textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Some strong storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Heat Risk Concerns: Heat indices of around 100 expected Tuesday over the southern portion of the area.

- HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through at least Friday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An outflow boundary is currently the process of moving well offshore, with dry conditions expected to develop during the rest of the night. Surface winds briefly become light and variable overnight before turning northerly by Tuesday morning as a weak cold front moves through. The frontal boundary returns to the immediate coast Tuesday afternoon, then a back-door cold front pushes through from the east Tuesday night in response to a large surface high building over the eastern states. A positively tilted upper trof over the eastern states and an upper ridge over the central states will maintain a northwesterly flow aloft over the region on Tuesday, and another MCS may develop upstream and move into the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg are expected by Tuesday afternoon while shear values look to be low with 0-6 km bulk shear values remaining mostly 20 knots or less. DCAPE values currently look to be less than 500 J/kg, so with this environment convection should remain below severe limits. That said, will mention some strong storms are possible for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours due to the potential MCS.

Have gone with chance to likely pops for Tuesday. Isolated to scattered convection is possible over the southern portion of the area on Wednesday in the wake of the back-door front with otherwise dry conditions as an upper ridge builds into the region. Dry conditions are expected Thursday, then rain chances trend to slight chance to chance pops by Saturday as a return flow is established and the upper ridge weakens and shifts off to the east a bit. Mainly chance pops are expected for Sunday. Highs on Tuesday range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values of around 100 over the southern portion of the area. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler and around 80 then gradually trend to the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s near the coast then Wednesday night will be cooler with lows ranging from the upper 50s well inland to the mid/upper 60s at the immediate coast. Overnight lows gradually trend warmer to the lower to mid 70s by Sunday night. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday for the western Florida panhandle with a low risk for the Alabama beaches. A High Risk of rip currents is then expected for all beaches Wednesday through Friday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period in the wake of the storms that have now pushed into the Gulf. Another round of storms is possible by late this afternoon and into the evening hours. MVFR/IFR conditions along with gusty, erratic winds are possible near storms. Winds gradually turn northerly through the early morning hours then turn southerly along the coast late this afternoon. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists today. Winds shift to northerly and then easterly Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, strengthening to moderate to occasionally strong flow through the end of the week. Seas increase to 5 to 7 feet by mid week. Southeasterly flow develops Friday through much of the weekend. Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 69 81 64 / 50 60 20 0 Pensacola 91 70 81 67 / 40 60 10 0 Destin 89 70 82 68 / 40 60 10 0 Evergreen 92 65 81 58 / 50 40 0 0 Waynesboro 91 67 80 60 / 50 30 0 0 Camden 89 64 80 59 / 30 30 0 0 Crestview 93 65 81 60 / 50 60 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.