textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 522 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Patchy dense fog will develop across much of the region overnight into early Tuesday morning, reducing visibilities to one quarter mile or less in some locations. A Dense Fog Advisory may become necessary.

- We will continue to monitor the potential for fog as the week progresses, especially as southerly winds bring increased moisture levels mid to late week.

- The next significant chance of showers and thunderstorms will be at the end of the week into next weekend as the next cold front approaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Temperatures have dropped lower than forecast late this evening across the western half of the forecast area. In addition, high resolution guidance is showing increased probabilities for at least patchy dense fog to develop across the area overnight into early Tuesday morning. We have reflected these trends in the latest forecast. A Dense Fog Advisory may become necessary if trends indicate the fog will become more widespread in nature.

As we look toward the week ahead, upper level ridging will build across the area early to mid week, with southwesterly upper level flow becoming established the by the end of the week. This results in temperatures rising to well above normal levels with highs climbing into the low 80s by Thursday and Friday over much of the area.

A cold front is forecast to approach the southeast states by Friday, but will slow down due it becoming parallel with the upper level southwest flow. It will take a more significant and amplified trough developing over the central and eastern states this weekend to finally push the front through the area. There are still uncertainties in the exact timing of the front. However, the general theme will be gradually increasing rain chances Thursday through Saturday, with Saturday likely to be the day with the greatest rain chances. It's too early to say if there will be any concern for strong to severe storms with the frontal passage as that will hinge on the strength and evolution of the shortwave trough this weekend.

Fog will continue to be a concern as we go through the week, especially mid to late week as dewpoints climb into the mid to upper 60s. In this pattern, marine fog may become more likely with bay and sound temperatures currently in the low to mid 60s. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Conditions across the forecast area varied from IFR/LIFR with fog south of I-10 and from stratus over southeast Mississippi. Conditions are expected to improve after sunrise, though am expecting conditions to be slower to rise over Mississippi due to favorable conditions for the stratus to be maintained. Fog is expected to develop tonight, with areas west of the Tombigbee River expected to see lower conditions lasting into Wednesday morning. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Surface high pressure will move east into the western Atlantic through Wednesday, resulting in the development of a light to occasionally moderate onshore flow. This onshore flow will persist through Friday. A cold front will push through the region next weekend with a moderate to strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front.

It's possible that marine fog may become an issue by late in the week as higher dewpoints move across the relatively cooler nearshore waters. 34/JFB

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 72 57 77 61 / 0 0 10 20 Pensacola 68 59 73 63 / 0 10 20 20 Destin 67 59 71 62 / 0 0 20 20 Evergreen 73 53 78 59 / 0 0 10 10 Waynesboro 71 55 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 72 54 76 59 / 0 0 10 0 Crestview 73 52 76 59 / 0 0 20 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.