textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Friday through the upcoming weekend. A few storms could become strong with locally strong wind gusts and isolated flooding from intense rainfall rates the primary concerns. A mainly morning waterspout risk will also continue each day across marine areas.

- Highest heat index values of 103 to 107 are expected mainly Sunday and Monday, and a few areas may see values of 108 to 110. Heat related products may be needed for portions of the area early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Performed a brief gridded forecast update to reflect recent/latest guidance through the day today. No major changes to the forecast needed, other than ingesting the latest NBM PoPs for later this afternoon, which is coming in noticably higher, matching most recent CAM guidance for areas generally along/west of Mobile into SE MS, where the greatest coverage/confidence will be today. Meanwhile, eastern/northern sections of the CWA will remain mostly dry given slightly drier tropospheric air holding tight today. No adjustments needed for temperatures as they remain on track as well, with afternoon heat indices in the 103-107 range. KLG

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A gradually lessening of the upper high pressure area centered over the Tennessee Valley to a more elongated ridge from the central and southern Plains to the Atlantic will occur through late in the day on Friday. This ridge will then retrograde westward over the central CONUS through the remainder of the week as an upper trough digs southward along the Eastern Seaboard. The mid-lower high pressure area over the Tennessee Valley will also gradually weaken while a mid-lower easterly wave moves west- northwestward over the eastern and northern Gulf today through Friday.

An enhanced deep easterly flow between these two systems will allow deep moisture to enter into the region with PWATs increasing up to around 2.4" by noon Friday. Models are now showing a central closed low pressure area as low as 925mb embedded within the wave that should reach southern Louisiana by midnight Friday night with a possibly weak surface low pressure area forming somewhere across the northeastern Gulf tonight. For today, we are only expecting isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms mainly south of Highway 84, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms along the coast overnight. A substantial increase in PoPs will occur through the remainder of the week, with numerous to widespread coverage on Friday and Saturday. Can't rule out a few strong storms or even perhaps isolated areas of locally heavy rains resulting in mainly nuisance type flooding, along with waterspout development possible mainly during the morning hours each day over the marine area.

We remain in this wetter pattern through at least Monday as the base of the Eastern Seaboard upper trough remains over the southeast states along with a possibly backdoor cold front entering into the forecast area on Sunday and then meanders through Monday before dissipating. Therefore, we are still expecting daily occurrences of scattered to numerous daytime showers and storms during the afternoon/evening hours over land zones and the morning hours coastal/marine areas through Monday, and potentially into midweek.

Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s today, and range from 88 to 93 degrees Friday and Saturday before climbing back into the lower to middle 90s on Sunday. Daytime heat index values of 100-105 are expected through the remainder of the week, trending to 105 to 110 degrees early next week. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals early this morning. We'll see another round of SCT TSRA/SHRA this afternoon, primarily from 18-23Z with greater confidence for KMOB/KBFM with best timed PROB30's were introduced. Impacts will be brief/limited with periodic lower VIS/CIGs from heavy rain. Otherwise, KJKA and KPNS, confidence is too low to mention but will monitor. Quiet tonight, but will monitor coastal TSRA/SHRA after midnight that could impact KPNS and KJKA daybreak tomorrow. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow pattern is expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with offshore winds expected at night and onshore winds during the day. Rain chances will also increase over the coming days, especially on Friday. A few waterspouts will be possible each morning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 93 74 89 73 / 30 30 90 30 Pensacola 91 77 88 77 / 10 40 70 30 Destin 91 77 88 78 / 30 30 70 30 Evergreen 96 73 93 71 / 10 10 60 30 Waynesboro 97 74 94 73 / 30 10 70 30 Camden 96 75 93 73 / 0 10 60 20 Crestview 94 73 90 72 / 10 20 70 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.