textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- Dry weather expected through the weekend, with rain returning in the coming week.

- Well below normal overnight lows expected Thursday night. Highs and lows trend warmer and well above normal by early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Through Saturday...a mean upper trough over the East Coast moves off, as a stream of upper level shortwaves shift an upper level ridge over the Plains south to over Mexico and the Gulf. A weak cold front moves south across the Southeast late tonight into Thursday morning in response to shortwave energy passing over the Southeast, ushering in a drier airmass over the region. As the upper ridge shifts south, a surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf coast, bringing a more organized onshore flow to the coast and moisture levels beginning to rise. The best onshore flow remains over the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the weekend. The drier airmass will allow for better daytime heating and night time cooling, with a larger diurnal temperature range the result. High temperatures see a bit of a cool down Thursday behind the front (upper 70s to around 80 along and north of Highway 84, low 80s along the coast), but rise back to a bit above seasonal norms Saturday (low to mid 80s). Low temperatures fall into the 50s Thursday night with the better cooling, then slow rise to around 60 to mid 60s Saturday night.

Sunday into the coming week, the surface ridge begins to shift east, as an upper ridge builds north along the east coast. The better moisture that has moved inland over the Lower Mississippi River Valley shifts east as mid level flow shifts to southwesterly over the forecast area and nearby. Rain chances slowly increase in the coming week, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected by Wednesday. Temperature rise to above seasonal norms in the coming week, to the mid 80s to around 90 for Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures in the 60s return to the forecast area sunday night, with an uptick in a few degrees in the coming week.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, general northerly flow transitioning to weak onshore flow will keep any swell on area beaches low into the weekend, with a Low Risk of rip currents expected. Onshore flow on area beaches becomes more organized over the weekend into the coming week, with a Moderate Risk of rip currents returning Tuesday. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the forecast with light northerly winds becoming light and variable overnight. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

No impacts. High pressure moves east of the Mississippi River through Thursday before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast and into the western Atlantic Saturday. A light offshore flow through Thursday turns more onshore by Friday afternoon and continues through the weekend. Seas to trend 2 feet or less through much of the period. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 83 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 83 61 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 83 62 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 81 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 81 54 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 78 50 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 84 52 86 54 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.