textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 656 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Increasing concern for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding this weekend with multiple rounds of showers and storms, especially near the coast.

- HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through at least Monday.

- Minor coastal flooding is expected during early morning high tide cycles this weekend with water levels up to 2 feet above normally dry ground.

UPDATE

Issued at 656 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Increased PoPs to include scattered showers across our northern zones through mid-evening due to ongoing activity, with this convection expected to dissipate by late evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains in track. /22

..BEACH FORECAST

Hazardous beach conditions continue with all area beaches flying red flags today. The rip current risk continues to be HIGH for all beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle. The HIGH risk continues to Sunday night then drops to a MODERATE through Tuesday before increasing again around Wednesday night. Increased surf up to 3-4 feet continues into the beginning of next week and by mid week may further increase towards High Surf Advisory criteria.

SS/97

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Scattered showers currently ongoing across the region are expected to dissipate inland by late evening, but linger near the coast overnight so kept a PROB30 groups for the PNS/JKA TAF sites. Shower and thunderstorm activity will then increase in coverage along the coast early Saturday morning and spread inland throughout the day, so added additional PROB30 groups for all TAF sites late tonight through Saturday morning. Drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within the strongest storms are expected, along with stronger wind gusts. Otherwise, winds will remain generally easterly to southeasterly through Saturday around 10-15 knots with periodic gusts up to 20 knots, especially closer to the coast. /22

MARINE

Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow continues into Sunday. Winds relax by Monday morning and then become strong and turn northerly to northeasterly behind a cold front on Tuesday. Advisory level conditions are possible Tuesday through Thursday as we get strong easterly winds.Seas increase to 3-5 feet late week into early this weekend with another bump to 5-8 feet possible in the middle of next week with the increasing winds. SS/97

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 82 71 82 / 60 90 80 90 Pensacola 75 83 74 82 / 60 90 80 100 Destin 75 84 74 83 / 50 90 80 100 Evergreen 68 85 68 80 / 20 70 80 90 Waynesboro 69 84 69 79 / 20 70 80 90 Camden 69 87 69 78 / 20 50 80 90 Crestview 69 84 70 80 / 20 90 80 100

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.