textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Wind chills fall into the teens to low 20s by sunrise and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 9am. Very cold temperatures are expected again tonight.

- Gusty conditions are expected through this morning area-wide. Strong winds over the marine area will create hazardous conditions for small craft today with gale conditions over the offshore Gulf waters through mid-morning.

- There has been an increasing trend in the probability of wintry precipitation for a portion of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

The area begins to dry out overnight as the cold rain showers finally exited our Florida panhandle counties just before midnight. Buckle up because it's only downhill from here (speaking only about the temperatures) as we quickly take a nose dive into the mid to upper 20s across inland counties with 30s across the coastal counties by sunrise. Northerly winds will remain gusty overnight and into the morning hours as the pressure gradient tightens between the exiting cold front and approaching surface high. Given these gusty conditions, temperatures will feel much colder with a wind chill in the teens across inland counties and low to mid 20s across the coastal counties in the pre-dawn hours this morning. These apparent temperatures are what prompted a Cold Weather Advisory which continues through 9am. Daytime temperatures won't be much better with highs only reaching into the 40s for most spots today. The aforementioned surface high slides east through the day and moves overhead as we roll into the overnight hours. While this will lead to even colder temperatures by sunrise on Friday, it also means that the winds will be light, so the wind chill will not be as big of an factor and thus we will not need a Cold Weather Advisory for Friday morning.

The roller coaster of weather and temperatures continues as we roll into Friday. The surface high slides further to our east and winds turn southerly allowing temperatures to briefly rebound into the 60s. Soak up the mild temperatures and weather while you can on Friday because it doesn't last long. Rain showers are possible late Friday night into early Saturday ahead of yet another cold front. Moisture return ahead of the front isn't overwhelmingly high with PWATs hovering around 0.6-0.8 inches overnight. Any precipitation that does fall will be in the form of cold rain - nothing wintry with this round of precipitation. Saturday currently looks to be dry in the wake of the front for much of the area. That said, there are some signs in the guidance that the front may not fully push across the area and may stay draped from southwest to northeast across the Gulf waters just to our south. Temperatures will still manage to rise into the 50s and 60s during the day on Saturday.

All eyes turn to the Saturday night into Sunday morning timeframe. Saturday night is NOT an easy forecast. The secondary front comes crashing into the area and with it comes the potential for precipitation. A LOT of key components need to lock in place for us to get measurable snow across our area and while there are some favorable conditions (ample lift and cold air), there are also a few components that we are missing/watching closely. Precipitation will begin as rain on Saturday night because, as you will recall, temperatures rebound into the 50s and 60s ahead of this front and it will take some time for those temperatures to plunge into the 20s and 30s overnight. From there, there are two general scenarios that could play out (there are more than two, but these seem like our best options). Scenario A - A brief round of rain showers ahead of the cold temperatures as the precipitation shield outruns the incoming cold. Scenario B - The cold temperatures come crashing into the area overnight alongside the precipitation shield leading to snow. I could see either scenario happening and while the deterministic guidance is certainly leaning heavily toward the second scenario, I wouldn't discount the first scenario quite yet. We'll have a better handle on snow versus rain once the high- resolution model guidance starts to come in.

*IF* and that's a big if, snow does fall in our area overnight Saturday into early Sunday, the eastern half of our area (south- central Alabama and interior northwest Florida) have the best chance for accumulations. There's a big caveat here because, again, the high temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s during the day on Saturday, so there's a decent chance that any snow that falls will struggle (at first) to accumulate given that prior warmth. The surface wet bulb may also be too warm for significant snowfall accumulation (note that a few degrees will mean all the difference in the world here).

Now that the caveats and scenarios are out of the way, it's worth mentioning that the probabilities for accumulating snow (anything greater than 0.01 inches) have jumped significantly in comparison to last nights guidance - eyebrow raising for sure. The probability of seeing a trace or more of snow on last night's runs hovered around 10-15% across a portion of the area...and on tonight's runs, we're now looking at around 40% probability of a trace of snow across the area. While we currently have accumulating snowfall in our forecast, it's generally less than an inch and that amount *should be taken with a grain of salt*. It's very difficult to narrow down favorable locations and timing for wintry precipitation this far out in time, let alone accumulation...and this assumes we even get snow and the precipitation shield doesn't play tricks on us and decides to outrun the bitter cold air. I could write a novel on all the scenarios and how this could or could not pan out, but for the sake of time, I'll leave you with this - it might snow, it might not. Please keep an eye out for our upcoming forecasts as we continue to refine what we know and what we don't know regarding this potential event.

The area dries out on Sunday and temperatures rebound into the 40s and 50s late in the weekend through the middle of next week.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through for our Alabama beaches with a brief bump to a MODERATE risk across the Florida panhandle beaches Friday night. 07/mb

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Northerly to northwesterly winds at around 10-15 knots, with higher gusts up to 25 knots, will continue through the afternoon hours. Winds tonight become light and variable. /96

MARINE

Issued at 139 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Offshore flow increases through the morning behind a cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected continue through much of the day with gale conditions over the offshore waters through mid-morning. Offshore flow gradually decreases this afternoon through the overnight. A light onshore flow develops on Friday before turning northwesterly Saturday morning behind the next cold front. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 50 30 66 46 / 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 49 33 63 51 / 0 0 0 20 Destin 50 34 62 52 / 0 0 0 20 Evergreen 47 23 64 41 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 47 26 63 38 / 0 0 0 30 Camden 43 24 60 40 / 0 0 0 30 Crestview 48 22 63 44 / 0 0 0 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266.

FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ650-655.

Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ670-675.