textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for inland areas with a targeted Extreme Heat Warning for coastal zones Tuesday afternoon into the evening for heat indices of 105-115. Additional heat advisories will likely be needed through much of the week.

- There is a Moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches in Florida and Alabama through Wednesday.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

High pressure maintains its hold on the weather pattern, with hot and humid conditions persisting through the end of the week. Current temps are already approaching 90 degrees, and with ample time for heating, expect highs to top out in the upper 90s to even triple digits in some areas. While our air temps are high, we should have enough mixing in the afternoon to drop dewpoints a couple of degrees, keeping our heat indices in the 108 to 115 degree range, which is still very dangerous. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday, though temps are expected to be a degree or two cooler as ridging begins to break down. Based on heat indices climbing into the 108 to 112 degree range, a heat advisory will be issued for Wednesday as well. Otherwise, our attention turns to the potential for thunderstorms and what their intensity will be.

Yesterday's activity was a bit more widespread than anticipated, with several lingering outflows noted traversing the area. Convective temps are in the lower 90s, so we'll likely begin to see thunderstorms developing in the next hour or so. Not anticipating organized severe storms, typical of summertime, but a few storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and winds up to 60 mph. So I would not be surprised if we have a couple of severe warnings this afternoon. Activity should diminish around sunset as we lose our daytime heating. Again, similar conditions are expected for Wednesday, though coverage may be less.

The end of the workweek and upcoming weekend will really be a rinse and repeat for much of the area. Highs will warm into the 90s, with overnight lows falling into the 70s. Global models do feature a weak low over the eastern Gulf, which may move west and bring a higher certainty of rainfall by the weekend. However, there's little in the way of agreement, so confidence is low. /73

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. The exception will be during the afternoon hours, when thunderstorms may impact the terminals. Based on the last couple of days, have opted to include a tempo group for thunderstorms at all terminals from 19Z to 22Z. Amendments may become necessary, but timing is based on coverage previous days. Any activity will diminish around sunset. /73

MARINE

Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to westerly flow pattern persists across the marine waters in the coming week. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 95 76 95 / 20 40 10 40 Pensacola 79 95 79 95 / 20 50 10 40 Destin 80 93 80 93 / 20 50 10 30 Evergreen 73 96 73 98 / 40 30 10 30 Waynesboro 74 98 74 99 / 30 50 20 20 Camden 73 96 74 97 / 50 20 10 20 Crestview 74 95 74 96 / 30 50 10 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261-262.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201-203-205.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...None.