textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 642 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through early next week.

- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected into early next week.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches on Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Current forecast remains on track. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Starting off tonight rather quiet across the area looking at GOES-16 Night Microphysics along with KMOB trends. Seeing a few isolated showers across the warm Gulf waters fueled by copious amounts of marine instability. Coverage will steadily increase overnight, supported by a subtle/weak inverted trough axis approaching from the western Gulf to provide some dynamic assistance which will continue into the early/mid-morning hours. 0-1km bulk shear on the order of 1-3kts, the potential for landbreeze localized sfc/low-level vorticity, ample PBL moisture all supports the potential for a few fair-weather waterspouts, something to monitor. Some of this activity will pour inland across coastal areas mid-morning, becoming more noticably inland during the afternoon/evening hours fueled by ample daytime sfc heating, with greatest/strongest convection focused from localized lift caused by sea/baybreeze interactions. For that reason, can't fully rule out a few rogue stronger storms that could contain downburst potential given noticably drying in the low/mid-level troposphere amplified by downward flux momentum transport in a well-mixed, deep PBL. No adjustments needed to proposed NBM PoPs as timing/coverage appears in line with meteorological reasoning and supported by recent REFS/HRRR trends.

Additionally, did take a minor adjustment with afternoon dewpoints to allow for a more realistic afternoon mixing regime, this mostly was emphasized as prescribed burns continue across interior southern Mississippi.

Rolling right along into the weekend, same deal each day with hot afternoon temperatures. Honestly hard to find many differences between each day as the aforementioned subtle impulse drifts west of the area, and daily mainly mid/late AM to PM pop-up showers/storms, starting near the water, then more inland throughout each day. No oppressive or excessive heat concerns with highs generally in the low 90's and dewpoints in the low/mid 70's providing max heat indices in the 101-107 range.

Going into next week, the weak, slow-moving disturbance drifts inland across SE LA placing our general area in rather progressive southerly flow regime. Still seeing long-range higher-than-normal confidence in a building ridge pattern expanding/retrograding west across the northern Gulf coast states, aiding in increasing heat and lowering PoPs some. Not reflecting much of this within the forecast yet other than some mid to becoming upper 90's possible in SW MS counties, but could start to get closer to Heat Advisory criteria at some point mid/late week. Just depends on if we mix out a bit more which is a common theme as we warm up to temperatures that warm. KLG

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. With isolated showers and thunderstorms hugging the coast this morning, added VCTS for KPNS and KJKA through 16z. The convection over the Gulf will move west of the area by early afternoon, with additional development of showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance) inland areas. Some of the stronger storms may be accompanied by stronger wind gusts and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR. Winds will increase to 5-10 knots today, generally southeasterly to southerly with periodic gusts up to 15 knots. /22

MARINE

Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Winds will be generally light easterly to southeasterly through the weekend. Near the coast, a diurnal cycle will bring onshore winds during the afternoon and evening, shifting to offshore overnight into the morning. Light southerly to southwesterly winds are expected Monday and Tuesday. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 72 93 73 / 20 0 20 10 Pensacola 90 75 92 76 / 30 0 20 10 Destin 89 77 91 77 / 20 10 20 20 Evergreen 92 72 93 72 / 10 10 20 10 Waynesboro 94 72 95 71 / 10 20 30 10 Camden 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 20 10 Crestview 93 72 93 72 / 20 10 40 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.