textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Severe storms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

- Patchy to areas of fog, dense at times, is possible overnight into the pre-dawn hours through midweek.

- Strong marine winds late Wednesday night through Thursday evening will create hazardous conditions for small craft operators.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

We remain focused on the impactful midweek system with increasing beach and marine hazards Wednesday evening through Thursday evening, and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms including damaging winds and a brief tornado or two Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Synopsis...

The overall synoptic patterns between the models remain in good agreement as we start off with an upper trough (with a centralized cutoff low pressure area) axis situated over the southern Plains and northern Mexico around noon Wednesday. This trough will advance eastward over the lower Mississippi River region late Wednesday night into Thursday and become much less amplified in the process. A light southerly flow will continue through Wednesday afternoon as a surface ridge remains situated across the eastern Gulf. A surface low pressure area will pass well north of the region, but an associated strong cold front approaching from the northwest will pass through our area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusty northerly winds are likely in the wake of the front. This front will also usher in a much cooler and drier airmass with high temperatures on Thursday in the middle to upper 60s inland to near 70 along the coast. Low temperatures Thursday night should fall into the lower 40s inland to upper 40s along the coast. Surface high pressure behind the front will continue through the remainder of the week with temps quickly warming back into the upper 70s and lower 80s over the weekend. The next chance of rain will occur early next week as a large upper trough is expected to dig south over the entire eastern CONUS.

Severe Weather Potential...

Weak upper difluence will gradually overspreading our forecast area ahead of the trough with an ample warm and moist airmass remaining with dewpoints in middle to upper 60s and increasing mixed layer instability values approaching 500 to 1000j/kg. Modest shear for possible organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be in place ahead of an eventual QLCS, and we expect around 200 m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH to be present. This will set the stage for any storms within the QLCS or the discrete activity to pose the potential for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. Currently the anticipated timing for discrete storms would be Wednesday evening across the far interior portions of southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. The QLCS is expected to begin to enter our southeastern Mississippi and far northwestern Alabama counties between 2 AM and 4 AM, spreading east to the I-65 corridor between 4 AM and 5 AM, and exiting the forecast area to the east between 8 AM and 10 AM.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through Wednesday morning increasing to MODERATE Wednesday afternoon. A HIGH risk of rip currents will then occur Wednesday night after midnight through Thursday, and a Coastal Hazard Message has been issued. Surf heights up to four feet are also likely during the period. A LOW risk of rip currents will follow Thursday night after midnight through the remainder of the week. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

General VFR conditions are expected this afternoon. A few afternoon rainshowers may pop up, but are not expected to impact operations. After midnight, fog development is expected after midnight tonight. Area TAF sites will likely be affected after 08z, with drops LIFR or lower possible in some areas. The fog is expected to quickly mix out after sunrise Wednesday morning. Winds are expected to be southerly less than 10 knots overnight, rising to 10 to 15 knots by the end of the forecast. /16

MARINE

Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Small Craft conditions are likely late Wednesday night through Thursday evening as winds turn northerly in the wake of a strong cold front. Until then, a light southerly flow continues through Wednesday afternoon, followed by a moderate southwesterly flow Wednesday evening ahead of the front. Periods of fog remain possible near the coastline overnight into the early morning hours through midweek. A light easterly to southeasterly flow will follow for Friday becoming southeasterly on Saturday. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 67 82 55 68 / 0 30 90 40 Pensacola 67 78 60 68 / 0 10 90 60 Destin 65 75 61 71 / 0 10 80 70 Evergreen 63 84 53 66 / 0 0 90 50 Waynesboro 67 83 49 63 / 0 30 90 40 Camden 65 83 50 63 / 0 10 90 50 Crestview 63 82 57 70 / 0 10 80 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.