textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- A tropical disturbance in the Southwest Gulf has a High (80 percent) chance of developing into a Tropical Depression during midweek as it moves northeastward. Regardless of the track, there is an increasing potential of heavy rainfall late this week.

- A High Risk of rip currents will occur Tuesday through the remainder of the week. A Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet.

- Moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds will create hazardous for small craft throughout the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Forecast is on track with no significant updates necessary. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

After a multi-day rain event late last week and over the weekend, our focus turns to another multi-day rain event late this week and over the weekend as a tropical system potentially forms over the Gulf. Not exactly the Octobers we are accustomed to. In addition, we are also focused on impactful beach and marine hazards throughout the week due to moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds.

Latest surface analysis is showing a cold frontal boundary and a weak low pressure area just off the coast, with a large high pressure system to our north. A drier airmass north of this front will continue to advect into the region from the northeast through into Thursday. This will allow the forecast area a chance to dry out prior to an increase in precipitation chances late in the week. For today, we are expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms along the coast in close proximity to the surface front and low pressure area through mid-afternoon until the drier air pushes offshore. Rain-free conditions will then occur across the entire forecast area from late this afternoon through Thursday night.

With the moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds over the marine area courtesy of a tight surface pressure gradient, there will be beach and marine hazards to contend with. A Coastal Hazard Message has been issued for a High Risk of rip currents returning Tuesday that will persist through the remainder of the week. A Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet. In addition, higher winds and seas will create hazardous for small craft throughout the week.

A tropical disturbance in the Southwest Gulf has a High (80 percent) chance of developing into a Tropical Depression during midweek as it moves northeastward. Regardless of the track, there is an increasing potential of heavy rainfall late this week. It is too early to determine other potential impacts at this time.

High temperatures today will be in the lower to middle 80s west of I-65 and the upper 70s to lower 80s to the east where clouds will linger. High temperatures will then be in the lower to middle 80s through Friday. Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 60s tonight, cooling slightly Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Beach Forecast: A HIGH risk of rip currents will occur Tuesday through the remainder of the week. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail through much of the day. Isolated showers will be possible this morning over the Florida panhandle. Conditions improve late this afternoon to VFR. Northeasterly winds around 10 knots may be gusty at times along the immediate coastline. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A cold front will continue to push across the water today with strengthening easterly to northeasterly winds. Seas increase to 4-8 feet creating rough conditions offshore. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through late week. Conditions may worsen late in the week and into the weekend due to the potential for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 67 84 65 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 79 69 82 68 / 30 10 0 10 Destin 80 69 83 69 / 50 10 10 0 Evergreen 83 62 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 85 63 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 61 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 78 64 82 62 / 10 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.