textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 648 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 - Hot conditions continue today with heat index values of 108-112 degrees possible.

- Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon through the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend for all area beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 731 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Have updated to include small pops this morning over interior areas. Made other small adjustments. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Upper-level troughing deepening across the eastern and northern CONUS will begin to break down the upper ridge over the southern CONUS today into Friday. This means today will likely be the last day of hot temperatures pushing heat index values past advisory criteria, with peak values around 108-112 expected across most of the area. A plume of deeper moisture with PWAT values around 2.1-2.2 inches will be oriented NW-SE across the area today with a weak northwest flow aloft associated with troughing to the east. Afternoon heating and subtle shortwaves in the flow should promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon. Highest coverage is expected generally along and north of the I-10 corridor, where PoPs range from 60-80%. A few storms may become strong to severe with the potential for locally damaging wind gusts, torrential downpours, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Attention the turns to a positively tilted upper trough digging southeast from the Great Lakes through the weekend, sending a cold front toward the central Gulf Coast by late weekend. Ahead of this system, deep tropical moisture will continue to increase, with REFS guidance depicting PWATs exceeding 2.4 inches by Friday afternoon, hovering near the 99th percentile for late July climatology. This moisture-rich environment should support rounds of numerous to widespread showers and storms Friday and Saturday for much of the area. Slow moving, training, or backbuilding cells in this environment may lead to a localized flash flood threat. Rain chances are a bit more uncertain for Sunday, hinging on the eventual position of the approaching cool front. Current guidance suggests the boundary may slow or stall over the forecast area, keeping the highest rain chances confined to the southeastern half of the CWA with drier air filtering in from the northwest. Increasingly widespread cloud cover and rainfall each day should keep daytime temperatures near or even below normal, with highs in the low 90s Friday, decreasing to upper 80s for most spots by Sunday.

By early next week, the front is projected to wash out as the remnant upper trough or cutoff low gradually diminishes. This should transition the region back to a more typical summertime regime, with scattered showers and storms each afternoon and temperatures rebounding to near seasonal values, generally in the low to mid 90s.

A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues today along northwest Florida beaches with a Low Risk along the Alabama beaches, becoming a Moderate risk for all area beaches on Friday. A High Risk of rip currents is expected to develop Saturday for the Florida beaches and expand to all area beaches by Sunday. JGC/98

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 731 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop today and affect the TAF sites mainly from mid afternoon into the early evening hours. MVFR conditions will accompany the convection with otherwise VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds 5-10 knots become southwesterly near the coast in the afternoon. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Light to moderate westerly flow prevails across the marine area through the upcoming weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. Locally higher winds and waves can be expected in or near any thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 95 75 92 75 / 70 50 80 50 Pensacola 95 79 91 77 / 60 50 80 70 Destin 90 80 90 78 / 60 40 80 70 Evergreen 94 73 92 72 / 70 40 70 50 Waynesboro 95 74 93 74 / 70 40 80 40 Camden 94 74 91 73 / 50 40 60 50 Crestview 96 75 93 74 / 80 50 80 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-059-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.