textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 533 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 - A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 1AM tonight to 9 AM Thursday as wind chills fall into the teens to lower 20s.

- Strong winds over the marine area will create hazardous conditions for small craft through mid week, with Gale conditions expected over open Gulf waters later tonight.

- Flurries are possible Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Now through Wednesday...

Guidance continues to advertise a roller coaster in store for the forecast area and nearby through the forecast. Starting with today through Thursday, a pair of upper level shortwaves pass over the Southeast today into Thursday, with a strong cold front moving over the forecast area this afternoon into this evening. A colder, drier airmass moves over the forecast area behind the front, with apparent temperatures dropping into the mid teens to low 20s tonight, as ambient temperatures bottom out in the mid 20s north of Highway 84 to low/mid 30s south of I-10. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the forecast area for later tonight into Thursday morning. Winds lighten Thursday as a surface high passes over the forecast area Thursday into Thursday night, precluding the need for an advisory as temperatures drop into the around 25 to upper 20s Thursday night. The cold air will limit daytime high temperatures to the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to around 50s along the coast. The strong northerly flow will bring dangerous offshore winds to area waters tonight into Thursday.

On to the next period of interest, Friday through the weekend. An upper level shortwave trough swings around the base of an upper low over the Great Lakes Friday, as a stronger shortwave begins to dive south around the west side of the upper low. This energy merges with the low, then dives south over the eastern Conus Saturday into Sunday, with another strong cold front moving south over the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. A strong reinforcing front passes Saturday night. Some moisture return occurs ahead of the first frontal passage for this period, with precipitable h20 values rising to near 1", enough for some rainshowers Friday night into Saturday. Drier air begins to overspread the forecast area behind this front, with precipitable h20 values dropping to 0.5" northwest to 0.8" southeast just before the second cold push occurs. Temperatures top out in the mid 50s to around 60 Saturday, around seasonal. Solutions for Saturday night as cold air moves over the area have been consistent, with inconsistent timing of upper dynamics, along with drier air pushing south with the second front. The latest guidance is advertising enough ingredients for precipitation over mainly the southern half of the forecast area and over the Gulf. The biggest question will be what form the precipitation will be, with a cold and saturated enough airmass in the lowest 15k'. Consensus in the guidance says enough for light snow to snow flurries on the back side of the precipitation. The GFS is advertising enough overrunning/southwesterly flow in the 750mb and above to bring significant accumulations, mainly along and southeast of I-65. This is a significant increase from previous runs, and other guidance. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles are hinting at very small accumulations, so at this point, am just mentioning light snow/flurries behind the rain. I would like to see more consistency in the guidance before I go any higher than flurries, and with this time frame being in the extended, have some time to play with. Will keep an eye on it. High temperatures ahead of the first front top out in the low to mid 60s Friday, dropping into the mid 40s to around 50 for Sunday. Low temperatures crater from around 40 northwest to around 50 along the coast Friday night, 20s for Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday, zonal upper flow sets up over the Southeast. Yet another frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday will reinforce a dry airmass over the forecast area. high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are expected Monday and Wednesday, with the passing front dropping temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s for Tuesday. Low temperatures in the upper 20s north of Highway 84 to upper 30s along the coast are expected MOnday and Tuesday nights.

A roller coaster of winds, mainly with respect to direction, will help to limit longer periods of onshore flow, keeping the Rip Risk at Low, to occasionally Moderate levels. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period as light rain showers continue to slide east across the area. Could see a brief period of -SHRA at the PNS terminal over the next hour, but the rest of the terminals should stay dry. The back edge of the cloud shield will slide across the area between 08-11z with clear skies through the day on Thursday. Winds will continue to turn northwesterly to northerly over the next few hours as winds steadily increase. Expect northerly winds to ramp up in the pre-dawn hours with gusts to 20-30 kts throughout much of the morning and into the early afternoon. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 127 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A strong cold front moving over the area this afternoon will bring strong offshore flow tonight into Thursday. Gales, mainly by frequent gusts, are possible over our far offshore waters later tonight into Thursday morning. Light to moderate, mainly offshore flow expected Friday into the coming week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 62 31 50 29 / 20 10 0 0 Pensacola 61 32 48 33 / 30 20 0 0 Destin 61 34 49 33 / 50 20 0 0 Evergreen 58 26 46 22 / 50 20 0 0 Waynesboro 57 27 46 25 / 50 20 0 0 Camden 55 26 43 24 / 70 20 0 0 Crestview 61 29 48 22 / 40 20 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ067- 075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CST Thursday for GMZ670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ670- 675.

Gale Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ670-675.