textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 651 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 - High risk of rip currents continues through this afternoon for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Heat builds through the weekend and into early next week with some locations nearing or breaking daily record highs. Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be necessary for portions of the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

No significant changes needed to the forecast this morning as it remains on track.

Light, patchy fog has briefly settled into a few spots across south-central Alabama and northwest Florida this morning. There is not an overwhelming signal that dense fog will be an issue for tomorrow morning, however, there could be some light, patchy fog again right around sunrise in a few spots. 07/mb

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

There is a High Risk for rip currents that will continue today for AL and FL beaches, through 6PM CT, with the risk lowering going into the upcoming weekend.

Overall quiet tonight as what is left of Bertha has fully departed now into south Texas and high pressure begins to build into the area. Temperatures on track with no adjustments from NBM needed through tomorrow morning. The nearby proximity of the surface high and attendant tropospheric suppression over nearby marine areas, coupled with strong differential land/water heating and weak 0-1km mean winds will support the development of a well- defined seabreeze tomorrow. Could become gusty at times over the Emerald coast in the afternoon. Meanwhile aloft, we're in control of a broad ridge across generally the southern US, with a corridor of enhanced/anomalously high PW remaining "attached" from previously Bertha, northeast into the Tennessee Valley/Mid-Atlatic region along a stationary sfc front. This corridor of enhanced tropospheric moisture will bleed into northern areas later today, supplying a bit better potential for diurnally-forced showers/ isolated storms as recent HRRR trends have been depicting. Not anticipating anything impactful, but did introduce at least a mention of an isolated shower/storm from 18-00Z along/north of the US84 corridor across northern areas. Additionally, will monitor the northward advancement of the seabreeze if that could locally enhance sfc to low-level confluence and "squeeze" out an isolated shower or two where boundary interactions+ sfc heating overcomes the large- scale suppression at work. But overall, a nice day!

Quiet Friday night, then the ridge in control of the region begins to nudge west some, and deepen centered over the four corners region. What this does is attempts to place our local area on the eastern periphery of the ridge, introducing northerly upper-level flow within a broad weakness over the SE US. This will need to be watched, as long-range guidance hints at a few PVA/impulses riding the ridge from the NNW through the SSE. This has a tendency to produce some type of upstream thunderstorm complex, whether it remains messy or cold pools to develop something more organized that surges south into the northern Gulf remains to be seen, but will all depend on how strong/numerous upstream convection can become. Experience has shown northerly flow can throw some surprises in some gusty strong, to isolated severe thunderstorms as entrainment supports strong downward transport. This risk would be even more realized if any complex can become more organized, but that is low confidence for now. The NBM did jump up with PoPs from the latest 01Z run compared to the 13Z with the last forecast package during the day on Thursday. This is as CAMs are coming into somewhat better agreement in coverage potential, again, just will need to watch if it can become organized into some outflow- dominant complex that surges south. No adjustments needed here as guidance appears meteorologically plausible in this type of pattern.

Sunday into next week the main story focuses on the building heat. Took some time here to look closely at guidance, particularly cluster analysis and ECMWF/NAEFS shift-of-tails and EFI. Without getting too in the weeds (but don't mind me, I still will), there are some interesting nudgers into this being a pretty notable period of what could be the hottest temperatures we've seen so far this summer for some areas. EFI/Shift-Of-Tails from the ECMWF hints at the most positive/anomalous MaxT potential (namely Tuesday) to support greater risk of highs reaching near, or perhaps surpassing record highs in a few locations. Took a glance at records, and they vary, but be aware what we have in the forecast currently does break a few station records (most of them in the upper 90's to lower 100's). The corridor of hottest temperatures will likely be across MS but will bleed into western AL counties/FL Panhandle where several lower 100's could very well be possible early to middle parts of next week (especially MS). Cluster analysis remains rather persistent amongst CMC, EPS and GEFS ensembles in regards to the ridge strength/position, so overall confidence of a distinct period of excessive temperatures continues to increase.

Now as far as the excessive heat risk with dangerous heat indices, first and foremost, yes, it will be very hot with heat indices in the 108-112+ range. However, without getting too cute, the NBM is likely not taking into account the degree of daily afternoon PBL mixing, meaning forecast dewpoints could be a tad too high each day and what we realize could be a few degrees lower each afternoon, revealing more realistic forecast max heat indices. I don't want to focus too much on this as it does not, and should not take away from the impacts expected. Whether we hit heat indices of 110 or 115, it doesn't matter, this type of heat will be dangerous for those outdoors for extended periods. We will continue to increase heat precautionary messaging in the coming days so the public is aware, and prepares accordingly.

Will make a small note about mid/late-week, as we begin to see the SE US weakness expand more in size, allowing for stronger NW flow to build into the region. This could distinctly aid in more numerous, mainly afternoon/evening shower/storm risks each day, with some potential waves of a few strong/isolated severe at times. Outside of any shower/storm activity, it'll still be hot with oppressive heat expected to continue but could back down some late-week. KLG

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the TAF cycle. Winds turn southerly to south-southwesterly by this afternoon with a slight uptick in the winds to around 10 knots. Light and variable winds expected after sunset. 07/mb

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Nearby high pressure will continue to promote mainly light onshore flow today and Saturday, but a more established westerly, moderate flow builds early next-week ranging 10-15kts at times. Waves/seas will remain light to calm through the forecast period. KLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 95 74 97 76 / 0 0 30 10 Pensacola 93 77 95 79 / 0 0 30 10 Destin 92 79 93 80 / 0 0 30 10 Evergreen 94 73 93 72 / 10 10 30 20 Waynesboro 96 75 96 75 / 10 10 20 10 Camden 91 75 91 75 / 20 20 30 20 Crestview 97 74 97 75 / 0 10 40 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.