textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1051 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- A MODERATE Risk of rip currents and elevated surf heights of 2-3 feet continues through this afternoon.

- Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few storms could be strong with strong wind gusts the main risks.

- Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106 degree range Saturday through at least Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1051 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Rather quiet out there today thanks to nearby high pressure, supported by a dominant closed ridge anchored over the southern US. The proximity of the ridge and surface high just to our northwest has promoted the introduction of slightly drier air to the area that we noticed yesterday. GOES-16 derived precipitable water illustrates this slug of drier air over the northern Gulf coast states, and given upper-level subsidence/suppression, will be hard to find any shower activity at all today. With the dry air in place, we'll be greeted with yet again strong afternoon PBL mixing, helping to drop dewpoints down into the mid 60's, to even some lower 60's for interior areas which in turn, will reduce any impactful heat indices.

Now going into the weekend, we are greeted with a steady change, mostly in the form of increasing moisture and rain chances yet again. Ongoing just to our east is a noticeable upper-level low, accompanied by anomalously high moisture producing ongoing showers and storms over the Florida panhandle. This upper-low will continue to steadily retrograde west into the western Gulf this weekend while the aforementioned ridge center breaks down some. This will promote a steady increase in mid-altantic moisture southwest into the northern Gulf coast states. Starting with Saturday, RRFS/REFS and HRRR clustering + trends continue to indicate this 1) breakdown in heights and 2) increase in tropospheric moisture will support diurnally-forced convective initiation across west Georgia/east-central Alabama. This may be something to watch, as upper-level mean flow is driving out of the northeast to the southwest, as if convective coverage is deeper and cold pooling aids in the development of a south or southwestward surging outflow boundary, we could see a disorganized cluster get it's act together on the I-85 corridor and surge south into southern Alabama or northwestern Florida. Could see a locally strong storm out of these, but not getting a tremendously strong indication of dry low/mid-level air to support downward severe wind gusts but, any anchored to cold-pool boundaries could get gusty at times. Something to watch as how far south and the coverage we see depends on upstream coverage early/mid Saturday afternoon.

Sunday, the proximity of the upper-level low being just offshore our coastal waters, attendant PVA all fueled by diurnal destabilization will be plenty to ignite scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially where there is the greatest localized forcing (specific to the developing coastal seabreeze). For now, coverage in the 40-70% looks good from about Baldwin county, east across the Florida Panhandle but any localized boundary intersections could support a stronger updraft or two but again, not seeing any strong indications of severe weather yet, as a lot of this moisture being pulled from the mid-atlantic moistens up the vertical profile. producing long/skinny CAPE profiles and less in the way of an entrainment/damaging wind issue. Something we'll closely monitor, however.

Monday into the rest of next week, we stay parked underneath a moist, summer-like environment within a zone of upper-level weakness, even as the upper-low weakens and gets picked up to the northeast along the Atlantic coast by a great lakes shortwave trough. This will, yep you guessed it, allow the ridge to build back into the southern and southeastern US. That in turn will try to reduce rain chances later in the week but overall, very summer-like week next week but not seeing any strong indications of excessive/extreme heat concerns at this time. KLG

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast period. Surface winds will remain light/weak today through tonight. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 1051 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through early next week with winds trending to an occasionally moderate onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. Waves and seas will respond by weakening today dropping from 2 to 3 feet this afternoon to 1 to 2 feet tonight through the weekend and into next week. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 91 74 93 76 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 90 76 90 77 / 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 95 69 96 70 / 0 0 30 20 Waynesboro 95 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 96 71 97 70 / 0 0 30 20 Crestview 93 70 94 71 / 0 0 30 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.