textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 448 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area this weekend into early next week. Lows in the 40's can be expected widespread across the area, to even mid to upper 30's for inland/northern areas where patchy frost will be possible.

- Moderate to occasional strong northerly winds over the Gulf tonight into the weekend will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

UPDATE

Issued at 448 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Performed a brief gridded update this morning to bring in recent short-range guidance matched with trends. No major changes, as all is rather quiet this morning other than some upper-level patchy cirrus spreading in from the west, downstream of a shortwave trough over NW mexico, where downstream SW flow over the MX plateau is spreading moisture our way. Building CAA per proximity soundings form a reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air will make it feel noticably cooler today reaching the mid to upper 60's to low 70's closer to the coast underneath thin/patchy cirrus throughout the day. Tonight we'll get a true feel of the cooler air filtering into the region with lows in the mid to upper 30's for interior parts of AL, to 40's all the way to the coast. Guidance generally looks good honestly, with deterministic NBM values right below the 50th percentile but above the 25th, and noticed the deterministic cooler tonight than previous nights (but verified well the previous nights) - meaning, it's on the right track biasing slightly cooler already which, typically struggles at these new anomalously cold airmasses early on in transitional seasons. Will caution, it's plausible some areas could be cooler than what we have. Butler reaching 35, Camden 37, there could be some traditionally colder areas/protected areas/basins that tap the lower 30's - but definitely not widespread. Regardless, processes that support frost growth will be in place for the northern tier of counties and will look at frost advisories with the day package later today. Otherwise, no major concerns for the next 12-24 hours. KLG

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A cooler/drier airmass will continue to filter into the local area through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. No rain is expected as PWATs drop to below 0.5 inches by this afternoon. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast. Lows will be quite chilly, with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s north and the low to mid 40s closer to the coast. At this time, ensemble guidance from the NBM and REFS give a less than 10% chance of temperatures dropping below the freezing mark. That being said, these cold temperatures, nearly saturated boundary- layer conditions, and light winds should help to support the development of frost over the northern half of our local area. If confidence continues to increase, we may need to issue a Frost Advisory for portions of our area, given that we are reaching the end of growing season and have yet to have our first freeze of the season. Temperatures slowly start to moderate through midweek as high pressure weakens and pushes directly overhead. Still anticipating dry conditions through Tuesday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s and lows ranging from the low 40s north to the low 50s along the coast.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a southern stream shortwave is expected to quickly push eastward. With upper-level flow turning more southwesterly ahead of this shortwave, some modest moisture return is anticipated prior to the shortwave's passage (PWATs increasing to around 1.0-1.3 inches). This may help to spark a few showers across the area, but overall, coverage should remain rather limited. The next big story will come towards the end of the week as a longwave trough quickly dives southeastward from Canada, digging as far south as the northern Gulf. Long-range guidance suggests that this trough may send a strong cold front southward, potentially dropping temperatures to well below average by the upcoming weekend. Something we will watch over the coming days.

The rip current risk remains low through, at least, the middle of next week. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 448 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast period. Only item to note will be surface winds today out of the north ranging 08-11kts bearing 350-010, but diminishing around sunset with FEW/BKN250 prevailing, becoming SKC tonight. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 129 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Persistent offshore northerly flow continue this morning, reaching 08 to 14kts for protected waters to 14 to 18kts for offshore Gulf zones. Small craft should exercise caution for Gulf waters through noon today. Winds will taper some going into the afternoon but remain light at 08-12 knots, increasing to 12-16kts Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Thereafter, high pressure builds into the region reducing winds to light and variable. Waves will remain light ranging 1-2ft for nearshore Gulf waters to 2-3ft for outer Gulf waters. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 44 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 71 50 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 72 52 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 67 38 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 68 38 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 64 37 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 71 41 72 40 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.