textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 423 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- There is the potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday.

- The risk for strong rip currents increases midweek, with a Moderate risk of rip currents anticipated from Wednesday night through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A large positively tilted upper trof over the northern Plains to 4 Corners region takes on a meridional orientation while progressing into the eastern states through Thursday. Interestingly, this system is now indicated to not absorb a cut- off upper low drifting across the Baja region which in turn allows for the upper trof to be a bit quicker with its eastward progression. In response to this pattern, a surface low passes off to the north and brings a cold front through the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. In response to a series of shortwaves moving across the region and the approaching front, convection advances into the forecast area Wednesday afternoon mainly across interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. One uncertainty with this issuance is just how quickly the convection increases across interior portions of the forecast area Wednesday evening, which could then progress southward across the remainder of the area more quickly than currently forecast, moving offshore Thursday morning. In addition, the CAMs are indicating rainfall totals of 2-5 inches (with locally higher amounts possibly to 8 inches) mainly across interior areas through Thursday morning which portends a risk of flash flooding. This all depends on how this event will play out, so will need to see if continuity develops for this potential heavy rainfall. Sufficient CAPE and shear will also be present to support strong to potentially severe storm development Wednesday night along and west of I-65, and also along/south of the outflow boundary/frontal boundary on Thursday.

The frontal boundary is anticipated to return back to near the coast on Friday, but there's uncertainty with whether or not the front lifts off to the north or rather lingers near the coast at least through Saturday before dissipating. A series of shortwaves meanwhile move across the region and have opted for chance to likely pops both days. Another surface low meanwhile develops over the southern Plains and is expected to lift well off to the north, bringing a cold front through the forecast area Sunday night. With a series of shortwaves continuing to move across the region along with the frontal passage, have gone with likely pops for Sunday then chance pops follow for Monday. Dry conditions are then expected for Monday night through Wednesday. A low risk of rip currents is expected for tonight and Wednesday, then a moderate risk follows for Wednesday night through Saturday. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated for Sunday. /29

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions will be followed by a predominately MVFR ceiling developing over the area late tonight, with patchy fog possible. Conditions improve to MVFR/VFR on Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing mainly west of I-65 in the afternoon. Southerly winds 5-10 knots diminish to 5 knots or less this evening, then a southwest to south flow around 10 knots develops on Wednesday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 423 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Light onshore flow increases to a light to moderate flow tonight into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. A light to moderate offshore flow develops late in the week behind the front, but quickly shifts to onshore temporarily over the weekend before a passing system brings back light to moderate offshore flow Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 83 72 82 65 / 40 40 80 30 Pensacola 82 73 82 68 / 20 20 70 20 Destin 80 72 81 68 / 10 20 60 10 Evergreen 86 69 81 60 / 30 70 90 20 Waynesboro 83 68 79 59 / 70 90 60 30 Camden 84 68 78 58 / 60 90 70 20 Crestview 87 70 84 63 / 20 20 80 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.