textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 544 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect through Friday for strong rip currents creating dangerous swimming conditions.

- Above normal temperatures have returned for the foreseeable future. Best rain chances are expected late Thursday night into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Now through Thursday...

An upper level shortwave trough moving through a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus passes over the Southeast tonight through Friday. A weak surface front moves across the forecast area later tonight into Friday in response, eventually stalling south of the northern Gulf coast by Friday evening. With decent moisture availability over the forecast area and nearby (precipitable h20 values around 1.5") along isentropic upglide along and north of the front, rain showers are expected. Adding in some upper divergence from a passing split upper level jet, and some instability (guidance is advertising MUCapes in the 600-800J/kg range), locally heavy rains may cause ponding in poor drainage areas. With the forecast area experiencing very dry to drought conditions, this rain will help to moisten area soils, but limit water issues. The expected quick passage of this system will also help to limit more serious water issues.

The upper trough remains over the eastern Conus through the weekend, then shifts east as a strong closed upper low dives south over the western Conus, shifting an upper ridge over the Southeast in response. The upper ridge builds through mid week, deflecting the upper low away from the Southeast.

Looking at temperatures, above seasonal norms is the name of the game for temperatures. Low to mid 70s for high temperatures Friday rise into the mid 70s to around 80 by Sunday, remaining there for the rest of the forecast. Low temperatures see a more variability initially, dropping from the mid 50s to around 60 tonight to the upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday night. From there, a warming trend ensues, with mid 50s to around 60 expected for Wednesday night.

Persistent onshore flow increasing onshore swell and a large tidal rain is bring a High Risk for rip currents to area beaches. am expecting this to decrease beginning late Friday through the weekend into the coming week as the onshore flow becomes less organized and the tidal range decreases. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the area for the time being, gradually giving way to MVFR and IFR ceilings later this evening through the morning Friday. Isolated showers this evening will gradually increase in coverage from north to south, becoming numerous as a cold front gradually pushes across the area. Temporary reductions in ceiling and visibility can be expected underneath the heaviest showers and isolated storms. Winds will gradually shift in the wake of the front from southwesterly to northwesterly overnight tonight, becoming northerly by mid to late morning. Winds will remain around 5 to 10 knots for the most part, with occasional gusts to 15 to 20 knots. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1214 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Moderate onshore flow currently will shift to a light to moderate late Friday into Friday night as a system moves east of area waters. Light onshore flow begins to return early in the week, with some strengthening mid week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 61 73 54 76 / 70 70 10 0 Pensacola 62 71 56 73 / 60 70 20 0 Destin 61 69 56 71 / 60 70 30 10 Evergreen 57 73 51 76 / 90 70 10 0 Waynesboro 57 73 49 75 / 90 30 0 0 Camden 56 71 51 73 / 90 40 10 0 Crestview 59 73 52 76 / 70 80 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.