textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Rain chances increase through the remainder of the week, especially over the western half of the forecast area.

- Localized patchy dense fog will be possible over the next few nights.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Light southerly surface winds will occur today through the upcoming weekend as a surface ridge remains intact across the southeast states and northeast Gulf. Atmospheric moisture will remain moderate with PWATs generally ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches through Saturday. A continuous stream of upper mini- shortwaves moving over the lower Mississippi river in a deep southwesterly flow will result in a steady increase in shower and thunderstorm activity through the remainder of the week, especially during the daytime hours with decreasing stability from diurnal heating. The highest chance of precipitation occurring today and Friday will along and west of I- 65, and then north of I-10 on Saturday. We still do not anticipate any organized severe weather, but some of the stronger storms will have the potential of producing gusty surface winds and frequent lightning. In addition, some of the slower moving storms will be capable of producing localized nuisance flooding.

The light southerly wind flow mentioned earlier persisting all week does maintain some boundary-layer moisture across our area that should result in patchy late night/early morning fog over the course of the week. High temperatures inland will reach the middle to upper 80s over the next three days, with a few localized spots reaching the 90 degree mark east of I-65. Apparent temps in the middle 90s are possible on Saturday across much of the area. Lows however will remain steady through Saturday with upper 60s to lower 70s inland and middle 70s along the coast. These lows will be about 6 to 11 degrees above normal. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR flight category generally prevails for the moment but should give way to MVFR ceilings as we head into the late overnight and daybreak hours this morning. Some patchy fog, locally dense, can't be ruled out as well in the usual trouble spots early this morning. Ceilings improve quickly after sunrise, with VFR flight category prevailing again for all locations by mid morning. Winds remain light out of the southeast near or less than 5 knots this morning, becoming 5 to 10 knots out of the southeast to south late morning into the afternoon hours. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through this weekend into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 86 72 84 72 / 30 40 70 40 Pensacola 86 74 84 74 / 10 30 50 30 Destin 85 74 84 74 / 0 10 30 20 Evergreen 89 70 86 70 / 40 20 70 30 Waynesboro 87 70 83 70 / 60 50 80 60 Camden 87 69 83 70 / 50 20 80 40 Crestview 90 70 88 71 / 10 10 30 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.