textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Strong to severe storms are possible Sunday. High risk of rip currents through Sunday night.

- Bitter cold temperatures are expected Sunday night and Monday night with overnight temperatures dipping into the teens to lower 20s. Wind chills values both nights could range from as low as the single digits well inland to the teens near the coast. Cold temperatures continue Tuesday night into Saturday night.

- Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from late tonight through early Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Big changes are in store for the area starting tomorrow as an arctic airmass swoops into the area and brings an usually long duration of cold temperatures, and there's a chance for strong to severe storms on Sunday as well. A large positively tilted upper trof extending from the northern Plains to the southwest states absorbs a cut off low near the Baja area while becoming generally oriented over the central CONUS through Sunday morning. The large upper trof takes on a more meridional orientation while slowly progressing into and across the eastern states through early next week. A frontal boundary over the northern Gulf lifts up across the forecast area through tonight with another frontal boundary meanwhile developing from central Louisiana to west central Alabama. The latter frontal boundary pushes across the forecast area on Sunday and ushers in an arctic air mass. Abundant favorable shear will be in place on Sunday, and with MLCAPE values of mainly 500-750 J/kg developing generally along and east of I-65 (200-400 J/kg to the west), convection may become strong to severe mainly in this portion before the front moves through. SPC has gone with a Slight Risk of severe storms for essentially the entire area. Breezy winds develop Sunday with gusts to around 30 mph, and gusts of 20-30 mph are anticipated for Sunday night into Monday. Our Wind Advisory criteria is for wind gusts of at least 40 mph, so will hold off on that at this point and let the next shift reassess.

Lows Sunday night drop to the upper teens/around 20 well inland ranging to the mid 20s near the coast. Monday night will be colder and range from the mid teens well inland to the lower 20s at the coast. An unusually long duration of cold temperatures is expected for the area through Saturday night, with lows Tuesday night through Saturday night mostly in the 20s. I've been here at this office 32 years and can't recall such an extended period of cold weather. Wind chill values late Sunday night into Monday morning drop to 5-15 (higher values near the coast), and similar values are expected for late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Our Extreme Cold Watch/Warning criteria is wind chill values of 10 or lower over interior areas and 15 or lower for the southern portion. An Extreme Cold Weather Watch continues for the entire area for late Sunday night into Monday morning, and may require an upgrade to an Extreme Cold Weather Warning on subsequent shifts. Similarly, an Extreme Cold Weather watch will likely become necessary for late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Our Cold Weather Advisory criteria is wind chill values of 11-20 over interior areas and 16-25 over the southern portion, and it appears that a Cold Weather Advisory will become necessary each night for Tuesday night through Saturday night. A chance for precipitation returns to the area Friday night into Saturday, and it appears that wintry precipitation could develop late Friday night into Saturday morning. We will continue to monitor. Based on beach reports, have upgraded the moderate risk of rip currents for the Alabama beaches to a High Risk for today, with a moderate risk remaining in effect for the northwest Florida beaches. A High Risk of rip currents remains in effect for all beaches from tonight through Sunday night, then a moderate risk is in effect on Monday. A low risk of rip currents is expected from Monday night through Wednesday night. We will need to monitor for the potential need of a High Surf Advisory from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening, when surf heights of 5-6 feet are possible. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Opening up the period with a sheet of low stratus coming in from the west, with a blend of IFR/MVFR cig bases. Radar shows patches of -shra lifting northeast over the central Gulf coast and have added this in for the near term. Little change in the forecast on cigs which are expected to hold into the IFR/MVFR ranges. Maybe a few rumbles of tsra mixed in with increased coverage of shra by this evening spreading from west to east, but will hold off adding as a prevailing group since it's a smaller chance. Vsby mostly MVFR categories. It appears best time for convection will come just after the TAF period with potential pre-frontal line moving through early Sunday afternoon. /10

MARINE

Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly flow develops today then transitions to a strong southerly flow Sunday morning. Winds switch to the northwest late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front moves through. A strong offshore flow Sunday night and Monday diminishes Monday night into Tuesday. Gusts to gale force are possible mainly well offshore Sunday into Monday evening. A Small Craft Advisory comes into effect late tonight into Sunday morning and continues until ending early Tuesday morning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 60 72 24 42 / 80 100 20 0 Pensacola 62 73 27 42 / 50 90 50 0 Destin 61 71 31 45 / 30 90 70 0 Evergreen 56 72 24 41 / 80 100 30 0 Waynesboro 43 68 19 38 / 100 100 10 0 Camden 51 70 19 36 / 90 100 20 0 Crestview 58 73 27 43 / 40 90 60 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to midnight CST Monday night for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight CST Monday night for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 7 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 7 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ655-675.