textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Dry weather and near seasonal temperatures much of mid to late week trend well above normal by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Front is draped over the northern and central Gulf. The bulk of the radar activity has moved east out of the local area. There are indications from the high resolution short-range ensembles showing scattered showers/perhaps a few storms redeveloping along the I-10 corridor during the course of the afternoon as the back edge of departing low/mid level energy moves through and squeezes out any lingering moisture. Any storms should remain below severe levels. At this time, with the eastward propagation of the upper support from passage of upper trof, the more favorable area of severe weather looks to be positioned over the Florida Peninsula the remainder of the day where are marginal risk is outlooked.

With a short-wave upper ridge of high pressure to advance east of the area and surface high pressure moving east of the Lower MS River Valley, a rain-free weather pattern returns the remainder of the week. Dry weather looks to linger into the weekend.

Highs mostly in the lower to mid 80's the rest of the week will not be too far from mid May normals. Highs warm to a range of 85 to 90 most areas by early half of next week. Lows 57 to 62 interior and lower to mid 60's coast tonight and Wednesday night. Coolest lows this period is Thursday night with numbers lowering to lower to mid 50's east of a line from Waynesboro MS to Crestview FL and some 5 to 10 degrees below normal for mid May these areas. The coolness will be very brief. Thereafter, lows to dramatically moderate to well into the 60's interior to lower 70's coast and well above normal by early next week. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Light rain and IFR ceilings are slowly departing eastern areas as of early afternoon. Mainly MVFR ceilings should persist across eastern areas through the afternoon, with VFR conditions west of i-65. MVFR and perhaps a few areas of IFR ceilings will likely develop late tonight east of i-65, with lower confidence in MVFR or lower ceilings to the west. Skies are expected to clear to VFR by mid- morning Wednesday. Generally northeasterly winds around 5-10 knots this afternoon will become northerly by early Wednesday. 98/29

MARINE

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Due to a light to occasionally moderate north to northeast flow through tonight, the fetch supports seas ranging 2 to 4 feet through Wednesday morning. Following, winds decrease and seas subside the remainder of the period. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 64 86 61 85 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 67 85 65 85 / 10 0 0 0 Destin 67 83 66 84 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 60 85 58 82 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 61 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 61 83 57 80 / 10 10 0 0 Crestview 61 86 59 86 / 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.