textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the rest of the week, potentially increasing in coverage over the weekend.

- Heat indices will trend upward through mid week, reaching around 100-107 degrees Thursday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Through Friday...a closed upper low over the Southeast opens and moves off as upper highs over the Desert Southwest and off the East Coast build east/west over the Southern Plains and Southeast, leaving a weakness over the Southeast. A weakly organized surface low over the eastern half of the Southeast opens and moves off with the upper dynamics. A surface ridge shifts north and builds over the Southeast from the eastern upper ridge, restoring onshore flow over the Southeast. A drier airmass (precipitable h20 values around 1.5", with the drier air being above 700mb) that has pushed over the western half of the Southeast sees alternate bands of drier and moister air moving over the region through the end of the week. An uptick in PoPs comes Wednesday and Thursday, though a downward trend occurs Friday into the weekend as upper subsidence increases with the building upper ridge. The drier air above surface may enhance any stronger storms developing Wednesday and Thursday. Enough instability is present for stronger storms each day (MLCapes of 1500-2000J/kg), though any organizing shear is limited. Soundings show DCapes rising above 1000J/kg each afternoon, enough for strong to severe downbursts. the Temperatures through Friday remain at or above seasonal norms, with higher temperatures over the western half of the forecast area (closer to the Southern Plains upper ridge) rising above. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s expected each day, around 90 along the coast. Low temperatures in the around 70 to low 70s tonight (mid 70s along the coast) rise to the low to low to mid 70s by Wednesday night (upper 70s along the coast). Heat indices in the 95-101 degree range today rise into the 100 to 107 degree range by Thursday, though with the inconsistent moisture handling this may be delayed until Friday.

Friday night on, the upper ridge off the East Coast becomes dominant and expands over the Southeast over the weekend, with the surface ridge over the Southeast becoming more organized. Moisture levels rise back over 2". Rain chances increase through the weekend in response, though the building upper ridge will help to temper the PoPs, to a bit above seasonal norms. Temperatures remain a bit above seasonal norms through the weekend, with daytime Heat Indices generally in the 100-107 degree range.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, the Low Risk today through midweek. By the end of the week, a more organized onshore flow will increase the Rip Risk to an upper Low to Moderate in the coming weekend, with our Florida beaches seeing the better chance of a Moderate Risk. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

General westerly flow over area waters will shift to southerly through the week. Near the coast, a night-time offshore, afternoon/ evening onshore component will provide a more diurnally variable flow to area waters. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 93 73 93 73 / 10 0 30 0 Pensacola 91 77 93 77 / 10 0 20 10 Destin 89 78 89 78 / 10 0 10 10 Evergreen 91 70 92 71 / 10 0 20 10 Waynesboro 93 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 89 71 91 73 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 92 71 93 71 / 10 0 30 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.