textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 - A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen behind the front along with building seas.

- A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84.

UPDATE

Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Performed a brief gridded update this morning mainly to bring in short-range guidance matched with radar trends. Starting to see weak echoes from KMOB radar approaching from the west. Proximity soundings indicate plenty of dry air below a thicker, moist mid- tropospheric layer aloft from 650-300mb. This is a strong indication that these showers will start out as elevated echoes/virga and take some time to wet bulb/moisture the profile. Any slightly heavier echoes aloft won't have any problem making it to the surface through this layer and will continue to keep in 20-40% PoPs through the morning. This activity departs to the east early to mid afternoon, with sunshine returning later in the day. NBM highs did come down lower for northwestern areas, given longevity of being under thicker cloud cover, longer throwout the day so no major adjustments were needed here. Otherwise, turning quiet tonight with no major adjustments needed beyond into tonight as everything remains on track. KLG

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1115 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Rain returns to the forecast today as a shortwave pushes across the area. Light overrunning to start the morning will allow for isolated to scattered showers pushing across the area from west to east. As the shortwave transits the area into the afternoon hours, rain chances increase, particularly nearer the coast. At the moment, any chance for thunder is low but can't rule out a couple rumbles of thunder with more robust convection mid morning into the afternoon hours. Things should dry out fairly quickly in the wake of this system mid to late afternoon, with perhaps a shower or two lingering across areas east of the I-65 corridor through sunset.

A much drier, cooler airmass begins to infiltrate the region from the north in the wake of a powerful cold front Thursday into Friday, with the coldest air of the season looming for Friday night and Saturday night. There is the potential for a frost/freeze those nights, mainly over interior counties near and north of the Highway 84 corridor. Most of the area will see lows in the lower to middle 30's, with upper 30's to lower 40's near the immediate coast. Frost and/or Freeze products may become necessary in future forecast packages for that timeframe. As we head into next week, a large area of high pressure begins to dominate the eastern CONUS with a southern stream shortwave beginning to work its way across the gulf coast states early in the week. There is a lot of variance in the guidance on how this system evolves, but an increase in rain and storm chances is possible early on in the week, particularly if further north solutions on this system come to fruition. The rip current risk remains Low today, becoming a Moderate risk tonight into Thursday. A Low risk returns for area beaches Thursday night into the weekend. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Early this morning, recent radar trends indicate -SHRA increasing from the west, which will persist throughout the morning. Main impacts will be lower CIGs and periodic lower VIS from isolated showers throughout the morning. This activity will depart to the east this afternoon, with VFR prevailing this evening into tonight. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 146 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A weak disturbance will introduce light showers this morning, through mid afternoon with light westerly flow. A strong cold front will sweep across the region early Thursday ranging 6-12kts for protected waters, to 12-17kts for Gulf waters. Small craft should exercise caution across Gulf waters Midnight Thursday through Thursday and Friday. Waves/seas slowly respond to around 1-2ft for protected waters to 3-4 feet for Gulf zones. Next storm system is expected to impact the area Monday, introducing showers and thunderstorms and increasing northeast winds to near or at gale- force along with dangerously high waves/seas reaching 7-12ft for Gulf zones. Winds/seas remain elevated with ongoing hazardous marine conditions through mid-week next week. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 58 75 44 / 30 0 0 0 Pensacola 73 63 75 49 / 20 0 0 0 Destin 72 64 76 50 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 70 52 71 38 / 30 0 0 0 Waynesboro 75 54 72 38 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 70 55 68 37 / 10 0 0 0 Crestview 71 53 75 41 / 20 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.