textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

- There is a high risk of life threatening rip currents across all area beaches through this afternoon.

- Patchy fog is possible Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected for all of next week, including Christmas Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A brief shot of colder and drier air has moved into the area in the wake of an early morning cold front. High pressure will move over the region tonight, allowing winds to become light to calm. This results in lows dropping into the low to mid 30s across the area. This will be a very short lived cold snap as the surface high will quickly shift well east of the area on Saturday allowing for an onshore flow and moderating temperatures. A subtle shortwave embedded in the fast moving zonal flow aloft along with another front trying to move in from the north will bring a small chance of showers to southeast MS/southwest AL Sunday into early Monday morning.

Model guidance is in very strong agreement that an atypically strong upper level ridge will build in from the west on Tuesday and will be centered over the northern Gulf Coast by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. In fact, ensemble guidance indicates the strength of this upper high is in the top 1-2% of the climate database for this time of year. This will lead to a very mild Christmas holiday with highs easily rising into the low to mid 70s. Given how strong this ridge is, high temps a bit warmer into the mid to upper 70s is possible. Could record highs be in jeopardy? We can't rule it out, but the 925mb/850mb temps are currently modeled to be just a bit lower than those years. Something to keep an eye on. Lows will generally be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Christmas Day Record Highs: Mobile - 80 (2016) Pensacola - 78 (2023/1974/1955)

34/JFB

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Breezy north winds this afternoon will diminish and become light tonight, shifting to the southeast by midday Saturday. 34/JFB

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Strong offshore flow will continue to diminish this afternoon into tonight. The Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf waters was allowed to expire at noon. Winds transition to the east and southeast over the weekend through the middle of the next week. While winds will be generally light, there will be occasional periods of slightly stronger winds. 34/JFB

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.