textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 804 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 - Temperatures will continue to rise through the weekend into early next week. Forecast heat indices in the 100 to 107 range this weekend and 105 to 111 next week for portions of the area.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday afternoon into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 804 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Forecast remains on track this evening with a few storms sliding south across south-central Alabama. Storms will continue to diminish over the next 1-2 hours with the loss of daytime heating. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A deep layer ridge of high pressure will slowly drift westward across the north central Gulf through the weekend. Meanwhile, a weak upper low will drift northwestward in the eastern Gulf through early next week. Some slow development is possible with this system and NHC has upped the formation chances to 30%. Models continue to struggle with whether the trough over the Mid- Atlantic pulls it northeast or it moves westward under the influence of northeasterly flow from the upper ridge. We will continue to monitor this system and provide updates through the weekend.

Increased moisture from this system will bring higher moisture levels to the region with precipitable water values climbing to around 2 inches by Saturday afternoon. This will bring higher rain chances to the area by Saturday afternoon through Sunday, especially across eastern portions of the area. Rain chances early next week remain uncertain due to the eventual motion of the Gulf system and how much moisture gets pulled into the area. Rain chances decrease through the middle of next week as the upper ridge expands back to the east with increased mid/upper level subsidence.

Above normal temperatures will occur through early next week, with highs in the lower to middle 90s today and Saturday, warming into the middle and upper 90s through at least the middle of next week. The higher moisture levels combined with increased temperatures will lead to increasing heat stress. Heat Index values will climb into the 100 to 107 range this weekend and 105 to 111 or higher through at least the middle of next week. A Heat Advisory will likely be required with Excessive Heat products possible as well for parts of the area. /13

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 804 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Lingering storms across south-central Alabama should diminish over the next two hours. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

High pressure will continue to move west across the northern Gulf through the weekend. This will maintain a light to occasionally moderate west to northwest flow through early next week. Seas will generally 1 to 2 feet. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 96 76 95 75 / 10 10 40 30 Pensacola 95 79 95 78 / 0 0 60 50 Destin 93 79 93 79 / 10 10 60 60 Evergreen 93 74 94 73 / 10 10 50 40 Waynesboro 95 75 95 75 / 20 10 20 20 Camden 91 74 93 74 / 10 10 30 30 Crestview 95 75 95 74 / 10 10 60 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.