textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Strong to severe storms are possible early this morning as a complex of storms rolls across the northern Gulf. Gusty winds are the main concern.

- Flash flooding remains a concern over the next several days, especially west of I-65, with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk continues today through Memorial Day for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The risk increases to HIGH Monday night through at least mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to overspread the area through daybreak. A line of strong thunderstorms is approaching southwest Alabama over the next hour or two, with an MCV trailing behind it. This complex will continue to traverse the area, bringing with it moderate to heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Observed VAD hodographs are small and curved, with just enough shear and SRH to support a low end tornado threat in any mini spinnies (small supercells) that develop. While rain rates are not particularly impressive at the moment, any supercells or training storms will pose a problem for locally higher rain rates in excess of 2" per hour. If this sets up over the spots that have had problems the past couple days, then flash flooding could become a concern in the coming hours. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

There's not much activity on radar across our area as of 06z, however, our eyes are on the convective complex to our west that is rolling across the northern Gulf. Most of the CAMs are not handling the future evolution of this complex very well as many of the models show the complex falling apart over the next few hours. Our current thinking is that this complex will hold together and make it into our local area, as there are no environmental cues that indicate that this batch of storms will fall apart. Cloud tops continue to cool, even as the storms skirt across the southernmost parishes in Louisiana. Based on the current trajectory, if the storms hold together and move inland, the storms will likely reach our southeast Mississippi counties between 08-09z and our coastal Alabama counties by 09-10z. Based on what we are seeing upstream, expect gusty winds with the potential for a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Marine Warnings as this complex rolls across a portion of the area. We have less of a concern with flooding given the forward progression of the complex, however, any additional rainfall in central Mobile County this morning will be a problem given the saturated soils from storms over the past 36 hours.

A wet pattern will persist through the week as the area remains on the western periphery of a ridge over the western Atlantic. Deep onshore flow continues with PWATs surging to over 2.0 inches at times throughout the week. Multiple subtle shortwaves will ride through the flow aloft, providing ample ascent for the development of showers and storms each day. Heavy rainfall will be the predominant concern, although we cannot rule out a few strong to potentially severe storms with gusty downburst winds each afternoon. Storms will be capable of quickly dropping 1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time over the next few days. Overall, we currently have an additional 3-5 inches of rain in the forecast (mainly west of I-65) through the holiday weekend and into the week, but in reality, we could see those amounts fall in a day if storms repeatedly move over the same locations. The recent HREF localized probability-matched mean (LPMM) shows a bullseye of 7-10 inches of rain across our southeast Mississippi counties with 3-5 inches across Mobile County on Monday alone, which would be problematic from a flooding standpoint (to say the least). Given the significant flooding on Friday in central Mobile County and the very saturated soils, that area in particular will be highly susceptible to additional flash flooding in the coming days.

Beach Forecast - Risk for rip currents is MODERATE through Memorial Day, but quickly increases to a HIGH risk Monday night through at least the middle of the week. 07/mb

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

MVFR to IFR flight category is expected to prevail across the forecast area through the rest of tonight into the morning hours, with MVFR ceilings likely lingering through much of the day Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms may become more prevalent prior to daybreak as a large complex of storms moves in from the southwest. This activity should relax mid to late morning, with another round during the afternoon into early evening hours. Temporary reductions in flight category can be expected with any showers or storms. Winds will remain generally out of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots through the day Monday. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly flow will continue to prevail into early next week. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet through Monday afternoon, increasing to 3 to 4 feet Monday night into Tuesday. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 84 71 82 72 / 90 70 90 70 Pensacola 85 74 82 74 / 50 60 90 70 Destin 85 74 83 75 / 40 30 80 70 Evergreen 86 70 82 70 / 80 60 90 50 Waynesboro 80 69 80 69 / 90 60 100 60 Camden 83 68 80 69 / 80 50 90 60 Crestview 89 71 84 71 / 60 40 90 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT early this morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT early this morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.