textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- A strong to marginally severe storm or two can't be ruled out this afternoon and into this evening ahead of a cold front. Locally heavy rainfall may also be possible along the immediate coastline.

- Dry weather and above normal high temperatures return to the forecast mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

11.17Z water vapor satellite imagery indicates a convectively active/enhanced area of lightning activity along a piece of southern stream mid-level energy starting to approach the area from the west. The deepest convection is aligned from the Mouth of the MS to around 320 miles southwest of the southeast LA coast. This feature is ejecting east out of the main short-wave mid-level trof that is moving east over southeast TX. At the surface, a front was oriented from the Mid-Atlantic southwest to off the southwest LA/upper TX coast where a frontal wave of low pressure has formed. As the upper impulse continues sliding eastward today, the front also eases in across the central Gulf Coast and will provide a focus for increased ascent for showers and storms to increase in areal coverage as an east to west belt of environmental instability, characterized by Mean SBCapes now increased to 1500-2000 J/kg is aligned over the heart of the forecast area. Radar is beginning to show isolated showers and storms beginning to breakout over the interior and we anticipate coverage will only increase further as we progress through the afternoon and carryover into this evening. This is supported by the latest 11.12Z high resolution short range ensemble solutions of future 40+ dBZ radar echoes filling in and increasing in coverage from 11.20 to 12.00Z and activity lingering into the evening. Late night-time activity moves southeast of the I-65 corridor with coverage lowering west of there. Although low-level winds and lapse rates are rather weak, a few storms could still overachieve and become marginally severe capable of damaging winds and perhaps large hail. It's not out of the question that storms that organize and move over the same areas will bring heavy rain potential and a marginal risk of localized flooding.

The front slips southeast across the coastal waters tonight. There are indications that a chance of showers/perhaps a few storms will reform along the I-10 corridor Tuesday with the west end of the southern stream mid-level trof yet to completely pass. The risk of severe weather Tuesday is minimal to none. A 20% PoP lingers in the forecast for portions of the coast on Wednesday afternoon before high pressure moving east over the deep south and southeast US brings uneventful weather Thursday, continuing into the weekend.

Highs in the 80's through the period. Lows mostly in the 60's the next few nights. The coolest night this period is advertised for Thu night where lows dip into the lower to mid 50s east of a line from Waynesboro MS to Crestview FL before moderating again over the weekend. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail until rain and thunderstorms develop by late afternoon or early evening, mainly across the southern half of the area. Any thunderstorms will bring MVFR ceilings/visibilities and potentially IFR visibilities in the heaviest rain. Some uncertainty lies in the extent of thunderstorms near the coast through the late evening and overnight. Light rain will dissipate from west to east by early to mid morning on Tuesday, with any remaining MVFR ceilings lifting to VFR by late morning. Winds should stay light and variable through tonight and become northerly at 4-8 knots by morning, away from convection.

98/97/10

MARINE

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A cold front makes passage tonight resulting in a light north to northeast flow becoming more easterly Tuesday. Winds become variable, primarily offshore flow by mid-week before shifting back to onshore Friday, through the weekend and remain light with high pressure positioned to the east. Seas generally 2 feet or less. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 65 85 64 86 / 40 0 0 10 Pensacola 68 83 68 83 / 50 10 0 20 Destin 69 82 70 81 / 40 20 10 10 Evergreen 62 85 62 86 / 20 0 0 10 Waynesboro 60 83 60 85 / 10 0 0 0 Camden 60 82 60 84 / 10 0 0 10 Crestview 65 87 63 87 / 40 20 10 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.