textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 918 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- A strong storm or two can't be ruled Monday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Locally heavy rainfall may also be possible along the immediate coastline.

- Dry weather and above normal high temperatures return to the forecast mid to late week.

UPDATE

Issued at 918 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Dense fog advisory has expired and zones updated to remove headlines. Remainder of near-term forecast remains on track. /10

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

One last shot of heavy rain and strong storms will be possible on Monday before a pattern switch brings our first real taste of summer by the weekend. Our final system arrives today as a shortwave trough ejects across the deep south. Rather stout upper diffluence will quickly move across the area during the late afternoon and evening hour and storms will likely form along a boundary draped from west to east across the area. Looking at forecast soundings and there is certainly the potential for a few stronger storms with hail and possibly a damaging wind gust or two as the primary threats. Low level shear is rather paltry, but modest deep layer shear around 40 knots could support some organized clusters and potentially a transient supercell or two as storms begin during the afternoon. The severe threat should not last long as storms cluster and impinge upon each other. Deep moist profiles generally tend to not be supportive of large hail; however, weak storm relative inflows, decent instability within the hail growth zone could support an instance or two of severe hail (1 inch or greater) in any transient supercellular structures that do develop. Damaging winds could also be possible if any organized clusters that do develop and are able to mix down stronger mid-level winds. On-top of the low end potential for some strong to severe storms, heavy rainfall will be possible. PWATS will be in the 1.8 to 2 inch range and with plenty of instability, some heavier rainfall rates could be possible leading to localized flooding concerns. The greatest concern will likely be along the immediate coastline where ensemble means are in the 2 to 4 inch range with some locally higher pockets. IF these higher pockets occur over poor drainage urban areas along the coast then some localized flooding may occur. Luckily even with all the rain we have had we are still in a rather significant drought which is likely keeping us from more significant flooding concerns.

By Monday night the upper shortwave will quickly move east ushering in a significantly drier pattern by midweek. Upper ridging will strengthen over the central US leading to dry northwesterly flow to develop through the remainder of the week. This upper ridge will flatten out and shift eastward with time leading to a gradual warmup through the weekend as highs top out in the 90s by Saturday and Sunday. Rain will be hard to come by for the foreseeable future and our first real taste of the upcoming summer will be upon us by early next week. BB-8

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Dense fog has developed over portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama this morning, helping to reduce visibilities and ceilings to VLIFR. This fog is expected to dissipate over the next one to two hours, with VFR conditions returning for the late morning/early afternoon hours. Rain chances are expected to increase by the late afternoon and into the evening hours as a front pushes through the area. These showers and storms will likely bring visibility reductions to MVFR, or possibly IFR in some of the heavier activity. Rain should gradually decrease during the overnight hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A light onshore flow persists through today before winds turn westerly then northerly late this afternoon and evening behind a cold front. Winds briefly increase Monday night before a light easterly to northeasterly flow develops on Tuesday. Winds become variable, primarily offshore flow, by mid-week before shifting back to onshore flow Friday. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 86 65 85 64 / 60 40 0 0 Pensacola 84 68 83 68 / 60 50 10 0 Destin 83 69 82 70 / 40 40 20 10 Evergreen 85 62 85 62 / 30 20 0 0 Waynesboro 82 60 83 60 / 40 10 0 0 Camden 81 60 82 60 / 40 10 0 0 Crestview 88 65 87 63 / 50 40 20 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.