textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Thunderstorm chances increase today into the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend for all area beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Saturday Through Monday...a somewhat opening upper low moves from over the Central Plains to the Mid West, taking an associated surface low with. I say somewhat opening, become some guidance is maintaining an upper low over the Midwest. As this system moves east, the base digs south over the Southeast, shifting an upper ridge that is pushing east over the northern Gulf coast back west. A trailing weak cold front moves south over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, then the western half of the Southeast over the weekend into the coming week. Guidance is advertising this front moving southeast across the forecast area late Saturday into Sunday before stalling southeast of the forecast area by Monday. This front is expected to usher in mainly a drier airmass over the forecast area, as apposed to cooler temperatures. Precipitable h20 values drop from the 2.1"-2.3" range today into Saturday drop into the 1.3"- 1.5" range by Monday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today will decrease and shift east Saturday, then southeast Saturday night on with the drop in deep layer moisture. The eastward shift is due to an upper level shortwave moving southeast across the forecast area later today through tonight. Pulse type severe storms remain a possibility this afternoon, shifting south to the coast by Sunday.

Even with the upper ridge moving off, the drier airmass will allow for better daytime heating, keeping high temperatures around seasonal norms over the western half of the forecast area (around 90 to low 90s). The eastern half of the forecast area sees a drop in high temperatures over the weekend, to the upper 80s to near 90, as the better chance of rain shifts east. The drop in moisture levels will allow for better overnight cooling, mainly Sunday on, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s tonight dropping into the low 70s inland from the coast Sunday and Monday, though near coastal and coastal low temperatures remain in the upper 70s. Heat indices drop with the decrease in moisture levels, dropping to below 100 by Monday.

Monday night on...the upper low over the Midwest meanders east into mid week before getting deflected northeast by an upper ridge off the East Coast the end of the week. This low's associated surface low will help to maintain dry northwesterly flow over the forecast area into Wednesday, keeping a dry forecast. The end of the week, as the upper low moves off, the upper high over the Plains builds east over the Southeast, a surface ridge builds over the Southeast, restoring onshore flow to the Southeast and increasing moisture levels. Rain chances see a bit of an increase the end of the week, though with the upper ridge building east over the Southeast, this increase is small. Temperatures see a rise with the increase in influence from the upper ridge, back to above seasonal norms. With moisture levels slow to increase, the rise in heat indices is also slow, rising to the 100-107 range by Friday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, the approaching surface boundary will interact with a surface ridge over the Gulf, creating a tighter pressure gradient along the coast and moderate west to southwest winds. This will increase the Rip Risk to High by late Saturday, with the Florida coast seeing the uptick first. Winds begin to ease Monday, with a Moderate Rip Risk Monday dropping to Low by Tuesday. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

General VFR conditions this afternoon will see drops to low end MVFR in stronger thunderstorms expected to develop. Strong and variable winds are possible with the stronger storms. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again Saturday morning, though the stronger storms are expected in the afternoon. Away from the coast, general westerly winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, will become light, then rise to 5 to 10 knots Saturday morning. South of I-10, a tighter pressure gradient will bring westerly winds around 10 knots dropping to 5 to 10 knots overnight. Around 10 knots return Saturday morning. /16

MARINE

Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 93 74 91 75 / 80 30 30 40 Pensacola 92 78 89 78 / 70 50 40 60 Destin 91 78 88 78 / 60 60 70 70 Evergreen 92 72 89 72 / 70 50 40 50 Waynesboro 94 73 92 73 / 80 30 30 40 Camden 91 73 88 72 / 50 50 40 50 Crestview 94 73 88 74 / 80 50 70 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.