textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- A Marginal Risk of severe storms this afternoon over the northwest zones. - A Heat Advisory is in effect the remainder of the day today for Southeast Mississippi. Hot conditions continue the Fourth of July Holiday weekend.

- Chances of rain decrease the remainder of the week. Isolated storms July 4th may put a brief damper on barbecues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

01.12Z upper air maps show an expansive low to mid level ridge of high pressure centered over the OH/TN River Valleys to the central Appalachians. The local area remains on the southern periphery of the ridge and an established easterly flow. Within the flow, forecasters are monitoring the environment for a marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon over the northwest zones generally west of a Luverne AL to Lucedale MS line. A small sliver of a Slight risk is positioned over Choctaw Co. Afternoon heating has resulted in a destabilization of the local environment with highest instability (SBCape's to 4000-5000 J/kg) positioned over the Marginal/Slight Risk Areas. Pockets of low level lapse rates of ~8C/km, reflecting regions of deeper mixing and potential of damaging straight line winds from convective downdrafts, reside more up across central and northern AL. Our northern flank of counties though are just on the gradient of the higher low level lapse rates (7.5+ C/km) and will monitor radar for any over-achieving storms that may become severe up that way this afternoon. Main threats in any severe storms is damaging downburst winds in excess of 60 mph.

Widespread heat index values of 102-110 today with the highest values in the western half of our area. Heat Advisories continue for our Mississippi counties through 7 PM this evening. For the rest of the week, the deeply reflected pressure ridge to our north and larger scale compressional sinking it provides supports minimal chances of showers/storms. An uptick in summertime shower/storm chances is suggested by late in the Fourth of July weekend with chances continuing into early next week as the upper ridge lessens its grip and the axis of which shifts east of the area. More of a diurnal summer-time convective mode in the medium range looks to set up with best chances of showers/storms over land areas during the day, flipping to Gulf waters at night.

There are indications in the ensembles of some drier air mixing down to the surface Thursday afternoon which may result in some mid to upper 60 dewpoints east of I-65 and potentially more focused over south-central AL to interior NW FL Panhandle. Although a hot day Thursday with mid 90's for highs, the resultant Heat Index (HI) from lowering of dewpoints would be held in check at 98-103 east. West of I-65, HI ranges 101-106. For heat sensitive groups, drink plenty of water if working/playing outdoors, take frequent breaks and in A/C when possible, and monitor for signs of heat illness. Overnight lows muggy, with range of lows generally 73 to 76 interior and upper 70's, perhaps approaching 80 along the coast. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions expected over the forecast area into the afternoon, until developing convection drops conditions to mid MVFR levels. Stronger convection is expected to be along and west of I-65 or along and south of the coast. VFR conditions are expected to return in the evening after the convection settles, and last into Thursday morning. Winds are expected to be light, except near the thunderstorms. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A generally light but varying diurnal wind direction expected the rest of the week with northeast to easterly flow late in the night, becoming more onshore each afternoon. Light southwesterly flow becomes prevalent for Sunday and into early next week. Seas 2 feet or less. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 95 74 95 / 0 10 10 10 Pensacola 78 95 78 95 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 79 93 79 93 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 73 95 73 96 / 0 0 20 10 Waynesboro 74 96 74 97 / 30 10 10 20 Camden 74 93 74 94 / 10 10 10 0 Crestview 73 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076- 078- 079.

GM...None.