textproduct: Melbourne

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Afternoon and evening storms are forecast, especially across the southern counties; frequent lightning, gusty winds 45-55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

- Heat and humidity continue with peak heat index values 100-107F into the weekend; visitors and residents are encouraged to stay cool and well-hydrated.

- Scattered rain and storms are forecast each afternoon and evening with coverage increasing into next week; strong storms and localized flooding possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Today... A surface ridge axis in place across south Florida, gradually lifts northward and into central Florida. A wave of locally higher moisture lifts in vicinity of the ridge axis. This should generally favor scattered to numerous (50-60%) shower and storm development along portions of the Treasure Coast and across Okeechobee county today. Further north, the forecast remains rather persistent with the development of the east and west coast sea breezes. Coverage mostly remains scattered in vicinity of I-4 this afternoon with a late increase in storm coverage as a sea breeze collision occurs. Although, shear profiles remain weak, high surface instability and moisture could allow for wet downbursts with localized wind gusts up to 55 mph. Slow moving storms could also allow for localized rainfall accumulations of 2-3" which could result in ponding of water on roadways or minor flooding of urban or low lying areas.

High temperatures remain in the low 90s across the south where cloud cover and rain chances will be highest. Further north, highs reach the mid 90s. Muggy conditions will produce peak heat index values between 102-106F, and there is a Moderate to Major heat risk across much of the Orlando metro today.

Saturday-Sunday... The surface ridge axis gradually retreats as weak troughing builds offshore the southeast U.S. coast into Sunday. Increasingly humid conditions and continued rain chances (~60%) are forecast through the period. Temperatures hold slightly above normal this weekend, ranging the low to mid 90s. When factoring in humidity, maximum apparent temperatures are expected to climb between 102-107F, and conditions could near Heat Advisory criteria. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect individuals without effective cooling and adequate hydration. To reduce risk of heat stress, outdoor weekend activities should be limited to the morning hours ahead of peak heating while still incorporating frequent breaks in an air conditioned building or the shade.

Some relief from the heat may come in the form of afternoon rain chances each day. Weak synoptic flow should allow the development of the east and west coast sea breeze each day, helping to kick start showers and storms. However, peak coverage (60%) remains favored in the late afternoon and evening as mesoscale boundaries interact and a sea breeze collision occurs. Ridging above 700mb will generally limit development of well organized strong storms due to weak shear and warming temperatures aloft. However, favorable low level lapse rates should still be supportive enough for strong updrafts which can mix down dry air aloft (DCAPE > 1,000 J/kg). Therefore, an isolated strong storm threat remains. Primary hazards associated with isolated stronger storms include wind gusts up to 55mph and lightning strikes. Minimal steering flow will lead to slow and erratic storm movement. A localized heavy rainfall threat continues where repeated rounds of slow moving storms may occur.

Monday-Thursday... A weak wave of mid level vorticity lifts northwestward from the Bahamas and over the Florida peninsula. At the surface, global models have hinted at a broad area of low pressure developing in vicinity of Florida, and a wet pattern looks to set up from Monday onward. The current forecast calls for rain chances around 70% through the extended period, and could see gradual trends higher as confidence increases in time. A saturated air column with PWATs greater than 2" could fuel a flooding rainfall threat, but there are some significant model inconsistencies in daily QPF output that will need to be monitored with future forecast updates. While widespread totals are uncertain, more localized daily instances of 2- 4" will be possible across areas which receive multiple rounds of showers and storms. This could result in ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of urban or low lying areas.

Temperatures fall a few degrees into next week with increasing rain chances, and highs generally range the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon. Lows temperatures hold steady in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A surface ridge axis remains in place across the local waters late this week before retreating eastward early next week. Light southwest winds generally hold, backing south to southeast along the coast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Seas of 2-3 ft gradually subside, becoming widely 2 ft by Sunday. Scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast through the weekend before a more unsettled pattern takes over next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Mainly a VFR forecast, except where TSRA impacts terminals this afternoon. A rogue SHRA cannot be ruled out before 12z, especially at the coast. Light, southerly (variable at times) winds will prevail inland today, turning SSE at the immediate coast as the ECSB tries to develop.

SSW flow may keep the breeze pinned closer to the coast until 17z-20z TSRA sends outflow inland. This, plus an anticipated sea breeze collision, will spark additional SHRA/TSRA inland. Farther north at DAB, TSRA is forecast after 18z along the ECSB, transitioning inland toward SFB by 20-22z. Wind gusts of 35 knots or greater are possible, along with brief MVFR/IFR conds. Activity quickly dissipates after 01z Sat. VCTS remains for all sites (adjusted timing slightly) with TEMPOs likely needed, perhaps by the 12z TAF package.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

DAB 93 76 93 76 / 40 20 50 10 MCO 95 76 95 76 / 60 20 60 20 MLB 91 76 91 76 / 60 10 50 10 VRB 91 73 91 73 / 60 10 50 10 LEE 93 76 94 76 / 50 10 60 10 SFB 95 76 95 76 / 60 10 60 10 ORL 95 77 95 77 / 60 20 60 20 FPR 90 73 91 73 / 60 10 60 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. AM...None.