textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 - A mix of rain and light snow is possible for much of the area late Saturday night until mid Sunday morning.

- Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft late Saturday through Sunday.

- A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Monday night as wind chills fall into the upper teens to middle 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Now through Friday...

Taking a look at the big picture, a series of lobes of shortwave energy swirl around an upper low over the Great Lakes through the weekend. A weak cold front moves south across the forecast area tonight in response to a first passing around the base of the upper low today, eventually stalling over our offshore zones or a bit further south by Saturday. Another cold front moves south over the forecast area late Saturday into Saturday night in response to a stronger lobe digging southeast over the eastern Conus. Isentropic upglide precipitation sets up over the Southeast north of the stalled front, with general coverage being south of I-20. By Monday, a shallow upper trough has set up over most of the Conus, with several upper level shortwaves moving through the flow during the coming week.

Taking a closer look at the happenings over the forecast area, tonight through the weekend is a challenge, with wish-washy interpretations in the guidance leading to differing resultant precipitation types and coverage, mainly Saturday night into Sunday. Am expecting rain showers tonight, with cooler, but well above freezing, air moving over the forecast. Rainfall amounts are expected to be low, with the airmass over the forecast area and nearby being dry. As the second upper shortwave and front move across the area, increasing isentropic upglide precipitation sets up over the area, with coverage limited by how much drier boundary layer air moves south over the forecast area, along with how much moves over the forecast area and how fast with the second reinforcing front, and where the previous front has stalled. Best timing and placement of frozen precipitation mixed in with the liquid precipitation are two items that are consistent, with placement being along and south of a Perry County to Wilcox County line, and beginning soon after midnight Saturday night. Amounts that hit the ground vary, with varying strength of the upglide, along with temperatures of the boundary layer. Anywheres from several inches to nothing at all is advertised by the guidance. Consensus is less than 0.10" over most of the area where it falls, with up to 0.25" over the eastern border of the forecast area. Accumulation on the ground will vary, with the ground, roadways and bridges seeing too much above freezing time Saturday (with temperatures expected to top out in the low 50s northwest of the Alabama River to low 60s over the Florida Panhandle near coastal areas). Elevated surface may see a bit of an accumulation. Too soon for a Winter Wx Advisory to be issued, so am holding off. Not to forget, temperatures for the first 5 periods of the forecast see a drop, with the afore mentioned high temperatures for Saturday dropping into the mid to upper 40s for Sunday. Low temperatures ranging from around 40 to around 50 tonight drop into the upper 20s northwest of the Alabama River to low/mid 30s southeast of I-65 Saturday night, before dropping into the mid to upper 20s for Sunday night as a colder and drier airmass moves over the forecast area behind the second front.

For the coming week, surface high pressure has moved over the northern Gulf coast by Monday morning before shifting north over the Southeast into Tuesday, keeping the forecast area under dry northerly flow into mid week, when another upper level shortwave moving through the flow over the Southeast, shifts the surface high east and returns onshore flow to the forecast area. Temperatures increase from well below seasonal norms Monday to above seasonal norms by mid week, with rain returning for Thursday.

With general offshore flow through the forecast, the Rip Current Risk remains low to low moderate through the forecast. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 506 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

South to southwest winds around 10 knots diminish to 5-10 knots this evening, then switch to the northwest late tonight as a cold front moves through. As the front moves through during the late night hours, scattered to numerous showers are expected west of I-65 with scattered showers east of I-65. Scattered showers will continue to be possible mainly east of I-65 through the day on Saturday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period except for MVFR conditions with the stronger showers. /29

MARINE

Issued at 123 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A cold front will move over area waters tonight, with a second moving over the area late Saturday Saturday night will bring strong offshore flow to area waters Saturday night through Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued. Surface high pressure moves over area waters later Sunday through Sunday night, bringing lighter, more variable flow for the beginning of the week. Moderate to at times strong offshore flow returns late Tuesday into Tuesday night as another front moves over area waters. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 47 57 33 49 / 30 30 30 10 Pensacola 51 59 36 48 / 30 40 60 20 Destin 53 64 36 49 / 30 50 80 30 Evergreen 43 56 30 48 / 30 30 40 10 Waynesboro 41 52 28 45 / 70 20 10 0 Camden 42 53 29 44 / 50 30 20 10 Crestview 46 60 32 48 / 20 40 70 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630-631-633>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for GMZ632-650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ670-675.