textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Dense fog will result in hazardous travel through late morning Christmas Eve. Dense marine fog will likely persist through the entire day. Additional dense fog development is anticipated each evening through mid to late morning every day into next weekend.

- Well above average temperatures are expected all week, including Christmas Day. A cold front brings an end to this warmth Sunday night.

- A moderate risk of rip currents will be in place through Wednesday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Widespread dense fog has overspread much of the forecast area and will remain in place through late morning with widespread visibilities less than one quarter of a mile. This will result in hazardous travel through late Christmas Eve morning before briefly mixing out for the afternoon hours. Over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound, dense marine fog (less than one mile) will likely persist through the day so hazardous boating conditions will continue and may not lift for several days as middle to upper 60s dewpoints advect over the cooler waters in the middle 50s. Dewpoint-water temperature spreads greater than 10 degrees usually support dense sea fog less than one quarter of a mile. Therefore the marine dense fog advisory will continue through the day tomorrow and will likely be extended for several more days as the pattern remains stagnant.

Dense fog will likely again develop over land areas during the evening hours of Christmas Eve and result in visibilities again dropping to one quarter of a mile or less. This again will result in very hazardous driving conditions and may disrupt evening holiday celebrations. These conditions will likely persist through late morning Christmas Day before mixing out around midday. After the fog dissipates, expect an unseasonably warm and dry Christmas Day with high temperature reaching again into the middle to upper 70s along with humid conditions. High temperatures will remain well above average as a strong upper ridge roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations above mean values will extend across the Deep South. This will keep high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and lows ranging from the middle 50s in the interior to lower 60s along the immediate coast through the rest of the holiday week and into next weekend.

The warm and dry afternoon weather conditions will likely encourage many to visit our local beaches over the next few days. If you are planning to visit the beach on Christmas Eve, remember that there will continue to be a moderate risk of rip currents as significant wave heights remain between 2 to 3 feet with swell periods still averaging around 6 seconds. This should keep the rip current risk elevate through Christmas Eve. The beaches will be great to visit, just use caution if planning to enter the surf. The rip current risk will drop to a low Christmas Eve night and remain low through next weekend providing great beach conditions both on the beach and in the surf from Christmas Day through Sunday.

Latest ensemble guidance suggests a major pattern change by early next week with a unseasonably strong upper level trough replacing the strong ridge east of the Mississippi River. This will allow a strong arctic cold front to bring an end to the warm weather as it sweeps through the region Sunday night. Limited moisture ahead of the front will keep any shower activity with the front scattered at best. Dry and much colder temperatures will be likely early next week with high temperatures dropping back into the middle 40s to lower 50s. Low temperatures will drop well into the 20s in most locations with below freezing temperatures all the way to the beaches expected. Dry and below average temperatures should remain in place through New Years Eve before gradually modifying towards the end of next week. /JLH

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

VLIFR to LIFR visbys and cigs will persist into the morning before slowly lifting to IFR then VFR by noon across the area. Some localized patches of IFR to MVFR visbys could be possible along the immediate coastline into the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable. VLIFR to LIFR visbys and cigs will return shortly after sunset and spread areawide by midnight tomorrow and persist into the morning hours. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Light and variable winds can be expected through Christmas Day. Light southwesterly flow develops Christmas night and continues through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Dense sea fog will develop each night through the remainder of the week across local area bays and sounds, as well as the nearshore Gulf waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 54 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 74 55 74 58 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 73 56 73 59 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 77 52 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 78 54 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 76 53 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 79 51 77 53 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>633- 650-655.

Dense Fog Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>632.