textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 - High risk of rip currents will continue for the Alabama and western Florida Panhandle beaches through Friday afternoon.

- Heat builds over the weekend into early next week and Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat warnings will likely become necessary.

UPDATE

Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Performed a gridded forecast update for tonight going into tomorrow to aligning obs/trends with short-range guidance. Overall, the forecast remains on track with a mainly clear/calm night ahead and a nice day tomorrow. Only few adjustments were taking into consideration with a small adjustment to Td's from 18-00Z to account for a deeper PBL mixing regime provided model soundings indicating a relatively deep mixed layer which could temporarily drop dewpoints somewhat revealing max heat indices in the 102-105 range. Otherwise, high sfc high pressure builds in tomorrow to help suppress afternoon rain/storm chances albeit plenty of sfc heating/destabilization. Can't rule out a rogue shower or two where outflow boundaries collide helping to overcome tropospheric suppression by small-scale low-level forcing, but will be a very low risk. Additionally, adjusted winds to reveal a more realistic seabreeze regime in the afternoon blending the NBM/HRRR from 18-00Z. Will dive deeper with the main forecast package later this evening. KLG

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The high surf conditions along the area beaches continue to slowly subside and we expect breakers in the 3-4 foot range by late this afternoon. Therefore, the High Surf Warning will be allowed to expire at 300 pm. The 12z rip current probability guidance is showing the High Risk of rip currents for the western Florida Panhandle beaches extending into Friday. Guidance is also showing a high-end Moderate Risk for the Alabama beaches east of Fort Morgan. Therefore, we will be update the Coastal Hazard Message at the top of the hour to extend the rip current threat.

Isolated to scattered late afternoon/early evening showers and perhaps a storm or two across our southeast Mississippi zones and north of Highway-84 should dissipate by midnight. Dry conditions will follow through mid-afternoon Friday, with a reemergence of isolated late afternoon/early evening showers and storms occurring north of Highway-84 as an ridge resides in the upper levels. By Saturday, isolated to scattered showers and storms over south central Alabama into northwest Florida are expected as the upper ridge gets nudged westward over the weekend as an upper trough digs southward just off the eastern seaboard. Dry conditions should return area-wide through early next week as the upper ridge to our west rebuilds over the region. The Heat Miser returns for a weekend visit and will most definitely extend his stay through midweek as temperatures increase to well above normal. High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s with apparent temperatures (heat indices) between 100-107 degrees are expected over the weekend. For the hottest days (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) we are forecasting highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s inland (middle 90s along the coast) with apparent temperatures between 105-112 degrees. The ambient highs are about 5-10 degrees above normal. There will be no overnight relief from the heat as lows Saturday night will be around 5 degrees above normal, increasing to 7-9 degrees above normal by Tuesday night. /22

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast tonight through tomorrow. Only item of note is a brief increase/uptick in southerly winds for terminals following a seabreeze passage tomorrow generally form 18-00Z, but overall not expecting any significant impacts. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A light southerly flow will become variable tonight through Friday morning as surface high pressure settles across the area. A light onshore flow will resume Friday afternoon shifting westerly in the evening and then northwesterly late Friday night into Saturday. A more established light to moderate westerly flow will occur over the weekend as a surface ridge sets up across the Gulf. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 95 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 76 93 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 Destin 77 91 78 93 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 71 94 73 94 / 0 0 10 20 Waynesboro 74 96 75 97 / 0 0 10 10 Camden 74 92 75 92 / 0 10 20 20 Crestview 71 97 73 97 / 0 0 10 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.