textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Increasing concern for severe storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the potential for strong tornadoes (up to EF2 in intensity) and strong, damaging winds (70+mph).

- High risk of rip currents for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches tonight into Thursday.

- Patchy dense fog is possible in the pre-dawn hours this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Fog remains the main concern this morning before all eyes turn to the potential for storms tonight. Patchy, potentially dense, fog will develop over the next several hours, especially across the southern portion of the area. Guidance isn't as aggressive with the fog signal in the pre-dawn hours this morning across inland counties.

Meanwhile, a potent shortwave trough progresses across Texas this morning and afternoon and quickly pivots across the northern Gulf Coast. Isolated showers are possible west of I-65 this afternoon in the increasing onshore flow. Some of the guidance shows a surface low developing in the evening hours and passing north of our area. CAMs are showing more than ample shear and instability spreading overhead by midnight as a squall line slides into the area. There has been a trend in some of the recent CAMs for a few isolated severe storms to develop out in front of the line by 9-10pm across southeast Mississippi, along with a slightly faster progression of the line. Given the improvement in the environment out ahead of this squall line, we are starting to become more concerned with the potential for strong tornadoes (up to EF2 in intensity) and strong, damaging winds (70+mph). The line will be knocking on our doorstep as early as 10-11pm (impacting our southeast Mississippi counties first) and quickly sliding east to the I-65 corridor as early as 12- 1am. Latest high-res guidance has the line of storms east of our area by 6am, which is a solid 2-4 hours earlier than the high-res guidance showed yesterday. We will note that some of the latest guidance is showing more discrete activity along a broken line focused across our southernmost counties (rather than a solid squall line), which is certainly a possibility, but does not really change the overall impacts of a few strong tornadoes and the potential for strong, damaging winds. While SPC does now have the entire area highlighted in a SLIGHT (level 2 of 5 risk) risk, we would not be surprised if the risk is increased again across a portion of our area. Heavy rainfall (1.5-2.5 inches) is also expected, but the overall progressive nature of this line should limit the potential for flooding.

In the wake of the line of storms and front, gusty northerly winds are expected throughout the day on Thursday as a surface high builds into the region. The area remains dry through much of the weekend with isolated showers possible late Sunday afternoon. Another strong cold front swings across the area late Sunday into early Monday. Temperatures will crater behind this next front with highs in the 50s-60s on both Monday and Tuesday with lows tanking into the 30s- 40s area-wide both nights.

Beach Forecast - HIGH risk for rip currents remains in effect tonight through Thursday with the risk quickly dropping to a LOW Friday through the weekend. 07/mb

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

IFR to LIFR ceilings continue to spread across the local area this morning. These low ceilings should linger through mid morning before finally rising to VFR by late morning. Some patchy fog development also remains possible prior to sunrise, possibly bringing temporary reductions in visibilities. VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon. Ceilings will lower once again this evening. Southerly to southwesterly winds of around 5-10 knots this morning will increase to around 10-15 knots by late morning/early afternoon. Gusts during the afternoon may reach 20-25 knots in spots. /96

MARINE

Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Patchy fog remains possible near the coast this morning. Southerly flow will gradually increase through the day ahead of a cold front. A line of storms is expected to pass over the marine area overnight with small craft conditions expected in the increasing northerly flow behind the line of storms. Small craft conditions will persist through Thursday evening. Another round of small craft conditions to potentially gale conditions is expected early next week. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 54 67 43 / 10 90 40 0 Pensacola 78 58 68 48 / 10 90 50 0 Destin 76 60 69 49 / 10 80 70 0 Evergreen 85 52 66 39 / 10 90 50 0 Waynesboro 83 48 64 39 / 30 100 20 0 Camden 83 48 62 40 / 10 100 40 0 Crestview 82 56 70 41 / 10 90 60 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 5 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670-675.