textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Rain chances increase today, with numerous to widespread showers and storms expected Friday through the weekend. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding.

- A High risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Low-level southeasterly flow is now established across the area, transporting Gulf moisture inland. An upper low over the Southern Plains is expected to open into a positively tilted trough, while mid-level ridging builds over the Southeast. This will promote increasing southeasterly flow aloft which will help deepen moisture across the area. This moisture return will lead to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity today, beginning offshore and along the coast this morning before shifting inland by afternoon. Coverage today looks generally scattered (40-50% PoPs) with lower coverage north of Highway 84. Any storms may produce brief heavy downpours. Highs will remain above average, climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s.

The main story remains the heavy rainfall and flood threat developing Friday and continuing through the weekend. As the positively tilted upper trough weakens, deep tropical moisture is expected to begin pooling ahead of a slow-moving front approaching from the northwest. Low-level convergence along a broad inverted surface trough extending southwest to northeast across the northern Gulf Coast will lead to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, with the Saturday and Sunday being the wettest days for our area. Friday's round of showers and storms will likely a bit more brief, but locally heavy rainfall will still be possible as PWATs surge to around 2.3 inches by afternoon.

PWAT values then approach 2.4-2.5 inches for Saturday and Sunday, placing them above the 99th percentile for early October climatology. This environment will support efficient warm-rain processes and locally intense rainfall rates. The primary concern is for multiple rounds of widespread rain with embedded convection that could train over the same areas. While the timing and location of the heaviest rain remains uncertain, current forecast totals from Friday through Sunday range from 3-6 inches across the southern half of the area, with a general 2-3 inches over the interior. Localized totals of 6-9 inches cannot be ruled out near the coast if training convection sets up. This could lead to flash flooding, especially for urban and poor-drainage areas. The WPC has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall for Saturday and Sunday to reflect this threat.

The cold front will likely push through the area between late Sunday and early next week, but uncertainty is high regarding how fast the front pushes offshore and how far offshore it will get before stalling. This would have implications on rain chances for next week. Regardless, persistent clouds, rain, and the expected frontal passage will hold daytime temperatures below normal this weekend and beyond. Highs over the weekend are currently forecast in the low to mid 80s, through some locations may struggle to rise out of the 70s.

At the beaches, moderate onshore flow will maintain a High risk of life-threatening rip currents today through Sunday, decreasing to a Moderate risk for Monday. JGC/98

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Expect prevailing VFR conditions for early this morning. Will begin to see isolated -SHRA across mainly marine waters, becoming more numerous around/after daybreak and thru mid-morning, moving inland late morning into the afternoon. Have introduced best timing/coverage for Prob30's for area TAF sites but generally expect passing showers at any point during the day today through the evening hours. Main impacts will be brief reductions in flight categories from periodic reduced VIS/CIGs but expecting VFR outside of any SHRA activity. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow develops on Thursday and continues through Saturday. Winds decrease early next week. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the Saturday. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 89 73 86 72 / 40 30 80 50 Pensacola 87 76 85 75 / 50 50 70 70 Destin 87 75 84 75 / 50 40 70 70 Evergreen 91 67 88 68 / 40 10 70 50 Waynesboro 91 69 89 69 / 40 10 60 30 Camden 91 68 90 69 / 20 10 60 40 Crestview 90 69 86 69 / 50 10 80 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.