textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- The combination of low humidity values, potentially gusty winds, and moderate to extreme drought may lead to dangerous fire conditions today.

- A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected Wednesday night into Thursday for local area beaches.

- Rain chances are expected to increase late Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A shortwave trof over the south central states continues slowly across the southeast states through Wednesday night, while a surface ridge oriented along the northern Gulf coast promotes a light, moist southerly flow. Based on CAMS, the shortwave trof looks sufficient to support slight chance pops mainly over interior portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. An upper trof meanwhile advances across the western states and becomes oriented roughly over the northwest and north central states by Friday. A series of shortwaves ejected downstream from this feature lead to a frontal boundary settling into the northern half of Mississippi and Alabama by Saturday. The frontal boundary looks to drift into the forecast area on Sunday before lifting off to the north on Monday as a low pressure system advances across the Plains. The low pressure system is expected to bring a weak cold front back into the forecast area on Tuesday. This pattern looks to bring slight chance to chance pops to the area on Friday which increase to mostly likely pops for Saturday. Chance pops follow for Sunday with slight chance to chance pops for Monday and Tuesday.

The potential for severe storms appears to be low through Sunday, but with an increase in the 850 mb jet to 20-30 knots for Monday into early Tuesday morning this indicates that some strong storms may be possible and will need to be monitored. Highs on Wednesday will be mostly in the lower 80s, then trend to the mid to upper 80s going into early next week. Lows tonight and Wednesday night range from the mid 50s inland to the lower 60s at the coast then slowly trend to the mid to upper 60s by Monday night. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday, then a high risk follows for Wednesday night and Thursday. A moderate risk is in expected for Thursday night through Saturday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. Winds generally remain southerly to southeasterly this afternoon with occasional gusts to 15-20 knots. Winds diminish overnight and turn easterly to southeasterly by mid morning tomorrow. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow becomes predominately southeasterly by Wednesday, then becomes southwesterly this weekend. /29

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Relative humidity values this afternoon drop to 20-25% mainly over interior areas, but otherwise remain above critical levels Wednesday and Thursday. At this time, 20ft sustained wind speeds look to remain below critical levels of 15 mph for Mississippi, 16 mph for western Florida, and 15 mph for Alabama (and also below 20 mph gusts). Moderate to Extreme drought continues over the area, and a High Risk for Significant Fire Potential is in effect for today. A Fire Alert is also in effect for Alabama, but per coordination with adjacent offices and considering wind speeds remaining below criteria, will not issue a Red Flag Warning but will continue to message potentially hazardous fire conditions. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 80 59 81 59 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 78 62 79 63 / 0 0 10 0 Destin 77 63 77 64 / 0 0 10 0 Evergreen 84 53 84 53 / 0 0 10 0 Waynesboro 82 57 82 56 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 82 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 85 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.