textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to possible flash flooding will occur over the next several days.

- HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through at least Thursday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

UPDATE

Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Primary changes to the forecast this morning is to remove the current flash flood watch for southeast Mississippi for today. HREF PMM and LPMM guidance over the past couple iterations has been rather anemic with 6 hour precipitation totals, generally on the order of an isolated 1 to 2 inches. Current flash flood guidance across southeast Mississippi generally depicts 2 to 3 inch per hour rates required for any issues, and 4 to 5 inch per hour rates over 3 hours. Without any appreciable forcing, height rises throughout the day, and the ongoing MCS to the west expected to weaken or completely dissipate on approach to the area, it stands to reason that we will have a much tamer day in terms of heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential. Of course, if any storms can remain stationary over an urban area or train over the same locations then isolated instances of flash flooding can't be ruled out, but the expected areal coverage and precipitation intensity makes it hard to justify maintaining a watch for our southeast Mississippi counties. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A southerly to southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue through the remainder of the week as our local area remains in between an upper ridge over the western Atlantic and upper troughing over the western/central US. As we have seen for several days now, multiple embedded shortwaves will quickly pass near/over the area over the next few days. With forcing from the shortwaves moving overhead, along with deep tropical moisture advecting in from the Gulf (PWATs generally ranging around 1.8-2.1 inches) and strong destabilization occurring each day due to diurnal heating, shower and thunderstorm development is expected each day, mainly during the late morning and afternoon hours. Best coverage looks to be over interior counties as the sea breeze boundary quickly pushes inland. With limited shear, the potential for organized severe weather remains very low. That being said, as we typically see with pulse-type storms, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail. The main concern over the next few days will be heavy rainfall. The slow-moving nature of these storms, as well as the deep moisture in place, will lead to storms being efficient rainfall producers (rates potentially as high as 2-3 in/hr). If storms manage to train over the same areas, especially over areas which have seen abundant rainfall over the past week, then we could see localized instances of flash flooding.

The upper-level pattern begins to change this weekend and into early next week as upper troughing digs across the northeast US and into the western Atlantic, helping to shunt the upper ridge farther into the Atlantic. This will allow for winds aloft to transition to a more westerly to northwesterly flow pattern. Embedded shortwaves will continue to pass overhead and deep moisture will remain in place, keeping showers and storms in the forecast through early next week. One thing we always have to keep an eye on in northwesterly flow patterns this time of year is if storms that develop upstream are able to organize into MCS's and push down towards our local area. Still too far out for any specifics, but just something to watch over the coming days.

Highs will generally top out in the mid to upper 80s throughout the period. Lows will be mild and humid, with temperatures only dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s inland and the low to mid 70s closer to the coast. Additionally, with saturated boundary-layer conditions and light winds, cannot rule out the development of patchy fog during the late night/early morning hours each day, particularly over inland counties. A High Risk of rip currents will continue through Thursday, potentially lowering to a Moderate Risk for Friday and into the weekend. /96

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

MVFR to IFR flight category continues to prevail across the region here at daybreak. Isolated showers are shifting onshore across the Florida Panhandle and will intermittently affect that area over the next few hours. Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop across the rest of the area this afternoon, and underneath any of these ceilings and visibility may be reduced by several flight categories at times. Outside of storms, MVFR to VFR flight category should prevail today. Winds remain out of the south to southeast at around 5 to 10 knots, gusting to near 15 knots nearer the coast. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist for the remainder of the week through the upcoming weekend. Seas will generally be around 3 feet through Thursday and around 2 feet for the remainder of the forecast. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 85 71 86 70 / 60 40 70 30 Pensacola 84 73 85 73 / 50 30 50 20 Destin 83 74 85 73 / 60 40 40 20 Evergreen 85 69 88 69 / 70 30 60 30 Waynesboro 85 70 85 69 / 80 40 70 40 Camden 85 68 86 68 / 70 20 60 30 Crestview 86 70 88 69 / 70 30 70 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.