textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 - Abnormally hot temperatures and heat indices continue throughout the upcoming week. Heat advisories will likely be needed each day as heat indices soar to the 105 to 112 degree range each afternoon.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida Panhandle beaches Monday, persisting into mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Abnormally hot conditions continue across the region with daily high temperatures in the upper 90's to near 100 and afternoon heat indices areawide in the 105 to 112 degree range through at least mid-week. This will result in continued heat stress to individuals spending time outdoors and/or without access to air conditioning. Given this, another Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire area Monday from 11am to 8pm, with additional heat advisories likely to come as we head through the rest of the week. Some locations along the immediate coastal interface around Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay may see heat indices approach/exceed 113 any given afternoon. If confidence on this can increase in future forecast updates a targeted Extreme Heat Warning may become necessary for portions of our coastal counties in Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. The overall pattern responsible for the hot weather remains rooted in place as upper ridging prevails across the region and surface high pressure remains situated over the northern gulf. Some glimmer of hope for a little bit of relief comes late week as upper ridging weakens and we see an increased chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly as we head into Friday and the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be relatively "cooler" in the middle 90's late week into the weekend and afternoon heat indices relax somewhat into the 100 to 110 degree range. Overnight lows follow a similar cadence, staying in the middle to upper 70's areawide with near 80 along the immediate coast through Wednesday night, cooling a few degrees for late week into the weekend.

Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms can be expected, primarily in association with the sea breeze through mid-week. These chances increase late week into the weekend owing to the aforementioned adjustments in the upper air pattern. Some dry air aloft combined with PWAT's in the 2 to 2.3" range each afternoon will favor locally strong to damaging wind gusts from wet microbursts associated with any storms that are able to develop sufficiently deep, stronger cores. This is particularly the case in any cell collisions that occur.

Increasing westerly flow along the immediate coast will allow for an increase in the risk for rip currents along the western Florida Panhandle Monday through Wednesday. A Low risk for rip currents exists today for all beaches, becoming a Moderate risk Monday for the Florida Panhandle beaches. Alabama beaches are currently expected to remain Low through the week, but forecast trends will be monitored as we begin the week. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region outside of temporary reductions in flight category underneath any afternoon isolated to scattered showers/storms. Winds will remain generally out of the north today less than 5 knots, becoming southerly around 5 to 10 knots with the inland advancing sea-breeze boundary this afternoon. Light southwesterly winds tonight shift to westerly Monday morning at around 5 knots. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern persists across the marine waters this week. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. Any morning thunderstorms that can develop and remain rooted along the land- breeze boundary may have the potential to produce waterspouts. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 97 77 96 / 10 30 20 50 Pensacola 81 95 81 96 / 10 30 20 30 Destin 82 92 82 94 / 10 30 20 30 Evergreen 77 99 76 98 / 0 40 30 30 Waynesboro 77 101 73 100 / 0 40 20 40 Camden 77 98 75 97 / 0 30 20 20 Crestview 77 98 77 97 / 10 30 30 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.