textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought, with little to no rain over the next 7 days, will exacerbate wildfire activity.

- Patchy to areas of fog development, some of which could be dense, is possible over the next few nights.

- A moderate rip current risk is expected for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through midweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Current observations and satellite imagery suggests fog has started to expand across the areas mainly north of I-10. Looking at probabilistic guidance, most of the area is flirting in the 60 to 80% of visibilities less than 1/4 mile after about 4 am through around 9 am. As a result, we have wen't ahead and issued a dense for advisory for our area. This looks to be mainly confined to our area underneath the surface high. Fog should quickly mix out after sunrise.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Light southerly surface winds will occur through the week as a surface ridge remains intact across the southeast states and much of the Gulf. Atmospheric moisture will remain very low despite the southerly winds off the Gulf with PWATs generally ranging from one- half to eight-tenths of an inch. We should see a slight uptick in moisture on Thursday with PWATs nearing one inch as a shortwave moves east across the Tennessee River Valley, but no rain is expected for our area due to a lack of forcing and deep moisture. In fact, the atmosphere above 810mb remains impressively dry due to strong subsidence under the upper ridge that has gripped our region. The next large upper trough will exit the Rockies on Friday and move over the Great Plains to the Mississippi River by week's end. There are no timing differences between the ECMWF and GFS at this time, but the ECMWF does have a higher amplified trough over the eastern CONUS on Sunday compared to the GFS, with the base further south. We could see some isolated to low-end scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front associated with the upper trough passes through our area. Most of this precipitation will likely be confined to areas northwest of I-65 as the line is expected to quickly dissipate.

The light southerly wind flow mentioned earlier persisting all week does maintain some boundary-layer moisture across our area that should result in patchy to areas of late night/early morning fog over the course of the week. Visibilities are expected to lower to between 1 to 3 miles across much of the area late overnight into early morning, with patchy dense fog not being ruled out. Due to low confidence in the specific locations potentially being impacted by areas of dense fog, we will just need to see how thing unfold before needing any Dense Fog Advisories. High temperatures inland will reach the middle 80s today through Thursday and likely reach the upper 80s on Friday and Saturday. These highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal today through Thursday and 7 to 12 degrees above normal on Friday and Saturday. Lows inland will be in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees tonight and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night through the remainder of the week. Coastal lows will range from 60 to 65 degrees tonight and then in the middle 60s through the remainder of the week. Cooler temperatures will occur early next week behind the frontal passage with highs on Sunday in the middle 70s to lower 80s, with lows Sunday night dipping into the upper 40s to middle 50s.

Beach Forecast: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected to continue through Friday. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

LIFR to VLIFR conditions mainly north of I-10 across interior southwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi will gradually improve throughout the morning to VFR. Elsewhere VFR conditions should remain throughout the forecast with a light southerly wind. Another round of LIFR to VLIFR visbys will be possible after midnight tonight as fog re-develops over many of the same areas. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected through the forecast. Winds look to turn northerly and increase behind a cold front on Sunday into Sunday night. BB-8

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area, with drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect through the week. Winds remain light enough and afternoon relative humidity values a bit too moist to hoist a by the criteria Red Flag Watch/Warning at this time for the next few days. Still, playing this by ear. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 79 63 79 65 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 77 65 77 66 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 87 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 86 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 85 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 85 57 86 56 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>264.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201-203- 205.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...None.