textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Fog remains possible through Saturday morning, primarily nearer the coast in association with any marine fog that develops.

- The next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday and Saturday ahead of our next cold front. A couple showers or storms could be strong to severe, mainly Saturday. - Strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from Saturday night into Monday night with the potential for occasional gusts to gale force.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1011 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Anomalously warm weather for this time of the year continues through Saturday ahead of a cold front. Afternoon highs will be near records again Friday and Saturday in the upper 70's to lower 80's areawide. Overnight lows will likewise be well above normal in the middle to upper 60's. Our low temperatures are closer to what we expect for average highs this time of year, running nearly 20 to 25 degrees above normal.

The main forecast headache is likely going to be with respect to sea fog and its propensity to advect onshore the next couple days. Strong low level winds should hinder development again tonight, similar to last night. It's unfortunately not quite as simple as the previous night as the low level jet begins to temporarily lift out prior to daybreak over the southern portions of the area. If winds relax enough there may be a window around daybreak into the morning hours that supports the development of dense sea fog which could impact the morning commute. At this time, confidence is too low to go with any advisories, however trends in forecast guidance and observations will be monitored. We face a similar setup Friday night into Saturday morning, although low level winds may stay somewhat more elevated just above the surface.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected later today as a cold front drapes across the Highway 84 corridor. Depending on how quickly this moves in, we may see a case where temperatures drop into the late morning and afternoon hours over interior areas. This front will either lift back north as a warm front or serve as a stationary front over the area Friday night into Saturday. This boundary will be the focus for the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms, particularly Saturday as an upper trough approaches the area and starts to provide some forcing for ascent across the warm sector. Saturday may be a somewhat interesting day as ample instability builds in to the south of the boundary with the HREF mean SBCAPE values currently sitting around 1,000 j/kg and 90th percentile reaching 1,500 j/kg Saturday afternoon. Some of the additional experimental CAMs are even hinting at upwards of 2,000j/kg building in prior to the front beginning its push south. This coupled with 50 knots of deep layer shear will help to generate multicells and a few supercells along the aforementioned boundary. The shear is generally straight line, which should support splitting storms and messy storm mode with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threat. Despite this, some low level hodograph curvature is evident on CAM guidance in the vicinity of the boundary with around 100 to 150 m2/s2 of low level SRH. This could promote a low end threat for tornadoes, particularly if storm mode can behave and remain rooted on the boundary. For now, the threat remains overall marginal given the limited forcing for ascent but is something to keep an eye on.

A Moderate risk of rip currents persists through Sunday before dropping back to a Low risk late Sunday. While the forecast is not showing a High risk of strong rip currents, forecast guidance is flirting with high probabilities of strong rip currents Saturday. Any increase in confidence on the occurrence of strong rip currents may warrant a bump in the rip current risk for Alabama and western Florida Panhandle beaches.

After we get past this front, temperatures plummet back below normal for a couple days with highs in the 50's and lows in the 20's and 30's Sunday through Tuesday. We return back to near or just above normal mid week with dry weather prevailing Sunday through Thursday. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail in and near the bands of showers across the area this morning. Elsewhere, ceilings have generally lifted to VFR levels as of 11z. Expect ceilings to briefly fall to IFR after sunrise with conditions slowly improving through the late morning and afternoon hours. Showers are expected off and on throughout the day. Southerly winds may gust up to 15 knots this afternoon at the terminals. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1011 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A light to moderate onshore flow will continue through Saturday with potential nighttime and early morning fog development. A strong cold front moves through the area Saturday night, with a strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front. Offshore flow diminishes late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Gusts to gale force are possible late Saturday night through Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for the Saturday night through Tuesday morning timeframe, and a Gale Watch may be necessary if confidence can increase on the occurrence of frequent gale force gusts. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 67 81 46 / 50 20 70 60 Pensacola 79 68 78 49 / 50 30 70 70 Destin 74 67 75 50 / 60 40 70 80 Evergreen 82 67 82 44 / 50 50 80 60 Waynesboro 77 62 79 41 / 50 40 80 30 Camden 76 62 77 41 / 60 50 80 40 Crestview 83 67 83 47 / 60 40 70 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.