textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Several chances for beneficial rainfall are expected through Saturday with additional rainfall totals of around 2 inches possible. - Strong winds return this weekend to area waters, creating hazardous conditions for small craft.

UPDATE

Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Made minor adjustments to rain chances this morning based on current radar coverage. Otherwise the forecast is on track. /13

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A cut off upper low off the Baja coast gradually breaks down and is absorbed into a large and broad upper trof pattern over the interior states, with this pattern eventually evolving into a meridionally oriented upper trof over the eastern states by Saturday. An outflow flow boundary from a weakening MCS is currently located just south of the coast, and a cold front approaching from the north is expected to move through the forecast area overnight. An area of rain currently located mainly over southeastern Mississippi into extreme southwest Alabama is anticipated to diminish while spreading further eastward into the area overnight. Additional convection is expected to develop late tonight over interior areas then gradually become oriented over the southern portion of the area through Thursday afternoon. An interesting aspect to the forecast is that a surface low is anticipated to form roughly over the northwestern Gulf on Friday then track along the north central Gulf Friday night before ejecting off to the east. This system is expected to bring beneficial rainfall to the area mainly from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, with rainfall amounts during this period ranging from 1.5-2.0 inches, and locally higher amounts will be possible. Depending on the eventual trajectory of the surface low, there is the potential that a warm front could lift into the coastal counties which would portend potential strong storms. Will continue to monitor. The rain will be ending from west to east on Saturday, and dry conditions follow for Saturday night through Tuesday. Chance pops return to the forecast for Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the Plains. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Thursday through Friday, then a moderate risk follows for Saturday. A low risk of rip currents returns for Sunday. /29

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions expected through the region with scattered light to moderate showers. Gusty winds and IFR or lower conditions are possible with the stronger storms. /13

MARINE

Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

An offshore flow will develop today as a cold front moves through. Winds shift predominately easterly for Friday as an inverted surface trough approaches from the west, followed by a moderate to strong offshore flow for the coming weekend as the trough moves eastward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 80 59 70 54 / 70 50 70 100 Pensacola 80 63 72 57 / 70 60 60 90 Destin 79 64 75 60 / 70 60 60 90 Evergreen 77 54 69 51 / 60 40 60 100 Waynesboro 72 54 65 50 / 60 40 80 100 Camden 73 53 66 50 / 50 30 70 100 Crestview 83 58 74 55 / 60 50 60 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.