textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potentially resulting in localized flash flooding remain possible through Monday.

- Patchy fog may develop later this morning across areas mainly north of I-10. Some localized dense fog might develop.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Our rather soggy week will be coming to a close as our final upper shortwave will move through the region by Monday before our next pattern flip occurs. Broad west-southwesterly flow remains in place over the area through the day today with very subtle shortwave ridging over the area tonight. The biggest concern overnight will be the potential for patchy fog as guidance has honed in on our interior areas mainly north of I-10. Currently mid-level clouds are progressing across the area but once these move east of our area and some breaks occur then patchy fog should be able to develop. Some locations may be dense but as of now confidence in dense fog is too low to warrant any products. Sunday should be mostly dry as shortwave ridging moves off to the east; however, a few storms cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon as low level advection begin to increase ahead of the next systems and destabilization occurs during the afternoon. OVerall it'll just be a warm and muggy day tomorrow as highs climb into the 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s.

The main system arrives on Monday as a shortwave trough ejects across the deep south. Rather stout upper diffluence will quickly move across the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms will likely form along a boundary draped from west to east across the area. Looking at forecast soundings and there is certainly the potential for a few stronger storms with hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. Low level shear is rather paltry but strong deep layer shear around 40 knots could support some organized clusters and potentially a transient supercell or two during the afternoon. Deep moist profiles generally tend to not be supportive of large hail; however, weak storm relative inflows, decent instability within the hail growth zone could support severe hail in any transient supercellular structures that do develop. Damaging winds could also be possible if any bowing segments/clusters do develop and are able to mix down stronger mid- level winds. On-top of the low end potential for some strong to severe storms, heavy rainfall will be possible. PWATS will be in the 1.8 to 2 inch range and with plenty of instability, some heavier rainfall rates could be possible leading to localized flooding concerns. Luckily even with all the rain we have had we are still in a rather significant drought which is likely keeping us from more significant flooding concerns.

By Monday night the upper shortwave will quickly move east ushering in a significantly drier pattern by midweek. Upper ridging will strengthen over the central US leading to dry and slightly cooler northwesterly flow to develop through the remainder of the week. This upper ridge will flatten out and shift eastward with time leading to a gradual warmup through the weekend as highs top out in the 90s by Saturday and Sunday. Rain will be hard to come by for the foreseeable future and our first real taste of the upcoming summer will be upon us by early next week. BB-8

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

MVFR ceilings are currently in place for much of the local area at issuance time. Over the next couple hours, this cloud deck should erode, allowing for fog/low stratus to develop, possibly bringing IFR to LIFR conditions to much of the area. Any fog/stratus that does manage to develop will dissipate a little after sunrise. VFR conditions are expected to become prevalent for the afternoon and evening hours. Light and variable winds tonight will become a light southeasterly to southerly flow by the afternoon. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A light onshore flow returns tonight through Sunday night. Winds turn westerly then northerly through the day on Monday behind a cold front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front on Monday afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong. Winds briefly increase Monday night before A light easterly to northeasterly flow develops on Tuesday and turns westerly by mid-week. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 84 67 82 61 / 40 40 70 10 Pensacola 81 70 81 64 / 30 50 80 30 Destin 81 70 80 65 / 40 40 70 30 Evergreen 84 63 81 56 / 60 50 60 10 Waynesboro 83 64 80 54 / 40 50 50 0 Camden 82 63 79 54 / 40 50 50 0 Crestview 85 65 83 59 / 50 40 80 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.