textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Flooding and Severe Potential: Storms may produce heavy rainfall and/or strong to marginally severe storms across south-central Alabama and northwest Florida today and tomorrow. Damaging winds and additional flooding is possible.

- Heat Risk Concerns: Heat indices of 100-105 across much of the area through at least Tuesday.

- HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through the end of the work week for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

An upper ridge builds north over the Plains through Monday before a deep upper level shortwave trough dives south over the Eastern Seaboard, shifting the ridge west and less influential to the forecast area mid week. A cold front moves south over the forecast Tuesday in response, reaching the northern Gulf coast Tuesday night, then moving south over the Gulf Tuesday night. With the path and speed of the upper trough inconsistent in the guidance, how far south the front moves and where the coldest air pushes south is inconsistent in the guidance. What has been consistent is the coldest air pushes south east of the forecast area. Wednesday on, the upper trough moves off, with the upper ridge shifting over the Southeast by the end of the week, where it remains through the coming weekend.

There are a few items to deal with this package. The first is Monday. Some guidance (about a third to half) is advertising a very unstable airmass (MLCapes rising into the 3000-3500J/kg range) developing over the Southeast Monday, with MCS' developing north of the Southeast, then moving south across the region in the afternoon/evening. Timing and path remain inconsistent with these MCS', as with actual forming. As of this point, will have to keep an eye on things, especially if more consistency in the guidance leads SPC to alter the current Marginal Risk of severe storms (mainly for wind) over the northern half of the forecast area and points north for Monday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms precede the front Tuesday, with a dry period Wednesday and Thursday. Strong to marginally severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon, with a longer period of daytime heating creating a more unstable airmass. The shifting upper ridge will build a surface ridge over the northern Gulf coast, bringing Gulf moisture inland, especially west of the forecast area. Am expecting some of this moisture to bleed over western-most portions of the forecast area Friday before shifting further east over the weekend.

Heat Indices rising into the 100-105 degree range (a bit higher locally) remain a problem for the southern half of the forecast area through Tuesday until cooler/drier moves in. Currently, there are a few reports of local Heat Indices already rising above 105 this afternoon. 108 is the lowest reading for a Heat Advisory, so am not expecting any WWAs at this time, just An upper ridge builds north over the Plains through Monday before a deep upper level shortwave trough dives south over the Eastern Seaboard, shifting the ridge west and less influential to the forecast area mid week. A cold front moves south over the forecast Tuesday in response, reaching the northern Gulf coast Tuesday night, then moving south over the Gulf Tuesday night. With the path and speed of the upper trough inconsistent in the guidance, how far south the front moves and where the coldest air pushes south is inconsistent in the guidance. What has been consistent is the coldest air pushes south east of the forecast area. Wednesday on, the upper trough moves off, with the upper ridge shifting over the Southeast by the end of the week, where it remains through the coming weekend.

There are a few items to deal with this package. The first is Monday. Some guidance (about a third to half) is advertising a very unstable airmass (MLCapes rising into the 3000-3500J/kg range) developing over the Southeast Monday, with MCS' developing north of the Southeast, then moving south across the region in the afternoon/evening. Timing and path remain inconsistent with these MCS', as with actual forming. As of this point, will have to keep an eye on things, especially if more consistency in the guidance leads SPC to alter the current Marginal Risk of severe storms (mainly for wind) over the northern half of the forecast area and points north for Monday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms precede the front Tuesday, with a dry period Wednesday and Thursday. Strong to marginally severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon, with a longer period of daytime heating creating a more unstable airmass. The shifting upper ridge will build a surface ridge over the northern Gulf coast, bringing Gulf moisture inland, especially west of the forecast area. Am expecting some of this moisture to bleed over western-most portions of the forecast area Friday before shifting further east over the weekend.

Heat Indices rising into the 100-105 degree range (a bit higher locally) remain a problem for the southern half of the forecast area through Tuesday until cooler/drier moves in. Currently, there are a few reports of local Heat Indices already rising above 105 this afternoon. 108 is the lowest reading for a Heat Advisory, so am not expecting any WWAs at this time, just a caution for folks working and playing outside.

Taking a closer look at temperatures, high temperatures in the around 90 to 95 degree range area expected Monday, with bit of a drop Tuesday, especially north, as the front starts crossing the forecast area. Low to mid 80s are expected Wednesday and Thursday. from there, high temperatures slowly rise back into the mid/upper 80s for the coming weekend. Low temperatures in the 70s last into Monday night, before dropping into the low to mid 60s for Wednesday and Thursday nights behind the front. From there, low temperatures slowly moderate upwards to the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday night.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent onshore flow weakens though the weekend, decreasing swell on area beaches. Even with a large tidal range, there will be a slow decrease in the Rip Risk, with the current Moderate decreasing to a Low by Monday. More organized east to southeasterly flow mid week with bring a more organized influx of swell to area beaches, and a High rip risk expected for the latter half of the week. /16a caution for folks working and playing outside.

Taking a closer look at temperatures, high temperatures in the around 90 to 95 degree range area expected Monday, with bit of a drop Tuesday, especially north, as the front starts crossing the forecast area. Low to mid 80s are expected Wednesday and Thursday. from there, high temperatures slowly rise back into the mid/upper 80s for the coming weekend. Low temperatures in the 70s last into Monday night, before dropping into the low to mid 60s for Wednesday and Thursday nights behind the front. From there, low temperatures slowly moderate upwards to the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday night.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent onshore flow weakens though the weekend, decreasing swell on area beaches. Even with a large tidal range, there will be a slow decrease in the Rip Risk, with the current Moderate decreasing to a Low by Monday. More organized east to southeasterly flow mid week with bring a more organized influx of swell to area beaches, and a High rip risk expected for the latter half of the week. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions along with gusty, erratic winds are possible near storms developing near a coastal seabreeze this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere across the area. A cluster of storms is expected to move into south central Alabama by mid-evening and move southwestward into northwest Florida and coastal Alabama after midnight, again bringing MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds. Southerly to southwesterly winds around 10 knots, with gusts up to 18 knots possible along the coast, will become light westerly tonight. /22

MARINE

Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists through Monday. Winds turn northerly late Tuesday and easterly by the middle of the week. Small craft conditions are possible Wednesday through Friday in moderate to strong easterly to southeasterly flow. Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 93 73 92 / 20 50 20 70 Pensacola 77 91 76 90 / 20 40 20 60 Destin 76 88 75 88 / 30 30 20 40 Evergreen 72 92 72 90 / 50 30 20 60 Waynesboro 73 93 72 90 / 20 40 30 60 Camden 71 90 71 86 / 40 30 30 40 Crestview 72 94 72 92 / 50 40 30 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.