textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning east of I-65 today.

- A High Risk of rip currents will continue through tonight for all area beaches.

- Moderate to strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft today.

UPDATE

Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The current package is on track. Numerous showers and storms near the coast are anticipated to transition to isolated to scattered convection near and east of I-65 today. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A cold front depicted on the surface observation plot and being detected by regional radars currently stretches from central Alabama to southern Mississippi. This front will continue to move very slowly southeastward and reach the I-65 corridor by late this afternoon and eventually just offshore by late tonight. The boundary will then waver along the coast as a sea-breeze pushes slightly inland Monday afternoon and then south of the coast by Tuesday morning due to developing land-breeze. This boundary is associated with an upper positively-tilted upper trough currently stretching from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi River that will slowly push eastward through noon Monday. This trough is then expected to dissipate through Monday night, but an upper cutoff low will be left behind roughly centered over northern Georgia and that will slowly lift northward over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

For today, abundant moisture will be in place ahead of the cold front with PWATs ranging from 2.1-2.3 inches. We are still forecasting numerous to widespread showers and storms over coastal Alabama and northwest Florida this morning due to shortwave energy aloft with additional development across south central Alabama this afternoon due to forcing along an 850mb front and daytime surface heating. Because of the slowness of this system, we expect scattered showers and storms to linger south of a line from Andalusia to Mobile this evening before tapering off to the southeast.

With a drier airmass filtering in from the northwest, dry conditions will prevail Monday and Tuesday, but can not rule out a few afternoon storms moving south over our far eastern zones along the western periphery of the upper cutoff low pressure area. A few afternoon storms are then expected on Wednesday along a sea-breeze as we return to a diurnal convection pattern. High temperatures today through midweek will be in the lower to middle 90s, but with the drier air mass filtering in, heat indices should remain below Heat Advisory criteria through much of the week. A High Risk of Rip Currents will be in place through tonight, lowering to a Moderate Risk for Monday. The rip current risk drops to a Low Risk for Tuesday and into midweek. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

General MVFR to VFR conditions with a shower or thunderstorm or two with a wind shift tonight as a front passes are expected over non- coastal counties. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over our coastal counties, with local drops to low end MVFR from upper end MVFR/VFR conditions are expected. Locally variable winds are expected with the stronger thunderstorms.

AS mentioned above, a weak front will move south across the area this afternoon into tonight, eventually stalling south of the coast tonight. Westerly winds 5 to 10 knots (10-15 knots along the coast) will shift to northwest to northerly tonight behind the front. /16

MARINE

Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly winds gradually weaken tonight and become northwesterly to westerly. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound until 7 am, and continues until 4 pm this afternoon for the open Gulf waters. A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow develops on Monday then becomes southerly on Wednesday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 91 70 91 72 / 30 10 10 10 Pensacola 89 75 90 76 / 80 30 10 10 Destin 87 76 89 77 / 90 30 10 0 Evergreen 90 69 90 69 / 30 10 10 0 Waynesboro 90 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 88 69 89 70 / 0 0 10 10 Crestview 89 70 91 70 / 70 30 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650- 655-670-675.