textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought will exacerbate wildfire activity.

- Rain chances increase tonight with the passage of a cold front, but rainfall totals will be low with no improvement to the drought conditions.

- Strong marine winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft from late tonight into early Monday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Now through Saturday...

Through Tuesday, a deep upper trough moving over the northern Conus shifts an upper ridge over the Gulf southwestward through the weekend, with a cold front crossing the forecast area tonight into early Sunday morning in response. Precipitable h20 levels have risen around 1.6" as the front passes tonight into Sunday. Enough instability is present for a few thunderstorms to mix in, though no strong storms are expected. Rainfall amounts are expected to be highest west of the Alabama River as isentropic upglide created rainfall follows the frontal passage. Even so, no drastic changes to drought conditions over the forecast area are expected. By Monday night, the upper trough has shifted to off the East Coast. Temperatures through this period rise from around 70 today to the 79 to 84 degree range by Tuesday. Low temperatures rise from the mid 40s to around 50 Sunday night to the mid 50s to around 60 by Tuesday night. Wednesday through Saturday, an upper ridge builds north over the Plains, then shifts east through the latter half of the week. An upper level shortwave trough passes over the Southeast ahead of the ridge mid week, but with marginal moisture return as onshore flow returns Tuesday, PoPs remain low. Temperatures quickly rise back to above seasonal norms by the end of the week.

Onshore flow shifts to offshore Sunday, keeping the Rip Risk low into the coming week. The return of onshore flow mid week will bring back increased swell to area beaches and a rise in the Rip Current risk to Moderate to High the latter half of the week. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A cold front currently moving southeast across the area will move off the coast by daybreak. Surface winds will shift northwesterly and then northerly in the wake of the front with sustained winds around 15 knots gusting to around 25 knots. Ceilings will lower to mostly MVFR levels along and behind the front. Scattered to numerous light showers with an occasional brief moderate shower and an isolated thunderstorm will move eastward through the area overnight into Sunday. Local drops to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible with the moderate showers. Any convection is expected to exit our area by mid morning. /22

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Light southerly to southwesterly flow through this evening will shift to a strong offshore flow late tonight into Sunday as a cold front passes through the region. This offshore flow will decrease to moderate across the bays and sounds by early Sunday afternoon, but remain strong over the Gulf through at least Monday morning. A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow follows through midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area. With drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect for Monday and Tuesday. Also, a Fire Alert has been issued for Alabama. Most of the ingredients for a Red Flag Watch/Warning are present, but not all. Will let day shift continue, with coordination with relevant fire weather folks on any WWAs needed. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 49 80 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 53 79 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 54 77 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 43 80 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 44 78 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 45 77 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 45 81 47 83 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.