textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected through Friday for local area beaches.

- Rain chances are expected to increase late Friday into Saturday, with a few strong storms possible west of the Alabama River.

UPDATE

Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

So far, the forecast is on track for today. There are one or two sites reporting lower visibilites due to fog at this hour, but they are few. There is a High Risk of Rip currents today, but am expecting this to ease tonight into Saturday.

Areas along and west of the Alabama River remain a Marginal risk of strong to severe storms.This convection is expected to move w east across the forecast area soon after sunset. Damaging winds and large hail continue to be the biggest threats. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A large upper trof over the western half of the CONUS becomes oriented mostly across the northwestern states to the Great Lakes region on Friday, then evolves into a positively tilted system over the western half of the CONUS on Sunday. The upper trof pattern changes again as a vigorous system ejects off across the Plains and the interior eastern states through early next week. In response to this, a surface low passing well to the north brings a trailing cold front into the northern periphery of the forecast area on Saturday. This feature along with a series of shortwaves moving across the area will support pops increasing to predominately likely to categorical pops on Saturday. One concern to monitor on subsequent updates is that the latest CAMs indicate that an MCS will form upstream on Friday and weaken while progressing into about the western half of the forecast area Friday night. Should this play out, higher pops will become necessary Friday night, but for now have gone with slight chance to chance pops. In addition, should the MCS maintain sufficient strength while moving into the area, there is the potential for strong storms, and a few severe storms could occur as well. This is conditional at this point, and SPC has this handled well with a Marginal Risk for the western fourth of the area.

The frontal boundary meanders close to this position through Sunday, then lifts off to the north on Monday as a low pressure system advances from the Plains to the Great Lakes region. Have continued with mainly chance pops for Sunday then for Monday will have a slight chance for rain over inland areas. A broad upper trof develops over much of the northern states going into midweek then becomes oriented mostly over the interior eastern states on Thursday. A series of shortwaves move across the forecast area within a quasi-zonal flow over the region, and yet another surface low passing well off to the north looks to bring a weak frontal boundary into the forecast area between Wednesday and Thursday. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for Tuesday through Thursday for now. A High Risk of rip currents continues through Friday then trends to a low risk for Saturday through Tuesday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions will see temporary drops to IFR levels as fog develops towards sunrise. VFR conditions are expected through the day, with an approaching mesoscale complex approaching the forecast area late in the forecast. This system will bring IFR or lower conditions in heavy rain. /16

MARINE

Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly flow prevails through Friday, then becomes southerly to southwesterly for Friday night through early next week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 65 83 65 / 10 30 60 30 Pensacola 79 67 81 67 / 10 20 50 30 Destin 77 68 78 68 / 0 10 50 30 Evergreen 86 60 84 61 / 20 40 80 40 Waynesboro 83 62 83 63 / 30 40 80 30 Camden 84 62 81 62 / 20 40 90 40 Crestview 84 61 85 62 / 10 20 60 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.