textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

- Patchy to areas of fog may develop Friday night across the local area. Fog could be dense in spots. Additionally, there is a low chance for sea fog to develop and linger throughout the day on Saturday across portions of coastal Alabama.

- A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for Sunday night, and cold weather products will likely become necessary.

- Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible over our local Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

High pressure, currently overhead, is expected to push our east later today. This will allow for winds to switch back to a light onshore flow, giving way to milder temperatures and increasing dewpoints. Highs today and tomorrow will range from the upper 60s to low 70s, with lows tonight ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s along the coast. With the increase in low-level moisture, along with light winds and subsidence from the nearby high, fog development is becoming increasingly likely for Friday night into Saturday morning. We will monitor trends throughout the day today to see if a Dense Fog Advisory may become warranted. Although fog should dissipate after sunrise on Saturday for most areas, SREF/HREF probabilities do keep a low potential for sea fog to stick around throughout the day on Saturday over portions of Mobile Bay, the Mississippi sound, and surrounding areas. This potential does make sense, as dew points on Saturday look to rise into the low to mid 60s over water temperatures in the upper 50s. If this potential increases any further, will likely need to add mention of at least patchy fog along the Alabama coast on Saturday.

A strong cold front is still expected to sweep through the local area on Sunday, likely bringing the coldest air of the season for Sunday night and into Monday. Prior to its passage, there should be just enough moisture pooling and weak forcing to allow for the development of widely scattered showers to develop late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. At this time, any rain that does develop should remain light and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Once the front passes through on Sunday, we quickly dry out for the remainder of the day and temperatures are poised to plummet Sunday night due to strong cold air advection. Ensembles continue to trend stronger with this front, likely due to a much more amplified trough aloft. Lows Sunday night mow range from the upper teens north of Highway 84 to the mid 20s along the immediate coastline. Factoring in breezy conditions likely continuing through Sunday night due to a tight pressure gradient, apparent temperatures (wind chills) could drop to as low as 9-15 degrees north of I-10, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. With temperatures and wind chills this low, Cold Weather Advisories will likely become necessary for Sunday night across the entire area. It should be noted that if we trend any colder, then we may need to consider issuing an Extreme Cold Warning. Regardless of which product ultimately gets issued, residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather.

Very cold temperatures continue through Monday night. Even under sunny skies, highs on Monday will likely only remain in the 40s. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s areawide. By Tuesday and into the middle of next week, flow aloft becomes more zonal and high pressure shifts off to our east, allowing for temperatures to quickly moderate. In fact, highs by Thursday may warm back into the low 70s for some spots. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the day and into the early evening. Increasing probability of fog across the southern portion of the area, potentially impacting all TAF sites, after 06z. LIFR to VLIFR conditions are possible in the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1250 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Light onshore flow will persist through Saturday. We will have to monitor for the potential of sea fog developing Friday night and lingering through Saturday. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday through Sunday night. Occasional gusts to gale force may be possible over the Gulf waters. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 70 53 71 50 / 10 10 20 40 Pensacola 69 57 70 55 / 0 10 20 30 Destin 69 59 70 56 / 0 10 20 30 Evergreen 70 48 71 45 / 0 10 20 50 Waynesboro 67 49 69 42 / 10 10 20 50 Camden 65 46 68 41 / 0 10 20 50 Crestview 71 49 72 50 / 0 10 20 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.