textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 623 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 - Patchy dense fog will likely impact the area over the next several nights. Dense marine fog will become an increasing concern by midweek.

- Well above normal temperatures return for this upcoming week.

- Next significant chance of rain will come Friday into Saturday ahead of the next cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

A very mild week is in store across the region as upper level flow transitions to semi-zonal for early to mid week and upper level ridging builds over the southeast late in the week. Our main concerns through midweek will be the potential for dense fog each night. Latest HREF ensemble guidance indicates about a 20-40% chance of dense fog across inland southwest and south central Alabama tonight with probabilities increasing to 30-50% over parts of the area for Monday night. As a light southerly flow advects dewpoints into the 60s by Wednesday, our dense fog probabilities will likely increase further as we go through the week.

Our next significant chance of rain returns to the forecast sometime in the Friday-Saturday timeframe. An upper level trough will amplify over the central states by Friday and progress into the eastern part of the country sometime over the weekend. The main question is how fast this occurs as the guidance differs, mainly due to questions on how strong a southeast upper level ridge becomes. For now, will keep rain chances in the 40-50% range Friday and Saturday, but rain is expected to become likely in part of this time window when the attendant cold front sweeps through. It's too early to know if there will be a severe potential with this system, but it is something we will watch as the week progresses. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR conditions are in place across much of the local area at issuance time, with the only exception being a small area of MVFR ceilings over coastal southwest Alabama. These lower ceilings are expected to spread northward throughout the evening and overnight areas, with some interior locations dropping to IFR or LIFR. Additionally, some patchy fog may also try to develop across the area tonight. Best chances for localized reductions in visibilities are over interior south central Alabama. Any fog that does manage to develop should dissipate a little after sunrise. Ceilings should slowly start to improve by late morning, becoming upper-end MVFR to low-end VFR by the afternoon. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1218 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Offshore flow will diminish and quickly become onshore by Monday as high pressure over the Ohio Valley moves into the western Atlantic. Generally light onshore flow will persist through the middle of the week, but will gradually increase by the end of the week ahead of the next approaching cold front.

Marine fog development will likely become an issue by midweek, particularly in Mobile Bay, as dewpoints in the low to mid 60s overspread bay and sound water temperatures in the upper 50s. 34/JFB

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 49 69 54 75 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 53 68 58 72 / 0 0 10 10 Destin 54 65 58 70 / 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 45 68 51 75 / 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 44 68 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 44 67 50 74 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 46 69 52 74 / 0 0 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.