textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 653 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday. A few strong storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

- High temperatures trend to the mid to upper 90s going into early next week with heat indices ranging from 100-107 degrees, locally higher.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 452 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

With the current convection over the forecast area likely to last into the early evening hours, have bumped PoPs up over the area a bit. No other changes made. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Through Wednesday...A mean upper trough over the Southeast and Tennessee River Valley moves off as upper level high pressure moves over the regions early in the coming week. A drier airmass moves over the Southeast behind the shifting upper trough, with the axis of higher moisture levels shifting south and east of the forecast area in response. A surface ridge developing along the Appalachians beginning Tuesday brings dry northeasterly flow to the eastern half of the Southeast, with significantly drier airmass moving over the forecast area mid week. Mid week, an upper level low begins to move south along the eastern edge of the upper high, beginning to weaken the influence of the upper high over the Southeast. Rain chances become more coastally based Monday. Any convection has a possibility of strong to marginally severe storms this weekend, with MLCapes in the 2000-2500J/kg and DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg ranges.

With the advancing upper subsidence, temperatures rise to well above seasonal norms into the coming week. Mid to upper 90s return for Monday and Tuesday, but a bit of a downtick for Wednesday as the northeasterly flow is also a bit cooler. The shifting moisture levels will help to temper Heat Indices going to the coming week, though. Even so, 100-107F, locally higher, values are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are expected through the short term.

Wednesday night on, a surface ridge that develops along the eastern side of the Appalachians continues to move drier and somewhat cooler air over the Southeast into the end of the week. Guidance continues to advertise the closed upper low moving west over the northern Gulf. Rain chances the rest of the week over land areas are limited with the drier air. PoPs remain over the Gulf, with moisture levels remaining high over the Gulf, though as the upper low moves southwest of the forecast area in the coming weekend, onshore flow returns with moisture levels, and PoPs by the end of the forecast. This upper low does bring increased cloud cover, dropping temperatures closer to, but a still a bit above, seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low Risk is expected through the weekend into the coming week. A more organized, moderate to strong easterly flow will bring an increased swell to area beaches beginning mid week, along with a Moderate to High Rip Risk to area beaches. /16

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms moving toward the coast will diminish by 01-02Z, though outflow could produce a brief northerly wind shift at the Mobile TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail through the period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon (10-20% chance), mainly near the coast and parts of southeast MS. There is also a low chance (<30%) of isolated patchy fog north of I-10 late tonight. Visibility reductions to MVFR or briefly lower will be possible with any of this activity. Light and variable winds tonight will become northerly in the morning, turning generally southerly to southwesterly during the afternoon at around 5-10 knots over coastal counties. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An upper high moving over the Tennessee River Valley/Southeast will shift a surface high over the northern Gulf, bringing a more variable flow to area waters early in the coming week. A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians through the coming week, bringing a tighter gradient over area waters and a moderate easterly flow to protected waters, with moderate to strong flow over open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is expected mid week. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 94 74 93 / 20 20 0 10 Pensacola 77 93 77 92 / 10 10 0 10 Destin 77 92 78 92 / 10 10 0 10 Evergreen 71 96 71 96 / 20 10 0 0 Waynesboro 72 98 72 97 / 10 10 0 0 Camden 72 97 72 96 / 10 10 0 0 Crestview 72 94 72 94 / 20 10 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.