textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

- A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through Friday evening, mainly over interior portions of southwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi.

- A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for most of the marine area Sunday afternoon through Monday night with the potential for occasional gusts to gale force over the open Gulf waters.

- The first freeze of the season is becoming increasingly probable for most of the forecast area excluding the immediate coast Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall into the mid 20's to lower 30's.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Going to be a roller coaster of a weekend with the potential for a couple strong to severe storms tomorrow before our first polar plunge early next week. With so much going on in the forecast we went ahead and broke it up by impacts over the next few days.

Synopsis.... Looking at a the big picture we will have a few moving pieces through the period. The next 48 hours will be marked by a series of subtle fast moving shortwaves. The first one will arrive Friday afternoon into the evening. Steady warm advection and westerly flow aloft will allow for increased moisture across the area as dewpoints have already risen into the low 60s across the area today. Forcing will be rather removed from the area; however, there should just be enough upper diffluence and warm advection to support isolated to scattered showers and storms. This will be especially true for the marine boundary that will be lifting slowly north across the area by late afternoon. Storms will likely be focused along the highway 84 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening when instability is maximized and forcing moves across the area.

After a brief period of shortwave ridging late Saturday night into Sunday, the next wave will move through late Sunday bringing another round of showers and storms mainly south and east of I-65 as the surface cold front sweeps across the area. Convective coverage will likely remain isolated early on and increase during the evening hours as forcing increases and the main upper trough digs into the upper Great Lakes.

Deep northwesterly flow will setup behind the rather anomalous upper trough on Sunday night into Monday opening up the gates to the arctic. High pressure over the desert southwest and a deep upper low over the ohio Valley will support a steady stream of dry continental polar air to make it well into the Gulf ushering in the first real taste of winter. Luckily the bitter cold temperatures will only last a day or two as we steadily heat up with more west-northwesterly winds aloft by the end of the week.

Severe Weather...We are looking at a couple periods of strong to severe storms over the next 48 hours. Neither is rather enthusing and overall storm coverage and severe storms will be rather limited and isolated IF it even happens at all. However, there is enough here to discuss. The first round will likely be centered around late tomorrow afternoon through early tomorrow evening (4pm-8pm). Recent high resolution guidance has suggested isolated to widely scattered storms develop along a lifting marine boundary. This marine boundary will be marked by dewpoints climbing into the 70s and theta-e values in and around 340K. Lapse rates will be rather paltry as height falls and warm mid level temps will keep instability profiles tall and skinny despite having around 1000 J/KG. This really isn't a setup for explosive thunderstorm development but more of a slow burn. This slow burn and weak overall forcing will likely be the main limiting factor to storms as the environment really isn't primed for deep storm development. However, this is Mobile and there's always a fly in the ointment. Along that lifting boundary, which will likely make it to around highway 84 by the afternoon, hodographs will be short but highly curved with storm relative inflows in and around 20 knots. With 0-1 KM SRH around 100 to 150 m2/s2 of mostly streamwise SRH, we bring bag an environment rich for mini supercells/mini-spinnies. Given the thermodynamic environment, storms will likely remain small early on in the event and take time to cluster up and mature but as they do they might be able to take full advantage of the environment which would be supportive of a tornado and or a damaging wind gust or two. This is a relatively low end threat but if all the pieces come together along the boundary then we would not be shocked to a brief tornado occur.

The second severe threat could come late Sunday afternoon as forcing and instability increase along the advancing cold front. Steepening lapse rates and increasing winds aloft leading to elongated straight hodographs could result in an isolated strong to severe storm to occur mainly east of I-65. Given the thermodynamic profile and propensity to be undercut by the boundary, any organized storms will likely have the potential of producing small hail. If storms can remain more surface based, especially during the afternoon when daytime heating is maximized, a damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out. However, most of the activity looks to occur after sunset leading to limited instability confined to the mid and upper levels. Thus the risk for some small hail.

All in all both risk areas have been given a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) by the storm prediction center. Neither one is jumping off the page as being a serious issue; however, it only take one bad storm to ruin someones day and while the limiting factor is storm coverage and intensity, IF a stronger storm was to develop it could certainly pose a nasty little punch. Especially tomorrow afternoon.

Cold Temperatures... As mentioned earlier a shallow arctic airmass is expected to blast into the area Sunday night as temperatures plummet into the low 30s inland and upper 30s at the coast and that will be the start. With steady cold advection through the day on Monday and winds relaxing some Monday night into Tuesday morning, temperatures are looking to drop into near record daily values and roughly 20 degrees below normal. Spread on guidance is relatively small with only a 3 degree spread between the 25th (lowest reasonable temperatures) and the 75th (highest reasonable lows) with the 25th in the low to mid 20s and the higher in the upper 20s to low 30s. This means that guidance is fairly confident on the temperature forecast for a day 5 forecast. NBM probabilities of less than 30 degrees is greater than 60% even to the I-10 corridor and 20-30% all the way to the immediate coast. Our record lows for November 11th are 31 at Mobile and 33 for Pensacola. Safe to say that all signs are pointing to setting new daily low temperatures with widespread freeze products. On top of that, windchills near the coast could drop into the low 20s which would be warranted for cold weather advisory products. Given the confidence in this forecast and the rather abrupt drop from fall, sensitive agriculture/plants and vulnerable communities with improper heating measures will certainly be at threat.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours. By around midnight, ceilings north of the immediate coast are expected to drop to IFR or LIFR (locally VLIFR) through the remainder of the night. Fog potential is a little more questionable due to elevated winds just above the surface. Locations that have the best chance for fog development (potentially dense in spots) are for interior, low-lying areas. Any fog that does develop will dissipate after sunrise, and ceilings should improve to MVFR by late Friday morning. Scattered showers and storms should develop by the afternoon hours, especially over the interior. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. /96

MARINE

Issued at 1158 AM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Light southeasterly flow will develop this afternoon, becoming southerly on Friday. A westerly to southwesterly flow on Saturday switches to a moderate to strong northwesterly flow on Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Gusts to gale force are possible over the open Gulf waters Sunday night into Monday morning. BB-8

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 61 78 64 80 / 10 50 20 10 Pensacola 65 78 68 80 / 0 30 30 10 Destin 65 77 68 79 / 0 20 40 20 Evergreen 55 78 61 82 / 0 50 40 10 Waynesboro 56 77 61 80 / 10 50 20 10 Camden 54 76 61 80 / 0 50 40 10 Crestview 54 79 63 82 / 0 20 30 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.