textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday, with periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding. Any stronger storms will also be capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

- A High risk of rip currents develops along the Northwest Florida beaches this evening through Tuesday. A Moderate risk continues for the remainder of area beaches through Thursday.

- Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the triple digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Through Wednesday...an upper level low organizes over the Southeast, with a surface low organizing over central Ms/Al. With a very moist airmass over the region (precipitable h20 values above 2") scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with the higher PoPs north of Highway 84. With a focusing surface boundary organizing on the west side of the surface low (somewhere over central Ms/Al), along with southwesterly mid/upper levels flow, the risk of flooding issues increases. Instability is modest at best (MLCapes topping out around 1000J/kg on average), along with an 850mb jet over the forecast area and coast (around 30kts), bringing a limited possibility of strong to severe storms. By Wednesday, the center of upper low has shifted west of the Southeast. Guidance is advertising a drier airmass moving north over the northern Gulf coast. Rain chances decrease over the forecast area with the decrease in moisture, though highest PoPs still remain over the northern half of the forecast area. The usual afternoon inland/ night time along the coast and over the Gulf pattern returns for the convection.

Looking at temperatures, below seasonal high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s Monday and Tuesday rise into the upper 80s to around 90 for Wednesday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast, are expected through Wednesday night. Heat indices rise to around 100 for Wednesday.

Thursday through the weekend...guidance continues to advertise shortwave energy meandering around over the Southeast. Drier air continues to push over the Southeast for Thursday and Friday, dropping the PoPs a bit more. Over the weekend, the region sees an uptick in moisture levels as an upper trough organizes over the region. PoPs increase in response. Some guidance is advertising temperatures rising to above seasonal norms, whilst other keep temperatures a bit below. Going with a compromise around seasonal, when combined with the increase in moisture levels, heat indices over the weekend rise into the 100-107 range over most of the forecast area, with some localities seeing higher values.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a moderate to strong southwest to westerly flow combined with a large tidal range will create a Moderate to High Rip Risk, with a higher risk on our Florida beaches. The Rip Risk will ease by the end of the week to a Low as the onshore flow decreases and tidal cycles shrinks. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region for the time being. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will likely from near the coast prior to daybreak, gradually spreading inland throughout the day. MVFR ceilings will likely settle in by mid to late morning for much of the area as storms increase in coverage. Expect reductions in flight category to or below IFR underneath any showers and storms. Winds will generally remain out of the west at 5 to 10 knots for most locations, with 10 to 15 knots near the coast. Winds could gust to near 20 knots outside of storms near the coast late morning into the afternoon hours, with higher gusts underneath any storms. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A coastal jet organizing along the coast Monday into Monday night will bring a moderate to strong southwesterly flow mainly to open Gulf waters later today into this evening. The upper system causing this will move off to the west, bring a light to at times moderate flow, with a daytime onshore, night time offshore regime returning to area waters. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 88 72 91 / 20 60 30 30 Pensacola 74 89 76 92 / 40 50 40 30 Destin 76 89 78 90 / 50 50 50 30 Evergreen 69 86 69 89 / 40 70 30 30 Waynesboro 70 86 70 89 / 50 70 30 40 Camden 70 83 70 86 / 60 90 30 50 Crestview 70 88 70 91 / 40 60 20 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.