textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 324 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday, with periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding. Any stronger storms will also be capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

- A High risk of rip currents develops along the Northwest Florida beaches this evening through Tuesday. A Moderate risk continues for the remainder of area beaches through Thursday.

- Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the triple digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

A highly positively-tilted upper trough continues to sag south across the Tennessee Valley and is forecast to gradually close off into a broad upper low through tonight. A pronounced surface reflection is evident via surface obs and visible satellite with a broad circulation drifting south into central Tennessee. Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture continues to increase across the northern Gulf Coast, where low-level convergence has resulted in rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and localized gusty winds. This activity continues to shift inland through the afternoon along the seabreeze/outflow boundary. Redevelopment has also been noted along the coast due to residual outflow boundary interactions. Moderate instability and very moist profiles aloft may support a few marginally severe storms this afternoon, with damaging wind gusts being the primary concern. In addition, any training or slow-moving storms may continue to cause localized flooding concerns through the afternoon.

Heading into Monday and Tuesday, height falls associated with southward-moving upper low, combined with a persistent convergence zone over the nearshore Gulf early Monday morning, will support another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms, particularly near the coast during the morning hours and spreading inland once again for the afternoon. With deep moisture in place (PWATs up to around 2.3 inches), storms will continue to be efficient rainfall producers, which may lead to localized flash flooding. The WPC continues to outlook locations along and south of I-10 in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for the remainder of the area. The Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall continues for Tuesday as the upper low continues to slowly drift south, likely as far south as central Alabama. Thus, coverage of showers and storms will remain numerous to widespread for Tuesday, especially over the interior. We anticipate a general 1-3 inches of rainfall across the forecast area from this afternoon through Tuesday with isolated higher amounts of up to 4 inches possible.

Rain chances finally begin to diminish on Wednesday as the upper low retrogrades westward and upper ridging attempts to build over the northern Gulf through late week. Thus, a more typical summertime pattern is anticipated through the remainder of the week, with more isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms and a return to hotter conditions. Highs rebounding into the low to mid 90s along with lingering humidity will support afternoon heat indices well into the triple digits for Wednesday through the end of the week.

Increasing westerly flow over marine zones will lead to a High risk of rip currents for our Florida beaches from this evening through Tuesday. A Moderate risk of rip currents continues for the remainder of the Alabama and western Florida Panhandle beaches through Thursday. JGC/98

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

With widespread morning shra/tsra over the immediate coastal terminals of JKA/PNS having dissipated, there is low confidence of additional shra/tsra for these sites this afternoon outside of being isolated. Coverage of shra/tsra look to primarily increase along and north of I-10 this afternoon where a moist and unstable environment resides. Albeit brief, lowering cigs to MVFR categories/restrictions to vsby possibly to IFR/as low as LIFR will be likely in any +tsra. Hazards to approaches and departures in an near convection will be brief strong and variable wind gusts. Otherwise, winds light. /10

MARINE

Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Light to moderate southerly to southwesterly flow continues today, becoming a moderate westerly flow Monday. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for Monday afternoon given increasing potential for 20- 25 knot winds with locally higher gusts. Light to occasionally moderate westerly flow prevails for Tuesday through the remainder of the week. Seas remain 2 to 3 feet through today, increasing to 3-5 feet on Monday afternoon, decreasing back to 2-3 feet for the remainder of the week. Expect higher winds and seas with any thunderstorms through mid week, with greatest coverage of storms each morning over the marine waters. A few waterspouts cannot be ruled out near the coast. JGC/98

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 85 71 87 / 40 80 40 60 Pensacola 77 86 74 88 / 50 70 50 60 Destin 78 87 76 87 / 60 70 70 60 Evergreen 72 85 69 86 / 60 80 40 80 Waynesboro 72 86 70 86 / 60 60 40 70 Camden 72 85 69 84 / 60 80 70 80 Crestview 73 86 70 88 / 50 80 50 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for GMZ631-632- 650-655-670-675.