textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain high through Friday, gradually diminishing this weekend. Storms will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Summer continues across the area with heat indices topping out at around 98-103 degrees through the weekend, increasing to around 103-110 degrees by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The large upper trough over eastern North America with the southern base now reaching the northeastern Gulf along with PWATS around 2.1" will allow for numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms today and scattered to numerous coverage tonight and Friday. There will be generalized widespread lower-level pressure across the region under the upper trough with no discernible dominate features as the models vary greatly as to where a potential weak surface boundary may set up. Eventually the trough will begin to lift northeastward by Saturday, allowing an upper ridge to build in from the west over the weekend and bring a slight lowering of rain chances, but we are still forecasting a daily occurring of mainly scattered daytime showers and storms. High temperatures are then poised to increase slightly through early next week.

The main threat over the next two days will be locally heavy rainfall. Where storms train over the same area or if rainfall rates are high enough, some flash flooding is possible. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has our area outlooked for a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall today along and southwest of a line from Waynesboro, MS to Crestview, FL, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) across all of our CWA zones on Friday.

High temperatures will be near normal (around 90 degrees) through the weekend before increasing to above normal Monday through the middle of next week. Lows will remain slightly above normal through the entire forecast, ranging from around 70 degrees inland to around 75 degrees along the coast.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through the remainder of the month. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A more organized complex of rainshowers and thunderstorms is moving towards the Mississippi Gulf coast. With the loss the day's heating, along with the previous convection, am expecting the coverage and strength to decrease, though a passing upper level shortwave is helping to the convection to last into the overnight hours. This complex can bring local drops in conditions to mid MVFR levels along with locally strong and variable winds. This complex has a low chance of affecting area TAF sites. The convection will shift offshore later tonight into Thursday morning, then redevelop inland in the late morning and afternoon. /16

MARINE

Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 89 71 88 71 / 70 50 50 20 Pensacola 89 74 87 74 / 70 50 60 40 Destin 88 75 86 75 / 50 50 70 30 Evergreen 90 70 89 69 / 80 50 60 20 Waynesboro 90 71 92 69 / 80 40 40 10 Camden 89 71 89 70 / 60 50 50 10 Crestview 91 70 88 69 / 70 40 70 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.