textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to possible flash flooding will occur over the next several days.

- HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through at least Thursday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Regional radar mosaic is detecting numerous to widespread showers with embedded isolated to scattered thunderstorms north of the I-10 corridor. Additional development is expected late this afternoon in early evening south of I-10 as convection develops over the Gulf and moves onshore. This precipitation will taper off by mid to late evening with our area remaining largely rain- free through the remainder of the night. A continuous stream of upper mini-shortwaves moving over the region in a deep southerly to southwesterly flow will result in a steady stream of moisture to fuel the ongoing wet weather pattern with additional shower and thunderstorm activity through the remainder of the week, especially during the daytime hours with decreasing stability from diurnal heating. The highest chance of precipitation for the remainder of the week through the upcoming weekend will occur north of I-10 where numerous to widespread showers with embedded isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected. Scattered to occasional numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected south of I-10. Widespread rainfall amounts for the remainder of the week through the upcoming weekend are expected to range from 1.5 to 2.0 inches inland, and from 1.0 to 1.5 inches near the coast. Localized amounts of 2 to 4 inches will likely occur through the period. We do not anticipate any organized severe weather, but some of the stronger storms will have the potential of producing gusty surface winds and frequent lightning. In addition, some of the slower moving storms will be capable of producing localized nuisance flooding.

Beach Forecast - Given the consistent onshore flow signal over the coming days, the risk for rip currents will be HIGH through at least Thursday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Offshore storms will only act to amplify the surf and rip currents each day. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MVFR conditions will prevail through most of the forecast with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible mainly north of the I-10 corridor. Storms should generally spread inland throughout the evening leading to localized IFR visbys with the heaviest storms. Rain should subside just prior to midnight with MVFR ceilings prevailing overnight. Winds will remain light out of the southeast. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist throughout the week. Seas will generally be 3 to 4 feet through midweek. Significant reductions in visibility due to periods of heavy rain and locally higher winds will occur near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 85 72 85 / 30 50 40 90 Pensacola 74 84 74 85 / 50 40 30 70 Destin 75 84 74 84 / 70 40 30 60 Evergreen 70 86 70 86 / 50 80 30 90 Waynesboro 70 86 70 84 / 20 80 30 90 Camden 69 84 69 84 / 30 70 20 90 Crestview 70 86 70 88 / 60 60 20 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...None.