textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. There is the potential for this system to bring heavy rains and high winds to the area.

- A High Risk of rip currents is in effect through at least Saturday night. A Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet.

- Moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds will create hazardous for small craft through Thursday night, with the potential for tropical conditions on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The main concern during much of the forecast period is Tropical Depression Nine, which is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday as a hurricane. Dry conditions are expected through Thursday, with a slight chance for rain near the immediate coast Thursday night. Per the National Hurricane Center, the forecast cone for TD Nine extends from extreme southeast Louisiana to roughly near Destin, Florida, with a landfall anticipated Friday night. Regardless of where landfall occurs within the forecast cone, this system will likely bring the threat of flash flooding and life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. There is also the potential for wind and surge impacts depending on the eventual track. A High Risk of rip currents remains in effect through at least Saturday night. Surf height values build during the day on Friday, with the potential for surf heights of 10+ feet Friday night into Saturday night before subsiding. For Friday, WPC has a marginal risk of flash flooding over interior areas and a slight risk elsewhere, then a slight risk follows for the entire area on Saturday. In addition, there is the potential for tornadoes to develop, mainly during the day on Saturday though the timing and placement will depend on the eventual track of the tropical system. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from NWS mobile and from the National Hurricane Center. Rain chances on Sunday will be mostly chance, then decrease to slight chance to chance pops on Monday with mostly dry conditions following for Tuesday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. A surface boundary stalled south of the coast will create a general northeasterly flow through the forecast. Stronger winds are expected closer to the coast, tapering to light winds well inland. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A moderate to strong northeast to east flow will continue through Thursday. Seas increase to 4 to 8 feet creating rough conditions offshore. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through late- week. Conditions may worsen late in the week and into the weekend due to the potential for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 85 65 82 / 0 0 10 50 Pensacola 70 84 69 80 / 0 10 10 70 Destin 70 84 70 81 / 0 10 20 70 Evergreen 60 87 61 83 / 0 0 0 40 Waynesboro 61 87 61 84 / 0 0 0 20 Camden 58 87 59 84 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 63 83 63 79 / 0 0 10 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.