textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Increasing concern for wildfire activity on Saturday with very dry air, breezy conditions, and dry fuels. Moderate to extreme drought will continue to exacerbate wildfire activity.

- Areas of dense fog will develop after midnight and persist through the early morning hours on Friday.

- Strong marine winds are expected on Saturday behind the front with advisory-level conditions expected. Another bump to advisory- level conditions is possible on Sunday as easterly winds increase.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Main concern overnight is the potential for fog. Probabilistic guidance is highlighting the best chance for dense fog across the eastern and southern portions of the area overnight. Guidance continues to indicate that fog will develop across northwest Florida after midnight and spread into parts of southwest and south-central Alabama, generally along and south/east of I-65. A few ASOS/AWOS sites across northwest Florida have already fallen to 1/2 mile as of midnight. Any fog that develops overnight will persist through sunrise before gradually lifting by mid-morning.

Attention quickly shifts to the critical fire weather conditions expected behind today's "dry" cold front. The surface high draped across the region will remain in place through early this afternoon ahead of the front leading to one more day of well above-average high temperatures. The front will pivot through the local area this evening with little fan-fare as there isn't much moisture for it to tap into. Can't rule out a few isolated showers north of Highway 84 late this afternoon ahead of the front, but most of the area will remain dry as this front passes overhead. Gusty northerly winds are expected overnight and into early Saturday afternoon as a tight pressure gradient sets up behind the front. The combination of dry air and gusty northerly winds on Saturday will contribute to extreme fire behavior (more on this in the fire weather section below). Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than today, so enjoy the brief period of spring-like weather.

Ridging aloft builds back into the region early next week allowing for both the temperatures and moisture to rebound. Isolated showers are possible by Tuesday afternoon as the ridge slides to our east and onshore flow increases. A series of shortwaves dive across the Plains in the middle to latter part of next week leading to increasing rain chances each day through the end of the work week. For now, we aren't necessarily seeing a flood or severe weather signal in the guidance as most of the dynamics remain well to our north and we only get clipped by the rain next week...however, we may need to keep an eye on the system that slides through the area next weekend.

Beach Forecast - Risk for rip currents quickly increases in the strengthening southeasterly flow with a HIGH risk on Sunday and Monday. Rip current MOS probabilities indicate the the risk will likely be moderate on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will likely be high-end moderate conditions. 07/mb

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions will persist through much of the evening. Winds relax overnight as low ceilings and fog quickly develop around midnight. Expect LIFR to VLIFR ceilings and visibilities to overspread much of the area through the pre-dawn hours as winds turn westerly. Fog and ceilings will gradually lift through the morning and will likely return to MVFR by mid-morning. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Light southeasterly to easterly flow turns northerly and increases early Saturday morning behind a front. Small craft conditions are expected early Saturday morning through the early afternoon. Winds turn easterly Saturday night with another increase back to advisory- level conditions from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. No impacts are expected early next week. 07/mb

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The Significant Fire Potential increases to a HIGH on Saturday due to the combination of low relative humidity and gusty northerly winds, which will result in an elevated chance for significant fires and the potential for significant fire growth on existing fires. The ongoing severe to extreme drought conditions across a good chunk of the area will only exacerbate the concern for wildfires. For these reasons, a Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for the entire area on Saturday. Any fires that develop on Saturday will likely spread rapidly. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 86 58 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 81 61 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 75 60 75 57 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 86 52 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 84 52 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 84 51 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 86 55 77 51 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.