textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 248 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through tonight for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Rain chances increase Thursday into Saturday with the potential for locally heavy rainfall mainly Friday and Saturday. A few strong storms capable of producing strong wind gusts will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

An upper ridge over the region will likely suppress all, or nearly all, convective development over the area on Wednesday. The upper ridge soon weakens and later retreats into the far western Atlantic as a modest upper trof over the northwestern Gulf slowly progresses into eastern Texas through Thursday while an evolving upper trof traverses the Plains and begins to advance into the eastern states. While the northern portion of the upper trof continues across the interior eastern states through Friday, a broad and weak upper trof will be left roughly from eastern Texas up to along the Ohio River valley. By Thursday afternoon, this pattern sets up a weak cold front from northeast Texas to across Tennessee and into the mid Atlantic states. The frontal boundary steadily weakens going into Friday but also appears to drift into northern Mississippi/Alabama before dissipating Friday night. The retreat of the upper ridge from the area allows for abundant deep layer moisture to spread into the region along with a progressively more convective favorable environment. Have gone with chance pops well inland to likely/categorical pops elsewhere on Thursday, then pops trend to likely/categorical areawide on Friday. A weak upper trof persists on Saturday from roughly eastern Texas to the mid Mississippi River valley, after which the upper ridge located mostly over the far western Atlantic builds back across the southeastern states Sunday on into Monday. Have continued with likely to categorical pops on Saturday, then rain chances trend to mostly chance pops on Monday.

With a weak steering flow, storms that develop each day will be slow moving which could lead to locally heavy rainfall mainly on Friday and Saturday when the best rain chances are anticipated. Highs on Wednesday will be 90-95 then trend to upper 80s to lower 90s for Friday through Sunday. Highs then gradually trend to the lower 90s on Monday. Heat index values tend to range from 95-102 through Friday then slowly trend to 100-105 by Monday. Lows each night will be in the 70s. A moderate risk of rip currents is in effect through Wednesday night, then a low risk is anticipated for Thursday through Saturday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast package. Not anticipating much, if any coverage of SHRA/TSRA later today with a mainly dry day ahead. Winds to pick up along the coast bearing 070-090 at 10-15kts and occasionally higher gusts, otherwise, VFR will prevail into the evening hours on Wednesday. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Moderate easterly flow will persist through early this afternoon at around 10-15kts, 12-18kts 20nm to 60nm. Small craft operators on the Gulf should exercise caution through this evening. Light onshore flow returns for the rest of the week into the weekend. Seas around 2 to 3 feet will subside to around 1 foot Thursday through the remainder of the forecast. Waterspouts are possible early each morning. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 74 89 74 / 0 10 70 50 Pensacola 91 78 88 77 / 10 30 70 50 Destin 91 78 88 78 / 10 30 60 60 Evergreen 93 72 92 71 / 0 0 60 20 Waynesboro 94 73 94 72 / 0 0 40 10 Camden 93 73 93 72 / 0 0 40 10 Crestview 92 73 90 72 / 10 10 80 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.