textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity.

- Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights. Super fog development, which could reduce visibilities to near zero, is possible near and around prescribed burns/wildfires.

- A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A strong upper-level ridge over the Southeast US briefly retreats southward as a weakening shortwave pushes across the Tennessee River Valley on Thursday. Not anticipating any rain as this shortwave passes to our north due to limited moisture and little forcing. The ridge builds back in for Friday and Saturday, leading to very warm temperatures. Highs through Saturday will generally range from the low 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. Would not be surprised to see one or two inland locations crack the 90 degree mark on Friday. Lows will generally range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. With strong ridging in place, along with light winds and saturated boundary layer conditions, fog development continues to remain likely over the next several nights. Looking at tonight, rather high dense fog probabilities from SREF/HREF guidance have increased confidence enough to go ahead and issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the entire local area from midnight tonight through 9 AM Thursday morning. Additionally, with several prescribed burns/wildfires ongoing across the area, we are also concerned for the potential of super fog as heavy smoke can enhance the fog and drastically reduce visibility to near zero. Although the greatest potential for super fog looks to remain away from the I-10 and I-65 corridor, super fog could bring visibility impacts to a few of our interior state highways late tonight and into early tomorrow morning.

The pattern finally begins to break down by Sunday as a longwave trough pushes eastward across the CONUS. This will allow for a cold front to approach and pass trough the local area. Moisture pooling along the front, along with limited forcing, may allow for a weakening line of showers (or possibly a thunderstorm) to push into the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Unfortunately, with forcing quickly lifting away from the area as the line of showers enters the area, we are not anticipating any meaningful rainfall with this front. After the front's passage, high pressure builds in to our north, allowing for drier and slightly cooler air to filter in for the start of next week. Highs Sunday will only reach the low to mid 70s, with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid to upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s south. For early next week, highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70s and lows will be in the 50s.

A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through Thursday night, lowering to a Low Risk for Friday and into the weekend. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region this evening, gradually giving way to MVFR and IFR flight category after midnight as fog begins to develop across the region. Expect reductions to LIFR and locally VLIFR flight category for both ceiling and visibility under areas of dense fog, particularly during the pre- dawn into daybreak hours. Fog should erode pretty quickly after sunrise, with the expectation for most locations to improve back to VFR flight category by mid morning. Winds remain generally light and variable tonight, becoming southerly to southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots during the day Thursday. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A light southeasterly flow becomes more southerly by Thursday and continues through Saturday. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow returns by Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisories may become necessary for Sunday and into Monday. /96

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Little to no relief is expected for our ongoing drought situation as mainly dry conditions continue over the next 7 days. Through Saturday, afternoon humidity values and 20 foot wind speeds are expected to remain below Red Flag criteria. However, given the worsening drought, an elevated fire risk will continue across the area. We will have to monitor conditions closely by Sunday and especially into early next week after a cold front passes through the area. We could get very close to Red Flag criteria by Monday/Tuesday timeframe as humidity values drop into the low 20% range and winds increase. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 63 82 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 65 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 65 77 65 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 56 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 61 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 57 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 56 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.