textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 134 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Moderate risk of rip currents today through Wednesday Night for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Increasing chances for showers and storms late this week into the weekend with daily risks for localized flooding from heavy rainfall and a few strong thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A strong surface ridge across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. will keep the pressure gradient tight across our area with moderate winds over the northern Gulf. These higher winds have resulted in a Moderate Risk of rip currents along our area beaches today, and this risk is expected to continue through midweek. After we receive the 12z RCMOS Probability guidance later this afternoon, we may have to increase the risk to High.

The combination of the surface ridge and an upper ridge over the region will keep our area rainfree tonight through Wednesday afternoon. This ridge will then breakdown as a shortwave passes over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River regions Wednesday night into Thursday. In addition, we are looking at a weak upper trough to form over the northwest Gulf, eastern Texas and Louisiana on Thursday and carry forward in the weekend. This will allow deep southerly to southwesterly flow to increase PWATs back to around 2.1-2.25", resulting in a substantial increase in precipitation through the remainder of the week. At time time we are expecting scattered to numerous showers and storms on Thursday (potentially widespread across our coastal communities), followed by numerous widespread coverage on Friday and Saturday. We can't rule out isolated instances of flooding the latter half of the week where storms possibly train or sit over the same areas for prolonged periods, with the greatest risk south of Highway 84.

High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday ranging from 89-94 degrees will lower a couple of degrees the rest of the week as cloud cover and rain chances increase. Low temperatures should remain in the lower to middle 70s through the forecast. /22

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday morning along with light easterly winds. /22

MARINE

Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Light to moderate easterly flow will persist through early Wednesday afternoon and small craft operators on the Gulf should exercise caution. Light onshore flow returns for the rest of the week into the weekend. Seas around 2 to 3 feet will subside to around 1 foot Thursday through the remainder of the forecast. Waterspouts are possible early each morning. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 74 91 74 89 / 0 10 20 80 Pensacola 77 91 77 89 / 0 10 40 70 Destin 77 91 78 88 / 0 10 40 70 Evergreen 72 94 72 93 / 0 0 10 60 Waynesboro 72 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 40 Camden 72 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 40 Crestview 73 92 73 91 / 0 0 10 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.