textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 928 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents continues through tonight for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. - Rain chances increase this weekend, particularly over the western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible, which could lead to localized flooding concerns.

- Heat indices may reach the 100 degree mark by the middle of next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 928 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A weakly reflected, inverted surface trof of low pressure is lifting northward over southeast LA/southeast MS within a deeply moist primed environment where PWAT's from the 06.12Z Sounding at LIX is ~2.25" and very near the maximum of the sounding climatology. East of this feature, radar shows bands of moderate to locally heavy rainfall aligned north to south from southeast MS to across the MS Sound. Considering the radar presentation, the threat of repeated storm motions over the same areas today is looking likely, particularly over southeast MS/southwest AL that were recently hit hard by May's excessive rainfall of 20 to 25". Some areas of central Mobile county topped into the 25 to 30" range for monthly May rains. With that said, the concern is flooding. Rainfall last month has re- charged soil moisture structure. Additional rain, some heavy, will likely lead to runoff, rapid filling of low lying areas and resultant flooding problems where drainage is poor. The national centers have outlooked these areas for a slight risk of excessive rainfall. Latest gridded forecast remains on track with gridded probabilities of rainfall increasing through the course of the day. /10

UPDATE

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The forecast is generally on track with no changes planned at the moment. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Deep tropical moisture is beginning to advect into portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama this morning, creating a stark moisture gradient over our area. In fact, PWATs currently range from as low as 0.8-1.0 inches over our easternmost counties to nearly 2 inches over portions of Mobile, George, and Stone counties. Over the next few hours, this plume of moisture will continue to advect northward, with PWAT values over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama reaching as high as 2.2-2.4 inches by the late morning hours (which, climatologically speaking, is above the 99th percentile for June). This will allow for multiple rounds of showers and storms to develop throughout the day today, mainly for areas west of the Tombigbee River. Coverage will likely be more scattered for our eastern counties thanks to subsidence from the nearby ridge. Not anticipating any severe weather due to shear values remaining very low. That being said, the biggest concern will be the potential for very heavy rainfall. Storms that develop over our western zones would likely be slow-moving, and with very high PWATs in place, storms will be efficient rainfall producers. HREF 24hr LPMMs are generally around 2-5 inches, with localized spots reaching as high as 5-7 inches. If any boundaries are able to set up and storms are able to train over the same locations, then the higher-end values may become realized and a localized flash flooding threat could materialize, especially considering the copious amounts of rainfall we have seen over the past couple weeks. Convective coverage should begin to decrease by the evening hours, although isolated to scattered showers may linger into the evening/overnight hours. Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected to develop on Sunday, mainly west of I-65. Storms should start to develop by around daybreak, spreading inland throughout the afternoon. Once again, there could be some localized flooding in spots where storms train, however, HREF LPMMs are not as enthused on higher-end QPF amounts as they are for today, possibly suggesting that storms may have a bit more motion to them. Rain chances lower once again by the evening hours.

Upper ridging begins to build back into the area for early next week. Subsidence from this upper ridge should help to lower rain chances across the area for Monday and Tuesday, with a more typical summertime pattern (spotty afternoon pulse-type storms) returning by Wednesday. Temperatures will also be on the increase, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s by midweek, along with heat indices reaching the 100 degree mark.

A High Risk of Rip Currents remains in effect through at least tonight, with surf heights remaining at around 3-4 feet. It should be noted that RCMOS probabilities have increased noticably for Sunday. Any further increases in probabilities may result in the High Risk being extended into Sunday. As winds weaken, the rip current risk should drop back to a low risk for Monday and Tuesday, possibly increasing back to a moderate by midweek. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Numerous to widespread showers and storms develop mainly across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and a portion of the western Florida panhandle today with lesser coverage further to the east. The precipitation diminishes this evening. IFR conditions will be possible with the stronger storms. Southeasterly winds 5-15 knots today diminish to 5 knots or less this evening. /29

MARINE

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Moderate southeasterly winds today diminish to a light to moderate flow for Saturday night through Monday. A light to occasionally moderate easterly to southeasterly flow follows for Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas of 3 to 5 feet this morning gradually relax to around 2 feet by Monday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 74 86 73 / 90 50 70 10 Pensacola 84 77 87 75 / 60 20 30 0 Destin 85 76 86 75 / 20 10 10 0 Evergreen 88 71 87 70 / 50 10 70 10 Waynesboro 83 72 86 72 / 100 40 80 20 Camden 87 71 86 70 / 50 20 90 10 Crestview 88 71 89 70 / 30 10 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.