textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 102 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Strong winds over our local Gulf waters will create hazardous conditions for small craft through Saturday morning.

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk is in place for all local area beaches today and into tonight. A brief increase to a High Risk cannot be ruled out over our Florida beaches this afternoon. - Dense fog may become a concern next week as temperatures and humidity levels increase.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Now through Friday...

Several upper level shortwaves move through a mean upper trough situated over the East Coast into the weekend, with a reinforcing front moving over the forecast area tonight in response. This will usher in a reinforcement of the cool and drier airmass over the forecast area for the beginning of the weekend. Another round of low temperatures near or below freezing is expected Saturday night.

Sunday on, an upper ridge over the Plains shifts east into the week, as a closed upper low over the SW Conus/Mexico border moves east. Surface high pressure shifts south to over the eastern Gulf Sunday night into Monday, returning onshore flow to the forecast area and nearby. Moisture levels creep up into mid week, reaching levels generally in the 1.1"-1.3" range by late Wednesday (a bit lower than yesterday) as the SW-ern Conus system, now an open wave, passes over the Southeast in a now modest upper ridge. A quick shot of isentropic upglide rain dampens the forecast area Wednesday through Thursday. Any rumbles mixed in will be limited, with limited instability available. Coverage is expected to be isolated to low end scattered at most, with the ingredients not quite high enough for heavier rains. Heading into the end of the week, guidance has begun to diverge with the upper pattern. The ECMWF is advertising an upper level shortwave passing north of the forecast area late Friday through Friday night, bringing rain to the forecast area as a cold front moves over the forecast area in response to an upper level shortwave passing north of the forecast area. The rest of the guidance and ensembles are advertising an upper level shortwave moving over the Southeast Friday night through Saturday. This is a bit outside of the current package, so am not going to deviated from the current NBM blend.

With the modest onshore flow in the coming week, sea fog becomes a problem, water temperatures in the mid to upper 50s south Mobile Bay stretch west along the Mississippi Coast. Water temperatures are in upper 40s to low 50s in Mobile Bay. With warm flow off the Gulf over these cool waters, sea fog looks likely early in the coming week. SREF and NAM12 have begun to advertise fog over the forecast area beginning late Sunday night into Monday.

Taking a closer look at temperatures, high temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60 for Saturday. From there, high temperatures quickly rise into the 70s, topping out in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday, low 70s along the coast. Looking at low temperatures, low to mid to upper 30s tonight see a drop into the around 30 to mid 30s Saturday night behind the reinforcing front. From there, low temps rise through the week, topping out in this forecast, to mid to upper 50s Wednesday night.

The current moderate to strong westerly winds, creating a Moderate to locally High Risk of Rip Currents on area beaches today. Winds shift back to offshore for the weekend, shifting the Rip Risk back to low. Even with a shift in winds to onshore in the coming week, winds remain light enough, even with an increasing tidal range, to limit onshore swell and keep a Low Risk of rip currents into the coming week. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Northerly winds 5 to 10 knots shift to southerly Saturday. /16

MARINE

Issued at 102 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Moderate to strong westerly flow this afternoon will ease into Saturday. Winds will become a more variable light flow before becoming a light to at times moderate onshore in the coming week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 41 63 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 43 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 43 60 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 36 58 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 37 59 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 36 55 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 37 61 30 64 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.