textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain high through Friday, gradually diminishing this weekend. Storms will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Summer continues across the area with heat indices topping out at around 98-103 degrees through the weekend, increasing to around 103-110 degrees by the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A weakening storm complex is starting to enter our southeast Mississippi counties this morning. Over the next few hours, light to moderate rainfall from the remnants of this complex will spread eastward prior to dissipating. Additional storms will likely develop during the afternoon hours. Storms this afternoon will be capable of producing gusty winds. Additionally, high PWATs (2.0+ inches), plenty of instability, and little shear would support slow-moving, heavy rainfall producers. Any storms that manage to train or sit over the same areas could lead to flooding concerns. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for today, with no changes needed. /96

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The large upper trough over eastern North America with the southern base now reaching the northeastern Gulf along with PWATS around 2.1" will allow for numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms today and scattered to numerous coverage tonight and Friday. There will be generalized widespread lower-level pressure across the region under the upper trough with no discernible dominate features as the models vary greatly as to where a potential weak surface boundary may set up. Eventually the trough will begin to lift northeastward by Saturday, allowing an upper ridge to build in from the west over the weekend and bring a slight lowering of rain chances, but we are still forecasting a daily occurring of mainly scattered daytime showers and storms. High temperatures are then poised to increase slightly through early next week.

The main threat over the next two days will be locally heavy rainfall. Where storms train over the same area or if rainfall rates are high enough, some flash flooding is possible. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has our area outlooked for a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall today along and southwest of a line from Waynesboro, MS to Crestview, FL, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) across all of our CWA zones on Friday.

High temperatures will be near normal (around 90 degrees) through the weekend before increasing to above normal Monday through the middle of next week. Lows will remain slightly above normal through the entire forecast, ranging from around 70 degrees inland to around 75 degrees along the coast.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through the remainder of the month. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are in place at issuance time. Throughout the remainder of the morning, light to moderate showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms, will spread into the area from the west. This rainfall should start to dissipate by the early afternoon hours. Additional thunderstorm development is possible during the afternoon. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Rain chances should begin to decrease by the evening hours, with VFR conditions in place for tonight. /96

MARINE

Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A light southwesterly flow will be in place through tonight, becoming more variable for Friday. Winds become southeasterly for the weekend and into early next week. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day with locally higher seas and winds near storms. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 89 71 88 71 / 70 50 50 20 Pensacola 89 74 87 74 / 70 50 60 40 Destin 88 75 86 75 / 50 50 70 30 Evergreen 90 70 89 69 / 80 50 60 20 Waynesboro 90 71 92 69 / 80 40 40 10 Camden 89 71 89 70 / 60 50 50 10 Crestview 91 70 88 69 / 70 40 70 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.