textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1206 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Periods of heavy rain are expected today through Saturday with the potential of localized flooding. - Sustained winds around 20 knots gusting to 25 to 30 knots will be possible through today across the offshore Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until Midnight.

- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents tonight through Friday night for the beaches of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

We are not going to complain about the much needed rain, but it certainly is rather raw outside with a steady rain and temperatures struggling to break out of the 50s. This will likely be the case through most of the weekend as broad southwesterly flow remains across the area and a parade of shortwave troughs march through the eastern US. A stalled boundary will remain just offshore through the next 48 to 72 hours allowing for a focus of continued moderate to heavy rainfall across the entire area through Sunday. Rain will likely come in waves as each passing shortwave provides an influx of moisture and increased isentropic ascent over the boundary leading to an overrunning stratiform rain. A good portion of the area has already seen 1 to 3 inches of rain from this first band of rainfall this morning. Looking at NBM probabilities, areas mainly south and east of I-65 have about a 30 to 50 percent chance of adding an additional 2+ inches through Sunday to the rainfall total. This would give event total rainfalls of around 3 to 5 inches mainly across South-Central Alabama and the northwestern Florida Panhandle. While this is a decent amount of rainfall, the steady and slow rates should not result in any major flooding concerns across the area and most of the rain will be rather beneficial to our ongoing drought conditions. The only locations that could see some minor nuisance flooding would be the immediate coastal communities and poor drainage metro areas of Mobile and Pensacola and even then it will mostly be some ponding on roadways.

By Sunday afternoon into the evening, the final shortwave should be enough to push enough dry air into the area to give us a bit of a respite from the dreary cold rain. Southwesterly flow aloft will become more westerly by midweek as another weak shortwave moves through mid-week. Expect a drier and warmer pattern by the end of the week. Without any deep northwesterly flow, temperatures will basically hover in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows Wednesday through Friday.

BB-8

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

An area of isentropic upglide west of the Tombigbee/Mobile Bay will gradually spread east through the afternoon, with low end MVFR or lower conditions west of the river spreading east with. Drops in conditions to LIFR are possible in heavier rain embedded in the widespread rains. Operations are likely to be impacted area-wide. Northeasterly winds of 5 to 10 knots expected through the forecast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Moderate to strong northeast to east winds this morning will increase to strong this afternoon as an inverted surface trough advances from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued through tonight. A moderate onshore flow is likely over the Gulf tonight as a surface low and warm front lift north toward the Florida Panhandle, while winds remain northeasterly to easterly over the bays and sounds. Winds will then shift northerly on Friday in the wake of the departing low pressure area.

BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 46 55 47 57 / 80 70 70 90 Pensacola 51 60 52 59 / 80 80 80 90 Destin 52 64 52 61 / 80 80 70 90 Evergreen 43 56 44 57 / 90 70 70 80 Waynesboro 40 51 41 55 / 90 40 60 60 Camden 40 52 41 53 / 90 50 60 70 Crestview 45 60 47 57 / 80 80 80 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ650-655- 670-675.