textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across coastal portions of the western Florida Panhandle if a warm front is able to shift onshore late tonight through early Tuesday morning.

- Strong flow may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters mainly from late tonight into Tuesday.

- A high rip current risk is in effect for the Northwest Florida Panhandle beaches today and for all coastal beaches of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle tonight into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A positively tilted upper trof extending from the 4 Corners region to the northern Plains takes on a meridional orientation before progressing across the eastern states late Monday night into Tuesday evening. An associated surface low is anticipated to develop over the northwest Gulf on Monday then move across the western Florida panhandle Tuesday night (between 03-09Z) before continuing well away from the area. The trajectory of the surface low indicated by the latest guidance tempers the potential for any meaningful instability to be able to lift into the western Florida panhandle. Will continue to monitor, but at this point the potential for strong storms looks low. Have gone with chance to likely pops for Monday, categorical pops for Monday night, then slight chance to chance pops for Tuesday morning. Dry conditions follow for Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday.

Another positively tilted upper trof meanwhile evolves from the northern Plains to the 4 Corners region on Wednesday. The upper trof splits with much of the upper trof ejecting off across the northeastern states Wednesday night into Thursday night. The remainder of the upper trof is joined by a Canadian system to form an upper trof extending from the central states into the Baja area by Thursday night. There's uncertainty with how quickly this upper trof advances eastward and also the potential for the upper trof to weaken substantially. It appears that another surface low looks to take a trajectory similar to what transpired earlier in the week and move across the forecast area roughly on Friday. There is a great deal of uncertainty with how this plays out and will continue to monitor at this point. Have gone with chance to likely pops for Thursday with likely to categorical pops for Friday. Mainly chance pops follow for Saturday, then Sunday looks to be mainly dry except for small pops near the coast.

Highs will be near seasonable values on Monday, and Friday through Sunday, and about 5-10 degrees below seasonable values for Tuesday through Friday. Overnight lows trend to well below seasonable values by Tuesday night to range from the mid/upper 20s well inland to the lower/mid 30s at the coast. Lows trend to a bit above seasonable values by Thursday night with near seasonable values expected for Saturday night. A moderate risk is expected today for the Alabama beaches with a high risk for the western Florida panhandle beaches. A high risk of rip currents follows for all beach areas for Monday night into Tuesday, then a moderate risk is expected Tuesday night. A low rip current risk continues for Wednesday and Thursday, then a moderate risk is expected for Friday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

IFR to LIFR ceilings will remain across the region today into tonight. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall is expected to overspread the area as we head into late afternoon and the evening hours, lingering through the overnight. A few thunderstorms are possible nearer the coast, with a couple strong to severe storms not out of the question across the Florida Panhandle overnight tonight. Winds will remain out of the east to northeast around 5 knots today into this evening, with 5 to 10 knots near the coast. Winds shift out of the southeast across the Florida Panhandle tonight as a warm front attempts to lift onshore. A surface low tracks near the coast tonight with a cold front progressing across the entire area through early Tuesday morning, turning winds out of the north in its wake at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly winds gradually become southeasterly by Monday evening, then switch to the northwest Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through. Will mention Small Craft Should Exercise Caution overnight into early Monday morning for the open Gulf waters, which may need to be extended for the 20-60 nm portion through Monday afternoon. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the open Gulf waters from 9 pm Monday evening into 3 pm Tuesday afternoon. Timing for the Small Craft Advisory may need to be refined on subsequent shifts depending on how quickly the flow increases/subsides. The offshore flow diminishes Tuesday night then becomes more easterly by Thursday. An onshore flow develops Thursday night then switches to the northwest on Friday as another cold front moves through. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 47 57 31 / 50 100 20 0 Pensacola 68 54 62 36 / 60 90 20 0 Destin 68 57 66 38 / 60 90 40 0 Evergreen 64 46 57 28 / 50 100 20 0 Waynesboro 57 38 49 26 / 50 100 20 0 Camden 59 39 51 26 / 50 100 20 0 Crestview 65 51 63 30 / 60 100 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.