textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Strong to severe storms are possible Sunday ahead of a strong cold front moving across the area. High risk of rip currents Saturday night through Sunday night.

- Bitter cold temperatures are expected Sunday night and Monday night with overnight temperatures dipping into the teens to lower 20s. Wind chills values both nights could range from as low as the single digits well inland to the teens near the coast. Cold temperatures continue Tuesday night into Thursday night.

- Strong northerly winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft from Sunday through Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Now through Friday...

Through Saturday, a series of weak shortwaves move over the Southeast, bringing increasing isentropic upglide rain showers north of a stalled cold front situated along the northern Gulf coast. As the forecast moves into Saturday night, an opening upper low moving east along the US/Mexico border develops a surface low over the northwestern Gulf, when then moves northeast over the western Southeast (and over the western half of the forecast area), with a warm front moving inland over and east of I-65 later Saturday night through Sunday morning. SBCapes rise to around 1000J/kg, but when combined with good upper divergence, Bulk Wind Shear in the 40-60kt range, decent 50kt 850mb jet, and 0-1km helicities of 150-250 m^2/s^2, strong to severe storms are possible. Looking at the model soundings, the instability is tall, but skinny, limiting strong updrafts, and the wind profile is more linear, leading to small bowing segments and damaging winds the primary threat. Enough directional shear is present for spinners, though. Mid level lapse rates are meh for large hail, but with the good upper dynamics, can not rule out large hail where stronger updrafts occur. Timing for any rowdy storms is expected to be late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon before a strong post system cold front moves across the forecast area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This cold air and strong post frontal winds will drop temperatures quickly, bottoming them out in the upper teens over northwestern-most portions of the forecast area to upper 20s over the western Florida panhandle, and winds chills bottoming out in the single digits northwest of I-65 to upper teens southeast. The cold air has resulted in an Extreme Cold Watch for Sunday night, and likely Monday night. There still is a very small possibility of freezing/frozen precipitation as the precipitation ends Sunday night, but any accumulations are expected to be minimal at most.

From Tuesday on, surface high pressure passes north of the forecast area, easing the strong northerly flow through mid week. Guidance has been inconsistent in advertising a shift in the low level flow to onshore the latter half of the week. Current guidance is advertising northerly flow limiting moisture availability as more shortwave energy moves over the Southeast Thursday into the coming weekend. Some relief for the region comes as temperatures moderate through the week, but remain below seasonal norms.

Weak onshore flow the rest of the week will keep the Rip Risk Low into the weekend. As the onshore flow strengthens into Sunday, the Rip Risk rises to High. The offshore flow Monday and more variable flow mid week will drop the Rip Risk back to Low in the coming week. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

IFR to MVFR CIGs expected through the forecast, Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots will shift to east to southeast around 10 knots Saturday afternoon as rain begins to move east over the forecast area. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow tonight will increase to strong this weekend. A Small Craft advisory has been issued for strong onshore, then offshore flow this weekend into the coming week. Winds ease in the coming week, though a shift back to onshore by mid week has been inconsistently advertised in the guidance. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 59 72 23 41 / 80 100 30 0 Pensacola 62 72 28 42 / 60 90 50 0 Destin 60 72 32 45 / 40 90 70 0 Evergreen 55 70 24 39 / 80 100 40 0 Waynesboro 43 64 19 38 / 100 100 20 0 Camden 50 68 20 36 / 90 100 30 0 Crestview 57 73 28 42 / 60 90 60 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight CST Monday night for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 7 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.