textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Rounds of heavy rainfall will continue across portions of the area today, tonight and into early Monday with flooding remaining possible, mainly along the coast.

- A HIGH risk of rip currents continues for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through at least Monday.

- Minor coastal flooding is expected again early Monday morning, mainly for coastal Alabama during high tide with water levels up to 2 feet above normally dry ground.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Plenty to discuss early this afternoon as were continuing to see ongoing rounds of rain across the area. Taking a step back and looking aloft reveals the same general weakness/broad troughing regime and associated PVA helping to support widespread lift. Meanwhile in the low-levels, seeing broad curvature/inverted troughing with plenty of isentropic ascent helping to pump anomalously deep moisture from the Gulf, north. Proximity model soundings speak volumes with a very moist adiabatic thermal profile and attendant skinny cape meaning moisture, yeah, definitely not lacking any at all. Nearby radar trends have illustrated several small-scale low to mid-level MCVs lingering from remnant complexes overnight, drifting east across nearshore coastal waters. Its an interesting battle between remnant subsidence from stratiform (worked over) airmass pockets versus wherever these MCVs or remnant boundaries can outbalance the subsidence and re-develop new showers. Overall messy, and challenging to target specific areas until these mesoscale features show themselves. This is a type of regime/pattern given how chaotic it is that can cause substantially higher local amounts given the anomalously high moisture content while at the same time, some areas could grossly be underdone with forecast rain totals. Not a simple forecast and easy to just go with any single model storm total rainfall forecast, and definitely not blended guidance. Will mention, overall, HREF/REFS combo did quite well with the development of a weak mesolow and the attendant lift east of the low center, which caused higher rain totals across NW FL, but did over correct a bit as is typical in this moisture rich pattern. The next feature to monitor will be the next larger-scale lift/PVA over SE LA that will attempt to spread more showers over the area this afternoon/evening. Again, if any small-scale boundaries/lift overcome larger-scale remnant subsidence, slow-moving moderate to heavy showers (producing rain rates upwards of 2-4/hr) could quickly lead to locally higher rainfall totals in a short amount of time causing flash flooding. Keeping the flood watch in effect for the same areas through tonight, but will re-assess as we continue to monitor near-term guidance and trends.

Additionally, will continue to monitor the ongoing risk for waterspouts across marine areas, and could see a low/isolated risk for tornadoes along the coast as SPC highlights a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for this lower-end conditional risk. Should additional meso low/MCVs form, especially from the complex to our southwest, we could see a brief window of greater/shallow low-level shear leading to a few isolated tornadoes. This would be mainly this afternoon into tonight.

Tonight, CAMs continue to indicate increasing CAA from the north as a front drapes south, helping to push this activity south. However, well continue to see lingering light/stratiform (or even drizzle) at times across the area tonight. Then as CAA builds south, CAMs indicate a re-fire of marine convection just offshore, mainly late tonight into early Monday which eventually sags everything south of our 60nm zones. What is left (sloped aloft) is remnant PVA keeping a relatively thick layer of clouds over us tomorrow but should steadily dry out with time.

Beyond that going into Tuesday/Mid-week, clouds remain tucked in for a few areas, but perhaps a few intervals of sunshine here and there, thankfully, a bit cooler but still humid. Overall, not too bad going into midweek

Then late-week, yes, focus shifts to the south where remnant broad troughing dips far south into the central and southern Gulf, where PVA breaks off and meanders in the Bay of Campeche. The normal Campeche Gyre and generally modest/to somewhat favorable upper-level conditions could promote slow/steady tropical development. NHC highlights a 30% chance of development over the next 7 days in this region. Still a lot of unknowns this far out for now in regards to if anything develops, how strong it could become or where it ends up. Deepmind guidance hints at initial development around the 30% area aiming towards the northern Gulf, but suite of intensity guidance is extremely wide. Definitely something to check back on.

Regardless, easterly flow will pick up mid to late week likely resulting in another round of dangerous surf/rip currents with long-term fetch leading to coastal flooding. Coastal/marine interest will need to stay updated to the forecast especially going into the middle of the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Mostly IFR conditions through the evening and overnight as convection continues over most of the local terminals. MOB and BFM may experience a bit of a break in convection this evening before additional development in the early morning hours. Eventually, some very slight improvement to LOW MVFR conditions can be anticipated toward the end of the cycle. Otherwise, winds will transition to a more northerly direction late tonight and into the morning hours on Monday respectively.

(LIX-Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Outside of gusty winds with thunderstorms, overall light winds and seas of less than 3 feet can be expected through Monday. A cold front will start to push through the waters Monday night into Tuesday and winds will increase from the east and northeast to between 15 and 25 knots with the stronger winds out in the open waters. Seas will respond to these winds and increase to 5 to 7 feet creating rough conditions offshore. These small craft advisory conditions will persist through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 68 82 67 83 / 60 30 10 20 Pensacola 70 81 69 82 / 70 40 30 40 Destin 72 82 70 82 / 80 60 30 40 Evergreen 66 81 64 83 / 60 40 10 10 Waynesboro 66 82 64 84 / 70 40 10 10 Camden 66 83 63 84 / 60 30 10 0 Crestview 67 79 65 81 / 80 50 30 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ261>266.

Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ201>206.

Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.