textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms will occur through the weekend. Heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flash flooding remains possible.

- HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through tonight for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Heat indices rise to around 100 this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A broad upper trof over the region moves off to the east through Saturday and is absorbed into a larger system which moves across the northeast states and becomes oriented generally just off the East Coast. The upper trof then becomes oriented over much of the interior eastern states by Monday, and a broad upper ridge meanwhile gradually builds near/along the lower/mid Mississippi River valley through Saturday then retreats to over the southern and central Plains. Patchy fog will be possible mainly over interior areas tonight, and possibly Saturday night as well. A weak frontal boundary approaches from the north tonight and slowly moves into interior portions of the forecast area on Saturday. The weak boundary moves to near the coast on Sunday and remains near this position into Monday. Abundant deep layer moisture tends to persist over the area through Sunday with precipitable water values near 2 inches, then drier air begins to work into interior portions of the area from the north on Monday. Have gone with chance to likely pops for Saturday and Sunday, then will have slight chance to chance pops for much of the area on Monday. Soil conditions are saturated or nearly so across much of the area, so while additional QPF amounts will generally be 0.5 inches or less through Sunday, will need to monitor for higher rainfall amounts with slow moving storms which could lead to flooding issues.

The frontal boundary moves offshore Monday night then a light southerly flow resumes on Wednesday and continues into Thursday as a surface ridge becomes oriented along the northern Gulf coast. The eastern states upper trof moves off into the western Atlantic through Thursday with the upper ridge over the Plains building into much of the eastern states. Slight chance to chance pops continue for Tuesday and Wednesday then mainly chance pops follow for Thursday. A High Risk of rip currents remains in effect through tonight, then a moderate risk is expected for Saturday through Sunday. A low risk of rip currents follows for Monday and Tuesday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon and evening except for drops to MVFR within any showers and thunderstorms. The scattered showers and thunderstorms persist through mid to late afternoon. Overnight, VFR prevails and winds stay light and variable with low to medium confidence for periods of MVFR ceilings through the overnight. Probabilities of patchy fog producing MVFR visibilities are low, but MVFR ceilings could prevail for mainly interior counties early Saturday morning. By mid morning VFR will prevail for the area with southwesterly winds at 8-12 knots. /SS

MARINE

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A light to moderate southerly flow becomes southwesterly tonight with a westerly to southwesterly flow expected for Saturday night through Monday. Winds turn northwesterly Monday night as a cold front moves through, then an easterly flow develops on Wednesday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 89 73 91 / 10 40 10 50 Pensacola 75 87 75 89 / 20 30 20 50 Destin 75 85 76 87 / 30 30 20 40 Evergreen 71 88 71 90 / 30 60 20 50 Waynesboro 70 88 71 91 / 40 40 0 50 Camden 70 86 71 89 / 40 70 20 50 Crestview 71 89 71 91 / 20 50 20 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.