textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills continue through Sunday, with very little heating expected today.

- Gusty winds are expected today across the area, with gusts potentially as high as 40-45 mph in spots, especially along the coast.

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected to impact our local marine zones through Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are likely, along with the potential for low water levels in our bays and sounds, and the possibility of a light freezing spray Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Now through Friday...

Through the weekend, a pair of cold fronts cross the forecast area as a pair of upper level shortwaves pass over the Southeast. The first shortwave/cold front passes over the region tonight, ushering in a colder and drier airmass. With moisture return negligible ahead of this front, any precipitation is expected to be well offshore and light. A stronger cold front moves across the forecast area Saturday in response to a stronger upper level shortwave moving over the Southeast Saturday. This second front will enhance the cold airmass over the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper teens to mid 20s over most of the forecast area by Saturday morning with the first front. With strong winds, wind chills are expected to bottom out in the single digits to mid teens. The second shot of cold air Saturday will limit high temperatures over the forecast area to the 30s Saturday, with wind chills creeping into the 20s over the forecast area. The second shot of cold air will drop low temperatures into the teens over the forecast area Saturday night, with wind chills dropping into the single digits over the forecast area. An Excessive Cold Warning is in effect for the forecast area into Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Alabama and Florida Panhandle for Saturday into Saturday night as these stronger winds move across the area. Conditions begin to settle Sunday as surface high pressure begins to move east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley.

In the coming week, surface high pressure moves over the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, shifting low level flow back to onshore by Tuesday. A modest moisture return occurs by mid week before another front moves over the forecast area Wednesday. Deterministic guidance has come into better agreement with the front's passage. Temperatures rise back to near seasonal norms ahead of the front, dropping below behind. Temperatures moderate upwards through the end of the week, with onshore flow quickly returning to the forecast area.

Offshore flow through most of the forecast will limit any swell, keeping the Rip Risk low through the weekend into the coming week. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region. Strong northwesterly winds will persist through the day into tonight sustained near 15 to 20 knots gusting over 35 knots today. Winds gradually relax somewhat after sunset to sustained around 10 knots gusting to 20 to 25 knots, strongest nearer the coast. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Moderate to strong offshore flow develops tonight as a cold front passes. A reinforcing front passes Saturday, keeping offshore flow strong to very strong into Sunday. A Gale Warning is in effect for open Gulf waters and Mobile Bay beginning late Friday night, with a Small Craft Advisory likely to be issued for protected waters Thursday. Surface high pressure approaches area waters late Sunday into the coming week, easing winds over area waters into Monday, then shifting them to onshore in the coming week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 37 20 47 25 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 36 22 45 29 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 39 23 45 32 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 34 16 43 21 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 33 18 44 22 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 32 16 40 21 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 36 17 45 23 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ALZ051>060-261>264.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for FLZ201>206.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for FLZ201-203-205.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

GM...Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>636.

Gale Warning until 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675.