textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Dense fog reducing visibility to less than a quarter mile at times resulting in hazardous travel conditions is expected to continue through this morning generally along and east of the I-65 corridor.

- A strong to severe storm can't be ruled out this afternoon in southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama with a very low threat for a damaging wind gust or tornado. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any storms.

- A Moderate rip current risk exists through Saturday for local beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Patchy to areas of dense fog will remain the primary hazard through mid morning today mainly near and east of the I-65 corridor. Dense fog has already settled into coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle the past hour. Latest night-time microphysics satellite imagery shows this area of dense fog expanding inland, most recently spreading into portions of Escambia and Covington counties in Alabama. Expect this to continue spreading inland into the overnight hours into Conecuh County. How far north fog gets is uncertain given upper cirrus preventing sufficient radiational cooling to allow for boundary layer decoupling and dense fog formation. Despite this, at least patchy fog, locally dense, can be expected for areas outside of the current dense fog advisory through 9 AM CST. Trends will be monitored through the night to see if any areal extensions are necessary for the dense fog advisory.

As we head into the day Friday, dense fog lifts and warm advection continues across the region. Weak upper level speed divergence owing to a 40 to 50 knot upper jet transiting the area will allow for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of the I-65 corridor. Greatest coverage will be focused in interior southeast Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama. A subtle threat for strong to severe storms will also exist where a mini spinny or two will be in a marginally favorable environment to produce a damaging wind gust or tornado. Ample instability in the lowest few kilometers upwards of 100 to 150 j/kg paired with mixed layer instability around 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg will provide for sufficient energy for thunderstorms. Curved, elongated hodographs with modest curvature in the lowest kilometer will allow for low level SRH values in the 100 to 150 m2/s2 range to develop. 30 to 40 knots of shear and around 20 to 25 knots of low level storm relative inflow will promote the potential for storm organization in the form of miniature supercells, also referred to as mini spinnies. The overall limiting factor will be the lack of better forcing, with overall anticipation for maybe a weakly rotating storm or two in interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama that generally struggle to deepen. If storms mature and become deeper, then I could see a marginal threat for a damaging wind gust or tornado out of one of the storms.

For the weekend, things dry out in the wake of this system with a cold front pushing across the area Saturday. Friday night into Saturday morning may feature another low end chance for patchy fog, locally dense for portions of the area. Best chances currently appear to be over far southeast Mississippi into far southwestern Alabama prior to the front moving through. As we head into next week, attention turns towards our next weather system approaching the area from the west Tuesday into Wednesday with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. A low end threat for strong to severe storms may exist given at least some overlap of instability and shear with forcing. Trends will be monitored as we move forward in time.

Overall temperatures remain above normal for highs until our next substantial cold front pushes across the area Wednesday into Thursday next week bringing high temperatures back to the upper 50's and lower 60's Thursday. Otherwise, 70's and prevail most afternoons with even some low 80's Saturday. Overnight lows also stay above normal most nights in the upper 50's and lower 60's, cooling to near normal Sunday night in the upper 40's and lower 50's. Wednesday night and Thursday night will likely fall back below normal to well below normal in the wake of the next significant cold front. The overall rip current risk increases to a Moderate today for area beaches, decreasing back to a Low risk Saturday night through Monday night, and then increasing back to a Moderate risk by Tuesday. MM/25

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A mix bag of conditions persists across the area with VFR conditions mainly north of the coastal counties and LIFR to VLIFR visbys and cigs along the I-10 corridor. Areas of dense fog and low ceilings have developed across the Florida Panhandle and is expected to spread inland tonight likely leading to VLIFR to LIFR conditions for most of the area. The only areas where confidence is lower is across southeastern Mississippi where high clouds may limit fog development. Fog should subside a little quicker than the last couple of days and VFR conditions will return by midday. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out by the afternoon across southeastern Mississippi leading to temporary reductions in visbys and cigs within the vicinity of the stronger storms. Winds will remain light out of the south. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Patchy, locally dense fog remains possible through this morning for portions of northern Mobile Bay. A general southerly flow will persist through tonight ahead of a front. Winds gradually turn northerly by Sunday morning for a brief period behind the front. Winds turn southerly by Monday, gradually strengthening Monday night into Tuesday to near exercise caution levels. A strong cold front will push across the marine waters Wednesday night into Thursday bringing the potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions to much of the marine zones late Wednesday night into early Thursday. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 62 79 64 / 0 0 40 10 Pensacola 75 65 77 68 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 75 65 76 68 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 83 56 81 63 / 0 0 20 20 Waynesboro 80 59 79 62 / 0 20 60 20 Camden 80 56 78 62 / 0 0 50 30 Crestview 81 56 79 63 / 0 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for ALZ056-059-060- 261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for FLZ201>203-205.

MS...None. GM...None.