textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1117 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 - Summertime heat continues into early next week with heat indices as high as 103 to 108.

- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday through late week. A strong to severe thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1117 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Hot and dry weather conditions generally prevail across the area this weekend as upper ridging remains dominant overhead. Afternoon temperatures climb into the lower to middle 90's for most locations, with heat indices 100 to 105 range. A couple lucky spots might manage an afternoon storm, mainly nearer the coast today and tomorrow, but a vast majority of folks will remain dry this weekend.

As we head into next week, we gradually see a slight shift in upper ridging to be centered north of the area, putting us within an easterly flow regime aloft by Tuesday. This will open up the potential for some shortwaves to round the base of the ridge and bring substantially increased rain chances to the area Tuesday into late week. Lots of details to iron out of the evolution of these shortwaves, but the first noteworthy one transits the region Tuesday allowing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop. While shear will be fairly weak, somewhat drier air aloft owing to the nearby ridge may help set the stage for storms to have the potential for producing strong to damaging wind gusts. Details become murky after Tuesday on the progression of upper and lower level features off the southeast coast rounding the periphery of the ridge. Given deep easterly flow it stands to reason we'll continue to see an influx of tropical moisture and increased rain chances through mid to late week. We will likely see temperatures cool somewhat in response to the increased cloud cover and rain, with highs midweek in the upper 80's to lower 90's while overnight lows stay steady in the lower to middle 70's. Heat indices will likely remain on the warm side in the 100 to 107 range any given day next week just shy of heat advisory criteria. A Low risk of rip currents continues through next week. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region through Sunday. An isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out near the coast that could reduce flight category temporarily. Winds will largely remain out of the south to southwest today at 5 to 10 knots, becoming increasingly westerly tonight into Sunday around 5 knots. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1117 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A light southwesterly flow will prevail through tonight, becoming a diurnal pattern Sunday and Monday with light onshore flow during the afternoon hours and a light offshore flow each night. A light and variable flow is expected by midweek. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 94 75 96 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 79 94 78 95 / 0 10 0 10 Destin 79 92 79 93 / 10 0 0 10 Evergreen 73 94 74 95 / 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 75 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 74 91 74 92 / 0 10 0 0 Crestview 73 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.