textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026 - Dense fog development is likely tonight, particularly near and east of the I-65 corridor. Dense marine fog will persist through late week.

- Next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms will come Friday into Saturday ahead of the next cold front. The potential for strong to severe storms will be monitored over the coming days.

- Strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft Saturday night through Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Generally dry weather conditions prevail across the forecast area through Thursday, with perhaps an isolated shower or two over interior portions of south-central Alabama. High and low temperatures remain well above normal in the middle 70's with overnight lows in the upper 50's to lower 60's. The main forecast challenge remains dense fog. Dense marine fog persists near the immediate coast causing visibility problems across Dauphin Island through Fort Morgan. This should erode somewhat this afternoon before dense fog settles back in this evening into the overnight. A large portion of the area should sock back in to dense fog overnight tonight, particularly along and south/east of the I-65 corridor. Areas nearer the coast may see the densest fog as sea fog advects onshore. Fog should begin to lift Thursday morning for interior areas, perhaps lingering nearer the coast into late morning or early afternoon depending on how long sea fog wants to hang around.

As we head into Friday attention shifts towards the approaching storm system from the west. Fog concerns may still linger, although become more limited to sea fog and the immediate coast as low level winds increase quite a bit Thursday night into Friday. The storm system approaching from the west will likely increase rain and thunderstorm chances, particularly Friday afternoon into Friday night. There remains uncertainty on the severe weather potential during this period. While ample shear and instability will be in place for organized convection including miniature supercells and storm clusters, there remains questions on the quality of forcing that will be present in our forecast area. This may end up being one of those cases where the bulk of severe thunderstorms ends up happening further northwest of the forecast area where better forcing for ascent exists as a shortwave rounding the base of the trough remains displaced from us and upper ridging tries to hold strong here. Despite this, given the environment any storm that can develop will have the potential of becoming strong to severe, with best chances likely existing across our interior southeast Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama counties. Storms will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two.

As we head into Friday night and Saturday we begin to enter the right entrance region of the upper jet as the trough continues to translate east across the ArkLaMiss region. A surface cold front will move slowly across our forecast area, bringing with it scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms. We will continue to have adequate shear and instability in place Friday night into Saturday, with a continuation of at least an isolated severe threat with the strongest storms. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two remain possible. It is possible storms train over the same areas due to the slow-moving nature of the cold front and may pose a localized flash flooding threat, particularly for areas west of the I-65 corridor. The tornado threat will likely diminish Saturday with any storms as low level wind profiles veer out and hodographs become increasingly straight but the damaging wind and hail threat should continue until frontal passage.

In the wake of the front, things dry out quickly with temperatures dropping back to seasonable norms for this time of year Monday into the middle of next week with highs back in the lower to middle 50's and overnight lows in the upper 20's to middle 30's for most locations. We should gradually see a warming trend as we get into the middle of next week. A Low risk of rip currents continues through Thursday night, becoming a Moderate risk Friday and a High risk by Saturday. The rip current risk will start to decrease in the wake of the cold front to a Moderate risk on Sunday. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

MVFR ceilings will continue through most of the day today as winds slowly turn southwesterly to southerly this afternoon. By tonight, IFR to LIFR ceilings will move in around midnight as visbys steadily drop mainly along and south of I-10 as advection fog moves in. After midnight LIFR to VLIFR conditions will persist with dense fog spreading inland and low ceilings accompanying the fog. Winds will remain light out of the south throughout the overnight. Visbys and ceilings will gradually improve throughout the morning likely improving to MVFR by midday tomorrow. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow becomes southeasterly on Thursday and continues into Friday. Dense marine fog potential continues through the rest of the week. A dense fog advisory remains in effect today through Thursday afternoon for all bays, sounds, and adjacent gulf waters out to 20 nautical miles. A strong offshore flow develops Saturday night in the wake of a cold front, then diminishes on Monday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for that period for most of the marine waters. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 61 75 63 77 / 0 10 20 50 Pensacola 63 74 64 75 / 0 10 20 20 Destin 62 72 62 73 / 0 10 20 20 Evergreen 58 77 60 79 / 0 10 10 30 Waynesboro 58 78 62 77 / 0 10 40 70 Camden 57 77 61 77 / 0 20 10 50 Crestview 58 77 58 78 / 0 10 10 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday for ALZ056>060-261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630-633>636-655.

Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for GMZ630-633>636-655.

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ631-632-650.