textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 653 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 - A High Risk of rip currents will continue through tonight for all area beaches.

- A few strong storms, capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall, remains possible this afternoon and into the evening hours for areas east of I-65.

- Drier air filters in tonight, lowering rain chances through midweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The forecast remains on track with no changes currently planned. JGC/98

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A positively-tilted upper-level trough currently stretches from the Great Lakes region down towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This trough will continue to slowly push eastwards; it's axis passing overhead tonight and likely reaching the Appalachians by tomorrow afternoon. At the surface, a cold front currently bisects the local area, stretching from central Mobile county up to the northeast along the I-65 corridor. Although not bringing much in the way of cooler temperatures to the area, this front is helping to create a very tight moisture gradient across the area. PWATs over our area range from 1.3-1.5 inches over our northwestern counties to as high as 2.1-2.4 inches over our southeastern counties. Current radar shows scattered to numerous showers and storms over our northwestern Florida counties, up into Escambia and Covington Counties in Alabama. These storms have gradually been pushing towards the east this afternoon as forcing from an embedded shortwave aloft rounds the base of the trough and passes overhead. Although the strongest storms/heaviest rainfall are starting to exit our CWA to the east, cannot rule out the development of a few more storms which are capable of producing gusty winds and very heavy rainfall over the next few hours.

By tonight and into Monday, as the upper trough passes to our east, the drier airmass will filter into the rest of the area. The trough is expected to cutoff from the jet stream by Monday night and linger over the Appalachians through Wednesday night before becoming absorbed by another trough. This will help to maintain a dry northerly to northwesterly flow pattern aloft, helping to keep rain chances low through at least midweek. Little to no rain is expected on Monday, with only a few spotty showers and storms possible Tuesday and Wednesday. If storms do manage to form during this period, they will likely remain confined to the sea breeze boundary generally along and east of the I-65 corridor. Moisture slowly starts to advect back into the area by the latter part of the week and into next weekend, allowing for our typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms to return. Highs throughout the period will remain in the low to mid 90s, however, with the drier air filtering in, heat indices should remain below Heat Advisory criteria through midweek. Heat indices may rise to around 100-105 degrees by late week as moisture returns. Lows tonight and Monday night will actually be a touch cooler thanks to the drier airmass. Lows will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. Lows increase back to the low 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast by midweek. A High Risk of Rip Currents remains in place through tonight, lowering to a Moderate Risk for Monday. The rip current risk drops to a Low Risk for Tuesday and into midweek. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible southeast of I-65 through the evening with a 20% or lower chance of impacts at TAF sites. Some brief MVFR cigs are possible near the coast this evening and over the interior around midday Monday. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Light winds tonight will become northwesterly around 5-10 knots on Monday, turning westerly to southwesterly near the coast for the afternoon. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Moderate westerly to southwesterly winds gradually weaken tonight, briefly becoming northwesterly to westerly. Small Craft should exercise caution over the Gulf waters this afternoon and into the evening hours. A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow develops on Monday, becoming more southerly by Wednesday. Light to moderate southeasterly to easterly flow develops for the latter part of the week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 70 91 72 93 / 10 10 10 20 Pensacola 75 90 76 91 / 30 10 10 20 Destin 76 89 77 89 / 30 10 0 10 Evergreen 69 90 69 92 / 10 10 0 10 Waynesboro 69 92 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 69 89 70 90 / 0 10 10 10 Crestview 70 91 70 92 / 30 10 10 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.