textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Moderate to strong northeast winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over most of the marine area Friday night into Monday morning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas from Saturday through Sunday night.

- Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.

UPDATE

Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Based on the latest rip current guidance, now anticipate that the High Risk of rip currents will begin on Saturday rather than Friday night. Also, surface dewpoints have dropped off a bit more quickly than anticipated for this afternoon which has resulted in a bit lower relative humidity values of mostly 25-30%. Surface wind speeds are light, and am not anticipating the need for any fire weather products. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A large upper ridge over the central CONUS slowly progresses into much of the eastern states through this weekend as a large eastern states upper trof mostly moves well off into the western Atlantic though leaves a weaker upper trof lingering just off the East Coast. The upper ridge dampens out Monday into Tuesday as an upper trof advances across the western half of the CONUS, possibly into the Plains. A surface ridge persists across much of the eastern states, and strengthens over the southeastern states Friday night into Saturday. Meanwhile on Friday night and Saturday, a surface low is anticipated to develop near/east of the Bahamas and track slowly northward, with the pressure gradient tightening over the forecast area between this system and the strengthening surface ridge. This results in moderate to strong winds developing over the marine area Friday night into Saturday night along with the rip current risk increasing to High and continuing through at least Sunday night, with a bit cooler air potentially flowing into the area as well. The pressure gradient looks to relax Monday into Tuesday which could lead to a decreasing rip current risk. Our dry weather continues on into next Wednesday as deep layer moisture remains limited. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, then highs on Saturday through Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures then trend a bit warmer going into next Wednesday by which time highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows each night will mostly range from the mid/upper 40s well inland to the lower or mid 50s at the coast. /29

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions continue through Thursday morning. Northeasterly winds mostly around 5 knots this afternoon become calm or light and variable this evening, then return to around 5 knots Thursday morning. /29

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Light winds Wednesday and Thursday will give way to east northeasterly light to moderate winds Friday. By Saturday morning east northeasterly winds will become strong before approaching gale force with local gusts potentially surpassing gale force well offshore Saturday through Monday afternoon. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for much of the coastal waters beginning Friday and continuing into the beginning of next week. After which moderate to strong easterly winds look to prevail for the remainder of the period.

KL/31

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 49 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 54 80 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 57 79 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 44 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 47 81 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 46 77 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 45 81 45 79 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.