textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 555 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

- A moderate rip current risk will return Monday into the middle of next week as easterly winds increase over the Gulf.

- Well above average temperatures are expected all week, including Christmas Day.

- Dense fog will likely become a common occurrence each night starting Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

An upper-level trough will push into the western Atlantic late tonight and into Monday. Behind it, an anomalously strong upper ridge is expected to build in and cement itself across the CONUS through the remainder of the forecast period. At the surface, a weakening cold front is currently draped across central Alabama/Mississippi. This front is slowly pushing to the south and will potentially stall over our northern counties later today. Increased moisture out ahead of the front, along with weak forcing, is allowing for isolated to scattered showers to develop across the area. Expect this activity to continue through the day and into the evening hours. No thunderstorms are expected. High pressure over the Great Lakes region will move over the Appalachians tonight, allowing for a cold air damming pattern to set up for Monday. This will help to reorient the front from northwest to southeast, push it through our Alabama counties, and stall it somewhere over Mississippi. This will lead to a rather tight moisture gradient across the area tomorrow, with dew points ranging from the mid 30s over our easternmost counties to the low 60s over our westernmost counties. By Tuesday, the high will push into the Atlantic and its ridge axis will stretch across the southeast US. Although the high will keep us dry through the remainder of the week, warm and humid conditions are expected to advect in from the Gulf through Christmas and into the following weekend.

With the proximity of the front, highs today will range from the low to mid 60s north to the low 70s south. Highs tomorrow will generally be in the mid to upper 60s areawide. For the remainder of the week, highs will top out in the mid 70s (low 70s along the immediate coast). Except for Monday night, where lows will range from the mid 40s to the low 50s, lows throughout the period will generally remain in the 50s areawide. Climatologically speaking, these temperatures are roughly 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year. After a low risk of rip currents today, the risk increases to Moderate on Monday through midweek. Lastly, with increasing temps and humidity levels, in addition to light onshore flow and ridging aloft, the environment looks primed for dense fog to become a common occurrence each night starting Tuesday night. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Very low clouds and patchy fog inland areas behind a weak cold front sagging southward toward the coast will bring LIFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities to the most of the TAF sites from mid evening through the overnight hours. A line of light showers along the weak cold front will continue to slowly push south toward the coast, so added VCSH to most of the TAF sites as well. VFR visibilities and mostly MVFR ceilings will resume by mid morning Monday. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

A light southeasterly flow will prevail throughout the day today. Winds tonight turn more easterly and increase to moderate to occasionally strong through Monday. Exercise caution headlines are in place for our local Gulf waters for tonight and into Monday. A light easterly to southeasterly flow follows for Tuesday through Thursday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 56 69 51 / 40 40 10 0 Pensacola 72 57 68 55 / 10 20 0 0 Destin 69 54 68 55 / 10 10 0 0 Evergreen 71 50 68 46 / 40 30 0 0 Waynesboro 69 54 67 48 / 50 40 10 0 Camden 64 51 65 46 / 50 20 0 0 Crestview 72 49 69 46 / 10 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.