textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 647 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026 - Extreme Heat Warning in effect for coastal areas with a Heat Advisory for remainder of the area today.

- High Risk of rip currents is expected to return by this weekend for all area beaches.

- Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances increase through the end of the week and into the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

UPDATE

Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The dangerous heat conditions will continue through today with high temperatures reaching into the middle to upper 90s and heat indices ranging from between 108 and 115 degrees, highest near the coast. There are some mid level clouds advecting southeast into the area this morning. At this time, it appears that these clouds should thin out by mid to late morning and not hinder high temperatures. This will be monitored closely and could result in temperatures a bit lower than currently forecast if they remain thicker than currently anticipated.

By later this afternoon, an upper level shortwave dropping southeast around the periphery of the retreating upper ridge will help to enhance lift, especially across the northeastern half of the forecast area where scattered storms should develop by later this afternoon and then advance southeast towards the coast by evening. The environment should be moderately unstable which will allow for a continuation for a few locally strong to marginally severe storms with localized strong to damaging wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Storm chances should linger into this evening as a weak frontal boundary drops into the area and stalls. Overall the forecast looks on track and no major updates are needed at this time. /JLH

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

One more very hot day today before a pattern change brings cooler temps and higher rain chances. Highs today will again climb into the upper 90s to around 100. The combination of the high temps and high humidity will send heat index values into the 110 to 115 range along the coast and 105 to 110 level across the remainder of the area. An Extreme Heat Warning continues for the immediate coast with a Heat Advisory across the remainder of the area.

Thursday through the end of the week, the upper ridge will weaken as an upper trough over the eastern states digs southward. This will erode the eastern side of the ridge as a weak frontal boundary sinks southward. The cooler mid level temps along with the frontal boundary will bring increased chances of rain for the latter half of the week. Additional impulses moving through the upper trough, cooler mid level temps and weak sfc convergence along a stalled boundary over the area will continue high rain chances through the weekend, with scattered to numerous showers and storms each day. The storms will be moist numerous during peak heating. The additional clouds and rain will knock high temps back into the upper 80s and low 90s for the end of the week into the weekend. /13

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions should continue through the period with the exception for brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities later this afternoon and evening when scattered storms will develop. Winds will primarily be driven by the diurnal variations associated with the sea/land breezes and convective outflows. /JLH

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A diurnal wind pattern is expected is expected to persist through the week with light to moderate onshore winds each day driven by the sea breeze and light to moderate offshore winds each night driven by the land breeze. Storm coverage will increase through the end of this week with widespread coverage by the weekend. Winds and waves will be locally higher near any storms along the increased threat for dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop over the Gulf waters by the weekend. /JLH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 97 77 93 74 / 20 20 80 40 Pensacola 97 79 93 77 / 30 20 70 40 Destin 93 81 91 78 / 30 20 70 50 Evergreen 98 75 94 72 / 20 40 60 20 Waynesboro 98 75 95 73 / 20 50 70 20 Camden 95 75 93 73 / 30 50 40 20 Crestview 98 76 94 73 / 40 40 80 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>264.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201-203-205.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.