textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Patchy frost development is possible over our northern zones during the early morning hours of Sunday and Monday.

- Dry conditions prevail for the start of the week, along with warming temperatures. This could lead to an increased risk for fire weather concerns on Monday and Tuesday. - A strong cold front is expected to pass through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will also strengthen behind the front, along with building seas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Cool, dry air continues to filter into the local area as high pressure maintains its hold over the central US. Temperatures through the remainder of the night, as well as Sunday night, should bottom out in the mid to upper 30s over our northern counties, and the low to mid 40s over our southern counties. Although we are not anticipating temperatures dropping below freezing, temperatures in the 30s, nearly saturated boundary-layer conditions, clear skies, and light winds should help to support the development of frost over the northern half of our local area both nights. A Frost Advisory is in effect until 7AM Sunday morning generally for areas along and north of Highway 84. Another Frost Advisory may be needed for Sunday night for similar areas. Highs on Sunday will be in the low 70s.

Temperatures slowly start to moderate through midweek as high pressure weakens and pushes directly overhead. Not anticipating any rain through Tuesday due to subsidence from the high overhead and very limited moisture. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s by Tuesday and lows should range from the low 40s north to the mid 50s along the coast by Tuesday night. One thing to note is that although temperatures are increasing, dew points should remain rather low for both Monday and Tuesday. This would lead to low RH values (~25-30% range). Although winds are expected to remain well below Red Flag criteria, these low RH values, along with dry antecedent conditions, may help to increase the risk for fire weather concerns.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a southern stream shortwave is expected to quickly push eastward. With upper-level flow turning more southwesterly ahead of this shortwave, some modest moisture return is anticipated prior to the shortwave's passage (PWATs increasing to around 1.0-1.2 inches). This may help to spark a few showers across the area, but overall, coverage should remain rather limited. The next big story will come towards the end of the week as a longwave trough quickly dives southeastward from Canada, digging as far south as the northern Gulf. A strong cold front looks to accompany this trough, pushing through the area sometime Thursday afternoon/evening. Long-range guidance continues to suggest that temperatures behind this front may drop to well below average by the upcoming weekend, bringing the potential for the first freeze of the season over northern portions of the area. Something we will continue to watch over the coming days.

The rip current risk remains low through Wednesday, possibly increasing to a Moderate Risk by Thursday. /96

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with generally northerly winds around 5-10 knots. However, a weak sea breeze may cause variations in wind direction along the immediate coast during the afternoon. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

High pressure will continue to settle into the region today revealing light winds and wave/seas. Winds increase tonight into Monday morning reaching 8-10kts for protected waters, to 10-13kts for outer waters but will be a short-lived window as winds relax going into the daytime hours on Monday. Next notable window of impacts will be expected Thursday morning as a front sweeps across the region, introducing increasing northwesterly/offshore winds. At this time, winds will likely reach Small Craft Advisory during the daytime hours on Thursday, with sustained winds 18-28kts for Gulf waters and higher gusts near 30 knots. Waves/seas respond reaching 2- 3ft for protected waters, 3-4ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 4-7 ft for outer Gulf zones. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next weekend. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 52 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 73 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 72 40 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 71 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 70 38 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 74 41 77 42 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>058.

FL...None. MS...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MSZ067.

GM...None.