textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- The combination of low humidity values, gusty winds, and moderate to extreme drought will lead to dangerous fire conditions today and Tuesday.

- A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected Wednesday night into Thursday for local area beaches.

- Rain chances are expected to increase late Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

An upper-level trough over the eastern US will push into the western Atlantic late tonight and into Tuesday. Upper ridging builds in behind it over the central US and will slowly push eastward across the CONUS through the week. For our area, a weak southern-stream shortwave aloft is expected to pass overhead late Tuesday into Wednesday. Although it will likely bring increased cloud cover to the area, no rain is anticipated with its passage. Outside of this feature, high pressure will remain in control over the next few days as it slowly pushes from the Appalachians, down into the Atlantic. As it builds southeastward, our winds will also shift from northeasterly today to more southeasterly/southerly by mid week. This will allow for temperatures and dew points to slowly increase throughout the week. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80 today will increase to the low to mid 80s (possibly a few upper 80s) by mid to late week. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to low 50s will increase to the low to mid 60s by late week.

The pattern likely begins to change by late Friday and especially into the weekend as the upper ridge dampens and the subtropical jet becomes more active over the southern US. With deep moisture expected to quickly increase by this weekend due to this pattern change, along with ensembles suggesting a rather diffluent pattern developing aloft, rain/storm chances will likely be on the increase for the late Friday through Monday timeframe. Although too early to nail down specifics at this time, it should be noted that machine- learning/CIPS analog guidance has been painting a rather broad area of severe probabilities across portions of the Deep South each day throughout this timeframe. Although the highest probabilities at this point look to remain just to our northwest, things are bound to change since we are still 5-7 days out. Therefore, we will keep a close eye on trends over the coming days.

A Low Risk of rip currents tonight/Tuesday will increase to a Moderate Risk Tuesday night and into Wednesday. A High Risk of rip currents returns for Wednesday night and Thursday. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with a light and variable wind overnight becoming a light southerly wind tomorrow. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Light to moderate northeasterly to easterly flow today will turn southeasterly on Tuesday. This general flow pattern will continue through Friday, turning more southerly by this weekend. /96

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for our Alabama and Florida counties through 6 PM tonight. The combination of low relative humidity values (as low 15-20%), gusty winds (gusts as high as 20-25 mph), and moderate to extreme drought will lead to dangerous fire conditions through the remainder of the afternoon hours. Similar conditions are possible on Tuesday for the same areas (although wind speeds may be a bit lower), so another Red Flag Warning may become necessary. Humidity values do begin to increase by mid to late week, however, with no rain expected through at least Thursday, fire conditions continue to remain elevated. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 50 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 57 78 61 78 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 59 78 63 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 46 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 47 82 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 48 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 46 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.