textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Moderate to strong winds over the marine area could create hazardous conditions for small craft Friday night into Saturday.

- The rip current risk will steadily increase Friday into Saturday, potentially becoming a High risk for life threatening rip currents Friday night into Saturday.

- A low end threat for strong to severe thunderstorms is possible from near daybreak Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon for much of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Happy New Year! The new year brings a steady warming trend to round out the rest of the week. Afternoon highs warm into the middle 60's for most locations today after starting off the morning in the lower to middle 30's. Temperatures tonight into Friday morning will be about 10 degrees warmer falling into the lower to middle 40's. Highs similarly warm for Friday as we get into the lower 70's for most locations. Our next impactful system begins approaching the area from the west which will allow for some isolated warm advection showers to begin developing Friday afternoon, mainly west of the I-65 corridor.

Friday night into Saturday will feature the highest rain and thunderstorm chances as a surface low develops and tracks across the gulf coast states. Models have continued to uptrend anticipated low level moisture and likewise instability and the trough has trended overall slower. Throughout early Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon around 50 knots of deep layer shear will be present with instability steadily building to near 1,500 j/kg of MLCAPE during the day Saturday. While surface winds gradually veer with time, latest CAMS that are getting into range suggest that there will continue to be at least modest low level curvature of hodographs with around 100 to 150 m2/s2 of sfc-1km SRH. Weak storm relative inflow around 25 knots would support mini spinnies, and when considering the potential for robust 3CAPE values exceeding 150j/kg I can't rule out a brief tornado potential with any storm. Given the time of year we have a fairly cold thermodynamic profile aloft with steep lapse rates and low freezing heights. The weak storm relative inflow and straighter deep layer shear profiles along with ample CAPE within the hail growth zone could support large hail potential with any of the most robust storms. Strong to damaging wind gusts could be possible as well given the somewhat drier mid level profiles.

At this point the CAMS that are within range are most enthused about the convection associated with the cold front itself. Regardless, even earlier in the day as modest difluence aloft overspreads the area at least a low end threat for severe storms exists, with perhaps the best threat existing along the cold front heading into the afternoon hours. There's still a good bit of variance throughout the deterministic and ensemble guidance on the exact forward speed of the trough and trough amplitude, which makes it difficult to fine tune the most favorable period of time for strong to severe storms. At this point, there remains the signal for isolated strong to severe storms early Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon with the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado.

In the wake of the cold front we quickly dry out and can expect afternoon highs to only get knocked down Sunday into the upper 50's to middle 60's with lower to middle 70's returning by early to mid next week. Overnight lows bottom out in the upper 30's to lower 40's Sunday night, rebounding into the upper 40's and lower 50's by Tuesday night. A Low risk of rip currents presently exists across area beaches of southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, with the threat increasing to a Moderate risk by Friday and a High risk by late Friday night into Saturday. The rip current risk will likely diminish quickly in the wake of a cold front late Saturday, likely becoming a Moderate risk by Saturday night and a Low risk for Sunday. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions with southwest to south winds 5 to 10 knots expected. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Light to moderate northwesterly to westerly winds continue today. A southwesterly flow develops late tonight and strengthens through Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for a majority of the marine waters Friday night into Saturday. Winds shift out of the northwest late Saturday as a cold front moves through. The offshore flow diminishes on Sunday then becomes southeasterly on Monday. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 48 72 61 / 0 0 20 80 Pensacola 66 53 71 63 / 0 0 10 80 Destin 64 54 70 63 / 0 0 10 80 Evergreen 66 42 73 58 / 0 0 20 90 Waynesboro 67 44 71 58 / 0 0 30 80 Camden 65 43 69 57 / 0 0 30 90 Crestview 66 43 72 58 / 0 0 10 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.