textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 642 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. The greatest hazard will be heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Heat and humidity will continue through next week. Peak heat indices will range from around 95-100 this weekend, increasing to around 103-110 by the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Only change made to the forecast this morning was bumping up our rip current risk to Moderate for Sunday based on the latest RCMOS probabilistic data. This increase likely was due to forecasted onshore winds being stronger than previously thought. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track as a surface low is beginning to form over our local marine waters. This developing low helped to spark some overnight showers and storms which impacted coastal counties. Additional storms should develop throughout the day today; greatest coverage is expected to be along our coastal counties. /96

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

An upper longwave ridge-trough pattern residing over the U.S. will breakdown through the weekend. Although the eastern CONUS trough will be lifting northeastward, the center of an upper cutoff low pressure area forming over Alabama on Saturday will slowly retrograde westward across southern Louisiana on Sunday. A weak surface low-level pressure area is expected to form just south of the Alabama coast by daybreak today, and force a surface boundary southward to the coast. This low will then migrate southward through tonight and then westward leaving the surface boundary to meander across our forecast area through the weekend as it competes with daily seabreeze development.

This will keep the higher rain chances (numerous showers and storms) confined to the coast today with periods of heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flash flooding, with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected across our inland areas. The inland convection will dissipate by mid-evening, but showers and a few storms will linger along the coast tonight as surface low- level pressure area provides some convergence across that area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday, followed by an increase to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday as a stronger seabreeze pushes inland and deep tropical moisture is advected into the region on the backside of the upper low. A typical summertime diurnal pattern will return next week with daytime isolated to scattered storms expected to develop each day.

High temperatures will be near normal (around 90 degrees) through the weekend before increasing to above normal Monday through the remainder of the forecast. These higher temperatures when combined with the high humidity will result in heat indices to rise into the 103 to 110 range next week. Lows will remain slightly above normal through the entire forecast, ranging from the lower 70s inland to around 75 degrees along the coast.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through the remainder of the month. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Except for a few localized spots dipping down to MVFR this morning, VFR conditions are currently in place across much of the area at issuance time. Overall, these conditions should remain prevalent throughout the period. Another round of scattered showers and storms is expected to impact coastal counties starting late this morning into the early afternoon hours. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. /96

MARINE

Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Light and variable winds will be in place through this evening. A light to moderate southeasterly flow will develop for the weekend and into early next week. By Tuesday and into midweek, light winds will follow a typical diurnal cycle, with northeasterly flow at night and southeasterly flow during the day. Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected through the weekend, becoming isolated to scattered by next week. Expect higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 89 71 89 72 / 40 10 40 30 Pensacola 86 74 85 75 / 60 30 50 50 Destin 85 74 84 75 / 60 50 60 60 Evergreen 89 68 89 69 / 40 20 40 10 Waynesboro 92 70 93 71 / 20 10 20 10 Camden 91 70 89 71 / 30 20 30 10 Crestview 87 69 86 69 / 50 30 50 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.