textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 645 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 - Isolated to scattered storms are expected through Tuesday.

- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected through Tuesday, increasing mid week on.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches the latter half of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The forecast remains on track as showers and storms along the coast this morning spread inland this afternoon, and are expected to linger into the early evening. High temperatures will range from 90-95 degrees with heat indices ranging to 100-107 degrees. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Through Wednesday night, an upper ridge centered over the Florida Peninsula shifts west over the northern Gulf Coast. A weakly organized surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf/Gulf coast, with a light southerly flow shifting to south to southwest. Guidance is advertising moisture levels over the forecast area starting in the 2.0"-2.2" range. Even with the advancing upper ridge, weak shortwave impulses embedded in the ridge will allow scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday to form over the forecast area. As the forecast progresses into mid week, alternating bands of drier air will pass over the forecast area. Combined with increasing upper subsidence from the shifting upper ridge, PoPs are inconsistent, with isolated convection Tuesday. Isolated to scattered storms are expected Wednesday, mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area, with a shortwave passing over the eastern half of the Southeast. This convection is expected to be in the afternoon over land areas. Late night/early morning rain showers and thunderstorm are expected to develop over the Gulf, with warm Gulf waters providing good near surface instability. Pulse type strong to marginally severe storms are possible in the afternoon, with MLCapes in the 2000-2500J/kg range and DCapes around 1000J/kg.

As the upper ridge passes over/near the forecast area into mid week, the increasing upper subsidence will bring high temperatures increasingly above seasonal norms. Low to mid 90s Monday rise into the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday. Heat indices rise in response, from the 100-107 degree range Monday into the 102 to 110 degree range Wednesday, along with an increasing need for Heat Advisories into mid week. Low temperatures rise from the low to mid 70s Monday night into the mid to upper 70s Wednesday night. Low temperatures along coast continue to fall in the upper 70s to near 80 through the period.

Thursday on, the upper ridge over the northern Gulf coast meanders slowly west and builds a bit. High temperatures rise into the 95 to 100 degree range by the end of the week, with Heat Indices creeping up a bit in response. PoPs see a bit of an uptick into the weekend, but with the upper ridge over/near the forecast area and moisture levels inconsistent, this uptick is small, and PoPs remain below seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected into mid week, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to a low Moderate is indicated for the end of the week, especially over our Florida beaches. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. Scattered showers along the coast this morning will be followed by showers and thunderstorms developing inland this afternoon. MVFR ceilings, brief IFR visibilities, and gusty winds to 35 knots are expected in the stronger storms. Winds for all TAF sites will start off calm to light and variable, becoming southeasterly to southerly at 5-10 knots by late morning as a sea-breeze pushes inland. /22

MARINE

Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Light southerly winds will shift to light southwesterly to westerly late tonight through the remainder of the week as a ridge over the northeast Gulf shifts southward. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 75 92 75 / 40 0 20 0 Pensacola 90 78 91 79 / 40 10 20 0 Destin 89 79 90 80 / 20 0 10 0 Evergreen 93 73 94 74 / 30 10 20 10 Waynesboro 95 74 96 74 / 30 10 20 10 Camden 92 74 92 75 / 30 10 20 10 Crestview 93 73 94 74 / 30 0 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.