textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- A few strong to severe storms, capable of producing gusty to damaging winds, are possible west of the Alabama River overnight and potentially into Saturday morning. - The threat for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe, will be in place during the afternoon hours this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A line of thunderstorms located along the Natchez Trace at 03am/08z continues to move southeast over Mississippi towards the forecast area along the northern edge over a band of good instability over Mississippi. Bowing segments and transient mesoes have been in evidence. Several observations have reported winds gusting to 35-40kts. Conditions continued to be monitored for any watch/warnings associated with this line. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

An interesting pattern has come to fruition, with a pair of MCS's affecting the forecast area overnight into Saturday morning. Convection associated with the first MCS has been weakening while progressing across interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. This convection has formed an outflow boundary extending from near New Augusta, MS to Greenville, AL, and this boundary is progressing slowly southward with the weakening convection. Convection with the second MCS is anticipated to manifest as a line of storms which advances into southeast Mississippi late tonight, with the outflow boundary helping to steer this convection across extreme southwestern Alabama and part of the western Florida panhandle through Saturday morning before continuing into the coastal waters. MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are anticipated to be in place as convection associated with the second MCS moves through with 0-6 km bulk shear values near 55 knots. 0-1 km helicity values look to be 50-100 m2/s2, so am anticipating that the main threat from these storms will be strong wind gusts, with a few storms possibly producing wind gusts to 60 mph. SPC currently has southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama (to the Alabama River) in a Marginal Risk of severe storms for the rest of tonight.

A surface low passing well off to the north is expected to bring a weak cold front into central Mississippi/Alabama Saturday afternoon. While a series of shortwaves move across the area with the frontal boundary in the proximity, it's not clear how much of a lingering effect the second MCS will have on the ability for convection to develop in the afternoon. Per coordination, have gone with likely pops for Saturday afternoon for most of the area for now. The weak frontal boundary is anticipated to drift to near the coast Saturday night then meanders over the coastal counties on Sunday before dissipating. Have gone with chance pops for Sunday with the weak boundary and a series of shortwaves continuing to move across the area. A surface low develops over the Plains meanwhile then lifts well off to the north through Tuesday and brings a cold front to near northern Mississippi/Alabama. Monday will be mostly dry due an upper ridge briefly building over the region, then slight chance to chance pops follow for Tuesday mainly over interior areas.

Another surface low tracks from the south central states to the northeast states and pushes the cold front through the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for Wednesday through Thursday, with chance pops following for Friday as the frontal boundary appears to return northward through the area as a warm front. As noted by the previous shift, will need to monitor for the potential for strong storm development from Tuesday onward based on CIPS analog guidance. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday through Wednesday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Showers and storms will mostly affect areas along and west of I-65 into the overnight hours, with additional showers and storms advancing across southeast Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and part of the western Florida panhandle late tonight into Saturday morning. Scattered to potentially numerous showers and storms may occur during Saturday afternoon as well. IFR to MVFR conditions along with gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms. Outside of the storms, light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5-10 knots on Saturday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through the weekend and into the middle of next week. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 65 85 66 / 80 20 40 20 Pensacola 80 67 83 67 / 70 30 30 20 Destin 78 68 81 68 / 50 40 30 20 Evergreen 84 61 85 61 / 60 40 30 20 Waynesboro 83 62 83 63 / 80 30 50 20 Camden 81 61 82 61 / 70 40 30 20 Crestview 84 62 88 61 / 60 40 30 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.