textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Additional rounds of light to moderate rain through Saturday will be focused near and southeast of the I-65 corridor.

- There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents through the early evening hours for the beaches of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

- A strong cold front will move across the area late Sunday night into early Monday morning, resulting in hazardous marine conditions for small craft through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The next round of rain is moving in as of midday as the next subtle shortwave embedded in the upper level southwest flow moves through. It looks like this round will impact us mostly this afternoon into early this evening, with highest totals being over the southern and eastern half of the area. This round will likely be followed by another relative lull in the rain late this evening into part of the overnight. However, a more well defined shortwave currently moving into the southern Plains will result in a new round of light to moderate developing by early Saturday morning along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. Given the more progressive nature of this shortwave from west to east, we finally expect to see significant rain chances come to an end from west to east by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Additional rainfall totals of a 0.5-1.5" are possible in the eastern half of the area, with the highest totals favored along the coast. We currently do not expect much in the way of flooding issues outside of some ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

Yet another strong shortwave will move out of the Pacific Northwest and into the southeast/TN Valley by Sunday night. This will push a much stronger cold front through the area late Sunday night into early Monday morning. It's a bit uncertain how much deep layer moisture will be available ahead of this system, but we did maintain a chance of showers for Sunday and Sunday night given the dynamics of this system.

Much colder and drier air moves into the area in the wake of the front for early next week. A light freeze is likely along and north of Hwy 84 Tuesday morning. 34/JFB

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A large band of cloud cover continues to stream over the central Gulf coast. Radar shows coverage of mainly -RA increasing over the offshore waters and gradually lifting/spreading north and northeast. Appears a sheet of BKN/OVC Cigs mainly MVFR bases is favored to lower to IFR categories going through the afternoon as rains spread in from the west southwest. Some oscillations to MVFR/LIFR cig categories can be expected from time to time. Wind maintained with a northerly component at mostly 5 to 10 kts thru the afternoon becomes light overnight. /10

MARINE

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A light to moderate offshore flow will persist through Saturday as a cold front settles further south over the Gulf waters. A strong cold front will move through late Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing another round of strong offshore flow and building seas across the open Gulf waters. Winds and seas will subside through midweek as high pressure builds over the region. 34/JFB

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.