textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm development continues into the weekend, especially over interior portions of south central Alabama. Storms could produce heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized flash flooding, along with gusty winds.

- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in place for the weekend

- Heat indices rise to around 100 this weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Through Tuesday...An upper ridge builds north over the Plains into Monday before a strong upper level trough swings into an upper trough over the East Coast Tuesday into mid week. A cold front moves across the forecast area Tuesday before reaching the northern Gulf coast Tuesday evening. A moist airmass (precipitable h20 levels of 1.9"-2.0") has moved back over the forecast area. Abundant shortwave energy moving over the Southeast this weekend decreases in the coming week, as does overall moisture levels as bands of drier air move over the forecast area and nearby. The result is scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this weekend decreasing to isolated to scattered for Monday and Tuesday ahead of the coming front. With high temperatures above seasonal norms this weekend, especially the southwestern half of the forecast area (around 90 along and northwest of a Shubuta to Pensacola line, low 90s southwest) sees an uptick of a couple of degrees Monday into Tuesday as the Plains upper ridge builds. With the better moisture levels, Heat Indices are expected to top out in the 98-103 degree range south of a Shubuta to Florala line Sunday and Monday, with a bit of a southward shift Tuesday as drier air begins to move south across the forecast area. Low temperatures remain above seasonal levels, bottoming out in the low to mid 70s through Monday night.

Tuesday night through Saturday, the drier airmass combined with the passing upper ridge shifting east over the Southeast will bring a drier forecast back to the forecast area. Isolated afternoon convection is possible mainly closer to the coast through Thursday, with a slow rise into the weekend as onshore flow returns by Friday. Guidance is painting best chance of returning convection being west of the Alabama River, with better moisture return over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Even so, with the upper ridge present over the forecast area, coverage of convection is expected to be low, isolated to scattered. Temperatures behind the front drop to a below seasonal low to mid 80s Wednesday. From there, temperatures see a rise, with the magnitude begin governed by strength and placement of colder air moving over the Southeast behind the front. The current forecast is based upon a blend of the 00z guidance, with temperatures rising closer to, but remaining just below seasonal norms by Saturday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent onshore flow weakens though the weekend, decreasing swell on area beaches. Even with a large tidal range, there will be a slow decrease in the Rip Risk, from the current Moderate decreasing to a Low by Monday. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday morning outside of brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings near scattered showers and isolated storms this afternoon and evening. Most of this convection will remain over interior counties, so we only included VCSH for our TAF sites this afternoon. Southwesterly winds around 7-12 knots with a few higher gusts along the coast will decrease to less than 5 knots by mid evening. /22

MARINE

Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists through the weekend and into early next week. Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms today. Winds turn northerly late Tuesday and easterly by Wednesday. Exercise caution conditions are possible on Thursday and Friday in the easterly flow. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 91 73 92 / 10 40 20 50 Pensacola 76 87 75 89 / 10 40 30 40 Destin 75 86 74 87 / 10 40 30 20 Evergreen 72 89 71 91 / 30 60 40 30 Waynesboro 72 90 72 92 / 30 30 20 20 Camden 70 87 70 88 / 30 60 40 30 Crestview 72 90 71 93 / 20 60 40 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.