textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Patchy to areas of fog may develop tonight across the local area. Fog could be dense in spots.

- A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for Sunday night. Wind chills could drop to near 10 degrees.

- Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Our last warm day until next week is upon us as two upper troughs, the first over Canada dropping into the Great Lakes and a very weak southern stream trough over the northern Gulf, will move through the broader longwave pattern tonight into Sunday. To start, very subtle moisture advection continues as winds have become more southerly in advance of the first southern impulse. This has led to a gradual rise in temperatures and dewpoints now sneaking into the 60s along the coast. As this system approaches, dewpoints will likely top out later this afternoon mainly south of highway 84. Fog development has been iffy along the bay but as advection increases and dewpoints reach their peak this evening we will need to watch Mobile Bay and surrounding land areas for the development of sea fog. Current HREF and NBM probabilities hint at this possibly starting around 4 to 5 pm as temperatures cool but dewpoints increase. Confidence in how dense and if fog will be able to settle with slightly elevated near surface winds around 15 knots and cloud cover is currently keeping us from issuing any fog products. Radar this afternoon has shown some weak isentropic showers mainly north of highway 84. These will likely continue through the afternoon before increasing in coverage tonight as the upper troughs move in and ascent increases.

By tonight into Sunday, both upper troughs will begin to move into the area which will lead to a rather drastic change as cold arctic air plunges into the deep south Sunday into Sunday night. Some scattered showers will be possible along the approaching cold front late tonight into early Sunday morning before the gates of the arctic open. Looking at NBM probabilities and we continue to support temperatures being the coldest of the year. Probabilities of air temperatures less than 20 degrees are floating around 50-70 percent mainly north of highway 84 and probabilities of less than 25 degrees above 80% almost to the immediate coastline. Given the current trends getting colder and colder with each run and the fact that guidance tends to struggle with these shallow arctic airmasses, we have went ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the entirety of the area. On top of the cold temperatures we will likely see gusty winds behind the front leading to wind chills in the teens all the way to the coast.With wind chills dropping to near 10 degrees inland and 12 to 15 degrees along the coast, we will have to closely monitor the potential for some extreme cold products. The criteria is for wind chills less than 15 along the coastal counties and wind chills less than 10 inland. Given the current forecast, extreme cold products would be most likely across the coastal areas where winds may stay elevated enough to result in meeting criteria. This may look a little funky but overall coastal areas are not acclimated to these cold of conditions (as a coastal resident I can confirm that it will be wayyy to cold and I dread it already) and thus the impacts of cold temperatures tend to occur before areas further inland that are more acclimated. This is the reasoning for the higher thresholds across the coastal county and why we may end up with extreme cold products for areas that are technically warmer than areas to the north.

The good news is this cooldown is only temporary and things will quickly flip next week as the pattern flattens out and upper ridging begins to build over the eastern US. Expect a gradual warmup through next week as temperatures will rebound into the 70s by Thursday. Our next rain chances look to come well after next week. BB-8

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions prevail until around midnight with a mix of low and mid level clouds, with a few light showers popping up from time to time along and north of U.S. Highway 84. Very low ceilings and patchy to areas of fog will develop after midnight ahead a strong cold approaching from the north. Most ceilings will reach the LIFR to IFR criteria, with visibilities mostly reaching IFR to MVFR criteria. A line of showers will accompany the cold front, which is expected to reach the coast by daybreak Sunday, with northerly winds sustained around 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the wake of the front. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Light onshore flow will persist through tonight. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday through Sunday night. Frequent gusts to gale force will be possible over the Gulf waters with strong small craft conditions possible elsewhere. A Gale warning is now in effect from Sunday evening through late Sunday night. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 47 56 23 49 / 60 30 10 10 Pensacola 52 61 27 50 / 40 30 10 10 Destin 53 64 31 51 / 30 30 10 10 Evergreen 43 52 21 50 / 70 30 10 10 Waynesboro 39 47 19 48 / 90 20 10 10 Camden 39 47 19 48 / 80 20 10 10 Crestview 49 58 22 51 / 40 30 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for GMZ670-675.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ670-675.