textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1143 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Fog remains possible through Saturday morning, primarily nearer the coast in association with any marine fog that develops.

- The next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday and Saturday ahead of our next cold front. A couple showers or storms could be strong, mainly Saturday. - Strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from Saturday night into Monday night with the potential for occasional gusts to gale force.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1055 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

An upper trof gradually advances across the western and central states through Saturday, then continues across the eastern states later in the weekend into early next week. An associated surface low brings a strong cold front through the forecast area Saturday afternoon into the evening hours and ushers much cooler air into the region. Ahead of the front, a persistent southerly flow brings the potential for late night into early morning fog potential along with mild temperatures. A series of shortwaves moving across the region ahead of the front will support chance to good chance pops tonight into Friday, which transition to likely to categorical pops on Saturday as the front progresses into the area. Rain chances taper off from west to east Saturday night as the front continues through the remainder of the area, with dry conditions following for Sunday. MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg develop over the southern and central portions of the area on Friday, but shear values will be low and expect just embedded thunderstorm development. Shear values may improve somewhat Friday night into Saturday with similar MLCAPE values early Friday evening and ahead of the front on Saturday. This could be sufficient to support some stronger storms, and SPC has included much of the area on Saturday in a marginal risk of severe. Will continue to monitor.

Dry conditions follow for Monday into Wednesday, then chance pops return for Thursday as a series of shortwaves move across the region and a weak front potentially moves into the area. Mild temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s along with lows in the 60s. Much cooler air flows into the area in the wake of the cold front on Saturday, with highs on Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s and highs on Monday remaining in the 50s. Lows Sunday night will be in the 30s, and lows Monday night range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Temperatures then recover to lows in the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday night with highs in the lower 70s by Thursday. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday, with a low risk following for Monday. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

IFR ceilings are beginning to lift to MVFR to VFR at issuance time. Expect these conditions to continue through the afternoon hours. Ceilings are expected to lower again to IFR this evening and potentially LIFR by the overnight hours. Some patchy fog may attempt to develop along the coast late tonight. Any fog that does develop will dissipate a little after sunrise on Friday and ceilings should slowly start to lift by late Friday morning. Southwesterly winds will generally prevail through the period, although winds over interior counties may briefly turn northerly Friday morning as a front enters the area. Occasional gusts to around 20-25 knots are possible this afternoon. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1055 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A light to moderate onshore flow will continue through Saturday with potential nighttime and early morning fog development. A strong cold front moves through the area Saturday night, with a strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front and persisting until beginning to diminish Monday night. Gusts to gale force are possible late Saturday night into Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary from Saturday night into Monday before tapering off Monday night. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 80 65 80 / 30 40 40 60 Pensacola 67 78 66 77 / 30 50 50 60 Destin 63 73 64 74 / 40 50 60 70 Evergreen 65 79 64 80 / 40 50 50 70 Waynesboro 63 76 64 78 / 50 40 50 70 Camden 63 76 63 76 / 50 50 60 80 Crestview 65 81 64 81 / 40 50 50 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ630>632.