textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 235 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. The greatest hazard will be heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Heat and humidity will continue through next week. Peak heat indices will range from around 95-100 this weekend, increasing to around 103-110 by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The upper trough over the eastern CONUS is beginning to retreat to the northeast, leaving the area in a weakness between the subtropical ridges. Visible satellite is revealing the presence of a weak surface low that is nearly stationary over our marine zones this afternoon. This low likely provided enough vorticity for at least one notable waterspout just off the coast this morning. Tropical development is not currently expected with this feature due to dry air and wind shear.

A band of tropical showers and a few thunderstorms has developed along and just southeast of the I-65 corridor this afternoon along a differential heating boundary. Given PWATs around 2.2 inches east of I-65, this activity may lead to some localized flooding due to high rainfall rates in excess of 3 in/hr. Weak mid-level lapse rates should keep the severe threat low, but some brief gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Farther northwest, a drier airmass filtering in aloft should keep rain chances under 20%.

Residual dry air on Saturday should keep rain chances limited to around 30-40% over the interior, with PoPs remaining below 20% across northwestern portions of the area. The weak offshore low is expected to slowly migrate westward through the weekend, with southeasterly flow on the backside drawing a deeply moist tropical airmass back into the area Saturday night into Sunday. The influx of tropical moisture associated with the low should bring a few bands of showers and thunderstorms into coastal areas late Saturday night into Sunday. PoPs are currently in the 60-80% range along the coast Sunday, with the interior remaining somewhat drier. REFS guidance suggests PWATs approaching 2.2 inches again, so any slow-moving or training storms will remain capable of producing torrential rainfall and localized flooding. The most widespread rainfall should remain offshore, and any robust updrafts will continue to have the potential to produce waterspouts, especially during the morning hours.

By early next week, high pressure is expected to build over the Southeast CONUS, establishing a persistent southeasterly low-level flow pattern over the area. Tropical moisture should maintain somewhat higher than normal rain chances early next week, with the greatest coverage likely along the inland-propagating sea breeze. A bit less cloud cover would allow temperatures to climb back into the 90s areawide. Combined with high humidity, heat indices are currently forecast to increase to around 103-110 by the middle of next week, but this may be reduced some in later forecasts.

At the beaches, the risk of rip currents has increased to Moderate for Sunday due to building onshore flow. However, the risk may increase as early as Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, a Low risk is forecast for the remainder of the forecast period, but this is subject to change. JGC/98

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. A surface low just off the coast was helping to generate showers and storms, generally east of the I-65 corridor. Given this activity, have included a TEMPO group for KPNS and KJKA to account for scattered thunderstorms in the area. Further west, confidence was only high enough to keep the PROB30 group. Activity will diminish later in the afternoon, with VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. /73

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Mainly light and variable winds will be in place through this evening as a weak low pressure system develops over the coastal waters. A moderate (10-20 knot) easterly to southeasterly flow will develop for the weekend, becoming a lighter southeasterly flow early next week. By Tuesday through late week, light winds will follow a typical diurnal cycle, with northeasterly flow at night and southeasterly flow during the day. Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected through the weekend, becoming isolated to scattered by next week. Expect higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. JGC/98

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 89 72 88 / 10 30 50 70 Pensacola 74 87 75 87 / 40 40 70 60 Destin 75 85 75 88 / 60 60 60 70 Evergreen 69 91 69 90 / 20 30 20 40 Waynesboro 70 94 71 91 / 10 20 10 50 Camden 70 91 71 90 / 20 40 20 20 Crestview 69 88 70 90 / 20 40 30 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.