textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Increasing concern for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding over the next several days, especially across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama.

- HIGH Risk for Rip Currents today through at least Thursday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Overall forecast remains generally on track. Over the next few hours, there will likely be an increased probability for moderate to heavy showers and storms across the Florida Panhandle as a couple clusters of storms collide and lift north out of the marine waters. These will likely produce heavy rainfall, primarily east of Pensacola, but given this portion of the forecast area has been notably drier flash flooding is not expected at this time. However, if storms can train over some of our urban areas in the Florida Panhandle that could cause some minor flooding issues. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Convection over the Gulf has been the focus of our attention this evening with the first batch of storms just now reaching the Florida panhandle beaches. Another round of storms is sitting 50+ nautical miles offshore and looks to slide generally northward over the next few hours, likely approaching the coastal communities by roughly 09z. There's been a signal in several of the CAMs over the past 12 hours that convection will also likely begin flaring up somewhere west of I-65 (across the southern tier of counties) between roughly 09-12z with the bulk of the convection developing and sliding into the region by late morning into the afternoon hours. A few strong to severe storms are certainly possible with the storms on Memorial Day, however, flooding is the bigger concern. The recent 00z HREF probability-matched mean (PMM) for QPF shows a few bullseyes of of 4- 7 inches of rain across portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama this afternoon into the early evening hours. The bullseyes have shifted run-to-run, but there's a general trend that somewhere west of I-65 could easily rack up 3+ inches of rain this afternoon and evening.

Furthermore, the main concern over the coming days remains flooding. While we don't anticipate widespread flooding issues, we do anticipate multiple rounds of storms producing very heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. The potential for flooding will be highly dependent on the rainfall rates along with the movement of the storms (slower storms or storms that repeatedly move over the same locations will be problematic). Storms over the next few days will easily be capable of producing 1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time. Given the significant flooding on Friday in central Mobile County and the very saturated soils, that area in particular will be highly susceptible to additional flash flooding in the coming days.

A wet pattern will persist through the week as the area remains on the western periphery of a ridge sitting over the western Atlantic. Deep onshore flow prevails with PWATs surging to over 2.0 inches at times this week. Multiple subtle shortwaves will ride through the flow aloft, providing ample ascent for the development of showers and storms throughout the week. Heavy rain is the predominant concern, although we cannot rule out a few strong to potentially severe storms with gusty downburst winds each afternoon. For now, we are holding off on a Flood Watch given the low confidence in exactly where these storms might set up across the area. However, a Watch could be on the table at some point if our confidence in locations increases (as we don't want to issue a Watch for the entire area when some locations may not rain much at all).

Beach Forecast - Given the consistent onshore flow signal over the coming days, the risk for rip currents will be HIGH for the Memorial Day holiday through through at least Thursday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Offshore storms will only act to amplify the surf and rip currents each day. 07/mb

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Generally VFR to MVFR flight category will prevail across the area for the next few hours until MVFR to IFR ceilings in association with ongoing showers and storms overspreads the area from the south. Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up significantly as we head into daybreak and the morning hours, with reductions in flight category expected through a majority of the morning. By the afternoon hours, things should start to improve somewhat as storms shift east with MVFR flight category returning in their wake. Winds will remain out of the south at 5 to 10 knots through Tuesday. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the forecast. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet through this afternoon, increasing to 3 to 4 feet tonight into midweek. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 71 82 72 / 90 70 90 40 Pensacola 82 73 82 74 / 90 70 90 30 Destin 82 74 83 74 / 90 60 80 30 Evergreen 80 69 81 70 / 100 60 100 20 Waynesboro 80 69 80 70 / 100 60 100 40 Camden 79 68 79 69 / 90 60 100 30 Crestview 82 70 84 70 / 90 60 80 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.