textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 735 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- HIGH risk for rip currents on Sunday through Monday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Strong marine winds are expected to develop late tonight and persist through Sunday with Small Craft Advisory conditions resulting in hazardous boating for any small craft.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A north to south oriented inverted surface trough across south- central Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle as of 00z will continue to advance westward this evening. This boundary will surge across the entire forecast area overnight and extend roughly from near Jackson, MS, south to near New Orleans, LA, just after sunrise on Sunday. A surge of deeper moisture behind this trough will help to alleviate the high fire danger that has existed over the region today.

Upper level troughing continues to dig southeast along the Southeast U.S. coast with strong surface high pressure building south to the lee of the Blue Ridge. As this occurs, flow around this surface high will become southeasterly late tonight into Sunday. This southeast flow will allow for enhanced moisture advection and isentropic ascent within the 900-800mb layer which should support the development of low clouds across coastal areas late tonight which should gradually spread inland on Sunday. Overcast skies should persist into Sunday early afternoon before daytime heating and mixing allows for stratus to lift and eventually become broken. The increased cloud cover should help to keep high temperatures cooler on Sunday, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s in most locations. /JLH

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Now through Saturday...

An upper level high over the Southern Plains shifts east and deamplifies through the weekend as a series of strong upper level shortwaves dive south over the northwestern Conus and move east over the northern half of the Conus. Surface high pressure over the northern/central Plains shifts east in response, to off the Eastern Seaboard, leaving surface ridge over the Southeast with a decent gradient and initially strong easterly flow over the northeastern Gulf. A cool and dryer airmass over the forecast area moderates and moistens in the coming week with the return of onshore flow. Rain returns to the forecast area in response, mainly mid week on. The advancing upper ridge and modest moisture return over the forecast area in the beginning of the week will keep the forecast dry over the forecast area. As moisture levels increase (precipitable h20 levels rise to around 1.6" by Wednesday over the forecast area), rain chances increase, with the best chance being Wednesday into Wednesday night as a strong upper level shortwave passes near the forecast area. Isolated to scattered rain chances remain possible Thursday into the coming weekend as the continued train of shortwave energy moving over the Conus moves the upper ridge off the Eastern Seaboard.

The near seasonal upper 60s to low 70s high temperatures today resulting from the front's passage earlier today rise back into the low to mid 80s by Monday (mid to upper 70s south of I-10) and remain there for the rest of the forecast. Low temperatures tonight in the around 50 to upper 50s tonight rise into the low to mid 60s by Tuesday night.

Post frontal offshore flow today shifts to southeast to easterly later tonight into Sunday, bringing increased swell to area beaches an upper moderate to high risk of dangerous rip currents Sunday into mid week. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A broken low level cloud deck will advect across the region later this evening but remain VFR at all TAF sites for most of the night. Winds will shift from northerly to easterly between 03z and 05z from east to west as an trough moves west. Speeds should remain elevated overnight between 8-12 kts.

After 12z Sunday, enhanced low level moisture advection and isentropic ascent should support the development of overcast decks between 3-4kft that will first develop near the coast and spread inland through Sunday morning. Ceilings should remain low end VFR at KMOB and KBFM, but there are increased probabilities in the development of MVFR cigs after 13z at KPNS and KJKA. This is reflected in the latest forecast. Winds will continue to veer southeasterly Sunday morning and remain in the 10-12 kts range, strongest near the coast. /JLH

MARINE

Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Strong offshore flow shifts to easterly, then southeasterly through the weekend into the coming week. This will maintain Exercise Caution to Small Craft conditions into Monday. Onshore flow becomes more organized, but remains more light to moderate Tuesday through the rest of the week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 55 75 59 79 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 59 70 63 75 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 56 70 62 74 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 49 71 54 82 / 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 50 75 55 81 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 50 70 55 79 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 51 73 56 81 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Sunday through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675.