textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1136 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

- A high risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches through Friday.

- Some strong storms may be possible mainly over the western Florida panhandle this afternoon, and over interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama this evening.

- Dense fog is possible into the early evening for portions of the marine area. Hazardous conditions for small craft exists over portions of the open Gulf waters into Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

A central states upper trof takes on a negative tilt while advancing into the eastern states tonight then ejects off into the western Atlantic Friday into Friday night. An associated surface low brings a cold front through the forecast area this evening to shortly after midnight, with a ridge of cool and dry surface high pressure building into the region through Friday. The latest CAMs show that convection will shift eastward across south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle this afternoon, associated with a weakening shortwave trof. Additional convection will accompany the frontal passage tonight, though is anticipated to be weakening and diminishing as the night progresses. Considering the timing of the convection in the CAMs, there is sufficient shear and instability to warrant concern for the potential of strong storms mainly over the western Florida panhandle through about mid afternoon. There is also another period of concern generally over interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama from the early to mid evening hours, though this is mitigated by uncertainty about how much forcing will be available.

Dry conditions follow for Friday and Saturday. An upper trof moves across the northeastern states Saturday night into Sunday then moves off into the western Atlantic Sunday night. An associated surface low well off to the north brings a weakening cold front through the forecast area on Sunday. This looks sufficient to support slight chance to chance pops mainly along and west of I-65 on Sunday where the better deep layer moisture will be present, with rain chances diminishing Sunday night. Dry conditions follow for Monday through Thursday. Lows tonight range from around 40 well inland to the mid/upper 40s near the coast, then highs on Friday range from the mid/upper 50s well inland to around 60 near the coast. Lows Friday night range from the lower/mid 30s inland to the lower 40s at the coast. Saturday will be warmer with highs mostly ranging from the mid 60s to around 70, with somewhat similar values until trending to mostly the lower 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. Lows for Saturday night through Wednesday night tend to range from the 40s well inland to the 50s near the coast. A high risk of rip currents continues through Friday, with a moderate risk for Friday night. A low risk is expected for Saturday and Sunday, then a moderate risk is expected for Monday and Tuesday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Showers with some embedded storms will mostly affect portions of south central Alabama, the western Florida panhandle and coastal Baldwin county until slowly shifting off to the east this afternoon. Additional convection will mainly affect interior areas tonight, with less coverage closer to the coast, as a cold front moves through. Southeasterly winds 5-10 knots become northwest around 10 knots as the front moves through tonight, with the northerly flow diminishing to 5-10 knots on Friday. IFR/MVFR conditions are expected to persist until improving to VFR in the wake of the frontal passage. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Areas of dense marine fog will likely affect Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, and the near shore Alabama waters this afternoon into the early evening hours. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for these areas from noon today until 9 pm this evening. An onshore flow switches to a moderate to strong northwesterly flow tonight as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow diminishes on Friday then becomes southerly on Saturday. A light easterly flow prevails on Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the western Florida Gulf waters, then the Alabama coastal waters are included beginning at 9 pm this evening. The Small Craft Advisory ends at noon on Friday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 44 60 39 70 / 30 0 0 0 Pensacola 48 60 43 65 / 30 0 0 0 Destin 49 62 45 64 / 30 0 0 0 Evergreen 41 58 32 66 / 50 0 0 0 Waynesboro 38 56 34 68 / 60 0 0 0 Camden 39 54 33 65 / 70 0 0 0 Crestview 45 60 33 65 / 30 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>632- 650.

Dense Fog Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ633.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Friday for GMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ655-675.