textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through Sunday, with localized spots potentially reaching 108-110.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue through Saturday, increasing to numerous to widespread by Sunday and into early next week. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized flooding, is possible.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches tonight through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A rather light and variable upper-level flow pattern will remain in place through Saturday as an upper ridge lingers over the northern Gulf. With plenty of moisture in place (PWATs around 1.8-2.0 inches), along with a highly unstable environment thanks to strong daytime heating, a typical summertime convective pattern will continue through Saturday. This will consist of isolated showers and storms developing during the morning hours over our marine zones and along the coast, scattered pulse-type storms developing during the afternoon hours along the sea breeze which will spread inland via outflow boundary collisions, and activity eventually dissipating during the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. As we typically see with this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices rising to around 102-107 degrees (up to 108-110 in a few localized spots). Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to around 80 degrees along the coast.

The pattern begins to change as we get to the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Looking aloft, a positively-tilted longwave trough is expected to push into the western Atlantic on Sunday. As it does so, a shortwave breaks off from this trough, forms into a cutoff low over the Tennessee River Valley, and slowly retrogrades westward through Tuesday. Additionally at the surface, as high pressure builds in over the Appalachians, a weak frontal boundary will push southward, likely stalling somewhere near or over our local area as we get into Monday. PWATs south of the boundary will likely surge to around 2.1-2.3 inches (climotologically-speaking, that's generally around the 90th-95th percentile for this time of year), and with plenty of forcing due to the cutoff low aloft and the frontal boundary at the surface, much higher rain chances are expected during the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Overall severe threat for this period looks to be rather low at this time, although I wouldn't be surprised to see a few strong to marginally severe storms develop on Sunday afternoon/evening as deep-layer shear increases to around 20 knots, favoring the potential for a few loosely-organized multicellular clusters, capable of producing strong winds.

The primary hazard during this active period will be heavy rainfall. As stated before, plenty of deep moisture will be in place across the local area, allowing for storms to be efficient rainfall- producers. Factoring in weak mid-level flow moving parallel to the stalling surface boundary, along with deep shear values dropping to 10 knots or less by Monday/Tuesday, storms will likely be slow- moving and could potentially train and impact the same areas. NBM 95th percentiles are already suggesting rainfall totals up to 3-5 inches along the coast. If training storms are able to set up across the area, then these values may become realized and a localized flash flood threat could materialize. We will monitor trends over the next couple days.

By Wednesday and into the remainder of the week, upper ridging attempts to build back over the local area, allowing for our typical summertime pattern of scattered afternoon storms to return once again. A Moderate Risk of rip currents will be in place starting tonight and continuing through the weekend. RCMOS probabilities suggest that Alabama beaches should drop to a Low Risk by Monday, while a Moderate Risk continues for our Florida beaches through Tuesday. /96

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions generally prevail outside of any showers and storms this afternoon. Expect brief periods of lower ceilings and visibility near thunderstorms along with gusty, erratic winds. Southerly winds generally continue through the afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southerly to southwesterly flow prevails through Sunday, becoming more westerly by early next week. Seas will build to 2 to 3 feet for the weekend into early next week. Expect higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 93 76 92 / 10 40 30 70 Pensacola 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 20 60 Destin 81 92 80 91 / 10 30 20 50 Evergreen 74 95 74 92 / 10 30 10 70 Waynesboro 75 96 75 93 / 10 20 10 70 Camden 74 93 74 91 / 10 10 20 70 Crestview 74 95 74 94 / 10 40 20 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.