textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Heat indices will be mostly in the 100 to 105 range this weekend then trend to higher values of 100-108 for Tuesday through Friday.

- Rain chances increase on Sunday with rain likely over much of the area on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows zonal flow aloft across much of the CONUS, with a weak shortwave over the Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure remains over the southeast, with weak surface flow over the local area. An abundance of moisture continues to filter in over the area, which is helping to aid in very isolated convection over our interior areas. The lack of forcing is keeping this activity short lived, but a quick shower/storm remains possible this afternoon.

Rain chances will really increase late tonight and into Sunday, as the aforementioned shortwave amplifies and digs into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will shift the Subtropical Ridge further east and provide some forcing for any storms that can develop. We'll likely see early showers/storms developing along outflow boundaries still lingering from today's activity. Showers/storms will increase in coverage during the afternoon, becoming more numerous as the trough slowly moves east. By Monday, the trough will shift through the Ohio and TN Valleys, pushing a weak surface boundary to the east and south. Not anticipating much organization with this activity, but with ample instability, any storm that can maintain a healthy updraft will be capable of producing brief wind gusts and perhaps some small hail. Rain chances decrease as we head into the evening, as we lose our daytime heating and the trough continues its eastward progression. The boundary may stall along the coast on Tuesday, leaving the potential for scattered to numerous storms right along the coast, but uncertainty is high on when/where this boundary will stall.

The remainder of the forecast period will generally be hot and dry. Ridging builds back in from the southeast, bringing enough subsidence to reduce rain chances. Isolated to scattered storms are possible each afternoon, aided by daytime heating. Otherwise, temperatures will be right around seasonal norms, with highs climbing into the lower to mid 90s and overnight lows dropping into the lower to mid 70s. /73

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. An isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon, but remains unlikely so have kept mention out of the TAFs. A greater coverage of storms is expected on Sunday, with a PROB30 for TSRA included towards the end of the TAF. Otherwise, winds will generally remain light through the period. /73

MARINE

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 92 75 91 / 0 40 20 60 Pensacola 79 93 79 92 / 0 20 30 50 Destin 80 91 81 90 / 0 10 30 40 Evergreen 74 93 73 91 / 10 40 20 50 Waynesboro 74 93 73 91 / 10 60 20 70 Camden 75 91 73 89 / 10 50 20 50 Crestview 74 94 75 92 / 0 20 10 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.