textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1253 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- HIGH rip current risk continues today through Sunday night for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Patchy dense fog is possible overnight into the pre-dawn hours over the next several nights.

- Slow progression of the storms on Sunday morning could lead to localized flooding concerns across our southernmost counties, mainly in urban areas if storms can train over the same locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Scattered showers and storms this afternoon give way to a line of thunderstorms this evening into the overnight hours that slowly progresses across the area from northwest to southeast. This line will likely be weakening as it moves across the area, with current expectations continuing to be for gusty winds to 40mph and locally heavy rainfall. Weak shear around 20 knots combined with around 1,000j/kg of CAPE should help support a few stronger storms in the most robust parts of the line. This line will reach the coast prior to daybreak Sunday, moving offshore sometime early Sunday morning. There remains some signal for heavier rainfall with this, but the more progressive nature of the line should limit rainfall totals to around 1 to 3 inches. This will limit any concerns for flash flooding unless we get some form of training over urban areas. We may manage to get enough instability in place in the wake of this for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Monday will likely feature a few showers and storms across the area, but most locations will likely stay dry.

The aforementioned line of storms should keep fog prospects pretty low for most locations tonight, with patchy, locally dense fog possible prior to the lines passage. Best chances for fog will be confined to the coast as sea fog overspreads the marine waters this evening into the overnight hours.

Beach hazards continue into Sunday as a High Risk for rip currents remains in place for all of our local beaches. The rip current risk is anticipated to gradually diminish to a Moderate risk for Monday and a Low risk for Tuesday, however in advance of the next potent system the rip current risk will likely increase back to a High risk Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Dry weather continues to be anticipated for Tuesday under the influence of upper ridging aloft. There is an increasing signal for the potential of severe weather as we head into the Wednesday and Wednesday night timeframe. CIPS analog guidance is fairly robust on severe weather potential across much of the southeastern U.S., which makes sense given the overall trough evolution and anticipation for strong wind shear, ample instability, and good forcing overhead. There remain questions on timing of the best forcing over the forecast area, with some guidance bringing the system through during the day and others during the night. If it's during the day, a greater threat could evolve with more instability in place. If it's during the night, the threat may be tempered somewhat with generally weaker instability. It remains something to monitor as we continue through the weekend into early next week. MM/25

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MVFR to VFR cigs will continue through the remainder of the day with a light southerly wind. Cigs and visbys will quickly decrease to IFR and LIFR this evening as a line of storms approach from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area after midnight and slowly weaken as it approaches the coast. VLIFR to LIFR cigs will accompany the storms before clearing during the mid-morning hours tomorrow. Winds will remain southerly and light outside of any storms. BB-8

MARINE

Issued at 1253 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow continues through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Dense fog remains possible near the coastline for the next several nights. At least Small Craft conditions are possible by Wednesday night into Thursday night as winds turn northerly, with the potential for gale force gusts. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 66 76 65 82 / 60 70 20 20 Pensacola 67 74 66 78 / 20 60 20 10 Destin 64 72 65 75 / 10 50 20 10 Evergreen 63 75 62 84 / 40 70 30 30 Waynesboro 65 74 63 82 / 70 90 20 40 Camden 64 72 62 81 / 60 80 20 50 Crestview 62 76 62 84 / 20 60 20 20

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ631-632-650.

Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ634>636.

Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ655.