textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

- A high risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches for Thursday through Friday.

- Some strong storms may be possible mainly over the coastal counties on Thursday.

- Moderate to strong marine winds may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters late Thursday night into Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Now through Wednesday...

A weak upper trough passes over the Southeast later tonight into Thursday night, with a stronger upper trough passing over the region Thursday night through Friday. A cold front moves over and south of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday in response. Isentropic upglide induced showers increase over the forecast area tonight, peaking Thursday. Instability still remains an issue, remaining modest at best over the forecast area. Enough is present for rumbles to mix in (MLCapes topping out around 600J/kg). Good upper divergence passes over the forecast area, with Bulk Shear values 40-55kts. 0-1km helicity values of 150-200m^2/s^2 are also present. With instability, much less any surface based instability, limited, am expecting the possiblity of any strong to severe storms to be very low and confined to areas well south of I-10.

Zonal upper flow settles over the Southeast over the weekend, as an upper ridge begins to build over the Southwestern Conus, which then shifts east over the Plains in the coming week. A strong upper shortwave passes well north of the Southeast Sunday, with a cold front crossing over the forecast area Sunday, stalling along the coast Sunday night due to the upper dynamics quickly passing. The shift in winds will be short, with onshore flow returning early in the coming week.

Temperatures for most the forecast are expected to be at or above seasonal norms, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s most days. The exception in Friday, with post frontal temperatures expected to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s. Low temperatures start out below seasonal norms, with around 40 to near 50 tonight dropping into the mid to upper 30s north of I-10/upper 30s to around 40 south to the coast. For the rest of the forecast, low temperatures rebound into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A moderate to strong onshore flow will bring increasing onshore swell Wednesday night into the weekend, with a Moderate to at times high Rip Current risk Thursday through Friday. A High Rip Risk has been issued for Thursday through Friday night. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions will slowly deteriorate throughout the morning as IFR to LIFR ceilings move in. Scattered to numerous showers and an isolated thunderstorm will move across the coastal areas by mid morning resulting in temporary reductions in visibilities. Winds will remain out of the south for most of the day. Visibilities may drop to VLIFR after sunset across the immediate coastline south of I-10 as sea fog rolls in ahead of the approaching cold front. Isolated scattered showers and storms will accompany the frontal passage before midnight as winds quickly turn out of the northwest. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1204 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Moderate to strong onshore flow shifts to offshore Thursday night into Friday behind a passing cold front. Onshore flow returns Saturday into Saturday night, but shifts to easterly by Monday, remaining a moderate to at times strong into mid week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 70 45 60 39 / 90 30 0 0 Pensacola 69 50 60 44 / 90 40 0 0 Destin 69 52 63 45 / 100 40 0 0 Evergreen 68 43 60 33 / 100 40 0 0 Waynesboro 69 39 57 34 / 80 40 0 0 Camden 65 39 55 33 / 90 50 0 0 Crestview 68 46 62 33 / 90 40 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.