textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026 - A much colder and drier airmass moves into the area in the wake of a strong cold front, with several reinforcing shots of cool, dry air through the weekend. - A light freeze is expected early Saturday morning and Sunday morning across the northern portion of the area.

- A surge of strong easterly winds early next week will lead to advisory level conditions with the potential for gusts to gale force.

UPDATE

Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Forecast remains on track early this morning with temperatures trending about 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday morning. No changes to the forecast were necessary. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1050 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

As of tonight, a large upper level low centered over the Great Lakes is providing a belt of west-northwesterly flow aloft across the Southeast. As we progress towards the weekend, the upper level low will pivot east accompanied by a couple of shortwaves that will enhance northwesterly flow aiding in the southern advancement of a cold and dry Canadian prairie airmass into the Gulf Coast states. As such the first freeze of the season is expected during the overnight hours this weekend for areas along and north of Highway 84. With current guidance consistency, the Freeze watch for those counties is likely to be upgraded to Freeze Warning for Friday night into Saturday morning with the possibility of another Freeze Watch issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning. With light winds and clear skies it is possible for some localized lows to reach the upper 20s near the northern periphery while elsewhere widespread low temps below 40 are expected for much of the rest of the CWA for those respective nights, with exceptions present along the immediate Gulf Coast.

The cold and dry airmass remains in place until a subtle progressive ridge pushes into the area from the west on Sunday which prompts a slight warming trend bring lows back to at or above freezing. This is quickly followed by a nearly cutoff upper level low that propagates across the southern plains into the area by Monday. This looks to usher in enhanced west-southwesterly flow and increased moisture, though with surface low track and timing uncertainty pops remain at or below 30% at this time. Additionally with a large surface high to the north, an enhanced gradient will result in increased east-northeasterly winds, especially over much of the marine area with wind gusts approaching gale force during the latter half of Monday. The cutoff low then looks to break down to an open wave and progress across the southeastern states, and a high pressure ridge looks to settle in for the remainder of the period. This prompts a warming trend back to at or slightly above climatological normals with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows back to comfortably above freezing.

Low Rip Current risk will continue into the weekend before ramping up to moderate by Sunday afternoon and to high by Monday afternoon.

KL/31

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period with northwesterly winds. Gusts of 15-20 knots are possible through the afternoon hours, especially across the southern portion of the area. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Small craft should exercise caution offshore through Saturday morning due to periods of moderate to strong offshore flow. Strong easterly flow develops early next week with advisory level conditions expected and a low-end potential for gusts to gale force. Seas build to greater than 7 feet across the near and offshore Gulf waters in response to the strengthening winds early next week. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 67 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 68 43 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 67 44 61 45 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 63 33 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 61 32 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 59 32 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 66 35 59 34 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for ALZ051>058.

FL...None. MS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for MSZ067.

GM...None.