textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1038 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

- Moderate to strong winds over the marine area will probably create hazardous conditions for small craft Friday night into Saturday.

- The rip current risk will steadily increase Friday into Saturday, potentially becoming a High risk for life threatening rip currents Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1038 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

A large upper trof over the eastern states gradually retreats to over the extreme northeast states and adjacent eastern Canada through Friday night. A series of shortwaves progress across the southern/central Plains Thursday and into the eastern states on Friday, with a well defined shortwave trof meanwhile following a similar path and amplifying while progressing across the southeastern states Saturday into Saturday night. A surface low associated with this pattern moves from the southern Plains on Thursday afternoon to across the north central Gulf coast states, and in the process brings a cold front through the forecast area on Saturday. Dry conditions continue through Thursday night, then will have slight chance to chance pops return to the forecast on Friday mainly west of I-65. Likely to categorical pops shift across the area Friday night into Saturday, with dry conditions developing by Saturday evening and continuing through Wednesday. Instability appears to remain limited Friday night, but as noted by the previous shift, the slower timing of this next front does allow for more time for better moisture to advect into the area. The result is that MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg could materialize on Saturday mainly along and east of I-65 before the front moves through. While veering in wind profiles is modest, 0-6 km bulk shear values around 50 knots will be present which indicates a potential for strong gusty winds. We will continue to monitor this situation.

Tonight will be cool and range from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast, then overnight lows trend to the mid 50s to lower 60s by Friday night, values which are around 20 degrees above normal. After the frontal passage, lows by Sunday night drop to just above normal values, mid 30s to mid 40s, but then trend to 10-20 degrees above normal by Tuesday night. Highs trend warmer to the mid 60s to lower 70s by Friday, around 10 degrees above normal, then by Sunday decrease to near seasonable values in the lower to mid 60s. A moderating trend follows through Wednesday to mostly in the lower 70s, which will be about 10-15 degrees above normal. A low risk of rip currents continues through Thursday night, then a moderate risk is expected on Friday. A high risk is expected on Friday night and Saturday, with a moderate risk for Saturday night, then a low risk follows for Sunday and Monday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions continue through Thursday morning. Northwesterly winds become westerly 5-10 knots today then diminish to 5 knots or less tonight. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1038 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Light to moderate northwesterly to westerly winds continue through Thursday. A southwesterly flow develops Thursday night and strengthens through Friday night. Winds shift out of the northwest late Saturday as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow diminishes on Sunday then becomes southeasterly on Monday. A Small Craft Advisory will probably become necessary for much of the marine area Friday night into Saturday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 37 65 48 70 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 42 65 52 70 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 44 63 53 69 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 32 65 41 70 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 34 65 43 70 / 0 0 0 30 Camden 32 63 42 66 / 0 0 0 30 Crestview 32 65 43 70 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.