textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 - Dense fog development is likely tonight, particularly near and east of the I-65 corridor. Dense marine fog potential will continue through late week.

- There is a low end potential for severe storms mainly along and west of I-65 Friday into Friday night, and across the entire area on Saturday.

- Strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft Saturday night through Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

A moist southerly surface flow continues over the forecast area through Thursday night as a surface low lifts from the central Plains and progresses towards the Great Lakes. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s over the near shore waters and coastal counties are moving over bay waters with water temperatures as low as 60. This pattern is conducive for advective fog development aided by radiative cooling, although an expansive cirrus shield has spread into the area and is limiting the radiative cooling. This in turn is hampering dense fog development, at least at the moment. A Dense Fog Advisory is currently in effect along and east of I-65 through 9 am Thursday morning, and will leave this as is for now and continue to monitor. There is the potential for fog development again Thursday night, but this could be limited again by upper cloudiness as well as the pressure gradient from the passing surface low tending to keep surface winds from dropping below 5 knots.

Meanwhile through Thursday and going into Friday, a large upper trof strengthens while slowly advancing across the central states, then continues slowly across the eastern states this weekend. By Friday morning, a surface low will be over the Great Lakes with a frontal boundary extending down to the Ohio/Mississippi River confluence then over to near the Texas panhandle where a second surface low will be in place. This second surface low advances to the lower Mississippi River valley Friday evening then deepens while lifting into the northeast states, and in the process brings a cold front through the forecast area mainly from late Saturday morning through the afternoon. A series of shortwaves are expected to move across the region Friday then lift off to the north Friday night. There is uncertainty with how this will pan out, but at this point it appears the best forcing looks to mostly pass just west and north of the forecast area Friday into the evening hours, though the extreme northwest portion of the forecast area will be affected. Past this point, a lesser series of shortwaves along with the approaching large upper trof will bring mild to possibly moderate deep layer lift across the northwestern half of the forecast area later Friday night, then across the remainder of the area on Saturday followed by the frontal passage.

Sufficient instability and shear to warrant concern for strong to possibly severe storm development look to be in place as the deep layer lift shifts across the forecast area. The best potential for severe storm development looks to be over the extreme northwestern portion of the forecast area on Friday into the evening hours where the strongest deep layer forcing potential exists. Considering the uncertainty, will mention in the Key Messages a low end potential for severe storms mainly along and west of I-65 Friday into Friday night, then across the entire area on Saturday and reassess on subsequent shifts. This system will bring high rain chances slowly shifting across the area Friday into Saturday, then dry conditions develop Saturday night. Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Saturday, then much cooler air flows into the area in the wake of the cold front. By Sunday night, lows will drop to the mid 20s inland to the lower 30s near the coast. Similar lows follow for Monday night, then Tuesday night and Wednesday night range from the mid 30s inland to the lower 40s near the coast. Highs Sunday will be in the 50s with similar values following through Thursday except for a bit warmer on Wednesday. There's a chance for rain Tuesday night through Thursday, and while overnight temperatures will be on the cool side, no wintry precipitation is expected. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday night, with a moderate risk for Friday and Friday night. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated for Saturday, with a moderate risk on Sunday and a low risk on Monday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A mix of IFR to VLIFR visbys and cigs will persist through the morning with VLIFR conditions mainly east of I-65 and LIFR to IFR west of I-65. Fog and low ceilings will slowly mix out this morning and lift by midday leading to MVFR to VFR conditions throughout the day. Winds will be light out of the southeast. Winds should stay more elevated overnight tonight and IFR to LIFR ceilings are favored over fog as we approach midnight. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow becomes southeasterly on Thursday and continues into Friday. Dense marine fog potential continues through the rest of the week. A strong offshore flow develops Saturday night in the wake of a cold front, then diminishes on Monday. Gusts to gale force will be possible well offshore late Saturday night through Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for much of the marine area from Saturday night through Monday morning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 64 77 65 / 10 10 50 70 Pensacola 73 64 74 67 / 10 10 20 40 Destin 71 62 72 65 / 10 10 10 30 Evergreen 77 60 79 65 / 10 10 30 50 Waynesboro 77 62 75 63 / 0 40 80 90 Camden 74 61 76 64 / 10 10 50 70 Crestview 76 59 78 63 / 10 10 10 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630>636-650-655.