textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through Sunday, with localized spots potentially reaching 108-110.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through Saturday, increasing to numerous to widespread by Sunday into early next week with potential for locally heavy rainfall.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches tonight through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Typical summertime diurnal convection will occur today and Saturday as we potentially start off with an early morning shower/storm or two along the coast near an area of surface convergence. This convection will then spread inland through the afternoon hours as a seabreeze ensues. Similar to yesterday, we are expecting a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances occurring along the seabreeze. Rain chances are expected to be a bit higher on Saturday into the 30-40% range along and north of I-10 due to a slight bump-up in PWATs to around 2 inches.

We then shift to a much wetter pattern Sunday through early next week as positively tilted upper trough exits the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio River Saturday night. As this trough nearly stalls over the southeast CONUS on Sunday, a cutoff upper low pressure area is expected to develop over Tennessee and then retrograde westward toward the southern plains Monday into Tuesday under a large upper high situated over much of the northern U.S. The combination of the upper trough/cutoff low, a weak surface low pressure area/boundary reflected in the lower levels and PWATS increasing to 2.25", numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur on Sunday with the best chance inland areas. A higher chance of rain will occur on Monday with definite showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, with the potential for localized flooding. The WPC has our area outlooked for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday for the entire area. Lower rain chances are expected Tuesday into the middle of next week as upper high pressure rebuilds over the region.

High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above normal, ranging from 90-95 degrees. Lows will be about 4 to 9 degrees above normal, with middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 73 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short duration instances as high as 110 degrees. Cooler high temperatures will occur through the first half of next week with the increase in cloud coverage an rain chances. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR flight category continues across the region today into tonight. Light and variable winds this morning become southerly at around 5 to 10 knots by late morning. Isolated showers and storms are once again possible today, with any locations under these likely to experience temporary reductions in flight category. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southerly to southwesterly flow prevails through Sunday, becoming mainly westerly by early next week. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less today, building to 2 to 3 feet for the weekend into early next week. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 93 76 93 75 / 30 10 30 10 Pensacola 92 81 92 79 / 20 10 30 20 Destin 90 82 90 80 / 10 10 30 20 Evergreen 93 74 93 73 / 30 10 40 20 Waynesboro 95 75 95 74 / 10 10 40 20 Camden 92 75 92 74 / 10 10 40 30 Crestview 94 75 95 75 / 20 10 40 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.