textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Periods of heavy rain are expected Thursday through Saturday with the potential of localized flooding.

- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents on Friday for the beaches of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low clouds have finally cleared out of the area as of midday. The extended period of cloud cover this morning has delayed our warming with most areas still in the mid to upper 40s as of noon. We nudged down the previous forecast high temperatures a few degrees and most locations should top out in the low to mid 50s this afternoon.

Upper level flow will transition to a more southwesterly flow over the next 24 hours and persist through the weekend. A series of embedded shortwaves will move across the region in this pattern, setting the stage for a very wet end of the week. The first shortwave will begin to impact us overnight tonight into Thursday. Rain will develop and spread in from west to east after midnight through Thursday in response to increasing southwest flow above the surface and strengthening isentropic lift. This combined with an impressive return of deep layer moisture (PWATs increasing to 1.5-1.75") will mean that periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected. After this first round of rain, we may see periods of less coverage and intensity in the rain Thursday night through Friday night, but details are uncertain and hinge on the timing of the subtle embedded shortwaves. Bottom line is that that high rain chances will persist. We will also be monitoring a surface low that is forecast to develop over SE LA late Friday night and move toward the Florida Panhandle Friday morning. As the low develops, a warm front will move north toward the coast. At this point, it appears that the best instability will remain offshore, thus limiting the threat for strong to severe storms along the immediate coast. However, we will continue to monitor this closely. There is no concern for severe weather further inland. By Saturday and Saturday night, it appears the best focus for additional rain will be along and southeast of the I-65 corridor as a stronger shortwave approaches from the west. Rain chances are expected to diminish in earnest from west to east by Sunday as a longwave upper level trough amplifies over the eastern half of the country. We should then see dry weather as we head into early next week.

Rainfall totals of 2-4" are increasingly likely over parts of the area and we cannot rule out isolated totals as high as 6". Guidance continues to differ on exactly where the band of heaviest rain will occur, so there is some uncertainty there. However, the latest probabilistic guidance indicates the highest probabilities of seeing 4" of rain currently resides along and southeast of the I-65 corridor (30-50% chance).

Did we mention it's going to be a cold rain? It definitely will be, especially on Thursday with highs only topping out in the upper 40s well inland to mid/upper 50s on the immediate coast. We may get temperatures to briefly reach the upper 60s to near 70 along the immediate coast on Friday with the warm front, but that will be short lived. High temperatures will likely be at or below normal for the weekend through early next week with lows in the 30s returning by Monday night. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon. Clouds and lower ceilings will move into the area tonight with chances of rain increasing after midnight. IFR conditions can be expected for much of the area after 12Z as low ceilings and rain spread across the area. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Light north to northeast winds today will shift northeasterly to easterly tonight and gradually increase through Thursday along with building seas. A brief period of moderate onshore flow is likely over the Gulf waters Friday morning as a surface low and warm front lift north toward the Florida Panhandle. We cannot rule out a few strong storms over the open Gulf waters Friday morning.

A general light offshore over the weekend will likely strengthen by Monday as a strong surface high builds in from the north. 34/JFB

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.