textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 619 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. Hazards will include intense rain rates leading to localized flooding and brief gusty winds. For marine areas, waterspouts and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible.

- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in place for local area beaches through Monday.

- Heat index values of 95-100 trend higher by the middle of next week, potentially reaching 103-110.

UPDATE

Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Forecast remains on track this morning, with scattered to numerous showers beginning to develop over the northern Gulf and push into coastal Alabama. This activity will likely continue through the remainder of the morning, with coverage decreasing as we head through the afternoon. Primary concern over the next few hours will be if storms manage to train over the same locations. We are starting to see hints of this with the band of showers pushing into Gulf Shores/Orange Beach. If storms deepen and train for long periods of time, then a localized flash flood risk may materialize this morning along the coast. /96

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Late tonight, the main story remains to be what is denoted as Invest 97L, or a weak surface low about 125 miles south of Pensacola in our outer marine waters. Focusing in on the next 12-18 hours taking a very close look at the latest HRRR/REFS guidance shows a persistent indication for convective initiation later this morning through mid/late Sunday morning. Wanted to take a much closer look over this potential going through a suite of guidance and mesoscale analysis, which continues to reveal the main player being a combination of several factors: 1) Increasing differential friction speed convergence/directional confluence, which really sets off the CAM's with convective initiation later, as RAP sfc vorticity/convergence remains targeted right along the coast from Destin to coastal MS later tonight. Should landbreeze development help to switch winds more from the E to eventual ENE, this "squeeze" will increase aiding in even greater localized ascent. 2) Closely related to this, Invest 97L itself will steadily drift west, helping to promote more ESE to SE marine winds with time and, broad scale sfc to low-level confluence will support lift needed for marine convection later tonight. 3) Building overnight marine instability, which will be the fuel for where/if any storms develop. Taking a look at the latest 00Z HREF run continues to target 3hr QPF PMM right along the coast from coastal Jackson Co, MS to coastal Mobile, Baldwin and perhaps near Pensacola from 09-15Z being the main targeted time. Comparably, the 18Z REFS 6hr PMM targets the same area, providing locally higher QPF values of 6-8" (some 10") between the I-10 corridor and perhaps just barely offshore. Will frankly say, should these ingredients come together, models support a localized targeted flash flood risk. If storms ignite along the west/east oriented convergence band, storms will be very capable of localized training/backbuilding given easterly 850mb moisture transport, opposite of corfidi upshear vectors from the west.

The catch will be as previously mentioned, if enough lift can ignite as widespread convection, and the location. Should the landbreeze be a bit more overcoming, the corridor could be just offshore. Regardless, given targeted consistency amongst more reliable CAM trends in the near-term, began to message this risk. Additionally, overall lowest 0-1km bulk shear being very low, low ML LCL, ample PW at 2.0"+, and steep 0-3km lapse rates will once again support an enhanced waterspout risk and given the proximity of potential convection to the beaches, could be photogenic again in some areas.

If convection occurs similar to guidance, eventually this activity drifts an outflow boundary north, north of the interstate into interior MS/AL/FL which will combine to support lift alongside daytime diurnal destabilization for more inland activity. PoPs reveal this scenario well with lower PoPs for farther north as confidence is a tad lower within drier vertical profile.

Monday, as the surface low continues it's slow meandering journey west across SE LA, we'll remain parked under SE to S flow for another round of early AM marine convection and nearshore waterspout/localized flash flooding risk.

No major adjustments needed for temperatures today and Monday, but should convection along the coast be more overzealous, that could interfere with forecast highs and could be several, if not many degrees cooler just depending on how the diurnal curve is effected by delay and we clear out later, or clouds remain around the area, likely the former, thus, didn't touch temperatures too much this go around.

Tuesday through there rest of the week, with ridging parked just to our north over the mid MS valley region, we'll continue to see weak PVA/impulses riding east to west across the northern Gulf coast to provide attendant energy/lift in conjunction with daily destabilization/seabreeze development for routine morning/afternoon shower/storm risks. Temperatures do climb steadily with highs back into the mid 90's, but as we've been mentioning, long-term forecast dewpoints provided by the NBM continue to not reflect a more realistic PBL mixing regime, meaning heat indices will remain likely lower in the 103-108 degree range. Still hot, regardless! But welcome to summer.

Will end looking at the long-range as going over cluster analysis between the CMC, EPS and GEFS was pretty entertaining. Seeing a distinct split amongst guidance at several interesting scenario potentials. Namely, formerly Dolly OR additional disturbances riding west from the Bahamas potentially into the Gulf. Seeing spread on 1) The idea of the ridge once again retrograding west back to the four-corners region, helping to promote deeper east- coast troughing OR the ridge remains parked just about in place. Not going to get cute and weight out a laundry list of scenarios here, instead will mention low confidence in the extended. With the possibility of disturbances parading towards the area, it will require close monitoring because if the synoptic scale reveals any (even smaller) period of favorable tropical development in the vicinity of these disturbances, it is possible we could see something reform/or develop in the Gulf and from there, it's tough to say this early. So will finish by saying late week into next weekend/early the following week, just stay tuned. Especially if you have any upcoming travel plans and remember to pay attention to reliable sources. KLG

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are beginning to develop this morning across the northern Gulf and push into coastal Alabama. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Rain chances should start to decrease during the afternoon and especially into the evening hours. Winds will generally be easterly to southeasterly at around 5-10 knots throughout the period. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A weak low pressure center located about 125 miles south of Pensacola will continue to slowly drift westward away from the area over the next few days. However, this system will continue to bring local marine hazards including periods of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with squalls producing winds 34 knots or greater and a heightened risk for waterspouts. Outside of thunderstorm activity, moderate SE flow will persist st generally 10-15kts, higher for 20- 60nm zones. Waves will respond in the 2 to approaching 3ft range, but winds and wave/seas relax more going into next week as the surface low drifts farther away from the local area. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 89 74 91 73 / 50 20 50 10 Pensacola 88 76 89 76 / 60 40 40 30 Destin 88 77 89 76 / 50 30 60 20 Evergreen 93 71 94 69 / 30 20 40 10 Waynesboro 94 72 95 70 / 20 0 20 10 Camden 92 72 93 71 / 20 10 20 10 Crestview 91 71 92 71 / 50 20 60 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.