textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 607 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through midweek. Surf heights up to 5 feet are expected through Monday, with rough surf expected.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through midweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 607 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Other than a few sprinkles, any showers across the area have ended. Surf heights for Monday will be reassessed this evening for the possibility of needing a High Surf Advisory for Monday. JGC/98

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Now through Monday night, a weakly organized shortwave trough moves slowly off. This system continues to be disorganized with upper dynamics well east of the good instability over Mississippi. A pool of cooler air over eastern portions of the forecast area is limiting any instability, much less surface based. Guidance is advertising instability increasing forecast area wide through the afternoon hours area-wide. Looking at the hodographs, the increase in surface based instability is expected to be limited and more confined to the sounding well above the surface. Over open Gulf waters, more surfaced based instability and strong to severe storms are possible. Over land, guidance shows stronger northerly winds in the mid levels moving over the forecast area. The soundings show the disorganization, with southeasterly flow in the lower levels, but northeast to northerly in the mid and upper levels. Not conducive to organized storms. Also, the sounding profile is pretty moist, with limited mid/upper level dry layers to enhance any downdrafts. Will still need to monitor. The biggest issue this afternoon into tonight is, with the overall slow movement of the storms, is the possibility of localized pools of cooler air setting up, providing localized focusing of precipitation formation. The risk is small, but definitely non-zero, especially near the cool pool over eastern portions of the forecast area. Looking at temperatures, after today, some rebounding in high temperatures is expected Monday, with upper 70s to low 80s expected. With no appreciable influx of a cooler airmass, low temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected, especially as an upper ridge moves east of the Mississippi River late Monday into Monday night.

Tuesday through Wednesday night, a deep upper level shortwave trough moves from over the Plains over the Mississippi River to the eastern Conus. There is indications of the trough becoming a bit negatively tilted as the base moves over the Lower Mississippi River to over the Southeast Wednesday into Wednesday night. Enhancement of any lower/mid level jets due to this is indicated to be well north of the forecast area, closer to the Tennessee River Valley. Advertised instability is modest, with SBCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range. Mid level height drops as the upper trough is also modest over the northern Gulf coast Wednesday into Wednesday night. All in all, the best combination of ingredients is advertised being well north of the forecast area. There has been, and continues to be, inconsistencies in path and timing of the upper trough, though, as the upper trough pushes east again the upper ridge that has moved over the eastern Conus. Will continue to monitor.

A cold front of inconsistent timing and strength is expected to cross the forecast area late Wednesday through Wednesday night. Temperatures above seasonal norms are expected ahead of front passage, dropping to below seasonal norms behind.

Taking a look at coastal areas, a High Risk of rip currents is maintained Tuesday, before decreasing to Moderate Wednesday into Thursday as east to southeast flow decreases and tidal cycle heads towards a neap tide. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Predominantly MVFR ceilings are present over much of the area this evening, with the exception of the Florida Panhandle and adjacent southern Alabama, where conditions have become VFR. Any VFR ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR and perhaps IFR in some spots later tonight into Monday morning, before lifting and becoming VFR by late afternoon. Generally easterly winds around 5-10 knots, a bit higher near the coast with gusts to around 20 knots, prevail through the period. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue into the coming week. Winds will shift to southeasterly Tuesday into Tuesday night as a system approaches the area from the west. Winds gradually decrease and turn onshore by mid-week after the systems passage. Seas will build to 5-7 feet today and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 79 66 80 / 10 0 0 20 Pensacola 66 79 68 79 / 20 0 0 10 Destin 66 80 68 80 / 20 0 0 10 Evergreen 59 78 61 79 / 10 0 0 10 Waynesboro 61 79 62 80 / 10 0 0 10 Camden 58 77 62 77 / 10 0 0 10 Crestview 60 81 62 82 / 20 10 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.