textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1156 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

- Dense fog may become a concern this week, especially Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Much above normal temperatures will occur Monday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1156 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Now through Sunday...

An upper level shortwave trough moves over the Southeast Monday into Monday night. With very modest moisture levels to work with (precipitable h20 levels < 0.9"), no rain is expected. A closed low off the Pacific coast of Mexico moves east into mid week, opening as it shifts an upper ridge over the Plains to over the Southeast. This shortwave trough moves over the Southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. A surface high shifts to over the Carolinas before moving over the Caribbean into mid week, resulting in a more organized onshore flow over the northern Gulf coast, and bringing Gulf moisture inland. The tightest pressure gradient is being advertised over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday before shifting east over the western Southeast. Guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising into the 1.1"-1.3" range, with higher levels north of the forecast area along a cold front sagging south over the Southeast. Overrunning over this cold front will provide the best chance for precipitation mid week. Instability is marginal at best, so am not expecting any rumbles to mix in. For the latter half of the week through the weekend, more shortwave energy approaches and moves over the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Moisture levels see an uptick into the weekend, into the 1.3"-1.5" range. Model soundings also show more instability over the weekend, so am expecting more rumbles to mix in. At this time, not enough instability, nor wind shear for stronger storms is indicated. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Saturday night before drying out Sunday.

We are still looking at increasing fog issues tonight into mid week. With warmer, moist flow over cooler waters (water temperatures in the 50s to low 60s) over Mobile Bay and west, and modest low level flow, increasing chances of dense fog is expected. Am anticipating Dense Fog Advisories for land and protected/near shore waters Tuesday into mid week.

Temperatures above seasonal norms are expected through the forecast, with high temperatures in the 70s over most of the area (lower where the fog hangs in longer closer to the coast). Low temperatures in the 50s are expected over most of the area through the week.

Modest onshore flow through the week will keep onshore swell low. Even with an increasing tidal range, a Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected. Onshore flow increases in the coming weekend, with the Rip Risk rising to moderate. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Patchy fog with IFR/MVFR conditions is anticipated to develop late tonight mainly across extreme southeast Mississippi and coastal portions of Alabama, possibly including the far western Florida panhandle. VFR conditions are otherwise anticipated until patchy fog begins to redevelop late Monday evening. Calm or light southwesterly winds overnight become south to southwest 5-10 knots on Monday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1156 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A light southeasterly to southerly flow through tonight will become predominately southwesterly Monday through midweek as a surface ridge sets up across the eastern Gulf. Winds should shift briefly to a light offshore flow late Wednesday night through noon Thursday as a weak front passes through the area, followed by a return to a light onshore flow Thursday afternoon through Friday. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 47 71 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 51 69 53 69 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 51 66 54 66 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 43 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 46 72 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 44 71 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 42 73 47 73 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.