textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents Sunday night into Monday for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Increasing concern for the potential of severe storms along a squall line that slides across the area late Sunday into early Monday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main threats.

- Increasing confidence in at least 4-6 hours of below freezing temperatures early Tuesday morning behind a strong cold front across our interior counties in south Alabama and south Mississippi. Strong marine winds are expected early Monday morning behind the front with gale force gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Nice weather is expected today through at least Sunday afternoon before the roller coaster truly begins. A surface high draped across parts of the Southeast will generally remain in control of our weather through early on Sunday. Highs will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s over the weekend. Enjoy our nice fake-spring weather while it lasts this weekend as we have severe weather on tap for Sunday night into Monday and then winter makes a comeback early next week. Buckle up for the roller coaster ride that our region is about to take over the coming days.

A strengthening upper level trough digs across the Plains on Sunday as the associated surface low quickly deepens as it ejects northeastward across the Midwest Sunday afternoon and evening. A strong cold front draped to the south of the surface low will slide into our area Sunday night into Monday morning. Moisture return gradually improves through the day today, but begins to quickly increase on Sunday as deep southerly flow returns to the area. Still anticipate some isolated showers by the time the afternoon rolls around on Sunday, but Sunday (during the day) won't be a wash out. There's an increasing likelihood for strong to severe storms during the overnight hours Sunday into early Monday as the low level jet starts cranking overhead prior to the arrival of the cold front. A compact squall line will dive across our area overnight, likely entering our westernmost counties late Sunday night, prior to midnight. This squall line or broken line of storms will quickly progress across the area through the early morning hours on Monday. This will be another quick-hitting event for our area, so flooding is not a concern at this time. However, there will be more than ample shear and instability as this line of storms rolls into the region. Most of the guidance still shows some weak capping, which should keep isolated convection from developing ahead of the line. However, there are some CAMs showing less capping with a few isolated storms developing out ahead of the line, so it's tough to completely rule it out at this point. We expect the main impacts to be strong winds (easily 60+mph, if not 70mph winds) along any bowing segments along the squall line. That said, if we do see isolated convection firing up ahead of the line, there may be a few QLCS tornadoes (similar to this last event) any time an isolated shower get ingested into the squall line.

Temperatures take a nose dive behind the cold front on Monday. Highs will struggle on both Monday and Tuesday with highs only reaching into the 50s both days (60s across the Florida panhandle on Monday, but that will be in the early morning hours). Bitter cold temperatures are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning where temperatures plunge into the 20s and 30s area-wide. Expect several hours of below freezing temperatures overnight across our northernmost counties. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning won't be much better as low temperatures will be a carbon copy of the previous night. Temperatures finally start to rebound by mid-week with highs soaring back into the 80s on Friday and Saturday.

Beach Forecast - Risk for rip currents quickly increases in the strengthening onshore flow on Sunday with a HIGH risk expected Sunday night through the day on Monday. Surf and rip current conditions should quickly improve in the northerly flow behind the front. 07/mb

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13

MARINE

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Strengthening onshore flow returns early on Sunday ahead of the next approaching cold front. Winds abruptly turn northwesterly behind a front by early Monday. Small craft conditions are expected by Monday with the potential for gale force gusts behind the front. Strong offshore flow will persist through at least Tuesday. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 77 57 81 45 / 0 0 10 90 Pensacola 75 63 78 50 / 0 10 20 90 Destin 74 64 76 53 / 0 10 20 90 Evergreen 81 56 82 44 / 0 10 10 90 Waynesboro 77 53 81 40 / 0 0 10 90 Camden 78 56 81 41 / 0 0 10 90 Crestview 81 57 81 50 / 0 10 20 90

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.