textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 - Heat Advisory today for the entire area for Heat index values up to 110. Hot and humid conditions continue through the remainder of the week.

- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this afternoon and a strong or severe storm is possible during the afternoon and early evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A strong upper level ridge will strengthen slightly today as it shifts north this afternoon. This will maintain dry and hot conditions through most of the day. Highs in the mid and upper 90s combined with high humidity will create heat index values of 108-110 in many areas by late morning into the early afternoon. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire area today. Something to watch out for is if convection develops faster than currently forecast some areas may not reach criteria. By mid to late afternoon, an easterly flow will develop on the south side of the upper ridge. A strong shortwave in this flow is expected to generate a cluster of showers and storms to our east which will move west across the area during the late afternoon and early evening. Some enhanced mid level flow along with strong destabilization will support some storm organization and the potential of a few stronger storms. Damaging winds will be the main threat along with frequent lightning. SPC has the entire area in a marginal risk. Storms will dissipate quickly after sunset due to loss of daytime heating.

For the remainder of the week, we remain generally under deep layer easterly flow with the ridge centered just north of us. This will continue to promote isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day while highs continue to top out in the lower to middle 90s. Overnight lows stay warm throughout the forecast period in the lower to middle 70s. A Low risk of rip currents continues through this week. /13

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a light northerly flow developing on Tuesday. A round of thunderstorms moving from east to west is likely (50-70%) Tuesday afternoon, with greatest chances along and east of I-65. A few stronger storms may briefly drop visibilities to IFR or lower and produce wind gusts in excess of 40 knots. A more refined timing window for the storms remains too uncertain to determine at this time. /98

MARINE

Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A light offshore flow today will briefly become a light to occasionally moderate easterly to southeasterly flow tonight into Wednesday. A light diurnal pattern returns for late week, with onshore flow expected during the afternoon hours, and offshore flow expected at night. Otherwise, no impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms today and Wednesday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 98 75 93 75 / 40 30 40 0 Pensacola 96 78 93 78 / 60 30 20 0 Destin 92 79 92 79 / 50 30 20 0 Evergreen 95 74 94 73 / 60 30 10 0 Waynesboro 97 76 95 75 / 20 20 30 10 Camden 95 75 92 74 / 30 30 20 0 Crestview 96 75 95 74 / 60 30 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.