textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Strong easterly winds develop over the marine area Monday, resulting in a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents and potentially hazardous surf conditions through mid to late week.

- Below average temperatures continue through Tuesday morning, with areas of early morning frost possible across the far northern portions of the area. Temperatures gradually moderate through the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Temperatures again reached or fell below freezing early this morning across several inland areas, including isolated locations as far south as the Florida Panhandle. Widespread mid to high-level clouds moving in from the west today, along with continued northeast winds, will keep highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most spots this afternoon. Cloud cover tonight should result in warmer overnight lows, ranging from the mid 40s across southern areas to mid 30s across the far north, where areas of frost will remain possible. Given that the first freeze has just occurred across these areas, additional frost products will no longer be issued for the northernmost counties.

A weak upper-level trough moves across the area Monday. While some guidance continues to suggest light rain, very dry air below around 800 mb should prevent most precipitation from reaching the surface. Maintained very low rain chances, with only a few sprinkles possible over southern areas. Highs Monday remain below average, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s, given widespread cloud cover and continued northeast flow. Another chilly night is expected Monday night, with similar lows to tonight, but this will depend on cloud cover.

By Tuesday, the upper trough shifts east into the western Atlantic as ridging starts to build across the eastern CONUS. High pressure remains in control through the remainder of the week, supporting predominantly dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. Forecast highs gradually reach the mid to upper 70s Wednesday through Saturday, with overnight lows moderating into the 40s over the interior and 50s across the southern half of the area.

Strong surface high pressure to the north and lower pressure over the Gulf will tighten the pressure gradient this week, resulting in strengthening easterly to northeasterly winds over the marine area beginning Monday. The rip current risk increases to Moderate Monday, followed by a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents Tuesday through at least Thursday. Potentially hazardous surf conditions may also develop Tuesday into Wednesday, especially along Alabama beaches. JGC/98

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Expansive mid and high level clouds will continue to overspread the region through tomorrow morning. Northeast winds will prevail through the forecast period and will be generally less than 10 kt. 34/JFB

MARINE

Issued at 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Moderate easterly to northeasterly winds increase to strong tonight into Monday as the pressure gradient tightens over the Gulf. Seas build to 5-8 feet through the remainder of the week, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected starting Monday morning across the nearshore and offshore Gulf waters, continuing for much of the upcoming week. JGC/98

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 44 62 44 71 / 10 10 0 0 Pensacola 50 62 52 70 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 52 63 55 69 / 0 10 10 0 Evergreen 37 61 39 67 / 0 10 0 0 Waynesboro 38 63 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 34 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 39 60 44 69 / 0 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.