textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 211 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Potential damaging wind impacts still exist east of the Alabama River tonight, excluding Baldwin county, with the strongest winds occurring across the northeast portion of our warning area - High surf conditions and a High Risk of rip currents will persist through today

- Strong northwesterly winds and high seas will be hazardous to small craft through tonight

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for Okaloosa Coastal. The Storm Surge Warning has been cancelled for Escambia Coastal and Santa Rosa Coastal. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of the Alabama River tonight, excluding Baldwin county, with the strongest winds occurring across the northeast portion of our warning area.

Lingering flood waters are likely persisting across the western Florida Panhandle extending into south central Alabama where 6-12" of rain fell over a short period of time during the landfall of Isaias. These should be gradually subsiding though as the heavy rain has come to an end. Conditions continue to gradually improve early this morning as Isaias has transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone as it phases with an upper level trough. As it does so, the center will move slightly northwestward towards the northwest corner of Alabama later this morning before being ejected northeastward towards the Carolinas. Light to moderate rainfall will persist over the next few hours for portions of central Alabama, but will mostly come to an end before sunrise later this morning. Some lingering light rain over western and central Alabama will be possible through the early afternoon. Drier air will continue to wrap in from the west throughout the day with PW values dropping to near the 25th percentile (~0.96") by this evening.

Lingering cloud cover, breezy southwesterly to westerly winds, and cool 850mb temperatures aloft will relegate high temperatures to topping out in the low to upper 70s across the region. Thanks to the efficient cooling of drier air, low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s across southeastern Mississippi and south central Alabama to the upper 50s to mid 60s closer to the bays and the coast. Temperatures return back into the 80s on Sunday, then continue on an upward trend going into the work week as a ridge axis approaches from the west. Mid level high pressure begins to build into the south central CONUS/northwestern Gulf early next week and pairs with surface high pressure developing over the southeastern CONUS and persistent dry air [PW values near the 10th percentile Sunday (~0.73")] leading to an extended period of hot and dry conditions. High temperatures begin to peak back into the low 90s by Monday and persist in the upper 80s/low 90s throughout the work week. Low temperatures will also be on a steady upward trend into the 60s by midweek.

Towards the end of the week, the mid level high will transition overhead. Deterministic model guidance is a bit iffy on if it remains overhead and keeps us warm and dry or if it continues to transition eastward. The latter of those solutions would open the door for a return of rain chances and/or a frontal passage going into next weekend. As always, quite a bit of uncertainty remains this far out, so it's too early to lock in either of these scenarios right now.

Batiste

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

MVFR ceilings will persist through this afternoon along with northwesterly winds of 15-20 knots with frequent gusts to near 30 knots. 2000 foot low-level wind shear around 40-50 knots, mainly over our northern zones will continue through daybreak. /22

MARINE

Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Strong northwesterly winds and high seas will be hazardous to small craft through tonight.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

As Isaias continues to move inland, it's eastward shift in path and resultant QPE is bringing the western Florida panhandle forecast points more into focus. Some minor to moderate flooding is expected in Okaloosa into Covington. Further west, the northeast to northerly winds are bringing drops of 3'-5' in water levels of affected gauges in Santa Rosa Co, and west. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 77 65 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 78 68 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 76 56 86 57 / 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 72 57 87 59 / 30 0 0 0 Camden 72 56 84 58 / 40 0 0 0 Crestview 78 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ054>060.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-204-206.

Storm Surge Warning for FLZ206.

MS...None. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ634>636-655-675.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ630>633-650- 670.