textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Hot and humid conditions return with heat indices in the 100 to 107 range today through this weekend.

- A MODERATE risk of rip currents continues today through early next week for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, becoming a HIGH risk by Tuesday.

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly early next week bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Heat and humidity will persist through the weekend with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values topping out in the 100-105 range both afternoons. Overnight lows will only fall into the upper 70s near the coast, providing little relief.

As the upper ridge begins to weaken and moisture increases, somewhat greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon, especially along the advancing sea breeze boundary and over the interior. Latest CAM guidance suggests lower overall coverage of showers and storms on Sunday, likely due to lack of forcing and a weak capping inversion.

Rain and thunderstorm chances begin to increase substantially on Monday as a deep tropical air mass settles into the area and ridging becomes suppressed to the southeast by a deepening large-scale trough. Storms appear most likely over the interior on Monday, eventually spreading to the coast by Tuesday as a cold front pushes south into the area and stalls. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate PWATs exceeding 2.25 inches across portions of the area Monday into Tuesday, surpassing the 99th percentile of climatology. Combined with boundary-parallel storm motions, training convection may develop and produce localized flash flooding. The location of the stalled boundary will ultimately determine where the heaviest rainfall occurs. The WPC has placed the northwestern portion of the forecast area under a slight risk of excessive rainfall on Monday, with nearly the entire area included in a slight risk for Tuesday. The heavy rain and flash flood potential will likely continue into Wednesday for portions of the area before forecast confidence decreases. Details regarding the heavy rain and flash flood threat will be refined as confidence increases. On the bright side, the rainfall and increased cloud cover will provide at least temporary relief from the heat with many spots likely remaining the 70s on Tuesday.

A MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue at all area beaches through early next week. Onshore flow is expected to strengthen by the middle of next week, resulting in a HIGH risk of rip currents by Wednesday. JGC/98

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

General VFR conditions expected over the forecast area with local drops to IFR due to fog. Am expecting these drops to be few and far between. Isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday will again bring local drops in conditions, mainly to low end MVFR. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A diurnal pattern of light westerly to northwesterly flow in the morning and southwesterly flow during the afternoon and evening is expected this weekend. A moderate southwest flow early next week should gradually veer to more southerly by midweek with an increasing onshore component. Rain and thunderstorm chances will also be on the increase next week. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near and around thunderstorms. 98/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 93 75 90 / 0 10 30 70 Pensacola 78 93 78 90 / 10 10 20 50 Destin 79 90 79 89 / 0 10 20 50 Evergreen 75 94 74 88 / 10 20 40 80 Waynesboro 75 94 73 85 / 10 20 70 90 Camden 75 92 73 83 / 10 20 70 90 Crestview 75 95 76 91 / 10 30 20 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.