textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 - There is a low end potential for severe storms mainly along and west of I-65 Friday into Friday night, and across the entire area on Saturday. - Localized flash flooding will be possible mainly across interior southeastern Mississippi and interior southwestern Alabama.

- Dense fog development is likely tonight, particularly near and east of the I-65 corridor. Dense marine fog potential will continue through late week.

- Strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft Saturday night through Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A rather active 48 hours will be possible as our next cold front progresses across the area. Multiple hazards will be possible including strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall. Deep southwesterly flow will spread over the area tonight in response to an upper trough digging into the central US and an upper ridge over Florida amplifying. This will allow for deep moisture to continue to surge northward as flow begins to increase. Showers and thunderstorms should develop along a lifting boundary/confluence zone mainly across southeastern Mississippi by midday Friday and persist through the afternoon Friday. Storms will likely train across this zone through much of the afternoon and into the overnight hours as a pair of subtle shortwaves move through the broader southwesterly flow. The exact location of where this band sets up will determine 1. how much rain we could see and 2. the potential for severe weather. If the ridge is a bit stronger and this band sets up further northwest then our area may remain dry until the overnight hours and both the flooding rain threat and severe threat would be limited at best. However, if this band sets up over our area or even a little further east then both severe and locally heavy rainfall potential will increase. This will be the main trend we will have to watch the next 24 hours. By Friday the main upper trough will begin to finally eject eastward which will slowly start to push the front across our area allowing for a line of storms to progress from west to east across the area. Storms should be out of the area by midday Saturday.

Severe...This severe threat is a rather tricky and one that isn't screaming widespread severe. The main player will be the aforementioned band of storms late Friday afternoon into early Saturday evening. Forcing will be rather weak as height falls are rather weak and we will be relying on rather weak diffluence and warm advection. What this means is that lift will be rather poor rather than vigorous which means we will have to rely heavily on afternoon instability to get deeper thunderstorms. While we should see some daytime heating on Saturday, a subtle capping inversion (lid on the atmosphere) will likely inhibit stronger instability likely keeping things mostly in check. However, what instability that would develop would be confined to the lowest 3 or 4 km of the atmosphere and with hodographs highly curved with weak storm relative inflows, mini-spinnies would be prominent in this environment and will likely be the biggest concern. The other question will be if this band actually stays in our area. IF the band lifts north by the afternoon or stays west of our area than our severe threat will likely diminish. Nonetheless, the concern will be for a couple of stronger storms along this boundary to pose a threat of damaging winds and potentially a couple of tornadoes. If instability increases then a more significant threat could develop across southeastern Mississippi into interior southwestern Alabama. An isolated strong storm may persist into the overnight hours but with the lack of diurnal instability storms may struggle overnight unless the form closer to the coast where instability may be slightly higher overnight.

The second round of stronger storms would be possible early Saturday morning into the early afternoon as the front moves across the area. While storm coverage will be higher during this period, the overall environment will not be as conducive for strong to severe storms as low level winds veer and the best upper forcing/lift moves well north of the area. However, there will be a period during this time where instability by midday should increase and deep layer shear should be enough to warrant an isolated damaging wind threat and possibly a tornado. While this threat is rather marginal there is enough there to keep an eye on things. The best chance would be mainly east of I-65 around noon before storms exit the area.

Heavy Rainfall...Localized heavy rainfall will also be an issue overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. The greatest concern is across southeastern Mississippi into far interior southwestern Alabama where that confluence band sets up overnight. If storms are able to for along that boundary, storms will likely train over the same spots for a couple of hours yielding rainfall totals locally increasing. Current HREF LPMMS are in the 2 to 4 inch range along this boundary with locally higher maxes nearing 6 to 8 inches. Luckily for our area we can handle a fair amount of rainfall. Given PWATS around 1.5 inches and relatively modest instability, rainfall rates will likely float around 1.5 to 2 inches in the strongest of storms which would be below our 1 hours flash flood guidance. The flooding rain threat is also dependent on the boundary actually setting up across our area overnight and guidance is rather questionable on if this will happen. Given the uncertainty of location and the overall isolated nature of the threat we are not confidence enough in flooding to warrant a flash flood watch at this time. Would we be shocked to see a flash flood warning or two overnight Friday, no. However, we prefer to reserve flash flood warnings for situations for more widespread heavy rainfall and flooding. If guidance begins to support a higher potential for significant flooding or a more widespread threat then a flash flood watch would likely be issued with a later package.

Behind this system, temperatures will plummet as cool polar air moves into the area. Dry conditions will persist through the weekend with west northwesterly flow aloft keeping things cool and dry. By the middle part of next week, a rather weak upper shortwave will phase with deep upper troughing over the eastern us bringing a quick shot of overrunning precip to the area. Luckily this will be just a shot of cold dreary rain before drying out once again by the end of the week. Temperatures will range in the 50s for highs and 20s and 30s for lows. BB/8

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

An IFR/LIFR ceiling develops across the area tonight, with localized VLIFR conditions in dense fog possible. Conditions improve to MVFR Friday morning, with VFR conditions prevailing for Friday afternoon. Southeasterly winds diminish to around 5 knots or less this evening, then a south to southeast flow around 10 knots follows for Friday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow becomes southeasterly on Thursday and continues into Friday. Dense marine fog potential continues through the rest of the week. A strong offshore flow develops Saturday night in the wake of a cold front, then diminishes on Monday. Gusts to gale force will be possible well offshore late Saturday night through Sunday night. BB/8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 77 65 74 / 10 50 60 90 Pensacola 65 76 67 75 / 10 10 40 90 Destin 63 73 65 73 / 0 10 30 80 Evergreen 62 79 65 75 / 0 30 50 100 Waynesboro 65 75 63 72 / 40 80 90 90 Camden 63 77 64 72 / 10 60 70 100 Crestview 60 78 64 77 / 0 10 30 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ634>636-655.