textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

- Patchy frost will be possible mainly north of highway 84 late tonight into early Sunday morning. A frost advisory is now in effect.

-Small craft will need to exercise caution over the offshore marine waters tonight into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

A rather pleasant week is on tap for the week as dry northwesterly flow will develop over the area today into tonight. A pair of upper lows, one over the central Gulf and the other over the Ohio Valley, will quickly exit stage east over the next 24 hours. High pressure will build over the central US tonight leading to dry northwesterly flow to re-enforce the cooler drier conditions. The only real hazard this week will be the potential for some patchy to maybe areas of frost tonight north of highway 84. Given recent trends in guidance for a little drier across the area, it seems logical that temperatures tonight might get a few degrees cooler which also supports the potential for some frost. HREF and NBM probabilities of surface temperatures less than 38 degrees is around 40-50% north of highway 84 and probability of winds less than 5 mph is roughly 70% across the same area. Thus enough confidence that conditions should support frost development.

The remainder of the week will be dry and gradually warmer. High pressure will slowly flatten out and shift eastward with time leading to more westerly winds aloft by the middle to end of the week. This will support gradual warming period with highs climbing back into the 70s and lows slowly reaching the low 60s by the weekend. No rain chances on the horizon until late in the weekend when a rather subtle upper trough moves across the eastern US. Even then guidance is not overly enthused with this system and would not be surprised if we just end up dry. BB-8

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions, with northwest to north winds 5 to 10 knots expected behind a passing cold front. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Light northerly winds become a more moderate to at times strong offshore Sunday night into Monday behind a front crossing area waters. Small craft should continue to exercise caution tonight over the offshore Gulf waters. Surface high pressure moves over area waters mid week, bringing light and variable winds. A light onshore flow returns the end of the week. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 41 67 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 46 68 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 49 69 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 38 68 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 36 65 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 36 65 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 38 68 39 76 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Monday for ALZ051-053-054.

FL...None. MS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Monday for MSZ067.

GM...None.