textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 659 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Isolated strong thunderstorms are expected interior areas this afternoon with small hail possible.

- Strong marine winds will occur through tonight with the potential for occasional gusts to gale force resulting in hazardous boating conditions.

- High surf heights up to 4 to 6 feet will impact coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through this evening, with strong rip currents continuing through Monday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 659 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The line of showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms will exit east of our area around mid-morning. Another bout of likely to definite showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms, associated with the upper low pressure area moving over the southern Mississippi region, will enter into our interior areas of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama late this morning and spread mainly eastward through the afternoon. With temperatures at 500mb around -16C, some of the storms may produce small hail. A few showers and perhaps a storm or two could slip south toward the I-10 corridor by late afternoon, but no strong storms are expected. Lingering showers across our far eastern zones early this evening will then exit east of the area, followed by dry conditions through at least Tuesday night. Updates have been sent. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A well organized squall line is quickly moving east across Louisiana and southwest Mississippi as of midnight. This line is moving faster than any of the guidance indicated. Therefore, we now expect it to enter our southeast Mississippi counties by 2am, approach the I-65 corridor by 4am, and exit eastern parts of the area by no later than 8am. This line has had a history of producing damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes. As it continues east, shear will remain strong as a 50-60 kt low level jet moves across the area, helping to yield 0-1km bulk shear of 35-45 kt and 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. Instability will be the main question mark due to the fast nature of the return flow ahead of the squall line. Latest hi-res guidance indicates MLCAPES should rise to 500-750 J/kg, with the highest values located closer to the coast. In addition, 0-3km CAPE is forecast to be 100-150 J/kg along the coastal zones, which is favorable for severe weather. These high shear/low CAPE events are always tricky though as there are always question marks on if the shear will be too strong given the overall modest instability. However, given the forcing of the potent upper trough combined with the presence of at least some low level instability, there should continue to be a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an embedded tornado along the squall line. A Tornado Watch is in effect for all but the south central Alabama counties through 5am. We may have to locally extend this an hour or two, but will make that decision later as we see how the line progresses through our area.

We will see a lull in storm coverage in the wake of the early morning line. However, additional scattered showers and storms are likely to develop midday into this afternoon, especially over inland zones, as the upper level shortwave and attendant surface low move across central Alabama. Cannot rule out some small hail with these storms given the colder temps aloft associated with the upper trough.

Winds will quickly increase ahead of the line of storms early this morning, gusting to 30-35 mph at times. These strong gusts will likely persist through much of the day in the wake of the early morning storms given the strong surface low moving across Alabama this afternoon.

After we get past this storm system, the rest of the week looks fairly tranquil as upper level ridging builds across the region. This will result in above normal temps through the week with little to no chance of rain. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A weakly organized band of showers with a thunderstorm or two is moving across the forecast area, bringing local drops in conditions from MVFR to IFR. There is still stronger winds along and near the coast, warranting a Wind Shear addon for area TAF sites until 13-14z this morning, and is expected to be east of the area by 16z. General VFR conditions are expected thereafter, with northerly winds of 10-15 knots through the rest of the forecast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1223 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Onshore flow will strengthen early this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will remain strong out of the southwest through most of the day in the wake of the front. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible. Strong to severe wind gusts are possible in thunderstorms early this morning. A moderate to strong offshore flow becomes established by tonight, gradually waning to a light to moderate offshore flow by Monday afternoon. Light onshore flow returns for Tuesday through midweek. 34/JFB

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 53 71 52 / 30 10 0 0 Pensacola 71 55 69 54 / 60 10 0 0 Destin 70 54 69 54 / 70 20 0 0 Evergreen 73 49 72 46 / 60 10 0 0 Waynesboro 69 50 70 48 / 70 10 0 0 Camden 69 50 68 48 / 90 10 0 0 Crestview 74 51 72 47 / 80 20 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory until midnight CST tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.