textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 455 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Cold temperatures are expected tonight and again over the weekend through the middle of next week, with sub-freezing low temperatures occurring across much of the area. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Tuesday night as wind chills fall into the upper teens to middle 20s.

- The probability trend of wintry precipitation for a portion of the area after midnight Saturday night into Sunday morning has remained unchanged.

- Moderate to strong northerly winds will occur over the marine area Saturday night and Sunday, creating hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Synopsis...There remains timing differences in the overall synoptic patterns between the models going into the weekend, and some meso-scale differences as well. The GFS is faster with the upper trough as it transitions from a positive tilt west of the Mississippi River to more neutral and it enters into our region. The latest GFS run has the axis of the trough over eastern Mississippi around 6 AM Sunday, the ECWMF lagging about 3 hours behind the GFS, and NAM12 lagging way behind the GFS by about 8 hours. At least there is agreement with the strength of this medium amplified trough. Unlike last year, this event does not have near the setup for the potential of heavy snow as this will be a quick hitting system. On top of that, temperatures will play a major role as highs maximize in the middle 50s to lower 60s on Saturday, with temperatures remaining above freezing until midnight far inland, and until late Saturday night along and north of I-10 behind a cold front passing through. While there could be some dynamic cooling effects as the precipitation aloft falls through a somewhat dry boundary layer thanks to a surface ridge off to our east, we will have to wait a bit longer until we have a peek at the Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) to get a better idea. As a result, confidence in where (and if) there are impacts to travel remains low at this time, and no major adjustment in the trend was made from the previous forecast.

Wintry Precipitation Hazards...The best time frame for the potential of wintry-type mixed precipitation looks to occur after midnight Saturday night going into early Sunday. That we know. What we don't know is if this precipitation will transition to all snow at some point by late Saturday night, and if a brief deformation zone develops resulting in a localized band of 1-2 inches. If this occurs, the most likely area would be along and east of the I-65 corridor (aka, south central Alabama and interior northwest Florida). With clouds clearing by mid-morning Sunday, surface heating will allow the temperatures to rise to between 40 to 45 degrees by noon, so any snow on the ground should quickly melt throughout the day. With relative humidity dropping into the 30s Sunday afternoon, this will be sufficient to dry up the roads, so we are not expecting any icy road conditions Sunday night.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 24 to 29 degrees interior areas, with lower 30s along the immediate coast. High temperatures Friday will be 2-6 degrees above normal in the lower to middle 60s. Cold temperatures are expected over the weekend through the middle of next week, with sub-freezing low temperatures occurring across much of the area. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Tuesday night as wind chills fall into the upper teens to middle 20s.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through Friday afternoon, briefly becoming MODERATE Friday night for the Florida beaches. A LOW risk of rip currents will follow over the weekend through early next week. /22

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 458 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Winds become light and variable this evening, then a south to southwest flow around 10 knots on Friday. /29

MARINE

Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A Small Craft Advisory may be required Saturday night through at least noon on Sunday as a moderate to strong northerly flow returns behind the next cold front. Prior to the arrival of the front, mariners operating small craft over southern Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound and Gulf Waters should exercise caution Friday afternoon through Friday night. Behind the front, a light to occasional moderate offshore flow will follow through Monday night. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 30 64 47 57 / 0 0 30 20 Pensacola 34 63 52 60 / 0 0 30 30 Destin 35 63 52 62 / 0 0 30 30 Evergreen 24 64 43 57 / 0 0 40 20 Waynesboro 27 64 39 53 / 0 0 50 10 Camden 25 61 42 53 / 0 0 50 10 Crestview 23 62 46 60 / 0 0 20 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.