textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Patchy dense fog will develop across much of the region overnight into early Tuesday morning, reducing visibilities to one quarter mile or less in some locations. A Dense Fog Advisory may become necessary.

- We will continue to monitor the potential for fog as the week progresses, especially as southerly winds bring increased moisture levels mid to late week.

- The next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms will be at the end of the week into next weekend as the next cold front approaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Temperatures have dropped lower than forecast late this evening across the western half of the forecast area. In addition, high resolution guidance is showing increased probabilities for at least patchy dense fog to develop across the area overnight into early Tuesday morning. We have reflected these trends in the latest forecast. A Dense Fog Advisory may become necessary if trends indicate the fog will become more widespread in nature.

As we look toward the week ahead, upper level ridging will build across the area early to mid week, with southwesterly upper level flow becoming established the by the end of the week. This results in temperatures rising to well above normal levels with highs climbing into the low 80s by Thursday and Friday over much of the area.

A cold front is forecast to approach the southeast states by Friday, but will slow down due it becoming parallel with the upper level southwest flow. It will take a more significant and amplified trough developing over the central and eastern states this weekend to finally push the front through the area. There are still uncertainties in the exact timing of the front. However, the general theme will be gradually increasing rain chances Thursday through Saturday, with Saturday likely to be the day with the greatest rain chances. It's too early to say if there will be any concern for strong to severe storms with the frontal passage as that will hinge on the strength and evolution of the shortwave trough this weekend.

Fog will continue to be a concern as we go through the week, especially mid to late week as dewpoints climb into the mid to upper 60s. In this pattern, marine fog may become more likely with bay and sound temperatures currently in the low to mid 60s. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Light ground fog has begun to develop as the earlier cloud deck has cleared this evening. With clear skies and light winds confidence in IFR to LIFR visbys developing over the next couple of hours is increasing and some patchy instances of VLIFR visbys will be possible mainly inland as fog slowly develops. The best chance for VLIFR to LIFR visbys and ceilings will be just before daybreak into the early morning hours before steadily mixing back to MVFR and eventually VFR tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light and variable becoming light out of the east-southeast. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Surface high pressure will move east into the western Atlantic through Wednesday, resulting in the development of a light to occasionally moderate onshore flow. This onshore flow will persist through Friday. A cold front will push through the region next weekend with a moderate to strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front.

It's possible that marine fog may become an issue by late in the week as higher dewpoints move across the relatively cooler nearshore waters. 34/JFB

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.