textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 - A Slight Risk of severe storms exists Friday into Friday night across portions of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. A lower risk of severe storms is expected across the remainder of the area going into Saturday. - Localized flash flooding will be possible mainly across portions of southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama Friday into Friday night.

- Strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft Saturday night through Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A large upper trof mostly over the central portion of the CONUS slowly progresses into the eastern states through Saturday night then moves off into the western Atlantic Sunday night. A deep surface low lifts off to the Great Lakes region overnight and brings a trailing cold front to near the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence then over to near the Texas panhandle. In response to the slowly advancing large upper trof, a second surface low is expected to lift from near the lower Mississippi River valley Friday evening and into the northeast states, and in the process brings a cold front through the forecast area on Saturday. A series of shortwaves will move across the region mainly during the day on Friday into the evening before lifting off to the north. These shortwaves will lead to convection spreading into roughly the northwestern half of the forecast area Friday and persisting into the evening hours before starting to diminish as the shortwaves lift away from the area. While additional convection is expected to work across the area late Friday night into Saturday as the front approaches and moves through, the strength of the forcing with this convection looks weaker compared to Friday into the evening hours.

Sufficient instability and shear and forcing will be in place to support a Slight Risk of severe storms mainly over southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama generally from Friday into Friday night. A marginal risk of severe storms exists for much of the remainder of the area into Friday night, then across the entire area on Saturday. Another concern is the potential for locally heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night mainly across portions of southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. Considering dry antecedent conditions, will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for this portion at this point and continue to reassess. Unseasonably warm temperatures continue until the frontal passage, after which cooler temperatures are expected with another cold front moving through Wednesday into Wednesday night. Lows Sunday night and Monday night tend to range from the mid/upper 20s inland to the lower/mid 30s near the coast, and highs will be in the 50s for Sunday through Tuesday. After a bit warmer temperatures on Wednesday, highs Thursday and Friday will again be mostly in the 50s. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night tend to range from the mid 30s inland to the lower 40s at the coast. Slight chance to chance pops are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday night as the next front approaches and moves through, but despite the cool overnight temperatures, precipitation is expected to remain as rain. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday, after which a low risk is anticipated through Tuesday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

MVFR to LIFR conditions across the forecast area at this time will rise to general MVFR/VFR this morning with south to southeasterly winds of 5 to 10 knots. Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening will bring increasing coverage of low end MVFR to IFR conditions. Operations are expected to be affected at times, mainly this evening into the overnight hours. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1155 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds become southwesterly by Saturday morning. Dense marine fog is likely until mid Thursday morning mostly over the western Florida panhandle bays. A strong offshore flow develops Saturday night in the wake of a cold front, then diminishes on Monday. Gusts to gale force will be possible well offshore late Saturday night through Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for most of the marine area from Saturday night until Monday morning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 64 74 45 / 70 70 100 20 Pensacola 74 67 74 49 / 20 40 90 40 Destin 72 65 72 50 / 10 30 80 50 Evergreen 78 64 76 43 / 40 60 100 20 Waynesboro 74 62 72 40 / 80 90 90 10 Camden 76 62 72 40 / 70 80 100 20 Crestview 77 64 77 46 / 20 30 90 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ634>636- 655.