textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potentially resulting in localized flash flooding remain possible through Monday.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will occur through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A zonal flow pattern persists over the forecast region through Sunday as a large upper trof pattern remains across much of the Plains to the interior eastern states. A series of vigorous shortwaves continue to move across the area meanwhile, aided by a remnant upper low currently over Texas which shears out downstream. Rounds of convection are anticipated to develop and progress across the area in response to this pattern, although timing these has proved difficult due to the inherently noisy series of shortwaves. That said, the first round of convection is anticipated to occur from late tonight through the early afternoon likely in the form of an MCS, with some convection lingering into the evening hours. Model soundings indicate that the convection that develops late tonight will probably be elevated, and it's not clear if convection will manage to become surface based on Saturday. Lapse rates within the mixed layer appear to range from 6.5 to possibly 7.5 C/km, and if these higher end lapse rates are realized and shear profiles prove to be favorable, then the convection may be able to support a risk of large hail and possibly strong wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible through the day.

The amount of convective coverage on Sunday remains difficult to ascertain, but with the continuing series of shortwaves have opted for chance to likely pops. Shear values look low on Sunday and 0-6 km bulk shear values typically range from 20-30 knots, but steep mid level lapse rates are possible. Will need to continue to monitor this period at this point, though storms with large hail and strong wind gusts are possible especially if more favorable shear values are realized. The broad upper trof pattern amplifies over the eastern half of the CONUS Sunday night into Monday, then moves off into the western Atlantic on Tuesday. An associated surface low is expected to meanwhile bring a cold front through the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday morning, with the front stalling near the coast before moving offshore later in the afternoon. Have gone with chance to likely pops Sunday night increasing to predominately likely pops on Monday, then dry conditions develop Monday night in the wake of the front. Favorable shear values appear to be in place on Monday along with sufficient instability to continue the potential for strong to possibly some severe storms. Dry conditions are expected to follow for Tuesday through next Saturday. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Alabama beaches through Saturday night while the western Florida panhandle beaches are anticipated to have a moderate risk. A moderate risk follows for all beach areas from Sunday through Monday, then a low risk is expected on Tuesday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

In general, VFR conditions are in place at issuance time. Over the next few hours, ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR or IFR as another round of showers and storms pushes through the area. Expect visibility reductions in some of the heavier activity. Rain chances start to lower by the late afternoon and we should dry out by the evening hours. VFR conditions may briefly return for the evening. Winds will generally be southeasterly to southerly today, although they may briefly turn northerly in the wake of this morning's storms. /96

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly flow will prevail through this afternoon. Winds turn onshore tonight and will continue through the weekend. Offshore winds return on Monday and will increase to a moderate to occasionally strong flow by Monday night in the wake of a cold front. A brief Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for our local Gulf waters Monday night. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 80 67 83 68 / 80 40 80 60 Pensacola 80 70 81 70 / 80 40 60 60 Destin 79 70 80 70 / 80 50 60 60 Evergreen 79 63 83 64 / 90 50 70 60 Waynesboro 78 64 83 65 / 80 40 60 70 Camden 77 63 82 64 / 80 40 60 60 Crestview 81 65 84 66 / 90 50 80 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.