textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- A strong system could bring gusty winds and strong to severe storms to the area late Saturday night into Sunday.

- Strong marine winds are anticipated Saturday night into Sunday night with the potential for occasional gusts to gale force resulting in hazardous boating conditions.

- High Surf may cause issues, particularly in trouble spots across coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with potential for overwash and beach erosion Saturday night into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1011 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

All eyes are on our next impactful weather system this coming weekend bringing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, gusty winds, high surf and a high risk of rip currents. An upper trough pushes across the gulf coast states allowing for a substantial increase in rain and thunderstorm chances late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Surface low pressure develops and the pressure gradient tightens up across the area as strong upper difluence overspreads the area. This should allow for a pretty substantial mass response bringing warm, moist air northward off the Gulf into the forecast area. There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in association with a highly forced line of thunderstorms Sunday morning. Forecast guidance has tended to ever so slightly slow things down, bringing the line through during the morning hours as opposed to the pre-dawn hours. If this were to remain the case, then a more robust potential for severe weather could be on the table as more moisture is able to move into the area in conjunction with surface heating helping to build in adequate surface based instability ahead of the storms. Ample wind shear will be in place with large, curved hodographs yielding 200 to 300+ m2/s2 SRH and deep layer shear values approaching 50 to 60 knots. While the storm mode is anticipated to remain predominantly linear, there will be the potential for tornadoes within the line itself in addition to strong to damaging wind gusts.

The better potential for strong to severe storms will probably reside further east into areas along and east of the I-65 corridor, especially over far south-central AL into the FL panhandle, where the best overlap of instability and shear exists. There's still timing differences on the guidance and its entirely possible this speeds back up, but trends the past 24 hours have slowed the forward progression of the trough and likewise the eventual line of storms. Any further slowing of the line of storms could impact Mardi Gras festivities during the day Sunday.

Strong gusty winds will also be possible outside of showers and storms, particularly in advance of the line of storms, owing to a strong 40 to 50kt low level jet developing across the area. While wind advisory criteria gusts are not forecast at the moment, I won't be surprised if we get close in spots with frequent gusts in the 25 to 35mph range nearer the coast. A High Surf Advisory or Warning may be needed this weekend for Saturday night into Sunday as surf heights rapidly increase into the 5 to 9 foot range along coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. In the wake of the system, we don't really cool off much and maintain well above normal highs and lows through next week, perhaps even approaching record high territory once again late next week. A Low risk of rip currents today becomes a Moderate risk by Friday and a High risk for Saturday into Sunday. MM/25

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours for much of the area. The only exception is over portions of Stone and George counties, as well as southern Mobile and Baldwin counties where IFR or lower ceilings, and possibly some patchy fog, may develop during the late evening and into the overnight hours. At this time, these lower ceilings/visibilities should occur south of the KMOB and KBFM TAF sites. Winds through the period will be light and rather variable. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1011 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A light to occasionally moderate offshore flow will prevail through tonight. Light onshore flow returns late Friday, becoming moderate Saturday morning and strong Saturday night into Sunday. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Saturday evening through Sunday evening, with the potential for a Gale Watch if confidence on stronger wind gusts increases.A moderate to strong offshore flow becomes established Sunday night in the wake of a cold front, gradually waning to a light to moderate offshore flow by Monday afternoon. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 48 73 52 73 / 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 50 70 53 68 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 52 68 53 67 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 41 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 44 73 49 75 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 40 70 47 73 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 42 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.