textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Increasing concern for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding over the next several days.

- HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through at least Thursday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Overall forecast remains on track. Things are much quieter right now compared to this time yesterday, but that will only be temporary as the expectation remains for numerous showers and storms to develop again by mid to late morning. A band of light showers associated with a weak confluence band currently exists across southeast Mississippi, and should continue to persist as light showers over the next couple hours. Latest VAD reveals a favorable profile for mini spinnies, however without any appreciable forcing and little instability the expectation is for things to stay tame through daybreak.

Latest high resolution guidance and ensemble guidance is starting to hone in on a corridor of more substantial rainfall existing across south central Alabama into the Florida Panhandle today where the potential exists for over 6 inches of rainfall. If storms sit and train over the same areas, local totals could be much higher, potentially exceeding 10 inches. Certainly something to monitor as we continue through the rest of today. A flood watch remains in effect until midnight tonight for the entire forecast area. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Wet is the best way to describe the forecast over the next few days. Waterlogged communities won't get much of a break in this pattern as we anticipate multiple round of showers and storms to produce very heavy rainfall leading to more flooding concerns.

Right on time, as of 05z, isolated showers have already begun to develop across southeast Mississippi, streaming inland from the coast. This trend will persist throughout the overnight hours with showers developing and moving inland from the coastline. The bulk of the activity should hold off until daybreak (roughly 10-12z) before convection really begins to flare up along the coastline. The latest thinking is that the storms will streaming into the Florida panhandle first in the morning before spreading across the rest of the area throughout the late morning and afternoon hours. Similar to the past few days, a few strong to severe storms are possible with gusty downburst winds being the predominant threat (although a brief tornado is possible today if it can take advantage of the environment). That said, flooding is the biggest threat today...and for the next few days. The recent HREF localized probability-matched mean (LPMM) for QPF shows another few bullseyes of 4-7 inches of rain across portions of the region yet again today, which is really starting to become concerning given how much rainfall has fallen over the past few days.

A wet pattern will persist through the week as the area remains on the western periphery of a ridge aloft parked over the western Atlantic. Deep onshore flow prevails with PWATs surging to over 2.0 inches at times. Multiple subtle shortwaves will ride through the flow aloft, providing ample ascent for the development of showers and storms throughout the week. We anticipate multiple rounds of storms producing very heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding this week. The potential for flooding will be highly dependent on the rainfall rates along with the movement of the storms (slower storms or storms that repeatedly move over the same locations will be problematic). Storms will easily be capable of producing 1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time.

Beach Forecast - Given the consistent onshore flow signal over the coming days, the risk for rip currents will be HIGH through at least Thursday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Offshore storms will only act to amplify the surf and rip currents each day. 07/mb

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MVFR to IFR flight category generally persists here at daybreak across the region. Ceilings should lift in the coming hours to MVFR, remaining that way through tonight. Numerous showers and storms will develop by late morning into the afternoon and evening hours, likely reducing flight category at times, particularly under any heavier storms. Winds remain out of the south at 5 to 10 knots, gusting 15 to 20 knots nearer the coast. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist throughout the week. Seas will generally be 3 to 4 feet through midweek. Significant reductions in visibility due to periods of heavy rain and locally higher winds will occur near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 72 86 72 / 90 50 60 30 Pensacola 82 75 84 75 / 90 40 40 30 Destin 83 75 84 75 / 80 50 60 30 Evergreen 81 70 86 70 / 90 50 80 20 Waynesboro 83 71 85 70 / 90 30 80 50 Camden 80 70 84 69 / 100 40 80 30 Crestview 81 70 87 71 / 90 50 70 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch through this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.