textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday. A few strong storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

- High temperatures trend to the mid to upper 90s going into early next week with heat indices ranging from 100-107 degrees.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A weakening upper trof over the southeastern states ejects off to the north on Sunday followed by an upper ridge building over the region through Monday. A weak surface trof extends into the forecast area on Sunday and looks to aid in isolated to scattered convective development mainly during the afternoon. The upper ridge remains over the region through Wednesday with a surface ridge over the northeastern states meanwhile building into the southeastern states. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge will suppress convective development while the building surface ridge sets up an easterly flow and ushers progressively drier air into the forecast area beginning Monday and becoming more pronounced Wednesday into Wednesday night.

An interesting pattern sets up later in the period as an upper low/trof over the far western Atlantic, with an associated inverted surface trof, is anticipated to move to over or near the Florida peninsula on Friday. Am anticipating dry conditions to continue over the area on Thursday, then have gone with mainly slight chance pops returning to the southern portion of the area on Friday. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to mid 90s then trend to the mid to upper 90s for Monday and Tuesday. Heat index values on Sunday through Tuesday will be 100-106 with a few spots reaching 107. Highs on Wednesday through Friday will be mainly 90-95. Heat index values of 95-103 on Wednesday trend to the mid 90s for Thursday and Friday. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated from Sunday through Tuesday then increases to a high risk for Wednesday and Thursday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR flight category generally prevails across the region through this evening. Temporary reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible as patchy fog develops over the interior portions of the area during the overnight hours through daybreak this morning. Additional reductions in flight category are possible this afternoon in association with any showers or storms that develop. Winds remain light and variable through the morning, becoming southerly at 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon. Light and variable winds return to the area after sunset. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Light southwest to westerly flow prevails today. A light diurnal flow pattern sets up Monday into Tuesday, becoming a moderate to strong easterly flow Wednesday into Thursday. 1 foot seas persist through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 3 to 6 feet. Waterspouts are possible early each morning. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed late Tuesday through mid week. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 92 74 94 73 / 30 10 10 0 Pensacola 91 77 93 77 / 30 10 10 0 Destin 89 77 92 78 / 20 10 10 0 Evergreen 94 71 96 71 / 20 0 0 0 Waynesboro 95 72 97 71 / 30 0 0 0 Camden 93 72 96 72 / 10 0 0 0 Crestview 92 72 94 73 / 30 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.