textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 723 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to possible flash flooding will occur over the next several days.

- HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through at least Friday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 723 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Forecast remains on track; no updates needed. /96

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

There is a pattern change on the horizon but overall it will not affect our high rain chances for the remainder of the week through early next week. The upper ridge to our east marries up with a high pressure area over the northern plains to form an elongated ridge from Florida to south central Canada by noon Thursday. The ridge axis clips eastern and northern Alabama so we should see only scattered showers and storms across our south central Alabama zones on Thursday, but numerous coverage is still expected elsewhere. As quickly as the ridge builds it breaks down Thursday night and Friday as the upper trough over the northeast CONUS is reinforced by another shortwave diving south over eastern Canada. The upper trough to our west is finally able to break its grip over the southern plains and eject eastward over Mississippi and Alabama on Friday. The persistent southwesterly flow aloft will shift zonal over our area at the base of the trough and then northwesterly as the trough moves off to our east. After a brief shift back to zonal Sunday into Monday, a more established northwesterly to northerly flow will follow through the remainder of the forecast as a third shortwave dives south over eastern Canada and carves out a larger trough along the east coast.

As mentioned earlier, this pattern change will not have an affect our high rain chances as a continuous stream of upper shortwaves and impulses move over the region resulting in numerous to at times widespread showers and storms returning Friday through Monday north of I-10. Scattered to occasional numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected south of I-10. The highest rain chances will occur primarily during the afternoon hours with decreasing stability from diurnal heating. As mentioned on the previous discussion, a northwesterly flow pattern is capable of advecting in a any organized MCS's into our area if storms develop upstream, and we will need to be on the lookout for that.

Beach Forecast - The HIGH risk for rip currents has been extended through Friday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches due to a persistent onshore wind and unsettled sea state. Offshore storms will only act to amplify the surf and rip currents each day. /22

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail for most of the area. Light and variable winds accompany ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR around midnight with IFR visibility probabilities higher for southeast Alabama. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning through mid afternoon with MVFR ceilings/visibilities and localized IFR within the strongest storms. After these storms VFR conditions and light southwesterly winds will prevail. /SS

MARINE

Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Light onshore flow will persist for the remainder of the week shifting to a more westerly component early next week. Seas will generally be around 3 feet through Thursday and around 2 feet for the remainder of the forecast. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 85 70 84 / 30 60 20 70 Pensacola 73 84 73 84 / 30 60 10 50 Destin 73 84 73 84 / 30 50 20 40 Evergreen 69 86 69 85 / 20 50 20 80 Waynesboro 70 84 69 83 / 20 60 30 70 Camden 68 84 68 82 / 20 50 30 70 Crestview 69 87 69 87 / 20 60 20 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.