textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms are expected to develop each day starting Tuesday and lasting through Saturday. Storms on Tuesday and Wednesday could potentially become strong to severe.

- Well above average temperatures will continue through Wednesday, gradually cooling by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Upper ridging has built into the area for today, leading to a dry, yet very warm day. Highs today will top out in the mid to upper 80s, with a few interior spots reaching the low 90s. For tonight, lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60s. We could see some patchy fog develop late tonight thanks to subsidence, light surface winds, and saturated boundary-layer conditions, however, not really anticipating much in the way of dense fog due to stronger winds above the surface.

Our active pattern returns on Tuesday and especially into Wednesday as a longwave trough over the northern US slowly progresses eastward. Starting with Tuesday, upper-level flow splits over central MS/AL, placing our local area underneath a stronger northwesterly flow pattern (areas along the Tennessee River Valley will be underneath southwesterly flow). This will give way to large- scale diffluence across a vast area of the Deep South. Embedded shortwaves passing within this flow will help to spark thunderstorm development (potentially several rounds of storms) Tuesday afternoon across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and into central MS/AL. A few of these storms could develop and pass across our interior counties (primarily north of Highway 84) during the afternoon hours, and with plenty of instability, 30-40kts of deep layer shear, and long, straight-lined hodographs, storms could organize into multicellular clusters/loosely organized supercells that would be capable of producing strong winds and hail. By the evening and overnight hours, our attention shifts to the northwest as several CAMs suggest that storms over the Lower Mississippi River Valley may cluster together and organize into an MCS. This MCS is expected to quickly push southeastward, and potentially reach our northwestern counties (i.e. Choctaw and Wayne counties) by the late evening. At this point, with the best forcing remaining to our north, and with the loss of daytime heating, the MCS should start to weaken as it approaches and pushes into our northwestern counties, keeping the best severe potential to our north. That being said, CAMs tend to struggle with MCS's pushing through northwesterly flow for our area, as we have seen with this past weekend's storms. Therefore, it is possible that the MCS remains at strong to severe strength as it enters our northwestern counties before weakening as it passes through the area and approaches the coast. Damaging winds to around 60 mph would be the primary threat as it enters the area late Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the best diffluence aloft shifts southward and parks over the Gulf Coast. Another embedded shortwave also appears to push within this flow aloft and pass overhead by the late afternoon/evening timeframe. Additionally, at the surface, a cold front will be pushing southeastward, passing through the area Wednesday night. With plenty of moisture still in place, along with strong forcing, it is likely that scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop during the mid to late afternoon hours to our west and push through the area through the evening. The biggest question with regards to timing, coverage, and the overall strength of these storms has to do with the MCS from the night before. If the MCS Tuesday night is stronger and pushes through more of the area, then it may take longer for the environment to recover. This could delay convective initiation to later in the afternoon or the evening hours, potentially leading to less coverage and weaker storms. On the other hand, a weaker MCS that dissipates soon after entering our area probably won't affect the environment all that much, and once afternoon heating commences, convection should quickly fire and strengthen. If this scenario were to occur, storms, similar to Tuesday, may organize into multicellular clusters/loosely organized supercells that would be capable of producing strong winds and hail. Right now we have a Marginal Risk of severe weather in place across the entire local area for Wednesday, but if the Tuesday system is weaker for our area, would not be surprised to see the severe risk increase for Wednesday. The front will push offshore late Wednesday night.

Guidance begins to diverge as we get to the Friday-Saturday timeframe, leading to a low confidence extended forecast. What we do know at this point is that a southern stream shortwave will quickly push eastward across the southern US. In response, a surface low will attempt to develop over the northwestern Gulf and push eastward underneath the parent trough aloft, passing near our local area by late Friday into Saturday morning. Guidance agrees that ample moisture will be in place, and with plenty of forcing expected from a diffluent flow pattern aloft and the nearby developing low at the surface, rain chances will be rather high during this period. The big question that remains at this time is where the low will ultimately track. Starting with deterministic guidance, the latest runs from the Euro suggest that the developing low will remain over the northern Gulf. If this solution pans out, our area will remain in the northern cool sector, ultimately leading to an overrunning rain event. The second solution comes from the latest runs of the GFS, which suggest that a stronger low tracks inland across central MS/AL. If this solution pans out, this low will help to bring the frontal boundary, which previously passed through the area Wednesday night, back to the north as a warm front, placing portions of our area in a warmer, more unstable environment. This could lead to another possible round of severe weather. The good news is that when looking at the scenarios via ensemble cluster analysis, the larger majority of ensembles (~65-70%) suggest that the warm front should remain offshore, leading to the overrunning event being the more likely scenario at this time. That being said, the clusters (~30-35% of the available ensembles) which suggest that the warm front does make it onshore have a decent probability of dew points exceeding 68 degrees over portions of our area (suggesting that if this scenario were to happen, the warm sector would be quite unstable and primed for severe weather). We will continue to monitor trends over the coming days but at this point, I am leaning towards the cooler, overrunning scenario.

A Low Risk of rip currents will continue through the week, possibly increasing to a Moderate Risk by the weekend. /96

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A ridge of surface high pressure to the east maintains a mostly south to southeasterly component in wind at 10 to 15 kts through the afternoon, diminishing to less than 10kts in the evening. Satellite trends beginning to indicate the development of fair weather cu at 3 to 5 kft and will add in the near term forecast. Potential exists for the vsby to lower to MVFR categories late in the night primarily after 28.09Z at the KMOB terminal. /10

MARINE

Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through Wednesday. Winds briefly become offshore by Thursday as a cold front moves through, then gradually transition to a predominately easterly flow for Friday. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 85 68 86 / 0 10 20 20 Pensacola 68 80 69 82 / 0 10 20 20 Destin 68 79 69 80 / 0 10 10 10 Evergreen 62 87 64 89 / 0 30 30 30 Waynesboro 65 88 66 86 / 20 50 40 40 Camden 63 86 65 86 / 20 50 50 50 Crestview 62 86 63 87 / 0 10 20 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.