textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 547 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 - Cold temperatures are expected for the next 7 days. Temperatures fall to below freezing across much of the area with Thursday night being the coldest night in the 7 day stretch.

- Gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front tonight into Thursday across the entire area. Gale conditions are expected across the offshore Gulf waters with small craft conditions for the rest of the Gulf waters and bays tonight through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Rain showers continue to slide into the area early this morning well ahead of our next cold front. This trend of rain (just cold rain) will continue through about mid-morning before the first batch of rain exits the area. Another quick-hitting round of showers associated with the cold front will be possible late this afternoon persisting into the early evening hours, predominantly across our inland counties. We are not anticipating heavy rain with either round of scattered showers today, it will just be a chilly and showery kind of day.

In the wake of the cold front, the area quickly dries out as we roll into this evening and temperatures plunge into the mid to upper 20s inland while hovering near the freezing mark along the coastline by sunrise on Thursday. Winds will increase on the backside of the front as the pressure gradient increases, so expect gusty conditions overnight and into the early part of the day on Thursday. The coldest night will likely be Thursday night into Friday morning as the surface high slides overhead and winds relax. Temperatures will likely fall into the 20s everywhere north of the beaches.

Expect yet another cold front to swing across the region over the weekend with little fanfare as moisture return remains meager ahead of the front. We may be able to squeeze out some rain showers, but the guidance isn't overly enthusiastic about the moisture return ahead of the front. Yes, we see that some deterministic models are showing wintry precipitation - it's there one run and gone the next then back again then gone again. Keep in mind that while wintry precipitation has been popping up every so often in a few deterministic model runs, we look at a lot more than one deterministic model to put together a forecast. Could we see a few flurries? Potentially, but the probability of that is fairly low right now in the current pattern.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through for our Alabama beaches in the current pattern. However, the rip current probabilistic data shows a bump to a MODERATE risk across the Florida panhandle beaches this evening and another bump to MODERATE in the Friday night through early Saturday morning timeframe. 07/mb

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in light showers moving across the area this morning. Light southwesterly wind will persist overnight before increasing and turning westerly this afternoon and turning northwesterly by sunset. /13

MARINE

Issued at 104 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Offshore flow increases tonight through Thursday behind a cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin offshore late this afternoon before spreading into the nearshore waters and bays this evening and continue through Thursday. Gale conditions are briefly expected in the offshore waters late tonight after midnight and will persist until early Thursday morning. Offshore flow gradually decreases Thursday afternoon through the overnight, becoming a light onshore flow on Friday. A light to moderate westerly flow Friday night will shift northwesterly on Saturday behind the next cold front. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 61 31 49 28 / 20 10 0 0 Pensacola 61 33 48 32 / 30 20 0 0 Destin 61 34 49 33 / 40 20 0 0 Evergreen 59 27 46 22 / 40 20 0 0 Waynesboro 58 26 46 25 / 40 10 0 0 Camden 55 26 42 23 / 50 10 0 0 Crestview 60 29 48 21 / 40 20 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CST Thursday for GMZ670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ670- 675.

Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM CST Thursday for GMZ670-675.