textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 121 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 - Another round of freezing temperatures is expected across northern portions of the area tonight, with frost possible across much of the remainder of the area away from the immediate coast.

- Strong easterly winds develop over the marine area Monday, resulting in a High Risk of rip currents and potentially hazardous surf conditions through midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A large upper-level trough continues to progress slowly across the eastern CONUS, with strong surface high pressure maintaining cool and dry conditions across the area through the weekend. Highs this afternoon barely reach 60 degrees across most areas away from the coast. Overnight lows tonight range from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s near the coast, with another round of freezing temperatures expected across northern portions of the area. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for these areas, while areas of frost are expected farther south. The Frost Advisory has been trimmed to exclude Stone, George, and southern Mobile and Baldwin counties, as increasing high clouds may limit radiational cooling overnight compared to last night. Highs Sunday will range from around 60 degrees inland to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere. Increasing cloud cover Sunday night should result in milder temperatures, though patchy frost may still develop across interior locations.

Early next week, a weakening upper low advances from the south- central states while an inverted surface trough and possibly a transient surface low develop over the northwestern Gulf. Strong surface high pressure to the east should limit the system's northward or eastward progression, keeping most of the area dry. Only a few showers or sprinkles are possible across southeast Mississippi Monday and near the immediate coast Monday evening. However, some guidance, including the ECMWF AIFS and its ensembles, continues to indicate measurable rainfall across southern portions of the area Monday into Monday night. Will continue to monitor trends for potential beneficial rainfall, though it still appears unlikely at this time. Highs Monday remain cool, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with widespread cloud cover and increased northeast flow.

Starting Tuesday, upper-level ridging builds across the eastern states and persists through the remainder of the week. Dry conditions are expected as temperatures gradually moderate, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s by the end of the week. Overnight lows return to the 40s inland and 50s near the coast.

Strong surface high pressure to the north and developing low pressure over the Gulf will tighten the pressure gradient, resulting in strong east-northeasterly winds over the marine area beginning Monday. A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected to develop Monday or Monday night, with potentially hazardous surf conditions continuing through midweek, especially for Alabama beaches. JGC/98

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Northerly winds will transitions to northeasterly on Sunday. /16

MARINE

Issued at 121 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Light to moderate northeast flow increases to moderate to strong on Sunday. Strong high pressure to the north and lower pressure over the Gulf will result in an increasing pressure gradient over the northern Gulf early next week. In response, strong easterly to northeasterly flow and seas locally greater than 7 feet are expected to develop on Monday with advisory level conditions expected through much of the week over the Gulf waters. JGC/98

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 38 64 45 60 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 45 64 50 61 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 46 64 51 61 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 33 61 38 58 / 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 34 63 40 61 / 0 0 10 10 Camden 32 60 37 58 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 35 62 40 58 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday for ALZ051>058.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday for ALZ059-060-261-262.

FL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday for FLZ201-203-205.

MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday for MSZ067.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday for MSZ075-076.

GM...None.