textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 656 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through tonight. Surf heights up to 5 feet are expected, creating rough surf on area beaches.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft into Wednesday.

- A cold front will move through the area late Wednesday, with a few periods of rainshowers and thunderstorms across the area. The threat for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

UPDATE

Issued at 656 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Overall forecast remains on track this evening. Light showers continue to push across south central Alabama this evening, along with a more light to moderate band of showers moving into coastal Alabama from the Gulf. Overall, this activity should remain relatively benign throughout the evening/overnight hours as these showers slowly propagate northeast ahead of the main line of showers and storms that is approaching from the west. That being said, VAD profiles from both KMOB and KEVX suggest that there is sufficient veering in the winds in the lowest kilometer. Mesoscale analysis also suggests that a marine front, which is helping to separate limited instability to its north from a much more unstable airmass to its south, is located just off the coastline. This boundary is also helping to generate sufficient surface vorticity across the northern Gulf. Radar over the past hour or so has suggested that some of these showers moving in from the Gulf are exhibiting some broad rotation, which quickly weaken once they cross the boundary and push inland. Although the overall severe risk remains low this evening/tonight, the favorable environment out over the Gulf could promote the development of waterspouts as these showers approach the coast. If the marine boundary is able to move onshore, would not be surprised to see one or two waterspouts briefly come ashore before dissipating. Will keep a close eye on radar trends throughout the night. /96

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Through Thursday, an upper low moving east over the northern/central Plains with a trough stretching south over the southern Plains contends with an upper ridge over the eastern Conus and another upper low that develops off the East Coast through Wednesday. As the Plains system pushes east, the upper ridge deflects the main part of the system northeast. Guidance is advertising the trough south of the main system taking a negative tilt as it moves over the Lower Mississippi River Valley to over the Southeast, but with the northeast deflection of the main system, the better enhancement of the dynamics also gets deflected generally north of us here on the northern Gulf coast. Timing of this system is more consistent than previous days, with the initial rainshowers and thunderstorms developing on the north-central Gulf coast Tuesday afternoon. Overnight Tuesday night, we have MLCapes of 800-1300J/kg along with EBWD shear around 35kts. Guidance is advertising an 850mb passing over the western half of the Southeast, with the strongest part of the jet being over the northern part of the region and Tennessee River Valley. The jet is strong enough for guidance to advertise Tds increasing into the low 70s into Wednesday. Guidance is advertising 0-1km helicities > 100m^s/2^s over areas north of Highway 84 overnight. All in all, there is a low chance of rowdy storms Tuesday night. Low, but feel not zero. Wind damage, maybe a spinner, are the primary threats. Mid level lapse rates are low (helped by the instability limiting mid level height falls being very, very limited over the northern Gulf Coast), so the chance of large hail is expected to be small. Timing is soon after sunset over western portions of the forecast area moving to near the Tombigbee River by sunrise Wednesday. Heading into Wednesday, the increased dewpoints help instability to rise a bit (MLCapes rising into the 1000-1500J/kg range), but with the upper dynamics moving off, the better wind shear and upper support moves east or northeast, respectively, of the forecast area. A slowing cold front begins moving across the forecast area Wednesday, providing the oomph for another round of rainshowers and thunderstorms, with the better coverage being over northern and eastern portion of the forecast area. The risk of rowdy storms decreases though the morning as the instability and upper dynamics separate. Still a possibility, though, with wind damage the primary threat. Will continue to monitor. As of this writing, SPC has placed the forecast area under a general thunder coverage for Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Later Wednesday through Friday night, the weakening cold front stalls over the forecast area Wednesday evening. The wind shift in the guidance places the front stalling roughly along I-65. So far, using the dew point front as a guide, drier air approaches the northwestern quarter of the forecast area by Thursday evening, but stalling. Comparing the deterministic and ensembles, there continues to be inconsistency. Another upper level shortwave trough passes north of the forecast area Friday, with the front moving south of the forecast area by Friday evening, and cooler, drier airmass beings to move over the forecast area for the weekend.

There is consistency in temperatures remain above seasonal norms through Friday. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s expected. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s tonight fall into the around 50 northwest of low 60s near the coast Thursday night with the decrease in low level southerly flow over the north-central Gulf coast combined with clearing skies. Behind the front, low temperatures drop into the upper 40s north of Highway 84 to mid 50s south of I-10 expected Friday night.

Saturday through the Tuesday, guidance is advertising another upper system approaching the Southeast. Handling of this system is very inconsistent in the guidance, with some advertising the system getting caught in an upper ridge that has built north west of the Rockies and stalling over the Southern Plains, whilst others advertise the upper system getting caught in a mean upper trough digging south over the eastern Conus and moving off. The current forecast is based upon the upper system moving over the Southeast as it gets caught in the upper rough, bringing a reinforcing short of cooler, drier northerly airmass to the forecast. Temperatures drop to below seasonal norms for Sunday and Monday, with a dry forecast indicated. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A tricky night of flying ahead. Most areas along the Gulf Coast are hovering around VFR and MVFR categories with brief periods of lower categories possible owing to scattered showers passing over any given TAF site. As the night progresses, ceilings are expected to lower towards IFR to LIFR in some spots as fog builds in from southwest to northeast. A line of isolated showers looks to push through after midnight prompting light and variable winds to shift southwestward. Sometime after sunrise fog will give way to another day of scattered to broken VFR to MVFR ceilings.

KL/31

MARINE

Issued at 1204 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow continues today. Winds will shift southeasterly to southerly tonight as a system approaches the area. Winds weaken to a light southerly flow Wednesday, becoming a light and variable flow Thursday into Friday as a cold front stalls north of the coast Wednesday night. Winds shift out of the north, becoming light to moderate late Friday night into the weekend as the cold front moves south over area waters. Seas of 5 to 6 feet today gradually decrease through mid-week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 83 63 82 / 20 30 30 10 Pensacola 70 81 68 80 / 50 20 0 20 Destin 71 80 69 80 / 70 40 10 20 Evergreen 64 83 61 81 / 60 60 30 40 Waynesboro 64 81 53 81 / 20 40 10 10 Camden 64 80 59 77 / 70 70 30 10 Crestview 67 83 64 82 / 70 50 0 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.