textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 521 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Patchy dense fog is possible the next several nights.

- Temperatures remain well above normal for the next 7-10 days. High temperatures will be near record territory, but will likely stay just below the records this week.

- Rip current risk remains MODERATE through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 521 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Latest night fog satellite product, marine observation platforms, and webcams are showing a small area of dense fog occurring across the northern Mobile Bay. The latest CAMs are showing this fog moving out of the area shortly after daybreak. Issued a short period marine Dense Fog Advisory with an expiration time of 8am. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Ridging aloft generally remains in control this week and into the first half of the weekend. A persistent onshore flow will continue in this pattern as the local area remains on the western periphery of a surface high over the western Atlantic. Moisture levels continue to gradually increase over the next few days in the southerly flow with PWATs of 1.5+ inches streaming into the area by Friday. Isolated showers are possible by Thursday afternoon in this pattern (relatively hit-or-miss in the afternoon with most spots staying dry) with scattered showers and storms possible by Friday afternoon. The best chance for rain remains generally west of the I- 65 corridor on Friday. This pattern will also lead to patchy dense fog in the overnight and pre-dawn hours, especially across the southern portion of the area.

As we roll deeper into the week and into the weekend, a series of shortwaves dip across the central CONUS as an upper level low pinches off from the trough. This cut-off low retrogrades toward SoCal over the weekend and eventually dampens out as it drifts eastward early next week. Our onshore flow aloft likely turns more zonal as we head into Sunday and Monday. A line of storms organizes well to our northwest over the weekend along a front, but the storms (and front) begin to wash out as they slide closer to our local area. At this point, it's tough to tell just how far the activity will make it into our area, but there will be a chance for showers and storms through the weekend due to the proximity of the approaching front. Looking further ahead, the next chance for storms looks to be in the middle to latter part of next week.

Beach Forecast - MODERATE risk for rip currents continues through the week and into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance continues to indicate a high-end MODERATE risk on Friday given the persistent onshore flow. We will continue to monitor trends as any further increase in winds will likely lead to a bump in the rip current risk late in the week. 07/mb

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

IFR to LIFR ceilings are settling into the coastal Alabama terminals at 05z. Low ceilings and visibility will continue to slowly spread into southeast Mississippi through the overnight and pre-dawn hours, especially across the southern portion of the area. Ceilings should improve to MVFR after sunrise. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1236 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

No significant marine impacts expected other than the low-end potential for patchy fog close to the coastline in the overnight and early morning hours for the next several days. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 80 61 80 65 / 0 0 20 10 Pensacola 74 62 75 65 / 0 0 20 0 Destin 73 61 73 62 / 0 0 10 0 Evergreen 84 57 83 60 / 0 0 20 0 Waynesboro 82 60 82 64 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 82 57 82 61 / 0 0 20 0 Crestview 81 57 81 60 / 0 0 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ630.