textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- A round of strong to severe storms will impact the area this afternoon and evening.

- Several chances for beneficial rainfall are expected through Saturday with rainfall totals of around 2 to 4 inches possible. - Strong winds return this weekend to area waters, creating hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Synopsis...Latest surface analysis is showing a cold front extending from Kentucky to central Texas. This front is being pushed slowly southeastward between a surface low pressure area centered across the eastern Ohio River Valley and a surface high pressure area centered across Kansas. This cold front will be our main focus for convection this afternoon and evening as it advances through the northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, eventually reaching roughly to the I-65 corridor by early Thursday morning. This front will eventually move south of the coast Thursday evening and then stalls Friday morning as an inverted surface trough forms across the western Gulf coastline. This stalled boundary should momentarily lift back northward as a warm front to near our coast Friday afternoon and evening as the inverted trough becomes quite elongated by the Saturday morning, extending from the southwest Gulf to the Florida Panhandle. The departures of the surface trough to our east will reinforce the northerly wind flow on Saturday as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest. Looking aloft...a southern jet stream merges with a northern jet stream over the southern Rockies and extends eastward across much of the country. There are signatures of upper difluence and impulses between this jet and a broad upper ridging to our south that will remain through late tonight. This jet streak will strengthen Thursday into Friday but lift northward further from our area.

Severe thunderstorms...In coordination with The Storm Prediction Center, we have issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181 that remains on effect until 9 PM this evening. Ahead of an eventual expanding cluster of convection with possible discrete thunderstorm activity south of the advancing cold front, ample warm air advection is ongoing with upper 60 to lower 70 dewpoints already in place. The latest meso-analysis is showing surface based instability values around 2,500 to 3,000j/kg and mixed layer instability values around 1,500 to 2,000j/kg. Effective Bulk Shear is currently around 50 knots, and the maximum 2-6km AGL Lapse Rates are quite high ranging from 7.5 to 8.0C/km. Under these conditions we are anticipating damaging gusts and an isolated risk for large hail as the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Effective Storm Relative Helicity values are currently nominal at around 50m2/s2, so no significant tornadic activity is expected but we will be monitoring the radar for any enhanced rotation. Localized nuisance flooding is also possible across our inland areas.

Currently the anticipated timing for discrete storms is now, especially across south central Alabama. The leading edge of the cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently entering our southeastern Mississippi and northwestern Alabama counties, and will impact these areas into early evening. The remaining areas under the watch will see impacts from late this afternoon until 9 PM this evening. Non-severe convection is expected for the remainder of the night, but showers and storms remain into as the aforementioned cold front passes through. A resurgence of numerous to widespread showers and storms will occur Friday afternoon into Saturday as additional upper impulses traverse the region, and this is when we have a potential of more significant rainfall to help ease the drought conditions over the forecast area.

A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area behind the reinforced northerly flow with high temperatures over the weekend topping out in the middle 60s to lower 70s, then warming into the lower to middle 80s by Tuesday into midweek. Overnight lows follow a similar cadence, generally in the middle to upper 40s over the interior and lower 50s nearer the coast Saturday and Sunday nights. Overnight lows warm into the middle 50s to lower 60s by midweek.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents through Friday night is expected to briefly become MODERATE Saturday and Saturday night before settling back to a LOW risk on Sunday. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Predominantly MVFR or greater conditions are anticipated through the afternoon outside of a few thunderstorms over northern portions of the area. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage from northwest to southeast by late afternoon and early evening, especially north of i-10. A few of these storms may be strong to severe. Periods of showers and perhaps a few lingering thunderstorms should continue through at least daybreak Thursday as a weak cold front clears the area. A few drops to IFR ceilings are possible through Thursday morning. Outside of thunderstorms, southerly winds are expected through the afternoon at 10-15 knots, weakening after dark and transitioning to a light northerly flow Thursday morning. JGC/22

MARINE

Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow through tonigh will gradually transition to an offshore flow Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front moves through. Winds shift predominately easterly for Friday and an inverted surface trough approaches from the west, followed by a moderate to strong offshore flow for the coming weekend as the trough moves eastward. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 79 59 71 / 70 40 40 70 Pensacola 69 81 64 74 / 60 50 30 50 Destin 68 80 64 76 / 50 50 30 40 Evergreen 61 77 54 73 / 90 50 30 50 Waynesboro 61 74 54 64 / 80 50 40 80 Camden 60 73 53 65 / 90 40 30 60 Crestview 64 82 58 76 / 70 50 30 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.