textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- There is the potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall through noon today.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will occur today through the upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 528 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

With the activity over the Watch area still on the worrisome side, have extended the watch in consultation with SPC until 8am/13Z. These storms are still operating in more unstable air ahead of an approaching cold front. The 10z analysis places the front along an eastern Stone Co to eastern Choctaw/western Clarke Co line. The latest SPC analysis places this line in an area of 1000J/kg MLCapes, along with 50-60kts Bulk Wind Shear and 100-200 m^s/s^2 0-500mb helicities. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Synopsis...Latest surface analysis is showing a stationary front extending from eastern Kentucky to southwest Louisiana. This front will soon begin to be pushed slowly southeastward as a cold front as surface high pressure builds in from the west across the middle Mississippi River through noon today. This front will be one of our focuses for the continuation of convection through the remainder of the night north of a line from Wiggins, MS to Andalusia, AL, and across the southern half of our forecast area throughout the morning hours. Looking aloft...a southern jet stream extending from Oklahoma to New England will get shunted a tad further southeastward as a large trough advances across the Great Lakes and Ohio River regions, putting our area in a slightly more favorable right entrance region. The cold front will eventually move south of the coast by late this afternoon and then stalls before lifting back northward as a warm front Friday afternoon and evening. After a brief dry period from mid-afternoon today through Friday morning, a resurgence of scattered to numerous showers and storms will occur Friday afternoon and evening, followed by numerous to widespread showers and storms late Friday night through the upcoming weekend as additional upper impulses traverse the region. The benefit these non-severe storms is the potential of more significant rainfall of 1.5 to 3 inches to help ease the drought conditions over the forecast area.

Severe thunderstorms...In coordination with The Storm Prediction Center, we have issued Tornado Watch 189 that remains in effect until 6 AM this morning as the current line of eastward moving thunderstorms creeps slightly southward as the surface front starts to move into our area. Ample warm air advection is ongoing with dewpoints ranging from 70-75 degrees already in place. The latest meso-analysis is showing surface based instability values around 1,000 to 2,000j/kg and mixed layer instability values around 1,000 to 1,500j/kg. Effective Bulk Shear is currently around 60 to 65 knots, and the maximum 2-6km AGL Lapse Rates are around 7.5C/km. Effective Storm Relative Helicity values are currently at around 200 to 325m2/s2. So, under these conditions we are anticipating all three types of severe weather impacts with damaging gusts and an isolated risk for marginal severe hail and tornadic activity. Although we expect the overall threat to slowly diminish, with this environment being largely maintained throughout the morning, a level 2/Slight Risk will cover all of the FL Panhandle and far southeast AL for the upcoming Day 1 Outlook, with damaging winds driving greatest severe threat.

A drier and cooler airmass moves into the area behind a stronger cold front advancing off the coast by Monday morning with low temperatures Monday night dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s interior areas and middle to upper 50s near the coast. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms currently stretching west of east over the forecast area will continue to slowly shift south through the morning as a cold front over the western quarter of the area moves across the area. Low end MVFR conditions will precede IFR conditions in the convection. Operations will likely be impacted in and near the convection. Southwesterly winds 10 to 15 knots will shift to northwesterly behind the front's passage this morning. /16

MARINE

Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Light onshore flow increases to a light to moderate flow tonight into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. A light to moderate offshore flow develops behind the front, but quickly shifts to onshore temporarily over the weekend before a passing system brings back light to moderate offshore flow Sunday. /16

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Daily rainfall, both over and north of the forecast area, is expected to cause rises in rivers. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 62 76 65 / 80 0 60 70 Pensacola 82 65 77 68 / 70 10 40 60 Destin 81 66 78 68 / 70 10 30 60 Evergreen 81 56 74 58 / 90 0 30 70 Waynesboro 78 56 73 60 / 40 0 40 80 Camden 76 55 73 58 / 60 0 20 70 Crestview 84 60 78 61 / 90 0 30 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.