textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- A few waterspouts possible over the marine area during late night and morning showers and storms.

- Heat indices continue to be in the 100 to 107 range into the holiday weekend.

- Precipitation chances increase over the holiday weekend, especially for Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

03.12Z upper air maps continue to show a well defined low to mid level ridge of high pressure axis centered from the TN/OH River Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic. The local area is however on the southern periphery of this ridge where there is a path for mid level impulses caught up in the easterlies to make west northwest passage across the local area in the near-term which would provide a contribution to ascent as instability increases through the afternoon. An assessment of deep layer moisture shows areas primarily east of I-65 in lower PWAT values (ranging 1.3 to 1.5") while areas west of I-65 reflect better moisture profiles (PWAT's 1.6 to 1.8"). Surface wind field is very weak and highly variable in direction. Deep layer shear is non-existent. Appears the better chances of afternoon showers and storms would be across western portions of the Gulf coast, up across southeast MS focused along a weakly defined surface trof/sea-breeze. At this time, the risk of severe weather is low with a general storm outlook by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) but can't rule out a strong storm here and there with brief strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy, short duration rainfall. The upper ridge to our north begins to weaken heading into the 4th of July Holiday weekend while at the same time shifting eastward to off the southeast U.S coast. There are indications that a mid-level trof/weakness in the height field sets up over the Lower MS River Valley through the course of the day Saturday and continues in place Sunday. This pattern looks to hold at least into the first half of next week. This suggests a transition to a more unsettled weather pattern with rain chances trending up as deep layer moisture shows recovery, reaching 1.9-2.1" by Sunday which looks to persist into next week. Saturday, forecasters anticipate a typical summertime convective mode with isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms developing mostly south of U.S. Hwy 84, and focused along the sea breeze and resultant outflow boundaries. Sunday through Friday, a summertime diurnal pattern in rain chances with the higher PoPs looking to be evolving over the land areas each day, lowering at night. The better PoPs flipping to coastal waters at night.

Little change in daily highs/lows. 4th of July weekend highs range 91 to 96 interior, 89 to 93 coast. Going into next week, highs look to be tempered somewhat by the better rain chances, in the lower half of the 90's. Low temperatures through the period 73 to 77 interior. Much more muggy across the immediate coast/beaches with lows ranging 78 to perhaps around 81 in spots. Heat index values continue to be just below Heat Advisory threshold of 108-112, with maximum values of 100-107 for much of the area through early next week. As a more dominant southwesterly low level flow sets up each day, the increase in surface based moisture/dewpoints may put heat indices above Heat Advisory criteria at some point middle to late next week. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This afternoon's forecast will be highly dependent upon mesoscale processes which are difficult to predict in patterns with very weak shear which exist today. Increased deep layer moisture within the continued weak easterly flow has allowed for the development of isolated storms late this morning along both apparent convective outflow boundaries and a developing sea breeze boundary near the coast. The very weak shear will result in erratic movement of outflow boundaries most likely driven by convective cold pools which will support these boundaries spreading out away from storms in all directions driven strictly by storm outflows. This makes pinpointing areas of highest storm potential impacts at single TAF points difficult beyond the very near term period. Therefore have attempted to identify the mostly likely TAF locations to be impacted early this afternoon with tempos and then covered the remainder of the potential with prob30. It appears that in the very near term, the most likely terminal to be impacted within the next hour with temporary reductions in visibility and ceilings will be at KBFM as a collapsing storm near Spanish Fort/Daphne sends an outflow boundary west into a moderately unstable airmass which could favor new storm initiation. Brief gusty winds may also accompany any storm.

At the remainder of the TAF sites expect mainly light south to southeast winds away from any storm outflows along with isolated to low end scattered storms possible through this afternoon into early evening with brief reductions in visibility and ceilings to MVFR. Any storms that remain early this evening should quickly dissipate after sunset with skies clearing. Winds should become light and variable overnight. A similar weather pattern will be in place with mainly diurnal convection again possible near the immediate coast around sunrise Saturday with the offshore land breeze and increasing potential further inland across the coastal counties along the sea breeze and any residual convective outflow boundaries. /JLH

MARINE

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds, waves and seas possible near thunderstorms. May see some waterspout activity during late night/morning shower and storm activity especially near the coast and area bays/sounds. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 95 75 93 / 0 20 0 30 Pensacola 79 95 79 93 / 0 10 0 20 Destin 80 93 80 91 / 0 10 10 10 Evergreen 73 95 73 94 / 0 20 10 50 Waynesboro 75 96 75 94 / 10 10 10 70 Camden 75 93 75 91 / 0 10 10 60 Crestview 74 97 74 94 / 0 30 10 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.