textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026 - Strong northerly winds will occur over the marine area through Monday morning and create hazardous conditions for small craft.

- Sub-freezing temperatures will occur Sunday night and Monday night for most interior areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Much cooler and drier air is beginning to filter in from the north as high pressure builds in behind the cold front that passed through the area yesterday. Tight pressure gradient between this high and the front will give way to a rather breezy day today, with wind gusts potentially as high as 25-30 mph in spots. Highs will remain in the 50s today. The high should settle in by tonight, helping to reduce winds. This will lead to efficient radiational cooling, and lows should drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across the area (mid 30s along the immediate coast). That being said, although winds will be much lower tonight than they are this morning, they may remain elevated enough to result in a wind chill factor, especially over coastal counties. Although at this time, I anticipate wind chills to generally remain above our Cold Weather Advisory criteria (apparent temps less than 25 over coastal counties), cannot rule out a few localized spots briefly seeing wind chills drop into the 22-25 degree range. If confidence increases, or if temps trend lower/winds trend higher, a Cold Weather Advisory may become necessary for our coastal counties. At this time, not anticipating an advisory for interior counties due to their lower criteria of 20 degrees or lower.

As we go through the remainder of the period, we will likely see two more reinforcing cold fronts sweep through the area as longwave troughing amplifies over the eastern US. The first will likely arrive Wednesday. Ensemble guidance suggests that moisture return should be rather paltry ahead of this front, which should help in keeping PoPs rather limited. Anything that does manage to develop would likely be a cold rain given the cold airmass still in place. We dry out and cool off once again for late week. The next front should arrive sometime next weekend, although guidance at this time is rather inconsistent with regards to timing and if moisture is able to return out ahead of the front. The rip current risk should remain low throughout the week, although there is some indication from RCMOS guidance that we could see a brief bump to moderate over our easternmost Florida beaches for Wednesday night. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with gusty northwest winds. /13

MARINE

Issued at 103 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Strong offshore flow will continue through Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for all marine zones. Occasional gusts to near gale force cannot be ruled out over the local Gulf waters. Winds gradually decrease on Monday, becoming light by Tuesday. Winds briefly turn westerly on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Moderate to strong offshore winds return Wednesday night into Thursday in the wake of the front. Another Small Craft Advisory may become warranted for midweek. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 59 30 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 58 35 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 60 37 54 38 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 56 29 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 55 29 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 53 28 49 28 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 59 29 54 27 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.