textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Heavy rainfall potential sets up Thursday through the end of the week.

- A moderate rip current risk returns for the beaches of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Zonal flow aloft will gradually shift to a west-southwesterly flow by Thursday evening, with a series of upper level impulses traversing the region through the remainder of the week. A surface high pressure area east of the Mississippi River will gradually weaken through noon Thursday as it shifts eastward, while a low- level inverted trough sets up over the Texas coast into southern Louisiana. An impressive return of precipitable water (PWAT) will occur as we transition from around 0.2 inch PWAT this morning under a strong subsidence inversion, to range from 1.5-1.7 inches by Thursday evening. Slightly higher PWAT values are expected after midnight Thursday through noon Friday as we tap into an atmospheric river extended over the entire western Gulf into the northern Gulf. Likely to categorical precipitation chances (pops) for both Thursday and Friday remain unchanged. These high pops will likely occur on Saturday as well along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. There also remains a signal for modest probabilities for the potential of heavy rain over this period. Appropriately so, the southwestern portion of our forecast area remains in marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday, our entire area is outlooked on Friday, and areas along and southeast of the I-65 corridor is outlooked on Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches are forecast, with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. We will also closely monitor the trajectory of the surface low and attendant warm front/warm sector to determine if a potential exists for more surface based convection and the risk of strong storms. The entire system will exit the area near the end of the weekend, with a dry period returning through the middle of next week.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents today through Thursday night will increase to MODERATE on Friday, and is expected to drop back to LOW over the weekend. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Regional surface observations and satellite imagery are detecting solid ceiling ranging from 900-1400 feet over the entire area. Given the abundant moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion, these ceilings will persist through daybreak Wednesday. The clouds are expected to clear out by 15-18z Wednesday at the latest. /22

MARINE

Issued at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

No significant impacts to small craft are expected through the remainder of the week outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibilities associated with showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, light north to northeast winds today will shift northeasterly to easterly tonight and gradually increase through Thursday along with building seas. A series of low-level troughs and surface lows will move eastward over the area Thursday afternoon through the remainder of the week, bringing numerous to widespread showers along with embedded thunderstorms. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 57 42 53 45 / 0 40 90 80 Pensacola 58 47 55 50 / 0 30 80 80 Destin 59 47 58 51 / 0 20 70 70 Evergreen 58 37 53 43 / 0 10 80 80 Waynesboro 56 35 48 40 / 0 40 80 90 Camden 53 33 49 40 / 0 10 70 90 Crestview 59 38 53 45 / 0 10 70 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.