textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat.

- Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106 degree range through Wednesday.

- A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area late this week into the weekend.

AVIATION UPDATE

Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Provided amendments for sea breeze convection at KMOB, KBFM, and KPNS until 23z. Isolated convection has initiated along sea breeze convergence, as daytime heating is reaching its peak. Activity is expected to be sporadic before tapering off into the evening hours. Otherwise the forecast remains as expected. /KL

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The area remains in a northeasterly upper flow pattern between an upper ridge to the west and an upper low over central Florida. The upper ridge will continue to move westward and weaken while the upper low gets absorbed into the upper level flow and moves northeast by Tuesday. Precipitable water values continue to increase as Atlantic moisture moves into the area around the upper low. The weakening ridge along with increasing moisture will allow scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms to develop this afternoon and move southwest. The ridge rebuilds to our west Tuesday into Wednesday with rain chances decreasing. A weak front moves through the area late Wednesday into Thursday with a drier airmass moving into the area. The lack of significant moisture ahead of the front along with the upper ridge will keep conditions dry as the front moves through. A dry northwest upper flow continues into the weekend.

Above normal temps in the low to mid 90s continue through midweek before some slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area behind the front late in the week. This will return high temps to back near/slightly above normal. The drier airmass will allow lows to drop into the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast for the end of the week into the weekend. /13

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. Storms coverage is more likely from southeast Mississippi to west central Alabama, with uncertainty if any storm clusters can push southward towards the gulf coast with confidence being too low at this time to include in the TAF. Southerly winds will calm overnight, before another morning of northeast to easterly flow is expected. /KL

MARINE

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds becoming onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and persists through Friday. Seas will be around 1 foot, then slowly build to 3 to 5 feet Thursday into Friday. Small craft may occasionally need to exercise caution over the open Gulf Thursday into Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 93 73 93 / 20 20 10 10 Pensacola 75 91 75 92 / 10 20 10 20 Destin 76 90 76 92 / 20 20 10 10 Evergreen 69 94 70 94 / 20 20 20 0 Waynesboro 71 95 70 93 / 30 20 10 0 Camden 71 93 71 92 / 20 20 20 0 Crestview 70 92 71 93 / 20 20 20 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.