textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Through Thursday Night...

The upper ridge building over the southeast states will persist through the near term, and so we will continue see a diurnal convective pattern with likely showers and thunderstorms to occur both afternoons. The environment today for strong thunderstorm development will struggle to recover from yesterday's widespread convective activity, and limited insolation due to a mix of low, mid, and high clouds. We are anticipating much lower afternoon MLCAPE values to range from 1,000 to 1,500j/kg, along with lower mid-level lapse rates, so only general thunderstorms are expected. For Thursday afternoon, MLCAPE values should range from 2,000 to 2,500j/kg, so we may see a return of a few stronger pulse-type storms with gusty surface winds up to 40 mph. A LOW Rip Current Risk will continue for those heading to the beaches.

High temperatures today and Thursday will range from 87 to 92 degrees, with apparent temperatures (heat indices) on Thursday in upper 90s to lower 100s. Low temperatures tonight should be between 69 to 72 degrees inland, middle 70s along the coast, and upper 70s at the beaches and barrier islands. /22

Friday Through Tuesday...

The unsettled summer like pattern looks to prevail through the weekend with broad southwesterly flow across the area. An upper level low will likely get squished between two large highs in an omega block over Texas keeping us on the soggy east side through early next week. Given the lack of any significant surface features, the pattern will represent a more normal summertime pattern with storms developing along the advancing seabreeze and remnant boundaries from the day priors storms. Storms will likely be a little more widespread than a typical summer day however, as some upper shortwave troughs will likely progress through the southwesterly flow and the presence of the weak upper level low centered to our west. PWATS will be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range each day allowing for efficient rain processes with any storms. While a more focused heavy rainfall event doesn't look likely, continued rounds of rain throughout the week could result in localized flash flooding if storms are able to sit in the same spot long enough. By the middle to end of next week, we will steadily transition back into a more standard summertime pattern as ridging slowly builds back over the southeast and the upper low lifts out into the Great Lakes. Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side with highs in the 90s and with all the moisture, do not expect any relief from the mugginess this week. BB/8

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the night before scattered showers and thunderstorms develop along the immediate coastline by day break. Localized reductions in visibility will be possible during the morning with VFR being the prevailing conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon along the I-10 corridor and drift inland by late afternoon into the early evening. MVFR to IFR visbys and cigs will be possible in the vicinity of any storms. Winds will be light out of the south-southwest. Storms should subside by midnight giving way to VFR conditions. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

No impacts to small craft are expected other than the typical periods of locally higher winds/seas and reduced visibility in and near thunderstorms. In addition, there remains a small chance of waterspouts during the early morning hours near the coast. Otherwise, expect a light southeasterly to southerly flow through the remainder of the week to shift southwesterly on Sunday. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 88 72 89 74 88 74 89 74 / 70 30 70 20 80 30 90 30 Pensacola 87 76 88 78 87 78 87 78 / 70 30 60 30 80 50 90 40 Destin 89 78 89 79 88 79 88 79 / 70 30 50 30 80 50 90 50 Evergreen 89 70 91 71 90 71 91 72 / 70 20 70 20 80 20 80 20 Waynesboro 90 69 90 70 89 71 91 72 / 60 20 70 20 80 20 80 20 Camden 87 69 88 70 88 71 88 72 / 60 20 60 30 70 20 80 20 Crestview 90 70 92 71 90 72 89 72 / 80 30 60 20 90 30 90 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.