textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- After a line of storms exits the area this afternoon, dry conditions are expected through Tuesday morning.

- Isolated to scattered storms are possible north of US-84 on Tuesday and Wednesday, with little not impacts expected.

- A cold front will move through the region towards the end of the week, bringing a line of storms through the area Wednesday night, followed by a cooling trend into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows a closed low over western Canada, with a trough extending through the Intermountain West and an upper low over New England. Meanwhile, upper ridging has been trying to build northward over much of the Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and TN Valleys. Weaker flow aloft, despite the building ridge, has allowed several shortwaves to eject from the base of the trough out west west and within the northwest flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Meanwhile, at the surface, moisture remains abundant and enough to keep MCSs together as they reach our area. The latest MCS, moving through, will be out of the area by the afternoon, leaving partly cloudy skies in its wake. Like yesterday, there should be ample daytime heating this afternoon and temps will likely warm into the low to mid 80s, higher in areas that aren't being impacted by the MCS, so east of I-65. The ridge will build northward overnight, and there should be enough subsidence with the weaker high rises to keep things dry through Monday.

Meanwhile, a shortwave is expected to develop and strengthen as it ejects from the trough to our west late tonight, breaking off from the larger pattern. Surface cyclogenesis will occur as the shortwave moves into the Plains, with a cold front developing and trailing to its south. The shortwave will quickly move to the northeast, reaching the Great Lakes overnight Monday into Tuesday while the associated cold front extends to the southwest from its surface low. This first system won't impact the local area much, but it sets the stage for a pattern change that begins to take shape midweek.

By Tuesday morning, the first trough will weaken and move to the northeast while the cold front generally stalls to our north. The ridge set up over the local area will dampen Monday into Tuesday, with flow aloft becoming zonal. Weak shortwaves will move across the area, with isolated to scattered showers early Tuesday morning through Tuesday night, mainly north of US-84. The original trough to the west will begin to move eastward Tuesday, as a second surface low develops over the Mississippi Valley. This low will slide along the previously stalled front, with a strengthening cold front trailing to the southwest. The trough will amplify and help swing the cold front through the area Wednesday night, with it expected to exit the area early Thursday morning. In terms of impacts with this, still not expecting much, and confidence is generally low given discrepancies in timing. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop along the front to our west and then move east-southeast as the system traverses the region. Depending on the timing of this front, we may be unstable enough for a few strong storms. Main threat would be gusty winds.

Behind the front, high pressure will build and a much needed cool down is in store. We'll see highs in the mid to upper 80s during the first part of the week, dropping into the 70s by the weekend. Overnight lows look to begin the week in the 60s and then fall into the 50s next Saturday. Some spots across the northern counties may even drop into the 40s on Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Behind an exiting line of storms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the TAF period. These storms should clear KPNS within the hour, with lingering light rain at KJKA and KPNS not expecting to produce any impacts. Skies will clear overnight, as winds become light or calm, setting the stage for low visibilities. At this point, confidence is only high enough to include MVFR visibilities (~4SM). Visibility will improve shortly after sunrise. /73

MARINE

Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through Wednesday. Winds become northerly Wednesday night as a cold front moves through, then gradually transition to a predominately easterly flow for Friday. /73

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 86 65 85 67 / 60 20 0 0 Pensacola 83 67 81 69 / 30 10 0 0 Destin 81 68 81 69 / 30 10 10 0 Evergreen 88 61 90 62 / 60 10 10 10 Waynesboro 84 63 89 65 / 30 20 10 10 Camden 83 62 87 64 / 20 10 10 10 Crestview 88 61 89 62 / 30 10 10 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.