textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 244 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. Hazards will include intense rain rates leading to localized flooding and brief gusty winds. For marine areas, waterspouts and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible this weekend.

- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in place for local area beaches through Monday.

- Heat index values of 95-100 trend higher by the middle of next week, potentially reaching 103-110.

UPDATE

Issued at 651 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The forecast remains on track and no updates are needed. SS/97

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The current radar loop shows a circulation located roughly 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola associated with a weak surface low. The surface low is anticipated to drift slowly westward through early next week, potentially moving into the northwestern Gulf. The National Hurricane Center has a 0% chance of tropical development for this feature through early Monday morning, with a 10% chance of development through next Saturday. While the chance of tropical development is low, this system is anticipated to bring high rain chances mainly to portions of the coastal counties from later tonight through Sunday morning along with scattered convective development further inland during the day. As noted by the previous shift, will need to monitor for the potential for locally heavy rain and possibly flooding issues mainly over the coastal counties mainly from late tonight through Sunday morning, along with waterspout development over the marine area.

A weak upper trof currently extends across the Carolinas into the northeastern Gulf with an upper ridge spanning much of the remainder of the southern states. The upper ridge builds into the eastern CONUS through Tuesday while the weak upper trof becomes less defined though some vestiges will linger generally over the northeastern Gulf and adjacent coastal areas. As the weak surface low moves slowly off to the west, a surface ridge builds across the southeastern states and promotes a predominately easterly to southeasterly surface flow. For Sunday night into Monday, am expecting a repeat of convection developing near the coast during the overnight and into the morning hours, though convective coverage and potential QPF amounts look lower when compared to tonight into Sunday morning. Convective development Monday afternoon looks to be favored mostly across the southern half of the forecast area where the best low level convergence sets up likely due to a combination of the departing weak surface low and the sea breeze.

Have gone with mainly chance to likely pops for Wednesday, then chance pops follow for Thursday and Friday. Highs on Sunday range from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s further inland then trend to the lower to mid 90s for next week. Heat index values will typically be near 100 on Sunday then gradually trend to 102-107 for Wednesday through Friday, with higher values of 103-110 possible. A moderate risk of rip currents is in effect through Sunday, then a low risk follows for Monday through Wednesday. /29

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Ceilings will remain VFR through the period except within any showers and thunderstorms. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms begin sometime during the overnight into the early morning hours and chances will spread inland during the afternoon hours. The highest coverage is expected along the coast. These showers and storms are accompanied by stronger wind gusts and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within the strongest storms. Winds will remain generally easterly through tomorrow morning and slowly shift southerly to southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon into the evening. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A weak low pressure system located about 125 miles south of Pensacola will slowly drift westward away from the area over the next few days. This system will bring the potential for waterspouts mainly through Sunday. Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds are expected to prevail through Wednesday. Seas will typically be around 2 feet through Monday then diminish to 1-2 feet. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 90 73 92 / 30 70 20 60 Pensacola 76 89 76 90 / 50 60 30 60 Destin 76 88 77 89 / 30 60 30 60 Evergreen 69 93 70 95 / 10 30 10 30 Waynesboro 72 94 72 96 / 10 30 10 20 Camden 71 93 72 94 / 10 20 10 10 Crestview 70 92 71 93 / 10 50 20 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.