textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents through Saturday night for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Surf builds to 5-7 feet through Friday. High surf combined with high tide will lead to overwash and minor inundation issues along the coast on Thursday and Friday.

- Small craft conditions persist through Saturday. - Increasing rain chances this weekend with heavy rainfall leading to more flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A brief reprieve from the heat and rain is on tap through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds over the Mississippi Valley. A backdoor surface front has pushed offshore and is currently sitting in the central Gulf. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in from the east across the area through tonight and into the day on Thursday as dewpoints drop into the low 50s and even some 40s. Rain will likely be confined offshore along the stalled surface boundary. The biggest concern this week will be the increased surf along the coast. This will be the result of a tightening pressure gradient across our Gulf Waters as a weak area of lower pressures develops along the stalled boundary. Life threatening rip currents and large surf will be possible through the next 48 hours. Some coastal overwash will also be possible during high tide, especially on Friday as winds may become more southeasterly with time. If winds turn more southeasterly prior to high tide on Friday, some minor coastal flooding could be possible across northern Mobile bay resulting in some overwash along the Causeway. Guidance is not sold on this potential; however, upper end ensemble guidance does support some potential impacts.

By the end of the week and into the weekend, the upper ridge will slowly move east as the surface trough/low pressure will lift northward across Louisiana and into the Mid-South. Along with it will come a slug of moisture as PWATS once again climb into the 2 to 2.25 inch range mainly west of I-65 by Saturday into Sunday. As this system lifts north, increased rain chances will follow and the potential for some training storms and high PWATs could result in some locally heavy rainfall throughout the weekend. While there will likely not be a defined focus for heavy rainfall, if any storm decides to linger around long enough over an area that has already seen plenty of rainfall the last month, it could result in some localized flash flooding. We will have to keep an eye on things as we move into the weekend. After this weekend, things will get a little more complex as the system lifts north and overall ridging tries to setup over the Mississippi Valley. Depending on the placement of the ridge will determine if we are stuck in the soup of summer or a more mild pattern. Nonetheless, we will likely see a continued period of isolated to scattered storms in a more summer like pattern into early next week. BB-8

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR flight category prevails for most locations today outside of stubborn MVFR ceilings over southeast Mississippi into far southwest Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. These should continue to gradually lift/erode from east to west this afternoon, with the expectation for a majority of the area returning to VFR flight category by late afternoon. Winds remain generally out of the east at around 5 to 10 knots, 10 to 15 knots nearer the coast. Wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots are possible through Thursday along the immediate coast. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Easterly flow prevails through Thursday. Small craft conditions develop early this morning in the strengthening easterly flow and persist through Friday across the bays, waterways, and Gulf waters. Onshore flow develops Friday through early next week. Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 64 83 65 85 / 10 0 10 30 Pensacola 67 84 69 85 / 10 0 0 20 Destin 68 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 20 Evergreen 57 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 60 84 60 86 / 10 0 0 10 Camden 57 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 10 Crestview 59 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ630>634-655- 675.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ635-636.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for GMZ650- 670.