textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Hot and humid conditions continue today with afternoon heat index values between 100 and 106 degrees.

- A MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue the first half of the week for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, becoming a HIGH risk on Wednesday.

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly for Monday into midweek bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Another hot and humid day is in store for today as highs reach the lower to middle 90s, and when combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, heat index values will again climb into the 100 to 106 degree range. We are only expecting a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms east of the Alabama River for today. A much wetter pattern returns Monday and Tuesday as one upper shortwave diving southeast over the northern Great Plains, followed by a second exiting the central Rockies, carves out a large trough over the eastern half of the U.S. by Monday morning. The trough will persist into midweek and then retreat northward as an upper ridge builds over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic. This trough will bring a surface cold front into the region by Monday morning and it is expected to stall as it reaches the southern half of Mississippi and Alabama prior to retreating back north by midweek. Atmospheric moisture will increase substantially with PWATs generally ranging from 2.2 to 2.4 inches Monday into midweek.

A continuous fetch of mid/upper impulses and shortwave energy will move in a deep westerly flow at the base of the trough over our region. We will continue to focus our key messaging on the potential of localized flash flooding as interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama remain under a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance on Monday, with our entire warning area under a Slight Risk on Tuesday. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible both days with widespread total rainfall amounts ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 inches, locally as high as 4 inches. Instances of flash flooding will occur where banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms with high precipitation rates occur near the stalled boundary. With the increase in clouds and rain, temperatures will not be nearly as hot with highs Monday mainly in the 80s and highs Tuesday in the middle 70s to middle 80s. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions expected for most areas into the afternoon. A few localities may see VISBYs dropping to low end MVFR/IFR towards sunrise, but these are expected to be few and far between. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along and east of I-65, with low end MVFR/IFR conditions possible in the stronger storms. These are expected to have minimal impact on operations. Winds are expected to be southerly through the forecast, with light winds overnight, rising to around 10 knots by afternoon, then again becoming light around sunset for the overnight hours. /16

MARINE

Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 95 77 88 74 / 10 20 70 60 Pensacola 94 80 90 77 / 30 10 50 60 Destin 91 79 88 77 / 30 10 50 50 Evergreen 94 75 86 71 / 20 50 80 80 Waynesboro 93 74 82 70 / 10 70 80 80 Camden 92 73 82 69 / 20 50 80 80 Crestview 94 76 90 73 / 40 10 70 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.