textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 129 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area this weekend into early next week. Lows in the 40's can be expected widespread across the area, to even mid to upper 30's for inland/northern areas where patchy frost will be possible.

- Moderate to occasional strong northerly winds over the Gulf tonight into the weekend will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A cooler/drier airmass will continue to filter into the local area through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. No rain is expected as PWATs drop to below 0.5 inches by this afternoon. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast. Lows will be quite chilly, with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s north and the low to mid 40s closer to the coast. At this time, ensemble guidance from the NBM and REFS give a less than 10% chance of temperatures dropping below the freezing mark. That being said, these cold temperatures, nearly saturated boundary- layer conditions, and light winds should help to support the development of frost over the northern half of our local area. If confidence continues to increase, we may need to issue a Frost Advisory for portions of our area, given that we are reaching the end of growing season and have yet to have our first freeze of the season. Temperatures slowly start to moderate through midweek as high pressure weakens and pushes directly overhead. Still anticipating dry conditions through Tuesday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s and lows ranging from the low 40s north to the low 50s along the coast.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a southern stream shortwave is expected to quickly push eastward. With upper-level flow turning more southwesterly ahead of this shortwave, some modest moisture return is anticipated prior to the shortwave's passage (PWATs increasing to around 1.0-1.3 inches). This may help to spark a few showers across the area, but overall, coverage should remain rather limited. The next big story will come towards the end of the week as a longwave trough quickly dives southeastward from Canada, digging as far south as the northern Gulf. Long-range guidance suggests that this trough may send a strong cold front southward, potentially dropping temperatures to well below average by the upcoming weekend. Something we will watch over the coming days.

The rip current risk remains low through, at least, the middle of next week. /96

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the entire period. High pressure will build into the area today and aid in tranquil flying conditions with 5-10KT northerlies persisting through Saturday night and beyond.

KL/31

MARINE

Issued at 129 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Persistent offshore northerly flow continue this morning, reaching 08 to 14kts for protected waters to 14 to 18kts for offshore Gulf zones. Small craft should exercise caution for Gulf waters through noon today. Winds will taper some going into the afternoon but remain light at 08-12 knots, increasing to 12-16kts Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Thereafter, high pressure builds into the region reducing winds to light and variable. Waves will remain light ranging 1-2ft for nearshore Gulf waters to 2-3ft for outer Gulf waters. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 70 44 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 70 50 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 71 52 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 67 38 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 67 38 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 63 36 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 70 40 72 40 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.