textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 635 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the upcoming weekend. A few storms could become strong capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Isolated flooding from intense rainfall rates the primary concerns.

- Waterspouts remain possible any given morning from the pre-dawn hours through mid-morning over the marine waters.

- Highest heat index values of 103 to 107 are expected mainly Sunday and Monday, locally as high as 110. Heat related products may be needed for portions of the area early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The upper ridge over the area will weaken and become more elongated north of the area through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a weak easterly wave/weak sfc low will continue to move westward across the northern Gulf. The deep easterly flow between these systems will bring increasing moisture into the area with precipitable water values climbing to 2.4 inches by Friday afternoon. The wave over the northern Gulf will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the marine and coastal areas through Friday. The combination of the weaker ridge and increased moisture will bring higher rain chances to the area through Saturday with scattered to numerous showers and storms each day. Coverage will be highest offshore at night and inland during the afternoon and evening hours.

Rain chances continue through early next week as an eastern states trough digs southward with a weak backdoor front moving into the area Sunday and stalling through Monday. The front then dissipates by Tuesday. This will maintain at least scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening across land areas and during the morning over the marine area.

Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s Friday and Saturday. Highs warm into the low to mid 90s by early next week with heat index values of 105 to 110 for the beginning of next week. /13

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region. A few lingering showers this evening wane over the next couple hours, with dry weather expected through most the night for the area. Isolated showers and storms may get going near the coast prior to daybreak, mainly along the Florida Panhandle coast into coastal Baldwin County. Storm chances shift onshore through the morning, becoming scattered to locally numerous in coverage by the afternoon hours areawide. Expect reductions in ceiling and visibility by several flight categories underneath any showers or storms. Winds will remain generally southerly less than 5 knots this evening, calming during the overnight hours. Winds turn easterly around 5 to 10 knots during the day Friday. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A generally light east to southeast flow pattern will become westerly this weekend. A light southerly flow returns early next week. Rain chances will also increase through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours. A few waterspouts will be possible each morning. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 90 73 90 / 30 60 20 90 Pensacola 77 89 77 89 / 30 60 40 60 Destin 77 88 78 88 / 30 60 50 60 Evergreen 73 94 72 92 / 0 50 20 70 Waynesboro 73 95 73 93 / 10 40 20 60 Camden 74 94 73 93 / 10 30 20 60 Crestview 73 91 72 91 / 20 60 20 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.