textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 142 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026 - A much colder and drier air mass continues to filter into the area behind a strong cold front, with reinforcing shots of cool, dry air persisting through Saturday night. - A light freeze is expected across portions of the northern area tonight and Saturday night. Frost is also expected across much of the remainder of the area tonight, away from the immediate coast.

- Strong easterly winds are expected to develop over the marine area Monday afternoon and persist through much of next week, leading to a High risk of rip currents and potentially hazardous surf conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

A large upper-level low centered over the Great Lakes maintains strong northwesterly flow aloft across the Southeast through this afternoon. A couple of embedded shortwaves will continue to reinforce the cold and dry Canadian air mass filtering southward through Saturday night. The Freeze Watch across northern areas has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for tonight, with another Freeze Warning now issued for Saturday night. However, confidence in widespread freezing temperatures remains limited, as NBM probabilities of subfreezing temperatures greater than 25% are largely confined to northern portions of warned counties outside of Choctaw and Wilcox counties. Even so, favorable radiational cooling conditions will support areas of frost as far south as I-10 tonight, with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s. Thus, a Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight across the remainder of the area, excluding the immediate coast. High temperatures will remain cool through the weekend, generally in upper 50s to low 60s Saturday and low to mid 60s Sunday. Widespread cloud cover associated with the next approaching system will then keep highs mainly in the 50s away from the coast Monday.

Early next week, surface high pressure to the north shifts east, allowing low-level flow to turn easterly as a small upper low and associated shortwave approach from the west. Increasing moisture ahead of this feature could bring showers to parts of the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, though confidence in precipitation coverage and amounts remains low. The highest chances are currently across southern portions of the area (around 30-40%) depending largely on how far north a boundary over the Gulf is able to advance.

Beyond Tuesday, upper-level ridging is expected to become established across the region, supporting predominantly dry conditions and a warming trend through the remainder of next week. Temperatures will climb back to above seasonal norms, with highs returning to the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

Taking a look at coastal impacts, an enhanced pressure gradient between low pressure over the Gulf and strong surface high pressure to the north will result in strengthening east-northeasterly winds over the marine area beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through much of the week. This will lead to deteriorating coastal conditions, with the rip current risk increasing to High by Monday. Hazardous surf conditions will also be possible early to mid week. JGC/98

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with northwesterly winds. Gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible this afternoon. /13

MARINE

Issued at 142 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Small craft should exercise caution offshore through Saturday morning with periods of moderate to strong offshore flow continuing. Strong east-northeasterly flow develops early next week with advisory level conditions expected and a potential for gusts to gale force. Seas build to greater than 7 feet across the near and offshore Gulf waters early to mid week in response to the strengthening winds. JGC/98

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 37 62 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 42 62 45 64 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 43 62 46 65 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 32 59 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 32 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 32 57 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 34 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for ALZ051>058.

Freeze Warning from midnight Saturday night to 8 AM CST Sunday for ALZ051>058.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for ALZ059-060-261>264.

FL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for FLZ201-203-205.

MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for MSZ067.

Freeze Warning from midnight Saturday night to 8 AM CST Sunday for MSZ067.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for MSZ075-076-078-079.

GM...None.