textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Several chances for beneficial rainfall are expected through Saturday with additional rainfall totals of around 2 inches possible. - Strong winds return this weekend to area waters, creating hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A cut off upper low off the Baja coast gradually breaks down and is absorbed into a large and broad upper trof pattern over the interior states, with this pattern eventually evolving into a meridionally oriented upper trof over the eastern states by Saturday. An outflow flow boundary from a weakening MCS is currently located just south of the coast, and a cold front approaching from the north is expected to move through the forecast area overnight. An area of rain currently located mainly over southeastern Mississippi into extreme southwest Alabama is anticipated to diminish while spreading further eastward into the area overnight. Additional convection is expected to develop late tonight over interior areas then gradually become oriented over the southern portion of the area through Thursday afternoon. An interesting aspect to the forecast is that a surface low is anticipated to form roughly over the northwestern Gulf on Friday then track along the north central Gulf Friday night before ejecting off to the east. This system is expected to bring beneficial rainfall to the area mainly from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, with rainfall amounts during this period ranging from 1.5-2.0 inches, and locally higher amounts will be possible. Depending on the eventual trajectory of the surface low, there is the potential that a warm front could lift into the coastal counties which would portend potential strong storms. Will continue to monitor. The rain will be ending from west to east on Saturday, and dry conditions follow for Saturday night through Tuesday. Chance pops return to the forecast for Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the Plains. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Thursday through Friday, then a moderate risk follows for Saturday. A low risk of rip currents returns for Sunday. /29

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Widespread showers and storms affect the area this evening before moving off to the east. Another round of showers and storms may occur overnight into early Thursday morning, then isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible through Thursday afternoon. Gusty winds and IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with the stronger storms. Winds otherwise become light and variable overnight, then a northerly flow at 5-10 knots prevails on Thursday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow through tonight will gradually transition to an offshore flow Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front moves through. Winds shift predominately easterly for Friday and an inverted surface trough approaches from the west, followed by a moderate to strong offshore flow for the coming weekend as the trough moves eastward. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 80 59 70 / 80 70 50 70 Pensacola 69 80 63 72 / 60 70 60 60 Destin 69 79 64 75 / 50 70 60 60 Evergreen 62 77 54 69 / 60 60 40 60 Waynesboro 61 72 54 65 / 80 60 40 80 Camden 60 73 53 66 / 70 50 30 70 Crestview 65 83 58 74 / 60 60 50 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.