textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026 - A cold front moves across the area today, with several reinforcing shots of cool, dry air through the weekend.

- A frost/freeze is possible across portions of the area each night Friday through at least Sunday.

- Increased marine winds and seas are expected behind the cold front. A stronger surge of easterly winds remain possible early next week with the potential for advisory conditions and/or gale-force gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Dry weather conditions prevail through the weekend. A cold front pushes across the area today, ushering in cooler, drier air to the region with several reinforcing shots of cool/dry air through the weekend. The coldest temperatures of the season so far are likely Friday night through Sunday night, with coldest overnight temperatures near or below freezing over the interior portions of the area. Elsewhere middle to upper 30's can be expected for overnight lows. Frost/Freeze products will likely be needed in future forecast packages for the late week into weekend timeframe.

Once we get into early next week the forecast gets a bit more complex as a shortwave trough embedded within the subtropical jet transits the southern gulf coast states. Right now it seems things have trended towards keeping this a bit more suppressed, and in combination with a transient shortwave ahead of it moisture return will likely be limited. This would help temper rain chances overall for the area. Still a lot to fine tune in the coming days, but the trend right now is towards a bit drier scenario for early next week. Regardless, a strong surface pressure gradient will set up as high pressure settles into the eastern CONUS and a surface low pressure system tracks across the northern gulf, bringing gusty winds to at least the coastal counties Monday into Tuesday. The rip current risk remains low through the weekend, quickly increasing to a High risk by early next week as strong winds settle in and surf rapidly builds. It's still early at the moment to pinpoint specifics, but a High Surf Advisory or Warning may be needed for the Monday into Tuesday timeframe if the current forecast holds. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with generally northwesterly winds around 5-10 knots. A few gusts to around 15-20 knots possible this afternoon. JGC/98

MARINE

Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Periods of moderate to strong offshore flow develop today through the weekend behind a cold front moving across the marine waters later today. Strong easterly flow becomes established early next week with advisory level conditions expected and a low-end potential for gusts to gale force. Seas build to greater than 7 feet across the near and offshore Gulf waters in response to the strengthening winds early next week. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 45 65 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 50 65 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 53 65 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 40 60 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 39 61 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 40 57 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 42 63 35 58 / 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.