textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- HIGH rip current risk continues today through Sunday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Patchy to areas of dense fog is possible overnight into the pre-dawn hours over the next several nights.

- Temperatures remain well above normal for the next 7 days. High temperatures will be near record territory, but will likely stay just below the records this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Scattered showers and storms remain possible this afternoon with a better chance for showers and storms west of the I-65 corridor Saturday afternoon into evening. A line of storms will likely approach the area from the northwest Saturday evening, slowly sagging its way southward through the forecast area. Shear continues to look fairly weak around 20 to 25 knots, likely keeping any risk for severe weather very low. If there were a stronger storm or two, they'd be capable of producing gusty winds. The evolution of this line will affect how Sunday evolves, with the remnant gust front acting as a surface boundary to focus storms Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Numerous storms will occur in the vicinity of this feature, and depending on boundary orientation there may be some propensity for storms to train over the same locations. This is hinted at by the latest HREF ensemble depicting 6 hour probability matched mean QPF values of upwards of 2 to 5 inches potentially occurring somewhere across southeast Mississippi into far southwestern Alabama prior to daybreak Sunday. Depending on where this sets up, it could pose some risk for flash flooding, particularly if it were further east over urban areas of Mobile County. For now it remains something to watch with future iterations of the forecast guidance to see if this continues to be a trend now that we are within the range of the CAM guidance.

Dense fog will remain problematic at least for tonight into Saturday morning. Similar atmospheric conditions exist tonight with even lighter winds just above the surface expected tonight. Given this, dense fog should materialize once again, first over the marine waters shortly after sunset, then over land as we get later into the evening and overnight hours. For now, will keep the dense fog advisory confined to areas along and east of the I-65 corridor excluding Butler/Crenshaw counties for now where the signal is weaker. This will go into effect from midnight tonight through 9am Saturday morning.

Beach hazards continue the next few days with a High risk of rip currents now in effect through late Sunday afternoon. Latest probabilistic guidance continues to advertise borderline Moderate/High risk categories for strong rip currents across area beaches through Sunday. Given this mornings beach reports supporting the High risk and the anticipation for similar conditions to persist through Sunday, the High risk has been extended through late Sunday afternoon.

We see upper ridging become more dominant across the area early next week with isolated to scattered showers and storms Monday giving way to dry weather anticipated for Tuesday. Beyond this, the evolution of an upper level low out of the south-central U.S. will drive our weather mid to late week. There will likely be a period of increased chances for storms Wednesday into Thursday, however timing on that will depend on how quickly that low moves into the forecast area. We will also have to watch out for some low end severe weather chances with that if it transits the area during the day as shear increases to around 40 knots and adequate instability is in place to go with the forcing associated with the low. MM/25

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions will persist for at least another 1-2 hours for much of the area. However, IFR to LIFR ceilings are quickly developing along the coastline and are already impacting coastal portions of northwest Florida. These ceilings will slide inland this evening with areas of dense fog developing generally along and east of I-65 by midnight. Conditions will gradually improve to MVFR and VFR by mid-morning on Saturday. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1229 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Patchy to areas of dense fog remains possible near the coastline for the next several nights. A Dense Fog Advisory will go into effect this evening for all bays, sounds, and adjacent marine waters out to 20 nautical miles, with visibility expected to improve by mid morning Saturday. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 67 81 65 / 30 0 20 40 Pensacola 76 66 77 66 / 20 0 10 20 Destin 74 64 74 65 / 10 0 0 10 Evergreen 84 62 85 62 / 30 0 20 30 Waynesboro 82 66 84 65 / 50 0 50 60 Camden 82 64 83 63 / 40 0 40 50 Crestview 83 61 83 62 / 20 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Sunday for ALZ056-059-060-262>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Sunday for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>636-650- 655.