textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Moderate to strong easterly component in winds may occasionally create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas through Friday, becoming a High Risk this weekend.

- Rain returns to the area this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Starting the period with a low amplitude ridge of high pressure aloft while a surface ridge of high pressure extends from the Mid-Atlantic to the lower MS River Valley. Upstream, a southern stream storm system was pushing eastward into the southwest U.S. The ridging in place supports a tranquil near term to close out the week. Overnight lows range in the lower/mid 50's interior to lower/mid 60's coast tonight and highs for Friday in the lower half of the 80's, both periods unseasonably warm for late October. Clouds to begin spreading into the area from the west Friday as energy ejects across the Plains and short-wave mid/upper level ridge pivots east of the area. Unfortunately, Saturday's Halloween activities look to be mired with thickening cloud cover and increased rain chances going through the day and into the evening as the axis of the southern stream storm system aloft moves atop the area. Ahead of this feature, low level winds turn more south to southeasterly Saturday favoring a northward surge of deep Gulf moisture overspreading the area where PWAT's lift to 1.8 to 2.1". These values will be trending to ~2 standard deviations above the mean for October 31st. Considering this and increased ascent with the approach and passage of the mid level forcing, PoPs tick upward beginning Saturday and remain in the forecast through Sunday before PoPs lower Sunday night into Monday as the system lifts out and short-wave ridging aloft builds in from the west. At this time, the risk of severe storms looks marginal at best Saturday and Saturday night considering weak flow and lack of a frontal boundary to provide surface based forcing.

The next in a series of storm systems will be diving across the Rockies Monday with a long-wave upper trof amplifying across the Plains Monday night. This feature approaches the lower MS River Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. At the same time, a complex surface pattern looks to evolve with a cold front advancing eastward across the lower MS River Valley Wednesday AM. Extending out from the front looks to be a warm front. How these features evolve/placement of warm sector/instability axis and the strength/structure of the flow with height will drive whether there will be a severe weather threat materializing over the central Gulf coast the middle of next week. Something will be watching on later forecasts.

Highs ranging in the upper 70's/lower 80's Saturday held more in check Sunday in the mid to upper 70's. Highs back into the upper 70's/lower 80's early next week. Overnight lows mild thru Wednesday AM.

A moderate risk of rip currents the remainder of the week looks to transition to a high risk over the weekend considering an evolving more established moderate southeast flow. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. The current generally northeasterly winds will wane overnight for inland areas. By Friday morning, winds will be easterly at 5-10 knots with periodic gusts up to 15-20 knots, especially closer to the coast. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light to moderate northeasterly to easterly winds prevail through Friday, occasionally becoming stronger well offshore. Small craft should exercise caution over the Gulf late tonight into Friday. A moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow follows for Saturday through Tuesday. The increased fetch builds seas such that small craft advisories may become required by Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 61 82 65 81 / 0 0 0 40 Pensacola 66 82 68 80 / 0 0 0 30 Destin 66 82 69 81 / 0 0 0 20 Evergreen 56 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 30 Waynesboro 54 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 30 Camden 54 81 61 77 / 0 0 0 30 Crestview 60 84 64 82 / 0 0 0 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.