textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 553 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Hurricane/Storm Surge Warning in effect for the coast. Hurricane/Tropical Storm hazard headlines inland.

- Hurricane Isaias continues to strengthen and is forecast to make landfall along the local coastline this evening.

- Significant impacts are expected from Hurricane Isaias, including high winds, flash flooding, storm surge, tornadoes, dangerous surf, and life-threatening rip currents.

..Extended Period

A few lingering bands of light rain across our far eastern and northern zones are expected Saturday afternoon as Isaias continues to lift northward. Surface high pressure will build across the Gulf, and the Lower Mississippi River and Southeastern U.S. regions in the wake of Isaias Saturday night and persist into the middle of next week. A surface ridge will follow along the eastern seaboard into the Deep South through late next week. An upper high pressure system will also follow Isaias and continue through late next week. As a result, no rain is expected Saturday night through the remainder of the forecast.

Both high and low temperatures will increase through next week. High temperatures on Sunday will mainly be in the middle 80s, or about 3 to 7 degrees above normal. High temperatures through the remainder of the forecast should mostly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, or about 7 to 12 degrees above normal. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and middle 60s to lower 70s along the coast. These lows are about 3 to 7 degrees above normal. By Thursday night, lows should be in the lower to middle 60s inland and lower to middle 70s along the coast. These lows are about 9 to 14 degrees above normal. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

As Isaias approaches the northern Gulf coast today and moves inland this evening, conditions will deteriorate. Very strong low level winds and wind shear, combined with heavy rains and IFR to low end MVFR CIGs/VISBYs will impact operations. The impacts will initially along the coast this afternoon and spread inland into the evening and overnight hours. /16

MARINE

Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hurricane Isaias approaches the area from the south today. Widespread rain bands with hurricane force winds and seas of 20-30 feet, locally 30-40 feet, will spread north through the day prior to landfall late this evening. JGC/98

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

For the Rivers, bands of heavy rains will move inland this afternoon as Isaias approaches the northern Gulf coast and moves inland. A decent northerly pace with this storm will help to limit rainfall totals overall, especially along and west of the Tombigbee River. Still, local flash flooding is possible, especially in poor drainage areas. Also, smaller, flashier rivers and creeks south of I-65 can see rapid filling then flooding, with flood warnings issued for flashier rivers in our coastal counties from the Mobile River east. Any shift in the track will shift the greatest area of concern. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for AL and FL areas of the forecast area. Will need to monitor for any shifting of the track of Isaias, especially westward. Also, with the shifting winds coming with Isaias, will need to monitor area near coastal rivers for added storm surge addition to river flooding /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 63 77 61 / 90 90 10 0 Pensacola 79 69 79 67 / 100 90 10 0 Destin 82 72 81 70 / 100 90 20 10 Evergreen 77 60 79 58 / 100 100 20 0 Waynesboro 79 59 73 57 / 70 100 40 0 Camden 77 58 76 58 / 90 100 40 0 Crestview 76 66 79 61 / 100 100 20 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Tropical Storm Watch for ALZ051.

Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ052>055-057-058.

Hurricane Warning for ALZ056-059-060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

Storm Surge Warning for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Warning until midnight CDT Saturday night for ALZ265- 266.

FL...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

Hurricane Warning for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

Storm Surge Warning for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Warning until midnight CDT Saturday night for FLZ202- 204-206.

MS...Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ067-075-078.

Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ076-079.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.