textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1159 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

- Patchy to areas of fog may develop Friday night across the local area. Fog could be dense in spots. Additionally, there is a low chance for sea fog to develop and linger throughout the day on Saturday across portions of coastal Alabama.

- A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the area on Sunday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected for Sunday night, and cold weather products will likely become necessary.

- Strong marine winds are expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in the wake of a cold front. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible over our local Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Our brief but bitter pattern change is lurking around the corner but first we have some fog to deal with. Broad northwesterly flow has slowly become more westerly and eventually southwesterly ahead of our next system this weekend. Two upper troughs, the first over Canada dropping into the Great Lakes and a very weak southern stream trough over the northern Gulf, will move through the broader longwave pattern Saturday into Sunday. To start, very subtle moisture advection has begun as winds have pom more southerly in advance of the southern impulse. This has led to a gradual rise in temperatures and dewpoints now sneaking into the mid 50s. As this system approaches, dewpoints will likely top out around the low 60s mainly south of highway 84 which should allow for some fog development. Confidence in how dense and if fog will be able to settle with slightly elevated near surface winds around 15 knots is currently keeping us from issuing any fog products. However, NBM/HREF/SREF probabilities are rather high for some reduced visibilities and thus we continued the mention of patchy to areas of fog later tonight.

By Saturday night into Sunday, both upper troughs will begin to move into the area which will lead to a rather drastic change as cold arctic air plunges into the deep south Sunday into Sunday night. Some scattered showers will be possible along the approaching cold front late Saturday night into early Sunday morning before the gates of the arctic open. Looking at NBM probabilities and we continue to support temperatures being the coldest of the year. Probabilities of air temperatures less than 20 degrees are floating around 50-70 percent mainly north of highway 84 and probabilities of less than 25 degrees above 80% almost to the immediate coastline. Given the current trends getting colder and colder with each run and the fact that guidance tends to struggle with these shallow arctic airmasses, it is probably a pretty safe bet we will see a round of cold weather products Sunday night into Monday. On top of the cold temperatures we will likely see gusty winds behind the front leading to wind chills in the teens all the way to the coast. Both the air temperatures and wind chills would warrant cold weather advisories at the least and we will have to continue to monitor for the potential for some extreme cold products for wind chills.

The good news is this cooldown is only temporary and things will quickly flip next week as the pattern flattens out and upper ridging begins to build over the eastern US. Expect a gradual warmup through next week as temperatures will rebound into the 70s by Thursday. Our next rain chances look to come well after next week. BB-8

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

VFR conditions prevail through midnight. Patchy to areas of fog will develop late tonight across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, mainly impacting the MOB TAF site with IFR conditions. LIFR to VLIFR conditions are possible further inland (northwest of the I-65 corridor) in the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. /22

MARINE

Issued at 1159 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Light onshore flow will persist through Saturday. We will have to monitor for the potential of sea fog developing Friday night and lingering through Saturday, mainly across Mobile Bay and the Mississippi sound. A strong cold front will push across the marine zones on Sunday as strong northerly to northeasterly winds develop through Sunday night. Occasional gusts to gale force may be possible over the Gulf waters and a Gale Watch may be needed as early as tonight. Winds subside on Monday, becoming a light easterly wind for Tuesday. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 54 71 51 57 / 10 30 40 20 Pensacola 57 71 56 61 / 10 20 40 20 Destin 58 70 57 63 / 10 20 30 20 Evergreen 49 71 47 55 / 10 30 60 20 Waynesboro 50 68 44 50 / 10 30 70 10 Camden 47 66 43 49 / 10 20 60 10 Crestview 50 72 52 59 / 10 20 40 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.