textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 - There is the potential for isolated severe storms with localized strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall today through Thursday, with the best chance occurring on Wednesday.

- A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues across the Alabama and northwest Florida Gulf beaches through today.

- Summertime heat will return over the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A departing shortwave in northwest flow aloft has dragged a weak surface boundary into the forecast area. This is a NW-SE oriented boundary near the Hwy 84 corridor. Weak low level convergence along this boundary will serve as a focus for scattered to potentially numerous shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. The atmosphere is very unstable with SBCAPEs forecast to be near or exceed 4000 J/kg this afternoon along and south of the Hwy 84 corridor. In addition, mid level lapse rates are steep around 7-7.5 C/km. While deep layer shear is very weak, the above parameters suggest a few storms could become produce strong gusty winds. An isolated, brief severe storm cannot be ruled out. The only uncertainty is the extent of convective coverage since we are on the backside of the eastward moving shortwave and actually in shortwave ridging aloft. Will maintain 40-60% rain chances this afternoon for all but the far inland areas. Convection could still be ongoing along the southern half of the area early this evening, but this is expected to diminish by late evening.

Our attention then turns to another shortwave embedded in the northwest flow that will approach the area on Wednesday. Guidance varies a little bit on the timing of this wave (not uncommon for convective NW flow events), but in general it appears that it will enhance our storm chances from late Wednesday morning through early Wednesday evening. Our instability parameters are forecast to be very similar to what we have today. The addition of a better forcing mechanism appears to yield a better potential for strong wind gusts in some storms with a few storms potentially becoming severe. The lack of deep layer shear will likely preclude a more significant severe threat. However, we will be monitoring storms closely tomorrow for the strong wind gust potential. There will be another good chance of storms on Thursday as the aforementioned shortwave leaves a weakness in the upper ridge across our area. Just like today, a few storms with strong, gusty winds will be possible.

Given precipitable waters climbing back to around 2", we will have to monitor for locally heavy rainfall as the storms will be very efficient rain producers. We are not expecting widespread concerns, but given how saturated we are, we could see some localized flooding.

The upper ridge will expand across the southeast states Friday into early next week. We will see much lower storm chances in this period along with 100-105 degree heat indices for much of the area. Heat indices could approach Heat Advisory criteria (108 degrees) in some locations by next Monday. 34/JFB

Beach Forecast: A moderate risk of rip currents today will transition to a low risk through the rest of the week into the weekend. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR/MVFR conditions expected through the forecast. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and again late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Local drops in conditions to low/mid MVFR in the convection along with locally variable winds are possible in the stronger storms. Otherwise, west to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots are expected through the forecast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A light to moderate westerly flow today will transition to a light offshore flow tonight as a weak front moves over the coastal waters. This front will dissipate Wednesday into Wednesday night. A general light southwest flow is expected by late in the week into the weekend as high pressure becomes reestablished across the southwest Atlantic into the central Gulf. 34/JFB

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.