textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 549 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Dense fog is expected tonight, reducing visibilities to below 1/4 of a mile over land areas and below 1 mile over marine zones. Use extra time and caution when traveling tonight and Wednesday morning.

- A strong system could bring gusty winds, and a few strong storms Saturday night into Sunday.

- Much above normal temperatures will occur Monday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Overall, weather will be rather benign with warm conditions through the first half of the forecast before a stronger system arrives Saturday night into Sunday. The only precip through the work week looks to arrive tomorrow into tomorrow night as a subtle shortwave trough moves across the area. A line of weak showers is expected to move across the northern parts of the area late Wednesday night as a weak front pushes through the area. The biggest issue will be the dense fog ahead of this system as dewpoints will continue to climb into the 60s. Couple this with cold Gulf waters and you have a recipe for sea fog to develop across much of the southern half of the area tonight. The only caveat is that winds just above the surface may be too strong, especially inland, for fog to develop. However, given the setup and overall ensemble probabilities of dense fog, we went with another dense fog advisory for mainly coastal counties tonight.

Behind this system, we will begin to reload as upper ridging builds over the eastern US in advance of our next system. Temperatures will be mild with highs climbing back into the 70s by the beginning of the weekend as southerly flow begins to develop. Moisture will begin to surge northward as a stout upper shortwave moves into the area Saturday night into Sunday. This is where most of our attention will go towards as this system has the signs of potentially packing a punch. At a minimum, we should expect a round of showers and storms to move through sometime Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. This will also likely be coupled with some gusty winds as a strong surface low moves across the southern states. Looking at some of the analog guidance certainly points to the potential for a period of strong to severe storms with this system. The main question will be how much instability could we muster given the cold Gulf waters and weak return flow in the days prior. Timing of the system will also play a role in how much instability we can get. IF we trend towards more instability than concerns for strong to severe storms, especially along the coast will increase. Given the potential for numerous outdoor activities ongoing across the area Sunday, it would be best to keep a close eye on the forecast the next couple days as we begin to hone in on potential impacts from this system. Luckily it is still roughly 6 days out and we have plenty of time to watch it. BB-8

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Dense fog returns tonight with LIFR and VLIFR conditions expected late tonight into Wednesday morning in dense fog. Conditions slowly improve Wednesday morning to MVFR with VFR conditions returning by late morning into the afternoon. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1212 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Light to at times moderate onshore flow will become offshore for a short period Wednesday into Thursday as a weak front sags south across area waters. Development of dense fog is expected over near shore and protected waters tonight into Wednesday. Onshore flow returns by the Saturday and strengthens to moderate to strong over the weekend as a system approaches from the west. Small craft advisories will be needed this weekend and gusts to gale force may be possible Sunday across the offshore marine waters. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 57 76 52 72 / 0 20 10 0 Pensacola 59 74 54 69 / 10 20 10 0 Destin 60 71 54 67 / 10 20 10 0 Evergreen 57 76 47 70 / 10 30 10 0 Waynesboro 56 75 46 69 / 10 20 0 0 Camden 57 74 44 68 / 20 30 10 0 Crestview 57 77 50 72 / 10 20 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ059-060-261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ630>636-650-655.