textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Strong northeast winds will persist over the Gulf and area bays and sounds with continued hazardous conditions for mariners.

- An elevated wildfire risk will persist on Sunday due to low relative humidity values and continued dry conditions across southeast Mississippi into southwest Alabama.

- A High Risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches tonight into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Forecast remains on track; no updates needed. /96

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

A deep upper trough will persist over the eastern half of the country as an upper level low pressure system cuts off over the Mid Atlantic and intensifies. At the surface, high pressure continues to build over the north central Gulf coast with northerly winds over land continuing to gradually diminish in intensity. Dry conditions will persist through the end of this weekend with a continuation of below average temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with overnight low temperatures ranging from the middle 40s over interior sections of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, to the upper 40s along the I-10 corridor and lower to middle 50s along the immediate coast.

The mid and upper level low pressure system and associated troughing will move very slowly eastward before stalling early next week as the low get cutoff from the polar jet stream which lifts north into southern Canada. Meanwhile, over our area mid and upper level heights rise and build temporarily eastward over the north-central Gulf Coast early next week. This will support a continuation of dry conditions along with gradually modifying temperatures. Diurnal temperature spreads will increase with the dry airmass in place with high temperatures rising into the middle to upper 70s areawide by Tuesday. Low temperatures will still drop to below average values with lower to middle 40s over interior areas to the lower and middle 50s along the coast.

Another mid level shortwave trough will drop southeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South Wednesday night. This feature will help to deepen the longwave troughing along the East Coast. As far as our local weather, there will be very little in the way of sensible changes with the passage of this shortwave. Temperatures will remain unchanged through the end of next week with highs still reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows ranging from the middle 40s interior areas, to middle 50s along the coast. Moisture levels will remain limited through next week so dry weather will continue through the entire forecast period.

A High Risk of rip currents will continue through Monday night before gradually falling to a Moderate Risk Tuesday and Low Risk Tuesday night through the remainder of next week. Please remain out of the water until the rip current risk drops on Tuesday. /JLH

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Breezy northeasterly winds are expected to continue throughout the day today, with gusts potentially reaching 20-25 knots late this morning into the afternoon hours. Winds are expected to lessen by the evening hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Strong northeasterly winds will continue across the marine areas, with frequent gusts over gale force to persist over the offshore 20-60nm zones into midday Sunday. Therefore, the gale warning will be extended through 18z Sunday. Elsewhere, winds remain strong enough to keep Small Craft Advisories in place. By Sunday afternoon, all winds should drop below gale force with Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing for the open Gulf waters and Small Craft Exercise Caution over bays and sounds. Small Craft Advisory winds will persist over the open Gulf waters through 18z Monday before diminishing over all marine areas Monday afternoon and evening. The strong winds will keep hazardous seas in place through the rest of this weekend and into early next week before gradually diminishing. /JLH

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Dry conditions will keep afternoon relative humidity values between 28-35% on Sunday afternoon. Surface winds will continue to weaken as compared to early in the weekend and this will keep conditions below Red Flag Warning criteria. Transport winds will be generally northeasterly Sunday between 5-10 knots and between 4-8 knots Monday from the northeast. Dispersion indices will be generally good both Sunday and Monday each afternoon. /JLH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 49 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 54 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 71 56 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 70 46 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 72 44 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 68 45 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 69 48 72 46 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655.

Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ670-675.