textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 - Temperatures will continue to rise through the rest of the week and into early next week. Forecast heat indices in the 100 to 107 range this weekend and 105 to 111 next week for portions of the area.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday afternoon into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The stacked high pressure area over southern Louisiana and the north central Gulf will move very slowly westward over southeast Texas and the northwest Gulf by late Saturday night. This will make way for an upper low pressure area developing over south Florida early this morning to drift northwesterly over the northeast Gulf by Sunday. A weak surface low pressure area reflected at the surface is forecast to develop somewhere across the northeast Gulf over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) mentions the possibility of some gradual development as the low turns slowly northeasterly early next week with a low (20%) chance of formation.

This system will bring an increase in moisture into our area from the southeast with PWATs inching up from around 1.8" this morning to around 2" over the weekend. Little to no rain is expected today through Saturday morning, followed by mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms east of Interstate-65 by late Saturday afternoon through at least midnight, and again Sunday afternoon through at least midnight with the western-most extent possibly reaching the Tombigbee Valley. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast for Monday afternoon across the entire forecast area.

No severe weather is expected with this weekend convection, but occasional strong storms are possible as mixed layer instability values approach 2200 to 2800j/kg late Saturday afternoon, and from 2800 to 3800j/kg on Sunday (mainly along east of I-65).

Above normal temperatures will occur through early next week, with highs in the lower to middle 90s today and Saturday, warming into the middle and upper 90s through at least the middle of next week. The higher moisture levels combined with increased temperatures will lead to increasing heat stress. Heat Index values will climb into the 100 to 107 range this weekend and 105 to 111 or higher through at least the middle of next week. A Heat Advisory will likely be required with Excessive Heat products possible as well for parts of the area. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening as we only expect and increase to broken clouds from 15-18kt feet late tonight through Friday. Light westerly winds overnight shift northwesterly 5-10 knots this morning. /22

MARINE

Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 97 76 97 76 / 10 10 20 10 Pensacola 96 79 95 78 / 10 20 40 30 Destin 93 79 92 79 / 20 20 50 60 Evergreen 92 73 93 73 / 10 10 20 30 Waynesboro 95 74 96 74 / 0 10 10 0 Camden 91 74 91 75 / 10 10 20 10 Crestview 95 75 94 74 / 10 20 50 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.