textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- We will continue to monitor the potential for fog as the week progresses, especially as southerly winds bring increased moisture levels mid to late week.

- The next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms will be at the end of the week into next weekend as the next cold front approaches. - Strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from Saturday night into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A series of vigorous system progress across much of the northern states through the week, with a large upper trof meanwhile advancing across the western half of the CONUS. The upper trof amplifies while continuing across the eastern states this weekend, with an associated surface low bringing a cold front through the forecast area Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. A warm and moist southerly flow continues over the area ahead of the approaching front, which brings mild temperatures and also the potential for fog development each night. Dry conditions prevail through Wednesday, then a series of shortwaves will support slight chance to chance pops from Wednesday night into Thursday, with chance to occasionally likely pops Thursday night into Friday night. Likely pops follow for Saturday into Saturday evening as the front approaches and moves through, then rain chances taper off to dry conditions on Sunday. Dry conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday. MLCAPE values look to increase to 500-1000 J/kg over the western portion of the area Friday afternoon and evening, but shear looks limited. Similar MLCAPE values are indicated ahead of the front on Saturday, but an examination of model soundings appears to show this more of a "tall-skinny" CAPE distribution, and shear values appear to be a bit lower compared to what was seen yesterday. Will continue to monitor at this point.

A low risk of rip currents is expected for tonight through Wednesday night, with a moderate risk for Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures trend warmer through Thursday by which time highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with similar values following for Friday and Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the 50s then trend to the lower to mid 60s by Thursday night, with similarly mild values for Friday night. Much cooler air flows into the area in the wake of the frontal passage Saturday afternoon into the evening hours, and by Sunday night lows will be in the 30s, with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s Monday night. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and in the 50s on Monday before moderating slightly by Tuesday. /29

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Predominate VFR conditions to start the evening will likely give way to some MVFR ceilings developing overnight into Wednesday morning. This is supported by persistent southerly low level flow. Fog formation will likely be hindered by a persistent southerly breeze along with extensive high clouds. Cannot completely rule out IFR ceilings developing in some locations by morning, but confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. A return to VFR ceilings is likely by midday/early afternoon Wednesday. 34/JFB

MARINE

Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A light to moderate onshore flow will continue through Saturday. Winds shift to the northwest and strengthen Saturday night as a cold front moves through, with a strong offshore flow continuing into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for Saturday night into Monday. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.