textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Elevated rain chances will be in place through the weekend and into early next week. Locally heavy rain possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Through Monday...Shortwave energy moves over the southwestern Conus, then Southern Plains before being deflected northeast by an upper ridge centered over the northern Caribbean. The pattern maintains a surface front stretching from southern Tx to the Tennessee River Valley. A soupy airmass is maintained south of the front( precipitable h20 values in the 1.8"-2.0" range) by a modest consistent onshore flow. The combination of a very moist airmass along with the stream of passing energy will help fire off daily showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms may become strong to severe, especially well northwest of I-65, with the passing energy bringing modest mid level height drops. Also, water issues will need to be monitored for, with the soupy airmass allowing for the thunderstorms to be efficient rainers. Any focusing boundaries developing, and the risk of water issues goes up. Better rain chances northwest of I-65 will continue to create a discontinuity in temperatures, with below seasonal norms low 80s northwest of I-65, near seasonal norms mid/upper 80s southeast. The soupy airmass and increased cloud cover, along with upper subsidence will keep low temperatures above seasonal norms, around 70 well inland, low to mid 70s along and closer to the coast.

Tuesday on, the upper ridge over the Caribbean hangs tough until a series of stronger shortwaves moving through a deepening upper low over the western Conus shifts the Caribbean high south. Temperatures around to a bit below seasonal norms and above seasonal PoPs continue. Even so, best rain amounts remain northwest of I-65 through the week.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches. Consistent onshore flow varies in strength, with onshore swell varying in response. The tidal cycle slowly decreases into the coming week, but the Rip Risk remains moderate to at times high through most of the period. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

General VFR conditions are expected to see drops to MVFR levels overnight, with pockets of rain gradually moving off. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday, with local drops in conditions to low end MVFR levels and gusty variable winds possible in the stronger storms. /16

MARINE

Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

High pressure to the east favors light, to at times moderate southeasterly flow this weekend and into early next week. Highest seas generally 2 to 3 feet. /10

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 71 84 71 82 / 20 90 80 90 Pensacola 73 84 74 83 / 20 60 50 80 Destin 73 84 73 84 / 20 40 40 70 Evergreen 69 86 69 84 / 20 80 40 90 Waynesboro 68 83 68 80 / 50 90 80 100 Camden 68 83 68 81 / 40 90 70 100 Crestview 70 88 70 86 / 10 60 30 80

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None. GM...None.