textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 311 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 - Dangerous heat stress continues to worsen into midweek. Heat Advisories are in effect through Tuesday and an Extreme Heat Watch is in effect for our coastal areas on Tuesday.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return midweek for our Florida beaches.

- Daily afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorm chances increase in the middle to latter part of the week, but it will still remain hot.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A large upper ridge centered over the central states which extends across much of the northern Gulf coast states persists through Tuesday while an upper trof will be oriented along the East Coast. A surface ridge over the western Gulf into the ArkLaTex region will tend to promote a westerly to northwesterly surface flow over the forecast area through Tuesday, with a sea breeze developing near the coast each afternoon. A forecast problem through Tuesday is whether or not a series of shortwaves moving through the northwesterly flow aloft will lead to convective development moving into the area (from the north) and/or enhancing convective development with the sea breeze. There appears to be some consensus among CAMs that development with the sea breeze is the more favored solution, but there is a lot of uncertainty at this point. Have for now continued with slight chance to chance pops for Monday mostly east of the Tombigbee and Mobile Rivers then for Tuesday will have slight chance pops mainly over the coastal counties.

The upper trof amplifies and retrogrades a bit on Wednesday, then expands to encompass the eastern half of the CONUS past Thursday and going into Saturday. A surface low well off to the north looks to bring a weak cold front or surface trof into the forecast area on Wednesday which meanders near the southern portion of the area on Thursday and potentially lingers into Friday before dissipating. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for Wednesday through Friday with the potential for likely pops near the coast on Thursday. A surface low is meanwhile anticipated to develop over the Plains by Friday and advance towards the forecast area on Saturday. Have gone with likely pops for the entire area on Saturday ahead of this next system.

Dangerous heat conditions are expected over the entire area through Tuesday, and likely much of the area on Wednesday as well. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s with mostly upper 90s to around 100 anticipated for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday look to range from the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values on Monday will be mostly 108-111 then for Tuesday values of 108-113 are expected, with the higher values near the coast. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area on Monday, then for Tuesday an Extreme Heat Watch is in effect for much of the coastal counties with a Heat Advisory elsewhere. Another Heat Advisory will likely become necessary on Wednesday for much of the area, which could possibly include an Extreme Heat Watch for the coastal counties. Record or near record highs are possible from Monday through Wednesday. Here is a table of the records and our current forecast.

Monday, July 27

Mobile Record High: 99 (1968) / Forecast: 97 Pensacola Record High: 98 (1970) / Forecast: 97

Tuesday, July 28

Mobile Record High: 100 (1968) / Forecast: 98 Pensacola Record High: 98 (1993) / Forecast: 97

Wednesday, July 29

Mobile Record High: 100 (1877) / Forecast: 98 Pensacola Record High: 100 (1986) / Forecast: 97

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for Monday, then for Tuesday a low risk is anticipated for Alabama beaches with a moderate risk for western Florida panhandle beaches. For Wednesday and Thursday, a moderate risk is expected for Alabama beaches with a high risk for western Florida panhandle beaches. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms exists during the afternoon hours today, especially east of the AL/MS line. Any heavier activity may cause brief drops in visbys to MVFR or lower and perhaps some gusty winds. Generally west to northwest winds around 5-10 knots are expected, becoming more southwesterly at around 6-12 knots near the coast this afternoon with the sea breeze, weakening after sunset. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A diurnal wind pattern is expected early this week with a light to moderate northwesterly flow early each morning turning westerly to occasionally southwesterly through the afternoon and evening. Light to moderate westerly flow becomes established for the latter half of the week. Storm coverage will increase especially by mid week with winds and waves locally higher near any storms.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution over the Gulf through much of this week. /JLH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 97 77 98 77 / 20 10 20 10 Pensacola 97 80 97 81 / 30 20 20 0 Destin 94 81 94 82 / 30 20 20 0 Evergreen 97 75 98 76 / 20 20 0 0 Waynesboro 99 77 100 76 / 10 20 0 0 Camden 96 76 98 78 / 30 20 0 0 Crestview 99 76 99 78 / 30 20 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261- 262.

Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for ALZ263>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.