textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- High rain chances will be in place through the weekend and into early next week, especially over the western half of the forecast area.

- A conditional severe threat may materialize Friday morning. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

UPDATE

Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

This afternoon's convection has been firing over southeast Mississippi with residual storms over central Alabama moving off. The convection over Mississippi has been working with a pocket of better instability and shear, and has been showing signs of weakening as it moves east, and is expected to have a hard time staying together as it moves over southern Alabama. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft is expected to continue through the period as an active subtropical jet remains in place along and west of our local area. Several shortwaves, embedded within the subtropical jet, will quickly pass near/over the area over the next several days. With the shortwaves moving overhead, along with deep moisture in place (PWATs generally ranging around 1.7-2.0 inches) and strong destabilization occurring each day due to diurnal heating, shower and thunderstorm development is expected each day through the period. Highest rain chances look to occur during the late morning/afternoon hours each day, and best coverage looks to be over interior counties west of I-65 (due to the closer proximity to the subtropical jet).

It should be noted that guidance has trended a bit higher on shear values for late tonight and into tomorrow morning as a more stout shortwave passes overhead and a 30-40kt LLJ develops. If storms are able to fire by or a little after daybreak (when the best overlap of the LLJ and instability looks to occur), there may be a brief, yet conditional, window where severe storms may be possible. Storms that are able to organize may be mini-spinny in nature due to weak storm relative inflow, moist boundary-layer conditions, and curved low- level hodographs, and therefore, cannot rule out a few brief spin- ups generally between the 6AM-12PM timeframe. The LLJ should begin to lift out of the area during the afternoon hours, helping to reduce the tornado risk throughout the day.

Outside of tomorrow morning's potential, the potential for organized severe weather lessens as shear profiles weaken. With limited shear, storms will become more pulse-like in nature. That being said, as we typically see with this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as frequent lightning. It should be noted that the slow-moving nature of these storms, as well as the deep moisture in place, may lead to storms being efficient rainfall producers. If a few storms manage to train over the same areas, cannot rule out some localized flooding concerns. Highs each day will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be very mild and humid, with temperatures only dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s inland and the low to mid 70s closer to the coast. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will be in place through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

An area of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Mississippi is bringing MVFR conditions with local IFR conditions in the stronger storms. For the rest of the area, VFR with local MVFR conditions were noted. Southerly winds around 10 knots were noted area wide. This convection is expected to decrease in the evening hours as the day's heating is lost. More convection is expected to develop closer to sunrise, with MVFR conditions dropping to IFR in the storms. /16

MARINE

Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through this weekend and into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 83 72 86 / 70 80 30 70 Pensacola 74 83 74 85 / 40 80 30 60 Destin 75 83 74 84 / 20 50 30 30 Evergreen 71 84 70 86 / 30 80 40 70 Waynesboro 70 82 69 86 / 60 90 60 80 Camden 69 82 70 85 / 50 90 40 70 Crestview 71 85 71 87 / 20 50 30 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.