textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- A HIGH risk of rip currents will persist through at least Saturday for all area beaches.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms each day this week with a more substantial chance for rain late in the weekend.

- Increasing winds and seas may become hazardous to small craft Sunday night into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A rather soupy week is on tap with several rounds of rain and plenty of moisture to go around lingers through the weekend. Rather strong high pressure over the central Atlantic will gradually retrograde westward through the week as several shortwave troughs move across the Central US. Moisture will continue to surge northward as dewpoints hover in the 60s into the weekend. Rain chances will be best this afternoon as the first of several shortwaves will pass to our west. We should be just enough on the edge of the ridge with enough lift to support widely scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly west of I-65 today. Nothing too serious but enough for some spots to pickup a quick splash of rain. Unfortunately, with our current drought conditions this rain will likely only be enough to help sprout a few weeds.

By Thursday the upper ridge will nose in from the east allowing for a dry Thursday and Friday as subsidence from the ridge should squash most showers. Cannot rule out a sprinkle or very isolated shower but overall the area should remain dry. Eventually by the weekend, the parade of upper troughs will be able to break down the high and push it back east allowing for a more significant rain chance to arrive by Sunday. A rather potent shortwave will progress across the Great Lakes driving a "cold" front into the deep south. Given the plentiful moisture in place, showers and storms will likely accompany the front as it progresses through our area on Sunday. Unfortunately, we are in the time of the year where fronts get hung up and weaken as they approach thus rain chances look to become drawn out on Sunday. The good news is that a good chunk of the area should see some help in the aforementioned drought conditions. By Sunday night, the front should push offshore giving way to a significantly drier and cooler week next week. Heck we might even see lows in the 40s as early spring makes one last ditch effort before summer kicks in.

Some patchy fog will be possible over the next couple of morning mainly along and east of I-65 where the influences of the upper ridge and moisture overlap the best. While we do not expect any dense fog at this time, there are enough signals to at least support some patchy fog reducing visibilities to around 1 mile or less in some spots. As always continue to use caution when driving with fog.

Beach Hazards... A HIGH risk of rip currents will likely continue through the weekend as a moderate onshore flow should persist. While the winds will not be strong, there should be enough of a fetch and increasingly strong tides falling during the afternoons to result in likely hazardous swimming conditions and rip currents. Be sure to continue to swim near lifeguards. BB-8

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Generally MVFR to VFR flight category prevails across the area this afternoon. West of the I-65 corridor, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed and are expected to continue moving north through the afternoon. Temporary reductions in ceiling and visibility can be expected underneath any of the heavier showers or storms. Storms dissipate after sunset with most areas seeing VFR flight category. Late evening into the overnight patches of fog and low stratus may develop potentially reducing ceilings and visibilities to or below IFR flight category. Confidence is low at this time on the coverage and exact locations for where fog and low stratus develops. Winds will generally remain out of the southeast at around 10 knots this afternoon, occasionally gusting to 15 to 20 knots. Winds relax tonight below 5 knots, increasing again after daybreak Thursday to 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly flow is expected to prevail through Saturday. Winds switch to the northwest on Sunday as a cold front moves through, with a moderate to strong offshore flow following for Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for Sunday night into early Monday afternoon, possibly longer. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 63 82 64 / 50 0 0 0 Pensacola 78 65 78 65 / 20 0 0 0 Destin 76 64 77 65 / 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 84 59 85 59 / 20 10 0 0 Waynesboro 82 61 85 62 / 60 10 10 0 Camden 83 60 85 60 / 40 10 10 0 Crestview 83 59 85 59 / 20 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.