textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- There is the potential for strong to severe storms this weekend and heavy rain each day though the weekend.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will occur today through the upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Dry conditions are expected tonight, with lows dropping to the mid/upper 50s well inland ranging to the mid 60s at the coast. The forecast is on track with no changes planned at the moment. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Through Sunday, upper level disturbances pass over the forecast area each day, with showers and thunderstorms expected each day.

For today into tonight, a cold front currently along I-65 at noontime moves along the coast as this round of energy quickly moves off. Another round Friday brings a round of isentropically upglide created, elevated showers and thunderstorms. Some guidance is advertising the convection becoming more surface based, but the great majority are advertising little to no SBCapes over land portions of the forecast area. Looking at MUCapes, enough instability is available above the surface for rumblers to mix in, but not enough for any of the primary three modes of severe storms. The stronger storms may bring locally heavy rains and water issues with poor drainage localities. With precipitable h20 levels in the 1.8"-2.0" range, the storms will likely be efficient rainers.

Heading into the weekend, things are getting more interesting, with a closed upper low over the NM/TX/Mexico region begins to open and move east, and more shortwave energy ahead moving over the forecast area. Most guidance, especially the CAMs and mesoscale models, is advertising surface based convection as a warm front moves inland with a more organized onshore flow. Will have to monitor for the possiblity of strong to severe storms. With a soupy airmass remaining over the forecast area (all guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values remaining around 1.8"+), water issues are possible, especially if rainfall amounts from previous days hang around. For Sunday, guidance is advertising an uptick in instability, though wind shear is borderline. Upper support precedes the time of highest instability (the now open shortwave trough passes over the forecast area late Saturday night into Sunday morn). Not to sound like a broken record, but will need to monitor, especially if the timing of the ingredients changes.

Looking at temperatures in the first portion of the forecast, the rain will drop high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s for Friday. From there, high temperatures rise back to near seasonal norms, low to mid 80s, for Sunday. Looking at low temperatures, upper 50s north of Highway 84, around 60 to around 65 along the coast are expected tonight. With increased cloud cover decreasing overnight cooling, low temperatures rise into the low to mid 60s along and north of Highway 84, upper 60s south to the coast for Saturday and Sunday nights

For Sunday night through Thursday...the last in the string of shortwave troughs pass, with a cold front crossing the forecast area Monday in response. By Monday night, a drier, but not appreciably cooler airmass begins to move over the forecast area, with near to a bit above seasonal conditions returning for the extended portion of the forecast.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, southerly flow over the northern Gulf will continue to bring increased swell to area beaches. Combined with a large tidal range, a high end Moderate Risk, at times High, is expected through the weekend. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions continue over interior areas tonight with an MVFR ceiling over the southern portion of the area which occasionally improves to VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop on Friday. MVFR ceilings develop across most of the area on Friday, and IFR conditions will be possible with the stronger storms. Light northerly winds overnight become east to northeast at 5-10 knots over interior areas on Friday, while closer to the coast a south to southwest flow near 10 knots develops through the day. /29

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Light onshore flow increases to a light to moderate flow by tonight as a cold front moves south and stalls along the coast. A light to moderate offshore flow develops behind the front, but quickly shifts to onshore temporarily over the weekend before a passing system brings back light to moderate offshore flow Monday. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 63 76 66 79 / 0 40 60 90 Pensacola 66 77 69 79 / 0 30 60 90 Destin 67 78 69 78 / 0 20 50 90 Evergreen 57 75 59 78 / 0 20 70 90 Waynesboro 57 73 61 77 / 0 30 70 80 Camden 56 73 59 76 / 0 10 70 80 Crestview 61 78 63 80 / 0 20 50 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.