textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 - A mix of rain and light snow is possible for portions of the area late tonight through early Sunday morning, mainly east of the I-65 corridor.

- Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

- A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Monday night into early Tuesday morning as wind chills fall into the upper teens to middle 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Isolated to scattered showers will continue to gradually overspread the area this afternoon into this evening. A gee whiz sighting of a sleet pellet or two can't be ruled out at the onset of precipitation late this afternoon into this evening after some virga earlier in the day. The thermal profile based on forecast soundings show moist mid levels over top very dry low levels, with wetbulb temperatures below freezing between 925 and 850mb potentially being just enough to allow for falling precip into that cool layer to allow for water droplets to freeze prior to reaching the surface. Any falling sleet pellets will be quick to melt given warm low level temps, so if you're lucky you might see a couple sleet pellets with any of the heavier showers that move overhead into early evening prior to the column moistening up.

As we head into the mid to late evening hours all eyes turn towards what will happen with precipitation overnight into early Sunday morning. Forecast guidance has followed the usual cadence we see with overrunning systems the past few days, going from having precip over the area for overnight Saturday night on deterministic and ensemble guidance 4 to 5 days ago, then to significantly suppressing any precipitation chances 3 days out, to now featuring precipitation back into most of the area. This is something we see across the board in nearly all overrunning and warm advection setups where guidance struggles with depicting the northwestern extent of the precipitation shield and likewise the northern/northwestern extent of warm, moist air. With that said, I anticipate there to be some additional shifts northward with the overall extent of precipitation. But what does that mean for the snow potential? Well, with warmer and moister air being pushed in earlier and further inland that makes it more difficult for the cool, dry air to work its way into the area. This is particularly the case given we won't have the cold, dry thermal profiles through the entire atmospheric column in place to support wintry precipitation for a large chunk of the event. Instead what we end up with is a cold rain to start and perhaps some gee whiz sleet pellets (see first paragraph), with our only hope of any meaningful wintry precipitation coming from either 1) The arctic cold front moving in quicker, but cutting into total liquid equivalent amounts or 2) dynamic cooling processes that barely get our thermal profile to support a changeover to a mix of wet snow and rain. If option 1 happens, we may change over to snow/rain mix or all snow quicker and further northwest, but the dry air would be quicker to eat away at available moisture and limit any accumulations to a dusting on elevated surfaces. If option 2 happens, we eventually transition over to a rain/snow mix for a few hours, perhaps even all snow near the very end of the precipitation for an hour or two, but it ends up being this wet mess with very low snow to liquid ratios. This would likely limit any meaningful accumulations of less than a half inch to only elevated surfaces, and even that may be generous considering most the area stays above freezing the entire event and most surfaces will be pretty wet prior to the changeover, similarly cutting into any snowfall accumulation. As of right now option 2 appears to be the most probable to happen, with any accumulation chances of less than a half inch on elevated surfaces focused east of the I-65 corridor in our south- central Alabama counties. Regardless, this is anticipated to be a non-impactful event for the area at this time.

So could we see a scenario play out that brings a more meaningful chance for snow and accumulations? Maybe, but it's pretty unlikely at this point. HREF probabilities for even seeing greater than a tenth of an inch of snow accumulation are pretty low, around 20 to 30% at this time, with even lower probabilities looking at half inch and one inch thresholds. It's a bit hard to get a setup like this to work out when the cold air is seemingly chasing the precipitation. It's not impossible to get something appreciable through dynamic cooling processes, particularly if the transition process is quick, but our main problem is longevity of precipitation before the arctic front crashes through and how quickly the trough pivots across the area. We'll have a window for decent 700mb frontogenesis to occur driving higher precipitation rates and likewise a transition to rain/snow mix and eventually snow across our south-central AL counties east of I-65. However, given the conditions mentioned above and in option 2 it'll be pretty hard to get rates that overcome the thermal problems in time before precip comes to an end. Best chances for wintry precipitation will be in the 3am to 7am range, with a chance for some lingering flurries through 9am east of I-65. At this time, given very low confidence on any appreciable accumulations of snow and any snow accumulation expected to be limited to elevated surfaces with little to no anticipated impacts, we are holding off on any winter weather advisories.

Once this clears out temperatures will warm well above freezing fairly quick, although our afternoon highs will only top out in the middle to upper 40's. The dry air and breezy conditions following the arctic frontal passage Sunday morning will dry everything out with no expectations for black ice concerns Sunday night into Monday morning as temperatures fall into the 25 to 30 degree range. Monday we thaw out a bit more as highs warm into the upper 50's, but a weak cold front pushing through will bring breezy and cold conditions Monday night into Tuesday morning. This is when our best chance at reaching cold weather advisory criteria exists as morning wind chills bottom out in the 18 to 25 degree range for most of the area. After this, we follow a general warming trend with dry conditions continuing to prevail, eventually reaching back into the lower to middle 60's for afternoon highs by Friday. The rip current risk remains low throughout the rest of the weekend into next week. MM/25

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the forecast with a northwesterly wind around 10 knots. Light rain should persist through most of the night and a potential brief transition to rain snow mix could be possible around daybreak east of I-65. Skies should clear and rain will end by early morning with a persistent light northerly wind. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Light to moderate northwest winds prevail today, becoming strong late this afternoon into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect late this afternoon for the marine waters, lasting through the afternoon Sunday. An occasional gust to gale force can't be ruled out in the 20 to 60 nautical mile gulf waters. Offshore flow gradually diminishes Sunday into Sunday night. A light offshore flow prevails for Monday then strengthens Monday night before diminishing on Tuesday. Light to occasionally moderate easterly to southeasterly flow prevails Wednesday into Thursday. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 31 48 27 57 / 40 0 0 0 Pensacola 35 49 31 56 / 80 20 0 0 Destin 37 47 34 55 / 90 40 0 0 Evergreen 32 46 25 55 / 50 10 0 0 Waynesboro 26 42 25 55 / 20 0 0 0 Camden 28 43 25 53 / 30 0 0 0 Crestview 34 47 23 56 / 80 30 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ670-675.