textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1232 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the week.

- Fog development is possible each night this week, especially the middle to latter part of the week. Fog could become dense in spots.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Now through Tuesday...

An upper level ridge builds north over the eastern Conus into mid week, then shifts east, becoming an upper high centered over the northern Caribbean by the coming weekend. A surface ridge builds west over the Southeast into midweek in response, bringing a more organized onshore flow to the northern Gulf coast. Strongest onshore flow is indicated to be over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Deep layer moisture return is indicated to be limited over the western half of the Southeast until the upper ridge shifts east of the Eastern Seaboard. Even then, deep layer precipitable h20 values generally remain in the 1.1"-1.3" range in most of the guidance through mid week. Models soundings show good moisture return below 10k', so nightly fog or stratus development is expected through the week. Will need to monitor for dense fog developing, with the stronger flow above the surface leading to a struggle between stratus or fog development. Guidance is indicating the influx of deep moisture shifting eastward from the Lower Mississippi River Valley in the latter half of the week, bringing rain back to mainly western and northwestern half of the forecast area, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the end of the week.

Over the weekend into the coming week, the Caribbean upper ridge breaks down as a series of shortwaves move over the eastern Conus. A weak surface front moves south over the Southeast, stalling between the I-20 and I-10 corridors. Guidance is indicating moisture levels rising to around 1.5"-1.7" for the weekend. This front will provide the focus for convection, mainly over northwestern and northern portions of the forecast area. With instability on the increase, more rumblers are expected with the uptick in convection. Wind shear at all levels remains best well west and north of the forecast area. At this time, enough instability nor wind shear for strong to severe storms is not indicated, but will need to monitor, especially if winds increase.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will bring temperatures well above seasonal norms. Highs in the low to mid 80s, upper 70s along the coast, are expected through the coming weekend. A drop in high temperatures occurs in the coming week as the subsidence eases a but, but otherwise remain well above seasonal norms. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to near 60 tonight rise into the mid to upper 60s for the weekend.

Persistent onshore flow increasing onshore swell will be counter balanced by a decreasing tidal cycle through mid week, keeping the risk of dangerous Rip Currents at a Low to Moderate level this week. As the tidal cycle begins to increase at the end of the week though the weekend, the risk of Rip Currents rises to Moderate to High in response. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through the afternoon, followed by IFR or lower ceilings returning after sunset, spreading inland from the coast. Patchy fog may also develop through the overnight hours, which may become dense in spots. Greatest coverage of IFR or lower conditions will likely be over coastal areas and southwest Alabama. Any fog should lift shortly after sunrise, but ceilings are likely to remain at IFR levels through much of the morning. MVFR ceilings will likely return by late morning and the early afternoon. Winds remain southeasterly around 10-15 knots today, decreasing to a light east-southeasterly flow tonight. JGC/MM

MARINE

Issued at 1227 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A surface ridge building west over the Southeast will bring a general light to moderate southeast to south flow to area waters through the week into the weekend. Surface front moving over the Southeast over the weekend into the coming week will disrupt the surface ridge over the Southeast, easing the onshore flow over area waters to a more general light. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 57 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 58 74 62 75 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 59 72 61 72 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 53 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 57 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 55 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 20 Crestview 53 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.