textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Predominately IFR conditions are expected over the area through the period. A few patches of light rain are possible this morning, then isolated to scattered showers develop mainly over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama overnight. An easterly flow near 10 knots today becomes southeasterly tonight. /29

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 420 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

The bulk of the rain has exited the local area this morning with isolated showers lingering north of the Highway 84 corridor in south- central Alabama. Isolated showers will be possible throughout the day across the coastal counties while the majority of the area stays dry and cloudy. In the wake of a subtle shortwave trough sliding through the region this morning, we may see a few peaks of sunshine here and there across southeast Mississippi later today as a sliver of drier air works its way into the area.

Today is very much a transition day as the region reloads ahead of the second shortwave trough ejecting out of the Plains. Winds aloft quickly turn southwesterly again by this evening as the pattern aloft begins to amplify. This shortwave will stay northwest of the local area, but should still lead to increasing rain chances tonight (after midnight) for interior portions of southeast Mississippi and parts of southwest Alabama. Yet another shortwave (in this seemingly never-ending parade of subtle shortwaves) pivots across the ArkLaTex region through the day on Friday, but also remains generally northwest of the area. The glancing blow from this system on Friday will provide some shear across parts of southeast Mississippi and south Alabama (especially north of the Highway 84 corridor) through the morning hours on Friday with instability increasing through the afternoon hours. Given the timing of the shear and instability, the severe threat is very conditional on Friday afternoon - if the shear lingers deeper into the afternoon hours (longer than currently modeled), the instability will likely be sufficient for strong to potentially severe storms. Can't rule out some lingering thunderstorms by Friday night, but it'll be mostly rain by the late evening hours.

Starting to see some hints for sea fog in the guidance beginning Friday night across the Mississippi Sound, Mobile Bay, Perdido Bay, and the adjacent nearshore Gulf waters. Patchy, light fog will be possible across those areas tonight, but the probabilistic fog guidance really begins to light up as we roll into the Friday night timeframe.

Beach Note: The risk for rip currents has increased to a HIGH today through Sunday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches as onshore flow increases. The surf builds to 3-5 feet through that timeframe. 07/mb

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 420 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

An upper trof over the southern/central Plains merges with a northern stream system to form a large upper trof which progresses into the eastern states through Sunday. An associated surface low over the southern Plains lifts off into the northeast states and is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area mainly during the day on Sunday. Consistency among guidance has improved on the overall pattern during this time period, although there are still questions about just how strong shortwave energy in the base of the upper trof will be while progressing across the region. Following from this is some uncertainty with the strength and timing of the deep layer forcing anticipated to affect the forecast area mainly from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night ahead of the frontal passage. MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg develop on Saturday (highest over western portions) then diminish to around 500 J/kg Saturday night and will coincide with an 850 jet of 25 to as high as 40 knots, with the higher shear values located over the northwestern portion of the area. After examining model soundings and considering the distribution of the best shear/instability, this environment looks supportive for strong to possibly severe storm development mainly over the westernmost portion where the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe storms. A Marginal Risk is in effect for the remainder of the area. For rain chances, will have mainly likely pops for the entire area on Saturday and likely to categorical pops Saturday night, then dry conditions develop areawide Sunday. Another upper trof evolves over the Plains on Monday then progresses across the interior eastern states on Tuesday, after which it appears that another upper trof may evolve over the central states on Wednesday. A surface low is anticipated to move from the Plains on Monday towards the northeast states and bring another cold front through the area on Tuesday. There is uncertainty with the strength of this next system, and for now have gone with chance pops returning to much of the area Monday night with slight chance to chance pops for Tuesday and dry conditions returning Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. A high risk of rip currents is expected from Saturday into Sunday, with a moderate risk for Sunday night and Monday, then a low risk follows for Monday night. /29

MARINE... Issued at 420 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong easterly winds persist through tonight with building seas. Ongoing Small Craft conditions will dwindle as we roll through the morning hours, but we do expect another brief window of Small Craft conditions again tonight well offshore. Winds turn southeasterly by Friday and remain moderate into at least the early part of the weekend. There is an increasing potential for sea fog late Friday night into early Saturday across the Mississippi Sound, Mobile Bay, Perdido Bay, and the adjacent nearshore waters. A cold front slides through the region late in the weekend and winds turn offshore. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 67 59 73 62 73 60 71 48 / 10 50 50 60 70 80 10 0 Pensacola 66 59 71 65 72 63 72 52 / 10 10 40 60 70 90 30 0 Destin 67 59 72 65 74 65 74 54 / 20 10 30 50 60 90 50 10 Evergreen 64 50 70 60 74 59 72 46 / 20 0 40 60 70 90 30 0 Waynesboro 64 55 72 61 72 56 69 45 / 20 30 60 70 70 70 10 0 Camden 61 50 69 60 70 58 69 45 / 20 10 50 70 70 90 20 0 Crestview 66 52 73 60 75 60 76 47 / 10 0 30 50 60 90 40 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ655-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM CST Friday for GMZ670-675.