textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase in coverage each afternoon through Thursday and continue into Friday. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Hot conditions continue, with heat indices topping out at around 102-107 degrees each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

We start off today's package with a large surface high pressure area across the eastern U.S. resulting in lower rain chances. The forecast area will be dry until around mid-afternoon until maximum surface temperatures ranging from 90-95 degrees result in a 20-30% chance of showers and storms to developing. Despite the lower rain chances the Storm Prediction Center has most of our area east of the Alabama River outlooked for a Marginal Risk of severe weather. Lingering convection into early this evening should completely dissipate around 9 pm. Patchy fog is expected early this morning and again late tonight inland areas with localized visibilities down to 1 mile in fog prone areas. High rain chances (30-50%) will occur on Wednesday as an upper trough over the Midwest states shifts eastward and digs southward with the base reaching the Tennessee Valley. This will allow the surface high pressure across the eastern U.S. to shift eastward as a weak surface trough moves in.

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday as the upper trough digs further southward with the base reaching the northeast Gulf. With PWATS increasing to an average around 2.3" on Thursday, the potential for localized flooding will need to be closely monitored. High temperatures today and Wednesday will range from 90-95 degrees, and when combined with surface dewpoints ranging from 74 to 78 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees. High temperatures Thursday should only reach around 90 degrees due to the higher rain chances. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail much of the period outside of some patchy fog tonight with brief reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions. Another round of scattered showers and storms is possible Tuesday afternoon. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. A few strong storms capable of producing gusty, erratic winds cannot be ruled out. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 73 93 73 / 30 10 50 40 Pensacola 90 75 90 76 / 30 10 40 40 Destin 88 77 88 78 / 20 20 40 40 Evergreen 93 70 94 71 / 20 10 50 30 Waynesboro 93 72 95 72 / 10 10 50 40 Camden 93 72 94 73 / 10 10 50 30 Crestview 92 71 92 72 / 30 20 50 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.