textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 720 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm development continues into the weekend, especially over interior portions of south central Alabama. Storms could produce heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized flash flooding, along with gusty winds.

- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in place for the weekend

- Heat indices rise to around 100 this weekend and into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 720 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

It was an early start on radar this morning as the showers that developed over the Florida panhandle in the pre-dawn hours have finally pushed east of our area. Additional showers are already developing across southeast Mississippi as of 7am. We still anticipate scattered, hit-or-miss showers and storms to begin ramping up by late morning and continuing through the afternoon hours. The rest of the forecast remains on track this morning. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A weak shortwave is directly overhead this morning. As it pushes off to the east, a northwesterly flow pattern will develop aloft as our region becomes sandwiched between a building ridge over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, and a trough digging into the northeast US. At the surface, high pressure is expected to build over the Appalachians this weekend. As it does so, it will allow for a cold air damming (CAD) pattern to setup across the southeast US. This will help to push a weak 'backdoor cold front' into the area from the northeast by Sunday. This front will likely stall Sunday night and linger in place through Tuesday. A secondary push may come by Wednesday as another high builds over the Appalachians, possibly helping to shove the stalled boundary offshore.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will continue to develop this weekend as deep moisture lingers in place, weak shortwaves move within the flow aloft, and strong destabilization occurs during the afternoon hours thanks to diurnal heating. For today, as the upper ridge builds just to our west, subtle height rises may help to keep storm coverage rather spotty in nature. Best coverage of storms will be over interior portions of south central Alabama due to being farther away from the influence of the ridge. Sunday looks to be the wettest day of the weekend as the frontal boundary approaches the area and the ridge retreats into the Gulf. Highest rain chances will once again reside over interior south central Alabama due to the proximity of the front, which will likely serve as a focus for storms to develop along. Although overall severe probabilities remain low at this time, storms that manage to cluster together would be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. We will also have to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall on Sunday. PWATs sitting at around the 2 inch mark will likely lead to storms being efficient rainfall producers. Additionally, storms may have the potential to train over the same areas as winds aloft will likely be oriented parallel to the slow-moving frontal boundary. Therefore, cannot rule out localized flash flooding, especially if storms train over areas which have seen abundant rainfall over the past week or so.

Afternoon scattered storm development continues into next week, as we transition to more of a typical summer-like pattern. Highest rain chances will likely occur wherever the stationary frontal boundary resides (likely over the southern half of the area). With northwesterly flow remaining in place aloft, will also continue to monitor upstream for any storm complexes that may try to enter the area. Forecast confidence for rain chances lowers for midweek as the secondary backdoor cold front tries to push in. If the boundary is able to push through the area, some drier air will be able to move in, lowering rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday. On the other hand, if the front stalls overhead like the previous one did, then rain chances will remain elevated through the remainder of the period. Current forecast continues to lean towards the stalled front scenario Highs through Tuesday will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Factoring in the humidity, heat indices will likely reach the 98-103 degree mark for most areas. Highs may lower back into the mid to upper 80s by midweek. Lows through Monday night will be in the low to mid 70s. Depending on the second front, lows may lower into the mid to upper 60s for midweek. Additionally, with saturated boundary-layer conditions and light winds, cannot rule out the development of patchy fog during the late night/early morning hours over the next few days, particularly over inland counties. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will be in place for the weekend. A Low Risk should return by early next week. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the day. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop this afternoon, predominantly over interior counties. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Southwesterly winds are expected to increase to around 7-12 knots by this afternoon. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 720 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists through the weekend and into early next week. Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms today. Winds turn northerly late Tuesday and easterly by Wednesday. Exercise caution conditions are possible on Thursday and Friday in the easterly flow. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 89 73 90 73 / 30 20 50 30 Pensacola 87 76 89 75 / 20 10 40 30 Destin 85 76 86 76 / 20 10 50 30 Evergreen 88 72 90 71 / 60 30 80 40 Waynesboro 88 72 91 71 / 50 20 50 20 Camden 87 71 88 70 / 60 20 70 20 Crestview 89 72 90 71 / 50 20 70 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.