textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Patchy, locally dense fog can't be ruled out again late tonight into early Monday morning.

- A strong storm or two can't be ruled Monday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Locally heavy rainfall may also be possible along the immediate coastline.

- Dry weather and above normal high temperatures return to the forecast mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

One last shot of heavy rain and strong storms will be possible on Monday before a pattern switch brings our first real taste of summer by the weekend. Our final system arrives today as a shortwave trough ejects across the deep south. Rather stout upper diffluence will quickly move across the area during the late afternoon and evening hour and storms will likely form along a boundary draped from west to east across the area. Looking at forecast soundings and there is certainly the potential for a few stronger storms with hail and possibly a damaging wind gust or two as the primary threats. Low level shear is rather paltry, but modest deep layer shear around 40 knots could support some organized clusters and potentially a transient supercell or two as storms begin during the afternoon. The severe threat should not last long as storms cluster and impinge upon each other. Deep moist profiles generally tend to not be supportive of large hail; however, weak storm relative inflows, decent instability within the hail growth zone could support an instance or two of severe hail (1 inch or greater) in any transient supercellular structures that do develop. Damaging winds could also be possible if any organized clusters that do develop and are able to mix down stronger mid-level winds. On-top of the low end potential for some strong to severe storms, heavy rainfall will be possible. PWATS will be in the 1.8 to 2 inch range and with plenty of instability, some heavier rainfall rates could be possible leading to localized flooding concerns. The greatest concern will likely be along the immediate coastline where ensemble means are in the 2 to 4 inch range with some locally higher pockets. IF these higher pockets occur over poor drainage urban areas along the coast then some localized flooding may occur. Luckily even with all the rain we have had we are still in a rather significant drought which is likely keeping us from more significant flooding concerns.

By Monday night the upper shortwave will quickly move east ushering in a significantly drier pattern by midweek. Upper ridging will strengthen over the central US leading to dry northwesterly flow to develop through the remainder of the week. This upper ridge will flatten out and shift eastward with time leading to a gradual warmup through the weekend as highs top out in the 90s by Saturday and Sunday. Rain will be hard to come by for the foreseeable future and our first real taste of the upcoming summer will be upon us by early next week. BB-8

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at issuance time. Over the next couple hours, patchy fog/low stratus may start to develop over our southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama counties, possibly bringing brief reductions to IFR or LIFR. Any fog/stratus that does manage to develop will dissipate a little after sunrise and VFR conditions should return for the late morning/early afternoon hours. Rain chances are expected to increase by the late afternoon and into the evening hours as a cold front pushes through the area. These showers and storms likely bring visibility reductions to MVFR, or possibly IFR in some of the heavier activity. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A light onshore flow persists through today before winds turn westerly then northerly late this afternoon and evening behind a cold front. Winds briefly increase Monday night before a light easterly to northeasterly flow develops on Tuesday. Winds become variable, primarily offshore flow, by mid-week before shifting back to onshore flow Friday. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 65 84 64 / 20 10 70 30 Pensacola 79 68 82 67 / 20 0 50 40 Destin 78 69 81 68 / 20 0 30 30 Evergreen 83 62 84 60 / 20 10 50 20 Waynesboro 82 64 80 59 / 20 20 50 10 Camden 81 62 80 59 / 10 10 50 20 Crestview 84 63 86 63 / 20 10 60 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.