textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 range each afternoon through the end of the week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue each afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning can be expected with any storms.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents will return for all area beaches Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The upper trough now lifting across the Tennessee Valley will continue to weaken as it becomes absorbed into the westerlies through Thursday, resulting in a weak zonal flow pattern aloft through Friday. Seasonably high moisture, with PWATs locally exceeding 2 inches, along with strong instability will maintain our typical summertime pattern through Friday. Coverage appears a bit lower this afternoon compared to Thursday and Friday. Latest CAM guidance suggests scattered showers and storms developing near the coast during the morning hours on Thursday and Friday along the land breeze. This activity would be expected to shift inland by afternoon as our background low-level flow becomes more southwesterly on Thursday, allowing the sea breeze to progress a bit farther inland each afternoon. Any stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours.

A pattern shift takes shape this weekend into early next week as a pronounced positively tilted shortwave trough extends westward from larger-scale troughing developing off the northeast U.S. coast. As a large upper high builds over the north-central U.S., this shortwave will dive southeastward, placing the area under a northwesterly midlevel flow and driving a large-scale backdoor cold front south into the region late in the weekend into early next week. Increasing moisture ahead of this disturbance will support a gradual increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms, with scattered to numerous activity (40-60% PoPs) expected by Saturday and potentially widespread coverage in spots on Sunday and Monday. Ensemble mean PWATs climbing above the 90th percentile of climatology may favor enhanced rainfall rates, and trends will be monitored for a localized flooding threat. Uncertainty exists regarding the exact timing and southward extent of the front and shortwave progression, which will influence where the heaviest rainfall ultimately develops.

Temperatures will remain seasonably hot through Saturday, with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 90s and peak afternoon heat indices in the 100-107 range. Overnight lows offer little relief with mid 70s inland and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Increased rainfall and cloud cover along with the potential cool front entering the region may bring highs down into the 80s for many areas Sunday into early next week, especially over the interior.

At the beaches, a Low risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday before increasing to a Moderate risk on Friday for all area beaches, persisting through the weekend. JGC/98

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Afternoon thunderstorms are unlikely, but cannot be ruled out. /73

MARINE

Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to west flow will prevail through late week, becoming southerly Friday into the weekend. Seas will remain generally 2 feet or less through Friday, building to 2 to 3 feet by the weekend. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 40 Pensacola 79 93 79 92 / 10 30 20 30 Destin 81 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 30 Evergreen 74 94 74 93 / 10 40 10 50 Waynesboro 74 95 74 94 / 20 30 10 20 Camden 74 93 75 93 / 10 40 10 30 Crestview 75 95 75 93 / 10 30 10 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.