textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Abnormally hot conditions continue with a Heat Advisory in effect for all locations Thursday and Friday as afternoon heat indices rise into the 108 to 112 range.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, resulting in localized flooding and locally strong to damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Starting off with late this morning, offshore convection continues, fueled by ample marine instability and the remnant landbreeze boundary. Will keep an eye on weak/subtle backbuilding and NW propagation per recent upwind corfidi vectors from the SE, but should remain weak enough and locked over outer waters before dissipating. Otherwise, we'll heat on up over land areas again today enough to reach convective T. Looks like it'll be another similar day to yesterday with earliest convection igniting from greatest onset forcing caused by either subtle confluence bands or seabreeze interactions. Any boundary interactions will quickly allow updrafts to accelerate, and with notable dry air entrainment (DCAPE >1000j/kg), severe downburst winds will yet again be another risk. Best timing from 2PM-7PM this afternoon. Otherwise, no modifications needed to temperatures as guidance/trends remains on track, with a Heat Advisory remaining in effect.

Friday and going into the weekend, we remain in general mid-level weakness on the eastern periphery of an anonymously strong ridge over the four corners region, with broad troughing centered over the Ohio/TN valley. Could distinctly see a rinse- repeat of today/yesterday again for Friday introducing another round of strong to locally severe storms in the afternoon hours. Additionally, went with another Heat Advisory for all areas as heat indices reach 108-111, moreso along the I-10 corridor. Then, going into the weekend, the aforementioned broad trough sharpens into the mid/southern Atlantic states, helping to push (slightly) drier air aloft into the region. Could see just enough suppression to offset peak heating, diurnally forced convection, or atleast enough to lower coverage overall. NBM PoPs are coming into agreement on that idea reducing coverage down to 10-20% in areas. Still, areas of greatest forcing, enough to offset this suppression (moreso caused by seabreeze/boundary confluence) could get a few isolated storms going.

With this slightly drier air, it's likely we'll be introduced with lower dewpoints, perhaps reaching the low to mid 60's for interior AL counties which will reduce the need for heat advisories. However, will watch the coast where it could remain close enough, especially near/south of the I-10 corridor.

Monday into next week, focus will be on what long-range guidance is hinting with shortwave impulses riding around the ridge from the north-central Plains into the TN valley, and how any sfc/mesoscale reflection could be in the form of either a NW to SE MCS, and how far/expansive these (possible several) complexes could become if they could clip our area. Something to watch, otherwise it remains pretty typical for summer next week with highs in the mid 90's and max heat indices in the 103-108 range thanks to slightly drier air at the sfc. KLG

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Scattered showers and storms will develop each afternoon with brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions in and around showers and storms. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A light to occasionally moderate mostly westerly flow pattern will persists late this week into next week. Winds are expected to shift northwesterly late each night and then southwesterly in the afternoon. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 95 75 95 74 / 40 20 50 20 Pensacola 93 77 93 77 / 40 0 40 20 Destin 92 79 91 78 / 20 10 20 40 Evergreen 98 72 96 71 / 50 20 40 40 Waynesboro 99 73 98 72 / 40 20 30 20 Camden 97 73 95 72 / 30 30 30 30 Crestview 97 73 96 72 / 30 10 40 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.