textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase late week, especially Thursday and Friday. A few storms could become strong, with locally strong wind gusts and isolated flooding form intense rainfall rates the primary concerns. A mainly morning waterspout risk will also continue each day across marine areas.

- Heat index values near 100 trend higher through this week, potentially reaching 105-108 in some locations by late in the week on into Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Forecast remains on track this morning; no updates needed. /96|

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Starting off tonight once again on the clear/calm and dry side! Our main story (Now TS Edouard) in the NW Gulf continues to drift away from the local area, with light/moderate easterly low-level flow prevailing. This morning, precipitable water tells an interesting story showing how slightly drier air continues to sag south to just about the northern Gulf coastline. With our area being in such a benign upper-level pattern with no outside source of lift aside from diurnal destabilization, we won't see much in the way of coverage, perhaps even less than the last few days given drier upper-level air and subtle suppression at play. Can't rule out a few isolated showers/storms as NBM PPI grids pinpoint best coverage/chances along the I-10 corridor from where the seabreeze boundary could offset the lack of dynamic ascent and subtle suppression. So don't be surprised to see a passing shower or two, but will be very brief and not widespread.

Generally the same story Wednesday, same coverage chances, same locations. Temperatures do continue to bump up some into the mid 90's for highs, but afternoon PBL mixing reducing dewpoints into the low 70's (upper 60's inland) will reduce the risk for any excessive heat indices or heat risk.

Now Thursday into Friday, we see a bit of a shift in the forecast as the ridge center to our north craws to the east into the mid Atlantic states. What happens is we get a bit of a nudge of weak PVA/impulses riding west along northern Florida, associated with a prominent slug of anomalously high PW airmass with it. A much greater tropospheric moisture profile at play and greater dynamic ascent will be plenty to aid in numerous/likely PoP chances for both days, with greatest coverage in the afternoon/evening hours. (coastal/marine areas in the morning hours). Can't rule out a few strong storms, or even perhaps isolated areas of flash flooding. Something to keep an eye on. Highs have finally come into a better realization of the coverage now backing down to near 90-92 for most of the area, but be aware this could still even be to high for some areas. Don't expect an all-day washout, but several periods of passing showers/storms can be expected.

This weekend into early next week, the pattern switches up as the ridge center re-develops to the west over the central US, allowing for amplifying east-coast troughing. Such a prominent switch into northerly upper-level flow (for this time of the year) will need to be watched as we could see a slow- moving front drift into the local area this weekend into early next, providing another uptick in shower/storm coverage. How far this front makes it will remain to be seen. If the front does attempt to pass and high pressure builds into the Appalachians, yes, we could be greeted with some 50 degree dewpoints, especially for interior areas. Something we'll continue to monitor. KLG

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop by the afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Light and variable winds this morning will become a light easterly to southeasterly flow throughout the day. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Persistent light to moderate easterly flow can be expected today around 8-14kts for outer waters, reducing to 4-8kts in the afternoon and remaining light through the rest of the week ahead. Expect mainly morning scattered shower/storm chances each day, with greater enhancement of coverage possible Thursday and Friday mornings. Main hazards with any stronger to severe storm will be localized wind gusts greater than 34 knots, enhanced/waves seas and waterspouts. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 74 93 73 / 30 0 40 10 Pensacola 90 77 91 76 / 20 0 30 30 Destin 90 77 90 77 / 30 10 20 40 Evergreen 95 73 96 71 / 10 0 10 10 Waynesboro 96 73 97 72 / 10 0 20 10 Camden 95 74 96 72 / 0 10 10 0 Crestview 93 73 94 73 / 20 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.