textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- There is the potential for strong to severe storms this weekend and heavy rain each day though the weekend.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will occur today through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A cut off upper low over the northern Mexico shears out across Texas through Friday night, and aids in sending a continuing series of shortwaves downstream across the forecast region through Sunday. A large and broad upper trof meanwhile spans much of the eastern half of the CONUS, then amplifies and progresses across the eastern states through early next week. A stalled frontal boundary across the northern Gulf drifts slowly into the forecast area through Friday night then meanders over the area through Saturday, weakening in the process. A surface low is expected to bring another cold front through the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday morning. Periods of showers and storms move across central and southern portions of the forecast area on Friday, possibly lingering into Friday night, then have gone with very high pops for Saturday with the weak boundary lifting into the area. For Sunday, have gone with chance to likely pops as it's possible some vestiges of the frontal boundary may still be over the area along with the continuing series of shortwaves. Have gone with chance pops Monday morning with dry conditions developing by Monday evening in the wake of the next cold front, with dry conditions then following through Friday of next week.

The convection that occurs on Friday looks to be rooted above 800 mb, though 0-6 km bulk shear values around 50 knots are indicated. While the convection will be elevated, cannot rule out some strong storms over the southern portion of the area where the best forcing will be present. The convection becomes surface based on Saturday, and there is the potential for 0-6 km bulk shear to increase to 40-50 knots over the southern portion of the area in the afternoon while further inland shear values will be much lower. Depending on how the convection plays out, there could be the potential for strong wind gusts on Saturday, mainly over the southern portion of the area. Will need to monitor for locally heavy rainfall as well due to the potential for storms to repeatedly traverse the same areas. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Monday. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are generally in place across the area at issuance time, although an MVFR ceiling at around 2500ft is starting to develop along the coast. Over the next few hours, this MVFR cloud deck is expected to expand across the remainder of our coastal counties, with VFR conditions continuing for inland counties. By the late morning hours and into the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will start to develop and pass across the area. Highest coverage looks to be over the southern half of the area. Expect brief reductions in ceilings and visibility in some of the heavier storms. Rain chances decrease by the evening hours, with low-end MVFR ceilings remaining prevalent. Light northerly to northeasterly winds this morning will turn more easterly to southeasterly by the afternoon/evening hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly flow will prevail through this afternoon. Winds turn onshore tonight and will continue through the weekend. Offshore winds return on Monday and will increase to a moderate to occasionally strong flow by Monday night in the wake of a cold front. A brief Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for our local Gulf waters Monday night. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 67 80 68 / 80 70 90 50 Pensacola 77 70 80 70 / 70 60 90 60 Destin 78 70 79 70 / 70 40 80 60 Evergreen 74 60 79 63 / 70 80 90 50 Waynesboro 72 62 78 64 / 70 60 70 50 Camden 72 60 77 62 / 30 70 80 40 Crestview 78 64 81 65 / 70 70 90 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.