textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- A much drier airmass will continue filtering into the area, leading to an elevated fire danger risk through Tuesday.

- A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.

- Rain chances increase by late week and into the upcoming weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to an increased potential for flooding, is possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The forecast remains on track and no updates are needed. SS/97

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A vertically-stacked low pressure system is expected to continue impacting the northeast US over the next 24 to 36 hours. Counter- clockwise flow around this system, along with high pressure over the Midwest, is giving way to a northerly flow pattern over the Appalachians. This, in turn, is setting up for a rather impressive CAD (Cold Air Damming) pattern to develop across the southeast. Much drier air (rooted mainly from the surface up to around 700mb) has begun filtering into the area, particularly over our northeastern counties, where dewpoints this afternoon have crashed into the low to mid 40s. Throughout the afternoon and into tonight, this dry airmass should spread across the remainder of the local area, likely giving way to dewpoints in the 40s and 50s areawide by tonight and into tomorrow. Although highs tomorrow will still remain quite warm in the mid to upper 80s, lows will be noticably cooler, with temperatures tonight and tomorrow night dropping into the mid to upper 50s inland and the low to mid 60s over coastal counties and into southeast Mississippi. The only main concern with this pattern will be with regards to fire weather, as minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop into the low to mid 20% range. Fortunately, winds are expected to remain well below Red Flag criteria, however, factoring in the dry antecedent conditions and Moderate to Severe Drought across much of the area, there exists an elevated fire danger risk through at least Monday night and possibly into Tuesday.

By midweek, the low over the northeast US is expected to weaken and pull away from the east coast. In its wake, high pressure will build eastward, allowing for winds over the local area to slowly veer from easterly on Tuesday to southeasterly on Wednesday. As flow becomes more onshore, low-level moisture will begin advecting back in from the Gulf. Subsidence from the high should keep rain chances low for Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances start to increase Thursday, and especially into Friday and the upcoming weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west. Although we are still too far out to get into details, there are some indications that we could enter a rather active pattern which features several rounds of very heavy rainfall over multiple days, which could ultimately lead to an increased potential of flooding. We will continue monitoring trends over the coming days.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected to continue through Tuesday night. The rip current risk quickly increases to a High Risk by late Wednesday night as onshore flow increases. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The current generally northwesterly winds become light and variable overnight. By tomorrow morning, winds will be generally northeasterly at 5-8 knots. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A rather light and variable flow pattern will continue through Tuesday. Flow will transition to a moderate southeasterly flow by midweek, with seas increasing to 3-5 feet. Exercise Caution headlines may become necessary. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 62 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 67 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 69 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 57 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 59 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 57 86 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 59 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.