textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 747 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Rain chances increase throughout the week, especially over the western half of the forecast area.

- Localized patchy dense fog will be possible over the next few nights.

UPDATE

Issued at 757 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Area radars continue to detect isolated showers and thunderstorms across the far northern portion of our warning area. Most of this convection will continue to move northward out of our area, but additional showers and perhaps a weak storm or two should linger across southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama through most of the night shortwave disturbances pass over those areas. The afternoon forecast is still on track with the convection and temperature trends, so no updates are needed at this time. /22

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft is expected to continue through the period as an active subtropical jet sets up along and west of our local area. Several shortwaves, embedded within the subtropical jet, will quickly pass near/over the area over the next several days. With the shortwaves moving overhead, along with deep moisture in place (PWATs generally ranging around 1.6-2.0 inches) and strong destabilization occurring each day due to diurnal heating, shower and thunderstorm development is expected each day through the period. Highest rain chances look to occur during the late morning/afternoon hours each day, and best coverage looks to be over interior counties west of I-65 (due to the closer proximity to the subtropical jet). Due to limited shear, storms should be rather pulse-like in nature, and therefore, we are not anticipating any organized severe weather throughout the period. That being said, as we typically see with this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as frequent lightning. It should be noted that the slow-moving nature of these storms, as well as the deep moisture in place, may lead to storms being efficient rainfall producers. If a few storms manage to train over the same areas, cannot rule out some localized flooding concerns. Highs each day will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with a few localized spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Lows will be very mild and humid, with temperatures only dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s inland and the low to mid 70s closer to the coast. Cannot rule out the development of patchy fog each night, mainly over inland counties, due to saturated boundary-layer conditions and calm winds. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will be in place through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours, but there will be brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities in and around scattered showers and storms north of US Highway 84. Low clouds will develop around 08Z inland areas and spread in coverage late tonight into early Thursday morning with a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings expected. Scattered showers and storms will redevelop inland areas on Thursday, again leading to localized reductions in ceilings and visibilities. Southeasterly winds of around 5-10 knots will become more light and variable tonight. /22

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through this weekend. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. 98/96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 70 86 72 84 / 10 30 40 70 Pensacola 73 86 74 84 / 0 10 30 50 Destin 73 85 74 84 / 0 0 10 30 Evergreen 70 89 70 86 / 20 40 20 70 Waynesboro 69 87 70 83 / 40 60 50 80 Camden 69 87 69 83 / 40 50 20 80 Crestview 69 90 70 88 / 0 10 10 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.