textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through early next week.

- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected into early next week.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Through Sunday, an upper high off the East Coast builds west over the Southeast, shifting a weakness in an upper ridge over the Southeast further west. A surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast shifts north to over the Southeast proper, albeit remains disorganized with the upper weakness over/near the region still exerting some influence. The limited organized deep layer flow off the Gulf will keep moisture levels around 2", with guidance advertising bands of drier air moving over the the forecast area at times into the weekend. The inconsistent moisture levels along with building upper ridge is limiting PoPs to isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon/early evening over land areas, the rest of the week through the weekend. Am also still expecting isolated convection to form over the open Gulf and coast later in the night into the morning hours as the slight cooling over Gulf waters allow for shallow (relative to land areas) convection to form. With good afternoon instability (MLCapes rising to 2000-2500J/kg at times), but limited wind shear, pulse type storms are expected. Add in DCapes around 1000J/kg range, damaging downbursts are possible in the taller storms.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms through Sunday. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s (around 90 along the coast) are expected. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are expected. Heat indices generally in the 100-107 degree range are expected each day.

Monday on, guidance starts to diverge in the upper levels, with some deterministic guidance advertising the upper weakness west of the Southeast working its way back east over the region, whilst others keep it west. The result is a bit warmer/drier forecast as apposed to a bit cooler/wetter. The overall difference is small, so near seasonal temperatures and PoPs a bit below are expected.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to a Moderate is indicated Saturday, with the onshore flow a bit better organized combined with an increasing tidal cycle. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period, outside of any thunderstorms. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon before diminishing early this evening. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings, along with gusty and erratic winds, near any thunderstorms. Winds will become calm overnight. Another round of storms may develop along the coastline by 09z or so. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A weakly organized surface ridge over/near the northern Gulf coast will create a light to at times moderate mostly onshore flow through the forecast. Near coastal areas will see a switch to offshore flow overnight into the morning hours at times as a land breeze sets up with the night cooling. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 0 Pensacola 89 76 90 76 / 10 10 20 0 Destin 89 77 89 77 / 10 10 20 10 Evergreen 92 71 92 72 / 30 20 10 10 Waynesboro 96 72 95 73 / 30 20 0 10 Camden 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 10 10 Crestview 93 72 93 72 / 20 10 20 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.