textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Rain chances increase today into Saturday with the potential for locally heavy rainfall mainly Friday and Saturday. A few strong storms capable of producing strong wind gusts will be possible.

- High temperature are expected to increase next week with heat indices potentially ranging from 100-107 degrees.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The upper over the Southeastern U.S. will breakdown through this evening as an upper shortwave exits the Upper Mississippi River and passes over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. A weak surface boundary associated with the upper shortwave is expected to make it as far south as the Tennessee Valley before stalling and dissipating. A second upper trough forming west of our area will become more amplified going into Friday and persist through the remainder of the week. Deep southerly to southwesterly flow will aid to increase PWATs back to around 2.1-2.3", resulting in a substantial increase in precipitation through the remainder of the week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across our coastal communities this morning will expand in coverage northward, followed by scattered to numerous coverage across our entire area this afternoon. After a brief drop off in convection this evening, activity is anticipated to once again spout up across our coastal communities after midnight. Numerous widespread coverage on Friday and Saturday, maximizing during the afternoon hours, could result in isolated instances of flooding both days where storms possibly train or sit over the same areas for prolonged periods, with the greatest risk south of Highway 84. In addition, a few strong storms capable of producing strong wind gusts will be possible.

High temperatures ranging from 88-93 degrees today will lower several degrees the rest of the week as cloud cover and rain chances increase. With slightly lower rain chances through the first half of next week due to an upper ridge rebuilding across our region, high temperatures should rebound back to 90-95 degrees with heat indices potentially ranging from 100-107 degrees. Low temperatures should remain in the lower to middle 70s through the forecast. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR flight category prevails through tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and storms late this morning into the afternoon may temporarily reduce ceiling and visibility by several flight categories at times. Winds remain light out of the east this morning below 5 knots before turning southerly this afternoon. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Light onshore flow returns for the rest of the week into the weekend. Seas subside to around 1 foot today through the remainder of the forecast. Waterspouts are possible early each morning. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 88 74 88 73 / 70 60 70 50 Pensacola 88 77 88 77 / 60 60 70 50 Destin 88 78 87 78 / 50 40 60 50 Evergreen 92 71 89 71 / 60 20 80 30 Waynesboro 93 72 90 72 / 50 20 80 30 Camden 92 72 89 72 / 40 20 80 40 Crestview 90 72 89 73 / 60 40 60 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.