textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1253 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase today through the weekend. Any storms may produce gusty winds and torrential rainfall, with isolated flooding possible.

- Waterspouts remain possible over the marine waters each morning, primarily from the pre-dawn hours through mid-morning.

- Peak heat index values of around 103-107 are expected Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A tropical easterly wave moving westward across the northern Gulf will be the primary feature influencing our weather today into Saturday. A broad circulation is evident over the far northeastern Gulf early this morning from PWAT imagery, with the wave projected to drift westward into southeast Louisiana by late this afternoon. Increasing southeast flow will bring a very moist tropical air mass into the area, with PWATs rising to around 2.4 inches south of Highway 84 today, which is near the 99th percentile of climatology. Rain chances will increase substantially today as a result, with PoPs around 60-80% for most areas south of Highway 84. Coverage will be greatest over the marine areas during the morning hours before shifting inland during the afternoon. A few waterspouts will be possible over the Gulf during the morning hours. CAM guidance suggests somewhat limited coverage over land this afternoon, but the combination of abundant moisture and forcing from the tropical wave should support a few prominent bands of showers and storms. Any stronger storms could produce brief gusty winds and torrential rainfall, with isolated flooding possible where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Lingering tropical moisture should support another day of scattered to numerous showers and storms (50-70% PoPs) on Saturday, but a bit less coverage compared to today.

Rain chances remain elevated (40-70% PoPs) into early next week as the ridge over the Tennessee Valley shifts west and troughing over the Northeast sends a weak backdoor front into the Southeast states. As our flow shifts to northerly by Sunday, this boundary could reach northeast portions of our area, providing additional forcing for afternoon storms as conditions remain moist and unstable south of the boundary. Trends will be monitored for potential strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon, and perhaps Monday afternoon as well. The front should wash out by Tuesday as the ridge builds back east and flow becomes more easterly to southeasterly, though rain chances will likely not come back down to more typical levels until at least Wednesday.

Highs will range from mid 80s to low 90s today and Saturday, increasing to low to mid 90s for Sunday and Monday along with peak heat indices in the 103-107 range. At the beaches, a Low risk of rip currents continues through Monday. JGC/98

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Main focus overnight will be monitoring a small area of -SHRA drifting west across coastal AL, producing a brief period of light rain but will be quick to depart/dissipate. Beyond that, will monitor additional SCT TSRA across coastal areas early this morning around daybreak through mid/late morning. Introduced Prob30's for coastal TAF sites due to close proximity to this activity, which could briefly impact KJKA or KPNS with brief reductions in VIS/CIGs leading to periodic lower flight categories in this time frame. Beyond that time frame into the afternoon, timed Prob30's for further inland TAF sites including KMOB and KBFM generally 18-23Z for additional SCT TSRA activity later today, with the same brief threats. Otherwise, expect VFR prevailing outside of any SHRA/TSRA activity. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A generally light east to southeast flow pattern will become westerly this weekend. A light southerly flow returns early next week. Rain chances will also increase through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours. A few waterspouts will be possible each morning. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 89 73 90 73 / 70 30 50 10 Pensacola 88 77 89 76 / 60 20 50 20 Destin 87 78 87 78 / 50 20 40 20 Evergreen 92 72 93 70 / 50 10 50 20 Waynesboro 93 72 93 71 / 40 20 50 20 Camden 94 73 93 73 / 30 20 60 20 Crestview 90 73 91 73 / 60 20 70 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.