textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the 108 to 112 range.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts.

UPDATE/DISCUSSION

Issued at 525 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Ongoing this afternoon, keeping a close eye on convection ongoing generally along and north of the I-10 corridor. Plenty of support in place for strong to severe thunderstorms, including ample dry air entrainment per recent GOES-16 Precipitable water, resulting in extremely high DCAPE across central MS/AL and plenty of available instability. Environmental favorability for severe weather is in place, but focus will be on any outflow boundary and/or seabreeze interactions to individual, pulse-like severe storms causing damaging downburst winds. REFS guidance/trends slides all convection south late this afternoon/evening, but not entirely sure this will happen as they interact with the post- seabreeze environment along the coast, with low confidence on this activity sagging south through the evening. If it does, the severe threat will transition into coastal marine areas around sunset with ongoing gusty winds the main risks.

Drier air filters into the area tomorrow through Sunday, resulting in lower forecast PoPs and greater PBL mixing to cause a reduction in the heat risk. Not anticipating the need for an advisory tomorrow as heat indices range in the 103-106 range, still hot though. Could still see an isolated storm along the seabreeze, but keeping PoPs in the 10-20% range both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Monday into next week, focus shifts to the northwest as we could likely see distinct PVA/impulses riding around the periphery of the ridge across the four corners region. This could introduce a series of long-distant MCS's from the central MS valley region into the northern Gulf coast. Something we'll need to carefully monitor for Monday and Tuesday.

Mid to late week, we return right back to the typical summertime pattern but again with ongoing impulses from the north. Afternoon heat indices remain below criteria/heat risk impacts remain limited throughout the week with highs in the low 90's, but PoPs remain elevated with daily localized strong to isolated severe storm risks. KLG

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected through early to mid evening across portions of the area. A few of the TAF sites may experience brief drops to MVFR or lower conditions and gusty winds with this activity through around 01-02Z, though isolated strong to severe storms may persist a bit longer over the interior. Additional showers and storms cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast late tonight into early Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light northerly flow is expected for Saturday, turning more southerly or southwesterly along the coast at around 8-12 knots in the afternoon. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 95 74 96 / 30 10 0 20 Pensacola 78 93 78 95 / 20 20 0 20 Destin 79 91 79 93 / 40 20 10 10 Evergreen 71 97 71 98 / 40 10 0 10 Waynesboro 72 99 73 100 / 30 0 0 0 Camden 72 97 72 96 / 20 0 0 10 Crestview 73 96 72 97 / 30 20 10 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...None.