textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Rain chances are expected to increase tonight and into Saturday morning, with a few strong to severe storms, capable of producing gusty to damaging winds, possible west of the Alabama River. - The threat for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe, will be in place during the afternoon hours this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft will strengthen over the next 12 hours or so as the subtropical jet becomes more active and settles overhead. The initial shortwave, currently located near the ArkLaTex, is helping to spark showers and storms across SE Arkansas/NW Mississippi. Over the next few hours, storms in this area are expected to organize into an MCS and quickly push southeastward. Strong destabilization due to afternoon heating and diffluence from the shortwave aloft will allow for this MCS to continue across Mississippi and possibly reach our northwestern counties by the mid to late evening hours (earliest arrival around 9 pm; latest arrival around midnight). By time it reaches our area, guidance suggests that the MCS should become more cold-pool dominant and start to weaken due to the loss of daytime heating and the initial shortwave outrunning the storms. That being said, if the MCS moves a bit quicker and maintains its strength a bit longer, then it is possible that this MCS could produce gusty winds of 40-60 mph over portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama (primarily west of the Tombigbee River). The MCS should dissipate by time it reaches the I-65 corridor. It should be noted that a few CAMs suggest that a secondary MCS could develop later during the overnight hours and travel along the remnant outflow boundary laid out by the first MCS. Although confidence in this secondary MCS is very low, if it were to develop, it could bring another potential for gusty winds for parts of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by, or a little before, daybreak.

By Saturday afternoon, a weakening cold front is expected to stall somewhere over central MS/AL. Several shortwaves, embedded within the subtropical jet, will also continue to pass overhead. These features, along with the sea breeze boundary and any remnant outflow boundaries from previous storms, should allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop during the afternoon hours on Saturday. Although we may start off the day rather stable due to the earlier storms, strong destabilization is expected to occur by the afternoon (MLCAPE values likely exceeding 2000 J/kg in spots). Additionally, although low level shear will remain weak, deep layer shear values are expected to approach 30-40 knots thanks to the subtropical jet overhead. This could lead to the organization of a few multicellular clusters/loosely organized supercells. Modeled profiles look to remain unidirectional, giving way to straight-lined hodographs, which would favor storm splits. Therefore, if we do manage to get a few strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon, would not be surprised to see some large hail. Convective coverage should quickly lower by the evening hours as we lose daytime heating.

Yet another round of scattered showers and storms is possible Sunday afternoon as one last shortwave passes overhead. Overall synoptics and thermodynamics are similar to that of Saturday, so we cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms this day either. We do get a brief break on Monday as the subtropical jet weakens and upper ridging passes overhead. Rain chances return for Tuesday and continue through midweek as a longwave trough slowly progresses across the CONUS. Although too early to nail down specifics at this time, it should be noted that machine-learning/CIPS analog guidance continue to paint rather broad areas of severe probabilities across portions of the Deep South each day throughout the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. Although the highest probabilities at this point look to remain just to our north, things are bound to change since we are still 5-7 days out. Therefore, we will keep a close eye on trends over the coming days.

Temperatures remain warm through the period, with highs topping out in the 80s each day (potentially some low 90s by early next week) and lows will only be in the 60s. The rip current risk is expected to lower through the weekend and remain low into early next week. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Showers and storms associated with an MCS (or two) are expected to progress into the western half of the area overnight and weaken in the process, possibly managing to continue across the eastern portions of the area Saturday morning before ending. Additional convective development is expected Saturday afternoon. IFR to MVFR conditions will accompany the convection. There is the potential for strong gusty winds mainly west of I-65 overnight. Southerly winds diminish this evening, then become southwesterly 5-10 knots on Saturday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through the weekend and into early next week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 83 66 85 / 30 50 20 40 Pensacola 67 79 68 83 / 10 40 30 30 Destin 68 78 68 80 / 10 40 30 30 Evergreen 60 84 61 87 / 20 70 40 30 Waynesboro 63 83 63 84 / 50 60 30 50 Camden 62 81 62 83 / 40 70 40 30 Crestview 61 84 63 88 / 10 50 30 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.