textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters through Saturday morning.

- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches Friday night through Monday. A high rip current risk is expected for Monday night and Tuesday.

- Low relative humidity values on Friday along with the potential for breezy winds could result in an elevated fire danger and will be monitored.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Dry and cool conditions are expected through Friday night with near seasonable temperatures returning for Saturday. An upper trof progresses across the central states on Saturday then moves off across the interior eastern states Sunday into Sunday night. An associated surface low meanwhile lifts from the Plains to across the northeast states and brings a cold front through the forecast area on Sunday. Instability looks to remain sufficiently limited to preclude the potential for strong storms. Have gone with chance to likely pops for Sunday which taper to slight chance pops for Sunday night. Another upper trof advances across the central states on Monday and continues across the eastern states on Tuesday. A surface low is anticipated to develop over the northwest Gulf in response then lifts across the forecast area Monday night. Instability also looks to remain limited with this next system, but will need to continue to monitor. Have continued with chance pops for Monday which increase to categorical pops for Monday night. Pops taper off to dry conditions Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening with dry conditions following through Wednesday night. Slight chance to chance pops return for Thursday as a series of shortwaves move across the region.

Highs on Friday range from the lower 50s well inland to the mid/upper 50s near the coast, then highs on Saturday range from around 60 well inland to the mid 60s near the coast. Highs on Sunday range from around 60 well inland to the lower 70s at the coast, then progressively cooler highs follow through Wednesday by which time highs range from the mid 50s well inland to near 60 closer to the coast. Highs on Thursday will be a tad warmer. Lows Friday night range from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast, then lows Saturday night range from the mid 40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast. Lows Sunday night range from the mid/upper 30s well inland to around 50 at the coast with a bit warmer values for Monday night. Tuesday night will be cooler and range from around 30 well inland to the upper 30s at the coast, then lows Wednesday night range from the mid 30s well inland to the mid 40s at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Friday, then a moderate risk follows for Friday night through Monday. A high rip current risk is expected for Monday night into Tuesday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening. Northwesterly winds at 5-10 knots near the coast are expected overnight with light winds further inland, then a northerly flow around 10 knots follows for Friday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Moderate to strong northerly winds become easterly Friday night. A light to moderate southeasterly flow develops on Saturday then winds become northerly on Sunday as a cold front moves through. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended for the open Gulf waters until 15Z Saturday. Small craft should exercise caution for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound through Friday morning. An easterly flow develops on Monday then strengthens and switches to the northwest Monday night as another cold front moves through. /29

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Afternoon relative humidity values drop to around 25% on Friday for much of the area, potentially 20-25% over south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. While surface dewpoints begin to increase on Saturday, relative humidity values of 20-25% are anticipated mainly over interior southwest Alabama and south central Alabama. 20 ft wind speed values are expected to remain below 15 mph both days, and the Significant Fire Potential values will be low or less which will preclude the need for a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch. Out of caution, will continue to message the potential for an elevated fire danger for Friday as it was already in our Key Messages. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 36 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 40 57 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 41 59 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 30 56 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 31 54 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 29 52 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 32 57 34 64 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ670-675.