textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late tonight through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A large upper high pressure system centered over the Tennessee Valley will retrograde westward to become centered over the ARKLATEX region Thursday evening. This upper high will remain nearly stationary Friday through the weekend but diminish in size as an upper low pressure area off the east Florida coast moves westward over the Florida Peninsula on Friday, and then into the eastern Gulf by the weekend. The upper low is expected to come to a crawl somewhere over the Gulf this weekend into early next week, but not exactly sure at this time where this may occur due to model differences. The GFS has the upper low nearly stalling over the north central Gulf on Sunday while the ECMWF and Canadian barely get out of the starting blocks and have it stalling near the Florida Big Bend area on Saturday. The surface ridge across the southern Appalachians into the Southeastern U.S. however will remain largely intact, but we are expecting a weak surface trough reflected at the surface associated with the upper low somewhere across the Gulf over the weekend into early next week. In the meantime, we are still looking at an easterly flow keeping the drier air flowing into our area through at least the remainder of the week with daytime humidity levels remaining low.

Outside of a few spotty showers today across coastal Alabama into southeast Mississippi, the forecast area will remain rain-free through Saturday morning, followed by a daily occurrence of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms returning over the weekend through the remainder of the forecast. Temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast. /22

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the evening with light southeasterly winds becoming light and variable after sunset. Some MVFR ceilings may reach inland along the coast, especially during the predawn to sunrise hours. Winds increase from east to west by dawn to 10-15 knots and prevail easterly. Expect wind gusts up to 25 knots, especially along the coast and marine areas. There is low confidence in isolated showers and thunderstorms along the coast and offshore in the morning. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow becomes strong Wednesday into Thursday. Winds relax to light to occasionally moderate easterlies to end the week. Seas increase to 4 to 7 feet on Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the marine waters late tonight through Thursday afternoon. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 94 75 91 71 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 93 77 91 74 / 10 10 0 0 Destin 92 78 91 74 / 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 97 74 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 97 73 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 97 74 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 94 74 91 69 / 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.