textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 644 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 - The heat will continue to build into early and middle parts of the upcoming week with some locations nearing or breaking daily record highs. Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be necessary for much of the area.

- Daily afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorm chances increase in the middle to latter part of the week, but it will still remain hot.

UPDATE

Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No significant changes necessary as the forecast remains on track this morning. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

An upper trof oriented near/along the East Coast remains essentially in place through Tuesday while a large upper ridge remains centered over the central states. A surface ridge over the western Gulf into the ArkLaTex region will promote a primarily west to northwest surface flow over the forecast area from Sunday through Tuesday with a sea breeze developing near the coast each afternoon. Isolated convective development is possible on Sunday and Monday as a series of shortwaves move across the region within a northwest flow aloft, along with the sea breeze potentially leading to some development. A few storms may also occur on Tuesday though have left pops out for now as coverage looks limited. Highs on Sunday will be mostly in the mid 90s then highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s. Tuesday will be even hotter, with highs ranging from the upper 90s to around 100.

Heat index values on Sunday range from 100-105 over interior southwest Alabama and south central Alabama, with values of 105-109 over southeast Mississippi to along the coastal counties. Per coordination with adjacent offices, will hold off on issuance of a Heat Advisory for this latter portion and defer to the next shift. With the progressively hotter temperatures on Monday and Tuesday, an Excessive Heat Watch/Warning will likely become necessary for most of the area. For Wednesday into Saturday, the eastern states upper trof amplifies and retrogrades to encompass the eastern third of the CONUS, and a southerly surface flow becomes established. Rain chances trend higher from Wednesday onward, and while Wednesday will be another hot day with highs ranging from 95-100, temperatures slowly moderate with highs on Saturday expected to be in the lower 90s.

As noted by the previous shifts, record or near record highs are possible from Sunday on through Wednesday. Here is a table of the current records and our forecast values:

Sunday, July 26

Mobile Record High: 98 (1983, 1912) / Forecast: 96 Pensacola Record High: 98 (1990) / Forecast: 96

Monday, July 27

Mobile Record High: 99 (1968, 1875) / Forecast: 98 Pensacola Record High: 98 (1970) / Forecast: 98

Tuesday, July 28

Mobile Record High: 100 (1968) / Forecast: 100 Pensacola Record High: 98 (1993) / Forecast: 99

Wednesday, July 29

Mobile Record High: 100 (1877) / Forecast: 99 Pensacola Record High: 100 (1986) / Forecast: 98

A low risk of rip currents is anticipated on Sunday for the Alabama beaches, while a moderate risk is in effect for the western Florida panhandle beaches. A moderate risk then follows for all beaches from Sunday night through Monday night. For Tuesday, a low risk is anticipated for Alabama beaches with a moderate risk for the western Florida panhandle beaches. For Wednesday, a moderate risk is anticipated for all beach areas. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds turn westerly to southwesterly across the coastal counties through the afternoon hours as winds increase to 10-15 knots. Isolated showers and storms are possible by late this afternoon with brief reductions in visibility and ceilings near any storms. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A diurnal wind pattern is expected through much of the week. Waterspouts are possible each morning near the coastline. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 96 77 98 77 / 20 10 20 10 Pensacola 96 79 98 80 / 20 10 20 10 Destin 94 81 95 81 / 20 10 20 10 Evergreen 94 75 96 73 / 20 10 10 10 Waynesboro 96 76 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 Camden 91 75 95 74 / 20 10 20 10 Crestview 97 76 99 75 / 20 10 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.