textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will bring beneficial rainfall to the area with 2 to 3 inches expected with the greatest totals most likely near the coast where localized amounts greater than 3 inches will be possible. - Strong northerly winds tonight into Sunday morning will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

- A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail will be possible along the immediate coast and across the marine areas. Waterspouts will also be possible over the offshore waters of the Gulf.

UPDATE

Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A surface front has sagged south this morning and now is stalled across our marine zones just south of Buoy 42012 (12s of Orange Beach) and extending westward near the coast of southern Louisiana and into south Texas. Strong southwesterly flow aloft associated with an active subtropical jet stream extends from the eastern Pacific northeast across Texas and along the Gulf Coast. A series of shortwaves embedded within the mid and upper level flow will move across the forecast area through Saturday. The first of these shortwaves is analyzed by water vapor imagery over eastern Texas where widespread rain with embedded elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in response to the enhanced forcing aloft.

Further east towards our area, a deep moist airmass remains in place with areas of mainly light rain developing within a broad zone of low level moisture advection and isentropic ascent. Areas of mainly light rain should persist through much of the day along with cooler temperatures which will struggle to rise but only a few degrees from current morning low temperatures as cold air advection to the north of the stalled front offshore persists over much of the area. Updated to lower high temperatures and increase pops this morning over the entire area.

Latest high resolution model guidance suggests the increased potential for elevated thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight as low level flow above the low level stable layer below roughly 3kft increases. This low level jet is modeled to increase to between 25-35kts by this evening in advance of the approaching shortwave aloft and associated surface low lifting northeast along the front just off the coast. There are some signals that as this occurs, elevated instability with MUCAPES potentially greater than 500j/kg may develop above the near surface stable layer along with steepening mid level lapse rates potentially exceeding 6.5c/km. At this time, the surface front is likely to remain just offshore helping to keep any surface based severe convection over the Gulf. Strong shear within the elevated destabilizing layer in excess of 50kts and nearly straight hodographs within this elevated layer may support a few elevated splitting supercells which may pose a risk for isolated large hail if the degree of elevated instability and shear materialize mainly to the south of Interstate 10 along the coast. This threat potential will be monitored closely by the day shift and additional updates on any potential threat will be provided.

In addition, there will be the potential for widespread rain totals through Saturday evening between 2 and 3 inches areawide, with locally higher amounts potentially up to 5 inches along the immediate coast in areas where thunderstorms train across the same areas. This rainfall will be mainly beneficial but some localized ponding of water will be possible if high rain rates can be sustained for any extended period of time. All forecast updates have been sent. /JLH

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A surface ridge builds into the forecast region through Sunday then shifts off to the east early next week as a low pressure system develops over the Plains. The low pressure system lifts well off to the north, and in the process brings a cold front through the forecast area between Wednesday into Wednesday night. Dry conditions are expected for the forecast area from Saturday night through Tuesday, then chance pops return for Wednesday and Wednesday night with the frontal passage. Sufficient instability and shear may develop on Wednesday ahead of the front to support some strong storms and will need to monitor. Mostly dry conditions develop over the area on Thursday in the wake of the front, though some isolated patches of rain may be possible going into Friday. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Monday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Lowering ceilings are expected through the day along with increased potential for rain and eventually a few thunderstorms by late this afternoon. Mainly MVFR ceilings with temporary periods of IFR ceilings and visibilities can be expected through early this evening.

Heavier rainfall and thunderstorms will likely result in further reductions to IFR conditions areawide with even a low potential for LIFR conditions at times from reduced visibilities in heavy rainfall. This should continue through much of the evening and into the overnight hours. In addition, strong northerly winds should develop and become sustained between 15 and 20 kts, with gusts between 25 and 30 kts possible tonight. /JLH

MARINE

Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Moderate northeast to easterly flow will continue today and increase in intensity this evening and remain strong from the northeast and east from tonight through Saturday night as a low pressure system passes across the marine areas. Numerous showers and thunderstorms can also be expected later today through Saturday night. A few severe storms will be possible along and south of a frontal boundary that should be near the coast. Any severe storms may pose a threat for strong wind gusts, large hail, and waterspouts. The greatest severe weather threat should be from late this afternoon through Saturday morning. Winds will gradually subside on Sunday as the low pressure moves well to the east. Light onshore flow will return early next week and persist through at least the middle of next week. /JLH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 70 52 70 47 / 90 90 40 0 Pensacola 73 57 68 51 / 80 90 70 0 Destin 74 59 71 53 / 70 90 80 0 Evergreen 68 50 70 41 / 90 90 50 0 Waynesboro 63 50 69 42 / 90 100 30 0 Camden 64 50 68 42 / 90 100 40 0 Crestview 74 53 70 44 / 80 90 70 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>632-650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675.