textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 249 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase especially on Friday, with scattered to numerous showers and storms continuing into early next week. A few storms could become strong with locally strong wind gusts and isolated flooding from intense rainfall rates the primary concerns. A mainly morning waterspout risk will also continue each day across marine areas.

- Highest heat index values of 103 to 107 are expected mainly Sunday and Monday, and a few areas may see values of 108 to 110. Heat related products may be needed for portions of the area this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

An upper ridge encompassing much of the eastern CONUS gradually retreats to mainly over the central states through this weekend as an upper trof well off to the north expands down along the East Coast and adjacent Atlantic waters. A modest upper trof over the eastern Gulf meanwhile slowly progresses into the western Gulf (and potentially merges with the remnants of Edouard) though also leaves an upper level weakness lingering back across the extreme northeastern Gulf area and the northern Florida peninsula. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops on Thursday mainly south of Highway 84, then likely to categorical pops follow for Friday as the modest upper trof progresses across the Gulf along with potential for a modest surface reflection to aid with convective development. The upper trof building along the East Coastal area looks to lead to a weak surface trof moving into the forecast area on Saturday, and have gone with chance to categorical pops, with the highest pops mainly near the coast. The weak surface trof or possibly weak frontal boundary looks to meander over the area on Sunday and Monday before dissipating. Have gone with chance to likely pops for Sunday which continue through Tuesday as while the upper ridge builds back across the eastern states, an upper level weakness and/or series of shortwaves remain over/near the area.

Storms that develop each day will be capable of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Waterspout development remains possible mainly during the morning hours each day over the marine area. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s through Monday, then look to be mainly in the lower 90s for Tuesday. Heat index values of 100-105 are expected Thursday with values of 95-103 for Friday. Heat index values trend to 100-107 for Sunday and Monday then range from 98-104 on Tuesday. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated through Sunday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Isolated showers and storms continue to develop along the coastline and this trend will continue through the afternoon. Brief reductions in visibility and ceilings are expected near any storms. Light easterly to southeasterly flow is expected through the day before winds become calm overnight. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow pattern is expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with offshore winds expected at night and onshore winds during the day. Rain chances will also increase over the coming days, especially on Friday. A few waterspouts will be possible each morning. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 93 74 90 / 0 40 40 90 Pensacola 77 91 77 88 / 10 30 60 80 Destin 78 90 77 88 / 10 30 60 70 Evergreen 73 96 73 93 / 0 10 10 80 Waynesboro 74 97 74 95 / 10 20 20 70 Camden 75 96 75 93 / 0 0 10 70 Crestview 73 93 73 91 / 0 30 50 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.