textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- A few waterspouts possible over the marine area during late night and morning showers and storms.

- Heat indices continue to be in the 100 to 107 range for the area through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Precipitation chances increase over the holiday weekend, especially for Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A stout low to mid level ridge axis of high pressure holds from the OH/TN Valley, eastward to across the Mid-Atlantic. An assessment of deep layer moisture shows PWAT's have lowered over the southeast U.S. with western nose of < 1.50" values extending across southern AL to the northwest FL Panhandle. There remains a small PoP west of these areas today where deep layer moisture is better at 1.5 to 1.9" and instability is progged to be higher. The deep layer ridge to the north begins to show signs of breaking down by the start of the July 4th Holiday weekend. With the strength of the deep layer ridge close by, chances of and areal coverage of precipitation to be suppressed is more favored. Even so, cannot rule out a few over-achieving storms which will likely contain brief strong wind gusts, concentrated frequent lightning activity and locally heavy rain the next couple days. A similar pattern aloft exists as we move into the 4th of July weekend with deep layer moisture recovering (PWAT's 1.60 to 1.80"). This combined with daytime instability results in improved rain chances going into the weekend, especially closer to sea-breeze boundary and any mesoscale convective outflows. The height field aloft weakens over the Lower MS Valley Region into the first half of next week as a more typical summertime convective pattern sets up with modest chances of daily showers/thunderstorms along the sea breeze and resultant outflow boundaries.

Hot conditions to continue across the region with highs over the interior 92 to 97, 89 to 93 at the coast through Saturday and a few degrees above early July normal. Gridded highs reflect lower to mid 90's interior and 89 to 91 coast into next week. Heat indices continue to be 100-107 for most of the area. Even with heat indices being just under our Heat Advisory criteria of 108, it is still very uncomfortable outside. May need heat products middle of next week as more of a widespread area could be impacted by Heat Advisory Criteria (108-112 heat index) values then. There will be little overnight relief with low temperatures each night only reaching the mid 70's on average. Some lows along the coast possibly around 80. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water and take breaks in A/C when possible. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Deep east southeasterly flow will persist over the area today as the north central Gulf Coast remains positioned along the southern periphery of a strong mid/upper level ridge centered over the Mid Atlantic states. This flow should help to suppress the coastal sea breeze a bit closer to the coast and also keep precipitable water values below 1.5". There could still be an isolated shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze this afternoon, but considering the overall drier airmass in place any mention of convection will be left out of the TAF forecast. The influence of the ridge and drier air will also keep VFR conditions prevailing through the period. Surface winds should remain southeasterly this afternoon between 7- 10kts, with the exception of KJKA where the developing seabreeze should lift to the north of the site after 20z with southeast winds 7-10kts with occasional gusts to 15kts becoming southerly 8-10kts following the seabreeze passage.

Winds will become light and variable early this evening with any lingering cumulus dissipating. Scattered diurnal cumulus based around 2.5kft should again develop by mid morning tomorrow with southeast winds 7-9kts. Greater deep layer moisture should advect over the area as the ridge shifts east and weakens. This along with a stronger inland penetrating seabreeze should support better coverage of afternoon storms along the boundary which may impact TAF sites just beyond the forecast period for this TAF set. /JLH

MARINE

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Although rain chances are low over the coastal waters the next couple days, any mainly very isolated late night and morning showers and storms over the marine area brings the potential for waterspouts. Chances may become higher as we move into next week. Outside of this, a generally light but varying diurnal wind expected in the near term with an offshore flow late in the night/morning, becoming more onshore each afternoon. High pressure nosing westward across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf favors a more established southwesterly flow Sunday and into early next week. Seas 2 feet or less. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 95 75 95 / 0 20 10 20 Pensacola 78 95 79 95 / 0 10 0 10 Destin 79 93 80 93 / 0 10 0 10 Evergreen 73 96 73 95 / 0 10 10 30 Waynesboro 75 96 75 96 / 0 10 0 30 Camden 74 93 74 93 / 0 10 0 20 Crestview 73 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.