textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- Patchy fog is possible late tonight and Monday night. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the northwestern portion of the forecast area.

- Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through early next week with increasingly humid conditions. Heat indices will climb into low to mid 90s by Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A large upper trof develops over the western CONUS through tonight, then takes on a positive tilt through Tuesday to extend from the northern Plains to the southwestern states. The pattern evolves to a meridionally oriented upper trof over the Plains by Thursday, then much of the upper trof (along with a quickly following system) ejects off across the northeast states over the weekend. A narrow upper ridge meanwhile builds across the extreme southeast states through Tuesday then gradually weakens Wednesday into Thursday and dissipates by Friday as the upper trof begins to progress across the northeast states along with a series of shortwaves working into the area. A southerly deep layer flow over the forecast area will lead to improving moisture below 800 mb on Monday while dry mid level air persists. Anticipate that isolated to possibly scattered convection will develop on Monday in response to a few modest shortwaves moving across the area and aided by the sea breeze. The dry mid level air will aid in downdraft production, though severe storm development is not anticipated at this time.

Subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge look to inhibit convective development on Tuesday, although a few showers/storms will be possible. As the upper ridge slowly weakens Wednesday and Thursday (eventually dissipating by Friday), a series of shortwaves become more active over the area. Will have slight chance/chance pops over much of the area on Wednesday gradually trending to chance to likely pops by Saturday. A low risk of rip currents tonight will be followed by a moderate risk from Monday through Thursday. Patchy fog will be possible tonight and Monday night, mainly over interior areas. Guidance indicates that dense fog may be possible east of I-65 Monday night which will be monitored. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon for most of the area. Late tonight into Monday morning, there is medium confidence in areas of IFR or lower ceilings across the area. Any low ceilings should lift to MVFR or greater my mid to late morning. Generally southeast winds around 10 knots will continue through the afternoon before weakening tonight and resuming after sunrise, potentially gusting to near 20 knots by late Monday morning. 98/07

MARINE

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through Thursday. Seas will build slightly by Monday and Tuesday then diminish Wednesday into Thursday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 69 86 70 87 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 72 85 72 86 / 0 10 0 0 Destin 72 83 72 84 / 0 10 0 0 Evergreen 64 91 66 90 / 0 30 0 10 Waynesboro 65 88 69 88 / 0 30 0 10 Camden 64 90 67 90 / 0 30 0 10 Crestview 65 91 66 91 / 0 20 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.