textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning tonight and into Sunday.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for all area beaches.

- Moderate to strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A positively-tilted upper-level trough currently stretches from the Great Lakes region southwestward into the ArkLaTex. Over the next couple days, this trough will slowly push eastward with several embedded shortwaves rounding the base of this trough. At the surface, an associated cold front is located over northwestern Mississippi and will continue pushing southeastward throughout the day and into tonight. Moisture pooling out ahead of the front should allow for PWATs to increase to around 2.1-2.3 inches (generally around the 90th-95th percentile when comparing to climatology). This, along with forcing from the surface front and shortwave energy aloft, as well as strong daytime heating, should lead to the development of showers and storms along the front over portions of central MS and AL. As the front approaches and enters our northwestern counties this evening, the best forcing appears to pull away from the local area. This should lead to an overall weakening trend with storms as they enter our area. That being said, with plenty of instability in place, drier air aloft owing to DCAPEs above 1000 J/kg, along with shear values to around 25 knots, cannot rule out one or two multicellular clusters, capable of producing gusty to locally damaging winds over our northern counties this evening.

The front will continue sagging to the southeast overnight tonight, setting up somewhere along the coast or just offshore by the early to mid-morning hours. Meanwhile, the next embedded shortwave is expected to pass across the area sometime around, or a little before sunrise, allowing for another round of showers and storms to redevelop. As stated before, moisture pooling will result in plenty of deep moisture to be in place along and ahead of the front, allowing for storms to be efficient rainfall-producers. And with flow moving parallel to the slow-moving front, storms may attempt to train and impact the same areas. The biggest question will be with regards to the location of the front, as this will ultimately determine where the highest coverage/heaviest rainfall will occur. Right now the latest 24hr LPMMs from the HREF suggest that localized QPF maximums of around 4-6 inches should remain just offshore. However, if the front is a bit slower and does not manage to make it offshore, I can not rule out these values being realized over portions of our coastal counties, potentially leading to a localized flash flood threat late tonight into Sunday morning. We will monitor this potential closely.

The front should wash out by Sunday night/Monday and a drier airmass will begin filtering in after the passage of the upper trough axis. This will help to lower rain chances for the start of the week and possibly bring dew points into the 60s for a good portion of the area. If isolated to scattered showers and storms do manage to develop during the first half of the week, they will likely remain confined to the sea breeze boundary generally along and east of the I-65 corridor. Highs throughout the period will remain in the low to mid 90s, however, with the drier air filtering in, heat indices should remain below Heat Advisory criteria through much of the week. A High Risk of Rip Currents will be in place through Sunday night, lowering to a Moderate Risk for Monday. The rip current risk drops to a Low Risk for Tuesday and into midweek. /96

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms developing over eastern-most portions of the forecast area can bring local drops in conditions to low end MVFR. More convection developing late tonight closer to the coast and lasting into Sunday morning will again bring local drops to low/mid MVFR levels. Winds are expected to be generally westerly this afternoon though tonight, with a shift to northwesterly beginning late Sunday morning as a cold front begins to move over the forecast area. /16

MARINE

Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow is expected to develop tonight and linger through Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound from 7PM tonight through 7AM Sunday, and from 7PM tonight through 4PM Sunday for our local Gulf waters. Winds gradually weaken Sunday night, with a light to moderate southwesterly flow becoming prevalent for the early to middle part of next week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 91 71 92 / 50 40 20 10 Pensacola 79 89 73 91 / 60 80 40 10 Destin 80 87 75 89 / 60 90 50 10 Evergreen 73 91 71 91 / 40 40 20 20 Waynesboro 72 92 70 92 / 70 0 0 10 Camden 72 89 71 89 / 70 10 0 20 Crestview 75 89 73 91 / 60 70 40 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675.