textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Flash flooding remains a concern over the next several days, especially along and northwest of I-65, with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk continues through Memorial Day for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The risk increases to HIGH Monday night through at least mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

As the saying goes "Timing is everything". Unfortunately, forecaster confidence on the timing aspect concerning the onset and dissipation of the rounds of moderate to heavy rain is low. Not only has the timing between the various models (including CAMS) not improved, the spread between the various ensembles within the models is not helping matters. For example; we are finding the spread in 24 hour QPF as high as 2.5 inches, and the timing spread as much as 5 hours just in the near term. Run-to-run consistency has also presented challenges.

Most of the convective flare-ups have been driven by enhanced mid/upper ascent and not so much diurnally driven as we saw from the MCS that impacted our area late last night and early this morning. A continuous fetch of mid/upper impulses and shortwave energy will continue to move in a deep southwesterly flow over our region between the ridge to our east and the trough to our west, but again it is difficult to pin down the timing. Current radar is detecting only a smattering of showers and a storm or two, and we do expect this to continue through the evening hours. Looking at the current synoptic overview, there are at least two shortwaves upstream that we are monitoring. The first should bring another MCS that will move northeastward into our marine area by mid- evening, similar in nature to the last event. This complex of storms is expected to be slightly further east and affect mainly northwest Florida after midnight, although secondary band may reach coastal Alabama. By daybreak, numerous to widespread showers and storms will advance inland over our entire CWA during the morning hours, with coverage decreasing for our coastal communities in the afternoon. The second wave should bring another round of showers and storms into the forecast area after midnight Monday night and again spread northward to encompass the entire CWA through at least mid-afternoon Tuesday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through the remainder of the week as the synoptic pattern remains unchanged.

We will continue to focus our key messaging on the potential of flash flooding as much of our warning area remains under a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance on the Day 1-3 Excessive Rain Outlooks (ERO). Heavy rainfall is possible with additional widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, locally as high as 6 inches as PWATs hover around 2 inches. Instances of flash flooding will occur where banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms with high precipitation rates occur. As mentioned during yesterday's discussion, we will hold off on issuing any flash flood watches as recovery times between the events should allow for waters to recede, or until our confidence on placement of the banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms increases.

Beach Forecast - Risk for rip currents is MODERATE through Memorial Day, but quickly increases to a HIGH risk Monday night through at least the middle of the week. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Isolated to scattered convection may become numerous over interior areas this afternoon, then scattered convection is possible this evening. The coverage of convection is anticipated to increase late tonight into Monday morning. Gusty winds and IFR conditions will accompany the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening lower to IFR/MVFR overnight with similar conditions persisting into Monday morning. Southerly winds 5-10 knots become light and variable this evening, the a southeasterly flow at 5-10 knots develops Monday morning. /29

MARINE

Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the forecast. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet through Monday afternoon, increasing to 3 to 4 feet Monday night into midweek. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 82 71 82 / 60 70 50 90 Pensacola 74 82 73 82 / 70 70 60 80 Destin 74 83 74 83 / 60 70 60 70 Evergreen 70 82 69 82 / 50 70 40 90 Waynesboro 69 80 69 81 / 40 70 50 90 Camden 68 80 68 80 / 50 80 60 90 Crestview 71 84 70 84 / 50 70 60 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.