textproduct: Mobile/Pensacola

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Rain chances increase through the remainder of the week, especially over the western half of the forecast area.

- Localized patchy dense fog will be possible over the next few nights.

UPDATE

Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Forecast across the area remains on track. Patchy to areas of fog have developed east of I-65 this morning, with some patches locally dense reducing visibility to a quarter mile. Given the spotty coverage of dense fog and anticipation for it to lift over the next couple hours, have opted to not go forth with any dense fog advisories at this time. MM/25

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Light southerly surface winds will occur today through the upcoming weekend as a surface ridge remains intact across the southeast states and northeast Gulf. Atmospheric moisture will remain moderate with PWATs generally ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches through Saturday. A continuous stream of upper mini- shortwaves moving over the lower Mississippi river in a deep southwesterly flow will result in a steady increase in shower and thunderstorm activity through the remainder of the week, especially during the daytime hours with decreasing stability from diurnal heating. The highest chance of precipitation occurring today and Friday will along and west of I- 65, and then north of I-10 on Saturday. We still do not anticipate any organized severe weather, but some of the stronger storms will have the potential of producing gusty surface winds and frequent lightning. In addition, some of the slower moving storms will be capable of producing localized nuisance flooding.

The light southerly wind flow mentioned earlier persisting all week does maintain some boundary-layer moisture across our area that should result in patchy late night/early morning fog over the course of the week. High temperatures inland will reach the middle to upper 80s over the next three days, with a few localized spots reaching the 90 degree mark east of I-65. Apparent temps in the middle 90s are possible on Saturday across much of the area. Lows however will remain steady through Saturday with upper 60s to lower 70s inland and middle 70s along the coast. These lows will be about 6 to 11 degrees above normal. /22

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings remain prevalent across much of the area this morning. Along and east of the I-65 corridor, patchy to areas of fog, some locally dense, are reducing flight category to LIFR and locally VLIFR at times. Expect fog to lift over the next couple hours along with ceilings across the area back to VFR flight category by mid morning. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon, mainly west of the I-65 corridor, potentially reducing flight category at times. Winds are expected to remain out of the southeast around 5 to 10 knots today. MM/25

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through this weekend into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Mobile 85 72 83 72 / 40 50 80 40 Pensacola 84 74 84 74 / 10 50 70 40 Destin 84 75 83 74 / 10 30 60 40 Evergreen 87 70 85 70 / 40 30 70 40 Waynesboro 84 70 83 70 / 70 60 90 60 Camden 84 70 83 70 / 50 30 80 60 Crestview 89 71 86 71 / 10 20 60 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.