textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1214 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Strong to severe storms are possible into mid afternoon. Frequent wind gusts in excess of 40mph are expected outside of storms with a Wind Advisory in effect into mid afternoon. A High Risk of rip currents remains in effect through tonight.

- Bitter cold temperatures are expected tonight and Monday night with overnight temperatures dipping into the teens to lower 20s. Wind chills values both nights could range from as low as the single digits well inland to the teens near the coast. Cold temperatures continue Tuesday night into Saturday night.

- Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from late tonight through early Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Now through Sunday...

Currently, as a strong upper shortwave moves over western portions of the forecast area, a surface low is moving northeast over the forecast area. A strong post surface low cold front is moving across the forecast area, with observations indicating quick 20F drops as it passes and a semi-organized line of strong showers and thunderstorms move across the forecast area. Instability is still not impressive on the analysis, with SBCapes of 600-1200J/kg indicated, but the front is indicating a tight pressure gradient and strong winds ahead of the front. The analysis is also advertising strong 850mb-250 differential divergence, and the latest KMOB VWP is advertising 60kts at 10k'. Even with the instability, strong dynamics are allowing the storms to become tall enough to grab the stronger winds. Also, brief tornadoes are also possible, with 0-500m helicities in the 200-300m^2/s^2 range. A TOR Watch is in effect for areas along and east of I-65 through 3 pm. Behind the front, widespread rain showers are showing on radar, with temperatures across this portion of the forecast area in the upper 30s to around 40 at noontime. A second cold surge from a second upper shortwave approaching the Lower Mississippi River is approaching the Natchez Trace, with temperatures <=32F there and west.

Going into tonight, this second cold surge and freezing temperatures are expected to begin crossing northwestern portions of the forecast area this evening and reaching southeastern portions of the forecast area before sunrise Monday. These temperatures, when combined with breezy post frontal winds, Wind Chills are expected to bottom out in the single digits over the northwestern quarter of the forecast area to upper teens over coastal areas. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for the forecast area beginning at 06z/midnight tonight and running to 18z/noontime Monday. Winds will ease Monday into Monday night, but with the very cold airmass over the forecast area, wind chills are again expected to bottom out in the upper single digits to mid teens, with physical temperatures bottoming out in the mid/upper teens north of Highway 84 to upper teens to low 20s south to the coast.

For the rest of the forecast, surfaced high pressure shifts slowly east to over the Mississippi River by Thursday, keeping the forecast area under dry northerly flow the rest of the week into the weekend. Temperatures moderate upwards into mid week, but remain well below seasonal norms for the rest of the forecast. Guidance is advertising an upper level shortwave trough passing in the coming weekend, bringing isentropic upglide rain to mainly the southern half of the forecast area in the coming weekend.

Strong onshore flow over the north-cenrtal Gulf will bring strong swell to area beaches through tonight before easing Monday. Offshore winds the rest of the week will keep swell low, and create a Low Risk of Rip currents the rest of the week. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A cold front currently just east of the I-65 corridor will quickly continue east and out of the area by mid afternoon. Showers and storms accompany the front, with light rain tapering off in the wake of the front. Gusty northwest winds at 10-20 knots follow in the wake of the front and persist through Monday morning. IFR/MVFR conditions are expected ahead and in the wake of the front, then VFR conditions develop from west to east late tonight into early Monday morning. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1214 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Strong onshore flow this afternoon will shift to offshore late this afternoon into tonight. A second surge of cold air will enhance the offshore flow, with upper end small craft conditions into Monday night. Winds ease into mid week, but remain offshore as surface high pressure slowly shifts east to over the Mississippi River. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 25 42 20 48 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 27 43 23 47 / 30 0 0 0 Destin 30 45 26 48 / 60 0 0 0 Evergreen 23 40 17 47 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 20 40 15 46 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 21 38 14 43 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 26 43 19 48 / 40 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for FLZ201>206.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for FLZ201>206.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.