textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 240 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- A tropical disturbance in the Southwest Gulf has a High (near 100 percent) chance of developing into a Tropical Depression during midweek as it moves northeastward. Regardless of the track, there is an increasing potential of heavy rainfall late this week.

- A High Risk of rip currents is in effect through the remainder of the week. A Surf Advisory may also become necessary as surf heights near 5 feet.

- Moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds will create hazardous for small craft throughout the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the east coast and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will remain stalled off the coast. A northeasterly flow will continue to advect dry air into the area through Thursday. This will keep the area dry Wednesday into Thursday. Late in the week all eyes turn toward a developing disturbance in the southwestern Gulf. This disturbance will continue to develop as it drifts east then turns north later this week as steering flow increases between a trough moving into the northwest Gulf and a ridge building into the eastern Gulf.

There are two scenarios we are watching for...the first being a faster moving system that is stronger and the second being a slower moving system that will be weaker as it is affected more by stronger shear. At this point either scenario is possible and this system will bear close monitoring. Hopefully, additional data from the NOAA Gulfstream jet will aid model consensus later today. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will also be in the system tomorrow. Regardless of the track, some areas will receive more heavy rain especially along and east of the track as deep Gulf moisture interacts with the stalled frontal boundary. A severe weather risk may also develop and SPC has outlooked a day 5 severe risk across much of the area. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from NWS Mobile and from the National Hurricane Center.

A high risk of rip currents will continue through the week. High Surf will also increase late in the week. /13

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A moderate to strong northeast to east flow will continue through Thursday. Seas increase to 4 to 8 feet creating rough conditions offshore. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through late- week. Conditions may worsen late in the week and into the weekend due to the potential for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 69 84 68 84 / 10 10 0 0 Destin 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 0 10 Evergreen 61 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 61 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 59 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 63 83 61 83 / 0 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.