textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Strong storms are possible late this afternoon and evening.

- Heat Risk Concerns: Heat indices of around 100 over the southern portion of the area today.

- HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through Saturday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Wave runup and overwash are a concern along the coastline mid to late week as the surf quickly builds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An outflow boundary is currently the process of moving well offshore, with dry conditions expected to develop during the rest of the night. Surface winds briefly become light and variable overnight before turning northerly by Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through. The frontal boundary returns to the immediate coast Tuesday afternoon, then a back-door cold front pushes through from the east Tuesday night in response to a large surface high building over the eastern states. A positively tilted upper trof over the eastern states and an upper ridge over the central states will maintain a northwesterly flow aloft over the region on Tuesday, and another MCS may develop upstream and move into the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg are expected by Tuesday afternoon while shear values look to be low with 0-6 km bulk shear values remaining mostly 20 knots or less. DCAPE values currently look to be less than 500 J/kg, so with this environment convection should remain below severe limits. That said, will mention some strong storms are possible for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours due to the potential MCS.

Have gone with chance to likely pops for Tuesday. Isolated to scattered convection is possible over the southern portion of the area on Wednesday in the wake of the back-door front with otherwise dry conditions as an upper ridge builds into the region. Dry conditions are expected Thursday, then rain chances trend to slight chance to chance pops by Saturday as a return flow is established and the upper ridge weakens and shifts off to the east a bit. Mainly chance pops are expected for Sunday. Highs on Tuesday range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values of around 100 over the southern portion of the area. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler and around 80 then gradually trend to the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s near the coast then Wednesday night will be cooler with lows ranging from the upper 50s well inland to the mid/upper 60s at the immediate coast. Overnight lows gradually trend warmer to the lower to mid 70s by Sunday night. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday for the western Florida panhandle with a low risk for the Alabama beaches. A High Risk of rip currents is then expected for all beaches Wednesday through Friday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region through this evening. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected again today, with temporary reductions in ceiling and visibility underneath any storms. Winds remain out of the north today, shifting out of the east tonight as a back door cold front works its way across the area. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Winds will continue to turn more northerly through the morning and then easterly by tonight. Small craft conditions develop early Wednesday in the strengthening easterly flow and persist through Thursday across the bays, waterways, and Gulf waters while continuing through Friday for the far offshore Gulf waters. Onshore flow develops Friday through the weekend. Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 70 80 65 83 / 60 30 10 0 Pensacola 71 81 67 83 / 60 30 0 10 Destin 71 82 68 83 / 70 30 0 10 Evergreen 66 80 59 83 / 60 10 0 0 Waynesboro 68 80 59 83 / 40 10 0 0 Camden 66 80 59 82 / 40 10 0 0 Crestview 66 81 60 84 / 70 20 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630-631-633.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ632.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ634>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 PM CDT Friday for GMZ670-675.