textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 306 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and Tuesday.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday night through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

An anomalously strong upper-level ridge is expected to maintain its hold over our local area through Wednesday as it remains anchored over the Tennessee River Valley. At the surface, observations across the region indicate that a weak boundary looks to be draped across our area, stretching from our southeast Mississippi counties into our coastal counties this afternoon. This subtle boundary looks to be separating mid to upper 60 dewpoints to its north from low to mid 70 dewpoints to its south. Although subsidence from the ridge aloft, along with the drier air filtering in from the northeast, will help to keep rain chances low for the remainder of today and into Tuesday, still cannot rule out a few isolated showers, and perhaps a storm or two, developing along this boundary or along the sea breeze. Highs today and tomorrow will top out in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices generally around 100-107 degrees.

By the Wednesday through Friday timeframe, a rather interesting upper flow pattern sets up across the area. An inverted upper-level trough/low is expected to develop over the western Atlantic, just off the North/South Carolina coast. This upper feature will then push southwestward, crossing Florida on Thursday, and will enter the northeast Gulf on Friday. As this happens, the aforementioned upper ridge will start to retrograde westward, pushing into the Central Plains by Friday. The strong gradient between these two features will allow for a strengthening northeasterly flow pattern to become prevalent aloft, allowing for a much drier airmass to filter into the area from the Appalachians (thanks to cold air damming processes). In fact, dew points Wednesday and Thursday nights may drop into the upper 50s to low 60s for our interior counties. Although highs will still be quite warm (upper 80s to low 90s), our lows are expected to drop into the mid to upper 60s for many areas north of I-10. The main hazards to watch out for during this time will be at our beaches. As this drier air filters in, strong easterly winds along the coast will help to increase surf heights at our local beaches to around 4-5 feet Wednesday and Thursday. Any further increase to these heights will likely result in a High Surf Advisory for the coast. Regardless, residents and visitors are urged to stay out of the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday, as a High Risk of life threatening rip currents will be in place for all local beaches.

Unfortunately our initial small taste of fall looks to be rather short-lived as moisture values and rain chances quickly increase for the weekend. The upper trough/low should begin pushing to our west Friday night into Saturday, causing our upper winds to shift to southeasterly. With deep moisture being advected in from the Gulf, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to return for the weekend, mainly during the afternoon hours. It should be noted that the latest 12z run from the Euro and its ensembles hint at the possiblity that the upper low may linger just to our east, which would lean towards a bit of a drier scenario. Although right now the forecast leans toward the wetter solution, will be monitoring trends over the coming days and will adjust PoPs accordingly. /96

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A light diurnal flow pattern continues through tonight, becoming a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow on Tuesday. A moderate to strong easterly flow will develop Wednesday through Friday, gradually relaxing into the weekend. 1 foot seas persist through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Tuesday night through mid week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 94 75 91 / 0 10 10 10 Pensacola 77 93 77 91 / 0 20 10 0 Destin 77 92 77 91 / 0 20 10 0 Evergreen 72 97 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 72 98 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 72 97 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 72 94 73 90 / 0 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.