textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Increasing concern for wildfire activity on Saturday with very dry air, breezy conditions, and dry fuels. Moderate to extreme drought will continue to exacerbate wildfire activity.

- HIGH risk for rip currents on Sunday through Monday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Strong marine winds are expected through the morning and afternoon today behind a cold front with advisory-level conditions expected. Another bump to advisory-level conditions is expected Saturday night into Sunday as easterly winds increase.

UPDATE

Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Have updated to issue a High Risk of rip currents for the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches from Sunday through Monday. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The cold front is on track this evening as it begins to approach the coastal counties. A few showers were noted on radar earlier in the evening as the front passed over our northernmost counties, but radar remains quiet at this hour. Northerly winds will continue to increase on the backside of the front with gusts up to 30mph possible overnight and into Saturday morning. The pressure gradient between the front and surface high sliding across the Midwest should start to relax as we roll into the afternoon hours. The combination of dry air and gusty northerly winds on Saturday will contribute to extreme fire behavior (more on this in the fire weather section below). Weekend high temperatures in the wake of the front will be close to normal.

Ridging aloft builds back into the region early next week allowing for both the temperatures and moisture to rebound. A series of shortwaves dive through the southwest flow aloft in the middle to latter part of next week leading to increasing rain chances. Scattered showers are possible each afternoon Tuesday through Friday as the ridge slides east of the area and deep onshore flow develops overhead. There still remains a fair amount of run-to-run inconsistency in the guidance toward the end of the week regarding the strength and ultimate path of these shortwaves. Ensemble guidance is not overly bullish with QPF amounts and while probabilistic data supports rain nearly every afternoon, it's a low probability of any meaningful rainfall amounts at this point - definitely won't erase the ongoing drought conditions.

Beach Forecast - Risk for rip currents quickly increases in the strengthening southeasterly flow with a HIGH risk on Sunday and Monday. Rip current MOS probabilities indicate the the risk will likely be moderate on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will likely be high-end moderate conditions. 07/mb

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A cold front currently over the interior coastal counties continues through the remainder of the area by around issuance time, with northerly winds in the wake of the front increasing to around 15 knots overnight into early Saturday morning. Gusty northerly winds are expected through mid Saturday afternoon, then diminish and turn more easterly going into Saturday evening. VFR conditions are expected through the period. /29

MARINE

Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Moderate to strong offshore winds diminish somewhat Saturday afternoon, then a moderate to strong easterly flow develops Saturday night. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 3 pm this afternoon, then another Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 11 pm Saturday evening until 3 pm Sunday. A light to moderate southeasterly flow is expected by Monday and continues into Wednesday. /29

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The Significant Fire Potential remains HIGH on Saturday due to the combination of low relative humidity and gusty northerly winds, which will result in an elevated chance for significant fires and the potential for significant fire growth on existing fires. The ongoing severe to extreme drought conditions across a good chunk of the area will only exacerbate the concern for wildfires. For these reasons, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect on Saturday. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly on Saturday. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 56 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 75 59 70 62 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 74 56 70 61 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 73 48 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 70 50 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 70 49 71 54 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 77 50 74 55 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675.