textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents Sunday night into Monday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Increasing concern for the potential of severe storms along a squall line that slides across the area late Sunday into early Monday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main threats.

- Increasing confidence in at least 4-6 hours of below freezing temperatures early Tuesday morning behind a strong cold front across our interior counties in south Alabama and south Mississippi. Strong marine winds are expected early Monday morning behind the front with gale force gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A rather active 48 to 72 hours is on tap as a rather potent system moves across the area Sunday night into Monday. We are expecting multiple hazards to occur during this period and hazards will be sectioned out below.

Synopsis...deep southwesterly flow aloft will gradually increase this afternoon and evening as ridging builds over the Bahamas. Moisture will surge northward tonight into Sunday in advance of a rather potent upper trough that will dig into the central US by midday Sunday. A potent upper jet will quickly overspread a rather large open warm sector Sunday afternoon and overnight leading to increasing ascent across most of the eastern US. A stout cold front will quickly sweep across the Mississippi valley into the southeastern US sunday night. Exact timing of this front and adjacent ascent seems to be ranging sometime around just after midnight Sunday night into around just before day break Monday. While this does not seem like a big timing difference, this could play a pretty significant role in our severe weather potential, but more on that later. Along the front, widespread showers and thunderstorms will quickly sweep across the area. Once the front sweeps through a bitter cold surprise will rush into the area as winds turn northwesterly. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 40s behind the front before struggling to reach 50 degrees during the afternoon. Some lingering showers could be possible during the late morning to around noon time and depending on quickly things cool behind the front we would not be shocked if someone see a gee Whiz sleet pellet mainly north of highway 84. Skies should clear during the afternoon. An anomalously strong high pressure will build over the desert southwest during the remainder of the week keeping us in a rather warm but dry pattern for the remainder of the period.

Strong to Severe Storms...A rather tricky severe forecast seems to be shaping up as the potent upper trough moves into the area. Overall the environment will be rather supportive for strong to severe storms sometime after midnight Sunday night through early Monday morning (mainly around and before daybreak). Instability should not be a limiting factor with a rather stout elevated mixed layer for this area and time of the year overspreading the area Sunday night. 1500 to 2000 J/KG of MLCAPE will be possible and when coupled with rather impressive kinematics it is easy to see why storms may be strong to severe. The biggest issue and limiting factor to a more widespread severe threat will be the timing of the best forcing. Currently there are two main camps on timing and overall severity.

Camp 1 is a faster progression of the front and moves the front through prior to the stronger ascent arriving. In this solution, while instability and shear is present, storms struggle to organize especially ahead of the front leading to just widespread warm advection showers with a rather narrow band of convection along the front. Damaging winds would be the primary threat in this mode as that narrow band along the front should be able to mix down a rather stout 850mb jet leading to frequent 40 to 50+ mph gusts with the line. However, this solution would likely limit any storms ahead of the line as they get sheared apart by the intense shear without a more focused area for lift. This is probably the best case scenario.

Camp 2 is a little slower progression of the front which allows for the better forcing to overspread the open warm sector. This scenario would allow for more scattered discrete supercells to develop mainly east of I-65. In the environment being depicted, these supercells would be capable of a couple of tornadoes (a few could be strong) and damaging winds with any storms that do cluster up into bowing segments. Some hail could also be possible if any storms develop along or behind the racing cold front leading to elevated supercells as the forcing continues to overspread. While this scenario is not the most likely scenario at this moment, very little changes would be required for this scenario to become a more likely solution and a much more significant severe threat could materialize rather quickly. We will continue to monitor trends over the next 24 hours and adjust as the picture becomes clearer.

Gusty winds...Behind the front, a rather strong pressure gradient will setup and gusty winds will be possible throughout most of the day on Monday. Wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range will be possible and we will need to monitor the forecast over the next day or so for any need for a wind advisory. As of now probability of exceeding 40 mph gusts is less than 10% and thus we do not have enough confidence in exceeding advisory criteria. Nonetheless, loose outdoor objects can still be thrown around in 30 to 35 mph gusts and vehicles should use caution on area bridges Monday morning.

Beach Hazards...Risk for rip currents quickly increases in the strengthening onshore flow on Sunday with a HIGH risk expected Sunday night through the day on Monday. Surf heights will get to around 3 to 5 feet and if they trend upward a High Surf Advisory may be needed Sunday night into Monday. Surf and rip current conditions should quickly improve in the northerly flow behind the front.

Freezing Temperatures...Behind the front, temperatures will quickly plummet into the 30s to upper 20s Monday night on the back of a stiff northerly wind. Probability of below freezing temperatures on Monday will be 30 to 40 % all the way to the I-10 corridor with nearly 70 to 80% along and north of highway 84. Given our several weeks of warm temperatures and the start of growing season, we will likely need freeze watches and warnings with the next package issuance. Plants will be the main impact with this round of cold; however, wind chills Tuesday morning will be a cold and bitter mid 20s across the area. Would be a good idea to break back out that winter jacket. Hopefully this will be the last time you need that jacket. BB-8

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR flight category continues to persist across the region, with perhaps some MVFR ceilings settling in prior to daybreak Sunday. VFR flight category will return once again by mid morning Sunday. Winds will remain generally out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, becoming 10 to 15 knots gusting to 20 knots during the day Sunday. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Strengthening onshore flow will persist this weekend ahead of the next approaching cold front. Winds abruptly turn northwesterly behind a front by early Monday morning. Small craft conditions are expected by Monday with frequent Gale force gusts possible behind the front. A Small Craft Advisory and a Gale watch have been issued. Strong offshore flow will persist through at least Tuesday before subsiding and turning northeasterly by late week. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 57 79 45 58 / 0 10 100 20 Pensacola 62 76 49 61 / 10 20 90 40 Destin 62 74 51 63 / 20 20 90 50 Evergreen 55 80 42 56 / 0 10 100 30 Waynesboro 54 80 39 52 / 0 10 100 10 Camden 56 79 40 53 / 10 10 100 30 Crestview 56 79 46 61 / 20 20 90 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday evening through Monday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday evening through Monday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655- 670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for GMZ650-655-670-675.