textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- A cold front will stall across eastern parts of the area today, before finally moving east tonight. A few isolated showers will be possible in this area throughout the day.

- A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area this weekend into early next week. Lows in the 40's can be expected widespread across the area, to even mid to upper 30's for inland/northern areas where patchy frost will be possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Performed a gridded forecast update this morning to bring in short-range guidance matched with obs/trends. Main focus was monitoring the ongoing fog for areas looking closely at obs and nighttime GOES-16 microphysics. Starting to already see the fog lift/thin out in some areas along the I-65 corridor as slightly drier air/dewpoints filter in from the north causing the stratus deck to rise some, but still will see low clouds in areas and patchy fog (some dense) through at least daybreak. Should increasing vis trends persist, may drop the dense fog advisory but if not, will let it ride through the expiration.

Otherwise, no major changes. Few light showers along the front from offshore south of Gulf shore, towards northwestern Florida into southern Alabama. These will remain light through the morning, but with the front being slow to depart, we could see redeveloping showers again later this afternoon mainly for far eastern areas (Okaloosa, Covington counties best confidence for now) and introduced PoP sin the 20-30% range for today. OTherwise, dry elsewhere with no major impacts expected today. KLG

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A cold front will stall across eastern parts of the area tonight into Thursday. A few light showers will remain possible along and ahead of the front through Thursday afternoon. Patchy dense fog will remain possible tonight due to plenty of low level moisture and light winds. A strong shortwave will move from the plains into the midwestern states Thursday afternoon and evening. This will push the front eastward and out of the area and usher in a much cooler and drier airmass for the end of the week into the weekend as strong high pressure builds into the area. Another fast moving system may approach the area late in the weekend into early next week. However, there is a large spread in the models this far out and will maintain a dry forecast for now.

A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area for the weekend into early next week. High temps on Sunday will be in the mid and upper 60s with upper 60s to around 70 Monday and Tuesday Lows in the mid and upper 30s across far northern areas will be possible Saturday night through Tuesday night. /13

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Will continue to closely monitor ongoing patchy areas of dense fog across inland terminals early this morning 12-15Z, with best coverage along and east of I-65. Otherwise, widespread low stratus remains in place dropping flight categories. Introduced morning TEMPO groups for these low ceilings, but should see a steady improvement after 14-15Z to VFR prevailing. Will see a few isolated -SHRA for far eastern areas, or areas across northwestern Florida to southern Alabama east of I-65, but impacts will be limited with only brief/temporary reductions in VIS/CIGs but VFR will prevail elsewhere. Will also mention the potential for patchy fog again later tonight after 06Z for far east terminals, but confidence in coverage/density remains low at this time. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 1249 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Onshore winds continue to weaken, becoming light and variable Thursday as a weakening front stalls near the northern Gulf coast. A light to moderate offshore flow develops Friday as the front moves offshore, becoming a moderate offshore flow over the weekend in the wake of a cold front. Seas 2 to 4 feet today continue to decrease to 1 to 2 feet by Thursday. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 59 79 52 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 79 64 79 57 / 20 10 0 0 Destin 79 66 79 58 / 40 10 0 0 Evergreen 79 56 78 48 / 10 10 0 0 Waynesboro 80 50 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 77 53 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 81 61 80 50 / 40 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>056- 059-060-261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...None. GM...None.