textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Record or near record highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected this week. With many areas still without power and recovery efforts from Hurricane Isaias ongoing, these temperatures could lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses.

- Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday night and into the weekend, and will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft. Gale conditions may be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

High pressure is expected to maintain its hold over the local area over the next few days. Subsidence from this high, as well as a dry airmass in place (PWATs between 0.7 and 1.0 inch) will give way to sunny skies, very warm highs, and cool lows through the week. Highs throughout the week will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s (possibly even a few mid 90s today and tomorrow over interior counties). Similar to what we saw yesterday, these temperatures may get close to our daily record highs over the coming days. Here are the forecast highs and current records for today, Wednesday, and Thursday for Mobile and Pensacola:

Tuesday (10/13): Mobile 91, Record 92 Pensacola 88, Record 90

Wednesday (10/14): Mobile 89, Record 90 Pensacola 87, Record 89

Thursday (10/15): Mobile 88, Record 89 Pensacola 87, Record 89

The good news is, that heat indices should remain close to the actual temperatures due to afternoon dewpoints generally in the 50s and 60s. That being said, there are still many locations without power due to Hurricane Isaias. These very warm temperatures, along with little to no cloud cover to provide relief from the sun, could lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses. Everyone part of the recovery process is urged to take frequent breaks in the shade and drink plenty of water, especially if engaging in strenuous activity. Lows through Thursday night will generally range from the upper 50s to low 60s inland to the mid 60s along the coast. Additionally, saturated boundary layer conditions at night, calm winds, and clear skies may help to promote patchy fog development each morning this week.

By Friday and into the upcoming weekend, upper troughing is expected to dig into the northeast US. As this occurs, an associated cold front is expected to sweep through the area Friday night. Limited moisture return ahead of the front should keep rain out of the forecast as it pushes through. Behind it, a much cooler and even drier airmass filters into the region from the north for the weekend. Highs are forecast to drop into the 70s across the area, along with lows ranging from the low 50s over our northern counties to the low 60s along the coast. Temperatures should start to moderate by early next week. A Low Risk of Rip Currents will be in place through the week. It should be noted that RCMOS probabilistic data suggests that the rip current risk may increase to a Moderate Risk Saturday afternoon, and eventually a High Risk by Saturday night. /96

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Patchy fog is likely late tonight over portions of southeast Mississippi. There is a lower chance of fog elsewhere, with the most likely TAF sites to experience some fog being MOB and JKA (about 30% chance). Not enough confidence to include in TAFs at this time. Any fog should clear by 1300Z Tuesday. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the period. Light and variable winds are expected through the period, except for a light southerly to southwesterly sea breeze during the afternoon Tuesday. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 1108 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A diurnal flow cycle will occur through Friday with an offshore flow developing late each night into the morning hours then becoming onshore near the coast during the afternoon. Strong northerly winds are forecast for Friday night as a powerful cold front passes through the region, with gusts to gale force possible. A Small Craft Advisory or possibly a Gale Warning may become necessary for Friday night. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 90 65 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 87 67 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 92 59 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 92 60 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 90 59 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 91 60 92 61 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.