textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 - A mix of rain and light snow is possible for much of the area late Saturday night until mid Sunday morning.

- Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

- A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Monday night into early Tuesday morning as wind chills fall into the upper teens to middle 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A rather large upper trof pattern undergoes several amplification periods through much of the week as vigorous embedded systems progress through the large scale pattern. The first of these embedded systems brings a sharp upper trof across the forecast area late Saturday night into Sunday morning before ejecting off to the east and will be responsible for bringing the potential for wintry weather to a portion of the area. A cold front will move through the forecast area late tonight into early Saturday morning which will support good chance to categorical pops west of I-65 and chance pops further to the east. As the sharp upper trof approaches, isentropic lift both in the form of layer lifting from colder air flowing into area along with an overrunning flow will support increasing pops Saturday afternoon into the evening hours for all but the northwestern third of the area. During the overnight hours, the advance of the upper trof will cause the isentropic lift to shift eastward and exit the area Sunday morning, bringing a gradual end to the precipitation. The precipitation remains as rain through the early evening hours, though as temperatures drop Saturday night the rain will change over to snow before the precipitation comes to an end Sunday morning. The chance for measurable accumulation of snow remains low, with about a 10-30% chance of a tenth (0.1) inch of snow (maybe a bit more) falling mainly across portions of south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, including Baldwin county Alabama. We are continuing to monitor the potential for a Winter Weather Advisory to become necessary for this general portion of the forecast area for late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Dry conditions follow from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday, during which time a weak reinforcing cold front is expected move through the area Monday morning. Another embedded system moving through the large upper trof pattern will bring slight chance to chance pops Wednesday night through Thursday night. Temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough that the precipitation remains as rain. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 50s to around 60, then highs remain in the 40s on Sunday. Highs on Monday will be in the 50s. Lows Saturday night range from the upper 20s well inland to the mid 30s at the coast, then lows Sunday night and Monday night tend to range from the mid 20s inland to around 30 at the coast. Wind chill values late Monday night into early Tuesday morning still look set to drop to the upper teens well inland to the mid 20s near the coast, and this may warrant an eventual Cold Weather Advisory. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid 20s well inland to the mid 30s at the coast, then lows Wednesday night through Friday night tend to be in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, then highs Wednesday through Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday through Wednesday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions generally prevail through the period. Light rain showers continue to stream into the area this afternoon and this trend will continue through early Sunday morning. Visibility and ceilings may briefly drop into the MVFR range overnight with the next round of rain. If any wintry precipitation develops early Sunday morning, it should not impact the TAF sites. Winds will remain northerly with gusts as high as 20-25 knots late this afternoon and into tonight. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1158 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Light to moderate southwesterly winds shift to the northwest during early to mid morning on Saturday. The offshore flow strengthens Saturday afternoon into Saturday night then diminishes on Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory comes into effect for the entire marine area late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, then tapers off Sunday morning. A light offshore flow prevails for Monday then strengthens Monday night before diminishing on Tuesday. Small craft may need to exercise caution well offshore late Monday night into Tuesday morning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 58 33 49 28 / 30 30 10 0 Pensacola 59 36 48 33 / 50 60 20 0 Destin 62 36 48 34 / 60 80 30 0 Evergreen 56 30 47 25 / 30 30 10 0 Waynesboro 53 27 46 26 / 10 10 0 0 Camden 53 28 44 25 / 20 20 0 0 Crestview 58 32 48 25 / 50 60 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Sunday for GMZ670-675.