textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Several rounds of beneficial rainfall are expected through Saturday morning with rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches which should help alleviate the severe to extreme drought conditions. - Strong northerly winds late Friday night into Sunday morning will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A weakening cut off upper low near the Baja area shears out across the south central states through Friday and starts to become absorbed into a positively tilted upper trof pattern stretching from near the 4 Corners area to the interior eastern states. A series of shortwaves (remnants of the upper low) progress across the southeast states Friday night, with the upper trof pattern taking on a meridional orientation over the eastern states by Saturday. In response to this pattern, a surface low is expected to develop over the northwest Gulf on Friday then track into the Big Bend area of the western Florida panhandle before continuing quickly off into the western Atlantic on Saturday. This system will bring numerous to widespread showers with embedded storms to the area mainly from Friday into Friday night, with the precipitation ending from west to east on Saturday. Based on the expected trajectory of the surface low, am not expecting severe storm development over land portions of the forecast area but will need to monitor for strong marine convection.

A surface ridge builds into the forecast region through Sunday then shifts off to the east early next week as a low pressure system develops over the Plains. The low pressure system lifts well off to the north, and in the process brings a cold front through the forecast area between Wednesday into Wednesday night. Dry conditions are expected for the forecast area from Saturday night through Tuesday, then chance pops return for Wednesday and Wednesday night with the frontal passage. Sufficient instability and shear may develop on Wednesday ahead of the front to support some strong storms and will need to monitor. Mostly dry conditions develop over the area on Thursday in the wake of the front, though some isolated patches of rain may be possible going into Friday. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Monday. /29

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Scattered to numerous patches of light rain overnight will be followed by numerous to widespread showers and storms on Friday. Ceilings lower to IFR/MVFR overnight with similar conditions expected through Friday, with predominately IFR conditions expected Friday evening. North to northeast winds around 5 knots or less overnight increase to 5-10 knots on Friday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Moderate northeast to easterly flow will continue today and increase in intensity this evening and remain strong from the northeast and east from tonight through Saturday night as a low pressure system passes across the marine areas. Numerous showers and thunderstorms can also be expected later today through Saturday night. A few severe storms will be possible along and south of a frontal boundary that should be near the coast. Any severe storms may pose a threat for strong wind gusts, large hail, and waterspouts. The greatest severe weather threat should be from late this afternoon through Saturday morning. Winds will gradually subside on Sunday as the low pressure moves well to the east. Light onshore flow will return early next week and persist through at least the middle of next week. /JLH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 70 52 70 47 / 90 90 40 0 Pensacola 73 57 68 51 / 80 90 70 0 Destin 74 59 71 53 / 70 90 80 0 Evergreen 68 50 70 41 / 90 90 50 0 Waynesboro 63 50 69 42 / 90 100 30 0 Camden 64 50 68 42 / 90 100 40 0 Crestview 74 53 70 44 / 80 90 70 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>632-650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675.