textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- A much drier airmass persists across the area, leading to an elevated fire danger risk through Tuesday.

- A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.

- Rain chances increase by late week and into the upcoming weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to an increased potential for flooding, is possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1103 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A dry airmass will continue to filter into the region, and the risk for wildfires remains the main concern as minimum relative humidity (RH) values this afternoon are expected to lower to around 20-30% away from the coast. We still expect the sustained winds and wind gusts to remain around 10 mph or less, well below Red Flag Warning criteria. However, factoring in the dry antecedent conditions and Moderate to Severe Drought across much of the area, there exists an elevated fire danger risk through at least Monday night and possibly into Tuesday.Some recovery is expected Wednesday as RH values recover into the 30-45% range.

A surface ridge will then set up across the southern Appalachians and the Southeast region, allowing for winds to slowly shift easterly today (southeasterly along the coast) to southeasterly for all areas Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow low-level moisture to return into the forecast area with heat indices increasing into the middle to upper 90s by Thursday. Rain chances also start to increase mainly during the day Thursday, and especially into Friday and the upcoming weekend as an upper trough approaches from the west. There are some indications that we could enter a rather active pattern which features several rounds of very heavy rainfall over multiple days, which could ultimately lead to an increased potential of flooding.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected to continue through Tuesday night. The rip current risk quickly increases to a High Risk by Thursday as onshore flow increases. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions expected over the area through the forecast. Light overnight winds will become southerly 5 to 10 knots as a seabreeze moves inland, then return to light after sunset. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Light and variable flow continues through Tuesday. A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow develops Wednesday, persisting through the weekend. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the weekend. Small Craft should exercise caution beginning Wednesday night. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 67 88 72 88 / 0 10 0 60 Pensacola 72 87 75 86 / 0 10 10 60 Destin 73 86 75 86 / 0 10 20 60 Evergreen 61 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 40 Waynesboro 62 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 50 Camden 60 92 67 90 / 0 0 0 20 Crestview 66 90 69 89 / 0 10 0 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.