textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 653 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday, with periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding. Any stronger storms will also be capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

- A High risk of rip currents develops along the Northwest Florida beaches today through Tuesday. A Moderate risk continues for the remainder of area beaches through Friday.

- Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the triple digits.

UPDATE

Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

We are monitoring a line of thunderstorms entering into the northern portion of our forecast area. Radar base velocities and surface observations are indicating some gusty winds to 30-40 mph with the stronger convection. Recent Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) do show this convection weakening through the evening hours before dissipating near the Highway-84 corridor. We do not anticipate any severe storms with this line, but may be issuing Special Weather Statements from time to time. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A broad upper low with an associated surface low continues to drift slowly southward into northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. Meanwhile, the low-level convergence boundary that resulted in numerous showers with locally heavy rainfall near the coast this morning has drifted well offshore, leaving widespread cloud cover and areas of light to occasionally moderate rain across southern portions of the forecast area. The persistent clouds and rainfall have kept temperatures unseasonably cool, with a couple spots remaining in the 70s. Because low-level convergence and instability have been limited over land, the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding has decreased for much of the area. The main focus for heavier showers and storms this afternoon and evening should remain over northern portions of the area, generally north of Highway 84, where some destabilization closer to the low pressure center is occurring. Elsewhere, expect widespread cloud cover and a few showers to continue, but cannot rule out redevelopment of a few heavier showers and storms by late afternoon with a very moist and saturated atmospheric profile in place.

By Tuesday, the surface low is expected to begin drifting westward from central AL into MS and the coastal convergence boundary will be pushing well offshore. Compared to today, less cloud cover should allow for greater destabilization across inland ares, and when combined with lingering high atmospheric moisture, will support numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the interior, with more scattered coverage expected closer to the coast. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall remains in place areawide for Tuesday to account for any training or slow-moving storms that develop, which may lead to localized flash flooding. Any stronger storms will also be capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds.

Rain chances decrease noticeably by Wednesday and Thursday (with isolated to scattered coverage at best) as the upper low retrogrades westward and upper ridging builds over the northern Gulf. Hotter conditions will return during the latter half of the week, with highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s and heat indices topping out in the upper 90s to 107 range.

Predictability decreases heading into the weekend as guidance indicates increased moisture approaching from the east and a cutoff low developing over the southeastern states and potentially into the northeast Gulf. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding how far west this system ultimately tracks, but it bears watching as it could lead to some increasing rain chances this weekend.

At the beaches, a High risk of rip currents continues along the Northwest Florida beaches through Tuesday night. A Moderate risk of rip currents continues for the remainder of the Alabama and western Florida Panhandle beaches through Friday. JGC/98

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday afternoon outside of brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities in and around showers and thunderstorms. Light westerly winds will continue with brief gusty winds to 35 knots possible with the stronger storms. /22

MARINE

Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A moderate to occasionally strong westerly flow is expected through this evening, transitioning to a light to occasionally moderate general westerly flow through the remainder of the week. Seas 3 to 5 feet through early Tuesday will settle to 2 to 4 feet by Tuesday, and remaining generally 2 feet or less for the remainder of the week. Expect higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms, which may be numerous to widespread once again on Tuesday morning. JGC/98

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 87 71 90 / 20 50 20 10 Pensacola 74 87 75 91 / 30 40 50 20 Destin 76 87 77 89 / 60 60 50 20 Evergreen 69 86 69 90 / 30 80 40 30 Waynesboro 71 85 70 89 / 50 70 40 30 Camden 70 83 69 87 / 70 80 60 40 Crestview 70 87 70 91 / 30 70 40 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650- 655-670-675.