textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- There is the potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall late this afternoon into Thursday.

- The risk for strong rip currents increases midweek, with a Moderate risk of rip currents anticipated from Wednesday night through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Through Saturday, a series of upper level shortwaves pass over/near the Southeast, having shifted an upper level high over the Gulf further south. This allows the energy to more directly affect the northern Gulf coast. The first round passes over the forecast area later today through tonight. A combination of Mixed Layer Capes around 2000j/kg developing this afternoon, EBWD shear around 60 kts, DCape of 700-900J/kg, and mid level lapse rates around 7C all lead to strong to severe storms, with the full house of threats, damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. 0-1km helicities around 150m^2/s^2 this afternoon rise to around 250m^2/s^2 tonight as a cold front works it way south over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast, enhancing the probability of supercells. Add in guidance advertising good upper divergence as a weaker upper jet just north of the northern Gulf coast works with a stronger one on the front side of a deeper upper trough passing slowly east over the northern part of the Southeast, and SPC has put an Enhanced Risk of severe storms over our northwestern counties and a Slight Risk as far south as a Stone Co to Covington Co line. Timing has individual cells developing this afternoon over Mississippi, increasing in coverage through the afternoon as they shift south ahead of an advancing cold front. Model soundings show a good cap around 10k' over southeast Mississippi helping to limit any taller storms near the forecast area, but the expectation is for this cap to disappear as the mid level shortwaves and upper divergence increases. As instability decreases after sunrise, am expecting the the possiblity of strong storms to decrease through the night. As mentioned above, the full gamut of storm modes is expected, but not to be left out is possible water issues. With a soupy airmass (precipitable h20 levels in the 1.9"-2.2" range), these storms once they get going, are expected to be efficient rainers, with training cells expected, accumulation could locally top 3"-5" the next 12 hours or so, especially over our northern counties. Helping to temper the water issues is the current drought conditions, along with enough greenery to break soils up and allow the water to soak up the water. Still, will need to keep an eye on this also this afternoon through tonight. Thursday, the approaching cold front is expected to sag south across the forecast area in the morning, reaching the coast in the early/mid afternoon. Ahead of this front, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Strong to marginally severe storms are possible, especially in the morning. Isentropic upglide convection along and just north of the front will bring more widespread rain to the forecast area. Other than the possiblity of rowdy storms, am not expecting water issues.

More shortwave energy passes over the forecast area Friday through Saturday, bringing more rounds of precipitation, with elevated rumblers mixed in at times. At this point, will need to increase monitoring of water issues, with accumulations from the previous day adding onto the rainfall amounts. If some areas do not get rid of the water that has fallen, there will be. Our flashier smaller rivers may have issues, along with the more urbanized areas.

Not to forget, with all the rain, near seasonal temperatures today will drop below into Friday. Some sun making to the ground along with a return of better southerly flow as a stronger shortwave approaches the forecast area.

For Saturday night on, have had little time to digest. More energy passes over the Southeast, with a cold front ushering in drier air early in the coming week. A reprieve in the rain is expected Tuesday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, southerly flow over the northern Gulf will continue to bring increased swell to area beaches. Combined with a large tidal range, the next few days a high end Moderate Risk, at times High, is expected through the rest of the week. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

MVFR ceilings will prevail this afternoon, with occasional drops to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama due to scattered light showers. Deeper convection in the form of scattered thunderstorms are expected across interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama starting around mid-afternoon, with occasional drops to LIFR and IFR visibilities due to bouts of heavy rain. These storms are expected to continue in this same region overnight before expanding east and south to the coast late tonight through the remainder of the forecast, with local drops to ceilings and visibilities along with gusty winds. /22

MARINE

Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Light onshore flow increases to a light to moderate flow tonight into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. A light to moderate offshore flow develops behind the front, but quickly shifts to onshore temporarily over the weekend before a passing system brings back light to moderate offshore flow Sunday. /16

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Daily rainfall, both over and north of the forecast area, is expected to cause rises in rivers. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 81 63 76 / 50 80 10 60 Pensacola 73 82 66 77 / 30 70 10 40 Destin 72 81 66 78 / 30 70 10 30 Evergreen 68 80 57 75 / 80 80 0 40 Waynesboro 66 77 57 73 / 90 50 0 40 Camden 67 76 56 73 / 100 70 0 30 Crestview 71 84 60 78 / 40 90 10 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.