textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- A High Risk of rip currents continues today into Thursday. Elevated surf heights to around 4 feet are expected through Thursday.

- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf through Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A large upper high pressure system centered over the Tennessee Valley will retrograde westward to become centered over the ARKLATEX region Thursday evening. This upper high will remain nearly stationary Friday through the weekend but diminish in size as an upper low pressure area off the east Florida coast moves westward over the Florida Peninsula on Friday, and then into the eastern Gulf by the weekend. The upper low is expected to come to a crawl somewhere over the Gulf this weekend into early next week, but not exactly sure at this time where this may occur due to model differences. The GFS has the upper low nearly stalling over the north central Gulf on Sunday while the ECMWF and Canadian barely get out of the starting blocks and have it stalling near the Florida Big Bend area on Saturday. The surface ridge across the southern Appalachians into the Southeastern U.S. however will remain largely intact, but we are expecting a weak surface trough reflected at the surface associated with the upper low somewhere across the Gulf over the weekend into early next week. In the meantime, we are still looking at an easterly flow keeping the drier air flowing into our area through at least the remainder of the week with daytime humidity levels remaining low.

Outside of a few spotty showers today across coastal Alabama into southeast Mississippi, the forecast area will remain rain-free through Saturday morning, followed by a daily occurrence of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms returning over the weekend through the remainder of the forecast. Temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR flight category will continue to prevail across the area through tonight. Winds remain out of the east today, going from around 5 knots at daybreak to closer to 10 knots during the afternoon. Winds near the coast will be in the 10 to 15 knot range today, gusting to 20 to 25 knots at times. Winds relax to below 5 knots inland and near 10 knots along the coast after sunset. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 119 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Moderate to strong easterly flow becomes established this morning into Thursday. Winds relax to light to occasionally moderate easterlies to end the week. Seas increase to 3 to 6 feet today, gradually diminishing through late week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the marine waters through Thursday afternoon. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 71 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 91 74 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 91 74 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 92 67 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 94 69 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 93 68 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 91 69 89 67 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.