textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday, with periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding. Any stronger storms will also be capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

- A High risk of rip currents develops along the Northwest Florida beaches today through Tuesday. A Moderate risk continues for the remainder of area beaches through Friday.

- Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the triple digits.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The forecast remains on track this morning. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to gradually develop near the coast over the next few hours, becoming numerous and spreading inland into the afternoon. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected in any storms today. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Through Wednesday...an upper level low organizes over the Southeast, with a surface low organizing over central Ms/Al. With a very moist airmass over the region (precipitable h20 values above 2") scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with the higher PoPs north of Highway 84. With a focusing surface boundary organizing on the west side of the surface low (somewhere over central Ms/Al), along with southwesterly mid/upper levels flow, the risk of flooding issues increases. Instability is modest at best (MLCapes topping out around 1000J/kg on average), along with an 850mb jet over the forecast area and coast (around 30kts), bringing a limited possibility of strong to severe storms. By Wednesday, the center of upper low has shifted west of the Southeast. Guidance is advertising a drier airmass moving north over the northern Gulf coast. Rain chances decrease over the forecast area with the decrease in moisture, though highest PoPs still remain over the northern half of the forecast area. The usual afternoon inland/ night time along the coast and over the Gulf pattern returns for the convection.

Looking at temperatures, below seasonal high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s Monday and Tuesday rise into the upper 80s to around 90 for Wednesday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast, are expected through Wednesday night. Heat indices rise to around 100 for Wednesday.

Thursday through the weekend...guidance continues to advertise shortwave energy meandering around over the Southeast. Drier air continues to push over the Southeast for Thursday and Friday, dropping the PoPs a bit more. Over the weekend, the region sees an uptick in moisture levels as an upper trough organizes over the region. PoPs increase in response. Some guidance is advertising temperatures rising to above seasonal norms, whilst other keep temperatures a bit below. Going with a compromise around seasonal, when combined with the increase in moisture levels, heat indices over the weekend rise into the 100-107 range over most of the forecast area, with some localities seeing higher values.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a moderate to strong southwest to westerly flow combined with a large tidal range will create a Moderate to High Rip Risk, with a higher risk on our Florida beaches. The Rip Risk will ease by the end of the week to a Low as the onshore flow decreases and tidal cycles shrinks. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Storms are possible mid morning into the afternoon along/off the coast and inland this afternoon into the evening. These storms are accompanied by erratic winds with gusts up to 30 knots and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR within the strongest storms. Light generally westerly winds will increase through the morning to 8-12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots for areas along the coast. There is low confidence in MVFR cigs developing overnight, especially for inland areas of south central Alabama. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A coastal jet organizing along the coast Monday into Monday night will bring a moderate to strong southwesterly flow mainly to open Gulf waters later today into this evening. The upper system causing this will move off to the west, bring a light to at times moderate flow, with a daytime onshore, night time offshore regime returning to area waters. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 85 71 88 72 / 80 20 60 30 Pensacola 86 74 89 76 / 80 40 50 40 Destin 87 76 89 78 / 80 50 50 50 Evergreen 84 69 86 69 / 80 40 70 30 Waynesboro 85 70 86 70 / 70 50 70 30 Camden 83 70 83 70 / 70 60 90 30 Crestview 85 70 88 70 / 80 40 60 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.