textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

- Dense fog will reduce visibilities across the area tonight and possibly Sunday night.

- Well above average temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend. A strong cold front brings an end to this warmth on Monday, with a Cold Weather Advisory potentially being needed for Monday and Tuesday nights.

- Strong winds over the marine area will create hazardous conditions for small craft Monday into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 456 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

The latest night fog satellite product is not showing any fog development occurring, but is showing widespread stratus clouds. Area METAR ceilometers are detecting the base of this stratus deck to range between 300-1400 feet AGL most areas, with slightly higher ceilings along the coast. The culprit preventing fog formation is a west-southwesterly wind flow around 10-15 knots below 1000 feet as being indicted on the KMOB and KEVX Vad Wind Profilers. This is resulting in less than ideal conditions for the development of fog, much less dense fog. In addition, none of the web cam feeds are showing any dense fog across our forecast area at this time.

Satellite imagery is however detecting a small area of fog across the Gulf waters south of the Mississippi coast, and the latest high resolution models do have this fog spreading eastward toward Coastal Alabama. However, no fog formation is being indicted by a majority of the models across the remainder of our area through daybreak. Therefore, have elected to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory for our entire area. Even though the visibility sensors on various marine platforms are reporting unrestricted visibilities, I still anticipate the fog to our west to spread eastward near Coastal Alabama around or shortly after sunrise. Therefore, I will keep Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, and the near shore Gulf Waters south of the Alabama coast in the Dense Fog Advisory. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Now through Friday...

Currently, winds along and south of the coast have risen higher than expected, but are expected to settle after 06z/midnight, allowing sea fog to develop tonight. Inland, winds have already become light, with visibilities starting to drop.

Saturday on, an upper level trough stretching north over the Southern Plains and Southeast hangs tough into the weekend, then begins to shift south as an upper level shortwave trough moves around the base of an closed upper low over the Great Lakes. A cold front moves south over the Southeast Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of the frontal passage, south to southwesterly low level flow in the upper 60s to low 70s off the Gulf over coastal waters in the upper 50s to low 60s will allow for sea fog and stratus development each night, moving inland as the night progresses. There is some variation on how far and how fast, depending upon boundary layer winds and for more inland areas, clear skies and light, but not calm winds. At this point, feel there will be Dense Fog Advisories for at least the southern half of the forecast area each night into the weekend. The passing cold front Monday will usher in a colder and drier airmass, with a significant temperature drop and the possibility of a Cold Weather Advisory being needed for the beginning of the coming week. Instability will be limited with the passing front, along with limited upper support, so am not expecting any rowdy storms Monday at this time.

Looking closer to temperatures, mid to upper 70s are expected through Sunday. Behind the front, high temperatures drop into the mid 40s to around 50 for Tuesday. From there, they slowly warm into the mid to upper 50s by Thursday. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60 are expected Friday and Saturday nights, then drop into mid 20s north of Highway 84 to low to mid 30s along and south of I- 10 Monday and Tuesday nights. From there, low temperatures climb into the upper 20s along the northern border of the forecast area to mid/upper 30s south of I-10 Wednesday night.

A light onshore flow will limit the Rip Risk to Low through the weekend. Ahead of the coming front, an increase in winds ahead of the front may bring a Moderate Risk for Monday. Behind the front, the strong offshore flow will drop the Rip Risk back to Low into mid week. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR by mid-afternoon. VLIFR conditions in dense fog is expected to develop tonight, mainly along and south of US Highway 84. Light southwesterly 5-10 knots will occur throughout the day. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Light onshore flow over cool waters will create dense sea fog over protected and near shore open Gulf waters each night, possibly persisting well into mid day each day. A cold front passing over area waters Monday will bring a strong offshore flow, with a Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed later Monday into mid week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 59 76 54 / 10 0 10 60 Pensacola 74 61 74 59 / 0 10 10 40 Destin 72 62 72 60 / 10 10 10 30 Evergreen 77 57 78 52 / 10 0 10 60 Waynesboro 76 58 77 47 / 0 0 0 70 Camden 75 58 75 47 / 10 0 0 60 Crestview 77 57 76 56 / 10 0 10 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630>632-650.