textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Temperatures will steadily warm through midweek.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible by the middle of this week, particularly for northwestern counties.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed. /13

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A cool, dry airmass will continue to filter into the local area as high pressure builds in to our north. For the rest of tonight, efficient radiational cooling is underway thanks to clear skies overhead, light winds, and the dry air in place. Lows are expected to drop into the mid to upper 40s, with low 50s along the coast. These lows are roughly 10-15 degrees cooler than average for early May. In fact, it is possible that this morning's low reaches/breaks the daily record low for our KMOB climate site (May 3rd record low: 47). NBM probabilities give a roughly 30-40% chance of reaching this record, but considering that guidance tends to have a warm bias in these efficient radiational cooling regimes, I would argue that overall chances are actually a bit higher. For this afternoon, a sunny, mild day is in store as the aforementioned high settles in. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures will gradually warm for the start of the week as the high shifts to our east and upper ridging begins to build in over the Gulf. Although low-level moisture slowly starts to advect back in due to the return of onshore flow, subsidence from the deep- layer ridging will likely keep us dry through at least Tuesday night. Highs by Tuesday should reach the low to mid 80s, and lows Tuesday night will generally be in the low to mid 60s.

Our next chance for showers and storms comes on Wednesday (particularly Wednesday night) as another cold front approaches and pushes through the area. Looking aloft, northern-stream troughing over the north-central US is expected to phase with southern-stream troughing pushing across the Desert Southwest. As they phase, a diffluent westerly to southwesterly flow pattern develops across portions of the Deep South and into the Tennessee River Valley on Wednesday, helping to spark shower/storm development. For our local area, rain chances will be a bit slower to increase due to subsidence/capping from the upper ridge over the Gulf. The ridge may start to retreat by Wednesday evening/night as an upper-level jet ejects northeastward and the base of the newly-formed longwave trough passes to our north, leading to gradual height falls for our area. This, along with the approach of the cold front, should allow for rain chances to increase through the evening and into the overnight hours as upstream storms slowly push southeastward.

We will have to keep a close eye on trends over the next couple days as storms Wednesday night could become strong to severe. Machine learning and CIPS analog guidance continues to highlight a broad area of severe probabilities across the Deep South, including over portions of our local area (highest probabilities at this time look to remain to our north). Looking at the overall environment, strong deep layer shear of around 50-60 knots will likely be present as the upper jet passes overhead. Additionally, warm air advection will likely help to bring in low 70 dew points into the area. Although at face value, this environment would seem rather conducive for strong to severe storm development, the overall setup is still rather questionable/conditional at this time. To start, the best diffluence appears to be displaced to our north, possibly resulting in more of a 'glancing blow' to our area. This diffluence will also quickly push off to the east Wednesday night as the upper jet ejects northeastward, possibly lifting away from the ongoing storms as they approach our local area. Additionally, even with subtle height falls, height anomalies from ensemble guidance still remain above average over much of our area, suggesting that the residual influence of the ridge may still be present. Looking at modeled soundings, a weak subsident layer in the mid-levels may help to keep us capped and lead to poor lapse rates, and with storms pushing through during the overnight hours, overall instability appears to remain rather low. Therefore, at this point, am thinking that storms should be weakening as they enter our northwestern counties during the late evening/overnight hours. Although storms could pose a damaging wind threat as they first enter the area, how far south they can maintain this strength is all dependent on a) how quick the storms move in, b) where the best forcing is located, and c) how strong the ridge is/are we still capped. SPC currently has a D5 slight risk in place for the northwestern half of our CWA. Once the front passes through on Thursday, cooler/drier air filters back in for late week.

A Low Risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday, becoming a moderate to high risk by midweek. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Strong offshore flow will diminish this morning. Onshore flow will return Monday afternoon with winds and seas again increasing ahead of the next storm system by the middle of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 51 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 77 56 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 76 59 77 63 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 77 47 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 76 48 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 74 48 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 78 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ670-675.