textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 - Cold temperatures are expected over the next 7 days. Sub- freezing temperatures are forecast across much of the area, especially Thursday night and over the weekend.

- Strong northerly winds will occur over the marine area Wednesday night and Thursday, creating hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Nearly identical upper troughs will impact the eastern half of the U.S. through the upcoming weekend. Both will feature a 150 knot upper jet diving south-southeast from south central Canada over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with an equally strong or perhaps stronger upper jet extending up along the eastern Seaboard. The first upper trough will reach its strongest and become highly amplified late Wednesday night, and the second reaching its strongest, becoming medium amplified, around midnight Saturday night. The first trough will feature an associated surface low pressure area moving across southeast Canada by midweek, sending an associated strong cold front through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. This front will continue to move rapidly toward our region on Wednesday and sweep through our area from late Wednesday afternoon through mid- evening. The second trough will feature an associated surface low pressure area slightly further south and move across the northern Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday, sending an associated strong cold front through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest Thursday and Thursday night. This front will continue toward our region and pass through our area Saturday morning. A Clipper System diving southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday night through Sunday afternoon will send a reinforcing cold front through our area Sunday morning.

Isolated to scattered light showers are possible late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as the upper trough approaches our region and deepens. Isolated to scattered light showers are also possible north of Highway 84 Wednesday afternoon and east of the Tombigbee River Wednesday evening ahead of the cold front. Very little moisture will return ahead of the weekend system, so we are expecting dry weather conditions. That said, there is a small potential of a few flurries late Wednesday night and late Saturday night with the passing of the two surface cold fronts.

High temperatures will be near normal Wednesday in the middle 50s and lower 60s before we enter into the arctic airmass, with highs Thursday ranging from 44-49 degrees. Lows Thursday night should fall into the middle to upper 20s inland, with lower 30s along the immediate coast. These high and low temperatures are about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The apparent temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings in the lower to middle 20s inland and the middle to upper 20s closer to the coast are expected to remain just above cold weather advisory criteria. After a quick moderation in temperatures on Friday, sub-freezing overnight lows are expected again Saturday and Sunday nights in the wake of the second cold front.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through Wednesday afternoon, briefly becoming MODERATE Wednesday night for the Florida beaches. A LOW risk of rip currents will follow through the remainder of the week. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions expected the rest of the day through the evening. A passing system is expected to bring local drops to MVFR levels late tonight into Wednesday morning, Easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots this afternoon will shift to southerly overnight, then westerly Wednesday morning. /16

MARINE

Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for our entire area starting Wednesday night due to a strong cold front passes through the region. This SCA will remain in effect for the coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida until 9 AM Thursday, the coastal waters out 20 NM until noon, and from 20 to 60 NM until 6 PM. Prior to the arrival of the front, mariners operating small craft on the Gulf should exercise caution Wednesday afternoon due to a moderate westerly flow. Behind the front, offshore flow will gradually decrease Thursday afternoon through the overnight hours, becoming a light onshore flow on Friday. A light to moderate westerly flow Friday night will shift northwesterly on Saturday in the wake of the next cold front. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 41 60 34 49 / 40 20 10 0 Pensacola 45 61 37 49 / 40 30 20 0 Destin 47 61 39 49 / 40 30 20 0 Evergreen 39 59 32 46 / 40 20 20 0 Waynesboro 40 57 29 45 / 40 20 10 0 Camden 39 56 30 43 / 40 30 20 0 Crestview 37 61 35 48 / 40 30 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ670-675.