textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Areas of Dense Fog can be expected early this morning along portions of the FL Panhandle and far southern AL through daybreak.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through early next week. A few storms may produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall, with isolated instances of flash flooding possible.

- Peak heat index values of around 100-107 are expected through at least Monday, with values of 108-110 possible Sunday and Monday. Heat Advisories may be needed.

UPDATE

Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Performed a very early morning forecast update this morning to assess increasing risk for areas of dense fog forming along the I-10 corridor across the FL Panhandle. Recent REFS/HREF trends continue to pinpoint sfc radiation fog development, expanding east through daybreak. Greatest probabilities for now are along the AL/FL border, but casted a wider net for counties surrounding given recent guidance and now, obs are catching up showing development has begun in areas. Winds could remain elevated enough to prevent fog issues right along the coast, but overall even areas outside/around the Dense Fog Advisory, could still see patchy 1-3sm fog, and isolated areas of dense. Threat should shortly after sunrise. Will closely monitor guidance and obs/trends through early this morning if any expansions are required, if so will update. KLG

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The tropical wave that brought heavy downpours to the area yesterday is becoming increasingly strung out along the northern Gulf coast this morning as it leaves behind an east-west zone of enhanced moisture. The ridge to the north will keep an easterly mid-level flow in place across the area, with a weak low-level flow allowing the sea breeze to push well inland this afternoon. Remnant moisture will lead to another round of showers and storms today, though not quite as widespread as yesterday, with 40-60% PoPs areawide.

One area of focus for convection could be mid-late morning to the north of Highway 84 in Alabama along a zone of elevated convergence. With PWATs around 2.4 inches and the potential for training storms, a localized flash flood threat may develop. The second area would be near the coast and offshore during the morning hours, shifting inland with the sea breeze through the afternoon. PWATs of around 2.1-2.3 inches over these areas will continue to support heavy downpours with any storms. Waterspouts will also remain possible over the marine waters through the morning hours.

Sunday and Monday could be a bit more interesting in terms of convective potential. The mid-level ridge to the north will become suppressed westward over the Southern Plains as shortwaves swing down the western edge of an amplifying upper trough along the eastern seaboard. This pattern places the area within a general northerly steering flow with notable upper diffluence over the Southeast. In the low levels, weak convergence and moisture pooling ahead of a backdoor cold front pushing south from the Tennessee Valley should support areas of robust thunderstorm development over portions of the Southeast. While there is considerable uncertainty regarding where storms will develop each day, the most likely focus on Sunday appears to be north and east of the area, perhaps pushing into our interior areas late in the day (40-50% PoPs). A greater focus looks to develop across our coastal counties on Monday afternoon (60-70% PoPs) as the backdoor front potentially reaches our northern counties. Guidance points to a very unstable environment both days with 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and perhaps some deep-layer wind shear increasing to around 20 knots, which may support a few strong to severe storms. Drier air filtering in aloft could also enhance microburst potential. Trends will be monitored for a marginal severe storm potential.

By Tuesday, the upper ridge over the Plains builds back to the east, shifting the steering flow back to easterly as the backdoor front stalls and washes out over the region. This pattern will keep at least the southern half of the area in fairly deep moisture through midweek, maintaining scattered to numerous showers and storms (40- 60% PoPs) each afternoon, especially along the sea breeze. If the front manages to push farther south, then a greater reduction in rain chances may be needed for Tuesday and beyond.

Above normal temperatures are expected through the period, with highs remaining in the 90s and peak heat indices over 100 each day. Heat is expected to peak on Sunday and Monday, with heat indices potentially reaching 108-110 in some areas. This may warrant the issuance of Heat Advisories for Sunday and/or Monday. JGC/98

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Focus this morning remains to be patchy areas of SFC FG for a few areas across coastal interior FL and across portions southern AL. Most impactful foggy areas remains away from area terminals, which should persist through sunrise as all FG dissipates. Thereafter, SCT SHRA/TSRA will be expected along the coast, with greater coverage inland in the afternoon hours. Main impacts will be periodic lower VIS/CIGs from heavy rain leading to temporary flight reductions, but expect VFR to prevail outside of any of this activity. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Nearby surface high pressure will continue to promote light/variable flow today, becoming 5 to 8kts from the SE later this afternoon. Winds become more established out of the west later this weekend and into Monday at around 5 to 10kts, but could switch from the east Tuesday into late-week, becoming moderate at 10 to 15kts as a front approaches the area. Daily mainly early morning showers/storms will be expected, with a few waterspouts possible each morning. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 90 73 92 74 / 40 10 40 20 Pensacola 89 76 91 77 / 40 10 40 30 Destin 88 78 89 78 / 40 10 20 40 Evergreen 92 72 95 70 / 50 10 50 50 Waynesboro 93 72 96 71 / 40 10 50 20 Camden 91 73 97 73 / 50 10 40 30 Crestview 91 72 92 73 / 50 20 40 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ALZ056-059- 060.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201-203- 205.

MS...None. GM...None.