textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 725 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible around 8 pm to midnight. A second round of strong to severe storms will be possible on Wednesday.

- Several chances for beneficial rainfall are expected through Saturday with rainfall totals of around 2 to 4 inches possible. - Strong winds return this weekend to area waters, creating hazardous conditions for small craft.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 725 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Forecast has changed a little bit this evening as our boundary has moved some and a hail threat seems to be developing rather than a damaging wind threat. Current radar depicts a couple elevated supercells extending along the cool side of a stalled boundary from central Mississippi southeast across our northern Alabama counties. Given these storms are on the cool side of this re- enforced boundary, these storms are showing more signs of elevated storms and producing large hail rather than the expected squall line. Storms currently ongoing will likely be the primary threat today and as a result our messaging is changing from the potential for damaging winds to more of a large hail threat through about 10 pm. BB-8

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A rather active forecast is expected over the next couple of days as a series of subtle shortwaves move through broad westerly to northwesterly flow. As usual going to break things up over the next couple of days.

Synopsis...Overall several rounds of rain are expected over the next couple of days with broad westerly to northwesterly flow in place. We will be nicely sandwiched between high pressure to our south and weak broad troughing across the northern US. Several shortwaves are expect to eject across the deep south over the next roughly 72 hours as the subtropical jet overspreads the area. The first chance of rain comes this afternoon and into the evening as a boundary slowly drifts southward with time. Storms have already developed along this boundary but the main show will arrive around 8pm tonight as a line of strong to severe storms will quickly push across areas north of highway 84. Storms should weaken as they approach the coast and the trailing boundary continues its slow southward march to the coast. Most of the coastal areas should remain dry from this round but will likely not remain dry through Wednesday. Depending on where the aforementioned boundary ends up will determine who sees stronger storms on Wednesday as the next wave moves across the area. More than likely there should be enough time to recover as the boundary washes out or drifts a little north throughout the morning. Storms will likely enter the area late afternoon into early evening Wednesday and progress across the area. Strong to severe storms will likely depart the area by midnight on Wednesday night as the upper shortwave kicks east of the area.

Shortwave ridging will likely develop inbetween Thursday and Friday as a upper low over the four corners region slowly digs southeastward into Texas. This ridging should be enough to give us at least a 48 hour period of respite from storms. A few light showers and an isolated storm cannot be ruled out but overall subsidence from the ridge should keep things in check for the most part. The final shot of rain comes on Friday night into Saturday as that upper low moves eastward and ejects over the Tennessee valley. Expect one last round of heavier rain mainly after midnight into early parts of Saturday morning before a surface cold front finally pushes offshore. Behind the front, temperatures and moisture should fall off a cliff as highs drop into the 60s and 70s during the weekend. Dry conditions should prevail through early next week. While none of these rounds of storms will likely pose a flooding rain threat due to the ongoing severe drought conditions, the gradual 2 to 4 inches of rain expected over the next couple of days should make a decent dent in the drought conditions and at hinder drought conditions from worsening over the next week or two.

Strong to severe this afternoon...Storms this evening could get a little spicy as we expect a rather potent squall line to move through areas mainly north of highway 84. Storms have already begun across northern areas this afternoon along a remnant boundary that has stalled from northwest to southeast across Choctaw and Wilcox counties in Alabama. This boundary will be the focus for a much more potent system that has already developed across western Mississippi. Area averaged model soundings and earlier 12z RAOBs from BMX and JAN suggest rather steep mid-level lapse rates in place leading to appreciable instability values around 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCape. Instability decreases rather quickly once you cross the boundary into southeastern Alabama but a rather noticeable corridor for the ongoing storms to move down has setup. This corridor extends from roughly Choctaw county Alabama southeaster through Wilcox into parts of Butler and Crenshaw counties. Given the rather impressive lapse rates and 15 to 20 degree dewpoint depression damaging winds will likely be the primary threat with this cluster of storms. Deep layer shear will be more than sufficient to support strong bowing segments. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially where the ongoing squall intersects with the stationary boundary. Hodographs do have enough curvature along and south of the boundary to support some levels of mesovortex development where surges in the rear inflow jet are strong enough. Some hail could also be possible especially where the outflow of the line is able to undercut the convection and a more elevated mode could be possible. Either way, it is shaping up for a potential quick hitting active night along and north of highway 84. Further south, instability will be weaker and overall upper level forcing will not support widespread storms or even rain. As a result the severe risk quickly drops off as we approach the coast.

Strong to severe Wednesday... Another batch of strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday across most of the area. The biggest question for Wednesday will be where does the boundary set up after tonights storms and how do the shear profiles shake out. Nonetheless, our rather steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain around the area which should be enough to muster up some isolated strong to severe storms during the early evening. Damaging wind gusts and possibly some larger hail could be possible across a good chunk of the area. However, exact locations and a high corridor of severe potential will not be ironed out until likely the morning as the exact placement of the boundary can be realized. BB-8

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR ceilings will settle into the area this evening with IFR to potentially LIFR conditions in the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday. Strong to severe storms will be a concern over the next few hours across parts of south Alabama and south Mississippi with gusty, erratic winds and large hail possible in any stronger storms. Southeasterly winds prevail through the TAF period. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will become temporarily offshore late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front sags south and stalls. Winds shift to easterly, then return to onshore by Friday night ahead of another cold front approaching from the north. This front will cross area waters Saturday, bringing moderate to strong offshore flow follows for the rest of the weekend, with a Small Craft Advisory likely. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 69 87 67 81 / 20 30 60 40 Pensacola 70 83 70 81 / 10 20 50 50 Destin 71 80 70 80 / 10 20 50 50 Evergreen 66 90 64 81 / 40 40 80 40 Waynesboro 67 88 64 77 / 40 50 80 40 Camden 66 87 63 76 / 60 50 80 40 Crestview 67 88 65 84 / 20 30 60 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.