textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Strong to severe storms remain possible through early this evening with strong to damaging microburst winds being the main threat.

- Moderate risk of rip currents Tuesday and Wednesday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue across the area early this evening. Primary hazards with storms will remain strong to damaging wind gusts in addition to frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. Storms should relax by mid to late evening with an isolated shower/storm lingering into the early overnight hours. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Storms are finally beginning to develop inland as of 19Z after convection lingered along the coastline throughout the morning hours. This afternoon will have another round of scattered storms dropping in from the north featuring ample instability, minimal/non- existent shear, and ample dry air aloft. Some strong storms are possible late this afternoon into the early evening hours with the predominant threat being gusty downburst winds given the dry air aloft noted in the soundings. Convection should steadily wane after sunset, although a few storms may linger into the late evening hours.

As we head into the overnight hours and tomorrow, the ridge aloft nudges deeper into the Southeast. This pattern shift will allow our dry-ish northerly flow aloft to turn easterly through mid-week. Flow aloft turns onshore on Thursday as the ridge gets flattened by a trough pivoting into the East Coast. Meanwhile, a parade of subtle shortwaves pivot across the region throughout the week in this pattern, which will lead to a somewhat higher coverage in showers and storms each afternoon in the middle to latter half of the week. This slightly more active diurnal convective pattern will keep daytime highs in check with no extreme heat concerns through the remainder of the week.

Beach Forecast - LOW rip current risk continues through tonight before increasing to a MODERATE risk tomorrow through Wednesday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The risk falls to LOW for the remainder of the week. 07/mb

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Outside of storms, VFR flight category will prevail across the region. Underneath storms, temporary reductions in ceiling and visibility to IFR or LIFR can be expected through the remainder of the evening. Overnight into Tuesday, VFR flight category should prevail. An isolated storm or two is possible west of the I-65 corridor during the afternoon hours Tuesday. Winds will gradually turn out of the east at 5 to 10 knots tonight, increasing near the coast to around 10 to 15 knots by mid morning Tuesday. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Waterspouts are possible in the morning hours over the next several days. No other significant impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 91 74 88 / 50 20 20 60 Pensacola 77 88 77 88 / 30 10 20 60 Destin 77 88 77 89 / 30 20 30 60 Evergreen 72 93 72 93 / 30 10 10 40 Waynesboro 73 93 72 94 / 30 20 10 30 Camden 73 93 73 93 / 30 10 0 20 Crestview 72 90 72 91 / 20 10 10 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.