textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 - The heat will continue to build this weekend and into early and middle parts of the upcoming week with some locations nearing or breaking daily record highs. Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be necessary for portions of the area.

- Daily, mainly afternoon and evening scattered t-storm chances increases middle to later parts of the upcoming week, but will still remain hot.

UPDATE

Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Forecast remains on track with no changes necessary this morning. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Starting things off with tonight - looking rather nice and calm across the area. Not seeing as strong of an indication for patchy fog this morning like we saw yesterday morning looking at the REFS fog probs, but a few patchy areas where soils are still moist from recent days rain might be possible again. Overall, little impact but will continue to monitor.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track today with no major adjustments needed. Still seeing the same corridor of enhanced PW to the north trying to nudge south. This, coupled with heights breaking down some as the ridge retrogrades west will introduce a small uptick in isolated shower/storm coverage mainly for inland areas this afternoon. Added in a bit more uniform 15% min limitation to PoPs in this area where REFS/HRRR cluster is greatest in support.

Sunday through mid-week, want to spend a bit more time talking temperatures as this is becoming a key message for potential upcoming impacts for the area. We heat up, simply said, with NBM probs of reaching at or above 100F taps upwards of 80-90% for portions of the area, especially Mon-Wed. Main key player here is an anomalously strong ridge takes shape over the four-corners region, dominating a large portion of the US. Took a minute to observe soundings in this type of anomalous dynamic setup, which reveals a few key items of discussion. First of all, confidence for near to surpassing record highs for some climate sites continues to grow, with many areas possibly surpassing 100, especially western areas. Additionally, it's common in this kind of extreme heat to see a very deep, well-mixed daily afternoon PBL. Taking a look at some long-range guidance ML LCL numbers, comparing to nearby KLIX Sounding Climatology reveals an average (and using this loosely as these are 00Z soundings) around 75th-90th percentile according to daily max, or roughly 1400-1800m+ each day. What does this mean? The potential for stronger mixing than blended guidance currently presents, and lower afternoon dewpoints resulting in lower forecast max heat indices. Did apply a small edit of more meteorologically realistic drop in Tds from 18-23Z Sun-Tue to at least get on board with this idea for now. But want to emphasize, temperatures, themselves will be impactful for those outdoors, and will continue to strongly message heat precautions for the next few days. Will narrow down heat headlines as we near closer.

Otherwise, as previously mentioned, our proximity on the eastern edge of the ridge will continue to promote northerly upper-level flow through next week, with several PVA/energy impulses riding south from the upper/mid MS valley region/Ohio Valley into the SE. Hard to narrow down specifics, but this type of flow regime typically supports daily clusters/MCS's to our north and could graze or near closer to our area primarily middle to later parts of the week. Whether it comes in the form of just an enhancement of scattered showers primarily each afternoon/evening OR an actual complex makes it our way, that remains to be seen and will be better, more confidently identified in short-term CAM windows. Main message for now is shower/storm chances slowly uptick mid to late week, perhaps even into later next weekend. KLG

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Winds variable in direction 10 knots or less overnight shifting to onshore during the afternoon. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Nearby high pressure will continue to promote mainly light winds and calm waves/seas today. Winds will become more established Sunday through mid-week out of the west, averaging around 10-15 knots at times but otherwise waves will remain calm/light through the forecast period. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 97 75 96 77 / 10 0 20 10 Pensacola 95 78 96 79 / 10 0 30 10 Destin 93 80 91 81 / 10 0 20 10 Evergreen 95 74 93 75 / 10 0 30 10 Waynesboro 96 75 95 76 / 10 10 30 10 Camden 92 75 91 75 / 10 20 40 20 Crestview 97 75 96 76 / 20 10 20 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.