textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 118 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 - Summertime heat returns over the weekend into early next week. Heat advisories become possible over portions of the area in the coming week.

- Rainshowers and thunderstorms return in the coming week, with strong to marginally severe afternoon thunderstorms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Through Monday...an upper level high centered over Texas shifts east and builds north over the Mississippi River Valley, shifting an upper trough over eastern portions of the Southeast further east. A weak surface boundary that had moved over forecast area washes out, with more organized onshore flow over the forecast area and nearby as a surface ridge builds west over the Gulf. Into the weekend, the eastward advancing upper high will actually cause deep layer moisture levels over the forecast area to drop a bit, with mid/upper level flow becoming more northwesterly, and mid/upper level subsidence increasing. With that, rain chances decrease into the weekend (area wide scattered mainly southeast of I-65 this afternoon), with temperatures increasing a bit. A dry weekend is in store for the current short term. As the upper high shifts north in the coming week, upper subsidence decreases allowing deeper Gulf moisture to move inland and a return of rainshowers and thunderstorms in the coming week, initially southeast of I-65 Monday. For today, instability is expected to be high enough (MLCapes rising into the 1500-2500J/kg range) each day for strong storms. With wind shear weak at best, organized storms are not expected, with most damage coming from outflow driven pulse type storms. With a return of showers and thunderstorms Monday, afternoon pulse severe storms are again possible.

Subsidence from the approaching upper high will keep temperatures above seasonal norms. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s, around 90 along the coast are expected through Monday. Even with the drop in deep layer moisture, enough remains in the boundary layer for daily heat indices to top out in the 100-106 degree range over most of the forecast area though the weekend, with an uptick Monday into the 101 to 107 degree range. Locally higher values are expected each day. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are expected through Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday...The upper ridge continues to build over the Mississippi River/eastern Conus as it shifts north, eventually ending up centered over Ky/WV/Oh by Wednesday. With the shift north, moisture influx squashing subsidence decreases a bit, allowing more Gulf moisture to move inland over the Southeast. Rain chances in the extended increase back to above seasonal norms by mid week. Even with the decrease in the subsidence, temperatures remain a bit above seasonal norms. The increase in moisture levels will allow daytime Heat Indices rise into the 105-110 degree range over areas south of Highway 84 Tuesday and Friday, so will need to keep an eye on the possiblity of Heat Advisories in the coming week, mid week if the rain cooling decreases or is delayed to later in day.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, onshore flow remains modest at best with the shifting upper pattern. Even with a large tidal range, the lack of organized onshore swell will keep the Rip Risk low through the forecast. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR flight category continues to prevail across the region through Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain confined primarily east of I-65 this afternoon through early evening, potentially resulting in temporary reductions to flight category. Winds remain generally out of the southwest near or less than 5 knots through tonight, increasing to 5 to 10 knots late Saturday morning. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 118 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A light southwesterly flow will prevail through Saturday night, then becomes a diurnal pattern Sunday through Tuesday with light onshore flow during the afternoon hours and a light offshore flow each night. A general light easterly flow is expected to develop midweek. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 92 75 94 / 0 10 0 0 Pensacola 79 91 78 93 / 10 10 0 10 Destin 79 90 79 91 / 10 10 0 0 Evergreen 73 93 73 94 / 10 0 0 10 Waynesboro 75 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 74 91 74 91 / 10 10 0 0 Crestview 73 94 74 95 / 10 10 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.