textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Rain chances will increase for mid to late week, potentially bringing a risk of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday.

- The risk for strong rip currents increases midweek, with a High risk of rip currents possible across Florida Panhandle beaches Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Warm and dry weather conditions continue to prevail across the region through Tuesday as westerly to northwesterly flow aloft continues to prevail. A more active pattern begins mid to late week as several shortwaves transit the base of longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS. This will bring an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances to the region for the latter half of the week. This active pattern will likely stick around through the weekend bringing continuous chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area.

A cold front will slowly sag south into the forecast area early Thursday morning, potentially stalling across the area for the day Thursday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has generally been slowing down the forward progression of the shortwave and associated cold front. If there were to be a period for potential severe weather, it would be along and south of the stalled front. Timing and location is uncertain as models vary quite a bit on how this front progresses into the area, but the expectation is for ample CAPE, ample shear, and at least modest forcing to allow for some strong to severe thunderstorm development at some point Thursday prior to the frontal passage.

After we get past Thursday, guidance diverges quite a bit on how they handle a potential shortwave/cutoff low across the southwestern U.S. as it transits eastward into the area. If this actually moves east into the area, it would bring the potential for strong to severe storms again as we get into the late week and weekend timeframe, although confidence is rather low at this time. Regardless, with the longwave upper trough still situated across the eastern U.S. and subtle shortwaves progressing around the base of the trough we can at least anticipate isolated to scattered showers and storms to affect portions of the forecast area this weekend.

The risk for strong rip currents will be on the increase as we get into mid to late week. A Low risk today becomes a Moderate risk Wednesday through Friday. A High risk for rip currents becomes possible Thursday for Florida Panhandle beaches.

Overall temperatures will remain seasonable to slightly above normal for highs and lows mid to late week. We will see one more night of below normal temps tonight in the upper 40's to lower and middle 50's before warming into the upper 60's and lower 70's by Wednesday night. If the front makes it fully through the area temperatures will cool late week back to near seasonable for this time of year. High temperatures follow a similar trend, going from upper 70's and lower 80's to day and Tuesday to middle and upper 80's Wednesday. Thursday is more uncertain as it depends on coverage of storms and how quickly that front moves south, but expect at least upper 70's to lower 80's, potentially warmer south of the front. Middle 70's to lower 80's can be expected late week into the weekend. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period along with southerly daytime winds near 10 knots. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Light southerly flow today increases to a light to moderate southerly flow Tuesday through Thursday ahead of a cold front. A light to moderate offshore flow develops late in the week behind the front. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 56 80 68 85 / 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 60 78 70 82 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 61 77 70 80 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 47 83 61 88 / 0 10 0 20 Waynesboro 52 83 65 86 / 0 10 0 60 Camden 50 82 62 86 / 0 10 0 40 Crestview 48 82 63 86 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.