textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Isolated severe storms are possible between 3am and 10am Sunday. The primarily threats are damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado.

- Strong marine winds will occur late tonight through Sunday night with the potential for occasional gusts to gale force resulting in hazardous boating conditions.

- High surf heights up to 5 to 7 feet and strong rip currents will impact coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this weekend.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 748 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A squall line has organized this evening across east Texas in response to a vigorous shortwave quickly moving east over central TX. These features will continue their quick eastern progression through the overnight hours. Latest timing indicates that the squall line will enter southeast Mississippi by 3am, be near or just east of I-65 by 6am, and likely be east of the area by 9-10am. Shear will be strong with this system with a 50-60 kt low level jet moving across the area, helping to yield 0-1km bulk shear of 35-45 kt and 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. Instability will be the main question mark due to the fast nature of the return flow ahead of the squall line. Latest hi-res guidance indicates MLCAPES could rise to 500-750 J/kg, with the highest values located closer to the coast. In addition, 0-3km CAPE is forecast to be 100-150 J/kg along the coastal zones, which is favorable for severe weather. These high shear/low CAPE events are always tricky though as there are always question marks on if the shear will be too strong. However, given the forcing of the potent upper trough combined with the presence of at least some low level instability, there should continue to be a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an embedded tornado along the squall line. SPC recently upgraded southeast Mississippi to a Slight Risk of severe weather with a Marginal Risk continuing across the rest of the forecast area.

The forecast was also updated a little while ago to account for an earlier arrival of warm air advection showers this evening. We will also likely be increasing wind gusts some overnight ahead of the squall line with wind gusts of 30-35 mph likely. 34/JFB

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

We transition to period of wet weather tonight through Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge pushes to the east and a potent southern stream shortwave approaches from the west. Southerly winds in the low and mid levels increase this evening and then shift to southwesterly allowing for moisture to quickly advect back into the local area with PWATs increasing to 1.3-1.5 inches. This shortwave will cross over the southern Mississippi River region by late tonight with the axis reaching Alabama by noon Sunday while remaining neutral. At the surface, high pressure over the southeast states will also shift east while a surface low pressure area over the ARLATEX region this evening moves eastward across northern Mississippi and Alabama on Sunday. As the low approaches, a tightening pressure gradient will allow southerly to southwesterly winds to increase tonight through Sunday morning, helping to increase dew points into the lower to middle 60s area- wide along with breezy surface winds.

Severe Weather Potential...

Strong to marginal severe thunderstorms remain possible across the forecast area after midnight tonight through Sunday morning as outlooked by SPC. Instability and lapse rates still look rather low with this system with MLCAPE values up to around 500-1000 J/kg. However, a strengthening Low-level Jet (850mb) up to around 60 knots from 3 AM tonight through 9 AM Sunday is expected to move quickly from west to east over the area. Latest guidance has not changed the timing with the leading edge of this line moving through our Mississippi counties between 3-5 AM, southwest Alabama between 5-7 AM, and the I-65 corridor between 7-9 AM. The line should exit the area by 10 AM. Convective wind gusts to 60 mph (perhaps locally higher) will be possible with the leading edge of the line of storms during this time frame. Hodographs are large and curved with 0-1km SRH values of 250-400 m2/s2, and if this line remains surface based, a low-end tornado threat is possible. After the main line passes, we will see a lull in activity as drier air punches in from the west, but there could be a few early to mid-afternoon strong thunderstorms along and north of the Highway-84 corridor as the upper trough/surface low pushes through.

Beach Forecast: A High Surf Advisory remains in effect from 3 AM tonight through 6 AM Monday for surf heights increasing to 5-7 feet. A High Risk of Rip Currents is also in effect starting at midnight tonight and continuing through Monday afternoon before returning back to a Low Risk by Tuesday. /22

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Low end MVFR conditions are overspreading the forecast area as a system approaches. This system's speed has proven to be faster than guidance has suggested, so am expecting the lower CIGs/VISBYs to reach the eastern edge of the forecast area by 09z, and out of the area by 13z. Have kept the LLWS in the forecast for the as the low level feature of this system in for the late night into morning time frame. /16

MARINE

Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly flow through this evening will increase to strong after midnight, and small craft operators should exercise caution this evening. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from midnight tonight to midnight CST Sunday night as southwest winds 20 to 25 kt shift to the northwest with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft expected. This moderate to strong offshore flow in the wake of a cold front will decrease to a light to moderate offshore flow by Monday morning. Light onshore flow returns for Tuesday through midweek. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 59 74 53 71 / 80 60 10 0 Pensacola 60 71 55 69 / 80 90 10 0 Destin 58 70 56 69 / 80 90 20 0 Evergreen 53 74 50 72 / 80 90 30 0 Waynesboro 57 69 51 71 / 90 80 10 0 Camden 56 70 51 69 / 80 90 20 0 Crestview 53 74 52 73 / 80 90 30 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.