textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 550 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Patchy to areas of fog may develop this morning across the local area. Fog could be dense in spots. Additionally, there is a low chance for sea fog to develop and linger throughout the day on Saturday across portions of coastal Alabama.

- A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for Sunday night, and cold weather products will likely become necessary.

- Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible over our local Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

An upper-level trough is expected to dig southeastward throughout the weekend. As it does so, it will help to push a strong cold front through the area on Sunday. Prior to the passage of the front, high pressure to our east will keep a light onshore flow pattern in place through tonight. This will give way to a rather mild and humid day today, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s. The biggest forecast challenge over the next few hours is the possibility of fog developing. Although the environment is primed for fog to develop prior to sunrise (dew points increased into the mid to upper 50s, light winds, and subsidence from the nearby high), a deck of mid-level clouds is currently streaming across the local region, helping to prevent fog from developing as of 1am. Looking at satellite and obs over south central Mississippi, it seems like the cloud deck is slowly starting to erode, and underneath these cloud breaks are where obs are beginning to report dense fog. We will keep an eye on this throughout the remainder of the overnight hours. As of issuance time, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for coastal counties, as well as Stone and George counties. If clouds continue to erode and fog begins to develop over interior counties, then we will likely need to expand the advisory northward. Although fog should dissipate after sunrise for most areas, HREF probabilities do continue to keep a low potential for sea fog to develop and stick around throughout the day on Saturday over portions of Mobile Bay, the Mississippi sound, and surrounding areas. Additionally, another round of fog may develop later tonight/early Sunday morning prior to the passage of the front, primarily over coastal counties. Outside of fog potential, rain chances will be on the increase this afternoon and especially as we get into tonight due to moisture pooling out ahead of the front and weak forcing. Rain will likely start off as light, warm air advection showers this afternoon, transitioning to a broken line of light to moderate rainfall by the overnight hours. No thunderstorms are expected due to a lack of instability. We dry out by mid-Sunday morning as the cold front sweeps through.

We are still anticipating the coldest air of the season for Sunday night and into Monday as an arctic high pressure system builds in behind the front. With the front likely moving through during the morning hours on Sunday, temperatures are expected to drop throughout the day as strong cold air advection commences. Lows Sunday night are expected to plummet down to the upper teens north of Highway 84 to the mid 20s along the immediate coastline. Factoring in breezy conditions likely continuing through Sunday night due to a tight pressure gradient, apparent temperatures (wind chills) could drop to as low as 9-15 degrees north of I-10, with upper teens potentially reaching the immediate coast. With temperatures and wind chills this low, we will likely reach our Cold Weather Advisory criteria for Sunday night across the entire area, although it should be noted that several areas now are flirting with Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Regardless of which product ultimately gets issued, residents and visitors are urged to make preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this upcoming cold weather.

Very cold temperatures continue through Monday night. Even under sunny skies, highs on Monday will likely only remain in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Lows Monday night will generally be in the 20s areawide. By Tuesday and into the middle of next week, flow aloft becomes more zonal and high pressure shifts off to our east, allowing for temperatures to quickly moderate. In fact, highs by Thursday may warm back into the low 70s for some spots. Low rain chances may also return to the area by late week. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Widely varying visibilities this morning as dense fog settles into areas void of cloud cover. Areas where fog has developed are seeing VLIFR visibility with VFR visibility where there is no fog. Fog will continue to develop in pockets across the area through the pre-dawn hours before lifting by 14z. VFR conditions return through the remainder of the day. Isolated rain showers are possible by late afternoon at the terminals. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Light onshore flow will persist through tonight. We will have to monitor for the potential of sea fog developing this morning and lingering through tonight. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones on Sunday. Strong northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday through Sunday night. Occasional gusts to gale force may be possible over the Gulf waters. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 48 60 23 / 20 50 30 0 Pensacola 72 53 63 28 / 10 40 30 0 Destin 71 55 64 31 / 10 30 30 0 Evergreen 72 43 56 21 / 20 60 20 0 Waynesboro 69 40 51 19 / 30 70 10 0 Camden 68 40 51 19 / 20 70 10 0 Crestview 73 49 60 22 / 10 40 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ078-079.

GM...None.