textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Marine conditions will continue to improve overnight through Monday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week with afternoon highs approaching 80 degrees by midweek.

- We will monitor the potential for fog late this weekend as southerly winds bring increased moisture levels.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Dry weather and increasingly warm temperatures are expected early this week as upper level ridging builds across the area. Models are in fairly good agreement that this ridging will give way to a west southwest upper level flow by mid to late week. Temperatures will continue to warm and become well above normal by late week with highs climbing into the low 80s away from the coast. Rain chances will enter back into the forecast by Thursday/Friday and into the weekend as a cold front will attempt to slowly drift south toward the area. Timing of this front is uncertain however, as its southward progression will be hindered by the upper level WSW flow. It will likely take until next weekend for the front to finally push through the area. This all results in uncertainty in the exact period that will see the highest rain chances.

Dewpoints are forecast to climb into the upper 60s by the late in the week under a persistent light onshore flow. This pattern suggests we will have to monitor for the potential of fog development, including over the marine area. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

IFR to MVFR CIGs stratus over the forecast area with VFR VISBYs were noted across the forecast area at 11z. The latest satellite loop is showing breaks increasing in coverage north of the forecast area. Am expecting general VFR conditions across the forecast area by 18z. These conditions are expected the rest of the forecast. Northerly winds around 10 knots will ease and become light after 00z tonight. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Offshore flow will gradually diminish overnight into Monday morning as high pressure builds across the area. The Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire over the next few hours. A light onshore flow develops by Tuesday and continues through the remainder of the week as the surface high moves east of the area. 34/JFB

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 51 72 59 / 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 69 54 69 60 / 0 0 0 20 Destin 68 54 67 58 / 0 0 0 20 Evergreen 71 44 74 53 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 69 48 73 56 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 67 46 73 55 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 72 45 73 53 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST early this morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST early this morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.