textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- A strong system could bring gusty winds and strong to severe storms to the area late tonight into Sunday.

- Strong marine winds are anticipated tonight into Sunday night with the potential for occasional gusts to gale force resulting in hazardous boating conditions.

- High surf heights up to 5 to 8 feet and strong rip currents will impact coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

For the rest of the overnight hours, a surface frontal boundary currently extends just along the coast and up into southeast Mississippi. This boundary is helping to separate dewpoints in the upper 30s to mid 40s to its north from dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s to its south. Similar to last night, this boundary will waffle back and forth between pushing offshore and moving back onshore. This once again presents the challenge of whether or not we will get fog development. Right now probabilistic SREF/HREF data suggests that the best chances of seeing dense fog will be over southeast Mississippi, and possibly into southern Mobile county. Additionally, with light onshore flow becoming established and higher dewpoints overtop cool nearshore waters, it is looking likely that some sea fog may develop over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound over the next few hours. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 7am, and we will watch trends over land closely to see if a Dense Fog Advisory will become necessary.

Our dry pattern quickly begins to change by tonight and into Sunday as a southern stream trough barrels across the southern US. Prior to this trough passing overhead, a diffluent, southwesterly flow pattern develops and spreads across the local area. This will help to advect deep moisture into the area from the Gulf (PWATs increasing to 1.3-1.5 inches). At the surface, an associated low pressure system, currently developing over the central US, will quickly push across the Deep South. As it approaches, it will help to lift the aforementioned stationary boundary northward as a warm front tonight, ushering in dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms appear likely starting tonight after the warm front pushes through and confluence bands set up across the area. As the low approaches the area, a strongly forced line of thunderstorms looks to develop ahead of an associated cold front. This line will likely push through the area quickly during the morning hours on Sunday, although there is still a bit of uncertainty as to how early it will arrive. Overall, latest guidance has trended a bit earlier, with the line possibly reaching our Mississippi counties by around 3-5 AM, southwest Alabama by around 5-7 AM, and the I-65 corridor by around 7-9 AM. The line should exit the area by around 10 AM-12 PM. The primary threat with this line is the potential for damaging winds up to 60 mph due to a strengthening LLJ (850mb jet of around 45-55 knots). It should also be noted that some of the latest CAMs suggest an even stronger rear inflow jet (on the order of 60-70 knots at 850mb) punching into the back of the line. If this is able to descend to the surface, we could very well see winds stronger than 60 mph in localized spots. The big question still is with regards to the thermodynamic environment. Rather poor lapse rates along with the early morning timeframe should help to limit instability overall. That being said, a very narrow warm sector may attempt to push northward just ahead of the line, bringing SBCAPE values up to around 500-1000 J/kg over our coastal counties. On top of this, forecast hodographs are large and curved, yielding 0-1km SRH values of 250-350 m2/s2. If these values were to be realized and the line remains surface based (and doesn't become undercut), a low-end tornado threat may materialize within the line.

After the main line passes, we may see a brief lull in activity for a few hours. By the afternoon, as the upper trough/surface low pushes overhead, moisture is expected to wrap around these features, sparking a second round of showers and storms, mainly for interior areas. Several CAMs are suggesting that instability values will increase through the afternoon thanks to surface heating and steepening lapse rates. Although shear is not as robust as earlier in the day, deep layer shear around 35-40 knots could result in some storm organization. And with some guidance suggesting weak curvature in the hodographs, along with storm relative inflow winds around 20- 25mph, a few mini-spinnies, capable of producing a brief tornado or two, are possible. Small hail also cannot be ruled out in the deepest storms.

Outside of storms, winds will be rather gusty due to the low creating a tight pressure gradient across the area and the low-level jet overhead. Wind starting as early as 3 AM could gust as high as 25-35 mph, highest along the coast. Winds should begin to weaken by the mid afternoon (around 3-4 PM). At this time, we should remain below Wind Advisory criteria, but we will continue to monitor trends closely. These strong winds will also lead to dangerous beach conditions. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from 3 AM though 9 PM Sunday for surf heights increasing to 5-8 feet. A High Risk of Rip Currents is also in effect starting tonight and continuing through Monday before returning back to a Low Risk by Tuesday.

For the remainder of the period, we remain warm and dry. Temperatures will increase through the week, with highs potentially reaching the low 80s by midweek. With these warm and humid conditions, dense fog may become an issue each night next week. /96

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon before decreasing late this evening and overnight as rain moves in from the west. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds can be expected along the line during the early morning hours. /13

MARINE

Issued at 106 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light onshore flow this morning will increase to moderate by the afternoon and strong by Saturday night into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this evening through Sunday night. Occasional gusts to near gale force are possible Sunday, along with seas up to 7-10 feet. A moderate to strong offshore flow becomes established Sunday night in the wake of a cold front, gradually waning to a light to moderate offshore flow by Monday afternoon. Light to moderate onshore flow returns for Tuesday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 59 73 55 / 0 90 90 20 Pensacola 67 59 70 57 / 0 80 100 30 Destin 66 58 70 57 / 0 70 100 30 Evergreen 74 54 73 52 / 0 80 100 40 Waynesboro 74 58 70 52 / 10 90 80 20 Camden 72 55 70 53 / 0 80 100 40 Crestview 73 53 73 53 / 0 70 100 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Sunday for GMZ630>636-650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ670-675.