textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening (and possibly Monday afternoon) with gusty downburst winds being the main threat.

- Moderate risk of rip currents on Tuesday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Peak heat index increases to around 105-107 tomorrow with the HeatRisk soaring into the Major category.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Storms continue to develop and drift south early this afternoon as the cu field blossoms across the entire area. As we roll through the rest of today, strong to severe storms dropping into the region from the north remain possible this afternoon and evening. A shortwave sliding through the flow aloft will provide a focus for the development of clusters of storms, and combined with ample instability (especially north of the coastline) and steep lapse rates, will result in the potential for more robust convection late this afternoon into the evening hours. CAMs continue to provide a wide range of solutions for convection this evening, but our current thinking is that storms will drift into our area from the north, especially for areas east of I-65, late this afternoon with convection dwindling by 10-11pm. Gusty downburst winds are the predominant threat in any strong to severe storms later today.

The local area remains on the eastern side of a ridge aloft through Labor Day with northerly flow ushering in drier air aloft by the afternoon hours. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible in the afternoon and early evening hours with strong, gusty winds being the main threat again. Afternoon mixing with much drier air aloft will allow dewpoints to fall into the low 70s across inland communities in the afternoon hours. Note that the downward adjustment from the NBM dewpoints, which were far too high throughout much of Monday, was the only significant deviation/change on this forecast update. While it will certainly be hot on Labor Day, these lower dewpoints should generally prevent the area from exceeding criteria for a Heat Advisory.

Ridging aloft nudges further into the Southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday with the development of deep layer easterly flow. The ridge aloft quickly breaks down as we head deeper into the week as a trough swings across the Midwest on its way toward the East Coast while a potentially subtle upper low drifts west across the northern Gulf. Diurnally driven showers and storms are expected throughout the rest of the week in this general pattern.

Beach Forecast - LOW risk continues through the long holiday weekend. The risk increases to MODERATE by Tuesday afternoon before the falling back to LOW for the remainder of the week. 07/mb

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon outside of very isolated SHRA/TSRA activity along the seabreeze. We are expecting a cluster of scattered SHRA/TSRA this evening east of the Tombigbee River moving southward toward the coast. Added a PROB30 group from 07/03z thru 07/07z for the KPNS/KJKA TAF sites for gusty northerly winds and MVFR visibilities (possibly could be lower). VFR conditions will prevail in the wake of this activity through noon Labor Day. /22

MARINE

Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Waterspouts are possible throughout the morning hours over the next several days. No other significant impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 94 74 90 / 20 50 30 50 Pensacola 77 91 76 88 / 20 40 50 60 Destin 78 89 76 88 / 20 40 60 60 Evergreen 72 96 71 91 / 40 40 40 40 Waynesboro 73 98 72 93 / 20 30 30 30 Camden 73 97 72 91 / 30 20 40 20 Crestview 73 94 72 90 / 30 50 60 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.