textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 - Hot conditions continue today with heat index values of 108-112 possible.

- Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon through the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend for all area beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The heat finally begins to relax as we enter a much more active pattern for showers and thunderstorms late week into the weekend. Upper troughing begins to nudge its way into the area as upper ridging retreats westward, allowing for northerly flow aloft to prevail through Friday night and more westerly flow around the base of the trough this weekend. This will allow for several weak shortwaves to track across the region over the next few days, providing for daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A surface cold front attempts to work its way southward towards the area, but will likely hang up just north of the forecast area. Today is the last day of heat advisories as heat indices rise into the 108 to 112 range this afternoon, with heat indices below criteria in the 100 to 105 range Friday areawide. With that said, high temperatures top out in the middle to upper 90's today and upper 80's to lower 90's Friday and into the weekend. Overnight lows stay hot in the middle to upper 70's.

With the increase in coverage of showers and storms, there will also be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms any given afternoon through this weekend. Some mid-level dry air begins working its way into the area which should allow for more robust downdrafts with any storms. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts associated with these microbursts will be possible in any storm, particularly as we get into the weekend. Shear is fairly weak, but can't rule out some loosely organized multi-cell clusters or bowing segments. In addition to this, locally heavy rainfall is likely with storms. If storms train over the same areas or decide to sit over any given location for a prolonged period of time, localized flash flooding could be possible.

As we head into next week the upper trough lifts out and we gradually get upper ridging to work its way back into the area. Afternoon highs warm into the lower to middle 90's again and rain chances diminish to more isolated to scattered coverage each day next week.

A Moderate risk of rip currents continues today through Friday, becoming a High risk of rip currents for all area beaches as we get into the weekend. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR flight category is expected to prevail across the area through tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the region, temporarily reducing flight category and potentially producing variable and strong wind gusts. Winds remain generally out of the west around 5 to 10 knots today, relaxing to light and variable at night. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Small Craft should exercise caution this weekend, and forecast trends will be monitored for the potential need of Small Craft Advisories at some point this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 75 92 75 91 / 50 80 50 60 Pensacola 79 91 77 90 / 50 80 70 70 Destin 80 90 78 89 / 40 80 70 80 Evergreen 73 92 72 88 / 40 70 50 80 Waynesboro 74 93 74 91 / 40 80 40 60 Camden 74 91 73 87 / 40 60 50 80 Crestview 75 93 74 90 / 50 80 60 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-059- 261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...None.