textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 119 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- HIGH rip current risk continues today through Sunday night for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Patchy dense fog is possible overnight into the pre-dawn hours over the next several nights.

- Slow progression of the storms on Sunday morning could lead to flooding concerns across our southernmost counties, especially in southeast Mississippi.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Similar to the past few days, dense fog continues to impact the coastline early this morning. The fog will slowly creep inland throughout the early morning and pre-dawn hours. Expect a similar foggy pattern the next two nights, although probabilistic guidance indicates that the coastal counties and parts of south- central Alabama may be the only locations impacted by dense fog.

We have another day of ridging impacting the area before the pattern begins to break down a little bit. The persistent onshore flow in this pattern will usher more moisture into the area with PWATs of 1.6-1.8 inches streaming into the area over the weekend. Rain chances will be on the rise as we roll through the day today with scattered showers and storms possible by the afternoon. High resolution CAMs continue to indicate a line of storms approaching the area from the northwest by this evening. The line should begin to break apart as it reaches our area in the late evening and overnight hours. Not anticipating any severe weather as the storms enter the area, although a strong storm or two are possible. The main threat with any stronger storms tonight is gusty winds. Some of the high-res guidance pumps the breaks on the forward progression of the storms as they enter our area, especially once the storms approach the coastline. The slow nature of the storms once they reach our southernmost counties definitely raises an eyebrow with regard to the flooding potential. HREF PMMs (probability matched means) for Sunday are still showing a bullseye of QPF totals around 2-5 inches across our southeast Mississippi counties. Flooding is starting to become a concern, especially where storms repeatedly move over the same locations in southeast Mississippi and even coastal Alabama on Sunday morning given these recent trends in the guidance.

Riding builds back into the area in the early to middle part of next week ahead of the next system. An upper low ejects out of the Baja California area early next week, allowing the ridge to amplify over our region briefly as we dry out. This low opens up as it pivots eastward toward our local area later next week. What we will be watching is the timing of this system - if it swings through the area during the day as the shear and instability increase, we may have more of a severe threat versus if it swings through in the overnight hours. Right now, guidance is looking more like a nighttime event, but this could change again in the coming days.

Beach Forecast - HIGH risk for rip currents remains in effect through Sunday night for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Probabilistic guidance is showing the risk increasing to HIGH again late next week ahead of the next weather system. 07/mb

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist across the southern portion of the area through the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. Dense fog is expected to develop generally after 08z along and east of I-65. Conditions will gradually improve to MVFR and VFR by mid-morning on Saturday. Scattered storms are possible by late afternoon. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 119 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Patchy to areas of dense fog remains possible near the coastline for the next several nights. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for all bays, sounds, and adjacent marine waters out to 20 nautical miles with visibility expected to improve by mid morning Saturday. Small craft conditions are expected late next week as winds turn northerly. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 65 76 63 / 20 50 70 20 Pensacola 77 66 74 66 / 10 20 60 20 Destin 74 64 72 63 / 0 10 40 10 Evergreen 85 62 76 60 / 10 30 80 30 Waynesboro 83 63 74 63 / 60 70 90 20 Camden 83 63 73 61 / 30 60 90 30 Crestview 84 61 76 61 / 10 20 60 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ056-059- 060-262>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655.