textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected tonight into Thursday for local area beaches.

- Rain chances are expected to increase late Friday into Saturday, with a few strong storms possible west of the Alabama River.

UPDATE

Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

With surf heights remaining on the higher side with continued onshore flow, have extended the High Rip Risk through Friday. Also, there has been some shifting of the Slight Risk of severe weather for Friday/Friday night, with adjustment to the Marginal on the east side. This marginal now includes counties west of the Alabama River. Good instability (SBCapes rising into the 2000-2500J/kg range) in the afternoon along with modest shear (Bulk Wind Shear around 30kts), will allow a few strong to severe storms to form, with wind damage the primary threat. Also, with good mid level lapse rates (7.0C-8.5C), large hail is also possible. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

If you blinked you missed the rare occurrence of actual rain happening earlier today. Fear not, however, as additional rain chances are on the horizon. We have a couple drier days to get past first Thursday into Friday, with rain chances starting to tic up over the western half of the area late Friday. In the meantime, the only high impact we have right now is strong, life-threatening rip currents tonight into Thursday. A High Risk for rip currents remains in place for Alabama and northwest Florida Panhandle beaches through Thursday afternoon.

I mentioned better rain chances are on the horizon so here's some good news. A series of shortwaves transit or skirt north of the region this weekend into early next week allowing for multiple opportunities for showers and storms. Saturday looks like the best day for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Best odds of seeing rain will be over interior portions of the area near and north of Highway 84 Saturday, but even areas down towards the coast should see scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Uncertainty increases as we head into early next week on how the upper pattern evolves. Forcing to generate showers and storms remains questionable Monday as ensemble guidance continues to try and keep a bulk of the better upper dynamics north of the area. Despite this, there will be an adequate CAPE and shear environment in place such that if a storm can develop, it could become strong to severe. For now, it remains something to watch as we move forward in time. A Moderate risk for rip currents Thursday night into Friday becomes a low risk Saturday into Sunday. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast area at 6am/11z, with a few local drops in VISBYs to IFR levels due to fog. This fog will quickly mix out after sunrise, with southerly winds rising to around 10 knots and gusty by afternoon. Winds will ease after sunset, dropping to around 5 knots or less. /16

MARINE

Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly flow prevails through Friday. Flow shifts to southerly to southwesterly for the weekend as a surface ridge over the Southeast shifts south to the northern Gulf coast. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 81 62 82 65 / 0 0 30 30 Pensacola 78 66 78 68 / 0 0 20 30 Destin 77 66 78 68 / 0 0 20 20 Evergreen 84 56 85 60 / 10 0 30 30 Waynesboro 84 59 83 63 / 0 0 40 50 Camden 83 57 83 62 / 0 0 40 50 Crestview 84 57 84 61 / 10 0 20 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.