textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Elevated rain chances persist through at least early next week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents persists through Monday with a High risk for strong, potentially life threatening rip currents likely returning Tuesday into Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Through Monday...Shortwave energy moves over the southwestern Conus, then Southern Plains before being deflected northeast by an upper ridge centered over the northern Caribbean. The pattern maintains a surface front stretching from southern Tx to the Tennessee River Valley. A soupy airmass is maintained south of the front( precipitable h20 values in the 1.8"-2.0" range) by a modest consistent onshore flow. The combination of a very moist airmass along with the stream of passing energy will help fire off daily showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms may become strong to severe, especially well northwest of I-65, with the passing energy bringing modest mid level height drops. Also, water issues will need to be monitored for, with the soupy airmass allowing for the thunderstorms to be efficient rainers. Any focusing boundaries developing, and the risk of water issues goes up. Better rain chances northwest of I-65 will continue to create a discontinuity in temperatures, with below seasonal norms low 80s northwest of I-65, near seasonal norms mid/upper 80s southeast. The soupy airmass and increased cloud cover, along with upper subsidence will keep low temperatures above seasonal norms, around 70 well inland, low to mid 70s along and closer to the coast.

Tuesday on, the upper ridge over the Caribbean hangs tough until a series of stronger shortwaves moving through a deepening upper low over the western Conus shifts the Caribbean high south. Temperatures around to a bit below seasonal norms and above seasonal PoPs continue. Even so, best rain amounts remain northwest of I-65 through the week.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches. Consistent onshore flow varies in strength, with onshore swell varying in response. The tidal cycle slowly decreases into the coming week, but the Rip Risk remains moderate to at times high through most of the period. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR flight category generally prevails across the area to start the morning with a couple spots of MVFR flight category where some patchy fog developed. VFR flight category is expected to prevail through today into this evening, but temporary reductions by several flight categories becomes possible late morning into the afternoon hours underneath any heavy showers or storms. Winds will generally stay out of the south at 5 to 10 knots today. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through this weekend and into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 86 72 85 72 / 70 50 80 60 Pensacola 84 74 85 74 / 60 40 50 40 Destin 84 74 84 74 / 60 20 40 40 Evergreen 84 69 86 70 / 80 30 80 30 Waynesboro 86 69 83 69 / 70 40 90 70 Camden 83 68 84 68 / 70 30 90 60 Crestview 87 70 88 71 / 80 40 60 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.