textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 520 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026 - A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Monday night as wind chills fall into the upper teens to middle 20s.

- A mix of rain and snow is possible for much of the area late Saturday night until mid Sunday morning.

- Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft Saturday night into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

An interesting pattern unfolds over the CONUS as a vigorous upper trof near the East Coast moves off into the western Atlantic tonight as a powerful system dives into the northern/central Plains. This latter feature evolves by Saturday into a rather large upper trof spanning the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, with the sharp base of the upper trof set to later move across the forecast area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. In response to this large pattern, a surface low passes well off to the north and brings a strong cold front through the forecast area Friday night into early Saturday morning. Dry conditions continue for the forecast through Friday, then will have chance to good chance pops shift across the area Friday night into Saturday morning as the front moves through. Some lingering precipitation is possible along and east of I-65 Saturday afternoon, but the main interest of the forecast occurs when isentropic lift (overrunning and layer lift) strengthens Saturday evening ahead of the base of the sharp upper trof approaching from the west. This will support slight chance to chance pops for most of the forecast area Saturday night, with the higher pops generally along and east of I-65, then pops taper off and end west to east Sunday morning. Temperatures will be dropping Saturday night as colder air flows into the area, and the forecast continues to indicate cold rain gradually switching over to a mix of rain and snow from after midnight Saturday night until mid Sunday morning.

Current indications are that the chance of snowfall of 1 inch or more is less than 20% mainly over south central Alabama and less than 10% elsewhere. These chances are lower than what was indicated on the previous shift, though it is unclear yet if this represents a trend. The chance of at least a tenth of an inch of snowfall (.1 inch) is about 20-45%. Based on this, it appears that a generally light snowfall is possible for much of the area, and it's possible that a Winter Weather Advisory could become necessary. We will continue to closely monitor this situation. Another concern will be that wind chill values will drop Saturday night into early Sunday morning to 20-25 over much of the area, except for 25-30 near the coast. At this time, these values look to remain just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria of 11-20 over interior areas and 16-25 over the southern portion of the area, but will continue to monitor. While dry conditions are expected to follow through Wednesday, a reinforcing cold front moves through the area on Monday, and it's possible that a Cold Weather Advisory could become necessary for all but the immediate coast Monday night into early Tuesday morning due to wind chill values dropping to the upper teens to mid 20s. Another chance for rain returns to the forecast for Wednesday night into Friday as a series of shortwaves move across the region. It appears that temperatures will remain warm enough for the precipitation to remain as rain. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Tuesday, except for a moderate risk for the western Florida panhandle beaches Friday night. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions should prevail over the next 24 hours. Some lower ceilings will try to spread into the area by the evening/overnight hours, however, we are still anticipating flight categories to remain VFR at this time. Winds by this afternoon will turn southerly to southwesterly and increase to around 10-15 knots. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A light to moderate southerly flow develops by Friday then switches to the northwest by Saturday morning as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow becomes strong Saturday night then diminishes Sunday into Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for much of the marine area Saturday night then ends over the near shore waters Sunday morning followed by the 20-60 nm portion in the afternoon. A light offshore flow prevails for Monday then strengthens Monday night before diminishing on Tuesday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 47 57 32 / 0 30 20 30 Pensacola 63 52 60 35 / 0 30 40 50 Destin 63 54 62 37 / 0 30 40 60 Evergreen 64 44 56 30 / 0 40 30 30 Waynesboro 64 39 52 27 / 0 50 10 10 Camden 61 41 52 28 / 0 50 20 20 Crestview 63 47 60 32 / 0 30 40 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.