textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- High rain chances will be in place through the weekend and into early next week, especially over the western half of the forecast area.

- A conditional severe threat may materialize Friday morning. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

UPDATE

Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Overall forecast remains on track. An occasional mini spinny supercell has managed to organize out of a cluster of thunderstorms across Baldwin into Monroe counties this morning. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall remain the primary threats with storms, but the most robust updrafts next few hours could support a threat for damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado. Anticipation is for activity to temporarily wane into sunrise before the next round of forcing moves in to refire strong to potentially severe storms through the mid to late morning hours. Deep layer shear weakens with time, going from the 30 to 40 knots we see now to about 20 to 25 knots by mid morning. Conversely, low level winds ramp up into the morning with 850mb flow increasing to around 30 knots or so. This will likely transition us from the mini spinny environment we currently see to more of a multicell and transient supercell/mini-spinny environment by mid morning.

The other threat would be from heavy rainfall as storms train over the same areas in southeast Mississippi into southwest Alabama. PMM total rainfall from the HREF ensemble suggests a corridor of 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible through late morning, particularly over far southeastern Mississippi into far southwestern Alabama. Some of this has already been realized from the initial cluster of strong storms which left a stretch of upwards of 6 inches of rain from far northeastern Mobile County into northern Baldwin County. If a corridor of heavy rainfall like that sets up over more urbanized areas it could cause some flash flooding problems. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Through Sunday...a series of upper level shortwave troughs move northeast along the west side of an upper ridge stretching north along the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface ridge stretches west over the East Coast due to the upper ridge, whilst the passing shortwave energy maintains a semi-stationary surface front running from southern Tx to the Tenn River Valley. A soupy airmass (precipitable h20 values of 1.8"-2.0") that has moved over the Southeast south of the surface front is maintained through the weekend. With the added upper level instability, rain chances remain high through the period.

There is concern that strong to severe storms will develop later tonight into Friday morning as a strong series of shortwaves pass northwest of the forecast area. MLCapes vary in the guidance (between 1500-2500J/kg) with 0-1km helicities in the 80-120 m^2/s^2. Add in a modest 30-35kt 850mb jet passing northwest of the forecast area working with any left over boundaries left over from Thursday's activity, wind damage from any spinners along with brief tornadoes are possible, with timing beginning near sunrise Friday. Also, with the soupy airmass allowing for efficient rainers, water issues are possible, especially if any favorable boundaries are generated. Daily thunderstorms continue through the weekend, especially along and northwest of I-65, but any decent upper support from the passing shortwave energy is missing until Sunday, when several rounds of shortwave energy organize into a closed upper low over Tx. The above seasonal rain chances will create a below seasonal to around/above gradient in high temperatures through the weekend. Low to mid 80s Friday see an uptick to mid to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday, with the lower temperatures being north of Highway 84 Saturday and northwest of I-65 Sunday. With the high moisture levels and overnight cloud cover limiting overnight cooling, low temperatures are expected to be above seasonal norms, with upper 60s to mid 70s expected.

Monday through Thursday...the struggle between the upper low over Tx and upper high off the East coast continues, with better rain chances over the northwestern half of the forecast area, closer to the upper energy. High temperatures remain around or below seasonal norms over most of the forecast area through the period, with low temperatures a bit above seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent onshore flow varies in strength, with onshore swell varying in response. The tidal cycle slowly decreases into the coming week, but the Rip Risk remains moderate to at times high through most of the week. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR to MVFR flight category presently prevails across the area, with the expectation for MVFR to IFR ceilings to settle in during the overnight hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through daybreak, mainly west of the I-65 corridor, potentially reducing ceiling and visibility by several flight categories at times. Coverage of showers and storms becomes more scattered throughout the day today. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, gusting 15 to 20 knots during the afternoon hours. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through this weekend and into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. MM/25 /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 84 73 86 72 / 100 60 70 20 Pensacola 82 75 85 74 / 90 50 60 20 Destin 83 74 84 74 / 60 50 60 20 Evergreen 82 71 85 70 / 90 60 90 20 Waynesboro 82 70 85 69 / 100 70 70 50 Camden 80 69 84 68 / 100 60 90 30 Crestview 84 71 87 70 / 80 60 80 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.