textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 - There is the potential for a few severe storms with localized strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall through this afternoon mainly west of I-65.

- Summertime heat returns over the weekend into early next week. Heat advisories possible over portions of the area in the coming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Through Sunday...An upper level high centered over Texas shifts east and builds north over the Mississippi River Valley, shifting an upper trough over eastern portions of the Southeast further east. A weak surface boundary that had moved over forecast area washes out, with more organized onshore flow over the forecast area and nearby as a surface ridge builds west over the Gulf. Into the weekend, the eastward advancing upper ridge will actually cause moisture levels over the forecast area to drop a bit, with mid/upper level flow becoming more northwesterly, and mid/upper level subsidence increasing. With that, rain chances decrease into the weekend (area wide scattered to numerous this afternoon to mainly southeast of I- 65 Friday), with temperatures increasing. A dry weekend is in store for the current short term. For today and Friday, instability is expected to be high enough (MLCapes rising into the 1500-2500J/kg range) each day for strong storms. With wind shear weak at best, organized storms are not expected, with most damage coming from outflow driven pulse type storms.

Looking at temperatures, upper 80s to around 90 this afternoon rise to around 90 to mid 90s for Sunday. Heat indices quickly rise back into the 100-106 degree range (locally higher) over most of the forecast area for this weekend. Looking at low temperatures, seasonal upper 60s to low 70s tonight (mid/upper 70s along the Gulf warmed coast) quickly rise into the mid to upper 70s area wide by the weekend)

Monday through Thursday...The upper ridge continues to build over the Mississippi River/eastern Conus as it shifts north. With the shift north, moisture influx squashing subsidence decreases a bit, allowing more Gulf moisture to move inland over the Southeast. Rain chances in the extended increase back to around seasonal norms by mid week. Even with the decrease in the subsidence, temperatures remain a bit above seasonal norms. The increase in moisture levels will allow daytime Heat Indices rise into the 105-110 degree range over areas south of Highway 84 in the middle of the coming week, so will need to keep an eye on the possiblity of Head Advisories in the coming week.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, onshore flow remains modest at best with the shifting upper pattern. Even with a large tidal range, the lack of organized onshore swell will keep the Rip Risk low through the forecast. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and into tomorrow. An isolated shower or storm will be possible early tomorrow morning along the immediate coastline with scattered showers and storms returning during the afternoon mainly east of I-65. Confidence in storms impacting aviation is too low at this time to warrant impact at the TAF sites. Winds will be light out of the southwest throughout the forecast. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A weak stationary boundary along the coast at this time washes out, with a light onshore flow becoming more organized into the weekend. The coming week will see a light to at times moderate nighttime offshore/daytime onshore regime setting up. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 91 75 91 / 10 20 0 0 Pensacola 77 91 79 91 / 30 30 10 0 Destin 77 89 79 89 / 30 20 10 0 Evergreen 70 91 72 92 / 20 40 10 0 Waynesboro 71 93 74 93 / 20 10 0 0 Camden 70 90 73 90 / 10 20 0 0 Crestview 71 92 73 93 / 20 60 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.