textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Temperatures are expected to warm by the end of this week and will remain above average through the weekend and into early next week.

- No hazards are anticipated over the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue through much of the period as our local area remains sandwiched between upper-level troughing over the eastern US and strong upper ridging over the southwest US. At the surface, high pressure currently centered overhead this afternoon, will eventually settle over the northern Gulf starting tomorrow. Although several embedded shortwaves look to pass overhead, the high in place, along with low moisture values, should help to keep rain out of the forecast through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. By early next week, some guidance continues to suggest that a weak cold front may approach and pass across the area. Although the current forecast maintains dry conditions through next Thursday, probabilistic guidance does hint at a modest increase in moisture values (20-30% chance of PWATs exceeding 1.2 inches) early next week. With this increase in moisture, shortwaves moving overhead, and the proximity of the front at the surface, I would not be surprised to see isolated rain chances return sometime during the Monday- Wednesday timeframe over the next few forecast cycles. Otherwise, very warm conditions are expected throughout the period. Highs by Saturday will reach the low to mid 80s (upper 70s along the coast), with upper 80s possible for some locations by early next week. Lows by this weekend and next week will only drop into the mid to upper 50s to low 60s. A Low Risk of rip currents continues through the week and into the upcoming weekend. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Low to mid-level plumes of smoke from wildfire and prescribed burning activity will occur over much of the area this evening. VFR flight categories will otherwise persist through the Friday afternoon. Light southerly to southwesterly 5-10 knots along the coast will become calm to light by mid-evening, while remaining calm to light and variable inland areas. /22

MARINE

Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Light and variable flow continues through Friday. A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow becomes prevalent for this weekend and into early next week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 47 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 51 75 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 53 72 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 44 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 46 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 45 79 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 41 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.