textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents continues through tonight for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches becoming Moderate Sunday. - Rain chances remain elevated this weekend, particularly over the western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible, which could lead to localized flooding concerns.

- Heat indices may reach the 100 degree mark by the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The forecast is generally on track with no changes planned at the moment. /29

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Through Tuesday...an upper level shortwave trough moves around the top of an upper ridge centered over the Gulf through Sunday. A closed upper low over the Plains swings around the north side of the same upper ridge, eventually connecting with more energy over the eastern Conus. This digs an deep upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard, shifting the upper ridge west to over the Southern Plains. A drier airmass (precipitable h20 values dropping to 1.5"-1.7") moves over the forecast area, replacing the current soupy airmass (with precipitable h20 values in the 2.2"-2.4" range). With a bit of shortwave energy around late tonight and more passing during the day Sunday, a few early morning showers, maybe a thunderstorm or two are possible around sunrise Sunday, mainly west of the Alabama River. This activity becomes more widespread in coverage in the afternoon, along with spreading farther east. Instability is decent, with SBCapes rising into the 1500-200J/kg range in the afternoon. Combined with the soupy airmass bringing efficient rainers, water issues may again be a problem Sunday, especially if we receive training cells interacting with a surface boundary. A few strong to marginally severe storms are also possible, but are expected to be of the pulse type bringing strong downbursts.

Temperatures creep up into Tuesday, from below seasonal high temperatures in low to mid 80s Sunday to above seasonal upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures remain in the low to mid 70s into Tuesday.

Tuesday night on...the contention between the Southern Plains upper high and the East Coast upper trough continues, with the Plains upper high winning as it builds slowly east over the Mississippi River. Moisture levels also increase through the latter half of the week, with isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms returning by the end of the week as daytime heating works with increasing moisture levels increases instability to override upper subsidence from the building upper ridge. Temperatures increase through the period, with high temperatures in the 89 to 94 degree range by Friday. Heat indices also creep up, rising to around 100 by Thursday and into the 100 to 105 degree range for Friday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent onshore flow continues through the forecast, but weakens with the shifting upper pattern. The tidal range decreases through the week, with a current High overnight dropping to low by Monday. By the middle of the coming week, the tidal range begins to increase, bringing a Moderate Risk back to the forecast area. /16

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Precipitation increases in coverage through mid afternoon mainly along and west of I-65, then diminishes to dry conditions this evening. Primarily IFR to MVFR conditions improve to VFR first over eastern portions of the area beginning late morning, then over the remainder of the area during the afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible early this morning and again late tonight. Southerly winds at 5-10 knots develop today then diminish to a light and variable flow this evening. /29

MARINE

Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A light to moderate south to southeast flow today becomes southeasterly on Monday. A brief period of easterly flow on Tuesday returns to south to southeast by the middle of next week. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 85 73 87 71 / 70 10 10 0 Pensacola 85 76 87 75 / 40 10 0 0 Destin 85 75 87 75 / 20 10 0 0 Evergreen 84 70 88 70 / 80 20 20 10 Waynesboro 86 72 86 70 / 80 30 40 10 Camden 82 71 85 70 / 90 30 30 10 Crestview 86 70 90 71 / 40 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.