textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- A line of severe thunderstorms will move through the area tonight with the potential for strong tornadoes (up to EF2 in intensity) and strong, damaging winds (70+mph).

- High risk of rip currents for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

- Strong marine winds late tonight through Thursday evening will create hazardous conditions for small craft operators.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Southern stream mid/upper level impulse over southeast TX this evening is ejecting east northeast. At the surface, a complex pattern exists with main cold front draped from the eastern Great Lakes, southwest to across central TX. Ahead of the front, a pre- frontal trof of low pressure is set-up from the Mid-South to the upper TX Coast. Along this boundary, waves of frontal low pressure is causing an increase in ascent along with upper support via speed max from ~90kt coming through the base of the southern stream upper trof. Coincident with ascent, a plume of deep Gulf moisture characterized by PWAT's 1.6 to 1.8" is intersecting the front and along with sufficient environmental instability (MLCapes ~1500 J/Kg) over western LA, a line of convection is organizing. This line makes steady eastward progression this evening with the latest CAM's in fairly good support on what appears to be a potent convective line approaching the western zones late this evening crossing into southwest AL around midnight and continuing east through the remainder of the area between 2 and 5 AM. The environment is supportive of damaging winds perhaps up to/in excess of 70 mph in enhanced rear-flank storm downdraft bowing line segments. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center indicates the greatest impacts being probability of damaging winds at 30%, a smaller % exists for tornadoes but the environment does support the potential for a few strong tornadoes, especially those that are spawned from more discrete/isolated storm cells lifting north northeast that may form out ahead of the main line. Locally heavy rains/high rain rates are possible too, but the fast eastward progression of the line favors the flooding threat being limited. /10

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A rather potent line of strong to severe thunderstorms will pass through the area from late this evening through daybreak Thursday, with the potential for strong tornadoes up to EF2 in intensity and damaging winds up to 70 mph. Beach and marine hazards will also impact the area with a HIGH rip current risk occurring from late tonight through Thursday afternoon, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect starting at 1am tonight and continues into Thursday evening.

Synopsis...

An upper trough over east Texas this evening will advance eastward over the lower Mississippi River region late tonight into Thursday and become much less amplified in the process. A strong cold front approaching from the northwest will pass through our area after midnight, bringing gusty northerly winds late tonight through Thursday afternoon. A much cooler and drier airmass behind the front will only allow high temperatures Thursday to climb into the lower to middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast. Low temperatures Thursday night should fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, with middle 40s along the with coast. We may need to issue Frost Advisory for our inland areas as recent temperatures have been well above normal resulting in an early growing season. Surface high pressure behind the front will continue through the remainder of the week with temperatures quickly warming back into the upper 70s and lower 80s over the weekend. The next chance of rain will occur early next week as a large upper trough is expected to dig south over the entire eastern CONUS, followed by the passage of another cold front sometime Monday night.

Severe Weather Potential...

Projected MLCape values in the pre-storm environment are now in the 800 to 1200j/kg range and sfc-3km SRH values have increased to around 300 m2/s2. In addition, sfc-6km Bulk Shear values are up to between 55-65 kts. This moderate instability and shear is more then enough to support an anticipated organized QLCS tonight with strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has our entire area outlooked for a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms, and we are still messaging the potential for strong tornadoes up to EF2 in intensity and damaging winds up to 70 mph. Currently the anticipated timing calls for a few discrete severe thunderstorms to develop out in front of the line by 8-10pm over the far interior portions of southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama, with a slightly faster progression of the line. As we head into the overnight hours, the leading edge of the QLCS is expected to enter southeastern Mississippi and our northwestern Alabama zones between 11pm-12am, spreading quickly eastward to the I-65 corridor between 1am-2am, and exiting the forecast area to the east by daybreak. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts up to 3 inches is also expected, but the overall progressive nature of this line should limit the potential for flooding.

Beach Forecast: A MODERATE risk of rip currents will increase to HIGH after midnight through Thursday before settling back to a LOW risk by Friday through the weekend. Surf heights up to four feet are also likely prior to the passage of a strong cold front. /22

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist through the evening, especially near the coast. A line of strong to severe storms will quickly slide across the area this evening and overnight ahead of a cold front. Expect brief reductions in visibility as this line quickly passes through the area. Storms will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds and a few tornadoes. Southerly winds will increase with gusts as high as 20-25 knots. Winds quickly become northwesterly in the wake of the cold front. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Southerly to southwesterly winds increase through midnight ahead of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms approaching from the west. This line of storms is expected to pass over the marine area after midnight through daybreak Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect starting at 100 AM tonight and continues into Thursday evening as winds turn northerly in the wake of a strong cold front. Light easterly flow becomes established Friday through Saturday morning, followed by a light onshore flow through the remainder of the weekend. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 51 66 42 71 / 100 20 0 0 Pensacola 56 67 47 68 / 90 40 0 0 Destin 59 70 49 67 / 90 40 0 0 Evergreen 50 65 37 73 / 100 30 0 0 Waynesboro 46 62 38 71 / 100 10 0 0 Camden 46 61 38 70 / 100 30 0 0 Crestview 54 69 39 72 / 90 40 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk from midnight CDT tonight through Thursday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from midnight CDT tonight through Thursday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ633>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 5 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670-675.