textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Thunderstorm chances increase today through the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend for all area beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

An active pattern continues into this weekend as the upper ridge continues to shift westward and an upper trough digs across the eastern states. A stronger shortwave moving through this trough will send a weak front southward into the area this weekend, likely stalling near or north of the area. The cooler mid levels temps combined with approaching boundary and daytime heating will lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Showers and storms will be most numerous during the afternoon and early evening hours. With the increased rain chances, temps will be in the upper 80s and low 90s in most areas. Heat index values will generally be below advisory levels, however some areas could reach around 108 before storms develop. As we head into next week the upper trough lifts out and we gradually get upper ridging to work its way back into the area. Afternoon highs warm into the lower to middle 90s again and rain chances diminish to more isolated to scattered coverage each day next week.

A few storms could become strong or briefly severe each day with damaging winds the main threat in addition to frequent lightning. A very moist atmosphere combined with slow moving storms will also create locally heavy rain which could cause some localized flash flooding to develop. A moderate risk of rip currents continues today, becoming high this weekend into early next week. /13

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A few patches of fog will be possible overnight mainly over interior areas, then MVFR conditions are anticipated with scattered to numerous showers and storms that develop across the area mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Calm or light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5-10 knots on Friday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Small Craft should exercise caution this weekend, and forecast trends will be monitored for the potential need of Small Craft Advisories at some point this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 75 92 75 / 70 40 30 60 Pensacola 91 78 90 78 / 80 40 60 60 Destin 90 79 88 79 / 70 60 70 70 Evergreen 91 72 89 73 / 60 50 60 50 Waynesboro 92 74 92 73 / 70 30 30 30 Camden 90 73 87 72 / 50 50 50 50 Crestview 92 74 89 74 / 80 50 70 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.