textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Strong flow will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters through mid afternoon today.

- A high rip current risk remains in effect the beaches of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A surface low passes just south of the forecast area overnight before continuing into the central Florida panhandle early Tuesday morning. A large rain shield over much of the area is starting to break up over southeastern Mississippi, and the precipitation is expected to end from west to east overnight into early Tuesday morning as the surface low exits to the east. Current indications are that a warm front extending eastward from the surface low will mostly likely not be able to lift into the western Florida panhandle before the system exits to the east, thus the potential for strong storms looks low. Other than a small chance for rain over the eastern fringe of the area Tuesday morning, dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday.

A positively tilted upper trof which extends from the north central states to near the 4 Corners region becomes increasingly elongated and splits through Thursday as the northern portion continues across the northeast states. The remainder of the upper trof will be located roughly over the central Plains to across the southwest states on Thursday and into Friday. A surface low is anticipated to develop over the northwest Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday, then move across the marine portion of the forecast area mainly during the day on Friday. Will need to closely monitor the trajectory of the surface low, as there is the potential for this feature to move across the coastal portions of the forecast area which would then portend a risk of strong storm development. Will have likely to categorical pops for both Thursday and Friday.

The upper trof evolves into a large and broad upper trof which gradually progresses into the eastern states through Sunday with a pair of vigorous embedded systems meanwhile traversing the upper trof pattern. There is a lot of uncertainty with how this pattern will play out, though at this point a surface low is anticipated to develop over the Plains on Saturday and take an unusual path into the southeast states on Sunday. Have gone with chance pops for Saturday then dry conditions are expected to develop Saturday night into Sunday and continue into Monday. The coldest night of the forecast period looks to be Tuesday night when lows range from the mid/upper 20s well inland to the mid/upper 30s at the coast. The remainder of the forecast period will have lows near seasonable values but a bit on the cool side. Highs on Wednesday through Friday will be about 5-10 degrees below normal and generally in the 50s except for near 60 at the coast. Daytime highs then gradually moderate to the lower/mid 60s on Saturday then dip to the mid 50s to lower 60s for Monday. A high risk of rip currents is in effect Tuesday with a moderate risk for Tuesday night. A low risk follows for Wednesday and Thursday then a moderate risk is expected for Friday. A low risk follows for Saturday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

IFR to LIFR ceilings remain prevalent across the area this morning in the wake of a cold front. Expect these ceilings to persist through late morning before improving back to MVFR for the afternoon, perhaps improving back to VFR at least temporarily during the late afternoon into early evening hours. An MVFR to IFR ceiling may return across the region late tonight. Winds will be breezy today out of the north at around 5 to 10 knots gusting upwards of 20 knots at times. Winds relax tonight to around 5 knots across the area. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Moderate to strong easterly winds switch to the northwest overnight then gradually diminishes to a light to moderate northerly flow Tuesday into Tuesday night. Will mention Small Craft Should Exercise Caution overnight for the bays and sounds in case winds reach 15-20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the open Gulf waters until 3 pm Tuesday, though could probably be canceled earlier by midday for the near shore waters. Will leave to the next shift to reassess. An easterly flow develops Wednesday night into Thursday then switches to the north on Friday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 58 32 58 44 / 10 0 0 30 Pensacola 61 37 58 48 / 10 0 0 20 Destin 66 39 60 48 / 10 0 0 10 Evergreen 58 29 60 38 / 10 0 0 20 Waynesboro 49 26 56 38 / 10 0 0 30 Camden 53 27 54 35 / 10 0 0 10 Crestview 62 31 60 39 / 10 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ650- 655-670-675.