textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 - A dry forecast is expected the rest of the week, with showers and thunderstorms returning over the weekend.

- Temperatures will continue to rise through the rest of the week, weekend and into early next week. Forecast heat indices in the 100's this weekend to upper 100's to low 110's next week for portions of the area, revealing a growing concern for heat-related impacts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Through Saturday...shortwave energy swirling through an upper ridge over the Southeast organizes into a closed upper low/trough over the eastern half of the region by Saturday night. Moisture levels increase over the eastern half of the region, with this moisture moving west over the region (and to varying extents, the forecast area) to varying extents. With that, a return of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area to varying extents is indicated in the guidance in the guidance by Saturday. The highest PoPs continue to be over eastern portions of the forecast area. The upper ridge over the area will bring temperatures rising above seasonal norms. Highest temperatures are expected to be over western portions of the forecast area, away from the developing upper low/trough. High temperatures ranging from the mid 90s over the western half of the forecast area or inland from the coast to around 90 over the northeastern quarter of the forecast area along the coast. The increasing moisture levels will bring increasing heat indices through the short term, to the 100-107 degree range by Saturday. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are expected through Saturday night.

Sunday into the coming week...An upper ridge building east from over the southern Plains builds east over the Southeast, shifting the upper ridge/low over the eastern portions of the Southeast off the East coast. Moisture levels remain high over the forecast, and with subsidence from the building upper ridge, high temperature rise to near 100 over the western half of the forecast area, mid to upper 90s east. Heat indices rise to above Heat Advisory levels (>108) by Monday, with Excessive Heat Watch/Warning possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a light to at times moderate west to northwest flow will limit onshore swell. Combined with a decreasing tidal cycle, a Low Risk of rip currents is expected through through the weekend. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A light to at times moderate, generally westerly flow is expected into the coming week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 97 76 95 / 10 0 10 20 Pensacola 78 97 79 95 / 10 10 20 40 Destin 80 95 80 93 / 10 20 40 60 Evergreen 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 40 Waynesboro 73 95 74 95 / 10 0 0 20 Camden 73 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 30 Crestview 74 95 74 93 / 10 20 30 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.