textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon this week, particularly across the southern half of the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Hot conditions continue, with heat indices topping out at around 102-107 degrees each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A much more active weather pattern is expected this week as our local area remains underneath a northwesterly flow pattern aloft. This flow is the result of a building ridge over the Rockies and longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region. Over the coming days, several embedded shortwaves are expected to push through this flow and pass overhead, helping to provide large scale ascent to the local region. Pairing this with PWATs of around 2 inches and a highly unstable environment due to strong diurnal heating, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours.

Latest CAMs suggest that this coming afternoon/evening may be one of the more active days this week as a rather stout shortwave pushes into the local area. Although storms over our area may initially develop along the sea breeze boundary by the coast and spread via outflow boundaries, guidance is also suggesting that upstream storms, sparked by the shortwave aloft, may organize into an MCS and push southeastward throughout the day. Although a bit uncertain as to how much of the local area will be impacted by this MCS, confidence is higher for locations west of the Tombigbee River at this time. Although any storm that develops today will be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall, the greatest threat for strong to severe weather will come with this MCS. Right now guidance has this MCS entering our Mississippi counties by as early as 2PM and pushing off the Alabama coast by or before 8PM. Damaging winds will be the greatest hazard from this complex. Heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding is also a concern. Latest HREF 24hr LPMMs suggest 3-5 inches of rain over portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, along with localized maximums of around 5-7 inches. If storms can train over the same areas for a long period of time, then these values may become realized. Rain chances quickly diminish this evening in the wake of the MCS.

As stated before, daily chances for scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected throughout the remainder of the week. Highest coverage looks to be over our coastal counties thanks to development along the sea breeze boundary. Each day comes with the risk of gusty to locally damaging downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding concerns. Some guidance suggests that another MCS may travel within the northwesterly flow and impact portions of the local area midweek. If this were to happen, then similar to today, damaging winds would be the primary impact. We will monitor trends closely over the coming days.

With the increase in rain chances, high temperatures are expected to trend back to seasonal norms. Highs in the low to mid 90s today should decrease to the upper 80s to low 90s by midweek. Heat indices throughout the period should generally remain just below Heat Advisory criteria (around 102-107), although a few localized spots of 108-110 degrees cannot be ruled out along the coast. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the upper 70s along the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the week. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight and into the morning hours on Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms should start to develop across the area by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. A few strong to severe storms, capable of producing gusty/erratic winds cannot be ruled out. Light and variable winds tonight will become a light northwesterly to westerly flow by the mid to late morning hours. Winds along the coast may become more southerly by the afternoon. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern continues through this week. Winds are expected to shift from southwesterly each afternoon to northwesterly late each night. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning during next week with locally higher seas and winds near storms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 97 75 95 74 / 30 10 60 40 Pensacola 96 78 93 77 / 30 30 50 40 Destin 93 80 91 78 / 10 10 40 50 Evergreen 99 72 97 71 / 20 20 40 50 Waynesboro 99 73 97 73 / 20 20 50 40 Camden 96 73 95 72 / 10 10 30 40 Crestview 98 73 95 72 / 20 20 50 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.