textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 748 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026 - A Particularly Dangerous and Life Threatening Flash Flood Situation exists across the area today with a High Risk for Flooding across portions of southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle. Considerable Flash Flooding is likely and Catastrophic Flash Flooding is possible through tonight.

- Numerous marine hazards exist across the area. There remains a HIGH RISK of rip currents through Saturday for Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Minor coastal flooding is occurring around Mobile Bay today. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today through Friday. Strong winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft from through this evening.

- There is a Slight Risk for Severe Storms for much of the area through tonight with a risk of a few tornadoes.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 748 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A secondary line of deep convection has developed this evening and is spreading east southeastward over the southern zones. This convection is tracking east along a strong SBCAPE (1000-2000 J/KG) gradient aligned from Mobile Co, eastward to the Florida Panhandle. Bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts in this zone supports severe weather potential this evening. 0-1KM helicity (200-300 m2/s2) is also more than adequate for rotating updrafts and radar has shown tornadic signatures this evening. Will also be watching for bowing line segments and strengthening/potentially severe rear flank downdraft straight line winds. Storms have a had a history of high rain rates and this continues in the strongest convection. Flash flood risk remains moderate to high tonight. /10

..BEACH FORECAST

Hazardous and life-threatening beach conditions continue with all area beaches flying double red flags today. The rip current risk is now a HIGH for all Florida and Alabama beaches through Saturday afternoon. NWPS shows breakers of 5-8 feet and a High Surf Advisory was issued through Friday evening for the entire Gulf coastline in our area.

SS/97

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Forecasters are watching a secondary line of deep convection dropping southeast at 15 to 20 kts out of southeast MS and will impact MOB/BFM terminals between 19.00/19.02Z with strong gusty winds, cigs dropping to IFR categories and vsbys to lower to LIFR/VLIFR briefly in +RA. Will monitor trends before including in near term forecast further east at JKA/PNS. May be a lull in activity late in the night before tsra chances return Fri. /10

MARINE

Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A moderate to strong southerly to southwesterly flow will persist through tonight with seas ramping up to 7 to 9 feet today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most of the marine area until 6 am Friday. The onshore flow gradually diminishes to a light to moderate southwesterly flow on Friday, with a primarily light southwesterly flow expected this weekend. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 90 75 89 / 80 70 70 70 Pensacola 80 91 78 89 / 60 60 70 70 Destin 80 89 78 87 / 50 70 50 60 Evergreen 73 87 72 87 / 100 90 80 90 Waynesboro 74 88 73 88 / 70 80 80 90 Camden 72 84 71 84 / 90 80 70 90 Crestview 76 89 74 89 / 80 80 70 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ630>632-634- 650-655-670-675.