textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will bring beneficial rainfall to the area with 2 to 3 inches expected with the greatest totals most likely near the coast where localized amounts greater than 3 inches will be possible. - Strong northerly winds tonight into Sunday morning will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

- A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail will be possible along the immediate coast and across the marine areas tonight. Waterspouts will also be possible over the offshore waters of the Gulf.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Mid/upper level impulses will continue to traverse the region, with the strongest signal occurring late this afternoon through the overnight hours as a decaying southern shortwave moves over the area. Layer lifting and isentropic upglide will persist in the low levels as a frontal boundary just off the coast remains quasi-stationary through late evening. An inverted low-level trough across the western Gulf becomes elongated from the southwest Gulf to the Florida Panhandle by midnight. Widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms will occur tonight with additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts to 3 inches. The departures of the low level trough to our east will allow the rain to taper off Saturday morning and then reinforce the northerly wind flow as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest. Overall, we are expecting A much drier airmass moves into the area behind the reinforced northerly flow with dry conditions expected through the first half of next week followed by rain chances returning the second half of the week.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents through tonight is expected to briefly become MODERATE along the Florida beaches Saturday and Saturday night before settling back to a LOW risk on Sunday. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings will persist becoming IFR this afternoon and evening as widespread rain overspreads the area. Several rounds of rain will likely occur this afternoon and evening with pockets of IFR visbys occurring with the heaviest rain. Some thunder may occur especially early this evening into the overnight hours. Winds will increase overnight around midnight out of the north to around 15 to 20 knots gusting to 30 knots. IFR conditions will likely continue into the day tomorrow as rain subsides around sunrise and drier conditions move in. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Moderate northeasterly to easterly winds will become a strong offshore flow tonight through Saturday as an area of low pressure moves across the marine areas. This will result in increasing and hazard seas for all small craft tonight through Saturday night. Widespread showers and potentially a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over the marine waters, especially from 20nm to 60nm late tonight and Saturday. Winds and waves will be higher with any thunderstorms. Winds and seas then diminish late Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a light onshore flow returning Monday afternoon through the middle of next week. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 53 72 47 75 / 100 40 0 0 Pensacola 56 70 52 74 / 100 70 0 0 Destin 59 72 54 75 / 100 80 0 0 Evergreen 51 71 43 76 / 100 40 0 0 Waynesboro 50 70 44 74 / 100 20 0 0 Camden 50 69 44 71 / 100 40 0 0 Crestview 53 71 43 77 / 100 70 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CDT Saturday for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675.