textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Dry weather expected through the weekend, with better rain chances returning in the coming week.

- Below normal overnight lows expected tonight. Highs and lows trend warmer, then well above normal by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Now through Friday...

Through Monday night...a weak upper ridge over the eastern Conus moves off the East Coast and builds. Upper level shortwave energy passes over the Southeast today before the building ridge deflects the energy well north of the forecast area, joining and forming a weak upper low off the Florida Atlantic coast by Monday. A surface ridge stretching west over the Southeast becomes better organized, bringing increasing Gulf moisture inland, especially over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The combination of the building upper ridge along the East Coast and better onshore flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will maintain a band of drier air (precipitable h20 values around 1" or less) moving onshore over the forecast area into Monday. The embedded upper trough shifts west over the Florida Peninsula Monday, allowing better moisture to move inland over the forecast area. Some CAMS are advertising a few rainshowers and a few thunderstorms developing Monday as the better moisture moves inland.

Temperatures rise through the period, with high temperatures rising to the upper 80s to around 90 by Monday. By Monday night, low temperatures rise into the mid 60s to around 70.

Tuesday on, an upper ridge along the East Coast deamplifies into mid week as a series of upper level shortwave trough pass over/near the Southeast. The surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast shifts north a bit and weakens, with a surface cold front approaching the forecast area Thursday into Friday. Mid/upper level flow shifts to southwesterly, which in combination with the upper ridge weakening, allows the better moisture levels west of the forecast area to shift east to over the forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms increase over the forecast area mid week in response. The upper ridge remains in control enough for temperatures to rise to around 5 degrees above seasonal norms by mid week, with a bit of a drop northwest of I-65 the end of the week as the cold front slowly sags southeast over the forecast area.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, weak onshore flow and a small tidal range will keep any swell on area beaches low into the weekend, with a Low Risk of rip currents expected. Onshore flow on area beaches becomes more organized over the weekend into the coming week. Combined with an increasing tidal range, a Moderate Risk of rip currents returns Tuesday. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions expected over most of the area through the forecast. Local drops in conditions to LIFR or lower are possible in favored areas. Light southerly winds overnight rise to around 10 knots and gusty during the day. /16

MARINE

Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A generally light onshore flow will continue through the weekend. Winds will increase by early next week as another system approaches from the west. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 63 84 69 86 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 67 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 68 81 71 82 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 57 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 59 86 65 88 / 0 10 0 20 Camden 59 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 60 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.