textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1136 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026 - A much colder and drier airmass will move into the area in the wake of a strong cold front, with several reinforcing shots of cool, dry air through the weekend. - A frost/freeze is likely across portions of the area each night Friday through Sunday.

- A strong surge of easterly winds is possible early next week with the potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions with gale force gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1050 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

As of tonight, a large upper level low centered over the Great Lakes is providing a belt of west-northwesterly flow aloft across the Southeast. As we progress towards the weekend, the upper level low will pivot east accompanied by a couple of shortwaves that will enhance northwesterly flow aiding in the southern advancement of a cold and dry Canadian prairie airmass into the Gulf Coast states. As such the first freeze of the season is expected during the overnight hours this weekend for areas along and north of Highway 84. With current guidance consistency, the Freeze watch for those counties is likely to be upgraded to Freeze Warning for Friday night into Saturday morning with the possibility of another Freeze Watch issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning. With light winds and clear skies it is possible for some localized lows to reach the upper 20s near the northern periphery while elsewhere widespread low temps below 40 are expected for much of the rest of the CWA for those respective nights, with exceptions present along the immediate Gulf Coast.

The cold and dry airmass remains in place until a subtle progressive ridge pushes into the area from the west on Sunday which prompts a slight warming trend bring lows back to at or above freezing. This is quickly followed by a nearly cutoff upper level low that propagates across the southern plains into the area by Monday. This looks to usher in enhanced west-southwesterly flow and increased moisture, though with surface low track and timing uncertainty pops remain at or below 30% at this time. Additionally with a large surface high to the north, an enhanced gradient will result in increased east-northeasterly winds, especially over much of the marine area with wind gusts approaching gale force during the latter half of Monday. The cutoff low then looks to break down to an open wave and progress across the southeastern states, and a high pressure ridge looks to settle in for the remainder of the period. This prompts a warming trend back to at or slightly above climatological normals with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows back to comfortably above freezing.

Low Rip Current risk will continue into the weekend before ramping up to moderate by Sunday afternoon and to high by Monday afternoon.

KL/31

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light southwesterly winds become northwesterly around 10 knots Thursday morning with gusts up to 15-20 knots. Gusts wane after sunset and winds prevail northerly around 5 knots. SS/97

MARINE

Issued at 400 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Small craft should exercise caution offshore tonight through Saturday morning as periods of moderate to strong offshore flow develop through the weekend behind a strong cold front. Strong easterly flow becomes established early next week with advisory level conditions expected and a low-end potential for gusts to gale force. Seas build to greater than 7 feet across the near and offshore Gulf waters in response to the strengthening winds early next week. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 45 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 76 50 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 75 53 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 72 40 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 73 39 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 69 40 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 75 42 63 35 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for ALZ051>058.

FL...None. MS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MSZ067.

GM...None.