textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated on Sunday. A few may become strong and produce gusty winds.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A couple of loosely organized mesoscale systems currently moving across the Natchez Trace near Jackson, MS, continue to move southeast towards the forecast area. These systems should reach the western fringes of the forecast area in 2-3 hours. Ground truth so far has been 30-35kts, and am expected to remain at these levels as they move southeast along an instability gradient over southeast Mississippi. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

An upper ridge building into the region looks to support dry conditions for Monday. An MCS approaching from the west overnight weakens in response to encountering the developing upper ridge, though looks to bring isolated to scattered convection into southeast Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama during the early to late morning hours on Sunday. A weak frontal boundary also settles into the area on Sunday and am anticipating that isolated to scattered convection will manage to develop over much of the area during the afternoon hours in response. A few strong storms are possible with gusty winds as the main threat. A large positively tilted upper trof will be in place over the western and north central states on Sunday, then an embedded system ejects off across the Great Lakes region through Sunday night. A broad upper trof pattern evolves over much of the northern states by Tuesday, with the upper ridge over the forecast area meanwhile weakening and being deflected off to the east. The upper trof becomes oriented mostly over the interior eastern states by Thursday. A series of shortwaves move across the forecast region in the process, and a surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area mainly from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. With the series of shortwaves moving across the area and the frontal passage, have gone with slight chance to chance pops over interior areas on Tuesday increasing to chance to likely pops by Wednesday night. May see some strong storms develop mainly from Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, but otherwise shear values look to remain generally low.

A series of shortwaves continue to move across the forecast region Thursday into Friday, with the frontal boundary meanwhile drifting back into the forecast area. There is a lot of uncertainty past this point, with the potential for a Gulf surface low to pass nearby the forecast area roughly on Saturday. Have for now continued with mostly chance pops for Thursday and Friday, then chance pops follow for Saturday and will continue to evaluate. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Sunday through Thursday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

General VFR conditions over the forecast area will see local drops in CIGs/VISBYs to MVFR levels due to another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning into this afternoon with local drops to low end MVFR levels possible. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through Wednesday. Winds become northerly Wednesday night as a cold front moves through, then gradually transition to a predominately easterly flow for Friday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 86 65 85 67 / 40 20 0 0 Pensacola 83 67 81 69 / 20 10 0 0 Destin 80 68 81 69 / 20 10 10 0 Evergreen 88 61 90 62 / 20 10 10 10 Waynesboro 85 63 89 65 / 40 20 10 10 Camden 84 62 87 64 / 10 10 10 10 Crestview 89 61 89 62 / 20 10 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.