textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 551 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Strong to severe storms are possible today. Frequent wind gusts in excess of 40mph are expected outside of storms with a Wind Advisory in effect this morning into mid afternoon. A High risk of rip currents remains in effect through tonight.

- Bitter cold temperatures are expected tonight and Monday night with overnight temperatures dipping into the teens to lower 20s. Wind chills values both nights could range from as low as the single digits well inland to the teens near the coast. Cold temperatures continue Tuesday night into Saturday night.

- Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from late tonight through early Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Isolated to scattered showers continue across the area. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase through daybreak, with isolated strong to severe storms becoming possible along and ahead of a cold front through mid afternoon. In the wake of the front, bitterly cold temperatures follow as the forecast dries out through the rest of the week.

As we head through daybreak, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage as a shortwave moves across the area. A pre-frontal trough over the western FL panhandle into south-central AL will serve as a focus for development near daybreak. Surface based instability will be generally near or below 500j/kg, but elevated instability may exceed 500j/kg. Given large, curved hodographs with deep layer shear values nearing 60 knots, and mostly straight line hodographs above the 1km layer where storms will be rooted, the potential will exist for some elevated supercells capable of producing large hail as the primary threat initially. As instability increases through mid to late morning, surface based thunderstorms will begin increasingly likely. Hazards will likely shift from the hail threat to more of a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat. There is the chance for some isolated supercells ahead of a QLCS, but the main show will likely come from the QLCS itself as it bulldozes its way through the area. Forecast guidance has steadily sped up the forward progression of this, with the QLCS maturing as it approaches the I-65 corridor by late morning and exiting the forecast area no later than mid afternoon. Given a very strong 850mb jet of 50 to 55kts the QLCS will probably be able to transfer down damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph. Hodographs start to elongate and lose curvature with time, but ample low level SRH approaching 300m2/s2 should allow for at least a low end threat for a tornado or two within the QLCS itself and in association with any supercells ahead of it.

Prior to the frontal passage there is the expectation for frequent strong wind gusts above 40mph areawide outside of any showers or storms. This is thanks to the aforementioned strong low level winds above the surface between 925 and 850mb in conjunction with adequate mixing of the boundary layer. Given this expectation, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire area starting around daybreak and running through mid afternoon.

In the wake of the front, attention turns to bitterly cold temperatures. Overnight lows fall into the upper teens to middle 20's for most locations, but winds remain strong allowing for very cold wind chills in the 5 to 15 degree range areawide. An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued beginning at midnight tomorrow night through late Monday morning. The expectation is for bitterly cold temperatures to remain in the area Monday night as lows dip into the middle to upper teens for most locations. Winds will be a little more relaxed as high pressure starts to settle in, but wind chills will still fall into the 8 to 15 degree range. Given this, have opted to go forth with another Extreme Cold Watch for Monday night into mid Tuesday morning. Cold weather will remain throughout the rest of the week as lows fall into the lower to middle 20's each night with wind chills persisting in the teens to lower 20's each night. Cold Weather Advisories will likely be needed each night throughout the rest of the week. Afternoon highs will remain cold in the 30's and 40's Monday and middle 40's to lower 50's Tuesday through Friday. A High Risk of rip currents continues for AL and FL panhandle beaches through Sunday night. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Mostly IFR to MVFR ceilings will prevail this morning as a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms approaches from the west by mid morning and reaching the I-65 corridor by mid-day. Winds will be strong out of the south ahead of the storms with frequent gusts to around 35 to 40 knots. Some low level wind shear will be possible across southcentral Alabama this afternoon with roughly 45 knots of southwesterly shear at 2000ft will be present. Storms will be possible of damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Behind the front, winds will quickly turn out of the northwest and remain strong into the overnight hours. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly flow prior to daybreak quickly becomes strong southerly flow this morning. Winds switch to the northwest late this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front moves through. A strong offshore flow develops tonight, gradually diminishing Monday night into Tuesday. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible mainly well offshore today into Monday evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early Tuesday morning. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 25 42 19 / 100 20 0 0 Pensacola 72 28 44 23 / 100 50 0 0 Destin 72 31 47 27 / 90 70 0 0 Evergreen 71 23 41 18 / 100 30 0 0 Waynesboro 68 20 39 15 / 100 0 0 0 Camden 70 20 38 16 / 100 10 0 0 Crestview 74 27 43 18 / 100 60 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for ALZ051>060-261>266.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for FLZ201>206.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for FLZ201>206.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079.

Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ655-675.