textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat.

- Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 98-104 degree range through Wednesday.

- A cooler and drier airmass moves into the area late this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Through Thursday...a closed upper low over the Florida Gulf coast has opened into a mean upper trough over the Southeast, shifts east as an upper high over the Southern Plains builds over the Southeast. A closed upper low meanders around over the northeastern Conus, and in combination with a surface low organizing off the East Coast, shifts a surface boundary north of the Southeast south over the region. The push initially is greater west of the Mississippi River, shifting a drier airmass southeast over the Southeast, and dropping precipitable h20 values around 2" over the forecast area southward. Guidance is advertising precipitable h20 level to the 1.4"-1.6" by Wednesday night and 1"-1.3" by Thursday night. In combination with the building upper ridge, isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, with a dry Wednesday and Thursday. As with this time of the year, enough instability, both MLCapes (around 2500J/kg) and DCapes (700-A light, diurnally driven flow is expected through mid week. A cold front moving over area waters Wednesday night into Thursday will bring a more moderate northeasterly flow for the rest of the week into the weekend. /161000J/kg) are enough for a few strong to marginally severe pulse type storms to be possible Tuesday. The surface low off the East Coast moves north along the East Coast though the end of the week as the upper low over the Northeast swirls south over the East Coast, bringing a cooler airmass (dare I say a cool front) to go with the drier air that has moved over the Southeast.

Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms through mid week, with high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range Tuesday and Wednesday. The aforementioned cooler air begins to move southeast across the forecast area, with high temperatures Thursday ranging from the upper 80s over the northeastern half of the forecast area to low 90s southwest and near the coast. Heat indices in the 98 to 104 degree range Tuesday and Wednesday drop into the 90-99 degree range Thursday as the cooler air combines with the drop in moisture levels. Low temperatures see the same drop, from low to mid 70s Tuesday night to mid 60s to around 70 Thursday night.

Friday through Monday, the upper low over the East Coast swirls around for another day or two before organizing into a deep upper low over the Mid Atlantic coast and moving off. This shifts the upper high over the Southern Plains south over old Mexico. The drop in temperatures closer to seasonal norms remains through the weekend, with coolest temperatures being over the northeastern/eastern half of the forecast area.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, generally light flow over the Gulf will keep the rip risk low through mid week. A more moderate easterly flow sets up along the northern Gulf coast the end of the week into the coming week, bringing a moderate to high risk of rip currents in the coming weekend. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Showers and storms with potentially MVFR conditions will mainly affect coastal Alabama from 06-07Z, with patchy fog possible mainly over interior areas later on into the night. VFR conditions are otherwise anticipated, except may see some isolated convective development with MVFR conditions from Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Winds become calm or light and variable overnight, then a predominately northeasterly flow around 5 knots develops on Tuesday, with a switch to a southerly direction anticipated near the immediate coast in the afternoon. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

A light, diurnally driven flow is expected through mid week. A cold front moving over area waters Wednesday night into Thursday will bring a more moderate northeasterly flow for the rest of the week into the weekend. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 72 93 72 / 20 10 0 0 Pensacola 91 75 92 75 / 10 10 10 0 Destin 90 76 92 75 / 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 93 69 93 68 / 20 10 0 0 Waynesboro 94 70 93 67 / 10 10 10 0 Camden 93 70 92 69 / 20 10 0 0 Crestview 92 70 93 71 / 10 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.