textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- A High risk of rip currents continues along the Northwest Florida beaches through tonight with a Moderate Risk at the Alabama beaches.

- Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the triple digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Through Friday...an upper level low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley moves west to over the Southern Plains, with an upper level ridge over the northeastern Conus shifting south to over the Southeast, as a ridge builds north over the Rockies. Shortwave energy moves over the Southeast, providing the beginnings of a mean upper trough over the Southeast in the extended. A surface low centered over the Mississippi Delta shifts west with the upper low, with surface high pressure building over the Gulf. A drier airmass develops over the Gulf, then shifts north over western/central portions of the Southeast. Rain chances drop off with the increase in upper subsidence over the forecast area and drop in moisture levels. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible north of Highway 84 Wednesday, with a dry forecast for the rest of the week.

Looking at temperatures, near seasonal high temperatures Wednesday ( around 90 to low 90s) rise into the low to mid 90s by Friday with the increasing upper subsidence and decreasing deep layer moisture. Enough moisture remains in the boundary layer for Heat Indices to rise into the 99 to 106 degree range by Friday. Low temperatures rise from the low 70s Wednesday night over most of the forecast area to the mid 70s Friday night. Low temperatures along the coast remain in the upper 70s though the near term.

Saturday through the weekend...guidance continues to advertise shortwave energy organizing into an mean upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast this weekend. Increasing moisture moves back from the east with the developing upper trough. With varying placement of the upper trough, where over the precipitation returns to the region varies. The best compromise is showers and thunderstorms returning to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Temperatures rise more, to the mid/upper 90s by Tuesday. Heat indices also rise as moisture levels rise over the forecast area, rising to Heat Advisory levels over most of the area Monday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a light to at times moderate southwest to westerly flow eases, when combined with a decreasing tidal cycle, to drop the Rip Risk to a Low by the end of the week. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Generally VFR flight category will prevail across the region through the day today. An isolated shower or storm over interior portions of the area this afternoon may temporarily reduce flight category. Winds remain generally out of the southwest to west at less than 5 knots through daybreak, becoming 5 to 10 knots during the day. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow will continue through through the end of the week. A west to northwest flow will develop over the weekend as high pressure shifts west of the area. Seas generally 2 feet or less for the remainder of the week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 73 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 77 94 79 96 / 10 10 0 10 Destin 79 91 80 92 / 10 10 0 10 Evergreen 70 91 72 92 / 10 0 0 10 Waynesboro 70 93 72 94 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 70 90 72 90 / 10 0 0 10 Crestview 72 94 74 95 / 10 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT early this morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.