textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- HIGH risk for rip currents through Monday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Above average temperatures expected through the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 745 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

MVFR ceilings (CIGs) remain in place or redevelop shortly at the TAF sites and will continue to expand inland through the evening. CIGs will gradually lower through the night and may near IFR levels just prior to sunrise. There still remains some uncertainty but latest HREF Grand Ensemble probabilities have increased to between 50%-60% during this time period. If trends increase further, CIGs may need to be lowered further to IFR levels. Skies will gradually improve through the morning with VFR CIGs anticipated by early afternoon in most locations.

Brisk east winds between 6-12 kts will gradually weaken to between 5-7 kts after 03z. Winds will again increase towards sunrise and average around 10-12 kts on Monday as mixing increases with diurnal heating. /JLH

UPDATE

Issued at 745 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Latest analysis of GOES night-time microphysics satellite imagery shows stratus filling back in across areas where some clearing occurred earlier this afternoon. Latest high resolution model guidance suggests that an increasingly moist low level airmass, represented by mixing ratios between 10-12 g/kg advecting northward with isentropic ascent within the 950-900mb layer along the 295k theta surface. This should keep overcast stratus in place which should gradually lower through the night with low overcast remaining in place through mid morning Monday. Winds just above the low level inversion layer increase to around 20 kts which should prevent any fog from forming. East to eventually southeasterly flow with continued low level warm advection should keep low temperatures warmer tonight with lows ranging from the middle 50s over interior areas to the lower 60s along the coast.

The forecast has been updated to reflect the latest situation and to increase sky cover areawide through tonight and Monday morning. Cloud decks should gradually lift by Monday afternoon with some breaks in the clouds as mixing increases in response to diurnal heating. This should allow temperatures to rise back into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by later tomorrow afternoon. Forecast updates will be sent shortly. /JLH

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Now through Sunday...

An upper level ridge over the Southern Plains shifts east and deamplifies through the weekend as a series of strong upper level shortwaves dive south over the northwestern Conus and move east over the northern half of the Conus. Surface high pressure centered off the DelMarVa Peninsula shifts east, leaving a surface ridge over the Southeast with a decent gradient, and initially strong easterly flow over the northeastern Gulf. A cool and dryer airmass over the forecast area continues to moderate and moisten in the coming week with the return of onshore flow. Persistent cloud cover over the forecast area at this time is helping to limit insolation today of most of the forecast area, keeping temperatures closer to seasonal norms.

Rain returns to the forecast area in response to increasing moisture levels in the coming week, mainly Tuesday on. The advancing upper ridge and modest moisture return over the forecast area in the beginning of the week will keep the forecast dry over most of the forecast area Monday. As moisture levels increase (precipitable h20 levels rise to around 1.6" by Wednesday over the forecast area), rain chances increase, with the best chance being Wednesday into Wednesday night as upper level shortwave trough moves over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Isolated to scattered rain chances remain possible Thursday into the coming weekend as the continued train of shortwave energy (including a weakening, though decent upper level shortwave trough passing the end of the week) moving over the Conus. By the coming weekend, an upper trough has developed over or near the Plains (guidance varies). Inconsistency in placement and timing of shortwave energy passing through the trough the end of the week along with placement is leading to inconsistency in PoPs for the coming weekend. Current package has a blend of ensembles used for PoPs. Even with approaching upper trough, height anomalies remain on the positive side, with temperatures remaining above seasonal norms for the latter half of the week through the coming weekend.

The near to a bit above seasonal around 70 to mid 70s today rise back into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday (mid to upper 70s south of I- 10) and remain there for most of the rest of the forecast. Low temperatures tonight upper 50s to low 60s tonight rise into the low to mid 60s by Tuesday night, and remain there for the rest of the forecast.

Moderate to strong easterly flow today will shift to southeast to easterly early in the coming week, keeping the swell component high in the Rip Risk equation. Tidal range decreases through the week, though, counter balancing the increased swell. The Rip Risk is expected to bounce between Moderate to at times High through the week as a result. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Moderate to at times strong easterly winds will shift to southeast to southerly early in the coming week, keeping conditions unsettled at times over area waters, especially larger bays and open Gulf waters. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 61 78 65 81 / 0 30 10 40 Pensacola 63 75 65 77 / 0 10 0 30 Destin 62 73 64 75 / 0 10 0 20 Evergreen 55 81 59 83 / 10 20 0 30 Waynesboro 58 80 62 82 / 0 30 0 50 Camden 57 80 59 83 / 0 20 0 30 Crestview 56 81 59 83 / 0 20 0 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.