textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area tonight into early next week. Lows in the 40's can be expected widespread across the area, to even mid to upper 30's for inland/northern areas where patchy frost will likely occur.

- Moderate to occasional strong northerly winds over the Gulf this weekend will create hazardous conditions for small craft.

UPDATE

Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The forecast remains on track this evening. JGC/98

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

As the center of a large 1025 MB surface high pressure system centered over Missouri migrates southward, we are expecting very chilly conditions tonight across the region as cold air advection ramps up after sunset. Low temperatures tonight across interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama will drop into the middle to upper 30s (around 6 to 9 degrees below normal). The combination of mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to the development of patchy frost, especially in non-protected and other frost-prone areas. Went ahead and issued a Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM Sunday across all of our northern zones, but our main concern is generally along and north of a line from Waynesboro MS to Monroeville AL to Luverne AL. Persons living in this area should take steps now to protect sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. We are expecting similar low temperatures and frost formation for Sunday night.

The center of the surface high pressure system will gradually weaken early next week, but a surface ridge will remain across the Deep South through midweek. Therefore, the dry weather conditions will persist through midweek, with high temperatures climbing back into the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. We are still monitoring a strong upper trough forecast to exit southeast Canada and dig southward across the entire eastern CONUS. At this time, we are not expected much, if any, significant rain associated with this system, but there could be enough moisture return for at least isolated showers mainly on Thursday. A strong surface cold front associated with this trough will push well south of the coast and potentially bring even colder low temperatures by the next weekend compared to this weekend. /22

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with generally northerly winds around 5-10 knots. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 304 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Light to occasional moderate northerly flow will persist through the reminder of the weekend as surface high pressure builds into the region with winds shifting northeasterly over the Gulf by Monday morning. Light offshore flow Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning will become light and variable through midweek as the high pressure moves over the Gulf waters. A light to moderate westerly flow on Thursday will shift to a moderate to strong northwesterly flow thursday night as the next cold front sweeps through the region. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 44 71 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 50 72 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 52 73 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 38 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 38 70 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 37 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 41 73 40 76 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM CST Sunday for ALZ051>058.

FL...None. MS...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM CST Sunday for MSZ067.

GM...None.