textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 - Tropical Storm Watch in effect for coastal zones and waters. Storm Surge Watch in effect for coastal Alabama. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible near the coast through mid week.

- High risk of rip currents begins this evening for western Florida Panhandle and Alabama beaches. High Surf Warning in effect starting Tuesday afternoon into early evening.

- Heat Advisory in effect for southeast Mississippi until 7 pm Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression Two which is currently located about 120 miles south of Panama City, Florida, is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to move across the far offshore waters of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle Tuesday into Tuesday night before exiting to the west. Please see the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Tropical Depression Two. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for coastal portions of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for coastal Alabama for storm surge heights potentially reaching 2-4 feet during periods of high tide Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Storm surge heights of 1-3 feet will be possible along coastal portions of the western Florida panhandle. Have issued a High Surf Advisory for surf heights building to around 10 feet across beach areas. The High Surf Advisory begins at 1 pm Tuesday for the western Florida panhandle and at 7 pm for Alabama and continues until 6 am Thursday, by which time surf heights should have sufficiently subsided. A High Risk of rip currents comes in effect this evening and continues until dropping to a moderate risk on Friday.

There is a marginal potential for some localized flooding concerns mainly over the coastal areas through much of the week. Will have slight chance to chance pops for the southern portion of the area mainly this evening then for Tuesday have gone with likely to categorical pops east of I-65 tapering to low pops across interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. As the tropical system continues off to the west on Wednesday, will have chance to likely pops roughly along and east of I-65 with slight chance pops elsewhere. For Thursday on into Sunday, have gone with chance to likely pops each day as abundant deep layer moisture looks to be in place in an otherwise summertime pattern. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for southeast Mississippi until 7 pm Tuesday for heat index values up to 110. Elsewhere, heat index values of 100-107 are anticipated. It's possible that the Heat Advisory may need to be extended into portions of southwest Alabama on Tuesday as heat index values reach criteria of 108 in a few spots, but this looks limited in scope at this point. /29

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period outside of storms. Northeasterly winds will increase through the period with the approach of the tropical system. These northeasterly winds will be sustained at 10-15 knots today with gusts up to 25-30 knots along the coast and even higher offshore. These will begin to turn more southeasterly as the system moves west parallel to the coast this evening. Scattered to numerous showers and storms move through the area this afternoon, mainly focused along and south of the I-65 corridor. These storms are accompanied by gusty winds and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within the strongest storms. There is some guidance suggesting MVFR cigs this evening however confidence is low at this time. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm and move across the far offshore waters of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle Tuesday into Tuesday night before exiting to the west. Tropical storm force winds will impact the Gulf waters Tuesday through Wednesday. Waves with this system peak at 10 to 15 feet Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening before subsiding. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 94 76 93 77 / 40 40 60 20 Pensacola 90 78 91 79 / 80 60 60 50 Destin 89 80 90 81 / 90 70 60 50 Evergreen 91 74 91 74 / 60 30 50 20 Waynesboro 96 76 96 76 / 20 20 20 10 Camden 91 75 91 75 / 20 10 20 20 Crestview 90 75 91 76 / 90 60 70 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Tropical Storm Watch for ALZ263>266.

Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ263>266.

High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

Storm Surge Watch for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Warning from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ202-204-206.

High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ630>636-650-655.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>633-650-670-675.