textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 - A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday, bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen behind the front along with building seas.

- A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84.

UPDATE

Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Another quiet morning overall. GOES-16 night products and proximity model soundings indicate a rather thick (multi-layer) deck of mid to upper-level clouds in place ranging from 650mb to 300mb, which obs and trends actually shows a steady warming trend due to insolation. Patchy clouds will continue as we roll past daybreak into the morning and afternoon hours as the same broad/weak shortwave over Texas continues to pump mid to upper tropospheric moisture across Mexico across the coastal SE US. Only continued adjustment was to knock down dewpoints in the afternoon following PBL mixing nearing the NBM10th percentile. Otherwise, a nice day ahead again! KLG

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A weakening upper low over Texas breaks down to an open wave then is absorbed into a rather large upper trof that evolves over the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday into Thursday. This latter feature will bring a strong cold front through the forecast area mainly from Thursday morning into the early afternoon. A gradual warming trend continues ahead of the approaching front along with improving deep layer moisture, sufficient to allow for isolated to scattered convection to develop over the southern portion of the area on Wednesday. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well inland to near 50 at the coast then trend by Wednesday night to range from the lower 50s inland to near 60 at the coast. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s. The cold front ushers in much cooler and drier air, with lows by Friday night ranging from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the immediate coast. Lows Saturday night will be similar. This continues to look to have the potential to bring the first light freeze of the season to the northern portion of the area Friday night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84. NBM probabilities for dropping below 32F are about 20-60% in this portion Friday night and 20-70% Saturday night, with the highest potential generally over northern Choctaw and northern Wilcox counties. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s, then highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures begin to moderate on Sunday, with highs in the lower to mid 60s along with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid/upper 30s well inland to around 50 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Wednesday with a moderate risk for Thursday. A low risk follows for Friday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the TAF cycle. Only expecting periods of FEW to BKN at 150-250 throughout the day with calm/weak surface winds, turning calm tonight. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

High pressure over the area will continue to promote light winds and calm waves/seas through Wednesday. Winds increase out of the west late Wednesday into early Thursday ahead of an approaching strong cold front, expected to pass the area Thursday morning. This will lead to an increase in offshore moderate to strong flow Thursday and Friday. Expect small craft advisory conditions in this time frame with winds 20-25kts and gusts to 30kts. Waves/seas respond reaching 1-2ft for protected waters, 2-3ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 3-5 ft for outer Gulf zones. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next weekend. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 78 55 77 56 / 0 10 20 0 Pensacola 75 61 75 62 / 10 0 20 0 Destin 75 61 74 63 / 10 0 20 0 Evergreen 77 49 75 51 / 0 0 10 0 Waynesboro 78 51 78 53 / 0 0 10 0 Camden 75 49 74 53 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 78 51 75 52 / 0 0 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.