, potentially leading to the development of a weak surface low off the coast Friday into the weekend. This feature may enhance shower and storm coverage near the coast and over marine zones before gradually weakening and shifting westward by Sunday. Depending on how far north low-level convergence extends, a few rounds of locally heavy rainfall will be possible along the coast Friday into Saturday, and perhaps into Sunday if the low tracks farther north. Further inland, a weak front may attempt to usher in somewhat drier air across northwestern portions of the area, which may keep shower and storm chances to 30% or less over portions of the interior. For other areas, confidence is low regarding how far south the drier air will reach, so maintaining 40-60% PoPs Friday through the weekend with greatest coverage over coastal counties. Increased cloud cover and precip should keep temperatures near or a bit below average.

By early next week, the subtropical ridge is forecast to build over the Southeast, placing our area in a persistent southeasterly flow regime. This pattern will continue to transport deep tropical moisture into the region, with PWATs remaining around 2 inches. As a result, isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Near to above-normal temperatures will also make a return next week, with highs away from the coast climbing well into the 90s. Combined with the high humidity, heat indices are forecast to rise into the 103 to 110 range next week.

At the beaches, a Low risk of rip currents is forecast to continue through early next week. JGC/98

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Today's forecast is a bit low confidence as several disturbances traverse the region. Earlier storms have pushed east of our southern sites, with low clouds moving near KMOB and KBFM. Based on latest trends, the low clouds are likely not to make it further east and will likely dissipate over the next hour or two. Additional thunderstorms are nearing KPNS and KJKA and these may push onshore during the afternoon. I'm slightly more confidence in KJKA and KPNS seeing TSRA so have included a tempo for the afternoon. At KMOB and KBFM, confidence is lower so a PROB30 group was included. Additional thunderstorms are possible overnight, but these were not included in the current forecast due to the uncertainty. /73

MARINE

Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A light southwesterly flow will be in place through tonight, becoming more variable for Friday. Winds become southeasterly for the weekend into early next week with a diurnal northeasterly to southeasterly flow pattern developing by midweek. Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected through the weekend, becoming isolated to scattered by next week. Expect higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. JGC/98

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 88 71 90 / 50 60 20 40 Pensacola 74 86 74 87 / 60 70 50 50 Destin 75 85 75 87 / 70 70 60 50 Evergreen 70 90 69 91 / 50 50 20 40 Waynesboro 70 92 70 93 / 20 20 30 20 Camden 71 91 70 91 / 30 40 30 30 Crestview 70 88 70 89 / 40 60 40 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.