textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed. /13

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The upper trough extending from the lower Great Lakes to east Texas has an embedded cutoff low centered over the confluence of Ohio and Mississippi rivers visible on water vapor imagery. This trough will lift northeastward and diminish through Thursday morning as it gets caught up in increasingly westerlies. An upper ridge over Florida, a small portion of the southeast states, and the eastern Gulf will persist into the weekend as a series of weak shortwaves pass over the Ohio River region. The upper ridge will get nudged westward over the weekend as a stronger shortwave dives southeastward from the Ohio River to the eastern seaboard with a large upper high building over the central U.S. putting our region under northwest flow aloft. A weak surface low is expected to develop offshore on Monday under the trough and send a backdoor surface cool front into the region late Monday night. The diurnal pattern continues through the near term with isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each day as a seabreeze pushes inland and dissipates through mid- evening. Rain chances will increase to 30-50% on Saturday, followed by scattered to numerous coverage on Sunday and numerous to widespread coverage on Monday. As with all summertime convection, instances of stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty surface winds and locally heavy downpours can be expected.

High temperatures the rest of the week will average just above normal, with lows about 4 to 9 degrees above normal. With surface dewpoints mostly ranging from 72 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with isolated short-duration instances as high as 110 degrees. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period at area TAF sites. Brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities can be expected in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and early evening hours. /13

MARINE

Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 95 76 93 76 / 20 10 30 0 Pensacola 95 80 93 81 / 20 10 30 10 Destin 93 82 92 82 / 20 10 30 10 Evergreen 93 74 93 73 / 10 20 40 10 Waynesboro 94 74 93 73 / 20 20 40 10 Camden 91 74 90 74 / 10 20 40 10 Crestview 96 76 93 75 / 30 10 40 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.