textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 730 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- A few waterspouts possible over the marine area during late night and morning showers and storms.

- Heat indices continue to be in the 100 to 107 range for the area through the end of this week and into the weekend.

- Precipitation chances increase over the holiday weekend, especially for Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Minor update to add POPs near the coast this morning for isolated showers and storms near Mobile Bay. The remainder of the forecast remains on track /13

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Once again, hot and humid conditions continue across the region. The upper ridge persists and is centered over eastern portions of the OH/TN River Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic. Heat index values continue to be just below the Heat Advisory threshold of 108-112, with maximum values of 100-107 for much of the area through mid next week. Drier air mixing in will aid in lowering afternoon dewpoints to the upper 60s and therefore heat indices for inland areas today. Even though we are below criteria, it is still very hot and uncomfortable outside with high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s. As we return to dominant southerly low level flow, the increase in moisture may put heat indices above Heat Advisory criteria at some point mid next week. There continues be little overnight relief with low temperatures through mid next week only reaching the low to mid 70s and even approaching 80 along the coast. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water and take breaks in A/C when possible.

Rain chances increase as we become less dominated by the strong ridge as it weakens some over the Atlantic and our upper level flow weakens. Lower PWATs of 1.5-1.7" from the end of this week begin to increase again starting Friday evening with the moisture return of southerly flow, reaching 1.9-2.1" by Sunday through mid next week. Beginning this weekend, will be more of a normal summertime pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze and resultant outflow boundaries. SS/97

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 730 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms. /13

MARINE

Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 95 75 95 75 / 20 0 30 10 Pensacola 95 79 95 79 / 20 0 30 10 Destin 93 80 93 80 / 10 0 10 10 Evergreen 96 74 95 72 / 10 0 30 10 Waynesboro 96 75 96 74 / 10 10 20 20 Camden 93 75 92 75 / 10 0 20 10 Crestview 97 74 96 74 / 10 0 40 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.