textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 - Cold temperatures are expected over the next 7 days. Sub- freezing temperatures are forecast across much of the area, especially tonight, Thursday night, and over the weekend.

- Strong northerly winds will occur over the marine area Wednesday night and Thursday, creating hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A broad upper trough over the eastern half of the U.S. will become highly amplified midweek as a 150 knot upper level jet dives south- southeast from south central Canada over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The base of this trough will reach as far south as the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night. A surface low pressure area across south central Canada tonight will move easterly to southwest Canada by midweek, sending an associated strong cold front through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. This front will continue to move rapidly toward our region on Wednesday and sweep through our area from late Wednesday afternoon through mid-evening. Isolated light showers are possible late Tuesday night as the upper trough approaches our region and deepens. Isolated light showers are also possible over far interior southwest Alabama Wednesday afternoon and east of the Alabama River Wednesday evening ahead of the cold front. The aforementioned upper trough will then lift northeastward Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, with an upper zonal flow returning over our area on Friday.

The upper pattern then takes another interesting turn as winds aloft shift west-southwesterly Friday night ahead of another impressive upper trough developing over the eastern half of the U.S. with a 150 knot upper jet diving south over the western High Plains and a 140 knot upper jet extending up along the eastern Seaboard. This trough is also expected to become highly amplified by noon Sunday. This time around, the surface low pressure area will be slightly further south and move across the northern Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday, again sending an associated strong cold front through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon through noon Friday. A Clipper System will follow, diving southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. It is this Clipper that should eventually send a strong cold front through our area on Sunday morning according to the GFS, but the ECMWF holds off on a much weaker cold front until Monday morning. We are expecting mostly dry weather conditions through the upcoming weekend. I say mostly dry depending on the evolution of this second system, since there is the potential of a few flurries interior areas late Saturday night and Sunday morning which we will be monitoring.

High temperatures will be near normal Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 50s and lower 60s before we enter into the arctic airmass, with highs Thursday only reaching the lower to middle 40s inland, with upper 40s along the coast. Lows Thursday night should fall into the 20s. These high and low temperatures are about 12 to 17 degrees below normal. At this time, apparent temperatures Friday morning in the middle to to upper 20s are expected to remain just above cold weather advisory criteria.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through Wednesday afternoon, briefly becoming MODERATE Wednesday night going into Thursday. A LOW risk of rip currents will follow through the remainder of the week. /22

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, along with light winds. /96

MARINE

Issued at 142 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Light to occasional moderate northeasterly to northerly flow will decrease going into Tuesday. A light offshore flow Tuesday afternoon will then shift westerly Tuesday night. This westerly flow will increase on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, followed by a moderate to strong offshore flow Wednesday night through Thursday morning in the wake of the front. Mariners operating small craft on the Gulf Wednesday afternoon should exercise caution. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required Wednesday night through Thursday as a strong cold front passes through the region. This offshore flow will gradually decrease Thursday afternoon through the overnight hours, becoming a light onshore flow on Friday. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 32 59 41 62 / 0 0 20 10 Pensacola 36 58 45 61 / 0 0 20 10 Destin 40 59 47 61 / 0 0 20 10 Evergreen 29 60 38 61 / 0 0 20 10 Waynesboro 29 58 39 60 / 0 0 20 10 Camden 28 57 39 58 / 0 0 20 20 Crestview 28 61 37 61 / 0 0 20 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.