textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 646 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- A Moderate risk of rip currents develops Wednesday afternoon, increasing to a High risk by Thursday for all local beaches.

- Rain chances substantially increase Thursday into the coming weekend. Numerous showers and storms are expected during this period, with storms capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. However, the rip current risk has been increased to Moderate for Wednesday due to concerns about the increasing onshore flow leading to an uptick in rip currents during the afternoon hours. The risk then becomes High for Thursday through the weekend for all area beaches. JGC/98

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1047 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Our taste of Fall is quickly coming to an end as we see a pattern change the rest of the week. Today and Wednesday should remain mostly dry, with perhaps an afternoon shower or storm near the coast Wednesday as moisture return begins. Afternoon highs today and tomorrow remain well above normal in the upper 80's to lower 90's, with morning temperatures Wednesday starting in the lower 60's inland and upper 60's nearer the coast. Ample moisture return will be ongoing Wednesday night rapidly increasing dewpoints, which should help to keep lows in the upper 60's to lower 70's which is about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

As we head into late week, we'll see a quick uptrend in chances for rain Thursday through the weekend. This is thanks to deep layer southerly winds bringing in ample tropical moisture off the gulf along with the remnant trough split and several other subtle disturbances rounding the periphery of the ridge. Forecast guidance is fairly robust on overall rain totals Thursday through the weekend, generally depicting widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts, locally higher. The environment will be very favorable for intense rainfall rates with storms. Sampled forecast soundings depict a deep, warm and moist airmass supportive of efficient warm rain processes that will be present across the area along with very high PWATs for this time of year exceeding 2.3 to 2.5 inches. It's still early to pinpoint what areas see higher or lower totals, but given the environment in place I can't rule out some potential for flash flooding, particularly in poor drainage and urban areas that see repeated rounds of storms. MM/25

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly winds near the coast this evening will become light and variable for the overnight. Winds are then expected to gradually increase out of the southeast through the day Wednesday, increasing to around 8-12 knots over southern counties, possibly gusting to near 20 knots along the coast. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 1047 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Light and variable flow continues through today. A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow develops Wednesday, persisting through the weekend. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the weekend. Small Craft should exercise caution beginning late Wednesday night through Friday. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 68 88 72 88 / 0 10 10 60 Pensacola 72 87 76 86 / 0 10 20 70 Destin 73 86 76 86 / 0 10 30 60 Evergreen 60 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 50 Waynesboro 62 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 60 Camden 59 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 30 Crestview 65 90 69 89 / 0 10 10 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.