textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 659 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 - A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues across the Alabama and northwest Florida Gulf beaches through midweek.

- A series of storm complexes will likely approach from the northwest through Thursday, bringing a chance for localized strong wind gusts and additional locally heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Forecast remains on track. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A northwesterly upper-level flow pattern will be in place through at least Thursday as our local area remains sandwiched between an upper ridge over the Gulf and upper troughing over the Great Lakes. Guidance continues to suggest that several embedded shortwaves will move within this newly-established flow pattern. The first of these shortwaves looks to approach the area later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Currently, this shortwave is located over Oklahoma and is helping to spark a developing MCS. This MCS should continue southeastward throughout the day today, potentially approaching our northwestern counties by the late afternoon/early evening hours. As stated in previous discussions, guidance tends to struggle with these types of complexes (with regards to their strength and timing). That being said, the general consensus is that storms should be weakening upon arrival. Although the environment will be very unstable (CAPE values possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg in spots), shear values will likely remain around 20 knots or less, suggesting that the complex should be outflow-dominant by time it arrives. And with subsident effects from the nearby ridge along rising heights, am not anticipating much in the way of storm redevelopment/MCS maintenance. If however, the MCS is able to hold on long enough to enter the area, then I can't rule out gusty winds to around 40-60 mph over our northwestern counties, associated with any lingering storms, or even just the outflow itself. This strong wind threat quickly drops off the further southeast you go.

Guidance suggests that the remnant outflow boundary from tonight's MCS may slow down and potentially stall over our area. As it does so, it may try to reorient itself from northwest to southeast across the area. If this occurs, this will help to do two things: 1) it would serve as a focus for additional storms to develop along through midweek, and 2) any additional MCSs or storm complexes may ride along this boundary and push into the area from the northwest. Due to this, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across the area Tuesday through Thursday. If storm complexes are able to maintain their strength, we could see at least some potential for severe weather (mainly a damaging wind threat). Localized flooding still cannot be ruled out due to the saturated antecedent conditions.

By Friday, the ridge is expected to build northward into the area. This would help to lower rain chances for Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

Highs through Thursday will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s, with low to mid 90s returning for Friday and the upcoming weekend. We should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria through the period, although most areas may see heat indices rise to around 100- 105. Lows will be in the 70s. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through midweek, finally dropping to a Low Risk by late week. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated storms will develop this afternoon along the I-65 corridor before dissipating by this evening. Additional isolated storms are expected to move into areas north of Highway 84 after midnight. Winds stay generally southwesterly today around 10 knots with gusts up to 15-20 knots. /22

MARINE

Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

High pressure will extend from the southwest Atlantic into the central Gulf through the most of the week. A light to occasional moderate southwest to westerly flow will prevail. Seas 2 to 3 feet will subside to 1 to 2 feet through midweek. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 77 93 75 / 20 0 50 10 Pensacola 91 80 92 78 / 20 10 50 10 Destin 89 80 90 78 / 20 10 50 10 Evergreen 91 74 90 72 / 20 20 40 10 Waynesboro 92 75 90 73 / 10 30 40 20 Camden 89 74 86 71 / 20 50 40 20 Crestview 92 76 93 74 / 20 10 50 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.