textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through today, with periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding. Any stronger storms will also be capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

- A High risk of rip currents develops along the Northwest Florida beaches today through Tuesday. A Moderate risk continues for the remainder of area beaches through Friday.

- Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the triple digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Through Thursday...an upper level low that has organized over the Southeast meanders west to over the Southern Plains. An upper ridge organizes over the eastern Conus, though a weak upper trough stretching east over the Tenn River Valley/Southeast remains embedded in the ridge. A soupy airmass over the Southeast (precipitable h20 values in the 2"-2.3") shifts north as a ridge of upper pressure develops over the northern Gulf coast, with the forecast area drying out in the process. Guidance is inconsistent with the northward shift, though the majority drop PoPs to a few developing in the afternoon by Thursday afternoon, if enough instability develops. With a surface low currently over the Southeast shifting west to over the Southern Plains with the shifting upper low, any storms developing Tuesday through Thursday will take a more easterly path.

Looking at temperatures, below seasonal high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s Tuesday rise into the around 90 to low 90s for Thursday. Low temperatures in the around 70 to low 70s inland from the coast rise into the low to mid 70s by Thursday night. Low temperatures along the coast remain in the upper 70s through mid week.

Friday through the weekend...guidance continues to advertise shortwave energy meandering around over the Southeast, eventually digging a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus or the East Coast. Increased moisture moves back with the developing upper trough. With varying placement of the upper trough, where over the Southeast precipitation returns to the region varies. The best compromise is showers and thunderstorms return to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Temperatures rise a bit more, to several degrees above seasonal norms. Heat indices also rise as moisture levels rise over the forecast area, rising to Heat Advisory levels over most of the area Monday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a moderate to strong southwest to westerly flow combined with a large tidal range will create a Moderate to High Rip Risk through Tuesday night, with a higher risk on our Florida beaches. The Rip Risk will ease by the end of the week to a Low as the onshore flow decreases and tidal cycles shrinks. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Generally VFR flight category will prevail across the region through the day tomorrow outside of any showers and storms. Underneath storms, expect reductions in flight category to or below IFR. Winds will remain out of the southwest to west at less than 5 knots through daybreak, increasing to 5 to 10 knots during the day. Locations near the coast will see winds increase to 10 to 15 knots, gusting 15 to 20 knots at times during the day. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A light to at times moderate, generally westerly flow is expected through the weekend. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 91 73 94 / 10 10 0 10 Pensacola 75 92 77 95 / 20 10 0 10 Destin 77 91 79 93 / 30 10 10 10 Evergreen 68 89 70 91 / 30 20 10 10 Waynesboro 70 89 71 92 / 40 20 0 10 Camden 69 86 70 88 / 50 40 10 10 Crestview 70 92 72 94 / 20 10 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.