textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 - A MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue through tonight for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, becoming a HIGH risk Wednesday through the remainder of the week.

- Periods of showers and storms will affect the area through the week with an increasing risk of flooding issues.

- Moderate to strong winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft from Wednesday night through Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A cloudy and rainy week lies ahead as our region lies at the base of a longwave trough extending from the Rockies to the East Coast into midweek. With the increase in clouds and rain, high temps will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s today, followed by the middle 80s through Thursday and the middle to upper 80s the remainder of the week. Although the trough retreats northward midweek, an upper low pressure area will move slowly northeastward along the Texas coast today and Wednesday before lessoning to a shortwave over the lower Mississippi River on Thursday. It is possible that a weak surface low pressure area could form near the southeast Texas coast today. This surface low should dissipate by Wednesday afternoon and not effect our area. A continuous fetch of deep moisture will persist through Friday with PWATs mostly ranging from 2.2 to 2.4 inches.

Flash Flooding Potential...

We issued a Flash Flood Watch for our southeast Mississippi zones for today through Thursday afternoon as there is increasing confidence in periods of heavy rain as mid/upper level impulses and shortwave energy moves through the base of the longwave through tonight, and then along the eastern periphery of the shortwave. The entire area remains under a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance today. The Slight Risk remains across southeast Mississippi on Wednesday with a Marginal Risk elsewhere, followed by a Slight Risk returning Thursday across nearly our entire area. The Flash Flood Watch may need to expanded eastward in future forecast packages based on the latest model guidance and if forecast confidence increases. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible at times with widespread total rainfall amounts inland areas ranging from 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher totals possibles. Instances of flash flooding will occur where banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms with high precipitation rates occur.

Other Potential Impacts...

We will need to monitor for the potential for strong to severe storms on Thursday as upper-level diffluence spreads across the Deep South in response to the upper trough to our west. A strong series of shortwaves also move across the area with an 850 mb resulting in increasing bulk shear values to around 40 knots. In addition, MLCAPE values potentially reach as high as 2500J/kg. looking at the potential coastal flooding due to increasing southerly winds, P-ETSS guidance shows that water levels could approach 1.7 ft MHHW around Mobile Bay Wednesday afternoon and Thursday from late morning into the early evening. Lower values of near 1-1.5 ft MHHW are expected elsewhere such as Dauphin Island and along the western Florida panhandle. Will need to monitor these time periods for potential minor coastal flooding. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A mixed bag of conditions across the forecast area will continue across the area as an approaching upper level shortwave trough brings isentropic upglide flow over a stalled surface front over the area. Add in periods of rain, impacts to operations are to be expected. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots are expected south of the boundary, northwest to north north of the boundary. /16

MARINE

Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds become southwesterly tonight then gradually trend to a moderate to strong southerly flow by Wednesday night. The onshore flow transitions to a light to moderate southwesterly flow on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for much of the marine area from Wednesday night through Thursday night. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 72 86 78 / 90 70 70 60 Pensacola 84 76 87 81 / 90 80 70 40 Destin 86 76 86 80 / 90 80 70 40 Evergreen 78 70 86 75 / 100 70 70 40 Waynesboro 77 70 87 75 / 100 30 60 60 Camden 76 69 85 74 / 100 50 70 40 Crestview 82 71 86 77 / 90 80 80 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...None.