textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Heat indices will be mostly in the 100 to 105 range this weekend then trend to higher values of 100-108 for Tuesday through Friday.

- Rain chances increase on Sunday with rain likely over much of the area on Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed. /13

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A series of shortwaves exit the northern/central Plains and lead to a large upper trof forming over the eastern states this weekend. The upper trof slowly moves off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday night, and in the process leaves an upper level weakness lingering roughly across the lower Mississippi River valley and back into eastern Texas. The upper level weakness tends to remain close to this position through Thursday while a broad upper trof progresses into the interior eastern states. A series of shortwave then look to allow for the broad upper trof to expand to include much of the eastern states by Friday. The sea breeze is anticipated to lead to the development of isolated convection on Saturday over roughly the southern half of the area. The convective environment becomes more favorable on Sunday as the eastern states upper trof amplifies along with precipitable water values trending to 2.0-2.25 inches. Have gone with chance to likely pops for much of the area on Sunday, with the higher pops over the western portion where the best deep layer moisture will be present.

A surface low is anticipated to develop near the Ohio River valley Saturday night then moves towards the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday, and in the process may bring a weak, diffuse surface trof into central Alabama which dissipates by Tuesday. This feature appears to aid in rain chances trending a bit higher on Monday, then rain chances gradually taper back to chance pops areawide for Wednesday as the upper trof moves off and leaves an upper level weakness generally west of the area. Predominately chance pops follow for Thursday and Friday. Heat index values of 100-105 are expected on Saturday and Sunday, then trend to 100-108 for Tuesday through Friday with the higher values mainly over the southern portion of the area. This may eventually be sufficient to support Heat Advisories over the southern portion of the area next week and will continue to monitor. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

MARINE

Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 94 74 92 75 / 20 0 40 20 Pensacola 94 79 93 79 / 10 0 20 30 Destin 93 80 91 81 / 10 0 10 30 Evergreen 95 74 93 73 / 10 10 40 20 Waynesboro 95 74 93 73 / 20 10 60 20 Camden 92 75 91 73 / 10 10 50 20 Crestview 96 74 94 75 / 20 0 20 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.