textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected Friday through the weekend. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding.

- A High risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A rather wet period is in store for the area this weekend. A stubborn upper ridge over the southeastern states which extends along the northern Gulf coast causes a positively tilted upper trof over the southern/central Plains into northern Mexico to mostly shear out through Friday. This leaves a modest upper low near the New Mexico/Mexico border with a weak upper trof extending to near the mid Mississippi River valley. An upper trof amplifies over much of the eastern CONUS this weekend and absorbs the remnant weak upper trof, leading to the upper ridge breaking down and retreating into the central Gulf. This pattern will slowly bring a frontal boundary from the Plains/interior eastern states to extend from coastal Texas into northern Alabama by Friday afternoon. Interestingly, a system over the southwestern Gulf meanwhile becomes better developed Friday into Friday night and develops an inverted surface trof up along the Texas coast, intersecting with the frontal boundary. This combined surface trof/frontal boundary gradually shifts to become oriented from the northwestern Gulf to across the forecast area this weekend.

Deep layer moisture steadily increases over the forecast area through Saturday, with precipitable water values climbing to around 2.5 inches which persist into Sunday. As noted by the previous shift, these values are way above seasonal normals for this time of year. This pattern indicates a trend towards very high rain chances for the area, along with the potential for flooding concerns, possibly as early as Friday but especially this weekend as a frontal boundary becomes positioned over the area along with copious deep layer moisture. WPC has a marginal risk of flooding for nearly the entire area on Friday, then a slight risk of flooding is in place for essentially the western half of the area on Saturday, with a marginal risk elsewhere. A slight risk of flooding continues for the entire area for Sunday. Rainfall totals through Sunday look to range from 2-3 inches inland to 4-5 inches mainly across extreme southeast Mississippi, extreme southwest Alabama, and a portion of the western Florida panhandle. These rainfall amounts will see adjustments in the coming forecast updates, and localized amounts of 6-9 inches cannot be ruled out near the coast depending on how the convection sets up.

For Monday into Thursday, the eastern states upper trof moves off into the western Atlantic then another upper trof moves into the eastern states on Thursday. A frontal boundary will be oriented over the southern portion of the area Monday morning then slowly moves into the northern Gulf on Tuesday, and slowly continues further into the Gulf through Thursday. For Monday, have gone with likely pops along/east of I-65 with chance pops elsewhere, then rain chances slowly decrease through Thursday to chance pops east of I-65 with mostly slight chance pops elsewhere. A High Risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday, then a moderate risk follows for Monday. Will need to monitor for the potential for minor coastal flooding mainly over northern Mobile Bay during high tide late tonight and late Friday night when tidal heights of 1.5-1.6 feet are indicated, just shy of 1.7 feet when coastal flooding begins. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and into the evening today. More showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop during the predawn hours over the marine waters and move onshore through the morning and into Friday afternoon. These showers and storms are accompanied by stronger wind gusts and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within the strongest storms. Winds will remain generally easterly to southeasterly through tomorrow around 10-15 knots with periodic gusts up to 20 knots, especially closer to the coast. There is low confidence in MVFR ceilings developing over interior areas overnight. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow develops today and persists through the weekend. Winds relax on Sunday and turn northerly early next week in the wake of a cold front. Advisory level conditions are possible Tuesday through Thursday of next week as winds turn more easterly. Seas increase to 3-5 feet late this week into early this weekend with another bump to 4-7 feet possible in the middle of next week. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 86 72 83 / 30 80 50 80 Pensacola 76 85 75 83 / 50 70 70 90 Destin 75 84 75 84 / 40 70 70 90 Evergreen 67 88 68 84 / 10 70 50 80 Waynesboro 69 89 69 83 / 10 60 30 80 Camden 68 90 69 84 / 10 60 40 80 Crestview 69 86 69 83 / 10 80 50 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.