textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase late week, especially Thursday and Friday. A few storms could become strong with locally strong wind gusts and isolated flooding from intense rainfall rates the primary concerns. A mainly morning waterspout risk will also continue each day across marine areas.

- Highest Heat index values mainly 103 to 107 through remainder of the week. A few areas may see heat indices 108 to 110. Heat related products may be needed for portions of the area during the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

01.12Z Upper air maps show a well defined and large low to mid level ridge axis centered over the TN River Valley. The westward and eastern extent of the ridge extends from eastern OK to the southeast U.S. Water Vapor imagery shows a dry slot on the southern periphery of this ridge from Oklahoma to across the northwest FL Panhandle. There is a gradient of precipitable waters (pwat's) aligned over the forecast area with drier values ranging around 1.70" over the interior while a belt of higher moisture (2.00") hugs the coastal zones. Considering moisture, the onset of afternoon instability and coastal sea-breeze boundary as a focus, anticipate isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop through the afternoon with the better probabilities along and south of a line from New Augusta MS to Crestview FL. This is supported by the high resolution CAM's and short range ensembles. The risk of severe weather is low but cannot rule out an overachieving storm to produce brief strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and locally heavy rains. A rapid diurnal decrease in storm coverage is expected this evening and overnight. A similar set up follows for Wednesday. Lows change little tonight mainly in the mid 70's. Highs 92 to 97 north of I-10 to upper 80's/lower 90's coast Wednesday. Highest heat indices Wednesday range 103 to 107. A few areas may approach 108 to 110, but coverage at this time is not widespread enough for a heat advisory. This may change on later shifts.

Thursday into Friday sees a shift in the forecast as the ridge center to our north slips east into the mid Atlantic states. On the southern periphery of the ridge, a tap of Atlantic moisture (higher pwat's increasing 2.1 to 2.3") spreads westward over the area and the combination of weak impulses riding west over the local area and any weakly reflected surface boundaries in the mesoscale sets the stage for likely PoP chances both days. The greatest coverage in the afternoon/evening hours over land zones and the morning hours coastal/marine areas. Can't rule out a few strong storms or even perhaps isolated areas of locally heavy rains resulting in mainly nuisance type flooding. Something forecasters will keep an eye on. With the expectation of thickening clouds and higher rain chances, highs trend lower, especially on Friday. Gridded highs reflect 90-93 for highest numbers but note this may be a category or two too high with some areas possibly not getting out of the lower 80's some areas. All depends on the timing/onset/duration of rains.

Late in the weekend into early next week, modest rain chances expected each day. Highs in the lower/mid 90's and lows lower/mid 70's. Heat related products may be needed for portions of the area during the weekend into early next week for heat indices 108 to 111. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions expected next 24 hrs. Afternoon cumulus with bases generally 3 to 6 kft expected. Winds this afternoon mostly light and taking on more of southerly component at terminals. There are indications of isolated perhaps scattered shra/tsra developing over the southern tier of zones through the afternoon, but these appear to be more in vicinity of the terminals than prevailing. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings with the passage of shra/tsra. /10

MARINE

Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Away from influence of thunderstorms, a weak pressure pattern results in light winds through the rest of the week. Seas around a foot. Showers and storms trend higher in coverage Thursday and Friday becoming more scattered to numerous. Main hazards with any stronger storms will be localized wind gusts greater than 34 knots, frequent lightning activity, locally higher waves/seas, and waterspouts. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 93 74 92 / 10 30 20 60 Pensacola 77 92 77 90 / 0 20 30 70 Destin 78 91 78 89 / 0 10 30 70 Evergreen 73 97 73 95 / 10 10 20 40 Waynesboro 73 97 74 97 / 0 10 10 30 Camden 74 97 74 96 / 0 10 10 20 Crestview 73 95 73 92 / 10 10 10 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.