textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 237 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Abnormally hot conditions continue with another Heat Advisory in effect for all locations Thursday as afternoon heat indices rise into the 108 to 112 range. Additional heat advisories will likely be needed through the rest of the week.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall and locally strong to damaging wind gusts.

- There is a Moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches in Florida through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

We issued the next Heat Advisory for our entire forecast area for Thursday as high temperatures again will be in the middle to upper 90s, and when combined with surface dewpoints ranging from 73 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 105-110 degrees. The same is expected for Friday, so expected more Heat Advisories to come.

For the past couple of days we have seen convection develop inland each afternoon and move southward, with many producing damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. We expect the same for this afternoon, and Thursday and Friday afternoons as we remain along the eastern periphery of an upper ridge to our west with an upper trough digging southward over the eastern CONUS. As daytime heating leads to decreasing stability each afternoon, the environment will be supportive of a few strong to marginal severe storms capable of gusty surface winds, small hail, and frequent lightning as SBCAPE values escalate to around 3,000 to 4,000j/kg. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather outlooked for our area today and Thursday. Friday is a wait and see situation.

With the base of the upper trough reaching it's southernmost extent (into the northeastern Gulf) by the weekend, this will place our region in a deep northerly flow pattern, advecting in a drier air mass with PWATs dipping below 1.5 inches. There is also the potential for a surface boundary to enter our forecast area over the weekend. While this won't have much affect on the ambient temperatures, it should be enough to lower surface dewpoints and heat indices to where advisories will not be needed. In addition, there is a much lower chance of storms, so it is shaping up to be a nice weekend.

The rip current risk gradually tapers as we head through the rest of the week, with a moderate risk for the Florida Panhandle becoming a low risk by Friday. A low risk will remain for the Alabama coastline through the end of the week. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop after 19z and move southward into early evening before dissipating. MVFR ceilings and periods of LIFR/IFR visibilites are expected with the stronger storms, along with frequent lightning and heavy rain. Impact to operations may occur. southwesterly wind 5 to 10 knots during the day will become light overnight. /22

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

A light to occasionally moderate mostly westerly flow pattern persists into next week. Winds are expected to shift northwesterly late each night and then southwesterly in the afternoon. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 95 75 95 / 10 30 10 40 Pensacola 79 94 78 93 / 10 30 20 40 Destin 80 93 79 92 / 10 40 10 30 Evergreen 73 98 72 97 / 20 40 30 60 Waynesboro 74 99 73 98 / 20 30 20 50 Camden 74 97 73 95 / 10 30 30 50 Crestview 74 96 73 96 / 10 40 20 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.