textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to possible flash flooding will occur over the next several days.

- HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through at least Friday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Heat indices rise to around 100 this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Through Sunday...A deep upper trough moves through an upper ridge over the Southeast into the weekend, shifting the ridge west to over and west of the Mississippi River. A surface ridge stretching over Florida, shifts south as it builds further west, shifting deep layer flow from more southerly to southwesterly. This shuffling of upper dynamics will move a band of drier air over the forecast area Friday (and precipitable h20 levels around dropping to around 1.5 by early Friday night). This dry band will shift to over the northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday, with a soupy airmass (precipitable h20 values rising back to near 2") moving back over the forecast area for Saturday. For the forecast area, with the highest moisture levels generally west of the Tombigbee River today, best PoPs remain west of the River. With the drier airmass moving over the area Friday, highest Pops shift to east of the Tombigbee River. By Saturday, with the building upper ridge over the Mississippi River, subsidence will keep higher PoPs east of the Tombigbee. The better PoPs shift west over more of the forecast area as the ridge shifts further west. Needless to say, with the soupy airmass combined with good instability (MLCapes topping out around 1500J/kg), any of these thunderstorms will be efficient rainers through the weekend. Will need to monitor for continued water issues, especially this afternoon. Thereafter, more localized ponding issues remain possible.

Looking at temperatures, high temperatures around to a bit below seasonal norms are expected through Friday as the upper ridge weakens and daytime cloud cover hampers heating. Heading into the weekend, the building upper ridge will bring above seasonal high temperatures back to the forecast area, with high temperatures around 90 expected by Sunday. With most convection being in the afternoon due to the upper subsidence, Heat Indices above 100F return for Sunday for the southwestern half of the forecast area. Low temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms are expected through Sunday night.

Monday on, a deepening upper low over the Mid Atlantic region will shift the Mississippi River Ridge further west. A weak cold front approaches northeastern regions of the forecast area mid week, moving a bit drier airmass over the forecast area and nearby, along with a bit cooler airmass for the end of the week. Above seasonal temperatures and Heat Indices Monday drop to the low to mid 80s by Thursday. Daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent onshore flow decreases into the weekend and beyond, decreasing swell on area beaches. Even with a large tidal range, there will be a slow decrease in the Rip Risk, from the current Moderate to High to a low by Monday. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

MVFR conditions will prevail through most of the day. Current radar shows a line of storms moving across southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama. This line should continue eastward throughout the afternoon leading to reductions in visibilites to IFR and LIFR with the heaviest storms. Conditions should return to MVFR behind the storms through midnight before IFR to LIFR ceilings develop around and after midnight areawide. Winds will remain light out of the south. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Light to at times moderate onshore flow persists through Friday before winds turn more westerly over the weekend as high pressure builds west over the Gulf. Locally higher winds and seas are possible near thunderstorms this week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 86 71 88 / 20 60 30 60 Pensacola 73 86 74 86 / 10 40 40 60 Destin 74 85 74 84 / 10 40 50 60 Evergreen 70 87 70 87 / 20 70 40 70 Waynesboro 70 86 70 87 / 20 60 40 50 Camden 69 85 69 84 / 30 70 60 70 Crestview 70 89 71 87 / 10 60 40 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.