textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- A High Risk of rip currents and elevated surf heights up to 4 feet continues through this afternoon.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf today through tonight.

- Heat Indices rise to the 100-106 degree range for Saturday through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Through Sunday... An upper high centered over Arkansas this morning gets a bit of a westward push as an upper low organizing off the East Coast pushes southwest over the Southeast to the eastern Gulf. A drier airmass continues to move over the forecast area, driven by northeasterly flow above the surface between the upper high and low, and a surface ridge along the eastern edge of the Appalachians. Precipitable h20 values around 1" or less were analyzed over the forecast area this morning,with the drier air mainly above 10k'. Drier air drops to 5k' or above closer to the east coast (KFFC, KJAX). This dry air pushes west over the northern Gulf coast, and the forecast area, with a dry forecast this afternoon into Friday. As the upper low moves near the Florida Atlantic coast into Friday, Atlantic moisture begins to move over the Southeast around the upper low, bringing a tongue of increased moisture back over the forecast area early Saturday into Saturday night, with guidance varying in the timing and magnitude. Some are advertising Saturday morning with PoPs starting to move over the forecast area, some late Saturday night, with the global models the fastest. The latest ensembles lean towards the global models, with the NBM following along. Have moved the first rains back over eastern portions of the forecast area Saturday afternoon, as most solutions supporting this.

Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms into the weekend, with low to mid 90s Friday rising to the mid to upper 90s Saturday. The increase in moisture levels late Saturday into Sunday shift the higher temperatures west, with high temperatures ranging from upper 90s along and west of the Alabama and Mississippi state line, low to mid 90s east. The increased moisture begins to show Sunday with respect to heat indices, with 95 to 99 degrees Friday rising to the 100 to 107 degree range Saturday to Sunday.

Sunday night on, the upper low opens into an upper trough and shifts east as the upper ridge builds back east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The increase in upper subsidence along with the increased moisture that has moved over the Southeast shifting east. The forecast area dries out, with PoPs shifting slowly south of the forecast through the week. A surface ridge again develops along the Appalachians, restoring cooler, drier northeasterly flow over the Southeast, with temperatures dropping to near seasonal norms by Thursday, with Heat Indices dropping below 100 by mid week.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, the moderate to strong easterly flow over the northern Gulf weakens through the end of the week, dropping the Rip Risk to a moderate by Friday and weak through the weekend. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Winds are expected to be northeast to easterly, 5-10 knots inland during the day becoming light overnight. Close to the coast, around 10 knots will slowly ease to 5 to 10 knots through the forecast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Moderate to strong easterly flow eases into Friday. Winds become a more diurnally afternoon onshore, night time offshore this weekend. A light to moderate easterly flow returns early in the coming week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 69 92 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 73 91 74 94 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 75 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 66 95 70 98 / 0 0 0 30 Waynesboro 66 95 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 67 96 71 98 / 0 0 0 20 Crestview 68 93 69 95 / 0 0 0 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650- 655-670-675.