textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 - A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen behind the front along with building seas.

- A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84.

UPDATE

Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Performed a brief short-term update this morning. No major adjustments needed as the forecast remains on track overall. Proximity model soundings for early this morning along with GOES-16 Night microphysics continues to show patchy mid to upper- level clouds around in areas, which looks to have kept temperatures up a few degrees due to insolation (as previously discussed) helping to reduce widespread frost issues for northern areas. Still, a few traditionally colder areas in drainage basins will have the potential for patchy frost through daybreak. Will likely end up dropping the frost advisory early, but monitoring observed temperature trends will determine that.

Otherwise, got another lovely day ahead with continued patchy mid to upper-level clouds, on top of a strong low-level subsidence inversion sandwiched in between a moist upper troposphere and well-mixed, dry lower PBL. No adjustments needed to highs as everything is looking good! KLG

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

An upper low centered near southwest Texas has been sending abundant cirriform cloudiness downstream across much of the forecast area. A Frost Advisory remains in effect from 2 am until 8 am Monday for the northern portion of the forecast area, although it's possible that this upper level cloudiness may make it difficult for temperatures to get cold enough for frost to develop. It's not yet clear from the current temperature trends how this will play out, so have opted to leave the advisory as is for now and let the next shift reassess. The upper low shears out Monday into Tuesday followed by a rather large and deep upper trof developing over the eastern half of the CONUS which brings a strong cold front through the forecast area on Thursday. Temperatures moderate ahead of the approaching front, with highs trending to the mid to upper 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday, and overnight lows trending to the 50s by Wednesday night. The cold front ushers in much cooler air with lows by Friday night and Saturday night ranging from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the immediate coast. This could bring a light freeze to roughly Highway 84 northward both Friday night and Saturday night. Dry conditions are expected through the period as deep layer moisture remains too limited to support precipitation. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday, except for a moderate risk returning to the western Florida panhandle beaches on Thursday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast period. Winds will remain light this afternoon with SCT to BKN150 and 250 and no impacts anticipated. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 146 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Light northerly to northeasterly winds will continue today through early Tuesday, becoming light and variable Tuesday afternoon as a high pressure system moves over the Gulf waters. A light northerly flow will resume by late Tuesday night shifting to light westerly Wednesday afternoon. This westerly flow will increase to moderate by late Wednesday night as a strong cold front approaches from the north, followed by a moderate to strong offshore flow Thursday and Friday in the wake of the cold front with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves/seas respond reaching 2-3ft for protected waters, 3-4ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 4-7 ft for outer Gulf zones. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next weekend. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 50 77 52 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 74 57 75 59 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 74 58 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 73 43 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 74 44 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 71 43 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 75 44 77 47 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>058.

FL...None. MS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ067.

GM...None.