textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Moderate to strong northeasterly winds may occasionally create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas through Friday, becoming a High Risk this weekend.

- Rain returns to the area this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Through Sunday...an upper low over the Caribbean opens before moving off beginning Friday. A surface ridge over the Gulf builds a bit north through the end of the week as an upper level shortwave trough moves northeast over the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains. Shortwave energy from this upper trough passes over the Southeast Saturday into Sunday. A very dry airmass that had passed over the forecast area today moves off, with moisture levels slowly rising through late Friday, then faster Friday night into Saturday as low level flow over the northern Gulf coast and Southeast shifts to easterly, then more southeasterly. This allows better Atlantic and Gulf moisture to move inland. Moisture returns vary through Saturday afternoon (between 1.2" and 1.6" on average), but with the more organized southeasterly flow returning Saturday night as the bulk of the shortwave energy passes, moisture levels rise into the 1.7"-2.0" range by sunrise Sunday. Guidance is consistent in the best rain chances being between noon Saturday and noon Sunday. The quick passage of the system and consistently dry conditions will help to temper any water issues. If there is, poor drainage areas along and south of I-10 is shaping up to be the area most affected. Looking at strong to severe storms, instability is modest at best (MLCapes topping at around 1000J/kg) and bulk wind shear is nothing to write home about (topping out between 25 and 30kts). Helicity is also on the low side (0-1km values less than 50m^2/s^2), so the risk of organized storms is expected to be low.

Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through Saturday before the bulk of the rain moves in, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s expected. For Sunday, rain cooling and decreased daytime heating will limit high temperatures to 70s (lower 70s northeast). Low temperatures rise, with the increase in moisture helping to counterbalance the current good overnight radiational cooling. Low temperatures in the low to mid 40s north of Highway 84 tonight rise into the upper 50s north of Highway 84 to upper 60s closer to the coast over the weekend.

Sunday night through Wednesday...A closed upper low approaches the Southeast through Wednesday. Path and speed are a bit hard to pin down, with an upper ridge preceding the closed low's approach. The passing upper ridge will keep temperatures above seasonal norms. The timing of the upper low is making the return of rain to the forecast area a bit of challenge. This forecast is based on guidance saying late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Taking a look at the Rip Risk on area beaches, a Moderate Risk of rip currents is maintained through the rest of the week, with an uptick to High in the coming weekend as winds over the Gulf take a more southeasterly shift, increasing swell making it to area beaches. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR flight category continues through tonight. Winds remain out of the northeast around 5 to 10 knots, relaxing below 5 knots after sunset. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light to moderate northeasterly winds prevails through Friday, occasionally becoming stronger well offshore. A moderate to occasionally strong and mostly easterly flow follows for Saturday through Monday. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 81 65 81 68 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 82 66 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 81 55 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 81 53 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 79 53 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 82 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.