textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 643 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 - Thunderstorm chances increase again Friday afternoon through the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend for all area beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The heat finally begins to relax as we enter a much more active pattern for showers and thunderstorms late week into the weekend. Upper troughing begins to nudge its way into the area as upper ridging retreats westward, allowing for northerly flow aloft to prevail through Friday night and more westerly flow around the base of the trough this weekend. This will allow for several weak shortwaves to track across the region over the next few days, providing for daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A surface cold front attempts to work its way southward towards the area, but will likely hang up just north of the forecast area. Today is the last day of heat advisories as heat indices rise into the 108 to 112 range this afternoon, with heat indices below criteria in the 100 to 105 range Friday areawide. With that said, high temperatures top out in the middle to upper 90's today and upper 80's to lower 90's Friday and into the weekend. Overnight lows stay hot in the middle to upper 70's.

With the increase in coverage of showers and storms, there will also be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms any given afternoon through this weekend. Some mid-level dry air begins working its way into the area which should allow for more robust downdrafts with any storms. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts associated with these microbursts will be possible in any storm, particularly as we get into the weekend. Shear is fairly weak, but can't rule out some loosely organized multi-cell clusters or bowing segments. In addition to this, locally heavy rainfall is likely with storms. If storms train over the same areas or decide to sit over any given location for a prolonged period of time, localized flash flooding could be possible.

As we head into next week the upper trough lifts out and we gradually get upper ridging to work its way back into the area. Afternoon highs warm into the lower to middle 90's again and rain chances diminish to more isolated to scattered coverage each day next week.

A Moderate risk of rip currents continues today through Friday, becoming a High risk of rip currents for all area beaches as we get into the weekend. MM/25

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Friday afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again Friday afternoon and evening, temporarily reducing flight category and potentially producing variable and strong wind gusts. Winds generally out of the west around 5 to 10 knots relax to light and variable tonight. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Small Craft should exercise caution this weekend, and forecast trends will be monitored for the potential need of Small Craft Advisories at some point this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 91 75 91 / 50 70 40 50 Pensacola 79 91 77 89 / 30 70 60 60 Destin 80 90 78 88 / 40 60 60 80 Evergreen 73 90 72 88 / 40 70 60 80 Waynesboro 75 91 73 91 / 40 70 30 40 Camden 74 89 73 86 / 30 60 50 70 Crestview 75 91 73 88 / 40 80 60 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-059- 261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...None.